Military buildup

[magicstix]

Originally Posted by Randomizer

I suspect we're seeing just the opposite effect to that proposed by the OP.

It seems that people have forgotten that the overwhelming tendency is for developed countries to wage war against each other in times of plenty, when surpluses can be spent freely and massive internal debts incurred to pay for it all. Right now nobody can afford to war on a whim and negotiation for disputed resources in invariably cheaper than combat when cash is low.

I disagree. Both Germany and Japan began their wars of aggression specifically *BECAUSE* they had high debt (in the case of Germany) and few resources (in the case of Japan).

We're seeing the exact same setup with China and the West. China needs resources to feed its economy, but can't pull enough of them together. The West is in massive debt, a lot of it to China, and a war could be seen as a way to get a clean slate financially.

China has always eyed Siberia jealously for its resources, and Russia has always eyed China suspiciously for this very reason. If and when China's economy collapses under its own weight, I wouldn't be the slightest bit surprised if they used military means to get what they want.