Here we go again-Ukraine once again

[Jimbuna]

China promises Putin ‘friendship without limits’, but experts say Beijing will exact a price from Russia

China might appear ridiculous to much of the world by issuing a joint condemnation, alongside Moscow, of “unilateral bullying of one country”, i.e. Russia, even as it stands shoulder to shoulder with Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine.

But that won’t worry Beijing, says Steve Tsang, director of the Soas China Institute in London. “For a regime that is used to enjoying ‘a monopoly on the truth’, it is not that surprising that it is comfortable with its rhetoric regardless of the perception of the outside world,” he says.

It was all smiles on Wednesday in Moscow as China’s top diplomat, Wang Yi, arrived to meet Putin and show the world the strength of ties between the two nuclear powers.

“Russian-Chinese relations are developing as we planned in previous years. Everything is moving forward and developing,” Vladimir Putin told reporters as he sat beside Wang.

Wang met Putin even as Russian and Chinese warships prepared for joint naval drills off the coast of South Africa.

Some reports suggest Wang’s visit, just days before the anniversary of the Kremlin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, is a precursor to a meeting between Putin and Chinese leader, Xi Jinping.

But despite insistence on their “friendship without limits”, Beijing and Moscow want different things from this marriage of convenience, and there’s little doubt who’s the dominant one in this partnership.

An isolated Russia desperately needs Chinese support. Xi is expected to make a “peace speech” on Friday in relation to Russia’s war on Ukraine (Kyiv says there can be no talk of peace with Russian troops in Ukraine).

China sees Russia as a useful tool as it seeks to challenge Western political and economic dominance. But it fears financial fallout from the war, and the potential damage to important economic ties with the US and Europe.

With its economy stuttering due to dire demographics, an imploding property sector and the effects of Covid and Ukraine war oil shock, Beijing knows it can’t afford to risk serious secondary sanctions for breaching Western sanctions on Russia.

“I think Xi and China are very concerned about it,” says professor Tsang. “They will support Putin to the maximum level short of taking actions that will clearly trigger secondary sanctions. Dual use components are not included in items that will result in secondary sanctions, hence China’s willingness to supply to Russia.”

But this could change as supporters of Ukraine call for the US to start penalising countries like China and even Turkey that are allowing these hi-tech components, which are made in Europe and America, to find their way into Russia.

Another analyst, Patricia Lewis, director of Chatham House’s International Security Programme, says China “will exact a price” for supporting Russia over Ukraine.

She thinks Beijing will be eyeing mineral resources in the central Asian, former Soviet states, over which Moscow still holds some sway. “Russia has all sorts of geography that China is interested in,” she says. “And that includes Arctic territory. I think Russia is selling itself down the river.”
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/china-promises-putin-friendship-without-limits-but-experts-say-beijing-will-exact-a-price-from-russia/ar-AA17OnZX?ocid=mailsignout&pc=U591&cvid=b4f9e94c6f37495b866754a1228c4e96

[August]

I'm guessing the Chinese will help the Russians just enough to keep them in the fight and bleeding. The last thing they want is a stronger Russia, especially when the Russians have open designs on Mongolia.

[Skybird]

Some days ago there was photo or video footage on some websites and reports in some newspapers that the Chinese actually do provide weapons and missiles to Russia, and since longer time already. I had not read it, however, I wanted to do so later, went onto some other internet stories, and never got back to it. Cannot say where it was.



China does not want a too weak Russia, becasue in the end both countries' prime enemy is the USA. It also doe snot want Russia loosing trhe war, or havign to giv eup Ukraine,t usi wpoiuöldm open unwanted questions about Chians own policies ion Tibet, Soth chinese Sea, Taiwan.



What both countries want is more freedom and untouchability for their totalitarian leaders and their land-grabbing, stealing and plundering.

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6BvOBW3FwbA

[ET2SN]

China does not want a too weak Russia, becasue in the end both countries' prime enemy is the USA. It also doe snot want Russia loosing trhe war, or havign to giv eup Ukraine,t usi wpoiuöldm open unwanted questions about Chians own policies ion Tibet, Soth chinese Sea, Taiwan.



IMO, what Xi needs is a Russia that can design China's military hardware. Whether China steals that tech or buys it for pennies-on-the-dollar is a moot point. China also needs ores and minerals plus oil.

I don't think Xi dreams of a perfect future where China and Russia get to dictate terms to the rest of the world. :yep:

[Jimbuna]

Washington does not know Putin’s true intentions, but it is unlikely to be in his interests to start nuclear arms race - Pentagon

Russian President Vladimir Putin has left it open for Russia to return to the New START Strategic Arms Reduction and Limitation Treaty, saying the Kremlin is suspending its participation in the deal, not withdrawing from it.

This was stated by US Deputy Secretary of Defense for Political Affairs Colin Kohl in an interview with the Voice of America Ukrainian service, Censor.NET informs.

"I think he chose that phrase on purpose, I think he probably doesn't think it's in Russia's best interest, given that the country is going broke, to engage in a full-scale nuclear arms race with the United States, as we've seen under during the Cold War".

Kohl stressed that Washington does not know Putin's true intentions, but "from the point of view of the US government, even at the height of the Cold War, it was important for us to negotiate strategic stability with the Soviet Union."

"The same applies to Russia today, we have a special responsibility as the world's two largest nuclear powers to not allow our nuclear arsenals to get out of control and never to use them in conflict," Kohl added, explaining that in the view of the presidential administration Joe Biden's New START arms reduction agreement is in the interests of the United States. "So we will continue to explore whether we can get back to that conversation," the senior official said.

It will be recalled that on February 21, during a speech before the Federal Assembly, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that Russia is "suspending" its participation in the Strategic Offensive Arms Treaty and is preparing to conduct nuclear weapons tests.

The very next day, the State Duma of Russia unanimously adopted a law suspending the Russian Federation's participation in the Treaty on Strategic Offensive. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3401513

EU ambassadors could not agree on tenth package of sanctions against Russian Federation

Since the ambassadors of the EU countries could not agree on the tenth package of sanctions against Russia, the negotiations will continue tomorrow.

This was reported by Rikard Jozvyak, the editor of Radio Liberty in Europe, Censor.NET informs.

"Today, there is no agreement among EU ambassadors on the 10th package of sanctions against Russia. Negotiations will continue tomorrow, worryingly close to the deadline of February 24," he tweeted.

Jozviak also reminded that Hungary previously wanted to remove 9 Russian oligarchs from the list of sanctions.

"Hungary backed down. At first, they talked about 9 people, then about 4, yesterday about 2, today - an agreement about 0. But the extension is only for 6 months, not 9 or 12 months, as requested by many other EU member states," he added journalist.

Earlier it was reported that the European Union intends to adopt the tenth package of sanctions before the anniversary of the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine. As stated by the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, in the tenth package of sanctions against the Russian Federation, it is proposed, in particular, to introduce export controls on 47 electronic components that can be used in weapons systems, including drones, missiles, and helicopters.

According to Politico, four Russian banks, including Alfa Bank, and about 130 individuals and legal entities, including military personnel, officials, and journalists of Russian state media, may be included in the tenth package of EU sanctions. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3401506

It is necessary to support Ukraine for victory, and then prevent history from repeating itself - Stoltenberg

It cannot be allowed that Russia continues to destroy European security.

As Censor.NET reports with reference to Sky News, this was stated by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg.

He emphasized that a year after the invasion, Putin is not preparing for peace, but "is preparing for a new war."

Stoltenberg called on allies to give Ukraine the support it needs to win and then ensure history does not repeat itself.

"We have seen the Russian model of aggression for many years," he said, mentioning Georgia, Crimea and Donbas.

"We cannot allow Russia to continue destroying European security. We must break this cycle of Russian aggression," Stoltenberg said.

The Secretary General of the Alliance emphasized that the NATO Allies will protect every inch of the Allies' territory.

"Your visit to Kyiv sent a clear message of unwavering support for Ukraine," he told Biden. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3401478

[Dargo]

The "huge offensive" of the Russians is not even noticed by everyone. Why is Kyrylo Budanov sure that a turning point in the war will come in the spring. Big Forbes interview

The stockpile of artillery shells in Russia has decreased to 30%, the remaining missiles are almost exhausted, and the maximum of Russian production is about 40 cruise missiles per month. All this forced Moscow to abandon its ambitious plans to seize Kyiv and shift its efforts to an attempt to occupy the entire Luhansk region and Donetsk region. Summing up the year of the great war in Ukraine, Kyrylo Budanov, the head of the Ukrainian SSR, told Forbes in an interview about this.

Kyrylo Budanov, 37, is one of the most media-savvy military personnel of Ukraine, he gave dozens of interviews to Ukrainian and international media. The scout is categorical in his answers: Russia is almost exhausted, Ukraine will soon win.

Such forecasts sound reassuring to war-weary Ukrainians, but they tend to come true. Budanov was one of the few official representatives of the authorities who warned of the Russian invasion at 5 a.m. on February 24. He also predicted the first victories of the Ukrainian defenders from the de-occupation of Kharkiv Oblast and Kherson.

The words of Budanov, who became the head of the GUR at the age of 34, have weight for the president as well. Forbes sources in Bankova say that the chief intelligence officer is one of the few in the country who has direct access to Zelenskyi.

Budanov meets Forbes journalists in his half-dark office. There are photos on the walls. They include the GUR mission, which evacuated people from Afghanistan during the fall of Kabul in 2021, and the defenders of Azovstal during the deaf encirclement by the Russians. Behind Budanov, there is no longer a map with Russia divided into parts. It lies folded on the table. "Now we are cutting it," jokes the head of GUR.

In an interview with Forbes, he told whether we should be afraid of an attack on Kyiv, where the GUR gets its information from, and how long Ukraine is ready to keep Bakhmut.
Russian offensive and mobilization

Russia is currently on the offensive on almost the entire eastern front. Is this the big offensive that has been talked about for the last two months, or should we expect something else from Russia in March?

The big Russian offensive they have in mind is already underway. But it continues so much that not everyone even sees it - such is the quality of this attack. They have a strategic task - to reach the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk regions by March 31.

Do you think this is the maximum they can announce now? Announcements are usually more ambitious than real possibilities.

I don't think, I know. This is what they dream of, they will not be able to do it.

Western mass media actively wrote about the fact that mass mobilization will begin in Russia at the end of January or at the beginning of February. They predicted numbers up to 500,000 people . Now it does not look like it has started.

And who told you that she is not there? It is hidden.

Is it possible to covertly recruit so many people?

In a country with a population of more than 100 million, what is the problem with recruiting 500,000.

What do we now know about mobilization in Russia, since the numbers vary?

During the first open wave of mobilization, they recruited a little more than 316,000. Here the question is: if everything is fine in Russia and they called another 316,000, why continue the mobilization? So, not everything is good. This will lead us to a simple conclusion: how many losses in the Russian Federation? This figure is sky high.

Of these 316,000, how many are already directly at the front?

More than 90% were sent immediately. No one trained them - immediately to the front.

There is no conditional stock?

A small percentage went to the formation of new units, but the majority went to the restoration of units that suffered losses, they are all at the front.

There is an assumption that we need to pay close attention to news about mobilization. If Russia manages to recruit 300,000 or 500,000 men, then the section of the front will be short-circuited for such a number of men on their side, and then an attack on Kiev can be expected. What do you think about it?

This is questionable logic, I do not share this opinion. The offensive in one direction or another is not limited by the number of people you want or can place somewhere.

But it increases Russia's capabilities.

We have an open war. What is surprising, that there is such an opportunity? Besides the possibility, there is also the reality. The reality is that they set themselves the goal of reaching the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk regions by March 31. You can feel the difference: taking Kyiv in three days and going to some borders someday.

Is there an understanding of how many they can call up, not in terms of the number of people, but how many machine guns, armored vehicles, and tanks they can issue?

There are enough automatic machines for any number, there is not enough armored vehicles even now, but this does not hinder them at all. Now there are many divisions that are being formed from scratch. They go without equipment, on "Urals" and "Kamazas". They no longer have BMPs and armored personnel carriers in their state. The equipment is all removed from long-term storage, they have already removed more than 60%, there is about 35% left, which can be quickly restored. Single production, and it does not cover needs.

What about Medvedev's claim of 800 tanks a year?

800 tanks a year, they are not able to do what they did in wartime, but in their best years.
About Bakhmut

It is not the first time that materials appear in foreign media where they advise us to reduce our presence in Bakhmut in order to preserve forces for a possible counteroffensive in the South. And they say that the importance of the city is not so much strategic as political.

I would like to see how such an offer would be made to the President of France. To say that you have a problem, leave the city of Marseille, it is not so strategic.

Is there more political expediency or military expediency in keeping Bakhmut?

Can you imagine that the President of the United States would be told: "Let's temporarily surrender New York, that's the way to do it"?

If we recall the Second World War, then Stalin was told that Kyiv should be withdrawn. He also said: "How can you retreat from the mother of Russian cities." We know what that led to.

If we go further according to your logic, then this led to the victory of the Soviet Union.

But 400,000 people were killed and captured during that operation.

For me, as a patriot and a soldier, the surrender of even a millimeter of territory is a disaster. This is my personal logic, you can agree with it, you can not. From a military point of view, holding Bakhmut gives us the ability to contain the Russians in that area and inflict catastrophic losses on them.

Are we exhausting them in this way?

We exhaust them and defend our territory, which in no case can be evaluated in the context of whether it is appropriate or inappropriate to leave.

It is about redistributing forces, not about simply surrendering the city. Perhaps it is more effective to use people in other directions?

I do not agree with this logic.
About the remnants of Russian weapons

You mentioned earlier that Russia is running out of supplies of equipment and shells, in particular 152 caliber. That they have shells left at the limit of 30% of the total number. With so many shells and with such equipment, how can they go on the offensive?

Any. Therefore, this "huge offensive" is not even noticed by everyone. As for the stockpile of weapons, they are now setting up mass production of artillery shells. This once again confirms that there are no stocks of shells, they are not enough.

For two months now, the Russian groups operating in our country have been living in a mode of maximum saving of ammunition. More or less normal ammunition is now used exclusively in Bakhmut and in the Lyman direction. They tried to storm Ugledar several times , and will continue to try, so this location was added. All other areas are in ammunition saving mode.

How many of them are now manufactured in Russia?

They produce much less than they use.

When and if they will be able to develop this production, sufficient to conduct an artillery war?

It will never succeed. Russia is not the Soviet Union. They have already felt it and understood it, it is a fact.

But the projectile is not a drone, it does not need to import electronics.

It is not so easy, it requires a lot of industries that have been destroyed in 30 years. For 30 years, Russia, like many other countries of the post-Soviet space, sold stocks.

Do they have the ability to find these shells in North Korea?

Theoretically, there is an opportunity. Do they deliver from there? There are no confirmed cases in North Korea. A test batch was imported from Iran, now they are trying to import another batch, no longer a test batch, it is about 20,000 shells. This is nothing compared to the numbers that are used... More at https://forbes-ua.translate.goog/war-in-ukraine/rosiya-vzhe-rozpochala-velikiy-nastup-chi-zmozhe-rf-mobilizuvati-shche-500-000-moldativ-koli-zakinchitsya-viyna-velike-intervyu-kirila-budanova-21022023-11881?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp

https://wartranslated.com/forbes-ua-interview-gurs-chief-kyrylo-budanov-interview/

[mapuc]

Will it end with a war between China and NATO-Where Ukrainian and Russian is fighting our war.

Would that be a possibility ?

Markus

[Dargo]

Russian Troops Know How Little They Mean to Putin
By Dara Massicot Ms. Massicot is a senior policy researcher at the RAND Corporation, focusing on Russian defense and security issues.

On the eve of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, its leaders expected a quick success. The Russian military, modernized in the past decade and emboldened by campaigns in Ukraine and Syria, was confident using force abroad. As Russia moved nearly 200,000 troops, missile launchers and combat aviation apparatus into place early last year, many feared the worst.

But Russian victory never came. Instead, the Russian military has sustained staggering losses: Senior U.S. officials place Russian casualties at well over 100,000. The army has lost thousands of pieces of armored equipment and several squadrons of fighter jets and helicopters, and expended a large proportion of its precision strike munitions and artillery shells. Any finesse or operational art in doctrine has given way to brute force and repetitive attacks. Russia’s army is becoming unrecognizable from what it was one year ago.

But that’s not stopping it. In fact, Russian leaders are preparing for a protracted conflict. To replace lost personnel, Russia mobilized 300,000 men last September, and to replace equipment losses, the military is withdrawing older equipment from strategic reserves. The Kremlin, for its part, increased defense budgets and ordered accelerated production of defense equipment. The military may be battered and bruised, but Russia is still intent on fighting.

The danger of that determination is plain to see. In eastern Ukraine, Russian forces are waging attritional battles as part of a new offensive that may last through the spring or early summer. In the face of Ukraine’s strong will to fight and continued Western support, the gains have been minimal and the losses steep. But the attacks are relentless.

This is a change from last fall. After retreating from the Kherson and Kharkiv regions, Russia assumed a defensive stance on the ground while it launched missiles at critical Ukrainian infrastructure and tried to exhaust Ukrainian air defenses from a distance. Such a strategy was supposed to give its forces time to regroup and regenerate, while complicating Ukrainian counteroffensives.

Yet Vladimir Putin was not satisfied. So last month, the Kremlin demoted Gen. Sergei Surovikin, the commander who had overseen the defensive shift. He was replaced by Gen. Valery Gerasimov, the long-serving chief of the general staff of the Russian Armed Forces who oversaw the invasion one year ago. In making this move, the Kremlin had clearly decided that an offensive approach — even with shaky forces and depleted equipment — was preferable to a defensive one.

There’s a problem: Russia’s forces are currently ill equipped for an offensive and need more time to train. But not according to General Gerasimov. Within a few weeks of his appointment, he ordered localized assaults in Donetsk and Luhansk to bring them under full Russian occupation and bog down Ukrainian forces elsewhere.

The tactics are crude. The Russians are using repetitive armored assaults in some areas and human waves of “storm” troops in others. In other words, they use infantry to draw fire from defending Ukrainian forces, exposing Ukrainian positions that can then be targeted by Russian artillery. The result is rates of Russian casualties not seen since the early weeks of the invasion. Newly mobilized Russian troops, knowing they are being used as cannon fodder, have even made public appeals to officials to be spared.

However rudimentary, the method has brought some success. Some Ukrainian positions, like Bakhmut, are under serious and mounting pressure. Russian forces are also attacking Kreminna, a city in Luhansk, where the situation is described by Ukrainian officials as tough. Farther south, the Russians are creating defensive positions along the front line, especially in Zaporizhzhia, perhaps out of concern for a Ukrainian counteroffensive there. Missile strikes by the Russian Air Force, meanwhile, continue to chip away at Ukrainian air defenses.

Russia still has untapped manpower and could call for another mobilization this year. Returns would be diminishing, though: The remaining equipment is in various states of disrepair and the men would require months of training. Without mobilizing even more men and pulling battalion sets of equipment from the reserves, another attack on northeastern Ukraine, such as the Kharkiv region, would be difficult. Another attack on Kyiv seems well beyond the ability of Russian forces now.

Despite such diminished capacity, the Russian command shows a high tolerance for losses and continues to push its troops forward, prepared or not. After this current offensive ends, it may be obvious to Russian leaders that the military cannot overcome its lack of trained crews, noncommissioned officers, junior officers, logisticians and other specialists who were casualties of the war’s early days. The transmission in the Russian Army’s engine has broken. Flooring the gas pedal with barely trained men and old tanks cannot force a shift into a higher gear.

Yet for now, Mr. Putin shows no signs of abandoning this war. He seems willing to sacrifice the lives of Russian men and mortgage Russia’s future to achieve what he can. For Ukraine, in need of urgent and sustained support, it is a deadly commitment.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/22/opinion/russia-army-ukraine.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0P79jCfwrV0

[Dargo]

Will it end with a war between China and NATO-Where Ukrainian and Russian is fighting our war.

Would that be a possibility ?

MarkusNo China wants economic political power but has no global intentions to got to war with us that is not in their interest.

[Skybird]

New mud and rain season ahead again. Will bog down what already is an anything but impressive Russian offensive. A reasonable expectation would be that after that season Ukraine will launch its own counteroffensive with whatever has arrived in mechanized combat vehicles from the West. until then they maybe will conduct preparatory bombardments of logistics and strongholds, HQs, supply lines, troop concentrations and so forth with their new longer range missiles.

[Dargo]

New mud and rain season ahead again. Will bog down what already is an anything but impressive Russian offensive. A reasonable expectation would be that after that season Ukraine will launch its own counteroffensive with whatever has arrived in mechanized combat vehicles from the West. until then they maybe will conduct preparatory bombardments of logistics and strongholds, HQs, supply lines, troop concentrations and so forth with their new longer range missiles.Correct the coming 2 months we will not see any big advances from both side.

[mapuc]

No China wants economic political power but has no global intentions to got to war with us that is not in their interest.

I was thinking in this term

We send weapons and ammo to Ukraine. and technically fighting the Russians by proxy.

There's no doubt in my mind that China is or will start sending military aid to Russia-Mostly ammo.

This ammo will be used in the war in Ukraine Ergo

Will China be fighting NATO in Ukraine by proxy.

I could be thinking wrong.

Markus

[Dargo]

I was thinking in this term

We send weapons and ammo to Ukraine. and technically fighting the Russians by proxy.

There's no doubt in my mind that China is or will start sending military aid to Russia-Mostly ammo.

This ammo will be used in the war in Ukraine Ergo

Will China be fighting NATO in Ukraine by proxy.

I could be thinking wrong.

MarkusNo they can not afford an economic decline sending military will mean endanger their trade with big markets economic decline will mean unhappy Chinese that is still the CCP biggest fear we have seen that with Covid after protest suddenly covid was a goner no word about it out of the party.

[Dargo]

For many outside the west, Russia is not important enough to hate
In the wake of the 9/11 terrorist attacks in the US, American pundits would plaintively ask: “Why do they hate us?” A year into Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine, a variation on that question has begun to take shape: “Why do they not hate them?”

“Them”, of course, refers to Putin’s Russia. The reluctance of non-western governments to impose sanctions on Moscow can be easily explained by economic interests. But how to explain why non-western publics do not feel more moral outrage at the Kremlin’s outright aggression?

A new study, United West, Divided by the Rest (https://ecfr.eu/publication/united-west-divided-from-the-rest-global-public-opinion-one-year-into-russias-war-on-ukraine/), reveals that the war and Russian military setbacks have not forced people in many non-western countries to downgrade their opinion of Russia or to question its relative strength. Russia is seen either as an “ally” or a “partner” by 79 per cent of people in China (unsurprisingly). But the same is true for 80 per cent of Indians and 69 per cent of Turks. Moreover, about three-quarters of respondents in each of these countries believe that Russia is either stronger, or at least as strong, as they perceived it to be before the war.

And while a plurality of Americans and Europeans want Ukraine to win even if it means a longer war and economic hardship for themselves, most Chinese, Indians and Turks who expressed a view said they would prefer the war to stop as soon as possible — even if that means Ukraine giving up part of its territory. They see western support for Kyiv as motivated by reasons other than the protection of Ukraine’s territorial integrity or its democracy.

Western support for Ukraine, particularly the delivery of advanced weapons, has made it easier for non-western nations to accept the Kremlin’s narrative of the conflict as a proxy for the confrontation between Russia and the west. This explains why Moscow’s military reverses at the hands of Ukrainian forces hardly register with many in the so-called global south. If Russia is facing off against the west as a whole, it is not surprising that it has been unsuccessful.

Confronted with such public attitudes, western analysts usually lament the corrosive effect of Russian propaganda and the legacies of colonialism. But much more important is that Europeans see the war as a return to cold war-style polarisation between two antagonistic blocs, whereas others tend to believe that the world is fragmenting into multiple centres of power. In the words of a former senior Indian diplomat, for many outside of the west “the war in Ukraine is about the future of Europe, not the future of the world order”.

Talking recently to journalists, writers and politicians in Colombia, I also detected a certain resentment at Europe’s geographic privilege. What exasperates the non-western “street” is that when something happens in Europe it is immediately treated as a global concern; while if takes place in Africa or Latin America, this is almost never the case. By ignoring war in Ukraine, many outside the west, either consciously or unconsciously, question Europe’s centrality in global politics. Although Putin and his propagandists may be relieved by the way non-western societies view what is happening in Ukraine, the question, “why do they not hate them” also has an answer that is less flattering to Moscow. Developing countries are not outraged by Putin’s aggression because Russia has ceased to be seen as a global superpower. For countries such as India and Turkey, Russia has become like them, so they do not need to fear it. The customary privilege of regional powers is to not be hated outside their region; Moscow now enjoys this privilege.

The Soviet Union was an ideological superpower. Soviet advisers in what used to be called the third world in the 1970s and 1980s were there to stir revolutions. Putin, on the other hand, does not have a transformative agenda outside of his imperial project in the post-Soviet space. The Wagner Group in Africa are mercenaries who fight for money, not ideas. Paradoxically, it is Russia’s lack of soft power that leaves the non-western world relatively unmoved by what Moscow is doing in Ukraine.

Now that it is just one “great middle power” among many, Russia’s wars blend into all the other conflicts around the world — they take their place alongside the violence in Syria, Libya, Ethiopia and Myanmar. The war in Ukraine is not a turning point in the non-western imagination. So the answer to the question, “why do they not hate them?” is simple. It’s because Russia is no longer important enough to hate.


https://www.ft.com/content/01b69c54-d679-4c86-8dc8-1fff649bf424

[August]

I was thinking in this term

We send weapons and ammo to Ukraine. and technically fighting the Russians by proxy.

There's no doubt in my mind that China is or will start sending military aid to Russia-Mostly ammo.

This ammo will be used in the war in Ukraine Ergo

Will China be fighting NATO in Ukraine by proxy.

I could be thinking wrong.

Markus


Well kinda but it's not necessarily going to lead to anything. After all Russia sent military equipment, advisors and pilots to the North Koreans during the 1951 conflict. Rumors have it that some of our captured troops were even sent to the gulag but we never declared war on them over it. Same thing happened in Vietnam with the ChiComs.

[Commander Wallace]

Well kinda but it's not necessarily going to lead to anything. After all Russia sent military equipment, advisors and pilots to the North Koreans during the 1951 conflict. Rumors have it that some of our captured troops were even sent to the gulag but we never declared war on them over it. Same thing happened in Vietnam with the ChiComs.


To further emphasize that point, a good number of North Korean MiG's were in fact piloted by " Sovietski " pilots. The same holds true in Vietnam with regards to the MiG-21's there. Soviet supplied SAM's brought down a good number of American Pilots and aircraft. Since a number of the pilots were fairly high ranking officers in the Navy and Air Force, they had intimate knowledge and understanding of American air defenses and strategic planning. That made them highly valuable and we know a number of Pilots ended up in the former Soviet Union.

[Jimbuna]

Ukraine has been told to expect Russian missile attacks to coincide with the anniversary of the invasion, its intelligence service says.

The United Nations is expected to approve a resolution that condemns Russia's invasion of Ukraine and calls for peace as soon as possible.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine was described as an "affront" to the world's collective conscience by UN head António Guterres.

Guterres also denounced "implicit threats to use nuclear weapons" by Vladimir Putin.

In Kyiv today, the Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez is meeting Ukrainian leaders.

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rWlG25xEH10

[Jimbuna]

Kremlin’s goal is to seize and hold Donbas by summer, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine

The strategic goal of the Russian Federation is to occupy the key settlements of the Donetsk region in the near future and to seize Donetsk and Luhansk regions by the summer.

As reported by Censor.NET with reference to Interfax-Ukraine, this was stated by the Deputy Chief of the Main Operational Department of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Brigadier General Oleksii Hromov.

"Russia's strategic goals have not changed - in the near term, it is important for the Kremlin to capture key settlements in the Donetsk region, and in the future to capture and hold the Donetsk and Luhansk regions of Ukraine by the summer," he said. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3401629

Russia will not win this war. All of Spain with Ukraine, - Prime Minister Sanchez

The Prime Minister of Spain, Pedro Sanchez, who is currently visiting Ukraine, said that Russia will not win the war.

He announced this on Twitter, Censor.NET reports.

"Bucha and Irpin show the wounds and scars of Putin's barbarism. Russia will not win this war. All of Spain is with Ukraine," he emphasized. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3401639

West’s supply of ammunition to Ukraine at current level is "insufficient", - Stoltenberg

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg considers the Western supply of ammunition "unstable". In addition, the war is turning into a "battle for logistics", so the allies of Ukraine must increase production.

He stated this in a conversation with Sky News, Censor.NET informs.

"The only way to maintain our support for Ukraine is to do what we've been trying to do now, which is to work with the defense industry to make sure that allies sign long-term contracts," Stoltenberg said.

However, he insists that NATO will support Ukraine "as much as necessary."

"We cannot allow Putin to win in Ukraine - it will be a tragedy for Ukrainians, but it will be dangerous for us," he says. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3401645

Government of Czech Republic approved further supply of military aid to Ukraine

The Czech Republic will continue to provide military aid to Ukraine. Equipment will be sent from warehouses.

This was reported by The Guardian, Censor.NET informs.

Czech Defense Minister Yana Chernokhova did not provide details on the specific equipment that the Czech Republic is supplying to Ukraine.

At the same time, she noted that the country sent Ukraine 38 tanks, 55 armored vehicles, four aircraft and 13 self-propelled howitzers from its military reserves. The Czech Republic also sent larger shipments from private companies. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3401667

[Jimbuna]

USA seeks to strengthen sanctions against Russian Federation, - Ministry of Finance

The US is working to strengthen sanctions against Russia.

As reported by Censor.NET with reference to Interfax-Ukraine, this was stated by US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.

"We strive to strengthen sanctions and solve the problem of violation of existing measures," she said.

According to her, the USA is still focused on blocking the Russian Federation's access to goods needed for the military industry.

In addition, Yellen expressed hope that the parties will be able to extend the agreement concluded in 2022 in Istanbul, which allows the export of grain from Ukraine. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3401673

There are not enough troops in Belarus to attack Ukraine, - General Staff

There are not enough troops on the territory of Belarus to form strike groups and carry out an offensive against Ukraine.

Oleksiy Hromov, deputy chief of the Main Operational Department of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, stated this at a briefing, Censor.NET reports with reference to Liga.net.

Hromov noted that Minsk continues to provide its territory for the training of Russian troops.

"It should be noted that the number of personnel, weapons and military equipment within the grouping of troops of the so-called allied state is insufficient to form strike groups and carry out an offensive from the territory of Belarus to the territory of Ukraine," Hromov said.

At the same time, he noted that the grouping of the Russian Federation on the territory of Belarus consists of newly formed units or those that suffered significant losses and were supplemented.

"Meanwhile, a significant part of the forces and means that were on the territory of Belarus as allied forces have already been moved to participate in hostilities on the territory of Ukraine, and new units are arriving to replace them," Hromov said.

He noted that the introduction of the death penalty for treason in Belarus may mean pressure from the authorities on the power bloc in the event that dictator Oleksandr Lukashenko decides to directly participate in the war against Ukraine. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3401685

Ukraine can refuse gas imports already this year - head of "Naftogaz" Chernyshov

This year, for the first time in the history of independence, Ukraine may refuse to import gas.

Oleksiy Chernyshov, head of Naftogaz JSC, told about this, Censor.NET reports with reference to RBC-Ukraine.

According to him, for this, it is necessary for "Naftogaz" to increase production by 8%, and private companies - by 16% against the background of the ban on fuel exports.

The attempt to abandon gas imports will be the first in the country's history since independence in 1991.

The International Monetary Fund calculated at the end of last year that Ukraine should purchase 5 billion cubic meters of gas in 2023. "Naftogaz" expects the same in the worst case scenario, Chernyshov said.

In recent months, JSC imported less gas than planned. According to Chernyshov, the company purchased about half of the planned 2 billion cubic meters from the end of October.

He called the national gas producers' efforts to maintain production a "heroic act," along with household discipline. Warm weather also helped Ukraine survive the winter.

"Increasing domestic production is our strategic goal, and we have to deal with it ourselves. This is not just a matter of business - it is a matter of survival and independence of Ukraine," said Chernyshov.

According to him, the situation that developed this winter affected Naftogaz's plan to abandon gas imports, although he did not rule out that it may still be necessary to purchase 2 billion cubic meters of gas.

"But this is not our main plan," Chernyshov said, noting that Ukraine must rely on itself. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3401674

[Skybird]

Neue Zürcher Zeitung:
-------------------------

Far from over - how Western security circles assess Russia's military options in Ukraine

The war is entering its second year. Weapons supplies from the U.S. and Europe have ensured Ukraine's survival so far. The question is how long the West can and will continue to help. Putin seems to be able to continue the war for a long time.

On the anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, we assess Ukraine's and Russia's military capabilities and resources for the war to continue. In this article, we analyze the situation in Russia and its goals; we will address those of the Ukrainians on Monday.

A year ago, the Russian invasion of Ukraine began. Since then, the West has been supporting the defenders with weapons. During his visit to Kiev on Monday, U.S. President Joe Biden announced more military aid worth half a billion dollars. After decades of rejecting arms exports to war zones, even Germany is now supplying anti-aircraft systems, howitzers, battle tanks and armored personnel carriers.

With the help of Western weapons, Ukraine succeeded last year in liberating part of the territory occupied by Russia. Since then, a grueling war of attrition has raged with high casualties on both sides. The number of casualties is estimated at over one hundred thousand each. The battlefields across the country are littered with the wreckage of thousands of tanks, vehicles and guns.

Now the war is entering its second year, with no end in sight. Ukraine continues to depend on Western aid for its very existence. Hopes that Russia would be permanently weakened militarily after last year's successful Ukrainian offensives have so far not been borne out on the battlefield. On the contrary, according to Western security circles, there are many indications that Russia will be able to wage this war for a long time to come. Putin is targeting not only Ukraine, but also its "center of gravity" (its source of strength) - the West - and its will to continue waging the war with all its consequences.

Images remind of the First World War

There is one image that vividly symbolizes Russian warfare in Ukraine. A field littered with shell holes near the heavily contested town of Bachmut is strewn with corpses. The image is reminiscent of footage from the Western Front in 1916. The fallen are believed to be mercenaries from the Russian Wagner Group, killed in artillery fire. For months the Russian military has been throwing new waves against the Ukrainian positions. On the 70-kilometer front around Bachmut, the Russians are said to have recently lost between 500 and 1,500 soldiers or mercenaries a day without making significant gains in terrain.

Other sections of the front are also largely at a standstill. Putin's attack is stalled. Yet it does not look as if he sees himself at a critical juncture. Rather, according to European security circles, he can continue the war for a long time. The NZZ has government documents from February of this year that give an impression of how disillusioned the situation is assessed in Berlin and other European capitals. Four points can be deduced from these documents.

1. the Russians are getting used to the war

A year into the war, it is obvious what Vladimir Putin is after: control of the "strategic apron," a broad-based confrontation with the West, and consolidation of his dictatorship at home. There is no doubt, the authors write in a document from German security circles, that he really wanted the war against Ukraine. He still believes he cannot lose it. Even if there were setbacks on the battlefield, such as the retreat from Kiev and Kherson, in the self-image of the Russian power apparatus defeats exist only on the opposing side.

The war set Russia back socially and economically by decades. Putin accepts this, and the "Russian population, practiced in political apathy," accepts it. His calculation is that society will get used to the war and become immune to Western influences. In this way, he can proceed ever more ruthlessly without fearing resistance at home. "It is clear that under the present conditions he will not be prepared for any peace that will carry into the future," write the German security experts. Withdrawal from occupied and annexed territories is unacceptable to him, they say. He does not see himself under pressure to end the war, either internally or externally, in the foreseeable future.

Putin's goals in Ukraine are not limited to the country. He is concerned with continued domination and dominance in a geographic area where state borders have no relevance, according to German analysts. By that, they presumably mean the territory of the former Soviet Union, whose collapse Putin once called "the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century."

The economic, financial, human and material resources for the war, they continue, would last for several more years. A collapse of the Russian economy with high unemployment and supply shortages is not foreseeable. For the people, the effects of the sanctions remain bearable; their grief is directed against the EU and the West, not against the regime. Putin is taking a high risk with the war, but this risk is "far from exhausted" for him.

And even in the event that he should come under personal pressure and there were forces in Russia that wanted to eliminate him, the German authors do not formulate an optimistic outlook. Somewhat circumstantially, they write: "A regime change from above and adherence to unconditional confrontation with the West seems, in all this, much more likely than a system change from below."

2. enough soldiers, qualitatively sufficient weapons

At the operational-tactical level, Ukraine is currently in a stalemate. After the successful Ukrainian offensives in the summer and fall, Russian forces have managed to stabilize the front. Mobilizations have been the main reason for this. In the meantime, Russia is said to have a similar troop strength in the war zone as Ukraine, with around 500,000 soldiers, albeit much less well trained and equipped.

In addition, there are large material reserves. These include thousands of battle tanks and infantry fighting vehicles, most of which are outdated but still operational. The Russians are also unlikely to run out of ammunition anytime soon. Military experts such as Austrian General Staff Officer Markus Reisner point out that Russian stocks have shrunk considerably, but some are still at a high level. This is evident, they say, in the artillery, whose ammunition stockpile Reisner estimates at 10 million shells. In addition, Putin has converted Russian industry to a war economy. According to Reisner, the annual output of artillery shells is now 3.4 million.

The NZZ also has a paper that shows how the equipment of Putin's army is assessed in NATO. "Contrary to a widespread narrative, the Russian armed forces do not primarily lack material of sufficient quality," it says. Rather, the Russians lack the "crucial enabling factors of effective military doctrine, functioning logistics and meaningful operational planning to achieve higher military effectiveness." In other words: If the Russians used their troops and materiel more wisely, they could be far more successful on the battlefield.

In return, they already have an advantage at the strategic level. This is borne out by British analyses of the effectiveness of Russian air strikes. According to them, the attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure now achieved a "strategic effect." By this is meant that the destruction has a detrimental effect on the Ukrainians' ability to wage war. Without electricity, for example, weapons factories, repair shops, food producers, and military hospitals cannot operate, or can only operate to a limited extent. When Russia again fired hundreds of missiles, drones, and cruise missiles at Ukraine on February 10, it was the thirteenth large-scale attack of its kind.

A memo on a recent NATO meeting indicates that Russia currently conducts "a large-scale attack with 500 to 600 missiles" every two weeks. Ukraine has admittedly adapted to this, recently intercepting 90 percent of the drones and 75 percent of the cruise missiles. Russia, however, is likely to continue the massive airstrikes regardless. Military experts such as Markus Reisner report that Iran continues to supply the Putin regime with missiles and drones on a continuous basis. As evidence, he cites the flight data of Russian transport aircraft on their way from Tehran to Moscow, the usual route of Iranian arms deliveries. They can be found regularly on the Internet.

3 The Elites Exercise "Destructive Creativity


In the past, foreign minister Sergei Lavrov, in addition to Putin, called the shots in Russian security policy. That is over. Lavrov and his ministry have been marginalized. Generals like Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of General Staff Valery Gerasimov, as well as hardliners like Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov and Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin, now call the shots. The authors of a new study by German security circles write that anyone who wants to rise in the Putin system or maintain his power can now only achieve this "through the prism of war". To do so, he would have to "display destructive creativity."

The German experts' further description of Russia's internal constitution also sounds gloomy and dystopian: Loyalty to the regime today is expressed through proposals for harsh action against the remnants of free expression of opinion. Anyone who opposes such proposals is considered a traitor. The country is radicalizing, and the question of loyalty and betrayal is becoming increasingly important. As was once the case in the Soviet Union, there is no shortage of "zealots," from Duma deputies to school principals, who blame the West for all evils. The core of Russian state ideology is the demonization of the West. This "anti-sapadism" (Sapad; German: Westen) has been practiced for a long time, but now the West is actually "portrayed as a threatening power that sends its weapons - even tanks with crosses - directly against Russian soldiers and virtually walls people in with sanctions and visa denials."

Especially among older people in the Russian provinces, the anti-Western messages catch on. They are particularly receptive to Putin's narrative of the "Great Patriotic War." This narrative is still the most effective unifying bond among Russians today. According to this narrative, the West is waging a war of annihilation against Russia, and its opponents are "Nazis. However, the German security experts summarize that for the majority of the population, food prices are the decisive factor. Although many people are now directly affected by partial mobilization, casualties and injuries, they continue to behave "basically apolitically. "The majority adapts its own behavior to what cannot be changed anyway, especially when it takes place many time zones away."

4. Putin's Russia is not isolated internationally

In their analysis, the German security experts point to an aspect that has received comparatively little attention from Western public opinion. In the two General Assemblies of the United Nations held so far, a large part of the members had condemned the war in Ukraine and called on Russia to end its aggression. At the same time, however, China, India and 33 other countries representing a majority of the world's population abstained from voting. Putin's Russia is thus receiving significantly more help than just from its direct supporters Belarus, North Korea and Iran.

Russia's war of aggression quickly condemned by many countries
Vote in the U.N. General Assembly condemning Russia's aggression in Ukraine on March 2.
https://i.postimg.cc/zD026YqD/1.png (https://postimages.org/)

More to the point, German analysts suggest some skepticism about a lasting global rejection of the Russian attack. Among the countries that condemned the war, they write, are states that see Russia as an occasionally useful and not overly threatening partner. These were states, they said, that were "tired of Western demarches" and wanted "the economic consequences of the distant war between Europeans off their backs." These included Brazil and South Africa, as well as other G-20 countries. In conclusion, "Moscow can hope to have time on its side in international politics, and it will act perfidiously to increase indirect pressure on us."
----------------------------------

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pohpW8EmRDY

[Dargo]

HOW PUTIN BLUNDERED INTO UKRAINE — THEN DOUBLED DOWN
At about 1am on February 24 last year, Sergei Lavrov, Russia’s
foreign minister, received a troubling phone call.

After spending months building up a more than 100,000-strong invasion
force on the border with Ukraine, Vladimir Putin had given the
go-ahead to invade.

The decision caught Lavrov completely by surprise. Just days earlier,
the Russian president had polled his security council for their
opinions on recognising two separatist statelets in the Donbas, an
industrial border region in Ukraine, at an excruciatingly awkward
televised session — but had left them none the wiser about his true
intentions.

Keeping Lavrov in the dark was not unusual for Putin, who tended to
concentrate his foreign policy decision-making among a handful of
close confidants, even when it undermined Russia’s diplomatic
efforts.

On this occasion, the phone call made Lavrov one of the very few
people who had any knowledge of the plan ahead of time. The
Kremlin’s senior leadership all found out about the invasion only
when they saw Putin declare a “special military operation” on
television that morning.

Later that day, several dozen oligarchs gathered at the Kremlin for a
meeting arranged only the day before, aware that the invasion would
trigger western sanctions that could destroy their empires.
“Everyone was completely losing it,” says a person who attended
the event.

While they waited, one of the oligarchs spied Lavrov exiting another
meeting and pressed him for an explanation about why Putin had decided
to invade. Lavrov had no answer: the officials he was there to see in
the Kremlin had known less about it than he did.

Stunned, the oligarch asked Lavrov how Putin could have planned such
an enormous invasion in such a tiny circle — so much so that most of
the senior officials at the Kremlin, Russia’s economic cabinet and
its business elite had not believed it was even possible.

“He has three advisers,” Lavrov replied, according to the
oligarch. “Ivan the Terrible. Peter the Great. And Catherine the
Great.”

Under Putin’s invasion plan, Russia’s troops were to seize Kyiv
within a matter of days in a brilliant, comparatively bloodless
blitzkrieg.

Instead, the war has proved to be a quagmire of historic proportions
for Russia. A year on, Putin’s invasion has claimed well over
200,000 dead and injured among Russia’s armed forces, according to
US and European officials; depleted its stock of tanks, artillery and
cruise missiles; and cut the country off from global financial markets
and western supply chains.

Nor has the fighting in Ukraine brought Putin any closer to his
vaguely defined goals of “demilitarising” and “de-Nazifying”
Kyiv. Though Russia now controls 17 per cent of Ukraine’s
internationally recognised territory, it has abandoned half of the
land it seized in the war’s early weeks — including a humiliating
retreat from Kherson, the only provincial capital under its control,
just weeks after Putin attempted to annex it.

But as the war rumbles on with no end in sight, Putin has given no
indication he intends to back down on his war efforts.

At his state-of-the-union address on Tuesday, Putin insisted the war
was “about the very existence of our country” and said the west
had forced him to invade Ukraine. “They’re the ones who started
the war. We are using force to stop it,” he said.

Even as the huge cost of the invasion to Russia becomes apparent to
him, Putin is more determined than ever to see it through, people who
know him say.

“The idea was never for hundreds of thousands of people to die.
It’s all gone horribly wrong,” a former senior Russian official
says. With the initial plan in tatters, Putin is searching for new
rationales to justify the war effort, insisting he had no choice but
to pursue the invasion by any means necessary, current and former
officials say.

“He tells people close to him, ‘It turns out we were completely
unprepared. The army is a mess. Our industry is a mess. But it’s
good that we found out about it this way, rather than when Nato
invades us,’” the former official adds.

The Financial Times spoke to six longtime Putin confidants as well as
people involved in Russia’s war effort, and current and former
senior officials in the west and Ukraine for this account of how Putin
blundered his way into the invasion — then doubled down rather than
admit his mistake. All of them spoke on the condition of anonymity to
discuss sensitive matters.

The people who know Putin describe a leader who has become even more
isolated since the start of the war. “Stalin was a villain, but a
good manager, because he couldn’t be lied to. But nobody can tell
Putin the truth,” says one. “People who don’t trust anyone start
trusting a very small number of people who lie to them.”

‘IF YOU DON’T AGREE WITH IT, YOU CAN LEAVE’

Last year was not the first time Putin had withheld plans of an
invasion from close advisers. When Russia seized Crimea from Ukraine
in 2014, he did not inform his own security council — instead on one
occasion gaming out the peninsula’s annexation with his defence
minister, Sergei Shoigu, and three top security officials all night
until 7am.

Initially, the advisers urged Putin against sending troops into
Crimea, according to a former senior Russian official and a former
senior US official. “Putin said, ‘This is a historic moment. If
you don’t agree with it, you can leave,’” the former Russian
official recalls.

When the west, fearful of escalating tensions to a point of no return
and jeopardising Europe’s economic ties with Russia, responded with
only a slap on the wrist, Putin was convinced he had made the right
decision, according to several people who know the president.

In the years after the 2014 invasion, Putin’s inner circle began to
shrink further as he became increasingly consumed with what he saw as
growing western threats to Russia’s security, the people say. His
isolation deepened when the Covid-19 pandemic began in 2020: for fear
they could infect a germaphobic Putin, even top officials were forced
to spend weeks at a time quarantining for a personal audience.

One of the few people to spend extended time with Putin was his friend
Yuri Kovalchuk, a former physicist who in the 1990s owned a dacha
adjoining the future president’s in the countryside outside St
Petersburg.

The secretive Kovalchuk — a banker and media mogul who the US says
manages Putin’s personal finances — almost never speaks in public
and did not reply to a request for comment.

People who know him say he shares a passion for Russian imperial
revanchism with his older brother Mikhail, a physicist whose
conspiracy theory-laden rants about US plans to develop super-soldiers
and “ethnic weapons” have, on occasion, popped up later in
Putin’s speeches.

During the height of the pandemic, Putin was largely cut off from
comparatively liberal, western-minded confidants who had previously
had his ear. Instead he spent the first few months in his residence at
Valdai, a bucolic town on a lake in northern Russia, essentially on
lockdown with the younger Kovalchuk, who inspired Putin to think of
his historic mission to assert Russia’s greatness, much as Peter the
Great had.

“He really believes all the stuff he says about sacrality and Peter
the Great. He thinks he will be remembered like Peter,” a former
senior official says.

Increasingly, Putin became fixated on Ukraine as his relations soured
with its energetic young president Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

One of Zelenskyy’s early moves was to curb the influence of Viktor
Medvedchuk, a close friend of Putin’s who headed the largest
opposition party in parliament. Whereas former president Petro
Poroshenko had used Medvedchuk as a crucial go-between with Moscow,
Zelenskyy’s team sought other intermediaries in the belief that his
influence on Putin had begun to wane.

But as Putin began drawing up plans for a possible invasion,
Medvedchuk insisted that Ukrainians would greet Russia’s forces with
open arms.

One part of the plan involved Viktor Yanukovych, a former president
who has been in Russian exile since fleeing the 2014 revolution
against him. He was to deliver a video message conferring legitimacy
on Medvedchuk — and anointing him to rule Ukraine with Russia’s
backing.

The vision was starkly at odds with political realities in Ukraine,
where the pro-Russian minority that Medvedchuk represented was vastly
outnumbered by those who despised him for his ties to Moscow. But it
proved seductive for Putin, who authorised payments through
Medvedchuk’s party to pay off local collaborators.

There was plenty of scepticism in Moscow. “If Medvedchuk says it’s
raining, you need to look out of the window — it’ll be sunny,”
says another former senior Russian official. “You have polls, you
have the secret services — how can you do anything serious based on
what Medvedchuk says?”

However, his assessment was backed up by the Federal Security Service,
or FSB, the successor agency to the KGB, which assured Putin victory
was certain — and paid large sums in bribes to officials in Ukraine
in the hope that this would guarantee success.

“The FSB had built a whole system of telling the boss what he wanted
to hear. There were huge budgets given out and corruption at every
level,” a western intelligence official says. “You tell the right
story up top and you skim off a bit for yourself.”

Dissenting voices in the SVR, Russia’s foreign intelligence agency,
and Russia’s general staff attempted to raise doubts. At the
security council meeting three days before the invasion, even Nikolai
Patrushev, security council secretary and Putin’s longest-standing
and most hawkish ally, suggested giving diplomacy another chance.

“He knew what a bad state the army was in and told Putin as much,”
a person close to the Kremlin says.

But just as he had in 2014, Putin overruled them, insisting he was
better informed.

“Putin was overconfident,” a former senior US official says. “He
knows better than his advisers just the way Hitler knew better than
his generals.”

The invasion began to unravel almost immediately after Putin set it
into motion. Valery Gerasimov, the chief of the general staff, had
drawn up a plan to seize the Hostomel airfield outside Kyiv, giving
Russian elite paratrooper squadrons a platform from which to attack
Zelenskyy’s government headquarters.

Some of Medvedchuk’s collaborators worked as spotters for the
advancing Russian forces, painting markings on buildings and highways
to direct the invaders to key locations. Others joined in the attack
on the government quarter. In southern Ukraine, they helped Russia
capture a large swath of territory including Kherson with little to no
resistance.

Most of Medvedchuk’s network, however, simply took the money and
ran, refusing to join in the invasion — or went straight to
Ukrainian authorities and warned them of the instructions they had
been given, according to a senior Ukrainian official and former US and
Russian officials.

Prewar predictions that Ukraine’s army would collapse had largely
been based on the assumption Russia’s air force would quickly
establish control of Ukraine’s skies.

Instead, amid widespread disarray among the invaders, Russia’s army
shot down a number of its own aircraft in the early days of the
invasion. As a result, it ran out of pilots with experience of combat
operations involving ground forces who were also prepared to fly,
according to two western officials and a Ukrainian official.

“It may not have been double digits, but it’s more than one or
two” Russian aircraft shot down by friendly fire, says the former
senior US official. “There was a lot of fratricide.”

He adds: “They may not have had pilots with combat experience who
were willing to fly over Ukraine and risk their necks in that crazy
environment.”

Vadym Skibitsky, deputy head of Ukrainian military intelligence, adds:
“It happened. From artillery units, from tanks, and we even saw it
from our intercepts of their conversations. They shot down their own
helicopters and they shot down their own planes.”

On the ground, Russia’s advances came at the price of huge
casualties and did not help it capture any major cities apart from
Kherson. By the end of March, the invading forces were in such a poor
state that they withdrew from most of central and north-eastern
Ukraine, which it portrayed as a “gesture of goodwill”.

The brilliant plan had proved a failure.

“Russia screwed up,” says Skibitsky. “Gerasimov initially
didn’t want to go in from all sides like he did. But the FSB and
everyone else convinced him everyone was waiting for him to show up
and there wouldn’t be any resistance.”

‘A UNIQUE WAR IN WORLD HISTORY’

As the consequences of his invasion became clear, Putin searched for a
scapegoat to hold responsible for the intelligence blunders
underpinning it. That person was Sergei Beseda, the head of the
FSB’s fifth directorate, which is responsible for foreign operations
and had laid the groundwork for the invasion by paying off Ukrainian
collaborators, according to two western officials.

Initially, Beseda was placed under house arrest, according to the
officials. His time in the doghouse, however, did not last long. Weeks
later, US officials arrived for a meeting on bilateral issues with
their Russian counterparts wondering, after news of Beseda’s
detention leaked to the Russian media, whether he would turn up and
how the Russians might explain where he was.

Instead, Beseda walked in and said, paraphrasing Mark Twain: “You
know, the rumours of my demise are greatly exaggerated,” according
to the former US official.

Beseda’s quick comeback demonstrated what advisers see as some of
Putin’s biggest weaknesses. The Russian president prizes loyalty
over competence; is obsessive about secrecy to a fault; and presides
over a bureaucratic culture where his underlings tell him what he
wants to hear, according to people who know him.

The steady drumbeat of propaganda around the war and Putin’s demands
for loyalty from the elite have only increased the incentive for
advisers to tell him what he wants to hear, the people say.

“He’s of sound mind. He’s reasonable. He’s not crazy. But
nobody can be an expert on everything. They need to be honest with him
and they are not,” another longtime Putin confidant says. “The
management system is a huge problem. It creates big gaps in his
knowledge and the quality of the information he gets is poor.”

For many in the elite, the stream of lies is a survival tactic: most
of Putin’s presidential administration and economic cabinet have
told friends they oppose the war but feel they are powerless to do
anything about it. “It’s really a unique war in world history,
when all the elite is against it,” says a former senior official.

A small number, including former climate special representative
Anatoly Chubais, have quietly resigned. One former senior official who
now heads a major state-run company went so far as to apply for an
Israeli passport while still in his post, and started making plans to
leave the country, according to two people close to him.

As the war continues to sputter, the scale of Russia’s
miscalculation has begun to dawn on Putin, prompting him to seek out
more information from people at lower levels, people who know him say.
A cohort of ultranationalist bloggers who are critical of the military
establishment have held at least two closed-door meetings with Putin
since last summer; some were guests of honour at a ceremony to annex
the four Ukrainian provinces in September.

On occasion, Putin has used information from his informal channels to
trip up senior officials in public. Last month, Denis Manturov, a
deputy prime minister, told Putin the government had signed contracts
with Russian aviation factories to produce new aircraft, one of the
industries worst hit by the difficulty of procuring components under
the sanctions. Putin replied: “I know the factories don’t have
contracts, the directors told me. What are you playing the fool for?
When will the contracts be ready? Here’s what I’m talking about:
the factory directors say they don’t have contracts. And you’re
telling me it’s all on paper.”

Putin’s newfound scepticism, however, is limited by his
unwillingness to admit the invasion was a mistake in the first place,
the people say. Some of the liberal officials who oppose the war have
attempted to convince him to end it by pointing out the economic
damage the sanctions are likely to wreak on Russia’s economy.

But Putin tells them “he has already factored in the discounts”,
another former senior Russian official says. “He says, ‘We pay a
huge price, I get it. We underestimated how difficult it could be.’
But how can you convince a crazy man? His brain will collapse if he
realises it was a mistake,” the person adds. “He doesn’t trust
anyone.”

Asked about the discrepancy between the defence ministry’s
statements and complaints from fighters at the front about poor
equipment in December, Putin paraphrased a character from his
favourite TV show, the Soviet espionage drama _Seventeen Moments of
Spring_: “You can’t trust anyone. Only me.” Then he chuckled.

EXISTENTIAL FIGHT CONTINUES

Putin’s state-of-the-union address on Tuesday demonstrated his
determination to “solve the tasks before us step by step” as he
insisted Russia’s war would go on until a victorious end.

The remarks underscored how existential the fight has become for Putin
as the threat he sees from a hostile west consumes him. Putin spent
comparatively little time discussing Ukraine itself, instead focusing
his ire on the US, which he accused of trying to “destroy” Russia
and use “national traitors” to break it up.

The speech marked his first return to nuclear rhetoric since last
autumn, when he made veiled warnings to “use all the means at our
disposal” in defence of Russia’s conquests and suggested Russia
could carry out a nuclear first strike.

Those threats worried western countries sufficiently that the US, UK,
and France, Nato’s three nuclear powers, delivered a joint message
to Russia vowing to retaliate with conventional weapons if Putin
decided to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine, according to the former US
and Russian officials.

According to two people close to the Kremlin, Putin has already gamed
out the possibility of using a nuclear weapon in Ukraine and has come
to the conclusion that even a limited strike would do nothing to
benefit Russia.

“He has no reason to press the button. What is the point of bombing
Ukraine? You detonate a tactical nuke on Zaporizhzhia,” says a
former Russian official, referring to the Ukrainian-held capital of a
province Putin has claimed for Russia. “Everything is totally
irradiated, you can’t go in there, and it’s supposedly Russia
anyway, so what was the point?”

Instead, Putin said Russia would suspend its participation in New
Start, the last remaining arms treaty with the US governing the
countries’ nuclear arsenals. The suspension was the most concrete
step Putin has taken on the escalation ladder since the war began:
Jens Stoltenberg, Nato’s secretary-general, said “the whole arms
control architecture has been dismantled.”

This time, however, Putin made no threats to actually use nuclear
weapons — which analysts interpreted as a sign he had begun to
realise Russia’s limitations.

“The war’s been going on for a year. Putin has been saying he’s
fighting the west, not Ukraine, for a long time. You can’t just keep
talking about it, you need to take steps to demonstrate something
tangible,” says Abbas Gallyamov, a former Putin speechwriter.
“Otherwise in his paradigm it’s going to look like the west is
wiping the floor with Russia and [he] can’t say anything in
response.”

Putin’s calculation, people close to the Kremlin say, is that Russia
is more committed to the war than the west is to Ukraine, and
resilient enough to see out the economic pain. Senior Republicans have
openly questioned how long the US can go on supporting Ukraine to the
same extent and the party retains a realistic chance of capturing the
White House in 2024.

In ramping up military support for Ukraine, western officials are
mindful anything less than a crushing defeat for Russia risks failing
to deal with the problem.

“We need to ask ourselves: How do we want to this end up? Do we want
to end up in a situation when Putin will survive and he will have more
time?” says an EU foreign minister. “Something like the lull
between the first and second world war.”

Putin, by contrast, is betting that he can see through that strategic
turbulence, people who know him say. Instead of insisting that most
Russians are unaffected by the war, as the Kremlin did in its early
months when life largely went on as normal, Putin has adopted
mobilisation rhetoric, urging all of society to unite behind the
invasion.

The scenes at a patriotic rally on Wednesday underscored how far Putin
had come down that road in just a few years. At Moscow’s Luzhniki
Stadium, where the World Cup final was held five years ago, a soldier
rapped about “the difficult hour we did not anticipate” alongside
Russia’s military choir and the parents of people killed fighting
for Russia made speeches to a huge flag-waving crowd. The rally’s
hosts welcomed a group of children “saved” by the Russian army in
Mariupol, a city in south-eastern Ukraine it razed to the ground last
spring.

Then Putin appeared, shook hands with a select group of soldiers, and
told Russians to take inspiration from them. “The motherland is our
family,” Putin said. “The people standing up here are deciding to
defend the most valuable and dear thing they have — our family. They
are fighting heroically, courageously, bravely.”

Russian independent media reported that tens of thousands of state
employees and students were paid small sums or forced to attend. The
fact the Kremlin evidently did not think it could fill a stadium to
support Putin without forcing people to go suggests officials know how
difficult mobilising society around the war will be.

“Even in his own mind, he realises it’s not going to happen soon.
It’s going to be a costly, lengthy process,” the former US
official says. “He’s got, he thinks, the time — he’s 70 —
and the resources, the oil and gas money to achieve it. And that’s
what he’ll be remembered for: gathering the Russian lands the way
Peter the Great did.”

But the alternative, one former senior Kremlin official says, may be
too difficult for Putin to contemplate.

“It’s scary to think what happens if this ends in a disastrous
defeat for Russia,” the former official says. “That means
disastrous mistakes were made and the man behind it needs to exit this
life, whether it’s via a bullet, cyanide, or something else. And if
there’s no justice in this world, then nobody gets to have it,” he
adds.

“It’s like when two chess players are playing. One of them is
losing and bashes the other one over the head with the chessboard.
Does that mean he won? No, it’s just an act of desperation.”

_Additional reporting by Henry Foy in Brussels and Anastasia Stognei
in Riga_ https://www.ft.com/content/80002564-33e8-48fb-b734-44810afb7a49

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZO_zNAHiJqE

[Rockstar]

Mariupol Strikes Raise Questions About Possible New Ukrainian Long-Range Weapons

Mariupol is about 50 miles from the front lines, which is just outside of the range of Ukraine’s HIMARS or M270 systems.

BY
HOWARD ALTMAN
|
UPDATED FEB 22, 2023 7:31 PM

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/mariupol-strikes-raise-questions-about-possible-new-ukrainian-long-range-weapons

For the second night in a row, the city of Mariupol, fully captured by Russia in May, was rocked by explosions, according to the Mariupol City Council Telegram channel.
Far behind the front lines, the attack on Mariupol raises questions about whether Ukraine is using a new type of munition, either provided by allies like the U.S. or domestically produced.

Explosions were heard in the Kalmius district," the Mariupol City Council Telegram channel reported Wednesday night local time. "Meanwhile, two explosions are reported at 10:51 p.m. and 10:53 p.m. in the area of the plant named after Ilyich. We hope that our Defenders will continue to hit the positions of the Russian occupiers."
These latest attacks follow about a dozen strikes on Mariupol Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, according to Ukrainian Telegram channels.

“So far, 11 explosions are known [to have occured] in the Russian-occupied city,” the Mariupol City Council Telegram reported Wednesday morning. “The first explosion occurred at [10:33 P.M. local time]. “There is preliminary information about two hits - in the AS-2 area (Central district) and Stan-3000 (Kalmius district). Probably in places where enemy forces are concentrated.”
The Telegram channel of Mariupol mayoral advisor Petro Andriushchenko later confirmed a strike on the Kalmius district.
“We also confirm the liquidation of two fuel depots at the bases of the occupiers in the Kalmius district,” he wrote Wednesday.
The Ukrainian Ukrinform media outlet reported that Russian military targets at the airport and a nearby industrial plant were also hit.

“It was confirmed that an enemy ammunition depot at the airport and an invaders’ base at the Illich Iron and Steel Works Plant were struck,” according to Ukrinform. “On the morning of February 22, a powerful explosion rang out in Mariupol. Explosions were also recorded near the urban-type settlement of Talakivka in the city’s Kalmiuskyi district. Enemy warehouses located on the territory of the seaport were struck.”

Video emerged on social media purporting to be Russian air defenses being activated over Mariupol.

The extent of the damage, however, is unclear. No images have emerged on social media showing any new destruction in a city that was devastated by months of intense fighting that culminated with the ending of the siege of the Azovstal steel plant.

The local Telegram channels do not say what was used on either Tuesday or Wednesday to hit those targets, which are about 80 kilometers (nearly 50 miles) away from the nearest Ukrainian forces. That is just outside of the precision-guided munitions - that can hit targets out to around 43 miles (70 kilometers) - fired by M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, or HIMARS and M270 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS) provided to Ukraine.
While it is possible Ukrainian forces could have pushed a HIMARS or M270 closer to Mariupol for the strikes, the distance from the front lines has led to speculation that Ukrainian troops used a new, longer-range munition.

On Tuesday, before any of these strikes took place, we reported that the pro-Russian Rybar Telegram channel claimed (without providing proof or saying how they knew) that "at least one" Ukrainian HIMARS crew in the Donetsk Oblast city of Bogatyr “received" the Ground Launched Small Diameter Bomb (GLSDB).
With a range of around 94 miles, or 150 kilometers, the GLSDB can reach targets more than twice as far away as the munitions fired by the HIMARS and M270 and well within reach of Mariupol.
The Pentagon on Tuesday deferred questions about whether the GLSDB has been deployed by Ukrainians to Ukraine, which has not commented publicly.
The Ukrainian General Staff said only that Ukraine’s air force had launched eight attacks on the temporary bases of Russian troops and two strikes on the positions of Russia’s antiaircraft missile systems, The New York Times reported.

The New Voice of Ukraine raised the possibility that a domestically produced weapon was used to hit Mariupol.
“Other Russian sources later said that the weapon used may have been Ukraine’s Vilkha-M heavy multiple launch rocket system (based on the Soviet Smerch system) which is reported to have a range of 130 kilometers [about 81 miles],” the news outlet reported Wednesday. “Like HIMARS, Vilkha fires guided rockets, but guidance is independent of the GPS satellite navigation system.”

In August, we first raised the question of whether Ukraine was developing its own ballistic missiles.

In addition to rocket munitions, Ukraine has also used long-range kamikaze drones to hit long-distance targets both inside Russia itself and the Crimean peninsula it has occupied since 2014. And they have also hit targets with sabotage raids and through the use of partisans.
Regardless of what hit Mariupol, that it would be a target now after months of occupation by the Russians is significant.

Ukraine has made no secret of its interest in launching a new offensive toward Crimea, which would have the added effect of cutting off Russian forces now in the Donbas from the peninsula.

That’s something we discussed last week with Ben Hodges, a retired Army lieutenant general who commanded U.S. Army Europe:
The attack appeared to shake up Russian milblogger Ivan Utenkov, who said he was surprised by the explosions, which he surmised were caused by "some new munitions."
"The enemy has definitely started something and the next couple of days will be hell in that area," he said.

Whether the attack on Mariupol is the beginning of an operation to shape the battlefield remains unknown. But it is something we will certainly be keeping an eye on.

Contact the author: howard@thewarzone.com

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kTa7ckXBK8U

[Dargo]

Mariupol Strikes Raise Questions About Possible New Ukrainian Long-Range Weapons

Mariupol is about 50 miles from the front lines, which is just outside of the range of Ukraine’s HIMARS or M270 systems.

BY
HOWARD ALTMAN
|
UPDATED FEB 22, 2023 7:31 PM

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/mariupol-strikes-raise-questions-about-possible-new-ukrainian-long-range-weaponsProbable Ukraine used the Tupolev Tu-141s, ex-Soviet antiques that last saw front-line use in the 1980s, flying photo-reconnaissance missions for the Soviet air force. Ukrainian forces used to strike two Russian bomber bases 300 miles inside Russia with this drone.

https://i.postimg.cc/LsFZCY2s/soviet-Tu-141.jpg

[Jimbuna]

Great Britain created secret group to buy Soviet-style artillery shells for Ukraine, - New York Times

Last year, the Ministry of Defense of Great Britain created a secret group that agreed on the purchase of artillery shells of Soviet caliber 122 millimeters for the needs of Ukraine.

This is stated in the material of The New York Times, reports Censor.NET with reference to "Euro Integration".

According to the newspaper, a secret task force created by the British Ministry of Defense was engaged in obtaining Soviet-style ammunition. As the war in Ukraine progressed, this task became increasingly difficult, as large suppliers ran out of supplies.

In June 2022, Britain signed an agreement to purchase 40,000 artillery shells and missiles manufactured at Pakistan's state-owned factories. According to the terms of the agreement, Britain had to pay an intermediary from Romania - the company Romtehnica - for the purchase of Pakistani weapons.

In the official documents of the agreement, it was stated that weapons would be transferred from Pakistan to Great Britain, but there was no mention of Ukraine. But Romtehnica told the NYT that the deal fell through after the Pakistani supplier failed to deliver the ammunition.

According to the article, after the beginning of the full-scale invasion of Russia in February 2022, Ukraine and its allies began to buy Soviet-style weapons "everywhere they could." Among other things, state-owned Ukrainian companies turned to brokers in the US and other countries for tanks, helicopters, planes and mortars.

NYT interlocutors said that both Britain and the US financed the deals using third countries and brokers in cases where the producing countries did not want to publicly admit that they were providing arms to Ukraine.

The decrease in ammunition stocks causes great concern in the EU, as tens of thousands of them are used up every day on the Ukrainian and Russian sides. Although Ukraine uses ammunition more efficiently, it still consumes it faster than Europe is able to produce. Currently, the USA and the EU are trying to increase production both to supply Ukraine and to replenish their own reserves. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3401766

[Jimbuna]

UK PM Rishi Sunak leads a national minute's silence, a year after Russia's full-scale invasion.

This comes as King Charles condemns Russia's "full scale attack" and praises the "remarkable courage" of the Ukrainian people.

Ceremonies are taking place across Ukraine including Bucha - where Russian forces were accused of committing crimes against humanity.

"We endured. We were not defeated," President Zelensky says, vowing Ukraine will do everything to win.

The conflict has become the worst in Europe since the World War Two. The UN passed a resolution late on Thursday condemning Russia.

Meanwhile, Russia's former president, Dmitry Medvedev says his country's military should push Ukrainian forces back to the Polish border.

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PgsBucrWkM8

[Jimbuna]

Total combat losses of Russian Federation since beginning of war - about 146,820 people (+970 per day), 3,363 tanks, 2,363 artillery systems, 6,600 armored vehicles. INFOGRAPHICS

Losses of the Russian occupiers as of the morning of February 24, 2023, a year since the full-scale invasion, are approximately 146,820.

This is reported by Censor.NET with reference to the press center of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

As noted, the total combat losses of the enemy from 24.02.22 to 24.02.23 are approximately:

personnel - about 146,820 (+970) people were eliminated,
tanks - 3363 (+13) units,
armored combat vehicles - 6600 (+7) units,
artillery systems - 2363 (+11) units,
MLRS - 474 (+3) units,
air defense equipment - 247 (+3) units,
aircraft - 299 (+0) units,
helicopters - 287 (+0) units,
Operational-tactical UAV - 2033 (+4),
cruise missiles - 873 (+0),
warships/boats -18 (+0) units,
automotive equipment and tank trucks - 5224 (+9) units,
special equipment - 229 (+1). Source: https://censor.net/en/n3401820

[Jimbuna]

White House criticized China’s "peace plan".

The administration of American President Joe Biden reminded that the war in Ukraine could end even tomorrow, as it is a "war of choice" of the Russian dictator Vladimir Putin.

This was stated by Jake Sullivan, US President's National Security Adviser, Censor.NET reports with reference to RBC-Ukraine.

"Well, my first reaction to that is that they can stop at the first point, which is respect for the sovereignty of all nations," he said.

In his opinion, the war in Ukraine "could end tomorrow" if Russia stops attacking Ukraine and withdraws its troops.

"Ukraine did not attack Russia, NATO did not attack Russia, the United States did not attack Russia. This was a war of choice that Putin started," Sullivan added.

As Censor.NET reported, on the anniversary of Russia's attack on Ukraine, the Chinese Foreign Ministry published its "position on the political settlement of the Ukrainian crisis.

The head of the "Servant of the People" faction, David Arahamia, called China's peace plan as offering an unacceptable position and accused Beijing of wanting to play along with Moscow. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3401877

Chinese Embassy clarified details of "peace plan"

China is ready to continue making efforts together with the international community to promote a political settlement of the "Ukrainian crisis" based on respect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all states in accordance with the principles of the UN Charter.

This was reported in the Chinese embassy in Ukraine, Censor.NET informs with reference to Ukrinform.

The embassy emphasized that this is exactly what is being said in "China's position on the political settlement of the Ukrainian crisis", published on the anniversary of the beginning of the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine.

The Chinese embassy noted that the document reflects "the consistent, firm, objective and fair position of the Chinese side and actively promotes peace negotiations and plays a constructive role in encouraging the resolution of the crisis."

"The Chinese side is ready to continue making efforts together with the international community to contribute to the promotion of a political settlement of the Ukrainian crisis," the Chinese embassy emphasized.

According to Chinese diplomats, the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all states should be respected, the goals and principles of the UN Charter should be adhered to, the rational concerns of all countries in the field of security should be responsibly treated, and efforts that contribute to the peaceful settlement of crises should be supported.

As Censor.NET reported, on the anniversary of Russia's attack on Ukraine, the Chinese Foreign Ministry published its "position on the political settlement of the Ukrainian crisis.

The head of the "Servant of the People" faction, David Arahamia, called China's peace plan as offering an unacceptable position and accused Beijing of wanting to play along with Moscow. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3401874

Russia has already lost war. Putin will not capture Kyiv and will not strike with nuclear weapons, - White House

The Russian occupiers have already lost the war against Ukraine and will not be able to capture Kyiv.

Jacob Sullivan, US President Joe Biden's national security adviser, said this in an interview with CNN, Censor.NET reports with reference to Liga.net.

According to him, a year after the beginning of the great war, Ukraine has already prevented Russia from realizing its main goal - to seize Kyiv.

"Russia's goal in this war was to wipe Ukraine off the face of the earth, capture the capital and destroy Ukraine, absorb it into Russia," Sullivan said.

He noted that the Russians will not be able to do this as long as Ukraine resists and the United States supports it.

Biden's adviser also said that Washington does not see any changes in Russia's nuclear position.

"We don't see any movements in the Russian nuclear forces that make us think that something has fundamentally changed compared to how things were during the past year," he summarized. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3401885

[Skybird]

The Chinese "peace plan" is a vague, nebulous, inconcrete, cloudy, bloated gibberish that, despite all these dubious qualities, cannot hide the fact that it equates the victim with the perpetrator and does not recognize the absolute dysbalance of injustice and despair that the Russian war of choice (it never was a war of need, never) has caused. The perpetrator is rehabilitated, the victim is practically ignored, even discredited, in that the injustice that was and continues to be done to it is not recognized as such, instead there is the reference to the interests of the perpetrator. He is to be given the opportunity to reassert himself.

Exactly the kind of wordy cynical drivel I've come to expect from the Chinese, and a perfect expression of how China defines political power and defines itself. Why Zelensky is so pleased, I don't understand - perhaps he should have finished reading it and not just cherry-pick the phrase "territorial integrity". Because where he may imply it means Ukrainian territory, I think they instead refer to Russian territorial integrity - and that includes five Oblasten in Ukraine the Russians have occupied and declared illegally as their own. So what is he liking in this document?

Into the bin with it, I say. The Chinese are no neutral mediators in this, they have their own interest to justfiy their brutal ways towards the ethnic minorities they suppress and genocide themselves, plus the Tibet and Taiwan issue and their bullying in the south chinese sea. If they would sing the Ukraine's song, they would put their own policy at doubt. Also, they do not want Russia to get too weak from this war, they want it as an ally in their confrontation with the West.

:down:

[Skybird]

FOCUS writes:
--------------------------
Almost the whole world is behind Ukraine? Far from it

Behind the noble statements of Baerbock, Biden and others, a vast country is opening up, populated by pacifists, sanctions boycotters and hard-core political opponents of Ukraine. Is solidarity with Ukraine eroding?

Last night in New York, the UN General Assembly again called for a withdrawal of Russian troops by a large majority. 141 of the 193 member states voted in favor of a resolution to that effect. Earlier, in an emotional speech, our Foreign Minister appealed for support for Ukraine, which is fighting for its freedom: "Each and every one of us here today has the opportunity to contribute to this peace plan. By telling the aggressor to stop. "

Just days ago, in a risky venture for him personally, Joe Biden visited Kiev by train and assured the head of the government there, Selenskyj, of his solidarity. "You remind us that freedom is priceless. We will be by your side, Mr. President: for as long as it takes. "

The inconvenient truth is this: It is getting lonely for Ukraine and its wartime president

EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is in no less combative mood as she presented the new package of sanctions against Russia: "Together we are tightening the noose around Russia. "

Words can change the world, it is often said. But they can also form a smokescreen that makes it difficult for contemporary witnesses to see through the power relations that lie behind them. So then, on the anniversary of the Russian invasion, wish and reality are out of sight in the fog of words. "In the beginning was the word - in the end the phrase," the Polish poet Stanisław Jerzy Lec once said.

For the uncomfortable truth is this: It is getting lonely for Ukraine and its war president. Behind the noble statements of Baerbock, Biden and others, a vast country is opening up, populated by pacifists, sanctions boycotters and hard-core political opponents of Ukraine. And all three groups, which makes the development so dangerous for Ukraine, are at home in the democratic states of this world.

1. the profiteers

There are still states and companies that buy from Russia for economic reasons - including sanctioned goods.

Poland, for example, continues to buy Russian oil even after the oil embargo. In early February, Maciej Małecki, state secretary at the Ministry of State Property, admitted that Poland continues to buy ten percent of its oil - 20,000 tons per month - from Russia. He said the contract with Russian gas producer Tatneft could not be terminated or compensation payments would be due. Solidarity by class.

Pipelines: Europe continues to buy

To date, there is no EU gas embargo. Although gas no longer flows through Nordstream 1 and 2, Russia delivers its gas via other routes. The Transgas and Turkstream pipelines are active, and the Russians are also heavily involved in the liquids business. Around 500 million cubic meters of pipeline gas per week and 1500 cubic meters of LNG per month are currently imported by the EU. The top buyers include France, Spain and Belgium, according to price information service ICS.

Sanctioned goods from Russia - for example cement, caviar, gold, plastics and wood - also continue to find their way, including to Germany. Robert Habeck's Ministry of Economics is now admitting for the first time that the sanctions offer many loopholes that are used by states and companies. "It is obvious that sanctions are being circumvented here. "

Europe buys Russian gas

India is the typical beneficiary, as this world's largest democracy seized the opportunity to import cheaply the quantities of Russian oil and gas freed up by Western restraint. Unlike Poland, India cannot even bring itself to clearly condemn the Ukraine war. The country is trying to capitalize on the conflict.

2. The pacifist-minded

All over the world, a pacifist sentiment has spread, ostensibly promoting a quick and non-violent end to the war, but with it Ukraine's surrender and lack of freedom.

The Manifesto for Peace, initiated by Sahra Wagenknecht and Alice Schwarzer, gathers people like Antje Vollmer, Margot Käßmann, but also conservative politicians like Peter Gauweiler, who do not want to deliver any more weapons to Ukraine and thus leave it defenseless to Russian aggression: "We call on the German Chancellor to stop the escalation of arms deliveries."

3. the political opponents

This group is the most dangerous for Ukraine because it is particularly active in the U.S., attacking Ukraine's main sponsor, the government in Washington. Donald Trump's conservative challenger, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, unequivocally opposes military aid from Joe Biden's administration. "Just saying it's an open-ended blank check, that is not acceptable."

Continuing, "I and many Americans think to ourselves, okay, he's very concerned about the borders on the other side of the world. He hasn't done anything to secure our own border here at home. "

Donald Trump doesn't want to miss this train, which is on a high-speed collision course with Washington. In a fundraising appeal to finance his campaign, he promotes himself as a fiery opponent of further military support for the Selenskyj government.

He writes, "In an economic climate as inflation carves up citizens in the U.S., Biden is sending taxpayer money to fund pensions to Kiev. "

Further, "He loves to send our taxpayer money abroad to secure other nations' borders. " His conclusion, "Biden puts other peoples before his own. "

It's about interests, not just justice

Bottom line: public support for Ukraine is eroding. The country's supporters must do what they have so far failed to do adequately - explain themselves and their motives. Governments owe accountability to their taxpayers, as well as to their military personnel, for the investments they are making here and the risks they are taking.

Without that persuasion, the Ukraine war, just as, for that matter, the Vietnam War once was, could fail because of a lack of support in those states that are funding this war on the Western side.

The belief that the Ukrainians' struggle for freedom is self-explanatory is a child's faith. It is about interests, not just justice. The West is not a supernatural place either. Or to quote Polish lyricist Stanisław Jerzy Lec again, "Those who seek heaven on earth have slept in geography class. "
--------------------------------

[Skybird]

Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung:
-----------------------------------
"The Russians are in our networks"

Cyber defense specialists warn of Russian hacking attacks. They represent a new type of digital warfare. German companies and government agencies may be targeted even more than they already are.

Germany is under constant digital fire. The federal government in Berlin, Frankfurt-based financial institutions, Munich-based defense contractors, the taxpayers' association, energy providers and humanitarian aid organizations - they all have to defend themselves against cyberattacks. Just recently, hackers took down the websites of German airports using relatively simple methods. Their attacks are well camouflaged, but in the search for the perpetrators, eyes are turning toward Russia.

Several cybersecurity experts interviewed by F.A.Z. and a new analysis by Internet company Google report a new type of digital warfare and see a "politicization of attacks." Germany is one of the countries increasingly targeted by Russian-based hacker groups. The main target is Ukraine, where, according to Google, cyberattacks already skyrocketed last fall and where the Defense Ministry in particular was attacked.

The vice president of the German Federal Intelligence Service (BND) had already warned last summer at the HPI security conference in Potsdam: "Russia is in our networks. China is in our networks." Now, IBM security experts declare in their X-Force security report that Russia is massively arming itself on the digital front. And Google, in its new "Fog of War" analysis, describes how Moscow is pulling out all the stops to do so, recruiting private hacker gangs and harnessing them to the cart of the GRU military intelligence agency.

IT security companies such as German firms Link11 or Avira and U.S. technology groups also repeatedly report masses of Russian cyberattacks. "We're seeing a kind of politicization of attacks at the moment," says Marc Korthaus of Berlin-based security firm Sys11. With the German government's decision to supply battle tanks to Ukraine, the number of attacks on German targets skyrocketed. "But these were not sophisticated and particularly sophisticated attacks," he explains. "And that worries us. Because these attacks are little more than a warning signal - and we have to take that seriously. So we should look closely at what was going on in the networks there before the actual attack on Ukraine." That's because relatively simple attacks - like the recent one in Germany - were followed by technically smart attacks.

Alexander Vuckevic, director of Protection Labs at IT security firm Avira, says, "Every time Europe tightened sanctions against Russia or pushed aid to Ukraine, hackers massaged their attacks. The Bundestag voted in favor of tank deliveries - a wave of attacks swept over German IT systems. At the security conference in Munich, Moscow's invasion was pilloried - hackers attacked NATO's IT systems. Bulgaria sided with Ukraine - the Russian Killnet group attacked the government's computers in Sofia.

Christian Dörr, professor of cybersecurity at the Hasso Plattner Institute (HPI) in Potsdam, says, "Cyber war exists." It's just showing up in a different way than we thought. Among other things, he says, the Russians have learned lessons from their "Viasat hack." A year ago, hackers had attacked the communications satellites of U.S. operator Viasat used by Ukraine - and also hit data links of German wind turbines. In 2017, the Russians had caused heavy collateral damage with the Not-Petya Trojan attack. The malware first attacked Ukrainian banks, but then spread uncontrollably throughout the global data networks - and thus also found its way onto the computers of companies such as Beiersdorf and Maersk.

Today, the Russians are trying their hand at digital precision attacks, says HPI security specialist Dörr. According to analyses by Google parent company Alphabet, Moscow is having cyber groups attack selected targets with customized software in order to prevent digital viruses, worms or Trojans from spilling over into the vastness of the Internet. Russian cyber mercenary groups such as Frozenlake, Pusha or Krymsky Bridge can now draw on arsenals of digital weapons. Their scattering effect in the digital space can be limited, but that does not make them any less dangerous.

For example, the Ukraine war continues to put even experienced cyber specialists like Sandra Joyce in dicey situations. Joyce heads global threat intelligence at Mandiant, an IT security company that was just bought by Google's cloud division. The company is known for its rapid digital response force. When hackers from Russia attacked Ukrainian businesses or government agencies and the Mandiant team provided first aid, communications might suddenly cut off, Joyce says. "Time and time again, the power went out because of bombings, or the contacts had to go into the bunker."

That's because the cyberattacks have a system. The Russians precisely prepared the majority of attacks by their artillery, infantry and tank forces through the use of malware in cyberspace. They not only bomb power plants or clinics, they also target computing and data centers. "In the first four months of the war alone, we've seen more destructive attacks than in the previous eight years," Joyce says.

Unlike ransomware attacks on civilian targets, in which hackers penetrate their victims' systems, hijack their data, encrypt it and release it only after paying a ransom, war hackers use special programs to erase their enemies' data. The procedure: on hacked computers, the hard drive is erased. The goal: maximum chaos. Programs such as Paywipe or Caddywiper were developed years ago for this purpose. The Russians first tested these data destroyers after the occupation of Crimea. Google calls them simply "destructive."

The key messages of Google's just-released "Fog of War" report are: Moscow wants to control the virtual battlefields in order to gain decisive advantages in the real combat regions. To this end, it is pursuing "aggressive, multi-layered strategies. These ranged from simple data bombs to digital precession weapons; from simple DDoS attacks that simply collapse foreign computers with data garbage to data-killing destruction programs.

Moscow's hackers had been attacking Ukraine with these long before Russian troops invaded last year. To bolster this network force, Russia mobilized additional gangs from the ranks of cybercriminals. Thus, it built up a small army of cyber mercenaries. "The lines between state hacker groups and cybercriminals are blurring," says Mandiant's Joyce as well.

The capabilities of these units should definitely not be underestimated, says Christian Dörr of HPI. They can camouflage their attacks almost perfectly, make them very flexible, and ramp them up or down at any time. After all, the Russian state hackers also use digital platforms, forums and resources of well-known cybergangs from the darknet - and that's where a lot of sensitive data of large German companies is now circulating.
-----------------------------------------

[Skybird]

They woke up in Kyiv. This morning, German media rewproted that Zelesn ky had liked and supported the Chinese so-called "peace plan". These reports now are outdated, it seems, replaced by reports from since this afternoon that Kyiv now criticises it.

---------------------
Germany says it will deliver 4 more Leopard-2 tanks - whether these are additional to the already held back reserve of 5 tanks additional to the 14 so far planned deliveries, or are 4 from those mentioned 5 tanks that are handed over instead of being kept in reserve in Germany, is not clear to me.

[Dargo]

FOCUS writes:
--------------------------
Almost the whole world is behind Ukraine? Far from it

Behind the noble statements of Baerbock, Biden and others, a vast country is opening up, populated by pacifists, sanctions boycotters and hard-core political opponents of Ukraine. Is solidarity with Ukraine eroding?

Last night in New York, the UN General Assembly again called for a withdrawal of Russian troops by a large majority. 141 of the 193 member states voted in favor of a resolution to that effect. Earlier, in an emotional speech, our Foreign Minister appealed for support for Ukraine, which is fighting for its freedom: "Each and every one of us here today has the opportunity to contribute to this peace plan. By telling the aggressor to stop. "

Just days ago, in a risky venture for him personally, Joe Biden visited Kiev by train and assured the head of the government there, Selenskyj, of his solidarity. "You remind us that freedom is priceless. We will be by your side, Mr. President: for as long as it takes. "

The inconvenient truth is this: It is getting lonely for Ukraine and its wartime president

EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is in no less combative mood as she presented the new package of sanctions against Russia: "Together we are tightening the noose around Russia. "

Words can change the world, it is often said. But they can also form a smokescreen that makes it difficult for contemporary witnesses to see through the power relations that lie behind them. So then, on the anniversary of the Russian invasion, wish and reality are out of sight in the fog of words. "In the beginning was the word - in the end the phrase," the Polish poet Stanisław Jerzy Lec once said.

For the uncomfortable truth is this: It is getting lonely for Ukraine and its war president. Behind the noble statements of Baerbock, Biden and others, a vast country is opening up, populated by pacifists, sanctions boycotters and hard-core political opponents of Ukraine. And all three groups, which makes the development so dangerous for Ukraine, are at home in the democratic states of this world.

1. the profiteers

There are still states and companies that buy from Russia for economic reasons - including sanctioned goods.

Poland, for example, continues to buy Russian oil even after the oil embargo. In early February, Maciej Małecki, state secretary at the Ministry of State Property, admitted that Poland continues to buy ten percent of its oil - 20,000 tons per month - from Russia. He said the contract with Russian gas producer Tatneft could not be terminated or compensation payments would be due. Solidarity by class.

Pipelines: Europe continues to buy

To date, there is no EU gas embargo. Although gas no longer flows through Nordstream 1 and 2, Russia delivers its gas via other routes. The Transgas and Turkstream pipelines are active, and the Russians are also heavily involved in the liquids business. Around 500 million cubic meters of pipeline gas per week and 1500 cubic meters of LNG per month are currently imported by the EU. The top buyers include France, Spain and Belgium, according to price information service ICS.

Sanctioned goods from Russia - for example cement, caviar, gold, plastics and wood - also continue to find their way, including to Germany. Robert Habeck's Ministry of Economics is now admitting for the first time that the sanctions offer many loopholes that are used by states and companies. "It is obvious that sanctions are being circumvented here. "

Europe buys Russian gas

India is the typical beneficiary, as this world's largest democracy seized the opportunity to import cheaply the quantities of Russian oil and gas freed up by Western restraint. Unlike Poland, India cannot even bring itself to clearly condemn the Ukraine war. The country is trying to capitalize on the conflict.

2. The pacifist-minded

All over the world, a pacifist sentiment has spread, ostensibly promoting a quick and non-violent end to the war, but with it Ukraine's surrender and lack of freedom.

The Manifesto for Peace, initiated by Sahra Wagenknecht and Alice Schwarzer, gathers people like Antje Vollmer, Margot Käßmann, but also conservative politicians like Peter Gauweiler, who do not want to deliver any more weapons to Ukraine and thus leave it defenseless to Russian aggression: "We call on the German Chancellor to stop the escalation of arms deliveries."

3. the political opponents

This group is the most dangerous for Ukraine because it is particularly active in the U.S., attacking Ukraine's main sponsor, the government in Washington. Donald Trump's conservative challenger, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, unequivocally opposes military aid from Joe Biden's administration. "Just saying it's an open-ended blank check, that is not acceptable."

Continuing, "I and many Americans think to ourselves, okay, he's very concerned about the borders on the other side of the world. He hasn't done anything to secure our own border here at home. "

Donald Trump doesn't want to miss this train, which is on a high-speed collision course with Washington. In a fundraising appeal to finance his campaign, he promotes himself as a fiery opponent of further military support for the Selenskyj government.

He writes, "In an economic climate as inflation carves up citizens in the U.S., Biden is sending taxpayer money to fund pensions to Kiev. "

Further, "He loves to send our taxpayer money abroad to secure other nations' borders. " His conclusion, "Biden puts other peoples before his own. "

It's about interests, not just justice

Bottom line: public support for Ukraine is eroding. The country's supporters must do what they have so far failed to do adequately - explain themselves and their motives. Governments owe accountability to their taxpayers, as well as to their military personnel, for the investments they are making here and the risks they are taking.

Without that persuasion, the Ukraine war, just as, for that matter, the Vietnam War once was, could fail because of a lack of support in those states that are funding this war on the Western side.

The belief that the Ukrainians' struggle for freedom is self-explanatory is a child's faith. It is about interests, not just justice. The West is not a supernatural place either. Or to quote Polish lyricist Stanisław Jerzy Lec again, "Those who seek heaven on earth have slept in geography class. "
--------------------------------More than 50 countries allied in support for Ukraine the Russian Federation has max 4 countries that could actively support their invasion of those only one is openly providing material with the Israeli attacks they have backed down on their support.

[Dargo]

Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung:
-----------------------------------
"The Russians are in our networks"

Cyber defense specialists warn of Russian hacking attacks. They represent a new type of digital warfare. German companies and government agencies may be targeted even more than they already are.

Germany is under constant digital fire. The federal government in Berlin, Frankfurt-based financial institutions, Munich-based defense contractors, the taxpayers' association, energy providers and humanitarian aid organizations - they all have to defend themselves against cyberattacks. Just recently, hackers took down the websites of German airports using relatively simple methods. Their attacks are well camouflaged, but in the search for the perpetrators, eyes are turning toward Russia.

Several cybersecurity experts interviewed by F.A.Z. and a new analysis by Internet company Google report a new type of digital warfare and see a "politicization of attacks." Germany is one of the countries increasingly targeted by Russian-based hacker groups. The main target is Ukraine, where, according to Google, cyberattacks already skyrocketed last fall and where the Defense Ministry in particular was attacked.

The vice president of the German Federal Intelligence Service (BND) had already warned last summer at the HPI security conference in Potsdam: "Russia is in our networks. China is in our networks." Now, IBM security experts declare in their X-Force security report that Russia is massively arming itself on the digital front. And Google, in its new "Fog of War" analysis, describes how Moscow is pulling out all the stops to do so, recruiting private hacker gangs and harnessing them to the cart of the GRU military intelligence agency.

IT security companies such as German firms Link11 or Avira and U.S. technology groups also repeatedly report masses of Russian cyberattacks. "We're seeing a kind of politicization of attacks at the moment," says Marc Korthaus of Berlin-based security firm Sys11. With the German government's decision to supply battle tanks to Ukraine, the number of attacks on German targets skyrocketed. "But these were not sophisticated and particularly sophisticated attacks," he explains. "And that worries us. Because these attacks are little more than a warning signal - and we have to take that seriously. So we should look closely at what was going on in the networks there before the actual attack on Ukraine." That's because relatively simple attacks - like the recent one in Germany - were followed by technically smart attacks.

Alexander Vuckevic, director of Protection Labs at IT security firm Avira, says, "Every time Europe tightened sanctions against Russia or pushed aid to Ukraine, hackers massaged their attacks. The Bundestag voted in favor of tank deliveries - a wave of attacks swept over German IT systems. At the security conference in Munich, Moscow's invasion was pilloried - hackers attacked NATO's IT systems. Bulgaria sided with Ukraine - the Russian Killnet group attacked the government's computers in Sofia.

Christian Dörr, professor of cybersecurity at the Hasso Plattner Institute (HPI) in Potsdam, says, "Cyber war exists." It's just showing up in a different way than we thought. Among other things, he says, the Russians have learned lessons from their "Viasat hack." A year ago, hackers had attacked the communications satellites of U.S. operator Viasat used by Ukraine - and also hit data links of German wind turbines. In 2017, the Russians had caused heavy collateral damage with the Not-Petya Trojan attack. The malware first attacked Ukrainian banks, but then spread uncontrollably throughout the global data networks - and thus also found its way onto the computers of companies such as Beiersdorf and Maersk.

Today, the Russians are trying their hand at digital precision attacks, says HPI security specialist Dörr. According to analyses by Google parent company Alphabet, Moscow is having cyber groups attack selected targets with customized software in order to prevent digital viruses, worms or Trojans from spilling over into the vastness of the Internet. Russian cyber mercenary groups such as Frozenlake, Pusha or Krymsky Bridge can now draw on arsenals of digital weapons. Their scattering effect in the digital space can be limited, but that does not make them any less dangerous.

For example, the Ukraine war continues to put even experienced cyber specialists like Sandra Joyce in dicey situations. Joyce heads global threat intelligence at Mandiant, an IT security company that was just bought by Google's cloud division. The company is known for its rapid digital response force. When hackers from Russia attacked Ukrainian businesses or government agencies and the Mandiant team provided first aid, communications might suddenly cut off, Joyce says. "Time and time again, the power went out because of bombings, or the contacts had to go into the bunker."

That's because the cyberattacks have a system. The Russians precisely prepared the majority of attacks by their artillery, infantry and tank forces through the use of malware in cyberspace. They not only bomb power plants or clinics, they also target computing and data centers. "In the first four months of the war alone, we've seen more destructive attacks than in the previous eight years," Joyce says.

Unlike ransomware attacks on civilian targets, in which hackers penetrate their victims' systems, hijack their data, encrypt it and release it only after paying a ransom, war hackers use special programs to erase their enemies' data. The procedure: on hacked computers, the hard drive is erased. The goal: maximum chaos. Programs such as Paywipe or Caddywiper were developed years ago for this purpose. The Russians first tested these data destroyers after the occupation of Crimea. Google calls them simply "destructive."

The key messages of Google's just-released "Fog of War" report are: Moscow wants to control the virtual battlefields in order to gain decisive advantages in the real combat regions. To this end, it is pursuing "aggressive, multi-layered strategies. These ranged from simple data bombs to digital precession weapons; from simple DDoS attacks that simply collapse foreign computers with data garbage to data-killing destruction programs.

Moscow's hackers had been attacking Ukraine with these long before Russian troops invaded last year. To bolster this network force, Russia mobilized additional gangs from the ranks of cybercriminals. Thus, it built up a small army of cyber mercenaries. "The lines between state hacker groups and cybercriminals are blurring," says Mandiant's Joyce as well.

The capabilities of these units should definitely not be underestimated, says Christian Dörr of HPI. They can camouflage their attacks almost perfectly, make them very flexible, and ramp them up or down at any time. After all, the Russian state hackers also use digital platforms, forums and resources of well-known cybergangs from the darknet - and that's where a lot of sensitive data of large German companies is now circulating.
-----------------------------------------They were always in our networks like we are in theirs what is noticed is that the great Russian hackers are not so great they even disappoint us if they are really so good and a force to fear they did not have to bombard the energy system if the Russian is so leet they would hack it (SCADA) we have more hacked in Russia the past year than vice versa. This is so hyped and hackermongering a decrease for the ink on paper.

[Dargo]

Drones Are Giving Ukraine a Wartime Edge
A $2,000 vehicle made in China destroys a Russian tank worth millions. They call it ‘delivering pizza.’

Discussion about the war in Ukraine has focused recently on whether the West will supply Kyiv with tanks and jets. But consider the humble drone. Even as Russia has used Iranian-made drones to attack Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, Ukraine has repurposed cheap commercial drones for use on the battlefield. Jury-rigged commercial drones typically carry small payloads over short distances, but they’re cheap and can take out heavy enemy equipment. Ukrainian fighters call it “delivering pizza.” In September in the northern region of Kharkiv, Stanislav Zorin, a 36-year-old drone operator for Ukraine’s 80th Airborne Assault Brigade, used a Chinese-made DJI Mavic 3 drone that costs a little more than $2,000 to destroy a Russian tank worth millions. Mr. Zorin describes it as “my ideal sortie.”

Ukraine also has used drones to improve the accuracy of low-precision artillery. “When the first shot goes in, you say, ‘Well, it’s 10 meters left, it’s 10 meters right,’ until you make it in. It makes a huge difference,” says Timur Khromaev, 47, company commander of the Territorial Defense’s 112 Brigade, who spent the summer flying drones over Russian positions in the southern region of Kherson. Russia has had vastly more artillery and missile systems than Ukraine. “Every shot counts,” Mr. Khromaev says. “Drones are fundamentally a platform that lets you do one of two things,” says Fred Kagan, director of the American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project. “It lets you look at stuff, and it lets you shoot stuff.”

The West has helped Ukraine with intelligence, but Kyiv has also relied on drones to peer into Russian-occupied territory. Drones “let poor countries do stuff that otherwise only rich countries used to be able to do,” Mr. Kagan says. “The Ukrainians have used drones to offset their own gaps in capability at a much lower price tag than they would have had to pay if they were going to do it in the more conventional military way.” Drones can also be used in psychological warfare. Samuel Bendett, a member of the Russia Studies Program at the nonprofit Center for Naval Analyses, says a pro-Kremlin account on Telegram recently featured a post by a Russian soldier who described how Ukrainians had used commercial drones to surveil his unit and attack its men when they tried to move between shelters.

“Movement is life,” the post said. “Especially in war. As soon as you are deprived of movement, you experience the difficulties with transportation and the evacuation of the wounded. . . . The fighter then gets the idea that he was driven into a trap and the brain offers options on how to escape. Morale then drops by an order of magnitude—this leads to soldiers abandoning their positions.” This is dangerous work for the Ukrainians. The short flying range of commercial drones means operators “have to be on the edge of the frontline to do our work,” and “we can be reached by any means of artillery,” says Ihor Lutsenko, 44, a former member of Ukraine’s Parliament who has been flying modified commercial drones in eastern Ukraine. “This is the most dangerous job after being in the infantry, but compared to the infantry, you’re a priority goal for the enemy.” Fatalities and injuries are common. Russians often begin firing at operators within minutes after a drone takes flight. Sometimes “you can hear when it’s out, then you can expect something [is] going to fall on you, you can hide,” Mr. Zorin says. But sometimes “it just comes in, and you’re just standing there. . . . It’s like an immediate explosion.”

There’s a high burn rate for Ukraine’s drones, which are at particular risk of jammers that can commandeer or down them. Civil society is helping replenish the supply. “Drones have been probably the No. 1 target for volunteer fundraising activities throughout this war,” says Yuriy Sak, an adviser to Ukraine’s defense minister. These efforts are nimble because they’re decentralized and don’t rely on military bureaucracy. Volunteer groups communicate with soldiers about their needs, then crowdfund the purchase and figure out a way to deliver it fast to the front. Chinese-made DJI drones are prevalent, with the Mavic 3 model considered the workhorse of the Ukrainian front. DJI didn’t respond to my queries, but in a statement in November the company said “we stand alone as the only drone company to clearly denounce and actively discourage use of our products in combat, including suspending all business operations in Russia and Ukraine to try to keep our drones out of the conflict.”

https://www.wsj.com/articles/drones-are-giving-ukraine-a-wartime-edge-homemade-dji-china-russia-tanks-weaponry-invasion-civilian-volunteer-russian-occupation-5c0bab55

[Dargo]

The tank coalition looks like this!
░░░░░░███████ ] ▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄
▂▄▅█████████▅▄▃▂
[ ███████████████████ ]
◥⊙▲⊙▲⊙▲⊙▲⊙▲⊙▲⊙◤

https://i.postimg.cc/13Rnqx8K/tankcoalition.jpg
https://twitter.com/Illya_Ayzin/status/1629149974352068615

[Dargo]

For all the worries about the “Global South’s” position, it bears repeating that Russia remains more isolated than the Soviet Union ever was — even after 1979 invasion of Afghanistan.

https://i.postimg.cc/xCbcTS6T/Fprjv8n-Xw-AIm-LBA.jpg
https://twitter.com/Nigelgd1/status/1629139913596669963

[Dargo]

Sweden to send 10 Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine
Sweden will send 10 Leopard 2 main battle tanks to Ukraine, as western efforts to provide Kyiv rapidly with heavy armour gather pace. Defence minister Pål Jonson said on Friday that the 10 Leopard 2A5s, modern variants of the German-built main battle tanks, would be delivered “as soon as possible”.

“It is absolutely right to contribute with heavy weapons systems,” Jonson said. “It is crucial for Ukraine.” Poland on Friday said the first of 14 Polish Leopard 2s pledged to Kyiv had arrived in Ukraine, while Germany said it would increase the number of Leopard 2A6 tanks it would send from 14 to 18. Spain on Thursday said it would provide six older Leopard 2s, but these would have to undergo extensive refurbishment.

The German government, which is spearheading efforts to assemble two battalions of Leopard tanks from various European armies, has expressed frustration that other capitals have hesitated to follow through on promises to provide tanks. Sweden is also providing two air defence systems, including a state of the art IRIS-T battery, which has already proved highly effective in shooting down Russian missiles in Ukraine.

https://www.ft.com/content/a05c3b2e-6893-48b6-94a4-02f35f80d79b#post-c89707ea-6477-4274-80e2-bf55541d7b9c

[Jimbuna]

Netherlands does not have any taboos regarding F-16 fighters, - head of Ministry of Foreign Affairs Hoekstra

The Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Netherlands, Wopke Hoekstra, emphasized that it is very important for Ukraine to maintain its position on the battlefield.

He stated this in an interview with Ukrinform, Сensor.NET reports.

Answering a question about Ukraine's request for F-16 fighter jets to the Netherlands, the minister emphasized that there is no taboo, but it is better to conduct this discussion behind closed doors.

"In general, there are no taboos for us. But it is better to conduct this discussion behind closed doors and always in close cooperation with our allies," he said.

According to Hookstra, it is very important for Ukraine to maintain its position on the battlefield.

The minister explained how the 2.5 billion euros that the Netherlands plans to allocate to support Ukraine in 2023 will be distributed.

"A significant amount will be allocated for military support. As I said, it is very important that Ukraine holds its ground on the battlefield and that it ultimately shows Russia that unprovoked, illegal and brutal aggression is unacceptable. This allocation also includes humanitarian aid and recovery as soon as possible to help Ukrainians who are currently suffering from the consequences of, for example, losing their homes or Russia's targeted destruction of civilian infrastructure, so this money will also be used to rebuild critical electricity and water supply," he explained. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3402056

Sweden will provide Ukraine with air defense systems IRIS-T and Hawk, as well as Leopard tanks, - Prime Minister Kristersson

As part of a new military aid package, Sweden will provide Ukraine with IRIS-T and Hawk air defense systems.

Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson stated this at a joint press conference with Defense Minister Paul Jonson, Censor.NET reports with reference to RBC-Ukraine.

The head of the government said that Sweden will include not only air defense, but also Leopard tanks in the package.

At the same time, the Minister of Defense emphasized that such supplies are primarily a signal to Ukraine that Sweden continues its support by providing a new aid package.

"Ukraine needs air defense systems, it is absolutely important for Ukraine that Russia does not gain dominance in the air. This is an opportunity that we must ensure in the long term," Jonson added. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3401994

[Jimbuna]

Germany will transfer 18 Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine

Germany will provide Ukraine with four additional Leopard 2 A6 main battle tanks.

This was announced by the German Ministry of Defense based on the joint decision of Defense Minister Boris Pistorius and his military advisors, informed by Censor.NET with reference to "Euro Integration".

According to the decision, four tanks will arrive from the warehouses of the Bundeswehr. Thus, Germany will supply Ukraine with 18 main battle tanks instead of the 14 previously reported.

"Thanks to this decision, we can now, together with our Portuguese and Swedish partners, provide a mixed Ukrainian battalion," the ministry said in a statement. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3402018

"War in Ukraine started reboot of NATO," - Zelensky

President Volodymyr Zelensky believes that the war in Ukraine has led to reforming the state of the defense system in NATO.

As Censor.NET informs, he stated this during the press conference "February. The Year of Invincibility".

"The war in Ukraine started the reboot of NATO. That's how it is. Everyone checked and understood that the systems are not improved, and that more powerful things are needed. I'm not talking about shells, a lot of money is invested in cyberspace, protection against cyber-attacks, information independence, drones, IT, the latest technologies. This is reforming the state of its defense system. Everyone has seen what can be expected from the Russian Federation," the president noted. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3402029

Zelensky on negotiations with Putin: There is no one to talk to

President Volodymyr Zelensky believes that there is no possibility of negotiations with the President of the Russian Federation Vladimirr Putin.

He stated this during a press conference, Censor.NET reports.

"Erdogan knows my position (regarding the possibility of holding talks with Putin in Turkey - ed.). I don't accept it," Zelensky said.

The President of Ukraine said that he appealed to the President of Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, before the start of a full-scale war, that the President of Russia "be put at the negotiating table."

"Put negotiations on the table, we cannot allow the risks of a full-scale war. Erdogan could not do it then. And not only he, he is powerful. He could not. And now he thinks he can. Now we can't, Putin is not the same person, there is no one to talk to," Zelensky noted. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3402046

I don’t care what will happen to Russia after defeat, - Zelensky

President Volodymyr Zelensky said that he does not think about what will happen to Russia after the defeat in the war against Ukraine.

As reported by Censor.NET, he stated this during the press conference "February. The Year of Invincibility".

"Many states have really started talking about what will happen after the defeat (of Russia. - Ed.). I believe that informationally, this is in favor of Ukraine. It is important that the faith of states, the faith of leaders, and therefore societies. This is a signal to us that most countries, at least in Europe, believe in the victory of Ukraine. This means the defeat of Moscow. The main question is: what will happen to Russia then. Honestly, I don't care. ... If they thought about their freedom of speech, democracy, about their people, that they would not be beggars, that they would not have slavery, etc. ... They would be a rich country because they are a naturally rich country," he said.

According to Zelensky, all adequate states think what they would do for their society, and some think about what they would do against others.

"That's why it's a question of their history, their future. And I don't think about it. ... I think that the elite, the very business of the Russian Federation, which is absolutely justly sanctioned now, all this is a dislike of these people, who are very rich. ... But now all this, they have no comfort. They have what remains in Russia. Do you think they will allow there to be not one Russia, but 20-40? Do you think they will share their business? Do you think when everything is locked up that they won't think about what to do internally, and how to preserve these capitals? They will figure it out themselves. More pressure, more sanctions, and more isolation on Russia and their elite will think what they would do inside the state to want to sit down with their new policy. We are interested in this," the head of state explained. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3402039

[Skybird]

More than 50 countries allied in support for Ukraine the Russian Federation has max 4 countries that could actively support their invasion of those only one is openly providing material with the Israeli attacks they have backed down on their support.
India, China did not vote against Russia.

And the countries that did not vote for the resolution represent the majority of mankind, and a major share of its economic productivity.

[Dargo]

India, China did not vote against Russia.

And the countries that did not vote for the resolution represent the majority of mankind, and a major share of its economic productivity.Without the markets of the West that majority of mankind will go into a depression, production can quickly transfer to other regions.

[Skybird]

The tank coalition looks like this!
░░░░░░███████ ] ▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄
▂▄▅█████████▅▄▃▂
[ ███████████████████ ]
◥⊙▲⊙▲⊙▲⊙▲⊙▲⊙▲⊙◤

https://i.postimg.cc/13Rnqx8K/tankcoalition.jpg
https://twitter.com/Illya_Ayzin/status/1629149974352068615


36 Leopard 2A4s from the 80s, most of them with unknown delivery dates.
178 Leopard 1A5s from the pre-80s, with unknown or very late delivery dates
14 Challenger 2s.
31 M1A2s next year.
31-36 Leopard 2AS6 or equivalents.

Note that most of the total of T-72s already had been delivered last year and by now are worn out or were taken out by enemy fire, says Colonel Reisner. These do not count anymore. Losses of Ukrainian forces have been high, too.

If I see the number of modern tanks that are not covered by dust, I think these tanks count less signficantly than the supply with far-reaching missiles, weapons to deny control of the sky to Russia, and securing supply with artillery rounds. Its estimated that Russia has 10 million artillery rounds left, and now produces around 3.5 million every year.

Sorry, but I stick to it. These numbers of Western deliveries don't cut it for Ukraine, they help to extend the war, but not to win it. Note that its critical infrastructure has suffered so much destruction by now that their production and factories are very seriously affected and that war production in parts is completely knocked out. The Russian bombardement takes its tolls, and this toll has already become dangerously high. Time is working for Russia, with Western public opinion's sympathy slowly but constantly fading away.

Different to many others I do not give much for UN resolutions, also not for the one from yesterday, thats just verbal mumbo-jumbo. Its cheap for those who voted. Economc ties and dependencies will be rated more important sooner or later by many African states and Latin American states as well. India already does not even hide that it intends to benefit from the Russian situation as much as it can. China will do and already does the same.



Adn the West still buys signfivcantly from Russia: oil, gas, ressoeuces, with sancitons beign seriously undermined by Westenr companies. Most Western companies that were busy in the West - STILL ARE SO. Neither the economical drying-out nor the financial collapse of the Russian currency will take place.


Too little to win. Too much to die. No reaosn to tapm ourselves on the shoulders. We still have not moved to war production. We still have not placed serious levels of orders with ammo and arms suppliers.

Colonel Reisner mentioned on an Austrian video blog yesterday that the costs for weapons have risen sharply. An Iris-T missile one year ago costed 400,000 Euros, according to him. It now costs 780,000 Euros.

GO FIGURE.

[Dargo]

36 Leopard 2A4s from the 80s, most of them with unknown delivery dates.
178 Leopard 1A5s from the pre-80s, with unknown or very late delivery dates
14 Challenger 2s.
31 M1A2s next year.
31-36 Leopard 2AS6 or equivalents.

Note that most of the total of T-72s already had been delivered last year and by now are worn out or were taken out by enemy fire, says Colonel Reisner. These do not count anymore. Losses of Ukrainian forces have been high, too.

If I see the number of modern tanks that are not covered by dust, I think these tanks count less signficantly than the supply with far-reaching missiles, weapons to deny control of the sky to Russia, and securing supply with artillery rounds. Its estimated that Russia has 10 million artillery rounds left, and now produces around 3.5 million every year.

Sorry, but I stick to it. These numbers of Western deliveries don't cut it for Ukraine, they help to extend the war, but not to win it. Note that its critical infrastructure has suffered so much destruction by now that their production and factories are very seriously affected and that war production in parts is completely knocked out. The Russian bombardement takes its tolls, and this toll has already become dangerously high. Time is working for Russia, with Western public opinion's sympathy slowly but constantly fading away.

Different to many others I do not give much for UN resolutions, also not for the one from yesterday, thats just verbal mumbo-jumbo. Its cheap for those who voted. Economc ties and dependencies will be rated more important sooner or later by many African states and Latin American states as well. India already does not even hide that it intends to benefit from the Russian situation as much as it can. China will do and already does the same.



Adn the West still buys signfivcantly from Russia: oil, gas, ressoeuces, with sancitons beign seriously undermined by Westenr companies. Most Western companies that were busy in the West - STILL ARE SO. Neither the economical drying-out nor the financial collapse of the Russian currency will take place.


Too little to win. Too much to die. No reaosn to tapm ourselves on the shoulders. We still have not moved to war production. We still have not placed serious levels of orders with ammo and arms suppliers.

Colonel Reisner mentioned on an Austrian video blog yesterday that the costs for weapons have risen sharply. An Iris-T missile one year ago costed 400,000 Euros, according to him. It now costs 780,000 Euros.

GO FIGURE.Tanks are on both sides, low in numbers and a $2000,- drone can destroy them for Russia to profit from trade with India and China it must build infrastructure that takes years to get on the same export as they had with Europe. India and China have the power to determine the price, so the income will be lower for Russia. For a real war production, Russia lacks the numbers in workforce the soviet could use its gulags that Russia does not have in numbers now and a klepto system is not good either as Russia is a kleptocracy it will lose on that also. We have placed serious levels of orders with ammo and arms suppliers, problem is they need to build production lines for that and that takes time.

[Skybird]

Without the markets of the West that majority of mankind will go into a depression, production can quickly transfer to other regions.
I so then I have missed why they have a globalisation problems since so many years. Where are the overwhelming majority of quantities of rare earths located? Which country is the pharmacy of the world? What place is the global hotspot of chip production that, if stopping, would bring the global economy to a standstill? Which country, that gets heavily sanctioned currently, nevertheless exports ressources as if there was no war raging, and forms ties with thankful third world countries who now can afford these ressources? Which countries have no problems with shrinkling workforces, both low-education labour and specialised expert jobs? - China. Russia. India. Taiwan. Russia. Asia.

The big economic players in South America and Africa are Brazil, South Africa, and Kenya, Nigeria. Two of these belong to the BRICS club. And BRICS is not about being friends with the Western economies. BRICS is a dedicated anti-Western economic alliance.

Both China and India each have a population of 1.4 trillion. Thats where the future music plays.

If we could switch production to other places that easily and quickly and stay competitive nevertehless (which we can't), we already would have done so. Plus some of us are big exporters ourselves, namely Germany. We need these countries to buy our stuff.

[Skybird]

Tanks are on both sides, low in numbers and a $2000,- drone can destroy them for Russia to profit from trade with India and China it must build infrastructure that takes years to get on the same export as they had with Europe. India and China have the power to determine the price, so the income will be lower for Russia. For a real war production, Russia lacks the numbers in workforce the soviet could use its gulags that Russia does not have in numbers now and a klepto system is not good either as Russia is a kleptocracy it will lose on that also. We have placed serious levels of orders with ammo and arms suppliers, problem is they need to build production lines for that and that takes time.


Potential russian tank reserves are in the thousands. And they are active on ALL their backyards where they mothballed them. The Russian already have lost more tanks than all NATO countries in Europe have in service alltogether.



The Russian (Iranian) drones are primitive maybe, but right that is what makes them militarily valuable - to maintain them you do not send them back to the factory, but you have the soldier in the trench improvising a solution and get it working again.



Russian income from selling rsesseruces did not implode as was expected in the west last year. In fatc they camke better through the inflaiton and eco9nomic crisi8s than amynbWetsenr countries. When nowadays I hgear media saying the Russi soon will pay th eeocnom ic price, then I think two thingS: first, it will be the normal people doping so and that are people Russioan government never have cared for, and seocnd, its wishful thzinling. Russia will not become unable to fiannc eits war. Yoiu can wait til hell freezes over, it will not happen.



Production in Russian factories is cheaper, workers earn lower wages. The same defence budgets gets you more ships and missiles in Russia, than in Wetsenr countries. What the Ukraine does not have, are: time, and money. They are completely depending on the good will of donators. Much of the American aids for example are no donations at all, but credits.



I refered a few days back to an article by a reporter close wioht Brussels who said internal sources and aisiders say the claims made about orders for replacmeent of leased material and ammo are exaggerated, have not taken place, pratcically. These isndiers said that NATO at that tioem was not aware that signfiicant ammounts of orders for repalcements and filling up expe3nded reserves have been place din NATO'S countries. In Germany there is a lot of talking and negotiating done, but almost no binding orders placed, instead the politicians demanded the industry to pre-produce at their own risk. They did that already last year (although german laws forbid that, btw) - and much of that stuff now still waits to get ordered by the state. Stoltenberg soem days agao also warned that NATO is way laggign behind in ordering replacement ammo and equipment, and that things do not move fast enough.



You always see it more rosy. I always see it more grim. :) If the truth would be in the middle, that already would be an improvement, but I think in reality things are not even there. And at least in case of Germany I am very sure of that. The new defenc emonister may want to do thigns fatserk, but he too must fight the petrified system, and the stubborn pacifists both in the SPD and the Greens. Media poaiont it as if the Greens are all for more wepaons and chase the SPD in front of them, but that is only on e half of the truth. There is a wing called "Realos" that indeed want much more aid for Ukraine, but the Greens by core and genes are an extrnely leftist, Maoist and poacifistic party, and always were that. There is very strong resistence to more defence spendings. And in the SPD anyway, plus the SPD's traditional Russophilia. there is some very strict opposition in both parties to do more regarding military things.

[Jimbuna]

Zelensky wants Xi Jinping meeting following China's peace plan

By George Wright & Jaroslav Lukiv
BBC News

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has said he plans to meet China's leader Xi Jinping to discuss Beijing's proposals on ending the war in Ukraine.

Speaking on the first anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion, he said the proposal signalled that China was involved in the search for peace.

"I really want to believe that China will not supply weapons to Russia," he said.

China's plan calls for peace talks and respect for national sovereignty.

However, the 12-point document does not specifically say that Russia must withdraw its troops from Ukraine, and it also condemns the usage of "unilateral sanctions", in what is seen as a veiled criticism of Ukraine's allies in the West.

The Chinese authorities have so far not publicly responded to Mr Zelensky's call for a summit with Mr Xi.

Meanwhile, Russia hailed the Chinese peace proposals. "We share Beijing's views," the foreign ministry in Moscow said in a statement.

Earlier this week, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Beijing was considering supplying weapons and ammunition to Russia - a claim strongly denied by Beijing. On Friday, American media again reported that the Chinese government was considering sending drones and artillery shells to Moscow.

Asked about the Chinese plan, US President Joe Biden told ABC News on Friday: "[Russian President Vladimir] Putin's applauding it, so how could it be any good?

"I've seen nothing in the plan that would indicate that there is something that would be beneficial to anyone other than Russia," he added.

China appears to be siding with Russia, though it would like to find a way of rescuing President Putin by arranging some kind of face-saving peace deal, says the BBC's World Affairs Editor John Simpson.

The Chinese proposals follow a visit by the country's top diplomat Wang Yi to Moscow, where he met President Putin and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Wednesday.

After the talks, Mr Wang was quoted by China's state-run Xinhua news agency as saying that Beijing was willing to "deepen political trust" and "strengthen strategic coordination" with Moscow.

Western officials gave the latest proposals a lukewarm reception. Nato chief Jens Stoltenberg said Beijing "doesn't have much credibility" because it had "not been able to condemn the illegal invasion of Ukraine".

President Putin launched the full-scale invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022, and Russian troops made significant advances during the first few days in Ukraine's north, east and south.

But the attack on the capital Kyiv was soon repulsed and the Ukrainian military was later able to retake large areas.

The conflict - the biggest in Europe since World War Two - has since become a grinding war of attrition.

At a lengthy news conference in Kyiv on Friday, Mr Zelensky also said victory "will inevitably await us" if allies "respect their promises and deadlines".

Poland said it had already delivered four German-made Leopard II tanks to Ukraine and was ready to deliver more. Germany has said it will provide 14 Leopard tanks, with Spain and Canada also sending tanks.

The US - by far the biggest provider of military aid to Ukraine - has pledged to send 31 of its M1 Abrams tanks and the UK is providing 14 Challenger 2 tanks.

The Ukrainian leader added that his country had failed to engage sufficiently with countries in Africa and Latin America after many nations in those continents abstained during a UN General Assembly vote on a resolution condemning Russia's invasion.

"We didn't work well for many years, we didn't pay attention, I think it's a big mistake," he said.

Asked if he could name his worst moment of the war so far, Mr Zelensky said Bucha, a town outside Kyiv where Russian troops are accused of having killed civilians in the early part of the war. The small town had been under Russian control until Ukrainian troops fought back last April to reclaim it.

"What I saw. It was horrible," Mr Zelensky said, visibly moved.

The US marked a year since Russia invaded Ukraine by announcing a new range of sanctions against Russia and new aid for Ukraine.

The latest restrictions target more than 100 entities both within Russia and worldwide, including banks and suppliers of defence equipment. The US said it wanted to stop those helping Russia exploit loopholes to get sanctioned materials.

The White House's fresh round of aid for Ukraine is worth $12bn (£10bn), comprising $2bn from the Department of Defense including ammunition and drones and $10bn from the State Department including budgetary support to the Ukrainian government.

A further $550m will be supplied to both Ukraine and neighbouring Moldova to strengthen their energy infrastructure.

Moldova is Europe's poorest country and has been heavily impacted by the war. Its leaders have warned for several weeks that Russia is plotting to seize power.

It comes days after US President Joe Biden flew to Kyiv for a surprise visit and held talks with Mr Zelensky.

On Friday, the EU also approved its 10th round of sanctions against Russia, imposing restrictions on technology that has a civilian and military dual use.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64762219

[Skybird]

The British say Russia has run out of Iran-made drones.

That is unpleasant for Russia since many of the missiles shooting these drones down costed much more than the drones themselves. Also they were nice decoys distracting Ukrainian air defences away from more capable Russian cruise missiles.

But Iran is still there and can provide new ones, if Russia wants them. I am quite confident that this is what we will see. For their their purpose and in their role, these Iranian drones were quite good and extremely cost-efficient.
------------------------
FOCUS:
Putin himself is said to be lied to about the exact course of the war and the situation of the Russian army, according to a Financial Times report. "No one is telling Putin the truth," a close Putin confidant told the newspaper. For its research, the Financial Times spoke with six longtime Putin confidants, people involved in the war, and current and former high-ranking officials in the West and Ukraine.
By keeping a low profile, the Kremlin officials would be protecting themselves more than anything else. Most members of Putin's presidential administration and economic cabinet have told friends that they oppose the war but feel they can do nothing about it, the report said. "It is really a unique war in world history when the entire elite is against it," one former senior official said.
Given Putin's failed war plan, the president would now look for new reasons to justify his deployment, the report added. "He tells people close to him, "It turns out we were completely unprepared. The Army is a wreck. Our industry is a mess. But it's good that we found out this way and not when NATO invaded us," a former official told the newspaper. The FSB intelligence service in particular is said to have convinced Putin before the war began that there would be no great resistance in Ukraine.
-------------------

[Skybird]

Da haben wir's nun. Long feared, now it comes true. Of course, they don't say it openly, but the Europeans are fed up with the tremors the war means for them, and so they are now blatantly threatening to cut off Ukraine's water by cutting it off from supplies from the West if it is not willing to cede territory to Russia. FOCUS writes with reference to the Wall Street Journal:
------------------------------------

Report: Scholz and Macron discuss secret NATO plan for end of war with Selenskyj

Berlin, Paris and London want to convince Ukraine to begin peace talks with Russia later this year. The Wall Street Journal reports this, citing officials from the three governments. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron, for example, had already told Ukrainian President Volodymyr Selenskyj at their January meeting in Paris that he needed to consider peace talks with the Kremlin. He said they had recalled that Germany and France also had to make peace after World War II. However, when and under what conditions talks would take place would still depend on Ukraine, officials said.

Under the draft agreement from the German, French and British governments, Ukraine would be encouraged to hold talks in which it would receive weapons, ammunition and military support from its Western partners to continue defending itself after the war ended. This support would include NATO-standard weapons systems. British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak presented this draft last week and said it would be discussed at the Nato annual meeting in July.

However, he said the background to the draft is also that governments in Berlin, Paris and London doubt that Ukraine will be able to drive Russian troops out of eastern Ukraine and Crimea. "If the war continues long enough with this intensity, Ukraine's losses will become unbearable," a senior French official said. "And no one believes they will be able to take back Crimea." Moreover, the West would want to try to change the Kremlin's calculus. If Moscow saw that the West was willing to increase its military support toward Ukraine, it could convince the Kremlin that it cannot achieve its military goals.

The German government declined to comment on the report, as did the U.S. government. The French and British governments did not respond to the Wall Street Journal's inquiry.
------------------

The Ukraine cannot fight on without weapon deliveries from the West, it is completely depending on us. Thats the sober fact and there is no way around accepting this fact.

The next victim I have the displeasure to announce here: the rearming and restrengthening of NATO will be culled next. We have more important things tpo waste moeny on. Green deals and climate-related money annihilation programs and mass migration projects, for example.

I think by the end of this year parts of the sanction we have now in place, will already be cancelled.


If Zelensky will not comply with the Western "suggestions", he will be forced to do so, by cutting him off from Western supplies.


America will not stop this dagger in the back. It has acchieved what it wanted from the war: a massive weakening of Russia and a massive destruction of Russian armed forces. You can see their real attitude when you compare the ammount of military support they could provide if only they wanted, and the much, much smaller ammount they actually do provide. If the Us really wanted it, this war could already have been over and Russian forces in Ukraine either kicked out or wiped out. Remember, it must have been the Americans who enabled a deal with Russia that allowed Moscow to withdraw 30,000 defeated troops and weapons from Cherson over three almost destroyed bridges and withou gettign bombed into oblivion by the Ukrainian during their organised and sorted retreat. There is no other explanation that makes sense than that Washington intervened in Kyiv to not strike at them. The Ukrainians were set up and supplied and ready in that part of the front.

Russia will get away with its strike. In this meaning, it will win the war, and keep its latest loot. Ukraine looses, and will be industrially and economically fundamentally crippled. Possible that in some years or decades historians will write that allowing Ukraine to gain a victory and approach the EU and NATO for membership from a position of strength was never an option seriously considered in Western capitols, sinc ehtis would have come at the cost of influence by Paris and Berlin.

States have no friends. States have interests. Pathetic speeches and symbolic acts in front of cameras are only stage effects, Theaterdonner. They mean nothing, no matter the words.

[Skybird]

Der Tagesspiegel:
--------------------
The internal dispute at Rolls-Royce Power Systems, the manufacturer of tank engines, shows that replacement procurement and upgrades will be much more complicated than many people imagine.

Can the [Leopard-2] tank engine manufacturer [who belongs to RR, Skybird] ramp up production quickly or not? The management and works council of Rolls-Royce Power Systems on Lake Constance have been publicly arguing about this since the end of January. What is true cannot be judged conclusively from the outside. But the case is an example of how the country's replacement procurement and planned upgrade will be much more complicated than some people imagine.

The first step is the orders, with which politicians are taking an irritatingly long time. After that, production has to ramp up. This requires skilled workers and labor, which are as scarce in the defense industry as anywhere else - and even more so at Lake Constance. In view of the small quantities involved, tank engines are largely handmade.

Many of the suppliers have full order books and are working to capacity until next year. Making room for the short-term wishes of politicians is easier said than done in operational reality. Without good arguments, even defense orders will take a back seat for the time being. And then all the materials have to be available. In view of all these imponderables, it is all the more important that politicians finally place their orders.
---------------------------------


WHICH ONE YEAR INTO THE WAR THEY STILL HAVE NOT DONE.

[Skybird]

Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung:
-----------------------------------------


Poland's double game

The tenth sanctions package was supposed to show the EU's unity vis-à-vis Moscow. But Poland presents a proposal that leaves other states stunned - and prevents an agreement for the time being.

The European Union has failed to achieve its goal, which it has been declaring for weeks: to bring the tenth package of sanctions against Russia into force on the anniversary of the invasion of Ukraine. When EU ambassadors met Friday morning for what was presumed to be the final round, the Polish representative put forward a proposal that left others "stunned": within a maximum of 14 months, imports of synthetic rubber from Russia were to gradually drop to zero.

This was a problem for Italy in particular. The tire manufacturer Pirelli depends on these imports. No problem, replied the Poles. There are substitutes on the European market, said their ambassador Andrzej Sados. To be precise: in Poland itself, where the Synthos Group of multi-billionaire Michal Solowow is based, the largest producer of synthetic rubber on the European market.

Some see this as a "double game": on the one hand, Poland is the hardliner when it comes to sanctions against Russia, but on the other hand, it has its own business interests in mind. The Polish side said that this was not an argument. For all import blocks on Russian goods, there are companies in the EU that profit from them.

What was striking, however, was that the Polish proposal came only at the last second - which was interpreted as an attempt to catch them off guard. It would now be negotiated at the highest level, Ambassador Sados announced. Should mean: between the heads of government. Other delegations, however, doubted whether such talks had taken place. The assumption was: Poland is playing high poker, assuming that it will get its way as time runs out.
Germany rejects Poland's account

One more thing Sados said Friday morning: "We are waiting for the final position of two member states that want to continue importing these products from Russia." That referred to Italy and Germany, as explained later. According to the Polish account, the German tire industry has the same interests as the Italian one. This was rejected by the German side. It was made clear two days ago that they could live with just about any compromise. There had been no high-level negotiations with Warsaw.

The EU Commission had proposed on Thursday to limit imports of synthetic rubber to 560,000 tons per year after a transition period of six months. The problem with that: the EU has not imported that much in the past decade. In fact, total Russian exports for this product group were 1.1 million tons in 2021, according to UN figures; of that, a good third went to Europe. Russia generated a total of $1.9 billion in revenue.

Diplomats were waiting Friday for another meeting of ambassadors to be convened. If a compromise was reached by then, the proposal would be formally adopted by written procedure. That will take at least three to four hours. After that, at least another four to five hours are needed, during which the latest status of the decisions is translated into all official languages and checked by legal linguists. Only then can they be published in the Official Journal of the EU and enter into force. It is now impossible that this will happen on Friday, it was said in the afternoon.

Poland had recently attracted negative attention because, contrary to its promise, it continues to import considerable quantities of crude oil from Russia via the northern route of the Druzhba pipeline. The EU Commission had criticized this as a violation last week, as the F.A.Z. reported. Since then, it has come back to the issue in two more meetings, but Warsaw has not been willing to relent.

It argues that these imports could only be stopped if all oil imports by land were sanctioned. The current embargo only covers imports by sea. This, in turn, is mainly due to Hungary's resistance, which has not changed. Critics argue that Warsaw knows this and is hiding behind Budapest.

Actually, the tenth sanctions package with further export and import restrictions was supposed to document the unity of the European Union. In fact, however, the opposite effect occurred on Friday: The wrangling of states over car tires was a reminder of how much all measures are about national interests of the member states.
-------------------------

[Skybird]

DIE WELT
-----------------------

The battle for Bachmut in eastern Ukraine has been going on for months, with Russian troops recently moving ever closer to the town. According to WELT reporters on the ground, many more Ukrainian soldiers may have fallen in the area than officially admitted.

Meanwhile, observations by WELT in the particularly embattled Donbass in the east of the country suggest that not only the Russian but also the Ukrainian casualty figures could be significantly higher than officially admitted.

The Ukrainian military leadership had said Thursday that a total of 145,850 Russian soldiers had been killed since the war began on Feb. 24, 2022, including 790 on Wednesday alone.

The Defense Ministry in Moscow said Friday that attacks were continuing along the front in the eastern Ukrainian region of Donetsk. It said up to 240 Ukrainian soldiers had been killed in the past 24 hours.

Russia had last spoken in December of some 6,000 soldiers killed in its own ranks; more recent figures are not available. American estimates suggest that some 200,000 Russians have either been killed or wounded in Ukraine so far. Conversely, at year's end, the Kremlin spoke of more than 61,000 Ukrainian soldiers killed, while Kiev put that figure at 13,000 casualties in early December.

In recent days, the situation for the Ukrainian army had worsened, particularly in the east of the country. Fierce exchanges of fire have been taking place especially in the town of Bachmut in Donetsk oblast, which has been contested since July.

Since December, Wagner mercenaries have been launching ever new offensives on the formerly 70,000-person town, from which the last remaining residents are currently being evacuated. According to unconfirmed reports, the Russian army is losing several hundred soldiers a day in the advances.

However, Ukraine is also suffering high losses in the defense of the city, as WELT was able to research on the ground. According to medics transporting wounded soldiers from Bachmut to hospitals, 200 wounded arrived at one assembly point alone on Wednesday.

At least five more of these points exist in the area, according to WELT information. Assuming - as military experts do - a ratio of 3.5 to 4 to 1 between the injured and the dead, one would therefore arrive at more than 250 soldiers killed for that day.

This number may sound small compared to the Russian army's estimated casualties, which are many times higher. But according to this calculation - daily fluctuations taken into account - considerably more than 10,000 soldiers could have died in the area in the past three months, during which the Russian army's attacks near Bachmut have intensified.
--------------

In the West the relevance of Bachmut gets always played down and underestimated, I disagree on that. The city is a central fortress in the second defence line the Ukrainians have build in the East, there are three such defence lines. If Bachmut gets lost the ukrainians must fear Russian direct attacks on the third and last defence line, possibly creating and widening a breach.



Also, 20-30 kilometers west of Bachmut are densely populated urban areas that would come under artillery fire if Russian artillery could move into Bachmut and near to the city. I also would point out that a major road supply line, from north to south, runs west of Bachmut that the Russiansd could interdict by artillery strikes then and that plays a crucial role for Ukrainian forces in the whole region, including the second and third defence line in the area.



Bachmut is of very high tactical relevance, I therefore conclude, its the key to the locked second defence line in that region. I strictly disagree with an earlier American assessment from some weeks ago when Washington told Ukraine it should not fight over Bachmut endlessly for it had "no significant strategic value and would not mean a breakthrough". I totally disagree with that, I see that the fall of Bachmut could be the openinng for such a breakthrough in the aftermath of Bachmut's fall.


Its a bit like in chess: the king has castled short, and then f2 or h2 (White), f7 or h7 (Black) get weakened, get put under pressure. A typical tactical threat, leading to certain strategic motivesevery educated chess player must have some ideas about. The threat is positional and thus: structural.

The Ukrainians must find a counter-thread to Bachmut falling. A plan B. If they let the city fall and cannot react to that to get compensation or retake it, then much more than just the surrounding area in the East is at risk. If the Americans do not see that, then I can only scratch my head. My bet is they see it very well and try to distract from it and gloss over the high risk and potential threats there. If they really do not see it, then they would have red too many wrong books. Bachmut is far more important than the media tell us.

[Catfish]

Now they are coming for Berlin :D

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1628413871521251330?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5 Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1628413871521251330%7Ctwgr% 5E5e7e9c5e0a4b4f27a73ad0bc565bb26067371045%7Ctwcon %5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fs9e.github.io%2Fiframe%2Ftwi tter.min.html1628413871521251330

[Skybird]

Germany gets slammed at every Eurovision Song Contest every year and is still there - those singing Russian comrades cannot scare us. :O: We have Volksmusik. And Diether Bohlen. These could peel the eardrums out of any aggressor's ears.

[mapuc]

Germany gets slammed at every Eurovision Song Contest every year and is still there - those singing Russian comrades cannot scare us. :O: We have Volksmusik. And Diether Bohlen. These could peel the eardrums out of any aggressor's ears.

Vielleicht Ein bißchen Frieden jaa :D

Back to serious discussion

Markus

[Jimbuna]

Russia interrupts UN minute's silence

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-europe-64766558

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=70v6RmJj31E

[Jimbuna]

Zelensky will send USA new list of necessary weapons, - head of Congressional Committee on Foreign Affairs McCall

President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky informed the US representatives that he plans to send them a list of weapons that, in his opinion, are necessary to speed up the end of the war with Russia.

Zelensky, who met with House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Michael McCaul and four other House GOP members, told the group he plans to send them a list of weapons, including F-16 fighter jets, that he believes are needed to accelerate the end of the war with Russia, reports Censor.NET with reference to RBC-Ukraine.

"There is broad bipartisan support between the United States, our NATO partners and European allies to support Ukraine against Russian aggression... We had a very productive meeting with President Zelensky. We talked primarily about what his needs are when it comes to winning the this war. And he provides this delegation with a list of weapons that Ukraine needs to win," McCall said. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3402213

Russia stopped supplying oil to Poland through Druzhba pipeline

The largest Polish oil company PKN Orlen SA stopped receiving oil through the Druzhba oil pipeline from Russia.

This was reported by Chief Executive Officer Daniel Obaitek, Censor.NET reports with reference to Economic Pravda.

He noted that only 10% of raw materials were from Russia, which the company plans to replace with other supplies.

Orlen said the supply cut would not affect consumers, which it said it had prepared for. The company did not name the cause of the situation. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3402194

G20 meeting ended without joint statement: they did not agree on formulation of Russian war


The meeting of the G20, held in India, nevertheless ended without a joint statement - due to the reluctance of Russia and China to agree on terms acceptable to the other regarding the Russian Federation’s war against Ukraine.

This is reported by Censor.NET with reference to "Euro Integration".

India, as the presiding country, itself published the final document. It included fragments from the declaration of the November G20 summit in Bali and noted that paragraphs 3 and 4 were agreed to by all participants except Russia and China.

The 3rd paragraph mentions UN resolutions condemning Russia's aggression against Ukraine and demanding the immediate and unconditional withdrawal of Russian troops from the territory of Ukraine.

"The majority of participants strongly condemn the war in Ukraine and emphasize that it is causing enormous human suffering and deepening problems in the global economy, hampering growth, accelerating inflation, disrupting supply chains, increasing risks in the energy and food sectors, increasing the risks of financial instability. Other views and assessments of the situation and sanctions were also heard. The G20 is not a platform for solving security problems, but we recognize that they can significantly affect the global economy," this part of the document states.

Paragraph 4 emphasizes that it is extremely important to ensure compliance with international law and a multilateral system for ensuring peace and stability, including respect for the principles of the UN Charter and the protection of civilians and infrastructure in armed conflicts.

"The use or threat of nuclear weapons is unacceptable. Peaceful conflict resolution, crisis response efforts, diplomacy and dialogue are vital. Our era must not be an era of war," the document states. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3402193

[Jimbuna]

Putin will eventually be killed by inner circle, says Zelensky

As Russia is subject to increasingly tough economic sanctions, Putin's regime will become ever more fragile and provoke his rivals to get rid of him, he told the journalist Dmytro Komarov in a documentary.

"There will certainly be a moment when the fragility of Putin’s regime is felt in Russia," he said.

"Then carnivores will eat a carnivore. It is very important, and they will need a reason to justify this.

They will remember. They will find a reason to kill a killer.

Will it work? Yes. When? I don’t know."

Putin keeps a close circle, impenetrable but to a few close advisers whose loyalty stretches back decades. However, a rift has emerged between the Russian army and the Wagner mercenaries as each blames the other for failures on the battlefield while trying to claim credit for triumphs for themselves.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/putin-will-eventually-be-killed-by-inner-circle-says-zelensky/ar-AA17UZ6q?ocid=mailsignout&pc=U591&cvid=7d643e02374b41938bec036c81f357d4

[August]

Who are the nazis in this conflict again?


https://i.imgur.com/JSSJfyj.jpg

[Dargo]

I so then I have missed why they have a globalisation problems since so many years. Where are the overwhelming majority of quantities of rare earths located? Which country is the pharmacy of the world? What place is the global hotspot of chip production that, if stopping, would bring the global economy to a standstill? Which country, that gets heavily sanctioned currently, nevertheless exports ressources as if there was no war raging, and forms ties with thankful third world countries who now can afford these ressources? Which countries have no problems with shrinkling workforces, both low-education labour and specialised expert jobs? - China. Russia. India. Taiwan. Russia. Asia.

The big economic players in South America and Africa are Brazil, South Africa, and Kenya, Nigeria. Two of these belong to the BRICS club. And BRICS is not about being friends with the Western economies. BRICS is a dedicated anti-Western economic alliance.

Both China and India each have a population of 1.4 trillion. Thats where the future music plays.

If we could switch production to other places that easily and quickly and stay competitive nevertehless (which we can't), we already would have done so. Plus some of us are big exporters ourselves, namely Germany. We need these countries to buy our stuff.Beijing tries not to offend Europe too much, so as not to jeopardize trade and imports of technology. And it continues to bash on NATO and the US, in order to undermine the current world order. Whether China will become the biggest? In this kind of reasoning, we are talking about the short term. But we are talking about things like productivity, efficiency, education and infrastructure. How is the middle class developing; is China going to produce more innovatively and at a higher quality. Those are much more important long-term issues. If we look at per capita income, it is far below that of most Western countries in China. It will certainly remain so in the coming decades. Both China and India each have a population of 1.4 trillion, but are their income per capita enough? No India is not going to develop economically with its current government and caste system and china is still a poor peasant republic with economic zones, to keep those peasants cowed the party has to act very shrewdly. There are so many factors than population number to say that will be the biggest market.

[Dargo]

Potential russian tank reserves are in the thousands. And they are active on ALL their backyards where they mothballed them. The Russian already have lost more tanks than all NATO countries in Europe have in service alltogether.
Russia may have around 17,300 tanks produced between the late 1950s and now on paper. In reality, nobody, likely not even Russia, knows precisely how many of those estimated thousands can emerge from the mothballs and be made operational again. An analysis of Google Maps satellite images of 19 Russian military storage facilities mainly located east of Russia’s Ural Mountains by the Ukrainian Military Center, a Ukrainian military defense news site, estimates that 2,299 tanks appear unrestorable. Stored in the open for decades, they are basically heaps of rusty scrap metal ready for nothing but disposal. Another estimated 1,304 machines are thought to be in a dubious state those are tanks that can be potentially restored at tank maintenance facilities, but this would take a lot of time. Another 2,075 tanks seem recoverable, although some would likely need to be taken to tank factories. An estimated 886 tanks are effectively stored and are likely to be made fully operational. Many Russian bases also have hangars, which may store up to around 1,330 tanks -- in unknown conditions and quantities. Tanks stored in Russia (and Ukraine, too) have been subject to poor conditions, plundering, and cannibalization when a tank is repaired at the expense of other tanks, from which parts are dismantled.

The Russian (Iranian) drones are primitive maybe, but right that is what makes them militarily valuable - to maintain them you do not send them back to the factory, but you have the soldier in the trench improvising a solution and get it working again. It is about the use of your weapon using like the Russian do is failed in military sense they did not achieve their goal to destroy the Ukraine energy system an energy system you can also hack (SCADA) much cheaper Ukraine uses their drones on the front to destroy tanks, artillery, APC's and other I think you gain more with that tactic than trying to do genocide.

Russian income from selling rsesseruces did not implode as was expected in the west last year. In fatc they camke better through the inflaiton and eco9nomic crisi8s than amynbWetsenr countries. When nowadays I hgear media saying the Russi soon will pay th eeocnom ic price, then I think two thingS: first, it will be the normal people doping so and that are people Russioan government never have cared for, and seocnd, its wishful thzinling. Russia will not become unable to fiannc eits war. Yoiu can wait til hell freezes over, it will not happen.

Production in Russian factories is cheaper, workers earn lower wages. The same defence budgets gets you more ships and missiles in Russia, than in Wetsenr countries. What the Ukraine does not have, are: time, and money. They are completely depending on the good will of donators. Much of the American aids for example are no donations at all, but credits.
For production, Russia need the amount of workforce they do not have, they already had problems before the war with that. And Russian workforce still is "They pretend they are paying us, and we pretend we are working" indifference to the quality of their work theft from workplaces propensity to drink.

You always see it more rosy. I always see it more grim. :) If the truth would be in the middle, that already would be an improvement, but I think in reality things are not even there. And at least in case of Germany I am very sure of that. The new defenc emonister may want to do thigns fatserk, but he too must fight the petrified system, and the stubborn pacifists both in the SPD and the Greens. Media poaiont it as if the Greens are all for more wepaons and chase the SPD in front of them, but that is only on e half of the truth. There is a wing called "Realos" that indeed want much more aid for Ukraine, but the Greens by core and genes are an extrnely leftist, Maoist and poacifistic party, and always were that. There is very strong resistence to more defence spendings. And in the SPD anyway, plus the SPD's traditional Russophilia. there is some very strict opposition in both parties to do more regarding military things.We Dutch had MH-17 under current PM, I see them do everything to organize support for Ukraine.

[Dargo]

Who are the nazis in this conflict again?


https://i.imgur.com/JSSJfyj.jpgOh there are many of these examples in the Russian army, not surprised real Rus think they are ubermench how further away from Moscow, St Petersburg how lower in mench you become.

[Dargo]

One year of sanctions: how is Russia's economy holding up for now?
Since President Putin launched his so-called "special military operation" in Ukraine, Russia has been one of the most sanctioned countries in the world. Just yesterday, EU member states agreed on a tenth sanctions package. Many economists predicted a complete collapse of the Russian economy. Manufacturing would grind to a halt because of the ban on buying Russian goods. There would be a major banking crisis, and oil and gas revenues would evaporate. People in the West also expected large-scale protests and unrest among the Russian people. Many of these predictions have not come true now, a year later, as yet. Natalya Zubievich, a 68-year-old professor of economics at Moscow State University, explains how this is possible.

"We were all wrong," says Zubievich. She, too, predicted the demise of the Russian economy. "It was the first time Russia had had such large-scale sanctions imposed, and nobody knew how the economy and business would adjust. We were not optimistic." But on reflection, she calls it an illusion to think that sanctions could devastate the entire Russian economy. "Russia is a big country, with a huge amount of resources. The world is big, and there are always alternatives." She also says sanctions can never change a political regime. Zubarevich explained that Russia's economy has been trying to disengage from the West since 2014. Back then, the country had sanctions imposed on it following its annexation of Crimea. To counter this, Russia replaced many Western products with domestic ones, or had goods imported from other, non-Western countries. Russia has also been unable to access its foreign assets since 2014. "So Russia already had experience, and was prepared for tougher sanctions," he said.

According to Zubarevich, it is naive of the West to expect major consequences because the sanctions were introduced so gradually. According to her, the sanctions that hit Russia hardest were imposed far too late to have their intended effect. "Only in December did you start the oil boycott. That gave Russian business a lot of time to prepare properly, factor in all the risks and focus on other markets." Things did change in the street scene. Western shops are still largely closed, with signs reading "due to technical circumstances, we are temporarily closed". Some chains have now been replaced by Russian variants. For instance, McDonald's has become 'Tasty, full stop' and Starbucks has been replaced by Stars Coffee. Many products and goods are still available, contrary to expectations. Most sanctions are now circumvented by parallel imports. Almost everything now enters the country through China, Turkey, Dubai, Armenia and Kazakhstan. "That's called business. If people want to make money, and with this they can make lol, they always find ways," Zubievich said.

Although most economists expect that it could be another three to four years before Russia's treasury is so empty that it has major consequences, the next few years will also be tough, according to Zoebarevich. Either way, years of stagnation and slow decline are coming, she says. "Since the mobilization, half a million people have left. That is a huge loss of human capital. Some of them are returning, but how many?" She foresees the biggest problems for the federal budget. "The loss of oil and gas revenues will definitely hurt. The budget deficit will widen. The state is spending much more on the military and defense, and that will be at the expense of education or healthcare, for example." Asked why Russians are not, as was expected in the West, protesting en masse against the sanctions, she responded with irritation. "I get so tired of that question. Take to the streets yourself. Will you in the West also be immediately arrested or bludgeoned by the police if you protest? I don't think so."

Not only state repression plays a major role, but also the fatalism of Russian residents, and their ability to adapt. Russian incomes are expected to fall by 3 per cent in the coming years. "That's not much. And it won't kill anyone. Russians are used to their incomes falling during crises. They resign themselves to it, they will do so until the end." We should not forget that almost a quarter of Russia's population is poor, or living near the poverty line, she says. And many Russians are also weighed down by heavy pressure from their high loans. But Zubievich does not see a moment when they have had enough: "Most of Russia is simply trying to survive. We remember well what a repressive state can do. That fear is passed on from generation to generation. In a country where repression is only increasing, there are no more red lines."

https://nos.nl/collectie/13924/artikel/2465273-een-jaar-sancties-hoe-kan-het-dat-de-russische-economie-vooralsnog-standhoudt

[mapuc]

Not every person in Europe is happy about the situation where their leaders sent weapon and ammo to Ukraine.

Thousand of people had gathered in Berlin to demonstrate against German leaders and the sending of weapon to Ukraine

Thousands of people have taken part in a demonstration in central Berlin to protest against giving more weapons to Ukraine, urging the German government to deescalate the crisis by paving the way for negotiations with Vladimir Putin instead

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/25/thousands-protest-in-berlin-against-giving-weapons-to-ukraine

Markus

[Dargo]

Not every person in Europe is happy about the situation where their leaders sent weapon and ammo to Ukraine.

Thousand of people had gathered in Berlin to demonstrate against German leaders and the sending of weapon to Ukraine



https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/25/thousands-protest-in-berlin-against-giving-weapons-to-ukraine

MarkusThe far left, and the far right find each other in Germany around the war in Ukraine. The right because of an overall dislike of the government, its politics and democracy as a whole, and an apparent admiration of autocrats like Putin. The Left historically has more sympathy for Russia than for the capitalist, 'imperialist' West and NATO. Die Linke disapproves of arms aid to Ukraine, but also demands that Russia withdraw its troops. This is not echoed in Wagenknecht's appeal. It merely calls for 'negotiations' a force measurement of the clout that the ambitious Wagenknecht may begin to have on the German political stage.

[Skybird]

Not every person in Europe is happy about the situation where their leaders sent weapon and ammo to Ukraine.

Thousand of people had gathered in Berlin to demonstrate against German leaders and the sending of weapon to Ukraine

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/25/thousands-protest-in-berlin-against-giving-weapons-to-ukraine

Markus


Pfffft.

Here is a picture from my hometown, the simultaneously held "support demonstration" for the Berlin one.



https://asc-images.forward-publishing.io/2023/02/25/55909913-1da0-43ff-a811-11721b2f7395.jpeg?w=1024&auto=format

[Jimbuna]

Ukraine has issued postage stamps featuring a mural by renowned UK graffiti artist Banksy to mark the first anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion.

The mural depicts a man resembling Russian President Vladimir Putin being flipped during a judo match with a young boy.

The original art is on a house that was devastated by Russian shelling in the town of Borodyanka, near the capital Kyiv.

A phrase with an abbreviated expletive addressing the Russian leader has been added to the bottom left corner of the stamps.

https://i.postimg.cc/50n17hxG/Untitled.jpg (https://postimages.org/)

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9FLjxIuH7v4

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GtA9LhPk4D0

[Skybird]

Not every person in Europe is happy about the situation where their leaders sent weapon and ammo to Ukraine.

Thousand of people had gathered in Berlin to demonstrate against German leaders and the sending of weapon to Ukraine

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/25/thousands-protest-in-berlin-against-giving-weapons-to-ukraine

Markus



13,000 participants, and the Nazi and conspiracy ideological slime to be expected. The Daily Mirror:
------------------------------


Old familiar or new movement?: Who the "Uprising for Peace" actually attracted

Sahra Wagenknecht and Alice Schwarzer dream of a new peace movement after their demonstration. But it is unclear what this would look like in concrete terms.

At the end of their joint gathering, Sahra Wagenknecht and Alice Schwarzer dream of something much bigger. "This is clearly the beginning of a citizens' movement," analyzes Schwarzer, a women's rights activist. People now want to start organizing, announced Wagenknecht, a left-wing politician.

According to police, about 13,000 people followed the two women to Berlin's government district on Saturday to demonstrate for an immediate stop to German arms deliveries to Ukraine and diplomatic negotiations. Both Wagenknecht and Schwarzer see the demonstration as the starting signal for a new political movement. But what would this look like in concrete terms?

To answer this question, it is helpful to take a close look at the participants in the Berlin "peace demonstration." Particularly striking was the advanced age of many demonstrators; young people were hardly to be seen. Similar to the protests of the Querdenken movement, the so-called boomer generation predominated in the spectrum of participants. Thousands of supporters of the Left Party and members of the peace movement gathered in front of the stage in particular.

Not necessarily dominating, but nevertheless present and tolerated in relatively high numbers were conspiracy ideologues and lateral thinkers. Thus, numerous symbols of the "Basis" party were to be seen, individual demonstrators demanded on posters the release of Querdenken founder Michael Ballweg.

Participants carried flags of the far-right "Free Saxons" or the Brandenburg offshoot "Free Brandenburgers". In addition, there were well-known actors of the scene such as the Dresden head of Querdenken, Marcus Fuchs, the Berlin doctor Paul Brandenburg or Putin propagandist Vyacheslav Seewald, who stretched a flag of the Soviet Union into the sky.

At least a thousand former participants of the Wagenknecht demonstration joined another protest at Potsdamer Platz after the rally ended. This was dominated by right-wing and conspiracy ideological groups and was apparently also registered.

Although an attempt was made at the beginning of the Wagenknecht demonstration to push the editor-in-chief of the far-right "Compact" magazine, Jürgen Elsässer, out of the demonstration, this did not really work. A little later, "Compact" flags also appeared in front of the stage on the Straße des 17. Juni.

At the same time, numerous AfD politicians, such as the Saxon state chairman Jörg Urban, the Berlin member of parliament Gunnar Lindemann, Hans-Thomas Tillschneider from Saxony-Anhalt and the Brandenburg members of parliament Lars Hünich and Lars Günther, were on site. On some posters NS-glorifying slogans were to be read.
Racist insults against Ukrainians

Although the Wagenknecht demonstration remained peaceful on the whole, there were always clashes with pro-Ukrainian counter-demonstrators, especially during the arrival and departure.

In front of the Russian Embassy, there were not only verbal conflicts, but also physical attacks on people with Ukrainian symbols.

In addition, there were racist attacks against Ukrainian refugees who were demonstrating on the central strip of the boulevard Unter den Linden. Several times the phrase "**** off from our country" was heard.

Overall, the audience at Wagenknecht and Schwarzer's event was reminiscent, at least in part, of the spectrum of so-called "peace vigils" that marked the beginning of a cross-front from the right and left in 2014.

In this respect, it is at least questionable whether Sahra Wagenknecht and Alice Schwarzer's demonstration on Saturday actually marked the start of a new peace movement or rather brought an old, long-forgotten one back onto the streets and united it.
-------------------


Meanwhile, the Nazi and AfD state chairman Björn Höcke has offered Sarah Wagenknecht membership in the AfD.

[Skybird]

The Slovakian non-governmental organization Globsec has analyzed why Ukraine is standing up to Russia - and what NATO can learn from it.
------------------------


The war in Ukraine has been raging for a year. Russia's quick victory, which the Kremlin had hoped for, failed to materialize. It is also clear that Ukraine will not give up - and will not allow itself to be taken over. That is the conclusion of a paper by the Slovak non-governmental organization Globsac, based in Bratislava. It has analyzed where Ukraine's steadfastness comes from and what NATO can learn from it.

"Russia continues its war of aggression against Ukraine, but its forces are already defeated. In the face of Ukrainian resistance and the support of its allies, Russia has achieved almost none of its military objectives," says the paper, which included contributions from Nico Lange, former head of the management staff at the German Defense Ministry and now a lecturer in war studies at the University of Potsdam. "Obviously, Ukraine will prevail," conclude the authors, who include Carlo-Antonio Masala, professor of international politics at the University of the Armed Forces in Munich.

The scholars list ten reasons why Russia will have no chance of defeating Ukraine even in the medium term. Two factors are key, Lange and his colleagues say: "Ukraine has involved the whole of society in defending its country," the paper says . In addition, the country has demonstrated "excellent military leadership capabilities."

"Exceptional courage, creativity, amazing pragmatism and improvisational skills" have been at the "forefront of Ukraine's defense capability," he said. Militaries in NATO countries could learn from Ukraine, the scholars believe:

1. Ukraine involved the entire society in the defense of its country.

NATO must learn from this, the researchers urge - and make basic military training and basic medical care accessible to the wider society.

In addition, strategies must be developed to be able to draw on civilians in the event of war. This includes holding regular simulations and exercises at the local and regional level and forming defense groups.

Local decision-makers such as mayors should also receive crisis and defense training. Digital infrastructures to quickly search for civilian data in an emergency would have to be created.

2 War is data-based - Ukraine has understood this.

Full data access and Internet capability are crucial to winning a modern war, the study's authors conclude. Robust satellite links should facilitate strategic operations and enable faster deployments. Innovation and procurement of appropriate technologies should be encouraged, the paper adds.

3 Ukrainian armed forces often operate in decentralized networks - with success

Unlike Russia with its hierarchical top-down structure, the Ukrainians have organized themselves into decentralized networks. This allows troops to respond - and act - more quickly to local conditions.

Flexible and agile troops, trimmed for speed and adaptability, are needed. Instead of detailed military planning and tight hierarchical decision-making, militaries would have to coordinate and decide verbally more often. Network thinking and matrix structures instead of old patterns are necessary to be able to react quickly and efficiently to a war of aggression. For this, it must also be possible to transfer responsibility to non-commissioned officers.

4. Ukraine determines the battlefield through targeted attacks on logistics, command and control, and communications

NATO and armed forces in Europe should improve the mobility of their armies, expand small and medium combat forces and train them accordingly to increase the speed and precision of their attacks: This is the only way to be superior to the overwhelming power of enemy forces, he said.

5. Ukrainians use drones en masse and for many purposes.

The authors of the study recommend that European armed forces should also rely much more on the use of drones. This, they say, can be done by using commercial drones for military purposes - in addition to military drones. In addition, simple and low-cost drones would need to be developed to be less dependent on Chinese commercial drones. The military must be trained to use the drones, the researchers also urge. Investment in drone defense systems is also urgently needed, they add.

6. Ukrainian armed forces achieved major successes with small forces

Infantry battalions for mobile combat operations need to be reintroduced. Training for urban warfare tactics and commando operations would be needed. The necessary equipment and production facilities for anti-tank, anti-aircraft and anti-drone operations would have to be built. In addition, the military needs more targeted training in how to dismantle enemy infantry.

7 Ukraine celebrates artillery renaissance

NATO should do the same, the study's authors urge. Specifically, the researchers recommend deploying larger mobile artillery. Above all, production capacities for the necessary ammunition should be increased. Existing artillery should be more digitized and AI-controlled models should also be developed.

Here, too, drones should be used for target acquisition and fire control. In addition, counter-attack defenses should be improved, he said. "Equip, train and practice to kill at high speed with maximum mobility and maximum precision" should be the goal to be prepared for ambush wars, he said. Stockpiles of munitions and the logistics behind them must be secured, the study adds.

8 Infrastructure such as rail transport is the backbone of the Ukrainian armed forces

NATO and its member states should make commercial transport more crisis-proof: Extensive reserves of equipment, trained personnel, emergency repair capacity and stockpiles of spare parts should be created, the researchers advise.

These should be financed by government crisis funds. This would include exercises to carry out such repairs at night and under realistic wartime conditions, the paper adds.

9 Strict secrecy and successful deception make the difference

Here, too, NATO has some catching up to do in the authors' eyes and should intensify training under realistic conditions. Internal bureaucratic procedures would have to be simplified, and an institutional culture of broad participation and awareness would be necessary. The security of operations would have to be constantly weighed against civilian and parliamentary oversight.

10 Ukraine won the information war with the best stories

NATO can do the same, the authors believe. To do so, the structure and content of strategic communications in the armed forces of NATO member states would have to be radically transformed. Media production capabilities would have to be expanded to produce much more high-quality content. This would include making faster decisions and granting greater freedom in communications.

https://www.focus.de/politik/ausland/ukrainekrieg-zehn-gruende-weshalb-die-ukraine-russland-besiegen-kann_id_186794680.html

-------------------

[Jimbuna]

We will judge China by its actions, not by its statements, - Pistorius

German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said that China’s "peace plans" to end Russia’s war in Ukraine must be accompanied by appropriate actions.

He said this in an interview with Deutschlandfunk, Censor.NET reports with reference to "Euro Integration".

"The Chinese will not decide who will conduct the negotiations. I welcome the Chinese proposal, in particular as an initiative, but now there must be action. China is influencing Russia. When I hear reports - I don't know if this is true - that China is allegedly planning to supply Russia with drones -kamikaze at the same time as the presentation of the peace plan, I would suggest that we judge China by its actions, not by its statements. But, first of all, this is only a twelve-point document, and there should be more," Pistorius said.

The minister also noted that he has no information that China is going to supply Russia with weapons.

"If that's the case - I don't have any other information - it would be a depressing development that would certainly call into question the credibility of China. And it's unlikely to go along with a ceasefire proposal," he added. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3402334

Leopard tanks are provided to Ukraine for defense, not offense against Russia, - Spanish Defense Minister Robles

Spanish Defense Minister Margarita Robles said that Leopard tanks are being transferred to Ukraine only for defense, not for offensive operations.

She said this in an interview with La Vanguardia, reports Censor.NЕТ with reference to "European truth"

"There are several series of Leopard: 2A4 and 2A6. The 2A4 tanks, which were stored in Zaragoza in deplorable conditions, are now being repaired. This will allow us to include them in the battalion along with tanks donated by other countries. At the same time, we have already started training the crews of these tanks and the teams that will be engaged in their maintenance. I insist a lot that the Leopards have an exclusive purpose: defense, not aggression against Russia," Robles said.

She also ruled out the participation of the Spanish military in hostilities on the territory of Ukraine.

"This is an absolutely impossible scenario; it does not exist. Spanish soldiers would intervene only in case of aggression against a NATO country. Never, never, not a single soldier from a NATO country, and Spain is one of them, will go to participate in the war in Ukraine. Never, never. I want to say this very clearly, very clearly," the Minister said. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3402353

[Jimbuna]

US will never recognize occupation of Crimea - State Department

The U.S. State Department reiterated that it has not and will never recognize Russia’s claim of annexation of Crimea and welcomed the efforts of the Crimean Platform, which reminds the world of the occupation of the peninsula.

This is stated in the оfficial statement of State Department "Crimea is Ukraine," released on Sunday, reports Censor.NЕТ with reference to Ukrinform.

"Nine years ago, Russia invaded Ukraine and seized Crimea, in violation of international law, Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity," the statement reads.

In this regard, it is emphasized that the United States "welcomes the efforts of the Ukrainian Crimean Platform", which focuses the attention of the international community on the continuation of the Russian occupation.

"The United States does not and will never recognize Russia's claimed annexation of the peninsula. Crimea is Ukraine," the U.S. Department of State emphasized. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3402354

Russia offered Iran help with missile program in exchange for weapons, - CIA chief Burns

Today, on February 26, CIA Director William Burns said that there is evidence that Russia offered to help Iran with its missile program in exchange for military assistance.

The CIA director noted that the alliance between Russia and Iran is developing rapidly, and he called this narrative "disturbing", reports Censor.NЕТ with reference to RBC-Ukraine.

"It's moving quite rapidly in a very dangerous direction right now, in the sense that we know that the Iranians have already provided the Russians with hundreds of armed drones that they are using to inflict pain on Ukrainian civilians. We know they have provided ammunition for artillery and tanks," Burns said.

He said that the CIA also sees signs that Russia is offering to help the Iranians with their missile program and is at least considering providing fighter jets to Iran in exchange for military assistance in their invasion. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3402356

[Jimbuna]

We have to make sure that we are as powerful as possible both informationally and diplomatically, - Zelensky

President Volodymyr Zelensky met with the "United News" TV marathon on the occasion of its anniversary and emphasized the need to make Ukraine’s information and diplomatic capacity as powerful as possible and its position absolutely clear in all parts of the world.

As reports Censor.NЕТ, this was stated in his evening video appeal.

"Today, I met with representatives of our Ukrainian television, the Ukrainian television marathon "United News". Journalists, editors, producers. It was a very informative online meeting. The reason for the meeting was the anniversary of the marathon and gratitude to everyone who worked on it. But the content was much broader. We talked about strengthening the information work of our state and society. This is especially true for those parts of the world where our diplomacy has not been represented for decades for various reasons," Zelensky said.

According to him, "now we have to make sure that we are as powerful as possible in terms of information and diplomacy, so that Ukraine's position is absolutely clear in all parts of the world."

"This is important in our work to ensure the de-occupation of the territory and our planned active actions. The more people know about Ukraine, the more they understand Ukraine, the more they support Ukraine. And the closer our victory becomes," the Head of State emphasized.

He thanked everyone who works in the marathon and creates "this information foundation of our national unity."

"Thank you for the constant search for new methods of work for those who are now in the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine, for finding new ways to access our people in Donetsk, Luhansk, the south of the country and Crimea. It is very important that Russia has not managed to shut down our people and our land in the part of Ukraine where the terrorists' tricolor is still present. We have to do everything we can to ensure that our people have more access to truthful information," Zelensky said. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3402359

[Dargo]

13,000 participants, and the Nazi and conspiracy ideological slime to be expected. The Daily Mirror:
------------------------------


Old familiar or new movement?: Who the "Uprising for Peace" actually attracted

Sahra Wagenknecht and Alice Schwarzer dream of a new peace movement after their demonstration. But it is unclear what this would look like in concrete terms.

At the end of their joint gathering, Sahra Wagenknecht and Alice Schwarzer dream of something much bigger. "This is clearly the beginning of a citizens' movement," analyzes Schwarzer, a women's rights activist. People now want to start organizing, announced Wagenknecht, a left-wing politician.

According to police, about 13,000 people followed the two women to Berlin's government district on Saturday to demonstrate for an immediate stop to German arms deliveries to Ukraine and diplomatic negotiations. Both Wagenknecht and Schwarzer see the demonstration as the starting signal for a new political movement. But what would this look like in concrete terms?

To answer this question, it is helpful to take a close look at the participants in the Berlin "peace demonstration." Particularly striking was the advanced age of many demonstrators; young people were hardly to be seen. Similar to the protests of the Querdenken movement, the so-called boomer generation predominated in the spectrum of participants. Thousands of supporters of the Left Party and members of the peace movement gathered in front of the stage in particular.

Not necessarily dominating, but nevertheless present and tolerated in relatively high numbers were conspiracy ideologues and lateral thinkers. Thus, numerous symbols of the "Basis" party were to be seen, individual demonstrators demanded on posters the release of Querdenken founder Michael Ballweg.

Participants carried flags of the far-right "Free Saxons" or the Brandenburg offshoot "Free Brandenburgers". In addition, there were well-known actors of the scene such as the Dresden head of Querdenken, Marcus Fuchs, the Berlin doctor Paul Brandenburg or Putin propagandist Vyacheslav Seewald, who stretched a flag of the Soviet Union into the sky.

At least a thousand former participants of the Wagenknecht demonstration joined another protest at Potsdamer Platz after the rally ended. This was dominated by right-wing and conspiracy ideological groups and was apparently also registered.

Although an attempt was made at the beginning of the Wagenknecht demonstration to push the editor-in-chief of the far-right "Compact" magazine, Jürgen Elsässer, out of the demonstration, this did not really work. A little later, "Compact" flags also appeared in front of the stage on the Straße des 17. Juni.

At the same time, numerous AfD politicians, such as the Saxon state chairman Jörg Urban, the Berlin member of parliament Gunnar Lindemann, Hans-Thomas Tillschneider from Saxony-Anhalt and the Brandenburg members of parliament Lars Hünich and Lars Günther, were on site. On some posters NS-glorifying slogans were to be read.
Racist insults against Ukrainians

Although the Wagenknecht demonstration remained peaceful on the whole, there were always clashes with pro-Ukrainian counter-demonstrators, especially during the arrival and departure.

In front of the Russian Embassy, there were not only verbal conflicts, but also physical attacks on people with Ukrainian symbols.

In addition, there were racist attacks against Ukrainian refugees who were demonstrating on the central strip of the boulevard Unter den Linden. Several times the phrase "**** off from our country" was heard.

Overall, the audience at Wagenknecht and Schwarzer's event was reminiscent, at least in part, of the spectrum of so-called "peace vigils" that marked the beginning of a cross-front from the right and left in 2014.

In this respect, it is at least questionable whether Sahra Wagenknecht and Alice Schwarzer's demonstration on Saturday actually marked the start of a new peace movement or rather brought an old, long-forgotten one back onto the streets and united it.
-------------------


Meanwhile, the Nazi and AfD state chairman Björn Höcke has offered Sarah Wagenknecht membership in the AfD.Is that pool not the same we have seen with Covid protests in the Netherlands we see them trying to coopt new protest not for those new causes but only to protest their own idea's

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EGJOF9nsLVo

[Skybird]

Is that pool not the same we have seen with Covid protests in the Netherlands we see them trying to coopt new protest not for those new causes but only to protest their own idea's
Yes it is. Over here they are called "Querdenker".

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cmLKMkURu7U

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JZb9TFftY6k

[Rockstar]

People Forgot How War Actually Works

Armed conflict is never straightforward. Weapons are not power. National identity matters.

By Phillips Payson O’Brien

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/02/russia-ukraine-war-one-year-national-identity/673192/

FEBRUARY 24, 2023, 5:30 AM ET

Although the consequences of Russia’s terrible war in Ukraine will unfold over decades, three lessons from the conflict are already clear—and, in retrospect, should have been apparent all along. When the invasion began, a year ago today, much of the outside commentary focused on Russia’s advantages. President Vladimir Putin’s military was widely said to have overwhelming airpower and firepower, a fast-moving ground force, and extensive cyberwarfare capacity—all of which supposedly meant that Russia would rapidly conquer its neighbor. Its purported strengths seemed so great that when Russian forces were only just crossing the border, some analysts were musing about which pro-Moscow Ukrainian politician might lead a puppet regime in Kyiv.

Yet the first lesson of the past 12 months is that war is rarely easy or straightforward—which is why starting one is almost always the wrong decision for any nation. The United States has made war look simple at times, most obviously in 1991, when Operation Desert Storm dislodged Iraqi forces from Kuwait in a month and a half. Yet that victory was possible only after a decade-long U.S.-military buildup and with the deployment of the world’s most advanced military technologies. Even then, a defining feature of the Gulf War was that the U.S. did not try to occupy another society. When the opportunity to march on Baghdad presented itself, President George H. W. Bush’s administration held back.

In the three decades since, the United States, despite boasting the world’s largest economy and most powerful armed forces, has generally proved unable to translate its dominance into quick victories, ending up instead in protracted conflicts with at best mixed results. Wars start quickly but end messily. No one really knows how armies, technologies, and economic resources will behave when thrown into kinetic competition. Plans fail, confusion takes hold, and military advances give way to periods of stalemate.

Read: How and when the war in Ukraine will end. https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2023/02/forecasting-end-of-ukraine-war-one-year-later/673159/

The past year in Ukraine is far more typical of war than Desert Storm was. Russia’s overwhelming power was anything but; instead of unleashing modern war on the Ukrainians, Russia relied on antiquated weaponry and command structures. Instead of taking Kyiv within weeks, Russian forces experienced major system breakdowns. Since then, Russia’s problems seem to have gotten worse. Putin has changed commanders like socks, equipment quality has degraded, and the number of casualties has skyrocketed. Now Russian and Ukrainian forces are facing each other in long lines of blood-soaked trenches, and Putin has little prospect of ending the war on his terms.

And though one side in a conflict almost never simply overpowers the other, the risk of failure is especially high for a deeply flawed power such as Russia. The second lesson of the current war is that military power is not the foundation of national power but rather the product of the economic, technological, political, and social factors that shape a nation’s armed forces. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is sometimes portrayed as pitting a great power against a small power. In Western policy circles, the dominance of Russia experts—many of whom have spent their career viewing Russia as a regional hegemon and its neighbors primarily as post-Soviet states—contributed to this framing of events.

Russia is indisputably a nuclear power, but by virtually all other measures, it lags considerably behind its reputation. Russia’s economy is seriously flawed. Its GDP ranks about tenth in the world and is less than one-tenth the size of America’s. Creating much of its wealth through resource extraction, Russia makes few high-technology products and indeed little else of any real value. Socially, Russia—where the population is shrinking and life expectancy is relatively low—exhibits signs of great distress. Politically, it has ossified under a dictator who has consolidated his hold on his country by tolerating corruption among those close to the throne.

In other words, today’s Russian military is the product of a declining kleptocracy, not of a great power. Yet even observers who perceive the factors sapping Russian power underestimate their importance relative to the squadrons of military equipment that the country’s decaying social structure has managed to create.

By overlooking Russia’s systemic weaknesses, Western analysts helped create the mess that democratic nations find themselves in today. The presumption, based on weaponry counts, that Ukraine was far too weak to resist Russia in open combat delayed the provision of significant military aid to the beleaguered nation. This was a perverse circular argument: Because Russia is strong and Ukraine is weak, we should withhold assistance from Ukraine.

Fortunately, that argument has proved impossible to sustain. A third lesson of this war—and many others since 1945—is that underestimating the importance of national identity leads to military disaster. By conventional criteria, Ukraine is far stronger relative to today’s Russia than Afghanistan was relative to the U.S.S.R. in the 1980s—and than North Vietnam was to the U.S. in the 1960s. Both Cold War superpowers were humbled by their attempts to suppress local resistance by force, and both had to withdraw.

Eliot A. Cohen: Military history doesn’t say what Ukraine’s critics think. https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/02/russia-ukraine-war-wwii-comparison/673053/

Nevertheless, in the prelude to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and for much of last year, many in the West failed to appreciate how much Ukrainians value their independence and their democracy. Some Russia-focused scholars seemed to have accepted Moscow’s view of Ukraine as a weak, artificial entity with shallow popular support. Skeptics of NATO support for Kyiv focused on Ukrainian corruption (while conveniently ignoring the impact of corruption on Russian power). In the most extreme cases, some analysts even doubted that the Ukrainians would care enough to sustain an insurgency against Russian military occupiers.

Such judgments and doubts now look foolish. Ukrainian identity was strong and resolute from the start. Many analysts overlooked the military advantages that democracies—even imperfect democracies—have over dictatorships. Although the former frequently appear messy and divided when they are under threat, they can react more forcefully, flexibly, and intelligently in part because their citizens feel empowered to improvise and show initiative as combat circumstances change. That pattern has held true in Ukraine. Despite initially having fewer advanced weapons, Ukraine fought back hard, inflicting deep consequences on Russia, which has lost an estimated half of the main battle tanks it possessed at the start of the war.

The results are so stark that certain commentators who previously downplayed Ukraine’s chances seem to have changed their mind. Former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, who has argued that the nation should remain neutral between the West and Russia, was insisting last year that Kyiv make territorial concessions. Earlier this year, he expressed support for Ukrainian membership in NATO.

The three lessons of the past year—war is never straightforward; power is not based on weapons; national identity has military value—should come as a relief to supporters of democracy. The great tragedy is that they had to be relearned in the first place.

[Jimbuna]

How Russia took the south - and then got stuck

By Abdujalil Abdurasulov
BBC News, Mykolaiv

When Russia invaded Ukraine a year ago, one of the biggest successes they achieved initially was in southern Ukraine. Within a few days Russian troops attacking from Crimea had seized an area of Ukrainian territory bigger than Switzerland.

Ukrainian authorities are yet to explain what went wrong in the south in those early days. To help uncover what happened, the BBC has spoken to military officers, politicians and activists.

On 22 February 2022 at 19:15, the secretary of Ukraine's security council Oleksiy Danilov received a red folder with secret documents. They warned that the president's life was under imminent threat. Immediately, Mr Danilov contacted the head of the security services, the interior minister, prime minister and President Volodymyr Zelensky himself.

But Ukraine's leadership stopped short of declaring martial law, for now. There was no mobilisation of troops. Just a few weeks before, Ukrainian authorities had described Western warnings of Russian invasion as "manipulation" and called on everyone to remain calm.

Mr Danilov says the government had detailed information about the planned invasion, including its dates. "We expected it on 22 February," he explains, rolling out a secret map of the Kyiv region. Taken from a Russian commander, he says it confirms intelligence reports that Russia's initial plan was to invade two days earlier than they actually did.

"Our goal was to avoid any panic inside the country. So, it was crucial to keep it all secret."

If the Ukrainian authorities knew so much about Moscow's plans, why were Russian troops able to sweep across the Kherson region in the south so quickly?

A strait and a narrow strip of land separate the Crimean peninsula from the Ukrainian mainland, and they were natural obstacles for Russian troops. So too was the extensive network of irrigation channels in the Kherson region.

Ukrainian forces just needed to destroy all bridges there to slow down the Russian advance. But that did not happen.

Mr Danilov says the authorities are currently investigating this, and until that process is over they cannot give an answer: "But we are not hiding this fact, we are not putting it away in a drawer."

The Chonhar bridge which crosses the strait between Crimea and Kherson had been mined, Ukraine's general staff confirmed after the invasion. But it rejected suggestions that the explosives had been defused, saying Russia's invasion force was 15 times the size of Ukraine's defence.

Critics have argued it was precisely because of that Russian dominance that the bridge should have been destroyed.

It is clear Ukrainian forces were not prepared for a scenario in which Russian troops easily crossed into the southern Kherson region.

As a result, they had to retreat from the region right from the start. As they withdrew, it took two hours for columns of military vehicles and troops to cross the Antonivskiy bridge near Kherson city, according to Senior Lt Yevhen Palchenko, who defended the bridge over the Dnipro river.

That indicates Ukraine had concentrated a large number of troops near Crimea. But with the bridges still standing, they were quickly outnumbered and outgunned.

"How can you contain their offensive when we had no air defence?" Lt Palchenko explains. "Their fighter jets flew in and dropped a whole bunch of bombs, blowing up everything. We lost a lot of men and equipment there."

Speed was crucial for Russian success. Their tactic was to bypass large cities, encircle them and move on. They planned to take Mykolaiv in two days and Odesa in three days, says Maj Gen Dmytro Marchenko, who was sent to organise Mykolaiv's defence. But the Russian plan ended in failure.

When Gen Marchenko arrived, there was still no plan to defend the city. "When I asked where it was, I was told that they still hadn't put together a map," he said.

He took a road map, divided it into four parts and appointed units and commanders responsible for each section. They announced mobilisation and quickly signed up thousands of people. Many of the newcomers had previously served in the army.

They set up anti-tank groups armed with grenade launchers and organised signal posts to warn when Russian tanks approached. In contrast to Kherson, bridges across irrigation channels in the region were destroyed by hastily set up special forces led by MP Roman Kostenko.

Ukrainian troops fought fiercely to slow down the Russian advancement near the Antonivskiy bridge. At midnight on 25 February, Russian forces went on the offensive. Lt Palchenko and his tank battalion were there to stop them.

"My tank took a few hits, and the system was down. So, we had to do everything manually, like in T-34 tanks during World War Two."

The Russian forces were overwhelming, so Lt Palchenko and his battalion had to retreat from the bridge. But he went back there several times that night. His tanks covered Ukrainian paratroopers and their task was to prevent Russian troops from crossing the bridge.

The then-23 year-old was later awarded the country's top military honour, Hero of Ukraine.

Their resistance gave Mykolaiv a few more days to prepare its defences. Co-ordination and communication between military and civilian teams meant that the time was used well.

"[Mykolaiv Governor] Vitaliy Kim was amazing at communicating with people to organise help," Maj Gen Marchenko remembers. "We needed excavators - they quickly went and dug [trenches and ditches]. We needed concrete blocks and anti-tank 'hedgehogs' - in half a day, it was all done."

Local citizens constantly monitored the movement of Russian troops and passed co-ordinates to Ukrainian gunners. Ordinary people destroyed armoured vehicles and took prisoners, says Maj Gen Marchenko.

"We stopped Russia's forces because the people rose up," he adds.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64718740

[Jimbuna]

How Putin's fate is tied to Russia's war in Ukraine

By Steve Rosenberg
Russia Editor, Moscow

I keep thinking back to something I heard on Russian state TV three years ago.

At the time Russians were being urged to support changes to the constitution that would enable Vladimir Putin to stay in power for another 16 years.

To persuade the public, the news anchor portrayed President Putin as a sea captain steering the good ship Russia through stormy waters of global unrest.

"Russia is an oasis of stability, a safe harbour," he continued. "If it wasn't for Putin what would have become of us?"

So much for an oasis of stability and safe harbour. On 24 February 2022, the Kremlin captain set sail in a storm of his own making. And headed straight for the iceberg.

Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine has brought death and destruction to Russia's neighbour. It has resulted in huge military casualties for his own country: some estimates put the number of dead Russian soldiers in the tens of thousands.

Hundreds of thousands of Russian citizens have been drafted into the army and Russian prisoners (including convicted killers) have been recruited to fight in Ukraine. Meanwhile, the war has impacted energy and food prices around the world and continues to threaten European and global security.

All problems of Titanic proportions.

So why did Russia's president set a course for war and territorial conquest?

"On the horizon were the Russian presidential elections of 2024," points out political scientist Ekaterina Schulmann.

"Two years before that vote [the Kremlin] wanted some victorious event. In 2022 they would achieve their objectives. In 2023 they would instil in the minds of Russians how fortunate they were to have such a captain steering the ship, not just through troubled waters, but bringing them to new and richer shores. Then in 2024 people would vote. Bingo. What could go wrong?"

Plenty, if your plans are based on misassumptions and miscalculations.

The Kremlin had expected its "special military operation" to be lightning fast. Within weeks, it thought, Ukraine would be back in Russia's orbit. President Putin had seriously underestimated Ukraine's capacity to resist and fight back, as well as the determination of Western nations to support Kyiv.

Russia's leader has yet to acknowledge, though, that he made a mistake by invading Ukraine. Mr Putin's way is to push on, to escalate, to raise the stakes.

Which brings me on to two key questions: how does Vladimir Putin view the situation one year on and what will be his next move in Ukraine?

This week he gave us some clues.

His state-of-the-nation address was packed with anti-Western bile. He continues to blame America and Nato for the war in Ukraine, and to portray Russia as an innocent party. His decision to suspend participation in the last remaining nuclear arms control treaty between Russia and America, New Start, shows that President Putin has no intention of pulling back from Ukraine or ending his standoff with the West.

The following day, at a Moscow football stadium, Mr Putin shared the stage with Russian soldiers back from the front line. At what was a highly choreographed pro-Kremlin rally, President Putin told the crowd that "there are battles going on right now on [Russia's] historical frontiers" and praised Russia's "courageous warriors".

Conclusion: don't expect any Kremlin U-turns. This Russian president is not for turning.

"If he faces no resistance, he will go as far as can," believes Andrei Illarionov, President Putin's former economic adviser. "There is no other way to stop him other than military resistance."

But what about talks over tanks? Is negotiating peace with Mr Putin possible?

"It's possible to sit down with anyone," Andrei Illarionov continues, "but we have an historic record of sitting down with Putin and making agreements with him.

"Putin violated all the documents. The agreement on the creation of the Commonwealth of Independent States, the bilateral treaty between Russia and Ukraine, the treaty on the internationally recognised border of Russia and Ukraine, the UN charter, the Helsinki Act of 1975, the Budapest Memorandum. And so on. There is no document he would not violate."

When it comes to breaking agreements, the Russian authorities have a long list of their own grudges to level at the West. Topping that list is Moscow's assertion that the West broke a promise it made in the 1990s not to enlarge the Nato alliance eastwards.

And yet in his early years in office, Vladimir Putin appeared not to view Nato as a threat. In 2000 he even did not exclude Russia one day becoming a member of the Alliance. Two years later, asked to comment on Ukraine's stated intention of joining Nato, President Putin replied: "Ukraine is a sovereign state and is entitled to choose itself how to ensure its own security…" He insisted the issue would not cloud relations between Moscow and Kyiv.

Putin circa 2023 is a very different character. Seething with resentment at the "collective West", he styles himself as leader of a besieged fortress, repelling the alleged attempts of Russia's enemies to destroy his country. From his speeches and comments - and his references to imperial Russian rulers like Peter the Great and Catherine the Great - Mr Putin appears to believe he is destined to recreate the Russian empire in some shape or form.

But at what cost to Russia? President Putin once earned himself a reputation for bringing stability to his country. That has disappeared amid rising military casualties, mobilisation and economic sanctions. Several hundred thousand Russians have left the country since the start of the war, many of them young, skilled and educated: a brain drain that will hurt Russia's economy even more.

As a result of the war, suddenly, there are a lot of groups around with guns, including private military companies, like Yevgeny Prigozhin's Wagner group and regional battalions. Relations with the regular armed forces are far from harmonious. The conflict between Russia's Ministry of Defence and Wagner is an example of public infighting within the elites.

Instability plus private armies is a dangerous cocktail.

"Civil war is likely to cover Russia for the next decade," believes Konstantin Remchukov, owner and editor of Moscow-based newspaper Nezavisimaya Gazeta. "There are too many interest groups who understand that in these conditions there's a chance to redistribute wealth."

"The real chance to avoid civil war will be if the right person comes to power immediately after Putin. A person who has authority over the elites and the resoluteness to isolate those eager to exploit the situation."

"Are the Russian elites discussing who the right man or woman is?" I ask Konstantin.

"Quietly. With the lights off. They do discuss this. They will have their voice."

"And does Putin know these discussions are happening?"

"He knows. I think he knows everything."

This week the speaker of the lower house of Russia's parliament declared: "As long as there's Putin, there's Russia."

It was a statement of loyalty, but not of fact. Russia will survive - it has managed to for centuries. Vladimir Putin's fate, however, is linked irrevocably now to the outcome of the war in Ukraine.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64744197

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6pr69w9_LbE

[Skybird]

I found this in FOCUS. It is a very relevant topic, that we understand that Putin started with a war of prostration, and when that failed, has shifted to a war of fatigue. And that is something Western nations are psychologically only ill-prepared for.
--------------------------------------

Many still do not understand Putin's true war strategy


by Herfried Münkler

Many Western governments still believe that Russia is pursuing a strategy of defeat in the Ukraine war. Yet Putin is clearly waging a war of fatigue. This detail is crucial to understanding how the war in Ukraine will play out in the medium and long term.

In 1890, the Berlin historian Hans Delbrück distinguished between a prostration strategy and a fatigue strategy in a widely acclaimed essay. The former is the strategy of rapid warfare, as preferably planned by the general staffs of land powers; the latter is the strategy of naval powers, who opt for it when a decisive battle seems too risky. They then aim not at the enemy's armored fist but at his blood and nerves; their aim is to render the fist powerless by the means of trade blockade and economic warfare.

Small-scale warfare (guerrilla) also follows the dictates of the attrition strategy: partisans avoid engagement with the regular military, lay ambushes and commit raids to wear down the opposition and force them to surrender. And finally, the fatigue strategy plays a role when a war does not reach a quick decision, even though both sides had set out to do so, and at least one side relies on exhausting the enemy, as was the case in the First World War.

In a war of fatigue, the advantage goes to the side with the greater reserves

In the war in Ukraine, we can currently observe that the Russian side is counting on exhaustion, while the Ukrainians are counting on the fact that they will succeed in driving the Russian troops out of Ukrainian territory, i.e. perhaps not knocking them down, but throwing them out.

Fatigue strategies can be directed mainly against the military or mainly against the civilian population, and they rely on the combination of physical and psychological exhaustion. This is as true of the artillery duels in the Donbass as it is of Russian missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure. In a war of fatigue, the one who has the greater reserves and whose territory is less affected by acts of war than that of his adversary has the advantage.

In the case of the Ukraine war, the advantages clearly lie with the Russians. If the West does not want Ukraine to lose this war, as politicians have repeatedly stated, it must compensate for Russia's superiority with extensive deliveries of weapons and ammunition and a comprehensive willingness to stabilize the Ukrainian state budget. If he does not succeed in this, Russia will achieve its military goals in the long run. Then there will be no more Ukraine.

Many Western governments are overwhelmed with fatigue strategies

Waging a fatigue war is not only a question of will, but also of ability: Will the West's reserves of weapons and ammunition be sufficient to keep the Ukrainian army adequately supplied? In the long run, will the Ukrainian army have enough well-trained soldiers to offer effective resistance? And will the populations of Western countries be willing to shoulder the huge costs of supporting Ukraine for a long time to come?

The answer to these questions remains open, but it must be noted that many Western governments are not prepared for the challenge posed by the fatigue strategy, but have behaved as if they were dealing with a defeat strategy on the part of the Russians: in fact, the production of weapons and ammunition would have had to be ramped up in late spring 2022 to be able to deliver what was promised. And even now, it is apparent that many countries that were at the forefront of loudly declaring their willingness to supply Ukraine with modern battle tanks, but when it came to the immediate provision of these weapons systems, were hardly heard from.

Obviously, they were counting on the fact that the Germans would not deliver Leopard tanks and therefore made big talk behind their broad backs. Just as muzzlers (=Maulhelden) are not real heroes, muzzle suppliers are not real supporters.

A fast and comprehensive supply of the Ukrainian army is the solution

So now it is up to the German government to organize the tank coalition of the Europeans and thus do what it wanted to avoid at all costs - probably also anticipating how things would develop. The formula of "no German unilateral action" must now be refocused. It can no longer consist of observing in Berlin what others are doing in order to then join those who are in the majority, but must itself organize majorities and ensure that these majorities are also capable of action.

This is a challenge to which German politicians are not necessarily accustomed, for which they are not "trained." It remains to be seen whether they will be up to this challenge. This also applies to the way in which these arms deliveries are communicated to their own population: If Ukraine loses the war of fatigue, this will result in a flight of several million people to Germany. One must be clear about this. The formula familiar from the migration debate, namely that problems must be tackled where they arise, also applies here, and it means a rapid and comprehensive strengthening of the Ukrainian army.

Possible window of opportunity for negotiations?

But isn't there a negotiating window that can be used to end the war? Fatigue warfare always implies that at least one of the two sides will rely on a combination of warfare and negotiation. For them, in a reversal of Clausewitz's formula, diplomacy is a continuation of war by other means.

This does not argue against negotiations; one only has to know that here diplomacy also follows the principles of fatigue and that what happens on the front always plays a role. In other words, one can be defeated in negotiations because one suffers defeats in theaters of war and one's own negotiating position becomes weaker and weaker as a result - or collapses, which immediately turns compromise negotiations into surrender negotiations.

For German policy, this means that it must contribute to strengthening the Ukrainian military in such a way that the Russian side sees no chance of achieving its military goals even in a war of fatigue, or must suffer unbearable losses and accept disadvantages in the attempt to achieve them after all. The more insistent this prospect is for the Russian side, the sooner the fatigue war will end.
--------------

About the author

Herfried Münkler, born in 1951, is professor emeritus of political science at Berlin's Humboldt University. Many of his books are considered standard works, such as "The Great War" (2013), "The New Germans" (2016), and "The Thirty Years' War" (2017). Herfried Münkler has received many awards, including the Aby Warburg Foundation Science Prize and the Carl Friedrich von Siemens Fellowship
------------------------------------


Its like I said since weeks: Russia must not necessarily "win" tactical engagements and battles on the ground, just must keep the pressure on and keep the Ukrainians bleeding. Therefore, as some German commentator wrote some time ago, Russia will try to create "many little Verduns": and even if Russia suffers big losses and makes no tactical gains, the losses caused to the ukrianains, even if relatively smaller than the Russian, nevertheless damage the Ukrainians more severely. Russia can afford high losses easier than the Ukraine. This might chnage in a year or so, but for the time being this is the simple grim truth: Russia can afford high losses, Ukraine much less so.

Time is working for Russia, not for Ukraine.

Weapon deliveries must be unleashed, all inhibitions and limitations and concerns must be put down. A decisive military decision must be enforced - the ukraine cannot win by playing the long game. Even if in one or two years the Russians were completely kicked out (and thats a big "if"): what use is in that if then the Ukraine and all its industry, critical infrastructure and agriculture would be in complete ruins? Playing the long game only works for Ukraine if it were fighting the war on the soil of the enemy - not on its own. Over 70% of the critical infrastructure in Ukraine is destroyed already, and that is the assessment of Colonel Reisner from already several weeks ago. The fairy queen will hardly have come over night and improved things since then. China seems to mull delivery or artillery and ammunition, it cannot allow Russia getting too weak if it should be of use as an ally in China's confrontation of the USD. .

[Jimbuna]

Putin unleashes direct nuclear warning to NATO saying Russians will 'suffer'

Putin warned that he was considering the United Kingdom's nuclear capabilities as part of his response to the West's alleged aggression. In his interview, Putin condemned the West's actions towards Russia, stating that the country had been subjected to a series of hostile actions, including sanctions and military buildups, that were intended to weaken and undermine it. Putin's remarks have sparked concern among Western leaders, who have warned against any aggressive actions by Russia towards the UK or other countries. The UK's Defense Secretary Ben Wallace has stated that the country is fully prepared to defend itself against any potential threat.

Putin told TV channel Rossiya 1: "In today's conditions, when all the leading NATO countries have declared their main goal to inflict a strategic defeat on us, to make our people suffer... how can we not take into account their nuclear capabilities?

"Moreover, they supply weapons to Ukraine worth tens of billions of dollars."
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/ukraine-live-putin-unleashes-direct-nuclear-warning-to-nato-saying-russians-will-suffer/ar-AA17Yv4X?ocid=mailsignout&pc=U591&cvid=c07af5f7d78f4faebc35ff291576a297

[Jimbuna]

US is amazed at how quickly Ukrainians are restoring power grids after attacks of Russian Federation, - Minister of Energy, Granholm


Washington is amazed at how quickly Ukrainian specialists manage to restore damaged power grids after Russian attacks.

As reported by Censor.NET with reference to Ukrinform, US Energy Minister Jennifer Granholm stated this.

"I know that President Zelensky has really expressed a desire to have a different power grid. A distributed grid that runs on clean energy, but is also not so centralized as to be a target. And this is very inspiring... We are now in the process of sending the third tranche of equipment to Ukraine so that they can replace what was damaged. But at the end of the day, in the long term, we have to fulfill the president's goals of creating a distributed electric grid so that if one area goes down, it doesn't bring down an entire region," Granholm said.

The U.S. is expected to send a third tranche of aid to restore power grids that continue to be targeted by Russian attacks in early March.

"There will be a third tranche, which we will send at the beginning of March. And these funds, of course, help. But what impressed us is how quickly Ukrainians use what we send to resume work as soon as possible. It is truly breathtaking: such resilience and quick execution of tasks by those working on the network. And we will continue to help in whatever way we can," the minister said.

She emphasized that she is personally in contact with the Minister of Energy of Ukraine Herman Halushchenko and feels the desire of the Ukrainian side for constant cooperation and implementation of relevant plans.

"The National Renewable Energy Laboratory is creating roadmaps for countries that have expressed interest in transitioning to 100 percent renewable, 100 percent clean, carbon-free energy. And we want to work with Ukraine, which has expressed a desire to do this, to provide technical roadmaps on how to achieve this," said Granholm. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3402474

Russian invasion of Ukraine caused most massive violations of human rights, - UN Secretary General, Guterres

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine caused the most massive violations of human rights. This is an "alarm bell".

This was stated by UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, Censor.NET informs with reference to The Guardian.

Speaking at the annual session of the UN Human Rights Council, Guterres called for the renewal of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights 75 years after it was signed.

The UN Secretary-General noted that the declaration is under attack from all sides," pointing to Russia's war against Ukraine and threats to human rights through poverty, hunger, and climate disasters.

"Some governments are abandoning the declaration," Guterres said, calling the disregard for and disregard for human rights around the world "a wake-up call."

He said that "the Russian invasion of Ukraine provoked the most massive violations of human rights" observed in the world today.

"It has caused massive deaths, destruction, and displacement," Guterres said. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3402485

There are currently no prerequisites for negotiations regarding Ukraine, - Peskov

The spokesman of the Russian dictator Dmytro Peskov stated that there are currently no prerequisites for negotiations regarding Ukraine.

This is reported by Censor.NET with reference to the propaganda publication RIA Novosti.

Commenting on China's "peace plan", he noted that its details are "the subject of careful analysis, it is a long and tense process."

At the same time, Peskov noted, there are currently no prerequisites for negotiations regarding Ukraine, and "the special operation is moving towards the set goal." Source: https://censor.net/en/n3402466

[Rockstar]

https://t.me/strelkovii/4070

Стрелков Игорь Иванович

Дни, как песчинки в песочных часах, утекают и утекают... Все меньше времени остается на то, чтобы принять необходимые решения до того, как они потеряют свою актуальность...

Танки, орудия, боеприпасы и всё остальное вооружение и снаряжение широким потоком течет на т.н. "украину", а удары по коммуникациям как не наносились, так и не наносятся. Остановлены удары по энергосистеме. "Центры принятия решения" в Киеве принимают решения в максимально комфортном и безопасном режиме - на них даже не пробовали до сих пор покушаться. Между тем, запас ракет и высокоточных боеприпасов всех видов за минувший год в РФ явно не увеличился (не стану утверждать, что его теперь просто нет, иначе обвинят либо в "разглашении военной тайны" (которая мне не известна), либо в "пораженческих настроениях" (которых у меня нет и быть не может тем более)). Проблемы с боеприпасами и просто воспроизводством самого обычного вооружения - в РФ нарастают тоже с каждым днем.

И - на фоне всего этого - несменяемые "маршалы" продолжают "биться лбом" (не своим, к сожалению) о заранее подготовленную оборону врага на Донбассе. С успехами крайне незначительными (а чаще - без всяких успехов), но с большими потерями.
Военного положения - нет и не предвидится (исходя из заявлений лица, внешне напоминающего президента), границы - открыты, нефть и газ - широким потоком идет партнерам (в том числе - киевским). Центробанк РФ наращивает вложения в гособлигации США.

И единственным "развлечением" для ошарашенных действительностью рассерженных патриотов является публичная взаимная травля, проплаченная господами Шойгу и Пригожиным, безобразная сама по себе и свидетельствующая как о том, "насколько всё прогнило" в нашей стране, но также и о том, что в руководстве военными действиями у нас отсутствует главное - единоначалие. (А кто из двух указанных лиц "правее" - определяйтесь сами, если есть желание. Как по мне - так "в сортах говна лучше не разбираться").
t.me/strelkovii
/4070
285.7K views
Feb 27 at 06:38

Strelkov Igor Ivanovich a.k.a. Igor Vsevolodovich Girkin

Days, like grains of sand in an hourglass, flow away and flow away ... There is less and less time left to make the necessary decisions before they lose their relevance ...

Tanks, guns, ammunition and all other weapons and equipment flow in a wide stream to the so-called. "Ukraine", and blows to communications have not been delivered, and are not being delivered. Strikes on the power system have been stopped. "Decision-making centers" in Kyiv make decisions in the most comfortable and safe mode - they have not even tried to encroach on them so far. Meanwhile, the supply of missiles and precision-guided munitions of all kinds over the past year in the Russian Federation has clearly not increased (I will not argue that it simply does not exist now, otherwise they will be accused either of "disclosing military secrets" (which I do not know) or of "defeatist moods" "(Which I don't have and can't have all the more)). Problems with ammunition and simply the reproduction of the most conventional weapons - in the Russian Federation are also growing every day.

And - against the backdrop of all this - the irremovable "marshals" continue to "beat their foreheads" (not their own, unfortunately) against the enemy's prepared defenses in the Donbass. With extremely insignificant successes (and more often without any success), but with heavy losses.
There is no martial law and it is not expected (based on the statements of a person who outwardly resembles the president), the borders are open, oil and gas are going to partners (including Kiev ones) in a wide stream. The Central Bank of the Russian Federation is increasing investments in US government bonds.

And the only "entertainment" for the angry patriots dumbfounded by reality is the public mutual persecution paid for by gentleman Shoigu and Prigogine, ugly in itself and testifying both to "how rotten everything is" in our country, but also to the fact that in the leadership of the military actions we lack the main thing - unity of command. (And which of the two indicated persons is “more to the right” - decide for yourself, if you wish. As for me, it’s better not to understand the varieties of crap).
t.me/strelkovii
/4070
285.7K views
Feb 27 at 06:38

[Skybird]

Far from over - how Western security circles assess Russia's military options in Ukraine

The war is entering its second year. Weapons supplies from the U.S. and Europe have ensured Ukraine's survival so far. The question is how long the West can and will continue to help. Putin seems to be able to continue the war for a long time.

On the anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, we assess Ukraine's and Russia's military capabilities and resources for the future course of the war. In this article, we analyze the situation in Russia and its goals; we will go into those of the Ukrainians on Monday.

https://www.nzz.ch/pro-global/noch-lange-nicht-am-ende-wie-westliche-sicherheitskreise-russlands-militaerische-optionen-in-der-ukraine-einschaetzen-ld.1726962?_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_sl=auto

-------------------

The Ukrainian army must first hit the occupiers from a distance - and then can strike out

Time is running against Ukraine, but the key factors on the battlefield allow for an optimistic forecast.

On the anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, we assess Ukraine's and Russia's military capabilities and resources for the remainder of the war. In this article, we analyze the situation of Ukraine and its objectives; we dealt with those of Russia last week.

https://www.nzz.ch/pro-global/die-ukrainische-armee-muss-die-besatzer-zuerst-aus-der-distanz-treffen-und-kann-dann-losschlagen-ld.1727535?_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_sl=auto

[Skybird]

This analysis in FOCUS supports my scepticism. Things are not going too badly for Putin, thanks to active help from Berlin and Paris.

I say since long time both capitols do not want Ukriane in NATO and EU sinc ethat would come at the cost of their own power and influence. To give up that they are not ready. They prefer to sacrifice the Ukraine.

I was tempted to write somethign like "The fate of the Ukraine is sealed", but that maybe still would be a bit too premature. But things do not look good when even at least some of its acclaimed friends are workign against it. With friend slike these, I see no reason for optism.

Mind you, when Scholz went to the summit, he did so in the expectation that Biden would not deliver M1s. Bidne on his side had sent envoys to Kyiv and Moscow, tersting acceptance for kind of a peace plan or a plan for negotiations at least. Both sides said NO. And only then was when Biden changed his mind with Scholz already in midair, so to speak, to reverse his decision and send M1s. Scholz got caught on two wrong feet, completely surprised, for he planned to hide further behind America'S refusal, and from then on was pushed into the defensive. That the Germans still insist on that it all is done in mutual decision making and mutual understanding, is a lie the Germans must keep if they want to not get revealed as the big hesitators and delayers that they have been all the time: they are needed to be carried to every single decision they made, and they delayed that decision always for as long as they could.

Do not trust the Germans. Nor the French.

On a sidenote, Zelensky was asked a couple of days ago what he really thought about the German policy and support. He evaded and said that he could not honestly answer that question now - but one should ask him again after the war.

Right now I cannot bite the hand that feeds me, even if it is just that little bit, that meant.

----------------------

Two Ukraine revelations make clear what the West really wants


Two revelations put the Ukraine war in a new light: Selenskyj should finally be open to negotiations with Putin, demand Scholz and Macron. And: Germany would not have supplied Ukraine with tanks on its own. Support is dwindling.

There are now two revelations, and they reveal this: In confidential talks, the German chancellor urges the Ukrainian president to negotiate with Vladimir Putin. And he would not have delivered German battle tanks of his own accord either; that would have required the help of the Americans. In any case, unreserved help for Ukraine looks different.

One revelation comes from US President Joe Biden's security adviser. Jake Sullivan said on U.S. television that the Germans were only willing to supply Leopard tanks to Ukraine if the Americans supplied Abrams tanks. Biden eventually agreed to that - against the advice of his military officials, he said.

The German government finds this version - well: suboptimal. It supports the thesis that, contrary to what has been claimed, Olaf Scholz is not resolutely leading, but is above all resolutely hiding behind the Americans' backs. And that's not all: The German government had clearly denied that such a junction had ever existed. For it feeds the suspicion that the Chancellor does not trust the Americans to keep their NATO standby promise in the event of a Russian "escalation" into German territory. Therefore, a government spokesman now went into action.

Wolfgang Büchner, however, did not flatly deny the Sullivan versions, but wrapped them in absorbent cotton. This is common when a government wants to protect itself without hurting an ally. It sounds like this: "These were good, constructive talks in which care was always taken by both sides to come to a common approach." The decision was amicable between Washington and Berlin, he said.

Yes - what else? The fact that in the end such a decision is amicable does not say anything about what happened in the beginning. And in the beginning, Scholz stubbornly refused to send Leopards to Ukraine, just as he had refused to send Marder infantry fighting vehicles before. It always needed the push from the outside.

The New York Times already reported on this at the end of January: Biden had thus wanted to give Scholz political flank protection. There are several other solid sources for this. At the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, the chancellor met with American senators. And they confirmed afterwards the junket that today Scholz wants nothing more to do with.

After his conversation with Scholz, Chris Coons, the Democratic senator from Biden's hometown of Delaware, said this: "If it's necessary to deliver some Abrams tanks to clear the way for Leopard tanks from Germany, Poland and other allies, I'm for it." If - then: a classic junket.

Now Sullivan, who spoke of the junket, is in permanent contact with his Ukrainian colleague Yermak, Selenskyj chief of office. So Selenskyj, it can be assumed, was aware of the deal - German Leos are only available if U.S. Abrams are also coming. Selenskyj met with Republican Senator Lindsey Graham shortly after the WEF, and he tweeted afterward, "To the Biden administration: send American tanks so others follow your lead."

And Graham's Democratic colleague Richard Blumenthal said this: "We should deliver the Abrams, then the Germans will also give up Leopard tanks to stop the Russian attack." Biden then demonstratively cleared the way for the Abrams, sending a powerful signal for Selenskyj and against Putin as the leader of the Western allies.

However: the Leopards will be delivered from now on, the Abrams will not arrive until the end of the year at the earliest, probably not until next year. The U.S. government justifies the delay by saying that no Abrams from its own army inventory should be sent.

This is because they have special armor whose formula is top secret - and should remain so. The Abrams to be sent to Ukraine will have different armor. It is questionable whether the Abrams will then be needed at all. This is where the second revelation comes into play, it comes from the Wall Street Journal. According to the report, at a joint meeting in Paris, Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron urged Selenskyj to negotiate with Russia.


According to the U.S. paper, Macron's top officials believe Ukraine has no chance of liberating Crimea from the Russians, and that a complete liberation of the Donbass is also all but impossible. Ukraine would now be supplied with Western weapons once again, but by the fall it would have to have shown that it was capable of substantial conquest. Otherwise, there should be negotiations, which Putin has so far ruled out just as much as Selenskyj.

In any case, by the fall, there will be Leopard tanks in Ukraine, but no Abrams tanks. Which also puts in a pale light the promise of Biden, who had said that the U.S. would always help Ukraine and supply "whatever it takes, as long as it takes."

In this context, a British initiative is important. British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is proposing to provide Ukraine with Western weapons in the medium term so that even if the country remains militarily neutral, it can credibly deter Russia after a peace deal is reached. Scholz and Macron support the British plan, which is to be decided on by NATO in July.

In any case, one thing is clear: The claim that there are no negotiations at all or the demand that diplomacy should finally be given a chance is wrong. Negotiations are taking place, and intensively. Scholz and Macron talk sometimes with Putin, sometimes with Selensky. Biden is negotiating with Selensky, and there are also intensive U.S.-Ukrainian consultations one floor below, at the ministerial level.

The bottom line is that what the West wants is gradually becoming clearer. Ukraine is being signaled, contrary to public slogans of loyalty and perseverance, that military assistance is limited in time. Selenskyj is expected to evolve from a war president to a peace president, or as Macron is said to have told him - a "statesman." To liberate everything the Russians have occupied, more and more allies in the West consider illusory. Ukraine is supposed to get modern Western weapons later, but not be able to become a NATO member.

So things are not going badly for Putin.
------------------------

[Dargo]

The old Russian tradition of using provincial (and non-Russian) populations as cannon-fodder is alive and well

https://i.postimg.cc/BbHz0yYw/Fp-Ecyf-Xs-AMTLso.jpg
https://twitter.com/Roger_Moorhouse/status/1630237930257256448

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y7F8K3yOX8w

[Dargo]

Poland Reveals When It Will Send Rest of Leopard Tanks to Ukraine
Poland will send the next batch of Leopard 2A4 tanks to Ukraine within a few weeks.

As PAP agency reports, Michal Dworczyk, Chief of the Prime Minister Chancellery, shared when the next ten promised Leopard 2A4 tanks would be delivered.

"Soon. First, the training of Ukrainian troops should be completed since some of these tanks are currently being used there. It will last several weeks," he said.

When asked about the PT-91 tanks announced by the Prime Minister to arrive in Ukraine, he said that their transfer with the T-72 is also a matter of weeks, "if not sooner." "They are practically in the process of sending. They will soon be in Ukraine," he added. https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/eng/news/2023/02/27/7156999/

[Jimbuna]

US Congress will pressure Biden on F-16s. They may appear at сrucial moment, - Chairman of Committee on Foreign Affairs McCaul

Chairman of the US House of Representatives Foreign Affairs Committee Michael McCaul said that Congress will put pressure on President Joe Biden’s administration to transfer F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine.

He stated this in an interview with ABC News, reports Censor.NЕТ with reference to LeagueBusinessInform.

He said he hopes that the Republican and Democratic parties will put pressure on the White House to agree to give Ukraine long-range missiles and F-16s, especially in expectation of a Russian offensive.

He noted that the long-range munitions and aircraft could come to Ukraine at a "decisive and crucial" moment in the conflict.

"When we give them something they can actually use and ask for, they win. When we go slow and slow this thing down, it drags on, and that's exactly what Putin wants," McCaul said.

When asked what can be done at the legislative level to force Biden to send Ukraine long-range systems and F-16s, the congressman said that the appropriations bills (maximum amounts of budget funds to be allocated - Ed.) will specify the priorities of weapons systems. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3402553

Zaluzhny discussed with Milley provision of F-16 aircraft to Ukraine to strengthen air defense

Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valeriy Zaluzhnyi had a telephone conversation with Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley.

This is stated by Censor.NЕТ with reference to the page of Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Facebook.

"Traditionally, we paid attention to the supply of military equipment, weapons and ammunition as part of international technical assistance to Ukraine, the situation on the front line and the future plans of the Ukrainian Defense Forces to de-occupy its territory.

He emphasized the need to strengthen the capabilities of Ukraine's air defense system, including through the provision of F-16 multi-role combat aircraft," Zaluzhnyi said.

The Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine expressed confidence that with the help of partners, Ukraine will certainly win. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3402594

Bulgaria resumes production of Soviet-type shells for Ukraine - The New York Times

After a 35-year hiatus, the Terem arms factory in Kostenets, Bulgaria, began producing Soviet-style 122mm artillery shells for the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

This is stated by The New York Times, reports Censor.NЕТ with reference to LeagueBusinessInform.

The plant stopped producing 122mm shells in 1988 when the Cold War ended. In January 2023, the company resumed production of shells.

The ribbon-cutting ceremony for the new production line in Kostenets was attended by representatives of the US Embassy.

With the new jobs, the plant may become one of Kostenets's largest employers.

"This is a big deal for the city," said Vice Mayor Margarita Mincheva.

In addition, the VMZ arms factory in Sopot has switched to a six-day work week to produce shells for Ukraine.

Officially, Bulgaria has said since the beginning of Russia's full-scale war against Ukraine that it does not support the supply of weapons to the Ukrainian armed forces, but Welt's research shows that Sofia actively helped Kyiv with ammunition and diesel fuel for military equipment in the crucial months of the war. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3402563

First battalion of Ukrainian Armed Forces completed training on operation of M2 Bradley IFV

The first battalion of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has completed training on the operation of M2 Bradley infantry fighting vehicles.

This was stated in Telegram by First Deputy Minister of Defense Oleksandr Pavliuk, reports Censor.NЕТ.

"The First Battalion of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has completed training on the operation of M2 Bradley infantry fighting vehicles. Ukrainian servicemen were trained to use the American armored personnel carriers at a US base in Germany.

Bradley are quite powerful vehicles that were designed to counter Soviet equipment in battles," he emphasized. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3402564

[Dargo]

This analysis in FOCUS supports my scepticism. Things are not going too badly for Putin, thanks to active help from Berlin and Paris.

I say since long time both capitols do not want Ukriane in NATO and EU sinc ethat would come at the cost of their own power and influence. To give up that they are not ready. They prefer to sacrifice the Ukraine.

I was tempted to write somethign like "The fate of the Ukraine is sealed", but that maybe still would be a bit too premature. But things do not look good when even at least some of its acclaimed friends are workign against it. With friend slike these, I see no reason for optism.

Mind you, when Scholz went to the summit, he did so in the expectation that Biden would not deliver M1s. Bidne on his side had sent envoys to Kyiv and Moscow, tersting acceptance for kind of a peace plan or a plan for negotiations at least. Both sides said NO. And only then was when Biden changed his mind with Scholz already in midair, so to speak, to reverse his decision and send M1s. Scholz got caught on two wrong feet, completely surprised, for he planned to hide further behind America'S refusal, and from then on was pushed into the defensive. That the Germans still insist on that it all is done in mutual decision making and mutual understanding, is a lie the Germans must keep if they want to not get revealed as the big hesitators and delayers that they have been all the time: they are needed to be carried to every single decision they made, and they delayed that decision always for as long as they could.

Do not trust the Germans. Nor the French.

On a sidenote, Zelensky was asked a couple of days ago what he really thought about the German policy and support. He evaded and said that he could not honestly answer that question now - but one should ask him again after the war.

Right now I cannot bite the hand that feeds me, even if it is just that little bit, that meant.

----------------------

Two Ukraine revelations make clear what the West really wants


Two revelations put the Ukraine war in a new light: Selenskyj should finally be open to negotiations with Putin, demand Scholz and Macron. And: Germany would not have supplied Ukraine with tanks on its own. Support is dwindling.

There are now two revelations, and they reveal this: In confidential talks, the German chancellor urges the Ukrainian president to negotiate with Vladimir Putin. And he would not have delivered German battle tanks of his own accord either; that would have required the help of the Americans. In any case, unreserved help for Ukraine looks different.

One revelation comes from US President Joe Biden's security adviser. Jake Sullivan said on U.S. television that the Germans were only willing to supply Leopard tanks to Ukraine if the Americans supplied Abrams tanks. Biden eventually agreed to that - against the advice of his military officials, he said.

The German government finds this version - well: suboptimal. It supports the thesis that, contrary to what has been claimed, Olaf Scholz is not resolutely leading, but is above all resolutely hiding behind the Americans' backs. And that's not all: The German government had clearly denied that such a junction had ever existed. For it feeds the suspicion that the Chancellor does not trust the Americans to keep their NATO standby promise in the event of a Russian "escalation" into German territory. Therefore, a government spokesman now went into action.

Wolfgang Büchner, however, did not flatly deny the Sullivan versions, but wrapped them in absorbent cotton. This is common when a government wants to protect itself without hurting an ally. It sounds like this: "These were good, constructive talks in which care was always taken by both sides to come to a common approach." The decision was amicable between Washington and Berlin, he said.

Yes - what else? The fact that in the end such a decision is amicable does not say anything about what happened in the beginning. And in the beginning, Scholz stubbornly refused to send Leopards to Ukraine, just as he had refused to send Marder infantry fighting vehicles before. It always needed the push from the outside.

The New York Times already reported on this at the end of January: Biden had thus wanted to give Scholz political flank protection. There are several other solid sources for this. At the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, the chancellor met with American senators. And they confirmed afterwards the junket that today Scholz wants nothing more to do with.

After his conversation with Scholz, Chris Coons, the Democratic senator from Biden's hometown of Delaware, said this: "If it's necessary to deliver some Abrams tanks to clear the way for Leopard tanks from Germany, Poland and other allies, I'm for it." If - then: a classic junket.

Now Sullivan, who spoke of the junket, is in permanent contact with his Ukrainian colleague Yermak, Selenskyj chief of office. So Selenskyj, it can be assumed, was aware of the deal - German Leos are only available if U.S. Abrams are also coming. Selenskyj met with Republican Senator Lindsey Graham shortly after the WEF, and he tweeted afterward, "To the Biden administration: send American tanks so others follow your lead."

And Graham's Democratic colleague Richard Blumenthal said this: "We should deliver the Abrams, then the Germans will also give up Leopard tanks to stop the Russian attack." Biden then demonstratively cleared the way for the Abrams, sending a powerful signal for Selenskyj and against Putin as the leader of the Western allies.

However: the Leopards will be delivered from now on, the Abrams will not arrive until the end of the year at the earliest, probably not until next year. The U.S. government justifies the delay by saying that no Abrams from its own army inventory should be sent.

This is because they have special armor whose formula is top secret - and should remain so. The Abrams to be sent to Ukraine will have different armor. It is questionable whether the Abrams will then be needed at all. This is where the second revelation comes into play, it comes from the Wall Street Journal. According to the report, at a joint meeting in Paris, Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron urged Selenskyj to negotiate with Russia.


According to the U.S. paper, Macron's top officials believe Ukraine has no chance of liberating Crimea from the Russians, and that a complete liberation of the Donbass is also all but impossible. Ukraine would now be supplied with Western weapons once again, but by the fall it would have to have shown that it was capable of substantial conquest. Otherwise, there should be negotiations, which Putin has so far ruled out just as much as Selenskyj.

In any case, by the fall, there will be Leopard tanks in Ukraine, but no Abrams tanks. Which also puts in a pale light the promise of Biden, who had said that the U.S. would always help Ukraine and supply "whatever it takes, as long as it takes."

In this context, a British initiative is important. British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is proposing to provide Ukraine with Western weapons in the medium term so that even if the country remains militarily neutral, it can credibly deter Russia after a peace deal is reached. Scholz and Macron support the British plan, which is to be decided on by NATO in July.

In any case, one thing is clear: The claim that there are no negotiations at all or the demand that diplomacy should finally be given a chance is wrong. Negotiations are taking place, and intensively. Scholz and Macron talk sometimes with Putin, sometimes with Selensky. Biden is negotiating with Selensky, and there are also intensive U.S.-Ukrainian consultations one floor below, at the ministerial level.

The bottom line is that what the West wants is gradually becoming clearer. Ukraine is being signaled, contrary to public slogans of loyalty and perseverance, that military assistance is limited in time. Selenskyj is expected to evolve from a war president to a peace president, or as Macron is said to have told him - a "statesman." To liberate everything the Russians have occupied, more and more allies in the West consider illusory. Ukraine is supposed to get modern Western weapons later, but not be able to become a NATO member.

So things are not going badly for Putin.
------------------------Like Merkel before him, Scholz is a politician who prefers to be led by polls instead of leading. When the polls showed Germans were skeptical of sending heavy weapons to Ukraine, for example, he held back instead of making the case as to why such support was in Germany’s own best interest. He only relented once the pressure from outside Germany, especially from the U.S., became so great that he had no choice.

Washington is slowly waking up to the fact that Germany’s Zeitenwende is a mirage. German defense spending this year is expected to be about €50 billion, falling well short once again of NATO’s target of 2 percent of GDP. As ever, Scholz and other German politicians are promising to reach the target soon.

The contrast with neighboring Poland, where spending is forecast to jump to 3 percent of GDP this year from 2.2 percent, couldn’t be greater.

That’s one reason why the U.S. is embracing Poland like never before. Biden’s center-left administration and Poland’s national conservative government are hardly natural allies. But they are united by a common enemy, and President Biden has visited the country twice in less than a year. https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-zeitenwende-defense-spending-nato-gdp-target-scholz-ukraine-war-russia/

[Jimbuna]

Russia responds to China’s 12-point peace plan for ending war

Russia has claimed it is paying “a great deal of attention” to China’s 12-point peace plan to end the Ukraine war.

The Kremlin responded to the plans on Monday, which were put forward last week by China ahead of the anniversary of the invasion.

Vladimir Putin’s spokesman said: “We are paying a great deal of attention to the plan of our Chinese friends.

“Of course, the details need to be painstakingly analysed taking into account the interests of all the different sides. This is a very long and intense process.

It comes after Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky claimed that Russian counterpart will one day be killed by his own inner circle.

Speaking in the new Ukrainian documentary “Year”, Mr Zelensky said: “There will definitely be a moment when the fragility of Putin’s regime will be felt inside the [Russian] state.”

“And then the predators will devour a predator. They will find a reason to kill a killer,” he said.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/ukraine-war-news-live-russia-responds-to-china-s-12-point-peace-plan-for-ending-war/ar-AA17YyYG?ocid=mailsignout&pc=U591&cvid=92d44cc397cf4e8182f06766a605de07

[Catfish]

NEXTA @nexta_tv
"Belarusian independent media report that in the morning the sounds of explosions were heard in the area of the airfield. A helicopter patrolled the area around the possible emergency and riot policemen worked on the ground."

NEXTA @nexta_tv Feb 26
"Russian "war correspondents" confirm the information about the attack. There is a version of drone attacks on military infrastructure, where Russian air force equipment may be deployed.

Representatives of Lukashenka's regime did not comment on the situation."

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1629927852253626368?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5 Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1629927852253626368%7Ctwgr% 5Ef418cf82e948bbc221e7846e2fd6d96256ea7bd0%7Ctwcon %5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fs9e.github.io%2Fiframe%2Ftwi tter.min.html1629927852253626368

"Weaponised drones have become an essential weapon. A Russian Beriev A-50 (code name: Mainstay) Airborne Early Warning and Control (AEW&C) cost of about $330 Million was heavily damaged by two weaponised drones in an airbase in Belarus. “Russian military aircraft blown up near Minsk…” 27 Feb 2023 Reuters"

[Dargo]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_LJV5nOSjCE

[Skybird]

German defense spending this year is expected to be about €50 billion, falling well short once again of NATO’s target of 2 percent of GDP.
It does not just "fall short". It shrinks. It is expected to stabilise on that lower niveau in 2024 and 2025 (by consuming major parts of that additional special fund for that cause) - and in the years from 2026 to shrink further, when the special budget has been eaten up. Needless to say, one year ago Scholz said there should be a net fulöfillment of the 2% goal PLUS the special fund of 100bn (which already is just 87bn, and due to inflation shrinks further and further).

One can only shake the head about this. But as I said already one year ago: no surprise, I am not surprised one bit. Nothing else than this windblowing was to be expected.

To be fair on a principle level: its true that Germany in generla is bancrupt, like every other Western state anyway. We cannot finance the many voter briberies and state bureaucracy and pensions and interest payments without making new additional debts every year. Plus desperately needed investments in infrastructure repair, education, health systems... Germany spends more than it can afford, and lives like that since decades. All states do that, it seems.

[Catfish]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kmfrKLiml2Y

[mapuc]

^^^ I just wrote on a friends wall that I could very well foresee a civil war in Russia and then I see your video.

Markus

[Dargo]

^^^ I just wrote on a friends wall that I could very well foresee a civil war in Russia and then I see your video.

MarkusRevolutions are hard to predict even Lenin had it wrong and missed the opportunities many times

[mapuc]

Revolutions are hard to predict even Lenin had it wrong and missed the opportunities many times

Had not the word revolution in my mind. I was thinking a regular civil war.

Markus

[Rockstar]

Remember Nemetsov?

It’s because of Putin there is war. War, which was made possible by murdering those who stood in his way. It didn’t have to be this way.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q1ETBWoelOU

[Dargo]

Had not the word revolution in my mind. I was thinking a regular civil war.

MarkusRevolution or civil war are not so different, both want a truth to be the ruling one, both are mostly violent clashes for power.

[Jimbuna]

'Extremely tense' as Russians bid to encircle Ukraine's Bakhmut - commander

DONETSK PROVINCE, Ukraine (Reuters) -The situation in the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut was "extremely tense" on Tuesday, the commander of Ukrainian ground forces said, as Russian troops besieging it stepped up their assault in a bid to encircle it.

Russia is trying to cut the Ukrainian defenders' supply lines to the city, the scene of some of the war's toughest fighting, and force them to surrender or withdraw. That would give Russia its first major prize in more than half a year and open the way to the capture of the last remaining urban centres in the Donetsk region.

"Despite significant losses, the enemy threw in the most prepared assault units of Wagner, who are trying to break through the defences of our troops and surround the city," Ukraine's Colonel general Oleksandr Syrskyi was quoted as saying on a military messaging platform.

Ukraine's military said earlier Russia had strengthened its forces in the Bakhmut area and was shelling settlements around the city.

"Over the past day, our soldiers repelled more than 60 enemy attacks," the military said early on Tuesday referring to Bakhmut and nearby eastern areas, adding that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian attacks on the villages of Yadhidne and Berkhivka, on the northern approaches to Bakhmut.

Ukrainian military analyst Oleh Zhdanov said Russian forces had driven a wedge between those villages as they tried to cut the road west to Chasiv Yar.

"The southern part of Bakhmut is the only area which can be described as under Ukrainian control. In all other districts, the situation is unpredictable," he said in a video commentary, adding: "It is impossible to say where the front line lies."

Ukrainian soldiers in Donetsk region hunkered in muddy trenches after warmer weather thawed out the frozen ground.

"Both sides stay in their positions, because as you see, spring means mud. Thus, it is impossible to move forward," said Mykola, 59, commander of a Ukrainian frontline rocket launcher battery, watching a tablet screen for coordinates to fire.

The spring thaw, known as the rasputitsa, has a history of ruining plans by armies to attack across Ukraine and western Russia, turning roads into rivers and fields into quagmires.

Reuters saw several military vehicles stuck in mud. In a zigzag trench, Volodymyr, a 25-year-old platoon commander, said his men were prepared to operate in any weather.

"When we're given a target that means we have to destroy it."

Russia, its forces replenished with hundreds of thousands of conscripts, has intensified its attacks along the eastern front but its assaults have come at a high cost, Ukraine and its allies say.

"Vicious battles are going on there. The command is doing everything it can to stop the enemy from advancing through our territory," Serhiy Cherevatyi, a spokesperson for Ukraine's eastern military command, told Ukrainian television.

Russia said its forces had destroyed a Ukrainian ammunition depot near Bakhmut and shot down U.S.-made rockets and Ukrainian drones.

Reuters could not verify the battlefield reports.

The Russian defence ministry said the United States was planning a provocation in Ukraine using toxic chemicals. There was no immediate U.S. response.

YELLEN IN KYIV

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen became the latest senior Western official to visit the Ukrainian capital, promising assistance and more measures to isolate Russia after meetings with President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and other officials.

Her boss, President Joe Biden, went there a week ago to mark the first anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

"America will stand with Ukraine as long as it takes," Yellen, flanked by sandbags at the Cabinet office, told Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal.

Yellen announced the transfer of the first $1.25 billion from the latest, $9.9 billion tranche of U.S. economic and budget assistance, and visited a school where teacher salaries are reimbursed with U.S. support.

She also backed completion of a fully financed programme for Ukraine with the International Monetary Fund by the end of March.

Ukraine's forces have mostly focused on holding defensive positions in recent weeks but are expected to attempt a counter-offensive later in the year with new weapons from the West.

Zelenskiy pushed again for F-16 fighter jets that his Western allies have been reluctant to provide.

"We will be able to completely protect our skies when the aviation taboo is fully lifted in relations with our partners," Zelenskiy said in his nightly radio address.

The Feb. 24 first anniversary of Russia's invasion saw both sides trying to demonstrate resolve for a second year of war.

Russian President Vladimir Putin gave a speech in which he abandoned the last remaining nuclear arms control treaty with the United States but announced no major initiatives to change the war's course.

He was upstaged by Biden, who journeyed to Kyiv and gave a landmark speech of his own in Warsaw.

Ukraine's outnumbered troops repelled Russia's attack aimed at taking the capital early in the war and later recaptured substantial territory. Russia still occupies nearly a fifth of Ukraine which it claims to have annexed.

(Reporting by Reuters bureaux; Writing by Stephen Coates and Robert Birsel; Editing by Himani Sarkar and Stephen Coates)
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/extremely-tense-as-russians-bid-to-encircle-ukraine-s-bakhmut-commander/ar-AA181FJW?ocid=mailsignout&pc=U591&cvid=43d01733ae9644f08e58c0b5f67a3c23

[mapuc]

As I have mentioned before I have online friends who is angry about the weapon, ammo and other stuff we send to Ukraine to help them fight the invaders from Russia

I also have friends who support this gestus.

I wanna find a very good explanation on why we feel/need/have to give military aid to Ukraine.

I wanna use this when I discuss Ukraine with those friends who's against it.
Some info. They do not believe in the story that Russia will take on some Nato country after they have taken Ukraine.

Markus

[Jimbuna]

Zelensky says situation in Bakhmut worsening

By Alys Davies
BBC News

The situation in the city of Bakhmut, on the eastern frontline, is becoming "more and more difficult", Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky has said.

Russian forces have been trying to take the city for over six months.

"The enemy is constantly destroying everything that can be used to protect our positions", Mr Zelensky stated.

The Ukrainian leader's remarks came as US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned China against arming Russia during a visit to Kyiv on Monday.

Some of the fiercest fighting to take place since Russia invaded Ukraine just over a year ago has taken place in Bakhmut, in Ukraine's Donetsk region, part of which is under the control of Russia and its separatist allies.

Recently efforts by Russian forces to capture the industrial city have intensified, with its troops gaining ground.

The separatist leader of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic, Denis Pushilin, said "practically all roads" into the city were "under [Russian] fire control".

And the commander of Ukraine's ground forces, Col Gen Oleksandr Syrskyi, said the situation around Bakhmut was "extremely tense".

"Despite significant losses, the enemy threw in the most prepared assault units of Wagner, who are trying to break through the defences of our troops and surround the city," Gen Syrskyi said.

Speaking about the situation in his nightly address, President Zelensky said managing to gain a foothold in Bakhmut and ensuring its defence were being heavily compromised by Russia's renewed onslaught.

He was "grateful to each and every person who is heroically holding" the area.

President Zelensky also called once again for modern combat aircraft to be sent so that "the entire territory of our country" can be defended from "Russian terror".

On her surprise visit to Kyiv on Monday, Janet Yellen announced the latest transfer of $1.25bn (£1bn) in economic and budget aid to Ukraine.

Ms Yellen reiterated US President Joe Biden's message - made during his own visit to Kyiv last week - that Washington would stand with Ukraine for as long as it took to win the war.

Speaking to CNN, Ms Yellen added that while Russia's economy had not yet buckled under the vast sanctions imposed on Russia by Western powers, she expected it to grow weaker over time.

She also stated that Russia's ability to replenish military equipment destroyed in attacks on Ukraine was being "gradually jeopardized", adding that any move from China to supply such weaponry to Russia would lead to "severe" consequences.

"We have been extremely clear that we will not tolerate systematic violations by any country of the sanctions that we have put in place that are intended to deprive Russia of access to military equipment to wage this war," she said.

"And we have been very clear with the Chinese government and have made clear to Chinese firms and financial institutions that the consequences of violating those sanctions would be very severe."

Last week US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said China was considering supplying weapons and ammunition to Russia. Beijing strongly denied the claim.

A meeting between China's top diplomat, Wang Yi, and Russia's President Vladimir Putin in Moscow last week looked to many to be an indication of China's close ties with Russia.

And Mr Putin's staunch ally, Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko, is scheduled to begin a three day tour of China on Tuesday. During the visit he is expected to meet with President Xi Jinping.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64793923

[Jimbuna]

Russia is conducting largest child abduction operation in modern history, - Kuleba

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs continues to work on expanding the international coalition to establish a Special Tribunal for the crime of aggression against Ukraine and bring the military and political leadership of the Russian Federation to justice.

On Monday, February 27, Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba called for support for the Special Tribunal, opening a special ministerial event on the sidelines of the 52nd session of the UN Human Rights Council, "Aggression against Ukraine: Impact on Human Rights and Humanitarian Situation in Ukraine and the World", reports Censor.NЕТ with reference to рress service of MFA.

The event was attended by a total of 55 countries, including foreign ministers: Belgium, Denmark, Costa Rica, France, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Marshall Islands, Slovenia, Sweden, and the United Kingdom.

The geography of the participants demonstrates that accountability for Russia's crimes is a priority for the global coalition of states, including the countries of the Global South.

"We do not stop working on the establishment of a Special Tribunal to bring to justice the political and military leadership of Russia and their accomplices for the crime of aggression against Ukraine. All Russian atrocities are derived from it. We need to eliminate the causes, not just the symptoms," the minister said.

The Ukrainian Foreign Minister also drew attention to the numerous violations of international humanitarian and human rights law, war crimes, crimes against humanity, and genocide by the Russians, including the abduction of Ukrainian children and their forced adoption into Russian families.

"Russia is implementing perhaps the largest child abduction operation in modern history. The Convention on the Prevention of Genocide clearly defines this as a crime of genocide. These children need immediate protection and return home. All Russian criminals involved in this operation must be brought to justice for their participation in genocide," the Minister emphasized.

Dmytro Kuleba also called on the member states of the UN Human Rights Council to extend the mandate of the UN International Independent Commission of Inquiry to investigate violations in Ukraine.

"The UN International Independent Commission documents evidence of large-scale and systematic human rights violations, war crimes, and crimes against humanity by Russia, which will be used in future international trials. The extension of the mandate will be a significant contribution to ensuring justice," he emphasized.

The Ukrainian Foreign Minister expressed his gratitude to the UN and other international organizations and their donors for helping Ukrainians during the full-scale Russian aggression against Ukraine.

As a reminder, on January 26, representatives of 21 states gathered in Prague for the inaugural meeting of the Coalition for the establishment of the Special Tribunal, organized by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine to develop parameters for bringing the political and military leadership of the Russian Federation to justice for the crime of aggression against our country.

On February 22, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine gathered 45 states for a high-level UN event dedicated to human rights violations during the Russian aggression, one of the key topics of which was the creation of the Special Tribunal.

Following talks by Ukraine's Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba in New York, Guatemala became the first Latin American country to join the Coalition for the Establishment of the Special Tribunal. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3402616

[Jimbuna]

Yellen on sanctions: Over time, we will see increased losses in Russia’s economic trajectory

The U.S. Treasury Department expects that the economic trajectory of the Russian Federation will show serious dips in the near future, when sanctions and other restrictions imposed by the international community will have had their effect.

This was stated by U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen in an interview with CNN during her visit to Kyiv, reports Censor.NЕТ with reference to Ukrinform.

"Over time, we will see an increase in losses in Russia's economic trajectory," the Head of the US Treasury noted.

She also emphasized that the Russians will increasingly lose their ability to restore their stockpiles of weapons and military equipment. "This (for Russia - Ed.) is under serious threat," Yellen emphasized.

She also commented on the potential "serious consequences" for China if it decides to provide lethal assistance to Russia.

"We have made it clear that we will not tolerate systematic violations by any country of the sanctions we have imposed to deny Russia access to military equipment to wage this war," the US Treasury Secretary emphasized.

She noted that the United States has made it very clear to the Chinese government, financial institutions, and companies in China that "the consequences of violating these sanctions will be very serious." Source: https://censor.net/en/n3402617

War in Ukraine will be main topic of meeting between Biden and Scholz - White House

The White House confirmed that the main topic of the meeting between the German Chancellor and the US President in Washington this week will be support for Ukraine and response to threats from Russia.

This was emphasized on Monday during a press briefing by John Kirby, coordinator of the US National Security Council, reports Censor.NЕТ with reference to Ukrinform.

"There is no doubt that the war in Ukraine will be a major topic of discussion, and this will give President Biden another chance to thank the Chancellor as well as the people of Germany for their support for Ukraine," the US Administration official emphasized.

He positively noted Germany's increased activity in terms of assistance to Ukraine, including the announcement of the provision of Leopard tanks and other weapons and equipment.

The White House official also emphasized that Germany is a reliable NATO ally, a good friend and partner.

"So we're grateful for all of that and we look forward to a good discussion," Kirby emphasized. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3402628

Belgium has frozen 58 billion euros of Russian assets - largest among EU countries

The Belgian Ministry of Finance froze 58 billion euros of Russian assets, the largest amount of any EU country.

This is stated by Censor.NЕТ with reference to Ukrinform.

In addition, the Belgian Ministry of Finance has blocked Russian financial transactions worth €191 billion related to 1789 companies and Russian citizens on the EU sanctions list.

It is noted that the Belgian customs is tightening import and export controls in relation to Russia and Belarus. Currently, 529 containers have been blocked pending further information on the destination of the goods, and more than a thousand cars have been recognized as unable to be shipped to Russia. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3402631

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TwHAee_n-18

[Jimbuna]

Putin set to unleash fury as NATO boss says Kyiv will become member

Ukraine "will become a member" of NATO, the alliance's secretary general has said, in what amounts to a major blow to Vladimir Putin. Ukraine's status as a de facto member of NATO.



NATO secretary general Jens Stoltenberg
NATO secretary general Jens Stoltenberg
© AP
Ukraine "will become a member" of NATO, the alliance's secretary general has said, in what amounts to a major blow to Vladimir Putin. Ukraine's status as a de facto member of
Current Time 0:07
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Duration 1:23
France 24
Ukraine army says situation 'extremely tense' around Bakhmut
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NATO has precluded Western forces sending their own soldiers into the battlefield, a move which would have likely spelled disaster for Russia's Armed Forces, but Mr Stoltenberg said on Tuesday that their accession is now just a matter of time.
Vladimir Putin has repeatedly cited the eastern expansion of NATO's border with Russia as one of the reasons for his brutal invasion of Ukraine, but thus far, the war has only served to further increase the line of contact with the alliance.

Speaking to reporters in Helsinki, Mr Stoltenberg said: "NATO allies have agreed that Ukraine will become a member of our alliance, but at the same time that is a long-term perspective."
The comments mark the first time Mr Stoltenberg has directly addressed Ukraine's hopes of joining NATO, an accessionary move that many believed might not ever happen.

He spoke ahead of a parliamentary debate in Finland aimed at accelerating their bid to join NATO, with a vote expected on Wednesday.

Both Finland and Sweden ended their decades-long policy of military neutrality last year, in light of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, expressing a desire to join the Western defensive alliance, a request that was met with welcome from NATO.

While Turkey and Hungary are currently blocking the two Nordic nation's applications, Mr Stoltenberg has said he expects these issues to be resolved.

If Finland successfully joins NATO, the alliance's border with Russia will effectively double.

If Ukraine is allowed to join, that would add a further 1,000 miles of contact with Russia.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/ukraine-live-putin-set-to-unleash-fury-as-nato-boss-says-kyiv-will-become-member/ar-AA181uhq?ocid=mailsignout&pc=U591&cvid=02f8587d7d6c482e89340eda796feacb

[Jimbuna]

Justin Trudeau shuts down heckler during speech at Ukraine rally

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/OoH38f3_DK8

[Dargo]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=94bqk8cB9iQ

Spot on.

[August]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=94bqk8cB9iQ




\\https://www.subsim.com/radioroom/showpost.php?p=2854211&postcount=9971

[Catfish]

Justin Trudeau shuts down heckler during speech at Ukraine rally [...] :cool:


Ukraine's concept of total resistance, as Daniel Bilak calls it.
And "There is a cost of doing business with tyrants and autocrats."
I hope german and US companies understand this now.

Russia is throwing ten thousands of "fighters" into Putin's invasion with minor successes, with tenthousands of russians annihilated. WW2 "tactics" and no real strategy.

https://youtu.be/ab24tDK9pV0


Also

https://youtu.be/Br05Lu3BdpM

[Dargo]

\\https://www.subsim.com/radioroom/showpost.php?p=2854211&postcount=9971:oops:

[Skybird]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QU0resswOds

If really so many of the numbers are just invented, then I am in need to correct my view on Russian economy status.

[Dargo]

More of Russia's soldiers have died in Ukraine — a war Putin thought would be over in days — than in all its wars since World War II combined, new analysis finds
More Russian soldiers have died in combat in Ukraine than in all of its wars since World War II combined, a new analysis has revealed.

According to a brief from the Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS), between 60,000 and 70,000 Russian soldiers have been killed on the battlefield in Ukraine. Moscow's troops are dying each month at a rate "at least 25 times the number killed per month in Chechnya and 35 times the number killed in Afghanistan," the analysis said, citing two particularly deadly wars for Russia and its predecessor, the Soviet Union, respectively.

This lower figure of 60,000 is still greater than all the Russian soldiers that were killed in wars since World War II, during which 8.7 million Soviet Union soldiers died, although exact figures are still debated by historians. As many as 50,000 Russian soldiers were killed in the 16 later wars included in the analysis, which stretches from 1950 until present day and includes wars in places like Korea, Georgia, Syria, and Angola.

The CSIS analysis said the high casualties are the result of Ukrainian "military innovation," as well as moves like Ukraine's defense of Kyiv in the spring of 2022 and counteroffensive action in the territory around Kharkiv in the northeast late last year.

Earlier this month, Britain's defense ministry shared in an intelligence update that Russian forces had "likely" suffered between 175,000 and 200,000 casualties since the start of Moscow's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. It added that between 40,000 and 60,000 soldiers have likely been killed. A top US diplomat echoed this estimate and said in mid-February that over 200,000 Russian troops have been killed or wounded on the battlefield.

The casualty rate reportedly skyrocketed after Russian President Vladimir Putin imposed a partial military mobilization of Russian reservists in September 2022, Britain's defense ministry noted. Insider previously reported that as many as 13,000 Ukrainian soldiers had been killed in combat as of December 2022.

Despite high losses, both sides are now fighting "a war of attrition" to wear each other down, chip away at defenses, and replenish resources as quickly as possible, according to the CSIS analysis. Although neither side has gained much territory since late 2022, "casualty rates have increased."

Military experts have said that the campaign is at a pivotal moment, as Ukraine must absorb Russian advances for long enough to see the forthcoming delivery of advanced Western armor and weaponry.

The CSIS update on the war's casualty figures comes just days after the first anniversary of Russia's invasion. When Russia invaded Ukraine in late February 2022, Putin originally believed he could capture Kyiv in a matter of days. But Russian generals seriously overestimated Russia's military and underestimated Ukrainian forces, resulting in poor strategy, command failures, and completely mismanaged logistics.

Ukraine, although originally mismatched in terms of military power and resources, was able to resist Russia's initial advances toward the capital and force Russian troops to withdraw from the Kyiv area and ultimately shift focus to Ukraine's eastern Donbas region. https://www.businessinsider.com/more-russian-soldiers-died-ukraine-than-all-wars-since-wwii-2023-2?international=true&r=US&IR=T

[mapuc]

There's a saying
"Choose your battles carefully"(can't remember who said it or wrote it first)

It's about the battle around Bakhmut.

The Wagner group and the Russian doesn't care how many thousands they will lose in their effort to take Bakhmut and the surroundings.

For the Ukrainian it's different-They can't afford losing to many men-I would say they should with draw together with the civilians who wants to leave with the UA.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PIDc3eKuniw&ab_channel=DenysDavydov

Markus

[Skybird]

Just a theory, but its possible that they mull an offensive towards the coast and want to bind as many Russian troops and their attention in Bachmut to keep them away from the planned areas for that offensive. In chess that would be called a gambit. Its important they can break through to the coast, to bring the bridge to Crimea under bombardement and cut supply lines there by shreddering it, and also to isolate Russian forces towards Cherson, whose supply lines to the Russian occupied inland oblasts also would be interrupted by a successful such move.

[Dargo]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QU0resswOds

If really so many of the numbers are just invented, then I am in need to correct my view on Russian economy status.Not a surprise when you lose your biggest market (Europe) you need to start lying for your own safety.

[Skybird]

What a contrast:

The Poles really mean business. After their Korean tank and weapons deal (of the ordered 1000 MBTs they got their first ten K2 and two dozen howitzers in Decembre), they now have placed orders for 1000 IFV of the type Borsuk (Badger).

Meanwhile leading party bosses of the German SPD have slammed down the German defence minister's demand for an additional 10 bn this year since the defence budget for this year does not hold things together. Some form the SPD and Greens, and the oppositional SED anyway even want to reduce defence spendings already this year and redirect the funds to their beloved social topics and development aid. The SED even has once again called for the dismantling of NATO.

"By their deeds you shall know them." :03:

[mapuc]

What a contrast:

The Poles really mean business. After their Korean tank and weapons deal (of the ordered 1000 MBTs they got their first ten K2 and two dozen howitzers in Decembre), they now have placed orders for 1000 IFV of the type Borsuk (Badger).

Meanwhile leading party bosses of the German SPD have slammed down the German defence minister's demand for an additional 10 bn this year since the defence budget for this year does not hold things together. Some form the SPD and Greens, and the oppositional SED anyway even want to reduce defence spendings already this year and redirect the funds to their beloved social topics and development aid. The SED even has once again called for the dismantling of NATO.

"By their deeds you shall know them." :03:

As I have written before. If there's a NATO country who would go alone and join Ukraine in their fight against Russia then it is Poland. Next is Slovakia.

Markus

[Dargo]

Just a theory, but its possible that they mull an offensive towards the coast and want to bind as many Russian troops and their attention in Bachmut to keep them away from the planned areas for that offensive. In chess that would be called a gambit. Its important they can break through to the coast, to bring the bridge to Crimea under bombardement and cut supply lines there by shreddering it, and also to isolate Russian forces towards Cherson, whose supply lines to the Russian occupied inland oblasts also would be interrupted by a successful such move.This is not a theory it's a plan only the place is maybe not where you think but cutting the front in two to obstruct the supply is a goal that why we see explosions in Mariupol Russians made it a supply harbor what Ukraine try to disrupt.

[Dargo]

What a contrast:

The Poles really mean business. After their Korean tank and weapons deal (of the ordered 1000 MBTs they got their first ten K2 and two dozen howitzers in Decembre), they now have placed orders for 1000 IFV of the type Borsuk (Badger).

Meanwhile leading party bosses of the German SPD have slammed down the German defence minister's demand for an additional 10 bn this year since the defence budget for this year does not hold things together. Some form the SPD and Greens, and the oppositional SED anyway even want to reduce defence spendings already this year and redirect the funds to their beloved social topics and development aid. The SED even has once again called for the dismantling of NATO.

"By their deeds you shall know them." :03:The Poles really mean business because history taught them not to allow a strong Russia at their border.

[Skybird]

This is not a theory it's a plan only the place is maybe not where you think but cutting the front in two to obstruct the supply is a goal that why we see explosions in Mariupol Russians made it a supply harbor what Ukraine try to disrupt.
My money's on Melitopol, that is where they will try to break through.

They will assume the Russians consider that, too.

An thus maybe will strike somewhere else instead.

:D

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BBqkFCsaTis

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ds2mBs_4E5I

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C93lYS1w9bI

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gUDfJ-vGEtM

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C4TCB66WZqY

[Jimbuna]

European Commission wants to transfer EU from peacetime to wartime and increase production of ammunition, - Spiegel

The European Commission wants to present to the member states a plan that will not only ensure the supply of ammunition to Ukraine as part of the defense against the Russian invasion, but also replenish stocks in the EU countries.

As Censor.NET reports with reference to "Euro Integration", the draft document is at the disposal of Spiegel.

The plan consists of three components.

The first component provides for an immediate increase in supplies of ammunition, in particular 155-mm artillery shells, to Ukraine. EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell will soon propose an additional €1 billion support package for the supply of ammunition, primarily 155 mm shells.

The second component involves the joint procurement of 155-mm ammunition by the European Defense Agency EDA with the aim of filling gaps in the stockpiles of EU countries and ensuring the supply of Ukraine in the long term.

The third component is designed to ensure a long-term increase in European ammunition production capacity, taking into account changes in the security situation.

Emergency aid under the first component will be provided according to an already established scheme: EU countries supply ammunition to Ukraine, and in return receive money from the European Peace Fund (EPF). Its financial coverage has already increased three times by 500 million euros, and in December it was decided to increase it to 2 billion euros.

The second component of the plan carries a clear message: the time when peace in Europe was considered guaranteed is over. The situation has fundamentally changed with Russia's attack on Ukraine, and EU countries must take this into account - by purchasing more ammunition in the long term.

This should be done through the EDA project. EU member states and Ukraine should combine their needs to "place a mass order and give the industry a clear signal about demand," the document says.

According to the European Commission, only if the industry is sure that such demand exists, it will be ready to increase its production capacity in the long term.

The commission also hopes that joint ordering will lead to significantly lower prices than before. 25 out of 27 EU countries and Norway have already expressed interest in participating in the project, which will last seven years.

The third component should solve the main problem: the "rapid reduction" of ammunition stocks in EU countries and the insufficient capacities for their production, which must now be "rapidly increased".

The European Commission sees itself more as a mediator and organizer, for example by identifying gaps in production capacity and helping with procurement. The real responsibility for production lies with industry and the governments of the EU countries.

EU defense ministers are expected to discuss the proposals at an informal meeting in Stockholm early next week. Decisions can be made already at the next summit of heads of state and government at the end of March. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3403027

It is Russia that must take steps to achieve peace, - Scholz

Russia must take steps towards achieving peace, and for this it must withdraw its troops from the territory of Ukraine.

This was announced by Chancellor of Germany Olaf Scholz, Censor.NET reports with reference to Ukrinform.

"It is quite clear that Russia attacked Ukraine, and it is Russia that must take a step now... to make peace possible. And for this, the withdrawal of troops is necessary," the chancellor said.

He noted that the unity of the West, which is the guarantee of its strength and security, together with the determination of its partners, "surprised and irritated Putin." Source: https://censor.net/en/n3403024

Germany will increase production of ammunition to help Ukraine, - Scholz

Germany will increase the production of ammunition, as well as the capacity for the repair of weapons, in order to better support Ukraine in the fight against the invasion of the Russian Federation.

This was stated by Chancellor of Germany Olaf Scholz, Censor.NET reports with reference to Interfax-Ukraine.

"Continuous support to Ukraine throughout the year has also brought us the knowledge that allows us to ensure a sufficient supply of spare parts, we have created repair facilities for weapons used in the war in places outside of Ukraine," Scholz said.

The chancellor emphasized that Germany would make sure that "munitions production is advanced - both for weapons that we have supplied ourselves and for weapons that come from stocks available in Eastern Europe." Source: https://censor.net/en/n3403033

[Catfish]

https://i.imgur.com/s71P45Sl.jpg

[Catfish]

re Russia's economy:
Russia had around 8 trillion rubles of liquid assets in their fund left at the end of december 2022. So it looks like rubles missing for january 2023 was about 2 trillion, and from reports 6 trillion is left as of 1st of february.
Then sanctions made it worse with the ban of oil products in february. So the prediction is, it will be 3-4 more months till russian liquid reserves run out, and may be 2 more if they are able to "liquify" the illiquid assets of 4 trillion. The missing amount in january seems to have been 2 trillion rubles.

So Russia's liquidity should end in April/May, and after that they will most probably turn to desperate measures. The war ending may then be in march, if they are smarter, or after august if they are not.

Russian estimate was a 3 trillion ruble loss for 2023 as a whole but that was estimated with prices at 70-75 usd per barrel, which is unrealistic with the price cap and other sanctions by now. But 2 trillion rubes loss per month is encouraging, once liquidity runs out then keeping up can only be done by the printing press or robbery through "enforced contributions".

Even Reuters reports that Russia's oil revenues for January fell by 40%, $18.5 billion against $30 billion in January 2022.
This downfall will continue from february onwards, since newly imposed sanctions will come into effect.
Sanctions. work.

"Even a bankrupt Russia with barely even any military equipment can continue fighting. It is an interesting subject actually. The Russian capitulation is based on rational decision making, be it smart or stupid. It still has to be rational."

Continueing to fight with state bankruptcy is of course possible for Russia, but it is irrational for a state, while that might benefit only Putin, if he can use all that to maintain power at all.
The bankruptcy, following inflation, loosing battles and so on are just things that may cause the war to end.

Of couse "..things like social problems exploding, revolutions, unhappiness of the russian population under dictatorial rule are very hard to predict, because they can explode at any moment..."

[Skybird]

That something is irrational does not mean that the fascist gang in the Kremlin, fighting for their very biological survival, will not do it. They are in a corner, and no matter how the describe it, they must be either in reality-denial - or desperate.



If our number games are better than theirs I mean. The Warsaw Pact states were economically in ruins long before 1989 - and nevertheless held out another 1-2 decades before collapsing, depending on when you start counting. However, they were not locked in a war (though in an arms race).



Maybe that is why Putin told the centrla bank to still buying old like crazy. To get his stash out of the country in time. There are rumours he prepared escape to Africa.



How long does he think he will live...?? :doh:

[Jimbuna]

Royal Navy victory as Iranian weapons bound for Russia captured

British and American forces have joined efforts to intercept an illegal weapons shipment from Iran, during the operation, which took place in the Gulf of Oman, US forces provided support for intelligence gathering, surveillance, and reconnaissance to Royal Navy. The coordinated efforts between the two nations resulted in the discovery of anti-tank-guided missiles and missile components on a small boat of Iranian origin. HMS Lancaster, a Royal Navy frigate, confiscated the illicit weapons shipment, which included Iranian versions of Russian 9M133 Kornet anti-tank guided missiles, known as "Dehlavieh" in Iran, and medium-range ballistic missile components.

Vice Admiral Brad Cooper, commander of US Naval Forces Central Command, US 5th Fleet and Combined Maritime Forces said: "This is the seventh illegal weapon or drug interdiction in the last three months and yet another example of Iran's increasing malign maritime activity across the region.

"We will continue to work with our partners in pursuing any destabilizing activity that threatens regional maritime security and stability."
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/ukraine-live-royal-navy-victory-as-iranian-weapons-bound-for-russia-captured/ar-AA187wtK?ocid=mailsignout&pc=U591&cvid=051cbb919c6248e185797b8f6b8b6359&ei=19

[Jimbuna]

India G20: US and Russia trade blows at talks in Delhi

By Vikas Pandey & Leila Nathoo
BBC News, Delhi

Tensions over Russia's war in Ukraine have dominated G20 talks in Delhi, even after India's PM urged foreign ministers to put aside their divisions.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the meeting was marred by Russia's "unprovoked and unjustified war".

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov accused the West of "burying" a deal to allow some Ukrainian grain exports.

Earlier, Narendra Modi spoke for developing nations, saying those present had a responsibility to them.

The G20, which includes the world's 19 wealthiest nations plus the European Union, accounts for 85% of global economic output and two-thirds of its population.

Foreign ministers, including Mr Lavrov, Mr Blinken and China's Qin Gang, are in Delhi for the summit. A former Indian diplomat told the BBC India would have to "do something special" to make them overlook their differences over the war.

"We are meeting at a time of deep global divisions," Mr Modi told the ministers gathered in Delhi, urging delegates to find common ground.

"After years of progress, we are at risk today of moving back on the sustainable development goals. Many developing countries are struggling with unsustainable debts while trying to ensure food and energy security," he said.

"They are also most affected by global warming caused by richer countries. This is why India's G20 presidency has tried to give a voice to the Global South."

It was a rare address by Mr Modi in English - a sign of how seriously he wanted his message to be taken. He made no direct reference to the war in Ukraine but acknowledged that discussions would be affected by geopolitical tensions.

India's slogan for the G20 is "One Earth, One Family, One Future". Mr Modi called on delegates to take it to heart and focus on issues that unite them.

Thursday's schedule includes sessions on food security, development co-operation, terrorism and humanitarian assistance - a reflection of India's priorities while it holds the G20 presidency.

India will hope to mediate in what is likely to be a fractious meeting and make some progress towards a consensus on less politically contentious issues. But with Russia and the US expected to hold press conferences after the meeting, it's likely that divisions over Ukraine will leave a lasting impression.

Last week, G20 finance ministers failed to reach a consensus on a closing statement at their meeting in the city of Bangalore (Bengaluru), in the first ministerial meeting in the run-up to the leaders' summit later this year.

It was left to India to release a chair's summary which noted "different assessments of the situation" in Ukraine within the group. The foreign ministers' talks are likely to face similar hurdles.

It was evident from Mr Modi's speech opening Thursday's meeting that India wanted to deliver agreements that could help the developing world and fuel its global ambitions.

But experts say Delhi will also have the delicate task of balancing its non-aligned policy on the war, now into its second year, with pleas to other nations to find ways to work together.

Delhi has resisted pressure and continued with its strategy of not directly criticising Russia, which is India's largest supplier of arms.

It has regularly abstained from voting on UN resolutions condemning the war in Ukraine, including a vote held at the UN General Assembly last week.

It has also defended its decision to increase its oil imports from Russia, saying it has to look after the needs of more than a billion people.

But it has talked about the importance of "the UN Charter, international law, and respect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of states" in its past statements on Ukraine.

Mr Modi's statement on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit last autumn was viewed as indirect criticism of Russia. "Today's era is not of war," he told the meeting in Uzbekistan in the presence of President Vladimir Putin.

Despite the efforts of Mr Modi and his team, tensions over Ukraine dominated statements from some G20 members even before the meeting started.

"This war has to be condemned," Josep Borrell, the European Union's High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, told reporters, according to Reuters news agency.

"I hope, I am sure that India's diplomatic capacity will be used in order to make Russia understand that this war has to finish."

On Wednesday, India's top diplomat Vinay Kwatra said that while the war in Ukraine would be an important point of discussion, "questions relating to food, energy and fertiliser security, the impact that the conflict has on these economic challenges that we face" would also receive "due focus".

Strained relations between the US and China are also expected to test India's ability to forge a consensus.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-64796718

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5cu3N0y7Sf8

[mapuc]

How well is the Russian economy ?

Reason for my question is that there are those who say it's going well with their economy despite our sanction and embargo. While others say it's in a terrible state.

Markus

[Jimbuna]

I believe the latter to be the case.

[Jimbuna]

Russian Federation is creating tense situation in Moldova and Transnistria in order to divert attention from war in Ukraine and demonstrate some kind of "victory" to Russians, - Defence Intelligence

The Russian Federation is creating a tense situation in Moldova and Transnistria to divert attention from the war in Ukraine and demonstrate some kind of victory for the Russian people

As reported by Censor.NET with reference to RBC-Ukraine, Andrii Cherniak, a representative of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, informed about this.

According to him, the military intelligence of Ukraine records the events that are currently taking place in Moldova and the so-called unrecognized republic of Transnistria.

"In Transnistria, the Russians have a very limited contingent. There are warehouses that they guard. But there is almost nothing left in those warehouses, and what is left is old and unusable. And in Moldova, they are still trying to destabilize the situation politically - under a "foreign flag", Cherniak noted.

He reminded that under such a scenario, the Russians once arranged a similar event in Donetsk and Luhansk.

"In our opinion, by creating tension in Moldova, Russia is setting two goals for itself. The first is an attempt to distract the European public from the events taking place in Ukraine. They see that all attention is focused on Ukraine, particularly in the sense of aid. Therefore, they are trying to start a new fire in Europe," Cherniak explained.

Secondly, according to him, it is aimed at the domestic consumer in Russia.

"After all, they have not achieved any results in their so-called "special military operation". Therefore, they need to demonstrate any "victories" for their population. Now they are trying to make some kind of revolution in order to create the illusion that "the world is for them", "the people of Moldova are for us", Cherniak noted. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3403164

In coming weeks, Germany will hand over new Gepard air defense systems and IRIS-T system to Ukraine, - Scholz

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said that Ukraine will receive new Gepard anti-aircraft self-propelled guns and the IRIS-T air defense system in the coming weeks.

This is reported by Censor.NET with reference to LIGA.net.

According to him, Germany will continue to stably provide military aid to Ukraine.

Scholz noted that in the coming weeks, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will receive new Gepard air defense systems and the IRIS-T system, and the Federal Republic of Germany is working to provide Ukraine with additional ammunition.

The chancellor also addressed critics of the arms supply, saying his government never makes military aid decisions lightly.

The head of the German government promised to develop the Bundeswehr and put an end to the contemptuous attitude towards the armed forces. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3403170

Dutch Foreign Minister Hoekstra - China: Military aid to Russia will have consequences

Dutch Foreign Minister Wopke Hoekstra said China will face consequences if it considers supplying Russia with weapons for its war in Ukraine.

This is reported by Censor.NET with reference to the EP.

"What I will convey to each of my colleagues, including my Chinese colleague, is that the truth is not somewhere in the middle. There is only one responsible country, and that is Russia," Hoekstra said.

"Militarily helping Moscow will have consequences. If the countries cross this line, in my opinion," the minister added. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3403174

[August]

In epic tank battle, Ukraine outmaneuvers and decimates Russian forces

‘BIGGEST TANK BATTLE OF THE WAR’:

As Russian commanders desperate for a win in Ukraine continue to throw their best troops into the battle for the eastern town of Bakhmut, we’re learning more details about the country’s catastrophic losses suffered last month in the failed siege of the southern town of Vuhledar.
The heavy losses suffered by Russia’s elite 155th Naval Infantry have been previously documented (https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1629728408530821120?s=20) by British intelligence and in tweets (https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1631192042549264384?s=20) from the Ukrainian Defense Ministry, but an investigation (https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/01/world/europe/ukraine-russia-tanks.html) by the New York Times reveals the extent of the battlefield blunders that reportedly produced what Ukrainian officials say was “the biggest tank battle of the war so far, and a stinging setback for the Russians.”

“Not only had Russia failed to capture Vuhledar, but it also had made the same mistake that cost Moscow hundreds of tanks earlier in the war: advancing columns into ambushes,” the paper reported.

“NYT reported that Russian forces lost at least 130 tanks and armored personnel carriers (APCs) during the three-week offensive, forcing them to resort in the last week to frontal infantry attacks,” noted the Institute for the Study of War in its daily campaign assessment (https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-1-2023). “Ukrainian troops outlined their tactics to NYT, stating they lured Russian forces into kill zones before immobilizing Russian columns and channeling them into mine-laden road shoulders, before destroying them with artillery — including HIMARS, typically used against static, rear area targets.”

“ISW previously reported on Russian losses near Vuhledar and assessed that they are emblematic of the Russian military‘s inability to learn from its failures,” the ISW said, noting that the New York Times report “supports ISW’s assessment that the continued re-creation and reinforcement of Russian military failures will impede the Russian military’s ability to conduct effective offensive operations.”

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/defense-national-security/in-epic-tank-battle-ukraine-outmaneuvers-and-decimates-russian-forces

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CWmJszedWJ8

[Skybird]

How well is the Russian economy ?

https://www.subsim.com/radioroom/showpost.php?p=2855625&postcount=10124


If he is right ^, its much worse than I would have assumed. The numbers our assessments (that of international and Western economy institutions) so far based on may have been spin-doctored to a wider degree than previously realised, he implies.



Lets hope he is right.

[Jimbuna]

Blinken and Lavrov spoke for first time since beginning of invasion, in particular about Ukraine, - Sky News

US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov had a brief conversation on the sidelines of today’s meeting of G20 diplomats.

This is reported by Censor.NET with reference to Sky News.

According to the publication, Blinken and Lavrov talked for about 10 minutes. It was their first face-to-face conversation since the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation.

A senior U.S. official said Blinken urged Russia to reverse its decision to suspend participation in a major nuclear treaty on strategic offensive weapons.

"He also emphasized to Lavrov that the United States will support Ukraine "as much as it takes" - this line was repeatedly repeated by President Joe Biden," the message reads.

Finally, he called on Moscow to release the detained American Paul Whelan, who was detained in Russia in 2018.

The interlocutor of the publication noted that Blinken did not have the impression that changes in the Russian position will take place in the near future after the discussion. The source refused to describe Lavrov's reaction.

Russian mass media report that the two officials did not meet on the sidelines of the summit, but spoke on the go. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3403233

Heads of foreign affairs of G20 countries did not agree on final statement due to differences regarding Russian Federation’s war against Ukraine

The foreign ministers of the G20 countries could not agree on a joint final declaration at a meeting in India due to the dispute over the war in Ukraine.

This is reported by Censor.NET with reference to the Euro Integration.

Instead, India, which chaired the meeting, released its own summary of the discussions.

The majority of states once again strongly condemned the Russian war of aggression and demanded the unconditional withdrawal of troops from the territory of Ukraine. Russian and Chinese Foreign Ministers Sergey Lavrov and Qin Gang disagreed with two relevant points.

Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar told reporters at the end of the meeting that a joint final declaration had not been adopted due to "very polarized views of some countries".

He emphasized that India made great efforts to find a compromise. Jaishankar said the ministers reached an agreement on many issues, including the need for reforms, multilateralism, food security, global health and climate change. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3403227

State Duma of Russian Federation wants to declare war on Ukraine

Viktor Sobolev, a member of the Defense Committee of the State Duma of the Russian Federation, called to declare war on Ukraine.

NEWS.ru writes about it, Censor.NET reports.

"We don't have any red lines left regarding Ukraine. And we definitely need to end the special military operation and start waging a real war. With the destruction of means and facilities of communications, with the coverage of arms deliveries. And this should have been done a long time ago," - said Sobolev.

In addition, he called for an urgent strengthening of the borders and mentioned the events in the Bryansk region of the Russian Federation. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3403250

[Skybird]

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/articles/2023/02/28/7391273/

Kremlin's two plans. Who would govern Ukraine if Kyiv fell.



"If you think that the Russians had a solid plan of who would come here and rule, then you are wrong. The main thing was for our capital to fall. On the third day, as per their plan. On the tenth day, they would have control over the entire country. Surnames of those who would be the new 'government' were not that much of importance for them," a high-ranking official in the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine told Ukrainska Pravda.

[Skybird]

The "tank alliance " for Kyiv is turning into a fiasco.

https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/devastating-moment-clarity-ukraine



And even the - far-left-leaning! - Frankfurter Rundschau:
-------------------------------

Tank "fiasco" in the Ukraine war? Traffic light coalition mocks Leopard demands

Western countries want to support Ukraine with modern battle tanks. But pledges by many countries are followed only by hesitant action.

Berlin - For several weeks, Olaf Scholz (SPD) was seen as the main reason for the failure to deliver tanks to Ukraine. Less than a month after he agreed to the deliveries after all, the tide seems to have turned. Now Germany is acting as the driving force behind a Western tank alliance and must strongly urge its partners to keep their promises. Observers are already talking about a fiasco with far-reaching consequences.

The initial situation: The EU states want to deliver a total of 62 Leopard 2 tanks - divided into two battalions - to Ukraine by the end of March. About half of the tanks are to be provided by Germany and Poland. The German government has increased its original commitment once again. Instead of 14, as many as 18 main battle tanks are to be delivered from the Bundeswehr's stocks by the end of March. This corresponds to more than half of the first battalion.

Poland was already acting as a driving force in the debate on the battle tank deliveries and massively increased the pressure on Germany at the beginning of the year. At the height of the debate, Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki announced that he would definitely deliver German battle tanks to Ukraine. Even if no permission were to be obtained from Berlin.
Leopard 2 tanks for Ukraine: Netherlands backs down on deliveries

However, it is the other countries that are responsible for the fact that the European tank alliance could turn out to be a complete failure. At the beginning of the year, many governments were still putting pressure on the German chancellor. Now they seem unable to remember their own promises.

Symptomatic of the circumstances is the situation of the Netherlands. 18 Leopard 2 tanks - as many as Germany - had initially been promised, but in the end not a single one will be delivered. The reason: The Netherlands does not own any Leopard 2 tanks itself, but has merely leased them from Germany. A spokeswoman for the Ministry of Defense referred to a decision by Berlin. Shortly afterwards, the German government announced that it had not received any official request for the tanks from The Hague.
Several countries withdraw battle tank commitments - Finland and

Denmark also initially drop out for a tank alliance. Of the total 44 Leopard 2 tanks, the majority would be on a NATO mission in Estonia. The government in Copenhagen wants to keep the rest for national defense. In Germany, too, there have recently been repeated voices raising doubts about the Bundeswehr's operational capability as a result of the deliveries.

The Spanish, who had been among the biggest proponents of a tank alliance, also became more cautious in their announcements. Madrid needs most of its tanks for national defense. Probably also as a deterrent against Morocco in the dispute over the exclaves of Ceuta and Melilla. Finland completely canceled the delivery of battle tanks to Ukraine with reference to its own border with Russia, which is almost 1,300 kilometers long. Instead, it wants to supply three mine-clearing tanks. And Sweden initially wanted to make the supply of Leopard 2 tanks conditional on its acceptance into NATO.

Chancellor Scholz suddenly went from being a major blocker to a driving force and had to collect the tanks from his allies. His defense minister, Boris Pistorius (SPD), could not refrain from a certain amount of mockery. The 62-year-old spoke of "announcement champions" in view of the partners' failure to make commitments. In a report on Thursday, Die Zeit also quoted another unnamed member of the German government, who spoke of a "beauty contest" among the Western states. It was about who can be Ukraine's "best friend," he said.

The U.S. magazine Tablet spoke of a "fiasco" in view of the sudden unwillingness to deliver. The hesitation of the allies would now have created exactly the scenario that the Chancellor wanted to avoid through his initial reluctance: an undertaking organized and led by Berlin. Moreover, this image is grist to the mill of critics of arms deliveries to Ukraine. Continued military support for Ukraine could thus increasingly lose support in the broader society.

At the Munich Security Conference just under two weeks ago, there was therefore a renewed appeal for commitments from the remaining allies. NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg appealed to Sweden, Denmark and Spain, among others, to "do everything in their power to supply modern weapons - including armored vehicles and battle tanks".

Ultimately, Sweden then announced its intention to supply ten battle tanks to Kiev. Together with three tanks from Portugal and the 18 "Leos" from Germany, the first battalion for Kiev was thus in place. In the second battle group, meanwhile, final details still have to be clarified. Should Spain deliver five tanks, this battalion would also be complete with the deliveries from Poland (14), Norway (8) and Canada (4).

Whether the delivery of the two battalions can really take place by the end of March remains to be seen. However, the provision of the 62 battle tanks could be an indication that the Western military alliance is less united in its approach than it appears.
-----------------------

[mapuc]

^ On which side is Germany who do they support in this war in Ukraine ?

Markus

[Skybird]

^ On which side is Germany who do they support in this war in Ukraine ?

Thats a tricky question :D - maybe that is why Bubble-Olaf is again travelling to Washington later this week. LOL

Serious, germany is mentioned as the third biggest weapons contributor and military funds provider after the US and the UK. That should answer your question. In one way.

The other way to answer is to standardize the support a country gives against its size and economic power. Obviously Germany does much less of what it could (financially in the main) do than the Poles and the Baltic states. Of the bigger powers, France and Italy do even less than Germany.

https://www.ifw-kiel.de/de/themendossiers/krieg-gegen-die-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker/

But the problem with the Leopard-2s now is not Germany anymore, but the others who boasted with proud words while they thought they could hide passively behind Germany refusing to allow that and themselves they would never need to put their deeds where their mouths were. But the cards have been called, and their bluffs blew up.

Ironically, it all ended up the way Bubble-Olaf wanted to avoid at all cost: he must now be the driving force behind a tank alliance and organise it and be the leader of it. Something he really wanted to avoid at all cost, leaving that part to the US again.

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xjBnRge0yX0

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AYL_iRtWl4g

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PZs2WNBPwYo

[mapuc]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Kl_BycXWc8&ab_channel=DenysDavydov

I don't think we are witnessing a civil war in Russia-We may see the start of it thou.

Markus

[Dargo]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Kl_BycXWc8&ab_channel=DenysDavydov

I don't think we are witnessing a civil war in Russia-We may see the start of it thou.

MarkusI am not sure if this is real, smells more of an FSB operation to bolster fear so that Putin can ...

[Skybird]

^ My thoughts, too.

[August]

I am not sure if this is real, smells more of an FSB operation to bolster fear so that Putin can ...


Make Prigozhin fall off a balcony or get radioactive poisoning from his Borcht?

[mapuc]

I am not sure if this is real, smells more of an FSB operation to bolster fear so that Putin can ...

To be honest I have never given that angle any thoughts.

Markus

[Jimbuna]

Kyiv orders evacuation in Kupiansk, city it recaptured last year

By Oliver Slow
BBC News

Ukraine has told some residents to leave Kupiansk, as Russia seeks to re-take the city it left last year.

Kharkiv's military command urged families and those "with limited mobility" to leave due to "constant" shelling by Russian forces.

Russia took the city, an important supply hub, early in the full-scale invasion, with Ukraine re-capturing it last September.

Meanwhile, Wagner group says it troops have "practically encircled" Bakhmut.

Earlier this week, President Volodymyr Zelensky admitted the situation in Bakhmut - around 130km (80 miles) south of Kupiansk - was becoming "more and more difficult".

In Kupiansk, the Kharkiv Regional Military Administration said the evacuation order was due to the "unstable security situation" caused by Russia's shelling of the town and its surroundings.

It said those evacuated would be provided with assistance, including accommodation, food, humanitarian aid and medical support.

Other citizens are also permitted to leave the region, it added. The city had a pre-war population of around 25,000.

The Institute for the Study of War said this week that Russian forces were continuing "limited ground attacks" north-east of Kupiansk, as well as offensive operations around Kreminna, around 80km (50 miles) south.

Kupiansk - home to an important railway junction - has witnessed fierce fighting since the war began, with Russia taking control in a matter of days, and occupying the city for several months.

However, in September Ukrainian forces took back control amid a rapid counter-attack in the country's east that saw several towns brought under Kyiv's command.

Those advances were the most significant front-line changes since Russia withdrew from areas around Kyiv in April.

While the evacuation in Kupiansk suggests a worsening situation there, Bakhmut has seen fierce fighting for months.

In a video posted on Telegram, Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the paramilitary group Wagner, on Friday said that "pincers are closing in" around Bakhmut.

In a direct message to President Zelensky, he said Wagner units had "practically encircled" the city, with only one road remaining.

He called on the Ukrainian president to abandon the city.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64833750

[Jimbuna]

Putin could be out of cash within months as war drains Russia's pockets, says oligarch

ARussian oligarch close to the Kremlin has warned Russia's economy could be on its knees financially as soon as 2024. Speaking at an economic forum in Krasnoyarsk, energy and metals tycoon Oleg Deripaska warned Vladimir Putin's war on Ukraine is draining Russia's pockets.

Deripaska said the was has taken thousands of working men out of the economy and disrupted supply chains.

He warned: "The money will run out next year."

Deripaska claimed a de-escalation of the conflict would be unlikely until at least 2025.

He also accused the Russian government of starting a "shake down" of businesses to make up for the economic shortfall.

His comments come as Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken talked on Thursday in the highest-level in-person talks between the two countries since Russia's invasion of Ukraine. But there was no indication of any movement toward easing the intense tensions between their two nations.

The short encounter came as relations between Washington and Moscow have plummeted over Russia's war with Ukraine and tensions have soared amid a myriad of disagreements, complaints and recriminations on other matters ranging from arms control to embassy staffing and prisoners.

US officials said Blinken and Lavrov chatted for roughly 10 minutes on the sidelines of the G20 conference of foreign ministers in New Delhi.

But there was no sign of any progress and the conference itself ended with the grouping unable to reach consensus on the Ukraine war.

Still, with relations at perhaps their lowest point since the Cuban Missile Crisis during the Cold War, the mere fact that the two men met showed that, at least for the moment, lines of high-level communication between Washington and Moscow remains open.

At a news conference, Blinken said he told Lavrov that the US would continue to support Ukraine for as long as it takes and would push for the war to end through diplomatic terms that Kyiv agrees to.

"End this war of aggression, engage in meaningful diplomacy that can produce a just and durable peace," Blinken said he had told Lavrov. But, he noted that "President Putin has demonstrated zero interest in engaging, saying there's nothing to even talk about unless and until Ukraine accepts and I quote 'the new territorial reality'.""

Blinken said he also urged Russia to reverse "its irresponsible decision and return to" participation in the New START nuclear treaty.

"Mutual compliance is in the interest of both our countries," Blinken said he told Lavrov. He added "that no matter what else is happening in the world, in our relationship, the United States is always ready to engage and act on strategic arms control, just as the United States and the Soviet Union did even at the height of the Cold War."

Earlier, Blinken had told the G20 meeting that Russia's war with Ukraine could not go unchallenged.

"We must continue to call on Russia to end its war of aggression and withdraw from Ukraine for the sake of international peace and economic stability," Blinken said. He noted that 141 countries had voted to condemn Russia at the United Nations on the one-year anniversary of the invasion.

Yet, several members of the G20, including host India, China and South Africa, chose to abstain in that vote and despite appeals from top Indian officials to look beyond their differences over Ukraine and forge consensus on other issues, the foreign ministers were unable to do so or agree on a final communique.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/putin-could-be-out-of-cash-within-months-as-war-drains-russia-s-pockets-says-oligarch/ar-AA18aFie?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=7360eea4e8aa414cea10a4e2e8caf95c&ei=21

[mapuc]

I still say Ukraine will win this war despite the statement from this Finnish Officer.

Start of article from Finnish Yle.


According to the Finnish officer, Ukraine lacks the skill to attack and that is why the war ends with a bitter surprise - "Russia will not lose this war"

The Finnish soldiers interviewed by Yle consider the training of the Finnish Defense Forces to be the best in the world, especially against Russia. That's what the armed forces of Ukraine desperately need now.

KIOVA Now that the Russian armed forces have been floundering in Ukraine for a year, most Ukrainians and Finns believe in Ukraine's victory.

It is pure hope, says a high-ranking Finnish officer who has been following the war on the ground since last April.

In the officer's opinion, the Ukrainian troops do not know how to attack and their training is at the back, as if directly from the Soviet Union.

- Ukrainians imagine that they are good soldiers. However, it doesn't make you a skilled soldier to be afraid in the trenches for eight years. Education makes a soldier, an officer downloads.

Therefore, the Finnish officer has taken it upon himself to improve the training of Ukrainian soldiers, especially non-commissioned officers.

He does not want to appear in public with his own name or face. According to the officer, with his military rank, his actions in Ukraine could arouse anger even in Russia, although he is no longer in permanent service in Finland and does not represent Finland anyway.

Being anonymous, he can also talk about the situation with exceptional frankness.

His identity is known to Yle. Yle met him in January in the capital of Ukraine, Kyiv.

The officer is a dissident of the war, as many Western experts believe in Ukraine's war success. In the interview he gave to Yle, the officer demolishes several established concepts about war.

In the officer's opinion, the only thing that has saved Ukraine so far is that Russia has fallen into equally bad mistakes. However, Russia's mistakes should not be trifled with.

- The Russian troops have learned their lesson, but the Ukrainians haven't, the officer says.


Markus

[Skybird]

I assume this Finnish officer somehow is wrong, sees it from a point of view valid 10 years ago, before Crimea annexation. Since then, and especically in the 2-3 years before the Russians attacked last year, the Ukrainians have undertaken immense efforts to bring their doctrine and procedures up two NATO standards and in compliance with NATO standards (thats why they adapt so fast to Western equipment and its complex digital and electronics implications), and the current chief of staff, who was called in just one year before last years attack, again boosted the training of troops and officers in a dedicated bid to bring Ukraine away from Sowjet era standards. They did not fight by Sowjet procedures and doctrine against the invaders who still bring these Sowjet ways to action, but the Ukrainians know the doctrine of the invaders while using their own altered adaptation of Western methods to fight against then. The results from last year speak for themselves. It wa snot doctirne that biogged down the ukrianian initiave last year, but lacking weapons and ammo and the exchange of high losses. That Russian artillery is a big problem if you reduce distance and go into the infight - which you must if you push the offensive. you cannot advance without advancing. Ukrainian artillery has a range and preicison and reaciton time advantage, but if they move forward, two of these factors get somewhat equalised. And the Russians still fire 6-8 times more rounds than the ukrainians.



A grain of salt for this Fin's words. The Ukrainians maybe will lose, maybe not, but if they do, their combat skill will not have been the problem, but material and supply.

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KRkZj20AoiA

[Skybird]

Die Zeit has this reflection that leads beyond the Ukraine war:
----------------------------------

The West's days are numbered

Even if Russia does not win its brutal war of aggression, a new world order is likely to be in the end.

Author Albrecht Koschorke is a professor of literature at the University of Konstanz. In 2016, he published "Adolf Hitler's 'Mein Kampf'. On the Poetics of National Socialism."

By all accounts, the war in Ukraine will end in a triple defeat. Ukraine may succeed in preserving its sovereignty and pushing Russian troops out of the newly occupied territories thanks to Western arms assistance, but only at the price of unending misery and widespread devastation of the country. Russia will be militarily disgraced, politically isolated, economically weakened, and socially set back decades after the failed invasion. But the West will not triumph either. Apart from the consequential costs of its own sanctions, it has had to experience in the past year the extent to which its international power to shape events is dwindling. The measures to isolate Russia involve almost exclusively those states that are already counted as belonging to the West, notwithstanding the verbal condemnation of the war by the most recent UN resolution.

What is remarkable about this is that a global constellation reminiscent of the conditions of the Cold War has been re-established under completely different ideological auspices. The Soviet Union no longer exists, but it lives on as a phantom in Russian neo-imperialism and in its zone of influence in Central Asia. The West, expanded to include the former Eastern bloc states, has consolidated anew under U.S. leadership after having been all but declared dead. Most of the states that are neutral in the Ukraine conflict emerged from the non-aligned countries - with the difference that some of the developing countries of the past are now acting as global powers, both politically and economically: In the ranking of the twenty economically strongest countries, they occupy almost half of the positions and, adjusted for purchasing power, generate a larger gross domestic product than the states attributed to the West. In the coming years, they will achieve clear supremacy; while the USA will hold its own for the time being, Europe will fall back into second or third place. The continent, which was still the main theater during the Cold War, is moving to the margins of world affairs.

This geopolitical shift is reflected in the reactions to the Ukraine war. While it dominates the headlines here day after day, it is not equally high on the agenda in India, China, Indonesia, Latin America, Africa, the Arab states, and Turkey. There, other political-military flashpoints and, above all, the aftermath of failed Western interventions in the Middle East and Afghanistan are more prominent. Inflation and shortages of essential goods are attributed not only to the Russian incursion, but also to Western sanctions, whose successive implementation, moreover, has been inconsistent for selfish reasons. The fact that the West is once again entangled in a possibly hopeless military engagement is read in countries of the former Third World as a symptom of the approaching end of an international order dominated by the United States. In any case, the West's moral partisanship in Ukraine is met with the suspicion that more weight is attached to the suffering of whites than to the misery in more southern regions of the world.

The view that the West's days are numbered and that its supremacy must give way to a multipolar world order forms an ideological bridge between Russia and the Global South. As is well known, Putin even dresses the invasion of Ukraine in a narrative of rebellion against U.S.-European arrogance and domination. Paradoxically, following in the footsteps of Russian metropolitan propagandists from Nikolai Trubetzkoy to Alexander Dugin, he can thus give his neo-imperial ambitions an anti-colonialist veneer. Recent polls document a deepening global divide. They show that not only are the governments of many countries declaring themselves neutral in pact with Russia, but populations are often more sympathetic to the Russian side. The power of widespread anti-Western resentment is matched by tangible economic and geopolitical interests. The loss of prestige of Western democracies broadens the scope for other states to pursue their own priorities. This is most obvious in the case of China, which calls for a ceasefire in its so-called peace plan, but ultimately blames the U.S. for the Russian incursion - as a laughing third in the escalation of violence between the two superpowers of the 20th century.

Thus, despite the widespread concern about the war, the commitment to the Ukrainian cause does not increase the symbolic capital of the West at the global level. This hits the West's self-image hard, since it sees itself as the custodian of a free coexistence of democratic states, into which world history seemed to culminate only a generation ago. The imperial nostalgia that is attributed to the Russian power elites meets with its own kind of nostalgia on the other side, which is not yet fully aware of itself. It is directed toward the past future of liberalism as a world model and universal doctrine.

While Putin resorts to historical myths such as that of the "Russian world" to justify his brutal aggression, the West is trapped in its own mythologies. At the center of these myths is the expectation, renewed again and again since the European Enlightenment, that the progress of modernity will one day bring about the peaceful unification of all peoples. Free trade and international interdependence were supposed to make warlike conflicts impossible. This belief even survived the catastrophes of the 20th century and, in the formula of change through trade, still informed German policy toward Russia until the recent present. In the narrative of globalization as a seemingly inevitable process, it found its last bastion for the time being. From this point of view, geopolitically motivated struggles over individual territories represent an atavistic regression. To this day, therefore, it is incomprehensible from a Western liberal perspective what desire Putin and his followers want to fulfill by conquering the neighboring country.

Since its beginnings in the 1800s, liberalism has lived on the conviction that it has not only morality but also the future on its side. This made it an interventionist and expansive modernist ideology in humanitarian matters. "That a final war against international troublemakers - rogue states they are called today - could guarantee peace once and for all, a war to end all wars, is an old utopia of world political liberalism," wrote historian Jürgen Osterhammel already 20 years ago, at that time under the impression of the violent democratization of Iraq by the U.S. and Operation "Enduring Freedom" in Afghanistan. Such belligerent pacifications do not want to be selfish acts of violence, but more or less explicitly the execution of a historical mission. Accordingly, they are not justified by the interests they pursue, but as punitive actions against an aggressor, in the service of universally valid values.

To punish presupposes two things. First, authority - in the sense of a generalized recognition as a judicial authority. Second, power. Those who punish or even speak of not wanting to allow something to happen claim for themselves a sovereign position removed from the entanglements of the conflict to be settled. The great empires in the liberal spirit that have decisively determined the fate of the world over the past two hundred years-first the colonial powers of Great Britain and France, later the United States-have had both the military means to bring other territories under their control and, in many cases, the soft power necessary to stabilize a hegemony they have won. This included the promise to peoples within its sphere of influence that they would eventually be able to switch to the favored side of Western modernity; alternatively, the threat to deprive them of their future viability in the name of that same modernity.

Until the second half of the 20th century, liberalism had to share its vision of world historical development with other ideological promises. For a historical moment after the end of the Cold War, it looked as if the liberal value system had gained a monopoly position. In the meantime, its acceptance has deteriorated considerably. The guiding idea of a synchronization of democratization, the rule of law, a market economy, modernization and increased prosperity, which gave it a strong suggestive power, is dissolving. The past (and present) of colonial exploitation and oppression, which has been blunted in the West's self-perception, has moved imperiously to the forefront of the global debate. On top of that, the current state of many Western democracies does not present a good picture. Above all, it has become questionable what future for all they still have to promise.

All this weakens the West's soft power, while at the same time its political and economic supremacy is diminishing. Despite all this, the West retains its universalist credo, in which the Enlightenment's sense of mission still resonates - a fact that is clearer to non-Westerners. This creates a growing discrepancy in world politics, as the divided reaction to the war in Ukraine painfully demonstrates.
-------------


Have fun with your feminist foreign policy attempot, Annalena. Und lebte dein (Alp)traum auch nur einen Tag, so hat er doch gelebt! :yeah:

[Rockstar]

I still say Ukraine will win this war despite the statement from this Finnish Officer.

Start of article from Finnish Yle.



Markus

IMO I don’t see Russia starting any new advances into Ukraine. I think their goal now is to focus their resources securing the Donbas region in an attempt to save face after that sham vote.

Last package I saw we sent to Ukraine included bridging equipment. That means one thing, expect a Ukrainian offensive

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3ZutQI0nkX8

[Catfish]

Lavrov gives a stand up in India to a laughing crowd

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FzoSUgisV-I

[Commander Wallace]

IMO I don’t see Russia starting any new advances into Ukraine. I think their goal now is to focus their resources securing the Donbas region in an attempt to save face after that sham vote.

Last package I saw we sent to Ukraine included bridging equipment. That means one thing, expect a Ukrainian offensive




:agree:

[Jimbuna]

Lavrov gives a stand up in India to a laughing crowd

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FzoSUgisV-I

:haha:

[Dargo]

IMO I don’t see Russia starting any new advances into Ukraine. I think their goal now is to focus their resources securing the Donbas region in an attempt to save face after that sham vote.

Last package I saw we sent to Ukraine included bridging equipment. That means one thing, expect a Ukrainian offensiveLike Kyiv in 3 days this "offensive" (do not see any attacking on 1 or 2 places is no offensive) will fail Russia was and still is unprepared to do offensive warfare due to multi mistakes they made in the past and the widespread corruption will not help them it only worsened the problems. Hope Ukraine can force a break true somewhere the Russians least expect it to worsen the moral of the Russian soldiers do not see a retake of the whole lost territory this year maybe it is not possible next year, but a Russian downgrade in power is already a fact and that is the win for coming decades.

[Skybird]

More and more repporters reporting from the vicinity of Bachmut say they see the Ukrainians pulling out important, valuable units from Bachmut, specialists and equipment that are too valuable to loose them, while the remaining bridge in the West the Ukrainians could use for supplying or retreatinging was bombed by Russian missiles, rebuild by Ukrainian engineers, and then bombed again. Reports are mounting in numbers saying that Ukrainian units at Bachmut have started to move West.

It looks to me that Bachmut is close to being given up by the Ukrainians. And this with Rasputitia having begun.

[Catfish]

Russia's ruble has crashed 20% as Ukraine war costs pile up and energy revenue sinks

Russia's currency is trading at 75 rubles per US dollar, the lowest it has been in 10 months.
The 20% depreciation since December comes amid falling energy revenues and higher government spending.

Russia has been selling its reserves of Chinese yuan to help close budget deficits.
Amid a costly war and collapsing energy revenue, the Russian ruble has sunk 20% since December to its lowest in 10 months.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/russias-ruble-crashed-20-ukraine-173025011.html?soc_src=social-sh&soc_trk=tw&tsrc=twtr&guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly90LmNvLw&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAGMhPyca7GymhbPsN2IsBpyiu74n x2bT1VgDfngC2ix4aGA3Qm-WDYyoboOM-KRCruHLXxNag56aJmvUBJ641RLYrDWBaSz5jpipfo5z3kSDsCp hv4P1QkgtZMSU_4ypqVaprm68A18a7JkGQrsxkvzNg_8g6aGcu Jjpkj-0Qj94

[Dowly]

Re: The Finnish officer's interview on YLE

The guy really sounds like the stereotype of a Finnish officer. Officers in the FDF are career soldiers. They've made the decision to continue a career after their mandatory service, so they tend to be of a certain "type". :O:

Anyways, here's something another Finnish volunteer (a reservist) had to say about the state of things about a year ago when he did a AMA (Ask Me Anything) on Reddit:

Q: Have the commanders on your side been competent for the most part? Do you feel you are in good hands most of the time?

A: Depends. Younger commanders who have been at war since 2014 are very competent. Older and more senior commanders (who have been trained in the Soviet Union) in my own experience have generally been unqualified for modern warfare. And because of one of them, I almost lost my own life.

***

Q: How true are these stories about the condition/status/morale of Russian soldiers?

A: Morale is low and they have to use a lot of officers on the front lines to get the guys to do anything. Therefore, the most effective way to cripple a Russian unit is to just try to get the command vehicle etc out of play and the rest of the group/team/company is completely crippled. The lack of NCOs on either side of the fighting is shocking.


Let me know if there's interest and I can translate the entire AMA. :up:

[mapuc]

If I'm the only who wish to read entire AMA then you don't have to.

It was on a friends wall I saw the article which was in Swedish-With a link to yle in the article.

The response he got told me that they believed what this Finnish Officer said.

I wrote as a response.

NATO and/or EU will not accept a Russian takeover.

Markus

[Catfish]

I am also interested in the whole text :hmmm:

[mapuc]

Are these drones from Ukraine or from some anti-Putin group ?

Here I'm thinking on the one who was used in the attack on the air field in Belarus and this one:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ugn18bQKr_4&ab_channel=DenysDavydov

Markus

[vanjast]

Hint:
The Ukraine war ended 6 months ago. (Errr = Russia won)
All you're seeing is videos/news of what they want you to see.
To make you believe that this war is on-going.. a distraction of sorts.
Russia doesn't engage in limited artillery/drone warfare.. they engage in scorched earth warfare - think about it.
The Ukrainian military are working with the Russians.


Some reality..
Joe Biden was executed in 2018/19. You're seeing a double (hint Truman show)
I think Putin is also a double (he was part of the NWO youth group) - remains to be clarified.

Think about this...
How many old 'world leaders' and others have you seen lately... Clintons, Obummers etc..
It's as if they've just disappeared.
Afraid not.. they've been executed.. gitmo trials etc..

Like the convid scam.. the ukraine scam has fooled many once again.
The alternative news (and MSM) is full junk.. but they are tellingyou right to your face what's happening.. and you cannot see it.
:salute:

[mapuc]

They keep on popping up these conspiracy.

The one where the war ended 6 month ago...never heard of that one before.

Markus

[Skybird]

Somebody has looked into the sun lamp way too long.

[Commander Wallace]

Hint:
The Ukraine war ended 6 months ago. (Errr = Russia won)
All you're seeing is videos/news of what they want you to see.
To make you believe that this war is on-going.. a distraction of sorts.
Russia doesn't engage in limited artillery/drone warfare.. they engage in scorched earth warfare - think about it.
The Ukrainian military are working with the Russians.


Some reality..
Joe Biden was executed in 2018/19. You're seeing a double (hint Truman show)
I think Putin is also a double (he was part of the NWO youth group) - remains to be clarified.

Think about this...
How many old 'world leaders' and others have you seen lately... Clintons, Obummers etc..
It's as if they've just disappeared.
Afraid not.. they've been executed.. gitmo trials etc..

Like the convid scam.. the ukraine scam has fooled many once again.
The alternative news (and MSM) is full junk.. but they are tellingyou right to your face what's happening.. and you cannot see it.
:salute:




Yeah. Smoke another one.

[August]

Hint:
The Ukraine war ended 6 months ago. (Errr = Russia won)
All you're seeing is videos/news of what they want you to see.
To make you believe that this war is on-going.. a distraction of sorts.
Russia doesn't engage in limited artillery/drone warfare.. they engage in scorched earth warfare - think about it.
The Ukrainian military are working with the Russians.


Some reality..
Joe Biden was executed in 2018/19. You're seeing a double (hint Truman show)
I think Putin is also a double (he was part of the NWO youth group) - remains to be clarified.

Think about this...
How many old 'world leaders' and others have you seen lately... Clintons, Obummers etc..
It's as if they've just disappeared.
Afraid not.. they've been executed.. gitmo trials etc..

Like the convid scam.. the ukraine scam has fooled many once again.
The alternative news (and MSM) is full junk.. but they are tellingyou right to your face what's happening.. and you cannot see it.
:salute:


https://media.tenor.com/aMZ7m4CBO8UAAAAC/not-sure-if-serious-the-avengers.gif

[Dargo]

More and more repporters reporting from the vicinity of Bachmut say they see the Ukrainians pulling out important, valuable units from Bachmut, specialists and equipment that are too valuable to loose them, while the remaining bridge in the West the Ukrainians could use for supplying or retreatinging was bombed by Russian missiles, rebuild by Ukrainian engineers, and then bombed again. Reports are mounting in numbers saying that Ukrainian units at Bachmut have started to move West.

It looks to me that Bachmut is close to being given up by the Ukrainians. And this with Rasputitia having begun.Ukraine has destroyed 2 more bridges in Bakhmut. One linked east Bakhmut to the center, suggesting the eastern withdrawal is almost done. The other splits, what was one of the last roads into the city. Russian forces are just a few hundred meters from seizing the last paved supply route. https://twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1631813160763006977

[THE_MASK]

Hint:
The Ukraine war ended 6 months ago. (Errr = Russia won)
All you're seeing is videos/news of what they want you to see.
To make you believe that this war is on-going.. a distraction of sorts.
Russia doesn't engage in limited artillery/drone warfare.. they engage in scorched earth warfare - think about it.
The Ukrainian military are working with the Russians.


Some reality..
Joe Biden was executed in 2018/19. You're seeing a double (hint Truman show)
I think Putin is also a double (he was part of the NWO youth group) - remains to be clarified.

Think about this...
How many old 'world leaders' and others have you seen lately... Clintons, Obummers etc..
It's as if they've just disappeared.
Afraid not.. they've been executed.. gitmo trials etc..

Like the convid scam.. the ukraine scam has fooled many once again.
The alternative news (and MSM) is full junk.. but they are tellingyou right to your face what's happening.. and you cannot see it.
:salute:
Everyone is entitled to an opinion . Thats all this is .

[Buddahaid]

Stop feeding the troll.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=carENYJE7bg

[Jimbuna]

Street fighting in Bakhmut but Russia not in control - deputy mayor

By Laura Gozzi
BBC News

Russian and Ukrainian forces are fighting in the streets of Bakhmut - but Russia does not control the eastern city, its deputy mayor has said.

Oleksandr Marchenko also told the BBC the remaining 4,000 civilians are living in shelters without access to gas, electricity or water.

Mr Marchenko said "not a single building" had remained untouched and that the city is "almost destroyed",

Bakhmut has seen months of fighting, as Russia tries to take charge.

"There is fighting near the city and there are also street fights," Mr Marchenko said.

Taking the city would be a rare battlefield success in recent months for Russia.

But despite that, the city's strategic value has been questioned. Some experts say any Russian victory could be pyrrhic - that is, not worth the cost.

Thousands of Russian troops have died trying to take Bakhmut, which had a pre-war population of around 75,000. Ukrainian commanders estimate that Russia has lost seven times as many soldiers as they have.

Now, after fierce shelling, Russian forces and troops from the Wagner private army appear to have surrounded much of Bakhmut.

On Saturday, UK military intelligence said Russian advances in the northern suburbs have left the Ukraine-held section of the city vulnerable to Russian attacks on three sides.

Mr Marchenko accused the Russians of having "no goal" to save the city and that it wanted to commit "genocide of the Ukrainian people".

"Currently there is no communication in the city so the city is cut out, the bridges are destroyed and the tactics the Russians are using is the tactic of parched land," Mr Marchenko told the Today programme.

The Institute for the Study of War said the Ukrainian army had blown up bridges in Bakhmut, which might indicate they are "seeking to inhibit Russian movement" as they make a "controlled fighting withdrawal".

Earlier this week, Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky said that the situation in the area was becoming "more and more difficult" - although the Ukrainian military said it had repelled numerous attacks since Friday.

The commander of Ukraine's ground forces, Col Gen Oleksandr Syrskyi, visited Bakhmut on Friday for meetings with local commanders.

"I believe we shouldn't give any inch of our land to the enemy," Mr Marchenko said. "We should protect our land, we should protect our people and we should protect the businesses that are on this land.

"And the reason why we shouldn't give it to them is because it will be very hard to take it back, to regain the control after Russians capture it."

Russia claimed the Donbas town of Soledar, about 10km (6.2 miles) from Bakhmut, in January following a long battle with the Ukrainian forces.

Soledar, too, was reportedly reduced to a wasteland of flattened buildings and rubble by the time the Ukrainian army retreated.

On Friday, President Zelensky stressed that artillery and shells were needed to "stop Russia".

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the country's latest package included high-precision Himars artillery rockets and howitzers "which Ukraine is using so effectively".
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64846666

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dZqxBFfS5J0

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OyawHaGkL7A

[Skybird]

Neue Zürcher Zeitung:
-------------------------


Interview: "If you don't have grenades, you have to stop the enemy with people. This is very bloody": Yuri Butusov sees the fighting in Ukraine as part of a third world war

Ukraine's best-known military correspondent analyzes the fighting in Bachmut and the lack of competence of the government and army leadership. Resolute support of Kiev is clearly cheaper for the West than any alternative, he says. Yuri Butusov is Ukraine's best-known war reporter. The 46-year-old editor-in-chief of Censor.net, a portal financed largely by readers' contributions, spent many months on the front lines during the past year. Almost a quarter of a million people follow him on the messenger service Telegram. He sees himself, not without populist leanings, as the patriotic voice of the soldiers and the volunteers who support them. He does not shy away from harsh criticism of the army leadership and has repeatedly come into conflict with it.

Butusov made a name for himself as an investigative journalist at the turn of the millennium, and later provided journalistic support for the two democratic revolutions. After 2014, he was politically and journalistically active in the field of anti-corruption. In 2020, he also served as an advisor to the Ministry of Defense before withdrawing out of frustration with its lack of will to change.

Mr. Butuzov, you have compared the fighting for Bachmut with that of World War I. Has the war not changed in the last hundred years?

No, its nature has not changed. Even today there are people with assault rifles and hand grenades at the front. The greatest hero of this war is the infantryman who defends his homeland in the trenches. Nothing can replace him.

Doesn't that surprise you? The Russian army was considered to be highly modern, equipped with supposed superweapons.

The Russians were not ready for a long war of attrition. They did not expect us to resist. They are completely superior to us in practically all weapons categories and have accumulated large ammunition stockpiles over decades. But such a long front cannot be covered by any high-tech weapon in the world. Therefore, infantry warfare is inevitable.

Russia's war against Ukraine began in 2014, the full invasion more than a year ago. Many soldiers have been in the trenches for months. What does that do to their morale?

War makes stronger those who have strong character - and vice versa. Everything is black or white. In between runs the front, and people have to decide which side they are on. Ukrainians know that they are defending their homeland. Our motivation is higher than anyone would have expected. This allows us to beat back the attacks, even though Russia had been gearing up for this for a long time.

How well was Ukraine prepared for the war?

Poorly. It is clear: only an aggressor can really plan the war. Because he wants to attack. A peaceable country is never well prepared. But the state must have a system to quickly mobilize the population, train soldiers and make them ready to fight. Our state had hardly stockpiled ammunition, had not prepared a defense plan, and had not built sufficient fortifications.

In the days leading up to February 24, 2022, in the face of the imminent threat of war, one had the feeling that President Selensky was almost engaging in denial of reality.

In any democratic country, it is difficult to radically increase army spending during peacetime. But President Selensky told Ukrainians for three years that there would be no war - until the day before the Russian attack. That he did not prepare the population in any way was a huge mistake that is now having tragic consequences.

Has the administration corrected those mistakes since then?

The president makes a convincing appearance before the international community; he does it very well. But he doesn't understand anything about warfare or defense. This remains primitive and does not meet the requirements of modern war. Our commander-in-chief, unfortunately, is not very competent militarily. But Ukrainian society has a great capacity for self-organization. So incompetence is not a tragedy. It cannot stop us.

Does this incompetence also apply to the Ministry of Defense? The Ministry recently made headlines with alleged corruption in the purchase of food.

Such scandals are the result of poor organization. There is no professional leadership in the Ministry of Defense, partly because Minister Resnikov is fully absorbed with foreign policy. Meanwhile, at home, many issues remain unresolved. The logistics problems are solved by Ukrainian volunteers. Unfortunately, the Ukrainian army is in great need of reform.

Soviet traditions remain strong, despite a scant decade of cooperation with NATO?

People overestimate the modernization of our army. Reconstruction along NATO lines has only just begun, and the principles of combat are still Soviet. We have not professionalized NCO training, and there are no "after action reviews" in which lessons are systematically learned from missions. As a result, we often repeat mistakes.

Nevertheless, over 20,000 soldiers have been trained in Western countries since the war began. Does that change the mentality in the army?

An army is a hierarchical system. You have to change the mentality of the generals. And the politicians who lead them. The soldiers carry out orders. There is nothing wrong with their mentality. If people go to war under the prevailing conditions, they are already patriots. The decisive importance in the war is the commanders. They have to change.

What are the consequences if they do not?

Losses. If commanders don't get better at leadership, planning and intelligence, they lose people - and maybe the war. If you lose your forces, you become less effective. We have very large losses. But Ukrainians are more motivated and smarter than Russians. If people are motivated, you can quickly turn them into qualified soldiers - and commanders. The losses have less fatal consequences.

Nevertheless, the army is under a lot of pressure at the moment, especially in Bachmut.

In Bachmut we have a lot of good soldiers. They are doing everything they can not only to stop the Russian army, but to crush it. Bachmut is excellent for defensive fighting: there are very many positions from which you can effectively destroy the enemy. But to exploit this advantage, systematic decisions are needed at the leadership level. We need to get better tactically.
How.

The key to success is to inflict losses on the enemy that they cannot replace. You need to hit the best and most motivated units, the competent officers and NCOs. Without them, the army loses the ability to attack and fight. This can be as great as it is, but it achieves nothing if it has no people to lead units in battle.

The Russians suffered enormous losses in the first year of the war especially in this group.

That's why we broke through last fall in Balaklija and Isjum. The Russians had more tanks than we did, they had an air force, and they knew approximately where we would attack. But they were tactically unable to do anything about it. That's what happens when an army loses its fighting ability in heavy battles. In Kherson, on the other hand, the Russians were able to withdraw in an orderly fashion.

Since then, the front has largely stagnated. Have the Russians adapted to Ukrainian warfare?

Yes, already for the second time. They first tried blitzkrieg and failed at Kiev. Then they tried to destroy our best units in the Donbass with artillery. They suffered a defeat as we destroyed their huge ammunition depots near the front thanks to the Himars rocket launchers. Now Putin is using his soldiers as cannon fodder to break through our defenses in Bachmut.

The question of mobilizing enough soldiers preoccupies both sides. True, the Ukrainian government always stresses that it needs weapons from the West more urgently than troops. But these days, posters for recruitment are hanging all over the country.

In a war this big, there are never enough forces. We are fighting against a country of 140 million and an army of 1.5 million. We could only avoid mobilization if we had a superiority in ammunition. If you don't have grenades, you have to stop the enemy with people. That is very bloody.

Is the West's help enough?

The West always remains one step behind Putin, as it was behind Hitler in 1938. It is true that states have learned lessons from the mistakes of appeasement at that time: they support Ukraine with weapons and thus prevent Putin from advancing further toward Europe. And yet, there is a lack of understanding on this continent that the active phase of the third world war has begun in our country.

The third world war, really?

Yes, a world war in which Russia seeks to secure its sphere of influence through military force and nuclear blackmail. The fighting in Ukraine is long past regional. China and Iran are poised to change the balance of power in their regions of the world. Therefore, the West must not cut back its military aid. By doing so, it signaled to the revisionist powers that it cannot defend its interests. That would be fatal.

In Europe, people believe that the war must be limited to Ukraine in order to prevent escalation.

Yes, that is understandable. But by trying to avoid risks, politicians end up putting much more at risk. If the Russians conclude that sanctions will not stop their war and the West continues to trade with them, they will behave even more aggressively. Putin can threaten anyone he wants with nuclear war, including NATO. After all, there are enough unresolved territorial issues, for example with the Baltic states. The EU should therefore make it clear that it will not accept Russia using force to influence Europe.

But this is difficult to convey because Russia only threatens the EU indirectly.

Maybe. But the Russians are learning a lot from this war. They invest their money in those areas of the military that are successful. The West does not have a similarly large arms production. It remains technologically superior to Russia, especially in air power. But in drones and electronic warfare, the Russians and Chinese have developed technical solutions for large-scale warfare. Incidentally, Swiss ammunition for the German Gepard anti-aircraft tanks would be the best means of defense against drone attacks.

Switzerland is blocking this delivery with reference to neutrality and the War Material Act, which prohibits exports to belligerent states . . .

. . . but that has not stopped it from making such deliveries in the past. And it's not about Ukraine asking for aerial bombs. It's about defense. Not delivering increases costs for Switzerland.

Why?

If Russia threatens Europe, Switzerland will also have to upgrade its army at a cost of tens of billions of francs. It is much cheaper for the Europeans if each country delivers munitions to Ukraine for a few billion. Staying out of this war will not lead to peace. Russia will not become weaker. But the threat remains more controllable if it is stopped here.
Butusov believes that Putin also threatens Europe if he is not stopped in Ukraine.
Butusov believes Putin also threatens Europe if not stopped in Ukraine.
John Moore / Getty

How will the war unfold in the near future?

On the front lines, there will be a battle for the initiative, not big offensive operations, but a war of positions. Both sides will try to disintegrate the enemy's order of battle in order to create conditions for breakthroughs.

With what goal for Moscow?

The Russians want to capture the entire Donbass in 2023. After that, they aim to conquer all of Ukraine on the left bank of the Dnipro River and the south. They want to destroy Ukrainians as an enemy - and as an independent state.
----------------------------

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R4i3dbJ1m6k

[Skybird]

Neue Zürcher Zeitung:
-------------------------
Expansion of the zone of hardship - under the catastrophic effect of the Russian war of aggression, the political weights of Europe are shifting.

The Russian war of annihilation against Ukraine has created a new political dynamic in Europe. Berlin and Paris refuse to lead, the South stays away, but Poland, the Baltic states, the Scandinavians and the British take the reins.

A new political geography of Europe is emerging. One year after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the political balance in Europe is shifting. Whereas the euro crisis had opened up a front line between the south and the north and the migration crisis of 2015 had created a rift between Berlin and Brussels on the one hand and the eastern member states of the EU on the other, the continent is now experiencing a third spatial alliance formation in a short period of time: In the north and northeast of the continent, a group of states is forming that takes the Russian threat seriously and sees the war against Ukraine for what it is: a frontal assault by Russia on liberal Europe.

Since the beginning of the war against Ukraine, several states have emerged that are shaping security strategies in Europe along the lines of the United States: These are Poland and Finland within the EU and Great Britain outside the Union. Grouped around these states are other countries that share the analysis of Russian policy made in London, Warsaw, and Helsinki: These are Sweden, Norway, the Baltic countries, Denmark, the Netherlands, the Czech Republic, and Slovakia.

This group of states is currently united by a common security interest and also because of concerns about the inadequate political leadership by the largest states of the EU, Germany, France and also Italy, which is weaker in this field.

They are also united by deeds: they continuously supply Ukraine with weapons on a large scale, and they determine the European discussion on the expansion of military aid to Kiev, as recently the Netherlands, which advocates the handover of urgently needed fighter jets to Ukraine. Or the newly elected Czech president, who wants to provide Ukraine with everything it needs except nuclear weapons.

A year after the Russian invasion, it has become clear that Berlin and Paris are struggling to move beyond political rhetoric and take a firm stand against Russia as a fundamental threat to the continent. The slogan of the government in Berlin that it wants to prevent a defeat of Ukraine must be taken seriously here. Russia must not be humiliated under any circumstances, they say in Paris. In the final analysis, Berlin and Paris are unable to break away from their decades-long policy toward Russia, either in the idea that Europe could be shaped without Russia or in the lucrative business ties, many of which have still not been cut.

The party-political disputes in Berlin over the extent of support for Ukraine have unsettled all those states that feel threatened by Russia. Whether Germany can really be relied upon in an emergency remains questionable in view of the state of the Bundeswehr, but also the widespread combination of anti-Americanism, Russophilia and pacifism.

Beyond the German debate, hardly anyone will follow the German government's reading of the junket between the simultaneous pledge of German and American tanks as a display of the chancellor's statesmanship. Should further Russian offensives lead to Ukrainian defeats, it would become clear that the denial of heavy weapons requested by Ukraine was the deliberate omission of the German government. What is troubling is the lack of coordination between Paris and Berlin and the inability of the two governments to demonstrate real unity even in symbolic acts such as the 60th anniversary celebration of the Élysée Treaty.

Ukraine, which is struggling for survival, is the victim of Franco-German weakness. It and all of Russia's neighbors must also take note of the fact that Italy and Spain accept the war in the east as the basic noise of European policy and themselves provide military assistance only in homeopathic doses.

The further west and south a country is, the less the Russian threat is considered to be. Added to this are countries such as openly Russia-friendly Hungary or Austria, which sends out easily misunderstood signals and is not unjustly regarded by Russia's neighbors as an insecure cantonist.

While in Western Europe and in the German-speaking countries it is readily believed that finely tuned survival aid to Ukraine is sufficient to limit the war spatially, numerous other states follow a different interpretation of Russian aggression: Most of them have a painful experience with their Russian neighbor, either because they were occupied by the Soviet Union for decades like the Baltic states, fought for their survival against the Red Army like Finland, were vassals of Moscow like Poland and the Czech Republic, had to put up with crimes like the shooting down of a Malaysia Airlines passenger plane by pro-Russian militias like the Netherlands, or see elementary state interests threatened by Moscow like Sweden and Norway despite all efforts to be good neighbors.

Finally, Great Britain follows the centuries-old logic of its foreign policy that its security is not defended at the English Channel, but on the continent, within the framework of an alliance structured by London. In the case of the aforementioned states, membership in the EU and NATO overlap only to a limited extent, since Norway and Great Britain are not members of the Union, and Sweden and Finland are not (yet) members of NATO.

The European Union is strongly built around the Berlin-Paris axis, and both governments have, if not creative power, then considerable preventive power. It is not easy to build alliances around these two states, and it would be better if such a case did not arise at all. But the hesitation and low reliability of Paris and Berlin force all those countries to adopt an active policy that must protect their security vis-à-vis Russia for sheer reasons of state.

Thus, Finland stepped out of its role as a silent partner, applied for NATO membership and began to act as a foreign policy actor in the wider Baltic Sea region. In fact, Finland, which has the largest army in the Baltic and Scandinavia with very good equipment and has been preparing extensively for a Russian attack for years, is also a protective power of the northern Baltic. This is far more than the modest German troop presence in the region. The Finns also contrast in their mental preparedness with the testy debating German society, which has little sustainability in terms of defense policy.

The Baltic states know that their existence is threatened: This explains the enormous efforts of Estonia, for example, to supply Ukraine with armaments, as well as the uncompromising stance of Latvia and Lithuania, which, unlike parts of the German public, know that Russian expansion can fundamentally endanger the existence of entire societies.

Poland, which had been divided four times by Prussia/Germany and Russia between 1772 and 1939, realigned its previously tense relationship with Ukraine after 1989: Without a stable and democratic Ukraine, there is no sustainable security for Poland. And Ukraine's stability has been increasingly threatened by one country for three decades, and that is Russia. The disputes about constitutionally questionable measures of the national-conservative government in Warsaw with the European Commission and also with Berlin have tied up many forces and have not served Poland's position.

However, distrust of the German government and especially of the SPD is justified in Poland, both across party lines and in terms of content. It should therefore come as no surprise that Poland is consistently aligning itself with the U.S. in terms of security policy and is currently also entering into arms policy partnerships outside Europe, such as with South Korea, where Poland purchased armaments for around six billion dollars in the summer of 2022 and initiated a defense cooperation whose volume is probably more than twice as large.

As the most populous country in the east of the EU and a traditional middle power in the region, Poland is called upon to take the lead. The coordination with the Baltic states is particularly close, which also has a long history. The old rivals in the Baltic, Sweden and Poland, now find themselves on the same side for the first time, and the accession of Sweden and Finland, which will take place soon or in the medium term, will transform the Baltic into an almost closed NATO area.

Europe's security depends heavily on the ability of the aforementioned states to quickly come together as an association of interests capable of acting in close coordination with the United States. And this is urgently needed: The military situation in Ukraine is serious. The suffering of the civilian population, which is enduring under Russia's bombing terror, is often forgotten. Russia is apparently preparing for a full-scale attack. It is the European Northeast that is standing together to oppose it. And it would be good if Paris and Berlin followed its lead.

The author Oliver Jens Schmitt is a professor of Eastern European history at the University of Vienna.
----------------------

[Skybird]

Rheinmetall is in negotiations with Kyiv to build a tank factory inside ukraine with the capacity to build 400 KF51 Panther MBTs per year. Rheinmetall says they hope for a decision within the next 2 months.

It was not specified whether they want to build it with the war still raging, or after a possible end of the war. In case of the first I am wondering what they think why Russia would not paint a big fat crosshair onto the plant like on the many others of the Ukrainian arms industry that had been bombed into oblivion meanwhile.

Maybe its all a marketing gag by Rheinmetall to promote their new tank model. Rheinmetall is locked in kind of an infight with KMW who produces the Leopard-2. That RM offers a new tank on chassis basis of the Leopard-2 while partnering with KMW in producing the Leo-2A6/A7 is taken not well by KMW.

[Jimbuna]

Scholz told Biden that Germany would support Ukraine as long as needed

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said during a meeting at the White House with US President Joseph Biden that Germany will support Ukraine as long as necessary

This is reported by CNN, Censor.NET informs.

"This is a very, very important year because of the very dangerous threat to the world that comes from Russia invading Ukraine, and it is very important that we acted together, that we organized in step, and that we made it possible that we could give the necessary support Ukraine during all this time," said Scholz at the meeting on Friday.

In turn, Biden noted that Scholz's support for Ukraine "was of great importance" during the war.

"As NATO allies, we are making the alliance stronger and more capable," the American leader added. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3403617

Russia has no intention of sincerely negotiating peace with Ukraine - Canadian intelligence


Russia’s actions directly contradict its statements about its alleged openness to peace talks with Ukraine.

As Censor.NET informs, this is stated in the message of the intelligence department of the Armed Forces of Canada on Twitter.

"Russia regularly states that it is open to negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. According to our analysis, Russia continues to demonstrate commitment to its maximalist military goals, which contradicts its declared openness to a negotiated settlement of the conflict," Canadian intelligence said.

According to its representatives, a clear example of this is Russia's insistence on preserving the four temporarily occupied regions of Ukraine as part of the Russian Federation as a prerequisite for a peace agreement.

"Russia knows that its conditions are unacceptable for Ukraine, which proves Russia's reluctance to sincerely negotiate a peace agreement," the Canadian Armed Forces noted. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3403635

Russia must pay for aggression against Ukraine, - von der Leyen said

Russia and its leadership must be held accountable for the crimes committed in Ukraine.

This is stated in the statement of the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, on the establishment of the International Center for Prosecution of Crimes of Aggression against Ukraine, Censor.NET reports with reference to Interfax-Ukraine.

"Russia's invasion has brought untold suffering to Ukraine... More and more evidence is emerging of direct attacks on the civilian population, as well as on energy and other infrastructure facilities. Russian forces are known to have used torture, ill-treatment, sexual violence and executions without due process. Even children are not spared. Russia must be held accountable for these heinous crimes. Putin must be held accountable. We must do everything in our power to bring those responsible to justice," the statement said.

According to von der Leyen, the EU supports the role of the International Criminal Court. "We also believe that a special tribunal is needed to prosecute Russia for the crime of aggression. And I am proud that at this conference, as a first step, you will sign an agreement to establish an International Center for the Prosecution of the Crime of Aggression in The Hague. The European Union, together with our partners, will continue to work to make Russia pay," she said.

"We are united in the fight for justice for Ukraine," the head of the European Commission emphasized. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3403662

[Jimbuna]

Total combat losses of Russian Federation since beginning of war - about 152,190 people (+820 per day), 302 planes, 3,409 tanks, 2,414 artillery systems, 6,683 armored vehicles. INFOGRAPHICS

As of the morning of March 4, 2023, the losses of the Russian occupiers are approximately 152,190 people.

This is reported by Censor.NET with reference to the press center of the General Staff.

As noted, the total combat losses of the enemy from 24.02.22 to 03.04.23 are approximately:

personnel - about 152,190 (+820) people were eliminated,
tanks - 3409 (+4) units,
armored combat vehicles - 6683 (+10) units,
artillery systems - 2414 (+12) units,
MLRS - 487 (+3) units,
air defense equipment - 247 (+0) units,
aircraft - 302 (+1) units,
helicopters - 289 (+0) units,
UAVs of operational-tactical level - 2066 (+5),
cruise missiles - 873 (+0),
ships/boats - 18 (+0) units,
automotive equipment and tank trucks - 5289 (+8) units,
special equipment - 230 (+0). Source: https://censor.net/en/n3403626

Russian Federation lost more than 200,000 people. 1,800 officers were killed and wounded, - NATO commander in Europe, Kavoli

Christopher Cavoli, NATO’s commander-in-chief in Europe, said that Russia had lost more than 200,000 people killed and wounded in Ukraine.

As Censor.NET informs with reference to Spiegel, Cavoli said this at the traditional Matiae meal at the Hamburg Town Hall.

According to him, after the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, NATO needs to adapt to the new reality.

He noted that the scale of the war against Ukraine is incredible, and the Russians have lost more than 2,000 main battle tanks.

Cavoli also noted that more than 200,000 people were killed or wounded, including more than 1,800 officers.

Also, as the general stated, the Russian army produces more than 23,000 artillery shells per day.

"If somebody comes with a tank, you have to have a tank too. But one of the lessons of the Cold War is that the accuracy of the weapon is what counts. In addition, the production capacity of the defense industry is important. The war will be won by the one who can produce the fastest," he said. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3403648

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CBATN0zDrrc

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e1TItI0QDWE

[Catfish]

^ Please :rotfl2:

[Catfish]

Wagner troops ‘will be shot’ if they retreat in Bakhmut | Jerome Starkey

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s36BTpQmVk0

[Dargo]

The Russian human rights group http://Gulagu.net published another letter from "Wind of Change," their source in the Russian security apparatus, with additional information about the Bryansk incident, shedding light on what may have happened and what to expect next. In short, the Kremlin needs to rile up an apathetic Russian public, which supports the war against Ukraine as long as it has no impact on their lives. To do this, the Kremlin needs to show that Ukraine is a terrorist entity that is killing Russian civilians on Russian soil. It's worth noting that Russians don't perceive casualties in occupied territories that the Kremlin claims are now part of Russia as a dangerous development because they don't perceive those territories as being actually Russian.

Realizing this, the Kremlin planned a false flag operation involving armed "Ukrainians" who would attack and kill innocent Russian civilians, including children and the elderly, in Bryansk. They would also spread "extremist" propaganda leaflets. The Kremlin was also hoping to sway Western public opinion against Ukraine in the hope that it would stop or slow down military aid to Kyiv. To do this, the false flag operation would have to be particularly gruesome so that it would become the new Bucha, but now on Russian soil. An important element of the false flag operation would be the elimination of the "Ukrainian terrorists" by valiant Russian security services. The bodies of the dead "terrorists" would be shown on TV, and the bodies (likely Ukrainians KIA or dead POWs) were prepared in advance. The false flag operation was prepared, and the Russian media was told exactly what to say once the "Ukrainians" attacked. But just before the operation was launched, something completely unexpected happened: A group of armed Russian citizens entered Bryansk from Ukraine.

This group of armed Russians, calling themselves the Russian Volunteer Corps, recorded a video on Russian soil, calling for the liberation of Russia from Putin's regime and said that they are not targeting civilians. Then, just as quickly as they appeared, they disappeared. They exposed the vulnerability of Russia's border & undermined the Kremlin's false flag operation. The Russian media jumped into action as it had been instructed, but they reported about an operation that didn't happen/failed because Russian security forces were caught off guard. Perhaps, most importantly, someone has access to the Kremlin's secret plans because the timing of the Russian Volunteer Corps raid could not have been a coincidence. According to "Wind of Change," the Russian security services continue to be embarrassingly incompetent.

Moscow's intentions are reminiscent of the apartment bombings of 1999, when Russian security services killed Russian civilians but blamed it on Chechen militants, helping bring Putin to power. Russian historians and FSB agent Alexander Litvinenko exposed the state's culpability. Not surprisingly, Putin's regime had Litvinenko poisoned and killed in London in 2006. Others who exposed the Russian security apparatus were also targeted. The modus operandi of the Russian state has not changed. Even if this false flag operation has failed, the Kremlin will almost certainly try again. In a war that he cannot win, Putin may only be able to "escalate to deescalate", not against the West, but against his own people.

https://twitter.com/StateOfUkraine/status/1632161473643290631

[Skybird]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fqb9zAIWcAEmhUp?format=jpg&name=small

[Reece]

:har::har:

[Jimbuna]

Top Putin aid says Ukraine war is being 'run from London' and UK is the 'main evil'

A top Putin aide has accused London of running the war in Ukraine during a "crazed TV rant." Igor Korotchenko, a retired Colonel and editor-in-chief of Russia’s National Defence magazine, said the UK is "the main evil" as he appeared on a nightly show on Russia's major TV channel today (Saturday, March 4).

Joining the show, which is hosted by pro-Putin allies Andrey Gurulev and Olga Skabeyeva, Korotchenko told the Russia 1 channel the UK is "now the main evil" in the West. Calling for diplomatic ties between Russia and the UK to be severed, the ex-army chief accused the UK of supporting "Ukrainian sabotage-terrorism groups," the MailOnline reports.

"The Anglo-Saxon brain is in London," raged Korotchenko, as he went on to accuse London of "unleashing new terrorist activity in Russia," and said the UK has been "carrying out acts of sabotage" since the conclusion of World War II.

During what has been described as a 'spiralling monologue' and a 'cascading spout of Russian propaganda', The retired colonel called on Russia to publicly expel the British Ambassador, Dame Deborah Bronnert, from the country on camera. He also said Russia should recall the Russian ambassador from the UK.

Korotchenko, speaking directly to the camera, said: "Russian's intelligence agencies are absolutely sure and have operationally confirmed information showing that the most direct support in training Ukrainian sabotage-terrorism groups is being provided by the UK....They are now the main evil!"

The Putin ally went on: "We should understand entirely clearly that, yes, there's the USA, but the Anglo-Saxon brain is in London. The UK might not have the same capabilities, either financial or operational, which the USA has but nonetheless the ideological component in the unleashing of new terrorist activity in Russia comes from London."

Describing how the UK has been carrying out such acts of "sabotage" since WWII, he added the British are: "literally egging on the Ukrainian Defence Ministry's main intelligence directorate and the security service of Ukraine to commit such acts of sabotage."

The Kremlin mouthpiece accused British intelligence including M16 of "working actively in this same area," as well as the SAS. He called on Moscow to "weaken MI6's intelligence capabilities as much as possible by 'crushing and expelling in full MI6's undercover diplomatic presence, including the deep-cover positions." He then claimed Russia already knew the identities of those undercover.

Concluding his rant, Korotchenko said Russia should reduce the number of British diplomats in the country to a maximum of "10 or 12," and said: "We must act absolutely uncompromisingly, and not pay attention to the possible howls and reaction from our adversary."

Just over a year ago, on February 24, 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine in a major escalation of the Russo-Ukrainian War, which began in 2014. The violence has caused tens of thousands of deaths on both sides, internally displaced nearly seven million people, and forced over six million to flee to neighbouring countries, instigating Europe's largest refugee crisis since World War II.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/top-putin-aid-says-ukraine-war-is-being-run-from-london-and-uk-is-the-main-evil/ar-AA18dMku?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=02ef6d1c2587482f809d86db8d41d4df&ei=11

[Jimbuna]

Ukraine to get 'double' the number of Challenger 2 tanks than Britain originally promised

Ukraine is set to receive 'double' the number of Challenger 2 tanks than Britain originally promised to send, according to the Ukrainian ambassador to the UK.

Vadym Prystaiko claimed the UK will double the original 14 tanks pledged to aid Ukraine's fight against Russia following Presidnt Zelensky's visit in February.

The ambassador's comments were made during an interview with the European broadcaster Radio Liberty.

Prystaiko said: '14 tanks were promised to us and as a result of President Zelensky's visit, it was agreed that this number will double'.

Describing the moment Britain originally promised to send the tanks, he called it a 'breakthrough' as it was 'necessary to move the reluctance of all other allies'.

'At this time, the British were trying to convince all the other allies that there were two options: either the UK proceeds with this announcement alone and makes this breach that everyone else has to go into, or let's do this very important step all together as one front, as NATO,' the ambassador said.

'The UK was successful this time. I think the same process is happening now with fighter jets.'

Prystaiko also explained that the UK has offered to more than double military training efforts throughout 2023 as the war in Ukraine continues.

He alleged as well that Britain will offer 30 heavy guns to the frontline.

The Ministry of Defence said that there are currently no plans to increase the number of tanks over the agreed number of 14 although the defence secretary previously said that Britain was open to extending it.

Last month, President Zelensky visited the UK and thanked Rishi Sunak and the people of Britain for their 'steadfast support' in Ukraine's fight against Russian forces.

Zelensky said Britain's support during tough times was 'invaluable' as he marked one year since Vladimir Putin launched his invasion of Ukraine.

As well as supplying Ukraine with tanks, Britain also announced a new package of sanctions that included imposing an export ban on every piece of equipment Russia has been found using on the battlefield.

Despite being initially hesitant, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz agreed in January to send their country's Leopard-2 tanks and 'Marder' Infantry Fighting Vehicles to Ukraine.

That decision came after the United States also agreed to send 31 Abrams M1A2 tanks to Ukraine.

This will be the first time since World War II that Germany has sent weapons to a war zone.

Earlier this month it was revealed the number of Russian losses passed 150,000 according to the latest figures released by Kyiv.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/ukraine-to-get-double-the-number-of-challenger-2-tanks-than-britain-originally-promised/ar-AA18e14r?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=a806b01f619e464da98f1f53f0003973&ei=57

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tvhA4_C9aYk

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9w1lVRGvt4U

[Dargo]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fqb9zAIWcAEmhUp?format=jpg&name=smallWe should not underestimate the catastrophic impact of Russia's early losses after the invasion last year, due to a strategy that Putin and his security services imposed without preparation. Many of Russia's best forces were wasted in the first weeks of the war. The second reason is continued political interference. Putin has still not learned the lesson Stalin taught: you have to let the generals be generals. Already three times, the leadership of the offensive has been replaced. Even the Chief of Staff, Gerasimov, is now commander of the United Forces in Ukraine in name only. In practice, his control is very limited over Wagner troops, over the National Guard, over the Chechen Kadyrovskis, militias from remote republics. Therefore, the impression sometimes arises that no one in Moscow is really in charge on Ukraine. There is a clear lack of a coherent vision for this war. The Russian supreme command is fighting this war with one hand tied behind its back. We are now seeing how the chaos of the Putin political system is now also showing itself on the battlefield.

[Skybird]

Prigozhin has threatened to withdraw all Wagners from Bachmut if he does not get more support and material from the Russian army. He said that a retreat by his forces would open a wide open lane for the Ukrainians to the coast, and that this would mean the beginning of the end, with the Russian front collapsing and Crimea getting lost.

There were growing tensions between Putin and Prigozhin in the past already, leading to Putin's army cutting Wagner short of supplies. He has become an increasingly dangerous and daring rival. But I wonder if now he maybe has made one step too far. I know that if I were Putin I would think it would be high time to get rid of him - forever.

Kadyrow also seems to not do well, he has called in several medical specialists.

It would be two funerals worth to be celebrated with crimsect for sure. :D

[Dowly]

Here's the Ask Me Anything of a Finnish reservist who volunteered in Ukraine. It was posted in April of 2022.


***


I have been in Ukraine as a volunteer fighter since the beginning of the war and now on a couple of days holiday and ready to answer questions here if anyone has any! As long as I don't risk my own or anyone else's safety.

https://i.imgur.com/qKKge9e.jpeg

***

Q: What's the vibe? What kind of salary do you get there?

A: Depends on who you are under, in unofficial units there is no pay, in official units under the Ukrainian army the pay is around 8000-9000 hvrynia (~280€) per month and double that if you are in the front line. Nobody is here for the money.

***

Q: Is this the first time you have been confronted with life and death? Has the experience changed your attitude towards them?

A: I had a job before this trip where there were some rough spots, but nothing like dodging missiles and indirect fire. Haven't had time to think about it further and will probably leave that thinking there for when I get home sometime.

***

Q: What is your working language there? Do you speak Russian or Ukrainian?

A: The working language at the rear and in barracks life is English, depending on the type of unit. In combat situations, the language is usually Ukrainian, you have to know at least the orders and so on. Otherwise there will be problems because most of the guys don't speak English at all or very poorly.

***

Q: Have you got to shoot in a real situation? Most people never even get to shoot at the enemy.

A: I am on leave from the fighting in Kharkov. There's been some shooting but you're right, it's mostly indirect fire and air strikes that you have to fear the most these days. Modern warfare sucks in that sense.

***

Q: Are you directly subordinate to the Ukrainian Armed Forces?

A: In the old unit yes, in the new one no.
A2: Sorry, I misread the question. I am still under the armed forces but not the army.

***

Q: Do you leave the phones and other electronics at the base when you go to the front or to reconnoitre, so that Russia doesn't track the phones and bomb where the thickest bunch is?

A: In an operational unit, yes, but I've seen those situations where guys are literally using their phones a couple of miles off the line because they want to access Netflix. But of course the risk is lower if you have a Ukrainian SIM card and a phone purchased from Ukraine.

***

Q: You probably can't be too specific, but what kind of experience did you have when you got there to fight? Just having been in the army was hardly enough?

A: I came in at the beginning of the war and they were even giving guns to people who had no military training whatsoever. Most of them, of course, have already gone home. The first direct missile/artillery/etc. usually drove them away. I myself was just a basic reservist when I came here.

***

Q: How true are these stories about the condition/status/morale of Russian soldiers?

A: Morale is low and they have to use a lot of officers on the front lines to get the guys to do anything. Therefore the most effective way to cripple a Russian unit is to just try to get the command vehicle etc out of play and the rest of the group/team/company is completely crippled. The lack of NCOs on either side of the fighting is shocking.

***

Q: Question deleted, but from reading comments it must've been about how war hungry someone must be to volunteer.

A: In fact I was a total pacifist and hippy before Putin invaded Ukraine, the deaths of loved ones there changed that a bit.

***

Q: How do Ukrainians in general feel about this war? Is a large part of it ready to fight, and what kind of morale is there?

A: Most of them are ready to fight and the problem is even that there are too many volunteers (Ukrainians) and not enough weapons for them and morale is very good. Comparable to our winter war. The whole country is united against Russia at least for the time being.

***

Q: In your experience, how does the performance and operation of the Ukrainian army compare or differ from the Finnish Defence Forces?

A: It was only after I came here that I really started to appreciate the quality of the Finnish Defence Forces. It's like the difference between night and day. I could even argue that the Finnish Defence Forces are one of the most cost-effective armies right after the Israelis.

***

Q: The picture shows a 5.56 m4, how does it compare to the rk? How about ammunition, when you can't use all the ammunition you can find everywhere? And where did you even get one?

A: I liked the rk better. The M4 feels a bit like an airsoft gun and you feel like you have to clean it twice a day even if you're just carrying it around. And there must be guns from 20+ countries in this country at the moment. You can find everything.

Q: Finland has sent some rifles to Ukraine, so if you come across a rk, would you switch to it?

A: I dare not say with full certainty as I have not seen it myself, but the rifles that Finland has sent here are old folding Ak's that Finland bought in large quantities from China and East Germany. Not RK's.

Q: Do soldiers in Ukraine's own army get to choose the weapon of their choice, or are these 20 countries' weapons reserved for foreign fighters, while their own army fights with its own equipment?

A: Their own army is trained in ak-based so they use them, they have no knowledge or skill in western weapons, the special forces of course are different. Also because of logistics.

***

Q: Have you come across any other Finns?

A: Yes.

Q: Can you take a wild guess as to how many Finns are fighting in Ukraine atm?

A: I can't give more precise figures but relative to population, Finland is over-represented here. If that tells you anything.

***

Q: Which Finnish brigade did you serve in as a conscript and what was your mission?

A: The sharp-eyed will probably notice the patch of the Guard Jaeger Regiment in the picture.

***

Q: What kind of equipment does the basic fighter have? Do most of the people you see have armor plates on their vests?

A: I have some mixed equipment, my own and that given to me by the Ukrainians. I work as a medic so I decided to choose a lighter vest for myself. Level 4 plates, of course.
A2: Yes. As a medic. I don't carry any symbols because after snipers and MG men, we're the first thing the enemy targets.

***

Q: Do they really put these volunteers to the front lines, or is it mainly supply work or something like that?

A: Yes, they do. The Ukranians have such a shortage of professional soldiers that even Finnish reservists are in high demand. Of course, there are also a lot of service personnel. According to ability. Nobody is forced into something they don't want.

***

Q: What food do you eat?

A: I've eaten quite a lot of chicken porridge. A surprisingly functional combination. Now, though, I'm on leave, devouring burgers with both hands.

Q: How does the leave policy work?

A: It depends entirely on the unit you are in. It's pointless to expect to go on leave every weekend. Of course, if there's an acute emergency in Finland that needs to be dealt with, you can usually arrange it. Of course, depending a bit on whether the unit is on the line or in the rear at the time. I've been here since the first week and this is my first real leave.

***

Q: How close have you been to the worst gunfire/air strikes, or what has been the worst situation you have faced so far?

A: The most direct and worst situation was being almost surrounded because of an incompetent commander. At the time I was pretty sure that at best I would spend the next 10 years in a Russian prison accused of being a terrorist and at worst buried in the Ukrainian steppes. But all's well that ends well, with a bit of luck I survived.

Q: Have the commanders on your side been competent for the most part? Do you feel you are in good hands most of the time?

A: Depends. Younger commanders who have been fighting since 2014 are very competent. Older and more senior commanders (those with Soviet training) in my own experience have generally been incompetent in modern warfare. And because of one of them, I almost lost my own life.

***

Q: How is the morale of Ukrainian troops on the front line? Surely we are still winning and perhaps even getting a little revenge? Slava Ukraini!

A: Heroyam slava! The war is currently going more for the Ukrainians than for the Russians. The Ukrainians don't want revenge, they just want the Russians to go away.

***

Q: Are you part of a group of other foreigners, or how have you been divided up?

A: Currently more Ukrainians than foreigners. In the previous unit only officers were Ukrainian.

***

Q: Based on your experience, can you say how good a chance Finland would have of succeeding in defence against Russia?

A: Very good. If Finland received the kind of equipment support that Ukraine has received, not a single Russian unit would be operational within Finland's borders within a couple of weeks of the war starting.

***

Q: Hats off to you! What kind of conversations did you have with your loved ones and how did they react to you leaving?

A: They were not very happy but they understood the reasons. They're just worried, of course.

***

Q: How would you compare the skill level of a Finnish conscript to Ukrainians and other foreign fighters in general?

A: Finnish conscript training goes a long way here and Finnish reservists are more or less wanted in any unit. Americans and other volunteers from NATO countries don't really know how to fight in a war where they don't have complete air superiority. Especially at the beginning of the war there were a lot of them but after the first missile strikes and air strikes most of them went home. The Finnish soldier on the other hand has the assumption that the enemy has air superiority and is trained accordingly.

***

Q: It is admirable that you are willing to risk your life and mental well-being for another country. But the flip side of the coin is interesting:

How did reality match preconceived notions of what modern warfare is?

What is the most horrific event you have encountered? How does your head hold up; do things come to you in dreams, is there any initial PTSD?

Would you leave again knowing what you know now?

A: Reality did not meet expectations at all, the films give a bit of a false picture of it. The first contact with the enemy is not a cinematic shootout where you see the enemy and get clear hits etc. But complete chaos for 5-60min, depending on how long it lasts where you might fire a couple of hundred rounds without even seeing the enemy clearly.

And the dreams haven't come yet but I've already noticed a little PSTD from the boys. Certain noises that sound too much like a falling missile or grenade always make me jump, whether it's just someone slamming the van door too hard or even closing the fireplace hatch too hard. I don't like sleeping inside four walls and I don't like sleeping without a rifle always at hand.

Q: How will you deal with your PTSD after the war?

A: With universal health care, of course? A joke a joke. But then, I hope there won't be a need, but if there is, I've already got the same contacts ready for me as the rest of the Finns here. No one is left to wrestle with that alone.

***

Q: Is there honestly any hope of recapturing territory in the long term? Or is it more a case of defending to the end until Russia gets fed up?

A: There is every chance. Ukraine is getting stronger day by day while Russia is getting weaker.

***

Q: They say don't come unless you have previous real combat experience. Is this true?

A: Yes. Changed to stricter criteria. Especially in the legion. But if you really want to get in, there's always some group that will take you. I wouldn't recommend it though.

***

Q: I read somewhere that a Finnish reserve lieutenant had ended up as a rank and file soldier in Ukraine. What military ranks do foreign fighters serve under?

A: I know the gentleman well. Soldiers all, but of course the unofficial roles are different.

Q: So everyone serves with the military rank of a soldier, and the military rank of their own country is not taken into account or used?

A: Yes. Everyone is officially on the payroll as a soldier. But if you're a captain in your own army, you won't be serving long as a grunt.

***

Q: How's the food and water situation?

A: Soldiers are always hungry, but no more so than in other armies. Peace or war. Pretty much the food side is the only one that's worked here without major problems.

***

Q: Can volunteering give you Ukrainian citizenship if you wish?

A: Yes. After the war, it's pretty much automatically granted, except that you can't have dual citizenship in Ukraine so I'd have to give up my Finnish citizenship.

***

Q: Why are you there? Do you feel you are also defending me as a Finn against the Russian threat, or are you there mainly to help Ukraine?

Do you hate Russia, Putin, or are you there mainly for adrenaline kicks?

A: Both. The main reason for coming here was the suffering of the Ukranians' loved ones here and the second main reason is that I'd rather fight here now than in Finland in a few years if Putin is not stopped now.

Adrenaline junkies were indeed the first to go home when something dropped near. You have to believe in something bigger to want to be here after that. You can get those kicks in much easier ways.

***

Q: Does it matter what kind of training you have received in the FDF, whether Ukraine will take you in? There was a story in Finland about these people who tried to go, but were turned away. Do you know more about the selection process?

A: There was no selection process at the beginning and they didn't even look at my service record that I brought with me. It depended a lot on the impression you made on the local commander you first reported to. That is, by face value. Personally, I made a good impression by bringing lots of tourniquets and other first aid supplies which I then distributed to the local UKR unit that needed them.

Now I understand it is much tighter and some with combat experience have even been turned away for one reason or another.

***

Q: What kind of military training do you have?

A: Guard Jaeger Regiment and a specialist in urban warfare.

***

Q: Have you met other Finns there?

A: Even now, I am part of an independent unit made up entirely of Finns. Relative to the population, Finns are probably the most numerous volunteers here. And although it sounds like I'm wearing blue & white glasses, we are the most effective fighters of the foreign volunteers because of our uniform training and culture.

Q: Aren't there a pretty good number of Swedes there as well?

A: There have been a few of those too.

***

Q: What is the level of medical supplies there? Is there enough CATs, Celox, hydration stuff, etc. available in sufficient quantities? Are there any big shortages that you should have?

A: You always need more CATs and Celox. The biggest shortages are those of first aid supplies.

***

Q: Whose side are you fighting on?

A: Justice and democracy.

***

Q: Is the rest of combat units handled systematically, i.e. is there a steady rotation in the front/reserve/rear?

A: There is roation, but I can't say more than that.

***

Q: Your own assessment of whether Ukraine has enough firepower to keep the country out of Russia and whether it has enough muscle to retake the Donbass? What about the Crimean peninsula?

A: My own assessment? As long as the West continues to supply Ukraine with material, Russia has no chance of occupying it. Russia did not even take Kiev when the war broke out and the situation was at its worst. I don't want to speculate on anything else at this stage but I would be surprised if the Donbas were still under Russian control by the end of the year.

***

Q: Have you seen any Estonians? How are they doing?

A: I have seen and the Estonian brothers have done credit to themselves and their country by their actions.

***

Q: You seem to have modern AR-based rifles, how did you get them? From what I've been following James Vasquez on Twitter, he had an old AK-47 slapped on his hand, and has had to scrape together a bunch of gear for himself and his team anyway.

A: Right place, right time. Equipment varies greatly between the different units. Some get their rifles directly from the Yanks, some get old Soviet AKs. I've had both here in a short time.

***

Q: How good a chance would you give Ukraine of winning the war, now that you have a perspective on the situation from the ground.

A: 100% as long as material assistance from abroad continues.

***

Q: Do you have a NCO system in your Finnish outfit? And do you have protective equipment in case the Russians use gas?

A: Yes and yes.

***


I've no idea what happened to him, last activity on his Reddit account was from 9 months ago. Though, I've seen him being mentioned by others every now and then in random posts indicating he has returned back to Finland.

[Jimbuna]

Mysterious events continue as top ally in ‘serious condition’ after alleged poisoning

Ramzan Kadyrov, one of Vladimir Putin's closest allies who advocated for using nuclear weapons against Ukraine, has allegedly summoned a leading doctor from the UAE because he 'does not trust' Moscow doctors.

Kadyrov was poisoned by the GRU, sources claim
People have noticed Kadyrov’s surprising absence from Vladimir Putin's state of the nation speech in Moscow last month and his 'bloated' appearance at the recent meetings in his palace in the Chechen capital Grozny. The reason behind them may have been found.

Several opposition sources’ claim Kadyrov may have been poisoned and is suffering from a kidney illness.

The Chechen leader's luxury private jet was known to have made several trips recently to the UAE, and he has been less visible than usual in recent weeks.

Kazakh journalist Azamat Maytanov citing his own sources claimed Kadyrov may be terminally ill, with poisoning the possible cause.

Maytanov wrote on his Telegram channel:

"There is information that the chief nephrologist of the UAE, Dr Yasin Ibrahim El-Shahat, a well-known doctor with 30 years of experience, has arrived in Grozny [the capital of Chechnya]. His area of expertise lies in nephrology, dialysis, transplantation, glomerulonephritis, and acute renal failure. Kadyrov is allegedly very bad and has serious kidney problems."

Exiled Kremlin foe Leonid Nevzlin echoed the claims, suggesting that ‘Kadyrov clearly does not trust Russian doctors’.

Kadyrov - reportedly a father of 14 with three current wives - has strongly attacked the running of the war in Ukraine, especially by the Russian defence ministry and certain generals.

He had 'made too many enemies among the generals who have access to the GRU's developments', sources claim.

The GRU is Russian military intelligence, held responsible for poisoning double agent Sergei Skripal in Britain in 2018.

Putin's FSB has also carried out poisoning attacks, for example on opposition leader Alexei Navalny in 2020, in Siberia, and foe Alexander Litvinenko in London in 2006.

Just last month a similar fate reportedly befell Kadyrov’s close ally Major-General Apti Alaudinov.

Alaudinov, the commander of the Akhmat special forces and a frequent guest on Russian state television, picked up a letter that contained a substance with a strong smell on February 8 and ended up being treated in a hospital in Moscow together with two aides.

Chechen warlord commented then that ‘an investigation of the assassination attempt, identifying those involved’ was underway.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/vladimir-putin-mysterious-events-continue-as-top-ally-in-serious-condition-after-alleged-poisoning/ar-AA18ePTq?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=f06ba1bc21024d4d97b8c35a2d8746d3&ei=10

[Jimbuna]

Scholz was asked uncomfortable question about helping Armenia circumvent Russian sanctions

Armenia does not help Russia circumvent the sanctions imposed by the European Union in response to the invasion of Ukraine, Nikol Pashinyan said.

In Armenia, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz was asked about sanctions against Russia. In particular, journalists pointed out that after the introduction of sanctions, trade turnover between the EU and Russia decreased, but exports from Europe to Armenia and from Armenia to Russia increased, writes Glavred, Censor.NET reports.

"With the start of the war in Ukraine, exports from Germany and other EU countries to the Russian Federation decreased. At the same time, exports to Armenia and from Armenia to Russia increased. Last week, we learned from Economy Minister Robert Habek that Russia buys goods from the EU, especially high-tech and auto parts through third countries. These figures show that Armenia can play a role here. Have you discussed this?" - the journalist asks Chancellor Scholz.

In response, Scholz noted that he and Pashinyan did not discuss this issue.

"We monitor economic indicators. At the same time, it is important for us not only to monitor economic indicators, to explain the correlation, but also to see that our economic sanctions are not bypassed, and this, of course, is what we demand," said Scholz.

The Prime Minister of Armenia, Nikol Pashinyan himself, after meeting with Olaf Scholz, stated that Armenia does not help Russia circumvent the sanctions introduced by the European Union in response to the invasion of Ukraine.

Pashinyan added that his country is trying to establish relations with the EU, and therefore is not interested in actions that could harm it.

"This is nothing more than rumours, in fact the opposite is true," he said.

As you know, for 2022, exports from Germany to Armenia increased from 178 million euros in 2021 to 505 million euros in 2022. Exports from the EU increased from 753 million euros in 2021 to 1.3 billion euros in 2022.

Exports from Armenia to Russia in 2022 have almost tripled - from $841 million to $2 billion 411 million.

In particular, thanks to re-exports, however, government representatives assure that sanctioned goods are not resold to Russia.

The day before, it became known that a number of member states called on the European Union to block companies and third countries from being able to circumvent sanctions against Russia, using trade and access to the single European market as leverage.

Belgium, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Spain and the Netherlands took this initiative. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3403805

[Catfish]

Thanks :salute:

[mapuc]

Thank you so much Dowly. Very interesting read.

From what I know or have heard is that there are tens of thousands volunteers fighting in Ukraine A huge majority is fighting on the Ukrainian side and a few percentage on the Russian side.

Markus

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zkEgkutN2cs

[Jimbuna]

China must decide whether it really wants to side with Putin, White House

The Chinese government must decide whether it really wants to side with Russian President Vladimir Putin and support his aggression with military supplies.

This was said by John Kirby, the coordinator of the National Security Council for strategic communications of the White House, in an interview with "Voice of America", Censor.NET reports.

"China has to make a choice. Does it really want to side with Russian President Putin? Does it really want to help Mr. Putin kill innocent Ukrainians? Because that's exactly what a move like this would look like," he said.

Kirby is sure that this will deal a blow to China's reputation and its standing among the international community.

"If China cares about its international reputation, one would assume that it would see this as not in its interests," Kirby said.

He added that the US strongly urged Chinese leader Xi Jinping to make the right choice and not help Putin kill Ukrainians. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3403811

Shoigu demands from General Muradov to capture Vuhledar, but soldiers and officers refuse to storm city, - General Staff

The General Staff released information about the situation in the middle of the Russian army, some parts of which refuse to go on the offensive.

As Censor.NET informs, this was reported on the official Facebook page of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

The message states: "A conflict is brewing in the top military leadership of the Russian Federation due to significant losses and the lack of real achievements at the front.

In February of this year, Putin awarded the commander of the Eastern Military District, Muradov, the rank of colonel general for a report on the "successes" of the 155th Marine Infantry Brigade in the Vugledar region.

Now the Shoigu demands that the general work out his rank and take the city at any cost. According to the available information, the leadership of the brigade and the servicemen refuse to go on a senseless offensive again, in which the incompetent leadership sends them - to storm the well-fortified positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine without any support and preparation." Source: https://censor.net/en/n3403820

[Skybird]

Dowly's link was the second info in a short time indicating from a Finnish source that the quality of Ukrainian troops is not what I - and many - thought to be.

On the one hand we have reports and the operatiional successes from last year that give praise to general Zalushni, Ukraine's chief of staff, for having achieved in very short time a total dismantling of Sovjet era doctrine and enabling Ukrainian forces to adapt to and fight by NATO doctrinal standards, or at least copy them closely and close enough to make use of NATO assistance very effectively. It is also said a strength of the ukrainain forcesise that they do not depend that much on centralized command like the Sovjets/Russians, but that units in the field know how to improvise efficiently while staying objective-focussed. That they work more like an autonomous swarm, and less depending on a centralised brain. Which allows them to compensate for individual faults at the officers' level.

On the other hand there are now two reports from Fins saying the quality of the Ukrainian troops is not much different than that of the Russians, that they are very short of NCOs like the Russians are, and that it is easy to stun them in place by taking out their commanders. In other words they say they are still operating by Sovjet doctrinal standards.

That is a contradiction of course. Or is it not? Could it be that the undeniable improvements - the Ukrainian army of 2022 was much stronger than the Ukrainian army in 2014 - are limited to the operational level of warfare, command and control at the division and corps level , while at the tactical level, say platoon, company and maybe batallion level still the Sovjet spirit haunts the way the Ukrainians run the fighting?

German trainers who train Ukrainian troops and tank crews are full of praise only, saying the men are extremely motivated, learn and train until they drop asleep while standing, so to speak. They say they learn extremely fast.

[Dowly]

That is a contradiction of course. Or is it not? Could it be that the undeniable improvements - the Ukrainian army of 2022 was much stronger than the Ukrainian army in 2014 - are limited to the operational level of warfare, command and control at the division and corps level , while at the tactical level, say platoon, company and maybe batallion level still the Sovjet spirit haunts the way the Ukrainians run the fighting?What he (the reservist) says is the opposite; Senior commanders are still relying on their Soviet era training where as lower commanders have adapted better to the modern way of fighting.


Here's a story from another Finnish volunteer, again highlighting the incompetence of the senior officers:


We arrived from Yavoriv to Rivne.

We got there and thought, what the hell?
10 big tents, about 30 guys each, in a 40x30m area, side by side in open terrain.
If a missile hits that, it's a whole unit down at once.
We complain to the NCOs about it and almost all agree that we should quickly disperse the tents.

Next day.

The senior officers are constantly being told to get that tent village out of there. The officers understand, but are reluctant because they can't control the troops so precisely and ask how we'll ever get the men in formation on time, etc. We suggest the use of a clock.

Second or third night in Rivne:

I wake up again without warning to the blast of a cruise missile and take off running from the tent without shoes and without putting on much clothing for a few hundred yards to the foxholes. It's freezing, but I'd rather suffer the cold than stay in my tent under a missile strike.

On the way to the foxhole, the air raid siren goes off. Howling, that'll help at this point. Sleeping duty officer panicked and dmg controls? As I recall, soon there was another bang, but a little quieter.

We start to hear the crackle of fire and see a light about 400m away. We start guessing where the closest one hit and our guesses are soon confirmed by the fact that the adjacent tent village was hit by a cruise missile. Similar concentration of tents to ours.

Oh ****, I don't think we'll get any sleep in the tent tonight. I'll be back soon to get more clothes from the tent. In the meantime, the bunch of us sitting in the foxhole, warming each other up like penguins.

Some of those who went to give first aid came back to find the situation hopeless. Burnt bodies, mostly.

The next day dawns and the battalion commander breaks the bad news. Embarrassed, he immediately starts ordering the tents to be dispersed as quickly as possible. Again something had to happen before he dared to act.

In practice, we were again extremely lucky. The Russians chose the next tent village by luck, although we were just as valid a target, even more desirable for them. At least two missiles came down. I heard of another hit, but I won't comment on that as it's not in the news.

[mapuc]

What he (the reservist) says is the opposite; Senior commanders are still relying on their Soviet era training where as lower commanders have adapted better to the modern way of fighting.

This was also the impression I got from reading your post-So I copied the words where he says they got almost surrounded because of an incompetent commander.


Q: How close have you been to the worst gunfire/air strikes, or what has been the worst situation you have faced so far?

A: The most direct and worst situation was being almost surrounded because of an incompetent commander. At the time I was pretty sure that at best I would spend the next 10 years in a Russian prison accused of being a terrorist and at worst buried in the Ukrainian steppes. But all's well that ends well, with a bit of luck I survived.

Q: Have the commanders on your side been competent for the most part? Do you feel you are in good hands most of the time?

A: Depends. Younger commanders who have been fighting since 2014 are very competent. Older and more senior commanders (those with Soviet training) in my own experience have generally been incompetent in modern warfare. And because of one of them, I almost lost my own life.

Markus

[Skybird]

This makes even less sense to me then. How can they achieve such successes and act with mobility and agility and individual initiave unknown in Sovjet doctrine if Zalushnyi has not acchieved something in his mission, as they write about him, "to throw everything Sovjet out"? The russians last but not least ran into the ukrainians' open knifes because they expected them to act like they did in 2014 and since then, and according to that old doctrine. And got royally surprised, obviously.

How are such successes at the operational level possible if now it is said the senior officers still tick and click by Sovjet doctrine that Zalushnyi wanted to weed out from beginning of his term on?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Valerii_Zaluzhnyi

I see the problem in Zelensky, regadring the military aspects.

He is no militarily experienced strategist or tactician, and he made terribvole mistakes in assessing the chance sof war in the years before the invasion. He is the right man to drum for international support and sympathy, but before that need arose and now juzstfies him to be president, he was not really good in office they say, and was not much liked by his people.

I wonder to what degree he interferes with his military planners. And Zalushnyi. However, until here he was clever enough to leave the man on his post and do the war.

Yes, I have high respect for that General Zalushnyi. And I seem to not be alone with that, internationally he is much respected.

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e5gscCB7KDY

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wLAPXONZaH8

[Skybird]

Oh-oh. Ukranian troops (verbally) attacking their own leadership. If they took their time so long with this, it probably must be really bad.



https://kyivindependent.com/national/ukrainian-soldiers-in-bakhmut-our-troops-are-not-being-protected

[Skybird]

Had this misplaced in the Wuhan thread. Sorry.
Neue Zürcher Zeitung has this opinion piece:
--------------------------
Contemplating the Russians' deaths: Glorified carnage on social media distorts reality

The destruction of Russian troops is staged in brutal videos from the front. But "war porn" has its pitfalls. We should not be infected by the dehumanization on display.

After the first Russian tanks rolled across the border with Ukraine in the early morning of February 24, 2022, it didn't take long for a flood of videos to hit the Internet. From the windows of their homes, terrified Ukrainians filmed the advancing columns of vehicles in the south and the airborne operation in the north of the country. They filmed the soldiers in the streets, the missile strikes and the first casualties of Putin's invasion.

The footage on social media reinforced the bewilderment that spread across Europe on that February 24 in the face of the war of aggression.

In the weeks and months that followed, the flood of images did not recede. Soon the videos showed the cohesion of people in the subway stations and bunkers; they showed how brave men and women stood up to the Russian tanks. They shocked when they showed the massacre of Butcha or the war hell in Mariupol. They gave hope when the Ukrainians retook village after village in Kharkiv and Kherson in the fall. The footage captivated, dismayed, surprised.

Today, the war is different - and the videos circulating on social networks have changed with it. The fronts in the south and east of the country have hardened into a war of positions with heavy losses. In the apocalyptic scene, the helmet cameras of soldiers in the trenches and drones in the air now document the gruesome reality of the slaughter. The death on display at close range is hard to bear - yet these images are still shared thousands of times.

It is striking that the vast majority of these videos come from the Ukrainian side, which allows the public to participate quasi live in the annihilation of Russian troops. The question arises: what is the purpose of these videos? And how do they influence our perception of the war?

Representations of wars, conflicts and atrocities have exerted a great fascination on mankind ever since Homer's "Iliad" at the latest. Monumental battle paintings bore witness to victories, defeats and their victims, created heroic myths and shaped nation-state narratives. With the advent of photography and film, a powerful new instrument was born through which a broad mass could participate in the horrors of war.

Images of suffering have immense power. After World War II, photographs from the Auschwitz and Dachau death camps contributed to the European "never again" mentality; impressions of the destruction of Hiroshima and Nagasaki by atomic bombs continue to shape geopolitical debates today. During the Vietnam War, photographs of war victims mobilized masses around the world.

At the same time, depictions of war can be instrumentalized by fomenting resentment and a desire for revenge. Time and again, photographs and film footage have been used to justify military interventions - in Yugoslavia, in Syria, in the Donbass.

In her 2003 essay "Contemplating the Suffering of Others," the late American writer Susan Sontag wrote: "Photographs of an atrocity can provoke conflicting reactions. The call for peace. The cry for revenge. Or simply the dull awareness, constantly supplied with new photographic information, that terrible things keep happening. Some people have long believed that if you just depicted the horror vividly enough, most people would eventually grasp the enormity and insanity of war."

But today, more than ever, the gruesome realities of war can be viewed up close, even where there are no journalists with cameras on the ground. Social networks have contributed decisively to this development. In the echo chambers of Twitter and Telegram, the brutality captured on film spreads practically in real time and without moderation: piles of corpses of Wagner mercenaries, hand-to-hand combat in the trenches, exploding tanks.

Of course, the mostly Ukrainian videos from the front lines at Bachmut, Kreminna or Wuhledar have a propagandistic character: they are supposed to scare off the enemy, to demonstrate the strength of one's own troops to the population and the effectiveness of the delivered weapons to the allies. With some success, because it was not least the shocking images from the war zone that contributed significantly to the continuing solidarity with Ukraine and intensified the Ukrainians' will to defend themselves.

The wealth of video material from the war zone can also be a real treasure. It allows, for example, the clarification of war crimes, as has been shown in minute research on the Butscha massacre. It makes it possible to precisely trace the destructive strategies of Russian warfare. Never before has it been possible to analyze and process an armed conflict so directly. Not only journalists, but also military strategists, generals and foreign policy makers can draw their conclusions from this material.

However, if this footage is disseminated without classification and context, a distorted picture of reality emerges all too quickly: It is suggested that the Ukrainians are untouchable, while certain death awaits the Russians in their assaults. In fact, the Battle of Bachmut, for example, showed that no blood toll is too high for Putin and Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin. But the Ukrainians are also paying for their fierce resistance with thousands of deaths - only this fact is hardly ever shown in pictures, and the Ukrainian casualty figures are a well-kept secret.

Of course, there are also countless videos from Russian sources, which come across no less ghastly and glorifying in relevant Telegram channels. However, these recordings are extremely rarely disseminated in the West. It is sometimes more convenient to perceive only one side of reality. But this is a mistake.

Some people are too easily euphorized by the Ukrainian success stories - this also applies to journalists. When videos of dozens of destroyed tanks recently emerged, testifying to a crushing Russian defeat at Wuhledar, numerous media outlets joined in a triumphant tenor, according to which Moscow's spring offensive, which had been anticipated with unease, had already failed. But there can be no question of that yet; Russia has increased the pressure on several sections of the front. In the embattled city of Bachmut, however, Kiev has recently regained some leeway. Meanwhile, it remains unclear whether Ukraine can muster the capacity for an effective offensive in the foreseeable future.

Moreover, the footage appears to serve another demand: the peculiar desire to see the Russians take a real beating. Just as the slaughter of Nazis has become a Hollywood genre in its own right, the death of Russians evokes a peculiar satisfaction in some.

On some channels, corpses of Russian soldiers are shamelessly displayed as war trophies, and commentary celebrates the deaths of the invaders. A particularly perfidious genre are those videos of drones dropping their shells into Russian trenches and foxholes until nothing moves in them. It is the gruesome reality of war - but combined with hard bass, these glorifying depictions take on an almost pornographic character.

Such shots dehumanize killing and at the same time aestheticize it in a grotesque way. Brutalization in the context of war has not been around since yesterday - but for the first time a broad public can participate in it unfiltered. It is particularly irritating that the official channels of the Ukrainian armed forces also disseminate such material and gleefully stage the killing of Russians, who are sweepingly referred to as "orcs".

It is true that the diabolization and dehumanization of the invaders are to a certain extent understandable from the Ukrainian perspective as a coping strategy. However, it is important, especially in the West, not to be infected by bitter hatred of everything Russian. The real warmonger is a dictator in the Kremlin, but there will be a Russia after Putin. It will also be in the interest of the West not to treat this future Russia with contempt, but with an outstretched hand.
------------------------------

The last sentence is premature for these times and the present events. Else: good comment.

[Jimbuna]

Putin's 'real vulnerability' exposed as Wagner boss issues major ultimatum

Vladimir Putin's "real vulnerability" has been exposed as Russian troops are reported to be dying at enormous rates in Ukraine - much like they did in another pivotal conflict that contributed to the collapse of the Soviet Union. Former US Ambassador Sarah Mendelson said the number of casualties could be a "real vulnerability" for the Russian President because of the impact on families in the country. She noted a similar issue had emerged during the Soviet Union's war in Afghanistan, a mistake that delivered a serious blow to the already struggling USSR.

Speaking to Express.co.uk, the Carnegie Mellon University academic said: "The casualty rate...there's a whole industry looking at the Soviet war in Afghanistan.

"The official number of dead is at about 15,000, some people think 90,000, for a 10-year stretch.

"UK, US intelligence and defence estimates are upward to 200,000 at this point [in Ukraine].

"You're seeing a much higher number of casualties in terms of Russia in Ukraine. I think that's the real vulnerability."

The former US Ambassador to the UN noted Russians are unlikely to start opposing the lengthy invasion of Ukraine because of the crimes against humanity troops have been accused of carrying out.

But she noted the war's impact on families could pose significant issues for Putin in the long term.

Mendelson continued: "Eventually, at some point, this war is affecting far more Russian families than even the Soviet war in Afghanistan or the second war in Chechnya.

"There the casualty rate is what people cared about - they cared about the cost of the war, they cared about the casualty rate."

She added: "They may not care about the complete slaughter of Ukrainian children, women and men but they will be responsive to the casualty rate."

Academics have long claimed Russia's inability to make significant advances over ten years in Afghanistan, paired with the considerable death rate among soldiers, played a pivotal role in the Soviet Union's downfall.

And with Putin now a year into his invasion of Ukraine, questions have arisen about his ability to deliver on his plan to annex more Ukrainian territory into Russia.

Earlier this year, Moscow signalled the draft age could be raised to 30 as early as the spring in its efforts to expand its soldier availability.

After months of stalling because of the winter, the Russian Army has renewed its efforts to advance across Ukraine - with the city of Bakmuth once again at the centre of the fight.

Russian forces this week have continued to encroach on the devastated eastern Ukrainian city but its defenders still denied the Kremlin the prize it has sought for six months at the cost of thousands of lives.

Donetsk Governor Pavlo Kyrylenko said: "Civilians are fleeing the region to escape Russian shelling continuing round the clock as additional Russian troops and weapons are being deployed there."

Bakhmut doesn't have any major strategic value, and analysts say its possible fall is unlikely to bring a turning point in the conflict. Its importance has become psychological. A victory in the area would finally deliver some good news to Putin.

The boss of Russia's private Wagner army blamed Moscow's failure to provide ammunition for the failed assault. Yevgeny Prigozhin pinned the failure on "bureaucracy or betrayal" in a swipe at the Kremlin.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/putin-s-real-vulnerability-exposed-as-wagner-boss-issues-major-ultimatum/ar-AA18hrVz?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=489aab79df0d40e8afbca673afe6fd58&ei=13

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C6ReDtpfKCU

[Jimbuna]

International Center for Investigation of Russian Crimes in Ukraine should be operational by beginning of summer, - European Commission

The International Center for the Investigation of the Crime of Aggression (ICPA) of the Russian Federation against Ukraine should be operational by the beginning of summer in The Hague. The creation of its main structures will be completed within two months.

This was announced by the official representative of the European Commission, Christian Wiegand, Censor.NET informs with reference to DW.

This center will store and analyze evidence for future trials, both nationally and internationally. The European Commission emphasized that all evidence will be stored centrally in a safe place.

The International Center will be part of the Joint Investigation Team (JIT) under Eurojust. It is this agency that intends to deal with the practical implementation of the project and will provide its legal, operational, and logistical support, as stated on the Eurojust website. The center will unite prosecutors from different countries to prepare cases for the future prosecution of those responsible for alleged crimes of aggression against Ukraine. It is about the political and military leadership of the aggressor state.

The official representative of the European Commission reminded that in the current state of affairs, to avoid impunity, it is necessary to overcome legal and practical difficulties. The alleged crime of aggression against Ukraine cannot be prosecuted, as it requires the consent of the Russian Federation or the UN Security Council, of which it is a permanent member. However, the creation of an international ICPA center is an important step in the direction of a potential special tribunal. This is a high-priority task, which is why all participants, including Eurojust, are working at maximum speed to get the center up and running as soon as possible, Wiegand said.

The legal basis for the creation of the ICPA was laid at the international conference "United for Justice", which took place in Lviv from March 3 to 5, where members of the joint investigative group for Ukraine adopted the relevant amendments to their agreement. These amendments "reflect the desire of all JIT partners to close the legal gap" in the area of ending impunity and provide Eurojust with "a strong legal basis for the practical implementation as soon as possible" of this intention, Eurojust Chairman Ladislav Hamran said.

In addition, another international platform was launched at the conference - a dialogue group under the auspices of the Netherlands on bringing to justice those guilty of war crimes in Ukraine. It is a coordination mechanism that offers countries, international organizations, and civil sector stakeholders a platform to discuss and coordinate national and international initiatives in this area. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3404027

Lithuanian Defense Minister Anushauskas announced new package of military aid to Ukraine

The Minister of National Defense of Lithuania Arvydas Anushauskas met with the First Deputy Minister of Defense of Ukraine, Lieutenant General Oleksandr Pavliuk, who arrived in Vilnius to share the experience gained during the integration of paramilitary structures into the Armed Forces.

As Censor.NET informs with reference to Interfax-Ukraine, the press service of the Ministry of Defense of Lithuania reports this.

"The lessons learned in Ukraine help us purposefully develop our military capabilities. We also take a firm position on supporting Ukraine in all possible ways and are preparing a new aid package for Ukraine," said Anusauskas.

It is noted that currently Lithuania has provided military aid to Ukraine in the amount of almost EUR 409 million. A new aid package is currently being prepared.

"A large part of Lithuania's aid to Ukraine is military training. This year it is planned to train 1,600 soldiers. Lithuanian instructors train Ukrainians both at the national level, in Lithuania, and within the framework of the EU Training Mission and international initiatives such as Interflex. It is also planned to develop a demining course in Lithuania in cooperation with the countries of Northern Europe," the department notes.

They add that the minister also emphasized that Lithuania is intensively preparing for the NATO summit, which will be held in Vilnius this summer and at which, among other important issues, an agreement will be reached on Ukraine's membership prospects. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3404039

[mapuc]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VBUFzJTiliU&ab_channel=DenysDavydov

Markus

[Rockstar]

Russia may have bodies they can send in overwhelming waves at gun point. Even that will come to an end when more and more front line troops realize their destiny is U.U.U.U. Also from what I’m seeing they lack solid supply chains and command, control, and communications to execute even the most basic coordinated attacks. They are failing and there is definitely dissension among the ranks.

While they roll out decrepit 60 year old T-62’s we have bombers in theatre circling high above ready to obliterate the Russian asshats very way of life and everything they hold dear.

[Jimbuna]

Russian TV pundit turns on Putin warning he 'won't live long enough to see end of war'

ARussian TV pundit has given a chilling warning to Vladimir Putin, predicting the Russian leader won't live long enough to see the war's end. Pundit Sergei Mikheyev appeared on a Russian state TV talk show and said if the current pace of the war in Ukraine continues, neither Vladimir Putin and his Kremlin insiders nor the general population will live long enough to see any success. The show was hosted by Vladimir Solovyov, who is known for being one of Putin's main propagandists.

Mikheyev told the host: "Our position has severely worsened. We either move forward and stop imitating sovereignty and truly achieve success, or we retreat with a massive failure."

The former director of the Russian research company Centre for Current Policy Analysis, spoke out against the Kremlin and Russian military commanders, criticizing their "silence" in response to setbacks on the battlefield.

Mikheyev stated that Russia could not afford to appear weak by retreating and called for long-distance strikes to be launched to demonstrate Russian technological superiority and to create problems for nations supporting Ukraine.

While Solovyov appeared to agree with many of Mikheyev's statements, the other members of the panel looked shocked.

Mikheyev has been a vocal proponent of a hardline approach to Russia's involvement in the Ukraine conflict, arguing for taking as much territory as possible.

Ukrainian military leaders expressed determination Monday to hold onto Bakhmut as Russian forces encroached on the devastated eastern city they have sought to capture for six months at the cost of thousands of lives.

Less than a week ago, an adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said the defenders might retreat from Bakhmut and fall back to nearby positions.

But Zelensky's office said Monday that he chaired a meeting in which the country's top military brass "spoke in favour of continuing the defence operation and further strengthening our positions in Bakhmut".

Intense Russian shelling targeted the city in the Donetsk region and nearby villages as Moscow deployed more resources to try to finish off Bakhmut's resistance, according to local officials.

"Civilians are fleeing the region to escape Russian shelling continuing round the clock," Donetsk Governor Pavlo Kyrylenko said.

Russian forces invaded Ukraine just over a year ago and have been unable to deliver a knockout blow that would allow them to seize Bakhmut.

Analysts say it does not have major strategic value and that its capture would be unlikely to serve as a turning point in the conflict.

The Russian push for Bakhmut reflects the Kremlin's broader struggle to achieve battlefield momentum.

Moscow's full-scale invasion on February 24, 2022, soon stalled, and Ukraine launched a largely successful counteroffensive.

Over the bitterly cold winter months, the fighting has largely been deadlocked.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/russian-tv-pundit-turns-on-putin-warning-he-won-t-live-long-enough-to-see-end-of-war/ar-AA18icAn?ocid=mailsignout&pc=U591&cvid=a0d030b9f14b494295790d12e5b2501f&ei=17

[Jimbuna]

Russian officers stage mutiny and 'abandon attack' on key town after losses

Russian military officers are reportedly refusing to launch a new attack on the Ukrainian town of Vugledar after suffering heavy losses in a tank battle. It has been claimed that Russia lost around 130 tanks and armoured fighting vehicles in a recent offensive to take the town, located in the Donetsk oblast.

Ukrainian military officers told the Kyiv Post that the Russian brigade refused orders to continue attacking the town.

One was quoted as saying: "The leaders of the brigade and senior officers are refusing to proceed with a new senseless attack as demanded by their unskilled commanders - to storm well-defended Ukrainian positions with little protection or preparation."

The Russian military is reportedly close to taking the town of Bakhmut, also in the east of Ukraine, but this battle has also exposed divisions within Russian ranks.

Yevgeny Priogzohin, leader of the Wagner private military group, has accused Russian forces of withholding ammunition from them.

Prigozhin said: "I'm knocking on all doors and sounding the alarm about ammunition and reinforcements, as well as the need to cover our flanks.

"If everyone is coordinated, without ambition, screw-ups and tantrums, and carries out this work, then we will block the armed forces of Ukraine. If not, then everyone will be s*****d."

He also warned that the "front will collapse" of Wagner stops helping Russia.

Prigozhin added: "If Wagner retreats from Bakhmut now, the whole front will collapse. The situation will not be sweet for all military formations protecting Russian interests."
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/ukraine-live-russian-officers-stage-mutiny-and-abandon-attack-on-key-town-after-losses/ar-AA18j8Ge?ocid=mailsignout&pc=U591&cvid=d42cadc262a243598d497b00ca9c0a9e&ei=15

[Jimbuna]

Europe warned over Russian 'nuclear issue' as Iron Curtain draws on continent once again

"From Stettin in the Baltic to Trieste in the Adriatic," Sir Winston Churchill said during an impassioned speech while visiting Missouri under the watchful eye of US President Harry Truman. "An iron curtain has descended across the Continent." His remarks, made 77 years ago, came a year after World War 2, and just as the threat of the Soviet Union became unnervingly real. Dividing Europe into two separate entities in the aftermath of the bruising conflict, the Iron Curtain was supposedly brought down in 1991. But many believe history is moving towards repeating itself.

Russia's hostility towards the West has endured despite the Cold War ending decades ago, its bloody war with Ukraine demonstrating Moscow's ruthless desire to assert what it sees as lost control.

The war, which has seen NATO members ply Ukraine with military support, and humanitarian and financial aid to tackle Vladimir Putin's invasion marked its grim one-year anniversary in late February, with thousands dead and little progress made.

As the months have gone on, with pressure piling on Putin to achieve a victory, the analyses of how the war could pan out have grown increasingly worrying.

Among the most concerning scenarios include Russia using nuclear weapons in Ukraine and its allies should the West become more directly involved in the conflict.

All of this has led to speculation around the Iron Curtain returning, including by Timothy Phillips, author of, The Curtain and the Wall: A Modern Journey Along Europe's Cold War Border.

Speaking to TimesRADIO in October, Mr Phillips, who travelled the length of the former Iron Curtain, described how he felt the war could end up going - with the nuclear option still a significant possibility.

He said: "There is a growing division between the ethos and values of Eastern Europe, even the bits of Eastern Europe that are in the European Union and NATO in terms of cultural issues around gender politics and sexual politics and those things that do mean that when you cross you can still feel that you're leaving one part of Europe and entering another.

"The nuclear issue is what caused Iron Curtain and the Cold War to go on for so long, and we still have that with us."

Europe could well be on the brink of returning to a Cold War-type divide - many believe it has already happened.

Reports this week suggest that a Russian defence ministry journal insists Moscow has begun developing new forms of strategies to protect their interests in the war.

Whether Russia would actually use nuclear weapons has been mulled over by insiders, with Italy claiming earlier this week Putin would not use such devastating bombs to win its war.

Previous comments by Putin, though, offer a different angle as to whether he actually will unleash the deadly weapons. During a meeting with Russia's Human Rights Council at the Kremlin in October, he said Moscow would fight by "all available means at our disposal".

He added: "As for the idea that Russia wouldn't use such weapons first under any circumstances, then it means we wouldn't be able to be the second to use them either - because the possibility to do so in case of an attack on our territory would be very limited.

"Nevertheless, we have a strategy... namely, as a defence, we consider weapons of mass destruction, nuclear weapons - it is all based around the so-called retaliatory strike. That is, when we are struck, we strike in response."

More recently, the nation's deputy foreign minister Sergei Ryabkov said that Moscow could be forced to respond were the US to get further involved in the war. This is despite the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) being in place.

He said the situation regarding the treaty was "causing more and more concern." He continued: "The responsibility for the fact that the Treaty has not entered into force for more than a quarter of a century of its existence lies, in fact, with the United States, which defiantly refused to ratify it and is showing an obvious inclination to resume testing.

"We cannot remain indifferent to what is happening. If the United States nevertheless decides to take such a step and be the first to conduct nuclear tests, we will be forced to respond adequately. No one should have dangerous illusions that global strategic parity can be destroyed."
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/europe-warned-over-russian-nuclear-issue-as-iron-curtain-draws-on-continent-once-again/ar-AA18eG0J?ocid=mailsignout&pc=U591&cvid=7af72c8a2f3643f8b66e3d81d28cda69&ei=19

[Skybird]

As a reminde,r the non.ratificaiton by the Us was due to China not willing to limit its nuclear arming up, thus the treaty opuwld limit the US, but allows the Sino-Russian axis of evil to nevertheless raise the number of systems by a Chinese raise.

[Skybird]

Deutsche Welle:
Ukrainian top generals have vowed to continue to defend the contended eastern city of Bakhmut (https://www.dw.com/en/bakhmut-what-will-be-the-outcome-of-the-battle/a-64882799) amid reports suggesting that Russia is inching closer to capturing it.
After months of fighting in and around Bakhmut, Russian forces remain adamant about capturing the city, which would be their first significant battlefield victory in some six months.
Western strategists and officials suggest a Russian occupation of the city would be of more symbolic than strategic value.
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, however, said control of Bakhmut would allow Moscow's forces to mount further attacks deeper inside Ukraine.
"The city is an important hub for defending Ukrainian troops in the Donbas. Taking it under control will allow further offensive actions to be conducted deep into Ukraine's defensive lines," he said.
Reports from the battlefield suggest that Ukrainian troops have recently been reinforcing positions west of the city, apparently preparing to withdraw.
However, in his nightly address on Monday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he held discussions with top generals and they agreed "not to withdraw."
"The command unanimously supported this position. There were no other positions. I told the commander-in-chief to find the appropriate forces to help our guys in Bakhmut," Zelenskyy said.
The battle has drained both sides' artillery reserves, with thousands of shells fired daily.
----------------------

It makes sense to defend Bachmut:
1. It binds Russian forces and attrites them drastically. For as long as the Russian losses are dysproportionally bigger than the Ukrianian losses, it makes sense to continue doing that.
2. It leaves the Russians distracted while the Ukrainians collect forces elsewhere in preparation of an own offensive south of Bachmut.
3. It buys time for Ukraine.
4. It gives Russia the time to let its conficts in leadership simmering on and developing further.
5. It protects urban settlement areas west of Bachmut, and leaves Ukrainian artillery in reach of eastern supply lines of the Russians that run in North-Southern direction, east of Bachmut. That extends these supply lines, forcing the Russians to invest more time.
6. I thinders the Russians to take positions for artillery from where they could strike deep into the third - and last - defence line of the ukrainians.

Bachmut may not have a value on the operational level as many Western analysts claim, but I strongly think on the tactical and strategic level it has. Questioning the above reasons may come from trying to use standards from peacetime-thinking for assessing the needs of war.To me, Bachmut is pretty much an Ukrainian deception that prepares the offensive they plan. We will see when the Western tanks have arrived and the according batallion(s) have been formed up.

[Jimbuna]

Shooting for phrase "Glory to Ukraine": previously, killed soldier of 30th SMB Timofii Shadura. PHOTO

According to preliminary data, the deceased, who was shot by the occupiers for the phrase "Glory to Ukraine" is a serviceman of the 30th separate mechanized brigade Tymofii Mykolayovych Shadura.

This is reported by Censor.NET with reference to the press center of the brigade.

"Yesterday, social networks and mass media published a video recording of the shooting of a serviceman of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, who was killed by the Russian invaders after he said "Glory to Ukraine!" According to preliminary data, the deceased is a serviceman of the 30th separate mechanized brigade, Tymofii Mykolayovych Shadura," the message reads.

It is also reported that Timofii Shadura is considered missing since February 3, 2023, after hostilities in the area of the city of Bakhmut.

"Currently, the body of our serviceman is in the temporarily occupied territory. The final confirmation of the identity will be established after the return of the body and the relevant examinations.
The command of the 30th separate mechanized brigade and the brothers of the Hero express their sincere condolences to his relatives and friends. Revenge will be inevitable," the message reads.

The press center of the General Staff also confirms the previous information about the person killed.

"According to preliminary data, the deceased is a serviceman of the 30th separate mechanized brigade named after Prince Kostiantyn Ostrozky (Operational Command "North" Ground Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine) Tymofii Mykolaiovych Shadura," the message says.

"The shooting of an unarmed prisoner is a cynical and brazen disregard for the norms of international humanitarian law and the customs of war. This is what worthless murderers do, but not soldiers. The Russian occupiers have once again testified that their main goal in Ukraine is only the brutal extermination of Ukrainians. The identity of a courageous Ukrainian soldier has already been established. The final answer will be given by appropriate examinations. Not a single death of our warrior will go unpunished.
But we will do it in a legal and fair way - on the battlefield, in court, or in an international tribunal. With a cool head, with observance of the rules of war, and with honor, we will definitely take revenge for everyone!" added the General Staff.

As reported, footage of Russian invaders shooting a Ukrainian soldier after his phrase "Glory to Ukraine" appeared on the network. Where and when the video was shot is still unknown.

On March 6, the Verkhovna Rada Commissioner for Human Rights, Dmytro Lubinets, sent a video of the shooting of a captured Ukrainian serviceman by Russian invaders to Ukraine's international partners and fellow ombudsmen as an example of yet another Russian war crime. Source: https://censor.net/en/p3404165

[Jimbuna]

This week, Poland will send 10 Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine, - Ministry of Defense

Polish Defense Minister Mariusz Blaszczak confirmed that 10 of the promised 14 German-made Leopard 2 tanks will arrive in Ukraine in the coming days.

This is reported by Censor.NET with reference to Sky News.

"Four tanks are already in Ukraine, 10 more will go to Ukraine this week," he said.

It was previously reported that Poland will soon hand over 60 PT-91 tanks - a modernized version of the T-72M - to Ukraine. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3404201

Belarusian dictator Lukashenko called Zelensky names and gave him "challenge"

Belarusian dictator Oleksandr Lukashenko criticized President Zelensky and said that he asked for "a non-aggression pact".

This is reported by Censor.NET with reference to BelTA.

He was commenting on the explosions at the "Machulyshchi" airfield.

"I used to think that Ukraine needed peace, that Zelensky was rooting for his people. President Zelensky is just a nit. Just a nit! Such operations are not carried out without coordination with the head of the country and the commander-in-chief. I am telling you this as the president," Lukashenko said.

According to the self-proclaimed "president," Zelensky is allegedly "running around Belarus, sending people and asking" him "to conclude a non-aggression pact."

"To which I said: 'We are not going to attack.' - 'No, let's sign a treaty under the auspices of the United Nations that you will not attack us.' You heard all these statements of mine. And at this time ... Well, the challenge is over," added Lukashenko. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3404204

Exports from European Union to Russia fell to 11-year low

In 2022, the European Union reduced its exports of goods to Russia by more than a third due to its invasion of Ukraine - to a minimum since 2012.

This follows from Eurostat data, Censor.NET with reference to Radio Liberty.

The export of goods from the EU to Russia amounted to 55.2 billion euros (in 2012, its value was twice as high), having decreased by 38% over the year.

Exports of equipment and vehicles fell the most - by 59%, and other industrial goods - by 39%. This became a serious problem for Russian business, and the Central Bank of Russia found out. At the same time, the export of food and beverages remained unchanged.

At the same time, imports from Russia to the EU amounted to 203.4 billion euros, having increased by 24% over the year and almost reaching their maximum value (2012 - 203.6 billion euros). Import of energy carriers increased the most - by 42%. It was reported that on the eve of the oil sanctions, the EU countries sharply increased the supply of oil, and the import of Russian liquefied gas increased significantly.

At the same time, Eurostat notes that, compared to March 2022, in December, when the oil sanctions came into effect, total imports from Russia decreased by 53%.

During the year, 2.9 thousand Russian organizations were sanctioned, writes the Russian publication Kommersant. Import restrictions have become a key problem for Russian business: foreign companies refuse to supply raw materials, components, spare parts and equipment.

After the Russian invasion of Ukraine, more than 1,200 organizations closed down their activities in Russia, of which 519 left the country completely.

In 2022, the trade turnover of Russia and its main trading partner - China - reached a record level. Exports from China to Russia increased by 12.8%, reaching 76.1 billion dollars. Imports from Russia to China grew by 43.4%, amounting to 114.2 billion dollars. A significant part of it was energy carriers, which, as traders reported, Russia sold at a discount of up to 30%. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3404216

[Skybird]

Der Tagesspiegel summarizes a new report by the NYT on the Nordstream pipeline:
-------------------------
US intelligence findings: pro-Ukrainian group may have blown up Nord Stream pipelines

As reported by the New York Times with reference to U.S. officials, there are first concrete clues about the perpetrators of the attacks on natural gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea. But much remains unclear.

As reported by the "New York Times" with reference to U.S. officials, there are for the first time clues as to who could have perpetrated the attacks on the Nord Stream pipelines. According to the report, a pro-Ukrainian group could be responsible. The U.S. officials are said to be familiar with relevant intelligence information.

As the "NYT" journalists point out, there are no indications that the attack was ordered by the government in Kiev or officials in Ukraine. So far, investigators around the world are in the dark about who might have commissioned and carried out the attacks. While Western governments have been reticent to assign blame, Moscow has blamed the U.S. Washington rejected the accusations.

As reported by the NYT, the group is said to be opponents of Russian President Vladimir Putin. How exactly the group was composed and who financed or commissioned it is not clear from the intelligence information. It is also unclear exactly where U.S. intelligence obtained the information. It is also unclear how valid the information is. Final conclusions can therefore not be drawn from the information, the "NYT" journalists emphasize.

The U.S. officials assume that the perpetrators have Ukrainian, Russian or both citizenships. British or U.S. citizens were not involved, according to the report.

The information, they said, was the first hot lead to emerge from investigations by various Western intelligence agencies. However, it was unclear how long further investigations could take, leading to a definite assessment of how the crime took place. The Europeans were informed of the new findings, the NYT said.

The report confirms what the "Washington Post" already reported shortly before Christmas, citing an anonymous source: "There is no evidence at this point that Russia is behind the sabotage."

Severe damage and several underwater leaks had been discovered on the two Nord Stream 1 pipes and one Nord Stream 2 pipe in the Baltic Sea following explosions in late September. According to findings so far, at least two detonations had occurred, resulting in four leaks.

The leaks in the pipelines leading from Russia to Germany are located near the Baltic Sea island of Bornholm, partly in Danish and partly in Swedish waters. Enormous amounts of gas leaked for days. The EU, NATO and security circles, among others, immediately spoke of sabotage as the cause of the explosions.

[Dargo]

Deutsche Welle:
Ukrainian top generals have vowed to continue to defend the contended eastern city of Bakhmut (https://www.dw.com/en/bakhmut-what-will-be-the-outcome-of-the-battle/a-64882799) amid reports suggesting that Russia is inching closer to capturing it.
After months of fighting in and around Bakhmut, Russian forces remain adamant about capturing the city, which would be their first significant battlefield victory in some six months.
Western strategists and officials suggest a Russian occupation of the city would be of more symbolic than strategic value.
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, however, said control of Bakhmut would allow Moscow's forces to mount further attacks deeper inside Ukraine.
"The city is an important hub for defending Ukrainian troops in the Donbas. Taking it under control will allow further offensive actions to be conducted deep into Ukraine's defensive lines," he said.
Reports from the battlefield suggest that Ukrainian troops have recently been reinforcing positions west of the city, apparently preparing to withdraw.
However, in his nightly address on Monday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he held discussions with top generals and they agreed "not to withdraw."
"The command unanimously supported this position. There were no other positions. I told the commander-in-chief to find the appropriate forces to help our guys in Bakhmut," Zelenskyy said.
The battle has drained both sides' artillery reserves, with thousands of shells fired daily.
----------------------

It makes sense to defend Bachmut:
1. It binds Russian forces and attrites them drastically. For as long as the Russian losses are dysproportionally bigger than the Ukrianian losses, it makes sense to continue doing that.
2. It leaves the Russians distracted while the Ukrainians collect forces elsewhere in preparation of an own offensive south of Bachmut.
3. It buys time for Ukraine.
4. It gives Russia the time to let its conficts in leadership simmering on and developing further.
5. It protects urban settlement areas west of Bachmut, and leaves Ukrainian artillery in reach of eastern supply lines of the Russians that run in North-Southern direction, east of Bachmut. That extends these supply lines, forcing the Russians to invest more time.
6. I thinders the Russians to take positions for artillery from where they could strike deep into the third - and last - defence line of the ukrainians.

Bachmut may not have a value on the operational level as many Western analysts claim, but I strongly think on the tactical and strategic level it has. Questioning the above reasons may come from trying to use standards from peacetime-thinking for assessing the needs of war.To me, Bachmut is pretty much an Ukrainian deception that prepares the offensive they plan. We will see when the Western tanks have arrived and the according batallion(s) have been formed up.NATO estimates Russia lost 5 times more soldiers in Bakhmut than Ukraine NATO intelligence estimates that for every Ukrainian soldier killed defending Bakhmut, Russian forces have lost at least five, a military official with the North Atlantic alliance told CNN on Monday.

The official cautioned the five to one ratio was an informed estimate based on intelligence. The official spoke to CNN on the condition they remain anonymous because they are not allowed to discuss this intelligence. Despite the favorable ratio, they also said Ukraine was suffering significant losses defending the city. Ukrainian officials have repeatedly claimed they were inflicting heavy losses on Russia as Moscow tried to take Bakhmut.

“Our defenders inflicted significant losses on the enemy, destroyed a large number of vehicles, forced Wagner's best assault units to fight and reduced the enemy's offensive potential,” Colonel-General Oleksandr Syrskyi, commander of the Ukraine’s land forces said after a visit to Bakhmut on Sunday. The Institute for the Study of War also said Russia’s efforts to capture Bakhmut had significantly deteriorated its capacity for additional offensives. “The Russian military will likely struggle to maintain any subsequent offensive operations for some months, giving Ukraine a chance to seize the initiative;” it said on Monday. https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-03-06-23/h_265c92682c57b8228fbbf082fb3b6888

[Jimbuna]

Putin starts new offensives and continues missile attacks, NATO’s response is to help Ukraine to win, - Stoltenberg

NATO allies will provide Ukraine with everything it needs to defeat the Russian invaders.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said this in Brussels at a press conference following a meeting with Albanian President Bayram Begai, Censor.NET reports with reference to Ukrinform.

"We just discussed Russia's war against Ukraine. President Putin is launching new offensives and continuing missile attacks. Our response is to continue to give Ukraine everything it needs to win. Allies are increasing their unprecedented support, and I welcome the commitment of such assistance from Albania We should continue our assistance as long as it is necessary," the head of the Alliance said.

He noted that Albania plays a key role in maintaining stability and cooperation in the Western Balkans region, which is strategically important for NATO. The Alliance will continue its peacekeeping mission in Kosovo and will contribute to the continuation of the dialogue between Pristina and Belgrade on the normalization of relations, which is taking place under the auspices of the EU.

It will be recalled that on March 7, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg will begin a visit to Sweden, which presides over the EU. He will take part in an informal meeting of defense ministers of the European Union. The main topic of this forum will be the acceleration of the provision of military aid to Ukraine from the EU countries for the realization of the right to self-defense against Russian aggression. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3404242

During storming of Bakhmut, Russia lost 20,000 to 30,000 invaders, - Guardian

According to The Guardian, Russia lost 20,000 to 30,000 people during the attempt to capture Bakhmut.

As Censor.NET informs about this with reference to the LIGA.

Western official sources, speaking on condition of anonymity, told The Guardian's chief military correspondent, Dan Sabbagh, that they estimate Russian forces lost between 20,000 and 30,000 in the attempt to capture Bakhmut, with a kill-to-wound ratio "worse than one to three".

The journalist notes that he was not informed of the data on the losses of Bakhmut's Ukrainian defenders, they only said that they were "smaller", but at the same time "other sources say about five Russians for one Ukrainian and even more".

The Guardian's source believes that the battle for Bakhmut "may well last another month", but "the Ukrainians may decide to leave within a week." Source: https://censor.net/en/n3404261

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CCB_L9ayodg

[Skybird]

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/07/us/politics/nord-stream-pipeline-sabotage-ukraine.html


Hmmm. I definitely put a tracker on this story as it moves around on my radar screen. So far I hold myself back from any "ifs" and speculations.

[les green01]

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/07/us/politics/nord-stream-pipeline-sabotage-ukraine.html


Hmmm. I definitely put a tracker on this story as it moves around on my radar screen. So far I hold myself back from any "ifs" and speculations.

don't know how reliable the times is or the official personally i'm still leaning towards the ruskies if you didnt know the locations of the pipes you be mowing the lawn a lot trying to find them subs not cheap buying or operating them.

[Skybird]

Later yesterday German media sources said the findings of the NYT also are confirmed by investigations by a network of German brodcasting stations and newspaper that either ran their investigation parrallel to those of the NYT, or the NYT was part of that network. That was not clear for me.



Means: whatever it is what they say now, its not just the Times saying it.



I rule out nothing and see nothing as confirmed. I am that open that I even do not rule out that Scholz' latest Blitz visit in the White House only served the purpose to coordinate with Biden a scenario like claiming that the Ukraine is behind this pipeline assault - all just to construct a case that allows to withdraw support from them without loosing too much face. I dont say it has been like this, its just that I do not trust politicians, that I consider every government to be capable of anything and being one of the coldest of all monsters, and that I am indeed not ruling out anything or take anything for granted. So far my most probable scenario was: the Russians, and this all could be a false flag operation by them to lay foul traces to blame Kyiv, or that it is internal Russian opposition to Putin, or Ukrainian "private" action without knowledge by Kyiv.



If in the forseeable future we see sudden disruptions in supplying Ukraine - then it gets dubious and very suspicous. It could mean that the US laid wrong traces to have an option to pull out - or that the ukraine indeed was behind the attack on the pipeline. In which case it would be perfectly understandable and legitimate if Germany slams both feet onto the breaks and pulls out in full. Thats why I gave the ukrainian responsibility the most unlikely probability after the attacks: they have too much to loose.



Finally, who can tell for sure what kind of published information these days really is unmanipulated and authentic anymore...?


So many "ifs", so many possibilities...

[Rockstar]

don't know how reliable the times is or the official personally i'm still leaning towards the ruskies if you didnt know the locations of the pipes you be mowing the lawn a lot trying to find them subs not cheap buying or operating them.

As for who did it. I’m still going with the idea it was any one of those who didn’t want to see Nord Stream built to begin with or see strengthening ties between Germans and Russians again. Which pretty much accounts for almost everyone in Europe and the United States. From there it can be narrowed down to who was capable of pulling it off. The U.S., Brits, Danes, Swedes, Norway, Poland. Maybe France but they have more than enough domestic problems to contend with.

[Jimbuna]

Ukraine denies involvement in Nord Stream pipeline blasts

Ukraine has denied any involvement in September's attack on the Nord Stream pipelines, which were built to carry Russian natural gas to Germany.

The denial follows a report from the New York Times, which cites anonymous US intelligence officials who suggest a pro-Ukrainian group was to blame.

Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to the Ukrainian president, said Ukraine "was absolutely not involved".

Moscow questioned how the US could make assumptions without an investigation.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov called the report a "co-ordinated fake news media campaign" and told the state news agency Ria-Novosti those who attacked the pipeline "clearly... want to divert attention."

Russia has blamed the West for the explosions and called on the UN Security Council to independently investigate them.

German media say investigators believe they have identified the boat used to plant the explosives.

Russian gas deliveries had been suspended before the blasts. Russia shut down the Nord Stream 1 pipeline in August last year, saying it needed maintenance. Nord Stream 2 had never been put into service.

The exact cause of the 26 September blasts that hit the natural gas pipelines is unknown, but it is widely believed they were attacked.

Nato and Western leaders have stopped short of directly accusing Russia of attacking its own pipelines, although the EU has previously said Russia uses its gas pipelines as a weapon against the West.

On Tuesday, the New York Times reported that new intelligence reviewed by US officials suggested that a pro-Ukrainian group had carried out the attack on the Nord Stream pipelines.

Citing anonymous US officials, the report said there was no evidence that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky or his top lieutenants were involved in the operation.

The US newspaper reported that the officials declined to disclose the nature of the intelligence, how it was obtained or "any details of the strength of the evidence it contains".

It added: "Officials who have reviewed the intelligence said they believed the saboteurs were most likely Ukrainian or Russian nationals, or some combination of the two."

Responding to the New York Times report, Mr Podolyak added that Kyiv had no information about what had happened.

Also on Tuesday, German newspaper Die Zeit reported that German authorities had made a breakthrough in their investigation into the cause of the attacks.

According to joint research published by the paper and other German media organisations, the boat used to plant the explosives was a yacht hired from a firm based in Poland, which reportedly belonged to two Ukrainians. The nationalities of those who carried out the attack were unclear.

Germany's public prosecutor declined to comment on the report but Defence Minister Boris Pistorius warned against jumping to conclusions. It could be a false-flag operation aimed at pinning the blame on pro-Ukrainian groups, he told German radio: "The likelihood of one [theory] or the other is just as high."

At least 50m (164ft) of the underwater Nord Stream 1 pipeline bringing Russian gas to Germany is thought to have been destroyed by September's blast.

Danish police believe "powerful explosions" blew four holes in the pipe and its newer twin, Nord Stream 2.

German, Danish and Swedish authorities have all been investigating the incident.

Mr Peskov said Nord Stream shareholder countries should insist on an urgent, transparent investigation.

"We are still not allowed in the investigation," he said. "Only a few days ago we received notes to that effect from the Danes and Swedes. This whole thing is not just weird. It reeks of a heinous crime."

For decades, Russia supplied huge amounts of natural gas to Western Europe. But after the war in Ukraine began in February of last year, most EU countries drastically reduced their reliance on Russian energy.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64877979

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aac7z5sgTxU

[Jimbuna]

Biden and Macron discussed support for Ukraine

US President Joe Biden and French President Emmanuel Macron discussed support for Ukraine and challenges posed by China during a telephone conversation.

This was reported in the White House, Censor.NET informs

"Both leaders discussed their support for Ukraine, including their commitment to continue providing security assistance to Ukraine and to exact reparations from Russia for aggression," the report said.

Biden and Macron also talked about cooperation between the US and France in the Indo-Pacific region and joint efforts to respond to challenges posed by China to the rules-based world order. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3404345

Switzerland opposes the export of weapons to Ukraine, - President Berset

On the sidelines of meetings at the United Nations, Swiss President Alain Berse said that his country, as before, opposes arms exports to war-torn Ukraine.

This is reported by Censor.NET with reference to European Pravda.

"Discussion about the export of arms, armaments... as long as we have (our) legislative framework in Switzerland, this is impossible," said Berset, who currently serves as the country's president on a rotating basis for one year.

Switzerland prohibits the re-export of Swiss weapons to countries at war, but the country's long tradition of neutrality has been debated since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

"For the government and for the Federal Council, we must, and we want, to support this legal framework and work within this legal framework," he said.

His comments came after Berlin asked Switzerland in late February to allow German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall to buy old Swiss Leopard tanks, with guarantees that they would not be transferred to Ukraine.

Despite pressure from Kyiv and its allies, Switzerland has so far refused to allow countries that own Swiss-made weapons to re-export them to Ukraine and has so far rejected direct requests from Germany, Spain, and Denmark.

Several initiatives to loosen re-export rules are under consideration in parliament, but any decision is likely to be months away.

Berse, who met in New York with the head of the UN Antonio Guterres just before the Secretary General's trip to Ukraine, noted that the Swiss parliament "has many opportunities to change laws."

"If the parliament agrees to change this legal framework, then we will work in the context of this new legal framework, but we will also need time," he said.

But, he emphasized, "exceptions cannot be made from the legal framework." Source: https://censor.net/en/n3404349

Russian army faced dilemma: where to try to advance - British intelligence

The occupying troops of the Russian Federation have been advancing unsuccessfully in the Vuhledar direction for 3 months, and now the command is solving a dilemma: whether to make another attempt.

This was announced on Twitter by the Ministry of Defense of Great Britain with reference to intelligence data, Censor.NET reports.

It is noted, that on March 4, the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation published a video of the "rare visit to Ukraine by the Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation Serhii Shoigu."

"There is a real possibility that this was partly a response to the recent footage of the owner of the PMC "Wagner" Evgeny Prigozhin visiting his fighters on the front lines," the intelligence said.

At the same time, it is noted that the only Russian field commander shown in the video was Colonel General Rustam Muradov.

"Muradov is responsible for the Vuhledar direction of the Donetsk region, where several assaults have failed over the past three months. Until recently, the Russian command probably viewed the breakthrough in Vuhledar as a key way to achieve an operationally significant breakthrough in Ukraine.

Russian planners likely faced a dilemma: whether to attempt another assault on Vuhledar or maintain intense fighting further north from Bakhmut and Kreminna," British intelligence concluded. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3404350