Here we go again-Ukraine once again

[August]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HWZfPMWnCTo

[Skybird]

Been speculating

If Lukashenko has been poisoned in Moscow.

Then I wonder why!? He is one of Putins strongest supporters.

The only reason I possibly could find, is that he refuse to join Putins war in Ukraine.

No doubt that if he is dead Putin would put a puppet in his place and then we have the trouble.

MarkusWhy Putin would poison him? I explained it some post before. Belarussian people and army are not eager to join the war, and Lukashenko would risk open rebellion if he would follow Putin into the war, even more so since the mood already was bad after he stole the election. Killing Lukashenko would give Putin card blanche for tougher measures to subjugate Belarus by a military coup and without caring for public sentiments: supressing the latter by brute force, which Lukashenko was not willing to risk to that degree.

[mapuc]

Just seen in the news

Lukashenko has shown himself in public today

So all these rumours about his dead or coma was false.

Markus

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SkKp_fkClM0

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oOLx_uGPF7A

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pl-eDWoMv30

[Reece]

Not good news at all Jim, I hope Ukraine fights back harder but trying to do so without destroying the city is very hard!! :k_confused:

[Skybird]

The Neue Zürcher Zeitung summarises everything relevant about Crimea in one piece:

The author Andreas Umland is an analyst at the Stockholm Centre for Eastern European Studies (SCEEUS) of the Swedish Institute of International Affairs (UI).


Crimea will be the endgame of the Russian-Ukrainian war - why there can be no territorial compromise over the Black Sea peninsula

Some believe it is possible that Kiev and Moscow will find a compromise: The Donbass goes back to Ukraine, while (occupied) Crimea remains Russian. The two territories, however, are essentially interrelated, for example in terms of water supply.

The necessity of liberating the Russian-occupied Ukrainian mainland as soon as possible is no longer questioned by most Western experts. In contrast, however, quite a few observers, politicians and diplomats believe that the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014 should be accepted as a fait accompli.
The failure to return the Black Sea peninsula in scenarios to end the Russian-Ukrainian war is often presented as pragmatic. Meanwhile, distinguishing between the Crimean issue on the one hand and peace efforts on the other ignores fundamental facts on the ground. It fails to recognize important causes and dynamics of the escalation of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict since 2014, if not before.

The 2014 occupation of Crimea was a costly and risky endeavor. One purpose of Russia's invasion of Ukraine eight years later was to facilitate its continued occupation of the peninsula. Strategically splitting Western policy toward Moscow into ending Russian occupation of mainland Ukraine, on the one hand, and postponing Crimea's liberation, on the other, is not expedient. This scenario would not only be unsatisfactory for Kiev. It would also pose several challenges for Moscow.

First, the economy of occupied Crimea had a growing domestic water deficit between 2014 and 2022. The peninsula has always had limited freshwater reserves of its own (Black Sea water is salty and unprocessed, unsuitable for economic use). This problem was solved in the late and post-Soviet period by the North Crimean Canal, which brings river water from Dnipro in southern mainland Ukraine across the Perekop isthmus to the peninsula.

When Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, Ukraine blocked the North Crimean Canal. To keep the economy and infrastructure - including military facilities - running, Russia increasingly depleted the sparse local freshwater resources by 2022. A growing socioeconomic problem arose for the Russian occupation authorities.

Since conquering the peninsula nine years ago, Moscow has not built a single desalination plant in Crimea. The lack of new desalination factories, or even water pipelines from southern Russia, became increasingly threatening. In view of the growing freshwater deficit on the occupied peninsula, Moscow's inaction was telling. The likelihood of a war to capture the North Crimean Canal became more likely with each passing year. In the spring of 2022, Moscow solved its infrastructure problem until further notice by militarily capturing and reopening the canal.

Only partial restoration of Ukrainian territorial integrity, as many observers are advising today, would lead to a second Ukrainian closure of the canal. This would restore the problematic situation from 2014 to 2022 for Russia's continued occupation of the peninsula. Moscow, in turn, would face a fundamental infrastructure problem.

A second challenge of Russian-occupied Crimea between 2014 and 2022 was the lack of a land connection to Russia. To be sure, the rapid construction and opening of the Kerch Bridge in 2019 partially addressed this problem. However, the transport viaduct across the Kerch Strait only partially eliminated the geo-economic problem of the annexed peninsula. Russian institutions, businesses, and citizens could not use the southern Ukrainian mainland to transport goods and people to and from Crimea.

The third problem of Russian-conquered Crimea is its precarious status in strategic terms. Crimea was and is far away from Russia. It belongs geographically and historically to Ukraine. Throughout its pre-Soviet, Soviet, and post-Soviet history, the peninsula was administratively connected almost continuously to what is now mainland Ukraine. This was the case in the Crimean Khanate (before 1783), the Tsarist Empire (1802-1917), the Soviet Empire (1954-1991), and the Ukrainian state (1991-2014).

Prior to its capture by Catherine the Great, the Crimean Khanate included what is now the Ukrainian mainland north of the peninsula. During the Tsarist period, Crimea was part of the Taurida Governorate, which united the peninsula with the southern Ukrainian mainland region and population. For most of its Soviet history, Crimea was part of the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic; its temporary status as an exclave of the Russian Soviet Socialist Federation from 1922 to 1954 was an administrative-historical aberration. When Ukraine gained its independence, the Black Sea peninsula became the Autonomous Republic of Crimea within the new Ukrainian state.

After conquering the peninsula in 2014, Moscow attempted to counter Crimea's fundamental geological, socioeconomic, and administrative-historical constitution. But it succeeded only incompletely until 2022. Only the large-scale Russian invasion provisionally restored the administrative link with the Ukrainian mainland. If, in the course of a partial restitution of Ukrainian sovereignty, Crimea were to be politically separated from the Ukrainian mainland once again, the precarious situation in Crimea would be further aggravated.

A fourth challenge to a permanently Russian-occupied Crimea would be that the international repercussions of the annexation would remain. Crimea is a sanctioned and isolated region. Since 2014, it has been largely cut off from foreign trade, foreign investors, non-Russian tourism, and global cultural and scientific exchanges. It is not recognized as Russian territory by most countries in the world and remains Ukrainian under international law. The occupied peninsula has developed its own rather repressive political, social, and cultural life.

From 2014 to 2022, it was also in a security no-man's land between the Russian Federation and the Ukrainian heartland. Russia's military conquest and subsequent annexation of southeastern mainland Ukraine in 2022 was intended to mitigate these geostrategic problems of occupied Crimea. Once the Ukrainian mainland areas north of the occupied peninsula are liberated, Crimea's international isolation is also likely to increase again. The Kremlin is likely to be thrown back into the 2014 situation in its efforts to integrate the annexed peninsula into the Russian state and international exchanges.

Upgrading Crimea's geo-economic and geopolitical position as part of the Novorossiya (New Russia) project was one reason for Moscow's attack in 2022. Making the peninsula one of five annexed, interconnected Ukrainian regions aimed to reduce Crimea's isolation and vulnerability as a Russian-occupied exclave since 2014. A return of the Ukrainian mainland territories annexed in 2022 could possibly be acceptable to the Russian population. However, without Russian control of southeastern mainland Ukraine, integration of a continued occupied Crimea into the Russian Federation and economy, as attempted between 2014 and 2022, remains a costly and uncertain endeavor.

Western considerations of a seemingly pragmatic separation of the goal of returning Russian-occupied Ukrainian mainland territories to Kyiv control from the task of reversing the Crimean annexation may be well-intentioned. But they not only ignore Ukrainian wishes and principles of international law and the European security order. They also underestimate the high costs and risks of implementing this plan. The price of occupation is likely to be so high that the Russians may consider reversing it.

For there to be sustainable stabilization in the region, the West should support Kiev in liberating all occupied Ukrainian regions, including Crimea, with all the means at its disposal.



Retaking its territory on Crimea is without alternative for the Ukraine.

[August]

without destroying the city is very hard!! :k_confused:


Pretty much impossible given that the Bakmut is already in complete ruins.

[Jimbuna]

Pretty much impossible given that the Bakmut is already in complete ruins.

True that :yep:

[Dargo]

Ukraine claims 20 square kilometers of territory gain at Bakhmut: 'Russians trapped like rats'
Ukrainian counterattacks in Bakhmut have not missed their mark. The region can be actively defended, and the Russians are trapped like "rats," says Oleksandr Syrsky, the commander of Ukrainian ground forces. According to Ukraine, 20 square kilometers of territory have been regained in recent days. "The advance of our troops towards Bakhmut is the first success after our offensive actions," the 57-year-old colonel-general said in a statement yesterday. Visiting the front near Bakhmut this morning, he added that "the Wagner mercenaries crawled like rats in a trap". Ukrainian troops were able to switch to successful counterattacks near the eastern Ukrainian town through "active defense". "The enemy has more resources, but we disrupt their plans," Syrskyi explained. At that, he honored several soldiers with medals. In recent days, several Ukrainian army units north and southwest of Bakhmut have effectively pushed back Russian troops. According to Hanna Maliar, deputy defense minister, this involves a total of about 20 square kilometers of ground gains, and heavy fighting continues.

The main supply route to the besieged eastern Ukrainian city, via the village of Chromove, has already been re-secured more effectively, according to British army experts. This is stated in the British Ministry of Defense's daily intelligence report on Tuesday. The road south of Bakhmut, near Ivanivske, is also once again firmly in Ukrainian hands. The Donets-Donbask canal between Chasiv Yar and Klishchiivka has now become a natural dividing line between Ukrainian and Russian forces. But Kiev also warned that the situation in Bakhmut remains difficult and that Moscow has not changed its aim to capture the city. In the city itself, Wagner forces are advancing westward house by house and apartment block by apartment block. Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin also claimed on Tuesday that his mercenaries have again made progress in capturing the last streets in the city centre. Moreover, the Russian army has brought reinforcements to the centre, and also sent elite assault troops to the outskirts of the city to try to stabilize its flanks. According to Maliar, the Russians are "completely laying waste to the city with artillery".

"The fact that the defense of Bakhmut has been going on for so many months, and we are making progress in certain places, is thanks to the strength of our fighters, and the professionalism of the command," Maliar added. "Remember that the enemy has a great quantitative advantage, both in terms of men and weapons. Yet, thanks to the actions of our troops, he has not yet been able to push through his plans for Bakhmut since the summer." https://www.demorgen.be/snelnieuws/oekraine-claimt-20-vierkante-kilometer-terreinwinst-bij-bachmoet-russen-als-ratten-in-de-val-gelopen~be219c3c/

[Jimbuna]

It is being reported today that Russia’s war machine has reached a “turning point” in its invasion of Ukraine, that there was clear evidence that key Russian weapons and components were now running out.

[Moonlight]

^The western media have been spreading that nonsense since this russian 'special military operation' started, I'll believe it when the guns go silent.

[Skybird]

A US official told CNN that the latest atacks my Russia damaged one Patriot battery, not destroying it but damaging it.

Russia claims to have intercepted (=destroyed) a Storm Shadow. No external confirmation for this latest trophy Russia claims. They already have claimed so many trophies, so this news is possible, but - well, unconfirmed.



Two days ago a Ukrainian source told German radio that the Iris-T systems so far had a success rate of 100%. If true - that's what one calls a golden bullet.

[Skybird]

Bubble-Olaf babbles again from inside his bubble. He just said that the bridges to the other Russia (beyond Putin, he probably means) must be maintained.

He seems to hallucinate and sees things that are not there. But it shows that the war has not really changed his illusions about Russia. In his defence, Germany has illusions about Russia sinc eover one hunbdred years at least.



Beware the Germans.

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Eo3ZyZgCVAk

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Aownt1BxjJc

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zqHiITJYphw

[Skybird]

I just read a thought by a war economist who said the Storm shadows provide Ukriane with a Crimea paradoxon. Now that they may have or may be close to the ability to strike the Kerch bridge as well as striking most of Crimea' surface, it may be that they will NOT strike the bridges. Because if they are successful in isolating Crimea by interrupting the northern land connection and then attack Crimea and the Russians want to flee - they couldn't and would need to fight and that means the Ukrainians would need to fight them down. I may be better to leave them one exit route so that they can evacuate Crimea and saving both sides the fight.

As I understand it, the bridge is two-tracked, one car bridge and one train bridge. For logistical support to the military I strongly assume the train bridge is far more important, maybe they will bomb the train bridge and leave only the road bridge open. If the missiles can be programmed to strike with such accuracy to target just the one and not the other bridge, that is, they are parallel and very close to each other, practically one bridge.


Meanwhile the Pentagon has confirmed that the claimed damaged Patriot system indeed has received damage, but insists it still is operational. The russians however insist on that the radar system and several missile batteries had been taken out. Flip a coin to see who is right.

[Dargo]

I just read a thought by a war economist who said the Storm shadows provide Ukriane with a Crimea paradoxon. Now that they may have or may be close to the ability to strike the Kerch bridge as well as striking most of Crimea' surface, it may be that they will NOT strike the bridges. Because if they are successful in isolating Crimea by interrupting the northern land connection and then attack Crimea and the Russians want to flee - they couldn't and would need to fight and that means the Ukrainians would need to fight them down. I may be better to leave them one exit route so that they can evacuate Crimea and saving both sides the fight.

As I understand it, the bridge is two-tracked, one car bridge and one train bridge. For logistical support to the military I strongly assume the train bridge is far more important, maybe they will bomb the train bridge and leave only the road bridge open. If the missiles can be programmed to strike with such accuracy to target just the one and not the other bridge, that is, they are parallel and very close to each other, practically one bridge.


Meanwhile the Pentagon has confirmed that the claimed damaged Patriot system indeed has received damage, but insists it still is operational. The russians however insist on that the radar system and several missile batteries had been taken out. Flip a coin to see who is right.Do not swallow bait offered by the enemy. Do not interfere with an army that is returning home. When you surround an army, leave an outlet free. Do not press a desperate foe too hard. Such is the art of warfare.Russian also says they destroyed 5 Patriot systems launchers with one attack. https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/05/17/7402681/

[Skybird]

Related.

No end to Norwegian naivety: Norway is failing to protect against Russian North Sea incursions. The European North Sea region is vitally important for Moscow. The Russian fleet harbors its strategic nuclear weapons there. On the Norwegian side, the sea is dotted with energy production facilities. The confrontation between the West and Russia is intensifying.

https://www.nzz.ch/english/norway-confrontation-with-russia-intensifies-in-north-sea-ld.1738350

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xk5PY-jBStw

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eCdJRG2lgNA

[Jimbuna]

I should imagine Africa in particular as well as a few other countries are breathing a sigh of relief.

An agreement allowing Ukraine to export millions of tonnes of grain through the Black Sea despite the ongoing conflict with Russia has been extended.

The two-month extension, negotiated by the United Nations and Turkey, was announced a day before the previous deal was due to expire.

There had been concerns that Russia could pull out of the pact.

It was first agreed last July following fears of global food shortages as a result of the war in Ukraine.

The agreement has been renewed several times since then, despite Russia's criticism of Western sanctions against its agricultural sector.

Ukraine is one of the world's top producers of grain, but its access to ports in the Black Sea was initially blocked by Russian warships following the invasion in February last year.

On Wednesday Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said : "With the efforts of our country, the support of our Russian friends, the contribution of our Ukrainian friends, it was decided to extend the Black Sea grain deal for two more months."

More than 30m tonnes of grain have left Ukraine under the deal - mostly going to the world's poorest countries.

Moscow wants Russian producers to be able to export more food and fertiliser to the rest of the world, but says sanctions are preventing them.

Vassily Nebenzia, Russia's ambassador to the UN, told reporters on Wednesday: "We still do not lose hope that the problems that we are raising will be sorted out. The sooner the better."

Russia briefly withdrew from the deal in November last year, accusing Ukraine of attacking its fleet in the Crimea - but it re-joined a few days later.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65627175

[Skybird]

Kyiv and the Ukrainian army spread plenty of confusion. And maybe that confusion actually IS the offensive.

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/05/18/europe/ukraine-counteroffensive-signs-russia-intl-cmd/index.html

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FmstGTAU-RA

[Skybird]

The U.S. has apparently signaled to its European allies in recent weeks that it would allow exports of F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine. This is what several people familiar with the issue told CNN.

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TIhYNFn_-cY

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IEQhUWQTPXw

[Catfish]

"Deutsche Welle" about the results of price caps on russian oil

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ys9UAHYuHaA

[Rockstar]

Keep in mind this article is filled with more nameless anonymous sources.

FOREIGN POLICY

Ukraine could join ranks of ‘frozen’ conflicts, U.S. officials say
How Ukraine could become the next South Korea.

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/05/18/ukraine-russia-south-korea-00097563

By NAHAL TOOSI
05/18/2023 04:30 AM EDT

U.S. officials are planning for the growing possibility that the Russia-Ukraine war will turn into a frozen conflict that lasts many years — perhaps decades — and joins the ranks of similar lengthy face-offs in the Korean peninsula, South Asia and beyond.

The options discussed within the Biden administration for a long-term “freeze” include where to set potential lines that Ukraine and Russia would agree not to cross, but which would not have to be official borders. The discussions — while provisional — have taken place across various U.S. agencies and in the White House.

It’s a scenario that may prove the most realistic long-term outcome given that neither Kyiv nor Moscow appear inclined to ever admit defeat. It’s also becoming increasingly likely amid the growing sense within the administration that an upcoming Ukrainian counteroffensive won’t deal a mortal blow to Russia.

A frozen conflict — in which fighting pauses but neither side is declared the victor nor do they agree that the war is officially over — also could be a politically palatable long-term result for the United States and other countries backing Ukraine.

It would mean the number of military clashes would fall, the costs of supporting Kyiv also likely would drop, and public attention to the war would wane.

“We are planning for the long term, whether it looks frozen or thawed,” said a U.S. official familiar with the Biden administration’s discussions on Ukraine. The official said such planning is a growing focus of the administration, whereas in past months “it was all about the urgent and short-term.”

Two other U.S. officials and a former Biden administration official confirmed that an extended freeze in fighting is one possibility for which the U.S. is preparing. U.S. officials also are thinking through the long-term security ties Washington will have with Kyiv, as well as Ukraine’s relationship with the NATO military alliance.

“There’s a school of thought that says, ‘Oh, the Ukrainians have to have [the city of] Mariupol and Azov Sea access.’ There’s others less hung up about the placement of the lines as long as Ukraine is secure going into the future,” the former administration official said, describing the internal conversations.

Such discussions remain in early stages, with the U.S. officials stressing that the war will remain hot for quite some time and that the Biden administration is intent on providing Ukraine with the weapons and support it needs to push the Russians out of as much territory as possible.

Still, even the suggestion of such planning could undermine Ukrainian leaders’ confidence in America’s continued commitment to their cause, especially given agitation among some Republicans to lessen support for Kyiv.

A fifth person, a senior Biden administration official speaking on behalf of the White House, said an array of contingency plans are being weighed, but the situation is fluid and the only safe prediction is that Russia will not conquer Ukraine. Like others interviewed, the official was granted anonymity to describe sensitive issues.

While many U.S. officials avoid publicly talking about how the Russia-Ukraine conflict will evolve, Joint Chiefs Chair Gen. Mark Milley has repeatedly predicted that it will end in negotiations, not a military victory for either side.

And the makeup of recent military aid packages to Ukraine reflects the Biden administration’s shift to a longer-term strategy, a Defense Department official said.

The amount of equipment sent directly from existing U.S. stockpiles has steadily diminished over the past few months, while the packages of aid used to purchase new weapons from industry — a process that can take months to years — has increased.

The Biden administration recently transferred $300 million worth of weapons from existing U.S. stockpiles, primarily ammunition, while providing $1.2 billion to purchase more complex weapons, such as air defenses, from industry.

At the moment, Ukraine is preparing a counteroffensive against Russia, although the timing remains unclear. In recent days, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has suggested the counteroffensive would be delayed because Ukraine still needed more weapons from its Western partners, while also saying “the first important steps will be taken soon.”

U.S. officials expect fighting to continue even after the counteroffensive.

In the medium-term, many expect a stalemate, during which fighting continues but neither side gains much ground, or a war of attrition, which involves both sides trying to wreak massive losses of personnel and equipment on the other in the hopes the adversary will collapse.

How Ukraine and Russia perform depends on sometimes uncontrollable factors ranging from air superiority to who’s in charge at the Kremlin.

“Once you get past few months or a year, these wars tend to last years,” said Benjamin Jensen of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, who has analyzed the historical data. “Even with the most wildly successful Ukraine counteroffensive, you could still be seeing yourself fighting this time next year.”

None of the administration officials who spoke to POLITICO would offer specifics about how the U.S. would handle a years-long war or describe the exact depth of planning for a frozen conflict — information that’s largely classified. One U.S. official stressed that the administration has always planned for both long-term and short-term possibilities.

The longer the fight drags on, the more likely Russia and Ukraine will feel international and domestic pressure to negotiate a ceasefire, an armistice or another legal mechanism to halt, if not officially end, the war.

Some U.S. officials and analysts say one rough model could be the Korean War. Active fighting in that conflict ended with an armistice in 1953, but, even 70 years later, the war has not been formally declared over.

“A Korea-style stoppage is certainly something that’s been discussed by experts and analysts in and out of government” when it comes to Ukraine, the former Biden administration official said. “It’s plausible, because neither side would need to recognize any new borders and the only thing that would have to be agreed is to stop shooting along a set line.” (The negotiations for the Korea armistice lasted two years.)

Other potentially relevant examples include the 2008 dispute between Georgia and Russia over two provinces; the more than 70-year-old India-Pakistan face-off over the Kashmir region, a period that includes three wars separated by long cold stretches; and arguably even segments of the Russia-Ukraine conflict between 2014 and 2022, waged over parts of Ukraine’s east and its Crimea region.

Such halted wars occasionally resume: A 1994 ceasefire between Azerbaijan and Armenia over the Nagorno-Karabakh region held — though not perfectly — until heavy fighting broke the peace in 2020. The two countries are now trying to negotiate.

Western involvement in each case also varies. The United States fought in the Korean War and still has thousands of troops in South Korea — a key difference with Ukraine, where American forces are not fighting. But Washington has had little role in other conflicts, such as Kashmir.

A former U.S. intelligence official who handled Russia-related matters said Biden aides appear to be more willing these days to discuss long-term security guarantees for Ukraine — another sign they are thinking well past the coming Ukrainian counteroffensive.

Ukraine wants to join NATO, and the military alliance’s secretary-general has said its members agree that eventually it will.

The senior Biden administration official confirmed that U.S. officials are talking to the Ukrainians about the nature of the relationship in the future. “We want a Ukraine that can defend itself and deter future attacks,” the official said, stressing that Washington will not pressure Ukraine to enter negotiations against its will.

If Ukraine’s NATO membership bid stalls, such guarantees could range from a NATO-style Article 5 mutual defense deal to Israel-style arms deals with Ukraine as a deterrent against Russia.

At a minimum, some current and former U.S. officials say, Ukraine’s military must get special attention. That could include making sure Ukraine’s weapons and equipment are compatible with those of NATO countries and conducting joint training, even if Kyiv isn’t in the military alliance.

Analysts and officials warned against assuming that a frozen conflict translates to geopolitical stability or less suffering among civilians caught in the disputed territories. The Korean peninsula and India-Pakistan are both now nuclear flashpoints as a result of decisions made by governments involved in the decades since the fights first began.

Yuriy Sak, an adviser to Ukraine’s defense minister, said one reason Kyiv is constantly urging its Western partners to send more weapons and other aid is precisely because it wants to end the war quickly, not find itself in an endless face-off.

Even if active fighting ceases, he said, “we will continue to live in a world in which on a daily basis, we have nuclear blackmail. On a daily basis, we have the risk of a global food crisis. On a daily basis, we are witnesses to atrocities and war crimes.”

The Russian embassy in Washington did not respond to a request for comment.

U.S. officials stress that they are trying to avoid black-and-white thinking as they map out the ways the Russia-Ukraine war can go. It’s possible, after all, that the conflict will wind up somewhere in between an active war and a chilled standoff.

Jensen said that supporting Kyiv more long-term will mean thinking beyond immediate weapons needs and implementing plans to man, train and equip entire formations, as well as developing a relevant military doctrine.

Other questions to consider in such circumstances include whether it is worth bringing in a multinational peacekeeping force.

If active armed conflict ceases, the costs to the United States and other Ukrainian partners likely will fall over time. “It’s cheaper to arm a country that isn’t expending the weapons every day,” the former Biden administration official said.

The former official speculated that the odds that a ceasefire would hold is higher than from 2014 to 2022 — when Russia seized Crimea and sowed chaos in parts of Ukraine’s east— because professional militaries are fully involved on both sides, as opposed to “separatists” backed by Russia.

But the current war also has drawn in mercenary forces such as Russia’s Wagner Group, which could prove hard to tame.

If a ceasefire or other type of stoppage holds long enough, attention from the public to the war also is likely to fade. That could ease political pressure on Western capitals from critics of the effort to help Kyiv. But it could also mean less of a push from those capitals to resolve the conflict once and for all.

U.S. and European officials argued that it would be unwise to believe the threat from Russia to Ukraine will fade anytime soon — even if the fighting is halted for a long period or Putin exits the scene.

“Conflict and potential for a renewed attack will not disappear, perhaps in decades,” said a European official familiar with Ukraine-related discussions.

Lara Seligman contributed to this report.

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i6mdZZFKHiA

[Skybird]

Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Resnikov has spoken out about the heavy fighting between Russian and Ukrainian troops in the town of Bachmut, according to Ukraine's RBC news agency. "The Russians are losing a whole battalion or thereabouts every day there, according to our estimates," RBC quoted the minister as saying. In total, Russia has 70,000 soldiers killed or wounded since the beginning of the fighting around Bachmut, he said.


According to Resnikov, by defending Bachmut, the Ukrainian military is fulfilling another critical task: significantly weakening the Russian army. This prevents Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin's troops from launching offensive actions in other directions.


To assess the latter claim, one would need to know how much it costs Ukraine to inflict these losses on Russia, and how big Ukraine's own losses are. I would say in the light of Russia' huge numerical superiority and possible reserves and huge ammo supplies for artillery, that loss ratio between both sides would need to be in Ukraine's favour by several factors to make the battle for a field of ruins a battle worthwhile for Ukraine. Obviously they seem to think this is the case.

[Jimbuna]

To assess the latter claim, one would need to know how much it costs Ukraine to inflict these losses on Russia, and how big Ukraine's own losses are. I would say in the light of Russia' huge numerical superiority and possible reserves and huge ammo supplies for artillery, that loss ratio between both sides would need to be in Ukraine's favour by several factors to make the battle for a field of ruins a battle worthwhile for Ukraine. Obviously they seem to think this is the case.

Precisely :yep:

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PGeBtDqGcNc

[mapuc]

This news came in about an hour ago.

Denmark together with Britain, Germany and the Netherlands shall start to train Ukrainian pilots in flying the F-16.

The news didn't say which version they would get and be trained in.

Markus

[Dargo]

This news came in about an hour ago.

Denmark together with Britain, Germany and the Netherlands shall start to train Ukrainian pilots in flying the F-16.

The news didn't say which version they would get and be trained in.

MarkusThe F-16 Fighting Falcon MLU the Netherlands use will go out of service in a year (66) think those will be given to Ukraine and training is in simulators.

[mapuc]

The F-16 Fighting Falcon MLU the Netherlands use will go out of service in a year (66) think those will be given to Ukraine and training is in simulators.

In a Danish article I read that there was former F-16 fighter pilot who would fly their former fighter jet in Ukraine freely.

In the article they talked with some American fighter pilot.

(Can have remembered wrong)

I don't know how long it will take to train them in flying the F-16. I guess a couple of month or so.

Markus

[Dargo]

In a Danish article I read that there was former F-16 fighter pilot who would fly their former fighter jet in Ukraine freely.

In the article they talked with some American fighter pilot.

(Can have remembered wrong)

I don't know how long it will take to train them in flying the F-16. I guess a couple of month or so.

MarkusNo former F-16 pilot operates an F-16 in Ukraine the U.S will not allow that neither will the Netherlands. Of those 66 planes of the 213 we had of which operational aircraft, 11 are stationed in the US. That is for training new pilots on the F-16: that process should continue for now. It is expected that as the JSF comes in, fewer and fewer aircraft will be needed for training on the F-16. Those aircraft will therefore come back or be disposed of (or go to Ukraine). In practice, the aircraft in the logistical reserve cannot all go airborne immediately. Sometimes, due to shortages, the air force takes parts from one or more of these aircraft that were (temporarily) grounded anyway. This is referred to as 'technical shortage shifting'. As a result, more and more parts are missing in these aircraft. That's why the U.S. gives permission, it will be at least 2 years before any F-16s go to Ukraine.

[mapuc]

^ I know there isn't any F-16 or volunteers flying them.

From the article it also said that Zelenskyy only need to call and he, the American pilot, would come when they got these F-16.

2 years I thought it would take lesser then these 2 years

Markus

[Dargo]

^ I know there isn't any F-16 or volunteers flying them.

From the article it also said that Zelenskyy only need to call and he, the American pilot, would come when they got these F-16.

2 years I thought it would take lesser then these 2 years

MarkusWe do not have the planes ready as of now they need to be out of operational service than made ready to send them this can not be done in months this is not meant to be used in this offensive like a lot of Ukraine support that is promised this year. Like Russia, we have it but that not say it is operational at the moment, and we are not giving operational material in case of...

[ET2SN]

Marcus, it still takes 10-15 hours of ground maintenance for each hour in the air. Don't focus on the pilots, focus on the ground crews and the repair parts. The ground crews will need a lot of training while they are currently fighting a war.

:03:

[mapuc]

Marcus, it still takes 10-15 hours of ground maintenance for each hour in the air. Don't focus on the pilots, focus on the ground crews and the repair parts. The ground crews will need a lot of training while they are currently fighting a war.

:03:

You're right I forgot all about the ground crew and the ammo that comes with these fighter jets.

Markus

[Skybird]

https://www-fr-de.translate.goog/politik/ukraine-krieg-gegenoffensive-waffenlieferungen-waffen-munition-produktion-engpass-industrie-92289692.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp


Before the start of the Ukraine war, the U.S. was producing 14,500 artillery rounds per month, while EU production was at a roughly comparable level. U.S. production has already been increased to 20,000 rounds per month since the war began, and investments have also been made to expand capacity to reach 90,000 rounds per month, the report added. By comparison, the Ukrainian army fired 180,000 artillery rounds per month last year and currently consumes about 90,000 to 140,000 rounds per month, according to Watling, an expert.

Russia itself increased its defense spending by 282 percent in January and February of this year compared to the same period in 2021, according to its own data, and Moscow now produces 2.5 million artillery shells per year, up from 1.7 million before the war. "Russia has the ability to mobilize its own economy to support its armed forces and control its own destiny in a way that Ukraine cannot," former Gen. Barrons said. "The critical weakness" of Ukraine "is its dependence on Western goods and industry."
(...)
"You don't have to be much of a military analyst to realize that European countries that are making major investments in artillery production 13 months into the war are a little late to the game," Michael Kofman, director of the Russia Studies Program at the Center for Naval Analyses, acknowledged to the U.S. newspaper.
So far the US, Norway, the UK and France have placed significant new orders for ammo and new material. Germany still has not (only very minor almost alibi orders), and is still busy with itself. Nor have the other NATO members. Bubble-Olaf recently said one should maintain the briodges to the "other Russia". Read between the lines and you know where he wants the journey to head.

[Dargo]

Marcus, it still takes 10-15 hours of ground maintenance for each hour in the air. Don't focus on the pilots, focus on the ground crews and the repair parts. The ground crews will need a lot of training while they are currently fighting a war.

:03:In 2013, the Dutch defense minister decided on further reductions: of the 68 remaining aircraft, only 61 would be counted as operational; the rest would henceforth count as logistics reserves. The aircraft would retain their registration and could be deployed, if necessary. One of the goals of this decision was to reduce the number of flight hours per F-16 aircraft that the aircraft would exhibit. Thus, it was hoped to reduce the maintenance costs of this aging aircraft. With 68 aircraft, the air force would perform the work of 61 aircraft. The F-16 was going to fly 'part-time'. These F-!6 planes are harder to maintain/fly than the Mig-29, also they will not be the game changer in this war.

[ET2SN]

Long-term, I think the F-16 is right for Ukraine.

The problem is that right now is a lot more important.

[Skybird]

A decisive factor will be how many Vipers Ukraine actually gets - not before end of this year. I already said last winter I could not imagine them to get fighters in 2023, not before very late in 2023 at least.


Training pilots on them might be the smaller problem. Training the maintenance crews and establishing the complex logistics network for them - that is the real challenge, me thinks. However, I am quite confident the Ukrainians will master this challenge, too. Thats why I, for a change, agree with the german government that the Germans will not deliver fighters, because we only have the Eurofighter (and not even in excessive numbers), and that would mean to double the logistics trouble for Ukraine.

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6IoY0-Lv_c4

[Jimbuna]

Total combat losses of Russian Federation since beginning of war - about 202,430 people (+670 per day), 3,781 tanks, 3,229 artillery systems, 7,382 armored vehicles. INFOGRAPHICS

As of the morning of 20 May 2023, the losses of the Russian occupiers are approximately 202,430 people.

tanks - 3781 (+4) units,

armoured combat vehicles - 7382 (+5) units,

artillery systems - 3,229 (+19) units,

MLRS - 564 (+0) units,

air defence systems - 325 (+6) units,

aircraft - 308 (+0) units,

helicopters - 294 (+0) units,

Operational and tactical UAVs - 2801 (+32),

cruise missiles - 1011 (+0),

ships/boats - 18 (+0) units,

motor vehicles and tankers - 6103 (+20) units,

special equipment - 423 (+4). Source: https://censor.net/en/n3419592

[Skybird]

It gets reported that Russia moves "massive" reinforcements to Bakhmut.


Maybe that means that things are working the way Ukraine planned them to be. These troops obviously must come for somewhre - somewhere where they now are missing.



Russia floods fields in the vicinity of Saporischschja.

[Dargo]

A decisive factor will be how many Vipers Ukraine actually gets - not before end of this year. I already said last winter I could not imagine them to get fighters in 2023, not before very late in 2023 at least.


Training pilots on them might be the smaller problem. Training the maintenance crews and establishing the complex logistics network for them - that is the real challenge, me thinks. However, I am quite confident the Ukrainians will master this challenge, too. Thats why I, for a change, agree with the german government that the Germans will not deliver fighters, because we only have the Eurofighter (and not even in excessive numbers), and that would mean to double the logistics trouble for Ukraine.In March, two Ukrainian pilots were tested at a US airbase in Arizona for three weeks to see how the retraining to use fighter aircraft unknown to them would go. From this, the conclusion would have been that they should be able to fly an F-16 within six months AND use it in war situations, Ukrainian air force commander Serhii Holubtsov said in late March. Although several countries have already offered to train Ukrainian pilots for the F-16, including the Netherlands, Poland and Belgium, as far as we know those trainings have not yet started anywhere. Initially, the Pentagon assumed that such training could take a year and a half.

[Dargo]

It gets reported that Russia moves "massive" reinforcements to Bakhmut.


Maybe that means that things are working the way Ukraine planned them to be. These troops obviously must come for somewhre - somewhere where they now are missing.



Russia floods fields in the vicinity of Saporischschja.The British Armed Forces believe Russia has sent reinforcements to Bakhmut. The Ministry of Defense says the country has "most likely sent several battalions" over the past four days. A battalion consists of hundreds to a thousand soldiers.

According to the UK, reinforcements were sent after the Ukrainian military made some progress around Bakhmut. Moreover, there would be doubts whether the Wagner Group mercenaries would continue to fight. Wagner's boss, Yevgeny Prigozhin, has said in recent days that there is heavy fighting, and it is difficult to take control of the town. Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maljar also spoke of heavy fighting on Friday.

If Russia has indeed sent reinforcements to the city, the British say this shows that Bakhmut is still very important to Moscow. Indeed, just about all Russian military personnel in Ukraine would be needed elsewhere. The capture of Bakhmut would, according to the UK, "allow the Russians to speak of some degree of success in this conflict".

Ukraine's 46th Air Mobile Brigade writes on Telegram that the fall of Bakhmut is imminent. "Today or tomorrow (in principle, the moment is not important) they (the Russians, ed.) will occupy the territory of the city, or rather its ruins." The army unit stresses that that is not the end of the war. "Immediately afterward, they will have to deal with new defenses outside the city and problems on their flanks."

The 46th Air Mobile Brigade is one of the last units defending Ukrainian territory in the town of Bakhmut. The Russian army has been trying to take the town for almost a year, and has now almost completely taken control of it. Over the past week, Ukraine has carried out several successful counterattacks in the Bakhmut area. In response, Russia reportedly sent several battalions to the town for a quick victory.

However, how long it will take for Bakhmut to fall is hard to say. Military bloggers on the hand of mercenary army Wagner, which plays a major role in the Russian side's offensive, claimed yesterday that the city had been taken. The mercenaries' official Telegram account claimed that the Ukrainians still control only 600 square meters of the city

But according to the authoritative think tank Institute for the Study of War, there are "no indications that Ukrainian forces are carrying out a controlled withdrawal from their remaining positions in the city, or that Wagner's attacks threaten to take all remaining Ukrainian positions in the short term."

[mapuc]

What's even more important:

Bakhmut is not of any strategic value-Said by a military expert on Swedish tv some month ago.

When He said those words I recalled what Tom Clancy wrote in his war thriller "Red Storm Rising"

(From memory)
When a war starts none of the combatant knows where the main battle will be.

Markus

[Dargo]

What's even more important:

Bakhmut is not of any strategic value-Said by a military expert on Swedish tv some month ago.

When He said those words I recalled what Tom Clancy wrote in his war thriller "Red Storm Rising"

(From memory)
When a war starts none of the combatant knows where the main battle will be.

MarkusBakhmut has become important, it has only for Ukraine it could destroy Russian offensive, usable reserves and gave Ukraine the time to buildup 20 brigades. The troops are outfitted with some of the best gear Ukraine has been provided. Kyiv has been holding some 20 brigades back from the fighting and training them to break through Russian lines and hold any ground taken. The hope in Kyiv is that when its offensive begins, Russian forces will be depleted from their assault on Bakhmut, while tens of thousands of Ukrainian troops will be fresh and well-equipped with Western battle tanks and other material. https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-races-to-forge-new-army-ahead-of-offensive-aec3a1f2?st=3wwp8yx25v7n0px&reflink=article_copyURL_share

[Dargo]

Five questions on what Ukraine wants to do with Western F-16s
The West's delivery of F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine seems imminent. The United States has already given the green light to train the pilots, and several European countries want to supply the aircraft. According to Russia, this puts the West at "colossal risk". How should these words be interpreted, and what does this mean for the course of the war?

What about the deliveries?
US security adviser Jake Sullivan said today that the US is consulting with its allies on when F-16s will be delivered to Ukraine. At a press briefing following a consultation between G7 countries in Japan, he responded to questions from journalists about President Biden's decision to allow Ukrainian pilots to train with US fighter jets. "As the training unfolds in the coming months, we will work with our allies to determine when aircraft will be delivered, who will deliver them and how many," Sullivan said.

The US approval of F-16 training weighs heavily within the debate over the delivery of the aircraft to Ukraine. A growing group of European countries, including the Netherlands and the UK, are sympathetic to such deliveries, but it cannot happen without US permission. With the training of Ukrainian pilots, that permission seems very close. "Otherwise, this training also makes little sense," says professor of war studies Frans Osinga. "Ukraine is also said to have already earmarked pilots to form two to four squadrons." This would then involve dozens of aircraft.

If it really comes to delivery, when can the devices be deployed?
Training a pilot does still take time, Osinga said. "The Pentagon released a report earlier that a pilot should be able to deploy an F-16 meaningfully within four months. That is, the aircraft can be piloted and deployed as a weapon system." In addition, training is needed for logistics and maintenance, Osinga says. "A lot of time goes into that, too. Estimates range from four to six months, but Ukraine has shown itself to master new systems quickly." So the F-16s cannot be used for a quick Ukrainian offensive. "This is a long-term addition to the armory," says Osinga. "But then again, the war is not over in the coming months."

How important are the planes to Ukraine?
The aircraft are especially important to provide support to ground troops, says former Netherlands Army Commander Mart de Kruif. "You have to give the troops on the ground the freedom to act. So that they can move forward without being afraid of attacks from Russian aircraft." Osinga says the same. "The F-16s should therefore also be seen as an additional weapon for air defense. If Ukraine has F-16s, it is not a game changer. The F-16 has better radar and longer range than the Sukhoi and MiG aircraft Ukraine has now. Another nice touch is that there are plenty of spare parts available, and manufacturer Lockheed Martin is still making new aircraft."

If the F-16s are equipped with air missiles, they could potentially shoot down Russian aircraft and keep them away from the front, Osinga said. Russia is bombarding Ukraine with cruise missiles and drones. While these are often intercepted, Ukraine does fear running out of its stock of anti-aircraft artillery. "F-16s can play a role in that," the professor explained. "Zelensky also said earlier: 'Give me wings for freedom'."

How many aircraft does the Netherlands have, and can we just do without them?
Of the 213 F-16s the Netherlands had in the early 1990s, 42 remain today. Of those 42, the Netherlands has 24 in active service. The remaining 18 are in hangars. According to De Kruif, it remains to be seen how many of those 18 aircraft are good enough to be used. "It may be that parts are missing or that they need to be repaired. That also takes time, so the aircraft cannot be delivered in the short term anyway."

In addition, the number of aircraft to be delivered also depends on how many more F-35 aircraft the Netherlands receives in the coming years. The intention is that these Joint Strike Fighters will all replace the current F-16s. And the possible delivery of F-16 is done in a coalition with Denmark, Belgium and the UK. In total, those countries together with the Netherlands could supply dozens of aircraft, according to De Kruijf. But how many will be for the Netherlands' account is not clear.

How does Russia respond?
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Groeshko called the possible delivery of the fighter jets "a colossal risk" for Western countries, Russian state news agency Tass reported. "We see that Western countries are still clinging to the escalation scenario. This leads to huge risks," Groeshko said. "In any case, this is taken into account in all our plans, and we have all the means at our disposal to achieve the set goals."

According to Osinga, those words need not instill fear. "Every time a delivery of a weapon system has been announced, Russia has played this rhetorical card. But every time it has led to no escalation. What could Russia escalate now? The country deliberately avoids direct confrontation with NATO, it already has enough problems with Ukraine itself."

https://nos.nl/artikel/2475795-vijf-vragen-over-wat-oekraine-met-westerse-f-16-s-wil-doen

[Exocet25fr]

Is it True ?

https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20230520-%F0%9F%94%B4-live-zelensky-heads-to-g7-in-japan-as-ukraine-wins-access-to-f-16s

[Dargo]

Is it True ?

https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20230520-%F0%9F%94%B4-live-zelensky-heads-to-g7-in-japan-as-ukraine-wins-access-to-f-16sCould be or Russia will occupy the ruins of bakhmut in the days coming no matter they gone face the next defense line of the Ukrainians to slaughter meat.

[Dargo]

‘Approaching. Move In.’ How Ukraine Changed the Battle for Bakhmut.
Ukrainian soldiers were waiting for just the right moment to attack. Then they received critical intelligence: Russian mercenaries on the other side of the front line outside Bakhmut were about to rotate out and be replaced by other soldiers.

It was time to go. “We all felt the adrenaline,” said an infantry soldier who identified himself by his call sign, Face, in accordance with military protocols.

Ukrainian soldiers were told to get their kits ready, making sure they had plenty of grenades and full clips of ammunition. “We considered the change of shifts to be the enemy’s biggest weakness,” said Col. Andriy Biletsky, the commander of the brigade.

It was the morning of May 6, the beginning of three days of fighting on the outskirts of Bakhmut that has shifted momentum in the fiercest battle of the war. Soldiers from Ukraine’s 3rd Separate Assault Brigade battled with the Russians across forest belts where the trees rose like scorched matchsticks. They stormed trenches littered with the dead. They followed armored personnel carriers across open fields as the two sides exchanged heavy gunfire.

In the maelstrom of explosions, every yard gained felt like a mile, soldiers said.

But when this three-day clash was over, Ukraine had reclaimed a patch of land about 1.8 miles wide and a mile and a half deep just south of the Ivanivske village, outside Bakhmut.

Though the territory captured was small, the Ukrainians have since built on their success, reclaiming more than 12 square miles to the north and south of the city, according to the military. Those gains represent a striking shift in a place where the Ukrainians had been on the back foot for months, and a potential blow to a Russian war effort that had made Bakhmut the primary strategic prize within its grasp.

But even as Ukrainian forces have fought to take back critical areas around Bakhmut, Russian forces have relentlessly worked for months to occupy the city’s center.

On Saturday, Yevgeny V. Prigozhin, the leader of the Wagner paramilitary group, said his mercenaries had seized the remaining ruined blocks of the city itself, blocks they did not already control, a claim the Ukrainians quickly disputed. Even if true, Ukraine’s gains north and south of the city suggest the long battle for Bakhmut would not be over.

Ukrainian and British officials said on Saturday that Moscow was racing to bring in more soldiers to reinforce its lines around the city. Such a redeployment could help Russia reverse recent Ukrainian gains, but it could also benefit Ukraine as it prepares its counteroffensive by weakening Russian forces elsewhere along the front. This account of a three-day clash early this month on the outskirts of Bakhmut is based on an extended interview with Colonel Biletsky near the front, soldiers who took part in the assault, videos those soldiers recorded in real time with body cameras and more extensive videos the brigade released later.

Russian military bloggers have reported on the retreat in this sector, and military analysts have confirmed the location of the battlefield footage.

Colonel Biletsky said dozens of Russians were killed on the last day of the battle alone and more were taken prisoner. His brigade also lost soldiers over the course of three days, he said. Neither Ukraine nor Russia publicly releases precise casualty counts.

The 3rd Separate Assault Brigade, which was formally established in the fall, was dispatched to Bakhmut this winter to help secure the one remaining road into the city, after Russian forces came close to cutting it off.

It is led by Colonel Biletsky, a former ultranationalist politician and the founder of the Azov regiment, a group that was part of Ukraine’s national guard before the war and is now integrated into the country’s military forces, with little or no political bent.

The number of Ukrainian units engaged in fighting around Bakhmut is kept secret for operational security reasons, but the Ukrainian military said that dozens of clashes were now playing out every day with units from a constellation of brigades. The 3rd Separate Assault Brigade said on Thursday that its soldiers had advanced about a half mile further and would continue to try to advance on Friday. No two battles in war are identical. They are shaped by the contours of the land, the strength of the opposing forces, the weapons available, the weather and a host of other factors. The fighting outside Ivanivske offers only a small window into the furious fighting in and around Bakhmut, where Russian forces continue to wage a scorched-earth campaign inside the city limits.

But the three-day battle provides a telling example of how Ukraine hopes to exploit the very public divisions among the three principal Russian forces fighting in Bakhmut: the Wagner private military company, loyal to Yevgeny V. Prigozhin, Chechen militias loyal to Ramzan Kadyrov and the regular army.

It is also a reminder that retaking land from a well-entrenched enemy is a brutal affair fought at close quarters. “You need to understand the cost of this advance,” Hanna Maliar, a deputy defense minister, said on Friday. “It is extremely difficult to carry out combat tasks there, because the enemy has concentrated a huge amount of his efforts.”

Colonel Biletsky dismissed notions that the Russians were poorly equipped as “more TikTok propaganda than reality.”

“The enemy is ready,” he said. “They are well personally equipped, armed, they have means of communication, good armored vehicles and a very good system of unmanned aerial vehicles.” Ukrainian fighters control only a small corner inside the city limits of Bakhmut roughly the size of Central Park, according to Russian and Ukrainian soldiers and officials. They are being attacked in frontal assaults and bombarded with artillery from Russian positions on the high hills flanking the ruins.

The only way to relieve the pressure, Ukrainian officials said, was to drive the Russians from the positions around the city.

“The No. 1 task was to push back the enemy on the flanks of Bakhmut,” Colonel Biletsky said. “We used three types of maneuvers: infiltration, frontal attack and turning movement.”

When Ukrainian commanders noticed the Russians rotating in new units, replacing Wagner mercenary fighters with soldiers from Russia’s 72nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, they decided to try to take the other side by surprise.

“We attack as quickly as possible, immediately trying to advance behind the enemy’s front line,” said Colonel Biletsky.

Before dawn on May 6, unit commanders assembled and were given their orders: Cross a distance of about 500 meters from the Russian front line southwest of the village of Ivanivske to the Russians’ second line of defense. And do it quietly.

This would allow them to avoid the enemy’s principle defensive positions and force the Russians to move their own positions to meet the threat.

To maintain the element of surprise, the Ukrainians decided not to use artillery. Infantry soldiers following armored vehicles moved swiftly to cover the scorched ground, the threat of detection by Russian drones an ever-present risk.

Once Ukrainian soldiers got to the second trench line, the Russians realized what was happening and the fighting was intense and chaotic. Soldiers described having to move quickly to storm trenches, turning corners even as they were unsure what they would find — and often coming face-to-face with the opposing side. They also had to clear out the Russian positions now at their back.

But by the end of the first day, they held the flank.

Then they waited.

Colonel Biletsky said they wanted to make the Russians believe that the small advance on the flank was the goal of the operation, so they did not try to advance on the second day. Instead, the soldiers carried out reconnaissance and artillery attacks aimed at enemy reserves trying to approach.

In the quiet hours, they talked, ate and made sinister jokes.

“Who were you before the war?” one soldier asks another in a video shared by the brigade. “A fireman,” the other soldier replies. “I used to save people, but now I kill them.”

The fighting resumed on the third morning at 5 a.m.

The New York Times viewed video footage that the Ukrainian military said was taken by soldiers in battle that day and confirmed its location. It shows armored vehicles bursting through the first line of defense under a hail of gunfire. Infantry soldiers jump out, firing as they exit the vehicle.

“Go around the left side, you’re the first,” a soldier orders in one video. “Go!”

At this point, soldiers said, the only way to clear out the Russians was to go trench by bloody trench, unsure whether the Russians had fled, were hiding or were still fighting.

“Approaching! Move in!” one soldier shouts as they storm a Russian dugout. Something explodes near the Ukrainians. “Go! Go back!” another soldier yells.

The Ukrainians then approach the Russian dugout again and toss in a grenade, and it goes quiet, according to video footage.

After clearing the first line — a defensive network spread out over an area about two miles across — they had to take out the second line, where even more Russians were positioned, according to soldiers and the commander.

On and on it went like that for hours, they said. Videos taken by Ukrainian soldiers appear to show trenches littered with dead Russian soldiers.

By the end of the third day, they had the surviving Russians surrounded.

“Our guys were yelling at them to surrender,” said the soldier called Face. Some laid down their weapons. Others fled. Still others fought on and were killed.

Face was towing a damaged Ukrainian armored vehicle from the battlefield, smiling as he stopped for coffee a day after the clash ended.

He was most happy that the Ukrainians came away with far fewer soldiers killed.

“According to military doctrine, the army who counterattacks has more casualties,” he said. “But that’s not true. We have the opposite. We have losses, but they have many times more losses.” https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/20/world/europe/ukraine-bakhmut.html?smtyp=cur&smid=tw-nytimesworld

[mapuc]

""We see that Western countries are still clinging to the escalation scenario. This leads to huge risks,"

How many times haven't we heard similar threats from Russia ??

Markus

[Dargo]

""We see that Western countries are still clinging to the escalation scenario. This leads to huge risks,"

How many times haven't we heard similar threats from Russia ??

MarkusThe thinking behind what it means to avoid World War III has evolved, weapons that Washington thought might set off escalation have turned out not to do so.

[Skybird]

they gone face the next defense line of the Ukrainians
The last line, west of Bakhmut. If they can manage to get there. Bakhmut was/is the second of three, and a stronghold in that line.


I think the ukrainians plan differently, they lure the Russian into the city more or less, and bypass them north and south and so surround and encircle the city (the field of ruins, to be more precise) in a pincer manouver. Then the trap snaps.

[mapuc]

I think they have done a masterpiece on the Flank of Bakhmut. Luring the Russian that the offensive, have started there, so they moved several battalion to these flanks.

And the main offensive-happen somewhere else

If so, then they have fooled the Russian again.

Markus

[Jimbuna]

Jets to Ukraine: Crucial questions over supplying F-16s to Kyiv
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65656356

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3KXESbXJ030

[Skybird]

The Ukrainian army is reported to have destroyed ten Russian T-90 tanks at once with a single hit from the Himars missile launcher on Friday night. This was reported by Ukrainian war correspondent Andrei Tsaplienko on his Telegram channel on Friday. The information could not be independently verified at first, but drone images show tanks parked close together.


Tsaplienko, a journalist from Kharkiv, shared the relevant images on his Telegram channel on Friday. According to him, several tanks were visible in the aerial photos, and in one detail alone there are eight suspected T-90s parked relatively close to each other. "It is reported that a company of Russian T-90 tanks, up to ten tanks, was destroyed by a Himars hit at night," the journalist wrote in response.


[Frankfurter Rundschau]

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=89Vlt4Qe7HU

[Jimbuna]

The band then played 'Believe it if you like'

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russian President Vladimir Putin on Sunday congratulated the Wagner mercenary force and the Russian army for what he called the "liberation" of the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut, which Russia calls by its Soviet-era name of Artyomovsk.

In a statement published on the Kremlin website, Putin said that the battle - the longest and bloodiest of the 15-month war - had ended in a Russian victory, and that all those who had excelled in it on Moscow's side would be given state awards.

"The Head of State congratulated Wagner's assault groups, as well as all members of the units of the Russian Armed Forces who provided them with the necessary support and cover on their flanks, on the completion of the operation to liberate Artyomovsk (Bakhmut)," the statement said.

"All those who distinguished themselves will be presented with state awards," it said.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/putin-says-battle-for-bakhmut-is-over-thanks-wagner-mercenaries-and-russian-army/ar-AA1bsQPw?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=a8b98b96c92b425f968a2d51855f2fed&ei=30

[Skybird]

Putin takes revenge. Three more rocket scientists who worked on the developement of the Kinzhal, have been arrested.


My sympathy is limited. They knew what they were working on, and for whom. And youz reach such positons only by showing successful work and enthusiasm for it. If you cannot show results, you either would not get called up, or you would get replaced. Weapons that did not get developed, cannot get used.

[Admiral8Q]

Eight years ago...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TrLgXmHJTFI

[Jimbuna]

Russia and Ukraine gave conflicting accounts of the situation in Bakhmut on Sunday, with Kyiv saying it still controlled a small part of the besieged eastern city while Moscow congratulated the Wagner private army and Russian troops for "liberating" it.

* Ukrainian forces have partly encircled Bakhmut along the flanks and still control a part of the city, Deputy Defence Minister Hanna Maliar said.

* Senior Ukrainian General Oleksandr Syrskyi said Kyiv's forces controlled a small part of the devastated city, were advancing in the suburbs and weregetting closer to a "tactical encirclement" of the city.

* Russia claimed on Saturday to have fully captured Bakhmut, which would mark an end to the longest and bloodiest battle of the 15-month war and Russian President Vladimir Putin congratulated troops and Wagner.

* Biden said the Russians had suffered over 100,000 casualties in Bakhmut.

* A Russian-installed official in Ukraine's southern Zaporizhzhia region said Kyiv had struck the Russian-held port city of Berdyansk with British-supplied Storm Shadow cruise missiles.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/russia-s-war-on-ukraine-latest-ukraine-says-closer-to-encircling-bakhmut/ar-AA1btoUt?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=ca61abd8956f4785a7b686649bf52b5d&ei=7

[Skybird]

A media research alliance of German and international TV stations and newspapers reports this:

There is apparently a new lead in the German investigation into the attacks on the Nord Stream pipelines. According to research by NDR, WDR, "Süddeutsche Zeitung" and international media partners, it leads to Ukrainian military circles.

According to the report, the Federal Prosecutor General's investigation continues to focus on the sailing yacht "Andromeda": several people are said to have taken off in it from Rostock in September 2022 and could be involved in the explosions at the bottom of the Baltic Sea.

One of the persons could have been a Ukrainian national, according to the research. His name is known to the research partners. The man is said to be in his mid-20s and from a town southeast of Kiev. Photos on social networks show a young man, sometimes in military uniform with helmet - and with conspicuous tattoos. He is said to have previously served in an infantry unit of the Ukrainian military.

The man himself could not be reached. A relative stated on the phone that he was currently serving in the military. According to her information, the man had not left Ukraine last fall, when the explosions were said to have been prepared. Ukrainian government agencies have not yet responded to an inquiry.

From the sailing yacht "Andromeda" another trace apparently leads to Ukraine: the Polish company that had rented the yacht names in official documents as "president" a woman who, according to the research, lives in Ukraine. According to investigative circles, the company registered as a travel agency is apparently a letterbox company and the president is probably a straw woman who knows nothing about the actual operations of the company.

The travel agency does not have a website and has not recorded any significant sales for years - but then in 2020 suddenly 2.8 million euros, with what remains unclear. On the phone, the woman confirmed to be president of the company. Further verbal and also written questions she left unanswered.

To the new searches neither official places in Poland, Sweden, Denmark or in Germany wanted to express themselves. States like Ukraine, the USA or Russia have always denied any responsibility for the destruction of the pipelines. An inquiry to the Ukrainian embassy about the latest research initially remained unanswered. It remains unclear who is ultimately behind the attacks.

[Focus]


NDR, WDR and Süddeutsche Zeitung are very left-leaning media, however, one should keep that in mind.

[mapuc]

^
It has been in the news here in Denmark and Sweden, some month ago.

Latest news here. Is this Russian vessel who can carry a 2 man sub-A Danish Patrol boat toke lots of picture of it.
(which I/we discussed some weeks ago)

Who's behind it-I don't know and who's gonna benefit from it-I don't know.

Markus

[mapuc]

More about these F-16's

(This is a partial translation from a Danish Article)


Pioneering work
The Ukrainian Air Force is largely built around older Soviet MiG fighters, radars and communications equipment. In addition, the Ukrainian landing sites must also undergo an overhaul before any aircraft may be integrated.

- The F-16s you send to Ukraine must be able to communicate with the Ukrainian systems, ground forces and radars. So adjustments have to be made. There will be a lot of challenges because these are such different systems, says Hans Peter Michaelsen and continues:

- Another characteristic of the F-16 is that it has the air intake right down to the ground, so very clean runways are also required. There must not be cracks in the asphalt and things that it can suck up into the engine. So the bases they will be flying from will need an overhaul.


There's a lot more into it than training the pilots and the grown crew

Markus

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1fxJoNEx2l8

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XWDd438ptPA

[Skybird]

France announces a raise of its defence budget by a whopping 30%.



Yoo-hoo, Germany - woke up already or still deadlocked in REM sleep??

[mapuc]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_cnnRyTjed4&ab_channel=DenysDavydov

Markus

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j-M9vM-P1RU

[Dargo]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_cnnRyTjed4&ab_channel=DenysDavydov

MarkusAlong the Ukrainian border in Russia's Belgorod region Russia spent a fortune positioning masses of tanks traps and digging anti-tank ditches boi they worked well :D

[Jimbuna]

The fight for Bakhmut has shown that Russian commanders cannot coordinate their disparate forces. Nor can they think up ways to inject elements of surprise and flexibility into their operations or show any regard for economy of effort; all vital military considerations.

If they take any lessons from Bakhmut at all - and it is a big ‘if’ given that the Russian army has rarely shown itself to be a self-critical organisation - they will reinforce the belief that flattening an area with artillery then pushing men forward at great cost to clear what remains is a winning tactic.

It is not, or at least it only can be if you have an unlimited stock of manpower and ammunition and a society that will tolerate the butcher’s bill. None of these are guaranteed anymore for Putin.

[Exocet25fr]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m3PwtwQvGXc

[Skybird]

The joke is that for the Ukrainians the buildings and the place of Bakhmut probabaly never were what they were after.


And their game is still not over. If I were moving forces into a city and have the enemy advancing north and south of that city and threatening to interrupt lines in my back, I would be very worried.



In other words I think its possible that Bakhmut was just a giant Ukrainian trap. And Ivan stepped into it.

[Skybird]

Putin must have a greater interest in continuing the war even if it runs terribly bad, than he has in getting a peace.

https://www-fr-de.translate.goog/politik/wladimir-putin-ukraine-krieg-motive-frieden-fragen-aussichten-unruhen-92294633.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp

[Rockstar]

There are unconfirmed reports that Lenin’s tomb is temporarily closed while crews repair and reposition Lenin after he “turned over in his grave” due to recent events in Belgorod.

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=67a7OqWvb4Q

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bt_Ei1aGi_M

[Jimbuna]

You really couldn't make this up! :o

Russian minister who criticised Vladimir Putin over Ukraine war mysteriously dies after falling fatally ill on flight to Moscow
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/russian-minister-who-criticised-vladimir-putin-over-ukraine-war-mysteriously-dies-after-falling-fatally-ill-on-flight-to-moscow/ar-AA1bxJ6s?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=3f7b895c51b5452ebfb2891efad87b91&ei=16

[Skybird]

15 months after the start of the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine, the Federal Intelligence Service BND has not found any indications pointing to destabilisation of the regime of Russian President Vladimir Putin. Despite isolated criticism - for example of ammunition deliveries - there are also no signs that the system is tottering or imploding, said the head of Germany's foreign intelligence service. However, he added that this could not be ruled out either.


"Russia is still capable of waging war seen from a long distance" - with soldiers recruited again and again, the BND president told the Federal Academy for Security Policy (BAKS) in Berlin. This also applies to the areas of armament and ammunition. In this respect, he said, there is no talk of weakness or of the possibility of activities collapsing. It is true that there are vulnerabilities and surprises - for example, with regard to the performance of the armed forces. But if the West does not support Ukraine in a very organised way and organise resistance, Putin's strategy of relying on the long term and the masses could prevail.


[DW]

[Jimbuna]

Residents in Russia's Belgorod region who have fled their homes due to fighting there have been urged not to return yet.

Russian officials say an armed "sabotage" group crossed from Ukraine and attacked the Grayvoronsky district by the border on Monday.

Moscow has now launched a terrorism investigation as fighting continues.

Ukraine denies responsibility and said Russian citizens from two paramilitary groups were behind the incursion.

[Otto Harkaman]

Pentagon's 3 billion dollar accounting "error"
https://youtu.be/AMBapmS2Ohc

[Skybird]

World War II

• U.S. war spending (2019 dollars): $4.69 trillion
• Duration: 3 years, 9 months
• U.S. military deaths: 405,399


Iraq War

• U.S. war spending (2019 dollars): $1.01 trillion
• Duration: 7 years, 5 months
• U.S. military deaths: 4,410


War in Afghanistan

• U.S. war spending (2019 dollars): $910.47 billion
• Duration: Since 2001
• U.S. military deaths: 2,285


Vietnam War

• U.S. war spending (2019 dollars): $843.63 billion
• Duration: 17 years, 9 months
• U.S. military deaths: 58,220


Korean War

• U.S. war spending (2019 dollars): $389.81 billion
• Duration: 3 years, 1 month
• U.S. military deaths: 36,574


World War I

• U.S. war spending (2019 dollars): $381.8 billion
• Duration: 1 year, 7 months
• U.S. military deaths: 116,516


Persian Gulf War

• U.S. war spending (2019 dollars): $116.6 billion
• Duration: 7 months
• U.S. military deaths: 383


Aid and goods to Ukraine until mid-May 2023

$ 76.9 billion
Duration: 15 months, counting
U.S. military deaths: 0


American Civil War (Union)

• U.S. war spending (2019 dollars): $68.17 billion
• Duration: 4 years
• U.S. military deaths: 750,000 (North and South)


Sources:


https://eu.usatoday.com/story/money/2019/06/13/cost-of-war-13-most-expensive-wars-in-us-history/39556983/


https://www.cfr.org/article/how-much-aid-has-us-sent-ukraine-here-are-six-charts


The relevant number in red is not the 76.9 bn, but it is the red 0 .

[Skybird]

Moscow released photos that show wrecked Humvees somewhere, and they claim these were located at Belgorod.

Moscow claims the attackers were Ukrianians. Ukraine denies it were involved. Some say it were Russian and anti-Putin renegates, or Russians in Ukrainian service.

Why it matters?

Because if this was a unit under Ukrainian command, somebody must have given them those Humvees. And that then is the display of an awful waste, to put it this way, and I think we should reconsider delivering them stuff if they waste it like this.

If the wrecked Humvee photos given by Moscow were indeed taken at Bolgorod. The claim is so far unconfirmed.

I read nothing on what the use of this light ground attack on Belgorod should have been.

Belgorod lies 60-70 km north of Charkiv, the border runs more or less at half the distance between the two cities.


To be clear: in principle, it is perfectly legitimate to take the war to the aggressor's terrain as well. I only wonder when it is done in a way that causes only costs and losses, but no gains whatsoever.

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x56Dk0tzqes

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iJ8bzu1YkEI

[Skybird]

Switzerland kind of bows to the huge international pressure and agreed to hand back 25 of its Leopard-2A4 tanks to Germany. Which means that from here the can be handed to Ukraione. I assume after the Germans refurbished them a bit.


25 heavy tanks are 25 heavy tanks. Lets speed it up.

[Skybird]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iJ8bzu1YkEI
The Kerch bridge has not been bombed, and I think the ukrainians know that if they bomb it and leave russians no way out, they then need to fight them down on Crimea. Thats why I think chances are the bridge will not be bombed any time soon. At some time it will, but possibly not early on. If they strike, then possibly the railtrack bridge, not the car bridge. Military logistics rely more on railway than on trucks, if thinking of quanities of supplies moeved.

[Exocet25fr]

Hungary outraged by leaked Ukrainian plans to blow up vital oil pipeline


https://rmx.news/hungary/hungary-outraged-by-leaked-ukrainian-plans-to-blow-up-vital-oil-pipeline/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/05/13/zelensky-ukraine-war-leaked-documents/

[Jimbuna]

Yevgeny Prigozhin in yet another attack on the Russian leader and his conies, but what are his motives?

Vladimir Putin has led Russia to abject failure with his invasion of Ukraine, the head of the Russian Wagner mercenary group has said in an astonishing outburst.

Far from demilitarising Ukraine – Russia's key war aim – Putin's botched strategy has seen Kyiv amass 'one of the world's strongest armies' through massive Western supplies, Yevgeny Prigozhin said.

The Wagner chief was once considered a close ally and confidant of Russia's tyrant and had been nicknamed Putin's 'chef'. But in the latest of his increasingly frequent outbursts, Prigozhin has given a devastating critique of his war strategy.

He then warned of impending 'revolution' in Russia unless changes were made by the Kremlin leadership.

In an astonishing attack on military leaders, he said Russia would restore the death penalty and the guilty – he named defence ministry Sergei Shoigu and chief of the defence staff Valery Gerasimov as responsible for the war crisis – would be 'hanged on Red Square'.

Prigozhin blamed both Shoigu and Gerasimov for losing more men in Bakhmut than in the entire ten-year Soviet war in Afghanistan from 1979-89, which eventually led to the collapse of the USSR.

'So the de-nazification of Ukraine, which we announced – we made Ukraine a nation, known to everyone around the globe,' he said, mocking Putin's warped purpose for going to war.

'They are like Greeks at their peak, or Romans.'

He told interviewer Konstantin Dolgov - a prominent pro-war blogger: 'We legitimised Ukraine, it became a country which is known to everyone.

'As for de-militarisation… [this is] a painful issue indeed.

'So if they had at the start of it 500 tanks – now they have 5,000. If there were 20,000 men who were able to fight – now there are 400,000. So how exactly did we demilitarise it?

'Quite the opposite! We militarised it up to the brim.

'I think Ukrainians today are one of the world's strongest armies. They have high levels of organisation, training, military intelligence.

'They have various ammunition and moreover, they are able to switch between any system - Soviet, Nato, anything at all - with the same success. They take their losses philosophically.

'All they do is to achieve the supreme goal, just like us during the Great Patriotic War [Second World War].'

Prigozhin's armed force of convicts and volunteers – named Wagner private military company – has claimed to have taken Bakhmut but at a devastating toll.

He admitted that in Bakhmut his force had lost 10,000 prisoners freed to fight for Putin, and the same number of volunteers. Many experts estimate the Wagner losses to be higher.

Prigozhin then claimed Ukraine had lost 50,000 with 70,000 wounded.

'During the [special military operation] I pulled out 50,000 inmates from jails,' he said. Twenty per cent of them died.'

Adding to the latest of his outbursts, Prigozhin said he saw Shoigu and Gerasimov as guilty, not least for failing to supply Wagner with ammunition and weapons.

'Without a doubt the death penalty will be brought back, because we are in a state of war,' he said.

And the guilty people will receive their punishment – as a minimum, they'll be hanged on the Red Square.'

He lambasted the comfortable elites in Russia who continued to live normally while cannon fodder troops at the front lost their lives in huge numbers.

Their sons must be forced to the war, he said.

'When you bury them, the rest of Russian parents who receive their kids in zinc coffins would feel that now the situation is right. If this doesn't happen, we risk revolution.'

Prigozhin warned of the real threat of Russia losing the war.

The warlord said he now 'hardly believes' it possible that Russia can see through one of the most optimistic scenarios of holding on to the territory it now has.

The 'pessimistic scenario', he said, is that Ukraine can 'restore the 2014 borders, they will try to attack Crimea, destroy the Crimean Bridge, and cut off routes of supply.

'And most likely the scenario won't be good for us,' he said.

Russia 'must prepare for a heavy war. What must we do – not to lose Russia? Because today we are in a state when we can lose Russia.

'We must introduce martial law. We must call new waves of mobilisation. We must switch everyone to production of weapons.

'Stop building skyscrapers, new roads, new infrastructure – and work only for the war. We must live like in North Korea for several years, and shut the borders.'
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/putin-has-led-russia-to-failure-with-his-invasion-says-wagner-mercenary-chief/ar-AA1bCqS1?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=2a569a092c744447aac3b0454fbe48f5&ei=7

[Dargo]

Moscow released photos that show wrecked Humvees somewhere, and they claim these were located at Belgorod.

Moscow claims the attackers were Ukrianians. Ukraine denies it were involved. Some say it were Russian and anti-Putin renegates, or Russians in Ukrainian service.

Why it matters?

Because if this was a unit under Ukrainian command, somebody must have given them those Humvees. And that then is the display of an awful waste, to put it this way, and I think we should reconsider delivering them stuff if they waste it like this.

If the wrecked Humvee photos given by Moscow were indeed taken at Bolgorod. The claim is so far unconfirmed.

I read nothing on what the use of this light ground attack on Belgorod should have been.

Belgorod lies 60-70 km north of Charkiv, the border runs more or less at half the distance between the two cities.


To be clear: in principle, it is perfectly legitimate to take the war to the aggressor's terrain as well. I only wonder when it is done in a way that causes only costs and losses, but no gains whatsoever.Russia has released footage of captured Humvees from the Bilhorod Raid. The Freedom of Russia Legion claims that there were no losses. These vehicles were most likely previously captured. They were lowered by crane into position, because there are no tire tracks and there is a circular disturbed dirt pattern by one of the wheels, from when it was lowered. The disturbed grass in the background shows a trail that is too large for two Humvees, so the crane approached from the rear. The scene was staged with debris from the building in the background. Building material is littered around the vehicles, but not near the building. The Humvees were dropped into what looks to be an underground shelter that used logs for bracing, not craters. The white cross that was painted on the side of the Humvee seems to have faded due to the elements.

On the driver’s side rear of one of the vehicles there appears to be damage from an explosion. Rust in the non-painted areas suggests the damage is not new. There is also not damage to the dirt area near the vehicle, which would occur from an explosion. It is clear that this vehicle was disabled long before being moved to this location.

If these vehicles crashed into position, you would also expect to see dirt on top of the hood, and damage to the front of the vehicles. All you see is broken glass from what appear to be bullets that impacted after the crash. The debris from a headlight also appears to have landed long after the crash. Again, there does not appear to be any evidence that suggest the vehicles struggles to get out, after being stuck. There is also no blood in the vehicle, which you would expect to see in any accident of this magnitude.

Additionally, on some of the vehicles, the words "For Bakhmut" are written. This occurred recently after Russians claimed to have fully captured Bakhmut. In the midst of staging or embellishing this scene, they appear to be lamenting the Bakhmut experience. When they should be celebrating, they are looking for revenge?

Not very effective propaganda. https://twitter.com/PhotoWander/status/1661135659401347074

1) The Russian government released this photo of the alleged Belgorod insurgents vehicles after a battle. I used to be a tow truck operator. This is staged. These vehicles didn’t crash into that trench. I’ll explain why... https://twitter.com/FluteMagician/status/1661162964261404673

[Dargo]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x56Dk0tzqesThis was a raid not meant to keep occupying terrain. The main differences between a raid and other attack forms are the limited objectives of the raid and the associated withdrawal following completion. Raids may be conducted in daylight or darkness, within or beyond supporting distance of the parent unit.

[Exocet25fr]

The Ivan Khurs reconnaissance ship attacked by ukrainian drones in international waters in the Black Sea

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12119207/Russias-modern-spy-warship-attacked-marine-drones-Black-Sea.html

[Jimbuna]

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has said that the discussion of Ukraine’s membership in the Alliance among allies is still ongoing, and what the outcome of the summit in Vilnius will be, no one can say atm.

What is being stated though is the fact that Ukraine will not be allowed to join in the middle of a war.

[mapuc]

(Translated from a Danish article)


A drone strike against the Kremlin in early May was likely orchestrated by one of Ukraine's special military or intelligence units.

According to the newspaper The New York Times, this is the assessment of US intelligence services.

The US intelligence services do not know exactly which unit carried out the attack. It is also unclear whether President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his government knew about the operation.

Several US officials believe that Zelenskyj was not informed about the attack.

According to The New York Times, the American intelligence services have reached their preliminary conclusion partly through intercepted communications. Here, Russian officials have blamed Ukraine for the attack.

Through other intercepted communications, Ukrainian officials have also said they believe their country is responsible for the attack.

The attack was carried out on Wednesday, May 3, with two drones causing damage to the Kremlin.

Markus

[Jimbuna]

It is being reported that three Russian hypersonic missile scientists have been arrested on suspicion of treason and will go on trial next week.

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yZqkyRT21j4

[Skybird]

The difference between the Russian and the ukrainian army is set very early. This text really made me feel sad for some reason. Written in March.

Russian children in elementary school classes dance in military uniforms. They take apart rapid-fire rifles as fast as they can and then put them back together. The children don't mind. They don't care. They hear the song "I am a Russian!". They are taught to raise their hands in the air at the words "I am Russian." The children don't mind. They don't care.

"They did the same thing to us in the Soviet Union," Lena says. "But we didn't go to the slaughter. These children did."
Rumors persist that the Ukrainian counteroffensive will begin in late April. It is supposed to start in the south, in the Zaporizhia region. Since everyone is talking about it openly, this cannot be true, of course. The Russians know it very well. Their intelligence reports that Ukrainian troops are concentrated in the south as well as in the north. That means there could be a second front as well. The counteroffensive will again start in the Kharkiv region and continue towards Luhansk.

Those who sympathize with the Russians are already bringing their families to Russia, in the south as well as in the north, just in case. Everyone is sure that there will be an offensive, but until the last minute we will not know which of the chess pieces will be set in motion first. It is expected that the first move will be unexpected.
There is a big difference between all the previous offensives of the Ukrainian army and what will happen in April. Because the counteroffensive could liberate territories that have been controlled by the Russians for nine years. Nine years. In that time, children have been born and raised who do not know what Ukraine is. They can only associate the word "Ukrainian" with Nazis crucifying babies on billboards or killing bullfinches because their plumage has the colors of the Russian flag.

In the so-called Luhansk People's Republic, two local boys have erected a play roadblock near their home and now guard it zealously. One of them is nine or ten years old, the other a few years younger.

They have put a lot of work into their project. The younger one carries a large Kalashnikov (almost as big as he is) that was very neatly and precisely cut from a piece of cardboard. The rifle is painted in camouflage green, which is already slightly faded. At first there was a Russian flag painted on the butt of the rifle, but now the flag is worn off. The magazine is wrapped with colored insulating tape, red, white and blue - the Russian national colors. The boy wears another Russian flag on his hat.

Their faces look like the faces of ideal soldiers in an ideal Russian front photo. Short-haired, floppy-eared, identical as dumplings, not in the least burdened with intelligence. Not the slightest doubt in their blue eyes. Joyfully they obey every order, even an idiotic one. They may be good tractor drivers, prison guards, or else perfect cannon fodder. But neither doctors nor scientists nor teachers. They will never paint pictures or write books.

They are full of energy. They have surrounded a horrible, probably stinking rotten barn with camouflage netting, put some car tires nearby and written, "Stop. Control." They're wearing dirty clothes and muddy boots. But everything around them is dirty and muddy, too. On the roof of the creepy barn flutter the flags of Russia, the Republic of Luhansk and some other unidentified flags.

Change of scene: a Ukrainian village in the Kiev region. And here, too, two local boys have erected a play roadblock near their house and are now guarding it zealously. One of them is about eight years old, the other is a few years younger.

But that's where the similarity ends. The children are wearing real metal helmets that they got from the military. Their toy guns look just like real ones, and they are not old AK-47s, but modern NATO models. The children smile in a friendly way, their faces do not look like dumplings, but like yellow dandelions stretching towards the sun.

They are not at all camera shy, even if the younger one still finds it difficult to articulate longer sentences. They don't have military haircuts, and they wear clean, neat clothes.

Of course, this is all half true and half staged. But the children mirror the adults truthfully, they copy them exactly and without ulterior motives, and looking at them in this way, one can clearly see what the main difference between the Russian and Ukrainian armies is.

About the author

Of the war diaries written after the Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, those of Sergei Vladimirovich Gerasimov are among the most stirring and touching. They combine powers of observation and knowledge of human nature, empathy and imagination, a sense of the absurd and probing intelligence. Gerasimov was born in Kharkiv in 1964. He studied psychology and later wrote a psychology textbook for schools and scientific articles on cognitive activities. His literary ambitions have been for science fiction and poetry. Gerasimov and his wife live in the center of Kharkiv in an apartment on the third floor of a high-rise building. The first part of the diary has now been collected and published as a book under the title "Fire Panorama" by DTV.

[NZZ]

[Skybird]

Russia's army is adapting and improving. They learn.

https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/05/21/russias-army-is-learning-on-the-battlefield

[Skybird]

The long-awaited Ukrainian counteroffensive against Russia's troops has begun, according to Ukrainian presidential adviser Mychaylo Podolyak. "The counteroffensive has been going on for days," he said in an interview on Italian television. "This is an intense war along a 1500-kilometer border. Our actions have already begun," Podoljak, an adviser to President Volodimir Selensky, added, according to the Italian translation.


At the same time, he denied that Kiev was involved in the attacks in Russia's Belgorod region.

[Jimbuna]

The head of Russia's Wagner mercenary group has announced that its forces have started withdrawing from the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut.

Yevgeny Prigozhin has vowed to transfer control of the city to the Russian army by 1 June, but Kyiv says it still controls pockets of the city.

He said his forces were ready to return if the Russian regular army proved unable to manage the situation.

[Jimbuna]

Well then. no big surprises here.

Belarus has agreed to allow Russia to deploy tactical nuclear weapons on its territory, a step Moscow said was driven by a 'sharp escalation of threats' towards both countries from the West.

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu signed the agreement with his counterpart in Minsk today, allowing for the weapons to be stored on the territory, which borders Ukraine.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/belarus-agrees-to-let-russia-deploy-tactical-nukes-on-its-territory/ar-AA1bG5LW?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=13db74214bdd4770a26768895a701339&ei=14

[Skybird]

Who is Denis Kapustin?


https://www-focus-de.translate.goog/politik/ausland/ukraine-krise/rechtsextremer-anti-putin-russe-will-russisches-regime-bekaempfen_id_194746336.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp


It helps to support the Kremlin's narrative that they are fighting Nazis form Ukraine when indeed Nazis have attacked across the border near Belgorod.

Kiyv may not be in the position to be choosy, but maybe sometimes they better should choose a bit wiser nevertheless.

[Dargo]

Who is Denis Kapustin?


https://www-focus-de.translate.goog/politik/ausland/ukraine-krise/rechtsextremer-anti-putin-russe-will-russisches-regime-bekaempfen_id_194746336.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp


It helps to support the Kremlin's narrative that they are fighting Nazis form Ukraine when indeed Nazis have attacked across the border near Belgorod.

Kiyv may not be in the position to be choosy, but maybe sometimes they better should choose a bit wiser nevertheless.According to court documents, Aleksei Navalny now faces charges of creating an extremist group, a felony punishable by up to 10 years in prison; calls for extremism; creating a nonprofit organization that violates citizens' rights; financing extremism; involving a minor in criminal activities; terrorism; and rehabilitating Nazism. Wonder if these extreme right-wing ultra-nationalistic groups will be linked to Navalny, Russia also has Nazi units fighting Russian ideology is not far from fascism/Nazism the All-Russian Political Party "United Russia" says enough.

[Skybird]

Nawalny is not that innocent victim the Western media usually paint him as, but I strongly mistrust claims about him made by regime-loyal courts. They can be true, or not - but in any case they are brought up absolutely to the wishes and opportunistic interests of the regime.

Personally, I do not trust Navalny.

I also do not really trust Zelensky, btw.


Maybe I am paranoid. :D I mean I do not trust Microsoft, Google and Zuckerberg either.

[Jimbuna]

Yet another example of Russian war crimes - attacking civilians and their infrastructure.

At least one person has been killed and 15 injured, including two children, in a missile strike on a medical clinic in Dnipro in eastern Ukraine.

The Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky, confirmed the attack and said authorities were working to rescue others from the hospital.

He said all necessary authorities were involved in the clean up mission.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65720853

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=20VKbFclWpk

[Skybird]

Oh-oh, dark clouds gathering at the horizon. Der Spiegel writes:


In the investigation into the explosives attacks on the Nord Stream gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea, there are growing indications that the perpetrators were Ukrainian. According to SPIEGEL information, the metadata of an e-mail sent when the sailing yacht "Andromeda", which was presumably used to transport the explosives, was rented, should lead to Ukraine.
The explosions on both pipelines had occurred in late September. Two strings of Nord Stream 1 were disrupted, one of Nord Stream 2. In the immediate aftermath of the explosions, many publicly accused Russia of being responsible for the attacks.

To this day, numerous speculations about possible perpetrators persist, ranging all the way to an accusation of American intelligence services in cooperation with Norwegian authorities. There has also been repeated talk of a so-called "false flag" operation by Russia. Among people familiar with the matter, this is considered extremely unlikely. Behind the scenes, it was even said early on that Moscow had no real motive for the act.

The investigators of Attorney General Peter Frank, on the other hand, are now certain that the sailing yacht "Andromeda" was used for the attack. She sailed from Rostock-Warnemünde in early September 2022 and returned after the attacks. Apparently, forged identification documents were used for her charter.
Remains of an underwater explosive were found distributed over a large area in the cabin of the "Andromeda". The explosive was said to be octogen, a widely used explosive in both the West and the former Eastern Bloc. Investigators have described the explosive power of the explosive charges used as equivalent to 500 kilograms of TNT.

Octogen is much lighter than TNT, would be transportable by a relatively small boat, and could have been brought to the attack site on the bottom of the Baltic Sea by experienced combat divers. This eliminates the often advanced theory that the bombers could have brought the explosive to the attack site only by a larger ship and possibly a mini-submarine because of its weight.

The traces found by the Federal Criminal Police Office coincide with estimates by several intelligence services, according to which the perpetrators are to be located in Ukraine. The intelligence services are now wondering whether the attack could have been carried out by an uncontrolled commando or by Ukrainian intelligence services - and to what extent parts of the Ukrainian government apparatus may have been in the picture.

However, it is still unclear on what basis exactly these assessments were made. Even before the attacks, the German Federal Intelligence Service (BND) had received a warning from the U.S. intelligence service CIA: There were indications of a planned attack on the pipelines by Ukrainian perpetrators.

The BND, however, considered the report to be not very credible. Since the attacks, however, Germany has received numerous indications from foreign intelligence services that the perpetrators of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine were more likely to be on the side of the Ukrainians. The New York Times was the first to report such an assessment by U.S. authorities in March.
Further evidence pointing in the direction of Ukraine is said to be the Ukrainian owners of a Polish company that was apparently involved in renting the ship. In addition, there is a photo on allegedly forged documents that leads to a Ukrainian social media profile.
However, people familiar with the facts of the case recently expressed internal doubts as to whether this circumstantial evidence should be regarded as a hot lead. The Federal Public Prosecutor's Office would not comment, citing ongoing investigations.

That would be a hammer thing, if it were the Ukraine, maybe also Poland.


Back then I said that these two players were possible but unlikely to be the attackers. I also said - with Russia on my mind - that such a strike on the infrastructure to me equlas an act of war. Of course it still is an act of war if Ukriane and/or Poland are behind it. Which still is an "if", lets not forget that.

If one day the theory that it was the Ukraine gets proven, then imho there can be only one consequence Germany can and must draw: the immediate and total suspension of any further aid deliveries of any kind, and consequently blocking all further attempts for a closer associatoion of the Ukriane with EU and NATO. Whioch woudl be a ver yhigh rpice for Ukraine to pay - and that was my argument bakc then why I think they would never dare to commit this little advnetours deed.

Its worth to recall that there are news reports every once in a while indicating that neither in Washington nor in Berlin the intel agencies really trust Selensky.

Of course ther eis the need to exmaine this all with utmost sweriosuness, to rule out that it all is nevertheless a fals flag operaiton by Russia. Its motivation would be clear: to trigger the German reaction as described above.

The possibility that Washington is behind all this, must be given higher probability, too, in the light of these findings.

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7bMjDCXYHtk

[Skybird]

Ukraine is again causing trouble for Germany's Scholzomats with a request to supply Taurus cruise missiles, an equivalent of the British Storm Shadow, with a range of over 500km and a warhead weighing just under 500kg. Plane-launched Taurus is a partnership development of Germany and Sweden.


Defense Minister Pistorius reacted evasively and reservedly. For its part, the CDU opposition proposed offering Taurus a few days ago.

[ET2SN]

Sky, try to look at this in terms of technical means and MOTIVE. :yep:

The US, Russia, UK, and some of the Nordic countries have the technical means to carry out the attack. Poland might. Ukraine probably does not.

Now, let's look at motive. :hmmm:

Why would any member of NATO punish another member by shutting down an energy source? This happened at a time when it was critical for NATO to stand strong and united.

Let's assume it was one of the Nordic countries who wanted to apply for membership. That's one heck of a resume, imagine what would have happened if something went wrong or someone got caught. :doh:

So, let's look at Russia. :yeah:
Why on earth would Russia want to destroy its own pipeline which fed Germany? Maybe to send a message? Recall that the pipeline had already been shut down due to sanctions.

When in doubt, trust the basic logic and don't feed the trolls. :yep:

[Otto Harkaman]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FeIqW1lWQAAAmWy.jpg

[Skybird]

Sky, try to look at this in terms of technical means and MOTIVE. :yep:

The US, Russia, UK, and some of the Nordic countries have the technical means to carry out the attack. Poland might. Ukraine probably does not.

Now, let's look at motive. :hmmm:

Why would any member of NATO punish another member by shutting down an energy source? This happened at a time when it was critical for NATO to stand strong and united.

Let's assume it was one of the Nordic countries who wanted to apply for membership. That's one heck of a resume, imagine what would have happened if something went wrong or someone got caught. :doh:

So, let's look at Russia. :yeah:
Why on earth would Russia want to destroy its own pipeline which fed Germany? Maybe to send a message? Recall that the pipeline had already been shut down due to sanctions.

When in doubt, trust the basic logic and don't feed the trolls. :yep:
You make it way too complicated.


If it was Washington, then they will not have send a US commando, but will have used local "contractors", so to speak. Ukrainians, maybe Putin-hostile Russian, Poles, Europeans.



If it was Ukraine, they too probaly will have cooperated with local "options".


Biden said before the war that in case of an invasion everbyody shpuld better b epeive the US would shut down the pipeline, and would find the means to do it.



If it were Ukraine with or without Poland, the motive for both is clear. To influence Germany in favour of the war, and to end a possible financial income source for Russia.



If it was Russia, it did so becasue Putin wanted to show Europoe how much he pisses on it and that Europoe should not beleiove he depend on tzhat pipeline, but he wanted to dmeosnbtrate early that a continuation of opposition to Russia could lead to Russia itself could decide to not want to deliver anything to Europoe anymore. A warning. A shut down pipeline could be opened again, could leave hopes alive. A destroyed pipeline is a much tougher message.



Also not forget that Poland wanted the death of Nordstream 2 for another reason, too, that is Poland wanted itself to become the distribution hub for LNG from the US that should have get landed in Denmark and from there being distributed by pipeline to Poland which then would have had the financial benefit and also the control - last but not least as an option to apply pressure against Brussels.



The baltic states also were against the pipeline, seeing it as a porked German security perception regarding Russia, and they were right.



The research results found over the past months more and more seem to point at the direction I considered to be the most unlikely one. I rule no scenario out anymore.


If it were the Ukraine or the US/UK or them two together, and maybe with Poland, it will hit Berlin like a MOAB. Germany is in a too weak psoition, most oiekly, to do anythign about it, and so will try to paly it down, or to hide it, but in principle this act then would be a reason to break up the alliance. You do not bomb energy infrastructure of an ally in peacetimes, hidden, and out of the blue. Totally unacceptable, no matter how wriogn the German way was. Diplkamtic isolation, sanctions, ecnomci punishment - all possible: But an act of war? No, unacceptable. What would be next? A befriended nation winning an economic competition of any sort, and to stop that you sabotage or bomb (by a contracto "terror gang", not by an air strike) that "befriended" nation's factory...? Nobody can want that.


P.S. This all could still be a cleverly masked false flag operation by Russia. This should not be forgotten.

[August]

I think the fact that one of the four pipelines was left untouched, not damaged or even prepped to explode, but deliberately ignored, points the deed to Russia.

If it were Ukraine or the Poles or the US, then all four pipes would have been destroyed and if one of the charges had failed it would have left behind evidence or damage but none exists. We would not have left the option open for Russia to turn the spigot back on someday. Only Russia has the motive to keep one of the pipes intact.

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wJ25wwq8sng

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wCrZ-FqMyDg

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OvxkSBN5DvU

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jhOlSWh7F5s

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1CUvxllCJOk

[UglyMowgli]

Even I can't understand what NATO/USA have to do in Ukraine-It's not exactly a country worth starting WWIII for.

On the other hand I would understand if NATO deployed troops near the border towards Ukraine in Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania. In case Russia are planning on invading Ukraine.

Markus




There is 8 battlegroups already deployed in the Eastern borders since the invasion:


Host nation: Bulgaria
Framework nation: Italy
Contributing nations: Albania, Greece, North Macedonia, Türkiye and the United States
Host nation: Estonia
Framework nation: United Kingdom
Contributing nations: Denmark, France and Iceland
Host nation: Hungary
Framework nation: Hungary
Contributing nations: Croatia, Italy, Montenegro, Türkiye and the United States
Host nation: Latvia
Framework nation: Canada
Contributing nations: Albania, Czechia, Italy, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia and Spain
Host nation: Lithuania
Framework nation: Germany
Contributing nations: Belgium, Czechia, Luxembourg, the Netherlands and Norway
Host nation: Poland
Framework nation: United States
Contributing nations: Croatia, Romania and the United Kingdom
Host nation: Romania
Framework nation: France
Contributing nations: the Netherlands, North Macedonia, Poland, Portugal and the United States
Host nation: Slovakia
Framework nation: Czechia
Contributing nations: Germany, the Netherlands and Slovenia

[mapuc]

^Thank you

Yes there are a few battalion near the Ukrainian borders.

Hopefully they will be there and don't have to do a thing. Other than being prepared if the Ruskies should do something really not so clever thing

Markus

[Dargo]

^Thank you

Yes there are a few battalion near the Ukrainian borders.

Hopefully they will be there and don't have to do a thing. Other than being prepared if the Ruskies should do something really not so clever thing

MarkusRussian forces are hardly copping in Ukraine its border is wide open, do not see them risking a war with NATO they do not have material or personnel for that.

[mapuc]

Russian forces are hardly copping in Ukraine its border is wide open, do not see them risking a war with NATO they do not have material or personnel for that.

I do not know how Putin works psychologically...I don't know what that man could come up with.

You're right Russia does not have the manpower, material or the skills to take on NATO. However it's what's going on in Putin's head that decided whether the war will end peaceful or....

Markus

[Dargo]

I do not know how Putin works psychologically...I don't know what that man could come up with.

You're right Russia does not have the manpower, material or the skills to take on NATO. However it's what's going on in Putin's head that decided whether the war will end peaceful or....

MarkusPutin can order what he wants, and the Russian MOD will comply, but his army will face destruction that would mean defeat so the end of Putin, so let's hope he does that exactly. Where the frell is Steiner when you need him. There is talk they use forced labor for the war production again good means more security resources needed that can not be used in Russia or Ukraine, the end is coming that is for sure.

[ET2SN]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rcRKBMQkCIw



:hmmm:

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f9M11UkkJZI

[Jimbuna]

Well worth a viewing imho.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bQbP4jTx2wU

[MaDef]

Even I can't understand what NATO/USA have to do in Ukraine-It's not exactly a country worth starting WWIII for.
Markus Two things, Iron ore and grain. You should be able to extrapolate from that. :03:

[Jimbuna]

Total combat losses of Russian Federation since beginning of war - about 207,030 people (+430 per day), 3,801 tanks, 3,435 artillery systems, 7,467 armored vehicles. INFOGRAPHICS

As of the morning of 29 May 2023, the losses of the Russian occupiers are approximately 207,030 people.

As noted, the total combat losses of the enemy from 24.02.22 to 29.05.23 are approximately:

personnel - about 20,7030 (+430) people were liquidated,

tanks - 3801 (+4) units,

armored combat vehicles - 7467 (+11) units,

artillery systems - 3435 (+10) units,

MLRS - 575 (+1) units,

air defense systems - 331 (+2) units,

aircraft - 313 (+0) units,

helicopters - 298 (+0) units,

UAVs of the operational and tactical level - 3054 (+61),

cruise missiles - 1056 (+0),

ships/boats - 18 (+0) units,

motor vehicles and tankers - 6207 (+15) units,

special equipment - 453 (+2). Source: https://censor.net/en/n3421309

[Skybird]

Russia is trying to use American concerns about "Wall Street Journal" correspondent Evan Gershkovich, detained in Moscow on espionage charges, to influence the newspaper's coverage. This is shown by a report of the state news agency Ria

If the New York newspaper continues an "activity not related to journalism" by publishing "disinformation" about Russia, "it will mean that the editorial board is not interested in Gershkovich's fate at all," Ria quoted an unnamed "informed source in Moscow" as saying Friday evening.

In the past few days, the newspaper had carried "a number of articles with false allegations concerning Russia," the "interlocutor" had also said. Examples were missing.

The choice of words is reminiscent of the language used by Russian power representatives in cases where there is a deviation from representations of the Moscow Defense Ministry on the Ukrainian war. Thus, the unofficial but hardly disguised threat to harm Gershkovich is aimed at the entire "Wall Street Journal" coverage of the war.


[FAZ]

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2dm7BPCkHtw

[Jimbuna]

Here we have a classic example of the kettle calling the pan 'black'

Russia has accused Ukraine of launching a series of early morning drone attacks on Moscow, the first time the city has been targeted by multiple drones since Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

The Russian defence ministry said on Telegram that Kyiv had staged a "terrorist attack" using at least eight drones.

Officials said that minor damage had been caused to several buildings.

The capital city's mayor says no-one was seriously injured.

Sergei Sobyanin also said that emergency services were "at the scene of incidents".

The defence ministry has claimed that all the drones were intercepted.

"Three of them were suppressed by electronic warfare, lost control and deviated from their intended targets. Another five drones were shot down by the Pantsir-S surface-to-air missile system in the Moscow region," the ministry said.

Earlier, media reports had said as many as 30 drones were involved. Authorities have also said several of them fell on buildings after being downed.

There has been no comment from Kyiv, but on Monday, the head of Ukraine's military intelligence, Gen Kyrylo Budanov, warned of a swift response to a series of Russian missile strikes on Kyiv.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65751632

[Skybird]

I am wondering. Is there a drone or cruise missile type of weapon that during the final part of its trip switches off its electronics and turns into a dumb glide bomb, something like that, that therefore is immune to electronic warfare downing or influencing it? I would assume such a weapon would need to climb to high altitude immediately before turning "dumb" so to be able to trade altitude for further range in its flight path. Which would make it vulnerable to classic aim-and-shoot air defences, however.


Anything like that available? Or was it tried and given up?

[Jimbuna]

^ I'd have thought that such a weapon, if it existed would already be in use
by Russia.

[Skybird]

^ I'd have thought that such a weapon, if it existed would already be in use
by Russia.
But the need for it would be greater for Ukraine. Russian missiles , AFAIK, get shot down my Gepards and missiles, not by electronic warfare. The missiles striking Russia seem to often get caught by electrionic warfare. Russia - at least before the war - is known to be strong in jamming of all sorts, also in overhearing enemy battlefield comms (at least in the past).

[mapuc]

How Iran could get nukes, which they are so eager to get.

They have just to join the Rus-Bel constellation.

As the leader of Belarus said yesterday...there's nukes to those who join us.

To be honest I doubt Putin would be interested in starting something in the Middle east..of course it would mean that USA has to move material and manpower to that area and so has NATO.

Markus

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8TtU916Acfg

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wSsjIi05Uhw

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5cI1pY7E444

[Skybird]

Germany closes 4 out of 5 Russian consulates in Germany. This is in response to the decision of the Russian government to limit the number of German officials in Russia to 350. In addition, 3 German consulates in Russia will also be closed. Russia must comply until end of this year. I wonder why they give it this long.

[Jimbuna]

I'd love to know how Russia could justify its actions from the article below.

The mothers going to get their children back from Russia
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65641304

[Skybird]

I'd love to know how Russia could justify its actions from the article below.
By brazenly shameless lying.

[August]

As the leader of Belarus said yesterday...there's nukes to those who join us.


Remember those are Tactical nukes with a range of only about 300 miles Markus. Not enough to reach Israel over a thousand miles away so they may be of limited value to the Iranians.

[mapuc]

Remember those are Tactical nukes with a range of only about 300 miles Markus. Not enough to reach Israel over a thousand miles away so they may be of limited value to the Iranians.

You're right I forgot that it was tactical nukes.

Markus

[Skybird]

Tactical nuclear weapons:

https://www.subsim.com/radioroom/showthread.php?p=2832008&highlight=tactical+nu#post2832008

https://www.subsim.com/radioroom/showthread.php?p=2844539&highlight=tactical+nu#post2844539

https://www.subsim.com/radioroom/showpost.php?p=2831595&postcount=7164

https://www.subsim.com/radioroom/showthread.php?t=254801&highlight=tactical+nu


To me it makes less and elsser sense to expect a nuclear escalation by Putin. If he would have done so, then at the beginning of the conflict when it became obvious his army was failing to live up to the expectations. Since then he has tried a lot to improve it - by conventional means.


A singluar use of a tactical nuke meakes no sense, militarily, and I doubt Russia will dare to send several dozens in the first blow. And the use of just one or a few tactical nuclear weapons is something that the Ukraine and the army as a whole would survive. The political fallout would outcost the military mini-gains by many, many factors.

[August]

You're right I forgot that it was tactical nukes.

Markus


Of course if the Iranians can remove the warheads and put them into one of their longer range domestic missiles... :o :D

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CQp6AUDRaRo

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pdWpN7qYRLc
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RuQsQbvqsF0

[Jimbuna]

If I was this guy I'd be sleeping with one eye open and going nowhere near any balconies.

A Russian politician has sensationally called for Vladimir Putin to be removed from power on state television.

The opposition politician Boris Nadezhdin - who has criticised Putin's decision to invade Ukraine - has called for the country to select a different leader in the elections next year.

The outspoken Putin critic told the NTV channel: "We need to choose somebody else, and not Putin. Everything will be good then."

Britain's Ministry of Defence says it marks the first time anyone on state TV has called for the tyrant to be ousted since the war in Ukraine started in February 2022.

Nadezhdin warned that there is "no way" that Russia will be accepted back into Europe as long as Putin rules the country.

He said: "We simply have to choose different authorities to govern the country that would stop this story with Ukraine."

Nadezhdin argues that having a different government in power would enable Russia to "build relations" with other European nations and "everything will come back into place".

The show's anchor, Putin propagandist Ivan Trushkin, appeared to be shocked by the politician's rant against the despot.

In a frantic attempt to interrupt his guest, he said: "I wasn't expecting you to say all of this word for word."
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/russian-politician-sensationally-calls-for-putin-to-be-ousted-on-state-tv/ar-AA1bZA6A?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=cca86315bbbc424db5015d86aff26c84&ei=7

[Jimbuna]

This article does a fair job of pointing out who and why some countries refuse to speak or act against Putin.

Putin's wolfpack: The dictators, despots and his 'friends' refusing to condemn Ukraine war
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/putin-s-wolfpack-the-dictators-despots-and-his-friends-refusing-to-condemn-ukraine-war/ar-AA1bZItE?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=cca86315bbbc424db5015d86aff26c84&ei=12

[Dargo]

Netherlands wants 96 tanks for Ukraine
An explosive dossier is on the Federal Council's table: the head of the Dutch government is personally pressuring Bern for Leopard 1 battle tanks.

Pressure from Europe for Swiss arms deliveries to Ukraine is increasing again. It was already known that Germany, Denmark and Spain wanted to pass on Swiss-made weapons to Ukraine. But the Federal Council vetoed this. Now research shows that the Federal Council is confronted with new demands from an unexpected source: the Netherlands. And unlike in the case of Germany, for example, where only about 12,000 anti-aircraft cartridges are at stake, this time Switzerland is to release heavy war equipment on a grand scale to Ukraine: 96 old Leopard 1 main battle tanks owned by the federally owned arms company Ruag. The head of the Dutch government, Mark Rutte, recently intervened in this matter with the President of the Swiss Confederation, Alain Berset, with the expectation that the Federal Council should release the export of these tanks. This was confirmed to this newspaper by four informed persons in the federal administration. A spokesperson for Berset's media office did not want to comment on this information: "We do not comment on any bilateral contacts.

With Rutte's intervention, a problem that has been smoldering for weeks is becoming hot in Bern. The 96 Leopard 1s are not to be confused with the main battle tanks of the successor type Leopard 2, which are in service with the Swiss army. Only last week, the Federal Council decided to take 25 of them out of service so that they could later be sold on to Germany. The German government had previously given assurances that it would not pass the tanks on to Ukraine. The final decision on this issue, however, will be taken by parliament. The case of the Leopard 1 is legally quite different. What's more, these tanks are not even in Switzerland. They are the predecessor model of the Leopard 2, which was manufactured until the 1980s. The 96 Leopard 1s originally belonged to Italy, but were taken out of service years ago. In 2016, Ruag bought these tanks. They are currently in a depot in northern Italy. As early as the beginning of March, this newspaper made it public that the German arms company Rheinmetall was interested in these tanks - with the idea of technically refurbishing them and then supplying them to Ukraine. At the time, Ruag sent a non-binding request to the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (Seco), but received a negative reply.
At the time, Seco referred to the Federal Council Ordinance on Measures in Connection with the Situation in Ukraine. Article 2 of the ordinance states that the sale, transit or brokering of military equipment is not only prohibited to Russia, but also to Ukraine. With Seco's negative legal opinion, the issue seemed to be settled.
But that was a mistake.

On Thursday morning, Radio SRF made it public that Ruag is not letting up and has now submitted an official request to Seco. Ruag hopes that this will provide clarity, said Ruag spokeswoman Kirsten Hammerich. "We would like an official decision from Seco so that we can better assess the business options." Radio SRF did not report on the role of the Netherlands. Three informed people say the Netherlands wants to co-finance the purchase and modernization of the tanks and then pass them on to Ukraine. It is currently unclear whether other states want to participate in this planned deal. The Dutch embassy in Bern did not want to comment when asked. No further information was available from the Ruag and Rheinmetall companies for the time being. That the Netherlands in particular is pushing for further arms deliveries is less surprising than it seems at first glance. The country has delivered significant quantities of heavy war equipment to Ukraine, including battle tanks, infantry fighting vehicles and air defense systems. One reason is that the Netherlands itself has been the victim of military aggression by Russia: On 17 July 2014, in the early days of the Russian-Ukrainian war, a Malaysia Airlines Boeing was shot down by a Russian missile in eastern Ukraine. This resulted in the deaths of 192 people from the Netherlands.

What is the next step in the Leopard 1 dossier? Theoretically, Seco or Guy Parmelin, the minister responsible for the economy, could answer the application itself. But in all likelihood, Parmelin will submit the delicate dossier to the Federal Council as a whole. This was indicated by the President of the Confederation, Alain Berset, who was at the European Political Community summit in Moldova on Thursday. Asked about the Leopard 1, he told journalists: "These are questions that really have to be dealt with by the Federal Council." Parmelin reportedly wanted to bring the Leopard 1 issue to the Federal Council last week - at the same time as Defense Minister Viola Amherd's request to phase out the 25 Leopard 2s. But then Parmelin withdrew the deal for revision, according to reports. So the Federal Council only took a decision on the Leopard 2s, but not yet on the Leopard 1s. Opinions within the federal administration are divided. There are voices that say that the national government cannot possibly approve the sale of the Leopard 1 because of the laws and ordinances in force and neutrality. Other voices think that there are legal possibilities - especially since the tanks are not even in Switzerland. Berset said in Moldova that it was important for the Federal Council to adhere strongly and stably to Swiss principles in times of great instability: "That is what we are trying to do." The Russian attack was a serious violation of international law. One cannot insist on the one hand that rules be observed at the international level and then not observe them oneself. This does not mean that nothing can be changed, but it must be done "in an orderly manner". https://archive.ph/AUuQV#selection-2373.0-2391.514

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lUBtxP2ddZM

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P63ns2HfZZw

[Skybird]

For the first time ever the story on investigations on the Nord Stream 2 Sabotage pointing at at least one Ukrainian suspect have made it into German state propanda TV, second channel. It was on the main news show today ("ZDF Heute", that is the one of the two major news TV programs over here).

The government speaker remained very tight-lipped in a press conference.

A Ukrainian identity of one of the suspects still proves little, he could be a collaborateur with Russia, a traitor to ukraine, therefore.

But if it gets found he acted with knowledge of the government in Kyiv, then the SHTF.

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TT3pr6kKpM8

[mapuc]

If I remember correctly Zelenskyy never gave a date on when this offensive should begin.

I think it's more us, who have somehow inserted a time period where it should start.

How we came to the conclusion that it should begin in the spring I don't know.

The offensive will come-When and where only Zelenskyy and other top generals know.

Though longer they wait though deeper the Russians dig them self down.

Markus

[Dargo]

If I remember correctly Zelenskyy never gave a date on when this offensive should begin.

I think it's more us, who have somehow inserted a time period where it should start.

How we came to the conclusion that it should begin in the spring I don't know.

The offensive will come-When and where only Zelenskyy and other top generals know.

Though longer they wait though deeper the Russians dig them self down.

MarkusLate spring, it becomes dry weather that is where they gave this timetable but not by all the military I hear of are saying that June could be a start they do not take only weather (ground conditions) they also need all in place, trained and enough in reserve. As matter of fact the last weeks Ukraine had heavy rain so that takes a while till ground conditions are good for an offensive.

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0SwN6Tr8zDs

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dQbCOYnp_fA

[Catfish]

Nothing new, the "far right" loves Putin, regardless which country. Of course the idea of having a strong monarch/leader/Fuehrer/potentate suits them all.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5SBWDVaWU0o

[em2nought]

It's hard to pick someplace to land that's not near, or enveloped by stupendous stupidity. I figure nowhere is safe in Europe or USA. Montenegro is too near the current craziness. I want to go to Thailand, but impending Taiwan disaster gives me pause to live under Chinese thumb which Thailand sort of is. Maybe I should go to Paraguay. Might be safe from limited nuclear war or Chinese occupation. :hmmm:

[Dargo]

It's hard to pick someplace to land that's not near, or enveloped by stupendous stupidity. I figure nowhere is safe in Europe or USA. Montenegro is too near the current craziness. I want to go to Thailand, but impending Taiwan disaster gives me pause to live under Chinese thumb which Thailand sort of is. Maybe I should go to Paraguay. Might be safe from limited nuclear war or Chinese occupation. :hmmm:Rong thread?

[em2nought]

Rong thread?

Don't they all tie together? :03:

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CreSgYCKstM

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tZ6KEZNPxPA

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rXyonEl1uzQ

[mapuc]

Ukraine's Ministry of Defense published a video on June 4 saying that "plans love silence" and that "there will be no announcement about the beginning," presumably of the upcoming much-anticipated counteroffensive.

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1665311614516559874

Markus

[Reece]

It's hard to pick someplace to land that's not near, or enveloped by stupendous stupidity. I figure nowhere is safe in Europe or USA. Montenegro is too near the current craziness. I want to go to Thailand, but impending Taiwan disaster gives me pause to live under Chinese thumb which Thailand sort of is. Maybe I should go to Paraguay. Might be safe from limited nuclear war or Chinese occupation. :hmmm:
Welcome to Australia!! :yep:

[Skybird]

Russia says it thwarted major Ukrainian offensive.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65806152


Lets hope its an exaggerated Russian lie. But as I warned in the past: the Ukrainian taks will not automatically see a successful outcome. Russia learns slowly only and adapts slowly only. But it DOES learn and adapt, and different to Cherson last year they had months and months to prepare defences. they learned to use drones, and their numerical artillery superiority is still fearsome. And by past reports in Western media they should have run out of missiles and cruise missiles already months ago.

[mapuc]

^ I think they could somehow be correct when they said they killed 250 soldiers and destroyed 16 tanks.

It is been said that you need 3:1 in an offensive and the cost is high-especially in a modern war.

I have no doubt that the Ukrainian will succeed in the end..But it will be with a huge cost in life and material.

It wouldn't surprise me if the Russian ran away when the Ukrainian started the offensive.

Markus

[Skybird]

Russia says it thwarted major Ukrainian offensive.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65806152


Lets hope its an exaggerated Russian lie. But as I warned in the past: the Ukrainian taks will not automatically see a successful outcome. Russia learns slowly only and adapts slowly only. But it DOES learn and adapt, and different to Cherson last year they had months and months to prepare defences. they learned to use drones, and their numerical artillery superiority is still fearsome. And by past reports in Western media they should have run out of missiles and cruise missiles already months ago.
[FAZ]
In contrast, Russian field commander Alexander Khodakovsky contradicts Moscow's success reports about the failure of a major Ukrainian offensive in the Donbass. So far, the enemy is "accompanied by success," Khodakovsky wrote on his Telegram channel on Monday. According to his account, the attacks west of Wuhledar were a limited tactical operation by the Ukrainians. Khodakovsky had headed the separatists' "Vostok" brigade in the Donbass region since 2014. His units were incorporated into the Russian National Guard after the war of aggression against Ukraine began.
Initially, the Ukrainian troops had given the impression of increasing the pressure on the front section Velyka Novosilka, where they had already succeeded in breaking through on Sunday. Meanwhile, a shock troop had advanced almost unnoticed further east near the locality of Novodonezke. "Traditionally disrupting radio communications, the enemy has managed to put us in a difficult position," Khodakovsky wrote. The situation is in flux, he added.

I hope my pessimism was premature.

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aGhbJwlxk0M

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qj5taEOGDi4

[Reece]

I think it's about time for the west to give some tactical nukes to Ukraine!! :yep:

Most annoying how Putin can have 2 other countries fighting Ukraine but Ukraine can't have any anyone else or go over the border to Russia, seems stupid!! :timeout:

[mapuc]

I think it's about time for the west to give some tactical nukes to Ukraine!! :yep:

Most annoying how Putin can have 2 other countries fighting Ukraine but Ukraine can't have any anyone else or go over the border to Russia, seems stupid!! :timeout:

I guess it's the reason to why we send so much military aid to Ukraine.

They, Ukraine gonna win this war, it may take some years, in the end they will and not as some of my friends are saying: They gonna lose the war. No way they can beat these hundred of thousands Russian soldiers

Furthermore-The west will not allow Russia to win this.

Markus

[Jimbuna]

Russia says it thwarted major Ukrainian offensive

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65806152

[August]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qj5taEOGDi4


Of course he will. Better than the political problems he'd encounter having his people get ground up in Ukraine.

[August]

Russia says it thwarted major Ukrainian offensive

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65806152


In the first sentence of the article it changes from an offensive to an attack. The truth probably is that they repelled a Johnny detail.





Russia's defence ministry says it has thwarted a major Ukrainian attack in Donetsk, in the latest sign that a wider counter-offensive may have begun.


Video of what Russia says is the battle shows military vehicles under heavy fire in fields. Russia claims it killed 300 troops and destroyed 16 tanks.


However Moscow's claims have not been independently verified.


And on Monday, Ukraine's military said it had no information about a major attack in the region.


"We do not have such information and we do not comment on any kind of fake," a Ukrainian army spokesperson told Reuters.

[Skybird]

Compare:

Russia says it thwarted major Ukrainian offensive.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65806152


Russia says it thwarted major Ukrainian offensive

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65806152

Spot the difference! :D

[Skybird]

[Focus]
Newsticker, 16:30: Ukraine's counteroffensive has started. Kiev has confirmed this. Since Sunday morning, combat units have been testing the Russian defense lines in the south of the country. Advances in the regions of Zaporizhzhya and Donetsk are verified by "Bild" with recent video footage from drones. There, Ukrainian forces advanced up to 500 meters.

In the video footage, Ukrainian T-64 tanks and MaxxPro armored vehicles can be seen approaching the Russian front and firing at close range. Russia sent numerous T-80 tanks into the fray in response.

The attacks are so-called "probing attacks," test attacks on enemy lines to learn their reaction.

Kiev has so far only said that the armed forces are "moving to offensive actions." Moscow had previously spoken of a large-scale counteroffensive by Kiev. According to Russia, more than 900 Ukrainians were killed on all fronts within 24 hours, according to army spokesman Igor Konashenkov on Monday.

However, reports from Russian officers on the frontline cast doubt on those figures. Kiev initially did not confirm the losses and spoke of a disinformation campaign to demoralize Ukrainians. For the most part, such information cannot be independently verified.

[Skybird]

It has begun.


https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/06/05/ukraines-counter-offensive-appears-to-have-begun


Has it? The author seems to think so. I think its possible but still too early to say for sure. Probably it has begun. But confirmation is pending.

[Dargo]

It has begun.


https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/06/05/ukraines-counter-offensive-appears-to-have-begun


Has it? The author seems to think so. I think its possible but still too early to say for sure. Probably it has begun. But confirmation is pending.The current battle movements are different from earlier, in recent weeks we saw a lot of fighting in depth, away from the frontline. Now we are really seeing fighting on and around the frontline. And not only there, but also in the north we are seeing fighting. So those are indeed indications that there is more going on than some occasional fighting. We are, I think, really in the first phase of the offensive. Ukraine will undoubtedly attack in more places than one, if it is really true. It will really take a few days before we know that the offensive is underway, and especially before we know where the center of gravity is, before knowing where Ukraine wants to break through.

[August]

The current battle movements are different from earlier, in recent weeks we saw a lot of fighting in depth, away from the frontline. Now we are really seeing fighting on and around the frontline. And not only there, but also in the north we are seeing fighting. So those are indeed indications that there is more going on than some occasional fighting. We are, I think, really in the first phase of the offensive. Ukraine will undoubtedly attack in more places than one, if it is really true. It will really take a few days before we know that the offensive is underway, and especially before we know where the center of gravity is, before knowing where Ukraine wants to break through.


Yep they may not know exactly where themselves until their probing attacks reveal where the Russians are the weakest.

[mapuc]

I thought they would concentrate their forces and attack a small part of the frontline...E.g Donbass region or in Kherson region in order to cut of supply lines by cutting the Russian forces in two or three.

Attacking over the entire frontline was not expected.

Markus

[Dargo]

I thought they would concentrate their forces and attack a small part of the frontline...E.g Donbass region or in Kherson region in order to cut of supply lines by cutting the Russian forces in two or three.

Attacking over the entire frontline was not expected.

MarkusThis is to test where the Russians are weak after this Ukraine will concentrate where they think they can break the Russian lines

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iXvo4RZ6GEc

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x43aKZIhiVU

[Dargo]

I thought they would concentrate their forces and attack a small part of the frontline...E.g Donbass region or in Kherson region in order to cut of supply lines by cutting the Russian forces in two or three.

Attacking over the entire frontline was not expected.

MarkusMuch of the original reporting on where Ukraine is probing is exactly where the Russians might have expected them to attack and where the Russians had strong positions. The Ukrainians are excellent at controlling the information space, and one of the ways they do this is to saturate it with lots of different noises.

[Dargo]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x43aKZIhiVUThat images emerge of burning tanks and armored fighting vehicles does not immediately indicate failure the first phase of the counter-offensive will be difficult and painful anyway. We have not yet seen the brigades trained by western allies in action, although that could change very soon.

[Jimbuna]

Well the sooner the better as far as I'm concerned.

[mapuc]

It's not like watching a Hollywood made war movie where one can follow the war in detail.

Here we have to trust our different news agencies when it comes to this offensive and whether it is successful or not.

Hopefully they will have huge success and the Ruskies will be running with their tail between their legs.

Markus

[mapuc]

https://twitter.com/MikaelValterss1/status/1665752852671627264

The ukrainian side is still quiet about the fighting. They will probably say that this is the beginning of the Counteroffensive if they are successful with moderate losses. If not successful, they will probably bury this operation in silence. But the use of Leopards and the capture of Novodonetske should get ukrainian attention.

Markus

[Otto Harkaman]

I would keep up these harassment drone attacks. Pretend my large offensive was eminent, but just build my reserves and defenses. Wait for all these Western tanks that won't be in enough number with trained crews and maintenance crews until next year.

Is a large blitzkrieg style attack even possible under the circumstances? I think only such attack can work at the unset of a war with an unprepared enemy. Its not WWI trench warfare per say but enough like it that its hard to budge or punch through the defensive line of the enemy without suffering huge loses.

[Dargo]

Leaked Ukraine counteroffensive.

https://i.postimg.cc/Kcpm7jHK/leakukrmap.jpg

[mapuc]

^ :har: :har:

Markus

[Skybird]

I assume the big offensive will look different than most people maybe think. The Ukrainians do not have the big numbers necessary for a classic offensive.

[mapuc]

Here is an example on exaggerated fake news.

Russian state media RIA Novosti about the events in Donetsk region.

"The total losses of Ukrainian troops amounted to more than 1,500 personnel, 28 tanks, including 8 Leopards made in Germany, 3 wheeled tanks AMX-10 made in France and 109 armored fighting vehicles".

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1665830492782972931

As one wrote in the comment field-Turn it around and it would be more true.

Markus

[Exocet25fr]

Kakhovka dam attack!

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65818705

[Jimbuna]

The latest in a long growing list of war crimes.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wwtrx8AdfEw

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AmjkEsz-5ew

[Skybird]

I am not certain that it was delberate Russian intent. Possible, but not proven. The Neue Zürcher Zeitung has some good reasoning on the possible scenarios:

----------

The water of the second largest Ukrainian reservoir floods huge areas, while upstream it is now suddenly missing. Who or what is responsible for the destruction remains speculative - but a deliberate blow-up would require a great deal of cynicism.

The breach of the Kakhovka dam in southern Ukraine has caused dramatic flooding within hours. Videos show how various pieces of the once 22-meter-high dam are now lying amid the floodwaters. Water from Ukraine's second-largest reservoir, which holds a maximum of 18.2 billion cubic meters, is pouring uncontrollably into the Black Sea.
Ukraine accused Russia of blowing up the dam with terrorist intent. EU Council President Charles Michel also announced that Moscow would be held accountable for this "war crime." The dam and electricity plant have been under Russian occupation since last year.

The local representative of the Russian occupation authorities, on the other hand, spoke of an explosion in the early hours of the morning for which Kiev was responsible. After the Tass news agency initially wrote only of a "destruction" without shelling, late in the morning it suspected a Ukrainian attack with multiple rocket launchers behind it. A video of an explosion is also circulating on the Internet. However, this is from November 2022.

According to the authorities, the water level in the second largest reservoir along the so-called Dnipro Cascade is dropping by 15 centimeters per hour. 80 localities are expected to be flooded. Since the dam is located directly on the southern front, both Ukrainian-controlled and Russian-occupied towns and villages are affected. The Ukrainians spoke of 16,000 people living in the "critical zone," the Russians of 22,000.
However, the Russian-occupied territories on the left bank of the Dnipro River are likely to be more exposed to flooding due to the topography. While the Moscow-installed mayor of Nova Kakhovka initially downplayed the danger, pictures show that the town next to the dam is meters under water. Settlements downstream are also flooded.

Evacuations have already begun in Ukrainian-controlled areas. Parts of the city of Kherson are also under water.

It remains unclear for the time being who or what is responsible for the destruction of the dam. An accident seems quite plausible, as the level had been at a record high for some time. The American journalist Geoff Brumfiel assumes that the Russian occupiers did not properly handle the water masses accumulated by the melting snow. As evidence, he cites, among other things, satellite images showing how the road on the dam was washed away as early as the beginning of June.

Presumably, the crossing and the power plant had also already been damaged during the fighting around Kherson last fall. At that time, the Ukrainians launched a rocket attack on the road next to it. During their withdrawal from the right bank of the Dnipro River, the Russians also detonated an explosive charge. There has also been recent fighting in the area, though apparently not in the immediate vicinity of the dam.

If either side blew up the dam, both Ukrainians and Russians would have potential motives. By causing flooding, Moscow could make it more difficult for the enemy to advance as part of the counteroffensive. Further downstream, the Ukrainians have repeatedly attempted to establish bridgeheads on the left bank of the Dnipro River in recent months.
However, Russian propagandists such as Igor Girkin also immediately turned this argument around, saying that Kiev had blown up the dam in order to submerge Russian defensive positions and minefields. In addition, they argued that this would cut off the annexed Crimean peninsula from its water supply. Therefore, control over the pumping stations at the Kakhovka Dam for the supply of the rain-deprived annexed peninsula was one of Russia's main war aims.

There are already warnings from the occupation authorities in Crimea about problems with drinking water, and on social networks there is talk of tankers running in the town of Kerch. However, the large Ukrainian city of Krivi Rih, 150 kilometers from Kherson, also reports difficulties and hoarding of drinking water. In any case, the Ukrainians would be cutting their own flesh: The reservoirs on the Dnipro, especially that of Kakhovka, provide water for populations and agriculture throughout southern Ukraine.

Even if the scenario of a deliberate Russian or Ukrainian attack presupposed a considerable degree of cynicism, it would not be without precedent: Soviet power deliberately conceived dams and lakes on the Dnipro as objects of military defense. Blowing up dams slowed the Wehrmacht's advance on Kiev during World War II. In March 2022, Ukrainians flooded areas around the capital, preventing its conquest.

Whether an accident or an attack, the consequences are still hard to predict and are likely to be catastrophic. Tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands, are affected. Upstream, an artificial lake with an area of almost 2200 square kilometers is now emptying within a very short time. This is also a disaster for flora and fauna. In addition, huge amounts of fresh water are now pouring into the Black Sea.

The Zaporizhia nuclear power plant also draws cooling water from the Kakhovka dam. At least the International Atomic Energy Agency declared on Tuesday morning that there was no immediate risk. The six reactors have been shut down for months because of the fighting and would only be at risk in the event of a complete loss of water.
---------------

Anyhow: no mechanized assault in the affected regions, no offensive on Cherson. Sweet water reservoirs on Crimea are described by Russian authorities to be full 80%, whcih probbaly means it is less. Maybe its a good idea to take out the Kerch bridge next instead of leaving it open so that Russians can flee.



If the dam was mishandled by the Russians, then this shows that acicdents are possible and so it can happen at Saporischschja as well.

[Jimbuna]

Even though I don't consider myself a gambling man I'd put my money on the Russians being primarily responsible.

[Skybird]

Most loikely it were a Russian attack, yes, but that is not proven, "responsible" they are in any case, they started the war and they hold the dam and powerplant occupied. If they would have left Ukraine alone, nothing of all this would have happened.


An offensive over the river Dnipro below the dam seems to be impossible now.



The NZZ article says that the Sovjets planned their dams in a way that they could use them in war in right the way the Russian probably now have done.

[Jimbuna]

Most loikely it were a Russian attack, yes, but that is not proven, "responsible" they are in any case, they started the war and they hold the dam and powerplant occupied. If they would have left Ukraine alone, nothing of all this would have happened.


An offensive over the river Dnipro below the dam seems to be impossible now.



The NZZ article says that the Sovjets planned their dams in a way that they could use them in war in right the way the Russian probably now have done.

Precisely! :yep:

[Skybird]

https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-06-06-23/h_df20c4d4b78eb99d7f531a08b4bb3445


As I said before, it is not certain that Russian attacks destroyed the dam.

[mapuc]

I do not know who did it-What I do know is that both side has benefits and negative from getting the dam destroyed.

Depending on where people stands they accuse one of them.

Markus

[Dargo]

Ukrainian hydropower company Ukrhydroenergo says the dam was destroyed by an explosion in the engine room. That is located on the eastern side of the dam, and images confirm that part collapsed. Satellite images from the company Maxar yesterday also show how a section of the road over the dam has been removed, whereas it was still there a week ago.

https://i.postimg.cc/RCDbzMp3/dam.webp

Ukraine has for several weeks accused the Russian occupation forces of keeping the level of the reservoir artificially high by keeping the dam's valves closed. Independent water level data confirmed that the water level had suddenly risen very sharply in recent weeks to record levels not seen since measurements began in 1992. In the weeks before, just the opposite happened and the Russians seemed to have kept the water level artificially low, to more than two meters below average. If pressure caused the dam to burst, that may have been the Russians' intention. The Ukrainian army may now face a huge problem just as it is ramping up its counteroffensive. A large-scale attack in this region was very difficult anyway due to the wide river and lack of bridges. Now that the dam has burst, and the whole region is underwater, that option becomes completely impossible.

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0RfatapPuig

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3cNmJkJoLrM

[mapuc]

More on this Nord Stream thing

Details about the plan, which have not been previously reported, were collected by a European intelligence service and shared with the CIA in June 2022. They provide some of the most specific evidence to date linking the government of Ukraine to the eventual attack in the Baltic Sea, which U.S. and Western officials have called a brazen and dangerous act of sabotage on Europe’s energy infrastructure.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/06/06/nord-stream-pipeline-explosion-ukraine-russia/

Markus

[Jimbuna]

US has intelligence confirming Russia’s guilt in Kakhovka HPP bombing - NBC

At the same time, NBC clarifies that the administration of US President Joe Biden is already working to declassify the intelligence and make it public today, June 6.

[Catfish]

^ seems right

[...]
3. At 6:51 in Nova Kakhovka, they see that the dam is a complete ass, and the mom's stratagems start to realize that they are in trouble. The mayor of Nova Kakhovka abruptly changes his rhetoric and says there was no explosion, it was a shelling by the Ukrainian army. Link http://archive.ph/LFFKF

[...]
5. Other telegram channels that cooperate with the military are happily hopping on one leg, cheering, because of the undermining of the Kakhovka dam, the positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the islands are flooded, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are trying to evacuate and escape, and then they publish joyful reports of how they are hitting the positions of our guys on the islands. 08:25 Link http://archive.ph/c0iHL

6. Here, the Russians are slowly realizing that they have created a large-scale man-made environmental disaster, almost as large as Chernobyl. And they are starting to reverse. Russian influence on the information space is changing its tone dramatically. They instantly change their tune and start accusing the Ukrainian side of provocations. [...]

https://twitter.com/VolodyaTretyak/status/1666015265971118082?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5 Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1666015265971118082%7Ctwgr% 5E8165894858b7150359880346a6a007b06b124b16%7Ctwcon %5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fs9e.github.io%2Fiframe%2Ftwi tter.min.html1666015265971118082

Also:

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1665974996311605250?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5 Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1665974996311605250%7Ctwgr% 5E47892726c9e74a43a02913f6d20cfc99b1ead08b%7Ctwcon %5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fs9e.github.io%2Fiframe%2Ftwi tter.min.html1665974996311605250

The usual russian maskirovka.
People like them are always "sorry". And always too late.

[Skybird]

One could interprete the events as Russia's confession that it realises it cannot further conquer more of Ukraine and cannot keep what it already took. They now switch to the thinking of "If we cannot take it, then we destroy it so that they cannot own it any longer, too."

This was always a war of annihilating Ukraine and Ukrainians. Putin said so from before the war on, when he rejected any right of Ukraine and Ukrainians to even exist.

--------------

The Nord Stream 2 thing turns slowly against Ukraine, it seems. If in the end they find Ukraine having given the order for this strike on the pipelines, then this is the one event that will make me reversing 180° and wanting to immediately stop all German support of any kind, immediately. It would be a total no-go to strike infrastructure of another supposed friendly nation whom one demands to help onself, and while raising this demand bombing its pipelines. Unforgivable. In that case I would say: let Ukraine see for itself how to get through this. No more money, no more repairs, no more ammo, no more tanks, nothing. All that is already in transit to Ukraine - reverse and RTB. I wouldn't forgive such betrayal. Its not even about the pipeline in the first. Its about the betrayal itself.

For the moment, again this warning: it could be a false flag operation by the Russians, designed to blame Ukraine. This must be ruled out.

[August]

Who owns the Norstream pipelines? Russia or Germany?

[mapuc]

Specsavers would be a good place to go for these pilots

This Russian Ka-52 attack chopper crew thought that they have targeted and destroyed Leopard 2 tanks (you read this correctly).
Even a semi-professional can clearly see that this are agricultural harvester and sprayer machines.

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1666106391025664005

Markus

[Dargo]

Who owns the Norstream pipelines? Russia or Germany?The five shareholders of the Nord Stream consortium are Gazprom international projects North 1 LLC (Gazprom Group company), Wintershall Dea AG, PEG Infrastruktur AG (E. ON), N.V. Nederlandse Gasunie and ENGIE. Gazprom international projects North 1 LLC holds a 51 percent stake in the pipeline project.

[August]

The five shareholders of the Nord Stream consortium are Gazprom international projects North 1 LLC (Gazprom Group company), Wintershall Dea AG, PEG Infrastruktur AG (E. ON), N.V. Nederlandse Gasunie and ENGIE. Gazprom international projects North 1 LLC holds a 51 percent stake in the pipeline project.


So majority owned by the Russians then.

[Dargo]

One could interprete the events as Russia's confession that it realises it cannot further conquer more of Ukraine and cannot keep what it already took. They now switch to the thinking of "If we cannot take it, then we destroy it so that they cannot own it any longer, too."

This was always a war of annihilating Ukraine and Ukrainians. Putin said so from before the war on, when he rejected any right of Ukraine and Ukrainians to even exist.

--------------

The Nord Stream 2 thing turns slowly against Ukraine, it seems. If in the end they find Ukraine having given the order for this strike on the pipelines, then this is the one event that will make me reversing 180° and wanting to immediately stop all German support of any kind, immediately. It would be a total no-go to strike infrastructure of another supposed friendly nation whom one demands to help onself, and while raising this demand bombing its pipelines. Unforgivable. In that case I would say: let Ukraine see for itself how to get through this. No more money, no more repairs, no more ammo, no more tanks, nothing. All that is already in transit to Ukraine - reverse and RTB. I wouldn't forgive such betrayal. Its not even about the pipeline in the first. Its about the betrayal itself.

For the moment, again this warning: it could be a false flag operation by the Russians, designed to blame Ukraine. This must be ruled out.What Russia is doing are acts of desperation in no war, the bombing/killing of civilians worked not in WWII or Vietnam.

[Catfish]

What Russia is doing are acts of desperation in no war, the bombing/killing of civilians worked not in WWII or Vietnam.
Tell this to the 'british'. When the unrestricted aerial warfare on german civilians started (tm Bomber Harris, but not only) the only result was that even germans who had opposed the nazi régime began to question and even hate the british. Not that this was ever realized in England.

The city of Hannover had always thought of England as a befriended people, probably derived from the time of the personal union when there was a german-english monarch ruling until 1837. The citizens would never have thought to be bombed by just of all England, even during WW2. They had to change their minds. Seems England did not have so much interest in history while being confronted with some Hitler :O:

Could it be there are parallels with the russian war.

end of OT :03:

[mapuc]

It has been solved who was behind the bombing/explosion of this Dam.

So you don't have to ponder on who or why and our Intelligens can take a rest to the end of the year.

I give you, told by some FB friends-The real cause and who's behind it.

It was Ukraine.

And then a long list of why they did it.

(Just wanted to share it with you that ordinary people already knows who's behind it and why.)

Markus

[Catfish]

^ maybe, or maybe not.
Without evidence there is no proof.
"Facebook" or META, my .. behind.

[August]

It has been solved who was behind the bombing/explosion of this Dam.

So you don't have to ponder on who or why and our Intelligens can take a rest to the end of the year.

I give you, told by some FB friends-The real cause and who's behind it.

It was Ukraine.

And then a long list of why they did it.

(Just wanted to share it with you that ordinary people already knows who's behind it and why.)

Markus


Screw the Russians and screw anyone who takes their side in this war.


https://i.imgur.com/pc2E6wO.png


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U7942JY_lik

[Skybird]

I just listened to a podcast with Colonel Reisner from Austria again. He said that in the past 48 hours (~ 48 hours ago) the Ukrainians had tried an amphibic assault south of Cherson and wanted ot land forces south of the city, he think its possible that the Russians blew up the dam in an attempt to spoil that plan and push the ukrainian landing attempt back.

[mapuc]

Screw the Russians and screw anyone who takes their side in this war.

I fully understand you, I feel the same way.

Every evidence points at Russia.

Markus

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t-HLyoSD5lg

[Jimbuna]

If true, the contents of this video are really quite worrying.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=igB0By6vT9Y

[mapuc]

^^
In his todays video he mentioned that the leader of the Wagner group was talking about using nukes-Not against Ukraine or NATO, but against other Russians in Russia.

This made me think. Not doubt that we are heading towards some kind of a civil war in Russia and where nukes are being used !!?

Markus

[Reece]

^^
In his todays video he mentioned that the leader of the Wagner group was talking about using nukes-Not against Ukraine or NATO, but against other Russians in Russia.

This made me think. Not doubt that we are heading towards some kind of a civil war in Russia and where nukes are being used !!?

Markus
Good grief Markus, not sure whether to :Kaleun_Applaud: or :k_confused:

[Skybird]

Practically all media now have agreed to the narrative that external forces of nature and previosu damage sot the dam alone could not have led to the breaching, and that the destruction results from an explsion form inside the dam. Together this rates as practical evidence, AFAICS, that the dem was indeed blown up by Russia, sinc eonly Russian troops had access to the dam in the past months. The amphibous assault attempt south of Cherson and the overall offensive of the ukriane, a swell as the historic porecedences, the deliberate planning of the Siovjat Union ti use dams as trioggerable obstacles againmst enemy attacks, anbd the genweral disrespect of Russia for human life, that of civilians and that of even its own soldiers alike, provide a convincing the motive.

However, a surprise this action cannot have been to anyone. I already asked about the dam last late summer when the Ukrainians had their first offensive out of the starting block. The Ukrainian authorities in plac obviously alos were not surprised, but had plans prepared in the past months.

In a bitter way this even could work for Ukraine in a scenario where they lack the power to retake ground by force and must try to retake Crimea by besieging it. If they then also destroy the Kerch bridge completely, no more sweet water will go into Crimea. Russian autorities say the regional reservoirs currently are filled to 80%, which means, translated from the Russian into realistic language, that it probably is less. The bad side of it: not only Russian occupiers will be thirsty, but civilians as well (many of them being pro-Russian, Crimea was, before the war, the only oblast where a clearly identified majority of people of I think around 56% were pro-Russian: to what degree this has changed upwards or downwards I have no clue, in Odessa for example even a huge majority of former pro-Russians were turned by Russian actions into strong supporters of the Ukrainian cause, and turned against Russia). Also, like flooding and washout from it, dry erosion also destroys fertile agricultural farmland, that once destroyed takes generations and generations to be rebuild. This also could be an explanation why the Russians destroyed the dam: because they expect to be not able to keep Crimea, so they leave just scorched earth.

[Jimbuna]

Never mind the dam, watch the video posted in #11234 from 8 minutes onwards.

[Skybird]

https://www-die--tagespost-de.translate.goog/kultur/feuilleton/begleitet-von-chaos-art-238321?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp



But Washington's strategy also seems to be delaying a quick end to the war: the Americans will only ever supply Ukraine with as much in weapons as is needed to even out the imbalance on the battlefield, says Colonel Reisner. "The U.S. doesn't want to humiliate the Russians, it just wants to show them that there is no point in the war." The Americans did not want to "corner the Russians," but rather to prevent escalation. And not only to avoid a geographic expansion of hostilities: "No one can want Russia to disintegrate," Markus Reisner said, because, "What happens to the thousands of nuclear weapons then?"

[Skybird]

^^
In his todays video he mentioned that the leader of the Wagner group was talking about using nukes-Not against Ukraine or NATO, but against other Russians in Russia.

This made me think. Not doubt that we are heading towards some kind of a civil war in Russia and where nukes are being used !!?

Markus


[FR]
In a video interview with the Donbass Today telegram channel, he [Prigoschin) said, "I am afraid that they are toying with the idea of dropping a small nuclear bomb on their own territory. It's scary to drop it on foreign territory, but we can hit our own to show how sick and psychotic we are." Thus, he said, the nuclear strike could be aimed at a Russian village in the Belgorod region, which in the future would be occupied by forces from Ukraine.

We must make sure to catch it on video, and then broadcast it across all Russia.

[mapuc]

^ Thank you

Markus

[Jimbuna]

So easy to blame someone who's hardly in a position to defend themselves.

The grinding conflict in Ukraine would not have happened had Angela Merkel not barred Kyiv from joining NATO in 2008, an expert believes. The former German Chancellor expressed her view during the Bucharest summit, and was supported in the decision by the then French President Nikolas Sarkozy. At the time, Ukraine and Georgia's aspiration to be part of the Western military alliance were welcomed, and it was agreed the nations would eventually become NATO members - but it was said the political conditions needed to join had not been met yet.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/russia-would-not-have-invaded-ukraine-if-angela-merkel-hadn-t-blocked-bid-to-join-nato/ar-AA1cf0QN?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=f0955bcad7c14b0192371dd76b5706ee&ei=10

[Dargo]

Practically all media now have agreed to the narrative that external forces of nature and previosu damage sot the dam alone could not have led to the breaching, and that the destruction results from an explsion form inside the dam. Together this rates as practical evidence, AFAICS, that the dem was indeed blown up by Russia, sinc eonly Russian troops had access to the dam in the past months. The amphibous assault attempt south of Cherson and the overall offensive of the ukriane, a swell as the historic porecedences, the deliberate planning of the Siovjat Union ti use dams as trioggerable obstacles againmst enemy attacks, anbd the genweral disrespect of Russia for human life, that of civilians and that of even its own soldiers alike, provide a convincing the motive.

However, a surprise this action cannot have been to anyone. I already asked about the dam last late summer when the Ukrainians had their first offensive out of the starting block. The Ukrainian authorities in plac obviously alos were not surprised, but had plans prepared in the past months.

In a bitter way this even could work for Ukraine in a scenario where they lack the power to retake ground by force and must try to retake Crimea by besieging it. If they then also destroy the Kerch bridge completely, no more sweet water will go into Crimea. Russian autorities say the regional reservoirs currently are filled to 80%, which means, translated from the Russian into realistic language, that it probably is less. The bad side of it: not only Russian occupiers will be thirsty, but civilians as well (many of them being pro-Russian, Crimea was, before the war, the only oblast where a clearly identified majority of people of I think around 56% were pro-Russian: to what degree this has changed upwards or downwards I have no clue, in Odessa for example even a huge majority of former pro-Russians were turned by Russian actions into strong supporters of the Ukrainian cause, and turned against Russia). Also, like flooding and washout from it, dry erosion also destroys fertile agricultural farmland, that once destroyed takes generations and generations to be rebuild. This also could be an explanation why the Russians destroyed the dam: because they expect to be not able to keep Crimea, so they leave just scorched earth.

During the Battle of Kyiv, Ukrainian forces blew the Kazarovychi dam up to stop the advance of Russian forces towards Dymydiv and Dymer this dam is 50 meters long. They tried it twice, first time with 1000 kg of TNT + UR-77 it did nothing, just a crater. Second time, 800 kg of TNT has been placed in the crater made by the 1st explosion + UR-77 again. The second explosion managed to destroy the lock only, not the structure itself. The Kachovka dam was under total control of the Russians, could only be destroyed from the inside (with hell lot more of explosions than the Kazarovychi dam) this dam is build it could withhold a nuclear attack. How did Ukrainian forces destroy it with GMLR, artillery or whatever?

[Dargo]

Switzerland Supports Allows Arms Re-Export to Ukraine
Switzerland's Council of States, the upper house of parliament, has approved an amendment that will allow arms re-export to Ukraine.

"Countries that purchase Swiss war material should be allowed, subject to conditions, to re-export it to countries involved in armed conflicts," the parliament press service stated.

The decision is taken by 22 in favor and 17 against votes, with four abstentions.

According to the amendment, purchaser countries of Swiss weapons will still have to sign a declaration prohibiting re-export, but its term may be limited to five years. Re-export will only be possible to destination countries that do not violate human rights and do not use weapons against civilian populations.

On June 1, the National Council, the lower house of the Swiss parliament, voted against an amendment that would allow the re-export of Swiss-made weaponry to third countries, such as Ukraine.

Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, several countries have approached Switzerland requesting permission to re-export Swiss weapons from their arsenal to Kyiv.

For example, Germany wanted to provide ammunition for Gepard anti-aircraft systems and machine gun ammunition to Ukraine. Denmark approached Bern for permission to supply Piranha III armoured personnel carriers to Ukraine. However, Switzerland rejected both requests, which drew international criticism. https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/eng/news/2023/06/7/7163221/

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oNCk9utvLso

[Skybird]

During the Battle of Kyiv, Ukrainian forces blew the Kazarovychi dam up to stop the advance of Russian forces towards Dymydiv and Dymer this dam is 50 meters long. They tried it twice, first time with 1000 kg of TNT + UR-77 it did nothing, just a crater. Second time, 800 kg of TNT has been placed in the crater made by the 1st explosion + UR-77 again. The second explosion managed to destroy the lock only, not the structure itself. The Kachovka dam was under total control of the Russians, could only be destroyed from the inside (with hell lot more of explosions than the Kazarovychi dam) this dam is build it could withhold a nuclear attack. How did Ukrainian forces destroy it with GMLR, artillery or whatever?
Eh - did I imply they did?

I was just describing that the burden of evidence is against the Russians now, that all seem to agree on this. :03:
Initially there were suggestions that the damage to the dam, visible already several days before, may have caused the collapse. I stayed open to this possibility while the story unfold. But now no more. The evidence seems to be very clear.

I say "seems", intentionally, and often. This is war. Media get manipulated by both sides, intel services are involved from all sides. The news is a war zone. Its important to keep that on mind. See how the story on the Nord Stream 2 pipeline explosions has turned. The scenario that initially was thought to be the most unlikely - is now the main suspect.

[Dargo]

Eh - did I imply they did?

I was just describing that the burden of evidence is against the Russians now, that all seem to agree on this. :03:
Initially there were suggestions that the damage to the dam, visible already several days before, may have caused the collapse. I stayed open to this possibility while the story unfold. But now no more. The evidence seems to be very clear.

I say "seems", intentionally, and often. This is war. Media get manipulated by both sides, intel services are involved from all sides. The news is a war zone. Its important to keep that on mind. See how the story on the Nord Stream 2 pipeline explosions has turned. The scenario that initially was thought to be the most unlikely - is now the main suspect.No, did not mean you implied it point is that this dam is under Russian control if it was the damage or an explosion the Russians are responsible for this disaster they had to take measures to repair this disaster is not only after the dam the whole south of Ukraine face now problems with water supply. I do not think the Russians thought of that or care. About the Nord Stream 2 pipeline explosions, it was the US that was against that from the beginning, so Ukraine main support will be happy if Ukraine pulled that of.

[mapuc]

Will we ever know who did it ?
Yes Russia has most to win on this.

Markus

[Dargo]

Will we ever know who did it ?
Yes Russia has most to win on this.

MarkusI fear not

[Skybird]

https://www.nzz.ch/international/nord-stream-deutsche-politiker-glauben-nicht-an-tat-der-ukraine-ld.1741410?_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_sl=auto