Here we go again-Ukraine once again pt2 [Archive] - Page 12

Jimbuna

02-29-24, 02:07 PM

Putin warns West against sending troops to Ukraine

Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned Western countries against sending troops to Ukraine.

The consequences of such a decision would be "tragic", he said.

In his annual state of the nation address, President Putin accused the West of trying to drag Russia into an arms race.

At the same time, he said that Russia needed to strengthen its defences on its western border now that Sweden and Finland were joining Nato.

President Putin said the West "provoked" the conflict in Ukraine and "continues to lie, without any embarrassment, saying that Russia allegedly intends to attack Europe".

Probably referring to comments by French President Emmanuel Macron earlier this week that sending Nato ground troops to Ukraine "could not be excluded", President Putin said: "The consequences for possible interventionists will be... tragic."

"We also have weapons that can hit targets on their territory," he added.

"All this really threatens a conflict with the use of nuclear weapons and the destruction of civilisation. Don't they get that?"

Several Nato countries, including the US, Germany and the UK, ruled out deploying ground troops to Ukraine.

President Putin also boasted about Russia's sophisticated weapons - like hypersonic aircraft and unmanned underwater vehicles - and said that Russia's strategic nuclear forces are in a "state of full readiness".

Notably, President Putin explicitly referred to the two years of fighting in Ukraine as a "war", despite his repeated insistence that Russia's invasion should be described as a "special military operation".

He said that an "absolute majority" of Russians supported his decision to invade Ukraine, and that the Russian people were now united against what he called Western attempts to weaken the country.

He also hit out at accusations from the US that Russia is developing nuclear weapons for use against satellites in space.

The speech came just over two weeks before Russia's presidential election, in which President Putin is widely expected to win a fifth term in office.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the address could "to a large degree be seen as [Putin's] election programme".

Indeed, much of the address focused on domestic issues ranging from the modernisation of the tax system to pensions and incentives aimed at boosting Russia's dwindling birth rate.

He also talked about the need to improve the health of the nation, announcing a series of measures aimed at boosting Russia's life expectancy, which at 70 is currently one of the lowest in Europe.

Urging people to focus on physical activity and cut down alcohol consumption, he joked: "Stop drinking and start skiing!"

The speech lasted a record two hours and was attended by all senior politicians, the CEOs of oil and gas firms Rosneft and Gazprom, as well as religious leaders of all denominations.

It was broadcast on giant screens across Moscow, and several cinemas in Russian cities reportedly screened it free of charge.

As expected, there was no mention of the death of Alexei Navalny, the opposition leader who died in a Siberian penal colony two weeks ago and who many saw as President Putin's greatest opponent.

Navalny, who will be buried in Moscow on Friday, died under circumstances yet to be fully established on 16 February. His widow Yulia has insisted that President Putin was responsible.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68435163

Dargo

02-29-24, 02:56 PM

^That nuclear threat felt like an obligation, his focus was mostly on domestic politics. Macron's statement sending ground troops to Ukraine was immediately knocked back by NATO boss Jens Stoltenberg and other Western leaders. It was a gift for Putin only too happy to unwrap. The US has made it very clear that in case Russia uses any nuclear weapon it will cripple the Russian army in Ukraine and China also has told Putin this is a no-go escalation Russia will become the pariah in the world.

Skybird

02-29-24, 06:22 PM

The US army has made clear - what exactly? As i recall it, Biden told some words to Putin long time ago. Well. That certainly left an impression. Russia has obliterated several big cities since then. And the US never gave Ukriane what it needed tio secure victory over Russia - only the bare minimum needed to not immediately lose.

I concluded already weeks ago that the West decided to let Ukraine fall. The only question is how high they dare to push the price for Russia's army. But there is a treshhold that the West will not overstep, i am quite certain of that by now.

It is moving at like i said already two years ago. In the end the West will betray Ukraine.

I also said back then that I think Russia will use nukes if it does not get the minimum it wants to get in Ukraine. How ever it defines "minimum". Probably the five already occupied oblasts.

Zelensky dreams of much more than he can get. His people realised that meanwhile. Thats why his star is sinking. A poll they reported on last week now already had his approval rating no longer at just below 60%, but at around 50%, falling.

Skybird

02-29-24, 06:33 PM

[Focus]"What the British and French are doing in terms of target control and accompanying target control cannot be done in Germany" - this quote from the Chancellor is causing debate. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz's statements on the targeting of cruise missiles in Ukraine by the UK and France (https://www.focus.de/orte/frankreich/) have met with sharp criticism from experts and allies.

Scholz has made a serious technical error, German security expert Maximilian Terhalle, visiting professor at the London School of Economics and Political Science, told the German Press Agency on Thursday. "He has laid the axe to the cohesion of NATO" and endangered cooperation with Ukraine, said Terhalle. It was a gross mistake to make the intelligence findings of the closest allies public.

CDU politician Matthias Hauer summarized the situation on X (formerly Twitter) as follows: "French angry. British (https://www.focus.de/orte/england/) angry. Putin satisfied."

Conservative MP Tobias Ellwood, the former head of the defense committee in the British parliament, expressed similar sentiments. "This is a blatant misuse of intelligence deliberately designed to distract from Germany's reluctance to equip Ukraine with its own long-range missile system," Ellwood told the Telegraph newspaper. Russia (https://www.focus.de/orte/russland/) would exploit Scholz's statements to further fuel the escalation.

On Monday, the Federal Chancellor declared his opposition to the delivery of German Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine. "What the British and French are doing in terms of target control and accompanying target control cannot be done in Germany," Scholz had said. "What other countries do, which have other traditions and other constitutional institutions, is something that we cannot do in the same way."

There is speculation that the French and British are programming the Scalp and Storm Shadow cruise missiles supplied to Ukraine themselves and that the UK at least has personnel stationed in Ukraine for this purpose. This has never been officially confirmed.

The British Ministry of Defense then told Der Spiegel: "The use of Storm Shadow and the target selection process are a matter for the Ukrainian armed forces. The UK, along with other allies, is providing a range of equipment to Ukraine to assist them in countering Russia's illegal and unprovoked aggression." In response, German government spokesman Steffen Hebestreit said he saw no contradiction to the Chancellor's statements.

A spokesman for British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak told journalists on Tuesday: "Apart from the small number of personnel we have in the country to support Ukraine's armed forces, we have no plans for a large-scale deployment."

France has also never officially communicated whether French soldiers are helping to program cruise missiles in Ukraine. The training of Ukrainian soldiers by France takes place in France or in neighboring countries of the country attacked by Russia, it was said so far. The reaction to Scholz's statements has now been cautious. "As far as the German Chancellor's statements are concerned, we would like to remind you that everyone acts within the framework that they consider appropriate," said the Paris Foreign Ministry on Thursday. "Our goal is the same: To make Russia fail."

sh3rules

02-29-24, 07:35 PM

^I hear that Ukraine has a new wunder anti-air missile system, the Blyat-200.

😄

Ok, that made me laugh. We're speculating here but, could Su-34s really be that helpless against F-16s? Or is it because the Russian pilots are going in blind with their A-50s being too far away from the front line? Or has Russia already lost its best pilots?

Skybird

02-29-24, 08:18 PM

��

Ok, that made me laugh. We're speculating here but, could Su-34s really be that helpless against F-16s? Or is it because the Russian pilots are going in blind with their A-50s being too far away from the front line? Or has Russia already lost its best pilots?
Or they just did not expect Vipers to be in the air already, and got ambushed, out of the blue, unprepared. The F-16 is not only versatile, but also is a formidable air fighter - and has capable weapons for air combat BVR.
Its a believable scenario, I think.
Mind you, two A50s got shot down recently, too. And not exactly inside Ukrainian air space, but quite significantly away. I would assume their crews knew the range of Patriots, so that answer given by some I do not believe too much.

Skybird

02-29-24, 08:25 PM

ZDF Analysis: Russia can maintain the war at its current level for another 2-3 years. that would meet my estimation - or wild guess :) - that Ruissia, before the assault on Ukraine, was able to fight wars up to half a decade long.

https://www-fr-de.translate.goog/politik/putin-selenskyj-putin-ukraine-krieg-russland-muniton-mangel-nato-panzer-92863388.html?_x_tr_sl=de&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de

(...) At the moment, the Russian war economy seems to be able to compensate for the worn-out material. According to research by ZDF, Russia is unable to increase its current combat power - but the supplies are sufficient to maintain the current troop strength. Tanks are currently a major point of wear for Russia. Although Russia can draw on a huge stock of old Soviet machines, these need to be modernised and refurbished in order to be suitable for front-line operations. And even the stockpile from Soviet days cannot compensate for endless losses.

Russia has lost more tanks in the Ukraine war than the active tank fleet had at the beginning of the invasion in February 2022, writes ZDF. Russia can send 80 to 120 tanks to the front per month to compensate for this, with only 15 to 20 of these being new. The rest are modernised Soviet vehicles from the Cold War. According to current estimates, this production rate cannot be increased, as Russia has reached its maximum tank output.

The two tank plants, one in Nizhny Tagil for new production and one in Chita for tank repairs, are working at full capacity. Although it would theoretically be possible to build new plants, this would take years. At the current rate of wear and tear, Russia could theoretically hold out for another two to three years and maintain its current level of supply. (...)

em2nought

03-01-24, 03:14 AM

Skybird

03-01-24, 03:38 AM

I bet if the West hadn't become so incredibly woke and insane then none of this would ever have happened. If I was a country seeing how crazy the West is I think I'd be starting to think about buffers between me and them, like Texas might need Oklahoma for instance. :03:
I share this view, but add the chaotic afghanistan pullout and the sad state of the defence industry to the list of factors.

em2nought

03-01-24, 09:43 AM

I must reveal my bias here. I've reacted with a very strong dislike to every Ukrainian chick who has appeared on "Ninety Day Fiancé ". :D

Dargo

03-01-24, 10:42 AM

Masses of people on the march for Navalny's funeralThere are no official figures on the number of people marching for Navalny's funeral, but aerial images show the number to be in the thousands. They step in a long procession from the church to the cemetery, chanting "no to war," "Bring the soldiers home!," "Ukrainians are good people!" "Russia without Putin" and "Russia will be free." The police are visibly present, but are said to have not intervened for now. There are no official reports that people have been arrested. The Kremlin warned earlier that it was forbidden to school together.

https://i.postimg.cc/x83LcQj2/Navalny.jpg

After a delay of more than 10 minutes, Navalny's body was successfully buried. "They are now carrying the coffin outside," reports Navalny's ally Ivan Zhdanov on Telegram. "They are opening the lid of the coffin. Family members say goodbye. They lower the coffin. Then others may come forward and throw a handful of earth on the coffin." According to Navalny's team, Frank Sinatra's song "My Way" was played during the burial. According to Zhdanov, police officers initially kept the pallbearers at bay, preventing them from reaching Navalny's hearse. The earlier service in a church drew thousands of people, according to Navalny's team. The journey from the hearse to the cemetery also took place amid great interest. Residents of Moscow and the surrounding area tell Navalny's team that they came to the funeral because they appreciated the courage of the opposition leader.

Russia today; A country where a widow canÂ’t be at the funeral of her husband, but has to say goodbye via social media because in Moscow she would risk arrest as an extremist. The same goes for NavalnyÂ’s brother, children and all his key team members (those not already in prison) just shows how scared, and thus weak, Putin really is. The courage of all those people is huge, they face life in the gulag only to be at this funeral.

Russian media report that about 30 people were detained in Moscow, Yekaterinurg and Novosibirsk at the funeral and memorials of Alexei Navalny. 18 people were detained in Novosibirsk for bringing flowers to Navalny's makeshift memorial. 10 more were detained in Yekaterinburg for the same reason. Reportedly, in Moscow, a person was detained for shouting "Who killed Navalny?" This is why Putin banned all demonstrations and throws people in prison for the slightest descent. He's terrified of the Russian people terrified of a protest momentum, which may draw in Russia's security forces terrified of a Ceausescu tipping point moment.

Putin deployed lots of police to Navalny's funeral - but it would barely enough if all this crowd starts a more radical action. The number of attendees is higher than Kremlin expected, so now Putin has to take care this doesn't show up in a vote count in Moscow during "elections". https://twitter.com/VerstyukIvan/status/1763577230087569429

We might not see widespread arrest today, but be sure that the FSB will be knocking on doors in the coming days and weeks.

LOL TASS: March 1. Navalny was buried in the Borisovskoye cemetery in Moscow. Out of his close relatives, only his parents came to the ceremony, his widow and children did not come. https://twitter.com/andrey_malgin/status/1763603383447920656

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte have signed a ten-year security cooperation pact between Ukraine and the Netherlands. In Kharkiv (40Km from the front), President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Prime Minister Mark Rutte visited buildings damaged by Russian missile attacks and honoured the memory of children whose lives were claimed by Russian aggression. Rutte further announced that the Netherlands is allocating an additional 150 million euros to support Ukraine. In the security agreement, the Netherlands assures Ukraine of military support over the next ten years. The Netherlands will also provide reconstruction assistance once the war is over. And the Netherlands will support Ukraine in finding the truth so that justice is done to the victims of Russian war crimes. "We announced that we are participating in the Czech initiative, which will ship a very large batch of munitions to Ukraine in the coming weeks," Rutte said. "So that is going to happen very quickly. We had already committed 100 million euros, we have decided to increase that to a quarter of a billion euros, and we are inviting other countries to join that initiative as well."

"Putin knows that if you even lift a finger to the nuclear weapon, that would mean a catastrophic reaction from the West. He knows that, so he won't. So we don't have to be anxious about that either, and we don't have to be intimidated by this man." It is Rutte's fifth visit to Ukraine since the start of the war. Together with President Zelensky, he visited an underground school and a hospital in Kharkiv, among other places. He said he was impressed by "the enormous destruction that has been done" in the city. The prime minister was also at Freedom Square, which many Dutch people know as Orange Square, during the 2012 European Football Championship. "All those buildings are now very badly damaged. Some totally disused. It's very sad on the one hand, but you also see the enormous resilience of this brave city." Rutte further stressed the importance of continuing to support Ukraine. "What is happening here now is of course also our struggle. Not literally, but just imagine if it didn't end well here. That has direct implications for our security. It must not go wrong."

In February 2024, Ukrainian Railways transported 14.5 million tons of cargo in all modes of transportation. This is a record since the start of the full-scale invasion, a 30% increase from February 2023 and a 3% increase from the previous record month. "Thanks to coordinated and systematic work, we are recording stable growth in freight transportation. In February, a record number of cargo was transported since the beginning of the full-scale invasion. All 100% of the requests we received for freight transportation were implemented, and the cargo was delivered on time. Once again, the Ukrainian sea corridor proved its effectiveness, and as a result, almost 7.8 million tons of cargo were transported for export, of which 3.3 million tons are grain," noted the Chairman of the Management Board of JSC "Ukrzaliznytsia" Yevhen Liashchenko.
In general, exports increased by 53% compared to February 2023.
A total of 5.2 million tons of cargo were transported through port stations in February 2024, and 2.6 million tons through western border crossings.
2.8 million tons of grain cargo were transported through port stations, 537 thousand tons through western border crossings.
More than 5.8 million tons were transported in domestic traffic in February, which is 6% more than in February 2023.
Import transportation increased by 65% until February 2023 and amounted to 872.4 thousand tons.
https://twitter.com/Ukrzaliznytsia/status/1763561428739367167

mapuc

03-01-24, 11:48 AM

It says the video is 2 month old.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L4Jwt5nva4s&ab_channel=CombatVeteranReacts

Markus

Jimbuna

03-01-24, 12:50 PM

Russians chant ‘Putin is a killer’ in biggest act of defiance yet

Crowds in Moscow shouted ‘Putin is a killer’ as they gathered for the funeral of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny. Navalny’s supporters strongly believe the president is responsible for the 47-year-old’s death at a penal colony last month. Today his coffin travelled in a hearse to the Church of the Icon of the Mother of God Soothe My Sorrows, in the Maryino district, where he has previously lived.

His coffin was carried inside while mourners applauded and called out ‘Navalny! Navalny!’ as large numbers of riot police watched on. It’s reported several churches in the capital had refused to hold the service. Hours before the funeral was set to start, hundreds waited to enter the church and Western diplomats were spotted in the long queue.

Authorities lined the road from a nearby subway station to the church with crowd-control barriers. As Navalny’s body set out on his last journey to his funeral, Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov said: ‘The Kremlin has nothing to say to Navalny’s relatives on the day of his funeral’

Navalny associate Leonid Volkov said Putin would one day answer in court for the death of the politician. ‘Peskov said that Putin has nothing to say to Alexei Navalny’s family,’ he said. ‘I want to dare to say that Alexei’s family doesn’t need a single word from Vladimir Putin. All the words we would need from Putin are those he’ll say before the judge'

One mourner said: ‘I feel this is a funeral for the Russia that might have been.’ A woman said: ‘For us it was hope for a brighter future, not for North Korea. This is the only thing we can do now is to pay tribute to the memory, keep it. A person lives as long as we remember him. We need to remember why he got there. For us, for everyone. And of course continue, don’t give up, as he asked'

After the service, which was livestreamed on Youtube, Navalny was taken to be buried at Borisovskoye Cemetery, where police also showed up in force. Navalny died at an Arctic penal colony in Kharp, in the Yamalo-Nenets region on February 16. His cause of death has still not been explained by authorities.

His mother, Lyudmila Navalnaya, spent eight days trying to get authorities to release the body. They initially said they could not hand Navalny over because they needed to conduct post-mortem tests. Ms Navalnaya, 69, who was seen at the funeral, made a video appeal calling for Putin to release the body so she could bury her son with dignity. Once it was released, at least one funeral director said he had been ‘forbidden’ to work with Navalny’s supporters, the spokeswoman for Navalny’s team, Kira Yarmysh, said on social media. They also struggled to find a hearse for the funeral.

‘Unknown people are calling up people and threatening them not to take Alexei’s body anywhere,’ Ms Yarmysh said on Thursday. Many Western leaders have blamed Putin for Navalny’s death, but the Kremlin denies it is responsible. Navalny was a fierce foe of Putin, campaigning against official corruption and organising large protests against the current government.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/russians-chant-putin-is-a-killer-in-biggest-act-of-defiance-yet/ss-BB1jb50u?ocid=msedgntp&pc=U531&cvid=e638f033a02447d49c760d6c4c3ee119&ei=13#image=1

Jimbuna

03-01-24, 01:09 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=59rf9xDRoUY

Dargo

03-01-24, 01:41 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q2Eg5MBcsuM

Jimbuna

03-01-24, 01:51 PM

Biden considers draining depleted U.S. weapons stockpile for Ukraine

President Joe Biden may send more American weapons and ammunition to Ukraine, even though Congress is stalling additional funding to replace them, according to reports.

The Pentagon has not made a final decision, but officials are considering the idea as another way to support Ukraine despite the potential political pitfalls for the Biden administration.

Depleting American stockpiles in order to support Ukraine would anger many Republicans who believe Biden has to prioritize the defense of the United States first. Sen. Jack Reed, D-R.I., who serves at chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, told the New York Times that the idea was 'on the table.

The Defense Department has around $4 billion authorized to send Ukraine from its own stockpiles, according to CNN , but that the Pentagon remains reluctant to use them without reassurance that they will get replaced.

In April 2022, U.S. stocks of Javelin anti-tank missiles and Stinger anti-aircraft missiles had been depleted by a third, leaving the Pentagon scrambling to replenish them.

The Pentagon already warned in September that the replenishment of U.S. stockpiles was slowing due to reluctance from House Republicans to pass more aid for Ukraine.

Earlier this month, Marine Corps Lt. Gen. Karsten Heckl raised concerns of the armed service's ability to replenish stockpiles while assisting Ukraine.

The Senate passed a $95 billion foreign aid package earlier this month which includes $60 billion for Ukraine. But Republican Speaker Mike Johnson (pictured) remains reluctant to bring it to the floor, citing the need for President Biden to confront the crisis on the southern border first.

Biden continues to reassure Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky that the United States will ultimately provide him the aid and munitions that he needs to defend his country from Russia.

'I'm going to fight until we get them the ammunition they need and the capacity they need to defend themselves,' Biden said during a White House speech last week.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/biden-considers-draining-depleted-u-s-weapons-stockpile-for-ukraine/ss-BB1jaeGp?ocid=msedgntp&pc=U531&cvid=eed0039860414c05a9ba11c8902b4d8b&ei=10#image=1

Dargo

03-01-24, 02:05 PM

😄

Ok, that made me laugh. We're speculating here but, could Su-34s really be that helpless against F-16s? Or is it because the Russian pilots are going in blind with their A-50s being too far away from the front line? Or has Russia already lost its best pilots?This could mean the US gave Ukraine a new interceptor for the Patriot system. Either a not-disclosed Patriot PAC-2 GEM missile with active radar homing or a not-disclosed variant of the Navy's SM-6 Block I.

Skybird

03-02-24, 05:30 AM

Skybird

03-02-24, 05:51 AM

First time Su-57 enters Ukrainian air space.

https://defence-blog.com/russia-uses-newest-su-57-jet-to-strike-targets-in-ukraine/

Jimbuna

03-02-24, 06:23 AM

And was as successful as our recent submarine nuclear missile launch :)

Jimbuna

03-02-24, 06:53 AM

Ukrainian commander-in-chief eyes leadership shake-up

The commander-in-chief of Ukraine's armed forces has signalled he will replace some military leaders on the eastern front.

Gen Oleksandr Syrskyi said after three days of work it had become clear why some brigades were managing to hold off Russian attacks while others had not.

It comes after Ukraine withdrew its troops from Avdiivka - a key eastern town besieged by Russian forces.

President Volodymyr Zelensky said the decision was made to save lives.

Avdiivka has been engulfed in fierce fighting for months and has been a battlefield town since 2014, when Russian-backed fighters seized large swathes of the eastern Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

The fall of Avdiivka marks the biggest change on the more than 1,000km-long (620-mile) front line since Russian troops seized the nearby town of Bakhmut in May 2023.

This week Ukraine's military said it had withdrawn from two more villages near Avdiivka, losing more territory as weapons and ammunition from its Western allies runs short.

Gen Syrskyi said he would change those commanders whose orders and actions threatened the lives of their troops.

He wrote on Telegram: "First of all, it depends on the brigade commander, his level of training, experience, ability to make adequate and balanced decisions and understanding of the full responsibility for the performance of assigned tasks and for the life and health of his subordinates.

"Undoubtedly, the level of training and co-ordination of the brigade headquarters, through which the commander exercises his powers, plays a great role.

"Therefore, I have sent groups of specialists to individual brigades where there are problems with the preparation of the headquarters to transfer experience and provide assistance."

But, Gen Syrskyi praised some brigades, and promised - after listening to front-line units - to provide reserves, ammunition and expertise to back them up.

He insisted the situation on the front line "remains difficult, but controlled".

Separately in Russia, two buildings in St Petersburg were damaged and people were evacuated on Saturday morning after local residents reported a loud explosion which blew out windows.

St Petersburg Governor Alexander Beglov said "an incident" had taken place in the eastern district of Krasnogvardeysky.

There were no casualties, but residents were evacuated from their apartments, Beglov said, without explaining the cause of the incident or its nature.

Russian media outlets reported it could have been caused by a downed Ukrainian drone, which was heading towards a nearby fuel depot, according to the Reuters news agency.

There has been no official confirmation of this from the Kremlin or state media.

Meanwhile in Ukraine, authorities said two people were killed and a further eight were wounded after a Russian drone crashed into an apartment block in the southern port city of Odesa on Saturday.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68455874

Dargo

03-02-24, 08:32 AM

Meine Fresse. Meine Fresse... :dead:

https://www-focus-de.translate.goog/politik/ausland/ukraine-krise/wer-steckt-wirklich-dahinter-die-wichtigsten-fragen-und-antworten-zum-abgehoerten-taurus-gespraech_id_259722311.html?_x_tr_sl=de&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de

Highly sensitive data via an unsecured cell phone from Singapore. A telephpone conference on sensitive issues via an unsecured comnet. Are there really only amateurs and dilettantes left in Germany's top management?This not only a personal security fault (or does this person with the phone wants to transmit it to the Kremlin) but a security system-wide fault none there prestent followed the rules.The internal discussion between several high-ranking Air Force officers about the possible delivery of the Taurus weapons system to Ukraine took place via the WebEx platform - instead of via a secure, encrypted connection. WebEx is considered easy to intercept.

In addition, at least one of the participants was in Singapore during the meeting and probably used his cell phone to take part in the meeting, reports “ Spiegel ”.
I have more secure communications than the bundeswehr it is not high technology to conduct encrypted communication.

Dargo

03-02-24, 09:03 AM

Posthumously, Navalny creates biggest political rally in Russia in years. The Kremlin initially did not want to release the body of opposition politician Navalny, much less a public funeral. Yet Navalny's funeral Friday became Russia's largest political event in years, with an unexpectedly large number of Russians coming to pay their last respects to him. Hours in advance, they lined up for the funeral of the man who has been the greatest threat to President Putin's omnipotence for the past decade. The large turnout underscores the fact that there is still much opposition to Putin. Several thousand visitors, of course, are not even that many people, given the sheer size of Russia. But we are no longer living in 2012 or even 2022, when demonstrating was easier than now. Russians in recent years have been arrested and even jailed for much smaller offences than shouting slogans.

It is thanks to Navalny's mother Lyudmila that there was any public ceremony at all. She complained of being pressured in recent weeks to accept a secret ceremony, for intimates only, or an anonymous burial in a mass grave in the penal colony. She then made that intimidation public, the authorities must have thought afterwards: we are not going to take this risk. Paying a last salute to a dead person is extremely important according to Christian morality in Russia. If the authorities had refused to do so, they would probably have suffered more trouble than they would have on Friday. Once the authorities had given in to Navalny's mother's demand to release his body, they also had to accept that it would become a demonstration of sorts. What helped Navalny's supporters in this regard is that the funeral was also a Christian ceremony. It looks very bad if you start cracking down on that. I am convinced that the police were instructed to restrain themselves.

As far as we know, no one was arrested around Navalny's funeral in Moscow. Elsewhere in Russia, however, people were arrested, reports human rights organization OVD-Info (https://en.ovdinfo.org/). These would have been mostly people who wanted to lay flowers at monuments to the victims of Soviet repression. The fact that there was no police intervention around the funeral, however, does not mean that participants need not worry about the consequences. It is quite conceivable that participants could be tracked down through video footage and still be searched at home by the police. Nor does the large turnout mean that serious opposition to Putin is still possible, at this point. They have no hope of achieving anything in the upcoming presidential election, and not much says about the opposition as an organized movement. After all, there is none. But today's turnout does say something about the covert mood in Russia. It's good to be reminded again that you shouldn't lump all Russians together, they are not either fully supportive of Putin and his war or opposed to it. According to many polls, Russians are not very much in favour of the war. Nor are they against it, but they look away. A small group of Russians is openly against the war, but even they look away from making that known in the streets. That mood, that the war must end, it does increase. Many people have taken advantage of this ceremony to make this known indirectly.

Blush of flowers on Navalny grave grows, Russian opposition leader also remembered elsewhere. Flowers continue to be laid at Aleksey Navalny's grave in Moscow this morning. This morning, his mother returned under police escort to the Borisov cemetery in the southeastern part of the capital to mourn her son. She was accompanied by Navalny's mother-in-law. Together they set bowls of food at the grave and watched as people laid flowers. Flowers were also laid elsewhere in Russia and other countries in memory of the opposition leader who died in a penal camp two weeks ago. At least 91 people (https://twitter.com/ovdinfo_en/status/1763645578397778346) were arrested in Russia yesterday who wanted to honour Navalny, according to human rights organization OVD-Info.

Skybird

03-02-24, 09:09 AM

Dargo

03-02-24, 09:13 AM

The door-kicking will take place when the cameras of the world have turned elsewhere again. Every face has been recorded by the FSB, you can bet money on that. They did not just made statements about Navalny, but also against the war, which is against the law and under punishment in fascist Russia.
Nobody will be forgotten. Nobody will be forgiven.Yes this means visits by the FSB getting notice you have to report to the army or arrest and sentences more than 10 year Gulag. Yep Gulag is back not so effective as under Stalin, more like when Lenin ordered them to be created for his terror on the people.Who ever disagree is against us and need to disappear.

Russia sets the pace in Ukraine for now: 'War is going to last a long time'While the Ukrainian army struggles with shortages of ammunition and men, Russia continues to attack. Analysts expect the Russian military to continue to slowly advance the front line in the coming months. It has the resources and military to sustain this pressure, albeit at a high price, for now. Russian President Putin boasted in his annual speech to parliament this week that his country is stronger than ever, both economically and militarily. "It's not the polished army he thought he would have at the 2022 invasion," said Russia expert Mark Galeotti. "But we have to recognize that Russia probably has an advantage in Ukraine this year."

Despite heavy sanctions, Russia's production of missiles and artillery ammunition has surged, writes British think tank RUSI (https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/russian-military-objectives-and-capacity-ukraine-through-2024), to which Galeotti is affiliated. The recruitment of new military personnel allows the invasion force to continue to attack in small groups. "This year is Putin's chance," says Galeotti, "before the West can get its ammunition production in order by 2025. Only, I don't think anyone has the capacity for a major offensive for now." Ukraine's main objectives for now are to strengthen, inflict losses on Russian forces, and hold out until more equipment and ammunition arrives from the West. The country likes to point to its successes in the Black Sea. It is waiting for another opportunity for a counterattack. This time with F-16s from European countries like the Netherlands. But it will be a big challenge from the Ukrainian perspective, says analyst Riley Bailey. He contributes daily updates on developments on the front lines for the U.S. think tank Institute for the Study of War. "Ukraine has very difficult decisions to make in the coming months. Including how many people and weapons it deploys to frustrate the Russian advance, which is crucial." Constantly defending costs a lot of effort and also comes at the expense of future strike power, Bailey explains. There is also the mobilization issue in Ukraine. The government is applying more force to deal with the urgent shortage of military personnel.

Russia currently reportedly has some 470,000 military personnel in occupied Ukrainian territory. That is more than 100,000 more than a year ago, according to think tank RUSI. Russia's army leadership has learned from the many mistakes in the first phase of the war. To reduce losses, attack groups are now much smaller and tanks are mostly kept behind. Depleted units are relieved more quickly, experts explain. This allows the Russian army to keep pressing at the front. On the other hand, there is scepticism, because can Russia sustain the current pace in the long term? There are also indications that the war industry will find it difficult to scale up further, for example, due to labour shortages. In any case, the course of a war is difficult to predict because there are so many variables. "Currently, we see the Russians gradually gaining ground," says analyst Bailey. "They are not major breakthroughs, but they have the initiative. The Russian military determines where to fight and the pace." According to him and other analysts, Russia still loses relatively large numbers of soldiers in these attacks, but hard figures are not available. It is estimated that for every Ukrainian soldier killed, two to three Russians were killed, Galeotti said. But Russia's population is more than three times that of Ukraine, he adds. Bailey and Galeotti agree that the battle is likely to go on for a long time. For Ukraine, everything depends on Western allies: without their support, winning is seen as impossible. "Even if the equipment comes in, there is no automatic counteroffensive," Bailey says. "And probably no counteroffensive will completely end the Russian campaign." https://nos.nl/collectie/13965/artikel/2511066-rusland-bepaalt-voorlopig-het-tempo-in-oekraine-oorlog-gaat-nog-lang-duren

Ukraine must make do with wooden-rope equipment from the WestIs Western aid to Kyiv tailored to the war that is actually being fought? Experts see Russia reclaiming the initiative and Ukraine not getting what it needs. "Give us wings to protect freedom," insisted the Ukrainian pilot's helmet that President Volodymyr Zelensky presented as a gift to British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak in London last year. The long discussions on providing modern tanks were just over, although the first Leopard had yet to arrive in Ukraine. But tank formations can hardly do without air superiority, and now Zelensky came begging the West to expedite delivery of fighter jets as well. Ukrainian pilots are now training in Romania with the F-16s that the Netherlands and Denmark finally pledged, but they won't be active over Ukraine until the summer, it seems. Meanwhile, the war is going sharply differently than the West hoped as recently as last year. Russian tank trenches and minefields proved an insurmountable obstacle for Ukraine, which is now on the defensive itself. From a "war of movement," the battle has now become more of a "war of position" with firmer positions. In retrospect, smart drones and electronic warfare and demining equipment might have been of more value to Kyiv than tanks.

And it was also foreseeable, conclude three American experts in a study for the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), a British defense think tank. Weathering the storm; Western security aid on the defensive, it is tellingly called. "At the heart of the problem is the tendency for Western aid to reflect the war Western policymakers and planners would like to fight, rather than the war Ukrainian forces are fighting," the study says. The most glaring example of wishful thinking was the long-awaited Ukrainian summer offensive, for which thousands of Ukrainian soldiers had been trained in England and Bavaria with Western equipment and according to NATO methods, with the West "pressuring Kyiv to get results with the tens of billions in military aid." Showing someone off with a new tank in Bavaria's GrafenwÃ¶hr - the largest US Army training ground in Europe - is one thing. "But a well-oiled operation of a large formation of tanks and armored infantry in a war situation, the [Western] combined arms model in which the Ukrainians underwent a crash course, is something else again," said Brigadier General Han Bouwmeester, a former staff officer at NATO and now a professor of military-operational science at the Netherlands Defense Academy. American generals would have preferred that Ukraine begin its offensive as early as spring and concentrate it on one point rather than attack across a broad front later, a reconstruction by The Washington Post revealed late last year. The question is whether it would have made a difference, RUSI researchers believe. The Russians, while worse trained and armed, were "well entrenched." Unlike Ukraine, Russia had plenty of attack aircraft and helicopters. And, decisively, so many observation drones that Ukraine could never prepare an attack undetected. As a result, the researchers write, "the offensive was doomed to failure from the start."

Two years after the beginning of Russia's "special military operation," Ukraine is struggling with severe ammunition shortages and war fatigue, and must watch with allies as the Russians have taken the initiative this winter. After the recent conquest of Avdiivka, Putin sees no reason to give his troops a rest; he seems intent on taking maximum advantage of Ukraine's weakened position due to faltering Western arms supplies. Kyiv's European allies would like to supply, but do not (yet) have the ammunition; the U.S. does, but Republicans there are obstructive. But what Ukraine receives in military support is thus not always what it needs, RUSI experts conclude after talking to hundreds of military planners and commanders in Ukraine and Kyiv's allies. A Ukrainian colonel cited as an example late last year that his troops can do significantly more damage to Russian tanks with a hundred kamikaze drones at two thousand dollars each than with one Javelin anti-tank missile - which is a hundred times more expensive than one such drone. The Javelins were a wonder weapon at the beginning of the war, but Russian tanks now operate more circumspectly; attack drones have radically changed the battlefield. On the front lines, Ukrainian soldiers feel daily the difference between their needs and what they are given. There, they are simply concerned with sufficient shells for their howitzers and mortars. Not about cruise missiles and sophisticated anti-aircraft systems that protect Ukrainian cities - relatively stunningly effective. Ukrainian front units even rely on volunteers or non-governmental organizations. In part through social media, these raise money to buy SUVs that can handle Ukrainian mud, energy bars, combat clothing, medicines, bandages, night vision goggles, drones or candles for the trenches. "We are doing what NATO should be doing," Rima Ziuraitiene, director of the NGO Blue/Yellow Ukraine told platform War on the Rocks last year. One NGO, Come Back Alive, even bought mortar shells.

From a NATO point of view, the difference between what Ukraine is getting and what it needs is easily explained, says Brigadier General Bouwmeester. "The Americans designed the Air-Land Battle concept in the Cold War, where all their weapons systems were coordinated to achieve maximum efficiency against the huge conventional force they saw behind the Iron Curtain. That requires a technologically advanced armed force. In the West, you have that." But in Ukraine, far from it. True, it has organized its armed forces increasingly Western since independence, but the equipment is still largely Soviet-made. Since the 2014 invasion of Crimea, Ukraine has been switching gears at an accelerated pace. But since the Feb. 24, 2022 invasion, it has been denied precisely weapons that are crucial for "NATO-style" operations. Like long-range missiles that can hit the Russian war machine far behind the lines, or fighter jets that can shoot down Russian bombers. Moreover, the Western arsenal that Kyiv does have at its disposal is of an unreal colorful composition. According to Bouwmeester, it involves as many as six hundred different systems, from infantry fighting vehicles, anti-aircraft, tanks, guns, artillery, mortars, each with its own ammunition and from different countries. "Everything works differently and each system has its own logistics chain," says Bouwmeester. "Even the Leopard tank; almost every country has its own version." Amid mounting ammunition shortages, Ukrainian frontline soldiers and maintenance technicians just have to deal with it.

On top of that, the RUSI experts say with a sense of understatement, many Western weapons are not top-of-the-line. Like the 31 U.S. Abrams tanks. Ukraine received an older and "stripped down" version, to prevent modern technology from falling into Russian hands. The Bradley infantry fighting vehicles were far from ready to start after arrival. And of the howitzers and machine guns delivered, many should have been rejected before export. Bouwmeester: "And then spare parts were often lacking as well. "Repairing battlefield damage then becomes woodwork." Taken together, it underscores what Zelensky has been saying for some time: the West provides enough to keep Ukraine from losing, but too little to let it win. Or as Gabrielius Landsbergis, the Lithuanian foreign minister, said on X this week, "We tell how far we want to go ourselves, but do not draw a red line for Russia. We publicly tie our hands but leave Putin free to destroy, pillage and rape. [...] Time to change course." Still, there was hope that even without air superiority, Ukraine would break through Russian lines in at least one place. "They tried," Bouwmeester says. "But they figured out pretty quickly that with that mishmash of resources they couldn't fight the type of battle the Americans had wanted."

Putin's army is known as a cumbersome machine that relies on mass - firepower and physical exhaustion of the opponent, regardless of its own losses. But the war in Ukraine has shown that the Russians do adapt to changing circumstances. For example, they quickly copied the smart Ukrainian drones that collect intelligence and drop explosives. The Russians now probably produce more drones than Ukraine. This also includes 'land drones' that transport weapons and ammunition and can shoot. Russia is also making great strides in electronic warfare, a traditional specialty. In this way, it can better disrupt Ukrainian communications and Â– as it turned out last year Â– divert 'smart' GPS-guided artillery shells away from their target. It also caused numerous Ukrainian drones to crash out of control in recent months by blocking communications with the operator. According to a previous RUSI study, the Russians could sometimes take control of Ukrainian drones. In January this year, Ukrainian forces discovered another Russian invention: a brand new command and control system that uses AI to detect and jam enemy radars and radio signals on its own, potentially from hundreds of kilometers away. That was destroyed, by the way.

The West must also adapt to the changing force field, writes RUSI. In part, this comes down to what Russia did before: digging in behind minefields. And arm yourself against drones. As the then commander of the Ukrainian armed forces, General Valery Zaluzhny, argued last year in The Economist: innovation in drones and improvement of electronic warfare are a prerequisite for the West to force a breakthrough. The American experts predict that Ukraine will have to deploy Â“about ten thousand drones every week.Â” These are drones that - thanks to AI - can operate autonomously, that are invulnerable to electronic jammers, and that have sufficient firepower to destroy enemy lines - although drones of the latter type probably do not yet exist. Bouwmeester thinks that Ukraine's allies will not deliver such innovations - given the sensitivity of the technology and the conservative attitude so far. Â“The know-how in the field of AI is still in its infancy. The Americans are already afraid that a tank will fall into Russian hands, after which it will be completely dismantled. That is one of the reasons that Ukraine gets the basic configuration of everything, not with the full on-board computers and communication systems. You will also see this with AI and new drones.Â”

Ukraine will mainly rely on its own proven innovative capacity and efficiency, which, according to British defense specialist Phillips O'Brien, is three times higher than that of the Russians. Ukraine manages to have a major impact with limited resources; the large number of Russian naval vessels sunk in the Black Sea testifies to this. As does the recent spike in the number of crashed Russian fighters and other aircraft, which Â– although a conclusive explanation is still lacking Â– cannot be solely the result of friendly fire, as Russian military bloggers insist. What the West can now mainly help Ukraine with, according to the RUSI researchers, is a rapid adjustment of the "dated Western way of training" according to the unfeasible combined arms method in which all parts must work together seamlessly. "This means that Western trainers and advisors instruction programs must be continuously updated in view of the actual war situation in which Ukrainian soldiers find themselves. [...] Current Western efforts to train the Ukrainian armed forces are inadequate, and come too late,Â” the experts said.https://www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2024/03/02/oekraine-moet-het-rooien-met-houwtje-touwtje-materieel-uit-het-westen-a4191838

Jimbuna

03-02-24, 01:50 PM

Zelensky appeals to West over deadly Russian drone attack on Odesa

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had called on Western allies to deliver more air defence systems after at least seven people were killed in a Russian drone strike on Odesa.

A three-month-old baby and a three-year-old child were among the victims of the overnight strike on Ukraine's southern city, local officials said.

"Russia continues to wage war on civilians," President Zelensky said.

Russian troops have recently made gains in Ukraine which faces arms shortages.

Last month, Moscow took control of the key eastern town of Avdiivka.

Ukraine's commander-in-chief has signalled he will replace some military leaders on the eastern front.

In a post on Telegram on Saturday, Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko said a nine-storey building had been destroyed as a result of "an attack by Russian terrorists" in Odesa.

Footage from the scene showed that several floors of a residential building had been destroyed.

The death toll has risen steadily throughout the day, as rescuers pulled out more bodies from the rubble.

At least seven people are now confirmed to have been killed and another eight injured. But a number of people are still unaccounted for, and there are fears the death toll will rise further.

Separately, Ukrainian officials said one person had been killed in the north-eastern Kharkiv region near the Russian border and another in the southern Kherson region.

In a post on social media, Mr Zelensky said: "We need more air defences from our partners. We need to strengthen the Ukrainian air shield to add more protection for our people from Russian terror. More air defence systems and more missiles for air defence systems saves lives."

Ukraine's air force said it had downed 14 or 17 drone launched by Russia overnight.

Russian forces have has launched thousands of Iranian-made drones at Ukrainian targets since they invaded Ukraine over two years ago.

In retaliation Ukraine has targeted Russian sites, notably oil facilities.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68455874

mapuc

03-02-24, 02:43 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Zwe3hgMD8M&ab_channel=CombatVeteranReacts

Markus

Skybird

03-02-24, 03:39 PM

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68457087

The story develops to become a Super-GAU for Germany, a super-worst-case-of-accident. The chief of the German Luftwaffe was set to become a very-high-ranking NATO military chief next year. I think that goal has been fumed up in a pipe now. Just days ago Babble-Olaf upset Paris and London about hinting in a public speech at their military personnel participating in the Ukrainian war by implying they have troops in the country that codes the target data into their missiles. Now this. And the German reputation of being security-wise very unreliable already existed and was a strong suspicion before, a request by Germany to become member of the Five-Eyes-Club has been rejected by all five member states some years ago. Lets face it, the rputaiton of the German intel services is - lousy, to put it mildy. The socialists have also tried to turn them into an exclusive anti-right policing force. And laws bind both their hands on their backs, ruling that wire tappoing and overhearing other country's services and officials shall not be done, never. If you wodner why all anti-terror operaitons inside Germany are beign always triggered by hitns form forign services, emnver by German detective work - now you know why. The german services have been crippled to impotence.

The conversation also revealed that between 100 and 200 Taurus could be delivered, and that Scholz' lie about that they would require German specialists being sent to ukraine, was right that: another of his many lies. Finally the Germans also said that a destruction of the Kerch bridge would require more Taurus missiles than is usually assumed in media and public debate.

The timing fo the Russians to reveal this intel coup points at the close Russian elections, is meant to mobilise voters for Putin by showing Russians that their old enemy, the evil Germans, is back. It also seems to show that the Russians really fear the Taurus and want to prevent its delivery at all cost - by intimidating fearsome Scholz once again, who easily fell for Russian intimidation from beginning on of this war.

The German officers in that conversation confirmed assessments that Taurus nevertheless would and could not be a war-deciding weapon.

There was speculation that maybe a Western intel service has leaked this info, to make Germany comply with demands to deliver Taurus by showing that Scholz had told lies about the need to send German troops along with it. And this on a day when a few media printed a suspicion that the local residents of the island of Rügen in the Baltic Sea have, about the Green economy destruction minister Habeck enforcing the building of an LNG terminal there despite its capacity apparently not being needed: people think and claim he does so because even the Greens have realised that their high-flying energy transformation plans have collapsed and cannot be realissed the way they planned it - and they therefore want to accept the import of Russian gas again in the future, after the war "ended". I dont say this is true, I can imagine it is and dont rule it out, but dont know whether it is true. But it illustrates to what degree the climate and public opinion has turned against the government over here. This is a new experience for the Greens: to have strong wind frontally into the face and rightout hate being thrown at them from all camps of the population.
Well.
My heart is bleeding.

Dargo

03-02-24, 05:18 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lPz2hcKstzQ

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YBbLfwQfTXI

Dargo

03-02-24, 05:47 PM

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68457087

The story develops to become a Super-GAU for Germany, a super-worst-case-of-accident... [SNIP]
Well.
My heart is bleeding.Germany has a long history of security fails with spies in high ranks or in top echelons of the economical and political elite Germany has not been taking security seriously for a long time.

Jimbuna

03-03-24, 07:25 AM

Ukraine’s troops are rationing ammunition. Yet House Republicans plan to take weeks to mull more aid

WASHINGTON (AP) — Ukrainian drones fly without ammunition. Russian artillery unleash deadly volleys from safe positions beyond the range of Kyiv’s troops. Shortages of ammo and supplies are resulting in lost ground to Moscow, U.S. congressional leaders warn, yet the Republican-controlled House has shown little hurry to resupply Ukraine with military aid.

Across Washington, officials are viewing the drop-off in ammunition shipments with increasing alarm. It’s now been over two months since the U.S. — which since World War II has fashioned itself as the “Arsenal of Democracy” — last sent military supplies to Ukraine.

But House Speaker Mike Johnson appears determined to chart his own course away from a $95 billion foreign aid package passed by the Senate — a decision that could stall the package for weeks to come after an already arduous months-long wait in Congress.

With U.S. military shipments cut off, Ukrainian troops withdrew from the eastern city of Avdiivka last month, where outnumbered defenders had withheld a Russian assault for four months. Delays in military support from the West are complicating the task for Kyiv’s military tacticians, forcing troops to ration ammunition and ultimately costing the lives of Ukrainian soldiers.

“If Ukraine gets the aid they will win. If they don’t get the aid they will lose — with dire consequences to the United States,” said Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, who visited Ukraine last week.

Defense officials are discussing options, which include possibly tapping existing stockpiles even before Congress approves funding to replenish them, according to Sen. Jack Reed, the chair of the Senate Armed Services Committee. And at a White House meeting this week, President Joe Biden, the two top Democrats in Congress and Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell all took turns intensely urging Johnson to take up a Senate-passed package that would provide $60 billion worth of assistance for Kyiv.

So far, the Republican speaker has refused.

The Louisiana Republican — just four months into the powerful job as speaker, second in the line to the presidency — is under intense pressure from all sides. The leaders of 23 European parliaments have signed an open letter urging him to pass the aid. And within his own House ranks, senior Republicans are growing restive at the inaction, even as other far-right members have threatened to try to remove him from leadership if he advances the aid for Kyiv.

“The House is actively considering options on a path forward, but our first responsibility is to fund the government and our primary, overriding responsibility — and it has been for the last three years — has been to secure the border,” Johnson said at a news conference.

Johnson responded to the pressure on Ukraine by saying the House had only received the funding legislation in mid-February after the Senate took four months to negotiate, including enforcement policies at the U.S.-Mexico border. The deal on border security swiftly collapsed after Republicans, including Johnson, criticized the proposal as insufficient. Yet Johnson and other House Republicans are once again hoping to secure some policy wins on border security.

When Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visited Congress late last year, he told Johnson that the military aid would last into February. But as Congress entered March, Johnson so far has allowed House members to craft their own proposals and revealed little on his plans for the package.

“We’re beyond the time frame that this should have taken, this analysis and careful consideration by the House should have been completed before the end of the year or very shortly after the new year,” said Rep. French Hill, an Arkansas Republican.

Hill and several other senior Republicans are pressing Johnson to act by crafting a new national security package in the House. That bill, which is being drafted by Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Michael McCaul and key appropriators, is expected to come in less than the $95 billion Senate package but include many similar provisions — including money that Ukraine, Israel and Indo-Pacific allies could use to purchase U.S. military equipment, as well as some humanitarian assistance.

It may also include a version of the Rebuilding Economic Prosperity and Opportunity for Ukrainians, or REPO Act, which would allow the U.S. to tap frozen Russian central bank assets to compensate Ukraine for damages from the invasion, Hill said. He said it would save taxpayer dollars in the long run and help gain Republican votes in the House.

“This is more a matter of finding out the way to move forward,” said seasoned Rep. Tom Cole, R-Okla., the chairman of the Rules committee. “But a substantial majority of both houses of Congress wants to help Ukraine. You had 70 over there,” he said about the robust Senate support, “and the vote here will be well north of 300.”

Rep. Annie Kuster of New Hampshire, who leads a caucus of centrist Democrats called New Dems, said many in her party are ready to help Johnson pass a military aid package if he brings it to the floor. But she said the bill already passed by the Senate would have the broadest support.

“We’re at a critical moment right now, and I encourage Speaker Johnson to work with us,” Kuster said. “He has such a slim majority.”

Meanwhile, any decision by the Pentagon to send Ukraine weapons before Congress approves funding is fraught with risk. Since there is no money to replenish the equipment and weapons sent, the military would be depleting its stockpiles and potentially risking harm to unit readiness for war.

In addition, there are worries that action from the Pentagon could dissuade Congress from moving quickly on the funding bill.

Reed said it would make more sense for Congress to pass the supplemental package, because then the Pentagon “could immediately order the equipment they’re drawing down. We run the risk without that of drawing down the equipment and not being able to replace it or being confident of replacement.”

But he added, “There might be circumstances where the president would decide to ship equipment like ATACMS, even though it would be a difficult judgment.”

The U.S. has sent medium-range ATACMS (Army Tactical Missile Systems) as well as HIMARS (High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems). But there has been pressure for the U.S. to send longer-range ATACMS. The U.S. has resisted out of concerns Moscow would consider them escalatory, since they could reach deeper into Russia and Russian-held territory.

Ukrainian leaders, however, could use the longer-range missiles to disrupt Russian supply lines — a capability that is seen as essential as Russian President Vladimir Putin looks to surge more troops this spring.

Ukraine also has made it clear that its forces also need additional artillery, including 155 mm howitzer rounds, as well as air defense ammunition.

Ukrainian officials have expressed confidence they can withstand a Russian offensive for several more months, said Shelby Magid, deputy director of the Eurasia Center at the Atlantic Council, which advocates for American cooperation with Europe. Yet she added that the Pentagon’s consideration of using drawdown authority sent a somber message that officials view the conflict as having direct implications for U.S. national security.

Some are warning that if Congress fails to provide the aid, U.S. troops will next be called on to help defend NATO allies.

Schumer said that during his trip to Ukraine, “One leading American said to me if we don’t get the aid, Russian tanks could be at the Polish border by December.”
https://apnews.com/article/congress-ukraine-resupply-aid-republicans-53db93c5db8ab249503e93b558da5bd8

Jimbuna

03-03-24, 08:04 AM

Everything you need to know about Russia’s 2024 presidential election

Russia’s 2024 presidential election isn’t expected to bring change to the Kremlin.

With most opposition figures either in jail or abroad and many independent media outlets blocked, the Kremlin maintains tight control over the country’s political system. March’s vote is all but guaranteed to see President Vladimir Putin, 71, cement his place in power until at least 2030.

Nonetheless, the election is set to be closely watched by those looking for insight into Russia’s political machinations, as well as opinions across wider Russian society just over two years since Moscow launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Who can vote in Russia’s 2024 presidential election?

Any Russian citizen over the age of 18 who is not serving time in prison can vote in the country’s presidential election. In February 2024, Russia’s central election committee said that some 112.3 million people were eligible to vote in Russia and Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine. A further 1.9 million Russians living abroad are also eligible to vote, it said.

Turnout in Russia’s last presidential election in 2018 stood at 67.54% though observers and individual voters reported widespread violations including ballot-box stuffing and forced voting. In the country’s 2021 parliamentary, election turnout was 51.7%.

How does voting work in Russia’s 2024 presidential election?

Voting in Russia and in the annexed regions of Ukraine will largely be carried out at polling stations over three days between March 15-17. It is the first presidential election in Russia when polls will be open for three days instead of one.

Russian officials first employed multiple-day voting in the 2020 referendum Putin orchestrated to push a constitutional reform that would allow him to run for two more terms. However, this will be the first time that multi-day voting will be used in a presidential vote.

It will also be the first presidential election in which voters can cast ballots online, with e-voting rolled out across 29 regions.

Independent election observers widely criticized stretching the vote for several days and allowing online voting, saying they were tactics to further hinder the transparency of the balloting process. Opposition groups in 2021 said digital votes in the country’s parliamentary elections showed signs of manipulation.

The vote will also take place in Crimea, which Moscow annexed from Ukraine in 2014, and the four regions in the southeast of the country that Russia annexed after launching the full-scale invasion in 2022 — even though the Russian forces don’t fully control either of the four. The decision to hold the vote there was denounced by Kyiv and the West.

Early voting has already kicked off in some regions, and will be gradually rolled out in others as well.

Who is running in the Russia’s 2024 presidential election?

Russian President Vladimir Putin will be running in the election as an independent candidate. He is all but certain to secure his fifth term while facing a trio of token contenders.

The other candidates nominated by Kremlin-friendly parties represented in parliament are Nikolai Kharitonov of the Communist Party, Leonid Slutsky of the nationalist Liberal Democratic Party, and Vladislav Davankov of the New People Party. Kharitonov previously ran against Putin in 2004, finishing a distant second.

They broadly support the Kremlin and its policies, including the invasion of Ukraine. Previous elections have shown such candidates are unlikely to get enough votes to mount a real challenge to Putin. In the 2018 presidential vote, the Communist party runner-up secured 11.8% of the vote, compared to Putin’s 76.7%.

Meanwhile, most of the opposition figures who might have challenged Putin have been either imprisoned or exiled abroad. Last week, Russia’s best-known opposition leader Alexei Navalny, whose attempt to run against Putin in 2018 was rejected, suddenly died in prison while serving a 19-year sentence on extremism charges.

Why is Russia’s 2024 presidential election important?

Many commentators, as well as Russia’s largely scattered opposition, describe the election as a plebiscite on the war in Ukraine that Putin launched two years ago.

Abbas Gallyamov, a political analyst who used to be Putin’s speechwriter, has described the vote as one where “multiple choice is replaced with a simple, dichotomic one: ‘Are you for or against Putin?’ and has said that it will be a ”referendum on the issue of the war, and a vote for Putin will become a vote for the war.”

The opposition views the vote as an opportunity to demonstrate the scale of discontent with Putin and the war. Shortly before his unexpected and still unexplained death, Navalny called on voters to go to the polls at noon on March 17 and form long lines.

“Putin views these elections as a referendum on approval of his actions. Referendum on approval of the war,” Navalny said in a statement passed on from behind bars, shortly before his death. “Let’s break his plans and make sure that on March 17 no one is interested in the fake result, but all of Russia saw and understood: the will of the majority is that Putin must leave.”

Will Russia’s 2024 presidential election be free and fair?

Observers who follow Russia’s 2024 presidential election have little hope the vote will be free and fair. Activists reported practices such as forced voting during the country’s 2021 parliamentary election, with videos on social media showing ballots being stuffed into voting boxes.

During the country’s last presidential election in 2018, an International Election Observation Mission from the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) described the vote as lacking genuine competition, and marred by “continued pressure on critical voices.”

In the years that followed, the country’s parliament has introduced increasingly oppressive legislation clamping down on free speech. The vast majority of independent Russian media outlets have been banned and anyone found guilty of spreading what the government deems to be “deliberately false information” about the country’s invasion of Ukraine can be imprisoned for up to 15 years.
https://apnews.com/article/russia-presidential-election-2024-what-to-know-04a363dd56d4b3f15d3048ed8585fe55

mapuc

03-03-24, 09:27 AM

Here is what I think is going to happen after Putin win the election.

He will declare war on Ukraine and thereby open up for massive mobilization.

Markus

Skybird

03-03-24, 10:33 AM

Here is what I think is going to happen after Putin win the election.

He will declare war on Ukraine and thereby open up for massive mobilization.

Markus
+1 .

Skybird

03-03-24, 11:08 AM

https://www-focus-de.translate.goog/politik/ausland/ukraine-krise/ex-cia-mann-entsetzt-deutsche-spione-belehren-lieber-als-anderen-zuzuhoeren_id_259724634.html?_x_tr_sl=de&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de

That German spies are seen as blasée and arrogant by other Western intel agencies, I knew. That he claims the others see the Germans as potentially potent and would like to increase cooperation with them, is surprising to me. That he says Five Eyes would love to have the Germans aboard but that the Germans were the ones who refused membership, is by 180° a reverse narration than the one I recall: Germany appealed for membership and all members of Five Eyes rejected the Germans due to their notorious inherent security problems.

What is not being reflected is that in recent years more and more laws have forbidden German intel agencies more and more activities that are vital for collecting any useful intel at all, or conducting counter espionage. It has mostly been banned and verboten, due to overboarding political correctness. The current socialist interior minster als wants to use her term to turn the whole apparatus into an exclusive suppressive powertool to gag the political conservative and right, while not caring for left-winged political violence and Islamic violence. Even investigating clan crime is being seen as practiced racism - even speaking of clan crime is called racism.

I think the ex-CIA man has a very strange view of the German services, and he sees them as much better than they are. They are politically gagged. And practically all terror plots that got spoiuled in the past twnety years in germany have been spiled due to forejg servioces putting the Ger,mans on track. Without this foreign help, we would have seen a wave of successfully carried out terror strikes the German, if left to themselves, would not have been able to learn about while they had still time.

Thank you, foreign services! We owe you more than just one beer.

What the Germans were good in, is to have contacts to all sides in the Middle East, this allowing them to initiate opening contacts between varipous parties and sides. For this ability they were - probbaly correctly - respected in the 80s and 90s. I have no idea however if this still is the case. As I see it form media reports iof the past 20 years, the German services in general have suffered tremendously in competence and ability. But that is no qualified judgement, just my personal subjective and media-based opinion. Secrecy is their business, so what can we know...

mapuc

03-03-24, 11:30 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wZ2G1Wfu2xs&ab_channel=CombatVeteranReacts

Markus

Jimbuna

03-03-24, 01:04 PM

Russia to cut oil output, exports by additional 471,000 bpd in Q2

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russia will cut oil production and exports by an additional 471,000 barrels per day (bpd) in the second quarter of 2024 in coordination with some OPEC+ participating countries, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on Sunday.

Of that, the country will reduce oil production by additional 350,000 bpd while exports will be cut by 121,000 bpd in April. In May, the additional oil output cut will stand at 400,000 bpd and exports at 71,000 bpd. In June, all the additional cuts will be from oil output, Novak said.

The export cut will be made from the average export levels of the months of May and June of 2023, he added.

"This additional voluntary cut comes to reinforce the precautionary efforts made by OPEC Plus countries with the aim of supporting the stability and balance of oil markets," Novak said in a statement.
Russia had previously agreed to voluntarily reduce oil and fuel exports by 500,000 bpd in the first quarter, in addition to voluntary cuts of output by the same scale until the end of 2024.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/russia-to-cut-oil-output-exports-by-additional-471-000-bpd-in-q2/ar-BB1jga2I?ocid=msedgntp&pc=U531&cvid=9339220715d146d1a7d77cfc47e8c184&ei=24

mapuc

03-03-24, 06:27 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mHXtyXfX5yI&ab_channel=UkraineMatters

Markus

Skybird

03-04-24, 05:56 AM

The situation for Ukrainians' eastern fornt becomes worse and worse while Russia presses the advances on many locations. Ukrainianian soldiers get more and more pessimistic. Colonel Reisner recently said the Russian now attack and slowly make progress along 16 axis of attacks. 6 weeks ago it sitll were 5.

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/03/04/europe/russia-ukraine-vulnerable-defenses-avdiivka-intl/index.html

Later this month a first delivery of a quickly organised ammunition package by the Europeans is expected. The volume of it and the difference it can make remains to be seen. But my guts feeling tells me that in the past months something bigger has broken as if it can just be fixed and the trend quickly reversed by this alone. Putin will beef up the war after Russian elections. Maybe the spring weather can help the Ukrainians to drag the Russians down again. The new Ukrainian supreme commander so far fails to impress. That he recently publicly attacked commanders in the sector west of Avdijivka for their lousy performance and errors while these have to fight with practically no ammunition, leaves a foul taste in the mouth. Thats bad Sovjet general style.

Zelensky's star falls deeper and deeper with his people. His charms and magic in dealing with the West have gone. He cannot overcome the realities of internal western politics. I admit I see him as no longer relevant. He has become dispensable, exchangeable, and he does not want to see it. In fact he has started to become a burden. I give him huge credit for his efficiency PR role in the first 18 months of the war. But, and that is often overseen, already then he has also made several very severe mistakes that costed Ukraine dearly.

It recently got reported that estimations in the west say Russia can continue like this, can continue the war at the current intensity level and loss ratio, for at least another 2-3 years.

The West seems to have no advise for how to win the war. In case of some countries, namely Scholzany, I even doubt they want Ukraine to win. Different to what Bubble Olaf claims I have very very severe doubts that the little man in Berlin has really fully understood what is at stake. Else he would not behave like the hypnotized rabbit before the snake. Parts of his party still want to return to let's-be-buddies-again with Russia like before. And even more and beyond the SPD many seem to be ready to sacrifice Ukraine for their social spending frenzies and green climate agenda deals and policies.

Deeper and deeper into the rabbit hole, hoping that Alice's story on wonders and fantastic worlds was no fairy tale but a fact-based documentary.

As things stand at the moment, Ukraine has no chance of winning back the five occupied oblasts. I don't see any improvement in sight at the moment, not even in the long term. Its economy gets destroyed more and more, its debts mount and mount, its energy grid gets blown into pieces more and more. Not so in Russia, Russian territory is practically completely safe haven.

Its impossible to win a war with Russia this way. It should not have taken two years to learn this. The West must send much, much, much more. Higher quantities, by factors. Longer ranges. Logistics, C3I, traffic networks and powergrids as well as industrial production capacities contributing to the war - all this on Russian soil shall no longer be off the target list. The war must come home to where it was initiated, and it must find and destroy what drives and supports the aggressor'S war. Only then the war can end. And other end necvessarily means a defeat for Ukraine, and biog losses.

Losses that will be at the burden of the rest of Europe. We are talking about trillions. Or one leaves Ukraine alone and behind in the dirt. Well. Thats a way to avoid those costs, too. At another cost: two digit millions of Ukrainians moving westward.

Jimbuna

03-04-24, 08:58 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IkGgpLsSt5Q

Jimbuna

03-04-24, 09:14 AM

Germany says Kremlin's claim it is planning war with Russia is 'absurd'

Germany’s ambassador to Moscow was summoned to the Russian foreign ministry on Monday in order to explain the leaked discussion between senior military personnel about sending weapons to Ukraine.

Alexander Graf Lamsdorff arrived at the foreign ministry without responding to journalists’ requests for comment, according to reports on Russian news agencies.

Germany’s defence minister, Boris Pistorius, has accused Russia of waging “an information war” against Germany, by intercepting and then leaking a sensitive meeting among high-level military officers of the German military or Bundeswehr.

Russia has accused Germany, backed by its allies, of planning an all-out war on Russia.

Russia’s foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, said the leaked discussions showed that the appetite for war in Europe “still remains very very high”, and the aim was to ensure “Russia’s strategic defeat on the battlefield”.

The former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev commented that: “Germany is planning a war with Russia”.

Pistorius dismissed the reactions as: “completely absurd”, accusing Moscow of wanting to sow distrust and discord in Germany.

In the telephone conference, four officers, including the head of Germany’s air force, Ingo Gerhartz, prepare for a discussion with defence minister Pistorius about the possible deployment of Taurus missiles to Ukraine, coming to the conclusion that a speedy delivery and the use of the missiles in the immediate future would only be possible if German soldiers were involved.

Taurus training for Ukrainian soldiers in order to avoid putting German soldiers on Ukraine soil, was a possibility, but would take months of preparation. The officers also discussed the possibility of using the missiles to destroy the Russian-built bridge connecting the illegally annexed Crimean peninsula and Russia.

Last week, Germany’s chancellor, Olaf Scholz, ruled out the sending of Taurus missiles because he said the operation would involve sending German troops to Ukraine. He said: “German soldiers can at no point and in no place be linked with the targets that this (Taurus) system reaches. Not even in Germany.”

As the German government struggles to deal with the fallout from the leak, with questions asked about the security of its internal communications and speculation over what other discussions Russia has been able to listen in on, defence policy experts said the intercepted communication was clearly meant to undermine Germany’s Ukraine strategy.

Roderich Kiesewette, the opposition Christian Democrats’ defence expert, said that Russia had leaked the meeting at this moment in time in order to specifically: “undermine a German Taurus delivery”. He suggested the leak was carried out “in order to divert public conversation away” from other issues, including the death of Alexei Navalny.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/mar/04/russia-ukraine-war-live-nato-military-drills-northern-europe-zelenskiy-putin

Skybird

03-04-24, 09:39 AM

[Tagesspiegel] According to the manufacturer, Russia's latest Armata main battle tank is too expensive for use in the war against Ukraine. "In terms of its functionality, it is far superior to existing tanks, but it is too expensive, which is why the army is unlikely to use it now," Sergei Chemezov, head of the state arms holding Rostec, told the state news agency Ria Novosti on Monday. The Armata T-14 was first presented to the public in 2015 at the military parade in Moscow.

According to media reports, the tank has not yet gone into series production due to various technical problems. According to Chemezov, a close confidant of Russian President Vladimir Putin from their days together as agents in the GDR, the Russian armed forces have since taken the Armata into service. However, the costs are too high for use in Ukraine. "Today we need money to produce new tanks, new weapons, possibly cheaper ones," said Chemezov. It was therefore appropriate to buy cheaper T-90 tanks for the current conflict. The Armata was actually intended to replace the T-90.
--------------------

Reminds me of Western tanks - superior but too expensive to be thrown out of the window in quantities as we see tanks getting killed in Ukraine. Drones have changed everything.

Jimbuna

03-04-24, 09:50 AM

Russian frigate with Kalibr and Tsircon missiles docks in Qatar port: Purpose revealed

The Russian frigate Marshal Shaposhnikov, which carries the Kalibr and Tsircon missiles, has called at the Qatari port of Hamad to participate in the DIMDEX-2024 defense exhibition, according to Interfax.

"A welcoming ceremony for the Russian warship was held at the pier, attended by representatives of the Russian Embassy in Qatar and officers of the host nation's naval forces," the statement says.

The frigate will stay in the port of Qatar for several days, during the exhibition it will be visited by participants and guests of the international event.

The Marshal Shaposhnikov is a Russian Project 1155M frigate that is part of the Russian Navy's Pacific Fleet. During the overhaul in 2016, the ship was equipped with launchers for the Kalibr, Tsirkon, and Oniks missile systems. The modernization was carried out at the Dalzavod Ship Repair Center in Vladivostok. As part of the modernization, hull structures and cable routes were dismantled and remanufactured.
It is noteworthy that the first launches of the Kalibr from the ship after the modernization were unsuccessful. Judging by the most widespread videos, the launched missiles fell into the sea a short distance from the ship.

On September 16, 2023, the frigate was visited by DPRK dictator Kim Jong-un, where he inspected the Kalibr and Uran missile systems.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/russian-frigate-with-kalibr-and-tsircon-missiles-docks-in-qatar-port-purpose-revealed/ar-BB1jhR4G?ocid=msedgntp&pc=U531&cvid=26f2f16670554b1385d9f3481ebb6a5b&ei=55

mapuc

03-04-24, 11:10 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c1O3tXxNdmc&ab_channel=CombatVeteranReacts

Markus

Skybird

03-04-24, 11:32 AM

The German house of cards. If only it would finally collapse. If only. Even many Germans are so very sick and tired of this manling.

https://www-focus-de.translate.goog/politik/ausland/ukraine-krise/analyse-von-ulrich-reitz-scholz-taurus-taktik-ist-nichts-anderes-als-eine-riskante-wette_id_259727719.html?_x_tr_sl=de&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de

Dargo

03-04-24, 12:04 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c1O3tXxNdmc&ab_channel=CombatVeteranReacts

MarkusRussian meat is more economical than protection.

The German house of cards. If only it would finally collapse. If only. Even many Germans are so very sick and tired of this manling.

https://www-focus-de.translate.goog/politik/ausland/ukraine-krise/analyse-von-ulrich-reitz-scholz-taurus-taktik-ist-nichts-anderes-als-eine-riskante-wette_id_259727719.html?_x_tr_sl=de&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=deWhat countries also have the Taurus or ordered them?

[Tagesspiegel] According to the manufacturer, Russia's latest Armata main battle tank is too expensive for use in the war against Ukraine. "In terms of its functionality, it is far superior to existing tanks, but it is too expensive, which is why the army is unlikely to use it now," Sergei Chemezov, head of the state arms holding Rostec, told the state news agency Ria Novosti on Monday. The Armata T-14 was first presented to the public in 2015 at the military parade in Moscow.

According to media reports, the tank has not yet gone into series production due to various technical problems. According to Chemezov, a close confidant of Russian President Vladimir Putin from their days together as agents in the GDR, the Russian armed forces have since taken the Armata into service. However, the costs are too high for use in Ukraine. "Today we need money to produce new tanks, new weapons, possibly cheaper ones," said Chemezov. It was therefore appropriate to buy cheaper T-90 tanks for the current conflict. The Armata was actually intended to replace the T-90.
--------------------

Reminds me of Western tanks - superior but too expensive to be thrown out of the window in quantities as we see tanks getting killed in Ukraine. Drones have changed everything.
The T-14 was for a short period at (behind) the front in Ukraine in the autumn last year, think this test did not go so good. But there is more behind this heard they had problems with this tank before and why build the "best tank in the world" so now war comes along and Russia now says we can't use the T-14 Armata because it's "too expensive" to use in a war and someone might scratch it does not add up.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nQLI8xnINqk

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FozvYM2Zhpw

Skybird

03-04-24, 03:30 PM

What countries also have the Taurus or ordered them?
South Korea.

That it could be used against nuclear armed North Korea and its madman at the top obviously is not causing worries in Berlin. And the South Koreans LOVE their Taurus. Taurus is like Storm Shadow/SCALP - but on steroids.

And I think Spain.

Korea already has Taurus for sure, and wants more, but Spain ordered them, I think, but I am not certain.

Dargo

03-04-24, 03:39 PM

South Korea.

That it could be used against nuclear armed North Korea and its madman at the top obviously is not causing worries in Berlin. And the South Koreans LOVE their Taurus. Taurus is like Storm Shadow/SCALP - but on steroids.

And I think Spain.

Korea already has Taurus for sure, and wants more, but Spain ordered them, I think, but I am not certain.Would suggest those countries to halt their order.

mapuc

03-04-24, 03:55 PM

Hmm Could we in the near future see SK giving some of their Taurus to Ukraine-Breaking an agreement with Germany

I don't know if there is a certain agreement on purchasing these Taurus from Germany

Markus

Jimbuna

03-05-24, 08:26 AM

Ukraine said it has damaged one of Russia's Black Sea Fleet patrol ships and 18 drones from Moscow were shot down over Odesa.

Kyiv's military intelligence (GUR) said on Telegram its special unit "Group 13" attacked Russia's Sergey Kotov near the Kerch Strait in Crimea.

They added "a strike by Magura V5 maritime drones" damaged the ship's "stern, starboard and port sides".

Andriy Yermak, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's chief of staff, also said on Telegram after the attack: "The Russian Black Sea Fleet is a symbol of occupation. It cannot be in the Ukrainian Crimea."

Dargo

03-05-24, 10:56 AM

Russian soldiers who refuse to die on battlefield are tortured or hanged: 'It's hell here'Russian servicemen, mostly released criminals, are indulging in all sorts of atrocities on the front lines in Ukraine against their comrades unwilling to face death. Soldiers report from the front lines torture, mock executions and even a case of hanging. So writes the independent Russian research site Vjorstka. Soldiers who do not allow themselves to be sent into the line of fire are sometimes tied to a tree for days or held captive in a pit in the cold, a habit the Russian military has inherited from the war in Chechnya. The worst abuses occur in the most dangerous places on the front lines, where soldiers are almost permanently under fire and are often not relieved for months. "It is hell here," a Russian soldier reported from the front line near Krynki, a town on the left bank of the Dnipro River where the Russians had been trying to drive out the Ukrainians for months. According to him, one group of soldiers after another was sent forward, almost no one returned. Their unit, he says, was constantly shelled, with the result that the contract soldiers and ex-prisoners went completely berserk. "They know everyone is going to die. That's why they make it hell for the regular guys. They are totally unhinged. They have created their own penal camp here in a literal sense."

Video footage he and other soldiers from his unit forwarded shows a group of soldiers chasing four soldiers naked into a pit for punishment in the freezing cold. One of them gets punched in the face. "And you to the pit, whore, to copulate!" The soldiers then allegedly forced them to rape each other in the pit, laughing as they watched. The 32-year-old soldier Misha Maltsev who forwarded the images to Vjorstka, himself incidentally an ex-prisoner, complained that wounded soldiers were not evacuated, but were patched up and thrown back into battle as quickly as possible. Killed comrades had to be left lying around by their commanders. He himself spent four days in a pit with the corpses of soldiers whose cookies he picked from their pockets to survive. "Whoever opens his mouth is immediately ordered to advance to a place from which you will never return alive," he reported in the video, shortly before he himself would be killed with his unit in an attempt to storm Krynki. Another video from the front lines in Ukraine shows a soldier dangling from a tree, with a garbage bag over his head. "In this world there is no place for cowards," reads a sign hung around his neck. "There you have another deserter," you hear someone say. "That guy really screwed them over." The images allegedly came from the cell phone of a Russian soldier captured by the Ukrainians. Another soldier was tied to a tree for refusing to serve and had to stand there for two days without food or water. Eventually he gave up and agreed to be sent to the front.

Formally, soldiers who refuse an order must be court-martialed, but according to Vjorstka, at the front they are punished by their commanders or lynched by their other soldiers. "At the front, normality is a stretch," the site quotes one soldier, who passes Vjorstka video footage of Wagner mercenaries dealing with soldiers allegedly responsible for the deaths of their comrades. They are beaten with sticks, while their colleagues are forced to dig a deep pit. Another soldier is kicked. Yet another gets the barrel of a machine gun placed against his head. "Enough, forgive me, please," he begs. "Finished, you are already a 200," the Wagner mercenary yells at him. '200' is the Russian code for a fallen soldier. Shots sound in the background, but it is unclear whether anyone is actually being shot. A Russian officer with the airborne troops confirms to Vjorstka that harsh action is sometimes taken against mobilized soldiers, but he says it is necessary in a war. "If you want to maintain discipline, you have to be rock hard on them," he explains. "Do you know how many 500s (deserters, ed.) we had here? If you don't want to go on the attack, you go into the basement. That's the only thing that works!"

Vjorstka's description of the abuses at the front is consistent with earlier complaints from called-up Russian reservists. They, too, reported being threatened by their officers if they refused to be sent into the line of fire without adequate armament or artillery support. According to some reports, there are even special units operating just behind the front lines, ready to shoot fleeing Russian soldiers. It is also common for reservists who were imprisoned in a pit for punishment to have to pay their commanders to be released from it. The Russians also often used that practice during the war in Chechnya, although then it was mostly Chechen men who were imprisoned in the pits to extort ransom from their families. https://www.demorgen.be/oorlog-in-oekraine/russische-soldaten-die-weigeren-te-sterven-op-het-slagveld-worden-gemarteld-of-opgehangen-het-is-een-hel-hier~b16c5c47/

mapuc

03-05-24, 12:17 PM

^ Nothing new there it ain't.

I believe it's true all of it or most of it while others would say it's West propaganda.

Markus

Dargo

03-05-24, 12:29 PM

^ Nothing new there it ain't.

I believe it's true all of it or most of it while others would say it's West propaganda.

MarkusThere is so much evidence from Russians themselves and images that I would not call it propaganda.

Jimbuna

03-05-24, 01:37 PM

Kyiv says seven dead as drone attack sinks Russian ship

Ukrainian intelligence says seven people have been killed and six more injured after a Russian patrol ship was hit and sunk in a sea drone attack.

The Sergei Kotov was allegedly hit in the early hours of Tuesday morning.

Ukraine's military intelligence service said the Black Sea fleet ship suffered damage to the stern as well as right and left sides.

The Kremlin is yet to comment, but some Russian bloggers confirmed the sinking of the Sergei Kotov.

The BBC has not been able to independently verify the extent of damage to the ship.

In a Telegram post Ukraine's Main Intelligence Directorate (HUR) said 52 crew members were evacuated.

The Sergei Kotov is one of four patrol ships completed for the Russian Navy's Project 22160. It had previously been attacked by Ukraine in September last year.

"Right now this ship is on the seabed," Ukrainian Navy spokesman Dmytro Pletenchuk said, adding a helicopter may have been on board.

According to Ukraine, the vessel played a part in the attack on Snake Island on the first day of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, along with the Moskva cruiser.

The Moskva was sunk by Ukraine in 2022.

Russia illegally annexed the Crimean peninsula from Ukraine almost 10 years ago. In recent months Ukraine has repeatedly hit Russia's Black Sea fleet stationed on the peninsula.

Ukraine said the cost of the sunken Sergei Kotov ship was $65m (£51.2m), adding that it was hit near the Kerch Strait, which separates Crimea from Russia.

A video posted on social media appears to show the moment when the ship was hit.

UK Defence Secretary Grant Shapps shared the video, stating "the Black Sea is not safe for Putin's Navy".

"Until recently that would have been unimaginable. Now because the West backed Ukraine, it's undeniable," he said.

"If we get them what they need, the bravery & skill of the Ukrainian Armed Forces can unlock victories once thought impossible."

BBC Verify has looked at the video, released by Ukraine, said to be of the attack.

The vessel has similar structural features to a patrol ship of the same class as the Sergei Kotov. However, no number is visible on its side, so the footage does not make clear if it is the same ship.

No other versions of the video have appeared on reverse image searches, suggesting the video was released recently.

HUR also published a recording purportedly of the commander of the Russian Navy's 184th Brigade, responsible for the Sergei Kotov, saying the ship had been attacked by five drones.

At least 13 Russian naval ships have been destroyed or damaged since the start of the conflict, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies think tank.

Last month, another Russian ship, the Caesar Kunikov, was sunk in a drone attack just south of the city of Yalta.

At the time, Ukraine's intelligence directorate released video of what it said were Magura V5 sea drones striking the Caesar Kunikov.

Separately, Ukraine claimed credit for a drone strike on an oil depot in the Russian border region of Belgorod on Tuesday.

Kyiv also said Ukrainian air defences had downed 18 of 22 Iranian-designed attack drones launched by Russia over the Black Sea port city of Odesa.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68477318

mapuc

03-05-24, 02:38 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qWeDNRwpsbI&ab_channel=CombatVeteranReacts

Markus

Dargo

03-05-24, 02:44 PM

Ukraine plans record electricity exports to 5 countriesUkraine plans to export a record 13 gigawatt hours of electricity to other countries on March 4, namely to Slovakia, Hungary, Poland, Romania, and Moldova, said Ukrenergo, Ukraine's state-owned energy operator, in a statement on Telegram. Since electricity exports are permitted only in the absence of energy deficits, the announcement indicates a stable situation in that sector despite Russian attacks and winter consumption." Today, it is planned to export a record amount of electricity – 13,264 megawatt hours, with the maximum capacity in individual hours up to 716 megawatts," Ukrenergo said on Telegram.

The state company said that flooded rivers and sunny weather contributed to greater output of hydroelectric and other power plants. "Thanks to this, electricity producers have the opportunity not only to fully meet the needs of Ukrainian consumers but also to sell electricity to neighbouring countries, receiving funds for further recovery after Russian attacks," the statement read. Despite Russian attacks against Ukraine's infrastructure over the winter, the country's energy system remained relatively stable, avoiding large-scale blackouts that happened during late 2022 and early 2023. Naftogaz's CEO Oleksiy Chernyshov said that for the first time, Ukraine went through the winter using only domestically-produced gas. https://kyivindependent.com/ukrenergo-ukraine-plans-record-electricity-exports-to-5-countries/

Skybird

03-06-24, 10:01 AM

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68488962

Wowh. Just wowh. Messing it up themselves - but already lecturing the others again.

Wallace was right, you stupid German SOAB.

But what do you expect of a government where high ranks do most infantile mistakes and their chef then says that this were no need at all to replace them due to their inappropriate underestimating of security risks and ignorrance for the need for following security protocols. If I were the minister, heads would have rolled.

Germany has once again made a fool of itself. And caused damage. And is outraged when it is called to order for it. Arrogant bunch.

Dargo

03-06-24, 11:48 AM

No Taurus is needed with a sub-drone they could destroy the pylons of the Kerch Bridge foundation underneath water so that the bridge section will collapse 35m down. :D

https://i.postimg.cc/d1VK0C5v/Kerchbridgefoundation.jpg

Jimbuna

03-06-24, 12:16 PM

Russian missile targets Ukrainian motorcade in 'attempt to assassinate President Zelensky'

Russia has attempted to assassinate Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky with a missile strike on his motorcade, it has been reported.

Zelensky was visiting Odesa, in southern Ukraine, when the motorcade - which was 150 metres from that of Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis - was attacked by a Russian missile at 11.43am, according to local media. Greek State Minister Stavros Papastavrou said "there is no issue" with the security of the Greek PM, adding: "We are all fine."

It is understood the meeting between the Ukrainian and Greek officials took place as expected. A picture from the scene showed black clouds rising over the Black Sea port city.

In remarks attributed to Mr Mitsotakis on Telegram, he said: "President Zelensky and his staff showed and explained to us the importance of the port and what is being done to restore and strengthen the Ukrainian sea route and what damage he experienced during the attacks.
"Already at the very end we heard the sound of sirens and explosions that were very close to us." According to Greek publication Protothema, the country's PM arrived in Ukraine early in the morning under conditions of "extreme secrecy" before heading to Bucharest in Romania for the EPP Summit.

Mr Mitsotakis first visited a border station before meeting Zelensky in Odesa, where the sirens began to sound and Ukraine said Russia had launched a ballistic missile. According to local media, the strike was carried out by either an Iskander missile or an Onyx missile. There have been no announcements or statements from Ukrainian officials on the incident as of yet.

According to reports, residents of Odesa were advised to go to shelters at 2pm. On Telegram, it has been claimed that five people were killed and "several" were injured in the attack. The Greek PM is being accompanied by minister of state Stavros Papastavrou, the head of his diplomatic office, Anna Maria Boura, and communications director Kyra Kapi.

In November, a key Putin security lieutenant issued a chilling warning to Zelensky saying he "is unlikely to have a chance of living to old age." The sickening threat from Russian ex-president Dmitry Medvedev followed Zelensky's revelation that he had already survived at least five Kremlin assassination attempts.

Mr Medvedev - now Putin's deputy on the Russian security council - said: "All this cheap bravado also evokes one very obvious thought. With such powerful ‘prophecies’, this fool is unlikely to have a chance of living to old age. Thoughts are sometimes material."
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/russian-missile-targets-ukrainian-motorcade-in-attempt-to-assassinate-president-zelensky/ar-BB1jqYPG?ocid=msedgntp&pc=U531&cvid=5e1f7be3eb04407893e32efb03902621&ei=28

Dargo

03-06-24, 12:16 PM

History Says Ukraine Can Win the War Against RussiaThe argument that Ukraine cannot win the war against Russia based solely on numerical superiority—more soldiers, weapons, tanks, and aircraft—is challenged by historical and contemporary examples where numbers were not decisive in determining the outcome of conflicts.

Summary: The argument that Ukraine cannot win the war against Russia based solely on numerical superiority—more soldiers, weapons, tanks, and aircraft—is challenged by historical and contemporary examples where numbers were not decisive in determining the outcome of conflicts. Who says Ukraine can't win the war with Russia? If numbers are all that matters, Ukraine doesn’t stand a chance against Russia. Vladimir Putin’s kingdom has more of everything: more soldiers, more weapons, more ammunition, more tanks, more aircraft, and so on. It’s also some 28 times larger than Ukraine, and its population dwarfs Ukraine’s. But if numbers are all that matters, Ukraine shouldn’t have survived the invasion of 2014 and the all-out war of 2022. Indeed, Ukraine should have gone belly up every single day since then. And yet, mysteriously and inexplicably for numbers fetishists, it didn’t.

Things get more inexplicable if we expand our focus. If numbers are all that matters, the United States should have prevailed in Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan, the Soviet Union should have easily conquered Afghanistan, the British, French, Spaniards, Dutch, and Portuguese should never have succeeded in establishing overseas empires, the Greeks should have lost to the Persians, Alexander the Great should never have reached the Indus River, the Mongols should never have approached the Adriatic, and Julius Caesar should never have conquered the Gauls. It’s hard to avoid the conclusion that numbers alone are a poor predictor of military outcomes. That’s not to say that numbers don’t matter. They obviously do. But so do other things, such as leadership, economies, technology, tactics, strategies, grit, faith, morale, and many other tangible and intangible factors that play a role in determining the outcomes of wars. The world is annoyingly complex, and analysts have no choice but to try to encompass at least some of that complexity in their predictions.

That’s easier said than done, with the result that the business of prediction usually entails invoking the ceteris paribus clause and “freezing” most of reality in the hope of approximating laboratory conditions and thereby zeroing in on the isolated cause and effect, in this case, numbers and victory. If everything except for numbers and outcomes is held constant, Russia wins easily. But “holding other things equal” cuts several ways. One can focus only on grit—an equally plausible move—and conclude that the Ukrainians win hands down. And if courageous leadership were all that mattered, then, once again, the Ukrainians would win. Ceteris paribus makes for elegant theories—such as neo-realism—but it also makes for poor policy advice, precisely because policymakers inhabit a complex world in which everything seems to matter. In sum, all analysts simplify, because more or less accurate prediction is impossible in an all-too-complex reality, but simplification also means that no one prediction can stand for the whole: pars pro toto does not apply. Grasping the whole, however, is devilishly difficult, and ordering the parts of the whole into something resembling a theoretically grounded, yet policy-relevant, prediction is even harder.

One consequence of these limitations is that the temptation to resort to ex cathedra assertions of the Truth is hard to resist precisely because it’s so easy and so definite. Consider the following statement: “In short, Russia is winning the war and there is little to suggest that any foreseeable political, economic, tactical or technological developments are likely to alter that fundamental reality.” The first part of that claim, that Russia is winning, can be tested empirically and is not a prediction. The evidence is at best ambiguous. Yes, Russia has gained some territory in the last few weeks, but no, its losses are massive. At best, its victory seems to be Pyrrhic and, thus, unsustainable. Despite claims that the Kremlin can draw on a virtually bottomless pool of potential conscripts, the reality is that it’s resorted to private military companies, hardened criminals, and foreign mercenaries to do the fighting, and dying. So, is Russia winning or losing?

The second part of the claim, about foreseeable developments, is categorically predictive—and wrong. One can easily foresee Putin’s overthrow, illness, or death (he is mortal, after all, and he’s alienated significant elements within the political and economic elites), accelerated economic decline, tactical incompetence, and technological backwardness. In fact, many Russian, Ukrainian, and Western analysts see these developments today, and not just in some distant future. Suppose one adopts a complex, multifaceted approach to Russia and its war against Ukraine. In that case, the simple predictions of imminent Russian victory made by numbers fetishists appear profoundly simplistic and, thus, useless. Russia has numbers on its side, but the regime is brittle, its supreme leader is cognitively challenged and prone to blunder, its armed forces are being ripped to shreds, its non-Russian nations are growing restive, its consumer economy is shrinking, inflation is high—and Ukraine’s partners in Europe and North America are increasingly aware of the existential danger that Putin poses to them.

Can a state with such weaknesses win a brutal war of attrition with Ukraine? Is time really on Russia’s side? At the very least, an appreciation of complexity may lead one to conclude that the answers are not self-evident. Alternatively, one can stick to numbers, but then it’s important to take the argument to its logical conclusion by turning the tables on the number of fetishists. Ukraine did well as long as the West provided it with the requisite number of weapons and ammunition. Ukraine began struggling when those supplies were reduced to a trickle. If numbers are all that matters, Russia is certain to lose as long as the West “outnumbers” Russia. The West surely can do so. The only question is whether it wants to—or, more precisely, whether House of Representatives Speaker Mike Johnson wants to. https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/history-says-ukraine-can-win-war-against-russia-209764

Jimbuna

03-06-24, 12:23 PM

Russia-Ukraine war: Moscow ignores arrest warrants for Putin commanders

Russia has said it does not recognise arrest warrants issued by the International Criminal Court (ICC) for two top Russian commanders over alleged war crimes in Ukraine.

The court named Sergei Kobylash and Viktor Sokolov on Tuesday.

"We are not parties to the [Rome] statute - we do not recognise this," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.

This is the second time warrants have been issued for Russians over the war in Ukraine.

The first was for President Vladimir Putin and his children's rights envoy.

Speaking to reporters on Wednesday, Mr Peskov said: "This is not the first decision. We also know that there are various closed processes going on there, which are kept secret, and we treat such decisions accordingly."

Mr Peskov said the fact that Russia was not a signatory to the Rome Statute, the international treaty which created the ICC, meant Russia did not recognise the warrants.

It is unlikely Russian nationals will be extradited to face charges.

In a statement on Tuesday, the ICC said the latest warrants were issued because there were reasonable grounds to believe that the two suspects were responsible for "missile strikes carried out by the forces under their command against ... Ukrainian electric infrastructure".

The alleged crimes took place between October 2022 and March 2023, the ICC said.

The court said that the attacks caused civilian harm and damage that would have been clearly excessive to any military advantage.

The two men "are each allegedly responsible for the war crime of directing attacks at civilian objects" and are also accused of the "crime against humanity of inhumane acts", the court said.

Mr Kobylash, 58, was the commander of long-range aviation for the Russian air force at the time of the alleged crimes.

Mr Sokolov, 61, was an admiral in the Russian navy who commanded the Black Sea Fleet during the period to which the charges relate, according to the ICC.

Last month, it was reported that he was dismissed after a series of successful Ukrainian drone attacks against Russian warships. However, his resignation has not been officially confirmed.

The two officers have not publicly commented on the issue.

Moscow has in the past denied targeting civilian infrastructure in Ukraine, despite the wealth of evidence collected by Ukrainian and international investigators.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky welcomed the latest move by the ICC.

"Every Russian commander who orders strikes against Ukrainian civilians and critical infrastructure must know that justice will be served," he posted on social media.

"Every perpetrator of such crimes must know that they will be held accountable."

The ICC investigates and brings to justice those responsible for genocide, crimes against humanity and war crimes, intervening when national authorities cannot or will not prosecute.

In March last year, the ICC issued arrest warrants for President Putin and Russia's commissioner for children's rights, Maria Lvova-Belova. The warrants related to the alleged unlawful deportation of children from Ukraine to Russia.

Moscow denied the allegations and labelled the warrants as "outrageous".
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68489266

Dargo

03-06-24, 02:33 PM

Ukraine announces 'worst nightmare' for Russian ships: 'This spring we go hunting'"This spring we will go hunting." In a slick video accompanied by ominous music, the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) has been leaving little to the imagination for several weeks. The Russian Black Sea fleet will suffer even worse in the coming period than it already does, it sounds confident. With one ultimate grand prize: the Crimean bridge connecting the occupied peninsula to the Russian mainland. With a payload of more than a ton of explosives, moreover, they should be able to pierce both a warship and reinforced concrete pillars of bridges. "The Sea Babies will protect the Ukrainian sea from Russian warships and prevent the enemy from bombing our peaceful cities," said the SBU. In mid-February, the service launched a crowdfunding campaign to finance 35 of the rigs, which cost just over 200,000 euros each. That raised the targeted amount of nearly 300 million Ukrainian hryvnia (7.1 million euros) after 36 hours. On Wednesday afternoon, the SBU presented the first drone produced: named "Avdiivka," it is clear what Ukraine will soon seek revenge for.

Unmanned boats for military use are not new. They already made their appearance at the end of World War II, mainly for observation and patrol missions. Ukraine now claims to be the first country to develop an entire fleet of such craft in advanced form and deploy them in attack missions. In this way, according to military analysts, they have the potential to profoundly change warfare worldwide. For this reason, the West, too, is watching the Sea Babies and other sea drones developed entirely in Ukraine with great eyes. In particular, the MAGURA V5 - short for Maritime Autonomous Guard Unmanned Robotic Apparatus - stands out. The smaller brother of the Sea Baby, with "only" a range of 800 kilometres and an explosive charge of 200 kilograms, was introduced in July 2023 and has already had some notable successes since then, with the sunken Russian patrol ship Sergei Kotov Tuesday morning as its latest victim (see map). In early February, the Russian corvette Ivanovets also sank, followed two weeks later by the landing ship Caesar Kunikov.

The advantages of naval drones are many: without its own navy and expensive warships, Ukraine hurts the Russian Black Sea fleet, which not so long ago was considered invincible. Since they are not manned, there is no risk of their own casualties, an aspect not to be underestimated now that Ukraine is facing major problems in its mobilization. Low cost also plays a role: according to unconfirmed reports, five MAGURAs were deployed Tuesday to sink the Sergei Kotov, bringing the cost of the operation to about 1.25 million euros. By contrast, Ukraine says the Sergei Kotov cost 60 million euros, killed 7 Russians and wounded at least 27. Ukraine, meanwhile, says it was able to take out up to a third of the Black Sea fleet. The exact figures are difficult to verify, but it has been clear for some time that Russia has been moving more and more ships in Crimea eastward to mainland ports like Novorossiejsk, farther away from the Ukrainian threat. This is boosting Ukrainian morale and hope as the land-based army is squeezed in several parts of the front.

Yet these are more than merely symbolic victories. Ukraine's campaign of attack in the western Black Sea in recent months has allowed it to open a new maritime corridor for merchant ships, which mainly transport grain from Ukrainian ports toward world markets. This benefits the economy significantly. It is also estimated that up to 20 percent of the missiles Russia launched toward Ukraine in the past were fired from ships in the Black Sea. This is now possible to a much lesser extent, which mainly benefits the cities on Ukraine's southern coast. Odessa, for example, is now mostly targeted via drones and much less with missiles than was previously the case. The Russian Defence Ministry, meanwhile, is keeping its lips tightly sealed, both about yesterday's attack and those of the weeks before. Russian military bloggers are not holding back, however, and are annoyed at what they see as Moscow's laxity in sinking its ships to the bottom of the sea. One of them, codenamed "Thirteenth," feared on Telegram that "if things continue like this, our Black Sea fleet will soon consist only of catamarans and rubber banana boats for vacationers. https://www.demorgen.be/nieuws/oekraine-kondigt-ergste-nachtmerrie-voor-russische-schepen-aan-deze-lente-gaan-we-op-jacht~be36768d/

The Black Sea fleet is also important to protect the Kerch Bridge, this means Russia will need to risk further sinking of ships. :up:

mapuc

03-06-24, 02:50 PM

Beautiful women whose mission it is to get top German politicians involved, while the act itself is secretly recorded and sent to the Russian intelligence service FSB.

https://ekstrabladet-dk.translate.goog/nyheder/politik/militaerekspert-advarer-bruger-putin-sexvideoer-til-afpresning/10153707?_x_tr_sl=da&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=da&_x_tr_pto=wapp

Markus

Commander Wallace

03-06-24, 03:39 PM

Kyiv says seven dead as drone attack sinks Russian ship

Voyage to the Bottom of the Sea. TV Series 1964.

Voyage to the Bottom of the Sea. Ukraine 2024.

:Kaleun_Thumbs_Up:

ET2SN

03-06-24, 06:12 PM

https://ekstrabladet-dk.translate.goog/nyheder/politik/militaerekspert-advarer-bruger-putin-sexvideoer-til-afpresning/10153707?_x_tr_sl=da&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=da&_x_tr_pto=wapp

Beautiful women whose mission it is to get top German politicians involved, while the act itself is secretly recorded and sent to the Russian intelligence service FSB.

Markus

Wouldn't it be more effective as blackmail if the women were ugly? :hmmm:

Skybird

03-06-24, 06:40 PM

https://www-focus-de.translate.goog/politik/ausland/ukraine-krise/analyse-zum-ukraine-krieg-der-verzweifelte-kampf-am-dnipro-birgt-zwei-bittere-erkenntnisse_id_259733657.html?_x_tr_sl=de&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de

Thiele finds this particularly worrying: "The Ukrainian bridgehead essentially consists of the bodies and personal weaponry of the Ukrainian soldiers. They have no protection worth mentioning and have to duck away in the event of Russian attacks."

He does not believe that the Ukrainians will be able to gather enough troops and material for a counterattack on the other side of the river.

"They are holding out there as a 'lost' force and are likely to pay a high price in terms of dead and wounded," he says. Surviving in the cold, wet, rats and other vermin also offers appalling conditions and little hope of improvement.

em2nought

03-06-24, 11:54 PM

Wouldn't it be more effective as blackmail if the women were ugly? :hmmm:

Certainly wouldn't want anyone thinking I'd tried to sleep with this broad. :har:

https://netstorage-legit.akamaized.net/images/f2cc9d8935b48b60.jpg

Jimbuna

03-07-24, 09:31 AM

Voyage to the Bottom of the Sea. TV Series 1964.

Voyage to the Bottom of the Sea. Ukraine 2024.

:Kaleun_Thumbs_Up:

Precisely :)

Jimbuna

03-07-24, 09:36 AM

Eastern residents brace for Russian advance

In eastern Ukraine, the tide of this war hasn't just changed - it's coming in fast.

"We know what's coming," says Mariya as she packs up the TV in her flat in Kostyantynivka. She's having it delivered to Kyiv before making the journey there with her son.

"We're tired all day [and suffer] moods and panic attacks. It's constantly depressing, and we're scared."

In February, Russia captured the strategic town of Avdiivka. Since then, the invaders have advanced further west, and taken several villages.

Ukraine says its forces are "holding on". But Russian troops are now attacking in five areas along the 1,100km (700 mile) front line.

Over 1.2 million people - or two thirds of the population - have left the Ukrainian-controlled Donetsk region since Russia's full scale invasion two years ago.

And it's here in the eastern Donetsk region that Ukraine's defenders are being tested the most.

People in cities like Pokrovsk, Kostyantynivka and Kramatorsk are now facing a fast-approaching front line, and even occupation.

Mariya and her mother Tetyana are finding life increasingly difficult as the Russians advance closer.

Their city is littered with signs of the approaching threat 30km (19 miles) away.

Almost every street has a damaged building. Workers replace gold panels on a church after they were blown off by a missile strike on the neighbouring train station, now destroyed.

Anxiety fills the cold air in this town, once part of the industrial heartland of the former Soviet Union. Russia slowly destroys Ukraine's cities as it tries to take them. That's what is feared the most here.

Mariya explains that her mother Tetyana is staying, but she's confident she'll follow her eventually.

"I've already left twice, what's the point?" says a defiant Tetyana from her apartment around the corner. She gives us slippers to wear around her home, which explains why it's spotless.

"It's scary everywhere. The whole country is on fire."

Her eyes moisten. It's one thing to stay in your home for as long as you can, it's another to risk death or Russian occupation.

While the whole of Ukraine is a war zone, the Donetsk region - along with four others - is a battlefield. When you weave through its dense forest and expansive, rugged terrain, you always feel like you're approaching the coal face of this conflict.

You can hear heavy fire from as far as 40 km away, so the distant sound of artillery is constant. From one vantage point you can see the erosion of Ukrainian territory.

Plumes of smoke come from the directions of Avdiivka, a town Russia has recently taken, and Horlivka, which it's controlled since 2014.

Russia is using its size, air superiority and deeper ammunition reserves to keep pushing, at a time when Western military aid to Ukraine is running low or being held up by domestic politics.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68493215

Dargo

03-07-24, 11:07 AM

The Ukrainian army is preparing for new counterattacks against the Russians.A major counteroffensive is not realistic, but "our mission is to stabilize the front line and kill as many Russians as possible," said Oleksander Pavlyuk, the new commander of Ukrainian ground forces. In a TV interview with Ukraine's public broadcaster, Pavlyuk said the situation at the front is "difficult, but under control." According to the commander, Moscow has been trying in recent months to make as much progress as possible ahead of Russia's presidential elections, which start next Friday. Currently, Russian attacks are said to be concentrated at a rapid pace in and around the eastern cities of Avdiivka, Kupyansk, Lyman and Cheyiv Yar west of Bakhmut. But the Ukrainians are not letting themselves be small, emphasized Pavlyuk who said the Russians are suffering heavy losses in their offensives. "Our task is to stabilize the front line, kill as many Russians as possible - which we are doing - and regroup ourselves so that units that need help can withdraw," he said. Troops that can be freed as a result could then try to seize the initiative later in the year through counterattacks.

https://i.postimg.cc/MZ4Wp6qn/Chasiv-Yar.jpg

A new major counteroffensive is therefore unlikely this year, and would not be smart, according to military analysts. Yet, one does not preclude the other. Military strategist Michael Kofman, an expert on the Russian and Ukrainian military, also launched the "hold, build & strike" concept for the Ukrainian army in 2024 back in late December. That idea of holding the front, rebuilding the army and simultaneously conducting local smart counterattacks fits in perfectly with Pavlyuk's plans. "Despite the fierce fighting, our men continue to hold out," Pavlyuk said. "The enemy's losses are huge. I think we will soon stabilize the situation and do everything possible to prepare the troops for more active operations where we can take the initiative." A few days ago, the British Defence Ministry also said that Russian losses in Ukraine were never as high as in February: London reckons that an average of 983 Russian soldiers were killed or wounded on the battlefield every day last month. "That increase is almost certainly a sign of Russia's intention for a massive war of attrition," the British said. "However costly in terms of human lives, the result may have increased the pressure on Ukrainian positions at the front." https://www.demorgen.be/oorlog-in-oekraine/kersverse-commandant-van-oekraiense-grondtroepen-heeft-plan-voor-2024-klaar-ook-tegenaanvallen-uitvoeren~b40f3155/

Russian air force takes more risk over Ukraine and appears to have lost many aircraft quicklyRussia is taking great risks in supporting its ground forces in Ukraine from the air. The Russian air force seems to have suffered heavy losses in a short period of time. 'That is not good for Russian prestige.' Russia's main fighter-bomber force, which is supposed to support ground forces' operations from the air, is said to have been especially vulnerable in recent weeks. Ukraine claims to have downed at least 13 modern Su-34s, an unprecedented number in such a short time. Kyiv also claims to have downed a second A-50. This radar aircraft coordinates air strikes and guards against the dangers posed by Ukraine's air force and ground-based air defences.

General b.d. Dick Berlin, a former F-16 pilot and former commander of the Royal Air Force, called the loss of so many aircraft remarkable. 'For any air force, this would be a bash,' said Berlin, who was also Commander of the Armed Forces until 2008. 'The Su-34 and the A-50 are important and expensive aircraft. The Su-34 is an advanced aircraft that can fire precision weapons. And of the A-50, the Russians don't have many. These planes - but also your expensive pilots - you don't like to lose.' The Russian losses have not yet been confirmed by independent sources. But the authoritative American think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) does not doubt the Ukrainian claims. Military experts also speak of a loss. 'The loss is certainly not insignificant for the Russian military, since Russia probably has some three hundred different Sukhoy fighters,' said the institute, which is meticulously surveying the war. The blows the Russians had to take - a Su-34 costs some 50 million euros - represents a break with the performance so far of the Russian air force. This armed force unit had come through the war relatively unscathed in the past two years. Partly because of Ukraine's air defences, the Supreme Command in Moscow did not dare to deploy the air force on a large scale.

It seems that the Russians are abandoning this caution for a while to allow for more successes on the battlefield after the capture of Avdiivka. Russian combat units near Avdiivka are trying to push forward into the part of the Donetsk region still held by Ukraine. In doing so, they are taking advantage of the opponent's shortage of weapons and ammunition. Aerial support from Su-34s, an aircraft designed to support ground attacks, could serve them well. 'The Russian military appears willing to risk sustained air losses in its attempt to make tactical gains in eastern Ukraine,' the ISW said. Russian fighter pilots are particularly at risk because they have been without support from A-50 radar aircraft for just under a week, according to Kyiv. In early January, Ukraine succeeded for the first time in downing an A-50, of which only six were said to be operational. Two weeks ago, Ukraine announced the destruction of a second A-50. With what weapons the Ukrainian air defense managed to shoot the A-50s and Su-34s out of the sky, Kyiv did not disclose. There is extensive speculation that the Ukrainians moved a Patriot battery to the front line in Donetsk to threaten the Russian aircraft. Ukraine has received Patriots from the Netherlands, among other countries.

For the Russians, the loss of so many Su-34s in a span of just two weeks is a considerable humiliation. The fighter-bomber, similar to the U.S. F-15, has only been operational since 2014 and is considered one of the Russian Air Force's most important fighters. By comparison, the F-15 has been in use by various air forces since 1976, but none has been shot down in a dogfight so far. However, two were shot down in 1991 in the Gulf War. Before the war began, Russia had some 140 Su-34s. According to the military blog Oryx, which tracks Russian military losses, 26 Su-34s have so far been lost in combat. Dick Berlin points out that the loss of Su-34s could cost the Russians dearly: "The Su-34 is considered superior in certain scenarios. Russia likes to advertise it. They also want to sell the aircraft abroad. But the aircraft now turns out to be vulnerable after all. This is not good for Russian prestige. In terms of morale, this loss is not good either. It will have an impact on the pilots and the atmosphere in such a squadron.'

The Su-34 can use an arsenal of precision weapons, including high-tech cruise missiles, to launch attacks to assist troops who have launched the attack. At Avdiivka, mostly traditional, old-fashioned bombs were used. However, these have been "made high-tech" by putting them in an "electronic jacket," complete with wings, allowing them to be guided by GPS to their target. The deployment of these devastating bombs, in the final days of the battle for Avdiivka, would have ultimately led to the Ukrainian withdrawal. https://www.volkskrant.nl/nieuws-achtergrond/russische-luchtmacht-neemt-meer-risico-boven-oekraine-en-lijkt-snel-veel-toestellen-te-hebben-verloren~b673c588/

mapuc

03-07-24, 11:58 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=auNLI-kLYbc&ab_channel=CombatVeteranReacts

Markus

Skybird

03-07-24, 01:38 PM

Now it's happening after all.

[Focus] General Valery Salushnyi, who was dismissed as commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian armed forces around a month ago, is to become the new ambassador to the UK. President Volodymyr Zelenskyi has spoken out in favor of Salushnyi's appointment to the post, the Foreign Ministry in Kiev announced on Thursday evening. The British side must now give its official approval. Last July, Zelensky recalled the then Ukrainian ambassador in London, Vadym Prystayko, shortly after he had openly criticized him.

Note the great distance between Kyiv and London.

Skybird

03-07-24, 01:42 PM

The formal process to admit Sweden as a full member of NATO was completed today. NATO now has 32 members.

ET2SN

03-07-24, 02:22 PM

The formal process to admit Sweden as a full member of NATO was completed today. NATO now has 32 members.

:Kaleun_Party:
:yeah:

For those of you who have doubts about what's really going on, ask yourself how ####ed up things had to get for Sweden to join NATO. :yep:

I'm still wondering if Gripens make more sense than F-16s? :hmmm:

Dargo

03-07-24, 02:31 PM

:Kaleun_Party:
:yeah:

For those of you who have doubts about what's really going on, ask yourself how ####ed up things had to get for Sweden to join NATO. :yep:

I'm still wondering if Gripens make more sense than F-16s? :hmmm:These Gen-4 jets are highly capable aircrafts while the Gripen is famous for its advanced avionics and sensor capabilities, the F-16 is known for its agility and maneuverability. The Saab Gripen is cost effective as compared to F-16 and it makes an attractive option for countries with a smaller budget. The choice between the two jets depends on the specific needs and requirements of the military and the resources they have at their disposal. https://www.defencestreet.com/saab-gripen-vs-f-16-fighting-falcon/

Sweden and Finland joining was no surprise both countries trained and worked together for years with NATO, it was Putin action that did make them to decide.

Jimbuna

03-07-24, 02:36 PM

Britain increases drone funding for Ukraine by over $150 million

Britain will increase its spending on drones for Ukraine by 125 million pounds ($160 million), raising the total number of drones supplied to more than 10,000, the government said on Thursday as Defence Secretary Grant Shapps visited Kyiv.

Britain’s support comes at a crucial time for Ukraine in the two-year war. Vital U.S. military aid has stalled, while Russia’s offensive looks more assertive after it took the city of Avdiivka last month, its biggest gain since May 2023.

Drones, which are cheap to produce and can conduct surveillance or target enemies with great accuracy, have emerged as a key weapon in the conflict, with both Ukraine and Russia striving for the upper hand in technology.

“I am ramping up our commitment to arm Ukraine with cutting-edge new drones coming directly from the UK’s world-leading defence industries - straight from the factory floor to the frontline. I encourage international partners to join the UK in this effort,” Shapps said, as he met Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy.

Britain said it would expand its drone package to 325 million pounds from the 200 million pounds announced in January.

The package includes thousands of first-person view drones, 1,000 one-way attack drones researched and developed in Britain as well as surveillance and maritime drones.

ET2SN

03-07-24, 03:03 PM

These Gen-4 jets are highly capable aircrafts while the Gripen is famous for its advanced avionics and sensor capabilities, the F-16 is known for its agility and maneuverability. The Saab Gripen is cost effective as compared to F-16 and it makes an attractive option for countries with a smaller budget. The choice between the two jets depends on the specific needs and requirements of the military and the resources they have at their disposal. https://www.defencestreet.com/saab-gripen-vs-f-16-fighting-falcon/

The F-16 requires a dedicated air base and clean runways, the Gripen can operate off a highway and doesn't need as much "turn around" time. :03:

Commander Wallace

03-07-24, 03:09 PM

Precisely :)

I should have said, Voyage to the bottom of the Sea - Russian Ships - Ukraine - 2022 to 2024 and counting. :Kaleun_Salute: However, I'm sure everyone except Russia understands and appreciates the humor in all this and everyone of course has their own thoughts. :yep:

Skybird

03-07-24, 03:15 PM

Gripen is capable, and was one of the very best in class at the days it was released - but the A-D variants have their best days behidn them.

Two big advantages: it starts from and land on very short runways and public streets, and it is way more cost efficient than American jets.

The latest version E is a completely new development of the Gripen, not just an update of the older lines. Under war conditions the plane can land, refuel, rearm and take off again within 10-15 minutes. The engine can be completely replaced in one hour. Combine that with the ability of operating outside airbases, from within forests, from public roads, which reflects demands of Swedish defence doctrine. - That is what the printed papers say.

Its fourth generation combat plane, but amongst fourth generation fighters the latest E-version is one of the most modern ones. And: for the price of one Eurofighter you can get 2.5 - 3 Gripens. Wowh. Numbers are an arugment, as I often have insisted on. And the numbers you can get right with this price tag. If you have enough pilots and engineers.

I always had a soft spot for the Gripen. It did not export well, arms deals are always political deals, but imho it is one of if not THE most underrated modern MR fighters there are. The new E version is very very interesting and is expected to blow another 50 years of life into the model. Also, the E-version is globally met with renewed interest.

And no, the E-variant means not to fly all "electrical". :D

Commander Wallace

03-07-24, 03:28 PM

Gripen is capable, and wa sone of the very best in class at the days it was released - but has its best times behind it. Two big advanatges: it is start and land with very short runways, and it is more cost efficient than American jets. The latest version E is a complete new development of the Gripen, not just an update of the older lines. Under war ciodnitons the plane can land, refule, rearm and tak eoff again withion 10-15 minutes. The engine can be completely replaced in one hour. That is what the printed papers say.

Its fourth generartion, but amongst fourth generation fighters the E-version is one of the most modenr ones. And: for the price of one Eurofighter you can get 2.5 - 3 Gripens. Wowh.

I always had a soft spot for the Gripen. It did not export well, but imho it is one of the most underrated modern MR fighters there are. The new E version is very very interesting and is expected to blow another 50 years of life into the model. Also, the E-version is gloobally met with renewed interest.

And no, the E-variant means not to fly all "electrical". :D

Sweden has an established Fighter aircraft Industry and it's subsidiaries with Saab and Erickson among others providing electronics and other components. With the Draken, Viggen and Gripen paving the way and acceptance into NATO, I would expect the Gripen to be upgraded straight away. With the exceptional designs of the Gripen and the Avionics Sweden is known for, The Gripen remains an excellent platform that can be easily upgraded, If needed.

Jimbuna

03-08-24, 11:46 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y-Veqf4sqO8

Jimbuna

03-08-24, 11:57 AM

Putin orders Russian troops to give flowers to women in Ukraine

Masked Russian soldiers handed out flowers and performed a conflict-inspired “festive concert” to mark International Women’s Day in occupied Ukraine.

Footage shared on social media by Russia’s defence ministry showed soldiers in military fatigues and scarves pulled over their faces distributing flowers to female workers in Mariupol.

In the video, two fighters in combat uniform entered a medical facility bearing burgundy paper gift bags and red flowers.

The men, who are both sapper engineers, presented a bouquet of flowers and a gift bag to a woman in a doctor’s gown before awarding the same gifts to two more women in the Ukrainian port city that was captured by Russian forces at the start of the war.

Fighters in army uniform, wearing bulletproof vests and with camouflage painted on their faces also staged a conflict-inspired “festive concert” routine for women at a local school, the video showed.

Intense Russian bombardment of Mariupol destroyed the city and killed tens of thousands of civilians in 2022.

Elsewhere, in Moscow, masked riot police handed out flowers to women in the city centre.

Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, also hailed women soldiers fighting on the front line and supporting his country’s armed forces, stating: “I would like to especially address the women who are in the zone of the special military operation, performing combat tasks.”

Sergei Shoigu, the Russian defence minister, thanked the mothers of soldiers fighting in Ukraine. “You have raised true patriots and valiant defenders of the Fatherland,” he said.

The Kremlin charm offensive comes amid a growing wave of Russian women protesting at their husbands and sons being called up to fight in Ukraine.

Every week, wives and mothers of mobiled Russian soldiers lay down red carnations at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier, one of Moscow’s best known monuments.

The movement, called The Way Home, has gathered 65,000 followers on Telegram with about 20 women regularly turning up to their protests in Moscow.

At one protest last month outside the Kremlin to mark 500 days since Russia’s mobilisation was declared, at least 27 people were detained – most of them journalists covering the event OVD-Info, a human rights group, reported.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/putin-orders-russian-troops-to-give-flowers-to-women-in-ukraine/ar-BB1jyYC3?ocid=msedgntp&pc=U531&cvid=173a1d223c5946639030c446e43507b9&ei=14

mapuc

03-08-24, 02:33 PM

If you had asked me 6-8 month ago whether I believed in an Ukrainian victory-I would have said: Yes I believe they will win.

Since then this confidence has faded and if you ask me today I would say: I truly doubt it.

Markus

Dargo

03-08-24, 03:18 PM

That all depends on how you define winning on the moment Ukraine still holds and can if nothing terrible happens prevent Russia to reach its strategic goals the longer Ukraine holds the more they can get the needed tools, ammunition. Ukraine does not need to retake all ground back to win, most of the Luhansk and Donbas oblast are either destroyed or plundered by Russia the millions of mines laid in those oblasts would take decades to clear. This war will last many years, maybe it will result in a situation like the Korea war (South Korea does it vastly better than North Korea) this will still be no lose for Ukraine the second army of the world would be the loser in this situation. More than 80% of Ukraine will be a strong partner in the West and profit more from this than under Russian rule. Even with this so called great Russian war economy Russian military offensive has no breakthrough Russia losses so much on the moment they only can replace what they lost with Ukraine shortages that is a great win for Ukraine they win in the air, on the sea and can can hold the lines with lesser loses than Russia suffers.

mapuc

03-08-24, 03:25 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n8PbFZn2vUM&ab_channel=CombatVeteranReacts

Markus

Dowly

03-08-24, 03:32 PM

Article about the first known Finnish KIA in Ukraine:
https://yle.fi/a/74-20075975

Few things of note: He is not the one who's story I translated before, I have seen that person online after this article was published.

In a documentary about him that I am translating (slowly) atm, there is a snippet of a video I believe I have posted in this thread of two Finns retreating with one of them wounded. However, it is not made clear if Kasper is the one filming the video or not.

Skybird

03-08-24, 03:38 PM

Dowly

03-08-24, 03:43 PM

Dargo

03-08-24, 03:51 PM

The industrial, economic, agricultural, infrastrutural and energy-related damage all is taken by Ukraine. The territorial losses as well. In case of a seize-fire a Crimea held by Russia will allow them to control most of Ukrainian air space as well, and threaten it. Russia then will also move far-raning anti ship missiles to it and thjreaten shippoing routes again. The financial and economc losses of Ukraine are in the trillion dollar range. One quarter of the population will have fled from Ukraine then. Those staying will be trakmatiozed for the rest of their lives.

"Winning"...?This scenario is Ukraine agreeing to surrender that will not happen Ukraine will never agree to this kind of agreement. "energy-related damage all is taken by Ukraine" no on the moment Ukraine export its energy to Europe in a war. Russia lost its largest market western investments that will go into Ukraine, not back to Russia. Russia is not safe to invest thanks to Putin, even after a ceasefire Russia stays a North Korea. On the moment it is destroying its economy it can not like it could not after the fall of the USSR build it up without the West. The only growth we see in Russia is its war economy, not its public economy total different economies the war economy cannibalizes its public economy. Russia stops its refining and export for months you really think Russia is doing great if you stop refining Russia can not start it up without the West. All oil production was in the hands of the West with Western knowledge and equipment that can only be run, repaired by western companies. Russia is going back to the soviet time that went so good for them the Russian state now taxes Russian companies on the base that the state determines their revenue (planned economy) even if they have a lower revenue they have to pay the determined tax by the state that will go swell accord the soviet plan. The only conclusion is that they do this because funds are beginning to run low, this is how great the Russian economy is. I can make fun about the egg or fish price OK the shops are full but if your people can not afford basic food it is soviet time all over only without the cues down the hill. It is a war that Russia cannot afford to win the cost of rebuilding and maintaining security in a conquered Ukraine would be too great, and an isolated Russia could at best hope to become a junior partner entirely dependent on China. It has become clear that resource rich Russia has become much poorer than its former Soviet neighbours such as Estonia, Latvia, Poland and Hungary, who pursued the route of European integration.

Btw Ukraine shoots on this moment 2 to 3 times more shells than a couple of weeks ago.

Jimbuna

03-09-24, 09:07 AM

Russia attempts to block maritime corridor established by Ukraine

Ukraine's Permanent Representative to the UN, Serhii Kyslytsia, stated that Russia continues its attempts to block the maritime corridor, but Ukraine has successfully restored it, according to Ukrinform.

"Russia's attempts to blackmail the international community by withdrawing from the initiative have failed. However, despite the war, Ukraine has launched a maritime corridor and continues to enhance its efficiency," said Kyslytsia.

The Permanent Representative provided export data, stating that nearly 30 million tons of goods were shipped from the ports of Odesa, Pivdennyi, and Chornomorsk to 42 countries worldwide.

"In February, over 8 million tons of goods were successfully exported. Agricultural products account for 80% of shipments from the ports. In fact, the export from Ukrainian Black Sea ports has reached a level comparable to that before the full-scale invasion," he added.
According to Kyslytsia, ships of the Russian Black Sea Fleet no longer dare to appear in the north-western part of the Black Sea due to their decreasing numbers.

"All that Russia has left is to launch missiles, attempting to intimidate Ukraine and our trade partners," stated Kyslytsia.

In conclusion, the Permanent Representative emphasized the strengthening of Ukrainian port air defense.

Following Russia's withdrawal from the grain corridor, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy proposed to Turkiye and the UN to extend the grain initiative in a trilateral format. The government noted that Ukraine plans to insure ships traveling through the grain corridor.

In August 2023, Ukraine opened a maritime corridor primarily for the departure of civilian vessels stranded in ports since the start of the full-scale war with Russia.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/russia-attempts-to-block-maritime-corridor-established-by-ukraine/ar-BB1jAE4A?ocid=mailsignout&pc=U591&cvid=dae2918d16564fabbf23d07ad963db01&ei=22

Jimbuna

03-09-24, 09:32 AM

A lonely radio nerd. A poet. Vladimir Putin's crackdown sweeps up ordinary Russians

A lonely man jailed for criticizing the government on his ham radio. A poet assaulted by police after he recited a poem objecting to Russia’s war in Ukraine. A low-profile woman committed to a psychiatric facility for condemning the invasion on social media.

President Vladimir Putin’s 24 years in power are almost certain to be extended six more by this month's presidential election. That leadership has transformed Russia. A country that tolerated some dissent is now one that ruthlessly suppresses it.

Along with opposition politicians, independent journalists and human rights activists, ordinary Russians have been increasingly swept up in a crackdown reminiscent of the Soviet era. Some human rights advocates compare the scale of the clampdown to the repression from the 1960s to the 1980s, when dissidents were prosecuted for “anti-Soviet propaganda.”

THREE YEARS IN PRISON FOR A RADIO AMATEUR

Vladimir Rumyantsev led a lonely life. The 63-year-old worked stoking the furnace at a wood-processing plant in Vologda, a city about 400 kilometers (250 miles) northeast of Moscow. He had no family apart from an estranged brother.

To entertain himself, he bought a couple of radio transmitters online and started broadcasting audiobooks and radio plays that he had liked, along with YouTube videos and podcasts by journalists critical of the Kremlin and the war in Ukraine. He also shared posts on his social network page in which independent media and bloggers talked about Russia's attacks on civilian infrastructure in Ukraine.

Rumyantsev did not intend to reach a radio audience. According to his lawyer, Sergei Tikhonov, he listened on headphones in his own apartment.

In a letter from behind bars published by Russia’s prominent rights group OVD-Info, Rumyantsev said “tinkering with and improving” radios has been his hobby since Soviet times, and he decided to set up self-broadcasting as an alternative to Russia's state TV, which was increasingly airing “patriotic hysteria.” To him, it seemed a better technological solution than Bluetooth speakers because the radio could reach everywhere in his apartment, he said in the letter.

But his social media activity eventually put him on the authorities’ radar, and they discovered his radio frequency. In July 2022, police arrested Rumyantsev, accusing him of “spreading knowingly false information” about the Russian army — a criminal charge authorities introduced shortly after invading Ukraine.

Rumyantsev rejected the charges and insisted on his constitutional right to freely collect and disseminate information, Tikhonov says. The law under which Rumyantsev was charged effectively criminalized any expression about the war that deviated from the Kremlin’s official narrative. In December 2022, he was convicted and sentenced to three years in prison.

Tikhonov visits Rumyantsev every so often in a penal colony about 200 kilometers away (125 miles) from Vologda and described him as “calm and resilient,” even though incarceration has taken its toll on his health.

He said Rumyantsev deliberately chose to speak out against the war and refuses to apply for parole as “it is unacceptable for him to admit guilt, even as a formality.”

Russian media reported on the case against Rumyantsev when he was in pretrial detention, and he started getting many letters of support, Tikhonov said. Some supporters put money in his prison account, while others have sent supplies — mostly food, but also books and personal hygiene items, according to the lawyer.

“In addition to making the man’s life easier, this (gave him) an understanding that he is not alone and there are many people who share the same values,” Tikhonov said.

ARREST AND VIOLENCE AFTER A POETRY RECITAL

Artyom Kamardin worked as an engineer, but poetry is his passion.

He was a regular at monthly recitals in the center of Moscow, near the monument to Soviet poet Vladimir Mayakovsky. The recitals continued even after Russia invaded Ukraine. One was billed as an “anti-mobilization” recital several days after Putin announced a partial call-up into the army in September 2022.

Kamardin, 33, recited a poem condemning Russia-backed insurgents in eastern Ukraine. The next day, police with a search warrant burst into the apartment he shared with his wife Alexandra Popova and another friend, and took the poet into custody.

Police beat Kamardin, Popova and their flatmate, and raped the poet, both his wife and his lawyer said. All three filed a formal complaint with the authorities, and the allegations were eventually investigated. The authorities concluded that police acted “within the law," the Russian news outlet Sota reported, citing the lawyer without providing further details.

For the couple, the experience was so traumatic that they “still can’t openly talk to each other” about what happened, Popova said in an interview with The Associated Press.

In addition to Kamardin, police swept up two other poets who didn’t know him, nor each other. They charged all three with making calls undermining national security and inciting hatred. All three were convicted and sentenced to prison terms.

Kamardin got the longest — seven years.

“No one should be in prison for words, for poetry,” Popova said. She said she believes that her husband’s poem “insulted someone so much that they decided to scourge a defiant poet.”

The couple got married while Kamardin was in pretrial detention.

INVOLUNTARY TREATMENT IN A PSYCHIATRIC HOSPITAL FOR WAR CRITICISM

Unlike dozens of other Russians convicted over speaking out against the war in Ukraine and handed prison terms, St. Petersburg resident Viktoria Petrova is spending her days in a psychiatric facility. In December, she was sentenced to six months of involuntary treatment over a social media post condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Her lawyer has said that doctors can keep Petrova there for as long as they want and extend the term indefinitely once the six months run out. So the ruling “can’t be considered good news,” Anastasia Pilipenko wrote in her blog on the messaging app Telegram.

Petrova was arrested in May 2022 and placed in pretrial detention over a post on Russian social network VK, in which she criticized Russian officials for what the Kremlin insists on calling “a special military operation" in Ukraine, the lawyer told Russian independent news site Mediazona.

In her Telegram blog, Pilipenko has described Petrova, 30, as “an ordinary girl” who “merely shared her thoughts on social media."

“Ordinary life, ordinary gym, a cat. Ordinary job at an unremarkable office,” the lawyer wrote.

The court ordered a psychiatric evaluation of Petrova after other inmates of her pretrial detention center reported that she kept up her “antiwar propaganda,” Pilipenko said in an interview with a local news outlet. These evaluations are common but in a rare turn, Petrova was declared mentally incompetent.

The lawyer argued that it wasn’t true and her client’s words have been misconstrued, but to no avail — Petrova was committed to a psychiatric facility.

In November, Pilipenko reported abuse by facility staff, saying that they forced a strip search of the woman by male workers, pushed her around, strapped her to the hospital bed and injected her with medication that left her unable to to speak for two days.

“This should not happen to ‘political (prisoners),’ criminals, mentally ill people, healthy people — anyone,” Pilipenko wrote on Telegram. The facility didn't comment on the allegations, but shortly after she spoke out about it, Pilipenko wrote, the abuse stopped.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/a-lonely-radio-nerd-a-poet-vladimir-putin-s-crackdown-sweeps-up-ordinary-russians/ar-BB1jAyKP?ocid=mailsignout&pc=U591&cvid=9494b349f51641b9bc32dd54915ee59e&ei=26

Skybird

03-09-24, 11:07 AM

Given the possible alternative of losing her independency to Russia? Yeah, that would be a win.No, its a loss, compared to industrial, economic and territorial integrity of before 2014.

Trillions in coins lost or needed to rebuild whats left. Next war with Russia as certain as night follows day.

I dont define that as a "win". Its mere survival for the time being. Just barely. It will last for a moment, and not longer.

Jimbuna

03-09-24, 11:11 AM

Another 1/2 years tops and it could well be a case of survival for Ukraine.

Skybird

03-09-24, 11:13 AM

Putin's plan for a castrated Ukraine.

https://www-focus-de.translate.goog/politik/geheimes-dokument-offenbart-putins-absurden-friedens-plan_id_259744757.html?_x_tr_sl=de&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de

The Wall Street Journal article is behind a paywall. This translated German article refers to it and summarizes it.

Dargo

03-09-24, 02:52 PM

The $1 Trillion Race to Rebuild Ukraine Is Slowly Getting GoingThe momentum may be with Russia, but politicians, executives and investors are already eying the biggest contract bonanza since at least World War II. As orders for its backup electricity generators surged in Ukraine, Turkish company Aksa Power Generation finally dispatched a dedicated manager to Kyiv. Salih Komurcu’s job, though, wasn’t just to oversee the current business in the war-hit country. It was also about what happens when the bombs eventually stop. The situation on the front line offers no sense of when or how Russia’s war against its neighbor might end. Ukrainian setbacks have darkened the mood in Kyiv of late. But a growing phalanx of companies is gradually increasing its presence on the ground with the prospect of the biggest investment opportunity since at least World War II when it does. Governments, executives and investors are positioning themselves in anticipation of a reconstruction that the European Investment Bank estimates could amount to more than $1 trillion of public and private capital. Adjusted for inflation, that’s more than five times as big as the US-funded Marshall Plan that powered the industrial renaissance in Europe following Germany’s defeat. A look at the rebuilding activity across Ukraine — even with fighting in its third year — gives an idea of what the large-scale effort may look like. Turkish companies are restoring bridges and roads, while providing energy generators and mobile hospitals, hoping they will have an edge when the competition for big-ticket contracts gets going. Little of it so far, though, is for the longer term and more patching battle scars.

Looking further out, German and Austrian companies are planning ventures in infrastructure and defense, JPMorgan Chase & Co. is waiting for working groups for “pre-project planning,” while Denmark has so far donated €120 million ($130 million) to rebuild the shipbuilding hub of Mykolaiv. “Everyone is building their circles,” said Komurcu, Aksa’s representative in the Ukrainian capital since November. “I want to be in the middle of it, among the people who were here in advance — and knowing everyone.” Where the rebuilding takes place will show what the shape of a future Ukraine might look like. Billions of dollars are slated for the swathe of the country controlled by President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s government, but about 18% of Ukraine is currently occupied by Russian forces. The map of Ukraine will depend on how much of that territory is taken back by Kyiv, and when and where more than a quarter of the country’s prewar population will opt to live. About 3.7 million citizens still remain internally displaced, nearly 6.5 million have fled abroad and millions of others live under Russian occupation. An estimated 156,000 square kilometers (60,231 square miles) — an area almost twice the size of Austria — have been affected by mines and other munitions, according to Ukrainian Economy Minister Yulia Svyrydenko.

For those reasons, the man in charge of the rebuilding project in Ukraine said he is unable to yet paint a picture of the shape of his nation once the war ends. Questions also include how to guarantee the Russian aggressors won’t return should there be some sort of peace accord and how a country plagued by corruption will process the incoming aid. “We have a chance to rebuild better than it was in the USSR,” Mustafa Nayyem, head of the State Infrastructure and Reconstruction Development Agency, said in his office in Kyiv. “A kind of a machine that will work — confident and transparent — when the funds come.” For now, Ukraine is struggling to get aid to support its flagging war effort let alone rebuild the country. A breakthrough came at the start of February when Hungary dropped its opposition to the EU’s €50 billion aid package. But on the ground, work is being done to keep the country running and also gear up for the reconstruction. Ukrainian energy firms have patched up battered infrastructure and agricultural companies are restoring silos and transit routes. The biggest steelmaker, Metinvest BV, estimates that once the large-scale reconstruction starts, some 3.5 million tons of steel will be needed to restore housing and social infrastructure over five to 10 years. The company says it’s ready to meet that demand.

German companies are following their government, which is supporting Ukraine bilaterally. Defense giant Rheinmetall AG announced plans in February to set up a venture in Ukraine to produce much needed 155mm artillery ammunition. Building materials manufacturer Fixit has been putting up a new production site in the west of Ukraine since last year, while chemical company Bayer AG has announced investments in seeds production. Waagner-Biro Bridge Systems, an Austrian company that makes modular steel overpasses that span rivers and valleys, already started some production at a site in western Ukraine. Chief Executive Officer Richard Kerschbaumer said in an interview last year that “there will be plenty of work for decades.” Given where the money will come from, US and European companies are likely to get the lion’s share of the contracts when they come. Turkey, though, is pushing ahead in the meantime. Turkish building contractors have completed 70 projects in Ukraine over the two years of war that were worth around $1 billion, Turkish Trade Minister Omer Bolat said earlier this year. The biggest of them, Onur Group, is repairing blown-up bridges, such as the one at Irpin on the outskirts of Kyiv.

Teaming with South Korea’s Samsung C&T Corp., Onur Group was also building mobile hospitals in Ukraine. The company eventually wants to resume redevelopment of the Dnipro International Airport along with some highway projects. “We’ve got more than 4,000 pieces of machinery here and we’re committed to Ukraine and never considered abandoning it,” said Emre Karaahmetoglu, the general coordinator for the company in Ukraine. Its most pressing challenge is finding enough workers because of army conscription, he said. While competition for contracts is going to be huge, Turkish companies hope their experience of working in countries that have struggled with conflict or corruption will give them an advantage. Istanbul-based Dogus Construction, already in Ukraine for years, is rebuilding three bridges with backing from the UK and expects contracts worth “a couple of billion dollars” from the reconstruction effort one day, according to its country representative, Suha Canatan. As Russia rearms more quickly than Ukraine, the stalemate in the war might not hold for long. President Zelenskiy has been imploring the US to follow Europe and renew its aid package, though even if it does the question is where Ukraine’s allies can source now scarcer resources of ammunition.

But companies say that, whatever happens in the near term, reconstruction must come at some point. More of the corporate mood music is how to make sure they’re prepared for it. Away from Ukraine, for example, Hungarian engineering firm Ganz-Mavag has said part of the rationale for bidding to buy Spanish train maker Talgo SA was to scale up capacity to meet demand in Eastern Europe over the next decade, driven by the Ukrainian reconstruction once it starts. In Mykolaiv, consultants and local authorities are drafting a masterplan that looks ahead to 2050. Much of it remains on paper only as further progress can’t be done before the war ends, said Jesper Karup Pedersen, the technical director and project manager for Cowi, a Danish engineering consultancy working on the Mykolaiv redevelopment. “Many of the projects can be bomb targets,” he said. Often simple tasks like sourcing documents from local authorities are tough because people are whisked off to the front lines, creating gaps in the state administration, he said. Most of the Danish funds for the municipality were so far used to buy generators, water pumps, heaters, and support de-mining efforts in the city whose population shrank since Vladimir Putin’s invasion two years ago. Still, even those first steps are paying off. There are already visible signs that people have started to return to Mykolaiv. At his last visit to the town in January, Danish ambassador Ole Egberg Mikkelsen said he experienced a traffic jam for the first time since the war. Mikkelsen said he hopes Danish companies will one day benefit from their nation’s good reputation in Ukraine as they explore commercial opportunities in the country. “We have the approach that we must do something now,” he said. “We cannot wait for the war to be over and for reconstruction conferences to have taken place.” For sure, new industries are putting down roots, with defense and technology rising in importance and contribution to Ukraine’s economy. Agriculture, the main driver of growth, is undergoing the biggest revamp in decades. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, which has provided €3.8 billion in financing for Ukraine since the war started, noted that the focus should not be only on the money, but also on people, said Beata Javorcik, the lender’s chief economist.

Indeed, the success of the biggest investment project since World War II requires the patience of Ukrainians, and whether Russia can be trusted to adhere to any peace deal, according to Nayyem, the Ukrainian official in Kyiv. “Many people think in terms of ‘the war will end and ...,’ but we do not know when it will end,” Nayyem said. “And even when it ends, what shall we do with such a neighbor? We will definitely need a long time to restore territories that were liberated or on the front line.” https://archive.ph/IV8bS#selection-2347.0-2351.274

mapuc

03-09-24, 02:58 PM

This information was new to me.

The Biden administration was specifically concerned Russia might use a tactical or battlefield nuclear weapon, the officials said

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/03/09/politics/us-prepared-rigorously-potential-russian-nuclear-strike-ukraine/index.html

Markus

Dargo

03-09-24, 03:14 PM

This information was new to me.

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/03/09/politics/us-prepared-rigorously-potential-russian-nuclear-strike-ukraine/index.html

MarkusThat is old news the Russian "nuclear threat" does not mean a nuke ballistic strike, it was mentioned this would be a tactical bomb or a nuclear test all other that you see is on Russian state propaganda TV where they daily destroy NATO tenfold.

Skybird

03-09-24, 04:10 PM

One thing is clear. If people in the West shy away from anything that could weaken the Russians so much that they indeed lose the war and then might do something even worse than what they already have done to Ukraine, then the logical conclusion is that the West will never do anything that would enable the Ukrainians to win. This means that the West already has resigned and accepted the Russians will earn victory in the end, and the West then is even helping to secure it for Russia. By refusing to do what it takes to prevent that.

The Russians are already doing what even a small nuclear bomb can do, even worse. They have razed entire cities to the ground. They have only taken more time than a nuclear bomb would have needed, with at least equal destruction. Their logic is parallel to that of the West: by delaying the war intensity to a lower level than that of nuclear explosions, as they do, they do not provoke a decisive Western response, and even more: they intimidate the West with the threat that they could still do it at a later date. Thus they ensure that the West will not really stand in the way of their victory, but will be content merely to pretend to do so. The West maintains the appearance of being on the morally right side - while in reality it stands on the sidelines and only drives up the price of the Russian victory. Nonetheless, both the West and Russia have long since agreed to sell Ukraine to Russia.

If it is like I just said, it means that they are really only haggling over the price now. But the deal is in principle already agreed on.

I hope I get proven wrong by events. But I refuse to make consequences artificially complicated when in fact they are obvious and simple. I stick to Occam's razor. I judge the Western acting by the consequences it causes - not on words and claims and holy promises. Thats why especially the German acting does not impress me. Babble Olaf plays with marked cards. So does Macronman.

Skybird

03-09-24, 04:27 PM

And the socialist in Rome disguised as the Pope has once again pulled a coup out of the toilet with his cynical proposals. :doh:

mapuc

03-09-24, 06:41 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PQkh_N3BcJU&ab_channel=CombatVeteranReacts

Markus

Jimbuna

03-10-24, 05:37 AM

Is Europe doing enough to help against Russia?

When the widow of the Russian dissident Alexei Navalny addressed the European Parliament recently, she said something striking. "If you really want to defeat Putin, you have to become an innovator," Yulia Navalnaya told MEPs. "And you have to stop being boring."

Being innovative and interesting may be traits not always associated with some European politicians.

But they are having to think differently, not just about how better to support Ukraine but also to increase pressure on Russia.

The shadow of a potential Donald Trump presidency hangs over the continent, raising doubts about America's long-term backing for Ukraine.

A $60bn (£47bn) package of US military support for Ukraine is held up in the House of Representatives. And on the battlefield, Russian forces are beginning to make gains against their less well armed opponents.

Two years on from Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, European capitals have largely maintained their political backing for Kyiv.

In January the European Union agreed in January a €50bn package ($55bn; £43bn) of grants and loans to fund Ukraine's government and public services.

But the EU failed to meet its target of sending one million shells to Ukraine by the beginning of this month.

EU diplomats are still haggling over plans for a new €5bn top-up to the European Peace Facility to buy more weapons for Kyiv. And Nato says that this year about 12 European members may still not meet the alliance's target of spending 2% of national output on defence.

With the diplomatic and military balance is shifting, Europe is having to think creatively about how to support Ukraine and deter future Russian aggression.

There are existing stocks of ammunition and weapons Europe could give to Ukraine.

UK Foreign Secretary David Cameron told the House of Lords this week that instead of decommissioning weapons systems at great expense once they technically pass their expiry dates, allies should give them to Ukraine.

He also said countries in Eastern Europe with "legacy Soviet ammunition" suitable for Ukrainian weapons should release those stocks immediately.

But, as throughout this war, European leaders are still agonising over what weapons to give Kyiv.

The latest row is over Germany's Taurus missiles. These have range of about 300 miles (500km), more than the UK-supplied Storm Shadows being used by Ukraine.

Many allies believe Taurus would give Ukraine the chance to strike deep behind Russian lines.

But German Chancellor Olaf Scholz fears they could also be used against Russian cities and is resisting, fearing escalation.

There are also plans to get Ukraine desperately needed artillery shells. The Czech government agreed a $1.5bn (£1.2bn) deal this week for a consortium of 18 Nato and EU countries to buy 800,000 rounds - both 155mm and 122mm calibre - from outside the EU.

This is a significant shift for more protectionist-minded EU members, especially France. But it will not meet Ukraine's demand for the 2.5m shells it says it needs this year.

Policymakers are also are mulling new ways to increase spending on defence, including a proposal for the European Investment Bank to end its ban on funding defence projects.

There are proposals for European countries to co-operate more on defence procurement, buying arms jointly from manufacturers to drive down costs. Governments are also looking to give defence firms longer-term contracts to boost production in a highly risk adverse industry.

But little will happen overnight. One British minister told me: "One forgets that Dunkirk to D-Day was four years. It takes a long time to generate the mass to go from defence to offence."

Estonia wants all Nato countries to commit - as it has - to give Ukraine at least 0.25% of their output in military support.

This would raise about 120bn euros per year. Although some allies are sympathetic, this idea has yet to win widespread backing.

Some Europe policymakers are also drawing up plans for a form of updated "lend-lease" arrangement to loan weapons to Ukraine, just as the allies did for the USSR during WWII. But these ideas are at an early stage.

Much thought is going into how best to exploit the roughly 300bn euros of frozen Russian assets held in Western financial institutions.

Giving the money outright to Ukraine might be illegal and put European assets at risk in other jurisdictions.

But the EU is looking at a plan to use the profits to fund military support for Ukraine. And the UK is looking at a separate proposal to use the assets as collateral for fast-track reparations for Ukraine.

The aim is not just to raise cash for Ukraine but also level a strategic blow against Russia, hitting its economy hard.

So some European policymakers are thinking laterally. But tensions remain.

Many Eastern European countries are committing more military resource than their Western counterparts. Loose-lipped German officers are upsetting allies by revealing military secrets.

And President Emmanuel Macron of France has ruffled feathers by suggesting the West should consider putting military boots on the ground in Ukraine, thought by many analysts to be an unnecessary row over an implausible option.

Perhaps the biggest disagreement within European capitals is about the long-term challenge from Russia.

A recent poll from the European Council on Foreign Relations think tank suggested while most Europeans support Ukraine, only 1 in 10 think it can win an outright victory.

Some analysts say this is because European governments have not understood the broader challenge from Russia.

"There is no evidence that the highest political level has understood the scale of the threat or tried to explain it to the public," says Keir Giles, senior consulting fellow at Chatham House, a British think tank.

"If action comes too late to avoid disaster, it will have been because of criminal complacency."

So will Europe rise to the challenge? Maybe there was one small hint of change this week.

France has long been criticised for not giving Ukraine enough military support. But President Macron - who once said Russia should not be humiliated - was in bullish form.

"We are surely approaching a moment for Europe in which it will be necessary not to be cowards," he said.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68514995

Reece

03-10-24, 06:07 AM

and so it goes, still all talk and no action!! :doh:

Jimbuna

03-10-24, 06:09 AM

No real surprises there then.

Probably a source of entertainment for Putin.

Reece

03-10-24, 06:53 AM

yeh!! at least someones happy! :oops::roll:

Jimbuna

03-10-24, 08:23 AM

US prepared for Russia's nuclear strike on Ukraine in late 2022

In late 2022, the United States began preparing for the possibility that Russia might launch a nuclear strike against Ukraine. The US administration's fears were based on some intelligence information, states CNN.

"We had to plan so that we were in the best possible position in case this no‑longer unthinkable event actually took place," a senior US administration official told CNN.

According to another US official, from late summer to fall 2022, the US National Security Council convened a series of meetings to develop contingency plans, including for either very clear signs of a nuclear strike in the making or an actual strike.

"How we would respond, how we would try to preempt it, or deter it," the official explained.
The United States believed that the loss of Kherson could provoke Russia to a nuclear strike on Ukraine, as Moscow could see it as an "existential threat," the unnamed American official said. A nuclear strike could also be seen by the Kremlin as a tool to deter Ukraine from further liberation of territories or a potential attack on Russia.

At the time, Russian propaganda was actively spreading a fake news story about a "dirty bomb" that Ukraine was allegedly planning to detonate in order to blame Russia. Later, Western intelligence learned that Russian officials were discussing a nuclear strike. However, the United States did not record any preparations by Russian nuclear forces for a strike, although Washington was not sure that it would be able to learn about the movement of tactical weapons in Russia, as they are difficult to track.

Against the backdrop of the threat, the United States worked with its allies to develop response plans and used them to send Russia a warning of the consequences. Washington also tried to enlist the support of India and China.

Today, according to CNN, US officials believe that the risk of a nuclear strike has decreased.

Last year, speaking at the United Nations, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called for the disarmament of Russia, as terrorists have no right to possess nuclear weapons.

In addition, Russia has moved its nuclear weapons to Belarus. However, self-proclaimed President Alexander Lukashenko will not be able to use them on his own.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/us-prepared-for-russia-s-nuclear-strike-on-ukraine-in-late-2022/ar-BB1jBSui?ocid=msedgntp&pc=U531&cvid=910e9c81edec477fa194739b66bacdba&ei=40

mapuc

03-10-24, 03:33 PM

^ I think they had planned on using nukes, despite what others have said in this thread.

Yes they have used this threat many times. But as it said in the article Ukraine had great momentum and Russia was "on the run"

As another pointed out-They have destroyed so much among civilian buildings that it would look like nukes had been used.

Nukes will be used by the Russian if they lose Crimea and/or Donetsk.

Markus

mapuc

03-10-24, 07:00 PM

How can this be proved ?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1f-XyyQzXp4&ab_channel=CombatVeteranReacts

Markus

Skybird

03-11-24, 06:18 AM

I fear the author is right.

There are increasing signs that Putin will soon win the war.

https://www-focus-de.translate.goog/politik/ausland/ukraine-krise/gastbeitrag-von-gabor-steingart-die-anzeichen-verdichten-sich-dass-putin-bald-gewinnt_id_259748240.html?_x_tr_sl=de&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de

It is obvious that more and more Western lead politicians have given the war away. Even before the Orange blockade, Biden and the Democrats did not do all they could, never did.

This war would have needed grim determination, no matter the cost, like Kennedy showed during Kuba. Brutal power, detemrination and the willingness to show it, to leave no doubt on that one is willing to go all the way - thats the only way how you can negotiate with Sovjets/Russians and hope to get away with it. Force. Superior power. Threat.

Muscle. Not smart wording.

Instead: vain roosters parading around the yard with constant cock-a-doodle-doo, believing that this will keep the wolves away. Ridiculous.

Our defence production by now, by given orders, should produce Russian military production into the ground. Instead, there is not even a consensus to do so in the future. Petty disputes over "Petitessen" and narcissistic sensitivities. Pompous talk-slinging.

NATO can no longer be relied on. And that doesn't mean the Trump issue. Article 5 never was anything more than options for individual national actors to chose anything between diplomatic notes and an armoured corps. There never was any mandatory obligation for anything included.

Ridiculous.

Ukraine is done. And its the West's fault. (Also Ukraine's, due to its inner corruption and internal conflicts in the leadership).

Ironically the Russians from beginning on have been the most predictable variable in all this mess.

The torso that will remain of Ukraine, is heavily wounded, abused, dependent, will see millions of citizens gone away, and uncertain longterm economic perspectives to surirve. All this will fall the Europeans on their feet.

And the Russians will come back to their unfinished business sooner or later. 5-10 years.

Reece

03-11-24, 06:40 AM

So sad Marc! :oops::(:cry:

Skybird

03-11-24, 06:50 AM

So sad Marc! :oops::(:cry:
Sad - and outrageous.

Meanwhile Russia already now produces three times as many artillery shells for the Ukraine warzone than Europe and the US together. Thats hilarious.

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/03/10/politics/russia-artillery-shell-production-us-europe-ukraine/index.html

And the Russian's use of new 1.5 ton glide bombs summons hell and desaster on Ukrainian dfeences and building targets like poowerplants. It seesm the Ukrianains have no defence against them. Their morale is taking a beating, too.

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/03/10/europe/russian-guided-bomb-ukraine-frontline-intl/index.html?iid=cnn_buildContentRecirc_end_recirc

When i add all the many media snippets of comments, informations, news, reports and such together and stitch it all together, I get the picture of that something serious is breaking apart in the Ukrainian resistence currently, and on a deep-rooting, structural level. But that is my subjective perception, and generally across all the picture. I cannot point finger on this and that detail and say, "here, thats the cause". Its not so much just a visible crack in the wall, but a subtle, general vibration of the whole building. Sooner or later every ongoing attrition must lead to structural breaks, however.

The spring mud period coming maybe will slow Russia down, but at least until the "elections" in Russia they will press on. Ukraine may try to hide behind minefields, but different to Russia last summer Ukraine no longer has the artillery to take advantage of Russian units bogging down in these minefields.

mapuc

03-11-24, 09:35 AM

Yes it is indeed sad news.

It sadden me that Russia gets away with their terror against Ukraine

I don't think the West has spoken with a snakes tongue. The problem lay in the Parliament here in the West where some politician is more or less pro-Russian and will do almost anything to prevent their country from sending ammo to Ukraine

And then we have our voters. For the Politicians here it's more important to bow and follow the voters demands than helping a country in need.

When all this is said It wouldn't surprise me at all if NATO decide to send troops to Ukraine-Not combat troops though.

Markus

mapuc

03-11-24, 09:59 AM

Then we have these positive videos

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RYt3D7vAzL0&ab_channel=UkraineMatters

Edit
And some negative video clips
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eMuNmSA8eXc&ab_channel=CombatVeteranReacts
End edit

Markus

Jimbuna

03-11-24, 01:45 PM

Russia produces three times as many missiles for war with Ukraine as US and Europe

Russia is producing almost three times more artillery ammunition than the US and Europe can supply to Kyiv, which is a crucial advantage before a new Russian offensive in Ukraine this year, according to CNN.

Russia is producing approximately 250,000 artillery munitions per month, or about 3 million per year, according to NATO intelligence estimates on Russian defense production provided to CNN, as well as sources familiar with Western attempts to arm Ukraine. In total, the US and Europe can only produce about 1.2 million munitions annually for shipment to Kyiv, a senior European intelligence representative told CNN.

American military aims to produce 100,000 artillery shells per month by the end of 2025 - less than half of Russia's monthly production - and even this figure is currently out of reach as the $60 billion funding for Ukraine has stalled in Congress, said a senior official.
"What we are in now is a production war," said a NATO senior official to CNN. "The outcome in Ukraine depends on how each side is equipped to conduct this war."

Official sources say Russia is currently producing about 10,000 shells per day, while from the Ukrainian side - only 2,000 per day. According to a European intelligence representative, in some places along the thousands of kilometers of front line, this ratio is even worse.

CNN notes that the shortage is observed at the most dangerous moment for military operations in Ukraine since Russia attacked Kyiv in February 2022. American funds for arming Ukraine have run out, and Republican opposition in Congress has effectively blocked funding.

Meanwhile, Russia recently captured the Ukrainian city of Avdiivka and is generally perceived to have the initiative on the battlefield. Ukraine is struggling not only with a shortage of ammunition but also with an increasingly severe shortage of manpower on the front lines.

The US and its allies have provided Ukraine with a range of modern systems, including the M-1 Abrams tank, and soon the F-16 fighter jets. But military analysts say the war will likely be won or lost based on who can produce more artillery shells.

"The number one issue that we’re watching right now is the munitions," said a NATO representative. "It’s those artillery shells, because that’s where Russia really [is] mounting a significant production advantage and mounting a significant advantage on the battlefield."

According to a NATO representative, Russia operates artillery plants around the clock and without weekends, with 12-hour shifts. Currently, about 3.5 million Russians are working in the defense sector, compared to 2-2.5 million before the war. Russia also imports ammunition: last year Iran sent at least 300,000 artillery shells - "probably more than that," said an official - and North Korea provided at least 6,700 containers of ammunition, containing millions of shells.

"Russia has put everything they have in the game," said an intelligence representative. "Their war machine works in full gear."

A rough US equivalent would be if President Joe Biden invoked the Defense Production Act, said an American official, which gives the president the authority to order companies to rapidly produce equipment to support the country's national defense.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/russia-produces-three-times-as-many-missiles-for-war-with-ukraine-as-us-and-europe/ar-BB1jHexY?ocid=msedgntp&pc=U531&cvid=2c40683cee5d43de8a5045561008964e&ei=23

Jimbuna

03-11-24, 01:52 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eMuNmSA8eXc

Jimbuna

03-12-24, 08:46 AM

Russia to start production of new air bombs for strikes on Ukraine - ISW

Recently, Russian forces have been actively shelling frontline settlements with guided aerial bombs. Experts do not rule out the possibility that the aggressor may launch serial production of enhanced guided aerial bombs to expand their use across the front line in Ukraine, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

A spokesperson for the Tavria operational-strategic group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Captain Dmytro Lykhoviy, announced on March 10 that Russian forces had struck Myrnohrad in the Donetsk region with three Universal Multiservice Glide Bombs (UMGB) D-30SN.

The spokesperson stated that the advanced guided glide bombs UMGB D-30SN essentially transformed unguided gravity bombs FAB from Soviet times into guided glide bombs.
The report states that Russian forces had already used unguided glide bombs in January 2024.

Additionally, Russian military bloggers recently claimed that Russian forces in unspecified areas of Ukraine have begun to strike with unguided glide bombs FAB UMGB, in contrast to the use of unguided glide bombs with unified planning and correction modules.

The guided glide bombs UMGB have a guidance system that includes a jam-resistant GLONASS/GPS receiver Komet and complex wings similar to the Kh-101 cruise missile.

Bloggers noted that Russian forces could launch guided floating bombs UMGB from aircraft and ground-based multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS) Tornado-S and Smerch. Currently, Russian aviation launches UMGB without rocket engines, but in the future, the aggressor plans to use such bombs with rocket engines.

"Russian milbloggers claimed that UMGB guided glide bombs with a jet engine and fuel tank, currently absent from aerial glide bombs with UMPC, will allow Russian aviation to drop guided glide bombs from a lower altitude similar to air-to-surface cruise missiles and increase the maximum strike range to 80-90 kilometers," the report said.

It is noted that the increased flight range of guided glide bombs UMGB will allow Russian aviation to increase the depth of strikes on Ukrainian positions without the risk of detection or destruction by the Air Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

"Russian milbloggers claimed that the Russian defense industrial base (DIB) is attempting to mass-produce UMPB-guided glide bombs. Russian forces will likely attempt to serialize production of UMPB guided glide bombs and increase their use across the frontline," the report said.

During the night of March 10, the Russian military shelled Myrnohrad in the Donetsk region.

Initially, the Ukrainian Armed Forces reported shelling with S-300 surface-to-air missiles. However, it was later revealed that the aggressors used new glide bombs UMGB D-30SN for the shelling. These are old high-explosive aviation bombs transformed into guided aviation bombs with additional planning functions and additional propulsion units.

Additionally, the Ukrainian military recently practiced targeting enemy aircraft at a distance of over 150 kilometers. However, the results of this operation have not been reported.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/russia-to-start-production-of-new-air-bombs-for-strikes-on-ukraine-isw/ar-BB1jG7p5?ocid=msedgntp&pc=U531&cvid=9cb9dd6f839849d795f7411e7ff78cf3&ei=31

Dargo

03-12-24, 04:47 PM

White House expected to send more ATACMS munitions to UkraineThe White House is expected to announce as soon as Tuesday that it will send a new package of weapons worth $300 million to Ukraine, and it will include a number of Army Tactical Missile Systems, according to U.S. officials with knowledge of the discussions.

The package will include a number of the Anti-Personnel/Anti-Materiel, or APAM, an older version of the long-range ATACMS, which travels 100 miles and carries warheads containing hundreds of cluster bomblets, according to one of the officials. All were granted anonymity to speak ahead of an announcement.

The tranche will also include additional rounds for the 155mm howitzers and the Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System, according to that official and one other U.S. official. The U.S. first sent a first shipment of mid-range ATACMS in September... https://www.politico.com/news/2024/03/12/white-house-aid-package-ukraine-00146487?2

Ukraine drone hits one of RussiaÂ’s biggest oil refineriesUkraine has mounted one of the most wide-ranging attacks inside Russia in months, hitting energy sites and a major oil refinery in drone strikes on at least seven regions. More than two dozen drones were reported over central Russia, with the defence ministry on Tuesday claiming to have intercepted most over regions bordering Ukraine. But the strikes also caused big fires at two major energy infrastructure sites inside Russia, significantly damaging one of the countryÂ’s biggest oil refineries.

...

In addition to the drone strikes overnight, two armed militia units based in Ukraine and backed by Kyiv Â— the Russian Volunteer Corps and Free Russia Legion Â— made incursions from Ukraine into the Belgorod and Kursk regions of Russia. The group of anti-Kremlin fighters has previously broken across the border into Russia leading to skirmishes with the Russian army. Russian pro-Kremlin military bloggers on Tuesday said several groups of armed men on pick-up trucks stormed the border, with some reporting gun battles. The Free Russia Legion posted a video claiming to show its tanks crossing the border at night. Â“We are coming to rescue you . . . from dictatorship,Â” a group leader said in a video. In another video, the group showed what it said was a Russian armoured personnel carrier being destroyed by its fighters... https://www.ft.com/content/4bcaf063-99f7-4e60-ac4a-e58c87b1c8a3

What do we know about the Â‘Siberian BattalionÂ’ that reportedly crossed into Russia?In the early hours of March 12, Russian state media sounded the alarm. A number of Ukrainian military units consisting of Russian fighters reportedly attempted to cross from Ukraine into Russia. The Russian Defense Ministry claimed that it "thwarted Kyiv's attempt to make a breakthrough into the Russian border territory in the Belgorod and Kursk oblasts," adding that the incursion took place "simultaneously in three directions." Meanwhile, the units allegedly taking part in the attack say that the operation is ongoing.

While this wasn't the first time units consisting of Russians fighting for Ukraine have allegedly crossed into Russian territory, this time a new formation had its first run. Announced in October and training throughout the winter, the new Siberian Battalion took part in the incursion, along with the earlier formed Freedom of Russia Legion. The Siberian Battalion was the third unit established by Ukraine for Russian nationals who want to join the fight against the Kremlin. The battalion was meant primarily for ethnic minorities coming from Siberia, including Buryats, Yakuts, Tuvans, and others.

Siberia, a cold North Asian region that covers 77% of RussiaÂ’s territory, is home to a variety of ethnic minorities that have been largely disenfranchised by the Russian state. Nine of the 10 poorest Russian regions, in terms of GRP per capita, are regions with a substantial minority population. Out of them, five are located in Siberia. Adding another Russian unit to the Ukrainian Armed Forces is more about information warfare than growing UkraineÂ’s battlefield capacity, experts say.

"Russian volunteer battalions fighting alongside Ukrainians are an aspect of the war which may make little direct difference on the front line, but it will have a disproportionate impact in terms of information activities, morale and influence on Russia's population and its leadership," Keir Giles, senior consulting fellow of the Russia and Eurasia Programme at Chatham House, told the Kyiv Independent. https://kyivindependent.com/what-we-know-about-siberian-battalion-that-reportedly-crossed-into-russia/

mapuc

03-13-24, 02:27 PM

The Ukrainian should have a lot more soldiers
Sending many more into Russia than they have

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CT-97ujfhd8&ab_channel=CombatVeteranReacts

Markus

Skybird

03-13-24, 06:27 PM

Random Twitter quote, based on a report by Newsweek from Decembre.

155mm shells rose in price from $2,700 per piece to €4,000 per piece. For russians, a 152mm shell costs $500-$600 per piece. The American company Vista Outdoor, which owns the manufacturers of firearms and cartridges Remington, CCI, Alliant Powder, Federal, reported the possibility of a global shortage of gunpowder. So next year the company will be forced to raise the prices of ammunition by at least 10%. This was reported by Newsweek.
The German defense concern Rheinmetall has increased the prices of 155mm ammunition required by the conflict in Ukraine by more than 1.5 times since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, Welt reported on Tuesday. According to a document obtained by Welt, Rheinmetall will deliver 333,333 rounds of ammunition at an average price of 3,600 euros per round as part of the contract. (for reference, the French have a 155-mm projectile that costs more than 4,000 euros, while the production capacity allows the production of no more than 650 projectiles per month).
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPR/status/1737045528955777077
The Europeans have agreed on a 5 bn Euros military fond for Ukraine. (Germany has pledged for the runnign year 7 bn). The germans wanted it that bilateral military aid and funding for that will be counted for national contributions into that fond. France wanted that European produced (=French produced) items shall be given priority.

Well.

No decisions on fundamental increases in military production capacities.

What there has been decided in past 12 months or less regarding boosting military production capacities, is way too little. The Russians produce, by factors, more - and, by factors, cheaper.

The lack of serious interest is obvious. Correcting this seems to be not really intended. Symbolic acts, if they serve the national economy - but no substantial changes.

mapuc

03-13-24, 07:11 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=84geg6o6rCI&ab_channel=BeauoftheFifthColumn

Markus

Reece

03-14-24, 05:02 AM

^ Agree 100% :timeout:
Good on ya Denmark! :up:

Jimbuna

03-14-24, 05:49 AM

Putin is ‘sensing weakness in the West’ after nuclear threat, say experts

RUSSELS – Russian President Vladimir Putin’s threats to use nuclear weapons against Nato are “deeply worrying”, but appear aimed at intimidation rather than warning of an imminent risk, according to experts.

Mr Putin on Wednesday said that Russia is ready to use nuclear weapons if its sovereignty or independence is threatened and boasted that its nuclear arsenal was “much more” advanced than that of the United States. It was the latest of his many nuclear warnings since launching a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. In his state-of-the-nation address last month, he said further Western involvement in the conflict would risk nuclear war.

Patricia Lewis, who heads Chatham House’s International Security Programme, says that while the threats are chilling, they are not having the desired effect on the West. “Putin’s clearly trying to frighten us, but the West has not been spooked – and that’s a good thing,” she told i. “But the idea that you would use nuclear weapons just seems bonkers for people. You know he’s not going to do anything so stupid.”
Mr Putin has repeatedly invoked the taboo of nuclear weapon use since 2022, but Dr Lewis says he is trying to break Western resolve, particularly after French President Emmanuel Macron’s suggestion that Nato troops could be sent to support Ukraine’s military.

“Putin is perhaps sensing the weakness or uncertainty in the West about the outcome, and the lack of enthusiasm as time goes on. He thinks he can outwait the West, he thinks they’ve got a limited attention span, that they’ll get distracted by the next thing, which might be Gaza now,” she said.

Russia has the world’s largest nuclear arsenal with just under 6,000 nuclear weapons, and can launch its nuclear weapons from land-based missiles, submarines or planes.

At the start of his invasion of Ukraine, Mr Putin ordered his military to put Russia’s nuclear deterrence forces on high alert, and in September 2022, said he was prepared to use nuclear weapons as he warned the West: “I’m not bluffing.”

Former Prime Minister Boris Johnson has said Mr Putin threatened him with a missile strike in a phone call in the run-up to the invasion, telling him it “would only take a minute”.

British officials have said there are no signs Russia is preparing to use a tactical nuclear weapon in or around Ukraine despite the recent bellicose statements. But the intimidation has had its effects, with Germany’s Space Command chief, Major General Michael Traut, warning last month about the danger of a nuclear weapon detonation in orbit by Russia, and tech billionaire Elon Musk pulling back satellite support for Ukraine, citing nuclear risks.

Florian Eblenkamp, an advocacy officer at the Geneva-based International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons, said that even though the nuclear threats have been empty so far, they are still alarming.

“I think it’s safe to say that the risk of nuclear use has certainly gone up since 2022,” he said. “It’s hard to quantify that, of course, but even 1 per cent risk is unacceptable – and it’s deeply worrying that the nuclear option remains on the table.”

Andrey Baklitskiy, senior researcher at the United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research in Geneva, said Mr Putin’s nuclear threats were often issued when Ukraine’s Western allies were debating sending weapons to Kyiv.

“We have seen him issue red lines but these have been quite fluid,” he said. “So Russia said there should be no heavy weaponry, no missile systems, no fighter jets, no tanks, and so forth. All this has been supplied, but none of it triggered any big response on the Russian side.”
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/putin-is-sensing-weakness-in-the-west-after-nuclear-threat-say-experts/ar-BB1jQ1wi?ocid=msedgntp&pc=U531&cvid=097d9235f47743a194f63cfb71431e8d&ei=67

Skybird

03-14-24, 06:45 AM

@ Markus

The video: +1 :up:

And Denmark continues to put us others to shame. They seem to really have red the sign of the times.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68557038

Skybird

03-14-24, 07:17 AM

If you thought Colonel Reisner were a bit pessimistic, then wait until you listened to this former German and NATO general. He speaks relatively slow, so autotranslation subtitles work well. Sobering.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MufZDtW49Qg

I dont beleive Putin wants to negotiate a real perace deal. At best what can be acchieved - and not before the American elections and the circus afterwards are done and over - is a seize fire and a freezing of the frontlines.

Seen this way, the Danish decision to support Ukriane by giving it all its own artillery can be seen as gallantry and honesty - whether it really is matching "realism" - thats an entirely different question.

I already said months ago that I think that in principle the war is decided. Against Ukraine. What we see now is just the time it takes everybody to let that sink in. And in 2022 I said that the biog chance to win was to kickl, bomb and shoot the hellm out of Russia in the first motnhs of the war, for that the early ihase was the only rela chance to deliver Russia such a desastrous kick in the azz that until today they still would fly around Earth in a long lasting orbit. Woth not acchieving that, no matter the bvreaosns for it, the war in principle was lost because from that early time window on the scales were dropping in faovur of Russia which then continued by making its numerical and industrial superiority felt. And since then it mounts the pressure more and more and more. And nothing the West has tried has eased that pressure. And Ukraine - as I see it, it stands, in more and more parts of the battlezones it kneels with its back against the abyss. West of Avdijivka it is said there is a real big risk now for a strategic, operational breakthrough of the Russians. The Ukrainians currently seem to flush pratcially evertyhing into that sector that they still have. They are desperate, but their defence structures there were improvised within a short number of weeks, whereas the Russian defences that stopped the Ukrianian offensive last year had been erected over 7-9 months.

Over 50% of the Ukrainian yearly fiscal budget - is sponsored by the West. Kuijat remidns of it, but you can find the numbers elswhere, too. Over 50% of the civilian, non-military budget of the state is poaid by the West. De facto it is neither a autonomously surviving economic entity anymore, nor a sovereign state. And next comes the demand that the West also pays for the rebuilding. And if Ukraine would join the EU, it would immediately become the by far biggest receiver of subsidies, much more than currently Poland. Up to over 40% of the EU budget may end up in Ukraine.

We should not have gotten involved in the first (Ukraine is no NATO member, mind you) - or have started a full-scale entering of the war and send everything NATO had into Ukraine and leaving the Russians in no doubt what would happen if they dare to use nukes. Myself, I would have chosen option 2. Though with an angry fist in the pocket, because Ukraine is no NATO member. But NATO simpyl could not afford to let happen what is happening now - the demaskign of its inner structural wekaness and political indifference. And these are what will cost us very dearly in the future. The reputation of NATO is destroyed. I forsee a Trump win with a probability of 55:45, something in that range. He will just give NATO the rest.

There is a new Westenr priority now that is needed, and practically every political actor of power is denying it: massive self-rearming AQAP. We have failed to stop the Russians in Ukraine. Now the next Russian attack will find us on our own soils.

We chattering stupids.

P.S.
Kujat is not without controversy here in Germany. And he was too close with Merkel, for my taste. I know all that, I am aware of it. And I don't necessarily agree with some of the details of his statements, but on the whole I think his assessment is mercilessly realistic.

mapuc

03-14-24, 10:50 AM

@ Markus

The video: +1 :up:

And Denmark continues to put us others to shame. They seem to really have red the sign of the times.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68557038

He should have given credit to The Netherlands too They have also shown a will to help Ukraine more than one could ask for.

Markus

Skybird

03-14-24, 10:52 AM

[Focus] According to information from "Business Insider", an explosive analysis by German intelligence services is currently circulating in the German government. Troop movements, military restructuring and the deployment of new missiles, particularly in western Russia, would suggest that Putin is preparing for a fundamental conflict with the West.

Specifically, according to current observations of the situation in Russia (https://www.focus.de/orte/russland/), it "can no longer be ruled out" that Putin will attack at least parts of NATO territory "from 2026", for example in the Baltic states or Finland. The German services have reportedly not yet made any such specific statements.

Just a few days ago, Lithuanian intelligence services also stated in their annual report that they believe Russia is preparing for a confrontation with NATO. The Kremlin had initiated a comprehensive military reform and was gradually expanding its capabilities towards the West.

According to information from "Business Insider", NATO headquarters also shares the concern about Russia's growing military strength and a further confrontation, Business Insider learned. However, this does not necessarily have to lead to war. In the medium term, US intelligence services do not see any danger of an attack, they say. According to them, it would take another five to eight years for Putin's armed forces to regain the military strength they had before the war in Ukraine.

--------------------

An RAF plane carrying British Defense Secretary Grand Shapps was the victim of a Russian hacker attack. On the return flight from Poland (https://www.focus.de/orte/polen/), the plane's GPS signal and internet connection were interrupted for around 30 minutes. A source told the Mirror (https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/russian-hackers-jam-signal-raf-32354752) that this was a "completely irresponsible" action by the Russian regime.

In addition to Shapps and his team, a select group of journalists are also said to have been present. However, security was not compromised at any time. As reported by The Express, the pilots had directly informed the passengers that other navigation options were also available.

A source from the Ministry of Defense said: "Although the RAF is well prepared for such things, this still poses an unnecessary risk to civilian aircraft, putting people's lives at risk. There is no excuse for this. On Russia's part, this is very irresponsible."

Since the beginning of the war, Russian forces have repeatedly used radio jamming to attack Ukrainian aircraft.

ET2SN

03-14-24, 12:19 PM

If you thought Colonel Reisner were a bit pessimistic..

Seen this way, the Danish decision to support Ukriane by giving it all its own artillery can be seen as gallantry and honesty - whether it really is matching "realism" - thats an entirely different question.

I already said months ago that I think that in principle the war is decided. Against Ukraine. What we see now is just the time it takes everybody to let that sink in. And in 2022 I said that the biog chance to win was to kickl, bomb and shoot the hellm out of Russia in the first motnhs of the war, for that the early ihase was the only rela chance to deliver Russia such a desastrous kick in the azz that until today they still would fly around Earth in a long lasting orbit. Woth not acchieving that, no matter the bvreaosns for it, the war in principle was lost because from that early time window on the scales were dropping in faovur of Russia which then continued by making its numerical and industrial superiority felt. And since then it mounts the pressure more and more and more. And nothing the West has tried has eased that pressure...

We should not have gotten involved in the first (Ukraine is no NATO member, mind you) - or have started a full-scale entering of the war and send everything NATO had into Ukraine and leaving the Russians in no doubt what would happen if they dare to use nukes. Myself, I would have chosen option 2. Though with an angry fist in the pocket, because Ukraine is no NATO member. But NATO simpyl could not afford to let happen what is happening now - the demaskign of its inner structural wekaness and political indifference. And these are what will cost us very dearly in the future. The reputation of NATO is destroyed. I forsee a Trump win with a probability of 55:45, something in that range. He will just give NATO the rest.

There is a new Westenr priority now that is needed, and practically every political actor of power is denying it: massive self-rearming AQAP. We have failed to stop the Russians in Ukraine. Now the next Russian attack will find us on our own soils.

We chattering stupids.

Sorry, I didn't intend to chop your post up, I just wanted to pair it down a little.

Sky, I'm leaning towards the idea that the goal is to bring back the old Warsaw Pact. Just a reminder, um, on which side of Germany do you live? :hmmm:

You might want to keep some optimism. :yep: It couldn't hurt.
Worst case, you can crash on my couch if no one else claims you. :yeah:
Assuming, of course, we all don't get vaporized. :o

Meanwhile, keep an open mind on the US election. One truth at the moment is that Trump's party is in the process of burning themselves down while polarizing the voters. :yep: That makes it tough to raise money from the big donors (chaos is BAD for business). I'm keeping my fingers crossed that our national fever will break. :yeah:

Our "neo patriots" like to yell, but they also enjoy convenience. :O: Its very hard to order a pizza or some Chinese food in the middle of a full-blown revolution. Eventually, they will wake up and realize that they're burning down their own house to spite their neighbors. On a related note, I'm not seeing signs that our military is willing to embrace a dictator. A tyrant, maybe, but that "dear leader" crap isn't going to fly. :03:

Think about it, NATO is stronger now than it was three years ago. :Kaleun_Wink:

Skybird

03-14-24, 12:52 PM

Think about it, NATO is stronger now than it was three years ago.
That could be argued. What has been given away - so far has mostly not been replenished. For most of what is missing not even orders have been placed.

You are right, I am not optimistic. Nor am I pessimistic. I belong to this kind of strange people for whom the glass is neither half full nor half empty - but twice as big as it has to be for its current fill. In other words: optimism leads me nowhere. Realism does.

We have been optimistic. For years and decades. See where it has got us.

I refer to Gen. Zalushnji's essay in The Economist that brought him so deep into trouble with Zelenskji. But the general was right. He saw it coming. And he did not like what he saw.

Dargo

03-14-24, 12:54 PM

No decisions on fundamental increases in military production capacities.Rheinmetall plans to open at least 4 plants in Ukraine (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/03/14/7446511/)
"Armin Papperger, CEO of the German armament concern Rheinmetall, has announced plans to open at least four plants in Ukraine. He made this statement on 14 March during the presentation of the company’s 2023 results."

Rheinmetall CEO Papperger announced today that they plan to increase their production of artillery ammunition to 1.1 million shells per year by 2027. This will be possible due to the new plants already being built (Unterlüß) and planned (Ukraine and Lithuania). Furthermore, Papperger announced that Germany is likely to award Rheinmetall a new framework contract for the production and delivery of up to 2.2 million shells of artillery ammunition (10-year term). This new framework contract was most likely already announced by Minister of Defence Pistorius on the 25th of January 2024 and will also include deliveries to Ukraine.

I see decisions being made maybe slow, but that is because companies like Rheinmetall need guaranties for setting up new production lines the shortage for resources for this kind of ammo is globally everybody is making products because of this war. That Russia can produce faster is because in an authoritarian system they take over the production that is not possible in democracies. Russia production is still not enough to meet its needs, the West is just starting, and we have enough money to outproduce Russia in the long term.

Dargo

03-14-24, 01:52 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6fpybnhIIws

Robert Fox, Defence Analyst at The Independent, is surprising for me on the Ukraine offensive last summer (around 8:00)

Jimbuna

03-14-24, 02:33 PM

Three EU countries oppose purchase of ammunition for Ukraine with frozen Russian assets

European Union Member States have opposed the plan of the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, to use the proceeds from frozen Russian assets to purchase weapons for Ukraine, according to Politico.

The agency notes that this is happening against rumors that the proposal to freeze assets will be presented closer to the EU leaders' summit next week.

During Wednesday's meeting of the envoys of the 27 EU countries, an unnamed European official revealed that Malta, Luxembourg, and Hungary have voiced their reservations about using the income from Russian assets to purchase ammunition for Ukraine.

According to them, von der Leyen's desire to use the money to replenish Ukraine's diminishing weapon supplies has complicated the negotiations, as a consensus was reached that they should go towards recovery.

Lately, the issue of confiscating Russian assets for the benefit of Ukraine has become increasingly relevant amid the lack of new assistance from the United States.

In total, about $300 billion of Russian assets have been frozen in Western countries since the beginning of the war.

Recently, the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, proposed to redirect Russian assets to military aid for Ukraine.

On March 7, the Ukrainian government held a meeting regarding the confiscation of assets of the aggressor country.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/three-eu-countries-oppose-purchase-of-ammunition-for-ukraine-with-frozen-russian-assets-politico/ar-BB1jSHvr?ocid=msedgntp&pc=U531&cvid=1df1956086464d6eaf637eb3a226d061&ei=14

ET2SN

03-14-24, 11:16 PM

That could be argued. What has been given away - so far has mostly not been replenished. For most of what is missing not even orders have been placed.

You are right, I am not optimistic. Nor am I pessimistic. I belong to this kind of strange people for whom the glass is neither half full nor half empty - but twice as big as it has to be for its current fill. In other words: optimism leads me nowhere. Realism does.

We have been optimistic. For years and decades. See where it has got us.

I refer to Gen. Zalushnji's essay in The Economist that brought him so deep into trouble with Zelenskji. But the general was right. He saw it coming. And he did not like what he saw.

OK, I'll refer to Sweden joining NATO. :up:
Think about why that's a big deal. What makes Sweden famous? Chocolate and Banks. They USED to be neutral so their banks could do business with anyone who showed up. They could also produce arms for anyone who had the cash. THAT has changed. :yep:

Skybird

03-15-24, 04:52 AM

OK, I'll refer to Sweden joining NATO. :up:
Think about why that's a big deal. What makes Sweden famous? Chocolate and Banks. They USED to be neutral so their banks could do business with anyone who showed up. They could also produce arms for anyone who had the cash. THAT has changed. :yep:
Yes, an unmovable aircraft carrier in the Baltic. Still. You can take it for granted that I am not convinced this really makes NATO stronger in combat power. Lets put it this way: the NATO Sweden finally joined is a much weaker NATO than the one they applied for membership almost two years before.

In the end what its about is combat power NATO can project in the three small baltic states or Poland, Czechia, Romania, Hungary - and that outlook is grim. Or do you want to get rescued by one of Germany's now famous phantom brigades...?

Currently the intel services of Estonia, Germany and Lithuania are briefing their governments on their conclusion that Russia is definitely preparing for attack on NATO countires - and much earlier than the US think possible, in as early as 3 years. They restructure their forces and commands, and relocate units and groups, and currently stream A-G and A-A missiles towards their border areas with Russia. Putin said loud and clearly he wants the former Warsaw Pact satellites back. Who is daredevil enough to say he doe snot mean it, after Ukraine? The man ahs waged severla wars altready, and announced his intention of genocide on Ukraine before he struck into Ukraine. All three mentioned intel agencies warn tactical nuclear attacks must be expected from day one on, if the Russians indeed attack, I suspect on airbases and CCCI centres. And now tell me, where in Europe is NATO currently prepared to repell an attack of the intensity we see in Ukraine? Nowhere. European ground forces for the most are scattered all across the continent, far away from possible frontlines, and that all members will join article 5 being called up - is questionable.

Better be ready and finding that nothing happened, than getting found by war and not being ready. But ready we must be. We are far from it.

And with the hesitating, slow rearmamanet NATO may run over the next years, Russia knows that NATO will only get stronger, in tiny steps, that way. So why should they delay the attack 6-10 years as the Americans think is possible? Better strike as early as you can. And they already are in war production.

We have underestimated the Russians fundamentally. We better stop that. Now.

Jimbuna

03-15-24, 07:34 AM

Meanwhile.....does anybody know of a bookie who will give any odds on Putin failing to get re-elected? :)

Russia election 2024: Voting begins in election Putin is bound to win

Voting has begun in Russia's presidential election, which is all but certain to hand Vladimir Putin another six years in power.

Ballots will be cast over three days, even though the result is not in doubt as he has no credible opponent.

Polling stations opened in the Kamchatka Peninsula, Russia's easternmost region, at 08:00 local time on Friday (20:00 GMT on Thursday) and will finally close in the westernmost Kaliningrad exclave at 20:00 on Sunday.

It was at a grand military awards ceremony last December that Vladimir Putin, 71, told the Russian public he would stand for the presidency for a fifth time.

At the solemn event, held in one of the Kremlin's most opulent halls, Russia's leader of 24 years had just handed out top honours to soldiers who had taken part in Russia's "special military operation" in Ukraine.

He was chatting with a small group of participants when the commander of a pro-Russian unit in Ukraine's occupied Donetsk region approached him.

"We need you, Russia needs you!" declared Lt-Col Artyom Zhoga, asking him to run as a candidate in Russia's forthcoming presidential election. Everyone voiced their support.

Vladimir Putin nodded: "Now is the time for making decisions. I will be running for the post of president of the Russian Federation."

His spokesman Dmitry Peskov later described the decision to run as "absolutely spontaneous". But the Kremlin rarely leaves its choreography to chance.

Instead, straight away its well-oiled media machine swung into action.

On all state channels, 71-year-old President Putin was promoted as a national leader who stood head and shoulders above any potential rivals.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68505228

Skybird

03-15-24, 07:43 AM

Skybird

03-15-24, 07:55 AM

And a new low in Russia's already impressive record oin human rights violations and war crimes: they obviously force kidneapped Ukrianain teenagers into the Russian military when they turned 18, and send them to fight in Ukraine.

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/03/14/europe/ukrainian-teenagers-russian-soldiers-cmd-intl/index.html

There are also fresh reports on widespread and conbstantly happening daily torutre of Ukrainian prisoners, every day, over months, by beating them up, and electroshocking their genitals.

Genocide does include not just slitting throats and destroying culture and identity and langauge, but also annihilating individual psyches. If ever being released, these victims of wonderful Russian civilkization will wlak as living zombies amongst the living, a life-long wanrign to thiose aorudn what happens to you if you resist Russia. Same applies to systematic mass rapings. These torturings are not random or misdeeds by local commanders, they are systematic, they are ordered for much higher above in the hierarchy, they are integral part of the doctrine. They are meant as terror against the general population.

Jimbuna

03-15-24, 08:53 AM

Europe split clouds Macron talks with Scholz in Berlin

French President Emmanuel Macron has had talks with Germany's Olaf Scholz in Berlin after a rift was exposed over Europe's response to Russia's war in Ukraine.

The French leader has warned the "security of Europe and the French is at stake" and if Russia wins Europe's credibility will be "reduced to zero".

But Mr Scholz has been far more cautious, ruling out the deployment of Germany's Taurus cruise missiles.

Ukraine faces a critical arms shortage.

The German chancellor has come under pressure to extend his government's help, because a $60bn (£47bn; €55bn) US military aid package for Ukraine has been blocked in Congress by Republicans on the right.

Germany remains Europe's biggest source of military aid for Ukraine, but Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, who joined the two leaders in Berlin later, said it was now up to their three countries to "mobilise all of Europe" to provide Ukraine with help.

"True solidarity with Ukraine? Less words, more ammunition," he posted on social media on Friday.

Their meeting came as a Russian missile attack on the southern Ukrainian port city of Odesa killed at least 14 people and left 46 other wounded, according to the regional head. Among those killed and wounded were emergency medical teams.

As members of Ukraine's DSNS emergency service arrived to search for casualties and put out fires, more Russian rockets reportedly landed at the scene and the DSNS released several photos of wounded colleagues.

Differences over the response to the war have deepened between Paris and Berlin in recent weeks, after the German chancellor said long-range Taurus missiles would need German soldiers on the ground in Ukraine to look after them and that was a limit that he was not prepared to cross.

President Macron has equally angered some of his European partners by suggesting that sending Western troops could not be ruled out.

In an extended live interview on French TV on Thursday night he said it was not his wish, although "all these options are possible".

Stressing that France was a force for peace, he warned that Russia was seeking to extend its power and would not stop now: "If we leave Ukraine alone, if we let Ukraine lose this war, then for sure Russia will threaten Moldova, Romania and Poland."

Ahead of Friday's meeting of the three leaders, billed as a bid to revive the so-called "Weimar Triangle", the German chancellor told Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelensky over the phone that the summit was of great importance to "organise as much support as possible for Ukraine".

Mr Zelensky went on social media to say he had told the German leader that Ukraine's priorities were "armoured vehicles, artillery, and air defence".

Nato Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg warned on Thursday that Ukrainians were "not running out of courage, they are running out of ammunition", more than two years after Russia's full-scale invasion began.

He said the shortage was one of the reasons why Russia had made recent advances on the battlefield, and he called on Nato allies to provide Ukraine with what it needed.

A Czech-led initiative to source weapons from outside Europe has already raised enough funds to buy at least 300,000 shells and Prague officials say the first deliveries will arrive by June at the latest.

Russia's military captured the eastern town of Avdiivka after months of trying in February and Ukraine's commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said on a visit to the area on Friday that Russian forces had been trying to break through Ukrainian lines "for several days in a row".

"Russian advances are supported by intense artillery fire and the active use of spotter drones and drones capable of dropping munitions."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68573441

Jimbuna

03-15-24, 09:08 AM

'Stalin-style purges could follow election'

An American financier who worked in Moscow after the fall of the Soviet Union and author of two books on Russia says Russia could see Stalin-style purges after the election

Bill Browder, who has been a vocal critic of Vladimir Putin for years, told Sky News: "At the moment Putin kills individuals, but what he hasn’t done is round up and kill large quantities of people in opposition and media.

"He kills individuals to make a point, but that could change. We could see the gulags properly set up and see thousands if not tens of thousands of people dragged off from their apartments overnight the way they were under Stalin.

"We could also see a massive increase in assassinations of his enemies at home and abroad."

Discussing Mr Putin’s position more broadly, he said: "Basically Putin is desperate to stay in power, there is no way he can leave power without going to jail, losing his money and potentially dying."

"First of all, he needs to have his dictatorship renewed for more time and once he is finished with this fake election he can carry on with his repression.

"He can go on to do much worse things than he has done before, because there isn't even the international community looking over his shoulder any more."

"I think we are quickly moving towards a North Korea type of situation in Russia, that's what Vladimir Putin is now."

As leader of the former Soviet Union, Joseph Stalin oversaw the murders of hundreds of thousands of people during the 1930s in a campaign to consolidate his power.

Skybird

03-15-24, 12:07 PM

As leader of the former Soviet Union, Joseph Stalin oversaw the murders of hundreds of thousands of people during the 1930s in a campaign to consolidate his power.
Eh, millions. Estimations range as high as 60 millions.

Jimbuna

03-15-24, 01:09 PM

They probably lost count eventually :D

Jimbuna

03-15-24, 01:21 PM

WARNING: LONG READ

Election booths vandalized in Russia as citizens refuse to back Putin

Russian citizens have conducted a string of explosive protests in defiance of what critics believe will be a rigged presidential referendum in favor of Vladimir Putin as voting opened on Friday. Shocking video purported to show a woman dousing a Moscow voting booth in flammable liquid before setting it on fire and recording the drama on her smartphone. The fire was promptly extinguished and the woman detained, according to local media. But similar acts of vandalism continued around the country, with a voter setting a ballot box alight in Khanty Mansi region in Siberia, according to local reports. In Saint Petersburg, a woman threw a Molotov cocktail at a school being used as a voting station, according to electoral authorities, while an explosive device was detonated at a polling station in Russian-occupied southern Ukraine.

Five people in at least four regions poured dye into ballot boxes, and another was detained for lighting fireworks inside the polling station. As citzens turn out to vote between March 15 and 17, critics of incumbent president Vladimir Putin have turned out in brave defiance to undermine polling efforts. Running effectively unchallenged, the 71-year-old Kremlin chief is almost certain to secure another six-year term with any legitimate political opponents in jail, in exile or in the ground after his fiercest of opponents, Alexei Navalny, died in a remote Arctic penal colony last month. Russian police detained at least eight people Friday for acts of vandalism at polling stations on the first day of voting in presidential elections, officials said. Authorities did not say if the protests were directed against longtime leader Vladimir Putin, and state-media reports said voting was 'continuing as normal'.

In the Chelyabinsk region, police detained a man who tried to set firecrackers off at a polling station, the TASS news agency reported, citing the regional government. And in a school being used for polling in Kogalym, 'an unsuccessful attempt was made to set fire to a stationary ballot box using a Molotov cocktail,' the region's election commission said. The suspect was in her 20s, electoral official Maxim Meiksin said on Telegram. 'The unlawful actions were promptly stopped by police officers. No one was injured,' he added. An explosive device was detonated at a polling station in Russian-occupied southern Ukraine but caused no deaths. 'In Skadovsk, an improvised explosive device was planted in a rubbish bin in front of a polling station. It detonated. There are no casualties or injuries,' Moscow's electoral commission in the occupied Kherson region said.

Russia has enforced voting in occupied parts of Ukraine, drawing ire from Putin-opposed residents. Russian forces also said that Kyiv had shelled polling stations in the occupied city of Kakhovka. In what did appear to be a politically motivated act, a 'resident of Moscow set fire to a voting booth at a polling station in the south-eastern administrative district,' Moscow with a Twinkle reported this afternoon. 'She poured flammable liquid, set it on fire and began filming on her phone. 'The fire was quickly extinguished. The woman was detained.' In another clip, a woman was seen pouring green dye into a ballot box in Moscow. The woman was reportedly detained and a case opened under 'obstruction of the exercise of voting right or the work of election commissions'. She would be taken to Russia's investigative committee department for 'interrogation', local media claimed. Russian outlet Siren reported earlier today that polling booths appeared to be using 'disappearing ink' on ballot sheets, which is erased 'when heated'.

'The inscription disappears when heated, although the pen looks ordinary,' a Russian reader from Kursk told the outlet. 'They told everyone to be silent and only put down these pens from the boxes they brought.' A reader from Rostov-on-Don also claimed ink evaporated when introduced to heat. Video appeared to show crosses on a ballot sheet expressing preference disappearing when put near the flame from a disposable lighter. State-run media said that voter turnout had already reached 23 percent by late afternoon in Moscow on Friday. Vladimir Putin is expected to win the March elections, having signed a law in 2021 allowing him to serve two more terms as Russian President. He was first elected president in 2000, before being re-elected in 2004, 2012 and 2018. The three other candidates on the ballot are low-profile politicians from token opposition parties that toe the Kremlin's line.

The election takes place against the backdrop of a ruthless crackdown that has crippled independent media and prominent rights groups, giving Putin full control of the political system as Moscow's war in Ukraine enters its third year. Russian citizens were forced to cast their votes in presidential elections from their beds today as polling officials set out to garner a high turnout for incumbent president Vladimir Putin. Dystopian images emerged of an elderly, bed-ridden man looking over his shoulder as a stern-faced woman presumed to be his wife thrusts their voting cards into an empty ballot box held by an election official. Meanwhile, a pair of newlyweds were filmed rushing into a polling station - still sporting a veil, resplendent white dress and smart suit - having cut short their wedding celebrations so they could cast their votes as early as possible.

Speaking to journalists in Moscow, one voter, Lyudmila Petrova, encapsulated the attitude of many Russians ahead of the election. 'I support Putin and, of course, I will vote for him... he raised Russia up from its knees. And Russia will defeat the West and Ukraine. You cannot defeat Russia - ever. 'Have you in the West gone completely mad? What is Ukraine to do with you?' Voters are casting their ballots Friday through to Sunday at polling stations across the vast country's 11 time zones, as well as in illegally annexed regions of Ukraine. Russians also can vote online, the first time the option has been used in a presidential contest; more than 200,000 people in Moscow voted online soon after the polls opened, authorities said. Observers have little to no expectation that the election will be free and fair. 'Putin has no competitors - he is at a completely different level,' one senior Russian lawmaker told Reuters on condition of anonymity.

'The West made a very serious mistake by helping to unify a large part of the Russian elite and the Russian population around Putin with its sanctions and its vilification of Russia.' One brave Moscow woman made her feelings known as she staged a protest against the election by pouring a liquid into a ballot box. Seen on video, she placed her unfolded voting paper in the ballot box, then emptied disinfectant from a bottle, ruining the papers inside. The dark green liquid is zelenka - a dye widely used as a disinfectant for wounds by hospitals in Russia and other ex-Soviet countries. The woman - believed to be 20 - took a picture of her act, and was immediately detained. The act was an apparent protest against an election widely seen as rigged in favor of the Russian dictator, however, her motive is unconfirmed. The Russian Investigative Committee said the unnamed woman had been held and would face interrogation over her act.

'The suspect will be taken to a department of the capital's Investigative Committee, where investigators will begin interrogating her,' said a statement. She is suspected to have broken Russia's election law. A similar act of protest also occurred in Borisoglebsk, a town in the Voronezh region. A middle-aged woman apparently emptied a smaller quantity of the liquid was poured in a ballot box. It comes as a senior Russian source has said that Putin's tenure as leader was not a question of politics but of his health which seemed robust. He has no visible successor. Beyond the fact that voters have been presented with no viable candidate other than Putin, the possibilities for independent monitoring are very limited. Only registered candidates or state-backed advisory bodies can assign observers to polling stations, decreasing the likelihood of independent watchdogs.

With balloting over three days in nearly 100,000 polling stations in the country, any true monitoring is difficult anyway. 'The elections in Russia as a whole are a sham. The Kremlin controls who's on the ballot. The Kremlin controls how they can campaign. To say nothing of being able to control every aspect of the voting and the vote-counting process,' said Sam Greene, director for Democratic Resilience at the Center for European Policy Analysis in Washington. Ukraine and the West have also condemned Russia for holding the vote in Ukrainian regions that Moscow's forces have seized and occupied. Putin ordered a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 after eight years of conflict in eastern Ukraine between Kyiv's forces on one side and pro-Russian Ukrainians and Russian proxies on the other.

Tens of thousands of soldiers have been killed and many more wounded on both sides, thousands of Ukrainian civilians are dead and Ukraine's economy and infrastructure have suffered damage worth hundreds of billions of dollars. The West, which says Putin is a threat well beyond the former Soviet Union, has supplied Ukraine with hundreds of billions of dollars worth of aid, weapons and top-level intelligence. Western leaders accuse Putin of waging a brutal imperial-style war aimed at restoring Russia's global clout. Putin casts the war as part of an existential battle with a declining and decadent West which he says humiliated Russia after the Berlin Wall fell in 1989 by encroaching on what Putin considers to be Moscow's sphere of influence, including Ukraine.

That appeals to many Russians who are suspicious about the West's politics and intentions, if not its consumer goods. Top Kremlin officials, some sporting sweatshirts bearing the words 'Putin's Team', speak openly of war with NATO . Putin's approval rating is currently 86%, up from 71% shortly before the invasion of Ukraine, according to Levada Centre, a respected Russian pollster. Putin's rating also jumped during the 2008 war with Georgia and the 2014 annexation of Crimea from Ukraine. Now, after a disastrous first year and a grinding second, Russian forces have the advantage on Ukraine's battlefields, where they are making slow but steady gains in the third year of all-out conflict. But Ukraine has made Moscow look vulnerable behind the front line: Long-range drone attacks have struck deep inside Russia, while high-tech drones have put its Black Sea fleet on the defensive.

In many ways, Ukraine is at the heart of this election, political analysts and opposition figures say. Putin wants to use his all-but-assured electoral victory as evidence that the war and his handling of it enjoys widespread support. Russian television and a sophisticated social media operation project Putin as a robust patriot and deride Western leaders such as Biden as weak, foolish and deceitful. 'For many Russians, who are partly inspired by propaganda but most importantly by their own inner convictions, Russia is in an age-old struggle with the West - and what is currently happening is an episode in this struggle,' said Alexei Levinson, head of sociocultural research at Levada. 'Those who express such feelings in our surveys consider themselves to be participants in some way in this struggle with the West. They are like soccer fans who imagine they are participants in the soccer match.'

The opposition, meanwhile, hopes to use the vote to demonstrate their discontent with both the war and the Kremlin. The Kremlin banned two politicians from the ballot who sought to run on an antiwar agenda and attracted genuine - albeit not overwhelming - support, thus depriving the voters of any choice on the 'main issue of Russia's political agenda,' said political analyst Abbas Gallyamov, who used to work as Putin's speechwriter. Russia's scattered opposition has urged those unhappy with Putin or the war to show up at the polls at noon on Sunday, the final day of voting, in protest. The strategy was endorsed by Navalny not long before his death. 'We need to use election day to show that we exist and there are many of us, we are actual, living, real people and we are against Putin. What to do next is up to you. You can vote for any candidate except Putin. You could ruin your ballot,' his widow, Yulia Navalnaya, said.

How well this strategy will work remains unclear. Golos, Russia's renowned independent election observer group, said in a report this week that authorities were 'doing everything so that the people don't notice the very fact of the election happening.' The watchdog described the campaign ahead of the vote as 'practically unnoticeable' and 'the most vapid' since 2000 when Golos was founded and started monitoring elections in Russia. Putin's campaigning was cloaked in presidential activities, and other candidates were 'demonstrably passive,' the report said. State media dedicated less airtime to the election than in 2018 when Putin was last elected, according to Golos. Instead of promoting the vote to ensure a desired turnout, authorities appear to be betting on pressuring voters they can control - for instance, Russians who work in state-run companies or institutions - to show up at the polls, the group said.

The watchdog itself has also been swept up in the crackdown: Its co-chair, Grigory Melkonyants, is in jail awaiting trial on charges widely seen as an attempt to pressure the group ahead of the election. 'The current elections will not be able to reflect the real mood of the people,' Golos said in the report. 'The distance between citizens and decision-making about the fate of the country has become greater than ever.'
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/election-booths-vandalized-in-russia-as-citizens-refuse-to-back-putin/ss-BB1jXRIS?ocid=msedgntp&pc=U531&cvid=87ac1eb4680f42e8b29ad40a51d83fb5&ei=13#image=1

Dargo

03-15-24, 02:42 PM

Russia has enforced voting in occupied parts of Ukraine at gunpoint in Russia it is not different no guns, but they know what you vote if you did not vote for Putin or make the vote incorrect or do not vote you are coming automatically on the list.

Ukrainian intelligence 'hacking Russian online voting systems'Ukraine's military intelligence agency (HUR) said it is hacking online voting systems in Russia as the first day of the country's presidential election got underway on March 15. A source in the agency confirmed to the Kyiv Independent it was currently making attempts to disrupt the vote, adding: "There are no elections or democracy there anyway." https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-intelligence-hacking-russian-online-voting-systems/

If it is not the Ukrainians hacking this the Russians will do it themselves. :D

mapuc

03-15-24, 03:11 PM

It's not like they don't receive ammo at the front-They do, but it's far from enough.

Ukraine lack more than ammos.

Despite this, they are giving the Russian a fight for the bucks.

Markus

Dargo

03-15-24, 03:20 PM

It's not like they don't receive ammo at the front-They do, but it's far from enough.

Ukraine lack more than ammos.

Despite this, they are giving the Russian a fight for the bucks.

MarkusAnd they start to grind down the Russian offensive Russia on the moment can only replenish there forces not building for the next offensive. Russia lost 12% of its oil refinery capacity in a day the successful refinery strikes of yesterday, involving a reported launch of 58 drones, as well as recent hits on a Russian domestic gas transmission pipeline, all demonstrate that the January successes were not one-off special operations, but rather the beginning of what will be a sustained Ukraine armed forces campaign capable of, over time, significantly disrupting Russia’s all-important oil and gas import revenues and internal refined-product supplies. https://www.kyivpost.com/post/29575 Ukraine still can hit Russia hard this with themselves developed weapons (copied and improved Shahed drones). Ukraine's defence industry was a major part of the Soviet defence industry, responsible for 17% of Soviet defence production and 25% of its scientific research they know what they do.

mapuc

03-15-24, 05:50 PM

Not good at all-Is there a solution to this major production problem ?

This applies to important types of weapons from tanks, artillery, armored vehicles and to ammunition. We have major shortcomings in the defense industry, which, as Stoltenberg pointed out in October 2023, is the foundation for defence, deterrence and security.

https://nyheder-tv2-dk.translate.goog/samfund/2024-03-13-danmark-skal-opruste-men-vi-befinder-os-i-en-vaabenkrise?_x_tr_sl=da&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=da&_x_tr_pto=wapp

Markus

Dargo

03-15-24, 06:27 PM

Not good at all-Is there a solution to this major production problem ?

https://nyheder-tv2-dk.translate.goog/samfund/2024-03-13-danmark-skal-opruste-men-vi-befinder-os-i-en-vaabenkrise?_x_tr_sl=da&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=da&_x_tr_pto=wapp

MarkusThe states must guaranty that those investments in those new plants are not for nothing after a certain time period and states must invest more in their defence.

Skybird

03-15-24, 06:52 PM

Europe is in for a very hard and harsh wake-up call from cruel reality. It will be traumatizing, due to own fault.

He that will not hear must feel.

Dargo

03-15-24, 07:47 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4e5sSM2pfIY

Dargo

03-15-24, 09:03 PM

Trench warfare in FPV drone era: an analysis‘War is the mother of all inventions’ stated historian AJP Taylor in 1972. Whilst this remark upon the First World War would meet with perhaps some understandable opprobrium in 2024, the concept that innovation both renders obsolete some technology and shapes warfare is one borne out by twenty-first-century evaluation (War and Technology – Foreign Policy Research Institute (fpri.org)). As has been documented in our previous articles [1,2] the FPV drone, a weapon deployed in numbers which have surged since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, can arguably be seen as a weapon that has shaped aspects of warfare on the modern battlefield. Their application has been shaped by the operational needs of the combatants, with General Zaluzhny remarking on their value in December of 2023 [3].

The opening months of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 saw concerns raised [4] about the obsolescence of certain weapon systems. At the beginning, Bayraktar TB2 drones were highly effective against Russian armoured columns, raising doubts about the utility of main battle tanks, but after their initial widespread impact, their perceived ascendency appeared to wane [5]. Nevertheless, it is now widely accepted that the tank remains a critical battlefield asset... https://tochnyi.info/2024/03/trench-warfare-in-fpv-drone-era-an-analysis/

Jimbuna

03-16-24, 05:41 AM

Finnish Ministry of Foreign Affairs talks about sending troops to Ukraine

Countries in the West, including the US, should not prevent the sending of troops to Ukraine in the long term, states Finnish Foreign Minister Elina Valtonen.

“It’s important that we not rule everything out for the long term, because we never know how serious the situation becomes. But the Finnish position is clear: We are not right now sending any troops and not willing to discuss that," Valtonen said.

According to Politico, Valtonen's remarks mainly relate to the long-term hypothetical choice of NATO member countries. However, it is not excluded that European countries facing a direct threat from Russia may want to consider this option more seriously.

The Finnish Foreign Minister also noted that the most important thing now is that supporters of Ukraine continue to assist the warring country.
"Many European countries could do so much more," Valtonen emphasized.

At the end of February, French President Emmanuel Macron did not rule out the possibility that NATO could deploy troops to assist Ukraine. However, there was no consensus at that time. He later clarified that French troops could be sent to Ukraine in the event of a renewed Russian advance towards Kyiv or Odesa.

Several NATO countries opposed this idea, including Germany, Czechia, Bulgaria, Poland, Spain, and Italy. However, countries are willing to consider this possibility, including Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia.

Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas supported Macron's idea, stating that the readiness to send troops to Ukraine is a signal to the Russian dictator Vladimir Putin.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/finnish-ministry-of-foreign-affairs-talks-about-sending-troops-to-ukraine/ar-BB1jZfAj?ocid=msedgntp&pc=U531&cvid=410640f65081429f9f485b334f094406&ei=13

Jimbuna

03-16-24, 06:39 AM

Russia's losses in Ukraine as of March 16: Almost 1200 invaders and 31 motor vehicles

Russia's losses in the war against Ukraine as of Saturday morning, March 16, amounted to 1160 occupants, bringing the total number of Russian army losses since the beginning of the full-scale invasion to 429,580. In addition, the Ukrainian Armed Forces destroyed 31 motor vehicles and tankers, 26 artillery systems, and 24 armoured combat vehicles, according to the General Staff of the Armed Forces.

The total combat losses of the enemy from 24.02.22 to 16.03.24 are estimated to be:

・personnel - about 429,580 (+1160) Russian invaders were killed;

・tanks - 6779 (+21) units

・armored combat vehicles - 12,973 (+24) units;

・artillery systems - 10,606 (+26) units;

・MLRS - 1017 units;

・air defense systems - 719 (+2) units;
・aircraft - 347 units;

・helicopters - 325 units;

・UAVs of operational and tactical level - 8268 (+14) units;

・cruise missiles - 1922 (+2) units;

・ships/boats - 26 units;

・submarines - 1 unit;

・motor vehicles and tankers - 14,024 (+31) units;

・special equipment - 1712 (+1) units.

According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the Ukrainian Armed Forces control heights to the northwest of Avdiivka near Novobakhmutivka and Ocheretyno, complicating Russia's advance in this area.

In Ukraine, there were 78 combat clashes on the frontline over the past day. Aviation conducted strikes on 7 areas of enemy personnel concentration.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/russia-s-losses-in-ukraine-as-of-march-16-almost-1200-invaders-and-31-motor-vehicles/ar-BB1jZFus?ocid=msedgntp&pc=U531&cvid=0a4f29b5da4a4d5980536eb56cbf4f22&ei=66

Skybird

03-16-24, 07:18 AM

https://www-t--online-de.translate.goog/nachrichten/deutschland/militaer-verteidigung/id_100364946/taurus-debatte-warum-olaf-scholz-wirklich-keine-marschflugkoerper-liefert.html?_x_tr_sl=de&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_hist=true

More specific info on what I assumed privately already and what made me demanding that we - all nations, not just Germany - deliver them more ammunition - but made me much more hesitent to exclusively focus on just delivering Taurus.
What I did not forgive them however was the early reason given by a speaker of the chancellor's office that they do not want to give Taurus away due to Taurus being used to interrupting - slow - Russian supply lines over the Kerch bridge - that is no sane logic in this war.
One thing however seems to be clear: the Russians are extremely worried about Taurus.

I hate to admit that maybe Bubble Olaf is right for once, but it seems to me he is right on this.

https://www-focus-de.translate.goog/politik/leak-aus-geheimsitzung-maulwurf-verraet-geheime-taurus-info-experte-ist-fuer-deutschland-hochproblematisch_id_259767393.html?_x_tr_sl=de&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de

If he would not have run such a bad policy in the years before and would not have established such a lousy reputation as a fail communicator over the past 15 years if not all his career, this story now would not have fallen so heavily on his feet.

I have been hesitent on Taurus, too, since I dont know the technological background, and how many of these we even have, but I assumed that something like what now got known had somethign to do with it. The specific details I did not now, of course, and could not guess.
My expectation always focussed on much more general supplies , SAMs, artillery ammunition - and not just from Germany, but every NATO country.

Hm.

That's another demand I share with recent Bubble Olaf. What a bad day this is, promises a lousy weekend. :nope:

Jimbuna

03-16-24, 10:02 AM

Secret classes to counter Russian brainwashing in occupied Ukraine

Like millions of other Ukrainians, in the early weeks of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Nataliia (not her real name) was forced from her home.

She couldn't tolerate living under Russian occupation in her southern hometown of Melitopol, and felt she would be more useful in territory still controlled by Ukraine.

But Nataliia didn't just leave her home and relatives behind, she also surrendered her profession, giving up her job of 20 years as a teacher.

Now she spends her time giving online classes to hundreds of her former students.

The risks for her, and her remote class, are huge.

"No-one had done this before," Nataliia explains to us. "Not in Crimea, or in the occupied Donbas, Kherson or the Zaporizhzhia regions."

Portraits of Vladimir Putin now hang on the walls of Nataliia's old classrooms in Melitopol. The pupils must both learn, and sing, the Russian national anthem. They are even obliged to write "inspirational letters" to Russian soldiers.

This is how Ukrainian children are educated in territories occupied by Russia. They are taught that Ukraine isn't a real country - and Nataliia says, if a child challenges the curriculum, their parents are threatened with beatings or torture.

It's why Nataliia, with her former colleagues, created an online teaching platform to try to "save the minds of Ukrainian children".

"Once we launched it, I wrote a neutral letter, offering the classes to all of the parents," explains Nataliia. "I didn't know who was pro-Ukrainian or pro-Russian, and they knew my home address and my relatives".

She says even uttering the word "occupation" can result in Russian authorities visiting your home. If there is any evidence of loyalty to Ukraine, such as a child's homework being written in Ukrainian instead of Russian, a trip to the police station could follow.

And yet, hundreds of families have taken up Nataliia's offer to teach the Ukrainian curriculum - and numbers are growing.

In the morning, they attend Russian school, and in the afternoon or evening, the pupils have secret online lessons with Ukrainian teachers.

"Safety is more important than knowledge. All the students join with their cameras off and use false nicknames," says Nataliia.

Recordings are provided for those who might not have a signal or power.

"It's not so important to teach children what year Taras Shevchenko [a famous Ukrainian poet] was born, or the rules of geometry, but to keep them connected with Ukrainian culture," she explains.

"I have one student who came home and cried after the Russian lessons. This is too much psychological pressure for a child. All their lives they lived in a Ukrainian environment - and suddenly, everything changed."

Valera (not his real name) goes to a Russian school but also attends online Ukrainian classes. The 14-year-old told us only six out of his 31 classmates support Ukraine. He says he tries to resist Russification when he can.

"Once we turned on the Ukrainian anthem during our lesson, on the phone," he recalls. "Then they started to search everyone. I hid my phone; once they played their anthem - everyone stood up, we remained seated."

He says he always wanted this additional Ukrainian teaching, but Valera believes he is going to be made to join the Russian army.

Nataliia concedes the purpose of her teaching is constantly tested. The longer Russia occupies Melitopol, the greater the risk children living there will be indoctrinated.

"I can't check their homework normally," she says. "I fear for our future generation. It's very important to keep these children connected to reality. But it is so difficult to do."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-68578822

mapuc

03-16-24, 03:33 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sucSy5BdhXc&ab_channel=CombatVeteranReacts

Markus

Reece

03-17-24, 03:10 AM

That's made my day!! :yeah:

Jimbuna

03-17-24, 08:16 AM

Russian volunteers appeal to Putin, name condition for negotiations

Today, on March 16, fighters of the Freedom of Russia Legion, the Russian Volunteer Corps (RVC), and the Siberian Battalion issued a joint appeal to Russian dictator Vladimir Putin. The volunteers voiced a condition for possible negotiations.

Representatives of the volunteer units noted that fighting has been going on for several days in the border regions of the Russian Federation, but the Kremlin is trying to block the evacuation of residents, in particular, because of its intention not to "darken" the picture of the pseudo-election process.

"Vladimir Putin, the whole world has been watching for several days now as the Russian city of Belgorod, as well as Belgorod and Kursk regions, have turned into a zone of active hostilities. At the same time, the administration you appointed, despite our repeated appeals, is preventing the evacuation of civilians," the statement reads.
The volunteers emphasize that because of this, "civilians continue to suffer and die solely because of the ambitions of the Kremlin leader."

"We urge you to stop this circus, think about the fate of innocent Russians, and allow the evacuation of civilians from the war zone. Your elections have long since turned into a complete farce. Stop forcing ordinary people to participate in your performance at the polling stations under bombs and artillery fire," the RDC, FRL, and Siberian Battalion say.

The fighters point out that Putin has long lost his legitimacy, and "under the current circumstances, even the appearance of an election process has disappeared."

"It is obvious to everyone that Russia needs immediate and fundamental changes," the joint statement says.

According to the volunteers, the need for "a profound transformation of the government's relationship with the people, a frank conversation about new fair social rules" has long been overdue in Russia.

"If you are ready to discuss the future of our country without dictatorship and authoritarianism, we, for our part, are ready for such a conversation. If you still have the courage and responsibility, please contact us in a way that is convenient for you," the statement reads.

On March 12, volunteers from the Freedom of Russia Legion, RDC, and Siberian Battalion, who are fighting on the side of Ukraine, broke through the Russian border. These volunteer battalions entered Kursk and Belgorod regions from the territory of Ukraine. Later, the soldiers took control of the village of Tetkino in the Kursk region of the Russian Federation.

On the morning of March 14, residents of Belgorod complained about strikes and Russian media reported an alleged breakthrough of the subversive group in Belgorod region. Heavy fighting was also reported in the village of Kozynka.

On March 15, Russian volunteers issued an urgent message announcing a massive attack on military targets in the city of Belgorod and urged locals to immediately take cover and not go outside until the attack was over. Today, on March 16, fighters from the Freedom of Russia Legion and the Siberian Battalion warned of their intention to launch a massive attack on military targets in Belgorod and again asked locals to take cover.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/russian-volunteers-appeal-to-putin-name-condition-for-negotiations/ar-BB1k0TJp?ocid=msedgntp&pc=U531&cvid=b8ed578569254c9b9416f039d1e364a8&ei=22

Jimbuna

03-17-24, 08:39 AM

Macron switches from dove to hawk on Russia's invasion of Ukraine

What came over Emmanuel Macron to turn him from appeaser to warmonger in the matter of Russia and Ukraine?

That - crudely put - is the question being asked in chancelleries across Europe, as the French president warms to his new role as the continent's resister-in-chief to Vladimir Putin.

Certain countries - the Baltics, Poland - welcome President Macron's apparent conversion to their "realistic" assessment of the Moscow threat.

Others - notably Chancellor Olaf Scholz's Germany - are aghast at this new-found va-t-en-guerre (gung-ho) French spirit.

All are confused and uncertain. How genuine is the new Macron line? Is his recent refusal to rule out sending troops to Ukraine just another of his surprises - testimony to his insatiable need to cut a diplomatic dash?

And how much of his new positioning is purely politics?

European elections are approaching, and the hard-right of Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella looks set to trounce the Macronites.

So is Emmanuel Macron using Ukraine to create a fault line between his side and the opposition, setting a contrast between his own lucid belligerence and Ms Le Pen's turbid complicity with Moscow in the past?

In a live interview on French television on Thursday evening, the president implicitly acknowledged that these critical questions were being asked.

But in true Macron fashion, he set out not to mollify but to assert. Far from muting his new-found alarmism, he explained it.

Not remotely embarrassed about his "conversion" from dove to hawk, the president's view was that the one inevitably had to precede the other.

Only after all efforts to reach out to an adversary have been exhausted, he argued, is it possible to say conclusively that that adversary is beyond the pale.

Furthermore - the second part of his self-justification - he argued that the Russians have now pushed their aggression to a whole new level.

The Kremlin, he said, had in recent months "got noticeably harder-line" - placing the Russian economy on a permanent war-footing; stepping up repression of internal opposition; escalating cyber-attacks on France and other countries.

With Ukraine looking increasingly beleaguered, and the United States no longer dependable as an ally, Europe was entering a new world, he said: "A world where what we thought was unthinkable actually happens."

This is why, according to the new Macron doctrine, France and Europe needed to be preparing a sursaut - a mental leap out of the cosy certainties of the dying era and into the harsh realities of the new one.

In deliberately Churchillian tones, he believes that in order to keep the peace, Europe needs to be ready for war.

As always with Emmanuel Macron, the logic is impeccable; the arguments unbreakable.

But as always with Emmanuel Macron there is also the question: he may convince, but can he persuade?

Because the French head of state's abiding difficulty is not, obviously, lack of brainpower - but the ability to convert that brilliance into a different talent: leadership. A capacity for getting others to follow.

And on this issue, it is far from clear that the others will fall in line.

The most glaring sign is the rift that separates the French leader from the man who is supposed to be his closest ally in Europe, Germany's Olaf Scholz.

In traditional Franco-German style, both sides are now publicly patching up and putting on the mandatory common front. Hence the Macron visit to Berlin on Friday.

But no amount of man-hugs can conceal the fundamental discord: France accusing Germany of foot-dragging on help for Ukraine, and wilful blindness in clinging to the permanence of the US security umbrella; Germany accusing France of reckless belligerence, hypocrisy (its arms deliveries are in fact way behind Germany's), and Macronic grandstanding.

But domestically too, support for Emmanuel Macron on Ukraine is softer than he likes to think.

Polls show that a big majority - around 68% - oppose his line on sending Western troops. More generally, while most people are clearly opposed to Russia, the Ifop polling company reports a "progressive erosion of support for the Ukrainian cause".

And if there is indeed an electoral subtext to his new hard line on Moscow - intended to expose the far right's ambiguities - then it does not seem to be working. Opinion surveys show support for Le Pen's National Rally (RN) only strengthening.

In transforming into Europe's leading anti-appeaser, President Macron is once again staking out new ground.

He is taking the lead, and pushing Europeans to think hard about their security, and about the sacrifices that may soon become necessary.

All this is no doubt welcome.

His difficulty is that too many people react badly to him.

They resent his self-belief, and feel he too readily confuses what is right for Europe and the world with what is actually just right for France - or himself.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68575251

Jimbuna

03-18-24, 12:02 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qsImrThB7y8

Dargo

03-18-24, 03:38 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wdap15tWnfI

mapuc

03-18-24, 06:31 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Ede9RnnM_I&ab_channel=CombatVeteranReacts

Markus

Reece

03-18-24, 07:58 PM

^ Reeks of something that's for sure!! :doh:

Jimbuna

03-19-24, 06:54 AM

China threatens to boycott Ukraine peace talks without Russia

China may boycott peace talks on resolving the war in Ukraine if Europe does not allow Russia to participate in them, according to Politico.

The news agency spoke with officials who reported that China is trying to persuade Europe to allow Russia to participate in future peace talks, possibly to be held in Switzerland.

Otherwise, China will boycott such meetings.

"That message was amplified, they say, during Chinese special envoy Li Hui's European tour earlier this month to discuss the future of Ukraine," the material states.

And officially, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that Li Hui promised "support [for] the timely convening of a peace conference with equal participation of all parties."

Earlier, Chinese President Xi Jinping presented his vision of a diplomatic resolution to Russia's war against Ukraine and appointed a special representative to address the issue. This representative is China's former ambassador to Russia, Li Hui.

After his appointment, Li Hui visited Russia, Ukraine, and the EU to discuss the Chinese initiative. Kyiv did not appreciate Beijing's diplomatic efforts, as Ukraine already has its own Peace Formula. After that, China forgot about the issue of Russia's war against Ukraine for a long time.

It was previously reported that China's special envoy, Li Hui, would visit Ukraine, Poland, Germany, France, and Russia. His tour began on March 2.

The Chinese diplomat has already visited Ukraine, as well as Brussels and Poland. Li Hui discussed Russia's war against Ukraine, calling it the "Ukrainian crisis."

Against the backdrop of the special envoy's tour, China's Foreign Minister announced that Beijing supports holding a peace conference on Ukraine.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/china-threatens-to-boycott-ukraine-peace-talks-without-russia-politico/ar-BB1k7mRO?ocid=mailsignout&pc=U591&cvid=88f2bfe5d5ae4521b913b52c9d3a5231&ei=29

mapuc

03-19-24, 01:47 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nXx88q02Gkw&ab_channel=CombatVeteranReacts

Markus

mapuc

03-19-24, 02:34 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tctv5bUqHKY&ab_channel=UkraineMatters

Markus

Jimbuna

03-19-24, 02:38 PM

US won't allow Ukraine to lose, Pentagon chief says

The United States will not allow Ukraine to lose the war with Russia, Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin says.

He says the conditions in which the Ukrainian army is fighting are extremely difficult. Unfortunately, the civilian population suffers from Russian drone attacks. Therefore, his message today is quite clear - the US will not allow Ukraine to lose, the Ramstein coalition will not allow this, and the whole free world will not allow this.

The meeting in the Ramstein format is a series of diplomatic meetings of defense ministers of a dozen countries of the world. The purpose of the meetings is to synchronize and accelerate the provision of military aid to Ukraine against the backdrop of Russian aggression. In particular, the issue of supporting our country after the end of the war is raised.
The nineteenth meeting of the Contact Group on the Defense of Ukraine in the Ramstein format took place on February 19. This was the first meeting with the participation of the new Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces Oleksandr Syrskyi.

According to Reuters, at the Ramstein meeting on March 19, Austin will try to convince European allies that the administration of President Joe Biden is still committed to supporting Ukraine.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/us-won-t-allow-ukraine-to-lose-pentagon-chief-says/ar-BB1k9ZWP?ocid=msedgntp&pc=U531&cvid=ea2ea2c4b1e0468ebd0b5bd31b7a8d3d&ei=36

Jimbuna

03-19-24, 02:40 PM

Russia restricts Black Sea fleet maneuvers due to drone threat - UK Intelligence

The Russian military is looking for ways to keep the fleet in the Black Sea. Ship operations have been limited and drone defenses have been stepped up, according to the UK Ministry of Defense.

Ukraine's success in conducting an ongoing asymmetric naval strike campaign led to a visit by Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu to the Black Sea Fleet (BSF) command post in Crimea on March 17, 2024.

Shoigu received an update on Ukrainian operations and discussed the effectiveness of the naval forces. According to the Russian Defense Ministry, he announced new measures for the BSF units to reduce the threat from unmanned aerial vehicles and unmanned surface vehicles.

According to UK intelligence, special attention was paid to conducting daily drills to ensure readiness for drone warfare to enable ship crews to quickly repel attacks day and night. Shoigu also ordered that unidentified targets be equipped with additional large-caliber weapons to strengthen their defense.
"The Russian Navy has highly likely resorted to limiting its operations to the eastern Black Sea as its losses mount, and its threat perceptions increase. With Ukraine continuing to seek out opportunities to strike at distance, the Russian Ministry of Defence has been prompted to increase its efforts to preserve its fleet in the Black Sea," the UK Ministry of Defense says.

On the night of March 4-5, a special unit of the Ukrainian Defense Intelligence Agency Group 13 near the Kerch Strait attacked the Black Sea Fleet patrol ship Sergei Kotov. As a result of the attack by Magura V5 maritime drones, the ship was eliminated. This is the third Russian Black Sea Fleet vessel to sink in the last five weeks.

Following a series of significant losses of Russian ships in the Black Sea, on March 10, Russian Navy Chief Admiral Nikolai Evmenov was dismissed and replaced by Northern Fleet Commander Admiral Alexander Moiseev.

In February, Admiral Viktor Sokolov, the commander of the Black Sea Fleet, was dismissed due to losses.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/russia-restricts-black-sea-fleet-maneuvers-due-to-drone-threat-uk-intelligence/ar-BB1ka5UQ?ocid=msedgntp&pc=U531&cvid=ea2ea2c4b1e0468ebd0b5bd31b7a8d3d&ei=56

August

03-19-24, 03:23 PM

China threatens to boycott Ukraine peace talks without Russia

Non participant threatens to continue to not participate. How disconcerting.

Skybird

03-19-24, 04:48 PM

Putin will use the momentum after he won the farce and will push a spring offensive with utmost power and brutality ,last but not least towareds his own troops, Colonel Reisner assumes. The current ammo shortages on side of the Ukrainian defenders will make it difficult to fight it back, I assume.

https://www-n--tv-de.translate.goog/politik/Die-russische-Winteroffensive-steht-vor-dem-Hoehepunkt-article24812584.html?_x_tr_sl=de&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de

I think that the election procedure was a farce shall not be mistaken for that Putin does not have a strong backhold in public opinion. The vast majority of Russians is with him and for him. There will be neither a civil uprise nor an inner overturning of the regime.

Dargo

03-19-24, 05:02 PM

This why the focus of the Ukrainian production of FPV drones they are using 'flocks' of FPV drones led by 'queen' drone to attack Russian positions against armour, vehicles, as counter artillery, etc drones will not retake areas but are good for Ukraine defence. It has proved to have had a far greater significance on the battlefield than more expensive platforms, especially for the relatively cheap cost but also for their scalability.

mapuc

03-19-24, 05:16 PM

If Ukraine can withhold until the end of the year -24 the pendul may change in their favour.

Markus

Dargo

03-19-24, 05:30 PM

If Ukraine can withhold until the end of the year -24 the pendul may change in their favour.

MarkusUkraine has several problems to late building defence lines, ammunition shortage and mobilisation all politics but can be solved. Remember with all his might Russia did not make any great breakthrough like Ukraine did in the 2022 Kharkiv counteroffensive, Ukraine retook over 500 settlements and 12,000 square kilometres of territory in the Kharkiv region. Russia now only toke some pockets with no military value and some kilometres hear and there.

Skybird

03-20-24, 06:47 AM

Ukraine must make its homework with raising new troops.

Every year it starts with a worse condition of its ecnomy, financial status energy grid, production, logistics grid.Currently I see Ukraine wearing down earlier than Russia wearing down its potential to escalate and ever bringing in new reserves.

I dont see Ukraine going into the offensive this year. And they said they wouldn't.

With the supplky situation beign a sit is I wonde rhow they dare to hope to prepare an offensive next year. With what...???

War is about numbers. The numbers look very bad.

Recent raids into Russian border territories were just PR stunts to mess wiht the Putin'ÄS farce in Russia and to distract from nt he loss of Avdijivka, they always do like this: they suffere a fallback, and imemdoately pull some miltiraukly irrelevant but healdine-making show-act to distract form their loss and to fade out the victor's triumph. The Russians try the same in retun, but with less effect. - Those freedom legion fighters that went at Belgogrod btw no doubt suffer punishing casualties. They get sacrificied, more or less. For PR.

mapuc

03-20-24, 09:58 AM

Now who's right !?

Seems like they are going to support Ukraine all the way or are they not.
(Someone mentioned that the West would sacrifice Ukraine)

I say there will be troops in Ukraine within the next couple of years. Not combat though.

https://ekstrabladet-dk.translate.goog/nyheder/politik/kritisk-mangel-nu-melder-de-ud/10169018?_x_tr_sl=da&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=da&_x_tr_pto=wapp

Rockstar

03-20-24, 10:27 AM

Orban is talking out his butt.

In December 2023 the U.S. Army invested 1.5 billion dollars and signed contracts with domestic, Canadian and Polish manufactures to produce artillery ammunition. It will primarily be used to replenish our own stocks that have been drawn down and given to Ukraine. On a side note I noticed several weeks afterwards European countries suddenly started reporting to have miraculously ‘found’ ammunition in their own stock piles to assist Ukraine.

Romania, NATO and Lockheed Martin are also building a training facility and NATO airbase to house and teach Romanian pilots how to operate the F-16’s they’re getting from Norway. According to Lockheed Martin the base could be used to train Ukr pilots too.

Dargo

03-20-24, 12:10 PM

Czechia has sourced an additional 700,000 artillery rounds for Ukraine as part of its own initiative to procure critically needed weaponry for the Armed Forces of Ukraine, writes The Wall Street Journal. The plan is to buy more ammunition on top of the 800,000 shells already financed, provided the required funds are available. “[Czechia] has sourced around 800,000 artillery shells from a diverse coalition of suppliers spanning the globe and identified another 700,000 that could be secured with extra funds,” the text reads.

Ukraine will be able to receive the first shipments of weapons in the coming weeks. By the end of the year, a total of 300 units of Soviet-caliber weapons and 500,000 units of NATO-caliber ammunition will be delivered. “More shells will be available as funding comes in, the Czech government said. Altogether, Czech officials say around 3 billion euros, equivalent to $3.3 billion, would secure around 1.5 million shells—a fraction of the $60 billion aid package for Ukraine now stranded in the US Congress,” The Wall Street Journal writes. https://www.ukrainianworldcongress.org/czech-republic-locates-extra-700000-shells-for-ukraine/

Ukraine races to build weapons at homeUkraine manufactured practically no weapons before Russia invaded in February 2022, but the local arms industry is now booming. Factories spit out shells, mortar rounds, military vehicles, missiles and other items crucial to the war effort. Production tripled in 2023 and is expected to increase sixfold this year, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said at a Ukrainian government meeting in January. Local production is not sufficient to make up for a loss of international support, especially weapons from the United States. But with a $60 billion aid package stalled in Congress, domestic manufacturing is more critical than ever. For certain crucial items, such as the drones that have transformed how the war is fought, Ukraine is already making 90 percent of what it needs, Mykhailo Fedorov, the digital transformation minister, said at a conference last month.

...

Some weapons are on the horizon. Ukraine’s minister of strategic industries, Oleksandr Kamyshin, said last month that Ukraine had deployed a locally made missile with a range of more than 400 miles. He did not provide details. Air defense systems and high-precision missiles similar to the U.S.-made High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) are also being developed, officials said. But the high-tech systems that Ukraine needs to push back the Russian invaders are a long way off from being manufactured in Ukraine. “To master such a production, to build such a production, decades must pass,” said Polyvianyi, who is also director of the National Association of Ukrainian Defense Industries, which includes more than 50 private contractors... https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/03/20/ukraine-weapons-industry-domestic-production/

mapuc

03-20-24, 01:26 PM

Jimbuna

03-20-24, 01:32 PM

Ukraine’s survival is in danger, Pentagon chief warns;

Ukraine’s survival is at stake amid an ongoing funding impasse in the U.S. Congress, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin warned Tuesday, stating that additional aid for Ukraine was a matter of “honor” for the United States.

“Today, Ukraine’s survival is in danger and America’s security is at risk. They don’t have a day to waste, and we don’t have a day to spare either,” Austin said at a press conference after a meeting of the Ukraine defense contact group meeting at the Ramstein Air Base in Germany on Tuesday, with representatives from Ukraine and around 50 allied countries attending.

“I leave here today fully determined to keep U.S. security assistance and ammunition flowing. And that’s a matter of survival and sovereignty for Ukraine. And it’s a matter of honor and security for America. And make no mistake, Putin is watching. The world is watching and history is watching,” Austin said.
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/20/ukraine-war-live-updates-latest-news-on-russia-and-the-war-in-ukraine.html

Dargo

03-20-24, 02:10 PM

Ukraine’s survival is in danger, Pentagon chief warns;In the meantime, just 72 hours until congress will go on another two-week holiday.

mapuc

03-20-24, 02:12 PM

'Says Russia' When it comes from that corner one should take the information with a ton salt.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BOV9-MlOdPc&ab_channel=Military%26History

Markus

Skybird

03-20-24, 04:18 PM

[Focus] The two academics Ivana Stradner and Mark Montgomery warn that Russian President Vladimir Putin wants to start a new war in Europe. The experts from the think tank "Foundation for Defense of Democracies" fear that this could take place in the Balkans.
"Since the Russian armed forces have suffered losses in Ukraine, Moscow has much to gain by stirring up trouble elsewhere on the continent," write the two academics in their guest article for the Wall Street Journal. Putin's aim behind this is to destabilize the West and weaken support for Ukraine.

The two academics warn: "While NATO is celebrating its 75th anniversary and Putin is suffering further losses in Ukraine, Moscow is trying to open a new front in the Balkans." Russia does not have to send any soldiers into the area itself, but "only has to rely on Serbia to stir up violence and instability and bet that Nato will hesitate". According to the two experts, the USA is also assuming an increased risk of violence in the region.

-------------

And if he wants to start a war by sending own troops but only a few, then the east of Moldovia is his option.

Rockstar

03-20-24, 04:42 PM

12 Ukrainian fighter pilot + ground staff are being trained in Denmark since end of last year.
Don't know when they will be finished their training.

Markus

Yep, the U.S. will not allow anyone to transfer their F16’s to Ukraine until Ukraine pilots have been trained.

Skybird

03-20-24, 04:54 PM

It gets reported that the Russians got their hands on Starlink terminals despite the item being on the sanction list. They are now actively using Starlink against the Ukrainians. Super. I take it for granted that they also study the technology in them and build their own clones, to have more terminals available.

There may come a time when the balances shift that much against Ukraine that Starlink better gets switched off.

Jimbuna

03-21-24, 05:47 AM

NATO ally ready to deploy 60,000 troops to Ukraine as Vladimir Putin threatens retaliation

Aprominent NATO ally has suggested its troops are ready to intervene in the Russia-Ukraine war to discourage Vladimir Putin from launching further attacks.

General Pierre Schill, France's ground forces chief, wrote in an op-ed on Tuesday that his country is prepared to put boots on the ground in Ukraine.

Schill's piece in Le Monde claimed French troops are "ready" for "the toughest engagements" and can be called upon to "deter any attack on France".

He suggested France could mobilize 20,000 troops within 30 days to support Ukraine's war effort. That number could reach as high 60,000 when taking into account other allied troops deployed alongside the French.

He wrote: "If you want peace, prepare for war. The sources of crisis are multiplying and carry with them risks of spiraling or extending."

French President Emmanuel Macron has recently been contemplating deploying French troops in Ukraine, though Putin has threatened decisive retaliation.

He proposed discussions between a number of NATO countries that could see allied forces entering Ukraine to support in training and advisory roles, rather than as combat troops.

Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, and Poland are interested in carrying out the mission, but other powerful nations such as the US and Germany have expressed strong opposition.

Russian officials have repeatedly responded to claims of NATO involvement in Ukraine, threatening retaliation and significant escalation in the two-year long conflict with Ukraine.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said the French president's "idea of potentially sending such a contingent," is "clearly perceived differently in different European capitals. We continue following this situation closely."

Foreign Intelligence Service head Sergey Naryshkin added: "It will thus become a legitimate priority target for attacks by the Russian armed forces.

"This means that it will suffer the fate of all the French who have ever come to the Russian world with a sword."

Despite talks from members of France's government, there are not yet any plans for the country or other NATO members to put boots on the ground in Ukraine.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/nato-ally-ready-to-deploy-60-000-troops-to-ukraine-as-vladimir-putin-threatens-retaliation/ar-BB1keJhl?ocid=mailsignout&pc=U591&cvid=24d64a19385a4d7e838b0b292ab270b0&ei=37

mapuc

03-21-24, 09:44 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nR_dSSq83WA&ab_channel=CombatVeteranReacts

Markus

Jimbuna

03-21-24, 01:39 PM

Putin withdraws tank he once called 'best in the world' over fears Ukraine will destroy it

Vladimir Putin has withdrawn his T-14 tanks from combat amid fears they could be easily defeated by Ukrainian forces.

The tanks are worth £7million each and have been branded 'city destroyers' in the past.

But the UK Ministry of Defence has claimed that the tanks will now not be deployed by Russia.

Posting on X, the MoD said: "This is highly likely due to the high costs and potential reputational damage of losing a 'prestige' vehicle in combat."

Former British Army colonel Hamish de Bretton-Gordon responded to the tweet saying the Russian tank is "rubbish."

The T-14 tank is equipped with a gun that boasts a five-mile range. In the past, Russia has claimed the tank has a stealth coating that makes it untraceable on enemy radars.

Other features include a fully autonomous turret that can rotate 360 degrees, UV detectors to warn of incoming fire, and a 125mm smoothbore cannon.

Putin has previously branded it the "world's best tank."

Ukraine has already destroyed some of these tanks in the ongoing war.

In 2022, Ukraine's Defence Ministry released footage of a destroyed T-14, adding that they had taken out "the pride of the Russian tank industry."

Since Russia launched its invasion in February 2022, Putin's men have reportedly lost nearly all of the tanks that had at the start of the war. Figures also estimate that Russia has lost 3,000 armoured vehicles since the war began.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/putin-withdraws-tank-he-once-called-best-in-the-world-over-fears-ukraine-will-destroy-it/ar-BB1khy78?ocid=msedgntp&pc=U531&cvid=aa23ca12d6e14559aabd4660d11ed15c&ei=3

Skybird

03-21-24, 02:40 PM

The French proposal is that: a FRENCH proposal, not helped by any other NATO ally. Thats what makes it untrustworthy, at best. It also coincides with photos of Rocky Macron working at the sandbag, showing his - if not photoshopped than indeed impressive - bizeps in Putin-style.

Its posing. I do not take it serious currently.

Jimbuna

03-22-24, 06:51 AM

Jimbuna

03-22-24, 07:03 AM

'Desperate' Vladimir Putin rocked by Ukraine failures as Russian casualties soar

Vladimir Putin is "desperately clinging on to power" as he does not trust his successor if he leaves, it has been claimed.

The war in Ukraine has seen thousands of Russian troops killed and the country's economy threatened by Western sanctions.

Despite this, Putin has maintained his grip on power after an election victory in which he received 87 percent of the vote after barring prominent opponents from the ballot.

Russia expert Mark Galeotti says Putin's current situation shares similarities with the final stages of the Soviet Union before its collapse in the early 1990s.

He told Times Radio: "I think the election is a signal of a process that has been happening since the February 2022 invasion.

"This is what late-Putinisn looks like, where elections are just sham civic rituals. Where an increasingly ageing leadership is clinging onto power knowing full well that to abandon power is to put all your fate and fortune in your successor. They don't trust their successors.

"Russia is under the pressure of military spending and is sliding slowly into economic stagnation, but for the moment can sustain itself.

"This all looks terrifyingly and depressingly familiar to the end days of the Soviet Union."

Galeotti also warned that Putin cannot abandon his wartime rhetoric against NATO, meaning tensions between Moscow and the West are unlikely to calm in the future.

He said: "He doesn't necessarily need the shooting war to go on forever, but Putin and Russia probably have two years or likely substantially longer in the tank.

"But what Putin cannot abandon is this wider war narrative. Whatever he gets in Ukraine he will say that it was a great triumph as Russia was up against the whole united West. But the point is the West is still our enemy.

"Putinism is now permanent wartime, it is something he cannot abandon."

The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine recently claimed that Putin's army has lost over 400,000 men in the war since February 2022.

Kyiv has also lost a lot of men in the fighting. A Ukrainian soldier said earlier this week that they are losing so many men that it is impossible to retrieve the bodies.

The soldier told The Times they are "losing so many people, there are so many bodies we can't even bring them all back."

He added that the situation on the frontline is "********** awful" and that Kyiv's troops "can barely hold the line."
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/desperate-vladimir-putin-rocked-by-ukraine-failures-as-russian-casualties-soar/ar-BB1kl4r7?ocid=msedgntp&pc=U531&cvid=212c6e3de61d4b49bb38738e45083aad&ei=62

Skybird

03-22-24, 07:24 AM

August

03-22-24, 07:26 AM

Coming from France me neither.

But this didn't come from France. Its the Russians, specifically their spy chief, who are claiming that France is planning to send troops. The French deny there are any such plans. I'm surprised that so many folks here take Kremlin bull crap as Gospel.

Jimbuna

03-22-24, 08:03 AM

But this didn't come from France. Its the Russians, specifically their spy chief, who are claiming that France is planning to send troops. The French deny there are any such plans. I'm surprised that so many folks here take Kremlin bull crap as Gospel.

Not always Russian sourced Dave, Here is a French source from RFI (Radio France Internationale)

https://www.rfi.fr/en/france/20240322-france-military-chief-backs-macron-over-possibility-of-sending-troops-to-ukraine-war

Skybird

03-22-24, 08:29 AM

A French general or ex-general brought it up. Russia picked it up and blew it up further for its propaganda. Of course they did. They also tell their people that the are at war with the whole West in general and NATO in special. And in a way they are even right, I don't care what sophistical subtleties paragraph riders come up with to disguise this effective fact. We have taken sides in this war and we are intervening in it, through economic and political action and financial intervention and providing of material and intel. We are not yet shooting ourselves, but letting others shoot. France is making it a threat that this could change. Not taking this threat off the table makes sense. Unfortunately, in this example, it is clear that the threat is only built on hot air, which strips it of its threatening effect. Now it is just ammunition for Russian propaganda. In other words, the French approach, although basically correct, is - within the specific situation - an own goal. Another one in a long row of European own goals. And paranoid as Putin is it will intensify his desire to strike NATO earlier than we so far assume he can. 6-10 years? Dont bet on it.

mapuc

03-22-24, 09:18 AM

Russia has gone from special operation to State of war between Ukraine and Russia

Now it's only a matter of time before Putin order general mobilization

https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20240322-kremlin-says-russia-says-in-a-state-of-war-in-ukraine

Markus

Jimbuna

03-22-24, 09:31 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nAe5pWaZhuc

mapuc

03-22-24, 11:11 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BYpIfj0p5zE&ab_channel=CombatVeteranReacts

Markus

Skybird

03-22-24, 11:54 AM

My thoughts exactly, Markus. First he fixed the elections, then he will fix the mobilization.

I also think this: we have started to lose control of what we still can do.

Not surprised I am, however. C follows B follows A... Next comes - well, D, most likely. Quelle surprise!

Dargo

03-22-24, 12:16 PM

First, Putin must declare war accord the law conscripts can not fight in Ukraine I do not think he will send troops out off the St Petersburg and Moscow districts to Ukraine to tricky when people of those districts come back in body bags.

Video Shows Colossal Blast as Russian Missile Strikes Ukraine's Biggest DamA Russian missile dodging Ukraine's air defenses before striking Ukraine's largest hydroelectric dam near Zaporizhzhia. Pro-Russian news outlets and milbloggers shared footage on Friday morning, as Kyiv struggled to grasp the scale of Russia's overnight assault on targets across Ukraine. DniproHES, located to the south of the city of Dnipro, is the largest hydroelectric power station in Ukraine, and one of the largest in Europe. The dam was hit as Russia launched what has been described by Ukraine's Energy Minister German Galushchenko as one of the largest-scale attacks on the Ukrainian energy sector in the war. Ukrhydroenergo, Ukraine's state hydropower company, confirmed on Friday that the DniproHES hydroelectric dam in Zaporizhzhia had been hit but insisted there was no risk of a breach. Yurii Bielousov, chief of the war crimes department of the Ukrainian Prosecutor General's Office, said on national television that the hydroelectric power plant was struck eight times, Ukrainska Pravda reported. https://www.newsweek.com/video-shows-colossal-blast-russian-missile-strikes-ukraines-biggest-dam-1882262

When the retreating Soviet Red Army blew it up in 1941, the flooding killed over 100000 people.

Let this sink in: the US tells Ukraine to stop attacking Russian oil refineries.

https://www.ft.com/content/98f15b60-bc4d-4d3c-9e57-cbdde122ac0c?accessToken=zwAGFDs8B27QkdOY8VtgvE1NP NOeV8vd4SKsDA.MEUCIQCAqwDD1ZfKThzEa6hGVeu0Ply6BkgA tJCVDBU5jf6hhgIgPKwXgdP7omrlIBG-5rbKrAl5Jjn8Je2BdxyOfe0WL7M&sharetype=gift&token=5a39f9ef-8bda-4380-a172-79c9cddfca46

Nowe at the latest Ukraine should know how trustworthy its Western allies are. In the end they are not really interested in Ukraine winning and Russia loosing. True for the US. True for European nations. True for the EU.

Nobody wants Ukraine to win. At best they hope, they pray that Russia will voluntarily give it up. If they please, yes?I see it a bit different think the strategy is to keep Ukraine alive enough so that they can bleed the Russian army in the meantime, earning huge of this war.

mapuc

03-22-24, 12:41 PM

First, Putin must declare war accord the law conscripts can not fight in Ukraine I do not think he will send troops out off the St Petersburg and Moscow districts to Ukraine to tricky when people of those districts come back in body bags.

Maybe so, but this time it's the other way around-NATO have, by sending military equipment and ammo to Ukraine, declared war on Russia

This is how I interpreter the statement from Kremlin

Markus

Jimbuna

03-22-24, 12:43 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uexS3hULg9c

Dargo

03-22-24, 01:00 PM

Maybe so, but this time it's the other way around-NATO have, by sending military equipment and ammo to Ukraine, declared war on Russia

This is how I interpreter the statement from Kremlin

MarkusThis is someone from the Kremlin not Putin himself, I saw many people say in the past the Kremlin does this or do that majority of these interpreters did not come true. Nothing has changed "election" or not Putin still does not rule Russia on his own it will always be by the consent of the several factions and still public opinion is important certainly the real Russia districts Putin needs them behind this or other war Putin does his bloody best to appear the great, good leader that kinda leader can not go against the constitution. Find the sabre rhetoric large here can not see Russia that can not win in Ukraine declare war against a much larger opponent it is a delusion military and economically wise. Putin is delusional there will be plans there are always plans even we in the West have the plans, this does not mean those plan will be feasible to execute. It is too easy thinking that Russia will attack NATO there are still nuclear weapons on both sides MAD is still a reality attacking NATO means a possibility of a nuclear war as in the past both sides did not want that. That fear has not changed that is always included in the plans as an option we will fight in proxy even with our own (examples enough in the past) but never risk direct confrontation, the risk is too high for that.

mapuc

03-22-24, 01:18 PM

This is someone from the Kremlin not Putin himself, I saw many people say in the past the Kremlin does this or do that majority of these interpreters did not come true. Nothing has changed "election" or not Putin still does not rule Russia on his own it will always be by the consent of the several factions and still public opinion is important certainly the real Russia districts Putin needs them behind this or other war Putin does his bloody best to appear the great, good leader that kinda leader can not go against the constitution. Find the sabre rhetoric large here can not see Russia that can not win in Ukraine declare war against a much larger opponent it is a delusion military and economically wise. Putin is delusional there will be plans there are always plans even we in the West have the plans, this does not mean those plan will be feasible to execute.

I truly hope you're right on this.
Only time will tell-In a video posted by me yesterday the title was both side agree a war is coming in 2026 or 2027

Made a search on how much power Putin has and found this interesting article

https://www.institutmontaigne.org/en/expressions/putins-grip-power-beginning-end

Markus

Dargo

03-22-24, 01:39 PM

I truly hope you're right on this.
Only time will tell-In a video posted by me yesterday the title was both side agree a war is coming in 2026 or 2027

Made a search on how much power Putin has and found this interesting article

https://www.institutmontaigne.org/en/expressions/putins-grip-power-beginning-end

MarkusA analysis of an analysis what goes around in the Kremlin it tops it with what goes around in Putin head sure really shoot me when this come true (Putin’s Grip on Power was and is the same how can you elevate a dictator after being a dictator for +15 years), a country that is closed like it was in the USSR time fun read but that it is no real evidence only an analysis.

Putin walks out of his chambers laughing his head off. Gerasimov approaches him and asks why he is laughing. "I just heard the funniest joke in the world!" "Well, go ahead, tell me!" says Gerasimov. Putin, "I can't, I just gave someone ten years for it!"

Rockstar

03-22-24, 02:18 PM

Let this sink in: the US tells Ukraine to stop attacking Russian oil refineries.

https://www.ft.com/content/98f15b60-bc4d-4d3c-9e57-cbdde122ac0c?accessToken=zwAGFDs8B27QkdOY8VtgvE1NP NOeV8vd4SKsDA.MEUCIQCAqwDD1ZfKThzEa6hGVeu0Ply6BkgA tJCVDBU5jf6hhgIgPKwXgdP7omrlIBG-5rbKrAl5Jjn8Je2BdxyOfe0WL7M&sharetype=gift&token=5a39f9ef-8bda-4380-a172-79c9cddfca46

Nowe at the latest Ukraine should know how trustworthy its Western allies are. In the end they are not really interested in Ukraine winning and Russia loosing. True for the US. True for European nations. True for the EU.

Nobody wants Ukraine to win. At best they hope, they pray that Russia will voluntarily give it up. If they please, yes?

All I can say about that FT article is unlike Europe, Biden banned the U.S. from importing Russian oil, LNG and coal over a year ago. We don't use it, we don’t really care, it doesn’t affect us one bit, so bombs away! However, IF he really did say something it might have been a warning to Ukraine on account of Russia’s recent response to losing its refinery. Which was hammering the dogsnot out of Ukraine’s energy sector the last few days.

Dargo

03-22-24, 02:28 PM

To protect Putin and keep the population suppressed, Moscow literally has an army of security forces. And yet several gunmen in military clothing, were tonight able to casually walk around a large theatre arena, killing people at random and then all magically escaped. FSB says 40 people were killed and more than 100 injured in the Crocus City Hall attack in the Moscow region. The US through John Kirby says there are no indications that Ukraine was involved in the terrorist attack. Smells like a false flag operation 20 people (according to eyewitnesses) armed with automatic weapons, explosives, flamethrowers and cameras with facial recognition in Moscow? The third Special Forces group entered the "Crocus City Hall" in Moscow. The attackers' car, which could be mined, is parked in the car park in front of Crocus. It was cordoned off, law enforcers have blocked all exits from Moscow. The traffic police is conducting random checks along the entire Moscow Ring Road.https://meduza.io/en/live/2024/03/22/terrorist-attack-at-concert-hall-outside-moscow

Two weeks ago, the US warned for this https://ru.usembassy.gov/security-alert-avoid-large-gatherings-over-the-next-48-hours/

Rockstar

03-22-24, 02:53 PM

Skybird

03-22-24, 03:01 PM

The Kremlin will know how to make best use of this, no matter whether it was a hostile attack or a false flag attack. The explanaiton they once will giv ein the near future mjst be taken with utmost caution, and most likely will be tailored according to the Kremlins opportunity ot make bets use of this, n matter what realyl happened.

A false flag terror attack would not be a first in Putler'S biography, he did it before, and repeatedly.

He is collecting momentum, with the farce he just "won", and the change in war terminology, and the chance for imminent mobilization, and the expectation of a new Russian offensive coming this summer.

Meanwhile, recent attack waves show that Ukraine's air defences have wide open gaps now. And after the last night they are even bigger - severla more Patriot system should have been taken out. The energy grid has taken a devastating beating.

The situation has become desperate for Ukraine. The ongoing detoriation of the overall situation seems to accelerate. The West cannot or does not want to give the needed answers.

This way - no way.

mapuc

03-22-24, 03:27 PM

For me it smells like Islamic Terrorisme

It is not the Ukrainian who's behind it-It's not their way of conducting civilian warfare.

Markus

Dargo

03-22-24, 03:35 PM

This is the Russians themselves if you go out on the street in Moscow and stand with a blank paper you get arrested for protesting against the military by security forces but if you go in military gear with openly armed with fully automatic AK-type assault rifles start massacre a theatre and can all escape it is a fact the FSB is behind this. Moscow and St Petersburg the FSB is getting large sum of the military budget, they patrol these cities 24/7 with an FSB army there is no escape... only for their own colleagues. They will blame it on Islamist or Ukraine this is all to prepare Russians with more propaganda and fear so that Putin can do more if his sees it sunk in and Russian accept disinformation.

mapuc

03-22-24, 03:55 PM

This is the Russians themselves if you go out on the street in Moscow and stand with a blank paper you get arrested for protesting against the military by security forces but if you go in military gear with openly armed with fully automatic AK-type assault rifles start massacre a theatre and can all escape it is a fact the FSB is behind this. Moscow and St Petersburg the FSB is getting large sum of the military budget, they patrol these cities 24/7 with an FSB army there is no escape... only for their own colleagues.

Yes some of you have mentioned false flag-The question is who are they going to blame for this ? Ukraine ? One of NATO's member ?

Or is it for domestic purpose this false flag operation ?

Markus

Von Due

03-22-24, 04:42 PM

There really isn't much to go on at this time as to who's behind it.
Russians dissatisfied with the state their country's in, with a war and staged elections?
Are there links to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict?
Is there a link to Ukraine? To Chechnya?
Foreign powers? False flag?
Who knows. There just isn't any way to tell at this time.

Skybird

03-22-24, 05:53 PM

The IS is said to have claimed responsibility for the attack. Echt jetzt...?

Von Due

03-22-24, 07:40 PM

US officials are now strongly suggesting ISIS was behind it. It is unconfirmed at the moment but absolutely a possibility.

Rockstar

03-22-24, 10:51 PM

The U.S. has a duty to inform others against barbaric terrorist attacks. What’s going on between Russia and Ukraine is a gentleman’s game. :hmmm:

Anyway, two things. Might be a false flag to gain domestic support for mobilization and escalation against Ukraine. OR, after seeing Russias weakness against Ukraine, Islamic jihad originating from former Soviet and oppressed central Asian States is blossoming. If it’s the later the good thing is the Federation is losing control and in its death throes. The bad thing is it could spill over and light the world on fire.

August

03-23-24, 01:09 AM

Russian security forces are not omnipotent. They're good for busting up a political rally and rounding up civilians but Russia also has a very large and active underworld that they aren't so good at tackling. They're not that good at stopping the Jihadis either which is who I think may be behind it.

em2nought

03-23-24, 02:41 AM

Jimbuna

03-23-24, 06:24 AM

Four people directly involved in the Moscow concert hall attack are among 11 detained, Russia's security chief tells President Putin.

At least 115 people were killed when gunmen attacked a packed concert venue on the outskirts of Moscow, Russia says.

More than 140 others were wounded at the Crocus City Hall, according to the FSB Federal Security Service.

The US says it's credible that the Islamic State group could be behind the attack, after it said the group did it. Russia has not commented.

A large fire engulfed the roof of the complex and dramatic video shows panicked concertgoers taking cover as shots and explosions ring out.

The White House says it is working to find out more about the situation and Ukraine has denied any involvement in the attack.

Jimbuna

03-23-24, 06:38 AM

Total combat losses of Russian Federation since beginning of war - about 435,760 people (+1,050 per day), 6,852 tanks, 10,811 artillery systems, 13,130 armoured combat vehicles.

Since the beginning of the full-scale Russian invasion, Ukrainian defenders have eliminated about 435,760 Russian invaders.

As noted, the total combat losses of the enemy from 24.02.22 to 23.03.24 are approximately:

personnel - about 435760 (+1050) people,

tanks - 6852 (+12) units,

armored combat vehicles - 13130 (+19) units,

artillery systems - 10811 (+36) units,

MLRS - 1018 (+0) units,

air defense systems - 723 (+0) units,

aircraft - 347 (+0) units,

helicopters - 325 (+0) units,

UAVs of operational and tactical level - 8463 (+75),

cruise missiles - 1992 (+39),

ships/boats - 26 (+0) units,

submarines - 1 (+0) units,

motor vehicles and tankers - 14344 (+57) units,

special equipment - 1768 (+19) Source: https://censor.net/en/p3480257

Rockstar

03-23-24, 09:22 AM

I guess ISIS-K is on Ukraine's side? :hmmm:

If ISIS-K crossed Russia's border and launched an attack in Moscow, I wonder how many of those buggers Biden has left to run free inside the USA? :hmmm: I can just imagine the USPS packages of "made in USA" items arriving for them from their hovels in Afghanistan. :har:
https://steamuserimages-a.akamaihd.net/ugc/1649969816691362185/E536D1C45D7D167F7E574F917A3675ECAD5DAE9C/?imw=268&imh=268&ima=fit&impolicy=Letterbox&imcolor=%23000000&letterbox=true

No they’re not on Ukraine’s side, Islam is in the side of Islam. IMO seeing Russia’s weakness they saw a window of opportunity. You could say there are a diverse bunch national awakenings occurring in Central Asia. As we all know one man’s terrorist is another man’s freedom fighter and at the moment things are looking bright for the West in Central Asia. https://eurasianet.org/

In other news I see Putin is addressing the attack but is focusing on Ukraine instead of those disgruntled neighbors on his southern borders that probably lead the attack

I see the spam bot is still at it.

mapuc

03-23-24, 11:31 AM

Dargo

03-23-24, 12:03 PM

When watching Putins speech on this terror attack and where he mentioned Ukraine. False flag came into my mind again. So far I was thinking Islamic terrorist.

False flag for what reason(s)

They have already bombed Ukraine partly back to stone age

Only cause I can come up with is that Putin need a scapegoat to get his citizens accept of a general mobilization-E.g. Ukraine has declared war by this terror attack(the false flag operation)

MarkusUkraine does attack inside Russia but never a public place those kinda attacks would backfire, what they attack are industry and energy facilities. Russia has in the south a large Islamic population, they could always deal with this via repression by proxy. And why as Islamic group would you attack after the "election" it has more effect if they had done it before. I really do not care, Russia has committed deadlier terrorist attacks, for example shooting down MH17, killing 298 people, the Bucha massacre and the ongoing missile attack on Ukraine cities. False flag or not the Russian regime do what they're done under the soviet regime there is no real difference, only Russia now is a capitalistic state.

Jimbuna

03-23-24, 12:59 PM

At least 133 people were killed and more than 140 injured when gunmen attacked a packed concert venue on the outskirts of Moscow, Russia says.

A large fire engulfed the roof of the complex and dramatic video shows panicked concertgoers taking cover as shots and explosions ring out.

Russian President Vladimir Putin says all four gunmen have been arrested, and that the suspects were trying to flee to Ukraine - Kyiv says allegations of Ukrainian involvement are "absurd"

Putin calls the attack a "barbaric terrorist act" and announces a day of national mourning for 24 March.

Muscovites are queuing to give blood for those injured and flower tributes have been placed at the scene of the attack.

The US says it's credible that the Islamic State group could be behind the attack, after the group said it did it. Russia has not commented.

Skybird

03-23-24, 01:50 PM

When watching Putins speech on this terror attack and where he mentioned Ukraine. False flag came into my mind again. So far I was thinking Islamic terrorist.
Dont make it complicated. Putin lies because the lie he can benefit from. That simple.

mapuc

03-23-24, 04:40 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aDGGFU7HuYg&ab_channel=UkraineMatters

Markus

Rockstar

03-23-24, 07:53 PM

It’s all becoming clear now. :O:

https://i.ibb.co/2MssyMQ/IMG-3549.jpg

ET2SN

03-23-24, 08:16 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BrpzRGWahSk

:hmmm:

The usual caveats with Peter:

-He likes to hear himself talk.
-He likes to hear himself talk to people who aren't sure if they should tie their shoe laces or not- as long as they pay to hear him talk.

:03:

em2nought

03-24-24, 07:05 AM

It’s all becoming clear now. :O:

https://i.ibb.co/2MssyMQ/IMG-3549.jpg

I'm pretty sure "they" don't feel they can let our coming vote in November progress in a natural manner. :03:

Jimbuna

03-24-24, 08:09 AM

Moscow attack: Did Russia ignore US 'extremist' attacks warning?

There are always questions after any attack as to why it was not stopped or detected. But the Moscow attack raises particularly difficult issues for Vladimir Putin at a time of international tension and mistrust. And much of that comes because of a warning from Washington.

The 7 March warning from the US to its own citizens was unusually specific. It talked of reports that "extremists" had "imminent plans to target large gatherings in Moscow" and specifically mentioned concerts. It advised Americans in the city to avoid large gatherings over the coming 48 hours.

The timing may not quite match, but other details do tally closely with events on 22 March. It seems clear Washington had some kind of intelligence and that it related to Islamic State (IS) - the group that has issued a statement saying it was behind the Moscow attack.

As well as the public warning to its own citizens, the US also said it had communicated with the Russian government directly.

"The US government also shared this information with Russian authorities in accordance with its long-standing 'duty to warn' policy," a US official said in a statement after the attack.

There are channels through which intelligence is shared between countries - even those that are not allies - especially when it relates to possible attacks on civilians.

But the problem is that Moscow dismissed the warnings.

Three days before the attack, Russian President Vladimir Putin addressed the board of Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB), whose job is to defend the country. The top priority, he told the assembled leaders of the security service, was to support what he called the special military operation - the official phrase for the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

He claimed that Ukraine had switched to what he called "terrorist tactics". He also spoke directly to what he said were "provocative statements" from the West about potential attacks within Russia. He said the warnings "resemble outright blackmail and the intention to intimidate and destabilise our society".

That suggests that the mistrust between the US and Russia meant Moscow may not have wanted to listen and instead saw the warnings as part of an attempt to threaten Russia, linked to the Ukraine conflict.

We do not yet know the exact nature of the information the US possessed or passed or how clear it was. Intelligence can often be vague and hard to act on.

But the US has a vast intelligence-gathering machine and watches IS closely. The branch suspected of the Moscow attack was also linked to one on US forces and civilians at Kabul airport in August 2021, as well as more recent deadly bombings in Iraq.

But if the intelligence that was shared with Russia was credible and specific about IS, then the FSB and Mr Putin might appear to be on the back foot about why they did not take it more seriously.

And if so, it may be easier for Moscow to relate the attack in some way to Ukraine in order to deflect blame and also build support for Russia's actions there, rather than acknowledge what they might have missed.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68646375

Dargo

03-24-24, 08:22 AM

The claim of ISIS-K or IS-KP (Islamic State - Khorasan Province) does not fit Putin's bill. To admit that 350,000 people working in the FSB alone that could not prevent this terror attack that ISIS-K is behind it is already very painful for that reason. Then he has to admit that someone somewhere has failed incredibly that the anti-terrorism measures of his government are not working, that his intelligence services have failed, and ultimately he is responsible for that.

ISW assesses that the Islamic State (IS) is very likely responsible for the Crocus City Hall attack. IS Amaq’s News Agency took responsibility for the attack on the night of March 22, claiming that IS fighters attacked a “large gathering of Christians” on the outskirts of Moscow, “killing and wounding hundreds and causing great destruction...before they [the attackers] withdrew to their bases safely.”[8] The Amaq News Agency later posted a blurred-out image of the four fighters who it claimed conducted its “fiercest attack in years” standing in front of an IS flag.[9] The Amaq News Agency announcement is consistent in terms of style, branding, and language with previous Amaq claims for other attacks. IS media organs make deceptive or false claims only ”infrequently” and carefully and try to maintain “high credibility” in their communique in order to define clear ideological objectives and maintain fundraising streams.[10] IS propaganda enables the group to fundraise and disseminate its guidance to lower-level commanders and supporters--IS risks discrediting itself within the competitive Salafi-jihadi community by falsely taking credit for very high-profile attacks. The conduct of the attack itself is also consistent with previous IS attacks, including the 2015 Paris terror attacks.[11] The IS fighters in the Crocus City Hall and some of those involved in the 2015 Paris attacks exfiltrated the target and subsequently evaded security forces for a time.[12]

The Islamic State’s Afghan branch IS-Khorasan (IS-K) may have conducted the Crocus City Hall attack. This branch has conducted at least four high-profile attacks outside of central Asia in the last 18 months.[13] US Central Command Commanding General Michael Kurilla notably stated in March 2023 that IS-K would be able to conduct “external operations against US or Western interests abroad in under six months,” meaning that Western intelligence had already assessed that IS and IS-K would be able to field the capabilities for such external attacks by September 2023.[14] US intelligence most recently confirmed that IS-K was responsible for a bombing attack in Kerman, Iran as recently as January 2024, further highlighting IS external attack capabilities.[15] Allegations that the Crocus City Hall attack was a false flag operation are inconsistent with the evidence ISW has observed from the attack itself correlated with other reports of previous IS external attacks that ISW and CTP have covered since the emergence of the Islamic State, as well as the IS claim pattern following the attack.[16] It is also highly unlikely that IS would have conducted the attack on the orders of Ukrainian special services, which several Russian sources have alleged. Amaq News Agency is IS’s central media arm. IS would not falsely claim an attack that may have been conducted by one Christian state against another (or by the Kremlin against Russia’s own people in some sort of false-flag operation), because the implications of IS conducting an attack at the behest of a predominantly Christian country would damage IS credentials within the Salafi-Jihadi community... https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-23-2024