View Full Version : Here we go again-Ukraine once again
Biden has given Ukraine full support.
Have heard and read something about plans on placing American troops in Ukraine.
This will increase the tension in the area on the other hand it may prevent an invasion which many military expert says will come-They say this upcoming exercise Russia has planned to conduct near the Ukrainian border is an excuse to build-up troops in preparation for this invasion of Ukraine.
Don't know if it's part of Ukraine or entire Ukraine.
(Please merge this with our long Ukraine thread)
Markus
Platapus
04-03-21, 04:40 PM
I really hope the US does not sent troops to the Ukraine.
Rockstar
04-03-21, 05:14 PM
Deployments would not specifically mean only American or U.S. troops. It's NATO troops which includes European troops and equipment that will also be directly involved too.
I think whats getting Putin's panties in a bunch and causing him to rattle his sabre at the border was Ukraine's invitation for joint military drills and the push for Ukraine's integration into NATO.
Donbas: Kyiv invites NATO to hold joint military drills
Read more on UNIAN: https://www.unian.info/politics/donbas-kyiv-invites-nato-to-hold-joint-military-drills-11374195.html
Deputy Head of the Office of the President Roman Mashovets and Head of the NATO Representation to Ukraine Alexander Vinnikov discussed the security situation in Donbas and Ukraine's Euro-Atlantic integration
https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/zastupnik-kerivnika-ofisu-prezidenta-roman-mashovec-obgovori-67749
As for Biden from reading the above link he's absent from all of this most likely because he's unable to hold an intelligent conversation with anyone.
It was on the Danish news throughout the day yesterday.
The anchor said that Biden in a phone call with the Ukrainian leader said USA support Ukraine. Then something about placing US troops in Ukraine.
I could have misunderstod it.
Have tried to find a Danish article
Found an English article though
US support for Ukraine will not waver, President Joe Biden told his Ukrainian counterpart on Friday amid a reported buildup of Russian forces near Ukraine's eastern border.
https://www.aa.com.tr/en/americas/biden-vows-us-backing-for-ukraine-as-russia-amasses/2196552
Markus
les green01
04-03-21, 07:32 PM
hope Ukraine don't put much faith in biden if there stairs he wont make it in time
Rockstar
04-03-21, 07:57 PM
It was on the Danish news throughout the day yesterday.
The anchor said that Biden in a phone call with the Ukrainian leader said USA support Ukraine. Then something about placing US troops in Ukraine.
I could have misunderstod it.
Have tried to find a Danish article
Found an English article though
https://www.aa.com.tr/en/americas/biden-vows-us-backing-for-ukraine-as-russia-amasses/2196552
Markus
I'm sure the man was able assure Ukraine of our support. But I would love to see the transcripts. I'd wager the script err... I mean conversation was kept pretty simple and uncomplicated.
The people who are setting the tone for things to come and having the big boy conversations are the US Secretary of Defense, Secretary of State, Chairman of the JCS, and National Security Advisor. They have all made the phone calls to their Ukrainian counterparts over the past weeks, and General Milley according to one of the links I posted was said to have even spoke with Russian General Gerasimov.
As for sending U.S. troops, all I can say to that is if we go to Ukraine so does NATO. I'd go so far as to say this is more of a NATO operation than anything else. We want Putin gone and we also want to breakup Germany's and Putin's newfound love for each other. Which is why NATO exists, as nothing ever good comes when those two get together. But I don't think there will be a shooting war. Instead I think those who keep Putin in power will have him removed in order to avoid it and losing everything they have.
Jimbuna
04-04-21, 04:54 AM
I'd rather the US and UK stayed out of this but if NATO decide to get involved then send German and French troops.
The best chance they will have is defeating the Russians with Covid due to the lack of an effective vaccination system :03:
Skybird
04-04-21, 05:25 AM
Ukraine is no NATO member, so the block has no automatic role in it if the US goes in. And the Us may find it logistically challenging to go in without support by NATO countries.
Ignoring this may be seen as a de factor adoptation of the Ukraine by NATO, equalling NATO membership - the thin red line the Kremlöin watches closely that it does not get crossed.
This might be the reason why NATO members may agree to follow the US in, what does not change that I still would find it wrong - both actions, the US and the European one.
Personally I think it is no purely American thing either. Its on Europe'S doorstep, so let the Europeans run the show, if they think they have some military role to play in there. I already know how it would end, and that is not glorious. Germany is to tak eover command and main contribution of NATO's VJTF taks force soon - and still is unable to equip it with the announced number of armoured platforms. Far from it. And the last thing I want is getting sucked into a military adventure against the Russians on behalf of a partly weak, partly corrupt failed state dominated by crimincal cartels and organised criminals. We already have enough foul apples to feed in Europe, we do not need another one paying his bills from our pockets.
Moonlight
04-04-21, 07:00 AM
I'm happy to say that Nato without the support of the USA and the UK would get steam rollered by the Russians, as far as I'm concerned this is a European Continent problem and not anyone else's to get involved in.
Macron and Merkel's smurfs against the mighty Russian bear?, it'll be over in a month, :haha: if Merkel's not careful she'll have Russian troops doing a victory march through the streets of Germany........again. :O: As for Macron, I assume he'll be willing France on to the final victory from some safe country like Canada, that's if the French haven't all jumped into dinghies and are paddling furiously towards the UK's shores, :O: meanwhile he will have come up with a dastardly plan to deflect all the blame on the English again. :yep:
****ing Muppets. :D
Rockstar
04-04-21, 09:00 AM
It was on the Danish news throughout the day yesterday.
The anchor said that Biden in a phone call with the Ukrainian leader said USA support Ukraine. Then something about placing US troops in Ukraine.
I could have misunderstod it.
Have tried to find a Danish article
Found an English article though
https://www.aa.com.tr/en/americas/biden-vows-us-backing-for-ukraine-as-russia-amasses/2196552
Markus
IMO why your Euro news media tends to tell you it's the U.S. that's going into Ukraine. Is because its a great way to keep the Euro public in the dark about what your officials are up to. That it is actually Albanian, Croatian, Turkish, French, Netherlanders, Belgian, Danish, Norwegian, Bulgarian, Czech, Polish, Greek, German, Estonian, Latvian, Slovenian, Canadian, U.K. and U.S. also known as NATO was invited by Ukraine president Zelenskyy to participate in joint military drills.
Friends I want to recall the sentence:
Sending American troops to Ukraine-I don't know where I got it from, it must have been a classic case of selective hearing.
Heard something here, something there - mixed together =American troops Ukraine.
I have made a lot of search to find something that would support my comment and i couldn't so it can only be me.
What I also know is, from one of your links-Ukraine has invited NATO-By doing this they hope Russia will understand the hint.
The Ukrainian leaders shall ask them self, are NATO/USA eager to engage Russia over a none exactly important an a country not a NATO member.
Markus
Skybird
04-04-21, 10:19 AM
The Ukraine may have given an "invitation" (with a hook), but that does not mean that NATO must accept it.
I hope the ego is not once again bigger than the mind, and they reject it. Certain things just do not go well. American ICBMs on Taiwan or Wovjet ones in Cuba or Russian troops in Mexico or American troops near the Krimean and its naval ports. Each of the major powers has topics where it cannot afford to give ground if it wants to remain "big".
les green01
04-04-21, 10:20 AM
it is a Europe problem let them deal with it,it time other countries step up to the plate and have their turn with UK and US ready to back nato up it is a lose lose sititation for UK and US we be getting muck on for going in get muck on for doing nothing and biden so far hasn't impress the heck out of me
Even I can't understand what NATO/USA have to do in Ukraine-It's not exactly a country worth starting WWIII for.
On the other hand I would understand if NATO deployed troops near the border towards Ukraine in Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania. In case Russia are planning on invading Ukraine.
Markus
Catfish
04-04-21, 11:35 AM
But Taiwan is a US thing, geographically? Or Afghanistan?
I always thought it was about political influence.
But Taiwan is a US thing, geographically? Or Afghanistan?
I always thought it was about political influence.
A very good question you put up there Catfish
Which country on earth is worth starting a WWIII for ?
Or how far shall we let it pass before we start WWIII ?
Markus
Rockstar
04-04-21, 11:54 AM
Even I can't understand what NATO/USA have to do in Ukraine-It's not exactly a country worth starting WWIII for.
On the other hand I would understand if NATO deployed troops near the border towards Ukraine in Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania. In case Russia are planning on invading Ukraine.
Markus
Like'em or not, Ukraine is country that's on the verge of losing a big part of its GDP, industrial and natural resources all located in the Donbass region. Russia is supporting separatists in that area undoubtedly with the hope of annexing those resources for themselves. Ukraine understandably stepped up to the plate by massing its own forces along the contested areas, and just recently invited NATO to play war games.
Not sure about the source but according to the link below Ukraine also changed the language of the conflict too.
Previously, the phrase “aggression of the Russian Federation against Ukraine” was used in Kiev’s official documents. Today, the war in Donbass was designated as an international armed conflict, that is, war.
Such a definition has significant juridical impact. This statement completely blocks Kiev’s implementation of the Minsk Agreements. Paragraph 2 of the Package of Measures clearly defines that the parties to the conflict are Kiev on the one hand, Donetsk People’s Republic and Lugansk People’s Republic (LDPR) on the other.
Today the Ukrainian Parliament officially declared, at the highest level, that the parties to the conflict are Ukraine and Russia.
https://southfront.org/kiev-builds-up-legal-conditions-to-justify-its-upcoming-aggression-in-donbass/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WvufFwdqMzg
Skybird
04-04-21, 02:52 PM
But Taiwan is a US thing, geographically? Or Afghanistan?
I always thought it was about political influence.
As I repeatedly said, I believe the US is willing to risk a full-scale war with nuclear power China over Taiwan when I see it happening. Until then I take it that they support the claim they will fight as long as the war is in words, not missile barrages exchanged. Since WW2, the US has not willed to get engaged against a military foe on same eye level. In Korea, respect was paid to not push the Chinese too far. In Vietnam, respect was paid to not bomb targets that might trigger full Chinese engagement. Iraq, Kuwait, Afghanistan, Yugoslavia were launched in the expectation of them being inferior enemies. The various Middle America expeditions do not even count as full scale wars against major powers.
On Afghanistan, the original thing was Mullah Omar and Bin Laden, and after 9/11 going after Bin Laden, NO MATTER WHAT, was understandable - I would have done the same. Heck I would even have started a war with Russia, if needed - after all it were 3000 of US citizens slain. My problem started when all this nonsense with nation building and beacon of democracy-talking started. My problem with it continued when I saw over years how surreally and unknowing the war was waged. I rate practically all these wars as tactical victories but strategic defeats.
On such things, I have a very simplistic view: either you do it full and then go all the way, or you do not even start. Shatter the enemy and kill and destroy him with all you have, and if you cannot do that, then do not even bother to get engaged.
"We burnt that forest down."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=16Zx9zTXeS0
There is no inbetween. Where this is not understood, stay away from even considering war, no matter for what cause. You would loose.
Been thinking.
These verbal support to Ukraine and Taiwan and these military show-off, could they be some kind of message to Russia and China hoping they will think twice before doing something bad ?
If so, is NATO/USA prepared to walk the line ?
Markus
Catfish
04-04-21, 03:15 PM
1st: Yes, a message.
2nd: No. :03:
Aktungbby
04-04-21, 03:20 PM
1st: Yes, a message.
2nd: No. :03::sign_yeah: We "talk the talk" but can we " Walk the Walk"?
:nope:
I feared you would write no.
It's a dilemma for me.
Do not make promises, if you can't fulfill them. On the other hand-I'm not interested as a single human being watch how the world once again start a world war.
Following is a thinkable scenario.
Russia invade Ukraine and despite Bidens word of standing side by side with Ukraine. Ukraine gets no help from NATO/USA, only verbal support.
Could this give China blood on the teeth and attack Taiwan or some other country attack another country-Like Iran + Syria attack Israel ?
Markus
Skybird
04-04-21, 05:09 PM
Syria is not in the shape to atack Israel, has other things on mind.
Iran already attacks Israel via proxies, and gets attacked via sabotage and cyber attacks.
China does not need any encouraging example to do like it wants to do, it just does them when it sees fit.
Take this form of a famous one as a source of serenity:
Courage - to change the things I can alter,
Serenity - to accept those things I cannot help,
Wisdom - to know the difference.
This, and a big dose of Stoizism. I like to read Marc Aurel's Reflections.
I just fail in always living up to all that... :)
les green01
04-04-21, 05:16 PM
Russia did ok during ww2 they was pretty much fighting a one front war where everyone else was a two front but the fly in the buttermilk is Nato/Europe US would have to have the balls tell russia what would happen we know Nato and Europe don't have the balls for that not anymore and biden it would take him 2 months to figure out where his balls are north korea even if they jump in south korea could tear them up and spit them out middle east US could take the leash off of Israel and turn them lose and let them go for broke china don't care for russia dont think they would jump in but let the smoke settle like i said it take balls balls that a lot of people now days don't have
Skybird
04-04-21, 05:51 PM
North Koprea has stationed over 15000 asrtillery pieces at the demarkation line, most of them in striking distance to the bigger area around Seoul with 25+ million inhabitants. Missiles not counted.
Aerial bombardmeent in Yugosloavia was so ineffective due to clever camouflyging by the Serbs that their losses in attacked targets, mostly tanks and artillery, were practically insignificant and the attacked manouver units were able to finally withdraw and pull out practically unharmed, in full cohesion and fully combat capable. The experiences of the NATO air war against active combat units on the ground must be described as extremely sobering.
I do not know where this often seen attitude comes from that America can just defeat any enemy with ease and certainty. The Iraq and Afghanistan and Yugoslavia wars also do not support that optimism. And that were enemies seen as more inferior than North Korea. It still features one of the world's most dangerous and amassed air defence zones.
North Korea is absolutely capable to inflict hair-raising damages and losses to South Korea. They probbaly cannot maintian such an effort for long time, logistically, but a first decisive attack may be enough to break the South's economic backbone and destroy public morale due to unimaginable civilian losses.
An d when you compare Seoul with Pyönyang - what is the rational in assumig that threatening to wipe out Pyönyang in retaliation for striking Seoul has a deterring effect? I would say it is exactly the other way around, Seoul is much more preciosu and juicy a target than Pyönyang. The south has, due to its greater modernity and wealth, much more to lose than the North. And its a relatively open society, compared to the North. Which makes it vulnerable to sabotage, a Northern speciality.
I often have heard a war would most likely be lost by the North. I then usually think that does not mean that the costs for the South are affordable.
China's acting I do no longer predict. They may intervene against the North, to stop them. They may not do so. They may engage actively on behalf of the North. All possible. They will do what maximises the damage for the US and the South, strategically. Or use the opporutnity to open a second front over Taiwan and/or the SCS.
As I repeatedly said, I believe the US is willing to risk a full-scale war with nuclear power China over Taiwan when I see it happening. Until then I take it that they support the claim they will fight as long as the war is in words, not missile barrages exchanged. Since WW2, the US has not willed to get engaged against a military foe on same eye level. In Korea, respect was paid to not push the Chinese too far. In Vietnam, respect was paid to not bomb targets that might trigger full Chinese engagement. Iraq, Kuwait, Afghanistan, Yugoslavia were launched in the expectation of them being inferior enemies. The various Middle America expeditions do not even count as full scale wars against major powers.
On Afghanistan, the original thing was Mullah Omar and Bin Laden, and after 9/11 going after Bin Laden, NO MATTER WHAT, was understandable - I would have done the same. Heck I would even have started a war with Russia, if needed - after all it were 3000 of US citizens slain. My problem started when all this nonsense with nation building and beacon of democracy-talking started. My problem with it continued when I saw over years how surreally and unknowing the war was waged. I rate practically all these wars as tactical victories but strategic defeats.
On such things, I have a very simplistic view: either you do it full and then go all the way, or you do not even start. Shatter the enemy and kill and destroy him with all you have, and if you cannot do that, then do not even bother to get engaged.
"We burnt that forest down."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=16Zx9zTXeS0
There is no inbetween. Where this is not understood, stay away from even considering war, no matter for what cause. You would loose.
On such things, I have a very simplistic view: either you do it full and then go all the way, or you do not even start. Shatter the enemy and kill and destroy him with all you have, and if you cannot do that, then do not even bother to get engaged.
Skybird , The U.S. since 1945 Japan...we have never shattered an enemy on our own even when we had help.Every single conflict our politicians have sent our volunteer soldiers to we have had our ass kicked. And those allies that believed in us.They have had to build monuments to their fallen soldiers to. Today in this country, We do not know if our President has command of our nuclear forces or the party he represents has control.We do not Know!! I do know that in the past the United States has attacked countries who had Weapons of mass Destruction if they had unstable Governments.
As a citizen of the USA, Will other countries think of Americans as these peoples are losing their minds and they have Nuclear Weapons and just as we have done to other countries in the past and make a coordinated attack on the USA ? Sorry i do not know how to edit and post .
Rockstar
04-04-21, 06:30 PM
Anyone hear of somebody fleeing to Russia, North Korea, Syria or China? We're not the bad guys here. People flee other countries all the time, risking their lives to come to North America and Europe. When the Soviet Union folded and before Russia could get back on its feet. The Baltic States and other Eastern Bloc countries took advantage of the confusion and ran fast and worked as hard as they possibly could to become integrated into NATO. Ukraine wasn't even close then but have since overcome a lot of obstacles to be considered for NATO membership. Its their right to do so if choose too just as they have the right to preserve well established boundaries and the resources within without interference.
Russia has only one BFF in Europe and that's because they and their former East German buddies are working hard to undermine NATO alliances and Ukraine energy sources by diverting much needed energy through Nordstream2. While Russia secures the coal reserves in the Donbas for themselves.
Anyone hear of somebody fleeing to Russia, North Korea, Syria or China? We're not the bad guys here. People flee other countries all the time, risking their lives to come to North America and Europe. When the Soviet Union folded and before Russia could get back on its feet. The Baltic States and other Eastern Bloc countries took advantage of the confusion and ran fast and worked as hard as they possibly could to become integrated into NATO. Ukraine wasn't even close then but have since overcome a lot of obstacles to be considered for NATO membership. Its their right to do so as well as well it is their right to preserve their well established boundaries and the resources within without interference.
Russia has only one BFF in Europe and that's because they and their former East German buddies are working hard to undermine NATO alliances and Ukraine energy sources by diverting much needed energy through Nordstream2. While Russia secures the coal reserves in the Donbas for themselves.
Ok so what the hell does that have to do with America ? Look we are are in our own Reset and we certainly don't need to get in another Political war for anybody. We may be targeted by other countries because our political situation is unstable what have we done in those cases . Attack ,yes what goes around comes around. Lol
Rockstar
04-04-21, 07:48 PM
:D
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AszaaErOUaM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4nnpN1V_ZXQ&t=10s
nikimcbee
04-04-21, 11:15 PM
Side question, is our military even capable of fighting a major power? Seriously, we wouldn't be fighting a bunch of goat herders this time, what could go wrong?
Are we gunna draft snowflakes? Russia will just have to shut the internet off or change the wifi PW and we'll cry like lil babies. Can you see Cornpop announcing that we're re-instating the draft? :hmmm:
Side question, is our military even capable of fighting a major power? Seriously, we wouldn't be fighting a bunch of goat herders this time, what could go wrong?
Are we gunna draft snowflakes? Russia will just have to shut the internet off or change the wifi PW and we'll cry like lil babies. Can you see Cornpop announcing that we're re-instating the draft? :hmmm:
No my friend, the United States offres anyone that will join regardless of what the country your from, a future they lie about . And if we fight Russia we will get our ass kicked because our leaders sons and daughters can not lead us.
Catfish
04-05-21, 04:56 AM
I take it that after the last four years of succesful desinformation and diversion of "the west" (easily to be followed in this very forum), Putin smells an easy victory.
Russia has been very strong in its propaganda efforts in the last years, launching a gigantic medial campaign on "social media" and its own state-controlled agencies.
The NATO manoeuver being held right now in the Ukraine "provoked" Russia? At least the russian "news agency" Sputnik sees it that way (snanews is Sputnik=propaganda)
Translation by Google:
“Defender Europe 2021”: How NATO wages war “against nobody” with Ukraine and Georgia (https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=de&tl=en&u=https://snanews.de/20210325/defender-europe-2021-1433823.html)
https://www.army.mil/article/244260/defender_europe_21_activities_begin_this_month_inc lude_two_dozen_nations
In a response to one of my comment Skybird wrote
"China does not need any encouraging example to do like it wants to do, it just does them when it sees fit"
This may be the truth, however they(China)is calculating what kind response they may get if they attack Taiwan.
When they see USA is nothing more than a roaring toothless lion-they will not only engage Taiwan but do more in the south Chinese sea.
Back to original discussion-Ukraine once again.
Markus
Catfish
04-07-21, 03:16 AM
https://www.euronews.com/2021/04/06/ukraine-wants-to-speed-up-joining-nato-to-send-real-signal-to-russia
Jimbuna
04-07-21, 05:33 AM
What and bring NATO a step closer to military conflict?
Might as well admit them into the EU as well....as a net receiver.
Skybird
04-07-21, 06:38 AM
as a net receiver.
They already are, via the gas transit fees. Plus they have stolen and sometimes still steal from the transited gas volumes.
Its an incapable, corrupt criminal place run by oligarchs and criminal gangs. Only a fool wants a messy country like this into NATO or the EU. EU rules imply that a country has to do its homework FIRST and then can ask for membership (with the answer free to be either yes or no), it is not that membership is seen as a tool to make the homework for that country. We have already severla countries that were let in against the rules, and it did not go well so far. Plus the financial burden they are.
Of course many western politicians will completely ignore this, both in Brussels and Washington. Its just that the Russian will not comply. Want to see a huge flareup of the war between Ukraine and Russia, and a multiplication of military engagement by Russia? Move to get Ukraine into NATO, and there you are. Lets face it, Moscow will not accept NATO troops close to Sewastopol and the Krimean. They will react, and if needed with force. Would Washinton accept Russian or Chinese forces close to its main ports and major air bases in America? No. Not even further away in Canda or Mexico. American military action would be unavoidable.
Catfish
04-07-21, 06:40 AM
Maybe this goes a bit beyond economics.
Skybird
04-07-21, 07:07 AM
^ ... and deep into geopolitical and military key interests.
Bilge_Rat
04-07-21, 08:33 AM
joining NATO would be a major propaganda coup for Ukraine since it would put NATO firmly on its side in the conflict, but for NATO, it would be a lose/lose proposition:
1. under art. 5, NATO has to help any member under attack. Does that mean that NATO would be in a state of war with Russia has soon as Ukraine joins? Can NATO be at war with Russia in Ukraine , but be at peace in the rest of the world? How do we keep this from spinning into World War 3?
2. Presumably, they could carve the present occupation from art. 5 obligations, but would that in effect mean that NATO is recognizing and legitimising the Russian occupation in Donbass/Crimea?
3. would NATO troops be on the frontline in the Donbass? What happens when NATO troops are killed or wounded, will NATO retaliate? How far will NATO go, will it launch an offensive to reconquer Donbas? How will Russia react? How do you keep this thing from spinning out into World War 3?
4. What if Ukraine joins, but NATO does nothing but offer moral support. This will show the alliance is a useless "paper tiger". How will say the Baltic States stand up to future Russian pressure knowing the art. 5 garantee is not absolute?
No matter how you game it out, Ukraine joining NATO in the current situation is a potential disaster.
Catfish
04-07-21, 09:01 AM
If i follow what is read and spread, and what i read here i take it the Ukraine will soon be russian again, and all of it.
Bilge_Rat
04-07-21, 09:15 AM
I don't see it that way, there does not seem to be much appetite in Russia to expand beyond Crimea and Donbas.
The Moscow Times which is the only real objective independent english language publication on Russia IMHO has had many articles lately on the buildup of Russian forces:
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/04/02/explainer-why-are-tensions-between-russia-and-ukraine-ratcheting-up-a73457
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/04/03/russian-military-build-up-near-ukraine-is-an-intimidation-tactic-a73461
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/04/06/are-russia-and-ukraine-sliding-into-war-a73480
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/04/07/russian-troop-buildup-near-ukraine-largest-since-war-outbreak-monitor-says-a73500
The main takeaway is that the buildup is probably not a sign of an imminent invasion.
Catfish
04-07-21, 09:23 AM
Maybe Putin just wants to test Biden, anyway there's not much to counter with, even with the NATO.
Or a new Truman doctrine like "Not further." :hmmm:
Skybird
04-07-21, 09:33 AM
joining NATO would be a major propaganda coup for Ukraine since it would put NATO firmly on its side in the conflict, but for NATO, it would be a lose/lose proposition:
1. under art. 5, NATO has to help any member under attack. Does that mean that NATO would be in a state of war with Russia has soon as Ukraine joins? Can NATO be at war with Russia in Ukraine , but be at peace in the rest of the world? How do we keep this from spinning into World War 3?
2. Presumably, they could carve the present occupation from art. 5 obligations, but would that in effect mean that NATO is recognizing and legitimising the Russian occupation in Donbass/Crimea?
3. would NATO troops be on the frontline in the Donbass? What happens when NATO troops are killed or wounded, will NATO retaliate? How far will NATO go, will it launch an offensive to reconquer Donbas? How will Russia react? How do you keep this thing from spinning out into World War 3?
4. What if Ukraine joins, but NATO does nothing but offer moral support. This will show the alliance is a useless "paper tiger". How will say the Baltic States stand up to future Russian pressure knowing the art. 5 garantee is not absolute?
No matter how you game it out, Ukraine joining NATO in the current situation is a potential disaster.
The question is whether the Russian would let it come so far as to the Ukraine accomplishing NATO membership. I think they will escalate before the ink gets put on the treaty. At least that is what I would do if I were the Russians.
But maybe they are more pacifist than I am. :D
A "NATOnised" Ukraine imo is unacceptable for them. Not after their experiences with the Eastern enlargmentent of NATO 20 years ago. Their older militaries are still traumatized by those events, and I think Putin did not like it either.
Anyhow, a new member to any kind of alliance should be a contribution to that alliance, not just a burden and risk with no profits to be gained. Adding weak members do not make an alliance stronger, but weakens it. We can see that clearly in the current status of NATO. Increasing a group of weak members with another weak member just - increases the number of weak members. And we already have problems enough (that at least the WEuropeans for themselves are unable and/or unwilling to solve).
Aktungbby
04-07-21, 09:53 AM
That'll put a big rip in Stalin's postWWII Iron Curtain...No disPUTIN' that!:arrgh!:
Bilge_Rat
04-07-21, 10:29 AM
I seriously doubt NATO will allow Ukraine to join for the reasons I laid out, but Ukraine does not have to join anyway. NATO is already providing a lot of support in terms of training and military equipment. Several NATO countries have troops in Ukraine for the training mission.
Ukraine armed forces are already much more capable than in 2014-15. Back then, UKR had a lot of obsolete equipment, poorly trained troops, corrupt officer corps. Now, they have a lot of brand new U.S. vehicles, supplies, equipment, many of their troops have received extended NATO training. For example, Ukraine now has several hundred Javelins ATGMs which would put a serious dent in Russian forces should they launch an offensive.
I could be wrong, but Catfish thread(this one) doesn't it somehow go well together with my thread ??
https://www.subsim.com/radioroom/showthread.php?t=249066
Markus
Catfish
04-07-21, 03:52 PM
^ you are right, if the threads could be merged please?
Platapus
04-07-21, 04:30 PM
Ukraine
North Atlantic
:timeout::hmmm::hmmm:
^ you are right, if the threads could be merged please?
Not only merge them, also make some changes in the headlines.
E.g
Here we go again-Ukraine once again, want to speed up Nato membership
Only a proposal
Markus
Jimbuna
04-08-21, 04:57 AM
Threads merged.
Catfish
04-08-21, 05:27 AM
^ Thanks! :)
Ukraine
North Atlantic
:timeout::hmmm::hmmm:
Well it is about the always quoted worldwide "full-spectrum dominance", and it is not the NATO as a whole that sets the goals, but what its main member (read USA) decides. Freedom has to be defended [sic] everywhere and pre-emptive, from Afghanistan to Nicaragua, to the Pacific, and tomorrow from the the world :03:
Onkel Neal
04-08-21, 07:13 AM
I really hope the US does not sent troops to the Ukraine.
Can you imagine if Trump had done that. :ping:
Skybird
04-08-21, 02:26 PM
And there we go again...
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-56678665
Rockstar
04-08-21, 03:33 PM
Gee I hope we dont send U.S. troops to the Ukraine either. :roll: We had a chance to inquire and question, we had a chance to find out what may have come of better relations. Instead war profiteers, headlines, political hacks, and fanboys deemed it a bad idea and collusion. And the lemmings swallowed the pill.
Having a good relationship with Russia is a good thing, not a bad thing. Only "stupid" people, or fools, would think that it is bad! We.....
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 7, 2017
Catfish
04-08-21, 03:50 PM
Can you imagine if Trump had done that. :ping::haha: Ok
But then he never would have done it, no instant triumph and nothing to gain in the eyes of his followers, so also not for him personally.
The former President was a President, a little majority of the American voters disliked and whatever he did or didn't was wrong according to every ordinary person's expertise.
Had former President sent troops to Ukraine-A verbal havoc would have occurred.
Today USA have a President which seems to be liked if he choose to send troops to Ukraine - A verbal congratulations would arise
Clap-Clap-Clap...Right thing to do, bla bla bla. He is by all mean the best President we have, bla bla bla.
So you see it's not the question whether it's correct or not, it is a question about whether the President is popular or not.
I'm talking about what politicians, media and people outside USA would think.
Markus
Catfish
04-08-21, 04:39 PM
Gee I hope we dont send U.S. troops to the Ukraine either. :roll: We had a chance to inquire and question, we had a chance to find out what may have come of better relations. Instead war profiteers, headlines, political hacks, and fanboys deemed it a bad idea and collusion. And the lemmings swallowed the pill.
Well the CIA was there but it seems it did not help much at that time. I have no idea whether it would be a good idea or not to send troops to Ukraine now.
On one hand Russia might feel provoked, on the other hand it might think it could have a walk-over and annex the rest of the Ukraine as easy as it did last time, "defending" the "real" russian population.
Strategically spoken, Ukraine is close to Bulgaria, Turkey and Syriah. But then Russia already has invaded parts of the Ukraine and "secured" Sevastopol for itself.
Having a good relationship with Russia is a good thing, not a bad thing. Only "stupid" people, or fools, would think that it is bad! We.....
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 7, 2017
So you approve Nord stream II i guess? Like Trump? :D
Rockstar
04-08-21, 05:23 PM
Approve of Nord Stream 2? To a certain extent I do, as peace, trade and commerce, is in my opinion always a better alternative than to amassing troops and tanks at neighboring borders. However if we did establish better relations with Russia there is no guarantee Nord Stream 2 would be completed. We might convince Russia to continue the flow of energy through Ukraine instead of Germany. Remember the original reason for NATO is to keep the Russians out and Germany down. :D
Luckily for Germany though the military industrial complex and its profiteers convinced everyone Trump had to go. Trade and better relations were not what the Generals wanted. The headlines did say Trump should listen to his Generals! Meanwhile Germany, Denmark, Sweden and Finland enjoy trade and allow Putin's Nord Stream 2 project to lay pipe in their waters.
And now everyone in the U.S. is sitting around with their thumbs up their butt hoping we dont send troops into Ukraine :roll:. Which baffles the hell out of me because that's exactly what they voted for. Because you know... Trump bad man :har:
A little off topic question
Have a discussion with a friend, who says that NATO have about 15 times more material and soldiers than Russia have.
Have tried to find a special article or video clip where some Danish expert on European military said in an interview on Danish tv some years ago
(From memory)
When it comes to Europe - Russia is stronger, if you count USA as a part of NATO, NATO is stronger.
Which of these two is correct ?
Markus
les green01
04-08-21, 06:26 PM
A little off topic question
Have a discussion with a friend, who says that NATO have about 15 times more material and soldiers than Russia have.
Have tried to find a special article or video clip where some Danish expert on European military said in an interview on Danish tv some years ago
(From memory)
When it comes to Europe - Russia is stronger, if you count USA as a part of NATO, NATO is stronger.
Which of these two is correct ?
Markus
US is a part of NATO NATO has 30 countries
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/nato_countries.htm
Skybird
04-09-21, 01:47 AM
You need to consider the length of lines,. the size of grounds to be covered with the firepower you have.
Witho9ut American assets, NATO is not even worth half of what it is with the Americans.
Most militaries in NATO are not capable and ready to wage full blwon out military campaigns and wars. I would only consider the Americans, British, French (at least their legion) and Turks serious in this regard. And I mean real war, not just some political symbolic theatralism. There is a reason why the Americans like to have the Brits by their side for example, but see the Germans or Greek and others as a burden.
Thank you les green01 and Skybird for your answer to my question.
I know les green01 is correct NATO isn't NATO without USA. An attack on a European NATO member will be an attack on USA and other members.
I'm not that much into military knowhow so Skybird could very well be correct in his statement.
His statement made me think.
Does Putin have these thoughts- Europe/NATO isn't interested in a conflict when it comes to a non-member country like Ukraine ?
Are the Russian sure that an invasion of Ukraine or part of the country will only lead to harsh verbal words from EU/NATO and nothing more ?
Then there is the ordinary persons view on this subject.
I for once are in no way interest in an all out conflict with Russia.
Markus
Rockstar
04-09-21, 07:03 PM
US considering sending warships to Black Sea amid Russia-Ukraine tensions
https://edition.cnn.com/2021/04/08/politics/ukraine-us-black-sea/index.html
The United States has notified Turkey that it intends to deploy two warships to the Black Sea amid rising tensions with Russia, Turkish Foreign Ministry sources said on Friday. Washington made the notification just over two weeks ago, as required under the Montreux Convention on passage through the Straits. The warships will stay in the Black Sea until 5 May. "One US warship will arrive on 14 April, and another on 15 April to the Black Sea. And they will leave on 4 May and 5 May, respectively," a source in the Turkish Foreign Ministry said.
If Ukraine launches a full-scale war in Donbass, Russia will be forced to defend its citizens, says Putin’s deputy chief-of-staff
https://www.rt.com/russia/520490-zelensky-war-donbass-putin-aide/
Rockstar
04-10-21, 11:41 AM
On one hand Russia might feel provoked, on the other hand it might think it could have a walk-over and annex the rest of the Ukraine as easy as it did last time, "defending" the "real" russian population.
Strategically spoken, Ukraine is close to Bulgaria, Turkey and Syriah. But then Russia already has invaded parts of the Ukraine and "secured" Sevastopol for itself.
I'm not so sure Russia just arbitrarily invaded and secured Sevastopol for itself. Throughout history Crimea has been under the control of many nations. But the one country with the longest history in Crimea has for over 168 years been Russia. Even before Ukraine joined the Soviet Union Crimea, I think, belonged to Russia. It's administration was 'given' some say illegally by Khrushchev to Ukraine as a reward for joining Club Soviet.
Why the annexation took place because the Russians feel that Crimea belonged to them. After the coup d’état the was considered to have collapsed. Russia took quick action and moved back to Crimea.
This argument was formulated in the Statement of the Russian Association of Lawyers in the following way:
“We propose to proceed from a general principle of law, ex injuria non oritur jus meaning ‘law does not arise from injustice’.
There is no doubt that the cause of the tragic events in Ukraine was the forceful change of government in Kiev that occurred outside the constitutional framework as a result of illegal actions of radical elements in the Maidan movement whose participants largely comprise the current government in Kiev.
An unconstitutional coup has been committed, accompanied by forceful seizure of government bodies, illegal actions towards Ukraine’s Constitutional Court, and illegitimate countering of legitimate demands of law enforcement officers on the part of the armed ‘Maidanians’.
Removal from office of Ukrainian President proclaimed by the new, self-appointed leaders of Ukraine does not fit in any legal framework. A legal classification of so high a level is the exclusive right of the Ukrainian people only that should only be exercised according to the procedure set forth in the Ukrainian Constitution.
As it declared and decided to hold a referendum, the Supreme Council of Crimea referred to the United Nations Charter, which speaks of the right of nations to self-determination. Incidentally, I would like to remind you that when Ukraine seceded from the USSR it did exactly the same thing, almost word for word. Ukraine used this right, yet the residents of Crimea are denied it. Why is that?”
Still reading about the Donbass but it seems Russia and the former republics are still ironing things out since the break up of the Soviet union. But best I can tell Donbass Region has always been part of Ukraine. So instead of annexing Donabass, Russians opt to support 'separatists'. I think every effort should be made to support Ukraine here. Including Ukraine's right to choose to join NATO so they dont have to put up overt military aggression on their borders.
Considering what Russia has given the world, Totalitarian governments, Communist China and North Korea. I say we defend Ukraine.
Catfish
04-10-21, 11:45 AM
So "Turkey informed Russia"?
I guess Russia has its own surveillance system, maybe TASS only tells it to drive a wedge between Turkey and NATO?
https://tass.com/politics/1276195
Do you think that NATO and/or EU will try to play the tough guy against Russia if Russia choose to intervene in the Ukrainian conflict ?
Markus
Rockstar
04-10-21, 03:27 PM
So "Turkey informed Russia"?
I guess Russia has its own surveillance system, maybe TASS only tells it to drive a wedge between Turkey and NATO?
https://tass.com/politics/1276195
I think it wise to announce the pending arrival of two U.S. warships in the Black Sea. Could you imagine the response had we tried sneak them in? Which considering the width of the Straits would be near impossible to do anyway.
Rockstar
04-10-21, 03:40 PM
Do you think that NATO and/or EU will try to play the tough guy against Russia if Russia choose to intervene in the Ukrainian conflict ?
Markus
Unlike the Crimea, I think the Donbass region has always been a part of Ukraine. Which I think why Russia relies on those poor freedom and democracy fighters for independence from Ukraine :roll:. Tuff titties though, I'm really not worried about provoking Russia on this one. Ukraine has every right to ask for help from NATO and defend it's security and borders from Russian backed separatists or overt armed military incursion. Putin;'s claim of defending ethnic Russians isn't much of an excuse to move Russian armed forces into the Donbass. They choose to live their if they dont like it they can move.
Would have been great if we at least tried to establish better relations to see what could be done. But I think instead as we move warships into the Black Sea we're on the road to armed conflict, we must listen to our generals they know best. ;)
Rockstar
04-10-21, 03:53 PM
Then again maybe Ukraine isn't up for a fight. Things seem to be cooling.
original
https://ria.ru/20210409/donbass-1727582107.html
translation
https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&u=https://ria.ru/20210409/donbass-1727582107.html
--------
original
https://ria.ru/20210409/peremirie-1727618308.html
translation
https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&u=https://ria.ru/20210409/peremirie-1727618308.html
Thank you Rockstar for your reply.
Your last post eased my heart. I hate war it doesn't do anyone any good it only gives suffer and miserables
Yes the Ukrainian government has every right to ask NATO for assistance.
Is NATO obligated to through every thing they have in their hands and rush to the war scene ?
Markus
Skybird
04-10-21, 05:03 PM
Is NATO obligated to through every thing they have in their hands and rush to the war scene ?
No.
That would be a thing, if foreign nations could blackmail NATO and order it to intervene on their behalf!
Not even article 5 of the NATO treaty uses formulations so clearly formulated that it would not leave backdoors open for opting out of the loyalty to the alliance if a member gets attacked. Weasel-language.
No.
That would be a thing, if foreign nations could blackmail NATO and order it to intervene on their behalf!
Not even article 5 of the NATO treaty uses formulations so clearly formulated that it would not leave backdoors open for opting out of the loyalty to the alliance if a member gets attacked. Weasel-language.
I hope things will cool down and they will find a solution.
I have this inner fear that NATO will in some way or other assist Ukraine, if Russia does intervene in the Donbass region.
Markus
Skybird
04-10-21, 06:11 PM
They already help. The US delivers weapons and systems since 2018, including missiles like Javelin. US military trainers are there since 2015.
But:
according to media reports from that year the Americans also learn from the Ukrainians as well, since the Ukrainians have combat experience with a conventional, highly advanced, technologically well equipped traditional military enemy being fought at close range on the ground that the Americans have not had in their recent adventures in the ME. Its russian doctrines and Russian drilled troops, no militias, rebels or underequipped part-time volunteers. And its Russian drones and precise artillery bombardment that the American trainers have been exposed to. New experiences, nothing known from Iraq or Afghanistan. This enemy can bite back - in strength. Americna trainers form that tiem said the expriences with the nUkrainians showed taiught them about a growing systematic ground combat competence deficit in the American military.
For example this Austrian polit magazine from 2015:
https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&u=https://www.diepresse.com/4788803/was-us-militarberater-in-der-ukraine-wieder-lernen-konnen
Jimbuna
04-11-21, 10:11 AM
No.
That would be a thing, if foreign nations could blackmail NATO and order it to intervene on their behalf!
Not even article 5 of the NATO treaty uses formulations so clearly formulated that it would not leave backdoors open for opting out of the loyalty to the alliance if a member gets attacked. Weasel-language.
True that, there are safeguards already in place and have been for years now :yep:
Article 5 provides that if a NATO Ally is the victim of an armed attack, each and every other member of the Alliance will consider this act of violence as an armed attack against all members and will take the actions it deems necessary to assist the Ally attacked.
Onkel Neal
04-12-21, 10:24 AM
https://www.cnn.com/2021/04/12/europe/ukraine-zelensky-front-lines/index.html
Would be pretty amazing if NATO waited until Russia launched this invasion into Ukraine and invaded Russia through Latvia.
Skybird
04-12-21, 11:29 AM
Would be pretty amazing if NATO waited until Russia launched this invasion into Ukraine and invaded Russia through Latvia.
:haha:
The German Marine could send a float into the Eastern Baltic, throwing stones from there. Our only operational free frigate needs to go lonely into the South-Eastern Pacific asking the US Navy for protection during that trip, so the float must do. :D But it will be a float packed with a perfect plan, so the Russians are warned to take measures not to laugh themselves to death.
Reading one of Skybirds comments in his German politics thread made me wonder.
Which NATO member will support an intervention in the Ukrainian conflict and who will reject any military intervention.
I know so far it's only a crisis and not a war between Ukraine and Russia.
But if there is, will it split NATO ?
Markus
Bilge_Rat
04-12-21, 02:04 PM
I'm not so sure Russia just arbitrarily invaded and secured Sevastopol for itself. Throughout history Crimea has been under the control of many nations. But the one country with the longest history in Crimea has for over 168 years been Russia. Even before Ukraine joined the Soviet Union Crimea, I think, belonged to Russia. It's administration was 'given' some say illegally by Khrushchev to Ukraine as a reward for joining Club Soviet.
Why the annexation took place because the Russians feel that Crimea belonged to them. After the coup d’état the was considered to have collapsed. Russia took quick action and moved back to Crimea.
This argument was formulated in the Statement of the Russian Association of Lawyers in the following way:
Still reading about the Donbass but it seems Russia and the former republics are still ironing things out since the break up of the Soviet union. But best I can tell Donbass Region has always been part of Ukraine. So instead of annexing Donabass, Russians opt to support 'separatists'. I think every effort should be made to support Ukraine here. Including Ukraine's right to choose to join NATO so they dont have to put up overt military aggression on their borders.
Considering what Russia has given the world, Totalitarian governments, Communist China and North Korea. I say we defend Ukraine.
it is not as simple as that.
Ukraine never existed as an independent nation prior to 1991. Its boundaries were setup for administrative convenience by the Russian Empire/Soviet Union and not because they represented real "national" boundaries.
When Ukraine became independent in 1991, 35% of the population were Russians mostly located in the eastern provinces and Crimea were they often represented 70-80% of the local population. Most of them did not want to be in a new country called "Ukraine".
Crimea, which was 80% Russian, had 2 referendums in the early 90s where they voted overwhelmingly NOT to be part of Ukraine. Ukraine ignored them and assumed direct rule from Kiev.
Ukraine also badly handled the integration. Ukrainian nationalists wanted to assimilate the Russian minority by imposing Ukrainian as the only official language and enforcing compulsory Ukrainian language training in schools. Furthermore, Ukraine did not invest any funds in the Donbas which progressively became an economically depressed region overly reliant on obsolescent heavy industries like steel plants and coal mines.
The West likes to view this as a simple case of Russian aggression, but it is more accurate to say that the events of 2013-14 triggered a civil war that had been simmering for a long time and that Russia took advantage of the situation.
It is easy to say the West should support Ukraine, but what does that mean?
1. militarily: Assuming NATO helps Ukraine to reconquer and re-occupy Crimea and the Donbas, what then? The local population will probably view NATO not as liberators, but as an occupying army. Does NATO want to be the police force that represses the local Russian population?
2. Judicially: If you spend a lot of time reading news from Ukraine, you will see many Ukrainians view many in Donbas/Crimea as "traitors", so you can assume many arrests, show trials and long prison sentences. Does NATO want to be part of and tainted by that?
3. economically: The Donbas was already depressed before the war and the region has been devastated. If NATO/Ukraine reconquers Donbas, Trillions of dollars will be required to rebuild the region. Ukraine is on the verge of bankruptcy, who do you think will be footing the bill?
No matter how you game it out, NATO/EU getting involved in the conflict is a lose/lose proposition. The only sensible course of action is to continue the present policy, NATO serves as a back stop in case Russia wants to drive deeper into western Ukraine or the Baltic states.
Other than that, Ukraine and Russia have to solve this on their own....either on the battlefield or at the negotiating table.
Jimbuna
04-12-21, 02:05 PM
:haha:
The German Marine could send a float into the Eastern Baltic, throwing stones from there. Our only operational free frigate needs to go lonely into the South-Eastern Pacific asking the US Navy for protection during that trip, so the float must do. :D But it will be a float packed with a perfect plan, so the Russians are warned to take measures not to laugh themselves to death.
Keep some of them military assets in readiness for the formation of the EU army :)
??? reading Bilge_Rat answer to Rockstar made me confused.
I'm pretty sure I have, in documentary from WWII seen maps where the word Ukraine was on it.
I'm also pretty sure it was a country of its own before the red army invaded it in its effort to through German troops out of Soviet and to make a buffet zone between Germany and Soviet.
We learn as we live, so maybe I have learned something new today.
Markus
Catfish
04-12-21, 02:33 PM
Keep some of them military assets in readiness for the formation of the EU army :)
I heard the Gorch Fock is afloat again.. maybe it can be transported to its mission area with a leased russian ecranoplan :O:
Bilge_Rat
04-12-21, 02:35 PM
There was a region called Ukraine, but no country called Ukraine.
For the past 800 years, Ukraine has been ruled by the Mongols, the Golden Horde, Poland, Crimean Khanate, then Russia.
Some have claimed the pre-mongol invasion Kievan Rus was the ancestor of Ukraine, but a more fair reading IMHO would view it as the precursor of the Grand Duchy of Muscovy which eventually became the Russian Empire.
Jimbuna
04-12-21, 02:39 PM
I heard the Gorch Fock is afloat again.. maybe it can be transported to its mission area with a leased russian ecranoplan :O:
:haha:
Skybird
04-12-21, 02:39 PM
Keep some of them military assets in readiness for the formation of the EU army :)
The tactical genius of Boris Becker is already planning the first retaliating serves and volleys for Bernard Langers precision long strikes. Also two legions of well trained political endurance talkers stand ready to wear the Russians down in endless and exhausting monologues.
No nukes, however, unfortunately the Japanese Tsunami swept away our nuclear reactors. We hope to have enough solar panels installed in urban warfare areas to blind any invading enemy troops, however. Russian technological research on sunglasses is said to lack behind in quality and so gives us the edge. We will shine while they will - well, whatever Russians are dojgn when staring at solar panels on roofs, honestyl I have no idea what they do, but just imagine how we will shine!
Rockstar
04-12-21, 03:41 PM
Looks like the Brits are going in first, Operation Cossack Mace is supposed to begin this summer. Tensions might rise.
sorry, I should have said its not just the Brits but also militaries from 5 other NATO member states are scheduled to be in Ukraine.
https://www.unian.info/m/society/cossack-mace-2021-military-from-five-nato-states-to-take-part-in-ukrainian-british-drills-11376019.html
I know the answer to my question on whether NATO will intervene or not.
The leaders will be debating for days and it will end with a diluted condemnation.
The leaders will also give each member free space to whether they will support Ukraine or not and by doing so they do it without the NATO support.
Markus
Rockstar
04-12-21, 05:20 PM
I heard the Gorch Fock is afloat again.. maybe it can be transported to its mission area with a leased russian ecranoplan :O:
Maybe if we returned the Horst Wessel you could install a couple of cannons on it and use that. :)
Jimbuna
04-13-21, 06:48 AM
In total, the drills will involve more than 1,000 military personnel from at least five NATO member states, as well as participants in the Partnership for Peace program.
In 2021, Ukraine will host the Ukrainian-U.S exercises Rapid Trident 2021 and Sea Breeze 2021, the Ukrainian-British drills Cossack Mace 2021 and Warrior Watcher 2021, the Ukrainian-Romanian exercises Riverine 2021, and the Ukrainian-Polish drills Three Swords 2021 and Silver Sabre 2021.
Putin must be wetting himself laughing.
Catfish
04-13-21, 07:25 AM
Maybe if we returned the Horst Wessel you could install a couple of cannons on it and use that. :)
:haha:
a bit OT here but quite interesting, about the "Eagle":
https://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-33543706
Catfish
04-13-21, 08:24 AM
Russia calls U.S. an adversary, warns its warships to avoid Crimea
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ukraine-crisis-russia/russia-calls-u-s-an-adversary-warns-its-warships-to-avoid-crimea-idUSKBN2C00WD
Rockstar
04-13-21, 09:10 AM
Its too bad people thought war was somehow a better alternative to peaceful relations with Russia.
That the lemmings were told to believe peaceful solutions are considered collusion. Lol
Now as warships approach the Black Sea and we've just been accused of being an adversary. Do any of the party lemmings have an idea what to do next? Any idea as to WHY were doing this? Im only asking because the now silent majority here insisted upon it happening by voting for it and I was hoping they might break their silence and enlighten us.
Catfish
04-13-21, 09:26 AM
You could add a few carriers, you have enough of them.
Only to properly de-escalate the situation :D
I may be critical of Russia, but all this is getting ridculous.
I thought that USAN already had some warship in that area.
Seem to recall some incident. Maybe it's from somewhere else.
I can't speak for others than myself.
I deeply hope they will find a peaceful solution. I DON'T like war.
Especially a war who most likely will turn from conventional to Nuke
Markus
Rockstar
04-13-21, 10:34 AM
Well, in my opinion, with the exception of El Whacko, all of us has been through this before. Its all going to boil down to who can remain on alert status the longest before they run out of money to maintain their position.
Neither the U.S. the Brits or NATO has any intention to be the first to pull the trigger. Like I said before, we won the cold war because capitalism works and we were able to outspend our opponent. I'd bet big money that old cold war strategy is our current strategy in Ukraine too.
Well, in my opinion, with the exception of El Whacko, all of us has been through this before. Its all going to boil down to who can remain on alert status the longest before they run out of money to maintain their position.
Neither the U.S. the Brits or NATO has any intention to be the first to pull the trigger. Like I said before, we won the cold war because capitalism works and we were able to outspend our opponent. I'd bet big money that old cold war strategy is our current strategy in Ukraine too.
We all have our beliefs and political standpoint.
I chose to believe what Rockstar wrote-because it would mean peace instead of war and I like that.
Markus
Rockstar
04-13-21, 12:39 PM
We all have our beliefs and political standpoint.
I chose to believe what Rockstar wrote-because it would mean peace instead of war and I like that.
Markus
Sure we may have absolutely no intention to be first to pull the trigger. Still, it is a very dangerous game we are playing. There is going to come a time when Putin must make a choice to either fish or cut bait. I think its at that point things have the greatest chance of going hot, time will tell. Or his troops walk because the Russian economy can't pay them.
Sure we may have absolutely no intention to be first to pull the trigger. Still, it is a very dangerous game we are playing. There is going to come a time when Putin must make a choice to either fish or cut bait. I think its at that point things have the greatest chance of going hot, time will tell. Or his troops walk because the Russian economy can't pay them.
On that I'm sure-NATO will not be the first to pull the trigger-what my concern is that when Putin have given his generals order to invade Donbass region NATO will response and be third part pulling the trigger.
The second part to pull will be the Ukrainian defence forces. They could also be them who makes the first step-a preemptive strike.
Markus
Rockstar
04-13-21, 02:28 PM
On that I'm sure-NATO will not be the first to pull the trigger-what my concern is that when Putin have given his generals order to invade Donbass region NATO will response and be third part pulling the trigger.
The second part to pull will be the Ukrainian defence forces. They could also be them who makes the first step-a preemptive strike.
Markus
I wouldn't worry too much about those Ukrop. I seriously doubt they could fight their way out of wet paper sack. Russian forces would steam roll right over them and they know it.
Its a waiting game and the biggest economy wins. But dont underestimate those Russians. They been playing this game as long as we have, Im sure they still have a few cards to play which could allow them to get their way without firing a shot too.
Skybird
04-13-21, 03:29 PM
You underestimate the Ukrainians. They are veterans now, they got trainign by US trainers, and modern aTGMs. As I linked to a report from 2015, US army soldiers fidn thatz they take lessons formt he Ukrainians, for the reaosn fo nthat past wars of the US were no wars against an enemy the likes of the Russians. Major parts of the ground troops do not know by experience how it is to be at the recieving end of modern precision fire and artillery strikes, nor are they used to expect that the enemy can get that close to them to attack themselves with tanks and missiles. Rebellious shepards and unmotivated Arab troops without high tech equipment and proper training and with old weapons, being reported and attacked early by air force and artillery and drones, is one thing. A Russian doctrine-trained mechanised combat force with battle experience and modern equipment and a steamnrollign artillery and missile firepower- that is quite anotzer thing. And such an enemy the US never has had.
The problem of the Ukrianian groudn forces is not so much experience, of that they probably have more than the Americans (or who else has fought the Russians in the past six years...?). But its logistics, and numbers.
The russians tolerated the dloeivery of modern rifles and ATGMs to the ukraine in recent years. But there is a trigger point beyiond which they will not tolerate it anymore - when it becomes too dangerous for them. At that point they will do what everybody would do: they will strike.
Biden'ÄS offering of a summit, imo is a msitake. It signals weakness and lacking detemrination. It does not matter if that is what Biden is indeed, or not, its completely irrelevant. Its what his gesture will be interpreted as. And the interpretation will be: weakness, and lacking determination.
Skybird
04-13-21, 04:12 PM
Beyond all this theoretical talking, one scenario should be taken as absolutely possible as well: that what looks like war preparations, indeed is what it looks like: preparations for wanted war. Maybe meant that serious that the Russians do not even try to hide them anymore, like they hid the annexing of the Crimean in 2014.
It could very well be that they are serious again, like in 2014. One should not be too surprised, if the Russian troops amassed suddenly indeed move into the Donbass.
Rockstar
04-13-21, 05:30 PM
From what I've read Ukraine is still a somewhat politically and ethnically divided nation. They're still trying to sort themselves out since the breakup of club soviet. I think its why NATO was never that eager to offer membership. Though the Ukraine soldier may have the will to fight and fight well. I dont think their government no matter how well intentioned has the parts, equipment, C3I, to keep them in a fight against what I think is a far superior force for very long. Then again, I could be wrong too.
Here is why I fear Putin gives the order
The conversation came after Western nations and transatlantic military alliance NATO voiced concern over Russian troop movements near the eastern Donbass region where Ukrainian troops are in conflict with Russian-backed forces.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-ukraine-biden-idUSKBN2BP14C
And USA will not support Ukraine behind the curtain, but this time openly and even send troops to Ukraine.
Markus
Onkel Neal
04-13-21, 06:16 PM
You underestimate the Ukrainians. They are veterans now, they got trainign by US trainers,
I don't know what good US trainers will do the Ukranian military. The US only knows how to fight third world countries that can't really fight back. That, and ensuring >>>DIVERSITY<<< within the ranks. So, if the Russians are extremely afraid of women and transgender soldiers...well, maybe it will work.
les green01
04-13-21, 10:35 PM
what we got with biden made a mess of the border,falls down on stairs,forget names,forget what he talking about,trying to change the bill of rights he makes larry,moe and curry look good just the idea of him or harris mucking around europe agianst russia damn scary
Skybird
04-14-21, 04:32 AM
From what I've read Ukraine is still a somewhat politically and ethnically divided nation. They're still trying to sort themselves out since the breakup of club soviet. I think its why NATO was never that eager to offer membership. Though the Ukraine soldier may have the will to fight and fight well. I dont think their government no matter how well intentioned has the parts, equipment, C3I, to keep them in a fight against what I think is a far superior force for very long. Then again, I could be wrong too.
Put this way, I agree.
Skybird
04-14-21, 04:35 AM
I don't know what good US trainers will do the Ukranian military. The US only knows how to fight third world countries that can't really fight back. That, and ensuring >>>DIVERSITY<<< within the ranks. So, if the Russians are extremely afraid of women and transgender soldiers...well, maybe it will work.
:D
But as I have put Us contribution into relation already.
That linked article from 2016 or when it was, some posts before, describds the problem quite well.
Bilge_Rat
04-15-21, 09:57 AM
Ukrainian military convoy. Their equipment is in much better shape than the last time around:
https://twitter.com/i/status/1382365505919533057
Rockstar
04-15-21, 10:14 AM
Ukrainian military convoy. Their equipment is in much better shape than the last time around:
https://twitter.com/i/status/1382365505919533057
Wasnt this used by CNN as footage depicting Russian troops massing on the border? hehe
No doubt Ukraine has hardware but I think where they have problems is their lack of parts and logistics to keep those machines moving.
As I understand it the Ukrainian army has been fighting Russian supported "forgot what they are called" Some say that many of these where ordinary Russian soldier without the flag on their shoulders.
So how well trained are the Ukrainian in open war against Russia ?
Markus
Jimbuna
04-15-21, 12:11 PM
As I understand it the Ukrainian army has been fighting Russian supported "forgot what they are called" Some say that many of these where ordinary Russian soldier without the flag on their shoulders.
So how well trained are the Ukrainian in open war against Russia ?
Markus
If Russia moved with serious intent I suspect the outcome would be a Russian walkover.
Bilge_Rat
04-15-21, 12:50 PM
So how well trained are the Ukrainian in open war against Russia ?
Hard to say, on paper they should be better than back in 2014-15. They have been receiving extensive training and a lot of new equipment.
You also have a lot of veteran units since even though it does not get reported much, there has been a low level war going on since then with many 1-2 day ops to capture or defend key terrain positions.
But as Jim says, if the Russians mass everything, they should be able to roll over them. It won't be pretty though and the Russians will suffer a lot of casualties.
Catfish
04-15-21, 01:19 PM
From a Twitter "source":
"110,000 Russian troops are at the border, according to Ukrainian military intel. 35,000 Russian troops are in occupied Donbas plus ~40,000 in occupied Crimea. Russia says it has 2 armies and 3 airborne divisions in Belarus. 1,700 Russian troops are in occupied Trans-Dniester."
From a Twitter "source":
"110,000 Russian troops are at the border, according to Ukrainian military intel. 35,000 Russian troops are in occupied Donbas plus ~40,000 in occupied Crimea. Russia says it has 2 armies and 3 airborne divisions in Belarus. 1,700 Russian troops are in occupied Trans-Dniester."
Some question from a not so much into military strategy-friend
Can we trust this "source"
If true what does all this mean today and for the future ?
Markus
Rockstar
04-16-21, 06:41 AM
Good ol' reliable Joe, so much for that show of support. I wonder what he meant when he said 'we support you Ukraine'
The Pentagon has scrapped a potential Black Sea transit by two Navy destroyers this week due to concerns about escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine, according to two U.S. officials familiar with the plans.
https://www.politico.com/news/2021/04/15/us-navy-ukraine-russia-tensions-481897
Catfish
04-16-21, 07:12 AM
Some question from a not so much into military strategy-friend
Can we trust this "source"
If true what does all this mean today and for the future ?
Markus
This seems to be an ukrainian twitter blog or account, so i would take it all with a grain of salt.
But the Ukraine has all reason to be afraid of Russia of course, and since there is obviously no one to help them (apart from windy speeches and such) it may well be that Russia will "peacefully help the russian-speaking majority to reunite with Russia" as you will read in Tass or RT.
During the german invasion of the Ukraine there is often (by Russia) mentioned the will to collaborate with the invaders, but this is not quite true - there was resistance against Germany as there was against Russia, the Russians were regarded as equally foreign, and thus rejected.
This is howver only true for the western part of the Ukraine.
"Resistance in general
The resistance in Ukraine was directed against Poles, Communists or the Red Army and / or the Germans during the Second World War, in historical or chronological order . The main problem here is that in some cases, due to the coupled appearance of the enemy troops, a ranking had to be made and in some cases strange alliances were created, as well as the struggle of individual organizations that finally took place in parallel against all, i.e. Russians, Poles and Germans , proceeded. [6]"
https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=de&tl=en&u=https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geschichte_der_Ukraine_w%25C3%25A4hrend_des_Zweite n_Weltkriegs
As you see theer was a lot of resistance against the Soviet-Russian occupation from 1944 on.
It is quite complex, but denigrating the western part to be corrupt i'd say they are as "corrupt" as the US, UK or EU. "Corruption" is of course an idea that has been brought up and distributed by Trump, since the former democrat government was heavily involved in helping the Ukraine, and was alone therefore condemned by republicans.
I have no idea, question is indeed whether "the west" should just stand and spectate if Putin really invaded, another question is if Putin would stop after "freeing" the Donbas region of the Ukraine.
Mr Quatro
04-21-21, 10:21 AM
War drums are beating :yep:
Master chess player Putin has spoken :o
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/anyone-who-crosses-russia-will-come-to-regret-it-putin-warns/ar-BB1fTcZA?ocid=BingNews
The perpetrators of any provocations against Russia will come to regret it "in the way that they have not regretted anything for a long time," the president said, while failing to name any names.
Putin then added this warning
"I hope that no one will get the idea to cross the so-called red lines with respect to Russia," he added.
^ I predict as it's only a matter of time before Putin gives the go-ahead order to his troops.
The second quote I guess it's addressed to NATO as a warning.
Could also mean that country outside Russia shouldn't interfere with their domestic problems with political opponent.
Markus
Bilge_Rat
04-21-21, 11:37 AM
I don't see it that way, people were worried that Putin would announce war or an invasion or recognize the independence of the "Donetsk" republics.
He did none of that. His speech was short (by Russian standards) and focused almost exclusively on domestic issues.
What he said on foreign policy is the same kind of diplomatic wording the Russians have been using for decades, so nothing to see here.
According to analysts, the odds of any kind of invasion of Ukraine is rapidly disappearing.
To me it is a big smoke screen, while everyone is focused on Ukraine, no one is reporting that Russia is solidifying its control over Belarus...
This is very interesting
We have a different view and understanding on Putin speech to the union.
What did he exactly say and what did he mean by it ?
Markus
Mr Quatro
04-21-21, 02:59 PM
This is very interesting
We have a different view and understanding on Putin speech to the union.
What did he exactly say and what did he mean by it ?
Markus
Being an American that has followed the Russian leaders and their misguided thoughts for years now ... :yep:
I thought Putin was talking to President Biden not to interfere with Russia in any way or you will face certain rebuke in a way that we have not responded to before. :o
Bilge_Rat
04-22-21, 09:08 AM
Russia is pulling back its troops, so no invasion today:
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/04/22/russia-to-withdraw-troops-from-ukraine-border-crimea-a73705
Turns out it was an "exercise"....:hmmm:
No doubt there will be a lot of speculation as to what they were really up to...
Bilge_Rat
04-22-21, 09:13 AM
What did he exactly say and what did he mean by it ?
Markus
Lots of coverage in the Moscow Times, key quotes from his speech are here:
— “I hope no one will think of crossing so-called ‘red lines’ against Russia, which we ourselves will define in each separate case. Russia’s response will be symmetrical, fast and tough. The organizers of any provocations threatening our core security interests will regret their actions more than they've regretted anything in a long time.”
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/04/21/in-quotes-putin-speaks-on-state-of-the-nation-a73686
it is ambiguous enough that it can be interpreted either way, but the basic message is the same that the Russians have been using since 1945.
Jimbuna
04-22-21, 10:29 AM
Russia is pulling back its troops, so no invasion today:
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/04/22/russia-to-withdraw-troops-from-ukraine-border-crimea-a73705
Turns out it was an "exercise"....:hmmm:
No doubt there will be a lot of speculation as to what they were really up to...
BBC link below
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-56842763
Russia is pulling back its troops, so no invasion today:
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/04/22/russia-to-withdraw-troops-from-ukraine-border-crimea-a73705
Turns out it was an "exercise"....:hmmm:
No doubt there will be a lot of speculation as to what they were really up to...
Always fool your enemy thou where you will strike among his defense line.
Maybe they used this area to train for an invasion of:
Belarus
Or
Gotland (Sweden)
Of course it isn't Gotland-but strategy it's worth a lot.
Markus
Catfish
04-22-21, 03:43 PM
I take it there were a few telephone calls betweeen Russia and the US, and thngs have cleared up a bit.
Or maybe that Belarus is next.. Russia has protested in "Foreigners inciting revolts against Lukashenko" (the rightfully 'president' of said country). I wonder what happens when Lukashenko goes.
Putin got a go ahead with his invasion plan of Ukraine.
Some weeks ago I heard the American minister saying that USA and it's allied would defend Ukraine.
This made me wonder-what kind of defence are we taking about.
Well in the late night news yesterday I got the answer.
If Russia does invade Ukraine-USA and EU will impose economical sanction against companies and single person in Russia.
Wow now Putin is shaking of fear-Economical sanction that's gonna hurt.....NOT
So I see this as a go ahead for Putin.
Markus
Jimbuna
12-04-21, 07:14 AM
Joe Biden has warned that he will not accept "red lines" set by Moscow as fears mount that Russia is planning an imminent invasion of Ukraine.
The US president said he will make it "very, very difficult" for Russia to invade its neighbour.
Meanwhile, US media has reported that intelligence officials fear an invasion could begin in early 2022.
It comes as Ukraine says Russia has boosted its military at the border and amassed some 94,000 troops there.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-59528864
There's no doubt the war will come.
The Danish Minister of Defense was visiting Ukraine where she promised to give Ukraine our morally support if Russia does invade them.
Russia has also put up some demands NATO can't say yes to.
EU has spoken about economical sanction.
So as mentioned before the war will come, sadly
Markus
Skybird
12-21-21, 04:58 PM
How often can Russia threaten practical consequences and not carrying them out without loosing "credibility"? They have risen the stakes so many times now that I fear they can no more bug out of the corner they pushed themselves into without attacking in the Ukraine.
I agree, war has become more likely.
European wishy washy babbling did not help either.
Russia told the US they want to talk to the US without the Europeand, because Europe would mean jusr endless distracting babbling leading nowhere.
Annalena, take over and teach them! Green leftist valkyrie to the rescue! Urgent! Urgent! Urgent!
Skybird
12-21-21, 05:00 PM
How often can Russia threaten practical consequences and not carrying them out without loosing "credibility"? They have risen the stakes so many times now that I fear they can no more bug out of the corner they pushed themselves into without attacking in the Ukraine.
I agree, war has become more likely.
European wishy washy babbling did not help either.
Russia told the US they want to talk to the US without the Europeand, because Europe would mean jusr endless distracting babbling leading nowhere.
Annalena, take over and teach them! Green leftist valkyrie to the rescue! Urgent! Urgent! Urgent! We need that feminist super diplomacy, and we need it now!
If they withdraw their troops from the Ukraine border, Russia will lose face(or what you use to say in cases like this)
As you wrote they have maneuvered them self into a corner by their actions.
Edit
Had a discussion with a FB-friend who wrote.
Who would have an interest in a war ?
Here I replied
NATO and/or EU has no interest, that's why they hope that a threat on economical sanction is enough to make Russia think twice before start the invasion of Ukraine.
Russia I don't know how much of an interest they have in a war with Ukraine.
End edit
Markus
Jimbuna
12-23-21, 08:05 AM
Russia and Ukraine have agreed to restore a 2020 ceasefire deal in eastern Ukraine, prompting a top official in Kyiv to say that the coming holidays "should be peaceful".
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-59766810
Heard in the news that Putin in his annual press meeting accused Ukraine for military planning.
Didn't get all of what they said in the news.
Markus
So in my newsfeed I read that Russia according to RT is accusing NATO preparing for war against Russia.
I see it as one big joke.
This accusation could also mean that Russia try to find a way to start a war.
Speaking during a briefing for military attachés and other foreign diplomats, in Moscow, on Monday, Russian Deputy Defense Minister Alexander Fomin accused NATO of readying up for an all-out war with Russia
https://www.rt.com/russia/544537-nato-war-preparations-moscow/
Markus
Kapitan
12-28-21, 10:24 AM
Well Russia is no friend of NATO, I do for one believe that NATO forces are preparing just in case but not for a first strike but to counter what's being built up in Ukraine Russian border.
I don't see us going to war for Ukraine simply because NATO is split on the idea and some states are not willing to invoke article 5 as Ukraine is not a NATO member.
The question is would Putin invade Ukraine ?
I would give that a 50/50 it depends on how the west box Russia in, however Russia does have a bit of a hold on Europe in Gas supplies (roughly 25% of EU gas comes from Russia)
Is Russia capable of a Long protracted war, well financially yes they have a much lower debt to GDP ratio to nearly all the western countries even with covid but the money markets are squarely in the west that leaves only really Iran and China to free up financing.
China may use any distraction in Ukraine as a cover to get Taiwan believing the West cannot fight on two fronts.
Something else is going on in the background seems to me like this is a classic deception move to cover for something else and i do think we should be looking at China and not Russia
Skybird
12-28-21, 10:41 AM
Putin is fully back to what the USSR wanted throughout the cold war.
Driving a wedge between the US and Europe. By that increasing the vulnerability of Europe, and by that making it more porne to blackmail and threatening. Keeping US nuclear tactcial wepaons out of Europe, or get them out. Putin wants back what was lost in the years after Perestroika: the Baltic states are on his wish list, Poland, obviously the Ukraine. He cnanot get it with one big hammerblow, but he can keepo things in a fragile state of lacking staiblity so to keepo Russia's options on the table. A rift in the EU between Russophile appeasers (Germany, france), and hawks (Eastern Europeans, the US) is always helpful. He also wants the licensing of NS2, that woudlk allow him to make money again with delivering gas while also tigheenign the strangling wire around the Ukraine.
In general he wnats to keep the initiave, to keep ahad of the West'ÄS plannign cacle, he wanst eurooe to react, Europe not getting ahead in the action-reaction game. Keep them busy, keep them reacting, give them ever new things to be concerned about and wanting to discuss them, dont let them have a break where they could breath and come to their senses, he thinks.
Every chess player knows it, every military tactician: give the enemy something to be concerned about. Raise ever new threats, and when he has countered them, already have new threats ready to keep him ducking down. Keep him on the defensive, keep him reacting. Fix him in place, while you are manouvering into ever better positions.
Nor NATO or EU is interested in a war with Russia in no way. If Russia does invade Ukraine the response would be, as an EU-politician said on Danish TV. an all-out economical sanction against Russia.
Even if Russia should threaten Poland there will not be a war.
NATO and EU has become psychological weak.
I wonder if we can compare the situation near the border between Russia and Ukraine, with the situation between Germany and Poland 1938 ?
Markus
Skybird
12-28-21, 11:23 AM
While Germany has stopped the EU from delivering weapons to the Ukraine (!!! gotta love those Germans...), I think the US does and who mnows, some European nations, in the hidden, do it as well. I recently red attacking the Ukraine in full would become a very costly war for Russia. They would probably win, but it would be costly, and not fast.
They must not anyway. Keeping the Ukraine instabile and on its toes works as good for Russia, for just a fraction of the price of a full war.
While Germany has stopped the EU from delivering weapons to the Ukraine (!!! gotta love those Germans...), I think the US does and who mnows, some European nations, in the hidden, do it as well. I recently red attacking the Ukraine in full would become a very costly war for Russia. They would probably win, but it would be costly, and not fast.
They must not anyway. Keeping the Ukraine instabile and on its toes works as good for Russia, for just a fraction of the price of a full war.
European NATO is both military and political weak.
The American part of NATO is military strong but with a weak administration in the White House.
China and Russia know this.
This is why I fear there will be a war in the Donbass region after the Russian new years eve.
Edit
I had no plan on turning this thread into discussing Ukraine. Well I did, so Jim, merge this with my Ukraine thread
End edit
Markus
astvitaliy1982
12-28-21, 01:54 PM
Ребята, может вы вспомните из за чего началась война на Украине? Так я напомню. Президент Янукович в последний момент отказался подписывать документы о сближении с Евросоюзом. Условия были очень не выгодны для Украины. И тут же в этой стране вспыхнул "майдан" ( революция). Тогдашний президент Янукович согласился сложить свои полномочия и уйти с поста, лишь бы не развязалась война. Гарантами этого соглашения выступили Германия и Франция. Но они обманули его и в Киеве начали убивать людей, Януковичь сбежал в Россию а к власти пришёл Порошенко и подписал с Евросоюзом эти соглашения. Тут же в Украину приехала Виктория Нуланд и накормила людей евро-печеньем. Донбасс отказался сотрудничать с Киевом и признавать власть Порошенко. Который пришел к ней не легитимным путем. Порошенко вместо полицейской операции на Донбассе, предпочел военную операцию и ввел войска против части фактически своего народа. На Донбассе началась война. Россия оказывает гуманитарную помощь Донбассу и отправляет гум конвои в этот край. Украина объявила торговую блокаду Донбассу и официально запретила ввозить товары из Украины в Донбасс и вывела свою национальную валюту с этого края. Если бы не Россия тут был бы голод.
Сейчас Украина в кабале Евросоюза ( это моё личное мнение). Из этой страны почти сразу начали вывозить чернозем, залежи янтаря, лес с западной Украины, остановили и развалили военное производств и многое другое. Все это почти за бесценок перевозится в Европу.
У меня вопрос. При чем тут Россия?
Dear astvitaliy1982
I can't get the head and tail in what you wrote in Russian when translated into English.
Here is what it says in English
Dear friends, can you send me an order to live in Ukraine? So here we go. President Enukovich at the last moment decided to send the documents to the Eurosome. The terms may not be valid for Ukraine. And this is the one-page "avoid" (revolution) feature. The daily president of Enukovich suggested that you fill out the form below and leave a message if it does not appear. The guarantees governing the relationship between Germany and France. If they have not been registered with Kiev, they will not be able to return to Russia, and they will be sent back and forth between them. There are some of them in the Ukraine, Victoria Nuland and the other European-born. Donbass has decided to work with Kiev and present the power of Poroshenko. The interior of the room is not a legitimate one. The most recent police operations in the Donbass, the proceeds of the operation and the actual operation of the warehouse. At the Donbass you will arrive. Russia occupies the Donas base of the rubber band and conveys a rubber cone in this area. Ukraine uses the Donboss blockchain and officially recommends accessing documents from Ukraine on or off. If Russia does not reach this point in time.
Seek Ukraine in the cable of Eurosity (this is a very simple memorial). If this is the case then maybe this is a nice post. This post is for visitors to Europe.
I'm talking about it. By whom do you think Russia is?
Markus
Rockstar
12-28-21, 02:36 PM
Dear astvitaliy1982
I can't get the head and tail in what you wrote in Russian when translated into English.
Here is what it says in English
Markus
Here try this one.
Guys, can you remember why the war in Ukraine began? So I'll remind you. President Yanukovych refused to sign documents on rapprochement with the European Union at the last moment. The conditions were very unprofitable for Ukraine. And immediately a "Maidan" (revolution) broke out in this country. Then President Yanukovych agreed to resign and resign from office so that war would not unleashed. The guarantors of this agreement were Germany and France. But they deceived him and started killing people in Kiev, Yanukovych fled to Russia and Poroshenko came to power and signed these agreements with the European Union. Immediately Victoria Nuland came to Ukraine and fed people euro cookies. Donbass refused to cooperate with Kiev and recognize Poroshenko's power. Who came to her in a non-legitimate way. Poroshenko instead of a police operation in Donbass, preferred a military operation and led troops against part of his de facto people. War broke out in Donbass. Russia provides humanitarian assistance to Donbass and sends hum convoys to this region. Ukraine declared a trade blockade to Donbass and officially banned the import of goods from Ukraine into Donbass and withdrew its national currency from this region. If it hadn't been for Russia, there would have been hunger here.
Now Ukraine is in the bondage of the European Union (this is my personal opinion). Chernozem, amber deposits, forest from western Ukraine began to be exported from this country almost immediately, military production was stopped and destroyed and much more. All this is transported to Europe almost for nothing.
I have a question. What does Russia have to do with it?
Russia has everything to do with it. NATO needs Russia as an adversary to justify its existence, Russia must be seen as the devil’s grandmother. Though I can see one day Russia having to choose to join NATO to counter those Chicoms in the east. You got to admit Russia has a truckload of untapped resources China would love to claim. But right now by inviting Russia’s satellite countries we are basically removing Russia’s bargaining chips. Makes it easier to see things our way when they choose to join NATO ;)
The main reason to why I created this thread was that I read, as mentioned at start-Russia accuse NATO to prepare for war against them.
I have nothing against Russia, NATO, USA or some other country.
I'm wondering why this accusation ?
NATO is as I see it in no way capable to fight a full scale war with Russia.
Markus
Aktungbby
12-28-21, 04:34 PM
NATO as I see it, is in no way capable of a full-scale war with RussiaProbably 'cause there's no Adolph or Napoleon to lead'm to glorious victory over Russian "General Winter" on the endless steppes...:o:oops::dead: & I seriously doubt the "third time would be the charm"!:shucks::ping::ping:...and those two jaspers had a reasonably unified Europe before even commencing their respective empire-ending futile disastrous attempts. And NATO, these days, ain't even close!:hmph::O:
Following is part of an article. It's about the phone call between Biden and Putin later today Thursday.
At the same time, Putin has demanded that Ukraine must never become part of NATO and that NATO must withdraw its forces from Eastern Europe.
This applies to countries such as the former Soviet republics of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, as well as Poland, the Czech Republic and Romania. Countries that until 1989 were part of the Soviet bloc.
All these countries are today members of NATO
How steadfast are the Russians on these two points?
NATO can never agree to leave countries like Poland, Romania a.s.o.
Markus
Skybird
12-29-21, 06:51 PM
Additionally to the reasons by Putin that I posted above, I think he plays it the way he does also because of one obvious fact: he does not take Biden serious. Biden was weighed and found too light. Russia currently is not afraid of the US. Nor seems China to be. And Europe? Europe does not even count, I think.
The latest Zirkon missile tests by Russia should really concern everbody in the West. They have the potential to let the maritime strategy of the US navy collapse. That both Russia and China have such weapons, is not good.
Additionally to the reasons by Putin that I posted above, I think he plays it the way he does also because of one obvious fact: he does not take Biden serious. Biden was weighed and found too light. Russia currently is not afraid of the US. Nor seems China to be. And Europe? Europe does not even count, I think.
The latest Zirkon missile tests by Russia should really concern everbody in the West. They have the potential to let the maritime strategy of the US navy collapse. That both Russia and China have such weapons, is not good.
As I wrote
The American part of NATO is military strong but with a weak administration in the White House.
Markus
Jimbuna
12-30-21, 06:58 AM
Additionally to the reasons by Putin that I posted above, I think he plays it the way he does also because of one obvious fact: he does not take Biden serious. Biden was weighed and found too light. Russia currently is not afraid of the US. Nor seems China to be. And Europe? Europe does not even count, I think.
The latest Zirkon missile tests by Russia should really concern everbody in the West. They have the potential to let the maritime strategy of the US navy collapse. That both Russia and China have such weapons, is not good.
Agreed :yep:
Biden and Putin had a chat yesterday. They used diplomacy when discussing Ukraine and Eastern Europe.
In plain English-It didn't solve anything this phone conversation they had-In fact it has worsen(Said by a Danish expert on US-Russian relationships)
Markus
Jimbuna
12-31-21, 01:08 PM
Russia's Vladimir Putin has warned his US counterpart Joe Biden that imposing new sanctions over Ukraine could lead to a complete breakdown in relations.
In a phone call late on Thursday, the Russian president said such sanctions would be a "colossal mistake".
Mr Biden, meanwhile, told Mr Putin that the US and its allies would respond decisively to any invasion of Ukraine.
The call, requested by Russia, was the pair's second such conversation this month and lasted for almost an hour.
It marked the latest effort to defuse tensions over Ukraine's eastern border with Russia, where Ukrainian officials say more than 100,000 Russian troops have been sent.
The build-up has prompted concern in the West, with the US threatening Mr Putin with sanctions "like none he's ever seen" if Ukraine comes under attack.
Russia, however, denies it is planning to invade the country and says the troops are there for exercises. It says it is entitled to move its troops freely on its own soil.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-59832722
Jim this thread becomes more and more Ukraine related so maybe a merge with my other thread Ukraine once more-would be a good thing.
Your decision
Markus
Jimbuna
12-31-21, 01:32 PM
Threads merged.
Thank you.
I've got more fear than hope when it comes to war Vs peace in Ukraine.
If Putin decide to invade, it will most likely happens after their New Years eve.
Markus
Thank you.
I've got more fear than hope when it comes to war Vs peace in Ukraine.
If Putin decide to invade, it will most likely happens after their New Years eve.
Markus
That's a pretty safe bet seeing as how it's NYE already Markus! Really putting yourself out on a limb with the prognostications eh? :):03:
That's a pretty safe bet seeing as how it's NYE already Markus! Really putting yourself out on a limb with the prognostications eh? :):03:
They celebrate two NYE the new one 31th of December and their old 13th of Jan. It's after the latter I fear Putin will invade.
But I have also hope that Putin will see it leads to nothing if his forces invade Ukraine.
Markus
They celebrate two NYE the new one 31th of December and their old 13th of Jan. It's after the latter I fear Putin will invade.
But I have also hope that Putin will see it leads to nothing if his forces invade Ukraine.
Markus
:up:
:up:
Why I fear an invasion of Ukraine or part of it is What type of response NATO and EU will come up with.
And it ain't military response-It will be a massive economical answer=Sanction/boykot
Has a country stopped it's military operation after threat of economical sanction or boykot. Here I'm thinking on Iraq.
So now you know why I fear it.
Edit
forgot to mention something.
EU and NATO in Europe is weak and so is the Biden administration-The American military is very strong-but with a weak administration in the White house-it's weak.
AND Putin know this.
End edit
Markus
Skybird
01-03-22, 12:08 PM
Now it becomes clear what Putin wants.
https://www-dw-com.translate.goog/de/meinung-jetzt-wird-klar-was-putin-will/a-60307260?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de
Now it becomes clear what Putin wants.
https://www-dw-com.translate.goog/de/meinung-jetzt-wird-klar-was-putin-will/a-60307260?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de
So It looks like I'm right on spot when I wrote in my last comment
"EU and NATO in Europe is weak and so is the Biden administration-The American military is very strong-but with a weak administration in the White house-it's weak.
AND Putin know this."
Markus
So It looks like I'm right on spot when I wrote in my last comment
"EU and NATO in Europe is weak and so is the Biden administration-The American military is very strong-but with a weak administration in the White house-it's weak.
AND Putin know this."
Markus
Yeah but no more mean tweets from the White House. That's something!
Catfish
01-03-22, 01:55 PM
^ that's indeed better.
After all it all boils down on declarations, promises and treaties.
The unification of Germany was agreed to Russia NATO would hold back expanding eastward. As we all know the falldown of the russian soviet state was used to do exactly that, breaking the promise.
I do not like it, but Russia/Putin has a point.
If anyone in the west decides to make Ukraine a Nato member Putin will rather invade it first.
If the west holds back letting former soviet buffer states become NATO members there is no reason for an invasion, for Russia.
Understandable.
So why not guarantee to not let Ukraine become a NATO member?
^ that's indeed better.
After all it all boils down on declarations, promises and treaties.
The unification of Germany was agreed to Russia NATO would hold back expanding eastward. As we all know the falldown of the russian soviet state was used to do exactly that, breaking the promise.
I do not like it, but Russia/Putin has a point.
If anyone in the west decides to make Ukraine a Nato member Putin will rather invade it first.
If the west holds back letting former soviet buffer states become NATO members there is no reason for an invasion, for Russia.
Understandable.
So why not guarantee to not let Ukraine become a NATO member?
Ukraine shall not become a NATO member. But they need some type of support and I'm not talking about morally support, as the Danish minister of Defence said Denmark would give Ukraine if Russia attack them.
Europe and NATO need to show Putin an united and strong togetherness in military terms. I'm convince that showing him this will make him think 3,4,5 times before giving the marsh order.
(Could be wrong though-ain't no expert on Russian mentality)
Markus
Catfish
01-03-22, 02:40 PM
So why not publicly declare that Ukraine will not become a NATO member?
This is the guarantee Putin wants he has publicly and more than once said this.
If western leaders want to appear united and strong and they cannot even make that statement, there is no further need for discussion.
So why not publicly declare that Ukraine will not become a NATO member?
This is the guarantee Putin wants he has publicly and more than once said this.
If western leaders want to appear united and strong and they cannot even make that statement, there is no further need for discussion.
Which Biden should do-Call Putin and promise him, that Ukraine will not become a member in decades.
The problem here is-There is politicians in other NATO countries who want Ukraine to become a member of NATO(I'm convince there is)
You could say NATO is weak in its construction, when it face an opponent as strong as NATO is.
HA I know the solution.
Why not let Russia become a member of NATO ??-Seriously I mean it.
Markus
Catfish
01-03-22, 02:51 PM
So what you and others say it is not Russia's fault?
We have to keep in mind that Gorbatchev and the USSR are no more, so one (the west) could argue any promise or treaty made in 1989 is null and void.
German chancellor Kohl who also promised that the unification of Germany would not lead to an eastern expanse of NATO, is no more.
So all promises or such ever given can only apply to one leadership interval?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/23/vladimir-putin-russian-president-ukraine-analysis
This is Putin's own writing, i take it at least some western leaders should thoroughly read it. It is not that Putin tries to hide anything:
http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/66181
Skybird
01-03-22, 03:23 PM
The opinion piece I linked to, confirmed what I say since years. The time when NATO pushes for making the ukraine a NATO member is the time when Russia will go to full war, invade the Ukraine and take it all by force - before any NATO contingents could be offically stationed there.
Not so sure about Georgia, but I tend to think similiar about it. Georgia does not have the same strategic relevance as the Ukraine has, but shifting towards NATO membership nevertheless is a smbolically overcharged tunring point for the Russians and I think as long as Putin sees Europe weak and the US leadership as impotent, he would not let it happen and would play "all in". Who would stop him, and how...?
The German role in all this is just awful. Scholz already tries to rub noses with the Russians again, and it was Germany that prevented Europe to deliver the Ukraine potent weapons to fight for itself. France is not any better, protecting China and Riussia from Western pressure like Germany does. A Russia that has "opponents" like this, does not need victories anymore - it already has marked all its scores.
Putin scanned, Putin laid in ambush, and now that a breach opened, he rushed into it with force and determination. And no, he is not bluffing.
He does not need to bluff.
Biden's reply, as far as known in the public from media reporting, is lame and neither impresses the Russians, nor reassures the Ukrainians. Maybe he should have stayed in bed. US sanctions? Hehe, the Russians laugh, but such sanctions will take Europe as hostage, the US threat is more a threat for European economies than for Russia's. When will the West finally understand it: YOU CANNOT BLACKMAIL RUSSIA WITH ECONOMIC SANCTIONS, its too autark in energy, and food. And what do financial threats mean in an age when central banks have rendered the term "money" a hollow phrase, a pointless shell? The Russians have pushed their gold reserves to the highest standing ever, and last year accelerated the monthly buying of gold again. They see the mounting inflation in the West, and go into real values. Between 25 and 30% of their monetarian reserves they hold in gold, and they hold no relevant ammounts of dollars anymore.
Compare: Germany does not get its gold back from the safes in New York. When the Germans some years ago wanted to relocate even just a fraction of "their" treasure back to germany, the Americans just denied that, and gave out only a fraction of that fraction. When the Germans demanded to take a look at the physical reserves to assure the German gold still is there, the Americans denied to allow access. Their foul excuses were most obvious to everybody with eyes to see and ears to listen.
The German gold is no more there, that simple it is. It has been sued up for other purposes by the American governments. Like the German 1+ trillion in target-2 credit money for Euro-debtors never will be paid back to Germany either. If you need money, take it from the Germans. They are so stupid and lame that you can do everything with them. Thats why I no more say the German state holds the second biggest gold reserve after the US. The Germans have no gold anymore. The Americans took it away, and Germany is too weak to do anything about it, that simple it is. It smiles about the foul play - to not being laughed about too loudly, and to not getting mocked too obviously.
Skybird gave another reason to why Russia will invade Ukraine.
Preventing it from becoming a NATO member.
Edit
In the next couples of days we can expect news that Russia has withdrawn troops from the border. Now you may think-What a relief war threat is over for now. Well the reason why Putin withdraw troops from the border is their holiday-Russia is also celebrating Russian Orthodox Christmas and NYE-Which is 6th and 13th Jan.
End edit
Markus
Here is a translated article from a Danish news paper.
The President of Finland uses the New Year's speech to speak out against Russia: "Finland has the freedom and opportunity to apply for membership of NATO, and we will use it if we feel it is necessary," said President Sauli Niinistö.
https://www-bt-dk.translate.goog/udland/100000-tropper-ved-graensen-nu-advarer-danmarks-venner-i-norden-rusland?_x_tr_sl=da&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=da
Markus
Aktungbby
01-04-22, 12:47 PM
The German role in all this is just awful
Compare: Germany does not get its gold back from the safes in New York. When the Germans some years ago wanted to relocate even just a fraction of "their" treasure back to germany, the Americans just denied that, and gave out only a fraction of that fraction. When the Germans demanded to take a look at the physical reserves to assure the German gold still is there, the Americans denied to allow access. Their foul excuses were most obvious to everybody with eyes to see and ears to listen.
The German gold is no more there, that simple it is. It has been sued up for other purposes by the American governments. Like the German 1+ trillion in target-2 credit money for Euro-debtors never will be paid back to Germany either. If you need money, take it from the Germans. They are so stupid and lame that you can do everything with them. Thats why I no more say the German state holds the second biggest gold reserve after the US. The Germans have no gold anymore. The Americans took it away, and Germany is too weak to do anything about it, that simple it is. It smiles about the foul play - to not being laughed about too loudly, and to not getting mocked too obviously. C'mon now! all that recycled dental gold with elevated mercury content is a toxic hazardous substance best kept in Ft Knox vaults...:arrgh!: https://article.scholarena.co/History-of-Nazi-Dental-Gold-From-Dead-Bodies-till-Swiss-Bank.pdf and that's only part of the "problem" https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/historical-book_from-nazis-to-refineries--how-switzerland-has-handled-the-world-s-gold/45037968 https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/historical-book_from-nazis-to-refineries--how-switzerland-has-handled-the-world-s-gold/45037968https://www.swissinfo.ch/resource/image/45037980/portrait_ratio3x4/280/374/e9b117a6b6d90233ee9b0c93f9296fd9/FAA785D1D793EEA4C7EB0C418DDA0BAE/salis_pieth_gold-laundering_cover.jpg Switzerland benefited from its neutrality during World War II by purchasing vast amounts of gold from Allied and Axis powers. It exchanged the precious metal for Swiss francs, the only free convertible currency at the time outside the American dollar. This trade benefitted Germany in particular, effectively turning Switzerland into an enabler of the German war effort. The Swiss acquired 79% of all German gold delivered to foreign countries, with 90% of that ending up in the Swiss National Bank and the remainder in commercial banks. It is believed that Swiss banks bought CHF1.7 billion ($1.7 billion) worth of Nazi gold, including gold that Germany plundered from the reserves of conquered countries, notably Austria, Belgium, the Netherlands and Norway. Some of this gold was confiscated from private persons or removed from victims of concentration camps. After the war, the burning question was how much Switzerland knew about the gold and when. The Alpine nation agreed to pay reparations worth CHF250 million and also promised to identify dormant accounts which were heirless.
C'mon now! all that recycled dental gold with elevated mercury content is a toxic hazardous substance best kept in Ft Knox vaults...:arrgh!:
You'd think they'd have plenty of gold seeing as how they welched on paying their NATO dues.
Jimbuna
01-05-22, 07:10 AM
After all it all boils down on declarations, promises and treaties.
The unification of Germany was agreed to Russia NATO would hold back expanding eastward. As we all know the falldown of the russian soviet state was used to do exactly that, breaking the promise.
I do not like it, but Russia/Putin has a point.
If anyone in the west decides to make Ukraine a Nato member Putin will rather invade it first.
If the west holds back letting former soviet buffer states become NATO members there is no reason for an invasion, for Russia.
Understandable.
So why not guarantee to not let Ukraine become a NATO member?
So why not publicly declare that Ukraine will not become a NATO member?
This is the guarantee Putin wants he has publicly and more than once said this.
If western leaders want to appear united and strong and they cannot even make that statement, there is no further need for discussion.
Just about sums it all up for me :yep:
Skybird
01-05-22, 07:53 AM
Unfortunately Putin wants more, and would take such a declaration on the Ukraine as a sign of wekaness inviting him to puish for more. Its appeasement, and it will not work.
Russia has an aggressive military threat potential assemblked in the Kaliningrad enclave.
Putin has recently demanded that the Wets shozud, nto only give up the Ukraione, but also the Baltic states and all miluitrary engagement on soil of Eastenr European NATO members like Poland, Czech Republic.
Meanwhiole a helpless Biden vaguels hints at more of wehat has not worke dint he past: sanctions. For that he needs European full cooperaiton, else they will not work. Europeans are split and divided over this step. Putin knows that, and counts on Germany and France. Thats the Germany that opened more gas-dsitrubtion lines to Russia, leading Europe deeper into dependency like it has lead Europe into dependency from Turkey over migration issues. Thats the France that will not confront Germany over its gas policy, since in return France got what it wanted for itself: green nuclear energy licenses by the EU's central committee. If the US goes all in against a disobedient Europe not submitting to an American sanction regime, it will cost the European banks and economy dearly.
What we should do, is this:
Not react to Russian demands.
Silently not bringing the Ukraine into NATO, wihtout making a big tamtam about this. Just not doing it. But selling the Ukrainepotent weapons that would command the Russians to pay a very high price if invading the Ukraine.
Bringing NATO's - that means in the main: Europe's -combat capabilities into shape an dorder.
Fortifying the NATO's Eastenr borders: not ushign them further Eastward, but amassing defences , forces there.
Stationing new American tactcial nuclear missiles. It seems this currently is being mulled or is already done.
Cpounteirng Kaliningrad with building substantial strikign capabilites to take its hueg arsenals of msisiles, nuclear missiles and aircraft out.
The Russians always have undersotod just one language, and this language alone: strength. Try to communciate with them not from a position of own strength, and you have already llst - they will simply lie to you and push you against the wall.
Oh, and Norstream 2. I am realistic, and saw myself forced to drastically chnage my view of it. Two things should be done here: NS2 should not go into work anymore, and the existing pipelines thorugn the Ukraine and Poland should be taken down, too. I am not sure to what degree and how these gas deliveries can be replaced. We have to find ways.
Another argument why we should build nuclear powerplants. Germany's special wa yhere is a lonely way, an infantile way, a stupid way - and different to what the Germans hoped for, nobody follows them. Severla of its neighbours instead plan to go into nculeart energy, or to deepen their stand in nculear energy. Which in the future will save Germany's (and Austria's) electric future. Austria is as hypocritical, if not more, as Germany is: it buys tremedous ammounts of nuclear energy from its neighbours, but agitates extremely aggressively against the use of nuclear energy. Sawing off the legs of the chair one sits on...
In general: we should not move further towards Russia's borders. But we should not give one inch of ground and stop wanting to appease them at the same time. What Putin wants is a reastablishing of the status before 1989, even geographically. This is unacceptable. He wants to turn back time by over 30 years. We should neither honour nor reward this attempt in any form. But now that bubble.-Olaf in chancellor, any appeasement seems possible. It will be interesting to see how far the Greens' masochism will lead leading, Baerbocks and Schol'z positions are practically incompatible, but the chnacellor has the "Richtlinienkompetenz", so in theory this internal German powerstruggle already is decided: and Putin won.
Aktungbby
01-05-22, 11:35 AM
I'm no Winston...but R we talkin "Iron Curtain" rejuvenation here?!!9:doh::ping::ping::doh:
Skybird
01-05-22, 12:08 PM
A red line we talk of. If that is an iron curtain, I'm fine with that.
NATO interceptors last year had to scramble some 270 times in alarm over the Baltic region. Thats on 3 of 4 days, on average. The biggest number since pre-1989. I think its high time to show them when enogh is enough and where their overstepping of said red lines will be answered not with volleys of words, but missiles. I am no longer convinced they know where that line is, or that there is any at all.
However I also wonder if Western politicians know either that there are red lines they should defend, no matter the cost.
Or that at least there should be.
Putin openly threatens several NATO members, namely the Baltic states. What else must happen before Europeans understand ? The Russian flag flying over Riga? Armoured spearheads appearing in Klaipeda?Polish general mobilization?
Catfish
01-10-22, 06:49 AM
Again, i do not think Putin is dumb. You have to see that he does not want an armed NATO state directly at Russia's borders.
Did the US accept an armed soviet state like Cuba at their borders back then?
Why not have neutral (or at least not NATO or Russian pact nations) between the blocs? A kind of security cordon everyone could live with? Why are you so keen of expanding the NATO eastwards?
After all this question led to the splitting of Germany after WW2. Russia wanted Germany to become a neutral state, the US was against it. No joke, look at the history.
So Putin threatens neighbour states not to become NATO allies, in that case he may act, and in this moment no one can prevent it when it comes to Ukraine. As long as they remain neutral or at least do not join any military pact there is no threat to either side.
So why not make some Realpolitik deal. Russia promises not to invade Ukraine, NATO promises to not further (Poland already IS a member) let direct neighbours of Russia (like Ukraine) into the NATO; a kind of guarantee of the status quo.
This might work as long as both sides are being serious.
Some more background, german:
https://www.tagesschau.de/faktenfinder/nato-erweiterung-mittel-ost-europa-101.html
^ same in english via Google translate:
https://www-tagesschau-de.translate.goog/faktenfinder/nato-erweiterung-mittel-ost-europa-101.html?_x_tr_sl=de&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de
^ I think that would be a great idea.
However Russia wants more. they want NATO to leave Poland and Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania as well.
https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-unveils-security-guarantees-says-western-response-not-encouraging-2021-12-17/
Markus
Skybird
01-10-22, 08:07 AM
Not certain, but are you talking to me? If so, I made my points in the two posts before.
The neutrality belt sounds good, I argued for it myself in a way, and several times over the years, but I think it now is unrealistic. Putin wants more because he sees the chance to get more.
The US is shifting attention to the Pacific, and it lacks the ability (and has realised that) to be omnipresent just everywhere. The Middle East feels the fallout from that, and I expect it to become less loyal to the US over time therefore. Europe feels it, obviously. For regimes like Russia, Iran, Turkey, NKorea this is the time now to test the faiding power of the US in their interest spheres again and again, seeing how far now they can go. Its the reason why Iran has started to play tough against Europe's wanted mild-washing of nuclear things. The US is locking up increasingly in its conflict with China, and necessarily it needs to give room in former zones of interest, therefor. The more ressources it invests into its upcoming confrontation with China, the more these ressources must be taken from other global areas - they are not infinite, even if the US wants to make everbyody believe they are. The US can no longer defend all and everything. It just cannot be done. The US military already now is overstretched.
Europe must learn this, and it better learns it pronto.
Appeasing Russia has never worked in the past, and does not in the present. Wandel durch Handel never worked as well, not in Russia, not in Iran, not in Turkey, not in China. The German foreign policy is a totally collapsed desaster. The Russians only respect power and strength, and once they are somewhere, its incredibly difficult to get rid of them again.
Your desire for reasonability and rationals in all honours, Catfish, but thats just not what the Big Game is about. I wish it would be like that, too, it would suit my own rationals better, too. But I am realistic enough to see that things dont work that way. Because the leaderships are made not of Vulcans, but narcissists with psychopathic personality structures and feudal self-understanding. World politics is not so much a game of Chess, but Poker.
We should not push further East, indeed. But we must confront Russia'S ambition to push westwards by itself. In the Baltic. In the Kaliningrad enclave area. In the Ukraine. Else Russia will not have a pushing NATO at its borders, but NATO will have a pushing Russia on Europe's borders. Russia openly threatens the three small Baltic states, the Ukraine, Poland, Czech Republic, Romania, Bulgaria, all the former Sovjet Union vasalls should be be brought back home into the embrace of the Sovjet empire. Things should become what they have been before 1989. Putin has once said something like that the fall of the USSR was the biggest desaster world history has witnessed ever. Many Russians seem to share that view. You better take his words literally - he means it, and lives by it, and thus his drive to "correct" this mistake. Its a Restauration what he wants.
What Russian promises are worth you can see over the gas troubles currently. I have defended Russia'S rational interest long time myself and still say we must see things from their perspective if we want to forsee their actions, instead of demanding them to act by our own interests (which would be stupid by them), but I had to realise that the Russia of the present no longer follows the example it set for contract loyalties during the cold war (they always honoured their economic contract obligations, even at the height of the cold war), but has shown that it no longer minds to erode such contracts. I therefore was forced to alter my views of it, and take a much tougher stand now, including rejecting NS2. Russia wants to drive a wedge between North Amrica and Europe, and it wants to destablise Eurpopean sdtates and societies, by cyber atacks, by political and media campaigns, by estalbishing fifth columns and a network of pro-.Russian lobbyists and interfering with Western elections. As a matter of fact they already wage war against the West. And in the past we would have realised that and would have reacted and we would have a military war already as a consequence. But tired of world wars and degenrated as our cultural conetxts are, we instead fall back and want to hybernate in a state of submissive Chamberlainism.
Georgia and Ukraine cannot become NATO members, its stupid to poke the pencil into the Russian bear's eye this way. But we should sell them the military weapons they need to defend themselves against Russia, if they wish to buy such weapons and see the need to do so (and mind you, usually I say we should not think of arms and military itemsas legitimate traiding goods at all). And over the Baltic and the Kaliningrad enclace, we have no other choice than to become much more confronting and determined. Those are no "neutral states", but NATO member states. And if Russia overrolls the three small Baltic states in hybrid warfare like it has taken the Crimean, NATO lacks the means and political will to retake them. Therefore we shall not allow them to get lost in the first.
You will see that beefing up our combat readiness massively and setting a red line at the borders will keep the Russians away. Thats the language they understand and respect. They will go on parade on their side of the fence and will drum all bongos they have - but they will not attack if they think we mean it serious and if they see we have the capability to inflict seriosu wounds on them in case they go too far. - THAT would be Realpolitik as you asked for. ;)
Instead not even European governments are united and can agree on anything related to Russia, only cheap phrases that everybody and all sides know mean little to nothing. Not to mention the rift between these Europeans, and the US. No wonder if Russia keeps pushing: the opportunity is cheap and inviting and promsing and ripe with chances.
Skybird wrote
"but they will not attack if they think we mean it serious and if they see we have the capability to inflict serious wounds on them in case they go too far. - THAT would be Realpolitik as you asked for. "
One thing that you have a gun another thing is the will to use it and by following the news here I get the impression that EU and NATO hope that by threatening of economical sanction will make Putin think twice.
It wouldn't surprise me if NATO agree on some of Russia's terms.
(I hope I'm wrong)
Markus
Found this passage in a Danish article I have translated and posted in this comment
"However, NATO and the United States have previously said they will not respond militarily again to a Russian attack on Ukraine"
https://ekstrabladet-dk.translate.goog/nyheder/politik/krigen-truer-vi-spilder-tiden/9075567?_x_tr_sl=da&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=da
Markus
Jimbuna
01-10-22, 09:03 AM
Senior diplomats from the US and Russia are meeting in the Swiss city of Geneva for the first of a series of crunch talks aimed at defusing tension over Ukraine.
The stakes for these talks on Monday are high. But both sides hold wildly different expectations. The US and other Western powers want to dissuade Russia from invading Ukraine.
But Russia wants to talk about its maximalist demands for Nato to retreat from eastern Europe. It's calling for Nato to pull its forces out of former Soviet countries, end any eastern expansion and rule out Ukraine joining the alliance.
Some US officials fear these demands are deliberately unrealistic, designed to be rejected and used as a pretext for military action. Other diplomats believe Russian President Vladimir Putin is aiming high to squeeze concessions out of a Western alliance that is willing to give ground to avoid war.
They say the Russian president is effectively demanding an end to Europe's post-Cold War security architecture and the establishment of a Russian "sphere of influence".
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-59935990
< I had hopes I would be wrong when I wrote
"It wouldn't surprise me if NATO agree on some of Russia's terms."
Markus
Catfish
01-10-22, 10:33 AM
re Skybird all good and well and understandable. Never underestimate Russia and Putin's ideas of making Rusia great again (ahem), however what he has said and written up to now is more reasonable than anything i heard of NATO or the US.
Look at this chart and tell me what you see.
https://crp-infotec.de/wp-content/uploads/nato-mitglieder-aktuell.gif
Getting Ukraine into NATO would be a bit too much, don't you think so? Be realistic, the eastward expansion is a reality.
Of course we have the german wonder weapon Mrs Baerbock as a foreign minister, maybe some hope Putin laughs himself to death when they meet :03:
Skybird
01-10-22, 11:52 AM
Last year, on three different opportunities I think the Finnish government let it known that they could join NATO under certain circumstances.
It was clear to me at least that with "circumstances" they meant that if Russia starts to apply too threatening pressure up there and Finland starts to feel seriously threatened.
I am not certain whether memory fools me there or not, but I seem to recall that Sweden has indicated something similiar as well. The Swedish and Finish neutrality maybe is no longer carved in stone if "case X" turns out to become real.
Last year, on three different opportunities I think the Finnish government let it known that they could join NATO under certain circumstances.
It was clear to me at least that with "circumstances" they meant that if Russia starts to apply too threatening pressure up there and Finland starts to feel seriously threatened.
I am not certain whether memory fools me there or not, but I seem to recall that Sweden has indicated something similiar as well. The Swedish and Finish neutrality maybe is no longer carved in stone if "case X" turns out to become real.
You are so right Sir
The Finnish president’s traditional new year’s speech normally goes unnoticed outside his own country. But this year, Sauli Niinistö’s remarks led the Financial Times to run a story headlined “Finland insists on its right to join NATO in defiance of Russia”.
https://ecfr.eu/article/between-russia-sweden-and-nato-finlands-defence-of-sovereignty-equality/
The Swedish government has set up a committee to examine the pros and cons of NATO membership. This happened in the spring of 2018.
Haven't heard anything from it since then.
Markus
Seems like Putin has taken the first victory in the meeting with USA
(Translated Danish article)
Today, Russia and the United States meet to discuss Ukraine - but Putin has already taken the first victory step
https://www-dr-dk.translate.goog/nyheder/udland/i-dag-moedes-rusland-og-usa-diskutere-ukraine-men-putin-har-allerede-taget-foerste?_x_tr_sl=da&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=da
Markus
Rockstar
01-11-22, 05:42 PM
The Taliban were just equipped with modern weapons in Afghanistan. NATO wants to place missiles in Ukraine. And ‘somebody’ just destabilized the hell out of Kazakhstan.
Putin has a lot to contend with but taking a victory lap isn’t one of them.
Here's Putins view on this
From TASS
NEW YORK, January 10. /TASS/. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Sunday said Russia wants to resurrect the Soviet Union by gaining more influence over the former member states.
https://tass.com/politics/1385397
Markus
Rockstar
01-12-22, 10:01 AM
Here's Putins view on this
From TASS
https://tass.com/politics/1385397
Markus
To clarify what you quoted above is Blinken’s view.
Below is Putin’s view from your linked article.
Putin said in June that restoration of the Soviet Union made no sense and would be impossible and unadvisable due to certain demographic, social and ethnic issues.
IMO it’s those same demographic, social and ethnic issues which Putin says makes it impossible to resurrect the Soviet Union, NATO is using to put pressure on Putin.
^ I stand corrected.
Got a bad feeling about this.
Edit
I think I understand why Blinken/NATO think Putin will re-establish Soviet.
One of Putins steadfast demands is that NATO shall leave Eastern Europe-Leave Poland, Estonia, Letland and so on.
End edit
Markus
Jimbuna
01-12-22, 12:41 PM
Could also lead to the EU bonding together in a military sense out of pure self need.
US intelligence indicates Russia preparing operation to justify invasion of Ukraine
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/01/14/politics/us-intelligence-russia-false-flag/index.html
Markus
Skybird
01-15-22, 05:50 AM
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/01/14/politics/us-intelligence-russia-false-flag/index.html
Markus
Crimean deception games 2.0 . This time maybe little blue men, for a change? And a massive cyber campaign in the Ukraine - and further West...? :hmmm:
Jimbuna
01-15-22, 06:11 AM
Crimean deception games 2.0 . This time maybe little blue men, for a change? And a massive cyber campaign in the Ukraine - and further West...? :hmmm:
BBC take of the above.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-59998988
Got the feeling that it's not a question about if, but a question about when
Markus
Rockstar
01-15-22, 10:19 AM
Got the feeling that it's not a question about if, but a question about when
Markus
Biden has already unwisely stated he would not resort to using overt military action. On the other hand having amassed 100,000 troops at the border ,conducting daily live fire exercise it appears the Russians have not taken anything off the table.
What ever Russia is up too, after Biden’s statements, they’re probably thinking they can get away with it ‘again’. Because at the end of the day, the Russians have a significant quantity of oil and gas, and there are many people who want to buy it and who see sanctions on Russia, which would drive up the price of those consumables, as being not good for their national interests, even if it’s at the expense of Ukraine.
Skybird
01-15-22, 10:45 AM
Comparing to how the exclusion of Iran from SWIFT has damaged their eocnomy very hurtfully, the question is what damage it would to to Russia, and at what costs to US-European "ties". Russia, China and some other former Sovjet republics have formed an altemative system to SWIFT, but it is nowehre near to beign able to replace it.
The costs for Europe would be tremednous if agreeing with the Americna threat (Russia would stirke back via gas), and would be tremendous if confrinting the US, which would result in all out eocnomic war between Europe and the US, and could unleash a financial meltdown. In other words, Europe once again has drawn the azz card. Selber schuld.The dilemma is home-made.
USA split and divided. The UK busy with Johnson - The Soap Opera. France before elections. Germany a left coaltion and weak and Russophile in parts. Europe in gas price frenzy.
Sounds like a good oppoetunity for Russia to provoke something. Almost a sin it would be to let it go by unused.
Onkel Neal
01-15-22, 11:13 AM
Wasn't the Ukraine part of Russia prior to WWI?
The US needs to stay out of this.
Skybird
01-15-22, 12:06 PM
Yes, Russian claim is not just actual geopolitics, but historic identity as well.
Yes, the US must stay out militarily anyway, and I am not certain on how far sanctions can do anything and should even be tried. I dont know. So far, sanctions have made Russia stronger, not weaker, because it learned to adapt by becoming even more independent in food production. It also has dumped its dollar reserves, and still buys gold like crazy.
And Europe? Is deeply divided and has no meaningful options anyway. As so often. And they wonder why Russia wants them to be excluded in talks. Not enoguh weight, that is the simple answer.
The US agreed to deliver another 200 millions worth of small firearms like assault rifles and ammunition. What would be needed, imo at least, are SAM shoulderpads and Panzerfaust-style and Milan-style ATGMs. These could make an invasion very costly.
Germany offered medikits, blankets, and words of good will. It still tries to block Europe from delivering any weapons at all.
I see the Ukraine as a still corrupt oligarchic regime, and in this regard as a failed state, so to speak. They are bogged down since - sinc ehow long now? Long beofre the Crimean invasion, certainly. We may see moral arguments there. But we cannot have real practical reasons to get involved too deeply. Military intervention is completely out of the question. Assistance for boosting their self-defence, equipment, weapons, okay. But our focus must be in the Baltic, and maybe on the Balkans. Here is where we really must set red lines and even be willing confront Russia in the air, on the ground, on the sea.
And Europe must - non-militarily - confront China in Europe, too. So it has its hands full and its homeworks set out even without the Ukraine conflict already.
Read something interesting in a Danish article-It was about the weather...in Eastern Ukraine and the temp. for the next 4-6 days is frost. 5 to 20 degree below zero. Thereafter the temp. will rise above zero.
So what make this interesting.
Now when the temp is below zero the ground is hard and can carry heavy tanks and other heavy vehicle.
The week thereafter with temp above zero the soil will be muddy.
I guess if Putin are planning on invading it will come between Monday and Wednesday.
It could also come in the spring-I doubt it. Keeping soldiers at high alert cost.
And as Skybird said a few times-Putin will not withdraw his troops again.
(I could be wrong-I truly hope I'am)
Markus
Catfish
01-15-22, 07:09 PM
The threat of a nuclear strike would probably be a stopper for Russia.
The threat of a nuclear strike would probably be a stopper for Russia.
Which country would threaten Russia with nukes if they start to invade Ukraine ?
I say the west would rather see Ukraine being invaded than engage Russia on the battlefield. Yes NATO may give some kind of assistance to Ukraine-But it will not be boots on the ground or air born support.
Markus
Catfish
01-15-22, 07:32 PM
^ Then which 'support' is this?
NATO should rather agree that Ukraine does not become a NATO member, than to let it be invaded by Russia.
In which (latter) case NATO already said it will do nothing. What kind of answer is this?
A nuclear strike is of course unrealistic, but imho it would be the only answer that works for a free Ukraine not to be invaded by Russia.
And if NATO lets this happen you can guess which country will be next.
^ Personally I say that Ukraine shall not become a member of NATO.
It can cooperate with NATO like Sweden and Finland does.
If you could read Swedish then you would read stuff like
Huge caravan of tanks and other vehicle on it's way to Nynäshamn to be transported to Gotland.
Sweden think Gotland would be next.
Here is what it is written on Swedish telefax
"Increased military presence on Gotland
The Armed Forces is strengthening its presence on Gotland. This was confirmed for SVT on Saturday.
We will be in the places where we are needed most, says Therese Fagerstedt, Swedish Armed Forces
press secretary, to SVT News
The increased efforts are part of the "contingency adjustment" that is underway due to the security policy situation. Several military transports arrived on Gotland on Friday and
Saturday. Other coastal stretches in the country have also strengthened, according to DN.
Hultqvist: Attacks can not be ruled out
On the night before Saturday, soldiers and military vehicles arrived on Gotland.
Minister of Defense Peter Hultqvist (S) tells SR: s Ekot that there are also reinforcements in the rest of the country.
-It is important to show that we are not naive. Sweden will not be taken to bed if anything happens. It is
important to mark and send signals that we take this situation seriously.
When asked by Ekot if there is a real risk of an attack on Gotland, Hultqvist answers:
-It is clear that there is a risk. An attack on
Sweden can not be excluded.
"
Markus
blackswan40
01-15-22, 08:35 PM
The E.U. and Nato missed the bus on this one they should have made the Ukrine a full member of E.U. and Nato and the west would'nt be in the situation we are in now.
After Mr Putin invades the Ukrine would that be the end of is march westwards and he has no more teritorial claims that sounds rater familiar don't it just.
Then Russian forces invade the Baltic States Estonia Lithuania Latvia and also Finland like the Russians did in 1940.
Would there be a military responce from Nato other than diplomatic hot air language.
Then Putin Pushes is luck some more pushes into Poland as far as Brest Litvosk like when the Germans and the Russians met in September 1939 when between them they carved up Poland or Russia takes all of Poland
with no responce from Nato due to no political will France Germany dither then Putin demands East Germany back.
is it a European problem Uncle Sam needs to keep out of this one is that flawed thinking but what if the Krazy Ivan then wants Alaska Back if you dont agree to my demands I Mr Putin will put hyper sonic misiles in Cuba what then that would be a fox in the hen coup for sure.
If war comes the British will be writing war songs with whoops bumpsadaisy and tickertyboo in the corus for sure :D
Skybird
01-16-22, 06:50 AM
The West "missed the bus" much earlier, that was when thinking that history had come to an end (Fukuyama) after the cold war was "won" and one thought one could afford to ignore the Russians and one crept NATO eastward after giving them verbal reassurances and promises that exactly this would not be done if they would play ball and agree to a neutral buffering zone build by former Sovjet vasalls. That was one of their preconditions to play ball, and American and Western diplomats verbally reassured them that this would be honoured. when The Bsaltic sttaes and Poland asked for emmberhsip, they could ask, but the Wets had any right there is not only to say yes, but also to say No. And the latter was what maybe we should have done as long as the Russians honoured their part of this "gentlemen's agreement". Instead, we cheated therm. This betrayal, as the Russians - imo rightfully - see this, was not just a geopolitical weakening of Russia (which was known and wanted in Washington), and a loss of face and reputationb and thus a nice opportunity to take "revenge" for whatever, but also a big narcissistic offence, an injuring of their selfunderstanding that really hurt their ego. And it was completely unneeded. Russia was down for quiet some years, it was weak. We should have swallowed our laughter and feelings of triumph, but step back and leave them the time to get their acts together without us abuzsing their wekaness. There was an opportunity to not only sow some seeds, but also maybe seeing them blossoming, who knows, but Western capitols decided that it was not enough, they wanted more. I remidn of that in the years when Pution had took over form drunken Yeltzin, his politics towards Europe were VERY differently, and in the West he was celebrated as a new Alexander who sought to close ranks with Europe. After his speech - in German, if I recall correctly, in the Bundestag, hearts flew to him. And I think he meant serious what he offered. At leats he had the hpe that it could work. And then came the big Russian desillusionizing.
And here we are where we are today. Comepletly innocent in how things came, we are not. We certainly did your foul share, too.
Nevertheless, today we have no other chance anymore than to learn to play tough again.
We expected the Russians to endlessly be stupid and to endlessly act to their disadvantage. We thought Russian interests get lab-designed by Western philantropists and ideologoists and capitalistic predators, and that democracy would be a beacon that all world, also the islamic world, wants inevitably to follow. We were full of and we were drunk of ourselves, and we had made the idea that somebody does not want to share the shine of our glory, unimaginable. Iraq 2003 was a result of this overconfidence. Its beyond our comprehesion that maybe others do not share our self-definition of that we are the greatets, the finest, and the most admired ones. What many others indeed want, and only want fromus, is money. Our ideas they often wish we would keep for ourselves. That is especially true in the Islamic world.
That is no one-sided excusing of Russia that I want to do here. I just try to be realistic, and try to see things from their side, and try to see Wetsern self-defionition a bit more sober, and realistic. We do not define what Russia's interests were, and are, and we often define these Russian interests according to our selfinterests. And this, until today, is the biggest mistake we ever made with Russia. It hinders Europeans until today to realise what now angry and willing-to-fight beast they are now dealing with. Russia defines its interests all by itself, and it does not ask us for our approval. Its strong and autark enough not to need to.
There never was a realistic chance to bring the Ukraine into the EU or NATO. I say since many years that back in the past and now in the present, the starting of such an association process would inevitably bring the Russian into attack mode, they would and they will start a war before this process could ever be completed. That the Ukraine becomnes a NAOT member was unacceptable for them already back then, for reasons of strategy, identity, cult and culture, and history. Its like Russian missiles on Cuba - the US would never have accepted that. You want Russia to invade the Ukraine in full, now or back then? Starting to bring it into NATO is the 100% fail safe method to get what you want.
@ blackswan40
An interesting approach in how the development would proceed.
I don't think he will touch NATO member.
After he has invaded Ukraine I'm pretty sure he will aim at Gotland-Controlling this island and you control the Baltic sea. Finland will then be next.
Could also be the other way around-Finland 2nd then Gotland.
Or he is just interested in Ukraine and nothing more.
Markus
Skybird
01-16-22, 10:10 AM
Even ruthless Russia's military capacities are not unlimited, even if facing the Europeans only, without the US. ;) Lets not make them bigger than they are. They are big, but not THAT big. They can do what they now threaten to do.
To attack North and Middle and South Europe itself, that then again is another ball game, even with NATO now being the weakest ever. The huge Sowjet tank armies like in the cold war, are a thing of the past now, like huge numbers on Western sides are. What they can and would do is hybrid and cyber warfare instead. to throw Europeans off their feet and keep them busy with things in their own households. That way, they cnanot get into Russia'S way where Russia really aims at: the three small Baltic states, the Black Sea region, Balkans in parts, maybe, Ukraine.
I doubt that even in the cold war the Sovjets ever seriously planned to conquer central and Western Europe.
Rockstar
01-16-22, 11:11 AM
The E.U. and Nato missed the bus on this one they should have made the Ukrine a full member of E.U. and Nato and the west would'nt be in the situation we are in now.
After Mr Putin invades the Ukrine would that be the end of is march westwards and he has no more teritorial claims that sounds rater familiar don't it just.
Then Russian forces invade the Baltic States Estonia Lithuania Latvia and also Finland like the Russians did in 1940.
Would there be a military responce from Nato other than diplomatic hot air language.
Then Putin Pushes is luck some more pushes into Poland as far as Brest Litvosk like when the Germans and the Russians met in September 1939 when between them they carved up Poland or Russia takes all of Poland
with no responce from Nato due to no political will France Germany dither then Putin demands East Germany back.
is it a European problem Uncle Sam needs to keep out of this one is that flawed thinking but what if the Krazy Ivan then wants Alaska Back if you dont agree to my demands I Mr Putin will put hyper sonic misiles in Cuba what then that would be a fox in the hen coup for sure.
If war comes the British will be writing war songs with whoops bumpsadaisy and tickertyboo in the corus for sure :D
The Ukraine in NATO? No way, it is a violent corrupt system of government thanks to the people running it. Not only that right now The Ukraine can’t control what happens within its own borders it has no territorial integrity. If it were allowed to join NATO the situation would quickly escalate as NATO be then be obligated to defend that crap hole militarily and quickly dragged into a protracted guerrilla/civil war. Screw that.
Aktungbby
01-16-22, 11:22 AM
What interest me is that American news souces are intimating a Russian 'false flag' attack to justify the invasion of Ukraine as justifiable Russia is plotting to stage acts of provocation to create a pretext to invade Ukraine, a US official has said.
A Pentagon spokesman said Russian operatives were planning a "false-flag" operation, to allow Moscow to accuse Ukraine of preparing an attack. Russia has dismissed the claims.
It comes after a week of US-Russian talks aimed at defusing tensions.
Ukraine on Friday accused Russia of being behind a cyber-attack on dozens of official websites. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-59998988 This is right out of the Nazi playbook in 1939's Operation Himmler https://coffeeordie.com/operation-himmler/ https://coffeeordie.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/BRCC-OperationHimmlerCover.jpg On Aug. 31, the day prior to the declaration, American newspapers reported Polish insurgents and army troops clashed with the German police at the Gleiwitz radio station along the Polish-German border. The reporters arrived in the aftermath to witness a scene showing several dead corpses wearing Polish uniforms.
“The German News Agency reports the attack came at about 8pm this evening when the Poles forced their way into the studio and began broadcasting a statement in Polish,” the BBC Broadcast in London issued in a statement. “Within a quarter of an hour, say reports, the Poles were overpowered by German police who opened fire on them.” However, the attack was not carried out by willing Polish participants. It was part of a series of false-flag attacks that the Germans staged against themselves during a clever deception dubbed “Operation Himmler.” Nazi High Command used several “border incidents” to create the appearance of Polish aggression to justify Hitler’s invasion into Poland, sparking the beginning of World War II.
“I will provide a propagandistic casus belli,” Hitler told his generals on Aug. 22, 1939. “Its credibility doesn’t matter. The victor will not be asked whether he told the truth.”
Two separate raids occurred near the German village of Hochlinden and at a forestry office in Pitschen. Six prisoners were taken from the Sachsenhausen Concentration Camp, dressed in Polish military uniforms, and executed. The sophisticated and well-choreographed propaganda wing then spread the lies to the press. The Nazi High Command took the lessons they learned from previous border incidents and applied them to their most famous black propaganda raid in what became known as the Gleiwitz incident. Nuthin new here; Putin just wants his Iron Curtain 'baby blanket' back no IMHO 'bout it:hmmm: Wasn't the Ukraine part of Russia prior to WWI?
The US needs to stay out of this. Indeed; American cleanup of Europeaan WWI issues incl. 'Nam, China, Afghanistan, which all arise out of the collapsed Russian, British, and French 19th century empires, needs to be avoided. Russia is currently threatening to place retaliatory military assets in Venzuela ie: the Cuban missle crisis all over again. Were I the President, step one following the invasion of Ukraine would be to pull my ambassador from Moscow, declare all Russian diplomats non-grata and go to DEF-CON 2 ie: sabre-rattling on a grand scale; the only lingo Moscow comprehends... :ping::ping::ping:
Within the next week we will know, if Russia will invade or not.
Markus
Jimbuna
01-16-22, 02:35 PM
Fearing new Russian threat, Ukraine races to upgrade its navy
https://edition.cnn.com/2021/11/23/europe/ukraine-naval-base-russian-tensions-intl-cmd/index.html
Fat lot of use that would be.
blackswan40
01-16-22, 03:10 PM
best get some Polish Brickies on job :D
Meanwhile, the US is keeping a carrier group in the Ionian Sea, south of Istanbul, for- uhh- reasons. :03:
Skybird
01-16-22, 05:02 PM
The Ionian Sea is 900-1100 nautical miles from the Donbass region. Quote: "No one concerned or concerning, friend or otherwise, will see anything in the Ionian."
https://blog.usni.org/posts/2021/12/29/what-message-is-in-the-ionian-sea
Quote: "Make sure you have the right heat for the right appetite."
I am not convinced. But then, it is no US business anyway, at least it shouldn't be. Europe is called for deeds, not the US.
Aktungbby
01-16-22, 05:44 PM
Meanwhile, the US is keeping a carrier group in the Ionian Sea, south of Istanbul, for- uhh- reasons. :03:
That's simply "cutlass-rattling" as opposed to "sabre-rattling":doh::oops::dead:...one thing though: both Ol' Boney and Adoph screwed their respective pooches by engaging in winter warfare in Russia:hmmm: I marvel that Vladimir P. thinks mid-January will be good for him in UkraIne...:hmmm:
The Ionian Sea is 900-1100 nautical miles from the Donbass region. Quote: "No one concerned or concerning, friend or otherwise, will see anything in the It's all Greek to me too:O:!??
Aircraft carriers can move. They are good at that. :Kaleun_Wink:
The aircraft the aircraft carriers carry can also move. Really fast. :O:
Everybody is awaiting an invasion of Ukraine, Even myself expect this to happen very soon.
But what if the troops and material near the Ukrainian border is nothing but a very strong signal to the West(NATO and EU) Stay out of Ukraine or we will invade the country ?
Markus
Aktungbby
01-16-22, 06:51 PM
Aircraft carriers can move. They are good at that. :Kaleun_Wink:
The aircraft the aircraft carriers carry can also move. Really fast. :O:...for which China is developing the hypersonic anti-carrier missile with it's own dummy practice carrier somewhere in the middle of its desert... https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/i3wbdWZ01s9E/v0/800x-1.jpg
Skybird
01-16-22, 06:54 PM
Its pilots also can quickly bring boots on the the ground, once they got shot down. :O:
I am not the first pointing out that Russia probably has the strongest and deepest-layered aerial missile and interceptor defence in the world. Russian equipment in the Middle East operated by Arab crews, not trained Russians, should not be the standard by which to judge the systems technical efficiency. And I remind that Russia claism since years that its new radars have seriously degraded the stealth fighters efficiency to hide. Who wants to find out if that is true? I am not eager.
Much of the Ukraine, and beyond, is practically a Russian air and missile defence zone. Russian missiles of many kinds also reach far into Europe, last but not least from Kaliningrad.
This is not Libya, or the Iraq, or Afghanistan. Nor is it the technically disadvantaged Sovjet Union.
Most of NATO's aerial anti-tank-campaign in Yugoslavia fell for dummies, btw. Regarding reducing the combat readiness and efficiency of the Yugoslavian ground forces, it was a huge failure, the attacked Yugoslavian brigades retreated later practically fully integrated and in coordinated fashion, with small losses suffered, and and combat-ready. It was the bombing of civilian and industrial infrastructure that forced Yugoslavia to give up, not the damage done to its armed forces.
And still, this is an issue the Europeans must come to terms with. Its no American issue. And if Europe proves to be incapable to handle it, it only proves what everybody already knows anyway: that it is strong in words and weak in powers. Last but not least thanks to Germany, Europe has brought itself into such a hopeless dilemma that practically no good options are left. And that accusation goes beyond just Norstream 2.
We should have stuck with oil as long as needed, and never should have given up nuclear. Now we hope to have - Russian - gas as an interims solution after having scared away all investors. And we push for ever stronger climate goals and expensive costs while our private households and energy-intensive industries are facing threatening energy and gas prices. Vollpfosten. :doh: If Germany talks of sanctions, it is completely uncredible. Russia would retaliate with cutting gas. Germany would survive that, but the economic and private costs would be very high.
Its pilots also can quickly bring boots on the the ground, once they got shot down. :O:
I am not the first pointing out that Russia probably has the strongest and deepest-layered aerial missile and interceptor defence in the world.
Sky;
The USSR had the strongest and deepest-layered aerial missile and interceptor defense in the world. Maybe, it depends on how you score those categories.
Modern Russia has TV commercials and propaganda. :yep: And, hyper turbo super cavitating doomsday torpedos and internet trolls.
How do you think the rest of the world views invading another county? What if they only want to create a buffer zone? By invading ANOTHER freaking country?? Where does that end??
:k_confused:
Here's a thought- when was the last time you had a yearning to visit Moscow? :haha:
If Vlad thinks the rest of the world is good at pretending they don't really want to invade, maybe someone should check his water supply. :up:
em2nought
01-16-22, 09:12 PM
Lets hope a so called American President doesn't decide he has to get involved in order to save his absurd Presidency. :hmmm:
Skybird
01-17-22, 09:20 AM
I have no craving to go to Russia, China or Iran, ever. I was in in Iran, for many months, late 90s, okay. But I was a different man then, and I ticked differently back then. As a result I see Iran more differentiated today then most others. But that doe snot chnbage my detemrination to insist that we muzst confront them. Same with Russia. That i voice a more complex, complicated view on thigns doe snot mean I love Putin. Far form it. I soberly amdit however that he plays the Grand Game very well, and better than any European leaders, or any of the last presidents in the US. I mean after all th8is time he is still there and Russia is strionger than 30 years ago.
Technologically, Russia traditionally has had the upper hand in missile technology, both ATGMs and SAMs. They have produced them in greater variety and mostly for better effectiveness than most Western pendants. They have them in superior quantities, different to the West. Regarding their current SAM and radar technology they absolutely have the ability to turn air spaces into aerial access denial zones - and doing so even far beyond their national borders. I am aware of US stealth technology, yes. I am just not as one-sidedly and enthusiastically convinced of its effectiveness against a real high tech opponent with practical expertise to reduce exactly these kind of systems's effectiveness.
I do not say the Russian stealth technology is as good alreadsy as the American, and they certainly know that. Its their counter-stealth abilities that would give me concerns.
Some years ago America was laughing about the possibility that China could turn former ICBMs into carrier killers. Well, its been a longer time now that I heard any further laughter.
And the last wars run by the US against technologically far inferior enemies did not really went that well at all. Judging by the end results, I would rate them all as strategic defeats.
I think Biden has that on his mind and that is why he gives the imoresison oif staying clear of any military engagement over the Ukraine. I think that is wise. I cannot imagine that the US military is all hooray over the outlook of needing to fight the Russians. The outcome is - open.
Jimbuna
01-17-22, 09:40 AM
I really can't see anyone in the west (country-wise) taking on Russia in a military context. The best and probably most effective way would be through trade sanctions surely.
Skybird
01-18-22, 01:45 AM
German foreign ministeriness Baerbock refused in Kiev the delivery of any German weaponry, instead offered "solidarity".
The British meanwhile sent a first of several batches of short range ATGMs, and dispatched more military advisors.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-60033012
Jimbuna
01-18-22, 07:00 AM
Why on earth is the UK getting involved :nope:
Catfish
01-18-22, 09:06 AM
Why on earth is the UK getting involved :nope:
They could at least have waited what Lawrow has to say, and then load the trucks.
The only blackmailing action for Germany regarding sanctions can be Swift, weapons, and NordStream.
In Germany there is no "strategical culture" handling military conflicts. Instead the foreign policy consists of too little action, and self-righteous advices from the sideline, rendering a dedicated and combined western action impossible. :nope:
Skybird
01-18-22, 09:35 AM
Why on earth is the UK getting involved :nope:
Trainers and advisors it had in the Ukraine aleady since longer time, BBC says.
Considering the type of weapons - assault rifles and small firearms from the US, short range ATGMs from the UK - this is acceptable. None of these are capable to threaten an offensive against Russian forces on Russian soil. What I miss is shoulderpad SAMs à la Stinger against gunships and CAS aircraft (SU-25, SU-39).
They should have the option to defend themselves at least as good as they can. We cannot just watch when the Russians shoot them into pieces, and when they bleed from a thousand holes we send medikits and call that solidarity - I call that cynism.
They do not need blankets or warm words and gestures. They need weapons and ammunition. Especially ATGMs. ATGMs are what makes a mechanized attack force think twice.
Pathetic however it is to deliver them a few corvettes. Now, and only small vessels like these. The Russian Black Sea fleet and air force could blow them out of the water at will, I assume.
A to front invasion ?
Read in the news yesterday that Russia and Belarus shall hold a combined military exercise near the Ukrainian border in Feb. It didn't say when only in Feb.
Markus
nikimcbee
01-18-22, 10:20 AM
They should have the option to defend themselves at least as good as they can. We cannot just watch when the Russians shoot them into pieces, and when they bleed from a thousand holes we send medikits and call that solidarity - I call that cynism.
They do not need blankets or warm words and gestures. They need weapons and ammunition. Especially ATGMs. ATGMs are what makes a mechanized attack force think twice.
Pathetic however it is to deliver them a few corvettes. Now, and only small vessels like these. The Russian Black Sea fleet and air force could blow them out of the water at will, I assume.
So "thoughts and prayers" are out?:D Maybe a musical concert will stop them?:D:D
I remember when the Syrian Civil War was all the rage. My Mom got really upset that we were NOT intervening in the conflict, because "Christians were being slaughtered." Yes, that would be my anti-war Mom.:doh: Sorry, not sending your grandson into a 3 way or 4 way civil war. I told her if it meant so much to her, she should take an ad out in Soldier of Fortune, she's part of a VERY wealthy religion. If they cared so much about Christians being killed, maybe they should buy them some weapons so they can defend themselves? But whatever:doh:.
I don't have a clue how I'd get Putin to back down. What Putin is doing is wrong, but I'm not too excited about getting involved in it, beyond supplying weapons.
Do you think the end game is full restoration of the Soviet Union?
Rockstar
01-18-22, 10:27 AM
Why on earth is the UK getting involved :nope:
Inviting The Ukraine into NATO would have most likely obligated us to intervene militarily to defend them which I think would have drawn us into a bigger and endless guerrilla war.
Our involvement now just sending maybe advisors and most definitely weapons to Ukraine is something we can keep that up indefinitely. If Russia is serious about the Donbass and initiate an offensive they’ll be the ones looking at another Afghanistan style quagmire. Not us.
^^Personally I don't think so. I don't think Putin is interested in re-creating Soviet with Poland, Belarus, Ukraine a.s.o as their safe zone
I think he is sending a clear signal to the West-Stay out of Ukraine and other eastern country that isn't part of NATO.
His demand that NATO shall leave Poland, Estonia, Letland is what I think is he want these country to be neutral-No membership in any military organization.
I hope in this case that I'm right.
Markus
Rockstar
01-18-22, 11:00 AM
Poland, and the old Prussian states are stable and well established, some fought hard to be a member of NATO. They all made a choice and it wasn’t to be friends with Russia. Putin can pack sand.
Skybird
01-18-22, 11:06 AM
Do you think the end game is full restoration of the Soviet Union?
I dont know if that, but certainly Putin wants to establish a Russian hegemony in Europe, and would not mind to get as much of the former Sovjet vasall republics back as possible. He does so at the same time when China starts to rattle sabres over Hongkong and Taiwan. What a "coincidence"!
Also, the Russians have invested too much now as if they could just quit this round without having gained anything. They would loose their face, the world would laugh about them for years and not take them serious anymore - which probably is Putin's biggest concern.
Strategically they can keep the Ukraine in constant state of destabilization, this way preventing it from becoming stronger, and they could do the same with Europe.
German foreign ministress Baerbock has just seen Lawrow in Moscow, their first meeting. Our media say the atmosphere was formally polite but not more, and turned much more frosty with time passing by. Baerbock left the press conference without the normally obligatory shake-hands. Its like I and many others predicted: Baerbock's claim that she wants to establish a "moral and feminist foreign policy" crashes on the Russian cliffs of ice-coldly calculated power policies.
Putin is not known to be follower of both morals, or feminism - has nobody told her...?
During the late 50s and early 60s, the German defence budget was 4%. It currently is 1.3x %, I red today. Russia is the biggest and strongest army in Europe. Baerbock wants to dictate conditions. She will dictate nothing, her threats are empty, the Germans will suffer dearly from all out economic sanctions, and have strong business interests to protect Russia (including but not limited to gas), the government is in parts deeply associated with Russia (especially the SPD which has practially no real expert for American- European ties, but many who think they are Russia-whisperers), and it is isolated in the EU over the question how to deal with Russia; the EU's Borell short time ago has bluntly dressed down the German positions, rightly and undiplomatically labelling them as self-contradictory. He did so not behind loocked door - but during a public press conference.
Unfortunately the Russian know all thsio, and see all this. They have no reason to take pressure out of the kettle. Their interst is best served by increasing it further.
Hush-hush, somebody must tell angry Anna-Lena and her master, bubble-Olaf!
P.S. Putin also must have taken note that Europe wants to become carbon-emission neutral much - and unrealistically - earlier than expected, and that could spell the beginning of the end of Russian energy sales to Europe, meaning a huge financial loss in the Russian budget. China will buy some of those positions, but probably not all. That would also mean that Russia would depend on China buying their gas, which cannot be in Russian interest, they want to spread their risks. By raising turmoil in Europe and distracting the energy policy revolution as well as trying to blackmail the EU for signing long-lasting replacment treaties that last long beyond the European timetables for gettign rid of gas and carbon, he tries to win time and makes it very costly for the EU so that it cannot stick to its timetable - hopefully. An arms race might play into Russian hands if it means Europe must redirect funds from the energy revolution to boosting military budgets. Russia is no industrial giant, only a giant in selling energy ressources. And that puts them on the spot.
nikimcbee
01-18-22, 11:22 AM
Poland, and the old Prussian states are stable and well established, some fought hard to be a member of NATO. They all made a choice and it wasn’t to be friends with Russia. Putin can pack sand.
I can see the Eastern half of Ukraine going back to Russia, but not the Western half. (Eastern Orthodox vs Catholic). Whether Ukrainians want to go back, is another story.
For me, it's game on if Putin makes a move on the Baltic States. I don't see them ever going back.
Skybird
01-18-22, 12:46 PM
For me, it's game on if Putin makes a move on the Baltic States. I don't see them ever going back.
You have a wire into my head, eh?!
If a NATO member gets allowed to be swallowed up by Russia, then NATO can immediately say Sayonara to world stage politics. It would be 100% obsolete.
You have a wire into my head, eh?!
If a NATO member gets allowed to be swallowed up by Russia, then NATO can immediately say Sayonara to world stage politics. It would be 100% obsolete.
Your statement made me recall a discussion we had about NATO and its Article 5 the so called muskets oath
Can't remember who it was, who said that if a NATO member would be attacked the others would discuss whether article 5 should be used and if it's necessary to start a war against the aggressor. It would mean month long debates in NATO and in NATO members countries Parliament.
Could remember wrong though.
Markus
Jimbuna
01-18-22, 02:29 PM
‘We’ll fight to the end.’ Ukraine defiant in face of Vladimir Putin’s phoney war.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/15/well-fight-to-the-end-ukraine-defiant-in-face-of-vladimir-putins-phoney-war
Exocet25fr
01-19-22, 12:26 PM
Ukraine security chief: no threat of a Russian invasion. "Foreign media" stories on this are false.
https://vk.com/video404210594_456240386
What will they do when the heat becomes very hot ? Will they stand their ground and fight the invader ?
Day before yesterday Danish tv had a reportage about ordinary Ukrainian who had taken a weapon in their hand. Most of them for the first time-like this elderly woman who worked with graphic designer in her civilian life.
Will they have enough nerve to stand their ground ?
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Jimbuna
01-19-22, 01:20 PM
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has accused Russia of trying to divide Ukrainian society, as fears mount of a Russian invasion of Ukraine.
An estimated 100,000 Russian troops have been deployed near Ukraine's borders and Mr Blinken, visiting Kyiv, said Russia could launch an attack at very short notice.
Mr Blinken also promised "relentless" diplomacy to stop Russian aggression.
Russia has repeatedly denied planning to invade its neighbour.
At a news conference with the Ukrainian foreign minister, Mr Blinken accused Russia of trying to weaken Ukraine's diplomatic institutions and to divide Ukrainian society, "using everything from election interference to disinformation to cyber attacks".
He also pledged "relentless diplomatic efforts to prevent renewed aggression and to promote dialogue and peace", and repeated a warning of tough sanctions against Russia in the event of an invasion.
Mr Blinken will meet his Russian counterpart in Geneva on Friday, after talks with European allies in Berlin.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60048395
Aktungbby
01-19-22, 05:03 PM
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has accused Russia of trying to divide Ukrainian society, as fears mount of a Russian invasion of Ukraine.
An estimated 100,000 Russian troops have been deployed near Ukraine's borders and Mr Blinken, visiting Kyiv, said Russia could launch an attack at very short notice.
Mr Blinken also promised "relentless" diplomacy to stop Russian aggression.
Russia has repeatedly denied planning to invade its neighbour.
At a news conference with the Ukrainian foreign minister, Mr Blinken accused Russia of trying to weaken Ukraine's diplomatic institutions and to divide Ukrainian society, "using everything from election interference to disinformation to cyber attacks".
He also pledged "relentless diplomatic efforts to prevent renewed aggression and to promote dialogue and peace", and repeated a warning of tough sanctions against Russia in the event of an invasion.
Mr Blinken will meet his Russian counterpart in Geneva on Friday, after talks with European allies in Berlin.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60048395This phase of the smoke & mirrors Sitzkrieg is what Churchill called 'jaw-jaw'...but our approach is hampered seriously imho when at the conference table eyeball to eyeball with the imperialist decieveing rebuilders of the Stalin's Iron Curtain needing a landbridge to their Crimean land-snatch further gaining key port Mariupol for a Black Sea port....and your Yank eyeballer is named...Blinken!?? (as in: "first one to blink ...loses":yep:) I may be Biden my time but we're surely gonna blink!?
Platapus
01-19-22, 05:07 PM
I just don't want the US to get involved. Let the EU handle it if they feel strongly about it.
Skybird
01-19-22, 05:34 PM
^ I share that sentiment, but cannot see why European troops should want to get engaged there either. Its a failed state, or better: a failed political system. We can and should give them assistance (intel, satellite recce) and material support (weapons, ammo) to fight themselves, but we should not fight their fights for them.
Meanwhile Biden said in today's press conference he believes that "Putin must do something" and that "he will move into Ukraine", in form of what Biden called a "minor incursion": means not a prolonged stay, and not a total occupation of all the country.
Me too thinks the Russians will invade, but probably not to overrun the complete country. I am just not so certain that they only stay for a limited time. The goal could be to split and divide the country, as Catfish mentioned earlier: a pro-European Western part, and a pro-Russian Eastern part. Historically and culturally that makes kind of cold-blooded sense. Also, if Western Ukraine then later joins NATO against Russia's will, they have the Eastern Ukraine as the buffer zone they want.
Their allocation of forces extends their embrace of the Ukraine, whcih must split forces to defend more of its borders, weakening it this way. Is also a threat to Poland and the Baltic: they get "embraced", too.
The Ukrainian ambassador was interviewet on our news channel yesterday. What Ukrainian is asking for is AA, AAA or similar.
Markus
Skybird
01-20-22, 01:17 AM
Not from the Germans, that much is for sure. Heck, part of the SPD and Greens even want to dismantle NATO! And that part of the SPD still rubs itself to the Russians and asks them for cuddles.
Its this servile attitude towards Russia and the former USSR that is one of the main reasons why I dispise the SPD so much. They have practically no expert for relations with America amongst their ranks, but many who want to close ties with Russia and prevent any hard stand against it.
Fairness demandfs to mention that the Greens and the FDP also are against weapons for the Ukraine. In this, all threee coaltioj parties are united. They imply that this way the world will change and they can enforce negotiations. Immature. Me too is against trading military weapons and equipment like any other common trading good, except between alliance partners, but I think of this as a general rule and I can imagine scenarios where exceptions should be considered. This is one of them. (But I do not want to see exceptions becoming the new normal, like it was in the past.) The Ukraine needs weapons, not lukewarm words and gestures claiming a high-riding moral superiority.
In the end, the Germans only want to not threaten their businesses with Russia. Thats the centre of gravity in their Russia policy. Its even understandable, because else the damages for Germany would be extreme. Its easy for other European nations to demand more sanctions. Nobody, by a huge margin, will be affected as badly from that, as Germany.
What I would demand from germany is, however, that it starts to untangle its economic needs from Russia. But Russia is a German obsession and a national pet hobby. As I say since so many years: economies that are as depending on exports as the German economy is, are not really strong, but are weak and vulnerable. Dependency and strength simply do not wear the same colours. Economic strength is: autarky.
^ After I had posted my last comment and turned my computer off I watched the midnight news here they showed a short clip from this interview and they was interviewing the Danish Minister of Foreign affairs who sad:
NATO should help Ukraine with weapon if Putin gives the order.
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Jimbuna
01-20-22, 10:02 AM
US President Joe Biden has said he thinks his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin will "move in" on Ukraine but does not want "full-blown war".
He told a news conference Mr Putin would pay a "serious and dear price" for invading, but indicated a minor incursion might be treated differently.
The White House later stressed any Russian military move would be met with a swift, severe response from the West.
The Kremlin warned the comments could further destabilise the situation.
Russia has some 100,000 troops near the border but denies planning an invasion.
President Putin has made a series of demands to the West, insisting Ukraine should never be allowed to join Nato and that the defensive alliance abandons military activity in Eastern Europe.
"We have made it clear that any further eastward expansion of Nato is unacceptable," Mr Putin said at a televised press conference last month.
Mr Putin's exact reasons for the build up of Russian troops near Ukraine's border are unknown, but many believe it is an attempt to force the West to take Russia's security demands seriously.
On Thursday, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is meeting foreign ministers from Germany, France and the UK to co-ordinate Western strategy over a potential invasion of Ukraine. He has previously warned that Russia could attack Ukraine at short notice.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60061300
Mr Putin's exact reasons for the build up of Russian troops near Ukraine's border are unknown, but many believe it is an attempt to force the West to take Russia's security demands seriously.
Then I was right when I wrote
The soldiers and material near the Ukrainian border could also be a signal to NATO.
Markus
Onkel Neal
01-20-22, 12:13 PM
Russians reportedly have 100,000 troops staged, right?
Ukraine populations is like 43 million. So why don't they stage 5 million armed and supplied men on the border and give the Rooskies that's what's up.
Jimbuna
01-20-22, 01:31 PM
Russians reportedly have 100,000 troops staged, right?
Ukraine populations is like 43 million. So why don't they stage 5 million armed and supplied men on the border and give the Rooskies that's what's up.
Well, they've got nothing to lose because the west won't be getting involved physically/militarily.
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