Here we go again-Ukraine once again [Archive] - Page 2

View Full Version : Here we go again-Ukraine once again

Pages : 1 [2] 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48

mapuc

01-20-22, 02:12 PM

There's a lot more than these 100000 soldiers and material near the Russian Ukrainian border.

They said in the news some weeks ago that Russia moves troops and material to the border each day-So for this indicate that the number 100000 is wrong.

Markus

Exocet25fr

01-20-22, 02:18 PM

I just don't want the Nato to get involved. Let Biden handles it if he feels strongly about it !:D

Skybird

01-20-22, 03:18 PM

Russians reportedly have 100,000 troops staged, right?

Ukraine populations is like 43 million. So why don't they stage 5 million armed and supplied men on the border and give the Rooskies that's what's up.
"Armed and supplied" might be the problem here. They still lack desperately ATGMs, and SAMs. Britain delivered ATGMs, the US assault rifles. But not enough. Mayn Ukrainian soldiers need to fight with soto speak rusty rifles from the immediate post-war era. WWII post-war that means. Russia can field some of the most modern weaponry and platforms in the world. And they are still prioritize artillery and missile artillery, in this they are masters, not equals amongst equals. Bad news for an inferior ifantry army at the receiving end of fire.

Nobody likes to get mauled by an APC rolling over him or a gunship playing field hockey with corpses just for nothing.

In the end, the Ukraine is a big country, even for 100.000 pairs of Russian boots on the ground. I doub the Russians want all of it, they "only" want the eastern half. Bad enough.

ET2SN

01-20-22, 05:44 PM

Well, they've got nothing to lose because the west won't be getting involved physically/militarily.

I'm not so sure about that. :03:

The preferred solution uses diplomacy, but it isn't the only solution. :yep:

mapuc

01-20-22, 05:47 PM

I'm not so sure about that. :03:

The preferred solution uses diplomacy, but it isn't the only solution. :yep:

It depends on how fast the Russian can take the part they want to occupy. IF they take it within a week I don't see NATO have enough time to send military aid to Ukraine.

Markus

Skybird

01-20-22, 05:59 PM

Military aid is being delivered since some time already, on last Monday and Tuesday at least five air transports with ATGMs and other things from the UK alone, maybe more. Even if the Russian invade, if the West dares to do so it can continue to send air transport that land in the Western half of the country. Or they hand over ground transports at the border, fit hey fear Russian air attacks.

However, Russian fighters engaging Western air transports over the westeren Ukraine would be an escalation that even for the Russians may sound too daring.

Some days ago, the Russian foreing ministry hinted at that the Russians consider military assistance and deployments to Cuba and Venezuela.

Where is a Kennedy when you need one...

The Russian are ahead in the action-reaction game, and they try to make sure it stays that way. Ther eis a chess slang term for that. Players sometimes call it "setting the board ablaze". It means to make things so complex and complicated that the opponent can only react, and more and more insufficiently so, and can never act, and suffers increasing overload. The Russians have the initiative, and I think it will stay that way for long time to come.

We should not complain. Our lack of options, our lack of degrees of freedom, are self-made. Nobody forced us to let things slide this far. We were indifferent too long. The strong have the freedom to do what they want. The weak only can suffer what they must.

ET2SN

01-20-22, 06:00 PM

It depends on how fast the Russian can take the part they want to occupy. IF they take it within a week I don't see NATO have enough time to send military aid to Ukraine.

Markus

NATO already has staging and logistics areas in Romania and (I think?) Moldova. The Black Sea isn't as Russian as it used to be. :03:

mapuc

01-20-22, 06:18 PM

you're right I stand corrected-Forgot about these military aid that already has been sent to Ukraine.

I made a search to see how many and where the Russian has position their soldiers near the Ukrainian border and if there's more than these 100000 men.

Is these 100000 men boots on the ground or is the total number of military men(incl. tankdriver, pilot a.s.o.) ?

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/01/07/world/europe/ukraine-maps.html

Markus

Skybird

01-20-22, 06:33 PM

In my understanding, 100k on Russian grounds near the border, additional troops sent into Belarus again for "manouvers" near the Ukrianian border, plus navy infantry in sea manouvers of their lfeet in the Black Sea. And reinforcements seem to move everyhwere in Western Russia, all westward of course.

When you lean yourself this far out of the window and all world is watching you, you cannot just cancel the showdown anymore without loosing your face. Russia will attack, in any way. They can no longer move back anymore, me thinks.

At home, this is risky for Putin. Western media say the Russian population is absolutely not in a supporting mood for this war. Whether this is truthful reporting of wishful thinking, I cannot say, of course. A war with the Ukraine is not popular in Russian society, that much I am certain of, however.

mapuc

01-20-22, 06:40 PM

Skybird

01-20-22, 08:41 PM

For once I hope your wrong-But how interested is Putin in loosing face in front of the world ?

Very. If "loosing face" translates into "looking like a weak coward who does not put his deeds were his mouth is".

Russia wants toi reclaim past "fame, wanst to be seen as equal and on same eye level with the US, although economically and technologically it aint. Despite gas and oil, all that Russia has to throw in is military power. Slamming fists on the table and stomping feet is all that he can do to impress his way to the big round table where Le Grande Jeux is played. And if the US wpul.d not be so distracted by its confrontation with China, not even the military card would play easy.

Russia cannot constructively play the game, it can only spoil the game for the others. But that is enough to ruin it. Russia cannot be great by own constructive strength, so it must in relation become stronger by weakening the others and increasing their existing weaknesses. And thats what Russia does. Strength is relative.

ET2SN

01-20-22, 10:10 PM

Very good points but I still get the feeling a lot of this has to do with that last election in Germany. :03:

All of a sudden that new gas pipeline wasn't looking like a printing press for Rubles so Putin wound up painting himself into a corner.

Which is very ironic. Its now up to Russia to back down in order to avoid a war with NATO. I think Putin was betting that the rest of Europe would ignore Ukraine and would choose to "play nice" with the conquering army.

Instead, NATO told him politely to Stuff It.

Skybird

01-21-22, 06:10 AM

Instead, NATO told him politely to Stuff It.
NATO states' behaviour clearly signals that they will not militarily intervene. ;) To what degree economic threats intimidate Putin remains to be seen. But I know the gas and electricity prices in Germany, and they do not look pleasant.

Meanwhile the US agreed that the three small Baltic states deliver US-made Javelin ATGMs and Stingers SAMs to the Ukraine. Both are desperately needed, the Ukraine is very weak in air defences. Stingers however have a short leg only, but they hurt the Sovjets badly in Afghanistan, and forced them to change operation tactics. Javelins mostly have a range of 2.5 km, some versions demonstrated ranges in excess of 4 km, I do not know how it is with the export version, but Javelins can be used against hovering helicopters as well, a bonus especially for the Ukrainian forces. Against tanks it can also use pop-up attacks to go after the thin roof armour. - In SBP I hate Javelins, but then in SBP players quickly learn to hate ANY type of ATGM. :)

These three states, being in the focus of Russian threat and attention themselves already, put Germany to shame. I wonder how many they can afford to give away without putting themselves at risk of being undersupplied.

And NZZ reports that the number of air transports sent by the UK earlier this week had a minimum of eight and not just five flights as earlier reported, amongst other goods they brought 1000 Next Generation Light Anti-Tank Weapons, whatever that might be (never heard of that system designation, but the n I know nothing about British equipment expect MBTs and a few of the IFVs, I find it all very confusing with that British stuff on wheels).

ET2SN

01-21-22, 06:59 AM

NATO states' behaviour clearly signals that they will not militarily intervene. ;) To what degree economic threats intimidate Putin remains to be seen. But I know the gas and electricity prices in Germany, and they do not look pleasant.

They don't have to intervene militarily, nor should they want to. :03:

I would ask you to consider how Europe reacted when Iraq invaded Kuwait.
The NATO members were supposed to waffle and dodder along and do nothing, at least that was what Iraq was betting on happening.

France sent forces to the Gulf*. Heck, Japan sent members of the JSDF to the theater in medical and logistical roles (Japan's constitution forbid them from actually fighting). There weren't many "shrinking violets" at the end of the day.

If energy prices have you concerned, welcome to the concept of free trade. :up:
If a deal goes south, negotiate a new one. There are other nations who export oil and natural gas. :yep:

*- Just so there's no confusion, I'm not picking on France.
They had valid economic reasons to NOT get involved, which they ignored.

Skybird

01-21-22, 07:09 AM

I do not say NATO has a ballgame in Ukraine, I think it should not get involved, I was just replying to your comment that sounded like NATO threatened military reaction to Russian demands, because after all NATO is meant to be a military alliance - no economic alliance. The political-diplomatic-economic dimension would be reflected on different organisation levels, say the EU, and other international entities. And that political front is in doubt. Now that the Germans for the first time have indicated they might be willing to use NS2 as a sanction object, so far it has just been diplomatic talk between Scholz and Blinken.

Worse, I do not rule out that parts of the Greens and SPD even welcome the stressed gas situation in germany, for they can use it as propaganda ammunition to push for even harder climate policies in the name of becoming faster independent from Russian gas. For the left wings in both parties this suspicion is anything but far fetched, they have thought worse things in the past.

ET2SN

01-21-22, 07:52 AM

I was just replying to your comment that sounded like NATO threatened military reaction to Russian demands, because after all NATO is meant to be a military alliance - no economic alliance. The political-diplomatic-economic dimension would be reflected on different organisation levels, say the EU, and other international entities. And that political front is in doubt. Now that the Germans for the first time have indicated they might be willing to use NS2 as a sanction object, so far it has just been diplomatic talk between Scholz and Blinken.

No, my point is that NATO does not have to react militarily. They just have to show a unified front.

Russia can muddy the waters all it wants and ask never-ending questions about what is reality and what's up for debate.

It doesn't mean squat when the rest of Europe says, "Oh no you don't..".

:Kaleun_Cheers:

Skybird

01-21-22, 08:17 AM

Only if Russia does not create facts on the ground.

--------------------------

Nice sliding map at the end of this text:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-60077776

mapuc

01-21-22, 11:29 AM

Another story from RT

The harder Moscow denied it as ‘fake news’, the louder – and more vivid – the allegations became. Things went into overdrive after high-level security talks between Russia and the US appeared to end in failure, with Washington rejecting Moscow’s ‘red lines’ out of hand.

https://www.rt.com/russia/546575-putins-plans-ukraine-invasion-msm/

Markus

Skybird

01-21-22, 08:09 PM

While the US, the UK, the three small Baltic states and Poland deliver weapons to the Ukraine, Germany has just forbidden Esthnia to deliver artillery pieces from German production.

Peace made in Germany: just wishing war out of the world. :yeah:

Reece

01-21-22, 10:48 PM

This may go back to ww2 and the Berlin wall days sky, once bitten twice shy! :hmmm:

mapuc

01-22-22, 08:28 AM

The greatest victory in a war is where no shot is fired.

If Putin can get some of his demands without any shot is fired-He has won first round. Here I'm thinking on Ukraines wishes to join NATO

A promise and he can withdraw his troop without having lost his face.

Then there is this problem-the demand on Ukraine is not a stand alone problem Russia also demands demilitarization of former Eastern state like Bulgaria, Romania, Poland and the Baltic States

It can go three way.

1. Putin gets what he wants. 5-6 country leave NATO
2. Putin is promised that Ukraine never will join NATO.
3. Putin gets none of his demands.

Markus

Jimbuna

01-22-22, 10:55 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T4ZYZ_uVIjY

US 'lethal aid' arrives in Kyiv amid border build-up https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60096261

Aktungbby

01-22-22, 02:07 PM

/\in today's WSJ: Germany, on the other hand, has frozen weapon shipments including artillery from another NATO nation that 'originated' in Germany... https://sports.yahoo.com/germany-not-supply-weapons-kyiv-060000006.html

Exocet25fr

01-22-22, 02:28 PM

On 19 and 21 January 2022, the DPR (Donetsk People’s Republic) People’s Militia reported that it had recorded Ukrainian army preparations to carry out sabotage on the territory of the two People’s Republics, and to actively reignite the Donbass conflict.

mapuc

01-22-22, 02:30 PM

Skybird

01-22-22, 04:21 PM

Germany now kindly mulls the delivery of a field hospital. Heartwarming.

Meanwhile the military head of the German navy has to go and clear his post. During a visit in India he stated the obvious, that

1. the Crimean peninsula is in Russian hands and is very unlikely to ever return to the Ukraine. He also said that

2.the Ukraine will not meet the standards that qualify it for NATO membership. Finally he said that

3.what Putin most likelywants more than anything else, is respect, and that repect is cheap to give and could have avoided the situation that now is rerality.

He got fired, more or less. He was early and voluntarily cleared his post.

The German ambassador to Kiev has been called in and been told in clear and angry words that Kievs finds both irritating, unacceptable and dissappointing.

The admiral is right with points 1 and 2, however. His point 3 I think is true, too, but it was unwise to speak it out so frankly.

Edit.

He also said that

4. the chance for a Russian invasion of the Ukraine were nonsense (meaning it will not happen).

Well, could be that it is all bluff. I dont think so, but possible it is.

Vice-Admiral K.-A. Schönbach.

https://static.dw.com/image/60525492_403.jpg

mapuc

01-22-22, 04:32 PM

^ He's right on point 2-Ukraine is far from ready to join NATO.

Russia has announced a massive Naval manuover almost everywhere

All six landing craft have since departed the Baltic and have transited through the English Channel. They are widely believed to be headed for the Black Sea, where they could be used for an expected amphibious assault on Ukraine's Sea of Azov or Black Sea coastline.

https://www.maritime-executive.com/article/russia-announces-mass-naval-drills-involving-140-vessels

Markus

Skybird

01-22-22, 06:29 PM

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-60095459

The UK has accused President Putin of plotting to install a pro-Moscow figure to lead Ukraine's government.

The Foreign Office took the unusual step of naming former Ukrainian MP Yevhen Murayev as a potential Kremlin candidate

If you can't break it - bend it.

mapuc

01-22-22, 06:49 PM

There's a lot of information but also a lot of disinformation regarding the Ukrainian crisis.

What's up and what's down in all this ?

Markus

nikimcbee

01-23-22, 12:52 AM

There's a lot of information but also a lot of disinformation regarding the Ukrainian crisis.

What's up and what's down in all this ?

Markus

At this point, I'd say pick your biased source and take it with a grain of salt.:Kaleun_Thumbs_Up: When I lived in Ore-gone, the local NPR station would play the VoR (Voice of Russia) in English, that would be a trip to listen to now. lol

Jimbuna

01-23-22, 09:59 AM

Meanwhile the military head of the German navy has to go and clear his post.

What German navy might that be? :)

Jimbuna

01-23-22, 10:41 AM

"Europe is now closer to war than it has been since the break up of former Yugoslavia."

Stark words of warning from the senior EU diplomat I've just been speaking to off the record about current tensions with Moscow, over its huge military build-up on the border with Ukraine.

The mood in Brussels is jumpy. There's a real fear that Europe could be spiralling towards its worst security crisis in decades.

But angst isn't wholly focused on the prospect of a long, drawn-out ground war with Russia over Ukraine.

Few here believe Moscow has the military might, never mind the money, or popular support back home for that.

True: the EU warns the Kremlin of "extreme consequences" should it take military action in neighbouring Ukraine. Germany's new Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock was in Kyiv and Moscow saying just that on Monday.

Sweden moved hundreds of troops over the weekend to its strategically important Gotland island - which lies in the Baltic Sea. And Denmark strengthened its presence in the region a few days before that.

The rising tensions have also re-ignited the debate in both Finland and Sweden as to whether they should now join Nato.

But the overarching concern in the West - Washington, Nato, the UK and the EU - is less the possibility of conventional warfare over Ukraine, and far more, that Moscow is seeking to divide and destabilise Europe - shaking up the balance of continental power in the Kremlin's favour.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60030615

mapuc

01-23-22, 11:07 AM

My standpoint says it will be peace.
Russia and NATO will come to some kind of agreement and everything will calm down.
No invasion of Ukraine.

Markus

Skybird

01-23-22, 11:39 AM

What German navy might that be? :)

Ju...! Ju pad poy, ju! :stare:

Skybird

01-23-22, 11:43 AM

mapuc

01-23-22, 11:57 AM

For whatever it will ultimately be, the Russians will not ease pressure in this crisis and pull back without having gotten any sort of win, gain, prey, trophy. Just returning to a previous status quo would be an immense loss of face. They will not give up without any sufficient additional gains achieved.

Do they want it all at once or is it enough to get some of the demands ?

Demands like Ukraine and Georgia will never join NATO
or
NATO leave Bulgaria, Romania, Poland, Estonia...

It's not going to happen-that NATO leave these countries to them self.

Only thing Russia can get is a promise that Ukraine and Georgia will not become a NATO member.

When it comes to Finland and Sweden I don't know.

Markus

Skybird

01-23-22, 12:13 PM

I think they are going after something more substantial than just any NATO declaration that I would rule out to ever be given anyway. They want to boost their stand and influenc ein the Ukraine. By proxy forces gianign influence, by a puppet regime installed as the BBC claimed they plan to do, or gaining further ground. They are not dumb, they knew from day one on that their demand that NATO should pull out of Eastern Europe and should declare formal ends to any future NATO expansion to the east, would not be accepted. If NATO would do that, it could quit and dismantle itself immediately, becasue it then would only be mentioned as a joke anymore.

Could also be that they want the Ukraine to be divided.

Jimbuna

01-23-22, 01:37 PM

Could also be that they want the Ukraine to be divided.

That is the way I'm thinking.

mapuc

01-23-22, 02:18 PM

It makes me sad-Knowing Skybird may very well be correct what he wrote and there will come a war. Due to the demands Russia has towards NATO-Demands NATO can't or will fulfil.

A bad feeling I have - An upcoming exercise in Belarus and a huge naval exercise with 140 warship these are to be held in the beginning of the next month Feb.

Markus

Skybird

01-23-22, 07:23 PM

The US has ordered the relatives of its embassy staff in Ukraine to leave amid rising tension in the region. The State Department has also given permission for non-essential staff to leave and urged US citizens in Ukraine to consider departing.

In a statement. it said there were reports that Russia is planning significant military action against Ukraine.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60106416

ET2SN

01-23-22, 09:32 PM

I think there are two ways we need to look at this:

Tactical- What can be done now to protect Ukraine?

Strategic- Who are the the next countries on the list?

:hmmm:

Reece

01-23-22, 10:01 PM

Conspiracy theory:

China and Russia are now allies so I suppose Russia will take Ukraine and simultaneously China will take Taiwan!! :hmmm::doh:

Catfish

01-24-22, 03:24 AM

Basically Putin wants Russia to be respected, he obviously misses this in seeing NATO grow ever nearer to Russia's borders (see baltic states, Poland etc.) despite the pledges of western states made to the (then) CCCP.

The USA argues that this eastern shift of NATO is not violating the pledge since the CCCP does not exist anymore. They also insist of every country having the freedom and right to decide to join any military treaty, anytime.

The first is a lawyer's argument which is somehow correct theoretically even if it feels definitely morally wrong; the second has more weight.
Ok Russia tries to influence Ukraine politics, but so does the US.

Anyway, the guarantee or assurance Putin wants is that there is no additional country at Russia's borders joining NATO, read: Ukraine.

Let's be honest, Ukraine is neither financially ready or fit enough to join the EU, nor "ripe" to join NATO. It is corrupt even without Russia's or the US's external influence and has to get a grip on its own situation first. Interference from abroad will not help them as a nation.

Would it have been so impossible for 'the west' to agree to this not joining the NATO, at least for the next decade? Especially in this (for the west) weak situation? :hmmm:
Russia could be a valuable partner against China, just in case..

ET2SN

01-24-22, 05:16 AM

Catfish

01-24-22, 06:23 AM

It isn't up to "the west" or the EU when it comes to which nations can join NATO. NATO is pro "democracy" in that its up to the population of a country to request that the country joins NATO (via the voting booth and popular sentiment) [...].
As you said "it is then up to the government to get its crap in order before it applies for membership", the Ukraine did nothing of the kind.
And when Ukraine requests a NATO membership who decides if they can join?

NATO doesn't want to expand, NATO wants to keep the peace. Tell this to Russia. The only reason for NATO's existence was the soviet CCCP.
Recall why NATO was founded (the destruction from WWI and WWII) in the first place.NATO was founded against the CCCP when the 'Allies' were not allies anymore, "against communist aggression and subversion", not much to do with WW1.
After WW2 soviet Russia proposed a unified neutral Germany as a precondition to remove its troops and end the occupation, but as we know the US were against it - whence East and West Germany until 1989. Not much here forget this.

Skybird

01-24-22, 06:26 AM

A nation can ask for club membership, this right it has, naturally. But it has no right to expect that the answer necessarily must be what it wants to hear: "Yes". The club has also a right: the right to say "No".

Same is true for EU membership, btw. Other nations (European nations , not Northafrican or Middle East nations, these days one must reiterate this since some EU theoreticists seriously consider these options!) can ask for membership, but they have no claim for that, nor for that even just a formal process gets started.

And I think especially the EU and last but not least the Eurozone has already bitten off far more than it can ever chew. That the EU wants to link EU membership with ECB membership does not make it any better.

Skybird

01-24-22, 06:30 AM

According to the NYT, the US considers to send several thousand troops to Eastern Europe. Meanwhile the UK also has started to reduce its embassy staff in the Ukraine and to have remaining staff's families being moved out.

ET2SN

01-24-22, 09:19 AM

Catfish; The original idea was to avoid another massive land war in Europe.

The CCCP was "expanding its borders" at the time. :O::yep:

mapuc

01-24-22, 09:38 AM

Some speculations

Will Russia invade Ukraine ?
If so when will this happen ?
Will Russia invade the entire country or
only the Eastern part of the country ?

I fear Putin has decided to invade Ukraine and it will happen after 10th of Feb-Russia and Belarus has planned an exercise near the Ukrainian border, which could indicate that Russia and Belarus will attack from two side. Furthermore the Russian Navy has a planned exercise in Feb.

This could mean they also going to invade from seaside.

But what do I know-Not much.

Markus

Platapus

01-24-22, 10:11 AM

Here is a good site that describes how a country can become a member of NATO

https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/topics_49212.htm

countries seeking NATO membership would have to be able to demonstrate that they have fulfilled certain requirements. These include:

a functioning democratic political system based on a market economy;
the fair treatment of minority populations;
a commitment to the peaceful resolution of conflicts;
the ability and willingness to make a military contribution to NATO operations; and
a commitment to democratic civil-military relations and institutional structures.

Has the Ukraine fulfilled these requirements?

Bubblehead1980

01-24-22, 11:47 AM

Putin knows we have a elderly, weak, and senile martinet currently occupying the Presidency, feels emboldened by this. I am torn by this, should he invade without any real consequence, especially from the US he will be further emboldened. Then again, why should be get into a war over Ukraine? After all, the US outright invaded a sovereign nation without cause in 2003.

Then again, Biden's handlers know with the rising anger and angst among majority of the US population, great time for distraction eh? They are beating the war drums already. A incident to bring out the jingoistic fervor that resides like a dormant virus in our nations collective bloodstream is just what they need to distract the masses and silence opposition. Perilous times in which we exist..

Exocet25fr

01-24-22, 12:57 PM

Bubblehead1980

01-24-22, 01:18 PM

Washington is crazy and very dangereous, Biden and usa need a new war after Vietnam and Irak, and continue in their provocation to obtain a WWIII, but the field of the game will be the EUROPE..........!:D

Yes, quite sad. Just a tad over 100 years after our first "adventure" in Europe ended, which led to the second "Great Adventure", we appear on the brink.

mapuc

01-24-22, 01:34 PM

NATO is sending more soldiers and material to Eastern Europe.
This is done to strengthen the defence in these countries

Markus

Platapus

01-24-22, 01:42 PM

Putin knows we have a elderly, weak, and senile martinet currently occupying the Presidency

martinet?

You sure that's the word you meant?

Exocet25fr

01-24-22, 02:33 PM

Martinet in french > Indiana's swift...!:haha:

mapuc

01-24-22, 02:36 PM

The question is what type of weakness does Biden have.

Is he weak in general when it comes to foreign affairs ?
Is he weak when it comes to the military ?

Markus

Skybird

01-24-22, 02:44 PM

Washington needs a new war after Vietnam and Iraq, says Exocet? Nonsense, nobody in the Biden cabinet dreams of fighting in or for or over the ukraine. The troops they consider to send, are reinforcements for NATO members in Eastern Europe - not for the Ukraine.

The most wanted reaction to an invasion would be an exclusion of Russia from SWIFT since this would give them pain. It cannot threaten them existentially, for that they are too autark, but it can cause them real pain. But Europeans are divide don this due to their bsuiensses with Russia, and especially Germany would hipe to prevcent this. The US would also want NS2 to be cancelled. This however is now to be had from the Germans.

No Western nation will wage war over or for the Ukraine. Not Germnay, not the rets of Europe, not the US. A strike against Eastern European NATO members however - thats an article 5 scenario.

Europe as well as the Ukaine have to expect serious Russian cyberspace activity by Russia, however, trying to spread chaos and distraction.

Jimbuna

01-24-22, 02:56 PM

An unconfirmed report indicates that Russia purchased 90,000 six-foot high male dummies from China a few months ago and the order was rushed through so they didn't have time to code 3 the faces so they appear more like Russians----instead of Chinese. Since Russia has millions of old Red Army uniforms in storage and some of them will fit a six-foot frame, the CIA is reportedly using a "spy in the sky" to zoom in and take a look at the Russian hordes "massed"on Ukraine's borders. First thing they saw was that many of them appear to be Chinese. Second thing is that most of them haven't moved a step since arriving. Hmmm?

Jimbuna

01-24-22, 02:57 PM

Russia to conduct live firing exercise of missiles off the coast of Ireland in February. Just coincidence of course!
https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/russia-to-hold-live-fire-naval-exercise-off-coast-of-ireland/?fbclid=IwAR04_lMzKdDmKw_-M21qI3VHsf-2BsMtKLVzEwAhHWitOvdKhSqWBzh1n4s

Jimbuna

01-24-22, 03:05 PM

Prime Minister Boris Johnson has warned Russia that invading Ukraine would be "disastrous" and a "painful, violent and bloody business".

Speaking as the Foreign Office pulled some embassy staff out of Ukraine, the PM said the situation was "pretty gloomy" but war was not inevitable.

He said the UK was "leading on creating a package of economic sanctions" against Russia and was supplying defensive weaponry to Ukraine.

Nato is putting forces on standby.

It said Nato allies were sending additional ships and fighter jets to eastern Europe to reinforce defences and increase deterrence, in response to the continuing build-up of Russian forces.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-60113271

Skybird

01-24-22, 03:10 PM

US has placed 8500 troops on alewrt for deplyoment to Eastern Europe.

Worthwhile to note: the Europeans were not even consultated, the decision was unilateral. Obviously Putin is not the only not giving much for the Europeans. :)

It became known that the UK airlift of weapons to the ukraine recently, mysteriously flew aroudn Germna airspace. Obviously Germany had not given them perimssion to use German air space. Another nice one, Germany.

I use to say that Turkey is an unreliable NATO partner. Fairness commands that I admit Germany probably has become the most unreliable amongst the European NATO members as well, and not just since this latest news. It benefits from what it always criticises and holds moral lecturesd against. Hypocrites.

mapuc

01-24-22, 03:27 PM

^ Can NATO expect help from Germany if, God forbid, there's a war between Russia and NATO ?

Reading some of your comment makes me wonder where Germans trust is-With the Russian or with NATO ?

Markus

Jimbuna

01-24-22, 03:32 PM

Germany will only bear arms in defence of her own territory and rightly so imho.

Bubblehead1980

01-24-22, 04:11 PM

martinet?

You sure that's the word you meant?

Haha I meant marionette of course. Typo. Thanks for pointing it out.

Aktungbby

01-24-22, 04:32 PM

This phase of the smoke & mirrors Sitzkrieg is what Churchill called 'jaw-jaw'...but our approach is hampered seriously imho when at the conference table eyeball to eyeball with the imperialist decieveing rebuilders of the Stalin's Iron Curtain needing a landbridge to their Crimean land-snatch further gaining key port Mariupol for a Black Sea port....and your Yank eyeballer is named...Blinken!?? (as in: "first one to blink ...loses":yep:) I may be Biden my time but we're surely gonna blink!?

Putin knows we have a elderly, weak, and senile martinet currently occupying the Presidency, feels emboldened by this. I am torn by this, should he invade without any real consequence, especially from the US he will be further emboldened. Then again, why should be get into a war over Ukraine? After all, the US outright invaded a sovereign nation without cause in 2003.

Then again, Biden's handlers know with the rising anger and angst among majority of the US population, great time for distraction eh? They are beating the war drums already. A incident to bring out the jingoistic fervor that resides like a dormant virus in our nations collective bloodstream is just what they need to distract the masses and silence opposition. Perilous times in which we exist..

An unconfirmed report indicates that Russia purchased 90,000 six-foot high male dummies from China a few months ago and the order was rushed through so they didn't have time to code 3 the faces so they appear more like Russians----instead of Chinese. Since Russia has millions of old Red Army uniforms in storage and some of them will fit a six-foot frame, the CIA is reportedly using a "spy in the sky" to zoom in and take a look at the Russian hordes "massed"on Ukraine's borders. First thing they saw was that many of them appear to be Chinese. Second thing is that most of them haven't moved a step since arriving. Hmmm? Maskirovka on the grand style meets the old Soviet tenet: "numbers (90k dummies)have a cachet of their own"...

Skybird

01-24-22, 04:33 PM

^ Can NATO expect help from Germany if, God forbid, there's a war between Russia and NATO ?
Tjaaaaaaa... Blind trust sounds different, I assume. But then, it went into Afgju naistan with other Euzropean nations, too, so I assume it strongly depends on circumstances, and individual situations. Article 5 leaves a backdoor open to not go with the aliance majority decision. It might dfepend on what poarty is formign the govenbrment. A left or SPD government is more anti-NATO and anti-US than a CDU-led government.

Reading some of your comment makes me wonder where Germans trust is-With the Russian or with NATO ?
A few, and mostly the elder, Germans are pro-America, due to WWII. Most are anti-US. Russopühilia is deeply encode din Germna genes, the Germans admired Russia/Sovjet socialism - and strong dicatorship! - already after WWI, and even huge famines and hundreds of thosuands iof not milliosn starving in Russia did not lead the Germans to question of the Russian model and that the future must be planned economy and belongs to spcialism. The trust in and craving for strong government regulation is very strong in Germany, the clihée of obedientz, servile subjects functionig n best when state authority commands them around, hoilds quiote some truth. It comes from the Prussian "Beamtenstaat" and Fritz reeducating his people to be obedient subjects to the higher state autghority. This is deeply engrave din the German soul (and helped the Nazis tremendously, of course).

Let me summarise it this way: Russia is dearer to the German heart than America, and if I were the others, I never would trust the Germans blindly and full-heartly. Or in Thatchers eternal words: you either have the Germans at your throat, or at your feet.

The SPD also has intellectual handicaps there. Since Brand's "Ostpolitik" they think they owe special friendship to the USSR and Russia and that nobody in the West knows and understands Russia better than the SPD-Germans.

Well, Putin cannot complain so far. Chancellor Scholz (SPD) really tries his best to pull the teeth of Wetsenr reacitons so fare. Always vague. Always blablabla. Never hard and fast. Always manouvering. He is a teflon-coated weasel.

Also, the gas prices in Germany are what they are. The point there is;: if we would be buying liquid gas from america, it would be even more expensive. Thats why the industry did not want to increase its share in past years: nobody wanted to pay for it. Germany is in a very ambivalent situation in all this. Much of that is Germany's own fault, it is home-made and Merkel-made. But not all. 60% Germany's work, and 40% the devil's contribution.

Skybird

01-24-22, 05:10 PM

Most of us seem to expect that the Russians would just roll over the Ukrainians like they did in 2014. But this French article raises some doubts on that. 2014 was a rude wakeup call. And the Ukraine has boosted its military tremendously since then.

https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20220120-is-the-ukrainian-military-really-a-david-against-the-russian-goliath

The Ukrainian army has grown from about 6,000 combat-ready troops to nearly 150,000 according to a summary of the US Congressional Research Service (https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF11862) conducted in June 2021. "Since 2014, Ukraine has sought to modernize its tanks, armored vehicles and artillery systems,” the report notes.Kyiv’s financial efforts to modernise its military over the past seven years has been significant. The share of the national budget allocated to military expenditure increased from 1.5 percent of GDP (Gross Domestic Product) in 2014 to more than 4.1 percent in 2020, according to World Bank figures (https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/MS.MIL.XPND.GD.ZS?locations=UA). This share of defence spending is more than most NATO countries and similar to Russia's military spending.
Ukraine, moreover, is no longer alone against Russia. Since 2014, NATO as an organisation as well as some member countries "have provided considerable aid, which is equivalent to about $14 billion", Fasola estimated.
The US has been the main provider of military hardware such as radio equipment, military transport trucks and more than 200 Javelin man-portable antitank missiles. Britain, Poland and Lithuania have also supplied Ukraine with defensive weapons.
Even Turkey has come to Ukraine's aid by selling its famous Bayraktar TB2 drones. "While the U.S.-provided weapons, such as the Javelin antitank missiles, have garnered the most headlines of Ukraine’s armory, Kyiv’s less-hyped backing from Turkey has raised alarms in Moscow,” noted the Washington Post (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/01/15/ukraine-russia-drones-turkey/) over the weekend.

mapuc

01-24-22, 05:13 PM

Thou longer the war will be fought thou more is the chance NATO will get involved.

Markus

ET2SN

01-24-22, 11:31 PM

Umm..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=16x56-Ozn2Q

Its starting to get serious. :hmmm:

ET2SN

01-25-22, 01:14 AM

Meanwhile, this is long but its pretty good.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0pFWt12bXWE

Keep in mind that they are two retired USN officers telling you what they can tell you. The response to the "carriers are sitting ducks" comment was amusing. :D

Catfish

01-25-22, 04:40 AM

Catfish; The original idea [for NATO, my edit] was to avoid another massive land war in Europe.
The CCCP was "expanding its borders" at the time. :O::yep:
The original idea was to have an excuse to keep US presence up in Europe for different reasons, militarily, spying, and last not least economical.
If Germany would have remained one neutral country, with US and Soviet Union withdrawing their troops (as proposed by the latter), the US would not have it.

When the Soviet Union finally tried to 'annex' or at least influence Greece helping the communists in the greek civil war, and England announcing to stop helping the other side, the then US president stated something like "up to here and no further", known as the Truman doctrine (https://history.state.gov/milestones/1945-1952/truman-doctrine). Again not exactly NATO.

A bit more on topic, when America changed its foreign policy in 1947:
"Truman also argued that the United States was compelled to assist “free peoples” in their struggles against “totalitarian regimes,” because the spread of authoritarianism would “undermine the foundations of international peace and hence the security of the United States.” In the words of the Truman Doctrine, it became “the policy of the United States to support free peoples who are resisting attempted subjugation by armed minorities or by outside pressures."

This would certainly apply to the Ukraine, but America has since changed its view, their position changing back and forth, so not sure what to make of this. I take it Putin was quite content with Trump striving for US isolation and non-interference, but now it is another thing with Biden.
Maybe Putin overplayed his cards, the US seem suddenly a bit more alert.

Skybird

01-25-22, 06:06 AM

Official NATO self-description:

[...] the Alliance's creation was part of a broader effort to serve three purposes: deterring Soviet expansionism, forbidding the revival of nationalist militarism in Europe through a strong North American presence on the continent, and encouraging European political integration.

Skybird

01-25-22, 06:40 AM

In German.

https://www.nzz.ch/international/russland-ukraine-einflusszonen-schraenken-buendnisfaehigkeit-ein-ld.1666061

raymond6751

01-25-22, 09:50 AM

I'm happy to say that Nato without the support of the USA and the UK would get steam rollered by the Russians, as far as I'm concerned this is a European Continent problem and not anyone else's to get involved in.

Macron and Merkel's smurfs against the mighty Russian bear?, it'll be over in a month, :haha: if Merkel's not careful she'll have Russian troops doing a victory march through the streets of Germany........again. :O: As for Macron, I assume he'll be willing France on to the final victory from some safe country like Canada, that's if the French haven't all jumped into dinghies and are paddling furiously towards the UK's shores, :O: meanwhile he will have come up with a dastardly plan to deflect all the blame on the English again. :yep:

****ing Muppets. :D

By the way, Merkel isn't running Germany any more. France wants the EU to do the negotiating, not the US or NATO. It makes sense, since they are financially dependent on Russia now. An oil pipeline, Russia to Germany, has just been completed. They need that oil.

Dollars always win.

raymond6751

01-25-22, 10:03 AM

I think the Russians will invade before spring turns the ground to mud. That is why they are at the borders, to move very soon.

They will take Ukraine, a job unfinished, started in Crimea. Putin had to be sure the US was so messed up (2 years now) that he would not be interfered with. Note too the Chinese are stirring the pot.

The arms to Ukraine are a token. Nato countries bordering the East were getting nervous, rightfully too. Putin has plans to put the old Soviet Union back in place. He never expected his demands to be met on Ukraine. He is building excuses to move.

Like last time, he will likely use insurgents and/or infiltrators to stir up Ukraine. He can then say he has to protect Russians there who are under attack. Same as last time.

Add to that cyber attacks and misinformation campaigns around the world. He has been planning this for a while. Who is next, Poland?

Exocet25fr

01-25-22, 10:08 AM

August

01-25-22, 10:36 AM

Biden is afraid because France and few other european countries dont need usa and nato anymore ! only australia needs them :D , Russia will be the best Partner. And Ukraine isn't a nato member !?, never Putin will accept that ! :D

Good because as far as I'm concerned NATO should have been disbanded with the fall of the Soviet Union. Especially when France told them to take a hike back in the 70's. I say Russia is Europe's problem, let them deal with the bear, and if they can't then you deserve to see your "best Partner" Russia driving their tanks down the Champs-Élysées. :)

Jimbuna

01-25-22, 11:14 AM

Britain is prepared to deploy troops to protect Nato allies in Europe if Russia invades Ukraine, Boris Johnson has said in a Commons statement.

He also warned that President Putin would face "ferocious" Ukrainian resistance and "many Russian mothers' sons will not be coming home".

The UK and its allies would also respond swiftly and "in unison" with "severe" economic sanctions, he added.

Russia, which denies plans to invade, has built up troops at the border.

Some 100,000 Russian soldiers have been deployed.

The US has put 8,500 troops on alert to deploy at short notice, which Russia said caused it "great concern".

Members of the Nato alliance, including Denmark, Spain, Bulgaria and the Netherlands, are sending more fighter jets and warships to Eastern Europe to bolster defences in the region.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-60123328

Nice one Boris. I hope you have your uniform neatly pressed and ready for the trip.

Exocet25fr

01-25-22, 11:15 AM

We have the nuclear bomb.....!:03:

Aktungbby

01-25-22, 11:18 AM

We should simply restore the nuclear weapons that Ukraine gave up so graciously in 1994-at the time the world's 3rd largest arsenal- to be 'nuclear free'; thus restoring the quid pro quo...to its 1994 level.

August

01-25-22, 11:18 AM

We have the nuclear bomb.....!:03:

Ya need something strong to clean up those dirty Parisian side streets! :D

mapuc

01-25-22, 11:30 AM

I would rather give up Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic states then use nukes to save these countries.

Markus

Exocet25fr

01-25-22, 11:37 AM

August wrote: Ya need something strong to clean up those dirty Parisian side streets!

Maybe the Russian Tanks.....! ugly yankee :yeah:

https://fr.dreamstime.com/new-york-city-ny-usa-d%C3%A9chets-articles-jet%C3%A9s-m%C3%A9nage-se-trouvant-rue-%C3%A0-sale-image152441422

August

01-25-22, 12:22 PM

I would rather give up Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic states then use nukes to save these countries.

Markus

What about Denmark? You'd give up her too?

August wrote: Ya need something strong to clean up those dirty Parisian side streets!

Maybe the Russian Tanks.....! ugly yankee :yeah:

https://fr.dreamstime.com/new-york-city-ny-usa-d%C3%A9chets-articles-jet%C3%A9s-m%C3%A9nage-se-trouvant-rue-%C3%A0-sale-image152441422

:) I can't see or smell any of that from my house!

mapuc

01-25-22, 12:26 PM

What about Denmark? You'd give up her too?

A good question and since I'm against Nukes I have to say yes.

But if there come a war between NATO and Russia nukes will be used-The question is when, where and who.

Markus

August

01-25-22, 12:36 PM

A good question and since I'm against Nukes I have to say yes.

But if there come a war between NATO and Russia nukes will be used-The question is when, where and who.

Markus

Well that's a good question too but on the larger issue I think it makes little difference if ones nation is destroyed and ones citizens are killed by nukes or by conventional weapons. Dead is dead and being subjugated and occupied by a foreign power has only worked out well (so far) for post WW2 Germany and Japan. Ukraine, the Baltic states or anyone else could not expect the same kindness and consideration from the Russian Bear.

mapuc

01-25-22, 12:43 PM

Well that's a good question too but on the larger issue I think it makes little difference if ones nation is destroyed and ones citizens are killed by nukes or by conventional weapons. Dead is dead and being subjugated and occupied by a foreign power has only worked out well (so far) for post WW2 Germany and Japan. Ukraine, the Baltic states or anyone else could not expect the same kindness and consideration from the Russian Bear.

Russia is threatening Europe that they will use nukes

Missiles of this nature have a top range of 5,000km and could hit numerous European capitals if deployed from Russia.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1535811/russia-nuclear-weapons-europe-ukraine-tensions-war-evg

Markus

mapuc

01-25-22, 01:21 PM

Another good question how will we know when hostilities commence ?

Clearly massed Russian tank formations crossing Ukraine's frontiers, or a massive rocket barrage or air strikes against Ukrainian positions, would mark a dramatic escalation in the crisis and a shift to a new phase of the conflict.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60120217

Markus

Jimbuna

01-25-22, 02:32 PM

Jimbuna

01-25-22, 02:51 PM

Catfish

01-25-22, 03:47 PM

Copying one of his Tory predecessors no doubt. [...] No doubt.
Putin must be wetting his trousers laughing.
As soon as he has finished laughing about Baerbock.

Skybird

01-25-22, 05:38 PM

Very good analysis.

https://www-andreas--unterberger-at.translate.goog/2022/01/wie-sich-die-bilder-gleichen-russland-1914-ij-russland-2022/?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp

How the pictures are alike: Russia 1914 – Russia 2022

January 22, 2022 | Author: Andreas Unterberger

Pretty much in this way, the First World War started. At that time, one called it "mobilization" what Russia does now a hundred years later in threatening ways. At that time, Russia has tried to force other countries to force something to something. Also then, Panslavistic expansion efforts were the internal drive for Russian action. At that time, Austria-Hungary wanted to hold off his desire that Serbia should deliver the backers of the murderer of Sarajevo; Today, a whole series of countries between Finland and Ukraine is the aim of which freedom and sovereignty is to be restricted substantially, to which undoubtedly the free decision on accession to defense bundles is heard. At that time, the Russian mobilization triggered an ominous automatic, which ultimately led to a thirty-year world war until 1945. Although (also) in 1914 nobody wanted a big catastrophe. And today?
Is it that time again? Anyone looking for further parallels between 1914 and 2022 is referred to Christopher Clark's "The Sleepwalkers" (https://translate.google.com/website?sl=auto&tl=en&client=webapp&u=https://amzn.to/33ZbyOR) , there he will find hundreds (without the Australian-British historian Clark even once drawing the parallels towards the present).
History can repeat itself - but it doesn't have to repeat itself. Unfortunately, we only know in retrospect whether she did it.
There are currently four levels of difficult questions to which there are no simple answers. But you still have to look for:

What drives Vladimir Putin deep down?
Why is he now, for no apparent reason, raising a formidable force on land and sea between northern Europe and the Black Sea?
What does he want to achieve with it?
How should the West react?

What drives Putin?

In any case, the aggressive Russian mobilization is primarily related to the internal weakness of the Russian leadership. Putin's charisma has, to put it politely, faded. In contrast to his earlier years, he has to have his opponents thrown into a new gulag for fear of their growing popularity. For fear of losing what is left of his popularity, it is no longer enough for him to ignore it to the death.
At the same time, the country's economy has failed completely. It never arrived in the industrial or even the service age. Instead, old communist officials helped themselves in a predatory capitalism. As a result, Russia, like a third world country, continues to have its only strength in the export of raw materials. And in a still mighty army.
These two cards, raw materials and army, are played alternately by Putin in order to distract his own population from the internal weakness and fragility of his system through conflicts with the outside world.
At the same time, he feels humiliated by the West and can transfer this feeling to the population. He doesn't understand that the West - if only out of consideration for its own population - can and will never recognize a dictatorship as qualitatively equivalent.
Russia today is undeniably – again – a dictatorship that is not even willing to meet minimum standards in terms of democracy and the rule of law. And externally, Russia attacks other countries for no reason, stealing territories from them, although it actually guaranteed them the inviolability of their borders in international treaties. Russia is also killing opposition politicians abroad. The state-organized Internet hackers cause billions in damage.
Putin is certainly also a little disappointed that the gentle hints of a climate improvement compared to the US under Donald Trump have very soon faded towards nirvana. Even Trump was soon disillusioned with Russia.
Despite the end of communism, Russia's ideological expansionism also persists. In the process, the Marxist-proletarian urge to spread – with the staff not only remaining the same in Putin’s person – was replaced by a dull ideological mixture: Consisting firstly of Russian nationalism, secondly of racial pan-Slavism, thirdly of a rollback revanchism with nostalgia for Stalin’s greatness and fourthly an anti-democratism along the lines of "Dictators of all countries unite".
Even more absurd, but still relevant, is another motive that is also involved: that is Russian paranoia, which has been proven for many centuries. Though it has long been the largest country on earth, Russia has always felt threatened and encircled, and has always wanted to expand for its own safety. sick but true

Why now without a reason?

This question is almost the easiest to answer: Putin has recognized that the West is currently weaker than ever. For many reasons.

The West is even unable to reason with a medium-sized power like Iran when it comes to nuclear armament.
From Afghanistan to Syria, the West is in massive retreat. The former world police officers are today dominated domestically by a "What does that have to do with us?" feeling. Where Russia or China have not already taken on the role of supreme power, medium-strong powers such as Iran, Turkey and Saudi Arabia can compete for this role.
In the United States, a president governs with recognizable signs of aging.
The United States is also deeply torn and weakened internally by the left-liberal "Woke" movement, the rise of black racism (which seeks revenge on past white racism) and the deep hate divide between Donald Trump's Republicans and Joe Biden's Democrats. The country has lost its stable centre.
At the same time, from Trump to Biden, isolationism is spreading, which is also reminiscent of the early years of the 20th century.
Moscow rightly assesses Europe as even weaker. Whole books could be written about his weakness. Therefore here only in keywords:
With Brexit, the militarily strongest power has been expelled from the EU in frustration.
The rest of the EU is tearing itself apart in an internal colonialism. Left-liberal-woke political correctness seeks to humiliate proud nations like Hungary and Poland for ridiculous crimes (like banning gay and "trans" propaganda in children's and school books) and bring them to their knees.
The millionfold mass migration from Islamic and African countries has massively weakened Western Europe and in some areas turned it into a Third World country.
In addition, there is the massive aging of the EU-Europe, which – very similar to Japan, which was important 40 years ago – is also increasingly marginalizing it demographically.
As a result of the ECB's policy, Europeans are rapidly losing the economic strength they had for a few decades, at least north of the Alps.
French President Macron, the only one capable of a global strategic analysis, is facing the presidential elections in his country with his back to the wall.
The worst sore spot of the European disease, and one that Putin is of course watching particularly closely, is Germany, where the agony of the Merkel years is followed by the ridiculousness of the Scholz government, which does not agree on a single important issue, not even within the coalition.
Europe's final self-weakening is now occurring through Germany's energy policy, despite the fact that energy is at stake a country's most important source of prosperity and strength. It is no coincidence that Russia started mobilizing at the same time as Germany shut down three nuclear power plants. This deprived the largest EU country of its last chance to become independent of Russian gas and oil.

The only thing that seems surprising is that Putin did not wait for any formal occasion where he could at least rhetorically blame foreign countries for the escalation. Rather, he immediately put the thumbscrews on the democratic world as soon as their self-weakening became clear and irreversible: keyword Scholz, keyword Biden, keyword turning off the nuclear power plants. Apparently he fears – quite surprisingly – that the West could regain strength if it waits.

What does Putin want to achieve?

Like the tsars and then even more so Stalin, he wants a belt of occupied states around Russia that are wholly or semi-dependent. He does not want to grant full sovereignty to Finland, Romania, Bulgaria, Ukraine, or Georgia. He wants to make rules for them that restrict them more and more.

Some naïve people, like British Prime Minister Chamberlain in Munich in 1938, think: If you let him have his way and stop being a member of NATO and stationing troops, then you'll have peace, it's not so bad. However, these naïve people do not understand: as soon as these states can no longer defend themselves, it is gradually over for them. Then they will be similar to Belarus, that is, willless satellites of Russia. Belarus also fought for its independence from Moscow for a number of years, until step by step its regime, like Kazakhstan, became completely dependent on Russian troops and thus Russian orders.

Russia, on the other hand, is unwilling to take reciprocal steps: it is not offering for a second similar disarmament, permanent demobilization and a relinquishment of offensive arms along the line of its present sphere of influence as is being demanded of the pro-Western states west of that line.
Such a mutual offer would be worth examining and might even promote peace. The one-sided demand for a recolonization of this area, on the other hand, is not only degrading for the affected peoples and a mockery of the principle of the sovereignty of states under international law, which Moscow always emphasizes, but also clearly promotes war.
One-sided dictates under the threat of a mobilization of more than 100,000 men are a typical preparation for an attack, even if one protests that one does not want to attack under any circumstances. It is precisely these assurances that make Putin's deployment so dangerous. They are meant to appease the West while you arm yourself. Putin was not even able to give an acceptable reason for his mobilization.

What should the West do?

Of course, the West wants and should do everything possible to ensure that war does not break out despite Russian mobilization. But he can make himself much less susceptible to blackmail, because then the Russian demands will become more and more aggressive. Just as the gradual yielding to Adolf Hitler only encouraged him to go further and further. See Saarland, see Austria, see Czechoslovakia.
But instead of the pathetic whimpering about negotiations and the even more ridiculous screeching that Europe should sit at the negotiating table given Europe's inability to act, the following would be urgently needed in the face of clear and clearly unprovoked aggression:

Intensive efforts for Europe's energy independence from Russia. In particular, this would include enlarging the technical structures for importing liquid gas. This would also include the reactivation of the mothballed German nuclear power plants. In other words, instead of saving the planet, the primary concern should be to save Europe. Saving from a dictator who once again sees it as easy prey.
Rapid reconciliation with Great Britain, even if it is no longer in the EU.
Rapid delivery of all necessary defensive weapons to the Ukraine, which is firstly willing to fight and secondly has been crying out for such weapons for a long time. So far, however, left-wing pacifists and friends of Russia have prevented this, especially in Germany. By refusing to provide Ukraine with the weapons it needs for self-defense, Germany's left-wing government has become Russia's most important ally.
Clear determination that any step across borders will result in a permanent halt and dismantling of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline.
Clear listing of other sanctions that will automatically be imposed on Russia in the event of an attack, such as being banned from international financial platforms.
Calling on Ukraine to immediately stop political criminal trials, particularly those against former President Poroshenko.
preparation of a guerrilla war, which the majority of Ukrainians are ready for in the event of a Russian occupation,
Of course, the hardest part is the last necessity, which would probably also be unavoidable in the event of a Russian attack: that would be reconciliation with the Turkish dictator Erdogan. Of course, this is only possible by holding your nose firmly and remembering that even Hitler could only be defeated when the West allied itself with another dictator who was even worse than Erdogan. There is no alternative to this step since Russia, China and Iran have scheduled joint naval maneuvers.

This can only be interpreted as the last step towards a military alliance between the three most dangerous dictatorships in the world. This cooperation also makes it finally clear: the world faces the greatest danger of an escalation overnight, at least since the Cuban Missile Crisis.
PS: Austria is not included in this analysis. Rightly so. After all, there are no traces of a strategically thinking foreign or security policy in this country. Certainly the country, surrounded by nothing but NATO states and Switzerland, can still feel relatively safe. It would be all the more important to have a clear public statement from the mouth of an Austrian Federal President, Federal Chancellor or Foreign Minister, as the President of Finland, the country with the longest direct border to Russia, has just said: "We want to be able to decide for ourselves whether we want to join a security alliance ." And in Sweden, also a neutral country, there has been a demonstrative move towards NATO in recent weeks.
Austrian original:

https://www-andreas--unterberger-at.translate.goog/2022/01/wie-sich-die-bilder-gleichen-russland-1914-ij-russland-2022/?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=de&_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp

mapuc

01-25-22, 07:35 PM

Any day now

The drills involve combat firing exercises with fighter jets, bombers, anti-aircraft systems and ships from the Black Sea and Caspian fleets, the ministry said.

https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20220125-russia-launches-new-military-drills-near-ukraine-in-annexed-crimea

Markus

Gorpet

01-25-22, 10:23 PM

The American's , We have the Democrat Party and a President that is every bit the equivalent of Adolf. The Americans will be there for you, be happy don't worry drink a margarita listen to some Jimmy Buffet or what ever music that makes you feel good.
We have the best military politician's on this Planet. Just look at their military history after 1945 the United States has always in every conflict lost and retreated back to the homeland with Honor. Our political and powerful families will be the first to tell the youth of America today that Russia is not woke and they are the aggressor.

So off to war they will go into battle on the word of a politician whose son or daughter will be back at home playing Call of Duty in the basement leading the charge. And running the battle for the 80 yr old's . Europe if your stupid enough to believe in and trust America you get what you deserve . Let history record Europe's politicians best decisions for their people and a belief in freedom they relied on a foreign country to provide.

Well history will tell the tale.

Reece

01-25-22, 10:31 PM

I wish America would hurry up and invade Australia!! :yep:

Gorpet

01-25-22, 10:57 PM

I wish America would hurry up and invade Australia!! :yep:

Well, Damn let Hollywood and the California crowd into your country. Give them 10 yrs and you will have America. Be careful what you wish for. LOL

August

01-25-22, 11:01 PM

I wish America would hurry up and invade Australia!! :yep:

I thought we already did back in 1942 or so would say the Sidney Shiela's of those days. :D

Gorpet

01-25-22, 11:09 PM

Well, Damn let Hollywood and the California crowd into your country. Give them 10 yrs and you will have America. Be careful what you wish for. LOL

Damn, I always wanted to go to Australia to me your country would be the land of Adventure. I'm not a born and raised city person. Then again am not 25yrs old but,I would like to spend 1yr driving an over the road rig across your country.

Gorpet

01-25-22, 11:47 PM

I thought we already did back in 1942 or so would say the Sidney Shiela's of those days. :D

CONNECTICUT
WHAT THE BLOKES AND SHEILAS READ

Australia is not America. The culture is less uptight, less politically correct, in some respects, and a bit cheeky.

So, it's no surprise that their print media can be a little loosey-goosey by our standards. :up:

Gorpet

01-26-22, 12:40 AM

Keep Australia to your self's if you can. If you let your politicians take over and follow the rest of the world. And they follow the woke wave. You will have nothing but decades of civil unrest and mayhem.
And if this future for your son's and daughters and their children in which they will die. All so the family's that run each and every country on this planet and their family's can survive and live in splendor.
Then keep the politician's and their family's in power. Do you not realize, without the people who make up the administration for these people, not one single politician as a person exhibiting their own personality could survive. Stay Strong or let the civilization you and your forefathers built burn in the ashes of Guilt.

When I quit reading paperback books my spelling sentence structure and comprehension skills really took a dump. So I would like to thank you guy's and if I don't die of the "Virus" or a gunshot wound for looking at a person when I go into the local 7/11 for a Sunday paper I would like to say thanks.

Skybird

01-26-22, 07:26 AM

Sensational turnaround of German policies regarding military deliveries to the Ukraine - this morning it became know that the German government has agreed to deliver the Ukraine 5000 (in words: five thousand!) - helmets.

You read that right. Helmets. :down:

Rumour says they mull a delivery of ten thousand tooth brushes as well. :O:

I a news from yesterday that is hidden behind a paywall so that could only read the first sentences, some European country has called Germany Putin's trojan horse in Europe. It more and more appears so.

If I were a patriotically feeling man, i would need to feel ashamed. Thank God I am as good as free of patriotic sentiments. Rationality is far more important to me.

Catfish

01-26-22, 07:35 AM

Helmets can be used to heat soup :hmmm:

Skybird

01-26-22, 08:08 AM

Helmets can be used to heat soup :hmmm:
Doesn't that turn Urkainian soldiers into sort of offensive weapons that Russia must feel threatened by? I mean - all those grim-looking well-fed strong men eating Maggi bouillon hat conserves their powers that they need to invade Russia?

Could be a violation of export regulations that forbid delivery of offensive weapons into conflict zones. At least the Russian-involved conflict zones. With other such deliveries of "lethal" weapons Germany has less scruples, mysteriously.

mapuc

01-26-22, 08:27 AM

Helmets can be used to heat soup :hmmm:

It reminds me of a scene from the movie A bridge too far.

Markus

Skybird

01-26-22, 09:04 AM

Nikolai Schuravlev, vice speaker of the higher chamber of the Russian parliament, said that if Russia gets excluded from SWIFT, it won't get foreign currencies and thus Europe would be completely excluded from getting any more gas, oil and metals from Russia. A complete trading freeze.

Which is no surprise, of course.

Exocet25fr

01-26-22, 09:20 AM

Skybird wrotr:

Nikolai Schuravlev, vice speaker of the higher chamber of the Russian parliament, said that if Russia gets excluded from SWIFT, it won't get foreign currencies and thus Europe would be completely excluded from getting any more gas, oil and metals from Russia. A complete trading freeze.

That's what Biden wants.......:D

Platapus

01-26-22, 09:54 AM

Helmets can be used to heat soup :hmmm:
https://thumbs.worthpoint.com/zoom/images1/1/0614/29/bill-mauldin-willie-joe-estate_1_95dfbad6fe009b14681a8b6501196e8b.jpg

Anything can and was used to heat soup.

Jimbuna

01-26-22, 10:32 AM

Jimbuna

01-26-22, 11:19 AM

Ukraine’s foreign minister has said Moscow’s buildup of troops near its border is “insufficient for a full-scale offensive”, a day after the embattled country’s president called for calm over the crisis.

Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba’s remarks on Wednesday came as Russian and Ukrainian delegations were meeting in Paris for four-way talks, also attended by senior diplomats from France and Germany.

Aktungbby

01-26-22, 11:43 AM

Helmets can be used to heat soup :hmmm:Not the Kevlar ones U ol stälhelmer!:o:O:

Skybird

01-26-22, 12:02 PM

Not the Kevlar ones U ol stälhelmer!:o:O:
Yes, Kevlar helmets only are for preparing veggie salads. :D

mapuc

01-26-22, 12:09 PM

US President Joe Biden made a telling statement during his press conference on Wednesday, suggesting that a small-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine might not lead NATO to respond with full force. This is in stark contrast to previous guarantees from Brussels to Kiev.

https://www.trtworld.com/magazine/is-biden-really-ok-with-a-minor-incursion-by-russia-into-ukraine-53894

Markus

Aktungbby

01-26-22, 12:15 PM

Helmets can be used to heat soup :hmmm:

Not the Kevlar ones U ol stälhelmer!:o:O:

Yes, Kevlar helmets only are for preparing veggie salads. :D PROOF! U 2 Kräut Klücks R Prüf "armies travel on their stomachs" Never mind brain protection! :Kaleun_Salivating: https://www.warrelics.eu/forum/attachments/world-steel-helmets/1530587d1631124033t-military-helmet-turned-cooking-pot-7bfc2788-de87-4a58-a7bb-df4473c837e0.jpeg? https://youtu.be/QFS_aAVfn_Y how PATHEtic!!:haha:

August

01-26-22, 01:31 PM

Anybody who claims to have made soup or salad in the old M1 steel helmet is either lying or stupid enough to cook food on something covered with thick lead based paint. Anything made in it would taste just awful and not to mention probably be tinged green! Yech!

Catfish

01-26-22, 02:29 PM

Not the Kevlar ones U ol stälhelmer!:o:O:
Of course they got the old ones from those famous times back then, after all they already know 'em well.

Aktungbby

01-26-22, 03:31 PM

mapuc

01-26-22, 06:33 PM

It's up to the Russians now-How will Putin react to the note send by Blinken.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the proposal offers "a serious diplomatic path forward, should Russia choose it".

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60145159

I hope Russia choose peace.

Markus

Reece

01-26-22, 10:28 PM

Well that's no fun Markus!! :D

Jimbuna

01-27-22, 06:24 AM

Somebody is going to have to 'blink' soon.

mapuc

01-27-22, 08:12 AM

Why not- NATO is expanding Eastward so why shouldn't Russia have the same right in Latin America

Russian President Vladimir Putin has agreed with the leaders of Cuba, Venezuela, and Nicaragua to develop partnerships in a range of areas, including stepping up military collaboration, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has announced.

https://www.bignewsnetwork.com/news/272234411/russia-unveils-military-plans-in-cuba--latin-america

Markus

Exocet25fr

01-27-22, 08:51 AM

YES!!!, WHY NOT ?:O:

Skybird

01-27-22, 10:03 AM

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CtMLB5gWEAAWRtM?format=jpg&name=medium

https://nationalinterest.org/sites/default/files/styles/hero-320w/public/main_images/visualizing_a2_ad_map_300dpi_beige_rgb1.jpg?itok=f YMsbys0

Those S-400s are said to be nasty even for stealthed airplanes. They will be able to track the fioghters in many phases of flight and the longer they can do that the more informaiton they will gather about possible weaknesses of these aircraft. In a serious missile deplaoyment with all the systems radars set up on ground, I think it is the more serious threat to an F-35 the closer the plane is to the radare. And these radars can reach out quite some - up to 1800km wide and 1200km high. However, a SEAD mission always is a teamwork involving team tactics.

And lets not forget that they have stationed nuclear tactical missiles in Kalinigrad as well, that could reach as far as Berlin and Eastern Germany. In short time.
I dont worry that much about the Ukraine. I am worried over the Kalingrad enclave. It also a jump pad for a conventional ground offensive. A Blitz, that is. If the Russians would mean serious business, NATO would have no chance to defend the Baltic states and Poland. The reaction times needed would not allow that.

https://www.dw.com/en/russia-deploys-nuclear-capable-missile-system-in-kaliningrad-reports/a-42474925

Skybird

01-27-22, 10:35 AM

Maybe I should make clear that in the above I did not want to philosophize about the specifics of any Western air war against Russia, but that I wanted toi point out that Russia is engaged in a strategy not really unaggressive forward deployment since years, and not just in the Ukraine, but along its complete Western borders. That incldues nuclear wepaons (tactical nukes) that have much shorter flight times to target than ICBMs.

Aktungbby

01-27-22, 11:14 AM

Why not- NATO is expanding Eastward so why shouldn't Russia have the same right in Latin America

https://www.bignewsnetwork.com/news/272234411/russia-unveils-military-plans-in-cuba--latin-america

MarkusGood heavens man...that would violate the Monroe Doctrine ...although we recently allowed a suspicious Iranian vessel to go to Venezuela, the current hotbed of (failed) Marxist doctrine in the Western Hemisphere after the Soviet post-missile crisis in '1960's Castro regime in Cuba...Ché Guevera having failed dismally in Bolivia. Rule 1 of said doctrine is that the Atlantic Ocean is an English speaking lake with a primary choke point at the Panama Canal ...and is the Eastern moat of the American castle...:yep::O:

Jimbuna

01-28-22, 08:45 AM

US President Joe Biden has warned there is a "distinct possibility" Russia might invade Ukraine next month, the White House says.

Russia meanwhile says it sees "little ground for optimism" in resolving the crisis after the US rejected Russia's main demands.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60164537

Catfish

01-28-22, 03:09 PM

^ Invasion at february 20ieth as far as i heard :hmmm:

This is a long video, but every minute worth it. Maybe not the first 5 or so.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8X7Ng75e5gQ

I take it only Wolfovitz and his ilk will even understand what happened and how the US did that, with NATO expanding eastward.

Putin 2007: "I think it is obvious that NATO expansion does not have any relation with the modernization of the Alliance itself or with ensuring security in Europe"

Putin's Munich speech, 2007. It is all there.

"We are seeing a great and greater disdain for the basic principles of international law. And independent legal norms are coming increasingly closer to one state's legal system [the US's – GOD HELP US!] [...] the US have overstepped its national borders in every way."
Which you have to see in the overall context of this speech. Denmark, Sweden, Germany, all else: the US cannot be trusted. No warning for England, they do what they are told by the US all the way.
Maybe the rest of Europe can and should indeed get a bit of distance from the US, and "NATO". This treaty is worth nothing apart from supporting the US in every possible way. We saw Trump, we should go.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hQ58Yv6kP44

mapuc

01-28-22, 03:54 PM

Russian and Belarusian shall have a joint military exercise near the Belarusian Ukrainian border. This exercise is to be held between 10th and 20th of February
At same time the Russian navy are planning a major sea exercise with 140 warship.

Markus

Catfish

01-28-22, 03:58 PM

^ Maybe your post was not intended as an "answer" to my post above, but please listen to Pozner's speech; Belarus and Yeltsin's Russia disbanded in 1990, effectively putting the CCCP and Gorbatchev to rest.
That they do what they do now, again, after the disbanding back then, cannot exactly be blamed on Russia. There is no trust in the US or "West" anymore. Even if Lukashenko is an idiot.

Putin said that "Our mistake is that we trusted you too much. And your mistake was to take advantage of that.". This is over. Russia will not allow any more country neighbouring Russia to join NATO.

Skybird

01-28-22, 04:06 PM

^ :up:

Not having listend to all of it in full length, its quite long, but what there was, aims at a direction of argument that I could understand, and mostly share. Confirms what I try to get across: to understand and preict Russia, it is not so relevant what we think the Russians should want - relevant is what thing slook like iof watching them through their eyes. Thats something that Western media and politics have been too arrogant on the past 20 years. We had "won" the cold war, hadn'T we, we are the triumphant victors, right? We were so full of orusleves that we even declared th eend of history (Fukujama), and by that mad eourselve back then the ending poujnt and climax of historic evolution.

The dope shone out of us so brightly that we got blinded by staring into our own shine.

mapuc

01-28-22, 04:07 PM

Maybe your post was not intended as an "answer" to my post above, but please listen to Pozner's speech; Belarus and Yeltsin's Russia disbanded in 1990, effectively putting the CCCP and Gorbatchev to rest.
That they do what they do now, again, after the disbanding back then, cannot exactly be blamed on Russia. There is no trust in the US or "West" anymore. Even if Lukashenko is an idiot.
Putin said that "our problem is that we trusted you too much". This is over. Russia will not allow any more country neighbouring Russia to join NATO.

Yes it was this " Invasion at february 20ieth as far as i heard" that made me post my answer to you.
I don't have time to watch almost two hours speech. Maybe they are right it is the West that have created Putin or maybe not.

Markus

Catfish

01-28-22, 04:18 PM

It is not about Putin, or blaming the US! Please, take your time and listen, it is all very clear.
Pozner's speech is only 45 minutes, rest is discussion.

mapuc

01-28-22, 04:30 PM

It is not about Putin, or blaming the US! Please, take your time and listen, it is all very clear.
Pozner's speech is only 45 minutes, rest is discussion.

I am listerning to him-Are about 17 minutes into the video.
(But due to my bad short memory I will have forgot what he spoke about in detail after)

Edit
Now I remember why I wrote "Maybe they are right it is the West that have created Putin or maybe not."

That's almost the title of the video - How The United States created Vladimir Putin. I forgot it was United States and not the West.
End edit

Markus

Jimbuna

01-29-22, 09:07 AM

Boris Johnson will telephone Russian President Vladimir Putin and visit eastern Europe in the coming days as the UK steps up its diplomatic efforts to resolve the Ukraine border crisis.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-60179127

Looks like everything is going to be alright then.

We can all relax, safe in the knowledge Putin will enjoy being entertained by the clown and let sleeping dogs lie.

mapuc

01-29-22, 09:30 AM

Regarding this video clip.

Can't remember each word he said in those 45 minutes he spoke to the audience.

I can remember thinking Aha that's why Russia wants NATO to leave Eastern Europe and not just preventing Ukraine to become a member of NATO.

Then he talked about a kind of a joint deal between Russia and NATO.

Why not let Russia become an almost member of NATO.

Meaning-They do not take part in each exercise but they will be protected by the 5th article-If someone attack Russia NATO send military help.

Markus

Skybird

01-29-22, 10:51 AM

Why not let Russia become an almost member of NATO.

We have been there, over two decades ago. They said No.

Meaning-They do not take part in each exercise but they will be protected by the 5th article-If someone attack Russia NATO send military help.
Since when does Russia need protection? They think they need protection against only one - NATO's ever closing territorial embrace.

See here:
https://www.subsim.com/radioroom/showpost.php?p=2789835&postcount=343
Despite the end of communism, Russia's ideological expansionism also persists. In the process, the Marxist-proletarian urge to spread – with the staff not only remaining the same in Putin’s person – was replaced by a dull ideological mixture: Consisting firstly of Russian nationalism, secondly of racial pan-Slavism, thirdly of a rollback revanchism with nostalgia for Stalin’s greatness and fourthly an anti-democratism along the lines of "Dictators of all countries unite".
Even more absurd, but still relevant, is another motive that is also involved: that is Russian paranoia, which has been proven for many centuries. Though it has long been the largest country on earth, Russia has always felt threatened and encircled, and has always wanted to expand for its own safety. Sick but true.

mapuc

01-29-22, 11:02 AM

^ I don't feel for watching these 45 minutes once again-Just to see what word he used instead of my own word deal.

There was something Putin want AND i'm not talking about NATO shall leave Eastern Europe or preventing Ukraine to become a member.

I just can't remember the word or the sentence he used together with this word.

Markus

Jimbuna

01-29-22, 11:11 AM

Top US General Mark Milley has said that a Russian invasion of Ukraine would be "horrific" and would lead to a significant number of casualties.

Gen Milley described the build-up of 100,000 Russian troops near Ukraine's border as the largest since the Cold War.

But US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin said conflict could still be avoided through the use of diplomacy.

Russia denies plans to invade and says US support for Ukraine is a threat.

At a news conference at the Pentagon on Friday, Gen Milley - US President Joe Biden's most senior military officer - warned that the scale of Russia's forces near its border with Ukraine meant an attack would have severe consequences.

"If that was unleashed on Ukraine, it would be significant, very significant, and it would result in a significant amount of casualties," said the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff.

Fighting in dense urban areas would be "horrific, it would be terrible", Gen Milley added.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-60177929

Skybird

01-29-22, 11:35 AM

Maybe they want not to conquer all Ukraine, but instead blitz Kiev, install a puppet regime, and/or declare the Donbass an "independent" (Russian-friendly) brother state.

The announced manouvers in Belarus saw them accumulating severe troop strength in Belarus. Now, looking at the map, if that force blitzes directly south, it bypasses Kiewv in its West and lands in the Western Ukraine, able to block any possible push of NAOT ground forces that for whatever an insane reason would rush in from the West. It also blocks logistical supplies coming in from that direction. Both ground and air transports.

At their border with Belarus, they seem to have two big formations. If these move directly south as well, they land right in Kiev. By car: 3 hours. In war: longer, but it would be a Blitz nevertheless.

They have another couple of formations that embrace the Donbass like a rescent. There they could pince-attack the region and embrace it to death, so to speak.

Their small force in Moldavia completes the sealing against the West.

S-400s are operating in the area.

The Russian widespread deployment along these three likely axis of attack also force the Ukraine to thin out its troop lines because it must cover a longer frontline. The Russian on the other hand have the freeedom to amass and focus wherever they want.

All the time Mariupol in the south near the Crimean is at risk, too.

The Russians have almost perfect attack positions now, and have maximised their options, their degrees of decision freedom. Whatever they want to do and which road they prefer to chose from here on: they are in the idealt starting block. If those maps in Western media get it right, they have set up exactly like I would have done it. The Ukrainians however must be everywhere, and thus their lines are thin everywhere: at least as long as they do not will to give up ground, according to the old wisdom of that he who wants to defend everything, will loose evertyhing. They still talk as if they think they could get back the Crimean, so I am not optimstic about their sense of realism. But maybe thats just acting of theirs.

mapuc

01-29-22, 12:00 PM

< Skybird wrote "All the time Mariupol in the south near the Crimean is at risk, too."

I think you are correct on this

More than 20 ships of the Black Sea Fleet had departed from Sevastopol and Novorossiysk for exercises in the Black Sea, the Press Service of the Southern Military district said in a Monday news release.

https://news.usni.org/2022/01/26/140-russian-navy-warships-drilling-across-europe-middle-east-as-ukraine-tensions-simmer

Again I remembered wrong I thought these naval exercise was to be held in February and not now in the end of January.

Markus

mapuc

01-29-22, 06:29 PM

It is not about Putin, or blaming the US! Please, take your time and listen, it is all very clear.
Pozner's speech is only 45 minutes, rest is discussion.

OT
I have seen the entire video-I can only say this

He likes Putin very much -That is what I get out of watching his speech, his answers to the question being asked.
End OT

Markus

les green01

01-29-22, 07:10 PM

you boys ain't got this mess clean up yet Far has trusting US well consider there a lot of US boys planted over there from Two World wars that was started over there i say the track record not too hot far has i'm concern US and Britian should tell the rest of the world to go blank theirselfs

Rockstar

01-29-22, 07:16 PM

“Democracy begins with elections,” Mr. Gorbachev said. “Elections, accountability and turnover.” Mr. Gorbachev feels that he put Russia on the path toward being a functional democracy, only to have Mr. Putin block its progress. “Russia has a long way to go to usher in a new system of values, to create and provide for the proper functioning of the institutions and mechanisms of democracy — the institutions of civil society.”

Skybird

01-30-22, 01:48 PM

Die Welt writes:

No one in the West knows what Russian President Vladimir Putin plans to do with the soldiers and weapons he is moving toward the West. Moscow denies that it is planning an invasion of Ukraine.

Thanks to spy satellites and other reconnaissance methods, however, the intelligence services have a very good overview of the current situation. And this looks grim - especially when combined with the analyses that have been produced on Putin himself. An overview:

The deployment

Intelligence agencies from the U.S. and other NATO countries estimate that between 112,000 to 120,000 Russian troops are now stationed in areas not far from Ukraine. The troops have been joined by heavy weapons, tanks and, most recently, landing ships and medical service units with blood reserves, according to conversations with Western intelligence officials.

More Russian soldiers are expected to join a military maneuver starting soon in Belarus, north of Ukraine. They will be accompanied by a transfer of S-400 air defense systems and Sukhoi Su-35 fighter aircraft.

There are no indications of an end to the deployment, a senior Western intelligence official said. Specifically, he said, it is considered likely that the number of tactical battalion groups (BTGs), currently estimated at about 60, could be increased to more than 100 by mid-February. BTGs are fast and highly flexible combat units with 600 to 1000 soldiers.

The BTGs could be supported in the event of a Russian attack by the estimated 35,000 or so armed forces of pro-Kremlin separatists in the Donbass. They are not included in the more than 100,000 Russian troops.

The military options

If the buildup continues as feared, military experts believe Russia could be in a position to launch a full-scale invasion followed by occupation in as little as two weeks. However, it is also considered possible that only half of the country will be taken, or that only a corridor will be created from the already annexed Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea toward Moldova and Romania.

Other options include an official move into the Donbass, already controlled by the separatists, where Russian soldiers would then see themselves as a kind of peacekeeping force - possibly even after an expansion of the separatist areas. A possible attack on Ukraine's capital, Kiev, could be carried out via Belarus, but also via northeastern Ukraine, according to analysts.

Whether Putin chooses one of these options - and if so, which one - is likely to depend on the willingness to take risks, on the one hand, and on the actual goal he wants to achieve, on the other, according to the analysts. Any attack is likely to be accompanied by extensive cyberattacks on the energy supply system, state command and control offices, and the telecommunications system, TV and radio stations. "The goal would be to quickly isolate the country and cause a lot of chaos and anxiety among as many people as possible," explains an intelligence official.

The possible motivations

Why might Putin risk attacking Ukraine? From the perspective of Western services, it's quite clear. "He wants Ukraine back," is the analysis. From Putin's point of view, Russians and Ukrainians are one people, Ukraine does not exist at all, and neither does an independent Ukrainian people. For this reason, Putin advocates the return of Ukraine to Russia or at least to its sphere of influence.

The glimmer of hope is that, precisely because of this way of thinking, Putin is probably not interested in destroying the country too much in the event of an attack. One likely option is therefore for Russia to launch an offensive lasting only a few days or weeks and then come to the negotiating table. There it could present the other negotiators with a choice: Either there is a surrender, or the offensive continues. It is possible that Putin's main goal is to remove pro-Western Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. The Kremlin leader seems to be personally quite fixated on Selenskyj, it is said.

The pretext for a limited military operation in eastern Ukraine, according to the services, could be Putin's claim that he needs to protect the Russian minority from an impending "genocide" by "insane Ukrainian fascists." Putin's narrative would then be: he had no other choice.

Russia's regular protestations that it has no plans to attack are not taken seriously by the intelligence services - especially since Putin himself threatened shortly before Christmas: "In case of continuation of the rather aggressive line of our Western colleagues, we will respond with adequate military-technical measures."

The weather and the Olympics

Some experts recently expressed their conviction that the suitable window of opportunity for a large-scale Russian attack is likely to close for the time being at the end of February. After that, as the snow melts, the ground softens and tanks and other heavy vehicles would have a very difficult time making headway. Other experts, however, warn against thinking that way. They point out that Russian forces have large quantities of modern guided missiles and could parachute large numbers of troops to their destination. "They would find a way to deal with the melting snow," they say.

On the other hand, it is considered possible that the Beijing Winter Olympics, which begin next Friday, could play a role in upcoming decisions. The reasoning: An attack during that time is likely to damage Putin's image even more, turning Chinese President Xi Jinping against him in addition to the entire West.

Russia has backed a U.N. resolution that an Olympic truce would be in place during the Beijing Olympics (Feb. 4-20) and Paralympics (March 4-13). "Under the Olympic truce, all sides are called upon to cease hostilities throughout the duration of the Games," UN Secretary-General António Guterres said recently.Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (http://www.DeepL.com/Translator) (free version)

mapuc

01-30-22, 01:57 PM

It can go three ways and in none of them will there be war between Russia and NATO.

1. Russia occupy entire Ukraine and they start in the beginning of next week.
2. Russia occupy half of Ukraine and they start.....next week
3. Putin understand he will not win anything by start a war on Ukraine so once again he withdraw his troops.

If number 1 or 2 happens the only thing we will see coming from NATO, EU and UN is strong words.

Markus

Jimbuna

01-30-22, 02:10 PM

There is a "real threat" of Russia invading Ukraine, Foreign Secretary Liz Truss has warned, but it is "very unlikely" British soldiers would be deployed to fight in any conflict.

Instead, she said the UK was sending weapons to Ukraine and "strengthening" its sanction system so oligarchs close to the Kremlin had "nowhere to hide".

She said the UK was also offering extra support to nearby Nato allies.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-60188690

Skybird

01-30-22, 04:06 PM

Due to weather and olympic games considerations, the currently most likely attack timetable probably sees it starting in the last third of February - after the Olympics, and before the ice and snow melts.

Although I think muddy ground will not really stop the Russians, if they mean serious play. They are strong in air mobile infantry: seizing strongholds that guard a path left and right inside which the slowed down armour then advances, geometrically comparable to like the Germans did in France 1940 with ground forces exclusively. I would expect any Russian attack to be conducted in a highly mobile manner. At least they would try that.

Advancing not with armour but airmobile infantry and parachuters may also pull some of the teeth of those Western ATGM deliveries.

Donbass region and Kiev would be the main objectives, I think. Maybe establishing a land conneciton to Moldavia as well, which then would probably put Mariupol at risk, too.

If Putin decides for war, that is. Civil society in Russia seems not to be enthusiastic about that scenario.

mapuc

01-30-22, 05:19 PM

^ Once again I have to admit you may be correct on your statement. I forgot that Russia shall have this exercise with Belarus in February-I doubt Russia will attack Ukraine before this exercise.

I think this exercise is a cover-up for an attack on Ukraine from Belarus-Here Belarusian and Russian troops will join forces.

Secondly
Who says he wouldn't start the war during the Olympics ?
Russia has voted for truce during the games-Well Putin has also said Russia will not attack Ukraine.

Markus

Rockstar

01-30-22, 06:01 PM

I gotta ask when was the first or last time Putin ever said invading the Donbas or Ukraine was on his list of things to do? Frankly I think for whatever reason the rhetoric of invasion is being ginned up by us so we have an excuse to invade. :D

Anyway the only thing I ever heard Putin say when he came into power was he wanted Russia to be a world leader again, to restore Russia to having some level of say in regional and world politics. To borrow a phrase he wanted to make Russia great again. But NATO SecGen has stated quite clearly that is not going to happen, PERIOD.

Putin can paint himself and Russia a victim all he wants. But the U.S. didn’t place anyone under some kind of spell or put a gun to the heads NATO members or these former Soviet Block countries to join NATO. They are all to aware what it would be like if Russia was in charge of that region again. They don’t want any part of that and who could blame them?

Skybird

01-31-22, 07:08 AM

The Neue Zürcher Zeitung writes:

The "military exercise" of Russia and Belarus, originally announced only for February or March, is already in full swing. In its first phase, a five-digit number of Russian military personnel have arrived in Belarus in the past two weeks. If the official account is correct and this is indeed just an exercise, it would be the largest military maneuver in Russia's recent history, along with the other operations around Ukraine. All five of the country's regional commands are now involved in the deployment. Particularly unusual is the deployment of units from the Far East over distances of up to 9,000 kilometers.

It seems implausible that such an unprecedented large-scale maneuver should have been decided on short notice and that those responsible should then have brought forward the start by several weeks. The plan for it probably matured much earlier. It could just as well be a scenario for a military action against Ukraine or for the occupation of Belarus.

What is especially suspicious is that the official information about the planned exercises does not match the real operations. A map distributed by the Belarusian Ministry of Defense lists five exercise sites and four air bases. They are all located in western or central areas of Belarus. However, conspicuous troop concentrations are also underway in the southeast of the country, 200 kilometers from the nearest official exercise site. This region is of strategic importance, as it lies directly on the border with Ukraine and could serve as a deployment area for a rapid advance toward Kiev. The Ukrainian capital can be reached by the shortest route from the border in less than 140 kilometers.

This does not yet mean that the Kremlin has decided to invade, but it is a clear threatening gesture. An analysis by the NZZ of more than fifty videos posted by Belarusian private citizens and other posts on social networks proves that the concealed troop deployment in the southeast is militarily significant. It includes units of the 35th and 36th Armies, which are normally stationed on the border with Mongolia and China, respectively. Soldiers from some of these units were already deployed during Russia's military intervention in eastern Ukraine after 2014.

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (http://www.DeepL.com/Translator) (free version)
The paper further describes many videos and photos by the civil population that ciriculate in social media and that show that the Russian have gathered even forces from the Far East in tactically relevant positions in Belarus and at the Ukrainian border from which they can blitz into Kiev, as I suspected, and that are hundreds of kilometers away from the declared military manouvers areas.

https://www.nzz.ch/international/irrefuehrung-rund-um-russlands-militaeruebung-truppen-bringen-sich-in-stellung-gegen-die-ukraine-ld.1667245

Other photos from the last days show that the Russian field the latest of their weapon and platform technology, and in numbers.

No, I fear they are not there just to play.

Rockstar

01-31-22, 07:30 AM

For now, the only thing Putin can do to prevent Ukraine’s incorporation into the E.U./NATO is to preserve an already ongoing low intensity war in the Donbass. Though the threat of invasion is real, he doesn’t have too and I don’t think he will. He just needs to keep The Ukraine a corrupt unstable crap hole that nobody in NATO wants to touch with a ten foot barge pole until he can find a way to install a friendly government.

Skybird

01-31-22, 07:59 AM

Thats how I tick like, too. But my conclusions are different.

He probably will either recognise Donbass as a sovereign brother state and support it with Russian troop presence, which techcially is an invasion of curren Ukrainian territory, and/or he will blitz Kiev, to install a puppet regime. He will need to act as fast as possible onec the military movement on the ground and the border crossing has started, to get his wanted regime as fast as possible - to avoid the Ukrainian society forming up guerilla-style resistence, and to not getting bogged down in endless urban battles. For this, a temporary military seizing of territories as fast as possible might be necessary, from a Russian point of view.

As I said two days ago, look up a map: the "manouver" forces in Belarus will move south, bypass Kiev in its West, and block the Westenr Ukrainian territory, they can prevent Western interference - unlikely - coming from the West, also can then turn east and attack Kiev from the West. The forces located in forward positions right now where the borders of Ukraine, Belarus and Russia all come together like the centre of a Mercedes star, must just move south for a few hours, then they are in Kiev. The forces at the Donbass region already embrace the area in form of a crescent, guess what they can do - they can attack from North, East, almost South, and from within (separatists).

Putin also has an interests to make quick business to reduce the risk that unrest at home will raise threats from Russian civil society. He will try to strike super fast if the Russian forces can do that, he will strike hard, and stay focussed on his strategic objectives.

If he goes "all in", we may also see a Russian drive along the Southern coast, beyond Mariupol, but towards Moldavia, to establish a land corridor not just to the Crimean, but to Moldavia, and to cut off the Ukraine from access to the sea. A signfiicant capability of the Black sea fleet for amphibious operations and sending in marine infantry via amphibious assault, raises the chances in Russian favour.

If anything of this happens, it will be just another 100% wipe-out blow to german foreign diplomacy and German Russophilia. And Bubble-Scholz' empty face will become even emptier.

Skybird

01-31-22, 08:08 AM

"Look how reasonable and helpful and friendly the Russians can be!":yeah:

Russia takes invitation for easy PR scoring. The fishermen in Ireland may celebrate. But the real winner is Russia.

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/01/31/europe/ireland-fishermen-russia-navy-intl/index.html

Jimbuna

01-31-22, 08:56 AM

Jimbuna

01-31-22, 09:15 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2boTNtp0WgI

mapuc

01-31-22, 09:33 AM

We all expect Putin to give the order to invade Ukraine-But who says he has to ? The build-up of troops near the borders could also mean they send a very clear signal to NATO and Ukraine.

I hope I'm right on this standpoint-I don't want war.

Edit
Denmark has said they will provide Ukraine with weapons if Russia attack Ukraine.
Here I'm thinking-What if the war is over within 3-5 days. Denmark wouldn't have enough time to send weapon to Ukraine

"I do not want to rule out [sending military equipment to Ukraine], and I have no principled opposition to us doing so," Frederiksen said.

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-defense/3394591-danish-pm-not-ruling-out-supply-of-weapons-to-ukraine.html

End edit

Markus

Skybird

01-31-22, 11:20 AM

"The hope dies last" - while it burns time as quickly as an M1 turbine burns gas.

"We wanted to help but we ran out of time!", I expect them saying afterwards. How comfortable! Give us more of this thing called hope, it comes most welcomed!

Like Bejing wants Taiwan returning to China, Moscow wants to bring the Ukraine back home into Russia.

mapuc

01-31-22, 11:55 AM

Isn't there a saying My enemies enemy is my friend.

While US President Joe Biden got personal and threatened sanctions on Vladimir Putin if he invaded Ukraine, Chinese President Xi Jinping tendered a warm welcome to the Russian leader as a guest of honour at the grand Winter Olympics opening ceremony in Beijing on Friday.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3165341/china-russia-ties-west-forces-them-together-xi-and-putin-show?module=lead_hero_story&pgtype=homepage

Markus

Jimbuna

01-31-22, 01:07 PM

Rockstar

01-31-22, 01:17 PM

UK foreign secretary Liz Truss told the British parliament the government is “considering options for further deployments of our armed forces to reassure and protect allies on Nato’s eastern flank”.

She says London will consider supplying Nato with more “fast jets, warships and military specialists”.

“The UK is determined to lead the way through deterrence and diplomacy”.

:haha:

I guess I should have added gaining public approval to feed the military industrial complex and arms sales.

I gotta ask when was the first or last time Putin ever said invading the Donbas or Ukraine was on his list of things to do? Frankly I think for whatever reason the rhetoric of invasion is being ginned up by us so we have an excuse to invade. :D

mapuc

01-31-22, 03:49 PM

A friend of mine on fb asked in a bulletin if there's a war on its way in Europe.
One of her other friends posted this comment

"Russia has no interest in attacking Ukraine. Incidentally, the troops that have been lined up are just a recurring annual exercise event."

An interesting point of view. I didn't knew the soldiers was there due to some annual exercise.

Markus

Jeff-Groves

01-31-22, 04:22 PM

There will be a War at some point in time. That's just Europe!
One of the bloodiest battle grounds in the World probably!

That's why the Off-World Species don't want to be known!
If We kill our own? They don't want to be next on the list!

Humans on this planet kill for the stupidest reasons!
Your a different color, race, religion, and add all kinds of reasons!
Then some kill just because they can.

The USA and others need to back/shut the hell up. I believe they are pushing the issue.
Russia didn't need such a massive build up to invade! And would have been to their advantage to invade with 10,000 troops!
And the USA says they have 8,500 Troops ready? Really? Against 100,000+?
Even with Troops already stationed in Europe.
They probably call it 'Operation Custer'.

Catfish

01-31-22, 04:50 PM

^ so true :03:
That's why the Off-World Species don't want to be known! [...]
Please let us out of this :O:

mapuc

01-31-22, 05:03 PM

Off this I'm convinced.

Thou longer the war will be the higher is the risc that one or more country who's NATO member will get involved directly.

It start with weapon supply...then they send drill personal...and last ordinary troops.

Markus

Aktungbby

01-31-22, 05:04 PM

They probably call it 'Operation Custer'.That'd be politically incorrect. It should be Operation Greasy Grass. (The Sioux name for LBH)Cause the grass'd sure be greasy after the Ruskies got done blitz'n our token Spartan effort.:oops::shifty::dead:

Jeff-Groves

01-31-22, 05:08 PM

Operation Alamo
Operation Bataan
They can call it anything they want the results would be the same!
This would not be a battle at Thermopylae.

Jimbuna

02-01-22, 10:07 AM

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has praised Western backing in the face of Russia's military build-up and announced an expansion of the army.

"Support for Ukraine is the biggest since 2014," he told MPs on a day of visits by British, Polish and Dutch leaders.

Top US and Russian officials are due to hold fresh talks on the crisis.

Mr Zelensky told parliament a new "format of political co-operation" was being created with the UK and Poland.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said it would cover security as well as trade, investment and energy.

Speaking in Kyiv, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki promised defensive weaponry including drones and anti-aircraft missiles but also humanitarian aid. Poland has said it is preparing for a potential big influx of Ukrainian refugees if Russia attacks.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60212716

Words are cheap to create then below one can see the reality.

https://i.postimg.cc/sx3K8nJh/122915093-ukraine-russia-military-inf640v2-nc.png (https://postimg.cc/VrHj0Wpf)

blackswan40

02-01-22, 01:54 PM

But 1941 the mighty Russian Army had the same number of tanks that the armies of world had added together and in aircraft it outnumbered the rest of the worlds airforces added together.
But three days into the German invasion of the Russian Mother land the Russian Airforce had lost 40% of its strength also at two tank engagements at Minsk and Smolensk 6000 Russian tanks were lost
also i read somewhere that the attacking force has to outnumber the defending force by five to one if the defender is well dug in in prepared defensive posistions.

Jimbuna

02-01-22, 02:17 PM

With the advancements in modern day technology I think you'll find todays Russian military machine a totally different proposition.

nikimcbee

02-01-22, 02:20 PM

Jeff-Groves

02-01-22, 02:34 PM

Well.
The 7th Cavalry didn't figure The Original Home Land Security Force and Sitting Bull any kind of threat.
It's not what Confidence They give you. It's what they inspire in their Troops.

Skybird

02-01-22, 02:49 PM

We know that in the early years of the conflict the Ukrainian forces were few, badly equipped, and trained according to Sovjet doctrine - the Russian thus klnow very well how the Ukrianians would reatc and what they would do and how much time it would take them.

Since then, the Ukrainian troop levels were raised from a few thousand to over one hundred thousand (I red a few weeks ago). They have access to better equipment, and got raining and aid by US and British militrary advisors. They do not tick by Sovjet tactical doctrine anymore. At least that is what is being claimed.

On the other hand, the Russian forces have a massive modernization behind them, and they too do not fight by Sovjet tactics anymore. They field some of the most advanced military kit in the world, have huge advantages in ATGM and SAM missiles, also better tanks and ammunition. It must be expected that they learned lessons from the Goergia war, too. What has survive duntil today is their huge favouring of superior artillery and missile firepower, and RPG-style systems at every level of unit formation. They are obsessed with these. And it pays dividends for them.

They should have better ELINT and jamming capacities. I would even assume they could jam a battlefield in the Ukraine to levels where the Ukrainian networks would become deaf from silence.

A massive, huge capability in cyber warfare also speak for the Russians.

Air defences that provide them with area-denial capabilities even against modern Western systems and platforms.

Air superiority anyway.

The Ukrainians cannot win this, they can only impose a price to pay, and get some delays.

The Russians also must not deal with y hypersensitive moralising public at home. If they feel like wantign to flattren a too impetrtzinet obstacle, they can and will do it where a Western force would need to consider politics and the geneala mood at home.

Last but not least, the Russians are masters of media and public opinion manipulation, and psychops.

I have high respect for some of their fighter models and latest tanks. These command respect indeed. I would assume strongly that the changed and fundamentally raised capabiilties in communication and networking is being reflected by according changes and training at the tactical level. They are not dumb, there is no reason why we would want to assume that they have not learned form what went not so well with their tanks in Georgia 2014.

mapuc

02-01-22, 03:17 PM

Skybird wrote
"The Ukrainians cannot win this, they can only impose a price to pay, and get some delays"

Thou longer they can keep the battle going and prevent Russia from invading the country thou better is the chance they will get military aid and perhaps help from special forces/troops from abroad.

Markus

mapuc

02-01-22, 06:54 PM

In his first significant comments on the crisis in several weeks, he said America's goal was to use a confrontation as a pretext to impose more sanctions on Russia.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60220702

Markus

blackswan40

02-01-22, 09:42 PM

I wonder if theres a Ukrainian version of this if military hardware is in short supply and your enemy as five times your force givem both barrels of your humor we did in 1940 when invaison loomed large and the B.E.F. had only brought thier riffels home and the only fully equiped division in England at the time was Canadian in late June 1940

The Video below is early 1940 as the B.E.F. arrived in France

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hSSBQWbF7R8

blackswan40

02-01-22, 10:53 PM

with any luck it might all be a Russian papper tiger so to speak Mr Crazy Ivan
uping the anti hoping to drive a wedge between nato countries to see what consessions he can get using Nordstream II gas pipeline so Germany and France dont want to get too involved in the Ukrianian Crisis and America not wanting any more military adventures but then theres other consequences Sweden moving closer to Nato and Poland doubling the size of their army within three years and buying more F-35's from America
and all nato members states increase military spending upto 5% plus of their GDP so a new cold war begins

Sooner or later mr Putin's going to as we say up north chit or get off the pot! if you've dug a big hole deeper and deeper but you hav'nt got a ladder its very hard getting out of a big hole
if he does invade Ukraine and Russian mothers and wifes see 40000 sons and huspands coming home in body bags and stop the war marches gather pace all over Russia it could be seen as absolute folly for mr putins Ukrainian adventure and after all the destruction and blood letting Ukraine becomes a nato member sour grapes indeed

nikimcbee

02-02-22, 12:12 AM

Well.
The 7th Cavalry didn't figure The Original Home Land Security Force and Sitting Bull any kind of threat.
It's not what Confidence They give you. It's what they inspire in their Troops. Have you been (familiar) to the Battlefield? I would've paid money to see the look on Custer's face, after he went past Weir Point and saw the whole valley....and all of the people down there! ...that moment, when you realize you made a horrible mistake.
https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.pinimg.com%2Foriginals%2Fd9%2F2 9%2F8a%2Fd9298ad1f7d5f90ff7a0b59311d23458.jpg&f=1&nofb=1

nikimcbee

02-02-22, 12:20 AM

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60220702

Markus

https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fmedia.giphy.com%2Fmedia%2FS4F13CD t4vOQU%2Fgiphy.gif&f=1&nofb=1

August

02-02-22, 12:50 AM

Have you been (familiar) to the Battlefield? I would've paid money to see the look on Custer's face, after he went past Weir Point and saw the whole valley....and all of the people down there! ...that moment, when you realize you made a horrible mistake.
https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.pinimg.com%2Foriginals%2Fd9%2F2 9%2F8a%2Fd9298ad1f7d5f90ff7a0b59311d23458.jpg&f=1&nofb=1

I doubt that Custer was all that impressed with the sight. If he was he could have pulled back and linked up with Benteen and Reno in a defensive posture or withdrew altogether but instead he continued his attack after sending word back by the Bugler Martin (one lucky SOB BTW) of a "big village" and for Benteen to move forward.

Things might have turned out a little different too if Benteen hadn't dawdled and Reno had stood his ground but we'll never know.

Reece

02-02-22, 02:42 AM

The Video below is early 1940 as the B.E.F. arrived in France

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hSSBQWbF7R8

I have some old 78's of George Formby!! :yep:

Jimbuna

02-02-22, 07:20 AM

Boris Johnson is due to speak with Vladimir Putin today, following the president’s accusation that the West is ignoring Russia’s security concerns.

The Kremlin said that it would provide details if and when President Putin spoke to PM Boris Johnson by phone and that Mr Putin was ready to talk to anyone, including the “utterly confused”.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ukraine-russia-invasion-putin-latest-news-war-b2005653.html

I've absolutely no idea who he is referring to :)

Catfish

02-02-22, 07:29 AM

[...] The Kremlin said that it would provide details if and when President Putin spoke to PM Boris Johnson by phone and that Mr Putin was ready to talk to anyone, including the “utterly confused”.
I've absolutely no idea who he is referring to :)
^ :woot: well he already has some experience with those, from Trump to Baerbock :haha:

Jimbuna

02-02-22, 07:38 AM

^ :woot: well he already has some experience with those, from Trump to Baerbock :haha:

It's this new political pandemic a tells ya :03:

Skybird

02-02-22, 07:41 AM

Pres. Dr. psych. V. Putin, inventor of so-called confrontation therapy, has still has some appointments available in February.

mapuc

02-02-22, 08:31 AM

Does this come as a surprise for you ?

https://twitter.com/m_suchkov/status/1488784856951709701

Try to find the other papers-without any luck

Markus

mapuc

02-02-22, 11:16 AM

https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fmedia.giphy.com%2Fmedia%2FS4F13CD t4vOQU%2Fgiphy.gif&f=1&nofb=1

I'm not so much into these NFL-Referees signs-What is he saying ?

Markus

Jimbuna

02-02-22, 01:46 PM

RAF jets were scrambled to intercept four Russian military aircraft to the north of Scotland.

Typhoons from RAF Lossiemouth in Moray and a Voyager fuel tanker from RAF Brize Norton in Oxfordshire were involved in the mission.

The RAF said the Russian aircraft did not enter UK airspace.

Incidents like this - known as quick reaction alerts - are not uncommon and involve RAF crews shadowing Russian military aircraft near UK airspace.

They have occurred since the Cold War era.

Wednesday's incident comes amid mounting tensions in eastern Europe.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-north-east-orkney-shetland-60231014

Not uncommon but on the day Boris is going to have a telephone conversation with Putin :hmmm:

nikimcbee

02-02-22, 02:19 PM

I'm not so much into these NFL-Referees signs-What is he saying ?

Markus

It's either "offsides" or "false start".

nikimcbee

02-02-22, 02:35 PM

Pres. Dr. psych. V. Putin, inventor of so-called confrontation therapy, has still has some appointments available in February.

Don't worry, just put a mask on? or was it two masks?

Confrontation therapy? Sounds like Fight club?

Just for you Skybird:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4hiISZBRFYA

Jeff-Groves

02-02-22, 04:20 PM

I doubt that Custer was all that impressed with the sight. If he was he could have pulled back and linked up with Benteen and Reno in a defensive posture or withdrew altogether but instead he continued his attack after sending word back by the Bugler Martin (one lucky SOB BTW) of a "big village" and for Benteen to move forward.

Things might have turned out a little different too if Benteen hadn't dawdled and Reno had stood his ground but we'll never know.
Exactly. Hindsight is 20/20 after all.

You could also say ...
"If Hitler had used his forces differently instead of launching the Battle of the Bulge things would have been different!"

But guess what? He did go ahead and DID underestimate a World of hurt!

Skybird

02-02-22, 04:59 PM

Does this come as a surprise for you ?

https://twitter.com/m_suchkov/status/1488784856951709701

Try to find the other papers-without any luck

Markus

This discusses - in the second half of the text - the meaning of it all. The 2000 troops released imo are just symbol politics.
https://www.dw.com/en/us-to-send-more-troops-to-germany-poland/a-60634570

And:
https://www-faz-net.translate.goog/aktuell/politik/ausland/usa-und-nato-wollen-laut-putin-russland-in-einen-krieg-ziehen-17774264.html?printPagedArticle=true&_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp#pageIndex_4

Skybird

02-02-22, 05:09 PM

Confrontation therapy? Sounds like Fight club?

Just for you Skybird:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4hiISZBRFYA

Hehe, aggression sticks, eh? I once had a supervisor who seriously wanted patients to get rid of their aggressions, if they felt them, by giving them a heavy medicine ball, you know: one of these bigger-than-basetballs leather balls that weigh several pounds, and a single A4 page of paper. They should roll the paper to form a small "stick", and then use that stick to whip the ball around the room.

Of course, the ball did not move one bit.

The result fo this idiotic exercise was two-fold. First, patients did not feel being taken serious anymore, and second: instead of reducing aggression, it raised frustration with one of the two consequences: either even more aggression, or a deep fall into a depressed mood or depression.

Soetimes I really wondered what psychologists, some of them, are thinking. :hmmm:

The electroshock part in the video reminds of UN security council meetings, doesn't it? The purpose seems to be comparable.

mapuc

02-02-22, 05:21 PM

Denmark and other NATO members received a letter from Russia

You are well aware that Russia is seriously concerned about increasing politico-military tensions in the immediate vicinity of its western borders. With a view to avoiding any further escalation, the Russian side presented on 15 December 2021 the drafts of two interconnected international legal documents – a Treaty between the Russian Federation and the United States of America on Security Guarantees and an Agreement on Measures to Ensure the Security of the Russian Federation and Member States of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

https://www.mid.ru/ru/foreign_policy/news/1796679/?lang=en

Markus

Catfish

02-03-22, 03:08 AM

Jimbuna

02-03-22, 07:42 AM

Not uncommon but on the day Boris is going to have a telephone conversation with Putin :hmmm:

Happened again today, that's two days running.

Skybird

02-03-22, 07:45 AM

What about a neutral and nuclear-armed Europe.
A military (wannabe) power that has only the nuclear club to strike back with in case of even smaller military provocations and incursions, is noncredible. Also, nuclear weapons that are under a 2-dozen-nations command, are somethign that never will wortk becasue even inc as eof war there will never be unity about using them. Thus, any deterrence from them is uncredible again. You thus would need to have every nation having its own nuclear aresenal. Mind you, France last year refuted - strongly - a German philosophizing about turning French nukes under multi-national command.

A one-nation-EU that the EU pushes for and wants to be, I strongly refute, as is known by now. It would multiply the scaling of internal problems, corruption and misadminsitration by factors. The reach of - all - politicians must be cut and limited, not widened and increased.

It comes down to this: Why not having NATO states meeting their obligations in contributions to NATO, and to have them realising more conventional military self defence capabilities? Money gets wasted everywhere these days, it gets thrown out of the windows to bribe once own voter clients, and for illusory megalomanica policies of various kinds. But for defence and security and independency - there always is not enough...? Especially the Germans have to ask themselves what theiur freedom, wealth and - already corrupted energy - independence is worth to them. Instead the Germans seem to not even understand why they should even want to be capable to defend themselves. Thats why I think especially the Germans are a hopeless case.

There is no easy shortcut. Europeans must regain enormous additional conventional military strength, else they can say Sayonara to global relevance and being taken serious on the world stage. It will not happen, And that is why neither Russia nor China nor the Us take Europe serious anymore. They have no reason to do so. Dogs cannot balk and bite at the same time. And the EU balks louder than all others. And with an "ally" like Germany, European nations do not need an enemy anymore, I slowly start to think in light of recent weeks. British transports with military aid for the Ukraine even had to fly around German airspace. Maybe we should ask Moscow for memberhsip in the Russian union. Russia meets German mentality much more than the Anglosaxon culure and values anyway.

Jimbuna

02-03-22, 07:57 AM

Russia has condemned a US decision to send extra troops to Europe to support its allies amid continuing fears of a Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Moscow said it was a "destructive" step which heightened tension and reduced the scope for a political solution.

The Pentagon said 2,000 US troops would be sent from North Carolina to Poland and Germany, and a further 1,000 already in Germany would go to Romania.

Russia has some 100,000 troops near Ukraine. It denies planning to invade.

The tensions come eight years after Russia annexed Ukraine's southern Crimea peninsula and backed a bloody rebellion in the eastern Donbas region.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60238869

Catfish

02-03-22, 08:13 AM

Skybird

02-03-22, 08:43 AM

re Skybird this is why i wrote 'for now'. But apart from that this is a very US-friendly interpretation of what is going on.

Not that i trust Putin so much, but he made some points on treaties and promises that clearly have been broken.. and let Gorbatchev appear in a bad light – because he trusted the West.

"Afterwards, Baker wrote to Helmut Kohl who would meet with the Soviet leader on the next day, with much of the very same language. Baker reported: “And then I put the following question to him [Gorbachev]. Would you prefer to see a united Germany outside of NATO, independent and with no U.S. forces or would you prefer a unified Germany to be tied to NATO, with assurances that NATO’s jurisdiction would not shift one inch eastward from its present position?

He answered that the Soviet leadership was giving real thought to all such options [….]
He then added, ‘Certainly any extension of the zone of NATO would be unacceptable.’” Baker added in parentheses, for Kohl’s benefit, “By implication, NATO in its current zone might be acceptable.” (See Document 8)"

Declassified documents show security assurances against NATO expansion to Soviet leaders from Baker, Bush, Genscher, Kohl, Gates, Mitterrand, Thatcher, Hurd, Major, and WoernerSlavic Studies Panel Addresses “Who Promised What to Whom on NATO Expansion?”

It is all here in the US National Security Archive:

https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-book/russia-programs/2017-12-12/nato-expansion-what-gorbachev-heard-western-leaders-early
I think I am not suspicious of ignoring Russian interests, really. But its not as if the Russians are only honest and truth-telling. They too are masters of opportunistic forgetfulness.
https://www-faz-net.translate.goog/aktuell/politik/ausland/usa-und-nato-wollen-laut-putin-russland-in-einen-krieg-ziehen-17774264.html?printPagedArticle=true&_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp#pageIndex_4

Edit.
Mist. When i posted this first yesterday, it all was free text. It now is behind a paywall. Too bad. It put Russian claims and positions into relation with treaty obligations and understandings that they also have signed back then - and now simply ignore.

Russia is not just an innocent victim as Putin paints it.

Rockstar

02-03-22, 09:37 AM

The Myth of a No-NATO-Enlargement Pledge to Russia. No treaties and most likely a display of ineptitude by Soviet politicians. There was no treaty either and times, geo politics attitudes do change. Also it’s not up to Russia what a nation decides to join NATO, NATO isn’t a country but does happen to be the most powerful political and military alliance in the world. What nation especially former Soviet bloc countries wouldn’t want to get an invitation to join that club?

https://www.sscnet.ucla.edu/polisci/faculty/trachtenberg/cv/1990.pdf

mapuc

02-03-22, 10:05 AM

^ i can only say that i understand Russia with its security concerns regarding the eastward expansion of NATO, but i also understand that every nation/state should be able to freely choose which treaty it wants to join.

76 years after WW2 and 32 years after the end of the Soviet union i find it rather dumb and arrogant how the two main superpowers still dictate everything regarding politics and borders in Europe. Looks the latter is still under occupation.

For now there seems to be no other way, but this policy and attitude has to change soon.
What about a neutral and nuclear-armed Europe.

What's interesting here is how the countries who received the letter interprets it.
In Denmark some Professor said the letter smell like an opening from Putin.
While the Swedish Minister of foreign Affairs said - The letter indicate that Putin has never stopped from....Forgot the rest but it was in a negative way.

Wonder how Germany interprets this letter.

Edit
Have read the answer from the Danish MoD.
She says that Putins behavior is insane
End edit

Markus

Skybird

02-03-22, 10:08 AM

Rockstar

02-03-22, 12:01 PM

It has been American excuse since long that those promises back then were made in spoken format only, not fixed in writing and formalized. That is true. Still, verbal assurances were given, American opposite claims are not true. These have been confirmed by time witnesses of the events and from several countries. A promise is not a treaty, still you get judged by your words, and if you get found to put your deeds not where your mouth was, distrust is the logcial consequence. The russians were naive back then. And certain Westerners - American and NATO diplomats and capitalist predators alike - made unrestrained use and abuse of that.

People like "strong tough bullies of the block", for whom, male friendships and unwritten verbal arrangements between the strong chieftains, stomping feet and fists slammed on tables, count more than diplomatic habits and subtelties that should reflect the claimed superiority of a civilization, rate such abuses as personal insults. Formally, the US is right, there is no written treaty. Just that this does not count for defining the Russian view of things. Technically, the Russians are right. They were given a certain promise, and the promise was broken. Neither forgotten, nor forgiven. And so we are where we are today.

The West thought the russians were done and would just play ball according to Western rules, would get over it. One even thought for some years that Russia sooner or later would join NATO, that much Russia was assumed to be done. Already back then I just shook my head about such immense foolishness, and Western misperception of the Russian sentiment.

We showed them that we cannot be trusted. That simple it is. And today they pay tribute to these lessons. Their reply: "We must become strong and indispensable again as the Sovjet Union was, its the only way to survive amongst wolves - you must become the biggest wolve yourself".

There is another reason. Russia has no tech sector worth to be exported, it only has ressources to export - and immense military might. It deals the cards that it has.

You might want read up on what is NATO and how it works and who everyone involved is and what nations they represent before you take up Putin’s narrative about U.S. broken promises. It’s not any one country, NATO is a by invitation only alliance, it doesn’t invade with tanks and troops and occupy other countries.

“Soviet leaders were still highly confident that the Warsaw Pact was going to survive.”

And if the East Europeans sought to leave the Warsaw Pact, didn’t that suggest to the Soviet leadership that they might eventually want to join NATO? Gorbachev later said that this simply was not an issue at the time. “The topic of ‘NATO expansion,’” he told an interviewer in 2014, “was not discussed at all, and it wasn’t brought up in those years. I say this with full responsibility. Not a single Eastern European country raised the issue, not even after the Warsaw Pact ceased to exist in 1991.” But it was not true that “not a single Eastern European country raised the issue” of joining NATO during that period. The idea was in fact broached by East European leaders in meetings with Deputy Secretary of State Lawrence Eagleburger in late February 1990, just days after the Baker assurances had been given; one of them, Hungary’s foreign minister Gyula Horn, actually made public comments in this vein at the time. The East Europeans, to be sure, did not press this issue too vociferously. They, like everyone else, were worried that moving ahead too quickly might undermine Gorbachev’s position within the Soviet leadership, and that if he fell everything might be lost. But it was clear enough what they had in mind. As Kohl told President Bush in May, the Soviet leader had “big problems. His East European allies say they want to be in NATO.”

Warsaw Pact countries fled the scene, seems they wanted to join NATO. NATO doesn’t roll in with T-34’s and occupy the town square of countries. It sends out invitations. What were we supposed to do? Tell them you need to stay in the Warsaw Pact and within Putin’s infuence? We spent a lot of money, time, effort and spilled a lot blood sweat & tears tearing down that iron curtain and made a place where Eastern Europe can be a part of something of what I think is a helluva lot better than what Putin has to offer. Russia don’t like it? Well that’s just too damn bad.

Here’s the link again highly suggested it as well as others links within are read.’

https://www.sscnet.ucla.edu/polisci/faculty/trachtenberg/cv/1990.pdf

astvitaliy1982

02-03-22, 12:55 PM

Не получается открыть ссылку(((

Rockstar

02-03-22, 02:16 PM

I checked it again and it worked for me. Just a guess, it is a .pdf so maybe you need pdf file reader or, use a VPN Other than that I don’t know why you couldn’t open it.

mapuc

02-03-22, 03:35 PM

Looks like we are very close to war in Europe

More evidence has emerged of a steady build-up of Russian military equipment and deployments around Ukraine, with new satellite images revealing a further expansion of the military presence at multiple locations in Belarus, Crimea and western Russia.

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/02/02/europe/russia-troops-ukraine-buildup-satellite-images-intl/index.html

Markus

mapuc

02-04-22, 10:45 AM

Rockstar

02-04-22, 10:45 AM

I don’t know, Military Expansion and especially war places a huge burden on the Russian economy and really don’t think Russians are up for it so close to home. Plus we’re going after Putin’s backers where it hurts the most, their pocket book. I bet Putin will catch a cold and disappear before a war starts.

Then again

Skybird

02-04-22, 11:22 AM

I did not foresee this- I thought Putin would get some kind of approval of his foreign politics towards Ukraine.

How far will this friendship between these two country go ? Have Putin got a carte blanche to invade Ukraine ? Will China support Russia if NATO support Ukraine ?

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-60257080

Markus
"Villains of all countries- unite! The opportunity is more favorable than ever, the West is weaker than ever, France, Great Britain, America are all busy with themselves and their internal problems, Germany simply refuses to be present - use the opportunities! If not now - when then...?"

I think that simple indeed is why Putin does what he does. The opportunity is there, and it is better than it ever was, and ever will be again. Also, Putin and many Russians reject the idea of Ukrainians and Russians being different tribes, different people. The Ukraine for them is Russia anyway. Odeassa is a Russian holiday ressort.

Onkel Neal

02-04-22, 11:50 AM

But although Putin missed the euphoria of the ’80s, he certainly took full part in the orgy of greed that gripped Russia in the ’90s. Having weathered the trauma of the Berlin Wall, Putin returned to the Soviet Union and joined his former colleagues in a massive looting of the Soviet state. With the assistance of Russian organized crime as well as the amoral international offshore-money-laundering industry, some of the former Soviet nomenklatura stole assets, took the money out of the country, hid it abroad, and then brought the cash back and used it to buy more assets. Wealth accumulated; a power struggle followed. Some of the original oligarchs landed in prison or exile. Eventually Putin wound up as the top billionaire among all the other billionaires—or at least the one who controls the secret police.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/02/putin-ukraine-democracy/621465/

Hitler's wet dream, is alive in Russia.

Skybird

02-04-22, 12:03 PM

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/02/putin-ukraine-democracy/621465/

Yes, many at the top of the Russian establishment are about plundering their own country, and their foreign political pose expresses that they do not want to be called out for it: then they argue with anti-Russian sentiments and Russophobia. The one thing that Putin did was that he set up a red line for oligarchs where they better had to stop in their greed: when they started to become a threat to the state, which is Putin himself, so to speak. Then the state - Putin - cracked down mercilessly on them.

I dont know if he is bluffing over the Ukraine. But if it is a bluff, then it is the most convincing bluff I have ever seen. Stepping back from it would be an enormous loss of face, and that is what makes the situation so sobering. He cannot pull back, it seems, without making a joke of himself, and not being taken serious anymore. And that is what really itches him. He mjust get a trophy of any sort that he can present and say: "Look, this is what I achieved, this is why it was worth it." If he fails in this, he will no longer be taken serious. A lame bear, so to speak.

Jeff-Groves

02-04-22, 12:36 PM

Hell. Putin could finish the War Games then pull the Troops back as he 'says' he plans to.
Then he could justifiably point fingers at the Warmongering Westerners!
With a stern face he could then say "SEE! I TOLD YOU SO!"

That would be a MAJOR feather in his Cap.

mapuc

02-04-22, 01:00 PM

This I know:
If Russia and China create a military alliance NATO is not strong enough to take on them.

Secondly I would love to read/know exactly what they have agreed on when it comes to NATO and Ukraine.

Markus

ET2SN

02-04-22, 02:49 PM

China needs to tread lightly with Europe.
Its hard to sell products to nations that hate your guts.

One thing to remember about NATO: It was and is a nice insurance policy to countries that got tired of having to rebuild their roads, cities, and adult population every twenty years. :03:

Never mind who won, there's a reason why most European cities had to be rebuilt in the 1950's.

Jimbuna

02-06-22, 06:39 AM

Russia has assembled about 70% of the military capability needed for a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in the coming weeks, US officials say.

The ground is expected to freeze and harden from mid-February, enabling Moscow to bring in more heavy equipment, the unnamed officials said.

Russia is said to have more than 100,000 troops near Ukraine's borders but denies planning to attack.

The US officials did not provide evidence for their assessment.

They said the information was based on intelligence but that they were unable to give details due to its sensitivity, US media report.

The officials also said they did not know if Russian President Vladimir Putin had decided to take such a step, adding that a diplomatic solution was still possible. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60276342

Catfish

02-06-22, 07:35 AM

One idea was that Putin waits until february 20ieth to not spoil or distract from, his friend's Xi Jin Ping's winter party (which officiall ends then).

Skybird

02-06-22, 07:53 AM

Focus writes:

Putin wants to break up the clueless EU - his only question is, "Already?"

NATO has moved too close to Russia after the Cold War, Putin says. He feels his sphere of influence is in danger. The U.S. is no longer the sole world power. More distance from Russia is needed. Of course, the U.S. is not only concerned with Ukraine, but above all with geopolitical interests - just like Putin.

For thirty years, the German governments failed to seriously discuss basic questions of the international order and their consequences for German foreign policy and to draw conclusions from them. In other words, not just talking about what kind of world one would like to see, but what kind of global order can realistically emerge.

Former Chancellor Gerhard Schröder's attempt to position Germany in confrontation with the United States (together with France and Russia) did not bear fruit beyond his term in office, which is why he has since propagated the dissolution of NATO. The EU's independence, agreed upon in many documents, was never seriously pursued; the Charter of Paris was never backed up with its own power to act. The fourth wave of democratization in the Middle East and North Africa was cheered without serious support, and its slide into authoritarian regimes was merely registered.

The result of this heedlessness is the current German taciturnity and lack of conception in the conflict with Russia.

It was different in Russia. The Russian leadership has answered for itself the basic questions of international order after the collapse of the Soviet Union. It has openly communicated this and all other governments have known since 2007 at the latest which European order Russia is striving for. However, for 15 years it was pretended that this was less important, because there was no self-education to be able to act in the expected conflicts.

Russia's leadership reaffirms the claim to establish a larger space dominated by Russia to reinforce its importance in world politics. Small states - including Ukraine for Russia's leadership - have no right of their own to choose their political order or alliances in it, but must have their place assigned in the geopolitical balancing of the great powers. In Russia's view, states may not intervene in the internal affairs of other states, let alone support political forces abroad that are working toward a coup d'état or a revolution (i.e., a democratic order).

Russia's view is that the major powers negotiate with each other, in accordance with their respective power and willingness to escalate, where the boundaries between their spheres of influence lie. The smaller states have to fit in there.

In this thinking, the U.S. overstretched its sphere of influence vis-à-vis Russia in its phase of sole world power. They ventured too close to Russia - as well as too close to China in the Pacific. Great powers, however, should strive to maintain distances, establish buffer states and keep their distance because of surprises. In this thinking in geopolitical zones of influence of the determining great powers, it is now appropriate, since the USA is no longer the sole world power, to take back this American overstretching. This could be agreed by treaty, as was done in Yalta in 1945, or it would have to be achieved by force. Whereby force includes both military and civilian means, which can complement each other in the context of hybrid warfare.

Either way: The restoration of a new balance in the zones of influence of the great powers must be achieved. Unbalanced orders always evolve into a new balance. They cannot remain unbalanced. In the process, the stronger states prevail. In this way of thinking, the references to the right of states to self-determination, the inviolability of their sovereignty and the right to freely choose alliances are no more than propaganda behind which the USA hides geopolitical interests.

For the last four federal governments, this thinking should have been overcome. It was dismissed as "19th century". In contrast, for the present and the future, non-interference in the internal affairs of other states should be replaced by the responsibility to protect. It means that states have the right, even the duty, to intervene in other states if the government there threatens the population with the most serious crimes. As it was implemented in Libya when Gaddafi's troops threatened to attack Benghazi. And why now the situation of the Uighurs in China must trigger reactions from the West.

All societies should have the right to shake off authoritarian rule, organize democratically, and receive the support of democracies worldwide in the process. That is why Foreign Minister Westerwelle was in Tahrir Square in Egypt and EU High Representative Ashton was in the Euromaidan in Ukraine. Finally, all states should cooperate in a multilateral order that no longer recognizes zones of influence and regional superpowers. The asymmetric order of great powers and zones of influence should be replaced by an alliance for multilateralism. Tragically for German foreign policy, all three projects never had a chance to be implemented and thus failed, and currently the policy of zones of influence and the ban on intervention is visibly prevailing.

But the enforcement of these three principles: Responsibility to Protect, Democratization, Self-Determination, no federal government had backed them with capabilities. I wonder if they thought that the mindset would be enough to put things in order. In any case, President Putin is now showing the world public that these are empty words that cannot be enforced against the conflicting claims of the great powers that think and act in terms of zones of influence. Unless the U.S. takes up the cause and continues to act as the primary world power, which it no longer is in the eyes of Russia (and China). But the EU states cannot rely on America in the long run.

The politician with the highest approval ratings in the U.S. at the moment demanded that the U.S. government send the mobilized soldiers to the border with Mexico rather than to Eastern Europe. Donald Trump. His prospects of becoming the next president are so good that the federal government should now be forced to provide answers to the basic questions of international governance that it can enforce. President Biden's hands are tied domestically vis-à-vis Russia, as not even a third of citizens would support engagement over Ukraine. And there are elections in November.
Russia wants to gut the EU and divide the NATO countries

Russia will continue to pursue its goals of dividing the NATO states apart, taking away the EU's ability to make political decisions, and bringing Europe under its influence. Unlike in earlier times, it has no effective resistance to expect from European states in this reach for an expanded zone of influence. President Putin has completely upset the diplomatic situation in Europe with forceful troop movements. Turkey is offering to act as a mediator, Hungary is warning against escalation, as is Germany, fear of Russian pressure is rising in the Baltic states, and Sweden and Finland are facing Russian claims to remain permanently neutral. The United States is organizing the cohesion of the NATO states, but the question is how long it will last. In the EU, there seems to be a lack of awareness of the severity of the threat to the independent development of the integration community. Russia wants to gut the EU.

President Putin has clearly and openly communicated his goals in two treaty proposals: The former Soviet republics are to be placed under Moscow's direct influence; Scandinavia and Eastern Europe are to act as buffers to Western Europe; the American and European security space is to be severed. The question he now faces is whether he sees the present moment as favorable to push through his goals, for which he would have to use force and would face some resistance. Or whether he is stalling for time because the U.S. is turning away from Europe anyway, the European states are increasingly at odds with each other, and he can realize his goals successively.

// About the expert

Prof. Dr. Thomas Jäger has held the Chair of International Politics and Foreign Policy at the University of Cologne since 1999. His research focuses on international relations as well as American and German foreign policy. //

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (http://www.DeepL.com/Translator) (free version)
https://www.focus.de/politik/ausland/russlands-doktrin-der-einflusszonen-putin-will-die-ahnungslose-eu-zerstoeren-seine-einzige-frage-lautet-jetzt-schon_id_48157399.html

The European ambitions have no chance, realistically seen. On this topic, and many others as well.

Skybird

02-06-22, 08:03 AM

Russia has assembled about 70% of the military capability needed for a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in the coming weeks, US officials say.
Not long ago they said that the Russians already had amassed the needed combat power to start going.

I read that once the currently in transit reinforcements have arrived, over 60-70% of Russiam total combat powers will be at the Ukraine borders. Talk is of close to 100 batallion battle groups.

How times have changed. 35+ years ago it was NATO being about batallions and companies - the Russiand were counted by divisions. One did not expect highly mobile and individual "combat teams", but orchestrated first and second "waves" or army groups that drive the attack as deep as possible before they get bogged down by their own losses - and then a third echelon should achieve the penultimate breakthrough through the already battered NATO lines, then cannibalize the units from the first two waves.

Well, nobody has the numbers for such plans anymore.The loss of one fighterplane is many times as costly than it was 40, 50 years ago. When the UK lost Tornados in the Kuwait war, the loss was expressed by the BBC in fractions of the GDP.

If all this is just Russian bluff, then it is the most convincing bluff I have ever seen one. And where is the bluff? Maybe regarding the Ukraine invasion. But with the strageic goal of Putin to divert and divide the EU, there is nom bluffing at all, it is long estalbished policy founded on long lasting strategic thinking - something the EU and especially Germany is not capable of.

Skybird

02-06-22, 10:35 AM

A different view on things, one I not necessarily ahgree with in full, but it might be a realistic perspective as well.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/overconfident-putin-is-practicing-judo-when-he-should-be-playing-chess-11643901699

But while Putin manufactured Ukraine crisis believing he held a clear advantage vis-à-vis the West, he committed an error that can prove dangerous even for a skilled martial-arts practitioner: he underestimated his opponent.
While Biden (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/08/russia-talks-of-rapid-ukraine-discussions-after-biden-putin-summit) and NATO (https://www.reuters.com/world/nato-chief-says-no-plans-send-combat-troops-ukraine-if-russia-invades-2022-01-30/) have said they would not intervene directly on behalf of Ukraine, this is not the same as accepting Russian dominance. In fact, the U.S. has organized a comprehensive response. It has sent arms (https://www.euronews.com/2022/01/22/us-sends-first-shipment-of-military-aid-to-ukraine-amid-standoff-with-russia) to Ukraine to increase the costs to Russia of any invasion and occupation. There are plans to fortify NATO member countries closest to Russia. Substantial economic sanctions are being prepared. And rerouting gas to Europe (https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/exclusive-us-talks-energy-firms-over-eu-gas-supply-case-russia-ukraine-conflict-2022-01-15/) would partly offset the possible loss of Russian supplies.
All of which is to say that Putin’s initial thrust failed to score a decisive blow. Those who say that Russia’s president has the West where he wants it have things backward. Putin has placed himself in an unenviable position: he must either escalate or find a face-saving way to back down.
The U.S. has wisely provided Putin with a diplomatic off-ramp (https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/defusing-russia-ukraine-crisis-by-richard-haass-2021-12). This could entail a new structure to help underpin European security, as well as arms-control arrangements that would limit the scale and location of a range of systems. A revitalized and revised Minsk process would seek a political settlement in eastern Ukraine that would allow for considerable autonomy for the region’s inhabitants (many of whom are ethnic Russians) and the replacement of Russian soldiers by international peacekeepers.
The U.S. has also signaled (https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/biden-says-it-remains-be-seen-if-ukraine-will-be-n1270807) that Ukraine will not enter NATO any time soon, and then some.
Whether such an outcome will be enough for Putin is uncertain. He is not going to hear what he wants—that Ukraine will never be able to join NATO, or that NATO forces will pull back to where they were more than two decades ago, before the Alliance expanded into Central and Eastern Europe.
But Putin will probably have a few weeks to ponder his next steps. He will soon travel to Beijing for the opening of the Winter Olympics (https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/beijing-winter-olympics-economic-diplomatic-opportunities-by-nancy-qian-1-2022-01)—and Xi has likely made it clear that he would not appreciate a war in Ukraine overshadowing the opportunity to showcase China ahead of the Communist Party congress this fall, where he will seek a third term.
Putin does have another option. He could increase Russia’s military presence in the Western Hemisphere, claiming to be doing to the U.S. what it and NATO had done to Russia. But this would be risky, and would do nothing to deal with his concerns in Europe.
It is impossible to predict what Putin will do, and it may be that he has yet to decide. He may well opt for a so-called “minor incursion,” or limited intervention, possibly to increase Russia’s military presence in eastern Ukraine.
Such a course of action would give Putin something to show for his aggressive diplomacy without incurring major penalties, as NATO’s 30 members would be unlikely to reach a consensus on how to respond. It would also be consistent with the martial-arts approach of looking for tactical openings to unbalance one’s opponent.

mapuc

02-06-22, 01:13 PM

If I remember correctly from my history books people knew/expected a war would come very soon this was in the year -37,-38.

Today we know/expect a war will come very soon.

Markus

ET2SN

02-06-22, 03:54 PM

I read that once the currently in transit reinforcements have arrived, over 60-70% of Russiam total combat powers will be at the Ukraine borders. Talk is of close to 100 batallion battle groups.

This would be a good time for the DPRK to invade and annex Vladivostok. :arrgh!:

Reece

02-06-22, 08:03 PM

In for a penny in for a pound!! :har: :Kaleun_Applaud:

mapuc

02-06-22, 10:13 PM

In Ukraine there's hope

Ukraine tracks diplomatic solution
According to Ukraine, there is a greater chance that the crisis in and around Ukraine will be resolved through diplomacy than through military escalation.

"An honest assessment of the situation suggests that the chance to find a diplomatic solution to the downsizing
is still significantly higher than the threat of further escalation ", says Presidential Adviser Mykhailo
Podolyak in a statement.

The message comes as the United States warns that Russia is further intensifying preparations for one
invasion, reports TT

Markus

Skybird

02-07-22, 08:17 AM

https://www.dw.com/en/why-the-eu-needs-russian-energy-giant-gazprom/a-60674774

https://static.dw.com/image/60679493_7.png

mapuc

02-07-22, 10:22 AM

The President in Belarus Lukasjenko has threaten Ukraine that if they cross the red line, Belarus will join forces with Russia. This red line should be in the Donbass region. If Ukraine conduct any military offensive operation He and Putin will act with a firm hand.
(Heard this in the news-Can't find any article about it)

Markus

Jimbuna

02-07-22, 10:52 AM

World leaders are stepping up efforts to reduce tensions over Ukraine as fears of a Russian invasion grow.

French President Emmanuel Macron is meeting Russian leader Vladimir Putin in Moscow, while US President Joe Biden hosts German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in Washington.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60292437

Skybird

02-07-22, 02:48 PM

Is that Russian sense for comedy? :D

https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/976/cpsprodpb/1AF0/production/_123169860_tv073613562.jpg

Catfish

02-07-22, 03:24 PM

The russian idea of a cordon sanitaire extends everywhere :03:

Platapus

02-08-22, 06:47 AM

https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/976/cpsprodpb/1AF0/production/_123169860_tv073613562.jpg

All they need is:

https://i2.wp.com/itsalwaysautumn.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/flick-football-instructions.jpg

Jimbuna

02-08-22, 08:02 AM

Kremlin media: Ukraine preparing to attack, not Russia
Just like in the West, in Russia the media is closely following the chance of further conflict in Ukraine.

However, Kremlin-controlled outlets have their own version of who is likely to start it.

They portray Ukraine as the aggressor preparing to mount an unprovoked attack on areas controlled by Moscow-backed separatists.

Pro-Kremlin media say the government in Kyiv is encouraged by the West, which is driven by a blind hatred of Russia.

The likelihood of a Russian invasion of Ukraine is laughed off, but the Kremlin's media messaging seems designed to convince Russians that it would be entirely justified.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60140566

No surprises here then.

Skybird

02-08-22, 08:19 AM

France24 writes:French President Emmanuel Macron said Tuesday that he had managed to convince Russian President Vladimir Putin not to "escalate" the crisis around Ukraine, as the West warns Moscow could be planning an invasion. "I obtained that there will be no degradation nor escalation," Macron told journalists as he arrived in Kyiv for talks with Ukraine's leader.And I will have lamb steaks with Avocado pesto, grilled paprika and pan-roasted millet this evening.

Jimbuna

02-08-22, 08:46 AM

France24 writes:And I will have lamb steaks with Avocado pesto, grilled paprika and pan-roasted millet this evening.

I wonder what was going through Putins mind whilst listening to Macron?

"Why bother coming to Moscow when we all know if it comes to military conflict you'll be the first one to surrender" :O:

mapuc

02-08-22, 10:19 AM

NATO is both military and economical stronger than Russia-It is therefore important to show a united front against Russia.

This is difficult to manage-Germany for an example their factories are depending on the Gas Germany get from Russia-Many factory owners has sent letters to the Bunderstag and said please no more sanction-they fear Russia will cut the gas.

Markus

Skybird

02-08-22, 05:31 PM

The game on the crisis: I just saw that Combat Mission: Black Sea was also relaunched on Steam after Shock Force, a year ago.

Likewise: Combat Mission: Cold War. Focus is the famous "Fulda Gap".

That engine still is doing fine on ground combat tactics. In the meaning of: its not perfect, but I do not know any better. Sometimes, however, the ai or interface can drive you crazy. Micromanagement is on order.

The historical starting point of the series, Shock Force, focussed on Syria.

Black Sea, with some shader mod and graphics mod:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1LiQUQO8p_U

Cold War: TOWs mauling a Sovjet armour attack.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K1yalpmbCJA

Maybe the whole real world stuff should be solved by a couple of good old-fashioned PBEMs...

Skybird

02-09-22, 07:12 AM

I am wondering abiout one thing. The Ukraine sinc eweeks balks "Alarm!" and "War is imminent!"

Why haven't they started a general mobilization then?

Coud it be, as some Ukrainians said in an interview that I red, that the government just wants to distract from the corruption, economic problems and other problems it is incapable to solve?
I said that if the Russians do just bluff, its the most convicnign bluff I have ever seen. But oen thing indeed speaks very stroingly against Putin attacking: the Russian people at home deifnetly do not seem to be enthusiastic about the prospect of having their boys coming home in many, many body bags.

I don't know, since some days, something has changed for me, I suddenly have doubts that it all is seriously pointing towards war. It just does not make sense, from both sides' points of view. The contras outweigh the pros. Recent diplomatic visits have nothing to do with my change in view. Maybe I - and others - are just terribly far out on the wrong track.

We will find out soon enough. Nothing wrong in questioning oneself, if one thinks there might be a realistic reason for doing so.

Jimbuna

02-09-22, 07:59 AM

Russia's EU ambassador has told the BBC his country still believes diplomacy can help de-escalate the crisis over Ukraine.

Vladimir Chizhov said his country had no intention of invading anybody, but warned it was important not to provoke Russia into changing its mind.

It comes after a flurry of diplomatic activity on Monday and Tuesday.

Russia has repeatedly denied any plans to invade Ukraine.

But with well over 100,000 troops massed near the Ukrainian border, some Western countries including the US have warned that a Russian attack could come at any time.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60315906

The first early sign of a softening of the Russian position perhaps?

mapuc

02-09-22, 08:04 AM

The first early sign of a softening of the Russian position perhaps?

Sounds great indeed, I read this line a few times
"Vladimir Chizhov said his country had no intention of invading anybody, but warned it was important not to provoke Russia into changing its mind."

Who says Russia wouldn't use the NATO troops that's in eastern Europe as an excuse to invade Ukraine-Saying their presence is a provokation.

Markus

Skybird

02-09-22, 11:30 AM

5 or 6 Ropuchas (amphibous landing ships) from outside the Black Sea are in transit to Sewastopol. They lie deep in the water, seem to be heavily loaded, media say.

6 such ships can carry tanks and troops to form two armoured combat batallions.

Jimbuna

02-09-22, 12:14 PM

Any media links Sky?

Skybird

02-09-22, 12:28 PM

Macronman will not like to hear this, nor will the EU. Dmitry Peskov, President Vladimir Putin's spokesman, said for clarification after the guest's departure that French President Emmanuel Macron had not received any guarantees about Russia's behavior in Moscow. It would not be possible to reach an agreement with France on issues of European security: After all, the United States is the leading nation in NATO, not European countries.

Any media links Sky?

https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2022/02/6-russian-warships-and-submarine-now-entering-black-sea-towards-ukraine/

https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/01/amphibious-invasion-russia-is-sending-ropucha-landing-ships-towards-ukraine/

https://www.nzz.ch/international/ukraine-in-der-zange-russland-verstaerkt-den-druck-auch-von-sueden-ld.1668837

One Ropucha can carry 10 armoured vehicles/tanks, and around 380 marines.

Combind with the amhibious forces already in place, the Russian have assebled the biggest amphibous strike force since WWII. Its big enough to land over 100 tanks, I read.

Add to this: naval fire, huge numbers of helicopters, preparatory bombardement, air superiority, and you have a fearsome offensiove striking power that can thre aten Mariupol or Odessa believably after regional SAMs have been taken out.

mapuc

02-09-22, 12:28 PM

Any media links Sky?

Found this one

Three Russian Navy amphibious warfare ships are currently headed for the Black Sea from the Mediterranean and another trio is expected to follow them tomorrow. These six vessels left the Baltic Sea region in January and it has been postulated since then that the Black Sea might be their final destination. Once there, these landing ships would be in an ideal position to support amphibious options as part of a potential new Russian incursion into Ukraine.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/44210/six-russian-amphibious-landing-ships-are-now-headed-into-the-black-sea

Skybird was a second faster then me.

Markus

Jimbuna

02-09-22, 12:35 PM

Appreciate the links....this is a potentially quite disturbing development in the grand scheme of things.

Skybird

02-09-22, 12:36 PM

Its consistent with the past months.

Jimbuna

02-09-22, 12:44 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QXCKRTqB4-o

mapuc

02-09-22, 12:52 PM

In the media here it's mostly written Ukraine-Russia/NATO Russia/NATO-Ukraine combination.

It gives the reader the impression Russia is on their own in this-Which couldn't be more wrong. Russia and 6 former Soviet states has a military cooperation-Belarus is one of them.

Can't remember who the other 5 are and the name of this military organization.

Markus

Rockstar

02-09-22, 01:19 PM

mapuc

02-09-22, 01:27 PM

Russian allies? It has 6 military bases in South Ossetia, Abkhazia, Moldova, Armenia, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. Not exactly the most stable regions in the world either and I imagine their leaders are more focused on their own survival than Putin’s

I found it.

The name of this organization is CSTO and the member states are

Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia and Tajikistan.

Markus

Jimbuna

02-09-22, 01:40 PM

Collective Security Treaty Organization

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collective_Security_Treaty_Organization

The Collective Security Treaty Organization is an intergovernmental military alliance in Eurasia that consists of select post-Soviet states. The treaty had its origins to the Soviet Armed Forces, which was gradually replaced by the United Armed Forces of the Commonwealth of Independent States.

mapuc

02-09-22, 01:52 PM

^ Thank you Jim.

It's alliance and not organization.

Markus

Skybird

02-09-22, 01:57 PM

We are at MAD again, mutually assured destruction. But in the cold war it meant nuclear destruction, now MAD is focussing on mutually assured economic destruction. If the Russians start going over the border, the US will impose sanctions, and probably will also sanction the hell out of Germany and the EU if both do not play ball over SWIFT and Nord Stream 2. Will the US suffer? A bit. Will Germany, the EU? Yes, and significantly so. But the Russian state and economy will will suffer much more.

It will also drive Russia and China closer together.

But in any war on sanctions, the US has the least to lose, and even some to win. Europe and Germany cna only lose, and Russia looses even more, financially.

The question is how Putin weighs economic losses versus gains in the Ukraine. He must not see it like we do. Maybe to him its worth it. If so, then we and the Ukraine are screwed. Which may be part of the Russian calculation, that always includes the attempt to drive a wedge between the US and Europe.