North and South Korea are at it again

[Raptor1]

Originally Posted by the_tyrant

my estimates (battle for Seoul) assuming North Korea attacks first, using 2000 forces:
First phase (red lines) 0-10 hours: are the first wave of North Korean attacks. Localized breakthroughs could be achieved, but no significant progress by the north Korean armies. North Korean artillery would cause a certain amount of damage to Seoul. However, the majority of North Korean guns would be destroyed by air-strikes and counter-battery fire.

Second phase (blue lines) 10-24 hours: South Korean localized counter attack. South Korean strategic reserves are used. Reserves and militia are mobilized. At the end of this phase, south Korean forces would dig in at the green line

Third phase (brown lines) 24-96 hours: South Korean forces would take back and restore prewar positions. American forces start to arrive. Both sides dig into their prewar defense lines, creating a short-lived stalemate. South Korea destroys most of the North's air power. Continued air strikes would cause damage to North Korean Forces

Forth Phase (black lines) after 96 hours: South Korea drive into North Korea with assistance from international forces


what do you guys think?

I don't think that's going to happen, for a number of reasons:

First of all, there are tactical and logistical problems, relating to terrain, air power and the fact that much of the North Korean army is junk, which means that a direct assault on Seoul is most likely going to be stopped on the DMZ itself. So I don't think they'll get that far.

Secondly, according to what is known about North Korean operational strategy, which seems to be based on the Soviet deep battle doctrine, it's very unlikely the DPRK will even attempt a major breakthrough right across Seoul. You see, the deployment of the North Korean army (Or at least what is known of it) includes a first and second echelon (And a strategic reserve), much like the Soviet Army, with the first comprising infantry corps and the second tank and mechanized corps. The idea is that the first echelon formations will execute set-piece offensives across the DMZ, breaking through the enemy front line. After breakthrough is achieved, the second echelon formations will then act in support of the attack and as operational maneuver groups, which will rush through the gap and proceed to occupy the enemy's operational depth.

If the North Koreans hadn't changed their deployment and doctrine when I wasn't looking, I'd say the most logical course of action for them is to execute secondary attacks on Seoul to prevent movement of forces and attempt to achieve a breakthrough to the east of Seoul, in the center of the line, then use the operational maneuver groups to encircle Seoul and cut off the bulk of the ROK/US forces.

Of course, this most likely won't work because of the same tactical and logistical problems. The estimate of North Korean doctrine might also be totally off, but there's not too much to work with nowadays.