Here we go again-Ukraine once again

[Rockstar]

Increased number of beached dolphins in RO as war in Ukraine increases noise pollution

https://www.romania-insider.com/dolphin-beached-ro-war-ukraine-may-2022

Biologists have attributed the increased number of strandings to acoustic trauma. The heightened noise pollution in the northern part of the Black Sea, caused by the war in Ukraine, is pushing the cetaceans south. They can also get caught in fishing nets at higher rates, and some of the cetaceans stranded on Romanian shores had net marks and cuts, biologist Costin Timofte explained for Dobrogea.tv.

Since the start of the war in Ukraine, higher number of dolphin strandings have been reported in both Bulgaria and Turkey.

[Skybird]

^ They are also sending delegations to Turkey in an effort to stop said countries objections to their membership.
The Turks want to get back a deal on the F-35, thats the real name of their "terrorist concerns".

[Jimbuna]

The Turks want to get back a deal on the F-35, thats the real name of their "terrorist concerns".

Maybe, but Erdogan is a slippery character and there may be other reasons.

It'll all come out in the wash.

[mapuc]

The Turks want to get back a deal on the F-35, thats the real name of their "terrorist concerns".

In the Swedish news it is said that Erdogan wants Sweden should stop supporting terrorist groups and lift the Weapon export ban they have on Turkey.

But Sweden does not support any terror group..there are members from PKK, YPG and some others who live in Sweden.

Sweden has put a ban on selling weapon to Turkey due to their warfare against minority.

Markus

[Jimbuna]

Ukraine conflict: What is Nato and how can Finland and Sweden join?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-18023383

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxsFu0-ELYc

[mapuc]

Erdogan says absolutely NO to Sweden and Finland he also said that their diplomatically effort will not change his mind.

Markus

[Jimbuna]

Probably waiting on being offered incentives/bribes.

[Dargo]

Probably waiting on being offered incentives/bribes.
This is about a long-standing frustration with the Turkish government. Countries like Sweden and Finland, but according to Erdoğan also the Netherlands, give asylum to people who are labeled as terrorists in Turkey. This includes, for example, supporters of the Gülen Movement, which Turkey believes is responsible for the failed coup in 2016. But especially also about Kurdish fighters.

Turkey has been at war for decades with the PKK, which is also listed as a terror group in the EU. Turkey claims that both Sweden and Finland are harboring PKK fighters. The point is that Turkey also sees Syrian fighters of the YPG as an offshoot of the PKK and thus also dismisses them as terrorists. While Western countries have actually supported that YPG in the fight against Islamic State.

Erdoğan seizes this opportunity to put this in the spotlight. Especially now, there is an important decision on which all NATO countries must agree. Also, he needs this for his own goal to be reelected think bribes will help a lot certainly with Turkish economical state gone down the drain.

[Jimbuna]

This is about a long-standing frustration with the Turkish government. Countries like Sweden and Finland, but according to Erdoğan also the Netherlands, give asylum to people who are labeled as terrorists in Turkey. This includes, for example, supporters of the Gülen Movement, which Turkey believes is responsible for the failed coup in 2016. But especially also about Kurdish fighters.

Turkey has been at war for decades with the PKK, which is also listed as a terror group in the EU. Turkey claims that both Sweden and Finland are harboring PKK fighters. The point is that Turkey also sees Syrian fighters of the YPG as an offshoot of the PKK and thus also dismisses them as terrorists. While Western countries have actually supported that YPG in the fight against Islamic State.

Erdoğan seizes this opportunity to put this in the spotlight. Especially now, there is an important decision on which all NATO countries must agree. Also, he needs this for his own goal to be reelected think bribes will help a lot certainly with Turkish economical state gone down the drain.

I'll readily admit I'm no fan of Erdogan and consider Turkey a bit of a potential liability in its role as a NATO member.

[Dargo]

I'll readily admit I'm no fan of Erdogan and consider Turkey a bit of a potential liability in its role as a NATO member.
He is, EU done a deal that Turkey would harbor Syrian refugees and paid billions for it what does Erdoğan couple years later he opens border to Greece to get more money. There is little chance that Sweden and Finland will extradite, but on the issue of arms embargoes against Turkey, there may be something to gain. Restricting arms sales to Turkey have been a thorn in its side for years. Turkey is also keen to buy F-16s from the US.

[Dargo]

The European Commission, France and Germany all announced that European energy companies should be allowed to pay for gas in rubles at a closed meeting between EC representatives and EU diplomats in Brussels on late Friday evening.

Poland & the Netherlands were outraged. Poland’s PM Mateusz Morawiecki says that he is disappointed by how the EU is handling the issue and says that Russia unilaterally cut Poland off from Russian gas in breach of the contract signed between the two. At the meeting, the French side went even further and said that European companies could open bank accounts in rubles in Russian banks without this being an act that goes against EU sanctions.

https://businessinsider.com.pl/gospodarka/komisja-europejska-tlumaczy-jak-placic-za-gaz-w-rublach-morawiecki-krytykuje/ps6e3dw.amp

[Dargo]

Seriously wounded Azov fighters were evacuated from Azovstal and taken to Donetsk, occupied by Russia. Azov commander Denys Prokopenko asked the public not to blame them for this decision. Zelenskyy will personally tell all the information on Azovstal in his evening address.

[Skybird]

The European Commission, France and Germany all announced that European energy companies should be allowed to pay for gas in rubles at a closed meeting between EC representatives and EU diplomats in Brussels on late Friday evening.

Poland & the Netherlands were outraged. Poland’s PM Mateusz Morawiecki says that he is disappointed by how the EU is handling the issue and says that Russia unilaterally cut Poland off from Russian gas in breach of the contract signed between the two. At the meeting, the French side went even further and said that European companies could open bank accounts in rubles in Russian banks without this being an act that goes against EU sanctions.

https://businessinsider.com.pl/gospodarka/komisja-europejska-tlumaczy-jak-placic-za-gaz-w-rublach-morawiecki-krytykuje/ps6e3dw.amp


If true ^, I wish the US would intervene and threaten - and impose - sanctions on according EU companies of the kind they threatened against German companies related to Nord Stream 2 last year and the years before.

[Catfish]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxsFu0-ELYc

Bad news. Are there any known weaknesses? (asking for a friend)

[Dargo]

Denys Prokopenko, the commander of Azov special regiment, said on May 16 that Ukrainian soldiers at Azovstal have "fulfilled their orders" and "were distracting the Russian army for 82 days." The statement appeared to signal the end of the siege of Azovstal, the steel plant that remains the last Ukrainian-held part of Mariupol.

[Skybird]

Bad news. Are there any known weaknesses? (asking for a friend)
Should be a match for certain atgms, obviously a tank's cannon, artillery, high flying drones, AT mines.

[FUBAR295]

Bad news. Are there any known weaknesses? (asking for a friend)

If they store the Ammo inside the turret they will go up just like the other Russian tanks.

[Dargo]

Apparently, one Russian KGB lieutenant colonel equals one Austrian corporal as military strategist. :D

Vladimir Putin has become so personally involved in the Ukraine war that he is making operational and tactical decisions “at the level of a colonel or brigadier”, according to western military sources...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/16/putin-involved-russia-ukraine-war-western-sources

[Rockstar]

Bad news. Are there any known weaknesses? (asking for a friend)

The ‘Terminator’ is scary but so are the BMP’s, T-72’s and T-90 ‘s all are very formidable weapons and in the right hands should have been more than enough to get the job done. But, I got a feeling the ‘Terminator’s’ weakness is the same as the battle tanks and BMP’s. First, it’s an Armata Chassis which if Im not mistaken lack numbers, then there’s poor logistical support, lack of a defined objective, little to no air or ground support, poor communications, and most likely only a small pool of trained and experienced crews from which to draw.

But then if Ukraine can no longer fight because of their own possible loses of which we don’t often if ever hear about. Who knows what might be the straw that brakes the camels back.

A few months old but a decent analysis of why Russia appears to be getting its arse kicked by Ukraine. He calls things like the Armata “Prestige weapons”
https://youtu.be/KJkmcNjh_bg

[mapuc]

Apparently, one Russian KGB lieutenant colonel equals one Austrian corporal as military strategist. :D

Vladimir Putin has become so personally involved in the Ukraine war that he is making operational and tactical decisions “at the level of a colonel or brigadier”, according to western military sources...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/16/putin-involved-russia-ukraine-war-western-sources


Hmm seem to recall some other historical person doing the same even though some of them hadn't higher level than corporal.

Markus

[Skybird]

From Wikipedia:


"My personal opinion is that a machine like the Terminator is dubious. Simply because it does not have any advantages that are significant over the main battle tank. Neither in terms of the fire control system, nor in terms of the capabilities of conducting reconnaissance, surveillance and target designation, nor in terms of the capabilities of their weapons. That is why I say that finding the Terminator's place in battle formation is problematic[39] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BMPT_Terminator#cite_note-43) In terms of its reconnaissance capabilities, the BMPT offers nothing to surpass the means of observation and fire control of the contemporary tanks."[40] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BMPT_Terminator#cite_note-44)
— Viktor Ivanovich Murahovskij, Expert Member at Military and Industrial Council of Russian Federation


And a crew of FIVE. I beg you...

[Dargo]

KYIV/MARIUPOL, Ukraine, May 16 (Reuters) - The Ukrainian unit holed up beneath the Azovstal steelworks in Mariupol said on Monday its garrison was fulfilling orders to save the lives of troops, an apparent sign that the longest and bloodiest battle of the Ukraine war had come to an end.

Reuters saw about a dozen buses apparently carrying Ukrainian fighters leaving the plant on Monday. It was not possible to determine how many people were aboard. Some 600 fighters have been estimated to be inside the vast Soviet-era plant, including dozens of wounded.

"In order to save lives, the entire Mariupol garrison is implementing the approved decision of the Supreme Military Command and hopes for the support of the Ukrainian people," the Azov Regiment said in a social media post.

It said the defenders of Mariupol, in the southeast, had held out for 82 days, buying time for the rest of Ukraine to battle Russian forces and secure Western arms needed to withstand Russia's assault.

The steelworks was the last Ukrainian-held bastion in the once prosperous port, now in ruins after months of Russian siege that Ukraine says killed tens of thousands of people.

Since February, Mariupol's devastation has become a symbol both of Ukraine's ability to withstand Russia's invasion, and of Russia's willingness to destroy Ukrainian cities that hold out.

In a video accompanying the Azov Regiment statement, one of the unit's senior commanders, Denys Prokopenko, said: "The main thing is to realise all the risks, is there a plan B, are you fully committed to that plan which must allow for fulfilling the assigned tasks and preserve the lives and health of personnel?"

"This is the highest level of overseeing troops. All the more so when your decision is endorsed by the highest military command."

Prokopenko did not spell out what action the defenders were taking. The video was released hours after Russia said it had agreed to evacuate wounded Ukrainian soldiers to a medical facility in the Russian-controlled town of Novoazovsk.

Apart from the steelworks, Mariupol is entirely in Russian hands after a siege which left residents huddled in basements with no food and water and streets littered with dead bodies.

Moscow denies having targeted civilians. The United Nations and Red Cross both estimate thousands of civilians died, with the true toll still uncounted.

The last defenders, including many who were wounded, had been holding out for weeks in bunkers and tunnels built to withstand nuclear war, deep beneath Azovstal, one of the largest metallurgical plants in Europe. Civilians were evacuated from inside the plant earlier this month.

"An agreement has been reached on the removal of the wounded," Russia's defence ministry said. "A humanitarian corridor has been opened, through which wounded Ukrainian servicemen are being taken to a medical facility in Novoazovsk."

Ukraine's Deputy Defence Minister Hanna Malyar told Ukrainian television: "Any information can harm the processes that are taking place ... Inasmuch as the process is under way, we can't say what's happening right now."

Earlier, the wife of an Azov Battalion member had described conditions at the plant: "They are in hell. They receive new wounds every day. They are without legs or arms, exhausted, without medicines," Natalia Zaritskaya said.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-counter-attacks-russian-forces-east-2022-05-16/

[Rockstar]

Let’s face it the ‘Azov battalion/regiment is the one organization which has a widely known reputation of being ‘neo-Nazis’. I wonder with their defeat will Putin now declare Ukraine de-nazified and begin signaling he’s ready to negotiate.

[Dargo]

Let’s face it the ‘Azov battalion/regiment is the one organization which has a widely known reputation of being ‘neo-Nazis’. I wonder with their defeat will Putin now declare Ukraine de-nazified and begin signaling he’s ready to negotiate.
Nah, it was never about denazification.

[Rockstar]

Nah, it was never about denazification.

You’re right. But assuming if what we’re hearing about the Russian armed forces is true, and I think it is. If I were Putin I’d be very tempted to proclaim ‘mission accomplished’ and use it as an exit strategy or an excuse to begin negotiations to keep from losing current gains.

It has also crossed my mind the Azov regiment is the sacrificial lamb that brings peace. Which, besides the possible lack of Ukrainian offensive capabilities, might explain why we’re not seeing any real effort to relieve Mariupul.

:D. https://media.voltron.voanews.com/Drupal/01live-166/styles/892x501/s3/2019-04/39CBB8CE-17CF-477F-992E-0956133744C9.jpg?itok=4rpp-FKF

[Dargo]

53 seriously injured people have been evacuated from the Azovstal factory in Mariupol and taken to hospital in Novoazovsk, Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maljar says in a video message. 211 others were taken to Olenivka via a humanitarian corridor. Both places are under the control of pro-Russian rebels. According to Maljar, all evacuees will return to Ukrainian-controlled territory through exchanges with the Russians.

[astvitaliy1982]

2227 people were blocked at Azovstal. Not 600, as it was written in the post above.

[astvitaliy1982]

The interrogation of Ukrainian prisoners of war from Azovstal has begun — Irina Kuksenkova, correspondent of Channel One

According to the correspondent, among the Ukrainian military who surrendered, 144 people are fighters of the National Guard. Now they are being interrogated in Yelenovka, where they were taken at night.

[astvitaliy1982]

Those who have settled on "Azovstal" are asked not to take pictures and not to take video of their surrender

Now, at the Azovstal tunnel, another group of Ukrainian servicemen is waiting for an exit to surrender. The commander of the Vostok battalion of the DPR NM, Alexander Khodakovsky, said that one of the conditions for surrender was a ban on filming.

"The exit point is "our" tunnel, the exit time is soon," Khodakovsky said.

[astvitaliy1982]

APU from "Grad" fire at the pre-trial detention center in Elenovka, where the captured "Azov" are taken

According to the source Readovka, Ukrainians fired at the pre-trial detention center in Elenovka, probably wanting to "double their three hundredths." The DPR JCCC reported that an attack from the Ukrainian side was recorded this morning — the AFU fired 10 missiles from the BM-21 Grad.

[Catfish]

In a way i am glad this is over.

I would take "Channel One" (Putin's worst propaganda machine) and any other russian broadcaster 'news' with a ton of salt :03:

[Catfish]

Russia's propaganda network
"Here's the warped reality I saw presented to viewers"
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/03/02/media/rt-propaganda-network/index.html


How a French satellite operator helps keep Russia’s TV propaganda online
"Eutelsat refuses to stop Russia from broadcasting state-run programming"
https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2022/05/how-a-french-satellite-operator-helps-keep-russias-tv-propaganda-online/2/

[Jimbuna]

In a way i am glad this is over.

I would take "Channel One" (Putin's worst propaganda machine) and any other russian broadcaster 'news' with a ton of salt :03:

I'll add an additional ton for good measure.

[Jimbuna]

The Ukrainian military says the defenders of Mariupol have ended their mission, after hundreds of soldiers left the Azovstal steel plant.

More than 260 fighters were taken to Russian-controlled territory late on Monday.

They are expected to be exchanged for Russian prisoners of war.

But some people remain trapped in the plant and efforts to rescue them are ongoing, Ukraine says.

Russia already controlled the rest of Mariupol, a strategic southern port city that has been razed by heavy bombing.

Western military sources say Vladimir Putin is now directly involved in the day-to-day running of the war, taking decisions normally made by more junior officers.

Meanwhile Turkey's president suggests he could block Finland and Sweden's applications to join Nato, accusing them of harbouring terrorists.

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EKakNiMb8E8

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cGxERWI_sEU

[Skybird]

Its the Daily Mail. Sounds like a Hollywood plot for depicting the evil villain in some thriller.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10820515/Putins-commanders-slaughtering-wounded-soldiers-captured-Russian-troops-reveal.html


Putin's commanders are slaughtering their own wounded soldiers rather than retrieving them from the battlefield for medical treatment, captured Russian soldiers reveal

One should never say "nothing surprises me anymore".

True or propaganda? Is claimed in German media quoting form the Mail's source there is video evidence.

[Jimbuna]

Often called the Daily Fail here in the UK but nothing printed abot the behaviour of Russia during this conflict surprises me anymore.

[Skybird]

Never forget: its also a hige propaganda war by boith sides, and the reports about Ukriane'S successes should not be taken as evidence that its general situation, especially in the long term, is not worse than we might think.



https://time.com/6176748/ukraine-war-economy/


Thats why I assume the US is corretc in wanting to pish the price for Russia'S army as high as possible - before Russia maybe evenmtually will nevertheless "win" the war. Thats what we should aim at: to make Russia bkleed, bleed more, and then bleed some. Becasue edspite all the propaganda, the ltimate victory for Ukreiane maybe is not as clearly defined as the mdeia make us think. The damages on the eocnomy and cities is unimaginable. Possible that the Ukraine drives Russia out - and is nevertheless not viable anymore. Maybe Russia's war goals have changed: and now is simply annihilation.



And so the FOCUS writes correctly:

Anyone following the current war coverage can quickly get the impression that everything has long since been decided in Ukraine. One strategic mistake of Russia follows the next, the Russian losses due to the fierce resistance of the Ukrainian army are obviously considerable. After the rapid conquest of Kiev failed in the first weeks of the war, the Russian offensive in the Donbass is also proceeding sluggishly, measured against the proclaimed goal of occupying all of eastern Ukraine in the shortest possible time.

However, just because Ukraine is not losing does not mean, conversely, that it is about to win the war. On the contrary.

Meanwhile, experts predict a long and grueling conflict, possibly lasting several years. And the Russian army still clearly outnumbers the Ukrainian one. On this premise, Ukraine is in a far more difficult position than one would think given current military successes.

How the war plays out for Ukraine in the medium term depends primarily on one factor: massive arms deliveries from the West. Already, the influence of Western weapons on the conflict is unmistakable. Anti-tank, anti-air and anti-ship missiles, air defense systems and other weapons have arrived in Kiev from the United Kingdom. Slovakia sent the strategically important S-300 air defense system, and the United States sent drones, howitzers, missiles and anti-tank systems. Where would Russian troops be today without these supplies? Possibly much further northwest, perhaps even in Kiev.

According to military experts, however, heavy weapon systems in particular, especially the tanks that Ukraine is now so urgently demanding, require longer training on the equipment. Whether Ukraine will have the time is uncertain, given the war of attrition already underway. At the same time, Time magazine, citing sources in the Ukrainian Defense Ministry, reports that it already lacks the capacity to deploy all of the military aid it has received so far.

Without the delivery and, above all, the use of heavy weapons, military successes will hardly be possible in the medium term, Markus Reisner also believes. Reisner is a colonel in the Austrian Armed Forces and head of the development department at the Military Academy in Wiener Neustadt.

"For a war of attrition, you need - as you can already guess from the name - lots of material, and it is no coincidence that Ukraine started demanding heavy weapons at the very moment when Russia was focusing on eastern Ukraine," he says in an interview with FOCUS Online. Both sides would keep hitting each other until one of them gave in. "It's simply a matter of who has the longer breath," he says.

It could become increasingly difficult for Ukraine to even get the weapons from the West to where they are needed. The rail network is the crucial factor here, and Russia knows it, too.

"Russian forces are systematically destroying the railroad infrastructure," wrote the head of the state railroad Ukrsalisnitsa, Olexander Kamishin, in mid-April. Army leaders in Kiev said the Russians "want to destroy the supply routes for military-technical support from partner countries. For this purpose, they are focusing attacks on railroad nodes."

The fact that Russia specifically attacks neuralgic points in the logistics of war is currently demonstrated by the example of Odessa. There, the Russian army cut the central train connection to the port city, with the result that hardly any fuel can be supplied from the West.

Whether Ukraine ultimately gets enough heavy weapons to the front line will also determine whether the country can survive economically on its own. After all, the territorial losses Ukraine has suffered in the southeast are massive, despite all the reports of success, and are hitting the country's economy at its core.

Putin's troops hold the metropolises of Kherson and the remnants of Mariupol, as well as the regions in between. In the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, borders have shifted far inland compared to pre-war times. For example, while an estimated 60 percent of Luhansk was in Ukrainian hands before the war, Russia now holds a good 80 percent.

All of this is crucial because the southeast is enormously important to Ukraine's economy - from wheat to oil production to ports. These areas are either already in Russian hands or at least contested. All this is essential for Ukraine's economic survival, says military expert Reisner. It is therefore only logical that Ukraine has made the recapture of the occupied territories its war goal.
The economic damage inflicted on Ukraine by the war can also be seen in bare figures. While Ukraine's gross domestic product (GDP) grew by an average of seven percent a year before the war, it has plummeted by a devastating 45-50 percent since the war began. The dependence on Russian energy imports is having a massive impact. In addition, the Russian naval blockade means that the country can no longer export goods across the Black Sea. This costs the Ukrainian economy $170 million a day.

Under the weight of the sanctions, Russia's GDP fell by "only" 7 percent in the same period. Whether and for how long Russia's economy can withstand Western sanctions in the medium term remains one of the war-deciding questions.

What does all this mean for the fate of Ukraine? The question cannot be answered seriously, says Markus Reisner. "How high is Russia's mobilization potential really - i.e., how many troops can Putin push in? To what extent is the EU united in imposing an energy embargo? How quickly can more weapons systems be delivered to Ukraine?"

All of these unanswered questions would have an impact on the outcome of the war.

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)
Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)

[mapuc]

we can expect to see the slow but steady degradation of Russian forces. Eventually, this may lead to a 1917-style collapse as morale within the Russian army continues to plummet.

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/vladimir-putin-is-running-out-of-options-to-avoid-defeat-in-ukraine/

Markus

[Catfish]

re Skybird
Focus is right, but regarding destruction of transport lines no one hinders Ukraine to do the same on Russian territory. After all this is a war.

[Jimbuna]

Other forms of protest have been more informal. Large numbers of Russian troops have simply abandoned their tanks and armored vehicles in Ukraine and fled or surrendered. This has enabled the Ukrainian military to acquire over 230 Russian tanks and earned Russia the unwelcome status of Ukraine’s number one arms supplier.

:haha:

[Jimbuna]

Retired colonel speaks out on Russian TV
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61484222

Can't decide if he is very brave or extremely stupid :hmmm:

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YP5ECHZTC3I

[Skybird]

Can't decide if he is very brave or extremely stupid :hmmm:
Or a puppet.
Really, I do not know what to make of him. Its the second time he shows up. He could be brave. He could be suicidal. He could be on a mission for the regimeto deceive world media and world opinion or the ukrainians.

Nothing is just to be believed these days.

[Skybird]

re Skybird
Focus is right, but regarding destruction of transport lines no one hinders Ukraine to do the same on Russian territory. After all this is a war.
Do they have the reach? Their tiny air force is up against russian air force and Russian air defences. Andn their ground-ground missiles - I do not know their capacity in this regard.



I am all for brigning the war onto Russian soil Quesaiton is whether the Ukrainians can do that. Numercially, they are oifnerior. They have had losses. They must be exhausted. And always again: the range of their weapons. Russia on the other hand can attack Odessa from bombers that stay in Russian air space, even when their smart ammunition is said to run thin, too - the ukraine must have even less....

[Jimbuna]

Nothing is just to be believed these days.

True that :yep:

Not convinced that being stated below is true either.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_qV5H6zsieM

[mapuc]

Does anyone of you have an idea of what will happen in Ukraine and in Russia if The Russian military collapse ?

Markus

[Dargo]

Does anyone of you have an idea of what will happen in Ukraine and in Russia if The Russian military collapse ?

MarkusIn Russia regime change but that does not mean it is gone to be better Ukraine will retake their territories in worst case Russia will get a revolution/civil war

[Skybird]

Does anyone of you have an idea of what will happen in Ukraine and in Russia if The Russian military collapse ?

Markus
Ukraine's economy will gasp for breath for years, in Russia a successor to Putin will come to power who is even more evil than Putin - but if we are lucky, not as cunning. The world economy, Europe's energy issue, and the global food supply will all be massively affected for years, which will keep the other crises, that already existed before, accelerating.

After the war comes the after-war.

In the long run , Russia as a production ecnomy (as which it had no big repuation anyway) is at least as done as is the Ukraine. Since it can only sell arms and gas/energy/oil and ores and ressources and grains, no industrial products of quality, a shrinking demand for their natural ressources will makem Russia even more instabile - and dangerous. This will not have been the last war started by Russia in this century. they cna keep their peopel fed, but that they can always "organise" the money needed to run a state budget and prevent civil unrest and mass unemployment, remains to be seen. For Russians, dark decades lie ahead.

[August]

Does anyone of you have an idea of what will happen in Ukraine and in Russia if The Russian military collapse ?

Markus




The last time the Russian Army collapsed was back in 1917, it ended up taking down the entire government. The Bolsheviks who replaced the Czar were on the march into Poland within a couple of years.

[mapuc]

Thank you for your answer to my question.

I wonder if Dargo and August isn't the one who may be the one who will be closest

That we will se a bloody civil war in Russia.

When it comes to our supply of gas and Oil and other thing Skybird is spot on-I think he's right.

Markus

[mapuc]

Danish TV2News wrote:


Putin lashes out at Sweden and Finland: - We will act on any enlargement

Finland and Sweden are expected to hand in their official applications for NATO membership in a matter of days.

Russian President Vladimir Putin is now reacting to Finland and Sweden's plans to join the NATO defence alliance.

Putin lashes out at both Nordic countries, which he says will face consequences from Russia if they join the alliance.

Putin calls NATO enlargement a problem and adds that it is in the US interest if the Nordic countries join.

Finland and Sweden are expected to submit their official applications for NATO membership in a few days - when they do, Russia will respond, Putin says.

- We will act on any expansion of NATO's military infrastructure in these countries, the president says.

At the same time, Putin stresses that he has no problem with Sweden and Finland as nations.

Putin's announcement came during a meeting in Moscow to which the Russian president has summoned the other members of the CSTO military alliance, which includes Belarus and Kazakhstan.

Muted reaction

Weekly Russia correspondent Andrey Kazankov calls Putin's reaction "subdued".

- He doesn't have much to threaten Finland and Sweden with at the moment, when his troops are struggling to win in Ukraine. At the same time, Finland and Sweden mean far less to Putin than Ukraine. He can live with Sweden and Finland pursuing an independent foreign policy. He cannot do that with Ukraine.

On Monday afternoon, the Swedish government formally decided that Sweden will apply for membership of NATO. The country's prime minister, Magdalena Andersson, says this at a press conference.

She calls Russia's war in Ukraine "one of the worst violations ever of the UN Charter".

- The best thing for Sweden's security is for us to join NATO, says Magdalena Andersson.

Already on Thursday last week, Finland's prime minister and president announced that Finland would apply for membership of the defence alliance.

The matter will be debated in the Finnish parliament on Monday, but as there is already a majority in favour of NATO membership, the parliamentary debate is considered a formality.

Has called Putin
On Saturday, Finnish President Sauli Niinistö called President Putin to inform him of the upcoming application.

The conversation between the two leaders was held "without tensions", Niinistö writes on Twitter and in a press release.

According to Russian news agency RIA, Putin told the Finnish president that abandoning neutrality and NATO membership for Finland would be "a mistake".

He added that it could have a bad impact on Russian-Finnish relations.


Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)


Markus

[Rockstar]

Tomorrow the State Duma of the Russian Federation will consider the decision on a ban on an exchange of the Ukrainian fighters from "Azovstal" Джерело: https://censor.net/ua/n3341935

https://censor-net.translate.goog/ua/news/3341935/derjduma_rf_zavtra_rozglyane_uhvalu_pro_zaboronu_o bminu_ukrayinskyh_biyitsiv_z_azovstali?_x_tr_sl=au to&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-US&_x_tr_pto=wapp

On May 18, the State Duma of the Russian Federation will consider a draft resolution banning the exchange of Ukrainian fighters with Azovstal.
Russian deputies supported the corresponding offer of the chairman of committee of the State Duma of the Russian Federation on defense Andrey Kartapolov, informs Censor.NET with reference to RIA Novosti .

"The Defense Committee proposes to include in the agenda of the State Duma consideration of a draft resolution on behalf of the Chairman of the State Duma to prevent the exchange of Nazi criminals (Ukrainian soldiers and authorities in Russia continue to be unjustifiably accused of" Nazism ". - Ed.)", - said the chairman. State Duma on Defense Andriy Kartapolov at the plenary session. Deputies supported the proposal.

We will remind, the day before in mass media there was information on export of the Ukrainian defenders from "Azovstal".

The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces later said : "The evacuation of 53 severely wounded servicemen has begun. They were taken to a medical facility in Novoazovsk. Another 211 defenders were evacuated to Olenivka through a humanitarian corridor and returned to Ukrainian-controlled territory through an exchange procedure."

On May 17, during a plenary session, Russian State Duma spokesman Vyacheslav Volodin supported a proposal by Odessa-born Anatoliy Wasserman to ban the exchange of Ukrainian servicemen removed from Azovstal.

The Ministry of Defense of Ukraine stressed : "This political statement is designed for domestic propaganda and domestic political processes in Russia. From our side, we can say that the negotiation process is ongoing, and the rescue operation itself is ongoing." Джерело: https://censor.net/ua/n3341935

[Jeff-Groves]

Any bets they will be shot attempting an escape?
:hmmm:

[Reece]

Since they shoot their own men the Ukrainian soldiers have no hope!! :k_confused:

[August]

Any word on that British Expat that the Russians captured a couple weeks back? I don't believe they were going to give him POW status.

[Catfish]

Any bets they will be shot attempting an escape? :hmmm:
They would be better off to be shot i guess. There will be interrogation most probably with torture, and/or at least lifelong prison in a russian jail.

The sorry excuse for a parliament named "DUMA" will "decide" that an exchange or POW status will not be applied, so they are off limits.
Remember this is AZOV, the pretended excuse for the "special operation" since all Ukraine = Azov and has to be denazified/liberated/killed. Lies on top of lies.

I cannot imagine what awaits them, better do not think about it.
Why was there no possibility to push back russian military just for two days and get them out in time :nope:

[Skybird]

Zelensky certainly did not do them a favour when declaring them heroes of Ukraine and glorifying their deeds on TV - signalling to Russia that way how much a blow they could deliver to Ukrainians if not giving back the Azovs. I wonder what devil has ridden him there. If he thought he could protect them by raising their status in public awareness, I think it will backfire. I would love to be shown wrong.

[Jimbuna]

A Russian soldier accused of shooting dead a civilian has pleaded guilty in Ukraine's first war crimes trial.

Vadim Shishimarin, 21, admitted killing the unarmed 62-year-old in the Sumy region days after Russia began its invasion.

Russia's defence ministry says that 959 Ukrainian fighters from the Mariupol steelworks have been taken to Russian-controlled territory since Monday.

Ukraine is calling for a prisoner swap for the evacuated defenders, but their fate is currently uncertain. Ukraine has not said how many people it believes have left the complex.

Russia says the fighters will be treated according to international norms, but a senior Russian politician said "Nazi criminals" should not be exchanged.

The battle for Mariupol appears to be over after a devastating siege that lasted nearly three months.

[Jimbuna]

Sweden and Finland have formally submitted their applications to join Nato.

The alliance's secretary general Jens Stoltenberg said it was "a historic moment, which we must seize", adding that the Nordic countries' membership would increase shared security.

The two nations signalled their intention to apply for membership of the defence alliance in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

[Jimbuna]

EU to provide nearly €300bn to help move away from Russian energy

The EU can replace Russian fossil fuels with supplies from other countries, clean sources of power and saving energy, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen says.

The EU will provide nearly €300bn to help Europe move away from Russian energy - about €72bn in grants and €225bn in loans, she says.

The investments will include €10bn for gas infrastructure, €2bn for oil, and the rest for clean energy, von der Leyen says.

The commission is proposing raising its target for energy from renewable sources by 2030 from 40% to 45%, von der Leyen adds.

She also proposes providing up to €9bn in further aid to Ukraine this year.

Von der Leyen also says it is time to think about rebuilding Ukraine whenever the war ends, adding the EU has "a strategic interest in leading this reconstruction effort" but that it should not be the only contributing party.

"That is why we propose a reconstruction platform as part of this plan jointly led by Ukraine and the commission and bringing together EU member states, other bilateral or international donors, international financial institutions, and other like-minded partners," she says.

[Skybird]

Sweden and Finland have formally submitted their applications to join Nato.

The alliance's secretary general Jens Stoltenberg said it was "a historic moment, which we must seize", adding that the Nordic countries' membership would increase shared security.

The two nations signalled their intention to apply for membership of the defence alliance in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
And Turkey still blocks them. Turkey wants arms deliveries from the US thjat got put on halt, Erdoghan also fears that the balance inside NAOT shifts from mor ein Turkey'S and the south'S favoiur tiowards the Northerns Scandivian region. Due to his own humanitarian misdeeds he does not want Scandinavian countries being so influential. This longterm strategic aim could indeed become a major obstacle. Both NATO and the eU should consider to mount some real seriosu pressure instead of buying themselves out. Against Erdoghan works the financial (inflation 70%!) and economical crisis at home that does not allow him to endlessly manouver if the European states threaten and start to accentuate the Turkish crisis. His star is, like Putin's, sinking.

[Skybird]

The economic and financial crisis in Europe is still not severe enough, according to the EU commission. It thus mulls to cap gas prices, wants 300 billion Euros created (inflated) to "help" energy turnaround policies", and wants to further reduce productivity in the energy sector by instead pushing windmills and solar roofs becoming mandatory on all houses. Of course I translate their wishy washy glossy language into plain English here.

We all know what it means when you reduce productivity and the ability to produce: you reduce supply, in relation to that you increase demand, and so you drive up prices. The EU says it wants climate neutrality being accelerated and by that tightening timetables and treshhold criteria even further.

It does not matter whether they mean it well or not: what matters is that they display a terrible lack of understandig for basic economic market processes - and how inflation gets driven. This is not the time anymore to plan a cutting of all existign energy security on behalf of daydreaming and ideological hybris.

Its fair to say the EU is ringing ready for worstening the already perfect storm even further, and intentionally. What would be needed instead is a dramatic strenghtening of nuclear energy to become independend from unpredictable - and instabile! - wind and solar energy production. I see absolutely no other realistic option for the coming 40, 50 years or longer. Also, at thew current present we should noch further destroy our remainign energy security further while not havign replacements in place.

(For private house owners and landlords, it is becoming ruinous. In Germany they do a law now that landlords must pay 50% of the heating costs of their tenants. Whether tenants heat excessively or save energy, does not matter. The possible wasting frenzy of the tenant is somethign the house owner now gets punsihed for: who says he dioe snot heta moe becasue he knwos he pays only half the costs? He could heat 25% more than before, and still pay less than before!)

What have I learned today: no economic costs of a war - and a debt crisis and a financial crisis and an economic crisis all coming together - could ever be bad enough as if they could not be intentionally worstened further. :doh: Reason and sanity are boring, only chaos and conflict-heavy decline promise fun and entertainment. Lets party, and shatter what so far has escaped destruction!

[Jimbuna]

And Turkey still blocks them. Turkey wants arms deliveries from the US thjat got put on halt, Erdoghan also fears that the balance inside NAOT shifts from mor ein Turkey'S and the south'S favoiur tiowards the Northerns Scandivian region. Due to his own humanitarian misdeeds he does not want Scandinavian countries being so influential. This longterm strategic aim could indeed become a major obstacle. Both NATO and the eU should consider to mount some real seriosu pressure instead of buying themselves out. Against Erdoghan works the financial (inflation 70%!) and economical crisis at home that does not allow him to endlessly manouver if the European states threaten and start to accentuate the Turkish crisis. His star is, like Putin's, sinking.

I'm simply wondering if we'll ever get to the position where a choice has to be made between Turkey and the two Scandinavian countries.

As far as I remember no country has ever been thrown out of NATO but the time to choose may be coming.

[Skybird]

FOCUS:

Western sanctions are aimed at isolating Russia politically and weakening it economically so that it can no longer finance this war. As right and important as that is, the plan has a catch.

After nearly three months since the Russian invasion of Ukraine began, two things are clear: The Russian leadership has started a war under false assumptions that it cannot win. War and instability in eastern Europe will continue to preoccupy Germany and the EU for some time, even if the intensity of the fighting changes. Just like Vladimir Putin, the West has underestimated Ukraine's defense capabilities and overestimated Russia's military capabilities.

However, we should not now succumb to the assumption that Ukraine can win this war for the foreseeable future and drive Russian troops out of the country. While Russia is running out of soldiers, Ukraine is short of weapons, ammunition, and fuel. In that regard, it is likely that Moscow will order at least partial mobilization in Russian territories bordering Ukraine.

At the same time, Ukraine's defense capability depends on the volume, quality, and speed of Western arms deliveries, the maintenance of transit routes, and the training of Ukrainian soldiers on modern weapons by NATO countries. The decision by U.S.-led Western countries at the meeting at the Rammstein military base in late April to train and supply Ukraine with Western weapons indicates that Washington, too, is bracing for a prolonged war.
Russia's economy will survive - Putin's empire is not North Korea or Iran

This raises the question of how long can Moscow sustain this war? Western sanctions aim to isolate Russia politically and weaken it economically so that it can no longer finance this war. Although a consistent and tough response to Russian aggression against Ukraine and the European security order is important, it will hardly be possible in the short to medium term to persuade Vladimir Putin to give in.

According to the Russian Central Bank, the Russian economy will shrink by ten percent this year and imports will plunge by 40 to 50 percent. Inflation may rise to 30 percent by the end of the year, with negative effects on incomes and private consumption. At the same time, the Russian Central Bank has stabilized the macroeconomic situation and the ruble at almost pre-war levels. Even though many Western companies are leaving the country and the massive sanctions mean that modern technology and important components for Russian production are missing, the Russian economy will survive. Most companies will continue to operate and job losses will be limited.

Russia is not North Korea or Iran, it is not possible to completely isolate and disconnect the country from the world economy due to its importance to global oil, gas and commodity markets. However, the standard of living of Russians will constantly decrease, which will lead to further migration from the country.

Even though the collective West is trying to isolate Russia politically, Moscow remains a member of the UN Security Council, an important player in the negotiations surrounding the Iranian nuclear agreement, in Syria, as well as in parts of Africa. Russia's military dominance in the Black Sea region has massive implications for European security, Turkey, and the Middle East.

China will not support Russia militarily or financially, but Xi and Putin have established long-term cooperation to weaken U.S. influence globally. Both will have an interest in setting their own norms against U.S. dominance, and more than a few countries could support that. India, South Africa and Brazil, like many other states, have not joined Western sanctions and are more likely to take advantage of favorable prices for Russian oil.

As united as the West currently is in responding to Russian aggression, with NATO expanding to include Finland and Sweden in northern Europe, other major states are reacting cautiously to isolate Russia completely. Russia will emerge from this war weakened economically, politically and militarily, but strong enough to create instability in its immediate neighborhood and use this against EU states. Putin will not give up on bringing Ukraine under control, even if his country is weakened in the medium to long term technologically and by a massive exodus of the knowledge elite.

It seems all the more important to move away from a reactive policy, which the German government stands for, and to develop a long-term approach to dealing with a weakened but dangerous Russia. In the long term, Ukraine must be integrated into the EU economically and in terms of energy policy, as well as being put in a position militarily to repel any Russian attack.

If this project fails, with no candidate status declared by the Commission in June, the EU will fail to stabilize its neighborhood. NATO becomes the central core of European security and the ability to deter Russian aggression. In the NATO accession of Sweden and Finland as well as the modernization of the Bundeswehr with a special fund of 100 billion euros lies the opportunity to integrate the European states more strongly in terms of security policy and to better distribute burdens for future defense tasks. At the same time, the now three million Russians who have left their country since the beginning of the year should be better integrated and work should be done systematically with the progressive part on another Russia after Putin.

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (http://www.DeepL.com/Translator) (free version)

[mapuc]

Skybird wrote:
"If this project fails, with no candidate status declared by the Commission in June, the EU will fail to stabilize its neighborhood."

This part of your comment made me laugh-Reason

Here June the 1st the Danes is having a referendum In which they has to decide whether they want Denmark to a part of an upcoming EU-Army or not.

Markus

[Skybird]

The Neue Zürcher Zeitung on that Russian ex-Colonel's appearance on TV:


Khodaryonok's appearance on the state television talk show is astonishing. Although the host, Olga Skabeeva, attempts to rebut some of his statements, she is unsuccessful. Nor is Khodaryonok shouted down or constantly interrupted, as is usually the case with unruly statements on Russian television. Russia expert Janis Kluge of the German think tank called Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik assumes that Khordaryonok's appearance was approved from above. The station will not have been surprised by his statements. After all, Khordaryonok had already been critical of a possible invasion of Ukraine before the war began.

Khordayonok published an essay three weeks before the Russian invasion of Ukraine in which he predicted the course of the war with astonishing accuracy. He predicted that an invasion of Ukraine could not be successfully completed quickly. He noted that the Ukrainian army had become much more powerful in the last eight years and that Ukrainian soldiers could not be defeated as quickly as in 2014.

Khordayonok also predicted the difficult house-to-house fighting in Ukraine's major cities and predicted very accurately the nature of Western support. For example, he explicitly addressed the U.S. World War II Lend-Lease Act, which allows for rapid arms deliveries to Ukraine. This was passed by Congress in late April. He concludes his essay with a clear statement: "An armed conflict in Ukraine is not in Russia's national interest."
Khordayonok plays the role of skeptical expert

Earlier, Chordajonok also played the role of the skeptical expert on television, dampening enthusiasm for the war. Just before the Russian military parade on May 9, he said that a general mobilization would do little good. Khordayonok pointed out in no uncertain terms that only well-trained soldiers and the latest technology would give Russia an advantage. Moreover, he said, Russia lacks the necessary resources to quickly turn the war in Ukraine in Russia's favor.

Thus, the TV station was aware of Khordayonok's views. It can be assumed that he was invited not in spite of his views, but because of them. Why Russian propaganda is now presenting a more nuanced picture of the Ukraine war to its own population remains unclear. However, it cannot be assumed that Khordayonok's appearance was unplanned.

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y2K1ST25ADU

[Rockstar]

Any bets they will be shot attempting an escape?
:hmmm:

So according to Russian news, they are to be put to work rebuilding Mariupol.

Unfortunately I can’t find link again, if I do I’ll post it


In other news from Russia. When I read their news especially when it comes to military equipment, production and deployment. I know for a fact it’s all complete bull crap. I seem to think things like the below article is fantasy world too, because I can’t find other sources to support it.

The State Duma proposed to annex Kherson region according to the Crimean scenario

Deputy Sinelshchikov proposed to annex Kherson region according to the Crimean scenario

https://ria.ru/20220513/kherson-1788282625.html

MOSCOW, May 13 - RIA Novosti. Kherson region could become part of Russia under the Crimean scheme - to hold a referendum on independence and entry into the Russian Federation, after which the Russian parliament would consider this issue - this opinion was expressed by the first deputy head of the State Duma Committee on State Construction and Legislation Yuri Sinelshchikov in an interview with RIA Novosti.

"Everything should be as it was in Crimea - first a referendum on recognition of independence, a referendum on joining Russia (or within the framework of one referendum), then the Russian parliament should resolve this issue, and then the treaty," the parliamentarian believes.

A Russian flag was hoisted over the Kherson City Administration building - RIA Novosti, 1920, 28.04.2022

April 28, 03:08
Kherson region is moving to the ruble zone

According to the politician, it is better to take all these possible steps after the end of hostilities. The expression of will should be objective and independent - "independent of their own emotions - today the people can say one thing, in military conditions, and tomorrow another," he stressed.

Sinelshchikov believes that the referendum should be held, despite the fact that its results may not be recognized abroad. "It's not in the international community, but in the residents of the Kherson region - do they want it themselves or not? And who knows, maybe they don't want it? You need to find out, it's primarily their will. Of course, a referendum is needed, everyone else is auxiliary things," he stated.

Earlier, Speaker of the Federation Council Valentina Matvienko said that only the residents of the Kherson region themselves can determine what their future will be like, the Russian Federation will agree with this decision.
Member of the Committee on International Affairs of the Federation Council Sergey Tsekov - RIA Novosti, 1920, 11.05.2022

May 11, 18:33
Tsekov: Kherson region may be admitted to Russia through a survey

In the Kherson region, several proposals were voiced about what the future of the region could be. It was about the possible unification of the Kherson People's Republic, and there were also initiatives to join the Russian Federation.
During a special operation on demilitarization of Ukraine, the Russian military took control of the entire Kherson region in the south of the country and the Azov part of the Zaporozhye region. Military and civil administrations have been formed in the regions, broadcasting of Russian TV channels and radio has begun, and trade ties with Crimea are being restored.

Secretary of the General Council of "United Russia" Andrey Turchak previously said that Russia has come to Kherson region forever, there should be no doubts about it. And the head of the administration of the Kherson region Vladimir Saldo stressed that the region is already an integral part of a large family - the Russian Federation.

Deputy Chairman of the Federation Council Committee on Constitutional Legislation and State Building Alexander Bashkin - RIA Novosti, 1920, 11.05.2022
May 11, 14:31

The decision on Kherson region will meet UN standards, said the senator

[Catfish]

^ A russian (!) referendum?

Muahahahahahahah :har:

[August]

So according to Russian news, they are to be put to work rebuilding Mariupol.



Probably like the German POWs were put to work rebuilding the USSR after WW2. Maybe 1 in 10 ever saw Germany again. The rest reside in shallow graves somewhere in Siberia as I expect many of the Ukrainian POWs will end up.

[Catfish]

Well what a celebration :ping:

https://youtu.be/hDDABoQ8-MQ?t=117

[Rockstar]

Yep I knew it, all those ‘stans’ smell weakness and are ready for a some individual independence or even form their own cartel and new profitable business ties with China, and Europe.

[Catfish]

^ Kazakhstan has said from day one of the russian invasion that it will not support Russia's war.
Probably like the German POWs were put to work rebuilding the USSR after WW2. Maybe 1 in 10 ever saw Germany again. The rest reside in shallow graves somewhere in Siberia as I expect many of the Ukrainian POWs will end up.
It is a shame. Even if the war would end soon (what i doubt) they will never get back. Maybe it will not matter in 30 years since people forget quickly, but for the current russian generation there should not be any international recognition, or trade treaties, only contempt.

[Skybird]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61496428

Look at the face of that boy and tell me he is a monster. He isn't. He just happened to have lost the birth lottery, and then needing to live in the wrong time, in the wrong place, until circumstances caught him up.

One more reason to dispise fascist Russia. For wehat they do to foreign people in Ukriane. And to their own sons. 21 years, and a life sentence. Sh!t. He should be held accoutnable, but oen shoudl nto forget what pep,e these Russian young soldiers are. They mostly come fro m small villages, have seen nothgun oif the world, low self.esteem, poor family backgrpoudn, and the army treated them like sh1t and god knows wehat to break their human integrity. In a way he is as much a victim as the man he has shot.

This is not meant to argue that one should fight less determined against the Russians. Hell, no! Certainly not. But there are the scumbags who enjoy what they do or who already have turned into animals themselves, and then there are the ones like this one. I simply cannot imagine he laughed after he shot the man.

And I know how small I still felt when I was 21. It was a fight to gain the self-assurance I later claimed my own. My sometimes risky travellings where a way to break out of my self-perceived tininess, so to speak. Crash course in self-confidence. It could have gone wrong on a few occasions. I was lucky.

This boy was not. Putin consumed him, like so many others. Soul-eating man-ruining old bastard. Why cant he just drop dead instead of destroying everythign and everyone he touches.

[mapuc]

Would love to be a moskito on the wall when they had this meeting.

What was it Putin wanted from the others ?

Was it support for the war in Ukraine ?
For something he has planned for the future ?

Markus

[Skybird]

Well what a celebration :ping:

https://youtu.be/hDDABoQ8-MQ?t=117


Spectre?

[Aktungbby]

actually there have been several prisoner swaps, usually on a one 4 one basis. I'd expect this to continue. A swap for the steel plant surrender Ukrainian soldiers has been proposed. Now that there is a conviction in a war crimes trial, 'twill be interesting to see a change in Russian modus operendi... which has include heist of the Mariapol museum's ancient Slavic gold looted and card off to Crimea. This is what Nazi's did in WWII. My guess is Putin is terminally ill and has unleashed his heinous war in anticipation(like Milosĕvic of Serbia) of not surviving to face a war crimes tribunal...:hmmm:

[mapuc]

:o :har:

I shake my head
It's not Ukraine and Nato Vs Putin no it's WEF Vs Putin.

Putin is fighting WEF and not Ukraine, Nato and EU.

Saw this on twitter-It was written in Danish.

So which symbol such I use ? This :o or this :har:

Markus

[Skybird]

actually there have been several prisoner swaps, usually on a one 4 one basis. I'd expect this to continue. A swap for the steel plant surrender Ukrainian soldiers has been proposed. Now that there is a conviction in a war crimes trial, 'twill be interesting to see a change in Russian modus operendi... which has include heist of the Mariapol museum's ancient Slavic gold looted and card off to Crimea. This is what Nazi's did in WWII. My guess is Putin is terminally ill and has unleashed his heinous war in anticipation(like Milosĕvic of Serbia) of not surviving to face a war crimes tribunal...:hmmm:

I fear no swaps possible for the Azovs, they are the claimed propaganda reason why this war was started: they are "Nazis", they are the illustration of the claimed main reason for Russia's cleaning operation, they are the onforgivable enemy, and having them in custody is like loot and prey, just more valuable. Putin will make maximum use of this opportunity to influence public opinion in his favour. They can be lucky if no examples are executed on them. That they will be sent to a carricature of a Russian Nuremberg trial, is not unrealistic.

[Catfish]

Seems Russia is on the move again and conquers villages. Also the first US Howitzers have been destroyed.

Looks bleak, at the moment (read further down)

https://www.newsweek.com/russians-reportedly-wipe-out-howitzers-sent-us-ukraine-latest-strikes-1707812

All propaganda?

[Skybird]

Seems Russia is on the move again and conquers villages. Also the first US Howitzers have been destroyed.

Looks bleak, at the moment (read further down):

https://www.newsweek.com/russians-reportedly-wipe-out-howitzers-sent-us-ukraine-latest-strikes-1707812
"War of attrition". Precondition for surviving it: lots of material reserves, and a long breath.

The Ukrainians could "win" the war it they can keep the battle mobile and the Russians on the run, which currently seems not to be the case. If both sides grind down with fixed frontlines and pick away at each others, Ukraine's chances are lousy and bad. Russia simply has a giant numerical and material advantage in heavy callibre huge weapons, and Ukraine's railroad network gets hammered.

Since the war shifted from the more agile battles of the first two phases to the more grinding atrition warfare we now see, I have become more pessimistic when assessing the chances.

Ukraine needs weapons and ammo, ammo and weapons (of which many will get destroyed, thats why they need even more of them). And they need to stay able to brign them to the front, which become increasingly difficult. The Russians may learn slowly only - but even them learn their lessons over time.

It would be helpful to raise the Ukrainian's ability to interdict the logistical supply chains already on Russian soil.

Where Ukraine falls back and Russia occupies the place, it seems partisan warfare has started to grow steadily.


I fear what will be left of Uklraione after it maybe has driven out the attackers will be in a desperate economic state. The Russian can and will do an awful lot of damage and destruction any way. Scorched Earth tactics: if they cant have it, nobody should have it.

[Jimbuna]

"War of attrition". Precondition for surviving it: lots of material reserves, and a long breath.

The Ukrainians could "win" the war it they can keep the battle mobile and the Russians on the run, which currently seems not to be the case. If both sides grind down with fixed frontlines and pick away at each others, Ukraine's chances are lousy and bad. Russia simply has a giant numerical and material advantage in heavy callibre huge weapons, and Ukraine's railroad network gets hammered.

Since the war shifted from the more agile battles of the first two phases to the more grinding atrition warfare we now see, I have become more pessimistic when assessing the chances.

Ukraine needs weapons and ammo, ammo and weapons (of which many will get destroyed, thats why they need even more of them). And they need to stay able to brign them to the front, which become increasingly difficult. The Russians may learn slowly only - but even them learn their lessons over time.

It would be helpful to raise the Ukrainian's ability to interdict the logistical supply chains already on Russian soil.

Where Ukraine falls back and Russia occupies the place, it seems partisan warfare has started to grow steadily.


I fear what will be left of Uklraione after it maybe has driven out the attackers will be in a desperate economic state. The Russian can and will do an awful lot of damage and destruction any way. Scorched Earth tactics: if they cant have it, nobody should have it.

Certainly beginning to look that way :yep:

[Jimbuna]

Moscow says more than 900 Ukrainian fighters from the Mariupol steelworks have been taken to a former prison colony in a Russian-controlled part of Donetsk.

Ukraine hasn't publicly commented on their fate. A pro-Russian separatist leader says more than 1,000 soldiers are still trapped in the plant.

Meanwhile, a Russian soldier on trial for war crimes in Kyiv has asked for forgiveness from the widow of the man he killed.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has called Russia's invasion an "absolute failure" with "catastrophic mistakes" made at the highest level.

The UN has warned that the war is increasing the risk of a global food shortage, and poorer nations could face years of hunger.

The G7 is meeting in Germany to discuss further financial support for Ukraine.

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Ia41S0l12Q

[Commander Wallace]

^ I remember reading somewhere, perhaps here in the forums, that Russia has lost 200 + fixed wing aircraft in their " special military operations " in the Ukraine. This of course doesn't include helicopters that Russia has lost in this war.

[Jimbuna]

I doubt we will ever find out the true number of Russian losses in terms of personnel, aircraft and tanks etc.

[Commander Wallace]

I doubt we will ever find out the true number of Russian losses in terms of personnel, aircraft and tanks etc.


I'm sure you're right. Because of nationalistic pride, Russia not wanting the Ukraine and it's allies knowing how effective it's weapons have been and keeping the Russian population in the dark over losses in personnel, not to mention disinformation coming out of Russia itself, the losses will be kept quiet.

[Skybird]

Russia mostly, if not completely, refuses to take back bodies of its fallen, offered by the Ukraine. Unwanted evidence, would force them to explain at home.

[Commander Wallace]

Russia mostly, if not completely, refuses to take back bodies of its fallen, offered by the Ukraine. Unwanted evidence, would force them to explain at home.




:agree: You are exactly right.

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yVHctkpNu24

[Skybird]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yVHctkpNu24
That colonel's theatre play - thats what it is imo - is given way too much attention. People seem to forget or overlook that what happens on this TV channel is orchestrated by the Kremlin. So instead of paying attention to what he says, people better should ask themselves why he is saying it this way, and in what way it is indicating the Kremlins future possibilities to benefit from it.

And if you see it this way, then what he says and had to say is no good news neither for Ukrainians nor for Russians. Not for the Ukraine becuse Russia needs to fight harder. Not for Russians, sinc it demands mobilization of additional forces forces to fight harder.

The colonel is preparing and paving the way for the declaration of a greater mobilization of forces and an extension of the timetable and expectations for the war. He swears Russians in to donate in blood and tears, else, so he implies, Russia would be humiliated. And, like Putin, he declares NATO responsible for the complications and blames all guilt on NATO: "So, dear Russians, rally around our flag - its NATO we are up again! Be ready to bring sacrifices!"

[Jimbuna]

Yep, pretty much how I see it :yep:

[Jimbuna]

BREAKING - Putin won't release vital food stocks to world until sanctions are looked at.

[Skybird]

Some military experts consider it possible in their expectations that Putin aleready may have lost half of his troops (counting oth kills and wounded). FOCUS:

A "blitzkrieg" is no longer an issue for the Putin army. In the meantime, it has become clear that the supposedly gigantic Russian army is a bogus giant. A military expert from the U.S. has now calculated Russia's possible losses - and comes to a shocking conclusion that European experts also consider plausible.

At the beginning of the war on February 24, experts expected a "blitzkrieg. Given the Russian army's numerical superiority, it seemed only a matter of days before Putin's troops overran Ukraine entirely and took Kiev.

On paper, the Russian dictator had at his disposal a gigantic army of over 900,000 men - four and a half times the number of Ukraine. Compared to Ukraine, the Russians had three times as many battle tanks and guns in their arsenal and tens of thousands more armored vehicles. In addition, they had the dreaded hypersonic missiles and an air force that was ten times superior.

Foreign policy expert Thomas Jäger of the University of Cologne to FOCUS Online: "The Russian figures on troop strength and combat power are deceptive, as with any army." Of the allegedly roughly 1 million Russian soldiers, at most 200,000 are earmarked for combat duty, Jäger said. The rest, he said, are employed in administration, service or logistics, or are conscripted.

The situation is similar with regard to materiel: Just as with the Bundeswehr, only a fraction of the Russian tanks, jets and ships are operational. Added to this is the rampant corruption in Russia, which is also detrimental to the material's suitability. It is highly likely that the figures in Russian statistics are exaggerated, and that many weapons systems are outdated, unsuitable or exist only on paper.

For example, the number of troops: not all of the 200,000 combat-capable soldiers can be deployed to the Russian-Ukrainian front. Many have to remain in other military bases on Russia's seemingly endless borders. U.S. military expert Michael Kofman calculates that Putin has thrown a maximum of about 125,000 soldiers into the Ukraine war so far. Kofman is an analyst at the Center for a new American Security, a pro-government think tank in Washington.

Kofman estimates the original troop strength of the Russian attackers at the beginning of the war at a maximum of 90,000, supplemented by auxiliary troops with a maximum of 25,000 soldiers - making a total of 115,000. In addition, he says, up to 12,000 soldiers were added as reinforcements as the war progressed. The figure of 190,000 men reported by the Russians or other estimates of 150,000 is exaggerated in Kofman's opinion in view of the somewhat lower battalion strength of the Russians.

He thus assumes that Vladimir Putin has thus far sent a maximum of about 127,000 soldiers to war. And of those, he says, about 10 percent are dead. Because from the different reports from Russia, the Ukraine or from foreign observers an average number of 12,000 killed Russian soldiers emerges.

Based on statistics from past wars and current data, analyst Kofman also estimates the ratio of Russian soldiers killed to wounded at 1 to 3.5. Too many wounded soldiers - even those still conditionally able to fight - can become a problem for the army, Kofman says: "Some wounded can still fight, but units can become unable to fight because of the number of killed, wounded and other types of casualties."

Thus, in addition to 12,000 dead, there are also 42,000 wounded Russian soldiers. The net result is that 54,000 men out of 127,000 are no longer or only partially fit for combat - or about 43 percent. Assuming a lower number of Russian troops, a good 50 percent of the 110,000 soldiers Putin has sent to the front would be dead or wounded by now.

Michel Wyss, an expert on warfare at the ETH Zurich Military Academy, points out, "Exact figures on Russian troop strength, dead and wounded simply don't exist, and the wide range of estimates and speculation reflects that." Wyss, however, considers the figures from Kofman, a renowned expert on the subject of the Russian military, to be plausible.

Former Bundeswehr Inspector General Harald Kujat agrees: "By and large, the figure of 12,000 dead Russian soldiers could be correct. I think ten percent is realistic," Kujat told FOCUS Online. "The ratio of 1 to 3.5 between dead and wounded seems a bit high to me. However, since the Russian army ventured into a high-loss house-to-house combat at the beginning of the war, that could also be correct in the end."

Wyss: "According to publicly available information, the Russian military leadership is trying to compensate for losses in its formations by offering short-term and, by Russian standards, very well-paid contracts for professional soldiers." Since conscripted soldiers are not allowed to be sent on combat missions, the Russian military leadership is using a ploy: "In addition, attempts are being made to get reservists and conscripts to sign corresponding contracts to serve as professional soldiers in Ukraine," Wyss explains: "These measures are aimed at avoiding partial or even general mobilization for as long as possible."

Despite the deployment of younger soldiers, Harald Kujat believes a long war is likely: "I don't think Russia is already running out of soldiers. In war, you always have a manpower problem and you always lose materiel - that's the cruel normality of war. Decimated battalions are then pulled out, regenerated and refreshed with young soldiers. In the long run, this can be problematic for Russia, but right now I don't see it happening."

The former inspector general adds, "It is clear that we overestimated the Russian forces at the beginning of the war. Now, however, we should not make the mistake of underestimating them."


Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SDfMIGmfOCM

[Jimbuna]

Ukrainian widow confronts Russian soldier accused of killing her husband https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61511640

[Skybird]

Herfried Münkler is professor emeritus of the theory of politics at Berlin's Humboldt University. His historically wide-ranging work includes: Machiavelli - The Grounding of Modern Political Thought from the Crisis of the Republic of Florence (2004) and: Empires - The Logic of World Domination - from Ancient Rome to the United States (2005).

Neue Zürcher Zeitung has this interview with him. I do not agree with everything he says, like I did not always agree with everything he wrote in his books of which I know three, and I certainly do not agree with quite some of his statements of the past about the positivity of Merkel's EU policy, still his arguments are well-founded enouhgh to depict a maybe realistic way things may go by. He only maybe, as often before, underestimates the dark side of Russia's true nature. So: take his comments with a grain of salt. They must be considered, but they must not all necessarily be true.



Mr. Münkler, we spoke a few weeks before the Russian attack on Ukraine on February 24. The conclusion of the conversation was that, from a European perspective, a neutral Ukraine, provided with binding security guarantees, would be the best solution to the conflict. Does that still hold true after almost three months of war?

Yes, because it would have prevented immense destruction and tens of thousands of deaths. Perhaps the territorial integrity of Ukraine, as it existed at the beginning of the war, could also have been ensured. And, by the way, also the European level of prosperity. Because it will suffer from higher defense spending, energy supply conversion and inflation. The European model, according to which mutual economic dependence and interdependence create trust and stability, is also gone. Finally, the war has global implications. Many countries are now saying to themselves: We cannot rely on international treaties; only the possession of nuclear weapons really secures us. This conclusion is a disaster.

In the same interview, you concluded that Ukraine has only a limited alliance capability because it lies at the crossroads of two zones of influence: that of Russia and that of the EU. As a non-aligned buffer state, however, it stabilizes the European peace order. The objection that can be raised against this perspective is that it underestimates Ukraine's political subjectivity, which has just been demonstrated in the country's successful resistance.

Whatever the outcome, Ukraine will be left out in the cold. While the country can sovereignly express its desire to join NATO and the EU, this does not imply their obligation to accept it. The process of joining the EU will be a very long one, should the Copenhagen criteria continue to apply. Moreover, further eastward enlargement would call into question the EU's ability to act. The idea of merely associating the country is an attempt to take this into account. This shows that we are in a zone of decreasing Western influence or in a zone of overlap with Russian influence. We could have come to an agreement on this in the so-called Normandy format, where, in addition to Germany, France and Russia, Ukraine also sat at the table . . .

. . . to agree on the mentioned neutrality with security guarantee?

Exactly. Why didn't Putin get involved? He probably saw a power-opportunistic opportunity, after Belarus and Kazakhstan had become dependent on him, to bring Ukraine completely within his sphere of influence. Moreover, he was afraid of a democratic Ukraine on his doorstep and probably also thinks that only a Russia with an incorporated Ukraine has imperial character. And he is obviously concerned with the renewal of the empire.

After initial hesitation, the West is stepping up its involvement and is betting on escalation. The American defense secretary said in Ramstein at the end of April that Russia must be weakened to the point where it no longer poses a threat to its neighbors. In addition, the Americans are setting up a lend-lease program that will get heavy weapons to the front lines quickly and cheaply.

Well, the ideas about a peace agreement are far apart in the West. The absolute minimum condition is certainly the continued existence of Ukraine as a sovereign state, but possibly reduced to the area west of the Dnipro. Germany and France consider a Ukraine within the borders of February 23 (i.e., without Crimea and separatist areas) a victory. The British want to restore the Ukraine of 2013, i.e., with Crimea and Donbass. Finally, the Americans have their own view. They say: Putin has gotten in our way again, when we now wanted to take care of Xi Jinping and the challenge from China and not Europe. That should never happen again.

So we are organizing a war of attrition against the Russians that will deplete their military potential. Because in wars of attrition, the depth of logistics and the ability to mobilize fighters are crucial. The Europeans are now signaling to the Russians that with a negotiated peace they can avoid being bled dry by the Americans with the help of the Ukrainians. So the West is playing with different options.

What role do the Ukrainians play? They are the ones who are fighting.

All right, at first glance it is a very important role: the brave army and the will of the population to resist. But if you look more closely, these are dependent variables of the influx of weapons and money from the West. There sit the Western strategists on one side and the Kremlin strategists on the other, and Ukraine is the theater of contention. This underlines once again our initial consideration that in this zone of overlapping spheres of interest, the clash of arms could have been avoided in favor of negotiations.

But Ukraine does not have to be instrumentalized for a war of attrition. It could say: "We are satisfied with the withdrawal of the Russians from the territories conquered since February 24. Then we will stop fighting.

True, but such a withdrawal of the Russians must first be forced militarily. This presupposes very rich European arms supplies and a reduction of Ukrainian dependence on the U.S. and its weapons.

What do victory and defeat mean in this war?

Victory and defeat are difficult terms. There are people, Habermas for example, who say: You cannot win against a nuclear power. That is an empirically false statement. Vietnam was victorious against the USA. Afghanistan first against the Soviet Union, then against the West. The question is what are the purpose and objective of a war. Ukraine can also win. Not in the sense of debellatio, defeating the enemy and invading Moscow. But by forcing the Russians to resign themselves to their far-reaching war aims. That is then a victory. I believe that this war will end when its continuation, with the loss of life and infrastructure, makes the Ukrainians more and more losers. The same goes for the Russians. Their failure to overrun such an inferior opponent is ruining the reputation of their army.

Which end do you think is likely?

I tend to think that the actors in Kiev and Moscow are rational thinkers. But one cannot be sure. The very large numbers of casualties could make it more difficult for Russia to exit the war by forcing Moscow to achieve any war aims and make even more sacrifices to do so. On the Ukrainian side, the hatred after the destruction of the country may be so great that they do not want to let the Russians out of the "headlock" and continue fighting. This would be understandable from a collective psychological point of view, but strategically and geopolitically it would be a disaster.

It is also possible that the fighting will end due to exhaustion. That would then lead to a cease-fire line somewhere in the east of the country, where the two armies would continue to face each other for a long time.

Yes, and as revisionist powers because one side or even both sides do not accept the status quo. This constellation made another war likely. Peace orders that are to endure must ensure that there are no revisionist powers. This can be learned from the failure of the Paris Peace Order of 1919 and the Geneva League of Nations.

Are we now witnessing a renaissance of the West and transatlantic unity?

The problems between Europe and the United States have not gone away, but they are not visible at present. The Americans continue to harbor the expectation that the Europeans must be able to solve such problems themselves, even militarily. In fact, there is no longer any alternative to this, and this defuses the differences with the USA. Because what could be called the Steinmeier model is off the table: establishing stability and trust through mutual economic dependence. The trust is gone, and it's gone completely. Of course, we will have to negotiate with Putin again. But we will not be able to take his word for it; instead, we will be permanently armored against him.

How is the EU faring in the conflict?

For the EU, this is something of a magic moment. For it accelerates a development in which the Union is moving away from its self-image as a bureaucratic regulator and is instead trying to become a foreign and security policy actor. This is a change in the EU's character that seemed unthinkable a few months ago. Sure, the breaking points remain: between North and South on financial issues, between East and West on the rule of law. But they are no longer so relevant because of the common threat from Russia.

At least there is a danger that Hungary under Viktor Orban will break through the united front as a ricochet - currently with its refusal to participate in the oil boycott.

I don't think so; EU money is more important to Orban than Russian oil. He is building his position to get something out of it elsewhere, such as the rule of law dispute. The bigger strategic problem is Serbia. Its friendship with Russia is deeper than Hungary's. And it is a revisionist power in the Balkans, both with regard to Kosovo and with regard to the Serb-dominated part of Bosnia. It will not be easy for the EU. If it says, no, we don't want another problematic member, then the Serbs could go all in on the Russian card. One day, the Russians will be there with troops to systematically destabilize the region. The goal would be to set the Balkans on fire, which is no great feat.

I am not sure about that. After all, Serbia is surrounded by NATO countries, and the appetite for war is not great in the outdated Balkans after the trauma of the wars of the 1990s.

It does not have to be a war with weapons; hybrid warfare, misinformation and the like can also destabilize. The question is: Will the EU manage to create a stable constellation there that cannot be destabilized from the outside? Or will the region remain "porous" and thus open to influence not only from the Russians but also from the Chinese?

Macron is responding constructively to this by proposing a link to the EU without full membership for difficult countries such as Ukraine or the candidates in the Balkans.

Yes, I'm particularly pleased about that because I've long thought of the EU as a circle of circles and an ellipse of ellipses: the Schengen area, the euro area, and so on. Now we can build an additional circle to include states on the periphery that are not, or not yet, suitable for full membership. This is actually very obvious to me, who has been studying the concept of empires for a long time. There is now an opportunity for the EU to become a strategic actor. An organization, in other words, that is not merely a mediator between everyone, like the UN, but that, out of necessity, pools the capabilities of the European countries and strengthens their clout.

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (http://www.DeepL.com/Translator) (free version)

[mapuc]

Defence Secretary Ben Wallace MP gave a speech at the National Army Museum, London, on Russia’s illegal and unprovoked invasion of Ukraine.

https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/speech-by-defence-secretary-on-russias-invasion-of-ukraine

An interesting speech I must say

Markus

[Buddahaid]

The Swiss are stirring.
https://intellinews.com/switzerland-inches-towards-nato-as-neutrality-is-put-to-the-test-244573/

[Catfish]

The Swiss are stirring.
https://intellinews.com/switzerland-inches-towards-nato-as-neutrality-is-put-to-the-test-244573/
Bang. :o

[Catfish]

Russian parliament to consider allowing over-40s to sign up for military.
Getting desparate?

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-parliament-consider-allowing-over-40s-sign-up-military-2022-05-20/

[Skybird]

Soon they start shanghaiying the drunks in the bars! :D

[Skybird]

Note the time slider in the window top left.


https://www.uawardata.com/

[Skybird]

Russia wants to sell power to Ukraine that was produced in occupied nuclear reactor.
This war has so many absurd political and economic constellations.
Ukraine calls Russia's plans "wishful thinking".

At the same time many Euzropoean energy copnaies pay Russian Gazprom in Rubles, despite EU sanction regime in place, and Greece and Malta refuse completely to not use their tnakers to tranbsport Russian oil , which is called for by EU sancitons.

Now we will see what the EU "sanctions" regime is worth while some player seem to test them. In pricniple the Eu now mist set sanctions against the offenders. For which the governments of the offendesr's countries would need to agree, which they won't.

A former high ranking employee from Gazprom revealed that over past years at Gazprom they were openly talking about and planning for the "Schroederizing" of European energy supplies - and calling it righ this, "Schroederizing".

[Skybird]

German industry is now planned to deliver 15 Gepards "in July", with 59,000 rounds of remaining ammunition they found somewhere.
The two cannons at full burst rate together consume 1100 rounds per minute, more than a single Gepard has loaded.

In the end, a total of 50 is planned to be delivered.

Ukrainian crews should already have gotten training in Juli.

[Skybird]

German industry is now planned to deliver 15 Gepards "in July", with 59,000 rounds of remaining ammunition they found somewhere.
The two cannons at full burst rate together consume 1100 rounds per minute, more than a single Gepard has loaded.



In the end, a total of 50 is planned to be delivered.



Ukrainian crews should already have gotten training in Juli.

[mapuc]

UN demands an ease or lift of the sanction against Russia

United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres is pursuing a high-stakes deal with Russia, Turkey and other nations to open up Ukrainian food exports to world markets and stave off a potential global food shortage, according to diplomats familiar with the effort.

Russia has sealed off Ukraine’s Black Sea ports to weaken the country and conquer its coast. Mr. Guterres has asked Moscow to permit some Ukrainian grain shipments in exchange for moves to ease Russian and Belarusian exports of potash fertilizer.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-n-seeks-to-ease-russian-blockade-of-ukraine-grain-shipping-to-avert-food-shortages-11652717161?mod=Searchresults_pos1&page=1

Markus

[Skybird]

Smugly-sweetly formulated (in German at least)! The NZZ writes:

On the night train to Kiev Selenski lets his colleagues play the role of their lives. Some may think that the trips to the Ukrainian capital are pure self-dramatization of Western politicians. Also, yes, but they are much more.

The Austrians carried smoke grenades in their hand luggage. If they had been caught in a shootout, they would have retreated to safety under the cover of a cloud of smoke, according to the plan. The emergency did not materialize, and Chancellor Karl Nehammer made it unmolested to Kiev in April and back to the Vienna Hofburg unharmed. There, he will perhaps be able to put the smoke petards to better use.

The Ukrainian capital has never been a dream destination for political missions. Nowadays, Kiev is both a duty and a nightmare for politicians from the West. Those who go can do many things very wrong and few things very right; those who don't go do something and therefore everything wrong. And once in Kiev, the most difficult thing is to show the right face to go with statesmanlike words. It is necessary to wrinkle the forehead at the right moment and without grimacing, to look confident and shaken in equal measure, not to let the pathos tip over into political kitsch.

As always, Boris Johnson was a master of insouciance and thus of authentic style during his visit to Kiev. He always plays himself. This is the role he masters best. And that fits even when it should be inappropriate. Not even in terms of fashion was he willing to make concessions. While all the others, from Annalena Baerbock to UN Secretary-General António Guterres, came in casual attire and thus paradoxically wanted to signal the seriousness of the situation, Johnson appeared as usual: in a baggy suit that slouched around his corpulent body, with a white shirt and blue tie. It meant nothing less than, "I'm on duty."

Together with Volodimir Selensky, he stormed through the almost empty streets of Kiev on April 9, accompanied by a surprisingly small number of heavily armed bodyguards, as if the devil (or Scotland Yard) were after him. But when one of the few passers-by approached him, he did not miss the opportunity to pause for an exchange and sing the praises of the president in front of the Kiev citizens. In the press conference with Selensky, he again addressed the Ukrainian people: "I bow to the bravery of the people of Ukraine. The world has new heroes thanks to you."

While Boris Johnson plays only himself really well, Volodimir Selensky, as a professional actor, masters several subjects of roles. He has understood better than anyone that politics requires theatrical staging and that a person is not a cynic if he also knows how to play what he stands for politically. It is only of anecdotal importance that since the outbreak of the war he has only appeared in olive green and sturdy shoes. In any case, the image and its message are clear and forceful. Whereby the trousers are always one size too big and the T-shirt one size too small, suggesting an astonishingly trained upper body.

Even more important is his rhetorical virtuosity. Soon there will be no parliament to which he has not spoken via video link. But no matter who he addresses, he knows at which sore point he can reach people. Sometimes it's as simple as his "I have a need" speech to the U.S. Congress, where he could be sure that everyone would hear Martin Luther King's "I have a dream. Sometimes the simplest ideas are the most effective. At the opening of the Cannes Film Festival on Tuesday, Selenski spoke to the assembled guests, reminding them of Charlie Chaplin's film "The Great Dictator" and urging them not to remain silent in turn.

In the meantime, Selenski has long since rewritten and expanded the script. The prelude was given on March 15 by the heads of government of Poland, the Czech Republic and Slovenia, when they set off on what was then still considered a thoroughly daring journey by night train to Kiev. Since then, a real race to Kiev has developed, in which both vanities and slights are cultivated according to the temperament of the travelers. While German Chancellor Scholz is still playing coy, his Austrian counterpart boasted on April 9 that he was the fourth European head of government to visit Kiev since the outbreak of the war.

Presumably, Boris Johnson arrived a few hours after him, which puts the latter in only 5th place in the rankings, which, as a practiced egocentric, should matter precious little to him.
Now, again, it is easy and therefore somewhat cheap to mock this travel behavior - actively promoted by Selenski. Of course, the home audience travels on the night train, even if not everyone travels with an entourage like Chancellor Nehammer: Twenty journalists were in his entourage and as many security forces (own and Ukrainian), moreover, medical personnel and in the luggage, in addition to petards, emergency rations from own army stocks.

And of course then sometimes the reporting or even the self-representation is in inverse proportion to the importance of the traveler. German opposition leader Friedrich Merz took the cake in this regard. From the overnight train on the morning of his arrival, he tweeted a video message to his fan base at home. "All safe, all good and Ukrainian authorities extremely cooperative, very pleasant people." What did he expect? All villains?

The journey from the Polish border to Kiev is long, up to twelve hours. That's when travelers think of one thing or another. Not everything would have to be told right away. The strange renaissance of the night train, on the other hand, turns the business trip into a small adventure. This, too, tempts people into heroic self-portrayals. Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala even wore a helmet and protective vest on the train.

No, there is no reason to make fun of these trips. Nor are they offensive - at least no more offensive than many other things in politics. After all, politics is not only about debates and resolutions, it must above all be communicated and presented. It is a stage on which what is played is taken seriously. And as on any stage, what is represented must be greater than reality. Therefore, what we see are signs or symbols. The trained actor Selenski has grasped this more precisely than many of his counterparts (who, after all, are willing to play along).

The Kiev travelers believe they are the main actors in this play. They are it for their home audience, when they put their faces into wrinkles and unpack the really big words. In the broader picture, they are just staffage. The focus is on the stage, namely Kiev and its settings. For every trip of a politician to Kiev is above all a signal in the direction of Moscow.

No one had understood this as well as Boris Johnson and acted accordingly. Right down to the bright blue tie, he made it clear without ambiguity: The visit was to a country and a city in a state of emergency, but the visit itself was business as usual. Johnson's message to Putin was: You may shoot up the country, but you're not going to get me to wear body armor or make a state visit in jeans and a casual jacket.

Meanwhile, the world is puzzling over when Emmanuel Macron will finally board the overnight train to Kiev. The French president is usually very good at symbolic gestures. Here, either his instincts have failed him - or he is worried about his suit or fears Putin's revenge.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, on the other hand, has already ceased to amaze. Now, at the beginning of the week, he revealed to the television station RTL that he would probably not be going to Kiev any time soon, because during a visit to the country "it must be important to make concrete progress. This should not just be a photo opportunity.

And for all those who might not have noticed the hint with the fence post and the kick in the leg, he added one more thing: "I will not join a group of people who do something for a short in and out with a photo opportunity. But when I do, it's always about very specific things." Maybe someone would have to tell him what play is currently being performed at Schaubühne Kiev. Perhaps someone would have to tell him that symbols - even if it's something as disreputable as a photo opportunity - are sometimes just as important in politics as "very concrete things." Because they are very concrete things

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (http://www.DeepL.com/Translator) (free version)

[Dargo]

The Swiss are stirring.
https://intellinews.com/switzerland-inches-towards-nato-as-neutrality-is-put-to-the-test-244573/The Swiss need to do a mandatory referendum to get this done, so it has be to approved by the population

[Rockstar]

Bang. :o

Haha. Just a guess but, I was reading a little bit about Swiss ammunition exports. Seems they make the ammo for the Gepard but because of Swiss ‘Neutrality’ they will not authorize Germany to re-export the Swiss made ammo to Ukraine.

Doubt they join NATO but appear to want to work closer with NATO. Realizing there’s a buttload of money to be made by shedding a little bit of that cloak of neutrality.

[Dargo]

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has been going on for three months. However, the fact that the current hostilities are taking place exclusively on the territory of Ukraine does not prevent the destruction of Russia’s critical and military infrastructure. Recently, there has been more and more news about the arson attacks on Russian military enlistment offices, explosions at fuel and lubricant storage facilities, fires at military and important civilian infrastructure facilities. Zaborona, together with military analyst Yigal Levin, is investigating who may be behind it and whether it will benefit Ukraine.

https://zaborona.com/en/explosions-and-arsons-in-russia-who-is-behind-it-and-what-is-the-benefit-for-ukraine-analysis-of-zaborona/

There is information that there is a large anti-war movement in Russia that is not about slogans or rallies (because slogans and rallies are not for Russia), but namely about sabotage... it can already be called guerrillas in Russia

[Dargo]

The aggressor has spent a rocket to destroy a toilet on the beach in Odesa region - City Council :D

The Russian military fired a rocket at Odesa and destroyed the beach toilet... https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/05/20/7347451/

[Reece]

:har::har:

[Jeff-Groves]

Probably suspected the Guy that sunk the Russian Ships was hiding there.
https://www.subsim.com/radioroom/picture.php?albumid=1069&pictureid=12529

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yqp7C8Kp2VM

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gz1PBcH7npE

[Jimbuna]

The war in Ukraine can only be resolved through "diplomacy", President Zelensky says despite a deadlock in negotiations.

He says “we want everything to return (to as it was before)" but "Russia does not want that"

President Biden has signed a bill to provide new military, economic and humanitarian aid for Ukraine worth nearly $40bn (£32bn), the White House says.

Russia's military says Mariupol's Azovstal steelworks has been "completely liberated", with the last Ukrainian defenders surrendering.

British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss says she wants to see Ukraine's neighbour Moldova "equipped to Nato standard" to help it guard against the threat of a Russian invasion.

Finland's state-owned gas operator has confirmed that Russia has switched off the supply to the country.

[Catfish]

Ukraine War: Russian forces suffer heavy losses in the Donbas region

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nx-6Y00MrFo

The russian invasion has turned the Donbas into a scrapyard, they have destroyed the smallest villages with indiscriminate bombing and shelling. In a way one could hope that Russia has to deal and pay with building all this up again.
I guess few people will want to live there after this is over.

[Dargo]

President Volodymyr Zelensky said in a televised interview on May 21 that 700,000 defenders of Ukraine are fighting all across the country, Ukrainska Pravda reported.

[mapuc]

^^ Wonder if this will change anything on the battlefield ?

Terminators are the result of Russia's quest to develop vehicles designed for fighting in tight urban spaces. That need became urgent after the first Chechen war in which massive numbers of Russian armored vehicles were wiped out by Chechen fighters

https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-deploys-terminator-ukraine/31859993.html

Markus

[Catfish]

I take it that Russia takes every perceived weakness of Ukraine as a reason to fight on, and kill, and destroy. Any hint of diplomacy or trying to put an end to the war will therefore be rejected by Putin.
I HOPE i am wrong.

I am not sure what to make of it. Russia's miltary is depleted, Ukraine will not be able to defend like this forever. Europe and NATO are much too reluctant to go fully in against Russia, they bought Putin's blackmail of a nuclear war. Bull, but they did.

Russia will want to take the entire south of Ukraine, cutting it off from the black sea, and this means taking Odessa. Russia will not be content with less, so Ukraine either accepts that or Russia has to be driven out by force, everywhere.
Also, even with an end of war now, Russia will try again in 3-5 years to occupy the rest of Ukraine.

Conclusio is still that Europe and NATO should go fully in, and drive Russia out, now.

[mapuc]

Conclusio is still that Europe and NATO should go fully in, and drive Russia out, now.

Are you prepared to pay the price it will cost.

I agree with you we should intervene and drive Russia out..But the price would be too high in my taste.

Markus

[Dargo]

^^ Wonder if this will change anything on the battlefield ?



https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-deploys-terminator-ukraine/31859993.html

Markuscould change if they get more heavy material

[Rockstar]

Original link: https://www.currenttime.tv/a/gopnik-boitsya-sily-emu-vybili-zuby-on-srazu-stanovitsya-mirnym-i-pokladistym-mihail-podolyak-o-hode-voyny-i-peregovorah-s-putinym-/31861010.html?fbclid=IwAR3vv2RIYakVX8piqMK0L1rfUeI p773HqrSp6sHIGI5Lv8TcatzbN9ne2pc

Google translate below:

"The gopnik is afraid of power. His teeth were knocked out - he immediately becomes peaceful and docile." Mikhail Podolyak - on the course of the war and negotiations with Putin

https://www-currenttime-tv.translate.goog/a/gopnik-boitsya-sily-emu-vybili-zuby-on-srazu-stanovitsya-mirnym-i-pokladistym-mihail-podolyak-o-hode-voyny-i-peregovorah-s-putinym-/31861010.html?fbclid=IwAR3vv2RIYakVX8piqMK0L1rfUeI p773HqrSp6sHIGI5Lv8TcatzbN9ne2pc&_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-US&_x_tr_pto=wapp

Mikhail Podolyak , adviser to the head of the office of the President of Ukraine , in an interview with Current Time explains why the Ukrainian authorities have not yet commented on the military from Azovstal, and also talks about the reason for the termination of peace talks with Moscow. According to him, now the best diplomat in the confrontation with Russia is a weapon:

“What other tool is there to return these people to an adequate state? The gopnik is afraid of power. So he came, started to pontificate, his teeth were knocked out. He immediately becomes peaceful and docile, immediately begins to hear, turns on the hearing aid. his teeth, his ears don't work. That's the problem of getting us weapons: we need them in order to restore the hearing of the Russian Federation," he described.

Podolyak separately emphasized that Moscow initially set the task in the war "to kill the potential of Ukraine - namely in the food, metallurgy, and chemical industries: this was a parallel goal that they set when they talked about the destruction of Ukraine as a state."

******

- Tell us what is happening at Azovstal in Mariupol, on what conditions do Ukrainian defenders surrender?

“I understand your question, but the evacuation is still ongoing. This is a rather difficult negotiation process, a rather complicated situation.

The Russian side differs, to my great regret, in that it constantly changes the terms of the negotiation process. And we made a decision: until this difficult negotiation session, this difficult negotiation evacuation, is definitely over, not to comment on what is happening in detail, and so on. Why? So that no one can put any words in our claims, which then, for obvious reasons, will cause a strange reaction from the Russian Federation.

Moreover, you can see that even the evacuation process itself caused a whole stormy propaganda reaction. Many statements come from the highest officials of the Russian Federation, from ordinary people who demand some kind of excesses, some kind of murders, and so on and so forth.

Therefore, let's do this: the operation will end, the evacuation will end in full, when everything will be in order with people, when people will receive proper assistance in accordance with all conventions, that is, when the Russian Federation nevertheless remembers that even during a war there is legal regulation that regulates relations with the military personnel of another country (I'm not even talking about civilians, but about the military personnel of another country), then, probably, we will be able to comment on something in a large volume. Today we have such an information time, and many people are very fond of collecting additional likes without having access to information: they pretend that they really know something, and thus create certain illusions. Let's stick very strictly to the key rule of the war.

- In the case of Azovstal, you managed to consolidate Ukrainian politicians and officials - practically no one says anything about this. But if we can't talk about the conditions, tell me, do you have data on how many people came out?

- We can't talk about people, we can't talk about the state they're in, except what, of course, is shown officially by the Russian side from the point of view that they provide proper assistance. We hope that this is being done in full, and this is very important.

I emphasize once again that all this is fixed in a legal context and so on. I think that everything that concerns the war in general, the details, is a matter of the near future, when everything can be told, it will be possible to discuss, especially from a legal point of view. And this is very important.

You know, I generally have a paradoxical attitude to everything, it is a little unusual, I guess. I think that it is absolutely necessary, and not in terms of the fact that I represent Ukraine. I believe that for Russia, for Russian society, it is extremely important that Russia be defeated in this war - so that all this hysteria, unthinkable propaganda is also defeated. Then Russia will probably still be able to renew itself somehow from within and, perhaps, come to some other public consensus on what rules one should live by.

Otherwise, if, for example, Russia today does not lose, at least does not receive a significant loss, then this whole conservative situation that we are seeing today, this whole hysteria, madness - it will be mothballed and after some time will break through again. It will be such an abscess.

I believe that the defeat now, the key task of defeating the Russian Federation, is the key task of the world community in terms of treating the Russian Federation. Paradoxical thought? That is, if we want to save a country like the Russian Federation, we want to save society, we want to enable this civilization to develop further, then yes, it is probably necessary that it lose, rethink itself and now exist in a different form. That is, probably, then it will be able to integrate more into modern humanistic civilization, into the humanistic community in which we, for example, Ukraine, are.

– Mikhail, the day before, when it became known that the United States Senate had voted to allocate $40 billion to help Ukraine, you wrote on your Twitter that a weapon is the best diplomat and a weapon is a translator into a language that Russia understands. And yet, at the level of diplomacy, are any negotiations currently underway with the Russian Federation? I mean not on the exchange of prisoners, this is understandable, but on some kind of peace treaty?

- You are asking the right question. But I’ll ask you a counter question: name another instrument for me when you meet a gopnik on the street who understands only force? That is, he is not intellectual, he is not ready to talk about literature, art, and so on, he boasts that he can bring anyone to his knees. What tool, besides strength, are you still ready to use? We will apply it.

Russia says: "Look, NATO is fighting against us." NATO is not fighting against them, Ukraine is fighting against them. They talk about some kind of "special operation", but at the same time they always forget that they entered foreign territory, kill foreign citizens and at the same time say that "we are liberating something." But after all, on the air it is obvious that no one supports them on any territory, they are simply hated. This entire army that entered Ukraine is not digested by all people. It is obvious.

Tell me what tool we can use when you say: "Look, guys, here is the live broadcast, here are your crimes, here is your behavior, here is your way of waging war - this is all on the table, let's discuss it. Here are the specifics "This is not fiction, we are not engaged in propaganda, we have an open country, we have allowed everyone to come and everyone can see it. Please tell us how you want us to discuss this?"

And they hung up this idiotic St. George's ribbon here and start talking back about some Nazis, Nazi battalions, biological laboratories - this whole crazy kind of hell in which they live. And what, besides strength, in relation to them in a conversation is another argument possible? That is, apart from weapons today, unfortunately, there are no arguments, it happened.

Why, in fact, Ukraine, and the President of Ukraine, Mr. Zelensky, and all of us are talking about please give us weapons. Not because weapons are an end in themselves for Ukraine, no. We were a peaceful state, we had no offensive weapons at all. Offensive weapons are cruise missiles, which, as you can see, only Russia uses. She bombs our cities. We do not bomb Russian cities, we do not have cruise missiles, we do not make Russian citizens wake up at night in some Saratov, Yaroslavl, Vladimir, Ivanovo to the sound of sirens. No, we don't, I emphasize, we don't! We do not have and did not have cruise missiles.

But the Russian Federation calmly sends dozens of missiles every night - Odessa, Lvov, Kyiv, Dnipro, Chernigov, just districts and villages - just throws cruise missiles. There are such conditional men sitting, because it is hardly possible to call people who fire remotely at peaceful cities men. So they decide: "Let's bomb a village in the Chernihiv region today," and they press a button and giggle.

What other tool is there to return these people to an adequate state? The gopnik is afraid of power. So he came, he began to show off there, his teeth were knocked out, he immediately becomes peaceful and accommodating, he immediately begins to hear, turns on his hearing aid. And until the moment he has teeth, his ears do not work. This is how it would have turned out in Russia: they have whole teeth - their ears do not work. There will be no teeth - I'm sure the ears will work. This is the problem of obtaining weapons for us, we need them in order to restore the hearing of the Russian Federation.

– Did I understand your answer to my question correctly, that negotiations with Moscow are not underway now?

– Negotiations are also a tool, a mandatory tool during a war. Of course, there is a military component, there is a diplomatic component, there is a negotiation component. But negotiations are a platform where the parties, firstly, adequately evaluate themselves, and secondly, adequately assess the course of hostilities and, in addition, the position of their country, and so on.

Today, unfortunately, Russia has returned to such an initial, not entirely clear idea of ​​​​the world and its role in the world, has not yet realized that it has been fighting against Ukraine for 85 days, and not against NATO, I emphasize again. Naturally, this prevents them from adequately perceiving the negotiation process as well.

Therefore, the negotiations are suspended until the moment when the side that will sit on the other side of the table cannot, in the end, objectively look at what they are doing, at war crimes, on the one hand, at the position of Ukraine and at how we must get out of this war.

– [Negotiations] are suspended by you? Ukrainian side?

– No, they are objectively suspended. See, it's the same with human relationships. If the parties are not interested, do not see mutual points of discussion, then they will not be interested in communicating. The same is true in the negotiation process. There is nothing to talk about, there are no intersecting lines, when the parties are ready to clearly and objectively, I emphasize, logically explain their motives. It's hard to listen all the time when they say to you: "You have Nazis there."

And you say: "Look, guys, once again, the sponsors of world Nazism is only one state - the Russian Federation. And the ideological concept that underlies today's political vertical of Russia is Nazism. This is yours." When they start telling you about some countless battalions, millions of Nazi battalions that need to be destroyed, you understand that there is no common ground. This is the obvious thing.

- The day before, the director of the UN World Food Program asked Putin to unblock Ukrainian seaports so that Ukraine could still supply agricultural products to the world market. Otherwise, he says, the world will face a huge food crisis, just starvation will begin in some countries and everything that will follow from this. In response, Deputy Foreign Minister Andrei Rudenko said that the ports could be unblocked if anti-Russian sanctions were lifted. And in parallel to this news: The Wall Street Journal writes, citing its sourcesthat the United States is considering the possibility of temporarily lifting sanctions on Belarusian potash fertilizers in exchange for the transit of Ukrainian grain through Belarus. How do you assess the prospects that the United States and the European Union will agree to lift some anti-Russian sanctions in exchange for unblocking Ukrainian ports?

- You know, this will be a very strange position, because it will be the so-called unfinished business, which will lead to further escalation and further growth of the tragedy under the name. They do not want to call it a third world war, but, in fact, it looks like this, because many countries are already involved in it indirectly, some directly.

Look, Russia is always blackmailing, it is always ready to kill people in order to get some additional opportunity for itself. But nevertheless, as soon as she gets this additional opportunity for herself. Suppose some of the sanctions were lifted from it - this will stimulate it to further escalate the conflict, not only in Ukraine. That is, if they understand that the world is really weak, the way it was before the start of the war in Ukraine. And before the start of the war in Ukraine, I will remind you, Russia constantly blackmailed the world with the fact that if you do not agree to some agreements, then we will use force. We will scare you with nuclear weapons there, we will, relatively speaking, finance some terrorist organizations like Hamas and so on and so forth, which, in fact, they did. We will take part in the Syrian conflict on the side of an understandable group, and so on. That is, Russia constantly blackmailed the world, constantly received certain bonuses for this.

That is paradoxical: the world always says that it is impossible to negotiate with terrorists. But at the same time, you always go for blackmailing Russia, and as a result, you make concessions, and Russia constantly raised the stakes.

So, is there still such a risk?

– Russia is constantly raising the stakes. Now it will be the same. If you go along with Russia by lifting part of the sanctions, for example, then in the end Russia will continue to escalate the conflict in Ukraine and continue to set the following conditions. And it can be ad infinitum. And thus the conflict in Ukraine will in any case grow as much as possible, they will force both equipment and manpower here. Sooner or later, other European countries will be involved directly in the fighting.

I don't quite understand why the world needs this? I understand the United Nations, they have always taken a rather strange view of global conflicts, all the time it was very easy to buy into blackmailing certain terrorists. But it seems to me that at this moment there will be no concessions to the Russian Federation, no one will agree to lift any sanctions.

Ukraine will insist that we must maintain a very strict triumvirate. The first is a weapon for Ukraine. The second is a full package of sanctions, including the sixth and seventh, including direct and indirect embargoes. And, finally, the third is money for Ukraine, through which we will be able to support our economy, which is really falling today.

Look what Russia is doing. Russia is not just ideologically trying to fight against Ukraine, Russia is simultaneously destroying the same export infrastructure for us: transshipment, elevators, transport system, ports, and so on. Russia is doing this on purpose. Understand that the initial goal of the war was, among other things, to strike at this infrastructure, the task was to kill the potential of Ukraine - namely in the food, metallurgical, chemical industries, in terms of export potential. This was one of the goals. A parallel goal that they set when they talked about the destruction of Ukraine as a state.

[Catfish]

Are you prepared to pay the price it will cost.
I agree with you we should intervene and drive Russia out.. But the price would be too high in my taste.
Markus
I would go and fight myself. I would also take inflation and put up with a bit of inconvenience economy-wise. F'k the money, this is not about it.
Russia is blackmailing with nuclear war. So Europe bought this bull and is anxious?
Ukraine is fighting this war for all of Europe. I say go in FULLY, boots on the ground, and only "conventional". What do you think Russia would do then?
Lose. And fast.

[mapuc]

I would go and fight myself. I would also take inflation and put up with a bit of inconvenience economy-wise. F'k the money, this is not about it.
Russia is blackmailing with nuclear war. So Europe bought this bull and is anxious?
Ukraine is fighting this war for all of Europe. I say go in FULLY, boots on the ground, and only "conventional". What do you think Russia would do then?
Lose. And fast.


I was not talking about money. Far from it

What I meant was the cost of lost life(military and civilians) the cost of lost infrastructure.

Of course if we don't do anything now we may end with what we are trying to prevent today a WWIII.

Markus

[Catfish]

[...] What I meant was the cost of lost life(military and civilians) the cost of lost infrastructure.
Of course if we don't do anything now we may end with what we are trying to prevent today a WWIII.
Markus
What do you think Denmark will lose of its infrastructure, or Germany, or France, in case European countries fight in Ukraine?
Remember, only conventionally. Russia will abstain from firing ANYTHING towards Poland, or Germany, let alone Denmark. In the second it does NATO is officially involved.
As Rockstar quoted, break their teeth. Then they will negotiate, not a second earlier.

[mapuc]

What do you think Denmark will lose of its infrastructure, or Germany, or France, in case European countries fight in Ukraine?
Remember, only conventionally. Russia will abstain from firing ANYTHING towards Poland, or Germany, let alone Denmark. In the second it does NATO is officially involved.
As Rockstar quoted, break their teeth. Then they will negotiate, not a second earlier.


People or should I say volunteers from these countries are already fighting in Ukraine a friends friend(have met him a few times) Is a Danish trained Navy Seal and he left some weeks ago Denmark to fight in Ukraine-he hopes that he can be a part of this Famous Ukrainian special forces.(My friend told this on the phone)

Edit
Been thinking-What if Catfish is right that Russia is nothing than a toothless tiger.
It would still be a risc to intervene-Not the same as saying we shouldn't do it-But are we prepared to pay the price ? I'm talking about million of Dead European civilians and Russian - Russia may have some huge fangs.
End edit

Markus

[Skybird]

I would go and fight myself. I would also take inflation and put up with a bit of inconvenience economy-wise. F'k the money, this is not about it.
Russia is blackmailing with nuclear war. So Europe bought this bull and is anxious?
Ukraine is fighting this war for all of Europe. I say go in FULLY, boots on the ground, and only "conventional". What do you think Russia would do then?
Lose. And fast.
All war is about money. A war without money is not lasting long.

I understand your feelings, I even share them, but the cold blooded mind must prevail.

[Catfish]

But Germany has the money. Europe has the money.
NATO military and communications material is compatible, the latter encrypted.
Stopping an ongoing war in Ukraine would limit the costs, in particular compared to the alternatives and the later wars with Russia inevitably coming.
Russia will not be able to sustain this war for long, let alone with european immediate and direct support to Ukraine.
Yes it will be inconvenient.
re Markus there will be dead soldiers, no doubt. But not millions.

[mapuc]

“Putin is in an absolute dead end. He cannot stop the war and he cannot win it. He cannot win for objective reasons. And to stop it, he must acknowledge that Russia is not at all the kind of strong and great state that he wanted to portray,” Gen. Budanov said.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-will-fight-until-all-russian-forces-are-expelled-military-intelligence-chief-says-11653046810

Markus

[Dargo]

Ukrainian troops say they destroyed a Russian battalion tactical group.

The group was liquidated while attempting to cross the Siversky Donets river near the village of Serebryanka in Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine’s 30th Mechanized Brigade said. The Ukrainian soldiers said they had destroyed dozens of Russian troops and several units of equipment, as well as a pontoon bridge.

[mapuc]

Ukrainian troops say they destroyed a Russian battalion tactical group.

The group was liquidated while attempting to cross the Siversky Donets river near the village of Serebryanka in Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine’s 30th Mechanized Brigade said. The Ukrainian soldiers said they had destroyed dozens of Russian troops and several units of equipment, as well as a pontoon bridge.

To me it looks more and more like the Russian is being humiliated. The question is what they are going to do when they also come to this conclusion ?

Markus

[Dargo]

Moscow. May 21. INTERFAX.RU - Russian Transport Minister Vitaly Savelyev said that there are serious problems with logistics in Russia in connection with the anti-Russian sanctions.

"Those sanctions that have been imposed on Russia today have practically ruined all logistics in our country. And we are forced to look for new logistics corridors," he told reporters on Saturday during a visit to the Astrakhan region.

Savelyev noted that there is a well-known international transport corridor "North-South" and the Caspian Sea direction is directly involved in this corridor. These are three ports - the port of "Olya", the port of "Astrakhan" and the port of "Makhachkala".

As the Minister explained, "and due to the fact that we are considering this direction, of course, it is not only ports, but also approaches to the ports, bridges and roads, we should not have bottlenecks that would not allow us to rebuild.

[Buddahaid]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-will-fight-until-all-russian-forces-are-expelled-military-intelligence-chief-says-11653046810

Markus

Apparently everybody including Putin knows that by now and no wonder he sits miles away from any potential Ivan von Stauffenberg. I still say drive Russia out and to hell with Putin.

[mapuc]

Apparently everybody including Putin knows that by now and no wonder he sits miles away from any potential Ivan von Stauffenberg. I still say drive Russia out and to hell with Putin.

Some psychology expert said some weeks ago on Danish TV that Putin live in his own imaginary world.

Markus

[Buddahaid]

Some psychology expert said some weeks ago on Danish TV that Putin live in his own imaginary world.

Markus

So what? I live in mine but I don't try to take over my neighbors yard because it has a pool.

[Eisenwurst]

https://unherd.com/2022/03/russia-is-dying-out/

A relevant article. Some quote comes to mind...."the gods move in mysterious ways".

[Buddahaid]

In other words Putin(reg trademark) is not popular at home, but home is vast.

[Gorpet]

All war is about money. A war without money is not lasting long.

I understand your feelings, I even share them, but the cold blooded mind must prevail.

That's a damn good Quote.

[Skybird]

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/05/22/europe/ukraine-russian-officer-resigns/index.html



The Ukrainian Intelligence Directorate reported (https://gur.gov.ua/content/sered-viiskovykh-rf-zrostaie-kilkist-ofitsiinykh-vidmovnykiv.html) that in several Russian units, specifically the 150th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Army of the Southern Military District, as many as 60% to 70% of soldiers were refusing to serve.
CNN cannot verify that number.

[mapuc]

^ The Russian has the ability to make understatement
The Ukrainian has the ability to exaggerate

In what they say about the war.

Markus

[Jimbuna]

The Ukrainian government says Kyiv would not agree a ceasefire deal with Moscow that involved giving away any territory.

Presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak, said making concessions would result in Moscow starting an even larger, more bloody offensive in the longer term.

Poland’s President Andrzej Duda has told the Ukrainian parliament that only Ukraine has the right to determine its own future during a visit to Kyiv.

Russian forces have continued their attacks on the eastern Donbas region following their capture of Mariupol.

They are said to have made limited advances towards Severodonetsk – where it is thought they are planning a new siege.

Russia has likely deployed 'terminator' tank support vehicles to the area as part of their offensive in the Donbas, according to the UK’s Ministry of Defence.

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u0RABlByNAE

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LOOnD5UNHS8

[Skybird]

Well.



Russia's attack on Ukraine has apparently been joined by numerous Russian right-wing extremists and neo-Nazis. This is reported by "Der Spiegel" with reference to a confidential report of the Federal Intelligence Service (BND). According to the report, the seven-page document was sent to several federal ministries last week.

According to the BND, the "Russian Imperial League" and the "Rusich" group are at least "two groups with right-wing extremist sentiments" fighting against the Ukrainian army. In addition, the Russian government uses at least one right-wing extremist "individual" for its purposes, "Spiegel" further quotes from the report. The cooperation with these groups "reduces the ostensible reason for war, the so-called 'denazification' of Ukraine, to absurdity," write the analysts of the German foreign intelligence service.

The document does not specify the number of right-wing extremist fighters. However, the BND report names groups and units.

According to the report, the "Russian Imperial Legion" (RIL), the paramilitary arm of the far-right Russian Imperial Movements, has already intervened in the fighting. The group had already fought on the Russian side in the Ukrainian Donbass in 2014 and 2015.

Just one day after the Russian attack on Ukraine on Feb. 24, RIL leader Denis Garieev had written on Telegram: "Without a doubt, we advocate the liquidation of the separatist entity Ukraine." Soon after, the RIL had decided to fight in Ukraine. According to the BND document, fighters with military experience and graduates of the organization's own training center "Partizan" in St. Petersburg were recruited for this purpose. It is unclear "whether this decision was made at the request of or in consultation with the Russian leadership," the BND report says. According to the information, Gariev's deputy died in fighting in Ukraine. Gariev himself was flown out injured, it said, and at least two other right-wingers were seriously wounded.
Swastika flag and Hitler salute at campfire

The "Rusich" group is also believed to have been involved in the fighting on Ukrainian territory since early April at the latest. In many places, it is attributed to the notorious Russian mercenary force Wagner and was also already in action in the Donbass in 2014 and 2015. According to the BND, "Rusich" was "known for particular brutality" at the time. The group had a reputation for "never taking prisoners." One of the two "Rusich" founders was considered a sadist.

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)


From Der Tagesspiegel

[Skybird]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LOOnD5UNHS8
Putin wants to create new streams of mass migration of refugees to overwhelm Western Europe, to destabilise them. For this he creates hunger in the world by destroying grain reserves.

Mass murder of the highest level, worth to be compared with the atrocities done by Stalin, the Nazis, and similiar criminals against humanity.

Half of them Putin would probably see as a personal compliment to be compared to.

[Skybird]

9 thesis on Putin's fascism, by Timothy Snyder.




https://snyder.substack.com/p/may-9-in-russia?utm_source=%2Fprofile%2F30618158-timothy-snyder&utm_medium=reader2&s=r


I remind of what i said repeatedly before over the years. I once red that Hitler in an adress to the party in February either 1944 or 45 (I always forget the year) said that he sees no principle differences between German Nationalsocialism, and Sovjet Bolshevism.

Now compare that to Snyder's despcription of Russia being fascist in itself, but being very indifferent and uncritical on calling anything foreign that is hostile as fascist.



Russia not only has no conceptual understanding of what fascism really is - it also does not want to have it, because this way it is free to comfortably and lazily call just anything it does not like as "fascist", benefitting from the emotional charging the term causes.

[Skybird]

Ans another piece by the auhtor that makes me feel confirmed when calling the Russian attack on Ukriane a genocide.

https://snyder.substack.com/p/russias-genocide-handbook?s=r


Russia has just issued a genocide handbook for its war on Ukraine. The Russian official press agency "RIA Novosti" published last Sunday an explicit program for the complete elimination of the Ukrainian nation as such. It is still available (https://ria.ru/20220403/ukraina-1781469605.html) for viewing, and has now been translated several times into English (https://medium.com/@kravchenko_mm/what-should-russia-do-with-ukraine-translation-of-a-propaganda-article-by-a-russian-journalist-a3e92e3cb64).
As I have been saying (https://snyder.substack.com/p/genocide-and-genocide?s=r) since the war began (https://www.bostonglobe.com/2022/02/24/opinion/putins-hitler-like-tricks-tactics-ukraine/), "denazification" in official Russian usage just means the destruction of the Ukrainian state and nation. A "Nazi," as the genocide manual explains, is simply a human being who self-identifies as Ukrainian. According to the handbook, the establishment of a Ukrainian state thirty years ago was the "nazification of Ukraine." Indeed "any attempt to build such a state" has to be a "Nazi" act. Ukrainians are "Nazis" because they fail to accept "the necessity that the people support Russia." Ukrainians should suffer for believing that they exist as a separate people; only this can lead to the "redemption of guilt."
And this is the official definition of the crime of genocide as the antigenocide convention holds it.



Definition

Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide (https://www.un.org/en/genocideprevention/documents/atrocity-crimes/Doc.1_Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide.pdf)

Article II
In the present Convention, genocide means any of the following acts committed with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group, as such:


Killing members of the group;
Causing serious bodily or mental harm to members of the group;
Deliberately inflicting on the group conditions of life calculated to bring about its physical destruction in whole or in part;
Imposing measures intended to prevent births within the group;
Forcibly transferring children of the group to another group


Usually one also refers to the systemtic effort of a state to prevent an ethnic groupo to practiuce clturla habtis and customs and speaking nativ elanguages that identify it as mamebers of that ethnic-cultural group. Defenders of this view argue that therefore you can commit gencoide without necessariuly massacrinbg score sof people, but you can commit a "soft genocide" by preventing the foreign culture's habits and traits to be given from generation to generation, to form identities in the young, you prevent the cultural identity form breathing and have it being deleted from the world'S public display.

Often you have a mix between both gencoide, the bloody and the soft one. Tibet is an exmaple.

Its crystal clear. This Russian war of attack is attempted and pre-announced genocide. And Putin did not and does not hide it, he explicitly said what the intention is, and the intention he described matches the criteria of genocide both hard and soft. And he sticks to what he said and carries it out in practice.

The west does not want to recognise it as such, since recognition of genocide by the convetion implies mandatory legal obligation by the recognising state to confront those committing the genocide, and to fundamentally come to the recue and help of the victims. This is no free choice of states, but it is mandatory by the convention. And this conflict is something that many want to not engage in. Thats why they say the genocide is no genocide, but imply it were something more harmless and kinder, nicier.


Garry Kasparov recently said something that sums it up nicely. He said something like "Russians currently are intoxicated. The cure to that poisoning is a sounding military defeat." That is what all out goalo must be. Not a seize fire, but a soundign defeat. Biden understands this. Johnson seems to understand this. The Eastern Europeans understand this.
Macronman and Bubble-Olaf obviously do not. They do what they can to prevent a Russian defeat.

[Catfish]

^ some arguments.. yes.

The denomination fascist or nazi have become arbitrary, to be used for anything people do not like or what "violates" someone's opinion. And to blame anyone, for anything imagined, to make some impression on the listening masses. Double rethink at its finest.



Article by a former chinese ambassador about Russia losing the war

"Moscow ’s position in the Moscow-Ukraine war has became increasingly passive and unfavorable. Its coming defeat is already clear.

[edit: i whish it was so clear, it is not imho – but interesting to read this from a chinese point of view. China and Russia did a lot of military exercises together, China also cherishes the russian combat experience, something China did not hav since fighting against Vietnam in 1979.
And maybe it is directly addressed at Putin..]

The main reasons why Moscow is now heading towards defeat are:

"Moscow has been declining ever since the collapse of the Soviet Union, a decline that is first of all a continuation of the pre-dissolution Soviet Union.

It is also related to the failures of the internal and external policies of the Moscow ruling clique. This process has been exacerbated by Western economic sanctions which have damaged sectors of the Moscow economy. The so-called revival or revitalization of Moscow under Putin’s leadership is false; it simply does not exist.

Russia’s decline is evident in its economic, military, technological, political, and social spheres, and has had a serious negative impact on the Moscow military and its war effort.

The failure of the Moscow Blitzkrieg and the failure to achieve a quick victory signaled the beginning of the Moscow defeat. The Moscow military’s economic and financial strength, which are not commensurate with its status as a so-called military superpower, could not support a high-tech war costing hundreds of millions of dollars a day. The Moscow army’s poverty-driven defeat was evident everywhere on the battlefield. Every day that the war is delayed is a heavy burden for Moscow.

Moscow military and economic advantages over Ukraine have been offset by the resilience of Ukraine and the huge, sustained and effective aid provided to Ukraine. The generational differences between Moscow and the U.S. and other NATO countries in the areas of weapons and technology, military concepts, and modes of warfare make the advantages and disadvantages of both sides even more pronounced.

Modern wars are necessarily hybrid wars, covering military, economic, political, diplomatic, public opinion, propaganda, intelligence, and information. Moscow is not only in a passive position on the battlefield, but has lost in other areas. This means that it is only a matter of time before Moscow is finally. It is only a matter of time before Moscow is finally defeated.

Moscow can no longer decide when and how the war will end. Moscow is trying to end the war as soon as possible so it can hold on to what it has gained. This has failed. In this sense, Moscow has lost its strategic leadership and initiative."

https://gaodawei.wordpress.com/2022/05/ ... relations/ (https://gaodawei.wordpress.com/2022/05/10/fmr-prc-amb-to-ukraine-on-russias-impending-defeat-and-international-relations/)

[mapuc]

So you are one of these millions who believe in West propaganda war

It happens I copy some of your text(and translate it) together with the link you have posted and paste it on a friends wall.

Sometimes my comment are ignored, but it happens I get answers like
So you are one of these millions....

Markus

[mapuc]

I do not have the link I only know it have been posted on Linkedin by a Russian named Boris Bondarev

Russian UN summit withdraws in protest and shame Boris Bondarev, Russia's ambassador to the UN Geneva office, withdraws in protest of the war in Ukraine and reaches out to the Kremlin.

Bondarev writes in a farewell letter published on Linkedin, among other things, that the attack on Ukraine is also a serious crime against the Russian people.

- I have never been so ashamed of my country as since February 24, he writes with reference to the date when the war started.

Edit
Got the link to the story

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-putin-switzerland-government-and-politics-2019b1448217f57e68d2b18b6727bf99

End edit

Markus

[Skybird]

And even if Russia succeeds in its what German media call "boa constrictor tactic" in Donbass, and encircles those two cities and gets all of the Donbass - KEEPING it afterwards once the inevitable Ukrainian counterattck starts again will cause big problems for Russia.


But some European nations do not want Ukraine to counterattack, it seems, namely France and Germany.



That Macronman focusse o n establishing a seize fire any any cost and even demanded the Ukraine to accept losses of territory for that, of course is totally counterproductive. That Bubble-Olaf assists him in that and obviously has no interest in seeing the Ukraine winning, does not even dare to take that word "winning" in his mouth and just talks of that the Ukraine should continue to exist, speaks volumes. Very, very underhanded and split-tongued double-talk by the German "chancellor". He has Angst, and thast puts sprinkles in Putin's and Lavrov's eyes. . He stepped willingly into the Russians' propaganda trap to not provoke them and not to escalate things by having Russia suffering a form of defeat that they would label as that. Obviously Bubble-Olag has no clue what the term (Western) "deterrance" means. Plus Bubble-Olaf does not want to mess with the russophile lefts in his own party, and the group of pacifists of the Greens who want to use those 100 billion for the Bundeswehr for climate policies and developmnent aid, labelling that "security-relevant defence policy". And he does not want to think twice about the timetable and fince numbers for the coalition'S own pet, the "energy turnaround". Olaf the weasel, like always and always. Nuff said.



France and Germany do not really help the Ukrainians' cause. At least they help the Russian cause as much.

[mapuc]

^ As we write together weapons and ammo is being send from NATO to Ukraine. But the day Russia has fulfilled their task taking Luhansk and Donbas, will there still be send weapon to Ukraine when this happens ?

Because now the war is, so to say over for the Russian part.

Markus

[Skybird]

The war is not over, but will simmer on. And the economically relevant destruction done to the Ukraine could still break its neck afterwards. Since the west will give much of the money, but has no money, inflation will spook on.
In a way there is no winner in all this. Not Russia. Not the Ukraine. Not Europe.
Well, maybe China, but they seem to have their own problems.

In the long term, however, Russia looks like the biggest looser.

[Jimbuna]

A Russian diplomat to the United Nations quits over the war in Ukraine, calling it "bloody, witless and absolutely needless"

Boris Bondarev says he has never "been so ashamed of my country" following the invasion.

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky says the world cannot be ruled by "brute force", in an address at the World Economic Forum.

Zelensky calls for maximum sanctions against Russia, including an oil embargo.

A court in Ukraine jails a Russian tank commander for life for killing a civilian at the first war crimes trial of the war.

Russia is stepping up efforts to capture the eastern city of Severodonetsk, and is said to be using "scorched earth" tactics.

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mbwls1iJLWw

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xaO6XJp1cyc

[Dargo]

Biden Says U.S. Military Would Defend Taiwan if China Invaded https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/23/world/asia/biden-taiwan-china.html

China will be mad about this, they gone blame putin :)

[Dargo]

Twenty countries have announced a new support package of military equipment for Ukraine. Denmark, for example, is supplying a Harpoon missile system including ammunition, announced U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin.

Such radar-guided missiles can be used against warships. Austin did not come up with further details about which other weapons are being sent. Greece, Norway and Poland are also among the group of countries supplying new assets to Ukraine.

[Skybird]

Twenty countries have announced a new support package of military equipment for Ukraine. Denmark, for example, is supplying a Harpoon missile system including ammunition, announced U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin.

Such radar-guided missiles can be used against warships. Austin did not come up with further details about which other weapons are being sent. Greece, Norway and Poland are also among the group of countries supplying new assets to Ukraine.
Meanwhile the German government claims all of a sudden that there is a NATO-wide agreement in place to not deliver heavy weapons and armour of Western construction. Critics are up in arms, since this claim makes no sense and I think it is a lie by team Scholz.

Does this NATO agreement mean that they only say they mull the delivery of PZH2000 - but will not deleiver it when time has come? Does it mean the US is in violation of such a NATO agreement since it already has delivered armoured APCs - I think it was a three digit number of them? Why has the German chaos troop at the top of he state not communicated earlier that such an agreement is in place, since it is taking heavy fire from other nations and from huge parts of the German public? Why is no other nation confirming the existence of such an agreement, and many nations being angry at the German laymen show?

And how stupid will said laymen theatre troop look if it should get clarified that they fed a lie to the public over this claimed NATO agreement?

It makes me sick to watch the German misgovernment in action. We must not allow it to complete its term, it simply does way too much damage on the Ukrainbe policy, on other policy fields as well. And the biggest problem sits at the big desk in the chancellor's office.

[Jimbuna]

Meanwhile the German government claims all of a sudden that there is a NATO-wide agreement in place to not deliver heavy weapons and armour of Western construction. Critics are up in arms, since this claim makes no sense and I think it is a lie by team Scholz.

Does this NATO agreement mean that they only say they mull the delivery of PZH2000 - but will not deleiver it when time has come? Does it mean the US is in violation of such a NATO agreement since it already has delivered armoured APCs - I think it was a three digit number of them? Why has the German chaos troop at the top of he state not communicated earlier that such an agreement is in place, since it is taking heavy fire from other nations and from huge parts of the German public? Why is no other nation confirming the existence of such an agreement, and many nations being angry at the German laymen show?

And how stupid will said laymen theatre troop look if it should get clarified that they fed a lie to the public over this claimed NATO agreement?

It makes me sick to watch the German misgovernment in action. We must not allow it to complete its term, it simply does way too much damage on the Ukrainbe policy, on other policy fields as well. And the biggest problem sits at the big desk in the chancellor's office.

Tis a pity Germany can't be suspended from NATO thereby forcing them to defend themselves.

They are doing nothing more than undermining the wests efforts of support for Ukraine.

[Dargo]

Russia's new flagship warship Admiral Makarov is leaving Sevastopol for Odesa on a:"Special Operation" to determine how well it interacts with the ocean floor.

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Cg_WPUJdlE

[Skybird]

Tis a pity Germany can't be suspended from NATO thereby forcing them to defend themselves.

They are doing nothing more than undermining the wests efforts of support for Ukraine.
I agree on both.

[Catfish]

"WASHINGTON, May 23 (Reuters) - U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said that some 20 countries had announced new security assistance packages for Ukraine during a virtual meeting with allies on Monday that was aimed at coordinating arms for Kyiv.

The countries that announced new packages included Italy, Denmark, Greece, Norway and Poland, Austin told reporters following a meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group. Denmark would provide a harpoon launcher and missiles to defend Ukraine's coast.
"Everyone here understands the stakes of this war," Austin said."

To defend Ukraine's coast.. this coast is not very long aymore. And too late for Odessa i fear.
Russia could attack from three sides, Transnistria, from the east and from the south by naval support.
Russia's new flagship warship Admiral Makarov is leaving Sevastopol for Odesa on a:"Special Operation" to determine how well it interacts with the ocean floor.
Will not help Ukraine. If Odessa is being captured Russia has sealed Ukraine's former coast completely from access to the sea.

[Skybird]

Odessa is a tough nut to crack. More tzunnels and subterranean bzunkers than Kyiv, I read. Beche smind. Amphibious battle landing? Only if the Russians have suicide desires. Rivers also help to mount obstacles. The main city east of Odessa also is not captured. The Russians must get that oen first before gpoing after Odessa.

With every day passiong, it becomes more dsifficult for Rusai to keep the momentum in Donbass and Luhansk - and move closer toweards goiung onto the defence and trying to keep what thy conquered. The Ukrainians will counterattack. And in the occupied territories, partisans will appear. Already have.

New modern weapons for Ukrainians coming in. Odessa may get a serious pounding from air and artillery and missiles. Right now I cannot see Russia conquering it.

Those Harpoons get fired from VLS tubes, ships, aircraft, but not from land platforms so far (AFAIK). Anyone knowing what is in the plan for them? With US satellite intel, the Ukrainians could cover the whole Black Sea west of Crimea.

Stupid Russian Kreml fascists. Odessaeans once were extremely pro-Russian, at least as much as Crimea. No more.

[Catfish]

Sweden's contributions make it a welcomed member in the club

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ftObI-rx6P0

[mapuc]

^ The American could learn a lot from how the Swedes load a JAS 39 Gripen.

In USA it takes 6 hours to reload and refuel, while it take 20-30 Min. in Sweden.

Back to the war in Ukraine.

ROE(Rule Of Engagement) is an honour codex every soldier-Real soldier follow-Those who have commit war crime is not real soldier

This was what I told a female friend on FB.

Markus

[Platapus]

Has the story about Putin's assassination attempt 2 months ago been confirmed?


The news stories seem to be just copies of each other.

[Onkel Neal]

Don't know. Hopefully someone in the Kremlin will take him out.

Man, I watched this video, was furious. Can you imagine that is your house? And damned tanks ripping up the yard, smashing the fences, crashing into your house. People work hard and long to have a nice place to live and Nazi Russia comes along to wrecks everything. omg I would be so pissed.

https://youtu.be/R6LQ-9pxfz4?t=15

[Jeff-Groves]

Wonder if home owners insurance covers Russain Invasion damages?
Or would they claim it as an act of God?
:hmmm:

[August]

Wonder if home owners insurance covers Russain Invasion damages?
Or would they claim it as an act of God?
:hmmm:

You must not have yours handy.

My homeowners policy specifically excludes:

War, undeclared war, insurrection, civil war, rebellion or revolution. That also includes warlike acts by a military force or by military personnel, or the destruction, seizure or use for a military purpose.

It also says that "discharge of a nuclear weapon will be deemed a warlike act even if accidental". :)

[Skybird]

Kissinger has fallen victim to high age, too (he is 98). He said in Davos that the West should do nothing that helps a Russian defeat, and that the Ukraine should trade land for "peace" :arrgh!: and should take the initiative on starting negotiations :haha:. He obviously does not read newspapers and does not watch TV, else he could have known it better.



Old man, your bright times are really over. One should know when its time to stay behind the curtain and avoiding the stage. What business has a 98 year old at the economy mf orum in Davos...? Polishing his ego?



This proves that even bright people still are a product of the timeframe that brought them up, and cannot escape this framework even when the contexts are no longer valid. His advise bases on views from the past that Putin has bombed into oblivion already.

[ET2SN]

Don't know. Hopefully someone in Houston will take them out.

Man, I watched this video, was furious. Can you imagine that is your house? And damned feral hogs ripping up the yard, smashing the fences, crashing into your house. People work hard and long to have a nice place to live and Nature comes along to wreck everything. omg I would be so pissed.



Sorry, couldn't resist..

:Kaleun_Cheers::Kaleun_Smile:

[mapuc]

You must not have yours handy.

My homeowners policy specifically excludes:

War, undeclared war, insurrection, civil war, rebellion or revolution. That also includes warlike acts by a military force or by military personnel, or the destruction, seizure or use for a military purpose.

It also says that "discharge of a nuclear weapon will be deemed a warlike act even if accidental". :)

In Denmark and Sweden those terms can be found under the force majeure section

Markus

[tmccarthy]

Ukraine Russia war UPDATE - Col. Douglas Macgregor 25 May 2022

https://youtu.be/Fa7puJrsJC0

[mapuc]

Here people are using common sense when they post a comment.

On FB common sense is shining with its absent

Long live conspiracies

Markus

[Dargo]

The war in Ukraine entered its fourth month on Tuesday. The Ukrainian and Russian armies are fighting each other to the fullest, but neither seems able to decide the battle quickly. Three military scenarios outline how the war could end.

Translation from article in the volkskrant https://www.volkskrant.nl/nieuws-achtergrond/na-drie-maanden-oorlog-in-oekraine-drie-scenario-s-voor-het-aflopen-van-de-strijd~b73059e8/

Option 1: The Russians pull the longest straw after a tough fight

'Ukraine-light', after three months of heavy fighting, now seems to be the most viable option for Moscow: occupation of the Donbas and the strip of land to the east and south up to Crimea. With the capture of the Donbas, where fighting has been going on for six weeks, Russian President Vladimir Putin can still save face.

The Russian leader can then boast that the Russian-speaking populations of Luhansk and Donetsk have been "liberated," that the "Nazis" in Mariupol have been defeated, and that the Russian dream of a land link to Crimea has finally been fulfilled.

Finally, in this scenario, the Russian army settles the 'Battle of the Donbas' with supremacy and firepower. The 106 combat units Putin has sent to Ukraine, out of more than 140 at Russia's disposal, still prove too much for the estimated 40 thousand Ukrainian soldiers in the Donbas. The Russians manage to complete the encirclement of the Ukrainian army, which has been difficult for weeks.

With the drowsy pounding of the opponent by the Giatsint S howitzers, the Russians manage to break through the Ukrainian lines at weak spots along the 500-kilometer-long line of control in the Donbas. As the Ukrainian units can no longer be supplied by the Russian encirclement and cities like Severodonetsk are pulverized as much as Mariupol, the situation becomes untenable.

Ukrainian soldiers must watch as Western weapons, so crucial in the first months of the war, can no longer reach the Donbas. How soon the Russians can settle the battle depends on the military risks Moscow is willing to take in this final phase of the war.

In particular, Ukraine must fear a key asset that Russia has so far failed to deploy: the massive deployment of air power to support the offensive of mechanized units on the ground. What will be the reaction of Kyiv and the West if Putin declares the battle ended, proclaims that the mission has succeeded, and shows readiness to take a seat at the negotiating table? His commitment: to preserve all the conquered territory.

2. Ukraine does the unthinkable: it defeats the nuclear power army

How long does it take for an invasion force that has lost about fifteen thousand soldiers in just ninety days to fall through? That lost an entire fighting unit while crossing a river. Which had to leave the Kyiv region with its tail between its legs, was swept away at Kharkiv, and in the Donbas is unable to force a breakthrough.

U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin ran out of words Monday to praise the Ukrainian military. 'Ukraine has been fighting for three months with guts and tactical ingenuity,' Austin said. 'In this new phase, Ukraine is still fighting just as hard, and just as well.' Kyiv, emboldened by Western leaders who shout that Ukraine may well win the war, is holding its ground in the Donbas in this option.

Using the West's new heavy weapons, especially howitzers, the Russian army is dealt heavy blows. Bolstered by mounting Russian losses and the successful counteroffensive at Kharkiv, the Ukrainians even counterattack. They face a stagnant Russian army plagued by low morale, logistical problems, and poor leadership.

The army chief in Moscow, to Putin's horror, is no longer able to stem the tide and must watch as Russian units are pushed further and further back into the Donbas. The Kremlin, especially with the rising death toll, is coming under increasing pressure to negotiate. But Ukraine, buoyed by its gains in territory, is not hesitating.

Before the invasion, it was always thought that time was in the Russians' favor. It was only a matter of time before the Ukrainian army, because of Russian supremacy, would collapse. It is now reversed: the longer the war lasts, the more likely the invasion force will be eroded by unprecedented losses. 'Ukraine must win this war,' EU boss Ursula von der Leyen called out on Tuesday. 'Putin's aggression must be a strategic failure.'

Option 3: Stalemate

The war has now entered a phase reminiscent of a boxing match between two equal opponents: they beat each other to a pulp, but no one wins. What was feared for a long time is now coming true in the Donbas. The "P-word," of stalemate, is widely used by military experts these days. After all, the huge tank battle that was foreseen has failed to materialize. The Russian army has been trying for weeks to advance from three sides to encircle the Ukrainians, but they are encountering fierce resistance.

When the Russians gain some ground, they have to give it up again soon after. Here and there they achieve some success, but thanks to the weapons of the West, Ukraine cannot be overrun. Kyiv, for its part, does not have the manpower or enough heavy weapons, such as tanks and aircraft, to throw the Russians out of the Donbas and south.

British Deputy Defense Minister James Heappey recently warned that the war may well last at least a year. 'I don't see either side achieving anything very quickly,' Heappey said. The question is whether the international community will allow this bloodletting to continue. The pressure on Kyiv and Moscow to agree to a ceasefire and negotiations will only increase sharply.

[mapuc]

^ The author forgot the take one important thing into account.

Nuclear weapon-So far Russia has said that only conventional weapon will be used, but we do not know what kind of response Putin will make when he understand he has been humiliated in Ukraine.

Markus

[Dargo]

Don't know. Hopefully someone in the Kremlin will take him out.

Man, I watched this video, was furious. Can you imagine that is your house? And damned tanks ripping up the yard, smashing the fences, crashing into your house. People work hard and long to have a nice place to live and Nazi Russia comes along to wrecks everything. omg I would be so pissed.

https://youtu.be/R6LQ-9pxfz4?t=15Problem with a beheading or coup d'état is that Russia not has the system for this like in the USSR where they could replace leaders within two days. Killing Putin would bring civil war and with all those nuclear warheads it is dangerous you never know which faction get them.

[Dargo]

^ The author forgot the take one important thing into account.

Nuclear weapon-So far Russia has said that only conventional weapon will be used, but we do not know what kind of response Putin will make when he understand he has been humiliated in Ukraine.

MarkusBecause author knows that there will not be any use of nuclear weapons.

[Dargo]

Russia is running out of tanks. That's the inescapable conclusion from reports that it's transporting some of its reported 2,500 stored T-62s to support its war in Ukraine. The T-62 is a very old tank indeed. Designed in the late 1950s to compete with the UK Chieftain and US M60, some examples in Russian storage bases are likely to be approaching 60 years old. Production ceased in 1975 after which it was largely relegated to reserve service. It's unlikely that Russia is reactivating its very oldest T-62s. It's more likely that the tanks being transported to Ukraine are T-62Ms, modernized in 1983 with protection and mobility improvements and a new fire control system. T-62s were heavily used in Afghanistan in the 1980s and Chechnya in the 1990s, suffering heavy losses - according to US sources, nearly 325 T-62s were lost in the Soviet-Afghan war.

Russia last used T-62s in combat in 2008 during the brief war in Georgia. Russia renovated an estimated 60-120 T-62s to participate in the 2018 Vostok military exercise held in Siberia and the Russian Far East. Some of these T-62s were likely subsequently shipped to Syria to replace the Syrian Army's substantial war losses. Several thousand more T-62s are still in use around the world. 900 were reportedly designated in Russia as a mobilization reserve. The Ukrainians haven't specified how many Russian T-62s are being reactivated. Many stored units are likely in a very poor condition.

In particular, it's very unlikely that stored T-62s have modern optics or fire control systems. Russia may have cannibalized unserviceable examples of more modern stored tanks such as T-72s or T-80s to retrofit their systems onto the T-62s it's reactivating. Russia certainly wouldn't be doing this if it wasn't losing huge numbers of T72s/80s/90s. Ukraine claims that Russia has lost over 1,200 tanks. A plot of claimed losses shows how unsustainable this is - as many claimed lost in 1 month as in the entire Soviet-Afghan war. T-62s are inferior in every way to more modern Russian/Soviet tanks. They have a smaller gun (115 mm vs 125 mm), thinner armor, no autoloader, obsolete fire control systems and radios, no night combat capabilities, lower speeds and a slower rate of fire.

The T-62 also presents significant logistical difficulties. The T-72, T-80 and T-90 all have a shared heritage with common parts and ammunition and a high degree of interoperability. The T-62 has a completely different lineage, descending from the venerable T-55. This means that Russia will find it far harder to maintain, repair and resupply T-62s in the field. The tanks will need their own supply chain of ammunition and parts, completely separate from that of the T-72/80/90. With logistics under strain, this will be a challenge. In the anti-tank missile-saturated environment of Ukraine, where modern T-90s have proven vulnerable, T-62s are likely to be death traps for their crews. They are unlikely to resist even old anti-tank missiles and have horribly exposed ammunition stowage within the hull.

It's been speculated that Russia may seek to replace its battalion tactical group (BTG) armor losses by padding them out with reactivated T-62s. I don't think this sort of frontline use is likely, due to the tanks' vulnerabilities. They didn't perform well in Syria. Instead, Ukraine's General Staff say that the T-72s are to be used to equip reserve battalion tactical groups. I suspect they may be used in rear areas to reinforce checkpoints and suppress resistance - perhaps also to provide insurance against Ukrainian breakthroughs. Even old tanks can still be formidable in such support roles. As old as the T-62 is, Russia may still nonetheless find it a useful asset in this war, albeit in a tightly limited capacity well away from Ukraine's arsenal of Javelins, NLAWs and Stugnas. With Russia abolish maximum age when signing up for the army oldies could easily use them. :D

[Dargo]

Adult content and not 'family friendly'

Jimbuna

[Catfish]

9th russian General has been killed during Russia's invasion of Ukraine, shot down over Luhansk.

"Major General Kanamat Botashev has become the highest-ranking Russian pilot to be killed in the skies over Ukraine, the BBC’s Russian service reported Tuesday.

The 63-year-old retired general had been flying a Su-25 fighter jet over the Luhansk region on Sunday when the aircraft was targeted by a Stinger shoulder-fired missile system, the BBC reported, citing three of Botashev’s former subordinates who spoke on condition of anonymity.

The pilot did not have time to eject from his aircraft and died.

According to the BBC’s sources, the Su-25 had been on a mission to strike at Ukrainian positions around the town of Popasna, which was recently captured by Russian forces."

edit: it says he was the 13th general killed, in the article?

https://www.thedailybeast.com/another-russian-general-retired-air-force-major-general-banamat-botashev-reported-dead-in-ukraine

[Dargo]

9th russian General has been killed during Russia's invasion of Ukraine, shot down over Luhansk.

"Major General Kanamat Botashev has become the highest-ranking Russian pilot to be killed in the skies over Ukraine, the BBC’s Russian service reported Tuesday.

The 63-year-old retired general had been flying a Su-25 fighter jet over the Luhansk region on Sunday when the aircraft was targeted by a Stinger shoulder-fired missile system, the BBC reported, citing three of Botashev’s former subordinates who spoke on condition of anonymity.

The pilot did not have time to eject from his aircraft and died.

According to the BBC’s sources, the Su-25 had been on a mission to strike at Ukrainian positions around the town of Popasna, which was recently captured by Russian forces."

edit: it says he was the 13th general killed, in the article?

https://www.thedailybeast.com/another-russian-general-retired-air-force-major-general-banamat-botashev-reported-dead-in-ukraineCorrect now 13 generals and 40 colonels are dead.

[Dargo]

https://www.kyivpost.com/article/opinion/op-ed/what-is-really-going-on-in-the-kremlin.html

What Is Really Going on in the Kremlin?

Something is seriously wrong in Moscow. The question is not whether Russia is in crisis, but how severe the crisis is and whether it is enough to unsettle President Vladimir Putin. Based on current evidence, I would be surprised if he can rule Russia until the end of this year.

Global media are lost when it comes to reports on what is going on in the Kremlin because there is a lack of both official information and informal contact with Russian decision makers. They therefore either report little or nothing. Meanwhile, tabloids such as the New York Post, Daily Mirror and Daily Mail are having a heyday, bringing their readers all the exciting rumors and analysis that the mainstream media should also be able to offer.

Yet, for an old Kremlinologist, the current sources offer a gold mine. The situation reminds me of the old Soviet days when leftwing Western Sovietologists claimed that we must not listen to dissidents and refugees because they were biased but had to stick to official information. Well, that generation of Sovietologists went out of business with the end of the USSR.

Then as now, it’s important to look closer and pay attention to the emerging signals.

The first observation is that the Kremlin must be starting to panic, having suddenly imposed a Stalinist extreme censorship on truth.

The second is that Putin’s war in Ukraine is an outstanding failure for which he is guilty in every regard. His aim – the whole of Ukraine – was far too grand and arrogant, while his resources – only 200,000 soldiers –far too meagre.

Then, he decided to command the war himself, just like Tsar Nicholas II and Adolf Hitler, demonstrating his ignorance of military matters. When things went bad, he centralized his power further, aggravating existing mistakes.

The destruction of the Russian military is evidence of Putin’s rule of authoritarian kleptocracy. Since everyone from the top down has followed his legacy of maximum corruption, the Russian military has been stolen empty by everybody from Putin, to Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, to caterer Yevgeny Prigozhin to Rostec CEO Sergei Chemezov and down the line.

Not only does Putin not understand much to begin with, but he has isolated himself with two nutcases – Yuri Kovalchuk, his corrupt crony from St. Petersburg, and Nikolai Patrushev, his extreme nationalist national security advisor. Few advisors would be worse.

Foolishly, Putin did not understand that the West was serious when it threatened him with severe sanctions if he attacked Ukraine. He carried on regardless, and the West followed through with a tidal wave of devastating sanctions on Russia. The soft consensus expects a GDP fall of only 10%. My guess is 20%.

However incompetent the Russian military may be, deep down they understand that Putin embarked on a conquest of madness. A vocal military opposition member reacts by calling for full mobilization, recognizing that 200,000 soldiers was not enough and that 800,000 were needed. Others noted that the war as such was simply unrealistic.

Putin’s aides who previously seemed moderate, such as former President Dmitri Medvedev and former Prime Minister Sergei Kirienko, have suddenly radicalized and joined the party of war, seeing it as the way to Putin’s heart. Kirienko has successfully replaced Putin’s former Ukraine officials Vladislav Surkov and later Deputy Prime Minister Dmitri Kozak (who have disappeared from public eye) in taking responsibility for the Russian-occupied territories in Ukraine.

Following long periods of public silence, Defense Minister Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff General Valeriy Gerasimov are still in place but have clearly lost official prominence and presumably Putin approval.

There are many reports of the sacking of top military commanders, while the Ukrainians claim to have killed no less than 13 Russian generals and 40 colonels. The Kremlin has sacked at least two top military commanders: Vice Admiral Igor Osipov as the chief of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet after the sinking of its flagship the Moskva, along with Lieutenant General Serhiy Kisel, commander of the elite 1st Guards Tank Army, for failing to capture Kharkiv.

One of the most mysterious and odious parts of this story is that at least eight top Russian businessmen in the Gazprom, Gazprombank and Novatek sphere have committed suicide after first having stabbed their families to death. These look like obvious FSB murders, rumored to be based on Putin’s complaints about FSB leaks to the U.S.

We know that Putin is afraid of meeting his closest collaborators in person, yet is seemingly content meeting air hostesses. This cannot be about Covid-19, but about Putin’s fear of being murdered by his closest associates.

To these many facts, we may add strong rumors. The most prominent are claims that Putin is suffering from blood cancer, is interacting daily with doctors and is about to undergo a major operation. Some publications even cite Parkinson’s and dementia. Meanwhile, even madder Patrushev is supposed to be in command, while legally it should be Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin.

The excellent investigative journalists Andrei Soldatov and Irina Borogan have reported major divisions between the militant military and the cautious FSB foreign service, whose head, General Colonel Sergei Beseda, is reported to have been arrested.

It would be very surprising if Putin survives the biggest Russian military loss since 1905, dragging the Russian economy back to 1991 and dividing the Russian security forces as never before.

[Dargo]

Some 82% of Ukrainians believe that Ukraine should not give away any territory as part of a peace deal with Russia, according to a new survey by one of the country's top pollsters.

The huge majority said they did not support territorial concessions, even if it prolonged the war and increased the threat to Ukraine's independence, according to the poll conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology.

Just 10% of the 2,000 people surveyed found it acceptable for Ukraine to concede territory to achieve peace, while 8% were undecided.

According to the poll, 77% of Ukrainians living in Russian-occupied territory opposed any land concessions.

The Ukrainian government has consistently said it will cede no territory to Moscow. https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-61546571

[Dargo]

Hungary declares a state of emergency due to war in Ukraine. Pro-Kremlin Prime Minister Viktor Orbán said in a video message that the war posed a threat to Hungary's security, the financial sector and energy supplies. The state of emergency will take effect at midnight and will give Budapest “room to maneuver and the ability to react immediately.”

Orbán can now continue to govern with almost unlimited power. He has the power to approve measures by decree without parliamentary oversight. With the new state of emergency, the government can "react immediately and protect Hungary and Hungarian families in all possible ways," Orbán said.

"The government has once again changed the rules of the game to suit its own needs," writes Emese Pásztor of the Hungarian Union for Civil Liberties. "It will become the new normal, which threatens the fundamental rights of all of us."

[mapuc]

There will be setbacks and there will be many of them, but in the end Russia will win this war. One of my beloved friend is convince Russia will win the war.

I said I hope not-Cause Europe could most likely be next.

Markus

[Dargo]

There will be setbacks and there will be many of them, but in the end Russia will win this war. One of my beloved friend is convince Russia will win the war.

I said I hope not-Cause Europe could most likely be next.

MarkusRussia cannot win this war it is not only the battlefield that determine a win in the long run it falls back to 1991 all gains are lost

[Dargo]

Poland has sent a “very large number” of tanks to Ukraine, the Polish President Andrzej Duda says.

During the World Economic Forum in Davos, Duda said the transfer had reduced Poland’s defence capabilities.

"We are counting on the support of the community, which is Nato, and we are counting on the support of the USA and also Germany,” he said.

In April, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki admitted for the first time that Poland had sent tanks to Ukraine.

No details have been released, but media reports suggest they have been supplying Soviet-era T-72 tanks.

President Duda said the Polish army was now using a lot of German Leopard 2 tanks.

"If we were supported by our German allies with a batch of tanks that would replace the ones we gave to Ukraine, we would be very grateful. We had such a promise, we hear that Germany is not willing to fulfil this promise, that’s a big disappointment for us," he said. https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-61546571

[Jimbuna]

Russia is trying to encircle the twin cities of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk in the Donbas region.

The cities sit either side of the Siversky Donets river and have been attacked for weeks.

Overall, the Russian invasion is in the 'most active' phase, Ukraine's defence ministry says.

Two Russian officials suggest the invasion will not end soon, with one saying there is no 'deadline'

Meanwhile, 200 bodies have been found in rubble in Mariupol, an adviser to the mayor says.

Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban declares state of emergency, saying 'the world is on the brink of economic crisis'

And the underground railway in Kharkiv reopens, after being used as a bomb shelter since the invasion began.

[Jimbuna]

Poland has sent a “very large number” of tanks to Ukraine, the Polish President Andrzej Duda says.

During the World Economic Forum in Davos, Duda said the transfer had reduced Poland’s defence capabilities.

"We are counting on the support of the community, which is Nato, and we are counting on the support of the USA and also Germany,” he said.

In April, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki admitted for the first time that Poland had sent tanks to Ukraine.

No details have been released, but media reports suggest they have been supplying Soviet-era T-72 tanks.

President Duda said the Polish army was now using a lot of German Leopard 2 tanks.

"If we were supported by our German allies with a batch of tanks that would replace the ones we gave to Ukraine, we would be very grateful. We had such a promise, we hear that Germany is not willing to fulfil this promise, that’s a big disappointment for us," he said.

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7fhjoyMgqUg

[Skybird]

The 63-year-old retired general had been flying a Su-25 fighter jet
Oh those Russians - the older they get, the crazier they become... A 63 year old flew a Frogfoot on a bombing mission himself...?

[Dargo]

Oh those Russians - the older they get, the crazier they become... A 63 year old flew a Frogfoot on a bombing mission himself...?Shows how the Russian army is in a desperate state

[Skybird]

Poland has sent a “very large number” of tanks to Ukraine, the Polish President Andrzej Duda says.

During the World Economic Forum in Davos, Duda said the transfer had reduced Poland’s defence capabilities.

"We are counting on the support of the community, which is Nato, and we are counting on the support of the USA and also Germany,” he said.

In April, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki admitted for the first time that Poland had sent tanks to Ukraine.

No details have been released, but media reports suggest they have been supplying Soviet-era T-72 tanks.

President Duda said the Polish army was now using a lot of German Leopard 2 tanks.

"If we were supported by our German allies with a batch of tanks that would replace the ones we gave to Ukraine, we would be very grateful. We had such a promise, we hear that Germany is not willing to fulfil this promise, that’s a big disappointment for us," he said.
That seems to be just half of the truth, I meanwhile learned from severla media reports some days ago. The Germans say they had offered the Polish Leopard tanks, of older versions, I assume A4 and A5 versions. But these apparently were not good enough for the Polish, and they refused them, demanding to get delivered the latest of the latest version fresh from factory - tanks that even the Bundeswehr has not been delivered so far.

For free.

Thats what I would call a superb upgrade program. Trade old T-72 for new Leo2-A7s or newer, and for free. :yeah:

I hack away at the Germans a lot, but here it seems it is the Polish deserving a kick in the lower rear.

Even an older Leo2A4 is an excellent upgrade over a T-72M1D. Mobility, firing precision, crew security and vision/sights do not compare.

[mapuc]

Can Putin prevent it from happening ?

‘Almost nobody is happy with Putin’ Meduza’s sources say a new wave of pessimism in the Kremlin has Russia’s hawks demanding more brutality in Ukraine while others scout for presidential successors

https://meduza.io/en/feature/2022/05/24/almost-nobody-is-happy-with-putin

Edit
Does anyone of you have knowledge on or about Military strategy ?
End edit

Markus

[Dargo]

Can Putin prevent it from happening ?



https://meduza.io/en/feature/2022/05/24/almost-nobody-is-happy-with-putin

MarkusLet the hawks do their thing, do not disturb their mistakes

[August]

Can Putin prevent it from happening ?



https://meduza.io/en/feature/2022/05/24/almost-nobody-is-happy-with-putin

Edit
Does anyone of you have knowledge on or about Military strategy ?
End edit

Markus




That was an interesting read. Thanks for posting Markus!

[mapuc]

That was an interesting read. Thanks for posting Markus!

I recall a story, posted here in this thread saying that a coup was on its way in Kreml and it couldn't be stopped. This some month ago and Putin is still the President of Russia.

I think Putin will still be around in 3-5 month from now and if he isn't then it will be due to his illness-Cancer(rumour have it that he is suffering from cancer)

Markus

[Dargo]

Russians are pressing on the Ukrainian group located north of Sloviansk, pushing it into Siverskyi Donets river in an attempt to cut it into parts and defeat them. Russians failed at Izyum direction, but they have success in Lyman - reportedly half the town is now captured. Significant problems for Ukrainian group around Lisichansk and Severdonetsk which are under real threat of operational encirclement. 5-6 fresh BTG's have been thrown in against exhausted Ukrainian troops, in addition to air and artillery superiority. Likewise, offensive towards Bahmut from Popasna continues. Bahmut is under very heavy aviation and artillery shelling.

Holding up for now, but the situation is difficult and will get even more difficult. If Siverskyi Donets is crossed, the ‘cauldron’ will start closing. Svetlodar has been abandoned by Ukrainian troops, although the withdrawal was controlled. It appears the Russian command set an objective to put all they have into reaching LPR and DPR borders. For that, they are bringing fresh BTGs formed from reservists, PMCs, units transferred from the Far East, parts of BTG from Belgorod Oblast, Rosgvardia. They continue accumulation and the group will be increased to around 10-12 more BTGs according to Arestovych’s estimates. So the situation is very difficult across the whole frontline.

Something brewing up in Zaporizhye area as Russians formed 3 BTGs in Vasilyevka while attempting to reach Orekhov and Huliaipole, although for now no changes and Zaporizhye residents are not yet recommended to evacuate. In Krivyi Rih direction Russians reached Belaya Krinitsa but it’s very difficult for them due to artillery and aviation strikes and lack of manpower. Mykolaiv and Kherson - no news to report. Why is Russia in a hurry to conduct this offensive? Some crisis is likely brewing, but what exactly is not clear, and someone in Russia needs success. Arestovych believes it is certainly NOT linked to a potential upcoming UAF counter-offensive - it’s too much of a hurry.

The number of Russian emissaries in the West and open attempts to buy votes of politicians/lobbying show Russia’s desire to demonstrate its capability to pull Ukraine into Minsk-3 agreement. Even though Russia suffered many defeats they want the West to believe the war will be long, Putin has ambitions, so they should be given what they want in Kherson and LDPR and then continue business as usual. But Ukraine says there will be no Minsk-3. Gen. Major Kanamat Bitashiev, who was taken down in Su-25 a few days ago. How did he end up there? Feygyn states he started from Krymsk, where a nearly complete aircraft unit was destroyed. He is not alone like that.

This means Russian aviation is having terrible losses in personnel if they have to get in retired, PMC-style types. Also, Arestovych confirms that the Su-34 pilot with his co-pilot who were shot and ejected (we heard intercepted comms days ago), they both have perished. While the fall of Donetsk group will certainly be a very significant morale blow for Ukraine, the war won’t be lost. Just to reach Dneprovetrovsk border, Russia would have to assault at least 3-4 similar localities, which will take 1,5-2 months each. However, Russia is burning staff forces, and soon all they’ll have left will be PMCs, reservists, L/DPR, which will not even resemble a true army. With lend-lease coming within the next 2-3 months, this will reflect on Russia’s ability to defend Ukrainian counter-offensive.

https://twitter.com/mdmitri91/status/1529201868617957386

[mapuc]

^ I follow a livestream from Ukraine and we had 4 cameras in 4 different places whereof one of them was outside Slovyansk.

Wow would be a wrong word to use-But by God have I seen explosion, missile firing into the air and explosion some minutes after in the clouds. en mas.

Markus

[Skybird]

I recall a story, posted here in this thread saying that a coup was on its way in Kreml and it couldn't be stopped. This some month ago and Putin is still the President of Russia.

I think Putin will still be around in 3-5 month from now and if he isn't then it will be due to his illness-Cancer(rumour have it that he is suffering from cancer)

MarkusA lot of these kind of rumours is launched by the boss of the Ukrainian intelligence service and should be seen as part of the war effort, to spread confusion and demotivation amongst Russians. A week without a new go by him is a week not complete. :)

[mapuc]

In a way I understand them-My Danish friends who can't understand why we are sending weapon and ammo to Ukraine-They motto is: This is not our war and in a way they are correct.

However and this is important...if we do not help Ukraine in their war against Russia, we may in fact end up with a war with Russia (If all these expert who says Putin will continue after he has taken Ukraine are correct)

Markus

[Catfish]

In a way I understand them-My Danish friends who can't understand why we are sending weapon and ammo to Ukraine-They motto is: This is not our war and in a way they are correct.
This is a very german thing to do, just sit it out and make yourself comfortable.
Until the enemy is at our gates, then other nations will do the same as we did before .. nothing.
However and this is important...if we do not help Ukraine in their war against Russia, we may in fact end up with a war with Russia (If all these expert who says Putin will continue after he has taken Ukraine are correct)

Markus
If he had conquered Ukraine he would have probably stopped. Probably. For now. Since no one can know what Putin or his successor plans wouldn't it be better to be prepared?
Also, and this is cynical of course, Ukraine fights the war for Europe. Better support them there than being forced to fight the war in Germany, or Denmark for that matter.
Strategy-wise Ukraine is even fighting for "the west" and its values. I have always wondered if those german Putino-philes would prefer to live in Russia, or Chechenia. I'd propose for them to immediately go there and try it out.

[Skybird]

Die Welt writes this. The general is so very, very right with what he indicates about the playing foul of the German government. I think and say the same. Do not trust Scholz, he plays foul, foul, foul. After all, the SPD always has been the most loyal advocate of Moscow's interests in Europe.


Klaus Wittmann was a brigadier general in the Bundeswehr. He explains Russia's large territorial gains with Ukraine's low resistance. In negotiations, they would lose the territories - a ceasefire would be the wrong way to go, in his view. The Russian advance in the Donbass continues. Last week, Russia's army made major territorial gains, according to its own figures. In the view of former Bundeswehr general Klaus Wittmann, the Ukrainian resistance force does not go far enough. In an interview with the WELT, he explains how Ukraine can regain its initiative and analyzes what role the German government plays in this.

WELT: Mr. Wittmann, if even the Ukrainian president says: Things are not looking good in the east, how do you actually have to imagine this in practical terms for the Ukrainian troops?

Klaus Wittmann: The pressure from the Russian forces is getting stronger. They are pulling together everything they have to gain space in the Donbass. And they already have 90 percent of Luhansk oblast in their possession. When President Selenskyj says the pressure is increasing, the situation is very serious. The Russians are trying to encircle certain towns, such as Zyverodonetsk. I don't estimate the morale and the will to fight of the Russian soldiers any better than that in the last whole last months. But one has to state realistically: Russian firepower is far superior.

WELT: What we are currently hearing sounds very threatening, at least for the eastern territories.

Klaus Wittmann: Yes, it is. In the last seven days, the Russians have gained more space than in the whole of May so far. I can only repeat: The strengthening of the Ukrainian resistance force is not yet far enough. And you can take a look at your own nose, many announcements that we have made have not been carried out for a long time.

WELT: As far as arms deliveries are concerned, the reports are often contradictory. First they say: We can deliver. But then the German government says: What we could deliver is currently sitting in the yard and first has to be repaired. What then?

Klaus Wittmann I can tell you two things about that: First, if the relevant decisions had been made in March, then the Leopard, Marder, self-propelled howitzers 2000, Gepard would all have been repaired, supplied with ammunition, the crews would have been trained and these very effective weapon systems would be in service in Ukraine. And secondly, if you really want something, you can make it happen. And if you don't want something, you're forever finding excuses, reservations, bureaucratic obstacles and the like.

WELT: Let's take another look at the situation in eastern Ukraine: What is the overall direction of the situation right now?

Klaus Wittmann: I hope, I hope that Ukraine will stand firm, that it will continue to be supplied with weapons systems and that it will get back on the initiative. SPD parliamentary group chairman Rolf Mützenich said in an interview on the war against Ukraine: "I hope that a ceasefire can be reached soon. Then we can finally focus on other issues." First of all, I find that incredibly lacking in empathy, and secondly, it feeds the suspicion, which others have already expressed, that the German political leadership is playing for time, hoping for a cease-fire, so that there will then be no need at all to keep the promises regarding heavy weapons. And there you fail to recognize what is happening to the people in the areas that Russia has occupied. And you fail to realize that at the moment Russia has doubled the occupied Ukrainian territory compared to February of this year and will certainly not hand over this conquered territory in negotiations. So to try to persuade the Ukrainians now: You have to enter into a cease-fire now as the very highest priority, I think that's wrong.

Note: For better readability, the spoken word has been slightly changed and shortened.

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (http://www.DeepL.com/Translator) (free version)


What sickens me is that the SPD once again repeats the patterns of a crime Germans have committed against the Ukraine already in the past.

Thank God I am no nationalistically - and no more patriotically - feeling man, else I would need to sink into the ground in shame over this country.

[Jimbuna]

Russia says it will allow ships carrying food out of blockaded ports if sanctions are lifted.

Ukraine is a major grain producer and the EU accuses Russia of weaponising food.

The UK has warned prices will only increase if the stand-off isn't resolved.

On the ground Russian troops are currently trying to encircle the twin cities of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk.

Ukraine says the Russian invasion is in the 'most active' phase as Russia tried to capture the eastern Donbas region.

Sweden, Finland and Turkey are to hold talks to try to overcome Turkey's objections to the pair joining Nato.

[Jimbuna]

Talk of prisoner swap 'premature' - Russia

It would be "premature" to consider a prisoner swap with Kyiv before Ukrainian soldiers who have surrendered stand trial, Russia's deputy foreign minister says.

In comments reported by Russian news agency Interfax, Andrei Rudenko, said Moscow would consider a prisoner swap with Kyiv after the surrendered Ukrainian fighters were "appropriately convicted, sentenced".

"Before that, all talk of an exchange is premature," he said.

It comes after Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said late on Monday that Kyiv was ready for an exchange of prisoners and urged international allies to pressure Moscow.

The fate remains unclear of hundreds of Ukrainian fighters from the besieged steelworks in the southern city of Mariupol who were taken to Russian-controlled areas last week.

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8enu8d7uDDo

[Ostfriese]

German industry is now planned to deliver 15 Gepards "in July", with 59,000 rounds of remaining ammunition they found somewhere.
The two cannons at full burst rate together consume 1100 rounds per minute, more than a single Gepard has loaded.



A good many years (~30) have passed since I was a gunner in a Gepard tank, yet I still remember that it would be a stupid idea to fire continuously for a full minute ;)
Usually bursts of 25 - 30 rounds are fired, and even back in the day firing more than two bursts per engagement was considered to be exceptionally rare.

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zzlhafkrt28

[Skybird]

A good many years (~30) have passed since I was a gunner in a Gepard tank, yet I still remember that it would be a stupid idea to fire continuously for a full minute ;)
Usually bursts of 25 - 30 rounds are fired, and even back in the day firing more than two bursts per engagement was considered to be exceptionally rare.
Still hiding one in your garage, eh? Just in case that...?! :D



:O:

[Dargo]

Import volumes into Russia have fallen 89% compared to the week before the invasion.


https://i.postimg.cc/vBfhF0XD/FTn-Dz5r-Xw-AIzq1-Y.png

[Ostfriese]

Still hiding one in your garage, eh? Just in case that...?! :D



:O:


Nah, it's not that dangerous here :D

[Dargo]

Sweden and Finland appear to have made some progress today in their NATO membership talks with Turkey. According to a spokesman for President Erdoğan, Turkey has observed "a positive approach" with the two Scandinavian candidate countries.

In particular, it would be about Turkey's objections regarding Sweden's and Finland's arms embargo against Turkey.

Today, senior officials from the three countries met for five hours in Ankara. Turkey is the only NATO member state threatening to block the NATO membership of Sweden and Finland. The main Turkish objection is that Sweden and to a lesser extent Finland would support the Kurdistan Workers' Party PKK and other Kurdish groups.

[Dargo]

How long before Russia send a brigade of babushkas into Ukraine? :har:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/05/23/west-ukraine-russia-must-pay-not-impose-ceasefire-war/

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bo6ajq11NpE

[Skybird]

The Russians have learned and adapted. Slowly, and not without repeatedly having gotten their rears delivered back to them, and even now the offensive is not impressive - but it keeps the momentum and it shows they use adapted tactics. And their traditional superiority - artillery and missiles artillery - is now being used to the very max. And shows how fearsomely effective it then can be.

Age limits have been suspended today for older men who want to join the Russian army.

It seems the Russians are willing to pay any price to complete the conquest of Donbass. They cannot get out of this war with nothing in their hands, they need a trophy. Whether this could be it or they try to continue after they got the Donbass completely, and Luhansk, remains to be seen. If they "feel fit" enough, they will continue. If they feel like having gotten sufficiently beaten up, they will seek negotiations for freezing of the status quo - until in some years they launch the next war.

Because one thing is clear: they want the Ukraine getting lost on maps and in history records, it has no right to exist, in their eyes.

With Donbass gone and possibly all coastline and harbours gone as well, the Ukraine would have neither access to the ocean for shipping, nor will the industrial heart support the remaining Ukraine. Which is what Putin aims at: to destroy the economic heart of Ukraine, to turn it into an unfit-to-live hollow torso of a state.

[Skybird]

On the German-Polish dispute, detaisl are still not clear and maybe never will be released to the public, but it has been specified that the Polish indeed demand the Leopard-2 A7v (V=verbessert/improved). This tank is being delivered to the German army since second half last year, and only a batallion that gets prepared to take the leading role in NATO's very high readiness reaction force next year has gotten its tanks upgraded to this latest standard. No chance that Germany has told the Polish they would get this latest tank - the German do not have enough of them themselves and from the around 100 tanks they have in that batallion they simply cannot afford to replace 200+ Polish T-72.



The Polish take the older Leopards that likely were offered, or they can shove it. Mind you, there is an ongoing little "war" between Poland and Nazigermany going on since many, many years, and the Polish side leaves not one opportunity out to agigate and kick against the Germans.

[mapuc]

By reading your posting about this ongoing issues between Germany and Poland, makes me wonder if Poland is still using what Germany did to them 80 years ago as an excuse for their behaviour.

Markus

[Skybird]

By reading your posting about this ongoing issues between Germany and Poland, makes me wonder if Poland is still using what Germany did to them 80 years ago as an excuse for their behaviour.

Markus
Oh you bet on it!



That "carricatures" showing Merkel with Hitler beard were printed in mainstream newspapers, was the norm in Poland, Greece, Turkey.

[Gorpet]

Oh you bet on it!



That "carricatures" showing Merkel with Hitler beard were printed in mainstream newspapers, was the norm in Poland, Greece, Turkey.

We have the same thing happening here in the United States.

[Aktungbby]

:k_confused:Russia is considering a new law that would hand 20-year prison sentences to battlefield defectors and others who volunteer to fight for foreign armies – the latest sign of President Vladimir Putin’s growing alarm at the state of his invasion of Ukraine.
The new bill introduced by leaders in the State Duma – the lower chamber of Russia’s legislature – would add penalties to the existing criminal code for those who participate “in an armed conflict, hostilities or other actions with the use of weapons and military equipment on the territory of a foreign state for purposes contrary to the interests of the Russian Federation,” according to translation of the proposed text.
The most grievous violators, including those who contribute to raising a militia that would operate outside Russia or indeed against its military, could face as long as 20 years in prison and fines exceeding 2.5 million rubles, or roughly $40,000.
Several Kremlin watchers familiar with inner workings in Moscow tell U.S. News the introduction of the bill reflects growing concern among Russian elites of the rates of defectors on the battlefield in Ukraine, along with reports that hundreds are volunteering to join specialized units in the Ukrainian army composed of disaffected Russian citizens.
Speaking on the condition of anonymity, they say leaders in Moscow believe the law will help control the domestic population.
“Russia has seen significant brain drain over the past three months,” Colin Clarke, senior research fellow at the private intelligence firm The Soufan Center says. “The longer the war drags on, the worse it looks for Putin, and thus, the more he will seek to control the population and the information environment within Russia.”
“This could be a sign that the Kremlin is increasingly concerned that the war is becoming ever more unpopular domestically,” Clarke adds.
British intelligence reported this week that Putin has grown frustrated with the performance of his battlefield commanders and his top military advisers, firing some and distancing himself from others.
But among the most discomforting factors facing the Kremlin is a new, specialized Ukrainian army unit known as the Freedom of Russia Legion composed of Russian defectors. Established weeks after Russia’s invasion on Feb. 24, legion leaders said earlier this month that they receive hundreds of applications to join each day.
“There are a lot of people who want to,” a Russian representative said during a press conference organized by Ukraine’s Interfax news agency on May 4.
“Our legion also includes our Belarusian brothers. Our legion includes active and retired military of the Russian Federation and otherwise,” another soldier said. “People come from different countries to fight the Putin regime.”
The unit has subsequently posted several videos to its Telegram channel that it claims depict forces capturing Russians operating in Ukraine.
The Guardian reports hundreds of thousands of Russians have fled their homeland since Putin ordered the invasion, including intellectuals, journalists and other activists – but noted that few among Russia’s political or business elites have directly and openly criticized the Russian leader and the war.
“I want to go to the place where I can defend my homeland with a weapon, I’m trying every day,” one expatriate in Kyiv told the paper. “I am never going back to Russia.”
Those numbers, however, are expanding. A veteran Russian diplomat this week resigned his position in Geneva in protest of Putin’s invasion.
“Never have I been so ashamed of my country,” Boris Bondarev wrote in a public statement.

[Dargo]

The Russians have learned and adapted. Slowly, and not without repeatedly having gotten their rears delivered back to them, and even now the offensive is not impressive - but it keeps the momentum and it shows they use adapted tactics. And their traditional superiority - artillery and missiles artillery - is now being used to the very max. And shows how fearsomely effective it then can be.

Age limits have been suspended today for older men who want to join the Russian army.

It seems the Russians are willing to pay any price to complete the conquest of Donbass. They cannot get out of this war with nothing in their hands, they need a trophy. Whether this could be it or they try to continue after they got the Donbass completely, and Luhansk, remains to be seen. If they "feel fit" enough, they will continue. If they feel like having gotten sufficiently beaten up, they will seek negotiations for freezing of the status quo - until in some years they launch the next war.

Because one thing is clear: they want the Ukraine getting lost on maps and in history records, it has no right to exist, in their eyes.

With Donbass gone and possibly all coastline and harbours gone as well, the Ukraine would have neither access to the ocean for shipping, nor will the industrial heart support the remaining Ukraine. Which is what Putin aims at: to destroy the economic heart of Ukraine, to turn it into an unfit-to-live hollow torso of a state.

Russian's last offensive to take the Donetsk Oblast after this they have used their reserves and start talks about ceasefire. They just want it all to end, Ukraine to submit, for some west leaders to calm down (for now) Putin, and they can go back to their croissants, bratwurst and countryside villas.

[Dargo]

Russia says it expects Kyiv to accept its demands, including claims on occupied territories. Kremlin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the Russian-occupied territories were not territorial concessions. Ukraine has repeatedly stated that it won’t give up any of its territories.

[Dargo]

Supply route to Severodonetsk restored: Ukrainian troops have successfully counterattacked and removed the Russian forces on the Bakhmut - Lysychansk road and have started moving supplies on the road again. This "Road of Life" is not the only route, but it is the best one and shortest supply route the Ukraine army has right now.

This is important because Russia has activated its reserves to make several BTG's for this offensive this failure means they gone have much higher losses to take Lysychansk that they now hardy can replace in short time. This road is a must capture for Russia and a must hold for the #Ukraine. If #Russia is able to re-capture & build strong defenses, Ukraine will likely be unable to take it back anytime soon. This leaves 1 well-built supply route on the Siversk to Lysychans'k road. Russia still has excellent observation and can fire artillery at vehicles passing along the Siversk to Lysychans'k road & Bakhmut - Lysychansk road. This means that all Ukrainian resupplies will be under fire by #RUAF for miles as they pass in front of the front lines.

[mapuc]

Ukraine denies any agreement where they have to give a way part of their land for peace.

So far it's only France who has come up with this idea which Macron have given to Zelenskyj who of course rejected this idea-land for peace.

Now since we have this problem with Russia is blocking the port in the Black sea and nor EU or NATO is interested in a conflict with Russia to get the hand of the million of ton wheat.

I can't get the feeling out of my head that EU and NATO will press Ukraine and Zelenskyj to give up land for peace. Or get no more weapon.

Markus

[Dargo]

Ukraine denies any agreement where they have to give a way part of their land for peace.

So far it's only France who has come up with this idea which Macron have given to Zelenskyj who of course rejected this idea-land for peace.

Now since we have this problem with Russia is blocking the port in the Black sea and nor EU or NATO is interested in a conflict with Russia to get the hand of the million of ton wheat.

I can't get the feeling out of my head that EU and NATO will press Ukraine and Zelenskyj to give up land for peace. Or get no more weapon.

MarkusNato with this US administration will not demand this and EU is not only Germany/France who decides, see also no majority for it in the present. Blocking the Black Sea is to be solved if there is a stop to the bombing of rail/roads other countries at the Black Sea can ship that grain and can also be transported via Europe there are already countries to offer this.

We’re living in the of age of the weakest and petty-minded decision-makers in the West. “Yeah, let’s have an informal agreement not to donate tanks and jets to Ukraine, we don’t want to provoke Putin.” To provoke into frelling what? Attacking NATO as he struggles to take Liman?

[Dargo]

New details are coming to light about incredibly daring resupply missions that were flown by Ukrainian helicopter crews right into the heart of the fighting in the occupied seaport city of Mariupol. Flying two at a time and once four at a time, Ukrainian Mi-8 Hip helicopter crews braved dense Russian air defense and enemy aircraft concentrated in and around Mariupol to deliver desperately needed supplies and fresh troops to the defenders of the besieged Azovstal steel plant.

Of the 16 total helicopters involved, two were destroyed, Ukraine Brig. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov, the head of Defense Intelligence of Ukraine, told The War Zone in an exclusive series of interviews. Another helicopter was destroyed coming to the rescue of one of the downed Hips.

“The special operation was planned and performed by Defense Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine,” said Budanov, offering previously unreported details of those dangerous missions... https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/exclusive-details-of-ukraines-daring-helicopter-missions-into-russian-occupied-mariupol

[mapuc]

Nato with this US administration will not demand this and EU is not only Germany/France who decides, see also no majority for it in the present. Blocking the Black Sea is to be solved if there is a stop to the bombing of rail/roads other countries at the Black Sea can ship that grain and can also be transported via Europe there are already countries to offer this.

We’re living in the of age of the weakest and petty-minded decision-makers in the West. “Yeah, let’s have an informal agreement not to donate tanks and jets to Ukraine, we don’t want to provoke Putin.” To provoke into frelling what? Attacking NATO as he struggles to take Liman?

Some days ago they said in the news that we(Europe/West) had enough wheat and some other farm related stuff for about 8 weeks. Then we will be without wheat..until our own farmer have harvest their wheat. And this will first be in the middle of aug.

With this in mind I thought-Will EU and/or Nato put pressure on Zelenskyj when we approach this deadline in around 8 weeks from now.

Markus

[Dargo]

Some days ago they said in the news that we(Europe/West) had enough wheat and some other farm related stuff for about 8 weeks. Then we will be without wheat..until our own farmer have harvest their wheat. And this will first be in the middle of aug.

With this in mind I thought-Will EU and/or Nato put pressure on Zelenskyj when we approach this deadline in around 8 weeks from now.

MarkusEurope does not import grain, it grows enough itself

[Skybird]

Europe does not import grain, it grows enough itself
European countries import and export certain, varying grains. There are many different grains. ;) 2019 and 2020 Europe alltogether even turned into net importers of grain, due to droughs. I have no info on 2021, however. Next year's harvests will become... interesting. Lack of fertilizers and seeds is the stumbling block.

We should immediately stop farming crops and plants for fuel production. It sounds like a stupid idea because it IS a stupid idea when the ratio between population size and available farming soil is like it is in Europe and the effectively usable size of famrign soil is beign drmataically reduced due to turning to ecological farming, which almost halves the avaialble areas. And they say they even want and must compensate for the losses of exports from Ukraine and Russia to Africa...


They want way too much, and at the totally wrong time. I wonder whether they learn their mistake before or just after they have collapsed evertyhing. Oh that precious tempting sweet ideology, the great persuader...

[Rockstar]

Any bets that once Russia stabilizes and reinforces the borders of the Donbas region they will again turn their attention to Kyiv via Belarus?

[August]

Any bets that once Russia stabilizes and reinforces the borders of the Donbas region they will again turn their attention to Kyiv via Belarus?


I wouldn't bet against that happening.

[Ostfriese]

Europe does not import grain, it grows enough itself


Europe does not, since 2019 the EU has been a net importer of grain, and before that it has only been a net exporter of grain in eleven years of it's existence.

[Skybird]

Russian losses in Donbass may be high, but that of Ukraine are high as well, and their reserves are limited. Two days ago I red that they - the Ukrainians - sometimes send in a unit, say a company or batallion, and have 50% casualties within 24 hours. The battles there are described as repeating the combat seen in WW2.

What the Russians lack in other things, they more than compensate with artillery, of which they have aplenty. For them, artillery is the Queen of the Battlefield, whereas in the West agility and mobility is being prioritized. What Russia lacks in subtlety and agility, it makes up for by sheer firepower and artillery's brute force. Add to this missiles and air popwer, of which they now seem to make better use. To me it currently looks like as if in the Donbass and Luhansk the Ukraine is loosing by attrition.

And Germany and some others play wordgames about what the difference is between heavy weapons and armoured vehciles and tanks, and when a vehicle is an armoured vehicles or already more a tank, while the US delivers more APCs and howitzers and Germany says NATO agrees to deliver none of these. Bubble-Olaf at his best, spreading nothing but confusion amongst enemies and "friends" alike. He is so pathetic.

Germany and France do not want the ukraine to "win", but they want it to accept a land for "peace" deal that allows Russia to save its face, thjat obviously isthe German priority, no matter what Scholz claims differently - I do not believe him one word. From his delegation at Davbos it was voiced that German industr yis so happy that lgovbalizaiton will continue afetr the war and that we need to talk with Russia again. Business as before, that means. It makes me sick. And as some newspaper wrote today: "der Sentimental-Pazifismus der SPD". Gisgusting.

News from the German defence ministry. In absence of the defence "ministress", her state secretary revealed to a stunned public two or three days ago that in the German defence policy currently "diversity policies and their implementation" are at the very focus, and that one is working hard on them.


Aha.


Thank God there are no important things to work hard on currently. Timetables for weapon deliveries, for example, and re-arming the Bundeswehr. Here we have a defence minster who is really in control of her house! I sleep better since I know that she is guarding our peaceful sleep at night.

[Dargo]

Any bets that once Russia stabilizes and reinforces the borders of the Donbas region they will again turn their attention to Kyiv via Belarus?
Stabilizes and reinforces with what? 60-year-old soldiers?

[tmccarthy]

Col. Richard Black (ret.)
Why are we risking nuclear war over Ukraine? Have we gone mad?

https://youtu.be/BVjIUwDQccE

[tmccarthy]

America’s Ukraine Hypocrisy (2017)
"But the historical record shows that Washington has meddled in the political affairs of dozens of countries— including many democracies. An egregious example occurred in Ukraine during the Euromaidan Revolution of 2014."
https://www.cato.org/commentary/americas-ukraine-hypocrisy


The reason for US 2014 coup in Ukraine,


Yanukovich kills Ukraine's bid to join NATO (2010)
"Russia-leaning president Viktor Yanukovich has scrapped Ukraine's plans to join the Western military alliance, dissolving the commissions on European and NATO integration."
https://www.csmonitor.com/World/Europe/2010/0406/Yanukovich-kills-Ukraine-s-bid-to-join-NATO

Ukraine Says ’No’ to NATO
However, Yanukovych’s move to ban Ukraine from joining NATO is not without a base of public support. A September 2009 survey by the Pew Research Center’s Global Attitudes Project, found that half of Ukrainians (51%) opposed their country’s admission to NATO, while only 28% favored such a step. Moreover, given the opposition to membership, it is not surprising that about half of Ukrainians (51%) gave NATO an unfavorable rating.
https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2010/03/29/ukraine-says-no-to-nato/


The 2014 American Coup in Ukraine (2020)

https://youtu.be/nW7lNABfDVk

The NATO Conquest of Eastern Europe (2020)

https://youtu.be/r2lamuu8fzk

[Skybird]

What a drivel.



Btw, voluntarily choosen free membership is not the same like getting conquered. Nato conquered nobody in the East. The states there voluntarily fled from a dangerous oppressor.

[Skybird]

According to media reports, Russia has begun taking 50-year-old obsolete T-62 tanks from mothballed reserve stocks and deploying them in Ukraine. :doh:
No match for ATGMs (or modern tanks that the Ukrainians do not have, but T-72 still should be lethal enough). What crewmen are crazy enough to board them and drive them into battle...? Slow and clumsy even by Russian standards, no impressive range (and that with the poor logistics of the Russians...), thin-skinned (for a tank), and they say that thing just loves to burn if you just look too sharp at it. At the same time, as with all Russian tanks up to the T-90, the visibility for the crew and the targeting optics are probably rather lousy. Its 115mm smoothbore gave Western militaries concerns back in its time, but thats all about this model. Having been used in many wars, its battle scoring in past wars has impressed nobody even already back then.

Its a Putinistic machinery to get Russian soldiers killed.

[Dargo]

Attack on Severodonetsk intensified, 'city is important, but not in the economic field' The Ukrainian city of Severodonetsk is one of two cities in the Lugansk region that have not yet fallen into Russian hands. But the Russians are intensifying their attacks on the city and have surrounded it.

An estimated 12,000 to 13,000 civilians are still in the city, which had a population of over 100,000 before the war, reported Mayor Oleksandr Stryuk. According to him, some 60 percent of the residential buildings in the city have been destroyed. The city was briefly held by pro-Russian separatists in 2014, but was recaptured. After the pro-Russian capture of the city of Lugansk, many regional Ukrainian government tasks were transferred to Severodonetsk.

The fact that there has been such intense fighting around the city again for several weeks is mainly because of the strategic and symbolic importance of the small city, the siege of Severodonetsk are seen as an attempt to take the entire province of Lugansk.

[Dargo]

According to media reports, Russia has begun taking 50-year-old obsolete T-62 tanks from mothballed reserve stocks and deploying them in Ukraine. :doh:
No match for ATGMs (or modern tanks that the Ukrainians do not have, but T-72 still should be lethal enough). What crewmen are crazy enough to board them and drive them into battle...? Slow and clumsy even by Russian standards, no impressive range (and that with the poor logistics of the Russians...), thin-skinned (for a tank), and they say that thing just loves to burn if you just look too sharp at it. At the same time, as with all Russian tanks up to the T-90, the visibility for the crew and the targeting optics are probably rather lousy. Its 115mm smoothbore gave Western militaries concerns back in its time, but thats all about this model. Having been used in many wars, its battle scoring in past wars has impressed nobody even already back then.

Its a Putinistic machinery to get Russian soldiers killed.

However, these reports of T-62s allegedly being transported to the border by rail have not yet been confirmed by independent sources. Most of the Russian tanks destroyed in Ukraine were T-72s. Moscow still has thousands of T-72s in storage. Russia has some ten thousand tanks in storage, ranging from the widely used T-72 and the modern T-80 to the ancient T-62 from the 1960s.

My thought is if these transports are real, those T-62s are only for the separatist (There's never been any separatist's Russia fully controls, finances them, equips, trains and pays the wages of all military there) republic's to control their newly occupied areas after cease fire and most of Russian invasion equipment left those areas. The economic significance of the Donbas has been steadily declining over the past 20 years. For Russia, therefore, there is little to be gained economically. No matter how you look at it, it is an industrial area from the first half of the twentieth century. It needs incredible investment to make it an economically thriving area. It is politically and strategically important, but not more than that. Compare the Donbas with other impoverished industrial regions like the Borinage in Belgium.

[Dargo]

Psst Rusky, snack?

https://i.postimg.cc/QtG4tp7P/snack.jpg

[ET2SN]

My thought is if these transports are real, those T-62s are only for the separatist (There's never been any separatist's Russia fully controls, finances them, equips, trains and pays the wages of all military there) republic's to control their newly occupied areas after cease fire and most of Russian invasion equipment left those areas.

You need to stick around once this thing dies down. That's some first class cypherin'. :up: :D