Here we go again-Ukraine once again pt2

[Jimbuna]

^ Then perhaps NATO have a stark choice to make and pretty soon.

[Skybird]

^ Then perhaps NATO have a stark choice to make and pretty soon.
Pah, just wait for Trump Messiah and all will be good in just one day.

[tonschk]

MALI DECLARES THEY WON`T ALLOW NATO TO DESTROY NIGER AS THEY DID WITH LIBYA

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VzcA9F08OaQ

[Jimbuna]

Pah, just wait for Trump Messiah and all will be good in just one day.

Then the band played "Believe it if you like" :)

[Rockstar]

In the past 4 days at least 27 drafting offices were set on fire in Russia and temporarily occupied Crimea.

Just yesterday there were about 20 attempts to set drafting offices on fire. Even retirees were involved, the oldest is 84 years old.

Yuriy Shvytkin, deputy chairman of the Russian parliament defense committee, believes it is quite possiible that ordinary people started setting fire to military enlistment offices because of emotional shock after the Russian parliament and the Federation Council approved the law on raising draft age to 30 years with the lower limit of 18 years.

So, the government realizes that it is in conflict with the people, and mass arson of military enlistment offices is an attempt of the latter to demonstrate their discontent. All that the Russian authorities and Reisner can do is to intensify repression and propaganda.

[Skybird]

So, the government realizes that it is in conflict with the people, and mass arson of military enlistment offices is an attempt of the latter to demonstrate their discontent. All that the Russian authorities and Reisner can do is to intensify repression and propaganda.

Reisner? What has he to do with the inner-Russian confrontation? He explains and assesses the military situation and I think what he says usually makes an awesome lot of sense, is sober, rational and free from wishful thinking. So much rationality is just not welcomed by many, as you seem to demonstrate. Our media prefer the narration of Ukraine being victorious. But truth is its in deep trouble. And if I would have gotten one euro for every time they said that Pution is close to detahj and that the regime is close to collapse and that the civil society is close to revolt and chase the kremlin inhabitants away and that the Russians run out of ammo and that they soon will have no more missiles to fire on cities and that there soon will be fuel shortages and whatever, I would have enough money to royally dine in a four star restaurant, three course menu with all tricks and treats.

He is quite qualified to comment, not only is he commander of Vienna's guard, and was or still is chief of some training centre of theirs, but he is also a PhD historian who has published several books on WW2, and one about future robotic and drone warfare, published 2018.

[Catfish]

^ Then perhaps NATO have a stark choice to make and pretty soon.
It should, but the political will of the US is absent and Europe is not prepared.
German politician Stegner just denied Ukraine the delivery of the Taurus cruise missile for "not escalating the situation" :haha:
I would like to escalate in a way that Stegner visits the russian front and gets accidentally hit.

[Skybird]

It should, but the political will of the US is absent and Europe is not prepared.
German politician Stegner just denied Kuraine the delivery of the Taurus cruise missile for "not escalating the situation" :haha:

Now somebody must clean all that dove sh1t again.

[Jimbuna]

It should, but the political will of the US is absent and Europe is not prepared.
German politician Stegner just denied Ukraine the delivery of the Taurus cruise missile for "not escalating the situation" :haha:
I would like to escalate in a way that Stegner visits the russian front and gets accidentally hit.

Yes, it's certainly not looking all that good for Ukraine right now.

[Skybird]

60 days into the offensive - now is this what we hope and wait for?

If true it means, according to various media reports, that they would have hacked a wide gap into the Russian defence line and split it into two. Some reports claim they already secured the flanks of the spearhead.



UKRAINIAN ADVANCE!! In #Robotyne (https://twitter.com/hashtag/Robotyne?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw) update . Ukrainian forces broke Russian lines and advanced 5 km along a wide font. The are now outside Verbove and on the Eastern side of Robotyne. Source https://t.co/MqtTm48I8M pic.twitter.com/0LtvpSTlEZ (https://t.co/0LtvpSTlEZ)
— Albir 24 ������������ (@albir2024) August 1, 2023 (https://twitter.com/albir2024/status/1686296718822809600?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw)



Tokmak is 35 km away from Verbove. If they want Melitopol, they must take or bypass Tokmak.

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7sTgfiEr68Q

[Skybird]

Someone lost his rubber ducky while bathing yesterday. :D


https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66402046


Nothing decisive, but nice. Thats a Ropucha landing ship, no doubt.

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KsGz-veZNgg

[Jimbuna]

The Orcs shall not triumph as long as brave people stand up against their aggression.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IGa-EfK9MKg

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p1zSUvgGfQ8

Russian or should I say Putin justice at it's finest.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_twE9JvxI7w

[Dargo]

Someone lost his rubber ducky while bathing yesterday. :D


https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66402046


Nothing decisive, but nice. Thats a Ropucha landing ship, no doubt.This Black Sea Fleet wants to enforce the "Embargo" the USV threat is interrupting Russian plans to board grain ships that is decisive it must now hide further away to avoid attacks.

[mapuc]

Can't remember exact sayings.

But this author wrote something about that warfare was always behind technical breakthrough on the battlefield.

I must say he's right. Lets begin with WWI-In the beginning they arranged the soldiers like they did in the American civil war. Quickly they learned to adapt the new things on the battlefield.

Which makes one wonder-How will future war be fought like on the battlefield-Will the warfare be outdated by new technology on the battlefield ?

Markus

[Skybird]

Ukraine, I think it is the head of their secret service, warns of a false flag operation by which Russia wants to brign Belarus into the war. He says Russia plans to strike a Belarus facility and then blame Ukraine for the attack.

[Dargo]

Ukraine, I think it is the head of their secret service, warns of a false flag operation by which Russia wants to brign Belarus into the war. He says Russia plans to strike a Belarus facility and then blame Ukraine for the attack.Same rumors that Belarus would invade Ukraine a couple of times in the past.

[Catfish]

Someone lost his rubber ducky while bathing yesterday. :D
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66402046
Nothing decisive, but nice. Thats a Ropucha landing ship, no doubt.
Yes.

https://youtu.be/5f0BaeTeHOA

Russian tv said that "Russia" (Putin's minions) had shot down all aerial drones, so at least not a direct lie.

[Skybird]

Same rumors that Belarus would invade Ukraine a couple of times in the past.
That Belarus would needlessly attack Ukraine, was uncredible. That russia stages a false flag attack to provoke Belarus is credible. Putin did massacre his own people and kids in schools to justify intervention in Chechnya.

[Dargo]

That Belarus would needlessly attack Ukraine, was uncredible. That russia stages a false flag attack to provoke Belarus is credible. Putin did massacre his own people and kids in schools to justify intervention in Chechnya.Do not think Lukashenko is stupid, he knows he would lose with his army and that would mean his own end.

[Skybird]

Russia never gives free gifts. Russian troops are in the country. Nukes. Now Wagners. The officer corps must be under Russian pressure, or gets bribed.


If not with Lukashenko, then without him, is Putlers reasoning.

[mapuc]

We can only make qualified guesses based on what we know so far when it comes to the relationship between Russia and Belarus.

Why hasn't Belarus joined the Russian 3 days crusade in Ukraine ?

Why did Lukashenko allow nukes to be installed in his country and being controlled by Russia ?

A.s.o.

Markus

[Catfish]

^ because he had no choice or saying in this.
The second he disagrees officially with Putin he's toast.

You have to imagine russian troops started invading Ukraine (trying to take Kyiv and kill Zelensky) from Belarus.

[mapuc]

^ because he had no choice or saying in this.
The second he disagrees officially with Putin he's toast.

You have to imagine russian troops started invading Ukraine (trying to take Kyiv and kill Zelensky) from Belarus.

No doubt Lukashenko is Putlers little puppy/marionet.

I on the other hand are more interested in what Wagner in Belarus is up to will they do something not so clever ?

Markus

[Catfish]

As Skybird wrote I also think that they are trying a false flag attack, some border incident or some assassination in Belarus they will blame on Poland or any of the baltic states. There were the helicopters violating polish airspace and now Putin is staging a military drill in the Baltic sea are.

Still I wonder why Ras-Putin is still trying to justify any of his deeds, I take it his own people do not believe all this bullsh!t anymore. If Putin believes his own narrative he is not the brightest candle on the cake.

[August]

As Skybird wrote I also think that they are trying a false flag attack, some border incident or some assassination in Belarus they will blame on Poland or any of the baltic states. There were the helicopters violating polish airspace and now Putin is staging a military drill in the Baltic sea are.

Still I wonder why Ras-Putin is still trying to justify any of his deeds, I take it his own people do not believe all this bullsh!t anymore. If Putin believes his own narrative he is not the brightest candle on the cake.




Must be a Russian tradition.

[mapuc]

now Putin is staging a military drill in the Baltic sea are.

Still I wonder why Ras-Putin is still trying to justify any of his deeds, I take it his own people do not believe all this bullsh!t anymore. If Putin believes his own narrative he is not the brightest candle on the cake.

My first thought when I heard about this drill.. Is Putler going to attack Sweden ?
Now I think the exercise is to show Poland and the Baltic that he is prepared to use force if they try something.
Could also be a preparation for what's coming-I.e a false flag operation in Belarus.

Markus

[mapuc]

This status was 5 min old when I copied it

There was a massive explosion and a large flash of light visible at the Crimean Bridge

If this was a Ukrainian Strike and it was successful then it would be the 3rd time that Ukraine hit and damaged the Crimean Bridge

It’s nighttime, more information will be released soon


https://twitter.com/ukraine_map/status/1687579400433262592

Markus

[Dargo]

The entire northern Black Sea is no longer safe for the Russian navy.
https://i.postimg.cc/wTtxZbkz/bsea.jpg

[Dargo]

My first thought when I heard about this drill.. Is Putler going to attack Sweden ?
Now I think the exercise is to show Poland and the Baltic that he is prepared to use force if they try something.
Could also be a preparation for what's coming-I.e a false flag operation in Belarus.

MarkusPutin will not attack Sweden, Poland and the Baltic its army can not even win the war in Ukraine all western countries can easily defend against Russian army it does not have the reserves to do anything for a decade.

[Skybird]

Putin will not attack Sweden, Poland and the Baltic its army can not even win the war in Ukraine all western countries can easily defend against Russian army it does not have the reserves to do anything for a decade.
No Western army accept the US is capable currently to run a longer lasting war of the intensity we see in Ukraine. We lack the ammo stores. In case of Germany that issue is prominent, but Germany is not the only one. Even France and Britain cannot go that way anymore. Russia fires in two or three days what Europe produces in a full month.

This morning I red that Europe gets all its powder for the production of artillery rounds and ammo from - China. :/\\: We have lost our last marbles already a long time ago. See, that happens when you let managers run the world. Money rules. Brain dies. Live short-sighted and die early.

[Dargo]

No Western army accept the US is capable currently to run a longer lasting war of the intensity we see in Ukraine. We lack the ammo stores. In case of Germany that issue is prominent, but Germany is not the only one. Even France and Britain cannot go that way anymore. Russia fires in two or three days what Europe produces in a full month.

This morning I red that Europe gets all its powder for the production of artillery rounds and ammo from - China. :/\\: We have lost our last marbles already a long time ago. See, that happens when you let managers run the world. Money rules. Brain dies. Live short-sighted and die early.Western armies does not need to fight on two fronts Russian army will not win in Ukraine it can not get its war production in order to supply the Ukraine war so a second front against armies that not even started a war production is plainly stupid you overestimate the capability of Russia. That system is so corrupt it will never produce what they need for a world war it is not the soviet economy/system that could pull this off but not on their own the help from the US was a main factor for Stalin to reach Berlin. Putin is neither a Stalin he is weak his system can not count/trust on everybody Putin still does not dare to call for general mobilization is a sign he is not the only one in power. For China, it does not want a war in Europe it needs us like we need them the trade coin has two sides and their economy does not go well so that is a main factor that they do not want an world war it would mean a further decline for their economy.

"Like past Chinese leaders, Xi respects strength but knows how to exploit weakness, and Russia will remain useful to him as he continues to challenge the United States. Mr. Putin can still make major strategic choices for his country, as long as they coincide with China’s interests. But will China stand by him if those interests diverge? Or if Russian elites run out of patience with his poor decisions and try to push him out? Or if the global costs of standing with him prove too onerous for China?" https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/23/opinion/china-russia-us-cold-war.html

[Dargo]

This status was 5 min old when I copied it



https://twitter.com/ukraine_map/status/1687579400433262592

MarkusRussian channels report three naval drones attacked the Crimea bridge (official reports claim drones were destroyed), but another drone reported hitting an oil tanker approx 30 miles from the bridge...which may have been the real target? Indeed, the Sig oil tanker that Russian channels report was hit, was in the right place near the bridge and appears to have shuttled oil between Crimea and Syria, worked for Russian armed forces and was thus a legitimate military target.

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1687582833701695488

[tonschk]

AFRICA REACTS TO HOW THE TERRORIST NATO FORCEFULLY STOPPED AFRICA LEADERS FROM SAVING GHADDAFI

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4XUn11DZqJo

[Skybird]

BBC's check of the state of things. The tide is slowy turning against Ukraine. This is due to the lack of determination of the West to inflict a crushing defeat on the Russians at the beginning of the war by unlimited arms deliveries (firepower AND range), excused by stupid verbiage about not provoking the Russians, and nuclear war, and loss of face, and so on... . A quick defeat of Russia would have been a prerequisite, and thus the only chance for a Ukrainian victory, and for this corresponding firepower would have been necessary, which the West, however, refused. Now the Russians have Ukraine where they wanted it: in a war of attrition, and there the long-term trump cards, military as well as political and psychological, lie with Russia.

We, the West, have screwed up. Once again. And the Ukrainians are paying for our stupidity - or, in other words, "boiling the frog" - with their blood.

I said it so often, either you wage war or you don't. Either you get fully engaged, or not engaged at all. Either you put your heart into it, or you must not bother to even raise from bed. Of the essdence owudl have been to avoid a ppositional war of attritiopn AT ALL COSTS. An early all-in decision had to be enforced AT ALL COST. Now we are in the long game, and I dont see us winning it. Public psychology of the masses also works strogner and stronger against success.


I mark Scholz with major responsibility of this, how much I dispise this bláse, resonsibility-evading incompetent king of Brownies. Also Biden, this bloiling of the frig idea form beginning on did not ai m at securing Ukrianian victory, but to maximise damages for Russia (which in itself I am okay with), not caring for what this means for Ukraine. I am quite sure that if we would have acted with swift, undivided detmerination and went in, Russia would pulled back. But opportunistic politicians, and swift, undivided determination! Rather you make a cactus talk.



This Western behavior violates everything I learned about fighting and attitude in martial arts. It violates just EVERYTHING.


I see Ukraine's chances now at under 20:80, slowly, creepingly dropping further. But hey, maybe the Russians start making mistakes. I just dont believe it.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66383377


Ultimately, time is not on Ukraine's side.

By autumn, the rainy season will have arrived, turning unpaved roads into mud and making further advances difficult, if not impossible.

By the time that ends, in the spring, the US presidential election cycle will be under way.

If Ukraine cannot show any decisive gains on the battlefield by then, it is far from certain that US and Nato support will continue at their current high levels.

For Kyiv, the clock is ticking. Meanwhile Russia simply has to hang on to the territory it has illegally seized.

Yep. Actually, it has to do pretty much nothing, just hang on to it.

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MafNv7S49hA

[mapuc]

Who of these two(Dargo and Skybird) are most correct ? Well only times will tell.

Markus

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DTJpnxbr7Mk

[mapuc]

It was only hours ago when I mentioned that if Ukraine would target Russian shipping lanes that it would severely compromise Russian trade and supply lines and suddenly it happens.

From a strategic point of view the Russian Sig oil tanker is the most ideal target. An attack against this Russian tanker is covered by the rules of engagement since oil is used by the military. It will also deter many other oil tankers from going or leaving Russian ports, citing security issues and eventually compromise Russia’s most valuable money flow: oil trade.

Instead of giving in to Russian blackmail regarding the grain deal, Ukraine does the exact right decision in not to give in but targeting the Russian oil trade instead.

This is exactly how to respond to Russian threats and blackmail. Do not negotiate, do not allow yourself getting into a defensive position but strike back, even double as hard as necessary to make sure that it delivers the intended pain for Russia and then see what happens. You can be absolutely certain that Moscow will understand this message and will offer a “good-will” gesture.


https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1687640372703641600

Markus

[Reece]

Moscow will understand this message and will offer a “good-will” gesture.
Yeh like that's going to happen!!! :doh:

[Jimbuna]

Yeh like that's going to happen!!! :doh:

Oh ye of little faith :)

[Jimbuna]

I'm not sure how this will work without the Orcs in attendance but it might still be worth a try.

China on Friday said it would send a senior official to Saudi Arabia for weekend talks on finding a peaceful settlement to the war in Ukraine, a forum that excludes Russia, in a diplomatic coup for Kyiv, the West and the Saudi hosts.


Ukrainian and Western diplomats hope the meeting in Jeddah of national security advisers and other senior officials from some 40 countries will agree on key principles for a future peace settlement to end Russia's war in Ukraine.

Chinese Special Envoy for Eurasian Affairs Li Hui will visit Jeddah for the talks, China's foreign ministry said on Friday.

"China is willing to work with the international community to continue to play a constructive role in promoting a political solution to the crisis in Ukraine," Wang Wenbin, a spokesperson at the Chinese ministry, said in a statement.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/china-to-attend-ukraine-peace-talks-in-saudi-arabia/ar-AA1eP58q?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=649311f3e1204c0d91b9e37492d31067&ei=12

[Skybird]

In eastern Ukraine, Russian troops have taken control of the village of Novoselivske near the city of Kupyansk in the Luhansk region, according to their own information. This is reported by the Guardian with reference to the news agencies Reuters and AFP. Earlier on Friday, Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maljar said that the number of Russian attacks in the east had increased. "Heavy fighting is taking place," Maljar said. She added that Russia's goal there was "to regain the territories lost last fall."

[Frankfurter Rundschau]

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KDa885blya8

[Exocet25fr]

Ukrainian F-16 training impeded by language barrier

Only eight out of 32 pilots had sufficient English to take part in the instruction program, the outlet reported!:hmmm:

https://www.rt.com/news/580864-f16-training-ukraine-language-barrier/

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=caliuJ0RWyA

[Exocet25fr]

Moscow issues update on estimated Ukrainian casualties during counteroffensive

Ukraine sustained losses of more than 43,000 troops during June and July, as it continued its attempted counteroffensive against Russian positions, the Russian Defense Ministry has estimated.

The casualty rate was mirrored by the destruction of a large number of Ukrainian weapons, according to the summary, which was released on Friday.

Over 4,900 pieces of heavy weaponry were destroyed over the same period of time, 25 German-made Leopard main battle tanks, seven French-made AMX-10 RC ‘wheeled tanks’ and 21 US-made Bradley infantry fighting vehicles, the report states.

The Ukrainian losses include 747 artillery guns and mortars, including dozens that it got from the US, Poland, France and Germany, the ministry added. The updates are part of regular briefings by Moscow on the frontline situation.

https://www.rt.com/russia/580823-ukraine-counter-offensive-casualties/

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yNdDzXMoYug

[mapuc]

Moscow issues update on estimated Ukrainian casualties during counteroffensive

Ukraine sustained losses of more than 43,000 troops during June and July, as it continued its attempted counteroffensive against Russian positions, the Russian Defense Ministry has estimated.

The casualty rate was mirrored by the destruction of a large number of Ukrainian weapons, according to the summary, which was released on Friday.

Over 4,900 pieces of heavy weaponry were destroyed over the same period of time, 25 German-made Leopard main battle tanks, seven French-made AMX-10 RC ‘wheeled tanks’ and 21 US-made Bradley infantry fighting vehicles, the report states.

The Ukrainian losses include 747 artillery guns and mortars, including dozens that it got from the US, Poland, France and Germany, the ministry added. The updates are part of regular briefings by Moscow on the frontline situation.

https://www.rt.com/russia/580823-ukraine-counter-offensive-casualties/

rt a pro-Russian media. If you had used a more independent media as ISW I would have believed you.
When it comes to pro-Russian media it's the other way around. It's Russia who have lost 43.000 men

Markus

[Jimbuna]

Precisely :yep:

[Jimbuna]

Aparliamentary aide from the far-Right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party worked on a clandestine plan to use Russian money to delay the delivery of tanks to Ukraine, it has been claimed.

Vladimir Sergienko, a naturalised German citizen who was born in Ukraine, travelled to Moscow on at least two occasions to allegedly meet a handler and discuss plans to use legal tricks to delay German military support to Ukraine, Der Spiegel reported on Friday, citing leaked emails and text messages between the pair.

Mr Sergienko, 52, works as a translator for an AfD MP and has access to Germany’s parliament, the Bundestag, and is said to have excellent connections inside the Moscow political elite.

While it is unclear who exactly he was meeting in Moscow, Western intelligence agencies are said to suspect that his contact is a handler for Russia’s foreign spy agency, the FSB.

Mr Sergienko, speaking to the Insider, a Russian news outlet that partnered with Der Spiegel on the investigation, dismissed the story as a “blooming fantasy”.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/aide-to-german-mp-worked-with-russia-to-delay-tanks-for-ukraine-report-claims/ar-AA1ePQLX?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=736e940b601b44e4ac20ee71e4c6e928&ei=12

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fkdNPQhBW9Y

[Skybird]

The AfD certainly is the strongest ally of Putin in Germany, even before Sara Wagenknecht from the SED. But let's not forget holy mother Angela who paved the war for Russia to attack.

Excursion:
I called her the worst political event in Europe since 1933 and the 12 subsequent dark years, and here is a CDU man who uses similar vocabulary to describe the disaster she was - and regrets his former role in her political mayhem. Without Merkels disastrous decisions, Ukraine probably would not have gotten attacked.
Use a translator tool on this, the man really talks "tachless".

https://www.nzz.ch/international/cdu-politiker-arnold-vaatz-merkel-mitverantwortlich-fuer-ukraine-krieg-ld.1750103

[Dargo]

The AfD certainly is the strongest ally of Putin in Germany, even before Sara Wagenknecht from the SED. But let's not forget holy mother Angela who paved the war for Russia to attack.

Excursion:
I called her the worst political event in Europe since 1933 and the 12 subsequent dark years, and here is a CDU man who uses similar vocabulary to describe the disaster she was - and regrets his former role in her political mayhem. Without Merkels disastrous decisions, Ukraine probably would not have gotten attacked.
Use a translator tool on this, the man really talks "tachless".

https://www.nzz.ch/international/cdu-politiker-arnold-vaatz-merkel-mitverantwortlich-fuer-ukraine-krieg-ld.1750103Think every country in Europe has this kinda parties mostly far right that are on Putin pay check follow the money.

[Catfish]

I am not really astonished about the german right wing AfD or french Marine LePen to more or less openly support Russia and its dictatorship, after all it is what they want and stand for.

What I really don't get is how just of all "the left" is so keen on supporting right wing dictatorships. I mean Russia was never "communist" by definition but a stalinist dictatorship, and at least after 1989 this should have been become obvious for everyone. Again after 2004.
How can anyone refer to the putinistas as being left, communist or democratic? Here this is up to guys like exocet and tonschk.

Seems the original worldwide accepted definitions and meanings are being intentionally blurred and made meaningless. Lots of effort to destroy worldwide accepted behaviour, and they are successful.

[Exocet25fr]

Bla...bla...bla...:O:

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FoW_L_266EA

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qMqR7QSIqSE

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p5U6P7CflTE

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ab7mg-HRj68

[mapuc]

Hmm is Ukraine strong enough to fight a two front war ?

Belarus may be a weak opponent, nevertheless Ukraine has to send troops north to fight the Belarusian and Russians.

Markus

[Skybird]

The shelling of bridges in the Crimea and the attacks on Russian ships cannot hide the fact that the Ukrainian offensive is stuck. Already, Kiev has had to send second-wave troops, which should have been deployed only after a frontal breakthrough, to the front to even hold it. Most of the attack brigades are already in action, many have already suffered heavy losses. And there is no real sign of an actual breakthrough where the Russians' first line of defense has finally been reached. I think the Ukrainians have got stuck.

It is also becoming apparent that last year the doctrinal orientation of the Urkain army, its ability to implement NATO doctrines, was probably overestimated, or that those troops and officers who actually commanded it are no longer in service due to retirement or death.

The course of the offensive so far has been disappointing, and I fear that we are at the turning point of the war, where the hitherto impressively united front of the West providing support will begin to dissolve, as the psychological willingness to help wanes as a result of this disappointment, and political opportunism will cause the actors in the individual countries to distance themselves. Next year, moreover, this unspeakably stupid election circus show will begin again in the U.S. One may expect that this will also lead to a slow ebbing of American military aid, because Biden simply cannot push it through anymore, and Trump does not want it at all.

Things do not go well for Ukraine.

Meanwhile, russia mulls the recruiting of at least 200,000 (possibly more) new recruits to fill the trenches. More than this, filling the trenches, it actually must not do, although they absolutely have learned from their mistakes and have become better and now have put up formidable, highly effective defence work. The West, on the other hand, has made serious mistakes in preparing the attack brigades obviously not adequately: no air power, no air defence worth the name. How could one have expected them to conduct combined arms warfare if one does not give them two most essential components for that...? America underestimated it and assumed one could vary the play instead of just setting up maximum brute force, and Germany refuses to step out of the shadow behind the American shoulders. I score the Germans with an extra sharte of guilt for havign done their poart to secure the time for Russia it needed to prepare these defences.

I think chances now are that the frog will not get slowly boiled to death as Washington intended, but will jump out of the pot in time - and then turns the whole table into a wet mess. - What did my master who trained me for years in martial arts and sword fighting alway told me? "Always go for the straight kill. No fooling around. No ceremonies. No hesitation and no remorse." Hehe, he could have been ol' Musashi himself...

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/national-security-daily/2023/08/01/no-breakthrough-yet-in-ukraines-counteroffensive-00109205

https://www.nzz.ch/international/ukraine-krieg-kiews-offensive-an-der-suedfront-steckt-fest-ld.1749811?_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_sl=auto

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2opwpuzJ4jM

[tonschk]

Ukrainian Soldiers ADMIT MASSIVE LOSSES In Counteroffensive

On Cam: Russian Tank Blows Up ENTIRE Column Of Ukrainian Armoured Vehicles In Zaporizhzhia

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tPdnCP54WBc
https://www.hostpic.org/images/2308071524360278.png (https://www.hostpic.org/view.php?filename=2308071524360278.png)

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=URK-o0n5OwQ

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ck_dbejjSjI

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wRtYyjvYTWk

[mapuc]

I think chances now are that the frog will not get slowly boiled to death as Washington intended, but will jump out of the pot in time - and then turns the whole table into a wet mess. - What did my master who trained me for years in martial arts and sword fighting alway told me? "Always go for the straight kill. No fooling around. No ceremonies. No hesitation and no remorse." Hehe, he could have been ol' Musashi himself...

I learned it otherwise-Your opponent KNOWS you are going for his throat or heart and two other areas. Instead go for...(If I remember the name for these points) One of them is under the armpits left and right and two are placed on inside the area where the body and legs are connected. Cut those and he will bleed a lot and will sooner or later become weak due to lack of blood.

And this is what Ukrainian is doing hitting these points(Bridges, depot a.s.o)
Letting Russia bleed fast and slowly to its weakness.

Markus

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ahNkBiB1Q7g

[mapuc]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8VJ9iZ1MG4c&ab_channel=CombatVeteranReacts

Markus

[Skybird]

^ So he is not satisfied with Ukrainian leadership, and I am not satisfied with the outcomes either. Think this time we somewhat agree...

[mapuc]

^ So he is not satisfied with Ukrainian leadership, and I am not satisfied with the outcomes either. Think this time we somewhat agree...

There are those who support Ukraine, not the government though.

You know more than I do but for once I hope you're wrong and Ukraine will have success in the end.

I do not dare to think what would happen to the People in Ukraine if they lose the war.

Not to forget, what would happen to Poland, Romania and other eastern Country who has border up to Ukraine or Russia.

Markus

[Skybird]

I hope you're wrong and Ukraine will have success in the end.

So do I! :03:

[Skybird]

Colonel Reisner stated in a German format that the attack on the bridges in northeastern Crimea showed that Ukraine did not have suitable, necessary weapons for such attacks. These two attacks had been carried out with SCALP/Storm Shadow, but these are bunker busters, which could be seen from the fact that the damage to at least one bridges was minor: a clearly defined rather small hole in the ground that could be quickly patched. These bigger, longer bridges would have to be destroyed by tearing down the piers, but Ukraine has no suitable ordnance for such attacks over land. It is to be expected that at least one of these two bridges will be quickly put back into operation. Only shorter, smaller bridges can be put down by hitting them with artillery or a single bomb.

It is about time that these new American glide bombs are finally delivered. The Russians already use weapons like these, so they do not need to move their air platforms within range of Ukrainian air defenses. The Russian versions are not the most precise, though, I hope and expect the American models work better.

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=to_mlKoqCkg

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pHCa_9IGZss

[Skybird]

Click on "Ich unterstützte bereits".

https://www-tichyseinblick-de.translate.goog/meinungen/nord-stream-kanzleramt-bnd/?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp (https://www-tichyseinblick-de.translate.goog/meinungen/nord-stream-kanzleramt-bnd/?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp)

According to reports from Business Insider, the German Chancellery has launched separate internal investigations into leaks of secrets, including evidence pointing to Ukraine as the perpetrator of the Nord Stream 2 attack. In an unusual move, officials involved in the case have had to sign additional non-disclosure agreements. Scholz seems very nervous that the public will learn that it may have been Ukraine that blew up the pipelines with the knowledge of Poland and the United States. That would be tantamount to an act of war against Germany, forcing the German government to stop its support for Ukraine. As I wrote months ago.

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=twT-P_8dm6I

[Catfish]

[...]
According to reports from Business Insider, the German Chancellery has launched separate internal investigations into leaks of secrets, including evidence pointing to Ukraine as the perpetrator of the Nord Stream 2 attack. In an unusual move, officials involved in the case have had to sign additional non-disclosure agreements. Scholz seems very nervous that the public will learn that it may have been Ukraine that blew up the pipelines with the knowledge of Poland and the United States. That would be tantamount to an act of war against Germany, forcing the German government to stop its support for Ukraine. As I wrote months ago.
What would be different?
Scholz already acts as if it was Ukraine, or where is the "Zeitenwende"?
If it was Russia it would be a declaration of war. But there was almost no reaction from Germany.
Not highly probable but it could be Ukraine.
Or it could have been the US, Biden had almost announced it.

[mapuc]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qvFX9gPdFZw&ab_channel=CombatVeteranReacts

Markus

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zThTPM6lfXA

[mapuc]

Putler in trouble the video says.

Is it Russia who has done this ?

Who would benefit from this ?

Is it only Russia who conduct false flag operations ?

Markus

[Jimbuna]

Spin a coin.

[Skybird]

What would be different?
Scholz already acts as if it was Ukraine, or where is the "Zeitenwende"?
He knew he wa slying about it while he held that Zeitenwende speech last year's february, four days after the Russian assault began. He knew he was telling lies while the words dripped out of his mouth in the Bundestag. He knew his poarty would never follow his demands. He knew the Greens would never accept it. He knew that the nmmoney was not there, and will never be here. He knew it. He lied from beginning on. And all world fell for him.


Only because the sun of politics is standign so very low over the horizon this meaningless small man-thing even casts a shadow. In better light conditions you would not even notice him. :down:

[mapuc]

Ukrainian forces have launched a surprise assault near Kozachi Laheri, south of the Dnipro River and east of Kherson city. The operation most likely started 2 days ago, but OPSEC prevented reporting of it for good reason.

Multiple pro-Russian sources express their "concern" of the situation, since a bridgehead has been established. Some Russian sources even claim of a strike as deep as 800m and the first line of Russian defence broken.

It will be interesting to see how this will play out, but even if it is only a small Ukrainian strike force then it will already be useful when it compels Russian troops to redeploy back to Kherson and away from the Zaporizhzhia frontlines

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1688850072275173376

Markus

[Catfish]

The thing is when you defend, you have to be aware and be able reacting on the whole front, anywhere.
When you attack you only need one spearhead ..

[mapuc]

The thing is when you defend, you have to be aware and be able reacting on the whole front, anywhere.
When you attack you only need one spearhead ..

The Russians has moved a lot of troops to the north.
They did not expect Ukraine would attack in the Kherson region.
Well they have a little beachhead.

Markus

[Skybird]

Wish them better luck than the last two times media reported a breakthrough and a beachhead - since these reports not much more news from these places. Ukraine absolutely desperately needs a breakthrough to be able to push line at least so far as that their artillery can lay down fire on Russian railway supply lines. If they cannot acchieve even this, not to mention to break through to the coast, then their offensive really is toast. They must get into positions to interrupt Russian supply lines, else it all was in vein. AUTUMN IS COMING.



And after that autumn? The growing danger of a years-long war of attrition with fixed frontlines that over the long race favouzrs Russia, becasue it is Ukrainain cities and economy and ifnratsructrre gettinbg destrioey every week and monbth, not russian. Ukriane jmust get into a position where it can enforce mobile warfare again, there it has the advanatge. Too bad that regarding the terrain for that, it is the East they miust focus on - not the south. If they gain territory in the East, they win little. Decisive for them is the south. Succeding just in the East means they must make sacrifices for gains that do not really offer them compensation for these losses they cannot afford.



--------


Back then when Prigozhin revolted, you may recall I speculated that this all move maybe is just a trojan horse by Putin to bring them into Belarus (and into a position against Lukashenko). It seems that Wagners now by the thousands cause much problems in Belarus, chase girls and women, intimidate the civil population, commit cirmnnal deeds, street crime and robberies, and now started manouverings near the Suwalki gap, and challenge Belarussian army and military police. They become more and more a problem and a threat for Lukashenko.

[Catfish]

As long as the west is "boiling the frog" that is Ukraine, there can be no beakthrough for them. They need long range weapons to annihiliate russian support far behind the lines, before they come close.
Same with the improved russian KA 52 attacking from 25 km distance.

Still, it is impressive to see what Ukraine alone already did in the first months of the war and up to now. I have no doubt they can win if they are fast enough.

[mapuc]

As long as the west is "boiling the frog" that is Ukraine, there can be no beakthrough for them. They need long range weapons to annihiliate russian support far behind the lines, before they come close.
Same with the improved russian KA 152 attacking from 25 km distance.

Still, it is impressive to see what Ukraine alone already did in the first months of the war and up to now. I have no doubt they can win if they are fast enough.

Shouldn't the Ukrainian get these MIM-73 Hawk anti air missiles to be used at the front ? These missiles has a range of 40 km.

Markus

[Catfish]

If those weapons came from Germany, they would first have to pass the TÜV :doh:
:03:
Seriously, i think they are not yet there. But not sure.
One thing is obvious, the russians do not have air superiority over Ukraine or even near the (current) border. Which is why they use those inexact glide bombs.

[mapuc]

If those weapons came from Germany, they would first have to pass the TÜV :doh:
:03:
Seriously, i think they are not yet there. But not sure.
One thing is obvious, the russians do not have air superiority over Ukraine or even near the (current) border. Which is why they use those inexact glide bombs.

USA bought them back from South Korea and then give them to Ukraine.
This was said some month ago.

Markus

[Rockstar]

I’ve already heard this expressed by other sources several weeks ago. That the counter-offensive has for the most part stalled, mainly due to the millions of mines and trench lines that must be overcome before any real forward progress can be made.


Western allies receive increasingly ‘sobering’ updates on Ukraine’s counteroffensive: ‘This is the most difficult time of the war’

By Jim Sciutto, Chief National Security Correspondent
Updated 8:19 AM EDT, Tue August 8, 2023

https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/08/politics/ukraine-counteroffensive-us-briefings/index.html

CNN
—
Weeks into Ukraine’s highly anticipated counteroffensive, Western officials describe increasingly “sobering” assessments about Ukrainian forces’ ability to retake significant territory, four senior US and western officials briefed on the latest intelligence told CNN.

“They’re still going to see, for the next couple of weeks, if there is a chance of making some progress. But for them to really make progress that would change the balance of this conflict, I think, it’s extremely, highly unlikely,” a senior western diplomat told CNN.

“Our briefings are sobering. We’re reminded of the challenges they face,” said Rep. Mike Quigley, an Illinois Democrat who recently returned from meetings in Europe with US commanders training Ukrainian armored forces. “This is the most difficult time of the war.”

The primary challenge for Ukrainian forces is the continued difficulty of breaking through Russia’s multi-layered defensive lines in the eastern and southern parts of the country, which are marked by tens of thousands of mines and vast networks of trenches. Ukrainian forces have incurred staggering losses there, leading Ukrainian commanders to hold back some units to regroup and reduce casualties.

“Russians have a number of defensive lines and they [Ukrainian forces] haven’t really gone through the first line,” said a senior Western diplomat. “Even if they would keep on fighting for the next several weeks, if they haven’t been able to make more breakthroughs throughout these last seven, eight weeks, what is the likelihood that they will suddenly, with more depleted forces, make them? Because the conditions are so hard.”

A senior US official said the US recognizes the difficulties Ukrainian forces are facing, though retains hope for renewed progress.

“We all recognize this is going harder and slower than anyone would like – including the Ukrainians – but we still believe there’s time and space for them to be able make progress,” this official said.

Multiple officials said the approach of fall, when weather and fighting conditions are expected to worsen, gives Ukrainian forces a limited window to push forward.

In addition, Western officials say the slow progress has exposed the difficulty of transforming Ukrainian forces into combined mechanized fighting units, sometimes with as few as eight weeks of training on western-supplied tanks and other new weapons systems. The lack of progress on the ground is one reason Ukrainian forces have been striking more often inside Russian territory “to try and show Russian vulnerability,” said a senior US military official.

Ukraine’s armed forces chief, Gen. Valerii Zaluzhnyi, told US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley that Ukrainian forces are step by step creating conditions for advancing. Zaluzhnyi added that he had told Milley that Ukraine’s defenses were steadfast.

“Our soldiers are doing their best. The enemy is conducting active assault actions in a number of directions, but is not succeeding,” Zaluzhnyi told Milley, according to a read out issued by the Ukrainian government.

Talking about the situation in the south, where Ukrainian forces have struggled to gain ground, Zaluzhnyi said, “Heavy fighting continues, Ukrainian troops step by step continue to create conditions for advancing. The initiative is on our side.”

These latest assessments represent a marked change from the optimism at the start of the counteroffensive. These officials say those expectations were “unrealistic” and are now contributing to pressure on Ukraine from some in the West to begin peace negotiations, including considering the possibility of territorial concessions.

“Putin is waiting for this. He can sacrifice bodies and buy time,” Quigley said.

Some officials fear the widening gap between expectations and results will spark a “blame game” among Ukrainian officials and their western supporters, which may create divisions within the alliance which has remained largely intact nearly two years into the war.

“The problem, of course, here is the prospect of the blame game that the Ukrainians would then blame it on us,” said a senior western diplomat.

Last month at the Aspen Security Forum, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky pointed to the slow arrival of more advanced weapons systems from the West as reason for Ukrainian forces’ slow progress so far.

“We did plan to start [the counteroffensive] in spring, but we didn’t,” Zelensky said. “Because frankly, we have not enough munitions, and armaments, and not enough properly trained brigades. I mean properly trained in these weapons.”

[Rockstar]

On the flip side Moscow Times report gasoline, oil, food and drinking water has now reached official emergency levels across the Crimea!

[em2nought]

So who thinks good ol' Brandon doesn't get some kind of kickback for every US dollar flowing to Ukraine? :hmmm:

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=594yQq85Wr8

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-YrQZbU5F94

[tonschk]

MAX BLUMENTHAL ADDRESS THE TERRORIST NATO PROXY WAR ORCHESTRATED AGAINST RUSSIA VIA UKRAINE

https://www.bitchute.com/video/4gNDmEC6UVgl/

https://www.hostpic.org/images/2308091607210345.png (https://www.hostpic.org/view.php?filename=2308091607210345.png)

[Skybird]

As the change in legislation and comments by the gang in the Kremlin already indicated, Russia is about to send many more troops to Ukraine. This is according to Shoigu's opening speech at the meeting of the Russian Defence Ministry's Collegium. He said that they would discuss the 'strengthening of the troop formations of the Russian armed forces on our western borders', he said, according to the statement.


As was predicted and had to be expected.

[mapuc]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PokAdPvQ3f4&ab_channel=CombatVeteranReacts

Markus

[Skybird]

I read that sources in Russia report record sales of antidepressants. :D
(No joke, but news).

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xkbk8X5pYUU

[mapuc]

“They’re still going to see, for the next couple of weeks, if there is a chance of making some progress. But for them to really make progress that would change the balance of this conflict, I think, it’s extremely, highly unlikely,” a senior western diplomat told CNN.

“Our briefings are sobering. We’re reminded of the challenges they face,” said Rep. Mike Quigley, an Illinois Democrat who recently returned from meetings in Europe with US commanders training Ukrainian armored forces. “This is the most difficult time of the war.”

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/08/08/politics/ukraine-counteroffensive-us-briefings/index.html

Markus

[Skybird]

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/08/09/politics/ukrainian-offensive-zelensky-us-politics/index.html


A stalled offensive and a winter stalemate, for instance, would have particular ramifications in the United States since it could heighten questions over US support for the war that will be pushed into an acrimonious election year. Americans are braced for a potential clash between President Joe Biden, who revived the Western alliance and is Ukraine’s most critical outside supporter, and ex-President Donald Trump, a NATO skeptic who admires Putin and has pledged to end the war in 24 hours, likely on Putin’s terms. And even if Trump is not the GOP nominee in 2024, ebbing public support for the war could hurt Biden.

Therefore, for political, as well as strategic reasons, there is huge pressure on Ukraine’s long-awaited counteroffensive this summer to produce significant battlefield breakthroughs. But so far, the push is more of a slog than a blitzkrieg, raising the possibility that the war could last at least deep into next year. If so, the elastic equation that underpins the entire conflict – involving Ukraine’s capacity to fight, Americans’ appetite for multi-billion dollar aid packages and Putin’s tolerance for horrendous casualties – will be even more taut.
Putin just sits this out, holding Ukraine an armslength away by its throat. His breath may not last endlessly, but most likely it will last longer than Ukraine's, and that's what will decide this.

#%?!"*%ß& ...!!!

[Rockstar]

The war is coming to Russia now and yes it looks like Putin will be able to mobilize more meat shields. But I think Russia has lost a lot of it’s ability to support them. Putin might not be the first to blink, I bet his troops will before anyone else.

[fithah4]

Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant

Has lost power from main external line of 750 kV and connected to a back-up line
Supporting only 330 kV. This leading to a possible blackout if circuits overloaded.

Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty
https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-zaporizhzhya-nuclear-plant-risk-blackout/32541960.html

Reuters
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/kyiv-says-zaporizhzhia-nuclear-plant-switched-reserve-power-line-2023-08-10/

Ukrinform [ Origin of Posted News Story ]
https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-economy/3746568-znpp-loses-power-from-main-line-on-verge-of-blackout-energoatom.html

[fithah4]

So with Reactor #4 still in hot shut down state and needing power and quick cooling if no power this is my concern.

With Russia cutting off the radiation sensors off the beginning of June , have any attempts been to turn them back on?

Yahoo. [ 6/ 14 / 23 ]
https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/russia-cuts-off-radiation-sensor-154500980.html

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=04uIWH-NiEg

[Skybird]

Wish them better luck than the last two times media reported a breakthrough and a beachhead - since these reports not much more news from these places.
This latest landing at Kherson again was anything but a breakthrough operation, but a limited commando raid with the intention to make prisoners and to give the Russians food for thought and forcing them to bring back troops from the Saporishshja front to Kherson to defend it. A distraction manouver that Russia cannot ignore because three kilometers behind the village near to which the Ukrainians landed is the street that serves the Russians as their supply line. They MUST send reinforcements that then are not available elsewhere.

------------------

The Russian counteroffensive at Kupjansk is pressing, Ukraine has ordered evacuation of 37 villages in the region, and slowly falls back.


------------------

FOCUS: The Ukrainian army has changed tactics in its counteroffensive. The Russian army is to be worn down. But Ukraine can barely retake territory. "We don't know exactly how much the Russian troops have already been worn down," military expert Michael Kofman told the Tagesspiegel newspaper in an interview. So recaptures by Ukraine are still possible, "but at a slower pace. That would be the optimistic view."

On the pessimistic side, Kofman said Ukraine had deployed the second squadron of U.S.-trained brigades. "If, after two months of fighting and attrition, the dynamics on the battlefield don't change greatly in the next few weeks, you have to wonder if that's it and it stays with smaller territorial gains," Kofman said.

Kofman sees three criteria for success for the Ukrainian offensive: liberation of much of the territory, at best as far as the Sea of Azov; the impression of a defeated Russian army; and proof that Ukraine could wage war efficiently with Western-trained brigades without relying solely on attrition.

-------------

I stick to what I say sinc elong time: a war of attrition Ukriane necessarily must lose. Thats why Russia tries all it can to enforce this kind of warfare, and prevents Ukraine from conducting mobile warfare.

No breakthrough in sight anywhere. Where it was reported Ukraine had reached Russia's first defence line (usually unconfirmed reports), you hear nothing anymore.

I was pessimistic about the chances of this offensive from beginnign on and have not hidden it, but truth is it even runs worse than even I had expected. The onyl way I see left open is that they advance at elast so far that they can bring the railway along the coast intzo reahc of their artllery and so if not taking can bring down artillery of Russia's supply line there. Still, while that would immensely hurt it would not translate into a Russian defeat and withdawel in the region.

That Ukraine sees no other way anymore than to agree to a kind of warfare that Russia wants and that is immensely disadvantagous for Ukraine, tells volumes. While the ywra coul,.d ligne ron for years, I think we currently see the decisive phase of the war that predicts the final outcome.

-------------------

Rheinmetall is about to deliver 50 Leopard-1A5s, and asks Germany to allow delivery of a further 30. Germany is about to deliver two more Patriots, two engineer tanks, and some more stuff.

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_f-VXMLS2CU

[Jimbuna]

It is being reported that Poland is deploying ten thousand troops to its border with Belarus and if true I don't see Wagner challenging them.

Putin of course could be using Wagner to test the NATO resolve with such a move.

[mapuc]

Would they have a better chance against the Polish army, than they had against the Ukrainian army ?

I say no way it would be a suicide mission.

And it would give Poland an excuse to enter the war on Ukraine side.

Markus

[Jimbuna]

It's not solely about Poland but NATO as a cohesive entity....minus one or perhaps two members.

[mapuc]

I guess almost everyone think that Article 5 automatically is activated when a NATO member is attacked by another non-member of NATO.

This is not the case.

The Polish Government has to send info to NATO headquarters and tell them that they wish to activate article 5.

Then it's up to each member to decide with what and how much they can contribute with.

Markus

[Jimbuna]

Hence the reason I wrote "minus one or perhaps two members".

[mapuc]

We are inching to the final decision that Germany delivers the TAURUS missile. According to this article the German Air Force (Luftwaffe) already green-lighted the transfer.

The SPD-led Chancellery is increasingly under pressure to finally approve the delivery. The CDU/CSU opposition parties already urge since months to follow through and even some SPD members agree. But this might have also some good side effects since Berlin wants to have a joint announcement with the USA where Taurus and ATACMS are delivered together. The Biden administration responds as similar to the ATACMS request as Scholz to the TAURUS.


https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1689623755595853824

Now I'm thinking about all the stories Skybird have been telling us about Germany and it's bureaucracy.

In this case it could take month before they get these weapon type from Germany.

Markus

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QnYL298YGzQ

[Exocet25fr]

Wow, after these innumerable videos, i'm very astonished the war is not already finished with an ukrainian victory.....!? :)

[mapuc]

In this moment the Ukrainian army has the momentum on most of the battlefield.

Russia hasn't the effort to win this war. They are not good enough and their material is old.

Ukraine does not have enough material and lack manpower.

This war will go on for years to come.

I think the west will put pressure on Ukraine to accept the Russian term for a peace treaty. This will happen in a couple of years from now.

Markus

[Jimbuna]

It would probably be a whole lot longer awaiting a French victory :O:

[Rockstar]

In this moment the Ukrainian army has the momentum on most of the battlefield.

Russia hasn't the effort to win this war. They are not good enough and their material is old.

Ukraine does not have enough material and lack manpower.

This war will go on for years to come.

I think the west will put pressure on Ukraine to accept the Russian term for a peace treaty. This will happen in a couple of years from now.

Markus

I don’t know, I think it’s is more of an economic and logistics war than it is about ground battles and territory too. If Russia can’t effectively train and supply their troops, can’t rebuild or manufacture to support their military and civilian infrastructure at home or in the occupied territory. I’m thinking Russia can only go on for so long before their society and military machine completely breaks down.

[Skybird]

I don’t know, I think it’s more of an economic and logistics war than it is about ground battles and territory. If Russia can’t supply their troops, can’t rebuild or manufacture to support their military and civilian infrastructure. I’m thinking Russia can only go on for so long before their society and military machine breaks down completely.
The same Statement applies to Ukraine, and the war destroys Ukrainian infrastructure, not so much Russian. And Russia can, if it must, call millions to arms, Ukraine cannot. Finally, the essential areas of civilian and military society, Russia is autark in. They have food, ore, oil, what they must is making a Lil bit of money. Old weapons may be old, but they nevertheless make Booom.
Ukraine on the other hand cannot carry on without massive supplies from the West.

[mapuc]

I don’t know, I think it’s is more of an economic and logistics war than it is about ground battles and territory too. If Russia can’t effectively train and supply their troops, can’t rebuild or manufacture to support their military and civilian infrastructure at home or in the occupied territory. I’m thinking Russia can only go on for so long before their society and military machine completely breaks down.

In every war there's also an extra war-War on the logistic. Where you have to protect your own resources and at the same time destroy your enemies logistic and thereby his war economy.

Are the Russian quick learner ? Meaning they send coming soldiers to a 10 weeks training center before they are shipped to the front.

A majority of their reservist hasn't been using a gun for years.

Markus

[Rockstar]

The same Statement applies to Ukraine, and the war destroys Ukrainian infrastructure, not so much Russian. And Russia can, if it must, call millions to arms, Ukraine cannot. Finally, the essential areas of civilian and military society, Russia is autark in. They have food, ore, oil, what they must is making a Lil bit of money. Old weapons may be old, but they nevertheless make Booom.
Ukraine on the other hand cannot carry on without massive supplies from the West.

No doubt it applies to Ukraine as well. But Ukraine has massive economic support from the west. I don’t think Ukraine’s celebrated counter offensive was really meant to overrun Russian positions, though I’m sure they tried and would have liked too. In my opinion we keep Ukraine’s military trained and equipped to wear down the Russia military in the form of death by a thousand cuts rather than one big wack. Western sanctions are having the same effect and as we speak they are having devastating effects on the Russian economy, society and war machine. Personally, I don’t think we’ll ever see a Russian million man mobilization, they can’t support it. They’ll just end up with a million man armed mob of angry unpaid, unsupported, ill treated soldiers looking for some payback.

It’s been reported even the Russian minister of propaganda Solovyov has seen his portfolio drop 93% in value since Russia invaded Ukraine and he’s mad as hell about it too. :har:

[mapuc]

The time is on the Russian side-Someone wrote

Could be the case.

The biggest question is-Will NATO approve a Russian victory ?

I say no in the end they will force Ukraine to accept some land loses in order to get a peace treaty.

NATO troops in Ukraine !? No! Then rather give up Ukraine.

As long the Ukrainian does the by proxy fighting everything is alright

Markus

[Skybird]

Western supply will not last forever, no matter what they say. You wrote "the war now found Russia", well, next year the US election circus will find Ukraine. It could easily wreak worse havoc on Ukraine.

[mapuc]

Western supply will not last forever, no matter what they say. You wrote "the war now found Russia", well, next year the US election circus will find Ukraine. It could easily wreak worse havoc on Ukraine.

I think we all by now have seen and heard Biden's "We are with you all the way until the end"

For me it can mean a lot- As it says all the way. Could also mean until we see fit.

It's the words "until the End" who is the important point here.

Markus

[Skybird]

What Biden says he now wants, is one thing. What he still will be able to do, soon will be a different thing.

[Rockstar]

Meh I wouldn’t worry too much about losing support. As Chuck Schumer said back in 2017 “Let me tell you, you take on the intelligence community, they have six ways from Sunday at getting back at you,”

And our so-called investigative journalists who are supposed to call out government abuse and corruption just went along with it. :yeah:

[mapuc]

Just seen an issue where some Ukrainian officer ask for more modern Helicopters.

They are more robust and a lot better than our old Russian type, he said.

Was he thinking about the attack helicopters if so, how long does it take to train in flying these ?

I'm thinking on Apache and Kiowa and others.

Markus

[August]

Just seen an issue where some Ukrainian officer ask for more modern Helicopters.

They are more robust and a lot better than our old Russian type, he said.

Was he thinking about the attack helicopters if so, how long does it take to train in flying these ?

I'm thinking on Apache and Kiowa and others.

Markus


US Army flight training for non flyers is 32 weeks but with already trained helicopter pilots I think you'd be talking about a couple of weeks or so.

[Skybird]

According to media reports, the German government is considering how Germany can supply Ukraine with Taurus cruise missiles from Bundeswehr stocks in the coming months. According to the news magazine "Spiegel", talks are underway between the Ministry of Defense and the arms industry. The online portal "t-online" had also reported, with reference to SPD circles, that a decision "in the near future" was probably imminent.

According to "Spiegel", the house of Minister Boris Pistorius (SPD) had asked the Taurus manufacturer to integrate a limitation for target programming into the cruise missiles.

[Die Welt]

[Rockstar]

Just seen an issue where some Ukrainian officer ask for more modern Helicopters.

They are more robust and a lot better than our old Russian type, he said.

Was he thinking about the attack helicopters if so, how long does it take to train in flying these ?

I'm thinking on Apache and Kiowa and others.

Markus

Like the F-16’s I don’t believe the hold up is so much about what it takes to train and operate western rotary wing aircraft. I think the biggest hurdle is finding Ukrainian pilots who are not security risks but who are true Ukrainian patriots. Last thing we want to see is one of our F-16’s or helicopters skipping town for an airbase in Russia. That would be a major blow to public relations, something like that could really start people questioning our support. Let’s face it, Soviet style corruption and Russian sympathies in Ukraine is still a problem for Zelensky. Though I think he’s doing a good job weeding out undesirables he’s still got a ways to go.

[mapuc]

Like the F-16’s I don’t believe the hold up is so much about what it takes to train and operate western jets rotary wing aircraft. I think the biggest hurdle is finding Ukrainian pilots who are true Ukrainian patriots and not a security risk. Last thing we want to see is one of our F-16’s or helicopters skipping town for an airbase in Russia. Let’s face it Soviet style corruption and Russian sympathies in Ukraine is still a problem for Zelensky. Though I think he’s doing a good job weeding out undesirables he’s still got a ways to go.

I never gave that a thought I was more thinking in terms of language barrier
and advanced technical stuff unknown for the Ukrainian pilots.

Markus

[Rockstar]

I never gave that a thought I was more thinking in terms of language barrier
and advanced technical stuff unknown for the Ukrainian pilots.

Markus

I’m sure Ukrainian pilots are highly intelligent and could fly whatever we gave them. Just gotta pass that background check first before you can fly. :yep:

[mapuc]

I’m sure Ukrainian pilots are highly intelligent and could fly whatever we gave them. Just gotta pass that background check first before you can fly. :yep:

This is why they only found 32-something who can be trained in flying our
F-16s

Secondly Just heard that Ukraine have created an humanitarian corridor in the Black sea Going from some of the Ukrainian harbour to this strait in Turkey.
The merchant will be protected by the Ukrainian navy and Turkish navy(They didn't mention it, but I don't think Russia would dare to attack a civilian vessel while in Turkish water.)
(if I got it right)

[Rockstar]

This is why they only found 32-something who can be trained in flying our
F-16s

Yep, it can sometimes take up to 8 months or more for our pilots background checks to clear. Feds want to know everything about them and everyone they ever knew in life and the feds will visit each and every one of them to ask what they think of you. That takes a lot of time.

Secondly Just heard that Ukraine have created an humanitarian corridor in the Black sea Going from some of the Ukrainian harbour to this strait in Turkey.
The merchant will be protected by the Ukrainian navy and Turkish navy(They didn't mention it, but I don't think Russia would dare to attack a civilian vessel while in Turkish water.)
(if I got it right)


Not openly, but maybe by clandestine ops they would. Apparently there’s been a rash of grain elevators in Turkey, France and Ukraine catching fire.

[Skybird]

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/08/04/politics/cnn-poll-ukraine/index.html



Most Americans oppose Congress authorizing additional funding to support Ukraine in its war with Russia (https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-08-04-23/index.html), according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS (https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/23897329-cnn-ukraine-poll), as the public splits over whether the US has already done enough to assist Ukraine.
Overall, 55% say the US Congress should not authorize additional funding to support Ukraine vs. 45% who say Congress should authorize such funding. And 51% say that the US has already done enough to help Ukraine while 48% say it should do more. A poll conducted in the early days of the Russian invasion in late February 2022 found 62% who felt the US should have been doing more.
Partisan divisions have widened since that poll, too, with most Democrats and Republicans now on opposing sides of questions on the US role in Ukraine.

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HaVBBwtMh6c

[Jimbuna]

Here we have yet more evidence of the terrorist state waging war on civilians.

A civilian hotel that has been used by UN staff previously.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5e3WH5s3J8A

[mapuc]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TQXwo4vjXNo&ab_channel=CombatVeteranReacts

Markus

[Rockstar]

Another step in the right direction.

Ukraine's Security and Defence Council recommends to Commander-in-Chief who should be appointed as military enlistment officers

STANISLAV POHORILOV — FRIDAY, 11 AUGUST 2023, 14:08

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/08/11/7415184/

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy chaired a meeting of the National Security and Defence Council of Ukraine (NSDC), which considered the inspection of territorial recruitment and social support centres and gave recommendations to Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi to appoint combat officers to the positions of military enlistment officers.

Source: Press service of the Office of the President of Ukraine
Details: The heads of the State Bureau of Investigations (SBI), the Security Service of Ukraine (SSU) and the Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine, as well as the Prosecutor General, the head of the National Agency for Preventing Corruption of Ukraine (NAPC) and the head of the National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NACB) of Ukraine, have presented their reports.

It was reported that law enforcement officers found evidence of corruption, in particular during the general mobilisation campaign, when they inspected the territorial recruitment centres. These instances of corruption pose a threat to Ukraine’s national security and undermine trust in state institutions.
In connection with that, the NSDC has recommended that Valerii Zaluzhnyi, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, appoint the officers who directly participate in combat action as the heads of oblast territorial recruitment and social support centres on the recommendation of the chiefs of operational and tactical and operational and strategic groups of troops. These officers also have to be checked by the SSU first before being appointed.
The Prosecutor General’s Office, jointly with NAPC and SBI, were recommended to take additional measures to prevent corruption violations by the territorial recruitment and social support centre officials.

Ukrainska Pravda is the place where you will find the most up-to-date information about everything related to the war in Ukraine. Follow us on Twitter, support us, or become our patron!

——————


A Ukrainian girl’s insight

I would like to tell you about viyskomat, because I often encounter questions.

There were warlords in the USSR. It was an office organization that forcibly recruited soldiers to serve in the army for 2 years. In theory, there should be taught to own weapons, train in case of war. However, in practice it turned into serving the needs of generals and other seniors. The soldiers simply went to the country to the commanders and worked for them in the fields and in construction for free. In addition, such an army was full of hazing - this is when those who serve longer mocked those who served less. Forced him to do all the work, often even physically abused, beat them for fun. And later the new ones did the same thing to the new ones and it continued without end. This is what service in the army looked like.

After the collapse of the USSR, these same viyskomat remained in Ukraine, Russia, Belarus and other countries of the former USSR, where no reforms were carried out. All the same employees remained working there, the same systems.

In Ukraine, under Yushchenko's presidency, the term of service was reduced to 1 year. In Russia, service in the army in general looked epic, because the Russian-occupied Dagestanis and Chechens, who were forced to serve in the Russian army, mocked the Russian soldiers. The Russian soldiers themselves put each other on the bottle in the sexual sense of the word. You can find a lot of videos about this on the Internet.

This was not the case in Ukraine - only abuse of those who served longer than those who served shorter, although the reduction of the service period greatly reduced these events. By the way, that is why now there are cases in the Ukrainian army when commanders who served in those days allow themselves to abuse their subordinates (this is about the last few scandals).

Well, in Ukraine, such commanders are imprisoned for this, and in Russia it is the standard and it is everywhere. I think you have also seen videos of Russian commanders abusing Russian soldiers even in modern warfare.

When Russia attacked Ukraine in 2014, viyskomat and its army could not protect Ukraine. I am sure that Russia would have captured half of Ukraine if it were not for the volunteers. Patriots voluntarily and independently organized themselves into battalions "Azov", "Right Sector", "OUN" and many others. It was they who were able to stop the Russians. They were the ones who scared the Russians so much that the Russians began to create short stories about them) There were so many volunteers that many of these battalions grew into whole regiments. By the way, I have a lot of friends who have been fighting since 2014 as volunteers, who have been defending Ukraine since the very day of the full-scale invasion, and by the way, they all avoided the mobilization conducted by viyskomat. I will not repeat all the bad things they said about this Soviet organization in Ukraine.

Mobilization now goes in two ways:

1 way is voluntary. The battalion announces the recruitment of applicants and recruits applicants very quickly. They often recruit more than necessary and create additional units.

2 way - mobilization against the will. According to the law, a person is served with a summons to appear for a medical examination at viyskomat. Moreover, there is a certain procedure for serving a summons. If it is violated, the subpoena is considered illegal. With the received summons, a person must pass a medical board, which will check his state of health, and if everything is in order, the person will be mobilized and sent to the army, where they will first train, and after training - to the front.

However, in practice, everything goes a little differently. Summonses are issued by illegal means. There are many cases of abduction, when a passer-by is forced into a car and taken to the medical board, processing him as if he came voluntarily, and not mobilized.

In the military itself, a person's state of health is not checked, but they immediately write that the person is fit (we have cases of deaths due to health conditions even during the training itself). Very often they are faced with the fact of extorting a bribe. Pay money - otherwise you will be suitable. If you are rich and completely healthy - after paying money you will receive the status of unfit for service in the army.

We have a lot of scandals with these events. That is why the heads of viyskomat have estates worth several million dollars, although their profits are small. According to polls, viyskomat is recognized as the most corrupt organization in Ukraine. They surpassed even the courts and officials. Due to their constant crimes and discrimination of the Ukrainian military, because they walk around dressed in Ukrainian military uniforms, Ukrainians are now at the level of rebellion. In addition, they also conflict with the Ukrainian military: they declare Ukrainian soldiers wanted, demand to return from the front, etc.

By the way, the situation is even worse in Russia. But why should we compare ourselves to those who are even worse? By the way, that's why we used to laugh at the video of mobilization in Russia, but now we don't laugh and don't even publish it, because we have the same thing :( and to replace them with Ukrainian military personnel who were wounded.However, no one obeys this order. In order to reduce the bad attitude of Ukrainians towards this organization, it was renamed Territorial Staffing Centers (TCC) and the renaming was called a reform.

I am a Ukrainian girl who thinks strategically. My family has been fighting at the front since the first days. Of course I want them to be brought home so there are enough people to replace them. But it should be done in adequate ways. Why, when volunteer sets are announced - they recruit the required number of people without problems, but viyskomat cannot recruit the required number of people? Why do viyskomat discredit the Ukrainian army? A foreigner who helps in Ukraine and sees someone being kidnapped on the street says that he does not see the difference between Ukraine and Russia and stops helping (I witnessed such an event).

Do you really want to defeat Russia by Russian methods? Do you not understand that precisely because of such methods Russia was unable to occupy Ukraine? Could there be a Russian saboteur working in the Ukrainian government whose task is to discredit the Ukrainian army or provoke a riot during the war with such orders for viyskomat? You will go through the Ukrainian Telegram channels, read the comments and see what people really think and what the mood is in society. You have to be careful here. Why can't volunteer sets be advertised for tasks that sound so cool that even those who avoided the draft want to sign up? Connect psychology, think strategically. A motivated soldier is much more useful than an unmotivated one. And you brought to the point that now most of the soldiers promise to return from the war to restore order in viyskomat...

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EzH7xFh5GYo

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d4nnF_ZGlNo

[Skybird]

Latest unwelcomed remarks by Col. Reisner. Google Webpage Translator triggers the paywall function, unfortunately. I only post the Geman link, therefor.



https://www.cicero.de/aussenpolitik/ukraine-krieg-das-feuer-mit-benzin-loschen


Col. Markus Reisner is Commander of the Guards Battalion of the Austrian Armed Forces in Vienna. After the outbreak of the Ukraine War, the doctor of history became one of the most sought-after military analysts in German-speaking countries. Since 2017 he has been a member of the Military History Advisory Board of the Science Commission at the Austrian Federal Ministry of Defence.



What many do not understand from my point of view: We have a very serious situation and we still don't understand what this may mean, even for the next months and years. It does not help that the Russians are ridiculed, because that does not do justice to the character of the Russian soul. Of course, there may be events like October 1917, or like the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, or the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. Historians will then say later that this was completely clear. But now we don't have any indicators of that. On the contrary, we don't have any indicators that would make it more or less foreseeable. It seems to be a very consolidated situation. The "March of Justice" on Moscow was perceived as an opportunity only by us. When at noon of the said day not a single Russian military unit had changed sides and the population was also going about its daily business normally, it was clear: this was not going to be the revolution we had hoped for. Russian strategic culture is historically characterized by the fact that people rally around the tyrant in times of crisis, no matter how brutal he is. But for them, he is a guarantor of survival. This idea does not fit into our world view. That's why we reject it, shaking our heads.

[mapuc]

^ I think that is the problem we are thinking as west mentality, when we talk about the Russian mentality.

Markus

[Rockstar]

I’ll bet western planners in puzzle palace are not in the least interested in total defeat of Russia. Let the ‘ethnic’ Russians rally around their tyrant. In fact I hope they all go home and drink and dance around Putin til kingdom come.

I think the main objective is the destruction of the Russian economy, dissolution of the Russian federation, dismantling any significant influence over Armenia, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and of course Syria.

We have energy resources to exploit and pipelines to build baby. Expansion of U.S. hegemony into those areas is the goal Ukraine is just a stepping stone.

[Jimbuna]

I’ll bet western planners in puzzle palace are not in the least interested in total defeat of Russia. Let the ‘ethnic’ Russians rally around their tyrant. In fact I hope they all go home and drink and dance around Putin til kingdom come.

I think the main objective is the destruction of the Russian economy, dissolution of the Russian federation, dismantling any significant influence over Armenia, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and of course Syria.



On that we are in total agreement :yep:

[Skybird]

Well, currently Russia spreads its influence and chaos in Africa more than less. And its hard to imagine that a countra that _depending on how you count - still does business with 40-60% of the global economy, can be isolated or cornered. Black swan events are possible, but its no strategy to count with them.

We are talking about the worlds leading grain exporter and one of the leading exporter of gas and oil and ressources and preproduction goods.

It will not work to talk Russia small. Americas al, y in thiy is Europe. EUROPE. Well. Expectations are dampened.

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=In_npgo8SZQ

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OAyYoJoIgFc

[Skybird]

The Germans are delaying the delivery of military supplies whenever they can. Scholz is only concerned with the beautiful appearance - his.


https://www-welt-de.translate.goog/politik/ausland/article246721222/Unterstuetzung-fuer-Ukraine-Trotz-grosser-Versprechen-Deutschland-zoegert-weiter-bei-Waffenlieferungen.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp


This list shows what Babble-Olaf personally promised Selenskyi earlier this year during a meeting of the two - and what really got delivered until July. Black numbers: promises. Green numbers: delivered. The souce for these numbers is the government itself.



https://img.welt.de/img/politik/ausland/mobile246721216/9287930157-coriginal-w1200/DWO-IP-Waffenlieferung-ag.jpg


The German delays imo are methodically and reflect a typical Bubble-Olaf pattern.




"The implementation of these measures decided by the federal government has been initiated," the Defense Ministry's website says in this regard. WELT has regularly archived the list, which is continuously updated, and thus reconstructed the progress of these deliveries. According to it, hardly any of them have been delivered in the past two months.

The amount of Marder, Iris-T, tankers and heavy-duty semitrailers that have arrived in Kiev since mid-May is zero. Among other things, Ukraine has received only ten Leopard-1 tanks (out of 110 promised), one air surveillance radar, twelve Cheetahs (out of 18), just 850 rounds of artillery ammunition (out of 26,350), and eight ambulances. The only promises that the federal government has fulfilled 100 percent are those of delivering 11,000 food rations, three drone sensors, and five metal bridges for the Beaver bridge-laying tank.
(...)
That the German government has been slow to deliver promised weapons is galling for Kiev. Even more unfortunate, however, is that pledges for weapons are also likely to be withdrawn. For example, since the early months of the war, 5032 anti-tank handheld weapons have been listed under the heading "in preparation/implementation." However, when the lists were updated on July 12, the item disappeared without being marked as delivered. An inquiry as to why the delivery commitment was withdrawn went unanswered by the Chancellor's Office at press time.

I have a feeling that these anti tank hand helds are not delivered becadsue the Bundes"wehr" does not have them. There are serious reports from earlier this year that the Bundes"wehr" stores enough ammo for less than two days of warfare.



I say that practically most of what the Germans report to NATO planners regarding their readiness levels and fullfillment of alliance obligations, is a lie. An extra brigade in Lithuania? Extra heavy divisions in three to four years? Forget it. Its the Germans, stupid. There is not the money, and there is not the manpower.

[Jimbuna]

^ Absolutely disgraceful :nope:

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4GfzQD1kGqU

[mapuc]

^^^
Then I was somehow right.

https://www.subsim.com/radioroom/showpost.php?p=2880157&postcount=365

Markus

[Skybird]

I laughed when they wrote Prigozhin and Putler made a "deal". Putler never forgives disloyalty, and will seek revenge: Progozhin's death.

[mapuc]

For the first time in this war Ukrainian forces not only successfully crossed the Dnipro River but also the Konka River behind, establishing a permanent bridge head on the south/east side near Kozachi Laheri.

All Russian attempts to dislodge Ukrainians failed and the Russian recon unit initially investigating the Ukrainian landing was most likely destroyed.

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1690353932982431744

Markus

[Skybird]

Since the offensive began, Ukraine has retaken territory the size of the city of Frankfurt, or 0.2% of those lands the Russians occupied in June. Ukrainian gains equal around 250 sqkm.

Whether this is relevant or irrelevant may be in the eye of the beholder. The front at the beginning of the offensive was around 1200 km long.

It still is unclear whether the latest strike damaged the Kerch bridge further, or failed, as Russia claims. The only images and videos availabe so far show lots of smoke.

Almost all forces reserved for the offensive are no engaged, just one (reduced) brigade is still kept in reserve. At Robotyne the Ukrainians tried three attacks to push through to the first defence line, and they activated all forces they have on the region for that episode, But all three attacks failed, says Col. Reisner in his latest update, only one tank made it to that line, unsupported, and had to be given up there. He says the russians operate swarms of observation drones and know always, every minute, where ever single unit of the ukrainians is, also their artillery, despite the Western claim that they are low on ammo, fires 24/7 and keeps Ukrainain units in range under constant shelling. Not bad for an army of which we get told again and again that it is running out of shells. Further east of Robotyne Ukrainian forces still are 10 km away from even just the first defence line.

[Jimbuna]

I laughed when they wrote Prigozhin and Putler made a "deal". Putler never forgives disloyalty, and will seek revenge: Progozhin's death.

Precisely :yep:

[Jimbuna]

Since the offensive began, Ukraine has retaken territory the size of the city of Frankfurt, or 0.2% of those lands the Russians occupied in June. Ukrainian gains equal around 250 sqkm.

Whether this is relevant or irrelevant may be in the eye of the beholder. The front at the beginning of the offensive was around 1200 km long.

It still is unclear whether the latest strike damaged the Kerch bridge further, or failed, as Russia claims. The only images and videos availabe so far show lots of smoke.

Almost all forces reserved for the offensive are no engaged, just one (reduced) brigade is still kept in reserve. At Robotyne the Ukrainians tried three attacks to push through to the first defence line, and they activated all forces they have on the region for that episode, But all three attacks failed, says Col. Reisner in his latest update, only one tank made it to that line, unsupported, and had to be given up there. He says the russians operate swarms of observation drones and know always, every minute, where ever single unit of the ukrainians is, also their artillery, despite the Western claim that they are low on ammo, fires 24/7 and keeps Ukrainain units in range under constant shelling. Not bad for an army of which we get told again and again that it is running out of shells. Further east of Robotyne Ukrainian forces still are 10 km away from even just the first defence line.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D7HAV7pRmzo

[tonschk]

JULIUS MALEMA CRASHED NATO: WE UNDERSTAND WHY PUTIN IS FIGHTING NATO, NATO DESTROYED LIBYA FOR ONE MAN

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Npt8aEIMwbE

[Skybird]

Hehe...

https://www.nzz.ch/feuilleton/sergei-gerasimow-kriegstagebuch-aus-charkiw-teil-4259-ld.1750006?_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_sl=auto


Ukraine once had the third largest nuclear arsenal in the world, worth about $200 billion. In 1994, according to the Budapest Memorandum, we handed over the nuclear weapons to Russia in exchange for security guarantees from Russia, the US, the UK, France and China.

Unfortunately, instead of security guarantees, Ukraine received only security promises, and the Budapest Memorandum turned out to be a useless piece of paper. Five years later, in 1999, Ukraine handed over another 581 missiles to Russia, including all those that could carry nuclear warheads, as well as heavy bombers to deploy them. From that moment on, we were defenseless against Russia. It is possible that Russia started preparing for this war from then on.

(...)

Twice a year, representatives of the Ukrainian manufacturer came by to test the missiles. There were always three engineers together. One of them read out the instructions, the second carried out the operation, and the third made sure that everything was done correctly.

And yet they were always making mistakes, for example, connecting wires incorrectly. These people were often drunk. One of them was so drunk that he fell out of a fifth-story window onto the concrete floor. Strange as it may sound, he got up as if nothing else had happened.

(...)

When, according to the Budapest memorandum, the missiles were taken out of the silos and sent to Russia, the man got to see the empty steel shafts. And strangely enough, the steel, supposedly several meters thick, had a weld seam.

Now these missiles are in Russia, and they are still aimed at the U.S., but since 2014, no engineers from Ukraine have come over to test them for functionality and safety. And if in the past Ukrainian engineers could get drunk and connect some wires incorrectly, by now there may be no one left to wire things properly. It is by no means certain that such a missile fired from a silo will actually fly across the Atlantic. Instead, it could fall on the heads of those who launched it.

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8X7fNbrK8AU

[Jimbuna]

Putin humiliated as Ruble currency crash sparks televised meltdown among Kremlin allies

One hundred Rubles is now worth just one dollar, as the Russian currency appears on the verge of collapsing. The currency crash is the latest humiliating blow for Vladimir Putin, who has poured billions into his war with Ukraine. The stunning decline of the currency sparked a televised meltdown this week among Kremlin allies.

Kremlin propagandist Vladimir Solovyov, who is often seen as a mouthpiece for President Putin, demanded an explanation from the Russian Central Bank for the crash.

The furious TV host remarked that Russia was now a subject of global ridicule.

He said: "They are laughing at us abroad, at our ruble being one of the three weakest currencies."

Meanwhile, one British pound is worth a stunning 126 Rubles, as of writing.

The pitiful dollar exchange rate is the Ruble's weakest level in 16 months.

Mr Solovyov told viewers on his popular Russia-1 programme: "The bloody Central Bank, which has alarmed the whole country and isn't even explaining why the hell the ruble exchange rate has jumped so high.

"Thanks to the 'genius' policy of the Central Bank which despises the people so much that it won't even say a single word to them about what it's doing!"

He turned to his country's politicians, saying: "Have you not noticed the exchange rate we have in the country?

"Have you sent even one request to the central bank? So these people come and explain to people what is going on?"

He warned that the inflation rate could peak during President Putin's re-election campaign, with a vote scheduled for next March.

The Bank of Russia later announced that it would halt purchases of foreign currency on the domestic market for the rest of the year.

The currency slump shows the devastating impact that sanctions from the EU, UK, and US have had on the Russian economy.

There is growing concern among Kremlin officials that budget deficits could risk Russia's intense spending on the war.

It comes after thousands of Russians moved millions into foreign accounts following June's botched Wagner coup.

The central bank had forecast inflation between 5 and 6.5 percent this year, but the rate was already accelerating to 4.3 percent in July.

In July, one Russian parliamentary member Anatoly Aksakov tied the collapsing currency to the Ukraine war.

Mr Aksakov said that Russia's spending in its illegally annexed territories had played a huge role.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/putin-humiliated-as-ruble-currency-crash-sparks-televised-meltdown-among-kremlin-allies/ar-AA1fbUGb?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=fba1cd29b12f48b28fd0eb438b1ea833&ei=12

https://i.postimg.cc/CKVnQfnk/oh-dear-how-sad-never-mind.jpg (https://postimages.org/)

[Reece]

Yeh!! I feel like crying!! :wah: :D

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xqO2fmSYS4E

[Skybird]

Several bloggers close to the Kremlin had recently reported that Ukrainian troops had taken up positions west of Kozachi Laheri after several days of limited attacks across the Dnipro River. At the beginning, reports had even circulated that the Ukrainians had taken the entire village and had advanced far. There are also reports circulating that Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance groups continue to operate west of Kozachi Laheri, but that the settlement itself is still under Russian control. According to ISW, Russian forces fear that Ukrainian forces have established semi-permanent positions across the river.

Still, the institute dampens expectations. All Russian sources write of fighting mainly between light infantry units, it said. Moreover, there is no evidence that Ukrainian forces have heavy equipment or vehicles on the eastern bank. This would be necessary to establish a bridgehead needed for broader offensive operations in the Kherson area on the left bank.

The ISW clarifies that so far there is "no visible evidence that Ukrainian forces have established a permanent position or stationed a large number of soldiers near Kozachi Laheri

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)

[mapuc]

According to Moscow, the captain of the Palau-flagged vessel, the Sukru Okan, had not responded to an order to stop for "an inspection concerning the transport of prohibited goods".

https://www.euronews.com/2023/08/13/russian-navy-fires-warning-shots-at-cargo-ship-in-black-sea

Markus

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BSXvMK-NtJ4

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=liFQOjRuqp8

[Rockstar]

It’s Perun time again boys and girls.

https://youtu.be/7rBlVnc_DEw

[mapuc]

This Danish expert, Anders Puck Nielsen is also being used by our news channel.

Markus

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ekwj20oDaU8

[mapuc]

- Russian fleeing - Is that a part of their training ?

Markus

[Jeff-Groves]

- Russian fleeing - Is that a part of their training ?

Markus
I think they are just advancing in a different direction.
:har:

[Jimbuna]

I think they are just advancing in a different direction.
:har:

I wonder where they learned that from? :03:

[tonschk]

Zelensky To Lose Kupiansk? Russian Bombings Push Back Ukrainian Troops

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KRwe5WfspNk

https://www.hostpic.org/images/2308140319030309.png (https://www.hostpic.org/view.php?filename=2308140319030309.png)

[mapuc]

Translated:

The Russian is running away from Kupiansk

Markus

[Skybird]

I wonder where they learned that from? :03:
Perhaps the Ukrainians have been able to make them believe that the pole jump is complete, and they have readjusted their compasses by 180°.

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1nHj9x3FLvA

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Q_OCXgy9H0

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B6FGpOIwCyA

[Rockstar]

In Their Own Words V: Russian Major

Dylan Combellick

https://archive.ph/Vrxp8

Videos discussed can be viewed via above link

Just a couple of words before I start in with the translation. Note the dates of when he was mobilized and when he arrived at the front. This man is a veteran of earlier wars, but his troops were mobilized simultaneously, and they have no experience.

I have taken the interview format and edited it down into a narrative. If you want to view the interview, there is a link at the end of the article.

I am Major-colonel Yuri Anatolyevich, commander of the 18–22 battalion, Russian Army, a position I have held since February 2, 2023. I was mobilized on September 27, 2022. … I have been on the territory of Ukraine since October 15, 2022. Before my current post, I was the chief of staff in the same unit. The previous commander was removed due to a personal conflict with his superiors, and he was sent to another unit. His name was Lieutenant Colonel Roman Yelich.”
“In our unit, there are officially 619 servicemen. In reality, we have about 550. There have been combat losses. On August 6th, those losses are about 25%. Today, counting two more days of combat, that figure will be 30%. We have been on the contact line since July 28, 2023. We have lost a quarter of our company in just a few weeks.”

“The training of our unit was extremely unsatisfactory because almost nobody trained the personnel. No training. The morale was not at the level it should be. (TRNOTE: he is speaking in very military terminology, as though “extremely unsatisfactory” is a checkmark on an inspection sheet) This is what led to the high losses. The battalion personnel refused to carry out assigned tasks. I also refused to carry out tasks.”

“Participation in the Special Military Operation is not supported by the personnel. The goals are unclear and ambiguous. The policies of the Russian Federation, and in particular Vladimir Putin, are perceived with a critical view and cause great discontent in the ranks.”

“The task assigned to us was to perform the functions of observation along the contact line. In order to carry out tasks like this, personnel need to be trained. However, in the course of the operation, this training was not carried out. The men quickly fell into a terrible state of depression. It’s not possible to participate in combat in such a state. This is what led to everyone refusing to follow orders.”
“I considered the Armed Forces of Ukraine to be the armed extension of the Nazi ideology. Accordingly, that is what I told my men. When I got here, I saw that was not the case. I faced reality. I came to this conclusion after being captured, after I met them, and communicated with them. I changed my views based on how they treated me.”

“While in captivity by the Ukrainian forces, we have been given three meals daily and medical care. We have plenty of water and a place to sleep.”
“When we first arrived in Ukraine, the attitude of the local population was negative towards us. We were treated as invaders. There was no contact with them; it was tense and dangerous. Any contact could erupt into conflict. Even when moving from place to place, we had to take special measures to ensure safety.”

“After seeing the situation of how the locals were living, that they were not in danger before we came, I concluded that the reality of the war started by Vladimir Putin is far removed from the goals that we were told. This is an occupation and a cruel war that does not spare the peaceful population, the life, and health of the citizens of Russia or Ukraine.”

The interviewer asks him a question here. “How, after learning the truth about the war, could you continue to send your men to die?”

“That was a heavy burden. To carry this burden, psychologically, is very difficult. I regret that I was forced to do this every day. It is hypocrisy.
The interviewer asks him a question here. “How, after learning the truth about the war, could you continue to kill peaceful civilians?”

“It is a great pain and incomprehensible. All this has happened to me thanks to the thoughtless, fanatical politics of the President of Russia Vladimir Putin. I don’t understand how we could have changed our worldview 180 degrees. How people who lived a peaceful life began to kill each other. Al this for some ideas that have nothing to do with what is happening.”

“I want to appeal to all combat officers, to my brothers in arms. Stop this pointless and bloody war in Ukraine. Ukraine will win this war. It will not bring anything good to our homes. We must return our military to the Russian Federation and restore order to our own country.”

I found this copy of it with English subtitles, but they have many mistakes in them, but they get the point across.

The Ukrainian’s voice is masked to protect their identity.

[mapuc]

Who is winning the war ?

The answer is certainly not straightforward, according to four experts who spoke to Insider.

It is also heavily dependent on the outcome of Ukraine's counteroffensive and the political situation in Russia, they added. Progress, so far, has been slower than expected, according to some Western officials, although Ukraine has insisted this is deliberate.

https://www.businessinsider.com/who-is-winning-the-war-in-ukraine-russia-putin-zelenskyy-2023-6?r=US&IR=T

Markus

[Skybird]

In the Kharkiv and Luhansk regions, there is currently "very hot fighting" around the cities of Kupyansk and Lyman. This was announced by Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maljar. In the southern part of the Donetsk region, Ukrainian units are also said to be entrenched in the village of Uroshayne. He also said that there were fierce battles south of the neighboring village of Staromajorske, which was liberated just over two weeks ago.
[Frankfurter Rundschau]

**************************

Nothing new on the southern front.

**************************

In the war against Ukraine, the Russian army continues to concentrate its attacks on the Donetsk region. Markus Reisner from the Military Academy in Wiener Neustadt believes that Ukraine currently has little chance in the east, even with weapons from the West.

In the war against Ukraine, Russian troops continue to concentrate on the Donetsk region. Even after the conquest of Luhansk province, the Russian army continues to advance. In eastern Ukraine, there is now the war of attrition that was feared, says Markus Reisner, a historian at the Military Academy in Wiener Neustadt.

In the meantime, the Ukrainian armed forces in the east of the country are becoming increasingly worn out. The big question now is whether Ukraine can still hold the Donetsk administrative district, Reisner said. The military expert doubts that. Even the weapons supplied from the West could hardly stop the superiority of the Russian army. The eight missile launchers from the West, which Ukraine is currently deploying in the east, could hit the Russian army hard. But in the medium term, the Russian side will hardly let that stop it, Reisner said.

The delivery of heavy weapons to Ukraine was too late, the military expert criticizes. As a result, there is now far too little heavy equipment both to repel the Russian army and to ensure that the counteroffensive announced by Ukraine can really succeed. In addition, Ukraine's air defenses are in poor condition.

Reisner calls for listening to the recommendation of many experts: "Either you support Ukraine massively, especially with weapons, then it is in a position to possibly still decide this war for itself." Currently, however, the military expert sees rather an increasingly crumbling support for Ukraine. "Because morale is increasingly falling in European nations due to the economic war." That could have devastating consequences, he says, because Ukraine alone can no longer hold its own against Russia for much longer.


[I]**********************

Its not just the too low number of heavy land weapons, but also the expectation of the Wetsenr natiosn the Ukreiane could conduct combind arms warfare (in which Ukrianian soldiers who recoeved trainign in the wets were at leats minimally trained) while leaving out one of the very basic, indispensable pillars in that doctrine, that is air power. The Wetsenr expetcation is a contradiciton in itself. One could, if one has a drink too much or two, even conclude the West wants the Ukrainian offensive to fail.

The war is now again a war of attrition, and if this stays so, Ukraine will lose. Russia's battle plan has fully acchieved its objective so far. Some media make big show of local Ukrianian successes, but so far all that was reported in oh so decisive wins immediately pales in importance when you sort it into the bigger picture. That is not welcomed, but thats how it is. How I see it at least.

[mapuc]

In the Kharkiv and Luhansk regions, there is currently "very hot fighting" around the cities of Kupyansk and Lyman. This was announced by Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maljar. In the southern part of the Donetsk region, Ukrainian units are also said to be entrenched in the village of Uroshayne. He also said that there were fierce battles south of the neighboring village of Staromajorske, which was liberated just over two weeks ago.
[Frankfurter Rundschau]


Nothing new on the southern front.

This tells me that both part is very determined

Markus

[Skybird]

That Russian major who got captured.



https://www.newsweek.com/missing-russian-major-tomov-captured-video-interrogation-ukraine-war-1819463

[August]

In Their Own Words V: Russian Major

Dylan Combellick

https://archive.ph/Vrxp8

Videos discussed can be viewed via above link


I'm guessing that this Russian Major has no family back home.

[Catfish]

I'm guessing that this Russian Major has no family back home.
Not anymore.
This is RuSSia !

[mapuc]

Someone wrote about shorten of ammo here in West.

Some days ago I read in a Danish article that Denmark has stopped sending ammo and weapons to Ukraine, instead they are sending money and some drones(These is not made for active warfare, more like surveillance)

Denmark have reopen a ammo factory, they did this in the end of last year and it will take some years before it's up and running for full again.

Denmark lack both ammo, material and equipment which is fully functioning

Last year Denmark send totally new artillery they just had bought from France to Ukraine. 6 in total.

Edit
There has been talk about giving Ukraine 4 of Denmarks F16 When their new F35 has been part of Danish air defence.
End edit

Markus

[August]

Not anymore.
This is RuSSia !


Either he's an orphan or he dislikes his family because he's singing like a canary. I wonder if he'll be included in the next prisoner exchange?

[Skybird]

Not anymore.
This is RuSSia !
I think this major is very seriously pissed by Putin. And who knows, without knowing the man: maybe he has a bad conscience. Should happen.

[tonschk]

Pro-Putin Croatia lashes EU for 'overreach', Warns against Brexit-like situation amid war

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KCYwIXm2fl0

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4zUSuKoXqDg

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6_4e9KcPLeM

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_dLK5axf3wM

[Catfish]

^ this was brutal :haha:

[Skybird]

A proposal from within the circle of NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg is causing outrage in Kiev. Stoltenberg's chief of staff, Stian Jenssen, said according to the Norwegian newspaper Verdens Gang that one conceivable way to end the war would be for Ukraine to cede territory permanently to Russia in exchange for membership in NATO. "I'm not saying it has to be that way. But it could be a possible solution," he said.

At the same time, Jenssen stressed that Ukraine should determine when the time is right to negotiate a possible peace with Russia.

Despite this relativization, reactions from Ukraine have been clear. A Foreign Ministry spokesman called the move "absolutely unacceptable." It was assumed that the alliance would not trade territories, he said. At X, Mychaylo Podolyak, an adviser to Ukrainian President Volodimir Zelensky, wrote: "This is ridiculous. This means deliberately choosing the defeat of democracy, encouraging a global criminal to preserve the Russian regime, destroying international law and passing the war on to other generations."

As great as the displeasure in Kiev is over the discussion - it is by no means new. Last March, for example, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken did not rule out negotiations on Ukraine's future border.

[Süddeutsche Zeitung]

Slowly, these voices become louder, and more numerous, Slowly, but surely.

How can this be if a thousand propaganda videos per day show us how successful the Ukraine is fighting and how ridiculous Russian troops are? Maybe because these videos indeed are right this: propaganda?

Dont get me wrong, I am fuming about the way the whole thing is developing. Its just that I said already last summer that this outcome is likely, and that Russia wins by tiring out the West psychologically. The West has no long breath, and many states, and surely and before anyone else: Germany, simply lack the ability to think strategically, long term oriented, realistically.

It seems that the last remaining brigade the Ukrainians had in reserve is now engaged, too. And then look at the map, see what happened in the past 10 weeks (or better: what happened not and what happened inbstead of what was hoped for), and then explain to me how this math should work out well, if you can. I dont see it. The math works terribly ill.

[mapuc]

It could also mean that NATO has and end of how far they will go in supporting Ukraine. In a war who may take years with no given victors.

And the risk of a clash between NATO and Russia as the time goes by

Another thing about this proposal from NATO. Shouldn't it not be unanimously among all the members of NATO ?

Markus

[Jimbuna]

A proposal from within the circle of NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg is causing outrage in Kiev. Stoltenberg's chief of staff, Stian Jenssen, said according to the Norwegian newspaper Verdens Gang that one conceivable way to end the war would be for Ukraine to cede territory permanently to Russia in exchange for membership in NATO. "I'm not saying it has to be that way. But it could be a possible solution," he said.

At the same time, Jenssen stressed that Ukraine should determine when the time is right to negotiate a possible peace with Russia.

Despite this relativization, reactions from Ukraine have been clear. A Foreign Ministry spokesman called the move "absolutely unacceptable." It was assumed that the alliance would not trade territories, he said. At X, Mychaylo Podolyak, an adviser to Ukrainian President Volodimir Zelensky, wrote: "This is ridiculous. This means deliberately choosing the defeat of democracy, encouraging a global criminal to preserve the Russian regime, destroying international law and passing the war on to other generations."

As great as the displeasure in Kiev is over the discussion - it is by no means new. Last March, for example, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken did not rule out negotiations on Ukraine's future border.

[Süddeutsche Zeitung]

Slowly, these voices become louder, and more numerous, Slowly, but surely.

How can this be if a thousand propaganda videos per day show us how successful the Ukraine is fighting and how ridiculous Russian troops are? Maybe because these videos indeed are right this: propaganda?

Dont get me wrong, I am fuming about the way the whole thing is developing. Its just that I said already last summer that this outcome is likely, and that Russia wins by tiring out the West psychologically. The West has no long breath, and many states, and surely and before anyone else: Germany, simply lack the ability to think strategically, long term oriented, realistically.

It seems that the last remaining brigade the Ukrainians had in reserve is now engaged, too. And then look at the map, see what happened in the past 10 weeks (or better: what happened not and what happened inbstead of what was hoped for), and then explain to me how this math should work out well, if you can. I dont see it. The math works terribly ill.

So, in effect....guess who the first country will be that BETRAYS UKRAINE

"This is ridiculous. This means deliberately choosing the defeat of democracy, encouraging a global criminal to preserve the Russian regime, destroying international law and passing the war on to other generations."

Could not be put any better.

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tScemlU7-qk

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q21CijV-RQQ

[Skybird]

Ukraine is forced to move large-scale reserves from the area around the city of Kupyansk to the immediate combat zones with the advancing Russians. These reserves were supposed to be for the defense of the city itself, commentators say.

Russian drones have attacked inland ports on the Danube River near the country's western borders.


It is said that the Russian offensive near Kupyansk is only a diversionary maneuver to draw Ukrainian reserves from the front in the south to the north in order to weaken the Ukrainian offensive. This cannot be ruled out, but I rather believe that the Russians are really concerned with the reconquest of Kharkiv oblast and want to dominate it unitedly. Whether they still have the military strength to do so is another question. It remains to be seen.

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3yIbWvHCBNo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NzJ7i2FjmLc

[tonschk]

The US Government Lied About The Ukraine War - Colonel Douglas Macgregor

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fp28DxlhbAc

[mapuc]

Seen the first 5 minutes of the video, which was more than enough.

Is he on Putler's pay role ?

I have never heard a more pro-Russian propaganda than this.

Markus

[Jimbuna]

Seen the first 5 minutes of the video, which was more than enough.

Is he on Putler's pay role ?

I have never heard a more pro-Russian propaganda than this.

Markus

Probably better described as a traitor Markus.

[mapuc]

^ That word never crossed my mind, it fit well however.

I removed my YT video since Jim has posted the same below

Markus

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H66gtTGUUX0

[Skybird]

^ The man does a lot of Videos on Ukrainian advances here, Russian fallbacks there, but by the end of the day he mostly talks about tiny strips of some some godforsaken meadows here, some small huts there. The very important thing he does not so much talk of is how much these gains, whatever they are worth, have costed the Ukrainians. Not territorial gains but only and alone the loss ratio will be what decides the war. And it seems the Ukrainians pay not a low price again in blood and material.



However, still no decisive operational breakthrough anywhere. They must get at least in range to have coastal roads and especially the one railway there in sight of their artillery, else that was it with their offensive. Brace yourself, autumn is coming, and with it rain and mud.

[Skybird]

Und wenn man vom Teufel spricht... Tagesspiegel writes this:


The last ace: With the deployment of its most powerful brigade, Ukraine takes a big risk

2000 soldiers make up the 82nd Ukrainian Airborne Brigade. They are to be deployed on the front lines near Robotyne. [This may be] both good and bad news.

With the 82nd Airborne Brigade, Ukraine has moved its last ace up its sleeve to the front, according to experts. Over the weekend, footage had surfaced showing heavy equipment of the force near Robotyne in the central section of the contact line in the Zaporizhzhya region.

"You definitely want to make a breakthrough before the fall/winter and the onset of the first mud period, " Colonel Markus Reisner of the Austrian army told the Tagesspiegel. Still, the 82nd Brigade's redeployment could lead to massive problems as the war progresses.

The 82nd Airborne Brigade is subordinate to 2000 soldiers, reports the US business magazine "Forbes". The British-trained force is equipped with 90 U.S. Stryker wheeled infantry fighting vehicles, 40 Marder infantry fighting vehicles and 14 British Challenger 2 main battle tanks, giving it more combat power than the rest of the Ukrainian army.

The bulk of the brigade has so far apparently been able to move unnoticed toward the front line in Zaporizhzhya . Russian drones are said to have spotted one Stryker and one Marder each.


The former - a Stryker - has been damaged by an ammunition drop, according to OSINT analysts of the Oryx blog. Only about one and a half kilometers from Russian positions in Robotyne, "Forbes" reports.

The Oryx blog lists all known losses of Ukraine and Russia during the war of aggression. Their information comes from freely available sources - Open Source Intelligence (OSINT).

The British Challenger-2 battle tanks do not appear on any photographs so far. Nevertheless, it can be assumed that they were deployed to the front along with the rest of the brigade. Colonel Reisner also believes this to be the case. The footage means that "now the last of the 'brigades of offensives' , the 82nd Air Assault Brigade, has also been sent into action by Ukraine," explains to the Tagesspiegel.

The deployment of the brigade can significantly strengthen Ukraine's firepower in the central section of the front and bring terrain gains against the Russian invaders. As a positive example, "Forbes" cites the deployment of all four Ukrainian naval front brigades to the Mokri Jaly River in Donetsk Oblast, just 80 kilometers east of Robotyne. The redeployment had paid off for Kiev.

The marines had liberated several settlements in the direction of the port city of Mariupol. Among them was the presumed recapture of the village of Uroshayne, which had been contested for days. "Uroshayne has been liberated," Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar announced Wednesday.

Still, advances there could soon falter. "The Marines will eventually need rest," the newspaper writes. It is unclear who could replace the forces , now that all Ukrainian brigades are tied up in combat operations. Even the 82nd Airborne Brigade is no longer available for that purpose.

Kiev still has uncommitted Territorial and National Guard brigades, but they are generally less well equipped and trained, Forbes analysts write.

Ukraine has also increased its forces on the front lines in Kharkiv and Luhansk. For just under a month, they say, units of the Russian 1st Guards Tank Army have stepped up their attacks between Kupyansk and Kreminna. In response, Kiev was "forced to massively deploy reserves to the affected area ", explained Colonel Reisner. Ukraine also confirmed this on Tuesday evening.

"The deployment of these forces reduces Ukraine's room for maneuver , continuing the offensive in the central region that has been underway since June 4," he explains. "There is thus a risk of being tied up on several fronts at once." Larger attacks would then no longer be possible, he said. That, too, "is certainly the intention of the Russian side ".

Moreover, there is a risk that Russian units will be able to withstand the reinforced Ukrainian forces and then in turn advance on exhausted soldiers once the now redeployed brigades have to be withdrawn for restructuring and recovery.
------------------------

Well. Alea jacta est.

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8pjrnFj8BiE

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dOYuAa1HEpI
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NFj-3c7j6I0

[Reece]

:Kaleun_Applaud: :Kaleun_Thumbs_Up: :Kaleun_Cheers:

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6_luBMaWk58

[mapuc]

So much for all these sanctions EU and USA have applied on Russia.

They sell oil and gas like never before to Asia and India.

Russia sell oil and gas for around 440 million dollars per day

Time is on Russian side, someone wrote-Could this be true ?
Isn't time also against Russia ?

Markus

[Skybird]

The West never was really serious with those sanctions, still is not, and likely will never be. Its show. They make a big show now of the falling Rubel, too, but it will not bring down Russia. Russia feels some economic pains, and not more. Also, there are things that the West vitally depends on Russia to deliver. How can one then try to scare Russia by "sanctions"...? Fact also is that thsi year Russia will have a higher economic growth than Germany (whose growth is negatzive), and some other Western economies.

Russia is a long way from collapsing, and I cannot see signs that Putin is in danger from within his circles, or from the secret service, or the military or the oligarchs. I see absolutely zero signs for that. It can change later, it may change maybe, who knows. But currently: no sign at all. The regime is stable, because even those who curse the start of the war now stay loyal to it and say that now that the mess has been started one must make sure that one at least wins it. If somebody would tell me the regime is more stable now than it was before the war, I would take it as a believable claim.

[Skybird]

The WP writes US intel expects Melitopol to be out of reach for the offensive now. If so, and I think it is so, then the offensive has practically failed. Numerical superiority for the win.

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G36D5au244A

[Jimbuna]

Now here we have a rare comedy sketch from Germany performed by all of a couple of dozen idiots at most.

Is it possible that Germany have invaded another country and killed and raped countless civilians as well as forcibly kidnapping their children?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6cvvXpshFHY

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0M05j0FUixI

[mapuc]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ek3Tg4VEMkE&ab_channel=CombatVeteranReacts

Markus

[mapuc]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1XUpGfCG6WY&ab_channel=DivineJustice

Markus

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cUDgLLCYvbU

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rp3RrXGSsJ4
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FytCfqUtERU

[mapuc]

I trust Denys Davydov a lot more than Hindu Times and McGregor Who like Russia more than his own country.

Markus

[Skybird]

Denys slowly but surely kills my nerves. He blows up smallest Ukrainain gains beyond proportions. Watching his videos I sometimes wonder why they have not already reached Gorky Park.
But he is honest enough to not hide the losses, too. That speaks for him.

He probably just is desperate to see a light - any light - at the end of the tunnel.

[Skybird]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FytCfqUtERU
"on the brink of collapse"...? "Collapse imminent"...?

Again...?

How many times is that now?

[mapuc]

If any should be interested. He's going live in 20 min.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w_benk_JAtM&ab_channel=CombatVeteranReacts

Markus

[Skybird]

Wowh. I knew it was bad, but I did not know it was that bad.


https://www-focus-de.translate.goog/politik/rheinmetall-boss-verraet-merkel-regierung-wollte-bis-zur-krim-annexion-waffen-an-russland-liefern_id_202265244.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TZSh4Y5SjWo

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VRtlT9Eg_I0

[ET2SN]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E-Bxqzba1Xs

This is a kind of a big-table buffet video.
There's a lot to pick at and a lot to digest. :yep:

[mapuc]

The U.S. intelligence community assesses that Ukraine’s counteroffensive will fail to reach the key southeastern city of Melitopol, people familiar with the classified forecast told The Washington Post, a finding that, should it prove correct, would mean Kyiv won’t fulfill its principal objective of severing Russia’s land bridge to Crimea in this year’s push.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/08/17/ukraine-counteroffensive-melitopol/

Markus

[ET2SN]

War is not supposed to be easy. :O:

I've typed it before, it is up to Ukraine and, to an extent, Russia what a victory will look like and when it will happen.

[mapuc]

War is not supposed to be easy. :O:

I've typed it before, it is up to Ukraine and, to an extent, Russia what a victory will look like and when it will happen.

I was well I would say almost everyone of us, even the expert, was expecting a swift take of the areas that Ukrainian would take Meriopol like they toke Kharkiv in Sept. last year.

And we expected the same result as last Sept. Now when it doesn't happens we point fingers at the Ukrainian.

But this time the Russian was and is prepared.

I'm also thinking of the Ketchup effect-First time you hit the bottom nothing comes out, you keep on hitting the bottom only a few drops comes out and then suddenly the Ketchup is running out of the bottle.

The offensive will go slowly until they have passed the third or fourth Russian defence line and then it will go swiftly-This is what I hope.

Markus

[Jeff-Groves]

War is real easy. War fighting is the hard part!

To start War some Guy in power just decides to do it and the minions go do the hard part!

[Jeff-Groves]

I'm also thinking of the Ketchup effect-First time you hit the bottom nothing comes out, you keep on hitting the bottom only a few drops comes out and then suddenly the Ketchup is running out of the bottle.



You don't know the secret of a Ketchup bottle do you.
:haha:

https://www.eatthis.com/ketchup-bottle-trick/

[Skybird]

I was well I would say almost everyone of us, even the expert, was expecting a swift take of the areas that Ukrainian would take Meriopol like they toke Kharkiv in Sept. last year.
No, me not, and I expressed my scepticism from beginning on.

It was time/passing of seasons and Western expectation that made them launching their offensive. But Essential conditions were not fulfilled, and I said that. No Airpower. No sufficient Airdefence. Not sufficient mine clearing Equipment. Not sufficient arty ammunition, of which they soon will run dry again. Too few tanks. TBH, anything but the bogging down would have been a surprise. The only thing that surprised me was the true amount by which they still run operations by Sovjet doctrine, I thought they better adapted Western doctrine. But then again: without some pillars of that doctrine like sufficient air power?


Maybe you guys are surprised, I am not. Call me a pessimist if you want, but I think I saw it realistic from beginning on.

[Skybird]

https://m-focus-de.translate.goog/politik/ausland/ukraine-krise/ukraine-zu-erfolgreich-gezielte-treffer-gegen-russen-ruetteln-auch-usa-wach_id_201330904.html?cid=whatsnext_0,whatsnext_a&_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp

[mapuc]

No, me not, and I expressed my scepticism from beginning on.

It was time/passing of seasons and Western expectation that made them launching their offensive. But Essential conditions were not fulfilled, and I said that. No Airpower. No sufficient Airdefence. Not sufficient mine clearing Equipment. Not sufficient arty ammunition, of which they soon will run dry again. Too few tanks. TBH, anything but the bogging down would have been a surprise. The only thing that surprised me was the true amount by which they still run operations by Sovjet doctrine, I thought they better adapted Western doctrine. But then again: without some pillars of that doctrine like sufficient air power?


Maybe you guys are surprised, I am not. Call me a pessimist if you want, but I think I saw it realistic from beginning on.

I did remember some in here was sceptic which was the reason I wrote Almost.

I still have hope that the offensive will increase in speed when they have manage to take the last line of Russian defence in the south.
'Cause thereafter there isn't any Russian defense line.

However the time is not on Ukrainians side. Autumn is approaching fast.
Which is a disadvantage for the Ukrainian and an advantage for the Russian-That is if they can slow the Ukrainian offensive until late autumn, where rain comes and then winter arrives.

Markus

[Gorpet]

Joey Biden, Has stated whatever it takes,..NATO will fall in line and if it means,New-clee-er war that's 3 syllables for you old folk.That's good and why is that good. No more divisen across the planet.Immigration,color, religion,culture a cleansing of the planet we live on.A new start for Earth! Unfortunately it will not be a man and a women.It will be the alphabets that crawl out from their bunkers.To start the Neanderthal age all over again. And i think it really would be the best future for EARTH. Don't you ?

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ntq1hNdj5nc

[Exocet25fr]

https://www.agoravox.fr/local/cache-vignettes/L620xH422/000003-f9476.png

[Jimbuna]

OOPS!

Humiliation for Putin as Russia's Luna-25 spacecraft 'crashes into moon'
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/humiliation-for-putin-as-russia-s-luna-25-spacecraft-crashes-into-moon/ar-AA1fvU94?ocid=mailsignout&pc=U591&cvid=11ff9d0f1e2e4252b83059cac9bd3dc3&ei=17

[Exocet25fr]

Russophobia acknowledged.......:03:

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DBzGO0PfliQ

[Catfish]

Russophobia acknowledged.......:03:
So "criticizing" or hating a dictator waging war of agggression makes me a "russiophobe"? So be it :haha:

But of course you are angry, France did not sell its french helicopters to Russia due to the german veto :)

[Exocet25fr]

I didn't know about hello !:haha: return in your river little fish :O:

[mapuc]

France has so to say given mobile artillery to Ukraine-More likely Denmark bought 6 of the French Caesar and gave it directly to Ukraine

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CAESAR_self-propelled_howitzer

Markus

[tonschk]

UKRAINE – Men of the 82nd Airborne Assault Brigade of Ukraine have surrendered to Russia.

https://starconnectmedia.com/ukraine-82nd-airborne-assault-brigade-surrender-to-russia/

The soldiers, known as the Last reserve of Ukraine’s elite soldiers, comprising 2000 soldiers surrendered in the Zaporizhzhia rigion. We gathered that it was a peaceful surrender without any bloodshed.

Soldiers of the “elite”, the last reserve of the Armed Forces of Ukraine surrendered in the Zaporozhye region

The unit was recently deployed to the Rabotino region, following serious depletion in the manpower of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

The Russians, we gathered have been encouraging members of the Ukrainian Army to surrender voluntarily to preserve their lives and avoid needless bloodshed.

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_GmJPXcRNwc