Here we go again-Ukraine once again pt2

[Skybird]

[FOCUS] According to Russia, it has made a breakthrough in the Ukrainian town of Ocheretyne (Donetsk Oblast), with troops advancing several kilometers into the village. According to the Telegram channel “Deepstate”, which is close to the Ukrainian military, this was a decisive operation. “Pandora's box has been opened,” writes Deepstate. Russian troops are becoming increasingly entrenched in the region. “An advance towards Progress was stopped by a successful counterattack by the 100th Brigade.”
The breakthrough highlighted problems in the Ukrainian army. “The leadership of the 115th Brigade is responsible for the collapse of the defense in the entire area,” writes the channel. This led to considerable losses. Following this military success, the enemy is now advancing further towards Novokalynove.

-------------

That Ukrainian Telegram channel mentioned Pandora's box. Thats what I wondered when posting #3247 - whether Pandora'S box has been opened or not. I predicted some shorter time ago that the risk of an operational breakthrough of Russia is bigger than ever. This event now is not that - but it could lead to it. Russia may have cut a small but decisive notch in the Ukrainian line of defense - where it can now apply its crowbar.

[Jimbuna]

Vladimir Putin's puppet in deadly warning as he vows to target UK weapons

Apuppet general of Vladimir Putin's regime has said Russia will "increase the intensity of attacks" on British and allied weapons donated to Ukraine.

General Sergei Shoigu has overseen what has been one of the bloodiest conflicts in Russian history since the illegal invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

In recent months the massive front line in the east of Ukraine has seen some gains made by Putin's forces as tanks have taken advantage of warmer weather hardening previously boggy ground.

But despite being outnumbered and outgunned, Ukrainian forces have held firm using tactics like deploying drones to cause havoc with Russian vehicles.

And in the last few days, both the US and UK have pledged to send billions more in funding and aid to help Ukrainian forces in the war, which if Russia were to win would be a huge blow to NATO and world peace.

Now Kremlin Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu has threatened to attack the weapons and supplies sent from the West to Ukraine claiming Russian advances had "dispelled the myth of the superiority of Western weapons".

He said: "We will increase the intensity of attacks on logistics centres and storage bases for Western weapons.

"In proportion to the threats posed by the United States and its allies, we will continue to improve the composition and structure of the Armed Forces and increase the production of the most popular weapons and military equipment."

According to the House of Commons Library, the UK has pledged almost £12 billion in overall support to Ukraine since February 2022.

The House of Commons timeline states Britain has supported Ukraine "providing both lethal and non-lethal weaponry and equipment, including tanks, air defence systems and long-range precision strike missiles.

"While the UK has committed to training Ukrainian fast jet pilots, combat fighter aircraft will not be provided."

On Tuesday Prime Minister Rishi Sunak promised an extra £75 billion in defence spending over the next six years to put the UK arms industry on a "war footing" in the face of threats from an "axis of authoritarian states" including Russia and China.

He said the UK will spend 2.5 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) on defence by 2030 because the world was "the most dangerous it has been since the end of the Cold War".

Mr Sunak also pledged a further £500 million package of military aid to Ukraine.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/vladimir-putin-s-puppet-in-deadly-warning-as-he-vows-to-target-uk-weapons/ar-AA1nzoDA?ocid=msedgntp&pc=U531&cvid=757715d34d824cc2d59318c54e690efd&ei=53

[Dargo]

[FOCUS] According to Russia, it has made a breakthrough in the Ukrainian town of Ocheretyne (Donetsk Oblast), with troops advancing several kilometers into the village. According to the Telegram channel “Deepstate”, which is close to the Ukrainian military, this was a decisive operation. “Pandora's box has been opened,” writes Deepstate. Russian troops are becoming increasingly entrenched in the region. “An advance towards Progress was stopped by a successful counterattack by the 100th Brigade.”
The breakthrough highlighted problems in the Ukrainian army. “The leadership of the 115th Brigade is responsible for the collapse of the defense in the entire area,” writes the channel. This led to considerable losses. Following this military success, the enemy is now advancing further towards Novokalynove.

-------------

That Ukrainian Telegram channel mentioned Pandora's box. Thats what I wondered when posting #3247 - whether Pandora'S box has been opened or not. I predicted some shorter time ago that the risk of an operational breakthrough of Russia is bigger than ever. This event now is not that - but it could lead to it. Russia may have cut a small but decisive notch in the Ukrainian line of defense - where it can now apply its crowbar.Nothing says assured Russian victory quite like them sending their infantry into active battlefields on Chinese golf carts. Confetti! After every town, village shot to rubble Russia face open fields, rivers, etc they must cross with Ukraine on better defence lines turkey shooting no decisive breakthrough only small salients where Russia gone face supply problems with so many drones in the air nobody can here do quick forward pushes. After Bahkmut Russia needed more than a year to prepare this offensive with their high losses in material daily this will stall. Russia has not the reserves, the workforce that you need to win this offensive they're losing weekly what they can bring to the fronts in a month. If you have more than 100k troops more than 500 tanks and so so many bombs and shells after more than 6 months only advance 200 square Km you are not breaking through you are crawling through Ukraine holds the lines and with new supplies will hold it this year draining Russia of its workforce, resources, material and personnel.

[Dargo]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JVxUDEKXbhA

[mapuc]

As I wrote some days ago:

Lets wait until Autumn before we judge the Ukrainians war effort during the Spring and Summer.

I think we will see how well or how badly it have gone then.

Markus

[Dargo]

As I wrote some days ago:

Lets wait until Autumn before we judge the Ukrainians war effort during the Spring and Summer.

I think we will see how well or how badly it have gone then.

MarkusRussia lost this year already more than they can get to the front (a new offensive takes a long time to prepare certainly if you lose everything or more in your last offensive), so spring is lost for them for the summer Ukraine has got the tools to hold back the Russian army give it a couple of weeks we will see a higher rise of Russian loses than we saw in these past 4 months. The US has prepared for this NATO stores are full of tools and munition at the anger about this aid they see as betrayal by republicans, Russia is knowing the situation only will go bad after this passing of this bill. Putin only drive is hope, hoping public opinion can be bombed, hoping the US pulls out of this war, hoping that the will of Ukraine to resist suddenly goes away, etc, etc if that not works we nuke everybody but... nah... that did not work either OK... back to destruction lets hope now... a country that can not even win an offensive against a country that can win an offensive taking back over 12,000 square Km has lost it and will never win here. Ukraine is waiting for them giving them Forrest and villages till the salient is too big, too deep into Ukraine that Russia must cross open fields than they are outflanked, destroyed in the field this is the same strategy where Russian since Catherine II is famous about "deep defence".

[mapuc]

Russia lost this year already more than they can get to the front (a new offensive takes a long time to prepare certainly if you lose everything or more in your last offensive), so spring is lost for them for the summer Ukraine has got the tools to hold back the Russian army give it a couple of weeks we will see a higher rise of Russian loses than we saw in these past 4 months. The US has prepared for this NATO stores are full of tools and munition at the anger about this aid they see as betrayal by republicans, Russia is knowing the situation only will go bad after this passing of this bill. Putin only drive is hope, hoping public opinion can be bombed, hoping the US pulls out of this war, hoping that the will of Ukraine to resist suddenly goes away, etc, etc if that not works we nuke everybody but... nah... that did not work either OK... back to destruction lets hope now... a country that can not even win an offensive against a country that can win an offensive over 2000 square Km has lost it and will never win here.

I must say you are a very optimistic.You turn every negative to something positive-I like that.

I want the Ukrainian to win this war so I hope the new ammo and weapon supply will make Ukraine even better in their offensive. I expect when they got the ammo and weapon they will change warfare from offensive defense to offensive.

Markus

[Dargo]

I must say you are a very optimistic.You turn every negative to something positive-I like that.

I want the Ukrainian to win this war so I hope the new ammo and weapon supply will make Ukraine even better in their offensive. I expect when they got the ammo and weapon they will change warfare from offensive defense to offensive.

MarkusThis is no optimism from me this is what I see from the data publicly on the internet, and it is what most military see also the satellite images, drone footage is there is being annalize'd nobody sees a quick win for Russia, what they gained that last 6 months is tactical not one strategic goal is gained by Russia and Russia is not capable to do big forwards offensives. This is not the Russian fully trained army this is a contract, poorly trained and poorly led army with low moral hardly the will like Ukraine army has.

[Dargo]

$1B U.S. Air Package To Ukraine On Its Way, ATACMS Missiles Already Secretly ProvidedThe package, which includes artillery shells, HIMARS and air defense munitions, comes as Russia is increasing pressure on Ukraine. The Pentagon on Wednesday announced a new $1 billion package of arms for Ukraine, which includes badly needed artillery rounds, munitions for U.S. donated M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, or HIMARS and air defense systems. At the same time, it is coming to light that the U.S. has already supplied additional ATACMS ballistic missiles to Ukraine, and reportedly, for the first time, longer-range variants, under a secret transfer operation, the works of which we have seen recently. The equipment, much of it already stationed in neighboring European countries, is expected to start flowing into Ukraine quickly, Biden said.

"I'm making sure the shipments start right away," said Biden. "In the next few hours, literally in a few hours, will begin sending equipment to Ukraine for air defense munitions, for artillery for rocket systems and armored vehicles." The new Pentagon aid package is the 56th round tranche of equipment provided from the Defense Department to Ukraine under Presidential Drawdown Authority, which means it is coming from existing U.S. stocks.

The capabilities in this announcement include:
RIM-7 and AIM-9M missiles for air defense;
Stinger anti-aircraft missiles;
Small arms and additional rounds of small arms ammunition, including .50 caliber rounds to counter Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS);
Additional ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS);
155mm artillery rounds, including High Explosive and Dual Purpose Improved Conventional Munitions rounds;
105mm artillery rounds;
60mm mortar rounds;
Bradley Infantry Fighting Vehicles;
Mine Resistant Ambush Protected Vehicles (MRAPs);
High Mobility Multipurpose Wheeled Vehicles (HMMWVs);
Logistics support vehicles;
Tactical vehicles to tow and haul equipment;
Tube-Launched, Optically-Tracked, Wire-Guided (TOW) missiles;
Javelin and AT-4 anti-armor systems;
Precision aerial munitions;
Airfield support equipment;
Anti-armor mines;
Claymore anti-personnel munitions;
Demolitions munitions for obstacle clearing; and
Night vision devices; and
Spare parts, field equipment, training munitions, maintenance, and other ancillary equipment.
https://www.twz.com/news-features/1b-u-s-air-package-to-ukraine-on-its-way-atacms-missiles-already-secretly-provided

100 ATACMS were provided under last month's drawdown, including some of the longer range variants, likely M39A1 but possibly M48 & M57s as well. Dzhankoi was struck, but also Berdyansk... https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/24/us/us-ukraine-russia-missiles.html?smid=tw-share

https://i.postimg.cc/9Xsq00Wp/ATACMS.jpg

The US Senate did not need to vote on this aid for Ukraine... because it already did so on 19 May 2022. Biden had some $3.8 billion in PDA money left over from the first aid package, and that equipment is now being shipped in expectation of the new aif package being voted on. https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1782875205544648886

By my calculations the first trucks with fresh US artillery ammo are about now arriving at the frontline. By nightfall russian telegram channels will start to bitch about the level of Ukrainian artillery :-))) $3 billion of materiel on the move. https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1782652490124526013

Believe it or not, the sky did not fall on the Earth, there is no "WW3," no boiling seas, no 40 years of darkness, no earthquakes, no volcanos, no mass hysteria, and no freesing West.

[Skybird]

Nothing says assured Russian victory quite like them sending their infantry into active battlefields on Chinese golf carts. Confetti! After every town, village shot to rubble Russia face open fields, rivers, etc they must cross with Ukraine on better defence lines turkey shooting no decisive breakthrough only small salients where Russia gone face supply problems with so many drones in the air nobody can here do quick forward pushes. After Bahkmut Russia needed more than a year to prepare this offensive with their high losses in material daily this will stall. Russia has not the reserves, the workforce that you need to win this offensive they're losing weekly what they can bring to the fronts in a month. If you have more than 100k troops more than 500 tanks and so so many bombs and shells after more than 6 months only advance 200 square Km you are not breaking through you are crawling through Ukraine holds the lines and with new supplies will hold it this year draining Russia of its workforce, resources, material and personnel.80% of Ukrainian criticla infraxstructre destroeyd. Not damaged - DESTROYED. Most powerplants out of action, the majorit yof nthese - DESTROYED. Civilian production plummeting constantly to new lows. Financially, Ukraine cannot survive by its own means anymore.

Thats what I see.

What I also see: no realistic way for Ukraine to get back the territories occupied by Russia. No Ukriane offensive this year or in the next. No new equipping of 10-15 attack brigades by the West.

The population having lost a significant share of its formner soze, with the threat that they could lose a quarter and more ifm Russia just stay sin the game. Lost mostly due to migration. Thats what I see.

What I dont see, is this: another US aid package like this one being put together this year or the next year, no matter who wins the US election. I dont see European nations compensating for the US dropping out.

Tanks are tools of war - not the objective. You count healdines thatn Ukraine tries to rpouce whenever Rus sia did somethign successful. It is nto that mcub relevant you know. You should have noticed by now that Russia - adapts. It has adapted to the 777s. The Javelins. The Himars. The Leopards and Abrams, the Marders and Bradleys. The Cesar and PZH2000 SPA artillery. It got delayed in doing things - not stopped. It will be like this with rhe Atacms, and the - way too few - Falcons.

Because the root evil remains: Ukraine does get WAY TOO FEW QUANTITIES of everything.

The only thing that Russia finds difficult to adapt to, are the drones. But at least they learned to impose the same problem on the Ukrainians.

Next winter - and there will come a next winter - will be hell in Ukraine.

You pay too much attention to sensational headlines about tactical micro successes here and there. But for the most they do not really mean that much in the bigger scheme of things.

The aid package so far just extends the deadline for Ukraine a little bit. Not more. And Europe refuses to significantly top up the American package. And with what it should want to do that anyway...? We are almost naked.

Germany annoucned to give a third Patriot battery to Ukraine. Of previously 11 batteries, then 8 remain. The call for other European nations to provide additional air defences, went unheard.

New stuff has been ordered by the military, the German and other European armies as well. For the most it will take years before it arrives. One waited two years, sticking the head in the sand. Two years - senselessly wasted.


What it all means by the end of the day? It is still by far not enough. Thats what it means. Not "not enough" by a margin - not enough BY FACTORS.

[Skybird]

After all...

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/ukraine-uses-long-range-atacms-russia-first-time-rcna148309

ATACMS with 300km range and both fragmentation and explosive warheads being used twice, inside Crimea.

[mapuc]

I'm positive I hope that the weapon and ammo that get delivered will mean a good thing for the Ukrainian army and I hope the F16 will make some difference in the air warfare.

Markus

[mapuc]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1O67dnd4ndo&ab_channel=CombatVeteranReacts

Markus

[Dargo]

80% of Ukrainian criticla infraxstructre destroeyd. Not damaged - DESTROYED. Most powerplants out of action, the majorit yof nthese - DESTROYED. Civilian production plummeting constantly to new lows. Financially, Ukraine cannot survive by its own means anymore.

Thats what I see.

What I also see: no realistic way for Ukraine to get back the territories occupied by Russia. No Ukriane offensive this year or in the next. No new equipping of 10-15 attack brigades by the West.

The population having lost a significant share of its formner soze, with the threat that they could lose a quarter and more ifm Russia just stay sin the game. Lost mostly due to migration. Thats what I see.

What I dont see, is this: another US aid package like this one being put together this year or the next year, no matter who wins the US election. I dont see European nations compensating for the US dropping out.

Tanks are tools of war - not the objective. You count healdines thatn Ukraine tries to rpouce whenever Rus sia did somethign successful. It is nto that mcub relevant you know. You should have noticed by now that Russia - adapts. It has adapted to the 777s. The Javelins. The Himars. The Leopards and Abrams, the Marders and Bradleys. The Cesar and PZH2000 SPA artillery. It got delayed in doing things - not stopped. It will be like this with rhe Atacms, and the - way too few - Falcons.

Because the root evil remains: Ukraine does get WAY TOO FEW QUANTITIES of everything.

The only thing that Russia finds difficult to adapt to, are the drones. But at least they learned to impose the same problem on the Ukrainians.

Next winter - and there will come a next winter - will be hell in Ukraine.

You pay too much attention to sensational headlines about tactical micro successes here and there. But for the most they do not really mean that much in the bigger scheme of things.

The aid package so far just extends the deadline for Ukraine a little bit. Not more. And Europe refuses to significantly top up the American package. And with what it should want to do that anyway...? We are almost naked.

Germany annoucned to give a third Patriot battery to Ukraine. Of previously 11 batteries, then 8 remain. The call for other European nations to provide additional air defences, went unheard.

New stuff has been ordered by the military, the German and other European armies as well. For the most it will take years before it arrives. One waited two years, sticking the head in the sand. Two years - senselessly wasted.


What it all means by the end of the day? It is still by far not enough. Thats what it means. Not "not enough" by a margin - not enough BY FACTORS.All those things you fear for ukraine is the normal for russia next winter will be worse for russia as it did for the last one. Russia is in need of a labor forse they need more than 5 million the more they mobilize the more they will need in labor forse. Russia can not get that oil and gas out of the ground without western material and knowlegde. The longer this war prolongs the more we will see Russia having all kind of problems (like the floods, fires, breking down of energy systems, etc) ukraine can with their drones reach russia oil refineries behind the Ural the oil they need for war and war production the longer this war goes on more events will happen that is all caused by putin and his kleptocrate clan this will create situations that putin could lose control. The tinder is there now, it is to wonder who drops the cigarette my prediction is Russia will set itself on fire. They can have billions of shells, I really do not care they will never produce or get those barrels out of stock to fire them in the long run. Ukraine has our support, and we keep them alive who is that for Russia, China? No, it does not want their economy hurt by Europe and the US. Iran? No, it does not matter how many drones they send, it will not mean Russia advance on the battlefield. North Korea? Pfff only thing North Korea has done is creating a cult of starving population yeah they have artillery but not stupid to give to Russia their enemy is South Korea they never send the amount that would hurt their own security. Basically Russia is on its own as history showed it was never great as a pariah. Russia lost it on so many fronts do not kid yourself it can be great in anything for centuries it was backwards and with this same Russian thinking it will stay back wards do not think a country the size economy of Texas can defeat the west. Russia has also a lot of shortages and stupid thing is lubricating oil really explain me why russia could win a country that has so many resources but can not even make enough lubricating oil and did not reach any strategic goal Russia is screwed. Ukraine as tiny country has more retaken than russia has conquerd in two years and the will to fight is still there that is the main win.

[mapuc]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9ChDxQTRuOA&ab_channel=Military%26History

Markus

[mapuc]

All those things you fear for ukraine is the normal for russia next winter will be worse for russia as it did for the last one. Russia is in need of a labor forse they need more than 5 million the more they mobilize the more they will need in labor forse. Russia can not get that oil and gas out of the ground without western material and knowlegde. The longer this war prolongs the more we will see Russia having all kind of problems (like the floods, fires, breking down of energy systems, etc) ukraine can with their drones reach russia oil refineries behind the Ural the oil they need for war and war production the longer this war goes on more events will happen that is all caused by putin and his kleptocrate clan this will create situations that putin could lose control. The tinder is there now, it is to wonder who drops the cigarette my prediction is Russia will set itself on fire. They can have billions of shells, I really do not care they will never produce or get those barrels out of stock to fire them in the long run. Ukraine has our support, and we keep them alive who is that for Russia, China? No, it does not want their economy hurt by Europe and the US. Iran? No, it does not matter how many drones they send, it will not mean Russia advance on the battlefield. North Korea? Pfff only thing North Korea has done is creating a cult of starving population yeah they have artillery but not stupid to give to Russia their enemy is South Korea they never send the amount that would hurt their own security. Basically Russia is on its own as history showed it was never great as a pariah. Russia lost it on so many fronts do not kid yourself it can be great in anything for centuries it was backwards and with this same Russian thinking it will stay back wards do not think a country the size economy of Texas can defeat the west. Russia has also a lot of shortages and stupid thing is lubricating oil really explain me why russia could win a country that has so many resources but can not even make enough lubricating oil and did not reach any strategic goal Russia is screwed. Ukraine as tiny country has more retaken than russia has conquerd in two years and the will to fight is still there that is the main win.

Would this be enough-The will to fight is still there that is the main win ?
As some of you mentioned before-Time is on Russia's side of the war.
When this packages of ammo and weapon supply comes to and end-Will USA send an another Billion big package to Ukraine ?

Markus

[Catfish]

re Dargo

I am not as pessimistic as Skybird (perhaps change his name to 'Sooty Shearwater' (zoologically speaking) ;), but maybe we should not post details of what exactly was delivered (unless intentionally misguiding) for obvious reasons. I know it can be found all over the 'net but why make it easier for Putin...

[mapuc]

re Dargo

I am not as pessimistic as Skybird (perhaps change his name to 'Sooty Shearwater' (zoologically speaking) ;), but maybe we should not post details of what exactly was delivered (unless intentionally misguiding) for obvious reasons. I know it can be found all over the 'net but why make it easier for Putin...

I think he knows what's on its way to Ukraine whether we mention it or not.

Markus

[Skybird]

Colonel Reisner, sharing my alarmed attitude on the battle at Ocheretyne. We can safely assume that he has access to better info than we have from public media, and for a strange reason he supports my "pessimistic" views, or I support his, depending on who posts first and how you want to look at it. :) And all in all his predictions on how the war would go militarily and politically, were correct, and I have posted similiar views on the political erosion of Western support already in the first summer of the war. I dont want to decorate myself with foreign feathers, but I think what he said in the past two years more or less supports my "pessimism". I see it as realism, btw. ;)

https://www-n--tv-de.translate.goog/politik/Reisner-Es-koennte-der-Moment-des-Dammbruchs-kommen-article24899254.html?_x_tr_sl=de&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de (https://www-n--tv-de.translate.goog/politik/Reisner-Es-koennte-der-Moment-des-Dammbruchs-kommen-article24899254.html?_x_tr_sl=de&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de)


The current aid package will post some new surprises for the Russians. But after some time, the surprise effect is eaten up, so is the ammunition and missiles, the Russians will have learned to adapt like they did before - and then what...?

Too little to win, too much to die right away. As always in this war. Thats what the new aid is. Enjoy the headlines and bright lights and loud sounds as long as they last. The show will not run forever. It has an inbuild time limit.

Not. Enough.

[Skybird]

re Dargo

I am not as pessimistic as Skybird (perhaps change his name to 'Sooty Shearwater' (zoologically speaking) ;), but maybe we should not post details of what exactly was delivered (unless intentionally misguiding) for obvious reasons. I know it can be found all over the 'net but why make it easier for Putin...
You think really that Russians are this dumb that they depend on reading Subsim's General Topic to gain their intel?:03: Trust their abilities a little bit more, I say.

[Catfish]

Of course not, but do not underestimate the info and systemic data that can be drawn off social media ;)
"Loose lips.." and all that.

[Reece]

You think really that Russians are this dumb that they depend on reading Subsim's General Topic to gain their intel?:03: Trust their abilities a little bit more, I say.
No!!! This is where they get their intel. :timeout:

[mapuc]

Colonel Reisner, sharing my alarmed attitude on the battle at Ocheretyne. We can safely assume that he has access to better info than we have from public media, and for a strange reason he supports my "pessimistic" views, or I support his, depending on who posts first and how you want to look at it. :) And all in all his predictions on how the war would go militarily and politically, were correct, and I have posted similiar views on the political erosion of Western support already in the first summer of the war. I dont want to decorate myself with foreign feathers, but I think what he said in the past two years more or less supports my "pessimism". I see it as realism, btw. ;)

https://www-n--tv-de.translate.goog/politik/Reisner-Es-koennte-der-Moment-des-Dammbruchs-kommen-article24899254.html?_x_tr_sl=de&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de (https://www-n--tv-de.translate.goog/politik/Reisner-Es-koennte-der-Moment-des-Dammbruchs-kommen-article24899254.html?_x_tr_sl=de&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de)


The current aid package will post some new surprises for the Russians. But after some time, the surprise effect is eaten up, so is the ammunition and missiles, the Russians will have learned to adapt like they did before - and then what...?

Too little to win, too much to die right away. As always in this war. Thats what the new aid is. Enjoy the headlines and bright lights and loud sounds as long as they last. The show will not run forever. It has an inbuild time limit.

Not. Enough.

I say it's a good thing to have a pessimistic access to the Ukrainian war a person have then more to be happy about if Russia lose.

I on the other hand have a positive view on the situation-Despite it's not looking good at all.

As I asked some post back-Would it be enough having the will to fight which should be the main win

Edit
A thing came into my mind:
If Ukraine win the war-We all gonna lose
If Ukraine lose the war-Ukraine is going to lose
End edit

Markus

[Skybird]

No matter the outcome, it will get extremely costly for Europe.

[mapuc]

No matter the outcome, it will get extremely costly for Europe.


Economical it will be huge lost for the European if Ukraine lose
However the price in money and life will be in billions of Euros and millions of life lost if Ukraine win

I have no doubt whatsoever that Putin will use nukes if he lose Crimea

Markus

[Dargo]

What I posted from this aid to Ukraine is made public by the US government there are no amounts given, and I do not think this is all like more countries give aid but do not tell all they give. I know that the Netherlands has given more and from their own stock, but never told what or how many. Do not think what is given now or in weeks to come will suddenly change the situation. This year we will see if Ukraine can hold the lines with if the opportunity is there can counter sure is that Russia now must rethink the plans what is Ukraine going to do. We know what Russia wants and that is mainly in the east, Ukraine can now build up on any place of the front. This is also NATO advice to defend, hurt Russia but save to build up in next year if Russia does not succeed this year Ukraine can start new operations next year.

[mapuc]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hJbKzh6wEZI&ab_channel=SkyNews

Markus

[Jimbuna]

Russia arrests former world chess champion Garry Kasparov on foreign agent and terrorist charges

Russia has arrested Garry Kasparov and charged him in connection with foreign agent and terrorist charges - much to the former chess champion's amusement.

The city court in Syktyvkar, the largest city in Russia's northwestern Komi region, announced it had arrested the grandmaster in absentia alongside former Russian parliament member Gennady Gudkov, Ivan Tyutrin co-founder of the Free Russia Forum - which has been designated as an 'undesirable organisation in the country - as well as former environmental activist Yevgenia Chirikova.

All were charged with setting up a terrorist society, according to the court's press service. As all were charged in their absence, none were physically held in custody.

"The court has selected a measure of restraint for Garry Kasparov, Gennady Gudkov, Yevgenia Chirikova and Ivan Tyutrin, charged with establishing and heading a terrorist society, funding terrorist activity and justifying it publicly," the court said according to Kremlin-backed outlet TASS. "The court granted the investigative bodies’ motions to remand Kasparov, Gudkov, Chirikova and Tyutrin in custody as a measure of restraint."

Kasparov responded to the court's bizarre arrest statement in an April 24 post shared on X, formerly Twitter. "In absentia is definitely the best way I've ever been arrested," he said. "Good company, as well. I'm sure we're all equally honoured that Putin's terror state is spending time on this that would otherwise go persecuting and murdering."

Kasparov has found himself in Russian President Vladimir Putin's firing line after he voiced his opposition to the country's leader. He has also pursued pro-democracy initiatives in Russia.

But he felt unable to continue living in Russia after he was jailed and allegedly beaten by police in 2012, according to the Guardian. He was granted Croatian citizenship in 2014 following repeated difficulties in Russia.

Putin has continued to crack down on opposition and dissenting figures within Russia with multiple people being apprehended on dubious charges. Putin's nemesis and leading opposition figure Alexei Navalny was found guilty of trumped up embezzlement charges.

The 47-year-old's body was found in mysterious circumstances in the Russian jail cell where he was being held. Many blamed Putin for Navalny's death and his widow in exile was forced to watch the funeral via livestream. Watched by balaclava-clad security officers and riot police tensions ran high as family and supporters buried Putin’s biggest political opponent.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/russia-arrests-former-world-chess-champion-garry-kasparov-on-foreign-agent-and-terrorist-charges/ar-AA1nEmB8?ocid=msedgntp&pc=U531&cvid=138dce2b853741aaf44b6c88ef995ad3&ei=16

[Jimbuna]

Russia-Ukraine war: Frontline update as of April 25

Ukrainian military forces repelled 27 enemy attacks in the Avdiivka direction, held their positions, and repelled assaults by Russian forces in the Kherson direction. Aviation destroyed 3 enemy reconnaissance drones, according to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Russian shelling

During the past day, there have been 104 clashes. In total, the enemy launched 13 missiles and 56 aviation strikes, as well as 105 artillery bombardments using rocket systems targeting our troops' positions and residential areas.

Unfortunately, due to Russian attacks, there are casualties and injuries among the civilian population. Several multi-story buildings and other objects of civil infrastructure have been destroyed or damaged.
Aircraft strikes targeted:

・Vesele, Bilyi Kolodiaz, Vovchansk, Kyrylivka in the Kharkiv region;

・Serebrianske Forestry Area, Bilohorivka in the Luhansk region;

・Ivanivske, Chasiv Yar, Bila Hora, Andriivka, Yevhenivka, Ocheretyne, Berdychi, Semenivka, Kalynove, Vovche, Oleksandropil, Arkhanhelske, Krasnohorivka, Kostiantynivka, Staromaiorske, Urozhainein the Donetsk region;

・Robotyne in the Zaporizhzhia region;

・Berislav, Olhivka, Krynykyin the Kherson region.

Over 110 settlements in the Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, and Mykolaiv regions were under artillery fire.

Frontline situation

In the Volyn and Polissia directions, the operational situation remains relatively unchanged.

In the Siversk and Slobozhanske directions, the enemy maintains military presence in border areas, conducts sabotage activities to prevent the transfer of our troops to critical areas, and increases the density of mine-explosive barriers along the state border.

In the Kupiansk direction, our troops repelled 1 attack near the settlement of Berestove in the Kharkiv region.

In the Lyman direction, the enemy attacked our positions 19 times in the areas of Serebrianske Forestry and Nevske in the Luhansk region, as well as Terniv and Torske in the Donetsk region.

In the Bakhmut direction, our troops repelled 25 attacks in the areas of the settlements of Bilohorivka in the Luhansk region, Verkhniokamianske, Vyimka, Novyi, Ivanivske, and Klishchivka in the Donetsk region.

In the Avdiivka direction, our defenders repelled 27 attacks in the areas of the settlements of Ocheretyne, Solovyove, Novokalynove, Berdychi, and Netailove in the Donetsk region.

In the Novopavlivka direction, the Defense Forces continue to hold back the enemy in the areas of the settlements of Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Novomykhailivka, and Urozhaine in the Donetsk region, where the enemy attempted to breach our troops' defenses 21 times.

In the Orikhiv direction, the enemy attacked our defenders' positions once in the area of Staromaiorske in the Donetsk region.

In the Kherson direction, the enemy is not giving up on its intention to drive our units from the bridgeheads on the left bank of the Dnipro River. During the past day, the enemy made 4 unsuccessful attacks on our troops' positions.

At the same time, our soldiers continue active operations to inflict losses on the Russian forces in personnel and equipment, wearing down the enemy along the entire line of contact.

Enemy losses

During the past day, the Defense Forces' aviation conducted strikes on 11 areas of enemy personnel concentration. Additionally, using anti-aircraft defense forces, Ukraine destroyed 1 guided aviation missile X-59 and 3 enemy reconnaissance drones.

Missile troops units inflicted damage on 1 area of enemy personnel concentration.

The total number of losses in the Russian army since the beginning of the invasion is 461,940 military personnel.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/russia-ukraine-war-frontline-update-as-of-april-25/ar-AA1nD3cg?ocid=msedgntp&pc=U531&cvid=138dce2b853741aaf44b6c88ef995ad3&ei=40

[mapuc]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uFzi4nnKBTc&ab_channel=CombatVeteranReacts

Markus

[Skybird]

From a moral point of view, I find this difficult to form a definite opinion. As of conscription in general. Its not just black or white. And if there seem to be just two sides of a thing, truth maybe is to be found in the third.

https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-halts-passport-services-for-men-living-abroad/a-68923603

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bQoSdkdDeLs

[Jimbuna]

'Treat us like pigs': Putin faces major army revolt as troops accuse Kremlin of betrayal

Vladimir Putin is facing a major army revolt, after troops accused the Kremlin of treating them "like pigs".

Veterans from Storm Z punishment battalions and the former Wagner militia accuse the Kremlin of betraying them and ignoring their sacrifices for the motherland.

The former combatants say they are being denied access to the government benefits on offer to all veterans of the Ukraine war.

Former frontline soldiers are normally issued with combat veteran certificates, which allow them to receive generous government social benefits and subsidies.

These include a 50 percent discount on housing and utility bills, as well as a monthly payment of 195,000 (1,689) roubles a month.

In Russia this is a lot of money, and is roughly equal to the wage of a medium to high level manager working in a private business.
Additionally, returning servicemen are guaranteed a return to their original jobs, while their children receive preferential treatment when enrolling in universities.

Yet soldiers from Storm Z units and the Wagner militia say local authorities are not issuing them with the certificates.

A group of former Storm Z fighters have recorded a video message to the Russian President, demanding that he intervenes on their behalf.

In the recording, one of the group says: "Not a single representative of the Wagner PMC in the Tyumen region was issued a combat veteran certificate.

"State awards do not provide the required financial reward. We, Storm Z fighters, are told that we are not worthy of receiving lump sum payments for serious injuries."

Storm Z soldiers were recruited from Russian penal colonies. The convicts were promised that their convictions would be squashed on the successful completion of a tour of duty.

The penal squads, each about 100-150 strong, were embedded within regular army units and typically were sent to the most exposed parts of the front, where they often sustained heavy losses.

Other Storm Z fighters have voiced their anger at the way they have been treated since their return from Ukraine.

One told the Russian independent media channel Astra that they ranked lower than animals as far as the authorities were concerned.

"We returned home and they treated us like pigs," said one veteran. "Although it's probably better with pigs.

"At least they are fed and given a place. And we, along the way, have become worse than pigs for them."
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/treat-us-like-pigs-putin-faces-major-army-revolt-as-troops-accuse-kremlin-of-betrayal/ar-AA1nFyNz?ocid=msedgntp&pc=U531&cvid=9da94d7a35a74592b0a7ceb6fa7f10ae&ei=17

[Dargo]

'Treat us like pigs': Putin faces major army revolt as troops accuse Kremlin of betrayalNo surprise Storm Z soldiers have a lifespan of 1 month Wagner had a lifespan of average 3 months. Storm Z soldiers get no training, none, zero and no protection or support from the Russian army, they starve at the front eating food supplies from their fallen comrades.

[Dargo]

Ukraine pulls US-provided Abrams tanks from the front lines over Russian drone threatsUkraine has sidelined U.S.-provided Abrams M1A1 battle tanks for now in its fight against Russia, in part because Russian drone warfare has made it too difficult for them to operate without detection or coming under attack, two U.S. military officials told The Associated Press. The U.S. agreed to send 31 Abrams to Ukraine in January 2023 after an aggressive monthslong campaign by Kyiv arguing that the tanks, which cost about $10 million apiece, were vital to its ability to breach Russian lines. But the battlefield has changed substantially since then, notably by the ubiquitous use of Russian surveillance drones and hunter-killer drones. Those weapons have made it more difficult for Ukraine to protect the tanks when they are quickly detected and hunted by Russian drones or rounds. Five of the 31 tanks have already been lost to Russian attacks. The proliferation of drones on the Ukrainian battlefield means “there isn’t open ground that you can just drive across without fear of detection,” a senior defense official told reporters Thursday. ... https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-russia-war-abrams-tanks-19d71475d427875653a2130063a8fb7a

[Jimbuna]

US set to provide six billion dollars in long-term military aid for Ukraine

The US is expected to announce that it will provide around six billion dollars in long-term military aid to Ukraine, officials have said, adding that it will include much sought after munitions for Patriot air defence systems.

The officials said the aid package will be funded through the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, which pays for longer-term contracts with the defence industry and means that it could take many months or years for the weapons to arrive.

The officials spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss details not yet made public.

The new funding — the largest tranche of USAI aid sent to date – will include a wide array of munitions for air defence, such as the National Advanced Surface to Air Missile System (NASAM) and the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS), as well as the Patriot munitions, Switchblade and Puma drones, counter drone systems and artillery.

The announcement is expected to come on Friday as defence secretary Lloyd Austin convenes a virtual meeting of defence officials from Europe and around the world to discuss international aid for Ukraine.

The gathering — created by Mr Austin and known as the Ukraine Defence Contact Group — has been meeting monthly for the past two years, and is the primary forum for weapons contributions to Kyiv for the war.

The meeting is expected to focus largely on air defence systems, Mr Austin said.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that Kyiv needs Patriot missiles to create an air shield against further Russian missile attacks.

He discussed the need for Patriots on Friday at the Pentagon-led meeting.

His address marked the second anniversary of the group, which has “moved heaven and earth” since April 2022 to source millions of rounds of ammunition, rocket systems, armoured vehicles and even jets to help Ukraine rebuff Russia’s invasion, Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin said at the meeting.

Mr Zelensky said at least seven Patriot systems are needed to protect Ukrainian cities.

“We urgently need Patriot systems and missiles for them,” Zelenskyy said. “This is what can and should save lives right now.”

It follows the White House decision earlier this week to approve the delivery of one billion dollars in weapons and equipment to Ukraine.

Those weapons include a variety of ammunition, including air defence munitions and large amounts of artillery rounds that are much in demand by Ukrainian forces, as well as armoured vehicles and other weapons.

That aid, however, will get to Ukraine quickly because it is being pulled off Pentagon shelves, including in warehouses in Europe.

The large back-to-back packages are the result of the new infusion of about 61 billion dollars in funding for Ukraine that was passed by Congress and signed into law by President Joe Biden on Wednesday.

They provide weapons Kyiv desperately needs to stall gains being made by Russian forces in the war.

Bitterly divided members of Congress deadlocked over the funding for months, forcing house speaker Mike Johnson to cobble together a bipartisan coalition to pass the bill.

The 95 billion dollar foreign aid package, which also included billions for Israel and Taiwan, passed the House on Saturday, and the Senate approved it on Tuesday.

Senior US officials have described dire battlefield conditions in Ukraine, as troops run low on munitions and Russian forces make gains.

Since Russia’s February 2022 invasion, the US has sent more than 44 billion dollars worth of weapons, maintenance, training and spare parts to Ukraine.

Among the weapons provided to Ukraine were Abrams M1A1 battle tanks.

But Ukraine has now side-lined them in part because Russian drone warfare has made it too difficult for them to operate without detection or coming under attack, two US military officials told The Associated Press.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/us-set-to-provide-six-billion-dollars-in-long-term-military-aid-for-ukraine/ar-AA1nHCay?ocid=msedgntp&pc=U531&cvid=5ce2a497f5ef4e9ee67db04d5076055e&ei=10

[Dargo]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y12WsjuNnbk

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AhhjzS857Jg

[Dargo]

https://i.postimg.cc/yd5fVSyp/Total-FPV-on-Infantry-Month-2024-03-31.png
https://i.postimg.cc/2jZGQywm/Total-FPV-on-Vehicles-Month-2024-03-31.png

Russia outdrone Ukraine, nah! Also, Russia stock is declining APC are in shortage Russia now use T-55 with sheds on top to transport troops and have no production capability to produce them in large numbers an attack would normally contain more than 40 rolling material now they attack with 5.

The fall of Avdiivka on the 17th of February 2024 is one of the more sobering junctures of the Ukrainian-Russian war for both the Ukrainian side and its allies. This defeat did not arrive without warning but was instead expected by both Western observers and the Ukrainian high command which, unlike during the battle for Bakhmut, opted to tactically withdraw its forces to a better position. This article intends not to investigate the circumstances which led to the fall of Avdiivka but will assess some characteristics germane to understanding the situation the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) faced there, before moving onto the role of FPV drones west of Avdiivka... https://tochnyi.info/2024/04/fpv-drones-avdiivkas-western-front-31-04-2024/

[mapuc]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZLM-L2MqC7I&ab_channel=CombatVeteranReacts

Markus

[Dargo]

Britain estimates that 450,000 Russian military personnel have been killed or wounded and over 10,000 Russian armoured vehicles have been destroyed in Ukraine. Leo Docherty Minister of State, Minister for the Armed Forces:We estimate that approximately 450,000 Russian military personnel have been killed or wounded, and tens of thousands more have already deserted since the start of the conflict. The number of personnel killed serving in Russian private military companies (PMCs) is not clear. We also estimate that over 10,000 Russian armoured vehicles, including nearly 3,000 main battle tanks, 109 fixed wing aircraft, 136 helicopters, 346 unmanned aerial vehicles, 23 naval vessels of all classes, and over 1,500 artillery systems of all types have been destroyed, abandoned, or captured by Ukraine since the start of the conflict.https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/britain-estimates-450000-russian-troops-killed-or-wounded/

Ukrainian forces dismiss AP report on withdrawal of Abrams tanks due to drone threatsThe tanks “are performing excellently on the battlefield and we certainly have no intention of hiding from the enemy what usually makes them hide,” Ukrainian forces wrote. In a recent statement, the 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces has labeled as false an Associated Press report suggesting that Ukraine had withdrawn its American-supplied Abrams tanks from the frontline due to threats from Russian drones. The brigade, through a post marked with “Fake,” refuted claims that these tanks had been repositioned away from the battlefields. The post included a screenshot of the AP news item with a clarification that contradicts the reported information. The tanks “are performing excellently on the battlefield and we certainly have no intention of hiding from the enemy what usually makes them hide. Especially, we wouldn’t leave our infantry without such powerful fire support,” the brigade stated in its communication. The Ukrainian military did not disclose specific operational details but urged the public and media to rely only on verified information and to seek official comments from their press service before publishing such materials. ... https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/04/27/ukrainian-forces-dismiss-ap-report-on-withdrawal-of-abrams-tanks-due-to-drone-threats/

Ukraine ranks 8th globally in terms of defence spending. In 2023, Ukraine’s defence spending increased by 51% compared to 2022
https://i.postimg.cc/6Qbf3bVV/ukrdefencespending.jpg

[mapuc]

Wasn't it some of you who wrote that it was not in NATO's interest to beat Russia, but weaken them. This is not the case according to this guy in the video

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eK-sI6YYhTE&ab_channel=UkraineMatters

Markus

[Jimbuna]

Russian rebels vow to burn Putin in the 'flames of revolution' as panic grips Kremlin

Russia's Freedom Legion has told the Express.co.uk that they will drag Putin from the Kremlin on the "tips of their bayonets" and burn him in the "flames of revolution".

The Legion is one of three armed militias made up of Russian volunteers fighting in Ukraine against Putin's army.

Along with fellow rebels in the Russia Volunteer Corp (RVC) and Siberian Battalion, they have staged a number of daring raids in the Kursk and Belgorod border regions of Russia.

The most recent was carried out on March 12, and was timed to coincide with the Russian Presidential elections three days later.

Despite Putin having seemingly tightened his grip on power, the rebels insist that his regime is doomed and will be violently overthrown sooner rather than later.
The Legion sees itself as being the "spark" to ignite the revolution that will rid Russia of its murderous tyrant.

Alexey Baranovksy, a drone operator with the Legion, told the Express: "Putin left Russian citizens no choice but to carry him out of the Kremlin on the tip of a bayonet. Well, let's move along this path.

"How to initiate a revolution? The main thing is to start. There are a lot of dissatisfied people in Russia - the regime is supported, for the most part, by the batons of the police and the repression of the special services.

"Only armed rebels - like us - can resist them. We are the spark from which the flame of rebellion will ignite.

"Consider that our regular visits to the border areas of Russia are attempts to fan the flames. And one day this fire will flare up at full power and turn into a forest fire in which Putin will burn."

The 42-year-old volunteer said the rebel raids were sowing panic in the Kremlin, as evidenced by Putin's unexpected public reaction to the March attacks.

The Kremlin boss commented on the raids twice, having previously ignored the rebels' activities, while there was also a "big commotion" in the state media.

This demonstrated clearly that the rebels had struck a vulnerable spot of Putin's regime, according to the Legion fighter. Alexey, whose call sign is "Lutik", confirmed the March raids had inflicted heavy losses on Putin's army.

"Dozens of armoured vehicles were destroyed or disabled, hundreds of Putin's soldiers were killed or wounded," he said. "Unfortunately, we also have losses, but this is war."

He added: "This was the largest raid of the Russian liberation forces since the beginning of the great war in 2022, all three units of Russian volunteers took part in it.

"There will be more in the future and we will be able to solve even more complex military-political problems."

Many Russian political analysts have questioned whether the anti-Putin opposition can really topple the blood thirsty tyrant given their own internal disagreements and lack of unity.

Given the fact that Putin seemingly has consolidated his political power and would appear to be edging towards a military victory in Ukraine, some experts have suggested that the Russian opposition is fast becoming irrelevant.

Alexey however, dismissed the scepticism of critics, pointing out that Legion numbers are experiencing "explosive" growth and that there was a growing synergy among the different factions of the anti-Putin movement.

"There are at least two clusters that make up the Russian opposition," he explained. "There's the classic old opposition, which sits in Europe and holds various conferences and forums of varying degrees of usefulness. This is, for the most part, not opposition, but emigration, although anti-Putin-minded. And there is a new opposition - us. This is the armed resistance.

"If the old opposition supports us more effectively than now (not only politically, but also infra-structurally and with resources), then the synergy of our cooperation will become a big problem for the Kremlin regime.

"And this process is already happening - for example volunteers are actively supported by Gary Kasparov's Free Russia Forum and Ilya Ponomarev's Congress of People's Deputies."

He added the armed rebels were actively trying to create closer ties with Alexey Navalny's widow Yulia and the former Yukos oil tycoon Mikhail Khodorkovsky.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/russian-rebels-vow-to-burn-putin-in-the-flames-of-revolution-as-panic-grips-kremlin/ar-AA1nKALa?ocid=msedgntp&pc=U531&cvid=e0385f53fc514955f56ecc1c8e00d4d6&ei=13

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z3aFIdf0fiI

[Dargo]

Wasn't it some of you who wrote that it was not in NATO's interest to beat Russia, but weaken them. This is not the case according to this guy in the video

MarkusI never believed this was NATO policy neither is "time is on Russia side" when you lose in two years 450,000 Russian military personnel killed or wounded and over 10,000 Russian armoured vehicles destroyed Ukraine now gets another two years to kill another 450,000 Russian military personnel to kill or wound and over 10,000 Russian armoured vehicles to destroy. With not even started a war production yet with all that Ukraine shortage, Ukraine has given Russia only about 200 square Km with making Russia pay the hard way. How longer this goes on, how more Russia gets in trouble also if Ukraine can hold the lines this year this will be Russian's last big offensive for long time after Bakhmut it took them more than a year to recover this time it will take at least double of time and in this time anything can happen within and with Russia. Russia is on his own and has no trillions backer to support it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LVWnS7fRTWQ

[mapuc]

I never believed this was NATO policy neither is "time is on Russia side" when you lose in two years 450,000 Russian military personnel killed or wounded and over 10,000 Russian armoured vehicles destroyed Ukraine now gets another two years to kill another 450,000 Russian military personnel to kill or wound and over 10,000 Russian armoured vehicles to destroy. With not even started a war production yet with all that Ukraine shortage, Ukraine has given Russia only about 200 square Km with making Russia pay the hard way. How longer this goes on, how more Russia gets in trouble also if Ukraine can hold the lines this year this will be Russian's last big offensive for long time after Bakhmut it took them more than a year to recover this time it will take at least double of time and in this time anything can happen within and with Russia. Russia is on his own and has no trillions backer to support it.

It is going to be interesting to see how well Ukraine going to make use of this new huge war package.

It does not come as a surprise that Russia is attacking on a wider area on the frontline-They are trying to gain as much they can before Ukraine receive this package.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rvAV4UmpHbk&ab_channel=Military%26History

Markus

[Dargo]

It is going to be interesting to see how well Ukraine going to make use of this new huge war package.

It does not come as a surprise that Russia is attacking on a wider area on the frontline-They are trying to gain as much they can before Ukraine receive this package.


MarkusThat "wider" area is not that wide yes they gain but at high very high loses and mostly gain small villages creating sailiants that can be flanked when the ammo arrives in a couple of days, weeks. They do not gain significant strategic areas and will run out of steam the moment Ukraine has brought the gear to the front, then they are stuck in weak defendable areas to become fertilizer.

[mapuc]

That "wider" area is not that wide yes they gain but at high very high loses and mostly gain small villages creating sailiants that can be flanked when the ammo arrives in a couple of days, weeks. They do not gain significant strategic areas and will run out of steam the moment Ukraine has brought the gear to the front, then they are stuck in weak defendable areas to become fertilizer.

In other words Russia is Doomed Hmm do Putin have teeth or is he a toothless tiger ? This has to be seen when he is really pressed up in the corner.

A little majority of my friends on FB are convinced Russia will win this war and they are from both side of the political center. Their strongest evidence is the different in manpower and quantity of material.

Markus

[Dargo]

In other words Russia is Doomed Hmm do Putin have teeth or is he a toothless tiger ? This has to be seen when he is really pressed up in the corner.

A little majority of my friends on FB are convinced Russia will win this war and they are from both side of the political center. Their strongest evidence is the different in manpower and quantity of material.

MarkusFor months Russia losses more than they can bring to the front their stock is not infinity also not all can be used any more satellite images show vastly depleted storage what is left is harder to be made ready for the front and an amount will end up in the scrapyard. Russia wave soldiers last an average of 1 month send in without equipment, food, support and training like you can not bomb a country to surrender you can not meatwave it to surrender Ukraine has endured this for two years and can endure this for another two years certainly with the new aid.

[mapuc]

For months Russia losses more than they can bring to the front their stock is not infinity also not all can be used any more satellite images show vastly depleted storage what is left is harder to be made ready for the front and an amount will end up in the scrapyard. Russia wave soldiers last an average of 1 month send in without equipment, food, support and training like you can not bomb a country to surrender you can not meatwave it to surrender Ukraine has endured this for two years and can endure this for another two years certainly with the new aid.

It has been said that with this huge 61 bn(*) package Ukraine can fight an intensive war against Russia for 18-20 month.

* The Senate approved a package around 61 bn

Which must mean that they the Ukrainian will receive 10 package of 6 bn each.

Markus

[Dargo]

It has been said that with this huge 61 bn(*) package Ukraine can fight an intensive war against Russia for 18-20 month.

* The Senate approved a package around 61 bn

Which must mean that they the Ukrainian will receive 10 package of 6 bn each.

MarkusWith the rest of the west giving aid, Ukraine can fight longer than 18–20 months.

[mapuc]

With the rest of the west giving aid, Ukraine can fight longer than 18–20 months.

None of us common people know what Putin will do, when he understand he has lost the war ?

If he lose, he still have the possibility to order general mobilization as a last thing.

Markus

[mapuc]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5gUQbdjGIT4&ab_channel=CombatVeteranReacts

Markus

[Dargo]

None of us common people know what Putin will do, when he understand he has lost the war ?

If he lose, he still have the possibility to order general mobilization as a last thing.

MarkusSo another 450,000 Russian military personnel and over 10,000 Russian armoured vehicles will bring victory this time?

The mood now is that the Russians can go on like this forever, but they can't. They are really reaching their limits. Together we have economies 250 times the size of the Ukrainian economy, and we are 25 times the size of the Russian economy. This war will go on for a while, start by increasing our defence, spending a little bit for artillery shells. Ukraine is a very traditional war. It depends on the artillery whether or not people die at the front. Many artillery shells are made in Europe, but because of existing orders they are sent to other continents! In a wartime like now, I think there should be a little less capitalism and a little more state planning about strategic supplies like artillery.

This also applies to the US, the US has many Patriot anti-aircraft batteries stored in Western depots, but they are not used there. Germany could provide Taurus missiles with which to hit Russian logistics behind the lines. A Ukrainian long-range strike capability is now the only way to prevent a summer offensive. In the US especially, but also in general, too much is spent on incredibly complicated and expensive defence platforms, whereas now in Ukraine sometimes just ammunition, bulletproof vests and other simple items are needed.

[Skybird]

If only we also had 250 times their determination.

Somebody said early in the war the Russians probably were the best soldiers in the world. Because of their malicous brutality, unscrupulousness, lack of compassion, total disrespect for humanistic values, and total servility. Pair this with the simpel fact that the overwhelming majority of Russian civilians believe the Putinian narration.

I recall they reported a phone call from early ion the war, at the time of the massacre at Butcha. A Russian soldier phoned with his wife and told her they demand him and other soldiers to massrape captured females. And the wife only said "Okay, but use a condom".

That the sort of mentality we deal with. Dulled, brutal, submissive, devoted to "fate". Good luck with wanting to defeat it by being civilised and smart.

Again, Putin is admired and suppported by the very huge majority of Russians.

Since two years I keep heraign the nRusians cant do this, the Russians cant sustain that. And here we are today. And every month passing by the Ukraine falls more apart and goes into ruins.


Its now 170 million Russians against around 33 million remaining Ukrainians. And a defence industry blossoming in Russia while that in Ukraine is on the brink of going extinct. And Russia being autark in the supply of civilian services and food, while Ukraine has lost any sovereignty and now is hopelessly dependent on the good will from outside.



Next winter when power and heating is needed and there is none left anymore - that is when it will break Ukraine's neck at the latest. Over 80% of their power production already now is down, mpost of that: destroyed beyond repoair. Possible repairs will be longterm efforts, interferred with by Russia. The Russians will make a pig's breakfast of the rest, too.



If only we would be 250 times more determined, yes. Instead, our political leadership is corrupted and intimidated and selfish and rotten from the skin's surface to the core of every bone.

[mapuc]

In at least three places along the front line in eastern Ukraine, Ukrainian soldiers have had to retreat.

This is due to a 'deteriorating' military situation.

This is what Ukraine's chief of defense, Oleksandr Syrskyj, said in an update on social media on Sunday.

Russian forces have been advancing eastward for some time.

https://ekstrabladet-dk.translate.goog/nyheder/forvaerret-situation-ukrainske-soldater-falder-tilbage/10214000?_x_tr_sl=da&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=da&_x_tr_pto=wapp

Markus

[Jimbuna]

Russia's losses in Ukraine as of April 28: Over 1000 troops and 43 artillery systems

Russia's losses in the war in Ukraine as of Sunday morning, April 28, amount to 1096 troops, bringing the total number of Russian army losses since the beginning of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine to 466,150. In addition, the Ukrainian Armed Forces destroyed 11 tanks, 20 armoured combat vehicles and 43 enemy artillery systems, according to the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

The total combat Russian losses from 24.02.22 to 28.04.24 are estimated to be:

・personnel - about 466,150 (+1096) Russian troops were killed;

・tanks - 7279 (+11) units;

・armored combat vehicles - 13,991 (+20) units;

・artillery systems - 11,948 (+43) units;

・MLRS - 1,050 (+1) units;

・air defense systems - 7,756 (+1) units;

・airplanes - 348 units;
・helicopters - 325 units;

・UAVs of operational and tactical level - 9,507 (+22) units;

・cruise missiles - 2,124 units;

・ships/boats - 26 units;

・submarines - 1 unit;

・motor vehicles and tankers - 16,065 (+46) units;

・special equipment - 1,971 (+3) units.

Situation at frontline

In Ukraine, there were 88 combat clashes on the front line over the past day. The enemy continues active assaults in the Donetsk region.

According to the Institute for the Study of War, Russian occupiers are advancing north of Avdiivka and west of Donetsk. Additionally, aggressors are pressing on most fronts. However, Ukrainian defenders repel enemy attacks and assaults.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/russia-s-losses-in-ukraine-as-of-april-28-over-1000-troops-and-43-artillery-systems/ar-AA1nNK4V?ocid=msedgntp&pc=U531&cvid=daae7ebd1945455eb478d89c0fb4b436&ei=10

[mapuc]

Do you believe this man ?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K5ns5JhGlfQ&ab_channel=CyrusJanssen

Markus

[Skybird]

He has many valid points, especially about the past events that led Russia to attack.



There were red lines ignored by the West, by mere arrogance and the beloeive one could afford to just ignore Russian protest. And it was stupoid an idea to invite Georgia and Ukraine into NATO or give them that perspective just becasue one thought that Ruzssia wouldn't do anything about it and becasue one claimed to be on the superior idealistic mission.


This is what happens when absolute moralism replaces sound reason and Realpolitik .


The reason why I was caught on the wrong foot 26 months ago, was not the war itself, but the timing and superficial excuse they went to war over. I expected them to construct a more solid "alibi".Reasons why they woudl launch a big war I had given myself beforek, too. So, the individual circumstances caught me off guard, not the fact itself that they went to war.

Balkans, anyone? :03: :ping: Serbia?Could become a big headline sooner than most people think, I think.



The arch sin of the Wets is since decades that it terirbyl fails in seeign things throuzgh the eyes of its enemies. It always assume the others see the same thing through the Wetsenr glasses and thus come to the same ocnclsuions like the West. I find this ridiculous since the end of my school days already. First know your enemy better to then understand how he really thinks. But self-importance and arrogance blind us in the West time and time again.

[mapuc]

As I said to my friend on FB(it was he who posted the video on his wall)I hope he is wrong about the outcome of the war, that Ukraine will, if not winning the war, drag Russia to the negotiation table due to massive human and material cost.

Markus

[Skybird]

The humanitarian cost is of no concern for the fascists in the Kremlin. So the question is with what Ukraine could dream to set the conditions in negotiations. Russia has 5-6 times the population of Ukraine now, better economy, and nuclear weapons.

Negotiating...?

The winner does what he wants. The looser suffers what he must.

[Dargo]

NATO hopeful about impact of aid to Ukraine despite steady loss of groundUkrainian President Zelensky was especially relieved when the United States agreed after months to a $61 billion aid package for his country. At the same time, the situation on the front is deteriorating by the day. “Supplies are starting to come in, but the pace must be stepped up,” Zelenskyy said today. He received in Kyiv NATO chief Stoltenberg. The Norwegian acknowledged that the alliance has not delivered on its military promises, such as providing sufficient ammunition, in recent times. But that is now going to change, according to the secretary-general. “This is going to make a difference,” Stoltenberg referred to the U.S. aid package. “Just as the lack of support has also made a difference,” by which he was referring to the Russian advance in recent months.

The head of Ukraine's security service Kyrylo Budanov previously predicted that May and June are going to be a difficult period for Ukraine. After all, the Russian army has more weapons and manpower that are being fully deployed at this time, resulting in ground gains. Although fighting is going on all along the front, the fiercest fighting is focused mainly around Avdiivka and Khasiv Yar. “And that last place in particular is of strategic importance,” says former Army Commander in Chief Mart de Kruif. “If the Russians manage to capture that place, they can choose whether to push on to the west or deflect north toward Kharkiv. From Avdiivka you can only head west.”

The American think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) also sees the Ukrainian army retreating and Russia gaining ground in the regions around Avdiivka and Khasiv Yar. Still, it is thought that it will remain only relatively small pinpricks. “Ukrainian defences will not be overwhelmed, and the Russians will not overrun Ukraine.” Meanwhile, the ISW sees Ukraine sending additional troops toward Kharkiv to defend the city should the Russians decide to move toward Ukraine's second-largest city. Although, it is believed that the Russian army will not be able to completely capture the city. Around both Avdiivka and Chasiv Yar, the Russians are fighting with large divisions of up to ten thousand men and with great force. And so it makes sense to De Kruif that Ukraine is giving up ground. “The Ukrainians are not going to fight themselves to death here. They are not putting their people where they cannot win and are saving their forces for the big Russian offensive. Besides, the really big cities are still in Ukrainian hands, and they are behind a strong defence line. So Russia is gaining ground, but it is not a break-in, breakthrough or break-out,” De Kruif said.

The $61 billion in U.S. aid should give Ukraine more clout at the front. De Kruif thinks that could begin to happen in the near future. “The support is certainly not coming too late. The first shells have already arrived, and that will start to lead to a slower Russian advance. In addition, with those shells, they can inflict greater losses on the Russians.” “Actually, we are now in a phase where we are waiting for Western support to become effective, but where Ukraine is still forcibly giving up ground.” Although the momentum is now in the hands of the Russians, the predicted major offensive is, for now, delayed. Think tank ISW expects the offensive in late May, early June. Former commander De Kruif does not dare put his hand in the fire for it. “Such a major offensive you spend weeks and months planning. It's not a game where you push a button and it happens. It could be in a few weeks, or it could be in the summer. Such an offensive also depends on the weather.” In its daily report, the ISW writes that a well-supplied Ukrainian army should be able to stop this offensive. “But before all the support reaches the front, we could be weeks or months away,” de Kruif said. https://nos.nl/collectie/13965/artikel/2518620-navo-hoopvol-over-effect-hulp-aan-oekraine-ondanks-gestaag-terreinverlies

[mapuc]

Sad to say, I think Skybird is right about his statement on how Russian sees their soldiers "The humanitarian cost is of no concern for the fascists in the Kremlin"

It wouldn't matter if Russia loses additional 500.000 men.

Markus

[Dargo]

Over 18,000 Russian troops of Southern Military District have desertedSoldiers of Russia's Southern Military District, whose units are deployed in Ukraine, are deserting their posts in increasing numbers, Ukraine's military intelligence agency (HUR) said on April 29. According to many observers, low morale has been a recurring problem for the Russian Armed Forces fighting in Ukraine. Over 18,000 soldiers of the Southern Military District have allegedly deserted, with around 12,000 of them belonging to the 8th Combined Arms Army – a unit often deployed in hostilities in eastern Ukraine. Of this number, around 10,000 are mobilized conscripts and 2,000 contract soldiers, the military intelligence agency said.

The U.K. Defence Ministry said earlier in April that Russian troops in Ukraine are mainly staffed with contract soldiers and reservists mobilized in late 2022, but conscripts are often pressured to sign contracts. In the Russian 58th Combined Arms Army, the desertion rate is at around 2,500 troops, according to the agency's statement. https://kyivindependent.com/military-intelligence-over-18-000-russian-troops-of-southern-military-district-have-deserted/

[mapuc]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BZ0sVxEW7w0&ab_channel=CombatVeteranReacts

Markus

[Jimbuna]

Zelensky: Russia taking advantage of slow arms delivery

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky says Russia is taking advantage of the slow delivery of Western weapons to go on the offensive.

His comments come after the US agreed a $61bn (£49bn) package of military aid for Ukraine.

Mr Zelensky said some of the aid had started to arrive, but added that it needed to be delivered faster.

He was speaking alongside Nato chief Jens Stoltenberg, who said "it's not too late for Ukraine to prevail".

The comments come after authorities in the Black Sea port of Odesa said a Russian missile attack had killed two people and injured eight.

Odesa's regional governor Oleh Kiper said a 12-year-old boy was among the injured, and civilian houses and infrastructure had been damaged.

Earlier on Monday, Russia said it had taken a second village in two days in the course of its offensive in eastern Ukraine.

At a joint press conference in Kyiv, President Zelensky said: "The Russian army is now trying to take advantage of a situation when we are waiting for supplies from our partners, especially from the United States of America.

"And that is exactly why the speed of deliveries means stabilising the front."

He specifically singled out Ukraine's need for artillery shells and air defence systems.

"Our partners have all of these things and they should be working now here in Ukraine destroying the Russian terrorist ambitions.

"Russia's army is preparing for further offensive actions," said Mr Zelensky.

Mr Stoltenberg agreed that Kyiv needed weapons, saying that "Ukraine has been outgunned for months, forced to ration its ammunition".

The Nato chief said the six-month delay in US military aid had resulted in "serious consequences on the battlefield".

But Mr Stoltenberg added that he was optimistic that when the arms were delivered it would help turn the tide.

"Our allies are looking into what more they can do and I expect new announcements soon. So we are working hard to meet Ukraine's urgent needs," said the Nato chief.

Russia said it had captured the village of Semenivka, which lies north of Avdiivka which Moscow took in February. On Sunday, Russia said the nearby village of Novobakhmutivka had fallen to its forces.

Ukraine's commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrskyi has said the situation on the frontline has worsened in the face of multiple Russian attacks, and that Ukrainian forces had withdrawn from positions in the eastern Donetsk region.

Earlier this month, the US finally approved billions of dollars in new military aid for Ukraine to help combat Russia's invasion, putting an end to six months of congressional deadlock and raising Kyiv's hopes that its dwindling supplies would be restocked.

Ukrainian forces have suffered from a shortage of ammunition and air defence systems in recent months. Officials have blamed delays in military aid from the US and other Western allies for the loss of lives and territory.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68923225

[mapuc]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o9ktZqZVjuA&ab_channel=UkraineMatters

Markus

[Dargo]

Sad to say, I think Skybird is right about his statement on how Russian sees their soldiers "The humanitarian cost is of no concern for the fascists in the Kremlin"

It wouldn't matter if Russia loses additional 500.000 men.

MarkusWith 500,000 men Russia is against an army of one million people and this will grow with the new mobilization law. That Putin and his gang do not care that 500,000 men become fertilizer does not mean Russia reach any strategic goal they set for themselves. Russia with his bigger air force, ground force, navy and large equipment has after 795 days not reached one strategic goal 500,000 men will not change that 90% will die for a couple of meters.

Mobilize is a huge logistical project with some crucial bottlenecks. It's not just rigging up an enlistment centre all those people need uniforms, adequate armour, and they need training to get their basic skills back on track. Because if those soldiers can't shoot properly and aren't physically fit, what good are they on the front lines? On top of that, you need people to conduct those trainings. But all the soldiers are already at the front, so there are few executive officers available. Then those who conduct the training will probably also be recently called up reservists themselves. You really need two months for that basic training, even if reservists are experienced. After that, the soldiers have to go to the front, where functional training follows. This involves teaching the soldiers how to handle the equipment at hand, for example, how to drive the specific tanks that are being deployed. Here, the same problem applies ^ are those training tanks available at all, or are they all driving around in combat areas? Housing must also be rigged at the front for the fresh troops, and a large amount of food must be hauled in. Before all these things are arranged, you are four months away. This how we train our army Russian army get no training no care no support they are only prepared to become fertilizer, do not expect those troops are effective!

The quality of the Ukrainian army is simply higher, and the Russians are now trying to compensate for that with superior quantity. In the past think of World War II against Nazi Germany this tactic worked for the Russians, but I don't think it will work again now. Back then the Russians were defending their own territory, but now they are actually invading another country whose people, moreover, they see as brotherly people. Consequently, Russian morale is very weak. Mentally, the Ukrainians are superior in every way, the quality of their leadership is better, but above all, the motivation of the soldiers to protect their country is enormous. That difference is not rectified with thousands of poorly trained and only half motivated reservists.

[mapuc]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LrG9G23-0O8&ab_channel=Military%26History

Markus

[Dargo]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qc436PwqeqM

[mapuc]

Whether we, who support Ukraine, like it or not. The Russians have the momentum these days.

I don't know what the Ukrainian have to do to break this momentum.

Markus

[Dargo]

Whether we, who support Ukraine, like it or not. The Russians have the momentum these days.

I don't know what the Ukrainian have to do to break this momentum.

MarkusIf you zoom out, that momentum is small they advance not that much the advance is about 1% as Ukraine advanced (that was a breakthrough Ukraine retook over 500 settlements and 12,000 square kilometres of territory in the Kharkiv region in 2022) Russia is not winning really why everybody think Russia has already won is beyond me. This is not a breakthrough!

[Skybird]

Its a war of attrition, Russia forced it splay onto Ukraine, long tiem ago already, this way eroding reserves needed for forming new brigades, and take the remaining Western tanks and IFVs out of play. Quality of troops counts less, quantity of ressources counters decisively.



Since the fall of Avdiivka they have in parts advanced 20 km. They are threatening to gain an operational breakthrough.



Recent attacks of Ukraine of Crimea were meant to make headlines. Tactically they mean almost nothing if Ukraine has no troops in Crimea to push and gain relevant territory in the wake of the ATCAMS - of which it now has accordingly less already. Its not known how many the US provided, but the reserves are definitely limited for sure.



The ATACMS were needed one year ago. As always: too late, too few.



Russia has another 60km beforte it to reahc the district borders of Donbass and Luhansk and bring there territories under its control. While Putin seeks this triumpf for symbolicn reasons ove rthe May 9th festivities, do not get mislead. Its not vital for Russia to gain any further terrritory to win. It could in principle opt for just sitting where it now is and from this status quo continue to bomb Ukraione into poieces, day for day, night for night, until nothing essential is left anymore. That Putin does not do this but instead wastes troops for pushing forward shows no desperation but that he is extremely confident - enough so to think he can afford it.



Ukraine looses more and more bridges, power reserves and production capacity every day and night, and slowly reduces Ukraine's very limited reserves slowly, but constantly. Who is boiling a frog now...?

The only way to avoid the deadly outcome of this is to rush in material and reseves in quantities currently not imaginable and Ukraine mobilizing and readying a mass of new troops, so to enable Ukraine to break out of the Russian anaconda's embrace and counter attack decisively and cut the head off the body, so to speak. But I see no potential for building and arming forces needed for such an Ukrainian offensive. l not this years, and not next year. With what would they do that...?


I think Ukraine can only hope to survive this struggle through decisive mistakes made by the Russians. But these are not the Russians of two years ago anymore. They learned an awesome lot and now are superior.

[Skybird]

https://www.fr.de/wirtschaft/russlands-putin-wirtschaft-kann-sich-ein-ende-des-ukraine-kriegs-nicht-leisten-93042096.html

Economist is certain: Russia's economy cannot afford an end to the war in Ukraine [thats no typo or mistranslation, Skybird]

Russia's economy is benefiting from the war in Ukraine - and is dependent on it at the same time. Putin cannot afford an end - according to one economist.

Moscow - Russia's economy is growing - despite the war in Ukraine and sanctions. According to the Kremlin, gross domestic product rose by 5.5 percent in the third quarter of 2023 compared to the previous year. According to a forecast by the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, growth will still amount to 2.8 percent in 2024. According to experts, the Russian economy is not growing despite the war, but because of the war, on which the economy is already dependent. Economist Renaud Foucart is therefore convinced: “It is a war that Russia cannot afford to lose.”

“The war in Ukraine is the most important driver of Russian economic growth,” the economist from Lancaster University stated in an article for The Conversation. Business Insider first reported on this. Foucart points to the transformation that the Russian economy has undergone as a result of the war. The state itself spends 40 percent of its budget on the war.

According to the economist, soldiers' pay, expenditure on ammunition, tanks, aircraft and compensation for wounded or fallen soldiers also contribute to Russia's gross domestic product. Other reasons for the country's resilience include the regulation of foreign companies, which makes it almost impossible to withdraw money from Russia, the circumvention of sanctions and trade via third countries. Oil and gas exports also remain an important source of income.

Other areas of the Russian economy, on the other hand, suffered from the ongoing war. According to the report, there is a shortage of labor, as young skilled workers are either fleeing the country or being drafted. According to Foucart, Russia lacks five million skilled workers. There is also a lack of direct investment in the country, which fell by 8.7 billion dollars in the first three quarters of 2023.

Even a possible victory against Ukraine would not help Russia, according to the economist. It could not afford to rebuild and secure Ukraine. The costs would be too high and Russia would remain largely isolated from the rest of the world market. As a result, the country could “at best hope to become a junior partner that is completely dependent on China”, writes Foucart.

“A protracted stalemate could be the only solution for Russia to avoid a total economic collapse,” concludes the expert. “The Russian regime has no incentive to end the war.” Russia can neither afford to win the war nor to lose it.
------------

War as an economic model means there is no incentive for peace.

[mapuc]

If you zoom out, that momentum is small they advance not that much the advance is about 1% as Ukraine advanced (that was a breakthrough Ukraine retook over 500 settlements and 12,000 square kilometres of territory in the Kharkiv region in 2022) Russia is not winning really why everybody think Russia has already won is beyond me. This is not a breakthrough!

Nowhere did I mentioned Russia has or is about to win nor did I mention any breakthrough. What I said is that they have the momentum the initiative.

One is hoping the weapon aids to Ukraine may turn the tide in Ukraine favour.

Markus

[em2nought]

Zelensky: Russia taking advantage of slow arms delivery

What a whiny biotch. Sugar daddy might need to upgrade. :D

[ET2SN]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UUNYqAFrlFA

:hmmm:

Some points to ponder:

-Putin has nukes. Yes, he's had an arsenal of warheads since he came into power. He will probably have the same arsenal once the current conflict is settled, one way or another. He also has a bad habit of shooting his messengers and pundits. What happens will be entirely up to Putin, and damn the torpedo's.

-Russia has had experience with "resets" and large scale changes for over 100 years. Yet, the more things change -the more they stay the same. :doh:

-Appeasement is not even an option. If Western Europe ramps up for a war, they will get one. If they do nothing, Putin will invade somewhere else. If they all decide to roll over and play nice, Putin will still invade somewhere else. :doh:


Now, discuss. :D If you follow this YouTube series, the same speaker later talks about China and the South China Sea. I haven't watched it yet, but it looks to be worth while. :up: The theme to these videos could also be thought of as "Nice lady explains the world to Zoomers". When someone punches you in the nose, you don't blog about it. You punch back. :O:

[August]

What a whiny biotch. Sugar daddy might need to upgrade. :D

That is pretty condescending considering that the Ukrainians are bleeding and dying in real life for lack of ammo to fight their invaders. Maybe you think this is all some grift but they are the ones shedding blood here, not us.

Have you ever read anything about the American delegation to the French court of Louis the XVI during our revolution? Talk about whiny. Our pleas for assistance were far more numerous, extensive and desperate than anything coming from the Ukrainians.

[Jimbuna]

Russia 'on brink of collapse' as Putin can't get his hands on one basic thing for missiles

Arecent report from the Rhodus Intelligence team has revealed that Russia's missile manufacturing industry is on the verge of collapse due to a critical shortage of one key component-Western machinery. This shortage stems from Russia's over-reliance on computerised manufacturing equipment from Western Europe and East Asia, which has been restricted due to international sanctions and geopolitical tensions.

The report explains that after the fall of the Soviet Union, Russia outsourced much of its industrial production to foreign countries, particularly those aligned with the United States.

The modernisation of Russia's military infrastructure during the 2000s and 2010s relied heavily on mass imports of computerised manufacturing equipment.
This equipment forms the backbone of Russia's missile production capacity, as noted by Rhodus Intelligence: "Putin's military buildup of the 2000s-2010s was based on mass import of computerised manufacturing equipment from the US allies in Western Europe and in East Asia. As these supplies formed the Russian missiles manufacturing base, production was hooked on a permanent needle of spare parts, expendables and software support from the US allies."

The mass replacement of manually controlled Soviet-era machines with automated CNC (Computer Numerical Control) equipment significantly boosted Russia's machining capacity, enabling it to manufacture sophisticated weaponry.

However, this progress came at a steep cost-Russia's near-total dependence on Western technology, software, and integrated manufacturing solutions, which are currently out of reach due to international sanctions.

The report also clarifies China's limited role in Russia's military buildup: "Contrary to the popular view, China has played a very limited role in the Russian military buildup until recently. Being a catching development producer, it could rarely provide the Russian missiles industry with the higher-end equipment it needed.

"These limitations of Chinese capabilities explain the otherwise puzzling absence of Chinese tools on the Russian missile plants. As of 2024, China is only capable of providing the lower end non-integrated products which cannot and will not substitute the Western European integrated solutions in the short to medium term perspective."

Given these challenges, Russia's ability to sustain its missile production in the face of ongoing geopolitical pressures is in serious jeopardy.

The findings suggest that without access to Western technology, Russia's missile manufacturing infrastructure may face significant setbacks, affecting the country's military capabilities in the long term.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/russia-on-brink-of-collapse-as-putin-can-t-get-his-hands-on-one-basic-thing-for-missiles/ar-AA1nV95k?ocid=mailsignout&pc=U591&cvid=7f0a6fb72a2d40259db160cfb6c874a8&ei=24

[Jimbuna]

Ukraine Begins Receiving New Weapons from U.S.

The White House has confirmed that Ukraine has begun receiving weapons from the newly approved U.S. aid package, which was announced last week following its approval by Congress. White House spokeswoman Karin Jean-Pierre reported this development during a briefing.

Jean-Pierre emphasized the need for caution in discussing the specifics of the aid due to operational security concerns.

"Aid is going to Ukraine. They are currently receiving this security support," she stated, expressing optimism that the new weaponry would bolster the Ukrainian armed forces' defensive capabilities on the front lines.

The recent delivery of military aid follows discussions in the Rammstein format meeting, where Lloyd Austin, the U.S. Secretary of Defense, confirmed that the U.S. has allocated $6 billion for military assistance to Ukraine under the USAI (United States Security Assistance Initiative) mechanism.

Jake Sullivan, the U.S. President’s national security advisor, revealed that Ukraine had received long-range ATACMS missiles, with further deliveries expected to continue.

The USAI program is designed to facilitate contracts between the U.S. government and American defense companies to produce new weapons for Ukraine, rather than depleting equipment from U.S. stockpiles. This approach was enabled by President Joe Biden’s recent signing of a legislative package on April 24, which authorizes nearly $61 billion in additional military and economic aid to Ukraine and other U.S. allies.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/ukraine-begins-receiving-new-weapons-from-u-s/ar-AA1nU3NE?ocid=mailsignout&pc=U591&cvid=66bbba75914e4ab7be5bbd9dce99479b&ei=27

[mapuc]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jp7w3b2z01A&ab_channel=CombatVeteranReacts

Markus

[Skybird]

I said I think there is a chance for a Russian operational breakthrough building up. And now, 6 hours ago, Colonel Reisner too starts to speak of the increasing chance of Russia acchieving a "major breakthrough".
What he also says is that the ATCAMS attacks done so far, four if I counted right, did not leave a lasting impression on the Russians. As was to be feared. A few scattered attacks here and there do not make much of a difference, I think you need enough ammo to fire them in volleys and several attacks every day, day for day, over weeks. The Ukrainians obviously do not have enough ATACMS for that. So its headline-creating pinpoint attacks and on targets that are beyond reach of a Ukrainian push on the ground. Which makes them tactically useless so far.
I am thinking longterm here, the ukrainians obviously are in a strictly defesnive position now, and get eaten up, see their ressources in material and men being badly mauled every day, so they use what they are being given for defending themselves by trying to hit the veins and sinews of the Russian pressure wave on the ground: command centres, air force, missiles, and logistics. But by allowing to get locked in this effort, they get mauled up even more. If they do not gain the initiative again (with what...?) they must and will lose. Themerciless law of attritional warfare. The counters go back to zero. Who reaches zero first, looses.



This all slowly turns into a real hopeless fight, I think. No degrees of freedom seem to to be left for the Ukrainian command at the front. If you have both arms engaged to merely hold the roof over your head, you have no more hands free for fighting.

https://www-n--tv-de.translate.goog/politik/Die-Frontfeuerwehr-der-Ukraine-ist-abgenutzt-article24909093.html?_x_tr_sl=de&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de

Scheiße. This could turn into the first decisive turning point of the war since autumn 2022.

To close this gap will cost the Ukrainians many more precious reserves, and I dont bet money that they will be successful in this attempt.



A few days ago, military economist Marcus Keupp told the Kölnische Rundschau newspaper that Russia had lost the war strategically. By the fall of 2023 at the latest, it was clear that the Russians' production rate would not be able to keep up with the attrition rate. How do you see that?


It's not my place to comment on others. However, I would like to warn against hoping for a turnaround in the war, which we haven't seen yet. We have to take the situation seriously and prepare for the worst-case scenario. German Defense Minister Pistorius recently pointed out that Russia is obviously producing more material than it needs for the war. What is the purpose of this overproduction? Are they already preparing for the next war? If you don't consider such possibilities, the surprise can be nasty. We can't say we didn't know.

[Rockstar]

I’m not so sure what we see happening could be considered a breakthrough. Penetration of certain defensive positions? Yes. But a breakthrough is when those defensive lines are penetrated then rapidly exploited. I would hardly consider slogging 1/2 a click per day as a breakthrough. I would think too the toll on Russia manpower would be extremely heavy to get as far as they have. As one Ukrainian General put it, it’s not about holding cities and monuments, it’s about killing Russian soldiers.

[Skybird]

I did not say this is a big breakthrough, I said two or three days ago that there is a big danger of this leading to an operational breakthrough, and Reisner now says its a break into the second and third defense lines which are not as well prepared as the - by now disappeared - first line they had build since 2014, and which were meant for delay only. Reisner also said this could turn into as he called it a major breakthrough. But the Russians have penetrated 2nd and 3rd lines, and are widening and deepening the breach.

Ukraine obviously finds it extremely difficult to scratch together any reserves able to fill the gap and seal it, while the Russians work on it.

The Russian pressure will increase further, due to symbol-heavy May 9th festivities.


Reisner said the situaiton is so depseratwe that the ATACMS attrackiugnCirmea were little help - the firepower must be focussed on sealing the breach now. If they fail, this could be the beginning of the end and lead to the collapse of the whole front int hat district. Hence my fear of what I phrase as "operational breakthrough". If the Russian succeed with this breach, then it gets a real big thing.


In the past two weeks Russia penetrated defences in that sector up to 20km deep, I read. They clean their path with their damn glide bombs. And there can be no doubt that the Ukrainians also take heavy casualties. Its just not as prominently reported in our news.

[em2nought]

That is pretty condescending considering that the Ukrainians are bleeding and dying in real life for lack of ammo to fight their invaders. Maybe you think this is all some grift but they are the ones shedding blood here, not us.

Have you ever read anything about the American delegation to the French court of Louis the XVI during our revolution? Talk about whiny. Our pleas for assistance were far more numerous, extensive and desperate than anything coming from the Ukrainians.

Zelensky is no George Washington. I guess if he was they'd be tearing down his statue at Columbia.

I'm thinking lots of grift, but I'm more worried about Sleepy Joe managing to get us into WW3. I bet he even has the same pajamas. :har:

https://m.media-amazon.com/images/M/MV5BZGYwMTUxODMtZjRjNS00NzRmLWE2MDktMGUyODY2YTcyYm I1XkEyXkFqcGdeQXVyOTc5MDI5NjE@._V1_.jpg

[Reece]

Those pajamas have a nice sheen to them! :D

[August]

Zelensky is no George Washington. I guess if he was they'd be tearing down his statue at Columbia.

I'm thinking lots of grift, but I'm more worried about Sleepy Joe managing to get us into WW3. I bet he even has the same pajamas. :har:




No he's not but at this point in the American revolution not too many people thought all that much of George either having just lost a major part of his army while getting his butt kicked out of Long Island and Manhattan by the British.

[ET2SN]

Here's another deep dive from the Naval War College. Keep in mind this presentation is from 18 months ago, which brings up its own point- not much is changing. :o

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mAXWCit98Eg&t=17s


:hmmm:

[Jimbuna]

'Our victory is inevitable!': Moscow exhibition showcases Western tanks captured from Ukraine

Russian state TV aired footage on Sunday (28 April) showcasing preparations for an upcoming open-air exhibition of Western equipment captured in Ukraine.

The month-long exhibition, scheduled to open in Moscow today (1 May), will feature 30 armoured vehicles, captured from various countries, including the United States. the UK, Germany, France, Sweden, Australia, and South Africa.

Described as a celebration of Russia’s success “against Ukrainian militants and their Western supporters,” the video depicted heavy trucks transporting multi-ton vehicles and cranes lifting them into position in Victory Park on Poklonnaya Hill, Moscow's designated venue for the display.

Signs at the exhibition read: “Our victory is inevitable!”

Among the showcased vehicles was a Leopard tank, which reportedly encountered an anti-tank mine during a battle near Berdychi in Ukraine, resulting in damage to its right track.

Russian state TV channel RU-RTR also shared footage of an Abrams tank still awaiting delivery to Moscow for the exhibition. According to the broadcaster, this tank was hit by an anti-tank missile crew from the Center group of forces under Berdychi.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/dramatic-moment-russian-oil-refinery-explodes-into-giant-fireball-after-drone-attack/ar-AA1nYeH0?ocid=msedgntp&pc=U531&cvid=c244388438fd4cf7c60396a3fff3701b&ei=44

[mapuc]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k28sbxPpirA&ab_channel=Military%26History

Markus

[Skybird]

Next two months may be decisive.


https://edition.cnn.com/2024/05/01/europe/ukraine-russia-advances-us-aid-weapons-intl/index.html

[mapuc]

How well they have performed the Ukrainian throughout Spring and Summer can be judged in the Autumn.

Markus

[mapuc]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aHkemdLiz5M&ab_channel=CombatVeteranReacts

Markus

[Rockstar]

Posts made 1 May from a u.s. based honey pot. Where some friendlies and many of the anti-western/anti-ukraine arsehats hang out.

https://www.moonofalabama.org/

————————

https://t.me/intelslava/58686

���� There are fierce battles for Chasov Yar. The enemy understands all the dire consequences of the loss of this fortified area and has directed all his forces to its defense.
Our units, in turn, literally gnaw out one forest belt after another as they approach the city. Taking the Chasov yar will allow you to gain strategic heights and allow you to seize the initiative in the battle for Donbass.

The fighting is very difficult. The losses on both sides are significant.

https://t.me/remylind21/20013

���� Epic Destruction of Baba Yaga by the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the skies over Georgievka.

————————-

https://t.me/Novichok_Rossiya_2/5866

����After visiting different parts of Ukraine over the past few weeks, here is a brief summary of my observations and assessments.
As I know people love to make their own conclusions based on whatever sources they have, these are my opinions based on visual observations and discussions with various individuals from a specific time and place, I am not Nostradamus, I am not predicting what will happen by a specific time, I am telling you what I see and experience here and now.

1: As long as Ukraine has weapons they will fight AND there will be enough men to fight.

2: The will to fight varies depending where you are in Ukraine, there are still die hards who will sacrifice themselves.

3: Especially in the West of Ukraine, nationalism burns like a fire.

4: The vast majority of Ukrainians absolutely hate Russia and Russians.

5: The contrasts are huge, there is a separate life where people go to fancy restaurants, do family trips and live as if there’s no war.

6: Zelensky still enjoys broad support.

I will deal with the details of my beliefs and assumptions at a later time.

��Masno

https://t.me/Novichok_Rossiya_2/5867

Before anyone asks if Ukraine has men why aren't they able to mobilize them It's simply because they lack enough equipment to army and train every guy. Training and equipping 500,000 men with pistols, machine guns, aks, grenades etc. is a huge task on its own. But even if they get equipment, I personally doubt they can train all of them for an adequate amount of time
https://t.me/Novichok_Rossiya_2/5868

By the way, despite whatever claims there may be or whatever a specific photo or video might show, the reality is that there are only 11000 cases of people dodging mobilisation and being wanted in Ukraine. The vast majority of people called up to fight, fight.
Of course many pay bribes to leave the country, but let me assure you, millions of men remain.

* More than 11 thousand cases against evaders have been opened in Ukraine since 2022, reports the office of the Ukrainian Prosecutor General.

in 2022, 2,431 cases were opened, most of all in Transcarpathia and the Dnipropetrovsk region.

And in 2023 there will already be 6,745 cases. The leaders are again Transcarpathia and Dnepropetrovsk regions, to which Nikolaev region has been added.

The amount of bribes for leaving Ukraine has now increased to $17,000 per person."

��Masno

https://t.me/Novichok_Rossiya_2/5880

Masno's observation from seeing Ukraine's defensive lines up close
According to him, the dragon teeth's are so short that even a high off road vehicle would get over it. Aside from that, digging up of various defence lines continues, many will likely be completed in a few months

https://t.me/Novichok_Rossiya_2/5852

As Ukraine builds it's defensive lines in Kharkov, Russia doesn't let them do it in peace


—————————

Agreed, if Masno is anything to go by the collapse of Ukrainian morale shouldn’t be relied on as a safety valve.

https://t.me/rybar/59670

Development of dual-use logistics on NATO's eastern flank
Against the background of the Quadriga 2024 exercises in Europe, issues of using civilian logistics infrastructure for military purposes (“Military Schengen”) are being studied. The EU's Connecting Europe Facility (CEF) plays a significant role in this.

The reconstruction of the Chop–Uzhgorod railway (Transcarpathian region) to Eurogauge (1430 mm) has already begun. Work on the Ukrainian section is part of the CEF project, which provides for the modernization of transport infrastructure by the end of 2027 to increase the movement of goods to the EU, incl. “dual-use” (as it is written in the documents, the Military Mobility program).

CEF assumed 50% of the costs (from 128.2 million €) in the modernization of three railway checkpoints (RCP) between Hungary, Slovakia and Ukraine, two BCP on the Polish-Ukrainian border and one on the Romanian-Ukrainian border. Work is planned on the Ukrainian railway: from station. Chop to st. Cerna nad Tisou (Slovakia) and Zahony (Hungary) and the Batjevo–Borzhava–Vinogradov–Djakovo section. It is planned to reconstruct the automobile PPR Luzhanka (Ukraine) - Beregsurany (Hungary), Zahony-Chop and Siret (Romania) - Porubnoye (Ukraine).

Without any fuss, work within the CEF began in 2022: the INTERPORT terminal at the railway station has been expanding since March. Haniske pri Kosice (Slovakia, €53 million, completion 2026), reconstruction of two runways (700 and 1800 m) and the Polish airport Rzeszow-Jasionka (€16.5 million, 2024-2025) has begun. In May 2023, reconstruction of the railway infrastructure of the marshalling station began. Valu lui Traiane (Romania) and railway station. in the port of Constanta (43.5 million €, 2025-2026). Thousands of tons of military cargo for Ukraine are delivered weekly through the Rzeszow airfield alone; its modernization will allow it to receive aircraft around the clock.

⭐️The development of NATO logistics is already a trend and makes preparations for war with Russia obvious.

The infrastructure being created, in addition to delivering military cargo to Ukraine, will be used to export the remaining Ukrainian resources, agricultural products and valuables to Europe to pay off Ukraine’s exorbitant debts.

[Jimbuna]

France to send troops to Ukraine if Russia breaks through front lines

Emmanuel Macron has said he would be prepared to send troops to Ukraine if Vladimir Putin's forces break through the front lines - further raising the risk of NATO forces clashing with Russia's armies. In an interview published today, the French president said the issue of sending troops would 'legitimately' arise if Kyiv and president Volodymyr Zelensky made such a request.

The Economist said Macron gave the interview after delivering a keynote speech last week where he declared that Europe is 'mortal' and could 'die' partly due to the threat posed by Russian aggression after its February 2022 invasion of Ukraine. It also came as Russia claimed its forces had taken another town in Donetsk, eastern Ukraine, with Moscow's armies continuing to push against Kyiv's defences.

Russia is rushing to advance against struggling Ukrainian forces ahead of the long-awaited arrival of the bulk of US weapons to the front for Kyiv's outgunned troops. 'I'm not ruling anything out, because we are facing someone who is not ruling anything out,' Macron said when asked if he stood by comments earlier this year not excluding the sending of Western troops that sent shockwaves around Europe. Such a move would see NATO troops go head-to-head with those in the Russian army, dramatically increasing the risk of an escalation.

What's more, some analysts believe that Russia could be on the verge of launching a major new offensive in Ukraine. Macron said 'if Russia decided to go further, we will in any case all have to ask ourselves this question' of sending troops, describing his refusal to rule out such a move as a 'strategic wake-up call for my counterparts'. He described Russia as 'a power of regional destabilisation' and 'a threat to Europeans' security'. 'I have a clear strategic objective: Russia cannot win in Ukraine,' Macron said. 'If Russia wins in Ukraine, there will be no security in Europe,' he warned. 'Who can pretend that Russia will stop there? What security will there be for the other neighbouring countries, Moldova, Romania, Poland, Lithuania and the others?'

Under NATO's Article 5, all members are obliged to defend others in the case of an armed attack. Should Russia directly attack a NATO member, then the U.S., the UK, France and Germany are among those who would be expected to respond. Any such conflict risks growing into a global war, the like of which has not been seen since the end of the Second World War. The release of the interview came as Moscow's defence ministry said troops had 'fully liberated the settlement of Berdychi.' Kyiv said it had retreated from the village, northwest of the Moscow-held town of Avdiivka, over the weekend.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/france-to-send-troops-to-ukraine-if-russia-breaks-through-front-lines/ss-AA1o2IeL?ocid=msedgntp&pc=U531&cvid=92a33f7bfea249ab8d4460d4cc290698&ei=21#image=2

[mapuc]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ge0wSBk1sqc&ab_channel=CombatVeteranReacts

(Not to spam this thread)

Dargo once wrote:
It's beyond me that people actually think Russia are going to win this war.

Let us chew on the word "Win"

The word "Win" could mean a lot.

If we are talking about conquer entire Ukraine, then I would say NO
If we are talking about conquer parts of Ukraine, then I would say YES.

Markus

[mapuc]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EWSBqlTIG5c&ab_channel=UkraineMatters

Markus

[Skybird]

The word "Win" could mean a lot.

If we are talking about conquer entire Ukraine, then I would say NO
If we are talking about conquer parts of Ukraine, then I would say YES.


You missed the third option. Russia stays where it is and bombs the sh!+ out of Ukraine (industry, power, infrastructure,traffic and supply grids, housing) until no stone is left unturned.

[mapuc]

You missed the third option. Russia stays where it is and bombs the sh!+ out of Ukraine (industry, power, infrastructure,traffic and supply grids, housing) until no stone is left unturned.

Thank you. This option never crossed my mind.

Would this mean Russia will win ? I say Yes

However Ukraine could do a Croatia-thing.

They surrende to Serbia, but in secret they build up their army and then they attacked and toke back lost land from Serbia.

Markus

[Skybird]

Could they? Easier said than done with your industry and powergrid in smoking ruins and your financial sovereignty being non-existing.

There are estimations that the costs for rebuilding Ukraine minus the 20% lost territory, if the Russian destruction would end now (why would it?), would cost minimum halve a trillion US dollars in the coming years alone. And that is an optimistic scenario. There are calculations increasing this sum by severla factors.

Rearmament and such luxury features are not included in that.


Washington expects Europe to bear the very most of this sum. Go figure.

[mapuc]

Could they? Easier said than done with your industry and powergrid in smoking ruins and your financial sovereignty being non-existing.

Oh man never gave that a thought.

Markus

[August]

Thank you. This option never crossed my mind.

Would this mean Russia will win ? I say Yes

However Ukraine could do a Croatia-thing.

They surrende to Serbia, but in secret they build up their army and then they attacked and toke back lost land from Serbia.

Markus


I think if Russia defeats Ukraine they will try to purge the Ukrainians of anyone and everyone who could organize such an army. There will be wide scale mass arrests and executions. The road to the Gulags will be heavily traveled and few will ever return. Just ask the Germans what happens when the Russians "win".

Serbia didn't absorb Croatia but I think Russia would certainly annex the rest of a defeated Ukraine.

[ET2SN]

Just a reminder, you don't nuke an enemy when you share a common border. :03:

[Jimbuna]

Russia-Ukraine war: Frontline update as of May 2

In Ukraine, there were 106 engagements on the front line over the past day, according to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Russian attacks

In total, the enemy launched 2 missile and 58 air strikes, carried out 89 attacks from multiple launch rocket systems at the positions of Ukrainian troops and settlements.

Frontline situation

In the Volyn and Polissia directions, the operational situation remains unchanged. No signs of enemy offensive groups were detected.

In the Siversk and Slobozhanske directions, the enemy maintains a military presence in the border areas, conducts sabotage and reconnaissance activities, shells settlements from the territory of the Russian Federation, and increases the density of minefields along the state border of Ukraine. It conducted air strikes near the settlements of Krasny Khutir in the Chernihiv region; Seredyna-Buda in the Sumy region; Dergachi, Lyptsi, and Rublene in the Kharkiv region. More than 20 settlements came under enemy artillery and mortar fire, including Bleshnia in Chernihiv region; Yastrubyne, Oleksandrivka, Volfyne, Vodolahy, Velyka Pysarivka and Stepok in Sumy region.
In the Kupiansk direction, Ukrainian troops repelled 9 attacks in the vicinity of Synkivka, Novoiehorivka, Kyslivka, Berestove in the Kharkiv region; Stelmakhivka in the Luhansk region. About 10 settlements came under artillery and mortar fire, including Synkivka, Petropavlivka, and Kotliarivka in Kharkiv region.

In the Lyman direction, Defense forces repelled 12 attacks in the areas of Hrekivka, Nevske, and Serebrianske forestry in the Luhansk region; Terny, Yampolivka, Torske in the Donetsk region. Artillery and mortar shelling damaged more than 10 settlements, including Makiivka in Luhansk region; Terny and Torske in Donetsk region.

In the Bakhmut direction, Ukrainian troops repelled 19 attacks near the towns of Bilohorivka in Luhansk region; Verkhnekamianske, Rozdolivka, Vyimka, Spirne, Novyi, Klishchiivka and Ivanivske in Donetsk region, where the enemy, with the support of aviation, tried to improve the tactical situation. The enemy also conducted an air strike near Druzhba, Donetsk region. More than 10 settlements came under artillery and mortar fire, including Hryhorivka, Kalynivka, and Klishchiivka in the Donetsk region.

In the Avdiivka direction, Ukrainian troops repelled 31 attacks in the vicinity of Arkhanhelske, Sokil, Semenivka, Umanske, Kalynove, Yasnobrodivka, Netailove, and Pervomaiske in the Donetsk region, where the enemy tried to force Ukrainian troops out of their positions. The enemy also launched air strikes near the settlements of Vozdvyzhenka, Novooleksandrivka, Yevhenivka, and Novoselivka Persha in the Donetsk region. About 20 settlements came under artillery and mortar fire, including Arkhanhelske, Novopokrovske, and Sokil in the Donetsk region.

In the Novopavlivka direction, Defense forces continue to hold back the enemy near Kostiantynivka and Urozhaine in the Donetsk region, where the enemy, supported by aviation, tried to break through the defense of Ukrainian troops 13 times. The enemy launched air strikes near the settlement of Vodiane, Donetsk region. More than 10 settlements came under artillery and mortar fire, including Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, and Vuhledar in the Donetsk region.

In the Orikhiv direction, the enemy made 1 attack on the positions of Ukrainian defenders near Robotyno, Zaporizhzhia region. It carried out air strikes near the settlements of Vremivka and Staromaiorske in the Donetsk region; Piatykhatky in the Zaporizhzhia region. About 15 settlements came under artillery and mortar fire, including Bilohiria, Robotyne, and Kamianske in Zaporizhzhia region.

In the Kherson direction, the enemy is not abandoning its intention to dislodge our units from bridgeheads on the left bank of the Dnipro River. During the day, it made 3 unsuccessful attacks on the positions of Ukrainian troops in the vicinity of Krynky, Kherson region. About 20 settlements came under artillery and mortar fire, including Chervonyi Maiak, Olhivka, Tiahynka, Ivanivka, Tokarivka, Novotiahynka, Kizomys in Kherson region and the city of Kherson.

Enemy losses

During the day, the aviation of the Defense Forces struck 9 areas of concentration of personnel and 1 enemy anti-aircraft missile system.

Missile troops destroyed 2 ammunition depots, 1 artillery system and 1 enemy anti-aircraft missile system.

The situation at the front

As of the morning of May 2, enemy losses amounted to 470,870 soldiers. Over the last day, the Ukrainian Armed Forces eliminated 1,030 Russian soldiers.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/russia-ukraine-war-frontline-update-as-of-may-2/ar-AA1o3pbd?ocid=msedgntp&pc=U531&cvid=b2caccc4cdc140a7b2fa1bccc66cdba4&ei=12

[Jimbuna]

Russia using chemical choking agents in Ukraine, US says

The US has accused Russia of deploying chemical weapons as a "method of warfare" in Ukraine, in violation of international laws banning their use.

State department officials said Russia used the choking agent chloropicrin to win "battlefield gains" over Ukraine.

The allegations, which US officials said were not an "isolated" incident, would contravene the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC), which Russia signed.

The Kremlin rejected the accusations, calling them "baseless".

Spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters in Moscow that Russia stood by its obligations under the CWC, which prohibits states from developing or acquiring new weapons. Some 193 states have ratified the convention.

The Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW), a global watchdog that oversees implementation of the CWC, says a chemical weapon is a substance used to cause intentional death or harm through its toxic properties.

Chloropicrin - which the US says Russia has used to "dislodge Ukrainian forces from fortified positions" - is an oily substance which was widely used during World War One. It causes irritation of the lungs, eyes and skin and can cause vomiting, nausea and diarrhoea, according to the US Centre for Disease Control (CDC).

The chemical's use in war is expressly banned under the CWC, and is listed as a choking agent by the OPCW.

The state department also said Moscow had regularly used "riot control agents," or tear gas, during the war.

President Joe Biden has previously warned Russia against deploying chemical weapons in Ukraine. In March 2022, weeks after Moscow launched its invasion, Mr Biden vowed that President Vladimir Putin would pay a "severe price" if he did authorise the use of chemical weapons.

"We would respond if he uses it. The nature of the response would depend on the nature of the use," Mr Biden said.

But there have been consistent reports that Moscow has ignored that warning. US Assistant Secretary for Arms Control Mallory Stewart has previously said Russia was using riot control agents in the conflict.

And Ukraine says its troops have faced mounting chemical attacks in recent months. The Reuters news agency reported earlier this year that Russian forces had used grenades loaded with CS and CN tear gases.

The report added that at least 500 Ukrainian soldiers have been treated for exposure to toxic gases, and that one had died after suffocating on tear gas.

Three Russian bodies linked to the country's biological and chemical weapons programme were sanctioned by the state department for their links to the production of chemical agents. Other firms that contributed to the government entities were also sanctioned.

In 2017, the OPCW said Russia had destroyed the last of its Cold War-era stockpile of the weapons, as required under the CWC.

But Moscow has since been accused of making incomplete declarations of its stockpile, according to the UK's House of Commons library.

Since 2017, Russia has been accused of at least two chemical attacks - the Salisbury attack on a former Soviet intelligence officer and the 2020 poisoning of the late Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny.

The allegations come as part of a broader tranche of US sanctions which targeted 30 individuals, including three people officials say were involved in Navalny's death.

The men are all officials at the Siberian prison colony where the opposition activist died earlier this year. Russia denies involvement in the opposition leader's death. Navalny's widow has accused President Putin of killing him.

Meanwhile, Russian forces in eastern Ukraine have continued their steady advance ahead of Victory Day celebrations on 9 May - the holiday commemorating Soviet victory in World War Two.

Much of the fighting has been taking place around Chasiv Yar, a Kyiv-controlled stronghold which Russia has been trying to reach after seizing the city of Avdiivka. It is thought Moscow wants to seize the town ahead of next week's celebrations.

It comes as President Volodymyr Zelensky dismissed the head of Ukraine's Security Service's (SBU) cyber-security department, Illya Vityuk, amid allegations that he tried to use his position to punish a Ukrainian journalist who had reported on allegations of corruption against him.

The reporter was subsequently summoned to a military recruitment centre, prompting military chief Col Gen Oleksandr Syrskyi to launch an investigation.

Elsewhere, Human Rights Watch - a non-governmental organisation - has called for a war crimes investigation after it unearthed evidence that Russian forces executed over a dozen surrendering Ukrainian troops. The events allegedly occurred between December 2023 and February 2024, the body said in a statement.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68941220

[mapuc]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P7TE3pALAqY&ab_channel=CombatVeteranReacts

Markus

[Jimbuna]

Russia pays record 25% of budget for Putin's paranoia - US intelligence


Russian dictator Vladimir Putin's paranoid fear of alleged Western attempts to limit Russia's power has led to the spending of about 25% of the Russian state budget on militarization, according to Director of National Intelligence Avril Gaines.

These estimates were made during a hearing in the US Congress on May 2.

Gaines said that NATO's efforts were aimed at assuring the opposite - that the West does not threaten Russia, but Putin himself accelerated events he was trying to avoid by his own decisions. We are talking about the accession of neighboring Finland and Sweden to NATO.

The intelligence chief is convinced that Putin continues to believe that there is a threat to Russia and believes that increased militarization will convey this message to Western and domestic audiences.
Senator Angus King asked how Putin can be convinced that NATO is not an aggressive bloc and is not going to invade Russia. According to the senator, Russian intelligence services are inherently a paranoid organization.

“Yes, I agree with you that there is some paranoia involved, he (Putin - ed.) does believe that the security of his country is in some way threatened,” Gaines replied.

The Russian dictator's strategic goals, according to her, also remain unchanged - he continues to see NATO expansion and support for Ukraine as confirmation of his belief that the United States and Europe want to limit Russia's power.

In addition, Gaines said that Putin is trying to use global events, such as the escalating conflict between Israel and Hamas, to "divide us from our allies".

Putin is now convinced that domestic and international events are developing in his favor, the head of the National Intelligence Service said. She predicts that Moscow's aggressive tactics will continue, and the war is unlikely to end anytime soon.

The dictator is ready to spend more and more budget funds on its continuation. “Putin has increased defense spending to nearly 7% of Russia's GDP, almost double the historical average,” Gaines said, adding that the Russian defense budget now accounts for about 25% of all federal spending.

Threats to other Russia's neighbors

In Moldova, the authorities are convinced that the Kremlin will try to undermine the country's rapprochement with the European Union.

According to British intelligence, Russia is planning to target Moldova with a wave of so-called hybrid attacks before the presidential election and the referendum on EU accession.

Vadym Skibitskyi, a representative of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine, believes that if Ukraine's neighbors do not find a way to further increase defense production to help Kyiv, they will also eventually be in Russia's crosshairs. He is convinced that the Russians will take over the Baltic states in seven days. At the same time, Skibitskyi said that NATO's reaction time is ten days.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/russia-pays-record-25-of-budget-for-putin-s-paranoia-us-intelligence/ar-AA1o58Ji?ocid=msedgntp&pc=U531&cvid=62246f57c5404cbcafdfbddb6606b8d7&ei=22

[Skybird]

[Frankfurter Rundschau] The USA has bought 81 Soviet-designed fighter planes and bombers at auction. This was reported by the Ukrainian daily newspaper Kyiv Post. The seller is Kazakhstan. For several years, the country has been gradually replacing its outdated fleet with more modern aircraft, relying on both Russian and Western manufacturers.

As part of this process, it was announced last October that a further large batch, 117 aircraft in total, are to be sold. These include MiG-31 interceptors, MiG-27 fighter-bombers, MiG-29 fighters and Su-24 bombers from the 1970s and 1980s. The estimated purchase price was one billion tenge, the equivalent of around 2.1 million euros.

The Kazakh side pointed out in the offer that the aircraft were in an unserviceable condition and that their modernization was considered economically impractical. Their usefulness as a source of spare parts was limited. Nevertheless, the USA is said to have acquired 81 of these aircraft via offshore companies. This is according to the Russian news site reporter.ru and the Ukrainian Telegram channel Insider UA. The aircraft that the USA is said to have purchased include several MiG-27s, MiG-29s and Su-24s.

[mapuc]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E1-4IABgcVU&ab_channel=CombatVeteranReacts

Markus

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v9xseuezhtg

[mapuc]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YKh0qepJ90c&ab_channel=Military%26History

Markus

[em2nought]

[Frankfurter Rundschau] [I]The USA has bought 81 Soviet-designed fighter planes and bombers at auction.

Maybe The Republic of Texas is expanding their Air Force. :hmmm: Hmm, wonder when they changed the name from "Confederate Air Force" to Commemorative Air Force? The year 2000? Weak! :D Kilroy's Air Force would have been so much better!

https://commemorativeairforce.org/

https://yt3.ggpht.com/a-/AAuE7mBd3yuCHU6jRZVGJhBAuQf9m7GT1lDjHip6bw=s900-mo-c-c0xffffffff-rj-k-no

If the USA ditches the A-10 I hope Texas buys them all. :D

[mapuc]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KReGOLxB_iU&ab_channel=CombatVeteranReacts

Markus

[Skybird]

https://www-fr-de.translate.goog/wirtschaft/russlands-wirtschafft-sanktionen-verluste-putin-ukraine-krieg-probleme-kriegskasse-zr-93053830.html?_x_tr_sl=de&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de

Continuing the war and the militarization of society and economy as precondition to prevent economic collapse. That goes at the direction I always was imagining when doubting the Russian collapse is so imminent that it would play a role for the Ukraine war. All you hopefuls: it won't, live with it. The war will not to be decided by a Russian economic collapse. Or an internal rebellion against Putin. Or his predecessor not being even more viscous than Putin himself was. Or the fairy queen turning things for the better.

Russian economy and society will pay a heavy price for all this, I never doubted that. But I always said that this will not happen before plenty of water has flowed from the rivers into the sea. The Soviet Union was economically done already in the early 70s at the latest - and then still kept on floating until 1989, thats a two decades split. Dont bet money on that you will see it happening again during the rest of your lifespan. It could happen earlier than I expect, yes: due to a black swan, for example. But I don't give it a high probability at all. "Hope is not a strategy", said Israeli General Sharon.

[mapuc]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bSPnsjfEKaU&ab_channel=DenysDavydov

Markus

[Skybird]

https://www-achgut-com.translate.goog/artikel/verzweifelt_die_ukraine?_x_tr_sl=de&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de

I do not see how Ukraine can throw the rudder around again. The US aid comes too late. I think and they write the fall of Tchassyv Yar is only a question of time. I have doubts that Charkiv can hold out, it will either fall to Russia - or suffer the fate of cities like Mariupol, Bakhmut and others: getting completely destroyed. Odessa is at risk, too. The city was claimed to be more Russian than any other outside Crimea before the war, and see how Putin nevertheless treats it.

Any talk of a Ukrainian offensive in 2025 to me currently is nothing but daydreaming. The heavier population and economic weight of Russia now mercilessly makes itself felt. There is no escape from the math. Plus Russia has allies that are much less hesitent and scrupolous than the West is towards Ukraine. North Korea. China. Sanction breakers from the West. Big states like India, Brazil, South Africa who take at least a desinterested stand on Ukraine, and do busienss with Russia. Minimum 80% of the global population is not with Ukraine in this war.

Things look very, very, very bad. I assume this summer Ukraine will not get away from a Russian offensive as "cheaply" as before.

[mapuc]

Even though I have a sceptic view on the situation in Ukraine I keep up a hope for the best.

A totally free Ukraine...no way! The Ukrainians does not have the manpower and/or the material to retake the occupied areas.

The question who pop-up is:

Who of these two combatant will first demand a negotiation ?

Markus

[Dargo]

Even though I have a sceptic view on the situation in Ukraine I keep up a hope for the best.

A totally free Ukraine...no way! The Ukrainians does not have the manpower and/or the material to retake the occupied areas.

The question who pop-up is:

Who of these two combatant will first demand a negotiation ?

MarkusI see Ukraine sincerely trying to start peace talks (Switzerland) Türkiye tried it in 2022 China later came with a peace plan, but it is always Russia that declines any peace Russia wants a surrender (unconditional) of Ukraine. Ukraine tried after 1917 to become independent, on 18 March 1921 Ukraine lost that status the Bolsheviks and certainly Stalin never forgave Ukraine for this, resulting in millions of dead later (Holodomor). Putin has the same he needs Ukraine else Russia will not survive in the future Ukraine was and is important for Russia, without it Russia cannot compete with the West. Without Ukraine the USSR would have collapsed decades earlier Russia does not want the whole only eastern Ukraine they think they can control that the west of Ukraine is to western that will never accept Russia as ruler. Think he is wrong think the whole is certainly with this invasion so anti-Russian this will be another Afghanistan again for Russia. Ukraine partisans fought the USSR for more than 5 years after WWII, the Crimea was Khrushchev peace offer.

[mapuc]

Serious accusation I must say

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aFBE7cgAaiM&ab_channel=CombatVeteranReacts

Markus

[Skybird]

The latest assessment by Colonel Reisner.


https://www-n--tv-de.translate.goog/politik/Die-Ukraine-versucht-Brennpunkte-zu-schaffen-article24922913.html?_x_tr_sl=de&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de

[mapuc]

This person have an another view on the matter.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-6eb-eHO_yc&ab_channel=UkraineMatters

Edit
Here's another person with a positive view on the Ukrainian situation
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nqz6_UA8KeQ&ab_channel=Military%26History
End edit

Markus

[mapuc]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wrsVLshlQC8&ab_channel=CombatVeteranReacts

Markus

[Skybird]

Not really surprising, NATO must be expected to do homework like this in the background. I just wonder what the results are, considering how badly prepared for any sort of war European NATO states are.



[Frankfurter Rundschau] Brussels - NATO is said to have defined secret “red lines” for entering the war in Ukraine. Citing sources in the NATO leadership, the Italian newspaper La Repubblica reported that there is growing concern about a Russian provocation. The alliance is therefore examining possible action plans. At the same time, the report on Sunday (5 May) emphasized that Nato had no operational plans to actually send troops to Ukraine.


It is currently assessing certain scenarios internally - and defining guidelines for direct war involvement. These are contingency plans, according to La Repubblica. The first “red line” is the direct or indirect involvement of third parties in the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine. The focus is particularly on ensuring that no corridor is created between Kiev and Belarus.


According to the report, the second scenario is a military provocation by Russia against the Baltic states, Poland or a targeted attack on Moldova. According to the report, it does not have to be an invasion of Russia - a military strike to test NATO could be enough for an intervention. According to the Italian newspaper, the aim is to be prepared for all scenarios. Nato has not yet commented on the report.


The alleged setting of guidelines for a NATO intervention follows statements by French President Emmanuel Macron. He no longer explicitly ruled out the deployment of ground troops in Ukraine: “If the Russians were to break through the front lines, if there were a Ukrainian request - which is not the case today - then we should legitimately ask ourselves the question,” Macron said in an interview with the British magazine The Economist. “I'm not ruling anything out, because we have someone opposite who is not ruling anything out either,” he added, referring to Russian President Vladimir Putin. Nevertheless, the French head of state has already been criticized for his words within Europe.

[Rockstar]

… French President Emmanuel Macron. He no longer explicitly ruled out the deployment of ground troops in Ukraine: “If the Russians were to break through the front lines, if there were a Ukrainian request - which is not the case today - then we should legitimately ask ourselves the question,” Macron said in an interview with the British magazine The Economist. “I'm not ruling anything out, because we have someone opposite who is not ruling anything out either,” he added, referring to Russian President Vladimir Putin. Nevertheless, the French head of state has already been criticized for his words within Europe.


Criticized for which words? For saying France will send troops to Ukraine within a year. Or just recently saying “We are not at war with Russia or Russian people, and have no desire for regime change in Moscow” and then sending France’s ambassador to Putin inauguration. ?

[Skybird]

If there is a war in which one takes a side - and NATO certainly has taken side with Ukraine and against Russia for sure - then reason commands to not take any option off the table prematurely like Europe and like Biden did. This way you only signal the enemy what he must do and which inhibitory standards he must break to secure his win. Telling early what all one will not do, under no circumstances, almost guarantees own defeat. One could as well say "Hey enemy, do this and this and this and that, and we will quit."

Keep the enemy guessing instead.

[Rockstar]

Jeffries expressed concerns that despite billions of dollars in military aid from the United States, if Ukraine cannot secure victory over Russia, America may be compelled to intervene directly in the conflict.

U.S. could allow for American troop deployment to Ukraine - Democratic House leader Jeffries

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/us-could-allow-for-american-troop-deployment-to-ukraine-democratic-house-leader-jeffries/ar-BB1lT6Tu

"We cannot allow Ukraine to fall, because if it does, there is a significant possibility that America will have to intervene in the conflict — not just with our money, but with our troops," he told CBS News.

[mapuc]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CJ9tJDdcRl8&ab_channel=CombatVeteranReacts

Markus

[Dargo]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VMMVH0XfkFg

[mapuc]

Can Ukraine fight on two front ?

Have heard rumours about Russia are planning on opening an extra front.

Does Ukraine need help to do this ?

Markus

[Rockstar]

Can Ukraine fight on two front ?

Have heard rumours about Russia are planning on opening an extra front.

Does Ukraine need help to do this ?

Markus


IMO if Ukraine’s border defenses near Kharkiv are anything like whats between them and Belarus. I’d wager Russia chances of achieving anything meaningful on that new front would be slim to none.

[mapuc]

IMO if Ukraine’s border defenses near Kharkiv are anything like whats between them and Belarus. I’d wager Russia chances of achieving anything meaningful on that new front would be slim to none.

Hope you're right. Maybe Russia is thinking an extra time before giving the march(correct spelled?) order

I don't know how many battalion there is around Kharkiv and Sumy and if it is enough to stop the Russian. If not Ukraine need to draw troops from other areas.

But I hope you're right

Markus

[Skybird]

An attack now seems to come too late. Thank Scholz.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ukraine-war-crimea-bridge-russia-land-routes-b2540140.html?bezuggrd=NWL&utm_source=sondermailing

In other words: the Russians have managed to SHORTEN their supply lines. Good for them. It also shows confidence that they can defend these.


We should now provide weapons that allow Ukraine to attack these new supply routes. I wonder if the ATACMS already got their teeth pulled by Russian jamming. Ther ehave been severla attacks with the newly delivered ATACMS - and they seem to have had surpringly little effect on the Russians' actions. Practically none.

[Skybird]

IMO if Ukraine’s border defenses near Kharkiv are anything like whats between them and Belarus. I’d wager Russia chances of achieving anything meaningful on that new front would be slim to none.
Glide bombs.


So far Ukraine has no recipe against these, and Russia bombs itself a free path where it uses these. If they attack Charkiv and ukraine can hold the city, they will stop them not before but most liekly in the city.



In other words, Charkiv will get obliterated and wiped out like other cities before.

[mapuc]

Haven't they attempt this before. I seem to recall it

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QjzT1xx8kzI&ab_channel=CombatVeteranReacts

Markus

[August]

Haven't they attempt this before. I seem to recall it

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QjzT1xx8kzI&ab_channel=CombatVeteranReacts

Markus




I believe they have and will likely try again.

[Dargo]

Glide bombs.


So far Ukraine has no recipe against these, and Russia bombs itself a free path where it uses these. If they attack Charkiv and ukraine can hold the city, they will stop them not before but most liekly in the city.



In other words, Charkiv will get obliterated and wiped out like other cities before.Usually there are diversionary tactics before an offensive starts. Two years ago, the Ukrainians pretended to attack Kherson, then advanced to Kharkiv and liberated more than 12,000 square kilometres. The chances of something like that succeeding with the Russians seem slim, since the Americans are monitoring Russian troop movements. The logistical preparation for such an offensive takes months. There is certainly no breakthrough. I think Russia will highlight these conquests in the May 9 celebrations. In that sense, it is important for propaganda. But this ground gain is really only small beer.

On paper, it is possible, of course, but personally I don't believe in it very much. First, because the Ukrainian defences are very deep after the first line, there is a second and a third. Another reason is that the Russians are not good at waging a war of movement, where armoured vehicles and infantry advance together, while being supported by air power. It is difficult to coordinate such a thing well. The Russian army usually focuses on one spot and then uses very heavy force to take it. Kharkiv and its surrounding defence area is big this is not Bakhmut or Avdiivka those cities took months and in case of Avdiivka years to conquer both because Ukraine ran out of munition that has changed Ukraine gets the munition do not see Russia take Kharkiv this year also not in 2025.

In my opinion, the Russians have two options. In the first, the Russian army moves further west from Donetsk and Luhansk, then we will see a continuation of the current fighting at Avdiivka. Or, at Cheyiv Yar, the Russian army tries to advance northward toward the cities of Kramatorsk and Kharkiv. The Ukrainians do have to decide at some point whether to counterattack. They have postponed that decision until when the Russian offensive begins (May or June). By withdrawing incrementally, the Ukrainians are gaining time. Only when we know where the Russians are attacking will they decide exactly how to respond. I do think that the offensive and Ukraine's reaction will determine the course of the war.

[Dargo]

I believe they have and will likely try again.
Yeah, many times not only on the president alone but a whole range of political and military in high positions that is Russia only strategic goal to behead Ukraine so they can take control all other yada yada by Putin is yeah yada yada.

[mapuc]

Copy the link instead of getting the message age controlled (Except the /url)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qyiybFA7N6U&ab_channel=DivineJustice[/url]

Markus

[Skybird]

Mapuc, that is a collage of randomly chosen clips, no news worth to be called that. In other words: propaganda drivel.

[mapuc]

^ Thank you Skybird, it will not be posted video from them hereafter.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-7HFaJCxWw8&ab_channel=CombatVeteranReacts

Markus

[Skybird]

Congratulations, Russia. You are celebrating today the victory of the Gulag over the KZ and the triumph of Stalinist genocide over Nazi genocide. Long live Russian mass murder and fascism! :yeah:

:Kaleun_Cheers:

[mapuc]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CQSAHh57kwQ&ab_channel=CombatVeteranReacts

Markus

[Skybird]

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/05/09/world/video/russia-ukraine-war-u-s-aid-sciutto-liveshot-050908aseg1-cnni-world-fast



https://edition.cnn.com/videos/tv/2024/05/09/amanpour-golodryga-hodges-ukraine.cnn


General Hodges has a perception voyage behind him. No more super-optimism by him. Good. He killed my last nerve when he was making it appear as if liberating of Crimea was just a question of time inside 2023. The failure of Western politics seem to have sunk into him. In other words, when i listen to him these days, he sounds far more realistic to me now.

[Rockstar]

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/05/09/world/video/russia-ukraine-war-u-s-aid-sciutto-liveshot-050908aseg1-cnni-world-fast



https://edition.cnn.com/videos/tv/2024/05/09/amanpour-golodryga-hodges-ukraine.cnn


General Hodges has a perception voyage behind him. No more super-optimism by him. Good. He killed my last nerve when he was making it appear as if liberating of Crimea was just a question of time inside 2023. The failure of Western politics seem to have sunk into him. In other words, when i listen to him these days, he sounds far more realistic to me now.

That’s one of the things congress demanded of the Biden executive branch in the recently passed supplemental, SUBMIT A PLAN. Which is kinda scary when ya think about it especially considering how long we been dumping money into it without having a clue why.

Sec. 504. Not later than 45 days after the date of enactment of this Act, the Secretary of State and the Secretary of Defense, in consultation with the heads of other relevant Federal agencies, as appropriate, shall submit to the Committees on Appropriations, Armed Services, and Foreign Relations of the Senate and the Committees on Appropriations, Armed Services, and Foreign Affairs of the House of Representatives a strategy regarding United States support for Ukraine against aggression by the Russian Federation

“as long as it takes”, is not a strategy.

[Skybird]

I think the Why is clear, all they lack is the determination to do what is needed to get there. And that is not just Biden's fault, but also the Trumpists' guilt since they delayed it endlessly not for the reason of seeing no plan, but to deny the government any movement forward at all - no matter at what direction. Total boycott and bringing all and everythign to a standstill if possible was the motto: to benefit from this during the election campaign.


The lack of clear vision and determination continues through most of Europe. The art of walking upright has been unlearned.

[Rockstar]

I think the Why is clear, all they lack is the determination to do what is needed to get there. And that is not just Biden's fault, but also the Trumpists' guilt since they delayed it endlessly not for the reason of seeing no plan, but to deny the government any movement forward at all - no matter at what direction. Total boycott and bringing all and everythign to a standstill if possible was the motto: to benefit from this during the election campaign.


The lack of clear vision and determination continues through most of Europe. The art of walking upright has been unlearned.

My blame is not on Biden or Trump. Putin is the one who invaded, I blame him. However Biden is now the President the responsibility is his and all I’ve heard from him and European & NATO leaders just chirp “as long as it takes” which is no plan. Our congress demanded of Biden a strategy. I can only assume now its classified or he still don’t have one, but hey the 45 days isn’t up yet. Hopefully we get to hear something soon.

[mapuc]

Said it before I'm sceptic to the situation, however I have hopes.

Not to retake the entire occupied areas no.
Ukraine does not have the manpower or material to fulfil such a massive task.
Or would they inflict such a damage on the Russians that they see no other way than retreat ?

Russia is they starting to change the way they fight..E.g. Read somewhere that reserves from (now I forgot the name of this Russian city) was send to military complex where they would undergo basic training. If true then it is a change from before where a reservist was called in and send directly to the front.

Markus

[August]

...all I’ve heard from him and European & NATO leaders just chirp “as long as it takes” which is no plan.


It was good enough for us when we went to war with the Japanese and Germans.

[Rockstar]

It was good enough for us when we went to war with the Japanese and Germans.

Well looking at Sec 504 it obvious congress doesn’t think “as long as it takes” isn’t much a plan either. :yep:

In World War II there were strategies and goals. We advanced a strategy that as soon as possible “we must come to grips with the enemy ground forces.” The Brits wanted to avoid direct confrontation whereas the U.S. strategy was akin to the Germans of going after the enemy hammer and tong.

In the Pacific “as long as it takes” wasn’t imo the strategy either. Rather it seemed more like “end it as soon as possible” when we nuked the hell out of Japan.

The common strategy above appears to be lay waste to the enemy and accept nothing less than unconditional surrender. Presently Ukraine doesn’t seem to be able to do that and I’m not sure we can just keep throwing money at the problem forever either.

I’ve also thought that maybe our interest might be to weaken Russian influence, economy and military to the point they are forced to leave. Which I can get behind but it would nice to hear from the CinC what the hell the goals are. I know Biden also changed his tune a few months ago from “as long as it takes” to “as long as we can” either one to me isn’t very reassuring.

[mapuc]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JkDSHYrxDy4&ab_channel=SkyNews

Markus

[mapuc]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CEL6FxvgQP4&ab_channel=UkraineMatters

Markus

[Skybird]

Every military engagement, by war or proxy war, need clear definition of political intention. This intention must get translated into mission objectives. The plan must b made so to realize and achieve these objectives. Achieving them marks the end of war condition and exit strategy.


The only such plan in military adventures of the past 35 years or so was finding Osama Bin Laden and killing him. And even that got messed up afterwards.

[Skybird]

Russian glide bombs. The biggest is around 1500 kg, thats ~50% heavier than the American MK-84. Small glide bombs cost Russia just 20,000 coins.



https://www.dw.com/en/war-in-ukraine-russian-glide-bombs-pose-increasing-threat/video-69042110

[Skybird]

Reports have started to drip in that Russia has started a greater offensive on Charkiv. Ukraine claims to have spoilt the advacne of one armoured group, but that is unconfirmed so far, and fighting is spreading throughout the sector. Ukraine is rushing its remaining reserves into the region.

[mapuc]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xFUzcEki6QI&ab_channel=CombatVeteranReacts

Markus

[Dargo]

These shaping operations north of Kharkiv are no surprise, this was known for weeks. Russian forces failed to capture the capital city of the oblast, the northern defence lines of Kharkiv are from 2022 and reinforced last couple months. As of November 2022, Russian forces only occupied a small portion of land in the Kharkiv Oblast.

[Dargo]

Russia's jamming of American weapons in Ukraine is showing the US what it needs to be ready for in a future fightRussian electronic warfare has created problems for some American-made precision weaponry in Ukraine, but Moscow is also showing its hand and telling the US what it needs solutions for to be ready for future fights. Ukraine has employed US precision weapons, such as the HIMARS-fired Guided Multiple Launch Rocket Systems and air-launched Joint Direct Attack Munitions, throughout the war, but widespread Russian electronic warfare is regularly diminishing the effectiveness of these weapons. Lt. Gen. Antonio Aguto, who's serving as the commander of Security Assistance Group-Ukraine, addressed the problem in December, saying electronic warfare directed at some of the US's "most precise capabilities" was "a challenge." Other US officials have identified these issues as well, adding that the US and Ukraine were working on solutions.

Any fixes developed to effectively counter the challenge posed by electronic warfare won't just benefit Ukraine. They're also set to help the US solve problems it has long been concerned about as it prepares for the possibility of great-power conflict. Mark Cancian, a retired Marine Corps colonel who's a senior advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, explained to Business Insider that "the widespread GPS spoofing we see in Ukraine adds urgency to solving a problem DoD has long recognized: that wartime spoofing will reduce the effectiveness of its weapons." ... https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-electronic-warfare-shows-us-needs-for-future-wars-2024-5?international=true&r=US&IR=T

[mapuc]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bRLn5cHNgQk&ab_channel=CombatVeteranReacts

Markus

[ET2SN]

Russia's jamming of American weapons in Ukraine is showing the US what it needs to be ready for in a future fightRussian electronic warfare has created problems for some American-made precision weaponry in Ukraine, but Moscow is also showing its hand and telling the US what it needs solutions for to be ready for future fights. Ukraine has employed US precision weapons, such as the HIMARS-fired Guided Multiple Launch Rocket Systems and air-launched Joint Direct Attack Munitions, throughout the war, but widespread Russian electronic warfare is regularly diminishing the effectiveness of these weapons. Lt. Gen. Antonio Aguto, who's serving as the commander of Security Assistance Group-Ukraine, addressed the problem in December, saying electronic warfare directed at some of the US's "most precise capabilities" was "a challenge." Other US officials have identified these issues as well, adding that the US and Ukraine were working on solutions.

Any fixes developed to effectively counter the challenge posed by electronic warfare won't just benefit Ukraine. They're also set to help the US solve problems it has long been concerned about as it prepares for the possibility of great-power conflict. Mark Cancian, a retired Marine Corps colonel who's a senior advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, explained to Business Insider that "the widespread GPS spoofing we see in Ukraine adds urgency to solving a problem DoD has long recognized: that wartime spoofing will reduce the effectiveness of its weapons." ... https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-electronic-warfare-shows-us-needs-for-future-wars-2024-5?international=true&r=US&IR=T

Honestly, why do you think we're sending so much stuff to Ukraine? :O:


"Proof testing". :Kaleun_Wink:

[Skybird]

Its still not clear whether the Russian attacks northeast of Charkiv are serious preparations of an offensive and thus: already part of such an offensive, or just a destraction to bind Ukrainian troops and push them off balance elsewhere. "Experts" are divided and some follow this the others follow that theory. The situation on the battlefield seems to be confused and "in flux".

[mapuc]

It could in a way be both except the offensive would not come from north but from east or from north and east.

Just seen 10 minutes of a 60 minutes video on YT title
"In the end Russia will lose"

Did watch it fully just lots of expert saying this and that to a guy in the video.

Edit
Here's the video
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AYvyNr4ZMSs&t=930s&ab_channel=SiliconCurtain
End edit

Markus

[Dargo]

It could in a way be both except the offensive would not come from north but from east or from north and east.

Just seen 10 minutes of a 60 minutes video on YT title
"In the end Russia will lose"

Did watch it fully just lots of expert saying this and that to a guy in the video.

MarkusRussian attacks northeast of Kharkiv will not be the only one we will see in the coming weeks we will see this kinda attacks from several positions on the front from Avdiivka to Kharkiv and maybe other places. Russia test the defence of Ukraine, this does not mean they already have picked a place or places where they start the main offensive.

[mapuc]

Russian attacks northeast of Kharkiv will not be the only one we will see in the coming weeks we will see this kinda attacks from several positions on the front from Avdiivka to Kharkiv and maybe other places. Russia test the defence of Ukraine, this does not mean they already have picked a place or places where they start the main offensive.

Well this I do know about strategy-You make small attacks here and there on your enemy to find where he's weak.

As defender it is important to lure the enemy to where they have the weak spot.

Markus

[mapuc]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9em4iEsohoM&ab_channel=Military%26History

Edit
Latest update on Russians second front
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y24gGC-I8Y4&ab_channel=CombatVeteranReacts
End edit

Markus

[Skybird]

A Ukrainian field commander in Kharkiv was stunned: “There was no first line of defence. We saw it. The Russians just walked in. They just walked in, without any mined fields” he says.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c72p0xx410xo

[Rockstar]

A Ukrainian field commander in Kharkiv was stunned: “There was no first line of defence. We saw it. The Russians just walked in. They just walked in, without any mined fields” he says.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c72p0xx410xo

As another Ukrainian puts it

… Our enemies didn't sneak through they marched through a welcoming void crafted by the very hands sworn to protect us. Two years! Two years that should have seen our lands encased in iron and fire, not left bleeding under the predator’s watchful eyes.


… Every corrupt official, every contractor who lined their pockets with funds meant for our walls, every liar who sold us safety—may their fate be graver than that of our foes. Buried alive, let them feel the weight of the earth they sold out. This betrayal, this slaughter of our valiant brothers and sisters, demands a reckoning, fierce and final. For the blood of the fallen, for the honor they were denied, we stand and demand justice. These traitors will pay.

[mapuc]

I'm watching a livestream on YT and the host said something interesting.

To take Kharkiv they would need hundred of thousand soldiers and thus is their 50.000+ men not enough.

Markus

[mapuc]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ppD8Jzxrw3I&ab_channel=CombatVeteranReacts

Markus

[Dargo]

There are messages that more or less said Ukraine had contained the Russian advance in Kharkiv, that there were a number of positions that Russia would still be captured over the next hours/days, but that the situation was under control. Some of the positions Ukraine has lost in Kharkiv should not have been lost, or at least shouldn’t have been lost how they were lost. And also, equipment they lost also shouldn’t have happened. There was a degree of incompetence involved, which should not be seen at this stage of the war. Mistakes that simply cannot be made. Some mistakes by commanders of the area, and some made by the higher organization of the military.

We may be looking at the preliminary phase, Russia forcing the Ukrainian army to make a choice of where to send their reinforcements. When the real offensive begins, Russia wants to have secured as many Ukrainian reserves as possible. Compared to the beginning of the war, Russian troops are less well-trained. Recently, Russia seems unable to mount large-scale attacks in which multiple brigades work well together.

[mapuc]

There are messages that more or less said Ukraine had contained the Russian advance in Kharkiv, that there were a number of positions that Russia would still be captured over the next hours/days, but that the situation was under control. Some of the positions Ukraine has lost in Kharkiv should not have been lost, or at least shouldn’t have been lost how they were lost. And also, equipment they lost also shouldn’t have happened. There was a degree of incompetence involved, which should not be seen at this stage of the war. Mistakes that simply cannot be made. Some mistakes by commanders of the area, and some made by the higher organization of the military.

We may be looking at the preliminary phase, Russia forcing the Ukrainian army to make a choice of where to send their reinforcements. When the real offensive begins, Russia wants to have secured as many Ukrainian reserves as possible. Compared to the beginning of the war, Russian troops are less well-trained. Recently, Russia seems unable to mount large-scale attacks in which multiple brigades work well together.

Can the first situation have something to do with corruption ?

Second part-If Russia has to take the entire Ukraine they need to change the way they fight a war.

Markus

[Dargo]

Can the first situation have something to do with corruption ?

Second part-If Russia has to take the entire Ukraine they need to change the way they fight a war.

MarkusUkrainian media reports say the commander responsible for the defence of the northeastern Kharkiv front, General Yuriy Halushkin, has been replaced by General Mykhaylo Drapatiy. And possible corruption will also cause this happens in any army. For the "if" Russia needs 3 times as many personnel with its equipment to take Ukraine for the whole Kharkiv oblast they would need over, 100000 with its equipment that does Russia not have and will not get they also have problems with recruiting personnel and their production is more refurbish/repair hardly any new equipment rolls on the plains of Ukraine.

The Russian military began 2023 with a highly disorganised force in Ukraine, comprising approximately 360,000 troops. By the beginning of the Ukrainian offensive in June 2023, this had risen to 410,000 troops and was becoming more organised. Over the summer of 2023, Russia established training regiments along the border and in the occupied territories and, following the mutiny of Wagner forces, endeavoured to standardise its units, breaking down the previous trend towards private armies. By the beginning of 2024, the Russian Operational Group of Forces in the occupied territories comprised 470,000 troops. With this army they only gained a couple of hundreds of square kilometres' terrain I do not see them gain more terrain. These coming months will be hard for Ukraine but if they can hold this is the last Russian big offensive for a very long time.

[mapuc]

I have this feeling in which Putin will, after got another 6 year, order general mobilization and perhaps he will change the way he talk about the war in Ukraine from special operation to war in Ukraine and declare war on the country.

Markus

[Dargo]

I have this feeling in which Putin will, after got another 6 year, order general mobilization and perhaps he will change the way he talk about the war in Ukraine from special operation to war in Ukraine and declare war on the country.

MarkusPutin talks this yada yada so he can stop this any time he wants without losing face, he never talked about a goal so if It's time he thinks it is over he can say we won. General mobilization would mean Putin needs to train and equip this new army if he does it like in the past it will not work in WWII Stalin could send millions and with the help of the US they could win. Putin is no Stalin how hard he tries and Russia is not the USSR it has no millions to send, and it does not have the gulag of millions in the age to fight and produce. It is short of over 5 million of labour force, how can he equip that kinda army and I doubt Moscow and St Petersburg will comply if they are drafted.

[Skybird]

https://www-n--tv-de.translate.goog/politik/Russland-hat-die-Front-um-200-Kilometer-verlaengert-article24937759.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp

The Russians are pursuing three objectives with the invasion of troops in the north of Kharkiv. The first is an attempt by the Russians to form a kind of buffer zone. This follows from the increasing number of attacks on Russian towns near the border, such as Belgorod. (...)

Secondly, Russia has extended the front line by another 200 kilometres. This puts Ukraine under pressure, as it now has to deploy its precious reserves not only in the Donbass, but now also north of Kharkiv. This is a tactic of war of attrition: The Russians are tying up the Ukrainians in additional places, making it more difficult for them to manage the entire front.

The third intention is to create a deployment zone for future attacks, a kind of staging area from which the Russians can then theoretically attack in the direction of Kharkiv.
(...)
When the first 180,000 shells arrive from the Czech Republic at the end of June, that will be enough for 30 days if 6,000 shells are fired per day. The Russians, however, fire 20,000 to 25,000 shells a day.

----------------------

It is reported since weeks that Russia assembles a new army group in Russia near the border, that is planned to consit of at least 100,000 men, of wich 60,000 seems to be ready and who have staged the attacks near Kharkiv.

[mapuc]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y6tTR71O-Jk&ab_channel=UkraineMatters

Markus

[mapuc]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oHJQHrMkDcs&ab_channel=CombatVeteranReacts

Markus

[Dargo]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jXDc3SKtUlg
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xC1g1UFqAGM

[mapuc]

Looking in the rearview mirror you could say, you predicted this outcome-Not enough troops, material and not enough weapons to open a second front and push forward to Kharkiv.

Looking in the crystal ball-You could say, you predict more troops, material and weapons is being transported to their second front-the question would be-Is it enough ?

Markus

[Dargo]

Looking in the rearview mirror you could say, you predicted this outcome-Not enough troops, material and not enough weapons to open a second front and push forward to Kharkiv.

Looking in the crystal ball-You could say, you predict more troops, material and weapons is being transported to their second front-the question would be-Is it enough ?

MarkusI did not predict, if anything is not to predict it is wars and economies you can have more of all but if they are not trained to do it, it fails same with the command they not really have shown anything I believe they can do the job see this video a Russian explain how it works there.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kKSgzG_7R2A

[mapuc]

I used the word "you" as in general. I could however have written it like this
"Looking in the rearview mirror one could say..."

Markus

[August]

I wonder if it was Shoigu who authored this latest offensive or his replacement?

[Skybird]

https://deepstatemap.live/en#6/49.438/32.053


[NZZ] A live map of the war in Ukraine receives more than a billion clicks - even the army uses it every day


Whether in Donbass or Kharkiv - the Deep State Map shows how the situation on the front is changing. Ukrainian patriots are behind the project. This is precisely why they are not only fighting false information from Moscow, but also from Kiev.


When Roman Pohorili and Ruslan Mikula first experimented with a map that depicts wars and conflicts live in 2021, they found it particularly interesting from a technical point of view. But then Russia invaded their home country: Their website DeepStateMap.live became a vital resource, for emergency services and even for the Ukrainian army. Anyone who wants to understand the situation in Donbass - or now that in Kharkiv - can hardly avoid this map. It now has well over a billion hits.


This makes the Deep State Map one of the most frequently used maps of the war in Ukraine. Pohorili and Mikula's team have created an intuitive user interface that presents the most important information almost at a glance: areas occupied by Moscow are pink or orange, liberated territories are green, contested territories are gray. If you want, you can overlay the topography and weather conditions, follow the course of the trenches or see which units are stationed where on the front line.


However, there is one restriction: the Deep State Map only shows Russian positions, not Ukrainian ones. Roman Pohorili does not want to provide the enemy with any useful information. In a Zoom interview with the NZZ, the 24-year-old admits that he is not an objective observer. "It's about our Ukraine, and we are fighting for victory." This means that he sometimes conceals ongoing operations by the Ukrainian military, even if his team knows about them.


However, there are changes every day. With a timeline function, you can follow front shifts back in time at will. Or at least almost: the first six weeks of the war were lost when the site was relaunched. It had initially worked on the basis of Google Maps, but the map was blocked - presumably because the American company got cold feet due to Russian hacker attacks and unresolved liability issues. The authors had to completely reprogram it.


However, Pohorili assures that the visible information is correct. There is no point in concealing Russian conquests and the associated shifts in the front line if this would jeopardize the evacuation of civilians, for example; after all, the Ukrainian Civil Protection is an official partner. The former lawyer is concerned with fundamental issues: "People should have no illusions. They have to face reality." Only if they understand the true situation on the front can they fight the Russians effectively.


Pohorili knows better than most in Ukraine that this situation is difficult. Over a hundred people provide information to the Deep State Map as volunteers. Many serve in the army themselves and are on the front line. The core team, whose size Pohorili does not want to name for security reasons, analyzes videos, news and images. It decides when to update the map.


According to Pohorili, images in particular can be easily checked using open source intelligence (Osint) methods. The analysts compare the location of buildings or streets with satellite images to ensure that the authors' information about the location of a video is correct.

[mapuc]

I've always consider this deep state maps to be a reliable source of information and some of the youtubers are using it.

There are those who say it is false propaganda and are not showing the realtime situation in Ukraine.

This was what a friends friend once told me on fb.

[Skybird]

Its Ukrainian critical patriots doing these maps. OF COURSE they do not show Ukrainian units.

[Skybird]

https://www-bundesheer-at.translate.goog/aktuelles/detail/von-drohnen-und-panzern-zehn-fragen-an-oberst-markus-reisner?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp



With the current production and repair rate of just under 1,000 battle tanks per year, of which 200 are new production and 800 are repairs, Russia is in a position to endure the current loss rate without restrictions for at least another two to three years. As of May 11, 2024, there are 3,005 lost Russian tanks compared to a total of 815 Ukrainian tanks. A ratio of 3.7 : 1.
The military norm requires a ratio of 4:1 in an attack against a prepared opponent. Analysts currently assume that there are around 3,000 Russian main battle tanks deployed in Ukraine. In addition, there are another 400 deployed in the area north of Kharkiv.

[Skybird]

https://www-20min-ch.translate.goog/story/oberst-markus-reisner-russland-koennte-diesen-krieg-weder-alleine-fuehren-noch-gewinnen-103103635?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp&_x_tr_hist=true


"Let me give you a concrete example to illustrate the precarious situation. The USA has supplied Ukraine with 31 Abrams main battle tanks. 31 of them. That makes no difference at all. What would make a difference would be 310 units, ten times as many. That would at least break the Russians' offensive momentum.

You must not forget: The Russians have around 3000 main battle tanks and 7000 infantry fighting vehicles in action, all of which have to be fought down. But in order to really launch an offensive with the prospect of a breakthrough, they need 3100 Abrams, i.e. a hundred times more than the Ukrainians have. But where will the equipment come from? That is the question, especially in these quantities.”(...)

“The effectiveness of some precision weapon systems from the West is now being questioned. In the case of the HIMARS multiple rocket launchers, it is assumed that up to 50 percent will be jammed and brought down by the Russians.

Even with the ground-launched small-diameter bombs, on which great hopes were placed, it had to be recognized that they have practically no effect due to Russian jamming manoeuvres. The situation is similar with the Excalibur artillery shells supplied, which can in fact be guided right into the target. At the beginning, we saw success rates of just under 70 percent for the hits. In the meantime, it is actually six percent.

Obviously, the Russians can fully deploy their jamming systems in the electromagnetic field - i.e. where the radio signals are emitted. Ukraine also works with a wide variety of jamming systems. But the quantity of systems is lacking in order to be able to manage this 1200-kilometer-long front.”

Translated with DeepL.com (free version)

----------

Western battle tank losses, confirmed: at least 5 M1 Abrams, at least 18 Leopard 2A4, at least 11 Leopard 2A6, at least 1 Challenger 2.
Their heavy weight and the intense erosion of the bottom wheels are two big problems of Western tanks in Ukraine, a terrain for which their design was never meant to be. Especially the Leopards consume wheels at a higher rate than Ukraine gets spare parts. Many must replace their lower wheels every 4-6 drives - that could mean repeated replacements within one week.
Many damaged tanks cannot get repaired due to lacking spare parts.



There is almost no confirmed data on how many Leopard 1s were lost so far. Or I did not search well.

[Skybird]

Ukraine more and more under pressure at Kharkiv.


https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/ukraine-withdraws-forces-kharkiv-russian-troops-enter-vovchansk-new-of-rcna152169


Some days ago, ten days ago or so I said I think the American aid will come too late. And recent experiences have shown that these technically "superior" high tech ammunitions so many hopes were bet on, did not live up to the expectations.



Ukraine gets pushed mroe and more towards its breaking point. The delay in aid and the lacking determination of the West must accept major guilt for this.



All that talk about political futures and solidarity is worth crap. Now at the latest this should have become obvious.



Selensky's visit to Spain and Portugal have been cancelled. Means: situation really must be very, very critical.

[mapuc]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gd-gR7BUAfk&ab_channel=CombatVeteranReacts

Markus

[mapuc]

Could this attempt on the Slovakian Prime minister Robert Fico have something to do with the war in Ukraine ?

Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico has been shot and wounded and is in a life-threatening condition.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cg6761ggxz1o

Markus

[Dargo]

I've always consider this deep state maps to be a reliable source of information and some of the youtubers are using it.

There are those who say it is false propaganda and are not showing the realtime situation in Ukraine.

This was what a friends friend once told me on fb.deep state maps is OK there is a connection with the Ukraine army but if they would falsify the map in a day they would be accused because there are so many people doing this work. I use https://map.ukrdailyupdate.com/ run by Andrew Perpetua he and his team are mostly western they create this kinda maps via sources from telegram, drone videos, from their sources in Ukraine, and he buys satellite images he differs from deep state maps but in general both are correct. https://www.youtube.com/@andrewperpetua/streams The Ukraine army does not over declare that mutch his claims if they say we destroyed 5... and you see the video or satellite images there are 5... destroyed there are a lot of people checking this for the soldiers KIA good luck checking that :), but there are people that count the artillery shell explosions.

[Dargo]

Could this attempt on the Slovakian Prime minister Robert Fico have something to do with the war in Ukraine ?



https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cg6761ggxz1o

MarkusIn a short video circulating on social media, the suspect in the attack on Robert Fico, 71-year-old writer Juraj C., says he decided to carry out his act a month ago. As his motive, C. states that he “disagrees with the government's policy.”

[Dargo]

About time!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WeEJ87dbkoc

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TV50TDtugto

[mapuc]

Haven't watched the videos so I ask you instead

Is there a limit to how far inside Russia Ukraine may hit targets with Westen ammos ?

Markus

[Dargo]

Haven't watched the videos so I ask you instead

Is there a limit to how far inside Russia Ukraine may hit targets with Westen ammos ?

MarkusNot spoken about the range but let say Belgorod that would be enough to disturb supply to the front.

[Dargo]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AFDE7R3z6zU

[mapuc]

Not spoken about the range but let say Belgorod that would be enough to disturb supply to the front.

Thank you Dargo-It just that when I saw the headlines in your videos I was picturing Ukraine hitting weapon production beyond the Ural mountains.

Markus

[Dargo]

Thank you Dargo-It just that when I saw the headlines in your videos I was picturing Ukraine hitting weapon production beyond the Ural mountains.

MarkusOh they can only they can with their own long range drones :D

[mapuc]

Oh they can only they can with their own long range drones :D

I know-However though longer they fly into enemy land though higher is the chance they get shot down. I was thinking on very long range Western Missiles like the Tomahawk(I know Ukraine does not have these)
These missiles are harder to hit.

Markus

[Dargo]

I know-However though longer they fly into enemy land though higher is the chance they get shot down. I was thinking on very long range Western Missiles like the Tomahawk(I know Ukraine does not have these)
These missiles are harder to hit.

MarkusThose refineries do not get anti-air they have to figure it out for themselves no support from Putin and a lot of anti-air is in Ukraine what is left is in the St Petersburg and Moscow regions.

[mapuc]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J_BBd3Fh1m0&ab_channel=UkraineMatters

Markus

[Catfish]

I wonder if any russian ever questioned who gave Putin the right to destroy Ukraine, and then Russia.
The russian-orthodox church would have to explain some things, but I do not think it will survive either.

[mapuc]

I wonder if any russian ever questioned who gave Putin the right to destroy Ukraine, and then Russia.
The russian-orthodox church would have to explain some things, but I do not think it will survive either.

If they do it is done very deep inside them-It can be very dangerous to speak openly against this special operation

He wanted to un-nazificate Ukraine-He forgot his own country though.

Markus

[ET2SN]

Putin wanted a "win" and a buffer zone. :doh:

A buffer zone against what, ah, I don't know. Free trade and tourism?

[Rockstar]

About time!


Not true, U.S. policy regarding the use of the weapons we supply hasn’t changed. If Ukraine wants to strike across the border into Russia they need to build their own systems to do it.

It leaves Putin without excuses for his eventual failure. And gives Ukraine well deserved & ultimate bragging’ rights IF they succeed.

Like I said before we’ve had our Crispus Atticus, Boston Massacre, Bunker Hill, & Battle of Saratoga. So quit crying like a bunch of socialists expecting everything to be done by somebody else , get to work and mobilize ya biatches. You’ve had damn near thirty years to figure it out so put your lattes & ‘buy me a coffee’ scams to rest and let’s see some fookin’ results.

https://youtu.be/ctWEqhW8KHw?si=mZxo0526SqZOIucd

[mapuc]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f1SKNmwxAPE&ab_channel=CombatVeteranReacts

Markus

[Dargo]

A Russian soldier from the 138th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade, Andrei Yurgens, was captured in Vovchansk. He said that his brigade, together with the 25th Motor Rifle Brigade, had the task of capturing Vovchansk "in two days." In the area of Vovchansk, the Ukrainian defense has been significantly strengthened, strikes against the enemy are becoming more effective. The Russians are unable to drive out our troops from positions in and around the city. The Russian offensive in the northern part of Kharkiv region has been significantly slowed down. The Russian attack groups have suffered losses but have not yet been defeated, heavy fighting continues. https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1791158382046367960

Russians are most active on Pokrovsk front – Ukraine's General StaffThe highest activity of Russian troops is currently observed on the Pokrovsk front (Donetsk Oblast). It is reported that the Russian forces continue to increase their efforts on the Pokrovsk front. The number of combat clashes there increased to 30. The Russians, supported by aircraft, were operating near the settlement of Umanske. In general, the Russians continue offensive actions on the contact line, while Ukrainian soldiers hold the line of defence and respond firmly to Russian actions. The number of combat classes increased to 79 over the course of the day. Ukrainian troops continue to resist the Russian invasion in Kharkiv Oblast, where the occupiers have attacked Ukrainian positions five times since the beginning of the day. In particular, the Russians are trying to assault Ukrainian troops near the town of Vovchansk. Supported by aircraft, they are attacking in the area of Lyptsi, Vesele and Udy.

As a result of the fighting in this area, the Rusians lost 35 soldiers killed and injured, and 14 pieces of equipment were destroyed. Another Russian attack took place on the Kupiansk front. As of now, a total of four combat clashes have taken place there.
On the Lyman front, the Russians slightly increased the intensity of hostilities. The number of attacks increased to five, one of which is still ongoing.
On the Kramatorsk front, the Russian forces tried to break through our defences 13 times and conducted an airstrike near Chasiv Yar.
On the Kurakhove front, Russian troops attempted eight assault actions. The Defence Forces successfully repelled all attacks near Kostiantynivka, Novomykhailivka and Krasnohorivka.
On the Vremivka front, the Russians made eight attempts to dislodge Ukrainian units from their positions near Staromaiorske, Mykilske and Urozhaine. The Russians received a decent rebuff and retreated.
On the Prydniprovske front, the Russians continue to try to dislodge Ukrainian defenders of the settlement of Krynky. Since the beginning of the day, the Russians have attacked our positions six times, suffered losses and retreated. The data is being clarified.
The situation on other fronts has not changed significantly. Quote: "Ukrainian soldiers continue to hold back the enemy along the entire contact line and inflict heavy losses on them." https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/05/16/7456108/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vKw6NtYOmbk

[Dargo]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8ENuemSfJ2Y

[mapuc]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=83xBUcH89jY&ab_channel=CombatVeteranReacts

Markus

[mapuc]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nwf9NpwXGlI&ab_channel=CombatVeteranReacts

Markus

[Dargo]

Zelensky: 'Our partners fear that Russia will lose this war'President Volodymyr Zelensky believes that Ukraine's partners "are afraid of Russia losing the war" and would like Kyiv "to win in such a way that Russia does not lose," Zelensky said in a meeting with journalists attended by the Kyiv Independent. Kyiv's allies "fear" Russia's loss in the war against Ukraine because it would involve "unpredictable geopolitics," according to Zelensky. "I don't think it works that way. For Ukraine to win, we need to be given everything with which one can win," he said.

His statement came on May 16 amid Russia's large-scale offensive in Kharkiv Oblast and ongoing heavy battles further east. In a week, Russian troops managed to advance as far as 10 kilometers in the northern part of Kharkiv Oblast, according to Zelensky. Washington has not changed its negative position on potential Ukrainian strikes with U.S.-supplied weapons on Russian territory even after Russia had launched its offensive in Kharkiv Oblast, the Pentagon said on May 16.

Zelensky commented on this statement during the meeting, saying that "there should be no bans because this is not about a Ukrainian offensive using Western weapons on Russian territory. This is about defense." In an interview with AFP on May 17, the Ukrainian president said that the Kharkiv Oblast offensive could be the first of several waves, and Russian forces may try for the regional capital of Kharkiv. https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-our-partners-fear-that-russia-will-lose-this-war/

[mapuc]

In fact none of us, not even the expert knows what will happen now and in the future if Russia:
Lose
or
Win

Of course the expert gives their advice on what could happen if Russia win or lose the war.

Markus

[JU_88]

Russia will not be leaving Ukraine with their tail between their legs, I believe they will go all out over it if needed. There is too much at stake - having Nato/EU on that boarder is not an option, (Its a vast flat open border Russia knows it cannot defend from a hypothetical full scale land invasion by the Western allies) from the Kremlins perspective, it IS the end of the world for them to lose Ukraine outright.

[Skybird]

By now and by the poor Western performance I must conclude that Russia will mimimum keep what it already has bitten off, and destroy much of what it cannot control.

Ukraine is done.

Chodorkowski has recently said something similiar at a Western conference, he said he expects Russia to take Charkiv by the end of the year, Odessa in the middle of 2025, and in 2026 Ukraine will be so destroyed and weakend that it cannot maintain classical military operations anymore and will need to wage a pure partisan war only.

My expectation leads into a comparable direction of events. Truth is simply that the West has given up Ukraine and probably never had the intention to do what would be needed to help Ukraine win. A Ukrainian victory was never wanted because it would revolutionize the balance of power in the EU once Ukraine then would join EU, at the costs of Paris and Berlin.

Babble Olaf until today has stubbornly refused to ever use the phrases "Ukrainian victory" and "Russian defeat". He was pressed, urged and pushed to speak it out, and stubbornly refuses it until today. Since over two years. That speaks volumes. He also does not want russian logistics being hurt in Russia.

A year ago or so, last year, Selenskji was asked what he really thought of Bubble Olaf. He answered with a dry smile "Ask me again after the war."

Its always too little, always too late what Ukraine gets. The defeat of Ukraine is already decided in many Western capitals. They want it to lose - to have one problem less and instead to play with their precious EU dreamdancing policies again.


Until today Western Europe has fialed to really switch to wear production. Until today Europe and the US refuse to realistically assess China'S role in this war, and think Chian would want to be a force of peace in this.



Its hopeless. The West, I mean. Head stuck inside the lower rear , so deep like the neck is long.

[mapuc]

I fear you could be right, however I hope you are wrong.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RolARzQefmk&ab_channel=CombatVeteranReacts

Markus

[JU_88]

Makes Sense that even if the west know is a losing battle and are happy to sacrifice Ukraine - I can imagine there would still be much vested interest in keeping it going as long a as possible,



1) Geopolitics, its good for Nato that Russia is weakened by expending its resources in the fight.

2) MID and arms manufacturers will be doing great out of it as usual.

3) Media distraction from alot of the other dirt going on they dont want people noticing or talking about, like the living standard in the west dropping through the floor and the multiple causes behind it.

[Skybird]

Cheap, effective and almost no defence against.



https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cz5drkr8l1ko


Different to the high tech toys the West sends in small quantities. Russian jamming has knocked them all out to very severe degrees. Already ATACMS, Excalibur, Himars, Storm Shadow - they get jammed out. And cost fortunes.

Has nobody noticed the lack of big stories about ATACMS strikes? I dont mean the pompous propaganda drivel at youtube, but mainstream news that celebrated the Abrams and Leopards, the Himars, the Ceasars.... They took place, no doubt, but it seems they fail to impress Russian capabilties. And the efficiency rates of smart ammo getting through to its targets has dropped significantly. It seems ATACMS are just the latest high flying expectation that more or less crash-landed.


The only advantages Russia has are the stupidity of the West, and its own masses. Pinpricks lead not far.

[em2nought]

Russia will not be leaving Ukraine with their tail between their legs, I believe they will go all out over it if needed. There is too much at stake - having Nato/EU on that boarder is not an option, (Its a vast flat open border Russia knows it cannot defend from a hypothetical full scale land invasion by the Western allies) from the Kremlins perspective, it IS the end of the world for them to lose Ukraine outright.

I believe they're more concerned about who is on the other side of that border post western civilization which doesn't appear to be all that far away. :hmmm:

[mapuc]

Didn't Ukraine get these anti-jammer missiles in their latest weapon package ?

Seem to recall it.

Markus

[Dargo]

Didn't Ukraine get these anti-jammer missiles in their latest weapon package ?

Seem to recall it.

MarkusNot only in last package also before, and they developed their own also Ukraine has them and uses them for a long time. Missiles do not use only one system to reach the target, some have several and are mostly programmed to hit targets, not all methods can be jammed.

[mapuc]

Not only in last package also before, and they developed their own also Ukraine has them and uses them for a long time.

If you know-How good are these missiles ?

I could imagine Ukraine use some of these anti-jammer missiles before the use of ordinary ground-to-ground missiles against some target

Markus

[Dargo]

If you know-How good are these missiles ?

MarkusIf they hit the target they are, and I see reports of Ukraine hitting several targets lately, so take that jamming with a grain of salt. Both sides can jam, but also both sides have the capability to hit targets at log range. Every action has its reaction, what one side develop, the other side will solve to counter. Ukraine military complex was always important, a lot of space missiles were made/invented in Ukraine like other technology Ukraine can do allot like they did in the USSR time.

[mapuc]

If they hit the target they are, and I see reports of Ukraine hitting several targets lately, so take that jamming with a grain of salt. Both sides can jam, but also both sides have the capability to hit targets at log range. Every action has its reaction, what one side develop, the other side will solve to counter.

Which I think what they exactly have done the Ukrainians solved the problem with Russian jammers.

Silence from our newspaper. Well in the beginning it was interesting to tell the people about it, but people lose interest, this must be why we aren't hearing about it in our news.

I think it is so.

Markus

[Skybird]

In my post before, I forgot to insert the link I was about. Its about glide bombs. They are a game changer for Russia.


https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cz5drkr8l1ko

[Dargo]

Which I think what they exactly have done the Ukrainians solved the problem with Russian jammers.

Silence from our newspaper. Well in the beginning it was interesting to tell the people about it, but people lose interest, this must be why we aren't hearing about it in our news.

I think it is so.

MarkusThe jamming is done via electronic anti-satellite (ASAT) but missiles have systems where the maps are onboard so that they always can hit target also the western ones and there are several ways to locate your position, certainly in old missiles where they did not had satellites to use. With the drones, we see Ukraine hit more targets than with artillery, even when one tank is full of several jammers.

[Skybird]

On jamming, the Rujs sians imroved their jamming drmataically, Russia was already before the war the world's most competent in this, second to none. So it was no surprise that they learned to jam Excalibur ammuntions, Himars missiles, Storm Shadows and the likes. It sabout dropping the number of missile sgettign thoergh the dfences, and if Himars had a success rating of more than 90% and then gets pushed down to 50% or less, and half of the expensive Excalibur projectiles (self-guiding artillery rounds) get jammed off their tragets, then this make sitsel ffelt in rddcued combat results - and enormous costs, because these things are, different to gliding dumb bombs, expensive. Very. And they take long time to get produced. Tu7rning a dumb bomb into a glide boms, is something you do in half an afternoon, and it costs you just a few thousand coins instead of hundreds of thousand, or millions.

Thats a problem i have with Western militaries since years. Their enormous cost intensity at the price of dramatically reduced quantitative availability. That is not sustainable in a big war, worse: an attrition war. And we see it currently. In a war of attrition, not quality counts, but quantity. And only quantity. Quantity before everything else. Russia understands this. The West obviously not. This and is inherent brutalization and inhumanness is what makes russia's army, in a certain perspective, the possibly best army in the world. It enforces results - NO MATTER WHAT, where Western armies would fall back due to moral and ethical concerns. War is war, and war is mean and dirty. The Russians are very mean and very dirty, shy away from nothing, even towards their own fighters. No mercy for nobody. Only the cause counts. Thats utmost brutal and evil. But effective especially when you are superior in numbers and masses.

[Dargo]

In my post before, I forgot to insert the link I was about. Its about glide bombs. They are a game changer for Russia.


https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cz5drkr8l1koThe problem with glide bombs is that Ukraine need planes to scare the Russian jet further away from the fronts.

[mapuc]

In my post before, I forgot to insert the link I was about. Its about glide bombs. They are a game changer for Russia.


https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cz5drkr8l1ko

These dumb bombs like the FAB500 is great to use as they can't be jammed. You can try to shoot them down as the glide through the air.

It is here Ukraines has high hopes for the F16 will make a different, where their task will be shooting down the Russian fighter jet who carry these Glide bombs

Markus

[Dargo]

On jamming, the Rujs sians imroved their jamming drmataically, Russia was already before the war the world's most competent in this, second to none. So it was no surprise that they learned to jam Excalibur ammuntions, Himars missiles, Storm Shadows and the likes. It sabout dropping the number of missile sgettign thoergh the dfences, and if Himars had a success rating of more than 90% and then gets pushed down to 50% or less, and half of the expensive Excalibur projectiles (self-guiding artillery rounds) get jammed off their tragets, then this make sitsel ffelt in rddcued combat results - and enormous costs, because these things are, different to gliding dumb bombs, expensive. Very. And they take long time to get produced. Tu7rning a dumb bomb into a glide boms, is something you do in half an afternoon, and it costs you just a few thousand coins instead of hundreds of thousand, or millions.



Thats a problem i have with Wetsenr militaries since years. Their enormous cost intensity at the price of dramatically reduced quantitative availability. That is not sustainable in a big war, worsE: an attrition war. And we see it currently. In a war of attrition, not quality counts, but quantity. And only quantity. Quantity before everything else. Russia understands this. The West obviously not.The western armies has never fought against anything like what Russia is, those were not big armies with the equpment of Russia even when they did have Russian equpment it was not of the quality Russia has to defend Moscow.

[Dargo]

Ukraine Has Enough Artillery Shells for the First Time in Two Years of WarUkrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced that, for the first time since the full-scale invasion, Ukraine has secured a sufficient supply of artillery shells. “For the first time in years of war, not a single brigade is complaining about a lack of artillery shells. This has been the case for the past two months. However, there is still a lot of work to be done. The Czech initiative will continue. We are negotiating funding with all partners,” Zelenskyy stated during a press conference on May 16. https://united24media.com/latest-news/zelenskyy-ukraine-has-enough-artillery-shells-for-the-first-time-in-two-years-of-war-381

Weekend Update 81: Much of the portrayed Russian success is based on predictionWell its been quite a week. It has seen some of the most doom-laden reporting of the entire war since February 2022 (particularly in the New York Times) with prognostications that Russia is on the verge of a great success. However on the battlefield things are, as usual, hardly moving in the key front of the Donbas. Moreover, in the strategic air campaign, Ukraine seems actually to be showing great initiative and having success—with another large attack last night. This might be the week when there was the largest disconnect between what I see happening and how its being reported. This is not to say that Ukraine is succeeding and Russia failing—its just that the narrative of Russian success remains based on what they might accomplish, not what we have seen to this time.

Its best to start with the Russian offensive at Kharkiv, which has been described in the area of greatest Russian success and Ukrainian failure. The New York Times described it in a feature story as a “stunning” invasion which punched threw Ukrainian lines overrunning large areas. That campaign is now almost 10 days old and is entering a familiar pattern. After a modest amount of forward movement at start—advances have slowed significantly and losses are mounting up. ... https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/weekend-update-81-much-of-the-portrayed By Phillips P. OBrien Professor of Strategic Studies.

[mapuc]

Shells-In the news here yesterday it was told that due to lack of ammos like shells Ukraine is only using 1000 to 1500 per day, while Russia use 10.000-15.000 per day.

I guess this must have changed to the better now for the Ukrainians.

More on this jamming thing.

What do we know exactly !?

Is there a different in amount of rockets/missiles being used against a target compared from the start of the war and now ?

Markus

[Dargo]

Shells-In the news here yesterday it was told that due to lack of ammos like shells Ukraine is only using 1000 to 1500 per day, while Russia use 10.000-15.000 per day.

I guess this must have changed to the better now for the Ukrainians.

More on this jamming thing.

What do we know exactly !?

Is there a different in amount of rockets/missiles being used against a target compared from the start of the war and now ?

MarkusWe do not know anything exactly, that's the fog of war those rockets/missiles attack takes time to plan it takes a lot of time to get intel on targets and it defence maybe there are lesser attacks (or claimed). But still see attacks on Crimea, on munition hubs and in the Black Sea the Ukraine drone attacks are becoming larger (+80 per attack). How more you hit, how lesser the targets become it is not that Russia has air, radar systems or ships enough in stock or production to replace.

[mapuc]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3sPY1GE0L2Q&ab_channel=CombatVeteranReacts

Markus

[mapuc]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PGKgAkFfyyE&ab_channel=CombatVeteranReacts

Markus

[Rockstar]

Ukraine is clearly aware that the war will end in negotiations, - NSDC Secretary Lytvynenko

14:02 20.05.2024 16 651156

https://m.censor.net/ua/news/3490355/viyina_zakinchytsya_peregovoramy_zayava_sekretarya _rnbo_lytvynenka

Ukraine needs a truce not for 2 years, but a sustainable peace for decades.

This was stated in an address to the participants of the Baltic Sea Region Forum: "NATO 2024 and Arctic Europe" NSDC Secretary Oleksandr Lytvynenko, reportsCensor.NET.

"Ukraine is clearly aware that the war will end in negotiations. And so the formula of peace of President Zelenskyy was prepared and promoted. Our position is very simple and convinced, it will be supported by the participants of the Peace Summit in Switzerland in June 2024. This is a real diplomatic track that has every chance to contribute to achieving a just peace," the NSDC Secretary said.

According to Lytvynenko, Ukraine needs not a truce for 2 years, but a lasting peace for decades that would make the development of the country possible.

"And this is a matter of security guarantees. Security agreements implementing last year's G7 statement are without the slightest doubt an important step. And we highly appreciate the efforts of President A. Stubb and the entire Finnish people, who know more than anyone the critical importance of security for Russia's neighbors. However, Ukraine needs guarantees, and the Finnish example clearly demonstrates that today there are only some real guarantees in Europe - this is NATO membership. That is why we hope to receive an invitation to the Alliance at this year's Washington NATO Summit," he added.

Negotiations with the Russian Federation

Earlier, the media reported that Western countries were preparing to convince Zelenskyy to agree to negotiations with the Russian Federation to end the war.

At the same time, the Russian dictator said that the Russian Federation was ready to participate in peace negotiations, but it was not invited to a conference in Switzerland.

comments: We are waiting for "betrayal" from rear and armored "patriots" - who are ready to fight to the last. (To the last - this is until the turn for mobilization comes to them... )

[mapuc]

This produce some questions

1. How far and with how much are NATO interested in helping Ukraine ?
2. How much must Ukraine give for a concrete peace with Russia ?
3. How much must Russia give for a concrete peace with Ukraine ?

Markus

[Skybird]

Security guarantees brought them where they now are.

[mapuc]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VYto1aCqkLc&ab_channel=TheInfographicsShow

Markus

[Rockstar]

This produce some questions

1. How far and with how much are NATO interested in helping Ukraine ?
2. How much must Ukraine give for a concrete peace with Russia ?
3. How much must Russia give for a concrete peace with Ukraine ?

Markus

NATO is somewhat like a defense department and operates primarily in response to attacks on member nations. Otherwise NATO doesn’t do anything unless the elected officials of member governments give them the green light.

Somewhat perplexed that Russia is not invited. But it will be interesting to hear the proposals. I guess we’ll just have to wait and see Russia’s reaction in June.

[Rockstar]

Security guarantees brought them where they now are.

Those so-called security guarantees were nothing more than signatory nations UK, US, Russia agreeing not to attack or invade Ukraine. Said nothing about promising arms and ammo.

[mapuc]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hIFcWg7WmIQ&ab_channel=CombatVeteranReacts

Markus

[mapuc]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DjElkGyF3r0&ab_channel=CombatVeteranReacts

Markus

[August]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NqtB4-WNJkg

[mapuc]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Q9WBEDNVdU&ab_channel=CombatVeteranReacts

Markus

[Rockstar]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DjElkGyF3r0&ab_channel=CombatVeteranReacts

Markus

And the source of the Russian propaganda machine is? Looks like British tabloid news. :har:

[Dargo]

Explosives found near NATO pipeline in GermanyConstruction workers in Germany have found explosives in the ground while working close to a NATO pipeline. So reports the Süddeutsche Zeitung (https://www.sueddeutsche.de/politik/sabotage-russland-nato-pipeline-geheimdienst-1.7253897?reduced=true). It is not clear who placed those explosives there, but intelligence sources have long indicated that Russia is willing to sabotage such infrastructure of Ukraine's allies. The explosives were found in Bellheim, in the state of Rhineland-Palatinate, between Mainz and Stuttgart. Underneath that place runs a pipeline through which kerosene flows. That pipeline is part of a network of NATO pipelines used to fuel air bases. The pipelines in the Netherlands, which include Schiphol Airport, are also part of this NATO network.

According to Süddeutsche Zeitung, construction workers made the discovery last November in the forest near Bellheim. While renovating a high-voltage pylon, they came across several hundred grams of explosives with detonators and two hand grenades. The items were buried half a meter underground, a few hundred meters away from the pipeline, neatly wrapped in plastic wrap. The newspaper writes that the find alerted the German security service. Explosives have been found before, hidden in the ground by the left-wing extremist terrorist movement Rote Armee Fraktion (RAF) in the last century.

But the find in Bellheim late last year cannot possibly be from the years when the RAF was active, according to security officials. It is estimated that the stored explosives in Bellheim were placed there only 12 to 18 months ago. By whom is not clear. The German prosecutor's office tells the newspaper that investigations have not led to a suspect. However, security services have long pointed out that Russia does not shy away from attacks with such explosives and other acts of sabotage. Incidents around facilities that can be attributed to Germany's so-called critical infrastructure are on the rise.

Intelligence increasingly suspects a link to Russia in these incidents because of the war in Ukraine. Germany is an important ally of Ukraine by supplying weapons and tanks. The risk of Russia wanting to strike back is increasing, security officials warn. “We must assume that in the coming weeks and months Moscow will use the full range of hybrid warfare against us, including acts of sabotage,” a German intelligence officer told the Süddeutsche Zeitung. The war in Ukraine “has long since arrived here.”

Just recently, two suspected Russian spies were arrested in Bavaria for allegedly spying on a NATO military training ground where Ukrainian soldiers were being trained. Dutch security services have also been warning about Russia for some time. The Netherlands is an attractive target for cyberattacks, for example, because it is home to many international organizations, such as the International Criminal Court in The Hague. https://nos.nl/artikel/2521633-explosieven-gevonden-vlak-bij-navo-pijpleiding-in-duitsland

[mapuc]

< Don't know why but the word Reichsbürger popped up in my head when reading your post.

Markus

[mapuc]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PzvEHKSwUOI&ab_channel=CombatVeteranReacts

Markus

[Rockstar]

China selling arms should be no surprise. The five permanent members of the UN Security Council (China, France, Russia, U.K., U.S. are the largest arms dealers in the world. It’s what we do.

[mapuc]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MTuCdv-iD3o&ab_channel=DenysDavydov

Markus

[mapuc]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HCFKghxxjmE&ab_channel=CombatVeteranReacts

Markus