Here we go again-Ukraine once again

[Rockstar]

IMO Russia is between a rock (NATO) and a hard place (China). Though I’m sure Putin is ‘hoping’ China is a friend. I can still see China taking advantage of Putin’s weakness by working their way in and establishing alliances of their own throughout their ancestral claims to Russian territory.

Putin wants to return Russia to its former glory, the thing is those days are long gone. My advice for Putin, resign and be replaced with a more NATO friendly leader. Otherwise Russia may lose a helluva lot more than the good old times of yesteryear.

[Catfish]

[...] the US will impose sanctions, and probably will also sanction the hell out of Germany and the EU if both do not play ball over SWIFT and Nord Stream 2. Will the US suffer? A bit. Will Germany, the EU? Yes, and significantly so. But the Russian state and economy will will suffer much more.
It will also drive Russia and China closer together.
It will also drive the EU away from the US.

[Skybird]

It will also drive the EU away from the US.
Trad war possible,lk but then, who will suffer more? I think the EU is in the weaker position, and espoecialyl Germany has to loose more than anyone else, export champions tht we are. I say sionce years and years: if you depend as heavily on exports as Germany, then you are no strong economy but you are a dependent and thus: weak weconomy.

Add that to the madness the Kindergarden coalition government plans with "ecologic feminist policy making", word record high taxes, record high electritcy costs, gas dependency, and the inflation-driving policy of the ECB.

---

Meanwhile, in another part of the galaxy:

The Russian Navy has issued a warning that it will temporarily close off large parts of the Ukrainian coast on the Black Sea. The reason was missile tests that are to be carried out in the coming week. A Ukrainian think tank had informed about the warning. It was first reported by the Moscow Times.

According to experts, the closure of large parts of the coastal region of Ukraine is tantamount to a naval blockade.
---
Didn'T Macronman say that Putin told him he would not escalate further? I would think blocking another state's coast and naval traffic is anything but unprovoking or non-escalating. Anyway I strongly doubt that Putin indeed told him that. I think it is just a Frenchman acting as if he were de Gaulle.

[mapuc]

It's breaking news here in Denmark-only 5 minutes old.

Denmark has made an agreement with USA to let American troops be placed on Danish ground.(If I remember correctly Denmark only allow other NATO country on Danish soil-during exercise and in wartime)

How many the news didn't say-Guess we will know in a day or two.
And where they shall be placed.

Markus

[August]

It's breaking news here in Denmark-only 5 minutes old.

Denmark has made an agreement with USA to let American troops be placed on Danish ground.(If I remember correctly Denmark only allow other NATO country on Danish soil-during exercise and in wartime)

How many the news didn't say-Guess we will know in a day or two.
And where they shall be placed.

Markus


There is a Danish guy that runs a YouTube channel called "Survival Russia". He lives way out in Siberia somewhere with his Russian wife making camping and survival videos when he isn't scrapping steel out of old Gulags. I hope Putin doesn't take revenge on him.

[Jimbuna]

UK Foreign Secretary Liz Truss holds frosty news conference with Russian counterpart.

Sergei Lavrov says relations between UK and Russia leave "much to be desired"
Meanwhile Truss accuses Russia of "Cold War rhetoric"

In Brussels, Boris Johnson warns the Ukraine-Russia crisis is at its "most dangerous moment"

The UK PM then went to Poland as part of a diplomatic push.

Russia has been massing troops on its neighbour's borders and in Belarus for months.

And Johnson warns the intelligence on a possible invasion "remains grim"

[mapuc]

This exercise Russia and Belarus is conducting are planned to continue until Feb. 20. The same day the OL ends.

The same goes with the sea trial in the Black Sea-this should also end on 20th of Feb.(If I remember correctly)

Wonder-Could this mean that Russia and Belarus will attack Ukraine not so far after this day 20th of Feb. ?

Markus

[Skybird]

This exercise Russia and Belarus is conducting are planned to continue until Feb. 20. The same day the OL ends.

The same goes with the sea trial in the Black Sea-this should also end on 20th of Feb.(If I remember correctly)

Wonder-Could this mean that Russia and Belarus will attack Ukraine not so far after this day 20th of Feb. ?

Markus




https://www.subsim.com/radioroom/showpost.php?p=2790859&postcount=397


:03:

[mapuc]

^ Sorry must have forgot you post on when Russia may attack Ukraine-I read lots of post each day.

In your post you wrote
"If Putin decides for war, that is"

I think he has made his mind up on this month ago. If so then all these talks with other politicians from Europe is nothing but small talk. This because he know NATO can't agree on most of the demands Russia has put forward.

Markus

[Jimbuna]

Return of service https://i.postimg.cc/Y2RFprs4/icon-tennis.gif (https://postimages.org/)

A full invasion of Ukraine would not be a "simple walk in the park" for Russia because Ukrainian troops would fight for every metre of land until their last breath, the commander of all ground forces has warned.

General Oleksandr Syrskyi said his soldiers were starting a round of military exercises in the north of Ukraine, near to the border with Moscow-ally Belarus, where Russian forces are conducting a massive joint exercise on the other side with Belarusian troops.

The 56-year-old said Ukrainian personnel will also carry out training in the south. The exercises will include testing new US and UK weapons and practising how to counter airborne assaults. https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-russia-tensions-vladimir-putin-warned-by-ukrainian-general-his-troops-will-fight-until-the-very-last-breath-12537922

[Gorpet]

It will also drive the EU away from the US.

We the United States have the smartest and oldest politicians and ruling families that are still breathing.And if you don't like it to bad. This is Joes,Chuck, Nancy, Hillary and know one has ever asked Maxine Waters what she thinks about that Russian White Guy Putin .The answer would go down in history.

[Gorpet]

The Ukraine has a lot of American Politicians secrets. War it will be to keep those secrets.Ukraine asked Joe Biden the now American President if they could join NATO. They did not ask or bring themselves to Nato just Joe Biden. How many other countries on this planet would like that Privilege ? Before you start the Democrats are America.And they have your countries by the Bals Birds of a feather flock together. Politicians sworn oath.

[Gorpet]

Return of service https://i.postimg.cc/Y2RFprs4/icon-tennis.gif (https://postimages.org/)

And they will have to fight maybe to their last breath. Will all of America's and Britain's immigrants be willing to fight. Damn they just got to the land's of milk and honey.

[Catfish]

"Truss challenged Lavrov directly over his assertion that Russia is not threatening anyone with its buildup of troops and weaponry near Ukraine’s borders. “I can’t see any other reason for having 100,000 troops stationed on the border, apart from to threaten Ukraine. And if Russia is serious about diplomacy, they need to remove those troops and desist from the threats,” she said.

Away from the cameras, Truss allegedly confused the Russian regions of Voronezh and Rostov with Ukrainian territory when Lavrov asked her whether she recognised Russia’s sovereignty over them. She repeatedly told Lavrov that the UK would never recognise Moscow’s claim, until the British ambassador was forced to step in to correct her, the Russian business daily Kommersant reported."

Please :doh:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/feb/10/russia-must-respect-ukraine-sovereignty-liz-truss-talks-open

[Jimbuna]

So is there a diplomatic way out, an exit from this confrontation that is peaceful and durable?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60341966

[Skybird]

So is there a diplomatic way out, an exit from this confrontation that is peaceful and durable?

Markus wrote that Putin must have deicded peace or war alreadsy logn time ago, and he is right, such operations, bluff or real, take time and preparation ahead of the execution of plans. It ode snit matter what the West thinks it can or cannot do to "influence" Putin. The only question is whatr Putin has decided it will be, and decided in the past. The West will not influence him. If Putin said "let it be war, and until we are ready, bluff the West and pour sweet words into their ears" (thats how I would do it in his place), then so it will be. The West has not really any option to prevent war. It can only react to it once it broke out.
And I do not believe for one second that the German-US relations are as good as Scholz and Biden said. The Americans have noticed Scholz' endless weaseling, and they take his language, that avoids to say anything binding, quite queer, I think, are alientated by it. So are many Germans. If a couple so often and ambitiously points out how much they love each other and how close they are to each other, and do this endlessly and at every opportunity - then some serious things are broken in this relation.

[Skybird]

President Joe Biden issued a warning Thursday to any Americans who remain in Ukraine (https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/biden-administration-planning-getting-americans-ukraine-russia-invades-rcna15584) as Russia (https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/u-s-intel-nine-probable-russian-routes-ukraine-full-scale-n1288922) continues to threaten an invasion: Leave.
"American citizens should leave now," Biden said in an interview with NBC News anchor Lester Holt.
“It’s not like we’re dealing with a terrorist organization. We’re dealing with one of the largest armies in the world. It’s a very different situation, and things could go crazy quickly,” he said.
Holt asked Biden what scenario could prompt him to send troops to rescue Americans fleeing the country. Biden replied: “There’s not. That's a world war when Americans and Russia start shooting at one another.”

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/biden-warns-americans-leave-ukraine-russia-troops-world-war-rcna15781

[Skybird]

The Neue Zürcher Zeitung writes:


Will there be a big war? And how can it be averted? These questions are becoming increasingly urgent as more and more Russian troops are massing on Ukraine's borders. But they are linked to a third question that has governments and ordinary citizens scratching their heads. What does Putin want?

That in the 21st century a European leader would hunt down half his army on a neighboring country was beyond imagination not long ago. Certainly, the Russian president is a repeat offender: His path to power is paved with war crimes in Chechnya, later he invaded Georgia and brought the Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea "home to the empire" in a coup d'état. But the invasion now feared would have a very different dimension.

It would be the first interstate campaign of conquest in Europe since World War II. Putin could neither hide behind separatists as in the eastern Ukrainian Donbass nor behind disguised special forces as in Crimea. In the event of a major attack on Ukraine, he would be recognizable to the whole world as the aggressor. What could motivate a soon-to-be 70-year-old politician to consider such a risky course?

Two explanations stand out so far. One school of thought argues that the Kremlin is indeed primarily concerned with Ukraine. It wants to bring it back into its sphere of influence once and for all, it says. The small-scale war in the Donbass instigated by Moscow has only weakened the neighboring country, but not made it compliant. In fact, it has been counterproductive because it has reinforced Ukraine's westward orientation. Hopes for a more Moscow-friendly course under the Russian-speaking President Selensky were finally dashed in 2021.

Against this backdrop, it seems plausible to some observers that Putin feels compelled to blackmail Kiev militarily-and, if necessary, to take warlike action before Ukraine drifts fully into the Western camp. The Kremlin may see an opportune moment, given the domestic political divisions in the United States, the debacle in Afghanistan and Europe's lack of leadership after the end of the Merkel era.

But while such considerations play a role in Moscow, this attempted explanation also has weaknesses. The Kremlin's painting of Ukraine's NATO membership as a threat to Russia is a propaganda fiction, not a realistic prospect for this decade. The Ukrainian membership application has long been buried deep in a Brussels drawer. When Putin recently warns of the scenario of a war with NATO over Crimea, he is creating a horror story for his own audience. For neither does NATO want to be drawn into such a conflict, nor is Ukraine foolish enough to attack the Russian Goliath.

If the Kremlin's primary concern was to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO, it is not clear why it needs the threat of an invasion to do so. The Ukrainians themselves are more relaxed about the danger than Western governments and remain steadfast. A permanent occupation of large parts of the country would exceed Russia's capabilities. Moscow would have other, less risky means to put pressure on Kiev - from boosting the information war against Selensky to sabotage and cyberattacks against infrastructure facilities to halting the transit of natural gas.

A second school of thought therefore sees Putin's behavior in a different light. Its supporters argue that Ukraine is just a pawn and is being used by the Kremlin to fight a power struggle with the West. In this perspective, Putin wants nothing less than a shake-up of the European security order. Europe's cornerstones - including the transatlantic defense alliance NATO and the EU, which is built on liberal principles - are displeasing to the Russian leadership. It sees itself confined to the role of a fence-sitter and claims an exclusive sphere of interest in its Eastern European forecourt.

Moscow rightly sees the U.S., which opposes this great power claim and has won many countries of the former communist Eastern bloc as allies, as the main obstacle. The counterstrategy must therefore be to loosen transatlantic ties, sow strife in Europe, and render the West as a collective incapable of action.

This second explanation makes Russia's demands in the current crisis understandable: Putin is not only aiming at Ukraine, but also at a general reduction of NATO. NATO would no longer be allowed to accept new members and would have to withdraw the troops stationed in the Eastern European member states.The latter, of course, runs diametrically counter to the purpose of an alliance. In this view, the Russian deployment serves to tempt the West into a panic reaction and far-reaching concessions.

But there are several catches to this explanation as well: it does not become plausible why Russia is suddenly demanding a new security architecture with such urgency. The major NATO expansion eastward into Russia's neighborhood took place 18 years ago. It has not posed a threat to Putin's empire. For a long time, NATO refrained from stationing any troops in the new member states. It was only after the annexation of Crimea in 2014 that it decided to establish a certain presence in the Baltic States and Poland. But this is symbolic in nature. It is ludicrous to stylize the 10,000 or so soldiers from the United States and other Western states as a threat to Russia's armed forces in the region, which are at least twenty times as large.

The claim that NATO could station ballistic missiles or other offensive weapons on Russia's borders is also made up out of thin air. The Western alliance has never pursued such plans. Russia need not fear an attack if only because its nuclear arsenal gives it a formidable deterrent potential.

The threat to Russia is an invention - a fairy tale that the Kremlin has been telling in various forms for years. It is meant to make the Russian people believe that their homeland is a besieged fortress. America is intent on dismembering the country. This does not exclude the fact that large parts of the Russian elite now firmly believe this and act accordingly. But this view of the world is also extremely useful politically. It is the best argument for why Russia needs a strong man at the top and a monstrous security apparatus. The Kremlin has not been able to legitimize its economic successes for a long time.

Putin's behavior in the current crisis is therefore not solely a matter of geostrategy, but has much to do with domestic political calculations. The preservation of his own power overrides everything. The popular uprising against Belarusian dictator Lukashenko a year and a half ago and the ousting of Kazakhstan's long-term ruler Nazarbayev in January must have been frightening alarm signals for him. Both are countries whose autocratic regimes seemed to have everything under control - until they suddenly began to falter.

Conjuring up an external enemy is therefore more important than ever for Putin as a means of maintaining power. But it is also a matter of aggressively fighting the dangerous democracy virus. In Ukraine, which has already experienced two pro-Western revolutions, it is particularly rampant. Even if Ukrainian democracy is still full of flaws, it radiates far to the east. In this sense, Ukraine is indeed a danger - but not to Russia, only to the Kremlin regime.

Putin has every interest in weakening the democratic seedling in the neighboring country and destabilizing the government in Kiev. However, he will not blindly plunge into a warlike adventure. The chances and risks are in the most favorable ratio for him if a mere demonstration of power suffices and he extracts concessions in the war of nerves with Kiev and the West without having to fire a single shot.

It is therefore obvious how war can be prevented. First, Putin must face the highest possible costs in the event of an invasion. For lack of unity, the West has not done this concretely enough so far. For another, a face-saving way out must be shown. The Western proposals for negotiations on arms control and confidence-building measures serve this purpose. It would be an illusion, on the other hand, to believe that the West could appease the Russian bear by sacrificing fundamental interests. It is in the nature of the Putin regime to depend on the external enemy. Moscow will therefore remain a disruptive factor in Europe's east for the foreseeable future.

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (http://www.DeepL.com/Translator) (free version)

https://www.nzz.ch/meinung/ukraine-eine-gefahr-fuer-putin-nicht-fuer-russland-ld.1669254

[Catfish]

The NZZ is a quite 'conservative' paper and certainly has its bias, but some fair points made.

meanwhile in real life:
https://www.barrons.com/news/global-britain-runs-into-russian-ridicule-01644591607?tesla=y

So tory leadership is more important than diplomacy, who would have thunk.

[Jeff-Groves]

One ERW?
No more Russian Army in the area.
May as well go all in.

[Catfish]

A bit of collateral damage among your ukrainian friends will be no problem for the US :03: And after this you have the other meaning of ERW ..

[Jeff-Groves]

So you believe 130,000+ Soldiers invading a Country will have NO collateral damage?
:hmmm:

I got news for you. In ANY WAR? There is collateral damage.
Always has been. Always will be.

[Catfish]

True, but there will also be some radioactive residuals which will spoil the region for some time, and if you use an ERW there would be a bit more pollution than with those 'depleted' uranium bullets spread everywhere in the middle east and in the Kosovo. Or maybe clean up 'conventional' rests in Laos first.
Also you will not get all of the soldiers (or civilians) at once, some will be vomiting and knowing to die, and who knows what they will do with that knowledge.

[mapuc]

Hope I do not sound to cold blooded when I write

If the war stay in Ukraine and it's only the Ukrainian who got a disadvantage in a Russian invasion then it's fine by me-It wouldn't let me lay sleepless in the night.

However I fear a lot that NATO slowly will get involved as the war goes on in Ukraine-´cause the Ukrainian will put up af fight for each square meter they lose.

Well shall we leave the Ukrainian by them self ? Of course not-We shall send them weapon and provide them with passive help-such as AWACS, Satellite a.s.o.

Edit
Breaking news here in Denmark.

The Minister for foreign affairs has recommended that Danish citizen visiting, working or living to leave Ukraine as fast as possible-They've done so as USA has done. They expect that an invasion could come within a week or within the next two days.
End edit

Markus

[Skybird]

NATO will not get engaged in fighting, dont worry. Biden made that clear, saying that Americans needing rescue form Ukraine because they had not left in time, will not trigger any kind of rescue operation and are on their own, and that US troops shooting at Russians would translate into world war. Bidenwill stay out of any combat action, so will the rest of Europe, the latter for not having the capacity to do so, but also no will. Its a deeply corrupt, failed state, nobody will accept risks and losses for such political construction.



Well, maybe the Germans will send Tante Käthe from the German defence ministry, she lightens the mood of the Ukrainians with homemade bread and butter, and fresh, still warm appel pie from the tray, and grandma's homemade stew served from 5000 German steel helmets. With a full and warm belly the warfighting already feels twice as good.

[mapuc]

NATO will not get engaged in fighting, dont worry. Biden made that clear, saying that Americans needing rescue form Ukraine because they had not left in time, will not trigger any kind of rescue operation and are on their own, and that US troops shooting at Russians would translate into world war. Bidenwill stay out of any combat action, so will the rest of Europe, the latter for not having the capacity to do so, but also no will. Its a deeply corrupt, failed state, nobody will accept risks and losses for such political construction.



Well, maybe the Germans will send Tante Käthe from the German defence ministry, she lightens the mood of the Ukrainians with homemade bread and butter, and fresh, still warm appel pie from the tray, and grandma's homemade stew served from 5000 German steel helmets. With a full and warm belly the warfighting already feels twice as good.

I hope you right.
Except one thing-Which none of us expect-The Russian continue the invasion to Poland, Estonia, Letland a.s.o

In my editing in my last post I wrote
"They expect that an invasion could come within a week or within the next two days."
This made me wonder-Wasn't something about Olympic Truce which Russia has sign and what will their new friend China say about getting the OL spoiled by war in Ukraine.

Edit
"there is no Russian crisis, just as there has never been a pandemic. It's all created by the media. They create a false really to gain power over us by creating fear.
And now they are after Putin because he does not want to play "the new world order"

(This was an answer to a friend who wrote that she was nervous about the crisis)

End edit

Markus

[Jeff-Groves]

They do invade? Most of their Subs get blown out of the water.
Then they have to worry about the stealth stuff we have developed since Iraq.
If they want examples? They will get them on invasion.
:haha:

[Catfish]

^ The US government has said it wil do nothing in case of an invasion of the Ukraine :hmmm:

[Jeff-Groves]

^ The US government has said it wil do nothing in case of an invasion of the Ukraine :hmmm:

And Putin said he's NOT gonna invade.
So what's the problem and Who do you believe?

[mapuc]

^ The US government has said it wil do nothing in case of an invasion of the Ukraine :hmmm:

May remember wrong. Seem to recall that Biden promised to send weapon but no boots on the ground.

Markus

[Jeff-Groves]

No Boots don't mean jack!
Only reason you put Boots on the ground is to claim that ground with Troops.
What if one only wants to wipe other Troops and leave a wide swatch of dead behind for others to bury?

[Skybird]

The Russians will not attack Baltic states or Poland. I say that is definite. I waste not one second of thought on this. They are not dumb.

But they are determined to get what they originally wanted from the Ukraine game. And I think they do not care much what it costs them, sanction-wise.

US massively boosting troops that go to Poland, though. Originally 2000 to Germany, Poland and the Bltic states. Now 3000 to Poland alone, and more to Romania.

Still, what Russia has in Belarus is not enough to roll up the Baltic region.

I think they have those two huge formations up North for simple geographic reasons. Kiev is split from North to South by huge river Dnjepr. And the Dnjepr just north of the city turns into a lake, over a length of 60-70 km in North-South direction, and 15-20 km wide. That is an obstacle army units find difficult to negotiate around in order to pince-attack Kiew. So the formations in Belarus will approach Kiev from the NorthWest, and west of the Dnjepr, and the formations they have where the three countries share borders, which is NorthEast of Kiev and east of the Dnejpr, will attack from there. Both groups will will blitz for Kiev on different sides of that lake north of Kiev.

If they attack. I do not know whether they will or not. But if, then it will be this way, I am certain. They must not occupy the whole country, its huge. Blitz into Kiev, and various options along the coast, certainly formalising the recognition of the Donbass region as a state idependent from the Ukraine, or turning it all into Russian province alltogether. In the end, it probably will be about division of the Ukraine, and ruling the Eastern part by a puppert regime.

I think maybe we all - and I incldue myself - read too much psychology into all this and into Putin. In the end, it may all be quite simple, and materialistically oriented. They want it, and they go to get it. No further interpretation.

For the soldiers fighting, it is even simpler: fight and dont get killed. No clever mind-reading needed.

[mapuc]

Our news channel, our online newspaper is yelling the Wolf is coming...Beware the Wolf is coming. He can start moving within the next 1-2 days or within a week.

NO not going to give me sleepless nights.

If Russia invade Ukraine(there's still this "If") Denmark could be ordered to shut down the gasline that pass Bornholm on it's way to Germany.

What this does to the relationship between Denmark and Germany I don't know. I know Germany is highly depended on gas from Russia.

Markus

[blackswan40]

What about Turkey arn't the very friendly with Ukraine wont the Turks come to Ukraines aid or will they just sit on the fence and have Russia as their new neighbours on Ukraines southern shores of the black sea.

If/when the war starts all it takes is one miscalcuation a border skirmish and some shells land in Poland or Estonia and theres ten-20 Us Casualties or Estonian or Polish for that matter then the thinking of USA and Nato keeping out of it is down the pan even more so if the last delta airlines 757 with 350 Us Nationals on board gets hit by a Russian S-400 then the chit will realy hit the fan.


Or if the Russian invason of the Ukraine is a absolute success all over within 4-7 days will that be the end of Mr kazy ivans demands food for thought :hmmm: if theres more cake on the plate mr putin might fancy another slice.


Theres all different permutations the question of are all the 30 member states of nato singing from the same song sheet if push comes to shove how many will stand upto the plate if theres any division within nato then i can see Onkel Sam bugging out and leaving Europe to the Russian Wolfs and i for one would'nt blame them
the last European Adventure the USA were involed in the synics say you were mugged off the Russians got all of Eastern Europe what did America get 400,000 dead

[Rockstar]

Putin's Ukraine Quagmire
Putin's mostly manufactured crisis risks leaving Russia worse off.

Article by Richard Haass

Originally published at Project Syndicate

February 2, 2022 12:04 pm (EST)

https://www.cfr.org/article/putins-ukraine-quagmire

Russian President Vladimir Putin regularly showcases his skills in judo and other martial arts. Success in these sports often depends on what the Japanese call kuzushi –unbalancing one’s opponent by employing techniques designed to disrupt their physical and mental equilibrium.

Putin has sought to throw the United States and its NATO allies off balance by mobilizing more than 100,000 Russian troops on Ukraine’s border. Having made no secret of his view that Russia and Ukraine are organically tied, Putin may well see re-establishing such a relationship as a way to cement his legacy by removing the perceived ignominy suffered by Russia in the decades following the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Putin may have believed that threatening Ukraine might destabilize the country and provide an opportunity to replace the current, pro-Western government with one much more deferential to the Kremlin. Even more likely, Putin judged that his troop mobilization would intimidate the US and its relatively new president, Joe Biden, into accepting Ukraine’s return to Russia’s sphere of influence.

After all, the US had just carried out a chaotic and near-unconditional withdrawal from Afghanistan. Putin had largely gotten away with annexing Crimea in 2014. And Chinese President Xi Jinping had paid little if any price for rolling back democracy in Hong Kong. From afar, therefore, the US appeared weak, divided, and inward-looking.

Add to that Putin’s lack of respect for America’s European allies. Germany, having unwisely decided to phase out nuclear power, had allowed itself to become more dependent on Russian gas and, as was often true of West Germany during the Cold War, is uncomfortable confronting the Kremlin. Moreover, Putin began his military buildup as winter was approaching, when low temperatures and high fuel prices would give the Kremlin added leverage. The French were focused on their upcoming presidential election, while the United Kingdom was preoccupied with COVID-19, Brexit, and Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s behavior.

In addition, Putin took steps to reduce Russia’s own vulnerabilities, especially to economic sanctions. The country’s foreign-exchange reserves reached a record $630 billion in December 2021, while high oil prices have generated significant government revenue. And China, already providing diplomatic backing, could offer financial help if the Kremlin were to need it.

But while Putin manufactured the Ukraine crisis believing he held a clear advantage vis-à-vis the West, he committed an error that can prove dangerous even for a skilled martial-arts practitioner: he underestimated his opponent.

While Biden and NATO have said they will not intervene directly on behalf of Ukraine, this is not the same as accepting Russian dominance. In fact, the US has organized a comprehensive response. It has sent arms to Ukraine to increase the costs to Russia of any invasion and occupation. There are plans to fortify NATO member countries closest to Russia. Substantial economic sanctions are being prepared. And rerouting gas to Europe would partly offset the possible loss of Russian supplies.

All of which is to say that Putin’s initial thrust failed to score a decisive blow. Those who say that Russia’s president has the West where he wants it have things backwards. Putin has placed himself in an unenviable position: he must either escalate or find a face-saving way to back down.

The US has wisely provided Putin with a diplomatic off-ramp. This could entail a new structure to help underpin European security, as well as arms-control arrangements that would limit the scale and location of a range of systems. A revitalized and revised Minsk process would seek a political settlement in eastern Ukraine that would allow for considerable autonomy for the region’s inhabitants (many of whom are ethnic Russians) and the replacement of Russian soldiers by international peacekeepers. The US has also signaled that Ukraine will not enter NATO any time soon, and then some.

Whether such an outcome will be enough for Putin is uncertain. He is not going to hear what he wants – that Ukraine will never be able to join NATO, or that NATO forces will pull back to where they were more than two decades ago, before the Alliance expanded into Central and Eastern Europe. But Putin will probably have a few weeks to ponder his next steps. He will soon travel to Beijing for the opening of the Winter Olympics – and Xi has likely made it clear that he would not appreciate a war in Ukraine overshadowing the opportunity to showcase China ahead of the Communist Party congress this fall, where he will seek a third term.

Putin does have another option. He could increase Russia’s military presence in the Western Hemisphere, claiming to be doing to the US what it and NATO had done to Russia. But this would be risky, and would do nothing to deal with his concerns in Europe.

It is impossible to predict what Putin will do, and it may be that he has yet to decide. He may well opt for a so-called “minor incursion,” or limited intervention, possibly to increase Russia’s military presence in eastern Ukraine.

Such a course of action would give Putin something to show for his aggressive diplomacy without incurring major penalties, as NATO’s 30 members would be unlikely to reach a consensus on how to respond. It would also be consistent with the martial-arts approach of looking for tactical openings to unbalance one’s opponent.

But such a scenario highlights the limits of martial arts, which are more about tactics than strategy. This largely manufactured crisis in Ukraine risks leaving Russia worse off: controlling slightly more territory, but facing new sanctions, a stronger NATO, and a neighbor whose people have developed a more separate, anti-Russian identity.

When he returns to his dacha, therefore, Putin might be well advised to take up another game closely associated with Russia: chess, where the best players think several moves ahead and respect their opponent.

[Skybird]

I have posted that some days before, Rockstar. ;) :)

[Catfish]

.. and then Russia took Belarus :Kaleun_Goofy:

[mapuc]

If Putin gives the order to invade...then open a new thread War in Ukraine. This thread here has been about the crisis leading up to the war.

Markus

[em2nought]

This is a great big wag the dog to take focus off the failing implementation of the great socialist "new normal". I wouldn't doubt Russia is being paid with our taxpayer dollars to make this stink. :hmmm:



Who'd have thought the banner of freedom would be carried on Canadian trucks? :salute:

[Rockstar]

Meh, this is Putin just trying to build his legacy. If he isn’t careful Russia’s Far East is going to get gobbled up by China. He needs to pick a side, Russia’s former European Allies from the Great Patriotic War or those land grabbing Chicoms who could care less about Russia.

The thing is with NATO, Russians can still be Russians and prosper it can also maintain its own border integrity and the funny thing is NATO would help them do it. It can’t rely on China.

https://www.wionews.com/world/chinas-hunger-for-others-land-knows-no-limits-its-latest-target-is-russia-310561

[Skybird]

This is Putin being threatened in his power. The Ukraine, the civil mood and atmosphere, is a threat to his powerbasis, and several former sovjet provinces have seen dramatic attempts to revolt against the totalitarian leadership recently.

[Jimbuna]

All UK troops are to be withdrawn from Ukraine this weekend as Russia could invade “at no notice”, a defence minister has said.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/all-uk-troops-to-withdraw-from-ukraine-as-russia-could-invade-at-no-notice/ar-AATKZNo?li=BBoPRmx&ocid=mailsignout

[Skybird]

Now, after all: even the endlessly dithering Germans have now, belatedly but finally, got around to issuing an exit notice for Germans still staying in Ukraine. If even the German government, led by its top air-mover, the bubble-Olaf, decides to take this clear step, something must really have happened that justifies the startling from the REM phase of the usual German deep sleep.

Or they just got scared by their own shadows once more.

[Skybird]

According to the NYT (as referred to in German media), the already core-reduced staff in the US embassy in Kiev has started to destroy sensitive documents and sensitive equipment.

In movies we know what this means.

And Macronman has misplaced his flight cape. Probably somewhere under that long table. The Russians will probably find it and make some nice napkins out of it.

[Skybird]

KLM has stopped flying from and to Ukraine.


A Russian warship has chased away a US submarine near the Kurils, according to Russia.


https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-chases-off-us-submarine-its-far-east-waters-moscow-says-2022-02-12/

[Jeff-Groves]

And the False Flags begin.

[mapuc]

And the False Flags begin.


I don't think Putin need an excuse to invade Ukraine-If he want to take the country he will do so.

Markus

[Rockstar]

I think Putin is getting drawn into something he and more importantly his backers really don’t want to get involved in. A long drawn out guerrilla war very close to home.

[Catfish]

When i see this hype and hysteria of the last weeks it seems like Putin has to do something now.
England engaging sending troops and weapons, then withdraw all and the embassy. USA sending troops to Poland, NATO to Latvia and the baltic states. To Poland? Really?
Imagine Putin would just do some announced manoeuvre and withdraw.
I don't think he will since all drive him to do something.. but IF he did it would make the west look like complete idiots.

[Arlo]

I think Putin is getting drawn into something he and more importantly his backers really don’t want ....

http://www.reactiongifs.com/r/2012/10/seriously.gif

[Skybird]

I think Putin is getting drawn into something he and more importantly his backers really don’t want to get involved in. A long drawn out guerrilla war very close to home.
He hhas no backers, but the backer of last instance is himself. His own militaries warned him against attacking, media reported a week or 20 days ago. But where does reporting end and western wishful thinking snd western propaganda begin? We can and never will know. Our media and politicians are as manipulative as theirs.

[mapuc]

Can you invade without invading ?

From a BBC article

Moscow still says it has no plans to invade. But there's a lot the Russians can do without ever setting foot inside Ukraine.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60361983

Markus

[Rockstar]

Your right maybe ‘backers’ isn’t the right word. The ‘sistema’ or the power networks. As a previous article pointed out “Putin’s sistema functions with some elements from the ‘administrative-command’ system of Brezhnev’s socialism. However due to the monetisation of the economy, power networks that used to be aimed at obtaining privileges have become oriented towards monetary income and capital.”

Western sanctions, saber rattling and banging away on the war drums threaten that power networks wealth and place in the world. This may place enough pressure on that power base to find someone else to lead Russia who isn’t so nostalgic for the good old days and more inclined to work with us instead of China.

[ET2SN]

USA sending troops to Poland, NATO to Latvia and the baltic states. To Poland? Really?


Poland went on a spending spree with its military last summer and fall.
They are in no hurry to rejoin the old USSR. :yep:

It could be that Poland views an invasion of Ukraine as a warm up for something bigger. :hmmm:

[sublynx]

Putin has three good reasons to annex at least minor parts of Ukraine.

1. Vanity. He has been re-conquering parts of the Soviet Union/Imperial Russia making his stature in future Russian history books akin a ruler like Peter the Great or Ivan the Terrible - rulers who made Russia stronger and larger after periods of weakness.
2. Divide and conquer. Even a very limited attack will show how little will the West has in really standing up to Russian expansionism. The politicians in the West paid lip service when Russia conquered Tcechnya, parts of Georgia, Crimea and the eastern parts of Ukraine. Russia's further offensive action in the rest of Ukraine would further weaken NATO and the EU. Who would trust or want to join a defense pact or union so divided that it can't defend its interests?
3. Peace. The war in Russian controlled eastern Ukraine has gone on for years. By attacking Putin can force Ukraine to give up on those areas and sign a treaty acknowledging the loss of Crimea and eastern Ukraine.

There are of course reasons not to attack as well. Let's hope those weigh enough to prevent escalation.

[Jimbuna]

I’ve a nice dinner date this week in Kyiv. As things stand, it’s still on
Nope: Daniel Kaluuya stars in new Jordan Peele horror

Vladimir Putin has moved more than 100,000 Russian troops near the Ukraine border, with US officials warning that Moscow could launch an invasion "any day". This comes amid reports that the US Secret Service, CIA, and the Pentagon believe Vladimir Putin could launch an 'aerial bombardment' of Kiev by Wednesday. However, a former British ambassador to Russia has warned that an invasion of Ukraine could spell the end for President Putin.

Sir Roderic Lyne said that senior Russian generals were warning against the potential invasion, instead urging President Putin to focus efforts against China instead.

Speaking to LBC, the former top British diplomat explained why waging war against Ukraine would be unpopular among Russians.

He said: "Putin regards Ukraine as Russian territory. He wrote a 5,000-word essay last summer explaining how Ukraine was really part of Russia.

"But that means if he attacks Ukraine he is attacking those he claims are his own people, like a civil war.

"This is really, really unpopular with most of the Russian people, even with the Russian generals."
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/target-china-not-ukraine-putin-faces-revolt-from-senior-russian-generals-over-war-plan/ar-AATLGjM?ocid=mailsignout&li=AAnZ9Ug

[Skybird]

In the end Putin has pushed so far that now he is kind of trapped himself, too. He cannot just fall back. He must gain some trophy to stay in business, else he is the joke of the world and nobody will ever take him serious anymore.

What he sees as a valid trophy or a valid compensation for a lack of such a trophy, is up to him. We will find out soon enough.

[mapuc]

If Putin should be in a need of an excuse to invade He got this a few days ago.

Russia demanded that Ukraine never becomes a NATO member-NATO and EU has responded to this demand and no it's up to Ukraine and Ukrainians if they want to join NATO or not.

NATO has also rejected Russia's second demand-Leave Eastern Europe.

So Putin has an excuse-Not that he need any.

Secondly
I wonder if these sanction Biden har threaten Putin with-will be so strong and massive as Biden indicate in his talk with Putin.
Something tells me they will be weak-There will be countries in EU who will try hard to weaken them and we have China who will do theirs to remove or weaken them.

Markus

[Skybird]

One year ago, American oil imports from Russia doubled, and rose from 4 to 8% of the total American oil imports. That is due to the sanctions against Venezuela.



Now, Germany imports 55% of its total gas imports from Russia.



Do not mistake gas for oil here, and also consider the different shares of imports of both to both countries. Still, it is clear that Germany is more vulnerable here than America.


Also, SWIFT sanctions and throwing the Russians out of it, enforcing European compliance by snacitoning Europeans as well if they do not play ball, again hits Germany and Europe much ahrder than America. Russia has openly said that if the get banned form the SWIFT system, they will immediately stop delivering any gas or oil to Europe any longer. And how would they get paid if they would deliver them - with SWIFT not available?


I mistook Putin's Russia for too long with the Sovjet Union, which always stuck to its treaties and even did not become as hair-splitting as Putin now practices. However, formally Russia still fulfilly its contracts - its just that gas is rare now, German reserves (mostly adminstered by a Russian company!) are low (due to Russian management making them running low), and mRussia rejects to cinbcrease dleiveries by formalising that wiht new short temr contracts. It says it wants long-term contracts thta lats much longer than the EU's timetables allow. Still, and that is the tricky thing, formally the Russians still comply with their contract obligations. They do not accept the new treaties that the EU would want to get.



Thats often overseen here, I think its also a reason, amongst others, for the Russian policy: they want to destroy the EU's timetables for carbon emission neutrality, because in the long term it destroys their business model with exporting their own gas and oil to Europe, and worse, it puls the dents from their options to blakcmail and wekaen the eU and keep it depending on Russia energy exports. They want - amongst other things - to enforce that the EU must accept longer lasting new treaties keeping Russian oil and gas exports to the EU alive for much longer. Russia only has its military, and its gas , oil and ores, but nor prodction of goods that could found a third pillar of Russian exprt industry. So it plays the cards that it has: gas/oil/ores, and its strong military.



Thats why I do not expect that the Russians will start soon delivering more gas to Germany, Europe, the EU. They could make a quick fortune in the short run, yes, but it would be against their longterm interst doing so. Germany'S dependency with its low gas reserves is part of Russia'S strength.



If you do not believe it, just look how the German chancellor is weaseling and avoids certein critical verbal terminology like the plague.



Why Germany, additonally to the high import quota of energy from Russia, allowed Russian to beocme the dominant amdoisntrator of gas reserve facilities in Germany, although both areas must be kept separate by laws and regulations, is beyond me. I think the politicians simply did not imagine that their close friends in the Kremlin could ever want to abuse that de facto monopoly.



And still, many in the SPD still beleive they hve a special place in and a priviliged direct wire to the heart of Russian policy makers. Illusions die last.

[mapuc]

In my last comment I wrote

"Something tells me they will be weak-There will be countries in EU who will try hard to weaken them"

I thought Germany would be one of them.

Or It's not only Germany who will fight any sanction against Russia.

Hungary and Austria have reportedly been reluctant to slash ties with Mr Putin due to their economic dependence on the Kremlin

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/eu-in-major-rebellion-over-putin-two-countries-break-ranks-and-refuse-to-cut-russia-ties/ar-AATJAae?ocid=winp-st

Markus

[Skybird]

”Ursäkta språket – men vi skiter i västs sanktioner”

- Swedish newspaper Aftonbladet quoting the Russian ambassador to Sweden.

Any questions? :D

[mapuc]

”Ursäkta språket – men vi skiter i västs sanktioner”

- Swedish newspaper Aftonbladet quoting the Russian ambassador to Sweden.

Any questions? :D

Straight and clear answer indeed. (No need of translate is fluently in Swedish)

Markus

[Moonlight]

Putin is probably sat in his office and laughing his bloody bollocks off again, he took the Crimea and the Europeans did nothing, if he takes Ukraine the western governments will still do nothing. Can't anyone see that he's using strong arm tactics to get his own way without any hostilities breaking out, if not then the leaders of the EU are thicker than I thought they were.

The Russian Bear.
The scaremongering media are in a frenzy once more, that's the scenario Putin wanted and the media have delivered it once again, the EU generals will be pissing their pants at the abject state of their armed forces that they might have to use one day, they'll never get to show Putin just how weak and ineffectual they really are or Putin will have his troops marching into every city in Europe within months.

Idiot or Genius.
As it is Putin's backed himself into a corner the daft twat, if he doesn't attack the Ukraine he'll be seen as weak in his own country as well as on the world stage, will that eventually lead to his downfall?, who knows, but I can guarantee that he'll be looking over his shoulder pretty regularly. On the other hand he'll get what he wants with tanks or diplomacy, that's a win win again for Putin.

European War?.
Highly unlikely as they don't have the gonads for one.
Germany are a useless dead duck by the looks of it and Macron has probably raised the white flag of victory in Putin's face already, as for the rest of the European countries they couldn't fight their way out of a wet paper bag and that includes the UK.

Russia Kicks Ass.
More troops will be needed for this scenario and it will need a blitzkrieg to pull it off, but they can punch their way through with quick and deadly strikes if Putin wants to risk it. The payoff will be a huge land grab with the latest modern technology at his fingertips, what's not to like about that, as he got the balls for it?, me thinks he hasn't so this is a pipe dream for him.

The End Game.
Without doing anything Putin will get his way and things will go back to the way they were, well done Putin you pulled off a masterstroke. :up:

[blackswan40]

Now then Mr Moonlight since the Falklands war any Military Aventures Onkle Sam as Been involved in hasn't the British been with the USA shoulder to shoulder so to speak.
First Gulf War 2nd Gulf War and Afganistan and the world knows that the mighty USA did the bigest Bugout in Afganistan and left a job half done.
Thats not been lost on Russia and China if the USA gets involved in a European War in Ukraine they would need the Limey's for target indicators if nothing else :D.
RE the Uk couldn't fight there way out of wet papper bag tell that to the relatives of British Servicemen and Women that died in those conficts.

[Skybird]

Straight and clear answer indeed. (No need of translate is fluently in Swedish)

MarkusWell, for us Germans and you Danes it maybe is easy to translate it, but for English-speaking people... The Russian said, word by word:

"Frankly said, we $h!t on the West's sanctions."

[mapuc]

Well, for us Germans and you Danes it maybe is easy to translate it, but for English-speaking people... The Russian said, word by word:

"Frankly said, we $h!t on the West's sanctions."

I'm a Swedish citizens living in my country of birth. Was born In Denmark and moved with family when I was 10 years old to Sweden-Where I lived for 34 years and then I moved back to Denmark. Going to grow old here in Denmark.

Markus

[mapuc]

As they would care !?

Mr Kuleba said Ukraine had, on Friday, demanded answers from Russia under the rules of the Vienna Document, an agreement about security issues adopted by the members of the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), which includes Russia.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60370541

Markus

[Moonlight]

Now then Mr Moonlight since the Falklands war any Military Aventures Onkle Sam as Been involved in hasn't the British been with the USA shoulder to shoulder so to speak.
First Gulf War 2nd Gulf War and Afganistan and the world knows that the mighty USA did the bigest Bugout in Afganistan and left a job half done.
Thats not been lost on Russia and China if the USA gets involved in a European War in Ukraine they would need the Limey's for target indicators if nothing else :D.
RE the Uk couldn't fight there way out of wet papper bag tell that to the relatives of British Servicemen and Women that died in those conficts.

I am a relative, I had two cousins who died because of tub thumping Prime Ministers who didn't have a bleeding clue as to what they were getting themselves into, Bozo Johnson and his Ministers needs to STFU and let the two potential combatants sort it out diplomatically between themselves.

The military of the UK has been run down for the last 30 years by successive governments and by piss poor generals who don't know how to run a modern army. It was seen in the 1st gulf war, outdated weapons and equipment and its continued unabated ever since, Bozo will be singing Rule Britannia as the troops are leaving for the front lines but he wont be singing it when the body bags are coming back in there thousands.

Lets not forget that the UK haven't fought a modern army since the 2nd World War, so they're in for a massive shock if they intend to lock horns with Russia, I've been reading in our media that soldiers are getting fired for being overweight, alcohol and drug abuse is a major problem as well its been reported, it doesn't instil any confidence in there fighting abilities does it.

This UK government is a bleeding shambles as they can't even stop economic migrants sailing across the English channel every day, when they hear that 50,000 Russian troops and tanks are on the move the House of Commons will have the stench of death pervading its hallowed corridors.

[Catfish]

Hearsay from Comint, though this may also be from intentional US (fake) intel.

America announces (expects?) invasion of Ukraine for february 16th, 2022.
https://yournews.com/2022/02/12/2298685/russia-to-invade-ukraine-wednesday-german-news-report-claims/

Expectance for a test of (russian?) nuclear triad (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_triad) from february 16th to 19th in the areas of Barents sea and a Pacific region. Areas have been defined by coordinates.

[mapuc]

How do you fight Russian propaganda like this ?

https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1492973389971173382

Markus

[Jimbuna]

UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson says the "evidence is pretty clear" that Russia is planning an invasion of Ukraine.

Johnson cuts short a trip to North West England as he says there are "signs that show that there are serious preparations" being made by Russia.

Russia denies plans to invade Ukraine, despite massing 100,000 soldiers on Ukraine's borders and a reported 30,000 close to the Belarus-Ukraine border.

More than a dozen countries, including the UK and the US, have urged their citizens to leave Ukraine amid warnings of an "imminent" invasion.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is set to meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Kyiv later as part of efforts to defuse tension.

Russia wants assurances Ukraine will never be allowed to join Nato - but the alliance's members have opposed this.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-60372815

[mapuc]

If Russia do plan on invading Ukraine they will do so after the exercise they are conducting with Belarus and the naval exercise in the black sea-Both exercise ends Feb 20. There's also this friendship between Russia and China-If Russia attack now during the OL in China-The Chinese may be angry.

Markus

[Jimbuna]

Russia has said that a diplomatic solution to its escalating standoff with the West is still possible.

In a televised meeting, President Vladimir Putin was told that diplomatic talks had not yet been been exhausted.

The comments come after more than a dozen nations urged their citizens to leave Ukraine, and the US said aerial bombardments could begin "at any time".

Russia has always denied plans to invade Ukraine, despite massing more than 100,000 troops on the border.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60379833

[Catfish]

UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson says the "evidence is pretty clear" that Russia is planning an invasion of Ukraine. [...]
If Johnson says something it must be true.
Russia wants assurances Ukraine will never be allowed to join Nato - but the alliance's members have opposed this.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-60372815
So the alliance's members said that Ukraine will join NATO. Otherwise there would have been no problem for such a guarantee.

[Jimbuna]

I think the response was their way of pointing out that any free country has the right to determine for themselves what they want to do in any given set of circumstances rather than that dictated to them by another country.

[Catfish]

Perfectly clear.
So who in the west would have let the Ukraine join NATO, or the EU for that matter? No. one. Not with the corruption and turmoil there, and economic crisis. Maybe possible ten years from now, but even then - why exactly? To provoke Russia? To make the whole world join NATO in the end?

[Jimbuna]

I think the answer to that depends on which conspiracy theory one supports :)

[Jeff-Groves]

I think the answer to that depends on which conspiracy theory one supports :)

I belong to the one that says Russia pulls their Troops back to make the West look like fools.
:har:
And if I'm wrong? It was just a conspiracy theory after all!

[mapuc]

According to these Danish expert there will not be a war-Invasion of Ukraine

Unexpected with the population
Vladimir Putin certainly has no desire to lose the support of the people, and an invasion of the neighboring country will greatly make him unpopular:

https://nyheder-tv2-dk.translate.goog/udland/2022-02-14-eksperter-peger-paa-tre-aarsager-til-at-der-ikke-bliver-krig-i-ukraine?_x_tr_sl=da&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=da&_x_tr_pto=wapp

Markus

[Platapus]

The United States is relocating its embassy operations in Ukraine from the capital Kyiv to the western city of Lviv, citing the "dramatic acceleration in the build-up of Russian forces".

[Skybird]

I think one of the conditions for NATO membership is that the membership-seeking candidate has no territorial conflicts on its grounds or at its borders and is not engaged in any martial or constitutional problems regarding its territorial integrity.



The Ukraine might feel that getting NATO membership would allow them to pull all NATO into a war to retake the Crimean.

[mapuc]

The Ukrainian say the invasion will come this Wednesday 16th of Feb.
(Saw the Ukrainian President talk to the press on our news channel)

Markus

[Platapus]

Reposting this in case anyone wants to understand what it takes to join NATO

Here is a good site that describes how a country can become a member of NATO

https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/topics_49212.htm


Countries seeking NATO membership would have to be able to demonstrate that they have fulfilled certain requirements. These include:

a functioning democratic political system based on a market economy;
the fair treatment of minority populations;
a commitment to the peaceful resolution of conflicts;
the ability and willingness to make a military contribution to NATO operations; and
a commitment to democratic civil-military relations and institutional structures.


Has the Ukraine fulfilled these requirements?

[Skybird]

^

1. No.
2. I don't know.
3. By words: yes, but would deeds follow the words, and what regarding the Crimean? Sothe answer is: unclear.
4. The need us more than we need them.
5. Well, corruption ranks high, and stability ranks low in the Ukraine. LRankling lists of related world indices also express this.


BTW, also a reminder: there is no right that a candiate cna demand acceptance even beyond these five criteria. He can ask, but the alliance always has the right to simply say No for whatever a reason. There is never a claim for membership.


Same is true regarding the EU, btw. No state has automatic claim for membership even if he fulfills the demanded criteria.

[mapuc]

^ To say it simple-They are fare from being a NATO candidate.

Markus

[Skybird]

An excursion: looking beyond the Ukraine crisis, to see how it is embedded in a greater context. The Ukraine crisis in reality is a crisis by Russia, and Russia poses a crisis for the West because the West itself is in crisis, named "Westlessness" and "learned helplessness" (a term from a psychological concept by Martin Seligman).

https://www.dw.com/en/munich-security-report-a-grim-analysis-of-a-wave-of-global-crises/a-60765510


Meanwhile:
The head of the Rossiya Sevodnya state news agency, Dmitry Kiselyov, spoke in a TV program on Sunday (Feb. 13, 2022) of thousands of civilians being "tortured and cruelly killed" in the eastern Ukrainian region of Donbass. There is no evidence for his claims.

Following this statement by the Russian agency chief, the TV station showed an interview with a pro-Russian separatist fighter in combat fatigues and machine gun at the ready, standing in a foxhole. The latter claimed to the filming camera crew that Ukrainian nationalists had threatened to kill all people of Russian origin and "hang children from wires." "I won't let that happen, just like everyone else here won't," the militant says. One will lie in wait and the Ukrainian "enemy" will not get past them, he said.

[Catfish]

I belong to the one that says Russia pulls their Troops back to make the West look like fools.
:har:
And if I'm wrong? It was just a conspiracy theory after all!
:03:"Russia says some troops returning from Ukraine border"
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-60372815

edit: whatever Russia does or does not in Ukraine, Russia will still execute its nuclear triad manouvres firing ballistic and cruise missiles from tomorrow, february 16th to 19th, in the Barents sea and pacific/Ochotsk region. No wonder they chased that sub away.

https://i.imgur.com/FvLnQo6l.jpg

https://en.topwar.ru/190809-v-rossii-anonsirovali-provedenie-strategicheskih-uchenij-jadernoj-triady-grom.html

https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/security/2022/02/russia-activates-aviation-danger-alert-north-norway-days-high-tensions

[Platapus]

There are currently 30 nations in NATO. The Republic of North Macedonia became the latest country to join the Alliance on 27 March 2020.


In order for a country to join NATO, a unanimous acceptance decision from ALL existing NATO countries is necessary. One country can "black ball".



Would all 30 NATO countries agree to admit Ukraine, if doing so will increase tensions in the region?

[Skybird]

Ask the Bulgarians and call it game over. They are the most Russophile people in NATO. At least 50% of them are said to be pro Russia. As many were polled to be against NATO reinforcments to Bulgaria over the current crisis.

Greece, due to its orthodox Christian tradition, also is quite pro Russian.


LaoTse already mentioned that small countries (=weak countries) must adapt to the big blokes around their block: tyrants and powerful kingdoms at their borders that are superior in power to them. That is not fair, that might not be just, but that is how it is: practical life's necessities.

If this conflict should not boil up again and again in the future, a so-called Finlandization of the Ukraine probably would be the best - in the meaning of: the only realistic - option with a certain minimum chance to work (sure of that I am not). However, I think that different to Finland, Russia will never abstain from more or less meddling with Ukraine internal power balances and politics. For Russia accepts Fins to be different than Russians, but Putin denies that there is a separeate ethnic group and people like "Ukrainians", and sees them all as Russians (and Russia's ) anyway. Hiw this Finlandization would work in the very long run, is an open question, therefore. Possible that over the coming two, three, four decades the Ukraine nevertheless would fall to Russia due to internal erosion of resistence to that.



The reported partial withdrawle of trroops I would take wioth caution. They do not report the domejnsion of this withdrawel, and it falls together with Scholz' visit in Moscowe, so it could be a feint to take the wind out of his sails.

[Jimbuna]

There are currently 30 nations in NATO. The Republic of North Macedonia became the latest country to join the Alliance on 27 March 2020.


In order for a country to join NATO, a unanimous acceptance decision from ALL existing NATO countries is necessary. One country can "black ball".



Would all 30 NATO countries agree to admit Ukraine, if doing so will increase tensions in the region?

That's a big NO from me.

[Jimbuna]

Russia's defence ministry says some troops positioned on the border with Ukraine are returning to their bases after completing drills.

It raises hopes that tensions could ease but military exercises continue and it's unclear how many units are being withdrawn.

"When we see a withdrawal, we will believe in a de-escalation," Ukraine's foreign minister says.

The head of the Nato defence alliance says he hasn't seen de-escalation yet but that signals from Moscow give some cause for optimism.

The EU says it is willing to discuss Russia's security concerns but warns a key Russian gas pipeline to Germany would "not become operational" in the event of war.

Germany's leader Olaf Scholz is meeting Vladimir Putin in Moscow as diplomacy continues.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson is hosting an emergency Cobra meeting to discuss the UK's response.

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CtvLqWhi6W4

[Jimbuna]

If this is a genuine withdrawal I think it will have come about from those people in dark corners who are the real controllers of Putin, realising their assets or a fair proportion of them would come under threat.

If the above is true then all that remains is a face-saving agreement to be worked out.

[sublynx]

I wonder if something was promised to Putin. Ukraine will not be admitted to NATO, or Donetsk, Luhansk and Crimea given to Russia?

"The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting.", wrote Sun Tzu. But was it the West or Russia that won?

[mapuc]

Russia withdraw troops from the border-De eskalation our news paper write-I say don't hold your breath-They will be substituted with fresh manpower.

A Soldier can be on alert for so many days then he must rest-Fatigue.

Markus

[Skybird]

In the short term, the West may have bought some time.

In the longer run Russia may have won on its strategic objectives.

Many overlook that North Stream 2 is already the second such pipeline, there already is one in place that runs almost parallel to it since many years, its open and its used, and of course Russia installed it as a weapon to bypass and isolate the Ukraine already back then - and probably to push Germany in dependency from Russia. Its clear to see who has the longer breath and perspectives here. Germany it is not - German life lies have been mercielssly exposed and thrown out of the window by Putin, giggling.

For the Russians, the red line was crossed at the latest when NATO invited Georgia and Ukraine to ask for membership talks. That was when the Russians minds went into battle mode. The Georgia war was the result, and a few years later the Crimean annexation was the result, and if the West still thinks it can just act naturally against formulated Russian strategic core interests, then the current situation still could easily lead to an overall war over the Ukraine.

Some things you just do not do. You do not send parachuting UN blue helmets into Tibet. You do not send Russian combat forces and missiles to Cuba or Mexico. You do not set NATO troops up in the Ukraine.

Thats the reality we have to live with, and reality is this way - and no other way at all. It might not be perfect or fair or moral, but its what there is, and there ain't no other reality than this.

[Skybird]

Russian Duma calls on Putin to recognize Donetsk and Luhansk as independent states.


Or better: Putin told it to call him to do so. :03:

[Jimbuna]

I suspect the latter.

[mapuc]

Russian Duma calls on Putin to recognize Donetsk and Luhansk as independent states.


Or better: Putin told it to call him to do so. :03:


Please explain for me in plain English what this step mean for the ongoing Ukrainian crisis.

Markus

[Rockstar]

I belong to the one that says Russia pulls their Troops back to make the West look like fools.
:har:
And if I'm wrong? It was just a conspiracy theory after all!

Our media would never allow a Russian withdrawal to be seen as anything less than a major victory for the west. Putin Blinks First will be the headline.

Also, let’s not forget he pulled the rug right out from under everyone with Crimea. But invading Ukraine? I don’t think there was any intent to invade the entire country. But he may have been testing the waters to see if he could have gotten away with occupying the Donbass.

[Skybird]

Please explain for me in plain English what this step mean for the ongoing Ukrainian crisis.

Markus

The trophy Putin wants and needs to not invading the whole Ukraine. The "face-saving" way out of this.

These regions as independent states de facto are then Russian vasalls, allies. And another inflammatory wound in the Ukraine's flank, keeping Moscow in game with Ukrainian internal policies.

Ort its just a relativization of the announcement of an troop withdrawel. Its Russian tactics since long time to do two mutually contradicting things simultaneously to confuse the opponent and keep him off balance.

Its also another provocation that maybe is meant to still go to war, but making the West responsible for it after it has rejected to accept this Russian step: then he can say "it is your fault, we showed you a way out and you said No."

[mapuc]

Thank you Skybird.

Why do I have the feeling it will deepen the crisis even more-Not from Russian side though, but from the Ukrainian side of the table.

Markus

[Skybird]

Thank you Skybird.

Why do I have the feeling it will deepen the crisis even more-Not from Russian side though, but from the Ukrainian side of the table.

Markus
The only one "deepening" the crisis here is Russia. Ukraine is the victim.

[mapuc]

The only one "deepening" the crisis here is Russia. Ukraine is the victim.

Yes Ukraine is the victim here. What I meant was that Ukraine does not approve the step taken by the Russian Dumas. They will do anything to retake these two region.

Another thing-They(The Ukrainian) say Russia will attack tomorrow 16th of Feb.

Going to be interesting to see if it happens- Or Maybe you right Putin has got a face-saving by acknowledge these two Region.

Markus

[Jimbuna]

The only one "deepening" the crisis here is Russia. Ukraine is the victim.

UK can't believe anything Russia says, senior MP says

The UK should "not believe anything that's coming out of Moscow", the chairman of the Commons Foreign Affairs Committee has said.

Earlier today, Russia said some troops positioned on the border with Ukraine were returning to their bases.

But Conservative MP Tom Tugendhat told BBC Radio 4's World at One programme: "[Russia] have lied and lied and lied and, surprisingly, are continuing to lie."

Addressing whether Russia would invade Ukraine, he said: "Only one person knows and he ain't speaking. And that's Vladimir Putin. We're dealing with a one-man band here."

Tugendhat says Russia's foreign ministry is "simply the barking dog outside the house of a mafia don... It's just there to make a noise".

Helpful comments or otherwise?

[Skybird]

Yes Ukraine is the victim here. What I meant was that Ukraine does not approve the step taken by the Russian Dumas. They will do anything to retake these two region.

Which is understandable, but still the main reason for me why I do not want to have them in NATO, no matter what. Biden was right a few days ago: when Americans - or NATO troops, for that matter - start to shoot at Russians, then that is a world war going up. The Ukraine, corrupt and failed as it is, to me is not worth a world war.

[Jimbuna]

Then, as if things couldn't get any worse.

Ukraine's Eurovision singer Alina Pash suspended

"I'm Alina Pash. The Pash stands for passion."

The 28-year-old Ukrainian singer says she's ready to represent her country at this year's Eurovision in May, after winning a TV competition on Saturday.

Ukraine's national broadcaster UA:PBC has now "suspended" its agreement for her to be the country's representative at the song contest in May.

Authorities are investigating a 2015 trip she made to Crimea, an area Russia seized control of in 2014.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/newsbeat-60388401

:O:

[mapuc]

It's interesting to read other peoples response to the article being posted on FB or Twitter. Many are convince there's no crisis, no 100000 Russian soldiers near the Ukrainian border-It's a made-up story by our politicians here in the west.

There are those who are Pro-Putin in their comments.

There are those who want a war between Russia and NATO.

I Hope there will not be a war between these two-It would histories shortest WWIII.

Markus

[Moonlight]

I don't think a war was ever on the cards in the Ukraine, Putin just has to flex his muscles and every military man in the west stands to attention all bug eyed while they're pissing their pants. :haha:
What this debacle has shown to Putin is that the western european nations are weak and disunited, he'll work on that using propaganda and diplomacy and if he wants to make a significant landgrab later on the west will still be talking strategy as the Russian tanks are rolling through half a dozen european capitols. :o

[Skybird]

A huge DDoS cyberattack is being reported by the Ukraine, targets were the defence ministry and two state banks. Scale and dimension as well as done damage so far are not known. The attacked networks were not accessible.

[Jeff-Groves]

The attacked networks were not accessible.
If True? Then they certainly WERE accessible at some point.

[mapuc]

^^^ If Putin gives the order Ukraine can expect morally support from NATO and some weapon. NATO will under any circumstances have peace with Russia.

NATO is also divided when it comes to Ukraine. Putin know this.

This lead to next question-If Ukraine tomorrow, who will be next ?
The Swedish Island Gotland

I don't think he's going to touch former state, like Poland, Bulgaria-Not yet.

(NO Ukraine shall not become a NATO member)

Markus

[Skybird]

If True? Then they certainly WERE accessible at some point.
Of course. I assume even Ukrainian banks offer online banking, and even the Ukrainian defence ministry may offer some public relation sites.



A DDoS attack, AFAIK, means that the attacked networks get flooded with more incoming mail requests than can be handled, so the whole system boggs down. Whether just that was the purpose or was just a smoke screen to cover data theft and sabotaging servers and databanks, I dont know.

[Skybird]

^^^ If Putin gives the order Ukraine can expect morally support from NATO and some weapon. NATO will under any circumstances have peace with Russia.

NATO is also divided when it comes to Ukraine. Putin know this.

This lead to next question-If Ukraine tomorrow, who will be next ?
The Swedish Island Gotland

I don't think he's going to touch former state, like Poland, Bulgaria-Not yet.

(NO Ukraine shall not become a NATO member)

Markus
No, the Northern theatre is too stable as if Russia currently could gain anything up there when stirring the pot, and the Swedes and Fins already are up in arms and have moved closer to joining NATO.

The South-Eastern region however promises tempting opportunities, still.

[Jeff-Groves]

Government Sites and Banks do have what I call Front Doors for the average person to use.

Not a single place at THAT level can be dropped from Government/banking business needs by Ddos. There is ALWAYS a Back Door! Most back doors are VERY HARD sited. Most even not connected to the 'Net but dedicated HARD LINES.
So a Ddos attack is intended to panic the average public.

And it's not mail requests. It's a flooding of packet requests. I send a crap load of requests for response to overwhelm the answering Servers.
From one Computer it's a simple Dos attack. Ddos means MANY computers are doing the same thing.

Any good site can drop a Dos or Ddos attack with a few simple commands.
Even if they are bouncing their IP trail.

[mapuc]

No, the Northern theatre is too stable as if Russia currently could gain anything up there when stirring the pot, and the Swedes and Fins already are up in arms and have moved closer to joining NATO.

The South-Eastern region however promises tempting opportunities, still.

From the beginning of the 90'ies Sweden carried out a massive disarmament-Conscription was abolished in the year 2000. Many flotillas were closed down and today there are probably 3-4 airfields left. It was not until 2010 that Sweden began to arm itself again — though not at the same pace as they disarmed.

In the 80'ies Soviet would need 14 days to take control over Sweden-Today Russia can do it within a week.

Back to discuss the Ukrainian crisis.

Markus

[Skybird]

From the beginning of the 90'ies Sweden carried out a massive disarmament-Conscription was abolished in the year 2000. Many flotillas were closed down and today there are probably 3-4 airfields left. It was not until 2010 that Sweden began to arm itself again — though not at the same pace as they disarmed.

In the 80'ies Soviet would need 14 days to take control over Sweden-Today Russia can do it within a week.

Yes, but the social and ethnic realities are very different with Norway, Sweden and Finland, than they are with the Ukraine, Bulgaria, Turkey with its own power ambitions. The playing field "Black Sea" is more unstable and thus dynamically alterable, than Scandinavia. Also, the threat level for Russia is smaller from Scandianvia, while the ukraine is of high stratgeic relevance for it. Finally, Scandinavia never was a Warsaw Pact vasall.

[Skybird]

FOCUS writes:

Allegedly, parts of Russian troops are retreating from the Ukrainian border. Does this make an invasion less likely? Harald Kujat, ex-inspector general of the Bundeswehr, calls the maneuver a move by Putin to show up the United States.

Shortly before German Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on Tuesday, a report caused a worldwide stir. According to Interfax, the first non-governmental news agency in Russia, a partial withdrawal of troops on the Ukrainian border has begun.

Is this the beginning of an easing of tensions in the conflict, after signs there had recently been increasingly pointing to war? Or is the danger of a Russian invasion still high?

It is still unclear how many troops Putin intends to withdraw from the border. But Harald Kujat, ex-inspector general of the Bundeswehr, has no doubt that this is a move coolly calculated by Putin. "He wants the Americans to be put in the wrong by this. After all, they had claimed a few days ago that the invasion would take place this Wednesday." So, with a partial troop withdrawal, Putin would be giving the U.S. the lie.

General Kujat is considered an expert on the relationship between NATO and Russia, which he himself helped shape for a long time - especially from 2002 to 2005 as chairman of the NATO Military Committee. As far as the possible danger of an invasion of Ukraine by Russian troops is concerned, however, he considers international fears to be unfounded. After all, two basic prerequisites would have to be in place for a war: the ability to wage it and win it, as well as the intention to do so.

Russia undoubtedly has the capability to wage such a war, Kujat tells FOCUS Online. "But does the country also have the intention to do so? No! And the troop presence on the Ukrainian border is by no means sufficient proof of this," Kujat says. Even U.S. President Joe Biden had confirmed that not long ago. "A capability without a simultaneous intention does not yet result in a threat militarily." That's why he doesn't think much of the "howls of war" on the international stage.

Kujat cites three reasons for this. "First, Russia would have to rebuild the country after an invasion that would leave great damage in its wake. Second, there is the danger of a guerrilla war that would drag on for years. And third, the painful losses in the war in Afghanistan are still very present in the Russian population." All of these, Kujat said, are serious reasons militarily, politically, financially and also socially to oppose military intervention.

Putin has a clear goal, Kujat says. With the soldiers on the Ukrainian border, he says, the Kremlin chief wants to prevent Ukraine from "becoming an aircraft carrier for NATO." In doing so, he says, the West repeatedly makes the mistake of claiming that each country is free to decide for itself whether it wants to become a member of NATO. "This is all nonsense. Because this decision depends not only on potential member states, but requires the consent of every single NATO state."

U.S. President Biden, however, has since made it clear on several occasions that he would never deploy troops to Ukraine, he said. "By doing so, NATO would be importing a potential war with Russia into the alliance states." Which could have disastrous consequences for the entire world - "including the risk of nuclear war." This, in turn, clearly contradicts the condition that new NATO membership must represent a "gain for alliance security," he said.

And there is another reason that would speak against Ukraine's NATO membership: the democratic state of the candidate country. After all, the "internal constitution" of each candidate country must be in line with the basic democratic principles of the NATO member states. And this is not the case in Ukraine. Because for years the country should have granted greater rights to Russian minorities, Kujat says.


In recent days, it has become apparent that an announcement by NATO that it will refrain from allowing Ukraine to join for the foreseeable future could bring a peaceful solution to the conflict. In 2014, former U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger said that Ukraine should not become an "outpost" for either Russia or the West. Kujat: "Ukraine should adopt a consolidated neutrality and grant more autonomy to Russian minorities."

But what steps is Putin taking now? Foreign policy expert Thomas Jäger of the University of Cologne is very skeptical in view of the withdrawal announcement. He knows that Putin is probably the most experienced political poker player on the international stage - and considers the information about the alleged withdrawal to be "thin." "We don't know which troop units are involved, where they are withdrawing to, and whether it might be just another tactical maneuver."

For Jäger, it is obvious that Putin still wants to keep the pressure up. After all, he says, open warfare is not actually in Putin's interest. The Kremlin chief, he says, wants to tie Ukraine as closely as possible to Russia, to win over the population, perhaps even to install a pro-Russian government. "You can't achieve that with open war. That's why I think the most likely scenario is that Putin will rely on hybrid warfare, sabotaging energy supplies, for example, and using propaganda to create sentiment against the government in Kiev."

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)

[mapuc]

Yes, but the social and ethnic realities are very different with Norway, Sweden and Finland, than they are with the Ukraine, Bulgaria, Turkey with its own power ambitions. The playing field "Black Sea" is more unstable and thus dynamically alterable, than Scandinavia. Also, the threat level for Russia is smaller from Scandianvia, while the ukraine is of high stratgeic relevance for it. Finally, Scandinavia never was a Warsaw Pact vasall.

I tried to speculate in which areas Putin could take without NATO activate their article 5. Gotland and part of Sweden, Southern part of Finland is areas he can take-Not saying will. Sweden and Finland is very close to a NATO membership-Not a member yet and as I said earlier NATO will do anything to prevent a war with Russia.

But I think he will invade and occupy part of Ukraine-These two region you mentioned earlier-and he will settle with this

Markus

[Catfish]

"Russian ambassador to the EU told Die Welt, “As far as Russia is concerned, I can assure you that there will be no attack this Wednesday." “There will be no escalation in the coming week either, or in the week after that, or in the coming month...Wars in Europe rarely start on a Wednesday," Chizhov added, according to DW.
Russia will wait for a proper answer from the US to the russian proposal, which has not yet been delivered. When i read what Liz Truss has said (whatever she thinks she has to do with the situation) and this also is the US position, i take it there will be a bit of tension.

[Catfish]

How do you fight Russian propaganda like this ?
https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1492973389971173382
Markus
When Navalny was imprisoned, after he had been poisoned and fell in a coma, the whole world protested.
After the russian narrative that he was a 'fascist' a lot of people (including here at the forum) suddenly changed their mind, as if there was truth in it. If they had written that he raped women and burned babies alive some would have also believed that. Propaganda works worldwide, you cannot "fight" the gullible.

[Catfish]

What a load of hysteria this has been. And what it is probably about:

The oft-quoted number of 100,000 troops near to Ukraine may give people the impression that tanks are ready to roll over the border, but this number includes those normally stationed in Russia's many bases in the south of the country, according to the BBC.

Why American media was reporting Ukrainian expectations of war for February 16
A translation from American news media seemed to suggest Ukraine was bracing for war on Wednesday, despite weeks of attempts to calm tensions by President Zelensky's government.
A sarcastic quip from the former comedian-turned-politician appeared to be the first acceptance from Ukraine that war was imminent.

The translation in English was: We are told that February 16 will be the day of the attack.

His spokesperson later clarified that he had been merely referencing other media reports, but not before the story was ran by numerous news outlets, such as CNN in the US.

In reality, the Ukrainian president was joking that Ukraine would hold a national day of celebration to ease fears from an invasion. The Ukrainian economy has been under pressure since western media has continuously ratcheted up the likelihood of conflict.

Some US media misreported his comments, losing them in translation. Zelenskyy himself was clear in the speech. The whole address was dedicated to calming panic, not warning people Russia will attack on Wednesday.




Others write that fresh russian troops are advancing to the ukrainian border.

Oh no. Anyway.

[Skybird]

A cluster of 100,000 armed men is a mob.

A setup with 100 Russian-doctrine battle batallion is an army.

The Americans wanted to not lose the info and media war again like in 2014, so they warned early and said Wednesday might be the day. That was a mistake, it almost invited the Russiand to score easily at the Americans cost by staging a claimed withdrawel just before Wednesday to make Washington look stupid.


NATO says there is no pullback visible so far, and that Russian units are just moving back and then forward again. Also, that the Russians continue to build field hospitals along the border.

[Rockstar]

A couple of reasons IMO why U.S. media is harping on Russia. I think because COVID is over we need a new boogie man. Second, it also gears up the public towards a confrontation. It’s harder for an adversary to overcome or just walk across a border occupy a land when he’s been demonized and a whole nation is ready for a war.

Further I don’t recall anyone here thinking Navalny was a fascist. I don’t think he or anyone here can define what that means anyways. I know I called him a useful idiot and hoped like hell if we were going to do this we could find someone with better credentials than that moron. And I also called out the media narrative the poison could only be made by Putin. When in fact you could buy the book State Secrets from Amazon and get the ingredients.

[mapuc]

What I hope is the truth, is not the same as reality.

I hope they withdraw the troops all 150000 of them within the next 14 to 21 days.

Markus

[Jimbuna]

Russian officials have been mocking the West over warnings that Moscow could launch an invasion of Ukraine on 16 February - that's today, if you've not looked at your calendar.

Ukraine declared a "day of unity" after the date was suggested by US officials and widely reported.

"I'd like to ask if US and British sources of disinformation... could publish the schedule of our upcoming invasions for the year. I'd like to plan my holidays," Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova wrote in a Facebook post.

Russia's envoy to the European Union, Vladimir Chizhov, meanwhile said wars in Europe "rarely start on Wednesdays".

"This may not be a strong enough guarantee, but I can assure you that, as far as Russia is concerned, there will be no attack this coming Wednesday," he added. "Nor will there be any escalation next week or the week after, or next month."

Russia's deputy ambassador to the United Nations, Dmitry Polyanskiy, is reported to have quipped that Western leaders should see a doctor for their "paranoia".

Russia has announced that it is pulling troops back from Ukraine's border but Nato - the western military alliance - says it doesn't see any "de-escalation" on the ground, and that in fact, Russia is continuing its military build-up.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-60399710

[Catfish]

[...] Further I don’t recall anyone here thinking Navalny was a fascist. I don’t think he or anyone here can define what that means anyways. I know I called him a useful idiot [...] Yes you did, quoting RT media, and you also called Navalny a fascist and a Nazi, just use advanced search and enter Rockstar for author and Navalny for keyword ;)
But let's not split hairs, as you wrote back then Navalny has some skeletons in his closet, which may be true. If this justifies what Russia did and does to him .. well it's Russia Putin after all.

Back on topic re Ukraine there's a lot going on under the bonnet, and we will be the last to know.

[Jimbuna]

Back on topic re Ukraine there's a lot going on under the bonnet, and we will be the last to know.

Most definitely :yep:

[Jeff-Groves]

Anyone checked what the Las Vegas odds are for Invasion?
:hmmm:

[Skybird]

Stoltenberg and Blinken said today not only has Russia not withdrawn troops, but it has increased the troop levels at the border.


The meeting between Scholz and Putin should have been very cold, it was to be seen, heard and felt during their press conference as well. Both the talks and the lunch lasted shorter than was expected and are typical for Putin's standards, observers said. It seems things went not the way any of the two hoped they would.

[mapuc]

I have only one simple hope-That there will not be a war an invasion of Ukraine. The Russian will withdraw their troops next week and in 14 days from now this thread will be found on page 4.

A new crisis will occur somewhere in the World-Which we of course will discuss

Markus

[Jimbuna]

Nato to look at establishing new battle groups

Stoltenberg says Nato will look at establishing new battle groups in central and south-east regions within the alliance - such as Romania - as part of the defensive strategy against Russian aggression.

He says military commanders will work on details and report back in weeks and there will be ongoing discussion on how Nato's defence can remain strong.

An additional $270bn dollars will be spent on defence, the secretary general says.

[Jeff-Groves]

It's all intended to attract attention from the on-going Battle with the Reptilian Aliens from a different Planet anyway.
Saw it on TV so it must be true!
:haha:

[Rockstar]

Yes you did, quoting RT media, and you also called Navalny a fascist and a Nazi, just use advanced search and enter Rockstar for author and Navalny for keyword ;)
But let's not split hairs, as you wrote back then Navalny has some skeletons in his closet, which may be true. If this justifies what Russia did and does to him .. well it's Russia Putin after all.

Back on topic re Ukraine there's a lot going on under the bonnet, and we will be the last to know.

No I did not, I quoted and linked a NYT article which stated he was associated with extremist groups. Why don’t you use advance search.

[Rockstar]

In case you’re having trouble with those advance search features here’s the links I posted. Which caused me to conclude if we’re going to back someone find someone with better credentials than this clown.

https://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/10/world/europe/the-saturday-profile-blogger-aleksei-navalny-rouses-russia.html

MR. NAVALNY has Nordic good looks, a caustic sense of humor and no political organization.

Five years ago, he quit the liberal party Yabloko, frustrated with the liberals’ infighting and isolation from mainstream Russian opinion. Liberals, meanwhile, have deep reservations about him, because he espouses Russian nationalist views. He has appeared as a speaker alongside neo-Nazis and skinheads, and once starred in a video that compares dark-skinned Caucasus militants to cockroaches. While cockroaches can be killed with a slipper, he says that in the case of humans, “I recommend a pistol.”

What attracts people to Mr. Navalny is not ideology, but the confident challenge he mounts to the system. A real estate lawyer by training, he employs data — on his Web sites he documents theft at state-run companies — and relentless, paint-stripping contempt. “Party of Swindlers and Thieves” has made its way into the vernacular with breathtaking speed and severely damaged United Russia’s political brand.

He projects a serene confidence that events are converging, slowly but surely, against the Kremlin.

“Revolution is unavoidable,” he told the Russian edition of Esquire, in an interview published this month. “Simply because the majority of people understand that the system is wrong. When you are in the company of bureaucrats you hear them talking about who has stolen everything, why nothing works and how horrible everything is.”

He was less definitive about the future he envisioned for the country, saying only that he hoped it would “resemble a huge, irrational, metaphysical Canada.”…



https://youtu.be/oVNJiO10SWw

[Catfish]

No I did not, I quoted and linked a NYT article which stated he was associated with extremist groups. Why don’t you use advance search.
You never called him a Nazi :hmmm:

"Navalny cockroach video"
Hey not only do I call him a neo nazi based on that NYT article. I've also called him a racist nationalist xenophobe based on his own videos.
But you feel free to continue to support him, he's your hero not mine. I will not. As I said before we should be able to do better than support usefull idiots like the moron in the video
I believe the correct term to describe our neo-nazi good guy would be 'useful idiot'
What I really want to know, is 'Neo-nazi good guy' considered an oxymoron or a paradox?
Don't get me wrong I'm not a Russian spy. It's just that I don't support neo-nazis with homicidal tendencies anymore than they do. And yes, it does seem the U.S. and U.K. might. But don't ignore the four politicians who publicly supported the neo-nazi. and where they came from.

So did you call him a Nazi or what? Maybe he is, but you wrote you never wrote this :03:

[Rockstar]

‘Based on the video”. In which he starred as leading man. What would you call him a saint fighting for freedom and democracy?

[Jeff-Groves]

Neo means New or revived form of.
So technically? He didn't call him a Nazi.
Ya'll like to be picky at this word stuff until it don't suit your point of view.
Calling someone a Neanderthal is an insult. But Neanderthals died out long ago.
Now calling someone a Neo-Neanderthal would be more proper.

Sailor Steve, the usual Grammar Nazi, should tell you that.

[Rockstar]

I’m all for seeing Putin go bye bye and or developing closer ties with Russia. But fer chrissakes let’s at least back someone that isn’t a full on nationalist who stars in a video and likens non-Russians to cockroaches that should be exterminated with a gun.

I suppose he could take his video down and clean up his image. Because let’s it face image is everything it’s what really matters anyway right? But do we really need someone that wants Russia to “resemble a huge, irrational, metaphysical Canada.”? What ever the fark that means. :roll:

[Skybird]

One thing can be taken as certainty, I think: the new cold war is no longer a cold cold war, but a hot cold war.

Too bad it does not help to battle global warming, but for that we have had the Arab Spring. I only wonder what has become of harvesting time from that.

[Rockstar]

From what I’ve read Russian military exercises are supposed to end the 20th I reckon we’ll soon see if Biden was just trying to look like a tuff guy for the sake posterity or all hell really is going to break loose.

Also read a Business Insider article from the 28th of January which wrote a CNN source said Ukraine President Zelensky told Sleepy Joe to basically shut the hell up and stop inciting panic, that Ukraine borders are already hot enough without him talkin’ smack.

[mapuc]

You get different type of feedback depending on which newspaper or news program you see.

Latest few days it has been They attack on Wednesday(yesterday)No attack.
They will conduct a smaller invasion-No invasion happened yet.

If there's going to be an invasion it will be after 20th of Feb.

(I hope I'm wrong-There will not be any invasion)

Markus

[Skybird]

Now there are in total 8000 Russian troops more than 36 hours ago, NATO says.



CNN showed that field bridges for armoured vehicles were built that 36 hours ago were not there.



Former SACEUR Wesley Clark said to him it looks like an invasion, chances for that better than 50%.

[Rockstar]

Should we really be that concerned if Russia wants to occupy areas that are primarily Russian anyway? It’s not like he wants to send tanks into Finland or Mongolia.

https://sputniknews.com/20150425/1021367799.html

[Gerald]

You get different type of feedback depending on which newspaper or news program you see.

Latest few days it has been They attack on Wednesday(yesterday)No attack.
They will conduct a smaller invasion-No invasion happened yet.

If there's going to be an invasion it will be after 20th of Feb.

(I hope I'm wrong-There will not be any invasion)

Markus In fact I don't believe in military aggressive way, like go in to Ukraine, Putin have already high stake in the scenario and he will not go further to develop troops in the country it is for him too risky, he have demonstrate his power and "I think this is enough for him" , it clearly looks like a maskirovka!

[MaDef]

It would be ironic if the troops and equipment turned out to be the Russian version of the First United States Army group.

[Reece]

It's all intended to attract attention from the on-going Battle with the Reptilian Aliens from a different Planet anyway.
Saw it on TV so it must be true!
:haha:
OH No!! How long have we got till we all die a horrible death? :timeout: :k_confused:

[Catfish]

It's all intended to attract attention from the on-going Battle with the Reptilian Aliens from a different Planet anyway.
[...] :haha:
Again, let me out of this :O:

[Catfish]

Should we really be that concerned if Russia wants to occupy areas that are primarily Russian anyway? It’s not like he wants to send tanks into Finland or Mongolia.
https://sputniknews.com/20150425/1021367799.html
No we should not. Just the way Putin speaks of "genocide" in the russian areas is "a bit" overblown? And that he wants to help them, reminds of Georgia and Tchetchenia. But then pretexts for invasions have been used since millenia. I take it that regions with a major russian population will have problems with a western-leaning government, and will be hard to keep in line. On the other hand Russia did a lot to stir the pot here.

Also, as i have said numerous times before, the west is not innocent when it comes to Ukraine's situation. Russia's offers or requests (even to join NATO) have been oh so politely and ever diplomatically turned down time and time again, while NATO crept ever closer to Russia's borders. It was from the 1990ies up to 2007 until Putin was at the end of his tether. All sides are grey here, from dark to light.

Now this Live: "No other path than Nato for Ukraine" - president Volodymyr Zelensky
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/uk-60413332

[Skybird]

The predetermined breaking points. The map shows the percentage of the population of Russian origin, according to the 2001 Ukrainian census.

https://cdn.prod.www.spiegel.de/images/f7bce56d-0001-0004-0000-000000744727_w850_r1.4214046822742474_fpx64.71_fpy 50.jpg


In an ideal world, I would say what I always say in case of conflicts like this, may it be the Basque territory, Catalonia, Ireland, Scotland, Gibraltar, Falkland, wherever: have a referendum of the population in a local region and let them decide, free and uninterferred by external powers, whether they want to side with an external power and become/stay a governed part of that, or be independent. In any case, however, they must pay for their own costs, you cannot be independent while dependign on others to pay your bills. That is a contradiction in itself.

Unfortunately, some counties like the Ukraine lie in the transition zone between "empires", where the influence of the centre fades and the the influence of the other side grows. And empires live by their own logic, that is they cannot continue to exist if allowing being challenged in their periphery without answering to that challenge and winning it. They cannot afford to let such independency movements succeed without loosing themselves in power and relevance.

This contradiciton cannot be solved, and so it all to often gets settled by violence and answering the question who the stronger is. Thats not the ideal life but the real life.

The map shows that 20 years ago the implied Russian argument to have claim for territories due to the Russian share in the regional population only is valid for the Crimean, but neither for Donbass nor Luhansk.

Kiev on the other hand by the Minsk agreement would be obligated to give huge Russian minorities special rights and protection, but has refused to do so, if I can trust the media coverage.

[Jimbuna]

Shelling breaks out in east Ukraine as West and Moscow dispute troop moves.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/shelling-breaks-out-in-east-ukraine-as-west-and-moscow-dispute-troop-moves/ar-AATZ1Ip?ocid=mailsignout&li=BBoPWjQ

[Jimbuna]

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky says joining the Nato alliance is a guarantee of security for his country - and that he will not compromise on this.

He tells the BBC: "It's not an ambition. It's our life."

Russia is opposed to Ukraine ever joining and wants guarantees that this will not happen.

The US and Western allies are warning Russian forces could launch military action any day - but the Kremlin has repeatedly said there are no such plans and claims some units have been withdrawn in recent days.

The world is watching for proof of Russian de-escalation - as a senior US official says contrary to this claim, a further 7,000 troops have arrived at Ukraine's borders.

President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen says the EU will remain vigilant until Moscow's words are reflected on the ground.

UK Foreign Secretary Liz Truss, who is travelling to Ukraine, says the West should not be fooled by Russia's claims.

[Rockstar]

There’s the difference plain as day.

One organization has certain criteria which must be met in order for a country to receive an invitation to join a greater alliance.

The other is like a spoiled child who will throw a tantrum and destroy to gain control of something which doesn’t belong to them.

[mapuc]

I haven't changed my mind on Ukraine-They shall not become a NATO member-They do not fulfill the demands at all far from it.

Markus

[clayton]

If true, this will be the beginning of the end for Putin. Make no mistake.

[Rockstar]

I haven't changed my mind on Ukraine-They shall not become a NATO member-They do not fulfill the demands at all far from it.

Markus

I have that feeling they are far from membership as well. But I do believe it is their choice and right to work towards that goal. Without interference from another because of some nostalgia for sphere’s of influence like the good old days.

[Exocet25fr]

Anyway ! mapuc is right, but don't panic !

In case of Nuke war between Biden and Putine, the European aren't concerned!
Look at the terrestrial globe, in fact the short way between them doesn't go through Europe...!:haha:

[mapuc]

Latest news about Ukraine in our news.

The US Deputy Ambassador has been expelled by the Russians

Russia has today submitted a new list of demands for security guarantees, which must be met if the conflict in Ukraine is to be escalated.

Informs the Russian Foreign Ministry according to Reuters.

The demands mean, among other things, that all arms deliveries to Ukraine must be stopped, that already delivered weapons must be returned and that the Ukrainian government must comply with the Minsk peace agreement. In addition, Russia insists that the United States withdraw its troops in Central and Eastern Europe.

Markus

[clayton]

Latest news about Ukraine in our news.

The US Deputy Ambassador has been expelled by the Russians

Russia has today submitted a new list of demands for security guarantees, which must be met if the conflict in Ukraine is to be escalated.

Informs the Russian Foreign Ministry according to Reuters.

The demands mean, among other things, that all arms deliveries to Ukraine must be stopped, that already delivered weapons must be returned and that the Ukrainian government must comply with the Minsk peace agreement. In addition, Russia insists that the United States withdraw its troops in Central and Eastern Europe.

Markus

That's not happening.

[mapuc]

That's not happening.


Here' some more from another Danish online newspaper

Russia stresses that the country could be forced into a military response if the United States does not meet Russian security requirements.

"In the absence of US willingness to negotiate clear and legally binding guarantees for our security, Russia will be forced to respond, including through military action," it said.

Not looking good at all.

Markus

[clayton]

Here' some more from another Danish online newspaper

Russia stresses that the country could be forced into a military response if the United States does not meet Russian security requirements.

"In the absence of US willingness to negotiate clear and legally binding guarantees for our security, Russia will be forced to respond, including through military action," it said.

Not looking good at all.

Markus

Putin has an opportunity to be a peacemaker here. I hope he takes it.

[mapuc]

He Mr Putin has made his mind up month ago-What he has decided then we can only speculate in what it is.

Full invasion of Ukraine, partial invasion of Ukraine. Invasion of Ukraine and other Eastern countries like Poland, Estonia, Letland...?

He is also the only one who knows when it will happen-Could also be that he is sending a clear message to NATO by these steps.

Markus

[clayton]

He Mr Putin has made his mind up month ago-What he has decided then we can only speculate in what it is.

Full invasion of Ukraine, partial invasion of Ukraine. Invasion of Ukraine and other Eastern countries like Poland, Estonia, Letland...?

He is also the only one who knows when it will happen-Could also be that he is sending a clear message to NATO by these steps.

Markus

Crimea. Putin set the precedent, so any action will be because of him. Make no mistake, there is no Czechoslovakia in his future.

[Rockstar]

On a side note here’s what others are saying…

Jack Matlock, the last U.S. ambassador to the USSR, has one answer:

“Maybe I am wrong – tragically wrong – but I cannot dismiss the suspicion that we are witnessing an elaborate charade, grossly magnified by prominent elements of the American media, to serve a domestic political end. Facing rising inflation, the ravages of Omicron, blame (for the most part unfair) for the withdrawal from Afghanistan, plus the failure to get the full support of his own party for the Build Back Better legislation, the Biden administration is staggering under sagging approval ratings just as it gears up for this year’s congressional elections.

Since clear "victories" on the domestic woes seem increasingly unlikely, why not fabricate one by posing as if he prevented the invasion of Ukraine by "standing up to Vladimir Putin"?

Actually, it seems most likely that President Putin’s goals are what he says they are – and as he has been saying since his speech in Munich in 2007. To simplify and paraphrase, I would sum them up as: "Treat us with at least a modicum of lrespect. We do not threaten you or your allies, why do you refuse us the security you insist for yourself?"

If true, it’s a sad state of affairs for our country on account of Democrats. All they seem to have are conspiracy theories about Trump/Putin collusion, pee tapes, Jan 6th, mandates and fears of war. But I guess Democrat voters a.k.a. Blue anon will be Blue anon and believe everything they’re told

Then there’s Alastair Crooke’s thoughts:



The authoritative Global Times (ChiCom state run news paper) in an editorial warns that the U.S. is instigating conflict in Ukraine in order to tighten bloc discipline – to corral European States back into the U.S.-led fold. No doubt, China makes the connection that Ukraine provides the perfect pivot for shepherding Europe towards America’s next stage of requiring a united front with the U.S. for the later task of barricading-in China, behind her borders.

In play, therefore, are key decisions that will define Europe for the future. On the one hand, (as Pepe Escobar noted some two years ago), “the goal of Russian and Chinese policy is to recruit Germany into a triple alliance locking together the Eurasian land mass à la Mackinder into the greatest geopolitical alliance in history – switching world power in favour of these three great powers, and against Anglo-Saxon sea power”.

And on the other hand, NATO was conceived, from the outset, as a means of Anglo-American control over Europe and more precisely for keeping Germany ‘down’, and Russia ‘out’ (in that old axiom of western strategists). Lord Hastings (Lionel Ismay), NATO’s first Secretary General, famously said that NATO was created to “keep the Soviet Union out, the Americans in, and the Germans down”.

This mindset lingers on, but the formula has acquired today a greater import, and a new twist: To keep Germany ‘down and price uncompetitive’ versus U.S. goods; to keep Russia ‘out’ from being Europe’s source of cheap energy; and to keep China ‘fenced out’ from EU–U.S. trade. The aim is to contain Europe firmly within America’s narrowly defined economic orbit and compelled to forgo the benefits of Chinese and Russian technology, finance and trade – thus helping towards achieving the aim of barricading China within its borders.

(Emphasis mine). This article relies in part on old information and mindset. As the allies officially ended their occupation of Germany in the 50’s and Germany is today an independent nation. What is startling is the voice of the Chinese Communist government a.k.a. Global Times would publish the idea there is a German, Russian, China pact in the works striving to form their own alliance and even accuse the United States of America of standing in their way, WTF over!? Call me crazy and even silly but I can’t help to remember 10 years ago or so didn’t the Polish government warn of a modern day Molotov-Ribbentrop pact between Germany and Putin? Even the Lithuanian Foreign minister chimed in saying “Molotov is alive and looking for a new Ribbentrop,” suggesting Vladimir Putin now like Stalin in 1939 believes he can cut a deal with ‘someone’ in the West (like Germany maybe?) over Eastern Europe? Germany and Russia in love again what a mess. Do we need to come over and kick your ungrateful ass again so the world can sleep in peace?

Seems like this too might be one out of many reasons why the U.K. got the hell out of the German lead E.U. while the gettin was good.


And yes I’ve been drinking. :D

[Sean C]

Should we really be that concerned if Russia wants to occupy areas that are primarily Russian anyway? It’s not like he wants to send tanks into Finland or Mongolia.

Yeah, and maybe we should just let Canada take over the U.S. ... or the other way around. I mean, we're both primarily English-speaking North Americans (both with areas that speak French), right? What's the difference?

:O:

[Skybird]

"From Stoltenberg...?" ------------------ "For your service in federating NATO's consolidation, cohesiveness, and attractiveness."



https://www.fr.de/bilder/2021/02/02/90188918/28265559-karikaturen-von-thomas-plassmann-jeden-tag-neu-in-der-frankfurter-rundschau-2TEevCICwLa7.jpg

[Jimbuna]

Russian President Vladimir Putin will oversee major military exercises on 19 February.

They will involve ballistic and cruise missile launches, and test how ready its nuclear armaments are, Russia says.

The Kremlin says the drills are "fairly regular" and insists they're not an escalation of the standoff with Ukraine.

There are now some 149,000 Russian troops, airmen and sailors surrounding Ukraine, says its defence minister.

World leaders meet in Munich today for an annual security conference, but Russia won't attend for first time since 1999

Russia is "challenging the European peace order" and making Cold War demands, Germany's Foreign Minister says.

Russian troops have been gathering near the Ukrainian border since November, prompting fears of an invasion.

However Russia continues to deny it has plans to invade Ukraine and accuses the West of hysteria.

[Skybird]

The Neue Zürcher Zeitung writes:


There is no doubt about the facts. Satellite images show aircraft, tanks, missile launchers and radar sites - all the equipment necessary for an invasion. Satellites, however, do not reveal Putin's motives. Even U.S. intelligence agencies can only speculate here. That did not stop them from scaring the world with reports of an impending war.

Since the warnings about Saddam Hussein's weapons of destruction, however, the credibility of the political-intelligence complex in America has not been at its best. Washington has lied a little too often.

Even if Russia withdraws, as it claims, the intentions behind the concentration of troops, unprecedented in Eastern Europe since Hitler's invasion of the Soviet Union, remain central. Presumably, however, photographs taken from an altitude of 36,000 kilometers are of less help here than considerations that geostrategists already made at the beginning of the last century.

At that time, the Eurasian landmass, the supercontinent consisting of Europe and Asia, was the focus of interest. The geographer Halford Mackinder claimed that whoever controlled it would rule the world. Since China started to catch up, Eurasia has become even more important. It is home to five billion people who generate two-thirds of the world's gross domestic product. Despite the distances, the economies of Europe and Asia are growing together.

Today, even more than a hundred years ago, the saying is true: Whoever controls the supercontinent controls the world. This gives Russia, which has recovered from its post-Soviet weakness, new opportunities.

There is no doubt that Putin wants to give Russia a place as a great power alongside the USA and China. But how can this be done? America and China are economically far superior to Russia. Washington also has a worldwide network of allies and troop bases. Beijing is arming itself to an extent that far outshines the modernization of the Russian armed forces.

The Kremlin cannot keep up, and its only close allies are states like Belarus, Armenia and Kazakhstan. Only in terms of nuclear weapons does it still play in the premier league. The conditions for Putin's dream of crowning his term in office with the restoration of Soviet greatness are therefore conceivably poor. But Russia is the only country that spans the whole of Eurasia, from the Polish border to the furthest tip of Siberia. Russia's destiny is its geography. Putin seems determined to use this fact to his advantage. He confidently underscored Russia's claim to be an Asian power during his appearance with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the start of the Olympics.

To really show off, the Kremlin needs Ukraine and a sphere of influence in the West. After all, Russia has not been a strong European power since the collapse of the Soviet Union. With Belarusian and Ukrainian independence, Moscow has been thrown back to the borders that the Russian rump state held when it embarked on the long road to empire after Ivan the Terrible.

Belarus has long since returned to being a vassal state. Moscow will never again withdraw its troops, which it has now stationed in Belarus under the pretext of a maneuver. Russia thus threatens NATO, which can reach its Baltic members by land only through a narrow corridor between the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad and Belarus. Moscow can cut this lifeline at any time.

The main prize remains Kiev, the political and spiritual center of old Russia. With the western parts of the country that once belonged to the Danube monarchy, Ukraine lies in Central Europe. The tsars founded Odessa, now Ukrainian, to control the Black Sea and secure access to the Mediterranean. Its shores are once again within Russia's sphere of influence since Moscow has been operating with soldiers and mercenaries in Syria, Libya and Mali.

Russia has already annexed Crimea. If Moscow secures hegemony over the rest of Ukraine, it would be the undisputed supreme power in the Black Sea. A nightmare for NATO members Bulgaria, Romania and Turkey.

Without Russia's blessing, there would be little in the Caucasus and the Caspian Sea. This rift zone - half Europe, half Asian steppe - is also a Eurasian hotspot of eminent importance. Oil and gas are produced here, and important pipelines run through it. Only those who connect the dots can see the whole picture.

Ukraine, the Caucasus or the Levant: for Putin, the chessboard cannot be big enough, he has placed his pieces everywhere. The Europeans and increasingly also the USA think in the short term and not very strategically. Thus, they say in Berlin or Washington that a war must be prevented, as if Europe were on the eve of the Munich Conference of 1938.

Even if Russia does not invade Ukraine, the central problem remains unsolved. Moscow wants to make Kiev a botmässig in order to play a role as a major Eurasian power. Putin does not want to languish in the eastern forecourt of NATO and the EU. He doesn't need a war for that, at least not a classic one with cannon thunder and tank battles.

What Moscow has staged in recent weeks is part of the script of modern war: military muscle play, propaganda on television and the Internet, cyberattacks and diplomatic maneuvers are all part of hybrid warfare. This seeks to break the will of the enemy without necessarily killing him. Physical force is only one tool in the arsenal.

At the same time, this means that even without conventional war, the hybrid attacks will not subside until Putin gets to his target. He will stop only when the Ukrainian leadership accepts a tutelage disguised as good relations.

Ukraine has certainly learned one thing: There is no rescue coming from the West. If it wants to find peace, it must recognize Russian sovereignty over the breakaway Donbass territories and Crimea. Putin has made this brutally clear with his power play, and that is why his high stakes have already paid off for him.

A conventional war, on the other hand, would stretch Russia's resources to the limit; above all, it could upset the carefully arranged chessboard. Anything less than a lightning victory would weaken Moscow. The alliance with China is still more a wish than a reality; in any case, Beijing sees Russia as a junior partner.

Even regional powers like Turkey successfully assert themselves against the Kremlin. For example, after the 2020 war between Armenia and Azerbaijan, Moscow had to accept that it would oversee the peace jointly with Ankara. In the past, Russia would have declared fighting in the Caucasus over as it saw fit.

Weights have shifted in the Caucasian-Caspian fault zone. Azerbaijan has become rich and strong with the raw materials boom and is sparring with Turkey. In the war against Armenia, it destroyed Russian air defense positions with drones bought in Israel. Thanks to Azerbaijani pipeline diplomacy, the gateway to the West is opening for Central Asia, once Russia's traditional backyard.

Russia is thus challenged on many fronts. A smart Western policy takes advantage of this instead of focusing solely on Ukraine. Moscow needs to feel counter-pressure everywhere. To do so, however, the EU and NATO would be forced to work with disreputable partners, for example by repairing relations with Turkey and supporting Azerbaijan.

In the 2020 war, Washington was still trying to dissuade Israel from supplying arms to Azerbaijan because its human rights record is lousy. To realize its potential, the West would have to relativize its values-driven foreign policy. Will it be possible to find majorities for this?

Putin has recognized this dilemma and therefore believes he can undercut the West. He is pursuing his geopolitical calculations with iron realism and a strategic goal. The chess game for dominance in Eurasia has only just begun.

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (http://www.DeepL.com/Translator) (free version)


I very mucz agree with this. I say since long time that Putin plays a chess game with a so long perspetvie that it is beyond Western politician's imagination. The article clearly puts the finger into the West's biggest wound: its lack of strategic longterm thinking. And now come the Germans with their claimed feminist and value-driven foreign policy intention, and Biden being fixiated on getting a date for when Russia will invade, and China. The distraction of America due to China can be excused, the Chiense challenge is real. The European and especially the German distraction can not. Energiewende - when I hear that already!



That all is no match for Putin's both mercilessly brutal and very smart powerplay.

[Skybird]

:ping: Embarrassing, embarrassing. :ping:

This unwelcomed finding makes currently the round in German media. It confirms the Russian's narration:

"We have made it clear that we will not extend NATO beyond the Elbe," German diplomat Juergen Chrobog wrote of a March 1991 meeting of the United States, Britain, France, and Germany. This document confirms the Russian view on eastward expansion.

A note from the British National Archives that has only now surfaced supports the Russian claim that the West violated pledges made in 1990 with NATO's eastward expansion. This is reported by "Der Spiegel."

U.S. political scientist Joshua Shifrinson found the formerly classified document. It deals with a March 6, 1991, meeting in Bonn of the political directors of the foreign ministries of the U.S., Britain, France and Germany. The topic was the security of Poland and other Eastern European states. A Political Director heads the Political Division in the State Department and is considered the closest advisor to the Foreign Minister.

Bonn's representative Jürgen Chrobog stated at the time, according to the memo, "We made it clear in the Two Plus Four negotiations that we would not extend NATO beyond the Elbe. We therefore cannot offer NATO membership to Poland and the others."

The British, French and Americans also rejected NATO membership for the Eastern Europeans. U.S. representative Raymond Seitz said, "We made it clear to the Soviet Union-at Two Plus Four as well as other talks-that we would not take advantage of Soviet troop withdrawals from Eastern Europe." Two years later, the Americans corrected their policy.


https://www.welt.de/politik/ausland/article236986765/Nato-Osterweiterung-Archivfund-bestaetigt-Sicht-der-Russen.html

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (http://www.DeepL.com/Translator) (free version)

Der Spiegel, Die Welt, and others report this story currently.

[clayton]

I wonder how much intel is gleaned from this site?

[Onkel Neal]

I cannot vouch for the accuracy, but Reuters is now saying 190,000
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-has-massed-up-190000-personnel-near-ukraine-us-says-2022-02-18/

I wonder what DEFCON we are at?

Putin to Stage Not-So-Subtle Nuclear Drill This Weekend to Spook West (https://www.thedailybeast.com/putin-to-stage-not-so-subtle-nuclear-drill-this-weekend-to-spook-west)

[mapuc]

I wonder how much intel is gleaned from this site?

I get my info from Danish, Swedish and English newspaper If they are trusted ? I hope so I can't say if info in an article is wrong.

On FB I mostly get info on Ukraine from Danish and Swedish newspaper.

What I else has discovered is-the number of end-of-time-stories, which seems to once again explode in numbers. They pop-up every time there's a crisis.

Markus

[Catfish]

[...] [I]"We have made it clear that we will not extend NATO beyond the Elbe," German diplomat Juergen Chrobog wrote of a March 1991 meeting of the United States, Britain, France, and Germany. This document confirms the Russian view on eastward expansion.

A note from the British National Archives that has only now surfaced supports the Russian claim that the West violated pledges made in 1990 with NATO's eastward expansion. This is reported by "Der Spiegel."

U.S. political scientist Joshua Shifrinson found the formerly classified document. [...]

https://www.subsim.com/radioroom/showpost.php?p=2786143&postcount=161

Even i do remember what Genscher and Reagan have said in front of TV cameras, no need to "dig in the archives". Some have short memory.

[mapuc]

I cannot vouch for the accuracy, but Reuters is now saying 190,000
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-has-massed-up-190000-personnel-near-ukraine-us-says-2022-02-18/

I wonder what DEFCON we are at?

Putin to Stage Not-So-Subtle Nuclear Drill This Weekend to Spook West (https://www.thedailybeast.com/putin-to-stage-not-so-subtle-nuclear-drill-this-weekend-to-spook-west)

DEFCON 3 Roundhouse

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DEFCON#Levels

Markus

[Aktungbby]

Nuthin new here; Putin just wants his Iron Curtain 'baby blanket' back no IMHO 'bout it:hmmm: Indeed; American cleanup of Europeaan WWI issues incl. 'Nam, China, Afghanistan, which all arise out of the collapsed Russian, British, and French 19th century empires, needs to be avoided. Russia is currently threatening to place retaliatory military assets in Venzuela ie: the Cuban missle crisis all over again. Were I the President, step one following the invasion of Ukraine would be to pull my ambassador from Moscow, declare all Russian diplomats non-grata and go to [COLOR="RED"] DEF-CON 2 ie: sabre-rattling on a grand scale; the only lingo Moscow comprehends... :ping::ping::ping:

I cannot vouch for the accuracy, but Reuters is now saying 190,000
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-has-massed-up-190000-personnel-near-ukraine-us-says-2022-02-18/
U
I wonder what DEFCON we are at?

Putin to Stage Not-So-Subtle Nuclear Drill This Weekend to Spook West (https://www.thedailybeast.com/putin-to-stage-not-so-subtle-nuclear-drill-this-weekend-to-spook-west) I'm fairly certain we're in WWIII.5; even China's premier Xi is backing away from his recent showcase-staged chumminess with Putin...and it doesn't help that negotiators name is Blinkin, which is what we're doing...:hmmm: bottom line: why does communism need to expand to be successful??:doh:

[Catfish]

re Skybird, but i quoted this before:

https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-book/russia-programs/2017-12-12/nato-expansion-what-gorbachev-heard-western-leaders-early

READ THE DOCUMENTS
Document-01-U-S-Embassy-Bonn-Confidential-Cable
Document 01

U.S. Embassy Bonn Confidential Cable to Secretary of State on the speech of the German Foreign Minister: Genscher Outlines His Vision of a New European Architecture.
Feb 1, 1990
Source
U.S. Department of State. FOIA Reading Room. Case F-2015 10829

One of the myths about the January and February 1990 discussions of German unification is that these talks occurred so early in the process, with the Warsaw Pact still very much in existence, that no one was thinking about the possibility that Central and European countries, even then members of the Warsaw Pact, could in the future become members of NATO. On the contrary, the West German foreign minister’s Tutzing formula in his speech of January 31, 1990, widely reported in the media in Europe, Washington, and Moscow, explicitly addressed the possibility of NATO expansion, as well as Central and Eastern European membership in NATO – and denied that possibility, as part of his olive garland towards Moscow. This U.S. Embassy Bonn cable reporting back to Washington details both of Hans-Dietrich Genscher’s proposals – that NATO would not expand to the east, and that the former territory of the GDR in a unified Germany would be treated differently from other NATO territory.

Document-02-Mr-Hurd-to-Sir-C-Mallaby-Bonn
Document 02

Mr. Hurd to Sir C. Mallaby (Bonn). Telegraphic N. 85: Secretary of State’s Call on Herr Genscher: German Unification.
Feb 6, 1990
Source
Documents on British Policy Overseas, series III, volume VII: German Unification, 1989-1990. (Foreign and Commonwealth Office. Documents on British Policy Overseas, edited by Patrick Salmon, Keith Hamilton, and Stephen Twigge, Oxford and New York, Routledge 2010). pp. 261-264

The U.S. State Department’s subsequent view of the German unification negotiations, expressed in a 1996 cable sent to all posts, mistakenly asserts that the entire negotiation over the future of Germany limited its discussion of the future of NATO to the specific arrangements over the territory of the former GDR. Perhaps the American diplomats missed out on the early dialogue between the British and the Germans on this issue, even though both shared their views with the U.S. secretary of state. As published in the British Foreign and Commonwealth Office’s official 2010 documentary history of the UK’s input into German unification, this memorandum of British Foreign Minister Douglas Hurd’s conversation with West German Foreign Minister Genscher on February 6, 1990, contains some remarkable specificity on the issue of future NATO membership for the Central Europeans.

The British memorandum specifically quotes Genscher as saying “that when he talked about not wanting to extend NATO that applied to other states beside the GDR. The Russians must have some assurance that if, for example, the Polish Government left the Warsaw Pact one day, they would not join NATO the next.” Genscher and Hurd were saying the same to their Soviet counterpart Eduard Shevardnadze, and to James Baker.[8]


[... the official State Department version of Secretary Baker’s assurances to Soviet Foreign Minister Shevardnadze just before the formal meeting with Gorbachev on February 9, 1990, contains a series of telling phrases."
“A neutral Germany would undoubtedly acquire its own independent nuclear capability. However, a Germany that is firmly anchored in a changed NATO, by that I mean a NATO that is far less of [a] military organization, much more of a political one, would have no need for independent capability. There would, of course, have to be iron-clad guarantees that NATO’s jurisdiction or forces would not move eastward. And this would have to be done in a manner that would satisfy Germany’s neighbors to the east.”


" this American transcript of perhaps the most famous U.S. assurance to the Soviets on NATO expansion confirms the Soviet transcript of the same conversation. Repeating what Bush said at the Malta summit in December 1989, Baker tells Gorbachev: “The President and I have made clear that we seek no unilateral advantage in this process” of inevitable German unification. Baker goes on to say, “We understand the need for assurances to the countries in the East. If we maintain a presence in a Germany that is a part of NATO, there would be no extension of NATO’s jurisdiction for forces of NATO one inch to the east.”



" Thus, in this conversation, the U.S. secretary of state three times offers assurances that if Germany were allowed to unify in NATO, preserving the U.S. presence in Europe, then NATO would not expand to the east.
The Soviet leader responds that “[w]e will think everything over. We intend to discuss all these questions in depth at the leadership level. It goes without saying that a broadening of the NATO zone is not acceptable.” Baker affirms: “We agree with that.”


There is a lot more of inconvenient stuff in these documents.

[mapuc]

I'm fairly certain we're in WWIII.5; even China's premier Xi is backing away from his recent showcase-staged chumminess with Putin...and it doesn't help that negotiators name is Blinkin, which is what we're doing...:hmmm: bottom line: why does communism need to expand to be successful??:doh:

I thought after having read about this DEFCON Scala
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DEFCON#Levels

I would guess the American forces is at DEFCON 3-Roundhouse.

A nuclear war is not imminent-Yet.

Markus

[Catfish]

https://i.imgur.com/4tPMx4Sl.jpg

[Skybird]

https://www.subsim.com/radioroom/showpost.php?p=2786143&postcount=161

Even i do remember what Genscher and Reagan have said in front of TV cameras, no need to "dig in the archives". Some have short memory.
So do I, well, almost, but there have been the rethorical returns by some people time and again that the promises back then had not happened and that there are no recorded files on it, was never said, had never happened . I recall it from some political magazine on TV where the comment ofr the narrator from the off expklcilty explained the detailed im0plicaitons of that there would be no movement of NATO to the East.



Instead it was something else that has not happened, maybe some people mistake these two things. There were no WMDs found in Saddam's garden despite the claim that one knew that they were there and that one knew where they are. :D


True only is that these reassurances were verbal only, not fixed in signed treaty. Which was naive by the Russians to trust on. But exploiting that trust is what has brought us to where we are today. Who wants to insist on that the outcome today justifies that behaviour back then?

Putin wa snot always like he is today. In his very early years of rteign, he was welcomed, admired an dbgreeted a lot in Europpe and the US alike, and many saw him as the new Peter the Great bringing Russia closer to Europe. There was a starting situation with potential, but one let the window of opportunity closing, even more, one helped to leave it open as short as possible only. Now, this plays no role anymore, Russia must be seen as a hostile today. The cold war is back, and it is more unpredictable than back then. But it must not have come to this.

When holding such hopes, it was stupid to betray them that easily. I do not free Putin of the responsibility for political assassinations, annexations and occupations. Still, his change, his motivations can be explained, and personality and psychology is just one part of the picture, and I think not even the most important one. And Europe and the US is anything but innocent in what has brought us to today's pass. The West was too convinced of itself.

[Skybird]

re Skybird, but i quoted this before:

https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-book/russia-programs/2017-12-12/nato-expansion-what-gorbachev-heard-western-leaders-early

READ THE DOCUMENTS
Document-01-U-S-Embassy-Bonn-Confidential-Cable
Document 01

U.S. Embassy Bonn Confidential Cable to Secretary of State on the speech of the German Foreign Minister: Genscher Outlines His Vision of a New European Architecture.
Feb 1, 1990
Source
U.S. Department of State. FOIA Reading Room. Case F-2015 10829

One of the myths about the January and February 1990 discussions of German unification is that these talks occurred so early in the process, with the Warsaw Pact still very much in existence, that no one was thinking about the possibility that Central and European countries, even then members of the Warsaw Pact, could in the future become members of NATO. On the contrary, the West German foreign minister’s Tutzing formula in his speech of January 31, 1990, widely reported in the media in Europe, Washington, and Moscow, explicitly addressed the possibility of NATO expansion, as well as Central and Eastern European membership in NATO – and denied that possibility, as part of his olive garland towards Moscow. This U.S. Embassy Bonn cable reporting back to Washington details both of Hans-Dietrich Genscher’s proposals – that NATO would not expand to the east, and that the former territory of the GDR in a unified Germany would be treated differently from other NATO territory.

Document-02-Mr-Hurd-to-Sir-C-Mallaby-Bonn
Document 02

Mr. Hurd to Sir C. Mallaby (Bonn). Telegraphic N. 85: Secretary of State’s Call on Herr Genscher: German Unification.
Feb 6, 1990
Source
Documents on British Policy Overseas, series III, volume VII: German Unification, 1989-1990. (Foreign and Commonwealth Office. Documents on British Policy Overseas, edited by Patrick Salmon, Keith Hamilton, and Stephen Twigge, Oxford and New York, Routledge 2010). pp. 261-264

The U.S. State Department’s subsequent view of the German unification negotiations, expressed in a 1996 cable sent to all posts, mistakenly asserts that the entire negotiation over the future of Germany limited its discussion of the future of NATO to the specific arrangements over the territory of the former GDR. Perhaps the American diplomats missed out on the early dialogue between the British and the Germans on this issue, even though both shared their views with the U.S. secretary of state. As published in the British Foreign and Commonwealth Office’s official 2010 documentary history of the UK’s input into German unification, this memorandum of British Foreign Minister Douglas Hurd’s conversation with West German Foreign Minister Genscher on February 6, 1990, contains some remarkable specificity on the issue of future NATO membership for the Central Europeans.

The British memorandum specifically quotes Genscher as saying “that when he talked about not wanting to extend NATO that applied to other states beside the GDR. The Russians must have some assurance that if, for example, the Polish Government left the Warsaw Pact one day, they would not join NATO the next.” Genscher and Hurd were saying the same to their Soviet counterpart Eduard Shevardnadze, and to James Baker.[8]


[... the official State Department version of Secretary Baker’s assurances to Soviet Foreign Minister Shevardnadze just before the formal meeting with Gorbachev on February 9, 1990, contains a series of telling phrases."
“A neutral Germany would undoubtedly acquire its own independent nuclear capability. However, a Germany that is firmly anchored in a changed NATO, by that I mean a NATO that is far less of [a] military organization, much more of a political one, would have no need for independent capability. There would, of course, have to be iron-clad guarantees that NATO’s jurisdiction or forces would not move eastward. And this would have to be done in a manner that would satisfy Germany’s neighbors to the east.”


" this American transcript of perhaps the most famous U.S. assurance to the Soviets on NATO expansion confirms the Soviet transcript of the same conversation. Repeating what Bush said at the Malta summit in December 1989, Baker tells Gorbachev: “The President and I have made clear that we seek no unilateral advantage in this process” of inevitable German unification. Baker goes on to say, “We understand the need for assurances to the countries in the East. If we maintain a presence in a Germany that is a part of NATO, there would be no extension of NATO’s jurisdiction for forces of NATO one inch to the east.”



" Thus, in this conversation, the U.S. secretary of state three times offers assurances that if Germany were allowed to unify in NATO, preserving the U.S. presence in Europe, then NATO would not expand to the east.
The Soviet leader responds that “[w]e will think everything over. We intend to discuss all these questions in depth at the leadership level. It goes without saying that a broadening of the NATO zone is not acceptable.” Baker affirms: “We agree with that.”


There is a lot more of inconvenient stuff in these documents.


I had not forgotten that you did. But that finding dates back to 2017, it seems, and it now has surfaced once again, done by an American and dug out from a British archives.



Thats two sources now.

[Skybird]

https://i.imgur.com/4tPMx4Sl.jpg
Truth being told I think it now is indeed about more than just Ukraine joinign NATO or not. Its a factor, but not the only one.

[mapuc]

The wolf is coming. Once Again Biden say Russia will attack Ukraine/Kyiv within the next couples of days.

I still say Russia will invade Ukraine or part of it after 20th of Feb. If they decide to do so.

Markus

[Catfish]

The two usual suspects umm provinces Donezk and Luhansk have declared a general mobilisation, against "military attacks".

There's the pretext. "Seit 5:45 wird jetzt zurück geschossen" :shifty:

Still the russian percentage is only around 40 percent in both, so russians there are a minority.
Maybe Trump can build some hotels there, i hear he is in negotiations.

[Skybird]

Yes, it does not look good. Add to the mobilization the raise in firefights and mortar duels, the car bomb, and the explosion at the pipeline. Sounds staged to me, all of it.


Still, it is an insane adventure Putin embarks on. He needs a successful mother of all Blitzes victory, cannot afford to get drawn into an ongoing quagmire. Back home his power erodes not so much from the outside, butinside, and if the Europeans can bring themselves to indeed reacting united and determined, the economic fallout will be crushing for Russia. No breaking its spine, but doing an awsome lot of damage and pain.

However, Germany will suffer dearly, too. And stockmarkets and inflation... Wel, it will not become pleasant. Not at all.

If this becomes a hot war indeed, then we all will be very severly affected one way or the other. Economically, energy-wise, financially. We all will pay, and will still do so in years to come.

I would not be concerned about what gets thrown at the Germans, since they have asked for it since many years, see my post in the Germany thread today. But these Germans pull me down with them as well, so... My biggest concern and fear these days is not the war itself, or the pandemic, or heating, or anything, but the inflation - and the increaisngly disinhibited, totalitarian policies or plunder and expropriatiton it will make governments to bring forward. I mean they already do it via their complices in the central banks, but they will worsen the pressure by factors.

[Jimbuna]

Beijing's Foreign Minister said that Ukraine had the right to safeguard its sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity. The Russian President has amassed close to 200,000 troops on Ukraine's northern, eastern and southern flanks, according to US officials. Defence analysts working for the Atlantic Council organisation warned that the Kremlin had completed preparations for a large-scale offensive operation.

They said that Russian forces could "likely execute a further invasion of Ukraine with less than twelve hours of unambiguous warning."

With an invasion looking increasingly imminent, China's top diplomat used his appearance at the Munich security conference on Saturday to warn Mr Putin against following through on his expansionist ambitions.

Wang Yi affirmed Ukraine's right to safeguard its territorial integrity and urged a diplomatic solution to the escalating crisis.

He called the Minsk Agreement the "only way out" and urged all parties to come together and solve the crisis peacefully.

Mr Yi also said that Ukraine should not be a frontline for competition among major powers.

The Minsk Agreement refers to a diplomatic accord signed in February 2015 in the Belarus capital by representatives of Russia, Ukraine, the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) and the leaders of two pro-Russian separatist regions.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/vladimir-putin-humiliated-by-china-after-beijing-urges-moscow-to-drop-ukraine-war-plans/ar-AAU4cr8?ocid=mailsignout&li=AAnZ9Ug

[Jimbuna]

Ukraine's Russian-backed breakaway eastern territories have ordered military mobilisations amid a deadly escalation in fighting.

Men of fighting age in the self-declared people's republics of Donetsk and Luhansk are being put on stand-by.

US President Joe Biden says he is convinced Russia will invade Ukraine, an allegation Moscow denies.

Western nations have accused Russia of trying to stage a fake crisis in the eastern regions as a pretext to invade.

International monitors report a "dramatic increase" in attacks along the line dividing rebel and government forces.

Two Ukrainian soldiers were killed and four injured by shelling on Saturday, the first deaths to be reported in weeks.

Mr Biden's Defence Secretary, Lloyd Austin, said Russian forces were beginning to "uncoil and move closer" to the border with Ukraine.

In the German city of Munich, US Vice-President Kamala Harris told a security conference that if Russia did invade, the US and its allies would impose a "significant and unprecedented economic cost", targeting its financial institutions and key industries, as well as those who aided and abetted such an invasion.

Echoing her remarks, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson said that, in the event of an invasion, his country would "open up the Matryoshka dolls" of strategic Russian-owned companies and make it impossible for them to raise finance in London.

Mr Johnson had talks in Munich with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who was visiting for the security conference against the advice of President Biden, who had said it might not be a "wise choice" for the Ukrainian leader to be out of his country at this time.

The US estimates there are 169,000-190,000 Russian personnel massed along Ukraine's borders, a figure that includes separatist fighters in Donetsk and Luhansk.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60443504

[Skybird]

Olympics closing ceremony tomorrow.

[mapuc]

I got this fear that Russia will do more than just invade Ukraine. From hearing and reading the news from Russia and Ukraine-gives me the feeling Russia are planning on doing more than just Invade Ukraine.

In the news days ago it was said that Russia may response military to NATO's and EU's answer to Russian demands.

Today Saturday Russia will have a huge nuclear exercise.

Markus

[Skybird]

I got this fear that Russia will do more than just invade Ukraine. From hearing and reading the news from Russia and Ukraine-gives me the feeling Russia are planning on doing more than just Invade Ukraine.

In the news days ago it was said that Russia may response military to NATO's and EU's answer to Russian demands.

Today Saturday Russia will have a huge nuclear exercise.

Markus

They will flex muscles against NATO and will send new weapons to Kaliningrad and Belarus, Georgia and Moldavia, maybe even tactical nukes into forward positions again - oh wait, they already did that, since longer time, so not, I think there is not much more they can do except indeed attacking border and territory of a NATO member and seeking confrontations in international waters and air space, or pressing into national airspace, like they do since longer time now. They could also refus eintenraiton cooperaiton on othetr topics and issues, from fighting Islam to fighting global warming.

But risking a real unlimited war with the US and NATO? No. Biden made the point some days ago, saying if Americans and Russians start shooting at each other, then its becomign a world war.

And lets be clear: Russia cannot afford nor maintain such a huge war even if it stays conventional, which is not certain.



Not even China does take them as an equal anymore. Russia has ores, Russia has energy, and Russia has military, but Italy's GDP is bigger than the Russian military budget, I just red. The one and decisive thing that Russia does not have is: a higher developed producing economy. Oil he cannot dleiver to europoe any ore, cannot be that easily redircted to asia, the infrastructure mostly is missing. And when it got build, maybe evcen Chian ahs started moving away from fossil fuels: then Russia had investements and expenses, but no profits. They have a huge braind rain, and the experts they have mostly work in the gas and oil business. Well...


The Sovjet Union lost the cold war not militarily, but economically. War with NATO, Russia economically cannot afford.

Plus it likely would break Putin'S neck at home, with public opinion, and maybe even from within his inner circle. It wil aleaey difficult enoguh for him to justify a war aaginst the Ukraine. I am not certain that he will succeed with that. I see a realistic chance that if he does not deliver the mother of all super-fast Blitzkrieg victories, it will bring him into deep trouble at home.

[mapuc]

What if Putin thinks he would win a lot by using tactical nukes in Eastern Europe-Hoping that the fear of a nuclear war will make NATO withdraw from Poland, Bulgaria, Romania a.s.o.

NATO will rather give in than fight a nuclear war.

I could be wrong-Just a crazy idea I got-Putin use one small tactical nukes in some eastern country.

Markus

[mapuc]

Plus it likely would break Putin'S neck at home, with public opinion, and maybe even from within his inner circle. It wil aleaey difficult enoguh for him to justify a war aaginst the Ukraine. I am not certain that he will succeed with that. I see a realistic chance that if he does not deliver the mother of all super-fast Blitzkrieg victories, it will bring him into deep trouble at home.

Well in the news here in Denmark and Sweden says that Putin is running a massive propaganda show-Telling the Russian people, Ukraine is being lead by nazis and they have build concentration camps for the Russians

Markus

[Jimbuna]

The shock of any invasion of Ukraine by Russia would "echo around the world", Boris Johnson has told world leaders.

He said we must be "unflinchingly honest" about the situation in Ukraine and should not "underestimate the gravity of this moment".

In a speech at a security conference in Munich, Mr Johnson said he does not know what Russian President Vladimir Putin intends, but "omens are grim".

"And that is why we must stand strong together," he said.

Western nations have warned Russia could invade Ukraine imminently, with over 130,000 of its troops near the border.

They accuse Russia of trying to stage a fake crisis in a breakaway eastern region of Ukraine to give it a reason to invade.

But Russia has repeatedly denied having plans to invade, saying troops are conducting military exercises in the region, accusing the West of "hysteria".

[Catfish]

Well in the news here in Denmark and Sweden says that Putin is running a massive propaganda show-Telling the Russian people, Ukraine is being lead by nazis and they have build concentration camps for the Russians Markus
Does anyone believe that sh..., even in Russia, really? :haha:

[Catfish]

[...]
But Russia has repeatedly denied having plans to invade, saying troops are conducting military exercises in the region, accusing the West of "hysteria".
Of course it will not be an invasion, it will be (called by Russia) a liberation! :haha:

[Jeff-Groves]

Does anyone believe that sh..., even in Russia, really? :haha:
Well. I have a new Range that the User manual says 'Don't enter the Oven'.
AND it has a HIDDEN Sabbath mode!
So guess you can fool some of the people all the time.

[mapuc]

Does anyone believe that sh..., even in Russia, really? :haha:

This map was shown on Russian state TV and was supposed to be a intercepted map with the Ukrainian attack plans against the self-proclaimed republics.
But prepared in Russian, which is not used in Ukrainian military.

Markus

[Catfish]

Well. I have a new Range that the User manual says 'Don't enter the Oven'. [...]
AND it has a HIDDEN Sabbath mode!
What is this hidden Sabbath mode, something like "May not work at Sabbath so oven won't work"? :hmmm:
Edit: I just realized this may be it :har:

[mapuc]

When I read following in the Swedish news I came to think on our friend Skybird, who has said this a few times.

Translated

"
Putin has painted himself into a corner and must therefore act,
which makes an invasion of Ukraine "almost inevitable", says SVT's correspondent Bert Sundström who is in Kyiv.
The risk of war is very great, according to Bert Sundström.
-It is really a feeling here in Ukraine that you have to strengthen the defense and be prepared. Everyone thinks something
will happen.
-A small invasion somewhere is almost inevitable, says Bert Sundström in Saturday's Report

Markus

[Andreas86]

One has to see two sides of this..

To be fair to Russia, it is indeed true that NATO has expanded far beyond the promises that were made after the fall of the Soviet Union. Russia is a big country and a world power, and like the US it will need armspace. Imagine if the warzaw pact survived and advanced to the doorstep of the US, do you not think Washington would act? Indeed the US HAS acted many times, far beyond its normal spheres of influence and also involved Europe/Britain/NATO in these endeavours. Wars have been started for both vengeance and economic reasons but this is all forgotten now it seems.

Remember "Weapons Of Mass Destruction", the late Colin Powell misleading the United Nations and the world on behalf of the Bush administration? The "axis of evil"? Today american media condemns the "coming" false flag event, the pretext to war in Ukraine. In my view, the US is in NO PLACE to judge or dictate morals to anyone, as it has left a trail of broken and bombed out distant countries in its wake. It is shameful to see America pass judgement so often, when it has itself invaded far away nations at will and at any time. It has destabilized where it has seen fit and sculpted its surroundings through illegal or covert operations.

Yet, it is Russia that in the last decade has been labeled the big bad wolf in the world. Western media, including the media in my home country Norway, has conjured Russia up to being this antagonist. In many ways I think this new cold war is a result of western medias alienation of Russia and Vladimir Putin. I do not condone Russias aggression against Ukraine, not at all. I hope to God that war does not break out, but I fear it will. I prey for the safety of the people of Ukraine and Europeans. But we should all stop and think a bit, and ask if constantly pushing Russia is a wise thing to do. NATO should stop the expansion now, it is not the 70s and 80s anymore. The world is not so black and white, nor good and bad. And given Europes history of the last 100 years, I have no problems understanding that Russia doesn't want western military influence on its doorstep. But sadly our leaders never learn, NEVER.

Know this: My own country is comparatively about as ill-prepared for conflict now as it was in april 1940, and our former prime minister Jens Stoltenberg was a huge part in severely building DOWN our already miniscule military forces in the 2000s. Now he spouts big words from the chair of NATO, as if he EVER really supported NATO in his own ideologic mind. How he ever got that gig is anyones guess. One can only hope he paid more attention is history lessons than his english lessons..

Anyway, I write this as a Norwegian and european. I have nothing against neither the US or Russia, nor its people. And I do not think that either nation is the evil part. If anything they are equally evil.

[sublynx]

I'd like to add three sides to the two sides (West vs. Russia) argument. The fact is that Putin has already managed to occupy Belarus without anybody but the poor people of Belarus noticing. As difficult as it is, the Western powers have an obligation to add ethics to the balance of power problems. If the West pays no thought on what is wrong and what is right, there is no difference between Putin, Xi Jinping or the Western leaders.

[Skybird]

I'd like to add three sides to the two sides (West vs. Russia) argument. The fact is that Putin has already managed to occupy Belarus without anybody but the poor people of Belarus noticing.
Fact is the tyrant in Belarus called him in. If there is an occupatien, then it is the tyrant occupying Belarus.

As difficult as it is, the Western powers have an obligation to add ethics to the balance of power problems."Obligation"? Why? And more important: How?



If the West pays no thought on what is wrong and what is right, there is no difference between Putin, Xi Jinping or the Western leaders.We have no obligation to compensate for the lack of morals of the evil doers. Just saying that for technical reasons. We are no responsible for the failings of the others, only for our own.

Beyond that we must keep an eye on the difference between what morally is claimed to be desirable (and I reserve the right to disagree on some or many of these claims that nowadays are taken as natural), and what pragmatically can be done and acchieved. Moral standards do not compensate for lacking ability and power.

See contemporary Germany as a textbook example, which currently is crashing hard on the concrete grounds of reality after decades of having dreamed moralistic daydreams without having the musclce to support them. Germany is heavily depending on external factors it cannot control, on energy imports, and exporting to other markets, and it has almost no military muscle worth to be called that. It is held accountable already for unimaginable ammounts of debts risen by other nations in Europe, and for some stupid reasons I will never understand voluntarily accepted these, without being forced. Nevertheless, the Greens claim they now do a "feminist value-driven foreign policy". Well, we talk about that again in four years. Or more precisely: we won't because nobody will even remember even just the claim anymore. We Germans already went through many good-will cakes we once have baked at our own expenses and that recently exploded into our faces, and more exploding cakes are imminent in the forseebale future to slam into our faces.

Its better to be strong and have power and not needing to use it, than needing it and then finding out one has none. The world is no garden Eden, nor is life in general. Its a fighting pit.


Dark Forest. Who has red Cixin Liu knows what I mean.

[mapuc]

I wouldn't call it a funny feeling, more a weird feeling. The feeling something terrible is going to happen, very soon

It makes me wonder if the people in the beginning of sept 1939 had the same feeling-Awaiting the inevitable.

They have also expand the exercise in Belarus-Don't know what this mean.

Markus

[Skybird]

Olympics are over now.



Now we will see whether there will be a new Tonkin fairytale or not.


"Manouvers" in Belarus have been "extended". The Russian troops, war yes or no, have no intention to ever leave Belarus again anyway, I am certain. Belarus again is Russia's now. Putin always wanted iot so, but Lukashenko until the recent rigged election and following riots rejected the intention. Until he had no more choice.

[Onkel Neal]

I wouldn't call it a funny feeling, more a weird feeling. The feeling something terrible is going to happen, very soon

It makes me wonder if the people in the beginning of sept 1939 had the same feeling-Awaiting the inevitable.

They have also expand the exercise in Belarus-Don't know what this mean.

Markus


Yeah, agreed. Except the people in 1939 did not face a dictator who was showing off nuclear weapons.

[Jimbuna]

Todays offering from our resident clown.

Evidence suggests Russia is planning "the biggest war in Europe since 1945", Prime Minister Boris Johnson has said.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-60448162

[Jimbuna]

Russian President Vladimir Putin and his ally Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko have extended military drills which were due to end on Sunday.

A statement cited the "deterioration of the situation" in east Ukraine as one reason for keeping an estimated 30,000 Russian troops in Belarus.

The move will add to fears that Russia plans an invasion of Ukraine, which shares a long border with Belarus.

Western leaders have accused Moscow of seeking a pretext to send in troops.

Russia has denied it plans to invade its neighbour.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the extension of military exercises shows the world is on the brink of war.

The BBC's Eastern Europe correspondent Sarah Rainsford said the announcement - made by the Belarus defence ministry - is another strong signal that Russia is not prepared to back down in its stand-off with Western countries over Ukraine.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60451955

[mapuc]

From the Ukrainian government officials.
Edit
It was the Ukrainian defence minister Alexei Reznikov, who said
an attack "tomorrow or the day after tomorrow" was unlikely as no Russian "strike groups" had yet formed near the border.

End edit

Markus

[Jeff-Groves]

They are to busy reading Twitter right now.

If the so called plan to send 250,000 to the Mexican/USA border had happened?
Would that have been a move to invade Mexico?

[mapuc]

Someone has to throw the glove into the ring.
Macron and Putin was discussing Ukraine over the phone yesterday.

So far West both side has refuse to give in and I can't see any diplomatically solution if none of them is prepared to throw the glove into the ring and give up.

Markus

[Gorpet]

Damn, How did this happen so fast after Donald Trump lost the election and now has been gone for a year and the Democrats have assumed power. How in the hell is the world looking at another war.The Orange man has been deposed and now the people of the United States who voted for Joe Biden and the Democrat party to lead and unite this country and the world and keep us out of a Donald Trump war.
Now Americans wake up and find out The Democrats are going to get our country into another war overseas and again thousands of miles away from our shores.Why? Europe and NATO can stand on their own in that hemisphere and if they need help Britain is the greatest power in that region to look to for help.

[Skybird]

You really need to get your facts checked, they are a mess.

[Jimbuna]

You really need to get your facts checked, they are a mess.

Who, NATO, Europe, UK or all three?

[mapuc]

"
Russian President Vladimir Putin has convened a meeting of the Russian Security Council, Dmitry Peskov, a spokesman for the Russian news agency Ria, confirmed.

Peskov stresses that it will be an "extraordinary" meeting in which President Putin himself will speak.

The Security Council is made up of senior officials of the country's defense and security authorities and advises the President on matters relating to the country's security and strategic interests.

The president also has several international phone calls scheduled during today, the spokesman said.
"

Wonder what Putin will say at this meeting.

Markus

[Jimbuna]

Vladimir Putin ready to deploy 'super nuclear weapons' on Belarus border.

Belarusian President Alexander has warned that Belarus is ready to host Russian nuclear weapons amid ongoing tension with the West over Ukraine. Mr Lukashenko aimed the threatening remarks at NATO as he visited a training ground where joint military drills with Russia have been underway.

Mr Lukashenko said: "If such stupid and mindless steps are taken by all rivals and opponents, we will not only deploy nuclear weapons but super nuclear weapons to protect our country.

"But if there are no threats, we don't need nuclear weapons for 100 years."
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/ukraine-crisis-vladimir-putin-ready-to-deploy-super-nuclear-weapons-on-belarus-border/ar-AAU6hQ2?ocid=mailsignout&li=AAnZ9Ug

[Jimbuna]

Joe Biden has agreed "in principle" to hold a formal meeting with Vladimir Putin to discuss the Ukraine crisis.

But Russia says talk of a summit is premature and there are "no concrete plans" for a meeting.

Several airlines including Air France and Lufthansa have suspended flights to Ukraine over invasion fears.

The US claims Russia has compiled a list of people in Ukraine to be killed or sent to detention camps after an invasion.

Moscow calls reports of a list an "absolute lie"

In Belarus, which borders Ukraine, thousands of Russian troops will stay on despite finishing military exercises.

Boris Johnson tells the BBC that the economic sanctions being prepared by the West would hit Moscow "very, very hard"

But he says that this might not be enough to deter Vladimir Putin from starting the worst conflict in Europe since 1945

[mapuc]

Tactical nukes will be used in a first strike-Russia will use 2-4 tactical nukes 1-2 tons TNT. At highest they will be thrown at non-populated areas in Poland, Romania and Bulgaria. Thereafter Russia will threaten to use its entire arsenal of nukes if NATO doesn't withdraw from Eastern Europe.

What will happen in Europe/NATO I can't say...

(The above was just a made-up story)

Markus

[Skybird]

Who, NATO, Europe, UK or all three?
gorpet.

[Jimbuna]

gorpet.

Ah, right.

[Skybird]

Just in:

Russian army claims: five "saboteurs" from Ukraine "eliminated" after crossing border


From the very beginning, Adolf Hitler's basic goals included the destruction of "Jewish Bolshevism" and the conquest of "Lebensraum in the East". The prerequisite for this was a war against Poland. When the Nazi leadership adopted an increasingly aggressive confrontational course toward Poland in March 1939, German-Polish tensions intensified. Poland rejected the annexation of the Free City of Danzig to the German Reich, as demanded by the German government, as well as the construction of extraterritorial transport links through the Polish "corridor" to East Prussia. Hitler instructed the Wehrmacht leadership in April 1939 to prepare for a campaign against Poland. Beginning in the spring of 1939, Nazi propaganda pushed the anti-Polish resentment that existed in large segments of the German population. In August 1939, newspapers and radio reported almost daily on alleged Polish border violations and acts of violence against the German minority living in Poland. The invasion of Poland was thus supposed to appear as a "just punitive action" for the provocations.
Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)


https://www.dhm.de/lemo/kapitel/der-zweite-weltkrieg/kriegsverlauf/ueberfall-auf-polen-1939.html

[mapuc]

^ I think most of us, who like history, know what happened thereafter-UK and France sending an ultimatum to Hitler.

I personally hope similar wouldn't happen today-NATO sending an ultimatum to Putin.

Markus

[Skybird]

Scholz is no friend of ultimatums against his party's most favourite buddy, Russia, but he likes to speak of his weaseling "strategic ambiguity" :har: instead, that means to not tell Putin what he has to expect if he invades.

Why that is better instead of telling him crystal clear that his econoym would be economically sanctioned into the stoneage with all the West can mobilise for this task, so to speak, is beyond me. Maybe becasue Scholz knows that our gas reserves run thin and that Germany has accepted to end up in a state of learned helplessness and has no intention to support all imaginable heavy sanctions. Mind you, his poarty is streong in opinion in wasnting dismantle NATO, gettingUS nukes out of Europe, there is a very striong left wing in the SPD wanting this and even want to dismantle the Bundeswehr. The SPD has no real experts and insiders that propagate a trans-atlantic relation, but it has many Russia-whisperers wanting to bring Germany closer to Russia. Much of what then SPD says about NATO and the US is just lip confessions to not loose voters. Scholz probably comkbines his helplessness with just what he always does: moving handwarm but empty air by letting his tongue flap. In principle he is not more than just a warm air ventilator.

Or better: he is powerless, clueless, and represents a country that has just seen the last of its illusory and naive foreign political convictions going down the drain. No other Western nation crashes as hard on the hard ground of reality over the Ukraine, than Germany currently does. And we deserve it.



I can hold out for the remaining winter with my heating petrol reserves. I HOPE that the gas runs out and Germans suffer one or two or three weeeks without heatign and without power form gas-driven powerplants. Maybe such a hurting experience is what indeed is needed to bring some sense and reason back into these stupid hobbits' empty heads. He who will not hear must feel. Reality is stronger than drunk-of-romantic ideology.


Also, a boycott by Russia to deloiver gas and ore and coal, would probbaly bring a collapse to the Green'S insane "transofrmation" pllcies, now that the eU already has started to slowly move away from its over-ambitious prioce-dirving pllciy foir similiar ideolgical madnesses. The comeposnaiton measures would be so costly that we probaly cnanot afford to stick to this indeolgical insanities as they are being outlined now. So, I indeed can see some positive even in the worst case with Russia.

The enemy of my enemy is my part-time ally. Not by love, but pragmatic purpose. Just like for the same reason I reject to make a stand against the AfD. I dispise it, I laugh about it and think they are unbelievably stupid and in parts Nazis, but they enforce instability onto the established phalanx of political powers, and so I let them serve in a function of a ram. Sympathy and shared views have NOTHING to do with my tolerance for them. Its a pure egoistic abuse from my side.

[Jimbuna]

Two separatist leaders from Ukraine have appealed to Vladimir Putin to recognise their "people's republics" as independent states.

Denis Pushilin, head of the Donetsk People's Republic, and Leonid Pasechnik, leader of the Luhansk People's Republic, are reported to be in Moscow.

Their appeals have been shown by Russian state TV.

Putin told his security council it was necessary to consider the appeals.

"Our objective, the objective of our meeting today is to listen to colleagues and decide on our next steps in this area," Putin said.

If he agrees, it could lead to Moscow openly sending military forces into both regions, using the claim that it is intervening as an ally to protect them from Ukraine.

[Skybird]

Putin said the Minsk agreement has no more chance to be implemented. I think that mulls the recognition of Donbass' and Luhansk's independence.

That Biden agrees in principle to a summit with Putin, may give him satisfaction, too. He gets the recognition he wanted no matter whether the summit takes place or not, and he sees the Europeans being left out of it, as he always wanted.

Its up to Biden whether he agrees to ignore the Europeans, or whether he insits on keeping them in play, no matter how weak their role is.

But once again the Europeans get reminded of their irrelevance. Must be quite sobering. To me it is less sobering and more consistent with their self-made fate.

[mapuc]

Have to ask those of you who post comment and follow this thread

How many of you believe that this Russia-Ukraine crisis is a made-up story produced by our elected politicians and supported by our free press ?

I have so far read three comments where the author did claim that this crisis is nothing but an "Invention" and it's not a conspiracy(wrote one of them).

I think it has to do with fear-These people have a fear for what may happen and by closing their eyes and say it's not there-it will disappear

For me this crisis is real as it can get-And yes I have fear what may happen-But it wouldn't disappear if I close my eyes.

Markus

[Armistead]

Seems I read the US govt expects an attack on the major city of Kyiv, so Russia would come in from Belarus. Sucks Ukraine couldn't resolve their politics and corruption before it came to this. Not sure what Russia has to gain from this except very long term, but if they go in hard no amount of sanctions is gonna make them leave. Probably be the final nail to throw the US and most the world into recession and another cold war with us sending troops to Poland, Romania and other NATO allies. Europe better be glad warmer weather is coming.

[Buddahaid]

To me it just proves that humanity will never learn to live in peace. If we are not already in a fight it won't be long before someone feels the need to start one.

[mapuc]

We have come one step close to an invasion of Ukraine-The Russian government has recognized two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine - Donetsk and Luhansk as independent states.

(the article says Putin is thinking about it-but according to the news here, Putin has recognized them as independent)

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60468234

Markus

[Jimbuna]

Putin said the Minsk agreement has no more chance to be implemented. I think that mulls the recognition of Donbass' and Luhansk's independence.

That Biden agrees in principle to a summit with Putin, may give him satisfaction, too. He gets the recognition he wanted no matter whether the summit takes place or not, and he sees the Europeans being left out of it, as he always wanted.

Its up to Biden whether he agrees to ignore the Europeans, or whether he insits on keeping them in play, no matter how weak their role is.

But once again the Europeans get reminded of their irrelevance. Must be quite sobering. To me it is less sobering and more consistent with their self-made fate.

I reckon that eventually, Ukraine will be left to fend for itself and that is what Putin is gambling on because a protracted war will not be popular with the Russian people....not that he particularly cares about them and he is supported by the oligarchs and military.

[Jimbuna]

Russia's President Vladimir Putin is to recognise breakaway regions of Ukraine, the Kremlin says.

He told the French and German leaders of his plans in a phone call, saying he would sign a decree.

Such a move could allow him to openly move troops into Eastern Ukraine and end peace talks with Kyiv.

In a speech to the nation he said Ukraine had no history of being a true nation.

UK Defence Secretary says Russia's President Vladimir Putin is "committed" to invading Ukraine.

Several airlines including Air France and Lufthansa have suspended flights to Ukraine over invasion fears.

[Buddahaid]

Sounds a lot like Hitler rescuing those poor germans in Sudetenland.

[Catfish]

^ yes ..

How he can be able to move russian troops into those regions if he just accepted them as 'independent'.
Seems the 35 percent russian population needs help from Russia, against the evil 65 percent majority..

As written before "Seit 5:45 wird jetzt zurück geschossen" :shifty:

[Catfish]

Ok this was it. Either instant hot war or a cold one.
And no one should misunderstand this. The aggressor is Russia.

[Onkel Neal]

Sounds a lot like Hitler rescuing those poor germans in Sudetenland.

Exactly. Now all we are waiting for is "representatives" of these breakaway regions to call for Russian assistance, then the troops march in. And then--gasp!--Ukraine has attacked these breakaway sovereign states and now poor Russia has the burden of war thrust on them.

Would be amazing if Ukraine is better prepared to fight than the Russkies imagine.

[mapuc]

Exactly. Now all we are waiting for is "representatives" of these breakaway regions to call for Russian assistance, then the troops march in. And then--gasp!--Ukraine has attacked these breakaway sovereign states and now poor Russia has the burden of war thrust on them.

Would be amazing if Ukraine is better prepared to fight than the Russkies imagine.

There's not much Western Ukraine can do about it-They are no match for the Russian military-They may sting them, but that's it.

No doubt Putin will give the order to send Russian troops into these two region-The question is what will Ukraine do and what will EU/NATO do ?

Markus

[Buddahaid]

Ok this was it. Either instant hot war or a cold one.
And no one should misunderstand this. The aggressor is Russia.

I have much faith humanity can be brilliantly stupid, but I still can't believe it would self anihilate. I'm old enough to enjoy a surprise though.....

[Skybird]

If the Ukrainian government "accepts" this landtaking since it is militarily weak, it will lose support of the people, and is practically at its end. Russia could afford to not start a full invasion, but take the trophies it now took, consoldiate like it did with Crimea, and keep on destabilising Ukraine with media wars, cyberwar, etc.

If the Ukrainian government chooses to start war against the away-falling territories, it gives Russia the alibi it needs to start a full scale invasion.

It is leaked in German media the EU now wants to launch parts of its sanctions - sanctions" against individuals", as long as no bigger invasion follows. Thats exactly the kind of sanctions that I would only laugh about.

The West failed to learn decyphering maskirovska while it had time. It had time to learn it since Crimea 2014. Thats what makes this failure so unforgivable. 7 years - and nothing learned, but now getting played against the wall once again.

Ridiculous.


The historic explanations given by Putin leave a question mark over any hope that Putin alrerady is done with the Ukraine. He might not be. He clearly has formulated claim for all of it.

[mapuc]

They will not only send troops into these two region they will also demolish the Ukrainian possibility to counter attack if they decide to do so.

I foresee a massive missile and air-attacks on military, industrial and government complex, at the same time.

Markus

[Buddahaid]

They will not only send troops into these two region they will also demolish the Ukrainian possibility to counter attack if they decide to do so.

I foresee a massive missile and air-attacks on military, industrial and government complex, at the same time.

Markus

I'm skeptical about that. Just my gut take.

[mapuc]

I'm skeptical about that. Just my gut take.


I do hope I'm wrong I just remembered the first Iraqi war where the allied not only threw bombs in Kuwait but also in Baghdad, Basra a.s.o.

Markus

[Catfish]

[...] No doubt Putin will give the order to send Russian troops into these two region-The question is what will Ukraine do and what will EU/NATO do ? Markus
Neal has perfectly explained it. In the moment Ukraine responds to provocations from Donetsk or Luhansk (and they will come), Russia will "help" like Hitler did 1939 in Poland, and Kyev and the Ukraine are toast.
Seems russians don't know history or they do not care what their 'president' does.
Mankind just made a fallback a hundred years.

[mapuc]

Neal has perfectly explained it. In the moment Ukraine responds to provocations from Donetsk or Luhansk (and they will come), Russia will "help" like Hitler did 1939 in Poland, and Kyev and the Ukraine are toast.
Seems russians don't know history or they do not care what their 'president' does.
Mankind just made a fallback a hundred years.

The latest news here is that Putin has decided to send peacemaking forces into these two regions.

Markus

[Skybird]

Yes, RIA reports orders have been given to the defence ministry that troops should be dispatched immediately.

Too bad I could not see the faces of Macronman and Bubblescholz, the over-smart superdiplomats.

[Catfish]

^ re Mapuc "peacekeeping forces" ordered by the "defence ministry":haha: of course. The peace will reach to Kyev, and beyond.
I know those are not your words, but the sheer infamy ..

[blackswan40]

Just like in 1938 Sudetenland crisis then three months later the German entered the capital Prague with a military band at the head of the column.
Then in July and August 1939 Danzig that narrow strip of land known as the Polish Corridor separating Germany from East Prussia Adolf Hitler did a False Flag operation dressing German criminals in Polish uniforms then shooting them outside the radio station in Gleiwitz German town on the Polish border and used it has a pretext to invade Poland as well as claiming Polish brutality on Germans living on the Polish side of the border.


If/When Ukraine gets attacked buy Russian forces and they swallow up Ukraine will the Russian Bear be satisfied or will the Baltic States be next.
Once the Russian Bear Krazy Ivan Putin gets a taste for Land Honey and all he gets from the west and USA is a few grumbles the next course can be devoured without a thought Poland Romania Bulgaria.


All the threats from Mr Putin instead of all this farcical half arsed diplomacy like Macron sat at the far end of a long table being owned by the headmaster Putin theres another option all 30 NATO Member states sign a draft document stating that all 30 Nato Members gaurantee Ukraines borders and mass 300k-400k NATO troops in Poland Slovakia Romania if any Russian Boots violate Ukraine territory then a state of war will be declared by NATO on Russia sometimes one has to play hardball if only we had Blood n Guts Paton on the Job he liked Trance Music also realy Andrew

yes he'd Tech-No-Chit off Russians .:D


If history teaches us one thing appeasement does not work only force will stop a tyrant.

[mapuc]

The development in Eastern Ukraine is speeding up now-Almost impossible to follow up on what happens- And one need sleep too.

Markus

[Skybird]

Biden has announced the immediate sanctions for today's coup. Reading them illustrates why Putin was not at all scared by them, their lameness is revealing.

Putin will get away with this latest stunt he pulled so far. EASILY.

[Rockstar]

Seems russians don't know history or they do not care what their 'president' does.

Umm I beg to differ.

Operation Barbarossa (Kaiser Rotbart) take two? :hmmm:. Just as the worlds very first war for oil ended so too will this. As it appears Russia is not willing too allow anyone block their access to Black Sea ports, oil fields and the mineral wealth in that region. They have a lot at stake here and it’s apparent they are willing to step up and defend it like they did eighty years ago.

Funny our last president came into office willing to discuss better relations with Russia but was publically ostracized by generals, opposition party fanbois, media and eventually ousted. So, here’s to our new leadership and the war monger ‘woke’ voters who put them in office. Long live war in the name of collusion, pee tapes, freedom and democracy baby. :har:

[Armistead]

Biden has announced the immediate sanctions for today's coup. Reading them illustrates why Putin was not at all scared by them, their lameness is revealing.

Putin will get away with this latest stunt he pulled so far. EASILY. Biden's tough sanctions look to be the typical low player stuff right now. The ones that would really crumble the Russian economy I haven't seen mentioned yet, such as cutting major Russian banks from the U.S. financial system. Regardless, sanctions that would have impact will cut both ways and I don't see the US or the EU really taking anything other than the low crank up approach.

[mapuc]

Strong words and sanction is what our elected politician can come up with against Putin and Russia.

They do not dare to do more than use words and sanctions.

I'm divided in this-one part of me is saying do not stir Putin he may do something terrible-while the other part is saying draw a line in the sand-and don't be afraid of the Ruskies.

Markus

[Buddahaid]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=upuCvWl8YS4