Here we go again-Ukraine once again

[Skybird]

While Germany, france and other European NATO members endlessly talk about hpow to pretend one delievrs wepaons while one does not, the US seems to mull the dleiovery of M270 MRSL systems. Somethign with that range and Boom is desperately needed by the - artillery-wise: outgunned - Ukrainian forces -. The US also already has dleivered a high number of towed modern howitzers.

Still, BBC says:

Russian forces will not capture Luhansk in the coming days but Ukraine may have to evacuate some of its forces there for their own protection, the region's governor has said. "It is possible that in order not to be surrounded we will have to retreat," Serhiy Haidai wrote.In an evening military report he also described how dangerous everyday life was in the Ukrainian-controlled areas of Luhansk.
Remaining civilians "are constantly in shelters, it is almost impossible to go outside due to the density of shelling," he said.
Haidai added that Russian forces have been continuing to target the city of Severodonetsk, where fighting has broken out on the outskirts of the city.

Lavrov has threatened the crossing of a red line in case MLRS gets delivered. Somebody is worried, that means. Who cares.

I am just wondering whether the US is not worried that the system could end up in Russian hands? Or is it too old to be of technical intel value for them?


The delivery of Western artillery is needed for another reaosn as well: the ukrainians are running out of ammo for their Russian-made artillery, and that ammo is made and was delivered - by Russia. Which means there is no resupply being delivered, obviously. Western systems use different callibres.

[ET2SN]

Lavrov has threatened the crossing of a red line in case MLRS gets delivered. Somebody is worried, that means. Who cares.



How do you know when Lavrov is lying?

His lips are moving.

:Kaleun_Thumbs_Up:

[Dargo]

While Germany, france and other European NATO members endlessly talk about hpow to pretend one delievrs wepaons while one does not, the US seems to mull the dleiovery of M270 MRSL systems. Somethign with that range and Boom is desperately needed by the - artillery-wise: outgunned - Ukrainian forces -. The US also already has dleivered a high number of towed modern howitzers.

Still, BBC says:

Russian forces will not capture Luhansk in the coming days but Ukraine may have to evacuate some of its forces there for their own protection, the region's governor has said. "It is possible that in order not to be surrounded we will have to retreat," Serhiy Haidai wrote.In an evening military report he also described how dangerous everyday life was in the Ukrainian-controlled areas of Luhansk.
Remaining civilians "are constantly in shelters, it is almost impossible to go outside due to the density of shelling," he said.
Haidai added that Russian forces have been continuing to target the city of Severodonetsk, where fighting has broken out on the outskirts of the city.

Lavrov has threatened the crossing of a red line in case MLRS gets delivered. Somebody is worried, that means. Who cares.

I am just wondering whether the US is not worried that the system could end up in Russian hands? Or is it too old to be of technical intel value for them?


The delivery of Western artillery is needed for another reaosn as well: the ukrainians are running out of ammo for their Russian-made artillery, and that ammo is made and was delivered - by Russia. Which means there is no resupply being delivered, obviously. Western systems use different callibres.Better take your loss than lose your army there will be other days to fight

[Dargo]

U.S. to Send Advanced Rocket Systems to Kyiv, Officials Say
Mobile artillery launchers, expected to arrive within weeks, would enable Ukraine to strike Russian batteries in Donbas The Biden administration is expected to announce as early as next week it will send to Ukraine long-range rocket systems Kyiv says are necessary to fight off the Russian... https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-to-send-advanced-rocket-systems-to-kyiv-officials-say-11653675804

[Skybird]

I just red minutes ago the opposite - that the Pentagon has dampened expectations and a decision has not been made this Friday. And that they are "mindful of the request.

[mapuc]

I just red minutes ago the opposite - that the Pentagon has dampened expectations and a decision has not been made this Friday. And that they are "mindful of the request.

This made me recall what they once said in the news here. Biden has some advisor who will guide him in when he could do, without crossing the line. So maybe it could be why they are mindful of the request.

It's important for USA to give all the help to Ukraine without crossing the red line.

Markus

[Skybird]

Russia still eyes total victory and another major assault to capture Kyiv.

https://meduza.io/en/feature/2022/05/27/we-ll-grind-them-down-in-the-end

Send Ukraine heavy weapons, weapons, weapons, Europe. No empty and thus: cheap phrases of solidarity that are worth nothing since they do nothing. But heavy weapons.

[Skybird]

This made me recall what they once said in the news here. Biden has some advisor who will guide him in when he could do, without crossing the line. So maybe it could be why they are mindful of the request.

It's important for USA to give all the help to Ukraine without crossing the red line.

Markus
Red line? What should that be? Fro the moment you give a pistol to the one side in a war, you have overstepped the red line between being neutral and being a party in that war: you have chosen your side.



If the Russians want to turn even nastier, they will always turn just evertyhing into a fake augment of that they have been provoked and that the toher overstepped a red line. All this tlakign about red lines is completely pointless and useless.



We have just two outcomes to chose from: either we want Ukraine victoriously defending its integrity and sovereignty (and obviously big nations in Europe like Germany and France do not want that), or we want the Ukraine to become an appendix of Russia and a fair chance of war against Russia in the forseeable future when it goes again after some foreign territories west of it.


Many people in Germany are so very anti-American that they prefer becoming Russian vasalls to being allied with America. You see a merciless stubborness to glorify Russia in the Eastgerman federal states, due to the life-long indoctrination during the GDR, but in the Bundestag also amongst the AfD, the SED, and significant parts of the SPD.



France wants business as usual again with Russia, and wants no big nation associated with Europe that potneitally could beocme a rival for one'S own ambitions. France needs Russian nculear fuel. Russia's Rosatom agency so far has been saved from any sanctions, AFAIK.



The Ukraine may quietly fall to the wayside.

[mapuc]

Red line? What should that be? Fro the moment you give a pistol to the one side in a war, you have overstepped the red line between being neutral and being a party in that war: you have chosen your side.



If the Russians want to turn even nastier, they will always turn just evertyhing into a fake augment of that they have been provoked and that the toher overstepped a red line. All this tlakign about red lines is completely pointless and useless.



We have just two outcomes to chose from: either we want Ukraine victoriously defending its integrity and sovereignty (and obviously big nations in Europe like Germany and France do not want that), or we want the Ukraine to become an appendix of Russia and a fair chance of war against Russia in the forseeable future when it goes again after some foreign territories west of it.


Many people in Germany are so very anti-American that they prefer becoming Russian vasalls to being allied with America. You see a merciless stubborness to glorify Russia in the Eastgerman federal states, due to the life-long indoctrination during the GDR, but in the Bundestag also amongst the AfD, the SED, and significant parts of the SPD.



France wants business as usual again with Russia, and wants no big nation associated with Europe that potneitally could beocme a rival for one'S own ambitions. France needs Russian nculear fuel. Russia's Rosatom agency so far has been saved from any sanctions, AFAIK.



The Ukraine may quietly fall to the wayside.

I'm not an expert on Foreign politics or military politics I just wrote what this Danish reporter said in the news some weeks ago.

That Biden had some advisor who guided him so he didn't cross the red line.

Markus

[tmccarthy]

https://youtu.be/Vol02oo1uFA

[tmccarthy]

https://youtu.be/vbRTZ8lUnm0

[ET2SN]

Oh great, everything we know or have learned in the past is wrong. :yeah:
Where have I heard that before? :hmmm:

[Dargo]

Ukraine for today received enough 'Harpoon' anti-ship missiles to sink the entire Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation, – Serhii Bratchuk, speaker of the Odesa Regional Military Administration

[Jimbuna]

Vladimir Putin has had an 80-minute phone call with French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

In the call the Russian leader was urged to hold "serious negotiations" with Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky.

Macron and Scholz also called for the release of Azovstal prisoners who are being held by Russia after their surrender at the steelworks.

Meanwhile, Russia's defence ministry says the town of Lyman in the Donetsk region has fallen under the full control of Russian forces.

Street fights are taking place in Severodonetsk as Russian forces seek to take control of the city, the regional governor Serhiy Haidai says.

Russia has scrapped its age limit for professional soldiers, paving the way for more civilian experts to be recruited for the Ukraine conflict.

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0EflRyVkCTU

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vi6gry4MWjo

[Dargo]

Ukrainian strategy seems not only not to withdraw South Donetsk, but to reinforce the whole Donbas area Ukrainian high command, even reinforcing the far tip of the pocket. There are signs in the that the Ukrainians are going to attrit the Russians down by making them fight for the whole pocket including Severdonetsk. It seems to be that the Ukrainian command has determined that they can make the Russians fight for the whole pocket, and that the wastage they can inflict on the Russians is worth the risk. It is also interesting to see the irritation expressed at some who were arguing the pocket was collapsing.

US DOD spokesperson J Kirby said yesterday that a number of the howitzer systems the US has sent to Ukraine are fighting in the Donbas. And moreover, it seems that the Ukrainians want to fight for what they have there. Ukrainians will continue to resist there. This would be consistent with their strategy in the beginning, to hold onto cities and force the Russians to try and fight street to street and bleed them down.

The communiqué from the Ukrainian armed forces also is portraying the situation in the Donbas as relatively under control. Claims to have beaten back Russian attacks around Severodonetsk, and Bakhmut. Russian attempts to expand out again from the Popasna bulge and towards South Donetsk have been unsuccessful. Lots of reliance on artillery, though, wonder if the Russians are running out of the mass of front line armor and APC's needed to advance. It has been a noticeable decline in Ukrainian claims of Russian losses in the last week.

[Jimbuna]

Russia has scrapped its age limit for professional soldiers, paving the way for more civilian experts to be recruited for the Ukraine conflict.

President Vladimir Putin has signed a law enabling people over 40 to enlist for the armed forces. They are expected to be people of normal working age.

Previously the army had age limits of 18-40 years for Russians and 18-30 for foreigners.

Russia is presenting it as a move to recruit more technical specialists.

The new law says specialists are required to operate high-precision weapons and "experience shows that they become such by the age of 40-45". More medics, engineers and communications experts may also be recruited.

Ukrainian and Western military experts say Russia has suffered heavy losses in the war: about 30,000 killed, according to Ukraine, while the UK government estimates the toll at about 15,000. In comparison, Soviet losses in nine years of war in Afghanistan were about 15,000.

Russia gave a total of 1,351 dead on 25 March, which it has not updated.

President Putin has avoided large-scale conscription for what Russia calls its "special military operation" in Ukraine.

But in March Russia's defence ministry admitted that some conscripts were involved in the conflict and some had been taken prisoner by Ukrainian forces. The defence ministry stressed that it was not official policy to send conscripts into battle.

Later, Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu said that those conscripts drafted into the military this spring would not be sent to any hotspots.

Conscription, also known as the draft, is a centuries-old practice for states to require large numbers of men to serve in the military. Russia's conscription, dating back to tsarist times, obliges men aged 18 to 27 to serve one year in the military. But many get exemptions on medical grounds, or because they are students.

Russia now has more than 400,000 professional "contract" soldiers in its 900,000-strong active armed forces. It can also mobilise about two million reservists, military analysts say.

Ukraine's army is a lot smaller - it has an estimated 200,000 active troops and 900,000 reservists, though it has boosted those numbers through mass mobilisation since Russia invaded on 24 February.

Under its current martial law, Ukraine forbids men aged 18 to 60 from leaving the country, demanding that they stay and fight. So women, children and the elderly form the vast majority of refugees fleeing to neighbouring countries.

Ukraine's military says it is not yet conscripting women, but some can be drafted exceptionally if their skills in medicine, IT or other areas are needed.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61619638

[mapuc]

According to Ukrainian military forces the Danish RGM-84 or harpoon have arrived. The Danes expect they will mount the firing-thing on a truck.

Markus

[Skybird]

From the Neue Zürcher Zeitung:


"Putin will not be satisfied with non-alignment. His goal is to bring Ukraine 'home to the empire'."

Leading German politicians have still not understood the extent of Russian revanchism, says Ralf Fücks. If Olaf Scholz gets his way with his hesitant stance, Kiev would have to accept a Russian dictatorial peace, believes the founder of the Berlin-based think tank Zentrum Liberale Moderne.

Mr. Fücks, you told me in the run-up to this interview that you had stumbled across an interview with Berlin political scientist Herfried Münkler that appeared in this newspaper. In it, Münkler called for a neutral Ukraine with European security guarantees. Is he a realist, while you are an idealist?

I think that is a false juxtaposition. At the beginning of the war, he was not a realist, but a defeatist: At that time, he predicted a rapid collapse of Ukraine because, like many supposed military experts, he underestimated its fighting power and overestimated the strength of the Russian army. But Münkler is also not a realist with regard to Russia's war aims: Vladimir Putin will not be satisfied with a non-aligned Ukraine. His goal is to bring Ukraine "home to the empire." What's more, he wants to revise NATO's eastward expansion and demands the withdrawal of American nuclear weapons from Europe. In fact, this would lead to Russian military dominance over Europe. Last but not least, Münkler reduces international politics to pure power politics without any normative dimension. But it is in our very own interest to defend a normative peace order in Europe and beyond.

Münkler also argues on the basis of geography: Ukraine is situated between Western Europe and Russia and therefore has only limited alliance potential.

This is an unhistorical view, since such spaces are constantly shifting. The Baltic states, as former Soviet republics, are now in NATO. The Russian attack triggered a new geopolitical dynamic: That Sweden and Finland would join the Western alliance seemed almost inconceivable a year ago; now it could happen at the speed of light. A similar acceleration could occur in the case of Ukraine, which, after all, has been on its way to the West at least since the Maidan protests of 2014. The idea that such a nation could be locked up in no-man's land against its will, which in reality would mean handing it over to Russian influence, is completely unrealistic.

Voices can also be heard, especially in Washington, saying that now is the opportunity to eliminate Russia as a major power and thus as a source of unrest for the foreseeable future. Is there a danger that Ukraine will be instrumentalized?

But Ukraine is the subject of this conflict! The decision to fight came from Ukraine, not from Washington and certainly not from the EU. Nobody has seriously in mind to attack Russia on its own territory. If Russia retreated today to the lines of February 23, the war would probably be over tomorrow. I doubt whether the West would then be willing to support a continuation of the war, especially since President Selensky has so far not formulated any offensive war aims. But more and more people in Ukraine are saying, "Now we're going to take back all of Donbass and Crimea, too." As far as I can see, however, that is not Selenski's position. He knows that the price in human lives would be very high for that.

What could be the outcome of the war?

I think two scenarios are the most likely: if the West throws its full weight behind it, Ukraine might succeed in pushing the Russians back to the February 23 line and perhaps a bit further toward the border. Then a cease-fire could be concluded, leading to negotiations. The second variant is that Russia does manage to conquer more territory in the south and east and cut Ukraine off from the sea. That would be the worst-case scenario. Whether it happens also depends on us. German politicians have not yet realized that modern wars are material battles in which weapons and ammunition have to be continuously replaced. If Olaf Scholz gets his way with his restrictive policy, we will force Ukraine into a ceasefire for lack of weapons. Then Kiev would have to accept that dictatorial peace on Russian terms, which Scholz says he does not want.

At the end of February, Scholz announced a turnaround, combined with significantly higher spending on the German military. Do you think he will stick to his announcements?

That is the big question. At the very least, major players in German politics have not yet understood the full extent of Russian revanchism. Ultimately, the illusion is still being nurtured that one could return to some form of cooperative arrangement. It has not yet dawned on everyone that we must pursue a strict policy of deterrence and containment toward this regime. Instead, we still see a lot of sympathy for the imperial reflex of Russia, which supposedly cannot be anything other than an empire that dominates other nations. Münkler, after all, also argues this way. But there can be no stable peace order in Europe until Russia takes the step that Germany, France, Britain and others have also had to take: from empire to modern nation-state.

If the war lasts longer, voices calling for a softer line toward Russia could again gain the upper hand in Germany.

That is also my fear: that then those will become louder who say that Ukraine should not make such a fuss and make the famous painful concessions. Henry Kissinger just said this in Davos. The concessions that would then be demanded from Ukraine would not only be of a territorial nature. The Kremlin has reverted to the old Brezhnev doctrine, which provides only limited sovereignty for states it counts as part of its sphere of influence. If we accept that, we will fall back into the division of Europe and the law of the strongest.

After the outbreak of the war, you said you still thought Putin was a coldly calculating power politician. Can there be peace with him, or do we first need regime change in Moscow?

In any case, it is not in our power to topple Putin; the Russians must do that themselves. But we must prevent Russia from starting new wars. And that will only succeed if this war ends with a Russian defeat. We must keep up the offer to Russia to return to the international community. But this is only possible if Moscow abides by the rules of international law and the European peace order.

What could come after Putin? Will chaos break out in Russia then?

Of course, this is possible, especially in the event of a devastating defeat of Russia. Already, some estimates speak of up to 25,000 Russian soldiers killed or wounded. If the economic crisis in Russia worsens, centrifugal tendencies cannot be ruled out: National minorities could insist on their right to self-determination. Another possible scenario is a military dictatorship. But it could also be that moderate forces take the helm at some point. Among the economic elite, a majority is likely to support an understanding with the West, if only out of self-interest. There is opposition potential, especially in the large cities. Hundreds of thousands have left the country since February 24. Ultimately, it will take a split among Russia's power elites to initiate change.

They are in favor of giving Ukraine EU candidate status; Chancellor Scholz is opposed. Given the current state of affairs in Ukraine, could such a step have any more than symbolic significance?

I think so. Among all the non-EU countries in Europe, Ukraine is the one with the strongest European will. There is a strong civil society that has driven many changes in recent years. The pro-European dynamic there is much greater than in Serbia, for example. Ukraine would not be a ballast for Europe, but an asset. There is enormous economic potential there: in digitalization, Ukraine is further ahead than Germany in many areas, and there are also great opportunities for close cooperation in renewable energies and agriculture. Agriculture also plays a role in the war: Russia is trying to get its hands on the breadbasket for the Middle East and use it as a strategic lever. Here, too, I think our policy is far too lax: Letting Moscow get away with blockading Ukrainian ports is exacerbating the hunger crisis in Africa and parts of Asia and may trigger new refugee movements that could destabilize Europe.

If the West did anything about the blockade of the ports, it would have to risk the direct conflict with Russia that many fear.

But what would Russia do if a coalition of states that could go beyond NATO sent a military convoy to secure grain ships? Would Putin really dare to start a war against this coalition? I don't think he could use any more military adversaries.

Do you understand that some in Germany are afraid of an escalation, at the end of which there could be a nuclear war in the worst case?

No one can rule out such a development with certainty. But Russia would risk its own destruction by doing so, and I don't believe that a gang of suicide bombers is sitting in the Kremlin. If we let fear of nuclear war dictate our policy, we give Putin a completely free hand to escalate the war. Then the Baltic States and Poland will also be in danger. Russian state television is already calling for a land bridge to Kaliningrad and the annexation of Moldova, Georgia and Kazakhstan.

There is now a lot of talk about the mistakes that Germany has made in its Russian policy in recent decades. Is it enough for German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier, for example, to admit that he was wrong about Putin, or would a more in-depth reappraisal be necessary?

I'm not interested in pillorying anyone. But we do need to take a closer look at what went wrong in the past in order to avoid making the same mistakes in the future. Simply saying, "sorry, we were wrong about Putin," and leaving it at that, avoids the necessary break. We need to account for how it was possible that we made our energy supply visibly dependent on Russia. There was a network of politics and business that systematically worked in this direction, and not only among the Social Democrats. The CSU also liked to adorn itself with its good relations with the Kremlin.

How do you see the SPD's dealings with Gerhard Schröder, who is considered a personal friend of Putin's and has earned a lot of money through his work for Russian energy companies?

The SPD has swept this problem under the carpet for far too long. After all, it's not just Schröder alone. As recently as February 2021, the Minister President of Lower Saxony, Stephan Weil, said that we should not make ourselves dependent on Ukraine for our energy supply and that we therefore needed the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. So he fully grasped the geopolitical dimension of the project, and that is precisely why he supported it!

Your own party, the Greens, now stand in the public perception as the ones who did everything right. In fact, by rejecting nuclear energy, they have also contributed to Germany's energy dependence on Russia.

The growing dependence on Russian gas was the blind spot of the nuclear phase-out and also of the accelerated phase-out of coal power, which is to come by 2030. There is nothing to shake about the coal phase-out for climate policy reasons, but the sequence "first nuclear, then coal" dates from a different time. We have not sufficiently addressed the conflicting goals associated with this.

Should Germany now think about phasing out nuclear power?

For me, this is no longer a question of principle; I see it pragmatically: How much would have to be invested to bring the remaining power plants back up to the latest safety standards? Can the supply of fuel rods be secured? Do we still have enough engineers who are familiar with the technology? If this assessment is positive, there is a lot to be said for keeping the operational nuclear power plants on the grid for longer.

About the person
Ralf Fücks
The 70-year-old German is managing partner of the Center for Liberal Modernity, a Berlin-based think tank he founded in 2017 with his wife, Marieluise Beck. Beck and Fücks are both members of the Green Party, where they are categorized as belonging to the realpolitik wing. From 1991 to 1995, Fücks was a member of the Bremen state government as senator for urban development and environmental protection; from 1997 to 2017, he was a board member at the Heinrich Böll Foundation, which is close to his party. The declared goal of the Center for Liberal Modernity is to defend "the rule of law, personal freedom, political pluralism and cultural diversity.


Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (http://www.DeepL.com/Translator) (free version)

[Skybird]

Deutsche Welle:


Not all lost territory will be retaken by military means, Zelenskyy says

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the situation was "indescribably difficult" in the country's east, where Russian forces are making gains (https://beta.dw.com/en/russias-invasion-of-ukraine/t-60931789).
"The situation is very complicated, especially in those areas in the Donbas and Kharkiv region, where the Russian army is trying to squeeze at least some result for themselves," Zelenskyy said in his Saturday video address.
Russian forces stepped up their assault on Severodonetsk on Saturday after claiming to have captured the nearby rail hub of Lyman.
"But our defenses are holding up. It's indescribably difficult there," Zelenskyy said
The Ukrainian leader also said he didn't believe all the land seized by Russia since 2014, which includes Crimea, could be recaptured by force.
"I do not believe that we can restore all of our territory by military means. If we decide to go that way, we will lose hundreds of thousands of people," he said.
He was, however, adamant that "Ukraine will get everything back. Everything."

[Jimbuna]

The Luhansk governor Serhiy Haidai says civilians have been killed in Severodonetsk, with buildings destroyed in the key eastern city.

President Zelensky has admitted the situation on the front line in Donbas and parts of Kharkiv region is "indescribably difficult" for the Ukrainian army.

Russia’s ambassador to the UK has told the BBC he does not believe his country will use tactical nuclear weapons in the war against Ukraine.

Andrei Kelin also denied Russian forces were shelling civilians, and said allegations of war crimes in the town of Bucha were a "fabrication"

Meanwhile, heavy fighting is continuing near Severodonetsk in Luhansk Region, the General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed forces said.

The update also claims hospitals in annexed Crimea are suspending the admission of civilians to free up beds for wounded Russian soldiers.

[Jimbuna]

Russia claims to have killed 300 Ukrainian soldiers in last 24 hours
As we reported earlier, Russia's defence ministry says its missiles have destroyed a large arsenal of Ukrainian army weapons in Kryvyi Rih - the home city of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

Now we can bring you more details. Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov claims in the last 24 hours more than 300 "nationalists" [Ukrainian soldiers] have been killed.

He also claims a number of other Ukrainian military targets were hit in the offensive, including a Russian defence systems shooting down a Ukrainian SU-25 fighter jet in Dnipro.

He says: "In total, as a result of Russian air strikes, more than 300 nationalists and up to 50 units of military and special equipment of the armed forces of Ukraine were destroyed."

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mzoe5CZyvAc

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bUfSuAJkLgU

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Ium_AcVq2g

[Jimbuna]

Putin 'given two or three years to live' and is 'losing his eyesight'

Russian president Vladimir Putin has apparently been given a maximum of three years to live by doctors.

A number of unconfirmed reports in recent weeks have suggested the 69-year-old president’s health has been deteriorating quickly.

And now an officer from the Federal Security Service (FSB) of Russia has claimed Putin ‘has no more than two to three years to stay alive’ due to ‘a severe form of rapidly progressing cancer’.

Messages apparently seen by FSB defector Boris Karpichkov from an unidentified Russian spy also claim Putin is losing his sight and suffering from headaches.

The Russian officer told The Sunday Mirror: ‘We are told he is suffering from headaches and when he appears on TV he needs pieces of paper with everything written in huge letters to read what he’s going to say.

‘They are so big each page can only hold a couple of sentences. His eyesight is seriously worsening.’

The spy also said Putin’s limbs are ‘now also shaking uncontrollably’.

It has recently been claimed Putin may be forced to hand over control of Russia as he disappears to have cancer surgery, according to an insider.

The president allegedly already delayed the operation which was scheduled for the second half of April, but it is apparently set to happen ‘in the near future’.

Footage from earlier this year appeared to show his hand ‘shaking uncontrollably’, while he also appeared to grip a table for support.

Oscar-winning film director Oliver Stone, who spent two years shadowing Putin, claims the president had cancer but thinks he has overcome it.

But a Russian oligarch with close ties to the Kremlin recently reportedly confessed to a Western colleague Putin is ‘very ill with blood cancer’ in a secret recording.

The billionaire, whose name has been withheld for his safety, was allegedly secretly taped in mid-March expressing his contempt for the ‘crazy’ Russian president’s invasion of Ukraine.

In the recording, obtained by New Lines Magazine, he said: ‘[Putin] absolutely ruined Russia’s economy, Ukraine’s economy and many other economies — ruined [them] absolutely.

‘The problem is with his head… One crazy guy can turn the world upside down.’

Speculation over the nature of his possible illnesses has varied from Parkinson’s disease to cancer of the thyroid, a gland in the neck that controls heart rate and body temperature.

Paranoia, impulsive behaviour and delusions are known symptoms in patients with advanced Parkinson’s.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/putin-given-two-or-three-years-to-live-and-is-losing-his-eyesight/ar-AAXSCb1?ocid=mailsignout&li=AAnZ9Ug

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cBEbykecqRk

[Cybermat47]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cBEbykecqRk

AFAIK those lawmakers were members of the communist party.

Ironically, some of the most vocal western supporters of Putin are pro-Stalin and pro-CCP communists, AKA 'tankies'.

Having interacted with tankies, I can guarantee that they'll continue to support Putin and accuse these lawmakers of being CIA agents :doh:

[Jimbuna]

Fighting in the Ukrainian city of Severodonetsk is "very fierce" and the "situation is very difficult", the regional governor says.

Russian troops are advancing after entering the outskirts of the key eastern city, according to Serhiy Haidai.

Severodonetsk is a key Russian objective as part of its goal of capturing all of the eastern Luhansk region, but Ukrainian forces are mounting stiff resistance.

Moscow says its top priority is eventually to take all of the Donbas - a former industrial region made up of Luhansk and another area called Donetsk.

EU leaders will meet later to discuss a total ban on Russian oil imports, but Hungary's opposition remains a likely obstacle.

Ukraine's president will address the EU summit and push for new sanctions against Russia.

[Skybird]

The war is going well for Putin at the moment, for almost 2 weeks. The sanctions don't bother him, the losses also not, the army knocks everything down and reaches locally numerical superiority of 7:1 to 11:1, I read. The advance is slow but steady.

The Russians have obviously learned their lesson. Unfortunately.

But whether that translates into "war success" in the long run remains to be seen. After all, what territory and cities they conquer, they must then be able to hold, against Ukrainians who resort to asymmetric warfare and partisan warfare.

The narrative, according to which the advantages slowly shift back in favor of Ukraine the longer the war lasts, because they are getting more and more fire supeirority, I also do not believe uncritical, because this requires the delivery of heavy weapons, fast and steadily. The USA may stay involved - but Europe? France, Germany? Deutschland has not delivered anything at all for 10 weeks, not even light weapons. Paris and Berlin seem willing to accept a Russian dictatorial peace. They could betray Ukraine by forcing it to sign one through lack of arms deliveries - for lack of ammunition and weapons. Hopefully, Washington will steer against that. And hopefully the war will be over before there is the next presidential election in the uSA. And these start already a year before the election date, paralysing policy-making significantly.

It is once again a sad fact: without America, nothing works. An indictment of the Europeans.

But even if Ukraine "wins" in the end, it will have to deal with a destroyed industrial structure in the east and severe damage in countless cities and throughout the country. How this will continue, I dare not predict. The global economic and financial environment is deteriorating rapidly and drastically. The ukraine can maybe win - and still lose.

There is one winner. And that is surprisngly neither China, nor Russia - but America. China is stumbling, tackled by its superman Xi and his stubborn totalitarianism, covid lockdowns and lurching economy, its not material but verbal support for Russia and its aggressiveness in Asia, which leads to a strengthening of resistance in the region, giving China visibly problems, which a year or two ago no one wanted to suspect. Russia has prevented the modernization of its economy for more decades to come, is a pariah, ultimately abandoned by China, which only pays lip confessions. Europe - has left itself behind. The U.S., on the other hand, is once again pushing its global dominance, economically, diplomatically, militarily, even financially. It is unbelievable! And in this environment: good.

A German analyst in an editorial this morning interpreted the massive Russian numerical superiority in the Donbass battles as a sign of military weakness, and I think he is right. He argued that a ratio of 3:1 to 4:1 is expected for successful offensives, and that if the Russians are now massing 7:1 to 11:1, it probably means that they estimate the combat strength of their units to be so low that this enormous over-massing of forces is needed to compensate. Given the terroitorial challenges Russia faces elsewhere in its empire, the huge loss of prestige and the obvious combat weakness of the Russian army is another long-term problem that could cause Russia headaches in the future. If others no longer take you seriously, how can you deter them from challenging you?

[Reece]

Good news about Putin's health!! :Kaleun_Applaud:

[Skybird]

Good news about Putin's health!! :Kaleun_Applaud:
In one way. In another way it means we are not dealing with a rationally thinking man, but an irrational paranoid with plenty of weapons. We should not wish for him being ill, but we should wish for him simply dropping dead right now, right in place. Maybe the FSB arranges some surprise during the next surgery.

[Skybird]

There are reports mounting that seem to show that the White House is apparently very positive about delivering MRSL batteries, though with ammunitions of shorter ranges of only 70km, not the longest range ammo with over 300km - a safeguard against the Ukraine striking deep into Russian territory.

I think every russian convoy on Russian soil heading for the ukraine and every Russian base on Russian soil supporting the logistics for the Ukraine war are valid targets for Ukraine.

Russia started to play with fire, so it should get its fingers burnt. Its fingers, not just the fingers of the other.

70 km is nice, but it puts the batteries more at risk than 300km. It means the units must travel more and longer before reaching firing positions, and that gives Russian intel/recce more time to track the movement. Once fired, it of course plays no role, since then the unit's missile arcs got detected by radar and the paltforms must bug out ASAP, means: fast. These platforms will be top priority targets for the Russians, they will want to track them down and take them out at all cost.

[Dargo]

The Russian company Gazprom will stop supplying gas to the Netherlands after today. This is reported by gas trader Gasterra, which is owned by Shell, Esso Nederland and the Dutch state.

Gasterra does not want to comment on the payment demands of Gazprom. These are a result of a decree drawn up by Russian President Putin on payment in rubles. As a result, the Dutch company will not be supplied with 2.0 billion m3 of gas in the period May 31 (tomorrow) to September 30, 2022. The company says it has anticipated this by purchasing gas elsewhere.

Gasterra gives two reasons for not meeting the payment demands. By paying in rubles, the company would violate EU sanctions against Russia. In addition, it would have to open bank accounts in Moscow. These are governed by Russian law, which would be too great a risk, according to Gasterra.

[Jimbuna]

So, as of today, which EU countries are paying in Roubles and have therefore opened a Russian bank account?

[Dargo]

So, as of today, which EU countries are paying in Roubles and have therefore opened a Russian bank account?
That depends on when their gas contract needs to be renewed, and you now see only the smaller importers getting cut off, do not think Putin wants to kill the golden goose.

[Jimbuna]

I was under the impression all contracts had been terminated and would only be renewed on Putins terms.

[Dargo]

I was under the impression all contracts had been terminated and would only be renewed on Putins terms.He could have said it like that, but Gazprom acts differently.

[Jimbuna]

He could have said it like that, but Gazprom acts differently.

I was under the impression everyone and everything in Russia does as Putin instructs them.

[Dargo]

The war is going well for Putin at the moment, for almost 2 weeks. The sanctions don't bother him, the losses also not, the army knocks everything down and reaches locally numerical superiority of 7:1 to 11:1, I read. The advance is slow but steady.

The Russians have obviously learned their lesson. Unfortunately.

But whether that translates into "war success" in the long run remains to be seen. After all, what territory and cities they conquer, they must then be able to hold, against Ukrainians who resort to asymmetric warfare and partisan warfare.

The narrative, according to which the advantages slowly shift back in favor of Ukraine the longer the war lasts, because they are getting more and more fire supeirority, I also do not believe uncritical, because this requires the delivery of heavy weapons, fast and steadily. The USA may stay involved - but Europe? France, Germany? Deutschland has not delivered anything at all for 10 weeks, not even light weapons. Paris and Berlin seem willing to accept a Russian dictatorial peace. They could betray Ukraine by forcing it to sign one through lack of arms deliveries - for lack of ammunition and weapons. Hopefully, Washington will steer against that. And hopefully the war will be over before there is the next presidential election in the uSA. And these start already a year before the election date, paralysing policy-making significantly.

It is once again a sad fact: without America, nothing works. An indictment of the Europeans.

But even if Ukraine "wins" in the end, it will have to deal with a destroyed industrial structure in the east and severe damage in countless cities and throughout the country. How this will continue, I dare not predict. The global economic and financial environment is deteriorating rapidly and drastically. The ukraine can maybe win - and still lose.

There is one winner. And that is surprisngly neither China, nor Russia - but America. China is stumbling, tackled by its superman Xi and his stubborn totalitarianism, covid lockdowns and lurching economy, its not material but verbal support for Russia and its aggressiveness in Asia, which leads to a strengthening of resistance in the region, giving China visibly problems, which a year or two ago no one wanted to suspect. Russia has prevented the modernization of its economy for more decades to come, is a pariah, ultimately abandoned by China, which only pays lip confessions. Europe - has left itself behind. The U.S., on the other hand, is once again pushing its global dominance, economically, diplomatically, militarily, even financially. It is unbelievable! And in this environment: good.

A German analyst in an editorial this morning interpreted the massive Russian numerical superiority in the Donbass battles as a sign of military weakness, and I think he is right. He argued that a ratio of 3:1 to 4:1 is expected for successful offensives, and that if the Russians are now massing 7:1 to 11:1, it probably means that they estimate the combat strength of their units to be so low that this enormous over-massing of forces is needed to compensate. Given the terroitorial challenges Russia faces elsewhere in its empire, the huge loss of prestige and the obvious combat weakness of the Russian army is another long-term problem that could cause Russia headaches in the future. If others no longer take you seriously, how can you deter them from challenging you? The advance is slow but steady yes, but it is 1.5 mile on a good day the Donbas is large very large will take months to conquer the Donbas. That time, Russia does not have troops fighting now need to rest at one time if they can not replace it will halt the offensive even if they take Severodonetsk and can advance further west they gone fight an Ukraine army on higher ground that will slow them cause more casualties and longer supply lines. Some stronger claims that have the Ukrainian counteroffensive near Kherson showing results. Maybe the Russians throwing everything at the Donbas was not the wisest.

[mapuc]

Heard in the news earlier today about some Russian soldiers had committed mutiny in Ukraine-Did not get where it was and how many soldiers who had committed mutiny.

Markus

[Skybird]

Orsted/Denmark could be next.
Severla suthern nations pay in roubles, and even bragged about it. Italy, Greece amongst them.
Its a clear violation of EU sanctions as specified.
The EU does - nothing so far. And consequences are not being mulled, it seems.
Could be that Russia waits for the next winter - and then cuts off the supply. The reserves in Europe then might be filled up more or less, but they do not last that long (2.5 months in case of Germany, and only when the winter is not especially cold, and Germany is amongst the better euqipped nations regarding gas reserve storage sites) and the EU will find it hard to replace these losses then with demand climbing and time running out.
Next winter will become very interesting, also due to the energy policy in germany.

[Dargo]

Heard in the news earlier today about some Russian soldiers had committed mutiny in Ukraine-Did not get where it was and how many soldiers who had committed mutiny.

MarkusReports in Kherson of Russians panicking and abandoning their positions, in some areas near the frontline. Ukraine's southern offensive in the Kherson region continues to show results and prove Russia's ill-disciplined forces don't like defending. Today, Russian troops withdrew from the village of Mykolaivka, which led to panic among other Russian units in the area. Ukraine's General Staff reports that they have seized Mykolaivka in Kherson oblast, which is located on the northern shore of Dnipro, 70 km | 43,496 mile East of Kherson. This would mean that the Ukrainian army has cut off the supply line to Kherson from Donbas.

[mapuc]

Orsted/Denmark could be next.
Severla suthern nations pay in roubles, and even bragged about it. Italy, Greece amongst them.
Its a clear violation of EU sanctions as specified.
The EU does - nothing so far. And consequences are not being mulled, it seems.
Could be that Russia waits for the next winter - and then cuts off the supply. The reserves in Europe then might be filled up more or less, but they do not last that long (2.5 months in case of Germany, and only when the winter is not especially cold, and Germany is amongst the better euqipped nations regarding gas reserve storage sites) and the EU will find it hard to replace these losses then with demand climbing and time running out.
Next winter will become very interesting, also due to the energy policy in germany.

Next winter Denmark will have their Tyra field up and running-There's enough gas and oil in that field so Denmark kan support them self and even sell to other countries.

The reason to why Denmark shut it down some years ago, was that gas was cheaper from Russia.

Markus

[Skybird]

Happy Danes!
You could sell not only gas, but also sell your candles. When I was a schoolboy, we once were on summer holiday in Denmark (island Mohn), and bought plenty of those beautifully huge candles. For some reason, Germans are crazy for these. So were we. :)

[mapuc]

Happy Danes!
You could sell not only gas, but also sell your candles. When I was a schoolboy, we once were on summer holiday in Denmark (island Mohn), and bought plenty of those beautifully huge candles. For some reason, Germans are crazy for these. So were we. :)

Hmm doesn't Germany have their own oil field made a search and I found this page

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mittelplate

I don't know if it is possible to increase to production from what it is now

Markus

[tmccarthy]

He is right. Imagine that Ukraine had joined US/NATO, would there have been a war between US/NATO ever in the future? 5 years from now, 10 years or 20 years from now? Where would that war be fought... in Russia. Putin is saying no, the war will be fought now and it will be fought on Ukraine territory. I don't think Russia is going to lose fighting a war on its own territory ever again, if Russia loses it's going to be in a nuclear war and who will survive to be the winner? Joe Biden, Lindsey Graham, Antony Blinken, Victoria Nuland, Paul Wolfowitz...Boris Johnson?

If anyone wants a war with Russia or has a reason for war with Russia fine and good luck. (keeping in mind that the people in Washington D.C. are about the greediest and stupidest people on the planet.)

The corporate media's hand in this is obvious as they have labeled it "Putin's War." and highlight every action by Russia in the last decade as evil and never acknowledge US actions that preceded them that were provocative or even illegal. The west has taken steps toward war for 30 years to get here before the world had ever heard the name, Putin. Washington wants a war with Russia (and China) because it wants to control the world, sell weapons, control oil resources, and refuses to accept not being the only superpower in the world (if I'm saying something that is obvious sorry). In 10 years Putin will be dead and when the war came 2032 would the media still be calling it "Putins War"?

"Our first objective is to prevent the re-emergence of a new rival, either on the territory of the former Soviet Union or elsewhere, that poses a threat on the order of that posed formerly by the Soviet Union." - Paul Wolfowitz, The Wolfowitz Doctrine 1992

-Tim


https://youtu.be/ZM8LOmDiLrs

[tmccarthy]

US intentions in the Crimea,

U.S. NAVAL DIPLOMACY IN THE BLACK SEA (2007)
https://www.jstor.org/stable/26396849?seq=1

US plan to control energy thru Ukraine thwarted by Nord Stream end-run, Germany and a German engineering company built it?

Joe Biden opposes Russian-German Nord Stream 2 pipeline | DW News (2020)
https://youtu.be/npnqK3BSkBw

Nord Stream 2 pipeline 'dangerous geopolitical weapon' said Ukraine(2021)
https://youtu.be/CYFXgmnThKU

[Catfish]

RT (dis)information and maskirovka.
[...] Imagine that Ukraine had joined US/NATO, would there have been a war between US/NATO ever in the future? 5 years from now, 10 years or 20 years from now? [..]
Of course not. Russia would not have taken Crimea, and it would not have dared to attack Ukraine. Same as if Ukraine would have kept its own nuclear weapons instead of giving them to Russia.

I don't think letting oneself being blackmailed by Putin will lead to peace.
Should better speak about the next russian leader. Maybe this Kadyrov tiktok poser, seems he's a real nice guy.

[Skybird]

Maybe this Kadyrov


Not sufficient anchors in the Kremlin circles.

[Skybird]

An agreement ha sbeen reached in Germany on that 100bn bonus budget for the Bundeswehr, and it has been watered down exactly as I feared and predicted. The money is no longer meant additional to a yearly 2% budget for defence, but it will be used only to boost the existing lower budget to 2%, and will be eaten up in 5 years. Also they implemented backdoors for escape routes away from those 2% every year. Zeitenwende...? Not for me, "turning points in history" look differently.



It has become known that industry and Bundeswehr both could deliver much more Marders than was indicated by pro-government circles - and many of them immediately, the industry has ijn parts readied them already. It is obvious that there is a clear prohibition by the chancellor. I would even question that even functional (loaded) Gepards and PZH2000 ever will be delivered. I believe it when I see it - and I not hold my breath for it any longer. Honestely said i think Bubble-Olaf is rightout lying to the German public, the Ukraine, and the international community. Deliberately, intentionally. He lies, plain and simpe.



You dont really need enemies when you have "friends" like Germany. On the last summit it showed that Germany is fully isolated and attracts growing anger internationally. Needless to say, when there is talk of safety guarantors after the war, Germany cannot be one of these. It has neither the muscle nor the will to fill such guarantees with any life and value. Nor does it have the honesty. It only wants to benefit from the prestige posing as such a guarantor. :03: It may do in money, but not in military. But money transfers and economic ties bring no securty form military attacks. For that you need weapons, and the willingness to fight.



Time is playing for Putin's diplomatic calculation, the cracks in the EU's initial unity against Russia can no longer be denied, and they will widen with every week the war continues and summer passes by. Depüendencies form certain Russian exports will prevail for long time to come. Longer than they now are willing to admit in Brussels or Berlin. Oil. Nuclear fuel, ores, fertilizers. Also, while quite some wetsenr companies leave Russia, there are still many companies who still refuse to leave the Russian market.



One also wonders what Macronman and Bubble-Olaf ware talking about with Putin for almost one and a half hour...?


Yesterday I said a winner of all this is the USA. There seems to be another one, an emerging one, and that is Poland, whose reputation and influence especially in Easterneuropean countries is widening, it becomes the clear leading power of the Eastern countries and becomes more and more a pressing force in NATO as well. Germany, on the other hand, is loosing both prestige and influence, and tremendously and fast.

[Skybird]

Are there really only morons, fantasists and idiots left in Russian politics? There must be, otherwise this war would not have been possible.

A senior Russian MP has proposed kidnapping a defense minister from a NATO state in Ukraine and bringing him to Moscow to question him about the "orders" the West is giving to Kiev. Oleg Morozov, who is a member of the dominant United Russia party, said the West's arms deliveries to Ukraine posed a direct threat to Russia and could force Moscow to rethink its military goals.

"You know, maybe it's a fantastic plan I have that in the near future, at some point, a war minister of a NATO country will travel by train to Kiev to speak to Selensky," Morozov told the talk show "60 Minutes" on state television channel Rossia-1 late Monday. "But he would not arrive. And would wake up somewhere in Moscow Moscow," Morozov said. "You mean we would kidnap them?" TV host Olga Skabeyeva then asked. "Yes. And then we would find out who gave what order," Morozov said. "It's not such a mythical picture ... There are new rules in the world now. May all the war ministers who gather in Kiev think a little bit about that, think a little bit about what it would be like to wake up in Moscow."
(NZZ)

Said TV host Olga Skabeyeva recently shone with the announcement that one must set about "denazifying" not only Ukraine, but also "demilitarizing" all of NATO.


:k_rofl:
Russians - watch less gangster movies, they do your mental health no good, apparently. ;)

[Jimbuna]

An agreement ha sbeen reached in Germany on that 100bn bonus budget for the Bundeswehr, and it has been watered down exactly as I feared and predicted. The money is no longer meant additional to a yearly 2% budget for defence, but it will be used only to boost the existing lower budget to 2%, and will be eaten up in 5 years. Also they implemented backdoors for escape routes away from those 2% every year. Zeitenwende...? Not for me, "turning points in history" look differently.



It has become known that industry and Bundeswehr both could deliver much more Marders than was indicated by pro-government circles - and many of them immediately, the industry has ijn parts readied them already. It is obvious that there is a clear prohibition by the chancellor. I would even question that even functional (loaded) Gepards and PZH2000 ever will be delivered. I believe it when I see it - and I not hold my breath for it any longer. Honestely said i think Bubble-Olaf is rightout lying to the German public, the Ukraine, and the international community. Deliberately, intentionally. He lies, plain and simpe.



You dont really need enemies when you have "friends" like Germany. On the last summit it showed that Germany is fully isolated and attracts growing anger internationally. Needless to say, when there is talk of safety guarantors after the war, Germany cannot be one of these. It has neither the muscle nor the will to fill such guarantees with any life and value. Nor does it have the honesty. It only wants to benefit from the prestige posing as such a guarantor. :03: It may do in money, but not in military. But money transfers and economic ties bring no securty form military attacks. For that you need weapons, and the willingness to fight.



Time is playing for Putin's diplomatic calculation, the cracks in the EU's initial unity against Russia can no longer be denied, and they will widen with every week the war continues and summer passes by. Depüendencies form certain Russian exports will prevail for long time to come. Longer than they now are willing to admit in Brussels or Berlin. Oil. Nuclear fuel, ores, fertilizers. Also, while quite some wetsenr companies leave Russia, there are still many companies who still refuse to leave the Russian market.



One also wonders what Macronman and Bubble-Olaf ware talking about with Putin for almost one and a half hour...?


Yesterday I said a winner of all this is the USA. There seems to be another one, an emerging one, and that is Poland, whose reputation and influence especially in Easterneuropean countries is widening, it becomes the clear leading power of the Eastern countries and becomes more and more a pressing force in NATO as well. Germany, on the other hand, is loosing both prestige and influence, and tremendously and fast.

Most enlightening :salute:

[Jimbuna]

The head of the key eastern city of Severodonetsk says the front line has cut the city in half.

But Oleksandr Stryuk says Ukraine is holding out and still defending its positions there.

The area's regional governor says the situation is grave after Russians entered the city.

The entire region is under continuous bombardment, Serhiy Haidai says.

Moscow now occupies almost all of the Luhansk region, which it recognised as independent before the invasion in February.

European Union leaders are holding a second day of talks, having agreed on a plan to cut Russian oil imports yesterday.

Russia has stopped supplying gas to the Netherlands after Dutch energy firm GasTerra refused to pay in roubles.

[Catfish]

One should not forget to have a look at Olaf Scholz' past, as well as Merkel's.
Before 1989.

Meanwhile Georgia's Breakaway Region Ditches Referendum on Joining Russia:

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/05/31/georgias-breakaway-region-ditches-referendum-on-joining-russia-a77843

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JFdFeiAzhv4

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qcgHGZN22OU

[Skybird]

Orsted and Shell will not get gas from Gazprom anymore. From tomorrow on.


And while life gets more difficult for EU customers' economies and citizens, Russia signs a 290 bn dollar deal with China, Serbia boasts with having gotten an "extremely cheap" gas deal, and India and Pakistan signal their willigness to massively boost their relations with Russia regardign energy.

[Dargo]

Germany will supply Greece with infantry fighting vehicles. This will allow Greece to supply Soviet era equipment to Ukraine.

[Dargo]

Shell and Denmark's Ørsted will also not receive Russian gas from tomorrow. Both companies refuse to pay their bills to Gazprom in rubles. In the case of Shell, this concerns 1.2 billion cubic meters of gas per year that would be delivered to customers in Germany, Gazprom reports. At Ørsted it is about 1.9 billion cubic meters of gas per year, about 80 percent of all imports into Denmark.

In a response, Shell let it be known that it would continue to supply gas from other sources to its European customers. The company was already scaling back its purchases of Russian oil and gas and will continue to do so. Ørsted already saw the picture yesterday, when the Dutch gas trader GasTerra announced that Gazprom would turn off the gas tap.

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_X4SLzLmrHM

[Dargo]

Air Serbia's Airbus A320 cannot fly out of Moscow airport. It needs one of its details to be replaced. But Moscow airport has no more Airbus spare parts, because Airbus earlier suspended supplying its parts to Russia. :)

[Skybird]

Germany will supply Greece with infantry fighting vehicles. This will allow Greece to supply Soviet era equipment to Ukraine.
Ah wait, thats what the German Polish deal also was about. ;)

It was very - one-sided... :D

[Jimbuna]

Ah wait, thats what the German Polish deal also was about. ;)

It was very - one-sided... :D

Olaf playing his silly games again.

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kbIdRlfOqjE

[Bilge_Rat]

hard to see what the western strategy is at this point. None of their assumptions seem to have worked out:

1. Russia's economy did not collapse due to sanctions;
2. Putin has not been overthrown;
3. The Russian army did not collapse;

In fact, the Russians are slowly grinding forward gaining territory every day.

Hard to see how the Ukrainians achieve victory.

The only realistic outcome at this point as far as I can see is a negotiated ceasefire where the Ukrainians will have to trade land for peace.

Of course that will only happen once the US stops propping up the UKR govt and pushes for a settlement. I wonder how many more billions of dollars uncle Joe is willing to pour into this. We are at what $ 54 billions and counting?

[Dargo]

With the Russian army making some gains in the east in recent weeks, albeit incremental ones, commentators are asking whether — or even claiming — President Putin’s forces have changed the course of the war and are now on track to “win”.

Victory in this war is always going to be hard to establish because, whatever happens, it will have to end in a negotiated peace of some sort. It has become apparent in the past three months that Russia cannot hope to conquer all of Ukraine. And, as Ukraine cannot conquer Russia, a settlement between the two sides is the only option. This needs to be emphasised because it points to one reality: Ukraine has already won in one key respect. It will survive as an independent state, with the vast majority of its territory, a strong and reinforced national identity and, it should be hoped, eventual membership of the European Union. If this had been a result offered on February 24, it would have been seen as a convincing triumph for Ukraine.

We are therefore left to discuss whether Russia can achieve some goals from a war that Putin has already lost. And those goals are generally regarded as the Russian annexation of about 20 per cent of Ukraine’s territory, the large hook-shaped swath of land they now occupy from just below Kharkiv, down to Mariupol and over to Kherson. This is a more difficult victory to judge, because such an annexation will only result after a long, bloody war that will last many more months and possibly years.

Unless the Ukrainian government decides in the short term to throw away this part of the country to get a peace deal, the war will go on. The big question will be not what Russia holds today, but what it can hold in the future — and they may discover that holding is not as easy as taking. What the Russians are doing now is devoting a massive amount of their available military resources to take a very small area. They may take it (or they may not) but at the end of the day they have already suffered huge losses.

The Ukrainians, meanwhile, have undoubtedly suffered as well, but are in the process of being reinforced by better, often Nato-standard equipment than they had on February 24. In a few weeks they will be considerably more effective, particularly in ranged weaponry, than they were when the war started, while the Russian army, which is already starting to scrape the bottom of the barrel by deploying 50-year-old tanks and armored personnel carriers to Ukraine, will be weaker. Maybe the Russians can hold all that territory against Ukrainian attacks — but, more than likely, they will have real struggles trying to control a large, unwieldy piece of territory with what is now a shrinking military force.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/who-will-be-the-victor-ukraine-or-russia-gjf7gzj3f

[Dargo]

hard to see what the western strategy is at this point. None of their assumptions seem to have worked out:

1. Russia's economy did not collapse due to sanctions;
2. Putin has not been overthrown;
3. The Russian army did not collapse;

In fact, the Russians are slowly grinding forward gaining territory every day.

Hard to see how the Ukrainians achieve victory.

The only realistic outcome at this point as far as I can see is a negotiated ceasefire where the Ukrainians will have to trade land for peace.

Of course that will only happen once the US stops propping up the UKR govt and pushes for a settlement. I wonder how many more billions of dollars uncle Joe is willing to pour into this. We are at what $ 54 billions and counting?

Grinding forward, gaining territory at a huge cost of life and material Russian army is not collapsed, but they are in a very bad state not able to keep up this offensive for a long time as Putin does not dare to declare mobilization because it will cause too many internal problems his army is dying unable to control occupied ground in the future.

Those sanctions will have effect in the long time, not in short time and Russian people can survive long time this kinda situations they are used to them. Killing Putin has no use, the authorial kleptocratic system must change, else it is only change of the one dictator for another. Ukrainians achieved victory they have the support of the west that Putin wanted to crush they still have the large size of their country under their control they likely become part of EU Putin invasion has slingshotted Ukraine into arms of the west in 3 days ;) he totally failed the loser

Alexey Navalny:
Well, what do I know? Maybe Putin doesn't hate me, maybe he secretly adores me. That's why he wants me to be hidden in an underground bunker, guarded by reliable people, just like himself. How else can I explain the fact that not even eight days have passed since my 9-year high-security sentence came into force, and today the investigator showed up again and formally charged me with a new case. It turns out that I created an extremist group in order to incite hatred towards officials and oligarchs. And when they put me in jail, I dared to be disgruntled about it (silly me) and called for rallies. For that, they're supposed to add up to 15 more years to my sentence. See, that's another 15 years in a secure stable bunker where I will be sheltered from the surprises and hardships of this "freedom" of yours. Where it's such a mess that the streets are even walked on by ordinary people - not FSO and FSIN officers. My parents came here for a visit, and they live in a small military town. So, of course, we joked that when Putin does start a nuclear war, they will get one of the first missiles. And I'm having the time of my life - who's going to bomb a prison in the middle of a swamp? So when the concrete starts melting out there, I will simply watch a particularly beautiful sunset from the prison yard. Thank Putin for that.

This is one man Putin fears in the meantime resistance is growing the mothers of the KIA Russian soldiers that are vocal against him and the much arson attacks on recruitment offices tells ordinary Russians are not behind his policy

[mapuc]

A short film showing a major explosion in Sloviansk

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y3WdKawZpXE

Markus

[Dargo]

Poland's website Defense 24 reports that #Slovakia's defense minister Jaroslav Naď confirms the transfer of eight 155 mm self-propelled howitzers Zuzana 2 to Ukraine. https://defence24.pl/polityka-obronna/slowacja-przekaze-ukrainie-nowoczesna-artylerie

[Dargo]

Share of Russia’s economy in the global GDP is 1.7% In terms of GDP, in 2023 Russia will be smaller than Spain and only a bit bigger than the Netherlands. The Netherlands! Have you seen the size of the Netherlands? :D

[mapuc]

Share of Russia’s economy in the global GDP is 1.7% In terms of GDP, in 2023 Russia will be smaller than Spain and only a bit bigger than the Netherlands. The Netherlands! Have you seen the size of the Netherlands? :D

An off topic answer to Dargo
When it comes to its beauty it's huge I wish I could afford another trip to Holland.

End of an off topic answer to Dargo

Markus

[Dargo]

A Brutal Examination: Russian Military Capability in Light of Ukraine War

Russian armed forces’ lacklustre performance in Ukraine has surprised military analysts. Shortcomings have included breakdowns in logistics, poor equipment and morale, abysmal communications, and muddled command and control, as well as a weak showing by the Russian Aerospace Forces, air defense, and cruise and ballistic missiles. Chief among the contributing factors are wishful political thinking, overreliance on esoteric doctrine and endemic corruption. War, however, brutally exposes peacetime cheating. Consequently, estimates of Russian military capabilities – in particular, for large-formation combined-arms operations, logistics, air defense and intangibles such as morale – need to be carefully reassessed. Earlier analyses of a Russia–NATO conflict appear to have overstated the challenge of defending Europe. Looking ahead, the conventional threat from Russia seems less daunting than previously thought, and the country faces a formidable task in repairing depleted capabilities. That said, President Vladimir Putin’s appetite for risk is greater than anticipated.

As Russian President Vladimir Putin made an all-in bet on invading Ukraine, most analysts expected Russian forces to be relentlessly effective and campaign plans meticulous, commensurate with the enormous risks the operation inevitably imposed on Russia in theatre and internationally. While the future of Ukraine hinges on the outcome of the war, so do Russia’s standing as an aspiring world power and the political future of Putin himself. But war can be a brutal examination that ruthlessly reveals peacetime cheating. Indications quickly mounted that little was going according to Russian plans, and that the plans, means and measures were not sound... https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00396338.2022.2078044#.YpYRRpkUM6E.twitter

[Dargo]

Governor of Lugansk: Severodonetsk largely in Russian hands

Most of Severodonetsk is in the hands of the Russians, says Serhi Hajdaj, the governor of Lugansk. Nearly 100 percent of the critical infrastructure has been destroyed, he reports on Telegram. 90 percent of homes have been damaged, 60 percent of them so badly that repair is no longer possible. Because of the shelling, it is impossible to deliver relief supplies or evacuate people, Hajdaj said.

He also reports that an airstrike on a chemical plant hit a tank containing nitric acid. Photos show a pink cloud hanging over the city. He urges everyone to stay indoors because of the toxic gases that can cause serious respiratory problems.

[Dargo]

Wall Street Journal: US to provide Ukraine with artillery with over 60 kilometers in range.

The Wall Street Journal reported, citing anonymous sources in the White House, that the precision-guided rocket systems could arrive within weeks, and training on how to use them would take at least 10 days. https://www.wsj.com/articles/guided-u-s-rockets-could-double-ukraines-strike-range-11653989401?mod=Searchresults_pos14&page=1

[mapuc]

Ekstra Bladet wrote:


Officer: Russia wins the war -
'Soldiers used as cannon fodder'
Russia's superior military is winning and Denmark's support is only contributing to more deaths, says former Defence Intelligence Service officer

Although the Russian army has struggled with major teething problems, in the long run they will wear down the Ukrainians so much that they will surrender.

- The war, with its trenches and fixed defensive positions, is more reminiscent of the First World War than the war in Afghanistan. In that situation, artillery and tanks always win over men. And here Russia has the upper hand.

So says Jacob Skaarenborg, a former senior officer in the Defence Intelligence Service for 26 years.

In April, Russia announced it would focus on the eastern Donbas region, which is just a few hours' drive from Russia's border.

At the same time, Ukraine receives weapons from the West at the border with Poland. They have to be transported more than 1000 kilometres, mainly via the country's railway network.

- While the Russians can get new weapons and especially ammunition quickly, the Ukrainians will have to economise on ammunition to avoid running out. This means a significant difference in firepower in the Russians' favour. The party that can inflict the most firepower on its opponent wins.

Russia is deliberately bombing railway lines and bridges to stop the flow of arms and ammunition to Ukraine's forces, Reuters reports.

Ukraine loses motivation
According to Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky, up to 100 Ukrainian soldiers die daily in the war.

This will eventually wear down the soldiers' will to fight, says Jacob Skaarenborg.

- The Russian artillery will cause significant Ukrainian losses at the front, and the Ukrainian soldiers will have no choice but to dig deeper and wait. They will see a lot of artillery coming towards them, and much less going the other way.

Russian soldiers, according to Study of War, a US think tank that researches defence and warfare, are fighting with such a severe lack of fighting spirit that they are drinking large quantities of alcohol and shooting their own vehicles to avoid the front line.

- Ukrainian morale is better than Russian, and that's fine if you're man to man. But with the Russian superiority in heavy weapons, they can be motivated enough without it making a difference, says Jacob Skaarenborg.

NATO involvement would be suicide
Joe Biden calls Ukraine's soldiers heroes, Nato's Jens Stoltenberg admires their courage, and Mette Frederiksen describes Zelenskyj as a 'proud leader of a brave people' on Facebook.

Despite praise, neither has sent troops to fight in Ukraine, just as Nato did not heed Zelenskyj's plea for a no-fly zone.

- If Nato soldiers go to war with Russia, we have trouble. That would mean World War III, the use of tactical nuclear weapons and ultimately the deployment of strategic nuclear weapons. That would be suicide, and that is why it is not happening.

Skaarenborg believes that the West's strategy in supplying weapons to Ukraine is to do so much damage to Russia that they are unable to invade other countries.

- Were a Ukrainian victory assured, it would be a good idea. But it isn't, and instead they end up dying as cannon fodder in our fight against Russia, with no benefit to themselves.

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)


Are we doing more harm than good ? What is he saying between the lines-That we should increase our help to Ukraine or what ?

Markus

[Rockstar]

https://youtu.be/NruZ3AR3Kvo

[Skybird]

As long as they have sufficient cannon fodder to sacrifice, the Russian approach now somewhat "works". Its not elegant, its not subtle, its not precise, it certainly looks not easy-handed, surely not. But it wins by indiscriminatory annihilation of each and everything.



As long as they can maintain it it rounds and bodies.

[Otto Harkaman]

^ 18th century warfare

[Skybird]

Ekstra Bladet wrote:

Are we doing more harm than good ? What is he saying between the lines-That we should increase our help to Ukraine or what ?

Markus
Nobody else than the Ukrainians are to decide whether they fight or surrender. But without their fight, we might be even more in trouble on our nato borders right now, and other countries would be at risk to get attacked by Russia.

So as long as Ukrainians by their own decision continue to fight, we should do our best to cause as much damage and loss on Russia as possible by providing them wepaons and ammo that they need. So that Riussia's appetite for other military adventures in other people's lands gets muted for long time to come.
And we should not try to force Ukraine to accept Russian conditions by not supplying it anymore. My fear is that is what Macronman and Bubble-Olaf prepare to do.

[Skybird]

Biden announces delivery of HIMARS MRLS systems with ammunitions of 70 km in range. This has been long time coming.

Scholz announces to deliveran IRIS-T SL air defence system - and one radar. The Unimog-mounted-system has a maximum range of 35 km and a maximum altitude of 20km. Thats a circle with 70km in diameter at max. Thats around a third to a quarter of the distance between Odessa and Mykolajev. The system is modern and very agile, but for Germany is meant only as a secondary backup system beside a Patriot system with longer reach.


In his govenrment proclamation before the parliament yesterday Bubble-Olaf again rejected to take the words "Ukrainian victory" in his mouth. He has absolutely refused to mention this word combination since as long as this war lasts now. He was pressed on it on several occasions, and strictly weasels away every single time.


"No victory for Ukraine!", that means.

[Skybird]

Comparison between the German two attacks on Kyiv 1942, and the Russian attack 2022.

https://www.nzz.ch/international/kiew-im-krieg-1941-und-2022-ein-militaerhistorischer-vergleich-ld.1682003

Not everybody might be interested, thats why I do not post the whole translated text. You can paste and copy the text yourself and then delete the German sections in the left window when you have red the English translation in the right one (ther eis a 5000 letter limit). The translator I use and recommend is just so much better than Google (which allows to have whole websites translated).

https://www.deepl.com/de/translator

[Skybird]

Germany announces to deliver four missile artillery systems by the end of the month. I missed that news so far. No word on type and range AFAIK.

[Jimbuna]

The US will send Ukraine more advanced rocket systems to help it defend itself, President Biden has announced.

The weapons, long requested by Ukraine, are to help it strike enemy forces more precisely from a longer distance.

Until now, the US had refused the request out of fear the weapons could be used against targets in Russia.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the US was "directly and intentionally adding fuel to the fire" with its weapons deliveries to Ukraine.

Separately, the German government has promised to send an air defence system to Ukraine.

Chancellor Olaf Scholz told MPs that the IRIS-T system was the most modern Germany possessed and would enable Ukraine to defend an entire city against Russian air attacks.

He added that he would provide tracking radar capable of detecting enemy artillery, and multiple rocket launchers.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-61655577

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C9JLBgjugX0

[mapuc]

I just copied the headlines and the small text from this Danish article
(Because rest of the article was about Denmarks contribution to Ukraine)

Warns the West: Fears direct superpower conflict
Russia is getting pretty tired of the massive arms shipments to Ukraine

For me it means these weapon supply have an effect

Markus.

[August]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FUIKLO8WUAAoXjb?format=jpg&name=4096x4096

https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/1531802118155296771?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5 Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1531802118155296771%7Ctwgr% 5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=

[Skybird]

That did not last long... German government already has relativised its announcements again.


Foreign minister Baerbock gets quoted with her speech in the parliament were she pointed out that the announced deliveries of MARS-2 missile batteries and IRIS-T air defences "will take time" and actually are several months away.



In the same parliamentary debate, Bubble-Olaf accused the leader of the opposition, Friedrich Merz, "to make plenty of words while saying nothing". Oh the involuntary irony... :haha:

[Skybird]

Russia takes over Severodonetsk, the Ukrainian brigade that defended there withdraws.


This sounds like a Russian victory, but possibly it only sounds that way. The Russians had to expend enormous numerical forces to achieve this, which demonstrates the poor fighting ability of the Russian formations. Accordingly, many of the participating formations are now exhausted. The withdrawal of the Ukrainians is in fact also a defeat of the Russians, because their goal should have been to encircle and destroy the Urkainian formations. This did not succeed. The tactical withdrawal of the Ukrainians allowed them to shorten the front and at the same time free up forces that can now support counterattacks elsewhere, while the Russians had to withdraw large forces from there to support the advance on Severodonetsk. Stratgeically, the city is not even that important to Ukraine. The fact that they were able to successfully repatriate some of their most experienced and strongest fighting units before the Russians could wipe them out, and by then they were able to really get on the Russians' nerves and thin them out further - that may weigh more heavily.


Counterattack elsewhere and faster than the Russians can regroup, would be the motto now. I would not be surprised to see something like that happen in the near future. And one thing has become clear: the Russians still run their formations according to slow, clumsy Soviet doctrine - the Ukrainians have long since left this doctrine behind and operate with priority on mobility, agility and speed, following NATO standards. So they have advantages when it comes to moving forces out of Severodonetsk and deploying them elsewhere. They will be able to do that faster than the Russians.

[mapuc]

Russia is accusing USA for "Adding fuel to the fire" by sending these long range rockets to Ukraine.

Well who started this huge fire ??

Markus

[Skybird]

Russia is accusing USA for "Adding fuel to the fire" by sending these long range rockets to Ukraine.

Well who started this huge fire ??

Markus
Germany. We sent them campfirelighters from Bundeswehr stocks early on, together with those now infamous helmets.

[Jimbuna]

Russia's army is trying to break Ukraine's defence in the eastern region from all directions, Luhansk leader Serhiy Haidai says.

Fighting is raging in the key city of Severodonetsk, which is now largely under the control of Russian troops.

Taking Severodonetsk would mean Russia controls almost all of Luhansk, in the eastern Donbas region.

On Wednesday Russia criticised US plans to send more advanced artillery systems to Ukraine, accusing Washington of "adding fuel to the fire"

President Joe Biden said the goal was to help Ukraine defend itself and Ukraine's President Zelensky said he had "no intention" of attacking Russia.

Ukraine's football team beat Scotland in Glasgow and will now play Wales for a place in the World Cup in Qatar.

The match had been originally planned for March but was postponed after Russia's invasion of the country.

[Jimbuna]

EU ban on Russian oil imports 'self-destructive' - Russia

Russia has warned that the EU's decision to partially phase out Russian oilis a "self-destructive" step that could backfire on the bloc.

On Monday, EU member states said 90% of oil imports would be cut by the end of this year, as part of further sanctions to punish Moscow for invading Ukraine.

But Russia's foreign ministry says the move is "highly likely to provoke further price increases, destabilise energy markets, and disrupt supply chains".

Moscow has also insisted it will not sell its oil at a loss. At a press briefing, the Kremlin said even if demand fell in one part of the world, it would increase in another - and Russian flows would be redirected accordingly.

Oil purchases from Russia by India - the world's third-largest consumer of oil - have more than doubled from last year, as India takes advantage of discounted prices.

However, European Council chief Charles Michel argues the EU-wide ban will cut off a huge source of financing for the Russian war machine, putting pressure on Moscow to agree a diplomatic solution and bring the invasion to an end.

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6VyZXOzi0EM

[Skybird]

The way they implement this "embargo" indeed is made to backfire. When a product, good, commodity becomne srare, prices go u. They annoucned they will increased the shortage in energy in 7 months form now on, additonal to the very serious monetarian and economic crisis we already are i. The prices will go up steeply, i have little doubt.



And Putin's best man in Europe, Orban, already tries to torpedoe the slow compromise the eU reached with him just recently by now putting it in doubt again if he does not get another detail he demands, that is that there shall be no sanctiuonsing of Russia's religious war propagandist Kyrill.



Time is working for Russia here, the cracks and gaps in the EU's unity front are undeniable and will widen the more time passes by. Whether it will hold until the war ends or not depends on how long the war will last in the end. Here is anothe rmotive why the EU is likely to accept a dictated peace by Russia, than the ukriane, or America. It wants to bring the showact to an end before it has the chance to see the stage collapsing.

[MaDef]

Germany. We sent them campfirelighters from Bundeswehr stocks early on, together with those now infamous helmets.
Well then, Germany has done their part for Ukrainian morale, Her soldiers can now shave with hot water while in the field. :salute:

[August]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6VyZXOzi0EM




If they follow the historical pattern they will be blown out of the water when they reach Sevastopol.

[Skybird]

Neue Zürcher Zeitung:


"There is no security in Europe against Russia, but only with it. Until February 24, 2022, this mantra, which had been repeated at every podium for years, was the consensus: somehow we had to deal with Russia, not "lose" it, despite its violations of human rights and international law. Since February 24, there has been little sign of this. A broad majority of Germans backs Ukraine and is happy about its military successes.

Countless videos of Ukrainian peasants towing Russian tanks and armored personnel carriers, shootdowns of Russian helicopters and songs about the Turkish Bayraktar drone are circulating on social networks. After the CNN and Al-Jazeera effect, now the Twitter effect is bringing the war not to our living rooms, but to our smartphones.

We see what we want to see: military successes by Kiev and a weakening war machine by Moscow driven by hubris and brutality. With this comes the hope that the brave Ukrainians will soon win this battle, peace will return, and politics can turn to other things again.

It is striking that the Bundeswehr and NATO do not seem to have a clear picture of the situation of the Ukrainian armed forces. Some people think they know more about the Russians. The latest fighting in the Donbass nevertheless suggests that Kiev's capabilities should not be overestimated. Despite rapid deliveries of military supplies from the U.S. and the U.K. and hesitant assistance from the EU, Russia has been able to score successes in recent days.

Certainly, the terrain gains are still quite modest, and the Ukrainian army was again able to show some local successes outside Kharkiv and near Kherson, which were widely reported in the media. Nevertheless, it is clear that the two People's Republics will soon be entirely occupied by Russia.

Above all, the reconquest of the occupied territories hardly seems possible in the foreseeable future. After all, beyond the intensively discussed Russian problems with the morale of its own units, the logistical deficiencies or, in many cases, the lack of military professionalism, the Ukrainian problems should not be disregarded.

Ukrainian casualties are also on the rise. Allegedly, they amount to about half of the Russian ones, which would still be considerable. Russian fire superiority is overwhelming in many places, gasoline reserves are precarious, the civilian population is feeling the war more and more acutely, ammunition for Soviet- and Russian-made weapons supplied by Western countries is running out.

Many battle-hardened soldiers, officers, and entire staffs are wounded, fallen, or threatened with encirclement in the Donbass. Odessa remains at risk, and the possibility of a second front reopening in the north cannot be ruled out.

As with the oft-used comparison to the Finnish resistance to the Soviet Union in 1939/40, one can currently see that even a highly motivated defender against a material superiority will eventually reach its limits - and in doubt can only defend, but not conduct operational counterattacks.

What follows from this military situation? It would be foolish to try to precisely predict the course of a war. But at least this much can be predicted, that at the moment a change of the "facts" created since 2014 in violation of international law would only be realistic by accepting a nuclear or at least a "big" war. Putin will never give up Crimea and the Donbass and will defend them by all means if necessary.

In Berlin and in the West, people invoke the European peace order and the international rules of the game that have been agreed upon. That is right. We all want to live in a rules-based world in which the rights of small states and international law are respected. Unfortunately, the opposite is often the case.

At present, the question arises whether this peace order could not be enforced unilaterally and only against smaller states that do not possess nuclear weapons, for example, against Yugoslavia, and whether this order is being subjected to a reality shock by Great Russian nationalism.

The massive sanctions and the exclusion of Russia from the round of G-8 states are important means of making clear to Moscow the consequences of its annexation wars. The costs of the war will weaken Russia for years to come, and they will have political consequences-but they are unlikely to cause it to withdraw from the occupied territories.

When Willy Brandt said, in the course of the New Ostpolitik, that in establishing a new European peace order one must of necessity start from the realities, there was great indignation. The de facto recognition of the GDR and the Soviet oppression of the East Central European states was a red rag to many.

Brandt's policy aimed at medium-term change through the radiance of democracy. This policy was always backed up by NATO's military deterrent potential - this second side of the coin was criminally neglected by the Federal Republic and many Europeans after 1990. Moreover, at the time of the East-West conflict, the Soviet Union was deliberately weakened in other regions of the world.
Please end crises quickly

There is no question of this today either: from Mali to Syria to the Arctic, Germany (and the EU) is leaving the field to Russia. Crises are viewed in isolation, wanting to end them quickly because politicians perceive them as "vote-less" and unpleasant. Thus, the tableau is shifting more and more in favor of the illiberals who despise our pluralistic societies.

Ukraine must not lose the war. So far, so good. But those who are euphoric about Henry Kissinger's territorial cession demands, who instead remain entrenched in the heroic position of "never negotiate" and cling to maximum demands, must empower Ukraine to achieve these goals. In concrete terms, this means that a great deal of heavy and modern military equipment must be delivered in a timely manner.

However, the ring swap pose - the unkept promise to provide old German equipment to the East-Central European states that delivered their old Soviet weapons to Ukraine - does not suggest that offensive operations by Ukraine are really wanted in Berlin, and the U.S. has not yet taken the necessary steps to do so either. Many are now hoping for the return of diplomacy: But does Putin even want to negotiate, and what would his promises be worth? Peace does not seem to be achievable in the foreseeable future, rather a military cease-fire.

But this also means that territorial cessions are a probability and will have to be accepted for the time being. This is not appeasement, nor will Ukraine be sacrificed, and it is not an expression of misunderstood love for Russia, but an insight into realities that may look different again in the medium and long term.

The Ukrainian leadership is showing both a willingness to negotiate and a willingness to fight. But it is on the drip of the U.S., and a look at history shows the danger that the Ukrainians could suffer the same fate as the Kurds, for example: A partner repeatedly dropped in a cynical manner. We should also remember the images of the Afghanistan withdrawal.

The will of the United States to engage in Ukraine will be finite. It should not be forgotten that Washington's strategic focus remains on China, and for that reason alone it will not risk a direct war with Russia. All the less so when it becomes clear how little the Europeans - Germany in the lead - are willing to do for their own security.

Finland's and Sweden's desire to join NATO must therefore also be seen as a vote of no confidence in the EU, which is not living up to its claim to be a power that shapes foreign policy. Security in Europe remains unthinkable without the USA and thus without NATO. Meanwhile, the Federal Republic of Germany is consolidating its role as an unreliable partner: it hesitates and dithers, obstructs a common Western stance, entangles itself in abstruse chains of argumentation and contradictory statements. Afghanistan, Libya and Syria send their regards. In this sense, Olaf Scholz is Angela Merkel's sorcerer's apprentice.

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)


Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)

[mapuc]

If they follow the historical pattern they will be blown out of the water when they reach Sevastopol.

Yes the Ukrainian have several type of ASM now. Their own Neptun. Harpoon From Denmark and naval target robot Robot 17 system from Sweden.

Markus

[Skybird]

And another point scoring for Orban. The EU has, as he demanded, cancelled sanctions against war-mongering patriarch Kyrill.


And according to Reuters, the US will sell Ukraine four Gray Eagle combat drones. It s not yet certain, however, whether Congress will pass the sale. There is a plan to accelerate the training of drone pilots so that they will need only a fraciton of the usual training time. I wonder whether such plans can wqork. If it were that simple, why has one not shortened regular training protocols already before, as routine? Obviously there are then deficits left. But war commands its own demands.

[Dargo]

Taiwan has imposed a ban on the sale of modern chips to Russia and Belarus in response to the invasion of Ukraine.

This week, Taiwan's Ministry of Economic Affairs (MOEA) published a list of strategic high-tech goods that are barred from export to Russia and Belarus, reported DigiTimes. The ministry stated exports of these high-tech commodities are also banned from Belarus because it could help Russia bypass the sanctions.

Firms from these two countries are now banned from purchasing Taiwan-made microprocessors or microcircuits which have any of the following specifications: performance speeds of 5 gigaflops or above, clock frequency rates in excess of 25 MHz, an external interconnection with a data transfer rate of 2.5 MB/s or greater, more than 144 pins, or a basic propagation delay time of less than 0.4 nanoseconds... https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4557937

[Dargo]

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was a deeply flawed military operation, from Moscow’s assumptions about an easy victory, to a lack of preparation, poor planning, and force employment. Less attention has been paid, however, to Russian force structure and manpower issues as a critical element now shaping outcomes in this war. Plans rarely survive first contact with an opponent and militaries invariably must adapt, but strategic force structure choices can prove decisive. Force structure reveals a great deal about a military and its assumptions of what wars it plans to fight and how it plans to fight them.

Some of the most significant problems being experienced by the Russian armed forces are the result of conscious choices and tradeoffs. These decisions help explain many of the observed struggles the Russian armed forces have had in combined arms operations, fighting in urban environments, and attempts to hold terrain. The full extent of Russia’s personnel weaknesses has become clear during this war. As it stands, the Russian military has a shortage of manpower — especially infantry. The Russian military also compromised by establishing a partial mobilization force. Consequently, the Russian army was optimized for a short and sharp war while lacking the capacity to sustain a major conventional conflict at “peace time” manning levels. The Russian armed forces are now pressed to sustain operations in Ukraine and attempting what amounts to a partial mobilization to stem the prospect of significant reversals on the battlefield... https://warontherocks.com/2022/06/not-built-for-purpose-the-russian-militarys-ill-fated-force-design/

[Ostfriese]

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was a deeply flawed military operation, from Moscow’s assumptions about an easy victory, to a lack of preparation, poor planning, and force employment. Less attention has been paid, however, to Russian force structure and manpower issues as a critical element now shaping outcomes in this war. Plans rarely survive first contact with an opponent and militaries invariably must adapt, but strategic force structure choices can prove decisive. Force structure reveals a great deal about a military and its assumptions of what wars it plans to fight and how it plans to fight them.

Some of the most significant problems being experienced by the Russian armed forces are the result of conscious choices and tradeoffs. These decisions help explain many of the observed struggles the Russian armed forces have had in combined arms operations, fighting in urban environments, and attempts to hold terrain. The full extent of Russia’s personnel weaknesses has become clear during this war. As it stands, the Russian military has a shortage of manpower — especially infantry. The Russian military also compromised by establishing a partial mobilization force. Consequently, the Russian army was optimized for a short and sharp war while lacking the capacity to sustain a major conventional conflict at “peace time” manning levels. The Russian armed forces are now pressed to sustain operations in Ukraine and attempting what amounts to a partial mobilization to stem the prospect of significant reversals on the battlefield... https://warontherocks.com/2022/06/not-built-for-purpose-the-russian-militarys-ill-fated-force-design/


A very interesting read, thanks.

[August]

Yes the Ukrainian have several type of ASM now. Their own Neptun. Harpoon From Denmark and naval target robot Robot 17 system from Sweden.

Markus




Well, you know the old Subsim saying:


"There are two types of ship sailing the seas, Submarines and Targets"


:03:

[mapuc]

Well, you know the old Subsim saying:


"There are two types of ship sailing the seas, Submarines and Targets"


:03:

Here's more about this Swedish ASM system

At a joint press conference earlier today Sweden’s Minister of Defense Peter Hultqvist and Minister of the Interior Mikael Damberg announced that Sweden will be sending Robot 17 sjömålsrobot (naval missiles). Developed by Bofors the Robot 17 is Sweden’s manpacked anti-ship version of the AGM-114C Hellfire.

https://www.overtdefense.com/2022/06/02/sweden-to-provide-robot-17-missiles-to-ukraine/

Markus

[August]

Here's more about this Swedish ASM system



https://www.overtdefense.com/2022/06/02/sweden-to-provide-robot-17-missiles-to-ukraine/

Markus




Looks lethal.



You know one thing that is becoming clear to me is that drone delivered munitions are rapidly becoming dominant weapons on the battlefield. Like a poor mans Air Force with an ever bigger sting.

[Rockstar]

Biden announces delivery of HIMARS MRLS systems with ammunitions of 70 km in range. This has been long time coming.

…


I don’t believe there is a 70km range missile. HIMAR/MRLS systems range options are 128km, 165 km or 300km.


What the exact details are of the missiles we’re sending them is unknown. But according to U.S. Secretary of State Blinkin and U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Bridgett Brink. We are trusting Ukraine not to launch missiles into Russia.

I wish I could find the video where I heard Blinken say if this war escalates it will be Putin’s fault not ours or Ukraine. I could be wrong, but the timing and the way he said it gave me that uneasy feeling things are going to heat up.

edit: according to Lockheedmartin they are developing a 499 km range missile too. Maybe they’ll test it out in Ukraine.

[Skybird]

HIMARS ammunitions:

M26: 32 km
M26A1/A2: 45 km
M30/31: 70 km
MGM-140 ATACMS: 300 km


In Germany it is known and used as MARS II

[Skybird]

I yesterday red a small mpiece of an article that unfortunately ois hidden behind a paywall. A former KGB colleague of Putin spoke, they were together in some internal KGB seleciton process to some elite unit in the KGB, this man passed and made it, but he said Ptuion was refused. Interestign was what he gave as explanation for that rejection, it was becaue the KGB specialists came to the cocnlusion that by personality Putin were too unable to fully forsee the consequences of his decisions, and that this would mean too much risk for a KGB specialist/agent.

[Skybird]

An excerpt from https://www.nzz.ch/meinung/der-andere-blick/ist-deutschland-schuld-wenn-russland-den-ukrainekrieg-gewinnt-ld.1686958


In proposing a compromise peace, Kissinger admittedly did not have Munich in mind, but another historical analogy - the Treaty of Versailles. The victors of World War I imposed such harsh conditions on the Germans that they never accepted the "Dictate of Shame."

Hitler then shattered the European order of 1919, so Kissinger was simply reminding everyone that all parties must accept a peace deal if it is to endure. That remains true a century later. Humiliating Putin is not a good precondition for a stable solution. Peace can only be achieved with Russia, not against it. All fantasies of being able to teach the "madman in the Kremlin" a final lesson are therefore nothing more than - fantasies.

Kissinger, however, concealed something. Any lasting order presupposes a balance of power. As soon as one power dominates, it will try to dictate its terms. Despite the Ukrainians' initial successes, the Kremlin's war machine is outnumbering Ukraine's. Although Russian losses in men and materiel are likely to be high, Moscow has the larger arsenal. Moreover, Russian forces are no longer dispersed, but limit their offensives to the Donbass.

In this way, they benefit from shorter supply routes and can concentrate their firepower. They are slowly but surely making territorial gains and are preparing for a long war of attrition. For on the Ukrainian side, too, the ranks of the fighters are thinning; there is a shortage of weapons, fuel and all kinds of supplies.

The war has already lasted a hundred long days, and Ukrainian units are no longer boldly striking from ambush. In the meantime, conventional fighting is taking place. Here, for all their tactical shortcomings, the Russians are in their element.

A balance of power is far from existing. David is still fighting Goliath. Advising the victim to give in to the aggressor at this point in time does not show strategic foresight, but a lack of empathy.

Moreover, the proposal completely misses the mood in Kiev. No matter who you talk to at the moment, whether representatives of the Ukrainian government or the opposition, the answer is identical: Ukraine will fight until the invaders are driven out. That includes Crimea.

In its unconditionality, the war goal may be unrealistic. It is also clear that at some point the question of compromise will arise. For this war will not end with the total victory of one side and the unconditional defeat of the other. But who has the better cards in the end will be decided on the battlefield and not in Washington, Berlin or Paris.

To now publicly formulate war aims from a safe distance only fosters a suspicion that is already virulent in Eastern Europe: The major powers are getting on with Russia without taking the smaller states into consideration. This experience is deeply etched in the memory - whether with the Polish partitions or with the Yalta and Potsdam conferences after World War II. Selensky and his followers know the West, so they fear a second Ukrainian partition.

The first partition happened after the Russian invasion of the Donbass and annexation of Crimea. At that time, Germany and France urged the warring parties to reach an agreement in Minsk. Everyone knew that it was a sham. Moscow never had in mind to fulfill the terms of the treaty. The war was only postponed.

However, Europe had peace for the time being, and that was most important to Paris and Berlin. Nothing has changed in this respect. Bloodshed somewhere in the East is still embarrassing to them today. The prehistory must not be ignored when appealing to "reason" and "prudence" in Kiev. These words are inevitable ciphers for the Western wish that the troublemaker Ukraine would back down. The Minsk agreement embodies a diplomacy of the strongest, in which the weakest end up being treated badly.

The war has lost momentum, and the opponents are struggling tenaciously for every square meter. Military history knows enough examples where the decisive blow followed a phase of apparent exhaustion. A Russian breakthrough is not out of the question, although another scenario is more likely: the war will not end with a beacon, it will slowly consume itself. At some point, psychology and resources will tip the balance.

There is no lack of perseverance on the part of the assaulted. This makes the supply of heavy weapons and ammunition all the more important. Only then, when the time is right, will the Ukrainians be able to compromise confidently instead of having to endure dictates as the defeated. Supporting Ukraine with weapons is not an obstacle to a peace of understanding but, on the contrary, its indispensable prerequisite.


The aggressor will cease hostilities and consider withdrawal - of whatever kind - only when he senses that the determination of the opponents is not weakening. A war of attrition is a test of nerves.


Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (http://www.DeepL.com/Translator) (free version)
And European unity is slowly diminishing, Putin's best man in Europe Victor Orban playing a significant role in this.


Edit: Further quoting the text:

Macron and Scholz act as if the fate of Ukraine is secondary to them. The impression may be wrong, but perception is also a reality. This is especially true in war, where combat morale can be the deciding factor. At this level, Berlin and Paris are making themselves unwilling helpers of the Kremlin.

In 2014, Franco-German mediation led to Putin getting off scot-free and being able to keep his looted property. Berlin soon returned to business as usual and signed the contract for Nord Stream 2. All's well that ends well - except for Ukraine. Putin is hoping for history to repeat itself.
(...)

Those who call for a quick ceasefire and a compromise peace based on today's front are ready to divide Ukraine once again. The Russian occupation of most ports and a blockade of the port of Odessa would severely affect the country's economic viability.
Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (http://www.DeepL.com/Translator) (free version)

[Skybird]

Bubble-Olaf and the president of the ukrainian parliament, Ruslan Stefantschuk.



https://www.tagesspiegel.de/images/ukrainischer-parlamentspraesident-trifft-kanzler-scholz/28398582/2-format1007.jpg


Why do i think of Asterix and Obelix now? :D

[Catfish]

Bubble-Olaf and the president of the ukrainian parliament, Ruslan Stefantschuk. [...]
Why do i think of Asterix and Obelix now? :D
Indeed I have no idea, Asterix is an intelligent frenchman neither weaseling around nor reluctant to fight, when it comes to helping friends and allies against aggressive invasions ... :03:

[Skybird]

Catfish is a party-pooper.









:O:

[Reece]

I second that motion!! :yep:

BTW, I beat him on Whack a Squirrel, now that's bad!! :D

[mapuc]

Bubble-Olaf and the president of the ukrainian parliament, Ruslan Stefantschuk.



https://www.tagesspiegel.de/images/ukrainischer-parlamentspraesident-trifft-kanzler-scholz/28398582/2-format1007.jpg


Why do i think of Asterix and Obelix now? :D

The way you have described Olaf I would say they look like Dick und doof

Markus

[Skybird]

:Kaleun_Wink: :up:



(Dick und Doof : the German show-names for Laurel and Hardy )

[mapuc]

:Kaleun_Wink: :up:



(Dick und Doof : the German show-names for Laurel and Hardy )

You forgot the directly translation Dick=Thick; Doof= Stupid/Dumb

Markus

[Dargo]

Russian 35th combined-arms army (Izyum) is destroyed by its own command
The Russian 35th army, transferred from the Far East and stationed in Izyum, is successfully destroyed by its own army command as evidenced from this full of irony and snark report received and shared by a Russian livejournal blogger. (https://kenigtiger.livejournal.com/?utm_medium=endless_scroll) It tells us about an acute lack of manpower, communications, trench tools and other equipment, in the ill-fated army.

"NO ****ING WAY, BLYAT! Part 1



The 35th army of RF AF, fighting in the forests near Izyum – they asked me to convey a message that, generally speaking, the task of destroying own forces was successfully completed by army’s command – the army is almost gone. To celebrate this event, the army received KAMAZ trucks loaded with shoe polish and toilet paper. The toilet paper, having travelled half the way under pouring rain in trucks with leaky roofs, of course, has fully soaked and without drying it is unsuitable for use (the question of large-scale hanging of the toilet paper to dry is being agreed with the command right now).



The task of destroying own troops was made easier for the command of the 35th army by the fact that, first of all, the army transferred from Far East, without the elements attached to it later, initially represented an incomplete corps with just two full motorised brigades forming the main strike force, and secondly, the forces were driven into the woods to fight the enemy, generally reproducing the conditions of the Hürtgen forest meat grinder of autumn-winter 1944 in the Western front of the Second World War, where the Germans managed for a while to successfully hold off the advance of the allies using only partially combat-ready units, using the terrain, strongpoints and a well-functioning fire system, primarily artillery.



The command of the army only needed to ensure that the forces would not get the necessary means to create various field fortifications and shelters. In forest conditions, when a major part of the enemy missiles and bombs explode at the top of the trees showering everything with shrapnel, this in general solves the question of destroying the personnel and light armoured vehicles, half of which at the moment are non-functional for technical reasons, and another half – due to damage from said shrapnel.



The army command succeeded with this task. From tools for mechanisation and fortification construction, the whole army had around 20 trench charges capable of somewhat increasing the speed of constructing one platoon-level strongpoint. There were not enough BSL-110 spades, picks were missing completely. The lack of spades for construction of at least some form of shelters was compensated by buying up spades from all around the area. At the same time the vehicles parked without shelters for which there were not tools to dig them out, were methodically being destroyed by the enemy.



Since the army did not have any volunteers capable of promptly purchasing and delivering at least some civilian communication equipment, the communications during the main period of hostilities were provided in the first line of battle formation by, at best, field phones TA-57, but for the most part – by messengers.



The enemy however, equipped with modern communication tools and using UAVs freely and on a large-scale, including commercial drones, had an opportunity to deliver substantial blows to our troops taking minimal effort to do so during the hostilities.



Thus, by early June the numbers of combat-ready infantry in certain motorised brigade battalions of the army successfully reached 12-15 people (64th brigade), the combined number of 38th and 64th motorised brigades – less than 100 of truly combat-ready infantry in each brigade.



Wagner and Redut PMCs refused to assault the enemy positions in this area, saying they are not paid THAT MUCH money.



This correspondence received from a battle participant on our side allows us to have the correct answer to the question – “How successfully can the Russian army transfer and bring into combat the combined-arms formations across the whole country?”



The answer is – NO ****ING WAY, BLYAT!



Fight with shoe polish and soaked toilet paper."

[Dargo]

I yesterday red a small mpiece of an article that unfortunately ois hidden behind a paywall. A former KGB colleague of Putin spoke, they were together in some internal KGB seleciton process to some elite unit in the KGB, this man passed and made it, but he said Ptuion was refused. Interestign was what he gave as explanation for that rejection, it was becaue the KGB specialists came to the cocnlusion that by personality Putin were too unable to fully forsee the consequences of his decisions, and that this would mean too much risk for a KGB specialist/agent.

"the conclusion that by personality Putin were too unable to fully for see the consequences of his decisions" same conclusion for a criminal LOL

[Skybird]

Situaitons for Ukranian soldiers becomes more and mnore grim, media do not reflect these and the government hides the real situation to not tackle morale.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/05/26/ukraine-frontline-russia-military-severodonetsk/?bezuggrd=NWL&utm_source=sondermailing

War of attrition, artillery barrages, and trench warfare, all now focussed on small operation zones instead of scattered all across the place. The Russians have finally learned to focus on what they are good at. If it stays this way, the Ukrainians will get slowly minced physically and mentally. So will get the Russians, its just that the Russians have bigger reserves.

[August]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FUIKLO8WUAAoXjb?format=jpg&name=4096x4096


https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/1531802118155296771?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5 Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1531802118155296771%7Ctwgr% 5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=

[Dargo]

The state of the "great" Russian army, a call between mother and son these are no isolated reports of this "special" operation.

The Russian soldier is evidently desperate to get home – but to no avail. Attempting to go the legal way and discharge via breaking the contract doesn’t seem to always work – the ‘refusniks’ are kept in schools while caring officers tell them how much of scumbags and traitors they are for trying to quit. The only real way to escape is to somehow get to Russia and write a report from there – which is nearly impossible since the border between Ukraine and Russia is secured by FSB officers examining every single car to ensure no “runners” could cross. Add to that delays in payment, and the Russian soldier cannot hide his emotions anymore.

"(R)=Russian soldier (M)=His mother
(R): Hi mom. How’s it going?
(M): Alright. What about you?
(R): It’s f*cked! It’s really, really f*cked!
(M): Eh?
(R): There will be no withdrawal, since there is no such directive that the special f*cking operation will last for 90 days. They said up to A YEAR they can keep us here! F*ck, discharging from here is completely pointless! Here some people wrote reports – they took their weapons, they are now sitting in a school for four days! Just sitting! They are being told how much of *******ots they are, traitors, worse than sh*t-eaters! You’re not men, you’re women! And they are sitting there listing to it all, with a hope to be discharged! F*ck no! Until you get to Russia – no f*cking way you can get discharged! AT ALL! But how can you even get to Russia? FSB at the border, they are checking every single car, every tiny bolt, just in case a runner is hiding there! But the only way is to get there, give up all this sh*t *weapons* and write a report where they couldn’t refuse anymore, only through a court with me. I have no f*cking clue how to get out of here! I have no f*cking ideas! To survive here for a week, you can start a f*cking celebration! F*ck, how sick I am of this f*cking army and this f*cking state! F*ck, it would be better if they attacked us!
(M): What is there to do?
(R): Ring the f*cking soldier mothers committee, f*ck the military prosecution! Tell them – “F*ck, I’m separating, I’m a sick woman, I have one son, bring him back home!” Google: Voronezh, Boguchary, prosecution, commandant’s office…
(M): I spoke to that one, he said – “we are not keeping any there forcibly, he can break the contract any time!”
(R): Yes, yes! Of course! No one is kept here forcibly! “…” Tomorrow we’ll be going to write the refusal reports. I’ll stay there. At least it’s safer there. I’m going to write: “I f*cked this army in the mouth together with this country! I won’t be serving this f*cking dump”. F*ck, I’m going to go to a court with them, these b*tches are not paying me anything. In those three months I should have had 600-700 thousand *rubles*, and what do I have? 300 thousand! They give ZERO f*cks about me.
(M): Why is…by the way… why is nothing, *the operation* coming to an end?
(R): It’s because we can’t even advance one bit! Our army – sucks! Frankly – it sucks! We have no one, no one to advance, do you understand? Eight people to take a village! Eight, mom!!! Against them – 500 people entrenched in concrete! And they have eight people without any support at all! What is there to say?! What “strong” Russian army?! It’s an f*cking SHAM army!"

https://wartranslated.com/intercepted-call-what-strong-russian-army-its-a-fcking-sham-army/

[Dargo]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FUIKLO8WUAAoXjb?format=jpg&name=4096x4096


https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/1531802118155296771?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5 Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1531802118155296771%7Ctwgr% 5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=
Severodonetsk was a trap and Russia walked into it with reserves Ukraine has retaken 30% back Russia has a lot of equipment, but they lack personnel that they're now losing in fast amounts a lot of wounded will refuse to go back if they are recovered. Russia treats their soldiers lousy, they are on their own in Ukraine and pays them badly. Now with their reserve army in battle, we see fronts become static that is going swell. :D

[Dargo]

Situaitons for Ukranian soldiers becomes more and mnore grim, media do not reflect these and the government hides the real situation to not tackle morale.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/05/26/ukraine-frontline-russia-military-severodonetsk/?bezuggrd=NWL&utm_source=sondermailing

War of attrition, artillery barrages, and trench warfare, all now focussed on small operation zones instead of scattered all across the place. The Russians have finally learned to focus on what they are good at. If it stays this way, the Ukrainians will get slowly minced physically and mentally. So will get the Russians, its just that the Russians have bigger reserves.

"War of attrition, artillery barrages, and trench warfare" is a good thing for Ukraine they are doing it almost 8 year and gives them time to re-supply their fronts and if they receive the long range weapons they can destroy Russian artillery. Russians have bigger reserves yes, but they lack the personnel to man it certainly if you treat them so bad as Russia does (always done that) Russians are not eager to join this war. When you see Wagner personnel refuse to got to battle you got troubles and Putin has Putin fears to mobilize because people are against that these dictators have power but to a certain level if public opinion where Putin build his power on is against you, it is time to back down

[Dargo]

Ukrainian negotiator Mychajlo Podoljak says there is no point in talking to Russia until Russian troops are "pushed back as far as possible to the Ukrainian border," reports The Guardian.

"Until we have received all the weapons and strengthened our positions and pushed them back as far as possible, there is no point," Podoljak said. Podoljak was responding to an offer from French President Macron. In an interview with regional newspapers, the latter said he is "convinced that it is France's role to mediate." Macron also stated that President Putin made a historic mistake by invading Ukraine and is now isolated. He added that Russia should not be humiliated so that a diplomatic solution is possible when the fighting is over.

[Skybird]

I understand the reason of your arguments pro Ukraine, but I remind of that we hear almost nothing about the losses of the Ukrainians and their supply and moral status and how many wounded they have, and that attrition wars slowly but constantly erode reserves, strengths and capacities. It does not matter so much whether or not Russia advances, or has twice as high casualty rates as the Ukrianians - as long as it makes Ukrainians bleed, erode, weakening them, tiring them. Every human has a breaking point. So has every army.

[mapuc]

The only thing related to our supply and its logistic is that Russia has started to bomb important points in West Ukraine.

(I call it points because my famous wall fell down and I forgot what things are called)

Markus

[Dargo]

I understand the reason of your arguments pro Ukraine, but I remind of that we hear almost nothing about the losses of the Ukrainians and their supply and moral status and how many wounded they have, and that attrition wars slowly but constantly erode reserves, strengths and capacities. It does not matter so much whether or not Russia advances, or has twice as high casualty rates as the Ukrianians - as long as it makes Ukrainians bleed, erode, weakening them, tiring them. Every human has a breaking point. So has every army.The losses of the Ukrainians are high but on this moment they are willing to sacrifice them in the hope, they think, it is worth the gain. The Russians are sending all their troops and resources (active for this operation) to the city of Severodonetsk I hear +10k are now fighting in that area against a much smaller number on the Ukrainian side, and they are not winning that does more to the Russian already poor morale. Ukrainian morale is much better in this battle, the longer they hold the Russians back, the higher it gets. The high casualty rates are important, especially with the Russians because they are short on recruiting soldiers. With the help of the west Ukraine can bleed out the Russians, the more they destroy, the more the Russians have to activate which takes months that Ukraine can use for counteroffensives.

[Dargo]

'Russians throw all reserves at Severodonetsk'

The Russians are sending all their troops and resources to the city of Severodonetsk. This is what the regional governor says on Telegram today. The situation for the remaining people in the city is difficult because "it is impossible to bring food and medicine to the city," he writes. Over the past 24 hours, nine attacks by the Russians have been repelled in the Lugansk region, the governor continues. Several artillery systems and armored vehicles of the Russians are said to have been destroyed. A cruise missile and an unmanned reconnaissance aircraft were also downed. The fighting in Lugansk continues in full force, the governor states. In the mining town of Horskoy, he says, a mother and child were killed after Russian shelling. In other parts of the region, people were injured and buildings damaged.

Dargo: Taking Severodonetsk is not only hard for the Russians but also not it, and it will make them vulnerable they need to take Lugansk that lies across a river (we all saw how good Russians cross rivers) under fire of artillery on higher ground they have gone need to fight up hill that is hard and will cost them allot. If the Russians don’t try and move forward again soon, that might be it. Culmination. Actually, failure is a better word. There is talk about some important Russian victories in the Donbas might have to be reconsider.

[mapuc]

I fully understand their anger.

Macron have said that Ukraine should not humiliate Russia

Mr Macron said it was crucial President Vladimir Putin had a way out of what he called a "fundamental error".

But Dmytro Kuleba said allies should "better focus on how to put Russia in its place" as it "humiliates itself".

Mr Macron has repeatedly spoken to Mr Putin by phone in an effort to broker a ceasefire and negotiations.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61691816

Markus

[Dargo]

The only thing related to our supply and its logistic is that Russia has started to bomb important points in West Ukraine.

(I call it points because my famous wall fell down and I forgot what things are called)

MarkusRussia does that already for months Ukraine railroad system is dense, so they can reroute supply trains quick.

[Dargo]

I fully understand their anger.

Macron have said that Ukraine should not humiliate Russia



https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61691816

MarkusDmytro Kuleba is right, Putin is a big boi that can humiliate himself as a boss. I am convinced the longer Macron and Scholz speak about not humiliating Putin, the less likely they will be accepted as a mediator by those threatened by Putin

[Dargo]

I fully understand their anger.

Macron have said that Ukraine should not humiliate Russia



https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61691816

MarkusPhone calls from World leaders to Putin only strengthen his confidence that he will once again be able to evade consequences through corruption, lies and waiting it out! World leaders need to stop conversing with Putin and make it clear that he's a war criminal! It looks more, do not humiliate Russia. We want to buy un-humiliated gas and oil.

[Skybird]

NZZ on the grains situation:


Russia is exacerbating the global food shortage with its warships in the Black Sea. The world does not have to put up with this. It has every right to enforce free navigation to get Ukrainian grain to markets.

Increasing droughts worldwide, crop failures and then the Ukraine war: world market prices for wheat have roughly doubled in the last twelve months. We Europeans notice this, if at all, through slightly higher bread prices at the bakery and a few francs or euros more spent when shopping at the supermarket. For millions of people living just on the poverty line in the Middle East, Africa and Southeast Asia, it is a matter of existence. In early May, World Food Program Director David Beasley issued a stark warning that 44 million people worldwide were facing an imminent hunger crisis because of huge grain supplies blocked in Ukrainian ports.

The situation is serious. A strong Russian naval force has been lurking off the coast since the attack on Ukraine, threatening to sink any ship. The shipping lanes have been contaminated by mines from both warring parties. Since then, the "breadbasket of the world" has been cut off from its markets.

In 2019, Ukraine had contributed a significant share to feeding the world's population, with 9 percent of global wheat exports, 10 percent for barley, 16 percent for corn and 42 percent for sunflower seeds. Over 90 percent of the booming grain exports were exported by cargo ships across the Black Sea. No freighter has sailed since the outbreak of war. More than 20 million tons of grain from the 2021 harvest are urgently awaiting removal in silos to make way for the new summer harvest. But nothing is going.

Two weeks ago, President Putin offered to open the Black Sea to grain ships if the West would lift its economic sanctions against Russia. This blackmail attempt is unacceptable. At the same time, talks are underway between Moscow, Ankara, Kiev and the UN on a controlled opening of access to the last major Ukrainian-controlled port, Odessa. According to Ankara, Turkey would take a central role in securing and monitoring the shipping routes. Talks are to continue in Turkey next week. Whether an agreement will be reached is open, as important security interests of both warring parties are at stake.

One thing is certain: Russia is violating maritime law with its blockade. In principle, every nation is free to sail through international waters. During a visit to London ten days ago, Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis therefore suggested that a coalition of states should offer convoys of cargo ships escort through the Black Sea to enable the transport of Ukrainian grain.

Such an operation would not be historically unique. In 1986 to 1987, the U.S. had provided escort protection for Kuwaiti oil tankers through the Persian Gulf to secure supplies to world markets against attacks by Iraq and Iran, two littoral states at war. In 2008, the EU launched a mission to safely escort cargo ships through pirate-threatened waters off the coast of Somalia.

In the Black Sea, however, the aggressor is a nuclear power. Therefore, special caution would be required in such a mission. But unlike the establishment of a no-fly zone over Ukraine, which Kiev demanded at the start of the war and which the U.S. rightly rejected, military conflicts between NATO states and Russia would be easier to avoid. Enforcing free passage through international waters would not require firing a shot. Rather, Russia would have to attack other nations' ships to prevent them from sailing.

That Moscow, which has already reached the limits of its military capability in Ukraine, would start a war against other states in this way is highly unlikely. This is all the more true since the grain convoys could be declared a humanitarian mission and formed by a broad coalition of states.

As yet, governments in Washington, London or Paris are reacting cautiously to the proposals. U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Mark Milley told reporters in London Tuesday that should a political decision be made to undertake such a mission, it would be a high-risk military action requiring significant effort. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg made similar comments.



These warnings are appropriate. The shipping routes to Odessa would have to be secured by minesweepers. The presence of dozens of Russian warships in the Black Sea, as well as Russian aircraft and missiles, would be a constant threat. The 1936 Montreux Convention, which prohibits the passage of warships through the Bosporus in wartime, also poses a problem. There are exceptions, but Turkey would have to cooperate. In any case, it would be a race against time. Preparations are likely to take months, too late for the summer harvest.
A rapid opening of the shipping routes is needed

But what is the alternative? Before the outbreak of war, Ukraine produced over 80 million tons of grain per year. It was able to export up to 6 million tons per month through its seaports. It is true that since the Russian blockade, considerable efforts have been made to promote outbound transport via rail, road and the Danube. But capacities are not geared to this. In April, thanks to major efforts by the EU and others, exports were at least increased to around 1 million tons. A maximum of up to 2 million should be possible. This is not enough.

If the sea blockade in the Black Sea is not broken, many of the world's poorest people will wait in vain for Ukrainian grain. And not only this summer, but also in autumn, winter, next year.

A quick end to the Russian "grain war" is needed. If the amicable opening of the shipping routes to Odessa negotiated by the UN and Turkey with Moscow and Kiev takes place, it would be ideal. At the same time, however, the governments of the major maritime nations should seriously consider the option of unilaterally enforced humanitarian escort in the Black Sea. This would allow them to put pressure on Moscow and prepare for such a difficult mission. Time is of the essence.

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)

[Dargo]

Pilots of Russian attack helicopter are scared of getting hit by #Ukraine anti-aircraft defenses, so don't get close to targets. Russian Ministry of Defense videos show before firing, nose of heli is raised - giving increased rocket range, but reduced accuracy... https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-61656289?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=629b638bfc2fb576dc00cfb8%26Unusual%20t actics%20used%20by%20Russian%20attack%20helicopter s%262022-06-04T15%3A18%3A11.567Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:899b48a5-19d6-4190-8a1d-f03a8490e835&pinned_post_asset_id=629b638bfc2fb576dc00cfb8&pinned_post_type=share

[Dargo]

It is senseless to shelter Putin from the sense that he is losing. He will figure that out for himself, and he will act to protect himself. Russians are not cornered. The Russian army is not cornered. It is an invading force. When defeated, units just retreat across the border to Russia. Putin rules in virtual reality, where there is always an escape route. He cannot be cornered in Ukraine, because Ukraine is a real place. It is hard for people in other societies to grasp that Putin is a dictator who controls his country's media. He rules by changing the subject. Putin changes the subject all the time. The last time Russia invaded Ukraine, its media changed the subject to Syria from one day to the next, and Russians went along.

When Russia invaded Ukraine this February, the media quickly adjusted from saying that invasion was impossible to saying it was inevitable. Russians went along. If defeated in reality, Putin will just declare victory on television, and Russians will believe him, or pretend to. He does not need our help for that. It is senseless to create an "off-ramp" in the real world, when all Putin needs is one in a virtual world he completely controls. Talking of "off-ramps" just gives Russian leaders something to laugh about in what are otherwise difficult times.

To be sure, Putin might error and wait too long to declare victory in the virtual world. In that case, he loses power. We cannot save him from such a misjudgment, and it is misguided to try. Putin's power over media will be complete until the moment when it ceases. There is no interval where our actions in the real world will make a difference. Either our off-ramps are unnecessary or they are irrelevant. It is grotesque to ask the Ukrainians to make decisions about the war for the comfort of Russian television producers, who don't take direction from the real world anyway. Misunderstanding Russia through clichés of "cornering" and "off-ramps" will make the war last longer, by distracting from the simple necessity of Russian defeat.

Ukraine is a very different story. Zelensky, unlike Putin, is democratically elected, feels responsible for his people, and governs in a world where others matter. Ukraine has a press that the government does not direct. Zelensky cannot simply change the subject. He has to bring his people along on any major decision. Unlike Putin, Zelensky has to make a case to his people to end this war. He therefore does need help, both to win the war and in telling Ukrainians what comes next. Unlike Russian soldiers, Ukrainians have nowhere else to go. They cannot just go home. The war is fought in their country. They will return to their homes and rebuild.

Ending the war means thinking more about the Ukrainian people and their future, and worrying less about problems that Putin does not in fact have.

https://twitter.com/TimothyDSnyder/status/1533099453669949440

[mapuc]

Dargo wrote:
"It is senseless to shelter Putin from the sense that he is losing. He will figure that out for himself"
and
"To be sure, Putin might error and wait too long to declare victory in the virtual world"

I fear this moment when he understand that he has lost the war in Ukraine and I fear that he in his virtual world see himself and Russia as unbeatable/untouchable and use nukes as they were firecrackers.

Markus

[Jeff-Groves]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q0iiNIfiwpc

[Catfish]

^ :haha:
Though i'm not content with the ending ..


Why russian propaganda is smarter than you think

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cY5Qd7rTC8M

[Dargo]

Russian propaganda is smarter than you think


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cY5Qd7rTC8MFor Russians yeah not for me or anyone that take what they say in media critical, always think for yourself before believing it.

[Dargo]

Dargo wrote:
"It is senseless to shelter Putin from the sense that he is losing. He will figure that out for himself"
and
"To be sure, Putin might error and wait too long to declare victory in the virtual world"

I fear this moment when he understand that he has lost the war in Ukraine and I fear that he in his virtual world see himself and Russia as unbeatable/untouchable and use nukes as they were firecrackers.

MarkusIt would solve the climate crisis in a day if the industrial world is destroyed. :D I know that I am first hit live close to Europe main supply hub, so I go with a big bang but do not fear Putin frell him

[Catfish]

June 3rd they say

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=txlsYsNwCkE

[Dargo]

Vladimir Putin is not going to stop his war in Ukraine, Putin still wants to do four things:

- Destroy Ukraine
- Tear apart NATO
- Humiliate the West
- Rewrite European security

He hasn't succeeded, but he's still trying.

[Dargo]

June 3rd they say

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=txlsYsNwCkEThis is how you win a war stop backup and... meet your fate

[Skybird]

Vladimir Putin is not going to stop his war in Ukraine, Putin still wants to do four things:

- Destroy Ukraine
- Tear apart NATO
- Humiliate the West
- Rewrite European security

He hasn't succeeded, but he's still trying.
Not in this life of his.

[Catfish]

just read this in a YT comment:

Russia: “Our Shells shall block the sun”.
Ukraine: “Then we shall fight in the dark…..with night vision javelins and drones.”

:hmmm: Ukraine has a point. And despite the russian advance YT is full of tanks and all kinds of russian hardware blown up in the last three days.
Impossible to know what to believe.

[Dargo]

In Komsomolsk-on-Amur yesterday, a man set fire to the premises of the Russian Guard, Komcity News reports. Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, 14 military registration and enlistment offices have been set on fire in different regions of Russia. Soldiers of the National Guard participate in the invasion on a par with the military

[Dargo]

Ukraine Frontline situation:

Northern border of Ukraine – continued shelling and aviation strikes by the Russians at the border villages of Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts with the same objective to prevent Ukraine from transferring away troops.

Kharkiv's direction – minor tactical movements and artillery exchanges, nothing serious happening.

Izyum-Sloviansk and Lyman-Sloviansk directions: the enemy became more active – the group attacking from Lyman is is active, attempting to advance, and got to keen to the point where they destroyed a historical church of the Sviatohirsk Lavra. They will try again to cross Siverskyi Donets to push to Sloviansk. The group attacking from Izyum is getting reinforcements and regrouping. What’s interesting is that they work in turns – one group will do some moves like reconnaissance, then the other. Their objective is the same – to surround Sloviansk and cut off the Bahmut-Sloviansk highway.

Severodonetsk – pessimistic ratio of forces is 70 to 30 in favour of the attacker, optimistic – 50 to 50. Russians are bringing new forces, rumours the fights are back in the city centre.

Today a mass strike with Tochka-U’s was conducted on Ukrainian cities of Bahmut, Kramatorksk, Konstantinovka, Lysychansk. Rockets strikes on Sloviansk and Soledar. Helicopters struck near Lysychansk and Severodonetsk towards south-west. Su-25 hit Ustinkovka. Toretsk, New York, Vrubivka, Pokhorvskoye – strikes with Ka-52 helicopters. Also shelled Kranohorivka, Nikolskoye, Vesyoloye. Kamenska settlement near Huliaipole hit with MRL strikes. This shows two things – a) Russians are stuck due to Ukraine bringing in reserves, these attacks were aimed at striking reserve supply lines, b) Strikes along the frontline shows the enemy admits they cannot complete their objectives – they cannot break through the enemy positions and interrupt reserve supplies.

Additionally, yesterday Odesa was attacked with rocket – most were intercepted but one landed, however with inspection it became apparent that it was one of the mid-range rockets with range of no more than 300 km, which may show Russians have to use older rockets due to a lack of stockpiled long-range rockets. This is dangerous for them as they have to come close to the border of Ukrainian anti-air defence strike range. It may not mean they are running out of rockets, but very likely they start preserving them.

Kherson – Ukrainian forces are holding onto the foothold, Russians are trying to knock them out, artillery exchanges.

... https://wartranslated.com/summary-of-a-arestovych-m-feygin-livestream-4-june-2022/

[mapuc]

I got myself some friends on a livestream on yt and manner have I seen stuff in Kharkiv, Sloviansk and other places.

Right now it's shelling and explosion in and around Sloviansk.

Markus

[Rockstar]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RpC1kXhW2Lw

[Catfish]

This is good but a bit old, and who understands german? :hmmm:

edit sorry, was not aware he now also tells the stuff in english now, excellent :up:

[Skybird]

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Saturday told a Bosnian-Serb television broadcaster that Western sanctions (https://beta.dw.com/en/eu-formally-imposes-6th-sanctions-package-targeting-russian-oil/a-62014662) would actually benefit Russia by driving up energy prices.
"Considering the price level that has been established as a result of the West's policies, we have suffered no budgetary losses," he said, adding, "On the contrary, this year we will significantly increase the profits from the export of our energy resources."
In reaction to a European Union agreement that will see roughly 90% of Russian oil imports to the bloc banned by the end of the year, the Moscow hardliner said, "Oil, generally speaking, is not subject to politics, there is a demand for it ... we have alternative sales markets, where we are already increasing sales."

-Deutsche Welle-


If true - and I think he has a point and I mentioned according concerns myself, too - it shows that just "soft power" like politics and economics alone hardly can replace hard power like military muscles.

[Catfish]

On the other hand Lavrov has not said one true word ever.
They are living in their own "reality".

[mapuc]

Danish TV2News wrote:

Russia's top general: Ukraine will attack targets in Russia with weapons from the US

Just as the US is about to send long-range weapons to Ukraine, the Russians say they have intercepted information about an upcoming attack directly against Russia.

When the US decided the other day to send advanced long-range missile systems to Ukraine, the Americans made one condition to the Ukrainians:

Do not send the missiles across the border into Russia.

So far, the US has not publicly set limits on how the Ukrainians can use the American weapons, but on Wednesday US Defence Secretary Anthony Blinken said the Ukrainians had agreed to the Americans' demands.

- The Ukrainians have assured us that they will not use these weapons systems against targets on Russian territory, the secretary said, adding that mutual trust between the US and Ukraine was high.

Now the Russians claim that the Ukrainian regime plans to use the missile systems to attack Russia as soon as they arrive.

These include HIMARS rocket launchers, which can fire multiple guided missiles simultaneously.

The range of the type of rockets the US sends to Ukraine is about 80 kilometres, but the HIMARS system can also fire missiles that can potentially hit targets 300 kilometres away.

And according to the head of Russia's operation in Ukraine, General Mikhail Mizintsev, the Ukrainians have already started planning how they will break the agreement with the Americans.

- According to credible operational information we have obtained as a result of intercepted radio communications, the Kyiv regime is planning another inhuman provocation in the town of Shostka, Mikhail Mizintsev tells the Russian state news agency TASS.

Residential areas targeted
The general claims the "inhuman provocation" involves weapons from the US and Ukraine's security service SBU.

- In the near future, Shostka is expected to receive long-range missiles from the US. With the help of militant groups and Ukraine's armed forces and on the orders of the SBU, it is planned to strike directly at the border area of the Russian Federation from residential areas in the city, says Mikhail Mizintsev.

According to the general, the US weapons make the residential areas of Ukraine legitimate targets.

- With these actions, the neo-Nazi Ukrainians are expected to provoke Russia's armed forces to return fire and then accuse them of indiscriminate attacks against civilian infrastructure and slaughter of Ukraine's civilian population, the general says.

According to Mikhail Mizintsev and the TASS news agency, Ukraine's government plans to use the affair for propaganda.

- There are plans to use Ukrainian and foreign journalists to prepare fake photos and videos about alleged killings of civilians in the city by Russia's military, and it will be distributed widely by Western news agencies, TASS writes.

The allegations
During the first months of the war, Russia has numerous times accused Ukraine and Western media of fabricating photos and videos of alleged Russian war crimes in Ukraine.

On the other hand, US President Joe Biden, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen have all accused Russia of committing war crimes.

These include the Butja district outside Kiyv, where mass graves and the bodies of civilians bound hand and foot have been found.

Earlier in the conflict, Russia repeatedly blamed Ukraine for things that were not subsequently documented.

For example, the Russians have accused Ukraine of building nuclear weapons at the disastrous Chernobyl power plant, accused Ukraine of committing genocide in the east of the country and said that an American general fought alongside Ukrainians at the Azovstahl steelworks in Mariupol.

The advanced US missile systems that will arrive in Ukraine shortly.

The Moscow regime has reacted to the new US arms shipment, with Vladimir Putin's press spokesman Dmitry Peskov saying, according to TASS, that the US is "throwing gasoline on the fire" and that the Americans are apparently willing to fight Russia to the last Ukrainian soldier.

Russia's foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, went a step further, accusing Ukraine on Wednesday of taking "provocative steps" that could draw "a third country" into the war.

- Such a risk certainly exists. What the Kiyv regime is demanding from its Western benefactors goes far beyond what is decent and is a provocation aimed at involving the West in military action, Sergei Lavrov said, according to Reuters.

How the Russians will react if there is an attack - or anything like it - deep inside their territory remains to be seen.

Neither Ukraine nor the US has responded to the Russian accusations at the time of writing.

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)


Why do I smell a false flag operation is coming very soon ?

Markus

[Catfish]

^ do you mean the russian false flag operation going on in Donbas since 2014?
:03:
If Russia can shoot down an international airliner and get away with it .. just saying.

[mapuc]

^ do you mean the russian false flag operation going on in Donbas since 2014?
:03:
If Russia can shoot down an international airliner and get away with it .. just saying.

No Russia will use some of their own rockets and fire against Russia from Ukraine and thereafter saying it was Ukraine who has fired several HIMARS rocket which they got from USA.

I don't think Ukraine would be so dumb and break an agreement which could mean that USA stop sending more weapon to Ukraine.

Markus

[les green01]

no different than russian sending weapons to other countries to use against US but if Ukraine going take their country back they better think about doing it quick a good chance dems going lose congress here good chance they going lose the White House in 24

[Skybird]

On the other hand Lavrov has not said one true word ever.
They are living in their own "reality".
Sure, hew is a notorious liar. But look at the prices for energy. That the raises in prices give them certaion ammounts of compensation for reduced sales to the West, even more so if they can open new deals with other parts of the world, is obvious. And fact is they have signed such deals.

[August]

https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/1531802118155296771/photo/1


/ Ukrainian TVD, Day 89-97. Intense combat has continued in the Donbas over the past 9 days. Russian forces continue to expand on their breakthrough around Popasna & have captured large parts of Severodonetsk. Ukraine counterattacks in Kherson.


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FUIKLO8WUAAoXjb?format=jpg&name=4096x4096

[Skybird]

Madrid goes head-to-head with Berlin and says it mulls the training for and delivery of Leopard-2A4 tanks from its reserves. Training should take placee in Lithuania and Spain.

Now it counts! We will see whether or not Berlin dares to vetoe against this or not (usually selling arms to other countries includes clauses that the customer needs permission to use these weapons in certain ways or hand them on to other follow-on customers).

However, there are videos showing that the Russians bring in T-80s on trains, and in huge numbers. These so far were surprisingly absent, although the Russians have plenty of them in mothballed reserves. Probably because for the Russians they are a logistics nightmare due to their much higher fuel demands. Lets hope they end up like the King Tigers in the Ardennes. :D

[Rockstar]

Poland has gone above and beyond the call of duty and for good reasons. He also alludes to the idea Germany has provided more than what they're letting on



https://youtu.be/sSPhOWDkcPk

[Skybird]

Der Tagesspiegel, refering also to a text by the Washington Post.


The Russian war of aggression has been raging in Ukraine for more than 100 days. Villages and towns are attacked daily, and on Sunday morning the capital Kiev was attacked again for the first time in several weeks. Many people are dying every day - on both sides. Every day people have to flee their homes. So far, Russian President Vladimir Putin has not been able to score any major military successes.

This is not least due to the support Ukraine receives from the West: Weapons, intelligence information as well as humanitarian aid and not to forget, of course: a lot of money. Only in this way has Ukraine, with its President Volodymyr Selenskyj, been able to keep the numerically clearly superior enemy in check so far, and even to drive him out of some already conquered territories.

No one can really estimate how long this war in Europe will last.

"It may drag on for another two to six months," Ukrainian presidential adviser Mychajlo Podolyak said Friday evening in an interview with the opposition Russian online portal "Medusa." There will be negotiations only when the situation on the battlefield changes and Russia no longer feels it can dictate terms, Podolyak said. In the end, he said, it would depend on how the mood in the societies of Europe, Ukraine and Russia changed.

Podoljak's statement alluded to a point that could indeed become decisive for the war - the question of how long the West will be willing to support Ukraine to the extent it has done so far - not least with the sanctions that have long since been adopted and are having an impact around the world. And if a report in the renowned "Washington Post" is to be believed, this is precisely the Russian dictator's new strategy.

According to the paper, Putin is preparing for a long war of attrition over Ukraine and will try to use economic weapons such as a blockade of Ukrainian grain exports to diminish the West's support for Kiev, according to members of the Russian business elite, the paper writes. Putin believes "that the West will be exhausted," the paper quotes an allegedly well-connected Russian billionaire who, the paper says, wished to remain anonymous for fear of retaliation.

Putin may not have expected the West's initially strong and unified response, "but now he is trying to reshape the situation, and he believes he will win in the long run," the billionaire said. Western leaders are prone to election cycles, he said, and Putin believes "that public opinion can change in a day."

Putin "is a very patient man. He can afford to wait six to nine months," the billionaire explained. "He can control Russian society much better than the West can control its society."

The paper also quotes a Russian official who, according to the report, is close to Moscow diplomatic circles and also wished to remain anonymous for fear of reprisals.

The embargo on Russian seaborne oil exports announced by the European Union this week - hailed by European Council President Charles Michel as maximum "pressure on Russia to end the war" - would have "little impact in the short term," the official reportedly said. "The mood in the Kremlin is that we can't lose - no matter what the price."

And that attitude is reflected in official statements it Kremlin. "The West has made one mistake after another, which has led to growing crises, and to say that this is all due to what is happening in Ukraine and what Putin is doing is wrong," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told The Washington Post.

Former European Bank for Reconstruction and Development chief economist Sergei Guriev told the newspaper that Putin has little choice but to continue the war in the hope that Ukraine's grain blockade "will lead to instability in the Middle East and trigger a new wave of refugees."

The paper also cites interview statements by the head of Russia's Security Council, Nikolai Patrushev, in this regard. According to the newspaper, Patrushev, who is considered a hardliner, is one of the few people who still have access to Putin.

In several interviews, the paper said, the actually publicity-shy former KGB companion of Putin's had stressed that Europe was on the brink of a "deep economic and political crisis," with rising inflation and falling living standards already affecting the mood of Europeans, and that a new migrant crisis would create new security threats.


"The world is gradually entering an unprecedented food crisis. Tens of millions of people in Africa or the Middle East will be on the brink of starvation - because of the West. To survive, they will flee to Europe. I am not sure if Europe will survive the crisis," Patrushev reportedly said in one of the interviews to the Russian state newspaper Rossiyskaya Gazeta.

According to the Washington Post report, the Kremlin is already seeing the first signs that the West's stance is beginning to crumble. For example, the weeks of diplomatic haggling over the terms of the EU oil embargo would be seen as a sign of the West's waning resolve, according to economic experts and the Russian official.

Putin is therefore also likely to have been pleased by French President Emmanuel Macron's recent statement. The latter had said in an interview on Saturday that Putin must not be humiliated so that a diplomatic solution could be found after an end to the fighting in Ukraine. "We must not humiliate Russia so that the day the fighting stops, we can use diplomatic means to build a launch pad," the president said. "I am convinced that France's role is to be a mediating power."


Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (http://www.DeepL.com/Translator) (free version)


With the oil embargo already indicating clear rifts within the EU, and mounting economical costs, it indeed is the question whether the Europeans have the long breath needed here. And the US, the Democrats, are slipping and sliding towards to huge political defeats at the mid term elections and 2024. If things go according to announcements, then in early autumn the war may see a turning point in favour of the Ukraine, but in the longer time perspective beyond that the clock is definitely ticking against it.

Which is even more a concern that France and Germany may want to try forcing the Ukraine into accepting a deal of which they - I say: wrongly - assume it would appease Putin enough so that things can return a bit to business as before again. So that they can deal with the political agendas at gome again.

[Dargo]

The Russian military has confirmed the missile attack on the Ukrainian capital Kiev. The missiles were fired at targets in a suburb of the city. This, according to the Russians, included the destruction of T-72 tanks, which had been stored in a workshop for train cars. The Soviet-era tanks had been supplied to Ukraine by Eastern European countries.

Ukraine denies that tanks were destroyed, but does confirm that four missiles struck a railroad workshop. According to the top man of the Ukrainian railroads, no tanks were stored there.

This is the first time in weeks that missiles have been fired at the Ukrainian capital. According to Ukraine, the projectiles were fired from the Caspian Sea. One of the missiles was destroyed by the air defense system, according to the military. According to the Russians, the attack was carried out with "high-precision long-range missiles."

As far as is known, there were no deaths in the missile attack. One injured person was taken to the hospital.

A Russian missile that may have been on its way to Kiev flew "dangerously close" to a nuclear power plant in southern Ukraine, says state energy company Energoatom. The plant in question was in Yuzhnoöekrajinsk, one of the country's largest nuclear power plants. If the missile had hit the plant, the consequences would have been catastrophic, according to Energoatom.

[Dargo]

Der Tagesspiegel, refering also to a text by the Washington Post.


The Russian war of aggression has been raging in Ukraine for more than 100 days. Villages and towns are attacked daily, and on Sunday morning the capital Kiev was attacked again for the first time in several weeks. Many people are dying every day - on both sides. Every day people have to flee their homes. So far, Russian President Vladimir Putin has not been able to score any major military successes.

This is not least due to the support Ukraine receives from the West: Weapons, intelligence information as well as humanitarian aid and not to forget, of course: a lot of money. Only in this way has Ukraine, with its President Volodymyr Selenskyj, been able to keep the numerically clearly superior enemy in check so far, and even to drive him out of some already conquered territories.

No one can really estimate how long this war in Europe will last.

"It may drag on for another two to six months," Ukrainian presidential adviser Mychajlo Podolyak said Friday evening in an interview with the opposition Russian online portal "Medusa." There will be negotiations only when the situation on the battlefield changes and Russia no longer feels it can dictate terms, Podolyak said. In the end, he said, it would depend on how the mood in the societies of Europe, Ukraine and Russia changed.

Podoljak's statement alluded to a point that could indeed become decisive for the war - the question of how long the West will be willing to support Ukraine to the extent it has done so far - not least with the sanctions that have long since been adopted and are having an impact around the world. And if a report in the renowned "Washington Post" is to be believed, this is precisely the Russian dictator's new strategy.

According to the paper, Putin is preparing for a long war of attrition over Ukraine and will try to use economic weapons such as a blockade of Ukrainian grain exports to diminish the West's support for Kiev, according to members of the Russian business elite, the paper writes. Putin believes "that the West will be exhausted," the paper quotes an allegedly well-connected Russian billionaire who, the paper says, wished to remain anonymous for fear of retaliation.

Putin may not have expected the West's initially strong and unified response, "but now he is trying to reshape the situation, and he believes he will win in the long run," the billionaire said. Western leaders are prone to election cycles, he said, and Putin believes "that public opinion can change in a day."

Putin "is a very patient man. He can afford to wait six to nine months," the billionaire explained. "He can control Russian society much better than the West can control its society."

The paper also quotes a Russian official who, according to the report, is close to Moscow diplomatic circles and also wished to remain anonymous for fear of reprisals.

The embargo on Russian seaborne oil exports announced by the European Union this week - hailed by European Council President Charles Michel as maximum "pressure on Russia to end the war" - would have "little impact in the short term," the official reportedly said. "The mood in the Kremlin is that we can't lose - no matter what the price."

And that attitude is reflected in official statements it Kremlin. "The West has made one mistake after another, which has led to growing crises, and to say that this is all due to what is happening in Ukraine and what Putin is doing is wrong," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told The Washington Post.

Former European Bank for Reconstruction and Development chief economist Sergei Guriev told the newspaper that Putin has little choice but to continue the war in the hope that Ukraine's grain blockade "will lead to instability in the Middle East and trigger a new wave of refugees."

The paper also cites interview statements by the head of Russia's Security Council, Nikolai Patrushev, in this regard. According to the newspaper, Patrushev, who is considered a hardliner, is one of the few people who still have access to Putin.

In several interviews, the paper said, the actually publicity-shy former KGB companion of Putin's had stressed that Europe was on the brink of a "deep economic and political crisis," with rising inflation and falling living standards already affecting the mood of Europeans, and that a new migrant crisis would create new security threats.


"The world is gradually entering an unprecedented food crisis. Tens of millions of people in Africa or the Middle East will be on the brink of starvation - because of the West. To survive, they will flee to Europe. I am not sure if Europe will survive the crisis," Patrushev reportedly said in one of the interviews to the Russian state newspaper Rossiyskaya Gazeta.

According to the Washington Post report, the Kremlin is already seeing the first signs that the West's stance is beginning to crumble. For example, the weeks of diplomatic haggling over the terms of the EU oil embargo would be seen as a sign of the West's waning resolve, according to economic experts and the Russian official.

Putin is therefore also likely to have been pleased by French President Emmanuel Macron's recent statement. The latter had said in an interview on Saturday that Putin must not be humiliated so that a diplomatic solution could be found after an end to the fighting in Ukraine. "We must not humiliate Russia so that the day the fighting stops, we can use diplomatic means to build a launch pad," the president said. "I am convinced that France's role is to be a mediating power."


Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (http://www.DeepL.com/Translator) (free version)


With the oil embargo already indicating clear rifts within the EU, and mounting economical costs, it indeed is the question whether the Europeans have the long breath needed here. And the US, the Democrats, are slipping and sliding towards to huge political defeats at the mid term elections and 2024. If things go according to announcements, then in early autumn the war may see a turning point in favour of the Ukraine, but in the longer time perspective beyond that the clock is definitely ticking against it.

Which is even more a concern that France and Germany may want to try forcing the Ukraine into accepting a deal of which they - I say: wrongly - assume it would appease Putin enough so that things can return a bit to business as before again. So that they can deal with the political agendas at gome again.

Think we give France and Germany too much power here, there are 25 other countries that also have a say in the EU.

[Jimbuna]

Russia will expand the list of targets it will attack in Ukraine if Western countries send them long-range weapons, President Vladimir Putin says.

The warning came as explosions shook parts of Kyiv on Sunday in the first assault on the capital city for weeks.

Russia says it hit tanks supplied by European countries. Ukraine says it was a railway repair plant.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61697093

[Dargo]

Major General of the Russian army Roman Kutuzov died during a special operation in Ukraine, war correspondent Alexander Sladkov said. According to him, Kutuzov led the soldiers on the attack and died in battle.

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KEGF9a3x9iE

[Dargo]

Russia will expand the list of targets it will attack in Ukraine if Western countries send them long-range weapons, President Vladimir Putin says.

The warning came as explosions shook parts of Kyiv on Sunday in the first assault on the capital city for weeks.

Russia says it hit tanks supplied by European countries. Ukraine says it was a railway repair plant.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61697093
Says Russia's little scared bunker boy if it's so easy to strike targets... how come his planned 3 day invasion of Ukraine is now into its 102 day?

[Catfish]

One can see when he lies ..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HVKEPG2eNYE

[Rockstar]

One can see when he lies ..




It's easy to see, he begins lying as soon as his lips start moving. I listened to it, what a load of hogwash

[mapuc]

From Danish TV2News

Despite sanctions from the EU and US, 2022 looks likely to be the most profitable year ever for Russia's oil and gas industry.

The situation in Russia at this moment is giving us all a quick lesson in supply and demand.

When demand for a commodity is high, the price goes up.

This also applies to the oil and gas that is currently partly financing Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine.

US and EU sanctions have boosted demand and, according to new calculations by Bloomberg Economics, the Moscow regime now looks set to make around $800 million a day from oil and gas sales for the rest of the year.

Oil prices alone have risen by 50 percent this year, and while Russia may sell less oil and gas in 2022 than in 2021, total revenue is likely to reach $285 billion this year - 20 percent higher than in 2021, Bloomberg's calculations show.

And it is largely EU countries that have helped finance Russia's surplus in the first months of the year.

The think tank Breugel monitors Russian oil exports from ports in the west of the country, and its figures show that significantly more oil was shipped in the first 20 weeks of 2022 compared to the first 20 weeks of 2021.

Specifically, week on week, about 20 percent more oil was shipped in 2022 than in 2021 in the first 12 weeks after the invasion, and according to Breugel's figures, the EU bought about half of the oil.

Profits keep growing
Economist Robin Brooks, an expert at the Institute for International Finance, analysed in late May how Russia's economy is affected by the war and rising oil prices.

According to his calculations, Russia's trade surplus for the first months of the year is already almost at the level of the amount for the whole of 2021.

Part of the picture in Robin Brooks' tweet, however, is that Russia is importing significantly fewer goods than before the invasion because of the sanctions.

Then the other day oil was hit by sanctions, which Robin Brooks says were necessary to hit Russia's growing surplus.

In a tweet from before the EU adopted its sanctions package, he shows how Russia has run week-on-week trade surpluses through 2022.

How much the EU sanctions will affect oil prices and the Russian economy is still uncertain, but Russia's oil sales are expected to fall sharply once the EU's ban on oil imports via tankers takes effect in earnest.

In Russia, too, there are concerns about what the sanctions will mean.

Yury Rykov, head of the energy department at the Russian think-tank Institute of Energy and Finance, for example, tells state-controlled media Sputnik that the sanctions could potentially lead to a big loss for Russia if it fails to find ways around them

Although Russia has started to sell more oil to India and China, it is unlikely to be able to send significantly more oil that way because of transport capacity constraints.

- If it succeeds (for the EU, ed.), we won't get the same benefit from the price because of the smaller supply, he says.

According to Bloomberg Economics, it's not just rising oil prices that look set to benefit Russia's economy.

Several raw materials have also risen in price, including nickel, platinum and palladium, which Russia also produces a lot of.

In total, Bloomberg Economics expects Russia's total earnings from sales of raw materials, oil and gas to reach more than the $300 billion frozen by the US and other Western countries after the invasion.

Markus

[Skybird]

Think we give France and Germany too much power here, there are 25 other countries that also have a say in the EU.
Decisions on many issues must be made unanimously. Remember Hungary and the 6th sanction packet?

[Skybird]

From Danish TV2News

Despite sanctions from the EU and US, 2022 looks likely to be the most profitable year ever for Russia's oil and gas industry.

The situation in Russia at this moment is giving us all a quick lesson in supply and demand.
(...)
Several raw materials have also risen in price, including nickel, platinum and palladium, which Russia also produces a lot of.

In total, Bloomberg Economics expects Russia's total earnings from sales of raw materials, oil and gas to reach more than the $300 billion frozen by the US and other Western countries after the invasion.

Markus
Yep, since weeks already it becomes more and more obvious that the sanctions more or less backfire, at least in parts: gas, oil, and certain ores and industrial commodities. We stumble over our own dependency on these.

And we get openly blackmailed over our moral values: hunger in the world, grain deliveries interrupted by force, and hundreds of millions of people taken hostage by the Kremlin. From that direction, the global mood will soon start to swing against the ukrainians.

Regarding Russia, the baby is dead, we threw it out with the bath water, but regarding China - well, China is in control of relevant and indispensable ammounts of commodities we need for our precious energy turnaround. Rare earths, solar panels, windmills, you name it - without China our wonderful idea must collapse. And if it succeeds we find ourselves depending on China. Not to mention that China economically struggles and maybe cannot fulfill the epxcetations we put into it, even if it wants to play nice.

It sucks. Welcome in the 22nd century. Think its gonna get even much worse and even more brutal. Cannot see Europe having the muscle - the real muscle, not just some word-enriched hogwash - to make it. In a certain, grim way, that's comforting. I never was a friend of the European illusions. Maybe this is the age of hard lessons in Realpolitik. And maybe not just in what Bubble-Olaf thinks Realpolitik is. My understanding of Realpolitik includes being taught by pain and failure how illusive ones own daydreams are. So far the Europeans, especially the Germans, desperately try to save them. They will lose.



For Germany amiognst the Europeans nations it is especially bitter. Decades of foreign politlical paradigms of theirs, half a century of self-betrayal: ALL FAILED and exploded them into their faces.

The body still twitches. But these are only reflexes.

[mapuc]

Yep, since weeks already it becomes more and more obvious that the sanctions more or less backfire, at leats in parts: gas, oil, and certain ores and industrial commodities.
We stumble over our own dependency on these.

Regarding Russia, the baby is dead, we threw it out with the bath water, but regarding China - well, China is in control of relevant and indispensable ammounts of commodities we need for our precious energy turnaround. Rare earths, solar panels, windmills, you name it - without China our wonderful idea must collapse. And if it succeeds we find ourselves depending on China.

It sucks.

I was one of those who laughed at Trump when he accused us the European to be to independent on Russia gas and oil.

Markus

[Rockstar]

I was one of those who laughed at Trump when he accused us the European to be to independent on Russia gas and oil.

Markus

All I can think of is the massive amount of bandwidth wasted here by our most notable creative writers and other know-it-alls writing pages upon pages and posted stupid memes about Trump collusion Putin Conspiracy theories. Michael Cohen is gonna drop the bomb ANY DAY NOW! Still waiting :har::har::har::har:

"Putin Asks And Trump Delivers - A List Of All The Good Things Trump Did For Russia

Slate's Fred Kaplan writes (https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2019/01/trump-putin-meeting-no-note-taker.html):The Washington Post’s Greg Miller (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/trump-has-concealed-details-of-his-face-to-face-encounters-with-putin-from-senior-officials-in-administration/2019/01/12/65f6686c-1434-11e9-b6ad-9cfd62dbb0a8_story.html) reported Sunday that President Donald Trump’s confiscation of the translator’s notes from a one-on-one conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin in 2017 was “unusual.” This is incorrect. It was unprecedented. There is nothing like it in the annals of presidential history.Not really. Other U.S. leaders held long private meetings with their counterparts without notes being taken.
When Richard Nixon met Leonid Brezhnev he did not even bring his own interpreter:George Szamuely @GeorgeSzamuely - 20:57 utc - 14 Jan 2019 (https://twitter.com/GeorgeSzamuely/status/1084919291894480898) Nixon would meet Brezhnev alone, the only other person in attendance being Viktor Sukhodrev, the Soviet interpreter. "Our first meeting in the Oval Office was private, except for Viktor Sukhodrev, who, as in 1972, acted as translator." Nixon on Brezhnev's 1973 visit. RN, p.878 . Therefore, the only "notes" that would exist would be those of the Soviet interpreter. Not sure he would have time to make notes and translate and, even if he did so, whether those notes would be housed in any US archive.
Nixon's White House office was bugged. There are probably tape recordings of the talks. There might also be recordings of the Trump-Putin talks.
At their 1986 Reykjavik summit Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev talked without their notetakers (https://www.nytimes.com/1985/11/21/world/reagan-continues-private-meetinfs-with-gorbachev.html):Mr. Reagan and Mr. Gorbachev began their second day of talks with a private meeting that had been scheduled to last 15 minutes but ran for nearly 70 minutes, with only interpreters present. They met in a small room in the Soviet Mission, with the Soviet leader seated in a small armchair and Mr. Reagan on a sofa. In the afternoon, they meet alone for a little over 20 minutes and then again for 90 minutes. All told, the two leaders have spent 4 hours and 51 minutes alone, except for interpreters, over the two days here.
The archives of the Reykjavik talks (https://nsarchive2.gwu.edu/NSAEBB/NSAEBB203/index.htm) do not include any notes of those private talks.

But, who knows, maybe Nixon and Reagan where also on the Russian payroll, just like Donald Trump is today.
https://www.moonofalabama.org/images8/putintrump-s.jpg

Only that Trump is controlled by Putin can explain why the FBI opened a counter-intelligence investigation against Trump (https://www.moonofalabama.org/2019/01/the-trump-russia-scam-how-obama-enabled-the-fbi-to-spy-on-trump.html) (see section three).

That the FBI agents involved in the decision were avid haters of Russia and of Trump has surely nothing to do with it. That the opening of a counter-intelligence investigation gave them the legal ability under Obama's EO12333 to use NSA signal intelligence against Trump is surely irrelevant.

What the FBI people really were concerned about is Trump's public record of favoring Russia at each and every corner.
Trump obviously wants better diplomatic relations with Russia. He is reluctant to counter its military might. He is doing his best to make it richer. Just consider the headlines below. With all those good things Trump did for Putin, intense suspicions of Russian influence over him is surely justified.

Trump deploys TANKS to Estonia as NATO builds up HUGE army on Russian border (https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/764014/Trump-US-military-Estonia-Nato-defence-Stoltenberg-Russia-border-Putin-threat) - Express, Feb 7 2017

Trump launches attack on Syria with 59 Tomahawk missiles (https://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/06/us-military-has-launched-more-50-than-missiles-aimed-at-syria-nbc-news.html) - CNBC, Apr 6 2017

U.S. Rejects Exxon Mobil Bid for Waiver on Russia Sanctions (https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/21/business/energy-environment/treasury-exxon-mobil-sanctions-waiver.html) - NYT, Apr 21 2017

Trump to promote U.S. natgas exports in Russia's backyard (https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-trump-lng/trump-to-promote-u-s-natgas-exports-in-russias-backyard-idUSL1N1JT04Q) - Reuters, Jul 3 2017

Trump Urges East Europe to Loosen Russia's Grip With U.S. Gas (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-06/trump-urges-east-europe-to-loosen-russia-s-grip-with-u-s-gas) - Bloomberg, Jul 6 2017

Trump signs bill approving new sanctions against Russia (https://edition.cnn.com/2017/08/02/politics/donald-trump-russia-sanctions-bill/index.html) - CNN, Aug 3, 2017

Justice Dept Asks Russia's RT to Register as Foreign Agent (https://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/Russia-Today-RT-Justice-Dept-foreign-agent/2017/09/13/id/813229/) - Newsmax, Sep 13 2017

US 'to restrict Russian military flights over America' (https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/us-russia-military-flights-america-planes-relations-washington-dc-moscow-trump-putin-nato-a7967496.html) - Independent, Sep 26 2017

Trump signs into law U.S. government ban on Kaspersky Lab software (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-cyber-kaspersky/trump-signs-into-law-u-s-government-ban-on-kaspersky-lab-software-idUSKBN1E62V4) - Reuters, Dec 12 2017

Trump gives green light to selling lethal arms to Ukraine (https://thehill.com/policy/international/365906-trump-administration-approves-lethal-arms-sales-to-ukraine) - The Hill, Dec 20 2017

U.S. Punishes Chechen Leader in New Sanctions Against Russians (https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/20/us/politics/trump-sanctions-russia-chechnya.html) - NYT, Dec 20 2017

Sputnik Partner 'Required To Register' Under U.S. Foreign-Agent Law (https://www.rferl.org/a/sputnik-partner-says-required-to-register-united-states-fara-law/28967234.html) - RFERL, Jan 10 2018

Trump says Russia is helping North Korea avoid sanctions (https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-says-russia-is-helping-north-korea-avoid-sanctions/) - CBSNews, Jan 17 2018

Trump's 'energy dominance' strategy is undercutting Russia's influence and business in Europe (https://www.businessinsider.com/trumps-energy-dominance-undercutting-russias-influence-in-europe-2018-2?IR=T) - Reuters, Feb 9 2018

Trump looks to deter Russia, China with $686B ask for Pentagon (https://thehill.com/policy/defense/373469-trump-pentagon-request-looks-to-deter-russia-china-with-686b-ask) - The Hill, Feb 12 2018

American General In Syria Confirms US Forces Killed Hundreds Of Russians In Massive Battle (http://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/19335/american-general-in-syria-confirms-us-forces-killed-hundreds-of-russians-in-massive-battle) - The Drive, Mar 16 2018

Trump orders expulsion of 60 Russian diplomats, closure of Seattle consulate (https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-orders-expulsion-of-60-russian-diplomats-closure-of-seattle-consulate/) - CBS, Mar 26 2018

Trump vows periodical dispatch of US troops to Baltic states, step up air defense (https://en.delfi.lt/lithuania/foreign-affairs/trump-vows-periodical-dispatch-of-us-troops-to-baltic-states-step-up-air-defense.d?id=77605015) - Lithuania Tribune, Apr 3 2018

Trump opposes Nord Stream II, questions Germany (https://www.aa.com.tr/en/energy/finance/trump-opposes-nord-stream-ii-questions-germany/19506) - AA, Apr 4 2018

Trump just hit Russian oligarchs with the most aggressive sanctions yet (https://news.vice.com/en_us/article/bjpyg3/trump-hits-russia-oligarchs-with-new-sanctions) - Vice, Apr 6 2018

Trump orders missile strike on Syria military targets (https://www.cbsnews.com/news/live-updates-us-bombs-syria-missile-strikes/) - CBSNews, Apr 9 2018

Aluminum Stocks Jump As Trump Sanctions Target Putin Pal (https://www.investors.com/news/aluminum-stocks-rise-trump-sanctions-hit-rusal/) - Investors, Apr 9 2018

Russia ‘deeply disappointed’ at Trump’s withdrawal from Iran deal (https://www.timesofisrael.com/russia-deeply-disappointed-at-trumps-withdrawal-from-iran-deal/) - Times of Israel, May 9 2018

Trump to NATO allies: Raise military spending to 4 percent of GDP (https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/07/trump-tells-nato-allies-military-spending-4-percent-180711163313193.html) - AlJazeerah, Jul 12 2018

Trump says U.S. ties to NATO ‘very strong’ (https://www.politico.com/story/2018/07/12/trump-nato-spending-714976) - Politico, Jul 12 2018

U.S. to sanction Turkey for receiving S-400 missiles (https://ahvalnews.com/us-turkey/us-sanction-turkey-receiving-s-400-missiles) - Ahval, Jul 27 2018

Trump administration to hit Russia with new sanctions for Skripal poisoning (https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-administration-hit-russia-new-sanctions-skripal-poisoning-n898856) - NBC News Aug 8 2018

Space Force Is Trump’s Answer to New Russian and Chinese Weapons (https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/08/10/space-force-is-trumps-answer-to-new-russian-and-chinese-weapons/) - FP, Aug 10 2018

US Sanctions Chinese Entity Over Purchase of Russian Fighters, S-400s – Treasury (https://sputniknews.com/world/201809201068208812-us-sanctions-china-s-400-/) - Sputnik, Sep 20 2018

Trump hints at punitive action against India for buying S-400 from Russia (https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/donald-trump-india-russia-s-400-1366457-2018-10-11) - India Today, Oct 11 2018

Trump Agrees to Boost Pentagon's Budget to $750 Bln in 2019 - Reports (https://sputniknews.com/us/201812101070542882-usa-trump-pentagon-military-budget-2019/) - Sputnik, Oct 12 2018

Trump says US will withdraw from nuclear arms treaty with Russia (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/oct/20/trump-us-nuclear-arms-treaty-russia) - Guardian, Oct 21 2018

Haley Condemns ‘Outrageous’ Russian Firing on Ukrainian Ships (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-26/haley-condemns-outrageous-russian-firing-on-ukrainian-ships) - Bloomberg, Nov 26 2018

2 Trump Moves Cost This Russian-American CEO $2.3B (https://www.forbes.com/sites/petercohan/2019/01/14/2-trump-moves-cost-this-russian-american-ceo-2-3b/#25932d3018af) - Forbes, Jan 14 2019

When one adds up all those actions one can only find that Trump cares more about Russia, than about the U.S. and its NATO allies. Only with Trump being under Putin's influence, knowingly or unwittingly, could he end up doing Russia so many favors.

Not.". :har::har::har::har::har:

Like I said before the largest group of conspiracy theorists in the U.S are minions of the Democrat Party.

[Skybird]

I was one of those who laughed at Trump when he accused us the European to be to independent on Russia gas and oil.

Markus
I underestimated the danger in it. Hell knows what devil was riding me. Not proud of it, definitely not. Big failure of mine and most of us over here.

But at least I am willing to learn the lesson, and doing so far beyond the imminent context. In my defence I also say regarding China however I have given up any illusions I might have had many many years ago aleady, and since years I am already against how far this project "globalization" has been pushed.

[tmccarthy]

https://youtu.be/2QgLKnT_IRo

https://youtu.be/KyWtRDtx99U

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yLb8JjXZapY

[Jimbuna]

Russian troops are being ousted from Severodonetsk despite "a tenfold advantage of the enemy in artillery", Ukraine's military intelligence chief says.

Severodonetsk is a strategically important city in the eastern Donbas region of Ukraine.

UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Ukraine’s President Zelensky have spoken to talk about unblocking Ukrainian ports.

Russian state media has confirmed the death of one of Moscow's top generals during heavy fighting in the eastern Donbas region.

The UK has announced that it is sending its first long-range missiles to Ukraine.

The news came as Vladimir Putin warned of more attacks in Ukraine if the West sends long-range weapons to Kyiv.

[Jimbuna]

Lavrov's plane refused permission to fly to Serbia

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has cancelled his visit to Serbia.

Several neighbouring countries prevented his plane from passing through their airspace by refusing to authorise the "overflight", officials said.

Russian news agencies quoted ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova as saying: "The Russian delegation should have arrived in Belgrade for talks. But the EU and Nato member countries closed their airspace."

"Russian diplomacy has not yet learned how to teleport," a Russian diplomatic source told news agency Interfax.

Lavrov says he will now invite his Serbian counterpart Nikola Selakovic to visit him in Moscow, adding: "No one will be able to destroy our relations with Serbia".

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gfq1QdnYubA

[Jimbuna]

Ukrainian forces are outnumbered in Severodonetsk but are holding out, Ukraine's president says.

Volodymyr Zelensky insists his troops have "every chance" of fighting back in the key eastern city.

Severodonetsk is a strategically important city in the Donbas region, where Russia has focused its offensive.

Meanwhile, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Zelensky have spoken to talk about unblocking Ukrainian ports.

Zelensky says as many as 75 million tonnes of grain could still be stuck in Ukraine in the autumn if Russia's blockade continues.

Russian state media has confirmed the death of one of Moscow's top generals during heavy fighting in the eastern Donbas region.

The UK has announced that it is sending its first long-range missiles to Ukraine.

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_iZmFum_mrA

[Jimbuna]

Russian attacks on Severodonetsk and Lysychansk in the Donbas region has turned them into “dead cities”, Ukraine's President Zelensky tells journalists.

During his nightly address he said that his troops still had “every chance” of holding Severodonetsk despite being outnumbered by Russian forces.

Severodonetsk is a strategically important city in the Donbas region, where Russia has focused its offensive over recent weeks.

The bodies of some Ukrainian fighters killed at the Azovstal steelworks have been handed over to Kyiv, families of Ukraine's Azov unit say.

Meanwhile, Russia's UN ambassador has walked out of a Security Council meeting after his country was blamed for causing a global food crisis.

European Council President Charles Michel said Russia was using food supplies as a "stealth missile" against the developing world.

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fjqGGrIT8Gg

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IOmHTEO-ms8

[Catfish]

The Russian soldiers refusing to fight in Ukraine:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61607184

[Skybird]

When looking at this war, nobody with a sane mind could have a doubt anymore that drones and missiles are the future of "mechanised" warfare. And I think if an enemy has access to weapons like these Western systems, than even Western modern tanks and platforms would be rendered outdated. Its like in past centuries, when heavy knights were rendered obsolete by archers with Bodkins arrowheads, and xbows, cavallary turning from heavy to light and then got smashed by light tanks, and so forth. An old pattern. I think the age of heavy armoured tanks is kind of coming to an end.
I would conclude something comparable on heavy warships for surface combat, and maybe even carriers.

The future seems to be agile, small platforms, lightly armoured and armed with drones and missiles.

Too many Western conceptions are unproven now, since they never were tested since WW2 against a foe on same technological level (which Iraq and Vietnam were not).

[Skybird]

FOCUS:


Ralph Thiele, Chairman of the Political-Military Society and President of EuroDefense Germany, takes a critical view of Ukraine's possible accession to the EU and NATO. "Ukraine was, after all, a very difficult state, key words being corruption and the mafia," says the security expert in an interview with "ntv." "The mafia is still active, for example, in selling the small arms that we supply to Ukraine. That's a real problem."

It's also problematic, he said, because it contradicts the principled ideas of the EU and NATO. "The basic idea in neither the EU nor NATO is, after all, that we take in problem children," Thiele explains. There is something "psychological about putting Ukraine on the list of candidates. But there is factual work to be done to bring it into a receptive state."

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)

[Dargo]

Poland will supply Ukraine with 56 Krab howitzers, this will be in the largest contract between Warsaw and Kyiv in 30 years which was announced by Polish Ministry of Defense. The firing range of howitzers is about 40 kilometers. 18 howitzers have already been sent to Ukraine.

[Catfish]

FOCUS:
[I]Ralph Thiele, Chairman of the Political-Military Society and President of EuroDefense Germany, takes a critical view of Ukraine's possible accession to the EU and NATO. [...]."
It's also problematic, he said, because it contradicts the principled ideas of the EU and NATO. "The basic idea in neither the EU nor NATO is, after all, that we take in problem children," Thiele explains. There is something "psychological about putting Ukraine on the list of candidates. But there is factual work to be done to bring it into a receptive state."

The principled ideas of the EU are not that of NATO, i take it when the war stops Ukraine will be allowed to join NATO. Which maybe is why Putin will not want it to end.
EU is a different question, joining or not the EU wil spend some money to help Ukraine build up its infrastructure again.

[Catfish]

I heard Claudia Roth has visited Kyiv yesterday, and another russian general was killed.
Must have underestimated her :hmmm:

[Skybird]

I do not take it for granted that Ukraine, if it survives the war as a nation, automatically will be welcomed into NATO. That would be a decision that gets not vetoed by a single memberstate, and the structural problems that may concern the EU, also apply for NATO.

[Catfish]

Some possible outcomes
1. The war will not stop until Putin has "deleted" (as he said) the whole of Ukraine, which then belongs to Russia.
2. There is a truce and Ukraine does not join NATO, in which case Russia will attack again in 4-5 years.
3. There is a truce and without being at war anymore Ukraine is able to join NATO. In which case Russia will not try to attack it.
4. Russia is driven out from Ukraine, but keeps the Crimea. Russia will try to get the rest of Ukraine in 4-5 years.
5. Putin is so mad that he will start a nuclear war against the west.

[Skybird]

^ That are reasons why you want it in NATO. But I was more about the likelihood of this becoming real.

Oligarchs, corruption, mafia need to get brought down down in the Ukraine. As far as we can, we should help here, but in principle, that is the Ukrainians' very own job, naturally.

During this time phase, we can and should also help to arm it up. But critical technology can only be delivered ,of course, if corruption and the mafia play no role anymore. We do not want our modern miltech ending up on the international black market - or in Russian or Chinese laboratories. And we do not want our aid payments ending up in the pockets of dubious men in the shades.

If these conditions are met, we can think about giving Ukraine NATO mmemberhsip. It Turkey agbrees. And Hungary. And maybe a coupel of others who will use the oppoprutnity to blackmail thealliance for theri own advanatges.

Concerns on Russian interest are exactly not on my mind anymore. Russia has lost any right to demand from us to care for its face, its interests, its opinion of us. So, what Russia thinks and wants I would not base decisions on anymore. But of course we must always try to guess what their reacitons will be to our actions. Anticipation. And for these we then must actively prepare. That is not he same like appeasing them and not doing what they could feel "provoked" by. We do our thing. But we prepare ourselves just in case somebody does not like what we do. But doing it anyway we must, should and hopefully will. Evertyhing else is an unsubstantial bluff by us. And if we get called for cards, we lose. So, no bluffing, please, but robust fundaments in preparing for the worst case. BTW, most times Russia would win a game of bluffs against Europe anyway. So, using bluffs only is not recommended. We must be able to set up threats - and being capable to fill them with all life and realsie them, if need be. Currently, we are very far away from that.

[August]

I heard Claudia Roth has visited Kyiv yesterday, and another russian general was killed.
Must have underestimated her :hmmm:


:haha:

[Jimbuna]

Russia dismisses concerns that its invasion of Ukraine has created a global food crisis.

Foreign minister Sergei Lavrov holds talks in Turkey as pressure mounts on Russia to end its blockade of Ukrainian ports.

Italy's foreign minister says "blocking grain exports means holding hostage and condemning to death millions of children, women and men"

Lavrov says the onus is on Ukraine to de-mine waters around its ports to let ships set sail safely.

But Ukraine fears this could make it more vulnerable to attacks from the sea - and says any moves to unfreeze its ports must not hinder its security.

Meanwhile, more than 1,000 Ukrainian soldiers - captured in Mariupol - have been transferred to Russia, according to Russian state media.

Ukrainian defences are "holding" in the key eastern city of Severodonetsk, UK military intelligences says, despite attacks from Russians in three directions.

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LC6eSrudy4o

[Dargo]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tJYk82K0wR0

The Ukrainian military opted to reinforce the Sievierodonetsk garrison and continue holding the ground in costly urban warfare, where Russia struggles to maintain its combat advantage over Ukraine. According to experts, the successful Ukrainian counterattacks are a new indication of declining Russian combat power, despite the Kremlin’s massive concentration of forces in the area. But heavy fighting continues and while Russia is running out of steam, the situation in the area remains very close to critical.

The best way for Ukraine to combat the Russians in the Donbas is to take dispersed action in the event of a Russian attack on the ground, it is the best way to stop that Russian steamroller. At least it's better than waiting in your trench so always attacking somewhere else and delivering blows with small units around that Russian steamroller, Ukraine must be mobile. Compare it to an elephant being attacked by a swarm of bees.

After Sievierodonetsk the Russians need to take Lysychansk they must advance over open terrain, then cross the Siverskyi Donets River and advance to ground 150 meters higher even with artillery and air support that's a real challenge, especially against an entrenched defender.

[Dargo]

Russia demands grain shipments from Ukraine be checked for weapons Russia is making demands before it allows grain shipments from Ukraine across the Black Sea. For example, Foreign Minister Lavrov wants grain shipments to be checked for weapons. The Kremlin is also demanding that the West ease sanctions against Russia. President Putin insists that these sanctions are the reason that grain supplies to the world market are blocked. But the trade in raw materials for food is not covered by the sanctions the West has imposed against Russia.

President of the European Council Charles Michel underlined this again today. "The Kremlin is using food supplies as a weapon and wrapping its actions in Soviet-style lies," the president said.

[mapuc]

Russia demands grain shipments from Ukraine be checked for weapons Russia is making demands before it allows grain shipments from Ukraine across the Black Sea. For example, Foreign Minister Lavrov wants grain shipments to be checked for weapons. The Kremlin is also demanding that the West ease sanctions against Russia. President Putin insists that these sanctions are the reason that grain supplies to the world market are blocked. But the trade in raw materials for food is not covered by the sanctions the West has imposed against Russia.

President of the European Council Charles Michel underlined this again today. "The Kremlin is using food supplies as a weapon and wrapping its actions in Soviet-style lies," the president said.

Your post reminded me of Jims post, which are about the same issue

https://www.subsim.com/radioroom/showpost.php?p=2812950&postcount=4448

Markus

[Dargo]

Russian soldiers in Ukraine are shocked by the summer heat they experience in their autumn uniforms. :D
https://i.postimg.cc/W3qFs7bN/FUvgy1-QWIAA1-ZLB.png
Ukrainian climate an additional enemy is the Ukrainian summer, a pruning hot season with the long slow shudder of a sweltering wind. There is hardly any cooling, labor costs much more energy as a result, soldiers must rest on grass and grain that glows with the sun. Ukraine lends itself very poorly to a major offensive. In short, Russian troops are going to have a rough time this summer. ~Curzio Malaparte (1898-1957)

[August]

Russia demands grain shipments from Ukraine be checked for weapons Russia is making demands before it allows grain shipments from Ukraine across the Black Sea. For example, Foreign Minister Lavrov wants grain shipments to be checked for weapons. The Kremlin is also demanding that the West ease sanctions against Russia. President Putin insists that these sanctions are the reason that grain supplies to the world market are blocked. But the trade in raw materials for food is not covered by the sanctions the West has imposed against Russia.

President of the European Council Charles Michel underlined this again today. "The Kremlin is using food supplies as a weapon and wrapping its actions in Soviet-style lies," the president said.




They're not even good at it or it would be plausible. We're talking about grain exports, not imports. How many weapons does Russia think Ukraine will be smuggling out of the country?

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jCnjH7ieOSw

[Dargo]

They're not even good at it or it would be plausible. We're talking about grain exports, not imports. How many weapons does Russia think Ukraine will be smuggling out of the country?And tomorrow Lavrov will deny he said this, we know Russian lingo also heard Russia wants to export Ukraine grain via a Russian (Ukrainian)occupied port yeah sure the klepto they can operate than and blame Ukraine for it

[Dargo]

Russia says President Zelenskyy’s demand for them to withdraw behind the February 24th line is ‘not serious’. This proves Russia remains focused on war, not diplomacy, and sends a clear message to the world, Russia’s path to the negotiating table lies on the battleground.

[Dargo]

Draft law on the abolition of Russia's recognition of Lithuania's independence was submitted to Russian Duma council of Soviet Union wasn't authorized to decide on recognition of Lithuania as an independent state in 1991, author of the law, Yevgeny Fedorov claimed. LOL the butthurt is strong in Russia

[Dargo]

Belarus bluff? Putin’s only ally sparks fears of possible new Kyiv offensive
Belarus announced the start of major nationwide military exercises on June 7. The drills, which will involve all branches of the Belarusian armed forces, are reportedly designed to prepare the country for the transition “from peacetime to wartime.” These new exercises form part of a recent pattern of heightened military mobilization in southern Belarus that has fueled speculation over the possibility of a renewed cross-border offensive into northern Ukraine as part of Russia’s ongoing invasion... https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/belarusalert/belarus-bluff-putins-only-ally-sparks-fears-of-possible-new-kyiv-offensive/

[mapuc]

Draft law on the abolition of Russia's recognition of Lithuania's independence was submitted to Russian Duma council of Soviet Union wasn't authorized to decide on recognition of Lithuania as an independent state in 1991, author of the law, Yevgeny Fedorov claimed. LOL the butthurt is strong in Russia

Are they seriously thinking about taking Lithuania by force ?

They, the Russian, must know it means war with Nato, a war they will lose

Markus

[Dargo]

Are they seriously thinking about taking Lithuania by force ?

They, the Russian, must know it means war with Nato, a war they will lose

MarkusNah only bluff to spark fear and trying to divide the west... failed stupid Russian losers they not so off this world

[mapuc]

Nah only bluff to spark fear and trying to divide the west... failed stupid Russian losers they not so off this world

I hope you are right it's only a bluff.

You answer made me remember what some expert on psychology said in a Danish newspaper Putin lives in his own little imaginary world.

Markus

[Dargo]

Russian airline "Aeroflot" will keep records of toilet paper on flights to Turkey. Employees are forbidden to leave extra rolls of paper in places that are accessible to passengers, accord The Moscow Times

Sanctions have affected 87% of businesses in Russia at the same time, more than 30% of businesses in Russia are not experiencing an economic downturn.
https://i.postimg.cc/wv0yz5PM/FUu-Rk-TOWUAASOTY.jpg

[Dargo]

I hope you are right it's only a bluff.

You answer made me remember what some expert on psychology said in a Danish newspaper Putin lives in his own little imaginary world.

MarkusPutin had the time to do all those threats he said he would do in +100 days Putin has made the mistake to think he could take on the west, so he is back at useless bullying others to save his ass.

[Dargo]

Russian army base scrambling for Ukraine war supplies, locals and soldiers say

Moscow’s campaign has been slowed by problems with getting food, fuel and essential services to its troops, which are regrouping around Valuyki in the North
Rather than the swift victory Vladimir Putin intended, the Russian president is entrenched in a grinding conflict, inflicting a heavy death toll on his troops

... https://www.scmp.com/news/world/russia-central-asia/article/3180934/russian-army-base-scrambling-ukraine-war-supplies

[Dargo]

It now turns out that Germany won’t send the M270 MLRs Scholz promised to Ukraine until much later than thought. The Germans say the weapons system lacks a software update, making it possible to fire American and British missiles. The transfer “won’t happen before winter.”

No surprise: another promised German weapons delivery has been delayed.

[Catfish]

^ God f'n damn :nope:


Meanwhile Russia is trying to hijack a german satellite telescope:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-trying-to-hijack-german-telescope/ar-AAYdxP1?ocid=Peregrine&cvid=9b8422d5ec56464581cdb9cd73f51c97

[Skybird]

Since 11 weeks Germany has delivered practically nothing to Ukraine. That doe snot stop Bubble-Olaf from - wrongly - claiming during a meeting withz plltical leaders from POoland and the Baltic states some days ago that nobody dleivers morer and doe smoire for sUkrioane, than Germany, with the exception of the US.

Skunk. Endlessly he excretes his lying weasel words. Like he

always did in his political "career" since he was mayor of Hamburg. He was no mayor - he was a total dud. Always playing foul. Always being extremely blasé.

Since mid-to-late March, the Chancellor's Office has been actively putting the brakes on any arms deliveries, letting agreements with allies go nowhere. Instead: Scholz's endless verbiage. The Greeks have learned the lesson: they have suspended their announced deliveries of armored vehicles to Ukraine as long as the promised German replacement tanks are not in their yard. Somehow there seems to be no basis for trust anymore? :hmmm:

From May 29th.

https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/video239062997/Kritik-gegen-Kanzler-Scholz-Trotz-Versprechungen-liefert-Deutschland-seit-neun-Wochen-kaum-Waffen.html

[mapuc]

Since 11 weeks Germany has delivered practically nothing to Ukraine. That doe snot stop Bubble-Olaf from - wrongly - claiming during a meeting withz plltical leaders from POoland and the Baltic states some days ago that nobody dleivers morer and doe smoire for sUkrioane, than Germany, with the exception of the US.

Skunk. Endlessly he excretes his lying weasel words. Like he

always did in his political "career" since he was mayor of Hamburg. He was no mayor - he was a total dud. Always playing foul. Always being extremely blasé.

Since mid-to-late March, the Chancellor's Office has been actively putting the brakes on any arms deliveries, letting agreements with allies go nowhere. Instead: Scholz's endless verbiage. The Greeks have learned the lesson: they have suspended their announced deliveries of armored vehicles to Ukraine as long as the promised German replacement tanks are not in their yard. Somehow there seems to be no basis for trust anymore? :hmmm:

From May 29th.

https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/video239062997/Kritik-gegen-Kanzler-Scholz-Trotz-Versprechungen-liefert-Deutschland-seit-neun-Wochen-kaum-Waffen.html

I get the impression that Germany is not helping Ukraine. They are not fighting them either- It's difficult to see where Germany stands in this Russian invasion war against Ukraine.

Markus

[August]

Belarus bluff? Putin’s only ally sparks fears of possible new Kyiv offensive
Belarus announced the start of major nationwide military exercises on June 7. The drills, which will involve all branches of the Belarusian armed forces, are reportedly designed to prepare the country for the transition “from peacetime to wartime.” These new exercises form part of a recent pattern of heightened military mobilization in southern Belarus that has fueled speculation over the possibility of a renewed cross-border offensive into northern Ukraine as part of Russia’s ongoing invasion... https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/belarusalert/belarus-bluff-putins-only-ally-sparks-fears-of-possible-new-kyiv-offensive/




Didn't Belarus try to participate in the original invasion only to have it's own soldiers tell them to sit on it and rotate?

[Skybird]

I get the impression that Germany is not helping Ukraine. They are not fighting them either- It's difficult to see where Germany stands in this Russian invasion war against Ukraine.

Markus
Oh, its easy where Germany stands. Bubble-Olaf even, word-for-word, said it openly on TV: "I am afraid of a nuclear war". As a leader of a nation, you cannot be so ifantile to put something like this so blatantly open on display, he is an idiot. Note how cool America reacted instead: they did not even care to react in any way to this threat, did not honour it with an own comment. They know that Russia knows damn well that there are 3 nations in NATO having nukes, too. And Britian, when being confronted with the recent threat that Russia could start targetting more unusual targets if it sends certain kinds of weapons (as if they do not already bomb randomly unusual taregets by princxiple) reacted by announcing that these weapons now would be send in even bigger quantities.

But lil' Olaf sits all alone at home and is afraid, and he tells the Kremelin that he is. Stupid idiot. On that day when he did that, the Kremlin opened champagne bottles.

Note the weasel words Bubble-Olaf uses. He does not say "The ukraine must win and Russia must loose." Nor does he say the opposite, that Ukraine must loose and Russia should win (although in a way that is what Germany and France want). What he says, is this, repeatedly, and I try to translate it word by word: "Ukraine must not lose and Russia must not win this war". Weasel tiptoeing around in the shades! You do not get him to say that the Ukraine has any right to win the war, you can press him directly, ask him to his face, leave him no space to evade, he will not say that Ukriane should win the war and that Russia should loose it, ums Verrecken nicht. Its very clear, the Germans do not want Ukraine to score a clear win against Russia, and I fear they do their part to help for this diffuse outcome. They want the same like 2014, that Ukraine gives up land for "peace". France too, btw, they too have many concerned Russia-understanders who are worried to leave Russia no chance to save its precious little barbar face.

Meanwhile, Medwedev at every opportunity spills his blatant HATE on the west openly all over he channels where they broadcast him. Its not hostile rhetoric, its not just a verbal tool - the HATE is absolutely real and is felt with all his heart.

Even before the war, Bubble-Olaf shone with his concept of strategic ambiguity, claiming that keeping the Kremlin in the dark about Western reactions would help keep it from attacking. He only overlooked the fact that the West would have had to show an ultimate military force, the use of which would have been a threat - then - and only then! - that is a strategic ambiguity about which the Kremlin should have racked its brains. And the economic reaction element: we know that the Kremlin was already surprised by Europe's reactions, had not expected them. So one wonders what would have happened if little Olaf, instead of his strategic ambiguity (which was in fact a lazy excuse for doing what he prefers to do, namely never committing himself to anything, thus avoiding the risk of being held responsible for it later - his great fear), had said plainly and clearly how tough the economic sanctions would be. Maybe that would have made the price seem too expensive? But Olaf did not want to name a price. There he is attackable because he named this and no other, lower or higher price. But no, not wioth this little weasel. Weasels do not do egg-dances, but just tiny-steps stepdances between the eggs, and only in the shadows of night.

To simply spin word phrases and present them as a substitute for non-existent own strength and determination - that's a hollow bluff, and little Olaf has been blown up with it with drum and trumpets. The garlands of words he now brandishes are simply an insidious conspiracy. According to his grandiose self-evidence, no one but the U.S. provides more aid and arms supplies than Germany. Note that the loud thunder of words "1 billion for the Bundeswehr plus 2% per anno!" already has been washed down, too, the 1 bn now will be counted and used for reaching that 2% goal. That cna work only for aroudn 5 years. then the money is gone, the additiuonal equiopoment will be needed to get constantly financed and maintained, but a fincial fundament a sprmsied has been deleted again already at the very bgeinning of the "new era" for the bundeswehr. He claiums the Bundeswehr in a few yeras will be the "biggest and strongest army in all Europe". I am not kidding, he used those words! Somebody should give him a link to Wikipedia, that alone would be good enough to do the counting. He would be surprised.

And this - militarily washed-up - Germany wants to be in charge of the NATO intervention forces in Eastern Europe...? Cklaims to be a ready guarantor os security for the Ukraine?



Großes Maul und nichts dahinter. World, you are warned of this Germany. DO NOT TRUST ITS BIGMOUTHED WORDS.


If Biden and Johnson also step down or are stepped down, then it looks bleak for Ukraine.

[mapuc]

....and our media and politician here in Denmark and Sweden look up to him...almost worship him.

Another thing which we may have discussed earlier-The fact that none of Putins closest colleague dare to speak against him or tell him the truth.
In a Danish article it was said The Russian Generals knew before the war that the Russian army isn't that great and it has many problems, but none of them dared to say this openly to Putin.

Because the take-down of Putin has to come from the inner circle or from FSB.

Markus

[Skybird]

After the 4 German MARS II/HIMARS systems were reported top get delayed until end of this year, now the delivery of the IRIS-T SAM system is reported to get delayed until Decembre, too.

Mind you, not even the Bundeswehr has IRIS-T.


"No one supplies on a similar scale as Germany does." - original quote Olaf Scholz.



Maybe somebody should explain him the difference between the deed that got done, and the claim that did so far nothing. Germany has deloivered small callibre ammuntio9n, hand grenades, AT mkissiles, satchel charges, helmets, ignitors for cmap fires. All in the first 3-4 weeks - and since then nothing but big words. Claims and intentions do not count as deeds done.

[Jimbuna]

Oh, its easy where Germany stands. Bubble-Olaf even, word-for-word, said it openly on TV: "I am afraid of a nuclear war". As a leader of a nation, you cannot be so ifantile to put something like this so blatantly open on display, he is an idiot. Note how cool America reacted instead: they did not even care to react in any way to this threat, did not honour it with an own comment. They know that Russia knows damn well that there are 3 nations in NATO having nukes, too. And Britian, when being confronted with the recent threat that Russia could start targetting more unusual targets if it sends certain kinds of weapons (as if they do not already bomb randomly unusual taregets by princxiple) reacted by announcing that these weapons now would be send in even bigger quantities.

But lil' Olaf sits all alone at home and is afraid, and he tells the Kremelin that he is. Stupid idiot. On that day when he did that, the Kremlin opened champagne bottles.

Note the weasel words Bubble-Olaf uses. He does not say "The ukraine must win and Russia must loose." Nor does he say the opposite, that Ukraine must loose and Russia should win (although in a way that is what Germany and France want). What he says, is this, repeatedly, and I try to translate it word by word: "Ukraine must not lose and Russia must not win this war". Weasel tiptoeing around in the shades! You do not get him to say that the Ukraine has any right to win the war, you can press him directly, ask him to his face, leave him no space to evade, he will not say that Ukriane should win the war and that Russia should loose it, ums Verrecken nicht. Its very clear, the Germans do not want Ukraine to score a clear win against Russia, and I fear they do their part to help for this diffuse outcome. They want the same like 2014, that Ukraine gives up land for "peace". France too, btw, they too have many concerned Russia-understanders who are worried to leave Russia no chance to save its precious little barbar face.

Meanwhile, Medwedev at every opportunity spills his blatant HATE on the west openly all over he channels where they broadcast him. Its not hostile rhetoric, its not just a verbal tool - the HATE is absolutely real and is felt with all his heart.

Even before the war, Bubble-Olaf shone with his concept of strategic ambiguity, claiming that keeping the Kremlin in the dark about Western reactions would help keep it from attacking. He only overlooked the fact that the West would have had to show an ultimate military force, the use of which would have been a threat - then - and only then! - that is a strategic ambiguity about which the Kremlin should have racked its brains. And the economic reaction element: we know that the Kremlin was already surprised by Europe's reactions, had not expected them. So one wonders what would have happened if little Olaf, instead of his strategic ambiguity (which was in fact a lazy excuse for doing what he prefers to do, namely never committing himself to anything, thus avoiding the risk of being held responsible for it later - his great fear), had said plainly and clearly how tough the economic sanctions would be. Maybe that would have made the price seem too expensive? But Olaf did not want to name a price. There he is attackable because he named this and no other, lower or higher price. But no, not wioth this little weasel. Weasels do not do egg-dances, but just tiny-steps stepdances between the eggs, and only in the shadows of night.

To simply spin word phrases and present them as a substitute for non-existent own strength and determination - that's a hollow bluff, and little Olaf has been blown up with it with drum and trumpets. The garlands of words he now brandishes are simply an insidious conspiracy. According to his grandiose self-evidence, no one but the U.S. provides more aid and arms supplies than Germany. Note that the loud thunder of words "1 billion for the Bundeswehr plus 2% per anno!" already has been washed down, too, the 1 bn now will be counted and used for reaching that 2% goal. That cna work only for aroudn 5 years. then the money is gone, the additiuonal equiopoment will be needed to get constantly financed and maintained, but a fincial fundament a sprmsied has been deleted again already at the very bgeinning of the "new era" for the bundeswehr. He claiums the Bundeswehr in a few yeras will be the "biggest and strongest army in all Europe". I am not kidding, he used those words! Somebody should give him a link to Wikipedia, that alone would be good enough to do the counting. He would be surprised.

And this - militarily washed-up - Germany wants to be in charge of the NATO intervention forces in Eastern Europe...? Cklaims to be a ready guarantor os security for the Ukraine?



Großes Maul und nichts dahinter. World, you are warned of this Germany. DO NOT TRUST ITS BIGMOUTHED WORDS.


If Biden and Johnson also step down or are stepped down, then it looks bleak for Ukraine.

Couldn't have put it better myself :yep:

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m9NmBgTx5sc

[Jimbuna]

There's no let up in the battle for the eastern Ukrainian city of Severodonetsk with street fighting and heavy artillery fire.

President Volodymyr Zelensky says the fate of his country's eastern Donbas region may be decided in the battle.

Meanwhile, the UN's chief warns the war's impact on the world's "food security, energy and finance" is "severe"

António Guterres says he wants to find a deal "that allows for the safe export" of Ukrainian-produced food through the Black Sea.

Ukraine's President Zelensky has called for Russia to be expelled from the UN's Food and Agriculture Organization as a result of blockades at Ukrainian ports.

Russia announces it does not expect Gazprom to cut gas supplies to any more European customers as its roubles scheme - set up in response to Western sanctions - is functioning as intended.

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bpYFhFnlW1M

[Dargo]

Kremlin Receives Almost 42,000 Complaints on Missing Ukraine Soldiers

The Kremlin received nearly 42,000 complaints in April from the relatives of soldiers missing in Ukraine, investigative outlet iStories reported Thursday. Official data revealed that President Vladimir Putin’s administration received 41,666 requests related to missing or captured soldiers... https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/06/09/kremlin-receives-almost-42000-complaints-on-missing-ukraine-soldiers-investigation-a77951

[Dargo]

Severodonetsk commander talks about house-to-house fighting in a rare update on the battle in Severodonetsk, the commander of a Ukrainian battalion says the Ukrainians are forcing the Russians into street battles. "Yesterday was a successful day for us. We launched a counteroffensive, and in some places we managed to push them back two streets. In other places they pushed us back, but only a building or two."

The Russians are said to have suffered hefty losses. "If it went like this every day, all this would be over soon," he says. But he also says his men suffer greatly from the lack of heavy weapons with which to answer the Russian artillery fire. "Even without these systems, we are holding up well. We were ordered to hold our position and that is what we are doing. It's incredible what surgeons do to save soldiers' lives without the proper resources."

[Jimbuna]

Two Britons, Aiden Aslin and Shaun Pinner are sentenced to death alongside Moroccan national Saaudun Brahim.

They appeared in a court in the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic, held by pro-Russian rebels and not internationally recognised.

Both British men were serving members of Ukraine’s armed forces.

Downing Street says it's deeply concerned and prisoners of war shouldn't be exploited for political purposes.

[Dargo]

Netherlands also supplies drones to Ukraine, accidentally revealed :D

The Ministry of Defense has also supplied drones to Ukraine, in addition to all kinds of other military equipment. This information was "accidentally" included in the Spring Memorandum, Minister Ollongren reported today in a letter to the Lower House. The drones in question are not armed drones; the Dutch army does not yet have them.

NATO had previously asked member states to be very cautious about sharing information about military support to Ukraine. The Cabinet did not want to make the delivery of drones public, but for unclear reasons the information has been included in the Spring Memorandum.
Over 130 million euros in aid

Moreover, the memo also mentioned an incorrect amount. Defense reported in the Spring Memorandum that at that time 73 million euros worth of military goods, drones and field hospitals had been delivered. A Defense spokesperson told NOS that this was an "old amount."

In mid-May, when the Spring Memorandum was sent out, 102 million euros worth of military aid had already been sent to Ukraine. Ollongren now writes that the Netherlands has provided over 130.4 million euros in material support.

The Ministry of Defense cannot provide additional information on which drones were sent to Ukraine, and how many. Presumably they are reconnaissance drones.

More has also become known recently about the five armored howitzers that the Netherlands has pledged to Ukraine. These mobile artillery cannons, with a range of up to 50 kilometers, are not yet on their way to the battlefield.

Ukrainian soldiers are currently receiving training in Germany to operate the armored howitzers. When this process is completed and the armored vehicles go to Ukraine, Ollongren could not say yesterday in the House of Representatives. However, she did say that the training is going well.

When it was announced that the Netherlands was going to send armored howitzers, it was explicitly stated that it would take some time before they could be properly deployed. They are advanced weapons and there is a lot more to it than just learning to aim and shoot.

Since the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the West has been gradually supplying Kiev with heavier weapons. In the beginning, the Netherlands sent flak jackets, helmets and sniper rifles. As far as is known, the armored howitzers are the heaviest weapons that the Netherlands has promised Ukraine.

Recently, at NATO's request, much less has been disclosed about what military support member states are pledging or sending. On the one hand, to reduce the risk of further escalation of the conflict. On the other hand, to give Russia less insight into exactly what support Kiev is receiving.

[Dargo]

Ukraine will decide for itself when it is ready to resume talks with Russia and until then the Netherlands will continue to support Kiev militarily and politically, that emphasized Dutch Foreign Minister Hoekstra. According to him, it is important for the Netherlands to help Ukraine to appear as strong as possible on the battlefield, in order to subsequently acquire the strongest possible starting position once the talks are restarted. When that is, Kiev determines, Hoekstra underlined.

Ukraine stopped the talks because Russia did not put any serious proposals on the table, and because Ukraine was confronted with serious crimes against its own civilian population, Hoekstra said. At the same time, the minister underlined that President Zelensky also recognizes that there will come a time when negotiations will have to resume. Hoekstra dismissed the suggestion that some European countries, including France, are too anxious to "not humiliate" President Putin and to keep the conversation going. According to him, Europe is showing unity, although he acknowledged that it has taken "too long" for the seventh sanctions package to be finalized.

Asked about a future EU membership for Ukraine, Hoekstra said the Netherlands is waiting for the proposal of the European Commission. If it comes up with "a sensible opinion, you as the Netherlands must be prepared to look at it openly." According to him, it is a "human tendency" to say yes to everything when a country is fighting such a battle, but care remains necessary, Hoekstra said.

[Dargo]

'Ukraine loses 100 to 200 soldiers a day'

An advisor to President Zelensky says that lately, 100 to 200 Ukrainian soldiers are dying daily in the battle with the Russians. A few weeks back, according to Zelensky, there were 50 to 100 per day.

The death toll is rising rapidly because of the very heavy fighting in the Donbas, advisor Mychajlo Podoljak said in an interview with BBC Newshour https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/w172yfbzw86mbbl . He calls it a very unequal fight because Russia can use far more heavy weapons than Ukraine.

According to Podoljak, his country needs hundreds of artillery systems of the most powerful kind that the West can provide. "As long as Russia does not suffer a major defeat, no dialogue is possible, and they will continue to try to take parts of our country."

[mapuc]

Following hasn't been confirmed(Finding article or government information)

A convoy have left eastern USA heading for the Black Sea

It was someone who wrote this in a livestream from Ukraine.
I've tried to find any information about this..without any luck.
(He said the information was available on White House homepage)

Maybe it's on it's way to the Baltic sea ?

Biden & Co have lots of material they need to be transported to Poland and from there to Ukraine.

Markus

[Skybird]

A senior Ukrainian presidential aide has told the BBC that between 100 and 200 Ukrainian troops are being killed on the front line every day.

Mykhaylo Podolyak said Ukraine needed hundreds of Western artillery systems to level the playing field with Russia in the eastern Donbas region.

He also said Kyiv is not ready to resume peace talks with Moscow.

Ukrainian troops are under relentless bombardment as Russian forces attempt to take control of the whole of Donbas.

"The Russian forces have thrown pretty much everything non-nuclear at the front and that includes heavy artillery, multiple rocket launch systems and aviation," Mr Podolyak said.

He repeated Ukraine's appeal for more weapons from the West, saying that the "complete lack of parity" between the Russian and Ukrainian armies was the reason for Ukraine's heavy casualty rate.

"Our demands for artillery are not just some kind of whim... but an objective need when it comes to the situation on the battlefield," he said, adding that Ukraine needs 150 to 300 rocket launch systems to match Russia - a much higher number than it has received so far.

Mr Podolyak also said peace talks could only resume if Russia surrendered the territory it had gained since it invaded on 24 February.

Mr Podolyak's suggestion that 100 to 200 Ukrainian soldiers are dying each day is higher than previous estimates. On Thursday, Ukraine's Defence Minister, Oleksii Reznikov, said Ukraine was losing 100 soldiers a day, and 500 more were injured.

The differing casualty figures are a sign of how difficult it is to get precise information from the battlefield.

Despite the heavy losses, Mr Reznikov claimed that a high number of Russian soldiers are also being killed.

"The Kremlin continues to press by sheer mass, stumbles, faces strong rebuffs and suffers huge casualties," Mr Reznikov said. "But yet still has forces to advance in some parts of the front."

Similarly, Luhansk regional governor Sergei Gaidai said Russians were "dying like flies" but echoed Mr Podolyak's claim that Ukraine is facing difficulties with a "catastrophic" lack of artillery.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61742736

[Rockstar]

Europe has another war and once again the deaths of thousands of families, men, women and children are added to the already multi million number of deceased which have accumulated throughout the ages of European history. But it’s OK, it’s acceptable to them, because to Europeans it’s what they’ve always done.

When Europeans kill children it’s OK because it’s for only the most holy and righteous ideals, it’s for a political cause. :har:

[Reece]

? ? ? :hmmm:

[Skybird]

An Ukrainian general estimates the Russian have a numerical advantage in soldiers in the battlezones of Donbass of 5:1, and in artillery even 7:1. The losses of the ukrainians are estimated to be 100-200 per day - and that of the Russians' said to be 3-5 times as high. However, the attrition affects the ukrainians heavily, and Ukrainian military leaders and analysts from abroad say that currently a new big counter offensive is unlikely because the Ukrainian army simply is overexhausted and many fighters are at the end of their physical and psychological stamina. One must assume that this is exactly what the new Russian strategy of keeping up utmost pressure even when suffering desastrous own losses is aiming for. The Russians can afford these losses. The Ukrianians can't afford even their lower losses. Ever ylost artiollery piece counts several times more agaunst them mthna any Russian artillery piece lost.



The Ukrainians say they need hundreds more of artillery and MRLS systems to survive this war of attrition.
Belarus possibly prepares a late entry into the war. Maybe Lukashenko finally is pressed to pay tribuite to Putin'S help in cracking down ion the oppsoiton after the last elecitonf raud. Belarussian army is again amassing forces near the border to Ukraine. I think it is absolutely possible that Russia will sooner or later start a second attempt to conquer Kyiw - or obliterate it.

The Germans - babble on. No weapons delivered since 3 months. MARS II and IRIS-T delayed until Decembre. At least. The Greeks start to voice anger over the German delaying in the Ringtausch of IFVs. The same Mätzchen like with Poland, Slovenia, and others before. Germany's role does not stop to pout its nation to shame, I'm sorry to say. And it makes me sick and angry to see the slime at the top of the political hierarchy dripping off the table in greasy glutinous drops and ruining the carpet for everybody. Blasé and underhanded Scholz makes me sick.

Three days ago there was a merkel revival party on TV. A servile fan of hers "interviewed" her, first time since she left office, an evening-filling TV show. Conclusion: She was perfect. She knew Putin and had no illusions. She made nothing wrong, she made no mistakes, never. She said she sees no reason to excuse herself for anything. And the servile fanboy at her feet? Did not ask for the nculear exit. For the mass migration deaster. For the Euro debacle. The failed Minsk 2 agreement.

What a fake event. Its hopeless. Germany is lost. But at least now I know what the shine and choire of glorious holiness looks and sounds like. I'm blinded and my ears still ring.

[Dargo]

....and our media and politician here in Denmark and Sweden look up to him...almost worship him.

Another thing which we may have discussed earlier-The fact that none of Putins closest colleague dare to speak against him or tell him the truth.
In a Danish article it was said The Russian Generals knew before the war that the Russian army isn't that great and it has many problems, but none of them dared to say this openly to Putin.

Because the take-down of Putin has to come from the inner circle or from FSB.

Markus
Do not want to take the fun out of a good hanging, but Russian Generals have never successfully speak up against their leader, Stalin made sure that the army never could grasp any power for the FSB only low level circle is discussing Putin FSB people in real power are oki doki with Putin.

[Dargo]

Following hasn't been confirmed(Finding article or government information)

A convoy have left eastern USA heading for the Black Sea

It was someone who wrote this in a livestream from Ukraine.
I've tried to find any information about this..without any luck.
(He said the information was available on White House homepage)

Maybe it's on it's way to the Baltic sea ?

Biden & Co have lots of material they need to be transported to Poland and from there to Ukraine.

Markus

16 NATO Allies and partners take part in exercise BALTOPS 22 https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_196240.htm

[Dargo]

An Ukrainian general estimates the Russian have a numerical advantage in soldiers in the battlezones of Donbass of 5:1, and in artillery even 7:1. The losses of the ukrainians are estimated to be 100-200 per day - and that of the Russians' said to be 3-5 times as high. However, the attrition affects the ukrainians heavily, and Ukrainian military leaders and analysts from abroad say that currently a new big counter offensive is unlikely because the Ukrainian army simply is overexhausted and many fighters are at the end of their physical and psychological stamina. One must assume that this is exactly what the new Russian strategy of keeping up utmost pressure even when suffering desastrous own losses is aiming for. The Russians can afford these losses. The Ukrianians can't afford even their lower losses. Ever ylost artiollery piece counts several times more agaunst them mthna any Russian artillery piece lost.



The Ukrainians say they need hundreds more of artillery and MRLS systems to survive this war of attrition.
Belarus possibly prepares a late entry into the war. Maybe Lukashenko finally is pressed to pay tribuite to Putin'S help in cracking down ion the oppsoiton after the last elecitonf raud. Belarussian army is again amassing forces near the border to Ukraine. I think it is absolutely possible that Russia will sooner or later start a second attempt to conquer Kyiw - or obliterate it.

The main offensive is on the city of Severodonetsk Russia throws all their material and personnel on a city that is for 90% in rubble do not see any gain if they take that city and if they have it they need to cross the river Siversky Donets, cross open field and take highly fortified Lysychans'k fighting up hill. With the losses the Russians have now this only will rise greatly, one of the problem of Russia has is getting personnel, and they suck at street battles. Ukraine cannot win this in the long run without supply of heavy material, but they can still cause high losses to the Russians to keep Ukrainian ground as long as they can.

[Dargo]

Russian state is switched into its war mode. It is not a short-term military operation, it is a permanent war what Russians live Since Chechen wars in 1994-2009, Russia was involved in at least 3 wars: Georgia, Syria, Ukraine. Out of these three, every next one was more bloody and brutal, what is logical: barriers for violence have fallen in Russian society. Russians are not expecting a fast victory now the Russian concept of aggressive wars is extremely colonial. From the Russian perspective, it is logical to send “subhumans” to die on the front. In the current war, we see ethnic minorities over-represented among Russian troops their losses pro 100,000 are sometimes 100x higher in no war since Georgia 2008, Russia has reached its goals.

Tbilisi was not taken in 2008, Novorossia was not created in 2014-15, Kyiv was not taken in 2022. Did it stop Russia from further attacks? No! And this has its clear logic! As Russian wars are colonial, Russia gets stronger even after it doesn’t fulfill its goals. As Buryatia (occupied over 100 years ago) provided Russia with grinder meat, occupied Chechen Republic provided Russians with Kadyrovtsi - terror squads. The same happens now in “LDNR” Russians forcefully conscript every male in occupied Donetsk and Luhansk regions, and send them to death on the frontline. Males get arrested in the streets, put in uniforms, provided with a WWI rifle and send to the front. Russians don’t care how many Ukrainians will die. As Putin is a life-time dictator, his inability to occupy the whole Ukraine in 2014 was not a defeat, but just a delay. He has not lost his power, but got provided with strategically important Crimea (launch positions) and resources (grinder meat). Kherson expects the same.

In the WWII, Ukrainians were the most important manpower of Red Army. Soviet top ace Kozhedub, ace sniper Pavlichenko, ace pilot Amed-Khan were Ukrainians or Crimea Tatars. Moscow has occupied Ukraine, conscripted Ukrainians and sent them to death. This is what they do if now Russia will not suffer a full defeat, it will just wait a year, brainwash people in occupied territories and attack the rest of Ukraine again with more grinder meat (cannon fodder). And after it will repeat this trick with sending Kyiv and Vinnytsia to invade...

[Dargo]

Interview: Why Russia's 'Underperforming' Military Is Still Making Gains In Ukraine
Ukrainian forces are finding it hard to stave off Russian attacks in the center of the key battleground of Syevyerodonetsk, but Moscow still does not control the eastern city, regional officials say.

Syevyerodonetsk and its twin city Lysychansk, which lies across the Siverskiy Donets River, are strategically important in the Kremlin’s bid to capture Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region and the unfolding fight, which has already seen Russian troops take control of large portions of Syevyerodonetsk, could have an outsized influence on the next phase of the war.

Meanwhile, the flow of Western weapons to Kyiv continues, but Ukrainian officials have warned that greater and sustained quantities of equipment and aid are needed if they are to wield an advantage over Russian forces... https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-russian-underperforming-military-standish-interview/31891133.html

[Dargo]

Putin admits Ukraine invasion is an imperial war to “return” Russian land

Throughout the past few months, Vladimir Putin has offered up all manner of outlandish excuses for his invasion of Ukraine. At various different times he has blamed the war on everything from NATO expansion to imaginary Nazis, while also making completely unsubstantiated claims about Western plots to invade Russia and Ukrainian schemes to acquire nuclear weapons.

The reality, it now transpires, is considerably less elaborate and infinitely more chilling. Putin has launched the largest European conflict since WWII for the simple reason that he wants to conquer Ukraine. Inspired by the czars of old, Putin aims to crush his neighbor and incorporate it into a new Russian Empire... https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/putin-admits-ukraine-invasion-is-an-imperial-war-to-return-russian-land/

[mapuc]

^ This made me sad-It would mean we have to fight a war.

Markus

[Catfish]

Much better than i could have written this, very good take on the situation (unfortunately). Like i said before this is a long war that will last, and it will not stop in Ukraine. Or if, only for a short time.
So the logical goal has to be to stop Russia –

Meanwhile Putin has compared himself to Tsar Peter the Great.
https://nypost.com/2022/06/10/vladimir-putin-compares-himself-to-peter-the-great/

Putin only respects other "Sovereigns", all else countries are "colonies" free for the taking.

He has now directly threatened Sweden ??
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/18804673/ukraine-news-russia-war-live-putin-health-sweden/

I know it is "The Sun". But a quote from Putin ..

[Dargo]

https://i.postimg.cc/wTfq0dC7/FU5f-Zp-OWQAMwz1-C.png

[Dargo]

The second-in-command of Ukrainian military intelligence says Ukraine is on the losing side due to lack of heavy weapons. To keep the Russians at bay, the country depends almost entirely on weapons from Western countries. "Now everything depends on what the West gives us," says Vadym Skibitsky in an interview with The Guardian (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/10/were-almost-out-of-ammunition-and-relying-on-western-arms-says-ukraine). Ukraine is expected to submit a list of requirements to NATO next week. That will again include advanced missile systems.

Skibitsky says the Russians have dug in at the front in the south. He reckons the Russians will try again to take Odessa, Zaporizhzhya and Dnipro, once they have full control of the Donbas. "Their goal is all of Ukraine and more."

It is possible that Russia will hold back for a while to entice the West to lift sanctions, Skibitsky believes. "But then they will start all over again. Look after the last eight years." That last one is a reference to the annexation of Crimea and the start of the war in the Donbas, in 2014.

[Catfish]

Re Donbas, Ukraine killing "russians" there, ukrainian "mass killings" and the poor harrassed "russian" people of Donbas "calling for help".

We understand this perfectly now.

Putin’s confession of land seizures and comparing himself with Peter the Great prove:
there was no ‘conflict’, only the country’s bloody seizure under contrived pretexts of people’s genocide,” said Mykhailo Podolyak.
“We should not talk about [Russia] ‘saving face’, but about its immediate de-imperialisation.”

[Dargo]

Serbia has arrested Andriy Naumov, ex head of the security service of Ukraine in the Kherson region that is under Russian occupation now. He left Ukraine in hours before the Russian invasion and was accused of treason. He was arrested having over €600k, ~$125K and diamonds. The reason why Russia was able to take Kherson so quickly, advance to Mariupol and lay siege there was treason within the Ukrainian intelligence and possibly (!) some elements of the army.