Here we go again-Ukraine once again

[mapuc]

< I support the Ukrainian people I therefore believe what it is said about the Russian offensive.

It's an almost failure.

I can not prove it 110 % I'm convinced that the UA forces are way better in almost everything.

There are those Putin supporters who says the offensive is a success.

Who will win this war ? Personally I hope it's the Ukrainian

How can we know that this is the case ?

Very unlikely-Russia use tactical nukes
Very likely-A Russian collapse and civil war in their country

Markus

[mapuc]

The Russian tactics seems to make the war go on for long so the West gets tired of giving military aid to Ukraine.

Putin initiated the current war and is the key actor who must decide that he cannot achieve his aims by military power and must instead engage in a negotiated resolution of the conflict if the war is to end in this fashion. The war will protract as long as Putin believes that he can impose his will on Ukraine by fighting or by breaking the Ukrainians’ will to fight following their abandonment by the West.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-26-2023

Markus

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7qOqSOdWkvQ

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wOWVCfhBNqE

[Skybird]

The Swiss have opted for that two dozen Leopard-2 of theirs that they already have decommissioned, can be delivered to Grmany. Germany asked for these tanks to refurbish them and to hand them over to Ukraine then.



Thats good news for Kyiv.

[Catfish]

The Swiss have opted for that two dozen Leopard-2 of theirs that they already have decommissioned, can be delivered to Grmany. [...]
But Switzerland will never deliver ammunition for e.g. the Gepard :hmmm:

[Jimbuna]

But Switzerland will never deliver ammunition for e.g. the Gepard :hmmm:

I may be wrong but I believe it is against their law to give armaments to any country engaged in warfare.

[August]

But Switzerland will never deliver ammunition for e.g. the Gepard :hmmm:




Technically the Swiss are just giving the tanks back to your people. They might balk at direct ammo sales but maybe they will sell it to you folks and you can send it to the Ukes instead?

[Skybird]

But Switzerland will never deliver ammunition for e.g. the Gepard :hmmm:
I must precise and must correct myself. The idea is that Rheinmetall buys the Leopards back, refurbishes them and then hands them to a NATO country that has given Leopards to Ukraine. In other words, a "Ringtausch" again. Formalities. Cost time.


https://www.nzz.ch/schweiz/nationalratskommission-hat-entschieden-deutschland-soll-schweizer-panzer-erhalten-ld.1732443

[Rockstar]

Oh oh dissension in the ranks of state tv

https://youtu.be/AiNfWXBbg4A

[Reece]

You always get one Rockstar!! :doh:

[Skybird]

Spanish media get quoted with reporting that 6 Leopard-2A4s will soon be delivered by Spain directly to Ukraine. Ukrainian crews and technicians have been trained in Spain in recent weeks.

[Jimbuna]

Putin may launch nuclear strike 'to cause misery amid Russian failure to conquer Ukraine'

Vladimir Putin could use nuclear weapons in Ukraine if he feels defeat is imminent, a leading think-tank has warned.

Moscow has prompted fresh concern in recent days over its willingness to deploy the devastating weapons, last week announcing it would move nuclear missiles into Belarus before today commencing exercises with its Yars intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) systems.

In a research paper for the UK's leading foreign policy think tank Chatham House, Russia and Eurasia expert Keir Giles warned there is a 'non-zero' chance Putin could seek to use nukes in Ukraine.

He wrote: 'A nuclear strike could be ordered if there is no longer any possibility of claiming conventional victory and a powerful destructive attack on Ukraine is perceived as the only means of avoiding admission of a clear defeat.

'The moment at which Putin feels his options are exhausted is likely to be the most significantly dangerous decision point,' he concluded.

Giles pointed out that nuclear weapons would have very little military utility on the ground in Ukraine, given that the frontline stretches hundreds of miles and that any strike would not only kill Ukrainians, but also irradiate the land and render it uninhabitable for Russian troops.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/putin-may-launch-nuclear-strike-to-cause-misery-amid-russian-failure-to-conquer-ukraine/ar-AA19cNt9?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=42edadb8e44e474e8f06f6fc41b91dff&ei=77

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V49ow_7RqJU

[mapuc]

If he hadn't lost the war before he would now if he use nukes in Ukraine.

He is pressed up in the corner and would he be thinking logically when ordering use of nuke ?

I say no-That's why he doesn't care about his soldiers, only to win.

Markus

[Catfish]

Oh i expect everything is on the table for Putin when things go bad fir him. Using nukes is one thing, but what if he launches them from Belarus?

I do not think anyone will retaliate against Lukashenko and Belarus?

[Jimbuna]

I'm not convinced NATO will respond in kind.

[Skybird]

Putin may launch nuclear strike 'to cause misery amid Russian failure to conquer Ukraine'

Vladimir Putin could use nuclear weapons in Ukraine if he feels defeat is imminent, a leading think-tank has warned.

Moscow has prompted fresh concern in recent days over its willingness to deploy the devastating weapons, last week announcing it would move nuclear missiles into Belarus before today commencing exercises with its Yars intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) systems.

In a research paper for the UK's leading foreign policy think tank Chatham House, Russia and Eurasia expert Keir Giles warned there is a 'non-zero' chance Putin could seek to use nukes in Ukraine.

He wrote: 'A nuclear strike could be ordered if there is no longer any possibility of claiming conventional victory and a powerful destructive attack on Ukraine is perceived as the only means of avoiding admission of a clear defeat.

'The moment at which Putin feels his options are exhausted is likely to be the most significantly dangerous decision point,' he concluded.

Giles pointed out that nuclear weapons would have very little military utility on the ground in Ukraine, given that the frontline stretches hundreds of miles and that any strike would not only kill Ukrainians, but also irradiate the land and render it uninhabitable for Russian troops.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/putin-may-launch-nuclear-strike-to-cause-misery-amid-russian-failure-to-conquer-ukraine/ar-AA19cNt9?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=42edadb8e44e474e8f06f6fc41b91dff&ei=77
The Western public may be stunned by such a stunt, but it is an accelerator to total Russian defeat. NATO must and would not afford to let this go by without a devastating reaction by its own. A no-fly zone would be enforced over Ukraine in short time, and then NATO air superiority would blast the sh1t out of evertyhing Russian on the ground everywhere in Ukraine.

They play the nukie-card as if it were a multiple-use trump card. It isn't. The blade of this threat has become blunt by now. And even if the use nukes, the military signficiance would bve extrenely limited - but the costs would be absolutely devastating. Because if NATO would not do what I desribed above it could say farewell to its role on global history's stage, would rank as a backyard joke only from then on.

Putin will do what he wants to do anyway, no matter what the West does, so I honestly do not care for what he implies, claims, says, threatens with. It does not matter to me anymore. And what he then does in reality is the only thing I care to focus on. Threats do not interest me that much. I make a mark on a tally sheet to keep count, that's all.

[Jimbuna]

Putin stages major nuclear missile exercises involving 3,000 troops in show of strength to the West

Vladimir Putin is staging major nuclear missile exercises involving 3,000 troops in a show of strength to the West.

The Russian despot's troops are staging war games with his 'invincible' Yars intercontinental ballistic missile system in three regions of Russia.

A video shows the Yars missile system - which replaced the Topol - on drills amid his war against Ukraine and high tension with the West.

'In total, more than 3,000 military personnel and about 300 pieces of equipment are involved in the exercises,' Russia's defence ministry said on Wednesday.

The drills involve the Strategic Missile Forces comprehensive control checking of the Omsk missile formation together with a command and staff exercise with the Novosibirsk missile formation equipped with the Yars systems.

During the exercises, the Yars mobile systems will conduct manoeuvres in three Russian regions, the ministry said, without identifying the regions.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/putin-stages-major-nuclear-missile-exercises-involving-3-000-troops-in-show-of-strength-to-the-west/ar-AA19d4Ka?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=37c659464d544e758170daf780dda037&ei=98

[Jimbuna]

British Defense Minister Ben Wallace, referring to US estimates, said that the losses of the Russian Federation in the war against Ukraine already amount to more than 220,000 wounded and killed.

"The latest US estimate of Russian casualties in Ukraine puts the number of Russians dead and wounded at more than 220,000," Wallace said during a briefing with his Swedish counterpart, who is visiting London.

According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces, as of March 29, 2023, 172,340 Russian occupiers have been eliminated.

[Jimbuna]

Are the Russian people being fed propaganda to prepare them into thinking nuclear war isn't a bad thing?

I believe there is currently a strong possibility.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-60525350

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f_zdFWwaWps

[mapuc]

We have three stubborn side in this war.

Russia who want these four region in Ukraine to be part of Russia before sign any peace agreement.

Ukraine wants Russia and it's milits to leave Ukraine all the way back to the 1991 border, which Russia approved before signing any peace agreement.

West/NATO/EU/USA-Are not going to let Russia win under any circumstances(this is the understanding I got from all the news and reading your comments)

Putin is on his way to be pressed up in a corner, if he isn't already there.
An animal who is pressed up in a corner is dangerous and may make an assault(not the correct word I know)against those surrounding the animal.

With this in mind-How will Putin react in his response to being pressed up in a corner and can't get out ?

Some pages back I said it was 0.5 Percentage chance for a nuclear war in Ukraine.
In fact I do not not how low or high the risk is for this to happen.

The question is:
Will we(Ukraine and us)still be stubborn the day we found out that Putin has prepared his nukes to be launched ?
Or
Will we open some doors so Putin can come out from the corner ?

Markus

[Jimbuna]

Nothing beats living in a free society eh?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bboKQy9Ep4g

[Skybird]

Tomorrow begins the Russian chairmanship of the UN Security Council . This is not an April Fool's joke. While this means little influence on the Council's decisions, it does allow Russia to set the agenda. A key event of the Russian presidency would be the Council's high-level public debate on 'effective multilateralism by defending the principles of the UN Charter,' Lavrov's spokeswoman threatened earlier.

[Skybird]

We have three stubborn side in this war.

Russia who want these four region in Ukraine to be part of Russia before sign any peace agreement.


No, they want it all, an d no Ukraine remaining. That was always the goal.

[Skybird]

Nothing beats living in a free society eh?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bboKQy9Ep4g
She must be very careful. Its not to be ruled out that she suddenly dissapears and then triumphantly gets presented at a Russian court again. She has been chosen to execute an example on her, and the propaganda triump for the regime would be even more complete if this "terrorist" gets shown to have been unable to escape and that Russia'S "justice" cannot be dodged by any fleeing "terrorist offender", no matter where.


When she fled I wonder why her husband did not flee with her? The regime could use him to put her under pressure.

[mapuc]

No, they want it all, an d no Ukraine remaining. That was always the goal.

I thought after they lost the battle of Kyiv, they changed their goal to keep these four enklave/region

Seem to recall some article where it's said that Russia demands these four enklave/region in order to agree on a peace treaty

Markus

[Skybird]

Thats what they can currently do: trying to secure these so far occupied territories mfor them. But what they realyl want is all Ukraine, and the annihilation of anythign close to "Ukrainian identity". They want all Ukraine. Its just that currently they cannot get it.



If the yget bthese five occupied regions, they will spend some years reamring. And then start again. Putin thinks that time is working for him, that Western breath will not last long enough and then Western supplies will shrink and will be stopped. Then Russia can go after the rest of Ukraine. Putin thinks that if only he holds out long enough he still can win.



That he also knows that he is a dead man if he admits defeat, does not increase chances for him changing his mind.

[mapuc]

Thats what they can currently do: trying to secure these so far occupied territories mfor them. But what they realyl want is all Ukraine, and the annihilation of anythign close to "Ukrainian identity". They want all Ukraine. Its just that currently they cannot get it.



If the yget bthese five occupied regions, they will spend some years reamring. And then start again. Putin thinks that time is working for him, that Western breath will not last long enough and then Western supplies will shrink and will be stopped. Then Russia can go after the rest of Ukraine. Putin thinks that if only he holds out long enough he still can win.



That he also knows that he is a dead man if he admits defeat, does not increase chances for him changing his mind.

You're right. If he can come after it he would take entire Ukraine.

I forgot in his 3 days special operation in which he had planned on taking Kyiv and take out Zelenskyy and replaced him with a marrionet.

This would not mean the end of the war-Saw a video clip on twitter where some soldier/officer said - The war isn't over even after Ukraine has been occupied. Then we will fight the Russian in guerrilla warfare.

Markus

[Dargo]

Putin admits Western sanctions could hurt Russia’s economy
President Vladimir Putin has conceded that Western sanctions designed to starve the Kremlin of funds for its invasion of Ukraine could deal a blow to Russia’s economy.

“The illegitimate restrictions imposed on the Russian economy may indeed have a negative impact on it in the medium term,” Putin said in televised remarks Wednesday reported by state news agency TASS.

It is a rare admission by the Russian leader, who has repeatedly insisted that Russia’s economy remains resilient and that sanctions have hurt Western countries by driving up inflation and energy prices.

Putin said Russia’s economy had been growing since July, thanks in part to stronger ties with “countries of the East and South,” likely referring to China and some African countries. He also stressed the importance of domestic demand to the economy, saying it was becoming the leading driver of growth.

Russia’s economy has showed surprising resilience to unprecedented sanctions imposed by the West, including an EU ban on most imports of oil products. Preliminary estimates from the Russian government show that economic output shrank by 2.1% last year — a contraction more limited than many economists initially predicted.

Yet while China has thrown the Kremlin an economic lifeline by buying Russian energy and providing an alternative to the US dollar, cracks are starting to appear.

The Russian government’s revenue plunged 35% in January compared with a year ago, while expenditures jumped 59%, leading to a budget deficit of about 1,761 billion rubles ($23.3 billion).

The World Bank and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development are forecasting contractions of 3.3% and 5.6%, respectively, in 2023. The International Monetary Fund expects Russia’s growth to remain flat this year, but for the economy to shrink by at least 7% in the medium term.

In response to Russia’s aggression in Ukraine, Western countries have announced more than 11,300 sanctions since the February 2022 invasion, and frozen some $300 billion of Russia’s foreign reserves.

An outspoken Russian oligarch, Oleg Deripaska, said earlier this month that Russia could find itself with no money as soon as next year.

https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-03-30-23/h_3299921342483dbc0ae125839f555459

[Dargo]

Russia's tactical nuclear weapons have not even been tested since the end of the USSR. None of their military engineers have practical experience with them. They can only rely on manuals in the hope that those ancient nuclear bombs still work. Then they have to move them from one of the 12 arsenals in their country, which our satellites would see, and which would allow our leaders to apply immediate pressure. China is also not pleased with this, they declared that no nuclear weapons would be placed in other countries at their last meeting.

[Jimbuna]

She must be very careful. Its not to be ruled out that she suddenly dissapears and then triumphantly gets presented at a Russian court again. She has been chosen to execute an example on her, and the propaganda triump for the regime would be even more complete if this "terrorist" gets shown to have been unable to escape and that Russia'S "justice" cannot be dodged by any fleeing "terrorist offender", no matter where.


When she fled I wonder why her husband did not flee with her? The regime could use him to put her under pressure.

Her father has been arrested in Minsk

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65129231

[mapuc]

Russia's tactical nuclear weapons have not even been tested since the end of the USSR. None of their military engineers have practical experience with them. They can only rely on manuals in the hope that those ancient nuclear bombs still work. Then they have to move them from one of the 12 arsenals in their country, which our satellites would see, and which would allow our leaders to apply immediate pressure. China is also not pleased with this, they declared that no nuclear weapons would be placed in other countries at their last meeting.

What about their latest developed nuclear missiles like the Satan II

The RS-28 Sarmat (Russian: РС-28 Сармат; NATO reporting name: SATAN 2), is a Russian liquid-fueled, MIRV-equipped, super-heavy thermonuclear armed intercontinental ballistic missile in development by the Makeyev Rocket Design Bureau since 2009 intended to replace the previous R-36 missile. Its large payload would allow for up to 10 heavy warheads or 15 lighter ones or a combination of warheads and massive amounts of countermeasures designed to defeat anti-missile systems. It was heralded by the Russian military as a response to the U.S. Prompt Global Strike.[

Markus

[Jimbuna]

US journalist Evan Gershkovich has been arrested in Russia and accused of spying while working for the Wall Street Journal.

An experienced Russia reporter, he was working in the city of Yekaterinburg at the time of his detention.

The White House has condemned his detention "in the strongest terms".

The Kremlin claimed he had been caught "red-handed" but the Wall Street Journal vehemently denied the allegations against him.

Mr Gershkovich, 31, is well known among foreign correspondents in Moscow and BBC Russia Editor Steve Rosenberg describes him as an excellent reporter and a highly principled journalist.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken echoed the Wall Street Journal in saying he was "deeply concerned" by the arrest. US officials said they had immediately sought access to Mr Gershkovich but had not had any response.

The WSJ said its reporter had dropped out of contact with his editors while working in Yekaterinburg, about 1,600km (1,000 miles) east of Moscow, on Wednesday afternoon.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65121885

[Dargo]

What about their latest developed nuclear missiles like the Satan II



MarkusPutin said it will only deploy tactical nuclear weapons nuclear missiles were not mentioned and these are long ranged already in Kaliningrad Putin knows how to play the game moving the Satan II would be overkill and too dangerous for himself

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UOajXXAuvaY

[Skybird]

Her father has been arrested in Minsk

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65129231
Isn't that another girl, two different stories? The girl of the father arrested in Minsk is in state custody, I heard on TV, a state-run "youth centre". Also, she is just 12 or so.

[mapuc]

Putin said it will only deploy tactical nuclear weapons nuclear missiles were not mentioned and these are long ranged already in Kaliningrad Putin knows how to play the game moving the Satan II would be overkill and too dangerous for himself

And I who thought there's isn't the question on how strong the nuke is but where it is used.

If you use a 1.1 MT nuke on the battle field it's called tactical
If you use a 1.1 MT nuke on a city or other strategic targets-It's called strategic

I could be wrong thou, I'm taking it from memory(read it on a wiki page some years ago)

Markus

[Dargo]

Isn't that another girl, two different stories? The girl of the father arrested in Minsk is in state custody, I heard on TV, a state-run "youth centre". Also, she is just 12 or so.This is the same case. "Authorities separated Masha from her father and placed her into a children's home, after the case began. She has not been seen in public since 1 March."

[Dargo]

And I who thought there's isn't the question on how strong the nuke is but where it is used.

If you use a 1.1 MT nuke on the battle field it's called tactical
If you use a 1.1 MT nuke on a city or other strategic targets-It's called strategic

I could be wrong thou, I'm taking it from memory(read it on a wiki page some years ago)

MarkusA tactical nuclear weapon is designed to be used on a battlefield in military situations generally smaller in explosive power, they are defined in contrast to strategic nuclear weapons, which are designed mostly to be targeted at the enemy interior far away from the war front against military bases, cities, towns, arms industries, and other hardened or larger-area targets to damage the enemy's ability to wage war

[Skybird]

The one girl - with that picture she painted - is 11 or 12 years old and still goes to school, the other is 20 and married, and protested via internet. It cannot be the same girl.

[Skybird]

Markus,
on tactical nukes and nuclear war, I had posted these:

https://www.subsim.com/radioroom/showthread.php?p=2832008&highlight=tactical+nu#post2832008

https://www.subsim.com/radioroom/showthread.php?p=2844539&highlight=tactical+nu#post2844539

https://www.subsim.com/radioroom/showpost.php?p=2831595&postcount=7164

[mapuc]

A tactical nuclear weapon is designed to be used on a battlefield in military situations generally smaller in explosive power, they are defined in contrast to strategic nuclear weapons, which are designed mostly to be targeted at the enemy interior far away from the war front against military bases, cities, towns, arms industries, and other hardened or larger-area targets to damage the enemy's ability to wage war

I was thinking-Dargo seems to know more about this than I do-So I went back to make search for these type of nuclear

You were right on spot.

Markus

[Dargo]

I was thinking-Dargo seems to know more about this than I do-So I went back to make search for these type of nuclear

You were right on spot.

MarkusNot knowledge I googled it :D

[mapuc]

Markus,
on tactical nukes and nuclear war, I had posted these:

https://www.subsim.com/radioroom/showthread.php?p=2832008&highlight=tactical+nu#post2832008

https://www.subsim.com/radioroom/showthread.php?p=2844539&highlight=tactical+nu#post2844539

https://www.subsim.com/radioroom/showpost.php?p=2831595&postcount=7164

Thank you for posting these to fresh up my mind.

Both you and Dargo is correct.

The 64.000 £ question would be-Is he going to use his tactical when he's pressed real hard up in the corner and there's no way out ?

Markus

[Dargo]

Thank you for posting these to fresh up my mind.

Both you and Dargo is correct.

The 64.000 £ question would be-Is he going to use his tactical when he's pressed real hard up in the corner and there's no way out ?

MarkusCrimea, I think, is the only real red line for Putin the risk is that he will then escalate on a grand scale. Putin does not like making decisions. He always takes them very slowly, and late when he is forced into a lightning-fast decision, he tends to panic and overreact. The possible capture of Crimea could, in my opinion, be one such moment to threaten to deploy a small tactical nuclear weapon, because he would see it as an existential moment either for himself, rather than for his country. Putin continues to use the nuclear issue primarily as a political weapon against the West. Every time he does, someone somewhere in the West writes an opinion piece that the situation is getting too dangerous, we need to put pressure on Kiev so that we make an ugly deal with Russia. That is what he is all about. He wants to spread fear and division with it. I still think the actual risk is disproportionate to the rhetoric used. Putin is cunning, but not crazy. I do not see in him a fanatic who will set the world on fire.

[Dargo]

Are the Ukrainian military personnel born for this?

Ukrainian military personnel complete Patriot training in the US
A group of 65 Ukrainian soldiers have completed their training with Patriot surface-to-air missile systems in Port Sill, Oklahoma, and are now on their way to Europe to work together with their fellow soldiers who are currently training in Europe.

Source: Patrick Ryder, spokesman for the Pentagon, during a press briefing on Thursday, 30 March, as European Pravda correspondent reports https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/03/30/7395788/

[Skybird]

On volcanoes.


https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2023/mar/30/vulkan-files-leak-reveals-putins-global-and-domestic-cyberwarfare-tactics

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/03/30/takeaways-vulkan-files-investigation/

https://www.spiegel.de/international/world/the-vulkan-files-a-look-inside-putin-s-secret-plans-for-cyber-warfare-a-4324e76f-cb20-4312-96c8-1101c5655236

[Dargo]

On volcanoes.


https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2023/mar/30/vulkan-files-leak-reveals-putins-global-and-domestic-cyberwarfare-tactics

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/03/30/takeaways-vulkan-files-investigation/

https://www.spiegel.de/international/world/the-vulkan-files-a-look-inside-putin-s-secret-plans-for-cyber-warfare-a-4324e76f-cb20-4312-96c8-1101c5655236The fall of empires always come from within :D

[Skybird]

The Sultan nodded and his minions cheered, and so the Russians now get a new NATO member right on their northern border and with a length of - give and take some - roughly 1350 kilometer. :D

[Jimbuna]

Putin has signed a decree setting out the routine spring conscription campaign, calling 147,000 citizens up for statutory military service.

[Jimbuna]

The Sultan nodded and his minions cheered, and so the Russians now get a new NATO member right on their northern border and with a length of - give and take some - roughly 1350 kilometer. :D

Hopefully Turkey and Hungary will soon drop their objections to Sweden joining.

[Jimbuna]

Russia is sending a delegation to North Korea to offer food in exchange for weapons, US national security spokesperson John Kirby has said.

Mr Kirby said any arms deal between North Korea and Russia would violate UN Security Council resolutions.

The US has previously accused North Korea of supplying arms to the Russian military in Ukraine and the Wagner group of Russia mercenaries.

Pyongyang earlier denied the claims.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65131117

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CkA-7myGPhw

[Skybird]

Who was it again saying "If you see a Russian leader destroying his country, economy and civil society - do not disturb him" ? :D

[FUBAR295]

Who was it again saying "If you see a Russian leader destroying his country, economy and civil society - do not disturb him" ? :D

Napoleon : "Never disturb a enemy while he is making a mistake."

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RhThQIKbhFE

[Jimbuna]

Russia has taken the presidency of the UN Security Council despite Ukraine urging members to block the move.

The last time Russia had the presidency, February 2022, it launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

It means the Security Council is being led by a country whose president is subject to an international arrest warrant for alleged war crimes.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba called Russia's presidency "the worst joke ever for April Fool's Day" and a "stark reminder that something is wrong with the way international security architecture is functioning".

The US has said its hands were tied as the UN charter does not allow for the removal of a permanent member.

"Unfortunately, Russia is a permanent member of the Security Council and no feasible international legal pathway exists to change that reality," White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre told a news briefing this week.

She added the US expects Moscow "to continue to use its seat on the council to spread disinformation" and justify its actions in Ukraine.

[Skybird]

https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20230331-western-arms-supplies-no-guarantee-of-a-decisive-victory-for-ukraine




It’s not all down to the military equipment. The tanks, armoured vehicles and mobile artillery [supplied by the West] will allow Kyiv to build up coherent and solid combat units, which could spearhead the offensive. But current supplies will only allow Ukrainian forces to build up at most three to four brigades, which is not enough to secure a decisive victory. Kyiv will need at least a dozen brigades for its offensive to be effective – as was the case last September. Moreover, Russian lines are now probably stronger than they were back then, which means the Ukrainians will need to double down. (...)

It is quite likely that the Ukrainian army will see some success, but not strategic victories that would enable it to reclaim all its territories. They will therefore have to multiply their attacks, bearing in mind that the Russians still have several cards up their sleeves, including the threat of a nuclear escalation. There is still a risk of nuclear blackmail – and indeed of such weapons being used, though this would come at a huge political cost for Moscow.

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xGqiKpOYBxI

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OCjiJWk8mzA

[Jimbuna]

NATO countries intend to transfer to Ukraine two battalions with German Leopard 2 tanks, as well as four battalions with Leopard 1. In total, the number of vehicles will be 160 units.

This was stated by German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius.

At the same time, he noted that it is unlikely to be possible to send more such weapons to the Ukrainians, since "the allies' resources are limited" and added that Germany "cannot give everything, because there are reserves that cannot be spent."

"I don't see a scenario in which it will be possible to send additional Leopards to Ukraine beyond what was announced," Pistorius said.

At the same time, the minister said that Poland, together with its allies, will send two Leopard 2 battalions to Ukraine with 60 tanks.

In addition, by the end of the year, 100 Leopard 1 tanks, assembled in four battalions, will be added to them. The head of the German Defence Ministry added that the USA and Britain also supply tanks.

"Unfortunately, NATO countries do not have tanks just waiting to be shipped. Despite this, I believe that in the medium term it will be possible to meet Ukraine's needs," Pistorius concluded.

[Jimbuna]

China has issued a stark World War 3 warning ahead of global nuclear catastrophe breaking out over Russian plans to deploy nuclear weapons in Belarus. The country's UN representative Geng Shuang pleaded for calm and, without naming Russia directly, asked for the "withdrawal of nuclear weapons deployed abroad".

Russian President Putin and the Chinese premier Xi Jinping have enjoyed a "no limits friendship" despite the war in Ukraine, with both leaders declaring solidarity with one another in a show of strength to the West.

But with Putin's decision to move nuclear weapons into the Kremlin-puppet country of Belarus the Russian dictator will be putting the doomsday devices ever closer to NATO member countries, like Poland.

On Friday at the Mr Shuang told the UN Security Council meeting that nuclear armaments were "the sword of Damocles hanging over our heads".
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/china-s-cryptic-world-war-3-warning-as-putin-plans-to-deploy-nukes-in-belarus/ar-AA19miyD?ocid=mailsignout&pc=U591&cvid=ae4cb2a5872143a9a2ae169b080fbf83&ei=40

[Skybird]

https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/03/20/2023-is-a-time-and-chance-for-military-change-in-ukraine-glen-grant/



In the 12 months following the 24 February invasion, the Armed Forces of Ukraine [ZSU] have produced amazing combat results. They have delivered a performance beyond anything anyone could imagine. They have surprised the Russian government and the international community. Ukraine will win this war. But so far, this has been at great cost in blood for the country. And as Chief of Defence, Valeriy Zaluzhnyi told (https://www.economist.com/zaluzhny-transcript) The Economist: the military is bleeding.
This loss should cause the government, Parliament, and military leadership to rethink hard some of the current military policies and laws. It is simply not good enough to order people to die. Ukrainians will do their best in battle because they are fighting for a free Ukraine, but employing Soviet leadership attitudes and methods are no longer appropriate.
There should be a clear government aim to reduce dramatically the number of people killed in the front line by trying to do things better. This war could easily continue for another two to four years.


It is both dangerous and wrong to continue to trade Ukrainian motivation, bravery, and blood for victory when there are things that could and need to be done differently.

[mapuc]

^ It's not only the Russians who was taken by surprise, Even NATO was it too...A country who wouldn't be any match for a well trained Russian military

You can't say that a majority of the Russian soldiers are well trained and furthermore they use an old Russian military doctrine as their guideline

Markus

[Jimbuna]

An explosion in a St Petersburg cafe has killed prominent Russian military blogger Vladlen Tatarsky, Russia's Interior Ministry has confirmed.

At least 19 people were injured in the bomb blast at Street Food Bar No 1.

Videos posted on social media show an explosion and injured people on the street. It is not clear who was responsible for the blast.

Vladlen Tatarsky (real name Maxim Fomin) was a vocal supporter of Russia's war in Ukraine.

He was a guest speaker at an event hosted by the cafe when the bomb went off.

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=riQOPfoPwDs

[Rockstar]

Igor Girkin stated that"...we’re heading for military defeat. We’ve gotten into a long protracted war, for which our economy was fully unprepared. Our army & political system were not ready for it too”

[Skybird]

An explosion in a St Petersburg cafe has killed prominent Russian military blogger Vladlen Tatarsky, Russia's Interior Ministry has confirmed.

At least 19 people were injured in the bomb blast at Street Food Bar No 1.

Videos posted on social media show an explosion and injured people on the street. It is not clear who was responsible for the blast.

Vladlen Tatarsky (real name Maxim Fomin) was a vocal supporter of Russia's war in Ukraine.

He was a guest speaker at an event hosted by the cafe when the bomb went off.
Retaliation by Ukraine or false flag ops by FSB, thats the question. Or Russian armed opposition?

[Jimbuna]

Retaliation by Ukraine or false flag ops by FSB, thats the question. Or Russian armed opposition?

I'd be happy enough with either first or third.

[Jimbuna]

Russian investigators have detained a woman in the hunt for the killers of pro-war blogger Vladlen Tatarsky in a blast at a St Petersburg cafe.

In video released by authorities - most likely recorded under duress - Darya Trepova is heard admitting she handed over a statuette that later blew up.

But in the footage released, she does not say she knew there would be an explosion, nor admit any further role.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xQEjybtXYP4

[Skybird]

FSB trying to blame not Ukraine but Russian opposition - just my guess.

[Skybird]

Rheinmetall is setting up a maintenance center for German and British heavy weapons and vehicles in Satu Mare, about 15km from the westernmost end of the Romanian border with Ukraine, which runs roughly west-east. Not only German Howitzers, Marder and Leopards are to be maintained there, but also British Challengers. Further away from the Russians they could not move it without increasing the distance to Ukrainian territory again.

[Jimbuna]

The United States is preparing to announce a new aid package to Ukraine this week, which will be consistent with the previous efforts of the American side to support the Armed Forces.

[mapuc]

The United States is preparing to announce a new aid package to Ukraine this week, which will be consistent with the previous efforts of the American side to support the Armed Forces.

"We are with you all the way" Said Biden some month ago. Having this analyzing stuff, Skybird posted some weeks ago, about Putin's plan on prolonging the war, in my memory. I wonder how far this - All the way - goes?

Markus

[August]

"We are with you all the way" Said Biden some month ago. Having this analyzing stuff, Skybird posted some weeks ago, about Putin's plan on prolonging the war, in my memory. I wonder how far this - All the way - goes?

Markus




It goes at least into next week Markus! :03:

[August]

The commander of the Danish Air Force is named JDAM! :)

The air forces of four Nordic countries agreed to operate their fleets of around 250 fighter jets as a combined force, hoping to deter Russia by working together.
Air force commanders of Sweden, Norway, Finland and Denmark said Friday that they have signed a letter of intent to establish a unified Nordic air defense, Reuters (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/nordic-countries-plan-joint-air-defence-counter-russian-threat-2023-03-24/?utm_source=reddit.com) reported.
"The ultimate goal is to be able to operate seamlessly together as one force by developing a Nordic concept for joint air operations based on already known NATO methodology," Denmark's air force said in a statement, per Bloomberg (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-24/nordic-nations-agree-to-jointly-operate-fighter-jet-fleet-of-250).
"Our combined fleet can be compared to a large European country," commander of the Danish air force, Major General Jan Dam, told Reutershttps://www.businessinsider.com/norway-sweden-finland-denmark-fighter-jets-one-fleet-2023-3

[mapuc]

From tomorrow April 4th Finland will officially become the 31st NATO member. I can't say when or if Sweden will join later.

It's up to Erdogan(Turkey) and Orbán(Hungary).

Erdogan and Orbán have both their reason to why they postpone the Swedish accept to become the 32th NATO member.

Markus

[Skybird]

Cooperation with Sweden already is so close and manouvers are run to meet NATO standards and doctrine that formal memberhsip of Sweden is indeed more a formality only. The Turks are the only ones wanting to let it appear differently - all others know it better I think.



Even during the cold war many observers assumed that in case of war NATO would assist Sweden and vice versa. Since then cooperation and excercises have deepened between both sides.

[mapuc]

Well said.

A Danish correspondent said following:


Finnish NATO membership is "a stunning defeat" for Russia

Russia invaded Ukraine in part to keep NATO away from its borders. As a result, the country will more than double its border with NATO countries when Finland joins the alliance today.

- "It's a fantastic defeat," says TV 2's long-time Russia correspondent Uffe Dreesen.

He expects that Russia will respond with more nuclear sabre-rattling, but that the threats will stop there.

- The Russians have enough on their plate with the war in Ukraine, and they are already struggling to find enough soldiers to fill the ranks after the many casualties. So they won't pose much of a threat along the border with Finland. They already have enough to do at the moment, and as I said,
it's just the result of their own security policy failure," he says.

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)

Markus

[Jimbuna]

Belarus has received the ability to strike its enemies with nuclear weapons, Russia has announced. Speaking to his team in a conference call, Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu said: "Some of the Belarusian ground attack aircraft have gained the ability to strike at enemy targets with nuclear-armed weapons."

The warning comes after Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said that Russian strategic nuclear weapons might be deployed in his country, along with part of Moscow's tactical nuclear arsenal.

Putin had said he planned to place tactical nuclear weapons in neighbouring Belarus.

Those weapons are comparatively short-range and low-yield.

Strategic nuclear weapons, such as missile-borne warheads, would be a greater threat.

Lukashenko, while talking up the possibility of nuclear weapons, has also called for a cease-fire in Ukraine.

He said a truce must have no preconditions and all movement of troops and weapons must be halted.

Russia, however, has rejected a cease in fighting, claiming that Ukraine has refused to enter talks under pressure from its Western allies.

The two neighbours have an agreement envisioning close economic, political and military ties. Russia used Belarusian territory as a staging ground for invading Ukraine and has maintained a contingent of troops and weapons there.

Belarus shares a 1,250-kilometre (778-mile) border with NATO members Latvia, Lithuania and Poland.

The deployment of Russian tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus would put them closer to potential targets in Ukraine and NATO members in Eastern and Central Europe.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/russia-says-belarus-now-armed-with-nuclear-armed-aircraft-in-terrifying-warning/ar-AA19s8zc?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=ba5d309139ac483aac8ddd653c9d641e&ei=58

People must surely be getting sick of hearing the same old rhetoric https://i.postimg.cc/3R0P6pMV/yawnbigji2.gif (https://postimages.org/)

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QDa-tavjFlA

[August]

https://i.imgur.com/vAc7rz7.png

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_UVYu0ubJlU

[Catfish]

"China does not recognize Crimea as Russian, like other territories of Ukraine "included" in the Russian Federation" - Chinese Ambassador to the EU

He also added that the statement about "boundless friendship" between Moscow and Beijing is nothing more than a rhetorical device
11:46 AM · Apr 5, 2023

Twitter link (https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1643550586283991040?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5 Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1643550586283991040%7Ctwgr% 5E0db72d93f38ad6489f978d119d480f2c22ac660e%7Ctwcon %5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fs9e.github.io%2Fiframe%2Ftwi tter.min.html1643550586283991040)

[Jimbuna]

"China does not recognize Crimea as Russian, like other territories of Ukraine "included" in the Russian Federation" - Chinese Ambassador to the EU

He also added that the statement about "boundless friendship" between Moscow and Beijing is nothing more than a rhetorical device
11:46 AM · Apr 5, 2023

Twitter link (https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1643550586283991040?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5 Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1643550586283991040%7Ctwgr% 5E0db72d93f38ad6489f978d119d480f2c22ac660e%7Ctwcon %5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fs9e.github.io%2Fiframe%2Ftwi tter.min.html1643550586283991040)

I thought I'd alresdy posted that but when I checked and confirmed that I had I noticed I had put it in the China thread :o

https://subsim.com/radioroom/showthread.php?p=2861646#post2861646

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y5eRGQzLkOw

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eDzjhCsy150

[Skybird]

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/06/us/politics/ukraine-war-plan-russia.html


If it was a traitor, i hope he will get quartered.

[Skybird]

https://www-spiegel-de.translate.goog/ausland/russland-ueberlaeufer-der-kreml-praesidentengarde-spricht-ueber-wladimir-putins-aengste-a-6b17eccd-066a-482d-9e4c-9071fe713824?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp


Defector from the Kremlin Presidential Guard speaks out on Putin's fears. In an interview, a fled officer of the Kremlin Presidential Guard reports on the life and tricks of his ex-boss. Putin is healthier than many other people of his age.

[Jimbuna]

Russia does not refuse negotiations with Ukraine, but wants "to take into account its interests", - Lavrov

The Russian Federation does not refuse negotiations with Ukraine, but wants "to take into account Russian interests."

"We have repeatedly said that we are not giving up on negotiations. But these negotiations can only take place on the basis of taking into account Russian legitimate interests, Russian legitimate concerns, which we have for many years outlined and indicated in the dialogue with our Western colleagues and which - our concerns - have been excessively and negligently ignored," said the minister of the occupying country.

By the above I presume he means that Russia keep the territory they have occupied.

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hlGT9lN8WkE

[Rockstar]

https://youtu.be/8CzM7txxZ5Q

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ce8EV6nsH6k

[Skybird]

The timing of the document leak makes it look suspicious. It could be an Ukrainian trick to put the Russians on the wrong foot.

[mapuc]

The timing of the document leak makes it look suspicious. It could be an Ukrainian trick to put the Russians on the wrong foot.

You are not the only one. It made me think of this special operation "Operation Mincemeat" which toke place in WWII.

Markus

[Dargo]

The timing of the document leak makes it look suspicious. It could be an Ukrainian trick to put the Russians on the wrong foot.If the Russians are only now discovering that the Americans and Europeans are busy training nine to 15 brigades, something is wrong. That information is known. Also, the Russians should actually know better than anyone how many HIMARS missiles they are in Ukraine. In previous wars, there was a whole accounting system around these soldiers had to count how much they were being shot at. It gave an indication whether the enemy was up to something or not.

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8zoj4nm1UZA

[Skybird]

^ Disagree with. If they have nothing better to do than to risk Western tanks for operations like this, then we should stop providing them. Its easier to throw our money out of the window ourselves.

[Dargo]

^ Disagree with. If they have nothing better to do than to risk Western tanks for operations like this, then we should stop providing them. Its easier to throw our money out of the window ourselves.The Western tanks will not be used till at least after May, and certainly not to counter Russia around Bakhmut.

[mapuc]

The Western tanks will not be used till at least after May, and certainly not to counter Russia around Bakhmut.

I think the tanks they receive from the west will be used in their upcoming offensive which will take place in 3-4 weeks from now.

Markus

[Skybird]

Another batch of files leaked - or whatever.


https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/07/us/politics/classified-documents-leak.html

[Skybird]

An amphibious landing by Ukrainian special comamndos to retake the nuclear reactor at saporishja has failed. 600 elite soldiers tried to land with over 30 fast attack boats, "hoping" the Russians would not dare to fire with heavy artillery in the vicinity of the reactors, German media report. But they did, plus fire form tanks, and heavy fortofcation, also the ground is heavily mined. The Ukrainian commander decided after some hours to poull his forces back instead of wasting them uselessly.

This might only be an outlook of what an Ukrainian offensive hase to overcome. Heavily fortified defence lines, dense mine fields, entrenched tanks and artillery. The Russian defences are much otugher this time than they were at Cherson or Charkiv. It it looks like this all across Crimea and in many parts of the frontline in Luhansk and Donbass. Well, the Ukrainian offensive will not be self-perpetuating. And I dont take a success as granted. If it succeeds, the Ukrainians nevertheless will pay a high blood toll.

It also gets reported that several missiles were shot down over Crimea and several others impacted and caused detonations. Some say that this might be preparatory fire to suppress air defences and artillery, and that it indicates the beginning of the Ukrainian offensive. Maybe it is, maybe not. I dont know.

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K2mVeGHPGs8

[mapuc]

The article could also be posted in our Wuhan-Thread.
They are right.

Some of my friends was sceptic to the vaccine and now they are against our help to Ukraine.


For over two years, a small group of Danes had been working intensively against the government's handling of the coronavirus crisis. A few people with loud voices and a large reach.

On 24 February 2022, Vladimir Putin's Russia invaded neighbouring Ukraine. And then, in one fell swoop, there was a remarkable turnaround among some of the most hardcore coronavirus sceptics. The developments are being followed closely and with great concern.

"It was so striking. On 24 February, it turned out that those who had had very strong views on the coronavirus vaccine were suddenly very much against Zelenskyj."

These words come from military analyst Jeanette Serritzlev from the Danish Defence Academy. She works on information warfare on a daily basis.

And here we are getting closer.

"Many of those who were prominent anti-vaxxers were suddenly pro-Russian," she explains.

This development is one that is being followed with equal parts fear and interest by, for example, the Danish Defence Academy.

But also among Danish intelligence services. This is according to a Danish expert in the field:

"There is an increased concern among intelligence services about dissident groups. So this shows that it requires a certain amount of attention," says Michael Bang Petersen, Professor of Political Science at Aarhus University. Throughout the coronavirus pandemic, he has closely monitored the behaviour of Danes.

Although he has not conducted a detailed study of this, he has also noticed that several people who expressed scepticism about the handling of the corona pandemic very quickly switched to theories about Ukraine after Russia's invasion.

"This is not surprising, because the biggest factor that makes a person start believing in a conspiracy theory is that they already believe in another conspiracy theory," says Michael Bang Petersen.

One of the key concerns about the sudden shift is the influence of Russia.

For many of the views expressed by the anti-vaxxers on Ukraine were similar to those spread by media and profiles in Russia with Putin's best interests in mind.

For Jeanette Serritzlev, this did not look like a coincidence.

"Many of the attitudes that were expressed were one-to-one the same attitudes that you would see on a media outlet like Russia Today (RT)," she says.

She does not want to name specific profiles. But what Jeanette Serritzlev and her colleagues noticed was a storm.

Both by fake profiles on social media, but also by well-known Danish and foreign celebrities. Real people.

The Danish Defence Academy is paying extra attention to this development. This is due to something that was already seen during the coronavirus pandemic.

"During the corona pandemic, it was clear that Russia was quietly helping the anti-vaxxer communities in the West. Nothing big, but they supported them," says Jeanette Serritzlev.

"The same anti-vaxxer communities can now be used by Russia to spread anti-Ukraine stories now," she elaborates.

What unites those who oppose the vaccine and now support Ukraine and President Volodymyr Zelenskyj is a general scepticism towards authorities and authorities.

Some parts of that environment may also have a tendency towards conspiracy theories.

"Corona helped to strengthen these networks of anti-authoritarian figures. They were united during the pandemic. And now Russia has managed to use them to get its propaganda out," explains Jeanette Serritzlev.

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)


It would not surprise surprise if the Danish PET or FET(Similar to FBI or CIA) is monitoring the development here in our country.

Markus

[Skybird]

One possible psychological explanation is that people who have felt cheated once too often by "their" state no longer trust this state of theirs in the future - and invest their trust instead in another state, which is not their state, and which has the appearance or the actual intention of standing up to their state, which has truly or even only supposedly cheated them - which they interpret as a righteous fight against the evil of their cheating state, without questioning this hypothesis any further. The stronger the feeling of having been deceived, or the more often or the longer this impression occurs, the greater the likelihood of turning against one's own state: not necessarily by beginning to actively resist, but by applauding those who do so on one's behalf, or by joining any anonymous demonstrators.


Moreover, the Corona protests are also partly sponsored and supported by Russia. Russia serves everything that undermines stability in the Western states. It has been doing that for a very long time, and it has gotten damn good at it.

[mapuc]

^ Interesting indeed, Yes they are very critical towards the State and authorities.

One thing I will give them-Being critical about the help we send and critical against Zelenskyy isn't the same as they support Putin.

It happens every time one of my Danish or Swedish friends write a critical issue about Ukraine and/or Zelenskyy there's always someone writing.
"Putin lover" on this friends wall.

Markus

[Dargo]

One possible psychological explanation is that people who have felt cheated once too often by "their" state no longer trust this state of theirs in the future - and invest their trust instead in another state, which is not their state, and which has the appearance or the actual intention of standing up to their state, which has truly or even only supposedly cheated them - which they interpret as a righteous fight against the evil of their cheating state, without questioning this hypothesis any further. The stronger the feeling of having been deceived, or the more often or the longer this impression occurs, the greater the likelihood of turning against one's own state: not necessarily by beginning to actively resist, but by applauding those who do so on one's behalf, or by joining any anonymous demonstrators.


Moreover, the Corona protests are also partly sponsored and supported by Russia. Russia serves everything that undermines stability in the Western states. It has been doing that for a very long time, and it has gotten damn good at it.If you only can vote between Tweedledum and Tweedledee both backed by the ones that ensure you have to labor your whole life to pay back your debt to them, it is no surprise you get confused whois who and who has your back.

[Dargo]

An amphibious landing by Ukrainian special comamndos to retake the nuclear reactor at saporishja has failed. 600 elite soldiers tried to land with over 30 fast attack boats, "hoping" the Russians would not dare to fire with heavy artillery in the vicinity of the reactors, German media report. But they did, plus fire form tanks, and heavy fortofcation, also the ground is heavily mined. The Ukrainian commander decided after some hours to poull his forces back instead of wasting them uselessly.

This might only be an outlook of what an Ukrainian offensive hase to overcome. Heavily fortified defence lines, dense mine fields, entrenched tanks and artillery. The Russian defences are much otugher this time than they were at Cherson or Charkiv. It it looks like this all across Crimea and in many parts of the frontline in Luhansk and Donbass. Well, the Ukrainian offensive will not be self-perpetuating. And I dont take a success as granted. If it succeeds, the Ukrainians nevertheless will pay a high blood toll.

It also gets reported that several missiles were shot down over Crimea and several others impacted and caused detonations. Some say that this might be preparatory fire to suppress air defences and artillery, and that it indicates the beginning of the Ukrainian offensive. Maybe it is, maybe not. I dont know.In the dead of night last October 19, 2022, a Ukrainian special forces team boarded a 40ft armored patrol boat, taking up positions at its three heavy machine guns and Mk19 automatic grenade launcher. They were among nearly 600 elite troops scattered along the north bank of the Dnipro River, which carves through Zaporizhzhia region. The teams boarded more than 30 vessels bristling with weapons, formidable gifts from friends in the West. Their orders: to launch an assault to recapture the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant from the Russians on the opposite bank. Kyiv has never acknowledged attacking Europe’s largest nuclear power station, but Ukrainian special forces, military intelligence and navy personnel involved have revealed to The Times details of the highly dangerous operation to recover the site. https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ukrainian-zaporizhzhia-nuclear-power-plant-russia-putin-war-2023-fx82xz3xz

https://i.postimg.cc/J7f8TvM4/Zaporizhzhia.jpghttps://i.postimg.cc/65CXFcpV/Zaporizhzhia2.jpg
https://i.postimg.cc/tg4GZHtD/Zaporizhzhia3.png

[Skybird]

Quality journalism is when an author does not do enough research to realise that he reports an event from already half a year ago.

Explains why I mostly prefer Swiss Neue Zürcher Zeitung to all German newspapers.

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yNpcb5DDn7U

[mapuc]

^ I say he's right-They should have withdraw from Bakhmut month ago-
They have lost so many in the effort to protect the town and the area around Bakhmut.
Even the logistic is under heavy shelling from the Russian.

As he also said-The generals knows better, than I do
"Maybe they have decided to let Russia pay a high price to take the town"("") is my own words

His speech about the upcoming offensive, made me remember the stories about these leaked documents...is it their version of operation mincemeat

Meaning the offensive would come where Russia or we didn't expect it

Markus

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_woUtKt6KEs

[Skybird]

How can one be so stupid...??? Media reprt that Slovakia alowe drussian technicians until end of 2022 to access militarey vases and maitnain Sowvjet-build Mig-29s in their arsenal. Its now being reported that those Migs they recently delivered to Ukraine all have bee sabotaged by the Russians, Ukraine says they can fly, but not fight.

Responsible decision makers deserve getting spanked on the bare botton live on TV for everybody to watch. The idea of letting Russians access military bases of a NATO member for maintaing military equipment is silly enough, but to even still allow this after already 10 months of war is sign of a total neural core meltdown.

Turkey bought modern Russian air defences. Well...

[Reece]

Good grief!! :k_confused:

[Jimbuna]

The boss of the UK's largest insurance broker has warned the industry will go bust if it is forced to cover the cost of claims arising from Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

David Howden, the boss of Howden Group, said the sector was 'not designed' to be a 'backstop' for the costs of war and if insurers paid out claims 'we'd all go bankrupt.'

The comments came as the owners of around 500 commercial aircraft that were seized by Russia shortly after the outbreak of war prepared to sue several Lloyd's of London insurers after they refused to pay out around £8billion in claims.

Howden said their decision not to pay up was legitimate.

'Ultimately, war has never been something that insurance has been there to cover,' he told The Sunday Telegraph.

He added that there was 'not enough capital in the insurance market' to cover the impact of the conflict and if policies were expanded the Government would need to bail out bankrupt insurers.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/ukraine-claims-would-bankrupt-us-says-howden-group-boss/ar-AA19ELjV?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=9ecfc6175da841b0aeaa7d92f2325fb0&ei=10

One of the fundamental realities of war.

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=udEmHWI3EjI

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eJOYUnCevh8

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OEiNJNkSRoU

[Skybird]

Nothing is known for sure, but I would not rule out a scenario where somebody just leaked this becasue this was what he had access to and could use, by leaking it, to damage the Biden administration just at any cost. I think this is a possibility, a scenario because of the wide range of info leaked, not just focussed on Ukraine, or glossing over Russia, but also on general intel efforts beyond these, and overhearing communications of allies. Maybe it was somebody not liking Biden, or somebody who does not agree with US support to Ukraine, and Korea, and then possibly also Europe, or a Trump supporter causing havoc just for the cause of causing chaos.



Nothing is known, all is speculation at this point. However, i rate the scenario where the source is not even foreign intel effort, but homegrown in US, the highest probability of all possibilities. Just a feeling. I could be wrong.



I also do not rule out that it all is a clever misinformation campaign in preparation of the upcoming offensive by Ukraine, to put Russia, as I earlier put it, on the wrong foot.

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IHTAkwVArqE

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c40y97if3CM

[Jimbuna]

Total combat losses of Russian Federation since beginning of war - about 179,320 people (+500 per day), 293 helicopters, 3,644 tanks, 2,765 artillery systems, 7,038 armored vehicles. INFOGRAPHICS

As of the morning of April 11, 2023, the losses of the Russian occupiers are approximately 179,320 people.

As noted, the total combat losses of the enemy from 24/02/22 to 11/04/23 are approximately:

personnel - about 179,320 (+500) people were liquidated,
tanks - 3644 (+7) units,
armored combat vehicles - 7038 (+10) units,
artillery systems - 2765 (+15) units,
MLRS- 535 (+1) units,
air defense equipment - 282 (+0) units,
aircraft - 307 (+0) units,
helicopters - 293 (+1) units,
UAVs of operational-tactical level - 2332 (+9),
cruise missiles - 911 (+0),
warships/boats - 18 (+0) units,
automotive equipment and tank trucks - 5620 (+13) units,
special equipment - 316 (+5). Source: https://censor.net/en/n3411339

[mapuc]

It would not come as a surprise if it happens.
What he talks about, is a coup in Russia.


- I am not afraid to say that we are heading for a military defeat, says the hawk Igor Girkin in a manifesto published on YouTube. Girkin, has long been critical of Vladimir Putin and his military - or lack thereof - progress in Ukraine.

Now he takes the paper out of his mouth once again and criticizes Mother Russia in strong terms.

- The media cover the situation at the front. It has a huge impact on the situation throughout the country.

- We entered a protracted war for which our economy was completely unprepared. The army and our political system were not ready either, he says in the clip

Markus

[Jimbuna]

It is being reported that Canada are about to send thousands of firearms and one million pieces of ammunition. As much as I am sure this will be very much appreciated, I think heavy weapons would be more useful.

[mapuc]

Heard in the news at 7.

Ukraine isn't not only asking for F15 and/or F-16, but also volunteers who can fly them.

Markus

[August]

Heard in the news at 7.

Ukraine isn't not only asking for F15 and/or F-16, but also volunteers who can fly them.

Markus


It certainly would be helpful to have some experienced pilots to share their knowledge with the Ukrainian flyers.

[mapuc]

It certainly would be helpful to have some experienced pilots to share their knowledge with the Ukrainian flyers.

It also made me recall some of the documentary I've seen about the war in Korea and Vietnam-In both wars it was mostly Russian who flew their own MIG15/21

Which mean Russia can't complain.

Markus

[Dargo]

Nothing is known for sure, but I would not rule out a scenario where somebody just leaked this becasue this was what he had access to and could use, by leaking it, to damage the Biden administration just at any cost. I think this is a possibility, a scenario because of the wide range of info leaked, not just focussed on Ukraine, or glossing over Russia, but also on general intel efforts beyond these, and overhearing communications of allies. Maybe it was somebody not liking Biden, or somebody who does not agree with US support to Ukraine, and Korea, and then possibly also Europe, or a Trump supporter causing havoc just for the cause of causing chaos.



Nothing is known, all is speculation at this point. However, i rate the scenario where the source is not even foreign intel effort, but homegrown in US, the highest probability of all possibilities. Just a feeling. I could be wrong.



I also do not rule out that it all is a clever misinformation campaign in preparation of the upcoming offensive by Ukraine, to put Russia, as I earlier put it, on the wrong foot.It is always possible that (redacted) intelligence was deliberately leaked, for instance to mislead an opponent. Suppose I myself had something false leaked, or that it was partly true, I would also say outwardly that it was real and that there would be an investigation. Furthermore, I am surprised that the documents cover so many different files, because intelligence agencies work in a segmented way. For security reasons, Person A only has access to the Ukraine file and not to intelligence operations in South Korea. But now documents on both and many more subjects have been leaked simultaneously.

[Skybird]

It also made me recall some of the documentary I've seen about the war in Korea and Vietnam-In both wars it was mostly Russian who flew their own MIG15/21

Which mean Russia can't complain.

Markus
What I have big issues with is that some weeks ago it was reported that Britain still allows retired British fighter pilots to get hired by China. In all innocence, of course. I must admit I am tempted to recommend very ultimate measures on this.

[Rockstar]

It is always possible that (redacted) intelligence was deliberately leaked, for instance to mislead an opponent. Suppose I myself had something false leaked, or that it was partly true, I would also say outwardly that it was real and that there would be an investigation. Furthermore, I am surprised that the documents cover so many different files, because intelligence agencies work in a segmented way. For security reasons, Person A only has access to the Ukraine file and not to intelligence operations in South Korea. But now documents on both and many more subjects have been leaked simultaneously.

A deliberate leak is very possible. Since we monitor their every move, how they respond to the intel may tell us a lot about how efficient their current command control and communications structure is and reveal locations to hit them. How well they can move troops and logistics to what they may now believe is a new front which stretch out their defensive lines even more. It will certainly mess with their minds too, keeping them on high alert long enough will help wear them down.

[August]

It also made me recall some of the documentary I've seen about the war in Korea and Vietnam-In both wars it was mostly Russian who flew their own MIG15/21

Which mean Russia can't complain.

Markus

Nor could they complain if we asked the Ukes to hand over a few of their captured Russian POW's for special interrogation since they did that to our people in Korea and Vietnam too.

But of course they would. :03:

[Jimbuna]

The UK is among a number of countries with military special forces operating inside Ukraine, according to one of dozens of documents leaked online.

It confirms what has been the subject of quiet speculation for over a year.

The leaked files, some marked "top secret", paint a detailed picture of the war in Ukraine, including sensitive details of Ukraine's preparations for a spring counter-offensive.

The US government says it is investigating the source of the leak.

According to the document, dated 23 March, the UK has the largest contingent of special forces in Ukraine (50), followed by fellow Nato states Latvia (17), France (15), the US (14) and the Netherlands (1).

The document does not say where the forces are located or what they are doing.

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3_UAYWYvDc0

[mapuc]

According to the document, dated 23 March, the UK has the largest contingent of special forces in Ukraine (50), followed by fellow Nato states Latvia (17), France (15), the US (14) and the Netherlands (1).

The document does not say where the forces are located or what they are doing.

Maybe there's 1 or more Danish volunteers from the Danish Special forces.

In the beginning of the war I had a chat with a friend I use to have cup of coffee with. I know he is trained by the (Jægerkorpset)=(SAS/Green Baret)

He mentioned taking a trip to Ukraine and join their special forces.

I haven't seen him since then-Can't say if has taken the trip or not.

Markus

[Jimbuna]

Volunteers?....possibly.

[mapuc]

^ At the start of the war, the Danish Prime Minister said on National TV.

It's up to each and one grown-up to decide if they want to join the Ukrainian in the battle for at free Ukraine. Then a journalist asked if it was ok if these volunteers toke their uniform with them.
Here she said-As long they remove the flag emblem on the left side of the shoulder.

A couple of month later I could read that around 1000 Danish volunteers had join the Ukrainian.

I also wonder how many Danish fighter pilot will hear the call.

Markus

[mapuc]

Fear it's the truth what is being spread on twitter.

https://twitter.com/apmassaro3/status/1645903680967700485

Markus

[Jimbuna]

^ At the start of the war, the Danish Prime Minister said on National TV.

It's up to each and one grown-up to decide if they want to join the Ukrainian in the battle for at free Ukraine. Then a journalist asked if it was ok if these volunteers toke their uniform with them.
Here she said-As long they remove the flag emblem on the left side of the shoulder.

A couple of month later I could read that around 1000 Danish volunteers had join the Ukrainian.

I also wonder how many Danish fighter pilot will hear the call.

Markus

Well if your numbers are anywhere near accurate, which I doubt, I hope they last longer than the six or so hours your lot lasted against Germany :03:

:O:

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N267PUnysP4

[mapuc]

Well if your numbers are anywhere near accurate, which I doubt, I hope they last longer than the six or so hours your lot lasted against Germany :03:

:O:

To understand why the Danish forces gave up after 6 hours you have to look at what happened days before during and after in the Danish Parliament.

The Danish soldiers did not lack fighting spirits-It was the government who was acting cowardly and surrende within the first hour of the invasion.

Some of the battalion did not get the message that Denmark had surrende that's why they kept on fighting for 6 hours.

Secondly I feel more like an German and a Swede than I feel like a Dane-Despite my mom came from Denmark and I was born in Denmark.

Back to discuss the war in Ukraine.

[Skybird]

I read that the loss numbers from the second leak that paint a much darker picture from the Russian perspective, caused a furor in a Russian live debate on TV when one of the minions there mentioned these grim numbers. Pro-regime agitators immediately exploded and tried to cut the speaker off.

I wonder if this maybe might be the motive of these "leaks" in case they are in fact a Western psych-op: to bring these numbers to awareness in Russian media and society, packed in a believable package of "compromising" information that "hurt" Wetsern and Ukrainian interest and by that "prove" that the package and so the KIA numbers as well are true...!? Because if you tell the ordinary Russian on the street about these numbers, most will simply not believe them. You must give him a plausible argument why they are true.

If it is so - and I am far from certain - then it might be an effort to destabilise the mood in Russian society, and turn it from now massively pro-war to "against Putin".

[Jimbuna]

The US believes the UN Secretary General is too willing to accommodate Russian interests, according to fresh revelations in classified documents leaked online.

[Skybird]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/04/12/discord-leaked-documents/

It seems to me they are close to identify and arrest the source of these leaks? Apparently an attention seeking, bored, racist, and devout gun nut.

Hang, draw and quarter him! Its no whistleblower warning the public of a threat from or a crime committed by its own government, but its simple treason.

[Skybird]

Poland has officially requested an export license from Germany for Mig-29 fighters from GDR stocks.


Na jetzt bin ich gespannt.

[Jimbuna]

Poland has officially requested an export license from Germany for Mig-29 fighters from GDR stocks.


Na jetzt bin ich gespannt.

A decision is expected today apparently.

[Skybird]

Permission granted. Anything else would have been insane.

[Jimbuna]

I doubt they had much choice really but well done to them anyway.

[mapuc]

Does anyone know how many MIG's there is in this GDR stocks ?

Someone once said that these MIG29 was no match for SU-xx

Markus

[Jimbuna]

In 2002, Germany sold 23 MiG-29 fighters to Poland.

So 23 max.

[Skybird]

DW said so far 5 ex-German Migs are to be delivered. Whether later it could become more, they did not say.



Say what you want, but at least by the looks the Fulcrum is one of the absolutely sexiest fighters ever made. I am still melting away when seeing them.

[mapuc]

Thank you for your answer..it triggered another question, which I search to find the answer

Ukraine has lost roughly 60 aircraft so far since Russia’s renewed invasion of the country in February 2022, while the Russians have lost more than 70, according to the top U.S. Air Force commander for Europe. After Russia’s larger air force failed to establish air superiority in the early days of the war, the air picture has turned into a mutually denied environment, Gen. James B. Hecker said March 6 at the AFA Warfare Symposium

https://www.airandspaceforces.com/ukraine-has-lost-60-aircraft-taken-down-70-in-russian-invasion-hecker-says/

Markus

[Jimbuna]

The suspect in the leaking of highly sensitive US defence and intelligence documents is named as Jack Teixeira, US officials tell CBS News.

The New York Times earlier reported that the leader of an online gaming chat group where the files leaked in recent months had the same name.

The paper said he is a 21-year-old member of the intelligence wing of the Massachusetts Air National Guard.

Its report did not identify Mr Teixeira as the alleged leaker.

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1RD4wgNXJ1c

[Dargo]

The suspect in the leaking of highly sensitive US defence and intelligence documents is named as Jack Teixeira, US officials tell CBS News.

The New York Times earlier reported that the leader of an online gaming chat group where the files leaked in recent months had the same name.

The paper said he is a 21-year-old member of the intelligence wing of the Massachusetts Air National Guard.

Its report did not identify Mr Teixeira as the alleged leaker.A 21-year-old US Air Force National Guard employee has been arrested over the leak of highly sensitive US defence and intelligence documents. Jack Teixeira is reported to be the leader of an online gaming chat group in Discord (a social media platform popular with gamers) where the files leaked in recent months.

[Skybird]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/04/12/discord-leaked-documents/

It seems to me they are close to identify and arrest the source of these leaks? Apparently an attention seeking, bored, racist, and devout gun nut.

Hang, draw and quarter him! Its no whistleblower warning the public of a threat from or a crime committed by its own government, but its simple treason.
So they got him.

Embarrassing, embarrassing for the institutions involved. First that the leak even happened and under these circumstances, and then that a newspaper got closer and earlier to the suspect than the investigating authorities.

He will probably get sued under the Espionage Act. If I understood correctly what I red about that two days ago, then the penalties per leaked document could mount up quickly and give him a state-sponsored holiday in a nice room without a view for the rest of this life and after his reincarnation for the following three or four lives as well.

I am almost sad for him a bit, he was no hostile spy, just a messed up teenager who got put into a uniform way too early in his life and did not had his life under control, it seems. Well. When I was 14 or 15, I almost fell for a couple who in fact were Moon sect recruiters. We do not get born ripe, mature, reasonable, responsible, but we hopefull become that with growing age. Maybe we should look closer who it is that we put into a uniform, and at what age - and let play with weapons.

[Skybird]

The leaked documents showed, according to the NYT, that last autu mn a Russian interceptor almost shot down a British RC-135 over the Black Sea. German media quote the Times with that the Russian pilot misunderstood orders he got via radio and indeed pressed the button, but that the missile did not launch due to technical malfunction.

One can only speculate how the story would have unfolded in the event of the Rivet Joint with a crew of over 30 being shot down and all lives lost. This is the one scenario that everybody, probably also the Russians, fear: war between Russia and NATO by accident or mishap or misunderstanding.

In my opinion such an act could not have gone by without very serious military reaction. After all Russia has no right to be where it now is in the Ukriane, and to wage this war of attack. If they open fire on NATO units, intentionally or accidentally, then so be it and so let things go the way they must. If the Russians do not want that ascenairo, then they should stop what they do and piss off and out of this war they have initiated.

------

Washington has put Hungary on a sanction list due to its Russia-supportive political course. Orban recently signed new deals with Russia over gas and/or oil and voiced his intention to increase his trading with Russia.

-------

Rasputitia, rain and mud season, has started unusually early this year, and has delayed the plans for an Ukrainian offensive. By past patterns of how Rasputitia fades out and the country gets dry again, it is likely that this means the soil on the grounds Ukraine must attack first in an advance dries earlier than the regions where the Russians have much, most of thier heavy armour. So this delay has a chance to actually work for the advantage of the Ukraine once their offensive starts. However, it gives Russia more time to prepare, of course. Things could be delayed further until late May.

No matter what, a Ukrainian success from this offensive is anything but certain, I fear. Possible a success is - but not to be taken for granted, its not even the most likely outcome, imo. It could give them some regional gains here and there, nevertheless ending in a stalemate again.

-----------

Ukraine fears to lose its camera drone advantage, since the Russians use Chinese camera drones as well now, like the Ukrainians. It could be that the Russians chose to use electronic warfare to deny the use of such drones in general - for themselves and for the ukrainians. That loss may affect both sides, but for the Ukrainians it is far more decisive a loss.

If the war drags on in trench and artillery warfare like now, its good for Russia and bad for Ukraine. If the war can be turned into a highly mobile manouver war again, then the Ukrainians can win the upper hand over the Russians.

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e9WBpFFj9oY

[Jimbuna]

So they got him.

Embarrassing, embarrassing for the institutions involved. First that the leak even happened and under these circumstances, and then that a newspaper got closer and earlier to the suspect than the investigating authorities.

He will probably get sued under the Espionage Act. If I understood correctly what I red about that two days ago, then the penalties per leaked document could mount up quickly and give him a state-sponsored holiday in a nice room without a view for the rest of this life and after his reincarnation for the following three or four lives as well.

I am almost sad for him a bit, he was no hostile spy, just a messed up teenager who got put into a uniform way too early in his life and did not had his life under control, it seems. Well. When I was 14 or 15, I almost fell for a couple who in fact were Moon sect recruiters. We do not get born ripe, mature, reasonable, responsible, but we hopefull become that with growing age. Maybe we should look closer who it is that we put into a uniform, and at what age - and let play with weapons.

There's a picture of him and a video of his arrest here:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-65271302

[Dargo]

The leaked documents showed, according to the NYT, that last autu mn a Russian interceptor almost shot down a British RC-135 over the Black Sea. German media quote the Times with that the Russian pilot misunderstood orders he got via radio and indeed pressed the button, but that the missile did not launch due to technical malfunction.

One can only speculate how the story would have unfolded in the event of the Rivet Joint with a crew of over 30 being shot down and all lives lost. This is the one scenario that everybody, probably also the Russians, fear: war between Russia and NATO by accident or mishap or misunderstanding.

In my opinion such an act could not have gone by without very serious military reaction. After all Russia has no right to be where it now is in the Ukriane, and to wage this war of attack. If they open fire on NATO units, intentionally or accidentally, then so be it and so let things go the way they must. If the Russians do not want that ascenairo, then they should stop what they do and piss off and out of this war they have initiated.

------

Washington has put Hungary on a sanction list due to its Russia-supportive political course. Orban recently signed new deals with Russia over gas and/or oil and voiced his intention to increase his trading with Russia.

-------

Rasputitia, rain and mud season, has started unusually early this year, and has delayed the plans for an Ukrainian offensive. By past patterns of how Rasputitia fades out and the country gets dry again, it is likely that this means the soil on the grounds Ukraine must attack first in an advance dries earlier than the regions where the Russians have much, most of thier heavy armour. So this delay has a chance to actually work for the advantage of the Ukraine once their offensive starts. However, it gives Russia more time to prepare, of course. Things could be delayed further until late May.

No matter what, a Ukrainian success from this offensive is anything but certain, I fear. Possible a success is - but not to be taken for granted, its not even the most likely outcome, imo. It could give them some regional gains here and there, nevertheless ending in a stalemate again.

-----------

Ukraine fears to lose its camera drone advantage, since the Russians use Chinese camera drones as well now, like the Ukrainians. It could be that the Russians chose to use electronic warfare to deny the use of such drones in general - for themselves and for the ukrainians. That loss may affect both sides, but for the Ukrainians it is far more decisive a loss.

If the war drags on in trench and artillery warfare like now, its good for Russia and bad for Ukraine. If the war can be turned into a highly mobile manouver war again, then the Ukrainians can win the upper hand over the Russians.Worst is that the leaked documents shows that Ukraine has only 3 brigades ready (2 months ago) of the 9 needed for an offensive, otherwise no operational information was leaked, Ukraine can be happy about that. Offensive was also not expected in April, more May, June and think it will now be longer before we see an offensive from Ukrainian side. Ukraine will also start sharing less with the US again, this was already their main concern (the leak), which has now become true. Also, this all could be a false flag.

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZoIcrR7-SOc

[Skybird]

^ Thats pretty much how I guess things to be.

[mapuc]

It seems like almost everyone is talking about this Ukrainian spring offensive and where it will happen.

Either it will be in northeast(Donbas/Luhansk) or in South(taking Crimea)Says a majority.

My thoughts on this:

Who says it will be an offensive at all ?

If it does-Do you think they will attack in these two areas. Russia have they senses out and have build fortifications in those areas.

Where it would come, if it does happen I don't know-Maybe Denys was right when he said in one of his video clip-That they would go after Melitopol and continue to the sea and thereby cut the Russian forces in two.

My guesses are as good as anyone.

Markus

[Dargo]

It seems like almost everyone is talking about this Ukrainian spring offensive and where it will happen.

Either it will be in northeast(Donbas/Luhansk) or in South(taking Crimea)Says a majority.

My thoughts on this:

Who says it will be an offensive at all ?

If it does-Do you think they will attack in these two areas. Russia have they senses out and have build fortifications in those areas.

Where it would come, if it does happen I don't know-Maybe Denys was right when he said in one of his video clip-That they would go after Melitopol and continue to the sea and thereby cut the Russian forces in two.

My guesses are as good as anyone.

MarkusIt will come where Ukraine intelligence think Russia is the weakest, but they need first have built up their counteroffensive brigades and resources to supply from the past I believe they were born for this Ukraine knows the best how to counter this. Taking Crimea is a false flag by Ukraine the whole Ukraine counteroffensive is meant to give Ukraine a better negotiation position, this war will not be won by retaking territory alone. Main purpose will be to cut the supply lines of Russia into two parts so that the threat from Crimea becomes not sustainable for Russia, a push to Mariupol will make the supply lines too long for Russia.

[Skybird]

This war will drag on at least as long as Putin lives. Maybe even beyond his death. Putin can only live on by keeping the war running.

[mapuc]

It will come where Ukraine intelligence think Russia is the weakest, but they need first have built up their counteroffensive brigades and resources to supply from the past I believe they were born for this Ukraine knows the best how to counter this. Taking Crimea is a false flag by Ukraine the whole Ukraine counteroffensive is meant to give Ukraine a better negotiation position, this war will not be won by retaking territory alone. Main purpose will be to cut the supply lines of Russia into two parts so that the threat from Crimea becomes not sustainable for Russia, a push to Mariupol will make the supply lines too long for Russia.

I do not criticize the Ukrainian military-They have shown they are the best in the world right now and yes-they will attack where Russian are weakest.

Can't remember who of you wrote some days ago.

Russia has learned their lesson they have dug them self heavy guarded defence line or fortifications. However is this the case on the entire front.

As time goes the Russian has time to fortify their defences and expand them.

My guess on how this offensive will go

The attack will be like an arrowhead thus punching a hole in the Russian defense line

One thing I'm certain of-They(Ukrainian) will start the offensive with heavy bombardment and low flying attack with SU25 to pave way for the offensive.

I could very well imagine Ukrainian does this where the offensive isn't gonna happen.

I have a wildly imagination

Markus

[Dargo]

I do not criticize the Ukrainian military-They have shown they are the best in the world right now and yes-they will attack where Russian are weakest.

Can't remember who of you wrote some days ago.

Russia has learned their lesson they have dug them self heavy guarded defence line or fortifications. However is this the case on the entire front.

As time goes the Russian has time to fortify their defences and expand them.

My guess on how this offensive will go

The attack will be like an arrowhead thus punching a hole in the Russian defense line

One thing I'm certain of-They(Ukrainian) will start the offensive with heavy bombardment and low flying attack with SU25 to pave way for the offensive.

I could very well imagine Ukrainian does this where the offensive isn't gonna happen.

I have a wildly imagination

MarkusThink these videos explain it good
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-PCg-ba9tRI
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uRboVa5zyUk

[Dargo]

This war will drag on at least as long as Putin lives. Maybe even beyond his death. Putin can only live on by keeping the war running.There is no instance of a country having benefited from prolonged warfare. If Putin dies, the power struggle will decide the outcome of this war it will come of its own accord, unengineered by anyone, born in the chaos of the Kremlin.

[Skybird]

There is no instance of a country having benefited from prolonged warfare. If Putin dies, the power struggle will decide the outcome of this war it will come of its own accord, unengineered by anyone, born in the chaos of the Kremlin.
What cares Putin Russia? If he now agrees to seize fire and retreat, if he looses the war - he will get shot. He cannot end the war without massive, funamental wins, a victory. And if he cannot win, the the only way for him to extend his worthless life and not getting shot is to keep the war running.

Thats why I think any hope to negotiate with him is completely illusory, pointless, misled. Of that I am 100% certain. If he does that and gives ground, his own minions will kill him. And he knows that. So...

This implies that any offer by him to negotiate is just a trap, is deception, is not meant serious.

This also means that Putin cannot have any interest at all to negotiate. It would mean he negotiates his own death.


If he dies, by bullet or rope or poison or missile or cancer of whatever, the fight for power will break loose openly. And it is not certain at all that the successor of Putin will be any milder than Putin was. In fact his successor likely will be even worse.

Putin's life is at stake, and that is what commands his political decisions.

[Dargo]

What cares Putin Russia? If he now agrees to seize fire and retreat, if he looses the war - he will get shot. He cannot end the war without massive, funamental wins, a victory. And if he cannot win, the the only way for him to extend his worthless life and not getting shot is to keep the war running.

Thats why I think any hope to negotiate with him is completely illusory, pointless, misled. Of that I am 100% certain. If he does that and gives ground, his own minions will kill him. And he knows that. So...

This implies that any offer by him to negotiate is just a trap, is deception, is not meant serious.

This also means that Putin cannot have any interest at all to negotiate. It would mean he negotiates his own death.


If he dies, by bullet or rope or poison or missile or cancer of whatever, the fight for power will break loose openly. And it is not certain at all that the successor of Putin will be any milder than Putin was. In fact his successor likely will be even worse.

Putin's life is at stake, and that is what commands his political decisions.Russia is a dictatorship. A strong one. Putin faces no challengers from elites or society that a democratic leader might face when fighting or losing a war. People criticizing Putin for failing to achieve his initial objectives, which he clearly stated in his February 21, 2022, address, have no way to overthrow him or to even really criticize him. Putin can define victory in any way he wants. Tomorrow on television, Putin could declare victory by claiming that he freed the people of Donbas from fascists, protected “ethnic Russians” in Crimea, or stopped NATO’s invading forces in Ukraine before they reached Russian borders. If Putin ended his war tomorrow and claimed victory, the vast majority of Russians would support him. Russian leaders have done so repeatedly throughout history too, including in Afghanistan as well as at the end of World War I, the Japan-Russia war, and even the first Chechen war (Yeltsin, suffering heavy losses, agreed to a ceasefire in exchange for territorial autonomy, but not independence.). I don’t know what Putin will do if he starts to lose in Donbas or Crimea. And so don’t you. But we all should recognize that he is not suicidal, he is not crazy, and that he has options.

[Skybird]

No, I think you overestimate the stabilty of putins system. It has degraded, has lost stability over the war. I talk not of the people on the street, but the sharks in the pool putin himself also sits in.

[Dargo]

No, I think you overestimate the stabilty of putins system. It has degraded, has lost stability over the war. I talk not of the people on the street, but the sharks in the pool putin himself also sits in.Putin still controls the FSB and its security forces and army the rest are irrelevant political he has full control Wagner and the Chechen have lost the power struggle Putin has full control over the power triangle like Stalin created it. But this can all crumble we can not predict when or how we did not foresee the czar abdicated or the fail of the USSR all happened by surprise and suddenly.

[August]

Worst is that the leaked documents shows that Ukraine has only 3 brigades ready (2 months ago) of the 9 needed for an offensive, otherwise no operational information was leaked, Ukraine can be happy about that. Offensive was also not expected in April, more May, June and think it will now be longer before we see an offensive from Ukrainian side. Ukraine will also start sharing less with the US again, this was already their main concern (the leak), which has now become true. Also, this all could be a false flag.


The Ukrainians have 20k combat troops that just finished training in the UK a week or two ago. That's five more brigades right there.

[Jimbuna]

In Kyiv, top officials shrug off US documents leak.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65277838

I don't see them having any other choice, America being their biggest backer.

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e-2I63rmC0E

[mapuc]

And another leak

https://twitter.com/Flash_news_ua/status/1647214321213005824

Reading these status-There are 3 notes.
Made me recall the discussion between Dargo and Skybird.

Markus

[Dargo]

And another leak

https://twitter.com/Flash_news_ua/status/1647214321213005824

Reading these status-There are 3 notes.
Made me recall the discussion between Dargo and Skybird.

MarkusArticle via Google Translate dunno what kind of newspaper this is Skybird think could tell better https://www-focus-de.translate.goog/politik/ausland/ukraine-krise/sabotage-waehrend-chemotherapie-geleakte-dokumente-bestaetigen-krebs-erkrankung-bei-putin_id_190976453.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp

In general, I see no evidence here, looks more a copy/paste article like there are many

[Skybird]

FOCUS is a weekly magazine like Der Spiegel, centrist-left, but not as left as the Spiegel. A high profile publication over here, quite known, quite popular. Not my favourite (that would be the Swiss NZZ), but I regularly check it.

[mapuc]

Article via Google Translate dunno what kind of newspaper this is Skybird think could tell better https://www-focus-de.translate.goog/politik/ausland/ukraine-krise/sabotage-waehrend-chemotherapie-geleakte-dokumente-bestaetigen-krebs-erkrankung-bei-putin_id_190976453.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp

In general, I see no evidence here, looks more a copy/paste article like there are many

Makes one wonder if we have a wish that Putin is terminal ill and thus letting our intelligent service create stories on which we believe.

No-I don't think they make up stories as they go..It could be the info they get is not correct.

In the beginning of the war he was suffering from some other disease(Can't remember-Maybe it was Cancer)

In my mind though, there's no doubt that some Russian generals are thinking about taking out Putin in a coup. Due to the heavy loses in Ukraine.

Markus

[Dargo]

Makes one wonder if we have a wish that Putin is terminal ill and thus letting our intelligent service create stories on which we believe.

No-I don't think they make up stories as they go..It could be the info they get is not correct.

In the beginning of the war he was suffering from some other disease(Can't remember-Maybe it was Cancer)

In my mind though, there's no doubt that some Russian generals are thinking about taking out Putin in a coup. Due to the heavy loses in Ukraine.

MarkusYes we are all those stories are based on images from tv by Putin if he had all those symptoms he is analyzed by so-called experts hey would already be in his grave I believe it when I see him in an open coffin in the Kremlin. The same goes for all that he is gone be over thrown all wishful thinking by Kremlin watchers, I never in my life see predict really what is happening in the Kremlin.

[Catfish]

Report on the Moskva. Seems it was not fit for duty at ll, most systems being malfunctioning due to lack of maintenance and missing basic components..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KpHC7GntCZI

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hLNDhfyCndo

[mapuc]

^ Remembering what Dargo wrote yesterday, that they would go for Mariopol. Makes me wonder if this could be the beginning of the offensive ?

Markus

[Skybird]

Report on the Moskva. Seems it was not fit for duty at ll, most systems being malfunctioning due to lack of maintenance and missing basic components..

Sure you are not talking about the Bundesmarine?


:O:

[Skybird]

This is what Marfopil and Stepanivka look like. Two, three streets with some huts lined up to the side. I would not read too much into that.



https://i.postimg.cc/MZDQWQLX/Unbenannt.png (https://postimg.cc/2316GVrf)

[Dargo]

^ Remembering what Dargo wrote yesterday, that they would go for Mariopol. Makes me wonder if this could be the beginning of the offensive ?

MarkusNot yet saw no deep targeting of Ukraine by HIMARS on supply hubs, this could be testing for weak spots about goals I would think of Melitopol, Berdiansk and Maripol all mayor centers for supply if they get one or two of those cities Russia has no other option to withdraw because their supply lines would be cut. https://soar.earth/maps/14105?pos=47.40638897947842%2C35.25806451992753%2C 8.10

[Jimbuna]

Russian president Vladimir Putin has been urged to end the war in Ukraine by the head of the Wagner mercenary army deployed by the Kremlin.

Yevgeny Prigozhin claimed Russia had taken a “fat chunk” of Ukrainian territory and said president Putin should tell the world Russia has achieved the aims of its “special military operation,” in a video posted online on Friday night.

Mr Prigozhin also said Russian armed forces - who have suffered severe losses - should defend existing gains.

The Wagner mercenary chief also warned that the Russian people may seek a “scapegoat” for military failures as the war drags on, which could lead to revolutionary fervour.

Mr Prigozhin claimed Russia has destroyed “a large part of the active male population of Ukraine” and caused others to flee the country.

The comments mark the first time a senior Putin henchman directly involved in fighting on the ground has publicly called for the Kremlin to halt the war.

It comes after Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a bill to make it easier to mobilise Russians into the army, and prevent them from fleeing the country if drafted.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/ukraine-russia-war-live-putin-told-to-end-war-by-own-wagner-mercenary-chief/ar-AA19Tk4d?ocid=mailsignout&pc=U591&cvid=2918311601cb4a67a834a04b30fb73fb&ei=26

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vDi4QF_yBII

[Jimbuna]

It is being reported that Kyiv is not overly concerned about the documents leak.

[mapuc]

When I read Skybirds comment in our Ger-politics thread
https://www.subsim.com/radioroom/showpost.php?p=2863239&postcount=1947

No they(Russia)can't be so clever...Planning on attacking Ukraine knowing the West/Nato would help Ukraine and thereby empty our reserves.

This what popped up in my head reading it...Then I came to my senses and said maybe in a bad action movie, not in the real life.

The thought was there for a minute-Before the invasion, Putin and his gang has this meeting where they is planning on taking back the former satellite state and first they has to make Nato weak and unable to fight for at longer time and they would do so by invade Ukraine in first step.

I even got the idea that Hungary would join Belarus and be part of Russia.

Nothing of this is going to happen. It's me with a lively fantasy

Markus

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s1pZNqI0RuU

[Reece]

Now that wouldn't surprise me, they are not stupid just immoral. :nope::stare::x

[Jimbuna]

Nothing beats living in a democratic country blessed with freedom of opinion and speech.....like Russia :o

Opposition activist Vladimir Kara-Murza has been sentenced to 25 years in jail in Russia for treason and other charges linked to his criticism of the war in Ukraine.

The Russian-British former journalist and politician is the latest of a number of Putin opponents to have been arrested or forced to flee Russia.

He has denied the charges and been vocally critical of his trial.

Last week, he said: "I subscribe to every word that I have said."

"Not only do I not repent any of this, I am proud of it," he told a Moscow court.

The 41-year-old played a key role in persuading Western governments to sanction Russian officials for human rights abuses and corruption.

His 25-year sentence was the top number sought by prosecutors and is the longest sentence an opposition figure has received so far.

Mr Kara-Murza was arrested a year ago in Moscow, initially for disobeying a police officer. More serious charges were levelled at him once he was in custody.

His case was partly based on a speech he made to politicians in the US last year, where he said Russia was committing war crimes in Ukraine with cluster bombs in residential areas and "the bombing of maternity hospitals and schools".

Those claims have been independently documented - but deemed false by Russian investigators who said the defence ministry did "not permit the use of banned means… of conducting war" and insisted Ukraine's civilian population was not a target.

Another charge stemmed from an event for political prisoners at which Mr Kara-Murza referred to what investigators called Russia's "supposedly repressive policies".
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65297003

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FIhWcZduAG8

[Skybird]

https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/04/16/ukraines-counter-offensive-is-drawing-near



Ukraine’s offensive force consists of at least a dozen brigades (some sources say up to 18), nine of which have been armed and supplied by Western allies (a brigade tends to be several thousand men). Those nine are due to have more than 200 tanks (https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/01/22/what-western-tanks-should-give-ukraine-in-the-next-round-of-the-war), 800 other armoured vehicles and 150 pieces of field artillery in total, according to American intelligence documents which leaked onto the internet (https://www.economist.com/united-states/2023/04/10/a-leak-of-files-is-one-of-americas-worst-intelligence-breaches-in-a-decade) in early March and widely circulated in April. It is a large force but with some glaring weaknesses.
The majority of its vehicles have little or no armour. The amount of artillery is relatively modest—the 21st brigade appears to have just ten guns allocated to it. Notably, the newest equipment is spread thinly across units rather than concentrated in a few. Ukraine might make changes to its order of battle in response to the leaks, but it cannot dismantle and reconstitute brigades that might have been training and preparing together for weeks or months.
"the newest equipment is spread thinly across units rather than concentrated in a few."


:ping: Oh-oh. :hmmm: I have a bad feeling about this. :o


It also seems that Ukraine becomes increasingly vulnerable to air attacks. No good news for the Western-delivered tanks. Countering air threats is beyond their ability.

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xdvGLbkB2cE

[Jimbuna]

Russian President Vladimir Putin has visited occupied parts of the Ukrainian region of Kherson.

He attended a military meeting to hear reports from commanders, according to the Kremlin.

Mr Putin is also thought to have visited the Luhansk region. Russia annexed Kherson and Luhansk last year.

Such trips by the Russian leader are rare, although he made a surprise visit to the city of Mariupol in March.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65308470

[Aktungbby]

Russian President Vladimir Putin has visited occupied parts of the Ukrainian region of Kherson.

He attended a military meeting to hear reports from commanders, according to the Kremlin.

Mr Putin is also thought to have visited the Luhansk region. Russia annexed Kherson and Luhansk last year.

Such trips by the Russian leader are rare, although he made a surprise visit to the city of Mariupol in March.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65308470...or his expendible body-double did!?:O:

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mO1ZrWNAeBk

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8RhxL7-u_eo

[mapuc]

For me it's only the waiting for the upcoming Spring offensive by the Ukrainians Will it be a success ? Will it be a failure ?

I hope they will have success with their offensive and manage to cut the Russian occupation in two.
Which there are some who think they will

Which can be dangerous-Attacking and thereby creating a corridor from Mariopol or Melitopol to where the front is now.

I believe they will take the rest of Kherson Oblast down to the Crimea border.
Can even be they take/try to take Donbass.

Markus

[Skybird]

I fear the repairing of that Leo-2 will take some more effort than just the few profanities Deny laid out. All wiring. All existing hydraulic and/or electric motor connections between turret and hull, all electronic components must be checked and readjusted. And the gun's loading chamber may also have warped: in that case, more than just a new barrel will be due. Some of the optical systems in the turret are mounted on movable bearings, so they will certainly have to be recalibrated, if not replaced.

[Skybird]

For me it's only the waiting for the upcoming Spring offensive by the Ukrainians Will it be a success ? Will it be a failure ?

I hope they will have success with their offensive and manage to cut the Russian occupation in two.
Which there are some who think they will

Which can be dangerous-Attacking and thereby creating a corridor from Mariopol or Melitopol to where the front is now.

I believe they will take the rest of Kherson Oblast down to the Crimea border.
Can even be they take/try to take Donbass.

Markus
The Russians certainly expect an attack at the direction of Melitopol. They have established three defence lines, deeply dug in, and deeply staggered. So it won't be a foregone conclusion for the Ukrainians. And maybe that's why they will not do what the Russians expect. Everyone who has trained martial arts knows how important it is to have a secure footing - and that the actual attack is often preceded by depriving the opponent of his secure footing beforehand, by throwing him off balance. Without this, attack and attack success are often not possible at all. Frontal direct attacks Ukraine can actually afford only if it had total fire superiority. I don't know if it has it, but I doubt it. ukrainian artillery has better quality and skill, but Russia has far higher gun quantity and ammunition.

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nk-SOQ4Nfl8

[Skybird]

Meanwhile, Swedish intelligence spokesmen and media report that around fifty Russian spy and sabotage ships are systematically scanning, apparently mapping, and collecting precise location coordinates of offshore wind farms, submarine cables, and pipelines in the Baltic, the North Sea, and the pan-European Atlantic. Several of these vessels have also been confirmed by NATO in the past to probably have the capability for technical sabotage of such critical infrastructure.


50 such ships. In the Baltic and the North Sea and the nearshore Atlantic alone.

[Jimbuna]

Russia has a programme to sabotage wind farms and communication cables in the North Sea, according to new allegations.

The details come from a joint investigation by public broadcasters in Denmark, Norway, Sweden and Finland.

It says Russia has a fleet of vessels disguised as fishing trawlers and research vessels in the North Sea.

They carry underwater surveillance equipment and are mapping key sites for possible sabotage.

The BBC understands that UK officials are aware of Russian vessels moving around UK waters as part of the programme.

The first of a series of reports is due to be broadcast on Wednesday by DR in Denmark, NRK in Norway, SVT in Sweden and Yle in Finland.

A Danish counter-intelligence officer says the sabotage plans are being prepared in case of a full conflict with the West while the head of Norwegian intelligence told the broadcasters the programme was considered highly important for Russia and controlled directly from Moscow.

The broadcasters say they have analysed intercepted Russian communications which indicate so-called ghost ships sailing in Nordic waters which have turned off the transmitters so as not to reveal their locations.

The report focuses on a Russian vessel called the Admiral Vladimirsky. Officially, this is an Expeditionary Oceanographic Ship, or underwater research vessel. But the report alleges that it is in fact a Russian spy ship.

The documentary uses an anonymous former UK Royal Navy expert to track the movements of the vessel in the vicinity of seven wind farms off the coast of the UK and the Netherlands on one mission.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65309687

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RnQgSgQj9Kk

[Jimbuna]

Total combat losses of Russian Federation since beginning of war - about 183,750 people (+620 per day), 3,665 tanks, 2,819 artillery systems, 7,110 armored vehicles

As of the morning of April 19, 2023, the losses of the Russian occupiers are approximately 183,750 people.

This is reported by Censor.NET with reference to the press center of the General Staff.

As noted, the total combat losses of the enemy from 24/02/22 to 19/04/23 are approximately:

personnel - about 183,750 (+620) people were eliminated,
tanks - 3665 (+4) units,
armored combat vehicles - 7110 (+12) units,
artillery systems - 2819 (+9) units,
MLRS - 538 (+0) units,
air defense equipment - 285 (+0) units,
aircraft - 308 (+0) units,
helicopters - 293 (+0) units,
UAVs of operational-tactical level - 2376 (+23),
cruise missiles - 911 (+0),
ships/boats - 18 (+0) units,
automotive equipment and tank trucks - 5692 (+16) units,
special equipment - 330 (+0). Source: https://censor.net/en/n3412982

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j-K5uDy0TKg

[Catfish]

"Putin's Wagner [...] admit their atrocities in Ukraine. Savichev said, he and other Wagner fighters killed “several dozen” injured ukrainian Prisoners of war “tossing grenades” into the ditch where they were held. “We'd torture soldiers too, there weren’t any rules.” "
He also said he would go and do it again. Did Russia sign any treaties regarding POWs?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/apr/18/wagner-mercenary-admits-tossing-grenades-at-injured-ukrainian-pows

[Jimbuna]

Do try to keep up Kai https://subsim.com/radioroom/showpost.php?p=2863771&postcount=10708

:O:

[Jimbuna]

Wouldn't mind having a try of this bad boy.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4XJfriyLVRQ

[Catfish]

Solovyov believes (does he?) that the article in "Die Welt" (a german newspaper) is a casus belli and calls for a nuclear strike on Germany.

"he already said this about France, UK, Poland, Baltics, Finland, Washington DC, NYC which countries & cities are missing on their feverish fetish nuke dreams?"

https://twitter.com/TheKremlinYap/status/1648413206321283072?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5 Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1648413206321283072%7Ctwgr% 5E446cf2a07792e82a31150cfffa22a5309d7a3868%7Ctwcon %5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fs9e.github.io%2Fiframe%2Ftwi tter.min.html1648413206321283072


It is the first time I hear a Kremlin follower publicly mention the idea of killing Putin :hmmm:

[Jimbuna]

It is being reported that Stoltenberg is in Ukraine today.

[mapuc]

It has been revealed through these top secret documents that Denmark have given Ukraine 12 AMRAAM AIM 120

They should be used in the American defence system Nasam

This was new to me-I have until now always thought those missiles only was made for fighter jets.

(Tried to find an English title of the Danish version)

Markus

[Skybird]

Wouldn't mind having a try of this bad boy.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4XJfriyLVRQ
The rifle "has a little brother named T-Rex".


If T-Rex is the littlebrother of this monster, than I wonder what Mom and Dad are looking like? :o

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4dS_84Iw4UA

[Jimbuna]

Some might call it 'Karma'

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rgw2Sl_bXYc

[Commander Wallace]

Some might call it 'Karma'

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rgw2Sl_bXYc




You know, I have been hearing great things about karma. :yep:


I like Karma. :D

[Skybird]

Rumour has it that the pilot just got divorced and during that divorce procedure got financially pulled over the table by his ex-wife's lawyer.

He started for the mission but then saw her walking on the street below him.

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LjIaeJH57-Q

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Kdv3xWbZpw

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BtC2SJwbGxQ

[Dargo]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g7TeLWanYzI

[Catfish]

What about the russian economy ... crash does not really describe it

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=By9fcFMMHko

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5JtI60ZHgNY

[Skybird]

Ukrainian forces should have landed on the Russian-seized side of Dnjepr river near Cherson, and should have already implemented solid supply lines. Russian occupiers should be too weak to defend all land and small villages in that region, and focus only on major towns and cities.

I think its the first of a series of deceptive operations that will prepare the real offensive on several locations along the frontline in coming weeks. The real push will be revealed not before immediately bnefore it happens.The purpose of these feint attacks is to make the Russians engage their reserves by building threats.

I hope the content of the video posted by Catfish proves to be right. Obviously I enver was as optimistic in assessmentr of the economic sancitons, but I would not object at all to be proven wrong by the going of reality.

Still muddy terrain in Ukraine.

Good anaylsis by Gen. Hodges on the relevance of Crimea. I wonder why never ever I have heard this - obvious! - explanation on German quality state propaganda TV. Probably for the same reason why Scholz still never ever has spoken out the words "Ukrainian victory". All the time you only have to have a quick glance at a map to see why Crimea matters, and decides it all. Heck, its so very obvious!

Without Crimea, the Russian threat will persist, no matter seize firings, peace treaties and diplomatic babbling. Negotiations do not make sense as long as Crimea is occupied by the Russians. Its vital and essential for survival of Ukraine.

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iU9BzrHXaKU

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sE-wUbbDpcE

[Dargo]

Russia is taking into account the scenario that the counter-offensive will start here. That suspicion is fuelled by leaked intelligence documents from the Pentagon, which described that a Ukrainian brigade is being equipped with amphibious vehicles. The attack will begin as soon as the ground has dried up in southern Ukraine, allowing the tracked vehicles to run again, but ammunition supplies will be the deciding factor. Ammunition is the big issue, the last thing you want is to have to stop after a day because you have run out of ammunition. Then you run out of momentum, you have to have a robust stockpile if you want to start. Ukraine's spring offensive will not start until May or June at the earliest.

The Russians will have to prepare for every scenario. This is how it works-the attacker can choose where to attack, but the defender cannot choose where to defend. Ukraine will concentrate on one or two places with overwhelming superiority over the Russians, on land and in the air. It will not be easy to break through the Russian defense, Ukraine must first break in and then break through the line. If that succeeds, you can break out behind the line. But that could be a bloody and days-long battle. Any Russian who has to defend somewhere other than where Ukraine will start its offensive will not be deployed anywhere else.

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YHwZyzK6Al8

[Aktungbby]

https://www.subsim.com/radioroom/showpost.php?p=2836744&postcount=8033 Emmanuel Macron has been trying to triangulate between the U.S. and China, and it isn’t going well. China’s ambassador to Paris has now embarrassed the French President by declaring that the former nations of the Soviet Union aren’t really sovereign under international law.
China’s Ambassador Lu Shaye was asked on Friday on French TV whether he considered Crimea to be part of Ukraine under international law. In 2014 Russia occupied and annexed Crimea, which had been part of Ukraine since the dissolution of the Soviet empire.
Mr. Lu didn’t stop at Crimea. “Even these ex-Soviet Union countries do not have effective status, as we say, under international law because there’s no international accord to concretize their status as a sovereign country,” Mr. Lu said. The “as we say” is a nice diplomatic touch since the only international law that Beijing recognizes is what serves its increasingly imperial interests.
The diplomat is saying that the many countries that declared their independence when the Soviet Union dissolved aren’t independent at all. That would include Ukraine, but also the three Baltic states, Moldova, and the countries of central Asia like Georgia and Kazakhstan. The clear implication is that Russia is justified in its attempt to conquer Ukraine, and perhaps the other countries too. The Baltic states are furious and said they’d summon the Chinese ambassadors to their countries on Monday. The French Foreign Ministry responded with what it called “consternation” at Mr. Lu’s remarks and said Beijing should “say if these comments reflect its position, which we hope not to be the case.”
What did the French expect? Mr. Macron kowtowed to China’s Xi Jinping on his recent trip to Beijing, saying that Europe shouldn’t take a side over Taiwan. He also beseeched Mr. Xi to use his influence to mediate a settlement to the Russia-Ukraine war. China spotted weakness, as it always does, and has now spat on the French President’s entreaties. Any diplomatic clarification will be a ruse.
China wants the right to snatch any territory it wants to take, including Taiwan, (It already got Tibet) disputed islands off Japan and in the Western Pacific, and border lands with India and others. Maybe Mr. Macron will figure out he’s being played. Bottom line: WWIII is well underway and there are no rules other than the ones Russia and China espouse as needed enroute to their totalitarian 'New World Order'....Macron, who's nation was rescued twice in the last miserable century with a post-colonial sideshow in Viet Nam, should be well aware of this and stop kissing ass!

[Catfish]

https://www.subsim.com/radioroom/showpost.php?p=2836744&postcount=8033 Bottom line: WWIII is well underway and there are no rules other than the ones Russia and China espouse as needed enroute to their totalitarian 'New World Order'....Macron, who's nation was rescued twice in the last miserable century with a post-colonial sideshow in Viet Nam, should be well aware of this and stop kissing ass!
So true.

[Catfish]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YHwZyzK6Al8

I have no idea whether anything here is true or if it is just a diversion by Ukraine, but i love it –
:Kaleun_Wink:

[Dargo]

Dnieper crossing Ukraine striking, Russia can't ignore
News that Ukrainian soldiers have managed to cross the Dnieper River near Kherson has military analysts surprised. The Ukrainian operation is probably the first step of a larger plan, say former Commander of the Army Mart de Kruif and professor of war studies Frans Osinga. But exactly what that plan is remains guesswork for now - even if Russia should respond to it now. The US Institute for the Study of War reported yesterday that Ukrainian units have taken positions on the eastern bank of the Dnieper. That bank had previously been fully occupied by Russia. ISW relied on satellite images and information from Russian military bloggers. The units also reportedly rigged stable supply lines. Ukraine itself would not say anything about the operation. It is also unclear how many soldiers have made the crossing, and how long they have been there.

Crossing the Dnieper is quite a risk, says professor of war studies Frans Osinga. The river is about 600 meters wide at Kherson, and with every crossing you make yourself vulnerable. Especially given Ukraine's scarce capabilities, Osinga says it must have been a deliberate decision. So the question is what Ukraine is aiming at with the operation. Anyway, the Ukrainian presence on the eastern bank may help push Russian units further away from Kherson. Osinga: "The city was constantly bombarded by Russian artillery from November onwards, which prevented normal life from getting going there."

But whether that is the main reason? "I think you still have to think of something related to an offensive," says Mart de Kruif, former commander of the Land Forces. "Going over the Dnieper is not something you do lightly. To me, this is a side or mock attack, which can serve as a distraction or a starting point for further operations." Osinga also says this operation goes beyond the reconnaissance Ukraine previously conducted in the area. "This seems to be more permanent." The analysts stress that no conclusive answer can be given now as to what exactly Ukraine is planning. "The premise of being on that east bank is good, but that does not mean Ukraine is going to attack there," says De Kruif. In the swampy area with little infrastructure, that would not be obvious either. According to De Kruif, the action could be deception: attracting the Russians' attention here and then striking elsewhere. "Last year, Ukraine also hinted at an offensive near Kherson, upon which the Russians moved troops. Then Ukraine successfully struck in Kharkiv." That area is hundreds of kilometers away.

What is also striking at a glance at the map is the proximity of Crimea. Once you cross the Dnieper, it is still some 90 kilometers to the border with the peninsula, which was annexed by Russia back in 2014. Crossing the river is therefore a direct threat to Russia, says Osinga. "Russia cannot just ignore that. They have to do something with this." That pressure alone could be worth the effort, he says. "You have to see this as the first of several attacks where Ukraine is trying to find out where the Russians are weak," Osinga continues. The Institute for the Study of War, which was the first to report on the Dnieper crossing, argues that Russian units in the Kherson region are poorly organized and undermanned, especially now that better-trained soldiers are needed in other places. Osinga: "Russia is running up against the fact that the front is 1,000 kilometers long. You cannot put the most motivated and best-trained units everywhere." Whatever Ukraine is planning on the sly, it won't be easy. The Ukrainian soldiers crossed are in relatively inaccessible territory and with a 600-metre-wide river behind them. Quickly transferring more troops and pushing through is now impossible. "The logistics are very fragile," says Osinga. "It would be a risky undertaking to make this the base of your counteroffensive."

https://nos.nl/artikel/2472714-dnjepr-oversteek-oekraine-opvallend-kan-rusland-niet-negeren

[Skybird]

A chessplayer asks himself two questions all the time:
What is his threat to me? What threat can I make against him?
Threats must not materialise their object, nevertheless they force the enemy to react to them.

Also, its about getting into the command cycle of the enemy, and forcing more decisions on him than he can process in his military infrastructure. You overload his comms systems, his planning instances, you keep his feet busy and do not allow him to take a solid stand, or get rest. I assume this is where the Ukrainians have clear superiority over the Russians.

[mapuc]

It reminds me of what Von Rundstedt once said when he visit the construction of the Atlantic wall.

(From memory)
"If the enemy manage to dig them down on the beach they can't be thrown out again. It's therefore important to prevent them from doing this"

Markus

[Catfish]

Whatever, the front is now a thousand kilometers long. An attacker can choose where he hits, the defender cannot choose where he defends.

[Skybird]

Isolating Crimea by cutting the land corridor.
Start decimating Crimea hotspots with missiles.
After some time destroying the Kerch bridge as well, when nobody flees anymore.
Then again, more missiles.
And then missiles.
After that, guess it: lots of missiles.

They must not conquer the land square mile by square mile, at high own losses. They must only disrupt supply lines and keep them disrupted.

Its not about delivering a knockout punch, it's about putting the opponent in a headlock, taking away his breath and making sure not to loosen the grip, come what may, until the twitching and spasming stops.

Its not a boxing match with knockout punches, - its suffocating wrestling.

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8b-Buv51vss

[Jimbuna]

(Reuters) - Russia has begun using its new T-14 Armata battle tanks to fire on Ukrainian positions "but they have not yet participated in direct assault operations," the RIA state news agency reported on Tuesday, quoting a source close the matter.

RIA said that the tanks have been fitted with extra protection on their flanks and crews have undergone "combat coordination" at training grounds in Ukraine.

The T-14 tank has an unmanned turret, with crew remotely controlling the armaments from "an isolated armoured capsule located in the front of the hull."

The tanks have a maximum speed on the highway of 80 kilometres (50 miles) per hour, RIA reported.

In January, British military intelligence reported that Russian forces in Ukraine were reluctant to accept the first tranche of the tanks due to their "poor condition."

It also said that any deployment of the T-14 would likely be "a high-risk decision" for Russia, and one taken primarily for propaganda purposes.

"Production is probably only in the low tens, while commanders are unlikely to trust the vehicle in combat," the British military said.

"Eleven years in development, the programme has been dogged with delays, reduction in planned fleet size, and reports of manufacturing problems."

The Kremlin ordered production of 2,300 of the tanks - first unveiled in 2015 - by 2020, but this was later stretched to by 2025, according to Russian media reports.

The Interfax news agency reported in December, 2021, that the state conglomerate Rostec had started production of some 40 tanks, with an anticipated delivery after 2023.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/russia-s-new-t-14-armata-battle-tank-debuts-in-ukraine-ria/ar-AA1ail8h?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=b0fd21b6600147aebcb383fcfe522ecc&ei=51

[Skybird]

On paper the T-14 looks extremely impressive.

On paper the status and capabilities of the Russian army also looked extremely impressive.

:hmmm:

We will know soon enough.

[Jimbuna]

Another one bites the dust.

A wealthy pro-Putin MP with secret links to the UK was found dead with no explanation inside his home in Russia.

Nikolay Bortsov, 77 is the latest prominent Russian figure to die after a string of mysterious deaths.

Bortsov had previously been sanctioned by Britain due to his support for Vladimir Putin's war in Ukraine.

A leak in 2019 revealed that the multi-millionaire had secretly obtained "indefinite leave to remain" status in the UK.

This was despite of him being an ally of Putin and a support in the Russian parliament, the State Duma.

The MP was discovered dead at his home in the Lipetsk region of Russia with no cause given.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/pro-putin-multi-millionaire-oligarch-with-secret-links-to-uk-mysteriously-ends-up-dead/ar-AA1ajyDD?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=d33389fbbd404214935b893b81c3cafc&ei=19

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8BlkWVDDQXs

[mapuc]

^ So Russia want a deescalation of the crisis between USA and Russia-That's easy, Russia just have withdraw it's troop from Ukraine and pay for the damage they have done in Ukraine and to the Ukrainian people.

Markus

[Jimbuna]

That would be a death sentence for Putin.

[August]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wwqd6Wm9EPQ

[mapuc]

^.....or turn the war into a WWIII

Markus

[August]

^.....or turn the war into a WWIII

Markus


We'll find out.