Here we go again-Ukraine once again [Archive] - Page 42

Jimbuna

03-08-23, 08:40 AM

Ukraine is building up forces for offensive, - Economist

Almost a third of the Ukrainian army will soon have weapons according to NATO standards.

As reported by Censor.NET, this is stated in The Economist's article "Ukraine Builds Up Forces for Offensive".

"In December, America and Great Britain realized that a protracted war was not in the interests of the West. In addition, Russia turned out to be even weaker than previously thought," the authors noted.

The turning point occurred on January 20 at the eighth meeting of the Contact Group on Defense of Ukraine, the publication writes. There, the allies agreed to arm Ukraine.

Journalists note that the pace of arms arrival to Ukraine has turned "from a trickle into a stream."

"Of all the military aid promised by the Pentagon since the beginning of the war, 40% - more than 8 billion dollars - arrived in the three months after December 9. A European defense official says the arms shipments agreed to in Germany in January alone account for two-thirds of the total sent to Ukraine in all of 2022. ... The American package includes, for example, armored bridge-laying equipment, which will be vital for any offensive in the south or east," the article says.

As a result, the publication notes, "the Ukrainian army is being transformed" and almost a third of the Ukrainian army will soon have weapons according to NATO standards.

If at the end of last year, the ratio of Ukrainian and Western weapons was five to one, then as aid arrives, it is expected to drop to five to two, the authors say. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3404379

Western intelligence has known name of Ukrainian sponsor of Nord Stream bombing for several months - Times

The name of a Ukrainian - a private sponsor who allegedly financed the sabotage of Russian gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea - was known to Western intelligence circles for months. But they deliberately decided not to disclose it to protect Ukraine.

The British publication The Times writes about this, Censor.NET reports with reference to European Pravda.

According to the publication, already a week after the explosions on the Nord Streams, the employees of the unnamed Scandinavian delegation in Brussels received intelligence information that the Americans, Russians, or Poles were not behind the explosions, but a private initiative from Ukraine. Diplomats were told that this information would not be made public.

північний
The name of a Ukrainian - a private sponsor who allegedly financed the sabotage of Russian gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea - was known to Western intelligence circles for months. But they deliberately decided not to disclose it to protect Ukraine.

The British publication The Times writes about this, Censor.NET reports with reference to European Pravda.

According to the publication, already a week after the explosions on the Nord Streams, the employees of the unnamed Scandinavian delegation in Brussels received intelligence information that the Americans, Russians, or Poles were not behind the explosions, but a private initiative from Ukraine. Diplomats were told that this information would not be made public.
Read more: Germany has no evidence that Russia is behind explosions on "Nord Streams", - Prosecutor General Frank

As the publication writes, the name of the private sponsor of the sabotage - an unnamed Ukrainian - is not connected with the government of President Zelensky.

This is how the publication explains why they decided to hide the name of the Ukrainian sponsor:

"Nato officials apparently wanted to save Ukraine from a public spat with Germany, which was delaying the delivery of vital military aid, including Leopard 2 tanks and IRIS-T air defense systems. This is quite fair - they probably knew who was responsible before the presidential administration or the Ministry of Defense in Kyiv, who were stunned by the report and stubbornly deny their involvement," the publication said.

The newspaper notes that the "influential figure" who financed the operation had no intention of strengthening the position of critics of the German arms supply, who are putting pressure on Olaf Scholz's government.

The newspaper notes that the complex operation involved the involvement of a yacht, elite divers, forged passports, and the purchase of charges of cumulative explosives, available only to the gas and oil industry under a special license and for a lot of money.

"His name will definitely come out, especially if you consider that he left a kind of business card," the publication summarizes.

It will be recalled that on Tuesday, the authoritative American liberal publication The New York Times published an article with reference to sources and intelligence data, which tend to believe that non-governmental groups, which could include Russians and Ukrainians, are behind the explosion of the Nord Stream gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea.

And according to German media, the investigation in Germany has identified a vessel that was used to sabotage the Russian Nord Stream gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea in the fall of 2022 and believes that it is somehow connected to Ukraine.

Mykhailo Podolyak, the adviser to the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, said that Ukraine was not involved in the explosions on the Russian gas pipelines "Nord Stream" and had no information about any pro-Ukrainian agents who could have done it. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3404392

Leopard 2 from Germany and Portugal will arrive in Ukraine already this month, - Pistorius

Leopard 2A6 main battle tanks promised by Germany and Portugal will be delivered to Ukraine by the end of March.

This was stated by the Minister of Defense of Germany, Boris Pistorius, Censor.NET reports with reference to the EP.

"I can tell you that I have just learned that 18 German Leopard 2A6 tanks and three Portuguese tanks may arrive in Ukraine this month," he said on the sidelines of a meeting of EU defense ministers in Sweden.

The tanks will arrive in the country with trained crews, and then they can go to the front.

It was previously reported that Portugal will repair and send three Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine in March. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3404400

Zaluzhny did not fall into Russia’s trap in Bakhmut and did not begin to spend reserves of AFU, - The Economist

The Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Valery Zaluzhny, did not fall into the trap of the Russians in Bakhmut and did not burn reserves for the offensive.

The Economist writes about this with reference to sources, Censor.NET reports with reference to Liga.net.

The publication writes that Russia's offensive, which began at the end of January, was partly intended to force Ukraine to use reserves, which would greatly complicate a future counteroffensive.

It is noted that the battle for Bakhmut resulted in significantly greater losses for the Russians than for the Ukrainians.

"And what is even more important: General Zaluzhny avoided an obvious trap," the article says.

Instead of throwing significant reserves into Bakhmut, the general sent troops abroad for training in Western technology. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3404407

Jimbuna

03-08-23, 09:14 AM

Iran secretly handed Russia hundreds of thousands of shells, - Sky News

Iran secretly supplied Russia with hundreds of thousands of bullets, rockets and mortar shells for the war against Ukraine.

As reported by Censor.NET with reference to Sky News.

According to the publication's source, two Russian-flagged cargo ships left an Iranian port in January, heading to Russia via the Caspian Sea. They carried approximately 100 million bullets and about 300 thousand shells. It is reported that the ships also had ammunition for MLRS, mortars, and machine guns. It is noted that the Russian Federation paid for the ammunition in cash.

The publication's source also reported that the two cargo ships, which probably took part in the transportation of ammunition from Iran to Russia, are named Musa Jalil and Begey. Both sail under the Russian flag.

One of the ships reportedly left Iran on or about January 10, and the other on or about January 12. According to the source, both ships were transporting about 200 transport containers filled with weapons. Investigations by Sky News' data and forensics department confirmed the general claim of the ships moving, although the dates varied slightly. Journalists were unable to independently check what exactly the ships were transporting.

The marine tracker MarineTraffic recorded two ships in the Iranian port of Amirabad in the Caspian Sea on January 9. Satellite images from the next day showed at least one of the vessels still in port. According to marine tracking data, the Musa Jalil left the port around 10:00 a.m. local time on January 10 and the Begey on the same day. On January 12, both ships stopped off the coast of Turkmenistan for several days. The reason for the stop is unknown. The ships then crossed the Caspian Sea and arrived in the Russian port of Astrakhan on January 27. According to tracking data, they remained in port for several days before leaving on February 3.

The security source did not confirm the name of the port in Iran from which the two ships left, nor the port in Russia where they arrived. However, it confirmed that the ships were heading to Russia via the Caspian Sea.

"Iran sent two cargo ships to the war zone in Ukraine, carrying approximately 200 new transport containers containing ammunition for Russian military operations in Ukraine," the source said.

According to sources, on board the ships were:

approximately 100 million bullets of various sizes used by the occupiers in pistols, assault rifles, and machine guns;

grenades for grenade launchers;

anti-tank missiles and mortar shells of various sizes;

artillery rockets;
approximately 10,000 body armour and helmets.

Also remind, that earlier it was reported that Russia is afraid to buy Iranian ballistic missiles because in this case, the USA threatens to provide Ukraine with ATACMS. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3404406

Skybird

03-08-23, 10:48 AM

https://www.dw.com/en/nord-stream-german-authorities-searched-ship-for-explosives/a-64915970

Jimbuna

03-08-23, 11:58 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mTtXfwa7lcg

Jimbuna

03-08-23, 12:14 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Emx8CVEz9U

Aktungbby

03-08-23, 12:24 PM

"Iran sent two cargo ships to the war zone in Ukraine, carrying approximately 200 new transport containers containing ammunition for Russian military operations in Ukraine," the source saidIs the Geneva Convention being adhered to at all? :hmmm:

Jimbuna

03-08-23, 12:41 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f_o7jwv4a7w

Jimbuna

03-08-23, 01:28 PM

Is the Geneva Convention being adhered to at all? :hmmm:

With regard to Ukraine I'd like to think so but who can say for certain and with regard to Russia I would say definitely not.

August

03-09-23, 12:45 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wXKUNc9yI2A

Jimbuna

03-09-23, 06:56 AM

Pentagon doesn’t want to share evidence of Russian atrocities amid fears international court may target US

The Pentagon is standing in the way of the Biden administration sharing evidence of Russian war crimes in Ukraine with the International Criminal Court in The Hague, fearing that an investigation would risk setting a precedent that could be used to target US officials in the future.

According to reporting from The New York Times, the Department of Defense is the only part of the administration that does not want to share the evidence. The State Department, Justice Department, and intelligence agencies all favour handing evidence over to the court.

The decision about what to do will ultimatley fall to President Joe Biden, who the Times reported has not yet signalled what he plans to do.

The International Criminal Court has been investigating Russia since close to the beginning of its invasion of Ukraine, and the US reportedly has evidence that Russian officials have deliberately targeted civilian infrastructure and planned to abduct thousands of Ukrainian children.

That evidence could prove critical to the court’s investigation. But the US has long been sceptical of cooperating with the court, which was established in the 1998 to investigate genocides and crimes against humanity, out of fears that it could target Americans for their own crimes. Unlike allies like Great Britain, the US has never joined the Court.

Russia’s aggression in Ukraine, however, seems to have changed the calculation for some. In December, Congress voted to amend restrictions on how the US can help the court to allow it to provide assistance regarding potential crimes in Ukraine.

Sen Lindsey Graham of South Carolina told the Times that he’d like to see the administration turn over the evidence and criticised the Department of Defense’s position.

“DOD opposed the legislative change — it passed overwhelmingly — and they are now trying to undermine the letter and spirit of the law,” Mr Graham said. “It seems to me that DOD is the problem child here, and the sooner we can get the information into the hands of the ICC, the better off the world will be.”

There are also those who believe that the US should turn over its evidence and that US officials should be investigated and prosecuted by the Court if they are suspected of having perpetrated war crimes or crimes against humanity.

For the moment, the US is in a tricky position. Previous presidential administrations have argued that the Court should not have the authority to investigate citizens from countries that have not joined it, a stance that would protect US violators of international law, and, in this case, would protect Russian citizens too given that Russia has also declined to join the Court.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/pentagon-doesn-t-want-to-share-evidence-of-russian-atrocities-amid-fears-international-court-may-target-us/ar-AA18ofsR?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=b3329173135f44d09abaa623253f6556&ei=37

Jimbuna

03-09-23, 07:07 AM

Russian air strikes cut power at Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant

By Marita Moloney & Emily McGarvey
BBC News

At least nine people have been killed and power at Europe's largest nuclear plant has been lost after Russia launched missiles across Ukraine.

The attacks hit cities from Kharkiv in the north to Odesa in the south and Zhytomyr in the west.

Buildings and infrastructure were hit in Kharkiv and Odesa, with power blackouts in several areas. Attacks on the capital Kyiv are also reported.

Ukraine said Russia fired 81 missiles, in what is the biggest strike in weeks.

The military claimed it successfully shot down 34 cruise missiles and four of the eight Iranian-made Shahed drones which were fired.

The attacks mark the biggest day of Russian missile strikes on Ukraine since the end of January, when 11 people died after dozens of buildings were struck in several regions.

In Thursday's attacks, at least five people were killed in Lviv in western Ukraine, after a rocket hit their home, the region's governor Maksym Kozytskyi said on Telegram.

Russian shelling killed three people in the southern city of Kherson, where a public transport stop was hit, Ukraine's presidential chief of staff Andriy Yermak said.

While one person died and two others were injured following drone and missile strikes in the Dnipropetrovsk region, according to governor Serhii Lysak.

Nuclear energy operator Energoatom said a strike at the Zaporizhzhia plant meant the "last link" between the facility and the Ukrainian power system was cut off.

For the sixth time since it was taken over by Russia a year ago, the facility is now operating on diesel generators, which have enough supplies to last at least 10 days.

The director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) called for a commitment to protecting the safety of the plant, saying he was "astonished by the complacency" surrounding the successive strikes since the invasion began.

"Each time we are rolling a dice. And if we allow this to continue time after time then one day our luck will run out," Rafael Grossi said.

Russia-installed officials in the Moscow-controlled part of Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia region said the halt in electricity supplies to the power station from Ukrainian-held territory was "a provocation".

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said it was "a difficult night", after Russia resumed its "wretched tactics".

He said energy systems were being restored and all services were working after the "massive" rocket attack struck critical infrastructure and residential buildings.

In Kyiv, emergency services are at the scenes of blasts in western and southern districts of the capital where the mayor, Vitaly Klitschko, said explosions had taken place.

Mr Klitschko said cars were burning in the courtyard of one residential building and he urged people to stay in shelters. Much of the city has been left without electricity, with four in 10 people without power, he added.

A mass missile attack struck an energy facility in the port city of Odesa, triggering power cuts, its governor Maksym Marchenko said. Residential areas were also hit but no casualties were reported, he added.

"About 15" strikes hit Kharkiv city and region, with "critical infrastructure facilities" and a residential building targeted, regional administration chief Oleg Synegubov said.

Other regions hit include Vynnytsia and Rivne in the west, and Dnipro and Poltava in the centre of the country.

Russian President Vladimir Putin launched his invasion just over a year ago. Since then tens of thousands of combatants and civilians have been killed or injured and millions of Ukrainians became refugees.

The US Director of National Intelligence, Avril Haines, suggested on Wednesday that President Putin might be planning to drag out the war for years but that Russia was not strong enough to launch major new offensives this year.

She said the war in Ukraine had become a "grinding attritional war in which neither side has a definitive military advantage".

"We do not foresee the Russian military recovering enough this year to make major territorial gains, but Putin most likely calculates the time works in his favour, and that prolonging the war including with potential pauses in the fighting may be his best remaining pathway to eventually securing Russia's strategic interests in Ukraine, even if it takes years," she said.

Ms Haines said Russia might turn to defending the territories it now occupies, adding that it would need additional "mandatory mobilization and third-party ammunition sources" to sustain even its level of operations in Ukraine.

Ukraine's military says it has pushed back intense Russian attacks on the embattled eastern city of Bakhmut despite Russian forces claiming to have taken control of its eastern half.

Moscow has been trying to take Bakhmut for months, as both sides suffer heavy losses in a grinding war of attrition.

"The enemy continued its attacks and has shown no sign of a let-up in storming the city of Bakhmut," the general staff of the Ukrainian armed forces said. "Our defenders repelled attacks on Bakhmut and on surrounding communities."

Between 20,000 and 30,000 Russian troops have been killed or wounded in the battle for the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut since it began last summer, Western officials say. The figures cannot be verified independently.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64897888

Jimbuna

03-09-23, 08:07 AM

Putin's plot to decimate Wagner troops in Bakhmut devastation 'exposed' by expert

Vladimir Putin's military forces may be focussing their attacks on the city of Bakhmut, in eastern Ukraine, in a bid to decimate Wagner Group mercenaries fighting in the region, an expert has claimed. The owner of Russia's Wagner Group military contractor claimed Wednesday that his troops have extended their gains in the Ukrainian stronghold of Bakhmut, but it remained unclear how long the fight might go on.

The battle for the city the Ukrainians have dubbed "fortress Bakhmut" has become emblematic of the way each side has tried to wear down the other.

Russian forces must go through Bakhmut to push deeper into parts of the Donetsk province they do not yet control, though Western officials say that capture of the city is unlikely to change the course of the war.

The battle for Bakhmut has lasted six months and reduced the city with a pre-war population of more than 70,000 to a smouldering wasteland. It's not clear which side has paid a higher price.

But according to Justin Bronk, a research fellow at London's Royal United Services Institute, the obsession with the smilingly non-strategic city by Russian forces may be explained with Putin's plans to politically eliminate Wagner's chief Yevgeny Prigozhin.

Writing for the Daily Mail, he said: "These losses, combined with significant shortages of artillery ammunition facing Russian forces as a whole, have led to suggestions that the Russian Army is deliberately limiting support to Wager so that its forces are ultimately used up in grinding combat at Bakhmut.

"This would leave the group, and Prigozhin himself, as potentially less of a political threat to the regular Russian military leadership.

"On the other hand, a victory at Bakhmut that is demonstrably won by mostly Wagner forces in spite of apparently limited Russian military support could have political significance within the Russian system that outweighs the actual battlefield importance of the city."

Prigozhin, whose troops have spearheaded the fight in Bakhmut, said they have taken full control of all districts east of the Bakhmutka River that crosses the city. The city's center lies west of the river.

Neither Russian nor Ukrainian officials commented on Prigozhin's claim. The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think-tank that closely monitors the fighting, said Russian forces were likely in control in the areas cited by Prigozhin following a Ukrainian withdrawal.

Russian troops have enveloped the city from three sides, leaving only a narrow corridor leading west. The only highway west has been targeted by Russian artillery fire, forcing Ukrainian defenders to rely increasingly on country roads, which are hard to use before the muddy ground dries.

Zelensky vowed Monday not to retreat from Bakhmut after chairing a meeting with his top generals.

Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu said Tuesday that seizing the city would allow Russia to press its offensive further into the Donetsk region, one of the four Ukrainian regions that Moscow illegally annexed in September.

In a blustery video statement recorded near a World War II monument in Bakhmut, Prigozhin echoed that rationale saying the prospective Russian push would make "the entire world shudder."

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg acknowledged that the Russians could seize the city soon. "What we see is that Russia is throwing in more troops, more forces, and what Russia lacks in quality they try to make up in quantity," he told reporters on the sidelines of an EU defence ministers meeting in Stockholm.

"They have suffered big losses, but at the same time we cannot rule out that Bakhmut may eventually fall in the coming days."

But like other Western officials, he played down the significance of Bakhmut's potential capture, arguing that this "does not necessarily reflect any turning point of the war, and it just highlights that we should not underestimate Russia."
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/putin-s-plot-to-decimate-wagner-troops-in-bakhmut-devastation-exposed-by-expert/ar-AA18oWlR?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=af6235c5971c41adb6e761e4ba9a8375&ei=26

Skybird

03-09-23, 08:38 AM

"Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake." - Napoleon Bonaparte

... or when he is happily blowing his own head off.

Skybird

03-09-23, 10:43 AM

Russia is capable of continuing its war of aggression in Ukraine for another two years, according to Lithuanian intelligence. "We estimate that the resources Russia has at its disposal today would be sufficient to wage another two years of war with the same intensity as today," said Col. Elegijus Paulavicius of the Baltic EU and NATO country's military intelligence service.

Russia is becoming "increasingly totalitarian" under President Vladimir Putin, the statement added. But the war in Ukraine is undermining "the political and economic foundations of the regime." Failures on the battlefield, further mobilizations and a deterioration of the economic situation could have negative consequences for its stability.

"In the current social and political environment, the most likely alternative to Putin's regime is another authoritarian regime," Lithuanian intelligence wrote. Russia thus "probably remains a threat and source of instability in the region at least in the medium term."

- Die Welt -

Commander Wallace

03-09-23, 12:14 PM

I came across and interesting article.

An extremely alarming call for Putin. The ghost of 1917 appeared in Russia

Wed, March 8, 2023 at 5:54 AM EST

https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/ijnUIligSQ0sRsh39wShKA--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTk2MDtoPTQ4MDtjZj13ZWJw/https://media.zenfs.com/en/the_new_voice_of_ukraine_articles_294/023db50ea9915ddc418e766fdfc49905
Kremlin

The incident in Bryansk which happened last week is a consequence of Putin's attack on Ukraine. Before Russia started this war, none of the Russian nationalists had the determination to take up arms and start fighting, to call for the overthrow of Putin's regime and to seize power by military means.
Read also: Incident in Bryansk Oblast ‘part of transformative processes in Russia,’ Ukrainian intel says (https://english.nv.ua/nation/incident-in-bryansk-oblast-part-of-transformative-processes-in-russia-ukrainian-intel-says-50308001.html)

We remember that this has happened before in Russian history. And this happened in the 20th century, when in 1914 the Russian Empire was one of those that started World War I. And in 1917, a revolution occurred: all over Russia, bands of armed men who participated in the war began to seize power under the leadership of various leaders - leftists, rightists, anarchists, monarchists, and so on. Perhaps history repeats itself, as the classics said, but on a new level.

About the chronology. Let's recall an interesting moment. On Feb. 28 of this year, Putin spoke to the board of the FSB. This is his alma mater, the environment in which he was formed as a personality - KGB, FSB. So: Putin's texts in this case are prepared very carefully, and every word and every instruction is important. This speech was short, but Putin gave it a special emphasis – he even emphasized that the special task of the FSB and units of the FSB border troops is to provide cover and protect the border precisely on the Ukrainian-Russian section. And, probably, here he had in mind the entire length of the border.

And now, a day after these instructions, on March 2, when Putin warned that there could be terrorist attacks, hostage taking, attacks on civilians, on critical infrastructure facilities, events are taking place. And the assessment that the Kremlin gave them through Putin's mouth, that this was a terrorist act, looks like a preparation that was really prepared in advance.

It is important to understand that this assessment is one phenomenon, and what actually happened is another one.
Read also: Russia's second big offensive: What Putin is betting on - a simple explanation (https://english.nv.ua/opinion/russia-s-second-big-offensive-what-putin-is-betting-on-a-simple-explanation-50303240.html)
I have a version that the information was so impressive to the Russian special services that they simply decided to use this blank to impose their version of events and at the same time make everyone forget more quickly what really happened there.

Then Putin said that these are people who set themselves the task of depriving Russia of its historical memory, history, traditions, and language. This list is evidence that the truth is so terrible and unbearable for the Russian authorities that they need to find some excuse, to tell the biggest unimaginable lie. According to Goebbels, when the most incredible lie is told to a society which is policed, under control, where there is a monopoly of power over the sources of information, it will be perceived as the most plausible version.

So they took this terror attack as stock. Perhaps they themselves realized that somewhere there is a ghost of 1917: that there are Russians who are ready to take up arms and provide an example that this government should be overthrown by armed force. They could perceive it as a wake-up call, because I will remind you that until March 2, almost all Russian opposition forces did say that "we will reconcile by peaceful means." There were statements about the environment that "we will federalize" Russia, that there will be a number of states or a number of subjects of the federation or confederation - it doesn't matter.

But no one called to take up arms and overthrow Putin's power by military means. That's exactly what they did on March 2. A little known Russian volunteer corps.
But for the FSB, with its institutional memory that still stretches back to the tsarist guard, it reminded them of the year 1917, when a revolution broke out in Russia during World War I and the Bolsheviks seized power by force of arms. And then Lenin and Trotsky were called agents of German intelligence who want to destroy Russia.This testifies to a huge fright in the FSB.
This testifies to a huge fright in the FSB. They would really like to forget about this incident as soon as possible. Because with their paranoia and persecution mania, they could have thought that if they didn't do it, if they didn't label this incident as terrorism, if they didn't force everyone to forget it faster, then somewhere it might unwittingly cause a counter-reaction in other regions of Russia.

And since the FSB is overextended now by controlling the society, in order not to allow any dissidence, hunting those who are against the war, it may not have the time and thus sleep through any real violent armed actions against state authorities. They are afraid of this most of all now. The Russian "ultra-patriotic community" immediately started chanting that war should be declared - "call a spade a spade, let's declare war." Let's not forget that these are Soviet people, a Soviet type of thinking, formed back in the days of the Soviet Union.

Voenkors, members of the State Duma are preparing a certain media environment in which Putin's words will be heard not sensationally, not radically, but routinely. They are preparing their media environment, society for the fact that Putin can really declare war.

They are preparing people that Putin could say this, announce this, and it would not sound unexpected, radical, not to raise questions in society.
Regarding the war. Let us recall Lenin's article, which he wrote in 1914, where he claimed that the task of the Bolsheviks was to turn this imperialist war into a civil war. And now the FSB, the Kremlin also think, are afraid that this "special military operation" will turn into a special Russian revolution, into a civil war: Russians against foreign Russians, foreign Russians against Russians, poor against the rich, true Russian nationalists against Putinist fascists.

They think (from the point of view of the FSB) that the appearance of this investigation about Putin's palaces, about his wife Kabaeva, his children, his luxurious life on the anniversary of the start of the war and this incident in the Bryansk region, when they called on the Russians to overthrow the Putin regime by armed force, are the links of a chain. To show that Putin is a tsar who is not real, who is incapable, thinks only of himself, cares only about himself, his children are from different women, he is detached from life and is not capable of ruling Russia, that his clique illegally and forcibly keeps Russia under his rule.

And that's why they should be overthrown. Because the king lost his legitimacy, broke down and so on. And they think that this is informational preparation for the beginning of a rebellion or a revolution. And that this incident in the Bryansk region is only the first hint that there really is some attempt, either within the country independently or with the support of foreign special services, to turn the war against Ukraine into a civil war in Russia. This is what they fear.
Read also: Three options for the future of Russia (https://english.nv.ua/opinion/three-options-for-the-future-of-russia-50297050.html)

And that is why they are trying to intercept the information thesis that there will be no civil war, but there will be a real war against Ukraine, against the collective West. That is, efforts will be directed in the informational plane in order to prevent the spread of the thought and idea that in Russia, not a peaceful, but rather an armed revolution and uprising is possible.

Such an idea can provoke a spontaneous involuntary protest in Russia.
There are certain signs of why they are afraid of this, why they are also preparing for it. In February, Rashid Nurgaliev was appointed first deputy secretary of the Security Council of Russia. He is a former interior minister. He was pulled out of some kind of retirement, out of mothballs, for what? It is a signal that there will be a new curator in the domestic power vertical, who ran the Ministry of the Interior at a time when Russia was fighting internal threats, including the Chechen resistance across the country.

So, they also see that there are some real signs that stricter control is needed along the lines of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the FSB inside Russia. The FSB fears that radicalization will affect the most educated, most radical part of Russian society. That it may affect mainly young people or even old people who, being highly educated, will compare Putin's secret railway with another railway.

When was the first railway in Russia built? To Tsarske Selo! Between one tsar's palace in St. Petersburg and another palace in Tsarskoe Selo. Also a special railway. People will draw parallels in Russia between this. We simply do not fully understand this Russian cultural context. But there, about the 20th century, about the tsarist regime, about the revolution, the role of Bolshevism, the role of monarchists, republicans, the 1990s, about the shelling of the parliament - it's all alive. This is all being discussed in certain circles. This is the first point

Secondly: let's not forget that there are still explosions in different areas of Russia. It is not always and only drones, but also human efforts. In the summer of last year, a wave of arson struck military commissariats in various regions across Russia.
Read also: Russia should cease to exist within current borders, says NSDC secretary (https://english.nv.ua/nation/russia-should-cease-to-exist-within-current-borders-says-nsdc-secretary-50288008.html)

In various regions, the FSB reads information about how people violate the draconian measures aimed at suppressing the truth about the war. They see this picture in different regions. They understand that these are signs of a certain protest movement, a certain social environment, which under certain conditions can be radicalized to the extent that people can take up arms. The only question is how they will get these weapons, who will organize them.

And that is why this Russian volunteer corps is an extremely alarming call, in fact a wake-up call for Putin's Russia, which says that dozens of people can appear who can seize power in a separate territory and successfully resist the repressive apparatus in Russia. If this happens in several regions, it will be a total disaster. As soon as such a mutiny or armed action achieves minimal success, it begins to spread on social networks, and then the FSB will be afraid that the domino principle will happen, that this process will start.

And that the first minimal success will encourage other people to take up arms or even without arms to attack the same authorities, the Ministry of Internal Affairs, and seize power. And go all the way to the overthrow of the Putin regime.

That is why they are so scared now. Therefore, they try to use the very first way - to break this topic with information. True, they have a small toolkit, that is, to talk about the war, about something else, so that people do not think about palaces, about a king who is not capable of anything, who is destroying the Russian state. Because the main message is that Putin is not strengthening the Russian state, he is destroying it. In order to not destroy it, it is necessary to destroy him. This may be the theme of the Russian revolution in the 21st century.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/extremely-alarming-call-putin-ghost-105400650.html

Jimbuna

03-09-23, 01:24 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DfMGnGPkU6U

Jimbuna

03-09-23, 01:43 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JZS37kuuelw

Jimbuna

03-09-23, 01:49 PM

Ukraine is becoming "combat laboratory" for testing Iranian weapons, - CNN

Ukraine is becoming a "combat laboratory" for testing Iranian weapons.

As reported by Censor.NET with reference to CNN, this was stated by a high-ranking representative of the US Ministry of Defense.

"Everyone should be prepared for what the threat scenarios will look like when Iran takes the tactics, methods and procedures it learned in Ukraine and starts using these coercive tactics here (in the Middle East. - Ed.)," he said.

The official added that Russia is ready to transfer advanced technology to Iran in order to receive Iranian "lethal aid." Source: https://censor.net/en/n3404686

Slovenian parliament refused to recognize Russia as sponsor of terrorism

The Slovenian parliament’s foreign policy committee has rejected a proposal by the opposition Democratic Party for a resolution that would recognize Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism.

The Democrats who introduced this proposal claimed that by adopting the resolution, Slovenia would condemn Russia's attacks on Ukrainian civilians, civilian buildings and key energy infrastructure facilities, Censor.NET reports with reference to "Euro Integration".

"We will demonstrate our support for the Ukrainian people, who are showing incredible courage in defending their homeland and fighting for the universal values of freedom and democracy, and at the same time condemn the Russian invasion," they said.

But even before the vote in the committee, the ruling coalition opposed it, and the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Slovenia, Tanja Fajon, said that any initiative to add Russia to the list of countries sponsoring terrorism would be "equivalent to punishing the entire Russian people."

Instead, the parliamentary committee unanimously supported a statement condemning the Russian war in Ukraine and calls to continue providing assistance to Kyiv and advocate for a "comprehensive, just and lasting peace."

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Slovenia separately explained that there is no category or list of countries that support terrorism in either European or Slovenian legislation. Relevant resolutions have been adopted by only seven EU member states, and even in the USA, where there are legal grounds to declare states sponsors of terrorism, Russia is not included in this list.

The opposition called the Foreign Ministry's statement "inert," while Democratic MP and former Slovenian Foreign Minister Anje Logar said that diplomatic pressure on Russia should be increased as well as sanctions. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3404702

Russia now has resources to continue intense war for two years, - Lithuanian intelligence

Director of the Second Department of Operational Services at the Ministry of Defense of Lithuania, Elegius Paulaviius, urged not to let down vigilance, as Russia has not yet suffered a setback in the war.

This is reported by Censor.NET with reference to Delfi.

"Despite consistent and comprehensive assistance to Ukraine, we must constantly monitor how this conflict develops. Without a doubt, we want the victory of Ukraine, the defeat of the aggressor, but today we cannot reassure ourselves that Russia is losing the war, that it is weak, that the danger has decreased," Paulavičius emphasized.

He emphasized that "Ukraine has not yet won, and Russia has not been defeated" and added that although the decision to start the war was a strategic mistake of Russia, it has the resources to continue the war.

"The war will cost Moscow dearly. But Russia has occupied and currently controls 1/5 of the territory of Ukraine. It does not seem that it has lost its determination to act further. In addition, Russia has enough resources for a long war," Paulavičius explained.

At the same time, he clarified that Russia now has the resources to continue an intensive war for two years. We are not talking about the quality of resources, but old equipment also causes great damage. And there are more Russian soldiers now than at the beginning of the war.

"That's why comprehensive military, political and economic assistance to Ukraine will remain vital for achieving victory," Paulavičius concluded. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3404711

Jimbuna

03-09-23, 02:04 PM

European Union has included Ukraine in joint gas procurement program, - European Commissioner Simson

The European Commissioner for Energy, Kadri Simson, confirmed that Ukraine is included in the new EU program for the joint purchase of gas.

"We have integrated Ukraine into the joint gas procurement platform, which will provide an additional 2 billion cubic meters of gas," said the European Commissioner during a speech at a meeting of the Commission on Industry, Research and Energy of the European Parliament, Censor.NET reports with reference to LigaBusinessInform.

Joint gas purchases are a new EU tool created to limit spikes in energy prices due to the cessation of supplies from Russia. Now the countries of the European Union will organize joint purchases of gas on a regular basis in order to provide the bloc with a sufficient amount of fuel both for the next heating season and for future ones.

The first tenders for the purchase of gas will be announced in April. The first contracts with suppliers will be signed in June.

There are already proposals from more than 50 companies from all over the world regarding cooperation with the European Union within the framework of the platform. On the European side, industrial companies are ready to participate in joint procurement.

According to the Vice President of the European Commission, Maros Šefković, the total demand of the 27 members of the bloc and three neighboring countries - Ukraine, Moldova, and Serbia - will amount to 24 billion cubic meters per year for the next three years. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3404724

Finland allowed Estonia to re-export 122-mm howitzers and their shells to Ukraine

At a meeting on Wednesday, the Finnish government approved a permit for Estonia to re-export its military equipment and equipment to Ukraine.

The decision concerns the export of 122-mm howitzers D-30 and shells for them. The number of units of both military goods is not specified, Censor.NET reports with reference to "Euro Integration".

"The recipient of the goods is the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Estonia noted that the amount of exported weapons is confidential," the Finnish government said in a decision.

The export is likely to take place as part of a military aid package totaling 113 million euros approved by the Estonian government in January 2023.

It contains "dozens" of 155-mm and 122-mm howitzers, thousands of shells and trucks for their use, more than a hundred Carl-Gustav anti-tank guns and more than a thousand units of ammunition for them.

After that, Estonian Ambassador to Ukraine Kaimo Kuusk emphasized that Tallinn will transfer all available 155 mm howitzers to Kyiv. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3404744

US introduced sanctions against companies from China that supplied Iran with parts for "Shaheds"

The United States has imposed sanctions on a Chinese network of companies that supplied aerospace parts to an Iranian company involved in the production of drones used by Tehran to attack oil tankers and exported to Russia.

This is stated in a statement on the website of the US Ministry of Finance, Censor.NET reports with reference to "Euro Integration".

According to the ministry, the chain, based in China, is responsible for selling and shipping thousands of aerospace components, including components that could be used for UAVs, to the Iran Aircraft Industry Company (HESA).

HESA participated in the production of the Shahed-136 UAV model, which Iran used to attack oil tankers and exported to Russia for the war in Ukraine.

HESA was sanctioned back in 2008 for being owned or controlled by Iran's Ministry of Defense and Rear Support, and for providing support to Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

"Iran is directly involved in the casualties among the Ukrainian civilian population that are the result of Russia's use of Iranian UAVs in Ukraine," said US Deputy Treasury Secretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence Brian Nelson.

"The United States will continue to fight Iran's global procurement networks that supply Russia with deadly UAVs for use in its illegal war in Ukraine," he added. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3404747

Jimbuna

03-09-23, 03:01 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rHomeKv4HVQ

Skybird

03-10-23, 05:50 AM

Sometimes voices can be heard that demand to think about the time after the war, then to get along with Russia again, to reach out to it.

To illustrate what it is that you want to shake hands with, this story from the Frankfurter Allgemeine.

--------------------

Masha paints rockets

In Russia, children are supposed to produce patriotic drawings for the soldiers at the front in class. One girl submits an anti-war drawing. Then the secret service arrives.

Children are also used to justify President Vladimir Putin's "special operation. For example, by making maps and drawings for soldiers at school. Last April, this was also the task of a sixth-grade art class at a school in Yefremov, a small town in the Tula region a good 300 kilometers south of Moscow.

But what the student, Mariya Moskalyova, called Masha, painted did not meet expectations: Her picture shows a Ukrainian flag with the words "Glory to Ukraine" written on it, and next to it a mother with a child. Missiles are flying toward the two from the direction of the Russian tricolor, which reads "No to war." The single father of the girl, Alexei Moskaliev, told journalists that "everything started" with the drawing.

The art teacher went to the principal of the school, who called the police, who asked all the children for their names at the entrance to the school. His daughter knew what it was about, gave a false name and slipped through. The next day, he went to pick up the frightened child from school. Again, the principal called the police.
Proceedings under the new censorship laws

The latter showed up with the equivalent of the youth welfare office, he said. He was shown the drawing, Moskaljow said. He asked what was special about it, saying that his daughter was "against war, against bloodshed". On the same day, a misdemeanor case was opened against him under military censorship laws enacted in early March 2022: The entrepreneur, who raised ornamental birds such as peacocks and pheasants, was charged with pro-Ukrainian comments and Putin caricatures on his social media appearances. Because of the words "Army of Russia. Perpetrators of violence next to us" a fine was imposed on him.

That was just the beginning. Employees of the FSB intelligence agency took the child out of class, the father recounted. He rushed to the school, where the agents told him that he was not raising his daughter "properly," threatening "that she would be taken away from me and I would be put away." The suggestion that "Masha should lead a youth team in support of the Russian troops" he "kindly refused" because the daughter was so busy.

She then stopped going to school, and the father reportedly requested that she be home-schooled. In December, at the girl's former school, children posed with thumbs up in front of the slogans "For Peace - For Russia - For the President," each with a "Z," the main symbol of war. As in many places.

Then, at the end of December, the father and daughter were raided. All savings, computers and telephones were confiscated, the daughter was photographed with her drawing, Moskaljow said. The daughter was sent to a children's home, and the father was interrogated by the FSB. In the process, he reported, his head was banged "against the wall and the floor." He had been asked why part of his savings, $3150, was in this very currency: "Who is your master? Who are you working for?" Then, he said, he was left alone, but Russia's national anthem was played at full volume. He had developed health problems, the FSB called the emergency services, then showed him a social media comment by his daughter asking how much money a month "our boys" were dying for in Ukraine.

A criminal case was opened against Moskaliev for "repeatedly discrediting" the army. He faces up to three years in prison. He was initially released and was able to pick up his daughter. Moskaljow sold his birds, contacted the child's mother, who had been separated from him for a long time and who, according to Moskaljow, had not wanted to take Marija. In the interview with journalists published at the end of February, the father feared that his daughter would be permanently placed in a children's home if he were arrested.

Shortly after, on March 1, he was arrested. The thirteen-year-old stayed behind, then went to a "social rehabilitation center for minors" called "Youth" - and stayed there after a court released her father to house arrest. Now authorities want to limit his parenting rights. An online petition to send the girl home to her father already had nearly 77,000 signatures as of Thursday evening. For Russia, that's a lot.
----------------------

6th class, so the girl's age is around 12.

No, we must not, under no circumstances, reach out to such a Russia, must not shake hands with it. What we must is building a new iron curtain and contain the existential danger that Russia is for all world. We cannot escape to be geograpohical neighbour to this Russia. But we can learn again to be prepared.

But is that really wanted in Europe? Opposite to the media chorus, I have my doubts.

Reece

03-10-23, 07:13 AM

Miserable bastards!! :Kaleun_Mad:

Jimbuna

03-10-23, 07:30 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=993uVdYBD_g

Jimbuna

03-10-23, 07:40 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5gxl_o9Qmsc

Aktungbby

03-10-23, 10:25 AM

/\ too bad Ukrainian missiles cannot target Iranian container ships currently transporting drones/weapons to Russia on the Caspian Sea. WWIII is well under way; with China being the 'big shoe' that has`hasn't dropped' quite yet in "eternal friendship" and neo-commie comeradery!?? The fuse will probably be lit when N.Korea does something rash-nukewise ( think 1914 Sarajevo?) and we respond obliteratingly... forcing Chins's face-saving hand. They're already screaming about US, Australian, Japan, Philippine conspiratical "encirclement and containment" of their South China Sea aspirations, which, like their Tibet takeover in '59, will need to be answered
shortly ...my bet with Jimmy the Greek says civilization ends in 2040.:hmmm: (17 years! I'll be 89...and unable to collect!??:shucks::dead:)

Skybird

03-10-23, 10:41 AM

CPU production.

Jimbuna

03-10-23, 01:47 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8eGPBBuVuSI

Jimbuna

03-10-23, 02:08 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UotELjdGyXs

Skybird

03-11-23, 06:35 AM

FOCUS:
---------------

According to Ukrainian intelligence, the Russian mega-corporation Gazprom is planning to build its own army. This is not the first time that the company has interfered in domestic and foreign affairs. The fact is that Gazprom and the Kremlin have been profiting from each other for years.

The energy giant Gazprom is apparently planning to build its own private volunteer army along the lines of Yevgeny Prigozhin's "Wagner Group" mercenary force. The Ukrainian intelligence service published a document to this effect on Twitter, which is said to substantiate the plans.

It also reveals that Gazprom is to supply Nef with 70 percent of the start-up capital, with the remaining shares to come from the private security firm Staff Centre. The decree is said to have already been signed by Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, according to Ukraine's intelligence service.

Researchers at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have also received information on the creation of such a private army. According to ISW, recruiters of the volunteer army are already in Donetsk, offering willing mercenaries a wage of 400,000 rubles, about 5,000 euros. Additional compensation is said to be available depending on the mission. This, he said, is about twice the salary earned by a mercenary in the "Wagner Group." Thus, Gazprom's blue army would be a direct competitor for Prigozhin's mercenaries.
Gazprom has long been involved in politics

Gazprom itself is one of the Russian companies most affected by the war of aggression against Ukraine. Imports of coal, oil, and gas have been gradually sanctioned by Western countries since the war began. Similarly, several gas storage facilities in the EU have been forcibly nationalized.

However, as the world's largest producer of natural gas and one of the largest state-owned companies, Gazprom remains a major player in Russian politics. The company's close ties to the Russian government and President Vladimir Putin are well documented. Alexei Miller, head of the gas giant, in particular, is considered Putin's personal henchman.

Gazprom has been used repeatedly in the past as an instrument of Russian foreign policy, particularly in its relations with Ukraine and Europe. The company has been repeatedly accused of using its control over natural gas supplies as a political weapon and of playing a key role in the annexation of Crimea in 2014. The company was primarily interested in oil and gas reserves on the peninsula.

But Gazprom has also been able to shape the political landscape internally. In 2001, for example, the corporation took over Russia's most important independent television station, NTW. The rationale: The station had not paid its debts to Gazprom on time. NTW had previously always taken a critical view of Russian politics. After the takeover, all criticism fell silent.

Even after the Russian war of aggression on Ukraine, Gazprom and the Kremlin continue to cooperate. For example, on February 6, Gazprom was empowered to establish its own security company to protect Russian energy infrastructure from attack. ISW reports that the cooperation was related to the Kremlin's efforts to reduce Russia's dependence on Prigozhin's "Wagner Group."

However, exactly how Gazprom's volunteer army will be deployed and how far its influence will extend remains unclear at the moment. So far, the corporation has not officially commented on the creation of its own army.
----------------------------

According to intel from the Baltic states, Russia is prepared and capable of waging the war for at least two more years.

Let's talk about Western public's compliance with support to the Ukraine for two more years... :-? And with the follow-on costs after that war one day has ended...

The policy of the West is such that it allows this extension of the war by shying away from enabling Ukraine to kick much harder and thus throwing the Russians out - which would be the precidintion to shorten the war. The other way to shorten the war would be submission.

Two more years of this war mean also this: even if - a big "if" that is - the Ukraine succeeds and the Russians pull out one day, the Ukraine nevertheless looses. Because then much of it will be destroyed.

Those Western politicians being so endlessly concerned and cautious - acchieve exactly the opposite of what they claim they want to achieve by their concerns and caution. They are feeding a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Dowly

03-11-23, 07:57 AM

In case someone has read about it, our PM flashed the idea of Finland giving old F/A-18C Hornets to Ukraine during her recent visit there.

This idea is wholly her own, the President made a statement about it saying there has been no such talks.

Jimbuna

03-11-23, 02:05 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uCwIVs-FQT4

Jimbuna

03-11-23, 02:10 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YBHRYkA8oHg

Catfish

03-11-23, 04:16 PM

+1 for Claude Juncker :haha:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S5cH2mxoD14

Rockstar

03-11-23, 04:24 PM

^ :har::har::har:

Jimbuna

03-12-23, 05:51 AM

+1 for Claude Juncker :haha:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S5cH2mxoD14

I doubt there'll ever be another like him :)

Jimbuna

03-12-23, 07:12 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qIsgIvFeDMU

Skybird

03-12-23, 07:29 AM

Russia has indirectly threatened Georgia with war. The Kremlin warns the country of a situation similar to the Maidan uprising that occurred in Ukraine in 2014. Thus, if citizens overthrow their government, there could be a declaration of war.

"The protests against the law on 'foreign agents' that have erupted in Tbilisi are leading to calls for the resignation of the government. We recommend the Georgian people to remember a similar situation in Ukraine in 2014 and what it eventually led to!" the Kremlin representation in Crimea tweeted back on March 10.

Protests against “foreign agents" bill, erupted in #Tbilisi (https://twitter.com/hashtag/Tbilisi?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw)🇬🇪, result in demands for the resignation of the government. We recommend to the georgian people to recall a similar situation in Ukraine🇺🇦 in 2014 and what it finally led to!#ThinkTwice (https://twitter.com/hashtag/ThinkTwice?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw) pic.twitter.com/Ju5Y3p8pwh (https://t.co/Ju5Y3p8pwh)
— Russia's MFA in Crimea🇷🇺 (@PMSimferopol) March 10, 2023 (https://twitter.com/PMSimferopol/status/1634111915596173312?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw)

mapuc

03-12-23, 10:41 AM

LOL Leader of the Wagner-group wants to be President of Ukraine.

Must be the Joke of the year.

Head of the Wagner paramilitary group Yevgeny Prigozhin said on Saturday that he intends to run for president of Ukraine in 2024.

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/politics/head-of-wagner-paramilitary-group-says-he-intends-to-run-for-president-in-ukraine/2843138

Markus

Catfish

03-12-23, 01:58 PM

LOL Leader of the Wagner-group wants to be President of Ukraine. [...]
:rotfl2::rotfl2:
Lets's see whether he does not fall out of a window in Moscow first!

Catfish

03-12-23, 02:10 PM

Russia has indirectly threatened Georgia with war. The Kremlin warns the country of a situation similar to the Maidan uprising that occurred in Ukraine in 2014. Thus, if citizens overthrow their government, there could be a declaration of war.

"The protests against the law on 'foreign agents' that have erupted in Tbilisi are leading to calls for the resignation of the government. We recommend the Georgian people to remember a similar situation in Ukraine in 2014 and what it eventually led to!" the Kremlin representation in Crimea tweeted back on March 10.
Lmao! An unashamed threat – seems there never was a better reason to join NATO.
When Georgia and other former soviet countries wanted to become members of NATO some time ago it was France and Germany that placed a veto, to make Russia feel secure.

The uprising in Kyyiv in 2013/14 was a deeply democratic process, all wanted the corruption and russian puppet Yanukovych to go, and they succeeded!
91 percent of the whole of Ukraine were for an independent state, in the Donbas it were 79 percent! They were not hating russians, they wanted to be independent, and free to decide.
It had nothing to do with the US trying to get influence, they were and (are!) just tired to be the playball of other nations.

Catfish

03-12-23, 02:35 PM

Two videos (only in german unfortunately as of yet)

1st one about the Budapest memorandum (nuclear treaty), when Ukraine was promised never to be attacked, when it gave away their nuclear arsenal in 1994. Guaranteed and signed by Russia.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sGeFsymbXH8

2nd one is from historian prof. Gestwa, proving eight theses wrong, that are hip among the right wing and left Putin-supporters.
Excellent explanations and thorough info.
If anyone finds a translation ?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6GqWDhHzRdo

00:00 - Intro - Prof Dr. Klaus Gestwa introduction

01:46 - Thesis 1 - The NATO has threatened Russia, Putin had to defend himself.

06:52 - Thesis 2 - Ukraine historically belongs to Russia.

13:38 - Thesis 3 - No one can say exactly what Putin wants.

18:53 - Thesis 4 - Ukraine is no democratic state, it is being guided by the west and oligarchs.

22:36 - Thesis 5 - Crimea and Donbas belong to Russia historically.

30:17 - Thesis 6 - Who delivers weapons extends the war.

36:56 - Thesis 7 - Russian media do not lie more than western ones.

41:56 - Thesis 8 - Ukraine and the west could already have stopped the war with negotiations.

Nope to all, and obviously so.

Jimbuna

03-12-23, 03:28 PM

Skybird

03-12-23, 03:55 PM

I doubt Putin has the military capability atm.
From Maidan 2014 to assault 2022 it took 8 years.

mapuc

03-12-23, 04:02 PM

From Maidan 2014 to assault 2022 it took 8 years.

Didn't Putin send troops to help/support the areas who had said they wanted independent from Ukraine-Didn't he send these unofficially during year 2014 to 2022 and didn't he send troops to Crimea to annex this ?

Markus

Skybird

03-12-23, 04:14 PM

Skybird

03-12-23, 04:32 PM

Didn't Putin send troops to help/support the areas who had said they wanted independent from Ukraine-Didn't he send these unofficially during year 2014 to 2022 and didn't he send troops to Crimea to annex this ?

Markus
The voted president Yanukovich was elected on his promise to lead Ukraine to the EU. Once he was president he betrayed his voters by suddenly turnign towards Moscow. Provocations took place on the Maidan, snipers shoot around, Ruissian FSB commadoes tried to stir the situation and Yanukovich tried to blame the demonstratzors anbd Wetsern agitators. So, his people chased him away. Crimea, Donbass and Luhansk were and are parts of Ukraine and thus sovereign from Moscow, Russia had no claim to sent troops there. The only oblast in Ukraine where the last censurs from the early 2000-years, 2002 or 2003 I think, showed that only Crimea had a 50+% majpoirty of people originating for Russian roots. Still, the terriotry is not Russia'S share, but Ukraine's.

Watch the secnd video Catfish posted, the man talskl, aboput the claim tha Russian only takes back what is it sown. The Russian narration is a propagandistic nationalistic lie, like the Nazis' claim that the Poles started the war and German border guards only returned fire in self defence. In fact the Nazis shot men and put them into Polish uniforms and presneted these "polish soldiers" as evidence for the attack launched by Poland. Putins claim that the Russians in Ukriane were beign pout in danger by Kyiv and Russia had to rescue them,, is the same sort of lie. The whole narraiton of a "Russki Mir" is a megalomaniac fabulation form a very sick, imperialistic mind, and a distortion of historic truths and facts.

Lavrov recently was laughed in his face by journalists in india when he sat on the stage and seriously claimed that Ukraine had started the war by attacking Russia and that the war was enforced onto Russia. He is either mentally ill or the toxic, foul-smelling pus in the inflamed hemorrhoids in mankinds anus.

A comical Ali, just in Russian, and much less hilarious but dripping with blood.

Skybird

03-12-23, 05:13 PM

Colonel Reisner, ten days ago. In German, but you can switch on bot-translated English subtitles.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yz9Vs0FfpPk

An aside from him made me curious. The man also is historian has a minor in history and has written several books that are listed on Amazon and have all received 4.5-5 stars.

Rockstar

03-12-23, 06:40 PM

Seems the Biden admin is leaking concerns to friendly press outlets. Might indicate they are worried necessity will compel a change of policy. Articles like this attempt to sway public opinion to be prepared for that eventuality.

‘Little fissures’: The U.S.-Ukraine war unity is slowly cracking apart
A tough week for U.S.-Ukraine news reveals an imperfect harmony.

By JONATHAN LEMIRE and ALEXANDER WARD
03/12/2023 07:00 AM EDT

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/03/12/biden-united-states-ukraine-relationship-cracks-00086654?nname=playbook&nid=0000014f-1646-d88f-a1cf-5f46b7bd0000&nrid=00000155-bb1c-dad1-ad7d-fb5cb0bf0000&nlid=630318

The United States and Ukraine have largely been in lockstep since President Joe Biden’s administration pledged support for “as long as it takes” in resisting Moscow’s relentless invasion.

But more than a year into the war, there are growing differences behind the scenes between Washington and Kyiv on war aims, and potential flashpoints loom on how, and when, the conflict will end.

“The administration doesn’t have a clear policy objective and a clear goal. Is it to drag this thing out, which is precisely what Vladimir Putin wants?” said Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Texas), chair of the House Foreign Affairs Committee. “Is it to just give them enough to survive and not to win? I don’t see a policy for victory right now, and if we don’t have that, then what are we doing?”

Publicly, there has been little separation between Biden and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, an alliance on full display last month when the American president made his covert, dramatic visit to Kyiv. But based on conversations with 10 officials, lawmakers and experts, new points of tension are emerging: The sabotage of a natural gas pipeline on the floor of the Atlantic Ocean; the brutal, draining defense of a strategically unimportant Ukrainian city; and a plan to fight for a region where Russian forces have been entrenched for nearly a decade.

Senior administration officials maintain that unity between Washington and Kyiv is tight. But the fractures that have appeared are making it harder to credibly claim there’s little daylight between the U.S. and Ukraine as sunbeams streak through the cracks.

For nine months, Russia has laid siege to Bakhmut, though capturing the southeastern Ukrainian city would do little to alter the trajectory of the war. It has become the focal point of the fight in recent weeks, with troops and prisoners from the mercenary Wagner Group leading the combat against Ukrainian forces. Both sides have suffered heavy losses and reduced the city to smoldering ruins.

Ukraine has dug in, refusing to abandon the ruined city even at tremendous cost.

“Each day of the city’s defense allows us to gain time to prepare reserves and prepare for future offensive operations,” said Col. Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi, the commander of Ukraine’s ground forces. “At the same time, in the battles for this fortress, the enemy loses the most prepared and combat-capable part of his army — Wagner’s assault troops.”

Multiple administration officials have begun worrying that Ukraine is expending so much manpower and ammunition in Bakhmut that it could sap their ability to mount a major counteroffensive in the spring.

“I certainly don’t want to discount the tremendous work that the Ukrainians’ soldiers and leaders have put into defending Bakhmut — but I think it’s more of a symbolic value than it is a strategic and operational value,” said Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin.

Kyiv, for now, has ignored Washington’s input.

Meanwhile, an assessment by U.S. intelligence suggested that a “pro-Ukraine group” was responsible for the destruction of the Nord Stream natural gas pipelines last fall, shedding light on a great mystery. The new intelligence, first reported by The New York Times, was short on details but appeared to knock down a theory that Moscow was responsible for sabotaging the pipelines that delivered Russian gas to Europe.

Intelligence analysts do not believe Zelenskyy or his aides were involved in the sabotage, but the Biden administration has signaled to Kyiv — much like it did when a car bomb in Moscow killed the daughter of a prominent Russian nationalist last year — that certain acts of violence outside of Ukraine’s borders will not be tolerated.

There has also been, at times, frustration about Washington’s delivery of weapons to Ukraine. The United States has, by far, sent the most weapons and equipment to the front, but Kyiv has always looked ahead for the next set of supplies. Though most in the administration have been understanding about Kyiv’s desperation to defend itself, there have been grumblings about the constant requests and, at times, Zelenskyy not showing appropriate gratitude, according to two White House officials not authorized to speak publicly about private conversations.

“I do think the administration is split, the National Security Council split” on what weapons to send to Ukraine, said McCaul, who’s in constant touch with senior Biden officials. “I talk to a lot of top military brass and they are, in large part, supportive of giving them the ATACMS.”

The administration hasn’t provided those long-range missiles because there are few to spare in America’s own arsenal. There’s also fear that Ukraine might strike faraway Russian targets, potentially escalating the war.

A recent report that the Pentagon was blocking the Biden administration from sharing evidence of possible Russian war crimes with the International Criminal Court also put another dent in the unity narrative. White House officials were dismayed when the New York Times story came out, fearful it would damage the moral case the U.S. has made for supporting Ukraine against Russian war crimes and crimes against humanity.

The administration definitively declared the alliance between the United States — and its allies — and Kyiv remained strong, and that it would last as long as the war raged.

National Security Council spokesperson Adrienne Watson said the White House is “in constant communication with Ukraine as we support their defense of their sovereignty and territorial integrity.” She added that with Putin showing no signs of ceasing his war, “the best thing we can do is to continue to help Ukraine succeed on the battlefield so they can be in the strongest possible position at the negotiating table for when that time comes.”

But the growing disconnects may foreshadow a larger divide over the debate as to how the war will end.

Though Biden has pledged steadfast support, and the coffers remain open for now, the U.S. has been clear with Kyiv that it cannot fund Ukraine indefinitely at this level. Though backing Ukraine has largely been a bipartisan effort, a small but growing number of Republicans have begun to voice skepticism about the use of American treasure to support Kyiv without an end in sight to a distant war.

Among those who have expressed doubt about support for the long haul is House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, who has said that the U.S. would not offer a “blank check” to Ukraine and rejected Zelenskyy’s invitation to travel to Kyiv and learn about the realities of war.

“There is always some friction built in,” said Kurt Volker, a special presidential envoy for Ukraine during the Trump administration. “Zelenskyy also stepped in it a bit with McCarthy — coming across as needing to ‘educate’ him, rather than work with him.”

But many observers credit remarkable transatlantic unity, praising the alliance holding firm despite the economic and political toll the war has taken.

“I see the little fissures, but those have existed with points of disagreement and varied views between the U.S. and Ukraine even before the big February invasion, and since then,” said Shelby Magid, deputy director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center. “Zelenskyy has made pointed remarks before toward the U.S., and the White House has expressed disagreement with him — publicly and privately — on specific aspects, but that hasn’t shifted or eaten away at the overall U.S. support and partnership.”

Points of crisis still hover on the horizon. Zelenskyy’s insistence that all of Ukraine — including Crimea, which has been under Russian control since 2014 — be returned to Ukraine before any peace negotiations begin would only extend the war, U.S. officials believe. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has signaled to Kyiv that Ukraine’s potential recapture of Crimea would be a red line for Putin, possibly leading to a dramatic escalation from Moscow.

Moreover, the Pentagon has consistently expressed doubts whether Ukraine’s forces — despite being armed with sophisticated Western weapons — would be able to dislodge Russia from Crimea, where it has been entrenched for nearly a decade.

For now, Biden continued to stick to his refrain that the United States will leave all decisions about war and peace to Zelenskky. But whispers have begun across Washington as to how tenable that will be as the war grinds on — and another presidential election looms.

“There has never been a war in history without setbacks and challenges,” said Rep. Jason Crow (D-Colo.), an Army veteran and HFAC member. “The question is not whether Ukrainians have setbacks, but how they respond and overcome them. Ukraine will overcome, defeat Russia and remain free.”

Skybird

03-12-23, 07:32 PM

Jimbuna

03-13-23, 06:11 AM

No quarter given by either side apparently.

Heavy losses reported as battle for Bakhmut rages.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64935449

Jimbuna

03-13-23, 06:17 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=79Uo4SwrytY

Skybird

03-13-23, 07:40 AM

No quarter given by either side apparently.
Bachmut obviously is a battle of attrition, and so for Ukraine it only makes sense to stick to Bachmut if it can inflict signficantly higher losses on the Russians than the Russians can inflict on the Ukrainians - because the Russians have the higher reserves in men they can throw into the meat grinder, and sitll more ammo as well.

However, it has also been reported there were differeces between Zelensky and many of his generals, including Salushnyi. One commander was removed when he suggested that Ukraine should fall back to elevated positions west of the city. I hope that this is not some one-stubborn-president-shows-his-super-ego kind of thing. Currently the Ukrainians burn through those units they had once prepared and held back for an offensive against Melitopol. While the Russians used those 30,000 fighters that they were allowed to evacuated unharmed from Cherson to consolidate the defences in the vicinty of Bachmut, and in that region. Two facts that do not spell well for Ukraine.

I really hope that Zelensky does not interfere too much with the military. But I fear that this is the case. And I wish that I am wrong.

Aktungbby

03-13-23, 10:37 AM

This AM's WSJ: Ukraine is making an effort to change Russia"s name to Muscovy! That'll piss off the Kremlin fer sure!:O:

Catfish

03-13-23, 11:45 AM

Bachmut obviously is a battle of attrition, and so for Ukraine it only makes sense to stick to Bachmut if it can inflict signficantly higher losses on the Russians than the Russians can inflict on the Ukrainians - because the Russians have the higher reserves in men they can throw into the meat grinder, and sitll more ammo as well. [...]

The ukrainian holdout in Bakmuth is a strategic rather than a a tactical decision. Ukrainian troops are well dug in and there is not much Putin or this Prigozhin can do other than lose soldiers at a rate of 6 to 1 since weeks.
Even at that rate Russia can win when Putin begins to mobilize in Moscow and St. Petersburg, or even goes for a general mobilisation.
However i guess when he does that, it will be his (personal) end.
Which again will not necessarily end the war. The only thing to end it is either Russia or Ukraine winning.

As Gestwa made clear we should do all to make Ukraine win, any other scenario will lead to Russia's next aggression in a few years.
Maybe Georgia will become a problem, maybe China does something.
I would not build on these ideas, in fact the only outcome that really ends the war in Europe will be a crushing defeat for Russia as a military power.
And i do not mean Ukraine winning back their territory.

B.t.w. russian tank and other "hardware" losses are higher than expected:

"The Russian Army Is Running Out Of T-72 Tanks—And Quickly"

" [...] the Russians had 6,900 old T-72s in storage, around a third of which might’ve been recoverable after decades of corrosive exposure to rain, snow and cycles of hot and cold.

The problem, for the Kremlin, is that @partizan_oleg’s February count was off. Double-checking their numbers on Tuesday, @partizan_oleg realized that, in fact, the Russians probably only have 1,500, not 6,900, old T-72s in storage. “And many of them are probably not in good shape,” "

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/03/12/the-russian-army-is-running-out-of-t-72-tanks-and-quickly/?sh=11f677506099

Jimbuna

03-13-23, 01:20 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bOAO4sNDZUc

Jimbuna

03-13-23, 01:28 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pQxj-gsjdOg

Jimbuna

03-13-23, 01:40 PM

Well then, no surprises here I suppose.

Putin enemy Mikheil Saakashvili is ‘approaching death' after being 'poisoned' in jail.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/putin-enemy-mikheil-saakashvili-is-approaching-death-after-being-poisoned-in-jail/ar-AA18yPzN?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=6201bd2dcd7845c6bf35b947dc6e44d3&ei=12

Skybird

03-13-23, 02:10 PM

The ukrainian holdout in Bakmuth is a strategic rather than a a tactical decision. Ukrainian troops are well dug in and there is not much Putin or this Prigozhin can do other than lose soldiers at a rate of 6 to 1 since weeks.
Even at that rate Russia can win when Putin begins to mobilize in Moscow and St. Petersburg, or even goes for a general mobilisation.
However i guess when he does that, it will be his (personal) end.
Which again will not necessarily end the war. The only thing to end it is either Russia or Ukraine winning.

As Gestwa made clear we should do all to make Ukraine win, any other scenario will lead to Russia's next aggression in a few years.
Maybe Georgia will become a problem, maybe China does something.
I would not build on these ideas, in fact the only outcome that really ends the war in Europe will be a crushing defeat for Russia as a military power.
And i do not mean Ukraine winning back their territory.

B.t.w. russian tank and other "hardware" losses are higher than expected:

"The Russian Army Is Running Out Of T-72 Tanks—And Quickly"

" [...] the Russians had 6,900 old T-72s in storage, around a third of which might’ve been recoverable after decades of corrosive exposure to rain, snow and cycles of hot and cold.

The problem, for the Kremlin, is that @partizan_oleg’s February count was off. Double-checking their numbers on Tuesday, @partizan_oleg realized that, in fact, the Russians probably only have 1,500, not 6,900, old T-72s in storage. “And many of them are probably not in good shape,” "

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/03/12/the-russian-army-is-running-out-of-t-72-tanks-and-quickly/?sh=11f677506099
I never said that all there 10-12 thosuand tanks mothballed are T-72 (they arent, there also are many T-64, T-62 and even T-55), or can all be revived. I said that even if these wrecks must be cannibalised and see 5 tanks used to form one operational and rusty tracked chassis with a cannon turret on it, this nevertheless means they can build for example 2000-2500 tanks from these 10-12 thousand - and these 2000 tanks then must be individually taken down by the ukrainians.

I am in line with Reisner on these number things. And what did he pointed out recently?: We reequip and rebuild the Ukrainian army practically form scratch for the third time currently. We have no more T-72 left to give them, and we do not have sufficient Western tanks in Europe to share with them. And the Ukrainians are running the 16th mobilization wave now. The 16th. In past months they called up men age 50-60. Now even young men who are more child than young man, down to age 16. The Russians however have not even started to fully mobilize!

We all made the mistake to have overestimated the Russians capability. From that error we have fallen to another mistake: now underestimating them.

That offensive the Ukrainians have announced, better runs marvelously well. Else it might have been the last glorious coup they tried in this war. If they get served their rear ends back to them on a silver plate, Western mood and sympathy and motivation to continue with military aid will vanish. It already does right now, but in that case the moving out of Westewrn aid will dramatically accelerate.

The Russians have adapted, and learned, and in many things they perform better than our media report. They now are deep dug in, and have a very nasty artillery wall before their trenches.

This offensive will most likely not go as well as the one at Cherson and Charkiv. The planned third offensive for Melitopol was stopped back then: due to too high losses already back then. The Russian lines now are much stronger than in autumn.

Jimbuna

03-13-23, 02:26 PM

^ Ys, admittedly it is not currently looking good for Ukraine.

Dargo

03-13-23, 02:33 PM

I never said that all there 10-12 thosuand tanks mothballed are T-72, or can all be revived. I said that even if these wrecks must be cannibalised and see 5 tanks used to form one operaiton arusty tracked chasis with a cannon turret on it, this nevertehless emans they cna build for exmaple 2000-2500 tanks from these 10-12 thousand - and these 2000 tanks then must be individually taken down by the ukrainians.

I am in line with Reisner on these number things. And what did he pointed out recently?: We reequip and rebuild the Ukrainian army practically form scratch for the third time currently. We have no more T-72 left to give them, and we do not have sufficient Western tanks inEurope to share with them. And the Ukrainians are running the 16th mobization wave now. The 16th. In past months they called up men age 50-60. Now even young men who are more child than young man, down to age 16. The Russians however have not even started to fully mobilize!

We all made the mistake to have overestimated the Russians capability. From that error we have fallen to another mistake: now underestimating them.

That offensive the Ukrainians have announced better runs marvelously well. Else it might have been the last glorious coup they tried in this war. If they get served their rear ends back top them on a silver plate, Western mood and sympathy and motivation to continue with military aid will vanish. It already does right now, but in that case will dramatically accelerate.

The Russians have adapted, and learned, and in many things they perform better than our media report. They now are deep dug in, and have a very nasty artillery wall before their trenches.

This offensive will most likely not go as well as the one at Cherson and Charkiv. The planned third offensive for Melitopol was stopped back then: due to too high losses already back then.The Russian lines now are much stronger than in autumn.It is more one out of 10 mothballed tanks that are more or less operational, with others lacking critical components: some tanks are even missing their engines. It is not that corruption is a new concept in Russia during the USSR the indifference to common property and petty theft from the workplace, either for personal use or for profit, was high. A line from a popular song, "Everything belongs to the kolkhoz, everything belongs to me" ("всё теперь колхозное, всё теперь моё" / vsyo teperь kolkhoznoe, vsyo teperь moyo), meaning that people on collective farms treasured all common property as their own, was sometimes used ironically to refer to instances of petty theft: "Take from the plant every nail, you are the owner here, not a guest" ("Тащи с завода каждый гвоздь - ты здесь хозяин, а не гость" / taschi s zavoda kazhdyj gvozd' - ty zdes' hozyain, a ne gost'). This has not changed, think it is become a bigger problem since Putin came to power.

Dargo

03-13-23, 02:46 PM

In the news Nov 29, 2016
Russia Preparing to Return 3,000 Older Tanks Into Service
It's a lot less impressive than it sounds.

The Russian government plans to refurbish up to 3,000 T-80 main battle tanks and return them to service with the Russian Army. The move may sound impressive, but it's actually a sign of Russia's diminishing economic and military power. According to the Telegraph, the older T-80 tanks will be taken out of mothballs and modernized to a new T-80BV standard. The work will be done by Omsktransmash, a state-owned tank design and engineering facility in the Siberian city of Omsk. The T-80 main battle tank was originally produced by the Soviet Union between 1976 and 1992. Unlike the USSR's other tank, the T-72, the T-80 was powered by a gas turbine engine. This provided more power than the T-72's diesel engine, but at the expense of high fuel consumption, which stresses supply lines.

Following the breakup of the Soviet Union, Russia inherited the lion's share of the T-80 tanks. But Moscow decided to abandon the T-80 line in favor of the T-72 line, which eventually became the T-90, Russia's current frontline tank. It's supposed to be replaced eventually by the brand-new T-14 Armata. The T-80 is virtually identical to the T-72, aside from an unreliable, fuel-guzzling engine. But that key difference was enough to doom most T-80s to an early retirement. The tanks that will receive upgrades have been sitting around for several years, and the Russian military is not particularly known for carefully mothballing older equipment.

According to Jane's (http://www.janes.com/article/65580/russia-may-upgrade-and-return-t-80bv-tanks-to-service), the T-80BV upgrade will consist of the Sonsa-U fire control system, an updated "energy generator" (whatever that is) and engine starter, and explosive reactive armor. Considering that Russia wanted to improve the T-80 in 2002 with a new main gun, ammunition, and a new fighting compartment for the crew, the BV upgrades are modest indeed. The T-80BVs will still be markedly inferior to NATO tanks like the M1A2 Abrams, Leopard 2A7, and Challenger 2. The Russian government has stated the upgraded T-80BVs "will be suitable for the climatic conditions of the Arctic, the Far East, and Siberia." That's true enough—gas turbine tank engines do better in cold weather than diesel engines. But it's also true that those military districts are relatively quiet areas, with the possible exception of the border with Norway, and a safe distance from NATO armor.

That Russia is even pondering returning the T-80 to service is an indicator of plans gone awry. Russia should be producing more T-14 Armatas rather than dusting off old tanks, but the country's defense budget is set to drop by 12 percent in 2017, a percentage much worse than the 2013 budget sequestration that hobbled the U.S. Department of Defense. While Russia probably will buy the Armata in small numbers to keep the production line open until the economy improves, the lion's share of the "new" Russian tanks for the near future will be old ones.

https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/weapons/a24058/russia-return-older-tanks-into-service/

I did not see that many T-80's in Ukraine, so where (in whose pocket) is that investment gone. Wars are not only won on the battleground, economics is one of its key factor.

Jimbuna

03-14-23, 04:28 AM

It is now being reported that Putin is trying to deliberately expend both elite and convict Wagner forces in Bakhmut in an effort to weaken [Yevgeny] Prigozhin and derail his ambitions for greater influence in the Kremlin.

It can only get better.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/ukraine-russia-news-latest-putin-and-wagner-group-reach-boiling-point-in-bakhmut-rivalry/ar-AA18ASO6?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=c19462a739ac4b0e9df8998890ec8351&ei=10

Skybird

03-14-23, 04:47 AM

In the news Nov 29, 2016
Russia Preparing to Return 3,000 Older Tanks Into Service

It's a lot less impressive than it sounds.

The Russian government plans to refurbish up to 3,000 T-80 main battle tanks and return them to service with the Russian Army. The move may sound impressive, but it's actually a sign of Russia's diminishing economic and military power. According to the Telegraph, the older T-80 tanks will be taken out of mothballs and modernized to a new T-80BV standard. The work will be done by Omsktransmash, a state-owned tank design and engineering facility in the Siberian city of Omsk. The T-80 main battle tank was originally produced by the Soviet Union between 1976 and 1992. Unlike the USSR's other tank, the T-72, the T-80 was powered by a gas turbine engine. This provided more power than the T-72's diesel engine, but at the expense of high fuel consumption, which stresses supply lines.

Following the breakup of the Soviet Union, Russia inherited the lion's share of the T-80 tanks. But Moscow decided to abandon the T-80 line in favor of the T-72 line, which eventually became the T-90, Russia's current frontline tank. It's supposed to be replaced eventually by the brand-new T-14 Armata. The T-80 is virtually identical to the T-72, aside from an unreliable, fuel-guzzling engine. But that key difference was enough to doom most T-80s to an early retirement. The tanks that will receive upgrades have been sitting around for several years, and the Russian military is not particularly known for carefully mothballing older equipment.

According to Jane's (http://www.janes.com/article/65580/russia-may-upgrade-and-return-t-80bv-tanks-to-service), the T-80BV upgrade will consist of the Sonsa-U fire control system, an updated "energy generator" (whatever that is) and engine starter, and explosive reactive armor. Considering that Russia wanted to improve the T-80 in 2002 with a new main gun, ammunition, and a new fighting compartment for the crew, the BV upgrades are modest indeed. The T-80BVs will still be markedly inferior to NATO tanks like the M1A2 Abrams, Leopard 2A7, and Challenger 2. The Russian government has stated the upgraded T-80BVs "will be suitable for the climatic conditions of the Arctic, the Far East, and Siberia." That's true enough—gas turbine tank engines do better in cold weather than diesel engines. But it's also true that those military districts are relatively quiet areas, with the possible exception of the border with Norway, and a safe distance from NATO armor.

That Russia is even pondering returning the T-80 to service is an indicator of plans gone awry. Russia should be producing more T-14 Armatas rather than dusting off old tanks, but the country's defense budget is set to drop by 12 percent in 2017, a percentage much worse than the 2013 budget sequestration that hobbled the U.S. Department of Defense. While Russia probably will buy the Armata in small numbers to keep the production line open until the economy improves, the lion's share of the "new" Russian tanks for the near future will be old ones.

https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/weapons/a24058/russia-return-older-tanks-into-service/

I did not see that many T-80's in Ukraine, so where (in whose pocket) is that investment gone. Wars are not only won on the battleground, economics is one of its key factor.
And if it were T-64, they still would need to be fought down one by one.

Russia also builds new T-90s, with a speed of 20 per week. Their tank factories are on fullscale war production, running 3 shifts per day.

A Javelin that kills one tank is a Javalin that cannot kill another one.

Skybird

03-14-23, 08:31 AM

Es ist nicht zu fassen... 13 months of war, and still no orders placed. Der Spiegel writes:
--------------------------
For months, reports have been circulating about the looming bottlenecks in the supply of ammunition to the Ukrainian armed forces. But in the opinion of the German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall, far too little has happened since then. Company CEO Armin Papperger has now formulated criticism of Kiev's European partner governments - and called for clear announcements and planning certainty. "I need orders," the CEO said in an interview with the Bloomberg news agency. "Without orders, I produce nothing". If there is an acute shortage of ammunition, he said, it "won't be because of the industry."

According to Papperger, Rheinmetall will produce ammunition at only about two-thirds of its capacity this year because of the slow completion of orders. In addition, the amount of ammunition Ukraine has recently asked the European Union for would be difficult to produce, according to the manager. To do so, capacity in Europe would have to be "doubled again."

Rheinmetall plans to increase its ammunition production capacity over the next two years, at its Varpalota site in Hungary and with a new powder plant in Saxony, the CEO added. The company expects the Saxon state government to approve plans for the factory, which would involve an investment of 700 to 800 million euros, in the next few weeks. Due to the sluggish order trend, Rheinmetall has also not yet fully ramped up production of tank shells, which are used in most U.S. and European main battle tanks, Papperger said.
-----------------------

Jimbuna

03-14-23, 09:06 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cDJtwtkVUtE

Jimbuna

03-14-23, 09:19 AM

Poland are stating they can provide about thirty MiG-29 to Ukraine in about four to six weeks time.

Skybird

03-14-23, 11:26 AM

The Ukraine cannot be uninterested in the American elections.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/ron-desantis-says-protecting-ukraine-not-vital-us-interest-rcna74795

Jimbuna

03-14-23, 12:05 PM

JUST IN...

Russian fighter jet collides with US surveillance drone over Black Sea, forcing US to bring down drone, US military says

Dargo

03-14-23, 01:10 PM

JUST IN...

A Russian fighter jet forced down a US Air Force drone over the Black Sea on Tuesday after damaging the propeller of the American MQ-9 Reaper drone, according to the US Air Force.

The Reaper drone and two SU-27 Flanker jets were operating over international waters over the Black Sea when one of the Russian jets intentionally flew in front of and dumped fuel in front of the unmanned drone, according to the official. One of the jets then damaged the propeller of the Reaper, which is mounted on the rear of the drone, the official said. The damage to the propeller forced the US to bring down the Reaper in international waters in the Black Sea.

The incident marks the first time Russian and US military aircraft have come into direct contact since Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine just over a year ago and is likely to increase tensions between the two nations, with the US Air Force calling Russia’s actions “reckless, environmentally unsound and unprofessional.”

“At approximately 7:03 AM (CET), one of the Russian Su-27 aircraft struck the propeller of the MQ-9, causing U.S. forces to have to bring the MQ-9 down in international waters. Several times before the collision, the Su-27s dumped fuel on and flew in front of the MQ-9 in a reckless, environmentally unsound and unprofessional manner. This incident demonstrates a lack of competence in addition to being unsafe and unprofessional,” US Air Force Gen. James B.Hecker, commander, US Air Forces Europe and Air Forces Africa said in the statement.

President Joe Biden was briefed on the incident by national security adviser Jake Sullivan on Tuesday morning, according to National Security Council communications coordinator John Kirby.

Kirby He said it was “not uncommon” for Russian aircraft to intercept US aircraft over the Black Sea, and said there had been other intercepts in recent weeks.

But he said the episode Tuesday was unique in how “unsafe, unprofessional and reckless” the Russian actions were.

CNN has asked the Russian Ministry of Defense for comment.

Russian and US aircraft have operated over the Black Sea during the course of the Ukraine war, but this is the first known such interaction, a potentially dangerous escalation at a critical time in the fighting.

The US has been operating Reaper drones over the Black Sea since before the beginning of the war, using the spy drones to monitor the area. Reaper drones can fly as high as 50,000 feet, according to the Air Force, and they have sensors and capabilities to gather intelligence and perform reconnaissance for extended periods of time, making it an ideal platform to track movements on the battlefield and in the Black Sea. https://edition.cnn.com/2023/03/14/politics/russian-jet-us-drone-black-sea/index.html

Dargo

03-14-23, 01:16 PM

Netherlands will give Ukraine minesweepers and drone detection systems, Dutch defense minister says
The Netherlands will send two minesweepers to Ukraine, along with drone detection radar systems and so-called M3 ferrying and bridge building systems, according to Dutch Defense Minister Kajsa Ollongren.

In a statement Tuesday, the Dutch Defense Ministry outlined its plans to work with Belgium and possibly other allied countries to train Ukrainian forces in the use of the minesweepers.

Supplying minesweepers to Ukraine will “contribute to Black Sea safety, Europe's security and global food security," Ollongren said.

The defense minister spent the past few days in Ukraine visiting the southern cities of Mykolaiv and Odesa alongside her Ukrainian counterpart, Oleksiy Reznikov.

The two ministers discussed the strengthening of coastal defenses, the importance of maritime safety and protecting grain ships, according to the statement.

Ollongren highlighted the efforts of the Ukrainian forces, saying that although the Netherlands can provide Ukraine with “the material,” it is the Ukrainians themselves who are fighting “for every centimeter of [their] land.” https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-03-14-23/h_ccc900ddeeb6a9307d8a6b4926e490b4

Commander Wallace

03-14-23, 01:46 PM

JUST IN...
Quote:
Russian fighter jet collides with US surveillance drone over Black Sea, forcing US to bring down drone, US military says

I would love to see the drones set with a proximity fuse to detonate high yield explosives in the event Russian forces or any other hostile actor intercepts the drones and comes in close proximity. Perhaps arm them with chaff and or infrared flare dispensers so the intakes of the Russian aircraft can suck them up. Boom !!!! :D Either that or arm them with air to air missiles. Perhaps both.

Jimbuna

03-14-23, 02:07 PM

I would love to see the drones set with a proximity fuse to detonate high yield explosives in the event Russian forces or any other hostile actor intercepts the drones and comes in close proximity. Perhaps arm them with chaff and or infrared flare dispensers so the intakes of the Russian aircraft can suck them up. Boom !!!! :D Either that or arm them with air to air missiles. Perhaps both.

Rgr That :yep:

Jimbuna

03-14-23, 02:10 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4VcJEl_1kGw

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IhdL2eAsRCA

Jimbuna

03-14-23, 02:33 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mbE-IXDA1sU

mapuc

03-14-23, 02:42 PM

Was it on purpose what the Russian did to this Drone ?

How is USA seeing this ?

Markus

Jimbuna

03-14-23, 02:53 PM

I would say it was on purpose and the US are clearly not happy.

Catfish

03-14-23, 03:02 PM

^ Quite obviously.

Skybird

03-14-23, 03:24 PM

What is with the technology aboard the Reaper? Will the US send ships to recover it? Is the technology critically sensitive? I would assume it is?!

Catfish

03-14-23, 03:27 PM

I doubt any US warship is allowed to pass Istanbul for the Black Sea.
But then Bulgaria is a NATO member .. as is Turkey :hmmm:

Skybird

03-14-23, 04:13 PM

Could be a formally civilian ship, protected by either NATO units in the vicinty that you mentioned, or "contract workers" not wearing US military uniforms but civilian clothing.

One could also airlift a navy ship and bypass the Dardanelles at 10000 feet :D

Have there been no US ships in the Black Sea before the war broke out? I seem to recall there were some minor exercises, but I am not certain. Or the talk was about planning them.

Catfish

03-14-23, 04:16 PM

I did not post in the joke thread because it is real.
In Russia, a man faces prison for a joke about Putin and Shoigu.

"Vasily Bolshakov, a resident of the Ryazan region, wrote on the social network: "I haven't read really funny jokes in a long time:
— Sergey, why are we retreating from Kherson?
"Volodya, you yourself ordered the liberation of Ukraine from fascists and Nazis..."

A criminal case was opened against him under the article on repeated discrediting of the Russian army (Article 280.3 of the Criminal Code)

August

03-14-23, 08:55 PM

Jimbuna

03-15-23, 07:12 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hujAju0ETjM

Jimbuna

03-15-23, 07:42 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lJCgD3giJgo

Skybird

03-15-23, 08:04 AM

The Russians use drones, too. ;) Leopards, Challengers, Abrams all are vulnerable to air threats and mines, and ATGMs and artillery. The tanks will become priority targets for the Russians. As the German saying goes: viele Hunde sind des Hasen Tod.

I hope the Ukrainians do not become over-confident with these tanks, thinking they are invulnerable. They are not. None of them.

Jimbuna

03-15-23, 09:42 AM

I think they'll be well aware of the limitations but remain very happy to have better and more modern means available to themselves.

Skybird

03-15-23, 11:11 AM

In WW2, after the Allied invasion in Europe there was an order in place for some time that American Shermans only shall attack a German Tiger if they have a numerical superiority of I think 7:1, or was it 12:1? Lets see how it will be with the Challengers and Leopards.

Problem is, the Ukraine is not too likely to get replacements soon if they loose them. And they will loose some of them. And the more time passes, the more these tanks, like all equipment in war, will be brought down by wear and tear.

--------------------

Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung
Russia wants to find and recover the U.S. drone that crashed in the Black Sea. "I don't know if we will be able to do that. But it has to be done. I hope for success, of course," National Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev told Russian state television on Wednesday. While the U.S. would always stress that it is not a party to the war, the case shows its involvement in the fighting, he said. "This is another confirmation that they are directly involved in these actions, in the war," Patrushev said.

Jimbuna

03-15-23, 11:14 AM

Vladimir Putin is expected to attend the G20 summit in India this September after Kremlin aides cleared the despot's schedule to accommodate for the event.

Jimbuna

03-15-23, 11:28 AM

The Kremlin said on Wednesday that relations with the United States were in a "lamentable state" and at their lowest level, after Washington accused Russia of downing one of its reconnaissance drones over the Black Sea.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/kremlin-relations-with-us-in-dire-state-amid-drone-incident/ar-AA18EiN3?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=4385270f54464c38ae46d2e935c43da7&ei=12

Jimbuna

03-15-23, 11:45 AM

The Russians are going to try and recover whatever is left of the drone but it is in very deep water.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64961958

Catfish

03-15-23, 12:32 PM

I know (and i even have a screenshot from flight radar at this day) the drone was flying in international airspace with its transponder turned on. -> Otherwise it would not have been visible in FR24.
Reapers are flying around the Black Sea since decades, always with their transponder activated.

Russian jets tried to hamper it dropping fuel in its flight path, and then even rammed the drone from behind so its push propeller was damaged in a way the drone had to make an emergency landing in the sea.
All this happening in international airspace and waters.
They could as well have used a missile or some gun with the same effect.

"Unfriendly" does not quite describe this.
Obviously an attempt by the Kremlin to test the response of the United States.
And now Russia wants to retrieve it?

Apart from the US rescuing the drone, I foresee some further US action, preferably not made public.

August

03-15-23, 01:41 PM

I say the next time they try bumping one of our drones out of the sky we should accidentally kamikaze it into the enemy jet and hopefully bring it down. Maybe add a few pounds of explosives in the drone just for effect. Then send them a nice note:

"Oops sorry that you lost your fighter and it's pilot. We tried everything we could to avoid the accident. Here's a bouquet of flowers for the pilots funeral along with our sincere regrets."

Dargo

03-15-23, 01:49 PM

Jimbuna

03-15-23, 02:12 PM

Just checked to find mine still safe in the display cabinet.

https://i.postimg.cc/hGW34c9k/IMG-0644.jpg (https://postimages.org/)
https://i.postimg.cc/s2YHvqmv/IMG-0645.jpg (https://postimages.org/)
https://i.postimg.cc/hjKyxsZM/IMG-0647.jpg (https://postimg.cc/kVhvPQmt)

Jimbuna

03-15-23, 02:23 PM

A Russian aircraft was intercepted by RAF and German fighter jets near Estonian airspace in the first joint exercise between the two Nato allies.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/ukraine-war-live-news-russian-aircraft-intercepted-by-raf-typhoon-and-german-jets-after-drone-crash/ar-AA18DCTy?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=732d6d2efc0b44dd820ff6da9ebaef0e&ei=16

Just a pity we didn't shoot it down :O:

Skybird

03-15-23, 02:43 PM

US TV showed animations of the incident that tell it slightly different than you do, Catfish. The Russian jets seem to repeatedly have approached the drone from underneath and from its rear in sort of fly-bys, and then climbed from under its belly and in front of its nose, while dumping fuel to spread it over it. During one of these manouvers, the russian plane seems to have not kept the safe distance or pulled too early, and thus accidentally got the vertical stabilizer' top into the propeller of the drone that then was located over it.

The drone was said to have successfully deleted all software it had in its electronics active, and to delete all its memories and data, when it became clear that the damaged propeller prevented to manouver the drone. I assume this action was what then inevitably made the drone crashing, since the steering software and evertyhign had been deleted.

Possible also that the drone immedoiately lost steerrign controlled, and went into a fall-down during which the data deletion procedures were initiated.

The russian plane thus probably also was damaged, lightly at least. The top end(s) of its vertical stabilizers probably got more than just scratches if the propeller tried to shredder these top ends. Not that i would shed a tear about it.

So, the Russians wanted to down the drone by dumping fuel on it, maybe hoping it would somehow go up in flames, or the kerosin entering the inside, doing any form of damage, or interacting with the air inlets, maybe destabilizing it by changign the air density around it and reducing it slift when fogging the air with kerosin (no idea I have whether that is physically possible, I imagine this scenario only). But they probably had no intention to collide with the drone, risking their own plane that way.

That all means there is the drone at the bottom of the sea, with all its electronics secrets, but probably no usable software code. I wonder what value, intel-wise, the electronics have without code? Anyone knowing that?

The Black Sea, says Wikipedia, has an average depth of 1250m and at its deepest point is 2200+ m deep. I think stuff has already been extracted from greater depths, or am I wrong?

The US could send a civilian expedition, or ask Romania, Turkey or Bulgaria for assistance.

Turkey I would not ask. Its unhelpful style to owe them a favour with behaviours like their recent ones. Whether Romania or Bulgaria are eager and have the nerves to take on the Russian navy, I have no idea.

Skybird

03-15-23, 02:53 PM

Just a pity we didn't shoot it down :O:I think the German and the British pilots just mistook the Russian plane for each other but were too excited to find the trigger. :O:

Jimbuna

03-15-23, 03:00 PM

Ukraine has invited Florida Governor Ron DeSantis to visit, after the Republican dismissed the Russian invasion as a "territorial dispute".

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64880145

Catfish

03-16-23, 04:10 AM

Just checked to find mine still safe in the display cabinet.
https://i.postimg.cc/hGW34c9k/IMG-0644.jpg (https://postimages.org/)]
:up:
Just keep your russian fighter models away from it ..

Reece

03-16-23, 04:22 AM

Oh he burnt those!! :hmmm::salute:

Jimbuna

03-16-23, 05:56 AM

:up:
Just keep your russian fighter models away from it ..

No need, the entire collection theme is Post WWII British :03:

Jimbuna

03-16-23, 06:00 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=01PJ3DfcjMI

Jimbuna

03-16-23, 06:40 AM

Entire Russian spy network dismantled in Poland

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64975200

Skybird

03-16-23, 07:03 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=01PJ3DfcjMI
So, very different than the illustration they showed on US TV and that I referred to earlier. The plane passed the drone not underneath, but above.

The manouver I rate as an act of war, not different than if they had fired an missile, because the intention in both cases is the same: destruction of the drone.

Exocet25fr

03-16-23, 07:27 AM

Bakhmut situation map (15 March)

https://static16.tgcnt.ru/posts/_0/62/62da465f02d0b612db1ea7aba583c19a.jpg

Skybird

03-16-23, 07:30 AM

Its being reported that Poland will deliver 4 Fulcrums in the next days.

Skybird

03-16-23, 07:56 AM

Correction, Poland will deliver 12 Mig-29, but 4 of these already in the coming days .

Jimbuna

03-16-23, 03:20 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I9GQ9GNa0BU

Jimbuna

03-16-23, 03:20 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iYqK3UZmcpg

Skybird

03-17-23, 05:50 AM

After Poland, Slovakia also wants to send MiG-29 fighter jets to Ukraine. This was decided by his government, Prime Minister Eduard Heger announced. He thus confirmed an announcement made by Defense Minister Jaroslav Nad last week.

The fleet of a total of eleven Soviet-designed aircraft had been decommissioned last summer. Most of the aircraft are not in an operational condition. In addition to the operational jets, the others are to be handed over to Ukraine for the supply of spare parts.

(DW)

Its not clear whether formally the Poles would need Germany'S agreement to deliver their Migs, since they got Mig-29ers from Germany. If Berlin says No, I hope Poland goes ahead without agreement. This delivery, if it takes place finally, could indicate the brekaing of the last taboo, a taboo that is pretty pointless by now anyway. I earlier said I would not expect Western fighters in Ukraine before near the end of the year, and Q4 or early next year might be still a realistic guess of when the first Falcons (most likely this type) will arrive.

Skybird

03-17-23, 06:13 AM

Neue Zürcher Zeitung:

-----------------------------------

In an interview, former NATO supreme commander James Stavridis is critical of the reluctant Western arms deliveries to Ukraine. He considers the risk of a Russian nuclear strike to be low. Rather, Putin could find himself forced to negotiate as early as this year.

The confrontation between a Russian fighter jet and an American drone has caused nervousness this week. How concerned are you that incidents of this nature will one day lead to the expansion of the Ukraine war?

We cannot underestimate this. World War I began with the supposedly incidental assassination of the heir to the Austrian throne. Four years later, the Habsburg Empire had disappeared, as had the Ottoman Empire and the Tsarist Empire. Fortunately, today we have much better communications and intelligence, there are forums for discussion such as the UN, in short, many advantages that our ancestors could not take advantage of. Still, there is concern that a single incident can start a conflagration.

There is also the fact that those pilots over the Black Sea or the drone operators controlling the device from afar are not mature statesmen, but often young, hot-headed people who - on both sides - want to stand up for their country. We should go back to the security rules we had in the Cold War: The "Incidents at Sea" agreement at the time set minimum distances between Soviet and American jets, or forbade us on warships to fake an attack, such as by opening torpedo bays.

U.S. military reconnaissance with drones is an important support for Ukraine. But when it comes to supplying weapons, the picture looks mixed: Ukraine receives chunks of just enough to keep it from going under. What do you think of this approach?

Continuing such a phased approach makes no sense. We have been too slow and too hesitant. The best example is battle tanks: we have finally decided to make appropriate deliveries, but now it will take months before they will be in position for an offensive. Next are combat aircraft; again, governments say, "We're uncomfortable delivering such weapons - what happens if the Ukrainians fly them into Russian airspace?"

You see it differently?

This problem is easily solvable. We just need to tell the Ukrainians that the first time they send a plane into Russian airspace, all Western aid stops. End of story. The Ukrainians do not have the slightest leeway. So my opinion is: we should supply fighter jets - Polish MiG-29s, American F-16s, maybe A-10 aircraft to fight ground targets. We will get to that point. We used to say no to Stingers anti-aircraft missiles, later to Himars missile launchers, then to tanks, and now to fighter jets. We will get to yes, but the sooner, the better Ukraine's situation will be once it comes to negotiations.

The counter-argument is that the delivery of fighter jets will lead to escalation.

The U.S. has always been very cautious, taking a gradual approach, taking into account the risk of escalation - and has achieved nothing by doing so. Putin is throwing everything he has into this war. He is playing with all his might. Therefore, it is time for us to go full bore as well. With one big exception: no "boots on the ground" [no deployment of Western soldiers] and no NATO aircraft in Ukrainian airspace. Let's let the Ukrainians do it! Let's give them the means to do it.

How great is the danger that Putin will one day respond by using tactical nuclear bombs?

Of course, this is on everyone's mind. I don't think Putin will do that - for two reasons. One is military: it doesn't do him much good. If he were to use a nuke on any corner of the 800-kilometer front, the effect would be very limited. The Ukrainians are nowhere concentrated enough for him to achieve victory in one fell swoop . . .

. . . but he could theoretically deploy dozens of them.

True, but that brings us to the second reason: If Putin did that, global public opinion would immediately turn against him. India, Pakistan, South Africa, Nigeria, Brazil, the countries of the "global South," have so far stayed on the sidelines. Putin knows that these countries will not support a regime that uses dozens of nuclear bombs. I don't think Putin is crazy. China has also told him clearly that no nuclear war should be waged. President Xi is very cleverly going out of his way to try to dissuade Putin from making such a decision. I think the probability of nuclear weapons use is less than 5 percent. It is not comfortable, but it is very unlikely.

And what if Putin does turn a deaf ear to all the warnings?

In such a scenario, NATO would immediately declare a no-fly zone over Ukraine and deploy troops, I think. If I were still NATO commander-in-chief, I would already be drawing up such plans. Because at such a point, there would be nothing left to lose and we would have to stop Putin. The world would then make clear: Enough, Putin!

Regardless of such a horror scenario, when will the moment be reached militarily when the two sides begin negotiations?

One can imagine the situation as if two clocks were ticking: on the one hand, that of Putin, who is "burning up" troops and equipment. He may be able to keep this up for another year or two, but that clock is ticking pretty fast. Selenski's clock ticks differently. It depends on how long the West provides military equipment and finances. At some point, the two clocks will chime at the same time; that is the moment when you can possibly convince the warring parties to sit down at the negotiating table and come to a cease-fire. I would say that is six to nine months away.

Not years?

I don't think so. Putin doesn't have that kind of staying power anymore because of all the casualties. Russia has already lost 200,000 soldiers to death or injury, 800,000 men have fled abroad. He will come under pressure to agree to a deal. What it will look like, we don't know. But our job in the West is to make sure that Selenski has the means to get into the best possible negotiating position.

Does that mean that the Ukrainians absolutely must carry out a successful counteroffensive beforehand?

Yes, for example, by advancing directly through the Russian-occupied land corridor in the south, cutting it and destroying Russian logistics. Crimea would then be difficult for the Russians to defend. In this situation, Selensky could say, let's talk. And it could be the moment when Putin sees the need for it. I don't think that's years away - simply because neither side has the resources to go on for years.

And if the counteroffensive fails - has Ukraine missed its last chance?

I wouldn't say so. Ukraine will have some good assets when the Leopard tanks arrive in the spring, the British Challengers and not much later the American Abrams. In my opinion, the U.S. will add to this by supplying Atacms missiles with a range of 160 kilometers, plus cruise missiles that the Ukrainians can use to sink Black Sea Fleet ships. But if their offensive through the land corridor fails, which is possible, they will regroup and, as we Americans say, get another bite at the apple.

As NATO supreme commander, you had frequent contact with Russian officers. Against the background of this war, how do you judge their quality today?

I was shocked by the incompetence of the generals who designed this miserable attack plan. It suffered, first, from the fact that it fragmented the Russian forces, on six to eight different axes of attack. Second, the terrible reconnaissance work. The Russians obviously thought they would be greeted with vodka. Instead, they were welcomed with Molotov cocktails. Third, the breathtakingly incompetent logistics of the Russians. Compared to what modern armies do in this area, the Russians performed shockingly poorly. Ultimately, this is because Putin did the worst thing a leader can do: He isolated himself - from competent people, from reality - and acted on false information.

How likely do you think it is that Putin will still manage to achieve some kind of victory - some result that will make him stronger than before the war?

I rule that out. The world has watched Russia's troops struggle so desperately. Even in Brazil, Nigeria or Pakistan, you could tell what was propaganda and what was reality. Russia has lost any chance of being perceived as a capable military power. It is now forced to tie its future to China. But I don't think President Xi will announce big military aid next week when he visits Moscow. He is too smart for that.
---------------------------------

Jimbuna

03-17-23, 07:08 AM

Ukraine will remember who backed us - foreign minister

Countries that "mistreated Ukraine" will be held to account after the war ends, Ukraine's Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba has warned.

In a BBC interview he said the choice every nation made following Russia's full-scale invasion will be "taken into account in building future relations".

He also warned delays of Western weapon deliveries would cost Ukrainian lives.

"If one delivery is postponed for one day, it means that someone is going to die on the frontline," he said.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64976079

I can understand the position they are in but does this type of rhetoric help their cause?

Jimbuna

03-17-23, 07:26 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vf-VYseuhow

Jimbuna

03-17-23, 07:54 AM

USA sent new reconnaissance drone to Black Sea

The United States sent an RQ-4 Global Hawk drone to the Black Sea.

The drone took off from the Sigonella Air Base near the Italian city of Catania. For some time it was in the airspace of Romania, and now it is flying over the Black Sea.

As of 1:00 p.m., 14,800 users are following the movement of the American RQ-4 Global Hawk drone on the Flightradar24 website.

Skybird

03-17-23, 09:00 AM

I can understand the position they are in but does this type of rhetoric help their cause?
They have started with such rhetorics just recently, and not earlier. A sign how tensed their situation has turned out to become, I assume.

kateSZ

03-17-23, 09:22 AM

If the information you provided is accurate, it would suggest that the United States has deployed a new unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) to conduct reconnaissance activities in the Black Sea region. Such activities are not uncommon, as many countries use drones for intelligence gathering and surveillance purposes. It is important to note that the deployment of military assets in a region can potentially escalate tensions, and it is crucial that any such actions are taken with caution and with the aim of promoting regional stability and security.

ET2SN

03-17-23, 11:52 AM

Some new reports of an FSB office building catching fire in Rostov-on-Don.
The building was supposedly storing ammo for the front.

:hmmm:

Jimbuna

03-17-23, 12:04 PM

An arrest warrant is issued against Russian President Vladimir Putin by the International Criminal Court in the Hague.

It accuses him of being responsible for war crimes in Ukraine, including the unlawful deportation of children.

Russia has repeatedly denied that its forces have committed atrocities in Ukraine.

A warrant has also been issued for Russia's commissioner for children's rights.

Russia does not recognise the ICC's jurisdiction and a foreign ministry spokeswoman says its decision's has "no significance"

Russia earlier threatened to destroy any fighter jets given to Ukraine by its allies after two countries promised planes.

Meanwhile, Finland's bid to join the Nato military alliance has finally secured the backing of Turkey's president.

Jimbuna

03-17-23, 12:12 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6lYq-FVTSKM

Catfish

03-17-23, 01:28 PM

The United States sent an RQ-4 Global Hawk drone to the Black Sea.
You can see it on Flightradar24, its transponder is once again on, just like with the other drone that was rammed by Russia.
Being rammed on that flight path I'd say it was an act of war, but what do i know.
Forte10 is currently east of the border of Moldova, but you can see its former flight path.
https://www.flightradar24.com/FORTE10/2f8d2bc8

Catfish

03-17-23, 01:29 PM

Some new reports of an FSB office building catching fire in Rostov-on-Don.
The building was supposedly storing ammo for the front.
:hmmm:
My heart bleeds.

Jimbuna

03-17-23, 01:46 PM

You can see it on Flightradar24, its transponder is once again on, just like with the other drone that was rammed by Russia.
Being rammed on that flight path I'd say it was an act of war, but what do i know.
Forte10 is currently east of the border of Moldova, but you can see its former flight path.
https://www.flightradar24.com/FORTE10/2f8d2bc8

Yeah, I've been looking on there and am wondering if there will be a repeat performance from the pariah.

Catfish

03-17-23, 04:02 PM

I wonder if a drone could down a fighter jet (excited).
Or should a drone be accompanied by NATO planes, i mean it is international airspace? :03:

Manwhile russian propagandist Solovyev suggests creating more private military companies like Wagner and have them attack Berlin, London and other places.
It seems that this Solovyev has lost all hope of getting back his beautiful italian villa at Lake Como…
I wonder who this idiot is? Does he represent anything or did he stand for something before the russian aggression?
Being paid by Putin does some strange things to people :)

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1636435075175727124?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5 Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1636435075175727124%7Ctwgr% 5Ecb7d17af96a1330f7c99ab610c95ee1887f8bbd3%7Ctwcon %5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fs9e.github.io%2Fiframe%2Ftwi tter.min.html1636435075175727124

I say bring it on. We need to finally step in and help the Ukranians.

edit: his last sentence: 'By the way, Scotland will be free' :rotfl2::rotfl2:

Skybird

03-17-23, 04:38 PM

Poland seems in the process of formign a fighter alliance. Washington no doubt nows it.

Poland did not ask and Washington did not inform the Germans. :D

Ooooooh....!

Skybird

03-17-23, 04:42 PM

(Solovjev) I wonder who this idiot is?

The Russian equivalent to Caesar Flickerman, maybe...?

Catfish

03-17-23, 05:07 PM

The Russian equivalent to Caesar Flickerman, maybe...?
"Caesar Flickerman is the host for the Hunger Games. He is famous for turning any conversation around for the positive, and is known to change the color of his lips, hair, and eyelids for each Hunger Games."
I despise the "Hunger Games" and all this HBO crap, but you got a point :D

mapuc

03-17-23, 05:25 PM

Haag have made an arrest warrant issued over war crime allegations against Putin.
What about Zelenskyy, he has committed war crimes too

(This is what many of my Danish friends has been written on their wall throughout the evening.

No doubt cause there's rotten eggs among the officers on both side-I myself are convinced there are a lot more of these on the Russian side.

Markus

Catfish

03-17-23, 05:29 PM

mapuc

03-17-23, 05:38 PM

Where exactly did Zelensky commit a war crime, or even several?

Did he give an order for ten thousands of children to be separated from their parents, deported and displaced?
This is what Nazi Germany did, and Serbia tried to later.

Good question..

I haven't any directly proof. I only know from ready military history that there's always rotten tomatoes on both side in a war.

And as I wrote
"I'm convinced that there are a lot more of these on the Russian side."

Even though I support Ukraine and its people I have difficulty in believing that the entire military machinery is perfect, does not brake any ROE, or not committing the smallest war crime.

Markus

Reece

03-17-23, 05:54 PM

Skybird

03-17-23, 06:55 PM

"Caesar Flickerman is the host for the Hunger Games. He is famous for turning any conversation around for the positive, and is known to change the color of his lips, hair, and eyelids for each Hunger Games."
I despise the "Hunger Games" and all this HBO crap, but you got a point :DStanley Tucci's brilliant portrayal of Caesar Flickerman was primarily that of a die-hard regime loyalist and propagandist who, in the face of inhumanity and cruelty, cynically led the sacrificial lambs to the slaughter and feigned compassion when in reality he was just a murderous pig.

I like the films and the books, a lot. They really struck a chord with me, and I think in some ways our societies are actually slipping in the direction of Panem, generally speaking. When social unrest broke out in Asia, Malaysia I think it was, and the crowds showed the stubborn gesture of defiance of the Panem rebels, the military saw that as so dangerous and potentially threatening that they cracked down on them, ultra-hard even by their already harsh standards. The comparison may not be exact, but the social unrest in the world and the growing alienation between governments and the governed is moving in the direction of the model of civilisation presented in the Panem series - including the role of the media in controlling and calming, entertaining and deceiving the masses.

Skybird

03-17-23, 09:20 PM

The time of disillusionment has come even for Ukraine.

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/national-security-daily/2023/03/14/the-bleak-reality-for-ukrainian-soldiers-00086944

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/03/13/ukraine-casualties-pessimism-ammunition-shortage/

“If you have more resources, you more actively attack,” the senior official said. “If you have fewer resources, you defend more. We’re going to defend. That’s why if you ask me personally, I don’t believe in a big counteroffensive for us. I’d like to believe in it, but I’m looking at the resources and asking, ‘With what?’ Maybe we’ll have some localized breakthroughs.”

“We don’t have the people or weapons,” the senior official added. “And you know the ratio: When you’re on the offensive, you lose twice or three times as many people. We can’t afford to lose that many people.”

[...]

His unit withdrew from Soledar in eastern Ukraine in the winter after being surrounded by Russian forces who later captured the city. Kupol recalled how hundreds of Ukrainian soldiers in units fighting alongside his battalion simply abandoned their positions, even as fighters for Russia’s Wagner mercenary group pressed ahead.

After a year of war, Kupol, a lieutenant colonel, said his battalion is unrecognizable. Of about 500 soldiers, roughly 100 were killed in action and another 400 wounded, leading to complete turnover. Kupol said he was the sole military professional in the battalion, and he described the struggle of leading a unit composed entirely of inexperienced troops.

“I get 100 new soldiers,” Kupol said. “They don’t give me any time to prepare them. They say, ‘Take them into the battle.’ They just drop everything and run. That’s it. Do you understand why? Because the soldier doesn’t shoot. I ask him why, and he says, ‘I’m afraid of the sound of the shot.’ And for some reason, he has never thrown a grenade. … We need NATO instructors in all our training centers, and our instructors need to be sent over there into the trenches. Because they failed in their task.”

He described severe ammunition shortages, including a lack of simple mortar bombs and grenades for U.S.-made MK 19s.

Ukraine has also faced an acute shortage of artillery shells, which Washington and its allies have scrambled to address, with discussions about how to shore up Ukrainian stocks dominating daily meetings on the war at the White House National Security Council. Washington’s efforts have kept Ukraine fighting, but use rates are very high, and scarcity persists.

“You’re on the front line,” Kupol said. “They’re coming toward you, and there’s nothing to shoot with.”

Jimbuna

03-18-23, 06:11 AM

Jimbuna

03-18-23, 06:18 AM

Yeh that quote sort of spoiled it for Ukraine imo, I still back them, but I see that as a threat to any country that does not support Ukraine. :hmmm:
A lot of countries are just plain scared of Russia!! :oops:

Early signs of desperation me thinks :hmmm:

Jimbuna

03-18-23, 06:28 AM

China's lethal aid could prove to be a "game-changer" for Russia in Ukraine, even in small quantities, a US-based expert has warned. Dr Jonathan Ward, founder of Washington-based think tank the Atlas Foundation, has said the West must confront them in both Europe and the South China Sea, while telling Western companies must urgently cut business ties with China before it is too late.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/chinese-lethal-aid-may-prove-game-changer-for-russia-as-west-is-told-to-confront-axis/ar-AA18MAFE?ocid=mailsignout&pc=U591&cvid=389d20c743814013b9553fe0f93e81e1&ei=15

Chinas greatest weakness is its reliance of trade with the west.

Jimbuna

03-18-23, 06:49 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UaBik3nDBdA

Exocet25fr

03-18-23, 07:23 AM

An arrest warrant is issued against Russian President Vladimir Putin by the International Criminal Court in the Hague.:haha:

Winston Churchill (Dresde bombing) ok he is dead!, when for Ukrainian in Dombass, USA in Vietnam, Guantanamo, Iroshima, Nagasaki, Bush in Irak and Israel....:yep:

CPI and OTAN are ridiculous.....

Skybird

03-18-23, 07:44 AM

Nine years of war.

Today marks the ninth anniversary of the occupation of Crimea by fascist Russia in violation of international law.

Jimbuna

03-18-23, 02:05 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cwh1m_SWFqk

Dargo

03-18-23, 02:10 PM

China's greatest weakness is its reliance of trade with the west.With China's economy struggling, Xi wants to prevent the region from aligning too much with the United States on trade and investment restrictions affecting China. Xi Jinping's concern is not Russia or Ukraine but Western Europe, ultimately trying to give the Germans and French the impression that he has given it a chance. For Ukraine, China has long been a potential lifeline with enough influence over Russia to influence the war. Zelensky, encouraged by Washington, spent months trying to hold talks with Xi. He even sent his wife Olena Zelenska to deliver a letter to the Chinese delegation requesting a meeting at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. It is unlikely that China would risk supplying Moscow with arms and ammunition unless the Russian armed forces were on the verge of collapse. Beijing is willing to support Putin, but no more than necessary to help him stay in power and maintain a united front against the West.

Jimbuna

03-18-23, 02:21 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9W_wktjYnsE

Dowly

03-19-23, 05:53 AM

The Finnish volunteer fighter whose AMA I translated in post #10213 (https://www.subsim.com/radioroom/showpost.php?p=2856446&postcount=10213) appears to be back in Ukraine (or he never left, idk).
He posted a photo of him in a hospital, likely having been wounded in the recent mortar attack on a Finnish patrol few days back. He says his family jewels and limbs are all intact, so all is well.

He also mentions he's got engaged to a Ukrainian woman who is in the UKR army and that he plans to stay in Ukraine after the war. :salute:

Skybird

03-19-23, 07:54 AM

^ There must be more things in life than just war. Good luck to them.
------------------------

Why the West is afraid of a Ukrainian victory.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/02/21/west-united-states-europe-ukraine-war-afraid-revolution/

Skybird

03-19-23, 11:36 AM

mapuc

03-19-23, 11:56 AM

I cant help it, I cannot point finger at details but - the man they now photograph and film on Crimea and in Mariupol - that is not Putin. I look at him, and something just is not right. I cant say what it is, but I am certain for my personal view at least. That is not Putin.

I looked at two video clips with Putin the first where he visit Crimea the other where he is visiting occupied Mariupol.

First video - Crimea

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Ikj0Mkx8w0&ab_channel=NBCNews

Second video Occupied Mariupol
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZVpYi1DHTuc&ab_channel=OnDemandNews

His face/head is more round visiting Crimea, while his face is more small visiting Mariupol.

Markus

Dargo

03-19-23, 12:21 PM

I looked at two video clips with Putin the first where he visit Crimea the other where he is visiting occupied Mariupol.

First video - Crimea

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Ikj0Mkx8w0&ab_channel=NBCNews

Second video Occupied Mariupol
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZVpYi1DHTuc&ab_channel=OnDemandNews

His face/head is more round visiting Crimea, while his face is more small visiting Mariupol.

Markuslook at the ears if they are different it's like a fingerprint, each person's ear picture is unique it cannot be repeated.

Jimbuna

03-19-23, 01:43 PM

Putin uses bodyguards, lookalike stand ins and food tasters to foil assassination plots
https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/world-news/putins-bodyguards-stand-ins-tasters-26397324#

https://nypost.com/2022/03/04/heres-how-putin-protects-himself-from-assassins-and-coups/

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11368779/Ukraines-military-chief-claims-Putin-using-THREE-body-doubles-plastic-surgery.html

Jimbuna

03-19-23, 01:48 PM

Cowering Putin orders hundreds of body doubles as he fears war crimes arrest
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/cowering-putin-orders-hundreds-of-body-doubles-as-he-fears-war-crimes-arrest/ar-AA18Oqy9?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=44cf6fe5afe24cb9927ad76baa73e4e4&ei=16

Jimbuna

03-19-23, 01:54 PM

Russia and Ukraine have agreed to extend the grain deal but it is not known for sure how long the deal has been extended for.

Jimbuna

03-19-23, 02:37 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NWYog4yzRuY

Catfish

03-19-23, 03:58 PM

Imagine Putin being arrested in his last battle due to the international arrest warrant
(1:35)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qRxwBb7ev1Y

August

03-19-23, 04:12 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qPhycuLAtaw

Jimbuna

03-20-23, 04:19 AM

Imagine Putin being arrested in his last battle due to the international arrest warrant
(1:35)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qRxwBb7ev1Y

:haha:

Jimbuna

03-20-23, 04:25 AM

Xi Jinping is now on his way to meet the war criminal.

Skybird

03-20-23, 08:11 AM

Pillow talk and trading tricks on how to commit genocide best.

Rockstar

03-20-23, 08:22 AM

https://youtu.be/JWhCgG9ERUc

Jimbuna

03-20-23, 01:15 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9_ExTYk4k9Q

Jimbuna

03-20-23, 01:57 PM

Vladimir Putin was mocked by Ukraine today for allegedly sending a lookalike to war-ravaged Mariupol in a high security visit.

Kyiv official Anton Gerashchenko posted three images of Putin's chin and questioned whether they belonged to the same man.

He taunted: 'What's up with your chin, Putin?'

The Interior Minister advisor posted: 'Looks like lately his make-up artists (i.e. for the recent trips of the bunker man to the occupied Crimea and Mariupol) had to work with quite a low-quality copy, not even a double but its copy. I wonder which one of them was real?'

https://i.postimg.cc/vZQN5L0P/AA18QDJE.jpg (https://postimages.org/)

Jimbuna

03-20-23, 02:52 PM

Vladimir Putin has said he will discuss Xi Jinping's 12-point plan to "settle the acute crisis in Ukraine", during a highly anticipated visit to Moscow by the Chinese president.

"We're always open for a negotiation process," Mr Putin said, as the leaders called each other "dear friend".

China released a plan to end the war last month - it includes "ceasing hostilities" and resuming peace talks.

But on Friday the US warned the peace plan could be a "stalling tactic".

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said: "The world should not be fooled by any tactical move by Russia, supported by China or any other country, to freeze the war on its own terms."

He added: "Calling for a ceasefire that does not include the removal of Russian forces from Ukrainian territory would effectively be supporting the ratification of Russian conquest."

August

03-20-23, 04:06 PM

Imagine Putin being arrested in his last battle due to the international arrest warrant

Happened to Pinochet so there's precedent. :03:

Catfish

03-20-23, 04:54 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qPhycuLAtaw
I did not want to divert, this was a long but excellent take on the situation.
Thanks for posting :up:

August

03-20-23, 05:13 PM

I did not want to divert, this was a long but excellent take on the situation.
Thanks for posting :up:

You are very welcome Sir. Prerun has quite a few equally thought out videos on various aspects of this war. I post them here whenever a new one comes out.

Catfish

03-20-23, 05:13 PM

Vladimir Putin has said he will discuss Xi Jinping's 12-point plan to "settle the acute crisis in Ukraine", during a highly anticipated visit to Moscow by the Chinese president. [..]
What a load of crap.
China has its own interests, and Russia now is only a junior partner, if at all.
Xi's interest is to preserve Russia as an antagonist to the west, so he will support Russia with a bit of weapons to capture the Donbass region, but only that far.
This is a meeting to discuss business. Xi has an interest to see Russia and Nato fight a new cold war, and peace is not an option for both dictators.

Russia has an interest to trade with its only left trade partner, the question is whether this will ballance the loss of the european and rest of the western market. After all China will never pay as much as the west for oil or gas or other resources.
Xi went to visit a war criminal, and while he will be trying to support Putin secretly to a certain degree, he will not want to be called out, or caught red-handed.
Intersting to see those two potentates performing their dance of "friendship" and pseudo-sympathy.
And maybe Vladivostok will soon be chinese again for an exchange. Who knows ..

Rockstar

03-20-23, 06:54 PM

“wagner has gone from "we will capture bakhmut in 48 hrs, to we are about to be cut off and all killed and captured soon... like everything else in russia wagner is collapsing”

https://i.postimg.cc/Y0kW5w18/91492-A46-B331-44-D4-8-EFC-7-FAD296924-A8.jpg

Translated by Google
https://i.postimg.cc/C1H1fP2Q/1677-D653-2103-403-E-B8-FA-333-C7-C187-B55.jpg

Skybird

03-20-23, 07:31 PM

The Chinese plan is to freeeze the conflict and make the Russian gains in conquered land a lasting fact. I think that is obvious.

The quesiton to what degree the West will fall for this plot and say "Peace! Peace! They offer peace, lets stop delivering supplies and weapons, but talk!" - or not.

Rockstar

03-20-23, 07:42 PM

Jimbuna

03-21-23, 07:01 AM

Wait and see what happens between the two dictators and continue looking for armament transfer from China.

Anything of a negative nature from China should be met by maximum trade sanctions and I believe Xi will come to his senses sooner rather than later.

'Wishful thinking' on my behalf.

Jimbuna

03-21-23, 07:10 AM

Ukraine needs this ammunition now....right now.

More than a dozen European Union member states have agreed to supply Ukraine with at least one million artillery shells over the next year.

The plan, worth €2bn in total, was agreed in Brussels on Monday.

Ukraine had told the EU it needed 350,000 shells a month to hold back advancing Russian troops and launch a counter-offensive this year.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba hailed the "game-changing decision" from the EU.

"Exactly what is needed," he wrote on Twitter. "Urgent delivery and sustainable joint procurement."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65018434

Skybird

03-21-23, 10:01 AM

The US plans to dleiver Abrams tanks "sooner" than previously planned - already in 8-10 months. I wonder - what in that timetable is "sooner" than previously planned?

To make this possible, not the M1A2 should be delivered (they would need to be equipped with new downgraded armour, and for some time there even was talk of even more modern versions), but instead the M1A1. Officials get quoted with saying the earlier version were easier to maintain and easier to operate.

From the perspective of SBP which includes both versions I must say I would not dare to list the operational differences for at least gunner and commander as so significant that there is a real difficulty jump between the two. But that is my opinion based on just SBP's depiction of the two, so I will not offer the final word on this thing. But I think its a strawman argument to wrap the decison for older tanks in some candy floss to make it look more acceptable.

In SBP I would prefer the Leopard over the Abrams anyway, if it is only about easy operation. The Leopard was designed with conscripts in mind, so handling and maintenance were even greater priorities than in the design of the Abrams.

Jimbuna

03-21-23, 12:53 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rOmb7Evnh0k

Dargo

03-21-23, 01:56 PM

Listening to Secretary of State Antony Blinkin it doesn’t seem something the U.S. is interested in falling for. Personally I think Xi’s visit had more to do with him being able to see with own his eyes what the heck is going on with the Kremlin and Putin rather than offering any meaningful support.Putin is now just doing whatever Xi wants CCP officials said months ago that Moscow would lose and emerge as a "minor power" from its catastrophic fiasco of an invasion. The relationship between Russia and China has become very skewed. Many raw materials, such as oil products, gas, wood, coal and metals, Russia can no longer dispose of in the West and is trying to sell them partly to China. While it is less crucial for China. But China takes advantage of it, can negotiate its own price, but also, for instance, source oil from elsewhere. This increased dependence has two dimensions, as China is now also increasingly important to Russia for imports of high-end technology, consumer goods and, for example, car parts.

THE_MASK

03-21-23, 04:23 PM

If china helps russia in any way regarding the russian invasion of ukraine then the same sanctions should apply to china .

AUKUS = FREEDOM .

mapuc

03-21-23, 04:40 PM

Another wondering.

Do we in the West have the means to sanction China or even impose embargo against them ?

USA may have the means to do so. How about the European countries ?

Markus

Skybird

03-21-23, 05:33 PM

Rockstar

03-21-23, 05:39 PM

Over here when it comes to real pertinent information we’re treated much like mushrooms. Always fed crap and kept in the dark.

mapuc

03-21-23, 08:14 PM

Jimbuna

03-22-23, 06:24 AM

And this is how the war criminal celebrates what he perceives to have been a successful visit.

Russian drones swarm Kyiv in display of force as Xi leaves Moscow
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/russian-drones-swarm-kyiv-in-display-of-force-as-xi-leaves-moscow/ar-AA18VUZu?ocid=mailsignout&pc=U591&cvid=9461b13672284d4a955232a2ea8ad5be&ei=21

Jimbuna

03-22-23, 06:28 AM

Pretty obvious where Xi Jinping sees matters.....West beware!

China and Russia have sent a chilling message to the West as President Xi Jinping told his "dear friend" Vladimir Putin that a "change was coming" that hasn't happened in 100 years. The two leaders, who have both ruled their countries unchalleged for decades, toasted one another's health after talks concluded in Moscow on Tuesday.

President Xi Jinping, 69, told his 70-year-old counterpart: "Change is coming that hasn't happened in 100 years. And we are driving this change together."

He addressed Putin as a "dear friend" and told him to "please, take" as the pair exchanged pleasantries before parting ways at the end of a meeting that is likely to sound alarm bells in the West.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/xi-jinping-tells-dear-friend-putin-change-is-coming-in-chilling-message-to-west/ar-AA18VuYX?ocid=mailsignout&pc=U591&cvid=5444b6f5d00644bb90cd459e321e1f16&ei=21

Jimbuna

03-22-23, 09:15 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6dmlNmPYGrE

Rockstar

03-22-23, 11:53 AM

What is changing between China and Russia is explained by Nemetsov who was Putin’s political adversary up until Putin murdered him.

https://youtu.be/oZJ8Y44otrU

Rockstar

03-22-23, 12:02 PM

Once again this red line has been pushed forward.

According to this video clip-Ukraine will get shells with depleted uranium.
Read here in this thread some month ago- Where someone mention this. Saying something with-Russia would interpreter this as we use dirty bombs against them.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t0lFezJ_OQ8&ab_channel=DenysDavydov

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/putin-depleted-uranium-ukraine-uk-russia-nuclear-component/

Markus

Actually according to one study Depleted Uranium is less toxic and more environmentally friendly than old fashion lead ammo.

Depleted uranium instead of lead in munitions: the lesser evil

Sergei V Jargin 1
Affiliations expand
PMID: 24594921 DOI: 10.1088/0952-4746/34/1/249

Abstract

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/24594921/

Uranium has many similarities to lead in its exposure mechanisms, metabolism and target organs. However, lead is more toxic, which is reflected in the threshold limit values. The main potential hazard associated with depleted uranium is inhalation of the aerosols created when a projectile hits an armoured target. A person can be exposed to lead in similar ways. Accidental dangerous exposures can result from contact with both substances. Encountering uranium fragments is of minor significance because of the low penetration depth of alpha particles emitted by uranium: they are unable to penetrate even the superficial keratin layer of human skin. An additional cancer risk attributable to the uranium exposure might be significant only in case of prolonged contact of the contaminant with susceptible tissues. Lead intoxication can be observed in the wounded, in workers manufacturing munitions etc; moreover, lead has been documented to have a negative impact on the intellectual function of children at very low blood concentrations. It is concluded on the basis of the literature overview that replacement of lead by depleted uranium in munitions would be environmentally beneficial or largely insignificant because both lead and uranium are present in the environment.

Rockstar

03-22-23, 01:46 PM

This is why China will not help Russia.

‘Xi Jinping invited the leaders of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan in May for the "first China-Central Asia Summit" - AFP

Much to the dismay of Putin and his sympathizers I’m sure.

Jimbuna

03-22-23, 02:23 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4LeG9hteZ_Q

Jimbuna

03-22-23, 02:32 PM

Swedish Parliament voted for country’s accession to NATO

Deputies of the Riksdag (Parliament of Sweden) on Wednesday voted for the country’s accession to NATO.

269 parliamentarians voted "for", 37 voted "against", 43 deputies did not vote.

The country's government received the "green light" from the Riksdag for Sweden to join NATO, when all member states of the alliance ratify Sweden's application.

At the same time, the situation with Sweden's accession to NATO is complicated by the position of Turkey, which continues to obstruct this step by Stockholm, justifying its position by the fact that Sweden does not take the necessary measures against groups that are recognized as illegal in Turkey.

Catfish

03-22-23, 03:49 PM

Actually according to one study Depleted Uranium is less toxic and more environmentally friendly than old fashion lead ammo.
Depleted uranium instead of lead in munitions: the lesser evil
Sergei V Jargin 1
Affiliations expand
PMID: 24594921 DOI: 10.1088/0952-4746/34/1/249
Abstract
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/24594921/
I wrote a lengthy article on DU some decades ago. Believe me, this is not the stuff you want to use. Especially not on your own territory.
Bad enough in former Yugoslavia, let's not discuss Iraq or Afghanistan.

Catfish

03-22-23, 04:18 PM

https://i.imgur.com/DZe634Wl.jpg

Catfish

03-22-23, 04:22 PM

https://i.imgur.com/gwGXbpIl.jpg

Armistead

03-22-23, 09:05 PM

China provides the lion's share of critical ressources and rare earths needed in Europe. There is a reason why rare earths are called rare earths. We could damage them with sanctions, but we would also damage ourselves there, and maybe even more than with sanctions on gas and oil for Russia. Note that the Russian nuclear industry is practically not being sanctioned at all! France sends it nculear rods to Russia for refurbishing (the Russians can do that better than anyone else, simply a fact), thats why, and the Eastern European nuclear plants until today get their rods for Rosatom. Now, with all these jaw-dropping hihg flying plans of the EU for energy transfiguration and green deals and the need to buy solar panels and windmill parts from china since the damn Germans nuked their global leadership in solar panels ten years ago and without need, considering all these many plans that are so unimaginably costly and will need more ressources than even are available on the market , such a trade war with China will be costly. For China - and at least as much if not even more so for Europe.

I would not rule out that it would damage us even more than the fallout from our sanctions against Russia. In fatc I think that is even likely the case.

And then consider that we are already seriously hurt, economically, and financially. Europe staggers. Our situation is not half as lovely as they try to make us believe. The lie to us.

The Americans have it easier. But get lied to as well. But still, they have it easier.

Latin America Latin America has 'reserves of rare earth and 'technological metals' estimated to amount to 50 million tons. This is around 40% of the world total. In Bolivia alone, resources (potential reserves) of lithium, used in making batteries and electric cars, may be as much as 21 million tons." The problem is not so much the minerals but that China has the majority of mining facilities in operation. The US has lots of reserves, but only one mine in the entire nation and we can't process. There is a bill to make us self reliant, but last I heard it was still stuck in senate committee over a bunch of climate change issues. We have the means, just not the will.

Aktungbby

03-22-23, 09:18 PM

The US has lots of reserves, but only one mine in the entire nation and we can't process. We're working on that problem https://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org/articles/2023/2/10/us-begins-forging-rare-earth-supply-chain The Defense Department awarded MP Materials a $35 million contract in February 2022 to build a facility specifically designed to process heavy rare earth elements at the Mountain Pass mine. Sloustcher said the heavy rare earths will be refined in a different building, adding that the project is just getting started.

To fully domesticate the magnet supply chain, MP Materials also began construction on the United States’ first rare earth magnetics factory in April 2022. Located in Fort Worth, Texas, the facility will be able to annually produce around 1,000 tons of neodymium-iron-boron magnets from rare earth elements mined and refined at the Mountain Pass facilities, according to the company.

Jimbuna

03-23-23, 07:26 AM

Are we about to witness the ultimate April Fools joke?

Western leaders have been told they must act now to stop Russia's "absurd" accession to the presidency of the United Nations Security Council next month. And Oleksandra Matviichuk, an award-winning Ukrainian human rights lawyer, has warned Vladimir Putin will use the role to stymie the international community, a year after he ordered his full-scale invasion of her country.

"Russia will preside over the UN Security Council this April.

"This means that Russia, which was recognised as the state sponsor of terrorism and whose president the ICC issued arrest warrants against, will set agendas, open debates, limit speaking times for representatives at the most important security council."
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/west-urged-to-act-as-russia-just-days-away-from-taking-over-un-s-security-council/ar-AA18Z2wi?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=ee463e1232bc47eb91398301e17516eb&ei=11

Jimbuna

03-23-23, 07:54 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kgo5CZHG9lA

Skybird

03-23-23, 09:29 AM

https://www.nzz.ch/meinung/ukraine-der-preis-des-ueberlebens-im-krieg-gegen-russland-steigt-ld.1730300?_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_sl=auto

Ukraine must face tough decisions this year. The planned offensive will hardly run as successful and easy as it is described to the media. The losses of the ukrainian army are so high that they too must now force untrained "novices" into the trenches, even push special commandos and well-trained specialists into the trenches were they get mauled and are no longer available for that offensive. The West shows little real interest to see a clear victory by Ukraine, and its policy of delivering material reflects that: too much to die, too little to live. The war of attrition in the trenches works for Russia, and against Ukraine.

The Ukrainians must face the fact that the outcome of the war is not in their hands, despite all propaganda and heroic perseverance slogans. Sad, but fact.

I dare to predict that if this offensive that is rumoured fails to deliver big success, then that was it for Ukraine, because then the West's interest in supporting Ukraine further will grow in limitations and inhibitions. And that offensive will only be successful at further horrendous costs for the Ukrainians, most likely. They will suffer much more losses than the Russian defenders of occupied territories, like in almost every attacker-versus-defender scenario. Almost always the attacker must bear much higher losses than the entrenched defenders. Also, Biden will find it incraiongly difficult to push fzrtehr defence support through. And three quarter of the Republicans' followers are with either Trump or deSantis who both share the unwillingness to support Ukraine at all.

Ukraine's population has halved within the past 30 years. Once again.

Skybird

03-23-23, 09:44 AM

Jimbuna

03-23-23, 10:32 AM

Medvedev has jumped at the opportunity of speaking in defence of his master so no surprises there.

The Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, Dmytro Medvedev, stated that a situation involving the arrest of the Russian President by the decision of the International Criminal Court would mean a declaration of war against the Russian Federation.

"Now let's imagine - it is clear that this situation is never realized, but, nevertheless, let's imagine that it was realized. The current head of a nuclear state came to the territory of, let's say, Germany and was arrested. What it is? Declaration of war on the Russian Federation! And already in this case, all our means will fly to the Bundestag, the chancellor's office, etc. Does he understand that this is a "casus belli", that this is a declaration of war? Did he study badly?" he said.

Dargo

03-23-23, 12:05 PM

Its being reported by investigative networks that huge quantities of T-55s get transported to the West. The idea behind this can only be that they will cause problems for Ukraine by their sheer numbers, and that plenty of ammunition for these tanks is still available. They are not fit to compete with modern Western tanks, but used as mobile cannons in dug in defensive positions for infantry fights nevertheless turns them into something the Ukrainians must fight down one by one. The Russian doctrin always based on defeating western armies by overwhelming numbers, not by quality. And it forces Ukrainians to spend what they are running very low on: ammunition of all sorts.Russian forces may be deploying T-54/55 tanks from long-term storage to Ukraine to compensate for significant armored vehicle losses. The Georgia-based open-source Conflict Intelligence Team research group reported on March 22 that Russian forces transported a train loaded with T-54/55 tanks from Primorsky Krai towards western Russia, and social media sources speculated that Russian forces may deploy them to Ukraine.[22] Dutch open-source group Oryx assessed as of March 22 that Russian forces have lost at least 57 T-90, 448 T-80, 1,025 T-72, 53 T-64, and 73 T-62 tanks in highly attritional fighting in Ukraine.[23] Russian armored vehicle losses are currently constraining the Russian military’s ability to conduct effective mechanized maneuver warfare in stalling offensives in Ukraine, and Russian forces may be deploying T-54/55 tanks from storage to Ukraine to augment these offensive operations and prepare for anticipated mechanized Ukrainian counteroffensives. The Soviet Union produced tens of thousands of T-54/55 tanks after the Second World War, and the Russian military may be turning to extensive Soviet reserves of these tanks to solve its significant armored vehicle shortages. The Russian military may also be deciding to field the tanks because parts to repair the T-54/55 tanks are abundantly available and substantially cheaper. T-54/55 tanks lack the armor capabilities of more modern armored equipment, however, and originally carried a smaller main gun, although the Russian military may have modernized some vehicles. The Russian military will likely experience greater numbers of casualties by fielding these older tank systems in Ukraine. The deployment of inferior equipment to replenish the Russian military's ability to conduct mechanized maneuver warfare may prompt a further degradation of Russian manpower in Ukraine. Russian forces are unlikely to achieve preferable resource attrition rates on the grounds that T-54/55 are cheaper than anti-tank guided missile (ATGM) ammunition, as some have argued—each tank loss is the loss of a tank crew as well as the tank, after all, and it is not clear how effective these tanks will be against Ukrainian armored vehicles, whereas they are highly vulnerable to many anti-tank systems available to Ukraine, not all of which are expensive. https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-22-2023

Dargo

03-23-23, 01:38 PM

As of 22 March, "all units of the occupying army deployed in the settlement of Nova Kakhovka in Kherson Oblast have left the town".

As the General Staff states, this was preceded by searches in the houses of the local population with the aim of looting. The occupiers "confiscated" a large quantity of household appliances and electronic devices, jewellery, clothes and mobile phones.

In a number of other settlements in the temporarily occupied left-bank part of Kherson Oblast, the occupiers have begun searching for civilians with a pro-Ukraine stance. For this, they are using the lists of the participants of the Anti-Terrorist Operation (the operation conducted in the east of Ukraine in 2014-2015 – ed.), retired members of the military and persons who served in law enforcement agencies of Ukraine.

The General Staff also added that the occupiers are conducting defensive operations on the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia fronts. https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/03/23/7394796/

Mmmh could this "be" the result of Bakhmut goal not meet like Putin wanted to happen "The Donbas by March 31"

Jimbuna

03-23-23, 01:43 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gPbbylgwQTw

Jimbuna

03-23-23, 01:54 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Td7gqpImV8E

Skybird

03-24-23, 07:27 AM

Recent statements by U.S. Secretary of State Blinken indicate that Washington is backing away from its outwardly tough stance and is willing to accept negotiations on border concessions to Russia. A reconquest of Crimea no longer seems to be seen as a realistic goal in Washington, if it ever was. Blinken did artfully emphasize that the Ukrainians would have the last word, but these are just platitudes and it is well understood who will ultimately call the shots if Ukraine is, for better or worse, dependent on arms supplies from America and can close up store and war if Washington orders a further shortage of such supplies. Metaphorically spoken, Blinken demonstratively showed Selenski the watch on his wrist and tapped it with his finger. "Your time is running out, so better get a move on or comply," that means.

The tide is shifting more and more against Ukraine.

I said already at the beginning of the war that Washington's interest is not necessarily a victory of the Ukraine, but to maximise costs and losses for Russia to weaken it, even if these are at the Ukraine's expense - and that goal has been achieved. Russia's losses are huge, and its economical costs will stigmatize it for a full generation, if not longer.

Jimbuna

03-24-23, 08:08 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eYG2nMVv4uk

mapuc

03-24-23, 09:20 AM

Skybird

03-24-23, 09:32 AM

I get following from reading your post.

USA is turning their interest/focus from Europe to ASIA/China. USA is going to let Europe handle the problems in their backyard by them self, more or less.

Markus

Increasingly so, yes.

MaDef

03-24-23, 10:15 AM

Jimbuna

03-24-23, 12:39 PM

The despot is becoming increasingly desperate.

Vladimir Putin is offering soldiers cash to steal land from Ukraine.

The Russian despot will give troops around £500 for every kilometre of territory they manage to steal from the war-torn country in a bid to increase his depleted army.

Moscow has lost approximately 700,000 troops in the Ukraine war, with 70 per cent of these men being injured so badly that they are unable to return to the battlefield.

The bizarre new campaign has been advertised in several areas of Russia and appeared on the Telegram channel of the Siberian news network Tayga.

One flyer reveals that a soldier will now get a sign-up bonus of £3,000, with a monthly salary of £2,200.

For every advance into Ukraine, troops will be rewarded with around £500 per kilometre under the rules of "active participation in assault operations".

The post from Tayga news states: "The Novosibirsk Mayor's office sends requests to managing organisations of residential buildings to place advertisements for service in the army under a contract on bulletin boards at the front doors and at the entrances.

"The advertisement offers to participate in a 'special operation' in Ukraine."
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/vladimir-putin-offers-soldiers-cash-to-steal-land-from-ukraine/ar-AA192jy1?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=0c557fa3f53d40a1a27e26250fad994f&ei=24

Jimbuna

03-24-23, 12:55 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QcxXQhhsPi0

Jimbuna

03-24-23, 01:30 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KFGG9qgPxCk

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FbvP16s9Ats

Rockstar

03-24-23, 03:48 PM

As General Hodges said: “We’ll, that didn’t take long!”

Finland begins international cooperation on domestic airspace surveillance

Details about the flights are not being disclosed on grounds of national security.

https://yle.fi/a/74-20023901

YLE NEWS
23.3 15:50
•
Updated 23.3 16:10

The Finnish Defence Forces (FDF) have started international cooperation with partner countries for domestic airspace surveillance.

The first such flight, alongside the US Air Force, began on Thursday, according to the FDF.

According to aircraft tracking site Flight Aware (siirryt toiseen palveluun), a US Air Force reconnaissance RC-135 Rivet Joint aircraft with the callsign JAKE11 was seen flying along north-to-south patterns parallel to Finland's easter border with Russia on Thursday.

However details about the flights are not being disclosed on grounds of national security.

The FDF said there have been no recent changes in Finland's security situation and that the surveillance flights are part of planned international cooperation.

"Flight operations with international partners is art of normal bilateral and multilateral cooperation. The flights develop the interoperability of the Finnish Defence Forces, improve the common situational awareness and strengthen national defence. The flights show a mutual commitment to developing defence cooperation," the FDF said in a press release issued on Thursday.

The defence forces said that similar flights in Finnish airspace are planned for the future with various types of aircraft, including manned and unmanned aircraft.

nikimcbee

03-24-23, 04:35 PM

Maybe it's time to start up the Cold War naval game of harassing their Navy/sub? Go up from behind and ping them, asking what their pronouns are?:lurk:

Drown out their sonar with Kamala's cackle?:Kaleun_Applaud:

Could be a question for Wendy?:Kaleun_Cheers:

MaDef

03-24-23, 07:16 PM

Drown out their sonar with Kamala's cackle Wouldn't that be considered a provocation, justifying a military response?

Rockstar

03-24-23, 07:47 PM

https://youtu.be/6K7nlAycHKA

August

03-24-23, 10:19 PM

Maybe it's time to start up the Cold War naval game of harassing their Navy/sub? Go up from behind and ping them, asking what their pronouns are?

I like the idea of loading one of our big drones up with hidden explosives, fly it back and forth off the coast of Crimea and then touch it off the next time the Russians want to play Aircraft Tag.

Dear Vlad,

Yesterday your Fighter jet accidentally ran into one of our aircraft and caused a terrible explosion. Both aircraft were completely destroyed! Thankfully ours was just an unmanned drone but we are so sorry about your pilot. We gather that they only found his eyebrows.

Please accept our heartfelt sympathies.

XOX
The USofA.

:)

Commander Wallace

03-24-23, 10:37 PM

I like the idea of loading one of our big drones up with hidden explosives, fly it back and forth off the coast of Crimea and then touch it off the next time the Russians want to play Aircraft Tag.

Dear Vlad,

Yesterday your Fighter jet accidentally ran into one of our aircraft and caused a terrible explosion. Both aircraft were completely destroyed! Thankfully ours was just an unmanned drone but we are so sorry about your pilot. We gather that they only found his eyebrows.

Please accept our heartfelt sympathies.

XOX
The USofA.

:)

Entry # #10321 (https://www.subsim.com/radioroom/showpost.php?p=2857930&postcount=10321) of this thread.

I would love to see the drones set with a proximity fuse to detonate high yield explosives in the event Russian forces or any other hostile actor intercepts the drones and comes in close proximity. Perhaps arm them with chaff and or infrared flare dispensers so the intakes of the Russian aircraft can suck them up. Boom !!!! :D Either that or arm them with air to air missiles. Perhaps both.

Having given the matter some thought, I would also add ball bearings and shrapnel type things to go with the explosives. I do like that Idea. :D

August

03-24-23, 11:48 PM

Entry # #10321 (https://www.subsim.com/radioroom/showpost.php?p=2857930&postcount=10321) of this thread.

Having given the matter some thought, I would also add ball bearings and shrapnel type things to go with the explosives. I do like that Idea. :D

Oh yeah, but the drones destruction needs to be complete, preferably with a huge fire ball for effect, but leaving nothing except tiny little pieces (I would prefer using old silverware over ball bearings) that spatter into the sea over a wide area. We'll blame it on cheap Chinese Lithium-ion batteries. "Darn things blow up if you look at them sideways by Gar!"

It's how you Cold War. :03:

Commander Wallace

03-25-23, 12:17 AM

Oh yeah, but the drones destruction needs to be complete, preferably with a huge fire ball for effect, but leaving nothing except tiny little pieces (I would prefer using old silverware over ball bearings) that spatter into the sea over a wide area. We'll blame it on cheap Chinese Lithium-ion batteries. "Darn things blow up if you look at them sideways by Gar!"

It's how you Cold War. :03:

There would be total destruction if the air intakes sucked up the debris of the drone and explosives. Hopefully, the offending aircraft would experience total destruction as well. :D

nikimcbee

03-25-23, 01:14 AM

I like the idea of loading one of our big drones up with hidden explosives, fly it back and forth off the coast of Crimea and then touch it off the next time the Russians want to play Aircraft Tag.

Dear Vlad,

Yesterday your Fighter jet accidentally ran into one of our aircraft and caused a terrible explosion. Both aircraft were completely destroyed! Thankfully ours was just an unmanned drone but we are so sorry about your pilot. We gather that they only found his eyebrows.

Please accept our heartfelt sympathies.

XOX
The USofA.

:)

Vlad,
You've lost another MiG?

https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgflip.com%2F3e0h3r.png&f=1&nofb=1&ipt=9792ee6ead8145e01ca94114fa8b7e951ac8cc51f3e99f c3fb12cb80a83f97fb&ipo=images

https://img.youtube.com/vi/kxL8uBmdulY/0.jpg

I like that idea August. It's like the aeroplane version of a Q-ship or an Imperial probe droid?

nikimcbee

03-25-23, 01:17 AM

https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fthumbs.gfycat.com%2FYellowBlindHa ke-max-1mb.gif&f=1&nofb=1&ipt=f3e532b1eb8a5c5b8519c28907cb8ea622a7a147393af2 e7d547cc2e74848992&ipo=images

Jimbuna

03-25-23, 07:18 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2N9_yxLdyrc

Jimbuna

03-25-23, 07:48 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TjKpPXON4uk

Skybird

03-25-23, 12:04 PM

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65075952

President Volodymyr Zelensky has said Ukraine's counter-offensive against Russia cannot start until Western allies send more military support.

He told a Japanese newspaper he would not send his troops to the frontlines without more tanks, artillery and Himars rocket launchers.

In an interview with Yomiuri Shimbun, he said the situation in eastern Ukraine was "not good".

"We are waiting for ammunition to arrive from our partners," he said.

And when asked about the expected counter-offensive, he said: "We can't start yet, we can't send our brave soldiers to the front line without tanks, artillery and long-range rockets."

He added: "If you have the political will, you can find a way to help us. We are at war and can't wait."

Well. I rest my case. The way we do it now will lead us nowhere.

mapuc

03-25-23, 12:40 PM

Jimbuna

03-25-23, 12:44 PM

Total combat losses of Russian Federation since beginning of war - about 169,890 people (+720 per day), 291 helicopters, 3,580 tanks, 2,623 artillery systems, 6,932 armored vehicles. INFOGRAPHICS

As of the morning of March 25, 2023, the losses of the Russian occupiers are approximately 169,890 people.

personnel - about 169,890 (+720) people were liquidated,
tanks - 3580 (+6) units,
armored combat vehicles - 6932 (+11) units,
artillery systems - 2623 (+7) units,
MLRS - 520 (+9) units,
air defense equipment - 276 (+0) units,
aircraft - 305 (+0) units,
helicopters - 291 (+1) units,
UAVs of the operational-tactical level - 2214 (+6),
cruise missiles - 911 (+0),
ships/boats - 18 (+0) units,
automotive equipment and tank trucks - 5483 (+19) units,
special equipment - 279 (+2). Source: https://censor.net/en/n3408005

Dargo

03-25-23, 03:29 PM

Russia has moved 10 bomberplane to Belarus. They are capable carrying tactical nukes-Says Sky News

It's funny that on each news program they have to mention this-Capable carrying nukes, when they speak about the Russians bomberplane.

I say it's less than 0.5 Percentage that they going to be used for this purpose. They will be loaded with traditional conventional missiles.

MarkusThis was already announced in May 2022. If depleted Uranium tank ammunition threatens you so much you feel the need to threaten nuclear war, maybe it is time for Putin to admit he is lost. Excuse me, did you just load armor piercing bullets into that rifle? Prepare to get nuked.

August

03-25-23, 04:14 PM

I say it's less than 0.5 Percentage that they going to be used for this purpose

I am amazed that they came up with an actual percentage number. 0.5% chance huh of a nuclear attack. Wake me up if it gets to 0.75! :D

Dargo

03-25-23, 04:25 PM

The Problem With How the West Is Supporting Ukraine
Wars are won or lost well behind the front lines. Allies should arm Ukrainians accordingly. By Phillips Payson O’Brien

For the past four months, people around the world have witnessed the macabre process of Russian forces making repeated assaults near the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut for only the tiniest of gains. By some counts, Russia has lost about five of its soldiers for every Ukrainian soldier lost—to say nothing of massive equipment losses. Although in theory a country can win a war by using its military forces to make forward assaults against an enemy’s forces, that’s just not a smart way to fight. Military technology long ago evolved to arm both sides in conflicts with extremely lethal weaponry, and any army that tries to approach this machinery head-on is likely to suffer major, and in some cases horrific, losses. Far more effective is to weaken your opponent’s forces before they get to the battlefield. You can limit what military infrastructure they’re able to build, make sure what they do build is substandard, hamper their ability to train troops to operate what they build, and hinder them from deploying their resources to the battlefield. These steps are doubly effective in that they save your own forces while degrading the other side’s. Over the past two centuries, the powers that have emerged triumphant have been the ones that not only fought the enemy on the battlefield but also targeted its production and deployment systems—as the Union did by controlling the waters around the Confederacy during the Civil War and as the United States and Britain did from the air against Nazi Germany.

In light of such dynamics, the manner in which the West is supporting Ukraine’s war effort is deeply frustrating. Though NATO countries have a variety of systems that can target Russian forces deep behind their lines, recent aid has been overwhelmingly geared toward preparing Ukraine to make direct assaults against the Russian army. The most widely discussed forms of equipment—such as Leopard 2 tanks, Bradley armored personnel carriers, and even Archer long-range artillery—are not the kinds of systems that can disrupt or degrade Russian forces far behind the front lines. In short, Ukraine is being made to fight the war the hard way, not the smart way. Ukrainian forces have indeed been pushing back against Russia at the front. But when they have been able to create or obtain the right technology, they have also attacked Russian supply and troop-deployment chains. This approach to war was probably most evident last summer, when the Ukrainians, as soon as they gained access to HIMARS rocket launchers and other Western multiple-rocket-launcher systems, embarked on a highly effective campaign against Russian supply points from Kherson to the Donbas. They managed to wreck a logistics system that had been supplying the Russian armies with huge amounts of firepower daily.

Almost immediately, the Russians had to move their large supply depots out of range of the Ukrainians’ new rocket launchers, keeping essential equipment much farther from the front. This has severely limited Russia’s operations. It can fire significantly fewer shells each day and apparently can concentrate fewer vehicles on the front. The area where the Russians can properly supply their forces for operations has shrunk. This overall approach led the Ukrainians to one of their great successes last year: the liberation of the west bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson province. When faced with a large, relatively experienced Russian force around the city of Kherson, the Ukrainians tried two different tacks. One involved direct armed assaults against the Russian salient west of the river. These assaults achieved at best modest results. The Ukrainians were able at points to push the Russian front back a few miles, but they were never able to break the line for any major gain. Yet, in the end, the Russian army withdrew from Kherson last fall. Why was that? Because the other tack had made its supply situation more and more tenuous: After a months-long Ukrainian campaign targeting Russian-held depots, bridges, and river crossings, Russian commanders decided that Kherson was not strategically valuable enough to be worth the effort to hold it. The attacks on Russian supplies and logistics, which sapped their ability to deploy and maintain forces, were what made the difference.

The tanks and other assistance that Ukraine is currently receiving will help it attack the Russian army directly—which appears likely in the next few months. Ukrainian troops are training for such an operation in many partner countries and in Ukraine itself. They might well end up breaking the Russian line and advancing into the gap—the Ukrainian military has proved extremely resourceful and determined so far—but any success will likely be at significant cost to Ukraine’s own forces. Their task would be easier if their allies had given them a stronger capacity to attack Russians from a greater distance. They clearly want to do it. One of the most extraordinary abilities the Ukrainians have shown is developing homegrown long-range systems, often incorporating drones, to attack Russian forces many miles from the front. Yet these homegrown systems are limited. NATO states could have given Ukraine longer-range equipment—including a missile system known as ATACMS and advanced fixed-wing aircraft—or made a massive effort to help the Ukrainians develop and improve their own ranged systems. Unfortunately, NATO states, including the U.S., have been reluctant to provide the Ukrainians with missile systems with too long of a range, seemingly for fear of escalating tensions with Russia. Instead of allowing the Ukrainians to degrade Russian forces far from the front line, Ukraine is being prepared to attack that line. The Ukrainians’ fortitude and ingenuity up to this point suggest that they could indeed accomplish their task—but it’s been made much harder than it needs to be.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/03/ukraine-western-allies-support-supplies/673520/

mapuc

03-25-23, 04:48 PM

I am amazed that they came up with an actual percentage number. 0.5% chance huh of a nuclear attack. Wake me up if it gets to 0.75! :D

It was me who came up with this figure 0.5 percentage.

He may be mad, he isn't that mad releasing these nukes.

There's a every little tiny chance Russia could win this after all, but use of nuke-Well then he most definitely will lose the war.

Markus

Skybird

03-25-23, 04:52 PM

https://www.dw.com/en/the-united-states-is-delivering-downgraded-arms-to-ukraine/a-65121120

Stephen Blank, a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute who specializes in Russia and a former professor at the US Army War College's Strategic Studies Institute, said the limitations on weapon systems had to do with a "fear of Russia and an escalation of the war by Russia." However, Blank said he considered such concerns exaggerated. "I think we are too afraid of a escalation by Russia," Blank said. "I don't understand why Russian territory should be excluded from Ukrainian strikes. Russia started this war and has destroyed Ukraine." On the battle field, Blank said he saw a "significant difference" in the fact that Russia could concentrate its military equipment on the border with Ukraine and "fire at will" without fearing a counterattack. "If they could not do that anymore," Blank said, "that would be a great advantage for Ukraine." Blank advocates for demonstrating that Ukraine "won't be pushed around."
(...)
Gressel also does not think that NATO should engage directly, but he criticizes the apparent notion in the United States that the war could be "micromanaged in a way that it ends in a desired stalemate." He said that war is "too complex and too chaotic to be micromanaged." "This just signals to Putin that he has a certain chance of winning the war by sitting it out," Gressel said. "Any restraint in Western weapon deliveries is a signal to him that we are not serious."
My concerns exactly. We make sure that Ukraine must lose. We signal Putin that we are willing to let him win if he can hold his breath long enough.

We do our things in all this in a way that it should not be done in, never. We guarantee failure.

https://www.subsim.com/radioroom/showpost.php?p=2859847&postcount=10469

This is the reason why I slowly change my mind and turn against giving Ukraine support anymore. We do it wrongly and by this just extend the suffering and killing, while not learning any lessons form it ourselves, and not spendign what is needed to also prepare oursleves, and we do not give them what they need to win the war anyway, so why beign involved in this at all? We do not even intend to secure a victory so to not upset the Putin, so why the hell do we even care to give the opposite impression?

Either you do something right and in the way it must be done to succeed - or you must not care to even get started.

We will reap the fruits of our - fear. They will be soar and will not taste well.

https://www.nzz.ch/international/ukraine-gert-gawellek-erklaert-den-deutschen-wie-russen-kaempfen-ld.1731654?_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_sl=de

For Gawellek, however, Russia is "the enemy" today, even if he never thought it could come to that. "I was convinced that a war like the one in Ukraine would never start from there," he says. He wonders whether he overlooked something, whether he didn't look closely, back then in Moscow.

For example, he says, there was the everyday violence that he ignored, but which appears to him in a different light today. "I was always surprised at the harshness, ruthlessness and brutality with which they fought and how quickly they pulled out knives," he says. At the time, however, he didn't give it a second thought.

In the meantime, he knows that brutality is a dark part of the "Russian soul. Soldiers and mercenaries castrating Ukrainian prisoners of war, cutting off their fingers, severing their jugular veins - Gawellek knows the videos that show this. It's part of his job to look at that.
And:
Then there was the ruthlessness with which they burned up their personnel, the contempt for humanity in dealing with their own soldiers. And finally, the mass use of artillery, tanks, drones, missiles, mines, cluster bombs and other terrible weapons such as aerosol bombs, which the Bundeswehr would have to adjust to. "All in all, Russian land forces are and will remain at their core an army of artillery with tanks," Gawellek says.
And:
But then he does give one answer. It is the answer to the question of what soldiers should be mentally prepared for in a war with Russia. There are two points, says Gawellek. One is a tough, ruthless opponent. The Ukrainians know what they are fighting for, he says. "Do we know that, too?" asks Gawellek.

For the other point, he boots up his computer and asks if people want to do this to themselves. Then he shows pictures of fields of corpses, of burned, charred, mutilated, torn bodies. "Death and wounding were issues for us in Afghanistan, too," he says. But those were isolated cases, he says. "In a war against Russia, we're talking about masses."

Then he puts his cap back on, puts on his jacket and gloves, and undoes the lock on his bike. Before saying goodbye, he says three sentences that might sound unsettling to German ears accustomed to peace.

"We have to learn to take heavy losses and lose a battle." That's the first sentence. The second: "We must stop our fair-weather exercises; soldiers must know what war means." And the third: "A look at history shows that Soviet and Russian forces, usually on the verge of complete collapse, showed an amazing art of still learning from defeats."

les green01

03-25-23, 06:40 PM

That the thing we shouldn't put a collar and leash around Ukraine,let them loose let them go anyway they feel a lot of us here at subsim live during the cold war so it not like we are not use to threats of nukes,if ruskies want to use the nukes and attack the west like bunch of them say then let get the dance started

Jimbuna

03-26-23, 05:09 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9X6J9zjAs7Q

Jimbuna

03-26-23, 05:14 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L1Is_Fw8NRU

Jimbuna

03-26-23, 01:34 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OeGJ5dnlHwI

mapuc

03-26-23, 02:21 PM

How many correct answers has these expert come up with during the war in Ukraine ?

Even if this retired air force man should be wrong- These nukes are nothing than a toothless threat.

I can't take it serious that Russia has reinstalled nukes in Belarus and keeping it under their control.

On the other hand-If they were put under Lukasjenkos control-Then I would fear the use of them-He's more mad than Putin..He has on several occasion told Putin to use low yield tactical nukes in Ukraine.

Markus

Catfish

03-26-23, 02:29 PM

^ I somehow got the idea that Lukashenko will be gone soon.
I mean the whole of Belarus is swarming with russian military and FSB – only a matter of time, and Putin has made it quite clear he will.. "incorporate" Belarus "where it belongs".
Not sure whether the belarussian people can do anything against it.

Catfish

03-26-23, 02:31 PM

Russian President Vladimir Putin planned a “total cleansing” of Ukraine with “house-to-house terror” to subdue its people, leaked spy documents reportedly show.

Chilling emails from within Russia’s FSB intelligence service talk about orders “from the very top” for civilians to be taken to concentration camps in a bid to conquer Ukraine.

The emails were leaked by a source within the FSB to Russian human rights activist Vladimir Osechkin, who founded Gulagu, a website that highlights the conditions in the country’s prison system.

https://nypost.com/2023/03/25/putin-wanted-total-cleansing-of-ukraine-leaked-spy-docs-show/

mapuc

03-26-23, 02:37 PM

Skybird

03-26-23, 05:27 PM

https://www-andreas--unterberger-at.translate.goog/2023/03/die-justiz-der-naivitt/?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp

On suing Putin.

Jimbuna

03-27-23, 06:30 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FA42UK8oynk

Jimbuna

03-27-23, 06:41 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GxkjgQHq5iw

Skybird

03-27-23, 06:45 AM

Russia is slowly advancing from air dominance to acchieving air superiority.

https://abcnews.go.com/International/russian-jets-newer-generation-increase-dominance-combat-zone/story?id=98133444

Su-35's are very capable fighters. Their radar combined with their long range missiles make them a threat old Ukrainian Mig-29s cannot deal with. Not to mention the numerical ratio of 10:1 to 12:1 in favour of Russia.

Skybird

03-27-23, 07:30 AM

I hope this man is right and I am wrong. It would be better for the cause.

https://www.nzz.ch/feuilleton/marcus-keupp-deswegen-sage-ich-russland-wird-den-krieg-im-oktober-verloren-haben-ld.1731488?_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_sl=auto

(...)
If the propaganda is supposedly catching on so well, could it not also be that politicians in the West are losing patience, seeking an early peace, and thus thwarting your military scenario of a Russian defeat?

The military situation documents a brutal, objective reality that does not submit to political discourse. The balance of power is negotiated on the battlefield. The result is measured in destroyed systems and dead people. It sounds cruel, but that's how it is. It does not depend on the Germans or on the French, at least in the political sense. Both Scholz and Macron come from a long tradition of friendship with Russia, even though both states now support Ukraine with weapons. I don't even listen to the political discourse anymore. What counts for me are the objective facts. And I observe them in the actual fight. There is no evidence at all that the military support of the West would diminish, even if the appeasers are disproportionately received in the media.

You give the impression in this interview that Europe is very Russia-friendly. But it's the other way around: large majorities in the West are behind Ukraine.

Not yet in Germany and France. But one should not overestimate that, because Germany is not a militarily decisive power. On the contrary. Germany would do best to hand over its weapons systems in full to Ukraine. Then Russian aggression would be neutralized in reverse, and today's ailing Bundeswehr could be turned into an army for the 21st century. Fortunately, Europe's security does not depend on Germany, otherwise we would have long been part of the neo-Russian empire.

Do you see yourself as an outsider in Germany?

Fortunately, I can say that I have not spent most of my adult life in Germany and am therefore immune to the strangely emotional discussion culture there. I am alternately called a hyper-realist and a Nato warmonger. I can live with that. I think in twenty years we will look back with horror at some German politicians and the Schröder and Merkel governments. We will shudder with pleasure and say, "Thank God that turned out well.

What do you mean exactly?

Just think what would have happened if the war hadn't come for another ten years: even more Russian money in Europe, Nord Stream 2 completed, Germany getting 70 percent of its energy from Russia. Would the Germans still have supported Ukraine then? It sounds cynical, but fortunately this war is taking place now.
(...)

Jimbuna

03-27-23, 11:41 AM

Vladimir Putin is offering Russian soldiers £500 for every kilometre of territory they steal from Ukraine as he frantically bids to increase his depleted army.

Skybird

03-27-23, 12:50 PM

Both the German chancellor and the defence minister confirm that 18 Leopard-2A7s and 40 Marder 1A3 have arrived in Ukraine.

Dargo

03-27-23, 12:57 PM

I hope this man is right and I am wrong. It would be better for the cause.

https://www.nzz.ch/feuilleton/marcus-keupp-deswegen-sage-ich-russland-wird-den-krieg-im-oktober-verloren-haben-ld.1731488?_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_sl=autoMarcus Keupp uses a tank calculation to explain how he came to the conclusion that the war was decided in October. In an interview with the "NZZ" he talks about estimates by western military analysts. Accordingly, at the beginning of the war, Russia had 2,900 deployable main battle tanks. He offsets these against estimates from the Oryx collective . This uses visual evidence to estimate the casualties suffered by Russians and Ukrainians in the war. "Here we are today at 1845 tanks that Russia lost - so about 5 per day of the war," Keupp explains. "The remaining reserve of 1055 pieces is enough for a maximum of 211 days of the war." The end of October is in 211 days - if Keupp's calculation comes true, Russia will finally run out of tanks in October. And in his opinion, the calculation is “still conservative”, the military economist explains to the “NZZ”. As soon as Western tanks arrive at the battlefield and the Russian army has to resort to older models at the same time, the technological advantage is likely to increase the casualties of the invaders, according to Keupp.

Russia was capable of producing about 100 battle tanks per year before the war - but under better economic conditions. However, at the current attrition rate of five tanks per fighting day, they would have to produce 1,500 tanks per year to compensate for attrition alone. Moreover, Western battle tanks will soon appear on the battlefields - this will once again fundamentally change the situation in Ukraine's favor. Western battle tanks can shoot down Russian ones from a distance. With this combat power, the Ukrainians will split the Russian front. Then it will be quite dramatic for the Russian troops, because the Ukrainian army will systematically attack their supplies. Wars are not decided by major battles, but by reserves and logistics. How can I ensure the best possible long-term supply of my troops? That is the all-important question. Russia's army is pretty bare, there is nothing left to take. The border with Finland, Kaliningrad, even the Far East has been stripped bare: everything Russia has in the way of operational material is in Ukraine. There will be a point where the front simply collapses, as it once did in the First World War.

Russia is a large Potemkin village that has been able to successfully fool the West into believing that it is strong and powerful. Anyone who has ever looked at the country outside the glittering metropolises of Moscow and St. Petersburg got an idea of this. But few Western politicians have ever gone there.The revolution of 1917 began because the Russian soldier mostly came of regions outside Russia itself, treated like untermench they wanted to go home to support their families because they starved to work the land to survive. if you talk to Russian outside Russia you learn they know they are being used this was also before this war they never had any hope that Moscow will ever help them they know they are the ones that make Russia rich without they will ever get it better. there comes a time they gone walk home and Putin can not stop this he has not the power or force to stop them.

Jimbuna

03-27-23, 01:16 PM

The Kremlin-installed leader of Crimea has reportedly formed a pro-Russian mercenary group named "Convoy," which was inspired by the notorious Wagner Group. According to reports, Sergey Aksyonov's group has already been dispatched to occupied areas of southern Ukraine's Kherson region.

mapuc

03-27-23, 01:58 PM

There was a link to an English article about the same-It was behind a paywall, so I translated the Danish text with deepL.

Since leaks were discovered on the Nord Stream 1 and 2 gas pipelines, there have been many different theories about who was behind it.

Russia, Ukraine, the US, the UK and Norway have at various times been accused of being behind or complicit in the sabotage, all countries have denied the accusations.

Now The Times reports that new information has emerged - pointing to Denmark.

Danish naval vessel deviated from route
Four days before the gas pipeline explosions, the Danish naval vessel P524 Nymfen, which monitors Russian shipping, was said to have deviated from its normal patrol route.

Something that has not happened for many years.

'For the first time in many years, it sailed along Bornholm and further north-east to the outer edge of Denmark's estimated radar range. It stopped for half an hour, switched off its transponders and disappeared from international tracking systems for several hours,' writes The Times.

The Times claims to have verified the information about the Danish ship's unusual activity in the days before the sabotage operation in the Baltic Sea, which was first noted by Danish analyst Oliver Alexander.

Why the ship deviated from its normal patrol route is still an unanswered question.

- "It seems that the Danish surveillance vessel was circling the site of the explosion for a reason," says Jacob Kaarsbo, senior analyst at think tank Europa, without elaborating further.

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)

Markus

Catfish

03-27-23, 03:07 PM

^ Thanks! Still not sure what this means –

Meanwhile in russiophile circles:
https://www.newsweek.com/california-man-vows-interrogate-western-scum-russia-ukraine-1759400

:har:

"Far-right groups and individuals participated in the Russian aggression. Antisemitism was an important factor of the anti-Ukrainian (and indirectly anti-Western) propaganda and social mobilization in the Russian-occupied parts of Donetsk and Luhansk regions (so-called DPR and LPR)."

Skybird

03-27-23, 05:06 PM

https://www.schiffsspotter.de/Bilder/Motorschiffe/Marine/Nymfen/62711.jpg

mapuc

03-27-23, 08:13 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LtTxsEvfqRY&ab_channel=DenysDavydov

Markus

Jimbuna

03-28-23, 07:10 AM

Both the German chancellor and the defence minister confirm that 18 Leopard-2A7s and 40 Marder 1A3 have arrived in Ukraine.

Challenger 2 tanks have also arrived but the precise number is currently unclear.

Jimbuna

03-28-23, 07:24 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6JYOw6eRVC0

Dargo

03-28-23, 12:44 PM

Russia's spring offensive is all but stalled. Attacks have not stopped, but the Russian army is hardly making any more progress in eastern Ukraine. Many military analyses speak of a culminating offensive. That is military jargon for an attack that has passed its peak, explains Peter Wijninga. The former colonel is attached to The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies: "The offensive is going to end like a candle."

Han Bouwmeester nuances this picture. According to the brigadier general and professor of military operational sciences, the Russian offensive never peaked and therefore cannot culminate. According to him, the attacks have "lost their momentum". The Russian attacks have failed, he thinks, because "there was no surprise, they never gained speed and all creativity was missing. Always the same frontal attacks."

Former Colonel Wijninga explains the jamming largely from the organization of the Russian army: "Poor coordination and poor management. It is far too hierarchical. For every problem, they have to call Moscow, so to speak. The Ukrainians are much more flexible, their decision-making is faster. There is much more responsibility at the low level, so they are more creative." The Ukrainians' information position would also be much better. "Because of all the help they get from the West, they see exactly what is happening on the battlefield, while the Russians are often behind."

Wijninga "does not want to be too adamant". Bouwmeester also warns that the attacks have not yet stopped. "Russian troops are still being moved and replaced. They haven't given up yet. But the question is how to proceed," said the HCSS analyst. Ten thousand troops have recently been trained in Belarus. How many of them have already been deployed is unclear. Some are probably already fighting in Luhansk province. These troops are better than the untrained mercenaries of the Wagner army, which tried to take Bakhmut, though. They have since been relieved by elite troops, but they are not successful either. Another sign that the Russian offensive has failed are the rumors surrounding the general staff. Another round of resignations is said to be imminent. It is likely that two sub-commanders will have to leave the field. "Because of the failures," states Wijninga.

The gigantic losses near Voelhedar are heavily blamed on local commander Colonel General Rustam Muradov. His days would therefore be numbered, assumes the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US think tank. The ISW notes that critics of the Russian military are always more interested in punishment than in solving the problems facing the army.

Those Russian critics, the military bloggers, are also skeptical about the plan to station nuclear weapons in Belarus. President Putin announced that last weekend. He would do so at the request of the Belarusian president. Russian bloggers note that those nuclear weapons will not change anything about the situation on the battlefield in Ukraine. The nuclear weapons for Belarus are seen mainly as a signal to the West. Putin is said to want to instill fear so that the West stops supplying weapons. Bouwmeester says the deployment of the nuclear weapons is not so simple, either. "There is no suitable storage in Belarus," he says. Wijninga believes "in all cases there is symbol politics. Putin is also trying to appease his critical supporters in this way".

Putin has ordered his generals to control the entire Donbas region by 1 April. "That will not succeed anyway," Wijninga knows. The northern part of this region, Luhansk province, is almost entirely Russian. But the southern province of Donetsk is still one-third in Ukrainian hands. Missing the deadline is unlikely to affect Russian army commander-in-chief Valery Gerasimov. Meanwhile, the centre of gravity of the Russian effort has shifted somewhat to the south, from Bakhmut to Avdiivka. That is an attempt to encircle the rest of Donetsk province. A tank regiment, just trained in Belarus, is said to have lost much of all its tanks there. As a result of "frontal attacks", the British Ministry of Defense reported in its daily briefing. And so the Russian failures continue to string together for now. https://nos.nl/artikel/2469250-russische-voorjaarsoffensief-lijkt-vastgelopen-mislukkingen-rijgen-zich-aaneen

https://i.postimg.cc/WpxQrJGn/decreasingoffensives.jpg
The picture shows the state of this war, the failure of Putin and his gang of criminals.