Here we go again-Ukraine once again

[Skybird]

Thats not weasely, thats legal fact. Treaty's law. NATO has no claim over a single member nation's political acting. Not even if activating article 5! :03: The US has not signed that cluster ammo treaty, and thats it. It must not obey it, therefore. Collective decision making, you say? Regarding actions and policies authorized by NATO, yes. And even then the case you try to make is not as solid and clear as you maybe wish it would be.

The Ukraine as the victim has any right to defend itself in the way it sees fit. There is nothing to debate. It wants clusters, sees value in using them on its territory, and so be it.

However. Peace, bro.

[mapuc]

We should not forget the Ukrainians are going to use these cluster bombs at the front not against civilians as the Russian does.

Markus

[Exocet25fr]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TWR9aJg2UG8

[MaDef]

Well that is the weasily justification which is being used, but NATO is supposed to be an alliance where decisions are taken collectively. Notice how all the Western European politicians are being very silent on the issue.

Now you are not going to see any pushback on this decision in the Western media in Europe and North America where everyone is "Rah, Rah, Ukraine, Go!" as if it is a football match.

Where the shoe drops is in the ROW: Asia, Middle East, Africa, Latin America where this is seen as just one more example that there is one set of rules for the West and another for the rest and that this war is just a proxy war between the USA and Russia that they want no part of.
You may see it that way, but NATO is is really nothing more than a mutual defensive agreement between member states when threatened by non-member states. Neither Ukraine or Russia are member states.

There are really only 2 "nevers" when fighting a war, Never deliberately target civilians and never use NBC (nuclear, biological, chemical) munitions.
Doing so makes you an instant pariah in the eyes of the world.

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wcdZ3pBROCA

[mapuc]

In Sweden there are ordinary Swedes who wants to burn the Quran not because they dislike Islam, no it's for preventing Sweden become NATO member. So far 3 Swedish citizens has asked the police.

Markus

[Platapus]

https://www.azquotes.com/picture-quotes/quote-hypocrites-are-those-who-apply-to-others-the-standards-that-they-refuse-to-accept-for-noam-chomsky-90-3-0332.jpg

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sa5Gq1fLVJA

[Exocet25fr]

Ukrainians haven't ammo anymore, and Russians have Two shovels only !?, and No artillery!?. Ukrainians don't need cluster bombs in this case....?:06: The war is over!. It's time for negociate, NO ?

The Ukrainians are going to use these cluster bombs at the front not against civilians but on their OWN territory....?

TOUT CELA VA MAL FINIR...........BoumBoumBadaBoum.......!

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nt2d0y4wtIc

[tonschk]

Really?. So far I know President Putin want to achieve Denazification of the current ukraine Nazi dictatorial regime, Just curiosity where you got such disinformation with credible links?



Russia has clearly said it wants the Ukraine to stop to exist as a state and as an ethnic group and culture, which proves the intention for announced genocide.

[Rockstar]

Really?. So far I know President Putin want to achieve Denazification of the current ukraine Nazi dictatorial regime, Just curiosity where you got such disinformation with credible links?

Dude, all you have to do is read or listen to Russian State news outlets.

[tonschk]

Like this ? https://www.newsweek.com/russia-not-committing-genocide-ukraine-opinion-1807046


Dude, all you have to do is read or listen to Russian State news outlets.

[Rockstar]

What do you mean, “like this”? I read the article, but since you brought it up and linked it. Do me a favor and tell me what your understanding of it is.

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gTCULtiw5h8

[Skybird]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66113460

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DOEuRcX6xzE

[Skybird]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gTCULtiw5h8
No surprise. As I often said, Paris and Berlin do not want Ukraine in NATO due to their fears to loose influence themselves when balance of power shifts to Warsaw and Kyiv. The germans also do not want to confront Russia too, due to fears. That beside Germany also America is hesitent to give them membership, is logical if you remmeber that American and German companies are the two leading actors who sitll do busines sin Russia and generate profound proft for themsleves - and tax revenue for Russia to feed its war. And we do not talk about energy and ore, but consumer products.

Ukriane ahs been given guarasntees two times before, and both times it got betrayed on them. Espoecially German guarantees are worth brown stuff since Germany is unable to fulfill any such obilgations in case of conflict due to its laughable military. An additional standing heavy division for NATO until 2027 - will not happen. A heavy brigade fully deployed in Lithuania - forget it.

Many in the German SPD still have not understood that their long-lastign love affair with the Sovjet Union and later Russia, is done. Many in there still deny it. And private business in significant part ignores it anyway. "Wandel durch Handel" (change by trade) is an old SPD motto, but it is wrong and always was wrong, it collapsed regarding Russia, and regarding China. It simply is foolish emotional nonsense. Trade has long served China to force change in Europe in China's favor.

[Skybird]

https://www.dw.com/en/how-prepared-is-nato-in-europe-for-a-russian-threat/video-66150792

Sind wir eigentlich alle völlig vertrottelt in Europa ?

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sjDFyQHjnLg

[tonschk]

THE US TAXPAYER MONEY GOES DOWN THE DRAIN IN UKRAINE

https://www.bitchute.com/video/J2weDcTxhx8e/

https://www.hostpic.org/images/2307091826500291.png (https://www.hostpic.org/view.php?filename=2307091826500291.png)

[tonschk]

NATO'S TERRORISTS NAZI PLANS ARE CRUMBLING! RUSSIA MANAGE TO DESTROY A WAREHOUSE WITH BRITISH 'CHALLENGER' TANKS IN LVIV!

https://www.bitchute.com/video/VZ2skqRxRrU3/

https://www.hostpic.org/images/2307091833370291.png (https://www.hostpic.org/view.php?filename=2307091833370291.png)

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=huHg8ze_bPY

[Skybird]

Putin apparently has sowed off Gerasimov. Concession to Prigozhin?

[Bilge_Rat]

You may see it that way, but NATO is is really nothing more than a mutual defensive agreement between member states when threatened by non-member states. Neither Ukraine or Russia are member states.

There are really only 2 "nevers" when fighting a war, Never deliberately target civilians and never use NBC (nuclear, biological, chemical) munitions.
Doing so makes you an instant pariah in the eyes of the world.

That is not really the issue, Cluster Munitions are either a legitimate weapon of war or they are not.

If NATO members who signed the Convention believe these weapons should be illegal, they should state their position clearly and make it clear that they disagree with the decision to give Cluster Munitions to Ukraine and do everything they can to block the transfer as required by the Convention.

If on the other hand, they now think DPICM are legitimate weapons, they should have the courage to say they made a mistake, withdraw from the Convention and say they reserve the right to use Cluster Munitions in the future depending on the situation.

Right now, you have the situation where NATO members who signed the Convention are saying they still abide by the terms of the Convention, but "nod, nod, wink, wink", we won't protest too much if they are supplied to Ukraine as long as we don't have to get our hands dirty, because it is a popular political position.

In other words, the West wants to hold the moral high ground of saying Cluster Munitions should be illegal, but still be able to give them out to "Friendly Regimes" whenever they want....

...as I said previously, it is the height of hypocrisy....but what else would you expect from Western politicians.

[Catfish]

Seems the russian military is "a bit" confused, and the higher ranks are slaughtering each other :rolleyes:

"Since the full-scale invasion began, Putin has changed commanders of the Russian army in Ukraine at least four times - it still remains unclear who led the invasion in its first weeks, ISW remarks. It's possible Putin wanted to take all credit for the dramatic victory he expected, experts believe."

"Since April 2022 Aleksandr Dvornikov headed Russian troops in Ukraine, to be replaced by Gennadiy Zhidko two months later. Zhidko was replaced in October, after the Russian troops retreated from Kharkiv region. Sergey Surovikin took his place and engaged in mass strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure. Surovikin lasted until January, and was replaced by Gerasimov. Now, it seems, Gerasimov had to make way for Teplinsky."

Day 500 in the russian plan to take Kyyiv in 5 days.
I wonder why this war was started at all. Seems no one cares anyway in the Rodina. And Putin had some bad advisors. Senseless and useless, just a lot of people dying and Russia will not get out of this anymore.
Maybe there will be a war extending to Moscow but whatever happens, no way to let them ever take a seat on the international table again. That ship has sailed.

[Catfish]

This is an interesting video about a book (published appx. 2016), comprising the history of Russia from Yeltsin to Putin, and what went wrong –
hint: the west has completely misunderstood what was going on in Russia from 1989 to now.

The 1999 apartment 'terrorist' bombings (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1999_Russian_apartment_bombings) and the "re"action that made Putin so popular (and gave him a reason for war in Dagestan and Chechenia) were obviously staged by the successor organisation of the KGB, the FSB.

"The less you know, the better you sleep"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oBD3LzbGrYU

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a4hYbaIvh-w

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2qsJOb2pvFM

[Skybird]

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is now tying Sweden's accession to NATO to his country's further rapprochement with the European Union - up to and including full membership.

I have a good - and the only conceivable - answer to that. "No." Instead: an ongoing intensified isolation of Turkey by the other NATO members, up to and including non-invitations to NATO meetings, unproclaimed exclusion from the flow of intelligence and satellite data, and interruption of deliveries of military goods and military repair parts under pretextual reasons. Further, a de facto treatment of Sweden as if it were a member, the treatment of Swedish military units as if they were members, and an ignoring of Turkish traraas and carping, without comment, and simply ignoring Turkey.

Turkey with access to EU money pots - and influence (including blocking rights and blackmailing) on decision making processes. That would have just been missing. A worst case scenario.

At least he has now exposed himself that the accusations that Sweden provides terror assistance to the PKK, were only opportunistic pretext.

[mapuc]

Makes one wonder where Erdogan stands in this.

Have no prof that he is helping Russia, 'cause if Sweden becomes a member Russia would lose a major strategic position in the Baltic. NATO will have access to Gotland. Gotland is a very important strategic island.

Markus

[Jimbuna]

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is now tying Sweden's accession to NATO to his country's further rapprochement with the European Union - up to and including full membership.

I have a good - and the only conceivable - answer to that. "No." Instead: an ongoing intensified isolation of Turkey by the other NATO members, up to and including non-invitations to NATO meetings, unproclaimed exclusion from the flow of intelligence and satellite data, and interruption of deliveries of military goods and military repair parts under pretextual reasons. Further, a de facto treatment of Sweden as if it were a member, the treatment of Swedish military units as if they were members, and an ignoring of Turkish traraas and carping, without comment, and simply ignoring Turkey.

Turkey with access to EU money pots - and influence (including blocking rights and blackmailing) on decision making processes. That would have just been missing. A worst case scenario.

At least he has now exposed himself that the accusations that Sweden provides terror assistance to the PKK, were only opportunistic pretext.

Totally agree but I think we all know the answer will be a definitive 'NO'

[Skybird]

The Russioans should have gotten theior hands on a Storm Shadow. Too bad if thats true, this missile will now be carefully studied - to jam it more effectively in the future better in the future by also messing up not just its GPS link, but also its inertia navigation system that lets it hitting its target even if GPS connection got jammed.

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jEapUpV6to0

[Dargo]

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is now tying Sweden's accession to NATO to his country's further rapprochement with the European Union - up to and including full membership.

I have a good - and the only conceivable - answer to that. "No." Instead: an ongoing intensified isolation of Turkey by the other NATO members, up to and including non-invitations to NATO meetings, unproclaimed exclusion from the flow of intelligence and satellite data, and interruption of deliveries of military goods and military repair parts under pretextual reasons. Further, a de facto treatment of Sweden as if it were a member, the treatment of Swedish military units as if they were members, and an ignoring of Turkish traraas and carping, without comment, and simply ignoring Turkey.

Turkey with access to EU money pots - and influence (including blocking rights and blackmailing) on decision making processes. That would have just been missing. A worst case scenario.

At least he has now exposed himself that the accusations that Sweden provides terror assistance to the PKK, were only opportunistic pretext.Turkey does not have so many protocols in order on that base EU will always say no think Ukraine will get an ok earlier than Turkey. And taking Sweden hostage over an EU membership is no go, so contradicting EU founding standards.

[Skybird]

Erdoghan probably wants the EU to come up for the costs of his messy economics, and probably eyes a customs union and visa freedom. Especially to the latter I again say "No".

[mapuc]

Sadly NATO does not have an article that exclude a member state.

Could be handy now in these days.

Ukraine is closer to a membership than Sweden is.

Markus

[Dargo]

German arms manufacturer will build and repair tanks in Ukraine
German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall wants to open a factory in Ukraine within three months, director Armin Papperger tells US news channel CNN (https://edition.cnn.com/2023/07/10/business/rheinmetall-german-tank-factory-ukraine?cid=external-feeds_iluminar_google). At the factory, Rheinmetall will build and repair tanks and armoured vehicles. The German company also wants to train Ukrainians in maintaining the vehicles.

Ukraine has long been trying to convince Western arms manufacturers to start producing and repairing weapons and ammunition on Ukrainian territory. However, many companies are reluctant to open factories in Ukraine as long as the war continues. For security reasons, the Rheinmetall plant will be located in the west of the country, at a relatively long distance from the front. The German company will cooperate with Ukrainian state-owned Ukroboronprom, which will also own the complex.

[Jimbuna]

Can't see the Russians allowing it to operate for more than a few days at best before they've destroyed it.

[Dargo]

Can't see the Russians allowing it to operate for more than a few days at best before they've destroyed it.I would build it in Poland, Russia than can not bomb it.

[Jimbuna]

Good idea and I should imagine Poland would welcome the chance....the only downside would be NATO being seen as being more involved.

[Dargo]

Good idea and I should imagine Poland would welcome the chance....the only downside would be NATO being seen as being more involved.The CEO of Rheinmetall, Armin Papperger, said he is not afraid of Russian retaliation and assured that the company has already taken all necessary measures to protect its assets and personnel in Ukraine. “There are a lot of factories at the moment which are producing military goods [in Ukraine]. It is just another one. And we can protect that also,” Papperger said.

[Catfish]

Had posted this before, but now watched it to the end.
It will not get better until some drastic changes are being made. I take it the free world has to declare war on Russia to once and for all remove this "government".

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oBD3LzbGrYU

[mapuc]

I hope it would not come so far that NATO have to declare war on Russia in order to remove Putin.

However as the war goes on in Ukraine though higher is the risc NATO gets involved more and more than they are today.

Markus

[Dargo]

Glad to announce that after the meeting I hosted with @RTErdogan & @SwedishPM, President Erdogan has agreed to forward #Sweden's accession protocol to the Grand National Assembly ASAP & ensure ratification. This is an historic step which makes all #NATO Allies stronger & safer. https://twitter.com/jensstoltenberg/status/1678484703060324359

[Catfish]

re Mapuc

It is not about Putin anymore. This sick cleptocracy system has to be destroyed, the leaders do not care the slightest about their people. The russian people have shown they cannot do it, just like with Germany until 1945 or China right now.
Once a psychopath acquqires all the power and uses it for decades, the whole govenment and system is poisoned and spoilt. Medjedjev will not be any better, and you can only hope that Prigozhin or some decalcomania will not be the next "leader" [sic!]. This is a fascist state with a Mafia at the helm.

[Dargo]

re Mapuc

It is not about Putin anymore. This [sick I]system[/I] has to be destroyed, the leaders do not care the slightest about their people. The russian people have shown they cannot do it, just like with Germany until 1945 or China right now.
Once a psychopath acquqires all the power and uses it for decades, the whole govenment and system is poisoned and spoilt. Medjedjev will not be any better, and you can only hope that Prigozhin or some decalcomania will not be the next "leader" [sic!]. This is a fascist state with a Mafia at the helm.And this can not be done by outsiders, Russia has to do it themselves.

[mapuc]

And this can not be done by outsiders, Russia has to do it themselves.

Will we see a second revolution in Russia ? If so, when will the people have enough of this war..?
Already now there sabotage against military installations and other military complex.

Glad Turkey have said yes to Sweden.

Markus

[Dargo]

Will we see a second revolution in Russia ? If so, when will the people have enough of this war..?
Already now there sabotage against military installations and other military complex.

Glad Turkey have said yes to Sweden.

MarkusRevolutions are hard to predict even Lenin had it wrong several times he did not see the revolution of 1917 the whole leadership of the Bolshevik were even not in Russia when it happend. The local Bolshevik were against the strike of women in St Petersburg that was the start of the revolution. Lenin was acutely aware that revolutions occur because of spontaneous combustions that no one, including the revolutionaries, can predict. The February 1917 revolution was, like the French storming of the Bastille, an unexpected and unplanned popular eruption. As the hapless Alexander Kerensky pointed out, the Russian Revolution “came of its own accord, unengineered by anyone, born in the chaos of the collapse of Tsardom.” This is true for all revolutions. The tinder is there. What sets it alight is a mystery.

[Catfish]

[...] when will the people have enough of this war..? [...] Markus
You do not really expect the russian people to be asked by their fascist "leader"?

[Jeff-Groves]

Will we see a second revolution in Russia ? If so, when will the people have enough of this war..?

The questionnaires were lost in the mail.
Just like the ones in the USA.
:o

[mapuc]

You do not really expect the russian people to be asked by their fascist "leader"?

No not from their leaders no. From our news source which reach more and more Russians.

They try to prevent them from getting knowledge about the war.

Even the Russians bloggers are starting to write the truth about the war.

Markus

[Catfish]

The questionnaires were lost in the mail.
Just like the ones in the USA.
:o
The video explains why they were "lost" in the US :har:
"Presidents" :rotfl2::rotfl2:

[Catfish]

No not from their leaders no. From our news source which reach more and more Russians.
They try to prevent them from getting knowledge about the war.
Fair enough, yes.
Even the Russians bloggers are starting to write the truth about the war.
Markus
The latter is because a lot of them are "disenchanted" with the result. They begin to realize they are losing. It is not because they think that war is bad, or that Putin is a reckless dictator, also being a bad statesman and an idiot.
Make no mistake, it is just because they do not win.
No idea or care about losses, no idea about who started this, no idea about their own people, humanity or caring for anyone.
They can go to HELL.

[Jeff-Groves]

The video explains why they were "lost" in the US :har:
"Presidents" :rotfl2::rotfl2:
The video might explain it but.....
What the hell is a free country?
:hmmm:

[Catfish]

What the hell is a free country?
:hmmm:
oh please. Everything is relative alright.
But do you want to live in North Korea, China or Russia if you have the choice? :hmmm:
Apples and oranges?

[Dargo]

No not from their leaders no. From our news source which reach more and more Russians.

They try to prevent them from getting knowledge about the war.

Even the Russians bloggers are starting to write the truth about the war.

MarkusRussian people believe nothing any more they know what is happening, but they do not trust it, so they do nothing till that one moment in the chaos but that we and even the Russian people do not know when that will happen.

[Catfish]

I did not believe it at first. France 24 no less ..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dMcOzFBLFlo

[mapuc]

Fair enough, yes.

The latter is because a lot of them are "disenchanted" with the result. They begin to realize they are losing. It is not because they think that war is bad, or that Putin is a reckless dictator, also being a bad statesman and an idiot.
Make no mistake, it is just because they do not win.
No idea or care about losses, no idea about who started this, no idea about their own people, humanity or caring for anyone.
They can go to HELL.

I stand corrected and say a Russian Revolution is far away.

Came to think of the latest poll from Russia where more than 80% supported Putin in his 3 days special operation in Ukraine.
Of course can these numbers be trusted ??

I say the same-They can go to Hell Putin & Co

Markus

[Skybird]

^ Yes, and it surprises me (but I will of course not complain if the parliament in Ankara does not endlessly delay it).



https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66160319



But in a statement after the deal was announced, Nato said Sweden would actively support efforts to "reinvigorate Turkey's EU accession process" and this would include "modernisation of the EU-Türkiye customs union and visa liberalisation".



As I said earlier: erdoghan may aim farther in order to get what he wanted for sure: customes union and visa freedom.

[Dargo]

^ Yes, and it surprises me (but I will of course not complain if the parliament in Ankara does not endlessly delay it).



https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66160319





As I said earlier: erdoghan may aim farther in order to get what he wanted for sure: customes union and visa freedom.I do not know that EU membership is for real he did not want it for years now he expected the EU will give it so easy. We saw him in the past do many stuff not wordier of an EU member, he is not that stupid to think the EU will accept him without hard bargains and Greece will block this with many other members.

European and US officials were quick to signal that the two issues were not linked, but behind the scenes, it was also considered that this "doubling of the stakes" by Erdogan was a piece of bluff poker that did not necessarily mean that a compromise could not still be reached in Vilnius. According to an expert in Ankara, Erdogan's statement could also mean that he wants to return to a more pro-Western course.

[Skybird]

An earlier meeting between the heads of Turkey, Sweden and NATO ended without results.


The parliamnt in Ankara pracically does what Erdoghan wants. And it has not yet waved the Swedes through...


We do not know what Erdoghan has been given in secret. My guts just tells me he did not just fold his cards. Thats not him. He wanted to maximise his price: and suddenly he gives up...? No.


The F16s the US probaly now is delivering him, probably is not the complete price. And his economy is a mess. So I assume there is more to be revealed, regarding economics.

[Jimbuna]

An earlier meeting between the heads of Turkey, Sweden and NATO ended without results.


The parliamnt in Ankara pracically does what Erdoghan wants. And it has not yet waved the Swedes through...


We do not know what Erdoghan has been given in secret. My guts just tells me he did not just fold his cards. Thats not him. He wanted to maximise his price: and suddenly he gives up...? No.


The F16s the US probaly now is delivering him, probably is not the complete price. And his economy is a mess. So I assume there is more to be revealed, regarding economics.

Precisely :yep:

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GmQuZ9AR4jE

[tonschk]

NATO NATION ERUPTS AGAINST 'KILLER ZELENSKY'; BIG PROTEST IN BULGARIA

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IyoKtAkMF-0


https://www.hostpic.org/images/2307111633240350.png (https://www.hostpic.org/view.php?filename=2307111633240350.png)
https://www.hostpic.org/images/2307111624400338.png (https://www.hostpic.org/view.php?filename=2307111624400338.png)

[Skybird]

Bulgaria was one of the first - or even the first - countries delivering weapons to Ukraine via third countries.

Some days ago, the Bulgarian Parliament has adopted a statement in support of Ukraine's membership in NATO after peace has been restored on its territory. 157 MEPs from GERB-SDS, PP-DB, DPS and ITN voted in favour. 57 MPs from the BSP for Bulgaria and Vasrazhdane, an extremely pro-Russian extremist party, voted against.

A three-quarter majority.

[Catfish]

In May 2002 Putin said Ukraine was "entitled to decide on its own whether to join NATO" and that he did not see such a decision as one that would “cloud” Russian-Ukrainian relations.
:yep:

[Catfish]

"Take membership off the table for Ukraine, so the argument goes, and future wars will be prevented."

Nope. This argument has two flaws, one about history and one about Putin’s thinking.
Over the last thirty years, the salience of the issue has risen and fallen not primarily due to waves of NATO expansion, but instead as a result of waves of democratic expansion in Eurasia.

In a very clear pattern, Moscow’s complaints about the alliance spike after democratic breakthroughs.
While the tragic invasions and occupations of Georgia and Ukraine have secured Putin a de facto veto over their NATO aspirations, since the alliance would never admit a country under partial occupation by Russian forces, this fact undermines Putin’s claim that the current invasion is aimed at NATO membership.

He has already blocked NATO expansion for all intents and purposes, thereby revealing that he wants something far more significant in Ukraine today:
the end of democracy and the return of subjugation.

On February 24, in an hour-long, meandering rant explaining his decision to invade, he said so directly.

https://www.journalofdemocracy.org/articles/what-putin-fears-most/

[Skybird]

In May 2002 Putin said Ukraine was "entitled to decide on its own whether to join NATO" and that he did not see such a decision as one that would “cloud” Russian-Ukrainian relations.
:yep:
Was that before or after the MIR space station crashed and hit him right on the head?

[Skybird]

Frankfurter Rundschau:



(...)

With the new deal, which according to Stoltenberg builds on the agreement at the NATO summit in Madrid in June 2022, Sweden is one step closer to joining NATO. But nothing is in the bag yet, because first the accession must be ratified by the Turkish parliament. And it looks like Erdogan is keeping a back door open here. Shortly before leaving for Vilnius on Monday, he told journalists, "Without a decision from parliament, we can't do anything either."

He referred to statements from the United States with regard to the debate over the sale of F-16 fighter jets to Turkey. "What do they always tell us? 'Congress has to pass it.' If they have their Congress, then we have our Grand National Assembly," the Turkish president said. "As long as it is not passed by the parliament, we cannot just say we will do it," he clarified.

For many in Turkey, Erdogan's statement and his emphasis on parliament came as a surprise, as no such statement had been made at any time in Finland's case. Mind you, Erdogan's alliance retains a majority in the Turkish parliament. Behind the scenes, he could commit his alliance to oppose Swedish NATO membership in parliament. Moreover, if the parliament fails, he could justify the continued blockade more easily.
(...)

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K_75-ZF-EXU

[Jimbuna]

I can see similar events taking place in the future.

A Russian naval captain has been assassinated on his morning run after being hunted down using a fitness tracker app.

Stanislav Rzhitskiy was found with four bullet wounds in his back near the Olimp sports complex in Krasnodar, southern Russia, according to reports.

His death was said to be payback for a brutal Kalibr missile strike on the Ukrainian city of Vinnytsia nearly a year ago that he allegedly commanded. The submarine he controlled attacked the city several times last year and the deadliest strike killed 28 people.

Russian investigators believe Rzhitsky's running route was tracked by a jogging app he used and that the timing of the killing was linked to the upcoming first anniversary of the Kalibr attack on July 15.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/breaking-putin-s-submarine-captain-assassinated-on-run-as-killer-finds-him-on-fitness-tracker-app/ar-AA1dHDU9?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=2b40e422458e45b1841042890ff9879b&ei=11

[mapuc]

Zelenskyy is disappointed

NATO are not going to invite Ukraine to become a member.

Don't understand why he feel NATO has stabbed him in the back, he should know that a country in war or crisis can't become a member.

There's only two ways for Ukraine to be invited.
1. Get an agreement with Russia - Ceasefire.
2. Win the war.

Markus

[tonschk]

ROSEANNE VS PIERS ON THE VERY LARGE AMOUNTS OF NAZIS IN UKRAINE

https://www.bitchute.com/video/vvYv7BaxagDp/

https://www.hostpic.org/images/2307120401490338.png (https://www.hostpic.org/view.php?filename=2307120401490338.png)

[Skybird]

According to investigations by German RTL reporters, the trail around the sailing yacht involved in the Nordstream 2 blow-up leads to Russia. Persons in charge of the charter and hire have been located in Moscow - one woman was anything but taken with it when contacted and reacted with great hostility.

After it looked in the meantime as if Ukraine with its own commando was responsible for the blast, it now looks again more as if it was a Russian action that laid false tracks to make Ukraine responsible for the Russius blast. RTL says it is practically inconceivable that a ringleader of the attack could move unmolested and freely in Moscow itself if she had carried out the attack without instructions from the Russian government.

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nXjYOllGFOU

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3LgvK3zNbOk

[Exocet25fr]

when Ukrainian nationalists slaughtered Polish civilians during the Second World War. :D

https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-poland-mark-80th-anniversary-of-volhynia-massacre/a-66185178

[Jimbuna]

In the meantime Russia continues to carry out war crimes against civilians much like they did in Berlin back in 1945.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y8OAv2-Fkok

[Reece]

I shouldn't get so uptight but I hate that Nazi!! :Kaleun_Mad:

[Jimbuna]

I shouldn't get so uptight but I hate that Nazi!! :Kaleun_Mad:

His day of reckoning will come and the irony is it'll probably be from within his own ranks.

[Jimbuna]

The million dollar question right now 'Where is Yevgeny Prigozhin?'

Wagner mercenary group boss Yevgeny Prigozhin who led a botched rebellion, is likely dead or in jail, a former senior US military leader has said.

Moscow previously claimed Vladimir Putin met Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin five days after the mercenary chief led a rebellion in Russia, but retired General Robert Abrams said this was likely staged.

Mr Abrams, previously served as the commander of US Forces Korea, told ABC News: “My personal assessment is that I doubt we’ll see Prigozhin ever again publicly.

“I think he’ll either be put in hiding, or sent to prison, or dealt with some other way, but I doubt we’ll ever see him again.”

Asked if he thought Prigozhin was still alive, General Abrams said: “I personally don’t think he is, and if he is, he’s in a prison somewhere.”

Regarding the alleged meeting in Moscow, the General said: “I’d be surprised if we actually see proof of life that Putin met with Prigozhin, and I think it’s highly staged,” General Abrams said.

During the meeting Putin offered an “assessment” of Wagner’s actions on the battlefield in Ukraine and “of the events of June 24”. He also “listened to the explanations of the commanders and offered them options for further employment”, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov claimed.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/wagner-boss-yevgeny-prigozhin-likely-to-be-dead-after-meeting-with-vladimir-putin/ar-AA1dLPuW?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=e07a57839b6f4226ae7b276547199cbf&ei=42

[Skybird]

I expect there will be no easing of Russia's stance on Ukraine if Putin gets replaced. Any successor most likely will be a military or security/intel man, and these circles as far as they have a seat in Moscow all are in favour of the war, and are hostile to the West and believe seriously history betrayed them. If any of these comes to rule, he will need to consolidate hisr power - by acting especially brutal and ruthless to demonstrate that there is no easy joking with him.

Putin's sins will outlive him and continue to haunt Ukraine and the West long after his death. Russia wiull try to make the Ukraine uninhabitable, and crash its economy so that it cannot exist as a state.

The civil society in Russia is "worthless" in that most people, the overwhelming majority, just shrugs their shoulders and do not care as long as the state does not directly affect them. They are educated to bezhave in such a way to not attarct atgention by the state. You have to expect nothign from such a people. The opposition has always been dramatically overestimated by the West (wishful thinking), and now is in shambles, isolated and unorganised.

There will be no uprise by the people against the government, no matter what the government does in crimes and wars. People do not care.

Economically and financially, Russia can hold out the war FOR YEARS to come.

All that what I say is bad and unwelcomed. But there's no point in sugarcoating things.

[Dargo]

I expect there will be no easing of Russia's stance on Ukraine if Putin gets replaced. Any successor most likely will be a military or security/intel man, and these circles as far as they have a seat in Moscow all are in favour of the war, and are hostile to the West and believe seriously history betrayed them. If any of these comes to rule, he will need to consolidate hisr power - by acting especially brutal and ruthless to demonstrate that there is no easy joking with him.

Putin's sins will outlive him and continue to haunt Ukraine and the West long after his death. Russia wiull try to make the Ukraine uninhabitable, and crash its economy so that it cannot exist as a state.

The civil society in Russia is "worthless" in that most people, the overwhelming majority, just shrugs their shoulders and do not care as long as the state does not directly affect them. They are educated to bezhave in such a way to not attarct atgention by the state. You have to expect nothign from such a people. The opposition has always been dramatically overestimated by the West (wishful thinking), and now is in shambles, isolated and unorganised.

There will be no uprise by the people against the government, no matter what the government does in crimes and wars. People do not care.

Economically and financially, Russia can hold out the war FOR YEARS to come.

All that what I say is bad and unwelcomed. But there's no point in sugarcoating things.As it is, Russia this will not go as you think all you assume is based on information from the West we do not know the numbers or the people that going to be in power. Only thing I know is the history that every change in Russia has gone horrible wrong for Russia. There will be a point that Russia will explode than the factions gone begin the struggle for power who will win nobody knows, but it is gone cost allot with that going on they can not do a war because one of that faction(s) is the military, so troops will be brought back to Russia to prove the power that is gone give Ukraine the change to drive out the remaining force in occupied areas. And the fact how the Russians are morons in these kinda things they gone blow the whole Russia up if they can keep Russia itself they must be happy the other regions will be gone. Decayed regimes inevitably elevate leaders of stunning incompetence, corruption and imbecility, figures like Czar Nicholas II and Donald Trump. Even the elites, in the end, do not want to defend them.

Imperial powers are especially vulnerable and fragile they are not self-contained, but instead depended on the exploitation of resources and labor as well as on vast military machines that drained the state of resources. Add this war to it, Russia has lost massive resources in a case of power change those resources left will splinter because every region will take control to achieve power in this power struggle like any criminal they hate and mistrust each other so outcome is chaos.

[Skybird]

We will see. Usually your views on this topic are far more optimistic than mine. But so far they have not shown to be right. I am much more cautious in declaring Russia "dead". If I wpouöld go b y all the analysis of the past 18 monthsk, Put9n should have died severla death by now, died of sweverla diferent forms of cancer, the Russians hould be unable to fire missiles since many months, the economy should be collapsing anew every month, and their Rubel should have been dissapeared from the international market.



Es bringt nichts, sich die Dinge schönzureden.

[Dargo]

We will see. Usually your views on this topic are far more optimistic than mine. But so far they have not shown to be right. I am much more cautious in declaring Russia "dead". If I wpouöld go b y all the analysis of the past 18 monthsk, Put9n should have died severla death by now, died of sweverla diferent forms of cancer, the Russians hould be unable to fire missiles since many months, the economy should be collapsing anew every month, and their Rubel should have been dissapeared from the international market.



Es bringt nichts, sich die Dinge schönzureden.That Putin is ill is a decade old story Russian people talk about, but Russia was ruled by a person with terminal cancer in the past I do not believe those stories till I see the coffin. The missiles they fire are not the most guided ones anymore, but we do not know the exact numbers and their targets are not cause Ukraine will surrender, they only used to show Russia how well the plan worked out. Economies never collapse after month(s) there are even economies that survived decades (Cuba) but it will help in the long run Russia needs imports for his war production, so every ruble devaluation cost their economy dearly all bits help to defeat Russia.

Britain did not survive being pessimistic, but in the belief they could win. He will win whose army is animated by the same spirit throughout all its ranks.

[Skybird]

I am not pessimistic. I try to be realistic.


For some peopel the glass is always half full. For the others it is half empty. And then there are people like me - for us the glass is twice as big as it needs to be. Quite sober, eh?

[tonschk]

Russian Soldiers Flaunt 'Captured' American Bradley In Ukraine And Send 'Greetings To Zelensky

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xpTeVrtP9js

https://www.hostpic.org/images/2307130316470324.png (https://www.hostpic.org/view.php?filename=2307130316470324.png)

[tonschk]

NATO terrorists Vehicles Blown Up while walking into mine Trap

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SZf2U49zHrA

[mapuc]

Remember it's not the question whether the glass is half full or half empty. The question is: What's in the glass

I try to keep a positive attitude on the war.

Ukrainian win some and lose some battle.

Markus

[ET2SN]

Meanwhile,

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ERn9TG_P9Ts

:up:

Some things to keep in mind:

The best way to showcase your top-line weapons, troops, and tactics is to let the bad guys see how you use them in action. :yep: Meaning, its easy to figure out a defense when these systems are hitting your front lines. Its even better to capture some of them for some reverse engineering.

Making Ukraine a full member of NATO right now means that Article V has been invoked and central and eastern Europe are now involved in WWIII. :o This is probably not a big deal if you live somewhere that isn't close to central or eastern Europe. :O:

If NATO does nothing outside of the aid they already provide, Russia still gets weaker as time goes by. This isn't fair to Ukraine but it does mean that NATO winds up in a win-win situation by essentially doing nothing besides keeping the supply trains rolling. :yep: Russia may win some tactical battles but they lost any hope of a strategic victory the minute after they invaded. There is no kind of a storybook ending where Russia regains any trust from Europe. Even if they show footage of Putin hanging from a lamp post in Red Square and everyone in Russia sincerely apologizes to the rest of the world on CNN, the jig is up (at least for the next 50 years).
If you live in Russia and you miss all of the gun battles in the streets and play grounds and the assignations in your apartment building from back in the mid-90's, just be patient. They'll be back in full force over the next couple of years. :yep:

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=63XlNxQHenw

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-7Lhbx8XxxY

[Skybird]

This could have been written by me. The author says exactly the same.

https://www-focus-de.translate.goog/politik/ausland/gastbeitrag-von-gerhard-mangott-darum-ist-der-ueberfall-auf-die-ukraine-viel-mehr-als-nur-putins-krieg-ist_id_198794688.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp

[Skybird]

The Tagesspiegel writes:

In a failed advance in the Zaporizhzhya region in early June, Ukrainian troops left behind several Western tanks - some destroyed or damaged. The good news is that a majority of the 25 vehicles are said to have only minor damage, according to an open-source analyst who shared his findings on Twitter. These should be quickly repaired, according to the analyst's assessment.

On June 8, a Ukrainian tank column of the 47th Brigade was ambushed by Russia near the village of Mala Tokmachka. At the outset, analysts counted the loss of one 2A6 Leopard tank and four abandoned U.S. Bradley M2 infantry fighting vehicles - three of which were probably damaged in the attack.

In the meantime, the number has more than doubled: the business magazine "Forbes" counts about 25 tanks, combat vehicles and technical vehicles of Western production that were briefly lost in Zaporizhzhya. However, the recovery of the equipment had already begun at the beginning of July.

For "Forbes," this is a clear indication that the Ukrainian army has made progress in this area. Otherwise, it would not be possible to safely recover the vehicles.

"About three to four brads are unrecoverable. The rest have slight damage," now writes Twitter user "david D.". Where he got the information from is not known. An independent verification is not possible. However, the account belongs to a large number of OSINT analysts who get their information from freely available sources.

Moreover, the recovered Leopard tank and the other Bradley M2 infantry fighting vehicles would only need a repair on the track to be operational again. "And some paint," the account jokes. In its damage analysis, it refers to images recently posted by a pro-Russian Telegram channel.

Of the 186 Bradleys delivered according to U.S. figures, more than 17 percent have already been destroyed, damaged or left behind, according to the OSINT blog "Oryx." "Oryx" counts Ukrainian and Russian army losses, among others.

Just a few days after the attack, the OSINT Twitter account "Ukraine Weapons Tracker" posted a photo of a Bradley infantry fighting vehicle in the workshop. However, it is unclear whether the vehicle is one damaged in the Russian ambush. "The vehicle was hit by heavy artillery fire, but all crew members reportedly survived," the account writes.

Quickly after the Russian attack on the armored column became known, criticism was voiced against the commanders of the 47th Brigade "The officers who planned and ordered this attack must be dismissed," demanded former Italian soldier and military expert Thomas C. Theiner.

Theiner suggested that an "ambush of Russian attack helicopters and Russian anti-tank defenses" had decimated the column. The anti-tank forces had hidden in rows of trees, Theiner wrote on Twitter. In addition, the column - which was maneuvering through a minefield - had been "hit by drone-based artillery fire."

The Russian "Alligator" helicopter likely played an important role in this. The range of their on-board weapons allows them to fly attacks on advancing Ukrainian troops from Russian-occupied territory, often protecting them from air defense systems. A dilemma for Kiev's troops.

----------


Germany and Poland meanwhile still have not agreed on actually erecting that announced Leopard-repair-facility in Poland that they promised already many months ago.

[Exocet25fr]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ahR-oXQT3vc

[mapuc]

Which tells me Russia is on its way to lose to war-'cause now the dog threaten to bite where it is pressed up in the corner.

Markus

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_FOmFT9ufN0

[Exocet25fr]

Pretentious and Dangerous biden: Peace and Security in Europe....:haha:

[Jimbuna]

Not sure what your finding so funny but a great deal of the peace and security France enjoys today is due to the US and those who have led it.

[Skybird]

The Rheinmetall defence group says it has received a billion-euro order from the German armed forces for the supply of tank ammunition. An existing framework contract for ammunition deliveries worth up to €556 million from 2020 has been increased to a volume of around €4 billion.

After 17 months into the war! :o

[Exocet25fr]

And now: US Fiona Scott Morton appointed Chief Economist of EU.....:o :D

https://cepr.org/about/news/fiona-scott-morton-appointed-chief-economist-eus-directorate-general-competition

[ET2SN]

I wish these experts that use the term "decimation" would use it in the proper context. It sounds scary but decimation means a 10% loss rate and we are talking about large battles that take place during an invasion.

Haven't these authors ever played World Of Tanks? :O:

[August]

I wish these experts that use the term "decimation" would use it in the proper context. It sounds scary but decimation means a 10% loss rate and we are talking about large battles that take place during an invasion.

Haven't these authors ever played World Of Tanks? :O:


Well the word has come to mean more than just a punitive punishment inflicted upon 10% of a Roman military unit, which in any case would have not been called "decimation" but rather "decimatio" in Latin. :03:

The modern definition of decimation is a more amorphous "significant number of something" than a particular percentage.

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1XrUnCF1Sbw

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6rf05V4Q5sM

[Skybird]

We do not have first hand information, only what the media and the propaganda channels - if both are not the same... - are releasing.

Judging by these, I see the offensive in real danger of ultimately bogging down. It seesm as if territorial gains are anything but decisive, everywehre, and have come from a slow pace to a crawl. Modern mines, artillery delivered mines, top attack mines, Russian kamikaze drones, now apparent air superiority, intel drones, successful jamming by Russians and deliberate attacks on the small cleared pathways through minefields force the Ukrainains apparently to movement at snail speed, if anything in recent 7-10 days the speed of their advance seems to have dropped even further than to stay constant or become faster.

In other words, the planned attempt at aggressive manoeuvre warfare that would bring benefits to Ukraine is increasingly turning back into a stationary war of attrition again - and that favours the Russians. They have prepared their defence grounds, and they have prepared it well. Time enough they have had.

Things are not going well. Not even contact with the first Russian defence line while alrready having suffered substantial losses, that cannot be glossed over, even if you have to expect higher losses for the attacker.

And the Ukrainians have still not managed to penetrate even to the first line of defence (of three), let alone make a breakthrough in it. Anything they publicise in terms of successes doesn't really seem weighty to me. The victories that the Ukrainians have achieved are not decisive. The amount of the Ukrainian losses, on the other hand, is likely to be more significant and higher than Ukraine wants to make known.

No, I really don't think things are going well. Let's hope that the recently delivered cluster munitions for the artillery will make a difference. My scepticism has grown in the past 4 weeks.



In parts ther Germans have to be held repsonsible. Their endless hesitation caused delays in the equipping of the Ukrainian brigades that gave Russia the time to fortify and prepare its defences, more and more with every week and every month passing by.

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d0c5SlivmD4

[Exocet25fr]

https://www.agoravox.fr/IMG/jpg/F0YAMPcOKZelenskylost.jpg



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HNpO9ort2W4

[Dargo]

Large losses and a lack of reserve troops to replace tired soldiers at the front are likely to leave Russia's defences in Ukraine vulnerable, writes the US think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW). Ukraine is trying to exhaust the Russians with constant artillery shelling and small arms attacks. On the southern front, Russia's defences are further disrupted by the dismissal of General Ivan Popov, ISW expects. Popov was dismissed after criticising Russia's army leadership. The general commanded the 58th army, which is responsible for defending the front in Ukraine's Zaporizhzhya province. Although the impact of his departure will be "marginal", according to the think tank, his criticism shows the fragility of Russia's defences. In the coming weeks, Ukraine will try to take advantage of unrest within the Russian army leadership and fatigue among frontline soldiers.

Lieutenant general Oleg Tsokov is not the first general to die since the Russian invasion began. It is estimated that there are six to nine. The exact number is difficult to determine because the Russian army does not usually make statements about their deaths. The confirmation was therefore striking, as was Tsokov's rank. Not before did Ukraine encounter a general of his rank. He was a lieutenant general; so far only major generals have died. The question is how Ukraine always manages to successfully hit such targets. It is striking that Tsokov was so close to the front, within range of the Ukrainian army You would expect such a person to be further back, say in Rostov-on-Don.

Generals with this rank are not rare, believed to number hundreds in the Russian army. As a lieutenant general, Tsokov stood one rung higher than a major general. The number of Russian lieutenant generals is heading towards 60. Most casualties occurred early in the invasion, when generals had to move close to the front. The combat readiness of units was not always the same. Generals went to the front to encourage their troops. After that, no Russian generals died for months. Last month, that changed. Major General Sergei Gorkachev was presumably killed in a Ukrainian missile attack on a command centre on the southern front. Such attacks are part of the Ukrainian offensive, which began last month. Ukraine is really figuring out the patterns of key figures and how to target them. This is evident from the death of a commander in Krasnodar, Russia, who was shot dead while running. Ukraine traced his regular lap via the well-known sports app Strava.

In the place for which Lieutenant general Oleg Tsokov was responsible, the command temporarily falls away, which makes it difficult in the short term to get reserve troops in time to places where gaps threaten to fall in Russia's defences. You may assume he will be replaced quickly, but that does not happen overnight, a general gathers his own network around him, people he knows and trusts. Moreover, it is worse in Russia when a general falls away than in the West. A Russian general is personally responsible for the success of lower units. In the West, a sergeant can decide how to carry out an assignment, in the Russian army, orders are much more specific. In case of setbacks, they always have to report to their superiors for new orders. The loss of a general therefore hurts extra.

How Putin Cannibalizes the Russian Economy to Fund His War
Yale SOMÂ’s Jeffrey Sonnenfeld and Steven Tian write that the Russian leader is fueling battles in Ukraine by shaking down his own people and leveraging his country's future.

Nearly 18 months into the Russian invasion of Ukraine now, amidst last week’s failed coup attempt, battlefield setbacks, and global diplomatic condemnation, Putin is coming under increasing strain to finance his increasingly-expensive war—and there’s a history lesson for how this will all end.

Far from the prevailing narrative on how Putin funds his invasion, PutinÂ’s financial lifeline has his merciless cannibalization of Russian economic productivity. He has been burning the living room furniture to fuel his battles in Ukraine, but that is now starting to backfire amidst a deafening silence and dearth of public support. That is far from the prevailing narrative on how Putin funds his invasion. Ample western commentators posit that Putin is pulling in billions from trade to finance the invasion thanks to high commodity prices, weak western sanctions, and sanctions evasion.

But energy prices across both oil and natural gas are now cheaper today than before the invasion, as are grain, wheat, lumber, metals, and practically every commodity that Russia produces. Amidst lower commodity prices across the board, thanks in part to the effective G7 oil price cap, Russia is now barely breaking even on oil sales with unwanted Russian Urals oil trading at a persistent discount but continuing to flow in ample volumes – exactly as it was designed. In short, the world has now largely replaced Russian supplies so commodity exports are no boon to a desperate Russia right now.

It is often overlooked that Putin is funding his invasion of Ukraine not only through marginal commodity exports or trickles of sanctions evasion but through the cannibalization of RussiaÂ’s productive economy. As an extractive authoritarian dictator with state control over 70% of the economy, Putin will never really run out of money since he can always pull the authoritarian equivalent of finding money under the couch, or pull a schoolhouse bully act and shake down kids (i.e. oligarchs) for their lunch money at recess time.

Putin has levied draconian “windfall taxes” on basically anything that moves. Many thought last year’s record $1.25 trillion ruble windfall tax on Gazprom and certain other Russian state owned businesses was a one-time occurrence, but Putin has only doubled down and ordered more windfall taxes in the months since, raising trillions of rubles more from companies and oligarchs alike. Likewise, first Putin resorted to levying onerous taxes on both companies and people leaving Russia after the invasion before he dropped all pretense and just started indiscriminately seizing money and property instead.

Similarly, Putin has abandoned all pretense of responsible fiscal policy, running record budget deficits, printing record amounts of money out of thin air, forcing Russian banks and individuals to buy near-worthless Russian debt, and drawing down RussiaÂ’s hundreds of billions in sovereign wealth funds, mortgaging away RussiaÂ’s future. No wonder disenchanted elites such as oligarch Oleg Deripaska are reduced to complaining to the press while across Russia, labor strikes are taking place with increasing frequency in a throwback to 1917 amidst already disastrous labor shortages.

Some, like Deripaska, even argue that Putin’s shakedowns are hurting the Russian economy even worse than western sanctions – which are already causing entire sectors of the Russian economy to implode, as we’ve shown before. And on top of sanctions, with over 1,000 western companies leaving Russia practically overnight, already Russian consumers are hard-pressed to find erstwhile staples, ranging from consumer electronics to automobiles.

Amidst such undisguised plundering of the Russian economy, stripping it down for war toys, it is perhaps no surprise that PrigozhinÂ’s failed putsch this past weekend revealed no lost love for Putin domestically from the Russian populace and elites. After all, not only did military leaders and civilians alike passively wave columns of Wagnerites through checkpoint after checkpoint on the road from Rostov to Moscow without a shred of resistance; even PutinÂ’s own regional governors were lethargic in their response, and even now, a whopping 21 of them have yet to express any support for Putin. Ironically, the only group of Russians who rushed to PutinÂ’s defense with any genuine enthusiasm prior to Belarusian President LukashenkoÂ’s diplomatic intervention were brigades of Chechens who sped to Moscow and Rostov, led by PutinÂ’s longtime ally and newly-minted selfie-pal Ramzan Kadyrov.

There is a historical pattern here. Of the two major Russian revolutions over the past century, both were undergirded by debilitating economic woes caused partially by military overreach and struggles on the battlefield. After all, wars are never cheap: economic analysts estimate that sustaining its military efforts costs Russia at least $1 billion a day, and it surely didnÂ’t help that Putin sunk billions in not only the Wagner Group but also PrigozhinÂ’s other companies. Likewise, World War I drained Tsar Nicholas IIÂ’s coffers prior to his abdication in 1917, when Russia was wracked by over 100 labor strikes amidst widespread famine, exacerbated by both forced conscription as well as returning military veterans. And prior to the collapse of the Soviet Union, the escalating costs of the Cold War combined with low oil prices and severe recession undermined the Soviet economy from within. Losing wars seems to go hand-in-hand with economic morass and regime change in Russia.

For over a year, we have been saying that the Russian economy was imploding despite claims of Russia’s economic resilience. That resilience is nothing but a Potemkin façade, sustained not through genuine economic productivity but rather through shaking down the entire country for pennies to direct towards war.. Putin can continue to sustain his invasion of Ukraine this way, but in doing so, continues to rip off his own people. In avoiding outright economic collapse by mortgaging Russia’s future, he grows more unloved by his people and is thus increasingly weakened. Economic decay is never the only cause of regime collapse; but nor should it be ignored as a demonstrated potent force in bringing down tyrannical regime after tyrannical regime, especially amidst military overreach.

Historian Daniel GoldhagenÂ’s 1996 book HitlerÂ’s Willing Executioners reminds us that the evil of the Third Reich triumphed through the complicity of average Germans through their complacency. We now see RussiansÂ’ willing complacency with the murderous, autocratic Putin. https://insights.som.yale.edu/insights/how-putin-cannibalizes-the-russian-economy-to-fund-his-war

We do not have first hand information, only what the media and the propaganda channels - if both are not the same... - are releasing.

Judging by these, I see the offensive in real danger of ultimately bogging down. It seesm as if territorial gains are anything but decisive, everywehre, and have come from a slow pace to a crawl. Modern mines, artillery delivered mines, top attack mines, Russian kamikaze drones, now apparent air superiority, intel drones, successful jamming by Russians and deliberate attacks on the small cleared pathways through minefields force the Ukrainains apparently to movement at snail speed, if anything in recent 7-10 days the speed of their advance seems to have dropped even further than to stay constant or become faster.

In other words, the planned attempt at aggressive manoeuvre warfare that would bring benefits to Ukraine is increasingly turning back into a stationary war of attrition again - and that favours the Russians. They have prepared their defence grounds, and they have prepared it well. Time enough they have had.

Things are not going well. Not even contact with the first Russian defence line while alrready having suffered substantial losses, that cannot be glossed over, even if you have to expect higher losses for the attacker.

And the Ukrainians have still not managed to penetrate even to the first line of defence (of three), let alone make a breakthrough in it. Anything they publicise in terms of successes doesn't really seem weighty to me. The victories that the Ukrainians have achieved are not decisive. The amount of the Ukrainian losses, on the other hand, is likely to be more significant and higher than Ukraine wants to make known.

No, I really don't think things are going well. Let's hope that the recently delivered cluster munitions for the artillery will make a difference. My scepticism has grown in the past 4 weeks.



In parts ther Germans have to be held repsonsible. Their endless hesitation caused delays in the equipping of the Ukrainian brigades that gave Russia the time to fortify and prepare its defences, more and more with every week and every month passing by.If the Ukrainians aren't recapturing large parcels of territory now, it is because that is not their main aim. They are trying to weaken Russian forces first, to give a subsequent forward movement the best chance for success.

Bulgaria openly sends arms to Ukraine for first time
Bulgaria is to send Ukraine 100 armoured vehicles. This is the first time the country has openly offered arms support to Ukraine. Before this, Bulgarian arms supplies - consisting solely of ammunition - were delivered to Ukraine through third countries. The turn comes after a new government took office last month. Bulgarian politics experienced a turbulent period in recent years, with five elections in two years. About half of Bulgaria's population opposes military aid to Ukraine. In no EU country is that group as large as in Bulgaria.

New Defence Minister Todor Tagarev is worried about Russian influence in the country, he tells Politico. "The Russian ambassador (in Bulgaria) speaks with the same voice as some political parties and influential politicians - and that is not the voice of our allies," Tagarev said. It is therefore a big step today for Bulgaria to join the European Defence Agency (EDA), which helps countries procure munitions as efficiently and cheaply as possible. On neutral Ireland, all EU member states are members of the EDA. In Ukraine, the Bulgarian weapons are also very welcome, as the country has a large amount of Soviet-made weapons and ammunition

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hwbKcT88UZQ

The words 'Putin' and 'Negotiate' do not sit well together.

Putin told the columnist Andrei Kolesnikov that he met Prigozhin and 35 Wagner commanders at the Kremlin after the mutiny and sought to negotiate terms for the mercenary group’s continued participation in Russia’s war in Ukraine.

During the meeting, Putin said he offered Prigozhin the option to allow Wagner fighters to continue to serve in Ukraine under the leadership of their battlefield commander, Andrey Trochev.

“All of them could gather in one place and continue to serve,” Putin told Kolesnikov, who has covered the Kremlin leader for several decades. “And nothing would change for them. They would be led by the same person who had been their actual commander this entire time.”

The offer met with some support from the Wagner commanders, Putin said. “A lot of them nodded their heads when I said this. But Prigozhin, who was sitting in front of them and didn’t see [their reaction], said: ‘No, the guys won’t agree with that decision.’”
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/putin-says-he-tried-but-failed-to-oust-prigozhin-after-wagner-mutiny/ar-AA1dSbAX?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=7078efa1bf22439d818e7d42900d44bc&ei=8

[mapuc]

I guess it hasn't so much to do with strategy and fighting skills but also the mood the soldiers are in.

Here the Ukrainian soldiers are in a better mood than the Russian soldiers

Markus

[Dargo]

I guess it hasn't so much to do with strategy and fighting skills but also the mood the soldiers are in.

Here the Ukrainian soldiers are in a better mood than the Russian soldiers

MarkusThe Ukrainian soldiers have something to fight for their freedom the Russians (most are not even from the region of Russia) have nothing payment is bad if they want leave they have to bribe their commander basically they have to bribe him for all food, ammo, protection gear they are stuck at the front in miserable conditions. This is the normal in the Russian army, always was.

[Catfish]

https://www.agoravox.fr/IMG/jpg/F0YAMPcOKZelenskylost.jpg
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HNpO9ort2W4

Found this at political forum, by a uk citizen (it seems)

"The Liberals have said that Putin is the new Hitler. That Russia is the new Nazi Germany. That Russia must be destroyed. I've got be honest with you the Liberals don't really seem to be taking this seriously. In World War 2 We had conscription of men, food rationing, over 40% of our GDP was spent on war. In Britain people seem far more interested in getting huge inflation fueling pay rises and going on strike than in supporting Ukraine.

Ukraine is conscripting her men. In the West, the Liberals have declared this impossible. We simply don't have the numbers of scientific specialists, qualified to tell what the difference between a man and a woman is."

:D

[Skybird]

What people do not seem to see is that the time window for Ukraines offensive already is closing again. We are in mid july.

[Dargo]

What people do not seem to see is that the time window for Ukraines offensive already is closing again. We are in mid july.That is not a bad thing they kept brigades in reserve and with the new support they will have a greater force for the next offensive. Those reserves will threaten the Russians, in the meantime it will be forces to keep manning the whole front line, never knowing where Ukraine will strike.

[mapuc]

I think the offensive will come in the Kherson area-Right now the Ukrainian is trying to create a beachhead from where this offensive will take place.

The Enemy is weak in that area and they have increased the bombardment of important targets in that area.

Markus

[Dargo]

Grosberg: Ukrainian forces getting closer to significant success
Both the activities of Ukrainian forces and signs of the difficulties being experienced by Russian armed forces suggest that Ukrainian units can soon expect greater success in their counter-offensive, Colonel Margo Grosberg, commander of the Estonian Defense Forces Intelligence Center (Kaitseväe luurekeskus) said Friday.

Speaking at his regular Friday press briefing held at the Ministry of Defense in Tallinn, Col. Grosberg talked about the tactics used by Ukrainian forces to destroy the command posts and logistics centers of the Russian armed forces with precision strikes, the success in the areas bordering Bakhmut and the descriptions of the Russian general, which give an idea of ​​the end of the Russian reserves. "All this shows that the Ukrainians are close to success of a larger sort," Col. Grosberg said.

Ukrainian armed forces' current preparatory attacks are aimed at concentrating on Russian units in narrow sections, and finding weak points where breakthroughs can be made. To the same end, vital Russian army transport hubs and logistics points and command centers in the rear are under attack," he went on.

The colonel also discussed how Ukrainian units have been able to capture key areas to the north and south of the city of Bakhmut, giving them the ability direct artillery fire at the city, which itself is still in the hands of Russian troops, and to gain control of the roads leading into the city. This has caused resupply problems for Russian units located there, Grosberg said.

In addition, the presence of Russian airborne troops, who have been in Bakhmut since the spring and are therefore still tied up in the city and suffering losses without scope for withdrawing them, is also exerting a major impact. Considering airborne forces are generally the Russian military's elite, with a higher morale, aggression etc. than many other troops, their motivation will nonetheless eventually be sapped, Grosberg added. "There should be more success at some point," he added. On the southern front, in the region of Zaporizhzhia and Velyka Novosilka, Ukrainian units have increased their occupied zones and are destroying important targets in the region with precision strikes, Grosberg said.

He singled out the attack on the Berdyansk hotel this week, in which deputy commander of Russia's Southern Military District Lt. Gen. Oleg Tsokov was reportedly killed. Grosberg also highlighted the dismissal of General Ivan Popov, which was apparently precipitated by criticism Popov had for the Russian General Staff, the leaked recordings in which he outlined the situation of the 58th Army under his command.

According to Popov, units remain in the frontline for a very long period of time, but do not get replaced. If and when Ukrainian artillery hits them hard, his units then do not have the ability to respond, he said. "All this is demonstration of the fact that Russian reserves are running out, as units cannot be rotated from the front," Grosberg went on.

Grosberg also pointed out that in the northeastern direction, in the Svyatov and Kupyansk regions, Russia has been on the offensive the most and achieved some success, though is not yet close to any sort of tactical breakthrough. The purpose of the pressure there is to force Ukraine to withdraw its troops from the vicinity of Bakhmut and elsewhere where they have been successful, the colonel added.

Putin making moves to remove dubious officers
Grosberg also said that units from the notorious Wagner Group have been handing over their heavy weapons and small arms to Russian army units over the past week. Some of the Wagner personnel are still located in the Luhansk oblast, but are not taking part in military activities. At the same time, there are also indications that they have started to move towards Belarus as per a plea deal which allowed them to remove to that country following the failed coup last month.

Convoys of buses with Belarusian license plates have been seen in the Voronezh region, Grosberg added. As anticipated, there has been a purge at the Russian Ministry of Defense, by the Main Directorate of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation (GRU, the Russian military's foreign intelligence agency-ed.) and the armed forces, following the Wagner uprising: Thirteen senior officers have been detained and about 15 officers considered to have been involved in the uprising have been dismissed.

Grosberg cited, for example, the fact that Gen. Sergei Surovikin has been missing for three weeks, while the deputy minister of defense for logistics, Surovikin's deputy, and a GRU general have also been detained. https://news.err.ee/1609034381/grosberg-ukrainian-forces-getting-closer-to-significant-success

[Skybird]

That is not a bad thing they kept brigades in reserve and with the new support they will have a greater force for the next offensive. Those reserves will threaten the Russians, in the meantime it will be forces to keep manning the whole front line, never knowing where Ukraine will strike.
Reisner already said one week ago only four brigades - at that time - were still unengaged, and these had started to bring their artillery battallions forward by that time.

That means at that time two thirds of the attack force was already in engaged in battle and had suffered losses - but despite six weeks had not even made contatc with the Russian first defence line, not to mention: breaking through it. They currently still mess around with the outposts before the first line. Think of it!

The first defence line is not to hold up an attack, but just to delay it, slow it down, if possible: channel it into wanted kill zones. The most experienced forces the Russians have put into the THIRD line...

Sorry, but no, this thing is not going well for Ukraine. And the clock is ticking. The change of seasons will not stop to do Ukraine a favour.


Russia has established a week ago a new navy base and local navy headquarter - in Mariupol. You do not do that if you expect you cannot hold that ground, I would assume. Mariupol, that means the Asov Sea. Asov Sea, that may mean maritime supply lines.

I do not want to doom the offensive or claim they have no chance. All I say is that the operation is not going well and that my impression is it gets worse form week to week. What they have taken back so far, is not decisive. And I fear their losses are higher than we in the West expect.

My subjective view. I hope I am wrong.

[Dargo]

Reisner already said one week ago only four brigades - at that time - were still unengaged, and these had started to bring their artillery battallions forward by that time.

That means at that time two thirds of the attack force was already in engaged in battle and had suffered losses - but despite six weeks had not even made contatc with the Russian first defence line, not to mention: breaking through it. They currently still mess around with the outposts before the first line. Think of it!

The first defence line is not to hold up an attack, but just to delay it, slow it down, if possible: channel it into wanted kill zones. The most experienced forces the Russians have put into the THIRD line...

Sorry, but no, this thing is not going well for Ukraine. And the clock is ticking. The change of seasons will not stop to do Ukraine a favour.


Russia has established a week ago a new navy base and local navy headquarter - in Mariupol. You do not do that if you expect you cannot hold that ground, I would assume. Mariupol, that means the Asov Sea. Asov Sea, that may mean maritime supply lines.

I do not want to doom the offensive or claim they have no chance. All I say is that the operation is not going well and that my impression is it gets worse form week to week. What they have taken back so far, is not decisive. And I fear their losses are higher than we in the West expect.

My subjective view. I hope I am wrong.Mariupol is for longer a supply hub in Ukraine fire line it does not make the supply lines shorter, the Russians have the outer supply lines. Ukraine the inner they have the luck because of the shape of the front line that they have shorter supply lines. Reisner can not know how many brigades are deployed, certainly not make that public loose lips sink ships.

[Skybird]

I assume Reisners sources are better than mine or what is on youtube. He also has his sources as historian. So intel and academia come together.

[Skybird]

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Selenskyj has tempered expectations for his country's ongoing offensive. "We must understand very clearly - as clearly as possible - that Russian forces in our southern and eastern territories will do everything possible to stop our soldiers," Selenskyj said Friday in his evening video address. Therefore, one should be grateful for every kilometer one's troops advance and for every success in battle, he warned. The statement is indicative of the difficulties the Ukrainian military is facing in its offensive.

[Die Welt]

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UkRfO_mY8ks

[Jimbuna]

This must gave come as a great shock to many Russians when you consider the state propaganda they are constantly exposed to.

Apro-Ukranian group is thought to be behind a major hack of Russian state television this week. The hack meant that millions of ordinary Russians watched a Ukraine defence ministry video as they tuned into their usual TV programmes. The infiltration exposed the reality of the war in Ukraine, as the hack broadcast footage of attacks by Ukrainian forces on Russian troops.

The warzone clips also showed Ukrainian forces advancing on the battlefield.

This was then followed with a message in Ukrainian, accompanied by the crest of its defence ministry, warning: "The hour of reckoning has come."

Following the Ukrainian military footage, ballet clips of Swan Lake appeared on the screen.

This appears to be a historical Russian reference, as Swan Lake was played on a loop after the deaths of Soviet leaders Leonid Brezhnev, Yuri Andropov, and Konstantin Chernenko.

It was also broadcast on state television again during the attempted overthrow of Mikhail Gorbachev, which hastened the Soviet Union's collapse in 1991.

The sabotage hit mainstream state TV channels in multiple time zones across the Urals and Siberia.

Channel One, the biggest television station in Russia, as well as Zvezda, which is owned by the Russian defence ministry, were both affected.

Ren TV, a channel run by President Vladimir Putin's long-rumoured lover Alina Kabaeva, was also hacked.

This is not the first state television hack to hit Russia during the war in Ukraine.

A previous hack in June hit Krasnoyarsk and Tyumen regions in Siberia, plus Kursk and Kaliningrad in western Russia.

This sabotage saw television channels broadcast an 'emergency' broadcast from a 'deepfake' President Putin.

In the fake message, the tyrant appeared to impose martial law across the regions - while declaring a full-scale mass mobilisation in response to an "incursion" from Ukrainian forces.

Meanwhile, Sergey Lavrov, Russia's foreign affairs minister, has warned today that US and NATO satellites are creating risks of a "direct armed clash with Russia".

Mr Lavrov also warned of the potential "catastrophic consequences" of direct conflict.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/russians-told-hour-of-reckoning-has-come-as-tv-sabotage-exposes-country-s-brutal-losses/ar-AA1dS01c?ocid=mailsignout&pc=U591&cvid=ed48e4a5f0fc469ea74a4ff16b66a612&ei=18

[Exocet25fr]

We havn't the same info here..., today, French radio media speaks about a strong Russian resistance......contrary to the ukrainian videos updates..............!. Don't count your chickens before they're hatched !

[Dargo]

Girkin says Ukraine has a chance to break through the occupiers' defence in Zaporizhzhia due to a lack of equipped and trained reserves for Russia. He revealed this in an hour-long livestream. The excerpt from a 10-minute intro is below, while the 2-minute video is a short snippet from it.

"The summer battle continues where the enemy is now not trying to break through but push through our frontline and “starve it out”.

The enemy continues applying main efforts in the Zaporizhzhia frontline, and the second area where he is transferring reserves, including those previously unused, is Bakhmut. The enemy is trying to achieve a result wherever possible, without abandoning the plans to break the Zaporizhzhia front.

After failures of attacks using concentrated columns, since columns like that ended up vulnerable to our artillery and aviation, the enemy moved to the tactic of a complete mixing with the ground of our units facing him. The enemy has a lot of shells, he’s not counting high-precision missiles.

Due to this, the enemy is trying to destroy, and completely knock out the units facing him in battle. The enemy is trying to avoid mass attacks as he made sure that breakthrough doesn’t depend on the number of vehicles, whether 4 or 40, thrown into battle, only the number of burned vehicles does.

Thus, offensive actions are led by fairly small assault groups with the support of several armoured vehicles, and all weapon systems used to destroy them are located by all types of enemy reconnaissances and then struck with artillery and high-precision missiles.

[…]

The enemy has the ability to withdraw weathered formations for rest and bring up fresh ones to continue the battle. But we have the same units fighting on the front - yes, they fight in defence, but the commanders who are continuously taking part in combat don’t feel much better from this.

It is a similar situation that led to the dismissal of the commander of the 58th Army, General Popov, who put forward an issue that existing personnel and equipment are not enough to carry out the rotation and give the troops at least some semblance of rest. And there are no reserves to bring them to a fully capable state.

[...]

I will not be revealing a military secret - the enemy knows the situation very well, unfortunately. But even in the secondary directions, the staffing of our forces again does not exceed 70%. In areas of the most fierce battles, it is significantly less.

Of course, it does not compare to the situation at the end of last summer/early autumn, when 20% staffing of units was considered normal, but our forces are taking losses continuously, while the stream of reinforcements and reservists from the rear has died down.

This means that if urgent measures are not taken, the enemy, unfortunately, has a chance to gnaw through our defence in Zaporizhzhia. And it will be then very difficult to stop him, and no Surovikin’s line which is still in a pretty deep rear will stop the enemy if it’s not taken by trained, properly equipped, and experienced troops.

If these troops die in the field, there will be no one to stop the enemy. This is the main question now: will the enemy be able to gnaw through our defence in 2-3 weeks, exchanging his soldiers for ours, or not, and will exhaust himself earlier.

[…]

We’re observing. Unfortuantely, we as the Angry Patriots’ Club are unable to do anything in this situation. Moreover, I understand the emotions of our Head of General Staff, the commander of the operation Gerasimov, when “some” army commander makes demands about the rotation of units.

Gerasimov does not have prepared and equipped reserves. Simply does not. All he has is already on the frontline, at the very least in tactical reserves. Transferring from other areas means weakening them. But transferring poorly trained mobilised units who are, let’s say, covering the “old regions” of Russia, is not a solution. These units have no experience, no vehicles, no good commanders, they will be simply smashed by the enemy and no one will be able to do anything about it."" https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1680134950907965441

[Dargo]

I assume Reisners sources are better than mine or what is on youtube. He also has his sources as historian. So intel and academia come together.Do not think his resources are that better. Mart de Kruif lieutenant general in the Royal Netherlands Army or Peter van Uhm both Commanders of the Dutch Armed Forces will never disclose this strategic information. Both have served or led in NATO foreign operations. They explain how this war works and analyze what is happening, but will never release this sensitive information.

[mapuc]

According to the news here
The Ukrainian have success in the southern part of the country.

This made me remember my last comment about their upcoming offensive
Which I believe will come in the Kherson area.

Markus

[Dargo]

According to the news here
The Ukrainian have success in the southern part of the country.

This made me remember my last comment about their upcoming offensive
Which I believe will come in the Kherson area.

MarkusThere are reports that near Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine forces having surged and liberated a chunk of the Russian trench line if this is true this is pretty significant when you control this area and this entire trench line.

[mapuc]

Taking the news I read and hear I say the Russian morale seems to be down the drain.

However they put up a fight or try to from the trenches where they are dug down.

Almost every of my FB friends say Ukraine can't win this.

Hope they are wrong. I support Ukraine and put my trust in that they will win this with the help from the Westen countries(NATO)

Someone wrote here- Times is on Putin side.

Maybe it's the other way around.

Markus

[Jimbuna]

Not as popular as one might want to believe.

Zelensky blocked from attending EU summit - after nation enjoys £7.4bn trade with Russia
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/zelensky-blocked-from-attending-eu-summit-after-nation-enjoys-7-4bn-trade-with-russia/ar-AA1dTDWk?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=c025d4bbb0624d59b6e1cb10129fbfff&ei=9

[Skybird]

https://www-focus-de.translate.goog/politik/ausland/militaerexperte-gressel-zur-ukraine-offensive-mit-groesseren-fortschritten-ist-erst-im-august-zu-rechnen_id_199080703.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp


Damn mines.
And while the Russian escalate their annihilation of Ukrainians in occupied territories, the West puts the foot on the break.


I predict that a tiring of Western puplic's motivation will become significant over this winter. And potlicians will think they must take that into account if the want to get re-elected...


Mar5tkus, the potential resrves on Russia are much bigger than that of Ukraine, and tueor potential poolö from which to draft recruits is also much bigger. Worse, Ukrian soldiers od not get much breaks anymore, are exhausted , and different to Russia they have no more young men who havwe not yet been drafted. Russia ruzns wear priduction, the West keeps a foot on the break with supplies. I also wonder whetehr the leosses they had with Wetsenr equipment maybe also have been caused by thgeir unfamiliarity with it, by which i mean that many Ukrianians formaitosn still run not by military doctrin of combioaned arms in fast and agile mobile warfare, biut Sowvjet doctrine, making the advanatages of Wetsenr material obsolote and wastign it in a kind of manouvering that does neutrlaise its advanatges. The diea that Ukraine can drive the Russians out in a fight man veruss man, was imho unrealistic from beginning on, they can only hope to make staying in Ukraine so miserable for Russian troops that they wnat to pull oput. Which is difficult if you have your own army in your rear telling you it will shoot you dead if you make a step backwards.



Wars get decided by numbers, not by "Wünsche-wünschen".



The American supply is not forever. The event about passing the new defence budget and the attempots by Republicans to block it if iut includes further ukrainian help, are no sign of optimism for the future. Kyiv's worries have become more numerous, not less.



If the Ukraine does not break through the first defence line of the Russians somewhere in the south (I do not care that much for territory in Bakhmut, what counts much more is territory bringing them closer to the coast, they must interdict Crimea) and within say the next 6 weeks or so, then I think its over for them for this year. And I have doubts, big doubts, they will be helped to form another 12 attack brigades for next year.



Its so very much about those damn mine. The Russian seem to mine not just belts and behind them free groudn again, but seem to mine EVWERYTHING, every single free squaremeter everywhere, so to speak.



Well, thats how I would do it, too. Mines (and drones) are faster and easier to produce in large quantity, than platforms and vehicles. I think in the West the relevance of mines has been underestimated.

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9nPetpA5Nr8

[August]

I though the Hungarians were also blocking it. I wonder what did they get out of the deal?

[Jimbuna]

I though the Hungarians were also blocking it. I wonder what did they get out of the deal?

I can't honestly say but it will all come out in the wash no doubt.

[Dargo]

https://www-focus-de.translate.goog/politik/ausland/militaerexperte-gressel-zur-ukraine-offensive-mit-groesseren-fortschritten-ist-erst-im-august-zu-rechnen_id_199080703.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp


Damn mines.
And while the Russian escalate their annihilation of Ukrainians in occupied territories, the West puts the foot on the break.


I predict that a tiring of Western puplic's motivation will become significant over this winter. And potlicians will think they must take that into account if the want to get re-elected...


Mar5tkus, the potential resrves on Russia are much bigger than that of Ukraine, and tueor potential poolö from which to draft recruits is also much bigger. Worse, Ukrian soldiers od not get much breaks anymore, are exhausted , and different to Russia they have no more young men who havwe not yet been drafted. Russia ruzns wear priduction, the West keeps a foot on the break with supplies. I also wonder whetehr the leosses they had with Wetsenr equipment maybe also have been caused by thgeir unfamiliarity with it, by which i mean that many Ukrianians formaitosn still run not by military doctrin of combioaned arms in fast and agile mobile warfare, biut Sowvjet doctrine, making the advanatages of Wetsenr material obsolote and wastign it in a kind of manouvering that does neutrlaise its advanatges. The diea that Ukraine can drive the Russians out in a fight man veruss man, was imho unrealistic from beginning on, they can only hope to make staying in Ukraine so miserable for Russian troops that they wnat to pull oput. Which is difficult if you have your own army in your rear telling you it will shoot you dead if you make a step backwards.



Wars get decided by numbers, not by "Wünsche-wünschen".



The American supply is not forever. The event about passing the new defence budget and the attempots by Republicans to block it if iut includes further ukrainian help, are no sign of optimism for the future. Kyiv's worries have become more numerous, not less.



If the Ukraine does not break through the first defence line of the Russians somewhere in the south (I do not care that much for territory in Bakhmut, what counts much more is territory bringing them closer to the coast, they must interdict Crimea) and within say the next 6 weeks or so, then I think its over for them for this year. And I have doubts, big doubts, they will be helped to form another 12 attack brigades for next year.



Its so very much about those damn mine. The Russian seem to mine not just belts and behind them free groudn again, but seem to mine EVWERYTHING, every single free squaremeter everywhere, so to speak.



Well, thats how I would do it, too. Mines (and drones) are faster and easier to produce in large quantity, than platforms and vehicles. I think in the West the relevance of mines has been underestimated.Without air cover, the option of tank warfare is not open to Ukraine, which is why the slowness of the counteroffensive is being misunderstood there is also the scale of Russia’s defences, much improved since Kharkiv, protecting miles of minefields, tank traps and fortified, artillery-protected defensive positions to the rear. At present, the Ukrainian tanks and armoured vehicles must move slowly and probe the whole length of the front for weaknesses, mile by mile. That makes it all the more akin to the pre-tank era of the First World War’s western front. The armour forms breaching groups to bombard Russian front lines and force them to retreat, with the infantry then following up to occupy those lines. “We shell their lines and force them to fall back, and our infantry take over their trenches,” the Ukrainians say. “Then the Russians bombard the same trenches, and it’s our infantry’s turn to fall back.”

[mapuc]

Does Russia have full air superiority over Ukraine ?

Markus

[Dargo]

Does Russia have full air superiority over Ukraine ?

MarkusThey could but for some reason they do not use they are afraid of the Ukraine anti-air defense, having many planes does not mean they are operational and there is maybe the lack of good trained pilots. This goes for the rest of their army they could have the personnel, but they need training like all that material needs to be made operational and need working ammunition you can have it all on paper that does not say it can be used on the battleground. This means excellent leadership that need to organize and execute this the Russian army is not known of good leadership it is corrupt they are more busy with enriching themselves than take care of their soldiers.

[Skybird]

Does Russia have full air superiority over Ukraine ?

Markus
In reach of the front, yes. They can also effectively suppress the limited air attack attempts by Ukraine's air force, sicne the Russian fighters have superior radar and weapon range over the ukrainian Mig-29. Or better, the ukrainian Mig-29s do not have the legs and arms and eyes to engage the attacking Russiang fighters.

Any Russian CAS - fixed wing or helo - firing from outside manpad's range also is untouchable for Ukrainians. The medium range air defences given to Ukraine are almost completely used to defend the cities. Thats why the Russians keep firing at the cities: to keep these defences where they are.


Its worth to recall that by pre-war doctrine Russian ground forces are/were extremely saturated with anti-tank and anti-air missiles. Their ATGM load was much higher than that of any Western army. On paper at least.

[Dargo]

In reach of the front, yes. They can also effectively suppress the limited air attack attempts by Ukraine's air force, sicne the Russian fighters have superior radar and weapon range over the ukrainian Mig-29. Or better, the ukrainian Mig-29s do not have the legs and arms and eyes to engage the attacking Russiang fighters.



Any Russian CAS - fixed wing or helo - firing from outside manpad's range also is untouchable for Ukrainians. The medium range air defences given to Ukraine are almost completely used to defend the cities. Thats why the Russians keep firing at the cities: to keep these defences where they are.Russians does not have full air superiority, else they would use(d) it to target Ukraine forces on and behind the front every modern Western army would first bombard the front and behind before sending troops to attack. In the gulf wars and Iraq war, first they send in the planes and cruise missiles for weeks to soften the enemy.

[Skybird]

They have, at the front. Fixed wing and gunships attack frontlines and columns from beyond the target's counterfire range. Thats one of the three big problems Kyiv has: loitering munitions, very modern mines, and that the balance in the air war has shifted in Russia's favour. Russia even has begun, since longer already, to re-mine the small passages the Ukrainians had de-mined (via artillery-delivered mines).


If the text I linked toa couple of posts above is right, then they even mine the areas behind the assumed mine belts. The mine the whole damn place, not just obstacles and belts.



Cluster amuntions will not help Ukrianians to advance either, they cnanot use them to bomb areas they plan toa dvance thorugh, due to the duds. They indeed cna onyl use the couster ammunitions to interdict Russian C3I and logstics, and fortifications they do not plan to approach nearby. I think the media paint a wrong picture there.

[Catfish]

[...] .. they even mine the areas behind the assumed mine belts. The mine the whole damn place, not just obstacles and belts.
Which is why NATO should get its thing together and make Russia pay. How long does the world want to sit back and just watch.

[mapuc]

Does this weapon exist ?

I'm talking about a mobile SAM system who can fire AMRAAMS 120 D.

Thinking on a system who can be pulled by a truck or tanks.

Using this at the front to shoot down these KA 52, SU25 and other Russian fighter jet.

Markus

[Dargo]

Does this weapon exist ?

I'm talking about a mobile SAM system who can fire AMRAAMS 120 D.

Thinking on a system who can be pulled by a truck or tanks.

Using this at the front to shoot down these KA 52, SU25 and other Russian fighter jet.

MarkusA more recent version is the High Mobility Launcher for the NASAMS, made in cooperation with Raytheon (Kongsberg Defence & Aerospace was already a subcontractor on the SLAMRAAM system), where the launch-vehicle is a Humvee (M1152A1 HMMWV), containing four AMRAAMs and two optional AIM-9X Sidewinder missiles. https://www.kongsberg.com/newsandmedia/news-archive/2013/new-capability-in-the-nasams-air-defence-system/

[mapuc]

A more recent version is the High Mobility Launcher for the NASAMS, made in cooperation with Raytheon (Kongsberg Defence & Aerospace was already a subcontractor on the SLAMRAAM system), where the launch-vehicle is a Humvee (M1152A1 HMMWV), containing four AMRAAMs and two optional AIM-9X Sidewinder missiles. https://www.kongsberg.com/newsandmedia/news-archive/2013/new-capability-in-the-nasams-air-defence-system/

They should start to send a lot of these Humvees to Ukraine.

Markus

[Dargo]

Russia's air force 'remains largely intact,' but more jets won't fix all its problems in Ukraine, NATO commanders say
After 16 months of fighting in Ukraine, Russia's military still has nearly all of its combat aircraft, but neither Russian nor Ukrainian aircraft can control the air, the Royal Air Force's top general said Thursday. Jets and helicopters have not disappeared from over Ukraine, but thickets of air-defense systems make the airspace inhospitable. And even though Russia has a vastly larger air force, other issues may keep it from operating effectively, according to two NATO air commanders. In a speech at the Global Air & Space Chiefs' Conference in London on Thursday, Air Chief Marshal Rich Knighton, chief of the British air staff, said Russia's land force is now "weaker," having lost more than two-thirds of its tanks, "but the air force remains largely intact." Knighton displayed graphics depicting both side's losses, based on assessments by British Defence Intelligence and open-source tracking website Oryx. One graphic said Russia has taken over 220,000 casualties, including 176 military pilots, and lost 162 air-defense systems. A second graphic said Russia's air force retains 96% of its 2,021 fixed-wing aircraft and 90% of its 899 helicopters, with losses of 86 planes and 90 helicopters.

The second graphic noted heavier losses for Ukraine's air force: 68 fixed-wing aircraft, leaving 78% of its 314-plane fleet, and 31 helicopters, or 48% of its 59 helicopters. Ukraine now has 15 combat aircraft for every 100 that Russia has, the graphic said. Those numbers differ slightly from previous estimates. A US intelligence document leaked online this spring listed Russian losses at 72 fighter jets and fighter-bombers and 81 helicopters and Ukrainian losses at 60 fighters and fighter-bombers and 32 helicopters. The leaked document noted that officials had "low confidence" in attrition estimates due to "information gaps," operational security and information operations, and bias in information shared by Ukraine. Knighton said neither Russia nor Ukraine have been able to gain air superiority, "but the advantage is with defense" and the force on offense "faces a massive challenge without air superiority and without being able to strike the adversary in the deep." That echoes comments of numerous US and NATO officials, who have said that effective air-defense networks on both sides prevent both Ukraine and Russia from achieving air superiority and launching effective air attacks on front line or rear-area targets.

Had Russia's air force been able to control the skies when it attacked in February 2022, "it probably would have been a three- or a 10-day war," Gen. James Hecker, commander of US Air Forces in Europe and of NATO's Allied Air Command, said on a June 29 episode of the War on the Rocks podcast. "All the equipment that the 45 nations have offered Ukraine and trucked in would never have gotten there if Russia had air superiority," Hecker said. "They would have had close air support aircraft right on the border of Poland and Romania, over the lines of communications, and as soon as it crossed the border it would have been done." Both sides have effective air-defense networks that are countering the other's operations, added Hecker, who said in March that Ukraine had lost more than 60 aircraft and Russia more than 70. Ukraine now has "a very, very sophisticated, robust, resilient, integrated air- and missile-defense system, as does Russia, so what you're seeing is Russia can't fly their airplanes deep into Ukraine, because they get shot down," Hecker said. "Likewise, Ukraine can't fly theirs into Russia because of that same reason." Aircraft from both sides are still active, however. Airstrikes were part of Ukraine's preparation for the counteroffensive it launched in June. While Russia's air force hasn't brought most of its airpower to bear, its aircraft continue to strike Ukrainian positions and there are signs it is tinkering with new ways to employ them, though often from the safety of Russian-held territory.

"We've been seeing them do experimentations with different types of rockets that they're able to launch from slightly farther back on their side," Dara Massicot, an expert on the Russian military at the Rand Corporation think tank, said on a podcast in April, referring to Russian aviation activity near Bakhmut and Kherson. Massicot and others say Russia's air force could still exploit its numerical advantage if Ukraine's air-defenses network falters, though other factors could inhibit Russian air operations going forward. Its losses have likely taken a heavy toll on its relatively small cadre of skilled pilots, and Western sanctions could limit its ability to repair and build jets. Hecker and his deputy, British Air Marshal Johnny Stringer, also said that despite some recent improvements, issues with training, targeting, and decision-making would likely impede the Russian air force's performance. "The Russians have recapitalized a fair amount of their tactical air force, and they've done a lot on the weapons front as well. But if you don't address all the lines of development," Stringer said on the War on the Rocks podcast, "stand by to have some flashy things that are not capable in the way that perhaps you expected when you were writing the check." Russian strikes on front-line targets still mostly consist of missiles, bombs, and rockets being "lobbed in" with "very, very little accuracy," Stringer said. "That is not the hallmark of a top-tier air force, and to be honest, although we are probably seeing some improvements — and I don't really want to get too drawn on that — they have a long way to go." https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-air-force-largely-intact-has-operational-problems-in-ukraine-2023-7?r=US&IR=T

[Catfish]

Three soldiers, driver, loader, gunner, in a small mobile vehicle with TOWs and manpads. Spoils russian doctrine anytime.

[Dargo]

The U.S. government is set to effectively buy back recently retired Hawk surface-to-air missile systems from Taiwan, which will then be transferred to the Ukrainian armed forces, according to Taiwanese media outlets. The War Zone has previously noted that sending Taiwan's Hawks to Ukraine would make good sense given that the latter country has a somewhat dire need for additional air and missile defense capacity. The U.S. military and the Spanish government have previously announced plans to deliver Hawk systems and stocks of MIM-23 missiles for them to Ukraine. https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/taiwans-retired-hawk-sams-headed-to-ukraine-report

MIM-23 Hawk (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MIM-23_Hawk)

[tonschk]

https://www.hostpic.org/images/2307160603440293.png (https://www.hostpic.org/view.php?filename=2307160603440293.png)
https://www.hostpic.org/images/2307162046130358.png (https://www.hostpic.org/view.php?filename=2307162046130358.png)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_NYpGSZzonA

[Catfish]

^ You mean like Putin was snubbed at the G8 summits? Must have somehow broken his ego when he starts a war of aggression just because of that.
But first this HT "report" is a scam, and second I take it Zelenky is a lot tougher.
He staid in Kyyiv during the russian assault, while Putin ran away several times, from the Kremlin drone attack to Prigozhin marching towards Moscow.

India buys millions of tons of oil from Russia, it only gets its military hardware from them.. what do you expect the "Hindustan Times" to write? Seems they try to please Russia since relations are deteriorating:

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/heres-what-to-know-about-indias-ties-with-russia

[Skybird]

Why no one can end the Ukraine war. Excellent comment and analysis.

https://unherd.com/2023/07/why-no-one-can-end-the-ukraine-war/


Professor Edward Luttwak is a strategist and historian known for his works on grand strategy, geoeconomics, military history, and international relations.

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h0Fsqu4-UG8

[Skybird]

The NYT gets quoted with remarks on that the Ukrainians have so far pushed 8 of 95 km until the coast of the Asov Sea. Its further said that in the mminent future the Ukrianaisn managed to drop their own losses in vehicles and heavy equipment to 10% (whate ver timnefreame that covers). That obviously means that before, their losses were signficantly above 10%.

I would not be surprised if somebody comes up and shows that they have so far lost in total a quarter of their attack force. Maybe even more.

Their loss ratio is what concerns me most.


87 km to go.

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RujioeT1Juo

[mapuc]

Now they get MIM-23 HAWK from USA, to be used at the frontline.
Range about 40 km which mean they can shoot down these KA 52 helicopters before they come into firerange to fire their anti-tank missiles, who should have a range about 30 km.

If not take them down then keep these KA 52 on the ground.

Markus

[tonschk]

UKRAINIAN POW - THERE WAS NO FOOD SUPPLIES OR EVACUATION

https://www.bitchute.com/video/eUIYF1Lz5V9Z/

https://www.hostpic.org/images/2307161945440343.png (https://www.hostpic.org/view.php?filename=2307161945440343.png)

[tonschk]

Russian Airstrike Annihilates Ukraine's Drone Control Centre, Starlink Station In Kherson

https://www.hostpic.org/images/2307162018220363.png (https://www.hostpic.org/view.php?filename=2307162018220363.png)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_w-2FVot64c

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DOQ2bUv1EcE

[Dargo]

The NYT gets quoted with remarks on that the Ukrainians have so far pushed 8 of 95 km until the coast of the Asov Sea. Its further said that in the mminent future the Ukrianaisn managed to drop their own losses in vehicles and heavy equipment to 10% (whate ver timnefreame that covers). That obviously means that before, their losses were signficantly above 10%.

I would not be surprised if somebody comes up and shows that they have so far lost in total a quarter of their attack force. Maybe even more.

Their loss ratio is what concerns me most.


87 km to go.Russia’s average assault time to capture a town was like 55 days in their offensive last summer. It took Russia 10 months to move 13 km and Ukraine moving 10 km in 30 days.Just yesterday the New York Times jumped back into this narrative with an article about how Ukraine’s offensive had slowed after the initial losses. Once again it focussed on what happened in the opening 10 days, when it was shown what should have come as no suprise—that vehicles are very vulnerable on the battlefield. This article even recycled the one picture of a large group of Ukrainian vehicles disabled together that Russian sources endlessly reuse—even though it is a month old. All I will say about this is that the Ukrainian offensive has not ‘slowed’. The risky vehicle assaults have been dialled down and the campaign to destroy Russian artillery, ammunition and command and control has been accelerated. Indeed this campaign seems to be getting major Ukrainians resources, and is starting to show some results. Ukrainian counter-battery fire (amongst other things) seems to be taking an extremely heavy toll of Russian artillery and Russian capabilities are degrading.

At the same time, Ukrainians are making small, but sensible advances, both around Bakhmut and then as reported last night, in the central front. Crucially—they are fighting these campaigns while keeping their own losses down. This is where the Ukraine is slow narrative makes little sense. Ukraine is being smart, not slow. As the New York Times article showed, at first Ukrainian vehicle losses were high, maybe 20% in the first two weeks, but then they dropped by half. This is important. Though the Ukrainians are fighting this counteroffensive and are taking a heavy toll on Russian artillery, they have reduced their own losses. This is a sign of success not failure. So, please dont obsess about lines on the map now—what Ukraine is doing, as Ive been saying for months, is really hard. It will take time. Lets see where we are nearer the end of the summer. My strong guess is that the Ukrainian counteroffensive will not be seen as a failure.
https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/weekend-update37?sd=pf

Phillips P. OBrien
Professor of Strategic Studies, University of St Andrews - Scotland, Author: How the War was Won, and Second Most Powerful Man in the World. Editor in Chief, War in History

[mapuc]

I have been searching on YT trying to find same video as posted here on this page.

Here this POW is from Ukraine. The video I try to find he is a Russian POW.

I could be wrong I'm pretty sure I have seen same video some month ago, where the situation was the other way around.

Markus

[Jimbuna]

I have been searching on YT trying to find same video as posted here on this page.

Here this POW is from Ukraine. The video I try to find he is a Russian POW.

I could be wrong I'm pretty sure I have seen same video some month ago, where the situation was the other way around.

Markus

Markus, to be brutally honest and frank with you....much depends on the sympathies of the person posting.

[Skybird]

Russia’s average assault time to capture a town was like 55 days in their offensive last summer. It took Russia 10 months to move 13 km and Ukraine moving 10 km in 30 days.
So what? Both events are not causally comparable.

And btw, if Ukraine continues to move at that pace, they will need another 8-9 months to reach the coast. Its just that their offensove cannot hold its breath that long. Nor can its soldiers. At the current rate, there will be no soldiers form ther attack brigades left in 8-9 months.

Okay, black humour off.

What counts is the total remaining strength of Ukraine and the current loss ratio. The rest is mathematics. Industrial war IS mathematics. Russia can afford high losses, Ukraine not so well. They feel the many lacks already now.

They need a decisive breakthrough within the next 4-6 weeks, I say. If by then they still linger around with only the outpost line before the first defence line, a new round of fixed trench warfare will begin, favouring Russia.

-----------

I hope that Putin stays wehre he is, and stay salive. If he goes away in any way, the risk is that he will be replaced with somebody as brutal - but of more military competence. The last thing Ukraine needs is a competent military leader in the Kremlin, a new Shukov for example.

[August]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U4olUtjDGyc

[Catfish]

Russian airborne division threatens to revolt if Teplinsky is removed from his post.

https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1680472872542773248

[Jimbuna]

Russian airborne division threatens to revolt if Teplinsky is removed from his post.

https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1680472872542773248

:yeah:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pp1v3fCevGg

[Dargo]

So what? Both events are not causally comparable.

And btw, if Ukraine continues to move at that pace, they will need another 8-9 months to reach the coast. Its just that their offensove cannot hold its breath that long. Nor can its soldiers. At the current rate, there will be no soldiers form ther attack brigades left in 8-9 months.

Okay, black humour off.

What counts is the total remaining strength of Ukraine and the current loss ratio. The rest is mathematics. Industrial war IS mathematics. Russia can afford high losses, Ukraine not so well. They feel the many lacks already now.

They need a decisive breakthrough within the next 4-6 weeks, I say. If by then they still linger around with only the outpost line before the first defence line, a new round of fixed trench warfare will begin, favouring Russia.

-----------

I hope that Putin stays wehre he is, and stay salive. If he goes away in any way, the risk is that he will be replaced with somebody as brutal - but of more military competence. The last thing Ukraine needs is a competent military leader in the Kremlin, a new Shukov for example.You are right they can not be compared the Russians had no 3 line of defenses to fight against only makes it worse for the Russians.

[fithah4]

Kerch Bridge struck late Sunday night and news and video just starting to come out. Video shows expansion joints separated and on angle from each other.

Also new reports of 2 dead from actions.

NSFW , SALTY LANGUAGE AND VIDEO on " klw world news live "
Not sure if able to post link

Video shows multiple denations then large fire ball explosion.
Time stamp around 30 min mark for those interested.

[fithah4]

From BBC
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66218869.amp

Writing on Telegram, Sergey Aksyonov, the head of the Russian administration in Crimea, said: "Traffic was stopped on the Crimean bridge. An emergency occurred in the area of ​​​​the 145th support from the [Russia side of the bridge].

"Measures are being taken to restore the situation. I ask residents and guests of the peninsula to refrain from traveling through the Crimean bridge and, for security reasons, choose an alternative land route through new regions."

This is how Russia refers to the Ukrainian territories it occupied last year - Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Luhansk and Donetsk - and claims to have annexed.

Route through new regions:hmmm::hmmm:

Video of car on bridge shows damage on Front of vehicle, no other vehicles involved and close to expansion joint like it was thrust vertical in air and then car rammed into bridge section.

[Skybird]

Train traffic resumed after 5 hours again. Road bridge still closed.

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hWZ80sMJOAw

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qAquknNq5OI
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7GuDfRAh28w

[Skybird]

The Kremlin does not extend the grain deal. This will have repercussions around the world.

The Ukrainian Defense Ministry has admitted that Russian counterattacks near Kharkiv have put Ukrainian forces on the defensive.

Another top Russian general has been deposed. At the same time, a Russian airborne brigade threatened to disobey orders if they did not get back their commander, who was previously deposed.

The damage to the bridge again does not look decisive. One of the two car lanes is interrupted. The other looks intact on photos (we do not know the static data). The railway bridge resumed normal operations already 5 hours after the attack. For logistical supplies, the trains most likely are far more essential then trucks. The flow of Russian tourists however has come to a halt. Maybe it was a Russian false flag operation to dissolve the 13km long tourist traffic jam they had a couple of days ago. :hmmm:

[Jimbuna]

^ Putin reneging on the deal was to be expected and all he will achieve as a result will be to cause famine to countless thousands of people and ensure more governments who were undecided on who to support to turn against Russia.

His attempts at weaponising energy failed and so will his attempts at weaponising food.

I'd love to see the free world get together for once and say 'enough is enough' we will no longer take this behaviour any longer and reinforce 'food corridors' with the strong message 'Now pee or get off the pot'

Apologies for the crap source below.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PhFP7qJZ8f8

[Skybird]

^ Putin reneging on the deal was to be expected and all he will achieve as a result will be to cause famine to countless thousands of people and ensure more governments who were undecided on who to support to turn against Russia.

Will they? Countries representing 60% of world population refuse to side with the West against russia, and Latin ameic aand Africa en large show total desinterest in the war and opprutnistically do business with rsusia and Chian as they see fit.


I predict these countries will press for a "just peace deal" and end to the war, not caring one bit for the injustice suffered by Ukraine. The main actors India, Brazil and South Africa should serve you as a warning. There will be no global unification of resistence against russia, but more a trend of declaring Ukraine responsible for the famines. Take India. The French have just signed a big treaty for military deliveries, and headlines were printed saying that this marks an end of India's habit to buy weapons predominantly from Russia. Truth is that India still opportunistically buys oil from ussia and benefits from the - by now shrunk - price reductions Putin had to offer. India does what it always has done: refusing to take sides and choosing political actings that it thinks serves its interests best. Ukraine plays no role for it.

[Jimbuna]

Will they? Countries representing 60% of world population refuse to side with the West against russia, and Latin ameic aand Africa en large show total desinterest in the war and opprutnistically do business with rsusia and Chian as they see fit.


I predict these countries will press for a "just peace deal" and end to the war, not caring one bit for the injustice suffered by Ukraine. The main actors India, Brazil and South Africa should serve you as a warning. There will be no global unification of resistence against russia, but more a trend of declaring Ukraine responsible for the famines. Take India. The French have just signed a big treaty for military deliveries, and headlines were printed saying that this marks an end of India's habit to buy weapons predominantly from Russia. Truth is that India still opportunistically buys oil from ussia and benefits from the - by now shrunk - price reductions Putin had to offer. India does what it always has done: refusing to take sides and choosing political actings that it thinks serves its interests best. Ukraine plays no role for it.

"just peace deal" in other words not taking sides in favour of either country and "end to the war" both mean the same imho and yes there are more countries than just India taking advantage of Russian low price oil etc. long may it continue because hopefully that is all Russia will be able to trade for decades to come.

[Skybird]

"just peace deal" in other words not taking sides in favour of either country and "end to the war" both mean the same imho and yes there are more countries than just India taking advantage of Russian low price oil etc. long may it continue because hopefully that is all Russia will be able to trade for decades to come.

Look at the negotiations of the EU with the Mercosur states. They - the Europeans - derail it with imperial demands erected by the Greens on how America should and should not do things. Latin America counters that with having pointed the EU to place 3 in trade volumes, behind the UU and behind China, and threatening to end the negotiations, also demanding compensations now for the evil wicked white past and climate things.

Europe's position at least is not that strong as the EU wants to believe. And China and Russia do their parts to make themselves apparent attractive alternatives to the EU states.

Brazil recently gave Germany the boot. South Africa mopped the floor with the EU and its "demands". India refused to comply with European demands versus Russia.

The EU has only one strength, its economic weight, and that only strength it decided to weaken by its green deal agenda that weakens itself and makes the others in relation more competitive. And "the others" includes the US.

Baerbock can moralize as much as she wants, it does not matter. The EU can lament as much as it wants, it does not matter. If you want to participate in international arm wrestling, you better have thick muscles instead of just a big mouth and polished manners.

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8qWox0W0j18

[mapuc]

Big revenge from Putin upon the destruction of Kerch bridge I read

It will be as last - A massive missile and drone attack on Kyiv.

Food shortage.

It shouldn't surprise me if we will see major riot in the biggest city in the third world. Even here in our industrial world we may see demonstration.

More on this bridge-Why can't they do a genuin job and fix the bridge so Russia can't use it for month.

Markus

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FbHvbzSsoj8

[Skybird]

And the fourth Russian general has just been kicked out within a few days... Keep it up, Putler! All four men were said to have led their units quite effectively during the defense against the Ukrainian offensive. Is Putler a - double agent...? :yeah:

[Catfish]

Will they? Countries representing 60% of world population refuse to side with the West against russia, and Latin ameic aand Africa en large show total desinterest in the war and opprutnistically do business with rsusia and Chian as they see fit.
[...]
Putin's last move to not prolong the grain deal will probably lead to some countries changing their mind.

[Dargo]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1zcUe47xerQ
While systems like tanks, jets and cruise missiles tend to capture the public imagination, the war in Ukraine in 2023 is largely being fought with much the same tools as it was in 2022 - artillery. The constant exchange of fire has been critical to the battle, enabling attrition, blunting attacks and enabling advances. Both sides have continued to adapt, trying to refine their tactics and capabilities while wearing down their opponent.

But in this attrition struggle, losses and resupply of systems, barrels and ammunition matter, not just tactics. Ukraine now finds itself in an ammunition deficit - trying to attack at a time when its allies have not yet ramped up production enough to readily meet its needs. It's in that context that the US recently announced the supply of cluster munitions to refill Ukraine's ammunition bunkers. Today we look at those munitions, their likely impact, as well as the broader course of the artillery war in Ukraine one year on from my original video on the topic "outgunned"

[Dargo]

Russia amasses over 100,000 troops for offensive on eastern front
Ukraine faces a massive Russian threat in the Lyman-Kupyansk direction on the eastern front, where Russia deployed over 100,000 troops, 900 tanks, and 370 multiple rocket launchers (MLRS), Colonel Serhii Cherevatyi, spokesman for the Eastern Group of Ukraine’s Armed Forces, said during the national news telethon, Ukrainska Pravda reported. Ukraine’s eastern front is threatened by Russia’s massive buildup of troops in the Lyman-Kupiansk area in Donetsk and Kharkiv oblasts, according to Colonel Serhii Cherevatyi. “The enemy has concentrated a very powerful grouping in that area, more than 100 thousand personnel, more than 900 tanks, more than 555 artillery systems, and 370 MLRS. For your understanding, at the peak of Soviet troops in Afghanistan, there were 120,000 soldiers down there,” Colonel Serhii Cherevatyi said.

The Russian army concentrated airborne units, motorized infantry units, territorial defense troops, and so-called private military companies as a reserve in the Lyman-Kupiansk sector alone, Serhii Cherevatyi said. Ukrainian soldiers are holding the line and preventing Russian forces from completely seizing the initiative on the eastern front, according to Serhii Cherevatyi. https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/07/17/russia-amasses-over-100000-troops-for-offensive-on-eastern-front-ukrainian-military-spox-says/?swcfpc=1

[mapuc]

Russia amasses over 100,000 troops for offensive on eastern front
Ukraine faces a massive Russian threat in the Lyman-Kupyansk direction on the eastern front, where Russia deployed over 100,000 troops, 900 tanks, and 370 multiple rocket launchers (MLRS), Colonel Serhii Cherevatyi, spokesman for the Eastern Group of Ukraine’s Armed Forces, said during the national news telethon, Ukrainska Pravda reported. Ukraine’s eastern front is threatened by Russia’s massive buildup of troops in the Lyman-Kupiansk area in Donetsk and Kharkiv oblasts, according to Colonel Serhii Cherevatyi. “The enemy has concentrated a very powerful grouping in that area, more than 100 thousand personnel, more than 900 tanks, more than 555 artillery systems, and 370 MLRS. For your understanding, at the peak of Soviet troops in Afghanistan, there were 120,000 soldiers down there,” Colonel Serhii Cherevatyi said.



The Russian army concentrated airborne units, motorized infantry units, territorial defense troops, and so-called private military companies as a reserve in the Lyman-Kupiansk sector alone, Serhii Cherevatyi said. Ukrainian soldiers are holding the line and preventing Russian forces from completely seizing the initiative on the eastern front, according to Serhii Cherevatyi. https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/07/17/russia-amasses-over-100000-troops-for-offensive-on-eastern-front-ukrainian-military-spox-says/?swcfpc=1

AFU need to get Russia to withdraw some of these soldiers and material to other places on the frontline.
How !? Maybe start an offensive at some part where they haven't been advancing.

Markus

[Skybird]

After weeks of hard fighting, Kiev's troops are slowly but surely approaching the first - and in some places only - Russian defence line on several sections of the front. The advance is coming in spurts, with one village after another being conquered in fierce battles.

Kiev's offensive has been going on for about four weeks now, and if it continues at the current pace without any major breakthroughs, the troops on the border of the Zaporizhzhya and Donetsk regions, for example, would probably have reached the defence line by the end of July. .

Further west, in the village of Robotyne, Ukrainian soldiers are already fighting directly at the Russian bulwark. However, there are two more defence lines in this region behind the first one.

But what are the reasons why the counter-offensive has so far been slow and has suffered heavy losses? Franz-Stefan Gady is Consulting Senior Fellow at the London Institute for International Strategic Studies and Adjunct Senior Fellow at the Center For New American Security in Washington DC. He is considered one of the most renowned war analysts.

When he gave an interview to the Tagesspiegel three weeks ago on the state of the counter-offensive, he was deliberately reticent, the information was too diffuse and incomplete.

Currently, Gady himself is in Ukraine. And in conversations with non-commissioned officers, officers and a number of brigade commanders as well as high-ranking intelligence and defence officials in Kiev, he received clear answers and a comprehensive picture of the current situation on the front. In writing to the Tagesspiegel, he comments on his first-hand information.

The counter-offensive, he said, is primarily a battle of infantrymen at squad and company level, supported by artillery fire at most sections of the front. Progress is therefore not measured in kilometres, but in metres.

It was often said in the run-up to the offensive that the Western-trained forces would have a great advantage in the duel with the outdated Soviet doctrine of the Russians thanks to their Nato combat crash course. In theory, this may be true, but Gady paints a different picture to the Tagesspiegel.

"The Ukrainian armed forces still do not master operations with combined forces on a large scale," he reports. Operations, he says, are sequential rather than synchronised. For the expert, this is "the main reason for the slow progress". The lack of capabilities would make the Ukrainians vulnerable to Russian fire with anti-tank guided missiles and artillery. "The Russian defence system is not being systematically torn apart," is how Gady describes the situation.

Because this is the case, Ukraine changed tactics after a short time and switched to a war of attrition. According to Gady, however, the character of the offensive will only change if Kiev's soldiers can carry out more systematised attacks. "Otherwise, it will remain a bloody battle of attrition, with reserve units being gradually pushed in," the expert says.

Additional Western arms deliveries, such as ATACMS (short-range ballistic missile), air defence systems, battle tanks or infantry fighting vehicles, are enormously important in his view, but without tactical adjustments by Ukraine they would hardly prove decisive on the battlefield. The same applies to mine-clearing vehicles, he said. "Some Ukrainian attacks were stopped by Russian infantry with anti-tank missiles even before they reached the first Russian minefield," Gady describes the lack of systematic action.

Despite everything, the expert remains cautiously optimistic. "The most important question with regard to further military success for Ukraine in 2023 is whether the Ukrainian military can adapt to larger combined arms operations and regain mobility on the battlefield after having sufficiently weakened the Russian forces with its firepower," he tells the Tagesspiegel. Here, he says, the verdict is not yet in. In his view, the counter-offensive will probably last into the autumn.

His conclusion: "Military success in this counter-offensive is still possible for Ukraine, but will be a major challenge."

Franz-Stefan Gady is an independent defence expert and policy advisor. He is Consulting Senior Fellow at the London Institute for International Strategic Studies and Adjunct Senior Fellow at the Center For New American Security in Washington DC.

[Tagesspiegel]

--------------

I recall how in the earlier stages of the war the Ukraine was applauded for having adopted NATO doctrines and procedures. Then somebody in this forum posted some months ago the assessment of a Finnish soldier saying that he did not held the Ukrainian's tactics in high esteem and thinks they were not a good army. In the media, Salushny nevertheless was hailed for having brought Ukraine's forces within less than two years before the Russian invasion "to almost Western doctrinal standards".

Not only that many of these forces of the early war no longer exist - it seems that the doctrinal training standard in generla has been either overestimated - or was intentionally talked up to boost morale and public coifidence. But in the past months, the deficits of the training and the fallback to Sovjet era procedures is what dominates in the news.

[Jimbuna]

Putin's last move to not prolong the grain deal will probably lead to some countries changing their mind.

Precisely the point I was trying to make in #11923 :yep:

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b95zlfbW9yE

[tonschk]

There is nothing remotely funny about war and I'll advise you at this opportunity that a growing number of members in this community have a similar viewpoint about much of what you are posting.

[FUBAR295]

^^

^^
^^

Don't you have something more informative than this dribble....

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pyC7G9enX80

[Gorpet]

And the fourth Russian general has just been kicked out within a few days... Keep it up, Putler! All four men were said to have led their units quite effectively during the defense against the Ukrainian offensive. Is Putler a - double agent...? :yeah:

Sky,Your head must be popping, Look now you finally, Know who the Masters are. A bunch of University students in the USA. Oh and we have the Ocean to protect us.And our new. Ideology. That is spreading world wide. The next hurdle will be converting Muslims. That might be a problem. What do ya think?

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vUL6y7mSwvA

[Jimbuna]

Nobody can be surprised by this surely, after Putin pulled out of the grain export deal.

Ukraine says Russia targets grain infrastructure with strikes on Odesa port.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-strikes-ukraines-odesa-port-hellish-attack-official-2023-07-19/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YR3DOJte4Uo

[Catfish]

"Revenge".. somehow the wrong word after Russia started this war of aggression.

[Jimbuna]

"Revenge".. somehow the wrong word after Russia started this war of aggression.

Precisely :yep:

[Skybird]

African Union (AU) Commission President Moussa Faki Mahamat wrote on Twitter that the AU regrets Russia's decision to allow the agreement on the export of Ukrainian grain via the Black Sea to expire. He called on all parties to "resolve issues to allow resumption of safe transportation of grain and fertilizers from Ukraine and Russia to regions in need, including Africa." [DW]

So there is no question of condemning Russia, as some forum members hoped. There is also no differentiation between perpetrators and victims in this war.

South Africa, a close ally of Russia, no longer has to worry about Putin's imprisonment, since Putin let it be known that he would not participate in the summit of the BRICS countries and would instead bring forward his Mini-Me Lavrov. Putin is subject to an international arrest warrant issued by the ICC, which would have formally obliged South Africa to detain and transfer Putin if he arrived in South Africa.

It gets reported that russia focusse son not only filling up depleted mioenfields, which before were mostly formed by anti-armour mines, but now fills them up with especially anti-personnel mines. This reflects adfaptation to the chnaged tsatcics by Ukriane, from attempted mechanised assault to speed-of-boot-on-the-grounds. Probably over one third of the delivered Bradley have gone lost.


The British Challengers so far are reported and confirmed to not have seen any combat at all.



The losses amongst the French-delivered AMX light tanks are apparently high, Ukrainian commanders curse them for havign good eys and a nice Boom, but being totally unsufficiently armoured for battelfield action. Where so far crews of Bradleys and Leopards have escaped from total knockouts of their vehicles, the Ukrainians have suffered apparently several complete crew losses from the French vehicles when they got hit. There are complaints that some Wetsenr natiosn use Ukraine as a dumpster for old equipment they want to get rid of cheaply.



The Americans probably did it cleverly, the Bradley is said to no longer being fit for the modern battlefield'S threats, but is still good enough to also pose a serious threat due to its TOW2 and thermal and night vision. They want to replace it anyway, and loosing it in quantities in Ukraine does not reveal all too high technological insights for Russia. The germans on the other hand send the most modern of what they have, the Leopard-2A6, and these ending up in russian hands is a very different thing. Ther eis tehcnolkgy in them that Russia can exploit. We should have send Leopard-2A4s, like the others. It is rumoured that German weapon technology suffers in loss of reputation from the Leopards being done once and for all in Ukraine.



I fear the soon to be delivered Leopard-1A5s will suffer a comparable fate like the French AMX. Too weakly armoured.

[Catfish]

July 19th, Fire at Crimea military base forces over 2,000 to evacuate

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RUNurY66Hug

[Commander Wallace]

Russia loses 500 soldiers, dozens of drones, tanks, IFVs over past 24 hours

The Ukrainian Armed Forces eliminated 470 Russian occupiers over the last 24 hours, with total Russian losses in the full-scale invasion now exceeding 239,000 troops, Ukraine's General Staff reported (https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0zYYFFqzRz7Mw3WWy4GiMRESxTr4bHoJvNeN7QrYMVBZG 1QCMcppLFe1MsGBm7pYgl) in its morning update on July 19.
The breakdown of estimated Russian losses is as follows:


personnel - 239,480 (+470) personnel eliminated,
tanks - 4,123 (+4),
armored combat vehicles - 8,059 (+8),
artillery systems - 4,573 (+31),
multiple-launch rockets systems - 689 (+0),
air defense systems - 430 (+2),
warplanes - 315 (+0),
helicopters - 310 (+0),
UAVs of operational and tactical level - 3,885 (+46),cruise missiles - 1,279 (+6),
warships/military boats - 18 (+0),
vehicles and fuel tankers - 7,105 (+19),
special equipment - 683 (+6).

Ukraine launched its counter-offensive campaign in the south and east at the beginning of June.
The Ukrainian army is liberating occupied areas (https://english.nv.ua/nation/ukrainian-army-reclaims-over-10-square-kilometers-in-the-south-general-staff-50337766.html) and is continuing to advance (https://english.nv.ua/nation/ukraine-trying-to-minimize-losses-as-they-liberate-land-near-flashpoint-of-bakhmut-50339843.html).
The current modest Ukrainian successes are just the prelude to a broader and more extensive counteroffensive to come soon, according to Ukraine's Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov.


https://www.yahoo.com/news/russia-loses-500-soldiers-dozens-073700923.html

[mapuc]

I have to ask-How trustworthy are these numbers ^ ?

Has Russia lost 239,480 men since start of the war(Feb. 2022) ?

Maybe they have. If so they are being slaughter on the battlefield.

How many soldiers had Soviet lost after 17 month of the war in WWII ?

Markus

[tonschk]

THE UKRAINIANS ALREADY DO NOT HAVE ANYBODY LEFT TO FIGHT AGAINST RUSSIA

https://www.bitchute.com/video/rh2G23LeZq83/


https://www.hostpic.org/images/2307191959180091.png (https://www.hostpic.org/view.php?filename=2307191959180091.png)

[Skybird]

I have to ask-How trustworthy are these numbers ^ ?

Has Russia lost 239,480 men since start of the war(Feb. 2022) ?

Maybe they have. If so they are being slaughter on the battlefield.

How many soldiers had Soviet lost after 17 month of the war in WWII ?

Markus
There is a similiarity in numbers' trends from the US and from the Ukraine, if the one's numbers go up, then the other's numbers go up as well. But the totals can obviously not be calculated correctly if nobody has the full and correct data. I read the Norwegians for example calculate only 150,000 Russian losses. And that the ukrainains clauzate too ghih loses becasue they count reports of kills achcieved by several of their units - but on the same target. A bit like Vietnam: if so and so many auttomatic rifles pumped for so and so many minutes so and so many rounds into so and so big a strip of forest, then one assumed that scores a kill result of X - no matter whether there were any bodies found or not.


Putin seems to be extremely ocnerned about not declaring a full mobilzation affectign everybody, so far the soldiers he sends to Ukrianbe come froma bandoned villages, god-forsaken palces, and ethnic and social minorities, not from the centre core of the ethnci Russian society in the huge metropoles. However he has givne roder that the age up to which men can be called up to arms has again been raised, and certain trained officers can now be called up at even 70 years!


Ukraine however also runs low on reservists, and had to raise age limits repeatedly in the past 12 months. All in all the Russian still can digest heavy losses easier than the Ukrianians, both in men and material.
Those who believe that the Russians will soon be on their last legs will probably be rubbing their eyes. They will not shine and will not be glorious, but they will throw bodies into the holes at the frontline where needed.


Lets remind of that in the military elites of Russia, there seems to be a double consensus: that Putler was stupid to launch this war and that it was not needed - but now that the messy deed had been started one has to put evertyhing into it to make sure one wins it, no matter the cost. Thats why I think that if Putlers gets shot off the stage, things will become even worse. I think many in the West have some illusions on this.

[Skybird]

Russia's war of aggression is hitting Ukraine hard. Thousands of civilians and even more soldiers have been killed, and its economic strength has been severely damaged. Reconstruction will take years and cost hundreds of billions. This does not even take into account what will probably be the worst long-term consequence: the depopulation of the country.

The war has radically worsened Ukraine's demographic crisis, which the country has faced since it declared independence in 1991, and will lead to a severe labor shortage after the war ends. This is the conclusion of a study by the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW). Regardless of how long the war lasts, Ukraine is unlikely to ever recover demographically from its consequences, the study's author, Maryna Tverdostup, maintains.

At the time of the invasion last February, Ukraine had 41.8 million registered residents. But by 2040, the population will shrink by one-fifth to 35 million, she adds. The decline in the working-age population is expected to be the most severe and consequential.

The destruction remains "The bloodletting of the population due to the war will severely affect the reconstruction and economic recovery of the country for years," says Tverdostup. This is because there are simply not enough people "to clean up the destruction and get the economy going again." This is especially true in the eastern and southeastern regions of the country, which have been hardest hit by the war.

In particular, the heavy outflow of well-educated women could cement the population loss for a long time to come. Women of working and childbearing age made up 70 percent of the adult refugees. Children and adolescents who left with them accounted for one-third of those who fled.

Surveys in Germany, Great Britain and Austria show that around half of the many millions of refugees who have fled to the West are considering staying for the long term. The rate is higher the longer the refugees have been in the country, the better they speak the language of the host country and the further they are integrated into the labor market.
Fighting for returnees

This seems to confirm fears expressed months ago by Kiev central bank governor Andriy Pyshnyys: "We could lose the best of the best," he warned, urging, "We have to make sure we get our people back, we need them here."

According to Tverdostup's calculations, however, which according to the WIIW are uncharted scientific territory with her new forecasting model, things look bad. In the case of the best of the four demographic scenarios she has calculated - i.e., an end to the war before the end of this year - the country's population is likely to increase again from 2024 and reach its post-war peak of 37.8 million in 2030. But it will never return to the pre-war level of just under 42 million.

The worst-case scenario, on the other hand, assumes a long war until 2025. In that case, Ukraine would lose 7 million people and have only 35 million inhabitants in 2035. Emigration would remain high, and the number of returnees would be low. If young women emigrate and the old stay, this is bad for population development: fertility falls, mortality rises.

[Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung]


------------------------


That aims at the direction I hinted at when the Russian invaison was launched. The Ukraine could militarily win the war - and nevertheless loose it economically and demographically. The Wests helps to make this a certain outcome the more it sticks to policies that focus on "boiling the frog" instead of delivering what is needed to enforce an early decision on the battlefield. The longer this war lasts, the more destruction there will be, the more migration.

This is not to say we should make a deal with Russia over Ukriane. It means the opposite: that we must take off the gloves and leave the concerns behind.

[mapuc]

Ukraine does not have enough to fight the Russians

well this video clip say otherwise

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KnWkwruSpW0&ab_channel=CombatVeteranReacts

Markus

[Skybird]

When of 12 prepared attack brigades 8 brigades were engaged already 10 days ago, and the remaining 4 brigades have brought their artillery forward, then this seems to indicate a slightly different status than that video.



There is a reserve, 4 brigades with reduced artillery. Every further assessment maybe just lies in the eye of the - unknowing - beholder.


What is harder to assess is what effect the Ukrainian logistical interdiction strikes have on the russian troops at the front. We know that Russian artillery ammunition has been rationed in the southern parts of the front, and that in parts troops do not get food and water. Hard to say whether that is due to incompetent officers, or real lack in the logistics.

[mapuc]

^ I was thinking maybe he's right, so I made a search to find out how many brigades does Ukraine have ?

"The Ukrainian Ground Forces are divided into Armoured Forces and Mechanized Forces, Army Aviation, Army Air Defence and Rocket and Artillery Troops. There are 13 mechanized brigades and two mountain warfare brigades in the Mechanized Forces. Ukraine also has two armoured brigades."

Nine of these has been trained by NATO since Feb 2022

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armed_Forces_of_Ukraine

Markus

[Catfish]

THE UKRAINIANS ALREADY DO NOT HAVE ANYBODY LEFT TO FIGHT AGAINST RUSSIA [...]
bitchute.com (https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/bitchute/) [...]
This russian war of aggression does not go according to plan, whatever those fat party members and FSB types and their TV lackeys try to sell to you.

The russian c-units consisting of out-of practice reservists and mobiks without fighting experience along with outdated tanks lacking modern electronics should then have taken Ukraine long ago, no?
Obviously the military a-units are out of action, gone, what's left are doubtful mercenary groups like Kadyrov and Wagner, and untrained reservists. Poor devils.

Putin's FSB fires or downright kill generals and military staff just because they do not win against a better-equipped country with a lot of motivated soldiers, depraving the army of their best leaders, putting apparatchiks at their command who are then killed out of sheer incompetence, along with ten thousands of their "soldiers".

These russian people are at the front, serving a state that betrays them. They are dying, have been wounded and a lot of them do not even know what "Donbass" is.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1680525282925592578

Where are the fighting FSB types? Back home, not at the front obviously.

Besides here's the "bitchute" bias check:

https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/bitchute/

[Jimbuna]

Only in democratic countries such as China, North Korea, Belarus and Russia :)

Vladimir Putin ‘decides to win 80% of the vote’ in Russia’s 2024 presidential election

Vladimir Putin is planning a record-breaking landslide win in Russia’s presidential election next year in an effort to shore up his regime, according to independent Russian media.

“The administration has decided that he should win with at least 80 percent of the vote,” reported news website Meduza, citing sources close to the regime.

President Putin has remained in power since 2000 – including a spell as prime minister – via a series of elections that international observers claim were manipulated in his favour.

The March 2024 election will see even greater manipulation to deliver the president’s desired outcome, according to Meduza, and another six-year term.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/vladimir-putin-decides-to-win-80-of-the-vote-in-russia-s-2024-presidential-election/ar-AA1e4NFv?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=fdb67ae8a11644b4bb3c43c177a8c3c4&ei=12

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zr1Mkfp8oxQ

[mapuc]

They can't win on the battlefield some of my friends says.

I hope they are wrong and if they are right I hope that Ukraine will win the war on Russia's home base.

Like USA who lost the Vietnam war at home not on the battlefield.

Markus

[Skybird]

The majority of Russian civil society supports Putin's narration. Not becasue the fSb holds a weapin at their sleves, but becasue they really beleive him. They got trained since generations to believe what the powerful tell them. Since centuries.



What Russia needs is a mental denazification program like in Germany after WW2.

[mapuc]

The majority of Russian civil society supports Putin's narration. Not becasue the fSb holds a weapin at their sleves, but becasue they really beleive him. They got trained since generations to believe what the powerful tell them. Since centuries.



What Russia needs is a mental denazification program like in Germany after WW2.

And for how long will this support be going on..How would it look like in a year or two from now ?

Sooner or later he has to take reservist from inside Russia, from Moscow, Sct. Petersburg a.s.o.

Markus

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CCQ3psEu7xU

[Jimbuna]

Isn't it about time NATO supplied naval escorts for these grain convoys and called this war criminals bluff? :hmmm:

Putin warned grain deal betrayal to backfire as his fleet will be exposed to Kyiv's attack

Russia's decision not to renew the Black Sea Grain Initiative will likely have long-lasting ramifications - and may end up backfiring on him, according to the MoD.

In its latest intelligence assessment, the British Ministry of Defence said the end of the deal, which has granted the safe passage of ships exporting grain from Ukraine despite the ongoing war, allows the Russian Black Sea Fleet to disrupt any trade attempts.

The update noted the Russian MoD has ramped up its threats and has stated its intention to deter all merchant shipping from Ukrainian ports.

On Wednesday Moscow's military leadership said it would assume all vessels approaching Ukraine were carrying weapons - and therefore see them as possible enemies.

However, the UK Defence Intelligence's update cautioned, the death of the grain deal also exposes Moscow's fleet to dangers it wasn't facing before.

The assessment read: "The Russian Black Sea Fleet (BSF) will likely now take a more active role in disrupting any trade which continues.

"However, BSF blockade operations will be at risk from Ukrainian uncrewed surface vehicles and coastal defence cruise missiles."

The MoD believes it likely Russia had made the decision to kill the deal days before the deadline, July 17.

It said: "Russia likely made the decision to leave some time ago because it decided that the deal was no longer serving its interests.

"Russia has masked this with disinformation, claiming its withdrawal is instead due to concerns that civilian ships are at risk from Ukrainian mines and that Ukraine was making military use of the grain corridor without providing evidence for these claims."

The grain deal between Ukraine and Russia had been brokered in 2022 by the United Nations and Turkey.

The agreement facilitated the safe passage through the Black Sea of more than 30 million tonnes of grain alone since August last year.

Only a few days after the deal came to a close, Ukrainian officials accused Russia of destroying 60,000 tonnes of grain and damaged storage infrastructure in Odesa.

Kyiv's Agriculture Minister Mykola Solskyi said a "considerable amount" of export infrastructure was out of operation.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Wednesday the West was using the grain deal as "political blackmail" and would consider rejoining if "all principles under which Russia agreed to participate in the deal are fully taken into account and fulfilled".

Over the past months, Russia had lamented its country's fertiliser and grain exports were being penalised.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/putin-warned-grain-deal-betrayal-to-backfire-as-his-fleet-will-be-exposed-to-kyiv-s-attack/ar-AA1e6G5V?ocid=mailsignout&pc=U591&cvid=68fe27f49f5747a9bbe740d9cb712fad&ei=16

[Exocet25fr]

Lavrov said "Russia will ‘never abandon’ goals of military operation, unlike the West, Russians know what they’re fighting for......

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=axzdDLRJL1k

[Von Due]

Lavrov said "Russia will ‘never abandon’ goals of military operation, unlike the West, Russians know what they’re fighting for......

Do they? That is the question. Comical Lavrov with another nugget there. Unless of course, by "Russians" he refers to the inner circle around Putin and a few if any on the outside.

[August]

Lavrov said "Russia will ‘never abandon’ goals of military operation, unlike the West, Russians know what they’re fighting for......


Well first off the West isn't fighting, they're just giving the Ukrainians the means to fight and the Ukes definitely know what they are fighting for which is their homes and families.


The evil Russians, not so much. Most of them don't realize all they are fighting for is to steal land from their neighbors and kidnap their children.

[tonschk]

UKRAINIAN OFFENSIVE RESULTS IN RUSSIAN ADVANCE

https://www.bitchute.com/video/5bX2gjRLLbWt/

https://www.hostpic.org/images/2307210649130091.png (https://www.hostpic.org/view.php?filename=2307210649130091.png)

[August]

Looks like Ivan is so desperate for cannon fodder they're going to start drafting old men.



https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-extends-eligibility-military-call-up-by-least-five-years-2023-07-18/

[Exocet25fr]

Kaboom...........Badaboom.....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n9blcKBZ4fU

[Skybird]

https://www.nzz.ch/meinung/der-andere-blick/stockende-offensive-mit-wunschdenken-gewinnt-die-ukraine-nicht-gegen-russland-ld.1748085?_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_sl=auto



The Ukrainian summer offensive is not really getting off the ground. Kiev is therefore faced with unpleasant decisions. If there are no reports of victory, this will also be a stress test for NATO.
(...)
The fierce exchange of words reminds Ukraine that it is fighting the most difficult of all wars: the coalition war. Any alliance is only as strong as the weakest of its members; and the longer the war lasts, the more fragile the cement that holds it together becomes.
(...)
Western observers are almost lovingly preoccupied with Russia's weaknesses. These are obvious, both militarily and politically. Thus, there has recently been some puzzlement about Prigozhin's coup and Putin's position. But there is every indication that the regime will be able to continue the war for a long time. It is tempting to minimize Moscow's capabilities simply because people want Kiev to win.

Russia has a robust arms industry. Moreover, the war has had relatively little impact on people's daily lives unless they are serving on the front lines or have relatives there. Above all, the country is hardly dependent on foreign aid. What the Kremlin wants to happen, happens - as far as the Russian trinity of incompetence, slovenliness and corruption allows.
(...)
The Ukrainian leadership is probably facing a momentous decision. Either it puts all its eggs in one basket and throws its reserves, so far held back for the offensive, to the front in order to achieve a breakthrough. Or it will be economical with its resources in the war of attrition, thus casting the outcome of the offensive into complete doubt.

In the stalemate, the supply of cluster munitions is said to give the Ukrainians ultimate penetrating power. Previously, this was said about rocket launchers, howitzers and tanks. Anyone hoping for miracle weapons is regularly disappointed. This also applies to the delivery of American combat aircraft.

[Jimbuna]

Looks like Ivan is so desperate for cannon fodder they're going to start drafting old men.



https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-extends-eligibility-military-call-up-by-least-five-years-2023-07-18/

This lunatic war criminal is so desperate he will use whatever means he can to achieve his aims.

I'm not so sure how effective a seventy year old Orc will be at raping women and catching children to kidnap though, so he may not have thought that one out yet.

[Catfish]

The majority of Russian civil society supports Putin's narration. Not becasue the fSb holds a weapin at their sleves, but becasue they really beleive him. They got trained since generations to believe what the powerful tell them. Since centuries.

What Russia needs is a mental denazification program like in Germany after WW2.
This is what I have been saying (or tried to ;)) since a long time.
But how? I had hoped that an international medium like the 'net would convince some people voluntarily over the time, but if i look at what russian "anchormen" tell their people every day 24/7 and the information broadcast range to Siberia to reach the people – sigh.

So waiting for "the russians" to understand what is going on and act themselves is not likely to happen.
Toppling the russian fascist dictatorship (regardless of being done from within or outside) will not change much because there simply will be a new junta recruiting themselves from the same old "politburo" with the same old cul de sac mindset.
So a new one may or may not be better or at least different to the last one, it will not really change anything.
Russia saw a lot of change from 1917 on, and again after 1989, and then falling back to the good old cold war after 2004. Their civilian society was not anchored strong enough to prevent this, in this short time.

I wonder if anyone read Clancy's "Red Storm Rising" recently, it almost reads like a manual for Russia's invasion and WWIII.

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lob8rEngSNE

[Catfish]

Mr Bolton makes a lot of sense here with "Ukraine must ‘attack Russia’s rear military area"

Russian aggression is sustainable into the long term despite losses, as long as their rear end is left intact.

"Russia's blustering and blowhard military incompetence and corruption has been laid bare for everyone to see. The West should support Ukraine with modern fighter jets and the longe range capacity and authorisation to strike well into rear supply areas (including the Black Sea Fleet in Crimea)"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wwb4QL9Ejvs

[Jimbuna]

It would appear the Orks aren't particularly welcome in Belarus either....at least by the population.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5oU-Cy9Koi0

[Bilge_Rat]

57% of Americans who expressed an opinion in a recent poll disapprove of Biden's decision to send cluster munitions to Ukraine and only 43% approved the decision.

https://thehill.com/policy/4106234-51-percent-disapprove-of-biden-decision-to-send-cluster-bombs-to-ukraine-poll/

obviously not only "peaceniks" and "Putin lovers". :ping:

[Bilge_Rat]

Good summary article of why Ukraine's counter-offensive if failing and you are unlikely to see much movement of the frontlines.

https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2023/07/19/why-ukraines-counter-offensive-is-failing/

[Exocet25fr]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R2BfEB70aDY

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7IUUR03jMig

[Dargo]

https://www.nzz.ch/meinung/der-andere-blick/stockende-offensive-mit-wunschdenken-gewinnt-die-ukraine-nicht-gegen-russland-ld.1748085?_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_sl=autoEvery NATO country except the U.S. could not do this certainly not if they would operate under the same conditions even the U.S. would have a though fight fighting this kind of Russian defense lines this is not Afghanistan or Iraq. This would mean large losses for NATO, the only option would be a large air operation and that we do not provide to Ukraine this war will go on for years.

[Skybird]

When the offensive started, some weeks ago, I wrote at one time that I started with giving it a chance of somethign like 45:55. And I linked to that statement a week later or so and said I dropped that chance in my own assessment to something like 35:65 or 40:60, I dont know exactly anymore.

However, if linking to that statement again, i must say my scepticism has grown with every week passing, and I am now at something like 25:75, or even 20:80.

The Ukraine simply has not been given what it needs, not in quantity and now in quality.

In an infinite universe practically everything strange can happen, but I dont bet on it in this case, I would be surprised if the offensive wins pace suddenly and gains its objectives.

And when former NATO supreme commander Gen. Hodges said months ago he expects or thinks its possible that Ukraine would flush Russia out of Crimea by the end of summer or early autumn, already back then I was frowning eyebrows and wondered what kind of mushrooms he was on. The best outcome I could imagine at that time was to break through to the coast and isolate Crimea completely. Not more.

Things run badly for Ukraine. Even diplomatic setbacks do not make it better, even if caused by exaggerated Ukrainains expectations.

I lean myself far out of the window now, and I say this: if there do not come most dramatic changes in supplies and deliveries, then i see it as that Ukraine looses the war. And where should these supplies come from...? Out of nothing, raining down from heaven? Europeans until today refuse to produce in war production mode and still do not fully replace what they have given away in ammunition stocks.

Russia will end up keeping big chunks of Ukrainian territory.

And then rearming for whatever the future holds.


Europe still has not really understood what the term "Zeitenwende" really means. Especially not the Germans, but most of the others have no understood it either.

[Jimbuna]

I'm not sure if the Poles will see this as a help or a hindrance :)

Germany issues fierce warning to Russia and Belarus it will defend Poland's border
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/germany-issues-fierce-warning-to-russia-and-belarus-it-will-defend-poland-s-border/ar-AA1eaRBR?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=802caa4b130f44bb8917035d7d923780&ei=9

[Exocet25fr]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8mmtqnZqG6o

[Jimbuna]

Putin the war criminal is now spouting off about what he will do if Poland attacks Belarus. His mind must be running riot constantly looking for something to use for sabre rattling purposes.

The Polish response was first class "The pathetic bore from the Kremlin is once again repeating lies about Poland and also trying to falsify the truth about the war against Ukraine," :haha:

[Catfish]

“The famine will start now, and they will lift the sanctions, and be friends with us, because they will realize it is necessary"

Russian propaganda TV 'show'

The Russians have been telling us for months what they plan to do but the West isn’t listening

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1682296774768074752

[Dargo]

U.S. says F-16s will arrive in Ukraine ‘towards the end of the year’
The comments signal that the Biden administration is feeling a new sense of urgency to deliver the warplanes as quickly as possible.
The Biden administration expects American-made F-16 fighter jets will arrive in Ukraine near the end of this year, a top spokesperson said, signaling that U.S. officials are feeling a new sense of urgency to deliver the warplanes as quickly as possible.

“Now look, the F-16s will get there probably towards the end of the year,” John Kirby, a spokesperson for the National Security Council, said on Fox News on Thursday. “But it’s not our assessment that the F-16s alone would be enough to turn the tide here.”

National security adviser Jake Sullivan echoed Kirby’s comments on Friday, saying the U.S. is “moving rapidly” to get F-16s to Ukraine.

“We are going to push as fast as possible,” Sullivan said during remarks at the Aspen Security Forum in Aspen, Colo.

The Ukrainians have been pleading for modern fighter jets to help repel Russian invaders for more than a year. President Joe Biden in May lent U.S. support to an international effort to train Ukrainian pilots on F-16s, but the U.S. has yet to formally approve the training program, which is required under export restrictions.

In the meantime, a coalition of 11 nations, led by Denmark and the Netherlands, has taken early steps to make the training program a reality. European officials said last week that they hope to begin the training in Denmark in August, and a training center will also be set up in Romania. The U.K., in the meantime, will soon start English language instruction for Ukrainian pilots.

F-16 manufacturer Lockheed Martin plans to supervise pilot training through a subcontractor, Draken International, according to Ukrainian press reports.

However, countries have been hesitant to commit to sending F-16s from their own fleets to the battlefield after training concludes. Norway has plans to send two trainer aircraft for Ukrainians to learn on, according to a Norwegian defense official, but that has not been announced publicly.

Kirby’s remarks are “aspirational,” as the administration is still working to finalize plans to deliver the jets and train Ukrainian pilots, said a U.S. official, who like the Norwegian official was granted anonymity to speak about a sensitive technology transfer.

The U.S. is working to get Ukraine the F-16s “as quickly as possible, but it will take some time,” the official added. Neither Kirby nor the official specified which countries would be sending their F-16s.

The timeline Kirby laid out is faster than Ukrainian officials have predicted, signaling a new sense of urgency. Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said in a July 12 interview that he expected the first F-16s will fly in Ukrainian skies by the end of the first quarter of 2024.

Kirby’s comments come days after Sullivan was forced to respond to questions about whether the U.S. was committed to training Ukrainian fighter pilots, after POLITICO reported that Europe was still waiting on formal approval from the U.S.

Sullivan stressed that the president had promised to meet “whatever timeline our European partners need.”

“The United States will not be the hold up in ensuring that this F-16 training can get underway,” he told CNN.

Sullivan said the main roadblock was that the European partners needed a few more weeks to create the necessary training infrastructure. He did not commit to a specific timeline for training or delivery.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has pressed his Western partners to deliver the jets as soon as possible. Speaking ahead of a NATO defense summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, last week, he blamed his colleagues for what he characterized as a delay in sending the aircraft.

“We have agreed, we have pressed, and we have a coalition of countries that are ready to start training for Ukrainian pilots. [But] there is no schedule for training missions, and they’re delaying it. I don’t know why they’re doing this,” he said. https://www.politico.com/news/2023/07/21/u-s-f-16-ukraine-00107620

[Dargo]

Plans may be in the works to use an intended Polish-Lithuanian-Ukrainian joint military unit as an occupation force in western Ukrainian territories, and any Polish forces entering Lvov are certain to remain there, Russian President Vladimir Putin said at a working meeting of the Security Council. https://tass.com/world/1650119

The brainfarts of a lunatic. :O:

[Catfish]

Putin has said a lot of things, and most were not exactly 'to the point' to put it mildy.
Will anyone remember Putin else than a megalomaniac fascist.

[mapuc]

Plans may be in the works to use an intended Polish-Lithuanian-Ukrainian joint military unit as an occupation force in western Ukrainian territories, and any Polish forces entering Lvov are certain to remain there, Russian President Vladimir Putin said at a working meeting of the Security Council. https://tass.com/world/1650119

The brainfarts of a lunatic. :O:

"I cannot but comment on what has just been said [by Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) Director Sergey Naryshkin]

I'm pretty sure that this Sergey has said what Putler wanted to hear.

Markus

[Skybird]

Putin has said a lot of things, and most were not exactly 'to the point' to put it mildy.
Will anyone remember Putin else than a megalomaniac fascist.
A talented poker player, bluffer and gambler. Two decades long.

[Skybird]

Plans may be in the works to use an intended Polish-Lithuanian-Ukrainian joint military unit as an occupation force in western Ukrainian territories, and any Polish forces entering Lvov are certain to remain there, Russian President Vladimir Putin said at a working meeting of the Security Council. https://tass.com/world/1650119

The brainfarts of a lunatic. :O:
"Suwalki gap."

[mapuc]

My friends on fb are criticizing Ukraines use of Cluster bombs.

This made me ask them following

Why didn't you criticize Russia's use of the same type of weapon ? Which they even used against civilian targets

Markus

[Jimbuna]

Thread locked.