View Full Version : Here we go again-Ukraine once again pt2
Rockstar
11-18-23, 04:02 PM
If Trump wins well there are those who says he will end this military aid to Ukraine and instead force Ukraine to a ceasefire and/or a peace treaty under Russian terms.
This is only speculation though. He may say one things during his campaign and do otherwise after been elected.
There are different polls
Some indicate that the Average Americans are for or against US military aid to Ukraine.
Markus
That sure is a lot of hearsay. :)
Here’s what Trump said:
"I know Zelenskyy very well, and I know Putin very well, even better. And I had a good relationship, very good with both of them. I would tell Zelenskyy, no more. You got to make a deal. I would tell Putin, if you don't make a deal, we're going to give him a lot. We're going to [give Ukraine] more than they ever got if we have to. I will have the deal done in one day. One day,"
What exactly the deal is, is unknown and I have doubts anything could be accomplished in one day but you never know. I do believe it when said he’d give more to Ukraine than they ever imagined, if Putin doesn’t make a deal. Trump may be the biggest trash talker to some. But ya gotta give him credit, when he became president he set out to fulfill every one of his campaign promises.
That sure is a lot of hearsay. :)
Here’s what Trump said:
"I know Zelenskyy very well, and I know Putin very well, even better. And I had a good relationship, very good with both of them. I would tell Zelenskyy, no more. You got to make a deal. I would tell Putin, if you don't make a deal, we're going to give him a lot. We're going to [give Ukraine] more than they ever got if we have to. I will have the deal done in one day. One day,"
What exactly the deal is, is unknown, and I have doubts anything could be accomplished in one day. But I do believe it when said he’d give more to Ukraine than they ever imagined, if Putin doesn’t make this ‘deal. He may be the biggest trash talker to some. But ya gotta give this, when he became president he set out to fulfill every one of his campaign promises.If Trump can be convinced that supporting Ukraine will result in a bigger profit than supporting Putin, he will go for Ukraine supporting Ukraine will give a huge boost to the US economy and its global security.
Jeff-Groves
11-18-23, 04:26 PM
Some indicate that the Average Americans are for or against US military aid to Ukraine.
Well there you go. I'd say that is 100% even though it makes no sense.
:har:
Catfish
11-18-23, 04:35 PM
Biden does not rule alone. Senate and Congress have their role, too. :03:
And if Trump wins the next election (what i doubt) there will be some.. reconsideration.
Of course this would be perfect since HE HIMSELF has said that he will. "... instantly end the war".
Well there you go. I'd say that is 100% even though it makes no sense.
:har:
:oops::har:
The correct sentence should have been
There's different polls in the US, in some the American is for helping Ukraine, while other polls show otherwise.
Markus
Russia in the hope that the enemy will tire or run out of ammunition that's not working because of the ammunition supply to Ukraine is sufficient to hold them back the technology that Ukraine is developing and continues to develop is destroying them before they can move Russia are still moving tanks in daylight they're still moving tanks without camouflage they're still charging across open fields they're charging across their own minefields so it's the Russian general operational procedures shambolic at the lowest levels they don't know how to proceed they really don't they're still stuck in systems that were in place in the 1960s.
And they haven't learned anything in the last 20 months except in electronic warfare where they're using their electronic capability to bring down Ukrainian drones in at the same time the Ukrainians have up the game they've started to develop their own ballistic missiles they've started to develop their own long range drones so they're not relying on the rules laid down by the West of you can only use it in the combat zone you can't use it against Russian military targets over the border, so they're moving forward, and they're moving forward very quickly, the word stalemate aggravates me somewhat because I think it's a word that's being planted to make people in the US particularly in the House of Representatives to say oh well it's all a waste of time it's a waste of money why are we doing this they're not really important to us the isolationists and the Putin supporters that exist their so they've got this strange situation where you've got the world starting to believe that it's all coming to a grinding halt.
Well, it isn't coming to a grinding halt Russia can no longer operate their Navy in the Black Sea, the North Coast of the Sea of Azov now under Ukrainian fire they can't operate their they've had to move their Air Force and their helicopters back to Russia there's a great deal to be said that's successful. Doom and gloom never won any war. There's far more aspects to this issue than just oh we can manufacture this many bombs the Americans and Europe are upping the anti it's not that easy to switch from ploughs to swords again they've got to get the staff they've got to get the machine they've got to put it together that's a process that can't be done in as quickly as what many people would like. How remarkable is that, that Russia, with three times the population, all the resources in the world, every single advantage, air superiority that the Russians are not able to do any more than they've done. The Russians have not destroyed a single convoy or train in two years, bringing equipment and ammunition from Poland into Ukraine.
I rather trust in NATO generals experienced in former wars than a Swiss that country that not fought or committed to any conflict for centuries a people that stays out of any conflict cowardly but when they can profit supply anything to fascists that rejected yews in WWII seeking a way to survive genocide except when you bring enough gold to buy your way in Switzerland a policy not ended as of today.
Ukrainian defence forces repel largest number of assaults on Avdiivka and Marinka fronts
A total of 64 clashes between Ukrainian and Russian forces occurred on Saturday, 18 November, with Ukrainian forces repelling 23 Russian assaults on the Marinka front, 6 on the Kupiansk front, 7 on the Bakhmut front, and 3 on the Shakhtarsk front.
Source: General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on Facebook, information as of 18:00 on 18 November
Details: Over the course of the day, Ukraine’s defence forces clashed with Russian forces 64 times. Russian forces carried out 5 missile strikes and 58 airstrikes and deployed multiple-launch rocket systems (MLRS) 33 times to attack the positions of Ukrainian troops and civilian settlements. Russian forces also deployed Shahed-136/131 drones to attack critical infrastructure facilities in Ukraine on the night of 17–18 November. Ukraine’s air defence intercepted 29 out of 38 Russian attack drones.
Russian attacks killed and injured civilians and damaged private residential houses and other civilian infrastructure targets.
There were no significant changes on the Volyn and Polissia fronts.
Russia continues to maintain its forces near the Ukrainian border on the Sivershchyna and Slobozhanshchyna fronts and is conducting sabotage and reconnaissance operations, shelling Ukrainian settlements from Russian territory, and amassing mines and other defensive constructions along the Ukrainian border. Russian aircraft struck an area near Stepok (Sumy Oblast). Around 20 Ukrainian civilian settlements came under Russian artillery and mortar fire, including Kliusy, Yanzhulivka and Mykhalchyna Sloboda (Chernihiv Oblast); Znob-Novhorodske, Rozhkovychi and Chuikivka (Sumy Oblast); and Ohirtseve, Hatyshche and Pletenivka (Kharkiv Oblast).
On the Kupiansk front, Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive operations near Synkivka and to the east of Petropavlivka (Kharkiv Oblast), with Ukrainian forces repelling 6 Russian assaults. Russian aircraft struck areas in the vicinity of Holubivka, Petropavlivka, Kucherivka and Ivanivka (Kharkiv Oblast). Russian forces also deployed mortars and artillery to attack more than 10 settlements, including Synkivka, Petropavlivka, Ivanivka, Kyslivka, Kotliarivka and Tabaivka (Kharkiv Oblast).
Russian forces carried out offensive operations near Torske (Donetsk Oblast) on the Lyman front and airstrikes near Bilohorivka (Luhansk Oblast) and Verkhnokamianske, Terny and Spirne (Donetsk Oblast). Around 15 Ukrainian settlements, including Makiivka and Nevske (Luhansk Oblast) and Yampolivka, Torske, Dibrova and Spirne (Donetsk Oblast), came under Russian mortar and artillery fire.
On the Bakhmut front, Russian forces carried out assaults near Klishchiivka and Andriivka (Donetsk Oblast), with Ukrainian forces repelling 7 Russian assaults. More than 20 civilian settlements, including Bohdanivka, Ivanivske, Klishchiivka, Andriivka, Druzhba and Pivdenne (Donetsk Oblast), came under Russian mortar and artillery fire.
Russian forces carried out several unsuccessful offensive operations to the east of Keramik, Novobakhmutivka, Stepove and Avdiivka (Donetsk Oblast) on the Avdiivka front, with Ukrainian forces repelling 23 Russian assaults. Russian forces also deployed aircraft to strike areas near Avdiivka (Donetsk Oblast) and deployed artillery and mortars to attack around 15 civilian settlements, including Keramik, Berdychi, Orlivka, Avdiivka, Sieverne and Pervomaiske (Donetsk Oblast).
On the Marinka front, Russian forces conducted unsuccessful aircraft-supported offensive operations near Marinka and Novomykhailivka (Donetsk Oblast), with Ukrainian forces repelling 21 Russian assaults. Krasnohorivka, Marinka, Heorhiivka, Novomykhailivka, Katerynivka and Yelyzavetivka (Donetsk Oblast) came under Russian fire.
Russian forces also conducted unsuccessful offensive operations in the vicinity of Staromaiorske (Donetsk Oblast) on the Shakhtarsk front, with Ukrainian forces repelling 3 assaults. Russian forces carried out airstrikes near Vuhledar (Donetsk Oblast). Around 10 civilian settlements, including Vuhledar, Novoukrainka, Prechystivka, Zolota Nyva and Urozhaine (Donetsk Oblast), came under Russian artillery and mortar fire.
On the Zaporizhzhia front, Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive operations near Robotyne and Novoprokopivka and to the west of Verbove (Zaporizhzhia Oblast). More than 25 civilian settlements came under Russian artillery and mortar fire, including Luhivske, Orikhiv, Novodanylivka, Robotyne, Kamianske and Prymorske (Zaporizhzhia Oblast).
On the Kherson front, Mykhailivka, Tiahynka, Veletenske and the city of Kherson (Kherson Oblast) came under Russian artillery fire.
Meanwhile, Ukraine’s defence forces are continuing to pursue the offensive on the Melitopol front and to carry out offensive operations on the Bakhmut front. They are inflicting personnel and equipment losses on the Russian forces and wearing them out all along the frontline.
The General Staff also reported that around 20 Russian soldiers deserted the 144th Separate Motorised Rifle Brigade of the Russian Armed Forces near Krynky (Kherson Oblast).
Russian occupation forces are continuing to steal from Ukrainian civilians and are appropriating grain grown by Ukrainian farmers. Russian occupation authorities in Berdiansk (Zaporizhzhia Oblast) are using ships to try and take wheat stolen from Ukraine to Russian ports.
Over the course of today, Ukrainian aircraft carried out 6 airstrikes on clusters of Russian military personnel.
Units of Ukrainian Rocket Forces and Artillery struck a Russian command post, a cluster of Russian military personnel, weapons and equipment, an artillery system, and an ammunition storage point. https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/11/18/7429373/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Fi38Zv8ROo
Skybird
11-19-23, 06:23 AM
https://cdn.tickaroo.com/api/mediaproxy/v1/external-image/ThumbnailatorCropResizeCenterFillFilter/w1200dp-h1200dp-webp?url=https%3A%2F%2Fpbs.twimg.com%2Fmedia%2FF_S HDu9WUAEfMLp.jpg%3Alarge
The M-55 weas developed in the mid- and late 70s and early 80s.
And a speaker of the ukrainian defence ministry has put the reports about a Ukrainian landing on the other side of the Dnjepr at Cherson into numbers. "3-5 km wide and deep", she said. By the huge headlines and loud reporting I honestly was left a bit unimpressed by that. In the past ten days or so it was given the impression the Russians were fleeing by the many thousands and far, far away from Cherson. But a retreat of this small scale sounds more like a tactical regrouping to adapt to small changes in the tactical situation, than a huge landing and breaching. And while Ukraine may have the opportunity to use this area to bring more material and men over the river, it seems it struggles to find both to send them over in sufficient quantity.
The best answer to why the Russians are so crazy at Avdiivka is the upcoming Russian elections. They need a victory of any kind for the propaganda of how well the war runs.
I wonder if Putin still is alive? Since some time now I have a nagging voice in my head telling me he is not.
Jimbuna
11-19-23, 06:53 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZjElWt-iU2w
Jimbuna
11-19-23, 08:11 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xgSE16yHF2c
Skybird
11-19-23, 11:45 AM
Think they will not be able to avoid total conscription sooner or laster. Rather sooner. Will not be a service to majo morale and skill levels, but they need hingher numbers than currently. Hopwever, most of the younger generations and the best suited ones they already have consummed. Acceptance age has been raised several times over the past 16 months or so.
Horrible situation for those getting the notice and were not already willing to go at all.
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/11/19/europe/ukraine-difficulties-in-military-recruitment-intl/index.html
Think they will not be able to avoid total conscription sooner or laster. Rather sooner. Will not be a service to majo morale and skill levels, but they need hingher numbers than currently. Hopwever, most of the younger generations and the best suited ones they already have consummed. Acceptance age has been raised several times over the past 16 months or so.
Horrible situation for those getting the notice and were not already willing to go at all.
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/11/19/europe/ukraine-difficulties-in-military-recruitment-intl/index.html
Taking these problems in to consideration one would say that time is on Russian side of the conflict.
However how eager is Ukraine to make a peace treaty under Russian terms ?
and
However how eager is Nato in seeing Russia winning the war ?
I myself see lights in the end of the tunnel. They will give order to general mobilization, where any one between 16* and 70 are being called to duty
* Those who's under 18 and over 65 will be placed behind the frontline helping with different task there.
Markus
Jimbuna
11-19-23, 01:27 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HCiPt6NTxOU
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bp3lTYDvX_4&ab_channel=UkraineMatters
Markus
Skybird
11-19-23, 05:53 PM
* Those who's under 18 and over 65 will be placed behind the frontline helping with different task there.
You are no battle hardened trooper at 16 or 65. Reflexes and stamina goes down with age, so does stress resistence, sense of balance, memory. Health.
Germany had child soldiers 80 years ago. They were not really of help.
The young adult men of preferred age are either already drawn and left again or were killed or crippled, or have fled the country.
Heck, russia's population is four times bigger than that of Ukraine, if not bigger. And no matter what these endless super dooper videos claim, nobody can convince me the Russians suffer four times as many KIAs and MIAs than the Ukrainians. They suffer much higher losses, but not higher on that scale, and not war-decidingly more. Compared to the potentially available force pool, Ukraine suffers more, despoite higher Russian losses.
You are no battle hardened trooper at 16 or 65. Reflexes and stamina goes down with age, so does stress resistence, sense of balance, memory. Health.
Germany had child soldiers 80 years ago. They were not really of help.
The young adult men of preferred age are either already drawn and left again or were killed or crippled, or have fled the country.
Heck, russia's population is four times bigger than that of Ukraine, if not bigger. And no matter what these endless super dooper videos claim, nobody can convince me the Russians suffer four times as many KIAs and MIAs than the Ukrainians. They suffer much higher losses, but not higher on that scale, and not war-decidingly more. Compared to the potentially available force pool, Ukraine suffers more, despoite higher Russian losses.
I was thinking more in terms of helping with civilian defence and help farmers for those under 18 or over 65.
Have to admit that Ukrainian losses is due to the size of the population far more severe than the Russians losses.
Losing 10.000 Ukrainian is in percentage higher than the Russian ditto.
From memory
Ukraine had something with 100-200.000 active soldiers and around 1 million reserve.
How many there are left today I can't say.
Back to the young ones. In Sweden and Denmark every 16-18 years citizens are called upon civilian defence service.
Markus
Jimbuna
11-20-23, 06:43 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s7aa8asCAdk
Skybird
11-20-23, 10:31 AM
The guests may not already have left Ukraine's invitation dinner, but more and more of them start to look for where their coats hang.
https://www.dw.com/en/could-a-ukraine-under-siege-join-nato/a-67428580
However, its also part of the truth that currently nobody is able to show a realistic way how to win the war by defeating Russia on all Ukrainian soil and driving its troops out. I do not see seriosu ambitions ot realise this - just alibi actions to no getting accused of doing nothing. Support by quantities and qualities needed to win the war I do not expect becoming reality anymore - mainly due to lacking Western will but also due to lacking Western reserves and production capacity.
The ultimate defeat, even if it is still a long way off and the war will then become a frozen conflict, is beginning to loom. And that means bad things for Europe.
Countries like Austria are still fully engaged in buying Russian gas until this very present time. Hungary not even mentioned. Half of Europe, it seems, still hangs on the Russian gas drip, or what?
You are no battle hardened trooper at 16 or 65. Reflexes and stamina goes down with age, so does stress resistence, sense of balance, memory. Health.
Germany had child soldiers 80 years ago. They were not really of help.
The young adult men of preferred age are either already drawn and left again or were killed or crippled, or have fled the country.
Heck, russia's population is four times bigger than that of Ukraine, if not bigger. And no matter what these endless super dooper videos claim, nobody can convince me the Russians suffer four times as many KIAs and MIAs than the Ukrainians. They suffer much higher losses, but not higher on that scale, and not war-decidingly more. Compared to the potentially available force pool, Ukraine suffers more, despoite higher Russian losses.
They don't need to fight, they just need to bleed. :nope:
In Russia's case, this has turned into a war of attrition. As long as they have people to throw into the grinder they can keep pressure on Ukraine.
They don't need to fight, they just need to bleed. :nope:
In Russia's case, this has turned into a war of attrition. As long as they have people to throw into the grinder they can keep pressure on Ukraine.
These young men and women shall not bleed.
As I mentioned in my reply to Skybird-They can be placed on farms or in hospital to help with smaller task.
And the same goes for the elder over 65 years old
Markus
Jimbuna
11-20-23, 01:52 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t3SfF6Kmcns
A sobering article. Some major points below:
The Ukrainian counteroffensive ended without achieving its primary or secondary objectives; It is good that General Zaluzhny made it clear in the Economist article that there will be no breakthrough; Ukrainian operational potential in Zaporizhihia is exhausted;
. From my point of view, the discrepancy between tactics and strategy was too big and consequently, Ukraine's approach during the counteroffensive (small unit) tactics could not deliver the expected objectives;
. But the downside to Zaluzhny's article was one of the words he used: stalemate. I think (and this is purely my own interpretation) that Zelensky's approach centres around exerting continuous pressure on Western partners to provide Ukraine with equipment. In this context, a stalemate, a cessation of activities, or the freezing of the frontline has strong 2015 vibes and could result in the freezing of the war in general. Ukrainian political leadership wants to avoid such an outcome as it may encourage some Western partners to seek to go "back to business as usual" with Russia.
. That's why Zelensky quickly hit back to Zaluzhny's words, saying there was no stalemate. But Zelensky nevertheless dismissed the commander of Ukrainian SOF behind Zaluzhny's back;
. It is, therefore, clear that the relationship between both men is strained;
. Personally, I heard nothing about the issue of "negotiations with Russia";
. I expect Ukrainian attacks in the south (Kherson and Zaporizhiia) to continue over the coming weeks and months, even though they can only deliver tactical gains.
. For weeks, we warned (Rochan) that the Ukrainian intensity of operations would need to decrease due to shortages of artillery munitions (we predicted late September-early October). Ultimately, we were slightly off. Ukrainian access to artillery munitions is limited, resulting in significantly decreased intensity of artillery strikes. With Ukraine's land forces being very artillery-centric, it is hard to imagine any major(ish) offensive actions over the next six months. A lot will depend on the Western supply of artillery munitions. Still, with the US and Europe not fulfilling their production objectives, Ukraine may limit their offensive operations throughout the entire 2024.
. Western supplies of artillery ammunition are not only limited but also occur irregularly, which makes it very difficult to plan fire missions; Likewise, Ukrainians would like to understand the logistics of any system in the long term perspective so that they could plan operations accordingly over a longer period;
. With small exceptions (Kherson and Orikhiv), Ukrainians are now on the defensive along the entire front, which will likely necessitate the creation of fortified lines on the Ukrainian side; This, combined with mobilisation (see below), would significantly decrease pressure on Ukrainian forces needed (also its quality) to defend the frontline;
. The aftermath of the counteroffensive will likely force Kyiv to rework its theory of victory. I think that pushing Russia out of Ukraine (even to pre-FEB22) border will be an incredibly difficult task. As stated, the initiative has shifted. Russia is now on the offensive, and with its economy or war footing, it can produce more of everything compared to Ukraine. Its economic potential can sustain the war, and I expect Russians to conduct several attempts to break the frontline deadlock from now until the end of 2024;
. Ukraine suffers from shortages of almost everything, although its industry is working hard to plug some gaps. For instance, Ukraine plans to produce hundreds of thousands of drones next year, which can not only improve its ISR but fill some gaps caused by an insufficient number of artillery shells;
. The deficit of 152 mm shells is huge, but ideally, over the next few years, Ukrainians would like to make the full switch to NATO's 155 mm standard;
. Ukrainians cannot scale production as fast as the Russians, leaving them vulnerable in many areas (artillery production, armour, drones, missiles); Another interesting, although not necessarily surprising, idea is to push a lot of funding from the government to the private/NGO sector; Ukrainian companies made great quality products and are more cost-effective and flexible in fulfiling military needs; They also respond to changes in requirements quicker;
. Some gaps will be more difficult to address. For instance, many Ukrainian soldiers we spoke to spoke highly of M113s APCs and asked for more; No one asked for ATACMS, but almost everyone asked for M113s; Request for ATACMS was political rather than military driven, although again, everything depends on the numbers; My view is that if Ukrainian soldiers were to choose between hundreds of M113s and 20 ATACMS, they'd choose the former;
. Tanks are neither obsolete nor heading for obsolescence; They are used regularly, and Ukrainians asked for more; They continue to offer a high degree of manoeuvrability, firepower and protection;
. The war is also very drone-centric. There could be 20 drones flying near the frontline along the 10 km wide front. Neither side has the ability to achieve a tactical surprise unless an attack is launched in drone adverse weather (rain with very heavy winds); Readiness to respond to ground attacks is very high. We saw Russian troops (a platoon) walking towards the frontline. Once they were detected, they were engaged by mortars within 30 seconds and by artillery cluster munitions after an additional four minutes. Both sides have capabilities to ISR opposing forces' tactical depths;
. As you are hopefully accustomed to how we report frontline changes (The situation at selected axes and directions), we want to make it clear that probably 90% (if not more) of attacks conducted by both sides involve squad/platoon formations. Company-level attacks are a rarity; That's why initial Russian attacks near Avdiivka were so unusual, as they involved the concurrent deployment of battalions/regiments, something we have not seen since MAR2022;
. Ukrainians suffer from the lack of battalion commanders. That's many in some brigades, battalions were expanded to include new companies;
. Morale is high, but troops are also exhausted; Many have been in the fight for months or, in some cases, more than a year. Legislation has been introduced now to allow 40-day of vacations a year, something which was welcomed by soldiers on the ground;
. The bulk of Ukrainian forces are deployed in or near the front, which makes it very difficult to train and regenerate formations. In this context, I believe that Kyiv's current approach to mobilisation (ongoing but hidden) is insufficient to build up forces necessary for force regeneration, let alone future large-scale counteroffensives;
. Although the initial training has been extended from 30 to 60 days, it still fails to address manpower gaps. Even partial mobilisation would allow currently deployed troops to be rotated, retrained and regenerated, which should improve their survivability (decrease losses) and increase combat effectiveness;
. Although it has already been reported in the Polish press, we confirmed that Polish 155mm Krab SPHS are very versatile. The manufacturer recommends changing the barrel every 1,500 fires. Some Ukrainian guns fired more than 6,000 rounds. As a result, some barrels can now fire 157 mm rounds;
. Russians don't conserve glide bombs;
. Russians continue to operate Ka-52s with three usually on standby; if a target pops up, one helo lights it with a laser and two engage with missiles; They have a new missile with 11-12 km range.
. Ukrainians cannot effectively counter this threat;
. There are concerns that Russians may finally push to reach the Osikl River in the Kharkiv Oblast (they have the capacity); However, at the same time, troops told us that some Russian actions appeared to have a fixing character; We cannot presently assess the likelihood of a Russian large-scale attack in this area;
. The situation in Kupyansk is interesting in that Russians have the capacity to reach the Osikl River; If attacks are successful, Russians may again begin to hit Kharkiv with artillery;
https://postlmg.cc/crqYVFky
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UaxEBlyrRpY&ab_channel=USSGLOBAL
Markus
Jimbuna
11-21-23, 05:50 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=373CCprrBDA
Jimbuna
11-21-23, 06:33 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cz6zU5Kh4L8
Skybird
11-21-23, 08:24 AM
Lets again look beyond the glossy hipphipphooray videos. This is the sober as ever Colonel Reisner.
https://www.n-tv.de/mediathek/videos/politik/Reisner-Ukrainer-ueberquerten-Dnipro-im-Nebel-article24544032.html
He explains that the early fog of this season of the year allowed Ukrainian soldiers to cross the Dnjepr in concealment and Russians drones could not see the the small tiny boats. Ukraine has established some small pockets of forces that have not been really tested by the Russians so far, and they even brought a few armoured vehicles over. The terrain they are in is formerly flooded terrain, and Ukraine has shown to be unable to break out beyond this flooding bassin. The Colonel seems to be sceptical about the heavy relevance of all this, and rates it more as sort of a PR stunt by which the Ukraine tries to hold up its relevance in the international media and perception of the world, to appear as still being able to run military offensive operations, not to get lost behind the Middle East crisis. In other words, its about giving the West signals that it still is a good idea to give material support to Ukraine while the scepticism especially in the English-tongued press asks more and more questions on whether its worth it to continue. So, the military importance of the Dnjepr crossing so far is minor, its more about giving a proof of freedom to act to the Western donators. Ukraine has not been able to make anything more of it so far. There has been no breaching and certainly no breakthrough. The bridgehead currently is vulnerable, since Ukraine cannot really supply it in numbers, there are no solid bridges and no ponton bridges that would be needed to supply it reliably (I assume since these would be seen they would come under immediate Russian artillery fire). Reisner finally reasons about that Ukraine seems to approach its culmination point in this war. This culmination point is defined and gets decided by whether or not the West not only continues but massively increases its material support to Ukraine, not just with ammo, but also new weapons. If the West does not fundamentally raises its support beyond what was given so far, Ukraine will need to cut back on its goals and will not be able to maintain the continuation of its war objectives as defined so far.
I never hid my scepticism in this thread. And I seem to perceive that Reisner's scepticism has risen further over the past months as well. He just does not waste time with explicitly voicing it, he just says: if we do this and do not do that, it will have this and that consequences. Of all militaries advising the TV shows and newspapers on the situation, he really stands out. Follies like "Ukraine will retake Crimea by the end of the year" (Hodges) are unthinkable to be said by him, nor does he support any sort of political propanda or wanted narration. Good man! A studied historian and commander of their Vienna Guards and some tactical analysis think tank and training board. :yeah:
Unfortunately, almost all European politicians refuse to listen to the few warning voices of sober reason out there. The dreamdancing continues. By our rejection of investing what is needed in investements, we put Ukraine on the track to defeat. Always too little, and always late, is our motto.
I am also worried about the iopinion rifts inside NATO governments, and what it means for NATO's worth in case that indeed NATO's article 5 would be called out. My trust in the alliance's security guarantees has clearly suffered in the past 18 months. If I were living in the Baltic, I would be very seriously worried.
The German finance ministry has just locked down the budget and the spending options of all ministries, its a capital fiscal crisis over here. Over 200 billions are missing in their budget. That indicates something about the German financial ability to stand by its bigmouthed words about defending its Eastern neighbours and supporting Ukraine - the material impossibiulities not even taklen into account (production capacities, demography).
I lean myself out of th window and say it loud and clear: regarding germany: Baltic states, you are on your own, dont count on us.
Jimbuna
11-21-23, 09:35 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Fm77-V4G-I
:o Have to admit I do have my doubts
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x282zbvyfdA&ab_channel=Military%26History
Markus
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X2AwAXcScds
Skybird
11-21-23, 04:26 PM
:o Have to admit I do have my doubts
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x282zbvyfdA&ab_channel=Military%26History
Markus
^ Wishful thinking. "Even a Russia in 'total war' cannot compete with Western economic power if the West decides to unleash it", he says from 8th minute on. And then more. Thousands of tanks, thousands of armored personell carriers.
That is the reasoning of the desperate. What he lines out there simply will not happen.
Also, I thinkj he fundamentally misjudges the psychology of Putin. If - and to me by now that is a very big "if" - Putin even still is alive. I have my doubts on that.
^ Wishful thinking. "Even a Russia in 'total war' cannot compete with Western economic power if the West decides to unleash it", he says from 8th minute on. And then more. Thousands of tanks, thousands of armored personell carriers.
That is the reasoning of the desperate. What he lines out there simply will not happen.
Also, I thinkj he fundamentally misjudges the psychology of Putin. If - and to me by now that is a very big "if" - Putin even still is alive. I have my doubts on that.Russia can not compete with the west economical Russian economy is about the size of Italy you think it can compete with top 10 economies nah it just lost about 1 million of its workforce going out of Russia these are highly educated people. Russia has had already problems with shortage of its workforce life expectancies are low it is highly corrupt and has no forced workforce like it had under Stalin. In history, many thought they could beat the US economical boi they were wrong. This war will end exactly as Western policymakers want it to end.
Skybird
11-21-23, 05:21 PM
Russia can not compete with the west economical Russian economy is about the size of Italy you think it can compete with top 10 economies nah it just lost about 1 million of its workforce going out of Russia these are highly educated people. Russia has had already problems with shortage of its workforce life expectancies are low it is highly corrupt and has no forced workforce like it had under Stalin. In history, many thought they could beat the US economical boi they were wrong. This war will end exactly as Western policymakers want it to end.
So what...? None of that affects the outcome of this running war.
They will see this war through, you'll see. Totgesagte leben länger. And Russia has been claimed economically and financially dead a record number of times durign the past 18 months. But the robustness of the Russian economy in this war has been fundamentally underestimated. They tried to summon Russian collapse by wreiting about it.
Russia will pay a heavy price for this war, dont get me wrong. Economcially, financially, and especially demographically and socially and psychologically. But all that comes later and will not decide the running war. I red soem tiem aago that now even a clear majority of mothers and wifes of fallen Russian soldiers support the war and believe the kremlin narrative: all the West is up against them. NATO already wages war on Russia. Its all a NATO plot. This already is WWIII. Russia was attacked and defended itself. The vast majority believes this bull.
Jeff-Groves
11-21-23, 05:24 PM
Russia is bleeding the West of Money and supplies.
You think people in the USA are not tired of costs going up and Billions going to Wars?
Russia is bleeding the West of Money and supplies.
You think people in the USA are not tired of costs going up and Billions going to Wars?
We're bleeding Russia far more than they are bleeding us and i'm ok with continuing to support the Ukrainians in their fight for national survival.
So what...? None of that affects the outcome of this running war.
They will see this war through, you'll see. Totgesagte leben länger. And Russia has been claimed economically and financially dead a record number of times durign the past 18 months. But the robustness of the Russian economy in this war has been fundamentally underestimated. They tried to summon Russian collapse by wreiting about it.
Russia will pay a heavy price for this war, dont get me wrong. Economcially, financially, and especially demographically and socially and psychologically. But all that comes later and will not decide the running war. I red soem tiem aago that now even a clear majority of mothers and wifes of fallen Russian soldiers support the war and believe the kremlin narrative: all the West is up against them. NATO already wages war on Russia. Its all a NATO plot. This already is WWIII. Russia was attacked and defended itself. The vast majority believes this bull. The United States has been involved in numerous military endeavours within Asia, the Middle East and Latin America since the 1960s. Having been in a continuous state of war since the September 11 attacks, they have an annual military budget larger than India, China, Russia, United Kingdom, Germany, Saudi Arabia, and France’s military budgets combined. As Edward Van Dyke Robinson (1900) remarked at the turn of the 20th century, the principal cause of all wars has been economic the key to winning a war is largely economic as well. A more robust economy will rely less on funding and will have a better chance to chase the enemy out completely.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jLYKwh25ZIo&ab_channel=UkraineMatters
Markus
Russia is bleeding the West of Money and supplies.
You think people in the USA are not tired of costs going up and Billions going to Wars?Every dollar spent in Ukraine is a dollar spent in the US this year Ukraine places several contracts for their military with the West it is the same with support to Israel they will spend most of it in the country that supported them that is the deal it all flows back the donator can send their old redundant material and test their new developed material win-win and get contracts for their industry.
Skybird
11-21-23, 06:15 PM
Tnhats all nice and well, but the US doe snot apply all its defence budget onto Ukraine. Russia pretty mich does, currently, and boosted it. And it buys its stuff mostly form tiself, cheaply, getting far more for its budget, in quantity, than the US or Europe. Russian labour is cheap, so are Russian ressources and energy.
Again, all this theoretical arguments of If and When-Then does not affect the fact that the West lacks the will to go all in and produce and donate what is needed. Which would be - by factors - more than what has been given in the past 21 months together.
And the US' ongoing support is questionable. If the courts do not stop Trump, I assume he will become president again, seen from current perspective. And top of his agenda is to take revenge and settle open bills, what he sees as open bills. Even a Biden or other democrat president will have problems with Senate and/or Congress to endlessly pass costly bills on Ukraine. There is not only the ME war, but also Taiwan. So, it is likely US support for Ukraine will not grow, but will wane. And the Europeans alone cannot compete with Russia'S wild determination to either destroy Ukraine or to win the war.
Not to mention that there also is no political unity in views and opinions. Poland has scaled down its support. Germany is naked. France holds back. Spain and other distant Western-Southern EU states have little enthusiasm for supporting the war. Some EU countries still heavily buy energy from Russia. Even the US still buys uran from Russia. France sends nuclear material to Russia for reprocessing. Austria, Hungary, Italy, Spain buy huge, decisive quantities of gas. Bulgaria is an uncertain candidate for NATO loyalty, since it loves Russia quite much.
I would predict that even if Russia directly attacks a NATO country, there still would not necessarily be unity over article 5.
Potentials and realised materialization of potentials are two totally different things. We could perform better. But its just that we do not really want that, for various egoistic motives. And in parts that is even understandable. Its not as if we do not have no problems, economically and financially, at home. We have- Huge problems.
Salushnji understands this and sees it as a big risk, thats why he publicly somewhat confronted Zelensky'S formal optimism in that essay for the Economist. He is very much aware that if the West does not do much more, Ukraine hardly can keep its things together endlessly. Ukraine hangs on a Western drip, that simple.
If things run on like this year and support raises not by factors, then Ukraine will lose. And now be honest to yourself - how likely is it that support will dramatically increase, by factors...? :hmmm: I see no signs for that.
May USA and single countries in Europe come to the conclusion that a massive military aid is needed if Ukraine don't lose the war.
I do not count EU or the European Nato part into this due to the bureaucracy which is the main reason many weapon system hasn't been delivered from Europe.
Many European countries like Denmark and Sweden are going solo for some part and are sending both military and medical aid.
Markus
Tnhats all nice and well, but the US doe snot apply all its defence budget onto Ukraine. Russia pretty mich does, currently, and boosted it. And it buys its stuff mostly form tiself, cheaply, getting far more for its budget, in quantity, than the US or Europe. Russian labour is cheap, so are Russian ressources and energy.
Again, all this theoretical arguments of If and When-Then does not affect the fact that the West lacks the will to go all in and produce and donate what is needed. Which would be - by factors - more than what has been given in the past 21 months together.
And the US' ongoing support is questionable. If the courts do not stop Trump, I assume he will become president again, seen from current perspective. And top of his agenda is to take revenge and settle open bills, what he sees as open bills. Even a Biden or other democrat president will have problems with Senate and/or Congress to endlessly pass costly bills on Ukraine. There is not only the ME war, but also Taiwan. So, it is likely US support for Ukraine will not grow, but will wane. And the Europeans alone cannot compete with Russia'S wild determination to either destroy Ukraine or to win the war.
Not to mention that there also is no political unity in views and opinions. Poland has scaled down its support. Germany is naked. France holds back. Spain and other distant Western-Southern EU states have little enthusiasm for supporting the war. Some EU countries still heavily buy energy from Russia. Even the US still buys uran from Russia. France sends nuclear material to Russia for reprocessing. Austria, Hungary, Italy, Spain buy huge, decisive quantities of gas. Bulgaria is an uncertain candidate for NATO loyalty, since it loves Russia quite much.
I would predict that even if Russia directly attacks a NATO country, there still would not necessarily be unity over article 5.
Potentials and realised materialization of potentials are two totally different things. We could perform better. But its just that we do not really want that, for various egoistic motives. And in parts that is even understandable. Its not as if we do not have no problems, economically and financially, at home. We have- Huge problems.
Salushnji understands this and sees it as a big risk, thats why he publicly somewhat confronted Zelensky'S formal optimism in that essay for the Economist. He is very much aware that if the West does not do much more, Ukraine hardly can keep its things together endlessly. Ukraine hangs on a Western drip, that simple.
If things run on like this year and support raises not by factors, then Ukraine will lose. And now be honest to yourself - how likely is it that support will dramatically increase, by factors...? :hmmm: I see no signs for that.All nice and well when Russia doing so well economical which it does not it lost mayor income from the West that volume they can not sell to others for various reasons if it goes so swell their why did Russia not win by now they are doing so great accord you they should stand in Kyiv +600 days ago.
All nice and well when Russia doing so well economical which it does not it lost mayor income from the West that volume they can not sell to others for various reasons if it goes so swell their why did Russia not win by now they are doing so great accord you they should stand in Kyiv +600 days ago.
The same goes for Ukraine with all the positive things happening at the front especially at the southern frontline-Ukraine should have entered Sevastopol many month ago.
Yes Russia is losing a lot of men and material each day. But it ain't producing major breakthroughs.
As said before. We are in a modern WWI situation along the whole front.
Markus
May USA and single countries in Europe come to the conclusion that a massive military aid is needed if Ukraine don't lose the war.
I do not count EU or the European Nato part into this due to the bureaucracy which is the main reason many weapon system hasn't been delivered from Europe.
Many European countries like Denmark and Sweden are going solo for some part and are sending both military and medical aid.
MarkusUkraine has not lost yet if there is a stalemate this is of both sides there is hardly no ground change for both sides. More than a month after Russia launched an offensive to surround and take Avdiivka, it is approaching the sprawling industrial plant on the outskirts of the city. But the operation so far stands out mainly because of the staggering losses suffered by the units. We can now conclude that this is by far the most expensive Russian attack, for three weeks, on a single city since the war began. It is misleading to measure Ukraine's success only by the territory its troops have captured.
General Valery Zaluzhny said recently that the war had reached a "stalemate" with intense and exhausting fighting that yielded few territorial gains. That created the impression in some quarters that the fighting had ground to a halt. But for the Ukrainian soldiers and medics on the front lines, the violent struggle to stop the relentless Russian attacks as they fight to regain advantageous positions does not feel static at all. We cannot predict or wizards our future, including this war, time will tell.
Skybird
11-21-23, 07:15 PM
All nice and well when Russia doing so well economical which it does not it lost mayor income from the West that volume they can not sell to others for various reasons if it goes so swell their why did Russia not win by now they are doing so great accord you they should stand in Kyiv +600 days ago.You now flip categories. Russia will - in the future - pay a demographic and economic price that will influence it for the coming two or three generations, but if its econoym were so weak and its rubel so weak as so many times was preicted this and last year - why is it still able to maintain the war, and boost war production up?
Russia still stands in this war. And it wins by holding the longer breath.
Ukraine is making a dent here and there in the Russian defences - and that's all. No major wins since last year in Cherson and Charkiv. No operational breakthroughs, nothing of strategic relevance. Russian casualties are high - but they shake them off. All they must do is hold their lines. Ukriane miust take territory. Russia must not, just cling to what it has gotten already. The war of attrition Russia will win. Ukraine must get back into mobile warfare to play its trump card - but with what? A trench warfare must wear out Ukraine much earlier than Russia.
Enough of this, I made my points clear enough, I think. Wishful thinking and speculations on hownice it would be if the West only would do this or that, will not win the war. The way we supoort ukriane right now and have suppr0ted it, we oculd as well have not done it, the reuslt in the end will bve the same - at higher cost for Russia, but also for Ukraine (destruction and killings).
So far we helped to extend the war only, but not to win it - always too little, always too late: just boiling the frog.
Jimbuna
11-22-23, 06:32 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hfuRZARLq-U
Jimbuna
11-22-23, 07:11 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v81gZm-1opQ
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rmMclP8dlI0
This is a little long-winded (and ignore the part about the tactical wallet :nope: ) but it is a very good discussion about the over-all situation.
It’s Time to Ukrainify US Military Assistance
Jahara Matisek (https://mwi.westpoint.edu/author/jahara-matisek/) and William Reno (https://mwi.westpoint.edu/author/william-reno/) | 11.10.23
Ukraine is in a bloody slugfest with Russia. It wasn’t supposed to become an ugly war of attrition—when Russian forces invaded last year, almost nobody expected Ukraine to hold out so long, much less hold its own. In less than two years, Western governments have provided (https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker/) over $80 billion of military aid to Ukraine. Along with training (https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/russia-war-ukraines-hidden-advantage), that material support aimed to build a modern Ukrainian force that could conduct dynamic combined arms maneuver, which requires the close coordination of armor, infantry, artillery, and airpower.
But some of the Western military training is not working. The US military, in particular, as the leading provider of support to Ukrainian forces, is repeating the mistakes of Afghanistan and Iraq. Instead of adapting training methods and objectives to the battlefield realities in Ukraine, the US bureaucracy acts as though the Ukrainians are fighting an American-style conventional war.
There is growing acknowledgement that this training is inadequate. Our observations, including at training facilities in Europe and on the ground in Ukraine’s combat zones as part of a US Department of Defense-funded Minerva research project (https://minerva.defense.gov/Research/Funded-Projects/Article/2469108/foreign-military-training-building-effective-armed-forces-in-weak-states/), point to a more basic flaw: NATO and particularly US trainers tend to train Ukrainian soldiers to fight like American soldiers. The Ukrainian soldiers we interviewed find value in US training and combat drills but are frustrated by US military doctrine and training assumptions biased toward maneuver. Ukraine’s armed forces fight in a context of Russian (and now Ukrainian) continuous defense in depth that is beyond the experience of most US trainers.
Retooling the Training of Ukrainians: Listening and Flexibility
An experienced British Army officer contrasted the American approach with his own: “Our training courses are more effective because we started listening and collaborating with the Ukrainians. . . . They’ve forced us to update our own doctrine, training, and manuals on how to fight a modern war.” The British officer accepted the fact that most Ukrainian soldiers he trains have extensive experience in trench warfare and have faced artillery and armor without the protection of air superiority—battlefield experience that not a single US soldier has today. Such listening and flexibility by British military personnel is not new. Our past fieldwork and interviews across Africa have shown that most infantry prefer to be trained by the British because they listen to their concerns and are flexible in teaching drills and military exercises that simulate the army they have, instead of forcing them to emulate a British template.
Observing Ukrainian soldiers, both at US and NATO training sites and near the front lines in Ukraine, it’s becoming apparent that US training programs are often ineffective. Many American training programs teach the Ukrainians how to fight in the most advanced styles of combined arms warfare. This way of fighting is about concentrating firepower at decisive points on the battlefield to execute a series of dynamic thrusts against enemy positions and create a turbulent and deteriorating situation with which the enemy cannot cope.
Current training approaches teach useful skills and outline sound tactics and maneuvers for battlefield success. But the Ukrainian troops often tell us time is wasted with absurdly long PowerPoint presentations containing useless information. They don’t want training for an ideal military situation. Ukrainians need advice and skills specific to their own military limits (e.g., lack of airpower) and the realities of their battlefield context (e.g., proliferation of drones, jamming, etc.). Russian forces have constructed 800 kilometers of defensive lines (https://english.elpais.com/international/2023-04-17/russia-constructs-800-km-of-defensive-lines-to-head-off-ukrainian-counteroffensive.html) with an “insane (https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/03/europe/ukraine-russia-zaporizhzhia-advance-intl/index.html)” amount of mining of up to “5 mines per square meter,” which per a RUSI report (https://static.rusi.org/Stormbreak-Special-Report-web-final_0.pdf) “included the laying of two anti-tank mines together—one atop the other—compensating for reduced density by ensuring that vehicles are immobilised by single mine-strikes.” This has impeded the ability of the Ukrainians to rapidly advance because of demining operations under fire, leading to an average daily advance of ninety meters (https://www.csis.org/analysis/seizing-initiative-ukraine-waging-war-defense-dominant-world).
Frustration abounds—as one Ukrainian general asked us in an interview, “How do you expect us to conduct a successful counteroffensive when your [US] military does not have the doctrine or experience for what our army is facing?”
https://mwi.westpoint.edu/its-time-to-ukrainify-us-military-assistance/
Jimbuna
11-23-23, 05:57 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rWffpfo_q7I
Jimbuna
11-23-23, 07:11 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YF2hWenTPkM
Can Putin withdraw without losing face ?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ddTod3cllY8&ab_channel=CombatVeteranReacts
Markus
Jimbuna
11-23-23, 12:59 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LcA9nipt8Sc
Jimbuna
11-23-23, 01:43 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BEPwAJhR_uQ
Jeff-Groves
11-23-23, 01:52 PM
Can Putin withdraw without losing face ?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ddTod3cllY8&ab_channel=CombatVeteranReacts
Markus
Advance to the East Ya whanker!
em2nought
11-23-23, 07:17 PM
Can Putin withdraw without losing face ?
Markus
Chesty Puller just said he was attacking in a different direction. :D
https://64.media.tumblr.com/f5159e7bd63dd10fbe8f26ed48e1fa3e/tumblr_mrduguGfxF1sb2gqio1_500.jpg
Jimbuna
11-24-23, 05:29 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d60xeI9n6WE
Jimbuna
11-24-23, 06:10 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mc0orEPeEHg
Jimbuna
11-24-23, 07:50 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4lXCG6Xipqg
Skybird
11-24-23, 08:00 AM
And Erdoghan still delays it despite his opposite announcements from - when was it? 2 or 3 months ago?
https://www-fr-de.translate.goog/politik/erdogan-stellt-klar-tuerkei-bleibt-beim-veto-gegen-schwedens-nato-beitritt-zr-92693135.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp
Jimbuna
11-24-23, 01:23 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oSd7CcZJKDo
And Erdoghan still delays it despite his opposite announcements from - when was it? 2 or 3 months ago?
https://www-fr-de.translate.goog/politik/erdogan-stellt-klar-tuerkei-bleibt-beim-veto-gegen-schwedens-nato-beitritt-zr-92693135.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wappIn the authoritarian country like Turkey parliament still needs to be consulted sure lol Erdoğan has about same powers as Putin Erdoğan wants more and Sweden is a strong card in his extortion game. It is not so important either when Sweden ever gets attacked Finland will assist, so any war will become a war with NATO. And does anybody see Russia ever can invade by sea nah, Sweden does not border to Russia to attack over land they need to invade an NATO member first.
Is the end of Putin near? 'The zest is out, Russians don't believe it any more'
At first glance, Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to have things back under control, but according to Mark Galeotti (58), renowned British historian and author, there is much more going on in the Kremlin than we can see. Putin has reached a dead end, the expert argues.
There is, in your view, wear and tear on Putin's personal legitimacy, his ability to throw money at any social problem and absolute control of the Russian security apparatus.
His legitimacy is changing. Of course, he will win the election next spring with a nice result. But the more he allows the results to be inflated, the more it will demotivate the Russians. They no longer believe it. Russian television viewers have long since stopped taking all these propaganda broadcasts seriously. What says much more than election results are polls in which Russians speak out about the future they wish for their children. Then they say they want their children to get a good education, to be able to travel the world, to have a say in what the world will look like. In other words, they describe democracy without calling it democracy.
But the Russian economy is doing so well?
Life is getting harder, Russians are noticing. Formally, medicine is not covered by the sanctions. I have a friend in Moscow who is very anti-Putin. But when he could no longer get medicine for his daughter at the local drug store, he didn't think "Rot Putin!" but yelled at me, What on earth is the West doing? There is still a lot of money in Russia, but more and more money is being diverted to the war industry. In many ways, the textile industry is now making uniforms instead of civilian clothes. And in the security services, we have seen that when Wagner's uprising occurred, several services first waited a day to see what happened.
Is Putin aware of all that?
Not of everything. In Moscow, I once spoke to a just-retired Russian spy who told me, We have learned not to put bad news on the Tsar's table. In other words, if you have to brief Putin, you tell him things that will please him, absolutely not things that go wrong. Whereas it should be about the critical things. But no, it all gets hushed up for the boss. Generally, you see that happening in the whole Russian system. And then you get such a mishap as the invasion of Ukraine.
Books have been written about why Vladimir Putin seems so taunted by the West, and some of them by Galeotti himself. A few moments in history have contributed to this, he says. For example, Sept. 11, 2001, the terrorist attack on the Twin Towers in New York. Vladimir Putin was among the first to condole the Americans and offer his support to deal with the terrorists. That was appreciated. What Putin totally failed to understand was when he had the Chechens in Grozny bombed, the West called him on human rights. What also hurt was a loose comment by the next U.S. president, Barack Obama, that Russia was really nothing more than a "regional power. I was in Moscow in 2014. That was surreal, right after the Sochi Winter Olympics with all the talk of friendship between nations came the annexation of Crimea causing international relations to deteriorate. And then in May came the big parade of The Day of Victory over Nazi Germany, for which many Western guests cancelled. Understandable, because you don't want to see troops parading who participated in the annexation of Crimea. My Moscow neighbours at the time were genuinely indignant. They did not understand: 'Why are you spitting on all those Russian soldiers who died for freedom in World War II.' They did not see this at all as a principled protest against the events in Crimea. That is what we here find difficult to understand. Any more than we understand how it gets there when we cancel Tchaikovsky concerts or take Russian writers out of the library. The problem is that we feed Putin's propaganda when we do that. It is exactly what he can use for his home front narrative.
But by now, as many as 300,000 Russians would have been killed or wounded on the Ukrainian front. Why does the population put up with that, why are there so few protests?
Why did so few Chinese take to the streets after the crackdown on the Tiananmen Square protests? This is an incredibly brutal police state. Of course, people do watch out. But last week there were small protests in Moscow, from people who want to hear from family members mobilized for the war in Ukraine. There are also people doing sabotage attacks on rail links. But say honestly, who wants to die a hero or end up in jail? https://www.demorgen.be/oorlog-in-oekraine/is-het-einde-van-poetin-nabij-de-fut-is-eruit-de-russen-geloven-het-niet-meer~b82ef092/
Newsweek: Ukraine is winning artillery war against Russia
Ukraine has destroyed thousands of Russian artillery pieces and rocket launchers in the past three months, thanks to the superior range and precision of NATO-supplied weapons and counter-battery radars, according to Newsweek. The losses of Russia’s artillery in Ukraine have significantly depleted the offensive potential of the Russian army in Ukraine, according to Newsweek.
Intensive artillery fire has dominated the battlefields in Ukraine since day one of the full-scale Russian invasion. Russia’s military doctrine has retained its historic focus on artillery. In the early stages of the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, Russian artillerymen were more numerous and well-supplied than Ukrainian artillerymen.
However, the Russian artillery was suppressed as NATO artillery systems reinforced Ukraine’s arsenal. Soaring Russian equipment losses demonstrate the effectiveness of Ukrainian artillery and drone teams, which are hunting down Russian large-caliber guns and multiple-launch rocket systems (MLRS).
From September to November 2023, Ukraine destroyed 2,272 artillery pieces and another 167 MLRS, according to the data of the General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces. For the same period in 2022, Russia lost 789 artillery systems and 108 MLRS during its invasion of Ukraine, according to Ukraine’s General Staff.
https://i.postimg.cc/0jgWHGmQ/Russian-artillery-losses-e1700858851188.jpg
Ivan Stupak, a former officer of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) and current advisor to the Ukrainian parliament’s National Security Committee, told Newsweek that Russian artillery losses are indeed a massive blow to the Russian army. “It’s really a big problem for the Russians. It’s not just a cliché. It’s not Ukrainian propaganda. For the last five months or so, Russia has very actively been using old-style artillery. Not late-Soviet era, but mid-50s and mid-60s—D30 and the D20-type of towed artillery, with a maximum range of around 14 to 18 kilometers (9 to 11 miles),” Ivan Stupak said. “It’s a very short distance; it’s nothing compared with the Archer [modern Swedish-made self-propelled howitzer – ed.],” Stupak added, referring to the artillery system donated to Ukraine by Sweden, which has a range of more than 45 kilometers (around 28 miles).
According to Ivan Stupak, Russian artillery stockpiles “are completely depleted. Outdated Soviet-era artillery systems of the Russian army cannot compete with NATO systems that Ukraine has in terms of precision and range, Ivan Stupak noted. Furthermore, Ukraine’s artillerymen effectively use sophisticated Western-supplied counter-battery radars to locate firing Russian guns quickly.
Russian President Putin is putting the economy on a military footing, but ramping up production of artillery spare parts is challenging and partly depends on Western technology, to which Russia currently has limited access. According to Ivan Stupak, the pressure of worn-out barrels is “a particularly big issue” for the Russian military-industrial complex.
At the same time, Ukraine has “a lot of problems” with the supply of artillery ammunition from European countries, Stupak told Newsweek. “We [Ukraine – ed.] were promised about one million artillery shells, but up to now we’ve got only about 300,000,” Stupak said.
While Ukraine runs out of ammunition for its artillery systems, Russia has received a million shells from North Korea and Iran, Newsweek noted.
On the other hand, the Russian army has a hard time dealing with Western-supplied cluster munitions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The uptick in claimed destroyed Russian guns coincided with the arrival of cluster munitions, which spread hundreds of bomblets over a target area rather than relying on a single shell, Newsweek noted.
Apart from standard cluster munitions, Ukraine also uses HIMARS-fired longer-range cluster munition variants of MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile System (also known as the ATACMS missiles).
Dan Rice, a former aide to Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief General Valerii Zaluzhnyi, told Newsweek that the Ukrainian Armed Forces have “fire superiority” over the Russians and more advanced and effective weapons systems. “The full-scale deployment of cluster artillery shells and rockets has entered a new phase in the war, which is why Putin is suggesting peace talks and calling it a ‘tragedy,” Dan Rice said. According to Dan Rice, Russia is grappling with “deep strikes against large troop concentrations and any Russian artillery or MLRS that fires.” https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/11/24/newsweek-ukraine-is-winning-artillery-war-against-russia/
While it's not possible to verify these figures, independent observers point to very substantial Russian losses in both personnel and equipment. Even with 40% of these loses daily, Russia can not produce up to these lose this is going on for weeks this is the mighty Russian counteroffensive probable their last one.
https://i.postimg.cc/ry0NYY8F/24-November2023.jpg
Well now we have the numbers of how many Russian who has been rendered harmless and how many artillery, AFV and so on has been destroyed
It would be interesting to know how many and how much the Ukrainian have lost ?
I would guess around 1 per three Russian and 1 artillery per 5 Russian artillery.
(just some wild guess)
Markus
An episode from the Battle of Avdiivka
by Ukraine’s 47th Mechanized.
No words.
I’m speechless, to be honest. https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1728078630134136972
In video:The Russians don’t even care about their own comrades, first they drag their wounded comrade over the battlefield and then somewhere in the middle they just let him lie there and rob his coat or blanket. Zombie Warfare In Avdiivka waves after wave of Russian infantry is being sent at Ukrainian positions around the embattled city of Avdiivka with little to no success. The fields are just littered with corpses in response, Ukraine is employing diverse weapons including artillery, mortars, grenades, and drones, as well as the 25mm Chain Gun cannons fired from U.S.-supplied M2 Bradley infantry fighting vehicles. Count the dead Russians lying around on this small area, confirmation that the figures on the number of killed Russian soldiers are quite real.
These highly attritional infantry led ground assaults to compensate for Russian heavy equipment losses will not lead to a rapid Russian advance in the area.
Jimbuna
11-25-23, 06:10 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OpbEgytRfmY
Jimbuna
11-25-23, 06:59 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_G70n3dF19w
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Resh8HQFcUc
Exocet25fr
11-25-23, 07:33 AM
WOW, fantastic News...........!,OK, be serious now......!. Don't believe i'm happy with that!
Ukrainians must ‘grow up’ – security chief
Aleksey Danilov warned his compatriots that the West would not be “feeding us” indefinitely, adding that harder times lie ahead.
https://www.rt.com/news/587958-danilov-ukraine-west-support-hard-times/
A hard truth about the Russia-Ukraine conflict is finally dawning on the West
American observers are finally snapping out of “magical thinking” about Moscow’s defeat. On November 16, the Wall Street Journal, one of the most prestigious and influential American media outlets, published an essay under the title “It’s Time to End Magical Thinking About Russia’s Defeat.” The message is simple: “Putin” (by which they mean Russia) has “withstood the West’s best efforts” to roll back the military operation against Ukraine; Moscow’s political system has proven resilient and even become stronger; and “America and its allies” must now switch to a strategy of “containment.”
https://www.rt.com/russia/587924-truth-about-russia-ukraine-conflict/
Zelensky flags new military conscription drive
Ukraine will announce new mobilization measures soon, the president has said.
Ukraine has been under pressure to make up the losses incurred in the four-month “counteroffensive” on the southern front, which Russia has estimated at over 90,000 men. The West has been pushing Zelensky to expand the conscription age to men aged 17-70 and mobilize more women, Russian intelligence said earlier this week. Kiev has neither confirmed nor denied these claims. Ukraine needs to realize some “unpleasant things,” she said, such as that the Russians “simply physically have more people” while Ukraine has a smaller army that “will not get larger” and fewer weapons.
https://www.rt.com/russia/587953-zelensky-ukraine-new-mobilization/
Russia’s economy growing three times faster than Eurozone – Guardian
GDP is forecast to expand 1.5% in 2024 against the euro area’s 0.5%.
Western sanctions have so far failed to halt Russia's economic growth, which is now projected to outpace that of the Eurozone, the Guardian reported on Thursday, citing investment firm Amundi. “It means that the United States, Europe, Japan, Australia – the major developed countries – are unable to sanction a country effectively... We can deplore it, but it’s a reality,” Amundi CIO Vincent Mortier said at a news conference in Paris.
https://www.rt.com/business/587897-russia-economy-growth-sanctions/
Sanctions against Russia ‘impoverishing EU’ – French MEP
Thierry Mariani said restrictions against Moscow had backfired on the countries that imposed them. In an interview aired on Saturday, Mariani said sanctions had been intended to “ruin” the Russian economy, but “on the contrary, they impoverish us.”
https://www.rt.com/news/587780-mariani-russia-sanctions-impoverish-europe/
Jimbuna
11-25-23, 07:59 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I7hc5rgdUa4
Skybird
11-25-23, 08:40 AM
[Focus] Few places on the front line of the war in Ukraine are currently in the spotlight as much as Avdiivka. The town, near the Russian-controlled Donbass capital of Donetsk, has been the scene of several Russian attacks in recent weeks and months. Military experts say the situation is critical for Ukraine.
Gustav Gressel of the European Council on Foreign Relations told the Welt am Sonntag newspaper: "Over the winter, the Ukrainians must keep Russian losses high and their own low in order to create breathing space for next spring." The problem in Avdiivka: the railway line. The further the Russians advance, the harder it will be for Ukraine to resupply.
And Austrian army commander Markus Reisner, who has been regularly assessing the war for months, says it is highly likely that Ukraine will lose the city: "Unless a miracle happens, such as a counterattack by the Ukrainian 47th mechanised brigade, Avdiivka will fall."
International observers such as the US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have confirmed the fierce fighting around Avdiivka. Russian troops are trying to encircle the Ukrainian defenders in the town. According to the British Ministry of Defence, the wet autumn weather is currently making the fighting difficult for both sides.
Jimbuna
11-25-23, 12:47 PM
I doubt winter can come too soon for either side.
I doubt winter can come too soon for either side.November 26-27
Heavy snowfall in Kyiv, Chernihiv, Cherkasy, Odesa regions;
in Sumy, Poltava, Kirovohrad, Mykolaiv regions – sleet and rain, sometimes ice;
in Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia regions and Crimea there will be significant rains.
In the northern, central, southern regions and the Crimea, winds will increase to 17-22 m/s, in some places up to 25 m/s, in Odesa and Mykolaiv regions 25-30 m/s; in the western and eastern regions wind gusts of 15-20 m/s – Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center.
Jimbuna
11-25-23, 02:08 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SBmRH3r_438
[Focus] Few places on the front line of the war in Ukraine are currently in the spotlight as much as Avdiivka. The town, near the Russian-controlled Donbass capital of Donetsk, has been the scene of several Russian attacks in recent weeks and months. Military experts say the situation is critical for Ukraine.
Gustav Gressel of the European Council on Foreign Relations told the Welt am Sonntag newspaper: "Over the winter, the Ukrainians must keep Russian losses high and their own low in order to create breathing space for next spring." The problem in Avdiivka: the railway line. The further the Russians advance, the harder it will be for Ukraine to resupply.
And Austrian army commander Markus Reisner, who has been regularly assessing the war for months, says it is highly likely that Ukraine will lose the city: "Unless a miracle happens, such as a counterattack by the Ukrainian 47th mechanised brigade, Avdiivka will fall."
International observers such as the US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have confirmed the fierce fighting around Avdiivka. Russian troops are trying to encircle the Ukrainian defenders in the town. According to the British Ministry of Defence, the wet autumn weather is currently making the fighting difficult for both sides.Russian forces began a renewed offensive effort towards Avdiivka on November 22, although likely with weaker mechanised capabilities than in the previous offensive waves that occurred in October. Russian forces did not make any territorial claims consistent with a successful renewed large-scale Russian offensive push. After Bakhmut Russian forces are not capable of this kinda offensive they still attack in armoured columns on open fields/roads easy target for drones and artillery after heavy losses they now use waves of infantry without support this will be a battle like Bakhmut I so hope they focus on this to capture Avdiivka. This will only weaken their position, the more Russia losing here they can not use in the coming months and degrease their offensive capability, the sooner they need to call for another unpopular mobilisation round.
Avdiivka is unlike Bakhmut, right there's not going to be one major key roadway that allows them to resupply forces that if Russia can cut it off all of it will fall. Avdiivka just has a whole wider number of roads criss-crossing through Ukrainian held territory, and Russia has a lot of more work to do in order to sever these roads from the Ukrainian defence. The battle for Avdiivka will be harder for Russia than the battle for Bakmut was.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p2HmW_ZLZD4
Jimbuna
11-26-23, 05:10 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hp1SR2xdKaA
Jimbuna
11-26-23, 06:21 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GweseUwCqtQ
Jimbuna
11-27-23, 06:30 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vkjwa3hNrhM
Jimbuna
11-27-23, 08:08 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g06TI0oJe1k
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WAmapFtQvXs
Jimbuna
11-27-23, 02:36 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PMJJsC1RfrY
Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine – 27 November 2023:
Throughout November 2023, Russian casualties, as reported by the Ukrainian General Staff, are running at a daily average of 931 per day.
Previously, the deadliest reported month for Russia was March 2023 with an average of 776 losses per day, at the height of Russia’s assault on Bakhmut.
Although Defence Intelligence cannot verify the methodology, taken as a total including both killed and wounded, the figures are plausible.
The last six weeks have likely seen some of the highest Russian casualty rates of the war so far. The heavy losses have largely been caused by Russia’s offensive against the Donbas town of Avdiivka.
https://i.postimg.cc/MZnmtfyM/F-7b-A59-XAAE0-Wm-X.jpg
Skybird
11-27-23, 03:51 PM
"It is a merciless situation for the Ukrainians on the Dnipro. You are exposed to this wet and cold weather almost unprotected", says Col,. Reisner. Its not better north of Tokmak where the Ukrainians ended up bogged down in no mans land in the open, instead of building winter quarters in Tokmak as intended. At the same time Russia uses swarms of cheap Iranian drones to figure out air defence patterns and forcing Ukrian to deplete its ammunition, and only then striking with cruise missiles hard. I would assume the Ukrainian air defence is forced to mostly chase phantoms and shadows. Which costs ammo. Reisner says they catch 80-90%, a very very good value. But still, its mostly Iranian drones only, not cruise missiles that do the real blow-delivery.
https://www-n--tv-de.translate.goog/politik/Es-ist-eine-unbarmherzige-Lage-fuer-die-Ukrainer-am-Dnipro-article24559752.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp
China has refused to invest in Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline and demanded more gas discounts, The South China Morning Post writes. China is unwilling to invest in the new pipeline, offering Russia to pay the multibillion-dollar construction bill in full and demanding discounts on Russian gas, The South China Morning Post reported, citing a source familiar with the situation in Moscow.
Next year, the discount for China will increase to 46%, according to the government's drafts: gas from the Power of Siberia will cost $271.6 per thousand cubic meters, and for Turkey and Europe - $481.7. But that's not enough for China. It "can demand deep discounts," the source says. "In terms of construction, [Beijing] wants to make sure that they have no risks and no costs. Russia is the side that foots the entire bill," says the source. Whether Gazprom will find money for the new megaproject remains unclear. After cutting off gas to European countries, the company made a trillion-ruble net loss for the year and faced cash gaps that it had to spend two-thirds of its cash reserves to cover. Of the 2 trillion ruble "cash pile" that Gazprom had before the war, about 700 billion (~$5.56 billion) remained by July 2023.
Even so, Putin hardly has a choice. The Russian president is "under enormous pressure" because if the pipe is not built, Russia will have nowhere to dump "a huge volume" of gas, says the SCMP source. After losing the European market, where more than 150 billion cubic meters of gas a year went at its peak before the war, Gazprom has been forced to cut production by a quarter – a record in its history. Source: https://www.scmp.com/economy/global-economy/article/3242612/china-wielding-bargaining-power-russia-over-power-siberia-2-natural-gas-pipeline
Jimbuna
11-28-23, 06:52 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XQ4DooVD8i0
Jimbuna
11-28-23, 07:24 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g_5cOtkGknQ
Jimbuna
11-29-23, 07:20 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WX3GRDg1N_A
Jimbuna
11-29-23, 08:20 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=53hxjUtpee8
Skybird
11-29-23, 11:20 AM
https://www.nzz.ch/international/ukraine-russland-erzielt-mit-kamikaze-drohnen-fatale-wirkung-ld.1767945?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp
(...)
An example of Russia's ability to innovate is the Lancet kamikaze drones. Unlike the Shahed long-range drones imported from Iran, which Russia uses to attack the Ukrainian energy infrastructure, the Lancet is a Russian development. Moscow has already used hundreds of them this year, inflicting heavy losses on the Ukrainian military. Recently, Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Valery Salushni even highlighted the Lancet drones as a problem in a policy article.
(...)
The brilliance of this Russian development lies not least in its simplicity. According to Russian information, the production of the Lancet drones - the word corresponds to the German "lancet", a lancing device for medical use - only costs three million rubles or the equivalent of 30,000 francs. If it succeeds in destroying Western military equipment worth hundreds of thousands or even millions of dollars, the track record is clear.
The Lanzet-3 model, which is widely used and is easily recognizable by its two x-shaped pairs of wings, was first presented at an arms trade fair in 2019, but was only used in large numbers this year. It weighs only 12 kilograms and can carry a 3 to 5 kilogram warhead. With its electric motor, the drone has a range of 40 kilometers and a maximum speed of 300 kilometers per hour when diving towards the target. At its tip it has optical sensors that are used for navigation and target detection. Analysis of debris has shown that this Russian product contains many Western components, including microchips from Switzerland.
Jimbuna
11-29-23, 01:09 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cCHkigSHHyE
Jimbuna
11-30-23, 07:17 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Eq_jV8egZxg
Jimbuna
11-30-23, 08:21 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lJ1c-Ynk0uo
Where have I heard this before ?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RiZQjDi6okg&ab_channel=CombatVeteranReacts
Markus
Where have I heard this before ?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RiZQjDi6okg&ab_channel=CombatVeteranReacts
Markus
The nazis would be one place.
My German Grandmother got the "Cross of Honor of the German Mother" in Silver for having 7 kids. Luckily none of them were old enough to get drafted and sent to the eastern front like their father and uncles.
Skybird
11-30-23, 02:38 PM
Where have I heard this before ?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RiZQjDi6okg&ab_channel=CombatVeteranReacts
Markus
Turkey, Erdoghan, Islam in general. And probably a long line of more, other wannabe conquerors and world rulers. Even the Romans at some part of their history, when a man staying solo and not founding families was put under penalty.
https://apnews.com/article/russia-putin-speech-ukraine-world-order-747d4cb0b899cf5c76f2f5ae80df376c
“We are defending the security and well-being of our people, the highest, historical right to be Russia — a strong, independent power, a country-civilization,” Putin said, accusing the U.S. and its allies of trying to “dismember and plunder” Russia.
Markus
Jimbuna
12-01-23, 05:51 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eSoEnad2up0
https://apnews.com/article/russia-putin-speech-ukraine-world-order-747d4cb0b899cf5c76f2f5ae80df376c
“We are defending the security and well-being of our people, the highest, historical right to be Russia — a strong, independent power, a country-civilization,” Putin said, accusing the U.S. and its allies of trying to “dismember and plunder” Russia.Markus
Sounds like He's going to cry!! :D
Jimbuna
12-01-23, 06:57 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BA2AN9wgMUk
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RaNFr7XmfLo
Exocet25fr
12-01-23, 09:29 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Skcr9K33oRc
Jimbuna
12-01-23, 09:40 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=50yVerirtrM
Jimbuna
12-01-23, 10:08 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=78C4r8kghKM
Catfish
12-01-23, 04:03 PM
Now Putin's spent billions & billions on propaganda trying to convince Russians his invasion is going well.
https://twitter.com/GlasnostGone/status/1730588265265103263?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5 Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1730588265265103263%7Ctwgr% 5E087dc8a74ea4f379d28ac95b5fc05c36ced5aa7e%7Ctwcon %5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fs9e.github.io%2Fiframe%2Ftwi tter.min.html1730588265265103263
If Ukraine can hit and disturb the Russian supply line it would mean a lot.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mpk_j2HJTa0&ab_channel=UkraineMatters
Markus
Commander Wallace
12-01-23, 10:24 PM
The New Voice of Ukraine (https://english.nv.ua/)
In bloodiest and costliest month yet for Russia, over 28,000 invaders killed in November
The New Voice of Ukraine
Fri, December 1, 2023 at 12:58 PM EST
The Ukrainian military eliminated 28,550 Russian invaders (https://english.nv.ua/nation/countless-russian-losses-in-avdiyivka-compiled-in-single-video-50360678.html) in November 2023, the First Deputy Defense Minister, Oleksandr Pavlyuk, said (https://t.me/Pavliuk_KSV/5182) on Dec. 1.
Read also: Russian forces face severe losses in last six weeks – UK intelligence (https://english.nv.ua/nation/uk-ministry-of-defense-confirms-36-000-russian-military-personnel-lost-in-six-weeks-50371608.html)
During this period, the Defense Forces successfully neutralized 3,090 units of armament and military equipment belonging to the Russian army, including:
341 tanks
538 combat armored vehicles
681 artillery systems
66 MLRS (Multiple Launch Rocket Systems)
39 anti-aircraft missile systems
2 ships
775 units of automotive equipment
118 units of special vehicles
Ukraine’s Defense Forces also managed to down two aircraft, as well as 509 drones, and 20 enemy missiles during the month.
Read also: Russian losses creep up by another 800 men and five tanks, reports Ukrainian military (https://english.nv.ua/nation/800-russian-soldiers-killed-in-ukraine-over-past-day-says-ukraine-military-50367859.html)
As of Dec. 1, since the beginning of the full-scale invasion into Ukraine, Russia has lost approximately 330,000 military personnel, with 1,280 individuals lost in the last 24 hours, the General Staff of the Ukraine’s Armed Forces reported.
Russia’s casualties in the war against Ukraine in terms of personnel exceed 300,000, stated NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg (https://search.yahoo.com/search?p=Jens%20Stoltenberg).
Read also: Over 300k Russian soldiers eliminated in Ukraine since Feb. 2022 (https://english.nv.ua/nation/enemy-losses-reach-300-000-milestone-mark-with-870-russian-military-personnel-killed-in-the-past-day-50364560.html)
UK intelligence says that over the past six weeks, the losses of Russian occupiers have likely been the highest since the start of the full-scale invasion into Ukraine.
Read the original article on The New Voice of Ukraine (https://english.nv.ua/nation/ukraine-forces-crush-28-550-russian-invaders-in-november-alone-pavlyuk-50373051.html)
https://www.yahoo.com/news/bloodiest-costliest-month-yet-russia-175800210.html
https://apnews.com/article/russia-putin-speech-ukraine-world-order-747d4cb0b899cf5c76f2f5ae80df376c
Markus
Didn't Russia dis-member itself back in the early 1900's and in 1991?
:hmmm:
Exocet25fr
12-02-23, 04:48 AM
THE ECONOMIST
Putin seems to be winning the war in Ukraine—for now
His biggest asset is Europe’s lack of strategic vision!
https://www.economist.com/leaders/2023/11/30/putin-seems-to-be-winning-the-war-in-ukraine-for-now
US-centric world ending – Kremlin
China and other growing economies are catching up, Dmitry Peskov says
https://www.rt.com/news/588378-us-china-sanctions-kremlin/
Ukraine has lost up to 300,000 soldiers – ex-Zelensky aide
Kiev’s refusal to negotiate with Moscow has only caused the country heavy battlefield casualties, Aleksey Arestovich says
https://www.rt.com/russia/588358-ukraine-losses-zelensky-aide/
Russia reveals new size of army
Citing the NATO build-up, Moscow has increased the size of its active service to 1.3 million
https://www.rt.com/russia/588359-putin-expands-army-size/
Jimbuna
12-02-23, 05:13 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sojJR_9C4_A
Skybird
12-02-23, 07:03 AM
It is already history, but still interesting. Hats off to the two Russian whistleblowers, who have now been given German citizenship and personal protection, but still have to fear for their lives.
https://www-focus-de.translate.goog/finanzen/news/energienotstand-drohte-putins-geheimer-gazprom-plan-wie-zwei-whistleblower-deutschland-vor-der-gaskrise-retteten_id_256924683.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp
Jimbuna
12-02-23, 10:45 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KP3D5NZhwak
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S8QrUN2zwx8
Rheinmetall aims to start production of armored vehicles in Ukraine in 2024
German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall plans to build the first armored vehicles on-site in Ukraine from the summer of 2024, CEO Armin Papperger said in an interview with German business magazine WirtschaftsWoche on Dec. 2. The first Fuchs armored personnel carriers could be produced in Ukraine by late summer 2024, about six to seven months after signing the relevant contract, Papperger said.
The first Lynx armored fighting vehicles could be built in Ukraine by 2025, or "12 to 13 months" after signing the contract, according to the CEO. The first 10 Lynx vehicles are currently being manufactured in German and Hungarian plants, but "after a ramp-up phase, we should then quickly be in a position to produce a significant number of these vehicles entirely in Ukraine."
Papperger told WirtschaftsWoche that he is not concerned about the security of factories in Ukraine, as Rheinmetall will be "renting existing plants, converting them and then operating them," and "they seem to be quite well protected." Armored vehicles produced abroad are already being repaired and maintained in Ukraine, Paperger said, since "skilled workers from Ukraine have been trained in Germany for this purpose."
Papperger first announced plans for Rheinmetall to produce Fuchs armored personnel carriers in Ukraine in May 2023. Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal announced on Oct. 24 that Rheinmetall will join forces with Ukraine's state-owned defense company Ukroboronprom to repair and maintain Western-produced military vehicles and ultimately produce them domestically in Ukraine... https://kyivindependent.com/rheinmetall-aims-to-start-production-of-armored-vehicles-in-ukraine-in-2024/
Jimbuna
12-03-23, 07:24 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3a6XnNit2mE
Jimbuna
12-03-23, 08:03 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KbaQ8uzwjBI
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MP0BN6QXIRU
Jimbuna
12-03-23, 12:40 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7WpZ6WqTk-E
Skybird
12-03-23, 03:33 PM
[Focus] Kiev's mayor Vitali Klitschko has accused Ukrainian President Volodymyr Selensky of "mistakes" with unusual clarity. "People are wondering why we weren't better prepared for this war. Why Zelenskyi denied until the end that it would come to this," Klitschko told the Swiss news portal "20 Minuten". "There was too much information that did not match reality," said the former world boxing champion, who called for more honesty with regard to Ukraine's true situation in its fight against Russia's war of aggression. "Selensky is paying for the mistakes he made," said Klitschko.
"Of course we can euphorically lie to our people and our partners. But you can't do that forever," Klitschko continued in the interview, which was picked up by several Ukrainian and Russian media outlets on Sunday. The 52-year-old also demonstratively sided with the Ukrainian commander-in-chief of the armed forces, Valery Salushnyi, who had recently spoken of a stalemate in the war, much to Zelenskyi's annoyance.
Ukraine was at an impasse, Salushnyj had declared. "He told the truth," said Klitschko. "Sometimes people don't want to hear the truth. But ultimately he is responsible. He has explained and justified what the situation is today."
At the same time, Klitschko warned against playing political games in the country, which has been fighting for its independence for almost two years. There should be no trench warfare "in a country whose very existence is shaky". That is why, according to his own statements, he is still not talking about his own political plans and at the same time assured Selensky of his support - until the end of the war. "The president has an important function today and we must support him until the end of the war. But at the end of this war, every politician will pay for his successes or failures."
In the interview, Klitschko also thanked Germany for the delivery of air defence systems, but criticized the country for not also giving Ukraine the long-range Taurus cruise missiles. Berlin is taking refuge in "excuses" here - "our partners are far too cautious and evasive," said the mayor.
Skybird
12-03-23, 03:44 PM
No end to self-deception in the West. Colonel Reisner from the Austrian Bundesheer, in an interview today with German ARD Tagesschau (first state TV channel's main news progam):
https://www-tagesschau-de.translate.goog/ausland/europa/ukraine-krieg-interview-100.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp
(...)
ARD: But the West has supplied a lot in the past, continues to supply and support. Is more support even possible?
Reisner: With the existing arms production, we won't be able to supply what we really need. More effort is needed. And I don't want to use the word "war economy" here, but it will require more in-depth efforts.
From a neutral point of view, the situation is serious. The West must understand that. Is it prepared to support Ukraine? Then it must do more. If it is not prepared to do so, then it must communicate that. This miserable purgatory currently only brings more deaths, but no results.
ARD: About a year ago, you criticized the arms deliveries as being "too much to die, too little to live".
Reisner: I actually said that relatively soon after the war began. When it was clear that the Russians were beginning to recover from the shock of failure at the beginning. Even then you could see that all the preconditions for a war of attrition were being created. You can't fight a war of attrition on the side, you have to go "all in".
Think of the HIMARS system. Instead of the required 100 to 150 units, 38 have been delivered to date. Combat aircraft could also have been delivered earlier. In the case of the ATACMs, the oldest version is delivered in small numbers. More can be done, but there is a fear of escalation.
Now the West is coming to the sobering realization that it has to dig deeper into its pockets. But nobody dares to communicate this message to their populations at the moment because they are afraid of encouraging radicals.
ARD: The EU repeatedly emphasizes that it will stand by Ukraine for as long as necessary and support it in restoring the internationally recognized state borders of 1991, i.e. including Crimea and Donbass.
Reisner: Then you also have to do what is necessary. Despite eleven sets of sanctions, the Russian war industry is increasingly able to adapt. And Russia is not isolated, but has enough support from the Global South to be able to wage this war for longer.
(...)
ARD: How do you think this slaughter can be ended? Russia doesn't want to negotiate - on the contrary ...
Reisner: It's a dilemma. There are many parallels with the situation in Korea. The Korean War was very dynamic at the beginning and then a stalemate developed. It then took two years and 473 days of negotiations to define an 18-page document that established an armistice that is still in force today. Both countries are still in a state of war.
But that would mean that Ukraine will no longer exist within its borders as we know them. And the dilemma is that Russia will be even less willing to negotiate as soon as it realises that the West is on its knees.
ARD: And what should the states of the European Union do now?
Reisner: The good times will probably be over for the time being. And we have to think about how to shape these new times. If we come to the conclusion that we are not prepared to provide Ukraine with the support it needs, then I believe we need to communicate this and possibly start negotiations.
But then Russia will have us exactly where it wants us, and Russia will continue to do what it wants. And that is the destruction of Ukraine.
(...)
-------------------
I stand by what I have implied in many of my comments since months and months: at the rate the war is going currently, and has been going for months, Ukraine will lose it and Russia will win it. I will stick to this assessment unless there is a profound and highly dramatic change in the West's approach to the situation. Which I am not convinced will ever happen. The West is a post-heroic society, as they now call it. It simply does not understand anymore how wars are fought and possibly won: before anything with utmost needed brutality and determination. We are too civilized. Russia accepts and can afford to accept its high losses. By these it buys its military successes. And that is what in the West simply is not understood, becausu by our softy rationals if we were in the seat of the Russians we already would have given up the war to avoid these high losses of ours.
What Ukraine needs now is not the West, but Gandalf and his magic tricks. What I mean by this? That the war is probbaly already decided - all what happens now is answering the question how much more time we need to admit to ourselves that we already have given it up. And that is certainly no compliment to ourselves.
Middle East and Far Est allies of the US will make their conclusions from this. They will not amuse us either.
Rockstar
12-04-23, 05:34 AM
From the meaningless slogans “stand with Ukraine” to “as long it takes”. To this: “Situation for Ukraine could get worse if West does not increase arms supplies” - Stoltenberg
According to the NATO secretary-general, Ukraine is in a "critical situation" and it is necessary to "prepare for bad news".
Jimbuna
12-04-23, 05:44 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qMliBgi77aM
Jimbuna
12-04-23, 06:23 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tyihvbxZCGw
Skybird
12-04-23, 06:28 AM
From the meaningless slogans “stand with Ukraine” to “as long it takes”. To this: “Situation for Ukraine could get worse if West does not increase arms supplies” - Stoltenberg
According to the NATO secretary-general, Ukraine is in a "critical situation" and it is necessary to "prepare for bad news".
These quotes by an Ukrainian soldier are most revealing:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67565508
It was madness from all beginning on to rule out long reaching weapons - to not disrupt logistical flow in the Russians' Hinterland, hundreds of kilometers deep into Russia - how can you hope to overcome an enemy of this size then...? It is madness to assume you can win a war by not striking the enemy as hard as possible but instead save him and call that at home "avoiding escalation". I said from early on in this war that my most likely scenario is that neither Paris nor Berlin wish a victorious Ukraine because that would come at their own power's loss in Europe, and that the whole western support likely is just alibi, enough of this alibi to say "look, we did what we could, but the Russians were too tough". And America is boiling its frog, as wanted, and it does it slow and long and nicely but - it boils it not in water, but in Ukrainian blood and at the cost of Ukraine's destruction.
I do not even rule out anymore that there were secret talks with the Russians where they set red lines which no side passes and that are technically designed - by Russia - to secure victory in the long perspective while "agreeing" to a certain ammount of own high losses due to Western support, but not more support than that. That way both sides "save their faces". Power politics.
The EU's role? To appease Kyiv and make them play ball in their territorial self-mutilation by holding a carrot on a long stick and making candy-sweet promises for a distant future.
It all degenerated into cynism in action. Truth is: nobody in the West wants Ukraine to win, the shift of power and influence inside the EU to the East would be too big. Best would be to extend the war and have both unwanted Ukraine and hostile Russia beeing at each other's throats for as long as possible, being distracted that way.
Add to this that there is a deep-rooting mistrust in Zelensky in special, and (corrupt) Kyiv in general.
And another truth is that Russia has overestimated itself and its "cause" early on, - but learned and still learns, and adapted much better than the West. The West however still underestimates the Russians. Its unbelievable - they just take these high losses - which by man power and economy size, compared to Ukraine's, they can afford - and they just do not move, they just shake these losses off, and we still underestimate them. We are still making light of the situation.
Think we have our heads as deep inside our rear ends as our necks are long.
Skybird
12-04-23, 06:51 AM
Matching news from a different topic: global arms sales decline, due to production problems of US manufacturers.
https://www.dw.com/en/global-arms-sales-decline-despite-surge-in-wars-conflicts/a-67607430
Add to this that Chinese navy assets by number surpass America's. Chioan builds more of everything. America's forces run low on personnel, especially many specialists move to private business due to better payment. Combat pilots on mind especially, pilots in general. The gap in submarine numbers is projected to widen. Even if the Navy would build more could build more boats (Chinese capacity is much bigger to do so now), it would have problems to crew them (I read). Luxury problems :O: In the German Marine submarine skippers stand in long line to get their own sub command for a short while (I read).
If Ukraine lose the war, you could say they lost it in the west and not on the battlefield.
The war isn't over yet. Ukraine can fight for an another year or so. The west has to come to it senses-Either we let Russia win the war or we increase massively our military support to Ukraine.
I sincerely hope the amount of supply from the west will increase next year.
The sentence -"We are with you all the way" sounds hollow if it isn't followed up by massive military aid.
The only backfire in all this, is the number of Ukrainian soldiers. When Russia losses 10.000 it's nothing but statistic, when Ukraine lose 10.000 it is a disaster.
Markus
Skybird
12-04-23, 06:56 AM
If Ukraine lose the war, you could say they lost it in the west and not on the battlefield.
I would say they got actively prevented from winning it.
I sincerely hope the amount of supply from the west will increase next year.
Where is the fundamental increase in production capacity that is precondition for that? Or do you think a factory producing Fuchs light APCs from second half 2024 on will make a difference? Of 1 million artillery rounds the EU promised Kyiv by the end of this year, not more than one third - at best - actually has been delivered . And 1 million shells was a low number considering the speed by which they get consumed in this war.
The precondition for suporting, is priouction. And production does not get significantly raised in Europe.
Denial of war reality.
Skybird
12-04-23, 07:05 AM
And there is another worrying perspective. By the end of this runnign war, we will have a Europe that still acts lull and dull in peacetime mode - with the Russian economy then producing in full war time production mode. They then will be ready for more of the same - while we have not improved one bit, just bend our heads deep backwards for years and explored the inside of our guts. Russia is an economy, hardship and short supply is being dealt easier with. And most Russians now believe that the whole West is up against them. Most Russians believe the Kremlin's narrative.
Exocet25fr
12-04-23, 08:17 AM
Russia is starting to make its superiority in electronic warfare count
There may not be much the West either can or will do to help Ukraine
Electronic warfare system.
https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/11/23/russia-is-starting-to-make-its-superiority-in-electronic-warfare-count
White House warns it is running out of money to help Ukraine fight its war with Russia
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/dec/04/russia-ukraine-war-live-latest-updates-volodymyr-zelenskiy-vladimir-putin
NATO should be ready for ‘bad news’ from Ukraine, Stoltenberg warns
‘We have to support Ukraine in both good and bad times,’ NATO chief says in ARD interview.
https://www.politico.eu/article/nato-boss-jens-stoltenberg-warns-of-bad-news-from-ukraine/
'The fate of the war in Ukraine rests with the Europeans, but they are less determined than Russia'
https://www.lemonde.fr/en/opinion/article/2023/11/30/the-fate-of-the-war-in-ukraine-rests-with-the-europeans-but-they-are-less-determined-than-russia_6302041_23.html
Ukraine war: Soldier tells BBC of front-line 'hell'
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67565508
Russia-Ukraine war: no reason for Russia to change goals, says Lavrov – as it happened. Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov says Moscow sees no signs to alter its ‘special military operation’
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/dec/01/russia-ukraine-war-live-ukraine-military-shot-down-18-of-25-drones-launched-by-russian-in-overnight-strike?filterKeyEvents=false&page=with%3Ablock-6569c69f8f0856ef8db6ee0b
US hawk warns of Russian ‘diplomatic offensive’ on Ukraine
Washington must act fast or Kiev will lose, John Bolton claims
https://www.rt.com/news/588477-bolton-graham-ukraine-aid/
Growing number of Ukrainians want peace talks – poll
Nearly half of those surveyed said they are ready for compromise in negotiations with Russia
https://www.rt.com/russia/588474-ukrainians-divided-peace-poll/
Internal EU rows threaten Ukraine’s $54 billion – FT
Compromise within the bloc is reportedly being hampered by the rise of far-right parties in Europe and the financial crisis in Germany
https://www.rt.com/news/588471-eu-allocation-ukraine-at-risk/
Pentagon chief revealed ‘military secret’ – ex-Russian president
Lloyd Austin has admitted the true goal of Ukraine support is the modernization of the US’ military industry, Dmitry Medvedev says
and it has nothing to do with defending “democracy” or even battling Russia, but boils down to the modernization of the US military-industrial complex, ex-Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has said.
https://www.rt.com/russia/588432-lloyd-austin-military-secret/
Skybird
12-04-23, 08:31 AM
Drone warfare in financial numbers. If you attack with an Iranian drone coistign 20,000 coins and the enemy shoots it down with a missile ciosting 450,000 coins, then the defender will sooner or later run into financial problems.
https://www-telepolis-de.translate.goog/features/Drohnen-Supermacht-Iran-Sanktionen-zeigen-nur-sehr-eingeschraenkte-Wirkung-9547444.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp
The Shahid-131/136 primarily serves the purpose of continuously tying up the Ukrainian air defense and depleting the available anti-aircraft ammunition potential. Their pre-staggered deployment often enables the targeted use of cruise missiles.And this. Its never a good sign if in war the political leadership and the military leadership start to split and create a growing divide. Zalushnyi is probably the best strategist they have. To damage him is not the most clever move by Zelesnkji. In fact Zelenskji has made mistakes from beginning on, starting with his denial of a Russain invasion being imminent and thus preventing a mobilization early. His value is not his strategic or military competence but his propaganda weight by which he was able to drum for Western support so far. But by the scale he grows unsuccessful in doing that, his name is up for grabs, because his military competence is practically non-existent. There is also a deep divide between Zelenskyi and the influential mayor of Kyiv, Vladimir Klitschko:
[N-TV] The Ukrainian president should bypass the supreme commander of the armed forces, Valeriy Zalushny. This is reported by Ukrainska Pravda, citing anonymous sources. Zelensky would maintain "parallel lines of communication" with the heads of some military departments instead of communicating with Saluzhny, it is said. These included the commander of the ground forces, Oleksandr Syrskyi and the commander of the air force, Mykola Oleschuk. "There is the impression that Zelensky has divided the armed forces into two groups: the 'good' one, commanded by Syrskyi and others, and the 'bad' one, which reports to Salushnyi," a person from Salushnyi's inner circle told the "Ukrainska Pravda". This would demotivate the commander in chief and prevent him from commanding the entire military.
-----------------
The Ukrainian united front is showing deepening cracks. So does the EU's "unity".
Came to think of Skybirds comments when watched this video clip
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S3mh0Cr9S24&ab_channel=CombatVeteranReacts
Markus
Skybird
12-04-23, 11:42 AM
^ The problem is what Reisner said, I quoted him just a few posts above: when we now quit, Russia has us where it wanted us and so will continue with what it already is doing: destroying Ukraine further.
Damned if you quit and damned if you don't. We have screwed it up royally.
I see no good way out.
And trhe cream on top of the cake: this outcome was unneeded. It could have been prevented. We could have seen it early, and change the outcome. But we did not want to accept to us what your eyes were telling us. Ukraine has all reason to be very bitter at us.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gzr3x8-pg1I
Rheinmetall receives contract for "tens of thousands" of 155-mm shells for Ukraine
The German arms concern Rheinmetall won a large order for 155-mm artillery ammunition for Ukraine; the customer is an unnamed NATO country.
Source: European Pravda with reference to the company's press service
Details: The order, worth about 142 million euros, involves the production of "tens of thousands" of combat-ready 155-mm shells. They will be produced by the concern’s recently acquired subsidiary Expal (Rheinmetall Expal Munitions) in Spain. The customer is reported to be a NATO country that has declared its long-term intentions to provide Ukraine with military support to combat Russian aggression.
Shells from this order will be delivered as early as 2025. In 2024, Ukraine will be able to receive about 40,000 shells from an older order for Rheinmetall. The concern also recalled that in mid-October 2023, it received an order from Germany for 150,000 155-mm ammunition for Ukraine, as well as additional high-explosive DM 121 projectiles. The concern also notes that in 2024, it plans to significantly increase its production capacity in Spain, Germany, South Africa and Australia, after which the annual production capacity will reach 700,000 ammunition... https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/12/4/7431607/
Jimbuna
12-04-23, 02:05 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GC8L6hP2nVE
Catfish
12-04-23, 03:17 PM
Drone warfare in financial numbers. If you attack with an Iranian drone coistign 20,000 coins and the enemy shoots it down with a missile ciosting 450,000 coins, then the defender will sooner or later run into financial problems. [...]
Quite right.
So the free world supporting Ukraine should cover Moscow in drone strikes, in swarms, daily.
Putin wants to escalate? Show him how it's done.
May I remind that the west has to realize, at the end of the day, that they cannot let Putin invade Ukraine and let him get away with it. There can only be one decisive answer. And it will suffice, even when it comes late.
Drone warfare in financial numbers. If you attack with an Iranian drone coistign 20,000 coins and the enemy shoots it down with a missile ciosting 450,000 coins, then the defender will sooner or later run into financial problems.Ukraine uses mobile fire groups against the Shahed-136 they pump a lot of lead into the air pickups with anti-aircraft guns (ZU-23-2), large-calibre machine guns, machine guns, and man-portable air defence systems (Ihla, Stinger) they accounted for about 40% of the downed drones it allows Ukraine to save anti-aircraft-guided missiles. Mobile fire groups are not only part of the Air Force, but also of all the Defence Forces, the Border Guards, the National Guard, and the Army. This is a necessary to shoot down the maximum number of Shahed before they fly up to larger air defence systems like NASAMS, Iris-T, etc. To destroy them with small arms so that Ukraine keeps a stockpile of anti-aircraft missiles to repel a cruise missile attack and deter Russian aircraft. Gepard is the best in this regard in terms of cost-effectiveness, but it also has a limited range of 4.5 kilometres to shoot down with ground-based projectiles. Therefore, Ukraine need more of them.
Dargo wrote:
"Gepard is the best in this regard in terms of cost-effectiveness, but it also has a limited range of 4.5 kilometres to shoot down with ground-based projectiles. Therefore, Ukraine need more of them."
I think they are called SPAAG.
Markus
Dargo wrote:
"Gepard is the best in this regard in terms of cost-effectiveness, but it also has a limited range of 4.5 kilometres to shoot down with ground-based projectiles. Therefore, Ukraine need more of them."
I think they are called SPAAG.
MarkusSPAAG = Self Propelled Anti Aircraft Gun
The Flugabwehrkanonenpanzer Gepard ("anti-aircraft-gun tank 'Cheetah'", better known as the Flakpanzer Gepard) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flakpanzer_Gepard
Skybird
12-04-23, 05:25 PM
Shells from this order will be delivered as early as 2025.
So, that is 12-23 months away. Until then Ukrainians must throw stones. If the Russians do not get that it might be a good idea to attack that factory. They have taken out much of the former defence industry in Ukraine - why not this one, too? Until then Ukrainians must throw stones.
Also, producing "tens of thousands" of shells per year is not enough. There were phase sin this war when both sides fired tens of thousands of shells PER DAY. Russia fired up to 30,000.
The NYT reported in Septembre, a high ranking US defence politician told them Russia produced 100 tanks per year before the war. Now they do 200 per year, growing. From early next year on, Russia will produce 2 million artillery shells. And they still build new additonal production capacities for that. By the end of the year 2024 they could have the potential to produce 2.8-3 million per year.
The ammunition order set by the Bundeswehr youi mentioned. 150,000 shells. Since the order was placed hilariously late, the Germans had to line up at the end of the line. They will get the first shells in a couple of years. And finally - 150,000 rounds? WTF...?
No, all this is no sign for a substantial leanring and adaptation process. Its just alibi politics. How comes that Russia can adapot so mucn better than the economcially superior West - depsite the 11 sanction programs? How comes that Iran could become one of the globe's leading drone suppliers, although hitech imporets also are heavily sanctioned? And what does this tell us about the success of sanctions to prevent them from getting the bomb?
The time there may have been, was headlesslywasted, casrelessly thrown out of the window. By Zelensky ignroiugn the threat, but after the war started: by the West as well. Now the Russians are in a war prodction lead where we maybe can no longer catch up with them again. It was just in the nws the past couple fo days, american defence companies all have shrunk their output, they cannot keep up with the orders, the production capacity is not fit for the volume of orders. Means: neither the US (with its eyes also on China and Taiwan) nor Europe can produce in time the ammounts needed even if they would want to. If the will would be there, the capacity could be boosted, thouzgh not without problems. But until that boosting effort would pay off, 2-5 years would pass.
What does Ukraine until then...?
Time is Russia's best ally now. Also because the West very obviously becomes war-weary.
So, that is 12-23 months away. Until then Ukrainians must throw stones. If the Russians do not get that it might be a good idea to attack that factory. They have taken out much of the former defence industry in Ukraine - why not this one, too? Until then Ukrainians must throw stones.
Also, producing "tens of thousands" of shells per year is not enough. There were phase sin this war when both sides fired tens of thousands of shells PER DAY. Russia fired up to 30,000.
The NYT reported in Septembre, a high ranking US defence politician told them Russia produced 100 tanks per year before the war. Now they do 200 per year, growing. From early next year on, Russia will produce 2 million artillery shells. And they still build new additonal production capacities for that. By the end of the year 2024 they could have the potential to produce 2.8-3 million per year.
The ammunition order set by the Bundeswehr youi mentioned. 150,000 shells. Since the order was placed hilariously late, the Germans had to line up at the end of the line. They will get the first shells in a couple of years. And finally - 150,000 rounds? WTF...?
No, all this is no sign for a substantial leanring and adaptation process. Its just alibi politics. How comes that Russia can adapot so mucn better than the economcially superior West - depsite the 11 sanction programs? How comes that Iran could become one of the globe's leading drone suppliers, although hitech imporets also are heavily sanctioned? And what does this tell us about the success of sanctions to prevent them from getting the bomb?
The time there may have been, was headlesslywasted, casrelessly thrown out of the window. By Zelensky ignroiugn the threat, but after the war started: by the West as well. Now the Russians are in a war prodction lead where we maybe can no longer catch up with them again. It was just in the nws the past couple fo days, american defence companies all have shrunk their output, they cannot keep up with the orders, the production capacity is not fit for the volume of orders. Means: neither the US (with its eyes also on China and Taiwan) nor Europe can produce in time the ammounts needed even if they would want to. If the will would be there, the capacity could be boosted, thouzgh not without problems. But until that boosting effort would pay off, 2-5 years would pass.
What does Ukraine until then...?
Time is Russia's best ally now. Also because the West very obviously becomes war-weary.When we ourselves are at war there is different legislation. In times of war, the government may become directive to the private sector. Then vehicles can be requisitioned and you can prioritize resources. That is all covered in our legislation. In peacetime, it is more difficult that is certainly true of the new member states on the eastern flank, which left the Soviet Union. Those have written their constitutions so sharply that peacetime military personnel are not able to do the things they are allowed to do in wartime. They need a formal declaration of war, so to speak. There is more room in Western Europe, but there is not always the political will there to push through.
When it comes to stocks, in recent years we in the West have looked only at efficiency. Spending as little money as possible, just in time, just enough. Our whole liberal economy is based on that. That means you maximize your productive capacity, and in doing so, it becomes as cheap as possible. That's fine for cell phones and toilet paper, but it doesn't work in wartime for military equipment. What we need to do is get our economy into a kind of wartime economy. That is legally difficult. In some countries, governments own or partially own the defence industry. There the government can put more direct pressure. In the Netherlands and Germany, it is a discussion between government, industry and financiers to invest in production capacity. And that all takes far too long.
We are in day 646 of a three-day war and that alone shows what an incredible feat the Ukrainians have done, with a country much smaller than Russia. Ukraine will not collapse in three days, personally think that this war could go on for another 5 to 10 years.
We are in day 646 of a three-day war and that alone shows what an incredible feat the Ukrainians have done, with a country much smaller than Russia. Ukraine will not collapse in three days, personally think that this war could go on for another 5 to 10 years.
A thought
If Russia loses 800-1000 men each day how much time does they have on their side ?
Some have said Russia has time on their side. Maybe they have, but losing so many men each month must start to hurt or will.
I know I wrote earlier that when Russia lose 10.000 men it's statistic. However losing 24.000 to 30.000 men each month must sooner or later backfire.
That is West keeps on deliver military supply. And Ukraine can keep up with fresh boots on the ground.
Markus
Skybird
12-04-23, 07:08 PM
A thought
If Russia loses 800-1000 men each day how much time does they have on their side ?
Some have said Russia has time on their side. Maybe they have, but losing so many men each month must start to hurt or will.
It depends on how high Ukraine'S losses are in relation to that. Their manpower is not unlimited, in fact they have a serious recruiting problem already, much more serious than Russia's. And their current soldiers are often in service already since - well, since it all began. They must be worn out. Their best ones are all dead or wounded, are gone. Over the past three decades their total population shrunk from low 50 millions to low 40 millions, and further scores fled from Ukraine since the war began. The age limit has been constantly reset to higher ages. If Russisa would loose lets say five times as many men and material as Ukraine, than that might be unsustainable over time, probably. But I seriously doubt their losses compare like that. I expect something more in the range of 1.5:1 to 2:1. The battlefield is transparent now, Russia has the lead in electronic warfare and numbers of drones (they always were world leaders when it came to jamming). And this situation is not good enough, I would estimate. The ratio must be such that Russia's superior industrial and manpool capacity gets effectively depleted in relation to that of Ukraine, and this at a sufficient pace to achieve the effect that Russia cannot sustain the war anymore before Ukraine breaks down. And I do not see signs that this is the case. Instead it seems to be the other way around, despite the high Russian losses the war wears out Ukraine more than Russia. Time is on Russia's side. Western tiring is on Russia's side. US politics is on Russia's side. European indifference is on Russia'S side. Russia'W welath in resssporuces and its autarky in providing the daily needs of living for its population, its de facto autarky, is counting for Russia. Its ability to not get seriously handicapped by sanctions, is on Russia's side.
Thats a lot of strategic hard factors that are on Russia's side. Wanna win the war? Dangerously damage these variable and prevent them from being in Russia'S favour anymore. Give Ukraine the tools to do this - and in huge numbers. Until then, a blown up Russian tank or a won small firefight here or there, or a meadow more held by the end of the day, or a bunker busted, means little, means nothing.
--------------
More signs for cracks in the leadership.
https://www-fr-de.translate.goog/politik/ukraine-walerij-saluschnyj-der-held-der-ukraine-veraergert-selenskyj-interview-economist-92711521.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp
Jimbuna
12-05-23, 05:59 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=adXpPu347AM
Jimbuna
12-05-23, 06:03 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZpMj04P7i84
Skybird
12-05-23, 06:51 AM
^ I am not surprised one bit.
Havent some people said that Russia would be incapable to do this ^ ? :hmmm:
If Western production sleeps on, we will have serious, very, very serious problems for which there will be no remedy: because when they become obvious to even the blindest man in the room, we will no longer have a precious resource: time.
Si vis pacem para bellum. As long as there is still time left. You hear that, you deaf, blind, dumb Europe?
Note that the Russian Ruble buys so much more commodities in Russia and so much more factory labour in Russia than the dollar or Euro buys in Western contexts. Dont get fooled by their "small" defence budget", you have to scale it to its economic context. And then all of a sudden it is very HUGE.
Even if they reactivated many old tanks this year, accounting for the high numbers this year, they nevertheless have massively boosted the prodfuciton of brandnew tanks, namely T-90 which is now given a priority, and the upgraded T-80BVM. These teeth will be felt by Ukraine next year and thereafter, since Russia boosts its production capacity even further.
Jimbuna
12-05-23, 09:01 AM
I wouldn't trust a single word coming out if his mouth.
This is nothing more than a cynical attempt to split the western alliance.
Surprising claim by Putin: Wants to cooperate with Europe
Russian President Vladimir Putin has not turned away from the European nations and continues to clarify his position to them, demonstrating that it is more beneficial for them to emerge from under US dominance. This is at least what Putin wants to signal.
According to Ura News, Russia is ready for mutually beneficial cooperation and the restoration of relations with European states, he announced during the ceremony of presenting credentials by foreign ambassadors, with a particular focus on working with Germany.
Putin accepted credentials from 21 newly arrived foreign ambassadors in a traditional ceremony held in the Grand Kremlin Palace's Alexander Hall. In his welcoming speech, the president emphasized the current complex global situation and the turbulent state of the world. He pointed out that a new, fairer multipolar world order is replacing the old unipolar system.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/surprising-claim-by-putin-wants-to-cooperate-with-europe/ar-AA1l0VPR?ocid=msedgntp&pc=EDGEDSE&cvid=37b581081856400880dcb00c37ac6260&ei=19
Catfish
12-05-23, 12:24 PM
When Putin talks about cooperation with Europe it is clear he will attack at some point.
Aktungbby
12-05-23, 01:10 PM
...'twill be interesting to see if he is the Time's nominated "person of the year" yet again (since 2007)...but all of this global unipolar vs multipolar nonsense: global warming, WWII, pandemics etc. is really inconsequential; with civilization scheduled to end around 2040 anyway...:oops::shifty::roll::hmph::dead::yawn:
Not looking good at all
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MxCHLD7uBTE&ab_channel=CombatVeteranReacts
Markus
^ I am not surprised one bit.
Havent some people said that Russia would be incapable to do this ^ ? :hmmm:
If Western production sleeps on, we will have serious, very, very serious problems for which there will be no remedy: because when they become obvious to even the blindest man in the room, we will no longer have a precious resource: time.
Si vis pacem para bellum. As long as there is still time left. You hear that, you deaf, blind, dumb Europe?
Note that the Russian Ruble buys so much more commodities in Russia and so much more factory labour in Russia than the dollar or Euro buys in Western contexts. Dont get fooled by their "small" defence budget", you have to scale it to its economic context. And then all of a sudden it is very HUGE.
Even if they reactivated many old tanks this year, accounting for the high numbers this year, they nevertheless have massively boosted the prodfuciton of brandnew tanks, namely T-90 which is now given a priority, and the upgraded T-80BVM. These teeth will be felt by Ukraine next year and thereafter, since Russia boosts its production capacity even further.Russia release cherry-picked and fabricated data releases spewed out by the increasingly unreliable Kremlin agencies, falsely certifying Putin’s fable of triumph. There is no shortage of reasons why this factory releases should be treated as dubious when not verified against cross-channel checks and alternative benchmarks. Russia has a long history of manipulating official statistics to please its leaders, “bending over backward to correct bad numbers and burying unflattering statistics” under the pressure the Kremlin has exerted to corrupt statistical integrity. If they come to this 2000 bet you they will attack in column easy targets for Ukraine or end up in their own minefields (local commanders do not know where their own mines lay because the mine laying units are gone elsewhere not leaving location of minefields) if they can survive this they run into Ukraine defence lines good luck to them.
Jimbuna
12-05-23, 02:00 PM
When Putin talks about cooperation with Europe it is clear he will attack at some point.
Precisely :yep:
Skybird
12-05-23, 03:17 PM
Russia release cherry-picked and fabricated data releases spewed out by the increasingly unreliable Kremlin agencies, falsely certifying Putin’s fable of triumph. There is no shortage of reasons why this factory releases should be treated as dubious when not verified against cross-channel checks and alternative benchmarks. Russia has a long history of manipulating official statistics to please its leaders, “bending over backward to correct bad numbers and burying unflattering statistics” under the pressure the Kremlin has exerted to corrupt statistical integrity. If they come to this 2000 bet you they will attack in column easy targets for Ukraine or end up in their own minefields (local commanders do not know where their own mines lay because the mine laying units are gone elsewhere not leaving location of minefields) if they can survive this they run into Ukraine defence lines good luck to them.
I wonder whether I will ever see the day when you will stop to underestimate the Russians!? :03: :O:
Catfish
12-05-23, 03:20 PM
I wonder whether I will ever see the day when you will stop to underestimate the Russians!? :03: :O:
When they take Berlin. Again :O:
Only time will tell, if Skybird is correct or if Dargo is correct in their statement about Russian possibility to mass produce tanks and other war material in good quality.
On the battlefield they seems to run into some massive slapping
(Ukrainian is taking some slapping too)
Markus
I wonder whether I will ever see the day when you will stop to underestimate the Russians!? :03: :O:When the second-strongest military of the World is degraded by number 15 to the second best in Ukraine, I can not comply to your request.
Russian soldiers get dropped off by BMPs around 300 to 600 meters from Ukrainians, depending on how daring the driver is, and then straight away the BMP leaves without giving any fire support maybe three of them try and run straight back and follow the BMP another two, on average, might get in some ditch and not move again until it's over, and those which actually have some balls will go for the assault, but they don’t make it far. For its economy, Russia is in majority depended (build up) by/on the west investments if a turbine in their gas system goes fubar they only can fix it with the help and material of the west same goes for the oil we run these systems for years. What else is to expect from kleptocrats, a country led by organized crime can only be going to hell with Putin at the wheel.
Skybird
12-05-23, 04:23 PM
All nice and well. And still Russia has Ukraine by it's balls and throat, slowly strangling it.
Not the other way around.
The West does not do what could and must be done to change this.
One of you said on several occasions that Putin wouldn't initiate a general mobilization
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9BsS4i86SkA&ab_channel=TimesRadio
Markus
Skybird
12-06-23, 05:26 AM
No, things are absolutely not going well for Ukraine, especially in the US.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-67585902
Ukraine cannot win against the will of the US, nor without the will of the US.
Skybird
12-06-23, 07:36 AM
Zelenskyi and his seven enemies.
https://www-focus-de.translate.goog/politik/ausland/ukraine-krise/gastbeitrag-von-gabor-steingart-scholz-trump-putin-7-gegner-stehen-selenskyj-und-seinen-kriegszielen-im-weg_id_259397142.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp
Jimbuna
12-06-23, 07:58 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cedN_OXYnbg
Jimbuna
12-06-23, 08:49 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lJZC3eDPtD8
Skybird
12-06-23, 08:58 AM
The confrontation between Zelenskyi and Zalushnyi boils on - and not on just a small flame anymore.
https://www-focus-de.translate.goog/politik/ausland/ukraine-krise/streit-in-der-ukraine-vergrault-selenskyj-jetzt-den-mann-der-im-westen-als-mastermind-gilt_id_258266928.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp
The problem is that Zelenskyi now is in a position where he has nothing but illusions to sell anymore - both to the Western donators, and his own people. Zalushnyi imho sees things much, much more sober and realistic.
And the military leadership cannot form a new plan for 2024 - if there are no reserves and material ressources left that could be used in such a plan.
Jimbuna
12-06-23, 12:56 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gDOIg6iDrG8
The confrontation between Zelenskyi and Zalushnyi boils on - and not on just a small flame anymore.
https://www-focus-de.translate.goog/politik/ausland/ukraine-krise/streit-in-der-ukraine-vergrault-selenskyj-jetzt-den-mann-der-im-westen-als-mastermind-gilt_id_258266928.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp
The problem is that Zelenskyi now is in a position where he has nothing but illusions to sell anymore - both to the Western donators, and his own people. Zalushnyi imho sees things much, much more sober and realistic.
And the military leadership cannot form a new plan for 2024 - if there are no reserves and material ressources left that could be used in such a plan.
"The key to Russia's victory is internal destabilisation in Ukraine," Lytvynenko wrote.
In addition, the secretary of the National Security and Defence Council, Oleksii Danilov, said in an interview with The Times that Russia had activated a network of spies in Ukraine who were trying to "drive a wedge between the political and military leadership of Ukraine, as well as to stir up anti-government sentiment among the population".
He added that Russia was trying to take advantage of the "so-called tension" between President Zelenskyy and the Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Valerii Zaluzhnyi.
https://svidomi.in.ua/en/page/russia-spends-15-billion-on-the-maidan-3-disinformation-campaign-what-other-campaigns-has-russia-launched-recently
Skybird
12-06-23, 07:11 PM
The tensions between both men are real since the camp of Zelenskyi suspects that Zalushnyi might one day seek higher political merits himself - and he might be the only one having a realistic chance to challenge Zelenskyi. Thats not without irony (that Zelsenkyi is so hard for other contenders to reach) because before the war Zelenskyi was anything but popular, his election was less the result of love or respect, but of protest against the ruling corrupt establishment. Zelenkyi handled the office not well, and he failed to prepare the country for the Tussin attack, since he stuck his head into the sand. But once the war started, he really grew into his boots. If the military success wanes, however, its like the ice Zelenskyi stands on is melting away.
Note that there is another rivalry as well, and that is between Zelenskyi and the mayor of Kyiv, Vitaly Klitschko. Its just not really clear, at least in the media, what these two are about. But here again, Klitschko in my perception has the far more realistic (and sober) view of how the situation is.
Its clear however that currently Zelenskyi has nothing to offer anymore. He sells fantastic illusions currently. Or he tries to. And these get less and less bought even by his own population. And less and lesser by the troops in the field anyway. In the US, there always was a suspicion of the man, one dealt with him since he was the one who was there, but trusting him? I would not go this far to describe my perception of how America sees Zelenskyi.
Zelenskyi's value isin his success in drummign for support and getting Western aid on board. For this he deserves credits for as long as it was successful. But it isnt anymore. And that means he becomes replacable. And maybe replacing him becomes necessary - and that is when it gets clear the West will not give Ukraine the support it needs to continue and win the war. I say since months and months that the West will not equip another four attack brigades for Ukraine. It will not happen.
The conflict will freeze, will drop in intensity, but getting extended without time limit. Russia does this often, freezing conflicts and keeping them simmering on, benefitting from them this way and weakening the other side constantly.
Jimbuna
12-07-23, 05:49 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mYRNa-Yij6Y
Jimbuna
12-07-23, 06:49 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pwOJcnJtiKc
The tensions between both men are real since the camp of Zelenskyi suspects that Zalushnyi might one day seek higher political merits himself - and he might be the only one having a realistic chance to challenge Zelenskyi. Thats not without irony (that Zelsenkyi is so hard for other contenders to reach) because before the war Zelenskyi was anything but popular, his election was less the result of love or respect, but of protest against the ruling corrupt establishment. Zelenkyi handled the office not well, and he failed to prepare the country for the Tussin attack, since he stuck his head into the sand. But once the war started, he really grew into his boots. If the military success wanes, however, its like the ice Zelenskyi stands on is melting away.
Note that there is another rivalry as well, and that is between Zelenskyi and the mayor of Kyiv, Vitaly Klitschko. Its just not really clear, at least in the media, what these two are about. But here again, Klitschko in my perception has the far more realistic (and sober) view of how the situation is.
Its clear however that currently Zelenskyi has nothing to offer anymore. He sells fantastic illusions currently. Or he tries to. And these get less and less bought even by his own population. And less and lesser by the troops in the field anyway. In the US, there always was a suspicion of the man, one dealt with him since he was the one who was there, but trusting him? I would not go this far to describe my perception of how America sees Zelenskyi.
Zelenskyi's value isin his success in drummign for support and getting Western aid on board. For this he deserves credits for as long as it was successful. But it isnt anymore. And that means he becomes replacable. And maybe replacing him becomes necessary - and that is when it gets clear the West will not give Ukraine the support it needs to continue and win the war. I say since months and months that the West will not equip another four attack brigades for Ukraine. It will not happen.
The conflict will freeze, will drop in intensity, but getting extended without time limit. Russia does this often, freezing conflicts and keeping them simmering on, benefitting from them this way and weakening the other side constantly.To know Vitaly Klitschko you have to watch the documatary "Winter On Fire Ukraines Fight For Freedom (2015)" about the Euromaidan protests in Ukraine from 21 November 2013 to 23 February 2014. You will notice when the people take the power and decide what he does not want he gets angry, certainly at the end when one of the leaders of the Defence Unit of the revolution take the stage and says Here's what I want to say. We're ordinary people, talking to these politicians standing behind me. Yanukovych will not be the president for one more year! He must resign! Resign! Resign! My compatriot was shot down! He had a wife and a baby! And our "leaders" shake hands with these murderers! Shame on them! Shame on them! Shame on them! I speak to you on behalf of my entire Defence Unit that my father joined too. If tomorrow by 10:00 a.m. you (Vitaly Klitschko) do not make a statement about Yanukovych's resignation, I swear, we will go on an armed offensive! Vitaly Klitschko is not pleased, certainly not when the people tell him he is nothing without him. Early the next morning, Viktor Yanukovych entered a plane to Russia. The Ukrainian parliament, expressing the will of the Ukrainian nation, declares, first, the President of Ukraine, Viktor Yanukovych, has resigned in an unconstitutional way, and will not be fulfilling the duties of the president. Second, schedule early presidential election for May 25, 2014. Third, this resolution comes into effect from the moment of its adoption. 328 lawmakers voted in favour. The resolution is adopted! I do not trust him. I want to add Ukraine is a democracy, so different opinions are needed for a good democracy. Marshall Allenbrook, the chief of the Imperial general staff in the UK in the second world war and Winston Churchill, they had many serious fights, but they still managed to work it out in the end.
One of you said on several occasions that Putin wouldn't initiate a general mobilization
[Video]
MarkusIf there is a general mobilization it will be after Putin's reelection if they're going to do that it's not just about Ukraine, it is a mobilization against us.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pIKiFAKMoi0
U.S. Companies to Help Launch Ammunition Production in Ukraine
Ukraine has reached an agreement with two leading U.S. companies to jointly produce 155mm ammunition on Ukrainian territory. The Minister of Strategic Industries of Ukraine, Oleksandr Kamyshin, reported on this (https://interfax.com.ua/news/general/952679.html). The Minister noted that the implementation of these projects will take years.
“There are long-term solutions, but they are very important for us. This is the decision to produce ammunition, primarily 155 caliber. We have agreements with two leading U.S. companies on joint production of 155-caliber ammunition in Ukraine,” said Oleksandr Kamyshin. According to the minister, the process of producing 155-caliber ammunition takes “at least two, maximum three years.”
To start such production, Ukraine needs the technologies that its partners have. “Ukraine has never produced these calibers, you know that. Therefore, the sooner we start, the sooner we will have these solutions, and they will work for the Defense Forces,” he said. As previously reported, the U.S. Department of Defense intends to increase the production of 155mm artillery shells by 500% over the next two years.
Growing demand from U.S. allies and a decades-long trend of consolidation in the defense sector have led to an expansion of arms production in the country. https://mil.in.ua/en/news/u-s-companies-to-help-launch-ammunition-production-in-ukraine/
Skybird
12-07-23, 04:25 PM
The WP puts the blame for the failed strategy in parts - major parts? - on Zalushnyi'S shoudlers. However, how realistic was it if the Americans demanded and expected the Ukrainians to push an offensive run according to US doctrine - if thatd octrine rules for air suepriority while the Ukrainians had none? They reacted to the fact that during Russian CAS air raids and gunship attacks they got slaughtered out there.
However, the impression in the US that the Ukrainians not onyl failed but also failed because they refused to follow American advice, certainly will not be helpful to mobilize new American will to send more such quantities of weapons again.
https://www-focus-de.translate.goog/politik/ausland/ukraine-krise/neuer-us-bericht-enthuellt-strategie-debakel-bei-gegenoffensive-der-ukraine_id_259473971.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp (https://www-focus-de.translate.goog/politik/ausland/ukraine-krise/neuer-us-bericht-enthuellt-strategie-debakel-bei-gegenoffensive-der-ukraine_id_259473971.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp)
As I see it currentlky, early Decmbre 2023, Ukraine will not be able anymore to "win the war" according to its terms and definitions. Best they can hope for is to continue and extend the war and keep it running. Russia will bleed, but Ukriane willa slo bleed out. And Ukraine is much less able to afford that constant loss of blood - different to Russia.
This outlook can only change if the West sends much, much more robust aid and supply and weapons than it already has in the previous two years.
But the Western approach and strategy and all thos ehigh-flying hopes so far - must be declared as "failed". And that "fail" is valid for EVERY single variable of Western reaction to the invasion.
Thats bitter, but I just word the truth.
If not MUCH, MUCH more than before gets done, then Ukraine will lose in the long run - and everything. Ans how likely is that? Europe can not compensate a loss of the US as arms provider, it simply does not have the production capacity.
We can not expect that Ukraine operate accord our doctrine of NATO and none of its members would ever fight this in this doctrine without an air superiority no NATO member or the whole would ever begin this offensive. This is what newspapers print, do not think any NATO member sees it like they print. The only professional army are at the fronts we in the west only train that is a huge difference these armies in Ukraine are fighting daily we only play wargames that is not a real war also do not expect we got the experience like they do have in Ukraine if you are not really fighting a war you lose knowledge. I have not heard of generals in NATO that this would be an easy walk to the Sea of Azov, more we can not predict this it will be a hard job to pull off. The lack of air power was always known to be an obstacle to win this that let to the situation that both sides are stuck same happened in WWI and WWII it took the allies almost 2 years to plan, build a new way to win these wars.
Skybird
12-07-23, 05:06 PM
Yes, the West expected them to fight as if they had air superiority, while not providing them with the tools to enforce air superiority. Thats why I asked whether its fair to now blame Zalushnyi for their failure.
A US high mobility ground assault in the open plains of the summer South of ukraine probably would have gotten shot into pieces by Russian air superiority, too.
Some of the German, merican and British trainers' doctrinal expectations simply were inadequate for the war in ukraine, and terrain there. Troops that were getting trained in the West said that repeatedly that not just minor parts of what they were told simply was nonsense for the war reality in Ukraine. The Western doctrine did not meet the material and terrain reality, and it wa signored that the Ukrianaisn ahd no air superiority at all.
And then, the impact of drones, making the battlefield fully transparent: another variable Western doctrine so far does not reflect. You cannot hide huge formatiosn manouveirng anymore, its impossible, and more: the moment they get spotted, they get targetted immediately. THAT is the reaosn wyh the ukrainians fell back to extremely small combat formations, small groupos of troops only. It was the only way to avoid detection. To blame Zalushnyi and accuse him of tactical incompetence - thats what is imlied in the end - is possibly a bit rich. I think the doctrine of NATO simply is inadequate for the reality in Ukraine 2023. Whjat we see now instea dios trench warfare like 1914-18 - and almost nobody in Brussels expected to ever see that again.
Putin’s Pals Think the GOP Just Won Them the War in Ukraine
‘WELL DONE, REPUBLICANS!’
Kremlin propagandists celebrate the Republican move to block funding and predict President Trump will totally cut off Ukraine and Israel. Republicans voted to block a $110.5 billion emergency spending bill to aid Ukraine and Israel Wednesday night, sparking celebrations in Moscow where they believe the U.S. will withdraw support for Kyiv allowing them to win the war.
A classified briefing with administration officials reportedly devolved into a meltdown on Tuesday afternoon, making it clear that the measure would fail. “We are about to abandon Ukraine,” Senator Christopher S. Murphy told the press as he left the briefing. “When Vladimir Putin marches into a NATO country, they will rue the day they decided to play politics with the future of Ukraine’s security.”
These developments prompted jubilation in Moscow. During Wednesday’s broadcast of a state TV program 60 Minutes, Evgeny Popov said Ukraine was now in “agony” and it was “difficult to imagine a bigger humiliation.”
During his morning show Full Contact on Wednesday, top pro-Kremlin propagandist Vladimir Solovyov joyfully noted: “[Janet] Yellen screamed, “Don’t you dare!” [Joe] Biden screamed, “Don’t you dare!” but Republicans said, “Go to hell! We won’t give your khokhols [slur for “Ukrainians”] any money.” The segment was entitled, “No one needs Ukraine anymore—especially the United States.”
Appearing on his program, America analyst Dmitry Drobnitsky noted, “The downfall of Ukraine means the downfall of Biden! Two birds with one stone!” During his appearance on 60 Minutes, Dmitry Abzalov, president of the Center for Strategic Communications, predicted that the fiasco with the funding for Ukraine will spell the political demise of Biden. Host Olga Skabeeva added, “We’ll have no pity for him! To the contrary, we’re ready to hammer those final nails right in!” With a happy grin, Skabeeva said, “Well done, Republicans! They’re standing firm! That’s good for us.”
Roman Golovanov, the host of Golovanov’s Time on Vladimir Solovyov’s channel Solovyov Live, pointed out, “This will be a great revelation to other countries. It is even more dangerous to be a friend of the United States than its enemy. In the end, they will abandon you, leaving nothing but the scorched earth on your territory.”... https://www.thedailybeast.com/putins-pals-think-the-gop-just-won-them-the-war-in-ukraine
The military supply from the West to Ukraine was last month at the lowest since the start of the war-This according to some German institute(kiel institute)
https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker/
Markus
Skybird
12-07-23, 06:24 PM
The military supply from the West to Ukraine was last month at the lowest since the start of the war-This according to some German institute(kiel institute)
https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker/
Markus
I do not know whether the Kiel Institute for World Economy is one of the leading institutes for economic topics as some claim, but they usally are agreed to be in the top of sources assessing the overall donations made and aid packages send to Ukraine. Which may mean something. Or not. I have quoted them before, too.
----------------
This comment by CNN nails it.
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/12/07/europe/ukraine-western-unity-faltering-putin-intl-cmd/index.html
I do not know whether the Kiel Institute for World Economy is one of the leading institutes for economic topics as some claim, but they usally are agreed to be in the top of sources assessing the overall donations made and aid packages send to Ukraine. Which may mean something. Or not. I have quoted them before, too.
----------------
This comment by CNN nails it.
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/12/07/europe/ukraine-western-unity-faltering-putin-intl-cmd/index.html
There is a saying in Sweden "vända kappan efter vinden" Meaning to switch sides when it benefits you
Are the West starting to change their mind regarding Russia ??
In the beginning of the invasion the west was fully on the Ukrainian side and now it seems that they are starting to switch to a more friendly attitude towards Russia.
The expected offensive ran out in the sand. The sanction against Russia has backfired(did not have the effect the west had predicted)
This is only a thought I have I can be wrong.
Markus
Skybird
12-07-23, 07:35 PM
To say "turns friendly towards Russia" is maybe too much said, but as I use to say: while they have not farewelled Zelenskyi out of the room already - they nevertheless have started to remind him where his coat hangs.
Jimbuna
12-08-23, 07:26 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aukQOCs_ojE
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AIp4MI1Npww&ab_channel=CombatVeteranReacts
Markus
Skybird
12-08-23, 07:29 AM
A study of medical conditions in Ukrainian hospitals reveals concerning news:
------------------
[FR] The spread of multi-resistant germs was investigated at the end of 2022 in three regions in western and central Ukraine, a good 450 kilometers from the front line near Kherson. In the three hospitals studied, 14 percent of the 353 patients examined suffered from an infection that had only been contracted in hospital. Of these, however, more than half suffered from an antibiotic-resistant infection. Resistant even to the reserve antibiotic carbapanems, which, according to the CDC, is considered a "last resort" against hospital germs.
The researchers were particularly concerned about one lung germ: Klebsiella pneumoniae, which causes antibiotic-resistant pneumonia, was found in 30 percent of all patients infected with hospital germs. An EU-wide survey from 2017 was cited as a comparison: Here, only 5.5 percent of those affected were suffering from a hospital germ infection. Of these, around six percent were resistant to reserve antibiotics. This means that only 0.03 percent of people in the EU were infected with antibiotic-resistant germs. In the three hospitals investigated in Ukraine, the figure was around 8.5 percent. This would mean an incidence almost 300 times higher than in Europe.
-------------------
This could turn into a runaway train beyond the borders.
Skybird
12-08-23, 07:31 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AIp4MI1Npww&ab_channel=CombatVeteranReacts
Markus
"Unsustainable losses"? I hear and read that phrase since over one year now.
Jimbuna
12-08-23, 07:31 AM
You and me both :yep:
Exocet25fr
12-08-23, 07:49 AM
Maybe the bear is more bigger and stronger than you thought :hmmm:
Jimbuna
12-08-23, 07:54 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xTbaS8R4fiY
Bilge_Rat
12-08-23, 12:45 PM
I think the issue we are seeing in the West is not so much war fatigue, but increasing distrust of how it is being run.
A lot of focus is on the fact that Republicans are not approving the $60 billion of additional aid, but that is just the tip of the iceberg. The WH is not saying this extra $60B will win the war, just that it will prevent Ukrainian collapse for another 3-6 months. No one expects the stalemate to break anytime soon. So what happens in another 3-6 months? We have to pony up another $60 Billion? How many years will we have to keep pouring money into this? 1 year? 2 years ? 5 years? 10 years? 20 years?
No one seems to have any idea what the endgame is, just a fuzzy notion that Ukraine has to be "liberated" from the Russians without a clear strategy of how to do it WITHOUT winding up in WW3/Nuclear Holocaust.
This war is starting to look more and more like the Afghanistan War. Everyone said we had to keep the Taliban out or it would be the beginning of the end of civilization as we know it. The War lasted 20 years, cost trillions of dollars and the Taliban have been back in power for over 2 years. Notice how despite all the previous handwringing, no one cares about Afghanistan anymore?
Jimbuna
12-08-23, 12:58 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=phYEPNQkPMo
I think the issue we are seeing in the West is not so much war fatigue, but increasing distrust of how it is being run.
A lot of focus is on the fact that Republicans are not approving the $60 billion of additional aid, but that is just the tip of the iceberg. The WH is not saying this extra $60B will win the war, just that it will prevent Ukrainian collapse for another 3-6 months. No one expects the stalemate to break anytime soon. So what happens in another 3-6 months? We have to pony up another $60 Billion? How many years will we have to keep pouring money into this? 1 year? 2 years ? 5 years? 10 years? 20 years?
No one seems to have any idea what the endgame is, just a fuzzy notion that Ukraine has to be "liberated" from the Russians without a clear strategy of how to do it WITHOUT winding up in WW3/Nuclear Holocaust.
This war is starting to look more and more like the Afghanistan War. Everyone said we had to keep the Taliban out or it would be the beginning of the end of civilization as we know it. The War lasted 20 years, cost trillions of dollars and the Taliban have been back in power for over 2 years. Notice how despite all the previous handwringing, no one cares about Afghanistan anymore?You can not compare Afghanistan with Ukraine. Ukraine is a democratic state Afghanistan is not a state it was and is ruled by warlords even the US could not get rid of them these warlords are running it for centuries. If the West does not help now, they gone pay for it in the future not in the already given support but much more also in western blood.
I think the issue we are seeing in the West is not so much war fatigue, but increasing distrust of how it is being run.
A lot of focus is on the fact that Republicans are not approving the $60 billion of additional aid, but that is just the tip of the iceberg. The WH is not saying this extra $60B will win the war, just that it will prevent Ukrainian collapse for another 3-6 months. No one expects the stalemate to break anytime soon. So what happens in another 3-6 months? We have to pony up another $60 Billion? How many years will we have to keep pouring money into this? 1 year? 2 years ? 5 years? 10 years? 20 years?
No one seems to have any idea what the endgame is, just a fuzzy notion that Ukraine has to be "liberated" from the Russians without a clear strategy of how to do it WITHOUT winding up in WW3/Nuclear Holocaust.
This war is starting to look more and more like the Afghanistan War. Everyone said we had to keep the Taliban out or it would be the beginning of the end of civilization as we know it. The War lasted 20 years, cost trillions of dollars and the Taliban have been back in power for over 2 years. Notice how despite all the previous handwringing, no one cares about Afghanistan anymore?
We are not fighting this war, the Ukrainians are. Don't you understand the difference? We are merely helping them with the means to fight for their survival.
Russia could be beaten like a red headed step child back to pre-2014 borders and it won't start WW3. It just might start if he is victorious in Ukraine and moves on to attack the Baltic states or Poland.
We are not fighting this war, the Ukrainians are. Don't you understand the difference? We are merely helping them with the means to fight for their survival.
Russia could be beaten like a red headed step child back to pre-2014 borders and it won't start WW3. It just might start if he is victorious in Ukraine and moves on to attack the Baltic states or Poland.Agree if Putin wins in Ukraine it is not only Ukraine that lost Putin will sell it as he defeated the West so that his allies in the anti-West block can do the same and Russia will start a war in the Baltics when he wins in Ukraine be sure of that after that he will annex the whole former USSR satellites countries because he thinks they are Russia.
Otto Harkaman
12-08-23, 05:01 PM
Its over, get ready for the fall out
Its over, get ready for the fall outWhat is over?
Skybird
12-08-23, 05:07 PM
I think the issue we are seeing in the West is not so much war fatigue, but increasing distrust of how it is being run.
Not "either this or that", but both is true.
A lot of focus is on the fact that Republicans are not approving the $60 billion of additional aid, but that is just the tip of the iceberg. The WH is not saying this extra $60B will win the war, just that it will prevent Ukrainian collapse for another 3-6 months. No one expects the stalemate to break anytime soon. So what happens in another 3-6 months? We have to pony up another $60 Billion? How many years will we have to keep pouring money into this? 1 year? 2 years ? 5 years? 10 years? 20 years?
Valid questions. However, truth also is that the Republicans use this to blackmail the WH on tougher immigrations policies in the US.
No one seems to have any idea what the endgame is, just a fuzzy notion that Ukraine has to be "liberated" from the Russians without a clear strategy of how to do it WITHOUT winding up in WW3/Nuclear Holocaust.
I thi k in the QWest they start to realise two things: first, they way they hoped would be sufficnet to suppoort Ukroane towars a victory was misled and self-deceptiove, and seocnd, it dawns on peopel what it woudl really would take to make sure Ukraine wins. And many concluded in the backyear dof their minds that they might not be willign to pay the price, though it still takes them time to admit this tought. However, we the West pay only a pric ein goods and money. The Ukrainians must pay in blood.
This war is starting to look more and more like the Afghanistan War. Everyone said we had to keep the Taliban out or it would be the beginning of the end of civilization as we know it. The War lasted 20 years, cost trillions of dollars and the Taliban have been back in power for over 2 years. Notice how despite all the previous handwringing, no one cares about Afghanistan anymore?
Afghanistan was bringing out seeds on an unfertile soil, metaphorically. Ukraine is a fertile ground, both metaphorically and literally,
although there are still weeds everywhere that need to be weeded, but at least they are trying.
Besides, it's right on our (Europe's) doorstep and not half a globe away. Uncomfortably close, that means. Putin, or his Simulacrum, just days ago threatened Latvia.
Otto Harkaman
12-08-23, 05:08 PM
This war, no way this thing is going to last to next December
The Europeans better get their butts in gear
Skybird
12-08-23, 05:10 PM
Its over, get ready for the fall out
Not over yet, but already decided if we do not dramatically boost opur support. We need trains of supplies going to Ukraine - every week. Two or three trains per day. Ammo, drones, missiles, vehicles, tanks, APCs - everything
However - where should they come from, their load I mean?
And where should the manpower of the Ukrainian combat forces come from?
This war, no way this thing is going to last to next December
The Europeans better get their butts in gearNah this war will last year's Ukraine will not surrender, both sides are going to active defence for this winter to build up for spring/summer this is not over.
Skybird
12-08-23, 05:12 PM
The Europeans better get their butts in gear
There are more important things on his mind.
https://assets.cicero.de/styles/cc_980x550/public/2021-12/267637399.jpg?itok=ikNSmFIe
Agree if Putin wins in Ukraine it is not only Ukraine that lost Putin will sell it as he defeated the West so that his allies in the anti-West block can do the same and Russia will start a war in the Baltics when he wins in Ukraine be sure of that after that he will annex the whole former USSR satellites countries because he thinks they are Russia.
He's stated more than once that he considers the historical limits of the Czarist and Soviet empires as russian territory. AS long as he is in power he will not stop trying to achieve it.
Otto Harkaman
12-08-23, 05:15 PM
Its not going to happen, you had your push this summer. I said repeatedly they should stay on the defense. They've wasted all their reserves, where are the men going to come from?
This is attrition warfare there are no brilliant maneuvers, its easy to count one stack against the other and one stack is measurable smaller than the other.
Its not going to happen, you had your push this summer. I said repeatedly they should stay on the defense. They've wasted all their reserves, where are the men going to come from?
This is attrition warfare there are no brilliant maneuvers, its easy to count one stack against the other and one stack is measurable smaller than the other.Ukraine fighting an average 41 the younger generation has not been mobilized from the amour delivered this year only about 5% is lost or damaged so do not know were you got they waisted their reserves after a couple of weeks of the offensive Ukraine change its tactic to save men and material. Nobody in the west knows what Ukraine has or have left, Ukraine opsec is very good so we do not know anything. Easy to say, "you had your push this summer" if you do not get the tools needed to do the job.
Otto Harkaman
12-08-23, 05:40 PM
I don't wish the Ukrainians bad things, I am just being realistic (in my opinion).
Skybird
12-08-23, 05:41 PM
Colonel Reisner, yesterday:
https://www-n--tv-de.translate.goog/politik/Putin-versucht-den-Westen-auszusitzen-article24585399.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp
Bilge_Rat
12-08-23, 06:17 PM
We are not fighting this war, the Ukrainians are. Don't you understand the difference?
Of course they are and like any free people anywhere, they are free to fight to the last man, woman or child if they so choose. Masada is a good example of the results.
But this open ended support, we will give them whatever they need in terms of $ or equipment, when it is becoming increasingly clear that the Ukrainians cannot win, cannot push the Russians out and this is just a bloody stalemate makes no sense.
It should be obvious at this point that the Russians are not the "Bogeymen" we have been taught to fear, but more like Keystone Cops who could not conquer any more of Ukraine even if they wanted to. The Russians have been on the defensive for 18 months.
Keeping this war going for years in the hope that Putin will be overthrown, Russia's economy will collapse and a western liberal democracy subservient to the USA will rise from the ashes is a total fantasy.
The definition of insanity is to keep doing the same thing over and over and over and over agin and to "hope" that somehow the results will be different.
It's not only among the politicians here in the west we see an increase of anti-Ukraine words, even among the ordinary citizens there is an upgoing tendency of war fatigue.
I don't think it has to do with the fact that Ukraine didn't do so well during this summer, but the fact that the war may continue another 3-5 years or more
If Putin win the war in Ukraine he may be interested in the Balkans and other former Soviet states-Someone wrote
Well another one wrote Russia isn't in the shape of facing a well trained army like the Polish or the Czechs
Markus
Commander Wallace
12-08-23, 07:05 PM
Of course they are and like any free people anywhere, they are free to fight to the last man, woman or child if they so choose. Masada is a good example of the results.
But this open ended support, we will give them whatever they need in terms of $ or equipment, when it is becoming increasingly clear that the Ukrainians cannot win, cannot push the Russians out and this is just a bloody stalemate makes no sense.
It should be obvious at this point that the Russians are not the "Bogeymen" we have been taught to fear, but more like Keystone Cops who could not conquer any more of Ukraine even if they wanted to. The Russians have been on the defensive for 18 months.
Keeping this war going for years in the hope that Putin will be overthrown, Russia's economy will collapse and a western liberal democracy subservient to the USA will rise from the ashes is a total fantasy.
The definition of insanity is to keep doing the same thing over and over and over and over agin and to "hope" that somehow the results will be different.
While there is a lot of truth and logic to what you are saying, withdrawing support for the Ukraine may be very short sighted. The U.S made security guarantees to the Ukraine in exchange for them giving up the Nuclear arsenal they inherited from the breakup of the former Soviet Union. That was a stupid and equally short sighted mistake by the U.S. If the U.S doesn't honor it's agreements, why would NATO expect us to honor our agreements with them or trust us ?
Like Germany in their land grab in World War II, Putin will not stop at the Ukraine were Russia to prevail there. There is a new Axis of evil with regards to Russia, China, North Korea and Iran. All of these countries are engaged in various territorial land and sea grabs.
Appeasement of Germany in World War II didn't work then and a similar philosophy with Russia won't work today. The only things these countries understand is force.
Skybird
12-08-23, 07:35 PM
^ :salute: :up:
There are two prizes to be won for the axis of evil. First, Taiwan and its semiconductor industry for China. Second, the establishment of a new world order in which Europe no longer plays a role and the US no longer has the power to impose its own views, but in which the law of the stronger and more unscrupulous prevails and international law no longer stands in the way.
This may lead, in the long run and final outcome of this century, to the Russian imperial dominance in and over Europe. (At least that is what they are aiming at when trying to drive a wedge between Europe and the US, and Israel and the US).
Of course they are and like any free people anywhere, they are free to fight to the last man, woman or child if they so choose. Masada is a good example of the results.
But this open ended support, we will give them whatever they need in terms of $ or equipment, when it is becoming increasingly clear that the Ukrainians cannot win, cannot push the Russians out and this is just a bloody stalemate makes no sense.
It should be obvious at this point that the Russians are not the "Bogeymen" we have been taught to fear, but more like Keystone Cops who could not conquer any more of Ukraine even if they wanted to. The Russians have been on the defensive for 18 months.
Keeping this war going for years in the hope that Putin will be overthrown, Russia's economy will collapse and a western liberal democracy subservient to the USA will rise from the ashes is a total fantasy.
The definition of insanity is to keep doing the same thing over and over and over and over agin and to "hope" that somehow the results will be different.
You're way too impatient. It's only been two years. Few wars especially ones of this scale are ever that short. I think the Ukrainians can win but it's going to take a couple more years at least. That might just be enough for Putins regime to crumble.
While there is a lot of truth and logic to what you are saying, withdrawing support for the Ukraine may be very short sighted. The U.S made security guarantees to the Ukraine in exchange for them giving up the Nuclear arsenal they inherited from the breakup of the former Soviet Union. That was a stupid and equally short sighted mistake by the U.S. If the U.S doesn't honor it's agreements, why would NATO expect us to honor our agreements with them or trust us ?
Like Germany in their land grab in World War II, Putin will not stop at the Ukraine were Russia to prevail there. There is a new Axis of evil with regards to Russia, China, North Korea and Iran. All of these countries are engaged in various territorial land and sea grabs.
Appeasement of Germany in World War II didn't work then and a similar philosophy with Russia won't work today. The only things these countries understand is force.
Ah,Darth Vader I believe the Russians took their nuclear weapons with them when they left Ukraine. And the Russians promised security guarantees for Ukraine.But NATO and the European Union love to play chess,Now we are talking about the richest families within their own countries joining with the richest Americans.And creating the world Axis of evil using the American dollar as a world currency. And if you get on the **** list.No Money for you and Sanctions. Ya know this planet is getting smaller with the greed of the wealthy.Have you ever looked at Russia on google maps? You can send all your missiles and their will still be Russians but your countries that compose the EU and the United States will be ? Not every country wants the new world order if it can't be bought and certainly not the Muslim's.The women yes the weak and woke men and women no.
Oh Damn Ukraine ? Yea well the American politicians that are the world's Royal Families.Ya gotta have a war, the old hippies the ones that sang the songs and now wear the suits and ties.Convince gullible actors to destroy their countries. War criminals>NATO and their leaders.Ya see they are not really qualified to lead,their families have just inherited their status.Ya don't believe me. Let's give them a game called SimCity and in 14 days in isolation best city builder is the next President.Yea i have to throw this in the last 35 years have been the best for emission controls on petrol fueled cars and now i could stick my face in front of an exhaust pipe and get my face burned before i run out of oxygen.
^ gotta stop sipping Grandpa's whisky mate!! :doh::yep:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SAUaiE-upOI
Jimbuna
12-09-23, 05:21 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=in4w5hda4PY
Jimbuna
12-09-23, 06:04 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Tj8uj27fic
Skybird
12-09-23, 06:58 AM
The Republicans' manouvering is irresponsible - and against America's very own national interest.
https://www.nzz.ch/meinung/ukraine-krieg-ohne-fortgesetzte-militaerhilfe-der-usa-geht-es-nicht-ld.1769588?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp
Of course, European behavior also raises questions. But the current American failure is at least as serious, in my opinion even more so. Without weapons aid from the USA, nothing would work in Ukraine. Nothing at all. Europe will not be able to replace American supplies in terms of production capacity for many years to come - even if it wanted to. A defeat in Ukraine will cost Europe first - but also America woudl need to change its flows of geopoliticla ressources and would need to invest to contain the consequences - and much more then than what the funding of the running war now costs. The US economy is far too internationally intertwined these days for isolationism to be a viable foreign policy option.
Jimbuna
12-09-23, 07:07 AM
Putin can now afford to sit back and play the waiting game.
Skybird
12-09-23, 09:21 AM
Putin can now afford to sit back and play the waiting game.
He does that since late summer/early autumn 2022. The last real successes by Ukraine were Kyiv, Cherson and Charkiv last year. However, when this winter comes to Ukraine in full, I see Russia going on the offensive as the most likely of all scenarios currently. The US dropout from providing supplies causes so dramatic ammo shortages already that Ukraine already now must raiton ammo, and has gone everywhere into defensive mode.
Jimbuna
12-09-23, 11:12 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PGjFNaCu9j4
^ The Ukrainian have said on several occasions that they wouldn't put regular boots on the ground in Russia(something like that)
If this video is correct then they have changed their mind and I welcome it.
It means moving soldiers from the front, but also Russia has to move soldiers who should have been sent to the front into the area where Ukraine has invaded.
Markus
Exocet25fr
12-09-23, 01:15 PM
Hotto Harkaman wrote:
I don't wish the Ukrainians bad things, I am just being realistic (in my opinion).
Precisely :yep:
Catfish
12-09-23, 06:35 PM
Equally precisely I wish Russia or especially Putin and his whole cleptocracy system the worst, just because it started this war of aggression with false pretexts.
There is nothing about hate or get aggravated about, the world should just finish them off to improve life for all.
em2nought
12-09-23, 08:05 PM
One group from western civilization killing another group from western civilization. I'll never get it. I'm sure Chyna is thrilled, not to mention a bunch of Hamas' friends too. :har:
Skybird
12-09-23, 08:37 PM
The other civilizations were and are not different in that. ;) when it comes to greed for power, you will find psychopaths everywhere. Especially Africa on my mind, but not only that.
Jimbuna
12-10-23, 05:52 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a2eFZFMTBrA
Jimbuna
12-10-23, 06:30 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mkOvYUqv8TI
Skybird
12-10-23, 06:39 AM
The Repulicans now are Putins best allies. If Ukrainians do not loose by themselves, the Republicans make sure they will.
https://m-focus-de.translate.goog/politik/meinung/kommentar-vom-tagesspiegel-gewinnt-putin-jetzt-doch-in-der-ukraine-droht-die-katastrophe-der-westen-muss-schnell-sein_id_259482315.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp
Torvald Von Mansee
12-10-23, 07:44 AM
The Repulicans now are Putins best allies. If Ukrainians do not loose by themselves, the Republicans make sure they will.
https://m-focus-de.translate.goog/politik/meinung/kommentar-vom-tagesspiegel-gewinnt-putin-jetzt-doch-in-der-ukraine-droht-die-katastrophe-der-westen-muss-schnell-sein_id_259482315.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp
I wonder how many Republicans are being blackmailed by Russia vs. those who are Russian agents vs. those who are anti-Ukraine just because The Psychopathic Cheeto is an obvious Russian agent. It's truly insane he could win the election. Again.
Jimbuna
12-10-23, 08:07 AM
I wonder how many Republicans are being blackmailed by Russia vs. those who are Russian agents vs. those who are anti-Ukraine just because The Psychopathic Cheeto is an obvious Russian agent. It's truly insane he could win the election. Again.
Which candidate are you referring to?
Skybird
12-10-23, 09:48 AM
As forseen by tank experts:
https://www-fr-de.translate.goog/politik/irak-verluste-panzer-abrams-leopard-ukraine-russland-krieg-wladimir-putin-nato-92707612.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp
And I randomly read snippets of news hinting at that the Leopard-1 is of more use in Ukraine than the Leopard 2. Also , Ukraine's famous 1st tank brigade that has delivered the Russians numerous significant blows prefers to run its T-64BV Obr, built in 2017, over using Western tanks.
I hear a lot of it - Ukraine can't win this war.
This have made me think.
How would it look like if Ukraine got what they need and ask for ?
Could Ukraine win the war if this was the case ?
How would it look like if Ukraine had around 1 million more in reserves
(Sadly they don't have this extra reserves)
Markus
Skybird
12-10-23, 02:30 PM
The absurdity of this war already starts with the basic assumption that everybody seems to agree to, that is that the soil and industry and factories of the country that has started this war, are untouchable and Russian soil is territory non grata. What Ukraine needs is the ability to fight according to an eye for an eye, tooth a for tooth. Strikes on Russian cities and their industrial areas must become the norm. In a more perfect world at least. That emans, ammuniton and long range missiles allwoujg nthat, and not just a few, but tons of them: enough to do it every day, day for day, day for day, and day for day.
Instead everybody seems to imply that the war is allowed only to destroy Ukrainian industry and cities.
Of course my way of warfare would raise the stakes. But my ideas on war are not compliant with the endless concerns of Western countries anyway, of course, and are more - well, more unforgiving, more Klingon, and in a way: more Russian. Thats why I am not eager to go to war. I do not like my ideas on war.
I do not believe in well-dosed forms of limited war. To me war is an all or nothing at all affair. Anything else is a recipe for getting defeated. And especially modern history proves me right. As I see it, at least.
Thats why I realise that the US wants to boil the frog - I try to be a realist after all. But I am absolutely no friend of this boiling the frog idea.
I am convinced that Ukraine has no chance if the war is not being carried deep into Russia, and into the heart of the Russian industry. Not sanctioning it - but DESTROYING it.
Alternatively start killing Russian males by the millions and many millions, if you like that better.
Skybird wrote:
"I am convinced that Ukraine has no chance if the war is not being carried deep into Russia, and into the heart of the Russian industry. Not sanctioning it - but DESTROYING it."
I agree that they should take the war into the heart of Russia.
The question is does they have enough men and material to do so-Open a second front ?
It will also be second front for Russia- They have more men and material though.
Markus
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4caTxBoOtJc&ab_channel=CombatVeteranReacts
Markus
Why would Ukraine sit down for talks right now? Do you think Ukrainian society would accept that? Russia wants a peace deal in exchange for Ukrainian neutrality and committed that Ukraine would not join NATO. Such a proposal would require an amendment to Ukraine’s constitution, which stipulates that the country intends to join NATO.
Fight on if you must, we are tapped out in money and I don't want to go and fight, get the Europeans to help you!Every support to Ukraine means contracts in the US what is given out of stock will be ordered to replenish in the US. If a peace deal is done Russia will in 3 to 10 years attack NATO than it will cost hugely more.
Fight on if you must, we are tapped out in money and I don't want to go and fight, get the Europeans to help you!
Have to admit that you are right-We the Europeans should take more responsibility over our own backyard and not let some other take the lead.
Markus
Have to admit that you are right-We the Europeans should take more responsibility over our own backyard and not let some other take the lead.
MarkusAs of July 2023, the European Union institutions have been the biggest donor, sending over $90 billion through various mechanisms such as loans or grants, and military assistance through its European Peace Facility fund. Unlike the United States sending over $73 billion, which has the largest share of aid in military support, the EU has focused on financial aid. Ukraine has received over $230 billion in aid since the Russian invasion in 2022. EU institutions and the U.S. together account for almost 70% of the total aid. Europe has not the production for this kinda war, but rich enough to support otherwise than military, the U.S. has those stocks enough to do this. As domestic production in donating economies ramps up over the next few years to replace that equipment, a rising proportion of military spending could be directed to durable capital goods. Furthermore, the effects of public spending on military research and development can spill over into other sectors and stimulate aggregate demand and aggregate supply simultaneously.
Skybird
12-10-23, 05:58 PM
The American in dustrial capacity to produce for war is bigger than Europe's, but that does not mean it is infite in supply. Sopecial ammunitions and missiles for exmapel are harder to get in the US as well and have an ordering time. Still, the Us is much better in this than the European industries, that is true. Just saying this to counter unrealistic expectations.
Plus the US must hold stuff in reserve for other possible theatres of operation, namely Taiwan.
Also, Western industries to varying degrees are dependent on certain special ressources they need to import from overseas.
Skybird
12-10-23, 06:04 PM
Skybird wrote:
"I am convinced that Ukraine has no chance if the war is not being carried deep into Russia, and into the heart of the Russian industry. Not sanctioning it - but DESTROYING it."
I agree that they should take the war into the heart of Russia.
The question is does they have enough men and material to do so-Open a second front ?
It will also be second front for Russia- They have more men and material though.
Markus
Not ground invasion I think of. But modern long range missiles and cruise missiles taking out key factories, critical infrastructure, energy, export facilties for oil, gas, etc, North Korean and Iranian supply deliveries in artillery shells.
We should not fire these weapons, but provide Ukraine with a huge, never-ending supply of these.
Instead the US provides a very small quantity of very old ATCAMs, first generation, which it wanted to dump from its arsenal anyway to make room for newer stuff. And it still has range limits for their use in place. Germany even rejects to sent Taurus due to the range being a concern for them. Babble Olaf even explicitly said - yes, he said that! - that he worries that the Taurus could be used to attack the Kerch bridge. Bubble Olaf obviously is very concerned about the chance that Ukraine could interrupt Russian logistics. Mind you, Bubble Olaf never said that Ukraine must win the war by victory, he said that "ukraine should not lose and Russia must not win". Slippery little a.h. Biden's endless concerns are not any better, btw. And the US Republicans' cynism just makes me sick.
With this attitude, both American and European, you cannot win this war.
Disgusting.
Skybird
12-10-23, 06:15 PM
Lets go the other route and concede the battlefield, negotiate a peace and prepare the next line of defenseWith 20% of territory and the industrial heartland gone, and Russia being in surveillance and SAM control of much of the Black Sea and Ukrainian air space (due to their control of Crimea). And the appetite of the big bear just having woken up. It wanst to reionsbtal the oprder of Tsarist Russia, at least Sovjet Russia. What is there to negotiate with a neighbour like this when your position is that of weakness?
Skybird
12-10-23, 06:18 PM
Why would Ukraine sit down for talks right now? Do you think Ukrainian society would accept that? Russia wants a peace deal in exchange for Ukrainian neutrality and committed that Ukraine would not join NATO. Such a proposal would require an amendment to Ukraine’s constitution, which stipulates that the country intends to join NATO.
Different to Zelensky, thats at leats my impression formt he media news of many sources, the optimsim of the past months and early poahse of the war is gone. People have been chewed on for almost two years, they are tired, exhausted, and want their men bakc hiome, those that still live at least.
They are not yet mentally broken, but on their way to get there. Many women now volunteer for military training and service since they run out of new men for recruitment.
Skybird
12-10-23, 06:24 PM
I hope you are thinking of joining your local militia
We dont have that, and I am getting 57 - and worse, I am in Germany. There are things worth to fight for. The modern German ideas and concepts are not what I would defend. Haven't you ever noticed how very much pleased I am with this Germany I live in?
I live in Germany like an alien who crash-landed on a foreign planet. :03: And I have fallen out of time.
As of July 2023, the European Union institutions have been the biggest donor, sending over $90 billion through various mechanisms such as loans or grants, and military assistance through its European Peace Facility fund. Unlike the United States sending over $73 billion, which has the largest share of aid in military support, the EU has focused on financial aid. Ukraine has received over $230 billion in aid since the Russian invasion in 2022. EU institutions and the U.S. together account for almost 70% of the total aid. Europe has not the production for this kinda war, but rich enough to support otherwise than military, the U.S. has those stocks enough to do this. As domestic production in donating economies ramps up over the next few years to replace that equipment, a rising proportion of military spending could be directed to durable capital goods. Furthermore, the effects of public spending on military research and development can spill over into other sectors and stimulate aggregate demand and aggregate supply simultaneously.
It is not so much the question who gives most, but the increase of war fatigue among the ordinary citizens in USA and Europe.
And I understand them somehow
Here in Denmark our Elderly and our weakest are suffering from cut downs while the government post billions of Danish kroner into Ukraine.
Markus
Otto Harkaman
12-10-23, 06:27 PM
I have fallen out of time.
So have I friend
Not ground invasion I think of. But modern long range missiles and cruise missiles taking out key factories, critical infrastructure, energy, export facilties for oil, gas, etc, North Korean and Iranian supply deliveries in artillery shells.
I thought that this already happens- Special forces from Ukraine operating behind enemy lines and/or Russian partisan sabotage railroads and so on.
Markus
Skybird
12-11-23, 04:45 AM
In case of EU membership, 17% of the 1 trillion EU budget would flow into Ukraine.
https://www-welt-de.translate.goog/wirtschaft/article248981732/Ukraine-17-Prozent-des-EU-Haushalts-Studie-berechnet-Folgen-des-Beitritts.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp
Jimbuna
12-11-23, 06:39 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y83qF_LHpo4
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WZkAPq9xQcQ&ab_channel=CombatVeteranReacts
Markus
Jimbuna
12-11-23, 08:19 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P-ZBYgT--14
Skybird
12-11-23, 11:41 AM
Putin has a boost of confidence. He now speaks openly of "war" instead of "special operation". He is traveling abroad again. He rejoices.
Someone knows that he is now on the road to victory. Thanks to a completely narrow-minded West.
The window of opportunity for the West to turn things against Russia again by dramatically changing its policy, is closing. Will what is left of it be used at the last second? Nothing, absolutely nothing, suggests that it will.
https://www-focus-de.translate.goog/politik/ausland/ukraine-krise/russland-experte-warnt-putin-hat-ein-neues-kriegsziel-und-es-ist-militaerisch-erreichbar_id_259487268.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp
Oh yes, Germany is about to make the Russian supplier Germany's biggest supplier of LNG. So, still gas from Russia, only now much more expensive - well done! Fertilizers for agriculture are also bringing Russia record profits, as gas for production in Russia is available for a penny, but these fertilizers are sold for expensive money. Main customer: Europe.
I fear that Ukraine can write off the four occupied provinces. The West will not get its acts together in time. If ever.
Jimbuna
12-11-23, 11:46 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2NHam9mXy1Y
Skybird
12-11-23, 11:49 AM
^ Let the haggling begin!
Jimbuna
12-11-23, 12:07 PM
^ Exactly :yep:
Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Maria Zakharova emphasized that Russia's maximalist objectives in Ukraine have not changed, repeating the Kremlin’s demand for full Ukrainian political capitulation and Kyiv’s acceptance of Russia’s military and territorial demands rather than suggesting any willingness to negotiate seriously. In a written interview with AFP on December 9, Zakharova claimed that a "comprehensive, sustainable, and fair resolution" in Ukraine can only happen if the West stops "pumping up the Armed Forces of Ukraine with weapons" and that Ukraine surrenders Russia’s claimed Ukrainian territory and "withdraws its troops," presumably from Ukrainian territory Russia claims to have annexed.[1] Zakharova emphasized the Kremlin's longstanding claim that Russia invaded Ukraine for "de-militarization," "denazification," and to "ensure the rights of Russian-speaking citizens" in Ukraine.[2] The Kremlin has consistently used the term “denazification” as code for the removal of the elected government of Ukraine and its replacement by some government the Kremlin regards as acceptable—i.e., regime change.[3] “De-militarization” would obviously leave Ukraine permanently at Russia’s mercy. Zakharova's comments clearly highlight the fact that the initial goals of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, as set out by Russian President Vladimir Putin on February 24, 2022, have not changed, and that Putin does not intend to end the war unless his maximalist objectives have been accomplished.[4] ISW continues to assess that Russia does not intend to engage in serious negotiations with Ukraine in good faith and that negotiations on Russia's terms are tantamount to full Ukrainian and Western surrender.[5]
Zakharova's demand that Ukraine withdraw its troops from "Russian territory" as a necessary prerequisite for the resolution of the war suggests that Russia's maximalist objectives include controlling the entirety of the four oblasts it has illegally annexed parts of. Russian forces currently militarily control portions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts, but Russia formally (and illegally) annexed the entirety of these oblasts in September of 2022.[6] Zakharova's suggestion that Ukrainian forces must entirely withdraw from territory that Russia has claimed through its sham annexation suggests that the Russian demands include the surrender of additional Ukrainian territory that Russian forces do not currently control up to the administrative borders of the four occupied oblasts. Calls for Ukraine's capitulation under the current circumstances of Russian control of Ukrainian territory up to the current frontline are already unacceptable from the standpoint of vital Ukrainian and Western national security interests, as ISW has previously assessed.[7] The Russian demand for an even more expansive surrender of Ukrainian-held territory that Russian forces could likely conquer only at the cost of tremendous additional blood, treasure, and time, if they can do it at all, indicates that Russia’s aims far transcend keeping the territory Russian forces have already seized. It is noteworthy, in this regard, that Russian forces continue to conduct offensive operations in eastern Kharkiv Oblast, which Russia has not claimed to have annexed, suggesting that Russia’s territorial aims may be even more expansive than those Zakharova laid out. https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-10-2023
Jimbuna
12-11-23, 01:22 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jS8dR2cXZ3w
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