Here we go again-Ukraine once again pt2 [Archive] - Page 10

Skybird

01-06-24, 05:22 PM

https://www-faz-net.translate.goog/aktuell/wirtschaft/russland-im-ukraine-krieg-putin-braucht-eine-neue-elite-19428222.html?printPagedArticle=true&_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp#pageIndex_3

She says the Russian economy will stay stable for another 1-2 years before signs for the overheating will start to nibble it kaputt, and that process again will take longer time, leads not to a sudden total collapse. I said in past posts that in the forseeable future (I had 3-4 years on mind when saying that, maybe even 5, but that needs pro-Russian optimism) the Russian economy will not be at risk of "collapsing". Lets take the average and estimate that Russia'S economy can sustain the war effort as it is for another 2-3 years, maybe longer.

I fear that is longer than Ukraine's "structural integrity" (yes, i have a fetish for this SciFi term) can endure this ammount of destruction it suffers. Last winter 50-65% of the critical infrastructure of Ukraine got destroyed, of which it was able to repair by improvisation around 15%, the Russians destroyed this winter already a bit more than the whole last winter, just that the level of Ukraine already was degraded early this winter so the damage already now must be MUCH higher, and will mount even further until end of winter season. All this in a time when Russia increases the availability of missile quantities, drones, and intensifies its attacks to destroy critical infrastructure and defence production. With Ukraine facing mounting problems with supplies granted form the West. Not good.

It would therefor be a mistake to hope that Russia's war effort will diminish due to economic fractures before Ukraine goes down the drain. It most likely will not happen this way. Chances are clearly that Ukraine runs out of breath before it could happen.

If Trump wins, it could lead to the end of NATO. Berlin is completely unprepared for this and is completely unwilling to even consider this - absolutely possible - scenario. And this while Europe clearly needs to take over the case of supporting Ukraine for the US.

Europe is totally failing. And the German and French policy-making borders active siding with and assistance for Russia. Even the US is too carefully avoiding to give Ukraine anything that could really hurt Russia'S war interest.

If the West does not dramatically increase its support for Ukraine, Russia will win.

mapuc

01-06-24, 05:39 PM

If the West does not dramatically increase its support for Ukraine, Russia will win.

As I wrote in my last post

"It's time for us in the west to take a standpoint-Whether we want Ukraine to win the war or not"

Markus

Dargo

01-06-24, 06:17 PM

mapuc

01-06-24, 06:54 PM

Most recently, the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2024, enacted on December 22, 2023, prohibits the President from unilaterally withdrawing from NATO without approval of a two-third Senate super-majority or an act of Congress. This bill was a response to Donald Trump's repeated expressions of interest in withdrawing from the organization

USA are not going to leave NATO, what I predict as some of you have too, is that they are changing their concentration to Middle East and Asia(China-Taiwan)

Markus

Skybird

01-07-24, 04:43 AM

The delivery of six (yeah, six) Danish F-16s is being delayed by at least half a year, and now is not expected before later in the summer, early Q3.

Air defence in Ukraine is running very low in SAMs. The missiles each are multiple times as expensive than most of the super-cheap rockets and drones they shoot down. A Shahed drone's price is marked between 10,000 and 50,000 coins, depending on source you ask, the SAMs Ukraine uses to bring these and other drones and flying ammunitions down cost betwen 150,000 and 500,000 coins. In words: ten to fifty thousand. Onehundredfifty to fivehundred thousand. Do the math.

Russia floods Ukrainian air space with cheap air targets that Ukraine cannot afford not to shoot down, that way Ukraine is forced to waste and empty its arsenal. Even the Gepards' ammo reserves are said to be in short supply again now.

Babble Olaf plays the same underhanded and cowardly game that he already tried with the MBTs, German news papers argue, and probably waits that once again the US steps forward so that Berlin can hide behind its big shoulders. Commentators argue that the Taurus will not be delivered before Washington delivers an equivalent, range-wise.

What Europeans do not understand obviously is this: if Ukraine falls, then it falls on the feet of Europe, not on the feet of America. Its our freedom and economic wealth that is under Russian threat, not so much America's.

Jimbuna

01-07-24, 08:13 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BRi4fUrvnAg

Jimbuna

01-07-24, 09:02 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-v44gUMLcTo

mapuc

01-07-24, 12:57 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BCZZrFnm1O0&ab_channel=CombatVeteranReacts

Markus

Jimbuna

01-07-24, 01:48 PM

This guy has more neck than a giraffe.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xLx9I6K6NsY

Dargo

01-07-24, 02:05 PM

Air power plays a comparatively limited role in the war between Russia and Ukraine. Both countries are unable to make good use of air power for offensive operations. The Ukrainians have been able to deploy their air defences incredibly well. But the Ukrainian air force, in turn, is far too weak to attack the Russian air force, with far more and better aircraft. Western warplanes will not suddenly give Ukraine the opportunity to do a major air attack on the Russians. Russian Air Force aircraft are specifically designed to defeat F-16s. So the F-16 is certainly not a wonder weapon. The fighters will likely be used largely defensively to bolster Ukraine's air defences. That doesn't mean F-16s don't have offensive potential. With targeted, well-planned attacks, the Ukrainians will certainly be effective. Think of hunting down enemy anti-aircraft systems, where F-16s can make a huge difference. Or using Western cruise missiles, where we can also think directly maritime, because the combination of the F-16 and Harpoon will suddenly make life very much more dangerous for Russian surface ships. The most important question is which variant of the AMRAAM missile Kyiv will have at its disposal: to stand up well against the combination of the Russian SU-35 and R-77-1, actually AIM120C-7/8 and ideally AIM120D/D3 should become available. This would allow the F-16 to fully hold its own in Beyond Visual Range air combat.

Outgoing Prime Minister Rutte announced at the press conference that the Netherlands still has 42 F-16s at its disposal. These cannot all go to Ukraine, according to Rutte, because some fighter jets are needed for training and others still need updates. Rutte therefore could not yet name an exact number, but said agreement has been reached on 42 steel fighter jets. "And this is just the beginning" The Netherlands is now making at least 18 F-16 fighter jets available to Ukraine. The export of military goods is subject to a licensing requirement, to prevent unwanted end use. This also applies to these F-16s. Foreign Affairs therefore tests the aircraft against the European Union's criteria for the export of arms. Based on this, the Minister of Foreign Trade and Development Cooperation decides whether to grant an export licence.

In addition to this licensing, there are a number of criteria that must be met before the devices can actually be delivered. These include, for example, trained Ukrainian personnel and suitable infrastructure in Ukraine. Before transfer to Ukraine, all aircraft are subjected to an inspection and, if necessary, modification. In addition, some of the aircraft also need major maintenance.

The Royal Air Force commissioned the F-16 in 1979 as the successor to the F-104 Starfighter, and later as the successor to the NF-5. The Air Force received the last F-16 of a total of 213 aircraft in February 1992. The service life of the F-16 was originally 20 years. Therefore, the F-16s underwent the midlife update (MLU) since 1998. It has been continuously developed since then. The modernization extends the operational, technical and economic life span by about 20 years. The update includes the replacement of many systems. For example, the F-16 MLUs received a new radar, 2 multifunction colour displays, new computers and sensors and GPS. The improved data modem (IDM) automatically projects target information from the ground onto the head up display (HUD). The MLU also enabled the use of night-vision equipment. Thanks to the further evolved hands on throttle and stick (HOTAS), most selections of radar modes, weapons, data link and EWMS can be taken without taking the hands off the throttle and stick.

For several reasons, there are limits to modernizing retention of the F-16 for the Netherlands. The F-16 is less able to cope with new conditions and threats. Spare parts are more difficult to obtain. Wear and tear is more difficult to repair, and maintenance takes more time. As a result, the deployability of the F-16 is under pressure, and it is becoming increasingly expensive to counteract operational and technical obsolescence.

Skybird

01-07-24, 04:18 PM

To me every weapon effect delivered via air is "air power", and the inability to deny the enemy the use of the sky for his military purpose and namely for the delivery of weapon effects all count as "air power" - or lack of it. Russia floods frequently Ukrainian air defences with drones and cruise missiles. It has helicopter gunships. It has CAS aircraft. All that is air power. And when I weigh the Russian options versus the Ukrainian options in all this, I must conclude that Russia has air superiority.

Several Western weapons so far have been hoped to show they were wonder weapons, miracle weapons able to influence the war. HIMARS had an effect, but the Russians learned how to minimise it. ATCAMS, Leopards and Abrams all delivered less than was hoped. Especially valuable proved to be the triple 7 artillery, the Panzerhaubitze 2000, the Bradleys, the Javelins, the German and American air defences Patriot and Iris-T. All came in way to small numbers. All run extremely low on ammo.

The F-16 is an agile and versatile fighter in the hands of a trained and experienced pilot - first Ukrainian handicap, necessarily. It needs an intense an d complicated logistics network for maintenance, second handicap. It works best if embedded in the technically interlinked environment of NATO military combat infrastructure, third handicap, and beingused embedded in combat missions according to American combat doctrine of combined arms, fourth handicap. All these handicaps do not render it useless in Ukraine, but one must warn against once again having exaggerated expectations on how they will influence the war. They will, but not to the degree some hoped for.

Two things would be more decisive. First, delivery of more quantities of smart weapons with long range, and second stopping this stupid banning of using weapon use on the territory of the aggressor, Russia. This would allow Ukraine to interdict production and logistic supply chains in Russia - and this must be done. Else Russia simpy wins by superior war production. Ukraine then would get defeated simply by inferior numbers of material. Poison the enemy's well. Russia does this with Ukrainian war production intensely, it tries to destroy it. But we tell Ukraine it shall not do that with Russian war production...? Have we lost our marbles...???

Another thing is decisive, too, and it does not directly impact on the battlefield in Ukraine. NATO states must drastically boost war production capacities, for supplying Ukraine but also for suppk,ying themselves. Heck, isnt the West supposed to be economically and regarding productivity to be hopelessly superior to Russia? How comes then that after two years we still allow them to out-produce us against the wall, so to speak...??

No, I am absolutely not satisfied with Western policies on all this. Not at all. As things stand, we too have ukrainian blood on our hands, and our self-limitation actively supports Russia's war effort. I would absolutely say our behaviour, in all its totality and material consequences, benefits Russia more than it benefits Ukraine.

Jimbuna

01-08-24, 06:47 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N0jIthQhlA0

Skybird

01-08-24, 07:06 AM

Ret. Gen. Hodges warned that a nightmare scenario of Ukraine currently becomes true. Ammo levels are at an alarmingly low level, he says.

Meanwhile a - obviously comical - German newspaper comment fantasizes about an Ukrainian breakthrough to the Asow Sea being imminent. :doh: Some ink pissers really have made a bad choice when deciding for a journalist career.

Skybird

01-08-24, 07:53 AM

The GPS signal over the Baltic Sea is being jammed. This affects an area along the Finnish coast, and around Kaliningrad (sovjet name, after a Bolshewisk leader who ordered the mass murdering of 21,000 Polish and is linked to the massacre at Katyn. The Polish name is Krolewiec, after the area was taken from the Germans who called it Königsberg), affecting both air and naval traffic, GPS navigation is not possible.

Russian aircraft and ships since long time switch off their transponders in the Baltic, too, if not always, then at least often.

Moscow has threatend a reaction to Finland for its decision to let in Americnha military presence.

Some voiced hope it would be due to to the effects form a - surprisingly selective - solar flare.

Sure, a solar flare. And I win in the lottery this weekend without even buying a ballot.

Critics warn since long that the GPS signal is very low in energy and can easily be irritated or suppressed. Russia on the other hand is world leader in electronic combat warfare and jamming technology. Nobody has as powerful jammers as the Russians. But GPS is so weak that it can be suppressed already with simple kits from every DIY store.

mapuc

01-08-24, 10:41 AM

August

01-08-24, 11:58 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DLybz6AQCXY

Jimbuna

01-08-24, 12:13 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MXxx_AKBEz0

Dargo

01-08-24, 02:05 PM

Once again Ukraine was under massive air attacks last night. More than half of the drones and missiles was downed.

Someone once wrote here that Russia had enough to conduct 2-3 massive strikes. Did this person take into account the massive military supply coming from North Korea and Iran ?

I predict massive airstrike 2-4 times per week from now on.
And with lesser military supply from the west-It doesn't look good for the Ukrainian air defence

MarkusI talked about 1 or 2 after those attacks from last year of the sort attack with around 100 missiles did not count the Iranian drones (these get downed at almost 95%) do not have the figures of North Korea missiles delivered. Russia produce about 100 various missiles per month, so Ukraine can expect these attacks a month. Of the 51 missiles that the Ukrainian Air Force said were fired at Ukraine, 18 were reportedly downed. Russia further deployed eight Iranian Shahed drones, according to Ukraine. Those were all downed, however, the Ukrainian Air Force reports. To what extent the large number of missiles that passed through air defences says anything about the state of Ukraine's air defences is not yet clear. A large number of missiles not being shot down could be an indication that Ukraine's air defences are depleted, but there could also be other reasons for the failure to shoot down Russian missiles.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nWoum_hS2Kc

Dargo

01-08-24, 03:41 PM

Putinism hides its failures just like communism
Vladimir Putin’s propaganda is bombarding the West with claims of military success in Ukraine, of Russia’s economic growth despite international sanctions, and of widespread global support for the Kremlin. In reality, Moscow’s alleged triumphs are based on the same illusions and deceptions as its failed communist past, in which the Soviet Union was supposedly destined to surpass the West. Russian leaders are trying to convince Western leaders that Ukraine is losing the war in order to terminate military assistance for Kyiv. In reality, the war is disastrous for Russia. Although the Ukrainian counteroffensive stalled in Donbas and Zaporizhzhia for the winter, after defeating Russian forces in Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Kherson, the Russian army is being decimated, and its navy has been pushed back from the western part of the Black Sea. During two years of combat, Russia has lost at least 315,000 killed or severely wounded, from a ground force of some 360,000 that invaded Ukraine. It has also sustained huge losses in equipment, including 2,200 out of some 3,500 tanks and a third of its armored vehicles.

Despite Kremlin claims of invincibility, Russia’s resources are limited and shrinking. It has lost a substantial part of its officer corps and has recruited prisoners and foreign mercenaries for the Ukrainian front. Its weapons supplies are declining because production capacities are overstretched with increasing reliance on old Soviet equipment, imported drones from Iran, and shells and ammunition from North Korea. Until it receives new supplies of weapons and ammunition, Ukraine has temporarily switched its operations from offense to attritional defense in order to kill the maximum number of Russian soldiers. Russia cannot sustain the kinds of losses it is experiencing in the battle over Avdiivka, where about 40,000 recruits have perished in the past three months. Ukraine does not need to launch a major counteroffensive to regain territory but simply to maximize Russian losses until the occupation becomes untenable. Increased supplies of artillery shells for Kyiv will multiply Russian casualties, while long-range rocketry and fighter jets will help destroy Russia’s logistical chains.

Much like their communist predecessors, Moscow’s current rulers also claim that Russia’s economy is growing. In reality, GDP growth in 2023 has only been sustained through massive infusions of cash into the military-industrial sector. The rest of the economy is sinking, shortages are spreading, infrastructure is collapsing, and inflation is rampant. The Kremlin’s war economy is not supportable in the longer term and cannot provide economic growth, especially as Western sanctions are tightening, its military products are demolished in Ukraine, and fewer workers will be available because of war losses and the mass exodus of young Russians. In sum, Russia has little prospect of economic development and is facing increasing social unrest.

Similarly to the communists, the Putinists assert that most of the world supports them against American imperialism and its alleged lackies in Ukraine. But despite a massive disinformation campaign over the past two years, Russia can only rely on a handful of allies, such as Tehran and Pyongyang, and a few unreliable partners in South America and Africa who are mostly bribed by Moscow in exchange for their international support. The Kremlin has lost much of its influence even outside Europe and North America, and its former satellites in Central Asia and the Caucasus are asserting their independence from Moscow. As Russia weakens militarily and economically, its global position will further shrink, with an increasing number of Russians now fearful that it will simply become China’s “younger brother” or will need to surrender its eastern regions to Beijing. Russian imperialism, much like Soviet communism, will collapse when its delusional lies can no longer disguise harsh reality. https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/2789414/putinism-hides-its-failures-just-like-communism/

Dargo

01-08-24, 04:51 PM

Scholz urges EU allies to ramp up military aid for Ukraine
“I call on allies in the European Union to strengthen their efforts regarding Ukraine. The planned weapons deliveries to Ukraine of most EU member states are not enough,” German Chancellor said. https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/01/08/scholz-urges-eu-allies-to-ramp-up-military-aid-for-ukraine/?swcfpc=1

Suggest those other EU countries to demand the Taurus KEPD 350 first, a lot of smaller countries give more in % of their GDP than Germany. Germany is not even in the top 10 those are the smaller EU members. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1303450/bilateral-aid-to-ukraine-in-a-percent-of-donor-gdp/

Jimbuna

01-09-24, 07:17 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AG-r2XvRaEI

Jimbuna

01-09-24, 07:44 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w7NWUkDQZ54

Skybird

01-09-24, 08:35 AM

https://www-focus-de.translate.goog/politik/ausland/gastbeitrag-von-gabor-steingart-neben-der-ukraine-ist-deutschland-der-groesste-verlierer-des-krieges_id_259559223.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp

As a result of the war in Ukraine, Germany is losing security, prosperity and reputation in the world. We should prepare for life without the American guardian and rethink our foreign and security policy. (...) The necessary rearmament means an intensification of the distribution conflicts within Germany. It is difficult to imagine the expansion of defense spending and the preservation of the status quo in the welfare state at the same time.

mapuc

01-09-24, 11:31 AM

Skybird

01-09-24, 12:33 PM

My belief in Germany is falling apart.
What took you so long? :D

Jimbuna

01-09-24, 02:06 PM

My belief in Germany is falling apart.

In books(mostly Tom Clancy's)and in other material I have learned that Germany was the backbone in the European part of NATO.

Markus

Not sure what gave you that idea :hmmm:

Catfish

01-09-24, 04:59 PM

Not sure what gave you that idea :hmmm:
^^ Tom Clancy, obviously.

Germany is the second in financial and military help after the US, and when you think about the last decades' policy with Merkel as Putin's friend it makes one wonder how Germany can even shoulder this now. Scholz cannot supply weapons he doesn't have. The west has not yet realized that it has to switch to war economy, and this includes ALL the West, with the UK, with the USA.
Ok so no one thought that there could be war in Europe again, just of all by russian aggression. So Putin lied and our politicians rode the dirty road until there was no doubt left. We thought we were safe, it will not happen again.

Oh no! Anyway ..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EdfociX1egk

Skybird

01-09-24, 06:24 PM

No, Catfish, that I do not believe anymore, and it has been shown to be wrong: Germany may be the second biggest financial donor in Europe, yes, but the claim that it is the second biggest military donor as well behind the US, meanwhile has been shown to be drivel, and not even the Kieler Institut für Weltwirtschaft on whose numbers this claim bases, can keep them up anymore. Plans for future spendings over the coming years, and unfulfilled promises for the present as well as Scholz' intentionally misleading statements, led to this messy situation, future plans and ideas all were counted as already completed military donations. But not even the chancellor'S office seriously defends these claims anymore, I red some time ago: I think I already posted on this and gave a link to the story one or two weeks ago.

So, the Kieler Institute added together the already completed contributions, the delayed contributions not yet done, and also the just planned, announced, intended future contributions of uncertain reliability (Zeitenwende, special budget for the BW anymone...?) , and this total net account for long time was presented by Kiel to be the already made and completed German contributions. But: its not true.

Catfish

01-09-24, 06:44 PM

Germany remains the second in financial support for Ukraine, while it CANNOT(!) provide more military help due to the misguided politics of the last decades.
Related to it military stock and production just percent-wise Germany has provided even more than the UK. This point is mute of course because we cannot provide the numbers, but there is no possibility to give more for sheer lack of equipment.
And then then we have the far Left with Wagenknecht trying to block this, and the far Right who want to join Putin.
F. them.
From Rheinmetall to Thyssen Krupp, Kraus-Maffei Wegmann to Diehl, MTU, MBDA, Jenoptik etc. there is not one company who is not politically told to make up for the losses (too late of course).
But it takes TIME, and this is what we need for preparing against Putin's next aggression against all of Europe. We know what Putin says, what Mad-yedyev says, what Putin's media force perpetrate onto the russian people 27/7, daily. This is a preparation for the big one, Putin's war with or without nuclear arms.

Germany has no nuclear weapons, France is wavering, the US is an insecure candidate even with all this official assurance of helping Ukraine and involving NATO in case of an attack against western Europe (whoever believes that after Trump)
So tell me what you would do right now, after this decade-long denial of reality? Perform some magic?

Skybird

01-09-24, 08:05 PM

I complained about these things often enough, too, Catfish. I just say that the often repeatede claim that Germany is the second biggest provider of military equipment and weapons (I fell for that lie, too) after the US, is not true, but is improper adding-up of completed deeds and announcements for future deeds (that to pay for and thus to materialise I think is anything but certain).

Like Bubble Olaf talked of a Zeitenwende and a rise of the defence budget to 2% regularly, and additional to that 2% a special budget of 100 billion. What is left of that? The budget is now being abused for pushing the defence budget to 2%, no talk anymore of the special budget being an additional thing to a defence budget rise. In fact they wasted 12-13 billion already to inflation effects by not even touching the special budget in the first year. And even now they cannot manage to get it paid out, or called up, or the defence quote being raised as claimed. Loosers.

The Zeitenwende - has completely collapsed. It gets now feasted on by bureaucrats vaporizing it for the most.

I tell you something, Catfish - they will not even keep the planned number of F-35s. I have doubts anyway that we can properly maintain and supply them. German Starfighter debacle, anyone? Too many airplanes. Too few service personnel. As a result the planes did not stop to fall down from the sky.

What does it tell us that just short time ago the defence ministry has placed an order for 100,000 hand grenades - that is the number given to Ukraine, but no additonal grenades got ordered? That only those 18 tanks given to Ukraine will be replaced (in some years...), but no more additional tanks to boost their numbers beyond the original number? That only replacements for the given PZH2000 have been ordered (in some years...), but not more beyond their original number? That Pistorius said he wants to send a heavy brigade fully equipped to Lithuania, but says not one word on where to get the soldiers, the equipment, the additional tanks and vehicles - while his general inspector just days ago warned of that this would need to be done then by cannibalising the existing units in Germany, which would reduce their material combat readiness from maybe 60% to then 50%?

I'm on your side, Catfish. All i said was that the often repeated media claim you brought up is basing on erratic statistics, and in this way it is stated simply is not true.

Jimbuna

01-10-24, 11:28 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3hZpIso42Ew

Jimbuna

01-10-24, 11:37 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7DlG9rkgXu0

Dargo

01-10-24, 12:11 PM

We will not supply anything at all if it is contrary to our interests, no gas, no oil, no coal, no fuel oil, nothing. You’ll freeze freeze Europa.In the meantime in Russia :D.

PODOLSK, Moscow region – Residents throughout Russia affected by unprecedented winter heating outages in recent days have expressed their frustration and urged local authorities to restore heating in their homes. In Podolsk, a town some 30 kilometers south of the capital Moscow, at least 149,000 residents — nearly half of its population — were left without heating when a heating main burst at a nearby private ammunition plant.

“It’s a total disgrace. There is no heating and no hot water. We have to sleep in sleeping bags,” Yuri, a local resident, told The Moscow Times. “I have no words to describe how bad the situation is," said Yuri, who declined to provide his surname. "We have had no heating for almost six days." Heating issues have affected residents in the Moscow region, where temperatures have plunged to as low as minus 20 degrees Celsius in the past week, as well as people in the Far East Primorye region, the cities of Moscow and St. Petersburg, Penza, the southern Voronezh and Volgograd regions and more.

In the Tver region, a group of residents filmed an appeal to President Vladimir Putin, saying that they “are freezing from the cold” in the village of Novozavidovsky. “We're literally being killed by the cold,” a woman in the video said, adding that they have been sending requests to local authorities since September after their houses were connected to a boiler room whose power was reportedly insufficient. “This is some kind of torture and extermination of the population 100 kilometers from Moscow,” she added. https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024/01/10/total-disgrace-anger-frustration-as-mass-heating-failures-across-russia-leave-thousands-in-the-cold-a83676

The $15 billion Putin spent trying to destroy Ukraine this month sure would've come in handy to make sure the city of Omsk had electricity in -30 degree weather.

Jimbuna

01-11-24, 06:50 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yT1SHXJF1O0

Skybird

01-11-24, 07:31 AM

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/01/11/world/ukraine-air-defenses-russia-drones-tactics-intl-cmd/index.html

(...) The latest string of Russian attacks was “very well planned,” Oleksiy Melnyk, co-director of international security programs at the Kyiv-based Razumkov Center think tank, told CNN.

The deadly strikes were preceded by flocks of drones and individual missiles along different routes,pawns sacrificed to map Ukrainian defenses and weak spots, he said.

“It is defense industry facilities that are targeted now. And though it is not officially admitted, a substantial share of these missiles reached their targets,” he said, also noting that the effectiveness of each interceptor missile fired at incoming Russian projectiles is high.

The Ukrainian air defense is working “at the edge of its capacity,” Melnyk said, often hitting more than 70% of its targets and sometimes all of them.

Stopping more missiles would require more interceptor missile batteries, which Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Wednesday his country is “sorely lacking.” Ukraine is currently unable to produce modern air defense systems with its partners, he said.

But in order to stem the tide of Russian fire, Ukraine needs to target Moscow’s batteries across the border – a tough challenge, given Kyiv’s limited access to long-range missiles or artillery systems of its own.
“Russia is learning its lessons,” Melnyk said, sending missilesto where it knew they could not be intercepted. (...)

Jimbuna

01-11-24, 07:31 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0RkznQAAhgA

Skybird

01-11-24, 10:26 AM

https://www-bundesheer-at.translate.goog/aktuelles/detail/katerstimmung-fuer-die-ukraine-eine-lagebeurteilung-von-oberst-markus-reisner?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp (https://www-bundesheer-at.translate.goog/aktuelles/detail/katerstimmung-fuer-die-ukraine-eine-lagebeurteilung-von-oberst-markus-reisner?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp)

Deeply true. The fact remains that for me regarding this war the man is by far the most potent analyst and commentator with a media presence. Not just being a professional soldier and commander, he also has a degree in history. Maybe thats why.

Dargo

01-11-24, 01:06 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6x2j3zqlqyo

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zWSa4CkW9eI

About the war in Ukraine with Dr Matthew Ford Matthew is a research associate at the University of Sussex and associate professor at the Swedish defence University Matthew is also the co-author of the book radical war and specializes in the data saturated battlefields of the 21st century

Jimbuna

01-11-24, 02:18 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ed4iO1ucP8

Dargo

01-11-24, 02:24 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xkFfzO6KEJQ

German Aid to Ukraine (https://twitter.com/deaidua)
https://deaidua.org/en/

mapuc

01-11-24, 04:38 PM

Dargo

01-11-24, 04:46 PM

What is the real truth !?-Is Russian soldier being send into a meat grinder or
what ?

I myself choose to believe this is the case, that they are send into a meat grinder, However how truthful is it ?

What about the Russian military have they lost confident in winning the war ?
(Some of my friends says that Ukraine can't win I answer with - Neither can Russia)

MarkusThis Russian winter offensive is an inch by inch offensive, this says it all, Ukraine has dug itself in retreat to better defensive positions. With this weather (frost) you would expect a mobile offensive but that they can not organize after Bakhmut Russia is not able to muster a good army to conduct this kinda manoeuvres. In WWI and WWII German military command knew they could not win, I suspect Russian military command knows this also. But like in Germany, their leader still dreams of victory and their own survival depends on a win for them, there is no other way. If Russia had only done the defence in 2023 to build up a new big good prepared offensive in spring 2024 that they waisted by sending waves of soldiers and armour undefended to a certain destruction reports are that there are 500k Russian in Ukraine with this number they still fail and will fail in 2024.

Skybird

01-12-24, 04:05 AM

^

Same must be said about Ukraine. The offensive has stalled. A new one not in sight this year, they will most likely spend all year hunkering down. They dug themselves in, so did the Russians. They straighten the frontlines to be able to defend them. Ukraine too was not able to conduct huge formation manouvering warfare. Its written that the Ukrainian line troops have started to become quite sober about the Ukrainian chances, the early optimism has long since gone. Realistic disillusionment is spreading. Selenski has changed in the attitude he "radiates" around him, to me he looks differenbt now than one year ago, its becoming more clear when watching and listening to him that he has become somewhat less "enthusiastic, more reflective, gloomy, introvberted to some degree. He is obviously desperate to get more weapons from the West, but doesnt get them, not to mention: in the demanded quantity.

You present the Russian losses as evidence of their failure. But thats the way Sovjet doctrine works. Accept the losses - push on. The producing defence industry and the critical infrastructure of Ukraine already now is severly more degraded than it was last year at this time. Ukraine slowly gets worn out. It gets snuggled on by an anaconda. Russia chews on it like on tough gristle, but it keeps on chewing - and there is no sign at all that it will spit it out again.

Putin sees that the West has become fractured, impatient, and hesitent to pay more, and that military support is waning, and doubt is rising, so is civial oppsoition in Western states to a policy of support. He also sees that the West refuses with great determination to deliver what Ukraine would originally need to survive and be victorious in defending its territorial integrity. And he knows that there will be elections in the US, and that at least until then and probably beyond that date the US will be a non-actor on Ukraine and on support for it. I do not really believe it, but if there is a chance, even a small chance, Putin could consider his course in this war, then this will not be before the US elections and Trump not having won. And even a democratic president after the election agony (which I assume will last for months and months after the election) might be faced with a Trumpist-dominated Congress or Senate blocking him.

Some of you guys still underestimate the Russians. I have no clue how this mistake can so stubbornly persist. The Russians need not higher quality. They have what they need: higher numbers, en masse. Wring your hands, roll our eyes, but they continue showing up with them superior numbers despite your explanations that they could not - they do nevertheless. From Putin'S POV, he simply has to hang on - nothign more. He is convionced that he has the longe rbretah and cna outlast Ukraine and the West.

And with every day passing, a bit more of Ukraine's industry and infrasstructure and survivability gets destroyed. While the Russian system stays unaffected - Western leaders make sure Ukraine cannot reach it. One day maybe they will give Ukraine Taurus and stuff like that. But then like with the ATACMS: only a very low number not to spike too much anger in Russian government.

With every day, Ukraine'S survivability gets by net effect destroyed a bit more. There is more damage done every day than the Ukraine can repair or compensate. Do the math.

If we were honest, we would either throw everythign we can at Ukraione - or tell it it is on its own and better starts facing the bitter reality. What we do now - letting them bleed while pouring sweet words in their ears but not doing what is needed - , is the foulest of all actions we could show up with. We have blood on our hands this way.

Again, this essay:
https://www-bundesheer-at.translate.goog/aktuelles/detail/katerstimmung-fuer-die-ukraine-eine-lagebeurteilung-von-oberst-markus-reisner?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp

The way we behave now and the way things are now, Ukraine cannot win the war and in the long run cannot even survive the war.

The good thing in that would be that then Europe must not invest hundreds of billions to rebuild it. Maintaining it would be a burden on the Russians.

And from my post here: https://www.subsim.com/radioroom/showpost.php?p=2898659&postcount=2284, these paragraphs:
---------------------
In his autobiography "History of a German", Sebastian Haffner describes how, as a ten-year-old during the First World War, he eagerly awaited the final victory of the German troops - "in a dream world of the great game".

He walked to the police station every day to read the Supreme Army Command's victory announcements as a serialized novel on the notice board. "I had no idea what the end of the war would look like without a final victory."

That was to change a little later. On November 9 and 10, 1918, there are still army reports in the usual style, writes Haffner: "Enemy breakthrough attempts rebuffed."

But on November 11, there is no longer a report from the army command on the bulletin board. Haffner can't believe it: "The board yawned at me, empty and black."

In a daze, the ten-year-old drifts through the streets in the drizzle of November until he finally comes across a crowd of people in front of a newspaper kiosk. In the early edition of a newspaper, he reads the words he is not prepared for: "Ceasefire signed."
Beneath it was a long list of the conditions for this armistice, which in reality amounted to an unconditional surrender. Haffner reads, and as he reads, he freezes: "That something like this could happen to us. And not as an incident, but as the end result of nothing but victories and victories. My head couldn't grasp it. The whole world had become strange and scary to me."

Today's Germany could soon face a similar fate.
--------------------
This thread sometimes reminds me of that.

Jimbuna

01-12-24, 05:29 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p-MM4Imhf_s

Jimbuna

01-12-24, 08:46 AM

Britain to increase Ukraine support to £2.5bn, Rishi Sunak announces

The UK will provide £2.5bn of military aid to Ukraine over the coming year, Rishi Sunak has said - Britain's largest annual commitment since Russia's invasion.

The PM made the announcement during a rare visit to the country, where he will also sign a new agreement supporting its long-term security.

Officials said the package will provide Ukraine with long-range missiles, air defence and artillery shells.

Some £200m will be spent on drones, most of which will be UK-made.

Officials said the military package - for the next financial year beginning in April - would result in the largest delivery of drones to Ukraine by any country.

Significantly, the prime minister has decided not to make a financial commitment lasting several years.

Some ministers and senior military figures had argued privately this would send a stronger signal to Moscow of Britain's long-term support.

Instead, Mr Sunak has chosen to spend £200m more than the last two years, when the UK's annual military commitment to Ukraine was worth £2.3bn.

Downing Street said the package of support would form the first step in what it called "an unshakeable hundred-year partnership between Ukraine and the UK".

It will also include £18m for humanitarian aid, help fortifying Ukraine's energy infrastructure and more funding for online English language training.

Armed Forces Minister James Heappey told BBC Breakfast the drones will give Ukraine an advantage over the coming years.

He said: "They are drones that are being developed at pace, learning all of the lessons from what we've seen in Ukraine over the last two years."

He added the funding shows the UK is maintaining its leadership position in Europe as the second-biggest donor to Ukraine.

Mr Sunak, who last visited Ukraine 15 months ago in November 2022, said: "I am here today with one message: the UK will also not falter. We will stand with Ukraine in their darkest hours and in better times to come."

He added: "The UK is already one of Ukraine's closest partners, because we recognise their security is our security.

"Today we are going further, increasing our military aid, delivering thousands of cutting-edge drones and signing a historic new security agreement to provide Ukraine with the assurances it needs for the long term.

"For two years, Ukraine has fought with great courage to repel a brutal Russian invasion. They are still fighting, unfaltering in their determination to defend their country and defend the principles of freedom and democracy."

The UK commitment comes after months of pressure from MPs, who argued the government should have given Ukraine greater clarity much earlier so it could develop its military planning.

It also comes as both the United States and the European Union struggle to agree their own packages of support, with Ukraine in desperate need of more shells and missiles.

In the US, Republicans are blocking a $60bn (£47bn) package of support for Ukraine in an attempt to increase spending on tackling migration along America's southern border.

And in the EU, Hungary's prime minister, Viktor Orban, has blocked a €50bn (£43bn) support package for Ukraine in a funding row with Brussels.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-67954152

mapuc

01-12-24, 01:29 PM

Some input to your comments.

Nor can Russia win the war-This stalemate will continue the next couple of years. With huge losses on both side, which in the end will force one of the side to demand a ceasefire

£2.5bn Have a feeling it's far from enough.

Markus

Jimbuna

01-12-24, 01:30 PM

Only bettered by the US and in the past as far as I'm aware.

Dargo

01-12-24, 03:45 PM

The German government spent (2023) an additional 3.2 billion euros in military aid to Ukraine. In the coming years, until 2032, an additional 8.8 billion euros will be set aside for this purpose. The Netherlands now provided €2.63 billion in military support to Ukraine (as of Dec. 4, 2023). The support consists of: Direct delivery: equipment worth €1.10 billion was delivered to Ukraine from its own military stocks. For 2024, the Dutch government has set aside over €2 billion. Believe Denmark give about the same or more other Scandinavian countries are of the same level. French military aid to Ukraine, estimated at €3.2 billion Ukraine will still get its €50 billion aid package with or without the backing of Hungary from the EU. The UK aid of £2.5bn to Ukraine in 2024-2025 an increase of £200m on the previous two years while other smaller countries give this yearly.

mapuc

01-12-24, 06:36 PM

Looks like a part of the weapons who have been send to Ukraine has disappeared

The investigators in the Ministry of Defense have examined 39,139 weapons that the US has sent to the front in Ukraine since the invasion, worth around 6.8 billion kroner.

https://ekstrabladet-dk.translate.goog/nyheder/krigogkatastrofer/fra-usa-til-ukraine-vaaben-for-flere-milliarder-forsvundet/10089925?_x_tr_sl=da&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=da&_x_tr_pto=wapp

https://media.defense.gov/2024/Jan/11/2003374323/-1/-1/1/DODIG-2024-043-EEMU_REDACTED%20SECURE.PDF

Markus

Dargo

01-12-24, 07:00 PM

Looks like a part of the weapons who have been send to Ukraine has disappeared

https://ekstrabladet-dk.translate.goog/nyheder/krigogkatastrofer/fra-usa-til-ukraine-vaaben-for-flere-milliarder-forsvundet/10089925?_x_tr_sl=da&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=da&_x_tr_pto=wapp

https://media.defense.gov/2024/Jan/11/2003374323/-1/-1/1/DODIG-2024-043-EEMU_REDACTED%20SECURE.PDF

MarkusDo not think you can conclude they "disappeared" more they could not be tracked, this does not mean they never arrived.

Skybird

01-12-24, 07:38 PM

Corruption still is much alive in Ukraine. Some weapons by the West have travelled the wrong, dark channels for sure. It was to be expected. Keep the quota low and make sure no critical stuff ends up in the wrong hands.

And shoot the offenders if you catch them.

Dargo

01-12-24, 07:49 PM

U.S. officials have not properly tracked military aid for Ukraine, according to a new report from the U.S. Department of Defense, The New York Times reported on Jan. 11. The Pentagon has no evidence, however, that any weapons for the Ukrainian Armed Forces have been used inappropriately.

Jimbuna

01-13-24, 06:38 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zzH2cr7a7Uc

Jimbuna

01-13-24, 06:59 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_mt-coRm5rI

Skybird

01-13-24, 08:10 AM

^ Victory is near...! Once again...!!!
-------------------
[/URL][URL]https://www.nzz.ch/feuilleton/der-ukraine-fehlt-es-an-maennern-die-kaempfen-wollen-ld.1773668?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp (https://www.nzz.ch/feuilleton/der-ukraine-fehlt-es-an-maennern-die-kaempfen-wollen-ld.1773668?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp)

Tja. I am divided over this problem. I think it depends on whether the person feels a loving commitment to the country in their heart and mind or not. One person feels patriotic love of country, the other does not. Thats how it is. Where it is given, and all the more so where one allows oneself to be cared for, getting pampered by the country of residence, the exercise of such rights also results in a moral imperative not to shirk obligations in times of need. Those who do not claim such state and national benefits and feel no solidarity with their place of residence, lack this sense of home, which is a prerequisite for showing a willingness to sacrifice for one's homeland, and nothing can be done to change this by state force.

What would I do? Would I go to war "for Germany"? No, you can easily see from the years of critical postings I have written about Germany how angry and frustrated I am with this self-destructive country and its neurotically compulsive population. I have repeatedly described myself as an alien who has crashed on an alien planet, and that is true. But there are a small - and ever-shrinking - handful of people who are close to me, to whom I am unconditionally loyal, and for whom I have already made sacrifices, and for whom I would put my life on the line. This is quite different from putting oneself on service for ideological delusions that are politically dictated by the EU, by political parties or by the German government, to "to protect a country" that one ultimately despises. And often these claims raised border rightout lies.

As I said in the beginning, I am deeply divided over this problem. Its a dilemma. And a dilemma is characterised by the fact that there is no real satisfying solution to it. And, like every human, once brutal violence like this hits you right into the face, I and we all may under the pressure of the situation unfolding react totally differently than we previously assumed we would, or claimed we would. I have seen the consequences of war in place, and I was confronted to defend myself against criminals and street crime with force, so that gives me an empirically validated idea of how I tick in that sort of situation. But military combat I never needed to face and conduct myself. Thankfully. And a battlefield is not the same like the scene of attempted street robbery. Its miles apart.

So in the end I am honest enough to admit: I have no clue what I really would do if I were in their place. I think nobody who has not experienced battle himself can know in advance.

If - God forbid - you find yourself in this decision-making situation, you will find out soon enough. Until then, it is best not to judge others, lest you be judged.
-----------
BTW, I am close to getting 57, and have knee problems, I used to be lean and "zäh" (tough), now have much less of lean muscles and am a bit more well-rounded and am out of training and have no physical stamina worth to be mentioned. I could not do these things anymore even if I would want to. I am metabolically healthy, and thats it, but that does not give you strength in muscle power, breath and enduring stamina.

mapuc

01-13-24, 11:02 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MPchStVpKZ4&ab_channel=CombatVeteranReacts

Markus

Dargo

01-13-24, 12:04 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ftXtH-HUDro

Jimbuna

01-13-24, 12:04 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfQVTA75PCc

Dargo

01-13-24, 12:29 PM

Two M2A2 Bradley IFVs of the 47th mechanized brigade (trained by NATO instructors) fighting against a Russian T-90M 'Breaktrough' tank in Stepove, north of Avdiivka. The Bradley's immobilized the tank after which an FPV drone finished off the tank. The crew ran off. Video on X https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1746149986188882246 That is how you win, not by meat waves or steamroller artillery

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_sdWmBDkAMs

"This is a place where one could go crazy. It's so disgusting. There's another one here, and his head was torn off. I hope the same thing will not happen to us and that we will return home," says the kadyrovite. In this footage, the kadyrovite describes the state of affairs at the front: the soldiers of Putin's army are starving, drinking water from a puddle and suffering huge losses. As the author of the video himself admits, Russians are simply sitting in dugouts and are afraid to come out. And a short time later there was a message about Hamzat's serious injury and his coma. Video on X https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1745816391154843930 Half of the battalion refuse to fight Russia can have the numbers but when 50% refuses you can only send them by gunpoint that is gone to happen the "political commissar" and SMERSH reappears.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J4BCRi9QmLE

Warehouse wherehouse Washouse

Russian doctrine: ...like oh what should we do ... oh you know what would work what we tried in Bakhmut yeah but wasn't that like a massive failure resulting in a coup yeah, but you know it's different time now isn't it is different place try it again oh it's even worse oh brilliant let's try that sink in you know what we did in Avdiivka, in Vuhledar and in trying to cross the Donetsk river oh yeah what we lost like hundreds and hundreds of pieces of vehicle and thousands troops yeah yeah yeah let's try that but this time you love this, this time in Krinky all right yeah it might work because it begins with a K yeah yeah yeah exactly. The only conclusion you can derive from the evidence that we are seeing is that the Russians are not able to adequately learn and adapt in what they're doing they are adapting in certain areas like drone usage (also not 100% there are areas on the front where Ukraine is drone boss) and technology but in terms of just on the battlefield tactics there is an awful lot of doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different result. What Russia could directly out of stock is gone, what they produce is getting destroyed monthly this for about 5 months, what they get from North Korea is not secure to use and all those millions of shells from the past had little results Iran drones are not that good and mostly get shoot down. The longer this goes on, the worse it will get for a pariah with pariah friends that can not bring the stuff to the table for a victory. Ukraine destroys 90% of every heavy equipment the Russians send towards the front line, according to Russian bloggers.

Russia's winter offensive, a massive failure so far? After 3 months it seems that Russia's winter offensive is showing the first clear signs of stagnation, fatigue, and we can say that at least temporarily has run out of steam. No significant advances from the Russian side for the past 2-3 weeks, while as many Russian sources on telegram admit, Ukrainians have begun to push them back in Kupyansk and Robotyne fronts after ousting them from the outskirts of Novomykhailivka, Donetsk front during the previous week.

In contrast, Ukraine's summer offensive which took place during June-September (approx. 4 months) in 2023 was considered a huge failure by the Russian and Russo-neutral sources but on the other hand after 3 months of full-scale offensive the Russians haven't completed their goal of taking Avdiivka yet and the territorial gains made all over the frontline are roughly no more than 30-40% of those made by Ukraine during 4 months of their offensive in summer 2023. How is Ukraine's offensive a huge failure but the Russian offensive so far is being considered a success?

Today many sources are reporting that Russians were pushed back in Kupyansk front and south of Robotyne. Previously Russian forces were repelled near Novomykhailivka and Terny. https://twitter.com/MilitaryLabb/status/1745815483360669889

We see the Russian now bombing (Avdiivka) on large scale. Russia resort to these sorts of large-scale bombing campaigns when they don't have the forces to attack on the ground because they didn't have the forces on the ground to successfully assault. We've also seen these sorts of bombing and shelling campaigns mark kind of the end of an offensive period where they will then transition to a more attritional phase where they try to destroy all the defensive fortifications etc.

mapuc

01-13-24, 04:31 PM

Dargo

01-13-24, 04:50 PM

^ And Ukraine does not have the strength to push through the Russian defenses.

It is as some of you mentioned before-World War 1 over again in modern version.

Even if Ukraine should get a lot more military supply it would not be enough. They lack manpower-Around 500.000 men.

MarkusThis is not World War 1 Ukraine is in active defence that means they will do offensive operations (not allowing Putin a victory is also a win in the long term for Ukraine) if opportunity is there, what Ukraine lack in manpower it will need in precision (even with todays' shortages Ukraine attrite the Russian army in large). Like we NATO do not have/had the manpower and never had the huge amount of equipment, we build up better and precise equipment to counter Russia. We and Ukraine are better trained and lead than the Kremlin led army structure only Stalin let his generals free hand to a certain point and for a short period the winter war (Finland) or first year of Operation Barbosa is an example if you let politicians do wars nowadays Putin decides military and the command structure of the Russian army is one of its failures.

mapuc

01-13-24, 05:11 PM

This is not World War 1 Ukraine is in active defence that means they will do offensive operations (not allowing Putin a victory is also a win in the long term for Ukraine) if opportunity is there, what Ukraine lack in manpower it will need in precision. Like we NATO do not have/had the manpower and never had the huge amount of equipment, we build up better and precise equipment to counter Russia. We and Ukraine are better trained and lead than the Kremlin led army structure only Stalin let his generals free hand to a certain point and for a short period the winter war (Finland) or first year of Operation Barbosa is an example if you let politicians do wars nowadays Putin decides military and the command structure of the Russian army is one of its failures.

I'm sorry but I can't see any of them win this war within foreseeable future.

Ukraine may be better in destroying Russian materials and kill thousands of soldiers due to the Russian military doctrine. Russia has an almost inexhaustible resources of men and material.

10.000 men lost is just statistic for the Russian, for the Ukrainian it would mean disaster.

This mean Russia does not have the skills to make a push through.

Markus

Dargo

01-13-24, 05:39 PM

I'm sorry but I can't see any of them win this war within foreseeable future.

Ukraine may be better in destroying Russian materials and kill thousands of soldiers due to the Russian military doctrine. Russia has an almost inexhaustible resources of men and material.

10.000 men lost is just statistic for the Russian, for the Ukrainian it would mean disaster.

This mean Russia does not have the skills to make a push through.

MarkusRussia has no inexhaustible resources of men and material, what it builds up in +70 years is gone what is left is cannibalized or so bad it can not be used another thing if this was so big why would they import all that shells and barrels. Russian inexhaustible stock is a fairy tail Russia men lost can be a statistic, but those lose will have an effect on his production war production or normal production it will hurt Russia does not have a gulag in size as in WWII and that it is not called a general mobilisation tells they are not only statistics yeah the poor are but not the Moscow and St Petersburg regions not even a dictator needs to keep the nomenklatura and these regions happy else it could go wrong.

Russia was short of around 4.8 million workers in 2023 and the problem will remain acute in 2024 Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina said last month that Russia's depleted labour force was causing acute labour shortages and threatening economic growth as Moscow pumps fiscal and physical resources into the military. Hundreds of thousands of Russians left the country following what the Kremlin calls its special military operation in Ukraine which began in February 2022, including highly-qualified IT specialists. The outflows intensified after President Vladimir Putin, who earlier this month lauded a historically low jobless rate of 2.9%, announced a partial military mobilisation of around 300,000 recruits in September 2022. The number of vacancies in the total workforce rose to 6.8% by the middle of 2023, up from 5.8% a year earlier If we extend the data presented by Rosstat (the official statistics agency) to the entire workforce, the shortage of workers in 2023 will tentatively amount to 4.8 million people. It noted that Labour Minister Anton Kotyakov had said that workforce shortages were felt hard in the manufacturing, construction and transportation sectors, forcing companies to raise wages to try to attract more employees. Tatyana Zakharova of Russia's University of Economics "the labour shortages would probably persist next year, as vacancies for factory workers, engineers, doctors, teachers and other professions would be especially hard to fill." She cited poor demographics and "the migration of the population" as among the reasons for the labour shortages.

Economics and war are one you need labour to run war production on top of domestic production, if you have a shortage there you have a shortage of men to call up because these are the age you want in an army. You can send your labour force to the front, but they will not come back, so either destroy your economy or get a way out of your war. In Ukraine there are more than 500,000 Russian men that can not win you really think a couple of hundred thousands can to be victorious Putin needs to conquer a thousand square kilometres it now moves forward inch by inch in a year.

mapuc

01-13-24, 05:39 PM

The air defense Ukraine got from us isn't 100 % Effective

- The statistics for the night's attacks show that Ukraine needs more missile defense systems. It only succeeded in shooting down 8 out of 37 incoming missiles, says Claus Borg Reinholdt.

https://nyheder-tv2-dk.translate.goog/udland/2024-01-13-rusland-rammer-alle-maal-og-det-udstiller-ukrainsk-problem-siger-korrespondent?_x_tr_sl=da&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=da&_x_tr_pto=wapp

Secondly it hasn't gone a month since the last massive air attack on Ukraine.

Markus

mapuc

01-13-24, 05:48 PM

Russia has no inexhaustible resources of men and material, what it builds up in +70 years is gone what is left is cannibalized or so bad it can not be used another thing if this was so big why would they import all that shells and barrels. Russian inexhaustible stock is a fairy tail Russia men lost can be a statistic, but those lose will have an effect on his production war production or normal production it will hurt Russia does not have a gulag in size as in WWII and that it is not called a general mobilisation tells they are not only statistics yeah the poor are but not the Moscow and St Petersburg regions not even a dictator needs to keep the nomenklatura and these regions happy else it could go wrong.

I'm not saying you're wrong when it comes to how Russian soldiers are being treated and how they feel What I said was.

Russia has ALMOST inexhaustible resources of men and material

Can't remember who once wrote that Russian has converted its factories to weapons production While military targets in Ukraine is getting destroyed.
While the West doesn't want to convert its factory

Markus

Dargo

01-13-24, 06:40 PM

I'm not saying you're wrong when it comes to how Russian soldiers are being treated and how they feel What I said was.

Russia has ALMOST inexhaustible resources of men and material

Can't remember who once wrote that Russian has converted its factories to weapons production While military targets in Ukraine is getting destroyed.
While the West doesn't want to convert its factory

MarkusConverting normal factories is a fairy tail modern amour, missiles and planes can not be build in a tractor factory same goes for the workforce you need trained personnel this is no T34 that you build. Converting a factory means also no domestic production if people can not afford food, you get rebellions. The west will not convert a factory because it is cheaper to build a new one problem in the west is that companies like Rheinmetall want guaranties to build new production lines, that is why you see them build it in Ukraine. Yes military targets get damaged that we do not know how much or how bad but in WWII Germany war production peaked during allied bombing.

Russia's stock is not 100% to use (there are satellite images of these outdoor stocks on the moment they are empty or almost empty) after more than 70 year stuff not working or can not be repaired know how Russian store things and that is bad and with the corruption a lot is there on paper only. Certainly after 1992 a lot is stolen and sold on the black market knowing Russians that did not stop under Putin, the biggest kleptocrat.

Dargo

01-13-24, 06:58 PM

A background for understanding today's #fire at Russian "#Wildberries" warehouse in #Petersburg. Russian companies obliged to pay a "slave toll" to the army, delivering a number of recruits. Some companies pay ransoms to protect employees. Wildberries, a Russian clone of Amazon, did the opposite: they mass-delivered slave soldiers, allegedly against some privileges for their business. Since 2022, Wildberries helped police to mass-arrest employees and forcibly recruit them. They pushed personnel out of the offices and warehouses into streets, where police waited for them, and arrested for the army. It was a well-known practice. Only in September 2022, Wildberries delivered 3,000 slave soldiers to the army, so many, that their warehouse in Koledino, Moscow region, could not function anymore. According to rumours, today's fire in Petersburg was set by employees who were furious about the plans of their slave owners to sell them to the army. https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1746140996289650986

Good old sabotage LOL it all adds up all those fires, bombing, food shortage and high prize on all normal products. The tinder is there, what sets it alight is the Russian people. The key to success this too is true for all revolutions is the refusal by the police and military, to restore order and defend the old regime. Putin has with his upping in defence also put a lot of money in internal security forces, good the less there can go to the war. With the debt Russia has, it is thinking of going to place it in Yuan, becoming the vassal of China. How swell did that plan "3 days to Kyiv" got to "second-best army to vassal of China". Do the maths, all "great" empires fall from inside decayed regimes inevitably elevate leaders of stunning incompetence, corruption and imbecility, figures like Czar Nicholas II and Putin.

Wildberries company claims it is negotiating with rescue services to use a helicopter to put out the fire at the warehouse in St Petersburg. So if there's a fire in Russia and the smoke from it covers half of St Petersburg - negotiations with firepersons are needed so they will start work. If someone gets robbed in Russia - should that person start negotiating with the police? This is complete breakdown of the system if "connections" are needed even for issues like this one. There have been at least 50 large fires in the past 5-6 months in the large warehouses in Russia, mostly in Moscow region and St Petersburg. No one was punished. There have been rumors that with the sanctions it is more profitable to burn down the building and get payments from insurance than upkeep half-empty spaces. https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1746099968069267674 ... have no words :har:

Skybird

01-13-24, 07:15 PM

This is attrition warfare at its worst. Big numbers count heavier than better quality.

On klast nihts air attacks, Russia score dbetter since a few nights, and especially the last two. this is becasue air dfences run out of msisiles - they must prioritize targets, cant afford to shoot down every air target anymore.

Same with artillery, they had a 1o minutes docu on it on a German news channel yesterday. The artillery unit the reporter team visited, fired just a fraction of rounds that they fired a year ago, the comamnder said, two roudn spe rhour, foten just two rounds over the whole day. He said that its not enough to impress the Russians anymore, its just a way to reassure them that they are still there. Artillery ammo is strictly rationed. The soldiers did not diretcly say it, but the reporter said the mood was muted and optimism was not to be seen. Right now the men just did their job by habit.

The Russians will continue on the gporund like they did so far at least until after the US elections, I expect. The air attacks will continue at elast over the winter. They know they have Ukraine defence production with its back against the wall, and the Russians thisd winter go after the (now decentralised) Ukrainian production as well as after the powergrid (again).

Its not important whether the Western news sources think Russia could or could not have thes eammuntion stocks and weapons numbers. They fire with them, and they blow up stuff with them, and so I assume its a safe bet they indeed do have them. As long as I am not hallucinating, that is.

Which is no surprise, since Ukraine is prevented from getting the reach to go after the Russian war production centres. While the Ukrainian production is a target, the Russian production is not. Well. :ping:

Dargo

01-13-24, 07:27 PM

These 6 months Ukraine does the bigger attrition warfare in the long run and this will be a long war Russia will not keep up Ukraine has more and richer allies than Russia Ukraine will get what it needs to win this maybe not on the front that is not needed Russia is so good at losing it will eat itself. Precision is important Russia can fire, and they blow up stuff with them, but mostly they are not the target that is not winning a war. Russian missiles are of low-quality and have poor guidance, they explode in-flight or miss their targets often.

Dargo

01-13-24, 08:26 PM

Russia Might Be Running Out Of Tanks
Russia could run out of infantry fighting vehicles in two or three years, if a recent assessment is accurate. It might run out of tanks around the same time.

According to one count, the Russian armed forces went to war in Ukraine in February 2022 with 2,987 tanks. After 23 months of hard fighting, the Russians have lost at least 2,619 tanks that independent analysts can confirm.

That’s 1,725 destroyed, 145 damaged, 205 abandoned and 544 captured T-55s, T-62s, T-72s, T-80s and T-90s.

If the Kremlin didn’t have options for replacing war losses, the Russian military would be down to just 368 tanks: far too few to defend against Ukraine’s own armor corps, which between pre-war tanks, restored tanks and donated tanks—minus losses—might number around a thousand vehicles.

But the Kremlin does have sources of replacement tanks: the Uralvagonzavod factory in southern Russia, which manufactures new T-90Ms, plus four other facilities that repair and modernize old tanks that have been moldering in storage. Some for decades.

The big question—one that no outside analyst definitively has answered—is how many tanks Uralvagonzavod can build, and how tanks the other plants can repair.

The Kremlin claims it received 1,500 new and modernized tanks following an intensive industrial effort that roughly tripled vehicle-generation in 2023. If that’s true—a big if—it would be reasonable to assume the Russian armed forces received around 500 new and modernized tanks in 2022.

Three thousand pre-war tanks minus 2,600 wartime losses plus 2,000 replacement tanks equals 2,400 tanks. As the Russian military added new formations in the 23 months since widening the war, so each field army, division, brigade and regiment would have fewer tanks than it would have had before 2022.

All the same, 2,400 tanks probably is ... enough tanks. Enough, that is, as long as the war is “positional” and neither side is hinging its strategy on a swift armored breakthrough deep into the enemy’s rear.

But here’s the catch. Russia might have fewer than 2,400 active tanks. Many fewer. Because Russia might not be generating nearly as many new and modernized tanks as the Kremlin has claimed.

Kyiv-based Militarnyi took a careful look at a separate analysis from French open-source intelligence cell ARI and arrived at a startling conclusion. Startling to advocates of Russian aggression, that is.

“The pace of work, according to ARI, is significantly lower than Russian propaganda says,” Militarnyi reported. According to the combined assessment, Russian industry is generating just 390 tanks a year. Meaning it may have built or restored just 780 tanks in 2022 and 2023.

If that’s true, then the Russian armed forces might be down to just 1,180 tanks. Perhaps slightly more tanks than the Ukrainian armed forces currently possess.

Worse for the Russians, lately they’ve been losing—in suicidal frontal assaults—far more tanks than they could replace even in the most optimistic industrial scenario. All that is to say, the Russians might be running out of tanks.

If the Kremlin’s goal is to achieve an armored breakthrough, it first must rebuild its tank corps. That means, at the very least, losing fewer tanks—if not also generating many more replacement tanks. That begs for “prolonged stagnation at the front,” Militarnyi explained.

But the Kremlin isn’t letting the war stagnate. Instead, it has launched sloppy frontal assaults at several points along the 600-mile front line of the wider war. Only one, the assault north of Bakhmut, has resulted in meaningful advances for the Russians—and all have cost Russian field armies more tanks than they can afford to lose.

The implications, as Russia’s war on Ukraine grinds toward its third year, are obvious. Russia’s threat—to outlast Ukraine and its allies in a long war of attrition—might be an empty one. https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/01/10/russia-might-be-running-out-of-tanks/

Skybird

01-13-24, 08:40 PM

Dargo

01-13-24, 09:42 PM

The entire Moscow metropolitan area, population 22 million, will have rolling blackouts of electricity "not to exceed 12 hours per day" from January 14 through March 31, 2024. Failing infrastructure, those 12 hours with electric off are to keep the system functional, not to fix it. Probably the inefficient management and no upgrades done in the last 20 years. Instead of fixing the nation, they called it to war death instead of normality, and they are proud, so proud. And the North Koreans are showing their support for Russia by conserving energy.

https://i.postimg.cc/MHztLF9R/nksupport.jpg

Last winter, Russians gloated over the prospect of Europe freezing to death without Russian gas and cheered as their army bombed Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. This winter, Russian heating and power systems are collapsing amid a major freeze. Karma has a wicked sense of humour.

Dargo

01-13-24, 09:46 PM

In three years...? Wowh, thats a great relief for Ukraine. It only must get along in 2024, 2025 and 2026. In 2027 Russia then runs out of tanks. Its economy may crash. Its labour pool may be eroded. All nice and well, I expected right that in the long run. Say, in three years or so.

And until then...?

Lets hope stupidity goes on a rampage amongst Russian planners. If that 3 year scenario get worstened for Russia to a one year scenario - then I will start sounding less pessimistic. Say, this month next year.As we peruse the annals of this great nation's history, one can't help but be struck by the remarkable period of the late 19th and early 20th centuries, particularly under the stewardship of Tsar Alexander II. It was, by all accounts, an era that could almost be mistaken for prosperous, at least by the rather colourful standards of Russian history.

Consider, if you will, the liberation of the serfs in 1861. A most noble gesture, indeed! It must have been rather bewildering for those poor souls, suddenly unshackled yet curiously adrift in the vast Russian landscape. One imagines them, blinking in the sunlight, asking themselves, “What now?” It's all rather reminiscent of a Chekhov play, isn't it?

And then, of course, there was the industrial expansion, epitomized by the ambitious construction of the Trans-Siberian Railway. One can only marvel at the audacity of connecting such vast, and let's be frank, often inhospitable tracts of land. I daresay, the journey from Moscow to Vladivostok must have been quite the adventure, replete with the romance of the unknown and, dare I say, an ample dose of Siberian chill.

This epoch also saw noteworthy strides in legal and educational reforms. The Russian judicial system, taking tentative steps towards modernization, was rather like a bear learning to dance admirable, though not without a certain awkwardness. The burgeoning educated middle class, now able to read and reflect upon their own societal woes, must have found themselves in a bit of a literary conundrum, grappling with the existential weight of Tolstoy and the melancholic introspection of Dostoevsky.

Yet, amidst these advancements, the undercurrent of discontent simmered, inexorably leading to the seismic shift of the 1917 Revolution. It seems Russia's fortunes are always a bit like her winters, any warmth is invariably followed by a return to frost.

Now, let us ponder the year 1941, a time of unparalleled tribulation. The Nazi invasion brought a calamity of such magnitude that it would leave an indelible scar on the Russian psyche. The sheer scale of the suffering, the loss of life, the siege of cities like Leningrad, it's all rather Wagnerian, isn't it?

Then we arrive at 1961, a year of soaring achievement with Yuri Gagarin's celestial escapade. Indeed, Russia was first in the Space Race, a fact I'm sure our American friends begrudgingly acknowledge at dinner parties. Yet, back on terra firma, the Soviet Union was, shall we say, less than stellar in addressing the mundane matters of political freedom and economic efficiency.

In conclusion, Russian history is like a grand, if somewhat overwrought, novel full of sound and fury, signifying, well, quite a lot, actually. It's a narrative rich in contrasts, where each chapter of progress is dogged by the footnotes of strife. A fascinating read, albeit one that leaves the reader pining for a cup of strong tea, a lie-down and read up on this mighty great empire.

mapuc

01-14-24, 08:45 AM

Good question - Who's in charge of the Russian forces ?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_mt-coRm5rI&ab_channel=CombatVeteranReacts

Markus

Skybird

01-14-24, 10:08 AM

As we peruse the annals of this great nation's history, one can't help but be struck by the remarkable period of the late 19th and early 20th centuries, particularly under the stewardship of Tsar Alexander II. It was, by all accounts, an era that could almost be mistaken for prosperous, at least by the rather colourful standards of Russian history.

Consider, if you will, the liberation of the serfs in 1861. A most noble gesture, indeed! It must have been rather bewildering for those poor souls, suddenly unshackled yet curiously adrift in the vast Russian landscape. One imagines them, blinking in the sunlight, asking themselves, “What now?” It's all rather reminiscent of a Chekhov play, isn't it?

And then, of course, there was the industrial expansion, epitomized by the ambitious construction of the Trans-Siberian Railway. One can only marvel at the audacity of connecting such vast, and let's be frank, often inhospitable tracts of land. I daresay, the journey from Moscow to Vladivostok must have been quite the adventure, replete with the romance of the unknown and, dare I say, an ample dose of Siberian chill.

This epoch also saw noteworthy strides in legal and educational reforms. The Russian judicial system, taking tentative steps towards modernization, was rather like a bear learning to dance admirable, though not without a certain awkwardness. The burgeoning educated middle class, now able to read and reflect upon their own societal woes, must have found themselves in a bit of a literary conundrum, grappling with the existential weight of Tolstoy and the melancholic introspection of Dostoevsky.

Yet, amidst these advancements, the undercurrent of discontent simmered, inexorably leading to the seismic shift of the 1917 Revolution. It seems Russia's fortunes are always a bit like her winters, any warmth is invariably followed by a return to frost.

Now, let us ponder the year 1941, a time of unparalleled tribulation. The Nazi invasion brought a calamity of such magnitude that it would leave an indelible scar on the Russian psyche. The sheer scale of the suffering, the loss of life, the siege of cities like Leningrad, it's all rather Wagnerian, isn't it?

Then we arrive at 1961, a year of soaring achievement with Yuri Gagarin's celestial escapade. Indeed, Russia was first in the Space Race, a fact I'm sure our American friends begrudgingly acknowledge at dinner parties. Yet, back on terra firma, the Soviet Union was, shall we say, less than stellar in addressing the mundane matters of political freedom and economic efficiency.

In conclusion, Russian history is like a grand, if somewhat overwrought, novel full of sound and fury, signifying, well, quite a lot, actually. It's a narrative rich in contrasts, where each chapter of progress is dogged by the footnotes of strife. A fascinating read, albeit one that leaves the reader pining for a cup of strong tea, a lie-down and read up on this mighty great empire.
How does this help Ukraine to survive NOW ? How does it compensate for ammo shortages ? How does it take out Russian gunships, missiles, tanks, artillery?

I admit Russian history currently is not even a blip at the outer rim of my radar screen. The past does not matter for what happens on the battlefield right now.

Dont get me as being rude, but Ukraine needs shells NOW, and SAMs NOW, and long range missiles for deep interdiction strikes against production and logistics networks inside Russia NOW - not history lessons explaining why the enemy in the future might suffer this or that fate. ;) In the very logn term Russia will pay for this war even if it were victorious, demographically and economically it looses, I never denied that. But that does not matter for the imminent one, two years of the war. You cant sell the skin before you have caught the bear. Right now there is no chance to catch it ever. Chances currently are that in the end he catches you. Ukraine is being outproduced in military supplies. Ukraine'S supplies shrink. Russia's grow.

And politically the mometum is Russia's, while the West stagnates.

Dargo

01-14-24, 11:41 AM

With the ammo "shortages" Ukraine still destroys/damage tanks, artillery and soldiers in double digits it still repels the attacks by the Russian daily maybe that shortage is not that short for some ammo I do not know, but it is better to shout fire before the massive fire spread through the whole front, and it still gets ammo delivered from the west we have running contracts with Ukraine (Slovakia still allow sale of ammunition and weapons also green lit European Council conclusions that included military aid for Ukraine.) this will continue there is still aid being delivered economical and military this will not stop even when the US does not can give support. That 50 billion from the EU will pass this year also not that the money given in the past was spent, those were spread out over years. You can not assume if the US is out it all stops in the EU the majority is for to give support that will continue, and you do not either I know what is given most countries do not publicly share that information. The EU maybe can not produce on the moment, but it will end of this year in the meantime we can and will buy the needed ammo NATO will give what it has in parts out of stock than place the order to fill their stock again. We do not have the same foe in the east that has half of its army in a war that is bogged down, so an attack on NATO is not to be expected in years to come. There are in the EU at least 2 countries that have as much as Germany that are only 2 smaller countries I can give you more and those countries promised to give about the same or more this year so where is the stagnation in the west when a lot give more than the 4th economy of the world. These are no dreams or optimism, they are facts Ukraine still will get more aid from richer allies than Russia gets. Contract mend for other countries are already bought for Ukraine those countries have agreed that their order will be delayed and that what was ordered will go to Ukraine these are not countries that are involved in any way in the conflict there is more happening than you and I know behind the scene to say "the West" fails.

Ukraine’s Long-Term Path to Success: Jumpstarting a Self-Sufficient Defense Industrial Base with US and EU Support
Ukraine is dramatically expanding its defense industrial capacity to develop the ability over time to satisfy its military requirements with significantly reduced foreign military assistance. Ukraine is pursuing three primary lines of effort to achieve this goal: increasing its domestic defense industrial base (DIB), building bilateral and multilateral partnerships with European states, and pursuing industrial joint ventures with the United States and other international enterprises to co-produce defense materials in Ukraine and elsewhere. Ukraine will require considerable Western military assistance for several years, and its ability to reduce its dependence on such assistance depends in part on whether it can liberate strategically vital areas currently occupied by Russian forces, among other factors. But Ukraine and its Western partners are executing a realistic plan to create a sustainable basis for Ukraine to be able to defend itself over the long term with dramatically reduced foreign military assistance.

Ukrainian Domestic Arms Production
Ukraine’s prospects for sustaining its military forces with limited assistance over the long term are excellent. Ukraine is heavily industrialized with a highly educated and technically sophisticated population. It had a massive arms industry during the Soviet period and continued to be a significant arms exporter after independence. The Russian occupation of key industrial areas and destruction of important centers of weapons production, especially the Kharkiv tank factory, has degraded but not eliminated the solid base on which Ukraine can build a viable DIB to support its military forces in the future.

Ukraine has been expanding its DIB domestically and abroad since the start of the Russian full-scale invasion. Ukraine’s domestic arms industry at the start of 2024 produces a higher volume of weapons than it did before Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, despite Russian efforts to cripple Ukraine’s DIB.[1] Kyiv intensified its efforts to expand its DIB in 2023. Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal stated in June 2023 that Ukraine could become the “center of modern weapons production in Europe” through cooperation with international industry to localize arms production in Ukraine.[2] Shmyhal stated in October 2023 that Ukraine understands that it must produce weapons in Ukraine to offset global ammunition and gunpowder shortages affecting all states’ weapons procurement.[3] Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced in December 2023 that Ukraine’s task is to make itself “so strong and effective” that it can resist Russian aggression – a goal that Zelensky said Ukraine can only accomplish through the “sufficient production of domestic weapons.”[4] Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov Stated in December 2023 that Ukraine has developed a strategy for domestic defense production and has launched programs to reduce the risk of shortages of ammunition, missiles, and other military equipment.[5] Umerov identified the goal of increasing Ukraine’s domestic production of weapons and military equipment as a priority for 2024.[6] This effort is advancing a short-term objective of immediately supplying Ukrainian troops on the battlefield and a long-term objective of ensuring that Ukraine can be more self-sufficient and less reliant on external security assistance in the future.

Ukraine has been expanding its DIB capabilities domestically and abroad since the start of the Russian full-scale invasion to offset ammunition and weapon shortages, repair military equipment, and develop new weapons. Ukraine’s domestic arms industry in 2024 now produces a higher volume of weapons than it did before Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, despite Russian efforts to cripple Ukraine’s DIB.[7] Zelensky stated on December 27, 2023, that Ukraine produced three times as much equipment and weapons in 2023 as it did in 2022.[8] Ukroboronprom (Ukrainian Defense Industry) - the Ukrainian state-owned joint-stock company that holds Ukraine’s defense industry companies - increased its production by 62 percent in 2023 compared with 2022.[9] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine%E2%80%99s-long-term-path-success-jumpstarting-self-sufficient-defense-industrial-base

https://i.postimg.cc/d1Qx4Mtf/UADIB.png

Ukraine FPV drone reveals Russia has developed new reactive armour to cover tanks with. Is cheap, plentiful and easy to replace.

https://i.postimg.cc/Gm64rrsW/GD0-YY3-PWg-AAx-VDf.jpg
https://twitter.com/DarthPutinKGB/status/1746579053031665862

What we see here is the picture from a 500 USD drone with an RPG-7 warhead (another 50 USD). This is all what you need to smash more than a dozen Russians, their gear and their truck. Another Russian meat wave turned to a close to 100% casualty rate. https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1746536405201776750

Jimbuna

01-14-24, 02:20 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9gmotwa5DMo

mapuc

01-14-24, 02:54 PM

Jimbuna

01-14-24, 02:56 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VVJNpHHgB30

Dargo

01-14-24, 03:25 PM

Dargo wrote:
"With the ammo "shortages" Ukraine still destroys/damage tanks, artillery and soldiers in double digits it still repels the attacks by the Russian daily maybe that shortage is not that short for some ammo I do not know"

They still need a lot more in order to push Russian back

and they need
Skybird wrote:
" long range missiles for deep interdiction strikes against production and logistics networks inside Russia NOW"

Not to forget many more soldiers is what Ukraine needs mostly.

MarkusUkraine is in defence than you need lesser ammo than in offensive mode for the long range missiles, I doubt they ever get them to strike deep into Russia what Skybird wrote will turn this war to a level we do not want not needed either. Attrite the Russians in Ukraine will destroy not only their material and moral on the front but also their economy to the point they can no longer deny publicly that this plan utterly failed, this gives a better position for Ukraine to negotiate. Attacking Russia in the deep will backfire, Russians could get more resolved to sacrifice more than they do now.

This all takes time, this will be a long war:
The US will need to continue supporting Ukraine for several years as Ukraine’s DIB in Ukraine and Europe spins up and Ukraine liberates key areas, but Ukraine’s intensive efforts to expand its own DIB and establish deep and broad defense industrial partnerships will decrease international security assistance requirements for Ukraine in the long run. Europe is taking the lead in investing in Ukraine’s DIB and establishing joint production in Europe, but Europe cannot achieve these goals without US and international support. Europe is challenged to meet 155 mm shell production targets on time and is working to replace equipment given to Ukraine, let alone increase it substantially to enable Ukraine to retake critical territory[132] It will likely take significant time for European and Ukrainian firms to fully mobilize their industries. Mobilizing any country’s defense industry for mass wartime production is a lengthy undertaking and Ukraine will continue to be vulnerable as it gets its DIB up and running. (It took American industry several years to fully mobilize its industry for wartime production in the Second World War between 1939 and 1943).[133] Ukraine needs more air defense systems and sufficient ammunition to protect Ukrainian cities, frontline forces, and new industrial facilities. Ukraine will continue to depend on foreign military assistance to procure more tanks.[134] Ukraine’s DIB has many longstanding structural reforms it must tackle to unlock its full potential.[135] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine%E2%80%99s-long-term-path-success-jumpstarting-self-sufficient-defense-industrial-base

mapuc

01-14-24, 03:47 PM

Ukraine is in defence than you need lesser ammo than in offensive mode for the long range missiles, I doubt they ever get them to strike deep into Russia what Skybird wrote will turn this war to a level we do not want not needed either. Attrite the Russians in Ukraine will destroy not only their material and moral on the front but also their economy to the point they can no longer deny publicly that this plan utterly failed, this gives a better position for Ukraine to negotiate. Attacking Russia in the deep will backfire, Russians could get more resolved to sacrifice more than they do now.

If I understand you correctly - You don't want Ukraine to win this war.

Came also to think of the phrase boiling the frog. Nor shall Russia win this war.

Markus

Dargo

01-14-24, 04:14 PM

If I understand you correctly - You don't want Ukraine to win this war.

Came also to think of the phrase boiling the frog. Nor shall Russia win this war.

MarkusThe "Ukraine is not allowed to win this war" is Russian disinformation there is a lot of that in western media like "the 2023 Ukraine offensive failed, so Ukraine lost the war" Ukraine is not losing or gone to lose this. But do not think this will be a short war, this will last years before Ukraine can come to table and demand of Russia to retreat from Ukraine in the end it will have a better position to negotiate a peace.

mapuc

01-14-24, 04:37 PM

The "Ukraine is not allowed to win this war" is Russian disinformation there is a lot of that in western media like "the 2023 Ukraine offensive failed, so Ukraine lost the war" Ukraine is not losing or gone to lose this. But do not think this will be a short war, this will last years before Ukraine can come to table and demand of Russia to retreat from Ukraine in the end it will have a better position to negotiate a peace.

I truly want Ukraine to win this war or get a good position under future negotiation.

If not long range weapons to hit inside Russia then long range missiles to hit every corner of occupied land.

You even wrote:
"The US will need to continue supporting Ukraine for several years as Ukraine’s DIB in Ukraine and Europe spins up and Ukraine liberates key areas"

Here you so to say expect a never ending flow of weapons and ammo from US and the West.

In both US and the in West are based on democracy Which mean our politicians has to listen to their voters and the support for Ukraine isn't so high any more and we do not know who's gonna be US next President.

Markus

Dargo

01-14-24, 05:10 PM

I truly want Ukraine to win this war or get a good position under future negotiation.

If not long range weapons to hit inside Russia then long range missiles to hit every corner of occupied land.

You even wrote:
"The US will need to continue supporting Ukraine for several years as Ukraine’s DIB in Ukraine and Europe spins up and Ukraine liberates key areas"

Here you so to say expect a never ending flow of weapons and ammo from US and the West.

In both US and the in West are based on democracy Which mean our politicians has to listen to their voters and the support for Ukraine isn't so high any more and we do not know who's gonna be US next President.

MarkusMajority in Europe support Ukraine and pledge their aid for this year and coming years do not know what will happen after all these elections but know contracts are signed production lines are being build with the already ammo supply going to Ukraine more will go end of this year. Europe can always buy from the US and South Korea see no problem here. After solving the Orbán problem, they get enough to last years, certainly what the separate members give on top of that 50 billion.

Dargo

01-14-24, 05:24 PM

Russian channels report the loss of 2 aircraft, an A-50 and Il-22, while flying over the Azov Sea near the city of Berdyansk. Reducing radar coverage and EW capability, opportunities could be opened up for deep strikes $450M is now a submarine. St Patriot strikes again. The long-range radar detection aircraft of the A-50 acts as a corrector during massive attacks on Ukraine. Russia also uses them to detect Ukrainian air defence systems. According to the monitoring group "Belaruski Gayun", at the start of the full-scale invasion, there were 9 such aircraft in Russia. Each of them costs about $330 million.

https://i.postimg.cc/j2z5gDXx/A50.jpghttps://i.postimg.cc/FzQFL9Q2/Il22.jpg

According to information from sources within the Ukrainian Defense Forces, it has been revealed that a military aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces, A-50, was shot down, and an IL-22M11 with registration number 75106 was damaged. Reportedly, the A-50 aircraft was downed immediately upon entering the patrol zone near Kyrylivka around 21:10-21:15 on January 14. The A-50 disappeared from radars and ceased responding to tactical aviation requests. Subsequently, the pilot of a Russian Su-30 aircraft detected a fire and the descent of an unidentified airborne vehicle. The IL-22M11 aircraft was on patrol in the Strilkove area and was eventually shot down along the coast of the Azov Sea at around 21:00 on January 14. After being hit, the aircraft intended to make an emergency landing in Anapa, requesting evacuation and calling for ambulance and firefighting services. https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/ukrainian-armed-forces-shot-down-russian-1705270526.html

Skybird

01-14-24, 05:28 PM

The dangerous flaw in your optimism is twofold, Dargo. First, you seem to take politicians' formulations literally. Secondly, your optimism is so pure and enlightened that it leaves no room for error. Both ensure that the very obvious, blatant details that already contradict you are simply ignored and trivialized by you.

This way you feed a dangerously naive fiction.

I again quote the opening passage from that linked essay I pposted 3 or 4 days ago:

And from my post here: https://www.subsim.com/radioroom/sho...postcount=2284 (https://www.subsim.com/radioroom/showpost.php?p=2898659&postcount=2284), these paragraphs:
---------------------
In his autobiography "History of a German", Sebastian Haffner describes how, as a ten-year-old during the First World War, he eagerly awaited the final victory of the German troops - "in a dream world of the great game".

He walked to the police station every day to read the Supreme Army Command's victory announcements as a serialized novel on the notice board. "I had no idea what the end of the war would look like without a final victory."

That was to change a little later. On November 9 and 10, 1918, there are still army reports in the usual style, writes Haffner: "Enemy breakthrough attempts rebuffed."

But on November 11, there is no longer a report from the army command on the bulletin board. Haffner can't believe it: "The board yawned at me, empty and black."

In a daze, the ten-year-old drifts through the streets in the drizzle of November until he finally comes across a crowd of people in front of a newspaper kiosk. In the early edition of a newspaper, he reads the words he is not prepared for: "Ceasefire signed."
Beneath it was a long list of the conditions for this armistice, which in reality amounted to an unconditional surrender. Haffner reads, and as he reads, he freezes: "That something like this could happen to us. And not as an incident, but as the end result of nothing but victories and victories. My head couldn't grasp it. The whole world had become strange and scary to me."

In the rest of that essay Reisner indicates once again that he thinks the West is massively underestimating Russia, and that the West continues to make this mistake again and again. I have no intention of contradicting this.

Maybe, in some years, if Ukraine holds together that long, the inevitable erosion of Russia from this war's costs will show up, and the industrial military output support from Europe will be better than today (which is a very optimistic hope, but at least a possibility). The question remains how Ukraine should hold out that long, until then. The far distant longterm outlook is indeed better for Ukraine, but the trick is to get into that distant time and how to bridge the time between then and now. And here lies the reason why I am so pessimistic. So far NOBODY has outlined a REALISTIC timetable and idea of how the ukraine can be provided with the ammuntions and weapons and where the political will to do so should come from. NOBODY. All I read and hear and see are empty phrases and symbolic gestures. Throughout Europe, the public opinion polls show that from beginning of the war until today, the public mood is such that support for the war is declining. And at the beginning of the war I even predicted that this would happen from some time in second half of 2023 on. To give Ukraine what it indeed needs in weapon sytems (long ranged, for exmaple) is deliberately being rejected by all Western nations: by the US, by Germany, by France anyway, even by the UK. Even the ATACMS were given in very low nubmers, and they were of the oldest type, to clean up American storages and make room for newer things. Storm Shadows and SCALPS probably are not available anymore, too, or only in very low quanity. And their range is limited.

Skybird

01-14-24, 05:30 PM

The loss of that Mainstay AWACS is good news, very good news. They dont have too many of these.

mapuc

01-14-24, 05:52 PM

Majority in Europe support Ukraine and pledge their aid for this year and coming years do not know what will happen after all these elections but know contracts are signed production lines are being build with the already ammo supply going to Ukraine more will go end of this year. Europe can always buy from the US and South Korea see no problem here. After solving the Orbán problem, they get enough to last years, certainly what the separate members give on top of that 50 billion.

Weeks after the start of the invasion Circa 70 something percentage of the Danes supported Ukraine and the Danish help to Ukraine.

Some month ago, think it was somewhere in Nov. this number had fallen to
53 %

So far it looks like there's a majority among the European citizens to support Ukraine this year and maybe next year...Will this support stay in majority the years after ? I expect the number of Danish people supporting Ukraine will go down further and in a couple of years being in minority.

So how long will this majority stand-if we look beyond next year ?

Edit
UK will protect Ukraine he says
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5gd7xBR1bWc&ab_channel=UkraineMatters
End edit

Markus

Skybird

01-14-24, 08:50 PM

Security "guarantees". Ridiculous. Hilarious. Laughable.

They already got them, two times, after they gave up their nuclear weapons, and after Crimea. From the US, formt he UK and Germany and last but not least - from Russia.

If you give such "guarantees", it implies you are willing to go to full scale war over defending such guarantees. For the UK it would mean it uses its nuclear.

If you are not willing to do everything it takes, no matter the risk and the damages to yourself, then you have guaranteed" NOTHING. A promise to give some specific aid and support, and a guarantee for security in general, are lightyears apart.

You want security guarantees? Get the bomb, and make the world believe hat you intend to use it "if"... Thats the only "security guarantee" worth this high flying name.

Spoken or written or promised "security guarantees" are just a waste of ink and oxygen. They are worth nothing. The Ukraine meanwhile should have learned this lesson.

Buddahaid

01-14-24, 09:10 PM

Putin is on international record saying he would respect The Ukraine's borders when they gave up they're Soviet era nukes. Long term plan liar.

Reece

01-15-24, 02:27 AM

I think someone should give some nukes to Ukraine! :D

mapuc

01-15-24, 03:21 AM

This is great news, keep on doing this

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7qVYge7RVf4&ab_channel=CombatVeteranReacts

Markus

Skybird

01-15-24, 07:42 AM

^ Old news, just slightly updated. Its the attack from octobre, the first ATACMS strike.

It is assumed Ukraine has none or only very few left now.

Jimbuna

01-15-24, 07:57 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RQgea24xYH4

Jimbuna

01-15-24, 08:13 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uGlVIlWxTf0

Skybird

01-15-24, 08:26 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZqrvEkJ6ys0

In a nutshell:

Russia holds 18-19% of Ukrainian territory. Ukrainian minor gains in summer have been reconquered by Russia since then. Russia again advances slowly now, though under heavy losses. Ammunition situation of Ukraine is seriously detoriating. The ratio at combat drones is 1:6 to 1:7 against Ukraine, because the industrial-military complex in Russia is boosting production. Russia is intentionally hitting the civil population with the obvious intention to terrorize them to raise a climate of dissatisfaction of society with the government. Russia has constantly adapted and improved, and now dominates in many aspects and areas of the war. Daily usage of artillery shells is 2,000 shots per day on Ukrainian side, 10,000 shots on Russian side. Around 50% of precision missiles fired by Ukraine get jammed or brought down by Russia. Even Storm Shadow and SCALP need a total cleansing of enemy radar sites along their flight path and in their target area to get through. Russian frontlines are overly saturated with according jamming and radar systems, mounting Ukraine's problems to indeed cut through. Currently a massive wave of strategic air strikes hit Ukraine. Freezing ground and the cold could force Ukraine to give up bridgeheads on the left side of the Dnjepr.

Jimbuna

01-15-24, 08:55 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IsBcpVeLAmo

Dargo

01-15-24, 12:55 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KxrHVebNSuQ

Dargo

01-15-24, 01:18 PM

^ Old news, just slightly updated. Its the attack from octobre, the first ATACMS strike.

It is assumed Ukraine has none or only very few left now.We do not know how many Ukraine gets and what it uses same goes with the 2 planes ( just before Ukraine announced new great news about air defence :D ) yesterday we think patriot but has the patriot reach (only a PAC-2: 99 mi could have done it) over the Sea of Azov. Ukraine will not tell, so we only can guess this is for all that Ukraine still has in stock. How to get more you need to shout fire, we have a shortage, please send more.

Jimbuna

01-15-24, 01:46 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jMYgxenjAro

Skybird

01-16-24, 07:22 AM

Jimbuna

01-16-24, 08:20 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fYNQo24JK0E

Jimbuna

01-16-24, 09:19 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vPjmSsf_uW4

Dargo

01-16-24, 11:12 AM

Better late than never, as the saying goes. The question is how to bridge the time gap between now and then. The Russian economy will one day take a nosedive, and there is no doubt that sooner or later the full cost of the war will be felt: financially, economically and industrially, socially and demographically. But until then, good advice for Ukraine is expensive. It is possible - but not certain - that Ukraine will survive more or less. It is just one possible scenario among many. And the question remains at what cost. Right now, Ukraine takes all the damages taking place, its powergrid, its defence factories, its productivity, its cultural heritage sites, its cities, buildings and housings, and infrastructure. It currently gets destroyed in small but constantly nibbling-away steps. While Russia is completely saved from suffering a similar fate.

https://www.dw.com/en/german-firms-supply-ukraine-as-russia-ups-arms-production/a-67985416

Attacks on Russian war production and war logistics must be made possible. And if Putin cries wolf, he must be reminded that the West has nuclear weapons, too. A further conventional escalation is not possible anyway, the Russians have escalated conventionally to the maximum possible. They already have wiped out and continue to wipe out whole cities - how much more escalation could they do?Maybe closer than we think in Russia we do not need missiles to destroy our infrastructure, we stupid enough to kill it ourselves.
You won't believe it, but yet another town in Russia is now without heat. Novomoskovsk in Tula region - 372 residential buildings, 16 kindergartens and a hospital are without heat because of an incident at the local electricity station. "All resources and means are directed towards liquidating the accident," says the press-release of the local mayor's office. Russian Telegram channel reports that despite all the efforts to fix the station, nothing works, and locals report that their apartments are getting cold. It's up to -12 degrees Celsius outside. There has been a whole series of accidents with utility services in Russia since 2024 started. The parade of housing and utility accidents, which left hundreds of thousands of people without heat from the Moscow region to the Far East, has been going on in Russian regions since the beginning of 2024 amid severe frosts. The number of buildings left without heating in Russian Lipetsk has tripled. Now there are 282 of them, which is about 50 thousand people. The temperature in the city at night can reach -30°C. But Lipetsk residents are warmed by the thought that it is necessary to live in the cold until March, until the presidential election. And vote for Vladimir Vladimirovich. Hot geysers in the streets of Russian Lipetsk instead of heating in residential buildings. An accident occurred in the heating system there.

The deterioration of utility infrastructure grids in Russia, including heat and water supply, as well as sewerage, exceeded 70% by mid-2022. At the same time, Putin said that the Russian authorities had made large-scale investments in the infrastructure of the housing and utilities sector in 2023. According to him, 337 billion rubles (~$3.744 billion) were allocated from various sources to modernize the system. At the same time, in 2024-2026, financing of the housing and utilities sector from the federal treasury will be cut by more than half. Amid an avalanche-like increase in the number of utility accidents, Russian authorities are cutting federal budget spending on housing and utilities by 40% in 2025 and another 20% in 2026. It is necessary to get money for missiles from somewhere. While Russia is freezing, Shoigu reports a fivefold increase in the "volume of production of means of defeat". Also, all those fires if an economy goes belly up companies start burning their own capital to collect insurance money to have at least some money to prevent bankruptcy.

Skybird

01-16-24, 11:35 AM

Is this due to failed funding for maintenace and a lack of service, or active sabotage?

Dargo

01-16-24, 11:40 AM

Is this due to failed funding for maintenance and a lack of service, or active sabotage?Failed funding for maintenance for decades because they all corrupt they collect the funds but never maintain same as in the USSR Russia does not change. Some fires are sabotage I know of several groups doing that and industries can be hacked via Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) systems used for controlling, monitoring, and analysing industrial devices and processes there are several western and Ukraine hacker crews doing that.

Russian government and officials turned out to be the owners of the largest egg factories, with the price of their products increased by 60%, Russian Forbes. Five of the twelve largest egg producers in Russia are managed by state structures, as well as current or former officials. This is stated in the Forbes analysis, which covers the largest poultry farms, with production of 600 million eggs in 2022.
The leader of the list is JSC Poultry farm Sinyavinskaya is owned by 94.5% by Sberbank. The bank became the owner of the factory in 2017. Entering the top three, OJSC Volganin has been managed by Lyudmila Kosteva, a member of the regional political council of the United Russia party in the Yaroslavl region, since 1996. By 2015 she became not only the CEO but also the owner of the enterprise: by 2015 Kosteva bought up all 100% of its capital.
OJSC Sverdlovskaya Poultry Farm is directly owned by the state.
The agricultural holding Komos Group, which in addition to eggs produces dairy products and pork, is equally owned by Andrey Shutov and Andrey Oskolkov, former deputies of the State Council of Udmurtia from the United Russia party. Oskolkov was deputy chairman of the republic's government in the early 2000s.
Leonid Sedov, the head of the Seimovskaya poultry farm, spent four years in the 2000s as Minister of Agriculture of the Nizhny Novgorod Region. Now he controls more than 90% of the shares of the enterprise.
Egg prices soared by 61.4% in 2023 and continued to grow in the new year. Even Putin had to comment on the situation and redirected the question to Agriculture Minister Dmitry Patrushev. The latter promised to improve: "I felt that it is necessary to work better I hope that in the near future, at the beginning of the year, the price should go down". But it hasn't.

Dargo

01-16-24, 01:24 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mMOS-iy-DUc

Jimbuna

01-16-24, 01:47 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=loVms-wnkuY

Skybird

01-17-24, 03:54 AM

Over the past three days, various German newspapers have repeatedly reported on a problem that Zelenski recently raised again. According to Ukrainian sources, they have found high-tech components, cameras, chips and circuit boards in all - in ALL - remains of Russian precision munitions and guided missiles that were brought down or hit and did not explode, without which the missiles' sensors and control mechanisms could not function. Most of them come from American production, but also from Europe and the Far East. Stickers on the boards with serial numbers and the like show date ranges that prove that these parts were delivered and installed months after the war had already begun. So they did not come from Russian reserves that already existed before the war.

In other words, the so-called free world is still not doing enough to enforce embargoes, detect smuggling, and prevent the supply of these essential components to the Russian military. Western companies are still making far too much money (otherwise they wouldn't take the risk) by colluding with the war criminal Putin and his henchmen and helping them to kill Ukrainians and destroy the country.

In a perfect world, the responsible decision-makers in such companies and their political helpers should be found and put up against the wall without a fuss. Short process. This is no free entrepreneurship. Siding with the fascist aggressor in this war is - due to his cruel acts of terror and barbarism - a crime against humanity.

Every war seems to have thios sort of scum profiting. But it is and remains scum and we should do everything in our power to stop its malicous actions and pull it out together with its roots and dispose of it.

We should also strictly punish all those who made grossly negligent and naive decisions and thus accepted that their deliveries would not go directly to Russia, but would be diverted and channeled to Russia via third parties. They, too, knowingly and deliberately acted contrary to the intention and spirit of the sanctions. Playing dumb doesn't count. Naivety does not free you from responsibility.

Jimbuna

01-17-24, 05:24 AM

^ Very well said and agree 100%

Jimbuna

01-17-24, 05:33 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NKVbw-onWPM

mapuc

01-17-24, 02:16 PM

Dargo

01-17-24, 02:22 PM

From our China thread

"Russia may have received over a million shells from North Korea."

From what I have heard most of these shells are worthless.
They can't be used.

Don't know how trustworthy this claim is.

MarkusIt is Russians on the front have inspected them and made it public that wrong material is in use and connection wires missing.

Jimbuna

01-17-24, 02:24 PM

So farcical it is probably true.

Dargo

01-17-24, 02:38 PM

Deep in Siberia, Ukraine sabotages Russian railroad lines
Ukrainian soldiers are carrying out sabotage operations on Russian railroads far behind the front lines. By blowing up crucial bridges and tunnels, Ukraine is thus trying to thwart Russian arms shipments, such as the supply of artillery shells from North Korea. In Nizhny Tagil, the town with Russia's largest tank factory, an explosion sounded last Monday. Local authorities spoke of "some kind of bang" at a train station. Soon, videos circulated of burned-out fuel cars at the station next to oil depots in the city. News site Tagil City brought the scoop on the cause: images from just before the blast show objects attached to the outside of the train. Explosives, according to Tagil City. It was yet another attack on Russian railroads. At least six incidents occurred this winter in which trains derailed or rails were destroyed by explosions. Each time near weapons factories or on railroad tracks crucial for ammunition shipments.

Ukraine is making no secret of its involvement in the attacks. The Ukrainian security service SBOe claimed responsibility last month for a series of explosions at railroad lines in Buryatia, a Russian province 5,000 kilometers from Ukraine. The service said it blew up a fuel train as it passed through the Severomuysk Tunnel, Russia's longest rail tunnel. The explosion shut down train traffic on the main rail line between eastern and western Russia. A second explosion less than a day later crippled the only alternative route. 'Russian security forces should get used to the fact that our people are everywhere, even in distant Buryatia,' an SBOe officer told news site Ukrainian Kaya Pravda. Vasyl Malyuk, the boss of the security service, said shortly before that Ukrainians have broken the "myth of Russian unbeatableness" with the attacks behind the front and that "numerous surprises" lie ahead. The purpose of the attacks is to prevent Russian weapons and munitions from reaching the front. These come largely from weapons factories in the Urals and from North Korea, which has delivered more than a million artillery shells to Russia since last fall, Western governments say.

To transport the North Korean munitions to occupied territory in Ukraine, Russia relies on only two railroads that run straight through the country: the Trans-Siberian Railway (9,000 kilometers) and the parallel BAM, the Baykalo-Amoerskaya Magistral (4,000 kilometers), which turns into the Trans-Siberian Railway halfway through. A single rail break deep into Siberia and munitions do not reach the battlefield. How long-lasting the damage from the attacks is often remains unclear. Take the explosions in the tunnel and on the bridge in Buryatia: Ukraine claims that the Severomuysk Tunnel is unusable for months, but two days after the explosion, the Russian state news agency Ria Novosti distributes a video of a train entering the tunnel - train traffic is said to have "fully resumed. It cannot be independently determined when the video was recorded.

In any case, the attacks show that Ukraine is managing to hit Russia far behind the trenches, despite a growing shortage of conventional weapons at the front. Ukraine also dealt Russia a punch this week by shooting an advanced Russian spy plane out of the sky over the Sea of Azov and hitting a flying command center. Rybar, an influential pro-Russian blogger, spoke of "another black day for the Russian Air Force and Air Defense. Following the rail sabotage, Russia has opened several terrorism cases. It is trying to deter saboteurs with severe penalties. President Vladimir Putin recently signed a law allowing those responsible for "sabotage activities" to be punished with life imprisonment. Since the beginning of the Great Invasion nearly two years ago, at least 137 people have been convicted of railroad sabotage, research by Russian news site Mediazona (https://en.zona.media/article/2023/10/06/sabotage-map) revealed in October. Russian authorities have also recently started posting warnings along the tracks. 'Sabotage is punishable by 10 to 20 years' or life imprisonment!!!,' read relay boxes, which contain the technology for rail security and are regularly targeted by saboteurs.

But the saboteurs are not deterred and proceed cautiously, says a Russian man in a video near the burned-out train in Nizhny Tagil. 'They placed the explosives in a recess of the tank, so the security guards didn't notice anything,' the man says, addressing his compatriots: 'Be alert, friends.' https://www.volkskrant.nl/kijkverder/v/2024/diep-in-siberie-saboteert-oekraine-russische-spoorlijnen~v1001017/

mapuc

01-17-24, 02:55 PM

^ Great news indeed.

Now they only need to expand their sabotage to factories and other important stuff.

Markus

Jimbuna

01-18-24, 07:37 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gRpD3e91gG0

Skybird

01-18-24, 07:45 AM

Dont sell the skin before you have caught the bear.

Jimbuna

01-18-24, 08:37 AM

Protesters in Baymak, a small town in Russia’s central Bashkortostan region, clashed with riot police on Wednesday after a court sentenced eco-activist and campaigner for the protection of the Bashkir language, Fail Alsynov, to four years in prison for “inciting hatred”. Police used teargas to disperse the protests, according to OVD-Info, which monitors protests across Russia. The head of the local interior ministry, Rafail Divayev, urged demonstrators to back down on and said: “I advise you to come to your senses and not ruin your life.”

Ukraine’s foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba said his country’s priority for 2024 was to gain control over its skies. “In 2024, of course the priority is to throw Russia from the skies,” Kuleba said in an address to the World Economic Forum.

A new military doctrine that for the first time provides for the use of nuclear weapons will be put forward by Belarus, its defence minister, Viktor Khrenin, said at a meeting of Belarus’ security council on Tuesday.

A top Nato military officer said the war in Ukraine could “determine the fate of the world” and western armies and political leaders must drastically change the way they help Kyiv fend off invading Russian forces. The chair of the Nato military committee, Adm Rob Bauer also said, at a meeting of Nato’s senior officers at its headquarters in Brussels, that behind Putin’s rationale for the war is a fear of democracy.

US secretary of state Antony Blinken said he doesn’t think a ceasefire in Ukraine is near, but he could see a future where Ukraine stands strongly on its own two feet. Blinken was in conversation with WEF founder Klaus Schwab, and commentator Thomas Friedman in Davos.

One person has been killed and five people have been injured after Russian attacks on multiple settlements in Kherson oblast, according to regional authorities. Its governor, Oleksandr Prokudin shared a video of the damage to the area and said that Russian forces fired at the area for an hour. He added that a three people were injured in Russian attacks against Beryslav and an 81-year-old woman was injured an attack on the village of Romashkove.

British foreign secetary, David Cameron told delegates at the World Economic Forum in Davos, that there is a clear case for frozen Russian assets to be used to help pay for the reconstruction of Ukraine.

Russia is developing its relations with North Korea in all areas, including “sensitive” ones, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said on Wednesday. North Korea’s foreign minister held rare talks in the Kremlin with Putin, who has been invited by North Korean leader Kim Jong-un to visit the reclusive nuclear-armed country.

EU chief Ursula von der Leyen said she was “confident” of getting Hungary to drop its veto on a €50bn ($54bn) aid package for Ukraine at a crunch summit in two weeks. Hungary’s right wing prime minister, Viktor Orbán – Russia’s closest EU ally – refused in December to sign off on the assistance to Kyiv’s state spending over the next four years.

Russia will open polling stations for its March presidential election at three diplomatic missions in the US, its envoy in Washington said on Wednesday. Moscow said it had not yet decided if voting would take place in what it calls “unfriendly” European countries.

Ukraine downed 19 of 20 Iranian-designed attack drones launched by Russia at targets in southern Ukraine overnight, said Ukraine’s air force.

At least 17 people were injured after Russia fired two missiles at Kharkiv in north eastern Ukraine during the night, hitting apartment buildings and a medical centre, said officials on Wednesday. Three people were injured in the southern city of Odesa in a drone attack that forced the evacuation of about 130 people from an apartment building, regional governor Oleh Kiper said.

The Russian defence ministry said Wednesday that two winged Ukrainian drones and four missiles were shot down over the Belgorod region overnight and another around noon local time on Wednesday. It provided no details about damage or injuries.

Authorities in Estonia have arrested Russian professor, Viacheslav Morozov, on espionage charges in a case that his university said shows Russia’s intent to “orchestrate anti-democratic action” in the Baltic country.

Germany delivered military supplies to Ukraine, including ammunition for Leopard 1 tanks, armoured personnel carriers, missiles, drones and helmets. It also includes 16 Zetros tanker trucks, eight armored personnel carriers, 50 mobile satellite terminals, 25 Heidrun reconnaissance drones and 1,840 helmets.

Russian foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov will travel to New York next week for a meeting of the UN’s security council, confirmed foreign ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova.

Western companies supplied Russia with critical components worth $2.9bn in the first 10 months of 2023, despite sanctions on Moscow, the Ukrainian president’s office said on Wednesday.

Belgium does not oppose the confiscation of €280bn worth of frozen Russian central bank assets, but there needs to be a clear mechanism such as using the assets as collateral for Ukraine, prime minister Alexander De Croo said.

Ukraine needs financial support as well as military support in order to prevent the government in Kyiv resorting to printing money to keep the economy afloat, the chief economist of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Beata Javorcik, said in an interview at Davos.

Dargo

01-18-24, 01:00 PM

France to produce 78 Caesar howitzers for Ukraine in one year
France can produce 78 Caesar self-propelled howitzers for Ukraine by early 2025. Lecornu noted that in the coming weeks, Paris will supply six Caesar howitzers to Kyiv, with plans for the delivery of another 72 by early 2025. In total, around 78 howitzers are expected to be produced over the course of just over a year. "Currently, there are 49 of them [Caesar howitzers – ed.] in Ukraine, which has led to tactical success. Our initiative aims to produce 78 Caesar howitzers in 2024, and we encourage Europeans and other allies to co-finance the effort," Lecornu said in an interview with Le Parisien.

Lecornu noted that Ukraine bought the six howitzers at its own expense. The creation of a French and American-led artillery coalition, aimed at strengthening Kyiv’s capabilities, is to be announced in Paris on Thursday. Ukraine's Defence Minister Rustem Umierov was scheduled to visit the French capital, but his trip was cancelled for security reasons. He will join the planned events online.

Lecornu added that the Caesar long-range self-propelled howitzer, the flagship of French artillery pieces, costs between €3-4 million, a price he believes is "acceptable" to Paris' allies. Lecornu also said that the delivery of about 40 additional SCALP cruise missiles to Ukraine, promised by President Emmanuel Macron, will begin soon and will take a year, according to a schedule he did not elaborate upon. Macron had previously announced that he would visit Ukraine in February to finalise a bilateral agreement on "security guarantees". https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/01/18/7437812/

From January 2024, Paris will be delivering about 50 guided bombs every month until the end of the year, Lecornu shared. Most likely, Ukraine will receive their 227-kilogram version with the Hammer-250 kit, but there is a larger version weighing 907 kg. They will complement the American JDAM-ER bombs, already used by the Ukrainian Air Force.

Jimbuna

01-18-24, 02:11 PM

Kyiv targets St Petersburg oil facility in rare drone attack on Putin’s home city

Kyiv has targeted an oil facility in the Russian city of St Petersburg, more than 500 miles away from Ukraine, in a rare long-range drone attack on Vladimir Putin’s hometown.

Russian media claimed three drones were fired toward the city, two of which were downed in the Gulf of Finland, while one outlet claimed there had been a fire after a third drone exploded between two fuel tanks.

A Ukrainian military source has since told Reuters that the drones hit their targets, adding that the longer range attacks were part of a “new phase” of war.

St Petersburg governor Alexander Beglov has acknowledged the attack but said no one was injured. Russia’s Ministry of Defence (MoD), meanwhile, claimed they intercepted a drone “over the territory of the Leningrad region”, a reference to St Petersburg’s old name prior to the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991.

Russian authorities also reported a missile attack on the city of Belgorod, close to the border. Local governor Vyacheslav Gladkov said air defences had downed all 10 missiles but that one person had been injured.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russia-ukraine-war-live-putin-drone-strikes-b2480572.html

Dargo

01-18-24, 02:30 PM

In this tweet, I'm getting a bit personal for once because I need to get something off my chest. I hope everyone is okay with that. I think today was perfect proof of several things we should all think about. Although Germany announced military aid deliveries to Ukraine today, as it does almost every week, which includes the announcement of a further delivery of 15 Cheetah SPAAGs and 20 Marder 1A3 IFVs, this day remains in the minds of most people only because of this vote in the Bundestag. In contrast to almost every supporter of Ukraine, Germany supplies military aid to Ukraine every week. According to current figures, military aid to Ukraine will amount to 8 billion euros this year. Germany is providing 50% of all aid coming from the EU. Nevertheless, all people can think about today is that the Bundestag today rejected the CDU's motion to supply Taurus to Ukraine. It was clear that the governing parties would vote no today. In their eyes, the CDU motion is just a political move by the opposition, which is being carried out on the back of Ukraine.

In addition, a positive result today would have had no influence. Only the government (or rather the Chancellor) and the Federal Security Council have the final say on the #Taurus delivery. I would like to make it very clear that I am in favour of delivering the Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine. I am 100% in favour of that. Nevertheless, this motion in this form was so wrong today, and I can therefore fully understand the vote of the governing parties. Let's try to see it from the perspective of the governing parties. If they vote in favour of the motion, and it actually turns out to be positive, they have a lot of media hype on the same day: “Government divided”, “Pressure on the Chancellor increased — government majority for delivery” etc... But the vote doesn't achieve anything directly anyway. The fact that the governing parties voted unitedly against it at least shows that they are united. Nevertheless, they get all the hate. Win-win for the opposition. I am by no means saying that the whole Taurus issue is just theatre on the part of the CDU. For many, it is certainly a genuine desire to help Ukraine more intensively. Also with Taurus cruise missiles. But this is also the case with the Greens, the FDP and even parts of the SPD.

After all, leading figures in the Taurus movement within the government parties announced today that they themselves are already working on a motion to be submitted by February at the latest, which will include the delivery of Taurus cruise missiles. Of course, this does not directly mean that Taurus will actually go to Ukraine. But back to the actual vote. Seeing the reactions to my tweet with the voting result... honestly? That really shocks me. I've seen so many insults, threats, Nazi comparisons and more today, and not just on my account. Yes, there's a lot at stake. But you have to set boundaries somewhere. It makes me really sad and everyone needs to think about the fact how quickly such a vote — even if it didn't actually have any decision-making power — brings out the worst in so many people. People who just a few hours ago thanked Germany wholeheartedly for the last delivery of weapons to Ukraine. In the blink of an eye, the view of Germany changes. But this whole PR ****show could be over so quickly. All it needs is a yes from the Chancellor, or if it really fails because of other parties, then he must finally say so!

In my opinion, and also from what other people tell me, the image of Germany has changed massively in terms of support for Ukraine. Some even go so far as to credit me with a conscience, even if I, personally, wouldn't go that far. But all this shows us one thing very clearly. That people are very much guided by their emotions and ignore the rational side. Never mind that Germany is currently the world leader in supporting Ukraine. No country — not even the USA — is currently supplying more to Ukraine. Nevertheless, a country like Germany is criticised and hated internationally more than France, for example, which only provides a small proportion of German military aid. But by delivering the — really important, and I am very thankful for this — SCALP-EG, France is building up so many plus points that most people don't care. Don't even get me started on Italy, etc. But this tweet is not there to criticise other countries. I would just like to point out what Germany is actually doing for Ukraine, how many people simply don't seem to care, and how the focus is currently only on the Taurus. Many people don't seem to care about anything else.

I know exactly why I usually avoid the subject of Taurus if I can. Being directly exposed to all this hate today… Today was one of the very few days where I just wanted to switch off Twitter and never switch it on again. And that also makes me angry. Not just at some users here, but I am also angry at Scholz. I invest so much in this project. Apart from all the money, so many hours are spent on research, reporting, programming work, etc. And all I'll be thinking about for the next few days and will be reminded of every day is this ****ty vote. Which would be absolutely avoidable if we finally delivered Taurus to Ukraine. https://twitter.com/deaidua/status/1747745101361578045

Dargo

01-18-24, 02:41 PM

Day 694 of my 3 day war. I wanted to end this war by depriving Ukrainians of heating but I may have to end it cos I deprived Russians of heating.

I remain a master strategist. https://twitter.com/DarthPutinKGB/status/1748051326162891203

Skybird

01-18-24, 03:54 PM

I meet the Bundestag decision today with disgust and contempt. But then, I almost always react to Bundestag debates and decisons with boredom, suspicion, and contempt.

The call to deliver Taurus was made by the opposing CDU party. And in the government coalition there were not few voices who also demanded Babble Olaf to deliver Taurus in past months.

The government parties suddenly all voted against Taurus. Even FDP member Strack-Zimmermann, who is known over here to be an outspoken inner-coalition critic of Scholz and has chased him for months and two years to deliver more weapons and to deliver Taurus, suddenly voted against it. I mentioned her here because on the poliilcal stage here in Germany she is quite famous and popular due to her attacks on scholz and due to her demands, most peopl over here by now know her.

Thy voted against it due to pure tactical reasons. They could not stand that the call came not for themselves, but from the opposition - and thats why it was not supported, at least not by those in the coalition parties who had demanded Taurus themselves before.

Innerpolitical tactical show acts rank higher than the higher cause of this war. Like the blocking of aid in the US, just that the US problem has far more serious consequences.

Especially unforgiving for me is the reaosn scholz once gave why he refuses to dlejver Taurus. He said or let his speaker say that he is afraid they could use it against the the Kerch bridge. Olaf the great obviously cares a lot about this Russioan supply line not beign damaged. And that I do not forgive.

Lesson for Ukraine. Some months ago Zelenski was asked about his view of German support and Olaf Scholz. He immediately started to politically weasel out of the question context, closing finally with the hint one should ask him again about the Germans after the war. But everybody correctly red from his wording and behaviour that he neither trusted Germany, nor felt no contempt for German policy, he obviously is disappointed. And why shouldn't he be.

The overwhelming majority of Germans, not due to the Taurus issue but his general record, meets Olaf Scholz with unhidden contempt now. He is done as far as his reputation is concerned. He is one of the most dispised German politicians ever now. And the contempt is mutual - Olaf Scholz' party, the SPD, just announced they plan to launch the next election campaign with Bubble Olaf as their candidate again. More openly you cannot express your contemtp for the German people.

And they wonder about the rise of the AfD and so many people turning to them...?

I understand your post, Dargo. At least I think so. And I dont feel one bit offended, no worries. I often say living as a native German in Germany to me feels like an alien crashlanded on a foreign planet. To me, Germany is not Germany anymore, but some distorted image from a dystopia by Philip K. Dick.

BTW, Germany is NOT the world leader in support for Ukraine. The numbers these claims are based on, come from the Kieler Institute for World Economy, and I quoted their statistics repeatedly myself in the past, and in case of Germany, as I have explained before, they did not count just completed donations and aids and deliveries, but they also counted also what Olaf The Great has vaguely - his main characteristric: being vague, being non-binding - hinted at for the future, has announced to intend, indicated he might consider to give in the future. So, to put it friendly, they added announced and indicated future support that has not yet materialised as already done deeds. This way they come to a fiscal number and a count on military material that seems to indiacte Germany is the biggest contributor to the cause after the US, a claim Babble Olaf often repeated. But its not true. Guys, I warned you of this man since he was sworn in, and told you he is a notorious imposter and cowardly weasel that avoids responsibility whenever he can, his whole poticial career especially during his time as mayor of Hamburg is characterized by this. He also lied about the Zeitenwende. He lied about the special budget for the Bundeswehr. And I told you this man speaks lies as easily as you and I say "Good Morning!" or "Thank you!".

And my preferred refrain again: "Don't trust the Germans. Never."

Dargo

01-18-24, 05:00 PM

Was not meant to offend just an opinion of others globally we have crisis politically one by one democracy's getting those clowns voting in because politics of today can not solve basic problems sad fact is those clowns can not solve it either so a disappointment next they vote an extremer clown who neither can do what they want because what they want was a lie altogether. Heard German government say yeah we give 8 billion now with that EU 50 billion aid it is not meant that we Germany will pay for that on top our aid. Figures politicians at their best but still am glad to live in a democracy than in Russia, China or those other authoritarian countries. Am not that of a patriot, but that's the Dutch way we are not that polarized do not expect revolution will never happen here we are too depended on each other else we drown if we can do what we want without them interfering it is OK. For Ukraine, all bits help, no mater how many military or otherwise all is welcome the bigger countries do not give that much in regard to their GDP this was fact from the beginning but if we do the maths Russia has an economic foe against him of 25:1 let them beat that I know they can not same as the Tsars, Bolsheviks or Putin Russia never can be want it longs to be.

Dargo

01-18-24, 05:37 PM

Russia seeks scapegoat after downing of A50 aircraft
Internal investigations are being conducted in Russia following the downing of a Russian radar detection aircraft, with several top officers being suspended. "There is information that several internal investigations are being conducted there [in Russia – ed.]. So far it is known that a few top officers have been suspended, and it can be assumed that a scapegoat will be found and punished. There was the crew [of the A50 – ed.]. The information is being established and later it will be published with their names disclosed. This is a very painful loss for the Kremlin politically, militarily and in terms of image. So there is a strong emotional reaction." https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/01/18/7437870/

Jimbuna

01-19-24, 05:45 AM

Civilians in the West should prepare for 'all-out war' with Russia, NATO official says

A leading NATO official has warned that civilians in the West should prepare for all-out war with Russia.

Dutch Admiral Rob Bauer, chairman of the NATO military committee, said that while armed forces are already prepared for the outbreak of a war, citizens should also be ready for a conflict that would require a significant change to their lives.

Admiral Bauer said: "We have to realise it's not a given that we are in peace. And that's why we [NATO forces] are preparing for a conflict with Russia."

"But the discussion is much wider. It is also the industrial base and also the people that have to understand they play a role."

Admiral Bauer said Sweden had done the right thing by calling for its population to prepare for war earlier this month.

"It starts there," he said. "The realisation that not everything is plannable and not everything is going to be hunky dory in the next 20 years."

The official's warning comes ahead of the launch of NATO's biggest exercise since the Cold War, as the alliance practices repelling an invasion by Russian forces.

Some 90,000 troops are set to join the Steadfast Defender exercise that will run through May, including 20,000 troops from the UK.
https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war-latest-western-civilians-urged-to-prepare-for-all-out-war-with-russia-12541713

Jimbuna

01-19-24, 09:55 AM

Russian oil depot hit in Ukrainian drone attack

Fire has broken out over a large area of an oil storage depot in southern Russia after officials say it was hit by a Ukrainian drone.

Russian media say four oil tanks caught alight and the fire then spread over an area of 1,000 sq m (10,763sq ft).

Russian authorities in the Bryansk region say no-one was hurt.

The Bryansk governor said the drone was intercepted near the town of Klintsy and its explosives then fell on the oil depot.

The drone strike is the second on Russian oil facilities in two days.

An unprecedented attack targeted a major oil loading terminal in Russia's second city, St Petersburg, on Thursday.

Russian reports suggested that drone was shot down without causing damage but there were indications in Kyiv that the attack, so far from the Ukrainian border, marked a new phase in strategy.

"Yes, last night we hit the target. This thing crossed 1,250km (776 miles) last night," said Ukraine's Strategic Industries Minister Oleksandr Kamyshin on Thursday.

Russia's defence ministry said on Friday that its air defence systems had brought down a Ukrainian drone over Bryansk at 06:40 local time (03:40 GMT) and regional head Alexander Bogomaz said later that two further drones had been destroyed without damage.

As the fire raged for several hours at the Klintsy oil depot some 70km north of the Ukrainian border, black smoke was seen billowing over neighbouring railway tracks. More than 30 people were evacuated, the governor added.

There were also reports of a drone strike on a gunpowder factory near the city of Tambov, hundreds of kilometres north-east of the Ukrainian border.

A source at Ukraine's main intelligence directorate told media in Kyiv there would be further attacks on military targets inside Russia as most of its air defence and electronic warfare systems had been concentrated in occupied parts of Ukraine.

Russia has made little progress in its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in recent months, but the defence ministry claimed to have captured the village of Vesele on Thursday, close to the devastated city of Bakhmut in Ukraine's eastern Donetsk region. Kyiv has not confirmed the claim.

Ukraine has warned repeatedly that its army is facing severe ammunition shortages, but has set a target of producing a million drones domestically this year. Mr Kamyshin pointed out that the drone that targeted St Petersburg on Thursday cost only $350 to make.

Meanwhile, German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius has become the latest senior European figure to warn that Russia could seek to expand its war with Ukraine to a Nato member state in the coming years.

"We hear threats from the Kremlin almost every day, most recently again against our friends in the Baltic states," he told Tagesspiegel newspaper.

"Our experts calculate that in a period of five to eight years it could be possible," he said, adding that he wanted to shake up German society so that the Bundeswehr, Germany's military, would become "war-ready".

Nato commanders announced on Thursday that some 90,000 troops would take part in the alliance's biggest exercise since the Cold War. Steadfast Defender begins next week and will continue until May, involving all 31 member states and Sweden, which is set to join the alliance in the coming months.

Sweden's military chief and its civil defence minister both issued a warning this month to prepare for the possibility of war.

"My ambition with this is not to worry people; my ambition is to get more people to think about their own situation and their own responsibilities," commander-in-chief Gen Micael Byden explained.

Last October, a report by the German Council on Foreign Relations warned that once the Kremlin halted intensive fighting in Ukraine, Moscow "may need as little as six to 10 years to reconstitute its armed forces", and the Nato alliance would have be prepared to fend off a Russian attack.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68029235

Jimbuna

01-19-24, 01:58 PM

'World War 3 has already begun' as warning issued 'no chance of peace for decades'

In a sobering gathering of international experts at the Foreign Strategy conference on 'UK and Global Security: Scenario after the war between Russia and Ukraine' in central London today, dire warnings echoed through the halls as scholars and veterans dissected the complexities of the ongoing conflict.

Among the attendees was Marina Litvinenko, wife of Alexander Litvinenko, a British-naturalised Russian defector and former officer of the Russian Federal Security Service, who, as a prominent critic of Russian President Vladimir Putin, advised British intelligence and coined the term "mafia state".

The atmosphere was charged with a sense of urgency, as renowned figures such as Taras Kuzio, Alexander Osovtsov, and Vladimir Socor delivered grave assessments of the current geopolitical landscape.
Their insights suggest that the war in Ukraine is not merely a regional dispute but a harbinger of a much broader, global conflict-one that has, according to some, already initiated the ominous spectre of World War Three.

A chilling narrative unfolded during the conference which painted a picture of a world on the precipice, where peace may remain elusive for decades to come.

Taras Kuzio, Professor of Political Science at the National University of Kyiv-Mohyla Academy, started by addressing the role of external actors in prolonging the conflict. He emphasised the impact of President Biden's policy on military aid to Ukraine. He said: "War would have been over if Biden didn't push for his 'drip-drip' policy on military aid to Ukraine - same as Macron."

Kuzio drew attention to the stark differences in the approaches of various nations, pointing out that the UK openly supports the defeat of Russia.

"This is not just a war about Ukraine; the foundation of this war is that Ukraine doesn't exist," Kuzio claimed, urging the international community to revisit Putin's 2007 Munich speech, which was largely ignored.

He characterised Russia as a "Schizo-fascist state," accusing Putin of harbouring grand ambitions to enter Russia's history following Stalin's footsteps.

Kuzio's alarming statement continued, claiming that Russia and Iran share the goal of eradicating Ukraine and Israel "from the face of the earth". He added that these countries perceive themselves to be at war, while Western governments, particularly the Biden administration, are seemingly oblivious. "For them, World War Three has already begun," Kuzio added.

Alexander Osovtsov, a veteran of Russian politics, offered a broader perspective on the conflict, emphasising the interconnected nature of the ongoing war.

"It's one war, not two different wars - two pieces of one war - one war of one bloc, the bloc of aggressive dictatorships, Russia, Iran and their proxies." Osovtsov identified China as the current leader of this bloc and stressed the need for a united front from democratic countries worldwide.

"The main aim today is to destroy Russia's military forces - not to achieve peace," Osovtsov claimed, expressing scepticism about the possibility of political change in Russia. He labelled the Russian state as inherently distractive and suggested that the global community's duty is to oppose this bloc of aggressive dictatorships.

Vladimir Socor, a Romanian-American political analyst, focused on the likely outcome of the conflict, predicting the de-facto partition of Ukraine. He warned that such an outcome would not lead to compromise but rather to a total victory for Russia against the West.

Socor stressed that there would be no clear line between the state of war and peace, asserting that hostility may subside but will never end, drawing comparisons to the current status quo of South Korea against North Korean aggression.

"There will be no state of peace. Ukraine will be granted consolation prizes - the war will continue without end," Socor said. He highlighted the impracticality of offering Ukraine fast-track integration into Europe "after the war," as the war in Ukraine is multidimensional and likely to persist even after a ceasefire.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/world-war-3-has-already-begun-as-warning-issued-no-chance-of-peace-for-decades/ar-BB1gXmga?ocid=msedgntp&pc=U531&cvid=b59864feff5c47d9a9815e659e5589a6&ei=24

Skybird

01-19-24, 03:17 PM

Zeitenwende in action! Germany finally is flexing its muscles!

https://www-dw-com.translate.goog/de/ukraine-deutschlands-rechentrick-und-das-zwei-prozent-ziel-der-nato/a-68034577?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp

Or so it wants everybody to believe.

Jimbuna

01-20-24, 08:15 AM

Biden signs measure to avert shutdown but Ukraine aid remains frozen

Joe Biden on Friday signed a measure to keep the US government funded but as Washington shivered under its second major snowfall in a week, the bill did not unfreeze funding for Ukraine.

Hard-right House Republicans, led by the speaker, Mike Johnson, are ensuring the chances of more money and weapons for Kyiv in its fight with Moscow hinge on negotiations for immigration reform.

On Wednesday, the president welcomed Johnson and other senior Republicans, as well as Democratic leaders, to the White House for talks.

Though the meeting ended with the two sides still short of agreement on immigration and the southern border, Chuck Schumer of New York, the Democratic majority leader in the Senate, said he was optimistic a deal could be struck and aid to Ukraine thereby put back on the table.

“Once Congress avoids a shutdown, it is my goal for the Senate to move forward to the national security supplemental as soon as possible,” Schumer said. “Our national security, our friends abroad, and the future of democracy demands nothing less.”

On Friday, addressing a group of mayors at the White House, Biden said he was “ready to act” and believed, “God willing and the creek not rising”, the Senate would agree an immigration deal.

“The question for the speaker and the House Republicans,” Biden said, was: “Are they ready?”

After the Wednesday White House meeting, however, Johnson told reporters: “We understand that there’s concern about the safety, security and sovereignty of Ukraine. But the American people have those same concerns about our own domestic sovereignty and our safety and our security.”

Many observers suggest Republicans do not want a deal on immigration and the southern border, instead using the issue, and the concept of more aid for Ukraine, as clubs with which to attack Biden in an election year.

“The GOP is more interested in nursing grievances and stoking anger than actually solving problems,” Eugene Robinson, a Washington Post columnist, wrote. “That’s exactly what Donald Trump has trained them to do.”

Robinson went on to quote the Texas congressman Troy Nehls, who this month told CNN: “Let me tell you, I’m not willing to do too damn much right now to help a Democrat and to help Joe Biden’s approval rating. I will not help the Democrats try to improve this man’s dismal approval ratings. I’m not going to do it. Why would I?”

Amid such familiar dysfunction, one slightly dystopian possibility stood out: Democrats, senior party figures said, might provide the votes to keep Johnson as speaker – against a likely rebellion from his right – should he bring any Senate deal on immigration to the House floor, thereby putting Ukraine aid back on the table.

“Our job is not to save Johnson but I think it would be a mighty pity, if he did the right thing … for us not to support him,” Bennie Thompson of Mississippi, the ranking Democrat on the House homeland security committee, told Politico. “Up to this point, he’s been a fairly honest broker.”

In October, Democrats could have saved Johnson’s predecessor, Kevin McCarthy, from becoming the first speaker ever ejected by his own party – but chose not to.

Whether stoked by Trumpist isolationism or by equally Trumpist authoritarianism, and therefore preference for Vladimir Putin and Moscow, resistance to aid for Ukraine remains strong among Republicans in Congress.

But the party is not united. On the presidential campaign trail, Trump’s closest challenger for the Republican nomination, the former South Carolina governor and UN ambassador Nikki Haley, told voters in New Hampshire on Thursday that though the US did not “need to put troops on the ground anywhere … what you do have to do is deter.

“There’s a reason the Taiwanese want the US and the west to support Ukraine. Because they know if Ukraine wins, China won’t invade Taiwan.”

Haley also linked Ukraine aid to helping Israel against Hamas – another issue awaiting discussion should immigration talks succeed.

In the House, Michael McCaul, chair of the foreign affairs committee, tried a more emotive tactic, appealing to Republicans’ better angels – or at least to their foreign policy traditions.

Johnson, McCaul told the Post, “is going to have to make a hard decision about what to do. If we abandon our Nato allies and surrender to Putin in Ukraine, it’s not going to make the world safer, it’s going to make the world more dangerous … [Ronald] Reagan would never have surrendered to the Soviet Union. Maybe that’s a shift in our party.”

Most observers would suggest that it is, Republicans long having surrendered to Trump. In his own contribution to the debate over whether to do a deal on immigration and get back to supporting Ukraine, Trump struck a predictably harsh note, clearly meant to stiffen Johnson’s spine.

“I do not think we should do a border deal, at all, unless we get EVERYTHING needed to shut down the INVASION,” the former president wrote on his social media platform.

“Also, I have no doubt that our wonderful speaker of the House, Mike Johnson, will only make a deal that is PERFECT ON THE BORDER.”
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/jan/19/biden-signs-government-funding-ukraine-aid-frozen

Dargo

01-20-24, 02:57 PM

Despite overwhelming superiority in numbers of men and equipment despite Ukraine having to send in supplies across 2 rivers, Russia's second-best army still can't destroy Ukraine's small Dnipro river bridgehead.

https://i.postimg.cc/yNJfKvYj/20-01-24.jpg

Dargo

01-20-24, 04:10 PM

Defense firm denies German politician's claim on missile supplies to Ukraine
German defense contractor Taurus Systems said on Jan. 20 that it could build up its Taurus cruise missile production very quickly, even if Germany sent some to Ukraine. The company effectively denied a statement made earlier by Johannes Arlt, an expert at Germany's Social Democratic Party.

He claimed that Germany's defense industry would struggle to replenish its needed stockpiles if it sent the missiles to Ukraine. The head of the company that makes Taurus missiles, Joachim Knopf, posted on Twitter that it would not be a problem to quickly scale up production of new ones... https://news.yahoo.com/defense-firm-denies-german-politicians-195331917.html

Dargo

01-20-24, 06:09 PM

Explosion and air defence activity reported in several cities in Russia. Smolensk, Tula, Oryol. One of the hits in Tula was at the Shcheglovskiy Val plant. A Russian military-industrial complex enterprise that manufactures military products. It is known that this is one of the places in Russia where the Pantsir-S(1) is being assembled, as well as armoured vehicles. Almost 3 years into Russia's "special military operation" and these Ukrainian attacks on strategic targets well within Russian borders are becoming increasingly routine.

The terminal of the Russian Novatek natural gas company caught on fire in the port of Ust-Luga (an important Russian export hub nearly 1000 km from Ukraine) in the Leningrad region, regional governor Alexander Drozdenko announced on Telegram. This is one of the key sea terminals where Russia loads its oil on the "shadow fleet" of tankers and sells it to China.
https://i.postimg.cc/Hxkd8z5K/tassustluga.png

The Russian news channel Shot reports on Telegram that residents nearby heard drone sounds followed by explosions. Russian news site Fontanka speaks of an attack by two drones.

Jimbuna

01-21-24, 07:16 AM

Explosion at St Petersburg gas terminal, officials say

An explosion has occurred at a gas export terminal near the city of St Petersburg in Russia, officials say.

The blast caused a large fire, state-owned RIA Novosti news agency said. It said the fire had been contained, and there were no reports of injuries.

The cause of the fire is not known, but local media have reported that drones had been seen in the area.

Both Russia and Ukraine have used drones in the current conflict. Ukraine usually does not admit such attacks.

Russia launched its full-scale of invasion of Ukraine nearly two years ago, but has made little progress in recent months.

On Sunday, 25 people were killed and 20 injured by shelling in the Russian-controlled city of Donetsk in eastern Ukraine, Alexei Kulemzin, the city's Russian-installed mayor said. Kyiv has also not commented on that attack.

Regarding Sunday's explosion near St Petersburg, regional governor Alexander Drozdenko said a "high alert regime" was in place after the incident at the terminal of gas producer Novatek, in Ust-Luga on the Gulf of Finland. He shared a video of what appeared to be a large fire.

Novatek later announced that work at the terminal had been suspended, and said the fire was the result of "external influence", without providing further details.

Russian news outlet Shot quoted local residents as saying they heard a drone followed by several explosions at Ust-Luga, close to Russia's border with Estonia.

Fontanka, a St Petersburg-based news outlet, said at least two drones were spotted flying towards the city before the fire broke out.

It said there were three large international tankers near the fire, although there were no reports of damage to them.

The BBC has not verified the details of what happened, and there has been no comment from Ukrainian officials.

Russia's defence ministry also said it shot down three Ukrainian drones in Smolensk Region, close to its border with Ukraine, on Saturday night. It earlier said it had shot down drones over Tula and Oryol, both in western Russia.

There were no reports of casualties.

Russia and Ukraine have been targeting each other's energy infrastructure, and on Friday a fire broke out at an oil depot in Bryansk, south-west Russia, which Moscow blamed on a Ukrainian drone strike.

That came a day after an attack targeted a major oil loading terminal in St Petersburg.

On Thursday, Russia claimed to have captured a village close to the devastated city of Bakhmut, in Ukraine's eastern Donetsk region. Kyiv has not confirmed the claim.

Ukraine has warned repeatedly that its army is facing severe ammunition shortages, but has set a target of producing a million drones domestically this year.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68046347

Skybird

01-21-24, 07:21 AM

It seems the Ukrainians found a new favourite hobby. :D

Jimbuna

01-21-24, 07:23 AM

Russia has lost more than 376,000 troops since start of the war, says Ukraine

Russia has lost approximately 376,030 troops in Ukraine since the beginning of the war the general staff of Ukraine’s armed forces reported on Sunday. The number, which has not been independently verified, includes 760 casualties over the past day.

The figures, which cover the period from the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion on 24 February 2022 up to 21 January 2024, also include details such as the number of weapons, vehicles and defence systems Ukraine says Russia has lost. According to the release, this includes 6,181 tanks, 11,466 armored fighting vehicles, 11,862 vehicles and fuel tanks, 8,875 artillery systems and 968 multiple-launch rocket systems among others since the start of the war.

Russia's capture of Krokhmalne is a 'temporary phenomenon', says Ukrainian military

Russia’s capture of the village of Krokhmalne in the Kharkiv region, is a “temporary phenomenon,” the Ukrainian ground forces command spokesperson Volodymyr Fityo said, reports the Kyiv Independent citing comments made on the Ukrainian digital broadcasting station Hromadske on Sunday.

“We simply don’t report on the repulse of 100-200 meters, and for Russian propagandists, any victory must be presented to explain why they lost 7,055 soldiers at the front in the Khortytsia zone of responsibility in January alone,” Fityo said during the live televised broadcast.

He added that the frontlines shift daily and that the loss of the small village, which had a prewar population of 45, is a “temporary phenomenon.” Fityo also said that Ukrainian troops had been moved to prepared reserve positions to hold the defence and prevent Russia from advancing further.

Russia’s defence ministry said on Sunday, in its morning summary, that Russian forces had taken control of the village of Krokhmalne.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/jan/21/russia-ukraine-war-live-volodymyr-zelenskiy-vladimir-putin-latest-updates?filterKeyEvents=true#filter-toggle-desktop

Skybird

01-22-24, 06:43 AM

[TS] Against the backdrop of the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine, the largest NATO maneuver in decades begins on Monday. According to NATO, the "Steadfast Defender" military exercise with around 90,000 soldiers is intended to rehearse a Russian attack on Alliance territory as a real-life scenario. The large-scale maneuver will last until the end of May. All 31 alliance countries and the accession candidate Sweden are taking part in the four-month military exercise. According to Rob Bauer, Chairman of the NATO Military Committee, the military alliance is using the exercise to "prepare for a conflict with Russia and terrorist groups".

In June, NATO had already held the large-scale NATO air force maneuver "Air Defender" over German airspace. It was the largest deployment exercise of air forces since the founding of NATO almost 75 years ago. It involved 250 aircraft and around 10,000 soldiers from 25 countries. (Reuters)

Skybird

01-22-24, 11:02 AM

https://www.economist.com/by-invitation/2024/01/19/ukraines-chief-spy-argues-that-its-security-deal-with-britain-is-a-game-changer

Reasonable - or wishful thinking? I am undecided.

The agreement between Ukraine and Britain could prove much more significant. It is the first of its kind to touch the core of the former Russian empire; Mr Putin considers Ukraine to be an integral part of “historical” Russia. It is the first between Ukraine and a major power which enshrines emerging geopolitical reality in a legal agreement. It marks the deepest shift so far in the West’s approach to the Russian concept of its “spheres of influence”.
The subdued reaction of the British media to the agreement shows how normal and routine Anglo-Ukrainian defence and security relations have become in the public mind.If he is not mistaken there...
Couldn't it also simply mean - a lack of enthusism of media and public?

Dargo

01-22-24, 12:44 PM

https://www.economist.com/by-invitation/2024/01/19/ukraines-chief-spy-argues-that-its-security-deal-with-britain-is-a-game-changer

Reasonable - or wishful thinking? I am undecided.

If he is not mistaken there...
Couldn't it also simply mean - a lack of enthusiasm of media and public?A Agreement on Security Co-operation alone with the UK is no game changer would get serious if the EU joined this agreement and why always those titles "game changer" that hyping will not make it real. I think that more military aid would be yeah I gone use it the game changer. Thinking Putin will change his mind when some country signs an agreement with Ukraine is wishful thinking. Just send Ukraine what it needs, then instead signing papers that will force Russia to withdraw.

Jimbuna

01-22-24, 12:49 PM

'Don't worry,' EU foreign affairs chief tells Ukrainians as ministers focus on Middle East

Arriving at the foreign affairs’ meeting this morning in Brussels, EU foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, said: “The fact that we are engaged [in] looking for a solution in the Middle East doesn’t mean that we are not continuing supporting Ukraine.”

Ukraine’s foreign minister is expected to speak at today’s session via videoconference.

Don’t worry, don’t worry, Ukrainians have not to worry – European support continues as stronger as ever, and it will continue.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/jan/22/russia-ukraine-war-live-attack-shahed-drones-military-putin-zelenskiy-latest

Talk is cheap at times.

Jimbuna

01-22-24, 12:52 PM

Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, said he had “very productive talks” with Poland’s prime minister, Donald Tusk, who visited Kyiv today. The Ukrainian leader said the two countries would be able to resolve problematic issues.

Tusk underlined that Warsaw and Kyiv would work in a spirit of friendship to resolve differences.

Denys Shmyhal, Ukraine’s prime minister, said that he “discussed the free movement of goods across the border” with Tusk and that the sides agreed to resume intergovernmental consultations.

EU foreign ministers discussed support to Ukraine.
With ministers focusing much of their attention today on the situation in the Middle East, the bloc’s foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, insisted that Ukrainians should not worry and that the EU’s support for Kyiv would continue as strong as ever.

Borrell also said Ukraine “needs more and faster military support now”.
Latvia’s foreign minister, Krišjānis Kariņš, said that “if we do not help Ukraine stop Russia now, it will be only all the more expensive for us later”.

Elina Valtonen, Finland’s foreign minister, said there’s a need to fulfil Ukraine’s immediate defence needs, but that Europe also needs to ramp up its defence industry and capabilities.

Zelenskiy announced a proposal aimed at granting ethnic Ukrainians and their descendants Ukrainian citizenship.

There is movement toward a meeting between Zelenskiy and Hungary’s prime minister, Viktor Orbán, a senior Ukrainian official said.

The UK updated its travel advice “to advise against all but essential travel” to the regions of Zakarpattia, Ivano-Frankivsk, Ternopil, Chernivtsi in western Ukraine. Previously, there was advice against all travel to the whole of Ukraine.

The UK has provided satellite photographs of North Korean cargo shipments to Russia to a panel of UN experts.

The Kremlin has drawn up a bill to confiscate property and valuables from Ukraine war critics convicted of, among other crimes, “discrediting the Russian army” or calling for foreign sanctions.

Dargo

01-22-24, 01:16 PM

Turkey’s parliament will on Tuesday vote on Sweden’s accession to NATO, CNN Turk reported, ending more than a year of delays that severely strained Ankara’s ties with Western allies. Turkey’s ratification would leave Hungary as the last holdout in the accession process, which Sweden and its neighbour Finland began in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine nearly two years ago. https://english.alarabiya.net/News/world/2024/01/22/Turkish-parliament-to-vote-Tuesday-on-Sweden-s-NATO-membership-Report

Jimbuna

01-22-24, 01:28 PM

I'd rather they threw Hungary out and got on with it.

Jimbuna

01-23-24, 09:46 AM

'Send back our husbands' - Russian women in rare protest

In a function room on the edge of Moscow, something unusual is happening.

A group of women are publicly criticising the Russian authorities. Their husbands are among the 300,000 reservists mobilised by Russian President Vladimir Putin for the war in Ukraine in autumn 2022.

And they want them home.

"When will our husbands be considered to have discharged their military duty?" asks Maria. "When they're brought back with no arms and legs? When they can't do anything at all because they're just vegetables? Or do we have to wait for them to be sent back in zinc coffins?"

The women met via social media and have formed a group called The Way Home. They have differing views on the war. Some claim to support it. Others are sceptical about the Kremlin's "special military operation". What seems to unite them is the belief that the mobilised men have done their fair share of the fighting and should be back home with their families.

It is an opinion the authorities do not share.

In Russia public criticism of anything related to the war comes with a risk. Most of the speakers choose their words very carefully. They know there's a string of laws in place now in Russia for punishing dissent. Their frustration, though, is palpable.

"To begin with we trusted our government," Antonina says. "But should we trust them now? I don't trust anyone."

Members of the group are here to share their stories with a local councillor, Boris Nadezhdin. He has been critical of the "special military operation" from the outset.

Curiously Mr Nadezhdin is one of the few government critics who has been allowed onto national television since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. He's an occasional guest on TV talk shows.

Right now, the politician is trying to get on the ballot for the presidential election. He maintains that the war has damaged Vladimir Putin's domestic popularity.

"Putin was very popular in Russia because after the 1990s he brought stability and security," Mr Nadezhdin tells me. "Stability and security were the main reason for supporting Putin. Now more and more people have already understood that stability and security are finished."

Russian women campaigning for the return of their mobilised husbands, sons or brothers have come in for criticism from different quarters. Opponents of the war have little sympathy. They condemn the men for obeying the mobilisation order and for taking part in the war.

Supporters of the Kremlin portray the women as Western stooges.

In a recent interview with the Fontanka news site, Russian MP Andrei Kartapolov, who heads the Russian Duma's defence committee, claimed that the call for demobilisation was the work of "[Russia's] enemies". He appeared to suggest that the Ukrainian military or the CIA was behind it.

Mr Kartapolov also invoked World War Two.

"Can you imagine a delegation of wives coming to the Kremlin in autumn 1942 and telling Stalin: 'Let those men who were called up in 1941 go home. They've been fighting for a year already.' No-one would ever have thought of doing that."

Maria Andreeva, whose husband and cousin have been drafted and despatched to Ukraine, finds Mr Kartapolov's comments insulting.

"He dares to liken the special military operation to the Second World War," Maria tells me. "Back then Russia's aim was survival. We'd been attacked. There was full mobilisation and martial law. It's the total opposite of what is happening now."

Maria says that she is not only campaigning to bring back her family members. She wants to prevent more Russians being called up and sent to the front line.

"We do not want a second wave of mobilisation," she says. "We're against civilians being used in a military conflict. And we want all Russian citizens to understand this could affect them, too.

"Some people act like ostriches. They stick their heads in the sand and try not to think about what's happening. I can understand them. It's hard to accept that, in your country, the state doesn't need you to be happy - it just treats you as biological material. But if people want to survive, sooner or later they need to recognise this and say that they don't agree."

How likely is a "second wave" of mobilisation in Russia? Last December President Putin appeared to rule it out - for now. Live on Russian TV the Kremlin leader claimed that in 2023 the Russian authorities had managed to recruit nearly half a million volunteers to fight in Ukraine.

"Why do we need mobilisation? As things stand there is no need," the Kremlin leader concluded.

Of course, "as things stand" doesn't mean "never going to happen". Situations can change.

For example, in March 2022 President Putin declared: "Conscripted soldiers are not participating and will not participate in the fighting. There will not be an additional call-up of reservists, either. Only professional soldiers are taking part."

"Partial mobilisation" was announced six months later.

To raise awareness Maria and other wives of mobilised reservists have started a new tradition. Every Saturday they don white headscarves and travel into the centre of Moscow. Near the Kremlin walls they lay flowers at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier. Red carnations are placed by the Eternal Flame. It is their form of peaceful protest.

On its Telegram channel The Way Forward explains that these flowers are for honouring "the lives of loved ones. To honour the memory of those killed in all wars. To honour the memory of our guys."

The group also believes that flower-laying is a way of saying "never again".

But how aware is Russian society? How much interest is there from the public in what the families of mobilised reservists are saying? Antonina says that since her partner was drafted, she hasn't felt much support from those around her. When he received his call-up papers in October 2022, he'd asked friends to keep an eye out for Antonina.

"They invited me to celebrate new year with them a year ago," she says. "But all evening they kept telling me that my husband was a total mug for going there [to Ukraine]."

Antonina claims that, despite being diagnosed with stomach ulcers, her partner was deployed to an assault unit in Ukraine. She says that he telephoned her on 4 December.

"He was crying. He was frightened. It sounded like he was saying goodbye."

She says he called again on 13 December. That was the last time she heard from him. Antonina says she's since been told that her partner was wounded in action.

"There are some people who want to fight. Who volunteer for it and sign contracts," Antonina says. "Let them fight. But send us back our husbands who don't want to be there. They've done their duty to the motherland. Send them home.

"I used to have enormous respect for Vladimir Putin. Now I'm more neutral. I still find it hard to believe that he knows this kind of thing is happening. But if he really does see us as traitors and outcasts for wanting our husbands back, I don't understand why he'd have this attitude towards citizens who once voted for him."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68056939

Dargo

01-23-24, 03:56 PM

Russia loses 400 soldiers per square kilometer in Ukraine, Umerov says
In a recent address during the opening of the Defense Contact Group meeting (Ramstein format), Ukraine’s Minister of Defense Rustem Umerov highlighted Ukraine’s resilience in the face of Russian aggression. He pointed out that despite Russia’s significant military operations, they struggled to achieve their objectives and suffered heavy losses. Umerov stated that Russia is currently losing approximately 400 soldiers for every square kilometer of Ukrainian territory captured. Additionally, Russia used six times more artillery shells than Ukrainian forces, yet it took them a year to capture Bakhmut and Mariinka. Umerov highlighted the significance of defense technologies, which will play a central role in Ukraine’s defense agenda for 2024. He pointed out that while Russia had invested heavily in FPV drones, Ukraine had made progress in developing its countermeasures.

“Despite a sixfold artillery advantage, the enemy failed to achieve any significant results. Imagine how the situation on the battlefield would change if the proportions were 1 to 1,” Umerov said. In his address, Umerov encouraged collaboration and investment in defense technologies, joint production, and long-term contracts with interested companies. He emphasized that Ukraine could outsmart Russian forces through an asymmetric approach, including technology integration, precise decision-making, and coordination. “In just two months, the terrorist regime unleashed over 600 rockets and more than 1000 Shahed drones on Ukrainian cities. The number of Shahed drones launched increased by over a third,” Umerov said.

Despite facing thousands of rocket attacks from Russia in recent months, Umerov mentioned that Ukraine’s air defense capabilities had improved significantly. The country had also focused on building fortifications and investing in technologies to enhance its defense. “Despite their resources and advantage in weapon production, Russia has not made significant progress toward achieving its strategic objectives,” Umerov said. “The entire Russian military machine is operating at full capacity to attack small Ukrainian villages.” Umerov also thanked countries that have taken the lead in developing coalition capabilities:

The United States, Denmark, and the Netherlands – Aviation Coalition
France – Artillery Coalition
Great Britain and Norway – Naval Coalition
Germany and Poland – Armored Coalition
Estonia and Luxembourg – IT Coalition
Lithuania – Demining Coalition

He also expressed his gratitude to the United States, France, Belgium, the United Kingdom, Germany, Canada, Norway, and other partners for military cooperation. Umerov added that recently Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense established a two-tier procurement system based on NATO principles. In conclusion, Minister Umerov conveyed Ukraine’s determination to defend its sovereignty and expressed gratitude to its international partners for their support in developing Ukraine’s military potential. He underlined the importance of innovation and technology in maintaining a strategic advantage in the ongoing war.

“We can outsmart the enemy by applying an asymmetric approach. Through technology integration, training, precise decision-making, and coordination. By improving personnel selection, supply chain management, and digital solutions. This will provide us with technological and strategic superiority,” he concluded. https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/01/23/russia-loses-400-soldiers-per-square-kilometer-in-ukraine-umerov-says/

Skybird

01-23-24, 05:36 PM

The Turkish parliament ratified the Swedish membership - but Erdoghan needs to sign it next.

Next hurdle is Orban. Who wants frozen money from the EU. Thats the EU whose Super-Uschi is being sued by the EU parliament for having allowed him a first rate of money paid out already.

Jimbuna

01-24-24, 11:13 AM

The Russian defence ministry says a military plane has crashed in Belgorod, near the Ukrainian border.

"On board were 65 captured Ukrainian army servicemen being transported for exchange, six crew members and three escorts," the ministry says.

The local governor says there are no survivors - the BBC cannot yet verify who was on board, or what caused the plane to crash.

A spokesperson for Ukrainian military intelligence did say a prisoner exchange had been planned for today.

Verified video shows a plane going down near the village of Yablonovo, 70km (44 miles) to the north-east of Belgorod.

Russia's foreign ministry accuses Ukraine of shooting down the plane - but provides no evidence.

The plane was flying from the Chkalovsky air base near Moscow to Belgorod, Russia says.

Jimbuna

01-24-24, 11:26 AM

Germany's Scholz says other EU countries must do more for Ukraine

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has called on European countries to do more to support Ukraine in its fight against Russia's ongoing invasion.

"The contributions that the European states have so far earmarked for 2024 are not yet large enough," Scholz said in an interview with Die Zeit newspaper. "Europe must discuss what each country can contribute so that we can significantly increase our support."

Ukraine must be able to defend its territory, Scholz said, "and this must not fail due to a lack of air defence, artillery, tanks or ammunition.

"It is my firm conviction that Europe must do more to support Ukraine in the defence of its own country," he told the newspaper.

Scholz also complained that Germany has faced frequent criticism from other European Union countries over its support for Ukraine despite providing extensive aid for the country.
"I am rather irritated that I have to constantly face criticism in Germany that the government is doing too little and is too hesitant. Yet we are doing more than all other EU states, much more," Scholz said. "That's why I'm currently on the phone a lot with my counterparts and asking them to do more."

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, meanwhile, reiterated that he continues to press Scholz's government about acquiring German-made Taurus cruise missiles.

Scholz has so far rejected the delivery of the advanced missiles to Ukraine, apparently out of concern that firing on Russian territory with the German missiles would lead to a further escalation of the conflict.

Kuleba once again sought to address those concerns in an interview with the news outlets Bild, Welt.tv and Politico.

Dmytro Kuleba reiterated that Ukraine is seeking the advanced missiles from Germany in order to strike Russian military infrastructure on occupied Ukrainian territory, not to hit targets in Russia.

"We don't need a Taurus to attack Moscow," Kuleba emphasized in the interview.

In the German parliament last week, lawmakers from Scholz's three-party coalition blocked a motion from the conservative opposition CDU/CSU bloc to deliver Taurus missiles to Ukraine.

However, many coalition lawmakers, especially from the Greens and the market-oriented Free Democrats (FDP), have expressed personal support for shipping Taurus missiles to Ukraine despite voting against the motion.

At a European Union summit next week, national leaders plan to discuss further arms aid for Ukraine, partly at the request of Scholz.

Ukraine has been fending off Russia's full-scale military invasion for almost two years, and is heavily dependent on Western military aid.

Wednesday marks the 700th day since the full-scale war began, although lower-level fighting broke out in eastern Ukraine in 2014, followed by Russia's annexation of Ukraine's Crimean Peninsula.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/germany-s-scholz-says-other-eu-countries-must-do-more-for-ukraine/ar-BB1hc4rT?ocid=msedgntp&pc=U531&cvid=8db9d9d8d63b4c219d6e190085d3ecba&ei=30

Dargo

01-24-24, 12:38 PM

The Hungarian government still supports NATO membership for Sweden. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán made this known by telephone Wednesday to Jens Stoltenberg, the secretary general of the military alliance. This appears to remove the last obstacle to Sweden's joining the military alliance. "I also stressed that we continue to urge the Hungarian parliament to approve Sweden's accession and complete ratification as soon as possible," Orbán wrote in a message on X. The parliament returns from recess in mid-February.

Jimbuna

01-24-24, 01:02 PM

Viktor who?

Skybird

01-25-24, 06:31 AM

The German weasel does its egg-dance again.

https://www-dw-com.translate.goog/de/deutschland-erw%C3%A4gt-marschflugk%C3%B6rper-ringtausch-f%C3%BCr-ukraine/a-68078345?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp

In contrast, Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann, Chairwoman of the Bundestag's Defense Committee, does not see the ring swap as a good solution. "Ukraine needs Taurus, and it needs it now," she said. The sense of a ring swap is not clear to her. "Then Taurus will no longer be available for the Bundeswehr and Ukraine will still have none. Storm Shadow is not an equivalent replacement. In this respect, the proposal is unsuitable," said the FDP politician.

Green politician Anton Hofreiter was even more critical. The ring swap idea "exemplifies the weakness" of Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) in supporting Ukraine, Hofreiter told dpa. The message is: "Great Britain can deliver, but Germany cannot." An exchange in rings would be better than nothing. But the German Taurus system is significantly better than the weapons systems of the allies, as it can hardly be disrupted by electronic warfare, emphasized the Chairman of the Bundestag's European Affairs Committee.
The Taurus is superior to Storm Shadow/SCALP. It is better hardened against electronic jamming, can navigate completely without GPS if GPS is taken out due to jamming, has a significantly higher range and a slightly bigger Booom - but that in a warhead designed to penetrate through thicker layers of concrete.

Babble Olaf is concerned however that it might interrupt the Russian logistics chain over the Kerch bridge. He cares very much for Russian troops not running out of supplies. He thinks that would escalate the war.

Yeah. Dont ask. There are things in this universe for which there are no answers.

Two days ago there was an essay in a German newspaper (now behind a paywall unfortunately) pointing out that neither the US nor Germany have a real interest in Russia loosing the war. They still want to just nudge and encourage it to voluntarily pull out and that way ending the West's misery. The great art of pedagogics at work. My mind is not smart enough to wrap itself around this complex matter. I assume its based on this old wisdom according to which you first must loose all before you can be set free.

Better of course it is if you make somebody else loosing in your place.

Jimbuna

01-25-24, 01:54 PM

Igor Girkin shot down a passenger jet, then insulted Putin. Which one put him in jail?

The last time I saw Igor Girkin was five years ago in the stairwell of a Moscow news agency.

"Would you consider giving me an interview?" I asked. "No," he replied sharply and scurried away.

I saw him again today. No stairwell. This time, Girkin was in a caged dock surrounded by police in the Moscow City Court.

Along with other media we were allowed in to film him for just one minute before the end of his trial.

A police dog kept barking. Girkin found that amusing. The verdict less so. Minutes later he was found guilty on extremism charges and sentenced to four years in a penal colony.

This wasn't his first conviction.

In The Hague in 2022, in absentia, Girkin was found guilty of the murder of 298 people: the passengers and crew of Malaysian Airlines flight MH17.

The Boeing jet had been shot down over eastern Ukraine in 2014 by Russian-controlled forces in the early stages of Russia's war there.

Girkin was one of three men sentenced to life imprisonment. A judgement he ignored.

A year after we'd met in the stairwell, I managed to get through to Girkin on the phone and ask him about the Hague.

"I do not recognise the authority of the Dutch court on this matter," he told me.

"I am a military man and I am not going to accept that a civilian court in a foreign country has the authority to convict a person who took part in someone else's civil war, only because their civilians were killed.

"Do you know who shot down [the plane]?"

"The rebels didn't shoot down the Boeing. I have nothing more to say."

"If it wasn't the rebels, then was it Russian soldiers?" I asked.

"That's it. Goodbye." He hung up.

Now he is going to prison. But not for mass murder. And not for life.

So, who exactly is Girkin - also known under his pseudonym as Igor Strelkov - and why has a Moscow court sent him to jail?

He is a former FSB officer in Russia's domestic security service. In 2014 he played a key role in the fighting in Ukraine's Donbas region: a conflict engineered and orchestrated by Moscow.

He organised and commanded pro-Russia militias in eastern Ukraine.

The Dutch court would later rule that Russia had been in control of the separatist forces fighting in eastern Ukraine and that Girkin had helped to bring the Buk missile system into Ukraine that was used to shoot down flight MH17.

Following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, ultranationalist Girkin became a prominent pro-war blogger.

He became increasingly critical of the way the Russian authorities were waging the war: not hard enough, in his view.

He founded a hard line nationalist movement called The Club of Angry Patriots.

His problems began when he started to take that anger out on President Vladimir Putin.

Public criticisms of the Russian president turned to insults. In a post last year, Girkin described Putin as "a non-entity" and "a cowardly waste of space".

A few days later he was arrested. Now he's been tried and convicted.

Of course, a four-year prison sentence is mild in comparison to other recent punishments delivered by Russian courts.

Last year pro-democracy activist Vladimir Kara-Murza was sentenced to a quarter of a century behind bars after being convicted of treason, a case he and his supporters insist was politically motivated.

How would the "Angry Patriots" react to Girkin's prison term? Would they pour on to the streets in protest?

Not exactly. A few dozen supporters gathered outside the Moscow City Court to chant "Freedom to Strelkov!" but there was little hint of optimism in their voices.

"They've put a Russian national patriot on trial," Denis tells me. "I hope our people wake up and fight. Unfortunately, we don't see much pushback. Everyone seems to be hiding away."

Also in the crowd was retired colonel and outspoken ultranationalist Vladimir Kvachkov.

Having informed me that "Russia will always be the enemy of the Anglo-Saxon West" and assured me that the break-up of the United Kingdom was inevitable, Mr Kvachkov claimed that Girkin was being punished for "fighting against the system."

In recent years the "system" concentrated on clearing the Russian political landscape of pro-democracy, pro-Western critics and challengers.

A prison sentence for Girkin suggests the Russian authorities have now decided to crackdown on critics from the opposite end of spectrum: the so-called ultra-patriots.

Last year's mutiny by Wagner mercenaries led by Yevgeny Prigozhin may be the reason.

The Putin system survived the challenge. But that drama will have alerted the Kremlin to the potential dangers from highly motivated nationalistic and patriotic elements in Russian society.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68091877

Dargo

01-25-24, 02:33 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rpi5vzAkbBQ

Jimbuna

01-26-24, 11:24 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vp0MssW1nCo

Jimbuna

01-26-24, 11:43 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G1vN_cwTXSY

Jimbuna

01-27-24, 01:26 PM

Ukrainian counter-attacks were holding Russians back from taking full control of Avdiivka, the UK Ministry of Defence said in its latest intelligence report. Russian forces have suffered heavy personnel and armoured vehicle losses, frequently caused by Ukrainian uncrewed aerial vehicle munitions. Though they continue to attempt to bypass Ukrainian fortifications by entering the city edges via service tunnels – a method of infiltration they have been attempting since October 2023 – “Ukrainian counter-attacks are holding Russian forces from progressing further within the city”.

Ukrainian officials say Russia has provided no credible evidence to back its claims that their own forces shot down a military transport plane carrying Ukrainian prisoners of war who were to be swapped for Russian POWs.

Joe Biden will host the German chancellor, Olaf Scholz, at the White House on 9 February to discuss aid to Ukraine. This comes as the US president has been pressing Congress to embrace a bipartisan Senate deal to pair border enforcement measures with aid for Ukraine. The talks have hit a critical point as Republican opposition mounts. Some Republicans have set a deal on border security as a condition for further Ukraine aid.

The Russian president, Vladimir Putin, and the Belarusian president, Alexander Lukashenko, are in Russia’s Leningrad oblast today to attend the opening ceremony of a memorial complex. The ceremony marked the 80th anniversary of the battle that lifted the siege of Leningrad.

The Biden administration has announced the approval of a $23bn deal to sell F-16 warplanes to Turkey, after Ankara ratified Sweden’s Nato membership, the state department said.

The US is planning to station nuclear weapons in the UK for the first time in 15 years amid a growing threat from Russia, according to a report. Warheads three times as strong as the Hiroshima bomb would be located at RAF Lakenheath in Suffolk under the proposals, the Daily Telegraph reported.

Skybird

01-28-24, 07:03 AM

Giggle-giggle: just hours after the Turkish ratification document regarding Sweden arrive din Washington, Biden has nodded off the sale of 40 F-16V and kit for the modernisation of 79 older Turkish F-16s.
I was a bit worried that they maybe would revive the sale of F-35s again.

Jimbuna

01-28-24, 07:06 AM

‘Corrupt Ukrainian officials stole £31.5m meant to buy arms for war with Russia’

Employees from a Ukrainian arms firm conspired with defence ministry officials to embezzle almost 40 million US dollars (£31.5 million) earmarked to buy 100,000 mortar shells for the war with Russia, Ukraine’s security service has reported.

The SBU said late on Saturday that five people have been charged, with one detained while trying to cross the Ukrainian border. If found guilty, they face up to 12 years in prison.

The investigation comes as Kyiv attempts to crack down on corruption in a bid to speed up its membership of the European Union and Nato.

Officials from both blocs have demanded widespread anti-corruption reforms before Kyiv can join them.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was elected on an anti-corruption platform in 2019, long before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

Both the president and his aides have portrayed the recent firings of top officials, notably that of Ivan Bakanov, former head of the State Security Service, in July 2022, as proof of their efforts to crack down on corruption.

Security officials say the current investigation dates back to August 2022, when officials signed a contract for artillery shells worth 1.5 billion hryvnias (£31 million) with arms firm Lviv Arsenal.

After receiving payment, company employees were supposed to transfer the funds to a business registered abroad, which would then deliver the ammunition to Ukraine.

However, the goods were never delivered and the money was instead sent to various accounts in Ukraine and the Balkans, investigators said.

Ukraine’s prosecutor general says the funds have since been seized and will be returned to the country’s defence budget.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/corrupt-ukrainian-officials-stole-31-5m-meant-to-buy-arms-for-war-with-russia/ar-BB1hnbmN?ocid=msedgntp&pc=U531&cvid=32b9a0b0bdbc4f9fb234ff30378ab3f3&ei=35

Jimbuna

01-28-24, 07:51 AM

How Vladimir Putin has disposed of his enemies - including poisonings and plane crashes

Vladimir Putin has been Russia's longest serving president since Joseph Stalin - and the Kremlin has disposed of its political critics, treacherous spies and investigative journalists in a number of ways.

The attacks range from poisoning by drinking polonium-laced tea or touching a deadly nerve agent, to getting shot at close range, while others have plunged to their deaths from an open window. In August 2023, global news outlets went wild when the former head of the Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, perished in plane accident after he attempted to stage a brief coup against the Kremlin. The aircraft plummeted into a field from tens of thousands of feet after breaking apart.

Assassination attempts against foes of President Putin have been common during his nearly quarter century in power. Those close to the victims and the few survivors have blamed Russian authorities, but the Kremlin has routinely denied involvement in these deaths - adding to the mystery and deadly power of the Kremlin's reach.
There also have been reports of prominent Russian executives dying under mysterious circumstances, including falling from windows, although whether they were deliberate killings or suicides is sometimes difficult to determine. Here we look at prominent cases of the fallen, or their attempted killings.

Opposition leader Alexei Navalny has been behind bars in Russia since January 2021, when he returned to Moscow after recuperating in Germany from nerve agent poisoning that he blamed on the Kremlin. Before his arrest, Navalny campaigned against official corruption and organized major anti-Kremlin protests. He has since received three prison terms and spent months in isolation in Penal Colony No. 6 for alleged minor infractions. He has rejected all charges against him as politically motivated.

Vladimir Kara-Murza is a prominent opposition activist who twice survived poisonings in 2015 and 2017 that he blamed on the Kremlin. Last year he was jailed for a quarter of a century for criticising tyrant Putin's war in Ukraine. The charges against Kara-Murza stem from his March 15 speech to the Arizona House of Representatives in which he denounced Russia's military action in Ukraine. Investigators added the treason charges while he was in custody.

Boris Nemtsov, the leader of the Russian opposition was shot dead in front of the Kremlin seven years ago. Nemtsov, then one of Russia's most outspoken critics of Putin, had at the time of his death been organising opposition rallies against Russia's military involvement in Ukraine. He became deputy PM and was once touted as a possible presidential candidate - but it was Putin who took over from former president Boris Yeltsin in 2000.

Alexander Litvinenko was a Russian spy who died in 2006 after he was poisoned with radioactive polonium-210 while drinking tea at London's Millennium Hotel. He had been investigating the shooting death of Russian journalist Anna Politkovskaya as well as the Russian intelligence service’s alleged links to organized crime. He had fled to Britain in 2000 after being arrested in his home country for exceeding the authority of his position.

Another former Russian intelligence officer, Sergei Skripal, was poisoned in Britain in 2018. He and his adult daughter Yulia fell ill in the city of Salisbury and spent weeks in critical condition. They survived, but the attack later claimed the life of a British woman and left a man and a police officer seriously ill. Authorities said they both were poisoned with the military grade nerve agent Novichok. Britain blamed Russian intelligence, but Moscow denied any role.

Journalists that have been critical of authorities in Russia have either been killed or suffered mysterious deaths, which their colleagues in some cases blamed on someone in the political hierarchy. In other cases, the reported reluctance by authorities to investigate raised suspicions.

Novaya Gazeta journalist Anna Politkovskaya was shot and killed in the elevator of her Moscow apartment building on October 7, 2006 - Putin’s birthday - after she won international acclaim for uncovering human rights abuses in Chechnya. The gunman, from Chechnya, was convicted of the killing and sentenced to 20 years in prison. Four other Chechens were given shorter prison terms for their involvement in the murder.

Meanwhile Yuri Shchekochikhin, another Novaya Gazeta reporter, died of a sudden and violent illness in 2003. He was investigating corrupt business deals and the possible role of Russian security services in the 1999 apartment house bombings, which at the time were blamed on Chechen insurgents. His colleagues claimed he was poisoned and accused the authorities of deliberately hindering the investigation.

Yevgeny Prigozhin and top lieutenants of his Wagner private military company died in a plane crash in August of last year - two months to the day after he launched an armed rebellion that Putin branded “a stab in the back” and “treason.”

In a televised address from his offices, Putin said his ex-pal was a "man of difficult fate" and that he "made serious mistakes in life". He went on to detail how Prigozhin worked in Russia and Africa, claiming that he was "engaged in oil, gas, precious metals and stones there", but without mentioning how his shadow army was accused of atrocities on the continent. He added that Prigozhin "also sought to achieve the necessary results - both for himself and at time when I asked him to, for the common cause, such as in these recent months".

But a preliminary intelligence assessment found that the crash that killed all 10 people aboard was intentionally caused by an explosion, according to U.S. and Western officials. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to comment. One said the explosion fell in line with Putin’s “long history of trying to silence his critics.”

Dmitry Peskov, denied allegations the Kremlin was behind the crash, telling reporters: “Of course, in the West those speculations are put out under a certain angle, and all of it is a complete lie." Former Kremlin speechwriter turned political analyst, Abbas Gallyamov, said: “Putin has demonstrated that if you fail to obey him without question, he will dispose of you without mercy, like an enemy, even if you are formally a patriot.”
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/how-vladimir-putin-has-disposed-of-his-enemies-including-poisonings-and-plane-crashes/ar-BB1hnkPX?ocid=msedgntp&pc=U531&cvid=c28e5e5c2d3b49a8ac4017831e585cf8&ei=22

Skybird

01-28-24, 10:53 AM

‘The enemy is amassing’: Ukrainian army officials give unvarnished account of the battlefield.

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/01/27/europe/ukraine-battlefield-reality-intl-hnk/index.html

mapuc

01-28-24, 06:22 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OpTiVlTNz9g&ab_channel=UkraineMatters

Markus

Jimbuna

01-29-24, 09:09 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zrj8kNLU0K0

Jimbuna

01-29-24, 09:18 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4akUMqEY008

Skybird

01-29-24, 10:39 AM

Tja. Things are going as I feared two years ago: it's starting to smell like a rotten endgame.

https://www-focus-de.translate.goog/politik/ausland/ukraine-krise/gastbeitrag-von-gabor-steingart-selenskyj-muss-mit-putin-verhandeln-bevor-es-zu-spaet-ist_id_259617766.html?_x_tr_sl=de&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp

You can sugarcoat it however you want, it is and remains a devastating defeat with staggering territorial losses, and the loss of the core of Ukrainian heavy industry and a very significant part of Ukraine's agricultural land. Crimea will allow the Russians to continue to threaten the airspace over the Black Sea and almost all of Ukraine. And contrary to what the author seems to believe, the result at the end of the negotiations is not peace, but only a ceasefire. Russia will move on sooner or later.

The West has messed it up.

mapuc

01-29-24, 10:50 AM

It makes me truly, truly sad that Russia seems to get away with their aggressive action against Ukraine.

Are we letting Ukraine on their own ? Where is these strong words like-We are with you all the way and Russia is not allowed to win.

Markus

Skybird

01-29-24, 10:51 AM

Sober as always: Col. Reisner.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ufWXXme2x-E

mapuc

01-29-24, 11:14 AM

The Nato alliance should rearm, and Europe should not underestimate the Russian forces and the possibility of an all-out war against Russia.

https://ekstrabladet-dk.translate.goog/nyheder/krigogkatastrofer/nato-general-europa-boer-forberede-sig-paa-russisk-angreb/10110103?_x_tr_sl=da&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=da&_x_tr_pto=wapp

Markus

Jimbuna

01-29-24, 12:33 PM

Russians who want rid of Putin pin election hopes on anti-war candidate Boris Nadezhdin

Thousands of Russians queued for hours in the freezing cold across the country over the past few days to show their support for an anti-war candidate before this year’s stage-managed presidential ballot in which Vladimir Putin is the only permitted winner.

Boris Nadezhdin, a centre-right candidate who has called himself a “principled opponent” of the war, has said in his manifesto that Putin made a “fatal mistake by starting the special military operation”, the Kremlin’s preferred term for its invasion. “Putin sees the world from the past and is dragging Russia into the past.”

As the end-of-the-month deadline approached for Nadezhdin to collect the necessary 100,000 signatures to appear on the ballot for the elections in March, social media posts showed Russians joining long lines to give their signatures in cities across the country.
Nadezhdin is a decades-long veteran of Russian politics, with a history of ties to Kremlin insiders, including Putin’s domestic politics curator, Sergei Kiriyenko, and some of its most pointed critics, such as the slain opposition leader Boris Nemtsov.

Nadezhdin is a rare critical voice allowed to appear on the shouty chatshows that dominate state TV, playing the role of token opposition that some have said maintains the fiction of competition in Russia. Now, those critics see him as a spoiler in an election otherwise devoid of drama.

But for anti-war Russians there is no one else. And his last-second dash to collect 100,000 signatures and get on the ballot for March’s election has invigorated a moribund opposition as Putin marches toward a fifth term in the Kremlin.

“I don’t have any illusions about Nadezdhin or whether he has a chance to win,” said Natalya, who described queueing for an hour in the cold on Sunday alongside young people and families with children. “But even if we get him on the ballot, it will feel like a little victory.”

Little victories are all that the country’s opposition appears capable of at the moment. Public protest against the war has virtually evaporated as police are quick to stop demonstrations, and hundreds of outspoken critics of the war have been jailed while thousands more have fled the country. For most Russians, the war has faded into the background of daily life.

“It was cool to stand in a line like that, people were making jokes and the mood was generally good,” she said. “I used to go to protests before February 2022, but now that is impossible of course. You quickly forget that at one point there were thousands of people on the street.”

Nadezhdin’s campaign said on Monday that they had collected more than 200,000 signatures – twice as many as he needs to officially join the race. But the authorities could still refuse to put him on the ballot by deeming tens of thousands of signatures as invalid, a tactic previously used with other opposition candidates.

Nadezhdin’s is not the first anti-war candidacy to appear in this Russian election cycle. Yekaterina Duntsova, a Russian TV journalist, had submitted documents to run as an independent candidate for president when she was disqualified by the Russian central elections commission last month. She has since announced her support for Nadezhdin’s campaign.

“As the opposition, we need to look for common ground and not for conflicts,” she said of her decision to support Nadezhdin. “Our common ground is the desire for peace. And that’s my priority. And then time will tell.”

She defended participation in Russia’s carefully controlled elections, calling it a “training for Russia’s civil society”. “The elections will count no matter who comes or doesn’t come,” she said. “The state employees, the military, the prisons, the retirement homes will all vote at nearly 100% turnout … if we don’t go to the elections, we’ll be abandoning it.”

Yet Russian political realities are changing and Nadezhdin’s criticism of the invasion, including meetings with women calling for Putin to return their husbands from the front and end the war, have angered Russia’s pro-war political elite.

Related: The mothers and wives of Russian soldiers daring to defy Putin – podcast

Since launching his bid, Nadezhdin has also courted the support of Russia’s “non-systemic opposition”, in particular allies of the jailed opposition leader Alexei Navalny, a third rail of Russian politics who was banished last month to an Arctic prison because of his strong criticism of Putin.

Duntsova said Nadezhdin had allowed himself to be “more outspoken” than her campaign because “he has spent more time in federal politics and has more relations with the various levels of government … he can feel more liberated in that sense.”

From prison, Navalny said he would put his signature down for Nadezhdin’s presidential run, and his wife, Yulia, was photographed on Wednesday signing in support of Nadezhdin’s candidacy for president.

“From the start of the election, our main focus was to campaign against Putin,” said Ruslan Shaveddinov, a close ally of Navalny’s. “Nadezhdin criticises the war and also, somewhat carefully, criticises the government … He is not an ideal candidate, but many see him as a vehicle to voice their opposition against the government.”

He added: “Standing in line and supporting Nadezhdin is a safe way to protest and we support that.”

The Kremlin has so far disregarded Nadezhdin’s candidacy, saying he does not pose an electoral threat. “We do not see him as a rival,” said Dmitry Peskov, Putin’s press secretary, who declined to comment when asked whether Nadezhdin’s campaign was “coordinated” with the Kremlin.

In a widely expected move, Russia’s central election commission on Monday recognised Putin as a candidate for the presidential elections in March.

Tatiana Stanovaya, a political analyst and founder of the political analysis firm R.Politik, said Nadezhdin was probably permitted to try (and fail) to collect signatures for the elections to “show the hopelessness of the anti-war agenda. And they made a mistake … they didn’t understand he would start to play not by the rules.”

She said “Nadezhdin is their own guy, they know him from back to front”, noting that he likely gave advance notice to his political contacts, including Kiriyenko, the Kremlin’s domestic politics tsar, of his plans to run for president. “He was expected to play by the rules.”

But his openness to working with Navalny supporters and other actions had “poured gas on the fire of the non-systemic opposition”, Stanovaya said, referring to a set of political campaigners who have virtually been outlawed since the war began.

She said Nadezhdin’s bid would probably be rejected when he submits his signatures to the elections commission in the coming days. Blocking Nadezhdin’s run “is not a problem for the Kremlin”, she said.

Putin, meanwhile, would demand to see a crushing victory in the elections worthy of a ruler fighting an offensive war.

“He needs to show overwhelming support,” Stanovaya said of Putin. “He wants the elections to prove that the country stands behind him.”
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/russians-who-want-rid-of-putin-pin-election-hopes-on-anti-war-candidate-boris-nadezhdin/ar-BB1hqJd0?ocid=msedgntp&pc=U531&cvid=5fc74b64558d4ef5af930a3ef37bd11f&ei=61

Dargo

01-29-24, 01:00 PM

Europe clearly overtakes US, with total commitments now twice as large
Europe has clearly overtaken the United States in promised aid to Ukraine, with total European commitments now being twice as large. A main reason is the EU’s new €50 billion “Ukraine Facility,” but also other European countries have upped their support with new multi-year packages. For the first time since the start of the war, the US is now clearly lagging behind. This is one of the results of the latest update of the Ukraine Support Tracker.

Over the summer, the European Union has sent a clear signal by announcing a new €50 billion multi-year support package to be delivered between 2023 and 2027, which doubles total EU commitments. The EU’s “Ukraine Facility” is part of the EU’s budget plans until 2027, showing a lasting commitment to support Ukraine.

In addition to the new EU-level pledges, there have been important new multi-year commitments from individual European countries, in particular a 4-year military support package of Germany worth €10.5 billion (2024–2027) and Norway’s “Nansen Support Program” worth €6.6 billion over 5 years. Additional multi-year packages were committed by Denmark, UK, Switzerland, Sweden, Portugal, and Lithuania.

Beyond these multi-year plans the Ukraine Support Tracker lists new, short-term commitment increases from Europe, in particular by Germany worth €619 million and by the United Kingdom worth €286 million.

“It is remarkable how quickly Europe has moved towards a new and substantive multi-year support program for Ukraine. For the first time, the US is now lagging behind by a large margin, also because there have been no meaningful new US pledges over the past months. The doubling of EU aid is a notable shift compared to the first year of the war, when the US clearly lead the way,” says Christoph Trebesch, head of the team producing the Ukraine Support Tracker and director of a research center at Kiel Institute.

Total EU commitments are now almost double those of the US. When adding other Western European countries that are not part of the EU (UK, Norway, Switzerland), the gap widens further. Specifically, the Tracker lists a total of €156 billion commitments by all main European donors (EU and non-EU), compared to less than €70 billion by the US.

https://i.postimg.cc/RVH3K7TN/ukraid.webp
https://www.ifw-kiel.de/publications/news/ukraine-support-tracker-europe-clearly-overtakes-us-with-total-commitments-now-twice-as-large/

Skybird

01-29-24, 01:54 PM

Note that a significant share of european and especially german aid is just announcement and voiced intention.
And then recall what has become of Bubble-Olafs glorious Zeitenwende and that 100 Billion special budget for the Bundeswehr. Not exactly encouraging.

Jimbuna

01-29-24, 01:58 PM

One big difference being the fact the US has already stumped up and delivered more than anyone else.

mapuc

01-29-24, 02:29 PM

Reece

01-29-24, 08:29 PM

All these promised donations!! :doh: When will Ukraine actually get the aid they need? :hmmm: As far as I'm concerned talk is cheap! :oops: Ukraine needs the goods NOW!:timeout:

Skybird

01-30-24, 06:00 AM

[Focus]The city of Avdiivka in the Donbass remains the focal point of the fighting in the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine. As has now become known, the Russians managed to break through the Ukrainian defense line here with a tactical move. The Russians had been digging their way through a disused sewage pipe for weeks, as reported by "Bild". The newspaper quotes the Russian war blogger "Razwjedka", who called the operation a "resounding victory and a completely new level of operational art" on January 20.

Initially, little credence was given to the information, but Russian soldiers then actually attacked Ukrainian positions from behind and conquered them "one by one", as "Bild" writes.

More than a week later, Ukrainian soldiers also confirmed the Russian surprise attack. "In fact, this is a suburb of the city that the Russians now want to conquer. To do so, they had to swim more than a kilometer in a slurry pipe and without suffocating," "Bild" quotes the Ukrainian military unit Khorne Group.

Jimbuna

01-30-24, 09:23 AM

All these promised donations!! :doh: When will Ukraine actually get the aid they need? :hmmm: As far as I'm concerned talk is cheap! :oops: Ukraine needs the goods NOW!:timeout:

PRECISELY! :yep:

Jimbuna

01-30-24, 09:30 AM

Nothing but rubble in shattered ghost town Avdiivka

After months of fierce fighting, small groups of Russian troops have reached the heavily damaged eastern Ukrainian town of Avdiivka and are trying to gain a foothold there.

The small number of civilians left have been fleeing the town in greater numbers under relentless fire, and as Ukrainian forces try to repel the attacks.

Avdiivka is a gateway to the Russian-controlled city of Donetsk. It has been effectively on the front line since 2014 when the conflict in eastern Ukraine started.

All attempts by Russian troops to advance there have failed. Until now.

Residents who have fled and volunteers who try to evacuate others from Avdiivka told the BBC that Russian troops had recently seized several streets in the southern part of the town.

One volunteer, who wished to remain anonymous, claimed they were first seen in the outskirts on 19 January.

"Some people managed to get out from those areas but it was two days ago," he said. "Now, no-one is coming out. We are only getting information that there are bodies on the streets but it's too dangerous to go there."

Avdiivka had a pre-war population of more than 30,000. Last summer it was closer to 1,650. Now, there are just over 1,000 remaining. Many have fled, but many have also been killed.

The head of the town's military administration, Vitaly Barabash, says it was small Russian sabotage groups who managed to get to the outskirts, and not large units.

"They didn't enter with serious forces. Yes, they had certain success, but the street that everyone is talking about - Soborna Street - is under our control. We have pushed them out," he told the BBC.

This is, however, the first time that Russians have managed to enter the town since the start of the full-scale invasion in February 2022.

Since last October, the Russians have unleashed a relentless campaign of artillery and air strikes. Authorities say that in January alone, they dropped more than 300 guided aviation bombs.

And as its buildings have been reduced to rubble, Avdiivka has become a graveyard as well as a ghost town.

The dead are left under the rubble as there are neither emergency services nor equipment to clear the wreckage.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68086568

Skybird

01-31-24, 06:55 AM

[Focus] According to consistent media reports, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi is said to have tried to dismiss Commander-in-Chief Valery Salushnyi. According to reports, only recent intervention by the USA and the UK prevented this. But the rumors continue to smolder. It is the culmination of a power struggle that has been simmering for some time. Relations between Zelenskyi and Salushnyi have been strained for weeks in view of the failed counter-offensive against the Russian attackers.

Australian military expert Mick Ryan sees the power struggle as a "tragedy for Ukraine". "If this speculation continues, Salushnyj's relationship with Selenskyj could soon be beyond repair," he analyzes in a thread on X, formerly Twitter.

What would be the consequences of a rift between the president and the popular general? Ryan lists seven of them:

Point 1: The leadership of the Ukrainian army. Ryan praises Salushnyj's "mix of professional competence, delegation, civil courage, intellectual modesty and curiosity", which "would be difficult to replace".
Point 2: Impact on the army chain of command. Ryan assumes that a successor would already have been found, should a dismissal really take place. However, a new appointment would also have "disruptive" consequences far down the Army chain of command.
Point 3: Advising the President. The Australian military expert calls advising the president a "key task" of a military commander. Given that Salushnyj had been in his position since before the start of the Russian war of aggression, Ryan assumes that it would take some time before a new commander could advise Selenskyj similarly well.
Point 4: Relations with allies. The same applies to relations with Ukraine's partners and allies. A new commander would first have to find his way in there, while Zelushnyi is already networked.
Point 5: The public image of an unstable government. Should Zelensky actually dismiss Salushnyi, the image of an unstable Ukrainian government would spread. Ryan fears that parts of the US Congress, for example, could then use this alleged instability to continue to argue against military aid for Ukraine.
Point 6: Russian propaganda. Ryan fears that the Russian propaganda machine could use a Salushnyj dismissal for its own purposes.
Point 7: Salushnyj's future role. "Salushnyi will not simply disappear if Zelenskyi dismisses him," suspects Ryan. "Finding the right job for Salushnyi will be difficult," says the military expert. But: "I believe that Salushnyj - even if he doesn't want to leave - is first and foremost a servant of his country. It is very likely that he does not want to make his country's situation worse." That is why he will probably not cause any problems even if he is dismissed.
------------------------

I myself would like to know whose idea it was to attack in many places simultaneously during the offensive instead of concentrating forces on one primary attack corridor: Zalushnji or Zelenskji.

Furthermore, Zelenskji has lost his spell as the primary organizer of support, and while that may not be his fault, it does mean that Zelenskji himself has become expendable. I certainly think that he lives with his head inside a bubble. Zalushnji by comparison is far more realistic in his assessment what Ukraine can militarily acchieve - and what not.

Dargo

01-31-24, 12:46 PM

Ukraine soon to be first country in the world to deploy brand new missile against Russians
Cheap, accurate, almost impossible to intercept and with a range of 150 kilometers. A year after its announcement, Ukraine may become the very first country in the world to deploy the brand-new GLSDB bomb to strike Russian troops far behind the front. Even the Americans have not yet stockpiled the long-range weapon. The Ground Launched Small Diameter Bomb was already announced by the Pentagon on Feb. 3 last year as Ukraine's newest weapon in its fight against the Russian aggressor. Yet the American Boeing and Swedish Saab, which are jointly developing the weapon, immediately made it clear that delivery was not for immediately, as only an aircraft version of the bombs existed. According to both companies, it would take at least nine months to produce and test a ground version as well. Those tests are now over: according to Reuters, the last one took place on Jan. 16 in Florida, during which six GLSDBs were successfully launched toward the Gulf of Mexico. News site Politico reported Tuesday night, based on anonymous stakeholders, that a first substantial quantity of bombs had left for Ukraine, and that the weapons could theoretically be deployed as early as Wednesday. Neither the U.S. nor the Ukrainian Defense Ministry would confirm that.

What is certain is that Ukraine will be the first country to deploy the GLSDB in a combat situation, making it a world first. According to Saab, the bomb is "extremely flexible, highly effective and accurate over long distances." The delivery of Himars missile systems with a range of 85 kilometers in 2022 forced the Russians to organize their logistics already further from the front. That range could now be nearly doubled with the GLSDB. Moreover, the weapon would be a welcome addition to the other long-range missiles Ukraine was already receiving from France and the United Kingdom. While those have a longer range of 250 kilometers, they are limited in stock and must be fired from an aircraft, which carries more risk. A British Storm Shadow also costs as much as 2 million pounds (more than 2.3 million euros) apiece, while a cost of barely $40,000 (37,000 euros) is quoted for one GLSDB. That low price is because the GLSDB is in fact little more than the merger of an existing bomb and missile that the United States has masses of in stock. More than half a million of the M26 launcher were made between 1980 and 2001, after which they were decommissioned. Attached to the missile is an aircraft bomb that has been in service with the U.S. military and others since 2005 and several tens of thousands of them have been made.

The innovation lies in the fact that the GLSDB can now also be fired from the ground, moreover from several launch systems Ukraine already has, such as the Himars. After launch, the missile propels the bomb into the air and it is eventually detached, after which the bomb "glides" toward its target with wings and GPS guidance. Because there is no longer a detectable thruster behind it, Boeing says the bomb is highly resistant to enemy anti-aircraft fire. It can also be launched from all directions thanks to precision guidance and even fly past its target and then turn around and hit the target from behind. That, too, makes interception more difficult. Boeing also guarantees an impact safety of 1 meter, with detonation immediately on impact or only after impact in a bunker, for example. For more than a year, Ukraine has been looking for additional ways to hit Russian troops far behind the front. To do so, it is mainly looking at the American ATACMS missile, with a range of 300 kilometers, and the German Taurus, which can hit targets as far as 500 kilometers away. Yet both U.S. President Joe Biden and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz remain reluctant to supply those weapons for fear of escalation. The GLSDB is then seen as a "compromise. A source at Reuters speaks of "a significant additional asset for Ukraine and an additional arrow in their quiver." "It is urgent time to find creative ways to give Ukraine the ability and capacity to hit far, AND often, deep behind Russian lines," also says Tom Karako, weapons expert at the U.S. Center for Strategic and International Studies. In this way, the GLSDB fits well into Ukraine's 2024 strategy: to maintain the current front line as much as possible while strafing the Russians far behind it to disrupt Russian operations. In the meantime, the Ukrainian army can re-strengthen.

Just how necessary, disrupting Russian operations is shows the spring offensive by Putin's forces that is now in full swing, according to the Institute for the Study of War. In it, Russia is attacking all along the border between the Kharkiv and Luhansk regions, in northeastern Ukraine. Progress is being made in several places, and the battle for the now almost completely surrounded town of Avdiivka also continues relentlessly after three months. Kyrylo Budanov, chief of Ukrainian military intelligence, however, makes a strong case that Russian assault forces will be "completely exhausted" by the beginning of spring. https://www.demorgen.be/oorlog-in-oekraine/een-jaar-na-de-aankondiging-oekraine-zet-straks-als-eerste-land-ter-wereld-gloednieuwe-raket-in-tegen-russen~b7aeb04d6/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jxmC-hqnI_E

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rvCL15fsphE

Jimbuna

01-31-24, 02:07 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VHLd6BRt2go

Skybird

01-31-24, 04:03 PM

A deal between Democrats and Republicans to approve further aid for Ukraine was obviously torpedoed at the last minute by Trump and his loyal puppy, the Speaker, as the deal also provided for measures that could relieve the migration problem on the southern border - a concession to the Republicans. However, this would mean that Trump would lose one of his most important issues in the election campaign, or at least that it would lose its edge, and that is obviously inconvenient for him. It has now been said quite blatantly that this deal would be prevented at all costs, and Trump has the power to do this within the Republicans. Which means that he will unscrupulously walk over the corpses of the Ukrainians.

What a murderous pig.

The fact that, in view of this situation, a vain Zelenskyi has nothing better to do than to try to get rid of a supposed or actual political rival, Genverla Zalushnji, who enjoys much greater sympathy and trust among the people and has greater military competence than Zelenskyi, comes at an absolutely inopportune time. Thanks to Zalushnji's refusal to resign and the refusal of other generals to take his place should he be fired, Zelenskji has damaged himself and also fed the mistrust that has always been shown towards him in Washington, Berlin and Paris. Pretty idiotic action, Mr. President.

The EU's anti-Semitic douchebag-in-chief, Borrell, has since had to admit that the target of delivering 1 million artillery shells by March will be missed by ~50%. They are now working on delivering another million over the next 9 or 12 months. He must not have been listening when Rheinmetall said a 2 or 3 weeks ago that it had finally received an order worth 1.5 billion euros for artillery shells from the Bundeswehr - and would be able to start delivery in about two years.

"Und lebte die Hoffnung auch nur einen Tag, so hat sie doch gelebt." :yeah:

This war will not necessarily be lost militarily, but through political incompetence and irresponsibility on all sides.

mapuc

01-31-24, 04:35 PM

This war will not necessarily be lost militarily, but through political incompetence and irresponsibility on all sides.

Yep the Ukrainian will lose the war in the west and not on the battlefield.

Markus

Skybird

02-01-24, 08:45 AM

Zelensky set to announce dismissal of Ukraine’s top commander within days as rift grows over war, source say.

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/01/31/europe/zaluzhny-oust-ukraine-army-zelensky-intl/index.html

Can you hear the champagne corks popping in the Kremlin...?

-------------------------------

World Court dismisses much of Ukraine’s case against Russia

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/01/31/europe/ukraine-russia-icj-mh17-intl/index.html

mapuc

02-01-24, 10:32 AM

^
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=90P60hHjRZM&ab_channel=UkraineMatters

Markus

Skybird

02-01-24, 11:34 AM

We will learn soon enough. Fact is that Zalushnyi has an approval rating of clearly over 90% both in the armed forces and in the population, while Zelenskji's is declining since longer time and is about to drop further below 60%. Means: Zalushnji is a threat to Zelenskji's political reputation. Even more so since Zalushnji's quite sober assessment that he wrote for the Economist some weeks ago, which was sharply critizised and rebuked by Zelenskji's spokesmen since it rejected the all-out optimism Zelenskji is always announcing.

Zelenskji in general does not want elections this Spring, and tries to prevent them. I see pros and cons there and do not comment either scenario. Its an internal matter of the ukrainian people - not Zelenskji alone - whether they want elections under these circumstances or not.

As I see it, Zelenskji's position is growing weaker these weeks.

mapuc

02-01-24, 12:46 PM

Jimbuna

02-01-24, 01:21 PM

So when exactly?

Ukraine support package worth €50bn agreed by EU leaders

All 27 EU leaders have agreed a €50bn aid package for Ukraine after Hungary had previously blocked the deal.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky welcomed the new funding, saying it would strengthen the country's economic and financial stability.

Ukraine's economic ministry said it expects the first tranche of funds in March.

There had been fears Hungary's PM would again block the package as he did at a European summit in December.

Viktor Orban, Russian President Vladimir Putin's closest ally in the EU, had said he wanted to force a rethink of the bloc's policy towards Ukraine and questioned the idea of committing funds for Kyiv for the next four years.

The package will help to pay pensions, salaries and other costs over the next four years. It comes as US military aid for Ukraine - the largest provider of military support for Kyiv - is being held up by Congress.

Many European countries also provide military aid to Ukraine.

News of the agreement was announced less than two hours after the summit started, surprising many observers who had expected talks to go on much longer due to the depth of disagreement between Mr Orban and the other EU leaders.

Agreeing a new package of aid for Ukraine requires the unanimous support of all 27 EU member states, meaning until now Hungary had been able to veto a deal.

Diplomatic sources told Reuters that the new deal includes a yearly discussion of the package and the option to review it in two years, "if needed".

Mr Orban had been pushing for a yearly vote on the package, but this could have left the deal exposed to an annual veto threat from Hungary.

"A good day for Europe," Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, said on X.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said he was "grateful" to EU leaders, highlighting that the decision was taken by all 27 heads of state in a united display of support for Ukraine, which was invaded by Russia nearly two years ago. Mr Zelensky also said the package would "strengthen the long-term economic and financial stability" of Ukraine.

Ukraine's Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba had underlined that it was about Europe investing in its own security. He stressed that Ukraine was resisting Russia for everyone - blocking Mr Putin's attempt to challenge the world order by force.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, who had been highly critical of what he called Mr Orban's "strange and egotistic game," posted on X: "Viktor Orban could be 'persuaded'... Let's move on."

The EU has been withholding €20bn of funds for Hungary because of concerns about human rights and corruption in the country.

Today's announcement of a new aid package comes after European leaders agreed to open EU membership talks with Ukraine in December - a decision hailed at the time as "a victory" for his country.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-68165971

Jimbuna

02-02-24, 09:54 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=36Yb4fOWXSY

mapuc

02-02-24, 10:00 AM

Jimbuna

02-02-24, 10:08 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=drDiD_qtUHY

Dargo

02-02-24, 11:51 AM

The videos I watch on YT are more or less very positive towards the Ukrainians

Could be that Ukraine has more luck on the battlefield than we know.

Could also be that Ukraine do not have so much luck as we are told.

MarkusThe military and secret services are better led better trained and have more will to succeed, their pool of engineers is greater to create better weapons. You see it how they adapt to the technology from the West they learn quick even surprise the west we never knew that the patriot batteries could destroy Russian supersonic missiles. Ukraine has a purpose to win this Russians do it for the money or are forced than you get a total other will to succeed Russian's will is to survive their contract not interested in a success yeah their own.

This is the Russian air force. Russian pilots have accidentally dropped yet another bomb. Five such cases are known on Russian or Russian-occupied territories, and this has become a pattern. There are several possible reasons for this:
sabotage by technicians at airfields;
poor quality of equipment;
unwillingness of pilots either to shoot at Ukraine or, more realistically, to fly closer to the launch line, as Ukraine's long-range artillery can destroy the aircraft.
Same goes for the Russian navy. The old soviet doctrine does not work (This doctrine only works when you send tanks behind them to push the enemy further back) you can win terrain by artillery or meat waves but holding it is impossible because Ukrainians retreat and the next day retake the gained terrain because if you bombard the terrain like Russia do you destroy every defence there is either rubble or destroyed tree lines left where you as Russians can not hide any more.

https://i.postimg.cc/L4wmtLqg/02-02-2024.jpg

Putin celebrating the capture of rubble on the outskirts of Avdvika I remember that the strategic objectives of the war he launched were originally somewhat more ambitious. Russians have been hammering at Avdiivka for so long losing hundreds of armoured vehicles in the process for the ruins of one town Their offensive capacity is disordered, yet they keep throwing resources at this objective (The second time in this war!) this is not a doctrine this is a stupidity and will never result in a Russian victory. This not the first time Russia invaded Ukraine either it formally declared its independence from Russia on 22 January 1918 on 10 November 1920, Ukraine lost its territory to the Bolsheviks. 12 years later, they were starved by the same Russia. This will not repeat itself again, the Ukraine people will to defend their own country is large (The Revolution of Dignity is an example for this they are prepared to die for this) Ukraine people will never again live under the rule of butchers any more. In Russia, you get appointed to important jobs if you are loyal to Putin so if you do not backstab Putin you're OK why would you do more than that, and you're getting rich of it your job is to be loyal to Putin not win wars that is the will of Russia

Dargo

02-02-24, 01:53 PM

You could be 100 % correct in your statement- It was just your last post that made me remember the video I posted in my last post.

Maybe it is a spielen für die camera
Maybe it is a real political fight.

As you said we will know within the next couple of weeks from now.

MarkusVolodymyr Zelenskyy held a meeting of the General's Staff Headquarters. Topics covered:
Ukrainian drone production — plan for 2024;
Shells — production and import;
Situation at the front - all key directions, Avdiivka - especially difficult;
Fortification — expansion of fortification structures;
Energy — recovery after russian strikes, physical protection of the energy industry.
Reports were made by Zaluzhnyi, Umierov, Fedorov, Shmyhal, Syrsky and others. https://twitter.com/Flash_news_ua/status/1753481507694399709

mapuc

02-02-24, 01:58 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yVfWeS8bfRs&ab_channel=CombatVeteranReacts

Markus

Dargo

02-02-24, 02:17 PM

Watch Poland very closely, particularly if the US doesn’t approve aid and then elects Trump. Poland will have to decide then whether it’s up to it to lead a coalition of European states who would want to defeat Russia in Ukraine. And they have the military that could do it

Poland will “demand the broadest possible sanctions” against Russia – including an embargo on nuclear fuel and the transfer of frozen Russian assets to Ukraine – says @donaldtusk as the EU begins discussions over a new package of measures https://twitter.com/notesfrompoland/status/1753365011659976711

People don’t always realize that the US, while helping Ukraine, has also restrained NATO states in Central/Eastern Europe who are committed to Russian defeat. If the US abandons Ukraine and goes Trump, those states will now decide what’s in their interest vis a vis Russia. https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1753478207297167832

mapuc

02-02-24, 02:28 PM

Knowing EU and how slow they are-It could take years before they reach any agreement and years before they get out of the start position.

Markus

Dargo

02-02-24, 02:39 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gji0IzERcVo

Dargo

02-02-24, 02:46 PM

Knowing EU and how slow they are-It could take years before they reach any agreement and years before they get out of the start position.

MarkusIf Poland can create a great faction and with the EU network of Tusk it can go quick.

mapuc

02-02-24, 03:24 PM

If Poland can create a great faction and with the EU network of Tusk it can go quick.

Ok a faction of EU-members could be a possibility
I was thinking the entire EU.

The next question would be-Who would join Tusk in his crusade against Russia in Ukraine ?

Germany ?
the Netherlands ?
Denmark ?
Sweden ?

Markus

Dargo

02-02-24, 03:35 PM

Ok a faction of EU-members could be a possibility
I was thinking the entire EU.

The next question would be-Who would join Tusk in his crusade against Russia in Ukraine ?

Germany ?
the Netherlands ?
Denmark ?
Sweden ?

MarkusGermany Not sure, maybe only with production for this.
The Netherlands get a new government where one of the biggest in the coalition is anti EU anti NATO and pro Kremlin, but the majority is for Ukraine can tell when there is a government and this will take a long time months maybe a year. So the pro Ukraine policy is still in place. Mood is now cabinet formation with right-wing parties turns out not to be an apples-to-egg affair after all. :D
Denmark yes
Sweden yes
Will add Finland and a lot of soviet satellites (Eastern Europe)
France yes but and with a somewhat
UK yes
Baltic States yes

Change in policy politics, production or military always take his time it tokes the allies two years to build up and do not believe that Russia has it ramped up all their figures is considered to take with a grain of salt. The EU can not produce the million shells they promised (so the EU gone buy them on the market we as EU are X times richer than Russia) but what they produce is better, more precise than Russian million production. Ukraine has proofed that with coordinated military operation, they do not need that many shells and can destroy more Russian targets than Russia can, and it is easily shooting Russians take the same route where they were destroyed over and over again.

Skybird

02-02-24, 04:19 PM

Germany Not sure, maybe only with production for this.
No chance, keine, none, rien, nada, that Germany sends troops that start firing on Russian troops. Rule that scenario out. Its the German WW2 guilt thing, and it is cult and religion over here.

Dargo

02-02-24, 04:26 PM

No chance, keine, none, rien, nada, that Germany sends troops that start firing on Russian troops. Rule that scenario out. Its the German WW2 guilt thing, and it is cult and religion over here.It is older than WW2 Germany wanted to bring Russia into Europe for a long time (and for their own gain off coarse) result always was that Poland and Ukraine suffered.

Dargo

02-02-24, 06:26 PM

Karma iza biaach
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b4dduEpy4SM

Before the war, majority of the state budget was stolen now those kleptocrats steel more they know their future is uncertain so every war budget stolen is their insurance to survive these are not the few the whole chain is robbing Russia.

Dargo

02-02-24, 08:31 PM

From Wear to Warfare: Explaining and understanding the Lifespan of Artillery Barrels
Recent criticism of Western-supplied equipment to Ukraine and the industries that produce it has characterised this equipment as “boutique”; i.e. a luxurious, over-engineered item with a lengthy manufacturing time. This narrative is also commonly found to promote the notion that inflated budgets and poor performances are inherent within manufacturing industries. Moreover, some critics have blamed Ukraine’s allies’ inadequacies in producing more ammunition and vehicles on these same manufacturing complexities. Along with addressing this criticism, we will examine why many pieces of artillery have been removed from the battlefield for repair.

Barrels are an essential component in weapon systems, guiding the ammunition through a long narrow cylindrical tube. Barrels are divided into three sections from the breech face: the combustion chamber, bore, and the muzzle. The graphic below illustrates a typical gun barrel design, depicting components such as the breech, bore, and muzzle [1]. The figure also shows a cross-sectional view of a gun barrel that depicts the grooves on the inner surface of the bore. https://tochnyi.info/2024/01/from-wear-to-warfare-explaining-and-understadning-the-lifespan-of-artillery-barrels/

Jimbuna

02-03-24, 07:38 AM

UN top court can rule on Ukraine case against Russia

The UN's top court has said it has jurisdiction to hear a case brought against Russia by Ukraine.

Kyiv brought the case at The Hague-based International Court of Justice (ICJ), days after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

Kyiv accuses Moscow of falsely using genocide law to justify its brutal invasion which continues.

Russia says it intervened in Ukraine to prevent a genocidal attack on ethnic Russians in the eastern Donbas region.

Ukrainian representative Anton Korynevych welcomed the decision.

"It is important that the court will decide on the issue that Ukraine is not responsible for some mythical genocide which the Russian Federation falsely alleged that Ukraine... has been committing since 2014 in Donbas," he said.

While the case centres on the 1948 Genocide Convention, Kyiv does not accuse Moscow of committing genocide in Ukraine.

Instead, it says Russia violated the genocide treaty by resorting to it to justifying the invasion.

Ukraine maintains there was no risk of genocide in the east of the country, where it had been fighting Russian-backed forces since 2014.

It adds that the genocide treaty does not, in any case, permit an invasion to stop an alleged genocide.

Moscow argues Ukraine is using the case as a roundabout way to get a ruling on the overall legality of Russia's military action and has asked for it to be thrown out.

A record 32 states have filed submissions on the issue.

More than two dozen European states, as well as Australia and Canada, have backed Kyiv by giving formal statements to the ICJ.

On Friday, judges said the ICJ had jurisdiction to rule on Ukraine's request for the court to declare that Kyiv has not committed genocide.

However, judges will not rule on whether Russia's invasion or recognition of the independence of areas in eastern Ukraine amount to a violation of the Genocide Convention as those claims fall under different international laws.

The ruling is an important procedural step, which means the case continues.

The 1948 UN Genocide Convention defined genocide as crimes committed "with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group, as such".

ICJ rulings are legally binding but cannot be enforced by the court itself.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68182620

Jimbuna

02-04-24, 02:35 PM

No more easy deals for Russian convicts freed to fight

Russia has been releasing prisoners to fight in Ukraine for more than a year, originally offering them a pardon and freedom after six months, even if they have been convicted of a violent crime.

But the BBC has discovered this deal is a thing of the past. Now, they no longer get a pardon, face tougher conditions and instead of going home early, they must fight until the end of the war.

"If you sign up now, be ready to die," writes a man called Sergei in a chatroom for former Russian prisoners fighting in Ukraine.

He says that since October he's been part of a new type of army unit with the name "Storm V" which convicts are now being assigned to.

"Before you could wing it for six months. But now, you have to make it until the end of the war," he writes.

When the mass recruitment of Russian prisoners started in the summer of 2022, it was led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, once the head of the Wagner private military group. Prisoners were offered a clean record, full pardon and allowed to go home after six months on the battlefield.

Before he died in a plane crash in August, Prigozhin said that almost 50,000 Russian prisoners had been dispatched to the front line under this deal - similar figures have been cited by human rights activists. Thousands of those prisoners died, but others, including dozens convicted of violent crimes returned home, with some going on to re-offend and even commit murder.

The Russian military took over the scheme in February 2023, initially offering the same incentives as Prigozhin.

But the arrangement meant prisoners released to fight could go home after six months and were in a more privileged position than regular soldiers. That upset men who had been mobilised and their families.

Now, new conditions for prisoners redress that balance and are far stricter.

From reviewing messages in chatrooms and speaking to fighters and relatives, the BBC can confirm that Storm V troops are currently serving along the front line, from Zaporizhzhia in the south of Ukraine to Bakhmut in the east.

One woman from the Transbaikal region in Russia's Far East, who wished to remain anonymous, told the BBC her husband was recruited into one of the Storm V squads at the beginning of autumn 2023. She would not reveal what crime he had committed, but said it was "a serious charge".

She said they made the decision together that he would fight in Ukraine, believing it would result in a quicker release.

"This February would have been 15 years since he was sentenced. He had another four to go," she said. "Conditions in the prison were OK. He could have continued to serve his sentence, but this was the only way to get him home quickly."

She said his contract with the Russian Ministry of Defence was for a year, not six months, as it was for previous prisoners. And when her husband's time is up, he won't get a pardon and won't be able to go home immediately as the contract "will be automatically extended".

Posts on social media from other Russians whose relatives are serving in Storm V units indicate they too will have to stay on the front line until the end of what Moscow calls its "special military operation".

Prisoners are warned about this when they sign up, and it follows a September 2022 decree by Vladimir Putin which essentially means that when a contract expires it can't actually be terminated and is renewed.

Now the only way for prisoners to get a full release is if they get a state decoration, become incapacitated, reach the maximum age limit, or if the war itself ends.

Instead of a pardon, former prisoners now get what is described as a conditional release at the end of their time with the army. That means if they are found guilty of committing a new crime their sentence will also reflect their previous convictions.

President Putin is also no longer involved in personally signing pardons, which means fewer unwelcome headlines in the media about him pardoning people convicted of murder and sex crimes.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68140873

mapuc

02-04-24, 03:46 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-V0FBjM4H40&ab_channel=UkraineMatters

Markus

mapuc

02-05-24, 10:43 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R1qtLx-KD80&ab_channel=CombatVeteranReacts

Markus

Jimbuna

02-05-24, 02:43 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kjZrcwmDd8s

mapuc

02-06-24, 12:23 PM

WOW a kill/wounded ratio 1:20 in Ukraine favour

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oy7atJ-6rlM&ab_channel=CombatVeteranReacts

Markus

Dargo

02-06-24, 12:50 PM

Avdiivka will fall even with this kill ratio that is no problem, it is not that important (The strategic importance of the town, like Bakhmut, is incidentally minimal Avdiivka makes up barely 0.1 percent of Donetsk's territory.), it served/s its purpose destroying Russians and main cause because they lack the ammo to hold it no matter how great the losses, Russia just keep coming, literally crawling over the bodies of their fallen companions. "The enemy is only 1,200 meters from the entrance to the city and keeps attacking. Over six hundred aerial bombs have been dropped on the city in the past four weeks. The devastation is enormous."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Av0EyX16EVU

No Russian advances at Kupiansk, despite media report on troop concentration
Russian troops make no gains in Kupiansk as mobilized reserves replace losses, Ukraine military says, despite the media-reported Russian buildup of 500 tanks and 40K personnel. There have been no reported advances by Russian troops in the Kupiansk sector, and the mobilized reserves of the occupiers appear to be used to replace their losses, according to the Ukrainian militaryÂ’s remark regarding a media report on the concentration of Russian forces in the area.

This clarification came from the spokesman of UkraineÂ’s Khortytsia Operational and Strategic Grouping of Troops in response to ForbesÂ’ report about the concentration of 500 tanks, over 600 combat vehicles, hundreds of howitzers, and 40,000 occupiers in the Kupiansk sector, northeastern Ukraine. Â“This information is not new. I have been reporting on the enemyÂ’s troop numbers in the Lymansko-Kupiansk direction since the autumn, with a total strength of 110,000. If we can break it down by directions, the number remains relatively constant in the Kupiansk direction,Â” stated spokesman Illia Yevlash on Ukrainian TV, according to Liga... https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/02/06/military-no-russian-advances-at-kupiansk-despite-media-report-on-troop-concentration/

Jimbuna

02-06-24, 01:33 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IdgANdaEdfc

mapuc

02-07-24, 12:49 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tk5Be0--cUE&ab_channel=CombatVeteranReacts

Markus

Jimbuna

02-07-24, 02:07 PM

Vladimir Putin: Many Russians see no alternative candidate as election looms

In an exhibition hall opposite the Kremlin, Vladimir Putin walks onto a stage.

There's rapturous applause, a standing ovation.

No surprise there. The invited guests - many of them Russian celebrities - are officially supporting Mr Putin's candidacy in the presidential election in March.

The Kremlin leader is running for a fifth term in office. The audience here is only too pleased.

"[Putin's] an extraordinary leader, the most courageous and wise person," gushes filmmaker Andrei Konchalovsky.

"The Russian people have never been so united in their support for their president," claims singer Nadezhda Babkina. "And anyone who tries to prevent that will fail."

The idea behind the event (and this high-profile celebrity support) seems to be to show that candidate Putin is in a league of his own: Premier League Putin.

Keep in mind, though: this is a league he created and of which he's in charge. Russia's political system is Mr Putin's political system; his rules of the game; his election. Mr Putin's most vocal critics have long been relegated. They're either in exile or in prison.

Which makes elections here rather predictable.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68155986

Dargo

02-08-24, 11:28 AM

Zelenskyy: 'Time for renewed army leadership,' commander-in-chief Valeri Zaluzhny may stay on
Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief of the Army Valeri Zaluzhny will not be fired by President Zelensky after all. The latter says he met with Zaluzhny today to discuss "the necessary renewal of the army" and "who can be part of the renewed leadership of the army." "The time for this renewal is now," says Zelenskyy, indicating that there will indeed be changes at the top. But Zaluzhny himself will remain "on his team," Zelenskyy said. In recent weeks, rumours in Kyiv have been buzzing about a possible dismissal of Zaluzhny. According to several Ukrainian, as well as American media, Zelenskyy allegedly asked the four-star general to resign, which the latter refused. The rumours about the resignation of the immensely popular general already earned Zelenskyy considerable criticism. That may be why he has now decided to keep Zalushny at the top of the army after all.

Skybird

02-08-24, 12:04 PM

Dargo

02-08-24, 12:30 PM

Well - told you so! :O:

Bad for Ukraine, probably. Not helping Zelensky either. I even think it will backfier against his political standing. Zelensky's approval ratings have dropped below 60%. Zalushnji's are beyond 90%, almost 95%.

This will become a bad year for Ukraine. And the next will become even worse, most likely. Zelensky's approval ratings are doomed to drop further.Do not think replacing Zaluzhnyi will have much effect on the front the new Commander-in-Chief is capable, and it is team work approval ratings tells me nothing when there are no election possible like in most countries during a war there are no elections accord the constitution this all does not mean the war is over or going bad because who is in command worry more about the failed US support than who leads the war team.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy dismissed Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi and appointed General Oleksandr Syrskyi in his place. "I appointed Colonel-General Syrskyi as the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine," Zelenskyy said in a video address to the nation. “He has successful defense experience - he conducted the Kyiv defense operation. He also has a successful offensive experience - the Kharkiv liberation operation,” Zelenskyy said about Syrskyi. Zelenskyy also said in his video address that Generals Andrii Hnatov, Mykhailo Drapatyi, and Ihor Skybiuk, as well as Colonels Pavel Palisa and Vadym Sukharevskyi, are being considered for leadership positions in the army. "Starting today, a new management team will take over the Armed Forces' leadership," he added. Moments prior, Zelenskyy published a Telegram post featuring him standing together with Zaluzhnyi. "I met with General Zaluzhnyi, thanked him for two years of service," Zelenskyy said in the written statement. "We just met with the president. An important and serious conversation. A decision was made about the need to change approaches and strategy," Zaluzhnyi wrote. "The challenges of 2022 are different from those of 2024. Therefore, everyone must change and adapt to new realities. To win together," he added. https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-dismisses-commander-in-chief-zaluzhnyi/

Replacing generals is not so strange in wars happened in all wars if the results are not met than it is no surprise the one that failed to achieve the result that was asked has to go. In wars there are always moments when politics demand something that the army can not achieve like the fall of Tobruk in WWII or in Ukraine Robotyne politics want it, but generals know it is a huge gamble. Doing election during war is dangerous parts of Ukraine can not vote all near front, and you have to rotate troops to let them vote rotating troops is the dangerous thing there is bet Russia will attack on election day how do you want to do that safely without voters getting bombarded.

Jimbuna

02-08-24, 12:48 PM

'Reagan must be turning in his grave': Tusk criticizes U.S. Senate for hesitating to provide aid to Ukraine

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk criticized the U.S. Senate, which continues to hesitate to allocate aid to Ukraine. He even mentioned former U.S. President Ronald Reagan.

"Dear Republican Senators of America. Ronald Reagan, who helped millions of us to win back our freedom and independence, must be turning in his grave today. Shame on you," he writes.

The U.S. Senate voted on February 8 to block a bill to provide funding to support Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan and to secure the U.S. border. In the Senate vote on the night of February 8, 49 lawmakers voted in favor of the initiative, while 50 voted against it. In total, 60 votes were needed to get the legislative initiative off the ground.

Republicans have set conditions for Democrats to approve aid to Ukraine. It was about border security. Thus, Republicans threaten to withdraw aid to Ukraine if Democrats do not agree to tighten U.S. immigration laws. Other demands include restoring part of the wall on the border between the U.S. and Mexico, reducing the number of people who receive a "humanitarian password" to enter the U.S., and complicating the rules for obtaining asylum for migrants. Democrats, in turn, refuse to support such demands.

As Politico previously wrote, Ukraine has become a kind of hostage to a 30-year dispute between Republicans and Democrats over borders.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/reagan-must-be-turning-in-his-grave-tusk-criticizes-u-s-senate-for-hesitating-to-provide-aid-to-ukraine/ar-BB1hYneG?ocid=msedgntp&pc=U531&cvid=1d3279767f5b42e4819023f15cd9d107&ei=28

Jimbuna

02-08-24, 01:14 PM

It would appear that Zaluzhnyi has in fact gone.

mapuc

02-08-24, 01:15 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wVLWRO5Gj1M&ab_channel=CombatVeteranReacts

Markus

Dargo

02-08-24, 03:33 PM

Zelenskyy Finds a General
Ukrainian General Valerii Zaluzhny had the second-most-difficult job in the world. His boss has the most difficult one. On Thursday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced that he was removing General Valerii Zaluzhny from command of the military, and promoting General Oleksandr Syrsky, the head of the ground forces, to replace him. Predictably and understandably, there has already been a great deal of hand-wringing about Ukraine’s president cashiering his top general. Such concern is misplaced, not merely because it may be misinformed, but because it bespeaks a misunderstanding of sound civil-military relations.

Begin with what is actually known rather than rumored or surmised about the president and his general: that there has been tension for some time, possibly for as long as a year now. This rules out one possibility, which is that the dismissal reflects a major dispute about manpower, and specifically about conscription. In fact, Ukraine already has male conscription. There are real questions about mobilization and whether to call up those who have already served or who are currently exempt, but this debate seems to be more recent than the tension between Zelenskyy and Zaluzhny. Moreover, such decisions—involving the delicate balance among military needs, economic and defense-industrial requirements, and domestic political stability—need to rest in the hands of civilians, as was the case in the United States during the world wars, through the Selective Service System. That leaves two other possibilities. The first is a personal clash. Differences of personality and style, compounded by minor political intrigues in the president’s inner circle, might have produced a split. Or Zaluzhny might have, or be suspected of having, political aspirations. The other is a substantive disagreement. Zelenskyy might have lost confidence in Zaluzhny as the commander in chief of the armed forces... https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2024/02/zelensky-ukraine-russia-war-leadership-zaluzhny/677334/

I met General Syrsky before the war at D-10 in Avdiivka and under his command as a Legionnaire at Land Warfare HQ. I believe he is a good commander. Soldiers bitch about a lot. Few liked Patton, but he kicked ass. Trust those who have to risk or spill their blood to support the new commander. With a few Ukrainian exceptions, don’t listen to all the armchair analysts spelling doom. How would they know? They don’t. He’s killed more than a few tens of thousands of Russians in his time. Let him kill some more. https://twitter.com/MalcolmNance/status/1755667548127760758

Skybird

02-08-24, 07:41 PM

I do not say Sersky is no competent officer - he is, his name popped up during this war's time several times, always in a positive context. But he does not preach much differently than Zalushnji, and like his predecessor accentuates the need for modern technology and accompnying tactics. However, he has not the same popularity with the troops like Zalushnji, and especially not in the population. And this big public support for Zalushnji matters very much in regard to public and troop morale. Zelenskji got angry at Zalushnji when Zalushnji had enough of Zelenskji's endless display of unfounded optimism, and spoke tachless in his now famous essay for the Economist. As I see things from the distance, he simply spoke out the truth, while Zelensji endlessly blinds the Ukrainians - and these have started to realise it.

Zelenskji wanted to get rid of a potential and then potent political rival whose popularity more and more undermined his own declining authority. The job of Syrski now is to work miracles and wonders to reverse Zelenskji's decline with the population this way.

Note that a first attempt to fire Zalushnji in a soft exit, asking him to step down, was refused by the man - and that Wetsern leaders intervened on his behalf and wanted Zelenski to hold him. Also, Washington and Berlin and the others probably as well do not unconditionally trust Zelenski, never did, from beginning on. They remained to stay cautiously on their guard, sugarcoating that stand with lots of sweet cream and honeyful wordings that cost nothing.

Zelenskji can no longer work as the figurehead of Ukrainian resistence will, he has shot all his powder to get more weapons from the West, and the country now is taken hostage by the Republican mess in the US. Ukraine is helpless in this, can do nothing. With that being said, Zelenskji's star is descending. After all, Russia's superior economic and demographic and military weight and mass against the Ukraine makes itself being felt now. With US support gone, they can anger the Russians, and sting them in their rear, but they cannot reverse the general trend.

And when the looming Russian "elections" are done, Putin must not hold back with unpopular measures anymore.

The West had its chance. It let it pass by. Now what I see is just delaying the announcement of the result. But that causes its own costs in themselves.

The West acted very, very stupdily and cowardly. We should have gone "all in" in the first months already - or stayed out of it all, completely". The half-baked approach that was chosen, was and is not expedient and only serves to conceal the company's own failures.

The chance to end this conflict by beating the Russians their mouths bloody, was in the very beginning. It was then when all in support possible should have been activated and sent in. Now, over the long time, politically and materially and psychologically everything works for Russia and against Ukraine. Thats why I think the war is decided. They just delay the announcement of the outcome. The recipe to win the war was by deciding it very early on and to avoid, at all cost, a prolongued war like now. Russia now creeps in for the win. They will secure big chunks of territory from Ukraine, much of its industrial heart, and plenty of its agricultural farmground. Probably not this year, maybe not next year - but in the end of all this.

mapuc

02-09-24, 11:32 AM

Not going to watch this interview-What I have seen in the news clip is enough

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G0SONrU_eVQ&ab_channel=CombatVeteranReacts

Markus

Dargo

02-09-24, 12:52 PM

Not much to learn that Putin said already in the past. This was no interview Putin had total control over, Tucker Carlson (Vladimir Putin's useful idiot) playing to an American audience to weakening Western resolve. Orwellian newspeak. War is peace.
Freedom is slavery.
Ignorance is strength.
https://i.postimg.cc/pXMG0m1P/usefullidiot.jpg

:) Russian Telegram channels reported that the interview with Carlson and Carlson himself was not to Putin's liking, and the interview itself was considered a failure: "The Kovalchuk clan sharply criticizes the idea of an interview with the American journalist Carlson. They say that the problem is the unpreparedness of the interview arrangement - it was Gromov's and Peskov's mistake. Putin should have talked about conservative values, the creation of a conservative alliance, and moving on - but he went into history and platitudes about Ukraine. Naryshkin, who allegedly planted ideas with documents of Bohdan Khmelnytskyi and nonsense with Poland, also played a negative role here. He set Putin up to the fullest. Medinsky would not allow such a thing." According to reports, Putin didn't like Tucker Carlson - "a snob and a useful idiot who got a meaningful fee, but was lazy and lacked creativity." Kovalchuk family believes they could have done better with Tucker Carlson, but "everything was wasted." There's a wave of complaints in the Kremlin. https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1756043266804301881

Jimbuna

02-09-24, 01:37 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LNfJ311H_20

Jimbuna

02-09-24, 02:26 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DoK8w4AyA8o

Skybird

02-09-24, 03:55 PM

The new commander in chief has the nickname "butcher". He is a Russian by birth, and his military training he received according to post-Sovjet, Russian doctrine. While he acted successfully at Kiv, Charkiv and Bakhmut, he is also not undisputed, because he has the reputation of being merciless not just towards enemy troops, but also towards his own troops, thus his nickname. Andjust minuites ago I red that under his command most of Ukraine'S best special commandos and elite troops have been sacrificed for the defence of just symbologically objects. All in all, he wa ssuccessful so far, but he wore down hois troops tremendously.

He is also described as being loyal and uncritical to Zelenskji. Which probably is the real reason for Zelenskji's manouver. That Zalushnji opposed Zelenskji's hesitent recruitment policy, did not make it better for Zalushnji either.

I have doubts on the cleverness of this move, and I think it will do Ukraine not well. It solves none of the problems, but comes at the risk of even accelerating their worstening. It does cure none the base problems, namely that of lacking Western support.

Assessing this all on the basis of media reports only, of course.

Dargo

02-09-24, 04:32 PM

You have one side, praise him:
It seems that Syrsky is quietly fitting into the ranks of history's great strategists himself. Here and there, he is already being called the most successful general of the 21st century. His military ingenuity, according to former Colonel Roger Housen, is not inferior to that of German General Erwin Rommel or of other ringing names in the history of war. "I would put him in the Champions League of generals," Housen said. "He's really in that class of George Patton or Dwight Eisenhower." While President Volodymyr Zelenskyy insisted to the Ukrainian people that a Russian invasion was unlikely, Syrsky prepared for the worst. He divided the city into sectors, each with its own commander, had two rows of defences built, and blew up dams around the city to stop the Russian advance. His defensive strategy was successful: Russia failed to take the Ukrainian capital. Later, Syrsky led a successful counteroffensive in the eastern Ukrainian province of Kharkiv. As a young officer, he was sent to Afghanistan, where Soviet forces were forced to withdraw in 1989. Before the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, he was also stationed in Tajikistan and the Czech Republic. Because of his experience, he knows the Russian military inside and out.

In the Russian capital, he graduated in 1986 from one of the most prestigious military academies in the then Soviet Union. There he was prepared to go to war against the U.S. and Western Europe. As a young officer, he was sent to Afghanistan, where Soviet forces were forced to withdraw in 1989. Before the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, he was also stationed in Tajikistan and the Czech Republic. Because of his experience, he knows the Russian military inside and out. "A huge advantage," Housen says. "He can really see into his opponent's head now, because he himself has been trained in the Russian system." Shortly after the turn of the century, Syrsky was appointed general. In 2013, Syrsky was given responsibility for cooperation between the Ukrainian army and NATO, where he was introduced to the strategic thinking of Western armies.

So that knowledge has already paid off. Syrsky, who has been fighting Russian-backed separatists since 2014, was able to exploit the weaknesses of Vladimir Putin's forces very quickly in the invasion. The Russian military has a top-down command structure, allowing lower ranking officers to take little initiative. That makes it difficult for Russian units to adapt to changing circumstances. "But on the battlefield, you have to seize opportunities precisely when they arise," Housen said. "Syrsky actually encouraged his officers to take advantage of them. At the beginning of the invasion, he allowed his troops to use hit-and-run tactics to attack the Russians and retreat quickly."

Other side:
When the war in eastern Ukraine began a year later, "the snow leopard," as he is known in the military, was appointed deputy chief of staff of Ukrainian forces in the war zone. Near the town of Debaltseve, Syrsky first showed his ruthless side: after the Ukrainians were surrounded there, Syrsky forbade the soldiers to surrender. Instead, he devised a risky nighttime escape. Most of the soldiers managed to escape, but more than a hundred were killed. Syrsky received a high military decoration for his "extraordinary merits" at Debaltseve. In the fall of 2022, Syrsky was given command of the defense of the eastern Ukrainian town of Bakhut. The battle of Bakhut, which lasted nearly a year, became one of the bloodiest confrontations since the war began. Although Bakhut had little strategic value and Ukraine suffered heavy losses in its defense, Syrsky refused to give up the town: Russian losses were even greater, and keeping the Russians busy at Bakhut allowed Ukraine to recover in other places. Not all Ukrainian soldiers supported the intransigence at Bakhut, which cost many soldiers their lives. In the trenches, soldiers would call the general "General 200" behind his back, after the code number used to designate fallen soldiers. At the town of Soledar, near Bachmoet, he had soldiers fight for a year and a half straight, with no possibility of leave.
---
Thus, the news that Syrsky is the new commander of the Ukrainian army has been met with mixed feelings. On the one hand, he is known as an effective and experienced general who knows how to defeat a better-equipped opponent. However, his reputation among the soldiers is dubious, and Syrsky is also no match for his immensely popular predecessor Zaluzhny in terms of charisma. Moreover, Syrsky speaks Ukrainian with a strong Russian accent, to the displeasure of some patriotic Ukrainians. Do not think he is the problem on this moment lack of ammo and infantry will force Ukraine to tactical redraw in some areas of the front to better defence positions they have no choice on the moment there is still good news it is said that shells are coming from South Africa hope these reach the front on time also this war is turning into a drone war more and more with Ukraine at this moment with the majority of drone strikes. But also mistakes are made, Ukraine is too late with his build up of his defence lines they had to begin with this in October 2023 to have them ready do not know the extent of progress, but good secure defence line saves a lot of lives. Time will tell.

Assessing this all on the basis of media reports only, of course. ;)

About the butcher naming, They Called Grant a Butcher. But can a butcher have regrets? (https://www.battlefields.org/learn/articles/they-called-grant-butcher-can-butcher-have-regrets)
---
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has replaced Chief of General Staff Serhi Shaptala. He is to make way for Anatoli Barhylevych, former chief of staff for Territorial Defence. Zelenskyy described Barhilevych in a video address Friday night as "an experienced person who understands the tasks of this war and Ukraine's objectives. In Ukraine, the commander of the armed forces and the chief of the general staff are two different positions. The chief of the general staff's responsibilities include ensuring that the armed forces have the right equipment to fight. According to the Ukrainian president, the renewals are necessary because so far the goals are not being achieved.

Dargo

02-09-24, 05:31 PM

There is no limit to arms support for Ukraine, outgoing Dutch Defence Minister Ollongren believes. "When it comes to weapons, conventional weapons, training and spare parts there should be no limit, as far as I'm concerned" Ollongren believes it is important to support Ukraine "permanently." "I think we have evolved in how we do that," the minister says in the interview in which she looks back on her time as defence minister. "We started supplying from our own stockpile, and now we do it in cooperation with other countries and industries because we also had to keep our stockpile up."

Not only Ukraine, but also the security of the Netherlands benefits from the military support, Ollongen stressed. "It is not like we are sitting here safely behind the dikes. We are part of the EU and NATO, and it can also affect us." She points out that it is a large-scale war, with trenches and drones. "That's what awaits us if we don't handle this wisely." She thinks it is important that the Netherlands allocate enough money for defence.

mapuc

02-09-24, 06:00 PM

I'm fully convinced if Ukraine get what it needs in war material-such as weapon weapon system and lots of ammo-Ukraine going to win this war.

Markus

Skybird

02-09-24, 06:34 PM

You guys always give long quotes of what Western politicians have said. Talk is cheap. Most of it is Bla and more Bla and then plenty of Blablabla. Most of the time it means nothing to me.

And even where there would be the will - question remains how there could be a way. Production limitations are real. And Western weapons are often overdesigned super-dooper platforms that were not made for long attrition warfare and cannot be easily replaced or repaired, but are overengineered primadonnas. The Russians have it easier, they never meant their tanks to last long time, and different to all Western states, Russia has switched to full war production and has allies also delivering it stuff. The Western states not trading wiht Russia - are a global minority. We even buy their oil, still so, and other ressoruces. Just via third party traders like India. We buy teir oil, for a lot more money.

Energy production, industry production and critical infrastruture in Ukraine now is in a worse condition than it was last February. Ukraine's overall situation has worstened. It gains small tactical victories, but in the bigger picture of the full war they remain to be mostly meaningless. Russia creeps forward. It creeps, but it goes forward.

I see currently no chance for the liberation of the Eastern oblasts, or Russia fleeing from Crimea. That sounds like science fiction currently.

Skybird

02-10-24, 07:51 AM

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/02/10/europe/syrskyi-ukraine-challenges-war-intl/index.html

In the immediate future, the Ukrainian leadership must show unity after what has been a messy changeover. Myhailo Podolyak, an adviser to the office of the President, said that “during a war, political competition, especially at the level of the army, generals, and politicians, doesn’t look so good.”
Instilling a new sense of purpose is all the more important as Ukraine faces a window of vulnerability.
As Matthew Schmidt puts it, Putin “can throw bodies at the enemy, using Russian quantity to overcome Ukrainian quality. It’s a very Stalinist approach to the battlefield, and it’s built into Russian strategic culture.”

I still think Zelenskji made a mistake there, out of political selfishness.

Appointing a general as supreme commander who is influenced by Soviet military doctrine and tends to wear out his own troops in a correspondingly nefarious manner does not seem to me to be a good idea when you yourself are outnumbered and at the same time refuse to take unpopular measures to increase the recruitment rate. And in terms of equipment and material, the change will not solve any of Ukraine's problems. Ukraine is increasingly outmanned, outgunned, and outdroned. The trend worstens, and Ukrainians are exhausted. If it is not being stopped and reversed, breaking point is inevitable and just a question of time - morale and F-16s alone will not stop Russia.

Dargo

02-10-24, 09:30 AM

All Ukraine military are schooled with the soviet doctrine, Valerij Zaloezjny and Oleksandr Syrskyi both in the processes of cooperation with NATO are also schooled in western doctrine of conducting war. Knowing how the enemy thinks and acts is a big advance, both commanders showed this advance on the battleground, Oleksandr Syrskyi clearly put this NATO doctrine in action in the defence of Kyiv.

The Battle of Debaltseve
Oleksandr Syrskyi was one of the chief commanders of the anti-terrorist operation forces during the battle of Debaltseve in the winter of 2015, together with the Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Viktor Muzhenko they went to the city itself. He led the battles in Vuhlehirsk, the village of Ridkodub and an unsuccessful attempt to recapture Lohvynove. He also coordinated the withdrawal of the Ukrainian military from Debaltseve. Under his leadership, possible routes of crossing the Karapulka River were blown up. Ukrainian forces began to withdraw from Debaltseve in the early morning on 18 February. After loading, the column of about 2,500 men, including tanks and other armoured vehicles, began to proceed away from the city. During the evacuation, full-scale street fighting continues and there was also a small tank battle. The Ukrainian death toll was 267 dead, the Ukraine army could retreat 80% of the Ukrainian troops that had been in the city.

Saying Oleksandr Syrskyi is or does this or that is not based on facts sure soldiers biaach but that they also did against Valerij Zaloezjny the military is given a task by politics the result is not always what was thought of that is life plans can go horrible wrong there is no magical wand.

Skybird

02-10-24, 10:17 AM

Yes, they all were originally trained according to Sovjet doctrine, point is Syrskj got his nickname because troops criticise him for still ticking Sovjet-drill style. Hence his nickname, "General Butcher" - due to his "butchering" of own troops. He is responsible for having depleted most of Ukraine's best commands and special units, critics say and report for questionable operational objectives. The general outcome may give him right, but his own troops fear him for wasting them too carelessly. Zalushnji is seens as the morew realiostic and regarding NATO adaptation: more competent commander. Syrskj also is said to be more obedient to Zelenskyi, while Zalushnji told Zelenskji more often how things really were. And that may not have gone too well with Zelenskji, especially after Zalushnji's desperate essay for The Economist. It was an alarm call by him since Zelenskji did not listen, it was not subordination.

The problems the new commander faces, remain unchanged. If he has scored visible imrovements by the end of the year and they can afford the costs for these, then the change was correct. If not, or there is further worstening, then it was no correct.

Also, the public approval thing. Zelenskj's star is descending with his people, Zalushnji's was still rising and already at a peak. And the man is not dead he is still there, he also has rejected to get moved off the playboard by becoming ambassador to the - distant, far away - UK. He still is a political problem for Zelenskji, if he indeed was a threat to him, he still is so. I cannot read the man's mind and intentions, of course.

Dargo

02-10-24, 10:47 AM

Oleksandr Syrskyi earned him the gruesome nickname of "Butcher" overseeing last year's dogged 9-month defence of Bakhmut it is one of the longest and bloodiest battles of the war so far described as a "meat grinder" and a "vortex" for both the Ukrainian and Russian militaries. Not so surprised he earned that nickname. Same anonymous sources because this all based on anonymous sources forget to mention the defence of Kyiv (and he started planning this way before Russia invaded) that he led with a totally other doctrine, this is more politics than it has anything to do with the military reality on the front. Any commander in a similar situation that has given the task to hold a city nearing kettle does the same, there are in history many generals who faced same situation similar also this was all planned and ordered under the command of the army chief General Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, who many Ukrainians see as a national hero but in reality the team are the heroes.

That Syrskj is said to be more obedient as Zelenskiy could be... but nobody knows for sure if you get more and more task you do not see the same as the politic leader people change.

mapuc

02-10-24, 12:15 PM

It wouldn't matter who's in charge for the UAF if military supplies comes to an end.

Markus

Jimbuna

02-10-24, 12:20 PM

Zelensky discusses Ukraine's defense needs with Macron by telephone

President Volodymyr Zelensky wrote on Feb. 10 that he had a "very positive and focused call" with French President Emmanuel Macron to discuss Ukraine's defense needs and the situation along the front line.

Ukraine's defense needs encompass drones, artillery, ammunition, electronic warfare capabilities, and a spectrum of air defense systems, varying from portable to long-range, according to Zelensky.

Zelensky and Macron also reportedly discussed preparing a bilateral document outlining security commitments, drawing from the principles outlined in the G7 Vilnius Declaration.

G7 leaders presented the declaration at the July NATO summit in Vilnius. The Group of Seven comprises Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the U.K., the U.S., and the EU.

The declaration envisages that each member would focus on long-term bilateral cooperation to help Ukraine build up a military force capable of defending the country and deterring future Russian aggression.

The cooperation would include providing modern military equipment on land, in the air, and at sea, training, intelligence sharing, developing resistance to cyber and hybrid threats, supporting Ukraine's defense industrial base, and interoperability with NATO forces.

"Such security agreements demonstrate Europe's leadership, motivate Ukrainian society and warriors, and send a strong signal to Russia about Europe's unwavering support for Ukraine," Zelensky said.
https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-discusses-ukraines-defense-needs-with-macron-by-telephone/

Dargo

02-10-24, 12:36 PM

It wouldn't matter who's in charge for the UAF if military supplies comes to an end.

MarkusAgree the main problem is too few at the moment and slow delivery of military supplies. The U.S. army increase production of 28,000 155-millimeter howitzer rounds a month by the spring and 40,000 rounds per month by 2025 Army acquisition secretary Doug Bush said the service now aims to boost its monthly production to 36,000 by March, 60,000 by September, 70,000 to 80,000 in early 2025, and 100,000 by the end of calendar 2025. The countries of the European Union began with a head start, producing about 230,000 155mm shells a year, about one-third more than the U.S. By February 2023, European production was at 300,000 rounds annually, according to Estonian defence officials. By November, capacity had risen again, though assessments differ. European Commissioner for the Internal Market Thierry Breton suggested that Europe could now make some 400,000 rounds annually. Estonia’s Pevkur, speaking at a November media roundtable, put the figure between 600,000 and 700,000 and said it would reach one million rounds in 2024. But the EU will not meet its goal this spring, Estonian defence official Kusti Salm said the plan would likely be fulfilled by mid-2024. And in the long term, Pevkur said, even more shells will be required to backfill stocks, support NATO regional plans, and keep Ukraine in the fight Pevkur estimation is that we have to produce in the next ten years around 3 million rounds in a year.

In October, NATO’s senior military officer, Adm. Rob Bauer, said that the price for one 155mm shell had risen from 2,000 euros ($2,171) at the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion to 8,000 euros ($8,489.60). For comparison, the U.S. currently pays $3,000 for its most modern shells, according to an Army spokesperson. That price includes the charge, fuse, and shell body. Unlike the U.S., European 155mm production is primarily in the hands of the commercial market. That means that European countries can incentivize production increases through purchases, but cannot order factories to invest in automation, double shifts, or build new plants, as the U.S. has. There really isn’t any government that can command industry to produce more, they have to place orders through contracts.

Some individual countries have ordered more munitions. Germany and the Netherlands budgeted billions more in military aid for Ukraine, november 2023. Still, overall defense spending across Europe remains sluggish.

Dargo

02-10-24, 01:50 PM

We have to be careful that we don't become well typical of the Free West typical of the modern culture of we've seen that now, and we're starting to get pretty bored, and we're in the mood for a nice film and that the public is very quickly bored and strongly both politically and culturally shows enormously fickle behaviour. We always have some new hype, some new panic, we're a bit of a hysterical society and of course that's down to how we can actually live an enormously contented pleasant materially quite secure life. So an enormous amount of time has to be filled with things that are seemingly of the enormous importance. I find questionable that you have this whole atmosphere of we've, seen it now it's sitting, a little bit against it's not fun any more, the flags aren't flying any more hanging, a little limp along the masts. No, it is still a matter of eminent strategic importance that that war in Ukraine at least is not lost whether that war can be won totally in 100% I doubt. But the fact that Putin can take a country just like that is 100% a signal that they are winning in the anti-West bloc.

I think Zelenskyy did a fantastic job under those difficult circumstances O okay people around Zelenskyy say to the media to expect that these mistakes will still have painful political consequences, but first the war has to be won, well that may take some time. I don't think that war can be won at all in the sense that where Putin throws in the towel and disappears and immigrates to Tibet or something. It is more difficult laborious, it's going to take longer than we thought and because we prefer it all to be triumphant, the sun keeps shining, the flags keep flying that there's nothing difficult in particular and where we don't suffer either. We're now in a bit of a depressed atmosphere around this war, which is not justified in my opinion. Again, it is of eminent importance that Putin is finally put in his place. Winston Churchill in World War II proposed all kinds of things that were utterly knackered, but it's a good thing he was there because he did the right things. Because he assured the British at the moment supreme that they had to fight on that it was important that they fight on, and you need somebody like that, so he knew how to do that in a convincing way. So is Zelenskyy perfect, no, but Zelenskyy emerged as a deserving war leader.

It is also a bit of Zelenskyy disappoints us a bit. We still sat and cried at the TV, but we don't have that any more. It is all part of one of a broad pattern of, how shall I put it, strong sentiments and utter thoughtlessness