North and South Korea are at it again

[TLAM Strike]

Originally Posted by CCIP

Just out of curiosity, how many 130mm guns do they have possibly available there? And what sort of MLRS systems are we talking about?

I don't doubt, by the way, that whatever the type and number, the North would lose all meaningful artillery capability at the DMZ very quickly should a conflict start anyway. Heck, they'd probably lose most if not almost all of it within the first hour. But it's those opening salvos that I always reckoned to be a real danger to the South.

I'll have to direct such questions to the great piece written by my comrade:
http://www.militaryphotos.net/forums/showthread.php?162240-Bluffer-s-Guide-North-Korea-strikes!-%282009%29

Originally Posted by the_tyrant

my estimates (battle for Seoul) assuming North Korea attacks first, using 2000 forces:
First phase (red lines) 0-10 hours: are the first wave of North Korean attacks. Localized breakthroughs could be achieved, but no significant progress by the north Korean armies. North Korean artillery would cause a certain amount of damage to Seoul. However, the majority of North Korean guns would be destroyed by air-strikes and counter-battery fire.

Second phase (blue lines) 10-24 hours: South Korean localized counter attack. South Korean strategic reserves are used. Reserves and militia are mobilized. At the end of this phase, south Korean forces would dig in at the green line

Third phase (brown lines) 24-96 hours: South Korean forces would take back and restore prewar positions. American forces start to arrive. Both sides dig into their prewar defense lines, creating a short-lived stalemate. South Korea destroys most of the North's air power. Continued air strikes would cause damage to North Korean Forces

Forth Phase (black lines) after 96 hours: South Korea drive into North Korea with assistance from international forces


what do you guys think?

Not sure if the North would even be able to advance that far. With US and ROK battlefield surveillance being what it is any large mechanized force will just stand out and draw fire. Remember the Highway of Death? US/ROK aircraft flying above 12,000 feet will have almost free reign since most North Korean SAM systems are compromised since former WP nations joined NATO. Even the much vaunted S-300. If you can't control the skys armor is toast. Forget about the KPAF, they have only about 35 Fulcrums in service, the rest are MiG 17-23. I wonder how many aces the blue team are going to have on day 1? Especally if the US commits Raptors out of Guam right off the bat.


Just read on ID today that we have 5 CSGs and 2 ARGs within up to 9 days travel of Korean waters right now...

[the_tyrant]

Originally Posted by TLAM Strike

Not sure if the North would even be able to advance that far. With US and ROK battlefield surveillance being what it is any large mechanized force will just stand out and draw fire. Remember the Highway of Death? US/ROK aircraft flying above 12,000 feet will have almost free reign since most North Korean SAM systems are compromised since former WP nations joined NATO. Even the much vaunted S-300. If you can't control the skys armor is toast. Forget about the KPAF, they have only about 35 Fulcrums in service, the rest are MiG 17-23. I wonder how many aces the blue team are going to have on day 1? Especally if the US commits Raptors out of Guam right off the bat.

I guess it would take at least 10 hours for the US for formulate and execute a plan in order to delay North Korean forces

If North Korea sneak attacks, than i guess it would take North Korea maybe 2 hours to break through (nor sure though) certain points on the South Korean fortifications.
After that maybe North Korean forces could advance 4-20km per hour.

Now i have made 2 assumptions that may not be correct:
because of the geographical location, i assumed that South Korea's defense line is a point defense system. and not defense in depth
also, i assumed if North Korea concentrates forces that focuse on penetrating certain portions on the defense line, North Korea could break through. Of course, this might not happen
Also,

[TLAM Strike]

Originally Posted by the_tyrant

I guess it would take at least 10 hours for the US for formulate and execute a plan in order to delay North Korean forces

I assume we have plans on the shelf for any type of North Korean attack. Otherwise what are we paying the Pentagon for?

If North Korea sneak attacks, than i guess it would take North Korea maybe 2 hours to break through (nor sure though) certain points on the South Korean fortifications.
After that maybe North Korean forces could advance 4-20km per hour.

Now i have made 2 assumptions that may not be correct:
because of the geographical location, i assumed that South Korea's defense line is a point defense system. and not defense in depth
also, i assumed if North Korea concentrates forces that focuse on penetrating certain portions on the defense line, North Korea could break through. Of course, this might not happen
Also,

Well the land near the DMZ is forested hills/mountainous then south of the DMZ (where you put the green line) is the Imjin River which is a natural defense that must be bridged. Anphib tanks are no match for MBTs (heck most aren't even a match for a Bradly) so even if they cross they will get chewed up quick so engineers must set up bridges to cross or use landing boats. The river is going to be mined very quick with , and any bridges they set up will be easily spotted by birds in orbit or by JSTARS and taken out.