Here we go again-Ukraine once again

[Andreas86]

Those ARE pretty rough seas...for a Schwimmwagen.

:haha::haha:

Here is a very short clip that was released of the Moskva burning, it seems at least one of the pictures was a still from this video:

https://t.me/censor_net/11448

[Skybird]

https://beta.dw.com/en/does-russian-commander-in-ukraine-deserve-his-bloody-reputation/a-61451448


Maybe one can read from this, that the new Russian top general is not that much more competent than his predecessors as was initially said.

[Dargo]

https://beta.dw.com/en/does-russian-commander-in-ukraine-deserve-his-bloody-reputation/a-61451448


Maybe one can read from this, that the new Russian top general is not that much more competent than his predecessors as was initially said.

It is hard to know if Dvornikov's experience in Syria will make any difference in Ukraine, ISW observers said. The fact that he was the first Russian commander to serve there and had to set up coalition operations, including an air base, as well as his experience in urban warfare in Aleppo, might help, they noted.

Then again, the nature of the confrontation in Ukraine is very different. Ukraine has a wide array of anti-aircraft and other advanced munitions, as well as its own air force.

"No appointment of any general can erase the fact that Russia has already faced a strategic failure in Ukraine," White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said on Sunday of the Dvornikov appointment.

Russian forces are apparently demoralized and the army's logistics in disarray. The official death toll for Russians killed in Syria since 2015 is 112. But in Ukraine, tens of thousands of Russian soldiers are thought to have died in just six weeks of fighting.

"The nature of the confrontations in Syria depended on violent air strikes by the Russian army. General Dvornikov only led military operations in Syria by bombing from the air," retired general Hanna pointed out. "And the Russian infantry forces almost never had to confront anyone on the ground [in Syria]. But now there's a ground war, with fights between regular armies and professional soldiers, as well as air capacity."

[Dargo]

https://beta.dw.com/en/does-russian-commander-in-ukraine-deserve-his-bloody-reputation/a-61451448


Maybe one can read from this, that the new Russian top general is not that much more competent than his predecessors as was initially said.

Do not see Russia win this battle, attacker has no 3:1 force concentration and no air superiority. Read somewhere weapons from US have arrived, do not think new general will win with old doctrine that Russians have, certainly if you count the corruption in this army.

[mapuc]

Do not see Russia win this battle, attacker has no 3:1 force concentration and no air superiority. Read somewhere weapons from US have arrived, do not think new general will win with old doctrine that Russians have, certainly if you count the corruption in this army.


I truly fear what they may come up with when they see they are going to lose the war

Markus

[Commander Wallace]

I found this interview with Mikhail Sergeyevich Gorbachev. Mikhail is a Russian and former Soviet politician. The eighth and final leader of the Soviet Union, he was the General Secretary of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union from 1985 until 1991. Mikhail strikes me as an honorable man. Too bad he isn't still in charge although he just turned 91.



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qYVsKoQXATY


This was in 2014 and Gorbachev warned of an escalating conflict then.



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QzbJw2rc5W8

[tmccarthy]

↓ "Mikhail Gorbachev"

I always found him interesting, he seemed like a wise and truthful man and had good humor.


--------------------------------



Scott Ritter, former U.S. Marine Corps intelligence officer.

https://youtu.be/jQSTHvD2z1c

[Rockstar]

↓ "Mikhail Gorbachev"

I always found him interesting, he seemed like a wise and truthful man and had good humor.


--------------------------------


I think all westerners find Mikhail Sergeyevich Gorbachev ‘interesting’. However I think most people in Russia and his hometown of Приво́льное would disagree. They call him an old goat and blame him for the break-up of the Soviet Union.

[Commander Wallace]

I think all westerners find Mikhail Sergeyevich Gorbachev ‘interesting’. However I think most people in Russia and his hometown of Приво́льное would disagree. They call him an old goat and blame him for the break-up of the Soviet Union.

The breakup of the former Soviet union is the crux of the argument Putin has been using to justify his " military operation." I noticed in the interviews, he blames the U.S for pushing Putin. There may be some truth to it but of course, there are the views of the U.S and NATO to consider as well. It seems obvious that Putin wants to bring the former satellite countries under the control of Russia. It's not happening.

With regards to Soviet views, the U.S under the Regan presidency ran a military exercise called Able Archer in 1983. This exercise spooked Russia into believing that the U.S was about to launch an invasion in Eastern Europe and on the USSR. Reagan had to call in the Ambassador of the USSR into the Oval office to explain that Able Archer was merely an exercise. Ronald Reagan took an especially aggressive stance with the USSR. Add to that the deployment of Pershing 2 missiles in Europe and the Soviet Union was scared. This demonstrates how easily actions can be misinterpreted.

I admire Gorbachev as he seemed reasonable and Intelligent. He thought that Nuclear weapons should be completely abolished and seemed to have no issue pursuing that objective.

[ET2SN]

With regards to Soviet views, the U.S under the Regan presidency ran a military exercise called Able Archer in 1983. This exercise spooked Russia into believing that the U.S was about to launch an invasion in Eastern Europe and on the USSR. Reagan had to call in the Ambassador of the USSR into the Oval office to explain that Able Archer was merely an exercise. Ronald Reagan took an especially aggressive stance with the USSR. Add to that the deployment of Pershing 2 missiles in Europe and the Soviet Union was scared. This demonstrates how easily actions can be misinterpreted.




There's a little more to that story, as best as I can piece together.

Able Archer was a test of Command And Control assets coupled to a kind of War Game. Able Archer was run once or twice a year since the early 1960's. The actual test was that NATO commanders could communicate with each other during rising tensions and into a WW3 scenario. The War Game part of it wasn't as important as some authors claim. There were military officers playing a role as military officers and civilians playing a role as a national command structure (Presidents, vice chairs, Prime Ministers, etc.). It was rare for ranking officers or real cabinet members to play the game however, the actual field units and communication gear was actively tested.

What happened in 1983 requires some set up. Yuri Andropov was in charge of the Kremlin and was also quite old and frail. In the US, Regan had the "Clear And Present Danger" group (ultra Hawks) acting as advisors, but most important, the UK was working with some "high level assets" in Russia. :yep:

How it all boiled together- This may not be accurate, but this is the timeline I could piece together.
Able Archer commenced as normal with Jeeps and Rovers bouncing around in the boondocks of Europe, testing their radios. The Soviets became aware of the higher radio traffic, as was normal. Right around this time, Andropov (as the former leader of the KGB) began to wonder out loud if this wouldn't be the way the West would kick off an actual invasion of the Soviet Union.

It was at this point that the UK's "highly placed assets" near the Kremlin became important. They told the folks in the UK that either Andropov was losing it or that Soviet generals liked what they were hearing, and maybe it would be a good idea to "cool your jets" and either tone-down or reschedule the exercise.

The UK immediately contacted their counterparts in the US (probably the CIA) and in NATO to at least get the word out. Not much is made about how NATO responded. How the US responded, however, could be best understood as "indifferent" or "not a big deal". The US (CIA) position was that, maybe, Andropov was just trying to earn an Oscar statue and "Hey, thanks but we got this" and hung up. At best, an early report to the White House was watered down.


:o


The reports about Able Archer '83 didn't become important until a couple of years later during a review, when all Hell broke loose (in the US) and the finger pointing started. :yep:

[Commander Wallace]

There's a little more to that story, as best as I can piece together.

Able Archer was a test of Command And Control assets coupled to a kind of War Game. Able Archer was run once or twice a year since the early 1960's. The actual test was that NATO commanders could communicate with each other during rising tensions and into a WW3 scenario. The War Game part of it wasn't as important as some authors claim. There were military officers playing a role as military officers and civilians playing a role as a national command structure (Presidents, vice chairs, Prime Ministers, etc.). It was rare for ranking officers or real cabinet members to play the game however, the actual field units and communication gear was actively tested.

What happened in 1983 requires some set up. Yuri Andropov was in charge of the Kremlin and was also quite old and frail. In the US, Regan had the "Clear And Present Danger" group (ultra Hawks) acting as advisors, but most important, the UK was working with some "high level assets" in Russia. :yep:

How it all boiled together- This may not be accurate, but this is the timeline I could piece together.
Able Archer commenced as normal with Jeeps and Rovers bouncing around in the boondocks of Europe, testing their radios. The Soviets became aware of the higher radio traffic, as was normal. Right around this time, Andropov (as the former leader of the KGB) began to wonder out loud if this wouldn't be the way the West would kick off an actual invasion of the Soviet Union.

It was at this point that the UK's "highly placed assets" near the Kremlin became important. They told the folks in the UK that either Andropov was losing it or that Soviet generals liked what they were hearing, and maybe it would be a good idea to "cool your jets" and either tone-down or reschedule the exercise.

The UK immediately contacted their counterparts in the US (probably the CIA) and in NATO to at least get the word out. Not much is made about how NATO responded. How the US responded, however, could be best understood as "indifferent" or "not a big deal". The US (CIA) position was that, maybe, Andropov was just trying to earn an Oscar statue and "Hey, thanks but we got this" and hung up. At best, an early report to the White House was watered down.


:o


The reports about Able Archer '83 didn't become important until a couple of years later during a review, when all Hell broke loose (in the US) and the finger pointing started. :yep:


There was a lot more to it that I didn't want to get into. :yep:

Able Archer was an outgrowth of the Autumn Forger exercises. As you mentioned, Able Archer was a more comprehensive exercise to test all assets and to see how well they could integrate with their various components including all branches of the military in addition to those of other countries in NATO.

Margaret Thatchers people in the U.K had a number of highly placed " James Bond " people running around who reported the Soviets were spooked and Thatcher let Ronald Reagan know how seriously the Soviets were viewing the exercise. Added to the mix was that the higher echelon of the various military branches were involved and that the communications between the various Governments and their branches of the military were unusually highly encrypted. Reagan himself was slated to be involved as well but was a no show. The Soviets thought that NATO was preparing a pre-emptive strike and the exercises were just a cover. This exercise also included Nuclear Weapon drills.

Margaret Thatcher had recommended to Reagan that he talk to the Soviet Ambassador and ratchet things down a few notches. You essentially said the same thing. :yep:

Ronald Reagan would later report that he actually liked Gorbachev and it was that relationship that went a long way toward cooling things down.

[Jimbuna]

Russian forces are attacking Ukrainian positions along the entire 300-mile (480km) front line in the eastern Donbas region.

It comes after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that a long-awaited Russian offensive in the east had begun.

Moscow claims to have struck more than 1,000 targets overnight.

Despite the focus on the eastern offensive, Russian forces also struck several cities across the country in recent days, including Lviv in the west.

Russian-backed fighters are also reportedly trying to storm an industrial complex in Mariupol where Ukrainian troops and civilians are said to be holed up.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces are making some successful counter-attacks south of Kharkiv, according to military analysts.

[Jimbuna]

Russia will not use nuclear weapons in Ukraine, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov says.

Asked about the issue in an interview with TV channel India Today, Lavrov says: "Conventional weapons only."

Early on in the war, Vladimir Putin ordered Russia's nuclear forces be placed on high alert, and a number of Russian government figures have signalled the country would be willing to use them in certain circumstances.

Lavrov also says, with Russia's offensive now focused on Ukraine's east, the war is entering a new phase, echoing similar comments from the Ukrainian military.

"The operation in the east of Ukraine is aimed, as was announced from the very beginning, to fully liberate the [self-proclaimed] Donetsk and Luhansk republics. And this operation will continue," he says.

"Another stage of this operation is beginning, and I am sure this will be a very important moment of this entire special operation."

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gr2u8rZEjXA

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5cWs7P6e4pI

[ET2SN]

One of the things I have wondered about was the timing of Threads in the UK and The Day After in the US. There are a lot of similarities and some differences to ponder. :hmmm:

Both productions were aimed at television, front and center. As movies in a theatre, they would be a tough sell. On TV, they were more like a punch in the nose and you didn't have to buy a ticket.

While, as I see it, Threads was aimed at the people of the UK who were sitting in front of their TV, The Day After was aimed squarely at Regan. Regan understood movies and people who made them. It was as if the director was screaming at him, "Wake up already!!".

It should also be noted that The Day After ran a disclaimer saying that the attack presented was meant to model a LOW LEVEL nuclear exchange and that the real thing would be much worse.

[mapuc]

^ I think The Day After is one of the best nuclear war movie.

Markus

[ET2SN]

"The operation in the east of Ukraine is aimed, as was announced from the very beginning, to fully liberate the [self-proclaimed] Donetsk and Luhansk republics. And this operation will continue," he says.


Uh huh. Which explains why they attacked Chernobyl and Kiev. Obviously, the Army got lost. :doh:

[Jimbuna]

Uh huh. Which explains why they attacked Chernobyl and Kiev. Obviously, the Army got lost. :doh:

Precisely why you cannot believe anything that comes out of Russia.

[mapuc]

From liveuamap

Russian plane dropped powerful aerial bomb on hospital near Azvostal in Mariupol. This happened 1 hour ago

Markus

[Skybird]

Lavrov lies whenever he opens his propagandistic cyncial mouthpiece. And this spokesman of the Russian army who is so often on TV, the one wearing glasses , I have nicknamed "Comical Ivan".



Heavy shelling from artillery and cruise missiles, over 1200 targets hit in the first 24 hours of the offensive, claims Russia. Apparently small gains ont eh ground here and there, but only few major retreats by the ukjrioanian army, and immedoate regorupings and falling back into prepared positions. On paper it looks like an impressiove force the Russian have set up ont he gorund, but the many batallions they have amassed cannot be in that goold shape anymore as they once ma yhave been, most of them have seen combat and massive attrition before, and the moral is low. I cannot see , currently ta leats, that the Russian can indeed make a decisive gain on the ground, judging from what the media report. What worries me still is the ongoing reports about thin ammo supplies.



uring the first weeks The russian rolled into regiosn where the Ukrianians already layed in ambush, and then struck int the flanks of columns. with the amssove atillery barrahge it now may be much more diffult to hold out in such terrain and then repeat this tactic, which probably is the purpose of this massive preparatory bombardement: to drive Ukrainian defenders out BEFORE Russians roll in. I am curious whether Russian logistics this time function better.



And air transport with Western weapons is claimed to have been shot down by Russia near Odessa.



Netherlands want to send Ukraine armoured vehicles. Criticsm of the German chancellor mounts. Scholz manouvers, and manouvers, and manouvers more. He is simply not there, even if he seems to be there visually - and this art he masters better than anyone else. He like a shadow that walks around even where there is no body to cast it.

[Catfish]

After the de-arming Ukraine from nuclear weapons the US and Russia had signed a treaty to respect Ukraine's borders. This Budapest Memorandum imposes an obligation on Washington and the UK to support Ukraine and push back against Russia.


"This is not just a matter of living up to U.S. obligations. It is also about preserving the credibility of security assurances, which could contribute to preventing nuclear proliferation in the future.

A key element of the arrangement—many Ukrainians would say the key element—was the readiness of the United States and Russia, joined by Britain, to provide security assurances. The Budapest memorandum committed Washington, Moscow and London, among other things, to “respect the independence and sovereignty and existing borders of Ukraine” and to “refrain from the threat or use of force” against that country"

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2014/12/04/the-budapest-memorandum-and-u-s-obligations/

[Jimbuna]

Troops of Russian Federation dropped powerful bomb on hospital in Azovstal area in Mariupol: under blockages about 300 people, among them children, - Taruta Source: https://censor.net/en/n3335263

[Jimbuna]

Rape as a weapon: huge scale of sexual violence inflicted in Ukraine emerges Source: https://censor.net/en/r3331509

[ET2SN]

Precisely why you cannot believe anything that comes out of Russia.

At this point, I don't think Lavrov believes Lavrov. :O:

[Moonlight]

Phase 2.
This is becoming make or break time now for Putin because he has to win this next phase of the war. If the Ukrainian forces hold their ground then that puts Putin right back where he started, he can only bury so many bodies before his own citizens start seeing sense and saying enough is enough.

Donbas, is this the End Game?.
I expect the Russians to do a lot better this time than they did with that debacle around Kyiv, but at what cost will it come to his army?. The Russian soldiers reputation has already been shredded and so have their tanks, any more screwups and it could send the troops over the edge. Without that heavy artillery of theirs they would have been sent back home weeks ago with their tails between their legs, so they're going to have to win this one or Putin's army is finished once and for all.

[Jimbuna]

^ If the current day Hitler feels in any way threatened as to the outcome I believe he will resort to biological and or tactical nuclear weapons.

[mapuc]

W.US official: 7 planes will head to Europe within 24 hours to transport weapons to Ukraine

Edit
After having read Skybirds comment and the claim Russia had shot down a plane with weapon from west I thought-I need to find info about this

Russian air defence units say they have shot down a Ukrainian military plane carrying a shipment of weapons sent by Western countries.

The attack took place outside the city of Odessa in south-west Ukraine, Russian State news agency, TASS reported, quoting Defence Ministry spokesman, Maj Gen Igor Konashenkov as saying on Saturday.

https://dailypost.ng/2022/04/17/war-russia-shoots-down-ukraine-military-plane-carrying-western-weapons/

End edit

Markus

[Skybird]

After the de-arming Ukraine from nuclear weapons the US and Russia had signed a treaty to respect Ukraine's borders. This Budapest Memorandum imposes an obligation on Washington and the UK to support Ukraine and push back against Russia.


"This is not just a matter of living up to U.S. obligations. It is also about preserving the credibility of security assurances, which could contribute to preventing nuclear proliferation in the future.

A key element of the arrangement—many Ukrainians would say the key element—was the readiness of the United States and Russia, joined by Britain, to provide security assurances. The Budapest memorandum committed Washington, Moscow and London, among other things, to “respect the independence and sovereignty and existing borders of Ukraine” and to “refrain from the threat or use of force” against that country"

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2014/12/04/the-budapest-memorandum-and-u-s-obligations/


"Guarantees" are only a waste of air and/or ink&papoer whenever things get down to the real nitty-gritty. I take the weapon deployed and my hand at the trigger any time over guarantees given by somebody else who is not even directly affected.


One does not believe political promises - by no one. One just does not do it. Not after millenia of human history illustrating why it is a stupid idea to do so. One does not intentionally aim at an arrangement that puts oneself at the good will and mercy of somebody else. One must want to leave the control where it belongs - with oneself.

[Dargo]

The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation suffer significant personnel losses. They dropped their standards and allow 3-month contracts, but this has not brought in replacements.

– General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, operational information as of 18:00 on 19 April 2022

"According to available information, since the beginning of the year, only 130 contract servicemen have been selected to serve in the 42 parts of the Southern Military District. 22 of them have already refused to participate in the so-called "special operation" in Ukraine."

Personnel of two battalion tactical groups were destroyed in the 200th Separate Motorized Infantry Brigade of Russia's Northern Fleet coastal defense forces.

Four companies of Russia's 106th Parachute Division were destroyed on the territory of Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/mhmck/status/1516446967626358785

[Catfish]

Could this be done ..?

"Biden Can Seize Russian Cash In U.S., Harvard law Professor Says"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KRtGcm5Dm8E

[Skybird]

Could this be done ..?

"Biden Can Seize Russian Cash In U.S., Harvard law Professor Says"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KRtGcm5Dm8E
Gulp...! What was it with the German Bundesbank's never since then seen again gold treasury handed over to New York long time ago...??? :o


:)

[mapuc]

Found this interesting article in a Danish newspaper Translated with DeepL.

Start article:

Nato soldiers train Ukrainians to use new weapons, but where is the limit?

The US will train Ukrainian soldiers outside Ukraine. Soldiers in Ukraine say they have received training from British special forces inside the country.
Within "the next few days" US soldiers will start training Ukrainian soldiers at bases outside Ukraine.

The Ukrainians will get a crash course in how to use their latest military hardware: the 155mm howitzer artillery guns that are part of the latest US arms aid. US Defence Department spokesman John Kirby told a press briefing yesterday.

- We expect to begin training the Ukrainian armed forces in the use of the howitzers, which will be on their way there shortly, he said.

- The training will take place outside Ukraine and will involve training those who will be training others, John Kirby said.
The crucial point is "outside Ukraine".

Could open up a new situation

According to DR's defence analyst, Mads Korsager Nielsen, the NATO countries are still careful not to cross the line when they can be considered active participants in the war.
- There is a limit where you actually have soldiers in Ukraine, he says

- If you have people in Ukraine, whether they are acting as advisers or whatever you call them, it opens up the possibility that these people can be injured, killed or captured, and then you suddenly have a whole new situation," he says.

But the US Defense Department has become more clear-headed about what help US troops are providing to Ukraine.

In late March, the Pentagon was busy correcting President Joe Biden when he said US soldiers were "training" Ukrainian soldiers at bases in Poland. "Advice and assistance" was being provided, not "training," General Tod D. Wolters said, according to CNN.

Starting to look like a 'proxy war'

There are also signs that the British are taking a more active role. The British newspaper The Times has spoken to two Ukrainian officers in Ukraine who say their units have reportedly received training in the use of armoured weapons from British special forces in the suburbs north of Kyiv.

- They were nice guys, the British. They invited us to come and visit them when the war was over, one officer said, according to the newspaper.

The information has not been confirmed elsewhere and the British Ministry of Defence declined to comment to The Times, saying it never commented on the work of special forces as a matter of principle.

According to Kenneth Øhlenschlæger Buhl, a military researcher at the Defence Academy specialising in the laws of war, there are signs that Western countries are moving closer to the limit of when to actively participate in war.

- This war is starting to look more and more like a proxy war, he says.

Sailing close to the wind

In the past, there was a clear line between when a country was an active party to a war and when it was neutral, he explains. Rules on neutrality date back to the 1907 Hague Conventions.

But various "proxy wars" have helped blur that line over time, he says.
These include the war in Afghanistan during the Russian invasion and the Vietnam War, when the Soviet Union supplied North Vietnam on a large scale with the missiles used to shoot down American aircraft. Soviet pilots also flew in North Korean MiG-15 fighters during the 1950-1953 Korean War, he says.

- So the Russians are throwing stones at a glass house when they accuse NATO of meddling in the war, says Kenneth Øhlenschlæger Buhl.

- The crucial question must therefore be whether you are a party to the conflict or not. You are a party the moment you actively participate, and as long as the US, the UK and other countries are not actively participating in the conflict, they are outside the conflict, he says.

- But are you sailing close to the wind? Yes, perhaps in relation to the old neutrality rules from 1907, says Kenneth Øhlenschlæger Buhl, but they must also be considered outdated, precisely because state practice and thus international law have changed, he says

Not unthinkable with covert operations

Russia has warned the US in a diplomatic note that continuing to help Ukraine with weapons would have "incalculable consequences".
- But what do the Russians intend to do about it? asks Kenneth Øhlenschlæger Buhl.

- They are probably just as uninterested in going to war with NATO countries.
He doesn't know if it's true that British special forces are training Ukrainians in Ukraine, but if it is, he's not surprised.

- In these kinds of wars, there will often be what are called black ops - that is, operations that are completely out of the public eye, he says.

More advanced weapons take time to learn

For the Ukrainian army, it is indeed urgent to get crash courses in some of the new weapons they are being supplied with, says DR's defence analyst Mads Korsager Nielsen.

- The nature of the weapons aid being given has changed.

- Whereas in the beginning it was more simple types of weapons like armoured rockets that you could learn to use in half an hour, it has changed character to some quite advanced weapon systems, he says.
In addition to the howitzer guns mentioned above, the US has also sent artillery squadrons, armoured personnel carriers and drones.

- These are all things that take time to learn how to operate. In peacetime, such training can easily take weeks. Now it has to be done in a very short time, while Ukraine is trying to fight a battle with the Russians.

End of article.

Markus

[Rockstar]

Could this be done ..?

"Biden Can Seize Russian Cash In U.S., Harvard law Professor Says"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KRtGcm5Dm8E

The introduction reminds me of Trump making Mexico pay for the wall. Now we hear it asked: can Biden make Russia pay for Ukraine weapons? :har:

Sure the Feds can seize property they do it all the time. But in this country it can’t be done on a whim, seizure is a legal process, last I heard there needs to be probable cause that a law was broken and warrants issued to seize private property cash and assets. Call me crazy but it has something to do with the fourth amendment to our constitution. Even if the Feds did seize property, cash and assets it can still be contested in court and if the defendants lawyer is really good can have it all returned.

[mapuc]

A friend wrote this on his wall

"This I do not understand-Ukraine lived for decades under Soviet oppression and now they want to join the EU. Understand this, he who can

Markus

[Onkel Neal]

The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation suffer significant personnel losses. They dropped their standards and allow 3-month contracts, but this has not brought in replacements.

– General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, operational information as of 18:00 on 19 April 2022

"According to available information, since the beginning of the year, only 130 contract servicemen have been selected to serve in the 42 parts of the Southern Military District. 22 of them have already refused to participate in the so-called "special operation" in Ukraine."

Personnel of two battalion tactical groups were destroyed in the 200th Separate Motorized Infantry Brigade of Russia's Northern Fleet coastal defense forces.

Four companies of Russia's 106th Parachute Division were destroyed on the territory of Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/mhmck/status/1516446967626358785

Side note: Hi Dargo, have not talked with you in a long while, hope you are doing well, sir. :Kaleun_Salute:

[mapuc]

An off topic comment

I remember Dargo from our Subsim meet in Holland.

End of an off topic comment.

Markus

[Skybird]

A friend wrote this on his wall

"This I do not understand-Ukraine lived for decades under Soviet oppression and now they want to join the EU. Understand this, he who can

Markus
If I slap you in the face and kick you under the table - you would want to escape from me, too, or not?

[mapuc]

If I slap you in the face and kick you under the table - you would want to escape from me, too, or not?

Of course I would ran away/escape.

But escape to another person who later may do the same.

For me EU is on the track to become a modern Soviet.

Markus

[Rockstar]

Just a couple of FYI links

https://twitter.com/ELINTNews

https://twitter.com/sentdefender

[Skybird]

For me EU is on the track to become a modern Soviet.

MarkusYes, there a parallels in the patterns of political power accumulation, and how and what to do with this power.

[Catfish]

OT here, but..

For me EU is on the track to become a modern Soviet. Markus
For you. Care to explain how and why?

[Catfish]

Elon Musk gives the world a crash course in how to troll and control Vladimir Putin

"For the last three weeks, all I’ve heard is experts fretting about World War III. That’s a perfectly reasonable thermonuclear fear.
But what if Putin already thinks we are in World War III?
Bullies don’t stop bullying in the face of reason. The only way to stop a bully is to punch him square in the mouth with the unspoken promise of more pain to come."

https://www.thestar.com/entertainment/opinion/2022/03/16/elon-musk-gives-the-world-a-crash-course-in-how-to-troll-and-control-vladimir-putin.html

Good for Elona :D

[Onkel Neal]

:haha::haha::haha:

There are two possible outcomes: 1. Musk is providing the West with an invaluable lesson on how to deal with Vladimir Putin. 2. Musk is going to get us all killed.

[Commander Wallace]

The only way to stop a bully is to punch him square in the mouth with the unspoken promise of more pain to come."


:D




Bully !! :haha:

[Jimbuna]

An 11:00 GMT deadline issued by Russia for Ukrainian forces in Mariupol to lay down their weapons passes, with no sign of surrender.

A marine commander in Ukraine's last stronghold in the southern city - a steelworks plant - says his men might have only hours left.

In a video sent to the BBC and other media, Major Serhiy Volyna says his troops will not surrender but want evacuation to a third country.

President Volodymyr Zelensky says "the situation in Mariupol remains as severe as possible"

Ukraine has reached a preliminary agreement with Russia for a humanitarian corridor to evacuate civilians there but these have failed in the past.

Russia is trying to capture the eastern Donbas region in a new offensive but UK intelligence says Ukrainian forces have fought off several attacks.

[Jimbuna]

In Berlin, Chancellor Olaf Scholz said Germany was providing finance to enable Ukraine to buy anti-tank weapons and ammunition from German arms manufacturers.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pWJ37G80kdI

Read the comments below the video.

Quite embarrassing really.

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lMl9m3D-rx0

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HcfV2DxQKBw

[Catfish]

I'm quite sure "we" sent more than money already, however for the time being it is probably unwise to publicly specify anything. It is about helping, not bragging. Don't let them divide us and don't feed the trolls.

[mapuc]

Here is what I think will happen within the next 1½-2 years ahead.

Russia will, after having lost many men and material take Donbass and Luhansk area. This will be accomplished in the autumn -22

They will not have the pleasure to keep these for long.

As we speak Ukrainian is not only trained in using former soviet weapons but also modern weapon from NATO(Like the 155 mm Howitzer) they are also trained in modern warfare.

These steps will be used in about 1½-2 years from now, where Ukrainian will kick Russia out of Ukraine, including Crimea.

Could be wrong though

Markus

[Jimbuna]

Not sure how accurate this is atm.

NATO fighter jets arrived in Ukraine! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Twwre7da_-c

[mapuc]

^ I know from the news here and abroad that Ukraine would get some old MIG29 from Poland and some more eastern countries.

Markus

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9IXYMLbnFcs

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FDXGF3JkZgU

[Catfish]

Not sure how accurate this is atm.
NATO fighter jets arrived in Ukraine! [...]
Around 20 SU29 from former soviet block states, and spare parts from the US. They can be flown, repaired and maintained by Ukrainians w/o foreign help.

Not heard about "western" fighters yet :hmmm:

[mapuc]

Around 20 SU29 from former soviet block states, and spare parts from the US. They can be flown, repaired and maintained by Ukrainians w/o foreign help.

Not heard about "western" fighters yet :hmmm:


Even though they are old these planes from Poland you could say they came from a NATO country=NATO fighter jets.

Markus

[Catfish]

From the comments: "They're not "NATO fighters". They are former NATO fighters, and now exported aircraft owned by Ukraine." :03:
Posted Numbers differ though. Seems the "spare parts" from Germany are just disassembled planes that can be quickly assembled again. Still Russia has way more fighters, and pilots :shifty:

[mapuc]

From the comments: "They're not "NATO fighters". They are former NATO fighters, and now exported aircraft owned by Ukraine." :03:
Posted Numbers differ though. Seems the "spare parts" from Germany are just disassembled planes that can be quickly assembled again. Still Russia has way more fighters, and pilots :shifty:

You're right it was just me word picking.

So USA will also send some heavy artillery to Ukraine. It's the M777.

The United States has already provided more than 50 million rounds of ammunition to Ukrainian forces. But as troops go through tens of thousands of rounds a day, and fiercer fighting is expected in the coming weeks, there is an urgent need for additional aid.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/19/us-to-announce-another-colossal-military-aid-package-for-ukraine.html

Tell me when NATO has crossed the line

Markus

[Buddahaid]

Right after Putin crosses the line.

[Moonlight]

Patrick Lancaster is a Russian propaganda mouthpiece, I would take anything he says and films with a pinch of salt, in fact if you take any video or news report that has not been verified as a fact then you are dafter than I thought you all were. :O:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9IXYMLbnFcs

[Skybird]

FOCUS, Bild Zeitung:

According to "Bild" information, the German government has made it impossible for Ukraine to buy heavy weapons from German arms manufacturers by greatly reducing the offer in advance. The German Defense Ministry, acting on orders from the Chancellor's Office, has removed all heavy weapons from a so-called "industrial list" of German arms manufacturers, the Bild newspaper reported Wednesday from documents it has at its disposal.

The list, shortened from the original 48 to 24 pages and titled "Support Opportunities Industry - Consolidated," had been handed over to the Ukrainian government at the end of March. According to the newspaper, the original list in mid-March had still included heavy weapon systems such as the "Leopard-2" main battle tank, the "Marder" and "Puma" infantry fighting vehicles, and the "Boxer" and "Fuchs" armored personnel carriers. According to the report, the "Panzerhaubitze 2000" howitzer was also initially on the list.
----------------------


It gets further reported that Germany plans to completely boycot Russian oil by the end of the year.



Finally it got reported earlier that Germany vetoed/prevented an EU decision to go wioth a gas embrago "lite", an idea that had been borught in by Italy, anothger major customer of Russian gas.



Germany is isolated.


Last, it got reported and speculated that Scholz got a call by Putin who directly threatened him with a nuclear war if German sells heavy arms to the Ukraine or stops preventing the eU frok boycotting gas immedoiaqtrely. Howeverk that report is , as I said, less a repott and more a "reasonably founded speculation". Somehow Scholz' behaviour must be explained.



If thsat is corretc that Putin theatrene Scholz with nulcera war "if", then there would have been only on possible answer: "Hey Vladdy, NATO has nukes too. If we burn, then you basterds will burn with us."

[Catfish]

^ link to the original focus article?

[Jeff-Groves]

"If we burn, then you basterds will burn with us."
Stoled that right out of Hunger Games didn't you?
:03:

[Platapus]

Latest intercepted message from Germany to Poland


"So, just to make sure, you *want* us to move our army across Poland and attack Russia?"


"Last time we did that, you didn't like it. Just want to make sure. "

[Catfish]

Latest intercepted message from Germany to Poland
"So, just to make sure, you *want* us to move our army across Poland and attack Russia?"
"Last time we did that, you didn't like it. Just want to make sure. "
:haha:
Maybe a pact with Russia beforehand, just for a surprise .. :Kaleun_Wink:

[Skybird]

Stoled that right out of Hunger Games didn't you?
:03:
Correct. Im a big fan, and unspeakably proud of it. :D

[Skybird]

^ link to the original focus article?Their running newsticker. The time-marked paragraphs cannot be directly linked. The news ticker is sometimes more up and sometimes more down their site.
EDIT: Correction: the quote is not from the newsticker of Focus, but Die Welt. My bad, sorry.

Yesterday or the day before I even red a news saying that Scholz had even prohibited Ukraine to use that money for buying heavy weapons from other states, not just Germany. Cannot say whether its true or not. I mentioned it in a post back then already.

[Jeff-Groves]

Correct. Im a big fan, and unspeakably proud of it. :D
I didn't even finish reading your sentence and knew where that came from!
:up:

[mapuc]

Their running newsticker. The time-marked paragraphs cannot be directly linked. The news ticker is sometimes more up and sometimes more down their site.
EDIT: Correction: the quote is not from the newsticker of Focus, but Die Welt. My bad, sorry.

Yesterday or the day before I even red a news saying that Scholz had even prohibited Ukraine to use that money for buying heavy weapons from other states, not just Germany. Cannot say whether its true or not. I mentioned it in a post back then already.

I found this

https://www.welt.de/debatte/kommentare/plus238264237/Olaf-Scholz-schwere-Waffen-und-die-Ukraine-Hat-Putin-ihm-mit-Atomkrieg-gedroht.html

Sadly it's behind a paywall.

Markus

[Armistead]

Patrick Lancaster is a Russian propaganda mouthpiece, I would take anything he says and films with a pinch of salt, in fact if you take any video or news report that has not been verified as a fact then you are dafter than I thought you all were. :O:

Yea, interesting how he promotes Russians as the defenders of Mariupol from the attacking Ukrainians as he walks around a city Russia leveled..

[mapuc]

Yea, interesting how he promotes Russians as the defenders of Mariupol from the attacking Ukrainians as he walks around a city Russia leveled..


I saw some minutes of the video up to where this Russian soldier started to shoot against some buildings about 1-150 meters from where they were..What is he shooting at..I tried to see if there was any Ukrainian in the opposite end..Could not see any.

Not saying there weren't any there I just couldn't see any.

It also made me think of Bollywood for some reason

Markus

[Skybird]

Its not my day today.
The story I quoted from, is very well from FOCUS.

https://www.focus.de/politik/ausland/der-kriegsverlauf-in-der-ukraine-im-ticker-russland-lehnt-viertaegigen-waffenstillstand-in-ostukraine-ab_id_52139887.html

[Skybird]

And this news about Turkey is froim Die Welt's live ticker.


With irritating remarks, the Turkish foreign minister criticizes other members of NATO, using narratives from the Kremlin. Meanwhile, SPD co-chair Saskia Esken and Ukrainian Ambassador Andrey Melnyk met on Wednesday. More in the live ticker.

Turkey's foreign minister has accused some other NATO countries of seeking a prolonged war in Ukraine as a way to weaken Russia. "There are countries in NATO that want the war to continue," Foreign Minister Mevlüt Cavusoglu said on Turkish television Wednesday. "Their goal is to weaken Russia." Turkey, mind you, is itself a member of NATO - yet Cavusoglu is spreading a narrative of Russian propaganda here.

Russia and Ukraine had held ceasefire talks in Turkey twice, most recently in late March. The negotiations have since reached an impasse. Turkey is actually considered an ally of Ukraine, which it supplies with combat drones.

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)

[mapuc]

I thought I had found it in die welt.de.

Turkey is sitting on two chairs they support both side in the war. Sooner or later they have to show where they stand.

Markus

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QzUWrdnUFug

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9yrmb0bqfI4

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=btyxRhObark

[Jimbuna]

Vladimir Putin orders his troops not to storm the Azovstal steel plant, where the last group of Ukrainian fighters in Mariupol is holding out.

Instead, the president tells them to seal it up so even a "fly" cannot escape, and says Russia has control of the strategic port city.

Some civilians trapped for weeks in the wider south-eastern city have been able to leave, but far fewer than hoped.

In the east of Ukraine, where fighting continues along a 300-mile front, Russia has not had any major breakthroughs, a think-tank says.

Moscow secured "minor gains", including parts of some frontline towns, Institute for the Study of War analysis shows.

[Catfish]

Russia Doesn’t Need Trolls This Time:
Plenty of prominent right-wing media figures are pushing out Vladimir Putin’s propaganda for him.

https://www.thebulwark.com/russia-doesnt-need-trolls-this-time/

[Catfish]

China has provided Serbia with missiles last week, now Turkey sends dozens of Bayraktar drones.
Plans of a pince movement? Will they send it to the Russians?
Serbia is a simmering powder keg.

[Jimbuna]

^ I suspect they just might.

[Catfish]

Turkey is a NATO member :hmmm:

But maybe they learned something from Trump
"It is not treason, it is alternative loyality"

[Skybird]

Turkey is a NATO member :hmmm:


Is it?
I question that since many years.

[Aktungbby]

Is it?
I question that since many years. Now yer talkin, Turkey!:shucks:

[Rockstar]

Turkey is a NATO member :hmmm:

But maybe they learned something from Trump
"It is not treason, it is alternative loyality"


Or maybe they learned something from Putin’s favorite German lobbyist, Putin whisperer, and one time Chancellor of Germany Gerhard Schröder: “As far as my relationship with President Putin is concerned, it's fine.”


https://cdn.prod.www.spiegel.de/images/7cdc7e06-0001-0004-0000-000001375619_w920_r1.4992503748125936_fpx52_fpy50. jpg

[Rockstar]

https://www.csis.org/analysis/latest-aid-package-ukraine-major-escalation-support

The Latest Aid Package to Ukraine Is a Major Escalation of Support
April 20, 2022

U.S. aid packages to Ukraine have become routine—four in the last three months—but the recently announced $800 million package is different. It expands support by including major crew-operated weapons and, for the first time, major U.S. weapons. The latter requires Ukrainians to be trained by U.S. troops. The package acknowledges the provision of Soviet-era weapons and, by what it does not include, implies that supplies of Javelins and Stingers may be getting low. The inclusion of items that will take weeks to deliver indicates that the United States now expects a long war. Finally, the U.S. record of providing about $52 million a day of military support means that the next aid package will be announced in late April and may involve another escalation.

Let's start with the biggest change: the provision of major U.S. weapons. Until now, the United States has provided self-contained munitions like Javelins and Stingers. This package includes two major crew-operated weapons: 18 howitzers and 200 M113 armored personnel carriers (APCs).

The APCs are large, tracked vehicles, essentially battlefield taxis, designed to protect troops as they maneuver. Troops exit the vehicle to fight. APCs are not tanks―the armor is relatively thin and they generally have only a machine gun for firepower―but they improve the infantry's mobility. They will allow the Ukrainians to conduct mobile operations in the open spaces of the east. This is a change from previous operations, which were primarily defensive, seeking to stop Russian advances from fixed positions.

The large number of APCs being provided means that it will take weeks or even months to get them all to the Ukrainians. Even if the vehicles come out of stocks already in Europe, they will require some servicing before they are ready for shipping. Some vehicles will likely require extensive work. Pushing that many vehicles through maintenance takes time.

The howitzers attack enemy forces at long ranges up to 20 miles. They fire 155-millimeter shells, approximately 6 inches in diameter, a NATO standard but new to the Ukrainian military, which uses the Soviet standard of 152 millimeters. The artillery will be needed for the longer-range combat that is likely to occur in the open spaces of the east. Previously, combat was mainly in urban areas where it was hard to find and attack targets without endangering civilians. The package provides only 18 howitzers, but the United States has large numbers and could easily increase that number. These systems are towed by a truck, which makes them easier to operate. There is no mechanized element requiring special parts and maintenance training. Ukrainians can use their own trucks with their own maintenance personnel and supply chains.

An advantage of the 155-millimeter is that it can fire a wider variety of projectiles than the Soviet-era 152-millimeter―high explosive, smoke, illumination, extended range, and cargo―and has more fuse types: point detonating, delay, and airburst. Of particular interest is the Excalibur, a guided munition that the United States used extensively in its Middle East wars. Although not explicitly included in this package, Excalibur could become available in the future. Excalibur would be a game changer because of its ability to hit targets precisely on the battlefield, a capability Ukrainians currently lack, and the Russians don't seem to be using.

U.S. inventory levels for howitzers and APCs are not an issue. The U.S. Army is replacing the APCs with the Armored Multipurpose Vehicle, allowing the older M113s to be spared. The current U.S. 155-millimeter towed howitzer, the M777, is still in production, so transferred articles can be replaced with new production...






https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/2999113/800-million-in-additional-security-assistance-for-ukraine/

Attributed to Pentagon Press Secretary John F. Kirby:

This afternoon, April 13, the Department of Defense (DoD) announces the authorization of a Presidential Drawdown of security assistance valued at up to an additional $800 million tailored to meet urgent Ukrainian needs for today’s fight as Russian forces shift the focus of their ruthless aggression to eastern Ukraine. This authorization is the seventh drawdown of equipment from DoD inventories for Ukraine since August 2021.

Capabilities in this package include:

18 155mm Howitzers and 40,000 artillery rounds;
Ten AN/TPQ-36 counter-artillery radars;
Two AN/MPQ-64 Sentinel air surveillance radars;
300 Switchblade Tactical Unmanned Aerial Systems;
500 Javelin missiles and thousands of other anti-armor systems;
200 M113 Armored Personnel Carriers;
100 Armored High Mobility Multipurpose Wheeled Vehicles;
11 Mi-17 helicopters;
Unmanned Coastal Defense Vessels;
Chemical, Biological, Radiological, Nuclear protective equipment;
Medical equipment;
30,000 sets of body armor and helmets;
Over 2,000 optics and laser rangefinders;
C-4 explosives and demolition equipment for obstacle clearing; and
M18A1 Claymore anti-personnel munitions configured to be consistent with the Ottawa Convention.
The United States has now committed more than $3.2 billion in security assistance to Ukraine since the beginning of the Biden Administration, including approximately $2.6 billion since the beginning of Russia’s unprovoked invasion on February 24.

The United States also continues to work with its Allies and partners to identify and provide Ukraine with additional capabilities.

The United States will continue to utilize all available tools to support Ukraine’s Armed Forces in the face of Russian aggression.

[mapuc]

Today we have Russia against NATO by proxy soon there will be other countries who will openly support Russia. Serbia and China is two countries I could see as candidate to this

Markus

[Jeff-Groves]

Serbian Forces would have to go through Romania.
Don't think Dan would like that much.

[mapuc]

Serbian Forces would have to go through Romania.
Don't think Dan would like that much.

Your comment made me wonder..how many Serbian has join the Russian army in Ukraine ? We may never know.

google is your friend

Mentioning Serbs who had already reached the Ukrainian battlefront, he said he cannot offer more concrete information about them, or about the routes, they used, as “people will be directly accused of a criminal offence”.

https://balkaninsight.com/2022/03/08/serb-volunteers-answer-call-to-fight-in-ukraine/

Markus

[Jeff-Groves]

It's tattooed on the back of their necks.
:shucks:

A Monty Python thing.
:har:

[mapuc]

I toke a look at the map and it made me remember something.

Hungary is also pro Russia..Not so much as Serbia though

Markus

[Rockstar]

Today we have Russia against NATO by proxy soon there will be other countries who will openly support Russia. Serbia and China is two countries I could see as candidate to this

Markus

Russia is now a poor backward country, three quarters of a century of Soviet rule has inflicted unprecedented damage on the Russian people. Millions of highly gifted Russians we’re killed or perished in gulags, stifling doctrinal orthodoxy which isolated Russians from the rest of the world. Not too mention policies completely indifferent to the environment which has caused untold damage to the environment and the human body. Only 40 percent of newborns are born healthy, one fifth of Russian first graders have some form of mental retardation. Male longevity has decline to an average of 57.3 years of age and more people are dying than being born.

Yet the faithful long for these old ways and continue to cheer Putin on! :doh:

The failure of Russia to take Ukraine will only serve to embolden Russia’s former Soviet satellite neighbors to the South such as Turkmenistan and all the other ‘Stan’s’ to either unite as one or form an alliance independent of Putin’s Russia. As for China I don’t think they are in a rush to help Russia achieve victory in Ukraine since they’re probably negotiating with all the ‘Stans’ to gain access to their natural resources without Russian interference.

[mapuc]

^ Why I mentioned China is:
How interested are they in a beaten Russia or
are they interested in a strong Russia.

Markus

[mapuc]

propaganda or threat ?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6TSeJPP9PRE

Markus

[Rockstar]

I toke a look at the map and it made me remember something.

Hungary is also pro Russia..Not so much as Serbia though

Markus

Don’t forget the pro Putin Belarus, look how good it’s going for them.

https://youtu.be/JYasztXapNM


Can’t imagine Serbia and Hungary are all that eager to jump headfirst into a conflict and support someone nobody in the free world likes. That same someone who has already begun Stalinist purges and abandoned his own troops.

https://youtu.be/IaXrG6_Qs6Q

https://youtu.be/szI5dEcawsM

[Rockstar]

propaganda or threat ?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6TSeJPP9PRE

Markus

It doesn’t matter to me, each will be met with an appropriate response.

“Don’t start nothing, won’t be nothing” - Albert Einstein

[Gorpet]

Yes Putin doesn't want NATO in his backyard because he made it clear that he intended to bring all of the former Soviet states under Russian control again whether they like it or not. Those states then began seeking NATO membership to remain independent. Oops sorry Georgia too late, oh and sorry southeastern Ukraine too late. You call this western aggression but give the war criminals a free pass.

Answer me this what does NATO membership bring to a country that is accepted? Please do tell us all the great things that comes with that country club membership.That the taxpayers that fund the U.S. government get for all their hard earned money. And why would any country want to join nato when they could join the Eu or the Asian trade market's and stay out of military conflict based on their trade all together.?

[Gorpet]

Yes Putin doesn't want NATO in his backyard because he made it clear that he intended to bring all of the former Soviet states under Russian control again whether they like it or not. Those states then began seeking NATO membership to remain independent. Oops sorry Georgia too late, oh and sorry southeastern Ukraine too late. You call this western aggression but give the war criminals a free pass.

And Nato comprises many countries on the European Continent.Why can't these countries deal with this problem? Are you so weak amongst yourselves that without American political guidance and our military power you can't defend your own countries and solve this problem? If this is true you need a revolution and get rid of the old politicians and their families that run your countries.

[Gorpet]

Re. Gorpet's comment. Why do you defend Putin? Ukraine did not start the war and would have been perfectly happy without it but Putin has grand plans and control over what media your average Ivan gets. Freedom of the press to confront and ridicule the state, while often being misused and abused, is still light years ahead of state controlled media.

I'll fix this for you.
Hell ya, who gives a shtt what the Ukrainian people think. I just can't believe Russia and its people wholeheartedly believe what they see on state controlled Russian media.

And i can't believe here in America the breadbasket of the new world order the leaders of Democracy and Transparency for all Citizens of the Planet we can't see from the news media and or our Transparent Governments,both sides in equal representation given to the World. I have heard the word Transparency spouted out of the mouths of Politicians for so long i laugh and yawn.How much money does it cost the taxpayer for the Transparency a word that flies out of every single Politicians mouth from the local council member to the highest members of the political party that runs a country that will decide who is your enemy what your future will be.

There are rumor's that Zelinskiy and the ruling families of Ukraine are eliminating all resistance of any political parties that want an end to this war. So where can we find this Transparency ? Is this true ? And where the weapons givers to make sure this isn't happening and the Transparency of it all ?

[Gorpet]

China has nothing to do with this war and is smart enough to let Russia bleed itself out.

Ah yes, Sun Tzu well let's see if that works out for them in the long run, I must say they have a damn good start so we shall see.

[Jimbuna]

Russian forces took 40 villages in east Ukraine on Thursday, but President Zelensky says these and other gains are only temporary.

"They can only delay the inevitable, the time when the invaders will have to leave our territory," Mr Zelensky said.

Physical damage to Ukraine's buildings and infrastructure from Russia's invasion has reached roughly $60bn (£46bn), according to the World Bank.

The UN says the Ukraine war is a "horror story of violations against civilians", as it investigates more than 300 alleged unlawful killings in the country.

[Jimbuna]

A court in Moscow has fined Google's parent company Alphabet Inc for failing to remove contentious videos.

The US tech giant was handed two fines totalling 11m roubles ($135,000; £155,000) for "administrative violations". The Tagansky District Court in Moscow said the company had distributed inaccurate data about Russian troop losses and civilian casualties in Ukraine, according to TASS news agency.

One of the videos was said to show a phone conversation between Russian soldiers and their relatives back home. The troops were said to be complaining of casualties in their ranks.

Some foreign social media platforms, including Facebook and Instagram, have been blocked in Russia. YouTube, however, remains available.

Russia's communications watchdog has previously said it would take steps to punish Google for "spreading fakes" on YouTube, and had warned the US company it would be fined if it failed to comply.

[Jimbuna]

Mariupol steelworks: 'We have wounded and dead inside the bunkers'

One of the last Ukrainian defenders in Mariupol has told the BBC that the besieged steelworks where they are holed up is largely destroyed above ground and civilians are trapped under collapsed buildings.

Speaking from the Azovstal plant - the last part of Mariupol not under Russian control - Svyatoslav Palamar from the controversial Azov regiment said defenders had repelled waves of Russian attacks.

"I always say that as long as we are here, Mariupol remains under control of Ukraine," he said.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61183062

[Catfish]

^ They need to be relieved, all of them. Fat chance that anoyne of the Ukrainians survives withour exterior help.
It seems only the chechen fighters have been left to deal with the ukrainian defenders, the other russian military moves on north.
Time for a special operation.

[Jimbuna]

^ It must be like living in hell inside those underground bunkers.

[Bilge_Rat]

Russian forces took 40 villages in east Ukraine on Thursday, but President Zelensky says these and other gains are only temporary.



Well he has to say that, but not a good sign that the Ukrainian defenses are collapsing. Problem with this war is they we are only hearing what the Ukrainians are saying which may have little to do with the reality on the ground.

There have been warning signs:

1. Russian switched tactics to using massive artillery bombardments. The Russian Army has always been very much artillery centric and they are now going to their strength. There have been reports of Ukrainian units being under almost constant artillery fire;

2. There have been reports that Ukrainians have been blowing through their ammo at an alarming rates, typically expending a week's worth of ammo in a day, also reports that NATO countries have pretty much expended their reserves of readily available ammo/equipment and will have trouble supplying Ukraine at the same rate;

3. the fact that the U.S. is now providing what were top secret drones to Ukraine, i.e. the "Phoenix Ghost" drones which were top secret/classified until yesterday is not a sign that the Ukrainians have everything under control.

The Ukrainians may be in much worse shape than we think, we should have a better idea over the coming days.

[Reece]

Russia's communications watchdog has previously said it would take steps to punish Google for "spreading fakes" on YouTube, and had warned the US company it would be fined if it failed to comply.

:har: :har: I laugh at their face!! :haha:

[Skybird]

Answer me this what does NATO membership bring to a country that is accepted?
NATO members benefit from the promise of article 5.
Please do tell us all the great things that comes with that country club membership.Its article 5, and thats it. NATO is a military mutual assistance pact, and nothign more and nothing less and nothing else.

That the taxpayers that fund the U.S. government get for all their hard earned money. Now you are confusing national interests of the USA (which would then have to be named as geostrategic and global-logistic) and the interests of the other NATO members and those who want to become NATO members that you asked about.

And why would any country want to join nato when they could join the Eu or the Asian trade market's and stay out of military conflict based on their trade all together.?Because 1. this is this and that is that, and the EU has other purposes and goals and foci than NATO (you compare apples with oranges here: an economic-cultural alliance with a military defence alliance); and 2. non-membership in NATO does not mean that military conflict nevertheless finds you and gets enforced on you. With NATO's article 5 you may want to think you have better chances in that case.

[les green01]

war is hell a wise man once said no it don't surprise me if they are going though ammo quick civilians and green troops and no telling how many are putting them on full auto spray and prey method atilitary and bombs going off ground shaking trying to hitting a moving target,running with a full combat load can get you breathing hard quick first time in combat your squeezing your insides to keep from pissing all over yourself your rear end pucker so tight a fart couldn't come out and you better hope it is a fart

[mapuc]

Thou longer the war will be thou higher is the chance the Ukrainian will get better training and better equipment.

The chance for NATO getting directly involved is also growing higher thou longer the war is.

Markus

[Catfish]

Thou longer the war will be thou higher is the chance the Ukrainian will get better training and better equipment.
Ukraine is not doing as well as a lot of people thnk. Time is on Russia's side.
The chance for NATO getting directly involved is also growing higher thou longer the war is.Markus
I'm waiting. IMHO Nato should already have taken position on Ukraine's eastern border.
If we do not help Ukraine now and let Russia have the Donbas and more, we only freeze the problem, and it will bite us again in five or so years, only then it will be the NATO anyway, with a reinforced russian military.

Russian state television says one of the country's major TV hosts on the channel 'Russia-1'
that the invasion of Ukraine is just a small step on the road to the great war against NATO.

Now hear this:
https://www.instagram.com/p/CcX7AVxudPQ/?utm_source=ig_embed&ig_rid=50c1a9a6-e8bb-4850-af0e-ec6df8095af7

The only thing Putin and Russia understands is showing force, now.

[mapuc]

Ukraine is not doing as well as a lot of people thnk. Time is on Russia's side.

I'm waiting. IMHO Nato should already have taken position on Ukraine's eastern border.
If we do not help Ukraine now and let Russia have the Donbas and more, we only freeze the problem, and it will bite us again in five or so years, only then it will be the NATO anyway, with a reinforced russian military.

Russian state television says one of the country's major TV hosts on the channel 'Russia-1'
that the invasion of Ukraine is just a small step on the road to the great war against NATO.

Now hear this:
https://www.instagram.com/p/CcX7AVxudPQ/?utm_source=ig_embed&ig_rid=50c1a9a6-e8bb-4850-af0e-ec6df8095af7

The only thing Putin and Russia understands is showing force, now.

True time is on Russian side. This is also why I believe that NATO will get directly involved due to the threat Russia is towards it's neighbours in the west.

Markus

[Skybird]

NATO should stand on Ukraine's eastern border...? :D Well, with what...?



Maybe we should have secret negotiations with Moldovia and have them in NATO all of a sudden without Russia having time to react, and on the day the membership is annloucned and creates facts o the ground NASTO forces shuld quckstart and rush intio Moldovia and into its province Transnistria as well (its part of Moldovia, after all) - and then have the Russians stunned when they move west of Odessa.



However, that is all only academic becasue the embarassing truth is: we do not have the forces, the material and the ammo reserves to do this. Neither Germany, nor all European forces together. We have completely ruined our military structure in Europe since 1989.



Right now, America delivers more weapons to the Ukraine than all European nations together.



Without America once again being with us, we could pack up our things and say goodbye to our role in history.



Sooner or later, some n utcase like Trump or even Trump himself will come back to command in Washington, and sooner or later even without that the US will refoucs on its real primary object of attention: Asia, and the Pacific. The days when we could snuggle up to the great protector of poyur safetyx and wellbeing, are com,ing to an end. And not only are we not prepared for the time when that arranbeg,menbt ends, we also may find out that reality does not procid eus the chance to learn to adapt to the new sitruation. Debts. Recession. FIAT currency collapse. Global disrutpion of supply chains. Energy dependency, just shifting from Russia to other regimes. Ressources shortage. Environmental erosion. Sweet water crisis.



It could very well be that we already disucss here the music proram for the band thjat later this night will be sent on the deck of the sinkling Titanic we are on and we just refuse to realise it. In any case, it is indisputable that our European ship is already badly tilted, and that more and more people already have gotten wet feet.

[Dargo]

Russia Is Losing a War Against Hackers Stealing Huge Amounts of Data
Dozens of Russian companies and government agencies have been hacked in apparent retribution for the invasion of Ukraine.

https://theintercept.com/2022/04/22/russia-hackers-leaked-data-ukraine-war

Anonymous OpRussia

[mapuc]

Tomorrow and the day after tomorrow many Danish driver will see something special- From 3 or was it 4 different places in Jutland and other places in Denmark several hundred tanks, AFV and other military vehicle will hit the road-their destination is Køge havn(koege harbour)-where they will be shipped to Letland

Only once has this happened before and then it was on train..where the destination was Saudi-Arabia 1989-1991.

Markus

[Dargo]

True time is on Russian side. This is also why I believe that NATO will get directly involved due to the threat Russia is towards it's neighbours in the west.

Markus

Russia is trying to pinch off a Ukrainian salient with two major strikes from the north and the south. This will cost them a lot of material and personnel, they are already sending broken equipment back to Russia for repair. This new attack will be long not days, it could go badly if Russia can not send enough new personnel or when their supply gets in problems. Russia can not send in conscripts because that would mean it is a war what it is not it is only an operation. :doh:

[Dargo]

NATO will not directly get involved if itself not get attacked, NATO is no army to invade it is a defensive army and an invasion would take at least more than 6 months. Members that will do proxy war, yes that is already taken place for years in Ukraine.

[Dargo]

With the arrival of M777s, PzH 2000s, and Caesars, NATO has demonstrated that they are willing to give front-line, modern heavy equipment to the Ukrainians. This has many implications and shows a willingness to not just have Ukraine hold on, but win.

[mapuc]

NATO will not directly get involved if itself not get attacked, NATO is no army to invade it is a defensive army and an invasion would take at least more than 6 months. Members that will do proxy war, yes that is already taken place for years in Ukraine.

It's a hunch I have that sooner or later we will see NATO soldier in west Ukraine and near Kyiv...Not to attack Russia but to be first line of defence if Russia decide to take rest of Ukraine...again.

However something tells me they will go north after they have taken these two area Donbass and Luhansk.

Markus

[mapuc]

With the arrival of M777s, PzH 2000s, and Caesars, NATO has demonstrated that they are willing to give front-line, modern heavy equipment to the Ukrainians. This has many implications and shows a willingness to not just have Ukraine hold on, but win.

This made me remember another war a very long war.
From memory
First USA send weapons...later they send advisor...then some more advisor...then soldiers....then combat soldiers

Markus

[Jeff-Groves]

This made me remember another war a very long war.
From memory
First USA send weapons...later they send advisor...then some more advisor...then soldiers....then combat soldiers

Markus
Would that be the one many people in the US Congress dodged?
:hmmm:

[FUBAR295]

I participated in that adventure.. Started with Eisenhower, continued with Kennedy and Johnson and finally ended with Nixon.

[Skybird]

How Bubble-Olaf and the SPD squirm and shirk from their cowardly appeasement policy is no longer just embarrassing or unworthy: it is disgusting. Especially since the clear majority of Germans is against their Poltik and theirne betrayal of the Ukriane, this has now already shown several representative surveys, in which the absolute and clear majority

FOCUS has this opinion piece:


The behavior of the SPD leadership in the Ukraine war is to people who believed in the good in the SPD what the abuse scandal is to Catholics: a trust-shattering failure.
(...)
I think the Ukraine war is to people close to social democracy what the abuse scandal is to Catholics: first you look away as long as you can because you don't want to admit what you have to hear and read. Then a big hole opens up in which everything threatens to disappear that until just now constituted the foundation of the faith.

It is a tragedy what the social democrats are currently performing. Every day there are new explanations why they cannot supply Ukraine with the weapons it is pleading for.

Either there are not enough tanks. Or the Bundeswehr needs the tanks itself. Or there is a lack of approval from the Americans. Or the other allies haven't all said yes yet. Or the Ministry of Economics is unfortunately lacking signatures on export licenses. Or the Ukrainians cannot operate the heavy weapons at all. The discussion about the necessary weapons training alone is now taking longer than it would have taken for the training itself. Instead, new lists are constantly appearing of everything that will be delivered, but they never include the weapons that the Ukrainian government is desperately calling for.

All this has nothing to do with the SPD, which my mother had joined. The people at the top like to refer to Willy Brandt's policy of détente. But Brandt knew exactly who he was dealing with on the other side. Brandt had been governing mayor of Berlin when the Communists built the Wall. Before that, he had fought the Nazis. If he pushed for Ostpolitik, it was to overcome the division of Europe. It would never have occurred to him to want to appease a power that sometimes respected peace treaties, sometimes tore them up, as it saw fit.

At the beginning, I was hopeful. I was impressed by the way Olaf Scholz turned the wheel three days after the start of the war and declared the end of two decades of German policy toward Russia. It gave me back faith in the party of my childhood, which always stood against aggression and aggressors.

But the longer the matter drags on, the greater my doubts that Scholz was serious about announcing a change of era. In the meantime, I have the impression that the main thing is to invent obstacles until the matter is decided without German involvement. If Ukraine then no longer exists: not nice. But better any peace than none at all, is the logic.

What the people in the chancellor's office seem to have in mind is something like Swiss neutrality. They might even have the majority of Germans on their side. If the price of gas continues to rise, the mood could quickly change. What the chancellor's strategists overlook is that Europe's largest economic power cannot simply hide from the demands of history like a mountain people. If it does try to do so, more of Europe's peaks will slide than an Alpine peak.

When did the SPD go astray like this? The chairman of the parliamentary group in the Bundestag, Rolf Mützenich, spends more time fretting about the Ukrainian ambassador's impertinences than about Putin's plans for destruction. Longtime party leader and Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel is already pondering in an essay how to find a "cold peace" with Russia. The former mayor of Berlin, Michael Müller, warns against "escalation" because, as is well known, violence always comes from both sides.

One argument is that one would only prolong the agony of the Ukrainian people by supplying weapons. It would be better to surrender and thus achieve a quick peace than to go to war for months. Apart from the fact that it is morally very dubious when the spectators advise the victim of a violent act to keep still so that it will be over sooner: The pictures of Butscha have shown what this peace would look like. From pacifism to abysmal cynicism is sometimes only a small step.

Another argument is that Germany must do everything to prevent a nuclear war. But if one trusts Putin to detonate nuclear weapons, shouldn't one do everything possible to inflict a defeat on him before he reaches for a NATO member? First the denazification of Ukraine, then the denazification of all of Europe, or so Russian news agencies proclaim.

The SPD rightly prides itself on its glorious history. There is no anniversary in which it is not remembered that it was the Social Democrats who stood united against the Nazis' Enabling Act in 1933. Let us be glad that people like Mützenich and Gabriel were not yet born when it came to doing the right thing at the decisive moment.

One suspects how they would have argued. They stood firmly on the side of the democrats, he said, but they also had to think beyond the day. The escalation spiral must not be fueled further, he said. Now is the time to think about diplomatic solutions, he said. There could only be peace with Hitler, not peace against Hitler.

What will the post-war world think of the SPD's strange appeasement policy? Olaf Scholz may later boast of having kept Germany out of the war. Perhaps he will even be among the first to reconnect with Russia when the war is decided.

But our neighbors will not have forgotten who opposed Putin - and who only pretended to fight evil.


Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)


Verlogenes Pack. They already dream of bettering relations with their "socialist" buddies in Russia again. Life lies die slowly or not at all. That is why they are called that.

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N2cxNpoiWus

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g84DcfuGW6E

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XytI-UY57Uk

[Jimbuna]

Russian forces have made no major gains in the last 24 hours, despite increased activity, UK intelligence says.

And Moscow has yet to establish full control of either air or sea, the British update says.

Russia, however, claims a range of successes as its air force targeted multiple Ukrainian military facilities overnight.

More civilians could leave the devastated southern city of Mariupol, via a planned humanitarian corridor - though these have failed in the past.

Russian forces have resumed attempts to storm the huge steel plant in the city that's the last bastion of resistance there, Ukraine says.

Earlier, a video was published appearing to show women and children sheltering in a bunker under the steel plant.

[Skybird]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g84DcfuGW6E
Quatsch.
These dubious "news" videos from shady sources are of little, if any, worth.They represent an offensive in the media battlefield at best. The question is who runs this offensive.

At the time I type this CNN and others report of heavy attacks on Azovstal/Mariupol after Putin soek days ago said instead of assaultig it it shpould be sealed of so that "not a single fly could escape". Obviously he changed his mind and the Russian now try to storm it nevertheless.
Source for claims that the Russian attacks have been going on: Ukraine, three hours ago.

[Catfish]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N2cxNpoiWus
You know what a swine this Patrick Lancaster is?
https://www.grid.news/story/misinformation/2022/04/18/russias-favorite-war-propagandist-is-a-navy-veteran-from-missouri/

[Jimbuna]

I wasn't aware in that amount of detail so thanks for that Kai :up:

[Jimbuna]

Six people have been killed, emergency services say, after an apartment block in the city of Odesa was hit by missiles.

Russia is "trying to spread terror" in the southern port city by targeting it with rocket fire, says a Ukrainian official.

Meanwhile, officials in the devastated southern city of Mariupol say a planned evacuation of civilians has not happened.

The Ukrainian military claims to have "eliminated" two more Russian generals during fighting in the south-east.

[Catfish]

After denying civilians to leave Mariupol, Russia attacks this city again, surely to fight "the flies that cannot escape?" (seems Putin needs his daily "Mariupol conquered" show).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jPCvps8skOs

[Dargo]

After denying civilians to leave Mariupol, Russia attacks this city again, surely to fight "the flies that cannot escape?" (seems Putin needs his daily "Mariupol conquered" show).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jPCvps8skOs

All comes from the Kremlin for over 100 years is distortion of reality

[Dargo]

Ukraine is reporting another two Russian generals killed in an overnight airstrike on a Kherson region command center. If confirmed, this would take the total to 10 Russian generals killed so far in just two months of war in Ukraine. No army can function for long with such losses.

What did Nazis achieve when they occupied Europe? Everyone hated them. And the second and third generations, who are not even to blame, feel their guilt. The Russians will achieve the same.

[Catfish]

It will take some time to make the world to believe and "accept" Russia again.

[mapuc]

It will take some time to make the world to believe and "accept" Russia again.

I presume that Putin & Co has to leave the scene before this happens.

Markus

[Dargo]

There is one big difference between how Ukrainians and many well-wishing Westerners expect Russia’s war to end.

Some in the West hope for an end to hostilities, whatever the terms. Ukrainians know that only victory will bring long-lasting peace.

https://cepa.org/ukraine-wont-surrender-apologies-to-certain-europeans/

[mapuc]

20:57 23 Apr
Russia could deploy nuclear arms, but won't use them - Zelensky
Speaking just now at a press conference, Ukraine's president says he believes that Russia could deploy nuclear weapons in the course of the conflict

Zelensky added that he doesn't believe Russia would actually use them, however.

He made the remarks towards the end of a news conference he has been holding this evening in a Kyiv metro station.

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-61185469

Markus

[les green01]

i read an article Russia using weapons supplied by France, Germany against Ukraine wouldn't surprise me 44% from france 35% from guess who Germany and some on here is bashing Trump for withholding aid or trying too
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-using-weapons-supplied-by-france-germany-against-ukraine-report/ar-AAWvOWF?ocid=msedgntphdr&cvid=b53003d2529a4f6a988fbcff6ba1eb0c

[mapuc]

^ We have a saying here in Denmark-
Medens morale er godt dobbeltmoral dobbelt så godt =
While Moral is good double morale is double so good

Markus

[Skybird]

Its known since years, European firms delivered components for tanks, fighters, soldier perosnal equipment, sensors, optics, NV, France even wanted to (or did?) deliver complete smaller warships, I seem to recall mine sweepers or landing boats or something in that range. Rheinmetall and SAP (control software for various platforms) until today have running treaties for some stuff. And they are not the only ones. Russia is a market place visited by the who-is-who of European weapons makers.

:doh:

You reap what you have sowed. I always considered this kind of deal and policy idiotic, short-sighted and hilarious.

[les green01]

Its known since years, European firms delivered components for tanks, fighters, soldier perosnal equipment, sensors, optics, NV, France even wanted to (or did?) deliver complete smaller warships, I seem to recall mine sweepers or landing boats or something in that range. Rheinmetall and SAP (control software for various platforms) until today have running treaties for some stuff. And they are not the only ones. Russia is a market place visited by the who-is-who of European weapons makers.

:doh:

You reap what you have sowed. I always considered this kind of deal and policy idiotic, short-sighted and hilarious.

you have that right sky way i understand the 5th sanction suppose to block all that but i'll have to see it to believe it

[Buddahaid]

Its known since years, European firms delivered components for tanks, fighters, soldier perosnal equipment, sensors, optics, NV, France even wanted to (or did?) deliver complete smaller warships, I seem to recall mine sweepers or landing boats or something in that range. Rheinmetall and SAP (control software for various platforms) until today have running treaties for some stuff. And they are not the only ones. Russia is a market place visited by the who-is-who of European weapons makers.

:doh:

You reap what you have sowed. I always considered this kind of deal and policy idiotic, short-sighted and hilarious.

That's another aspect of the leased commercial airliner grab. Russia sources components like landing gear from western manufacturers for their domestic production so where are the spares going to come from now? Those aircraft are turned to turds now.

[Kptlt. Neuerburg]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zVcKj5B9nz8

[Jimbuna]

Ukraine's President Zelensky says US Secretary of State Antony Blinken will visit Kyiv on Sunday.

The White House has not confirmed the visit, which Zelensky says will also include US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin.

It would be the first visit by top American officials since Ukraine was invaded in February.

Meanwhile, Ukraine says eight people have died in Odesa - including a baby - after an apartment block was hit by missiles on Saturday.

Earlier, Zelensky warned he would call off peace talks with Russia if Mariupol's last defenders are killed.

Ukraine says there will be another attempt to evacuate civilians from the strategically important southern port city.

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LhxDIpr9Y1w

[Skybird]

you have that right sky way i understand the 5th sanction suppose to block all that but i'll have to see it to believe it
And I thought they wanted to boycott Russian banks decisively, but in fact only 25-35% of their potential business is being affected, and the biggest banks still do business unharmed. :doh: When they set up ultimatums, politicians tend to endlessly extend them, ridiculing the term "ultimatum" that way. It seems with "sanctions" something comparable goes on. Nobody means what he says, and so nobody says what he means.


The problem is this phrase, "one can talk about everything."

No, one cannot. There are things that are not up for negotiation, redefinition, relativization. I insist on that. A lot goes, in talking. But not everything. From some point on it turns into indifference, and complete lack of own identity.

[Reece]

Sorry I have to say this . . . I hate Russia!! :nope:

[Skybird]

I hate borscht (and beet, kolhrabi, asparagus in general...)

[ET2SN]

Sky, how about if we keep the ICBMs in the silos? :yep:

NATO needs to tread carefully, Putin has already painted himself into a corner.
I hate this stupid war, but I don't want to see all the cities in the northern hemisphere smoldering.

[mapuc]

Sky, how about if we keep the ICBMs in the silos? :yep:

NATO needs to tread carefully, Putin has already painted himself into a corner.
I hate this stupid war, but I don't want to see all the cities in the northern hemisphere smoldering.

I say give Putin a chance to leave or without losing face..For us it's not so important if we lose face or not-Not for me it ain't

From what I understand he is in a need of a victory before 9th May.
Not saying the Ukrainian should give up these two section-Donbass and Luhansk.

Markus

[Dargo]

I say give Putin a chance to leave or without losing face..For us it's not so important if we lose face or not-Not for me it ain't

From what I understand he is in a need of a victory before 9th May.
Not saying the Ukrainian should give up these two section-Donbass and Luhansk.

Markus
Ukraine only survival is victory, no truce Russia must leave whole Ukraine Putin is aware his invasion is not going to plan. When the Kremlin tells the families of fallen soldiers that their sons and husbands simply disappeared into thin air, they are generating a constituency that learns not to trust the state.

And there are signs that this mistrust is beginning to sap Russians willingness to fight and die in Putin's war this is the context in which I think we should read Putin's decision not to storm Azovstal in Mariupol. He needs to be seen to be preserving the lives of Russian servicemen.

But Russian troops are trying to finish off Azovstal's defenders and more than a thousand civilians hiding in the factory. It is not our or Ukraine task to prevent Putin losing face he made the decision, let him face the consequences.

[Dargo]

The current goal of the Russian Federation is to take the south and connect with the occupied region of Transtrinia. From a strategic point of view, if they achieved this, it would land lock Ukraine. The new offensive stalled even faster than the offensive on Kyiv. It literally is frozen and has been for a couple of weeks. Now that Russia has decided to bypass the remaining fights on Mariupol, the troops are heavily attrited. It is a cynical way to ensure no survivors for war crime trials. Also, dead heroes never argue with official stories. So that is also very convenient.

In other words, Russia has no remaining reserves. They are also losing equipment at a fast clip, and continue to throw units a company at a time. There is more. At this point, Ukraine has more tanks than the Russian Federation. Some are tanks donated from Eastern European inventories. Some are captured Russian equipment, which they are fixing and bringing back into the field. A normal military doctrine states that any offensive needs to have a numeric advantage in both troops and equipment. Russia has neither. They also keep losing general officers at a fast clip. We are to just over half who are no longer in command. Ukraine used artillery to attack a command post in the Kherson oblast, killing two generals and sending a third one to the hospital.

Losing over half of the general officers in an invasion is unprecedented in modern warfare. In the Russian military, this is likely even more of a disaster. This is a military force with a strict top-down command structure, where no creativity is allowed. This means that losing generals and colonels has a very real effect on combat effectiveness.

Units are nowhere close to full personnel rosters, and while sixty thousand have been recalled, they are nowhere close to deploying. Losses are already north of those reserves. Ukraine says it’s killed 21,000. Using a standard multiplier of three for wounded, missing in action, and prisoners of war, this leads to 63.000 Russian losses. These are the kinds of losses we have not seen since World War Two. This was as of the 21. Casualties are higher.

This means that the battle of the Donbas is literally the last possible push. At this point, it seems to not be going anywhere. Nor is the Russian Air Force have any control of the airspace. A counterattack from Ukraine will come, with the benefit of American and European heavy artillery. The only problem is that this will be a knife fight in mostly urban terrain, that both sides know well.

Armies not only run on their stomach. They rely on getting the troops what they need. Whether this is food, water, bullets, or medical support. In the case of Russian troops, cigarettes seem to still be part of the packet. The fact is that they came in for a fast operation, and are ill-equipped for a long campaign. It also tells us why the advance towards Odesa froze early in the campaign. The sinking of the Moskva is not helping. Counter-offensives are starting. And yes, there is partisan activity in the Kherson Oblast well to the rear of Russian front lines.

This intercept points to some of the issues. It is one of many: https://youtu.be/fEzPIRWyNtU

This only leaves a very unpalatable choice for the Russian high command. If we are to believe their media, it’s Weapons of Mass Destruction, which of course they will blame on the United States and NATO. Will they get stupid and deploy within Ukraine? Or will they get very stupid and attack a western capital?

If this remains conventional, the Russian army cannot sustain or replace losses. Will Putin order a general mobilization? Perhaps. That would be the only way they could, maybe, recover some initiative months from now. In the meantime, we have a series of strange fires inside the Federation, now including the governor of the Moscow Oblast.

Perhaps Putin has unleashed forces that he no longer controls. After all, the army is not happy, morale is very low, and they have neither the people nor equipment to press on. And there is more, some troops are returning home. They will not tell the stories of glory to their neighbors over vodka. The truth, together with the bodies of the dead, is starting to seep back home.

[Skybird]

Sky, how about if we keep the ICBMs in the silos? :yep:

NATO needs to tread carefully, Putin has already painted himself into a corner.
I hate this stupid war, but I don't want to see all the cities in the northern hemisphere smoldering.
Your way getting to no nuclear war seems to be that we fall back and give hi what he wants then, yes?
I say that is what encourages him and he must be deterred sinc ehe only understands the language of bruzte force and the readiness to use it.

Have you seen the movie "The darkest hour"? Its about Churchill coming to power. The movie describes the events when Chamberlain tried to plot almost a coup to overthrow Churchill sinc eChamberlain waned to appeasse Hitler even more. His argument was that if one gives Hitler what he wanted, then one could keep Britain out of the war that was looming.

I dare to say we were lucky, all of us, that Chamberlain failed to see that plan through.

Appeasement of brutal tyrants does not work. Never has, never will. Let there be no doubt in the Kremlin that if they set other European and NATO countries on fire, Russia will burn alongside with them and to its maximum brightness.

Strength is the only language here that can get us of this slippery slope towards having even bigger wars in Europe again, caused and wanted by Russia. And if thigns go bad, even a world war.

It has been said before, Putin most likely wants more than just fulfilling crazy nationalistic fairytales. He likely wnats to erect a Russian grain monopole, and he wants those gas and oil fields that were found in Eatsenr Ukraine a couple fo years ago. The tale of Big Russia is probably only the cream on top of the real reasons for the war. If this is right, than it would have been another clever trick, since all the woreld currentl ytakes it for granted that there are no material and eocnbomic goals for the attack on the Ukraine, but queer nationalistic delusions only. Wars cost money, I think the gas and grains argument to explain the Russian invasion have some validity. It also explains why they want to get all the coast. Whbat shoudl they do with Moldavia? Its poor and sad. But takign Ukraine'S access to the sea traffic takes it off the map as an economic rival in grains exports. Matching this is repeated occasional reports that Russia seems to go at great length after devastating fertile agricultural soil in the Ukraine, like Ukraine blocked sweet water delievered to Crimea and causing erosion of fertile farming land there (thats not just ruissian propaganda, but fact-checked truth).

No Chamberlainism with me. I have learned my lesson regarding Putin. I do not intend to make the same mistake twice. It would be cyncial, treacherous, and anti-everything the West claims in ideals for itself.

[Dargo]

This tells allot:

🇺🇦 Ukraine: We want your existing, stored infantry fighting vehicles.
🇩🇪 Germany: Impossible! Here are 40,455 lies why we can't do that.

🇺🇦 Ukraine: We want a drone that doesn't exist yet.
🇺🇸 USA: No problemo. Give us a week to design, develop, test, and put it into production.

[mapuc]

A reply to the lastest comment.

We do not know if China is helping Russia with material.
So far they have refused to give a clear answer to whether they are giving military aid to Russia or not.

Because if the feed Russia like we feed Ukraine-Then Russia will have a huge supply of weapons.

The problem could be troops on the ground, in vehicles a.s.o.

Markus

[mapuc]

This tells allot:

🇺🇦 Ukraine: We want your existing, stored infantry fighting vehicles.
🇩🇪 Germany: Impossible! Here are 40,455 lies why we can't do that.

🇺🇦 Ukraine: We want a drone that doesn't exist yet.
🇺🇸 USA: No problemo. Give us a week to design, develop, test, and put it into production.

According a German article in both Focus and Die Welt there's this rumour that Putin should have threaten schröder with nuclear war.

Markus

[Dargo]

Your way getting to no nuclear war seems to be that we fall back and give hi what he wants then, yes?
I say that is what encourages him and he must be deterred sinc ehe only understands the language of bruzte force and the readiness to use it.

Have you seen the movie "The darkest hour"? Its about Churchill coming to power. The movie describes the events when Chamberlain tried to plot almost a coup to overthrow Churchill sinc eChamberlain waned to appeasse Hitler even more. His argument was that if one gives Hitler what he wanted, then one could keep Britain out of the war that was looming.

I dare to say we were lucky, all of us, that Chamberlain failed to see that plan through.

Appeasement of brutal tyrants does not work. Never has, never will. Let there be no doubt in the Kremlin that if they set other European and NATO countries on fire, Russia will burn alongside with them and to its maximum brightness.

Strength is the only language here that can get us of this slippery slope towards having even bigger wars in Europe again, caused and wanted by Russia. And if thigns go bad, even a world war.

It has been said before, Putin most likely wants more than just fulfilling crazy nationalistic fairytales. He likely wnats to erect a Russian grain monopole, and he wants those gas and oil fields that were found in Eatsenr Ukraine a couple fo years ago. The tale of Big Russia is probably only the cream on top of the real reasons for the war. If this is right, than it would have been another clever trick, since all the woreld currentl ytakes it for granted that there are no material and eocnbomic goals for the attack on the Ukraine, but queer nationalistic delusions only. Wars cost money, I think the gas and grains argument to explain the Russian invasion have some validity. It also explains why they want to get all the coast. Whbat shoudl they do with Moldavia? Its poor and sad. But takign Ukraine'S access to the sea traffic takes it off the map as an economic rival in grains exports. Matching this is repeated occasional reports that Russia seems to go at great length after devastating fertile agricultural soil in the Ukraine, like Ukraine blocked sweet water delievered to Crimea and causing erosion of fertile farming land there (thats not just ruissian propaganda, but fact-checked truth).

No Chamberlainism with me. I have learned my lesson regarding Putin. I do not intend to make the same mistake twice. It would be cyncial, treacherous, and anti-everything the West claims in ideals for itself.

Agree, Putin has gotten away with a lot of invasions, enough of that Chamberlainism does not work with authoritarian systems.

[Rockstar]

This tells allot:

���� Ukraine: We want your existing, stored infantry fighting vehicles.
���� Germany: Impossible! Here are 40,455 lies why we can't do that.

���� Ukraine: We want a drone that doesn't exist yet.
���� USA: No problemo. Give us a week to design, develop, test, and put it into production.

Just a thought, but if what Skybird has agonized over for many years is true. Then Germany really doesn’t have any combat ready military hardware to offer. With the current state of the German Armed Forces as it is, they can barely fight their way out of wet paper bag.

[Dargo]

Just a thought, but if what Skybird has agonized over for many years is true. Then Germany really doesn’t have any combat ready military hardware to offer. With the current state of the German Armed Forces as it is, they can barely fight their way out of wet paper bag.

They got them, why else the Netherlands is transferring some of its German-built Panzerhaubitze 2000 long-range armored howitzers to Ukraine.

[Dargo]

Just a thought, but if what Skybird has agonized over for many years is true. Then Germany really doesn’t have any combat ready military hardware to offer. With the current state of the German Armed Forces as it is, they can barely fight their way out of wet paper bag.looks more Germany wants to say to Russians after this war "look we were not that bad as the others let's trade if nothing has happened"

[Rockstar]

They got them, why else the Netherlands is transferring some of its German-built Panzerhaubitze 2000 long-range armored howitzers to Ukraine.

I could be wrong but I imagine the Netherlands purchased the German built hardware and have maintained their investment. With the spectre of WWII still fresh in the minds of many in Euroasia. If Germany started ‘militarizing’ that would probably generate even more concern. If that’s the case Germany finds itself in the position of damned if they do and damned if they don’t.

[Dargo]

I could be wrong but I imagine the Netherlands purchased the German built hardware and have maintained their investment. With the spectre of WWII still fresh in the minds of many in Euroasia. If Germany started ‘militarizing’ that would probably generate even more concern. If that’s the case Germany finds itself in the position of damned if they do and damned if they don’t.

The Netherlands with other countries use, train as one army with Germany they use their tanks because the Netherlands has none of them anymore. Belgium and the Netherlands air force patrol each other airspace in cooperation. WWII with Germany is no problem any more it has shown after the war it handles Nazism stricter than surrounding countries.

[mapuc]

The Netherlands with other countries use, train as one army with Germany they use their tanks because the Netherlands has none of them anymore. Belgium and the Netherlands air force patrol each other airspace in cooperation. WWII with Germany is no problem any more it has shown after the war it handles Nazism stricter than surrounding countries.

This reminds me what a military expert said on Danish TV some weeks ago...NATO in Europe is not geared for a ground war..He told due to massive cuts in military spending since the fall of Soviet are now showing.

Markus

[Dargo]

This reminds me what a military expert said on Danish TV some weeks ago...NATO in Europe is not geared for a ground war..He told due to massive cuts in military spending since the fall of Soviet are now showing.

MarkusEurope tough it was not necessary to have such a large army because Russia had gone from bad to good guy they only forgot to update that doctrine they cut massive and gone too far with it. Do not say Europe needs army like after the war, modern day army has totally changed.

[Skybird]

Stories from real life:

Germany does not deliver Marders.

Ammo for Marders is produced in Switzerland (why, btw???)

Because Germany does not want to send Marders, it asked Switzerland for permission to deliver Marder ammunition to Ukraine. That makes perfect sense- for Germans.

Switzerland said No (Ha! Germany is not the only one!).

So now Germany cannot send neither Marders, nor ammunition. It got reported that instead Germany sent a huge stockpile for camp firelighters.

Russia meanwhile amasses a huge number of Iskanders at the border to Ukraine.

:doh:

Wake me up once the war is over and the world got grilled, I get drunk until then, meanwhile. There is a coalition summit in Germany soon. Or should I say: crisis summit? Some say the days of Olaf the Procrastinator and the whole government are counted. .

[Dargo]

Putin appears to hold a distorted view of the war as set out by his generals & … on Russian television, the people briefed on conversations with him said…he insisted, despite all evidence to the contrary, that his forces have not targeted civilians. If you as leader told false intel this is how you lose wars

[Catfish]

"Belarusian railway saboteurs helped thwart Russia’s attack on Kyiv.
A clandestine network of railway workers, hackers and dissident security forces wreaked havoc on supply lines."

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1518260989153751041

[Catfish]

Russia: ammunition plant and the Russia defence institute burn down


Huge fire at 'top secret' Russian defence HQ leaves five dead and 30 wounded

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/22/die-in-fire-at-russia-defence-institute

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-fires-tver-defense-chemical-iskander-dmitrievsky-1699970


Russia's biggest chemical plant burns down in second mystery fire

https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/russias-biggest-chemical-plant-burns-down-second-mystery-fire/


"Oh dear. Too bad. Nevermind."

[mapuc]

Russia: ammunition plant and the Russia defence institute burn down


Russia's biggest chemical plant burns down in second mystery fire

https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/russias-bigg ... tery-fire/


Huge fire at 'top secret' Russian defence HQ leaves five dead and 30 wounded

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... -institute

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-fires-t ... ky-1699970

"Oh dear. Too bad. Nevermind."

All 3 links gives me error 404.

Markus

[Catfish]

"Two Russian oligarchs found dead one day apart alongside their wives and children"

https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/two-russian-oligarchs-found-dead-one-day-apart-alongside-wives-and-children/

[Catfish]

All 3 links gives me error 404.
Markus
Strange. Trying again. RT.com is currently down due to Anonymous, but the others i posted? :hmmm:

https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/russias-biggest-chemical-plant-burns-down-second-mystery-fire/

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-fires-tver-defense-chemical-iskander-dmitrievsky-1699970

edit: updated links in earlier post, should work now.

[Skybird]

Same like Markus, your first three links are down (were taken down by Russian special agents, I suppose...). Your new ones work. Still.

[mapuc]

Strange. Trying again. RT.com is currently down due to Anonymous, but the others i posted? :hmmm:

https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/russias-biggest-chemical-plant-burns-down-second-mystery-fire/

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-fires-tver-defense-chemical-iskander-dmitrievsky-1699970

edit: updated links in earlier post, should work now.

Now they are OK :up:

Markus

[mapuc]

Tried to find more information about Skybirds comment on these Iskander missiles who had been positioned near the Ukrainian Border
"Russia meanwhile amasses a huge number of Iskanders at the border to Ukraine."

What I found was this

The Iskander-M has two guided missiles with a range of upwards of 300 miles and can carry conventional or nuclear warheads. The range would bring Ukrainian cities within range of the missile launchers, including Kharkiv and Poltava.

https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-russia-iskander-m-missile-launchers-1700374

Markus

[Catfish]

[...] "Russia meanwhile amasses a huge number of Iskanders at the border to Ukraine." [...] Markus
40 miles from the Ukraine border? Should take them out in a night strike.

The Iskander types were designed in the defence ministry facility, production of the ordnance took place in Kineshma ammunition plant, both burned down two days ago. A subtle hint maybe.

[mapuc]

40 miles from the Ukraine border? Should take them out in a night strike.

The Iskander types were designed in the defence ministry facility, production of the ordnance took place in Kineshma ammunition plant, both burned down two days ago. A subtle hint maybe.


You mean Ukraine should conduct a preemptive strike ?

I say strategy it would be a blow for the Russian if they manage to destroy them.

However I believe that Russia has build a stockpile of Iskanders missiles.

Markus

[Rockstar]

Munitions and research plants burning in Russia. Sure they may have stockpiles, sure it could be Ukrainian insurgents or better yet homegrown Russian freedom fighters.

But I think more importantly and equally worrisome is it happened on the invaders own soil. That ought to be wake up call for Russians Putin’s so called military special operation is spiraling out of control.

[mapuc]

This is a must read

A bizarre act just days before Russia's invasion says much about how Putin's war has gone so far.

Sunday marks two months since Russia invaded Ukraine. Most probably remember the iconic meeting four days before in Russia's Security Council, where President Putin questioned his subjects about their assessment of the situation in the Donbas. The scene was surreal.

As Putin humiliated intelligence chief Sergey Naryshkin in front of rolling cameras, all he needed was a white cat on his arm, a button for a shark tank and a pair of ravenous great white sharks under Naryshkin before we had the scene from an early James Bond film with Putin as the real life version of the villain Ernest Stavro Blofeld

Despite the bad day at the office, Naryshkin is still at large, as far as is known. Less fortunate are many of the others who have failed in Putin's eyes. They are now housed in the notorious Lefortovo prison or in the cells under FSB headquarters in the Lubyanka building. Many have been arrested from the defence and intelligence services, so the cells are likely to be crowded.

A war between fact and fiction
I mention the surreal scene because in my view it is central to understanding the war.

Russia's war in Ukraine is on the one hand bloody realism on the battlefield, but on the other hand it is conducted from Putin's fictional universe. If the generals fail to deliver success on the reality battlefields of Ukraine from the objectives of the fictional world, a one-way ticket to Lefortovo or Lubyanka is the likely consequence.

When the longtime intelligence chief Naryshkin shook and trembled with fear as he was questioned in front of Putin, it was surely because he knew that the real world would not match Putin's fictional universe. He probably had a sneaking suspicion of at least some of the problems that would await.

It has been symptomatic of Russian warfare since Day 1 that it has rested on unrealistic assumptions. It has also been symptomatic that the adjustments to reality have been too late and inadequate.

Continued objectives from the fictional universe

At the bizarre Security Council appearance, Putin spoke of "denazifying" and eliminating drug addicts. Putin's goal was to remove President Zelensky and take Ukraine quickly.

The attempt lasted for about six weeks. During that time, Russian losses of personnel and materiel were very heavy. The units that had been deployed around Kyiv, Chernihiv and Sumy were no longer combat capable.

Although military operations are now limited to the Donbas and southern Ukraine, my assessment is not that Putin's long-term objective has changed: it is likely to remain a puppet government in Kyiv. What is being talked about from the official Russian side now, however, is the "defence of the Donbas" and control over southern Ukraine. This is probably an attempt to show success before the anniversary of Russia's victory over Nazi Germany on 9 May.

Normally, I would reject the idea that something as arbitrary as a holiday would come into play for a target, but in Putin's fictional universe, I have no trouble imagining that the generals have been ordered to ensure a quick victory that can be used on the symbolically important date.

Even limited objectives will be difficult to achieve
Russia launched the offensive in the Donbas a week ago after spending a few weeks adding more forces. Since then, they have pressed on and managed to capture a number of villages in the northern Donbas.

Still, the battles suggest that Russia cannot seriously destroy the Ukrainian defences. Preliminary information suggests that the units that have been brought in from northern Ukraine have only limited combat strength due to shortages of both personnel and equipment.

Normally, it is said that a 3:1 superiority is needed for a successful offensive. Russia could theoretically create that if they put weight on no more than three fronts and Ukraine was not prepared for it. Instead, the impression is that Russia is trying to open many fronts in the Donbas.

The information available on the strength ratio suggests that the ratio in the area is in the region of 1.5:1. The Russian superiority may be greater at the town of Izium, where they have amassed the largest force.

Estimated casualty figures from the first week suggest that the ratio between the two armies is unchanged from the battles in the north: The Ukrainians are retreating and designing attack zones where they launch deadly assaults. That is why we see high Russian casualty figures.

Even if Russia were to succeed in deploying, say, three new battle groups - roughly 2,500 troops - in a week, they would probably lose close to an equivalent number in the same period. There is therefore a long way to go to achieve a workable superiority.

There is therefore much to suggest that the film set Putin has designed for himself, celebrating a new victory over Nazism before 9 May, has helped to push the Russian generals into another misstep. They might have had a chance if they had had time to build up more combat-ready units for the offensive.

1.5:1 is unrealistic mathematics for waging an offensive. At the same time, when we know from the battles in the north that the Ukrainians have been more adept than the Russians at tactics, intelligence and logistics, there is a real risk that the next thing will be the movie sets completely collapsing for Putin.

Perhaps it's no wonder that in the latest film appearance with Defence Minister Sergei Shug, Putin grabbed the edge of the table throughout the scene. It was certainly a far cry from the self-assured president who, just over two months ago, undressed his intelligence chief in pure Blofeld fashion.

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)



Reading it made me remember what Skybird said what Putin was psychologically. He(Putin) Lives in his own imaginary world

Markus

[ET2SN]

Your way getting to no nuclear war seems to be that we fall back and give hi what he wants then, yes?


No, I'm saying that NATO needs to be careful so we don't march into WW3 by mistake. :yep:

NATO is supplying effective conventional arms as it is. Something is shooting down those fighter planes and helicopters. Something is destroying those tanks. :yep:

Putin may win some battles, but he has, effectively, already lost the war. It isn't up to NATO to provide an exit strategy to Putin. NATO did not invade Ukraine. At best, what are we supposed to do? Everyone cross their fingers behind their backs as we smile at Russia? :haha:

Here's an example where NATO needs to be careful- remember that story about the Polish Mig 29s? Poland is transitioning to the F-16. Those Migs were not set up to the same standard as their Ukrainian cousins, by most reports they were already mothballed while Poland was looking for buyers (as a source of spare parts). Those Migs need a lot of work just to get airborne, never mind being useful to Ukrainian pilots.
So, let's take it to the next level. Since Poland is switching to the F-16, why not send those planes to Ukraine? Who is going to fly them? Who is going to maintain them? You're talking running a two month crash course just to cover the basics, longer if the air raid sirens are always going off. Knowing how to fly a fighter is not the same as knowing how to fight with it effectively. :yep: That takes experience and time. Which Ukraine doesn't have right now.

NATO needs to concentrate on what is effective for Ukraine right now. That may seem harsh at times, and it often is, but it would be worse if this war spreads to the rest of the northern hemisphere. Remember, it was Putin who started this mess. :yep:

[ET2SN]

You mean Ukraine should conduct a preemptive strike ?

I say strategy it would be a blow for the Russian if they manage to destroy them.

However I believe that Russia has build a stockpile of Iskanders missiles.

Markus

There's been nothing preemptive about this for a couple of months now. :03:

Military targets in Russia are fair game for Ukraine, provided they can get there. If an apartment complex near Kiev gets leveled, the same thing could happen to an apartment complex near Moscow.

If I was a government official in Belarus, I would be very nervous. You share a common boarder with people who look just like you, dress just like you, and speak a common language. The only difference is that one group is a LOT more p####d off because an invasion started off on your territory. :yep:

[Jimbuna]

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken says Russia is trying to brutalise parts of Ukraine but failing in its war aims.

He was speaking after meeting President Zelensky in Kyiv on Sunday - the highest-level US visit since Russia's invasion began.

US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin, who also went to Kyiv, said the US wanted to see Russia militarily weakened.

Five railway stations have come under attack in central and western Ukraine, according to officials.

Strikes reportedly hit Krasne, near Lviv in the west, and Zhmerynka and Kozyatyn in central Ukraine, with reports of casualties.

Russia says it will suspend attacks on the Azovstal steel plant in Mariupol at 12:00 UK time to allow civilians to leave.

But people who escaped the city recently tell the BBC they were held in Russian-run processing centres that resembled concentration camps.

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_y-3AjtBMGo

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uaeqaqNyDFA

[mapuc]

A comment to an article from Guardian on FB made me curious

Will Russia use the fire on this refinery as a false flag and accuse NATO for being behind. ?

Personally I doubt it. But then as mention in my former comment where I had translated an article from a Danish newspaper.

"When the longtime intelligence chief Naryshkin shook and trembled with fear as he was questioned in front of Putin, it was surely because he knew that the real world would not match Putin's fictional universe. He probably had a sneaking suspicion of at least some of the problems that would await. "

Markus

[Skybird]

No, I'm saying that NATO needs to be careful so we don't march into WW3 by mistake. :yep:
I think that question is decided by Putin, and him alone. No matter whether we provoke him or not. He makes his own reality in his head.


NATO is supplying effective conventional arms as it is. Something is shooting down those fighter planes and helicopters. Something is destroying those tanks. :yep:
Yes, but the battlefield in th Donbass is different than that around Kiev. Less forest, for exmaple. The battle dynamics are different. At Kyiv, Ukrainian troops laid in ambush and let Russian columns (due to the terrain and infrastructure necessarily in vulnerable columns) pass them, then shot them into their flanks from hidden ambush sites. That is different now, the Russian stay at dfistances that force the Ukrianians to close in on them to get them enbgaged. Before, the Russaiansd came to them, now they need to get to the Russian more, and then Russian are spread now. The topogrpahy is better for Russian., but the wetaher and ground conditions may be changing. I do not know how the groudn currently is for heavy tracks.



Putin may win some battles, but he has, effectively, already lost the war. It isn't up to NATO to provide an exit strategy to Putin. NATO did not invade Ukraine. At best, what are we supposed to do? Everyone cross their fingers behind their backs as we smile at Russia? :haha:
And this means exactly what now? :06:





Here's an example where NATO needs to be careful- remember that story about the Polish Mig 29s? Poland is transitioning to the F-16. Those Migs were not set up to the same standard as their Ukrainian cousins, by most reports they were already mothballed while Poland was looking for buyers (as a source of spare parts). Those Migs need a lot of work just to get airborne, never mind being useful to Ukrainian pilots.
So, let's take it to the next level. Since Poland is switching to the F-16, why not send those planes to Ukraine? Who is going to fly them? Who is going to maintain them? You're talking running a two month crash course just to cover the basics, longer if the air raid sirens are always going off. Knowing how to fly a fighter is not the same as knowing how to fight with it effectively. :yep: That takes experience and time. Which Ukraine doesn't have right now.
Yes, thats why I too think its no option to send Leopard-2s and Falcons or Eurofighters, but one should send T-72 and Fulcrums and Howitzers. I am not sure on the Marders, however, they are ot as complex in needecd crew itneraction and gun handling as Leopards. Still, soem training is needed, no doubtk,l they are no BMPs. The Fulcrums may be old and need long maintenance, but at least they are flying. Eurofighters not beign there will certainly log not a single flight hour. 50% of something is more than 100% of nothing.


NATO needs to concentrate on what is effective for Ukraine right now. That may seem harsh at times, and it often is, but it would be worse if this war spreads to the rest of the northern hemisphere.
Yes. No. I struggle to get the connection, relation or implication you seem to make there. :06:

[mapuc]

Sweden and Finland have agreed to apply for a possible NATO membership at the same time, which could happen as early as mid-May, according to information from the Finnish newspaper Iltalehti.

Swedish government sources confirm the information to Expressen.

It is the Swedish government that should have wanted a NATO application to be sent simultaneously from the two countries, something they now agree on, according to the Finnish newspaper.

They must also have agreed to announce a possible application in week 20, ie between 16 and 22 May, the same week as the Finnish president, Sauli Niinistö, is going on a state visit to Sweden.

Markus

[Dargo]

Sweden and Finland have agreed to apply for a possible NATO membership at the same time, which could happen as early as mid-May, according to information from the Finnish newspaper Iltalehti.

Swedish government sources confirm the information to Expressen.

It is the Swedish government that should have wanted a NATO application to be sent simultaneously from the two countries, something they now agree on, according to the Finnish newspaper.

They must also have agreed to announce a possible application in week 20, ie between 16 and 22 May, the same week as the Finnish president, Sauli Niinistö, is going on a state visit to Sweden.

MarkusTo shield them, Stoltenberg said NATO member countries might be prepared to provide a security guarantee to cover the two neutral nations from when they announce a possible membership bid until their applications are endorsed.

Swedish media report that Stockholm has received "concrete promises" from the United States and Britain on security guarantees for the period of the decision on the country's entry into NATO.

[Skybird]

Yep, that shielding is extremely important nowadays, with Putin having proven to be on a rabid run. Already ten days ago or so it was reported that Russia had started extensive and unusual movement of forces at and towards the Finnish border. Hopefully only an attemept to intimidate the Fins. That was at a time when the news speculated extensively on whether or not Finland would apply for membership indeed.

Its a risky but I think necessary decision by Finland (and Sweden). Putin has proven he needs no provocation to behave as if it had been provoked.

For NATO, these two candidates, different to some other recent new members, are net contributors of substantial fighting power and modern technology, and are highly welcomed. Both countries can field substantial and robust military assets in the air and on and under the sea, and in case of Finland really impressive ground forces as well, with huge reserves possible to be called up that can be FULLY EQUIPPED, not just served with third class material with rust and dust on it. Very welcomed new two members these are! :Kaleun_Applaud: Putin cannot like one bit of what he has acchieved there. Not one bit. Even better, both countries' forces have already extensively trained with and according to NATO standards. Their integration should be easy running, smooth as silk.

Very welcomed! Very good news for NATO! Absolutely a net gain for NATO, both of them!

(As an SPB player I just love those CV-line of IFVs the Swedish and Fins have, CV-35 and CV-40):) In the sim, these rock. )

[mapuc]

Add paranoia to his (forgot what they call it)

"
On Monday, Russian President Vladimir Putin held a press conference in which he accused the West of trying to kill Russian journalists.

- This morning, the Federal Security Service stopped the activities of a terrorist group that was planning to attack and kill a famous Russian TV journalist, Putin said at the press conference.

This is reported by Reuters, which has not been able to verify the Russian accusations.

It was reportedly Russian TV journalist Vladimir Solovyev whom the group wanted to kill. Last week he went on Russian television and announced that Nato would be destroyed.

He is known to be an indirect spokesman for the Russian government and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Terrorist group detained
According to the Russian news agency Interfax, members of a nationalist group are behind the plans to kill the Russian TV journalist.

The group was reportedly acting on the orders of Ukrainian spies who, in collaboration with the West, are trying to destroy Russia from within.

Putin stated at the press conference that such attempts will fail.

Ukraine rejects
The Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) has rejected Putin's accusations on Telegram.

They say they are not behind plans to kill Russian TV journalist Vladimir Solovyev.
"

Markus

[mapuc]

Yep, that shielding is extremely important nowadays, with Putin having proven to be on a rabid run. Already ten days ago or so it was reported that Russia had started extensive and unusual movement of forces at and towards the Finnish border. Hopefully only an attemept to intimidate the Fins. That was at a time when the news speculated extensively on whether or not Finland would apply for membership indeed.

Its a risky but I think necessary decision by Finland (and Sweden). Putin has proven he needs no provocation to behave as if it had been provoked.

For NATO, these two candidates, different to some other recent new members, are net contributors of substantial fighting power and modern technology, and are highly welcomed. Both countries can field substantial and robust military assets in the air and on and under the sea, and in case of Finland really impressive ground forces as well, with huge reserves possible to be called up that can be FULLY EQUIPPED, not just served with third class material with rust and dust on it. Very welcomed new two members these are! :Kaleun_Applaud: Putin cannot like one bit of what he has acchieved there. Not one bit. Even better, both countries' forces have already extensively trained with and according to NATO standards. Their integration should be easy running, smooth as silk.

Very welcomed! Very good news for NATO! Absolutely a net gain for NATO, both of them!

(As an SPB player I just love those CV-line of IFVs the Swedish and Fins have, CV-35 and CV-40):) In the sim, these rock. )

The Swedish Prime Minister had to give promises to get a majority in the Swedish Parliament.
Such as
No foreign troops stationed on Swedish ground in peacetime.
No nukes on Swedish ground in Peacetime.- This has to be discussed the day it happens-Russia attack Sweden after they have joined NATO.

Markus

[Dargo]

The Netherlands was one of the first European countries to pledge significant military aid to Ukraine before Russia launched its invasion of the country on the 24th of February. This aid consisted of two Thales Squire ground surveillance radars, five AN/TPQ-36 Firefinder weapon-locating radars, two SeaFox autonomous underwater vehicles for mine detection, 100 (anti-materiel) sniper rifles along with 30,000 rounds of ammunition, and 3000 helmets and 2000 flack jackets. [1] After the invasion had commenced, an additional aid package that included 50 Stinger MANPADS launchers with 200 missiles and 50 Panzerfaust 3 RPGs along with 400 rockets was quickly announced. [2] Not much later, the Dutch Minister of Defence announced it would no longer provide details on arms deliveries to Ukraine to safeguard operational security. [3]

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/04/beyond-call-dutch-arms-deliveries-to.html

[Skybird]

In the conflict region of Transnistria bordering Ukraine, the Ministry of State Security has been shelled, according to local authorities. According to the report, the building in the Transdniestrian capital Tiraspol was damaged by explosions. Photos, whose authenticity could not be verified, showed smashed windows and a shattered entrance. Authorities said Monday that the building had been shelled with anti-tank ammunition. No one was harmed because of a day off from work, they said. Russia has deployed soldiers in the region that broke away from Moldova.

Moldovan authorities said in the capital Chisinau that it was not clear who had fired. However, it was clearly a provocation aimed at destabilizing the situation in the conflict region. Neighboring Ukraine, which faces a Russian war of aggression, blamed Moscow for the shelling.

Ukrainian military intelligence in Kiev accused Russia of trying to stir up panic with this provocation. According to the statement, troops stationed in Transnistria could try to attack Ukraine from there in the direction of the Black Sea city of Odessa. In a statement published in Kiev, the intelligence service recalled a statement made last Friday by a Russian commander who had openly spoken of Moscow's desire to bring all of southern Ukraine under its control, all the way to Transnistria.


There is a Russian minority everywhere, which Russia has to defend by invasion and war of aggression. Even in East Germany. :-?

[Catfish]

[...] agree with all here [...]

There is a Russian minority everywhere, which Russia has to defend by invasion and war of aggression. Even in East Germany. :-?

And don't forget the Nazis that have to be denazified. From Kyiv to Berlin, to Lisbon.

Fun fact:
In Ukraine 2,1 percent voted for the far right nazis in the last election.
In France it was 41 percent.

[Dargo]

In the conflict region of Transnistria bordering Ukraine, the Ministry of State Security has been shelled, according to local authorities. According to the report, the building in the Transdniestrian capital Tiraspol was damaged by explosions. Photos, whose authenticity could not be verified, showed smashed windows and a shattered entrance. Authorities said Monday that the building had been shelled with anti-tank ammunition. No one was harmed because of a day off from work, they said. Russia has deployed soldiers in the region that broke away from Moldova.

Moldovan authorities said in the capital Chisinau that it was not clear who had fired. However, it was clearly a provocation aimed at destabilizing the situation in the conflict region. Neighboring Ukraine, which faces a Russian war of aggression, blamed Moscow for the shelling.

Ukrainian military intelligence in Kiev accused Russia of trying to stir up panic with this provocation. According to the statement, troops stationed in Transnistria could try to attack Ukraine from there in the direction of the Black Sea city of Odessa. In a statement published in Kiev, the intelligence service recalled a statement made last Friday by a Russian commander who had openly spoken of Moscow's desire to bring all of southern Ukraine under its control, all the way to Transnistria.


There is a Russian minority everywhere, which Russia has to defend by invasion and war of aggression. Even in East Germany. :-?

Let's hope Putin is told to open a new Transnistria front, let him make that mistake :har: imagine the lengthy supply lines

[mapuc]

Speaking to Russian news agencies, he criticised Kyiv's approach to the talks, adding: "Good will has its limits. But if it isn't reciprocal, that doesn't help the negotiation process.

https://www.barrons.com/news/russia-s-lavrov-warns-of-real-danger-of-world-war-iii-01650917407

Markus

[Catfish]

Cardboard and egg cartons as armour. While the real thing was sold elsewhere to make Putin and his oligarchs rich..
And Russia calls Ukraine corrupt :haha:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kAp9lPRbmoc

Almost feel sorry for russian soldiers.

[Skybird]

DW Germany:

Germany will supply Ukraine with Gepard anti-aircraft tanks. Defense Minister
Christine Lambrecht said at the start of a meeting of heads of departments of allied countries at the U.S. Ramstein base in Rhineland-Palatinate that the German government had decided this on Monday. The arms manufacturer Krauss-Maffei Wegmann (KMW) is to be given the green light to sell the technically refurbished anti-aircraft tanks from former Bundeswehr stocks. The Federal Security Council, chaired by Chancellor Olaf Scholz, formally decides on the approval of export applications from the arms industry.

Krauss-Maffei Wegmann has a mid-double-digit number of these tanks from the disbanded German Army Air Defense. The Gepard can engage aerial targets such as aircraft, helicopters, drones or missiles at a range of up to six kilometers with its two 35-millimeter machine guns. It can also be used in combat against ground targets.

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (http://www.DeepL.com/Translator) (free version)

What they dont say is a word on the timetable...


The Gepard is a capable and nasty platform. But also a high profile missile-attractor, like every air defence system like this.

[Jimbuna]

[B]


What they dont say is a word on the timetable...

Precisely :hmmm:

[Jimbuna]

Donald Trump has warned the world is heading for nuclear war if ‘stupid’ leaders aren’t careful, saying he would tell Vladimir Putin ‘we have far more powerful weapons than you’ if he were still in charge.

The former US president stuck to his assertion that he could have prevented the Russian invasion of Ukraine tonight in a heavily anticipated interview with Piers Morgan.

When asked if he threatened the Russian leader with US nuclear arms while in power, he refused to give a definitive answer but added: ‘I threatened him like he has never been threatened before.

‘I told him what our response would be, and he said, “Really”. And I said, “Really”.’
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/trump-warns-stupid-world-leaders-of-nuclear-war-as-he-reveals-how-hed-deal-with-putin/ar-AAWACrL?ocid=mailsignout&li=BBoPWjQ

[Skybird]

Cardboard and egg cartons as armour. While the real thing was sold elsewhere to make Putin and his oligarchs rich..
And Russia calls Ukraine corrupt :haha:

Almost feel sorry for russian soldiers.


They are just too late, thats all. In the medieval, in either China or Japan there was a time when they ideed used - paper armour. A sheet of paper was folded several times until it had half the size of a handpalm. Now, many such scales were made, and even waxed/oiled, to help them resist a bit longer to rain, the only big enemy to this armor: water. Many such scales were made, and stitched together like European and Middle Eastern scaled armour made of metal and leather. Just that this was lighter, faster to make, and cheap, and did not exhaust with its weight the soldier wearing it. Surprise, surprise: this paper armour was EXTREMELY effective against sword strikes and arrow's tips! A fully swung blow with a sharp sword could not cut through it! Arrows as used in that time in that place could not penetrate it!

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_gMcG1iaa70

[Catfish]

They are just too late, thats all. In the medieval, in either China or Japan there was a time when they ideed used - paper armour. [...] A fully swung blow with a sharp sword could not cut through it! Arrows as used in that time in that place could not penetrate it!
All good and well but we are speaking of supposed reactive armour on tanks using special pockets loaded with explosives, but instead filled with egg cartons..

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qOpWXoRsDPE

[Skybird]

All good and well but we are speaking of supposed reactive armour on tanks using special pockets loaded with explosives, but instead filled with egg cartons..
You mean - there is a difference...? :88)

:O:
Well, the way Russia proideuces its reative amrour maybe is indicative for other military production as well. Cheap, cheaper, the cheapest. Somehow it must eb expok,ained how a country with a defence budget less than 15% bigger only than that of the UK, France or Germany nevertheelss can field military forces with numerical numbers outclassing that of all Europe.

Serious, it makes no sense if they publish tables with yearly national defence budgets from all world - and they do not standardize these nubmers to counter the different production costs, loans for factory workers, national market competition and different levels of corruption, and the state leader being able or not to simply command what gets produced and what not. If all this gets reflected, then for example the Chinese and Russian defence budget would be massively, very massively corrected upwards. Probably by factors.

[Jimbuna]

UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres has called for a ceasefire in Ukraine ahead of talks with Russia's Vladimir Putin later.

Speaking after a meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, Guterres says he is visiting Moscow as a "messenger of peace"

It comes after Lavrov warned of a "real" threat of World War Three breaking out.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba has dismissed this, saying Lavrov is just trying to "scare the world off supporting Ukraine"

And UK Armed Forces minister James Heappey says he does not think there is an imminent threat of escalation.

However Heappey says he supports strikes on targets within Russian territory by Ukrainian forces to disrupt supply lines.

Fresh explosions have been reported in the Moldovan breakaway region of Transnistria, which neighbours Ukraine.

[mapuc]

A few input from what I have heard and read in Danish newspaper.

1. We are in fact at war with Russia we fight it by proxy.

2. The threat about WWIII could mean that Russia is preparing an exit from Ukraine Russia know they will gain nothing with a war with NATO.

Markus

[Dargo]

A few input from what I have heard and read in Danish newspaper.

1. We are in fact at war with Russia we fight it by proxy.

2. The threat about WWIII could mean that Russia is preparing an exit from Ukraine Russia know they will gain nothing with a war with NATO.

Markus

1. It was already a proxy war before the invasion.

2. Let's hope.

[Dargo]

U.S. intel helped Ukraine protect air defenses, shoot down a Russian plane carrying hundreds of troops
Ukrainian forces have used specific coordinates shared by the U.S. to direct fire on Russian positions and aircraft, current and former officials tell NBC News.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/us-intel-helped-ukraine-protect-air-defenses-shoot-russian-plane-carry-rcna26015

[Dargo]

Cardboard and egg cartons as armour. While the real thing was sold elsewhere to make Putin and his oligarchs rich..
And Russia calls Ukraine corrupt :haha:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kAp9lPRbmoc

Almost feel sorry for russian soldiers.

This is the normal in Russian army, the higher ranks can steal the most.

[Dargo]

Poland's state-owned gas and oil company PGNiG says Gazprom will stop delivering gas to Poland as of tomorrow morning. Earlier, Polish media reported, based on anonymous sources, that gas deliveries from Russia have been stopped. According to PGNiG, Gazprom is in breach of contract and will take steps to restore gas deliveries.

Poland's climate minister, in response to reports in Polish media, already said in a tweet https://twitter.com/moskwa_anna/status/1518985178663817216 that Poland's gas storages are 76 percent full and that Poland need not fear a lack of gas. Currently, Poland gets about 60 percent of its gas from Russia. The contract with Gazprom for gas through the Yamal pipeline would be terminated at the end of this year anyway on Poland's initiative. In October, a pipeline is expected to be ready whereby Poland gets gas through Norway. Poland is also putting more effort into liquefied gas.

The halt to gas deliveries via the Yamal pipeline may have to do with Poland's refusal to pay for Russian gas directly or indirectly in rubles. A few weeks back, Russian President Putin decided by decree that countries buying Russian gas must open a ruble account at the bank of gas supplier Gazprom.

That bank will then convert deposits in euros or dollars into rubles. Recipients of gas are against that construction, because their contracts with Russia often include the option of paying in their own currency. Poland today reiterated its unwillingness to comply with the Russian demand.

Poland also put fifty Russian oligarchs and companies including Gazprom on a sanctions list today. That list comes on top of sanctions agreed upon in the EU context.

[mapuc]

U.S. intel helped Ukraine protect air defenses, shoot down a Russian plane carrying hundreds of troops
Ukrainian forces have used specific coordinates shared by the U.S. to direct fire on Russian positions and aircraft, current and former officials tell NBC News.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/us-intel-helped-ukraine-protect-air-defenses-shoot-russian-plane-carry-rcna26015

Your comment and the article made me remember a scene from The Hunt for Red October...

I try to remember what this officer said to Dr Ryan while they were standing outside... and looking out on the other warships.

Markus

[Dargo]

After Poland, Bulgaria is also confronted with Russia's shutting off of its gas supply. Bulgaria has been told by the Russian gas producer Gazprom that as of tomorrow no more gas will be delivered, the Bulgarian Energy Minister has announced. The minister added that Gazprom's demand that henceforth the delivered gas be paid for in rubles amounts to a breach of contract. Also in the case of Poland, the cessation of gas deliveries seems to be related to the Polish refusal to settle in rubles.

[Catfish]

What if the whole world just declares war on Russia.

[Skybird]

Are the German Gepards (=Cheetah) anothe rGerman smokescreen only?

NZZ:


(...)
50 examples of the Gepard, which has been decommissioned by the German armed forces, had already been offered by the Krauss-Maffei Wegmann defense company in February. Now they may be exported to Ukraine.

The "Gepard" had been taken out of service by the Bundeswehr more than a decade ago. In 2012, the Army Air Defense operating with it was completely disbanded. In combat, the "Gepard" is used to protect other tanks by providing close air defense. However, it can also engage ground targets. "The Gepard is exactly what Ukraine needs right now to secure airspace from the ground," Lambrecht said. Her U.S. counterpart Austin also welcomed Berlin's decision, calling it a significant contribution.

In Germany itself, however, there was not only applause. CDU defense politician Henning Otte, for example, called the delivery of the "Cheetahs" a smokescreen. "The rational is transparent. Pretending to deliver heavy weapons, but at the same time making sure they can't be used in the field in time." So take the system with the longest training time and the most complicated logistics chain.
Many German observers also expressed surprise that the "Cheetahs," of all things, are the first to deliver heavy weapons from Germany. At the beginning of the month, even FDP MP Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann, who advocates more robust deliveries, had dismissed the idea. "People are saying that there are 50 cheetahs standing around at a certain company. But we can't deliver them because there's no more ammunition for them. There is a lot of talk, sometimes a lot of nonsense," said the chairwoman of the defense committee.
(...)

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (http://www.DeepL.com/Translator) (free version)

[Skybird]

FOCUS writes on the gas blackmailing by Russia:

Russia has stopped gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria. The reason given was that Poland and Bulgaria were not paying for the supplies in rubles, as required by a decree issued by President Putin. This is, of course, a bogus reason, because unilateral decrees cannot change contracts concluded by both sides - and payment in dollars or euros is agreed in them.

Behind this facade lies the real event: Russia is continuing its policy of violent blackmail, this time not by military but by economic means. In doing so, the country, which until now has carefully cultivated its reputation as a reliable supplier of energy sources, has also deprived itself of this reputation.

With these measures, Russia is trying to punish individual states in order to break up the unity of the European states in this way. "Divide and rule" is a power-political concept that Russia pursues time and again. Stirring up strife, spreading fear and creating insecurity is Russia's strategy.

However, it is up to the reactions in the EU states whether this attempt can be successful or not. The measure belongs in the context of other escalating steps by Russia: more troops are being led into the fighting inside Ukraine; the number of missile attacks also in western Ukraine increased; the language of the Russian leadership escalated further: a Third World War was imminent; Great Britain was threatened with retaliation.

Along the way, President Putin seeks to maintain escalation dominance. He strives to make any failure unseen through martial posturing and action. Under no circumstances does he want to get out of the war without success - this includes, as a first step, extensive territorial gains that Ukraine is supposed to concede to him.

The contact group of more than 40 states meeting in Ramstein on Tuesday, which will now meet monthly, is trying to help Ukraine prevent this. Even Chancellor Scholz, who always speaks with restraint, ruled out a Russian dictatorial peace. President Putin has now opened the conflict on the energy front as well.

While the Polish government claims to have prepared for this situation for a long time and to have well-filled gas storage facilities, Bulgaria still covers 90 percent of its gas needs from supplies from Russia. Bulgaria also emphasizes that there will be no acute problems. Russia's actions will further accelerate the now high-pressure search for alternative energy sources in Europe.

Alternative sources of oil supplies have now been found, so that even an oil embargo against Russia seems possible in the next few months without having too serious an economic impact, according to German Economics Minister Habeck.

The Russian attack on Ukraine had triggered a policy in the EU to become independent of Russian energy supplies. This is the opposite of what President Putin wanted to achieve. Because he is gradually losing influence on the European economy. He is then left only with disinformation campaigns to divide European societies.

But even these have lost their impact because of the damage Putin has done to Russia's reputation and culture. Russia is losing not only revenue but also prestige as a result of Putin's actions. For cooperative ventures, the latter is often the higher good. After all, contracts with Russia now have the whiff of the arbitrary after Russia became unfaithful to the contract.

Could Germany also experience a halt in gas deliveries? Until a few months ago, the assumption was that there was mutual dependence: Germany needs gas, Russia needs the revenues. This assumption, still held by some, is now being questioned. Gerhard Schröder has led them, or so he says, in supporting Rosneft's continued purchase of the oil refinery in Schwedt.

As recently as November 2021, the Russian company, whose supervisory board Schröder chairs, had bought Shell's 37.5 percent stake, meaning it currently owns almost 92 percent of the refinery. The German Federal Cartel Office gave its approval in February 2022, and the Federal Ministry of Economics is still reviewing the takeover.

Rosneft's website said, "The increase in the stake in PCK Refinery is evidence of the strategic importance that the German market holds for Rosneft. The company relies on long-term relationships with its German partners, ensures timely and reliable supply of raw materials and modernizes more important refining facilities." A few months later, the task of re-securing gasoline supplies to Poland and northeastern Germany looms.

In the much-publicized interview Gerhard Schröder gave to the "New York Times," he said: Even now, two months after the war began, Schröder believes that Russian gas and oil will continue to flow in any case. The government should not impose an energy embargo, he said. "My advice is to think about what an export-dependent economy can still handle and what it can no longer handle," he said. And if Russia turns off the tap? "That won't happen," Schröder said. But if it did, "then I would resign."

Does that apply now? Or only when Germany is affected? The "German way" that Schröder once wanted to usher in, closely linked to Russia, has long since come to an end. Relations with Russia will now also no longer be as close economically as they were before the war.

Putin's idea of a Russian-European space that carries global political weight and on which Russia can be a world power, an idea he has pursued for over twenty years, continues to crumble under each of his actions. Russia may hurt Poland and Bulgaria in the short term, it may scare off business in the EU, and it may wreak even more destruction - economically and militarily. But in the end, Putin's actions hurt Russia the most.

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)

[Skybird]

And on the Gepards I must take notice of media reports saying there is no more ammo reserves available for them. If true, this means Bubble-Olaf announces he wants to deliver

- a Flak tank that needs months of training and is described by Bundeswehr officers as the most complex weapon system it ever operated

- a Flak tank that has a very long logistic supply chain and high demand in maintenance

- a Flak tank for which apparently no more ammunition is avilable (or so it seems, currently).

The caricature of a chancellor is bitterly detmeirned to not dleiver Ukraine "gehavy" wepaons, and where he slowly moves to nevertheless give the impression he will, he makes sure they cannot use them in the forseeable future, and he delays and slows down.

To make this clear, the Gerpard still is potent, even formidable in its realm, different to what is being reported the Bundeswehr did not retire it due to age or too excessive maintenance (which is challenging - but justg this and not worse), but because the politically wanted re-orientation of the armed forces and the assumed threat scenarios assigned it no role anymore. The whole field army's anti-air defence regiment was taken down back then, because superior politicians and knew-it-alls knew that it would never be needed again (the military always had objections).

Personally I always was scratching my head. But then, the Gepard decommissioning its a repetition of a typical German pattern, so I should be used to it...

[Catfish]

What i do not understand about german defense is
a) where are the 40 Milliarden (billion in US) Euro defense budget per year going to?
and
b) How comes that the older Leopard and Gepard and whatnot military hardware now belong to the companies that built them, when they once have been sold to the Bundeswehr? So they sell it all again a second time?
:hmmm:

[Skybird]

What i do not understand about german defense is
a) where are the 40 Milliarden (billion in US) Euro defense budget per year going to?
and
b) How comes that the older Leopard and Gepard and whatnot military hardware now belong to the companies that built them, when they once have been sold to the Bundeswehr? So they sell it all again a second time?
:hmmm:
2014:
https://www.bpb.de/themen/militaer/deutsche-verteidigungspolitik/199282/der-verteidigungshaushalt/
If true. I always take claims by the BPB with a grain of salt.

[Jimbuna]

Transnistria and Ukraine conflict: Is war spreading?

Mysterious explosions in Transnistria, a breakaway Russian-controlled territory in Moldova bordering on Ukraine, have raised fears that the Ukraine conflict may be spreading.

Separatist authorities said Ukrainian "infiltrators" were responsible. But Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has blamed Russian special services.

Russia says it is concerned. It has about 1,500 troops in Transnistria.

An official has said Russian speakers in Moldova are being oppressed.

This is the same excuse used to justify the invasion of Ukraine.

In the past two days, the Transnistria authorities say, explosions targeted:

Their state security HQ in Tiraspol, the main city
Old Soviet-era radio masts used to broadcast Russian news
A military unit in Parcani, a village just outside Tiraspol

No casualties were reported, but a red "anti-terrorism" alert is now in force, meaning heightened security in the territory, which broke away from Moldova in a brief war in 1992.

A Transnistria official said three unidentified infiltrators from Ukraine had attacked the security HQ with a grenade launcher. That claim has not been verified.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61233095

[mapuc]

Danish TV2 News writes:

War has reached whole new phase, which will be a turning point, says Ukrainian minister

Ukrainian soldiers are now ready to use new weapons in the battle for the Donbas region, it is claimed.

The Ukrainian army is now starting to use "NATO weapons" in the war against Russia.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba says so in a video message on Facebook on Tuesday evening.

And that could have a big impact on the outcome of the war, according to the minister.

- We have entered a whole new phase, which nobody had even thought of two months ago. We have entered a qualitative, fundamental new phase that no one had dreamed of: the transition of Ukraine's armed forces to NATO weapons, to NATO standards. And it's already under way," Kuleba says, according to Unian media.

The Ukrainian Foreign Minister refers to the howitzer artillery guns that the US first announced its readiness to supply to Ukraine earlier this month.

President Volodymyr Zelensky has long called for better and more modern weapons to be supplied by the West and, according to Kuleba, it was Zelensky who managed to persuade his US counterpart Joe Biden that the time was right.

- The howitzers came to us first. But this is just the beginning. Much more will come to us. And this is a historic turning point," says Dmytro Kuleba in the video.

US will give Ukraine every advantage
It was last week that Biden announced that the US is sending $800 million - more than $5.5 billion - worth of new weapons and equipment to Ukraine.

The military aid package will include helicopters, 40,000 grenades, 300 drone missiles and various types of radar. And, for the first time, howitzer guns like those used by the US Army and Marine Corps.

- Artillery is something the Ukrainians have specifically asked for because of the fighting they expect to take place in the Donbas, Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said afterwards, according to defence media outlet Defense One.

Unlike the battles in northern Ukraine around the capital, Kyiv, and other major cities, the battle for the Donbas region will be fought on the open steppe landscape of south-eastern Ukraine.

That is why the West and the US have agreed to supply the Ukrainians with a range of heavier weapons to fight the Russians.

- The terrain lends itself to the use of artillery, to long-range fire, as we call it. And we know the Russians believe the same because we also see them moving artillery units into the Donbas. So we want to give the Ukrainians every advantage we can," said John Kirby.

Heavy weapons from Germany
However, as these are weapons systems that the Ukrainians have never had their hands on before, they cannot simply put them into use.

- There are several weapons coming in that the Ukrainians do not know how to operate. That's why the training takes place in Poland, where leaders from the Ukrainian military travel to get training from the countries handing over the weapons. And then they go home and teach it to other soldiers, explains TV 2's correspondent Rasmus Tantholdt.

- That's why it's important to remember that arms deliveries aren't just effective from day one. It takes time, he adds.

However, the Reuters news agency was able to report as early as Wednesday last week that the US had begun training the first Ukrainians to use howitzer artillery weapons.

According to Reuters, the training was expected to take about a week.

The US has also previously trained Ukrainian forces to use the so-called Switchblade drones.

And the Ukrainians can soon look forward to more help on the arms front after Germany decided to send heavy weapons in the form of anti-aircraft tanks to Ukraine.

Initially, this will involve around 50 Gepard anti-aircraft guns, which have been developed for tanks.

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)

Markus

[Jimbuna]

Russian energy giant Gazprom says it has cut gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria over their refusal to pay in roubles.

The EU accuses Russia of using energy to try and blackmail countries supporting Ukraine.

It has been holding emergency gas talks to decide how to respond but says it has contingency plans in place.

Bulgaria accuses Gazprom of breaching its contract, while Poland says it can manage the situation.

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky has meanwhile accused Russian special services of carrying out attacks in a breakaway region of Moldova.

Russia's ground invasion of Ukraine is slowly making progress, the Institute for the Study of War think tank says.

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cEHBjiJJ7fA

[Dargo]

Who is dying for the «Russian World»?

Militaries are often said to be microcosms of society. As Russian military casualties from the invasion of Ukraine mount, it is becoming clearer how inequalities within Russian society at large are reflected on the battlefield. Despite Russia’s reluctance to publish information on its losses, available data show that ethnic minorities from poorer regions are disproportionately prominent among the reported casualties.

https://ridl.io/en/who-is-dying-for-the-russian-world/

[Jimbuna]

Putin humiliated as enormous Russian military losses 'will take years to rebuild'

British same-sex couple make history with Antarctica wedding
20 facts you might not know about Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Since the start of Vladimir Putin's "special military operation" on February 24, Russian troops have killed more than 14,000 Ukrainians, according to the United Nations. Ukraine's Ministry of Defence claims 21,900 Russian troops have been killed as of Monday.

Mark Cancian, a senior adviser at the Washington think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies, said in recent years Russia had produced around 250 tanks and 150 aircraft annually.

Based on estimates for Russian equipment lost so far, Ukrainian forces have destroyed the equivalent of at least two years of Russian tank production.

Mr Cancian also estimated one year's supply of aircraft was also lost during two months of conflict.

He is still analysing data for Russia's missiles, but estimated the Kremlin may already have used several years worth of production against Ukrainian targets.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/putin-humiliated-as-enormous-russian-military-losses-will-take-years-to-rebuild/ar-AAWCW9V?ocid=mailsignout&li=AAnZ9Ug

[Skybird]

The ammunition for the Gepards are again - produced in Switzerland. There are no stockpiles worth the name left, and what there is in Germany needs Swiss permssion to be sent to Ukraine. And, like with the Marders' ammo before, Switzerland has prohibited to arm the Gepards for the Ukraine with Swiss-made ammunition.



Well. After we send Ukraine camp fire lighters (serious!), the Swiss maybe could send them clubs of Toblerone, then the Ukrainians can at least club Russian attackers to death, if not being allowed shooting at them.



Imagine thise scene interpreted by Monthy Python...

[Dargo]

Putin humiliated as enormous Russian military losses 'will take years to rebuild'

British same-sex couple make history with Antarctica wedding
20 facts you might not know about Star Wars: The Last Jedi

...

LOL :D

[Jimbuna]

Fighters stuck in steelworks 'only have days of supplies left'
A Ukrainian woman who has friends stuck in the Azovstal steel plant - the last part of the southern city of Mariupol not under Russian control - says they are surrounded by the Russian army with no chance of getting out, and only have supplies left for a few more days.

Lyuba Shipovich, in Lviv, is in daily contact with her friends who are fighting in the Ukrainian military - but she says time is running out for them.

Russian President Vladimir Putin is "the only person who knows the answer" about when they will get out of the plant, she told BBC's Ukrainecast.

Fighters from the Azov battalion and the 36th marine brigade are still trying to defend the plant but "it's impossible to vacate Mariupol so they're just trying to fight and stay as long as they can", she says.

She adds that Elon Musk's Starlink dishes have enabled the fighters to connect to the internet and they try to be in contact at least once a day.

"If they kill civilians with white flags, what will they do to military personnel?", she says.

"They will get them and torture them - for military, it's better to die fighting than leave the plant directly to the hands of Russians."

[Dargo]

The ammunition for the Gepards are again - produced in Switzerland. There are no stockpiles worth the name left, and what there is in Germany needs Swiss permssion to be sent to Ukraine. And, like with the Marders' ammo before, Switzerland has prohibited to arm the Gepards for the Ukraine with Swiss-made ammunition.



Well. After we send Ukraine camp fire lighters (serious!), the Swiss maybe could send them clubs of Toblerone, then the Ukrainians can at least club Russian attackers to death, if not being allowed shooting at them.



Imagine thise scene interpreted by Monthy Python...The alleged problem with the lack of ammunition in about 50 Gepard anti-aircraft tanks for Ukraine seems to be solved: According to information obtained by Business Insider from government circles, Brazil plans to sell Ukraine around 300,000 rounds of ammunition. Until now, it was only known that the Munich-based manufacturer Kraus-Maffei Wegmann (KMW), which plans to supply the vehicles, is said to have had only around 23,000 rounds of ammunition in stock, according to Bild. At up to 1,100 rounds per minute, the supply would only have lasted for a few minutes.

https://www-businessinsider-de.translate.goog/politik/deutschland/munitionsproblem-geloest-brasilien-will-deutsche-gepard-panzer-fuer-ukraine-mit-300-000-schuss-ausstatten/?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp

[mapuc]

Another conspiracy

Yesterday I read a comment where someone claimed the only reason to why USA is helping Ukraine so much has to do with Petrodollar.

Either I put this up :har: or this :nope:

Don't know which one fits best.

Markus

[Catfish]

I'll never understand why Germany gave up the Gepard though, this still is one of the best AA or FlaK tanks that ever were. :hmph:

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_95yiXlF544

[Skybird]

I'll never understand why Germany gave up the Gepard though, this still is one of the best AA or FlaK tanks that ever were. :hmph:


:Kaleun_Cheers: We agree!

I only know "from theory" - you by practice?

[Rockstar]

I'll never understand why Germany gave up the Gepard though, this still is one of the best AA or FlaK tanks that ever were. :hmph:

Both of you are showing your age :D. Kinda like how older Americans long for the blast of a battleship’s 16 inch guns. But today those ships are just a tourist attraction at the local naval museum.

Back in the day the Gepard was a fierce little kitty however I’m afraid today it’s just an old and obsolete Cold War weapon system. Replaced long ago by many more options of vastly lower cost and much much more modern point and shoot weapons capable of being fielded and launched by one soldier with minimal training.

[Skybird]

You seem to think the Gepard's two 35mm will be used as Flak only. If so, that assumption would be a mistake.

Remember the German "Eight-Eight" in WW2, or the 20mm Zwilling (Twin). Both were used with devastating effect against ground targets and tanks.

Now imagine what a Gepard would do to an IFV, or infantry. Its combat range is 6km, the full shooting cadence with both cannons is 1100 rounds per minute. At that speed is spends all its ammo in less than 40 seconds if constantly firing (why would one want that...)

Have fun, dear slow-moving IFV - after you dated the Gepard, your remains will not identify anymore you as what you once have been.


Of those Gepards get ammo from Switzerland, that is. :88)

[Jeff-Groves]

Ever seen what a LAW or TOW would do to an 88 or 20mm Zwilling?

The best armoured Units fielded still can't match trained and equipped determined Ground Forces.

If they could? You'd have no foot soldiers today!

How much good did heavy armour do in Afganistan?

[Catfish]

^ Nope. The Gepard is still one of the best AA systems, the radar fequency is variable and it does not have to be switched on persistently (also sports two independent radar systems with consistently switching frequencies). Once a target is tracked via radar only passive optical sensors continue to follow the target.
One volley takes 10-12 shots and it usually hits at extreme range. Hit ratio is still at >= 98 percent, and those bullets will not be diverted by chaff. It also has rockets though, like the Roland or Ozelot.
So with the now freed 300.000 shots from Brazil (+ the original 23.000, +maybe some from Switzerland) this means appx. 25.000 volleys. Divided by 50 of those tanks each could fire 5.000 of them.

The tank was taken off the german STAN because there would never be a war again and because tanks are evil, noisy, and pollute the air. Anyone defending them is an environment nazi :03:


edit: Gepard was never intended to be used at the front, it is a mobile defensive platform against aerial targets at the rear, for defending depots, makeshift airbases, or marching columns on the way to the front.
If used at the front it would be certainly vulnerable to enemy ground forces. I do not think the Ukrainians will follow the russian idea for attacks in areas with no reconnaissance, but to defend in the background against enemy planes and helicopters. So it indeed is not an "offensive" weapon if used properly, and Scholz does not have to have a bad conscience.

edit2:The TOW was very effective but is now quite old, there are much more modern systems.

edit3: it will of course be vulnerable against drones, but what i saw of russian drones up to now did not impress

edit4: able to deep fording (right word?). During a military drill one red (=enemy) company hid three Gepards in a shallow river, gave a nasty surprise

[Skybird]

Yes, the Ukriane war shows the power of ATGMs, nevertheless I trsut the Ukrianians thgat once they got triane dion the Gepard they know how to use them fopr effect. The battle they need to do now is different to that in the Niorth, Kyiv. They now need big fists PLUS mobility, even more so if doing counter attacks to retake ground. Thats why they so desperately ask for tanks (and artillery).

The Gepard, btw, can still be left to pure air defence, of course. Its said to be the Flak tank with the shortest reaction time to low flying threats.

The big question marks are on ammo, and trainingtime. Bundeswehr officers point out its the most complex combat platform the Bundeswehr ever had, and that you need months to train a crew on it. It seems the handling of it is anything but easy...?! Personally, i woud, have preferred to send Leopard-1s and, most likely, even easier to re-train on Marders. The T-72 was designed to beat the Leopard-1, but a Leopard-1's 105mm can still dominate any IFV around. And it is faster and more agile than a T-72, and has better sights. It just must avoid to drive into the crosshairs of a T-72. T-72s simply outgun Leopard-1s.

[Rockstar]

The Gepard was purpose built as a anti-aircraft weapon system for a threat which no longer exists. It uses a RADAR to acquire which when activated not not only lites up the target but itself as well. Which IMO would be like placing a big “kick me” sign on your back.

Today there are several infantry level manpad systems that can do a better job than the Gepard. Plus, if the goal is targeting ground forces or armor who needs an active Radar that gives away your position when just a little “Kentucky windage’ will do. :yep:


Btw, he’s from Tennessee, but it’s closer to Kentucky than I am :D
https://oldgreercountymuseum.files.wordpress.com/2019/01/sgt.-york.jpg

[Skybird]

So with the now freed 300.000 shots from Brazil (+ the orignal 23.000)
:yeah: Have not heard of that news!? Good!

[Skybird]

The Gepard was purpose built as a anti-aircraft weapon system for a threat which no longer exists. It uses a RADAR to acquire which when activated not not only lites up the target but itself as well. Which IMO would be like placing a big “kick me” sign on your back.

Today there are several infantry level manpad systems that can do a better job than the Gepard. Plus, if the goal is targeting ground forces or armor who needs an active Radar when a little “Kentucky windage’ will do. :yep:
The radar on the Gepard is not needed to follow targets once they have been lit, the target is foloowed by optics only - not necessarily radar. And as I said: the Gepard is said to the Flak tank worldwide with the shortest (radar) reaction time. The ZSU-23 and ZSU-57 needed to track with radar much longer before getting a solution.



The Bundeswehr wanted to keep the Gepard, it had to give them up because politicians wanted it so. The whole army air defence regiment was given up a decade ago. Thats why Germany until today has no defence system against drones of any size.

[Rockstar]

I can appreciate the Gepard’s ability to optically train it’s 35mm cannon. But it’s certainly not a front line offensive weapon designed to demilitarize Russian armor or infantry. It might be useful as defensive weapon in the rear with the gear protecting supply chains. Only if Ukraine can afford the time and personnel to train their troops to use the damn thing. But, I think more modern surveillance and weapon systems already have that covered. Frankly I think the offer is just a way for others to think Germany is finally doing something.

But considering Germany is Europes largest economy which has always and will forever be dependent on outside energy resources to keep it going. If Germany overtly supports Ukraine with hardware that might make a difference. Putin would in a heartbeat turn the lights out like he reportedly did to Poland. And if the German economy collapses the rest of Europe will follow. In other words you’re being held hostage. But I also know you were warned by every president since Kennedy.

[Skybird]

. Frankly I think the offer is just a way for others to think Germany is finally doing something.
Yes, I agree. Bubble-Olaf appeases not only Mpscow, but als the left wing in his party (old people with prehistoric biographie in the anti-war movement, and a smokescreen to deiece everoyne else.


But considering Germany is Europes largest economy which has always and will forever be dependent on outside energy resources to keep it going. If Germany overtly supports Ukraine with hardware that might make a difference. Putin would in a heartbeat turn the lights out like he reportedly did to Poland. And if the German economy collapses the rest of Europe will follow. In other words you’re being held hostage. But I also know you were warned by every president since Kennedy.True again. The stopping of gas deliveries to Poland and Bulgaria in reality are a message to Germany. I think that the question is not if but when Russia will switch off gas for Germany. Olaf the Procrastinator promised in an interview with the NYT if that happens he would step down. So one can see something positive in even that. But I believe it only when i see it happening.

Anyway, Germany is heading for a deep and lasting crisis. Gas. Stagflation and recession. Debt excesses. Self-made energy transformation madness. And inflation I expect to grow further and stay for long time: years.

The good times are over. Never will it be as good again in the rest of my lifetime as it was in the past. And the globe will turn more and more into a rumble pit for the rest of this century. Including very huge wars, and very big economic, financial, food and water crisis.

[Jeff-Groves]

Germany's actions overtly supports Putin.
Let's make it official and call it WWIII and start the bombing.
"Cry 'Havoc!', and let slip the dogs of war."

[Skybird]

Germany's actions overtly supports Putin.
Let's make it official and call it WWIII ...
Not overtly, but hidden behind smokescreens. In parts dramatic economic selfinterest that is not profit greed, but existential threats. Germany accumulated a giant cluster of risks - and now these take revenge, and simultaneously. And that Russia already wages WW3 against the West I say since YEARS.

[Jeff-Groves]

"Cry 'Havoc!', and let slip the dogs of war."

[mapuc]

Damn the nukes full speed ahead

Markus

[Jeff-Groves]

We sit in fear of things that may happen.
Very much like waiting for the Pearl Harbor attack.
We all know Putin will do such an end around Game.
Hit his arse NOW! Or suffer the final Game.

[Rockstar]

The Great Heathen Army to the rescue

https://www.baltic-pipe.eu/the-project/