Strike on North Korea [Archive] - Page 3 - SUBSIM Radio Room Forums

mapuc

09-15-17, 03:14 PM

One way to find out, calculate the cost of the destruction of Seoul, Pusan and many other major cities of South Korea, as well as nuclear attacks on Japan and the US mainland. Then add the casualties from biological and chemical weaponry detonations among South Korea, Japan and potentially the US (probably just Guam, maybe Hawaii), the add the military and civilian casualties from the war to liberate North Korea, roll a dice to judge whether China gets involved, then add the casualties from attacks from China and fighting a land war against China on the Korean peninsula if they do. Then add the collapse of the East Asian economy and the resulting major global recession.

Then compare the result of that calculation with the cost of putting up with continued North Korean provocations.

That's your answer.

Thank you Oberon

I would say you are right, they can keep on with these provocation....until one of their "provocation" hits SK or JP and kill civilians, by mistake mechanical or failure.

Edit: I know the answer. Weight the lost of these civilians against thousands if not tens of thousands dead-So even if 10-40 or more people would die due to a ICBM had a technical failure and fell on a city. there will not be any military response of any kind from the west.

Then there is China-Don't know what they will do in such a situation.

Markus

Mr Quatro

09-15-17, 05:23 PM

Have you forgotten that NK still thinks of SK as brothers and sisters and in fact SK thinks of NK as realitives.

They are more angry at USA and Japan than anyone else ...

Now what if the war goes down sooner than NK is ready ... obviously they are not ready yet, right?

What if we do go to war (it won't be just bullets and field armor) and NK fights back by firing some missiles off and they are dud's.

Due to they haven't figured out how to miniature the nuclear device on a warhead yet (at least they haven't tested it yet).

So with these what if's ... what are our chances of stopping NK from being a terror to Japan and Guam and Hawaii and of course the USA?

I think our chances are good and that a white flag would prevail before we could finish NK off ... that's my two Susan B Anthony's thoughts. :yep:

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/7/75/Anthony_dollar_coin.jpg

Reece

09-15-17, 08:40 PM

You don't piss off Japan and get away with it ... :o
Yet he does!!:oops::doh:

Oberon

09-15-17, 09:19 PM

Due to they haven't figured out how to miniature the nuclear device on a warhead yet (at least they haven't tested it yet).

Then what was that big boom the other day? They showed us the device. Twice in fact.

Or does it only count if they fire an ICBM into the middle of the Pacific and detonate it? In which case, since the Soviets never did that does it mean they didn't have nuclear warheads? What about India? France? The UK?

They have the tech. They have the delivery system. The only variable is accuracy, but they're fixing that by making the explosion bigger.

Buddahaid

09-15-17, 09:37 PM

If this "war" breaks out, everyone loses! I just don't see China and Russia rolling with that.

Jimbuna

09-16-17, 04:08 AM

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has vowed to reach the country's nuclear goals, according to state media.
The aim was to establish "equilibrium" of military force with the US, the KCNA news agency quoted him as saying.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-41289532

I think NK will succeed with the former but hopelessly fail with the latter.

Catfish

09-16-17, 05:08 AM

The question really is whether one should further wait to kill a rabid dog, so all is becoming worse in the end.

But it should be done to remove the glorious leader and his entourage, not bomb civilians. Any chances China would support that?

Jimbuna

09-16-17, 05:33 AM

I doubt it, they don't want millions of refugees flooding across their borders as a consequence of the internal NK turmoil that would be created.

China have consistently stated they don't want a nuclear armed NK but I don't see them doing much if anything to prevent it.

Oberon

09-16-17, 05:48 AM

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-41289532

I think NK will succeed with the former but hopelessly fail with the latter.

They don't have to have the same amount of nukes as the US, just enough to make the US think twice about attacking. That's a form of equilibrium.

The question really is whether one should further wait to kill a rabid dog, so all is becoming worse in the end.

But it should be done to remove the glorious leader and his entourage, not bomb civilians. Any chances China would support that?

Nope. Not a chance.

Let's break it down. During the Cold War both the US and Soviet Union were terrified that either would try for a decapitation strike, so they created systems in order to discourage such a thing from happening. The US created a system where there would be political and military back-ups and advanced warning systems, the Soviet Union developed one that would automatically launch their arsenal if certain conditions were met. The UK just told its submarine captains to listen to Radio Four.
Either which way, if Kim Jong-un is removed from the equation then there is a good chance that the North Korean strategic missile forces will receive orders to fire. It could be something as simple as they're told to listen to Radio Pyongyang, and if that goes off the air then they fire.

Even without the risk of thousands, if not millions being killed in nuclear fire, there's another reason that China won't back a mission to remove Kim Jong-un. The chaos caused by a sudden vacuum in government, which then creates a giant humanitarian crisis right on Chinas doorstep which it is not equipped to deal with.

So, Kim Jong-un isn't going anywhere, and to be honest, all the talk by the likes of the ROK of 'decapitation strikes' or special forces squads training to launch such missions is just increasing the risk that North Korea will preemptively launch a nuclear strike in the mistaken belief that it is about to be attacked. Let's not forget that their equipment is old and not the most reliable, and if they were to have an incident like the Soviet Union did in 1983, would there be a Korean version of Stanislaw Petrov?

blackswan40

09-16-17, 06:12 AM

Oberon

09-16-17, 07:14 AM

But even when/if the sanctions start to byte and the food prices in the shops go kitty wompass . due to lack of stocks and regular suply
The North Korean people start to go hungry then starve the fear of getting shot by your own army is not so bad because your going tobe day 3 months anyway as starvation kicks in if you get a bullet in your head or bayonetted in the neck you've no worry's any more your dead.

That is indeed a real risk. KJU is trying to change his economy, but he can't prop it up forever. I think that if it looked as though something like that was going to happen then the PRC might step in with emergency food aid. The ROK is already looking to send humanitarian aid to the North, because a collapse or revolution in the DPRK is not the rosy ending we in the west think it might be.

China's worst fears may come true hundreds of thousand north Koreans heading over the border to China
also they maybe a coup by his Generals or theres that much unrest that the country desends into anarchy a North Korean Civil war so to speak and the pesants are climbing over the walls of his palace to get to him to string him up wouldn't China or the UN be forced to get involved because as the DPRK Collapsese China and the free world would not want a scenario where Kim Il Sung orders a nuke strike on Guam Japan and Usa if I'm going to die ill take the world into the abyss with me

Well, Kim Il Sung is already dead, so I wouldn't worry too much about him, but his grandson might decide to launch everything if his government is about to collapse, yes, he might do the same if China and the UN send forces in as well.

A North Korea Occupied by China may not be a bad option the lesser of the too evils so to speak

Perhaps, but not so much for China since Beijing will have a large radioactive hole in it.

I think people need to realise that it's not in our interest to remove Kim Jong-un, because in the act of removing him we risk setting off a nuclear war. Be it through military action, or through starving the DPRK until a popular uprising occurs. Instability and nuclear weapons, particularly nuclear ICBMs are not a good mix, remember how nervous people were during the Yeltsin years about Russian nuclear weapons going walkabout? Do we really want to create such a situation in Korea?

blackswan40

09-16-17, 08:12 AM

When DPRK test another Missile and it went Wonky Donkey landed in a the suburbs of a Chinese or Russian city with no warhead just what rocket fuel the missile had what kind a damage would that do to ground zero the point of impact would China or Russia
have a rethink or would they still sit on the fence

I've just turned 52 this month I've had a good innings in the 1980's if World III had happened trust me I wouldn't have of gone to B & Q for a large tin of white emulsion to paint my windows white to reflect the heat rays back
I would of spent the money on Newcastle Brown n got Stoated in those days in
the 1980's Nuclear Warfare Boffins estimated 100-150 Missiles of all sizes from 1mgtn -500mgtns would be dropped on Blighty Ville England would have been the most radio active place on Earth but it might have brought the tulips up 4 months early spring might have come early
if chit happens where all in the same boat the big blue marble aint that big anymore Once the lids off Pandoras box no matter how much ya try you cant put the lid back on E=MC2

If the unthinkable happens id take a leaf of STEEDS Book n Listen to some Bad and ensure my fridge was well stocked with Newkie Browns

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cHTDkJ-bQqM

Rockstar

09-16-17, 09:35 AM

I think people need to realise that it's not in our interest to remove Kim Jong-un, because in the act of removing him we risk setting off a nuclear war. Be it through military action, or through starving the DPRK until a popular uprising occurs. Instability and nuclear weapons, particularly nuclear ICBMs are not a good mix, remember how nervous people were during the Yeltsin years about Russian nuclear weapons going walkabout? Do we really want to create such a situation in Korea?

There are some that seem to think they already did go on walk about in the direction of N.K. There are some people that think N.K. neither has the brains nor the ability to produce their own delivery systems in this short time. That they got them from someone else, some say China others say Russian sources.

If they don't want a nuclear war then they ought to stop launching them over a sovereign nation. Can you imagine the response if one those missiles malfunctioned and took a header into Japan? How about we simply remove the cause rather than waving around a piece a paper in our hands.

Oberon

09-16-17, 12:15 PM

There are some that seem to think they already did go on walk about in the direction of N.K. There are some people that think N.K. neither has the brains nor the ability to produce their own delivery systems in this short time. That they got them from someone else, some say China others say Russian sources.

If they don't want a nuclear war then they ought to stop launching them over a sovereign nation. Can you imagine the response if one those missiles malfunctioned and took a header into Japan? How about we simply remove the cause rather than waving around a piece a paper in our hands.

It can't be ruled out, but to be honest I think when it comes to the nuclear side of things it's pretty much a home-grown affair. When you compare how long it took the US with the Manhattan Project to how long it took the last nuclear power before the DPRK which IIRC was Pakistan, you find that the time between program start and bomb creation has shrunk, primarily because the basic designs are already fully researched and in many instances are in the open domain. Any nation could, given the right resources, create a nuclear bomb. They could also then shrink that weapon eventually and mount it on a warhead.
In regards to their missiles, a fair bit of reverse engineering has taken place, they started with the Scuds, and have done quite well in the medium range department, but the sudden development of the Hwasong 12 and 14 could well have come from the acquisition of an RD-250 engine or an entire R-36 ICBM. Likewise the Pukkuksong-1 is probably inspired by some early Chinese SLBMs, which in turn are inspired by Soviet ones. I mean both the PRC and the DPRK got some Golf SSBs from the Russians for 'scrapping'.
Either which way, if we're worried about proliferation now, with the Kim government in charge, imagine how problematic it would be with no-one in charge.

Agree that they shouldn't throw ICBMs over countries, but technically they're not actually penetrating Japanese airspace, and in regards to something falling on Japan by mistake, I think that would probably be covered under the same sort of scenarios as falling space debris, so perhaps the Space Liability Convention, which the DPRK (but not the ROK) is a signatory of. Although I don't know how a person would actually be able to sue the DPRK, perhaps they could settle out of court for a lifetime supply of Kim Jong-un literature? :haha: In all seriousness though, the trajectory that they tend to use is fairly intentionally across a part of Japan that is probably the lowest population density of the entire islands. They're deliberately trying not to overfly a high-risk area, they could feasibly launch it right over Tokyo, but they don't, they try to thread the gap between Hokkaido and the rest of Japan. The trouble they have is that they are, as a nation, fairly hemmed in by other nations. Look at this map:

https://i.cbc.ca/1.4266335.1504004813!/fileImage/httpImage/image.png_gen/derivatives/original_620/n-korea-missile-map.png

If they fire it too far north it goes too close to Russia, they don't want to do that because Russia is nominally an ally. They fire too far south and it goes over South Korea, which whilst is not an ally they're trying to take a slightly softer tone on in order to detach it from America, also there's a whole load of US bases down there, and it won't end well. They could fire it over mainland Japan, literally over Tokyo, but that would also not end well...so they choose the lesser of the evils and fire it through the Hokkaido gap, mostly avoiding inhabited areas. Of course, there could be trajectory issues either side of that line, so it's not ideal, but if you want to fire a missile into the Pacific it's the best route to use.

So why would they want to fire the missile into the Pacific? Well until recently they've been lofting their missiles, firing them in a high ballistic arc so that they land in the sea of Japan:

https://i.imgur.com/wYbGOiJ.png?1

Now that has a downside in that when the missiles come back down, they're coming back down at a much sharper re-entry angle than they would ordinarily do, which means that the data that you're getting for the re-entry vehicles is not representative of real operational conditions. So in order to perfect their re-entry vehicle they need to fire their test missiles in a more traditional ballistic arc rather than lofting. Thus, they fire it over Japan and into the Pacific. It's not ideal, but I don't think that they have many other options if they want to perfect their missile program.

Aktungbby

09-16-17, 01:11 PM

It can't be ruled out, but to be honest I think when it comes to the nuclear side of things it's pretty much a home-grown affair. When you compare how long it took the US with the Manhattan Project to how long it took the last nuclear power before the DPRK which IIRC was Pakistan, you find that the time between program start and bomb creation has shrunk, primarily because the basic designs are already fully researched and in many instances are in the open domain. Any nation could, given the right resources, create a nuclear bomb. They could also then shrink that weapon eventually and mount it on a warhead.
In regards to their missiles, a fair bit of reverse engineering has taken place, they started with the Scuds, and have done quite well in the medium range department, but the sudden development of the Hwasong 12 and 14 could well have come from the acquisition of an RD-250 engine or an entire R-36 ICBM. Likewise the Pukkuksong-1 is probably inspired by some early Chinese SLBMs, which in turn are inspired by Soviet ones. I mean both the PRC and the DPRK got some Golf SSBs from the Russians for 'scrapping'.
Either which way, if we're worried about proliferation now, with the Kim government in charge, imagine how problematic it would be with no-one in charge.

Agree that they shouldn't throw ICBMs over countries, but technically they're not actually penetrating Japanese airspace, and in regards to something falling on Japan by mistake, I think that would probably be covered under the same sort of scenarios as falling space debris, so perhaps the Space Liability Convention, which the DPRK (but not the ROK) is a signatory of. Although I don't know how a person would actually be able to sue the DPRK, perhaps they could settle out of court for a lifetime supply of Kim Jong-un literature? :haha: In all seriousness though, the trajectory that they tend to use is fairly intentionally across a part of Japan that is probably the lowest population density of the entire islands. They're deliberately trying not to overfly a high-risk area, they could feasibly launch it right over Tokyo, but they don't, they try to thread the gap between Hokkaido and the rest of Japan. The trouble they have is that they are, as a nation, fairly hemmed in by other nations. Look at this map:

https://i.cbc.ca/1.4266335.1504004813!/fileImage/httpImage/image.png_gen/derivatives/original_620/n-korea-missile-map.png

If they fire it too far north it goes too close to Russia, they don't want to do that because Russia is nominally an ally. They fire too far south and it goes over South Korea, which whilst is not an ally they're trying to take a slightly softer tone on in order to detach it from America, also there's a whole load of US bases down there, and it won't end well. They could fire it over mainland Japan, literally over Tokyo, but that would also not end well...so they choose the lesser of the evils and fire it through the Hokkaido gap, mostly avoiding inhabited areas. Of course, there could be trajectory issues either side of that line, so it's not ideal, but if you want to fire a missile into the Pacific it's the best route to use.

So why would they want to fire the missile into the Pacific? Well until recently they've been lofting their missiles, firing them in a high ballistic arc so that they land in the sea of Japan:

https://i.imgur.com/wYbGOiJ.png?1

Now that has a downside in that when the missiles come back down, they're coming back down at a much sharper re-entry angle than they would ordinarily do, which means that the data that you're getting for the re-entry vehicles is not representative of real operational conditions. So in order to perfect their re-entry vehicle they need to fire their test missiles in a more traditional ballistic arc rather than lofting. Thus, they fire it over Japan and into the Pacific. It's not ideal, but I don't think that they have many other options if they want to perfect their missile program.

http://www.subsim.com/radioroom/showpost.php?p=2509425&postcount=363 (http://www.subsim.com/radioroom/showpost.php?p=2509425&postcount=363) I agree completely! I neglected to post this previously: North Korea's latest long-range missile tests have all shared a common factor — they're shot nearly straight up in the air to avoid flying over any neighboring countries. But according to Mike Elleman, the senior fellow for missile defense at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, if North Korea wants a truly reliable intercontinental ballistic missile, it will have to eventually fire one at or over another country.
When a missile fires almost vertically, the missile's warhead, or reentry vehicle, enters the earth at an angle almost perpendicular to the earth's surface. Elleman says this provides a symmetrical distribution of heat and pressure on the vehicle, which travels at many times the speed of sound.
But when an ICBM has to actually fire at an angle to cover long distances, as is the whole point of an ICBM, it faces much different challenges. "When it comes in at a flattened out trajectory, it will experience a longer heating time and mechanical loads or de-acceleration loads over a longer period of time," as well as asymmetrical pressure and heat, said Elleman.
So while North Korea's latest missile tests tell them a lot about how to launch a rocket and drop a warhead back down, they don't tell them much about fighting the earth's atmosphere or how to guide the missile.
http://www.businessinsider.com/north-korea-icbm-reliable-overfly-2017-8 (http://www.businessinsider.com/north-korea-icbm-reliable-overfly-2017-8) Throw in Platypus's astute observation : I don't know what the legality would be for Japan to shoot down a missile that is not in their sovereign airspace.
Anything above the Karman Line (100km) is recognized as international space (no pun intended)
Anything under 30km is considered territorial airspace. The area between 30km and 100 km has not been decided on an international level. At this point we do not have an international incident that can be challenged.

Mr Quatro

09-16-17, 02:13 PM

Oberon

09-16-17, 02:44 PM

What defensive weapon can you fire at these NK missile launches?

What ship borne weapon would knock one down?

We don't have any do we?

I thought the US missile defense system in Hawaii on Kauai and the one in Alaska was to target warheads on their points of reentry.

But these missiles fall apart over the Pacific so that won't work on them. These two destroyers that just had a crash with cargo/freighters had some kind of Aegis system I think they call it ... would that knock down a NK missile launch?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aegis_Ballistic_Missile_Defense_System

That's the other kicker in this equation, by the time the Hwasong-12s are passing over Japan, they are travelling at an altitude of around 500km. The SM-3 which is the missile used in the AEGIS system has (AFAIK) never been tested at that altitude. The IIA is meant to have some capability against ICBMs, but the maximum it's officially designated for is IRBMs. If I recall correctly the highest contact that the SM-3 has intercepted was the satellite back in 2008 and that was at an altitude of 240km.

The AEGIS ships are there for stuff coming in to hit Japan, and even then it's a bit of a crapshoot, and the system isn't infallible. Likewise with THAAD. One thing that the DPRK could do to bypass all the THAAD systems deployed in South Korea is just launch from behind them, all the radars and interceptors are pointed north. If a submarine launches SLBMs from behind the THAAD, the THAAD is boned.

Against America there's the Ground Based Midcourse Defence system in Alaska, but that can be overwhelmed since it has a limited number of missiles and it wouldn't just launch one interceptor per ICBM, it would launch multiple ones, which means you just need a factor of ICBMs more than would be salvo launched against you and that is Americas primary defence nullified and they have to hope that the AEGIS can handle the incoming missiles and warheads in the very short amount of time that they'll have to intercept (think of the game 'Missile Command' but on maximum difficulty).

So...yeah, the US isn't invulnerable behind a missile shield, it can get hit, and Japan and South Korea are definitely not invulnerable. They would get hit in a war, and they would get hit hard. Sure, the DPRK would be defeated, the US and its allies would win, that much is a given...but it would be very Pyrrhic.

Rockstar

09-16-17, 03:12 PM

So its OK for a foreign government to pop off balistic missles over the UK. Provided of course the missiles trajectory is over less densely populated areas. Who knew. All you need to do is ignore it and whallaa we have peace in our time.

Oberon

09-16-17, 03:18 PM

mapuc

09-16-17, 03:42 PM

Mr Quatro

09-16-17, 07:05 PM

(Some off topic thoughts)

I have not only here in this thread and other threads about KJU and NK read comments on this topic but also among friends on FB and other forums(only reading)

Some say attack, "Attack at any cost before KJU destroy 1/2 of the world" While some say " Now hold your horses and think twice before acting foolish"

The problem is both could be right or both could be wrong.

Markus

(End of Some off topic thoughts)

That's not off topic ... your just reporting European thoughts about NK and how to handle the problem. It's not a game of course, but if it was a game ... would you play your peace plan card or throw a war gauntlet card down in the middle?

These Korean's are hard to read they don't think the same as we do :yep:

Dowly

09-16-17, 07:06 PM

http://www.reactiongifs.com/r/tbt.gif
https://i.imgur.com/BWYh6D8.jpg

Mr Quatro

09-17-17, 11:36 AM

That's the other kicker in this equation, by the time the Hwasong-12s are passing over Japan, they are travelling at an altitude of around 500km. The SM-3 which is the missile used in the AEGIS system has (AFAIK) never been tested at that altitude. The IIA is meant to have some capability against ICBMs, but the maximum it's officially designated for is IRBMs. If I recall correctly the highest contact that the SM-3 has intercepted was the satellite back in 2008 and that was at an altitude of 240km.

The AEGIS ships are there for stuff coming in to hit Japan, and even then it's a bit of a crapshoot, and the system isn't infallible. Likewise with THAAD. One thing that the DPRK could do to bypass all the THAAD systems deployed in South Korea is just launch from behind them, all the radars and interceptors are pointed north. If a submarine launches SLBMs from behind the THAAD, the THAAD is boned.

Against America there's the Ground Based Midcourse Defence system in Alaska, but that can be overwhelmed since it has a limited number of missiles and it wouldn't just launch one interceptor per ICBM, it would launch multiple ones, which means you just need a factor of ICBMs more than would be salvo launched against you and that is Americas primary defence nullified and they have to hope that the AEGIS can handle the incoming missiles and warheads in the very short amount of time that they'll have to intercept (think of the game 'Missile Command' but on maximum difficulty).

So...yeah, the US isn't invulnerable behind a missile shield, it can get hit, and Japan and South Korea are definitely not invulnerable. They would get hit in a war, and they would get hit hard. Sure, the DPRK would be defeated, the US and its allies would win, that much is a given...but it would be very Pyrrhic.

So basically your saying that no one is sure we could knock anyone's ICBM missile down upon launch or in this case a high fly over Japan?

You sure seem to know a lot for a young man ... Keep up the good work, sometimes your right on and sometimes your not :D :up:

Oberon

09-17-17, 12:39 PM

So basically your saying that no one is sure we could knock anyone's ICBM missile down upon launch or in this case a high fly over Japan?

Based on currently released data. The current systems that are available work primarily on the terminal phase, catching the thing on the way down. It has a fairly limited window of opportunity because of the speeds involved.
There is one system which intercepts in the mid course phase and that's mainly based in Alaska, although there's a couple of launchers in Vandenberg as well. Neither of which is any particular help for Japan.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Missile_defense#Trajectory_phase

Of course, most info is still classified, which means it could be better or worse than the estimated figures, for example I've seen a figure saying that the SM-3 Block IIA can get up to 1450km altitude, but that was written back in 2012 and I can't seem to find other info to corroborate that. There's ranges listed, but you've got to account for horizontal as well as vertical range since it's unlikely that the SM-3 would be intercepting something directly above it.
There's also speeds to account for, since various missiles will be travelling at various speeds depending on their position in their ballistic arc. Obviously the further you want to go, the faster you need to travel, that's basic ballistics, ICBMs tend to go between 4 and 7km/s at burnout, so you've got a very narrow window of intercept.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intercontinental_ballistic_missile#Flight_phases

It is really, as it was once described, a case of hitting a bullet with a bullet, which is primarily the reason why most early ABMs have a nuclear warhead, so you don't have to hit it precisely, just get near enough to it to kill it with the nuclear explosion.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/53T6

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LIM-49_Nike_Zeus

Oberon

09-19-17, 10:51 AM

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DKGCc-hW4AEQng2.jpg
"Hello darkness my old friend..."

Onkel Neal

09-19-17, 10:57 AM

The media is freaking out, it's lovely. Nice to see we are promising to defend our allies.

Oberon

09-19-17, 11:27 AM

It's all fun and games until somebody gets nuked.

EDIT: On the up side though, the resulting millions of deaths, radioactive contamination and economic crisis will really freak out the media and the liberals, so definitely worth it.

Mr Quatro

09-19-17, 01:41 PM

Onkel Neal

09-19-17, 01:54 PM

Panic mode: achieved

Jimbuna

09-19-17, 02:19 PM

Well I'm convinced now of at least one thing and that is that neither side are currently prepared to take any notice of the pleas of China and Russia to tone down the rhetoric.

I hope Trump hasn't painted himself into a corner after the speech he gave at the UN.

Credibility can mean so much in the eyes of the world.

US President Donald Trump has told the UN General Assembly that America would destroy North Korea if forced to defend itself or its allies.
In his debut speech, he mocked North Korea's leader, Kim Jong-un, saying: "Rocket man is on a suicide mission."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-41324970

mapuc

09-19-17, 02:37 PM

Reading Jim's comment have made me concluded that a peaceful agreement of some kind-seems very far away

I guess the only thing we can do is prepare for the worse and have a little hope for a little light in the end of this tunnel.

Markus

Jimbuna

09-19-17, 02:40 PM

Oh, believe you me, there would be plenty of light, enough to blind you if you looked directly toward it.

Oberon

09-19-17, 02:42 PM

Chill out man ... it hasn't happened yet.

Haven't you ever played poker?

I've been thinking of it more as a gun, if a guy has a loaded gun and he's got it aimed in your general direction, you don't taunt him to shoot it, and if you're going to draw and shoot him...you better hope that you're quick, and that you don't miss. :03:

Platapus

09-19-17, 03:05 PM

Must suck to be assigned to South Korea these days. I bet a lot of GI's are sweating.

Oberon

09-19-17, 03:19 PM

Must suck to be assigned to South Korea these days. I bet a lot of GI's are sweating.

Especially since the US military can't evacuate the military families and civilians since that could be construed as the beginning of an offensive operation and lead to the DPRK launching a preemptive nuclear strike.

Mr Quatro

09-19-17, 03:39 PM

Especially since the US military can't evacuate the military families and civilians since that could be construed as the beginning of an offensive operation and lead to the DPRK launching a preemptive nuclear strike.

Think about how a conventional war would be over in three days ... all NK strategic targets eliminated on first strike ... No NK air force or navy left when the NK army runs out of supplies and the war is over.

No nuclear fallout ... rocket man dead or missing in action. White flag is flown as the entire world slams America for doing such a vile and terrible thing to a poor nation like NK.

Platapus

09-19-17, 05:23 PM

When I was stationed in South Korea, our virtual mascot was the Tethered Goat.

Gulp

Platapus

09-19-17, 05:25 PM

Oberon

09-19-17, 08:11 PM

Think about how a conventional war would be over in three days ... all NK strategic targets eliminated on first strike ... No NK air force or navy left when the NK army runs out of supplies and the war is over.

No nuclear fallout ... rocket man dead or missing in action. White flag is flown as the entire world slams America for doing such a vile and terrible thing to a poor nation like NK.

Excellent!

Now back to reality.

The US has no chance of finding all of the DPRKs nuclear missiles, it took days of hunting back in the 1990s to get Saddams scuds and that was in the relatively flat terrain of Iraq. North Korea has mountains and tunnels everywhere. They have spent sixty years fortifying their country.
As for hitting 'Rocket Man', you mean like how the US immediately managed to hit and kill Saddam Hussein on the first day of the invasion of Iraq? You know, that important mission where they killed him at Dora Farms where he hadn't been in five years.
So, the US launches an attack, or perhaps even before it does, North Korea launches...not just one missile, not some artillery shells...but its entire nuclear arsenal. There's two scenarios, the best scenario is that they just hit South Korea, Guam and Japan, in an attempt to destroy as many airfield and military bases as possible. The worst scenario is that they go all out and target cities in South Korea, Japan and the US mainland. The latter is more likely than many would think since we've been telling Kim Jong-un for several months that we're going to kill him as early as possible in our attack...so why should he sit around and wait to be killed when he can kill as many Americans as possible on the way down?
Of course, the nuclear missiles are just part of the fun, mixed in with them will be all kinds of chemical and biological weaponry, which will rain down on Seoul and Tokyo, perhaps even American cities too. Kim Jong-un has seen the Invasion of Iraq, he's seen the invasion of Afghanistan, he knows that the US has a major advantage in air power...so why do you think that he's going to sit back and let the US smash him into the dirt like a good little boy? He knows the best way to beat the US airforce is to launch everything before the US airforce can reach it. Which means if he even gets a itch on the back of his head that a US decapitation strike is coming in, he launches. If his radar system malfunctions and tells him that a US cruise missile is heading for Pyongyang, he launches. The North Korean missile system will not be set up to fail safe, it will be set up to fail deadly. Even if by some miracle we do kill Kim Jong-un in the first few minutes of the attack, the loss of communications will prompt the missile forces to launch. Have you ever heard about how the Royal Navy SSBN force detects that a nuclear war has begun? It listens to hear communications from headquarters...if it can't get headquarters then it listens for the BBC Radio service, if it can't get that then it's assumed that London is now an atomic crater and the captain opens the envelope of last resort.
Chances are that the DPRK has a similar system, so killing Kim Jong-un and/or destroying the DPRK communications network will basically tell the missile commanders to fire.
At this point it's basically a dice game as to whether the missile interceptors will get them all, but with an estimated 1,000+ ballistic missiles within North Korea, some will get through. At that point you just pray that whatever comes through just as a conventional warhead.

So, at this point Seoul is in ruins, Japan is on fire, there's a reasonable chance that a couple of US cities are on fire and hundreds of thousands have just died. Now it's time to actually start the war with North Korea.
Remember Japan in World War II? Japan was quite an open society compared to North Korea. Go and read up on Operation Downfall.

Done? Ok, you'll note that the US military is still using Purple Heart medals which were made for Operation Downfall. The estimate by the US military for casualties during the invasion of Japan was greater than every single casualty suffered by the US in war since 1945. A DoD report from a while ago estimated 200,000 to 300,000 US and ROK casualties within the first 90 days, and that was before nuclear weapons got factored into the equation.

Do you really think that a populace which has been brainwashed for sixty years is just going to fold? Especially if you've just taken out their leader. It would have been a bit like killing the Japanese Emperor before you bombed Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Do you think that the North Korean military has not noted the weakness of American forces to asymmetric warfare which has been waged against it by insurgents in Afghanistan and Iraq?

Think about it seriously for a moment, and think about the conflicts since 2001, and now think about a force that has chemical, biological and nuclear weaponry conducting insurgent style attacks against US forces. Think of the death toll.

Sure, the Allied forces would win, there's no question that the US would win a war with North Korea, but at the end of it there's probably going to be a lot of caskets with American flags on them landing in US airbases. As well as the big clear-up operations in whatever cities have had their centers destroyed. Oh, and the Asian economy would probably collapse, which means that the global economy would go with it. Oh...and if the US hits North Korea first, then there's always the possibility that China will step in, in fact, there's that possibility anyway if the US decides to invade North Korea. So that would be fun.

So yeah, easy stuff, should be over by Christmas. :up:

Oberon

09-19-17, 08:12 PM

Lemme guess: And we will be greeted as liberators

now where have I heard that before. :hmmm:

Some lessons are just never learnt. Still...at least this one actually does have WMD. :haha:

Reece

09-19-17, 08:43 PM

Onkel Neal

09-19-17, 09:07 PM

Oberon

09-19-17, 09:38 PM

Man, people tootle merrily along while a maniac dictator guides his crazy town regime on a nuclear ICBM building crusade, loudly promising to use them on the US, but wet their pants when the US pushes back.

What can I say, it's disconcerting when a superpower with a vast nuclear arsenal uses the same kind of language as a 'maniac dictator' with his 'crazy town regime'. :yeah:

Onkel Neal

09-19-17, 09:52 PM

Yes, but again, no distress over the NK building nuclear weapons.

If you read the text, it's obvious what Trump is saying is pretty well understood to be the consequences of NK lighting off a nuke on the US or our allies, they will be destroyed.

Oberon

09-19-17, 09:56 PM

If you read the text, it's obvious what he is saying is pretty well understood. If NK lights off a nuke on the US or our allies, they will be destroyed.

Pretty sure that much is a given. Of course, if they think they're going to be destroyed anyway. Regime change and all that fancy stuff.

Would sure be nice if Washington could decide if it's going to bomb North Korea or not, all this talk about not letting North Korea have a nuclear arsenal is a bit moot considering it already has one. Likewise, putting North Korea under constant military pressure is just asking for trouble. Neal, you know Operation Able Archer 1983, you know what almost happened. You know about Stanislaw Petrov. You really think the North Korean system is better than the Soviet system of the 1980s?

Onkel Neal

09-19-17, 10:06 PM

I heard a piece about Stanislaw Petrov on NPR on the way home today. He died about 4 months ago, it said. Alas. Good thing the man had strong nerves and common sense or we would all be glowing now.

Yes, NK has nukes but I'm hoping they don't have the delivery system perfected. But if nothing is done.... I guess we will have to see how reliable their systems are. I have always thought it is simply a matter of time and luck before a nuke is used somewhere in the world. Allowing nutjobs like NK to have them just makes it worse. Imagine in 5 years and the people in NK rise up like the Romanians did, and lil Kim is facing capture and execution. It's not hard to imagine he may decide to push the button, what the hell, I'll take them out with me.

It's a shame the US, China, and Russia cannot agree to stop this madness, remove the regime, and liberate the people of NK. :yep:

Oberon

09-19-17, 10:25 PM

I heard a piece about Stanislaw Petrov on NPR on the way home today. He died about 4 months ago, it said. Alas. Good thing the man had strong nerves and common sense or we would all be glowing now.

Agreed. We can only hope that North Korea has such men too.

Yes, NK has nukes but I'm hoping they don't have the delivery system perfected.The data is beginning to add up that they either have or will have very, very soon. Of course, the only way we'll know for sure is when they fire a nuclear missile into the Pacific and detonate it...which I suspect that they might do at some point since we seem unable to believe that they could have a working delivery system. They do pay close attention to US media (the poor sods) and they note the doubts that pundits put on their program, and then arrange their next test to demonstrate that they can do what we think they can't.

But if nothing is done.... I guess we will have to see how reliable their systems are. I have always thought it is simply a matter of time and luck before a nuke is used somewhere in the world. I agree, it would have been nice if we could have postponed the nuclear exchange a bit longer though. Perhaps we'll get lucky, if the rhetoric can be de-escalated then perhaps we can pull through this. Tillerson seems to know what he's doing, but the Donald then promptly undermines his efforts.

Allowing nutjobs like NK to have them just makes it worse. Imagine in 5 years and the people in NK rise up like the Romanians did, and lil Kim is facing capture and execution. It's not hard to imagine he may decide to push the button, what the hell, I'll take them out with me. One of the reasons why...and I hate to say it, but with North Korea it may well be 'better the devil you know'. Trying to cause his regime to collapse is probably just asking for him to push the button on the way down. As disgusting as the North Korean regime is...we may well have to find a way to live with it, perhaps even support it through food aid...just to avoid that potentially lethal scenario. I don't like it, and no-one should, but I like the thought of mushroom clouds over Asia even less.

It's a shame the US, China, and Russia cannot agree to stop this madness, remove the regime, and liberate the people of NK. :yep:If only it were that simple. Leaving aside the geo-political fallout from that for a moment, any attempt to remove the regime will result in nuclear launches. I would not be surprised if there are one or two Hwasong-12s or 10s pointed at Beijing. North Korea and China are not on good terms right now, and Kim would have no qualms in nuking the nation that betrayed him.
Then there's the liberation of the people of NK, that in itself is an incredibly difficult task. Leaving aside the war itself, which I've already touched on, you've got millions...well...probably a few million less after the war, but nevertheless a large population of people who will require the biggest humanitarian aid mission since the Syrian civil war...heck, probably since the Second World War, most of them will probably try to flee into South Korea or China, which will strain the resources of either nation to breaking point as they try to house hundreds of thousands of refugees. Then there's the difficult economics of trying to glue two nations together. Look at Germany, it's been nearly thirty years since the wall came down and yet you can see the outlines of the old GDR in a social and economic map, North Korea will be a thousand times more difficult than that.

It's a task that could be accomplished, but it would require co-ordination that I don't think has ever been displayed by countries before, as well as a massive humanitarian aid budget that I don't think any nation could afford.

Mr Quatro

09-20-17, 09:04 AM

It's a shame the US, China, and Russia cannot agree to stop this madness, remove the regime, and liberate the people of NK. :yep:

It is a shame and in hindsight if they fail to do anything they will get the blame.

It's almost like they are watching a chess match with limited moves left available. :yep:

Aktungbby

09-20-17, 10:37 AM

It's almost like they are watching a chess match with limited moves left available. :yep: Since KimmyBBY cannot be insane and keep his head in a country like N. Korea:/\\chop:rotfl2: his actions continue to impress me that he is the mineshaft canary for China to test Western RIMPAC resolve by any means especially as the illegal expansion into Tibet and the South China Sea are still #1 on China's longterm economic expansion agenda. Our distracted immediate focus on N. Korea thus serves China's long-term interests. Continued US presence on the Korean peninsula is distinctly antithetical to that geopolitical interest, much as Cuba, and egotistical Castro, was the patsy in the 60's missile crises test of the Monroe Doctrine. Little Kim is acting in China's interests; not vice versa-even if China does not actually 'control' their 'client puppet' who is a third generation hereditary megalomaniac. Like Germany after WWI he is poor, geographically hemmed in, and no place to go Lebensraum-wise. He is an international thief and murderer (his half brother & illicit wire transfer of bitcoin and currency)...we should brook no further aggression based on the lessons already learned in the '40's and move to eradicate the problem permanently. Essentially this is Harry Truman's unfinished police action, an unstable armistice now in need of completion. Trump talks big (at the UN) but has he got the stomach for it??!

Platapus

09-20-17, 02:46 PM

We have almost no control over how KJU acts, but we still have control over how we act.

The most important thing is for the US not to exasperate or escalate this situation. Unfortunately, this means putting a check on our pride and emotions. Just a reminder that we have Trump as PotUS.

We HAVE to be the mature party here. We can not sink to KJU's level.

No one knows what will happen. Perhaps KJU will do something suicidal. I hope not. But it is critical that we don't do anything that can push KJU into doing something stupid.

Matching crazy with crazy is not going to end well.

blackswan40

09-20-17, 03:10 PM

the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962 that was three years before I was born but
JFK and Nikita Khrushchev were both Statesmen that time the Russians blinked first and backed down.
Will KJU do the same or will he up the anti by launching another missile over Japan or firing one nearer to USA
What would Russia or China do if the test Missiles were flying over their Countries would they be sat on the fence so to speak I think not

Aktungbby

09-20-17, 04:41 PM

Little Kim is acting in China's interests; not vice versa-even if China does not actually 'control' their 'client puppet' who is a third generation hereditary megalomaniac.
Matching crazy with crazy is not going to end well. would Russia or China do if the test Missiles were flying over their Countries would they be sat on the fence so to speak I think not http://www.thedailybeast.com/what-happens-if-trump-totally-destroys-north-korea-the-real-fighting-begins (http://www.thedailybeast.com/what-happens-if-trump-totally-destroys-north-korea-the-real-fighting-begins) The North Koreans are indoctrinated to hate Americans, almost all males have military training, and they will have guns. Moreover, the population has been raised on a myth glorifying “partisan warfare.” So what could be more dangerous? As South Korean and American forces move north, the Chinese would probably move south.
China (http://thedailybeast.com/keyword/china)’s military would also want to find nuclear weapons, stocks of chemical and biological agents, and ballistic missiles. Beijing, however, covets something even more important to China: paper. The Chinese would need to secure North Korean archives, which will likely show their complicity in the Kim family’s weapons programs and its horrific crimes. This means China almost certainly would try to secure the capital of Pyongyang and weapons sites before South Korean and American forces did so.
South Korean and American military officers and diplomats have, for decades, tried to discuss with their Chinese counterparts what happens when, for whatever reason, the Kim regime can no longer rule. Maxwell points out that “this can hardly be called coordination.”
Why not? “These engagements,” he said, “are generally one-way with no reciprocal sharing from the Chinese side.” Therefore, Beijing, at least at this time, does not seem to be particularly interested in attempts to “minimize misunderstanding and miscalculation.”
It is often said that Chinese officials do not participate in these discussions for fear of offending their North Korean allies. Another reason, however, may be that Chinese military officers do not want to reveal their plans because they want to control the northern portion of the Korean Peninsula. [Continued US presence on the Korean peninsula is distinctly antithetical to that geopolitical interest...This is about China, not its patsy North Korea. ] Imho: the military annihilation of N Korea will lead to a major sino-American confrontation which the Chinese desperately wish to avoid; preferring a long range time-consuming path to Asiatic geopolitical dominance.

vienna

09-20-17, 06:26 PM

STEED

09-20-17, 06:58 PM

Gen. John Kelly, who is tasked with somehow trying to mitigate the damage done by Trump, reacting to Trump's speech at the UN:

http://cdn-03.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/Viral/article36150653.ece/ba0c3/AUTOCROP/w620h342/bpanews_0f742442-3ad7-4a9f-a23e-c4c6fd0cea6c_1

General Kelly, we feel your pain and you have our sympathies...

<O>

Message received and screw you as kim hits back soon. General Kelly must be getting fed up and wondering what next on the verbal front.

Jimbuna

09-21-17, 06:26 AM

North Korea's top diplomat has called US President Donald Trump's speech to the UN "the sound of a barking dog".

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-41343646

Mr Quatro

09-21-17, 09:05 AM

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-41343646

https://www.facebook.com/HereIsAwesomeWorld/videos/199352913932492/?hc_ref=ARTWy58UPtxObr_dLgee8hkzc9X6FTnTii2qYOvz4t s-eZOnQu10umbkfQFr_WtXMfo&pnref=story

How do you transfer a video from FB to subsim?
anyway this one fits ... can some one do this for me?

Aktungbby

09-21-17, 11:43 AM

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-41343646
IN today's editorials; by Claudia Rosette of the WSJ in it's entirety: Calls by the United Nations Security Council to isolate North Korea haven’t stopped Kim Jong Un from launching missiles over Japan or threatening America and its allies. This week President Trump told the General Assembly that the United States is prepared “to totally destroy North Korea” in the event of an attack. If the international community is serious about isolating the Kim regime, there’s a less drastic option not yet tried: expel North Korea from the U.N.
Since the U.N.’s founding in 1945, no member state has ever been expelled. The U.N. charter does, however, provide for eviction (http://www.un.org/en/sections/un-charter/chapter-ii/index.html): “A Member of the United Nations which has persistently violated the Principles in the present Charter may be expelled from the Organization by the General Assembly upon the recommendation of the Security Council.”
North Korea never met the U.N. membership requirements to begin with. The charter says membership is open only to “peace-loving states” that promote “respect for human rights and for fundamental freedoms.” North Korea was admitted in tandem with South Korea on Sept. 17, 1991. At the time, with the Soviet Union in the process of collapse, the rationalization was that finally bringing North Korea into the U.N. fold might induce it to give up its brutal and predatory ways.

Instead, the legitimacy and perquisites conferred by U.N. membership might have helped the regime survive. Expelling North Korea now could undermine Mr. Kim domestically. His regime would lose the international respect that accompanies a U.N. seat. North Korean diplomats would be forced to give up access to lavishly appointed U.N. offices and soirees in New York, Rome and Vienna. The U.S. and its allies pay most of the tab for these amenities, while Pyongyang avails itself of opportunities for spying, money laundering and illicit procurement.
From the start North Korea was intent on causing trouble for the U.N. As early as 1993 the Security Council was expressing (https://undocs.org/S/RES/825(1993))“concern” that Pyongyang was out of compliance with U.N. nuclear safeguards. North Korea is now in violation of nine Security Council resolutions, after developing intercontinental ballistic missiles and carrying out six nuclear tests.
As for human rights, a special U.N. Commission of Inquiry concluded in 2014 that “the gravity, scale and nature of the violations committed by the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea reveal a state that does not have any parallel in the contemporary world.”
A bid to toss North Korea out of the U.N. would need strong U.S. leadership, and it could fail. China and Russia could block it with their Security Council vetoes. The despot-packed General Assembly, wary of setting a precedent, could balk.
It’s still worth a try. Even failure would better illuminate the perils of relying on a U.N. that values North Korea’s company above its own charter. Success could help undercut the Kim regime, and confer a measure of badly needed redemption on the U.N. itself.

Platapus

09-21-17, 03:34 PM

And what exactly would kicking North Korea out of the UN accomplish?

STEED

09-21-17, 04:55 PM

And what exactly would kicking North Korea out of the UN accomplish?

Nothing.

Oberon

09-21-17, 06:53 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lpohnP4bOi0

Oberon

09-21-17, 08:36 PM

Just going to put this here to refer back to in the (probably not too distant) future.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5orHjD5FWc8

Catfish

09-22-17, 03:25 AM

It seems Kim did not eat enough snickers recently.

(Referring to #1118 )
(http://www.subsim.com/radioroom/showpost.php?p=2514008&postcount=1118)

vienna

09-22-17, 03:53 AM

Message received and screw you as kim hits back soon. General Kelly must be getting fed up and wondering what next on the verbal front.

https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-GC1tIPIVViw/WcH8F7Bw1GI/AAAAAAAAXv8/ewxEHt1w7L4UkBLRmvVDOhUFvh4xNDpIwCLcBGAs/s640/Donald%2BTrump%252BUnited%2BNations%252BUN%252BSpe ech%252BRocket%2BMan%252BTotally%2BDestroy%2BNorth %2BKorea%252BNikki%2BHaley%252BSurprise%252BBody%2 BLanguage%252BExpert%252BEmotional%2BIntelligence% 252BNonverbal%252BCommunication%252BSpeaker%252BKe ynote%252BConsultant%252BLos%2BAngeles%252BLas%2BV egas%252BCalifornia%252BNYC%252BOrlando.png

It would seem General Kelly was not the only Trump staffer to find Trump's UN Speech less than satisfactory: US UN Ambassador Nikki Kelly was seen as in the above photo, arms crossed and not very pleased. I think any man who has been married and has seen that posture and that look on a spouse knows it bodes no well; I had one ex who specialized in that pose and even added a bit of impatient foot-tapping as an audible warning, something like the rattle of a rattlesnake... :D

<O>

u crank

09-22-17, 05:40 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QBP9RtcNROc

Gen. John Kelly, who is tasked with somehow trying to mitigate the damage done by Trump, reacting to Trump's speech at the UN:

http://cdn-03.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/Viral/article36150653.ece/ba0c3/AUTOCROP/w620h342/bpanews_0f742442-3ad7-4a9f-a23e-c4c6fd0cea6c_1
General Kelly, we feel your pain and you have our sympathies...
<O>

The idea that the President's Chief of Staff did not read Trump's speech before he gave it at the UN seems hard to believe....but I guess any thing is possible. :O:

Jimbuna

09-22-17, 06:14 AM

https://www.facebook.com/HereIsAwesomeWorld/videos/199352913932492/?hc_ref=ARTWy58UPtxObr_dLgee8hkzc9X6FTnTii2qYOvz4t s-eZOnQu10umbkfQFr_WtXMfo&pnref=story

How do you transfer a video from FB to subsim?
anyway this one fits ... can some one do this for me?

Go to the FB page containing the video and replace the www in the address bar with the letter m.

It will then open as a normal video.

Play the video for a few seconds then pause it.

Right click and choose the save video as then save it to your computer.

Below is a short tutorial.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v8nGiH0XCbY

Jimbuna

09-22-17, 06:15 AM

Kim Jong-un has said remarks by "deranged" US President Donald Trump have convinced him he is right to develop weapons for North Korea.
In an unprecedented personal statement, Mr Kim said Mr Trump would "pay dearly" for a UN speech where he threatened to "totally destroy" the North if the US was forced to defend itself.
Mr Trump responded that the "madman... will be tested like never before".

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-41356836

Sticks and stones.

Catfish

09-22-17, 07:55 AM

Put them both in a walled circus, and give them sticks and stones.
Lot of money, resources and lives spared.

Rockstar

09-22-17, 07:57 AM

And what exactly would kicking North Korea out of the UN accomplish?

That has been the question asked anytime the U.N. involves themselves in international affairs.

Jimbuna

09-22-17, 08:15 AM

I think it would be interesting if the UN security council changed its format to a majority vote but I can never see that happening, too much would actually get done for a change.

Eichhörnchen

09-22-17, 08:28 AM

None of this is going to matter tomorrow, after that planet hits. What time's that supposed to happen... I want to get some nibbles in? :)

Rockstar

09-22-17, 08:37 AM

Just going to put this here to refer back to in the (probably not too distant) future.

Why, are you trying to say nobody has a right to complain if Kim conducts a nuclear weapon test in the Pacific, because Great Britain conducted underwater tests on Kiritimati and above ground bursts in Australia in the 1960's? Or are you saying its just the United States that doesn't have any right to complain?

In case you don't know. The Test Ban Treaty of 1963 prohibits nuclear weapons tests "or any other nuclear explosion" in the atmosphere, in outer space, and under water. While not banning tests underground, the Treaty does prohibit nuclear explosions in this environment if they cause "radioactive debris to be present outside the territorial limits of the State under whose jurisdiction or control" the explosions were conducted. In accepting limitations on testing, the nuclear powers accepted as a common goal "an end to the contamination of man's environment by radioactive substances."

Though not a signatory to this treaty I very seriously doubt Fatboy would think to defy it with an nuclear missile test on some atoll like Christmas Island, or Novaya Zemlya.

Oberon

09-22-17, 09:25 AM

Though not a signatory to this treaty I very seriously doubt Fatboy would think to defy it with an nuclear missile test on some atoll like Christmas Island, or Novaya Zemlya.

Nah, he won't test it on an atoll.

It'll be in the middle of the ocean somewhere. He's got plenty of Pacific to choose from. If he's going to be considerate he might fire an SLBM from the east side of Japan, save going over them...but I don't think that being considerate to the Japanese is high on his list of priorities right now, so it'll probably be a Hwasong-14 straight over Japan and into the Pacific.

There's sod all anyone can do about it really, if you attack the launch site then it's war, Japan can't intercept it in mid course and depending on where they shoot it at it'll be out of range of the GMD in Alaska, and since we won't know where it's coming down there's no way to put an AEGIS in place to intercept it. I mean, if he's feeling really frisky he might do it near Guam in which case the US can shoot it down, but I doubt he'd go that far.

Juche-bird could be the next big thing, and then we'll see what the Dotard does and says in return.

On the up side though, this is doing wonders for Abes attempts to shred Article Nine. I wonder if they'll build a modern Yamato? That would be cool. :up:

https://img00.deviantart.net/a01c/i/2014/093/5/1/space_battleship_yamato_2199_yamato_vs_planet_bomb _by_sparduck117-d7cxa9u.jpg

Rockstar

09-22-17, 09:52 AM

Aktungbby

09-22-17, 10:57 AM

And what exactly would kicking North Korea out of the UN accomplish?
He would finally surmise that nobody likes him!:yeah:
Put them both in a walled circus, and give them sticks and stones.

https://www.usnews.com/dims4/USNEWS/0e278c7/2147483647/resize/1200x%3E/format/png/quality/85/?url=%2Fcmsmedia%2F9d%2F44%2F28e063af4d209eb59c880 d3647f4%2F20170418edshe-b.tif AHEM! I thought I already covered that topic! :D :/\\!!

Platapus

09-22-17, 11:01 AM

I think it would be interesting if the UN security council changed its format to a majority vote but I can never see that happening, too much would actually get done for a change.

I agree. The single veto rule should go but there is no way any of the big 5 would ever agree to that.

Garion

09-22-17, 11:12 AM

https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-GC1tIPIVViw/WcH8F7Bw1GI/AAAAAAAAXv8/ewxEHt1w7L4UkBLRmvVDOhUFvh4xNDpIwCLcBGAs/s640/Donald%2BTrump%252BUnited%2BNations%252BUN%252BSpe ech%252BRocket%2BMan%252BTotally%2BDestroy%2BNorth %2BKorea%252BNikki%2BHaley%252BSurprise%252BBody%2 BLanguage%252BExpert%252BEmotional%2BIntelligence% 252BNonverbal%252BCommunication%252BSpeaker%252BKe ynote%252BConsultant%252BLos%2BAngeles%252BLas%2BV egas%252BCalifornia%252BNYC%252BOrlando.png

It would seem General Kelly was not the only Trump staffer to find Trump's UN Speech less than satisfactory: US UN Ambassador Nikki Kelly was seen as in the above photo, arms crossed and not very pleased. I think any man who has been married and has seen that posture and that look on a spouse knows it bodes no well; I had one ex who specialized in that pose and even added a bit of impatient foot-tapping as an audible warning, something like the rattle of a rattlesnake... :D

<O>

It's the "Pointy Finger" Thats the point of no return..:D

Cheers
Gary

mapuc

09-22-17, 11:17 AM

Some more thoughts about NK's talk about testing a nuke somewhere in the Pacific at some level.

What will the response be from our Western leader, from UN, from China and Russia ?

I can imagine all from more condemnation to more sanction to a little military strike on NK. And I would not be surprised if it was China who did this.

Just some thoughts about todays message from NK.

Markus

Oberon

09-22-17, 12:54 PM

We learn and we move on. Its been said not to forget the past so we don't repeat our mistakes. Not to look back on it and use it as an excuse to do nothing because. Nations have every right say what he is doing is wrong and condemn his actions especially if he pops off a nuclear tipped test in the Pacific.

Maybe it will be war maybe it wont. Right now it seems too me that its not going any further than just a petty war of words.

Believe me, I won't be applauding the DPRK, I don't condone the idea...but I don't think that it's a cassus belli either. Condemning is fine, even more sanctions is fine too, if somewhat counter-productive, but starting a war over this...especially a nuclear war...

Well, I hope that you're right and it'll just stay this petty war of words (which, I must say with 'dotard' KJU is winning so far), but this just seems to be constantly escalating, and escalating towards something. Hopefully calmer heads will prevail in the end, but what I won't do is say that the DPRK 'is not or cannot do something' because every time that happens they will do it.
They cannot build an ICBM - ICBM built and launched
They cannot build an H bomb - H bomb built and tested
They cannot build an SLBM - SLBM built and launched

If they say that they might launch an ICBM with a nuclear warhead on it into the Pacific...they might well do exactly that. The biggest question, as mapuc puts it, is what the rest of Asia will do after that. After they've gone to brown alert that is.

Platapus

09-22-17, 12:58 PM

KJU's Generals are probably advising him of how bad a decision this testing would be. I wonder how long it will take, if Kim's actions are a threat to North Korea, before the military does some "restaffing"?

Rockstar

09-22-17, 01:44 PM

Believe me, I won't be applauding the DPRK, I don't condone the idea...but I don't think that it's a cassus belli either. Condemning is fine, even more sanctions is fine too, if somewhat counter-productive, but starting a war over this...especially a nuclear war...

Well, I hope that you're right and it'll just stay this petty war of words (which, I must say with 'dotard' KJU is winning so far), but this just seems to be constantly escalating, and escalating towards something. Hopefully calmer heads will prevail in the end, but what I won't do is say that the DPRK 'is not or cannot do something' because every time that happens they will do it.
They cannot build an ICBM - ICBM built and launched
They cannot build an H bomb - H bomb built and tested
They cannot build an SLBM - SLBM built and launched

If they say that they might launch an ICBM with a nuclear warhead on it into the Pacific...they might well do exactly that. The biggest question, as mapuc puts it, is what the rest of Asia will do after that. After they've gone to brown alert that is.

Exactly. what will we do? That's the $64 dollar question. The only one I see heading towards a nuclear war at top speed is that fatman in N.K. I just hope our response is more than just telling ourselves we cant do anything about it because we did the same thing in the sixties.

u crank

09-22-17, 01:45 PM

I wonder how long it will take, if Kim's actions are a threat to North Korea, before the military does some "restaffing"?

There you go. I think that day is coming soon if the posturing continues. These Generals have to be thinking about their own lives and talking amongst themselves.

mapuc

09-22-17, 01:50 PM

Going to be little US-politics in this discussion

If Trump had lost the election the crisis we are witness to now, would not have come so far.

Saw this on FB few days ago - Trump is the one to blame.

This made me think-Not if Trump is to blame or not, but what would Clinton have done if NK had done the same thing, Testing its nukes, ICBM and so on ?

I know it's nothing but speculation.

Markus

Platapus

09-22-17, 02:02 PM

This situation has been going on before Trump even thought about running.

Trumps is not making the situation better, but is hardly the cause.

It is a good thought exercise on what would Hillary have done. Probably not much different than what Trump did, but would have worded it differently.

She is quite hawkish and perhaps would be concerned with "proving" herself... kinda like what Trump is doing.

Mr Quatro

09-22-17, 02:33 PM

Am I the only one that can see that God is on both sides ... one side is stubborn in order to cause the other side to act ...
to act wisely and take out this fool before he can do real damage to the world we live in. :o

That's right cause and effect are now in play on your media news screen every night. You don't have to agree ...
just wait and see that Rocket man is cruising for a bruising. :yep:

blackswan40

09-22-17, 02:52 PM

Mr Quatro thank god we get a balanced view point from you

1. if we cant can the can

2. send rocket man some 48 crash cruise missiles

3. down his devil gate drive

vienna

09-22-17, 04:17 PM

The idea that the President's Chief of Staff did not read Trump's speech before he gave it at the UN seems hard to believe....but I guess any thing is possible. :O:

Oh, I am sure the CoS does read the texts of the speeches; the problem is having someone who finds it difficult to adhere to the agreed upon text and who willy-nilly throws in comments he thinks makes him look "presidential" while only making the US look foolish. Kelly and Haley, along with others, are left to deal with the Bandini Barrage's messes. I would very much dislike being in their positions...

It's the "Pointy Finger" Thats the point of no return..:D

...soon followed by the strategic first strike launch of culinary accessories... :D

<O>

Oberon

09-22-17, 04:22 PM

to act wisely and take out this fool before he can do real damage to the world we live in.

https://i.imgur.com/UlqExJg.jpg?1

Platapus

09-22-17, 04:59 PM

Am I the only one that can see that God is on both sides ... one side is stubborn in order to cause the other side to act ...
to act wisely and take out this fool before he can do real damage to the world we live in. :o

I don't think that is an appropriate thing to say about our President.

Mr Quatro

09-22-17, 05:24 PM

https://i.imgur.com/UlqExJg.jpg?1

Wow! Am I reading that right? Oberon with a third party thumbs up :up:

STEED

09-22-17, 05:54 PM

Russia: Trump and Kim are like 'children in a kindergarten'http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-41369329

Rockstar

09-22-17, 06:41 PM

In the immortal words of Neville Chamberlain: "Go home and get a nice quiet sleep." :D

Which brings me to the conclusion that no matter how patient, promising, reserved, diplomatic and politically well spoken, intentioned or liked a leader may be. Well over 60 million people still died.

STEED

09-23-17, 05:17 AM

Trump: 'Rocket Man' Kim Jong Un should have been handled years ago

The US President accuses Barack Obama and his administration of failing to deal with the North Korea threat years ago.http://news.sky.com/story/trump-rocket-man-kim-jong-un-should-have-been-handled-years-ago-11048817

Well you could go down that path but how far back do you go playing the blame game. :hmmm:

Catfish

09-23-17, 05:22 AM

"This is a different time. This shouldn't be handled now, but I'm going to handle it, because we have to handle it."

#handlehandlehandlehandle
#blameClintonBlameObamablameblameblame

STEED

09-23-17, 06:19 AM

Stand by this is going to rattle Trump's cage.

Iran tests missile despite Trump pressure

Iran says it has successfully tested a new-medium range missile, in defiance of US President Donald Trump.
The launch of the Khoramshahr missile, which has a range of 2,000 km (1,242 miles), was shown on state TV. It is unclear when the test took place.http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-41371309

Jimbuna

09-23-17, 07:12 AM

Iran have decided to jump on the bandwagon.

I hope Trump seeks sound advice.

Platapus

09-23-17, 09:52 AM

Well, since Iran testing this missile does not violate any treaty, there's not much we can do about it.

Once you brand a nation as part of an "axis of evil" they probably don't care too much if you like or dislike what they do.

Aktungbby

09-23-17, 09:58 AM

Little Kim is acting in China's interests; Essentially this is Harry Truman's unfinished police action, an unstable armistice now in need of completion. Trump talks big (at the UN) but has he got the stomach for it??!

Well you could go down that path but how far back do you go playing the blame game. :hmmm:
1952?:hmmm:

Aktungbby

09-23-17, 12:33 PM

Today's WSJ: You can’t hurt this economy with sanctions,” said Ding Jiansheng, a Chinese coal trader who lives in Pyongyang and was enjoying a musical performance by the waitresses at a bustling new Pyongyang pizza restaurant on the banks of the Taedong River. He said his coal business was thriving despite U.N. sanctions designed to stop coal sales to North Korea, though he declined to say how.
The Journal also spoke with Ri Song Ho, who directs the Golden Cup Trading Co. factory, which produces some 700 different snacks, sodas, bread and sweets, including a cake featuring a North Korean rocket ready for launch. He said his experience during the lean years of the 1990s inspired him to produce more food to offset the sanctions....
His conversation moved quickly from making snacks to nuclear deterrence. He was convinced that the threat of war would fade as the U.S. came to accept North Korea’s nuclear power as a fact of life.
“We now have all these nuclear weapons to defend us. I believe in a few days there will be news that will mean that the U.S. will not attack us, but I can’t say what that is,” Mr. Ri said. So much for 'sanctions'.....:hmmm: the new science library>https://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/BN-VE765_pyongy_M_20170920015732.jpg

Platapus

09-23-17, 01:26 PM

"He was convinced that the threat of war would fade as the U.S. came to accept North Korea’s nuclear power as a fact of life.
“We now have all these nuclear weapons to defend us. I believe in a few days there will be news that will mean that the U.S. will not attack us"

Wise words representing a different viewpoint.

mapuc

09-23-17, 01:28 PM

And I was about to write BREAKING

Because the title on a Danish news papers FB-page was breaking

and with the text "The United States sends bombers against North Korea"

When I clicked on the link it wasn't that dramatic as one would expect.

Here is what it was written

"The United States has sent bombers across the international airspace east of North Korea on Saturday to demonstrate their seriousness and strength."

I was like-What have Trump decided to bomb NK, when I read the headlines.

Markus

Oberon

09-23-17, 01:50 PM

Flying bombers close to DPRK airspace in a time of heightened tensions, I'm sure that there's absolutely no possibilities of mistakes being made whatsoever.

Sure wouldn't want to be a merchant in the Pacific right now... :haha:

Platapus

09-23-17, 02:40 PM

If launching test missiles in international space is a provocation, what is sending bombers to a border region??

Is this one of those "mom, he did it first!" things?

It is like a little brother "I'm not touching you...does this bother you? I'm not touching you"

Annoying when it is your little brother, scary when it is nations

mapuc

09-23-17, 03:46 PM

Some hours ago I heard this in the news

(from my memory and translate)

"North Korea's Foreign Minister at UN: Rockets on American Mainland 'inevitable'

Then I was thinking:

Now what will Trump's twitter say, after this statement from the North Korean Minister ?

Markus

Rockstar

09-23-17, 10:13 PM

I saw that and almost immediately the movie Beneath the Planet of The Apes pops into my mind

Today's WSJ: So much for 'sanctions'.....:hmmm: the new science library>https://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/BN-VE765_pyongy_M_20170920015732.jpg

Aktungbby

09-24-17, 12:12 AM

I saw that and almost immediately the movie Beneath the Planet of The Apes pops into my mind

http://catholicphilly.com/media-files/2017/07/apes-1300x588.jpgI'll be the dystopian primate on the Mossburg pump when the nuclear winter hits!:yep:

Buddahaid

09-24-17, 01:11 AM

The trench gun.

Reece

09-24-17, 01:37 AM

Hey if those apes are male where are their . . .err parts?:hmmm:

Rhodes

09-24-17, 04:51 AM

Hey if those apes are male where are their . . .err parts?:hmmm:
You never bath in cold water? Don't you know what happens to the . . .err parts in the cold?:03::D

vienna

09-24-17, 05:16 AM

Um... I do believe Steed's problem with extreme cold and nether regions has been covered in another thread... :D

<O>

Jimbuna

09-24-17, 05:40 AM

Um... I do believe Steed's problem with extreme cold and nether regions has been covered in another thread... :D

<O>

Many times over....poor guy.

Delgard

09-24-17, 09:21 AM

I was wondering if the U.S. will see a missile go "generally" towards a U.S. State or possession and determine it a threat and shoot it down.

Where will it lead, though?

Came up in a discussion, thought to bring it here.

STEED

09-24-17, 09:37 AM

Many times over....poor guy.

I didn't know you cared jim.

A flagon of beer for jim.

Aktungbby

09-24-17, 09:51 AM

You never bath in cold water? Don't you know what happens to the . . .err parts in the cold?:03::D

From which we get the naval expression; 'shrivel me timber'??!!:O:

Mr Quatro

09-24-17, 10:15 AM

From which we get the naval expression; 'shrivel me timber'??!!:O:

This conversation has definitely gone south :o:o

Aktungbby

09-24-17, 10:23 AM

Well let's hope the North Koreans don't go South!:o (desperately getting thread back on track!)

Platapus

09-24-17, 10:28 AM

Well a Gorilla's erect penis is 3-6 cm (>1" <3")

So I am feeling pretty good. :D

Wait a minute, don't gorilla's also have big hands? Yuge in fact?? :hmmm:

Delgard

09-24-17, 11:25 AM

Aktungbby

09-24-17, 11:36 AM

So I am feeling pretty good....Yuge in fact :D

:hmmm: Well stay away from the Chimpanzee/Bonobo cage then!:wah: I suspect Little Kim doesn't take it as an insult when ' the Donald' calls him...Rocketman!https://i.amz.mshcdn.com/zgWo3fK1Ry_9KQw0ZOdpXBADpt4=/fit-in/1200x9600/https%3A%2F%2Fblueprint-api-production.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fuploads%2Fcard%2Fima ge%2F91817%2FKim_Jong_Un_looney_tunes.jpg(still desperately trying to get thread back on track)

Oberon

09-24-17, 11:44 AM

They would be slaughtered going south. No one would support their violation of the UN supported ceasefire. They might get a fair distance, but still it would lead to the down fall of Kim Jung Un. They know it, too. They ARE in very good defensive positions which prevents the South from going north...on the ground.

Agreed, they'd be lucky to make it to Seoul, even in the three weeks it would take to get the American heavy gear into position. The ROK can hold its own, and the entire countryside south of the DMZ is wired for defence.

mapuc

09-24-17, 12:30 PM

In my last comment #605

I was wondering what Trumps Twitter will say after this North Korean Ministers statement

Here it is
Trump on Twitter:

"Just heard Foreign Minister of North Korea speak at U.N. If he echoes thoughts of Little Rocket Man, they won't be around much longer!"

As long as they do nothing than throw words against each other, it's OK.

Markus

Platapus

09-24-17, 12:53 PM

Agreed, they'd be lucky to make it to Seoul, even in the three weeks it would take to get the American heavy gear into position. The ROK can hold its own, and the entire countryside south of the DMZ is wired for defence.

When I was stationed in South Korea, we kinda thought our primary job was to prevent the South from invading the North.

Rockstar

09-24-17, 02:42 PM

ummm this

sheesh

http://cdn.collider.com/wp-content/uploads/beneath-the-planet-of-the-apes-bomb-600x352.jpg

Oberon

09-24-17, 04:06 PM

ummm this

sheesh

http://cdn.collider.com/wp-content/uploads/beneath-the-planet-of-the-apes-bomb-600x352.jpg

Ah, someone has found the basement of Trump tower then.

STEED

09-24-17, 04:10 PM

The Holy Bomb is the only defense against those dirty stinking North Korean apes. :03:

mapuc

09-24-17, 04:38 PM

Was it a real threat was it declaration of war in disguise or was it a hollow thread the North Korean Foreign Minister said in his Statement at the UN ?

Why I ask this is because I have here and there been reading

This means war North Korea has declared USA war, read what this Minister said in UN
Or
They are threating USA and they mean business

I have in all these comment said-It can also be a hollow Threat, it can also be real. I don't know how a Korean think and how they function mentally.

Markus

Rockstar

09-24-17, 05:37 PM

Ah, someone has found the basement of Trump tower then.

:har:

Platapus

09-24-17, 05:39 PM

Both sides are still just talking about what they would do if the other side attacks.

But if emotions get out of hand

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0-JA1ffd5Ms

Buddahaid

09-24-17, 06:40 PM

Trump has never learned, and never will learn, the art of silence.

mapuc

09-25-17, 11:41 AM

NK has taken it one step further.

According to the Swedish Newspaper aftonbladet.se

NK has threaten to shoot down every bomberplane that flies near the North Korean border.

It was the North Korean Foreign Minister who said this to the press outside his Hotel in New York.

Markus

Delgard

09-25-17, 12:17 PM

Saying something is not the same as doing something. KJU has said he will level America...woop-de-doo.

But, as was said, emotions can get out of hand for the weaker one. Both are looking for a legitimate excuse. I know the short view will be grim, but, take a look at the long view. I am not going to get into a dissertation about it, but there is a lot to view.

Now, what about Iran? Are/will they be the same? I was on the ground in the Iran/Iraq war; pretty savage on the Iranian side. I earned my shoulder patch quite a few times. Things can get messy in Korea or Iran, or Venezuela in 10 years.

Jimbuna

09-25-17, 12:59 PM

Just read this Twitter message from Trump and am simply wonering which 'they' he is referring to :hmmm:

Just heard Foreign Minister of North Korea speak at U.N. If he echoes thoughts of Little Rocket Man, they won't be around much longer!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-41391978

STEED

09-25-17, 01:08 PM

So NK has said America has declared war on them, just one question when was this?

What a load of rubbish.

North Korea vows to shoot down US planes and says Trump 'declared war'

"The whole world should clearly remember it was the US who first declared war," says North Korea's foreign minister.
http://news.sky.com/story/trump-declared-war-says-north-korea-claiming-right-to-shoot-down-us-planes-11053222

mapuc

09-25-17, 01:39 PM

The response from USA didn't take long.

This time it was Pentagon who wrote this on Twitter

""If North Korea does not stop their provocations, we will (Pentagon) Give the President various options to deal with North Korea, told spokesman for Pentagon Colonel Robert Manning.

(Not exact phrase, ´cause I can't find the Twitter from Pentagon)

So the first kid raised his voice and then the other boy did the same. I hope, I want to hope it stay that way-Yelling at each other. What I fear is that one of these two kids take a stone and throw it at the other boy.

Markus

Oberon

09-25-17, 01:56 PM

So NK has said America has declared war on them, just one question when was this?

27th June 1950

STEED

09-25-17, 02:09 PM

27th June 1950

Well I came across this..

The U.S. Congress never declared war, thereby establishing a precedent.

On June 25, 1950, North Korea launched a full-scale invasion of the South after receiving the go-ahead from Soviet dictator Joseph Stalin. Until that point, the United States appeared disinclined to intervene. The year before it had removed its last remaining troops from Korea, and that January U.S. Secretary of State Dean Acheson had given a speech in which he excluded Korea from America’s defense perimeter. Nonetheless, the United States got involved in the Korean War almost immediately. On June 27, as North Korean troops reached the outskirts of Seoul, the South Korean capital, U.S. President Harry S. Truman ordered naval and air forces into action. Then, three days later, he approved the use of ground troops. Though the Constitution gives Congress the power to declare war, it did not do so in this case. “If a burglar breaks into your house, you can shoot him without going down to the police station and getting permission,” Senator Tom Connally told Truman when asked if Congressional approval was necessary. As a result, Congress has not formally declared war since World War II.
http://www.history.com/news/8-things-you-should-know-about-the-korean-war

Oberon

09-25-17, 03:09 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B3RJUMm-hd0

:haha:

Mr Quatro

09-25-17, 03:12 PM

On June 25, 1950, North Korea launched a full-scale invasion of the South after receiving the go-ahead from Soviet dictator Joseph Stalin.

Thanks Steed I didn't know that :up:

This is another reason why we don't get along with Russia even today, uh?

Rockstar

09-25-17, 03:37 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B3RJUMm-hd0

:haha:

Oh I for one dont see Nork government as much of a threat either. The threat is them towards there own. I just think were done playing games. They are either going to pull the trigger or crumble. Either way they lose.

Platapus

09-25-17, 04:51 PM

Believe me, with a person like Trump in office, the last thing we need is a formal declaration of war.

Aktungbby

09-25-17, 04:59 PM

Believe me, with a person like Trump in office, the last thing we need is a formal declaration of war.

That is because having trump in office IS a formal declaration of war!https://media.giphy.com/media/3o7bukPscyIznT99QY/giphy.gif

STEED

09-25-17, 05:11 PM

^ You got me going there, where have I oh yes...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gDKdHuyQpHY

Platapus

09-25-17, 05:25 PM

From https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles/north-korea-says-u-s-declared-war-warns-it-could-shoot-down-u-s-bombers-idUSKCN1C026A

Concerning our bomber flights

“That operation was conducted in international airspace, over international waters, so we have the right to fly, sail and operate where legally permissible around the globe,” Pentagon spokesman Colonel Robert Manning said on Monday.

So I guess then North Korea operating/testing in international air/sea space is OK. Right?

mapuc

09-25-17, 05:58 PM

Delgard

09-25-17, 06:39 PM

So long as KJU is leading, it will not be conventional. On day one, NK infiltrators will release gas at sea ports, air ports, military bases and military facilities that support the fight or support the arrival of U.S. supplies/troops. The chemicals will be persistent in that they won't dissipate very quickly.

If any targets are not hit, due to defenses, missiles will be used to hit the target.

This all being against South Korea. But, what if the "fight" is just against the U.S., then the issue changes. North Korea knows that an offensive attack on SK is not really beneficial.

The danger is more likely to be Guam with a nuke, if they can do it. That will tell everyone in the region, China, Russia, Japan, and SK that they WILL do the same if attacked. The target being an isolated U.S. base does not affect any other country.

The reason I say Guam is that it is an isolated U.S. military facility. Our bases in Japan are a consideration next. A small warhead with an airburst would lessen the fallout, but still have the EMP effect.

I assume that the Japanese, South Koreans, and Americans are working feverishly to develop ways to stop the various types of missiles that NK has.

Just thinking. I don't think KJU will play war nicely. I wouldn't.

Finally, I am off to play CW. :)

Oberon

09-25-17, 08:12 PM

Wonder how I shall explain this.

I truly hope all this will end in a diplomatically agreement.

Should it however turn into a war I would if the war stay conventional throughout the whole conflict not be worried.

I know USA would as far as possible try to avoid civilians.

When it comes to NK I fear they will start sending lots and lots of shells towards the Capital of SK. or even worse, when they are pressed up in a corner and see no other way than sending what they have of ICBM and other missiles against SK, JP, USA and Guam.

It would be over in about 2-3 weeks if stay conventional or less than that. If it turn into something more terrible thing the war will be very short.

Markus

The DPRK has no interest in letting the US stomp it into the dirt by playing to the Americans strength. They will go special weapons first, because if they sit around and wait, their weapons will be picked off one by one until there's nothing left for them to use and their one ace is gone.
No, I can see two battle tactics for them to use.

1) They launch a nuclear strike on US and South Korean airfields across South Korea, Japan and Guam. Ports are also hit but the primary targets are airfields. There is the risk of Seoul getting hit as well, especially as the ROK would likely start shooting across the DMZ as the Scuds come in, so the DPRK will fire back.
The DPRK will then remind the US that it still has an ICBM capability, and if the US does not accept their offer of an immediate ceasefire and negotiated settlement of the conflict then they will launch their ICBMs against the American mainland. The US will then have to take the decision to risk the nuclear destruction of its cities or to honour its commitments to Japan and South Korea. The classic 'Paris for Washington' dilemma which inspired Charles De Gaulle to develop Frances own nuclear deterrent.

2) They go all in straight off the bat. ICBMs and all. The rapid breakdown of order in such a scenario means that it would be difficult to bring the war to a close, particularly as all efforts will be being made to kill Kim Jong-un, who is best placed to end any North Korean military actions (see the film 'By Dawns Early Light' for why decapitation strikes on the enemy military in war-time can extend a war rather than end it). This may result in the US having to slog its way to Pyongyang, and perhaps onward to the Yalu providing China does not get involved. The final death toll will be very high*.

I don't think we're there yet. I think there's more escalation to go before war becomes likely. The next missile test will give us an idea of their plans, it will, by my guesswork, either be Juche-bird (a live nuclear warhead detonation in international Pacific waters) or the Guam mission (a non-nuclear bracketing of Guam), or potentially the prelude to Guam which would entail a salvo firing of Hwasong-12s on a similar trajectory to the last test.

We'll see. With both sides committed to escalation though, at some point a war becomes extremely likely unless one side backs down, but I think it would cost too much face for either side to do this. So that's fun.

*And the award for understatement of the year for 2017 goes to this sentence.

Mr Quatro

09-25-17, 08:54 PM

Rockstar

09-25-17, 10:05 PM

The idea of firing a nuclear tipped warhead over another sovereign nation does raise some concerns or at least it should. But probably wont because it isn't happening to anyone one of us.

Rockstar

09-25-17, 10:07 PM

The DPRK has no interest in letting the US stomp it into the dirt by playing to the Americans strength. They will go special weapons first, because if they sit around and wait, their weapons will be picked off one by one until there's nothing left for them to use and their one ace is gone.
No, I can see two battle tactics for them to use.

1) They launch a nuclear strike on US and South Korean airfields across South Korea, Japan and Guam. Ports are also hit but the primary targets are airfields. There is the risk of Seoul getting hit as well, especially as the ROK would likely start shooting across the DMZ as the Scuds come in, so the DPRK will fire back.
The DPRK will then remind the US that it still has an ICBM capability, and if the US does not accept their offer of an immediate ceasefire and negotiated settlement of the conflict then they will launch their ICBMs against the American mainland. The US will then have to take the decision to risk the nuclear destruction of its cities or to honour its commitments to Japan and South Korea. The classic 'Paris for Washington' dilemma which inspired Charles De Gaulle to develop Frances own nuclear deterrent.

2) They go all in straight off the bat. ICBMs and all. The rapid breakdown of order in such a scenario means that it would be difficult to bring the war to a close, particularly as all efforts will be being made to kill Kim Jong-un, who is best placed to end any North Korean military actions (see the film 'By Dawns Early Light' for why decapitation strikes on the enemy military in war-time can extend a war rather than end it). This may result in the US having to slog its way to Pyongyang, and perhaps onward to the Yalu providing China does not get involved. The final death toll will be very high*.

I don't think we're there yet. I think there's more escalation to go before war becomes likely. The next missile test will give us an idea of their plans, it will, by my guesswork, either be Juche-bird (a live nuclear warhead detonation in international Pacific waters) or the Guam mission (a non-nuclear bracketing of Guam), or potentially the prelude to Guam which would entail a salvo firing of Hwasong-12s on a similar trajectory to the last test.

We'll see. With both sides committed to escalation though, at some point a war becomes extremely likely unless one side backs down, but I think it would cost too much face for either side to do this. So that's fun.

*And the award for understatement of the year for 2017 goes to this sentence.

That's one heckuva imagination you have there

Oberon

09-25-17, 10:16 PM

That's one heckuva imagination you have there

What would you do if you were Kim? Let the US smash you into the dirt? :hmmm:

So that means that NK can send a diesel submarine to the Gulf of Mexico and refuel it with a NK freighter visiting Cuba that is really a submarine tender in disguise ... come on man :hmmm:

There's no law against it, they could even send their SSB.

You could bet that it wouldn't be alone though. :haha:

Jimbuna

09-26-17, 05:09 AM

I think one could also predict it would be a one-way suicide mission.

Delgard

09-26-17, 08:16 AM

For NK infiltrators. But that is an acceptable cost for their mental conditioning. They will do their job.

Ammo, bombs, military equipment just can't be flown in. Ports will be contaminated also.

Mr Quatro

09-26-17, 11:12 AM

I think one could also predict it would be a one-way suicide mission.

The leader of NK is their god ... they would die for him which is why we should be more concerned (which I'm sure we are) about sleeper cells inside the USA that could cause a huge problem if they so desired.

Found this interesting information on ABC this morning: http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/experts-nkorea-lacks-ability-intent-attack-us-planes-50096380

Moon Seong Mook, a former South Korean military official and current senior analyst for the Seoul-based Korea Research Institute for National Strategy, said it's highly unlikely North Korea has the real-world capability to match Ri's words. North Korea's aging MiG fighters won't stance a chance against much more powerful U.S. fighters escorting long-range bombers. And while North Korea touted in May that it's ready to deploy new surface-to-air missiles that analysts say could potentially hit targets as far as 150 kilometers (93 miles) away, it's questionable how much of a threat the unproven system could pose to U.S. aircraft operating far off the country's coast, Moon said.

It's also unclear whether North Korea would be able to even see the advanced U.S. warplanes when they come. South Korea's National Intelligence Service told lawmakers in a closed-door briefing on Tuesday that the North's inadequate radar systems failed to detect the B-1B bombers as they flew east of North Korea.

Oberon

09-26-17, 01:14 PM

I think one could also predict it would be a one-way suicide mission.

Yup, the whole North Korean strategy is basically taking as many with them as they can. If you know you're going to die, then you have nothing to lose.
In regards to the North Korean populace, there's only so much we can truly know, but I think that it wouldn't be a bad idea to at least make a comparison to the Japanese of World War II, in particular how they viewed the American attackers.
Recall the Battle of Saipan:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eDUy0uzmaU4

I would wager that similar propaganda, if not worse, is at play in North Korea.

mapuc

09-26-17, 03:23 PM

I have, through my taxes, helped NK in their effort to develop Nukes, ICBM and so on.

Background story-The Danish Government decide some years ago to build a new warship. The Ship yard who got the order was Danish who used a polish Ship yard.

Now a in turned out that this Ship yard have used NK slave worker.

From a Danish Article about this subject.

(Used translate)

North Korean forced workers have helped build the Danish armed Forces newest warship, new documents are revealing. Thus, Danish tax crowns have gone to the North Korean regime.

The Danish Navy's latest inspection vessel, Lauge Koch, to be put into service in December this year, is partly built on a Polish shipyard that has used North Korean workers. And according to contracts, receipts and eyewitnesses, the North Koreans have participated in the construction of the Danish ship.

North Korean workers abroad are an important source of hard currency to develop the North Korean nuclear and missile program, says the South Korean ambassador in Denmark, Jai-chul Choi

If Danish taxpayer's money is spent on nuclear and missile programs, then it's catastrophic.

The total price of the ship Lauge Koch is over half a billion, and the Armed Forces have hired the Danish Karstensen Shipyard to build the ship.
Karstensen has assigned a part of the construction of the shipyard Crist in Poland, where labor is cheaper. Crist has hired a Polish subcontractor who has used North Korean workers, employed via the company Rungrado. The state-owned North Korean Rungrado is now hit by sanctions, partly because of illegal trafficking in missile technology."

So some of us have without our knowledge helped or may be helping the regime in NK

Markus

Platapus

09-26-17, 03:42 PM

It would be over in about 2-3 weeks if stay conventional or less than that. If it turn into something more terrible thing the war will be very short.

Markus

The war will be over in a few weeks. Now where have I heard that before?

blackswan40

09-26-17, 03:52 PM

Billy Bragg said it best in this song
Help Save the Youth of America

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fiQh51gdsLQ

mapuc

09-26-17, 04:11 PM

The war will be over in a few weeks. Now where have I heard that before?

I'm not expert in military history

I wrote it with my mind on what have been written here on subsim, and other places like the news article.

I have from all this got following input

Thou longer it goes on thou more likely China will get involved.

It's not in USA's interest to wipe NK from the map-Only to stop or cripple its nuclear program and to decrease its military possibility to strike back

Therefore keep it so short as possible and destroy as much as possible with conventional weapon in a short time as possible.

Today I read in an article some military expert said- A war between NK and USA could give/cost about 20.000 dead each day and 90 % of these will be North Koreans (military and civilians)

He said the chances for at war is 50-50 % and a nuclear war is about
10 %.

Markus

eddie

09-28-17, 01:06 AM

Don't worry Oberon, our Commander-in-Chief will handle North Korea without a problem! I mean, what could go wrong!?! :haha:

https://s19.postimg.org/e7l709qyr/18342682_257956311337825_1218695275102346648_n.jpg (https://postimages.org/)

Reece

09-28-17, 03:50 AM

STEED

09-28-17, 05:25 AM

I'm with Ripley on this one.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aCbfMkh940Q

Jimbuna

09-28-17, 08:20 AM

No point using nukes because the biggest cockroach of them all would probably survive and besides, why should the oppressed people of NK take the brunt?

Rockstar

09-28-17, 08:54 AM

Ya know there is a government that demands its 25 million person population to look upon it and its leader as divine and the source of all inspiration and tortures and kills all dissenters real or perceived. Now the god man of this cult has nuclear weapons and likes to threaten its primary benefactor and shoot them over sovereign nations.

Keep laughing, keep your head in the sand, and see where it leads if nothing is done about it. You think it would be bad now? Love how everyone jumps on the freedom and democracy bandwagon so long as its the other guy dying for it.

Sleep well now you wonderful defenders of freedom. lol

http://www.ohchr.org/EN/HRBodies/HRC/CoIDPRK/Pages/ReportoftheCommissionofInquiryDPRK.aspx

Oberon

09-28-17, 04:49 PM

It's all fun and games until it isn't the other guy dying for it, but you. :yep:

http://thediplomat.com/2017/09/us-should-assume-north-korea-has-nuclear-icbm-capability-today-us-joint-chiefs-chairman/

How much is an American worth? More or less than a North Korean?

mapuc

09-28-17, 04:54 PM

Today I have read two things about NK

1. Some person from SK have said that they expect KJU to do some provocation around middle of October

2. According to NK's only press millions have joined the army to fight USA

Propaganda say SK.

Markus

Oberon

09-28-17, 06:26 PM

Moon wants out of the wartime OPCON:

https://www.voanews.com/a/south-korea-wants-out-of-us-military-control/4047790.html

Aktungbby

10-02-17, 12:31 PM

Fatboy likes to break the rules; we can break a few of our own. One thing though: an international murder warrant should be issued for Kim over the assassination death of his half brother in Malaysia. Talk about 'loss of face'; should he leave to visit China, for example, his so-called diplomatic immunity will not apply and China must comply with the warrant or be exposed for showing its true colors. Their participation in the present economic sanctions is a complete fraud...easily circumvented along the common boarder. This is about China, not its patsy North Korea.

. He is an international thief and murderer (his half brother & illicit wire transfer of bitcoin and currency)...we should brook no further aggression based on the lessons already learned in the '40's and move to eradicate the problem permanently.
An interesting update in Malaysia: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-41464331 (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-41464331)
The four North Koreans(handler) who fled Malaysia the day of the murder are also under indictment; so why not their 'fearless leader as well??!! But now his death has been conclusively linked to the VX nerve agent (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-39073389). Most experts agree that the presence of VX means there is likely to be some kind of state connection to this killing. And North Korea does have institutions with the wherewithal to carry out such an attack. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-39073839 (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-39073839) Malaysia should spare the damsel-patsies and issue an international warrant against the DPRK's murderous leader. Both Malaysia and the DKRP have withdrawn their ambassadors over the murder. I'm under no illusion it could be served but it's loss-of-face political value branding 'revered leader' as a common murder suspect cannot hurt.

Delgard

10-02-17, 08:39 PM

Moon wants out of the wartime OPCON:

https://www.voanews.com/a/south-korea-wants-out-of-us-military-control/4047790.html

They have always wanted, for the most part, wartime control and they are on a track for that through making certain "capabilities" are attained. One, for hypothetical example, is to have joint interoperability among all air defense systems. It is a lot better if a radar, any air defense radar, be able to communicate automatically with any air defense interdiction system. The Army has one system, the Navy another and the Air Force has their systems, and their own sets of radars. That lack of inter-operability would be a serious weakness.

There are also noticeable challenges with ground firing systems (missile/artillery) that I have read about.

The Ministry Of Defense and its Chiefs of Staff know of these types of weaknesses. THEY were the ones that pushed for the requirements to obtain certain capabilities before assuming a larger role. The government agreed and the Americans, as the UN senior representative, agreed to those requirements. I am not sure of all the requirements and I am not sure the scenario above is accurate, but I used it as an example.

As a student studying the Koreas, off and on, since I was there in the 80s, I understand that the citizens take their rights very seriously when it comes to social or economic development, not necessarily military development. Although, they are putting more monies to the military in the last few years under President Park. But, alas, she is gone and a former human rights lawyer was voted in. Pres. Moon may not be as wise to how things can change overnight, and, his chosen Ministers are not as hardline. The military leadership knows what direction they must take, but funding is not going sufficiently or quickly enough to enhance capabilities at the speed that NK is developing their missile systems.

KJU just takes the money from his citizens and SK can't just do that. SK has raised their defense budget a bit, but, a bit is not very much. Definitely not enough to keep up with NK's nuke missile program.

Another thing that I have learned about their OPCON is that they have full authorities for Phase 1 (prepare) and Phase 2 (defense reaction to limited incidents), but not for all out offensive war (Phase 3). I am not sure where the lines are drawn, that is probably a close-hold type of info.

Anyway, The news last year? said the SK "citizens" had a hissy-fit about such a radar system (THAAD) even being in their country. To deal with ballistic missiles, even short range ones, ya' got to have radars with certain capabilities.

I think their are many voices in SK and the ones that have the wisdom are being drowned out. But, then again, why would the North Koreans want to attack South Korea? North Korea has far more anger against another country.

Last I heard, the agreement is that the SK military has to have certain capabilities before Phase 3 can be implemented unilaterally. Their military wanted that to ensure no political shenanigans changed the standards.

The Diplomat is a decent reference. Some good newspapers, too.

Delgard

10-02-17, 08:52 PM

Rockstar

10-02-17, 09:18 PM

http://underscoopfire.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/kool-aid-man.jpg

Oberon

10-02-17, 10:09 PM

They have always wanted, for the most part, wartime control and they are on a track for that through making certain "capabilities" are attained. One, for hypothetical example, is to have joint interoperability among all air defense systems. It is a lot better if a radar, any air defense radar, be able to communicate automatically with any air defense interdiction system. The Army has one system, the Navy another and the Air Force has their systems, and their own sets of radars. That lack of inter-operability would be a serious weakness.

There are also noticeable challenges with ground firing systems (missile/artillery) that I have read about.

The Ministry Of Defense and its Chiefs of Staff know of these types of weaknesses. THEY were the ones that pushed for the requirements to obtain certain capabilities before assuming a larger role. The government agreed and the Americans, as the UN senior representative, agreed to those requirements. I am not sure of all the requirements and I am not sure the scenario above is accurate, but I used it as an example.

As a student studying the Koreas, off and on, since I was there in the 80s, I understand that the citizens take their rights very seriously when it comes to social or economic development, not necessarily military development. Although, they are putting more monies to the military in the last few years under President Park. But, alas, she is gone and a former human rights lawyer was voted in. Pres. Moon may not be as wise to how things can change overnight, and, his chosen Ministers are not as hardline. The military leadership knows what direction they must take, but funding is not going sufficiently or quickly enough to enhance capabilities at the speed that NK is developing their missile systems.

KJU just takes the money from his citizens and SK can't just do that. SK has raised their defense budget a bit, but, a bit is not very much. Definitely not enough to keep up with NK's nuke missile program.

Another thing that I have learned about their OPCON is that they have full authorities for Phase 1 (prepare) and Phase 2 (defense reaction to limited incidents), but not for all out offensive war (Phase 3). I am not sure where the lines are drawn, that is probably a close-hold type of info.

Anyway, The news last year? said the SK "citizens" had a hissy-fit about such a radar system (THAAD) even being in their country. To deal with ballistic missiles, even short range ones, ya' got to have radars with certain capabilities.

I think their are many voices in SK and the ones that have the wisdom are being drowned out. But, then again, why would the North Koreans want to attack South Korea? North Korea has far more anger against another country.

Last I heard, the agreement is that the SK military has to have certain capabilities before Phase 3 can be implemented unilaterally. Their military wanted that to ensure no political shenanigans changed the standards.

The Diplomat is a decent reference. Some good newspapers, too.

I do believe that they have put forward for an extension to the ballistic missile range limit in response to the DPRK tests, their current missiles and cruise missiles are quite good in the roles that they're designed for, to engage North Korean leadership and communication capabilities in a decapitation attempt.
Moon, I think, was a bit of a dreamer, I think he thought he could bring back the sunshine policy, but now I think he's beginning to realise that the DPRK is only interested in a negotiation that recognises its status as a nuclear power and does not seek to alter that status. It's possible that he hopes that he could do some business along those lines, but when Trump and Kim Jong-un are fighting, Moon is small fry, he has no real power, he can't alienate the US (no matter how much the US might try) but at the same time he can't unilaterally declare war on North Korea (although many of his generals would probably disagree).

Of course, the problem with missiles, and I think that this is something that the US is also going to run into in the not too distant future, is that it is more expensive to build missile defence than it is to build missile offense. Until we find a way to create some kind of cost parity, or make missile defence cheaper and more reliable, then you're always going to find the problem that the enemy has more missiles than you can intercept, especially if you're salvo firing them a few per missile to maximise the chances of a successful interception. The US is going to find that with the Hwasong-14, I believe that there has been a motion to increase the number of missiles at the GMD in Alaska, but that will take time and money to do, in the meantime once the DPRK has built more than 20 ICBMs then a nuclear strike on the US mainland becomes dramatically more likely to succeed.

Of course, what's not helping is the absolute chaos that is the US administration at the moment. I feel quite sorry for Tillerson, the guy really is trying, but his boss is not helping. Even if it is Trump trying to utilise the 'Crazy guy' strategy as some have supposed, he's not exactly doing it with any level of acumen.

Still, we'll see what transpires, I've seen reports that the DPRK has been shunting their missiles around, they took some out from their development site the other day, and people tend to think that October 10th might see some activity, it's Party Foundation Day in the DPRK and about a fortnight before the Japanese elections, so the likelihood of some kind of test happening around then is quite high. Exactly what the test will be is anyones best guess. I'm thinking a salvo of Hwasong-12s, myself, but they could up the ante and go for a full on Juche-bird...that would be quite terrifying.

Delgard

10-02-17, 10:35 PM

Oberon, I did not want to copy your message because mine was attached. It was getting big.

Anyway, helpful points.

I noticed that Tillerson was expressing that all things possible were being done, but that NK just didn't want to talk, which doesn't surprise my thoughts.

As to the President, he commented like a hardliner. I wish the SecDef would have expressed that since I see it as his lane. AND the President should speak a little less.

But, the world does see Tillerson as going more than halfway and that is a good card to have when talking to other pertinent countries on the issue. Trump, on the other hand spoke to KJU and his advisors and his words were that of an American cowboy. Kind of like Reagan.

I am understanding that launch sites are constantly changing and hide sites are plentiful. So, targeting them must be hard for any country. The mobile launchers pull out of a cave that has multiple entrances (and exits) and launch.

As to the ground game, they are so well dug in caves and the terrain is just very defense capable that going north will be very bloody on SK.

Anyway, time will tell.

Thanks

Mr Quatro

10-04-17, 06:41 AM

Only a mad man could speak like this ... They are warning us that if we don't go to war now they will unleash their arsenal of nuclear weapons sooner or later. :yep:

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/10/03/north-korea-promises-to-bring-nuclear-clouds-to-japan-mocks-pm-as-headless-chicken.html

North Korea threatened to bring “nuclear clouds” to Japan and mocked Prime Minister Shinzo Abe for acting like a “headless chicken” at the United Nations General Assembly when the leader urged U.N. members to force North Korea to end its nuclear and missile programs.

“Japan's such rackets inciting the tension of the Korean peninsula is a suicidal deed that will bring nuclear clouds to the Japanese archipelago,” the statement said. “No one knows when the touch-and-go situation will lead to a nuclear war, but if so, the Japanese archipelago will be engulfed in flames in a moment. This is too self-evident."

"The four islands of the archipelago should be sunken into the sea by the nuclear bomb of Juche. Japan is no longer needed to exist near us," KCNA said in another message.

Jimbuna

10-04-17, 07:51 AM

Talk is cheap but the price of such talk can sometimes amount to astronomical levels.

mapuc

10-06-17, 03:14 PM

Can we expect something soon ?

This is what I have read in a Swedish article (aftonbladet.se)

"
Donald Trump suddenly called for a press conference on Thursday evening.
The journalists gathered in a room where the president appeared with the United States Supreme Military.
- Do you know what this represents? Trump asked the reporters and continued after a little break:
"Maybe it's calm before the storm," he said.

On Thursday evening, President Donald Trump invited the United States Supreme Military for dinner in Washington. Generals and amirals with their respective had arrived at the White House when the president suddenly called for a press conference.
The journalists were shown in the White House's large dining room.

Trump posed with the military in front of the cameras. Then he gestured against the reporters.
- Do you know what this represents? Perhaps it's calm before the storm. It could be calm, calm before the storm, he said.
A reporter in the room responded quickly:
- What storm? IS? North Korea? Iran?
"You will see," replied Trump.
The president did not further develop exactly what he meant by "the calm before the storm". Instead, he fought to pour praise on the US military.
"We have the world's best military in this room," he said.

Earlier in the evening, the president met with his closest colleagues and discussed military issues. According to the news agency AP, Trump said that the meeting should have made great progress.
The meeting should have been about, among other things, IS and North Korea.
According to AP, Trump then commented on North Korea and Kim Jong-Un.
"We can not allow this dictatorship to threaten our country or our allies.
He also promised that "we must do what we can to prevent something happening and we will act if necessary, believe me," he said.
"

Markus

Oberon

10-06-17, 04:58 PM

Unpredictability is the best solution to a situation with high tension. :yep: :dead:

Buddahaid

10-06-17, 07:00 PM

Don't worry it's all under control....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7xNnRBksvOU

Onkel Neal

10-06-17, 09:19 PM

If it happens, I hope South Korea doesn't take the hit.

Oberon

10-07-17, 06:22 AM

If it happens, I hope South Korea doesn't take the hit.

I hope so too, but unfortunately the odds are not very favourable. Likewise with Japan. There's just too many US bases and staging points in both nations, so even if the US goes over the ROKs objections and launches strikes from long range bombers and naval assets, I doubt that the DPRK would leave airfields in South Korea alone with the knowledge that they could be used against them, likewise with the missiles and command being prime targets it's also quite likely that each missile battery has standing orders and targets so that they can operate independently of higher command if needed.

I think if any scenario involving an attack on North Korea, South Korea gets hit the worst in return, then Japan, then Guam, Hawaii and the mainland US in that order. Although in regards to Hawaii and the mainland US it depends on whether Kim Jong-un is going to go all in or try to stop it in return for sparing the US mainland from the Hwasong-14s. Given that he knows that the US and ROK OPLANs call for decapitation strikes though, he might just go all in, since holding back the ICBMs might mean that they never get used.

Catfish

10-07-17, 06:34 AM

Strange that in those so-called enlightened and modern times, there can be lunatics as state leaders abusing their citizens, and the rest of the world does not interfere or care until an international safety valve goes off. North Korea is one problem, China will be the problem.

As long as there is nationalistic pride, propaganda, hegemony and people who do not learn or are just plain dumb, there will always be wars.
It is so easy to brainwash people, or instantly raise them with a patriot complex that beats all humanity or better knowledge.
I guess humans do not deserve to develop further, and it will be a good thing when we finally have killed all of us. Only downside is the rest of planetary life will also suffer from that :nope:

Delgard

10-07-17, 10:10 AM

I noticed that the President met over dinner with his military and security advisors the other night. I took it that some decisions were made. I doubt that those decisions were towards taking offensive actions in a noticeable way. But, defensive actions may start to occur, logistics for one. I follow news and hope to detect that.

Be nice if any others hear things to post.

Jimbuna

10-07-17, 10:18 AM

Analyst Raises Scenario of a China Takeover of North Korea

https://www.voanews.com/a/analyst-scenario-china-takeover-north-korea/4060505.html

Skybird

10-07-17, 10:25 AM

China taking over N-korea - I could imagine that to be a bottomless money-grave. China may want to have a close look at the financial numbers of German re-unification - and Eastgermany was in a tip-top shape when the wall fell, compared to N-Korea.

I expect this scenario to calculate extraordinarily bad, financially. And this with China having brought itself into troubles with high-flying debts in the past years already, and inflatingtheir money. Something that 7, 8 years ago I did not expect: that they would needlessly repeat the same stupid mistakes the West has done.

Jimbuna

10-07-17, 10:32 AM

I think the greatest unknown is precisely, what is China thinking and what are their intentions.

Delgard

10-07-17, 10:42 AM

China has moved units to the long border with NK, but not enough offensively. I believe, my analytical thought, is that China will want a buffer between itself and a SK-controlled area of NK if the world's voice says that SK should have NK after a war is over.

I just see a 30-50k buffer zone that China will heavily guard. The former NK citizens in that zone will be used as very cheap labor for military projects in that zone.

ikalugin

10-07-17, 10:43 AM

Skybird

10-07-17, 10:43 AM

I think the greatest unknown is precisely, what is China thinking and what are their intentions.

1. Getting a foothold on the Korean peninsula.
2. Keeping their flank war-free
3. Getting rid of a certain constant annoyance named Kim
4. Keeping the Americans out for sure.
5. Strenghtening their naval-strategic position in the region, namely regarding the South Chinese Sea conflict
6. Pissing India.
7. Signaling South Korea (and Taiwan!) where their place is.

Skybird

10-07-17, 10:46 AM

China is not a liberal/democratic state, it is not obliged to invest into the region it annexes.
But they want to appear as a high ranking civilization. Having parts of their subordinates starving by the tens of thousands year by year, is no good self-advertising. See the shopping window rivalry between the West and East along the split-German frontline during the cold war.

ikalugin

10-07-17, 10:52 AM

But they want to appear as a high ranking civilization. Having parts of their subordinates starving by the tens of thousands year by year, is no good self-advertising. See the shopping window rivalry between the West and East along the split-German frontline during the cold war.
Yet the level of Chinese rural areas is not exactly high either, so I don't see any game changing costs here.

Delgard

10-07-17, 10:58 AM

I mentioned a buffer zone and I don't think it will get much investment other than for military use. Ports and airfields will, though.

vienna

10-08-17, 05:05 AM

China has shown it really doesn't like to annex already existing nations (unlike Russia in Georgia, the Ukraine, etc.); if anything, they seem to favor creating outposts as a means to exert and support territorial claims as they do by creating artificial Chinese national islands in the China Seas. However, China has made one significant military foray into another nation:

Sino-Vietnamese War --

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Vietnamese_War

This slapdown of Vietnam in 1979 by China , or as Chinese Vice-premier Deng Xiaoping put it, "The little child is getting naughty, it's time he get spanked", was not only a sharp message to the Vietnamese government, but also a rebuke to the Soviet Union's attempts to exert influence in SE Asia. This is interesting given the seeming coziness Russia is currently expressing towards NK...

<O>

Mr Quatro

10-08-17, 06:16 AM

Sounds like war drums, uh? Perhaps a major build up of our fleet off shore, perhaps an Ohio class submarine SSGN: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cruise_missile_submarine

(the U.S. Navy modified the four oldest Ohio-class submarines: USS Ohio, Michigan, Florida, and Georgia into SSGNs. The conversion was achieved by installing vertical launching systems (VLS) in a multiple all-up-round canister (MAC) configuration in 22 of the 24 missile tubes, replacing one Trident missile with 7 smaller Tomahawk cruise missiles. The 2 remaining tubes were converted to lockout chambers for use by special forces personnel. This gave each converted submarine the capability to carry up to 154 Tomahawks.)

Perhaps B-1 bombers converted to drop mines, perhaps US Army and US Air Force ready to drop paratroopers behind enemies lines, perhaps Seal team with diversions for NK to follow up on, perhaps shock and awe, perhaps air burst EMP weapons, perhaps rocket man targeted with an insider knowing where he is at all times sending out a signal.

Perhaps all of the above and even more without using nuclear weapons to stop NK from being a threat anymore.

I don't like President Trumps little crooked smile with the words, "Wait and see" "You'll find out". :o

If this goes wrong it could be the end of Donald Trump ... Why would NK give up and face defeat without striking back ... war has it's consequences.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/onpolitics/2017/10/07/donald-trump-north-korea-tweets/743135001/

WASHINGTON — President Trump tweeted new storm warnings Saturday, this time aimed at North Korea.

In a pair of late-afternoon tweets, Trump wrote that negotiations with the truculent, isolated nation had backfired, "makings (sic) fools of U.S. negotiators. Sorry, but only one thing will work!"

He didn't make clear what that "one thing" is but has been hinting for several days that the time for diplomacy has passed, leaving a military strike as the most likely option. On Friday, the morning after he met with the nation's top military commanders, Trump spoke in cryptic terms about the "calm before the storm." When asked to clarify, Trump said: "You'll find out."

Jimbuna

10-08-17, 06:37 AM

I doubt the peace will last up to xmas.

vienna

10-08-17, 06:44 AM

Sounds like war drums, uh? Perhaps a major build up of our fleet off shore, perhaps an Ohio class submarine SSGN: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cruise_missile_submarine

(the U.S. Navy modified the four oldest Ohio-class submarines: USS Ohio, Michigan, Florida, and Georgia into SSGNs. The conversion was achieved by installing vertical launching systems (VLS) in a multiple all-up-round canister (MAC) configuration in 22 of the 24 missile tubes, replacing one Trident missile with 7 smaller Tomahawk cruise missiles. The 2 remaining tubes were converted to lockout chambers for use by special forces personnel. This gave each converted submarine the capability to carry up to 154 Tomahawks.)

Perhaps B-1 bombers converted to drop mines, perhaps US Army and US Air Force ready to drop paratroopers behind enemies lines, perhaps Seal team with diversions for NK to follow up on, perhaps shock and awe, perhaps air burst EMP weapons, perhaps rocket man targeted with an insider knowing where he is at all times sending out a signal.

Perhaps all of the above and even more without using nuclear weapons to stop NK from being a threat anymore.

I don't like President Trumps little crooked smile with the words, "Wait and see" "You'll find out". :o

If this goes wrong it could be the end of Donald Trump ... Why would NK give up and face defeat without striking back ... war has it's consequences.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/onpolitics/2017/10/07/donald-trump-north-korea-tweets/743135001/

Trump has been long playing both ends of any issue; for instance, with DACA: to the Trumpettes he's been mouthing the 'hard line', while, to the DACA people he's been saying everything's gonna work out fine for them and he's put Congress squarely in the middle; and, regardless with what happens, Trump is setting himself up to appear as the "hero:

1) If Congress does pass a law extending and/or expanding DACA, Trump will be able to say to his Trumpettes "Well, I tried to end DACA, but Congress wouldn't let me" and to the DACA people he will say "I told you it would work out"...

2) If Congress doesn't pass a law extending and/or expanding DACA, Trump will be able to say to his Trumpettes "I delivered on my promise and ended DACA" and to the DACA people he will say "Well, I tried to save DACA, but Congress wouldn't act on it"...

Either way, he'll claim credit for whatever outcome and try to pass himself off as "presidential"...

...and now he's doing the same thing with his "little crooked smile with the words, "Wait and see" "You'll find out": if there is a military action against NK, he'll sit there and say "I told you so", making his Trumpettes happy and, if a diplomatic solution is found, he will also sit there and say "I told you so" making the rest of the electorate happy; by being cryptic, he sets him self up to "win", no matter what the result and you can rest assured, he'll be front and center to give himself credit even if he ultimately had no hand in either solution and, by waffling, displayed no real substantive, definitive leadership...

<O>

Platapus

10-08-17, 08:56 AM

I am not sure that Trump has ever experienced harsh consequences about his actions. Foreign Relations is not one area where one can just declare bankruptcy and take a business "mulligan".

There are no do-overs and no save games one can just reload.
I have a real fear that Trump is willing to start a war just to get the boost of being a "war" president like it did for Bush.

It is all about the ratings for our reality TV president.

vienna

10-08-17, 09:42 AM

The GW Bush Trump analogy is a valid point; both came from privileged, wealthy backgrounds, both had daddy's money to help bail them out of their difficulties, both were involved in a series of failed or failing business activities, both were less than stellar students, one, GWB, had a questionable and, by most accounts, unfinished military stint in an Air Guard unit the Guard itself self-described as a haven for the wealthy and influential to evade the regular draft and possible deployment to Vietnam, and the other, Trump, used his family connections to finagle a draft deferment for a 'sore foot' to evade service, and both never really worked a real job or real wages in their lives. Say what you will about Bill Clinton and Obama, they were both men who came from humble backgrounds and, by their own academic efforts, were able to be successful; and you can add to the mix Ronald Regan, who also came from humble beginnings and worked hard to achieve his goals. With both Bushes, and now Trump, there is we have had a sporadic run of Presidents from wealth who have or are being proven as being much less than effective at the task of President than those who did not come from privilege...

NB: I am not including GHW Bush in my critique of GWB and DT and their lack of or lacking in military service: GHW Bush served honorably and bravely and deserves proper respect for his service...

<O>

Oberon

10-08-17, 10:46 AM

That's my concern too Platapus, hopefully he's not stupid enough to fire the first shot though, since China has already declared its intent to intervene if the DPRK is attacked. I expect the goal is to try and provoke the DPRK into firing first, thus giving the US the cassus belli to execute its war plan.

It'll be the first direct war between nuclear armed powers, unless you count the 1999 Kargil war between India and Pakistan which was more a series of skirmishes than a direct conflict unlike the previous 1971 war. There'll be a lot of data to be gathered about the effect of a nuclear exchange on the climate as well as the local populace.

Aktungbby

10-08-17, 11:40 AM

Can we expect something soon ?

Unpredictability is the best solution to a situation with high tension.... hopefully he's not stupid enough to fire the first shot though, since China has already declared its intent to intervene if the DPRK is attacked. I expect the goal is to try and provoke the DPRK into firing first, thus giving the US the cassus belli to execute its war plan. :yep: :dead:

https://media3.giphy.com/media/3oz8xwlFLZXlMPFkVW/200w.gif#42-grid1meetshttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mEtldt-FI8Y (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mEtldt-FI8Y):Kaleun_Party:as I enjoy the ride in (suddenly) sunny Napa... https://media0.giphy.com/media/FyfcLTu4JkjFm/200w.gif#4-grid1:Kaleun_Crying:

Oberon

10-08-17, 11:59 AM

It's ok, Aktung, you've got a fridge nearby, haven't you?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Arib8uWMWsM

I'm sorry, that was in bad taste...I shouldn't have posted from that film. :haha:

mapuc

10-08-17, 02:21 PM

Oberon wrote
since China has already declared its intent to intervene if the DPRK is attacked Have read and heard this several times.

What if USA/Trump gave something to China, so they, so to say close their eyes for USA conduct a bombing campaign against NK
(I know USA/NATO did this before the first Iraq war started-China would have put a VETO, but they put down their voting instead)

If USA got the back free and can conduct a strike on NK everyone may think, KJU got a smack on his fingers. This is what he need and he will understand he have done something wrong and now all will be normal again

Nothing could be more wrong.
NK/KJU may pull back and stay calm for month, then when we less expect it, NK conduct a massiv artillery attack or similar on SK or a missile attack on JP.

Can't say if he's going to attack right after and if he's going to use nuke.

The possibility is high.

Markus

Mr Quatro

10-09-17, 08:15 AM

Maybe this is why Trump has a smirk on his face when he said, "Wait and see" He has GB on his side to take on NK. Seems that tomorrow is make or break for the Rocket Man.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/britain-apos-prepares-war-north-031737564.html

Britain 'draws up battle plan for war with North Korea'

Britain is reportedly preparing for the possibility of war breaking out with North Korea as concerns rise that another provocative missile test could trigger a military response by the US.

North Korea is being closely watched amid fears it could launch another long-range missile test on Tuesday to mark the anniversary of the founding of its ruling party.

Bellicose rhetoric from Donald Trump has heightened tensions in the region in recent months, prompting British officials to draw up military plans for a response to a break out of hostilities, it was reported.

Among the plans disclosed by the Daily Mail is the deployment of the Navy's newest aircraft carrier, HMS Queen Elizabeth, before it has undergone flight trials.

Oberon

10-09-17, 08:20 AM

Of course the loyal dog must follow the orders of its master.

Rockstar

10-09-17, 11:07 AM

Even in the late nineties it was widely known the North in all likelihood could not wage a major conflict let alone defeat its southern neighbor. Times have changed in North Korea its people have changed their attitudes have changed. Maybe the time is ripe to put the pressure on to help motivate the general population. Maybe it is time we see their self proclaimed god-man to step down and be tried for most heinous crimes against humanity.

One of my colleagues once said, “I am hungry. I think the government shouldn’t neglect hungry soldiers like this because when people are starving to death, you never know where they would point their guns.” I, who had been raised by a most patriotic father, was shocked to hear this comment, implying the possibility of rebellion. But it was I who was different from others.

This story captures reality of commando units in North Korea. Nowadays, commando units are filled with children of poor families who have no other choice but to go there. There’s no special pride or sense of duty that their seniors once had. However, even the soldiers in lead elite troops who still get some rations have changed. In the past, soldiers in lead elite troops were ready to commit suicide for the government and the general. Nowadays, going back home alive is their one and only mission.

Even an old dog can sense weakness and take advantage of it

Catfish

10-09-17, 12:25 PM

[...]
Even an old dog can sense weakness and take advantage of it

And there i was, thinking O. meant England :03:

B.t.w. here are some excellent design pieces for your home:

https://i.imgur.com/jB7v2SX.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/nVnCYoP.jpg

Designed by a japanese.

Oberon

10-09-17, 12:55 PM

I'm sure that if we ask Kim Jong-un nicely he'll stand down and hand himself over to be tried by the international courts. There's definitely no risk of a nuclear launch during a North Korea civil war, or that nuclear weapons would be given to terrorists. :yep:

Rockstar

10-09-17, 12:59 PM

Its only going to get worse if this cult government remains in power. Frankly I think there's a better chance of stability and unification on the peninsula without Fatboy than there is with him. What we are doing now might just be what's needed to encourage the Nork army and citizens to do what others are afraid to do.

Oberon

10-09-17, 01:58 PM

You might be right, or it might be a case of 'better the devil you know', but the biggest problem with any regime change activity is the period of chaos at the end of the first regime and before the beginning of the second, not to mention the possibility of insurgent activity in the longer aftermath term.
When you throw nuclear weapons into this mix, it gets a whole lot nastier for North Korea and the nations around it. What's to stop Kim Jong-un from launching his nukes as the people storm his palace? We'd have to hope that the missile commanders aren't loyalists, and chances are, Kim has already thought of that and they're probably on the best pay (whatever that is) of the KPA.

Be careful what you wish for, that's all I'm saying.

Mr Quatro

10-09-17, 04:15 PM

Be careful what you wish for, that's all I'm saying.

I wish for a military victory by the US and it's allies including South Korea and Japan and a peaceful reunification of the North and the South as they are after all the same people with two different ideology's.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/what-happens-if-trump-totally-destroys-north-korea-the-real-fighting-begins
So what could be more dangerous? As South Korean and American forces move north, the Chinese would probably move south.
China’s military would also want to find nuclear weapons, stocks of chemical and biological agents, and ballistic missiles. Beijing, however, covets something even more important to China: paper.

The Chinese would need to secure North Korean archives, which will likely show their complicity in the Kim family’s weapons
programs and its horrific crimes.

This means China almost certainly would try to secure the capital of Pyongyang and weapons sites before South Korean and American forces did so.

Platapus

10-09-17, 04:57 PM

Of course the loyal dog must follow the orders of its master.

That's a bit harsh. Britain is free to have any opinion the United States decides it should have. :D

vienna

10-09-17, 08:10 PM

That's a bit harsh. Britain is free to have any opinion the United States decides it should have. :D

Been doing side work for the Trump White House, now? :haha:

<O>

Oberon

10-09-17, 09:37 PM

I wish for a military victory by the US and it's allies including South Korea and Japan and a peaceful reunification of the North and the South as they are after all the same people with two different ideology's.

Have you ever heard of the short story 'The Monkeys Paw'?

The short story involves Mr. and Mrs. White and their adult son, Herbert. Sergeant-Major Morris, a friend who served with the British Army in India, introduces them to a mummified monkey's paw. An old fakir placed a spell on the paw, that it would grant three wishes. The wishes are granted but always with hellish consequences as punishment for tampering with fate. Morris, having had a horrific experience using the paw, throws the monkey's paw into the fire but Mr. White retrieves it. Before leaving, Morris warns Mr. White that if he does use the paw, then it will be on his own head.
At Herbert's suggestion, Mr. White flippantly wishes for £200, which will enable him to make the final mortgage payment for his house, even though he believes he has everything he wants. The next day his son Herbert leaves for work at a local factory. Later that day, word comes to the White home that Herbert has been killed in a terrible machinery accident. Although the employer denies responsibility for the incident, the firm has decided to make a goodwill payment to the family of the deceased. The payment, of £200, exactly matches the amount Herbert suggested his father should wish for.

I'm sure you'll get your military victory, your £200...somehow...

That's a bit harsh. Britain is free to have any opinion the United States decides it should have. :D

:har: :up:

Onkel Neal

10-10-17, 05:57 AM

Strange that in those so-called enlightened and modern times, there can be lunatics as state leaders abusing their citizens, and the rest of the world does not interfere or care until an international safety valve goes off. North Korea is one problem, China will be the problem.

Agreed. Agreed!

With all the protested injustices of the world, somehow we all overlook the horrible plight of people like the North Koreans. Even without a nuclear program, the civilized world should be working together to bring down that criminal regime and release the millions living there. It's a real shame.

ikalugin

10-10-17, 06:41 AM

Agreed. Agreed!

With all the protested injustices of the world, somehow we all overlook the horrible plight of people like the North Koreans. Even without a nuclear program, the civilized world should be working together to bring down that criminal regime and release the millions living there. It's a real shame.
Maybe the civilized world should disown it's own criminal allies first?

Avis30

10-10-17, 07:56 AM

And there i was, thinking O. meant England :03:

B.t.w. here are some excellent design pieces for your home:

https://i.imgur.com/jB7v2SX.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/nVnCYoP.jpg

Designed by a japanese.

This ish bomb a.f! Brilliance.

Delgard

10-10-17, 08:27 AM

Maybe the civilized world should disown it's own criminal allies first?

There are "criminal allies" in every land, but there are "ideals" that are basic to human rights, too. Those ideals are interpreted obviously by those that live under them, but in the case of North Korea, they are extremely crushed generation after generation.

NK soldiers are getting across the border, in small numbers, but they are tired of being hungry. First order of business is to feed them, then talk to them. NK citizens that get across the border to China, through higher disciplined NK troops, say the same thing.

The world is not perfect, but I am glad that I have rights to support American ideals. They are the best. If I thought they were no, I hope that I have the courage to go where they are better suited to me. Complaining without action is just negative. The process, to me, is to vote for the best imperfect, donate when I can, and just talk to those around me. Several good Supreme Court cases are coming up this term.

Dowly

10-10-17, 08:30 AM

North Korea 'hackers steal US-South Korea war plans'

Hackers from North Korea are reported to have stolen a large cache of military documents from South Korea, including a plan to assassinate North Korea's leader Kim Jong-un.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-41565281

Oops!

Delgard

10-10-17, 08:36 AM

The rise of the internet has been very good in many ways. But, there is a dark underbelly.

NK can't afford the cost of maintaining a highly trained army, but they can afford a highly trained team of cyber warriors and strategic missile systems.

KJU, and his father before him, have a good idea of effective warfare.

Mr Quatro

10-10-17, 10:21 AM

North Korea 'hackers steal US-South Korea war plans'

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-41565281

Oops!

Psalm 37:8 Refrain from anger and give up your rage; do not be agitated—it can only bring harm.

Perhaps if Kim Jong Un aka "Rocket Man" reads these documents he will get so mad he will get cancer and fall over. :yep:

Onkel Neal

10-10-17, 11:09 AM

I wish. If that worked, President Dotard would have been gone long ago.

Mr Quatro

10-10-17, 11:52 AM

North Korea has no choice, but to follow it's leader ... :yep:

at least America had a choice between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump.
I wonder what she would've done?

Trump is between a rock and hard place if he waits much longer North Korea
will rule the skies of America and UK and Japan with fear. :o

I doubt if they would ever launch first if left alone, but who wants to take that chance?

Seriously though isn't something this big of declaring war on North Korea up to the same
US Congress and Senate that can't even pass a budget or a good health care bill?

Oberon

10-10-17, 12:38 PM

You could have said a lot of that about Mao back in the day...

Catfish

10-10-17, 12:45 PM

In this situation, it is such a comforting feeling to have this.. as the head of the US.

Delgard

10-10-17, 01:32 PM

Yes, it will be a race between the U.S. and China to the critical sites. Even to just confirm damage and survey.

I also think China will keep some territory as a buffer. Korea has a great economic and military potential.

Oberon

10-10-17, 02:36 PM

At least it'll be slightly cheaper to repair the DPRK back to the status quo than it will be to repair the ROK. To bring the DPRK up to the level of the ROK though will take billions. Not to mention that the PRC would have to police the DPRK/PRC border like a hawk to stop a flood of refugees.

Platapus

10-10-17, 03:06 PM

Trump is between a rock and hard place if he waits much longer North Korea
will rule the skies of America and UK and Japan with fear. :o

Rule the skies with fear? Isn't that a bit dramatic?

In a list of things I am afraid of, military action on the part of NK is not near the top...... The US escalating military action in NK is much higher on my fear list.

mapuc

10-10-17, 03:12 PM

It's not an action movie, where the hero or heroes save the country, the world and the day.

It's for real and no one, knows for sure what's going to happen if USA bomb North Korea.

There are expert from all kind of areas* who are using all their skills to calculate what KJU could do and not do, if USA bomb NK
(* I think they are called think tank or something)

Markus

Rockstar

10-10-17, 04:07 PM

I'm quite sure just like every other country it takes more than one to agree to and actually turn the key to launch a nuclear strike against another nation. Those people, even a NorK, are aware of what the consequences of their actions will be if they concur with fatboy.

Mr Quatro

10-10-17, 04:29 PM

Delgard

10-10-17, 04:51 PM

I think it would be precision strikes....air defense will get taken out first.

Indicators...general ones....will be noticed first. Then the strikes and then teams to secure those WMD sited.

Or, a very select two to five sites that provide critical components.

There are options, but they are esculatory in nature.

mapuc

10-10-17, 05:30 PM

I think it would be the most obvious a precision strike.

The question is how big this strike will be.

Will it be short one-only a few targets being hit or will it be long bombing campaign ?

Markus

Delgard

10-10-17, 08:05 PM

Obviously, the world, and China, will accept and publically, maybe slowly, support limited precision strikes. But that would not include getting ALL of the nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons.

The sanctions are not effective because Russia will provide some aid, as politics are currently and will probably remain. China, also, is reluctant because they don't want to deal with the mess.

As someone said, "a rock and a hard place".

Oberon

10-10-17, 08:49 PM

The big snag being, by the time they get to these sites, the missiles will be long gone, fired at their targets. There's no reason to think that Kim would just sit back and let his missiles be taken out one by one. His only card involves immediate asymmetrical escalation, and that includes against China if he perceives that they have betrayed him. Beijing isn't that far from North Korea, it wouldn't even need one of their more modern missiles to cross that distance.
Basically, as soon as you start any attack on North Korea the likelihood of the wholesale launch of DPRK missiles increases exponentially. So rather than air defence sites, I think they'll have to go for whatever missiles they can find, and then hope that the anti-missile defences of South Korea, Japan, Guam, Hawaii and the US mainland can take out whatever they miss.

mapuc

10-11-17, 04:22 PM

Been wondering if all these tweets Trump have been written about/regarding North Korea isn't some kind of psychological warfare.

I could be wrong.

Markus

Mr Quatro

10-11-17, 04:26 PM

Been wondering if all these tweets Trump have been written about/regarding North Korea isn't some kind of psychological warfare.

I could be wrong.

Markus

Those threat tweets? Must have done something, uh? ... NK didn't fire a long range missile capable of hitting the USA mainland yet.

Rocket man flinched :yep:

mapuc

10-11-17, 04:47 PM

Those threat tweets? Must have done something, uh? ... NK didn't fire a long range missile capable of hitting the USA mainland yet.

Rocket man flinched :yep:

I guess you could say that these threats from KJU was also psychological warfare. Well to put it easily these threats backfired and that is very simpel why they did. You don't as a little country threaten a country/Superpower that is way bigger in all areas than yours.

This is what I think.

Markus

vienna

10-11-17, 07:19 PM

Actually, NK has fired missiles that are capable of hitting the US, so they do have them, they just haven't fired them at the US (yet)...

<O>

Oberon

10-12-17, 04:21 AM

Actually, NK has fired missiles that are capable of hitting the US, so they do have them, they just haven't fired them at the US (yet)...

<O>

Some people will only believe it when the first warhead initiates over Denver. :03:

Mr Quatro

10-12-17, 05:02 AM

Some people will only believe it when the first warhead initiates over Denver. :03:

NK doesn't need missiles to destroy South Korea and I suspect they could do serious damage to the USA ...
so don't be surprised that an attack on NK will result in your ATM being closed down: https://www.yahoo.com/gma/north-koreas-hacking-abilities-beyond-imagination-defector-says-215906352--abc-news-topstories.html

Jang, who runs an NGO helping defectors, claims he has been in touch with his former

North Korean colleagues working out of Shenyang, the capital of Liaoning Province in northern China, as recently as last year. He says they were part of the cyber attack units dispatched from Pyongyang to operate out of China,

disguised as freelance programmers, but with the aim to hack national security-related information from Seoul and Washington.

"My old college friends who are now heading cyber teams there laugh at the South’s cyber security. They say hacking into South Korean institutions is like a piece of cake," Jang said. "They sounded confident, and they are ready. For them, attacking South Korea with missiles and nuclear weapons are just waste of resources. All they need to bring down South Korea to complete chaos is to activate these malware viruses they have already prepared."

Oberon

10-12-17, 08:52 AM

Indeed, their cyber division is top notch, it's how they get a lot of their money these days. I believe they fleeced Bangladesh for $93m not that long ago. Then it's electronically laundered and goes through shell companies in the PRC to get various things dispatched to the border regions of China where they then 'go missing' across the border into the DPRK. It's a thriving economic industry down there, which is part of the reason the PRC is so reluctant to completely shut down trade with the DPRK because it accounts for most peoples earnings in that region. That being said, they are slowly tightening the noose, so we've got to give them some credit. Of course, backing a nuclear armed state into a corner is sure to work out well.

In regards to missiles that can hit the US, we're still not 100% certain of the Hwasong-14s range, I believe the current estimate is around 10,000km, which gives it access to roughly the western half of the US. Honestly, I think that the Hwasong-14 can go further than that, we just haven't seen its full potential yet.
The 14 though is just the first step, their next goal is to transition from liquid to solid fueled missiles, as it stands they fuel them horizontally and then roll them out to firing position and launch. This gives them the opportunity to fuel them underground in hidden shelters which reduces the warning time that the US would get, but it increases the risk that when they go to erect the thing, it falls over and explodes...and yes, this has happened, but with the Hwasong-12 apparently on the 15th April test this year.
Solid fueled missiles don't have that risk, and they don't need fueling because there's no evaporation risk like the liquid fueled ones. You can keep them on standby for some time before you need to change it over, and if you have it inside a canister then you have greater protection and it's easier to reload the TEL after launching. They have the technology for solid fueled missiles and canister launchers, they just haven't done it to the size of an ICBM yet. The Pukguksong 1 and 2 are solid fueled cold launch missiles, but they are SLBMs and IRBMs respectively.
There's still one TEL that appeared in their parade which hasn't shown up yet, and that's this thing:

http://i2.cdn.cnn.com/cnnnext/dam/assets/170416183956-north-korea-military-parade-op-ed-06-super-169.jpg

So they could well have some surprises left for us over the coming year. Things seem fairly quiet at Sinpo at the moment, they're constructing more buildings which is possibly to create more SSBs or a new class of SSB, but actual tests have quietened down at the moment. There was a spate of ejection tests which had people thinking we might be seeing a new solid fueled missile coming into play since the Pukguksong 1 and 2 have already been tested, or it could be that they're working on a new ejection system for the submarine, since one of their test launches broke the conning tower. :oops:

Delgard

10-12-17, 08:48 PM

I believe the continental U.S. has fielded 4 x squadrons already. I read in the spring that Japan had received the first few of their order.

As to policies and plans, I'm sure their are very senior governmental/military officials that provide experienced analytical recommendations based upon sets of conditions/events; someone has them in a book. Whether they are followed really depends on the person/small group making the decisions.

It would be foolish not to contemplate a set of variables to go along with potential events. Otherwise, it would take the decision-maker to long to get input based on valued thoughts.

Someone has a big fat binder. The decision-maker just has to find the opinions that match the events that are happening.

Getting those opinions to the decision-maker would be to hard if someone knocked out all of our communications with an EMP burst.

The picture below could very well be a fake. It happens with many countries that are just trying to puff out their shirt.

ikalugin

10-13-17, 01:41 AM

Squadrons of what? GBIs?

If we use the following assumptions:
- conservative view of US BMD (vs say Russian alarmist one)
- estimate of DPRK ICBM based on the known R36 series performance but adjusted for number of engines.

We would see that H-14 could carry 2-3 RVs, if developed to the Soviet 80s technology, which they may have acquired from disgrunted Ukrainian enginiers (https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/14/world/asia/north-korea-missiles-ukraine-factory.html?rref=collection%2Ftimestopic%2FNorth% 20Korea&action=click&contentCollection=world&region=stream&module=stream_unit&version=latest&contentPlacement=2&pgtype=collection). Then we would notice that in order to defeat 40-48 GBIs and deliver the minimal deterence criteria they would need only 20-16 ICBMs, which I would guess is within their capacity to produce.

Oberon

10-13-17, 05:45 AM

MIRVs are definitely on their to-do list, but I don't think they're there just yet, the Hwasong-14 is supposedly designed for a 'heavy payload', so MIRVing it is not out of the question, but I think by the time they've gone into MIRV technology they will probably have moved beyond the Hwasong-14 and gone into a cold launch solid fueled ICBM of some description.

What concerns me about Russia and missile interception is that Russia has so far misidentified most of the DPRKs launches, insisting that they haven't launched an ICBM yet. Now either they're doing this for political reasons, or their radar coverage of the DPRK isn't that good. Which makes one worry that if they miss any launch from the DPRK that the Alaskan GMD intercepts then all Russia is going to see is a load of ICBM like launches from Alaska that are going to land on Russia. :oops:

Delgard

10-13-17, 06:42 AM

4 Squadrons of F-35 aircraft.

ikalugin

10-13-17, 07:47 AM

4 Squadrons of F-35 aircraft.
Sorry, I do not follow how JSFs are related to the problem.

ikalugin

10-13-17, 07:55 AM

Oberon, the heaviest MIRVed ICBMs were always liquid fuelled ones.

All things considered they may be interested in ICBMs with storable liquid fuels due to how those are most efficient in terms of throw weight. For example Russia, despite mastering solid fuel MIRVed ICBMs (such as Yars) is still desighning a new generation liqiud fuel ICBM - Sarmat.

BMD stuff is not a significant issue in my opinion, as the BMD sites are well known and are covered by two EW systems, the EW radars and the new EW sats. While the sat force did suffer attrition, with the gap in capability occuring (2014?) it is now back to minimal capability (with more launches to go) and coverage of two nodes - Pacific and Atlantic from HEOs.
Specifically we have deployed new radar stations on Eastern direction, to improve EW in that direction:
http://www.russianspaceweb.com/images/spacecraft/military/tundra/radar_view_c2010_1.jpg
You can read more here: http://www.russianspaceweb.com/eks-network.html
http://russianforces.org/sprn/

Delgard

10-13-17, 08:14 AM

Someone mentioned about the JSF being operationally deployed. I am not as sure how many have moved from the assembly line to European buyers, but Japan is hot for them. Japan is quickly wearing out their F15/F16s just reacting to Chinese patrols.

I am not sure where S. Korea stands in the acquisition flow, but for my thinking, they may not see as much of a need at this point in having to deal with N. Korean air threats.

The Chinese are pushing for a blue water capability and the Japanese Archipelago really blocks them from getting into the Pacific. I did hear that China has "made" itself a corridor over/between small Japanese islands and Japan is pissed about it. But, what can they do?

Getting back to the JSF, at this point there may be 5 or 6 squadrons in the U.S. Most likely assigned around the U.S. perimeter. I do think Alaska, Virgina, and Tucson have squadrons, but not sure of the rest.

Oberon

10-13-17, 11:39 AM

We've got one squadron coming (slowly) online I believe, should be up by next year.

Really though the main thing the ROK will be after are CAS, since the KPAF will be pretty much dead within the first couple of days, if they even bother to show up.

Oberon, the heaviest MIRVed ICBMs were always liquid fuelled ones.

All things considered they may be interested in ICBMs with storable liquid fuels due to how those are most efficient in terms of throw weight. For example Russia, despite mastering solid fuel MIRVed ICBMs (such as Yars) is still desighning a new generation liqiud fuel ICBM - Sarmat.

I think survivability is the problem, for Russia it would not be easy for enemy aircraft to penetrate Russian airspace and hunt for TELs, but the DPRK is going to lose aerial superiority very quickly so it's either got to launch everything it has early before it gets blown up, or hide it very well. The advantages of Cold launch solid fuels mean that the preparation time is extremely small so they can just roll out and fire.

BMD stuff is not a significant issue in my opinion, as the BMD sites are well known and are covered by two EW systems, the EW radars and the new EW sats. While the sat force did suffer attrition, with the gap in capability occuring (2014?) it is now back to minimal capability (with more launches to go) and coverage of two nodes - Pacific and Atlantic from HEOs.
Specifically we have deployed new radar stations on Eastern direction, to improve EW in that direction:
http://www.russianspaceweb.com/images/spacecraft/military/tundra/radar_view_c2010_1.jpg
You can read more here: http://www.russianspaceweb.com/eks-network.html
http://russianforces.org/sprn/

So what's with the data discrepancy over the missile launches?

https://www.rt.com/news/395213-north-korea-missile-russian-defense/

https://www.rt.com/news/397886-north-korean-irbm-range/

The figures released by the Russian MOD on the 4th July launch are out by 2,000km altitude and 400km horizontal range.

ikalugin

10-14-17, 05:07 AM

Oberon

10-14-17, 09:22 AM

We know plenty of cases where liquid fuel missiles were and still are used on mobile platforms - from SCUDs to R29 series SLBMs on Deltas. So I dont think that launcher survivability is a core concern here.

Any number of reasons, from obvious political ones to military ones (disinformation regarding capabilities). The trajectory parameters are not the sole point of contention - the sources also show different launch sites.

Presumably though these liquid fueled missiles are not using cryogenic fuels? Otherwise that would severely limit the operational time of the missile.
There's two theories on how the DPRK got a tech jump on the 14, and that's that they got some RD-250 engines or a whole R-36 from sources. So that means the Hwasong-14 probably uses N2O4 and UDMH (or heptyl) propellant, so the main problem there would be corrosion from the N2O4, but if you mix that to MON then it's a bit easier.
Makes one wonder the pros and cons of modern liquid fueled vs solid fueled designs. Russia seems to be the only nation still using liquid fueled SLBMs so they must find some use in them, every other nation (including the DPRK) are using solid fueled. :hmmm:

In regards to the reasoning, it is rather confusing since it doesn't really serve Russian interests much. Russia is the only nation to under-state the DPRKs missile capabilities, even the DPRK gives differing figures, so it's not to protect the DPRK from something because they're already boasting about the Hwasong-14s range. If it's to under-state the capabilities of Russias early warning defence then who does that benefit? Surely that makes Russia look weaker rather than stronger and encourages her enemies to regard her as such? It's a position that I can't really figure out I must admit. If they were over-stating the figures then I could understand that they were trying to increase the DPRKs deterrent power, but if anything they're reducing it.
Very strange.