Here we go again-Ukraine once again

[Skybird]

The Bundeswehr put the Gepard out of service already in the late 90s. Which is crazy since it still was VERY good in its league. Several European nations also operate it - until today. But the Germans knew that there would never be a war again.

Quite some platforms got decommissioned too early for that reason.

Personally I like the Jaguar 2 missile tank, which imo was a great design for defensive positions, flat, exposing only the tiny and fully and super fast retractable missile thrower (different to the M3), full NV capable, and was heavily armed with 14 or 16 TOW. Jaguar 2 was practically impossible to directly be hit by its prey if manouvered into correct combat positions - the M3 always has to expose most of its turret and takes much longer time to reload. For the Jaguar, it only was the mast with the missile launcher. Decommissioned 2005. :doh: Germany knew that there would be no wars anymore.

The huge and for its class heavily armoured Luchs recce wheel tank also was iconic. But you know what? There would be no wars anymore, so...

[Skybird]

Russia gives an ultimatum to Mariupol to surrender until next morning.

Here is wondering whether Russia really will dare to flatten Kyiv, because of the Russian-claimed special role Kyiv plays for Russian culture, religion, identity, history. I think they aim at besieging the city and destroy its building only way more selectively than in Mariupol, and other smaller towns that have been completely obliterated by now.

There are reports that the Russians are taking the population of small villages and towns across the border to Russia by force. There is also massive evidence of rape, torture and atrocities against civilians.

[mapuc]

Russia gives an ultimatum to Mariupol to surrender until next morning.

Here is wondering whether Russia really will dare to flatten Kyiv, because of the Russian-claimed special role Kyiv plays for Russian culture, religion, identity, history. I think they aim at besieging the city and destroy its building only way more selectively than in Mariupol, and other smaller towns that have been completely obliterated by now.

There are reports that the Russians are taking the population of small villages and towns across the border to Russia by force. There is also massive evidence of rape, torture and atrocities against civilians.

About 45 minutes ago I saw a missile hitting Kyiv on a livestream The sirene was on for less than 10-20 sec before the missile hit-As someone wrote it must have been one of these Hypersonic missiles, since the warning sirene didn't have much time to warn.

Kharkiv

Today I've seen artillery firing at the city and AA gun fire shotting down something-You could see the dots from the ground going up in the air and some explosion.

Yesterday I saw a barrage of MLRS fired from outside Kharkiv and into the city.

Edit
There's also this page where you can find info about what have happened in Ukraine and where
(You can also see what has happened in USA)
https://liveuamap.com/
End edit

Markus

[Armistead]

Russia gives an ultimatum to Mariupol to surrender until next morning.

Here is wondering whether Russia really will dare to flatten Kyiv, because of the Russian-claimed special role Kyiv plays for Russian culture, religion, identity, history. I think they aim at besieging the city and destroy its building only way more selectively than in Mariupol, and other smaller towns that have been completely obliterated by now.

There are reports that the Russians are taking the population of small villages and towns across the border to Russia by force. There is also massive evidence of rape, torture and atrocities against civilians.

Pretty clear he isn't going backwards now and clearly Putin is psychotic. No telling where this goes, cuz he clearly has no soul.

[Rockstar]

When they mentioned in the News here some days ago that Ukraine would get advanced AA and AAA I came to think of this type of AA

It's from a game armA 3 this video but the weapon SPAAG does exist in real

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GkyxJUdtD4k

In a livestream from Ukraine someone wrote that something called JSOF Special forces was on the ground in Ukraine-I doubt this very much.

Markus

It’s called “time over target” the less time you spend flying around sightseeing the less chance you have of being discovered or shot down. Looking at the above video I think that aircraft could have accomplished it’s mission and made it home for tea.

[mapuc]

It’s called “time over target” the less time you spend flying around sightseeing the less chance you have of being discovered or shot down. Looking at the above video I think that aircraft could have accomplished it’s mission and made it home for tea.

Makes sense this "Time over target" thou less you are there thou less is the chance for being shot down.

Markus

[Skybird]

Its ArmA, and its AI since always has been "suboptimal" to "desastrous". There are several videos of Flak tanks shooting at things. It looks entertaining, but is unrealistic. Inb MP I assume it is good fun. Against the AI I have given up to play - its pointless. And the vehicle AI is worse than the infantry AI.

[Skybird]

Anbdreas Unterberger from Austria sums up the many opportunties in his blog when the West would have needed to set up red lines to Putin, but never did and always reacted soft like a marshmallow:


When he invaded Georgia to conquer two territories there.
When his troops had occupied a part of Moldova.
When his air force and submarines had set constant provocations against other countries.
When he had begun to throw countless Russians into prison for their opinions.
When he had dissidents murdered even abroad.
When his hackers had repeatedly attacked Western Internet networks.
When he had verbally denied Ukraine the right to freedom and independence for over a decade.
When he had invaded Crimea and eastern Ukraine as early as seven years ago.
When he had transformed a democracy - which Russia had clearly been under Yeltsin - step by step into a brutal dictatorship.
When he had successively and now totally turned off freedom of speech in Russia.
When he had only brutal dictators as friends in the whole world.
When he had intervened in Kazakhstan and in Belarus against its citizens in order to save the autocrat there.


Just a reminder of the many, many situations when the West reacted wrong.

[Catfish]

War in Ukraine: Protesters in Kherson appear to make Russian truck reverse

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-europe-60819031

The BBC has verified and geolocated this footage, but the source is unknown.

[Onkel Neal]

Anbdreas Unterberger from Austria sums up the many opportunties in his blog when the West would have needed to set up red lines to Putin, but never did and always reacted soft like a marshmallow:



When he had transformed a democracy - which Russia had clearly been under Yeltsin - step by step into a brutal dictatorship.



Just a reminder of the many, many situations when the West reacted wrong.

The one thing I am not in agreement with, I don't think Russia was a democracy under Yeltsin. Perhaps not a fascist country as it is today under Putin, but from what I've read and remember, the Yeltsin clique gave lip service to democracy but actually started off the whole "trade state assets for favors and wealth" thing. I could be wrong.

[Jimbuna]

Ukraine has refused to surrender the besieged city of Mariupol, as Russian forces targeted the strategic port city of Odesa for the first time and intensified attacks on the capital Kyiv.

Kyiv's mayor Vitali Klitschko announced a 40-hour curfew from 8pm local time tonight until 7am on Wednesday and ordered people to "stay at home - or in shelters when the alarm sounds" following the spike in indiscriminate attacks.

Meanwhile, the Russian advance on Kyiv appeared to have stalled, with Ukrainian forces also holding on to the eastern city of Kharkiv, as residents on the outskirts of Odesa who have been braced for an attack for weeks cleared debris from a Russian strike from the Black Sea.

It came as residents refused Russia's offer of "safe passage" out of Mariupol - with Ukraine's deputy prime minister and an adviser to the southern port city's mayor both saying there would be "no talk of any surrender" or the "laying down of arms".

Few details were given of what would happen if the deal was rejected, although the Russian ministry of defence said the city's authorities could face a military tribunal if they sided with "bandits", according to Russian state news agency RIA Novosti.

[Jimbuna]

In Kyiv, eight people are reported dead in shelling on a residential area and shopping centre.

The mayor of Kyiv announces a curfew in the city from 2000 local time on Monday to 0700 local time on Wednesday.

Ukraine ignores Russia's demand it gives up the city of Mariupol by 05:00 Moscow time, saying there is "no question of any surrender"

Russia had offered to give civilians and fighters safe passage out of the city as long as they gave up their weapons.

Ukraine's president has accused Russia of war crimes in Mariupol, where heavy fighting has now reached the city centre.

An estimated 90% of the city's buildings have been damaged or destroyed, 300,000 people remain trapped,

[mapuc]

A funny input
El Whacko posted a funny picture in our Funny Picture thread.

Where the world congratulate Germany for not having started WWIII.

Lets blame them anyway-Like the world did after WWI

End of a funny input

Markus

[Armistead]

As tragic as it is, surrendering Mariupol could never be an option. It would just free and release forces to attack other cities to suffer the same fate.

[Jimbuna]

OUTSTANDING

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g9ZSjvlk0hU

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZgVKVGQPLoM

[mapuc]

I copied following from a livestream I follow

"
Komsomolskaya Pravda, the pro-Kremlin tabloid, says that according to Russian ministry of defense numbers, 9,861 Russian soldiers died in Ukraine and 16,153 were injured.
"

This person then posted this
"
seems someone leaked the real numbers on accident, on march 2, the official Russian KIA figure was 498
"

I believe the one with 9861 dead is more accurate

Markus

[Jimbuna]

Aye :yep:

[mapuc]

Instead of copy the entire article I compressed it to this

"
The reason for this Russian ultimatum to the residents of Mariupol is psychological. By smashing the city, they will send a warning to the other cities about what will happen if they fight back
"

Markus

[August]

I believe the one with 9861 dead is more accurate

Markus


More accurate than the first number certainly. I wonder if it includes the thousands who have deserted.


There are lots of abandoned Russian vehicles littering the Ukrainian countryside and no bodies for the Ukrainians to add to their count of Russian dead, but the Russians might add them to their own casualty counts, which I'll bet are still under counted. I'm making a WAG that it'll be somewhere closer to the Ukrainian numbers.

[mapuc]

More accurate than the first number certainly. I wonder if it includes the thousands who have deserted.


There are lots of abandoned Russian vehicles littering the Ukrainian countryside and no bodies for the Ukrainians to add to their count of Russian dead, but the Russians might add them to their own casualty counts, which I'll bet are still under counted.


I know there is KIA=Killed In Action;
MIA=Missing In action
So those who abandon these vehicle must be classified as MIA.
Haven't seen any MIA list.

Markus

[Skybird]

The one thing I am not in agreement with, I don't think Russia was a democracy under Yeltsin. Perhaps not a fascist country as it is today under Putin, but from what I've read and remember, the Yeltsin clique gave lip service to democracy but actually started off the whole "trade state assets for favors and wealth" thing. I could be wrong.
Could be seen as like you said, but it probably was the closest to a democracy Russia ever got.
And will ever get, as I see it.

[August]

I know there is KIA=Killed In Action;
MIA=Missing In action
So those who abandon these vehicle must be classified as MIA.
Haven't seen any MIA list.

Markus


I'm not sure the Russians will make such a distinction but one thing I do not doubt is that any number the Russians publish will be under counted.

[Skybird]

I copied following from a livestream I follow

"
Komsomolskaya Pravda, the pro-Kremlin tabloid, says that according to Russian ministry of defense numbers, 9,861 Russian soldiers died in Ukraine and 16,153 were injured.
"

This person then posted this
"
seems someone leaked the real numbers on accident, on march 2, the official Russian KIA figure was 498
"

I believe the one with 9861 dead is more accurate

Markus
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-60802572


Did Russia just admit to 10,000 deaths?


The Russian newspaper KP said the lines appeared as a result of a hackImage caption: The Russian newspaper KP said the lines appeared as a result of a hackWe reported earlier that our colleagues at BBC Russian had compiled a list of 557 confirmed Russian military deaths in the Ukraine invasion, mentioning that Russia's defence ministry has so far only once provided fatality figures - 498 deaths as of 2 March.
All that suddenly changed in the last few hours, or so it seemed...
The staunchly pro-Kremlin newspaper Komsomolskaya Pravda (KP) published an article quoting the ministry as saying 9,861 Russian servicemen had died, a figure which exceeds even US intelligence estimates of Russian fatalities.
It gave the number of wounded as 16,153.
Minutes later, this part of the article disappeared from the page, but we were able to take screen grabs of the relevant paragraphs.
KP editor Vladimir Sungorkin subsequently told the BBC the information had been the result of a hack, and said the paper will post an explanation later.

[Skybird]

"And if you are not willing,
I will use force!"

https://www.tagesspiegel.de/images/herr_hund_ts/28182906/2-format1007.jpg
.................................................. ..............The master and his dog

[Catfish]

I really hope the US does not sent troops to the Ukraine.
Yes, Europe or what is left of the EU should do it itself !!
And we HAVE TO GO IN.

[mapuc]

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-60802572


Did Russia just admit to 10,000 deaths?


The Russian newspaper KP said the lines appeared as a result of a hackImage caption: The Russian newspaper KP said the lines appeared as a result of a hackWe reported earlier that our colleagues at BBC Russian had compiled a list of 557 confirmed Russian military deaths in the Ukraine invasion, mentioning that Russia's defence ministry has so far only once provided fatality figures - 498 deaths as of 2 March.
All that suddenly changed in the last few hours, or so it seemed...
The staunchly pro-Kremlin newspaper Komsomolskaya Pravda (KP) published an article quoting the ministry as saying 9,861 Russian servicemen had died, a figure which exceeds even US intelligence estimates of Russian fatalities.
It gave the number of wounded as 16,153.
Minutes later, this part of the article disappeared from the page, but we were able to take screen grabs of the relevant paragraphs.
KP editor Vladimir Sungorkin subsequently told the BBC the information had been the result of a hack, and said the paper will post an explanation later.

Hacked !? Makes me wonder How reliable are these number.
I know it doesn't go so well for the Russians in Ukraine.

To something different

I follow what's going on in the air by watching Flightradar 24 some hours ago I saw something I haven't seen for years two A4 Skyhawk-One was on it's way back to the airfield the other was flying in a stadium shaped form between Poland and Germany near the Baltic sea. Now there's only one in the air Skyhawk 4.

Markus

[mapuc]

Yes, Europe or what is left of the EU should do it itself !!
And we HAVE TO GO IN.

As it is now I don't see any reason for us to go in. If this change, if Putin decide to use chemical or nukes-then we are in a total different situation.

Markus

[Skybird]

Yes, Europe or what is left of the EU should do it itself !!
And we HAVE TO GO IN.
With what...? These?

https://bilder.t-online.de/b/50/92/15/52/id_50921552/425/tid_da/das-mdr-fernsehballett-.jpg


It setting warmer, the ground is not frozen, gets muddy. Next week or so they expect 10°C I read somewhere. There you see again many Russian soldiers sitting peacefully on their stuck tanks, whistling happily and weaving wreaths of flowers, while above their heads the shells are flying where they no longer have to or can go.


Serious, at best I can see us flying somethign in there, declaring maybe a safe border zone or something like that.



There is another concern, and it bothers me. How much logner can European natiosn afford to sent ATGMs and Manpads into the ukraine? How many fo these do they have in stock and can afford to give away without weakening themselves too much? If you order them at the industry now, the industry will need time time to make them.


It is said that germany refuses to send more weapons because the BW simply has no more, and the German industry is forbidden to talk about that German orders for the industry already got priority over those the Ukraine wants to file. Two German newspapers said that in the recent two days.



If the Ukraine runs out of ammo, namely ATGMs, ATMs, and manpads, then its a massive shift in favour of the Russians. It must not happen.

[Skybird]

flying in a stadium shaped form
I think its called "racetrack pattern".

[Catfish]

^ ^ does not matter. Next are the baltic states, look at the map and support lines.

one of hundreds on the 'net (warning graphic footage):

https://youtu.be/aAX8u3I4GDs

[Catfish]

https://www.defensenews.com/naval/2022/03/21/japan-spots-russian-amphibious-ships-traveling-between-its-islands/

Does anyone know where these ships are now? Visible on shipradar 24? I did not find them, but maybe their transponders are off.

[mapuc]

https://www.defensenews.com/naval/2022/03/21/japan-spots-russian-amphibious-ships-traveling-between-its-islands/

Does anyone know where these ships are now? Visible on shipradar 24? I did not find them, but maybe their transponders are off.

I was told that seeing a military on a map was luck-Mostly they have their ISP and other things shut of.

That's why I have only seen a few military airplane like the Stratotanker, these Skyhawk and this unmanned plane.

Markus

[Skybird]

The joys of networks - haven't I just warned of them in the F-35 thread?

A Russian cyberattack on the Ukraine'S communication three weeks ago has caused massive collaterla damages throughout Europe - and nobody speaks about it: untiul now. The damages still have not been fully repaired. The Neue Zürcher Zeitung reports:



In the beginning, there was only a serious suspicion - and a few thousand wind turbines that could no longer be controlled remotely. But now the facts are clear: there was a serious cyberattack on a European satellite at the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The goal was to disrupt the communications of the Ukrainian security forces. However, the attack also caused damage in numerous countries on the continent that continues to this day.

Details of the cyber action are still unknown more than three weeks after the Russian invasion began. The U.S. company Viasat, which operates the affected system with the KA-Sat satellite, is reluctant to communicate. But this is likely to be an incident the likes of which have hardly ever been seen before.

The fact that the public learned of the malfunction at all is due to the German company Enercon. It is one of the largest manufacturers of wind turbines in Europe. The company relies on satellite communication to monitor and remotely control its wind farms. This allows Enercon, for example, to restart the turbine remotely in the event of a malfunction.

On February 24, that suddenly didn't work anymore: when Russian troops started moving in the early morning and invaded Ukraine, the satellite connection failed at 5800 Enercon turbines throughout Central Europe. On February 28, the "Handelsblatt" made the far-reaching disruption public. The coincidence in time also immediately caused speculation about a Russian cyber attack.

Enercon's wind farms are not the only ones affected. Across Europe, several tens of thousands of satellite devices have stopped working. These are the modems that customers use to connect to the European satellite KA-Sat from the ground.

Among those affected are fire departments in Germany, for example, which use a satellite connection for their emergency communications. Or customers of Orange subsidiary Nordnet in France, who access the Internet via KA-Sat.

��️⚠️Nous rencontrons un dysfonctionnement général sur le service de connexion par satellite KA SAT.
Les équipes sont mobilisées pour résoudre cet incident au plus vite.
Merci de votre compréhension pic.twitter.com/U4jd9zwcqP
- Nordnet �� (@NordnetOFFICIEL) February 24, 2022[I]

There are also reports of disruptions from Greece, Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Italy or Morocco. Spanish security researcher Ruben Santamarta, who is following the case closely, is convinced: "Most of the area covered by the KA-Sat satellite is affected." However, he said, there were regions that were more severely disrupted than others.

For a long time, it was unclear whether and to what extent Ukraine was affected by the disruption of the satellite system. Finally, last week, Viktor Shora, deputy director of Ukraine's cybersecurity agency, said, "There was a very large communications outage at the very beginning of the war." He did not provide details. But it is known that Ukrainian security forces use the affected KA-Sat satellite system.

Meanwhile, there is also no doubt that a cyberattack caused the disruption. Already at the beginning of March, the head of the French army's space command spoke of a cyberattack. This has since been confirmed to the company Enercon, as a spokesman wrote in response to a query. According to the Reuters news agency, the American and Ukrainian intelligence services are investigating whether it is an attack by state-owned Russian hackers.

On March 3, 2022, during the @Armees_Gouv press conference, ���� French Space Commander General Michel Friedling confirmed there has been a #cyberattack against the @Via_Satellite satellite network.@Armee_de_lair @CEM_AAE

Extracts of his speech, with English subtitles ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/mlu6AuNlGo
- Laetitia (@LaeCesari) March 4, 2022

Ukrainian authorities do not want to attribute the attack directly to Russia. "We continue to gather information," Shora said last week. But he confirmed that there were suspected Russian attacks on Internet providers or mobile carriers. "I believe that one of Russia's goals is to prevent Ukrainian security forces from communicating successfully."

Disrupting an adversary's satellite systems is one of the common actions of electronic warfare. This can be done locally with electromagnetic pulses. In this case, however, the attackers apparently penetrated the satellite system and spread malicious code that put the modems out of service.

This approach would explain the tens of thousands of affected devices. Several experts are convinced that they were not the actual target of the attack. Rather, it is likely to be extensive collateral damage of the attack on the Ukrainian communications structure.

To understand how this could have happened, a brief explanation of the satellite system is needed. KA-Sat is a geostationary satellite that covers all of Europe with 82 so-called spot beams. Spot beams are satellite signals that each cover an area 200 to 300 kilometers in diameter on the Earth's surface. In these areas, mobile terminals, the customers' modems, can establish a connection to the satellite.

The terminal on the ground sends its data to the satellite, which forwards it to a ground station, known as a gateway. From there, the connection goes to the Internet. KA-Sat's system has a total of 10 gateways, which are interconnected and managed centrally by the Network Operations Center (NOC) in Turin.

The satellite forwards the signals of several spot beams to one gateway. For example, data from modems in Kiev would reach the gateway in Ireland, as would data from customers in Berlin, says satellite specialist Andreas Knopp of the Bundeswehr University in Munich.

According to Knopp, this networking could be the reason why the attack had a Europe-wide impact. He believes it is plausible that the attackers penetrated a gateway via the Internet and from there put the modems out of operation.

Santamarta, a Spanish security researcher, thinks another approach is more likely: that the attackers used a customer's satellite modem to break into the system. "The attackers could have exploited a misconfiguration to get into the internal network." From there, the malicious code could have been distributed to all devices that had been connected to the same gateway.

Russia has proven in the past that it has the technical capabilities to carry out such a complex attack. In particular, since 2014, the Sandworm group, attributed to Russia's GRU military intelligence agency, carried out similarly complex operations in Ukraine on several occasions.

In the run-up to the invasion of Ukraine, it had been expected that Russia might use complex cyber operations to cripple power supplies or communications systems as a prelude to the invasion. The disruption of the KA-Sat satellite system fits this scenario and may have been such an action. The fact that there was also collateral damage - unintentional or deliberate - does not surprise observers.

It will take several more weeks to repair the damage. There are no indications that the satellite itself or the gateways were damaged, writes Viasat. To fix the faults at customer terminals, some devices would receive updates via the satellite link. Other devices will have to be replaced, according to Viasat.

Enercon's case shows that this will take a long time. A good three weeks after the malfunction, about 30 percent of the 5800 turbines have been reconnected to satellite communications, Enercon writes. Because there are delivery problems and the demand is additionally high because of the incident, Enercon expects several more weeks until all satellite modems are replaced.

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (http://www.DeepL.com/Translator) (free version)


The writing is on the wall. When will they start to read it...?

[Jimbuna]

Authorities in Gibraltar have seized a superyacht linked to the owner of Russia's biggest steel pipe manufacturer.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/russian-billionaires-superyacht-seized-by-authorities-in-gibraltar/ar-AAVmmPs?ocid=mailsignout&li=BBoPWjQ

https://i.postimg.cc/15kW0K7T/oh-dear-how-sad-never-mind.jpg (https://postimages.org/)

[Jimbuna]

Ukraine is on the brink of surviving its war with Russia, President Volodymyr Zelensky tells Italian MPs

But, in a video address, he warns Russian forces want to break in to Europe and calls again for more sanctions from Western countries.

He has spoken to Pope Francis, and suggests the Vatican has a mediating role to play.

At least ten hospitals have been completely destroyed and fierce fighting is continuing around Kharkiv and Mariupol, Ukraine says.

Russian naval forces have started shelling the outskirts of Odesa, as part of efforts to cut Ukrainians off from the Black Sea.

US President Biden warns Russia's Vladimir Putin's "back is against the wall" and fears he may use chemical or biological weapons in Ukraine.

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4WvOQ5-oV-U

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KfYGd3Uw8NE

[mapuc]

Then I hope the Russian military will remove Putin before he gives the order to use chemical or nukes in Ukraine and before Belarus join the party.

Markus

[Skybird]

Meanwhile, calculations show that due to the last years, averaging across all economic branches and product and service groups, costs of production have risen by one quarter, generally. The consequences of the Ukraine war are not even priced into this. Its relevant due to shortages in Ukaine and Russia exporting wheat, and fertilizer, as well key ressources and ore.Most of theses rises has not fully added to the prices yet, but it will happen.

You think you must complain about the risen prices and inflation rate we see already now? Wait until winter or so, you will get wet eyes then. I predict inflation rates clearly in the two-digit range. In the long run I do not rule out inflation rates above 20%, due to several desastrous developments all coming together in time, some of them were not wanted, but some are politically even wanted.

The nice years are definitely over. The best I now hope for, is stagnation. More realistic is: decline. Hopefully not at the speed of a completely uncontrolled slide. But dont bet on it.

More and more of our politicians start to make suggestions and use arguments that were heard before, in the mid-20 of last century form the German Reichsbank. More and more its monetarian "recipes" from back then get openly repeated and demanded today.

We know where that ended back then: Hyperinflation. Social turmoil and economic collapse. Political radicalization.

All what happens today has happened before. All what happened back then will happen again.

[Jimbuna]

Then I hope the Russian military will remove Putin before he gives the order to use chemical or nukes in Ukraine and before Belarus join the party.

Markus

Not if below is to be believed.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GbH-mAjoq3U&t=26s

[Aktungbby]

Ukraine is on the brink of surviving its war with Russia, President Volodymyr Zelensky tells Italian MPs... This whole mess is a gigantic lesson 101 in proxy "brinkmanship" :hmmm: from 1950's Korea thru 'Nam, Afghanistan, Iran, Syria et al. The blow to Russian invincibility propaganda has yet to be computed... including what further atrocities they will commit to redeem it. Clearly there are no rules; including the defunct Geneva Convention. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10583341/Russian-warlord-led-Neo-Nazi-Sparta-mob-shot-dead-battle-eastern-Ukraine.html Case in point: the leader of the russian neo-nazi Sparta Battalion, Vladimir Zhoga, has been killed.https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2022/03/06/16/55015755-10583341-image-m-76_1646585367679.jpg Inasmuch as Putin has made this a war to elimnate Ukrainian nazis as part of his propaganda; he has omitted using nazis of his own...:hmmm:

[Skybird]

Russia's attack on the Ukraine takes the whole world and global economy hostage. It has not caused the root problems triggering the crisis, but it served as a catalyst speeding it up by factors.



Achse des Guten writes:




This crisis began before the war

Most recently, the political approach to nutritional status was more about creating new world-improving sets of rules. Now, suddenly, as in the distant past, the basic supply of all essential food is the issue.

Prices are rising everywhere: At the gas station as well as in the supermarket. Political leaders are preparing citizens for further price increases. Normally, it is difficult for a politician to openly announce to people that they will now gradually become worse off and poorer. But there is Putin's criminal war against Ukraine. What can be attributed to the indisputably dramatic consequences of the war, logically no domestic ruler bears any responsibility for. A responsible person, who would have had to explain and justify a crisis without war and his crisis management, can hardly resist the temptation to attribute the part of the loss of prosperity, which would have come even without war, to the war.

And signs of severe economic losses and even imminent emergencies are appearing every day. Late Sunday evening, for example, orf.at reported:

"The price shock for grain is followed by the price shock for fertilizer: the war in Ukraine has also highlighted the dependence of global agriculture. This is because Russia exports more nitrogen fertilizer than any other country in the world - and the Russian government has already ordered manufacturers to suspend exports. That could set off an economic chain reaction.

If fertilizer manufacturers comply with the Russian Trade Ministry's recommendations and actually halt international exports, it would cause significant problems in agriculture worldwide. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the Russian Federation was the largest exporter of nitrogen fertilizer in 2021."

Without fertilizer, anyone can figure, there are lower yields and poorer harvests. Food that was always and everywhere available at a small price as a matter of course for the young in this country could now become scarce and expensive. Hardly anyone knows what reactions it triggers in today's population when there are supply crises for some foods. But as long as the blame for this is put on Putin's damned war, perhaps no one will ask about the share of the domestic responsible parties for the disastrous situation. But there must be, because already last fall, when hardly anyone seriously expected Vladimir Putin to let his troops officially invade Ukraine, the fertilizer crisis was already a topic in German media.

"Rising gas price: fertilizer producers cut production" was the headline on handelsblatt.com at the beginning of October last year. And what the colleagues wrote at the time sounded sufficiently dramatic even without a war.

"The massive increase in the price of natural gas is having a severe impact on fertilizer manufacturers. Now SKW Stickstoffwerke Piesteritz is also cutting back production. The chemical company from Saxony-Anhalt is the largest German producer of ammonia, the basic product of fertilizers. Other major suppliers from all over Europe have already shut down their plants because of the expensive natural gas.

The dynamics of the gas price increase are worrying, said Petr Cingr, chairman of SKW's management board, on Tuesday evening, adding, "The level we have reached in the meantime no longer enables economically viable production." Under these conditions, he said, the company would be forced to cut production by one-fifth.

This could only be the first step if the situation on the gas market does not improve. "We demand immediate action from politicians. Without government action, there is a threat of a production freeze in the near future," Cingr warns. The consequences could be far-reaching, especially for German agriculture, which depends on the fertilizers."

"Immediate action by politicians" had to wait, however, because, as is well known, they first had to take care of forming a new government in Germany after the Bundestag elections. And the problem was growing, across the EU. At the end of October 2021, the Bavarian Agricultural Weekly reported:

"Scandinavian fertilizer company Yara confirmed last Wednesday that about 40 percent of its European ammonia production capacity - or about 1.9 million tons/year - will remain down because of the rise in natural gas prices. The plants of Spain's largest fertilizer producer Fertiberia, in Palos de la Frontera, which produce ammonia and urea, will also remain closed for another month due to high natural gas prices, the Spanish fertilizer producer announced last week.

Natural gas is the main raw material for the production of nitrogen fertilizers such as urea and ammonium nitrate, which farmers depend on to produce sufficiently high yields.

"The increase in energy prices is the main reason for the increase in fertilizer prices and may also affect food prices. This is of course a very big risk," EU Agriculture Commissioner Janusz Wojciechowski said at one of the EU Council meeting. EU agriculture ministers were discussing a document circulated by the Polish government that fears the fertilizer crisis could trigger "social unrest" in the European Union if policymakers don't stop rising natural gas prices.

In Poland, farmers have already blockaded a plant owned by fertilizer company Anwil to protest that the government is allowing fertilizer exports while prices are unaffordable for Poland's own farmers."

The German Minister of Economics is rightly desperate to find new gas suppliers, because it is clear from this news that gas prices and any gaps in gas supplies are about more than "just" the "freezing for peace" invoked by some. And it turns out that the problem existed when people still believed that gas was not about war and peace. There will be no quick solutions, but those in charge should probably realize very quickly how important it would be now to take care of the farming community and agricultural production. Lately, the political approach to nutrition has been more about creating new world-improving sets of rules. Now, suddenly, as in the distant past, the basic supply of all essential food is the issue.

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)

[mapuc]

So it's not a question anymore Belarus will soon join Russia and attack Ukraine-Said by a Danish expert in military strategy from the Danish version of US West Point

Markus

[Jimbuna]

A Russian billionaire sanctioned by the UK says he no longer owns many former properties, potentially putting them beyond the reach of the law.

Ex-Arsenal shareholder Alisher Usmanov's £82m London home and Surrey mansion were put into trusts linked to the oligarch.

This raises questions over the effectiveness of sanctions imposed since the invasion of Ukraine began.

The UK government says Mr Usmanov "cannot access his assets".

On 3 March, seven days after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Alisher Usmanov was added to the list of sanctioned Russian businessmen.

His assets were frozen, he was banned from visiting the UK, and British citizens and businesses were banned from dealing with him.

Foreign Secretary Liz Truss said: “We will hit oligarchs and individuals closely associated with the Putin regime and his barbarous war.”

The government said sanctions would cut him off from “significant UK interests including mansions worth tens of millions”.

But this is now in doubt because Mr Usmanov’s spokesman says he is no longer the legal owner of many of those assets.

Born in Uzbekistan in the Soviet Union, Alisher Usmanov, 68, owns USM Holdings, a huge conglomerate involved in mining and telecoms, including Russia's second biggest mobile network MegaFon.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-60825983

[Skybird]

Saw a pretty good 45 minute documentary this evening that was shown in change of the printed programm. "ZDFzeit: Putins Wahrheit". I missed the first 15 minutes.

Its in the Mediathek of the ZDF, and not on youtube, therefore also no German subtitles and I do not know whether or not you can see it from other nations. German sound, obviously. Some people here understand German, so...

https://www.zdf.de/dokumentation/zdfzeit/zdfzeit-putins-wahrheit-100.html

[Skybird]

A Russian billionaire sanctioned by the UK says he no longer owns many former properties, potentially putting them beyond the reach of the law.

Ex-Arsenal shareholder Alisher Usmanov's £82m London home and Surrey mansion were put into trusts linked to the oligarch.

This raises questions over the effectiveness of sanctions imposed since the invasion of Ukraine began.

The UK government says Mr Usmanov "cannot access his assets".

On 3 March, seven days after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Alisher Usmanov was added to the list of sanctioned Russian businessmen.

His assets were frozen, he was banned from visiting the UK, and British citizens and businesses were banned from dealing with him.

Foreign Secretary Liz Truss said: “We will hit oligarchs and individuals closely associated with the Putin regime and his barbarous war.”

The government said sanctions would cut him off from “significant UK interests including mansions worth tens of millions”.

But this is now in doubt because Mr Usmanov’s spokesman says he is no longer the legal owner of many of those assets.

Born in Uzbekistan in the Soviet Union, Alisher Usmanov, 68, owns USM Holdings, a huge conglomerate involved in mining and telecoms, including Russia's second biggest mobile network MegaFon.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-60825983
Slow, slow, slow. And always early annolunced os thta they cna escape in time. However, I assume many have brought their treasury in safety alreeady a year ago.


In Germany, ti doe snot go any better. Different competences of different offices block each other while the intended target of their actions get away. Stupid. Unneeded. Self-made.

[Moonlight]

I think it's intentional Skybird, some of the authorities and their civil servants are up to their eyeballs in sleaze and corruption regarding these Russian oligarchs.
If any of your lawmakers are anything like our corrupt British one's all I can say is you're as screwed as we are. :doh:

[Gorpet]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KfYGd3Uw8NE

Didn't the world hear the same thing about Saddam ?

[Reece]

This is a must see, my hat is off to Arnold Schwarzenegger:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fWClXZd9c78

[Gorpet]

Russian troops beating civilians who protest against being occupied in Berdyansk, Ukraine Mar 20, 2022

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IYnyjqtrjbc

Can we get some of those helmets sent over here to Portland Oregon USA For the Antifa protesters ? They mixed it up with Gypsy Jokers motorcycle club,And Surprise! 1 dead and 5 others sent to the hospital with gunshot wounds.In serious condition.Their first known interaction and they lost.

[Gorpet]

This is a must see, my hat is off to Arnold Schwarzenegger:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fWClXZd9c78

Why should anybody listen to this washed up Hollywood actor? Where is he today? Last i heard these actors that vowed to leave the United States if Donald Trump got elected stayed and made millions. Now that Joey and the Democrats are in charge an heading America into war again.They really are leaving heading off to exocit filming locations anywhere but the USA. Yes where is the great Arnold Schwarzenegger the immigrant who married Maria Shriver and dishonored not only her but the entire Kennedy family. Let's see if the Terminator is willing to go back and Terminate. He's old wrinkled and full of Hollywood bull****.Fnk Arnie.

[mapuc]

An article from a Danish newspaper translated with DeepL.

Crazy nuclear threat in prime time: - Empty vessels make the most sound

A well-known political commentator on Russian state TV raises the possibility of a nuclear attack in Europe, but a defence expert urges calm

Russia should drop nuclear bombs in Europe if Nato interferes in Ukraine.

In addition, Putin should consider invading Nato countries Poland and/or Lithuania to form a corridor to the Russian city of Kaliningrad, which is cut off from Russia by the Baltic Sea.

These are just some of the frightening scenarios discussed earlier this week in one of Russia's most popular political debate programmes.

Nothing left
A clip from Russian state TV shows well-known Russian commentator Sergei Mikheyev talking about what could happen if Nato interferes in Russia's invasion of Ukraine: it would spark a nuclear war.

- Brave Poles. In 30 minutes, there will be nothing left of Warsaw (Poland's capital, ed.), he says, among other things.

Mikheyev also threatens Germany and the Baltic states, saying Russia should invade Poland and/or Lithuania.

- I know there are serious problems in Kaliningrad on the border. Perhaps it is appropriate to establish a corridor to Kaliningrad, the commentator asks.

The clip has been widely shared on Twitter, for example. Among others by Weekendavisens Russia and Ukraine correspondent, Andrey Kazankov.

Expert: Calm down
But while the nuclear debate may cause nervous twitches in the West, President Vladimir Putin is a long way from words to action.

This is the assessment of Peter Viggo Jakobsen, associate professor at the Swedish Defence Academy and expert in international politics:

'Things are not going well (for Russia, ed.) on the battlefield. But remember that
empty vessels make the most sound - that's also the case with Danish commentators', he begins in an email response to Ekstra Bladet.

'Instead, I take note of the authoritative statement by the Russian government spokesman, who said yesterday that Russia only uses nuclear weapons if their existence is at stake. That is not exactly the case in Ukraine', it continues.

Peter Viggo Jakobsen points out that the spokesman for the Russian leadership, Dmitry Peskov, said in an interview with CNN on Tuesday that Russia would only use nuclear weapons if its existence was threatened.

Putin has previously increased the readiness of the country's 'deterrent forces' during the Ukraine war. This covers, among other things, nuclear weapons.

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)

Markus

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7LCBdm0AO_Y

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HDAHzwbyuFw

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_2w7LrZ4BNY

[mapuc]

Someone posted a comment in where this person wrote

Putin wants non-friendly countries to pay in Rubel when they buy gas from them.

Don't know how reliable it is. It would not surprise me if it was true

Markus

[Jimbuna]

Why when the Rouble is just about worthless?

Going back to the fifteenth...

https://www.subsim.com/radioroom/showpost.php?p=2798856&postcount=2260

[mapuc]

Why when the Rouble is just about worthless?

Going back to the fifteenth...

https://www.subsim.com/radioroom/showpost.php?p=2798856&postcount=2260


I know how to balance my own economy-Knowledge about economy on state level-almost zero.

Edit
Adding following news flash

https://www.barrons.com/news/nato-to-give-more-support-to-ukraine-on-nuclear-chemical-threats-01648042507?refsec=afp-news
End Edit

Markus

[Jimbuna]

Expel them!

Russia's ambassador in Indonesia says Putin plans to attend G20 summit

JAKARTA (Reuters) - Russian President Vladimir Putin intends to attend a G20 summit being hosted by Indonesia later this year, Russia's ambassador in Jakarta said on Wednesday, following calls by some members for the country to be barred from the group.

"Not only G20, many organisations are trying to expel Russia....the reaction of the West is absolutely disproportional," ambassador Lyudmila Vorobieva told a news conference on Wednesday.

The United States and its Western allies are assessing whether Russia should remain within the Group of Twenty (G20) grouping of major economies following its invasion of Ukraine, sources involved in the discussions told Reuters.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/russias-ambassador-in-indonesia-says-putin-plans-to-attend-g20-summit/ar-AAVomA3?ocid=mailsignout&li=BBoPWjQ

[Skybird]

BBC:


A veteran Russian economic reformer turned envoy for President Putin, Anatoly Chubais, has resigned from his role.
Tasked with working with international organisations on sustainable development, he is the highest-profile official to step down since the war in Ukraine began.
Chubais quit because of the conflict in Ukraine, Bloomberg and Reuters cited sources close to him as saying.
He has left Russia and has no intention of returning, a source told Reuters.
He has decades of high-level political and business experience in Russia, and is seen as the main architect of Russian privatisation in the 1990s under former President Boris Yeltsin.
He recommended Mr Putin, an ex-KGB officer, for his first job in the Kremlin.
Chubais later become head of the Russian nanotechnology company Rusnano, until he was appointed to the envoy post in 2020.

[Skybird]

Someone posted a comment in where this person wrote

Putin wants non-friendly countries to pay in Rubel when they buy gas from them.

Don't know how reliable it is. It would not surprise me if it was true

Markus


True.


https://beta.dw.com/en/putin-unfriendly-states-to-pay-for-russian-gas-in-rubles/a-61234904

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sD_72aiwh7Y

[Jimbuna]

Vladolf Putrid is grateful to all those who help finance his invasion of Ukraine.

EU shame as bloc poised to import record levels of Russian energy: 'Securing supplies!'

EU ambassadors will continue working on proposals to curb soaring energy prices ahead of a summit on Thursday. A leaked draft reportedly shows that the Commission is ready to call on EU countries to ill up their gas stores at least 90% before the next winter. The move, according to Politico, is to reduce Europe's "dependency on Russian gas, oil and coal imports:.

But, the draft calls on these members to start refilling gas storage "as soon as possible" and preferably by working "together on the joint purchase of gas, LNG and hydrogen.

Diplomats have already reportedly raised concerns that this could lead to record imports of gas from the Kremlin, who is currently offering energy at "discount" rates.

It is no secret that the EU is already heavily dependent on Russia for much of its oil and gas imports.

Germany, for example, imports around 40 percent of its gas from Moscow.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/news/eu-shame-as-bloc-poised-to-import-record-levels-of-russian-energy-securing-supplies/ar-AAVoKKS?ocid=mailsignout&li=AAnZ9Ug

[mapuc]

True.


https://beta.dw.com/en/putin-unfriendly-states-to-pay-for-russian-gas-in-rubles/a-61234904

Thank you Skybird.

In an answer to my comment Jim asked Why - Ruble is worthless.

I don't know what will happen with the ruble if Germany-Denmark and others has to pay in this currency-Ruble.

As someone wrote(in a livestream on yt) Russia will and has to change this demand. Here I'm thinking do they ? Do they have to change this demand that non-friendly has to pay in Ruble if they want gas from Russia ?

Markus

[Jimbuna]

Nato leaders will approve major increases in its forces in eastern Europe at an emergency summit later, Nato's secretary general says.

Jens Stoltenberg says four new battlegroups will be sent to Slovakia, Hungary, Bulgaria and Romania.

US President Joe Biden has left the White House to travel to Europe for the Nato summit.

Ukrainian soldiers are successfully fighting back against invading Russian forces to reclaim ground in some parts of the country, the Pentagon says.

There are reports of the Ukrainian flag being raised again in the suburb of Makariv, west of the capital Kyiv.

But Russian bombardment of the southern port city of Mariupol continues unabated, with some 100,000 people said to be trapped there.

[Skybird]

1. I don't know what will happen with the ruble if Germany-Denmark and others has to pay in this currency-Ruble.

2. Do they have to change this demand that non-friendly has to pay in Ruble if they want gas from Russia ?

1. The Ruble will go up. It already has, for the time beign at least. But the likelihood for a total boycott of Russian gas from affected states also has climbed. Maybe not Germany, but others.

2. No. Russia will not change this demand. Spock calculated the probability that they would, with less than 10%.

[Jimbuna]

Ukrainian troops are counter-attacking Russian forces in some areas of the country, with reports that they have gained ground near the capital, Kyiv.

Local authorities in the town of Makariv, west of Kyiv, said Ukrainian flags were flying there once more.

A US defence spokesman said Ukrainians were also reversing momentum in some parts of the south.

In the small southern town of Voznesensk, Russian forces were pushed back and an armoured convoy destroyed.

And in Kherson, close to the Crimean peninsula and the first city to fall to Russia, Ukrainian forces are also trying to recapture territory.

A UK defence analyst told the BBC the fightback could force Moscow to change its tactics.

However, the latest assessment from the UK Ministry of Defence says Russian troops in Ukraine are moving in from the north and south to "envelop Ukrainian forces in the east of the country".

The note says "Russian forces are likely reorganising before resuming large-scale offensive operations".
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60847188

[Aktungbby]

The blow to Russian invincibility propaganda has yet to be computed... including what further atrocities they will commit to redeem it. Clearly there are no rules; including the defunct Geneva Convention. Perhaps Mr Bennett reads my posts!!?? Today political cartoon>:O: https://media.timesfreepress.com/img/photos/2022/03/21/220322thefleshwound8803249141.jpg https://media.timesfreepress.com/img/photos/2022/03/21/220322fpramirez7551206992.jpg

[Skybird]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HDAHzwbyuFw
Note this is by Ukrainian sources, and it could be a propaganda attempt to drive wedges between Putin and his security apparatus and alientate him and the establishemnt furtehr form each other by fostering his paranoia.

[Jimbuna]

True but I believe we have long been at the point where anything is possible.

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Owuwwx2w-3E

[mapuc]

It is interesting to follow what's going on in the air over Europe especially near the Ukrainian border.

Markus

[Catfish]

You think so? Not much traffic now, there has been much more in the last days. Tankers and drones, of course only those they want you to see. Forte 11 is going on strong :03:

[mapuc]

You think so? Not much traffic now, there has been much more in the last days. Tankers and drones, of course only those they want you to see. Forte 11 is going on strong :03:

Maybe not now-But there have been times where there have been a lot of activity in the air. This happens mostly during the daytime

Edit
I'm following No callsign approaching Brussels airport
End edit

Markus

[Aktungbby]

Generally when U go lookin' fer scapegoats and traitors and fund embezzlers who only provide 3 days rations; long convoys unable to feed the teeth of the advance; and non-winter attire as with Hitler and Napoleon's
frostbitten armies; U R conceding defeat. As with the cancellation of British Operation Foxley to Aßaßinat Hitler in WWII till it was determined he was helping the Allies with poor hands-on leadership; we'd best keep Vlad the Bastard Putin where he is for the moment. Even premier Xi is backing away from " limitless friendship" somewhat... and making friends with the damn murdering Saudis :x

[Skybird]

The whole EU must switch to war economy NOW.


FOCUS correctly writes:


With joint gas purchases and shared supplies, the EU should prove to be a true community of solidarity to break free from energy dependence on Russia. Germany's willingness to make sacrifices is still low. The upcoming EU summit could change that. After all, war requires a war economy.

Instead of oil, gas and coal, only blood, sweat and tears: This is what the future looks like, if the warnings of an energy embargo against Russia are to be believed. For Germany in particular, with its criminal dependence on Russian natural gas, such a boycott could only be sustained at great sacrifice. But it is certainly conceivable as an effort of EU solidarity.

Always informed: The course of the war in Ukraine in the ticker - Ukrainian military destroys Russian positions near Kherson for the eighth time.
Putin threatens and cashes in

Corresponding demands are piling up and will be on the table again at the upcoming EU summit. For it is increasingly intolerable that those Europeans who are allowed to live freely and peacefully should transfer hundreds of millions of euros to Moscow's war chest for gas supplies every day that dawns over the ruins of Mariupol. Germany in the lead.

In the first month since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, natural gas dealer Vladimir Putin has continued to pump billions of cubic meters of his stuff into the economic arteries of his Western junkies. Like any unscrupulous drug pusher, he can threaten withdrawal at any time. The Kremlin spews apocalyptic predictions: Western embargoes would have "disastrous consequences for the European energy market," it sounds from Moscow.

Emergency plans are already underway. They envisage forced shutdowns for industrial plants and preferential supplies for private households and public institutions such as hospitals. Manfred Weber (CSU), the chairman of the conservative European People's Party (EPP) group in the European Parliament, used an appropriate word in this context: "war economy".

For all the warnings of production slumps, supply problems and job losses, we cannot avoid the truth of this uncomfortable word. There is indeed a war going on in Europe, and the EU is fighting along on the economic front.
Scholz and the traffic light government shy away from market intervention

War has its own laws; it suspends many rules, including those of the free market. That's why a number of Germany's EU partners are considering government-imposed price caps for electricity. The German government has so far rejected this as inadmissible market intervention. Berlin does not yet seem to have understood how a war economy works.

It is now essential to join forces throughout the EU. This includes sharing strategic gas reserves and making gas purchasing a joint affair in the future. The EU heads of state and government could agree on this step in Brussels. It would prevent EU states from competing with each other on the already overheated gas market and fueling price increases. Instead, they would bring their concerted market power to bear as major buyers.
Selensky's daily appeal: do not continue to finance Russian war machine

At the same time, according to further plans of the EU Commission, the costs of building a significantly expanded European gas stockpile are to be shared in solidarity. The goal is to fill the underground gas storage facilities in the entire EU to 90 percent by October 1 - so far, it is not even 30 percent. By the end of this year, the EU's dependence on Russian natural gas is to be reduced by two-thirds.

These are ambitious goals for a new European energy solidarity community, which currently still covers 40 percent of its gas needs with imports from Russia. Russian oil and gas have so far not been on the EU's ever-lengthening sanctions list. Germany in particular, which obtains more than half of its gas imports from Russia, is resisting a boycott. The German government considers the expected burden on the economy and the population to be too high. This is contrasted by the almost daily appeal of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Selenskyi: "Please don't finance Russia's war machine." The moral pressure on Berlin is growing.

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (http://www.DeepL.com/Translator) (free version)


Meanwhile, there is suspicion that Germany has not deliverd all the weapons it announced it would deliver. The chief of the oppositional CDU demanded explanations and transparency in a general debate in the Bundestag - and Bubble-Olaf did what he excels in: he completely ignored it again and red his speech from 39 pages of paper, emotioinless, unappealing, desinterested, an apparatschik of the worst boring kind, again showing total unwillingness or inability to adress actual events in reality.

It now is reported Germany wants to deliver additional 2000 Panzerfaust-3's When, where, how many in reality - that remains unanswered.

I see potential that this crisis will topple the rooster of powers in the EU, and very very much to Germany's disadvantage, and to France's , Italy's advantage. Putin reacted to the sancitrons the way he always reacts: he escalates beyond the move of his opponents. I wonder why they now seem to be so surprised, although it is the most natural reaction in an effort to neutralise or trick out the sanctions - I waited for this to happen and started to wonder what took Putin so long. I am not that much surprised, because I say since many years the kremlin prepared itself to attack Western currency dominance. While the manouver now is not an explicit effort for this special task, it fits into the greater scheme of things. The context of a war in Ukraine I could not have forseen - the general direction at which Russia moves with this move however does not surprise me. Russia has spend the past ten years to dump its dollar reserves. This was the writing on the wall everyone could have red. Why didn't they, with all their claimed expertise?

Its possible that an economic carnage lies ahead of especially Germany. The perfect storm we all are in - intensifies further.

[mapuc]

(From memory)

Someone wrote

Take a day or two off the calendar and be with your family, friends or what makes you happy because we will face a dramatic change in our life where there's no Internet.

Markus

[Skybird]

Internet'S undersea cables as an attack target for Russia?


https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20220323-threat-looms-of-russian-attack-on-undersea-cables-to-shut-down-west-s-internet


https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/jan/08/uk-military-chief-warns-of-russian-threat-to-vital-undersea-cables


https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/cord-cutting-russian-style-could-the-kremlin-sever-global-internet-cables/?utm_source=pocket_mylist

[mapuc]

Internet'S undersea cables as an attack target for Russia?


https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20220323-threat-looms-of-russian-attack-on-undersea-cables-to-shut-down-west-s-internet


https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/jan/08/uk-military-chief-warns-of-russian-threat-to-vital-undersea-cables


https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/cord-cutting-russian-style-could-the-kremlin-sever-global-internet-cables/?utm_source=pocket_mylist

Lets presume we have a small exchange of nukes here in Europe and between USA and Russia.

Most of our electronics will, due to EMP, be dead. both my computers will be non-functional at all. My tv and radio will meet same fate.
Does this mean that Internet is down ? I don't know there's a lot of electronic in these connection hub.

Markus

[Rockstar]

I didn’t check the previous pages to see if anyone has covered this already. But I read NATO has confirmed approx. 40,000 Russians dead, wounded or missing since Putin started this. “Welcome to Hell”

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/23/up-to-40000-russian-soldiers-killed-wounded-captured-or-mia-nato-says.html

https://youtu.be/fHbjDxfbdQ8

[mapuc]

I didn’t check the previous pages to see if anyone has covered this already. But I read NATO has confirmed approx. 40,000 Russians dead or missing since Putin started this. “Welcome to Hell”

https://youtu.be/fHbjDxfbdQ8

It was in the news here-NATO estimate between 8 and 15000 Russian soldiers could have lost their life in Ukraine since the war started in Feb 24.
They didn't say anything about wounded or missing

Edit
What I laugh about when it comes to this war is the rumour that Russia will attack either Poland or some of the Baltic States- After they have taken Ukraine. They can't even beat the Ukrainian who have only been trained by NATO the last 5-7 years, so how will they manage to take Poland-Here I'm thinking conventional.
End edit


Markus

[Rockstar]

It was in the news here-NATO estimate between 8 and 15000 Russian soldiers could have lost their life in Ukraine since the war started in Feb 24.
They didn't say anything about wounded or missing

Edit
What I laugh about when it comes to this war is the rumour that Russia will attack either Poland or some of the Baltic States- After they have taken Ukraine. They can't even beat the Ukrainian who have only been trained by NATO the last 5-7 years, so how will they manage to take Poland-Here I'm thinking conventional.
End edit


Markus

Given the history how Ukraine, Poland, Romania, Hungary, the Baltic states and others came under control of Moscow. Makes them all highly motivated fighters.

[les green01]

It was in the news here-NATO estimate between 8 and 15000 Russian soldiers could have lost their life in Ukraine since the war started in Feb 24.
They didn't say anything about wounded or missing

Edit
What I laugh about when it comes to this war is the rumour that Russia will attack either Poland or some of the Baltic States- After they have taken Ukraine. They can't even beat the Ukrainian who have only been trained by NATO the last 5-7 years, so how will they manage to take Poland-Here I'm thinking conventional.
End edit


Markus

They are getting their backsides handed to them by Ukraine :har: so let attack a member of Nato course i'm for one getting tired of their threats

[Skybird]

DIE WELT comments:


The U.S. president is proving to be an unexpected stroke of luck in the Ukraine war. Biden is responsibly showing toughness toward Putin without breaking an old rule of the Cold War. It also makes clear the misjudgment to which the Russian autocrat has succumbed.

NATO will double the number of its combat units in the east of the alliance area from four to eight. Once the troops are deployed, NATO's entire eastern flank will be permanently reinforced. Could the soldiers stop a possible Russian advance? Probably not. But that is not the point.

With few exceptions, the combat units will be multinational. So if the undesirable should come true and Moscow decides to attack one gloomy day, Russian troops would immediately have to fight against formations containing soldiers from almost all NATO members. The combat troops thus symbolize the mutual assistance obligation under Article 5 of the NATO treaty. This is what true deterrence looks like.

Before the outbreak of the war against Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin could have toyed with the idea of using the incursion into foreign territory as a test case for further conquests, for example to attack the Baltic states, but now, at the latest, it is clear to him that Western deterrence is not just a phrase.

If he really dares to touch NATO territory, he will have to reckon with massive resistance that will play by the old rules of "flexible response". At the end of this strategy, the worst case scenario is a nuclear strike.

The father of the new edition of these thoughts is Joe Biden. The US president is a stroke of luck. Just now ridiculed as a man who has long since circumnavigated the Cape of Maturity, his treasure trove of experience is now proving to be a stroke of luck. In a responsible way, Biden shows toughness without getting caught up in adventures and breaking the old rule of the Cold War.

Thanks to Joe Biden, Vladimir Putin has miscalculated. The Kremlin leader hoped for a weak West and contributed to its invigoration. If before the outbreak of war the alliance still took into account the 1997 NATO-Russia Founding Act, which ruled out a permanent presence of NATO troops on its eastern flank, thanks to Putin NATO has now actually moved closer to Russia.

Moreover, Putin has bought Nato time. Entangled in the Ukraine war, its troops are not in a position to move further west via Ukraine in the near future. NATO now has a few years to prepare for all eventualities. Actually, Putin should now be overthrown.

His war has not only weakened Russia. It also violates Russian interests.

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)

[Buddahaid]

Russia just lost a warship.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60859337

[Jimbuna]

You think so? Not much traffic now, there has been much more in the last days. Tankers and drones, of course only those they want you to see. Forte 11 is going on strong :03:

Precisely :yep:

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i7C3FZCkKy8

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tl3EHYGQGuI

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I_qpEhpkkkc

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eqs0tm8YshQ

[Ostfriese]

Russia just lost a warship.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60859337


Actually it was a nearly 60 years old Alligator class LST (Project 1171).

[Jimbuna]

'Go back home while you're still alive'

The tale of Kharkiv is the story of the army that didn't fail, and an army that failed to win. Defying widespread expectations that it would collapse in short order, Russian forces have been unable to breach the Ukrainian army's lines around the north-eastern city and have not managed to encircle it.

Russia invaded at 05:00 on 24 February. The night before, 22-year-old Vlad and his brother-in-arms Mark, also 22, were at a fellow private's wedding.

When they learned of the attack, Vlad and Mark joined their battalion - the 22nd Motorised Infantry - and headed straight to the front lines. They have been there ever since.

A month on, while Russian missiles still strike at the city centre and at least half the 1.4m population have fled, there are neighbourhoods that remain untouched.

Against the regular beat of Russian artillery outside, I ask Mark and Vlad what they are fighting for.

Vlad's reply is short and to the point, "For peace in Ukraine." Mark shoots him a glance, "My comrade says for peace in Ukraine," he laughs, then he swears and asks: "Who knows? These people came to our land. No-one was waiting for them here, no-one was calling them."

Do they think of the soldiers on the other side, I wonder. Vlad says he has a message for them: "Run. Run away. Either you stay here in the ground or you go back home."

He pauses, but then adds: "Don't kill kids, destroy homes and families."

This time it is Mark who is to the point:

Quote Message: "Go back home while you are still alive."

Quentin Somerville
BBC News, Kharkiv

[Buddahaid]

Actually it was a nearly 60 years old Alligator class LST (Project 1171).

It's still a warship.

[Skybird]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10644823/Russian-soldier-drives-TANK-commanding-officer-Ukrainian-journalist-claims.html


If they can do this with Colonels, why not with presidents, too?

[Skybird]

Black Rock CEO says Ukrainian war has ended globalization.

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/03/24/business/blackrock-globalization/index.html

Which in itself is more good than bad, imo, but I would have said Corona began the ending of globalization - the war now completes it. I think globalization always has been perceived with a very strong bias on the winners only. The many losers it also produced, got almost always ignored, denied, minimised in relevance. But they are many.

[mapuc]

Precisely :yep:

There's some traffic now. As I said earlier daytime there's activity.

Markus

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fBOwW5OQ8DQ

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WVxmBwbbr7U

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iUyA6lIbxZw

[Ostfriese]

It's still a warship.


It certainly is, but in some corners of the internet people celebrate as if it was a Kirov class battlecruiser.

[Exocet25fr]

Biden and his Zelensky clown are VERY DANGEROUS for Western Europe, the US hope to destabilize the UE with Putin, I predict a Future war in Western Europe !:oops:, not in USA of course ! :D

[Skybird]

France usually has one of its four SLBM subamrine son patrol. It gets reprted that now two mo9re boats have left harbour. Means: 3 of 4 French SLBM submarines are now on alert and have "disappeared from the screen".

NATO delivers now, in it sown jargon, "lethal" weapons to Ukraine, including anti-ship missiles. Before, they made a strict discrimination between "lethal wepaons" and "eapoisn for self defence. If that make sense.

NATO delivers ABC protection gear, sensors and staff for training to the Ukraine. Also, Eastern states of the alliance that have borders with Russia or the Ukraine, have activated military ABC protocols. One may fear a bit that Russia strikes NAOT, althpoguh I think that is unlikely, but one seems to be quite certain that Russia will use ABC weapons sooner or later against the Ukraine, ands that their effect could drift across the border, may it be due to wind, may it be due to human traffic.


The UK will deliver 2000 more missiles.

Germany, so it seems, started to deliver arms and missiles that are in active use by BW units right now, to get the Ukraine hands on these weapons. The BW willl order replacements directly from the producers. That is an elegant way of ratating through the existing reserves or ammo and weapons and missiles, - but the gods may have mercy with us if we now get attacked with having given away these supplies while the replacement orders still have not been delivered! :D

The treaty from I think 1997 that limited ATO troops presence in Eastenr member states, seems to be seen as having turned obsolete by Russia's attack. Nobody cares for it anynore. I agree.

This is not how Putrin could have planned it. He gets right the opposite of everything that he wanted to acchieve with the war.

Right now I think the chance for a Russian marching-through from Ukraine into Poland, Hungary, or the Baltic, is close to impossible. The Russian army cannot do it. And NATO is in full reinforcement.

[mapuc]

^ We are getting more and more involved in this war...As I have said before thou longer the war goes on thou higher is the chance NATO will get involved

and not to forget

I would get really concern the day Putin order the Arctic fleet of Submarines to leave port and sail into the Atlantic.

Markus

[mapuc]

We talked about Ruble yesterday where Jim said why they were worthless and Skybird said they will go up. Today I read this article in a Danish newspaper - Translated with DeepL.

Start of article:
Russian President Putin wants to make it much more difficult and uncertain for Europeans to buy Russian natural gas. An attempt to shore up the ailing Russian economy, says expert

Vladimir Putin announced on Wednesday evening that 'unfriendly countries' will in future have to pay for natural gas in roubles.

The already extremely high price of natural gas rose on Thursday morning, and the announcement from the Russian president was not exactly good news for European buyers of natural gas, says senior analyst at Sydbank Kim Blindbæk.

- It came as a bit of a bombshell yesterday. Normally you pay for these commodities primarily in dollars, which the Russians then exchange for rubles. In Norway, for example, they also exchange dollars for Norwegian kroner. But the Russians are cornered, and they therefore need roubles, he says.

Europe has exempted energy trade from sanctions, so gas continues to flow, but the Russian president has a serious squeeze on Europe when it comes to gas. Up to half of European gas consumption comes from Russia.

Support the currency

Exchanging large amounts of, for example, dollars for roubles will create increased demand for the rouble and thus support the Russian currency, which plunged shortly after the invasion. In response to the fire sale of the Russian currency, the Russian central bank raised interest rates to a staggering 20 percent.

If Putin gets a payment for Russian gas in roubles implemented, it will also make life much more difficult for European buyers.

Putin probably also wants to show that it was foolish to impose sanctions on Russian banks, because many would rather avoid dealing in rubles. At the same time, spending roubles can quickly become a tricky business, because with the large fluctuations we have seen in the exchange rate, you don't really know what the roubles you buy will be worth tomorrow. So the uncertainty is very high, says Kim Blindbæk.

However, Putin stressed on Wednesday, according to the senior analyst, that Russia will respect the contracts already signed, which in all likelihood include sections on the currency in which settlements will be made.

Thus, such new requirements will only apply to new contracts for the purchase of gas, and these are also concluded all the time, he says

Not a rescue

Even if Europe buys 100 billion crowns worth of Russian gas every month, paying for it in roubles in the future will not save the Russian economy.

- I don't think it will change the situation of the Russian economy right now. They are really cornered and we can see that many Western companies are pulling out of Russia now. So a lot of the income streams that they used to get from the companies that operated out of Russia have disappeared.

- Furthermore, we see that a lot of companies don't want to trade with Russia at all, even if they can, so Russia is in a situation where they will have a really hard time in the coming years, says Kim Blindbæk.

Ukraine's government has repeatedly expressed its dissatisfaction with the fact that Europe continues to buy billions in gas from Russia despite the war.

The European price of natural gas, known as TTF, had fallen back to the previous day's level by around 4pm on Thursday.

End of article

Markus

[Buddahaid]

Then don't buy it.

[Skybird]

It seems the Europeans indeed will not buy in Rubles. If they would, they would undermine their own sanctions when needing to buy Rubles at Russia's central bank first.

----------

And a thought on the by some people mentioned option that the Ukraine would go neutral as a compromise to end the war and kick Russia out. A neutral state needs defence capacities, but Russia demands such a Ukraine to be demilitarized.

Ukraine also would need to get security guarantees by big player states. Ukraine has already experienced that international guarantees can be worthless in the end: In 1994, it committed itself in the Budapest Memorandum to give up its nuclear weapons, which had come from the bankruptcy estate of the Soviet Union. In return, Russia, the United States and Great Britain pledged to respect Ukraine's sovereignty and borders. Twenty years later, Russia annexed Ukraine's Crimea; the two Western powers allowed it to happen. Another eight years later we have the war of today. Those guarantees by the US, the UK and Russia were obviously not worth the paper they were printed on.

[mapuc]

^ Why did "Peace in our lifetime" pop-up in my mind when I read your comment Skybird

Markus

[Skybird]

^ :D
-------------------

FOCUS writes:


Turkey could become the oil and gas hub for Europe in the future, replacing Russia. This is the conclusion of a confidential analysis by the Konrad Adenauer Foundation. One risk, however, is Turkey's good relationship with Russia. Also a connection of Turkey to the sanctions of the west against Russia is not to be expected at present.

According to a confidential analysis by the Konrad Adenauer Foundation (KAS), Turkey has the potential to become the new oil and gas hub for Europe. This is the conclusion of experts from the Ankara office of the KAS. The paper is available to "Business Insider."

For example, the paper says that in Germany's attempt to become independent of Russian gas, "the expansion of the southern gas corridor and the use of Turkey as a strategic energy hub with access to gas deposits in the Caspian Sea and eastern Mediterranean could offer real alternatives" for Germany. The potential for importing Azerbaijani, Turkmen, Iraqi and, in the future, Iranian oil and gas has not yet been exhausted, they said. The authors conclude, "With Israeli-Turkish energy cooperation now becoming increasingly realistic, Turkey can position itself as an energy hub."

It goes on to say, "Turkey is dependent on Russia in terms of security, energy and economy and is therefore seeking a balanced approach." The country is indeed trying to gradually reduce its unilateral dependencies on Moscow. "Due to the complicated domestic political situation and severe economic crisis in Turkey, a massive change of course, including joining the U.S. and EU sanctions, of the current government under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan cannot be expected without concrete assurance and support from the West."

In the Syrian war in particular, Turkey has long taken a hard line against belligerent Russia, the KAS paper says. Since 2015, however, there has been a "dramatic rapprochement" and "unprecedented cooperation" between the countries, it said. However, this newly developed cooperation would now be put to the test by the Ukraine war, especially since Turkey had already clearly declared its support for Ukraine's territorial sovereignty since Russia's annexation of Crimea.

Nevertheless, "the mutual dependencies, especially in the energy sector, and the good personal relations between Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan have made it possible to maintain constructive relations despite many difficulties," the KAS experts write.

Turkish rapprochements with Russia in recent years have been tactical in nature, they say, and should be understood more as the "self-confident appearance of a regional power" than as a "reorientation of Turkey toward Russia." In the medium term, Moscow remains Ankara's biggest strategic competitor. The longer the Ukraine war continues, the more difficult it will be for Turkey to maintain the strategic balance with Russia.

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)


^ What that would mean for the conflict between Turkey and Cyprus over gas fields in the Eastern Med, is hard to predict, but the claims made by turkey so far are mostly not legally vialble. I wonder whether it is wise to put Turkey into another strong position where it could blackmail Europe , and in this case especially Cyprus, once again. Well, I am rethorical. Of course I think it is not wise at all. Just: what if there is no other working shortterm solution?


It seems these days we have no good options left, no matter the topic, no matter the direction we look at. Its always foul compromises. Stinking foul comproimises. We always seem to damage our longterm interests, no matter what we do.

[mapuc]

EB Writes:

Start article
Expert: No prospect of Putin coup

A whistleblower says the risk of a coup against Putin is rising, but experts say a coup is unlikely

The risk of a coup by the Russian intelligence service FSB against President Vladimir Putin grows with every week of the war in Ukraine.

So says an intelligence whistleblower, according to The Guardian.

But if you ask Jørgen Meedom Staun, a lecturer in international politics at the Defence Academy, the risk of a coup against Putin is very small.

- I don't think it's a very likely scenario at this point, he tells Ekstra Bladet.

Has ensured the dependence of the elite

The reason why a coup is not imminent, according to Jørgen Meedom Staun, is partly the Russian elite's dependence on Putin.

- If anything, Putin has been adept at ensuring that everyone is dependent on him and that the wealth they (the elite, ed.) have acquired either legally or illegally is something they owe him, such that they will lose it if they lose their connection to Putin and political power, he says.

At the same time, Putin has what the lecturer calls 'a very strong security apparatus'.

- I'm not just referring to the intelligence services, which are among the best in the world. I am thinking primarily of the presidential guard, you might call it, Rosgvardia, says Jørgen Meedom Staun and adds:

- It is a national guard, but it is in essence a presidential guard

Under Putin's leadership

According to The Moscow Times, Rosgvardia numbered 340,000 soldiers in 2016.

- It is under the command of Putin's old bodyguard Viktor Zolotov, whom he has known for years and whom he can trust 100 percent, so it is not under the command of the Interior Ministry, nor is it under the Defense Ministry, it is under Zolotov and Putin's command alone, explains Jørgen Meedom Staun.

However, the editor acknowledges that the risk of a coup against Putin has increased with the war in Ukraine.

- But I still think it's relatively low, he says.
End of article

Translated with DeepL.

Markus

[Skybird]

Marcus Matthias Keupp heads the Department of Military Economics at the Military Academy of the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich and analyzes in depth what is happening in Russia and Ukraine. He sees many misguided plans and explains in an interview with Der Tagesspiegel why the war could reach a turning point for Russia in seven days.

Mr. Keupp, Vladimir Putin wants to provide gas supplies to "hostile states" such as Germany only in exchange for rubles, what is his purpose in doing so?


I would call this a verbal intervention, for one thing. This is something that central banks, for example, like to do. Mario Draghi stood up in 2012 and uttered the famous phrase "Whatever it takes." He managed to stabilize the euro exchange rate just by saying that. And something similar has happened with the ruble now. So just because Putin said that, the ruble exchange rate has already stabilized somewhat. That is one side, this verbal intervention.

So far, the supply contracts are in euros and dollars, what else is behind that?


The largest market for rubles is in Moscow, and these transactions would ultimately always have to be settled at the Russian Central Bank. In other words, this is an attempt to circumvent the sanctions against the central bank, whose euro reserves are frozen abroad. But now you also have to consider that some of the supply contracts for gas are very long-term.

So you can't imagine that you go to the weekly market and say, today I need so and so many cubic meters and I'm going to buy that quickly, but these are contracts, some of which run for 10 or 15 years. And they are negotiated in euros and US dollars. If he wants to enforce that, he would have to break the contract. I can't imagine how that would work. That's why I would call it more of a verbal intervention.

In principle, he is trying to blackmail the West: Rubles and euro foreign exchange for Moscow or gas freeze - but the German government, for example, says that would endanger hundreds of thousands of jobs.


Of course, politicians stand up and create such pictures now. But first of all, we have to get away from this view, according to the motto Europe needs so and so much Russian natural gas. In Switzerland or Sweden, for example, it doesn't matter at all. There, you can replace the share of natural gas in the energy mix quite quickly. In Western Europe, Italy or the Netherlands in particular are now experiencing problems. So you have to take a close look at each country: How important is natural gas in the energy mix, and what percentage of natural gas comes from Russia? Then the situation is put into perspective. Under no circumstances should we make the mistake of simply buying into these excited images that politicians are conveying.

Putin's announcement has already caused the price of gas to rise by around 25 percent.


Yes, but that's a risk premium, so to speak, because the market expects the supply to tighten. But so far there is just as much oil and gas flowing out of Russia as there was before the war. But it's not like there's no natural gas in the world now, or that the world is dependent on Russia or at Russia's mercy, for better or worse. Now we should move to a globalized, or LNG, gas market. The U.S. has already signaled that it wants to supply Europe with LNG tankers.

Can this really circumvent the sanctions?


Well, to bring in the foreign currency to Russia, we don't need the central bank in principle; they still have non-sanctioned banks that handle the business of gas payments. The best example would be Gazprom Bank. So this step that Putin took yesterday, I don't really need it. I could also collect the foreign currency normally, i.e. through normal commodity trading. But of course, when you look at the Russian economy, the Russian government now has a lot of problems to solve at the same time.

Which ones in particular?


It has to slow down the currency devaluation, it has to plug the holes in the bank balance sheets, because the companies are slowly starting to collapse. And Russia will have to intervene very deeply in its national welfare fund. And on the other hand, it's not selling oil or gas anymore.

It's about cushioning the economic consequences of the sanctions for the real economy and for the financial sector. And this balance, it's getting worse by the day.

And at some point, the national welfare fund will be empty. Then the state will have to keep the country going with the money printing machine. And that is the great tragedy of this story. The war doesn't end, but the Russian real economy, it will completely decay.

But you say an energy boycott would not stop Putin's war machine.


Exactly. It wouldn't stop the war. That's because of two things. The Russian war machine is independent of the export business. We talk a lot in the West about exporting oil and gas, and that is also significant for the Russian economy, but not for the Russian military. If you look at the war in military economic terms, you have to look at two things. One is the defense industry, where the weapons and the vehicles are manufactured. And that is completely self-sufficient in terms of raw materials.

In terms of labor, in terms of technologies, in terms of financing, it doesn't depend on foreign exchange earnings. And the second important point, that is the logistics, that is, first of all, the fuels oil, diesel, kerosene. And all this comes from Russia's own production.

Out of eleven million barrels of oil per day, three million per day go to Russia's own consumption. And that includes the armed forces. That's all supplied by Rosneft and invoiced in rubles. Likewise, the armed forces are paid in rubles.

That's exactly why this consideration doesn't work. That people in the West say okay, now we boycott Russian oil and gas and then the war will stop. That is not the case, and I can only warn against uncritically adopting this line of thought. The war will not end because of that.

Economically, you already see a reversion to Soviet times.


Yes, we actually have to say goodbye to modern Russia. Day by day, we are moving more and more in the direction of the Soviet Union, where we say: There is this huge military apparatus that swallows up most of the state budget, and then there is subsidized basic foodstuffs for the population. And besides that, there's nothing else.

And that's why I say it's economic suicide. It is the reversion of an economy to a developing country.

Will there be a switch to a war economy, even with the confiscation of foreign companies?


In principle, it is possible to convert an economy to a war economy, but not overnight. We are dealing with a complete failure of the Russian leadership. This campaign in Ukraine was designed to be an operation of a few days, so maybe four to five days. Then you took Kiev, then you deposed the government and installed a puppet regime.

If you plan with that in mind, then of course you are not preparing the national economy for prolonged armed conflict. But if they now say, we are preparing for a month-long campaign into a country that is one and a half times the size of Germany and has a population of 44 million, then, they have to prepare the national economy for years beforehand.

Putin has already made such approaches, after all, the Central Bank began to build up these reserves back in 2018. And Russia suddenly changed its debt policy and started to reduce its foreign debt. On the other hand, it must be said: of course, this is amateurish. You can't run an operation of this size against a territory of this size with 200 billion welfare funds. So you would really have to rebuild the entire national economy.

Do you see any possible turning points where the price becomes too high for Putin?


A major turning point will certainly come when Russian artillery is exhausted, that is, when it runs out of shells. There comes a moment when the national defense industry has to step in and supply very large quantities. The situation was similar in the first weeks of the First World War.

When the war broke out in 1914, no one expected it to last long. And even then, the national economies and the armaments industry were not prepared for such a thing. As early as the fall of 1914, artillery and shells were rationed, and the troops were told that they could only fire so many shells a day. And that's the big question now; is the Russian arms industry able to deliver supplies quickly? It can produce, that's not the problem.

The problem is more logistical. So it can get its production into the combat zone so that the war continues from that side. That will be the case in about seven days and will become an important turning point in the war.

Putin seems to be cornered, do you fear a widening of the war, even with pulling the nuclear option?


I don't think one should overestimate that. Putin still has enough ways out. For example, he can say: Yes, I have now achieved my war goal. Ukraine declares itself neutral again and will not join NATO for the foreseeable future.

He does not necessarily have to escalate now. It is entirely possible that he will also sell what the West considers a military defeat as a victory at home. As long as he controls the propaganda and the security forces, that is entirely possible. There is then a parallel world of official narrative, as in Iran or North Korea, for example. You don't always have to think about nuclear escalation right away. You have to take into account that Russian rhetoric is very colorful and very self-confident. One should not overstate that.

https://www.tagesspiegel.de/politik/zurueck-zur-sowjetunion-militaeroekonom-sieht-bei-putin-oekonomischen-selbstmord/28196134.html

-------------------


With the last answer I disagree, that is too optimistic and too focussed on rationality.

What drives Putin, whom I diagnose with a narcissistic-psychopathic personality disorder with megalomianc and paranoid delusions, is not so much reality-grounded rationality anymore, but emotion, and last but not least: hate on the West and a feeling of deep own offence for having been rejected when not being allowed to play the first violine as he wanted. Observers say that he had changed in the recent months, two or three years, and his cold facade repeatedly collapsed for a few seconds when talking about people disagreeign with him or about the West which he seems to dispise with a passion, and that then he became loud, used suddenly a rantign, emotionally charged language with juvenile terms and slurs, before his ice-cold facade and pokerface was established again. In the German-languege documentary I linked to two or three days ago, this was also pointed out by people meeting him vis-a-vis. His tone already changed however around 2007, when NATO had moved further east.

[mapuc]

Could Ukraine become a modern version of the Vietnam war ?

Where Russia is north Vietnam and Ukraine is south Vietnam.

The question came to me when I saw the news where they talked about China and their not-so-eager-to-condemn-Russia's-war attitude.

A Vietnam where NATO support with defensive and offensive weapon to Ukraine (south) and China supporting Russia (North)

Markus

[Buddahaid]

I doubt it. Russia is fast turning itself into anything but a superpower and I don't see why China would want to stop that.

[mapuc]

I doubt it. Russia is fast turning itself into anything but a superpower and I don't see why China would want to stop that.

Maybe you're right
As I see it the Russian's continues war campaign hinges on whether China will support Russia. If Russia hasn't decide to use either chemical or nukes as a last resort.

Markus

[Buddahaid]

I think Russia has already had more casualties in one months of the Ukraine war than they had from ten years in Afganistan as the Soviet Union, and that war broke up the the great union. Besides it's not as if Russia is a fellow communist state anymore.

[Rockstar]

https://youtu.be/qONDdAC3dCA

https://youtu.be/Z4k71CHVCrw

[tmccarthy]

Could Ukraine become a modern version of the Vietnam war ?

Where Russia is north Vietnam and Ukraine is south Vietnam.

The question came to me when I saw the news where they talked about China and their not-so-eager-to-condemn-Russia's-war attitude.

A Vietnam where NATO support with defensive and offensive weapon to Ukraine (south) and China supporting Russia (North)

Markus

I don't think so because the US was fighting a limited war in Vietnam. I think Russia is starting with a limited war but is really fighting a total war not yet seen. I think this is a "modern version" of the Chechen Wars and Russia can and I'm assuming is prepared to destroy every city in all of Ukraine like they did to Grozny.

Cheerful thoughts... sorry I haven't seen anything good in this since the beginning and can't believe it's happening.

-Tim

[tmccarthy]

I'm working on a video about the history of the NATO expansion. I started to put together a simple montage just to show the many different countries that have their militaries involved in today's situation. But it has evolved into something else unintentionally, I've learned some new things and it's raised a lot of questions along the way. Still working on it but I just sent a friend this rough cut...

https://youtu.be/3VHQL-N53-c

[Jimbuna]

Ukraine is re-occupying some towns and defensive positions up to 35km east of Kyiv, the UK Ministry of Defence says.

US President Joe Biden is due to visit a Polish town near the border with Ukraine as he wraps up his trip in Europe.

On Thursday Biden told world leaders in Brussels the US would "respond" if Russia uses chemical or biological weapons in Ukraine.

Ukraine's President Zelensky said Europe was "a little too late" to stop Russia's invasion, by not sanctioning Moscow and blocking the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline earlier.

In a late-night video address to the EU Council in Brussels, he also pleaded for his country's entry into the EU

At the emergency summit, Nato's Jens Stoltenberg said four new battlegroups would be sent to Slovakia, Hungary, Bulgaria and Romania.

Russia and Ukraine held their first formal prisoner swap since the war began, officials say.

[Commander Wallace]

I don't think so because the US was fighting a limited war in Vietnam. I think Russia is starting with a limited war but is really fighting a total war not yet seen. I think this is a "modern version" of the Chechen Wars and Russia can and I'm assuming is prepared to destroy every city in all of Ukraine like they did to Grozny.

Cheerful thoughts... sorry I haven't seen anything good in this since the beginning and can't believe it's happening.

-Tim


:agree: I couldn't agree more. I will ask you this since you are putting together the map of NATO expansion and may have more insight. This is also an open question to our other Subsim members.


NATO started to expand eastward after the breakup of the Soviet Union / Fall of Communism in 1991. Why then did NATO need to expand Eastward ?
Wouldn't it have been better to show a sign of Good Faith and leave the current members numbers as they were ? Certainly, the U.S and other European countries like Germany and Great Britain and others could have worked with the former Soviet Bloc countries like Poland that had been in the sphere of Influence behind the Iron Curtain. This would not require membership in NATO.

I am a U.S Citizen, born and bred but I also think we have mishandled a number of things very badly. The above may be one such blunder.

[Onkel Neal]

:agree: I couldn't agree more. I will ask you this since you are putting together the map of NATO expansion and may have more insight. This is also an open question to our other Subsim members.


NATO started to expand eastward after the breakup of the Soviet Union / Fall of Communism in 1991. Why then did NATO need to expand Eastward ?
Wouldn't it have been better to show a sign of Good Faith and leave the current members numbers as they were ? Certainly, the U.S and other European countries like Germany and Great Britain and others could have worked with the former Soviet Bloc countries like Poland that had been in the sphere of Influence behind the Iron Curtain. This would not require membership in NATO.

I am a U.S Citizen, born and bred but I also think we have mishandled a number of things very badly. The above may be one such blunder.


If you were a citizen in a former Russian-controlled country, you might have a better idea why they wanted to join NATO.

[Commander Wallace]

If you were a citizen in a former Russian-controlled country, you might have a better idea why they wanted to join NATO.

I completely understand that and agree with you, Neal. However, as I said, If the Soviet Union had been dissolved, then were they fundamentally not a threat. Certainly, I understand Russia still maintained a vast war machine. I think with economic cooperation and integration of the former Eastern European countries, there may well have been a bit more stability. We don't trust Russia and for good reason. I'm sure Russia doesn't trust us either. I think we and Russia missed a great opportunity to build on the trust initiated by Reagan, Thatcher and Gorbachev.

I know how much those countries suffered under the control of the Soviet Union. I just think there may have been a better way that may have been a stabilizing factor in Eastern Europe.

[Skybird]

It is understandable that citizens in former Warsaw Pact memberstates wanted to slip under the protective umbrella of NATO, however: non-members do not have an inherent claim for getting under the protective umbreella of NATO. They can ask, but NATO emembers have any right one could imagine to say not only Yes, but also to say No.

We will never know if Putin would nto have gone mad if those events would not have happened, I perosnally saw the Eastern expansion of NATO as a provokation, a fault and a breaking of promises, and it is noteworthy that Putin completely chnaged his stance towards the West after it has happened, immediately, as if you were flipping a switch. However in recent weeks I got some doubts on it, and maybe it would not have made a difference, the perceptions of the West as somethign to be hated and that is in decline and degeneration probably would have stayed the same, at least for Putin. We will never know for sure if it would have made a difference not to expand. Possible that then Russia would have sought to expand its own influence there again, like it lured Belarus and two, three other ex-Sovjet provinces back into its orbit. And if that would have happened , we maybe would ask then: wouldnt it have been better if we gave those states NATO membership...

But all that is academical now. We need to deal with the present, because that is the only reality we have got.

I posted an interview with Richard Ned Lebow some days ago, why wars are being fought, and the author , a world-famous war historian, argued that we overestimate the relevance of rational decisions based on egoist motives for going to war, he showed in his work that since 1648 the overwhelming majority of wars were launched instead more by hurt sentiments of people, or individual leaders offended sentiments, and national feelings of unity. He also showed that the vast majority of wars of aggression - got lost by the aggressor. That is counter-intuitive and against what mainstrema thinking believes it knows about the origins of war. But it holds plenty of empirical evidence. We see this pscho-dynamic in football fans who feel with their club. If it looses, they fell all bad, if it wins, they all feel triumphant. Citizens of nations tend to tick like this, too. Inm the end, its "primtive" tribal psychology. Primtive maybe, but nevertheless: real. Its foolish to ignore it.

https://www.subsim.com/radioroom/showthread.php?t=252149&highlight=Richard+New+Lebow

Other authors before have shown that oroiginally wars were hoighly ritualized events with strict rules and hardly aiming at completely annihilationb of the enemy, in certainb prnmtive societies until today wars are more about posing and simple acts of showing courage instead of conquest, destruction and mass killing. This changed with the industrialization of warfare, and the forming of nations. From "sports" to"gladiator games" to "wars" in modern understanding, so to speak.

Very interesting stuff.

John Keegan: A istory of Warfare, 1993
Martin van Creveld: The Culture of War, 1988
Richard Ned Lebow: Why Nations Fight, 2010 - This one I am currently reading.

[Exocet25fr]

DEFCON Level 3 > 2

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov says Russia is facing total war declared by the West !:oops:

[Skybird]

Deutsche Welle:


In the future, the USA wants to supply the European Union with up to one-third of the natural gas that the EU currently obtains from Russia. This was announced by EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in Brussels. Together with U.S. President Joe Biden, she signed an agreement under which the U.S., together with international partners, intends to export an additional 15 billion cubic meters of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to the EU as early as this year. By 2030, the additional volume of U.S. deliveries is then expected to rise to 50 billion cubic meters per year.

Canada, the world's fourth-largest oil producer, wants to increase its oil exports by about five percent against the backdrop of the Ukraine war to help its European allies move faster away from Russian energy supplies.


(...)

Germany is reducing its dependence on Russian energy imports "at a rapid pace," according to German Economics Minister Robert Habeck. As early as the middle of this year, "Russian oil imports to Germany are expected to be halved," the Green minister said in Berlin. By the end of the year, the aim is to be "almost independent" of Russian oil.

The dependence on coal will drop from 50 to about 25 percent in the coming weeks, Habeck continued. By the fall, it will be possible to become independent of Russian coal, he said. In the case of gas, the process will take somewhat longer. Here, the German government is striving to become "largely independent" by mid-2024.

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)


Germany is the only coastal nation over here that has no liquified gas terminals, these must be build. Some years ago a plan to build such terminals was sacked due to polls amongst th einbsuitry showed that thetre was zeor interest in the idbiustry ot buy US liquified gas, because it was more expensive than other liquified gas options, the Ameicna gas stesm form fracking whcih is very controversial ove rhere, and the ags needs expensive special clenaing processes before use because of its higher degree of chemical impurities. These wree the reaosns why US liqified gas did not beocme more popular. I agree with all these reaosns, bit as thign s stand right now, we have no other chpice. However, the terminals will take years to build (see Berlin airprort...:D), until then any gas for Germany needs to be unloade din other natiosnb and then being delivered to Germany via infrastructure existing on the continent. Can be done, but its a bit complicated.

[Skybird]

Tagesspiegel:


A new case has been opened against former TV editor Marina Ovsyannikova because of her sensational protest live on state television against Russia's war in Ukraine. The 44-year-old faces up to 50,000 rubles (about 465 euros) in fines under a new media law, Interfax agency reported Friday, citing the competent court in Moscow.

The law provides for a maximum of 15 years in prison in camps for alleged false information about Russia's armed forces. It was therefore initially feared that Ovsyannikova could face a much harsher sentence.

Ovsyannikova is accused of "public acts aimed at discrediting the mission of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation," which is to protect the interests of the Russian Federation and its citizens and to maintain international peace and security.

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)

[mapuc]

Thank you for your reply-I guess you are right.

This I know for sure-It will be a long running war-Where we support Ukraine and some others(here I'm thinking China) support Russia.

It will be a WWIII by proxy.

Markus

[Skybird]

Russia becomes modest: the Kremlin formulates clearly more backward war aims and speaks now of a first phase, which is now over, one concentrates now on the complete "liberation" of the Donbass region.

Earlier, Kyiv reported territorial gains both northwest and northeast of the city (so on both sides of the Dnjepr). Russian attackers in these areas had been pushed back.

There is surprise over the whereabouts of Russian War Minister Shoigu. He has not been seen for days. There are also reports that a purge is underway in the FSB and the Kremlin.


In that bombed theatre at Mariupol where over 1200 people sought shelter and got buried under the rubble for days, a minimum of 300+ are said to have been killed.

[Buddahaid]

Wrong language. 300 were liberated....

[Von Due]

Wrong language. 300 were liberated....

http://pbs.twimg.com/media/FNMQy6BWUAIpdCh.jpg

[Dowly]

Our dumb ex-PM have now said that Finland will be joining the NATO, just for him to stay relevant in the news.

There's a reason joining NATO is given a hush over here; provoking Russia could, even if the chance is small, lead to some minor border conflict that would automatically lock us out of NATO.

Dumb idiot.

[mapuc]

Our dumb ex-PM have now said that Finland will be joining the NATO, just for him to stay relevant in the news.

There's a reason joining NATO is given a hush over here; provoking Russia could, even if the chance is small, lead to some minor border conflict that would automatically lock us out of NATO.

Dumb idiot.

The Swede has said We join NATO when Finland does it.

Markus

[Onkel Neal]

Man alive, Putin is killing Russia faster than Ukraine.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/25/business/germany-russia-gas.html

Germany released a report on Friday showing that the country was cutting its dependence on Russian energy sooner than many thought possible.

Robert Habeck, the vice chancellor and economic minister, said Germany expected to cut its imports of Russian oil in half by the midsummer and nearly end the imports by end of this year.

The need for Russian coal could be halved in “the coming weeks,” he said. And he estimated that Germany could be free of Russian gas by the middle of 2024, if all goes well.

Once Germany and Europe move away from Russian petro fuels, it's not cheap and easy to switch back. If the ward ended today, this would cripple Russia's economy for years to come.

I can't imagine Putin's state of mind :shucks:

[mapuc]

^ Guess he consider the entire world is conspiring against him

Another thing
This is part of a Danish article

Ukraine attacks Russian supply chains - and it works, says expert

At the same time, there is growing concern that Vladimir Putin will use tougher weapons, says the lecturer.

These days, scenes are unfolding that few military experts would have predicted when the war began a month ago.

The Ukrainians are on the offensive, while the Russians are struggling to defend the ground they have gained.

One reason for the Ukrainians' success is that they are determined to cut off new supplies to the Russians. So says Claus Mathiesen, associate professor at the Defence Academy and former defence attaché in Ukraine.

- The strategy is quite inhibiting for the Russian offensives. They simply can't get the supply chains to work, he tells TV 2.

Among other things, the Russians lack food, ammunition and fuel - things that are absolutely essential for surviving in war, says Claus Mathiesen

Markus

[ET2SN]

Deutsche Welle:


In the future, the USA wants to supply the European Union with up to one-third of the natural gas that the EU currently obtains from Russia. This was announced by EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in Brussels. Together with U.S. President Joe Biden, she signed an agreement under which the U.S., together with international partners, intends to export an additional 15 billion cubic meters of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to the EU as early as this year. By 2030, the additional volume of U.S. deliveries is then expected to rise to 50 billion cubic meters per year.

Canada, the world's fourth-largest oil producer, wants to increase its oil exports by about five percent against the backdrop of the Ukraine war to help its European allies move faster away from Russian energy supplies.


(...)

Germany is reducing its dependence on Russian energy imports "at a rapid pace," according to German Economics Minister Robert Habeck. As early as the middle of this year, "Russian oil imports to Germany are expected to be halved," the Green minister said in Berlin. By the end of the year, the aim is to be "almost independent" of Russian oil.

The dependence on coal will drop from 50 to about 25 percent in the coming weeks, Habeck continued. By the fall, it will be possible to become independent of Russian coal, he said. In the case of gas, the process will take somewhat longer. Here, the German government is striving to become "largely independent" by mid-2024.

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)


Germany is the only coastal nation over here that has no liquified gas terminals, these must be build. Some years ago a plan to build such terminals was sacked due to polls amongst th einbsuitry showed that thetre was zeor interest in the idbiustry ot buy US liquified gas, because it was more expensive than other liquified gas options, the Ameicna gas stesm form fracking whcih is very controversial ove rhere, and the ags needs expensive special clenaing processes before use because of its higher degree of chemical impurities. These wree the reaosns why US liqified gas did not beocme more popular. I agree with all these reaosns, bit as thign s stand right now, we have no other chpice. However, the terminals will take years to build (see Berlin airprort...:D), until then any gas for Germany needs to be unloade din other natiosnb and then being delivered to Germany via infrastructure existing on the continent. Can be done, but its a bit complicated.

Back when this current mess started, I posted "welcome to the free market" when Germany was wringing their hands about energy imports. I wasn't implying to buy energy from the US or Canada. :O:
"Free market" means "shop around". There are other countries who produce crude oil and LNG for export. :yep: Look at the rest of Europe, look at Eurasia, look at South America, the Middle East, and the African continent.

Buying exports from North America might be troublesome. We tend to look after our own needs first. Try to think outside the box a little. :yep:

[Buddahaid]

Now that Putin is losing the conventional war he's declared that part over. Good luck with that.

[mapuc]

Now that Putin is losing the conventional war he's declared that part over. Good luck with that.

Reading your comment make me worried he has decided to use either nukes or chemical in Ukraine.

Markus

[Skybird]

LNG is not just about quantities available, but also transport capacities (ships), and infrastructure that supports loading/unloading. ;) Of ships there would be needed three times as many as there are now, and those who currently run mostly have longerm contracts that reserve their capacities many months ahead.

[Skybird]

Wrong language. 300 were liberated....No, 300 were killed.

[Rockstar]

NSFW some graphic content and language.

“Buran, go home. It’s better to be a deserter than fertilizer.” :o

Also just an FYI if you live close enough and have a computer. You can use what’s called a Software Defined Radio (SDR) receive only dongle to pick up these frequencies and listen in. Hardest part about the set up is determining length and placement of antenna. I have one and they work well for picking up everything in range of it.

https://youtu.be/gOmYi96cU1M

[Catfish]

https://youtu.be/VxKf5vn4I1U

[Subnuts]

Was reading on the Chernobyl Reddit that Russian troops in the Exclusion Zone have been digging foxholes into the soil of the Red Forest.

An interesting strategy. Let's see how it plays out.

[Buddahaid]

No, 300 were killed.

That was sarcasm.

[mapuc]

Edit on how many Swedes and Danes who is fighting the Ruskies in Ukraine.

Approx 678 Swedes has taken the trip to Ukraine
Approx 159 Danes has taken the trip to Ukraine.

While we at it.

In some Danish article-which is behind a paywall the headline says

Putin is no madman, but I wish he were. It would have been easier
Putin is the face of totalitarianism, but he has not escaped from an insane asylum. On the contrary, we can count on years of confrontation, writes Adam Holm.

Second edit
The Russians are breaking every ROE there is
This is a copied text from Liveuamap
"Russian army shelled city hospital in Kharkiv with MLRS GRAD and howitzers this morning. As result 4 person killed, 3 wounded "
End of second edit

Markus

[Skybird]

That was sarcasm.
:salute:

[Rockstar]

Related news


The war raging in Ukraine has ushered in a new era worldwide. What seemed self-evident yesterday is being called into question today. Our author provides a brief overview of the situation in Central Asia, which is already turning since 2016, and gives an outlook of what may come.

https://www.pipeline-journal.net/news/energy-markets-central-asia-opening-policies-and-pipeline-options

[Skybird]

Russia struck the Ukrainian air forc eheadquarter with six cruise missiles, "some" of them were shot down.

The Ukraine has killed another Russian general. They have "gotchaed" almost 20 high ranking unit and formation commanders of the ranks Colonel and General .


Elon Musk is officially promoted to being a war party. His Starlink satellites are being used by the Ukrainian military to controrl and steer cruise msisiles to their targets.

[Gorpet]

Russia struck the Ukrainian air forc eheadquarter with six cruise missiles, "some" of them were shot down.

The Ukraine has killed another Russian general. They have "gotchaed" almost 20 high ranking unit and formation commanders of the ranks Colonel and General .


Elon Musk is officially promoted to being a war party. His Starlink satellites are being used by the Ukrainian military to controrl and steer cruise msisiles to their targets.

We were told here in America his starlink would provide millions of people cheap internet service. If what you say is true he is a lie.He is nothing more than a globalist hack. And would turn those satellites on everyday citizens to control them.And the government would guide their drones right down on any citizens house the local government hacks think need to be destroyed.I can only see the death of the children and old folks.If starlink can control these type of missiles then starlink needs to be destroyed and it's creator.

[Gorpet]

Putin has already lied about chemical, biological and whatnot weapons developed in Ukraine, i guess this is why he shells it so much so all of it will be blown towards Russia :haha:

Just a pretext to have a "reason" to use all of this on the Ukranians. Lies as usual.

The Chinese with the help of the American Anthony Fauci has already killed more people with their biological virus.

[Skybird]

We were told here in America his starlink would provide millions of people cheap internet service. If what you say is true he is a lie.He is nothing more than a globalist hack. And would turn those satellites on everyday citizens to control them.And the government would guide their drones right down on any citizens house the local government hacks think need to be destroyed.I can only see the death of the children and old folks.If starlink can control these type of missiles then starlink needs to be destroyed and it's creator.
You do not need Starlink for any of this, Bill Gates vaccine-implanted microchips will suffice. :03:

[Catfish]

You do not need Starlink for any of this, Bill Gates vaccine-implanted microchips will suffice. :03:
I really urge you to abstain from viewing too much Tucker Carlson news and videos :O:

[Jimbuna]

President Volodymyr Zelensky says Ukraine has inflicted "powerful blows" and "significant losses" on the Russians.

Ukrainian officials say Russia's Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu suffered a heart attack.

Russia's army says the first phase of its military campaign in Ukraine is over, and it will now focus on the eastern Donbas region.

Western officials believe the announcement implies that Moscow knows its pre-war strategy has failed.

Meanwhile, US President Joe Biden is in Poland as he wraps up his European trip.

An official in the besieged southern port of Mariupol tells the BBC an estimated 300 people died in last week's attack on a theatre.

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ORPrILcKbF4

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lCyfjNKhra8

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=06AH1bE4Ils

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gpQuVPYQNyA

[Skybird]

https://www.focus.de/politik/ausland/ukraine-krise/russland-ist-zum-paria-staat-degradiert-putin-kann-jetzt-nur-noch-auf-china-hoffen_id_73598170.html


President Putin, based on overoptimistic assumptions for the attack and an unrealistic assessment of the overall situation, has done serious damage to Russia. The country is politically isolated, economically under immense pressure, domestically repressive and, with a view to its future, deprived of all the advantages of its natural resources and location. At the end of this war, Russia will not be the third world power that Putin wanted to upgrade the "Russian world" to with his neo-imperialist ambitions, but a large territorial country with a shortage economy and nuclear missiles.

A Soviet Union 2.0 without ideological appeal and global political reach. Helmut Schmidt had called this figure "Upper Volta with nuclear missiles" to sum up the tension between poverty (Upper Volta is now called Burkina Faso) and high armament.

The war is lost because Russia cannot achieve its goals in the war - the rapid defeat of Ukrainian forces, the installation of a Russia-friendly government, and the liberation of the population. The flight of people to the West gives the lie to Russian propaganda on a daily basis. Ukraine will be able to be occupied, but will not be Russia-friendly for a very long time.

The war is lost because Russia cannot implement its purposes with the war - the neutrality and demilitarization of Ukraine, a buffer of weakened states on the NATO eastern border, and the separation of European and American security. Russia has done the opposite with respect to all the political demands of December 2021: the political strengthening of the West, the military buildup on the NATO border, the cohesion between EU member states.

Russia may still be stalling for time in the hope that the costs incurred in the West will change this, that the NATO and EU states will fall out. But it does not look like that at the moment. Ukraine, on the other hand, is already "winning" this war if it does not obviously lose it. The question then is how long Russia can endure such a situation of "bloody stalemate" in the war.

President Putin at the same time does not want to lose the war. He is committed to expanding Russia's sphere of influence again, restoring the Russian world (which includes all the territories on which Russians live), and returning Russia to its status as a world power. The greatest geopolitical disaster of the 20th century, as President Putin called the fall of the Soviet Union, should be eradicated. Internally, it is currently succeeding as Russia approaches the Soviet Union in degree of internal repression, political justice, and economic isolation.

Externally, it has failed because military power is a necessary shield for states (something Europe is just now relearning) but is less useful as a sword for achieving political goals. This is where it has its greatest effect when it is not used. The war Russia is waging, on the other hand, has led to a situation in which - beyond its nuclear armament - the striking power of its armed forces is now estimated to be lower than before the war. 40,000 of the 190,000 troops led into Ukraine are reported to have been killed, wounded or deserted after a month.

The economic outlook for Russia is bleak. Russia has set back integration into the world economy by thirty years in one month. In the future, it will no longer be considered a reliable supplier of energy in many solvent countries and will therefore lose supply contracts. This will lower the price of Russian exports to other states, as has now been demonstrated by India, which buys oil at a discount. The ruble will remain a currency limited to Russia, unlike what the Russian government was aiming for, which saw its currency in a basket of international reserve currencies. Production and consumption will be curtailed in Russia, and the country will quickly lose touch with the global economy. Again, looking to the Soviet past is looking to the Russian future.

President Putin has lost the war politically, even if he wins it militarily - which it does not look like he will do at present. Ukraine will not have a legitimate Russia-friendly government, NATO is more united than before, the U.S. remains engaged in Europe, and deterrence on the alliance's eastern border is strengthened. Europe is not becoming Russia's zone of influence. At the same time, President Putin cannot lose the war without losing everything - including personally. This results in the fear that - driven into a corner - he could act irrationally and escalate the war further.

What are the escape options from this situation? One is that Russia must lose the war and President Putin should be tried at the International Criminal Court. Supporting Ukraine makes it possible to push back the Russian invasion, Russia recognizes the hopelessness of the situation and acts accordingly. The assumption that Putin is convinced he cannot lose the war is jettisoned here.

A second one is that a negotiated settlement between Ukraine and Russia should work out a territorial and status compromise, quasi neutrality against withdrawal of troops. It is unclear what will happen to the Russian-occupied territories. NATO member states would want to be designated by Ukraine regarding security guarantees, which would lead to far-reaching decisions in the alliance. The question of reparations would be at stake.

A third possibility is that Ukraine would remain in a military stalemate with a high use of force for a long time. Ukrainian territory would continue to be bombed, the flight of millions would persist, and the country would be prevented from developing-similar to Syria, but with a legitimate government. Whether Russia or Ukraine can sustain this longer is critical to this perspective. As things stand, this would overwhelm Russia militarily and financially.

The fourth possibility is that Russia wins the war, occupies the country and imposes an authoritarian system on it. Well over ten million people would then have left Ukraine. Russia, financially weakened, would be faced with the task of reconstruction without a population. At the same time, the occupation that would bind Russia's forces in Ukraine would devolve into an ongoing partisan war. For a longer period of time, this situation could probably not be hidden from the Russian public, which would also make Russian warfare public.

The basic conditions of these developments would change if China were to intervene in the war alongside Russia. This is something to consider, even if there is nothing to suggest it at present. Neither a Russian defeat nor a protracted war of attrition is in China's interest. The country was an early advocate of a negotiated settlement, but so far has not backed up this positioning with initiatives of any weight.

Apart from a military victory that would end up as a political defeat, the only way for President Putin not to let the defeat become obvious is to find a negotiated solution. Obviously, the Russian president sees things differently. It may be true that he was deceived by the Russian services about the preconditions for war. It is also true that he considers himself to be the best-informed person with the best judgment.

These are the usual deficiencies of autocratic rulers after too long a period of autocracy. By now, however, he might have a better picture of the situation, because presumably he is not barred from taking note of foreign media. However, it requires the ability to perceive and endure cognitive dissonance. In doing so, he would have to admit to himself that he has just unraveled the "successes" of the past twenty-two years. Russia has become a pariah state politically, internally repressive, economically without prospect of success.
--------------------------------------
Prof. Dr. Thomas Jäger has held the Chair of International Politics and Foreign Policy at the University of Cologne since 1999. His research focuses on international relations as well as American and German foreign policy.

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (http://www.DeepL.com/Translator) (free version)


Geostrategically this mess already is a massive loss for Russia, no matter how the Ukraine adventure ends on the ground. Personally, I think internally Putin is aleady busy with damage kimtiaiton and trying to find a face and maybe life saving option out. I already said ten days ago or so that I think he is practically done and that in the background his enemies already are forming up to deplace him one way or the other. Being the secret service man that he is, Putin will give them a fight for their money, but I stick to it: in the medium to long term he is done. And maybe they surprise me and cut it even shorter.


----------------------


Ukriane has lost patience with the endlessly hesitating and endleslly considerng Germans, and ordered AT weapons directly at German producers after Bubble-Olaf left his promises for direct support fore the Ukraine to the word clouds he had ejected some time ago, and since then condiers it,m and conciser sit more, and then considers it. Ukraine has now bought directly almost 3000 AT missiles from German prodcuers and found an ally in Green economy minister Habeck who allowe dthe export - it is rumoured that Scholz is not happy with it. What a pitiful jerk. And the world still falls for him, I do not get it. First the world fell for Merkel, now for Scholz. Hey, wake up, world!



Bubble-Olaf also did not like it when the oppstion nailed him d own to only agreeing to his 100 bn social defenc ebudget if that is ADDITIONALLY to the promised 2% yealr ybudget - and doe snto get consummed up to finance the raise in the yealr ybudget, that way leaving the fals eimporesison of boosting dfeences while in fact it is just a deceptive package. I predicted that the 100bn Eurp pledge is anythign but a cerzainty - and they did not let me wai long before first doubts found a basis to question the honesty in the claim. Not to mention that in Scholz' own party a strong and growing opposition to any defence budget raises formed up qickly. These blokes want "serious talks with a Russia on same eye level" instead, they say.

[mapuc]

I just can't come up with what all the thing is called.

When Russia has withdraw its troop and material from Ukraine-Except the Donbass region the generals and politicians has a huge work in front of them.

They have to re-make the entire military thing. What they have been learned has shown isn't working the material isn't good at all.
And a lot more.

After having read an issue in our FB-group I wonder if UAV/Drones will take over the ordinary fighter jet-Making them somehow obsolete. I think in a future war 80 % of the assault will be made by these UAV/Drones. Where ordinary fighter jet will take care of the defence.

Markus

[mapuc]

Seems like NATO expect Putin will use weapon of mass destruction.

Those contingencies are expected to be central to an extraordinary session here in Brussels on Thursday, when President Biden meets leaders of the 29 other NATO nations, who will be meeting for the first time — behind closed doors, their cellphones and aides banished — since Mr. Putin invaded Ukraine.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/23/us/politics/biden-russia-nuclear-weapons.html

Markus

[Rockstar]

We were told here in America his starlink would provide millions of people cheap internet service. If what you say is true he is a lie.He is nothing more than a globalist hack. And would turn those satellites on everyday citizens to control them.And the government would guide their drones right down on any citizens house the local government hacks think need to be destroyed.I can only see the death of the children and old folks.If starlink can control these type of missiles then starlink needs to be destroyed and it's creator.

You just have to visit Subsim more often :subsim: .I’ve pointed out what Skybird said long before the first satellites even went into space. Just last year I mentioned DARPA and Project Blackjack. Oh yes some may have withheld information, or didn’t do their homework, but nobody lied.

Ya got to admit it’s some pretty high speed low level sneaky Pete kinda sheet. Betcha it was used to locate generals using cell phones with pin point accuracy :03:

[Skybird]

I once posted about that if only you put the hardware effort into it (plenty and expensive hardware and quite some expertise and knoweldge), you could pinoint even a switched-off smartphone and with battery taken out of it.



:O: Posted this some years ago.

[mapuc]

Heard on the news channel
(from memory)
They(Russia) has learned a precious lesson Never again will they film something and broadcast it-Like they did with these landing craft- They were saying to Ukraine-Here is our ship go ahead and hit it.

Markus

[Aktungbby]

Rule one of warfare: once the enemy is engaged the A plan changes...usually well past 'plan B'; obviously with the outspoken, suddenly peace-touting oligarch wallets(& megayachts) on the line(think: "greed is good" meets 'rubles is the sinews of war') who ever wrote that report better be a very high ranking FSB joe...or it's a one-way trip to an old gulag with a lonely woods for him...nerve agent or Makarov pistol round optional...Putin will not tolerate "loss of face" at this stage of the game. Even NeoNazi Jew, President Zelenski knew not to hold a peace conference in Belarus?!! :oops::shifty::dead: The crematoriums on those Russian artillary trucks are working overtime; ultimately, Vlad the Bastard has to answer to a lot of babushka-moms with dead sons in Ukraine...Moreover the longer NATO "feeds the fight" the longer buddy Xi's equally greedy China will wait before the Commies' other shoe drops and Taiwan is invaded.

If ever! We owe Vlad the Bastard one though; NATO's tepid act is swiftly unifying itself. Chairmman Xi is reconsidering his recently stated "friendship with no limits" relationship with Vlad the Bastard who obligingly held off the attack till after the Olymics were done!. In a speech on this date in 1983, President Reagan dubbed the Soviets the "evil empire" ...:doh: now proven beyond doubt. Now that Vlad the Bastard is "shifting his focus in Ukraine", ie Plan A has failed and there really are a lot of babushkas with dead sons for nothing, Putin must answer for his actions befor the Hague's ICC as an absolute precondition of restoring Russia's global standing. One overriding aspect of NATO and the West's current cohesive bonding is the Nazi '40s lesson 1: appeasement is fatal against Hitleresque megalomaniacs and must not happen...moreover like the famous quote after the Iraq war by a Russian general on Russian military hardware's failure against American equipment: "We have nothing to sell." The Neo-Soviet Iron Curtain 'special military operation' has shown itself to be a murderous land-grab krieg with no blitz , 7 dead generals and 40,000+ casualties simply to gain Russian Lebensraum by rape, pillage, and devastation by a corruption riddled conscript army. They should be removed from the UN Security Council at the minimum. My attention is still focused on the four military cargo'd vessels, recently departed from Vladivostak currently enroute to a destination in Europe...with the Dardanelles closed to such traffic by Turkey? Putin has also ordered more submarines into the Atlantic...!!:hmmm:

[Skybird]

Heard on the news channel
(from memory)
They(Russia) has learned a precious lesson Never again will they film something and broadcast it-Like they did with these landing craft- They were saying to Ukraine-Here is our ship go ahead and hit it.

Markus
^ It may not matter, it gets reported that all branches of the invading Russian forces are "heavily infested" with saboteurs and informants, especially land forces, obviously. Also, practically every pair of Ukrainian eyes watching Russians is a pair of hostile eyes.

I suspect its a mix of Ukrainian infiltration and Russian deserters and sympathizers. Thats what you get if you run an army of owned slaves and throw them into a meat grinder over lies and imperial megalomania - loyalty and morale may not be exactly high with such forces.

[mapuc]

"Putin has also ordered mor submarines into the Atlantic...!!"

This is what I have feared.

Markus

[mapuc]

^ It may not matter, it gets reported that all branches of the invading Russian forces are "heavily infested" with saboteurs and informants, especially land forces, obviously. Also, practically every pair of Ukrainian eyes watching Russians is a pair of hostile eyes.

I suspect its a mix of Ukrainian infiltration and Russian deserters and sympathizers. Thats what you get if you run an army of owned slaves and throw them into a meat grinder over lies and imperial megalomania - loyalty and morale may not be exactly high with such forces.

They were filming the unloading, The filming was, as I understand it, shown live on Russian TV
I'm not 110 % sure though..Hope they will show this issue in the news again tonight.

Markus

[Commander Wallace]

Now that Vlad the Bastard is "shifting his focus in Ukraine", ie Plan A has failed and there really are a lot of babushkas with dead sons for nothing, Putin must answer for his actions befor the Hague's ICC as an absolute precondition of restoring Russia's global standing. One overriding aspect of NATO and the West's current cohesive bonding is the Nazi '40s lesson 1: appeasement is fatal against Hitleresque megalomaniacs and must not happen...moreover like the famous quote after the Iraq war by a Russian general on Russian military hardware's failure against American equipment: "We have nothing to sell." The Neo-Soviet Iron Curtain 'special military operation' has shown itself to be a murderous land-grab krieg with no blitz , 7 dead generals and 40,000+ casualties simply to gain Russian Lebensraum by rape, pillage, and devastation. They should be removed from the UN Security Council at the minimum. My attention is still focused on the four military cargo'd vessels, recently departed from Vladivostak currently enroute to a destination in Europe...with the Dardanelles closed to such traffic by Turkey? Putin has also ordered more submarines into the Atlantic...!!:hmmm:


We will never get anywhere if you keep holding back your true feelings. :yep::03:

I do agree. First and foremost, Russia should be removed as one of 5 permanent members of the U.N Security council. I think China should be removed as well. Neither Russia or China follow the directives of the U.N with regards to the Ukrainian war and also with China in the Spratly Islands and also with China's actions against the Uyghurs. How can you have two terrorist countries as members of the Security Council with the veto power that holds over the other countries ?

Quote:

Peace and Security


The Security Council has primary responsibility for the maintenance of international peace and security. It has 15 Members, and each Member has one vote. Under the Charter of the United Nations, all Member States are obligated to comply with Council decisions.
The Security Council takes the lead in determining the existence of a threat to the peace or act of aggression. It calls upon the parties to a dispute to settle it by peaceful means and recommends methods of adjustment or terms of settlement. In some cases, the Security Council can resort to imposing sanctions or even authorize the use of force to maintain or restore international peace and security.


Quote:

Permanent Members of the Security Council

The permanent members (P5) of the Security Council are the five countries granted permanent membership by the UN Charter of 1945. They are China, France, the United States, the United Kingdom, and Russia. These countries were allies during the Second World War and are nuclear capable. Any of the five permanent members can veto a resolution to prevent its adoption by the council regardless of the level of support

https://www.un.org/securitycouncil/

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-59595952

https://www.worldatlas.com/articles/the-five-permanent-members-of-the-un-security-council.html


Both Russia and China are Evil Empires.

[Skybird]

UN security council, The Hague - both will not happen, and we all know that.


But it should happen, in an ideal world.

[mapuc]

Year 2022 is the same as 1938.

Germany got Sudetenland in an agreement later they invaded Czechoslovakia in 1938.

Modern time- 2014 Crimea was..(forgot the word)by Russia 2022 Rest of Ukraine is invaded by Russia.

Markus

[Aktungbby]

Year 2022 is the same as 1938. Think back further to 1904 and the Russo Japanese War. Putin is trying to restore Soviet power after the humiliating collapse of the Soviet evil Empire by any means: John Hay had a warm mind and a cool heart. The secretary of state to presidents William McKinley and Teddy Roosevelt (1898-1905) had two baseline gifts necessary for diplomatic achievement but not always seen together, a quick apprehension of the size and meaning of events and a subtlety and sympathy in the reading of human beings. A biographer, John Taliaferro, wrote: “His manners, his mind, and his conduct as a spokesman for a nation finding its voice on the world stage were nonpareil and pitch-perfect.”
As a young man Hay had been literary secretary to Abraham Lincoln ; no one had worked closer with him day by day. He was in the White House the night Lincoln was shot and at his bedside the morning he died in the boardinghouse near Ford’s Theatre. In the years afterward he held high Lincoln’s standard in books and speeches, but it wasn’t until the summer of 1905, when Hay himself was dying, that he fully understood what Lincoln had been to him.
He had a dream, he wrote in his diary, that he had been called to the White House for a meeting with Roosevelt, but when he walked in the president was Lincoln. “He was very kind and considerate, and sympathetic about my illness. He said there was little work of importance on hand. He gave me two unimportant letters to answer. I was pleased that this slight order was within my power to obey. I was not in the least surprised at Lincoln’s presence in the White House. But the whole impression of the dream was one of overpowering melancholy.” At what was gone, and surely what Hay had lost.
History is human. We know this but our knowledge gets lost in considering other factors such as landmass, economic strength, weaponry and energy sectors.
Here we get to our subject. In his years as America’s leading diplomat, no country vexed the patient Hay more, no nation drove him more to distraction, than Russia. I went back to Mr. Taliaferro’s excellent 2013 biography, “All the Great Prizes,” to quote some passages, and saw that I’d written in the margins “It didn’t start with communism.” It didn’t start with Vladimir Putin. Russia has long bedeviled.
In the first years of the 20th century the Russians were pushing to expand east, to extend their sphere and dominate trade and rail lines in Chinese Manchuria. They wanted to tax there. They wanted to secure the deepwater port at Port Arthur, where they had a naval base. They were moving to annex Manchuria. Japan felt its interest threatened—if Russia took Manchuria, it would move next on Korea. When Hay protested Russia’s aggression, Russia responded with hurt feelings—how could you accuse us, we’d never hurt you. In time he told Roosevelt, “Dealing with a government with whom mendacity is a science is an extremely difficult and delicate matter.”
The Russo-Japanese war of 1904-05 was a human disaster, with land battles bigger than Antietam and Gettysburg. Near the end, at the battle of Mukden, an estimated 330,000 Russian troops went up against 270,000 Japanese, with more than 160,000 casualties. Russia lost that battle, as it had most of its fleet at Port Arthur.
America maintained neutrality. “We are not charged with the cure of the Russian soul,” Hay wrote to Roosevelt. But all the way through he communicated with both sides, once comforting the Japanese ambassador, who had burst into tears. Privately Hay was disgusted by Russia’s cavalier aggression, and Roosevelt, who had just taken up jujitsu in his daily workout and felt a special rapport with the Japanese ambassador, was privately rooting for the underdog. He wrote his son Theodore III, “For several years Russia has behaved very badly in the Far East, her attitude toward all nations, including us, but especially toward Japan, being grossly overbearing.” A fact not unnoticed by equally evil Chairman Xi in his "limitless friendship" dealings with Vlad the Bastard as he seeks to recover from China's "Century of Shame'...I suspect Mr Xi, like Stalin with Hitler in the short lived pre-WWII non-aggression Pact, is simply buying time for his own Taiwan/Salomon/Argentinian ambitions which enabled Putin to shift his Sino-Russo boarder units to the Ukraine front...
At one point President Roosevelt was so angry with Russia’s conduct that he was tempted to “go to an extreme.” Hay, who didn’t unload much, unloaded.
“Four years of constant conflict with [the Russians] have shown me that you cannot let up a moment on them without danger to your midriff. The bear that talks like a man is more to be watched than Adam Zad”—a reference to Kipling’s Adam-zad, the bear that walks like a man.
They were both blowing off steam. But Hay never wrote of any other country with the asperity he did of the Russians, and ever after he and Roosevelt called Russia “the bear that walks like a man.”
In the end Japan won and Russia was humiliated.
Here we see our parallels to today, which are obvious. Russia wanted something and went forward alone. A disapproving world expected it to crush little Japan and was shocked when it didn’t. As was Russia, which had overestimated its military and underestimated Japan’s spirit. More than that, the war changed Russia. It spurred the 1905 revolution, which Lenin later called “the great rehearsal” for 1917. There were huge worker demonstrations, massive strikes, military mutinies. It was bloody. The people, peasants to urban intellectuals, rebelled, and the government almost fell, holding on only through new repressions and promises of reform.
Day by day the people of today’s Russia will come to hear about what has happened in Ukraine, will feel and absorb its consequences, will feel some embarrassment at what has happened on the international stage—all led by a leader who is detached from his people. They aren’t going to like it.
Something else happened in the Russo-Japanese war, and that was Tolstoy, the greatest man of Russia, its genius of literature and moral inquiry. He took to the Times of London for an essay. “Bethink yourselves,” he said to his countrymen. “Again war,” he said. “Again sufferings necessary to nobody, utterly uncalled for; again fraud, again the universal stupefaction and brutalization of men.”
“If there be a God, He will not ask me when I die (which may happen at any moment) whether I retained . . . Port Arthur, or even that conglomeration which is called the Russian Empire, which he did not confide to my care, but He will ask me what I have done with that life which He put at my disposal.” He will ask if I have fulfilled his law and loved my fellow man.My attention is still focused on the four military cargo'd vessels, recently departed from Vladivostak currently enroute to a destination in Europe...with the Dardanelles closed to such traffic by Turkey? http://www.warhistoryonline.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/battle_of_japan_sea_route_of_baltic_fleet_nt.png:o ops: < is nothing more than a repeat of the Czar's round-the-globe voyage to utter defeat at Tsushima Strait in 1905...in reverse:hmmm:

[Catfish]

Wait for the russian correspondent's take ~ 1:05 into the video..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4_6E_xu4830

"The end of any russian dynasty ends with a failed war", but the current dynasty's war is not over yet

[mapuc]

Our worried mind whether Putin are planning on taking another country after he has got control over Ukraine-Take it easy the Ukrainian has given Putin some second thought.

His plan on taking Moldova, Georgia, Poland, Finland or Sweden has been put back on the shelf.

His Glorious military wasn't so glorious after all.

Markus

[Catfish]

Statement by Jens Stoltenberg from middle of the week

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lZq2CorcfQ0

[mapuc]

^ They say there's no winner in a nuclear war
Have those who said these thing taken a certain thing into account

Bad material-I think most of us know now how miserable many of the military material Russia has send to Ukraine is-AFV, Tanks and other things who suddenly break down.

With this in mind I predict that more than 40-50 % of Russian nuke will fail on launch.

Hmm Even with 50 % of their nukes they can make a lot of damage.

Markus

[Skybird]

That woman is 100% correct, and I say that from a psychologist's perspective, she has it absolutely right. I said before that Putin suffers from a narcissistic-psychopathic personality disorder with paranoid and megalomaniac delusions. That is not a flu that comes and that goes, can be cured, can be healed from being confronted with your and my reality - that personality is him, himself, personally. This implies his construction of reality is different than yours and mine, he lives in his own, self-made universe, so to speak. Being a psychopath he knows neither remorse nor moral inhibitions, he knows the words and knows that peop,e rwct in a certain way to them ,but for him they are just5 sounds, their meaning is only an abstract definition to him, nothing thatr has any influence on him. He knows how to manipulate people by abusing their moral inhibitions and their remorse. But you canot argue with him on grounds of these, its not the language he can understand nor cares for. Ypou are tlakign not to the real Putin thjat way, but to your own conception your idelaized fanatsy of him, how you wnt him to be so that yu can tlak to thim. But he is not all that what you want him to be.


That way you fool around with youself. The psychopath may make your think you are in a dialogue with him - but he just manipulates you to make your believe that, and you do not realise it. In fact you just behave the way he wants you to: you beleive you are in a dialogue, have contact, talk in the emnaign of mutally enrioching communication.



Stop be an idiot! Its like with trolls on the internet.



Psychpathy, sociopathy is seen as untreatable, there is no therapy for it. You can only protect the public from such an individual by locking it away - or kill it.

[Onkel Neal]

Wait for the russian correspondent's take ~ 1:05 into the video..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4_6E_xu4830

"The end of any russian dynasty ends with a failed war", but the current dynasty's war is not over yet

Good video, thanks for posting. At the end one of the men says "We don't care about his (Putin's) reality..."

Well, buddy, you might want to care, because Putin can force his reality on you, and everyone. That woman is pitch perfect, Putin will not fail. His war is not over. I keep thinking of Hitler's decision to pull the walls down on Germany when he realized he could not win.

[mapuc]

Sorry I was totally wrong I forgot what Putin was suffering from mentally.

What his next target will be, depend which expert you ask.
Some say Moldova or Georgia.
While others say Putin are looking at Poland and/or one of the Baltic states.

No one has mentioned Finland and Sweden. Here I'm thinking the Finnish part called something with Karelen and Sweden it's Gotland.

Again I could be wrong I ain't no expert on Geopolitics.

Markus

[Skybird]

A psychopath does not "suffer" mentally from something, a mental problem. He simply "is" (what he is).

[mapuc]

It could have been posted in our US-Politic thread, however since this speech Biden held was about Putin I post it here.

White House takes aim at Biden immediately after historic speech

Biden has a long history of rhetorical blunders, but this one still stands out, says US analyst.

The White House on Saturday night lashed out at President Joe Biden shortly after he called on the Russians to overthrow Putin.

They said so in a statement, according to Reuters.

- The President's point was that Putin cannot be allowed to exercise power over his neighbours. He was not talking about Putin's power in Russia or regime change, the White House said.

Can't say that wasn't his point

Biden addressed the Russians directly at the end of his speech during a visit to Poland, urging them to overthrow the Russian president.

For God's sake, this man cannot stay in power, he said.

But from that statement you cannot credibly say that it was not Biden's point that Putin should be overthrown.

So says US analyst Mirco Reimer-Elster.

- It's absolutely crazy, because what he says is not ambiguous. He is speaking directly to the Russian people.

After the speech, the Kremlin reacted to the US president's strong statement that Putin cannot stay in power:

- That's not for Biden to decide. The president of Russia is elected by Russians, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.

A blunder in a class of its own

Mirco Reimer-Elster believes there are two possibilities for what happened during Biden's speech. Either Biden spoke out of turn, or he said what he meant.

- He's forcing his communications department to play "comic Ali." They're trying to salvage what is an epic screw up for Biden.

The US analyst points out that it was otherwise a good speech and that it is therefore a pity for the president that attention is now focused on the White House correction.

- Biden has a long history of rhetorical blunders, but this one is out of this world, says Mirco Reimer-Elster.

Focus on not escalating the conflict

During the Brussels summits, there was much talk of not doing anything that could escalate the conflict further, which is why the US President's statement is so striking, according to the US analyst.

- It's hard to think of anything more escalating than calling for the overthrow of the Russian president, says Mirco Reimer-Elster.

During the speech, Biden thundered against Putin, saying among other things that he has cut Russia off from the rest of the world, but that he refuses to believe that ordinary Russians support the war in Ukraine.

- It's not who you are, said the US president, who also urged Russians not to be afraid because "a dictator can never erase a people's desire to be free".

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)

With this in mind and what Skybird said about Putin- " He is what he is" makes me wonder how he interpreter Biden's speech with the mind he(Putin) has ?

Markus

[Catfish]

^ so translated with deepl, where is this from?

I give a rat's anus about what Putin thinks about this speech, you cannot reach this psychopath anyway. This was targeted at the US and, among others, Sweden and Denmark. The russian media will do anything but publish this.

The russian people overthrowing Putin? Hard to believe, maybe possible. In that case the faint chance of some kind of democracy developing in Russia.
But if this happens (what i doubt) it will be more like a military or security service coup, with the result that Russia will stay a dictatorship with someone else at the helm.

So some jerks are crying havoc about what Biden dared to speak out loud, it is what EVERYBODY thinks and hopes for.

[mapuc]

^ so translated with deepl, where is this from?

I give a rat's anus about what Putin thinks about this speech, you cannot reach this psychopath anyway. This was targeted at the US and, among others, Sweden and Denmark. The russian media will do anything but publish this.

The russian people overthrowing Putin? Hard to believe, maybe possible. In that case the faint chance of some kind of democracy developing in Russia.
But if this happens (what i doubt) it will be more like a military or security service coup, with the result that Russia will stay a dictatorship with someone else at the helm.

So some jerks are crying havoc about what Biden dared to speak out loud, it is what EVERYBODY thinks and hopes for.

The article is from TV2 Nyheder. Here is the article (Danish)
https://nyheder.tv2.dk/2022-03-26-det-hvide-hus-gaar-i-rette-med-biden-straks-efter-historisk-tale

So do I too I read about this speech and while I read it I came to think on what Putin "is"
How does a psychopath interpreter critics against him as person ?

Markus

[Skybird]

Much gets read into that blunder, and everybody doing so seems to have his own agenda. To me it was not more and not less than an emotional outburst, pointing out the obvious absurdity of a war criminal like Putin being left in power.


I listend to that speech. It had its powerful mom ents and was perfect for the audience - whcih wa sniot then Americna public at home, but the Polkish peple, and them seem to have taken it wuiote well - the quietness was tense, everybody was listening carefully, apparently. For that audience, he had found the right tone.


Putin has said much, much worse things, even called for the assassination of Zelensky. Not to mention the deeds he did and still does. So, whats the worries about Biden...???

[Skybird]

How does a psychopath interpreter critics against him as person ?


Not at all. Its just resistence that demands so and so much violence or manipulation to overcome if it stands in your way to relaise your demands and interests.

It is like you seeing that glass with flowers on the table not being arranged the way you want it to. Do you take it personal? No, but you grab it and place it the way it does meet your expectations. No thought on your mind it could have a will of its own, a life, emotions. Its just a glass of flowers, and it has to be like you want it to be, not more, not less. Period.


Psychopaths do not see persons actually as "persons". Only as things that walk and talk and can be (ab)used.

[Buddahaid]

Much gets read into that blunder, and everybody doing so seems to have his own agenda. To me it was not more and not less than an emotional outburst, pointing out the obvious absurdity of a war criminal like Putin being left in power.


I listend to that speech. It had its powerful mom ents and was perfect for the audience - whcih wa sniot then Americna public at home, but the Polkish peple, and them seem to have taken it wuiote well - the quietness was tense, everybody was listening carefully, apparently. For that audience, he had found the right tone.


Putin has said much, much worse things, even called for the assassination of Zelensky. Not to mention the deeds he did and still does. So, whats the worries about Biden...???

US isolationists see a Democrat starting another war by getting involved in European "politics", while at the same time saying if Trump was president, Putin would have been too scared to start the damned war in the first place. I wonder if Trump still thinks Putin is smart?

[Skybird]

Neue Zürcher Zeitung:



Turkish authorities suspended shipping traffic on the Bosphorus for several hours on Saturday after the discovery of a floating sea mine. A team of divers "deactivated" an old-style sea mine floating in the Bosphorus, Defense Minister Hulusi Akar was quoted as saying by the state-run Anadolu Agency. Traffic on the Bosphorus resumed after about four hours, according to Turkish authorities.

Moscow had warned last week of floating sea mines in the Black Sea. There was initially no information on whether there was a connection in this case. Turkey was in contact with Ukrainian and Russian sides on the matter, Akar was further quoted as saying.

The Turkish Defense Ministry had initially stated that a "mine-like object" floating in the water had been detected north of Istanbul. Ships had been ordered to stop at both entrances to the strait, an official from the Coastal Security Directorate told Deutsche Presse-Agentur by telephone.

Russia's domestic intelligence agency, the FSB, had warned that the Ukrainian Navy had mined the ports of Odessa, Ochakiv, Chornomorsk and Pivdenne. Some of the anchored sea mines had broken loose in the storm. At worst, they could drift through the Turkish straits into the Mediterranean. In contrast, the Ukrainian portal "BlackSeaNews", which specializes in shipping, reported that the Russian Black Sea Fleet had laid the sea mines on the route between Odessa and the Bosporus. There was no independent confirmation of this.

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)

[les green01]

US isolationists see a Democrat starting another war by getting involved in European "politics", while at the same time saying if Trump was president, Putin would have been too scared to start the damned war in the first place. I wonder if Trump still thinks Putin is smart?

don't know if i would call myself a isolationists or not but i read the other day biden said if putnuts use chemicals or nuclear on Ukraine we would retaliate now this not my backyard so it the folks in Europe backyard they should take point with US backing them

[Rockstar]

We were told here in America his starlink would provide millions of people cheap internet service. If what you say is true he is a lie.He is nothing more than a globalist hack. And would turn those satellites on everyday citizens to control them.And the government would guide their drones right down on any citizens house the local government hacks think need to be destroyed.I can only see the death of the children and old folks.If starlink can control these type of missiles then starlink needs to be destroyed and it's creator.

You just have to visit Subsim more often :subsim: .I’ve pointed out what Skybird said long before the first satellites even went into space. Just last year I mentioned DARPA and Project Blackjack. Oh yes some may have withheld information, or didn’t do their homework, but nobody lied.

Ya got to admit it’s some pretty high speed low level sneaky Pete kinda sheet. Betcha it was used to locate generals using cell phones with pin point accuracy :03:

To my friend Gorpet, Something else to look into is Project Thor basically it’s a weaponized meteor strike. Like a nuke but without the fallout. I remember when it was just a penny stock :D


Bring me Putin! lol but let’s face it, it’s probably more devastating than Hollywood could ever imagine. ;)
https://youtu.be/49xWJJvpjzI

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IFEyEL5wTTk

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0qs7f9YAO1Q

[Jimbuna]

The White House says President Biden was not calling for regime change when he said Vladimir Putin "cannot remain in power"

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has reiterated this stance during a speech in Jerusalem.

"The president's point was that Putin cannot be allowed to exercise power over his neighbours or the region," an official said.

The Kremlin responded by saying: "That's not for Biden to decide - the president of Russia is elected by Russians"

The western city of Lviv, which had been spared the worst of the fighting, has come under heavy rocket fire.

The mayor of Chernihiv says the northern Ukrainian city is now completely encircled by Russian forces.

The developments come despite Russia saying it would focus its invasion on the east.

[Reece]

Oh if only someone would assassinate PooTin!! :doh:

[mapuc]

It seems like there are a tendency to substantiate Russian bombing among civilians in Ukraine by saying USA did and do the same in Syria.

I can't remember USA having bombed a hospital on purpose in Syria !

Markus

[Aktungbby]

The Kremlin responded by saying: "That's not for Biden to decide - the president of Russia is elected by Russians".

The developments come despite Russia saying it would focus its invasion on the east. A bit of a double standard then?!! Apparently Vlad the Bastard can decide the puppet-rulers in Ukraine, Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania...and Moldava as he seeks to restore the Iron Curtain? @ Reece: as I timorously pointed out in an earlier post, we can't asßaßinate the bugger! He's doing most of our work for us. As with cancellation of Operation Foxley, (sniping Hitler at his mountain retreat, it was decided his poor leadership was of greater benefit to the Allies)! Megalomaniac Putin, illegally deporting Ukrainan citizens to Russia, false-flag attacks, murder squads in disguise seeking Zelenski, Chechen and Syrian mercenaries, and total lies before the planet ala the neo-Nazis he purports to be eliminating, is more useful alive: I'd hate for the Russians to find someone competent! Plus, I'd prefer to see him wigglin' on a rope...after his trial at the Hague for war crimes.:shifty::roll::rock::dead:

[Catfish]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XhM7goE4eGc

[mapuc]

Now I'm curious Why did this Swedish JAS 39 fly the route shown in the video clip and cross the Russian border ? I know that the Swedish pilot use to fly very close the Russian border near Kaliningrad when they are flying above the Baltic sea

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bvXKj2PM4p4
The plane shown in the picture isn't a JAS 39 Gripen

Markus

[Commander Wallace]

Now I'm curious Why did this Swedish JAS 39 fly the route shown in the video clip and cross the Russian border ? I know that the Swedish pilot use to fly very close the Russian border near Kaliningrad when they are flying above the Baltic sea

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bvXKj2PM4p4
The plane shown in the picture isn't a JAS 39 Gripen

Markus


No, It's an F-22 Raptor

[mapuc]

No, It's an F-22 Raptor

A fighter jet many countries, including Sweden would love to get their hand on. But it's not for sale to other countries.

Sweden toke part in some exercise with other NATO members over the Baltic States.

Markus

[tmccarthy]

:agree: I couldn't agree more. I will ask you this since you are putting together the map of NATO expansion and may have more insight. This is also an open question to our other Subsim members.


NATO started to expand eastward after the breakup of the Soviet Union / Fall of Communism in 1991. Why then did NATO need to expand Eastward ?
Wouldn't it have been better to show a sign of Good Faith and leave the current members numbers as they were ? Certainly, the U.S and other European countries like Germany and Great Britain and others could have worked with the former Soviet Bloc countries like Poland that had been in the sphere of Influence behind the Iron Curtain. This would not require membership in NATO.

I am a U.S Citizen, born and bred but I also think we have mishandled a number of things very badly. The above may be one such blunder.

"Why then did NATO need to expand Eastward ?"

I've never known an answer for that and I've been looking back into that for an answer since the War in Ukraine started a few weeks ago. I stopped following news re international politics in the early 2000s so I had a lot of catching up to do. My last memory from the early 2000s was hearing the Baltics states had been admitted to NATO and thinking, "that sounds crazy, that is exactly how you start a war in Europe." I assumed the answer for NATO expansion was going to be the left and the right in American politics continuing policies from the cold war. Questions like, "Why did Bill Clinton initiate NATO expansion?", "Why did Barrack Obama of all people take such a leading role in this confrontation?" has led me to see that the liberal left this time actually had the leading role. Just after I posted this a few days ago I was pointed to the "Wolfowitz Doctrine" from the early 90s and now see part of the conservative rights side. It is clear to me now that US policy for the last 30 years has been at least not the best path to achieve peace, largely misguided and even dangerous. The possible conclusion was so sad and disappointing I took the last few days off from exhaustion.

My conclusion is something like this: Since the end of the cold war for 30 years three groups in Washington from within Neo-conservatives, the liberal left, and members of Republican and Democratic presidential administrations with ethnic/Jewish ties to eastern Europe have used NATO expansion in order to defend Eastern Europe and drive America into a confrontation with Russia.

I've just learned most of this in the last few weeks or even days and believe me, I know it's a lot and I've been struggling with it the entire time. None of my family or friends want to even hear that I'm uncomfortable with the amount of possible responsibility America may have in this war. Here's a playlist of sources if you want to look into this. Senator Bill Bradely (D) video from 2008 is probably the best explanation I've found re the history and issues with the expansion of NATO.

I don't know what good this will do now, but since we are talking about WW3 and nuclear war I want to at least try and understand what's really going on.


Expansion of NATO military alliance playlist:
https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLs-cxH-Nqj4d5zY3czTv5N5YcJDJFIPa1

-Tim McCarthy
"another U.S citizen" and veteran US Army

[Catfish]

So what about the russian narrative that the Ukraine would have been overrun by "Nazis"?
The word "denazify" appears in russian propaganda since the first russian invasion into Ukraine in 2014.

Putin's propaganda is targeted towards Russians for whom remembrance of the Soviet Union's victory over Nazi Germany remains perhaps the single most powerful element of a unifying national identity.
Putin is looking to the past to create motivation in the present.

"What the regime is doing is using the memory of the war, and the very deep feelings it arouses to legitimise its military actions not only in Ukraine but in many other places as well."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2gNp0PfK0CI

[Buddahaid]

Sounds familiar.
https://i.etsystatic.com/17238269/r/il/d823ab/1611734999/il_fullxfull.1611734999_d8e6.jpg

[mapuc]

Does this mean that countries in the future can't join NATO...because Russia see NATO as an aggressive alliance ?

Ukraine has a long way before they can consider being asked if they wanna join the club. But countries Like Finland, Sweden and Georgia who meets the requirements needed. can't join.

Markus

[Skybird]

Nations can ask to join NATO, and NATO can say Yes or No. The deciison by NAOT mujst be unanimously.

Not more and not less it means. Nobody has a right to demand beign accepted into the club (may it be NATO or the EU).

There are no unwelcomed questions. Only unwelcomed answers.

Russia, because of its invasion and the many war crimes it commits, has forfeited any claim that NATO must abide by self-limiting treaties. That the interest to be able to defend itself against Russia is highly justified: this proof has been given by Russia itself with extreme brutality and consistency. The content of the treaty limiting NATO's presence in the Eastern European member states has become completely invalidated by the Russian invasion.

If Sweden and Finland join NATO, and in principle I have no objections, I think it would be wise if NATO immediately massively AND QUICKLY boosts combat capacities in Finland - just in case that Russia thinks it must react with another invasion to this "provocation".

---------------

Germany considers to buy the Israeli Arrow-3 system. If really pushing for it it could be operational in 2025. It has signficantly longer range and higher reach than the Patriots we still use (older versions of them, AFAIK). It seems Berlin finally (!) realises that the Russians have based short and medium range tactical nuclear missiles in Kaliningrad that could reach Berlin in 4 minutes.


edit. Just looked it up, the Germans seem to use PAC-3 of the Patriot.


Germany since two decades considers, plans, weighs options, talks about, babbles about such a system to develope, with the result that this kind of political surveillance all to often has: none. What I like about the Arrow-3, beside the specs, is that it practically is ready for production and thus: is to be bought off the shelves. Costs: around 2bn.

[Platapus]

It seems like there are a tendency to substantiate Russian bombing among civilians in Ukraine by saying USA did and do the same in Syria.

I can't remember USA having bombed a hospital on purpose in Syria !

Markus


There was that hospital in Kunduz, Afghanistan


But we said we were "sorry"

[mapuc]

There was that hospital in Kunduz, Afghanistan


But we said we were "sorry"

The question is- did they bomb the hospital on purpose ?

Markus

[Aktungbby]

There was that hospital in Kunduz, Afghanistan
But we said we were "sorry"C'mon now. 12 persons were removed from command; reparations were paid to WIA/KIA-$3k/$6/k families!?? and $5-million paid to rebuild the facility. It was chalked up as an accident! Now that's at least what I call..."friendly fire"...:nope: :k_confused:

[August]

Sounds familiar.



Looks like a rather obvious ham handed attempt at tying Donald Trump to the Russians to me. What's that make now, failed attempt number 7 or 9 or something?

And I gotta ask, did the boys at the DNC actually make that MRGA hat in the picture or did they just make a lame screenshot of some baseball hat ad offering free lettering. Judging by the lack of light shading i'm guessing it's the latter.


The quality of their memes has really fallen off lately. Just sayin'.

[Buddahaid]

I have no idea, August. I thought of it about three days ago and then found it was already a product.

In any case, I can't help seeing how much parallel there is by invoking past glory to motivate a modern base.

[August]

I have no idea, August. I thought of it about three days ago and then found it was already a product.

In any case, I can't help seeing how much parallel there is by invoking past glory to motivate a modern base.


All politicians and all political movements have always invoked past glories to motivate modern bases. What in particular about Trumps rather innocuous use of the same time honored tactic do you find so distressing as to spend days comparing it with a 21st century Russian strong-mans attempt to revive a dead empire by force?

There is nothing wrong with making America great and it certainly doesn't involve invading other countries or poisoning political opponents so I don't see the parallel. Maybe it's just in your mind. :hmmm:

[Skybird]

Say what you want - Russia at least stays consistent with it usual methods.


FOCUS writes:



Russian oligarch and Chelsea owner Roman Abramovich may have been poisoned during peace talks between Ukraine and Russia. The same is said to have happened to at least two representatives of the Ukrainian side. As reported by the "Wall Street Journal" and the platform "Bellingcat", this allegedly happened during the negotiations on March 3 and 4. It was about "chemical weapons", they say.

The negotiations had taken place in Kiev. Abramovich was part of the delegation of Ukrainian MP Rustem Umerov. He and the two Ukrainian representatives had complained of red and watery eyes. In addition, the skin on his face and hands had peeled off, the Wall Street Journal said, citing negotiating circles.

The Russian side is accused of poisoning the participants and trying to delay the end of the war by sabotaging the talks.

Abramovich was part of the negotiations, according to the "Wall Street Journal," traveling back and forth between Moscow, Lviv and other venues of the peace talks. He is believed to have a role as a mediator. This may have been one of the reasons why Ukrainian President Volodymyr Selensky asked the West not to sanction Abramovich.

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)

[mapuc]

^ We are discussing this in a stream on yt-where I asked what is the motive and means behind this step-'cause it is Russia no doubt whatsoever who's behind it.

What will the consequences be ?

Edit
Someone wrote:
"Bellingcat investigator says Russia's defense minister Shoigu and other senior officials, possibly including Putin, are residing in nuclear bunkers near Ufa in the Ural mountains (BellingCat)"
End of edit

Can't find any confirmation on this

Markus

[Skybird]

Consequences? After 3 more weeks since the "event" the war goes on. As inbtended by Putin. Just today it gets reported that he has refused any compromises alltogether once again.

[Jimbuna]

https://i.postimg.cc/254jHmFW/277362456-694019528391691-7095411355174145273-n.jpg (https://postimages.org/)

[Jimbuna]

Russian billionaire Roman Abramovich suffered symptoms of suspected poisoning at talks in Kyiv earlier this month, sources close to him confirm.

He has since recovered but experienced symptoms including peeling skin, red eyes, and constant tearing, the Wall Street Journal reports.

Russia is meanwhile developing measures to restrict entry into country for nationals of "unfriendly" countries, its foreign minister says.

The government has previously included the US, UK and EU nations on a list of such states.

Ukraine closed humanitarian corridors from its cities on Monday due to warnings of Russian "provocations" on routes.

The mayor of Mariupol says the besieged port city is on the verge of catastrophe and must be completely evacuated.

The next round of face-to-face negotiations between Ukraine and Russia take place this week in Turkey.

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jCNtjIkAceQ

[Onkel Neal]

Armor is on the way out. (https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theatlantic.com%2Fideas% 2Farchive%2F2022%2F03%2Famerican-volunteer-foreign-fighters-ukraine-russia-war%2F627604%2F%3Ffbclid%3DIwAR2g9hMR22Cczce-EwXCVwFf7yNUTuMbojH8xKgZA664zFiqzwPsZm5so8o)

American-made Javelin and the British-made NLAW. The past month of fighting had demonstrated that the balance of lethality had shifted away from armor, and toward anti-armor weapons.

I just don't see the feasibility, with the performance of these kind of anti-tank weapons, not to mention drones.

as Jed put it, “In Afghanistan, I used to feel jealous of those tankers, buttoned up in all that armor. Not anymore.”

[Skybird]

Armor is on the way out. (https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theatlantic.com%2Fideas% 2Farchive%2F2022%2F03%2Famerican-volunteer-foreign-fighters-ukraine-russia-war%2F627604%2F%3Ffbclid%3DIwAR2g9hMR22Cczce-EwXCVwFf7yNUTuMbojH8xKgZA664zFiqzwPsZm5so8o)
I just don't see the feasibility, with the performance of these kind of anti-tank weapons, not to mention drones.


^ Dreadnoughts on tracks. Then came the carrier and the submarine. Dreadnought over.

Autonomous drones. In swarms. With swarm AI.

Modular design with components "made in X" where "X" could mean any of two dozen different countries capable to build them and offer them for cheap sale in any tech shop. Responsibility for any attack conducted with such a system can always be credibly denied.

Nightmare.

The future talks more war and assassinations - and not just done by nations, but gangs, organisations, corporations. Credible denial is key to reduce inhibiton levels. Boys wanna play with the toys they got.


I think big warships and carriers also are on the way out. Subs may stay around longer. From that article Neal quoted:



If the costly main battle tank is the archetypal platform of an army (as is the case for Russia and NATO), then the archetypal platform of a navy (particularly America’s Navy) is the ultra-costly capital ship, such as an aircraft carrier. Just as modern anti-tank weapons have turned the tide for the outnumbered Ukrainian army, the latest generation of anti-ship missiles (both shore- and sea-based) could in the future—say, in a place like the South China Sea or the Strait of Hormuz—turn the tide for a seemingly outmatched navy.


I think I say something like that almost as long as I am on this board, didn't I. Many people back in those years laughed at me. I remind of this: the most common and popular mistake of militaried is to think that the next war will be fought with the weapons andn tactics with which they won the last war.



Bad mistake. Proven wrong in history so very often.

[mapuc]

There's always stuff who become obsolete after a war. Or the way a war is fought.

I think things like fighter jets and tanks/AFV will somehow become obsolete. I think it will be drones who will be used offensive and fighter jet defensive.
What they will substitut tanks and AFV with I don't know

Markus

[August]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jCNtjIkAceQ


So this was all about keeping the Ukrainian army too busy to reinforce the Donbas front? Yeah right.

[Skybird]

Is supplementaiton to Neal's quoted article:


https://12ft.io/proxy?ref=&q=https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/03/ukraine-is-winning-war-russia/627121/

[mapuc]

Just read following on twitter

Armenia handed over four Su-30 fighter jets to Russia along with specially trained pilots to take part in the war

Yerevan has denied this step.

Markus

[Moonlight]

Those jets are from the 90's aren't they?, I hope the Russians are still updating the electronics and whatnot to survive these modern missile systems or they're gonna be toast.
It doesn't matter a jot if these pilots are the worlds best airmen because if those planes aren't up to date they'll be shot down, its twitter though so its probably a load of rubbish as usual.

[tmccarthy]

Is supplementaiton to Neal's quoted article:


https://12ft.io/proxy?ref=&q=https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/03/ukraine-is-winning-war-russia/627121/

I would highly recommend reading up about Eliot A. Cohen the author, his politics, and political history before reading that article.


(edit reminded me of another man named Cohen who I think is worth considering, from 2010)
https://youtu.be/3MWtaW2Lq7I

https://youtu.be/mciLyG9iexE

[Gorpet]

I really urge you to abstain from viewing too much Tucker Carlson news and videos :O:

Who in the hell is tucker carlson?

[Gorpet]

You just have to visit Subsim more often :subsim: .I’ve pointed out what Skybird said long before the first satellites even went into space. Just last year I mentioned DARPA and Project Blackjack. Oh yes some may have withheld information, or didn’t do their homework, but nobody lied.

Ya got to admit it’s some pretty high speed low level sneaky Pete kinda sheet. Betcha it was used to locate generals using cell phones with pin point accuracy :03:

Well Rock. In my kid's future i don't want his satellite's and local law enforcement dropping Switchblade drones on my kid cause he and his friends parked their boat's on a sandy shore along the Saint Johns river here in Florida for a cookout and the Government declares them Enemies of the State cause their bitching about the cost of Life. Ya know what i don't even know.Really why the United States is even getting involved in something that doesn't concern us as a Nation other to make sure that Joe Biden and the democrat party's skeletons are destroyed.

[Catfish]

Did we have this already


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KJkmcNjh_bg

[Jimbuna]

Delegations from Russia and Ukraine are in Istanbul for the first face-to-face talks in more than two weeks.

Ukraine says its top priority from the talks, which will begin early on Tuesday, is to negotiate a ceasefire.

Chelsea owner and Russian oligarch Roman Abramovich has turned up at the meetings.

The Kremlin dismisses reports that the billionaire was poisoned earlier this month.

It says the story is part of an "information war"

Hopes of progress at the talks are slim, with both sides playing down the chances of a breakthrough.

Turkey's President Erdogan says it's time the talks yield "concrete results"

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-YUHpPeIHF4

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=koCjE7JNlHU

[Onkel Neal]

Russians reportedly have 100,000 troops staged, right?

Ukraine populations is like 43 million. So why don't they stage 5 million armed and supplied men on the border and give the Rooskies that's what's up.

Last reports before the invasion were ~200,000 Russian troops. Guess we see that wasn't nearly enough.

[Commander Wallace]

"Why then did NATO need to expand Eastward ?"

I've never known an answer for that and I've been looking back into that for an answer since the War in Ukraine started a few weeks ago. I stopped following news re international politics in the early 2000s so I had a lot of catching up to do. My last memory from the early 2000s was hearing the Baltics states had been admitted to NATO and thinking, "that sounds crazy, that is exactly how you start a war in Europe." I assumed the answer for NATO expansion was going to be the left and the right in American politics continuing policies from the cold war. Questions like, "Why did Bill Clinton initiate NATO expansion?", "Why did Barrack Obama of all people take such a leading role in this confrontation?" has led me to see that the liberal left this time actually had the leading role. Just after I posted this a few days ago I was pointed to the "Wolfowitz Doctrine" from the early 90s and now see part of the conservative rights side. It is clear to me now that US policy for the last 30 years has been at least not the best path to achieve peace, largely misguided and even dangerous. The possible conclusion was so sad and disappointing I took the last few days off from exhaustion.

My conclusion is something like this: Since the end of the cold war for 30 years three groups in Washington from within Neo-conservatives, the liberal left, and members of Republican and Democratic presidential administrations with ethnic/Jewish ties to eastern Europe have used NATO expansion in order to defend Eastern Europe and drive America into a confrontation with Russia.
I've just learned most of this in the last few weeks or even days and believe me, I know it's a lot and I've been struggling with it the entire time. None of my family or friends want to even hear that I'm uncomfortable with the amount of possible responsibility America may have in this war. Here's a playlist of sources if you want to look into this. Senator Bill Bradely (D) video from 2008 is probably the best explanation I've found re the history and issues with the expansion of NATO.

I don't know what good this will do now, but since we are talking about WW3 and nuclear war I want to at least try and understand what's really going on.


Expansion of NATO military alliance playlist:
https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLs-cxH-Nqj4d5zY3czTv5N5YcJDJFIPa1

-Tim McCarthy
"another U.S citizen" and veteran US Army


I do agree with just about everything in your analysis. We, the U.S certainly could have handled this much better than we did. There really isn't a lot we can do about this right now, though.






So what about the russian narrative that the Ukraine would have been overrun by "Nazis"?
The word "denazify" appears in russian propaganda since the first russian invasion into Ukraine in 2014.

Putin's propaganda is targeted towards Russians for whom remembrance of the Soviet Union's victory over Nazi Germany remains perhaps the single most powerful element of a unifying national identity.
Putin is looking to the past to create motivation in the present.

"What the regime is doing is using the memory of the war, and the very deep feelings it arouses to legitimise its military actions not only in Ukraine but in many other places as well."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2gNp0PfK0CI


I found the terms like “ denazify “ to be ridiculous and very offensive. I assume as part of the Russians overall “ Maskirova, “ This language was to try to unify the greater part of Russia to their criminal invasion, as you have mentioned. Usage of that term implies, as far as I'm concerned, that Putin is living in the past with a desire to re-create the former Soviet Union.


I agree with everything you have both presented. :yep:

[Catfish]

^ Thank you Commander Wallace, i would like to say the same to you :)

A lot of good information and videos here in this thread.

The Sun (yes i know lol, but..) posts this from 2 hours ago, not sure but.. Mariupol can fall every hour now, it needs help.
When this city falls Putin's troops will be on their way to the rest of Ukraine.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tSbcAX2Pvzk

[Skybird]

Turkey claims there has been progress made at the negotiatiosn, with Russia claiming it wants to reduce its attacks on Kyiv and Chernihiv.

Earlier there were reports Moscow intends to shift its military focus away from Kyiv and towards the Donbass.

I believe it when I see it.

Also, neutrality of the Ukraine, possible EU membership, but no NATO membership, no denazification LOL, and no disarmament are reported to have been agreed on. Kyiv also seems to have accepted the reality that the Crimean is lost anyway, and forever. On the Donbass, Kyiv still seems to will to fight and try.

I believe these too when I see them.

It further gets reported when Abramovich met Putin earlier in March and handed over Ukraine's demands, Putin should have thrown a tantrum and yelled at Abramovich to deliver his answer: "I will destroy you!"


The G7 clearly said they will not pay in rubels for Russian oil and gas. A Kremlin spokesman said from fridfay on ther ecould be stops of any deliveries. - I say: Okay, bring it on.



German chancellor Scholz attracts plkent yof cricism and suspicipon from Eastern #Europpean head sof states for his handling of the German positiuon. He is accused, not only by these states, to not do everything thjat germany can do,m and to nbtentionally delay and put his foot on the brake. This led to recently the Ukraine loosing patience and buying weapons directly from Germany , with green econoym minister Habeck giving it the green light to go. Scholz was said to not like Habeck's decision. - I always said and still saY: Do not trust Scholz, he plays foul, and thats what he has done his whole career long. That he is also very arrogant and blasé ist just the cherry on top of the cream.



Politico has a piece, german media say, where the author mercilessly foots a bill with Moscow'suseful idiots in German politics, including Merkel, Steinmeier, Scholz, Merz. What I think of Merkel, everybody should knbow by now: the worst political desaster in German and European politics since 1933ff, and I say that since over one and a half decade.

[mapuc]

Danish TV made a huge mistake some days ago.

In a news issue from the war they showed a video clip of a helicopter being shut down.

The problem with this video was-it wasn't real. It was from the game armA 3. Danish TV had taken it directly from the Ukrainian MoD twitter profil, without checking it.

Markus

[Onkel Neal]

News is now reporting Nazi Russia is claiming they will "scale back near the capital"...

... probably out of pure necessity. Is that what we're calling a retreat these days?

Hopefully the negotiations can build a ceasefire.

[mapuc]

News is now reporting Nazi Russia is claiming they will "scale back near the capital"...

... probably out of pure necessity. Is that what we're calling a retreat these days?

Hopefully the negotiations can build a ceasefire.

LOL I was thinking the same-What an excuse it's going terrible for them outside Kyiv. I also hope they will come an agreement and a ceasefire

Markus

[Otto Harkaman]

Repositioning troops. Find out where the fuel depots are and you have some idea of the next axis of advance.

[tmccarthy]

We, the U.S certainly could have handled this much better than we did. There really isn't a lot we can do about this right now, though.

Sadly, I agree. The most important moment, trying to find a reasonable compromise for all sides, that could have prevented the destruction of Ukraine and loss of life has passed.

Personally, I'm hoping to catch up, understand this conflict and be ready before the next one, one of the now obvious many planned conflicts in our future. If we keep doing it this way I think eventually we are going to be ruined.

[Commander Wallace]

Sadly, I agree. The most important moment, trying to find a reasonable compromise for all sides, that could have prevented the destruction of Ukraine and loss of life has passed.

Personally, I'm hoping to catch up, understand this conflict and be ready before the next one, one of the now obvious many planned conflicts in our future. If we keep doing it this way I think eventually we are going to be ruined.


With much regret, I share your views on how horrific and stupid the attack on the Ukraine was and remains. The Ukraine, much like other European countries after war, can and will be rebuilt. The loss of life of course can't be replaced. Nothing good or of any consequence will come from this stupid war.

I will take this time to say thank you, Tim for the great information and insight you have presented in this thread and others including those regarding the Ukraine. Other Subsim members including Catfish, Aktung, Markus, Jim, Neal and many others have presented great information and video's. I and I'm sure many others have gained some terrific insight into this war from your efforts and those of our other Subsim members who have posted. Certainly, we all have more to think about. :Kaleun_Thumbs_Up:

[August]

Who in the hell is tucker carlson?




Apparently he's somebody that Catfish thinks has unapproved opinions.

[Skybird]

Excursion.


Mikhail Shishkin was born in Moscow in 1961 and is one of the most important contemporary Russian authors. He studied German and English at the Moscow State Pedagogical University, where he received military training as a translator. Shishkin has lived in Switzerland since 1995 and has been critical of Vladimir Putin's policies for years.
------------------------
Starving, suffering, fleeing: Putin's army is a slave school

Ukrainians know what they are fighting for. Do Russian soldiers know? In my time as a Soviet officer I learned: the good recruit first gives up his human dignity.

The war plan of the Russian General Staff foresaw that NATO would not interfere with its forces in the so-called liberation of Ukraine. Why should the world end in nuclear inferno because of some Mariupol? This calculation worked out. There would be no no-fly zone in Ukrainian skies either.

The U.S. intelligence agencies, in turn, knew exactly how many tanks, fighter planes and missiles Russia had. They assumed that Ukraine would be defeated after a few days. In this respect, the Americans miscalculated. The war is not decided by tanks, but by soldiers.

The Russian army has failed. Ukrainians know what they are fighting for. Do the Russian soldiers know it?

Russia's army is still an army of the hungry

Russia is losing the war in Ukraine. Russian soldiers abandon their tanks out of fear and flee. The offensive is stuck, soldiers are demotivated, lack fuel, lack food. A glaring example of the desolate state of the Russian army is its rations.
Live on your cell phone Get all the latest news on the Russian attack on Ukraine with the Tagesspiegel app. Download it here for IOS and Android.

The whole world was amazed to see pictures of 2015 expired field rations that killed and captured soldiers carried on them. Putin's army has to maraud in order not to starve. All this says that the new army of Russia has remained the old Soviet army, the army of the hungry.

I graduated from the military training as a military translator at the Moscow Pedagogical College. I am an officer of the Soviet Army, a lieutenant of the reserve. I will never forget reading in the military camp in Kovrov at the swearing-in ceremony: "I swear to defend my socialist fatherland to the last drop of blood." Thereupon I kissed the flag, it smelled of smoked fish. Our commanders had drunk beer, eaten fish with it and then rubbed their hands on the flag.

The food in the military was miserable, incessantly gruel and an indefinable swill, so that we always ran around with a growling stomach and on Sundays committed raids on the nearest village. There we stole vegetables from the gardens, shook apples from the trees and almost all got diarrhea from it.

Kitchen duty was very popular, it was considered a feast, because we could eat as much as we wanted. When we opened the tins of stewed meat in the kitchen, we secretly ate half of it ourselves. The other half went to the officers' table. For the common soldiers there remained only porridge without meat. No one was offended by this, no one thought it base to steal the food from the other's bowl, after all, everyone did it when it was their turn at kitchen duty.

Each army reflects the quintessence of the social order. The Russian army plays an important social role in the country, it is a focal point for Éducation sentimentale. And the Russian army was and remains a school of slaves.

The deeper meaning of military service lies in the "non-regulatory rules of conduct," those unbreakable, unwritten army laws called dedovshchina. A soldier's position in the social hierarchy depends on the amount of time he has served. The older soldiers have virtually unlimited power over the new recruits and take advantage of it by forcing the recruits to perform heavy labor on a daily basis.

The good recruit first lets go of his human dignity

If you want to survive as a recruit, you must first become a slave, let your human dignity ride. Later, you go from being a slave to a master, and now it's your turn to beat the new recruits, to piss in their boots, to make them eat a slice of bread smeared with shoe polish, to take away the food sent to them from home.

Most Russian men complete this slave training and carry the acquired skills and abilities into each family. The brutality in everyday conflicts in my country is frightening. Tolerance is virtually unheard of.

In its 2006 report on the "Situation of the Russian Armed Forces," the Konrad Adenauer Foundation published the following figures: About 130,000 criminal offenses were committed annually. Criminal proceedings were initiated against 15,700 soldiers and officers, and 15,000 of them were convicted.

More than a thousand soldiers and officers received prison sentences for the theft of weapons, technology, equipment and financial resources. Physical violence accounted for 40 percent of all crimes. An average of 88 soldiers and officers died monthly (in peacetime!), making 1064 soldiers annually, 276 of them by suicide and 16 by physical abuse of superiors and other soldiers.

These were the figures from open sources. Later, Putin's army reform began. In recent years, such data were kept secret, according to the opposition Novaya Gazeta. The Minister of Defense swore several times that Dedovshchina had been eradicated in the army. That it is not so, testifies regular media reports about soldiers shooting and fleeing their so-called brothers in arms.

To be fair, it must be said that the army in Russia also plays a civilizing role. On February 15, 2006, then Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov told the Duma: "Many draftees see a toilet bowl, a toothbrush and three meals a day for the first time in their lives. Therefore, it is not easy to educate such soldiers."

Now this Russian generation also has its war

Who said that every generation needs its war? In Russia, it's true. Two friends of mine fell in Afghanistan. The next generation had to participate in the wars in Chechnya. Countless reports from veterans present the same picture of the Russian army: Hunger and corruption. It was common for commanders to sell weapons and information to Chechen rebels, in other words, the lives of their own soldiers.

The well-known journalist Arkady Babchenko, who himself had fought in Chechnya, formulated the now-famous principle of soldier morale in the Russian army: "Your homeland will always let you down, son, always."

Now the next generation has its war. The image of the reformed, modern, combat-ready army proved to be a self-deception of Putin's propaganda. If the whole criminal regime was based on the corruption and embezzlement of state funds, it was primarily related to the immense expenses for the reforms and re-equipment of the army.

The opaque practices of money allocation brought down all attempts at reform. Even the horrendous military expenditures could not change the critical state of affairs. The embarrassment of the defense industry became famous when a new-generation Armata T-14 tank broke down during the military parade in Red Square in May 2015 and had to be towed away. Production of this new development stalled. Moreover, much of the equipment is outdated and dates back to the Soviet era.

As for warfare in Ukraine, the same tried-and-true tactics apply to the Russian army as in all previous wars: tirelessly firing masses of soldiers. Russia has an advantage that the entire civilized world is deprived of: Putin does not care how many thousands or tens of thousands of soldiers he sacrifices in Ukraine. The famous "victory marshal" Georgy Zhukov put it most clearly: "Never mind. Russian women will give birth to even more soldiers."

Putin rejected the ICRC's offer to transfer the bodies of Russian soldiers from Ukraine to Russia. That's all you need to know about relations between power and the rank and file in my country.

Just when I was thinking how to conclude this text about the Russian army and its soldiers, my son came and asked, "Dad, why was a Greek foot soldier on the battlefield stronger than a dozen mercenaries of the Persian king?" I answered, "He was a free citizen defending his freedom, and these were slaves."



Neue Zürcher Zeitung, Der Tagesspiegel
Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)

[Skybird]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1alGxw9C82g

[Catfish]

^^ re NZZ: good article :up: (imho ;))

[Onkel Neal]

Good article. Corruption weakens everything.



The well-known journalist Arkady Babchenko, who himself had fought in Chechnya, formulated the now-famous principle of soldier morale in the Russian army: "Your homeland will always let you down, son, always."

A little more about Arkady Babchenko: Russian journalist 'back from the dead' (https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-44311111)

Ukraine staged the murder of a Russian dissident journalist in Kiev in what it said was a sting operation to foil a Russian assassination plot.

[Skybird]

Tagesspiegel on the economics of gas-threats and counter-threats:

An end to Russian gas supplies "hits Vladimir Putin harder than the West. And presents him with even greater problems than Germany." So says Andreas Goldthau, an energy expert and professor of public policy at the Willy Brandt School at the University of Erfurt.

And indeed, Putin softened his demand on Wednesday. Deliveries and payment in rubles are separate processes, he says.

First, he said, gas production from classic natural gas fields cannot be stopped overnight. Second, more than 40 percent of Russian state revenues come from energy sales.

Third, Putin can only use these revenues to cushion the economic losses caused by Western sanctions. His regime faces the threat of social destabilization if revenues fail to materialize as a result of the dispute over whether to pay in rubles or dollars.

Technically, a supply freeze is possible, Goldthau says. But Russia cannot stop natural gas production immediately, as would be possible with fracking.

"You can't just close a field that produces natural gas. It takes time to shut down production."

However, the loss of revenue is the even bigger problem for Putin, Goldthau analyzes. The diverse taxation of profits from energy production and sales is the central source of revenue for the Russian state. Putin depends on it to secure his rule.

Putin's shattered dream: Yesterday's friends
New negotiations in Turkey: Ukraine is threatened with dismemberment
The onslaught has already lasted four weeks. Long war of attrition looms - how can the West help?
Putin will stop at little. How far can NATO go without risking a world war?

"It's less about the ongoing financing of the war in Ukraine. It's more about the Russian economy, which is suffering badly from the sanctions, and the social consequences," says Goldthau. Whether the revenues flow or stay away "has direct effects on the stability of the government. This directly affects the leadership circle around Putin."

Germany can go into debt to make up for revenue losses, he says. "It has an excellent credit rating." Russia cannot, "its debt instruments are worth nothing." Now, if foreign exchange revenue fails to materialize, "Russia will hit itself harder than the West."
Putin tries to punch above his weight class

Putin's stipulation that he demands payment in rubles is "nonsensical" in this respect, Goldthau says. But there, he says, a "game of chicken" has been brewing, including the question: Who will give in first? "Both sides say: we won't."

From a purely economic standpoint, Germany and the West are more likely to be able to pull off this bet than Russia. Politically, however, governments in democracies can sometimes expect less from their citizens than autocratic regimes.

"The EU has an annual economic power of $16 trillion, Germany alone $3.8 trillion, Russia only $1.5 trillion," Goldthau argues. "It affords a military that it really can't afford. Putin is trying to punch above his weight class."

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (http://www.DeepL.com/Translator) (free version)


Meanwhile German growth prediciotn for this year was corrected from 4.6 down to 1.8%, and I predict it will drop further. Also, the official inflation rate has been corrected upwards to 7.3%, and that is - official inflation rates always are - already a beautifed value, the real inflation is significantly higher. I expected it already before the war to be in the two digit range, and it certainly is. It will not stay at the current status, but rise further. And it wil stay for long time, small fluctuations up and down not counted. The danger of a wages-price spiral upwards is so real now that it most likely will not be avoided.
The days of wine and roses laugh and run away like a child at play

Through a meadow land toward a closing door
A door marked "nevermore" that wasn't there before

[mapuc]

Skybird wrote
"Putin's shattered dream: Yesterday's friends
New negotiations in Turkey: Ukraine is threatened with dismemberment
The onslaught has already lasted four weeks. Long war of attrition looms - how can the West help?
Putin will stop at little. How far can NATO go without risking a world war? "

I say the economical sanction and other things we have imposed on Russia/Putin has pressed him up in a corner. The question is when will he start to bite ? When he does it's a question with what ? Chemical ? Nukes ? Biological ? Or will he increase the use of Thermobaric weapons ?

Markus

[Onkel Neal]

I hope this isn't accurate, but it's crazy scary to think Putin is this effectively strategic. :wah:


What if Putin Didn’t Miscalculate?
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/29/opinion/ukraine-war-putin.html

The conventional wisdom is that Vladimir Putin catastrophically miscalculated.

“Under the guise of an invasion, Putin is executing an enormous heist,” said Canadian energy expert David Knight Legg. As for what’s left of a mostly landlocked Ukraine, it will likely become a welfare case for the West, which will help pick up the tab for resettling Ukraine’s refugees to new homes outside of Russian control. In time, a Viktor Orban-like figure could take Ukraine’s presidency, imitating the strongman-style of politics that Putin prefers in his neighbors.


Rest of the article

He thought Russian-speaking Ukrainians would welcome his troops. They didn’t. He thought he’d swiftly depose Volodymyr Zelensky’s government. He hasn’t. He thought he’d divide NATO. He’s united it. He thought he had sanction-proofed his economy. He’s wrecked it. He thought the Chinese would help him out. They’re hedging their bets. He thought his modernized military would make mincemeat of Ukrainian forces. The Ukrainians are making mincemeat of his, at least on some fronts.

Putin’s miscalculations raise questions about his strategic judgment and mental state. Who, if anyone, is advising him? Has he lost contact with reality? Is he physically unwell? Mentally? Condoleezza Rice warns: “He’s not in control of his emotions. Something is wrong.” Russia’s sieges of Mariupol and Kharkiv — two heavily Russian-speaking cities that Putin claims to be “liberating” from Ukrainian oppression — resemble what the Nazis did to Warsaw, and what Putin himself did to Grozny.

Several analysts have compared Putin to a cornered rat, more dangerous now that he’s no longer in control of events. They want to give him a safe way out of the predicament he allegedly created for himself. Hence the almost universal scorn poured on Joe Biden for saying in Poland, “For God’s sake, this man cannot remain in power.”

The conventional wisdom is entirely plausible. It has the benefit of vindicating the West’s strategy of supporting Ukraine defensively. And it tends toward the conclusion that the best outcome is one in which Putin finds some face-saving exit: additional Ukrainian territory, a Ukrainian pledge of neutrality, a lifting of some of the sanctions.

But what if the conventional wisdom is wrong? What if the West is only playing into Putin’s hands once again?

The possibility is suggested in a powerful reminiscence from The Times’s Carlotta Gall of her experience covering Russia’s siege of Grozny, during the first Chechen war in the mid-1990s. In the early phases of the war, motivated Chechen fighters wiped out a Russian armored brigade, stunning Moscow. The Russians regrouped and wiped out Grozny from afar, using artillery and air power.

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Russia’s operating from the same playbook today. When Western military analysts argue that Putin can’t win militarily in Ukraine, what they really mean is that he can’t win clean. Since when has Putin ever played clean?

“There is a whole next stage to the Putin playbook, which is well known to the Chechens,” Gall writes. “As Russian troops gained control on the ground in Chechnya, they crushed any further dissent with arrests and filtration camps and by turning and empowering local protégés and collaborators.”

Suppose for a moment that Putin never intended to conquer all of Ukraine: that, from the beginning, his real targets were the energy riches of Ukraine’s east, which contain Europe’s second-largest known reserves of natural gas (after Norway’s).


Combine that with Russia’s previous territorial seizures in Crimea (which has huge offshore energy fields) and the eastern provinces of Luhansk and Donetsk (which contain part of an enormous shale-gas field), as well as Putin’s bid to control most or all of Ukraine’s coastline, and the shape of Putin’s ambitions become clear. He’s less interested in reuniting the Russian-speaking world than he is in securing Russia’s energy dominance.

“Under the guise of an invasion, Putin is executing an enormous heist,” said Canadian energy expert David Knight Legg. As for what’s left of a mostly landlocked Ukraine, it will likely become a welfare case for the West, which will help pick up the tab for resettling Ukraine’s refugees to new homes outside of Russian control. In time, a Viktor Orban-like figure could take Ukraine’s presidency, imitating the strongman-style of politics that Putin prefers in his neighbors.

If this analysis is right, then Putin doesn’t seem like the miscalculating loser his critics make him out to be.

It also makes sense of his strategy of targeting civilians. More than simply a way of compensating for the incompetence of Russian troops, the mass killing of civilians puts immense pressure on Zelensky to agree to the very things Putin has demanded all along: territorial concessions and Ukrainian neutrality. The West will also look for any opportunity to de-escalate, especially as we convince ourselves that a mentally unstable Putin is prepared to use nuclear weapons.

Within Russia, the war has already served Putin’s political purposes. Many in the professional middle class — the people most sympathetic to dissidents like Aleksei Navalny — have gone into self-imposed exile. The remnants of a free press have been shuttered, probably for good. To the extent that Russia’s military has embarrassed itself, it is more likely to lead to a well-aimed purge from above than a broad revolution from below. Russia’s new energy riches could eventually help it shake loose the grip of sanctions.

This alternative analysis of Putin’s performance could be wrong. Then again, in war, politics and life, it’s always wiser to treat your adversary as a canny fox, not a crazy fool.

[Jimbuna]

Huge crisis: Russia seizes about 600 aircraft by order of Putin! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=im2vfKvhO0k

[Commander Wallace]

^ This action alone will make it that much harder, if not impossible for Russia to do business with any country or entity, long after this war is over.

[Jimbuna]

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has played down any hopes of a breakthrough in continuing peace talks between Russia and Ukraine.

He’s been telling reporters that Russia had not noticed "anything really promising," but says the chief Russian negotiator will provide an update later.

The Ukrainian governor in Donetsk says there's been Russian shelling along all the cities and towns on the front line that separates the two sides.

Shelling is also reported in the Luhansk region. Authorities there say there have been 35 artillery attacks on local towns in 24 hours.

Despite Russia's pledge to "drastically reduce" military combat operations, Chernihiv's regional governor claims Russian forces carried out strikes on the city "all night long"

The sound of artillery could be heard on the edge of Kyiv city centre this morning.

More than four million people have fled Ukraine, according to the UN's refugee agency.

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WBOR86jpLSQ