North and South Korea are at it again

[gimpy117]

If things don't change fast i think war is coming.

and im 19 im elliagable for the draft...

[CCIP]

I still wonder what the North's game is this time. They can't honestly think that war would be to their advantage now, can they? They have no chance whatsoever to survive as a regime, unless they can reliably count on China to bail them out or at least back them up when push comes to shove. And honestly, I just can't see China stepping in to defend them in the current climate. NK is really not worth much to them now in the big scope of things.

So what's the game? What do they know that we don't when they end up with an incident that is not only politically oh-so-close to all out war, but LOOKS like real war in Korea, complete with smoking buildings and explosions in civilian areas of the South? I honestly don't believe that the DPRK leaders are as crazy as some would like them to think.

[Gorduz]

What would it take to get China involved in a war on the south korean side. And a bit more scary on a north korean side.

[Takeda Shingen]

Originally Posted by CCIP

I still wonder what the North's game is this time. They can't honestly think that war would be to their advantage now, can they? They have no chance whatsoever to survive as a regime, unless they can reliably count on China to bail them out or at least back them up when push comes to shove. And honestly, I just can't see China stepping in to defend them in the current climate. NK is really not worth much to them now in the big scope of things.

So what's the game? What do they know that we don't when they end up with an incident that is not only politically oh-so-close to all out war, but LOOKS like real war in Korea, complete with smoking buildings and explosions in civilian areas of the South? I honestly don't believe that the DPRK leaders are as crazy as some would like them to think.

Ultimately, I think that North Korea's game can be summed up as smack-talk with guns. They want to make it look like they want a war without actually wanting to go to war. 'We're big, we're tough, we're not afraid of you, respect us' is the message. It's a ridiculous message to send, but stupidity has never stopped them before.

[Castout]

It's not stupidity it's taking calculated risk on the presumption that the South is not so eager to retaliate in full scale war and the fact that US economy and military are under strain hence the hesitancy to commit a new war to support her allies.

South Korea reacted weakly to the Cheonan sinking and they knew it was a clear message that the South would not risk war even to their small detriment hence this small island target. And if the South kept its usual way of reacting which is mainly media wars and stern bluffing the North will exploit this further betting that the South being so reluctant to commit to war when US is under strain economically and militarily.

One thing we need to appreciate of the North leadership is that they are not the type of cowardly bullies that some other nation leaders are. They struck at their strong enemy. To me that needs to be commended. And in all cases it's them who hold the initiative prompting the South to be reactionary all the time and making South Korea leadership and the west to appear weak and stupid. Why this is so is because while the South is trying to merely maintain her strong economy the North is fighting for her survival.

[Ducimus]

From what i read, the shelling ranges from 100 rounds to 200 rounds of artillery fire. That is significant. The DPRK wrote the book on brinkmanship. They're really pushing the envelope this time. I do wonder what their game is this time, but that said, this time, I think the possibility of the the cease fire ending, has never been greater. (except maybe the tree incident)

[CCIP]

Originally Posted by Ducimus

From what i read, the shelling ranges from 100 rounds to 200 rounds of artillery fire.

Yeah, the BBC is reporting 50 hits on the island and 80 shells fired by the ROK in return. Initially, from what I read, shells coming from the North also landed in the water (now, makes you wonder - is their aim really that bad, or may they have been shooting at something there?). So that's indeed a rather large number.

[the_tyrant]

Originally Posted by CCIP

Yeah, the BBC is reporting 50 hits on the island and 80 shells fired by the ROK in return. Initially, from what I read, shells coming from the North also landed in the water (now, makes you wonder - is their aim really that bad, or may they have been shooting at something there?). So that's indeed a rather large number.

They are shooting with 50s equipment that hasn't been well maintained for too long. So i guess its acceptable, since North Korea is aiming at targets near water

[the_tyrant]

since this is bound to appear anyways:
even north korea knows that Obama is weak.


the us government is currently in a poor state to react anyways
and the south korean forces could not expect to beat north korea in an all out war.
Therefore, Kim Jiong Il could use the opportunity to provoke the south to gain political leverage. It would be harder for North Korea to do this when there is a firmer pro-military US administration

Also, there is a rumor that Kim Jiong il is dead or is currently about to die.

[Raptor1]

Originally Posted by the_tyrant

and the south korean forces could not expect to beat north korea in an all out war.

I wouldn't be so sure about that, especially if it's the DPRK that is on the offensive.

[the_tyrant]

Originally Posted by Raptor1

I wouldn't be so sure about that, especially if it's the DPRK that is on the offensive.

remember, its Kim Jiong il over there
he will not be reluctant to use nukes(unlikely), biological weapons(likely), or poison gas(most likely) on the battlefield

[CCIP]

Originally Posted by Raptor1

I wouldn't be so sure about that, especially if it's the DPRK that is on the offensive.

Agreed, I think the ROK themselves are a force to reckon with these days. Their real question is not whether they can win even on their own - I think they're undoubtedly the more capable of the two Koreas. Their question is "at what cost?" - and the North is operating not so much on military superiority here as on unacceptable human, political and economic costs of the war to the South. They would win a war, but at the cost of turning from a mini-powerhouse on the world stage into more or less a third world country. And just the sheer amount of artillery aimed at Seoul, a world megapolis by any standard, would be as devastating as it would be completely unstoppable - even if that first artillery exchange only lasted as long as today's but with all barrels blazing before getting silenced, billions in damage and tens of thousands of casualties would result.

Also, while NBC weapons might be readily used, these are not militarily very valuable these days - i.e. they wouldn't do the damage to the South's forces so much as the civilian population. The ROK army is more than prepared to deal with the NBC threat and wouldn't be prevented by it from beating the DPRK on the battlefield.

And speaking about 50s artillery, I'm not so sure even 50s technology would be off at all like that. Guns haven't become any more accurate in that period, the only difference since has been really in spotting and coordination technology. But having held those positions since the 50s, I think the Northern guns would have their ranges known and marked very precisely... Especially given the emphasis the DPRK seems to place on their artillery capabilities. Thus me wondering.

[Ducimus]

Originally Posted by the_tyrant

the south korean forces could not expect to beat north korea in an all out war.

I HIGHLY doubt that. The south is WELL prepared, and has been for some time. I don't think anyone there has forgotten that during the war, they were pushed all the way to Pusan, and the country reflects it over the entire length of the penninsula.

edit:

Originally Posted by the_tyrant

remember, its Kim Jiong il over there
he will not be reluctant to use nukes(unlikely), biological weapons(likely), or poison gas(most likely) on the battlefield

Again, the south is well prepared. The likelyhood of NBC is not lost on USFK, or the ROK military. I never "sucked rubber" at mopp 4 more then when i was in korea.
edit: Come to think of it, my first time in a gas chamber was in Korea. lol.

[Ducimus]

Originally Posted by gimpy117

If things don't change fast i think war is coming.

and im 19 im elliagable for the draft...

That'll never happen. Our politicians are too spineless to make decisions and are only concerned about being re elected. Enacting the draft will end their re election possiblities.

What will happen, is the armed force in general will implent (again), the stop-loss program, activate more reserve units, and tap into the IRR again.

(edit: FYI, if you sign up for 4 years active duty, your contract obligation is really for 8 years. The 4 inactive years are spent as IRR. You go back to civilian life, but can be called upon if the crap hits the fan. In which case... back in uniform you go! You weren't issued a civilian job or wife after all! )

War or no war, you have nothing to worry about.

[nikimcbee]

@Duc,
I'm interested in your insite regarding all of this, as you mentioned you served in Korea.