Here we go again-Ukraine once again [Archive] - Page 46

Skybird

06-08-23, 05:25 AM

Translation do not work.

Aaaaaaah..... :arrgh!:
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Who is behind the Nord Stream 2 blow-up? The trail leads increasingly clearly to Ukraine, but German experts and politicians remain skeptical

The Ukrainian army is said to have planned the attack on the pipeline - American and German intelligence services were informed months beforehand. Did the German government fail to protect critical infrastructure?

"Ukraine is the prime suspect." That was the assumption of a former senior official of Germany's foreign intelligence agency, the BND, on May 25. In a background interview with journalists, he addressed the attacks on the Nord Stream 1 and 2 gas pipelines last September. The former intelligence man cited his contacts in the security agencies, which he said were now investigating almost exclusively in that direction some nine months after the blast.

Russia's motives are weak, he said, and it would make more sense for Ukraine to blow up the pipeline: Moscow's main source of foreign currency would thus be drained, and the EU's most powerful member, Germany, would be forever disengaged from its fatal energy partnership with Russia.

An article published on Tuesday evening European time by the "Washington Post" supports this assessment: With reference to the so-called Pentagon Leaks, the American newspaper reported that an unnamed European intelligence service is said to have learned from a source in the Ukrainian general staff three months before the explosions about a Ukrainian plan to blow up the Nord Stream 1 pipeline in June 2022. The CIA was then informed, he said, and in turn shared the knowledge with the German government.
However, intelligence and maritime security experts warn against jumping to conclusions. It remains completely unclear whether Ukraine was behind the attacks. German foreign policy experts from government and opposition parties echo these doubts - and warn against possible Russian disinformation.
Gerhard Conrad, a former senior BND official, believes that the research by the Washington Post has a high degree of credibility. "The fact that there was a detailed report on a Ukrainian plan to carry out an attack on Nord Stream 1 in June is, in my view, now sufficiently proven," Conrad tells the NZZ. "This is additional evidence, but nothing more. In the end, as we know, the plan was not carried out in June."

Conrad adds that there are still strong indications that Russia was involved in the act. For example, he says, a Russian ship with special equipment for underwater operations had been in the vicinity of the explosion site just a few days earlier for no apparent reason and with its transponder turned off. Also, from Ukraine's point of view, it would make little sense to completely destroy Nord Stream 1 but leave one leg of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline intact.
This is also pointed out by frigate captain Göran Swistek, who today works as an expert on maritime security for the German Institute for International and Security Affairs. He still considers the Russian state a likely perpetrator. At the beginning of investigations after terrorist attacks, he says, the question always arises as to who has the capabilities and motivation for such an operation.

When it comes to capabilities, everything points first to Russia: "For example, Russia has invested massively in the development of underwater drones in recent years and has shown a strong interest in mapping the North and Baltic Seas," Swistek says in the interview. "In addition, blasting required specific expertise in pipelines, which was most readily available in Russia."
When asked about motivation, Swistek also believes Russian involvement is more likely: "Russia had a specific interest. Chaos in the energy markets before winter and uncertainty in European societies." For Ukraine, on the other hand, there was a clear disproportion between effort and return.

In an interview with the NZZ, the foreign policy spokesman of the FDP parliamentary group in the German Bundestag, Ulrich Lechte, also questions the benefits: "Why should Ukraine have attacked the pipeline at a time when the Germans were already supplying Kiev with weapons, no more gas was running through Nord Stream 1 and politicians were already announcing that they would look for alternatives to Russian gas?"

Lechte does not want to rule out anything in principle in the case. But the foreign policy expert considers the variant that Ukraine is supposed to have initiated the detonation "completely absurd." Especially since this took place at a time when the whole of Europe was supporting the country.

"We must not forget that Russian intelligence services in particular are currently pursuing advanced Cold War forms of work - with disinformation and false-flag operations," warns former BND employee Gerhard Conrad.
"It is even conceivable, and thus first to be clarified, that the alleged Ukrainian plan was Russian disinformation fed as game material to the European intelligence service cited by the 'Washington Post' in order to steer the trail of its own later attack on Ukraine," Conrad explains. "The script for the attack would then have been written in Moscow itself right away and implemented with modifications at the operationally appropriate time."

CDU member of the Bundestag Roderich Kiesewetter also points this out: "The Russian war of aggression against Ukraine is also an information war," says the opposition politician. "It may be that false leads were deliberately laid. That's why I advise caution."
So whether Ukraine carried out the attack or not remains doubtful. But one thing is almost certainly clear: the German government was aware of a plan to blow up the pipelines three months before the attack. Why didn't it act?
"After the intelligence reports became known, the government could have shown a stronger presence with warships, but also with ships of the Federal Police," says former frigate captain Swistek. "In addition, the German government could have exerted political influence on Ukraine."

Gerhard Conrad agrees. The former employee of Germany's foreign intelligence service suspects that, after dutifully informing the Parliamentary Control Committee, the German government probably hoped for the best and trusted that Ukrainian plans would remain "on hold," as the cited intelligence report puts it. "For other measures, moreover, it would have been imperative to have the agreement of the European service, which led the possible source in the Ukrainian General Staff and was responsible for its security."

FDP foreign policy expert Lechte concedes that Germany could possibly have intensified surveillance measures in the Baltic Sea, but he cannot see a fundamental failure on the part of the German government. "Anyone who knows the business of intelligence services knows that sometimes false information is deliberately fed into the system," says the FDP politician. "If politicians were to act immediately after every such report as if it were the truth, we would have hopeless chaos in the world."

Even after the sensational "Washington Post" report, the public is as smart as ever about the fundamental aspects of the Nord Stream sabotage. Frigate Captain Göran Swistek hopes that examinations of the explosives detected by Swedish investigators will help clarify the origin of the perpetrators. Still, he remains skeptical: "I don't believe we'll get a clear picture in the coming days and weeks."

[NZZ German Link] (https://www.nzz.ch/international/nord-stream-deutsche-politiker-glauben-nicht-an-tat-der-ukraine-ld.1741410?_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_sl=auto)
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What would be interesting to know is whether the remaining fourth pipeline that did not blow up intentioanlly was spared, or whether it was tried to explode it but it failed for technical mishaps, or whether those doing the deed for some reason ran out of time at the end to complete the preparation.

Skybird

06-08-23, 05:42 AM

The flooding has consequences for the occupiers along the Dnjipro, they had to fall back by severla kilometers, and many of their minefields and entrenchements have been lost. I wonder how man such mines now are scattered across the landscape, wildly, uncharted, ending up in the most unsuspicous places.

Jimbuna

06-08-23, 06:30 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ifz1QlEVJME

Jimbuna

06-08-23, 06:42 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8WJiJP7qXDo

Jimbuna

06-08-23, 07:01 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ifz1QlEVJME&t=1s

mapuc

06-08-23, 09:25 AM

A group of Nato countries may be willing to put troops on the ground in Ukraine if member states including the US do not provide tangible security guarantees to Kyiv at the alliance’s summit in Vilnius, the former Nato secretary general Anders Rasmussen has said.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/07/nato-members-may-send-troops-to-ukraine-warns-former-alliance-chief

Markus

Dargo

06-08-23, 10:14 AM

Ukraine launched attack at various points on the front, first Leopard 2 seen
There are increasing indications that the Ukrainian army has launched attacks in several locations to retake occupied territory. Russian military bloggers have been reporting heavy fighting at several locations along the southern frontline for the past three days. Meanwhile, the first photos of a modern Leopard 2 tank active on this southern frontline have also been published. These tanks have been donated to Ukraine by Western countries in recent months. Ukraine had already announced a major offensive to drive out the Russian army this spring, but for tactical reasons is not giving details of the plan of attack. Military analysts reckon that there will be heavy fighting, especially along the southern line between Kamjanske (on the Dnipro River) and Voehledar. A breakthrough on this line might allow the Ukrainian army to make an advance towards the occupied city of Melitopol and eventually launch an attack on Crimea as well.

Heavy fighting is now taking place on several fronts. On Thursday, there are many reports of attacks near Orichiv, just east of Kamjanske. Earlier this week, Ukraine carried out attacks on the front west of Voehledar. Fighting north near Bakhmut has also intensified in recent days. As far as is known, the waves of attacks have not yet resulted in extensive ground gains. Ukrainian citizens are urged not to share details on social media. As a result, most information about the attack waves has come from Russian military bloggers. These mostly extreme-nationalist bloggers are often critical of the Russian military. But their information, especially when there are reports of a Ukrainian advance, has so far often proved reliable. Several bloggers currently speak mainly of intense fighting in various locations. The offensive has begun, says former commander of the Dutch land forces Mart de Kruif. 'Indeed, we can say that we have already passed the initial phase of the offensive. In recent weeks, Ukraine already had operations deep behind the front to eliminate logistical hubs. Across the entire width of the front, the next phase is now beginning: fighting on and around trenches.' Ukraine's attack is also likely to involve newly delivered Western tanks. On Thursday, a pro-Russian Telegram channel published some images of a Leopard 2 tank. The drone footage shows a column of five vehicles, including two Leopard 2 tanks. The army vehicles were deployed near the town of Orichiv in Zaporizhzhya province on Wednesday. The location of the images has been verified and there are no indications that they have been tampered with.

https://i.postimg.cc/8kyXBszs/leopard2.webp

Former commander De Kruif thinks he saw a Leopard 2A4, but does not dare say for sure. If it is true, says lieutenant colonel and engineer officer Carel Sellmeijer, you also have to wonder what it means. 'It could indicate that the Ukrainians are undertaking a serious attack there, but it could also be used for deception, so that the Russians actually think that the big offensive is taking place there, and they send a lot of army units to that spot.' https://www.volkskrant.nl/nieuws-achtergrond/oekraine-heeft-op-verschillende-plekken-aan-het-front-de-aanval-ingezet-eerste-leopard-2-gezien~bdcd2124/

Skybird

06-08-23, 10:21 AM

Dargo

06-08-23, 10:37 AM

I think all these attacks still are probing attacks only, to find a tasty weak spot. Its like it was expected to be in the beginning.
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Ukraine says Russian troops withdrew further than previously thought from their now flooded defence lines. Up to 15 km. Toxic mud is said to flow down the stream and settle on the gropund to poison the water going into the Black sea for long time to come. The losses in fertile farming ground are catastrophic, the toxinbes wander with the ground water and so affect also areas not flooded. The UN - I think it was the UN - said the losses of harvestable grains could be in the billions of tons.Lieutenant-Colonel Tom Simoens (Royal Military School, Brussels) also said this morning he could deduce from the reports "with a certain degree of certainty" that the expected Ukrainian counteroffensive has begun. "It has been months since, from during the previous counter-offensives in the autumn of 2022, there was so much activity on the battlefield," he said. "The Russian sources may be colored, but they don't spread these reports for no reason either," Simoens said. Stepping up the attack now would also make the most sense from a Ukrainian point of view. "Since Monday, we already saw limited attacks with smaller numbers of soldiers and vehicles. Perhaps those were so-called 'probing attacks', small-scale attacks to 'test' Russian defenses. But it makes no sense to carry out those smaller attacks and then not follow through. So I don't expect them to slow down now."

At popular blog Wargonzo, it sounds that Ukraine deployed four battalions with at least 120 vehicles in its attacks last night. "After an immense artillery barrage (no exaggeration, it was really heavy, with Himars participating), four columns advanced towards our defensive lines, each with 25 to 30 vehicles." Tanks, aircraft and helicopters were also reportedly deployed in the process. Exactly how many brigades Ukraine is deploying is not yet clear. Perhaps not all troops and vehicles have yet been deployed, some of which are being held back as reserves anyway, and some of which will only be deployed in the later stages of the offensive to exploit the recaptured areas. Independent confirmation of the reports is also not yet available. Ukraine has maintained strict operational silence since this week to avoid harming the course of operations. According to the well-known Russian blog Wargonzo, most of last night's attacks were repelled "with heavy losses for Ukraine". Thus, images of Ukrainian armored cars and tanks are circulating, possibly involving Leopard 2 tanks from the West. Russian sources claim several tanks and vehicles were knocked out. In at least two places, Ukraine would have been able to force a breakthrough, though. The fortified positions would simply have been wiped out with artillery.

Still, Simoens warns that Ukrainian losses are also inevitable. "I expect thousands of casualties in the first days, including along the Ukrainian side. We are going to see destroyed Leopard tanks and US Bradley armored vehicles, and Russian propaganda channels are going to exploit those losses in an unprecedented way. Ukraine and the West need to prepare for that, but there is no other way. Offensives like this are the hardest thing in the world, no matter how hard Ukraine prepares. The Russians can set up a new minefield unseen at night, which Ukrainian tanks smash into in the morning. That is almost inevitable." https://www.demorgen.be/oorlog-in-oekraine/immense-artilleriebarrage-en-eerste-leopard-tanks-in-aanval-russen-in-paniek-door-oekraiens-tegenoffensief~b5fec8ce/

Dargo

06-08-23, 10:47 AM

'Ukrainian counteroffensive has erupted'
The Ukrainian army's long-awaited counteroffensive erupted in earnest last night. So say four sources in the army to The Washington Post (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/06/08/russia-ukraine-war-news-counteroffensive/). The offensive began with heavy shelling of Russian positions along the front line. A soldier stationed in Zaporizhzhya province spoke of "continuous heavy fighting". Russian military bloggers also reported heavy Ukrainian shelling and subsequent ground attacks last night. For now, the main Ukrainian offensive seems to be coming in Zaporizhzhya province, from Orichiv towards Tokmak. There, the Ukrainians have deployed Leopard 2 tanks, indicating their interest in this offensive.

Tokmak and further south, Melitopol had long been seen as very likely targets for a Ukrainian counteroffensive. If Kiev can capture those places and manage to reach the Black Sea coast, the Russian-occupied territory will be split in two. That will make supplying Russian units on the front significantly more difficult. 'It is very tough on the battlefield,' the Ukrainian soldier told The Washington Post. 'Our artillery and air force are deployed, but so are those of the Russians. It is difficult for us and for them. Our forces are advancing, but not as fast as we would have liked.' Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maljar writes on Telegram that the Russians have been forced onto the defensive near Orichiv. She also reports fighting in eastern Donetsk province, near Velyka Novosilka. Russian authorities say that all Ukrainian offensives in Zaporizhzhya have been repulsed, and the Ukrainians have suffered heavy losses. However, in previous successful Ukrainian offensives, similar reports came from Moscow, which later proved false.

Dargo

06-08-23, 12:43 PM

Dargo

06-08-23, 12:54 PM

Norwegian independent seismic monitoring foundation NORSAR, who's primary mission is observing compliance with the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, saying seismic signals indicate there was an explosion at the Nova Kakhovka Dam.

"Data from regional seismic stations show clear signals on Tuesday 6 June at 2:54 local time... The time and place coincide with reports in the media about the collapse of the Kakhovka dam. The signals indicate that there is an explosion." Magnitude estimate is between 1 and 2.

The figure below shows the signal from the Bukovina (BURAR) seismic array, a measuring station in Romania. The distance from the dam is 620 km.

https://i.postimg.cc/pTvrx7q7/burar.png
https://www-jordskjelv-no.translate.goog/meldinger/seismiske-signaler-er-registrert-fra-eksplosjon-ved-kakhovka-demningen-i-ukraina?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp

Dargo

06-08-23, 01:01 PM

Air alert everywhere except Ternopil Oblast. Four Kalibr cruise missiles incoming to Kyiv, via Cherkasy Oblast, but air defenses working there, and explosions reported in Uman. Skies said to be clear, missiles shot down, expecting all-clear. https://twitter.com/Euan_MacDonald/status/1666858738119061519

Russian MOD is really stupid, wasting cruise missiles on civilians rather than military targets.

Jimbuna

06-08-23, 01:05 PM

The Russians see civilian attacks as being more beneficial in terms of bringing pressure on the Ukraine command structure probably.

Jimbuna

06-08-23, 01:14 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JS2neOeLjIg

Dargo

06-08-23, 01:21 PM

Ukraine military rescue people from the flooded area in Russian occupied territory, people say Russia does nothing for them.

Jimbuna

06-08-23, 01:22 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7LBQxpwc4SA

Dargo

06-08-23, 01:24 PM

The Russians see civilian attacks as being more beneficial in terms of bringing pressure on the Ukraine command structure probably.In history this never worked UK did not surrender, Nazi Germany did not surrender because of the bombing and Vietnam also did not surrender because of this.

mapuc

06-08-23, 01:26 PM

In history this never worked UK did not surrender, Nazi Germany did not surrender because of the bombing and Vietnam also did not surrender because of this.

It made the civilians in these countries more determined

Markus

Jimbuna

06-08-23, 01:29 PM

This is Russia and destroying by whatever means is a common strategy for them.

mapuc

06-08-23, 01:32 PM

Going back to article I posted earlier today.

If Poland and some other NATO country who has border to Ukraine, send troops, wouldn't Russia see this as NATO has directly taken part in the war ?

Markus

Jimbuna

06-08-23, 01:36 PM

Obviously and if a NATO member sets foot on Russian soil you can expect a nuclear response, if not strategic but highly likely of a tactical nature.

Skybird

06-08-23, 01:57 PM

Drones just wanna have their share of fun, too.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ihVAXw08Jg

Skybird

06-08-23, 01:58 PM

mapuc

06-08-23, 02:17 PM

An extra update from Denys Davydov

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N85cRT5JWvc&ab_channel=DenysDavydov

Markus

Dargo

06-08-23, 03:10 PM

Water from destroyed dam no longer enough to cool, Zaporizhia nuclear power plant switches to reserve cooling water
The water level in the reservoir of Ukraine's Dnieper River has dropped so much after the dam breach that the water can no longer be used to cool the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant. Therefore, it is now necessary to switch to reserves. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) earlier said there is no acute danger as there is enough cooling water for several months.

The cooling water reservoir at the nuclear facility is still fully filled. However, the IAEA is concerned about the safety of the reservoir. The plant could also still use the water system of the nearby city of Enerhodar, and in case of emergency, the fire brigade could bring water.

According to the IAEA, staff have been preparing for a possible collapse of the Kakhovka dam since 2011. Nevertheless, it is a "very difficult and unpredictable nuclear safety situation". The plant has already taken measures to reduce water use.

The nuclear power plant in southern Ukraine, the largest in Europe, was taken at the beginning of the Russian invasion. There is regular shelling in the area, which has on several occasions caused problems for the power supply to the nuclear complex. External power is needed to cool reactors at the nuclear plant and for other safety functions.

Dnieper 'impassable for a long time' for cargo ships
The blowing up of the Kakhovka dam also has major consequences for inland navigation in Ukraine. So says Yevheni Ihnatenko, head of Ukraine's shipping authority. The water level in the reservoir behind the dam has now fallen below 14 meters, officially prohibiting cargo ships from sailing there.

The Dnieper flows from north to south across Ukraine, and is "the main artery of inland navigation in Ukraine", according to Ihnatenko. The river carries goods from a to Black Sea ports. But with the reservoir emptying, the last part of the river will be unnavigable for 'a long time', according to Ihnatenko. Rebuilding the dam and hydropower plant is expected to cost a billion dollars and take five years.

About 50 vessels are also still in the reservoir, which will empty in the coming days. The shipping authority is working to get them through the lock upstream as soon as possible so that they do not run out of water. The reservoir is expected to run almost completely dry.

Skybird

06-08-23, 03:12 PM

An extra update from Denys Davydov

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N85cRT5JWvc&ab_channel=DenysDavydov

Markus

Meine Fresse... :o

If that video is true, that Ukrainian tank group leader - I edited the rest. Total failure there.

Zero spacing. Unbelievable. Two tanks or so even almost drove into each other.

If that is what all that Western training leads to, then something went terribly wrong there, and just claiming there was not enough time is no excuse, for spacing and formation according to tactical situation is small 101 of tank manouvering. Thats BASIC stuff. BASIC.

Heck, even if you only played SBP and never red anything on ground and tank tactics and have no idea or clue, experience in the sim already would have taught you the lesson that this is not how you should move a column when enemy shelling or overflights must be expected.

As attackers in this offensive the Ukraine must expect heavier losses than the Russian "defenders". But things like this better do not happen too often to them, else they can fold their cards and quit the war. Such failures just must not happen. Such waste they cannot afford.

edit: some of the comments at youtube mention minefields. Even if its in a minefield, you still can drive in a column (and are strongly advised to do so...) The issue here is spacing, and spacing alone. Better: the lack of it.

Dargo

06-08-23, 04:25 PM

Not Kakhovka Dam alone: Russia destroys dams in occupied Zaporizhzhia oblast
While western media largely ‘play safe’ and report that Kyiv and Moscow ‘are blaming each other’ for the horrific disaster, the Russian invaders are actively destroying other dams in occupied parts of Zaporizhzhia oblast
It is not only the warnings since October 2022 that Russia might destroy the Kakhovka Dam, and, more recently, that the invaders were overfilling the dam, that cast doubts over Russia’s attempts to blame Ukraine for the catastrophic disaster now unfolding in Kherson oblast. Russia is also either building or destroying dams in occupied parts of Zaporizhzhia oblast, with its aim clearly to flood the territory and thus impede the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ anticipated counter-offensive.

The Centre for Journalist Investigations [CJI], citing local residents, reported on 7 June that the Russian invaders are either destroying dams on reservoirs or erecting them to ensure that the water overflows and floods roads and fields. It is assumed that the aim is to create bog-like conditions in the hope that this will prevent the advance of Ukraine’s Armed Forces.

CJI’s contacts have sent photos from the outskirts of occupied Tokmak, where, on the exit in the direction of Berdiansk (also under occupation), the Russians have erected a dam near the bridge over the Tokmachka River. The dam has resulted in a significant increase in the water level, with the shores overflowing. According to the head of the Tokmak municipal military administration, Oleksandr Chub, there is no immediate danger to people’s homes, however fields on the outskirts of the city have already been flooded. CJI has also learned of similar danger of flooding near the village of Udarnyk between the Tokmak and Pryazovske raions. The Russians have also destroyed a dam separating ponds from the River Molochna with this likely to lead to fields being flooded around Udarnyk and Hrushevka.

Berdiansk Online posted photos of local flooding and reported that “the occupiers are organizing local ‘Kakhovka’ [disasters] in Zaporizhzhia oblast. The Telegram channel noted that there had been earlier reports of such deliberate flooding of land in the Yakymivka raion . On 6 June, they added, it was learned that the Russian military had first filled private ponds around the villages of Chornozemne; Peremozhne; Viazivka; Petrivks and others to the maximum water level and then bombed the dams. This has led to the road to Kherson being flooded, as well as agricultural land. The flooding caused by the bombing of a dam in Chornozemne can be seen here.

None of this compares in scale to the tragic consequences from the flooding caused by the explosion that ripped apart the Kakhovska Dam, but there are suspicious similarities. There had been complaints over the last two months of a dangerously high water level in the reservoir behind the Kakhovka Dam, and of local flooding caused by this.

In an interview to Donbas Realities on 7 June, Ihor Syrota, Director General of Ukrhydroenerho, dismissed Russia’s attempt to blame Ukraine for the disaster, claiming that the dam had been damaged by Ukrainian shelling. Although the Kakhovka Hydro-Electric Power Plant is on territory under Russian occupation since the beginning of its full-scale invasion, Ukrainian staff had remained at the plant until October when it was taken over entirely by the Russian military and used for their purposes. From then on, Ukraine’s leaders had warned of the danger that Russia might blow up the Dam, with the Institute for the Study of War also suggesting that there was such a danger. Syrota and Ukraine’s Military Intelligence [HUR] are in no doubt that the damage was caused by an explosion from inside the power plant.

Syrota points out that you can see a rift in half of the power plant which could only have happened if the explosion was inside the station. This view appears to be shared by the New York Times, and the experts they spoke with. One of these, Nick Glumac, an explosives specialist and Professor of Engineering at Illinois University, stated that even a direct hit from a warhead would not have destroyed the dam as the amount of explosives it can carry is limited.

The Kakhovka power plant cannot be repaired, Syrota says, and warns that there were over 450 tons of machine oil at the plant, with over 150 tons having already been spilled into the river. Whether the reservoir is emptied fully will depend on whether the dam was destroyed at its bottom or not. Judging by the damage visible, however, he assumes that there is a 90% likelihood of the worst scenario, with the reservoir being totally drained in the space of four days.

Asked whether he believes that this was a deliberate explosion and result that the Russians were seeking, Syrota notes that in everything since 24 February 2022, there is a constant lack of logic. On the other hand, you need only look at the atrocities and devastation that the Russians left behind them in Bucha, Mariupol, Volnovakha, Bakhmut, etc., to see that they have, what he calls, a barbaric approach. “They understand that the counter-offensive is underway, and they simply detonate and dismantle everything that can be destroyed or dismantled. For them, nothing has any value.”

Throughout the world, such actions against nuclear or hydro-electric power plants cannot be viewed as anything but acts of terrorism.

Judging by the reports coming from Kherson oblast, the Russian invaders are also doing little to rescue residents of places on the left bank of the Dnipro under Russian occupation. They are, reportedly, prohibiting people from trying to evacuate themselves, with the only alternative they offer being ‘evacuation’ to Russia, According to Yury Sobolevsky, First Deputy Head of the Kherson Regional Council, the Russian military are not helping residents to escape the flooding, and are instead obstructing volunteers trying to help others to evacuate. There have even been reports of the military attempting to extort money for ‘permission’ to leave in boats or free people clinging for their lives to roofs, which are often all that remain above water. https://khpg.org/en/1608812358

Jimbuna

06-09-23, 05:39 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7_avjzntfOc

Jimbuna

06-09-23, 06:18 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DEPnUNeOGTM

Jimbuna

06-09-23, 11:00 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2iU0RPrsoVQ

Skybird

06-09-23, 01:10 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cKNpgm20Vcg

Set subtitles to English translation.

Catfish

06-09-23, 02:13 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2iU0RPrsoVQ
China was NOT "there for 5000 years". Their local warlords and leaders were quite happy to wage their own local wars, China never really opened to the rest of the world. The first initiative that did something was Bill Clinton's policy. Maybe he should have abstained :03:

Skybird

06-09-23, 05:43 PM

Reports mount at an alarming rate that the air situation is causing Kyiv big troubles. Russia has adapted to what the Ukrainians did to them last year, and now flood the air with drones that guide in their artillery. The Ukrainian attacks have not yet bogged down, but they ran into much stiffer resistence than last year - right as I predicted. The tanks and armoured vehicles have currently possibly not he ammount of protection from the armada of Russian drones that they need. Many more Gepards are demanded, and qickly. Its possible that Russian claims to have taken out one of the Isis systems is true. If so, thats a big loss. Kyiv's mayor Klitschko said that in Kyiv the system so far has a hit rate of 100%. But the Germana have send a few more meanwheile, and two of them are with the combat troops near or at the fronts.

One must not forget that Ukraine fights in numerical inferiority already at the beginning of this offensive. I dont like what the media have to say on the attacks and fights so far. Things must improve, or there will come big problems.

MaDef

06-09-23, 06:05 PM

China was NOT "there for 5000 years". Their local warlords and leaders were quite happy to wage their own local wars, China never really opened to the rest of the world. The first initiative that did something was Bill Clinton's policy. Maybe he should have abstained :03:
I think Nixon beat Clinton to the punch back in 72'

Rockstar

06-09-23, 06:50 PM

I think Nixon beat Clinton to the punch back in 72'

I thought the same too and let’s not forget everyone’s favorite National Security Advisor Henry Kissinger was a major player in preparing that visit.

.

Jimbuna

06-10-23, 04:15 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MQOAj4uz0Lo

Jimbuna

06-10-23, 04:36 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TKKwH34gthA

Skybird

06-10-23, 05:28 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MQOAj4uz0Lo
He doesnt know tanks, this is no leo2 a4 as he claims, but the frontal turret shows wedged armour, it is a5 or higher. A5 were not delivered i think, at least not by germany, but a6. It must be an a6 therefore.

The bradley is not in sand camouflage, i think it is night vision photo/thermal: bright means hot. :ping:

Jimbuna

06-10-23, 06:01 AM

I doubt we'll ever get a full, clear and accurate take on matters until hostilities cease....should that ever happen.

Skybird

06-10-23, 06:59 AM

I doubt we'll ever get a full, clear and accurate take on matters until hostilities cease....should that ever happen.
Thats why I dont give much for these videos from many sources, no matter which side they favour. They all are no informaiton but propaganda, based on previous propaganda, even if the authors mean to be honest.

Dargo

06-10-23, 07:07 AM

Surprise me that after a couple of lost vehicles, people think Ukraine counteroffensive is lost. This terrain where they're now fighting is open terrain, strong defense lines and Ukraine lacks air superiority, so we will see in the coming days/weeks high loses as in any offensive. That is the old normal of war. It is also not all about material leadership on the fronts, and all the organization behind the front is a great factor.

Skybird

06-10-23, 08:02 AM

I didn't say that the offensive was lost. But this spacing thing really upset me, something like that should not happen, and it doesn't matter if they were in a minefield or under heavy rocket fire. If this was a one-time "mishap," then that's fine. But if it is an indicator of the general level of training of their armored troops, then they are going to have problems.

Whether in column or in line or in any other formation, the individual tank commander is responsible for maintaining the correct distance (as ordered) from the vehicle in front of him, and to a lesser extent from the one behind him, or the two vehicles to his right and left. However, the formation commander, whether a platoon or a company, is responsible for overlooking and by command correcting the relative positions of ALL vehicles within the formation and must also decide when to change formation and what distance to maintain. The platoon leader has to be aware of the spacing between the 4 tanks in his platoon, he has to check it and overview it.

When you have enemy drones in the air and are within firing range of enemy missiles and artillery, you obviously do not want to clot your units in a crowded place and within minum spacing, even and especially when you pass through a minefield. Time may be critical, but still - yoo must increase spacing so much so that if one vehicle hits a mine the vehicle behind has enough time to react and stop instead of just blindly evading to the side at last moment - and then runs on a mine outside the cleared passage, too. The video also shows that already the columned approach had way too tight spacing. A welcomed feast for cluster ammunition or drone-guided artillery barrages. Or low flying CAS.

Such things are already not nice if you have hundreds and hundreds of tanks. If you only have a very limited number of advanced tanks, then every single loss counts multiple times as heavy.

mapuc

06-10-23, 08:13 AM

The last few days I have been bombarded with all kind of news from this offensive-What is true and what's not.

I hope that the Ukrainian have success in their effort to gain land.

Markus

Jimbuna

06-10-23, 11:33 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ra2OrBrQ6I

Skybird

06-10-23, 11:43 AM

Jimbuna

06-10-23, 11:58 AM

Russian economy 'collapsing' while Putin treats people as 'objects to be herded into war'

The life chances and economic potential of Russians "will continue to collapse" due to the choices made by the current regime, an expert has claimed. Russian President Vladimir Putin has failed his fellow citizens by not spending the foreign investments once pouring into the country on the wellbeing and development of Russia, John Bryson, professor at Birmingham University, told Express.co.uk. The resources that could have boosted, for instance, the healthcare and civilian industry sectors went instead into war campaigns which, followed by the Western sanctions and reduced foreign investments, sparked economic crises.

The Chair in Enterprise and Economic Geography at Birmingham Business School told Express.co.uk: "If you look at Russia's economy, it's really quite interesting, as soon as Putin annexed Crimea, Russia's economy began to collapse.

"Russia moved up from being a medium-income country to being a high-income country, and in 2014 it shifted back down to being a middle-income country.

"So the life chances and the economic potential of the average Russian since 2014 has collapsed and will continue to collapse with all the various sanctions and waste of investments that Putin has put into this war."

As noted by the expert, in February 2014 Moscow's troops annexed Crimea and started interfering in eastern Ukraine.

A huge number of Russian soldiers were filmed fleeing the battlefield as Ukraine carries out an intense assault against Vladimir Putin's forces.

The shocking scene caught on camera by Ukrainian armed forces shows dozens of Russian troops running away from Ukrainian shelling. The dramatic retreat is thought to have taken place near Zaporizhzhia, a site of a major Ukrainian attack.

The EU, the US and Canada responded at the time by issuing three types of sanctions - including restricting access to Western financial markets and services for designated Russian state-owned enterprises in a number of sectors, the embargo on exports to Russia of designated high-technology oil exploration and production equipment and an embargo on exports to Russia of designated military and dual-use goods.

In the last months of that same year, Russia's oil prices fell sharply, an effect which, combined with the sanctions, caused significant pressure on the value of the Rouble.

In the first quarter of 2015, the country entered recession, with a GDP growth of -2.2 per cent compared to the same period in the previous year.

Professor Bryson vividly expressed how he thinks the Russian population was wronged, saying: "I was writing op-eds in February and March last year, in which I was basically talking about the tragedy of the Russian people.

"And the tragedy of the Russian people is that they have a leadership that is not concerned in any way about the average Russian.

"They are only interested in the elite that are in control and are in governance.

"So the average Russian is an object that can be herded into war, the death and destruction of those Russians is completely unimportant, because they supposedly can be replaced."

Had funds been properly invested into the country and its people rather than war and the elites, Professor Bryson believes Russians would be enjoying a quality of life similar to that of prosperous nations.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/russian-economy-collapsing-while-putin-treats-people-as-objects-to-be-herded-into-war/ar-AA1cmKEl?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=cb92a036310d409d808224cd428772bc&ei=14

Dargo

06-10-23, 12:28 PM

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-ukrainian.html

Two Leopard 2A6 and one Leopard 2A4 lost, 11 Bradleys lost, several other armoured vehicles from European partners lost.

The offensive seems to stuck in severla places.

The only reason I am so obsessed and pedantic with Ukrainian losses is that Ukraine is so short on numbers, has so short breath to sustain such losses. 10% of the promised and partially delivered Bradleys already gone.

IknowIknow - high losses were to be expected. Question is how long Ukraine can afford these and how long Russian defence can keep up the pressure. In many places their artillery and air force seem to have the upper hand.

On as sidenote, Rheinmetall said where they recommended to change the barrels for the Panzerhaubitze 2000 every 4500 shots, the Ukrainians use for for 20000 shots before changing them. Rheimetall says it is surprised by how well the German kits hold together. The Marders also are in high demand, Russian 30mm rounds cannot penetrate it at the front, the Ukrainians absolutely love the Marders, RM says. Well. Its still one of the best protected IFVs wordwide, and it still has a super-rapid and superprecise autocannon, though that lacks in power a bit (20mm).Even a Leopard 2 can break down. Kurds have already taken out a Turkish Leopard 2 in northern Syria. A vehicle is only effective if you use it properly, on the right terrain, otherwise you are always vulnerable. One of the biggest worries on the Ukrainian side is that if they have that breakthrough, the Russian air force is going to step in massively on that. So Ukraine will also have to position the bulk of its air defenses there, including the fighters, to keep the Russian air force away from there. You have to have all your assets in the right place at the right time. You don't do that overnight, it's a matter of days and weeks to plan that. Right now, fighting is taking place in several places. It is not yet clear where the main attack will come. So you force Russia to constantly make the choice: where am I going to deploy the reserves or deploy myself to counter a breakthrough? How effective will the Russian air force be? And how effective the Ukrainian air defense? These are the crucial issues that will determine how the Ukrainian counteroffensive, which has really taken off in the last few days, will turn out. I think we will know more in a week's time.

mapuc

06-10-23, 12:32 PM

^
Let the enemy fumble in the dark-A Markus proverb.

Markus

Dargo

06-10-23, 12:49 PM

^
Let the enemy fumble in the dark-A Markus proverb.

MarkusThe outcome of wars and battles is often determined by reserves because they are often experienced and well-trained soldiers. Russia will want to deploy its reserves where the danger of a breakthrough is the greatest Ukraine will do everything in its power to mislead the Russians so that the chances of Ukrainians encountering Russian reserves are minimized, or that those reserves arrive too late. The Zaporizhzhia region is the most logical option. Then you can push on to the Sea of Azov and break the land link between Russia and Crimea. But you can also regain a lot of ground in Luhansk and then head north towards Kharkiv.

Jimbuna

06-10-23, 12:53 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WybT-1T-pUA

Dargo

06-10-23, 12:54 PM

Ukraine reports small ground gain, videos show abandoned or destroyed Leopard 2 tanks
The Ukrainian army reported small ground gains on the front line on Saturday. It is too early to evaluate to what extent the counteroffensive is successful, military experts say. Ukraine says it has liberated territory near the town of Bakhmut, which fell entirely to Russia only last month. The Ukrainian army forced the Russian army back to 1.4 kilometers at several positions near the occupied town, a spokesman for the Ukrainian armed forces said Saturday.

Statements from both armies are difficult to verify in the fog of the counter-offensive. What is clear is that heavy fighting took place again in eastern and southeastern Ukraine on Saturday. Videos show Ukrainian soldiers storming Russian trenches with the help of US armored vehicles. A resident of an occupied village in Zaporizhzhia province reported Saturday via Telegram heavy explosions near Tokmak, a town Ukraine is supposed to recapture in order to advance towards greater Melitopol. President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed on Saturday for the first time that Ukraine is engaged in a counteroffensive, but did not say at what stage the offensive is. The Ukrainian army urged the population not to spread information about the offensive via a video of soldiers with their index finger on their lip.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Friday that the Ukrainian offensive has begun. Russia claims to have stopped the Ukrainian attacks so far. Videos circulated by Russian military bloggers and verified by The New York Times show three abandoned or destroyed German Leopard 2 tanks of the Ukrainian army.

The offensive will last for months, military experts expect. 'First impressions are more reminiscent of Kherson than Kharkiv,' writes Michael Kofman, expert on the Russian military at US think tank CNA. In Kharkiv province last year, Ukraine liberated an area the size of a quarter of the Netherlands within three weeks. By contrast, the offensive in Kherson province, where a smaller area was liberated, was much slower and at a higher cost: it took the Ukrainian army more than three months to drive the Russian army from the west bank of the Dnipro.

Meanwhile, Russia is carrying out new airstrikes on Ukrainian cities. In Odesa on Saturday, three civilians were killed in a Russian attack by Iranian drones, Ukrainian authorities reported. In Kherson province, a Russian artillery strike killed two aid workers who were working to evacuate civilians from houses flooded by the breach of the Nova Kachovkadam. At least 27 people are reported missing in the flood area by Ukrainian authorities. https://www.volkskrant.nl/nieuws-achtergrond/oekraine-meldt-kleine-terreinwinst-video-s-tonen-verlaten-of-verwoeste-leopard-2-tanks~b5d8416b/

Jimbuna

06-10-23, 01:01 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OWcJkyXKXvI

Skybird

06-10-23, 02:03 PM

Even a Leopard 2 can break down. Kurds have already taken out a Turkish Leopard 2 in northern Syria.
No.

Several Leopards, some say over one dozen, some even say up to 40 Leopard 2A4s had been taken out because Turkish commanders knew sh!t about how to operate MBTs in urban environment and send them in all alone and did not protect them with the needed infantry support that tanks in cities and urban areas desperately need. Also, the A4 is less thick-armoured than later models. Its a tank that arrived when I was still at school.

A vehicle is only effective if you use it properly, on the right terrain, otherwise you are always vulnerable. One of the biggest worries on the Ukrainian side is that if they have that breakthrough, the Russian air force is going to step in massively on that. So Ukraine will also have to position the bulk of its air defenses there, including the fighters, to keep the Russian air force away from there. You have to have all your assets in the right place at the right time. You don't do that overnight, it's a matter of days and weeks to plan that. Right now, fighting is taking place in several places. It is not yet clear where the main attack will come. So you force Russia to constantly make the choice: where am I going to deploy the reserves or deploy myself to counter a breakthrough? How effective will the Russian air force be? And how effective the Ukrainian air defense? These are the crucial issues that will determine how the Ukrainian counteroffensive, which has really taken off in the last few days, will turn out. I think we will know more in a week's time.By the end of today only in one region Ukraine is reported to have advanced 2 km, in some other regions it advanced less than 2km, and in the rest it so far was repelled, with Russians filling up second line defences i the supsected main axis of attack, just in case, and both sides seem to focus on Melitopol.

Last year Ukraine surprised a backwarded Russia with modern and non-Sovjet warfare and drones and all that. But the Russians have learned, they have adapted, and copied the Ukrainians, now turning the success recipe from last year against them. At least they try, we will see if they succeed. But obviously this offensive is not as easy as that in Cherson or Charkiv last year. And I expected that and said that, early.

The lacking numbers and reserves is what really concerns me. Thats what is the basis of all my nagging: they have too little of everything, but must expect higher own losses while attacking with numerical inferiority. That can work for some time - but not longer. If they do not get their objectives secured within that timeframe, then thwe war will turn against them for its remainign time. The west will not resupply and beef them up once again like in the past 8 months. Europeans lack the reserves.

It has become apparent also that they do not seem to use the Leopards in a few concentrated fist, but scattered them across many units, mixing them with T-72s etc. I assume that is due to the drone warfare of nowadays.

It was expected the Bradleys's TOWs would take a juicy bite out of Russian tanks like they did in the Gulf war, but despite the high losses of the Bradleys we heard nothing on their kill score so far.

And what do they do with taken out Wetsenr tanks that are in danger to fall nto Russian ahnds? Germany cannot like the idea of Leopard-2A6s being studied en detail by Russian engineers. And how sensitive is the technolgy in the Bradleys today? Night vision? Digitalization?

Dargo

06-10-23, 02:30 PM

No.

Several Leopards, some say over one dozen, some even say up to 40 Leopard 2A4s had been taken out because Turkish commanders knew sh!t about how to operate MBTs in urban environment and send them in all alone and did not protect them with the needed infantry support that tanks in cities and urban areas desperately need. Also, the A4 is less thick-armoured than later models. Its a tank that arrived when I was still at school.

By the end of today only in one region Ukraine is reported to have advanced 2 km, in some other regions it advanced less than 2km, and in the rest it so far was repelled, with Russians filling up second line defences i the supsected main axis of attack, just in case, and both sides seem to focus on Melitopol.

Last year Ukraine surprised a backwarded Russia with modern and non-Sovjet warfare and drones and all that. But the Russians have learned, they have adapted, and copied the Ukrainians, now turning the success recipe from last year against them. At least they try, we will see if they succeed. But obviously this offensive is not as easy as that in Cherson or Charkiv last year. And I expected that and said that, early.

The lacking numbers and reserves is what really concerns me. Thats what is the basis of all my nagging: they have too little of everything, but must expect higher own losses while attacking with numerical inferiority. That can work for some time - but not longer. If they do not get their objectives secured within that timeframe, then thwe war will turn against them for its remainign time. The west will not resupply and beef them up once again like in the past 8 months. Europeans lack the reserves.

It has become apparent also that they do not seem to use the Leopards in a few concentrated fist, but scattered them across many units, mixing them with T-72s etc. I assume that is due to the drone warfare of nowadays.

It was expected the Bradleys's TOWs would take a juicy bite out of Russian tanks like they did in the Gulf war, but despite the high losses of the Bradleys we heard nothing on their kill score so far.

And what do they do with taken out Wetsenr tanks that are in danger to fall nto Russian ahnds? Germany cannot like the idea of Leopard-2A6s being studied en detail by Russian engineers. And how sensitive is the technolgy in the Bradleys today? Night vision? Digitalization?The Russians have high losses you can not expect it like it was in the Gulf War those personnel were trained for much longer do not expect the same result of last year terrain is different and Russian defense is... yes they are now switched to defense so harder to tackle this was all known by Ukraine it is like the collapse of the dam in the planing of this offensive. Ukraine will find a point to break through, but that takes time the loses now even with western material where expected you can not compare US latest wars they had on all front superiority Ukraine has not, but also the Russian have not. I am only saying time will tell, nobody can predict this. For the support, I bet you the faction backing Ukraine now will not stop this, we will not forget we will not forgive MH-!7.

Skybird

06-10-23, 06:42 PM

Austrian Colonel Markus Reisner spoke on NTV [a German news network] of fierce Russian resistance. "The Ukrainian side is surprised by the Russians' doggedness and flexibility." The Russian forces were able to stop the Ukrainian offensive not only by using artillery and minefields, but also deploy the air force for tactical support, according to Reisner. In addition, he said, the Russians have become more flexible: "They are now deploying very small mobile squads with anti-tank guided missiles with a range of two kilometers on buggies," Reisner said. These small vehicles are barely detectable, he said. "This is a nasty surprise for Ukraine." (One of the things they meanwhile learned from the Ukrainians)

The Russians have high losses you can not expect it like it was in the Gulf War those personnel were trained for much longer do not expect the same result of last year terrain is different and Russian defense is... yes they are now switched to defense so harder to tackle this was all known by Ukraine it is like the collapse of the dam in the planing of this offensive. Ukraine will find a point to break through, but that takes time the loses now even with western material where expected you can not compare US latest wars they had on all front superiority Ukraine has not, but also the Russian have not. I am only saying time will tell, nobody can predict this. For the support, I bet you the faction backing Ukraine now will not stop this, we will not forget we will not forgive MH-!7.

Ukraine expects to get some Abrams, and then some Leopard-1s, if they are lucky nearly 100 Leopard-1. If the current force of Western tanks already gets mauled - I only say if that is the case - then a few Abrams will not make a difference and the Leopard-1s are even much weaker.

European countries cannot give much more than they already did in tanks, because their own stocks and reserves have to be found and dug out of the dust and rubble, so to speak. Lets afce it, Eurppean militaries are in a very shabby state. Ukraine will not get once more the ammounts of what it got so far and is proimsied for later this year - the stuff simply is not there. The political willingness to support Ukraine will decline and public support is in a dive since months already.

Last year at Cherson it most likely was American intervention that stopped the Ukrainains from bombarding the vulnerable retreating Russian troops at those bridges (why would the Ukrainians stop that all by themselves...?), however, south of Charkiv and in the middle between both these regions the Ukrainians had planned to continue another, third offensive vector that usually is not much talked of. It bogged down and got stuck - due to too high losses.

I quote again Colonel Reisner, but his advise is really nothing special, is common sense: "It does us no good to gloss over the situation."Said in late May this year on the chances for a successful offensive.

Everybody saying that supplying Ukraine just as was done so far and doing this endlessly, must answer this single quesation: where should the additional Leopards and Challengers come from...? They do not rain down from the sky nor grow on trees.

So it seems the Ukriane already suffers bigger losses than was anticipated. All I say is that they cannot afford this for long. They better find a way to change this, and quickly so. Lets hope they do.

If I were asked a week ago how I see the chances for the ukrainians in this offensive, I would have said "50:50". Currently I see them at 45:55, trend negative. Nothing is decided yet, but its clear that they must get back on a more successful track. Their offensive has not started well.

edit:
Russia reports this for the 24 hours of Saturday:
"The total losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the mentioned areas within a day amounted to up to 300 soldiers, 9 tanks, including 4 Leopards, and 11 infantry fighting vehicles, including 5 American Bradleys...," Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov said on Saturday. A French Cesar howitzer was also destroyed, he added. [Focus]
Okay, Russian numbers must be taken with utmost care, but if true then 15% of the Bradleys and 10% of the Leopards already are out. After three days. The offensive likely was planned to last weeks, a low number of months. Do the math.
If true, these losses simply are too high.

Skybird

06-11-23, 04:01 AM

In an interview with "NTV", security expert Joachim Weber of the University of Bonn warned against underestimating Putin's army.

"The Russian military is probably better positioned than many here believe," Weber said. The army's big problem, he said, is "primarily combat morale, because many soldiers don't see the point of this war and are also likely to be somewhat demoralized by all the defeats that have been suffered."

Images of Western tank casualties during the counteroffensive were "expected," Weber said, and probably within the bounds of what is expected in such an offensive. The Russians, he said, "are not idiots; they have learned at every stage of the war."

He does not predict easy successes for Ukraine. The front in the south and southeast has been heavily fortified in recent months, he said: "It's all very well prepared, and it's really going to be very difficult to make an operational breakthrough there at any point."

[Focus]

The British intel says the Russian airforce is unusually busy over the front. The first defence line of the Russians has been breached in one area of attack, in the others the attacks got stuck so far.

Jimbuna

06-11-23, 05:00 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lC6g3of7MVo

Jimbuna

06-11-23, 05:02 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fvoD98mhkJY

Jimbuna

06-11-23, 08:50 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GXY1vrNQNAI

Skybird

06-11-23, 09:20 AM

A thankfully sober assessment from General Barrons who was head of the Strategic Command of the British armed forces. Sobering, and I think very realistic.

This text from the NZZ did not translate via Google weblink translator. Thats why I post it in full length, a translated link does not work. The link to the German original text is at the bottom.

Ukraine's attempt to retake occupied Russian territory is extremely difficult, says British General Richard Barrons. As long as the Russians do not give up, Ukraine will not succeed in driving them out of the country. This and other forecasts on the progress of the war.
---------------------

The Russians invaded Ukraine 15 months ago. They currently occupy nearly one-fifth of the country. Increased fighting on the front lines and the destruction of the dam at Kakhovka seem to signal that Ukraine's counteroffensive has begun. Is that true?

Richard Barrons: A counteroffensive is not a football game that starts with kickoff. It's a long process that is planned, practiced, and then forced once you've tested your opponent's defenses. Ukraine is under a lot of pressure to start the offense. It was always a trade-off: You could have intervened earlier to give the Russians less time to dig in. But then Ukraine would also have had less time to train and arm its own army, and the ground would not have been hard enough. In turn, if Ukraine had waited even longer, the Russians' defenses would have become stronger and stronger.

After all the arms deliveries, is Ukraine now well equipped?

It is. NATO has provided weapons to nine brigades of about 5,000 men each. Three brigades are still equipped with Russian equipment. That makes twelve brigades, or about 50,000 troops. In addition, there are 200,000 Ukrainian soldiers in position at the front. NATO has now trained a lot of personnel. But to some extent there is still the old Russian way of commanding in Ukraine's army.

The pressure now on the army and political leadership to succeed must be enormous.

The offensive is a major undertaking that the Ukrainians naturally want to do well. Militarily, it is quite complicated. The front alone is already very long at 900 kilometers. It took nine months to prepare for the counteroffensive. Despite NATO training, Ukraine is not as good as the American army. But it doesn't have to be. It just has to be better than the Russians. The next few weeks will show whether Ukraine is.

Should the West have provided Ukraine with fighter jets?

Training a good pilot of a Russian MiG-23 aircraft on an F-16 takes about four months. But training multiple pilots, who would then also have to use the instruments and weapons, would take nine months to a year and require high-level maintenance on the ground of the aircraft that Ukraine's personnel cannot currently provide. Every hour an F-16 flies requires 16 hours of maintenance on the ground. That's something for after the war.

How do you have to imagine the counteroffensive?

The Russians have about 300,000 troops in the occupied territories and about 200,000 more people helping with logistics. The Russians, of course, know that Ukraine will not attack along the whole line of the front. Ideally, you advance in a kind of surprise attack where you outnumber the enemy three to one - or better seven to one. With twelve brigades, therefore, you can try to break through at two or three points over a width of about 15 to 30 kilometers. But the situation now is completely different from last summer, when the Russians in Kherson and around Kharkiv were surprised by Ukraine's soldiers and voluntarily retreated in a weakened state. As long as the Russians do not give up, Ukraine will not manage to drive all Russians out of the country. The Russians are better equipped now.

What does that mean in concrete terms?

The Russians have set up three lines of defense in 45 places where a Ukrainian advance would make sense - as in the military textbook: strips up to 25 kilometers deep along the front with tank traps and trenches. In the front two trenches are stationed less well-trained recruits, who are supposed to slow Ukraine's advance, but are sacrificed as cannon fodder. They cannot desert or they will be shot. Only in the third line do the experienced, well-equipped parts of the army fight with appropriate firepower. When Ukraine has advanced far enough into Russian-occupied territory, these forces are to attack and wear down Ukraine's brigades from the flanks with a counteroffensive of their own.

So success is harder for Ukraine to achieve than anticipated?

The Russians have learned a lot from the mistakes of the war so far. So they have built up these defensive lines. They position their ammunition depots, their supplies, their artillery, and their command centers out of range of Western precision weapons. They also have more artillery than Ukraine and are now working with drones, reconnaissance and artificial intelligence. No one knows what the morale of Russian soldiers is. But the Russians assume that the West will eventually give up because the war could last too long and become too expensive. Therefore, the Russians' motto is: Grit your teeth and hang on - eventually the enemy will give up, and we will have secured ten or twenty percent of Ukraine.

What role does the destruction of the dam at Kakhovka play in this? The counteroffensive is more likely to take place to the east in the area of Zaporizhia and Donetsk.

Most likely, this was a planned action to complicate Ukraine's counteroffensive. The Russians are not interested in the fact that 60,000 people had to be resettled, that large areas of land were flooded and that part of their own defense line is now under water. They have now secured a flank there. It is hardly possible for Ukraine to cross the Dnipro from Kherson to reach Crimea. But that was not planned anyway. The environmental damage is terrible, but one must not forget that large parts of the country have already been destroyed and a gigantic reconstruction effort is ahead anyway.

What might be the outcome of this counteroffensive?

The morale of the army in Ukraine is extremely high. Nevertheless, we have to be realistic: Examples from the American Civil War and World War I and World War II have shown that it is extremely difficult to break through the front lines when brave fighters are defending the trenches at the front. Nobody knows how well the Russians will fight. But: Ukraine will not defeat the Russians with their counteroffensive. The war will not end this year. There is no question about it.

So what could the Ukrainians achieve this year?

Realistically, territorial gains that the Ukrainians can hopefully hold to show that - with the help of the West - they are capable of fighting successfully. Ideally, Ukrainian brigades would reach the Sea of Azov and break the Russians' land bridge. It will be a succession of battles. The counteroffensive will drag on until Christmas.

This is sobering.

War is about strategic decisions, about logic, but also about emotions and luck - and the opponent has a voice, too. What is important is that Ukraine manages to regain land, holds that land, defends air superiority, and that the Ukrainian people feel that the sons and daughters they are sending to war are not dying in vain. Otherwise, they will give up. The important thing is that the feeling remains that this war can ultimately be won.

Is that so? Can the war be won?

Ukraine wants to drive the Russians out of its entire territory, as was stipulated at independence in 1991. However, it may end up more complicated. Ukraine will eventually decide that it has regained enough land and that more miles of land gains do not justify the bloodshed and high casualties. Some areas, like Crimea, Russia will not give back, and some areas may not even want to be part of Ukraine. If Ukraine were to take them back, it might amount to occupation against the will of the population there. Let's wait and see. It will take a long time.

What is in store for us in the West in the event of such a long war?

So far, the West has supplied Ukraine with weapons that it still had in its own stocks and could do without. But Ukraine will need new weapons in the fall and next year at the latest. The West must first produce them, which costs about $100 billion a year, possibly for three years.

So far, the U.S. has contributed more than half of that sum. What happens when the Americans are no longer willing to do so?

Then it will be Europe's turn, and that raises the question: Whose war are we actually fighting here? If we think this is just about Ukraine losing territory, and the energy costs and other mortgages are too high for us, then we can stop right there and agree a dodgy ceasefire with the Russians. But no Western leader - with the exception of the Hungarians - is currently of this opinion. After all, the point is to defend the values of the West and liberal democracy against dictatorial and autocratic regimes like China and Russia.

What costs would Europe have to bear in the next few years?

If the Americans want to pay, say, only $15 billion a year to equip Ukraine, the Europeans will face a bill of close to $100 billion a year. We will have to boost our weapons production for one to two years. But Europe can afford it. Europe's economic power is about $16.6 trillion, Russia's is about $1.6 trillion. So Europe has the ability to pay that. It's just a question of will.

You think the Europeans have the political will?

There's no doubt that the British are absolutely behind it and will pay their share of the cost. Germany also always says the right thing. It then takes some time to implement, but I have the impression that Germany has grasped the strategic importance of this war and of supporting Ukraine. And even though Germany is now going into a recession, the country knows that it has to act as the economic engine of Europe.

The question is whether governments in Europe can also convince their citizens of the need for continued military aid.

If Ukraine's counteroffensive this year shows that there is hope of winning in the long run, then we must find the will and the money to continue supporting the war. Under no circumstances must we allow Ukraine to suddenly run out of aid from us in the fall. The next NATO summit in Bratislava in mid-July will be about precisely that.

What about Ukraine joining NATO?

If there ends up being a ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia, Ukraine will need security guarantees and will then be integrated into NATO. In return, like any member, it must meet numerous conditions. But then there is nothing to prevent NATO from stationing troops in Ukraine.

Can you imagine a situation in which NATO countries would intervene directly in Ukraine after all?

It's like Bosnia. For a long time people said no, and then we did it after all. As far as Ukraine is concerned, I can only see this happening if the Russians cross the Dnipro River with tanks and advance via Kiev toward Lviv. But we could then also threaten St. Petersburg from Estonia. However, I do not expect such a scenario. The reality is this: No one in Europe wanted this war, no one foresaw that things would develop this way. But this is how things have turned out. So if the war in Ukraine is also about our own security, then we have only one choice: we have to foot the bill, supply the weapons and support Ukraine so that it wins.

[NZZ - Link] (https://magazin.nzz.ch/nzz-am-sonntag/international/kann-der-krieg-in-der-ukraine-gewonnen-werden-general-barrons-ld.1741991)

Jimbuna

06-11-23, 11:50 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ORyx7BOVOKg

mapuc

06-11-23, 02:11 PM

In some areas they seems to have huge success, while in other areas they seems to be in stalemate and in other areas Russia seems to have pushed them back.

That is what I get from reading the news.

Markus

Skybird

06-11-23, 02:55 PM

Huge success? They are dealing with just the first of three defense lines. The third line is the real obstacle, the first two are just meant to delay them, they are weak. Read the orange part in the essay I posted above.

Only a real breakthrough through the full 25 km deep defense zone is of value, just gaining and giving some terrain back and forth means little. Ifd they cannot even crash just through the first two lines, then they have no real chanc eprobaly to ever get throzugh the third.

I do not say they cannot get there. I just want to counter the imo overly optimistic enthusiasm that some internet sources show. This offensive is extremely difficult, the chances are slightly against Ukraine at this stage at least, a success is not certain, and even a success will not end the war. The risk of catastrophic losses is very high.

I agree with those media who write that the outcome of this offensive will have decisive influence on the ultimate outcome of the war.

mapuc

06-11-23, 03:42 PM

Time will tell.

As I said(wrote) that's what I get from reading the news.

I know that I shall take news coming from Ukraine/Russia with a ton of salt.

Edit
Like this news from Twitter
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1667983331927916545
End edit

Markus

Jimbuna

06-12-23, 04:06 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uV8zV12tf7s

Jimbuna

06-12-23, 04:39 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R728uMTZznc

Jimbuna

06-12-23, 05:15 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MIfU1dtM_hc

Skybird

06-12-23, 05:46 AM

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/06/12/europe/ukraine-offensive-battlefield-losses-progress-intl-hnk-ml/index.html

Losses of Leopards and Bradleys are mounting. That there would be losses was to be expected. But at this rate...?

Russian Air Force and ground attack helicopters are called out for latest losses. The Ukrainian air defence over the front and combat areas is not sufficient.

Klitschko and Melnyk demand multiple times as many Leopard-2 tanks from Germany than were delivered. Either they are desperate or they are delirious. The upcoming Leopard-1 must do.

A few sources indicate that the Ukrainian losses in general are much higher than expected.

I find the situation alarming, as far as one can assess it by simple media reports.

Losses of Western tanks were to be expected. But in that short time so many losses? That does not provide the needed breath over the long time.

The Russians seem to dominate the low air space over the front. And this costs the Ukraine dearly. Then there are an awesome lot of minefields. Half of the Leopard2A6 are already out. Several of the A4s as well. 15 Bradleys.

But when Washington announced in January it would supply to Bradleys to Ukraine, CNN military analyst James “Spider” Marks, a retired general, said the Bradley would need the right mix of other abilities, including air support, long-range artillery and incisive intelligence.

“A single piece of equipment like the Bradleys is wonderful, but it needs to be used in conjunction with all those other enablers,” he said at the time.

That mix does not work too well on side of the Ukraine, it seems. The air component is missing, air defence as well, at least AD is too weak. Plus the mined ground.

Jimbuna

06-12-23, 06:01 AM

Not looking good at all.

Skybird

06-12-23, 06:08 AM

Colonel Reisner is quoted in an interview saying that according to the sources available to him the Ukrainians on their three main axis of attack so far made only very minor progress, advancing only 500-2500 m - if they advance at all.

I read the defence zone of the Russian is on avergae 25 km deep and has three main lines, the last being being the by far toughest. If the Ukrainians continue to advance at this loss-distance ratio then - well: do the math.

Reisner: "So far, the Ukrainians have not advanced beyond the area of the battle outposts. These are the first lines of defense, which are still in front of the main defense lines. Behind the battle outposts, there are other fortifications that have been built by Russian sappers in recent months. These consist of various elements such as minefields, armored trenches and dragon's teeth. These obstacles are difficult to overcome because they require special equipment such as mine-clearing tanks. Ukraine has very little of this. Because the special vehicles are difficult to replace, they represent a worthwhile target for the Russians. The minefields are also difficult to overcome. We see this in the actual videos: As soon as the first vehicle hits a mine, the following ones also come to a halt. They then form an easy target for artillery. But mobile anti-tank guided missile squads and the Russian air force also play a major role."

But he also said: "The fact that the start of the offensive will be associated with high losses is not a big surprise. You have to expect this when attacking against a consolidated defense. But the offensive has only been going on for a few days. It may well be that the Ukrainians suddenly make a breakthrough and gain space. There is still a positive mood among Russian war bloggers because of the defensive successes - but that could change at any time."

According to Reisner the Ukrainians have lost at least three batallions already and that the Western-equipped three "elite brigades" are already fully engaged.

Catfish

06-12-23, 07:46 AM

Skybird

06-12-23, 08:00 AM

Russia put the best fighters in the frontlines to prevent the front from breaking (lots of "mobiks" have been running away before), the secondary lines seem to have been filled with less experienced personnel.
My take is Ukraine will gain moment when the first two russian lines are breached. It seems they already are in five different places. Keeping fingers crossed.
I fear its right the other way around. The first line is the weakest, just to delay and pick away at the attackers a bit. Recruits, cannon fodder in those trenches. Same for the second line. The experienced troops are saved for the third line, it is here where the Ukrainians will bite into the toughest Russian fighters. And then Ukrainians already will have suffered then.

Thats how the theory works, and thats how they describe the Russians have set up their defense lines. Right to the textbook example.

Possible that the Ukrianains hold back half of their troops and let the first half wearing down the Russians and getting worn down by the first two defence lines, so that fresh Ukranian troops will be available to crush into the third dfence line then. These two lines are meant to delay and disrupt, not necessarily to stop the attacker.

If it is like this indeed on the ground, if this is how the Russian have set it up, then the Ukrainians currently are in the easiest part of their task ahead. The biggest problems they will face at the very end.

There is also the danger that the deeper they penetrate into a breach, the more likely it becomes that the Russians have reserves left and right of that breach encircling them with an pincing manouver and from behind. That could happen when they reach the third defence line.

They must reduce their losses. Simple math.

I do not say all is lost, hell no. But I say things run much more difficult than was anticipated. "Ein Selbstläufer ist diese Offensive nicht."

Jimbuna

06-12-23, 08:00 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RpbfozUwdGc

Reece

06-12-23, 08:12 AM

I still say Ukraine should be given some tactical nukes as a gift!! :hmmm:

Skybird

06-12-23, 08:44 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RpbfozUwdGc
After all it is not Russian land the Russians destroy this way, but the land of their victim.

Thats why I think the Western calculation for not giving Ukraine long range weapons for so long time, was wrong. It should have been enabled to bring the war onto Russian soil from beginning on. And massively so. The nuclear threat counts as heavy or as light as it does with all the destruction done only inside Ukraine.

The pain must be felt by the aggressor, not by his victim.

Jimbuna

06-12-23, 09:02 AM

^ Agreed :yep:

Skybird

06-12-23, 10:49 AM

https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/gps-guided-bombs-electronic-warfare-russia-improves-weaponry-100004773

Ukrainian military analyst Oleh Zhdanov notes that Moscow has maintained a numerical advantage in troops and weapons, despite any weaknesses.
While Russia has increasingly tapped its Cold-War arsenals, deploying tanks dating to the 1950s to replenish its massive, early losses, such old weapons can still perform well, Zhdanov said.
“It doesn’t matter what tanks they have; they have thousands of them,” Zhdanov told AP, noting Russia put many of them to use as stationary weapons in their defensive lines, including in the Zaporizhzhia region where they proved effective.

Jimbuna

06-12-23, 12:38 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JHrx6FthSPA

Dargo

06-12-23, 01:33 PM

I fear its right the other way around. The first line is the weakest, just to delay and pick away at the attackers a bit. Recruits, cannon fodder in those trenches. Same for the second line. The experienced troops are saved for the third line, it is here where the Ukrainians will bite into the toughest Russian fighters. And then Ukrainians already will have suffered then.

Thats how the theory works, and thats how they describe the Russians have set up their defense lines. Right to the textbook example.

Possible that the Ukrianains hold back half of their troops and let the first half wearing down the Russians and getting worn down by the first two defence lines, so that fresh Ukranian troops will be available to crush into the third dfence line then. These two lines are meant to delay and disrupt, not necessarily to stop the attacker.

If it is like this indeed on the ground, if this is how the Russian have set it up, then the Ukrainians currently are in the easiest part of their task ahead. The biggest problems they will face at the very end.

There is also the danger that the deeper they penetrate into a breach, the more likely it becomes that the Russians have reserves left and right of that breach encircling them with an pincing manouver and from behind. That could happen when they reach the third defence line.

They must reduce their losses. Simple math.

I do not say all is lost, hell no. But I say things run much more difficult than was anticipated. "Ein Selbstläufer ist diese Offensive nicht." There is a big difference between starting an offensive, and the main attack or main effort of the operation. The offensive has clearly started, but not the main attack. When we see two or three brigades focused on a narrow front, it will then be possible to say that the main attack has probably started and where it’s happening. But even then, the Ukrainian General Staff will want to keep the Russians guessing about the location of the main attack for as long as possible. So far, it seems that the Ukrainians are still probing, pressing, looking for vulnerabilities to exploit, reinforcing local tactical success where they find or create it. That's one of the benefits of their adoption of Western-style tactical command and control, where lower-level leaders can make decisions on their own. And some of what we are seeing is intended, perhaps, to confuse the Russians as to where the main attack will eventually be delivered. To show a Leopard on the battlefield at such an early stage was probably, in my view, intended to draw a lot of attention to that area, perhaps as a decoy.

Even so, there are going to be losses the destruction of a single Leopard caused a lot of excitement, but it was actually recovered from the battlefield so that it could be repaired and put back in the fight. That's impressive. It's what the US Army practice, and it’s worth noting the Ukraine Armed force's achievement in doing the same. There is much uncertainty, but of one thing we can be sure, the Ukrainian General Staff has done a superb job protecting information in order to prevent the Russians from knowing what's happening and enabling them to prepare for the attack. The uncertainty in Russian minds may have been one reason for their sabotage of the Kakhovka Dam.

The flooding of low ground and widening of the Dnipro may have delayed Ukraine Armed forces offensive operations in that area for a time. But there are expert voices saying the floodwaters will subside within the next five to seven days, and the ground will rapidly begin to dry in the summer heat. So the likely intended effect hoped for by the Russian side of making crossings of the Dnipro harder, is probably going to be relatively short-lived.

mapuc

06-12-23, 01:55 PM

"The offensive has clearly started, but not the main attack. "

Then I heard right in news at 6.

As mentioned before I truly hope Ukraine manage to divide the Russians in two.

Maybe this could be the reason to why they are moving troops from Kherson to Donbass. Prevent them from being cut off

Markus

Skybird

06-12-23, 02:46 PM

Maybe this could be the reason to why they are moving troops from Kherson to Donbass. Prevent them from being cut off

Markus
Its clear to me that they more benefit than suffer from the flooding. A mechnized assault combined with an amphibious assault is practially not possible in that region anymore, so that frees Russian forces to be shifted to places where they are needed more. And there are so many more dams to blow up... And they all are in Ukraine, not in Russia - wonderful, from a Russian perspective.

ChristopherTarana

06-12-23, 03:19 PM

I think over all this war in Ukraine was started by the Biden Administration's too NATO-centric Policies! Biden said he would support NATO better than Trump! Ukraine is not a NATO Member! My reading of Russian and Ukrainian history suggests closer ties between Russia and Ukraine! :arrgh!: Trump was right when he says if Biden hadn't been elected there would be no war in Ukraine!

Christopher Tarana

Skybird

06-12-23, 03:21 PM

My reading of Russian and Ukrainian history suggests closer ties between Russia and Ukraine!Too bad the ukrainians have red another book than yours.

mapuc

06-12-23, 03:34 PM

August

06-12-23, 05:11 PM

My reading of Russian and Ukrainian history suggests closer ties between Russia and Ukraine!

Closer ties as in that between a rapist and his victim you mean.

The Russians have forcibly conquered Ukraine twice in the past and now they are attempting to do so again.

First it was the corrupt Tsarists, then the dirty Commies, and now the nasty Putinists, and each time given the opportunity the Ukrainians quickly declared their independence from those despots and fought for their freedom. They deserve to win their liberty this time and I for one am darn glad to see that my country is helping them achieve it.

Trump was right when he says if Biden hadn't been elected there would be no war in Ukraine!

No he would have just stood by and let Putin's tanks roll over Ukraine and enslave 50 million people.

Skybird

06-12-23, 06:17 PM

To understand the Ukrainians I think we have go further back then to the year where the Maidan revolution toke place. That's not enough we have to go even further back before 1991 referendum.

What I have learned is that Ukraine since they voted for independens was their wish to be West European a member of EU and later NATO.

If I remember correctly it wasn't so far in time from the People in Kyiv manage to throw the elected leader out of office, until groups in Donbass and Luhansk claimed independens from Ukraine.
Yanukovich told them he would lead Ukaine further to the West, but when he had been elected, he suddenly let his mask fall and tried to shift Ukraine towards russia. That was not what the peope, the vast majority of the total population, had elected him for. He betrayed them. No wonder they kicked him out.

Even the oblasten Donetzk and Luhansk had a minority only of Russia-friendly people durign last known census in Ukraine from early in the 00-years. I posted that data over one year ago, it is somewhere. I remember that the numbers were in the range of 30-35% I think. The only oblast where they really had a majority was Crimea, only here more than 50% of the people wanted a stronger association to Russia, 56% is on my mind, but dont call me out for it. How many of these still want to turn to Russia in all three oblasten now that they have seen what Russia is doing to them as well, can only be estimated. I assume it is less, but the remaining one have become even more detemrined and bitter. Odessa was before the war very Russia-friendly, but the Russian deeds have turned even the pro-Russians very anti-Russian, they said in a docu on Odessa form last year. 90% they said in that film of those who were pro-Russian, now willingly fight against Russia.

It was around this time Russia came to their aid and occupied CrimeaRussia did not come to their help. Russia came to plunder what it had always wanted in the first : Crimea, and Ukraine becoming Russian prey. Clinton told media that Putin once told him he did not accept the treaties and guarantees for Ukraine and that he did not felt bound by them and would not respect them. Clinton said that since then it was clear to him that the Russians sooner or later would come down on Ukraine.

If you want to know why the Ukrainians are so resolute to defend their freedom and independence, you have to go back into the medieval. While in Europe the feudal system prevailed and the farmers/peasants "an die Scholle gebunden waren" (sorry, I fail to find a correct English translation here), and also in Russia the peasants were serfs (Leibeigene), the Ukrainian farmers/peasants were independent and willing to fight in defence, they were so-called "Wehrbauern". This bad habit of not wanting to be enslaved has brought them several times into the pleasure of Russian subjugation attempts - and now also. Its probably also explains why many ukrainians feel a so deep connection to their land, less the political dimension I mean, but the love for the farmland, the landscape, the natural, real ground.

Jimbuna

06-13-23, 03:38 AM

Closer ties as in that between a rapist and his victim you mean.

The Russians have forcibly conquered Ukraine twice in the past and now they are attempting to do so again.

First it was the corrupt Tsarists, then the dirty Commies, and now the nasty Putinists, and each time given the opportunity the Ukrainians quickly declared their independence from those despots and fought for their freedom. They deserve to win their liberty this time and I for one am darn glad to see that my country is helping them achieve it.

No he would have just stood by and let Putin's tanks roll over Ukraine and enslave 50 million people.

Very well put Dave :up:

Jimbuna

06-13-23, 03:57 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eLenKE01l2A

Skybird

06-13-23, 07:29 AM

Russia claims to have captured several Bradleys and Leopards near Saporischschja, and showed a video on Telegram. The claims and film are not verified, its unclear whether the claims are true or the video shows tanks destroyed and shown in old footage.

Study material for engineers in Russia, if true. I hate it. Leopard 2 A6 and A7 are the most modern tank technology.

Jimbuna

06-13-23, 08:05 AM

Unfortunately this is the risk you run when supplying weapons.

Jimbuna

06-13-23, 08:14 AM

Vladimir Putin has reportedly lost a top Russian military leader who has been killed in a missile attack while leading troops in southern Ukraine. Major General Sergei Goryachev, who held the position of chief of staff for the 35th Combined Arms Army is said to have died on June 12 during intense fighting in the "Vremivka Ledge" area in southern Donetsk, where Ukraine has successfully regained control of four villages as part of their counter-offensive.

Russia's Defence Ministry released video footage on Tuesday of what it said were German-made Leopard tanks and U.S.-made Bradley Fighting Vehicles captured by Russian forces in a fierce battle with Ukrainian troops.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/russia-releases-video-of-captured-german-tanks-u-s-fighting-vehicles-in-ukraine/ar-AA1cuhKn?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=7411c05f394c473c839e4537014985a9&ei=16

mapuc

06-13-23, 12:29 PM

When I read some of the comments here I feel sad.
When I read some of the Status on Twitter I feel happy.

I hope it is the latter who is more correctly.

Markus

Jimbuna

06-13-23, 01:13 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ELrJQi65Xs0

Skybird

06-13-23, 02:31 PM

Dargo

06-13-23, 03:50 PM

Latest news detail from the Nord Stream 2 investigations:

According to a joint investigation by ARD, SWR (both German state TV), "Die Zeit" and the Dutch broadcaster NOS, the Dutch military intelligence service MIVD allegedly received information in June from an anonymous source in Ukraine about an "imminent attack" on Nord Stream. It said that the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, General Valery Zaluzhny, was planning an operation against Nord Stream with a small team of divers on a sailboat, to take place in mid-June 2022.

Dutch intelligence allegedly passed the information to the U.S., which contacted Ukraine through the CIA to warn it and advise dit jot to conduct such an attack, the report say.

I start to wonder if the hestations shown by the Germans and Americans to send tanks maybe are a result of knowing about this attack. The pipelines are not an exclusive Russian or German property, but companies from Russia, Germany, the Netherlands and maybe a few more players I do not now of, are invested with 17+ billions for both Nord Stream 1 and 2.

I stay unforgiving on this issue, such an attack on the financial investment of a nation one demands to help oneself, is a total no-go. If this story gets proven to be true, Germany should immediately withdraw from any further aid and assistance. The former ambassador to Germany Melnyk just two or three days ago yelled again at Germany and demanded it to send "several times as many Leopard-2" as German already had sent.Notable is the role of the Dutch MIVD, which thus managed to gather detailed information about the intention to blow up the pipeline at an early stage. What exactly the MIVD's role was remains unclear, as the service does not want to comment. According to insiders, it cannot be otherwise than that Defense Minister Ollongren, and probably also Prime Minister Rutte and Foreign Affairs Minister Hoekstra, were informed by the MIVD about its own findings and informing the Americans. However, intelligence sources do report that there is still no complete certainty and several options are being considered. The MIVD is still investigating the facts.

A small circle at the top of political The Hague has thus been aware of the grave suspicions against Ukraine for a year. The cabinet would not comment on the substance of further questions on the issue. In March, when the possible involvement of Ukraine came up, Minister Ollongren stressed that the support given to that country by the Netherlands and Europe was separate from the question whether Ukraine was involved in blowing up Nord Stream.

Jimbuna

06-14-23, 05:03 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y_FwWB31sFM

Jimbuna

06-14-23, 05:23 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9KhJ8LC56lg

Skybird

06-14-23, 06:36 AM

An overview on what has been delivered and is planned to be delivered in the forseeable future.

https://www-faz-net.translate.goog/aktuell/politik/ausland/ukraine-mit-gegenoffensive-welche-waffen-der-westen-geliefert-hat-18905251.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp

Very contradictory feedback on the losses in Leopards and Bradleys, I am confused. Following some news, they have lost 7-8 Leo2A6 plus severla Leo 2A4, followign other reports or Orxx they have lost or abandoned "only" 5 Leopards alltogether, A6 and A4. Have 15 Bradleys been given up/destroyed? Or 7? or 31?

Fog of war. I was basing so far on the more grim scenarios, but maybe these counts of losses were exagerrated. Hard to say. Or better: impossible to say.

What currently happens I still see as probing and testing. No main drive has taken place anywhere so far, the heavy attack brigades seem to be still not involved. The breaching of Russian defence lines I assume to be not decisive since this is just the first, and weakest defence line that is meant to delay, not to stop at all cost the attacker. Many of the reported freed villages are a single lonely road with a couple of huts and small houses lined up alongside of it, that are no decisive gains or strategically relevant objectives. The Russians say from their POV they all lay in a grey zone between both sides' frontlines anyway, Niemandsland. Reports say that where the Ukrainians slammed into Russian defences, the fights were heavy and bitter, and Ukrainian losses seem to be higher than expected and advances not as fast as wanted, Russian resistence often is stiffer than expected. Well, the Russians had 9 months to dug themselves in. Their biggest enemy is low ammo and low morale. The deeper the ukrainians push into the defence zone of the Russians, the heavier and more competent the Russian resistence will become. They have their best and most experienced fighters in the third line, not in the first two, most analysts say. The first two lines are manned with cannon fodder only, to delay the advance and to cause some losses on the ukrainians before dying themselves.

The "euphory" that there was in the beginning of the war, that the ukrainian army had adapted in the time before the war to Westenr military dogmatic standards, combined arms concepts and getting rid of Sovjet training doctrine, has become much more silent now. Most of the troops that by leadership doctrine were "Westernized" by Salushnyi in the 1-2 years befor the war broke out, have been killed or wounded, are not participating in the war anymore, and the new troops trained in the West melt into a much bigger army of now again more Sovjet-run command-drill, so that now more Ukrainian army units seem to be led according to Sovjet training again than in the early stage of the war. It remains to be seen to what degree this "re-sovjetization" negatively affects the needed combined arms warfare the Ukrainians need to conduct if they want to really benefit from the Western material, or if the minority of Western-trained troops can elevate the general level of quality of the whole army. The good news is that the Russians struggle with this combined arms concept, too. Also, it seems the vast majority of Western-trained troops are now in the brigades set up for the attack, which are about 50,000 in total - they were not put into the 200,000 troops sitting in the trenches along the front and just holding it.

Skybird

06-14-23, 08:11 AM

The chief of Ukrainian ground forces:

https://www.economist.com/the-econom...-ground-forces (https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2023/06/08/who-is-oleksandr-syrsky-the-head-of-ukraines-ground-forces)

Skybird

06-14-23, 08:12 AM

Sometimes the Russians even outdo themselves in lying.

https://www-fr-de.translate.goog/pol..._x_tr_pto=wapp (https://www-fr-de.translate.goog/politik/ukraine-news-krieg-selenskyj-gesundheit-zustand-russland-putin-absetzung-nachfolger-westen-92341219.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp)

Jimbuna

06-14-23, 08:37 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s9X4dYRcxSU

Jimbuna

06-14-23, 08:41 AM

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/TidhdiceGb4

:har:

Jimbuna

06-14-23, 12:04 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mW78w2PUNkE

mapuc

06-14-23, 01:10 PM

< Hopefully it's not true.

Markus

Dargo

06-14-23, 01:50 PM

< Hopefully it's not true.

MarkusRussia that cannot defeat an army vastly smaller than them gone go to war with NATO :har::har::har: even if Ukraine counteroffensive does not go according to plan Ukraine will not surrender it already has the promised supplies for next year and are the main threat to Russia it can not deploy any more troops to open a second front those 2 losers are always threatening with ... or ... but they always fail.

Catfish

06-14-23, 01:58 PM

I almost hope Russia will do this stunt, maybe the russians realize what kind of idiot they have as a "president". Putin knows he will not live forever, i guess he will try to extend the war as long as possible. If this means taking over Belarus (what about Lukashenko b.t.w.?) and attack Poland he may try this, he does not want an end of the war while he's alive.

Dargo

06-14-23, 03:33 PM

Skybird

06-15-23, 04:58 AM

Those declared dead live longer.

https://www-focus-de.translate.goog/politik/experten/gastbeitrag-von-gabor-steingart-russland-ist-nicht-so-verletzbar-wie-der-westen-geglaubt-hat_id_196458517.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp (https://www-focus-de.translate.goog/politik/experten/gastbeitrag-von-gabor-steingart-russland-ist-nicht-so-verletzbar-wie-der-westen-geglaubt-hat_id_196458517.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp)

Russia's economy is on the brink of collapse. The ruble collapses. Putin is terminally ill, he has been dead for months. The military has no more rockets. The Russians are running out of ammunition. We will punish Russia. The elites rebel. Putin can't hold out much longer. The military is stupid as bean straw. The Russians can't fight at all. They still make the same mistakes as in the beginning.

Von wegen.

The Ukrainians will never be able to throw the Russians out of their country by force and struggle. These are number-based realities. Their only chance is to wear out the Russian army in general so that it will erode internally of its own accord, like a structure whose steel beams have rusted so that they break. But kick out the Russians through a series of major battles? I'm sorry, I don't see that, not even hinted at. And Putin only lives as long as the war goes on. So he has no interest in peace, he has a vital interest in the war continuing under all circumstances - costs and progress are unimportant. And if that were no longer theoretically possible in Ukraine, it would be through escalation against another country. Putin needs the war. If there is no war, he is dead.

So to all peace activists: have fun negotiating. And even if your hope lived only until the beginning of the negotiations, it still has lived. Toll!

Jimbuna

06-15-23, 05:41 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ewlLjw1sTBE

Jimbuna

06-15-23, 06:03 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XlFYdn1bbXo

Skybird

06-15-23, 06:38 AM

Two-thirds of the forces deployed for the offensive are still being held back, probably for the moment when the current numerous probing raids believe they have found a weakness in the Russian lines, which the Ukrians then decide to exploit.

Nevertheless the situation of the Ukrainians is worse than is usually portrayed in the reports of the media, for the war extends over more domains than just that of direct military combat. Economic data is devastating - while Russia's have suffered much less than hoped. And the infrastructure needed to keep logistical flow alive gets systematically wiped out by Russia: bloackde at sea, and bombing of the all important railway grid.

https://www-focus-de.translate.goog/politik/ausland/ukraine-krise/warum-die-ukraine-in-einem-deutlich-schlechteren-zustand-ist-als-viele-glauben_id_100295225.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp

Jimbuna

06-15-23, 09:11 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7IaBMew-t38

Dargo

06-15-23, 11:31 AM

The Kakhovka reservoir is almost empty, can Ukrainian tanks now drive across?
On clear days, from the Ukrainian city of Nikopol, you can see the nuclear power plant in Zaporizhia, 10 kilometers across. But since the reservoir emptied, the nuclear power plant occupied by the Russians seems even closer: what used to be a mighty reservoir is now a river only 400 meters wide and surrounded by kilometers of marshy land, according to an analysis of satellite images by Planet. The dam breach caused the water level to drop at lightning speed from around 17 meters to less than 12 meters in the first few days. Since then, the water level has dropped much further, satellite images show.

A crossing of the Dnipro near the flooded town of Kherson has not been feasible since the dam breach last Tuesday, military analysts said. A crossing upstream near the reservoir looks a lot easier from the air. 'But if you're standing on the shore as a soldier, it's a lot harder,' says former commander of the Dutch land forces Mart de Kruif. Walking across that area as a soldier is practically impossible, says De Kruif. 'Then you are a glorified mudflat runner as a Ukrainian soldier. That is physically very tough with all the equipment.' The soggy ground makes that scenario unrealistic. 'It has to harden first, and that will take some time.' The Leopard tanks the Ukrainian army has can handle some swampy terrain with their tracks. 'They can wade through water,' says De Kruif. 'But that doesn't make much sense if the ground has no support. That area is now a deep layer of mud and clay. You would have to investigate whether you can cross that with armored vehicles.'

Even if the Ukrainians want to build a bridge, they soon run into practical problems. 'The ground almost certainly has too little support for that, while at the same time you make yourself hugely vulnerable to air attacks.' In all scenarios, the Ukrainian army has to reckon with coming under fire from the Russian army, which has entrenched itself near the nuclear power plant. 50 kilometers to the north, Ukraine does have bridges over the Dnipro, notes De Kruif. 'It makes much more sense to use those.' That the Russians' defenses might be weaker at the deflated reservoir is not a decisive reason for a Ukrainian crossing for De Kruif. 'The offensive has long been planned, you're not going to adjust that for such a risky operation.' https://www.volkskrant.nl/nieuws-achtergrond/het-kachovka-stuwmeer-is-nagenoeg-leeg-kunnen-de-oekraiense-tanks-nu-naar-de-overkant-rijden~b33110af/

Exocet25fr

06-15-23, 11:47 AM

Don't underestimate russians, we could have bad surprises!. It was said that they had no more air force.........:06:

Dargo

06-15-23, 11:52 AM

Don't underestimate russians, we could have bad surprises!. It was said that they had no more air force.........:06:I fear the Russian air force they are bringing them closer to the front, let's hope the comms between land and air is still FUBAR as in the past or that they lack trained pilots. Ukraine needs a good anti air in this counteroffensive, else this will fail.

Dargo

06-15-23, 12:13 PM

Hundreds of old Merkava tanks on the way to Europe: all the details about the historic deal
years after they entered service in the IDF, hundreds of Merkava tanks of the 2nd and 3rd marks are expected to be sold to two foreign countries, including for the first time to a European country. The tanks went out of use in recent years, remaining in warehouses - but after the start of the war in Ukraine and the renewed demand for armored war vehicles, they were tested and found to be suitable enough to sell One of the Israeli symbols is being exported to Europe for the first time: 40 years after they entered service in the IDF, old Merkava tanks manufactured in Israel are expected to be sold soon to two foreign armies, reach Europe, and continue to serve despite their advanced age. The US Department of Defense should soon approve to Israel the sale of hundreds of Merkava Mark 2 and 3 tanks that were manufactured in Israel in the 1980s and 1990s and have been decommissioned in recent years to two foreign countries, one of them in Europe, against the background of the war in Ukraine and the refinement to which classic armored war vehicles are being re-acquired. This is the first time that Merkava tanks will be sold to a European country.

The Ministry of Defense does not specify the names of the two countries that agreed on the purchase of more than 200 used Israeli tanks in light of the sensitivity of the process, but the deal is on the verge of a final signature and is expected to be completed relatively immediately, within about three months. Officials at the Ministry of Defense told Ynet that since certain mechanical parts in these tanks are American-made, especially the engine, approval from the Ministry of Defense in Washington is required to carry out the transaction. According to estimates, the scope of the deal will reach several tens of millions of dollars for all the tanks, an amount that will enter the state coffers and will probably be transferred directly to the defense establishment. This is an amount that is considered negligible in relation to the purchase of new western tanks. For the sake of proportion, about a decade ago, the Ministry of Defense offered a foreign army to purchase a new Mark 4 Merkava tank, from the production line, for approximately four million dollars per tank.

Additional details indicate that the two transactions will be split - one will include the older Merkava 2 tanks and the other the Merkava Mark 3 that entered service in the nineties and served mainly the fighters of the 188th Brigade. In recent years these tanks have fallen out of use and today all 3 regular armored brigades - 401, 188 and 7th Brigade - equipped with advanced Merkava Mark 4 tanks with the active defense system against anti-tank missiles, of the wind jacket type and computerized command and control systems. Some of the regular tanks, especially those with less experience, were transferred to reserve brigades, including the 10th (Harel) brigade instead of the tanks. However, more than 200 orphaned tanks remain in the IDF's maintenance depots. At first, the defense establishment was pessimistic about the possibility of a foreign army purchasing them, and the possibility of selling them to iron recycling contractors was considered, but not before they were scrapped. But the counter-armaments will strengthen them well and at the same time the war between Russia and Ukraine broke out last year, which changed the security needs of European countries. Initial interest in used tanks began already in the middle of last year and the Ministry of Defense rushed to check the condition of the old tanks, and found that they were serviceable enough to be sold.

Security officials explained that "producing a tank as an off-the-shelf product is a complex and long process that can take two years and cost a fortune, in our time there are tanks that are qualified, with receipts, for operation tomorrow morning, in open and built-up areas." The sources also said that "Europe is in an arms race that has not been the same since World War II." For example, the German Ministry of Defense tripled its defense budget because of the tensions with Russia, while Sweden and Finland join NATO, and only yesterday the Israeli Ministry of Defense reported an all-time record in the sale of Israeli weapons to the world - approximately 12.5 billion dollars in the past year.

It should be noted that in the IDF's warehouses there are still hundreds of M-113 APCs that are also going out of use, in light of the introduction of the NMR and Eitan APCs in recent years, mainly to the regular brigades. For these APCs, which are not considered protected from anti-tank fire, there is still no foreign demand. At the same time, in recent years, Israel has succeeded in promoting the sale of decommissioned Air Force F-16 aircraft to the Croatian army. The security officials stated that "it is difficult to sell military surpluses, and we are trying to be attractive and extend their lives as much as possible." The first chariot tanks, the product of the development of Major General Israel Tal (Telik) and the engineer Israel Tilan, were produced in Israel in the late 1970s, and their first version, the Mark 1, was integrated into operational activity already in the First Lebanon War, during Operation Peace of the Galilee. Immediately after that, the Ministry of Defense developed the follow-up version, Mark 2, with improvements that allowed warfare even in built-up areas, and with additions for passive protection. Regular and reserve armored personnel carriers recorded thousands of successful battles in chariot tanks in all recent Israeli systems, in the security zone in Lebanon, in Operation Protective Wall, in the Second Lebanon War, in operations in the Gaza Strip before and after disengagement, as well as in ongoing security in the various sectors. https://www-ynet-co-il.translate.goog/news/article/skugq500p2?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp&_x_tr_hist=true

Jimbuna

06-15-23, 12:31 PM

Let us hope the Ukrainians are as skilful and effective in their use as the Israelis were.

Skybird

06-15-23, 02:42 PM

Don't underestimate russians, we could have bad surprises!. It was said that they had no more air force.........:06:
Thy were not able to reach total air superiority, but planes they have enough. They still have enormous numbers of interceptors and CAS aircraft they could throw in, if they want, but the main share of air-based ground attacks they launch on the Ukrainian spearheads are from drones (both artillery observers and kamikaze drones) and also are done by helicopter gunships like the Mi-28 and Ka-52 that are, like the American Apache, designed for and specialise in long distance anti tank warfare from up to 6-8 km away. Thats what gives the Ukrainians currently super big headaches.

In the Syrian war, the Ka-52 showed to be more mature, reliable and capable type. Russia has minimum 130 of these and planned to double this number until in the second half of this decade. Russia had at the beginning of the war around 120-140 Mi-28, a dozen of which got lost in the war so far.

Skybird

06-15-23, 02:50 PM

Hundreds of old Merkava tanks on the way to Europe: all the details about the historic deal

years after they entered service in the IDF, hundreds of Merkava tanks of the 2nd and 3rd marks are expected to be sold to two foreign countries,

(...)

Did not heard this before. Good if the Merkavas end up in Ukraine, thats some very original kit and by desgn and idea maybe is exactly what they need: a heavy battle tank that can transport troops (though not as many as APCs, and only when deloading ammo first). Nobody else has something like that, AFAIK.

The latest version, IV, is one of the the heaviest tanks wordwide, and I think no toher tnaks leaves the assembly line with such default weight.

One disadvantage for the Ukrainians: Merkavas are not capable to cross deeper rivers like the Leopard can. In the desert the Israelis had no demand for that capability.

Jimbuna

06-16-23, 05:05 AM

Drones and missiles have been launched against Kyiv just as African leaders arrive in Ukraine on a peace mission.

Ukraine's defence minister says the missiles are a "message to Africa" showing that Putin wants "more war"

The seven African leaders, from countries including South Africa and Egypt, will meet President Volodymyr Zelensky in Kyiv, before heading to Russia tomorrow.

The group has agreed to engage with Zelensky and Putin on a ceasefire and lasting peace.

But the initiative comes just as Kyiv launches its counter-offensive against the Russian invasion and fighting intensifies.

Meanwhile, a BBC investigation has found that at least 25,000 Russian soldiers have been killed in Ukraine - four times the official figure released by Moscow.

Jimbuna

06-16-23, 05:25 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rP1Olg0jLSA

Jimbuna

06-16-23, 09:42 AM

Putin humiliated by world leaders who boycott Russia's economic forum as ruble tumbles

Vladimir Putin's highly anticipated annual economic forum witnessed a notable absence of world leaders, signalling the increasing isolation of Russia's economy due to its ongoing conflict with Ukraine.

Previously renowned for attracting prominent figures like French President Emmanuel Macron and former German Chancellor Angela Merkel, this year's event failed to secure the presence of such influential figures on Wednesday (June 14).

According to Bloomberg reports, Western politicians were notably scarce, and even countries that were once part of the Soviet Union chose to skip the event entirely.

Chinese officials held the spotlight at the forum, with the presence of Zhang Hanhui, China's ambassador to Moscow, and Zhou Liqun, the chairman of the Union of Chinese Entrepreneurs in Russia, drawing attention.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/putin-humiliated-by-world-leaders-who-boycott-russia-s-economic-forum-as-ruble-tumbles/ar-AA1cAYmp?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=b2c44b31a7dc4e5d8a57d1075575b84f&ei=9

Dargo

06-16-23, 01:09 PM

How indispensable is Wagner boss Prigozhin? 'They still need him because things are not looking good for the Russian army'
Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin is once again kicking the Kremlin's shins as he refuses to sign a contract with the Russian defense ministry. He is also threatening to leave Ukraine for good. What does this mean for the situation on the battlefield and the political balance of power in Russia?

After Prigozhin made it clear last week that his Wagner fighters would not sign any contracts and that he does not want to cooperate with Sergei Shoygoe, Russia's defense minister, he is once again putting the Kremlin in a difficult position. Shoygoe hopes to gain more oversight and control over the dozens of militias fighting for Russia in Ukraine by getting all groups to sign a government contract. It is also a support for the Russian army, which could use all the help it can get in the fight against Ukraine. Prigozhin's refusal comes on top of the fierce criticism he has been spewing about the Russian military establishment for months. The question is what Moscow should do with enfant terrible Prigozhin. After all, how indispensable is Wagner really in Ukraine?

"To begin with, it is a right decision that Russia wants to bring together all the volunteer militias through a government contract," says Ukrainian military expert Oleksander Kovalenko on the phone from his home in Odessa. "Of all those militias, Wagner is the strongest and most independent one, although of course they depend on their weapons and ammunition from Russia."

Currently, Prigozhin himself is in Russia and the Wagner group is taking virtually no action in Ukraine. "When Prigozhin earlier threatened to leave Bakhmut with his Wagner fighters, he presented the Russian army with a big problem," Kovalenko continued. "For the Russians on the flanks of Bakhmut had great difficulty in holding their position. The Ministry of Defense also had to drum up four thousand troops to keep the city itself under control. That problem has since been solved by deploying soldiers from the Russian-occupied areas of Luhansk and Donetsk and from the 31st naval brigade. So at the moment, Russia does not need Wagner that badly in Ukraine, so it was the right timing to come up with a contract."

Conversely, Prigozhin does not really need it to stay in Ukraine either. The Wagner Group operates for Russia in many other countries such as Syria, Libya, Mali and other African countries. That gives the Wagner boss power in a way, because if he removes his troops from other countries, Russia loses a foothold there. Which means he can put considerable pressure on Shoygoe. On the other hand, Prigozhin hopes that a compromise can be reached with the Russian parliament and Putin so that his fighters have more social rights and are better protected. "Suppose he reaches a compromise and sends his men to the gaps in the front, they will become cannon fodder and there will be many deaths," Kovalenko thinks. "And Prigozhin will use that against the defense ministry by pointing out that this is the consequence of the signed contract. But chances are he will not sign anything."

Meanwhile, Prigozhin is on a 'promotional tour' in Russia, where he continues to criticize the Russian military system. His popularity is rising; all indications are that he wants to assert himself politically. "He is distancing himself from the sons and daughters of the oligarchs and ministers and officials friendly to Putin," says Russia expert and journalist Bruno Beeckman, who himself lived in Moscow for 10 years. "He has not yet been taken to task for this; for now, the Kremlin allows it. But the fact is that Prigozhin is increasingly becoming Putin's political rival. Hence, Putin's insistence on that contract, if all militias fall under the Kremlin umbrella and Wagner achieves success again, Putin can take credit for that instead of having to leave it to a political rival." On Russian state television, the Wagner boss is almost never shown, Beeckman knows. "He is popular because of Telegram, and opinion polls show that a lot of people look up to him because of his organizational talent and his guts." The Wagner leader would "rest" until 5 August anyway, he has revealed. Whether he will return to Ukraine after that is not certain, he added. "He did offer help in the Belgorod region," Beeckman said. "Not only does it show that the Russians are unable to defend their own subjects there, they also leave them to their own devices. The town of Shebekino of 40,000 inhabitants has to sort it out. Should Wagner be able to bring order there, that will be something for Putin to take advantage of in the upcoming election campaign."

That there are quiet thoughts of a successor to Putin has been known for some time. Russia Today's Margarita Simonyan suddenly called for an end to the war in Ukraine last week. She received masses of criticism, but it does say something about what is going on in Russia today. The fear of the Ukrainian counter-offensive is great, let alone that Russia will soon have to admit a final defeat. But we are still (far) from that point. To what extent Russia can do without the Wagner Group in Ukraine may already be evident this summer. "If he is a real threat to Putin politically, there is a good chance he will suddenly disappear from the face of the earth," Kovalenko thinks. "Also, they may ban him from Ukraine. But I suspect it won't come to that. They still need Prigozhin, because things are not looking good for the Russian army." https://www.demorgen.be/oorlog-in-oekraine/hoe-onmisbaar-is-wagner-baas-prigozjin-ze-hebben-hem-nog-nodig-want-het-ziet-er-niet-goed-uit-voor-het-russische-leger~b65b0bbe/

Dargo

06-16-23, 01:15 PM

Anti-tank missiles, night attacks and minefields: this is how Russians and Ukrainians fight each other
The Russians face the task of taking out as much heavy equipment as possible during the Ukrainian offensive. Conversely, the Ukrainians must deploy weapons to outwit the Russians. Some weapons and military equipment listed that are currently crucial in the offensive. Since tanks and armored vehicles play a crucial role in the offensive that Kyiv has launched, it is important for the Russian army to destroy as much of this heavy military equipment early as possible. In particular, the Russians are now deploying many anti-tank missiles, fired from the air, to bring Ukrainian operations to a halt. 'The enemy is doing everything possible to maintain their positions,' State Defense Minister Hana Maljar reported on Telegram. 'During the offensive, our troops encounter continuous minefields, which are combined with anti-tank trenches. There are constant counterattacks on armored vehicles and massive deployment of anti-tank missiles and kamikaze drones.' One such Russian anti-tank missile is the advanced Lmur, fired by the Mi-28 and Ka-52 combat helicopters. The Russian military possesses a selection of anti-tank missiles, the Lmur being one of the latest. At 15 kilometers, this missile has a longer range than other anti-tank missiles launched from helicopters. Exactly a year ago, videos appeared that the Russians had deployed the missile for the first time. At the time, however, the targets were different, such as warehouses and command centers. The footage, taken by the missile's viewfinder, then showed the Lmur racing towards its target and striking at lightning speed. Moscow is now expected to use the missile more to take out Western tanks, the Leopard and Challenger, from the air. However, it is unknown whether the Russians, hit hard by international sanctions, have enough Lmur missiles in their arsenal to stop the Ukrainian tank force.

The Ukrainian army has received thousands of night vision systems, mostly from the US, that enable soldiers to see at night. Ukrainian soldiers involved in the offensive are now exploiting this advantage. With the equipment, which is mounted in front of the soldier's eyes, the soldiers can approach Russian units relatively unseen. The Russians, in turn, do hear Ukrainian tanks and armored vehicles advancing, but have great difficulty targeting them with directed fire, such as with artillery. Unlike the US military, the Russian armed forces lag behind when it comes to spreading night vision systems among soldiers. Only special units, such as the commandos, now make widespread use of them. In large part, this is due to the high cost. One set, such as the US L3 Harris, costs around 38 thousand euros. Various reports indicate that the Ukrainians have been turning to night attacks since the offensive began, including on the front in the Zaporizhzhia region. A Russian military blogger reported that the Ukrainian military has "excellent" night vision equipment. According to an occupation official in Zaporizhzhia, Vladimir Rogov, Ukrainian units can use Western tanks and armored fighting vehicles more effectively because they are able to go on the offensive at night.

Ukrainian units are now getting a taste of their own medicine. Since the US started delivering thousands of Raam grenades last autumn, the Ukrainians have been bombarding the Russians with the weapon that can lay a minefield from a long distance. Using their howitzers, they fired the Raam, which is filled with nine anti-tank mines, to thwart attacks by Russian armored units. In a short time, this can render an area impassable. The Russian army now uses their own version, the Zemledeliye, to thwart the advance of Leopard tanks and Bradley combat vehicles. The Zemledeliye is a new weapon system and it has hardly been deployed in Ukraine so far. Noted Russian war journalist Alexander Kots, who does not hide his support for the army, published a video on Telegram on Sunday of the Zemledeliye in action. It shows how missiles - filled with anti-tank mines or mines aimed at military personnel - are fired at Ukrainian positions in short bursts. 'Wow!', said Kots. 'For the first time in 15 months, I see the use of the Zemledeliye. Impressive!' On Wednesday, a Zemledeliye was seen in action in the Donetsk region. One salvo from the multiple missile system would be enough to turn an area the size of several football fields into a minefield up to 15 kilometers away. If the Russians start using the Zemledeliye on a larger scale, the Ukrainians will have to start watching out. In March, Kyiv reportedly did manage to destroy a Zemledeliye with a drone for the first time.

https://www.volkskrant.nl/nieuws-achtergrond/antitankraketten-nachtaanvallen-en-mijnenvelden-zo-bevechten-russen-en-oekrainers-elkaar~b387b3d5/

Catfish

06-16-23, 01:22 PM

Ukraine is 'finding Russia's vulnerabilities' (Maj. Gen. Rupert Jones)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VLngNKTbb_I

Jimbuna

06-17-23, 04:23 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fjhRbPU8dBI

Jimbuna

06-17-23, 05:19 AM

WARNING: SOME ADULT CONTENT.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=awyiYoo2JbA

Jimbuna

06-17-23, 05:49 AM

The Russian despot today confirmed that the first tactical nuclear weapons had arrived in Belarus stating they would only be used if Russia's territory or state was threatened.

Skybird

06-17-23, 06:36 AM

Ukraine is bringing forward mine-clearing equipment in large numbers (not just tanks with mine shovels mounted on their bows) in some key front sections. This could indicate that they have chosen their attack points for an actual breakthrough attempt and that a new phase of the offensive is imminent.

I read that Russian gunships are now firing new ATGMs with a range of 15-16 km. Russian gunships have air superiority in the frontline areas, the Urkaine apparently does not have the means to hold them down. Very bad news. That could cost dearly. Because I assume that Russian helicopters are also equipped with night-vision devices, so that they can also attack the Ukrainians during their preferred night operations.

A few reports on that the Ukraine already feels ammunition shortages. Not verified.

Skybird

06-17-23, 06:39 AM

The Russian despot today confirmed that the first tactical nuclear weapons had arrived in Belarus stating they would only be used if Russia's territory or state was threatened.
Maybe we should send him a telegram that the first cruise missiles equipped with nuclear warheads have been programmed to the coordinates of his secret loo.

Skybird

06-17-23, 07:04 AM

Colonel Reisner's latest assessment of the current situation does not sound optimistic. The Russian have now air superiority. The Russians now conduct mobile warfare, what nobody expected them to be capable of. The Russians have learned and adapted.

https://www-t--online-de.translate.goog/nachrichten/ukraine/id_100192192/gegenoffensive-der-ukraine-experte-das-haben-die-russen-intelligent-gemacht-.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp&_x_tr_hist=true

Jimbuna

06-17-23, 07:31 AM

"With the start of Ukrainian counteroffensive operations in the south of Ukraine, Russia has strengthened its attack helicopter forces in the region. The pictures show that more than 20 additional Russian helicopters have been transferred to the Berdyansk airport, which is approximately 100 km behind the front line," the department said.

British intelligence suggests that thanks to this, Russia gained a temporary advantage in the south of Ukraine.

This is stated in a British intelligence report published by the Ministry of Defence of the United Kingdom, Source: https://censor.net/en/n3425265

Exocet25fr

06-17-23, 07:41 AM

Yes!, many upgraded russian Gator (Ka-52) choppers are involved in the battlefield again now...!

Jimbuna

06-17-23, 07:44 AM

Total combat losses of Russian Federation since beginning of war - about 219,170 people (+670 per day), 302 helicopters, 3,977 tanks, 3,834 artillery systems, 7,706 armored vehicles. INFOGRAPHICS

As noted, the total combat losses of the enemy from 24.02.22 to 17.06.23 are approximately:

personnel - about 219170 (+670) people were liquidated,

tanks - 3977 (+12) units,

armoured combat vehicles - 7706 (+23) units,

artillery systems - 3834 (+22) units,

MLRS - 609 (+3) units,

air defence systems - 364 (+0) units,

aircraft - 314 (+0) units,

helicopters - 302 (+1) units,

UAVs of the operational and tactical level - 3364 (+7),

cruise missiles - 1211 (+12),

ships/boats - 18 (+0) units,

automotive equipment and tankers - 6557 (+38) units,

special equipment - 520 (+1). Source: https://censor.net/en/n3425255

Dargo

06-17-23, 07:48 AM

Yes!, many upgraded russian Gator (Ka-52) choppers are involved in the battlefield again now...!Probably just coincidence that the US just handed Ukraine a huge shipment of stingers in recent arms shipment.

Skybird

06-17-23, 08:17 AM

Probably just coincidence that the US just handed Ukraine a huge shipment of stingers in recent arms shipment.
The Stinger's range is effectively less than 5 km, that is not sufficient to keep away Gunships with 8 or even 15km firing range. You catch the occasional cheeky helicopter jockey who dares to stick his nose too far out. You don't scare away the helicopter lurking cautiously in the back spaces and tracks and fires from several kilometers beyond the Stinger's range. Further, the gunship gets recce support from drones, so finds it easier to find targets.

Thats why they call it Russian air superiority now.

The maximum effective range of the Gepard's cannons is 5000m and 3500 m altitude (Wikipedia). So they do not add to and beyond the Stinger'S capability. They are just very fast in reacting, and extremely precise.

Add to this the massive electronic signal suppression that was expected from the Russians from beginning on, but that they did not use in the first months of the war at all. They meanhwile seem to have remembered that they have this ability.

mapuc

06-17-23, 11:34 AM

“And if they are based abroad, but used in fighting we’ll see how to hit them, and where we can hit those means that are used against us in fighting,” Putin said.

“This is a serious danger of further drawing NATO into this military conflict,” he added.

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/06/17/europe/nato-danger-ukraine-war-putin-intl-hnk/index.html

Markus

Jimbuna

06-17-23, 12:20 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PBmuiuYscUk

Dargo

06-17-23, 02:10 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fjhRbPU8dBIThe main defense line, still 15–20 km from Ukrainian positions, has properly dug trenches and concrete-reinforced firing posts, tank obstacles, ground-laid cable to coordinate artillery strikes, and even more mines. Behind that are the reserve fighting positions of the third defense line. The fighting will likely get tougher. As Ukrainian forces penetrate deeper into the defenses, they will come into range of more Russian artillery firing posts. Moreover, their own artillery will be able to deliver fewer counterbattery missions, and the Ukrainian lines of advance will become more predictable, as they must follow the breaches identified in the minefields. As Ukrainian troops push forwards, they will also be covered by fewer air defenses, and will likely come under greater attack by the Russian Aerospace Forces and aviation. Success is binary, not linear. The line is either broken or it is not, and Kyiv must shape the battlefield to maximize the probability of a breach

Aktungbby

06-17-23, 03:48 PM

Skybird

06-17-23, 04:30 PM

Ukrainian losses:
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-ukrainian.html

Russian losses:
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

On a sidenote, if you scroll down those lists quickly, you get suddenly a visual impression of the enormous dimension of this conflict. Mind you, those lists do not represent existing units, but destroyed units.

Catfish

06-17-23, 05:26 PM

Girkin to Putin

“Girkin was quite prolific today and while I don't see the need to translate his mini-essay dedicated to how Putin is completely clueless regarding what's happening at the front, I feel the last 2 paragraphs are worth to be noted:

After your words, which I quoted, I once again became convinced that our affairs are bad if the Supreme Commander-in-Chief is absolutely not in control of the situation at the front. Another Supreme Commander-in-Chief - Joseph Vissarionovich Stalin came to mind. The Chief of the General Staff, General Antonov, personally reported to him daily on the situation on the the Great Patriotic War fronts with the obligatory display of it on the maps. Stalin knew this situation by heart.

I don't want to give you advice because it's obviously useless, but try to get a detailed map of the fighting in Ukraine on your office wall, where all the changes in the course of the fighting would be adjusted daily. It is advisable that you should be recording these changes personally after you hear the daily report from the current Chief of the General Staff, General Gerasimov, or even Minister of Defense Shoigu. Maybe then you will not be disgraced in front of the whole world by your ignorance of the situation at the front?”

https://twitter.com/NatalkaKyiv/status/1668766152586043393?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5 Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1668766152586043393%7Ctwgr% 5Eba4f6df2db73bda538d64a3698086020e8cc1f45%7Ctwcon %5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fs9e.github.io%2Fiframe%2Ftwi tter.min.html1668766152586043393

Funny how the whole world gives advice to VladPutin; i'd say better stop it and let him make his mistakes.

Jimbuna

06-18-23, 04:17 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CPxtelqUInk

mapuc

06-18-23, 06:12 AM

According to British intelligence, Russia is suffering huge loses.

Ukraine is suffering too in their offensive but not as much as the Russian is.

For how long can Russia keep on losing 5-1000 men per day ?
Same goes for Ukraine(I haven't the figure on how many they lose per day)

Markus

Skybird

06-18-23, 07:00 AM

.

For how long can Russia keep on losing 5-1000 men per day ?
Same goes for Ukraine(I haven't the figure on how many they lose per day)

Markus
The real important question is who can replace his losses. Russia can afford disproportional losses, Ukraine cannot. Russia's potential reserves in men and material, are practically unlimited, and their care for their soldiers is nill and zero.

Ukriane needs a reakjthrouzgh at one locaiton, but that must be substantial, breakign all three defence lines. They must get it quite quuickly, else their offensive will stall down soon. The fast success is relevant becasue it woudl allow them to roll up Russian lines from behind. If they do nto get that oppruitnity, then they have practically no cnhance, you will get a frontlihne that moves a bit back and forth instead and then freezes. Stationary WW1-style warfare decisively favours the Russians, the Ukrainains must enforce a more open and mobile warfare. And this with inferior forces... Their challenge is biblical.

A word on the losses listed by the Orynx portal. Note that their lists are not and cannot be complete, even if almost everybody quotes them as being the best loss estamations there are. They only list those losses that they were able to verify by video and photo and beyond doubt. But it would be foolish to assume that all losses can get documented this way during a runnign war and fighting at such intensity levels as we see in Ukriane. So the lists by Oryx imho represent a minimum of losses only. The real numbers are higher, I am sure.

Jimbuna

06-18-23, 07:09 AM

Can't say I was overly shocked when I came across this article in the Express

Drunk Russian troops 'using pocket knives to castrate Ukrainian prisoners of war' https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1781835/Drunken-Russian-troops-castrate-Ukrainian-POWs

Jimbuna

06-18-23, 07:31 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rKpfDxrfnbE

Jimbuna

06-18-23, 08:59 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ksTnXcQqR3o

Skybird

06-18-23, 09:06 AM

Too bad, but as I repeatedly said: the Russians adapted. Successfully. This is no longer that stupid horde that it was one year ago.

https://www-tagesspiegel-de.translate.goog/internationales/eine-taktik-wie-aus-dem-lehrbuch-so-andert-russland-seine-strategie-in-der-kampfzone-10004887.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp

Jimbuna

06-18-23, 09:12 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GbFo_cBoxhk

Jimbuna

06-18-23, 09:31 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p8IzSHsUn5s

Dargo

06-18-23, 09:52 AM

Ex-KGB officer Sergei Yirnov: 'The man who visited Mariupol and Sebastopol in March this year was not Putin'
If Putin is really cornered, he will eventually push the red button. So says former Russian spy and ex-KGB officer Sergei Jirnov in his book L'escalade. 'Megalomaniacal as he is, he will feel that the whole world should go down with him if he loses.' As Sergei Jirnov walks down the stairs from his hotel room in Brussels to pose for our photographer, a chambermaid is just dragging down a heavy suitcase. "That's for room 40," she says. Jirnov is immediately suspicious. "That's my room. And that suitcase is not mine." Whereupon he promptly sprints towards reception to ask for an explanation. In the meantime, we look at the suitcase with a touch of apprehension. Jirnov has just told us that the studio of radio station NRJ was hacked yesterday, during his interview. "Nothing was still working, not in the first and not in the second studio. Even the phone of a friend who was with us was hacked. Suddenly the code to open her phone had disappeared, only reappearing in the evening." After a few minutes, he returns: "Void alarm, the suitcase is for the next guest who booked my room."

As a former Russian spy and ex-KGB officer, Sergei Jirnov (62) has to seriously watch his step, that much is certain. Born in Moscow, he joined the youth wing of the Communist Party at 14, where he immediately took charge. Together with his outstanding school performance, this earned him a recommendation for training at the USSR-Russia Foreign Ministry, where he obtained the Russian state diploma in 1983. A year later, at the same time as Vladimir Putin, he was accepted into the prestigious KGB training at Moscow's Yuri Andropov Institute, where he trained as a secret agent. Here, too, he passes with flying colours. He is allowed to leave for Europe, something only the best agents are destined to do. Putin's career is less glorious: he is sent to Dresden, then still part of East Germany. In Paris, Jirnov infiltrates the renowned École Nationale d'Administration (ENA), something no Russian spy had succeeded in doing until then. But after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, the Muscovite calls it quits as a secret agent and goes to work as a journalist and consultant on international relations. When he narrowly survives an attempted poisoning in 2001, he is granted political asylum in France, where he still lives. Over the years, Jirnov emerged as a rabid opponent of Putin and his entourage. In his latest book L'escalade, he warns of nuclear threats from Moscow, as Putin's chances of victory seem to dwindle by the day.

"For me, it is clear that the Russians are behind the Nova Kachovka dam breach. Because they reaped the most benefits from it. Because of the flood, they have secured 300 kilometres of territory along the Dnieper. No military combat is possible there in the coming months because the ground has become too boggy. The explosion at the dam was an act of desperation. It was also in retaliation to events in Belgorod (Russian border region, ed.), where Russian and possibly Ukrainian rebels had invaded. That the flooding might affect the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant is part of the plan. If Russia later destroys the water basin (which serves to cool the nuclear fuel, ed.), and I see it absolutely capable of that, it could cause a nuclear catastrophe."

Ukrainian military expert Oleksander Kovalenko warns that Russia will carry out more attacks that undermine the Ukrainian ecosystem. For example, the ammonia pipeline from Russia to Odessa was blown up twice recently, causing a toxic cloud not far from Kharkiv. Both countries accuse each other. How do you view that?
"It is definitely a possibility. The pipeline ends at the ammonia plant in Odessa, which may be a future target. The more ground Ukrainian forces gain, the greater the likelihood of Russian terror attacks on chemical and nuclear targets. Moscow is beginning to realise that it can no longer win this war. This is a very dangerous situation, because if Putin is really cornered, I fear he will eventually push the nuclear button anyway. "The state of the Russian military is dire and the attacks on Russian military airports last December, plus the recent drone attacks on the Kremlin and other places in Moscow, show that Russia is indeed vulnerable. This makes Putin feel increasingly cornered. Although he does not show this to the outside world. His reactions to the recent drone attacks in Moscow came late and were lukewarm, as if he did not take it all that seriously."

You have been accused of being an alarmist.
"There are always people who think I sound too alarmist. But I see it as a realistic scenario. If Putin deploys tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine, I don't think he will target Kiev, I suspect he will proceed in the same way the US did in Japan in 1945. They did not drop an atomic bomb on Tokyo, but took aim at two smaller cities: Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Putin might target Mykolaiv, Kherson or Dnipro, and leave Kiev alone. As a warning that things could always be worse. "Of course he realises that NATO will strike back hard if he pushes the red button. NATO will completely destroy its Black Sea Fleet and other strategic sites, with conventional weapons. That need only take a day and then Putin will be nowhere at all. But he will never accept that defeat. Megalomaniacal as he is, he will think the whole world should go down with him if he loses. He says so literally: when a journalist asked him in 2019 during a debate on nuclear weapons whether he would push the red button, Putin replied that if Russia is wiped out, the world no longer has a right to exist."

If China comes up with weapons, Russia could hold out in Ukraine for some time.
"I am not so convinced about Chinese military support. It is a step too far because the country does not want to further risk its ties with the West. Economically, China does want to support Russia, but I don't see it going further than that for now. The relationship between China and Russia is not at all as good as was predicted. China is also not importing huge amounts of oil and gas from Russia; after the war, that percentage increased only slightly. Nor has China been investing in Russian oil or gas fields since the war. The country is seeking a middle ground between its self-interest and its support for Russia."

Philosopher Noam Chomsky also warns of a Russian nuclear attack. This is precisely why we need to sit down with the Russians more than ever, he says. Although that seems an increasingly unfeasible option. Do you still believe in negotiations?
"Not at all. When the Allies negotiated with Hitler at the time, it was in the belief that Hitler would not follow through with his plans. While he was already preparing for World War II. The same applies to Putin. There is simply no negotiating with him. Things have to go the way he wants, there are no other options. Ukrainian President Zelensky knows this. He will never negotiate with Putin himself. With other deputies of Russia he might, but Zelensky too will not give an inch: every Russian must leave Ukrainian territory."

Remains that sooner or later Putin himself will be deposed. Meanwhile, the actions of Russian-nationalist militias are increasing. How great is their influence?
"Those actions show that Russia has weaknesses and is unable to protect its own citizens, but they don't really make a big difference militarily. They are pinpricks, coming from an unorganised group. Because it is not a coherent movement, the FSB (the current federal security service, ed.) can do little against it. Ilya Ponomarov (who has declared himself leader of the Freedom-from-Russia Legion, ed.) lives in exile in Ukraine and is trying to create an opportunity for himself to return to Russia as a politician, should a change of power occur there. The second grouping, the Russian Volunteer Corps, is a different story. These are soldiers fighting in Ukraine, 80 to 90 per cent of whom are neo-Nazis. There is no difference between them and Prigozhin's Wagner group. I would not be surprised if the two soon join forces and attack the Kremlin."

According to your book, Putin will be toppled from his throne either by the military, the secret services or the oligarchs.
"I pin my hopes on the oligarchs. There are 117 billionaires in Russia and apart from money, they all have their own security agents, as well as the means to depose Putin. That this has not happened so far is because they are afraid. Especially of each other. There is so much distrust that they fail to unite. "But the situation has changed since I wrote the book early this year. The most promising man in Russia right now is Yevgeny Prigozhin. He is the Russian Trump: billionaire, a big mouth, self-centred, narcissistic and with a talent for playing the media. Prigozhin understands that Putin's power is on a downward spiral. Putin hardly reacts to the attacks around Belgorod, he is too busy handing out medals and when he speaks on TV, he does so from his bunker. This is unworthy of a president. Putin uses a double when he goes to the front. There has been much speculation about it, but for me it is clear. The man who visited Mariupol and Sebastopol in March this year was not Putin. In Moscow, the road is blocked off for hours whenever Putin needs to pass, and under extensive escort. And then he would drive around Mariupol just like that? Surely no one believes that? There is no hard evidence, but it is not abnormal for a head of state to use a double. Even Saddam Hussein had one."

Do you really think an ex-con like Prigozhin has a chance of succeeding Putin?
"Why not? Putin is old and it is not certain he will participate in the 2024 presidential elections. He has also been in power for 23 years, people have quietly seen it. Prigozhin is popular in Russia, he is also the only public figure to appear at the front and his criticism of Putin and the Kremlin is cutting. I think he will stand and he will win. Prigozhin is not an actor, pretending to be no better than he is: a criminal who spent nine years in prison, and current leader of an army. He can erase his criminal record, though everyone knows he has one. Prigozhin is a predator, even in that respect he resembles Trump: he is obsessed with power and willing to go far for it. If he is not assassinated, I can see him doing it."

You have met Putin a few times. What impression did he make on you?
"He is not as smart as many think. I don't say that to offend him, I know from experience. Putin is certainly not stupid, but I would call him cunning rather than intelligent. The first time I met him was in 1980, during my third year at university. It was the summer of the Moscow Olympics. Those were boycotted by 65 countries because of the Russian invasion of Afghanistan. The city was empty, no one was there except the athletes themselves, the police, the KGB and some students like me, who were volunteering for the Games. Because I was good at languages, they put me at the call centre, where I had to answer phones from abroad. Only no one called us. Then one day the phone did ring: I got a Frenchman on the line; he was calling out of pure curiosity, he said. My French was already pretty good at that time, I talked to him for at least two hours. He talked about his country, I talked about mine. Nothing wrong, except that I had forgotten that we were in the middle of the Cold War. Afterwards, I was called to the mat and faced a small man in grey uniform who pulled out his red KGB card and introduced himself as Captain Vladimir Putin. He questioned me for two hours and the impression he left was that of a small man enjoying the power he had at the time. Putin was 28 at the time and working in Leningrad, but he wanted to gain a foothold in Moscow and then work abroad as a spy."

He failed to do so. You call him a failed spy.
"He failed his exam at the Andropov institute because he did not appear mentally stable enough by KGB standards. He failed the psychological tests because he got involved in a street fight in Leningrad when he was harassed by hooligans. He broke his arm and ended up at the police station. Too emotional, was the verdict of the KGB. Whereupon they sent him to a small post in Dresden, in communist East Germany. While he so wanted to go to the West. Conclusion: during the first half of his life, he did not make much of it professionally."

So how did he manage to make it to president of Russia?
"He has been very lucky, partly by being in the right place at the right time. He was launched into politics by Anatoli Sobchak, mayor of St Petersburg at the time. Putin was a student of his and also an errand boy, fetching water and ordering taxis. Thanks to Sobchak, Putin made a career: he became the first deputy mayor of the new St Petersburg, but when Sobchak lost the elections in 1996, Putin lost his job. Meanwhile, thanks to Sobchak's corrupt practices, he did become a millionaire. Among other things, with German money, intended for humanitarian purposes but which partly ended up in Putin's pockets. He had also built up good relations in St Petersburg. Boris Yeltsin appointed him prime minister in late 1999. From then on things only went uphill, and in 2000 he was elected president."

He remained in power all this time. So how did he manage that?
"Because of his cunning and his talent to surround himself with the right people, including by playing them off against each other. He is like the godfather of the mafia: no one can say anything wrong about him. He fancies himself unapproachable, chosen by God to save Russia and the world. Though he seems rather chosen by the devil to bring down the whole lot. What also plays into his popularity is his image as the first "normal" president. After - admittedly striking - figures like Brezhnev, Yeltsin and Gorbachev, Putin sold himself as an ordinary person, a man of the people. That worked. Meanwhile, he did not believe in communism at all, just as he did not believe in the Orthodox Church. He is only interested in money. His fortune is Russia. The vast properties of millionaires are state property, and the state is Putin. So Russia belongs to him, he thinks."

You were in the KGB in the 1980s. What remains of the old KGB ideology today?
"Not much. Except for the archives, offices and certain methods, the current FSB is completely different. The KGB was a branch of the Communist Party, the FSB is only concerned with money. They are armed and have the power to seize someone's property or not. Again, it is similar to the mafia."

https://www.demorgen.be/nieuws/ex-kgb-er-sergej-jirnov-de-man-die-in-maart-dit-jaar-marioepol-en-sebastopol-bezocht-was-niet-poetin~baf49c0c/

Dargo

06-18-23, 01:07 PM

Counteroffensive--KA-52s and prepare for more destruction
The problem, as Ive probably banged on about too much, is that the Russians have, for this precise reason made this what looks like the most well defended part of their line, and this reality has meant that the Ukrainians will have to inflict a great deal of destruction on Russian forces before they can move forward. What seems to have happened is that at the start of this phase of the counteroffensive the Ukrainians started testing the strength of Russian lines by pushing forward some of their prepared armored forces. It quickly became clear because of the range of options the defending Russians possessed (mines, airpower, handhelds, artillery, etc) that this was not a tactic that would gain victory quickly.

Since then the Ukrainians have more to a tactic of engage and destroy. Make small advances (though much quicker for instance than the Russians make around Bakhmut), bring Russian forces out to stop them or even counterattack, and use this opportunity to destroy the Russians. They will have to do this for a while, until Russian forces are so weak that a more significant advance can occur.

In that way it is a good thing that the Russians are now committing some of their best remaining systems, such as the KA-52 helicopter, to this fight. If you want to read a little more about the KA-52 you can take a look at this.

https://www.airforce-technology.com/projects/ka52-alligator-attack-helicopter-russia/

These are some of the most powerful weapons in Russia’s arsenal though, like all helicopters they are also very vulnerable to anti-air fire. In this case Russia also possesses only a relatively small number of them (just over 100 it seems, though its very hard to get definite figures).

Now when they appeared, some in the press (as always) dramatically overreacted and stories started appearing about how much damage they had and would inflict.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraines-armor-appears-to-have-a-russian-attack-helicopter-problem

Then, guess what, the Ukrainians started shooting down KA-52s. https://twitter.com/GeneralStaffUA/status/1670307919852711940?s=20 This morning they claimed two were shot down yesterday. This is in a nutshell what we have seen and will see for a while (and why its probably a good thing that Russia is throwing its most advanced systems into the fight). Without control of the air and unable to make fast advances because of the vulnerability of its own forces going forward, the Ukrainians are going to have to chew through a great deal of Russian equipment and soldiery. The more they can destroy of the best Russian strength now, the better chances for a successful counteroffensive down the road. https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/weekend-update-33?sd=pf

Jimbuna

06-18-23, 01:17 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Na345mdIlZg

Dargo

06-18-23, 01:41 PM

Twitter Bubbles and Ukraine’s Counteroffensive
The fog of war is denser on social media than on the battlefields of Ukraine. The provision of modern weapon systems by NATO members, combined with the successful offensive conducted by Kyiv’s forces in Kharkiv in September 2022, and their methodical advance in Kherson later that same year, have inevitably generated high expectations in public opinion.

Since the start of Ukraine’s offensive on June 4, a widespread belief has become apparent — that Ukraine would be able to advance relatively smoothly after days of preparatory strikes against Russian positions, quickly recapture large swathes of territories, and prompt the progressive collapse of the Russian military.

The reality is very different. While in Kharkiv and Kherson districts last year, Ukraine faced overstretched and severely undermanned Russian units, the new counteroffensive must deal with a curtain of fortifications, minefields, and anti-tank ditches aimed at slowing down maneuver units, hindering the use of mechanized formations, and channeling Ukrainian attacking columns into pre-defined kill zones for Russian artillery fire, anti-tank guided missiles (ATGMs), and attack helicopters. As a result, Ukrainians must embark on very dangerous operations characterized by high attrition for personnel and equipment.

The complex net of Russian fortifications will slow the operational tempo of the attackers and provide a key advantage to the Kremlin’s forces: time. With Ukrainian units hampered by a layered belt of obstacles, the occupiers can mount and adjust defensive action more effectively, employing close air support and concealed ATGMs to disable armored vehicles, and then wreaking havoc on dismounted infantry with concentrated artillery barrages.

Ukraine’s problems are compounded by the lack of substantial air support along the frontline due to the persistent threat from Russian air defenses. Consistent with the trend seen since the beginning of the invasion, both Ukraine’s fixed-wing and rotary-wing aircraft must fly low and lob unguided rockets from afar to minimize the risk of detection by ground-based enemy radars, and have difficulty providing close air support to advancing troops, let alone executing in-depth interdiction of potential Russian reinforcements. Consequently, Ukrainian forces will struggle to conduct proper combined arms maneuver operations, with inevitable implications for the counteroffensive.

Furthermore, Russia has had time to adapt and prepare its defenses, relocating its command-and-control structure and readjusting its logistical footprint to cope with Ukraine’s newest long-range strike capabilities. While the quality and number of Russian troops deployed along the frontline are far from uniform, the latter nonetheless have the advantage of defense and can rely upon partial air superiority.

Furthermore, Ukraine must deal with the threat from the constant aerial surveillance provided by Russian drones and the resultant artillery strikes. This requires the integration of mobile short-range air defense (SHORAD) capabilities at scale, in order to counter enemy unmanned aerial systems (UAS), disrupt Russia’s tactical and operational intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR), blind its artillery, and protect maneuver formations. This factor tends to be overlooked, but is critical for Ukraine’s military success.

In other words, Ukraine is trying what no single NATO country has done since the alliance was created in 1949: to conduct large-scale combined arms maneuver operations against a near-peer or peer adversary. It is no exaggeration to say that, at present, no NATO country, with the exception — perhaps — of the US, possesses sufficient capabilities and resources to conduct an operation like this. To put this in perspective, the only time some NATO members fought a large-scale land campaign against a conventional – albeit much weaker – adversary during Operation Iraqi Freedom against Saddam Hussein’s Iraq in 2003, they enjoyed total air supremacy. https://cepa.org/article/twitter-bubbles-and-ukraines-counteroffensive/

Skybird

06-18-23, 02:38 PM

Scheiße.

https://www-fr-de.translate.goog/politik/deutsche-panzer-erbeutet-leopard-russische-armee-ukraine-krieg-saporioschschja-92349285.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp

(...)
If the 2A4 was actually removed despite an estimated weight of 60 tons, the Russians could now, according to the news magazine, “gain knowledge in two areas. On the one hand, they will study Western technology and thus try to improve their own developments. That will start with the main gun, all the electronics and targeting will be exciting," the report said.

The structure of the armor is also interesting. “They will try to find the tank's weak points. About the armor. The so-called composite armor consists of layers of different materials and offers far better protection than pure steel. The Russians will now examine this material mix extensively in the laboratory. In addition, they will know exactly how well protected the respective areas are."
(...)

That is about lost, abandoned 2A4s, but there are at least three, maybe more destroyed or abandoned 2A6s as well.

mapuc

06-18-23, 03:26 PM

80 to 120 soldiers per day.

Some hours ago our news channel had a reportage from a MASH unit near Bakhmut and they followed a doctor who worked hard to stabilize wounded soldiers before they are sent to ordinary hospital.

There it was said we lose around 80-120 soldiers per day, since the start of the offensive.

I don't know if it's for the Bakhmut Oblast only or for the entire area where they are advancing. Neither did they say if it was KIA and/or WIA.

Markus

Jimbuna

06-19-23, 05:25 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TlGnDUZ7Za8

Jimbuna

06-19-23, 05:30 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=18i38oCpE7M

Skybird

06-19-23, 07:06 AM

In the past 2-3 days there were a small number of reports idnciating that Ukrianian commandos are operating deeply behind Russian lines, in Russian-held territory. Their main task probably is infiltration&Sabotage, blowing fixed sites up. It was hinted at the possibility that they are suppoprted by reginal partisans.

This could also be the reason for the high losses in helicopters the Russians suffered in recent days, and which to me came a bit unexpected. They hsould have the firing range to fight the front but do so from staying out of range of the frontal and thin air defences of Ukraine. That they nevertheless get targetted and shot down maybe is because they overfly positions of this infiltrating commandos, and thus come under fire far behind the front.

The KA-52 wa s nbot so much planned as a gunship like the Mi-28, but due to its modern (Western) electronics and sensors primarily was meant to serve as a coordindator of forces, sending target data to allied units on the ground or other gunships, more a flying mastermind than a primary attacker. This seems to ahve worked wlel in syria, and agaiunst such a lesser armed enemy there they could afford to attack thenmsleves, too,. withiout taking penalties. It was said the KA-52 was more effective in Syria than was the Mi-28. In Ukriane it seems to be the other way around, with the Mi-28 being the more traditional gunship design. Its weakness seems to be a lack of techncial reliability, though, but the reports say that is something that many KA-52 were hguanted by, too.

I would prefer a slim AH-1 any time. Is there even a helicopter slimmer than this one, seen from its front? Compared to it, the KA-52, from frontal view, is a fat diva.

mapuc

06-19-23, 09:33 AM

ISW: Ukrainian forces may be temporarily pausing counteroffensive operations to reevaluate their tactics for future operations

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-18-2023

Markus

Aktungbby

06-19-23, 10:02 AM

Funny how the whole world gives advice to VladPutin; i'd say better stop it and let him make his mistakes.Precisely! As I've noted previously, the longer he's in office misdirecting his "Peter the Grate" Legacy's russian-peasant cannon-fodder war in Ukraine, the US directed proxy-war goes well. The more so as Finland is a member of NATO, with Sweden in waiting; exactly the containment Russia rails against, particularly with NATO member,Turkey, prohibiting Black Sea transit of Russian warships thru the Bosphorus Dardanelles.The Russian/Ukraine fiasco is an extension of the 1914 Balkan situation with Russia's finger in the Serbian pie until the shot at Sarajevo set the global conflict in motion till 1945 (both world wars). Preventing such another 'shot' is a primary consideration particulaly as 'eternal ally' China, also protesting "entitlement and containment" in the Pacific theater, lusting for the computer chip industry of Taiwan awaits its offensive turn in the South China Sea. As with Hitler's assassination being curtailed (operation Foxley) by the Allies due to his greater usefulness mismanaging Operaton Barbarossa from the Wolf's Lair, we cannot afford to lose Vlad the Incompetent too soon!:yeah:

Jimbuna

06-19-23, 10:21 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_r-zQx05Rfk

Exocet25fr

06-19-23, 10:39 AM

Russia Offers Troops $1.2K Bonuses for Destroyed Western Tanks

https://www.thedefensepost.com/2023/06/19/russia-bonuses-western-tanks/

Russia claims it blew up a tank full of explosives

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/06/19/europe/russia-tank-explosion-donetsk-ukraine-intl/index.html

25-30% of Western Equipment in Ukraine Estimated Destroyed

https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/putin-equipment-ukraine-burns-kornet

mapuc

06-19-23, 03:38 PM

My little sister bought this book The Danish version.

https://www.amazon.com/How-West-Brought-Ukraine-Understanding/dp/0991076702

Haven't read it myself and I'm pretty sure that it contain misinformation.

'Cause it was not USA/NATO who brought the war to Ukraine it was Russia from 2014.

Markus

August

06-19-23, 05:32 PM

'Cause it was not USA/NATO who brought the war to Ukraine it was Russia from 2014.

Markus

I guess it's our fault for not telling the Ukrainians that they should present their backsides to the hungry russian bear in the hope it would take a gentler bite.

According to them what we should have said is:

"Don't resist! Let the russian gangster regime send their armies of soldiers and policemen and paid thugs to murder and jail your leaders and occupy your homes and rape your women and disappear your children and rob your family of everything they own just because we don't want to see a war over there."

...Said no real friend ever.

Jimbuna

06-20-23, 04:07 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IGbv2rQdTCU

Jimbuna

06-20-23, 05:36 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AIIF_ryrPsc

Exocet25fr

06-20-23, 05:53 AM

and here we are almost there !:doh:

Jimbuna

06-20-23, 06:13 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yRL3Nlu9uts

Skybird

06-20-23, 07:37 AM

This analysis cannot be liked. But it says pretty much the same things I critically remarked in the past days and weeks.

https://www-achgut-com.translate.goog/artikel/reicht_die_ausdauer_westlicher_unterstuetzung?_x_t r_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp

I have serious doubts the Ukrainians will make it to the coast.I do not rule it out, but I think chances are against that. The small territorial gains that get blown up in propaganda videos across the web, in princple are pretty meaningless so far, and while they do not even represent 10% of the distance from the front to the coast, acchieving these minor gains already almost locked down one third of the Ukrainian attack forces. Very important, it gets reported that they have lost a very significant ammount of their mine clearing vehicles already. With that math, they cannot succeed. And mind you, the battles so far mostly take place in the area in front of the first defense line, in German that zone would be called "Vorpostenlinie" (outpost line?). the Ukrainians have not even touched the real defences erected by the Russians so far - but already are seriously slowed down (before they announced an operative break, which may also be just an attempt to verbally cover that they got bogged down - I do not say it is so, but I could imagine that it is so).

The Russians have air superiority over the front currently. Ukrtiane will not get fighters in this noffensive.

The Ukrainians completely lack any element of surprise. The Russians have them where they want them: needing to attack through a death maze into heavily fortified defence positions and along two attack axis the Russians had nine months to anticipate: towards Melitopol and Mariupol.

The media of course must play the role of being optimistic and enthusiastically cheering up the Ukrainian effort. I do not trust them. I think Ukraine'S status is much more serius than our media make it out to be, also for economical reasons.

Jimbuna

06-20-23, 08:06 AM

The media of course must play the role of being optimistic and enthusiastically cheering up the Ukrainian effort. I do not trust them. I think Ukraine'S status is much more serius than our media make it out to be, also for economical reasons.

Me neither but rather that than Russian propaganda.

Skybird

06-20-23, 09:50 AM

Propaganda is propaganda. Always a lie.

mapuc

06-20-23, 10:25 AM

Jimbuna

06-20-23, 11:04 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-CQSEeSqxRY

Dargo

06-20-23, 11:40 AM

....and how much correctness has we seen from these experts.

I believe they have some success in some areas, and setbacks in others.

You're right the Russians has fortified their defence lines and thereby make it harder to penetrate.

MarkusRussians fortification of their defense lines was in the planning of Ukraine army also if or when they blow up a dam nobody said this would be easy, offensive is never easy and without high loses. They can do it would not say all to the sea, but they could break through nobody can predict the outcome there is no magic wand we have to wait this can take months. Known is that Ukraine with this probing already have in two weeks more gained than the Russian have in months Russian air superiority is also no certain thing Ukraine has the AIM-9 missiles that with the NASAMS ground-based launch system can fire above 30 kilometers, three times the range of the Ka-52’s long-range anti-tank missile.

Catfish

06-20-23, 12:35 PM

I take it if Ukraine somehow manages to get back Crimea the war will be over :hmmm:

Dargo

06-20-23, 12:37 PM

Ukraine’s defense minister warns against unrealistic expectations for Ukraine’s counteroffensive
Expectations for blitzkrieg progress are based on Ukraine’s successful operations to liberate Kharkiv and Kherson oblasts, but the weather, terrain, and conditions are totally different now

Ukraine’s Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov has urged for patience regarding the current counteroffensive, stating that the situation differs significantly from the swift progress made in the Kharkiv Oblast. In an interview with Current Time, Reznikov attributed heightened expectations around Ukraine’s counteroffensive to fall of 2022, during which Ukraine made two lightning campaigns to liberate Kherson and Kharkiv oblasts. The Kharkiv operation was very fast, successful, unexpected for the enemy, for the world community, and for many Ukrainians. A well-thought-out military operation, well planned and implemented. The Russians were not ready, so we successfully reached the Oskil River,” Reznikov said.

However, the minister noted that the situation in Kherson was different, with slower progress due to different terrain, weather conditions, and other factors. He emphasized that it is unrealistic to expect the same speed of progress as in Kharkiv, given the different front line, terrain, and weather conditions.

“Plus, the Russians had a chance to prepare. The density of minefields is incredible. Unlike the Russians, Ukrainians cherish the lives of their soldiers. The Russians use their soldiers as cannon fodder,” Reznikov pointed out.

Reznikov stressed that the life and health of servicemen are of paramount importance for Ukraine, unlike Russia, and therefore the Ukrainian army does not employ a “meat grinder” tactic.

“Our officers, our commanders maneuver, look for opportunities, move carefully. I suggest not to rush them, not to push, they are doing their job. And they will do it,” the defense minister declared.

On 19 June, the Ministry of Defense reported that the Armed Forces of Ukraine are advancing on Melitopol and Berdiansk, and within a week, eight populated areas in the Tavriya direction were liberated: Novodarivka, Levadne, Storozhove, Makarivka, Blagodatne, Lobkove, Nenudne, and Piatyhatky. https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/06/20/ukraines-defense-minister-warns-against-unrealistic-expectations-for-ukraines-counteroffensive/?swcfpc=1

mapuc

06-20-23, 01:31 PM

Ukraine has only deployed 25% of its forces accumulated for the counter-offensive, while the Russians have thrown 90% of their reserves into defense.

https://twitter.com/NewVoiceUkraine/status/1670921398376878080

Markus

Skybird

06-20-23, 02:41 PM

mapuc

06-20-23, 02:57 PM

It gets reported that Russian troops successfully launched a counteroffensive in the region of Charkiv and Luhansk and approached the city of Kupjansk. US think tank ISW reports heavy Russian attacks along the axis Swatowe-Kremmina. It looks as if Ukrainian lines waver. Hopefully only temporarily.

Whoever thinks the Russians are short in reserves, has smoked good stuff. That the Russian would be able to launch regional counteroffensives is another thing that was not really expected. Could also be a provocation to force Ukrainians to deploy parts of their attack reserves.

The question is:
Do Putin dare to mobilize even more by calling more reserves to the war without trouble on the homefront ?

Can't remember who once wrote-If Putin call in his reservist it would be suicide.

No doubt that compared to Ukraine-Russia has 20-30 times more reservist if not more.

Markus

Dargo

06-20-23, 02:59 PM

It gets reported that Russian troops successfully launched a counteroffensive in the region of Charkiv and Luhansk and approached the city of Kupjansk. US think tank ISW reports heavy Russian attacks along the axis Swatowe-Kremmina. It looks as if Ukrainian lines waver. Hopefully only temporarily.

Whoever thinks the Russians are short in reserves, has smoked good stuff. That the Russian would be able to launch regional counteroffensives is another thing that was not really expected. Could also be a provocation to force Ukrainians to deploy parts of their attack reserves.They transfer'd couple days ago troops from the Kherson Oblast because they do not expect an attack after blowing up the dam. So that's the reserves to deploy elsewhere, Ukraine are good defenders think their MOD will deal with this quickly.

Skybird

06-20-23, 03:03 PM

They transfer'd couple days ago troops from the Kherson Oblast because they do not expect an attack after blowing up the dam. So that's the reserves to deploy elsewhere, Ukraine are good defenders think their MOD will deal with this quickly.

Cherson and Charkiv are not really close to each other, but are half the front length apart ;) . I doubt they could have shifted reserves from Cherson to Charkiv in that short time. ISW says in fact it is the 76th airborne brigade leading the attacks - and that is in the region since longer time, I think.

Skybird

06-20-23, 03:04 PM

mapuc

06-20-23, 03:18 PM

Dargo

06-20-23, 03:23 PM

Two very different views/theories on the status of and outlook for Ukraine.

https://www-tagesspiegel-de.translate.goog/internationales/ukraine-offensive-im-stocken-rennt-kiew-die-zeit-weg-10010587.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wappUkraine must find a way to bypass those defense lines and attack them from the back if that is not possible they better wait for the F-16's.

Dargo

06-20-23, 03:27 PM

I truly hope but I fear most that Ukraine will have huge difficulty in taking Crimea or other areas

I get positive when I see all the clips from pro-Ukrainian side on twitter, Yes it's propaganda. Until Ukraine is defeated I have hopes.

MarkusTaking Crimea is an peninsula too far in my eyes, let them first take back areas lost after Feb 2022 if they can do that maybe something will happen in the power base of Russia.

mapuc

06-20-23, 03:28 PM

It shouldn't come as a surprise for me, if we are seeing F-16's in the sky over Ukraine within a couple of month from now.

I'm convinced that Ukrainian pilots has been trained in flying these since month back this has been done secretly.

Markus

Skybird

06-20-23, 05:12 PM

F-16s are no wonder weapons. Nor will the come in the numbers they would be needed in. Like always. Its always late what Ukraine gets, and always too much to die, too little to win. Finally, Russian air defences are not exactly shabby. By doctrine in late cold war, troops have more manpads than NATO troops.

F-16s are something for not late in next year. Ukraine cannot wait for them,
Western patience is running low.

That the conflict will "freeze", to me currently is the most likely scenario. In a few years then the Russians will start again. And maybe not in Ukraine.

Skybird

06-20-23, 06:02 PM

Macronman leaves Babble-Olaf alone. The French has given up hope to influence Putin, and also is "snapped" that Putin has rejected all attempts by France to mediate. Macronman now says he wants a clear timetable for Ukraine to join NATO, no matter what - and that is nothing else but a 180° turnaround by him. It is also a declaration of mistrust of Germany's attempt to keep itself in the game by acting as a security guarantor for Ukraine - with a practically impotent military :har: . He also warned against Germany's idea of a united European air defence system (of which France is no part), stating that this would trigger a new arms race with Russia, and that it is an illusion to gain the ability to protect all European air space. Instead, the French see article 5 as the best guarantee to safeguard against russian aggression.

Well. Before Russian missiles hit France, they reach Poland and Germany. The NATO membership is okay if Ukraine in all regards qualify for the standards regading its military, and corruption therein must be cut down. Thats why Biden refused to ease the road for Ukraine, and he is right. Macronman's words on the air defence is an attempt to support French influence in europe in face of this Sky Shield initiave by Germany which France has refused to join. The German proposal is anythign but altruistic, when Bubble-Olaf says he wants to protect the Baltic and Polish air space, he means that these states should serve as protectors of Germany. Von der Leyen, when she still was a carricature of a German defence ministress, wanted to unite eastern forces under German command, equip them, but not contributing much troops. The heavy and the dirty and the bloody work should have been done by the Eastern neighbours - under German command. A German foreign legion, so to speak.

Our Eastern neighbours were so happy to hear that, I tell you.

Jimbuna

06-21-23, 04:07 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gfcHP2rgloI

Jimbuna

06-21-23, 04:16 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d-PGHORSJsg

Jimbuna

06-21-23, 05:08 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F3lcP-wam5Q

Jimbuna

06-21-23, 07:13 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f53Hf8Iml_o

Jimbuna

06-21-23, 10:51 AM

The other side of the coin. I'll leave it up to the individual which narrative they believe.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iDv4cFtogkE

mapuc

06-21-23, 12:37 PM

^ There's two part in a war and think that it's only one side who's soldier surrender is wrong thinking..Soldiers on both side surrender.

Sometimes it's few and sometimes it's many who surrender on both side.

Markus

Skybird

06-21-23, 06:12 PM

Do Ukrainian soldiers have incentives to surrender when knowing things like this?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3sK6o_g-FV0

Skybird

06-22-23, 04:42 AM

The Ukrainian secret service confirms a Russian attack on its headquarters.

The ISW speaks of ongoing successful Russian counter-attacks.

Ukraine has hit a key bridge from Cherson to Crimea, apparently with Storm Shadow missile(s). This is thought to have made logistics in the region "significantly more difficult" for the Russians.

The French-made nuclear alliance in the EU that is seen as opposition to the German-led dictate to switch off nuclear energy, has restrengthend efforts to shift Eastern european nuclear powerplants' supplies with nuclear fuel fro Russia to alternative fuel providers. France is the second biggest producer of nuclear enewrgy after the United States, but does not get its fuels from Russia. However, at least before the war they have sent their spent nuclear fuel to Rosatom for reprocessing. Nuclear fuel has so far been exempt from European sanctions because Eastern European producers buy their material from Rosatom.

Colonel Reisner, two days ago on NTV (switch on subtitles and autotranslate):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JR1E4yGGzKk

Reece

06-22-23, 06:03 AM

^ Yeh!! German subtitles!! :doh:

Jimbuna

06-22-23, 06:03 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=umTtk4t0xVU

Jimbuna

06-22-23, 06:06 AM

^ Yeh!! German subtitles!! :doh:

If Marc can be bothered to learn English you should be prepared to learn German :)

Reece

06-22-23, 06:09 AM

Thanks Jim!! :yep::hmmm::doh:

Jimbuna

06-22-23, 06:11 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-bUtJWIwJEs

Skybird

06-22-23, 06:12 AM

^ Yeh!! German subtitles!! :doh:
You activate subtitles via icon. Then you must switch them in the options (the gear wheel, bottom right corner) to "autotranslate", and then English. :salute: You can translate to any language you want. You can also reduce speed to 0.75 or 0.5 so that the subtitles are longer on screen.

Reece

06-22-23, 06:16 AM

Got it! Thanks. :up:

em2nought

06-22-23, 06:24 AM

Apparently the Pentagon has found "accounting errors" that will enable them to give another $6 billion in U.S. taxpayer dollars to the Ukraine. These "errors" no matter which way they occur never seem to benefit the actual taxpayers. :D

Jimbuna

06-22-23, 07:04 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FFppdGto5g8

mapuc

06-22-23, 12:54 PM

There is a reported Ukrainian breakthrough in Robotyne, this is reported by Russian Sources

If true then it is a significant breakthrough in Ukraine’s counteroffensive

https://twitter.com/ukraine_map/status/1671937708208300035

Markus

Jimbuna

06-22-23, 12:55 PM

Russians living in occupied Crimea have been told to flee the area after Vladimir Putin recently escalated nuclear tensions by saying nuclear warheads are ready for use.

Oleksiy Danilov, Kyiv's national security and defence council (NSDC) secretary, has advised any Russians living there to flee to their home country, saying they are not permitted refuge in Ukraine.

mapuc

06-22-23, 01:25 PM

His argument goes like this. In order to "break the West's will", Russia "will have to make nuclear deterrence a convincing argument again by lowering the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons".

"The enemy must know that we are ready to deliver a pre-emptive strike in retaliation for all of its current and past acts of aggression in order to prevent a slide into global thermonuclear war.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65976256

Reading Jim's latest comment and this article I fear it may become real in a near future.

Markus

Jimbuna

06-22-23, 01:41 PM

Hopefully there are those within his country who will oppose such action.

Catfish

06-22-23, 04:01 PM

Hopefully there are those within his country who will oppose such action.
Unlikely. I take it to stop all this it needs some action like the Truman doctrine in 1947. "You stop this or there will be war."

Meanwhile

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1671638891974250497?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5 Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1671638891974250497%7Ctwgr% 5E4d0930ca67ebfe31c7a97687569919ebb5fa2005%7Ctwcon %5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fs9e.github.io%2Fiframe%2Ftwi tter.min.html1671638891974250497

A normal day in RuSSia.

Rockstar

06-22-23, 04:22 PM

Cant remember who said it but the higher up mucky-mucks have already said a tit for tat use of nuclear options would not necessarily be our first response. They’ve stressed they could launch a massive and devastating conventional response against Russia that would lay it to waste.

Russians should keep in mind too if push comes to shove and they push that nuclear option button. Then everything they ever loved and held dear would in one big bright flash cease to exist

https://youtu.be/lj60OAh7O5U

mapuc

06-22-23, 04:32 PM

^ It depends on where you live. No doubt that even I who live far from some major city are in danger from getting sick from radiation

Back to the Article I posted earlier

The threat of using nukes could also be a sign of despair. They are being pressed up in a corner and now they show teeth.
But I fear that the dog soon will try to bite

Markus

Skybird

06-22-23, 06:20 PM

Its the simple, brutal and only reaction pattern Putin - and with him many Russians in their state "elite" - knows: if being pushed, push back harder. If they dont break, kick harder. If they resist or threaten you, escalate.

Giving up, retreat, is a sign of weakness in their mental world. Russia is all Marvel heroes united in one country. Weakness gets you killed. Therefore, giving up, retreating, is no option. Means: Putin will carry on, no matter what the West does. He has no altentrtaives to ensure his biolgical survival at home, and he doe snto know any other mental attitude: Escalate. If they resits, escalate more. Always more, always more, brtuality knows no upward limits, so more, until they are too scared. Winning is guaranteed. It only takes time.

Its the simple logic of completely unscrupolous brutality. Somebody once said Putin in principle is a backyard thug who pops up in front of you on the street when the sun has set and coldy, politely asks you for your watch and money, and when you say no, he beats you up that you end up being closer to death than life, if you even survive it, then takes the watch and money from your motionless body, and walks back into the darkness of the backyards where his gang of thugs resides.

If we want not to lose Ukraine or see it getting agriculturally and economically and industrially completely destroyed, then WE must escalate and give the Russians more pain than they believe could exist. And we must convince them by our unscared deeds and attacks that we are not afraid to attack them on their own soil and do not fear nuclear weapons. We must do the oppposite of what they expect from us. So far we just justify their perception of the West. If we act "reasonably" and with modesty like until here, Putin will know that if only he escalates far enough, we will shy away in the end and give up and then he always winds, becasue he is nwilkign to escalate further than we are. He is willing to escalate further than we would, in his perception, and that perception obviously is correct. Thats why I am pessimistic about Ukraine. Currently, I see them and us all loosing. And it creates a precedence. The next war some years after the Ukraine war has ended in any way, imo is just a question of some years, 10 years and not so much more than that.

That is a bitter situation we are in: we must accept the risk of nuclear attacks, and we must be willing to retaliate. We are afraid of that, but so far we let this fear command our deeds and define our limits of deeds. Add to that the de facto military impotence of practically all European militaries. That includes Britain and France.

Nobody will like what my advise is. Nor do I ike it, but I follow the logic of what I said above to its consistent end. I cannot do it differently, thats how I tick. Its also reflected in my real life biography.

We must show that we are willing to escalate to nuclear weapons use first.

And after we have said it, we must indeed do it, we must niot want to avoid it, but we must demostrate it. Not waiting for an oppurtnity, but we must strike offensively, one or two weapons. We must create a staged cause if there is no real one, and then blow it up, nothing that threatens Russian cities already, but something that really deeply hurts their military, preferred is it is linked to the war in Ukraine. We must turn Putins own logic against him - and we must be brutal. Their shall be no doubt on how brutal and nasty and dirty we can be. That, and nothing else, is the meaning of "deterrance".

I told you, nobody will like what I say.

There is one episode in this - awful! - new Star Trek series (I hate it and do not watch it). The episode is called "The Vulcan Hello". It makes a reference to the first meeting of a Vulcan and Klingon ship. The Vulcans analysed the warrior culture of the Klingons and concluded the onyl way to not gettign invoilved in a big war with them was to send them a special Hello. They opened fire and immediaely destroyed the Klingon ship durign first contact, without further warning. There was no war in the aftermath between Viulcans and Klingons.

Fiction, and science fiction, but think of it. There is truth in it.

Consider the many unspeakable crimes against humanity the Russians have committed in the past 25 years, in syria, Chechnya, Ukraine. Them any posnings and assassinations. The torture in their prisons. And then tell me you believe you could impress a man, a state who accepts to do these things of horror, with reason, with mindful wording, with carefully selected verbal warnings! Scaled sanctions, and all these civilised oh so caring things! 16 months of war. Putin gives sh!t.

Get a thick leather glove, a big one, and play dirty, put a horse shoe into it, and when Putin tells you he is willing to talk, walk uo to him and without hesitation without warning slam your fist into his mouth as strong as you can and with intetion to kill. Murderous thugs like Putin will even then not understand Vulcan Hellos, because they will be dead. But their minions taking over then will remember it and understand the meaning of the Vulcan Hello.

Needless to say, from then on you have to be on your guard against Russia, at all times. Here is the reaosn why we will not do this, and thus accept Ukraine to get destroyed: we are too weak. Materially, and psychologically. And America cannot control a conflict with Russia and China at the same time. Thats why ti chooses to instead slowy boil the frog - att eh cost and at the loss of Ukraine. I do not see the American help and atottude as heroic - far from it! But then, I do not applaude the European generlal attitude either.

---------------

On a sidenote, China has agreed to join several boycotts targetting Russian banks. I find the timing interesting, it comes after the Kremlin went into verbal berserk mode once again and threatend nuclear attacks on NATO. My guts feelign says its not just a Chinese trick, but that they send a serious warning this way. I only doubt that backyard thug Putin cares.

mapuc

06-23-23, 02:37 AM

This cartoon is true and it shows why we shall keep on supporting them.

https://twitter.com/ukraine_map/status/1672017311631396865

Markus

Jimbuna

06-23-23, 04:59 AM

Unlikely. I take it to stop all this it needs some action like the Truman doctrine in 1947. "You stop this or there will be war."

Meanwhile

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1671638891974250497?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5 Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1671638891974250497%7Ctwgr% 5E4d0930ca67ebfe31c7a97687569919ebb5fa2005%7Ctwcon %5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fs9e.github.io%2Fiframe%2Ftwi tter.min.html1671638891974250497

A normal day in RuSSia.

I bet he's a right charmer to invite around for a cuppa :)

Jimbuna

06-23-23, 05:19 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JKfSke0Y8zQ

mapuc

06-23-23, 05:33 AM

As Denys mention in this video ^ Russia have placed mines around the reactors at the powerplant and around the pond which water is used to cool the reactors.

Made me think, Putin don't have to use tactical nukes, blowing up the plant and the entire Ukraine will be wasteland for generation ahead

There's no doubt in my mind that if Putin gives the order-NATO will react.
How !? I don't know.

Markus

Jimbuna

06-23-23, 05:37 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p0_99gA9_jk

Reece

06-23-23, 06:30 AM

Putin wants to commit suicide and take his country down with him! :Kaleun_Sick:
What a nut job!! :k_confused:

Jimbuna

06-23-23, 06:33 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YvkT_zVy4zk

mapuc

06-23-23, 06:43 AM

Putin wants to commit suicide and take his country down with him! :Kaleun_Sick:
What a nut job!! :k_confused:

Sadly it would be every country in Europe who would be affected if Putin use nukes or blow up the Nuclear powerplant

This is the easy plan

Most likely it would be a lot worse.

But as Jim wrote earlier-Hopefully there's some who will eliminate Putin before he press the button

Markus

Jimbuna

06-23-23, 07:23 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ScMCOSLKRdw

Skybird

06-23-23, 10:51 AM

I fRiussia canniot get and keep Ulkraine, it will try its best to turn it into scorched earth so thaturkainans cannot live anymore, too. The destruction of farmland by polluting it (dam explosions), the destruction of economy and factories, the danger of nuclear poisoning of the land. It all has a big black label on it saying "Scorched Earth Policy".

Jimbuna

06-23-23, 11:03 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xEOfelNa9ag

Dargo

06-23-23, 02:02 PM

Oeps

Full message of Prigozhi "declaring war on the Russian Ministry of Defence:

"PMC Wagner CommandersÂ’ Council made a decision: the evil brought by the military leadership of the country must be stopped.

They neglect the lives of soldiers. They forgot the word Â“justiceÂ”, and we will bring it back.

Those, who destroyed today our guys, who destroyed tens, tens of thousands of lives of Russian soldiers will be punished.

IÂ’m asking: no one resist. Everyone who will try to resist, we will consider them a danger and destroy them immediately, including any checkpoints on our way. And any aviation that we see above our heads.

IÂ’m asking everyone to remain calm, do not succumb to provocations, and remain in their houses. Ideally, those along our way, do not go outside.

After we finished what we started, we will return to the frontline to protect our motherland.

Presidential authority, Government, Ministry of Internal Affairs, Rosgvardia, and other departments will continue operating as before.

We will deal with those who destroy Russian soldiers. And we will return to the frontline.

Justice in the Army will be restored. And after this, justice for the whole of Russia." https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672314259907158028

Oeps

Full message of Prigozhi "declaring war on the Russian Ministry of Defence:

"PMC Wagner CommandersÂ’ Council made a decision: the evil brought by the military leadership of the country must be stopped.

They neglect the lives of soldiers. They forgot the word Â“justiceÂ”, and we will bring it back.

Those, who destroyed today our guys, who destroyed tens, tens of thousands of lives of Russian soldiers will be punished.

IÂ’m asking: no one resist. Everyone who will try to resist, we will consider them a danger and destroy them immediately, including any checkpoints on our way. And any aviation that we see above our heads.

IÂ’m asking everyone to remain calm, do not succumb to provocations, and remain in their houses. Ideally, those along our way, do not go outside.

After we finished what we started, we will return to the frontline to protect our motherland.

Presidential authority, Government, Ministry of Internal Affairs, Rosgvardia, and other departments will continue operating as before.

We will deal with those who destroy Russian soldiers. And we will return to the frontline.

Justice in the Army will be restored. And after this, justice for the whole of Russia." https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672314259907158028If I might add to this, as a total non expert on Russian politics, I canÂ’t see how Prigozhin could make these extreme criticisms of the armed forces and even Putin without the backing of very powerful forces. HeÂ’s never seemed stupid or suicidal. There is more going on here.
And now he's accusing the army of attacking Wagner bases with missiles. He's obviously not afraid to make these claims against the army loud and in public. This has to be part of a deliberate campaign, but exactly who is working with him is the key thing.

What do we know. He is making the most brutal claims against the army, while interesting talking up Ukraine and now criticizing the Russian justification for the full scale invasion. At the same time, all of Wagner has been pulled out of Ukraine to reform.

THis seems part of a well thought out campaign to have a military force in Russia for a struggle for power, and maybe at the same time to convince the west that this new faction is the best one with which to do business. It might seem angry and impulsive, but actually is canny

Ukrainians wondering if this is part of a coup attempt. Certainly sounds like an attempt to overthrow the whole military leadership. The real wild card is PutinÂ’s role in all this. https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1672311399173726209

Vladimir Putin is understood to be faced with Â“increasingly raucous infightingÂ” among his entourage.

While it does not pose an immediate threat to the Russian president, reports the Associated Press, some analysts say failure to stop the fallouts between Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the Wagner group, and Russian military leaders could signal a shift in RussiaÂ’s politics and lead to further internal disagreements.

It comes after a video showed the millionaire contractor stood in front of dead bodies of his troops in Ukraine shouting insults at Russian military leaders and blaming them for the deaths.

Â“They came here as volunteers and they died to let you lounge in your red wood offices,Â” Prigozhin shouted. Â“You are sitting in your expensive clubs, your children are enjoying good living and filming videos on YouTube. Those who donÂ’t give us ammunition will be eaten alive in hell!Â”

Nigel Gould-Davies, a senior fellow for Russia and Eurasia at the International Institute for Strategic Studies and the editor of its Strategic Survey, told AP that while Putin did not appear to be losing influence, he said: Â“There are growing signs of deep dysfunction, anxiety, worry about the war and real problems in marshalling the resources necessary to fight it effectively.Â” https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/jun/23/russia-ukraine-war-live-russia-targets-khmelnytskyi-airfield-amid-warnings-of-missile-and-drone-attacks-across-ukraine?CMP=share_btn_tw&page=with%3Ablock-649540108f084ea43c43ea16#block-649540108f084ea43c43ea16

A military clashes between Wagner and ordinary Russian army will only end with one winner..........Ukraine.

So lets hope it happens.

Lets hope it spread into motherland Russia.

MarkusDisciplined and calm, to await the appearance of disorder and hubbub amongst the enemy:Â—this is the art of retaining self-possession.

https://i.postimg.cc/ncHbxbRt/Wagnervs-Rus-MOD.jpg

Russian President Vladimir Putin has been informed of the recent developments regarding Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin. So says Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov. According to Peskov, "all necessary measures are being taken".

Meanwhile, in a new announcement, Prigozhin reported that "this is not a coup, but a march of justice".

Meanwhile, numerous rumours are circulating on Russian social media channels. For instance, Prigozhin is said to have been placed on the list of foreign agents by the Russian defence ministry. The Russian National Guard is also said to have been placed on heightened alert. However, these reports could not be independently verified.

Russian state news agency TASS says the National Anti-Terrorism Committee is calling for WagnerÂ’s Prigozhin to "cease illegal actions" and has opened a case on charges of "calling for an armed uprising"

^ Came to think on Napoleon who should have said

Do not interrupt your enemies while they are making mistakes.

Edit
Some hours ago Russia attacked Wagner and now some 10 minutes ago:

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672329674729373696

End edit

MarkusLet's not interfere. Let's just watch them, said the peeper :)

^ Came to think on Napoleon who should have said

Do not interrupt your enemies while they are making mistakes.

Edit
Some hours ago Russia attacked Wagner and now some 10 minutes ago:

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672329674729373696

End edit

MarkusPrigozhin has just announced that after the attacks on his men by the Ministry of Defence, Wagner will clean house, punishing those responsible. He says they will kill anyone that gets in their way and restore justice to the army and all of Russia. Prigozhin says that 25,000 of his men are on a mission to take on the Russian Ministry of Defense and to restore justice, but says this is not a military coup and the actions of Wagner will not affect Russian troops. He says anyone can join them on their justice crusade. Prigozhin accuses Russian defense minister Shoigu of coming to Rostov-on-Don to oversee a military operation that was supposed to destroy PMC Wagner and that the helicopter pilots and artillerymen who were involved were kept in the dark about the real target of the operation.

Now #Strelkov is broadcasting Swan Lake to his almost 1 million Telegram followers:

"Internal turmoil is now capable of leading to a military catastrophe" https://twitter.com/jason_corcoran/status/1672330066880020487

:har:

Ukrainian "Bakhmut Demon" ��:

"The leftovers of Wagners on the outskirts of Bakhmut opened fire on the regular roads of the Russian Federation.

Our assault brigades see everything, systematic strikes are now being carried out on the positions of the Russians.

You would hear the radio broadcast of these *** now.

The impression is that part of the Russian regular troops are killing their own, and it seems that part of the military is supporting Prigozhin. While it is not clear what is finally happening, it is a bloodbath" https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672329674729373696

Russian telegram channel Archangel: "All units of the Special Forces of Moscow and the region are on alert" https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1672328678552813568

Girkin - "Let's hope...":

"In Rostov, all the security forces have been put on high alert, but so far everything is quiet. Let's hope that Prigozhin announced a coup, but Wagner themselves do not intend to participate in it." https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672328816528703491

I just spoke to someone with contacts inside Wagner - he confirmed that this wasn't theater, and that Prigozhin is making a move. "It's not clear exactly what's happening right now, but it's not nothing." https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1672339254335221761

Toast in the making.Wagner Group fighters have been saying goodbye to their relatives over the past 24 hours and telling them to watch the TV news, which suggests that they may have had advance notice of today's dramatic events with Yevgeny Prigozhin. Verstka reports that worried relatives are saying in Wagner-related chat rooms that their loved ones have "called and said goodbye" in the last 24 hours, and told them to watch for "what [TV channel] Rossiya 24 has to say". Chat participant Elena Kigeleva says: "Yesterday many guys called and 'conditionally' said goodbye. Many said watch the news." Multiple participants say they can't reach their Wagner men. "My husband is still out of touch abruptly, always writing to give us a live stream , but today it's like this," one of them wrote. "Usually it is always a short call at 7-8 [pm], but today it is silent. I pray it's all a joke. I have no strength anymore." Relatives are worried what will happen to their men. "Our men will soon be recognised as terrorists," one user says. "So they really think someone's going to be able to reach Moscow and what? Storm the Kremlin?" "****, it's the planet of the pink ponies ," responded another member of the chat room.

Others have advised not panicking and waiting for official statements. "Watching Rossiya 24, there's silence," a user nicknamed Yelena says. https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1672338798691115009

But yeah he is toasts if not this will help Ukraine Russia have now a choice where to send resources will be hard to control certainly who can you trust that will not side with Wagner troops at the fronts are mistreated and suffer deceases (there are reports of an outbreak of cholera on the fronts) they are not gone to fight for Putin other option is internal security forces but what we have seen with the raids in Belegrod that went horrible wrong so problem :)

Smile the Russians are killing each other.

I said the toast is being prepared, but I did not say whose bread it is that will get toasted. I dare no prediction.Oh no prediction, it was Wagner that took Bakmut Russian army now only losses in that area. The tinder is there, the only question is who sets it on fire, I hope it was today.

I just red that Prigozhin is bow accused of armed mutiny and the FSB now moves against him.Yes and Russian spetsnaz is raiding the Wagner Center in downtown Saint Petersburg right now.
IÂ’m beginning to think that giving a psychopath his own private army of criminals was not a good idea. https://twitter.com/DarthPutinKGB/status/1672352361161924608

https://i.postimg.cc/dVqKv7B6/catering.jpg

"Fortress" plan has been announced in a number of police departments of Rostov region - Russian media.

UPD. Russian media report that "Fortress" has also been activated in Moscow.

Employees are in alert mode. Whether the alert is academic and what are its causes will be determined. The "Fortress" plan implies an emergency gathering of personnel and taking under control the most important facilities of law enforcement agencies. The plan also provides for readiness to repel an external attack. https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1672339766904274947

A Special Military Operation appears to be underway in Russia. Moscow in three days? :D

Note: Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu fled Rostov region 2 hours ago.

Hmm going to be a short military war between Wagner and Russia if there isn't any Russian general who decide to stand together with the leader of Wagner.

I doubt it.

However a military clashes in Ukraine would fit the Ukrainian army very well.

MarkusThere are reports troops in Russian army applaud Wagner actions, so who knows what will happen

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1672352313091178496

MarkusArmored vehicles on the streets of Moscow and Ruston on Don this is not just PrigozhinÂ’s bla bla on Telegram, it looks more and more like a civil war situation. Russian generals calling for a "halt" show the highest degree of panic and utter helplessness.

Wagner Telegram channel:

"Wagner PMC commanders remain loyal to the most promising politician and will follow any order he gives them. Neither the Federal Security Service nor Surovikin will be able to stop what has begun." https://twitter.com/i/lists/1378399759992512516

The Russian military is deploying troops, including special forces in Moscow and barricading the center of the city as it prepares for what looks more and more like a coup. https://twitter.com/StateOfUkraine/status/1672359808656080897

The addresses of Surovikin and deputy head of Russian intelligence department were filmed in front of a suspiciously similar backgrounds. They look like they've been arrested. https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1672367509557719044

The US and German mainstream media I scan only say Prigozhin is being investigated over charges of armed mutiny. No word on him getting assistance from rvoltuin Russian army units.

He has cooked the last meal for Putin, so much is certain. My impression is he is isolated. But media reports may not be giving the complete picture.If he is isolated, why is Moscow and other regions on high alert there are military vehicles in the streets I think this is happening if he succeeds is another thing. There is too much chatter on the back channels, the whole situation in Russia is panic.

If Prigozhin is truly doing a coup, he will try to take control of Rostov on Don.

Controlling Rostov = cutting off the main supply line to the entire russian army in Ukraine = the army is then Prigozhin's hostage.

When fighting erupts in Rostov - the russian civil war has begun https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1672364607405453313

[I]"@DarthPutinKGB
IÂ’m beginning to think that giving a psychopath his own private army of criminals was not a good idea."

This will be a long night for Russia.

But whatever comes of the situation, Prigozhin said he will continue the war when all has been "finished".
No russian in charge or on TV has said anything about the war being wrong, or to stop it, they just quarrel about the way the war is being fought.
So regardless who "wins" the war may go on Â– :hmmm:Correct in the meantime the factions fight among each other Ukraine can take advance of that and break through.