Here we go again-Ukraine once again pt2

[mapuc]

I create this new thread because I know that sooner or later Neal will ask us to close the old thread and create a new.


I'm going to bump it now and then to keep it on first page.

It's up to Neal and/or Jim to decide when the old thread shall be locked.
(this text ^ will be changed)

Markus

[Dargo]

I create this new thread because I know that sooner or later Neal will ask us to close the old thread and create a new.


I'm going to bump it now and then to keep it on first page.

It's up to Neal and/or Jim to decide when the old thread shall be locked.
(this text ^ will be changed)

MarkusWhy?

[mapuc]

Why?

Why !?

Do you mean why Neal or Jim close the original thread then it has to do with bandwidth.
Or
Why I created this new part 2 thread.
I've wanted to be the owner of the next chapter of our Ukraine discussion too.

Markus

[Dargo]

Why !?

Do you mean why Neal or Jim close the original thread then it has to do with bandwidth.
Or
Why I created this new part 2 thread.
I've wanted to be the owner of the next chapter of our Ukraine discussion too.

MarkusOk that answers my question

[Skybird]

Good idea, Markus, sooner or later Neal would have done it, too. 12 thousand posts, 800 pages qualify for that, I assume.

Reason is that the posting counter of a thread somehow negatively affects the traffic burden. Neal has then locked an old thread and opened a successive one severla time sin the past.

Maybe just lock the other thread, Neal, Jim?

[Jimbuna]

Okay, I have locked the thread on this single occasion but please be advised this is not the norm. Neal usually informs me when he wants me to lock threads.

Carry on.

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WK-qONRCR98

[mapuc]

Russian Ka-52 Alligator attack helicopter was destroyed by a Ukrainian Stugna guided missile. This helicopter is vulnerable as it has to guide its missiles all the way to the target and while its doing so it can’t move.

https://twitter.com/albir2024/status/1682110960801140736

Markus

[Jimbuna]

It would appear the war criminal continues to carry on the same way he has previously.

A fair assessment below.

Putin exploiting war crimes loophole to ‘bully and blackmail' the West over grain deal

Vladimir Putin is exploiting an "anomaly" in international humanitarian law to "bully and blackmail" Ukraine and its allies, as well as the global south, a leading war crimes prosecutor has told Express.co.uk.

The Russian autocrat declined to extend the Black Sea grain deal on Monday (July 17) when it came up for renewal and on Thursday (July 20), his Ministry of Defence said that any vessels crossing the "grain corridor" would be considered as carrying military cargo, while they would treat the country of its flag as a participant in the conflict on the Ukrainian side.

Russia's deputy foreign minister Sergei Vershinin clarified this warning on Friday (July 21), saying they now viewed the Black Sea as a "zone of increased military danger" and would inspect all vessels crossing the area.

Despite assurances from Putin to provide poor countries in Africa with free grain - nations such as Sudan, Somalia, Ethiopia and Kenya are reliant on Ukrainian shipments - experts maintain that this blockade "will undoubtedly lead to civilians in the global south literally starving".

But while the repercussions of their blockade will be devastating, unless Russia fires at foreign vessels they will not be found guilty of war crimes or crimes against humanity, according to a prosecutor documenting Russian war crimes.

Blockades are "on the face of them lawful, even if they impact civilians", Wayne Jordash, a British lawyer with more than 20 years in the fields of international human rights and humanitarian law told Express.co.uk.

They are "anomalies" in international humanitarian law, dating back to a time when it was "acceptable to starve civilians to maintain a siege", he said.

While Russia's aggressive missile strikes on Ukrainian ports in the past week, destroying more than 60,000 tons of grain and wrecking farm storage buildings, is a crime of war by virtue of its targeting of civilian areas with no military value, Mr Jordash said there was no legal recourse to pursue charges for its concurrent blockade.

If they simply "stop and search" ships, that would amount to a "legitimate" move in terms of international humanitarian law, he said.

Notwithstanding this legal loophole, Olya Korbut, who specialises in monitoring Russian militarisation of the Black Sea, said Russia was trying to "bully" and "blackmail" the Collective West with its blockade.

She told Express.co.uk: "While trying to absolutely destroy the Ukrainian economy and replacing Ukraine in the world top-five grain exporters, as well as blackmailing the Collective West with food security issues, Russia also bullies other countries in its usual manner."

Speaking on Thursday night, she noted that Turkey and Greece, with more than 70 percent of the share of vessels in the "grain corridor", were particularly susceptible to Russia's bloody gambit.

Putin is hoping to force the West to soften its sanctions on Russia, particularly with regard to its exporting of ammonia and fertilisers, formerly included in the Black Sea dea, by pressing on countries such as Turkey, as well as taking advantage of the needs of impoverished regions in the global south reliant on Ukrainian grain.

On Friday, this tactic showed the first signs of paying off. As the Russian Defense Ministry said their navy conducted drills that simulated action to seal off a section of the Black Sea, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan called on Western countries to address Russia's demands to restore the grain corridor.

"Russia has some expectations. If these are overcome, Russia is in favour of the active work of this grain corridor," said Mr Erdogan, who helped negotiate the deal.

He said "Western countries need to take action on this issue" or risk raising global food prices, increasing famine and unleashing new waves of migration.

In no uncertain terms, Mr Erdogan's comments evinced the claims that Putin was, indeed, "blatantly extorting" Ukraine, the West and the global south, as one former US ambassador told Express.co.uk.

More concerningly, though, they also showed how quickly these tactics could affect action; just four days after Putin pulled out of the deal, the responsibility for Russia's devastation already appears to be shifting.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/putin-exploiting-war-crimes-loophole-to-bully-and-blackmail-the-west-over-grain-deal/ar-AA1ec6JT?ocid=mailsignout&pc=U591&cvid=4f069f9e930a4e5fb0e3aa39cbc5bbcb&ei=20

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KhNUMyC-mcU&t=4s

[Jeff-Groves]

It would appear the war criminal continues to carry on the same way he has previously.

A fair assessment below.
I'd say he's in league with Camillia Harris to reduce the World Population.
:har:

[Skybird]

While some insist on the truth of the claim that Russia has assembled 100,000 troops and 900 tanks in the East to form a new front and others put this counting in doubt, it is confirmed that, as CNN put it, "Russian forces push along "almost entire front line" in Ukraine’s eastern Luhansk region".

Things do not run good for Ukraine. My impression definitely is that it gets worse and worse. The Russians have used the time Germany and other superhesitent countries have given them to build some formidable defences. Currently Russia forces the Ukrainians to play the game at Russia's terms, not the other way around.

Western production of artillery shells still runs slow, in some producing countries still seems to stay bogged own. Thats unbelievable. Unbelievable. I think quite some politicians still have not heard the starting shot(s). Where the will to improv exists, it gets then tackled by global shortages of certain supplies needed for producing these rounds.

[Catfish]

^ Which is why Ukraine should strike right into the heart of the russian Rodina.
As long as Russia is allowed to amass military forces just behind the border which will never be harmed ...
Hell i wonder why NATO is not getting involved more. So Russia is threatening with nuclear war? This works from both sides. Do not let him Putin be the one to escalate all the time. Take the initiative. The way NATO behaves right now is nothing else than chickensh!t.

[mapuc]

While some insist on the truth of the claim that Russia has assembled 100,000 troops and 900 tanks in the East to form a new front and others put this counting in doubt, it is confirmed that, as CNN put it, "Russian forces push along "almost entire front line" in Ukraine’s eastern Luhansk region".

Things do not run good for Ukraine. My impression definitely is that it gets worse and worse. The Russians have used the time Germany and other superhesitent countries have given them to build some formidable defences. Currently Russia forces the Ukrainians to play the game at Russia's terms, not the other way around.

Western production of artillery shells still runs slow, in some producing countries still seems to stay bogged own. Thats unbelievable. Unbelievable. I think quite some politicians still have not heard the starting shot(s). Where the will to improv exists, it gets then tackled by global shortages of certain supplies needed for producing these rounds.


Looks like Ukraine could lose the war in two ways

1. Lack of manpower
and/or
2. Lack of material.

How eager is USA and NATO in preventing Russia from winning the war in Ukraine ?

Markus

[Skybird]

^ Which is why Ukraine should strike right into the heart of the russian Rodina.


^ With what...???

Colonel Reisner, whom I still appreciate for his sober, cold-blooded realistic assessment, was ion RBB and expressed his opinion of that the Ukraine ahs been trappoed in a war of attrition nin the beast, solowly loosing to Russia, and that the Eastern front is really not working well for the,m but quite wel for the Russians. The Russians advance. He also detected a chnage in Western moral that causes it to slowly turn away form Ukraine. I prediced lasta autumn that this would happen sooner or later in the secondhalf of this year - and the earlier the longer one has to wait for Ukrainian successes.

To be honest I think we currently witness a phase that amounts to a preliminary decision for the outcome of the war. The offensive is simply not igniting. And it is losing the war for Ukraine in the sense that ultimately Russia will be able to keep large parts of the conquered territories and the Ukrainian economy will have suffered absolutely devastating damage from which the country will not recover for generations. There are calculations that show that Ukraine will lose a quarter of its population to death and emigration. A quarter! In an already overaged society.

And has anyone looked at the figures of Ukraine's public finances in recent times? Devastating. Absolutely hopeless.

Frankly, I am increasingly inclined to think that Ukraine would lose the war even if it managed to expel all Russians from all occupied territories. Its financial and demographic backbone in the long run is either already broken - or about to be.

Russia (not Putin- Russia!) will not let up. And the West will not deliver and will not do what is needed: it cannot, and it will not. Ukraine is dependent on the West, for better or worse. Washington's interests are not Kyiv's. They never have been.

Nobody wants to hear this, the show of illusions must go on. But I stick to it nevertheless.

3-4 brigades still held back, but their artillery deployed already. I increasingly think these do not matter, due to the terrain. It mercilessly favours the Russians in their role, favours their chosen style in this battle: artillery, missiles, gunships, CAS. Little to no cover for the advancing Ukrainians and mechanised forces. Too few mine clearing and bridging equipment (which to identify and kill the russians apparently have become cunning experts). Mines, artillery delivered mines where yesterday there have been none.

[Skybird]

How eager is USA and NATO in preventing Russia from winning the war in Ukraine ?

Not to the extent that would be necessary.

That could change, theoretically, but I think it will not.

[mapuc]

Not to the extent that would be necessary.

That could change, theoretically, but I think it will not.

Why I asked is some of your comments and Bidens comment
"We are with you(Ukraine) All the way"
which he has said on several occasions

Markus

[Skybird]

My general advise: NEVER bet a penny on what a politician says.
Country, political system, party, name do not matter. Never waste that penny. Betting it will always be a waste.

[Catfish]

The west is too easily impressed by Putler's empty nuclear threats.
Ukraine does not have the weapons to strike into Russia, Nato has.
Just give a few to Ukraine.

@Skybird So you say they will not. Then I wonder what the west's or the US's strategy is? Let Ukraine die a slow death? Would be a quite perfidious strategy but even if, who would that serve? Not the US, not NATO, not Ukraine.
You will not bleed Russia dry with this.. "strategy".

[mapuc]

My general advise: NEVER bet a penny on what a politician says.
Country, political system, party, name do not matter. Never waste that penny. Betting it will always be a waste.

I guess you're right and the White House whistle will later play another tune

US interest is in Asia.

Europe have to learn to stand on its own.

Markus

[mapuc]

Ukraine does not have the weapons to strike into Russia, Nato has.
Just give a few to Ukraine.

Read some hrs ago on Twitter that USA will/thinking about give Ukraine some longrange MLRS
Range more than 500 km
(If I remember correctly)

Markus

[Skybird]

Washington slowly boils a frog. That'S its main interest. Not so much Ukraine.


People overlook that both Europe and America mistrust Kyiv, for its corruption, unsorted innerpolitical problems, financial aid disappearing in dark channels , the oligarchs' influence. This was the case before the war, and has not changed much due to the war. Its also one of several reasons why they do not hurry to get Ukraine into NATO.


Add to this that Berlin and Paris do not want to see the balance of power in Europe shifting from Paris and Berlin to Warsaw and Kyiv.



No, we are all not a united happy family. Kyiv of course is desperate, they play this "we are family" tune and card and show day in, day out. Its understandable, what else should they do? Singing "All is lost, everybody runs and is on his own"...?



I think the enthusiasm for a total Ukraine victory in Western and Central and Southern Europe and maybe also in Washington is surprisingly limited, more limited than the meida make people believe. But one uses the opportunity to weaken the Russians, of course.



You don't win wars by glossing over the facts you don't like.

[mapuc]

Despite these problems with corruption etc before and even now, I wish Ukraine will kick Russia out of their country.
Russia had no right to invade Ukraine wasn't a threat to Moscow

Wishes are one thing reality an another.

Kerch Bridge:

I'm gonna clap my hands the day the bridge has been destroyed- 50-100 meters of both lane and rail track destroyed.

Markus

[Skybird]

@Skybird So you say they will not. Then I wonder what the west's or the US's strategy is?
Boiling the frog, slowly, so that he does not jump out of the water while he still has time. Weakening Russia as much as possible to have a weak Russia and a stable Europe in their back when they turn away to face China.

Let Ukraine die a slow death? States have no friends, states have interests.

But I think some in Washington also indeed want to have Ukriane "winning". But they are basing on illusions. They think if they deliver this or that wonder weapon, then a military miracle will happen all by itself. But the quantity does not support that view, its simply is too little they give, still. War is won by big numbers, if your numbers do not support your effort, you loose. Possible that Washington in parts is in panic mode seeing what has come of the offensive, they now want to speed up the delivery of F-16s. Another wonder weapon that should do the trick. But it seems that the ukrainians fell back to running military operations the Sovjet way, its no combined arms they try to run anymore, no simultaneous attack of all weapon branches, but they get send one after the other, and they have suicidal deficits especially in air defences.

Russia always tried to compensate lacking quality with overwhelming quantity, I have hammered home this since over a year. And you know what? It works for them. They also always were an artillery-heavy army, more than any other army int he world. And we see that they again were right with that assessment.

In chess it does not matter how many pawns you sacrifice and how many figures you lose if in the end you checkmate the opposing king. Thats the only thing that counts. But the West is busy with counting pawns, and finding supertheoretical constructions to excuse why it ignores this simpel truth.

Would be a quite perfidious strategy but even if, who would that serve? Not the US, not NATO, not Ukraine.Paris and BVerlin, as I often said, do not ewant the baölanc eof power shiofting from these two to Warsaw and Kyiv, which would happen if ukriane wins and enters the eU and NATO. Washington wants to boilö the Russian frog as much as possible. All are concerned about the Russian nuclear threat. Well, I am , too. But I come to totally different conclusion than them. We shall not be too pressing in trying to checkmate the enemy king: Putin.

You will not bleed Russia dry with this.. "strategy".My words exactly. Since over one year. Tell them. Not me. ;) But I must ask (again): where should more material come from? More artillery rounds? Air defences? To cover that long a front? The Bundeswehr has enough tank and artillery rounds for two days of warfare of the inetnbsity we see in Ukraine. Does anyone think other European nations like Britain, France, Italy are so much better off? A bit maybe, but not that much more in ammo reserves they have.

The West is weak. Weak in military numbers. Weak in determination. Weak in courage. Its big in words, financial greed, opportunism. We have superior tehcnolgocla wepaons, but we do nto have them in the quantity we need, since we fell to the illusion that technologically advanced weapons were not needed in higher numbers. That was wrong. And dumb ammunition we have declared almost useless, almost. We do not need atllerywhen w ehave drones and loitering ammuntions and all that, right? No, not right, but wrong again. But we worry about ecology-friendly ways of fueling tanks and jets.

There is no magic spell to cure this from one day to the next. But there seems to also be no will, in Germany at least, to change this in longer terms, nothing but Scholzian smoke screens behind which the little irrelevant dwarf can hide from his responsibility, and train his grinning muscles.

In last december, Colonel Reisner warned that Russia tries to provoke and wants to force Ukraine to attack. Thats the warfare that favours Russia: fixed frontlines, war of attrition, artillery-heavy warfighting, wide open plains, air superiority over the front. Nothing better could have happend than Ukraine starting to attack. Ukraine on the other hand was increasingly under pressure to launch the offensive. Time and season of the year was runnign out, diplomatic patience was running thin, the West demanded to see results for its delivered material. What is clear by now is this: it nevertheless was too early, and maybe should have not gotten started this year. Individual training, doctrinal training of formations for combined warfare, ammunition stockpiles, number of tanks, preparatory efforts - it all left much to be desired, but in the end Ukraine was not given another choice. Any further delays also would have resulted in the Russian having dug in themsleves even deeper.

Back then already Reisner had doubts that the offensive planned for later the year could be successful with the material delivered and the tight time tables set or expected back then. He says it time and again: It's no use trying to gloss over the situation. What we have been doing so far is simply not enough.

We have overestimated the quality of the Russian army. But we underestimate the relevance of its big numbers. And I think Putin living or killed has no real relevance here, if he is deleted, Russia still will be what it always was and will produce another typical Russian Tzar-like Führer like Putin and so many others before him have been.

We are probably witnessing a pre-decisive battle, and its outcome is likely to join the chain of general symptoms that illustrate the fall of the West, of Europe at least: its cultural degeneration, its slow march into global irrelevance. Or as I often summarized: Rome is burning. Every single house is on fire. Our politicians act as if nothing were wrong.

Thats not what you want to hear. But its the only thing you will get to hear from me. Things are not going well down there. The desperate explaining on TV that the offensive just moves slow because they have changed tactics (and indeed have slighty reduced their losses, it seems), I do not buy.

It still could be won. But preconditions for that would be a total and dramatic change of Western policy and the willingness for a dramatic rising of stakes, as well as a total change in inner politics, away from this mad green deal industry madness and excessive social wellfare industry towards war production. And I cannot see that happening. Rome is in flames.

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-bcR6eUoc8I

[Jimbuna]

Possibly the worst source of news on the subject is the HINDUSTAN TIMES but at least they point out the traitor within the NATO ranks, namely Hungary.....expel them.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OLmj2V88ST4

[Reece]

Possibly fake news Jim, did a search on the web and found nothing! :hmmm:

[Jimbuna]

Possibly fake news Jim, did a search on the web and found nothing! :hmmm:

Hard to tell for certain there being that much disinformation about but personally speaking, I mistrust Hungary as much as Russia and as previously stated, the Hindustan Times I don't trust much either.

[mapuc]

Hard to tell for certain there being that much disinformation about but personally speaking, I mistrust Hungary as much as Russia and as previously stated, the Hindustan Times I don't trust much either.

I also made a search and found these articles

This one is more than two month old

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/19/hungary-steps-up-threat-to-block-eu-weapons-aid-for-ukraine-peter-szijjarto

This one is from end of June

https://global.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202306/28/WS649b85f6a310bf8a75d6c08f.html

Even in our tv news there has been talked about Hungary blocking for aid to Ukraine.

Markus

[Jimbuna]

Not even the House of God is safe from the Orcs and this is not the first time either.

At least one person has been killed and 19 more injured in fresh Russian missile strikes on the Ukrainian port city of Odesa, officials have said.

Regional Governor Oleh Kiper said 14 people were hospitalised in the blasts, including four children.

The historical Transfiguration Cathedral was badly damaged by the strikes, the city council said.

Moscow has been launching near constant attacks on Odesa since it withdrew from a landmark grain deal on Monday.

"Odesa: another night attack of the monsters," Mr Kiper wrote on Telegram. He added that six residential buildings - including several apartment buildings - were destroyed by the strikes.

Odesa's military administration said that the Transfiguration Cathedral of the Moscow-linked Ukrainian Orthodox Church (UOC) was severely damaged.

The building is Odesa's largest Orthodox church and was consecrated in 1809. It was demolished by the Soviet Union in 1939, before being re-built in 2003.

In a video posted to social media by the city council, Mayor Gennadiy Trukhanov could be seen walking through rubble inside the church.

Andriy Palchuk, the archdeacon of the Cathedral, said he was the first person to arrive at the scene.

"The destruction is enormous; half of the cathedral was left without a roof, and the central piles and foundation were destroyed," he said.

"All the windows and stucco moulding were blown out. There was a fragmentary fire, the part where icons and candles are sold in the church caught fire. It was all on fire, burning."

The UN's cultural agency, Unesco, has repeatedly urged Russia to cease attacks on Odesa. The city's historic centre was designated an endangered World Heritage by the organisation earlier this year, despite Russian opposition.

But in an update posted to Facebook, Ukraine's southern command said Russia had targeted the Odesa region with at least five different types of missiles.

The head of Ukraine's presidential office, Andriy Yermak, repeated calls for more missiles and defence systems after the latest attack on Odesa.

"This is the undisguised terror of a peaceful city," Mr Yermak wrote on Telegram. "The enemy must be deprived of the opportunity to attack civilians and infrastructure."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66281027

[Skybird]

Not even the House of God is safe from the Orcs and this is not the first time either.



The Russian nationalistic patriarch of the Russian orthodox slave suppression hierarchy no doubt will like to hear this. The Russian and Ukrainian orthodox churches recently split. The Russian one will not forgive that the Ukrainian one tries to evade her claim of ownership and go independent ways.

[Jimbuna]

And another one bites the dust....these 'coincidences' are becoming more common place with each passing day :)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v-hIUyY25qM

[tonschk]

UKRAINE’S SUMMER OFFENSIVE ENDS IN DISASTER

https://www.bitchute.com/video/AGF1ZYZE8sBD/

https://www.hostpic.org/images/2307231843420104.png (https://www.hostpic.org/view.php?filename=2307231843420104.png)

[mapuc]

Here's a more nuanced view on the matter

According to a report in the New York Times, Ukraine is rethinking its strategy after losing some 20% of its weapons early in its counteroffensive.

https://www.euronews.com/2023/07/16/nyt-around-20-of-ukraines-weapons-lost-in-first-weeks-of-counteroffensive

Losing 20 % isn't exactly a disaster

Markus

[ET2SN]

And another one bites the dust....these 'coincidences' are becoming more common place with each passing day :)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v-hIUyY25qM



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g1Sq1Nr58hM

:Kaleun_Cheers:

[Skybird]

Losing 20 % isn't exactly a disaster

Markus
Depends on what you got for those 20% - and what still lies ahead of you.


Getting for those 20+% less than 10% of the distance to the Asov Sea's coast, and at the time the NYT gave that report still not being in contact with the first main defence line does not sound exactly like a steal.

[Dargo]

Ukraine recalibrates counteroffensive: no major attack, but focus on attrition
Ukraine has changed the strategy of its counteroffensive in the south and east of the country. According to military analysts, the army is now focusing particularly on depleting Russian forces rather than a large, concentrated attack in one place along the front. The strategy is reflected in repeated attacks far behind the front lines. The plans were necessarily adjusted because of the large losses at the beginning of the counteroffensive, which started in early June. "In the first weeks, troops moved forward, but this was accompanied by large losses," said security expert Maria Avdeeva of the Ukrainian European Expert Association. According to The New York Times, some 20 percent of deployed weapons were damaged or destroyed, including Western tanks and armoured vehicles. This was offset by fairly limited terrain gains: about 300 square kilometres.

Ukraine is operating more cautiously than Russia, observes Brigadier General Han Bouwmeester, professor of military operations at the Netherlands Defence Academy. "Ukraine is careful with their people and equipment. You don't want to send them indiscriminately into a minefield." In the first weeks of the counteroffensive, Ukrainian forces have been looking for weaknesses in the defences, but there do not seem to be any; the lines are proving strong for the Ukrainian army, which lacks air superiority and faces a looming ammunition shortage. "Because Ukraine had to wait for arms deliveries, Russia was able to put its defences in order," says Avdeeva. "Multiple lines have been set up and there are a lot of mines."

Mines in particular make a major breakthrough difficult. Ukrainian engineer troops have insufficient resources to make their way through the fields full of explosives. According to The Washington Post, Kyiv has received about 15 percent of the requested demining resources from the West. In the meantime, Ukraine is shifting its focus to "wearing down" and exhausting enemy forces. This is done, for example, with its own troop movements, says former Army Commander in Chief Mart de Kruif. "Ukraine has shorter logistics lines, so it can move troops faster from south to north. Russia has to do more work to move units, and that works out." More important are the targeted attacks behind the front, Avdeeva observes. Ammunition depots, supply lines and training grounds have been targets of numerous attacks in recent weeks. "What Russia considered safe territory is now being attacked with long-range missiles," says the analyst. Take the strategically important Crimean bridge, or a coastal hotel where a top Russian commander was taken out. Targets "in depth" could cause Russia long-term problems. "Anything you take out behind the front does not reappear at the front," says Bouwmeester. That applies to equipment, but also to reservists to replace exhausted soldiers.

The attrition should lead to Russian defences eventually showing weaknesses. "If morale breaks somewhere, you can strike there," says De Kruif. Ukraine seems to have the resources to still come up with the big 'push', Bouwmeester believes. "There would be nine to 12 combat brigades trained, of which four to six have been deployed. There are still units behind, so." In the attrition strategy, time plays an important role. "There was a misunderstanding in Ukraine and abroad that the counter-offensive would be a quick operation," says Avdeeva. "But this is really different from the liberation of the Kharkiv region and the city of Kherson." That time is just scarce. Every day of war destroys the country more, including financially. That is why Kyiv would have preferred to force a major breakthrough at the front, Avdeeva says.

"Russia, meanwhile, is using the time to buy and produce more weapons and drones," Avdeeva says. Former Commander De Kruif, on the other hand, sees a rapid increase in Western weapons production. "If that really picks up steam, the West will produce more than Russia," he says. https://nos.nl/artikel/2483869-oekraine-herijkt-tegenoffensief-geen-grote-aanval-maar-focus-op-slijtage

[Jimbuna]

I'm not sure that is an accurate figure from the U.S. Secretary of State.

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Ukraine has taken back about 50% of the territory that Russia seized, although Kyiv's counteroffensive will extend several months.

"It’s already taken back about 50% of what was initially seized," Blinken said in an interview to CNN on Sunday.

"These are still relatively early days of the counteroffensive. It is tough," he said, adding: "It will not play out over the next week or two. We’re still looking I think at several months."

[Dargo]

I'm not sure that is an accurate figure from the U.S. Secretary of State.Total territory occupied by Russia at some point since Feb. 24: 54,000 square miles.

Total territory reclaimed by Ukraine since Feb. 24: 29,000. 54% of total territory occupied by Russia.
Currently occupied by Russia: 25,000.
https://www.russiamatters.org/blog/russia-ukraine-war-report-card-june-21-2023

[Jeff-Groves]

I'm not sure that is an accurate figure from the U.S. Secretary of State.
That Guy is still fishing with Wynken and Nod.
:doh:

[Jimbuna]

That Guy is still fishing with Wynken and Nod.
:doh:

I had to look that one up Jeff :)

[Jeff-Groves]

I had to look that one up Jeff :)
:har:

[tonschk]

Scandal: Ukraine sells military equipment donated by NATO

https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2022/07/07/scandal-ukraine-sells-military-equipment-donated-by-nato-countries/

Ukraine remains one of the most corrupt countries in the international system. Corruption not only destroys the country from within, but also begins to influence the attitude of its partners towards the country. The latest manifestation of corruption is beyond comprehension.

https://www.hostpic.org/images/2307240035480095.jpg (https://www.hostpic.org/view.php?filename=2307240035480095.jpg)

[Jeff-Groves]

Ukraine is second rate behind the USA for corruption.
:nope:
Throw in Russia and they go to 3rd rate.

[mapuc]

Pro-Russian media has aired similar claims of a mass diversion of arms meant for the frontline, some citing a retracted CBS report that included a source claiming only 30% of weapons sent to Ukraine made it to the battlefield; one conspiracy-inclined website, purportedly citing anonymous Ukrainians, claimed the "the weapons are stolen" to such a degree that Ukraine, as of August, had already "lost the war" because of the black market diversion.

https://www.businessinsider.com/no-sign-of-mass-arms-trafficking-from-ukraine-authorities-say-2022-10?r=US&IR=T

Markus

Looks like Russia has the advantage in the north

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jidtbh6G2t4&ab_channel=CombatVeteranReacts

Markus

Ukrainian officials stated on July 22 that Ukraine’s interdiction campaign against Russian military targets in rear areas is successfully degrading Russian logistics and counterbattery capabilities, likely contributing to an asymmetrical attrition gradient in Ukraine’s favor.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-22-2023

Tracking and destroying every Artillery, tanks and other material is impossible, hitting the ammo depot and fuel depot is a lot better.

Markus

[Skybird]

Kremlin propaganda raises this claim since quite some time, that wepaons dleivered end up on the internaitonbal black market, they claim that to discourage the West to send further weapons to Ukraine. But so far there is no sign and evidence for heavy weapons being smuggled out of Ukraine, say the Europeans as well as Frontex as well as American authorities.

When the war ends - then it is one needs to have close eyes on these weapons.

Total territory occupied by Russia at some point since Feb. 24: 54,000 square miles.

Total territory reclaimed by Ukraine since Feb. 24: 29,000. 54% of total territory occupied by Russia.
Currently occupied by Russia: 25,000.


Thats creative counting. The antidot is to look at this animated day-by-day animation on the maps.

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg#/media/File:2022_Russian_Invasion_of_Ukraine_animated.gif

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg#

The animation covers 2022, not 2023. But ther ehave not been dramatic changes in 2023. Things turned static last winter. Movement came to a crawl.

Russia won a lot of territory in the northern Kyiv region and at Charkiv at the beginning of their invasion, additional to the alrrady occupied territories they held since years, including crimea, yes, they had to withdraw at Kyiv, that is true, but this was - OVER ONE YEAR AGO.

They lost some territory in September 2022 at Charkiv, and in November at Cherson, watch the animated maps.

But the rest of the south-eastern territory the Russians hold, they hold since over one year, in parts since years, and that front is more or less static and we have not seen major gains by Ukraine since then. All this talking of that Ukraine won back half of the occupied territories gives the impression that the situation in the current - since over one year "current" - frontline in the south-east is changing, is seeing massive terioptiral losses by Russia. But that is not the case. Its more a reference to something that happened in the first month of the war, one and a half year ago already.

The claim of from 54000 to 25000 sqm occupied territory only lives of events that date back to the first chatoic month of Russias beginning of the invasion, and then the Ukrainian offensive last autumn that gained ground at Cherson and Charkiv.

The propaganda here tries to sell the public cold stale water from last year as freshly brewed coffee.

Watch that animated map and watch the dates in the top left corner.





###########################
new post
###########################







A comprehensive description of the situation and an outlook on the foreseeable future. There is no reason for optimism. None at all. Western governments continue to bury their heads in the sand and talk themselves out of the situation.

https://www-achgut-com.translate.goog/artikel/zermuerbungskrieg_statt_offensive?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp


(...)

Nevertheless, it would be fatal to base any serious military planning on the narrative of the success of Russia's own operations, which is addressed to the Western media. The changes that can currently be observed in Russian strategy are too explosive. Whereas since the beginning of June Moscow's troops have limited themselves to isolated counterattacks by smaller units, the Russian attacks are now being carried out in concert on various sections of the front. The number of forces involved is also steadily increasing.

It is becoming increasingly clear that the Russian General Staff apparently no longer considers the Ukrainian attack potential to be strong enough to carry out substantial attacks on several sections of the front. Instead, it seems to assume that Kiev's pressures will be concentrated only in the south and the Bachmut area. This, in turn, makes it much easier for him to plan major counteroffensives and execute them at the right moment. Anyone who wants to adequately grasp the current state of the war must take into account the fact that Ukraine's summer offensive is not a unified operation, as one is actually accustomed to in wars. Instead, it consists of a series of local advances, each of which has taken place at different sections of the front.

This is accompanied by the fact that none of these offensive efforts pursued far-reaching strategic goals. Instead of the successive execution of a general plan, a daily changing scanning of the front could be observed. This was done with the intention of identifying suitable weak points for possible breakthroughs. However, this did not have a significant effect on the course of the war. Instead of a conflict defined by few but comprehensive battles, we are dealing with a war of attrition in Ukraine. Both sides aim to deplete the enemy's reserves by the end of the summer. Accordingly, as much of the enemy's equipment and personnel as possible is to be destroyed.

As soon as there are signs of a significant weakening of the other side in these areas, the own forces can be combined for a sweeping attack. At least that is the calculation. Whether the necessary capacities will still be available in four to six weeks is currently completely unclear.

(...)
It is understandable that Selenski is trying to spread optimism, it is his job to support the morale of the troops and keep the population rallying around their flag. But we in the West must not believe it, it is propaganda, just as the Russian side's comments are propaganda.

Things turn against Ukraine more and more. It gets destroyed more day by day, and its military does not find a recipe (= does not have the means to break up the Russian lines:


(...)
The German media recently reported that Ukraine had successfully operated on three different fronts. This has given the impression that the liberation of the country is progressing steadily. However, as a look at the main focal points of the fighting shows, this is not the case. In the following, the southern front and the Bachmut area will be examined.

In the south, where the bulk of the fighting has taken place in recent weeks, Ukrainian forces are still trying to break through the five to six kilometre wide strip separating their positions from the first Russian defence lines. As has been described several times, this grey zone is littered with minefields and features sporadic Russian anti-tank defences as well as closely packed garrisons in the villages located there. Six weeks after the start of Kiev's offensive, this area has still not been brought under control. This is bad in that it should actually be the deployment area for larger operations in the southern direction. Conversely, this means that as long as the grey zone is not completely cleared, there can be no talk of further advances.
(...)

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=61f0ZTSYB28

[Skybird]

What is it with that spam alert? I posted the same text as a separate post, now its added to an older post?

[Jimbuna]

Now for todays dose of absolute garbage!!

Lukashenko warns Poland he is 'struggling' to restrain Wagner fighters from invading

Alexander Lukashenko has said Belarus is struggling to restrain Wagner Group fighters from attacking Poland.

The leader of Belarus made the claim at a meeting with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin in St Petersburg.

Lukashenko said: "The Wagnerites are beginning to stretch us. I ask, 'Why do you need to go to the West?'

"[They say,] 'We want to go on an excursion to Warsaw, to Rzeszow'."

The Belarusian leader also presented Putin with what he claimed to be a map of Poland's plan to attack Belarus.

Putin recently warned an attack on Belarus would constitute an attack on Russia.

Lukashenko said: "As we can see, the ground is being prepared."

Lukashenko said Wagner troops, who launched joint drills with the Belarusian military on Thursday almost a month after their short-lived rebellion against Moscow, wanted to go west but Belarus would not allow the mercenary force to relocate.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/lukashenko-warns-poland-he-is-struggling-to-restrain-wagner-fighters-from-invading/ar-AA1egmyW?ocid=mailsignout&pc=U591&cvid=469c053108e1470bae8c37dcb8dc090a&ei=14

The best answer should be NATO sending a few thousand more troops with accompanying armour and air assets with the message "Ready whenever you are"

[Jimbuna]

What is it with that spam alert? I posted the same text as a separate post, now its added to an older post?

Due to recent incidents involving multiple posts without any replies from others the bar was set at three as a trigger thereby giving everyone a chance to participate.

[Skybird]

What? I do not understand a thing.

[Jimbuna]

Take it to PM then.

[mapuc]

Does Russia have enough resources to retake most of what they lost to Ukraine last autumn ?

Does Ukraine have enough resources to withstand this Russian counteroffensive ?

Markus

[Skybird]

Does Russia have enough resources to retake most of what they lost to Ukraine last autumn ?
South and East: they will keep what they have, the losses there are small. North, Kyiv: well, they had it for just a month or so, and took a heavy beating in that month.
They must not retake anythign, they will be happy to keep what they have, but at Charkiv they obviously have gone on the offensive. And different to Western media reports it seems it is not just a small distractive effort, but a major attack. Ukraine seems to seriously struggle to keep them from advancing at a higher speed.



Does Ukraine have enough resources to withstand this Russian counteroffensive ?

(edit: I messed it up in the following paragraph, I was focussing on Russia, not Ukraine that you asked for. :) In short, Ukraine is under pressure, and when The Russians advance, that necessarily means the Ukrainains currently fall back accordingly. )


Yes. Obviously they have, so far, and I do not see their lines breaking up any time soon. If ever. I think it is by now wishful thinking. Both sides now again use their artikllery to deliver each other a battle of attrition of logistics, that means in a few weeks the Ukraine will possibly not have anything left anymore that is heavy and strong enough to support an offensive and advance through a breach in Russian lines. Media soemtime ssay the Ukriane still holds back 6 or seven briagdes, I think that is simply wrong, they hold back just 4, and these already have partially engaged their artillery. I think this description is the more credible and scenario.

Worse, as I just said, and as the article that Jim edit-added to my posting #46 also confirms: the Russians seem to gain confidence that the Ukrainians will not be able to make their offensive a crushing threat - and have gone on the offensive themselves elsewhere, at Charkiv. Why that is no distraciton, but indicates confidence? Because in significant parts they have send not new troops there, but shifted troops from the south-east to Charkiv, pulling them from front sectors where the Ukrainians attack. That tells something about the pressure of the Ukrainian attacks there, it seems to be rather weak. Obviously Ukrainian pressure there is such that the Russians can pull troops out instead of sending reinforcements in.

As it currenty goes, Ukraine bleeds out. Ukraine presses to get to Melitopol, but it is still 60km from the city, and has advanced in the past six-eight weeks just less than 10 km, and they have not even made contact with the major first defence line. Across the front, the Russian lines seem to hold - practically everyhwere, where they hve three lines in echelons, or just one line: they hold. The coast of Asov Sea still is about 90 km away.

All that speaks against Ukraine.

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EV7izgSueZo

[mapuc]

^^ Thank you for your answer to my question.

Why did I think of the trench war in WWI when I read your answer ?

I also think you're right when you said time is on the Russian side.

That is if Putler decide to declare war on Ukraine and thereby open up for hundred of thousands of reserves.

As Dargo once wrote- Russia has all their soldiers incl. reserves at the front while Ukraine has only 2/3rd of their soldiers at the front.

It's not exactly unlimited manpower from where Putler get his men from these days.

You also wrote:
"They must not retake anything, they will be happy to keep what they have"
In this case they don't need a lot of soldiers to defend what they have.

Markus

[Skybird]

Ukrainian front soldiers say they were not expecting so many mines, and that their unit had avanced one kilometer in one month. Further that 100m of gained ground cost them 4-5 soldiers.

https://www-tagesspiegel-de.translate.goog/internationales/alle-hundert-meter-verlieren-wir-4-bis-5-soldaten-ukrainische-soldaten-trotzen-der-schwierigen-situation-an-der-front-10200730.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp


The losses must be very high on both sides.

[mapuc]

Ukrainian front soldiers say they were not expecting so many mines, and that their unit had avanced one kilometer in one month. Further that 100m of gained ground cost them 4-5 soldiers.

https://www-tagesspiegel-de.translate.goog/internationales/alle-hundert-meter-verlieren-wir-4-bis-5-soldaten-ukrainische-soldaten-trotzen-der-schwierigen-situation-an-der-front-10200730.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp


The losses must be very high on both sides.

Shouldn't they not get demining equipment from USA ?

Maybe they should use one of the old tactics. Use explosive cables-Where they fire from some gun-like equipment and they fly 25 to 50 meters ahead and the operator press a button and the entire cable explode and any mines under or very close to this cable will explode.

Markus

[August]

Shouldn't they not get demining equipment from USA ?

Maybe they should use one of the old tactics. Use explosive cables-Where they fire from some gun-like equipment and they fly 25 to 50 meters ahead and the operator press a button and the entire cable explode and any mines under or very close to this cable will explode.

Markus




Yes and also some more from various European countries I believe but the problem is quantity. They are trying to clear very dense minefields with a fraction of the equipment necessary.

[Jimbuna]

Well, so much for Chinas supposed neutrality.

It is being reported that Russia imported drones from China worth more than 100 million dollars and has ordered ordered 100,000 bulletproof vests and 100,000 helmets.

I'm not in the least surprised.

[mapuc]

< Me neither
When will we see the first brigade of Chinese volunteers fighting among the Russian in Ukraine ?

Markus

[Jeff-Groves]

Well, so much for Chinas supposed neutrality.

It is being reported that Russia imported drones from China worth more than 100 million dollars and has ordered ordered 100,000 bulletproof vests and 100,000 helmets.

I'm not in the least surprised.

I hope all that stuff is of the usual Chinese quality.
:har:

[Jimbuna]

< Me neither
When will we see the first brigade of Chinese volunteers fighting among the Russian in Ukraine ?

Markus

Heaven only knows but they already have Ghurkha's fighting within their ranks.

[Jeff-Groves]

Heaven only knows but they already have Ghurkha's fighting within their ranks.

It's said some are fighting on both sides.
:hmmm:

[Jimbuna]

It's said some are fighting on both sides.
:hmmm:

It might well be the case but I honestly don't know for sure.

[Aktungbby]

he Belarusian leader also presented Putin with what he claimed to be a map of Poland's plan to attack Belarus. IE: the old 'false flag" scheme employed by Hitler to rationalize his invasion of Poland; uncovered by US intelligence prior to Putin's invasion of Ukraine: and now re-employed by Putin's toadying sycophant Lukashenko is now trying it again on Poland??!! The lack of original thinking is remarkable...:hmmm:

[Skybird]

Shouldn't they not get demining equipment from USA ?

Maybe they should use one of the old tactics. Use explosive cables-Where they fire from some gun-like equipment and they fly 25 to 50 meters ahead and the operator press a button and the entire cable explode and any mines under or very close to this cable will explode.

Markus
They got that from US, GER, UK.But the Russians became experts in taking them out. These tsnks must lead any advance and thus Russia found it easy to identify them and taking them out via gunship, artillery or drone.
Some western analysts think its possible that the better part of these vehicles already were taken out.

[Catfish]

It's said some are fighting on both sides.
:hmmm:
Yes, the situation in Nepal is that most young men do not find jobs, so they are looking for other opportunities. Does not matter which side as long as they are being paid :hmmm:


Russian ammunition depot hit during Ukrainian drone attack in Crimea

"Occupiers report drone hit at ammunition depot in Crimea
"The occupation authorities of Crimea reported hitting an ammunition depot in Dzhankoy district on Monday.

According to the Russian mass media, the movement of trains and cars along the Dzhankoy – Simferopol highway has been stopped, the population of villages within a radius of 5 kilometers from the ammunition depot is being evacuated."

https://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/924719.html

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tHlmD09xV2c

[Skybird]

Focus writes:
The Ukrainian counteroffensive has been underway for seven weeks, with no major successes so far. The Bundeswehr is now sharply critical of Ukraine's conduct of the war. This emerges from a paper that is said to be available to the "Bild" newspaper.

According to the paper, the Ukrainian army is not properly applying war techniques learned in the West. "The own troop units are partly divided into such small parts that each troop unit does something, but a common battle management is not recognizable," the paper is said to say. As a result, Ukrainian troops would squander the advantage that Western training and superior weaponry should give them.
Advertisement

A major problem, it says, is "Ukrainian operational doctrine": the more combat-experienced a Ukrainian soldier is and the higher he rises in the army, the less he internalizes Western training principles. The Bundeswehr, he said, has found that soldiers with less combat experience achieved greater success through Western training "in many cases" than more experienced soldiers.

Once the young soldiers returned to Ukraine, however, they were subordinated to officers who did not act according to Western procedures. The command personnel showed "in some cases significant deficiencies in leading and applying command processes," the newspaper quoted from the paper.


####################################


And this guy argues we should start shooting down Russian drones.


https://m-focus-de.translate.goog/politik/ausland/ukraine-krise/gastbeitrag-von-andreas-umland-deutscher-experte-in-ukraine-fordert-nato-sollte-putin-drohnen-abschiessen_id_199900393.html?_x_tr_sl=de&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp

[Jeff-Groves]

Yes, the situation in Nepal is that most young men do not find jobs, so they are looking for other opportunities. Does not matter which side as long as they are being paid :hmmm:


Getting so You can't trust no one now days!
:nope:

[Catfish]

The russian crap show at its finest

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NSU7gktyLjE

[mapuc]

^ Who thought that Russia didn't have stand-up comedians

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TUiSb2JrZ0A&ab_channel=CombatVeteranReacts

Markus

[Catfish]

China Is ‘Officially’ Sending Drones To Russia

Getting Help ‘Unofficially’ From Kazakhstan, Pakistan & Belarus

"Since Russia invaded Ukraine, China has supplied more than $12 million worth of drones to Moscow, demonstrating the two nations’ deepening cooperation despite threats from the US to take action against Chinese firms, reported The New York Times.

The report noted that the shipments included DJI products—a well-known drone manufacturer worldwide—and products from various smaller businesses—often flowed through small-time middlemen and exporters."

https://www.eurasiantimes.com/china-supplied-drones-worth-millions-to-russia-since-it-invaded/#:~:text=Since%20Russia%20invaded%20Ukraine%2C%20C hina,reported%20The%20New%20York%20Times.

[mapuc]

China Is ‘Officially’ Sending Drones To Russia

Getting Help ‘Unofficially’ From Kazakhstan, Pakistan & Belarus

"Since Russia invaded Ukraine, China has supplied more than $12 million worth of drones to Moscow, demonstrating the two nations’ deepening cooperation despite threats from the US to take action against Chinese firms, reported The New York Times.

The report noted that the shipments included DJI products—a well-known drone manufacturer worldwide—and products from various smaller businesses—often flowed through small-time middlemen and exporters."

https://www.eurasiantimes.com/china-supplied-drones-worth-millions-to-russia-since-it-invaded/#:~:text=Since%20Russia%20invaded%20Ukraine%2C%20C hina,reported%20The%20New%20York%20Times.

They forgot Iran-Iran is beside Belarus, the country who has and are helping Russia most. They doesn't send drones they even send instructors.
How many million dollars Iran has send of drones I can't remember.

Markus

[Skybird]

At 00:05:30 ff.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TUiSb2JrZ0A

Thats another way to say what I said in #46 and gave a link to an animnated map gif there. It simply is misleading when politicians claim that half of the Russian territorial gains have been retaken by Ukraine. I explained it in #46, its just the in-and-out of Russia in the first two months of the invasion, February and March 2022, and Ukrain'S kick-back answer in April 2022. Since then, not much has happened anymore.


In a way the statement "they took back half of what Russia has conquered" tries to paint a picture of today with colours from one and a half year ago. That is misleading for sure.

[Jimbuna]

At 00:05:30 ff.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TUiSb2JrZ0A

Thats another way to say what I said in #46 and gave a link to an animnated map gif there. It simply is misleading when politicians claim that half of the Russian territorial gains have been retaken by Ukraine. I explained it in #46, its just the in-and-out of Russia in the first two months of the invasion, February and March 2022, and Ukrain'S kick-back answer in April 2022. Since then, not much has happened anymore.


In a way the statement "they took back half of what Russia has conquered" tries to paint a picture of today with colours from one and a half year ago. That is misleading for sure.

Try going further back to #38

https://www.subsim.com/radioroom/showpost.php?p=2877627&postcount=38

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bjl2CVwe4Yc

[Skybird]

Try going further back to #38

https://www.subsim.com/radioroom/showpost.php?p=2877627&postcount=38
Oh, the tricky part is that the statement that 50% of the territories that have been conquered have been liberated again might well be true if one makes a simple graphical estimate of the territorial gains and losses since February 2022, as is given here:

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg#/media/File:2022_Russian_Invasion_of_Ukraine_animated.gif

Yes, roughly it looks to me as if it are 50% Ukraine has taken back.

The point is that the Russians' dramatic losses all concern the beginning of the invasion in February to April 2022, while today the 50% statement is used to give the impression that there have also been major Ukrainian successes in the 14 months since, and that the momentum of a year and a half ago still exists today.

It doesn't. It hasn't for a long time.

But maybe you're building ahead and preparing Ukrainians for a defeat by telling them, "We can't go any further, but at least we've won back 50%. Thats not everything, but it's something."

If you continue a war - with great self-destruction - for which you are not well enough prepared to win, then sooner or later the question of the moral legitimacy of continuing this war also arises at some point. In view of Putin's announcement that he intends to commit genocide, the seriousness of this concern is reduced, but since Putin must have realized that he will not be able to carry through his plans, at some point pragmatism on both sides will force the end of the current arms struggle. One does not want to call this peace, it is only a deep breath before the next war.

2024 or 2025, I think, will see the end of the current round.

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GHSdRSWfVb4

[tonschk]

DOUGLAS MACGREGOR - UKRAINE CANNOT WIN THIS WAR: IT'S TIME TO NEGOTIATE WITH PUTIN

https://www.bitchute.com/video/kdCyzGao5MFH/

https://www.hostpic.org/images/2307252027050096.png (https://www.hostpic.org/view.php?filename=2307252027050096.png)

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kOjZK60i5F4&t=18s

[mapuc]

^^ The question is also:
Is Russia capable to win the war ?

Well not without help it seems like
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nRK6cCdp1A0&ab_channel=CombatVeteranReacts

Markus

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pvtbrZ-lCVc&t=12s

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aJd3krlvsVI

[Jimbuna]

Russia and all those who support war crimes must be feeling pretty proud of themselves right now.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Eb7IBGraHQg

[Skybird]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aJd3krlvsVI
Big win? This is the scene of the big win, I put a 1km-circle around it to give an impression of scale.


https://i.postimg.cc/pLzFQzwc/Unbenannt.png (https://postimg.cc/gxcjmXk3)



Now I wonder how much the Ukrainains had to pay for this big win. The territorial gain is not impressive. How much did it take them? Because that cost they had to pay is what influences the war much more than this small strip of land.

Dont get me wrong, I do not mean to talk Ukrainian efforts down. But I react increasingly allergic to this constant glorious propaganda and reality-contorting rhetoric. And we have enough interview snippets with Ukrainian soldiers at the front that clearly indicate they dont give dirt for this propaganda thunder at all, and see a different reality on the ground.

Bakhmut does not count, its just about two growling egos. What counts is Melitopol and the coast south of it, this is where the fate of this offensive is decided. If they could take Melitopol, then Russia would get extremely serious strategic problems on the operational level. But they are still 60km and three heavily fortified defence lines away from that city. But Bakhmut...?! Bakhmut is just political symbolism. No strategic relevance whatever.

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z4AI3BcnT5s

[Skybird]

Shoigu is in North Korea.

One can assume Xi is not amused.

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eMm-enYU0tE

[mapuc]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fwIt0gRa6b4&ab_channel=U.S.DefenseNews

Markus

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W05Ln5qqZ1k

[Dargo]

According to the US Department of Defence, the main attack of the Ukrainian counteroffensive has begun. This is reported by The New York Times on the basis of two anonymous but highly placed sources within the Pentagon. Thousands of Ukrainian soldiers trained in the West and held in reserve behind the front in recent months are now said to have been deployed. The attack was reportedly deployed in the southeast of the country. There is no official confirmation from the Ukrainian side, but President Volodymyr Zelensky did say tonight that "very good news has come from the front". The president did not give more details, but he did say more news would follow soon.

Earlier today, the Russian defence ministry said that Ukraine had launched a new large-scale attack in Zaporizhzhya province. Russian military bloggers also reported heavy fighting and advancing Ukrainian troops, using tanks and armoured vehicles given to them by the West. According to the Russian defence ministry, all attacks were repelled, but those reports could not be independently verified.

[mapuc]

Maybe it's to much to hope for a repetition like we saw in autumn last year.

This time the Russian is prepared or will we again see them running as hell from the frontline ?

Markus

[Skybird]

Maybe it's to much to hope for a repetition like we saw in autumn last year.
That was clear from beginning of the offensive on, and nobody expected such a swift stunt again. Hope was for success, though harder fought over. Lats autumn, there were no Russian fortified defence lines and defences zones 20-30km deep.


This time the Russian is prepared or will we again see them running as hell from the frontline ?
Some do runb, but so do some Ukrainians as well. The Russian lines so far hold. If the Ukrainaisnb even reach them, which mostly is not the case, they still dela with outposts before thefor st line, and minefields that constantly get renewed byartillery. Where the media show pictures and videos from Ukrainian commandos storming trenches and hidden stands, these are so far said outposts, not fortifications embedded in the first defence line. Two or three days ago I red (and I think posted a translated text) that the Ukrioanains are good in storming these oputpsots - but that they mostly must withdraw sooin again because the Russians quickly come down with heavy artillery on every position they have lost or have lost contact to. If you stay in the stand you just "conquered", you are dead.

--------------------------------

FOCUS writes:


The Ukrainian Armed Forces say they have made terrain gains in eastern and southern Ukraine, but they have also faced problems. "Due to the difficult and contradictory situation in the Bachmut and Lyman sections, we had to adjust our plans," the commander-in-chief of the land forces, Olexander Syrskyj, told the Telegram messaging service on Tuesday.

Earlier, General Staff spokesman Andriy Kovalev had spoken of an advance toward the village of Andriivka, south of the Russian-controlled town of Bachmut. In the southern part of Donetsk region, Ukrainian troops had again advanced between 500 and 750 meters near the village of Staromajorske.

The Ukrainian changes in plans presumably relate to Russian advances from the Luhansk region toward the neighboring Kharkiv region north of the Kiev-controlled town of Lyman. According to consistent reports, Russian troops have made terrain gains west of Karmasynivka.

According to unconfirmed local reports, there were explosions in the central part of the Black Sea peninsula of Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014. It was initially unclear whether these were due to the use of Russian air defense or actual impacts.

[Skybird]

According to the US Department of Defence, the main attack of the Ukrainian counteroffensive has begun. This is reported by The New York Times on the basis of two anonymous but highly placed sources within the Pentagon. Thousands of Ukrainian soldiers trained in the West and held in reserve behind the front in recent months are now said to have been deployed. The attack was reportedly deployed in the southeast of the country. There is no official confirmation from the Ukrainian side, but President Volodymyr Zelensky did say tonight that "very good news has come from the front". The president did not give more details, but he did say more news would follow soon.

Earlier today, the Russian defence ministry said that Ukraine had launched a new large-scale attack in Zaporizhzhya province. Russian military bloggers also reported heavy fighting and advancing Ukrainian troops, using tanks and armoured vehicles given to them by the West. According to the Russian defence ministry, all attacks were repelled, but those reports could not be independently verified.


CNN:
Russian officials and military bloggers claimed Ukraine launched a major offensive (https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-07-26-23/h_86185130c4db8a5e61dd93eac1f581dc) in the southern Zaporizhzhia region. Ukraine has not yet commented on this reported offensive, but a defense official said its forces are "gradually advancing" (https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-07-26-23/h_483f3d98f1febca2fd085c2b6af9f069) near Melitopol and Berdiansk in the region.

And:

https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-07-26-23/h_86185130c4db8a5e61dd93eac1f581dc



Lets hope this is true and indicates something bigger then so far. And lets hope they are more successful. Melitopol is the goal line, or contact with the coast south-east or south-west of Melitopol.

[Skybird]

Russia's gunship fleet of KA-52 have been reinforced with a new version that incorporates experiences they made in Syria. With these units, the fielding of the LMUR air to ground missile has been intensified, where before apparently it was used more sporadically only. The mean detail here is that this missiles has a range of 15 km. It outranges local air defences like manpads and Gepards and means really bad news for mechanised formations trying to advance.

The Washington Post is quoted with its refering to its sources in the Pentagon that there is only muted trust in the reported beginning of the main thrust of the ukrainian offensive. These sources say that the size of this move and how many troops of the reserve are engaged, is unclear, and that one has not yet understood the purpose of the Ukrianian manouvering. A government official said that it could be they just send new troops to rotate out exhausted troops.

Other press media report that the ukrainians in that sector, which is around 90 km exactly east of the nuclear powerplant at Saporishia, have made contact with the first defence line of the Rusians in that area, and a Russian regional commander posted on Telegram that the line has been breached at three locations.

https://i.postimg.cc/Ls9F7g3v/Inked-Unbenannt-LI.jpg (https://postimages.org/)

The red lines/dots mark Russian trenches and defence fortifications, early summer 2023.

I marked the region of interest with a blue "V". Its some of the heaviest layer of defences there, and if from there they turn south-west to Melitopol you can see that then they have the maximum thickness of defences against them. Or they go south-east to the coast, bypassing Melitopol - and keeping greater distance from Crimea, which is not wanted. They want their artillery/missiles being able to cover all of Crimea.

The picture thus is obscured and what really is going on is unclear. If there will be lasting advance, it will be slow and take weeks. The region it is about is beside Bakhmut the most heavily defended one in the Russian front, and almost nowhere are the prepared defences as intense and mutli-layered, as here. The Russians expected the attack to come down this road, and the Ukrainians seem to think they have no other chance than to go here. If this is the real big push, of course.

Zelensky called the NATO-Ukraine council for action over the grain transports, but got nothing substantial in deed and action, only a thunderstorm of determined words and phrases. He must be totally disappointed, and even is not allowed to show it.

BBC reports that Western armour gives troops better protection, but struggles to push through Russian defences:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66306150

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3NPIaOnpAzE

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WXM6Zj_eK0M

[Catfish]

IMHO laying mines is the most cowardly tactic apart from taking hostages.
Yes i am well aware that all sides use(d) it.
I think even Russia itself does not know where it placed all those mines, this will also be a future problem.
Best way to overcome it now is to place troops in the back of the fortified russian lines, like Germany did with the Maginot line.

[Jimbuna]

My poor heart bleeds for him (Putin)

Vladimir Putin has been snubbed by dozens of African leaders as the Russian autocrat deals with the reality of his nation's dwindling global influence.

Just 17 African leaders will attend a summit that begins in St Petersburg on Thursday. Four years ago, when the conference was first held, 43 leaders travelled to the event.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/embarrassed-putin-snubbed-by-dozens-of-african-leaders-at-st-petersburg-summit/ar-AA1eq8l1?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=c55da956dc28420b89a9ff6c266b0159&ei=31

Cut price oil for China and India and now the promise of free grain?

Of course the Russian economy is thriving....right?

Russian President Vladimir Putin told African leaders in St Petersburg on Thursday that Russia would send up to 50,000 tons of grain for free to six African countries.

"In the coming months, we will be able to ensure free supplies of 25,000 to 50,000 tons of grain to Burkina Faso, Zimbabwe, Mali, Somalia, Central African Republic and Eritrea," he said in a speech opening the Russia-Africa summit.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/russia-s-putin-promises-free-grain-for-6-african-countries/ar-AA1eqdrH?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=a895e14d4a6c480dbeb92e390860eb4f&ei=28

[Skybird]

IMHO laying mines is the most cowardly tactic apart from taking hostages.
"Cowardly"...? What century are you living in...? :D
Its effective. War has a different set of needs and logic than peace. Apply peacetime moral to war situations, and you loose every single time.

Battle of Azincourt, 1415. Peasants dressed as English Longbow archers lined up on the battlefield and mowed down France's elite knights cavalry, a total generation of its finest, from distances unimaginable before, defeating their heavy plate armour due to their Bodkins arrowheads, and certainly not in ("honourable") fight man versus man, but by swarms of drones arrows. At that time many demanded that every caught archer of the enemy should not be pardoned but executed for his cowardly, dishonourable way to fight.

It did not matter. The Englishmen won. Or better: they served the French their bottoms on silver plates.

The Americans preferred night attacks when possible in the Gulf war, due to their night vision gear and thermal displays giving them decisive advantage over the Iraqi's practical night blindness. How unfair! Same for NAOT over Sowjet troops in Cold War turning hot war: it was expected that NATO would counterattack in the night and defend in the day.

Ukrainian tanks from Sovjet era with mine clearing equipment attached to them, can sustain 3-4 mines exploding before the kit is destroyed and must be replaced. The russians reacted to that and now place two mines over each other, reducing the longevity of mine clearing erqipment on such tanks by one half. Plus they have started already weeks ago to close every breach in the minefields by artillery delivered mines and also scattering anti personnel mines into their tank obstacles and anti-tank minefields so that engineers have a harder time breaching them.

Thats not cowardly. Thats clever and shows military competence. Even the US officials admit that Russia has build a formidable set of defences in WW1 style now. And so far the Ukrainians have a miserable time in trying to deal with them, it slows them down by many factors and brought them close to getting bogged down completely. They admit that they totally underestimated the mine problem, so did the West. That's the purpose of the exercise, isnt it? Delaying the attacker, channeling his movement into kill zones.

We could have the same discussion on cluster ammunition. Flame throwers. But it would be pointless. War has its own needs and its own logic.

If we do not like them to lay mines, then we must hinder them. But just weeping helps us not.

[mapuc]

It's not gonna be an easy offensive

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u_2LS3pqu74&ab_channel=CombatVeteranReacts

Markus

[Dargo]

That Ukraine launched the biggest attack of this offensive is clear, but is this the attack?
After months of minimal ground gain, Ukraine appears to have made a significant breakthrough in the south. In the Zaporizhzhia region, Ukraine suddenly penetrated kilometres through the front line. Whether this is the prelude to the main attack, however, remains to be seen. Ukrainian President Zelensky was pleased in his daily address on Wednesday evening. In a small aside at the end, he focused attention on the battlefield: 'By the way, our boys at the front have achieved very good results today. Well done. More details will follow later.' It was a remarkably optimistic message after weeks in which Ukraine had to reluctantly admit that the long-awaited offensive was not delivering what many might have hoped: large-scale recapture of occupied territory. Here and there a village was brought back under Ukrainian rule, terrain gains were measured at most in hectometres.

But that seems to have changed this week. Russia reported on Wednesday that Ukraine had launched a large-scale attack in the Zaporizhzhia region. With at least 100 armoured vehicles, Ukraine reportedly attempted to break through the lines, the Russians claimed to have repelled the attacks. The Ukrainians, as so often, maintained silence, but Pentagon sources told US media they had heard from the Ukrainians that this was the main attack of the offensive. Whether that is indeed the case is not certain. What is certain, however, is that this is the largest attack of the offensive so far, says Frans Osinga, professor of military science at Leiden University: 'If the reports are correct, Ukraine has steamed up 2.5 to 5 kilometres. Then we are talking about significant ground gains.' The advance took place towards Robotyne. It is the provisional culmination of a two-month-long war of attrition, Osinga said: 'In recent times, Ukraine has mainly tried to undermine Russian defensive capabilities.' Ukraine eliminated heavy Russian equipment with sustained artillery attacks, cleared minefields and went down trench by trench to defuse Russian infantry. Osinga: 'In this way, Ukraine also tried to discover where weaknesses are in the Russian defences. Ukraine has been very careful with its reserves and the Western equipment they have been supplied with.' So while there now seems to be talk of at least a major attack, Ukraine is still cautious, Osinga thinks: 'There are now reports that they have deployed three battalions. That makes one brigade. Ukraine has nine brigades trained and armed by the West. When the real main attack is deployed, expect several brigades deployed with hundreds of armoured vehicles.' Reports vary, but the deployment of German Leopard tanks and US Bradley combat vehicles seemed to be somewhere between 30 and 40. Moreover, says Osinga, you would need to see a much larger logistical operation in the rear, such as trucks delivering ammunition and other supplies. Without a slick logistics operation, any offensive is doomed to failure.

Should the current attack do form part of the main attack, the Zaporizhzhia region is not an illogical location for it. Stepping up to Melitopol which is near the Sea of Azov is a scenario that military analysts have frequently mentioned prior to the offensive. If Ukraine manages to pull that off, it drives a wedge between southwestern Ukraine and Crimea on one side and the Donbas on the other. The Russian logistics operation will then be severely disrupted. The only supply route with Crimea by road would then be across the Crimean Bridge, which connects the occupied peninsula on the eastern side with the Russian mainland. That bridge was attacked by Ukraine last year and last week. Osinga also considers other scenarios. This week's large-scale attacks could also be an attempt to provoke a Russian response: 'Maybe they want to see where Russia will commit its reserves.' It would then also give Ukraine opportunities in other places along the front line. 'Also around Bakhmut, Ukraine has gained ground bit by bit. We should not downplay those successes. Since Russia left Kherson, the conquest of Bakhmut has been the only success. If Ukraine manages to recapture it, it will mean a big symbolic gain over Russia.'

The likelihood of a main attack coming soon seems high. Ukraine has an interest in this in several ways besides gaining territory. Osinga: 'If substantial territory is captured, it is a signal to the Russians: look what we can do with Western equipment. And it is also a signal to the West: keep supplying us with your equipment.' The problem, however, is that you can only launch the main attack once: 'Once you commit to the main attack, you can't go back. You want to keep the Russians in limbo for as long as possible.' According to Osinga, it remains a question of patience. While many in the West may have hoped for Russia's quick expulsion from occupied territory, Ukraine has always had a longer term in mind. 'If it does not succeed this year, this offensive could be a prelude to next year's offensive. Then Ukraine will have to go into the winter with a good starting position,' Osinga said.

The West has already provided Ukraine with a lot of equipment, but large quantities of shells and fighter jets, for example, will not be delivered until next spring at the earliest. F-16s would allow Ukraine to conquer territory faster. Currently, Ukraine still relies on cluster munitions, among other things, supplied by the United States. That ammunition is controversial because unexploded parts can also cause civilian casualties at a later stage. Osinga does see its initial effects on the battlefield: 'With one shell you can cover an entire football field. That's an effective way to take out infantrymen.' Western countries lean much more on air superiority, says Osinga: 'You pulverise the whole battlefield from the air. You can also protect your own troops better. Ukraine does not have that luxury.' https://www.volkskrant.nl/nieuws-achtergrond/dat-oekraine-de-grootste-aanval-van-dit-offensief-heeft-uitgevoerd-is-duidelijk-maar-is-dit-de-aanval~bc8d4972/

[mapuc]

US military veterans risking their lives to defend Ukraine by volunteering in the Ukrainian Armed Forces storming Russian trenches, while the White House sits on its hands and continues to refuse to sufficiently arm Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1684335700827860993

Markus

[Skybird]

If this is "the" offensive, then we will learn about huge logistical acivity in the Ukrainians' rear, and supply trucks moving forward with fuel and ammo. Reports on that currently seem to miss.

[Catfish]

[...] Plus they have started already weeks ago to close every breach in the minefields by artillery delivered mines and also scattering anti personnel mines into their tank obstacles and anti-tank minefields [...]
Which is why I wrote:
Best way to overcome it now is to place troops in the back of the fortified russian lines, like Germany did with the Maginot line.
Drop paratroops and attack them from the rear. AFAIK night vision equipment is scarce on the russian side.
Another idea would be an artillery barrage starting close behind the enemy positions and then roll it back; but of course Ukraine does not have the ammo for this.
Still, scattering mines without knowing the positions the ukrainian battlezones will look like Laos when this war is over.

edit spoke with some german officers and as has been posted before somewhere here they criticize the ukrainian tactics, lacking combined operations despite them having trained exactly that.
Don't know what is going on, maybe it takes more time to let it sink in(?)

[mapuc]

Did you know that Ukraine could have kicked Russia out of Ukraine last Autumn.
Reason to why they stopped in Luhansk and in Kherson region was:

1. Lack of ammo
2. Logistic could not keep up with the speed of the advancing forces.

The speed of todays offensive the logistic has no problem keeping up with it

Markus

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4CGykJwG03Y

[Skybird]

Which is why I wrote:
Best way to overcome it now is to place troops in the back of the fortified russian lines, like Germany did with the Maginot line.
Drop paratroops and attack them from the rear. AFAIK night vision equipment is scarce on the russian side.
If you think of Air Cav on helicpoters, they would get shot out of the sky when crossing the front, the Russians have both air superioity on that region and heavy missile density, both ATGMs and manpads/SAMs. If you think of people hanging on parachutes, their transport planes again again are object of Russian missile fire, and yo can trnapdort only a very thin and oight force that way becasue the Ukrianian air force, including trnapsdorts,m is extremely seriously decimated. Bringing troops into the rear of the Russians, the Ukrainians showed the possibly only way: small special commandos and very small troop contingents crossing the frontline under stealth.
This is not Market Garden! :O:



edit spoke with some german officers and as has been posted before somewhere here they criticize the ukrainian tactics, lacking combined operations despite them having trained exactly that.
Don't know what is going on, maybe it takes more time to let it sink in(?)
I posted it, yes. The BW complained about the trained lower rank soldiers get back to Ukraine and then come under command of higher ranks that then run Sovjet doctrine commando regimes again, or trained troops climb up the ranks and then get their own commando, but are then forced to fall into the bigger picture and again must ignore their traning and instead practice Swvjet battle drill doctrine. And the treianignt iem was very shoret anyway. The bulk of the ukrianian army seems to be no longer - or neve rhas been - capable to practice NATO's combined arms doctrine, were things must be orchestrated fast and simultaneously and aggressively and troops, and artillery and air power all work together at the same time. The criticism is that the ukrainians do everything one step after the other, and one unit by one unit. The units of all armed forces in locaiton and the variosu weapon branches are not interlocked, their actions are not coordinated fpr simultaneously. The exact opposite of combined arms. Its high arts of warfare, obviously it cannot be learned by a whole army in just a few weeks.





It was the BILD that reported it first.

[Skybird]

Did you know that Ukraine could have kicked Russia out of Ukraine last Autumn.
Reason to why they stopped in Luhansk and in Kherson region was:

1. Lack of ammo
2. Logistic could not keep up with the speed of the advancing forces.

The speed of todays offensive the logistic has no problem keeping up with it

MarkusNo, that is exaggerated, but true is that they for no reaosn that is apparent to the eye let the Russians escape over a damaged bvriudge at Cherson, and that in the east the Russian resisten ce was so intense that a planned third attack vector south of Charkiv, which tghey took, ha dto be broklen off due to too high own losses.



But they were not near to driving Russia out, completely.



The called-off third attack is what got almost no coverage in the media, although it was a first serious indicator that not everything the Russians set up was incompetent and stupid. This Ukrainian attack they spoiled already back then - before they had started to establish profound ground defences.


Ukrianain field commanders say that what the Russian now do and set up in stiff resistence is extremely professionally orchestrated and competent., and that they are extremely quick now in identifiying even inividual vehicles moving inside firing range and take them out with artillery. They use very many observation drones. They react very fast. Ukrainians do not take them lightly... if they ever did...


Not all Russian officers are dumb. And those who survive, gain experience.

[mapuc]

And I who thought that Russia had air supremacy inside their protection zone and the same when it comes to Ukraine.

Even during this time Russian fighter jet do not fly over Ukraines protection zones.

Protection zone=areas where they have SAM's and other anti air system to protect their troops and fighter jet and helicopters.

I could of course be wrong about this...Just a thought.

Markus

[mapuc]

No, that is exaggerated, but true is that they for no reaosn that is apparent to the eye let the Russians escape over a damaged bvriudge at Cherson, and that in the east the Russian resisten ce was so intense that a planned third attack vector south of Charkiv, which tghey took, ha dto be broklen off due to too high own losses.



But they were not near to driving Russia out, completely.



The called-off third attack is what got almost no coverage in the media, although it was a first serious indicator that not everything the Russians set up was incompetent and stupid. This Ukrainian attack they spoiled already back then - before they had started to establish profound ground defences.


Ukrianain field commanders say that what the Russian now do and set up in stiff resistence is extremely professionally orchestrated and competent., and that they are extremely quick now in identifiying even inividual vehicles moving inside firing range and take them out with artillery. They use very many observation drones. They react very fast. Ukrainians do not take them lightly... if they ever did...


Not all Russian officers are dumb. And those who survive, gain experience.

It must be me who has remembered things wrong.

Markus

[Catfish]

there also was a post or link that blamed the Nordstream II blow-up on the russians instead of Ukraine, some german(?) TV team had visited a woman connected to thiy yacht in Russia to question her but she acted quite aggressively.
Anyone remember this or has a link, in the 'net all talk about Ukraine (or England :haha:)

[Skybird]

there also was a post or link that blamed the Nordstream II blow-up on the russians instead of Ukraine, some german(?) TV team had visited a woman connected to thiy yacht in Russia to question her but she acted quite aggressively.
Anyone remember this or has a link, in the 'net all talk about Ukraine (or England :haha:)
That again was a post by me.

They're all mine! :D


It was the so far latest reported twitch on the story.

[Catfish]

Yes you own it all and all else and still WHERE IS THIS POST? :haha: :subsim:

[Skybird]

In the old Ukraine thread. Probably. :Kaleun_Cheers:

[Rockstar]

the term "rapid collapse" is being spoken in the russian telegram channels.....

[ET2SN]

Long term, Ukraine has to be careful with how they wrap up this war. :yep:

This sounds like a lot of contradictions, but one year after the fighting stops Ukraine will still share a border with Russia and Belarus.

Being a member of NATO won't really stop the "gray attacks" (ie, cyber attacks) and we also have to understand that there are plenty of Russians who moved to Ukraine and Ukrainians who moved to Russia since the 1990's.

In other words, its really complicated. :03:


Meaning:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9miLGPXBs4w


Don't judge a Ukrainian victory by German, British, US, or European standards. :salute:

[Skybird]

Tokmak is what they are after. That is north-east of Melitopol. Its still unclear where exactly they stand, but the situation must be in flux anyway, and after a first push south it was said yesterday that the Russians had pushed them back a bit again. Two steps foirward, one step back, so to speak. Thats okay if they can repeat that often enough.



BBC posted this: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66323354

https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/E5D6/production/_129783885_tokmak_overview_trenches-2x-nc.png


FOCUS:
In demarcation from Russia, the Orthodox Church of Ukraine has decided to transition to the modern calendar. The New Julian calendar, which affects fixed holidays such as Christmas and is calculated to be the same as the Gregorian calendar in use today until the year 2800, is to be introduced for the new church year starting Sept. 1, according to the decision of the synod of bishops. The Russian Orthodox Church follows the Julian calendar until today.

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IUdA4T96zi8

[Jimbuna]

Soooo....Putin tries to bully Poland now, but what with?

Poland will stand fast.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DZKGt5h7S-k

[mapuc]

From what I understand is that USA are sending a bunch of the MBT Abrams to Ukraine this autumn.(September I think it was)

Will they make any different ?

Also heard something about Israel sending some of their MBT Merkava

Even here. Will they make any different ?

Markus

[Dargo]

From what I understand is that USA are sending a bunch of the MBT Abrams to Ukraine this autumn.(September I think it was)

Will they make any different ?

Also heard something about Israel sending some of their MBT Merkava

Even here. Will they make any different ?

MarkusThe Israel sending some of their MBT Merkava is not gone to happen, I think last year there was also news in paper for delivery of rocket systems that did not happen either.

Tanks will only make a difference when they can do their job, for that there is a breakthrough of the defense lines needed tanks need maneuvering space, else they are too easy targets.

These are the six main fronts in Ukraine to keep an eye on
Ukraine stepped up the intensity of its offensive last week. In which locations is most of the fighting taking place, and what is the tactical importance of these spots?

1. Hrozove
Near the drained reservoir in the Dnipro River, Ukraine is trying to force a breakthrough towards the town of Hrozove. Since the beginning of the offensive, the Ukrainian army has mostly been throwing pinpricks and also managed to liberate two small villages in this area. In the last two days, the military seems to be making some ground gains again. This attack seems mainly aimed at surrounding the town of Vasylivka. In this small town on the Dnipro River there is a highway towards Melitopol. If Ukraine takes control of this road, the army will have a much better connection towards Crimea. If the Ukrainians can advance towards Melitopol, the army can cut the Russian front in half and cut off Crimea from occupied eastern Ukraine. To get that far and advance towards the Sea of Azov, Ukraine still needs to break through two lines of trenches.

2. Robotyne
The most intense fighting this week took place near the town of Robotyne in Zaporizhzhya province. Ukraine has previously attempted to make significant ground gains here, but then got bogged down by the Russians' stout defences. During these initial attacks in early June, several modern Leopard tanks were damaged, images of which were generously shared by Russian military bloggers. This setback has caused the Ukrainian army to change its attack tactics. In recent weeks, the focus was mainly on depleting the Russians' supply lines by attacking bridges and ammunition stores, which would make it more difficult for the Russian army to get fresh forces and equipment to the front. Ukraine has been attempting to reach Robotyne again since Wednesday, losing many military vehicles. Images show that the Ukrainian army is active east of Robotyne, meaning that the army has advanced several kilometres. Near Robotyne is the first line of Russian trenches. Ukraine, via Robotyne, is eventually trying to take the town of Tokmak under fire. That is a major hub for rail transport. Ukraine is thus trying to disrupt the supply of heavy equipment (such as tanks).

3. Staromlynivka
Most of Ukraine's success over the past month and a half has been in the area of Staromlynivka. Since the offensive, the army already managed to liberate seven villages in this area. On Thursday, the eighth village was liberated, the hamlet of Staromaiorske in Donetsk province. Ukraine's advance is mainly via a river valley. Russia is trying to halt the advance via the slightly higher hills. The gained ground and especially the liberated villages are a boost for the Ukrainian army. At the same time, the route south, towards Staromlynivka and eventually the big city of Mariupol, is longer and also leads over smaller roads than the advance via Tokmak near the front around Robotyne. Also, through this third front in the south, Ukraine is trying to break the Russian front in half in order to isolate Crimea. The attacks on the Crimean bridge also fit into this plan of attack, making it even more difficult for Russia to get its supplies in order.

4. Andriivka
The fighting on the eastern line is much more laborious than that in the south. The front here is also much more static. Here lies the old front line created in 2014, when the separatist provinces of Luhansk and Donetsk seceded from Ukraine. The trenches dug then still form part of the front line. For the Russians, the trenches complicated the army's advance early in the war. The same trenches are now causing problems for Ukraine in deploying modern Western tanks in the counterattack. In recent days, there has been some movement near the small town of Andriivka, where Ukraine has gained ground.

5. Bakhmut
Fierce fighting has broken out again near Bakhmut in recent weeks, with Ukraine trying to encircle the lost town. After months of bloody fighting and house-to-house battles, the Wagner mercenary army managed to occupy Bakhmut in May. Ukraine's counterattacks seem to have had some success in recent weeks. Both north and south of the city, the Ukrainian military has gained ground. From the hills to the north, Ukraine is trying to take the ruins of Bakhmut under fire. Military analysts assume that Ukraine does not want to move into the city anytime soon, but mainly wants to interrupt the Russians' supply via encirclement. The battle around Bakhmut is especially symbolically significant. Bakhmut was the last major victory for the Russian army and, if lost, would mark a sensitive defeat for Putin.

6. Stelmachivka
The Russian army did have some success on the northern part of the front line, near Stelmachivka, in recent weeks. According to Russian military bloggers and also Ukrainian sources, Russia has proportionately many soldiers and equipment stationed here. In this area, Russia is trying to take advantage of Ukraine's targeting of its scarce resources. While in the southern line mainly Western tanks and other equipment are deployed, here on the eastern line the Ukrainian army has to make do mostly with old Russian-made weapons. During the rotation of Ukrainian army battalions - where new soldiers come to replace existing combat troops - Russia managed to gain ground this week. The newly arrived troops managed to halt the advance at Stelmachivka, but the fighting was a warning that along the 2,500-kilometre front it is not only Ukraine that can be on the attack. https://www.volkskrant.nl/nieuws-achtergrond/dit-zijn-de-zes-belangrijkste-fronten-in-oekraine-om-in-de-gaten-te-houden~b517aeed/

Ukrainian army achieves first Russian defence line with anti-tank moat and dragon's teeth-
Footage has emerged for the first time of a Ukrainian armoured vehicle near the first prepared Russian defence line in the south of the country. A video circulating on social media shows a vehicle getting stuck on an anti-tank ditch with hundreds of so-called 'dragon's teeth' in the foreground as well. The footage was taken from a Russian military position and presumably shows a Ukrainian military vehicle driving through a field towards a ditch, with an impressive row of dragon's teeth - pyramid-shaped concrete blocks that serve as barriers against tanks - behind it. It is possible that minefields also lie between the two lines. A man also appears in the picture, presumably the driver, who starts running back towards a row of trees. When the vehicle reaches the ditch, there is a large cloud of smoke. A second later, the vehicle seems to disappear and get stuck in the ditch. It is as yet unclear what exactly is happening. It is possible that the armoured vehicle was remotely piloted and no longer contained Ukrainian troops. Pro-Ukrainian channels claim it is their forces testing whether a vehicle can get over the ditch and the infamous dragon's teeth, while pro-Russian channels claim the military vehicle fell prey to one of their attacks.

The video was taken by a Russian drone in Zaporizhzhya province, on the front between the occupied villages of Robotyne and Verbove towards the latter place. This suggests that the Ukrainian army may be trying to bypass Robotyne via its flank. Through this sector of the front, the intention would be to eventually reach Melitopol via the town of Tokmak. Tokmak is 25 kilometres from the current front, while Melitopol is another 80 kilometres away. Previous satellite images of the field in question also show the anti-tank trench and dragon's teeth. They are part of a particularly extensive network of Russian defence lines built throughout southern and eastern Ukraine on and behind the front in recent months. It is the first time images of Ukrainians now reaching that line have surfaced. In some places, however, there are three to five such lines in a row, with about 10 kilometres between them each, which will make it a particularly tough job for the Ukrainian army to overcome them. It is admittedly unknown to what extent the lines are all manned by Russian reserve troops.

Ukrainian troops did manage to retake the village of Staromajorske from the Russians yesterday. Staromajorske is in the Donetsk region, further west from Robotyne and Verbove and just over 100 kilometres from the coastal city of Mariupol, which has been entirely in Russian hands since May last year. In the counter-offensive that has so far been stalled, the capture of the relatively small village counts as a bright spot. A number of small settlements north of the village had earlier been taken by Ukraine. Currently, fighting is said to be going on for Oerozhajne, west of Staromajorske. Staromlynivka, a village a few kilometres further south, seems a logical next target for Ukrainian soldiers. https://www.demorgen.be/oorlog-in-oekraine/oekraiens-leger-bereikt-eerste-russische-verdedigingslinie-met-antitankgracht-en-drakentanden~bbe63ec5/

[mapuc]

The cost !? What have been the cost in manpower and material on both side since this major attack started ?

Yes they have advanced some kilometer but how much did they pay for this ?

Markus

[Dargo]

The cost !? What have been the cost in manpower and material on both side since this major attack started ?

Yes they have advanced some kilometer but how much did they pay for this ?

MarkusHigh these kinda attacks always cost allot, but we do not know, maybe when this is over we will learn think we will be shocked.

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QtL8wDF75_M

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sMwIFlk9tq8

[mapuc]

I copied this part from a Danish article who was posted yesterday

"Russia has largely given up on the idea of winning this war militarily in any conventional sense"

The article didn't explain why or what Putin may come up with if he has given up winning the war conventionally.

Markus

[Jimbuna]

^ Should that be the case then I'm confident we'd be amongst the last to find out/be informed.

[mapuc]

^ Should that be the case then I'm confident we'd be amongst the last to find out/be informed.

Rest of the article was about Economical warfare

Russia has sent extra warship to the Black sea could indicate a blockade of Ukrainian harbours. and thereby prevent grain being shipped this way. Furthermore they have even threaten to sink any merchant who enter Ukraine border/harbour.

Now it is where I'm thinking is Economical warfare outside conventional warfare ?
I thought that it was a part of it.

In my head letters ABC came up when I read the quote I posted earlier.

Markus

[Skybird]

I discussed with somebody today, and he made a good argument for (he was a tanker) that maybe the leopard 1a5 serves the Ukrainians better than the heavier western tanks leo2, m1, chally2. Because it weighs around 20 tons less. The other tanks need weight confomal lorry trailers the Ukraine has not had, and many bridges also do not allow 60 tons of steel monster. Next he said the leo1 needs a smaller variety of technical spare parts, easing logistical pressure. We do not see many, if any, tank on tank duels, we're the Western tanks may shine, and the leo1 is not faster than Russian tanks - except in reverse. It must not expose its flanks when moving back, Russian tanks indeed turn in place to move back from their position in forward gears, if they simply reverse, they move with the speed of a pedestrian. Artillery and missile take out a leo1 as well as an Abrams, and if tank on tank does not occur, there is no need to buy the weight issues to get a fast tank into play.
Good arguments, but all this is theory. We will know for real once Germany has handed over those 100+ leopard 1s.


Leo1s have better fire control systems, optics, EMES of first generation, and are more comfortable for the crew.

[Catfish]

How about some Nato ships escorting grain convoys to Turkey, preferrably escorted by turkish NATO ships.
Let's see if Putin attacks those –

[August]

How about some Nato ships escorting grain convoys to Turkey, preferrably escorted by turkish NATO ships.
Let's see if Putin attacks those –


I'd like to see that too.

[Jeff-Groves]

and the leo1 is not faster than Russian tanks - except in reverse.
You sure he wasn't referring to the French Tanks?
:hmmm:

[Dargo]

In the Robotyne operational sector, elements of the Armed Forces of Ukraine have effectively breached the first line of defense of the Russian "Surovikin" line. As previously stated, the second line has been reached in the vicinity of Verbove.
https://i.postimg.cc/s2kDFM3M/F2-Iuhu-DXo-AIMrg-L.jpg
https://twitter.com/astraiaintel/status/1684964713044615183

[Dargo]

African Union leader finds Putin offer not enough
African Union President Azali Assoumani said at the conclusion of the Africa-Russia summit in St Petersburg that Putin's offer to provide grain to Africa selflessly was not enough. Comoros President Assoumani said there should also be a truce between Russia and Ukraine. According to him, Putin has shown a willingness to negotiate and "the other side must now be persuaded to engage in talks as well". Putin told his African guests that he is ready to negotiate in the conflict with Ukraine, which he said is set against the backdrop of years of threats to Russia's security by the US and by NATO. But Russia cannot force Ukraine to come to the table, the Russian leader said

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has repeatedly said he does not want to negotiate a truce until all territories in Ukraine that have fallen into the hands of Russians or pro-Russian Ukrainians since 2014 are first recaptured. That includes the majority ethnically Russian Crimea and the eastern territories that have been in revolt against the central government in Kyiv since 2014. The Kremlin has stressed that a deal to end hostilities was already around in Istanbul last year, but Ukraine is said to have pulled out at the last minute, according to the Kremlin under pressure from Washington and London. Putin has visited nearly 20 presidents and heads of government and numerous other dignitaries from the continent that has 54 independent states. Putin has said to cancel debts and promised grain, fertiliser, visa-free travel for Africans and much more economic and military cooperation. He also "treated" his guests to statements about fighting "Western neocolonialism" and claims of reparations for African countries that have been colonies of a European country.

[mapuc]

The major key here is Crimea and secondly Luhansk and Donbas.

I say return Luhansk and Donbas to Ukraine and let Crimea have some kind of autonome independence from Ukraine-Which it had before 2014.

Markus

[Skybird]

You sure he wasn't referring to the French Tanks?
:hmmm:
Yes. Western tanks are quite fast in reverse. Russian tanks not, 5km/h or so. ;) In forward, it depends, could be that later T-72 models were a bit faster than the Leopard-1, but Leo1 is faster in reverse in every case, much faster, also, it scores quite high in accelerating. The T-72 however was a big improvements in forward speed compared to older Russian tanks before. In reverese, its a crawler, AFAIK.



This reverse speed can be very decisive especially in defence, and tanks in turret down defence positions then rocketing forward to hull down to fire, and for reloading again reverse into turret down. And from Ukraine we see videos when T-72s are under fire from their frontal arc, they do not simply reverse, but they try to turn, exposing flanks, even rears. The risk they would take if simply reversing, is too big because they would take eons to reverse into safety, they turn so that they can race away with forward movement speed. Modern tanks like Leopard 2 and Abrams can go in reverse almost as fast as they move forward, and they accelerate faster, the Leo more so than the Abrams, but the Abrams reaches a slightly higher top speed. Thats what I red about the older versions at least.


Want to learn about tank speeds: Go into Steel Beasts Pro, all the tanks are there, line them upo in a scneario, and then go with them in reverse. You will be shocked how slow Russian tanks crawl in reverse, or the M-60 went in forward.

But I also remember that a couple of days ago an Ukrainian commander complained about the French AMX scout tanks, saying they had good sights and a reasonable good weapon, but that they hat several vehicles blowing up after beign hit and crews being a total loss due to these tanks being thin-skinned. Unsuited for nea rfrint aciton, he sdaid, and he voice dhis suspciion that some nations use Ukraine to cheaply dump their old equipment. The Leo-1 also is thin-skinned. Compare that to that video from one week ago or so that showed a Leopard-2A6 taking two or even three missile hits before having to be given up, it got very severly rocked up repeatedly , but the crew escaped, all four, unharmed. As the BBC headlined two days agao: Western armour gets stuck in those defence lines the Russians have established - but it gives its crews much better protection. Many of the taken out Bradleys also had their crews and teams aboard all saved and unharmed.

[Jimbuna]

How about some Nato ships escorting grain convoys to Turkey, preferrably escorted by turkish NATO ships.
Let's see if Putin attacks those –

I'd be all for that :yep:

[Jimbuna]

You sure he wasn't referring to the French Tanks?
:hmmm:

:haha:

I think Sky failed to detect the humour Jeff :)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CPfb-Ctz_OY

[Reece]

How about some Nato ships escorting grain convoys to Turkey, preferrably escorted by turkish NATO ships.
Let's see if Putin attacks those –

I'd be all for that :yep:


boy would Poo-tin kick up a stink!! :yep:

[Catfish]

Imagine being bombarded with this crap 24/7 on TV :doh:

Russian propagandist Skabeyeva has a discussion with another propagandist:

"We are ready to wage war with Turkey. Erdogan claims the Black Sea."
"Olya, we won't go to war with Turkey."
"What about Bulgaria, Romania? We'll just hit them, maybe?"
"Olya, we have to finish in Ukraine first, let's not be thoughtless and overconfident."

Propagandist Skabeyeva is very eager to start a war with one of the NATO countries.

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1682395286323228672?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5 Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1682395286323228672%7Ctwgr% 5E909699d8393a2e49fef178e4320dd0193729b854%7Ctwcon %5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fs9e.github.io%2Fiframe%2Ftwi tter.min.html1682395286323228672

[tonschk]

Ukraine Loses Over 700 Soldiers In A Day As Russian Army Repels 30 Attacks In Donetsk

https://www.hostpic.org/images/2307291709360317.png (https://www.hostpic.org/view.php?filename=2307291709360317.png)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mItTLZgrGeM

[Skybird]

:haha:

I think Sky failed to detect the humour Jeff :)



Äh - I must think about that for a while...


:haha:

[Catfish]

:haha:
I think Sky failed to detect the humour Jeff :) [...]
ju no vee haff no umor :O:
I guess it might have something to do with the white french national flag :hmmm:

[Catfish]

African leaders tell Putin: 'We have a right to call for peace'

- Africans call on Putin to return to Black Sea grain deal
- African leaders say war in Ukraine directly affects them
- Kremlin leader defends Russian stance, blames Ukraine and West
- Second day of summit in St Petersburg

"African leaders pressed Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday to move ahead with their plan to end the Ukraine conflict and to renew a deal crucial to Africa on the safe wartime export of Ukrainian grain, which Moscow tore up last week."

While not directly critical of Russia, their interventions on the second day of a summit were more concerted and forceful than those that African countries have voiced until now.

https://www.reuters.com/world/putin-tells-african-leaders-moscow-is-studying-their-ukraine-proposal-2023-07-28/

[Jimbuna]

ju no vee haff no umor :O:
I guess it might have something to do with the white french national flag :hmmm:

If I had to hazard a guess I'd say your most probably correct :03:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=excszfdb_Ls

[Skybird]

African leaders also implied that Ukraine must accept land losses to negotiate "peace" of which Africans then want to benefit (regarding grain). They did not really care for Russia being the aggressor and implied that the victim "must be made" willing to negotiate with Russia (again implied: at Russia's terms).

That is no surprise, since only those African leaders went there who are more or less allied with Russia or friendly to it and its war of aggression, the other nations being more neutral only sent their second and third rank diplomatic teams. Significantly less leaders followed Putin's invitation than the last time. More than half of them from last time stayed at home.

Africans were better off to let Putin stand in the rain and make it clear they make HIM respon sible for the grain shortages.

It became clear what I said already last spring and summer, that this war also is about eliminating Ukraine as a grain dealer so that Russia's dominant role on the globe becomes even more dominant and allows it to dictate prices. This from beginning on also was a war about grain and controlling (=owning) the rich fertile farming ground of Ukraine, besides controlling (=owning) its heavy industry and mining business. And where they cannot have it, they make it uninhabitable and unusable for Ukrainians. "If we cannot have what we want, then nobody shall have it, even if it was somebody else's from beginning on."

Brutal bandit pack. Since centuries and centuries, always the same story with Russia. It will never be anything more than this: a brutal bandit and plunderer . All glory Putins calls out for, is just greed and brutality: no trace of glory or honour or morality.

[ET2SN]

Imagine being bombarded with this crap 24/7 on TV :doh:

Russian propagandist Skabeyeva has a discussion with another propagandist:

"We are ready to wage war with Turkey. Erdogan claims the Black Sea."
"Olya, we won't go to war with Turkey."
"What about Bulgaria, Romania? We'll just hit them, maybe?"
"Olya, we have to finish in Ukraine first, let's not be thoughtless and overconfident."

Propagandist Skabeyeva is very eager to start a war with one of the NATO countries.

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1682395286323228672?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5 Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1682395286323228672%7Ctwgr% 5E909699d8393a2e49fef178e4320dd0193729b854%7Ctwcon %5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fs9e.github.io%2Fiframe%2Ftwi tter.min.html1682395286323228672


Right, and I still want to take Brooke Shields to the prom. :roll::smug:

[Jimbuna]

It became clear what I said already last spring and summer, that this war also is about eliminating Ukraine as a grain dealer so that Russia's dominant role on the globe becomes even more dominant and allows it to dictate prices. This from beginning on also was a war about grain and controlling (=owning) the rich fertile farming ground of Ukraine, besides controlling (=owning) its heavy industry and mining business. And where they cannot have it, they make it uninhabitable and unusable for Ukrainians. "If we cannot have what we want, then nobody shall have it, even if it was somebody else's from beginning on."

Brutal bandit pack. Since centuries and centuries, always the same story with Russia. It will never be anything more than this: a brutal bandit and plunderer . All glory Putins calls out for, is just greed and brutality: no trace of glory or honour or morality.

Sums it up quite succinctly :yep:

[Exocet25fr]

Not only French Tanks.....:D

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O1coyAryvfs

[Skybird]

^ Old now. (The crews of the AMX usually also got killed, where as the Leopard and Bradley crews usually escape, shaken, but alive. Some months ago there was feedback that the Ukrainians absolutely love the German Marder for its robustness - that "outdated" old Marder, who would have guessed so... ).

And its the HT - beware.

The truth is that tank-on-tank combat is virtually non-existent in this war, and so many of the typical superiority features for which the Wetsern modenr tanks were designed do not apply. Against artillery and missiles and mines all tanks are vulnerable, Western and Eastenr, modern and old ones alike. But if taken out, the survivability chance for the crew is much higher in modern Western tanks.

Truth also is that apparently the rate of Ukrainain losses is climbing again, they are apparently stuck in sequential and singular actions instead of simultaneously conducted combined-arms warfare, critits say. Thsi criticism sticks around since longer tiome now so that I assume there is something true in it.

[Jimbuna]

The Hindustan Times :O:

[Skybird]

First Abrams go to Germany for last steps of refurbishment in August, and to Ukraine in September.

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/07/27/u-s-expects-to-begin-delivering-abrams-tanks-to-ukraine-in-september-00108635


Mine-proof tracks would be helpful. :O:

[mapuc]

^ Then I did heard it right when I heard it some month ago.

I say in the future MBT's will change in construction and equipment

It has shown in todays war that they are sitting ducks easy to hit and destroy.

Even though there's a difference between older tanks and newer where the newer can withstand multiple hits and the crew still survive.

Markus

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xbms5iukQDI

[tonschk]

RUSSIAN FPV DRONE CATCHES UKROPS PLAYING PHONE GAMES ON THEIR PHONE JUST BEFORE THEIR VEHICLE BLOWS UP

https://www.bitchute.com/video/SSTHWvIT1rfF/

https://www.hostpic.org/images/2307300107070284.png (https://www.hostpic.org/view.php?filename=2307300107070284.png)

[mapuc]

^ Of course he is playing games, 'cause the Ruskies is running for their life, so he has time to play.

Markus

[Catfish]

Not only French Tanks.....:D [...]
I wonder why you love those brutal russian invaders so much.
But hey, Russia still holds the record for tank turret long throws.

[August]

I wonder why you love those brutal russian invaders so much.
But hey, Russia still holds the record for tank turret long throws.




I wonder about that too.

[Jeff-Groves]

He probably only eats Twix lefts.

[mapuc]

We all have a political and social standpoint
Some support Ukraine(A majority of us does)
Some support Russia(Only a few of us does)

You may not like what they write about the war i.e pro-Russian propaganda, well then I suggest you put these people on the ignore list.

Just a thought

Markus

[Catfish]

We all have a political and social standpoint
[...]
You may not like what they write about the war i.e pro-Russian propaganda, well then I suggest you put these people on the ignore list.
Nah.. just expose them publicly :D

[mapuc]

Nah.. just expose them publicly :D


One thing I can say about these two members is that they are brave. Yes going against the majority who support Ukraine is bravely. (the only thing I do is respect their standpoint, but that's it)
Ok some may say otherwise(That they aren't exactly clever)

Markus

[Skybird]

^ Then I did heard it right when I heard it some month ago.

I say in the future MBT's will change in construction and equipment

It has shown in todays war that they are sitting ducks easy to hit and destroy.

Even though there's a difference between older tanks and newer where the newer can withstand multiple hits and the crew still survive.

Markus
Or new ways of countering drones get developed. Jamming. EMP. Jamming in parts already now affects Ukrainian drone activity and blocks it, compared ot the totloa freedom they enjoyed in the early months of the war. No other army runs so much jamming stuff and equipment and has it distributed in the field like the Russians.

Of course the other side will then learn how to take out jammers and EMP weapon carriers.

The race is an old one, and it will never end.

Personally I see the overwhelming dependency on electronics, GPS and satellites as one big archilles heel of Western and especially the American army. Its comvfortable and allows a lot - if it works, but its also a hard to tolerate level of tehzcnological dependency, and I dont trust it that blindly.
That also is reflected by the Ukrianian demand to get the German Taurus curise mssile, it is quite similiar to Storm Shadow, with one big difference. Storm Shadow only has GPS navigation, and if that link to the satellite gets jammed - which the Russians repeatedly have succeeded to do with Storm Shadows -, then that missiles goes more or less astray. The Taurus has a second navigation system basing on inertia navigation - it still can strike with precision even if the GPS link gets jammed. Thats a big difference.


Putin can trust his old SPD buddies, however. Scholz so far is strictly forbidding to deliver Taurus. He does not want to ruin chances for later relations, and is too cowardly to take responsibility, instead once again hides behind the big and wide American shoulders. Blasé AH. You can't even measure that much smallness of character anymore, it simply falls below the minimum value on the scale.

[tonschk]

SCARY, THE WHOLE CONVOY OF NATO TERRORISTS BLOW UP TO PIECES BY RUSSIAN ARMY

https://www.bitchute.com/video/TdXFVNlpv5Pn/

https://www.hostpic.org/images/2307300325260300.png (https://www.hostpic.org/view.php?filename=2307300325260300.png)

[ET2SN]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XZCTrcOITW4


:hmmm:

When you're losing, bad, double down. :doh:

[Skybird]

Suwalki gap, hear hear. I almost waited for the Wagners in Belarus to move at its direction.

Maybe we should mine the transit corridor to Russian forward base Krolewiec. The corridor is, as I understand, Polish or Lithuanian territory, so both nations are free to do on their soil whatever they want. It does not belong neither to Russia nor Krolewiec.

At that opportunity maybe mine access to Krolewiec harbours as well.

Just as a special exercise, of course. Like a special operation is claimed by some to not be a war, a special exercise may be claimed by others to not be mine laying. :smug:


---------------------------------------------


It seems Ukraine has conducted another attack on the Kerch bridge, this time on the railbridge. The russians said they shot down all 12 missiles, but they also said they had already killed more Leopards than had been delivered. Ukraine states that the attack were successful.

[ET2SN]

So, this stuff is confusing. :doh:

Besides CNN, here's another article I found:

https://notesfrompoland.com/2023/07/29/wagner-forces-in-belarus-have-moved-towards-suwalki-gap-for-hybrid-attack-on-poland-says-pm/


Its possible this is dis-information and I'm posting it just to put it out there. You be the judge (Seriously, I don't know what to make of it).

:hmmm:

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qI_8OEaM1u8

[Jimbuna]

It would appear the alcoholic has been sniffing the barmaids apron again.

Vladimir Putin's right-hand man Dmitri Medvedev has warned the West of "global nuclear fire" if Ukraine's counteroffensive proves successful.

The comments come as Ukraine is reportedly close to making a breakthrough after launching massive assaults against Russian positions in the south of the country.

"Our Armed Forces, repelling the counteroffensive of the collective enemy, protect the citizens of Russia and our land. This is obvious to all decent people. But beyond that, they prevent world conflict," Medvedev wrote on Telegram.

He warned that if Ukraine seized "Russian land" - possibly a reference to the illegally annexed Crimean peninsula - there would be a nuclear war with the West.

Medvedev added: "Imagine that the offensive of the Ukrobanderites [sic] with the support of NATO was successful and they seized part of [Russian] land, then we would have to, by the rules of the decree of the President of Russia, go for the use of nuclear weapons.

"There is simply no other way out. Therefore, our enemies must pray for our warriors. They do not allow the global nuclear fire to flare up."

The comments come after Ukraine's top defense official said Kyiv's forces would move to liberate Crimea "soon".
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/putin-s-right-hand-man-threatens-global-nuclear-fire-if-ukraine-seizes-russian-land/ar-AA1exDmM?ocid=mailsignout&pc=U591&cvid=3b4324516ccc4852ab4d259f959d0980&ei=28

Let them try I say and I just love one of the associated responses below.

The Poles would relish the chance to let all their new toys off the chain; MBTs from Korea, HIMARS from America and the new Polish IFVs, it'll give new meaning to the words Seal Clubbing.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BskY_u89VFk

[Skybird]

https://www-focus-de.translate.goog/politik/ausland/ukraine-krise/neues-mobilisierungsgesetz-militaerexperte-putin-bereitet-sich-auf-einen-noch-groesseren-krieg-vor_id_200457367.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp


With a new mobilization law, Russia's President Putin is creating the conditions to maximize Russia's military clout. Military expert Alexander Gabuev sees an even greater intention behind the law: Putin is preparing for an even bigger war.Or a second one, somewhere else.

And why not, he sees that the stupid Europeans refuse to fill up their military arsenals and to replace the ammo they have given to Ukraine, and that they lack the reserves to fight a war with the intensity of ammo expenditure like we see in Ukraine. NATO would run out of ammo after a few days.

I do not rule out an attack on the Baltic states or Poland anymore. As weak as Europe now is, its as best a chance as it will ever get. And a bit disconnected from reality Putler obviously is. And close to the end of his life anyway, so he has nothing to lose: he can play and dish out his cards with both hands.

In the Germany thread just today I posted a link to an article on the ammo situation. Germany has artillery ammunition one third of that what the Russians fired in Ukraine in one day in spring this year. 20,000 rounds, not more, the Germans have left, Spiegel reported. In Spring, Russia fired 20-60 thousand per day. The Bundeswehr is a bad joke, good in filling out formulas and in several copies, and not more. Worst of it: the government does not even care to plan for ever doing what is needed to change that, just ignores it and covers it with verbal smoke screens.

I do not understand why the baltic states count so heavily on Germany. That trust is completely and in every regard unfounded.

[Reece]

Just give Ukraine some nukes, that should stop the Russian threats!! :yep:

[mapuc]

It would appear the alcoholic has been sniffing the barmaids apron again.

Vladimir Putin's right-hand man Dmitri Medvedev has warned the West of "global nuclear fire" if Ukraine's counteroffensive proves successful.

The comments come as Ukraine is reportedly close to making a breakthrough after launching massive assaults against Russian positions in the south of the country.

"Our Armed Forces, repelling the counteroffensive of the collective enemy, protect the citizens of Russia and our land. This is obvious to all decent people. But beyond that, they prevent world conflict," Medvedev wrote on Telegram.

He warned that if Ukraine seized "Russian land" - possibly a reference to the illegally annexed Crimean peninsula - there would be a nuclear war with the West.

Medvedev added: "Imagine that the offensive of the Ukrobanderites [sic] with the support of NATO was successful and they seized part of [Russian] land, then we would have to, by the rules of the decree of the President of Russia, go for the use of nuclear weapons.

"There is simply no other way out. Therefore, our enemies must pray for our warriors. They do not allow the global nuclear fire to flare up."

The comments come after Ukraine's top defense official said Kyiv's forces would move to liberate Crimea "soon".
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/putin-s-right-hand-man-threatens-global-nuclear-fire-if-ukraine-seizes-russian-land/ar-AA1exDmM?ocid=mailsignout&pc=U591&cvid=3b4324516ccc4852ab4d259f959d0980&ei=28

Let them try I say and I just love one of the associated responses below.



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BskY_u89VFk

I can summon it up to one word

Desperation.

Markus

[Rockstar]

I doubt war is coming to Europe, as it appears Russia is having a hard time continuing the one in Ukraine.

"The US believes that Shoigu went to North Korea for weapons", - Blinken

"We see that in order to continue its aggression against Ukraine, Russia desperately needs support, weapons, wherever it can find them," Blinken said during his visit to Australia.

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rr7Wrf1INvs

[Skybird]

I doubt war is coming to Europe,
War already is in Europe. ;)



"The US believes that Shoigu went to North Korea for weapons", - Blinken

"We see that in order to continue its aggression against Ukraine, Russia desperately needs support, weapons, wherever it can find them," Blinken said during his visit to Australia.
Yes, but also do not forget what I mentioned about the empty ammo stores of NATO militaries in Europe. The problem is not just in Germany, Germany is onyl the most prominent name on this problem list.


https://www.subsim.com/radioroom/showpost.php?p=2878554&postcount=2026

[tonschk]

The Russian Forces Have Broken Through In Great Strength


https://www.hostpic.org/images/2307302242050310.png (https://www.hostpic.org/view.php?filename=2307302242050310.png)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GSpQ5leon10

[Exocet25fr]

Anyway......

Moscow does not want a conflict with the Western-led bloc but is ready for any outcome, Russian president says :oops:

The Russian military has reported a total of 23 dangerous incidents involving its aircraft and those of the US-led coalition since early 2023, said Admiral Oleg Gurinov, the head of the Russian Reconciliation Center for Syria. Most incidents took place in July, he added.

In 11 cases, Russian pilots recorded being targeted by Western weapon systems. Such provocations by the US-led coalition led to the automatic engagement of onboard defense systems which released decoy flares, the admiral told journalists.

Moscow has also repeatedly warned Washington and its allies about the risks of a potential direct conflict between Russia and NATO, particularly amid the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Continued Western arms supplies to Kiev only extend the hostilities and force its Western backers to engage more deeply in the conflict, Russia claims.

https://www.rt.com/russia/580528-russia-is-ready-for-confrontation/

[mapuc]

This Mr. Macgregor is used a lot by those who is either critical towards Ukraine or support Russia.

Markus

[Skybird]

McGregor and Scott Ritter are to be found in the same drawer. One wonders if they get a Russian pension.

[Jimbuna]

McGregor and Scott Ritter are to be found in the same drawer. One wonders if they get a Russian pension.

Which is part of the reason it is best to simply ignore a couple of Orc supporters who are currently allowed around these parts.

[tonschk]

NATO-Trained Ukrainian Unit Loses 9 Of 10 U.S.-Made Maxxpros; Mine Resistant Vehicles Bombed

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eHBV4D2H3TU

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T37waO512cI

[Skybird]

Past tense, please. Mariupol was 15 months ago. If you are going to spread Russian fascist propaganda, then please try harder, otherwise not only the entertainment value will be lost, but we also have to assume that you think we are all completely stupid, and that would be very impolite of you.

[tonschk]

Sorry my mistake I didnt check by the newest date first and removed post

[Skybird]

Strategic sitrep and assessment.

https://www-achgut-com.translate.goog/artikel/die_asymmetrie_der_offensive?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp

[Skybird]

Ukraine's naval drones cause losses and serious headaches for the Russians - and serious costs.

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/07/30/europe/ukraine-drones-black-sea-intl/index.html


"It is very difficult for them to get into such a small drone, it is very difficult to find it,” the developer says. “The speed of these drones exceeds any sea craft in the Black Sea region at the moment.”
(...)

“I think it will be five to 10 years or more before they (Russians) can effectively counter this type of equipment,” he says. “Their equipment is from the 20th century, ours is from the 21st. There are 100 years between us.”I wonder whether the US navy in its confrontaiton with Iranian speed boats has to learn some unexpected lessons here? Underestimating them maybe?

[Jimbuna]

Past tense, please. Mariupol was 15 months ago. If you are going to spread Russian fascist propaganda, then please try harder, otherwise not only the entertainment value will be lost, but we also have to assume that you think we are all completely stupid, and that would be very impolite of you.

You're a far superior diplomat than I am :)

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RtxD6TXXHhM

[Jeff-Groves]

You're a far superior diplomat than I am :)
Yeah. I was going to suggest that he TAG those posts with

WARNING! BULL SCAT AHEAD!

:har:

[mapuc]

^^ They are desperate

They are pressed up in a corner and now they are showing teeth.

Markus

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ryi5qZvUhYI

[mapuc]

When Sweden has become a NATO member I don't know-They will be a member that's for sure.

There are two countries who's Parliament need to approve Sweden's membership.

Hungary and Turkey.

Each of them have their own reason the either prevent it or to stall it.

Did you know that there are ordinary Swedish citizens who burns the Quran in front of the Turkish Ambassador-They do this to prevent Sweden becoming a NATO member.

Markus

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2mYfct6XyVs

[mapuc]

The Ukrainian army will target 14 Russian cities including Moscow on August 24

https://twitter.com/YourAnonOne/status/1685761447433785344

Markus

[Skybird]

No word on when I will become rich?

[mapuc]

No word on when I will become rich?

You're right I should have added

I'll believe it when I see it or hear about it.

Why!? Why giving away a surprise ? what is the psychological in this ?

Markus

[tonschk]

The West sells out Ukraine as counteroffensive flops

https://www.hostpic.org/images/2308010755570315.png (https://www.hostpic.org/view.php?filename=2308010755570315.png)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9LIDmEHFq4A

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A7QyZpG_vQw

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wfOlrg6J-Eo

[Skybird]

Three freighters ignored the wanigns by Russia and headed for Ukraine, under close surveillance by NATO planes. The yuhave reahce dtheir desotnaiton harbour and will be loaded with grain.

It is not known whether Russia's navy was unwilling or unable to intercept them. We will never known if NATO would have militarily intervened with its planes if the Russians would have escalated .

The Russians imo, and I may be wrong here, would have little legal argument if they would attack international ships inside 12nm territorial waters of sovereign states that are NATO members. If freighters leaving Ukraine harbours make it through Ukrainian or international waters and then into the national waters of Romania, Bulgaria, Turkey and to the Bosporus, from a legal standpoint they would be "safe" from the moment on they slide from ukrianain into Romanian waters. Or not? Anyone knowing the specific details of this scenario?

[Catfish]

Meanwhile Medyedyev threatens with nuclear retaliation, if Ukraine wins the war, or cuts off a part of Russia.

While Putin defines what Russia is :haha:

[Jimbuna]

Three freighters ignored the wanigns by Russia and headed for Ukraine, under close surveillance by NATO planes. The yuhave reahce dtheir desotnaiton harbour and will be loaded with grain.

It is not known whether Russia's navy was unwilling or unable to intercept them. We will never known if NATO would have militarily intervened with its planes if the Russians would have escalated .

The Russians imo, and I may be wrong here, would have little legal argument if they would attack international ships inside 12nm territorial waters of sovereign states that are NATO members. If freighters leaving Ukraine harbours make it through Ukrainian or international waters and then into the national waters of Romania, Bulgaria, Turkey and to the Bosporus, from a legal standpoint they would be "safe" from the moment on they slide from ukrianain into Romanian waters. Or not? Anyone knowing the specific details of this scenario?

I doubt NATO would intervene in such a scenario but once it tok place I'd like to think NATO would create a convoy system for protection purposes.

Meanwhile Medyedyev threatens with nuclear retaliation, if Ukraine wins the war, or cuts off a part of Russia.

While Putin defines what Russia is :haha:

I believe Medvedev is the loose cannon and therefore potentially the more dangerous of the two.

God only knows what the future holds if he eventually replaces Putin for whatever reason.

[Jimbuna]

This is quite interesting and believable....at least it's not from the Hindustan Times :)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xNE3RK-wq9g

[mapuc]

Is NATO taking a more active role in this war by giving air support to civilian freighters/merchants ?

Markus

[Jimbuna]

No more than that already in place but I'd have thought things could quickly be ramped up if the Orcs choose to escalate.

[Skybird]

I doubt NATO would intervene in such a scenario but once it tok place I'd like to think NATO would create a convoy system for protection purposes.

If that were true, it means Russia can attack ships in NATO's territorial waters (12nm zone) without consequences. Thinking that to the end means Russia can also shoot down planes in NATO airpace without NATO reacting to that.

I think if that were true, and by guts feeling I doubt it, then NATO can do itself away and leave the stage of history, because then one must expect that even a Russian attack on NATO soil would not have an according reaction. What use would NATO then have?

[mapuc]

If that were true, it means Russia can attack ships in NATO's territorial waters (12nm zone) without consequences. Thinking that to the end means Russia can also shoot down planes in NATO airpace without NATO reacting to that.

I think if that were true, and by guts feeling I doubt it, then NATO can do itself away and leave the stage of history, because then one must expect that even a Russian attack on NATO soil would not have an according reaction. What use would NATO then have?

I've tried to find some news about this without any luck-Not meaning it hasn't happened.

The only article I could find regarding this grain issue is that Ukraine and Croatia have made a deal, so grain from Ukraine can be shipped from Croatian harbours.

Following Russia’s pullout from the Black Sea Grain Initiative, Croatia has agreed to the use of its ports on the Danube River and Adriatic Sea to transport Ukrainian grain to international markets.

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/20081

Markus

[Ostfriese]

Meanwhile Medyedyev threatens with nuclear retaliation



How often has he done that by now? Surely a hundred times, right?

[Dargo]

Three freighters ignored the wanigns by Russia and headed for Ukraine, under close surveillance by NATO planes. The yuhave reahce dtheir desotnaiton harbour and will be loaded with grain.

It is not known whether Russia's navy was unwilling or unable to intercept them. We will never known if NATO would have militarily intervened with its planes if the Russians would have escalated .

The Russians imo, and I may be wrong here, would have little legal argument if they would attack international ships inside 12nm territorial waters of sovereign states that are NATO members. If freighters leaving Ukraine harbours make it through Ukrainian or international waters and then into the national waters of Romania, Bulgaria, Turkey and to the Bosporus, from a legal standpoint they would be "safe" from the moment on they slide from ukrianain into Romanian waters. Or not? Anyone knowing the specific details of this scenario?Do not forget China, the main importer of Ukraine grain this import is very important strategical for China an alternative for western grain wonder how happy Xi is with Putin now.

The Russian navy has allowed three cargo ships (Cargo ships, including those flying the Israeli and Greek flags.) to sail unhindered to the Ukrainian port of Izmajil. The ships safely docked Sunday at the port near the Black Sea, which Ukraine uses to export grain. Izmajil is over 200 kilometres south of Odesa, Ukraine's largest port city. Grain exports from Odesa and two other major Ukrainian ports have been closed since Russia cancelled the grain deal. Russia may still stop the three ships as they set course for the Bosporus, should they have picked up grain or other agricultural products. That the Russian navy did not intervene on Sunday is notable because the three cargo ships could easily be tracked. Their transponders made their course and location easily visible. It seems that Russian military is unwilling or unable to forcibly stop and search neutral ships sailing through the Black Sea to Ukraine.

[Jimbuna]

If that were true, it means Russia can attack ships in NATO's territorial waters (12nm zone) without consequences. Thinking that to the end means Russia can also shoot down planes in NATO airpace without NATO reacting to that.

I think if that were true, and by guts feeling I doubt it, then NATO can do itself away and leave the stage of history, because then one must expect that even a Russian attack on NATO soil would not have an according reaction. What use would NATO then have?

Yiu and I are both well aware that NATO is primarily a defensive force but there are limits to that stance and a Russian attack on international shipping would almost certainly be a 'red line' for NATO.

It is for Putin to make the next move and I believe he is still quite a way from exercising his nuclear option.

[Rockstar]

Yiu and I are both well aware that NATO is primarily a defensive force but there are limits to that stance and a Russian attack on international shipping would almost certainly be a 'red line' for NATO.

It is for Putin to make the next move and I believe he is still quite a way from exercising his nuclear option.

Those that really push claims of authority over international waters and trade routes end up like Muammar Gaddafi. Cuba claims some parts of the Old Bahama Channel, but everyone just ignores them.

[Jimbuna]

Those that really push claims of authority over international waters and trade routes end up like Muammar Gaddafi. Cuba claims some parts of the Old Bahama Channel, but everyone just ignores them.

Oh I think Putin is in a different league to your two examples and is capable of causing a lot more damage.

Let him try, that's what I say.

[mapuc]

Let's hope Ukrainian manage to take all the land towards Crimea in the next couple of month.

Going to be interesting if they do, to see Russia's bluff.

Markus

[Dargo]

Let's hope Ukrainian manage to take all the land towards Crimea in the next couple of month.

Going to be interesting if they do, to see Russia's bluff.

MarkusIt is bluff but hope they are stupid and start blockade vessels to Ukraine all their ships will be in range of Ukraine anti-ship cruise missiles. :D

[Catfish]

^ true, but not so easy with the Kilos .. still when Sevastopol falls and comes back to Ukraine Putin will have a hard time for maintenance and re-arming.

[Dargo]

^ true, but not so easy with the Kilos .. still when Sevastopol falls and comes back to Ukraine Putin will have a hard time for maintenance and re-arming.Attacking neutral ships is against international laws so is a blockade note that one ship on Sunday was from Turkey any confrontation between Russia and Turkey could be seen as an attack on a NATO member and Turkey has the key to the Black Sea do not think Russia wants to lose the access to the Black Sea Turkey can blockade any Russian ship, so Russia can not trade grain.

[mapuc]

Attacking neutral ships is against international laws so is a blockade note that one ship on Sunday was from Turkey any confrontation between Russia and Turkey could be seen as an attack on a NATO member and Turkey has the key to the Black Sea do not think Russia wants to lose the access to the Black Sea Turkey can blockade any Russian ship, so Russia can not trade grain.

In my ears it sounds like desperation.

All these teeth less threats is what it is.

Markus

[Dargo]

Over the past 24 hours, at least 12 military enlistment offices have been set ablaze all over Russia, from St. Petersburg to Ulan-Ude (video).
Remarkably, most of these incidents were carried out by women.
https://twitter.com/StateOfUkraine/status/1686405411023298561

[Dargo]

In my ears it sounds like desperation.

All these teeth less threats is what it is.

MarkusCorrect it is desperation Putin has pumped +10% of the Russian state money in this war, the result it failed. He is desperate this war is his fate, he can not stop it without shooting himself any lose or peace will remove him from power. The great Russia is an illusion it is a poorhouse except for Moscow that is all, totally corrupt will never get things done under this regime.

[Skybird]

My question was whether shipping would be save if taking place inside the 12nm zone of Romania, Bulgaria, Turkey.

[mapuc]

Correct it is desperation Putin has pumped +10% of the Russian state money in this war, the result it failed. He is desperate this war is his fate, he can not stop it without shooting himself any lose or peace will remove him from power. The great Russia is an illusion it is a poorhouse except for Moscow that is all, totally corrupt will never get things done under this regime.

Economy isn't exactly my strongest field.

I know how to balance my own economy.

Which country is most corrupt among these two combatant ?

There's rumour going around here in Denmark that the Danish intelligent service is monitoring those Danes who is either critical towards Ukraine and/or support Russia.

It has been some article about it-Where PET and FET said they hadn't any comment.

Markus

[mapuc]

My question was whether shipping would be save if taking place inside the 12nm zone of Romania, Bulgaria, Turkey.

With my little knowledge I would say Yes with 100 % certainty.

Russia may be desperate but I don't thing that they are this desperate.

Markus

[Rockstar]

Oh I think Putin is in a different league to your two examples and is capable of causing a lot more damage.

Let him try, that's what I say.

And China? They claim new territory and waters as their own too and expect everyone to abide by their laws and jurisdiction. We send a message that we do not recognize their claims by sending our armed fleets through their backyard in defiance.

Even Russia knows full well it can’t arbitrarily start sinking ships no matter what flag they fly. Hell, if those ships are in international waters they can’t can’t even board them without permission of the flag state.

[Dargo]

My question was whether shipping would be save if taking place inside the 12nm zone of Romania, Bulgaria, Turkey.Except for drifting mines it will be safe no Russian ship dares to enter the Territorial Sea that is considered to be part of the territory of that state and subject to its sovereignty (defined in the Territorial Sea Act 1987).

[Dargo]

Economy isn't exactly my strongest field.

I know how to balance my own economy.

Which country is most corrupt among these two combatant ?

There's rumour going around here in Denmark that the Danish intelligent service is monitoring those Danes who is either critical towards Ukraine and/or support Russia.

It has been some article about it-Where PET and FET said they hadn't any comment.

MarkusRussia is the most corrupt its regime after the USSR is founded on corruption.

[tonschk]

ERITREA: ISAIAS TOLD PUTIN TO LEAD THE STRATEGY AGAINST THE WEST

https://www.hostpic.org/images/2308020627170365.png (https://www.hostpic.org/view.php?filename=2308020627170365.png)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t678GS-ritQ

[Rockstar]

Except for drifting mines it will be safe no Russian ship dares to enter the Territorial Sea that is considered to be part of the territory of that state and subject to its sovereignty (defined in the Territorial Sea Act 1987).

The other problem Russian warships have is when they transmit clear voice over marine band radio is they immediately give away their position.

[Skybird]

The other problem Russian warships have is when they transmit clear voice over marine band radio is they immediately give away their position.
If they care to send words first.

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MUVUiNY0x38

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KNybuG_vyH4

[Skybird]

https://kyivindependent.com/uk-defense-ministry-russia-builds-major-new-formations-as-reserves-in-ukraine/

https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1686617177497944065


Russia has likely started forming major new formations over the last two months to "add depth to its ground forces" in Ukraine, the U.K. Defense Ministry said (https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1686617177497944065) in its latest intelligence report on Aug. 2.
However, Moscow is unlikely to find enough troops for even one new army without a fresh wave of mandatory mobilization, London believes.
The strategy to build new and self-sufficient formations, such as the 25th Combined Arms Army, is a major shift in Moscow's approach toward using its reserves, the U.K. Defense Ministry commented.
New laws just days ago have prepared the road for that needed widening of mandatory mobilzation.

In this context, my bad feelings about how the war is going, are deepening. While the Ukrainian offensive won in pace, one still is hesitent to speak of "pace", and territorial gains remain to be minor. While they try to move southwards and on Melitopol or the coast south-east of it, they do not get off their spot in reasonable time: roughly 10 km in 8 weeks does not sound encouraging regarding the change of seasons and the passing of time. Time is working against Ukraine. Its main weakness still exists: no real air defence at the front, and it exposes its mechanised units to dramatic Russian air strikes. So they must work their way in small infantry units. That works, okay, but it works slowly and does not rally own combat forces in signfiicant numers in range of the first defence line without beign seen and immediately getting under fire from artillery, drones, gunships and fixed wing CAS.

I am far from being convinced that they can break through that defence zone the Russians were given months of time by Europe to establish. I fear this offensive sooner or later gets stuck, and the front and the war get "frozen".

And that means the Europeans and likely also the Us will start to seriously press Ukraine into accepting territorial losses and agreeing to negotiations that will for the Russians acchieve right this: territorial gains.

I should not feel angry about this, but I do: I predicted this outcome already last year, before summer. I said that in the second half of 2023 the war likely will freeze and Ukraine will start feeling the pressure by the West to accept negotiations - mounting pressure on Ukraine by delivering less and lesser stuff Ukraine needs to continue the war. I mentioned the psychological tiring of the Western public. And its real. Putin knows that, and calculates with it. He is in for the long game now. We are still not. After one and a half year, we are still not.

Thats the sober outlook, the currently most likely scenario, in my view at least. Emotionally, I am anything but sober about this. I see this absolutely as a proxy war by the West, it always was, and its about turning into just another defeat, another war the West has lost ONCE AGAIN. We have become experts in loosing wars and interventions.

I want the support continuing and intensifiying. But I also have no clue where it should come from. And I doubt that it will happen. The Abrams and the Leopard-1s that are still to come, will not make a decisive difference. We should send them, yes, absolutely - but we better should not put our expectations high.


We demanded the Ukraine to give us an offensive while we did not give it what it needed: too few tanks and IFVs and artillery and espoecially too little air defence and no air power. We see what we deserve to see. Ukraine pays the price. Russia can mobilise manpower reserves with which the Ukraine cannot compete. The longer this war last, the more this will come into play. And Putin? Putin needs the war, his interest is not to end it, but to keep it running, that is what he benefits from. Peace now is something that would most likely deal him his polticla and biological death sentence.

[Skybird]

^ Speaking of the devil...



https://www-tagesspiegel-de.translate.goog/internationales/neue-soldaten-robuste-wirtschaft-putin-sucht-keinen-ausweg-er-plant-fur-einen-noch-grosseren-krieg-10245244.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp


-------------------


There are also reports on revolts in Crimea. But it is hard to imagine where these could lead if they do not get support on the ground from the Ukrainian army. And the army is far from marching into Crimea. The revolts and cruise kmsisiles blwoign up arsenals will make life hard for the Rusians. But i cannot imagine them being thrown out by this alone - or the Russian troops themsoeves reovlting against Moscow.

[Jimbuna]

Should Trump become the next POTUS I feel it likely the aid from the USA will cease almost overnight.

[MaDef]

Should Trump become the next POTUS I feel it likely the aid from the USA will cease almost overnight.

In that case Europe would need to step up and take the lead in supplying Ukraine, something I don't think they'll do considering the lackadaisical support they've shown so far. :hmmm:

[Catfish]

^ indeed high time for Europe, who knows which way US politics will turn.

[Skybird]

High time yes, but whatever now should be done/delivered, needs to be prepared first - by producing it. Production needs to be prepared by opening new production lines in the factories. The US for example wants to produce instead of 25000 rounds of artillery ammo per month 90,000 rounds. They will not be able to do so until in two or three years, I red this morning. Rheinmetall has pushed up its propduction capacities, but still it takes years until new tanks get delievred that today see their order placed. Thats why Australia and Poland turned for South Korea instead, even more so since the German economy gets destroyed by the current political couse and nobody can say whether Germany i some years still can support orders that today got placed, arms deals run for 10, 20 years, later service included. Hungary (I think it was Hungary) ordered Leopard-2s in 2018 - and until today has not gotten a single tank from that order. The German Leopards given to Ukraine - will be replaced in years.

All these production plans must be started, yes: but lets be serious, they will not play a big role in this war, not next year, and not in the year after that, if the war runs that long. The truth is: Europe in no way is able to replace American weapon deliveries, its just not possible, and that the political will also does not exist is just an addon complication. And the Americans - also face limitations, their production possibilities also are not infinite. Finaly, the Wetsenr publics get tired of this war. Support for Ukraine is practically everywhere in decline, slowly, but contantly. Bitter. But true.

This war found us most unprepared, that is the simple truth. Putin calculates that Russia all in all, beside all its hurts and pains and complications, nevertheless has the longer breath to support an escalating, widening war, for the RTussian people he miust and does care much less than Western governments must care for their voters. And I do not rule out that in the end he will be shown right. Meanwhile, Europe looses its last footholds in Africa, namely the Sahel. And who is it who takes over there? Guess.


Ukraine has all reasons to be worried.

[Skybird]

In that case Europe would need to step up and take the lead in supplying Ukraine, something I don't think they'll do considering the lackadaisical support they've shown so far. :hmmm:
Militarily, the US gives more than Europe. Financially and in civil aid, Europe gives more than the US. Problem is what is needed most, is material weapons and ammo, while Europe lived through the past decades by learning that it can simply buy itselfself out of problems with money. That works - until it works no more.


https://www.euronews.com/2023/07/28/how-much-has-the-eu-given-to-ukraine-compared-to-the-us

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zxMqNofUipQ

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jeoOaQMpH0g

[tonschk]

Yes Agree :yeah::up::yeah:

[URL] I see this absolutely as a proxy war by the West, it always was, and its about turning into just another defeat, another war the West has lost ONCE AGAIN. We have become experts in loosing wars and interventions.

[mapuc]

It ain't over until the fat lady sings.

Markus

[Skybird]

Yes Agree :yeah::up::yeah:
A war started by fascist Russia to feast on Ukraine, and then the West came into play to help the victim to fight this proxy war. Well - still eager to agree with me?
There are worlds between us.

[tonschk]

ERITREA PRESIDENT REVEAL ON WHO STARTED THE RUSSIA UKRAINE WAR OF WHICH WAS OBVIOUSLY NAZI NATO

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qF0-DSEKEAI

[Catfish]

Nosy Nazi Nato Nasi Goreng and whatever
No twist, spin and bending of reality will turn the total failure of the Naziputin-african meeting into something positive :03:

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gc95kgk3xq4

[Rockstar]

1. Russians suffered 200,000+ killed and wounded
2. Several hundred thousand Russian men have fled the country to avoid the press gangs.
3. Desertion of RU soldiers in combat units now significant.

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TxCDPr6Aie4

[Skybird]

Colonel Reisner's assessment of the current situation and the outlook sound most sober, mildly said. What he says confirmes my subjective impression formed by what I pick up in the media - and what the media do not say. Things do not go well for Ukraine. Minor tactical gains here and there do not change that, but in the East, way north of Bakhmut, Russia's counteroffensive seems to slowly gain ground: two steps forward, one step back.



https://www-n--tv-de.translate.goog/politik/Fuer-einen-Durchbruch-fehlen-der-Ukraine-wesentliche-Voraussetzungen-article24296449.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp

Meanwhile Putin is anythign but close to regime fall, and the economy stubbornly refuses to collapse, too. In fact he obviously prepares a widening and deepening of the war. Russia can mobilse so many more men than Ukraine can, and recent chnage sin laws indicate that this is what will come soon. This will sooner or later become a problem for Ukraine, these new troops may not be well trained and may have low morale, but in war overwhelmingly huge numbers have a charm of their own. Putin seems to be determined to turn Ukraine into a wasteland that serves as a puffer zone between NATO and Russia. And he wants to rip its industrial and agricultural heart out.