View Full Version : Strike on North Korea
Jimbuna
08-09-17, 07:40 AM
I've given up on trying to weigh up how serious NK are in issuing these repeated numerous threats but I certainly believe that should Guam be attacked, Trump will have every backing he needs from the US military and a majority of US citizens to retaliate proportionally or even more so.
Catfish
08-09-17, 09:07 AM
Is it still a no-go to just kill the leaders of an obvioulsy suppressed country?
I mean is it always needed to first kill of millions of civilians, until the boss runs away, or dies?
Get a commando in there and remove the ruling class. :arrgh!:
I guess it depends on who takes over after the boss. Removing Kim is probably fairly easy.
Mr Quatro
08-09-17, 11:04 AM
NK is now threatening Guam where a couple of FBM submarines are in port at all times ...
The best thing for Trump is for NK to make the first move and blow him out of the skies and the water and launch an all out attack.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't the POTUS have to get Congress to agree to a first strike? Would it be the entire US Congress or would just a few on the intelligence committee be enough?
About this threat of a preemptive strike in Guam, you shall ask yourself-if I remove the way Kim talks and behave in his country, are he capable to do such a thing ? Are he aware of the response if he should do such a thing ?
About the first question I can't say for sure
Second question-He does know that there will be a hard response.
I can't see that Kim & Co is really pressed not yet. I have a feeling that he has a backdoor, a backdoor named China, who will give NK aid and other things. meaning - these embargo and sanction will not have the impact our Western leaders have hoped.
Markus
Platapus
08-09-17, 01:52 PM
If Kim launches one of his missiles at Guam won't the island tip over?
Platapus
08-09-17, 02:08 PM
I've never been optimistic even when we had better leaders (Clinton, Bush). Everyone seems content to issue warnings and declare NK will not be allowed to have nukes without actually doing anything other than making treaties that NK easily breaks without significant consequences.
The problem is that there is not a lot of ways to prevent a country from developing nuclear weapons.
We can try to convince them that it is in their best interest not to develop nuclear weapons or we can bribe them, but in either case they would have to decide not to develop nuclear weapons. We can't force them to make that decision
We can talk to the other nuclear powers and persuade them not to share their nuclear technology with North Korea but that won't prevent them from developing nuclear weapons themselves. Again, we can't force the other nuclear powers not to share.
We can attempt to destroy the North Korean capability of developing nuclear weapons. That is not easy to do without destroying most of the country. North Korea is pretty rude and still refuses to concentrate their nuclear weapon development capability in isolated but clearly labeled buildings. It is not only dispersed but deeply underground.
Besides what better motivation for developing nuclear weapons can there be besides the threat from us that if you are developing nuclear weapons we will attack you. That just motivates them to develop nuclear weapons faster.
So while it is easy to blame past administrations, especially ones of of the other party, there really is nothing we could have done to prevent North Korea from developing nuclear weapons. The best we can do now is convince then that they should not use them.
There is simply no way we can convince North Korea that their possessing nuclear weapons is not in their best interest when it is clear that it IS in their best interest to have nuclear weapons.
Nuclear weapons are still one of the best defensive weapons ever devised.
As Plato once said "Do not forbid that which you lack the power to prohibit.
We need to ratchet back the rhetoric against North Korea. Let him rant.
Kim needs to appear to his people to be standing up to the US... let him If we challenge him on this we risk pushing him into a political corner. The last thing we need to do is put Kim into a position where he feels he as nothing else to lose. Then we all lose.
Kim Jong Un is a little dog yapping and snapping in a little yard surrounded by bigger dogs. He is not going anywhere. But on the other hand, you don't want to go into that yard and push him into a corner.
This is not a time for decisions to be based on national pride.
Skybird
08-09-17, 04:05 PM
Once Kim has nuclear ICBMs, he is not only untouchable, but can blackmail and raise troubles as he pleases, he has card blanche then.
Carthaginem esse delendam. Nunciam. If the Japanese are right, then time can run out just any day now.
Once Kim has nuclear ICBMs, he is not only untouchable, but can blackmail and raise troubles as he pleases, he has card blanche then.
Carthaginem esse delendam. Nunciam. If the Japanese are right, then time can run out just any day now.
I thought that NK already had ICBM, since some month back ? And from what i remember mentioned in this thread NK have probably increased the nukes so they fit inside the top of the ICBM.
Blackmail and raise troubles... Someone wrote that we should not press Kim Into a corner where he sees no other way out than start a war.
If Kim does as you wrote, then he are pressing other countries into a corner, where they see no other way out than a preemptive strike on NK.
(Some thoughts from an amateur)
Markus
Skybird
08-09-17, 04:44 PM
Kim already has nuclear bombs/devices since quite some time. Since years. We know that from international seismographic analysis when they tested their "toys".
His missiles however had not gotten the leg to reach out for the Northamerican continent so far - until now. In two or three years it could - it will - be Europe as well. China seems to have had a major hand in boosting the speed of the Northkorean development recently, maybe Russia as well.
He then had to miniaturize the nuclear bomb so that they fit on the tip of a long range missile. That then is called an ICBM, an intercontinental ballistic missile with nuclear warhead.
The endless appeasers and always reasonable oh so concerned philantropists assumed that NK still is some time away form miniaturizing the warheads for the needs of an ICBM. They never said however what to do once we would have been there. They hoped that this time would be delayed endlessly into the future, so that they could avoid forming tough decisions themselves - or would not be needed to explain their people why nuclear blackmail by a nuclear armed NKorea all of a sudden has become acceptable for the US and the West.
Japanese sources in the defence ministry now revealed that according to their information the Koreans are extremely close to completing their ICBM, much closer than was hoped by said philantropists.
Kim'S record of deeds and crimes, and that of his whole regime and the regime before him, is known. How anyone still could bet his money on him being reasonable and responsible and interested in the wellbeing of mankind, is beyond me. Such people to me are simply insane and dangerous.
There is a story from WWII that even got repeated in several novels, that famous it is . That is that when the first photographic evidence for the existence of Nazi death camps in Poland got smuggled to England, the representative of the British government should have said something like that he could not believe his eyes. When being asked whether he wanted to say by that that the photos are forged, he should have said that No, he did not believe somebody intentionally forged them or that they did not show the truth - only that he could not believe what his eyes were telling him, it was too horrific.
Thats is the attitude many Westerners are caught in today. They simply cannot imagine that somebody could be so insane that he intentionally presses the red button, or risks to have his country and people annihilated, or becomes a state leader without indeed being insane. Even when you tell them that Hitler ticked like this, and others as well - they refuse to learn the lesson. They just refuse to learn the lesson. They do not want to understand how nasty and dirty the world can be, and they think they collect heavenly scoring points for the afterlife if believing in the good of all men. Even in the good in the Hitlers and Kims, Saddams and Stalins of this world.
How infantil. I dispise such attitude to the max. It makes me sick.
About 10 minutes ago I heard an military expert on Asia and NK saying on Danish news. In June NK fired two missiles, which later was
known(not correct word, but I forgot the word I had in mind) as ICBM.
He is not the only one saying these things about NK having or not having ICBM
Markus
Gargamel
08-09-17, 05:29 PM
We can talk to the other nuclear powers and persuade them not to share their nuclear technology with North Korea but that won't prevent them from developing nuclear weapons themselves. Again, we can't force the other nuclear powers not to share.
It's well beyond the point of not sharing. Yes, getting the expertise needed to make nuclear reastors or weapons is a huge accelerant to any program, but even if you don't have access to people or organizations that have already been there, there is always the library. The technology to make nuclear material is very simple, on paper, and is well documented publicly. It's just refining the process to get it right is what takes the time. So withholding the info just slows down a determined party. With enough money and resources and being left alone long enough :03:, even an individual has the ability to start their own nuc program.
NK is now threatening Guam where a couple of FBM submarines are in port at all times ...
The best thing for Trump is for NK to make the first move and blow him out of the skies and the water and launch an all out attack.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't the POTUS have to get Congress to agree to a first strike? Would it be the entire US Congress or would just a few on the intelligence committee be enough?
Good question with a tricky answer. Due to The War Powers Act passed in 1973 by Congress in an effort to curtail then President Nixon's ability to unilaterally to act militarily without prior counsel with or consent of Congress, the President does have a relatively wide degree of latitude regarding military action, but the extent of that latitude has been open to debate for a long time:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_Powers_Resolution
(Nixon vetoed the Act when it was passed, but Congress overwhelmingly overrode the veto.)
I would think (and hope) any possible use of US nuclear armaments would be subject to at least review by Congress, but, with the yahoo in the Oval Office, who knows; it is difficult to gauge the possible actions of someone who, during his campaign for office, repeatedly claimed he knew more than any of the US military's generals...
<O>
Rockstar
08-09-17, 09:56 PM
NK is now threatening Guam where a couple of FBM submarines are in port at all times ...
The best thing for Trump is for NK to make the first move and blow him out of the skies and the water and launch an all out attack.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't the POTUS have to get Congress to agree to a first strike? Would it be the entire US Congress or would just a few on the intelligence committee be enough?
Mr Quatro doctrines regarding U.S. nuclear first strikes are already in place and at times they are changed to meet current needs. I seriously doubt that any desire to use such weapons will be made into a public spectacle between houses of government.
IMO the decision to launch will be in accordance with those doctrines and if its going to happen we will be the last to know.
ikalugin
08-10-17, 05:52 AM
And why not others dont seem to have no problem selling NK everthing need to arm themselves with nuclear weapons.
I vote we equip Japan an South Korea with nuclear weapons immediately.
You probably mix up Iran and DPRK?
As to Japan and ROK, them going nuclear, especially Japan, would be messy (because everyone in the region hates Japan). Not that Japan could not start their own nuclear program with their developed nuclear industry.
ikalugin
08-10-17, 05:55 AM
I repeat: there ahve been reports saying that the Nkorean quick advances in their program would not have been possible without help from Russia or China, and that the equipment used in those missile developnments and as carrier platforms, bases on Chinese material. Anything specific post 1991?
Once Kim has nuclear ICBMs, he is not only untouchable, but can blackmail and raise troubles as he pleases, he has card blanche then. I disagree - ICBMs unlike research and produciton fascilitiies is something you can counter. DPRK would need a strong ICBM force (on the scale of PRCs') to penetrate the BMD of CONUS or the new -totally actually not against Russia- European BMD.
Jimbuna
08-10-17, 08:55 AM
Well, either way, matters should come to some sort of conclusion in the next few days or so.
North Korea says a plan that could see it fire four missiles near the US territory of Guam will be ready in a matter of days.
State media said Hwasong-12 rockets would pass over Japan and land in the sea about 30km (17 miles) from Guam, if the plan was approved by Kim Jong-un.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-40883372
I'd much rather said launch did not happen but if it did, I'm wondering if the capability is out there/in a prepared position to shoot them down.
Schroeder
08-10-17, 08:55 AM
Once Kim has nuclear ICBMs, he is not only untouchable
The Kims have been untouchable ever since China became their big buddy in the 1950ies....
Skybird
08-10-17, 09:30 AM
The Kims have been untouchable ever since China became their big buddy in the 1950ies....
No, untouchable they were not - just that the costs for touching them were considered to be too high when seeing that the possible gains were what they were: not compensating enough. But today, the stakes are much higher, and I doubt that China would go to nuclear war with the US if the Us strikes Korea. They want Korea as a sting in the US' pacific flank. They do not want Chinese cities being wiped out over Korea. Bejing is a tough political opponent, but rational. Pyöngyang is inhumane, and not rational at all. A rabied dog. Kim is trying to hold a razorknife at America's throat, right over the carotid, and he says he wants to cut it. No major power of imperial status with a selfunderstanding like the US has can afford to ignore that and let it go by unanswered.
Furthermore I consider that North Korea must be destroyed.
Mr Quatro
08-10-17, 10:37 AM
As to Japan and ROK, them going nuclear, especially Japan, would be messy (because everyone in the region hates Japan). Not that Japan could not start their own nuclear program with their developed nuclear industry.
Japan's best kept secret is that they already have a nuclear weapons program, for defense only of course ... they just don't advertise it the way NK does.
Look how long it took for the world to find out that Israel had nuclear weapons to defend itself. :yep:
There's one thing I'm asking myself-If Kim does as he has said he would and send some ICBM with nukes against Guam or some other states nearby.
Will USA response with same type of weapon or will they use conventional weapons ? Or a combination of both, where the highest nuke strength they will be using is 30-40 kiloton.
Markus
Rockstar
08-10-17, 12:29 PM
Honestly I imagine it all depends on which way the wind is blowing. But id probably bet on a conventional retaliation coupled with minimal tactical nuclear strikes rather than wiping out the entire peninsula and outlying areas.
Anyway from what Ive read and contrary to popular belief it takes two to authorize a nuclear launch. The presidential football simply confirms the presidents identity to the second person, it doesnt contain any launch codes.
Skybird
08-10-17, 01:09 PM
There's one thing I'm asking myself-If Kim does as he has said he would and send some ICBM with nukes against Guam or some other states nearby.
Will USA response with same type of weapon or will they use conventional weapons ? Or a combination of both, where the highest nuke strength they will be using is 30-40 kiloton.
Markus
Not even me expects NK to fire at Guam a nukle right now, in some days. The tlak was of "just some missiles". A plan will be set out by the army, sdays their propaganda TV, and that plan will be finished in a coupe of days and then will laid before the great vleader for approval (or non-approval). Boy, do the yreally hope to win a war with planning times like this....? LOL
You question. Would I take it queer if you take a shotgun, aim it at me, and then fire it 30 cm before my feet into the ground?
You better bet I would. And I assume the US would as well. I also assume that any major power with at least some remaining self-esteem would react much more pissed than I would be. If it would not, it could as well say Sajonara to its stand and reputation in world history, as a major power. The US, if it wants to be taken serious any longer, could not afford to let such a provocation go by unanswered. Not if it wants to continue being taken serious in the region.
Furthermore, I consider that North Korea must be destroyed.
Platapus
08-10-17, 02:09 PM
Lemme get this straight
When the US flies its bombers toward North Korea and turn back near the boarding airspace that's acceptable because we are are staying in international zones. When we deploy naval forces withing striking distance of North Korea it's just a training exercise and North Korea is over reacting.
But if the North Koreans just talks about launching an unarmed missile that lands in international waters that's a provocation? :doh:
Both sides need to ratchet down the sabre rattling. Like children playing with grownup tools, someone is going to get hurt.
Rockstar
08-10-17, 02:26 PM
Ya but they started it. lol. But honestly how about if they ratchet it down, Im tired of being the tolerant one. If they want to continue making threats then Im all for pushing the button to shut'em up.
Another thing, while reading Skybird response on my comments.
Have anyone of us never thought that this threat on sending missiles/ICBM towards Guam is nothing more than aggressive propaganda-The way Kim and NK talk.
I would be highly surprised if NK did fire these 4 missiles/ICBM against Guam. If they does it, the missiles/ICBM will only fly half the way and land somewhere in the Pacific.
The next question is, what kind of response will JP come up with
If I have seen correctly the missiles/ICBM has to pass JP airspace
Markus
Skybird
08-10-17, 02:41 PM
Lemme get this straight
When the US flies its bombers toward North Korea and turn back near the boarding airspace that's acceptable because we are are staying in international zones. When we deploy naval forces withing striking distance of North Korea it's just a training exercise and North Korea is over reacting.
But if the North Koreans just talks about launching an unarmed missile that lands in international waters that's a provocation? :doh:
Both sides need to ratchet down the sabre rattling. Like children playing with grownup tools, someone is going to get hurt.
Revealing to a bully that you are armed (by drawing your pistol or even just lifting your jacket, or having a parade, or driving a ship through a water street), is one thing. Firing a live shot into the wall close beside the others' head, is something very different. - Even the laws in my and your country make this difference, as far as I know. The law differentiates between announcing that you are armed, pulling a weapon but keeping it down, and aiming with that weapon.
Their missiles are announced by them to fall short of Guam. If they malfunction, the fly 30km further, and hit. And in their first flight phase, they penetrate Japanese space. If they malfunction there, they impact on Japanese soil. Or in a Japanese city.
Earlier this month it was reported that an Air France airliner was missed by one of their missile test flights some weeks ago.
You can gamble with your own life. Do not claim the right to gamble with the life of others not being you or your own family. You do not have that right.
Furthermore, I consider that North Korea must be destroyed.
Skybird
08-10-17, 02:47 PM
Another thing, while reading Skybird response on my comments.
Have anyone of us never thought that this threat on sending missiles/ICBM towards Guam is nothing more than aggressive propaganda-The way Kim and NK talk.
I would be highly surprised if NK did fire these 4 missiles/ICBM against Guam. If they does it, the missiles/ICBM will only fly half the way and land somewhere in the Pacific.
The next question is, what kind of response will JP come up with
If I have seen correctly the missiles/ICBM has to pass JP airspace
Markus
I beoleive those threat shots too only when I see them happening. And yes, Kim poulls such stunts all the btime and boasts with words and uses rethoric. But so far only because he had no nuclear ICBMs. Once he has them, nobody can afford anymore to take his word in a relaxed laid-back manner.
The missiles shots at Guam also would not be armed nuclear, if the shots fiored are not meant to start a real war. novbody wastes nuclear warheads just to sink them in the ocean.
The rnage his missiles have. Nulcear devices he has. Its now only about making the latter so small that they match on the tip of a missile. And Japan says that final completion of their task is imminent.
Furthermore, I consider that North Korea must be destroyed.
I beoleive those threat shots too only when I see them happening. And yes, Kim poulls such stunts all the btime and boasts with words and uses rethoric. But so far only because he had no nuclear ICBMs. Once he has them, nobody can afford anymore to take his word in a relaxed laid-back manner.
The missiles shots at Guam also would not be armed nuclear, if the shots fiored are not meant to start a real war. novbody wastes nuclear warheads just to sink them in the ocean.
The rnage his missiles have. Nulcear devices he has. Its now only about making the latter so small that they match on the tip of a missile. And Japan says that final completion of their task is imminent.
Furthermore, I consider that North Korea must be destroyed.
Someone wrote in this thread that he hoped NK would make the first strike thereby giving Trump a go-ahead and erase NK from the planet. A FB friend is fearing the same, that NK will do as they has said they would
I believe when the Intelligent Service in JP/US and other countries see there is about 96-99 % chance he will fire these missiles, USA will make an Preemptive strike of some sort. Or will they put their trust on that these missiles will fall in the sea near Guam or between JP and Guam ? Or if they have Guam as end station the air defense can take on these missiles.
Markus
President Donald Trump has warned North Korea it should be "very, very nervous" if it does anything to the US.
He said the regime would be in trouble "like few nations have ever been" if they do not "get their act together".
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-40894529
War of words hotting up. :hmmm:
Skybird
08-10-17, 04:06 PM
Someone wrote in this thread that he hoped NK would make the first strike thereby giving Trump a go-ahead and erase NK from the planet. A FB friend is fearing the same, that NK will do as they has said they would
I believe when the Intelligent Service in JP/US and other countries see there is about 96-99 % chance he will fire these missiles, USA will make an Preemptive strike of some sort. Or will they put their trust on that these missiles will fall in the sea near Guam or between JP and Guam ? Or if they have Guam as end station the air defense can take on these missiles.
Markus
The problem is that air defences can fail and anti-missile-missiles can miss. The latter do so not even rarely. A kill probability of 90% means that on avergae every tenth shot will miss.
Also, a missile can be destroyed in flight - and still do damage on the ground on impact. Quite some of the Iraqui Scuds fired in the second Gulf war and brought down by Patriot fire, did even greater damage on the ground than they would have done if their warheads would have exploded. The debris scattered like ammunition from a shotgun and covered a bigger area.
Too much trust is put into these misskile defence systems, for my taste. I want to sit at the receiving end of a destroyed missile only if I were situated in a really hard-hardened shelter. And if the missile swarm coming in is nuclear armed, then a shot-down quota of 90% all of a sudden sounds incredibly bad. It takes just one nuclear explosion to ruin your day. I want a 100% quota, therefore. And that can only be had by denying the enemy the ability to fire one in the first. Either cut off his head or his hands, or take the weapon away from him.
the reason why the Sovjets never did take Reagan's Star Wars program serious was that they knew that cost efficiency was on their side. It is easier and cheaper to flood a defense area with more "dumb" missiles than the counter-missile defence can bring down, or than to develope, maintain, and rearm a system called Star Wars and make it fail-safe (if that even can be achieved, which I severly doubt). The tests of such systems in America in recent years, produced many fails - under ideal laboratory conditions already, and then against just one single incoming vampyre. How is that under conditions of war, with not one but hunderds of missiles comming in simulatenously...??? Heavy jamming? Human stress? Simulataneous cyber attacks, subsystems and units in the field having suffered losses, or not being replenished in time? Too little early warning time? technical hickups? Communication breakdowns? Or an EMP weapon fired first?
This is why I am so unforgiving about NKorean nukes (and Iranian ones). "Star Wars" is for the one, single, isolated stray-off ICBM. Not for swarms of missiles.
Furthermore, I consider that North Korea must be destroyed.
ikalugin
08-10-17, 04:42 PM
Japan's best kept secret is that they already have a nuclear weapons program, for defense only of course ... they just don't advertise it the way NK does.
Apart from the obvious reason why you could not hide an advanced nuclear weapons program (tests), in case of Japan (when compared to say DPRK) it is very hard for them to have a covert nuclear program because their nuclear industry is very open (to international observers) and is well regulated.
(and Japanese are not very good at secrecy nowadays)
Platapus
08-10-17, 08:11 PM
Today marks the 72nd anniversary of an event that could be considered the start of this whole Korean mess.
I have a half facetious hypothesis that if there is a messed up place in the world, if you delve into its history you will find a British guy, a map, and a pencil arbitrarily drawing a border. In many cases it has proven true.
But the event of 10 Aug 1945 refutes that hypothesis slightly. In this case it was not a Brit, but two Americans with a pencil and a map .... of Korea.
The following is an abbreviated synopsis of what happened.
As WWII was ending the Soviet Union and the Americans were in agreement about what was going to happen with Korea. Neither Japan nor China would get it, nor would it be left alone to be gobbled up by either. There was no way the Soviet Union would allow the US to control all of Korea and there was no way that the Americans would allow the Soviet Union to control all of Korea, so it was tentatively agreed that the two nations would split Korea into two areas with the good guys on one side and the bad guys on the other side. But where the actual division would be was TBD.
On 10 Aug 45 two US army officers Dean Rusk and Charles Bonesteel were ordered to designate the division. There was little expectation that the Soviets would accept this so it was just an initial negotiating point.
Neither Rusk nor Bonesteel had any experience with Korea and its culture or history, nor did they consult any Korean experts or anyone from Korea. They did know that they wanted Seoul to be in the South portion.
So they took an old National Geographic map of Korea and roughly measured out two somewhat equal size portions of land. This incidentally fell on the 38th parallel. which matched a previous agreement concerning the disposition of Soviet forces.
Since Korea is more a NW/SE oriented country, they slanted their division line SW/NE.
They did not consider geography, population nor culture in this division. It was just a line for initial negotiations.
It came as a surprise when the Soviets accepted this division line. The US really expected a dispute.
Unknown to Rusk and Bonesteel, The Russian Empire in 1905 had negotiated with Japan about dividing Korea and independently came up with a similar division of a slanted line around the 38th parallel.
So this spur of the moment initial draft suddenly became a fact.
Korea was divided, but hardly equally. While the general land masses were similar, the geography was very different. North Korea had most of the mountains and the minerals and the South had the most of the arable fields.
The south had approximately twice the population of the North. But the majority of the Japanese nuclear weapon program facilities were in the North and that was a very attractive prize for the Soviets.
So two guys just drew a line on a map with no real research on what they were doing or what the effect might be was a big starter in this North/South Korean issue. What could possibly go wrong?
I might have to modify my hypothesis to read a foreigner with a map and a pencil making arbitrary borders. :D
Platapus
08-10-17, 08:26 PM
If I have seen correctly the missiles/ICBM has to pass JP airspace
Markus
That would depend on the altitude of the missiles in the boost phase once they pass over the Territorial border of Japan.
Strange as it may seem, there is no internationally recognized vertical boundaries of airspace sovereignty.
It is pretty much agreed that above 100km sovereignty ends and it is pretty much agreed that below 30km is sovereign. But where between 30 and 100km is the official line of sovereignty has not been set... at least not internationally accepted.
The flight profile of the Hwasong 12 is pretty steep
https://s16-us2.ixquick.com/cgi-bin/serveimage?url=http%3A%2F%2Ft0.gstatic.com%2Fimage s%3Fq%3Dtbn%3AANd9GcSbTyolMCTO0bWmavVpJL-WLqeVcU2lJR45_GGJETO4WVlKSHdY&sp=5416efbd24e99f20bb252c8c3bf51dea&anticache=792754
By the time it passes the Japanese territorial limits, it may be above the 100km point. It all depends on how the Koreans configure the flight profile.
This source's computer models have the H-12 missile reaching 200km three minutes after launch
http://www.38north.org/2017/05/hwasong051917/
But again, it depends on how they choose the flight profile.
North Korea hasn't shown that they have developed a nose cone on their missiles that can stand the heat of reentry. Till then, their warheads won't survive the reentry phase.
Platapus
08-11-17, 07:15 AM
North Korea hasn't shown that they have developed a nose cone on their missiles that can stand the heat of reentry. Till then, their warheads won't survive the reentry phase.
That is one of many aspects of weaponizing nuclear weapons that North Korea has not demonstrated the ability of having.
There are many very difficult steps between going from having a nuclear device to having a nuclear weapon that can be use on a rocket.
Jimbuna
08-11-17, 07:17 AM
The POTUS is 'tweeting' again.
President Donald Trump says the US military is "locked and loaded" to deal with North Korea, ramping up the rhetorical brinkmanship.
"Military solutions are now fully in place, locked and loaded, should North Korea act unwisely. Hopefully Kim Jong-un will find another path!" he tweeted.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-40901746
Mr Quatro
08-11-17, 08:51 AM
Some of you don't understand the oriental mind ... Fat boy Kim has promised to send four (4) long range missiles towards Guam (a US protected territory) with 7,000 military men and women stationed there.
He has even stated when they are going to do this, sometime during the middle of August. They fully intend to do what they say they are going to do.
For NK to back down now would be a loss of face ... they think the world will be on there side due to it's claim that they are just testing for the day that NK would be able to do the same thing with nuclear tipped missiles launched against the USA proper.
Trump has not spoken ill-rationally ... he fully intends to respond to NK threat and destroy NK ability to launch anymore missiles using EMP bombs with B-1, B-2 and B-52 bombers and 100's of tomahawks fired from surface and submarine launched subs and ships.
No nukes will be used unless Kim does get one off, which I doubt any electronics needed to complete that process will still be available. That leaves a ground war with South Korea in his war path.
I hope he gives in or gives up, but I don't think he will until he is dead. Surely a large sum of money offered to do him in would work better than letting him rant and rave at our side anymore.
The war drums are beating like they were between UK and Argentina.
I'm watching all of this happen just like y'all from my arm chair :yep:
Jimbuna
08-11-17, 09:19 AM
An article dating back to 2013 regarding NK's EMP capability.
https://www.extremetech.com/extreme/170563-north-korea-emp
Rockstar
08-11-17, 10:46 AM
I wonder how much of this, as Skybird says 'thunderstorm of words' we hear everyday is infiltrating the DPRK? Is this thundestorm meant to encourage a coup d etat?
ikalugin
08-11-17, 10:48 AM
https://missilethreat.csis.org/missile-defense-2020/
I think people need to reread this.
That is one of many aspects of weaponizing nuclear weapons that North Korea has not demonstrated the ability of having.
There are many very difficult steps between going from having a nuclear device to having a nuclear weapon that can be use on a rocket.
Oh I agree with that! I can't imagine what is involved in putting a warhead on a missile. Including the safe guards needed to keep the warhead from exploding prematurely! The sudden jolt from the ignition of the rockets could set it off. Would serve him right if it exploded right on the launch pad!
Skybird
08-11-17, 11:53 AM
Today marks the 72nd anniversary of an event that could be considered the start of this whole Korean mess.
I have a half facetious hypothesis that if there is a messed up place in the world, if you delve into its history you will find a British guy, a map, and a pencil arbitrarily drawing a border. In many cases it has proven true.
But the event of 10 Aug 1945 refutes that hypothesis slightly. In this case it was not a Brit, but two Americans with a pencil and a map .... of Korea.
The following is an abbreviated synopsis of what happened.
As WWII was ending the Soviet Union and the Americans were in agreement about what was going to happen with Korea. Neither Japan nor China would get it, nor would it be left alone to be gobbled up by either. There was no way the Soviet Union would allow the US to control all of Korea and there was no way that the Americans would allow the Soviet Union to control all of Korea, so it was tentatively agreed that the two nations would split Korea into two areas with the good guys on one side and the bad guys on the other side. But where the actual division would be was TBD.
On 10 Aug 45 two US army officers Dean Rusk and Charles Bonesteel were ordered to designate the division. There was little expectation that the Soviets would accept this so it was just an initial negotiating point.
Neither Rusk nor Bonesteel had any experience with Korea and its culture or history, nor did they consult any Korean experts or anyone from Korea. They did know that they wanted Seoul to be in the South portion.
So they took an old National Geographic map of Korea and roughly measured out two somewhat equal size portions of land. This incidentally fell on the 38th parallel. which matched a previous agreement concerning the disposition of Soviet forces.
Since Korea is more a NW/SE oriented country, they slanted their division line SW/NE.
They did not consider geography, population nor culture in this division. It was just a line for initial negotiations.
It came as a surprise when the Soviets accepted this division line. The US really expected a dispute.
Unknown to Rusk and Bonesteel, The Russian Empire in 1905 had negotiated with Japan about dividing Korea and independently came up with a similar division of a slanted line around the 38th parallel.
So this spur of the moment initial draft suddenly became a fact.
Korea was divided, but hardly equally. While the general land masses were similar, the geography was very different. North Korea had most of the mountains and the minerals and the South had the most of the arable fields.
The south had approximately twice the population of the North. But the majority of the Japanese nuclear weapon program facilities were in the North and that was a very attractive prize for the Soviets.
So two guys just drew a line on a map with no real research on what they were doing or what the effect might be was a big starter in this North/South Korean issue. What could possibly go wrong?
I might have to modify my hypothesis to read a foreigner with a map and a pencil making arbitrary borders. :D
The attempt to draw parallels to the splitting of ethnic groups by line-drawing in the ME, and by forcing together ideoliogy camps that do noit match, does not work here. You did not had that in case of the split of Germany, and you did not have that in Korea. What separates the South and the North, as it separated the East and the West of Germany, was not ethnciity, nor religion, but political ideology of those in power, and the dramatic differences in economic policies resulting from that. It were the Northkorean regime being responsible for the short supplies and lacking food that spelled esaster repeatedly.
I know it from first hand that the ethnic argument does not work that well inc ase of Korea becasue I once had tweo friends from soiuthkorea, who studied Germanistik in Germany. When we had one of the many histoir and poltical discussions at long nights around the kitchen table, they often were asked to tell about Korea, and they saw no reason why not to do so.
The major difference in both Koreas that decides everything else beyond, is not differfent tirbal cultures or ethncities or relgions, but - polticla dieology by the governments. Communism versus Capitalism. It was like this in Germany as well.
Of course it also became a proxy war between the major powers, too.
Interesting sidenote: until today, there is no peace treaty in place. Officially, formally, both Koreas still are at war with each other.
Aktungbby
08-11-17, 12:07 PM
There are many very difficult steps between going from having a nuclear device to having a nuclear weapon that can be use on a rocket.
http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2017/07/north-korea-missile-tests-170706081545433.html (http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2017/07/north-korea-missile-tests-170706081545433.html) https://cdn.theatlantic.com/assets/media/img/mt/2017/08/north_korea_RTX35VOE/lead_960.jpg?1501706420
Skybird
08-11-17, 12:09 PM
Yesterday media reports popped up that internally the US seems to assume that Northkorea already has functional nuclear missile warheads.
If true, then its already game over for the West anyway. As predicted, I would not be surprised. You do not launch a war against a nuclear power. Los Angeles is of much higher value than Pyöngyang.
I strongly assume that the show is over. Inm the future however, things will become much less instabile and predictable now. This event - nuclear armament if NK - should have never been allowed to happen. But the West is a childish kindergarten mistaking well-meant hopes with valid strategies. The big show of the future will the American-Chinese collision. And then America will pay the price for its shyness regarding Korea. Going into Iraq was so much more important...
ikalugin
08-11-17, 12:38 PM
The reports discuss DPRK having ~60 deliverable warheads?
If true, then its already game over for the West anyway. As predicted, I would not be surprised. You do not launch a war against a nuclear power. Los Angeles is of much higher value than Pyöngyang.
Depends on the US capability to conduct a valid first strike on said nuclear power.
Catfish
08-11-17, 12:50 PM
The longer the non-NK rest of the world waits... i wonder what China thinks about all that.
Skybird
08-11-17, 01:07 PM
The longer the non-NK rest of the world waits... i wonder what China thinks about all that.
China? Is digging sand, building beach castles - while US generals are busy with not getting fired for "anti-feminist resistance" against lowering the performance statistics of combat units with females in them. We must have completely lost our marbels. The data that van Creveld laid out in his book that I referred to last weeks, holds some devastating messages.
This is what I'm convinced of
If and when USA attack NK whether it's a preemptive strike or due to NK making real of the threats and send these 4 missiles/ICBM towards Guam
The President or some other in charge will draw a red line and see to its military:
This is a restricted area-No attacking are allowed, unless you are being attacked by some SAM or a SAM have locked onto you and you are only allowed to engage enemy fighter craft AFTER having made 110 % positive ID that it is a NK fighter Jet.
I would have done this, take every step to prevent a bomb, missile or other thing, which could by some mistake could hit and explode in China and kill innocent Chinese people.
As the President I know as long the war with NK goes, the chances for China getting involved increase, therefore it's important they don't get involved from start.
Markus
Skybird
08-11-17, 02:00 PM
I fear you are very unrealistic there, mapuc. Thats not how things get done.
Nor does it win you wars. You cannot expect to fight and surive, even win, if you have your hands bound on your back. And China - would not have been impressed.
Declare the combat zone (all of North Korea, surrounding waters, military approach lanes and travel routes for your logistics). Give neutrals some hours time to get out, then declare everything moving inside that area a valid target. You do not be picky in what SAMs to take out and what not, this is no basketball, a win 86:83 is not good enough: you want a 100: nil, if possible: for every basket the enemy scores, your buddies pay in life and blood for. 86 SAMs taken out but 83 attack fighters lost? With modern military numbers, not even the US can afford such loss ratios. You instead kill every defence you find - preferably BEFORE it gets a shot off at your buddies. Different to normal wars where you first take out air defence and then go after ground forces, you must simultaneously go after the nuclear armed weapon options of Korea from first hour on as well, so that they cannot get a single shot off. That is extremely difficult, and will likely cause own losses, with air defences still intact mostly. But what do they have those stealth airplanes for. And if China mucks up, you have to throw them a fist into the face the very first moment they show up, so that they get the message that they will start to loose own cities if they start to defend North Korea by n culear exchange. Brutality is the only way here. I do not think the Chinese will risk nuclear exchange with the US over North Korea. They are ambitious, but also rational. Not only Los Angeles is more worth than Pyöngyang: Hongkong and Shenzhen and Suhai are more valuable and costly to lose than Pyöngyang, too.
All this ^will not happen. The US have not even close the needed ammount of military capacities in the region around North Korea currently, and we see no American manouvering to bring massive reinforcements in. The carrier the Donald send some weeks ago, already is back in port again, I read. Just 6 B1's alone at Guam cannot win a war. You need the better part of the Pacific fleet if you want to do a sustained, ongoing offensive and also want to minimise the North's ability to pay back against South Korea as much as you can prevent it. Its about logistics, and stockpiles of smart ammo.
Once again the Donals speaks with thunder and fury. :D I only wonder whether he indeed speaks to Kim, as is claimed, or to his fanpool in the US who needs to be entertained.
THE_MASK
08-11-17, 09:18 PM
Imo China is telling North Korea what to do to provoke a war . China are the trouble makers imo .
Newsweek Exclusive: North Korean Missile Claims Are ‘a Hoax’ --
https://www.yahoo.com/news/newsweek-exclusive-north-korean-missile-163255839.html
Well, Trump has still got Venezuela as a political fallback...
<O>
Jimbuna
08-12-17, 08:03 AM
Perhaps the Chinese are beginning to recognise how potentially dangerous the situation is right now.
China's President Xi Jinping has urged Donald Trump and North Korea to avoid "words and actions" that worsen tensions, state media say.
Mr Trump and North Korea have been exchanging hostile rhetoric, with the US president threatening to rain "fire and fury" on the North.
But China, North Korea's only major ally, has been urging restraint.
A White House statement said the US and China agreed North Korea must stop "provocative and escalatory behaviour".
A statement by North Korea's official KCNA news agency issued on Saturday said the Trump administration "had better talk and act properly," if it did not want "the American empire to meet its tragic doom".
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-40909468
Rockstar
08-12-17, 08:42 AM
Every day China's influence and power in the region is expanding We are challenging them in the South Sea and now we're calling their bluff in the North. I say screw'em take it as far they want to go with it. Continue with freedom of navigation and military exercises.
Jimbuna
08-12-17, 08:56 AM
I'm actually beginning to feel that way as well....US credibility worldwide is starting to be sorely tested.
Rockstar
08-12-17, 09:18 AM
I'll be honest I kinda agree with the 'fire and fury' comment. probably scared the livin bejeesus out of them. As they were most likely expecting the usual modest and tolerant response. :har:
thereddaikon
08-12-17, 01:19 PM
I think China is starting to grow tired of North Korea. They were a valuable tool but now they seem to becoming a liability. Having a hermit state that is beholden to you act as a buffer to western influence is great. For a long time NK was harmless. China sold them enough weapons and aide to prevent them from collapsing but not enough to make them a real threat to anyone.
Now NK has nuclear weapons and is in a position to start a war on China's doorstep. They really don't want that. Especially if NATO forces are involved. It would put western influences right on their border and they would lose a lot of face. It would look like big mighty China can't take care of problems on their home turf.
As for NK I think there was a lot of underestimating going around on what they were capable of. Successfully making a nuke was unexpected. They aren't exactly good nukes and they can't fit them on smaller missiles yet but even having one is too much.
Yesterday Chinese state media said that if NK shoots first they won't intervene. They probably ran the numbers and decided getting involved wasn't worth it. Their navy is growing but isn't ready yet and a war now would set them back decades. Their long term goal is to have enough muscle to kick the US pacific fleet out of the area. They aren't ready for that.
If the bullets start flying the absolute best case scenario is the nuke is intercepted by Aegis or THAAD, and allied forces move in for a quick victory. Seals or Delta either apprehend or assassinate Kim and his people and we roll into Pyongyang ready to start the world's largest humanitarian mission. Things get a lot worse if the billions we've spent on ABM can't stop one crappy NK ICBM and Seoul or Tokyo gets nuked or if China comes to NK's aide. The nuke being successful is a possibility but I doubt China will get involved unless we do something that really pisses them off. Either way NK is done for and Kim is dead.
China has told NK that if you launch missiles at American territory, and the US strikes back, they are on their own. If the US and SK strike first, they will
intervene on behalf of NK.
http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/beijing-warns-pyongyang-you%E2%80%99re-on-your-own-if-you-go-after-the-united-states/ar-AApRvFv?li=BBnb7Kz&OCID=ansmsnnews11
"But will intervene if Washington strikes first"
Would this statement rule out a preemptive strike ?
´cause I could very well see Washington give order to do such a thing, when they see NK is fully prepared to launch their missiles against Guam.
Markus
Aktungbby
08-12-17, 06:26 PM
thereddaikon!:Kaleun_Salute:
Jimbuna
08-13-17, 06:50 AM
China has told NK that if you launch missiles at American territory, and the US strikes back, they are on their own. If the US and SK strike first, they will
intervene on behalf of NK.
http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/beijing-warns-pyongyang-you%E2%80%99re-on-your-own-if-you-go-after-the-united-states/ar-AApRvFv?li=BBnb7Kz&OCID=ansmsnnews11
That makes sense :yep:
Jimbuna
08-15-17, 05:56 AM
Looks like Kim was the first one to blink and has lost his battle in the war of words following the statement released by the Chinese (see post above).
The POTUS has won this round and a great many people can rest more easily for now.
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un reviewed plans to fire missiles towards the US Pacific territory of Guam but will hold off, state media said.
Although prepared for "the enveloping fire at Guam", the North said it would watch what "the foolish Yankees" do before taking a decision.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-40931775
Von Due
08-15-17, 06:03 AM
It's not hard to see NK has parked any plans on testing their might on Guam, or any other place, while "saving face". Another question is if the WH has the wits to see this as anything other than an increased threat or if they'll go out and proclaim a decisive victory in the war of words. I'll grab the popcorn...
Jimbuna
08-15-17, 08:04 AM
Hopefully they'll let matters rest now. The whole world (apart from NK) know who won (for want of a better word).
Mr Quatro
08-15-17, 11:18 AM
Looks like Kim was the first one to blink and has lost his battle in the war of words following the statement released by the Chinese (see post above).
The POTUS has won this round and a great many people can rest more easily for now.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-40931775
This is good news for all concerned :yep:
Now watch NK launch a missile from a submarine that lands in the middle of the Gulf of Alaska and say, "Oh so sorry we had technical mistake in missile re-entry" :o
Jimbuna
08-15-17, 12:21 PM
This is good news for all concerned :yep:
Now watch NK launch a missile from a submarine that lands in the middle of the Gulf of Alaska and say, "Oh so sorry we had technical mistake in missile re-entry" :o
Yeah, it'll be interesting to see if any medium range missiles are launched into the sea as has been the case in the past.
My own personal opinion is they will because Kim must save some of that loss of face and such launches won't be seen as attacks on the US or her allies and therefore he'll gamble that no retaliatory military measures would be forthcoming.
I'm also wondering how long the Chinese will maintain their current stance as well as how long the US can remain 'locked and loaded'.
Platapus
08-15-17, 02:23 PM
Besides Korea is already off Trump's short attention span. We are now going to invade Venezuela or some such nonsense.
What, he didn't want to invade Grenada again?... :03:
An interesting article from The Atlantic:
Why North Korea Walked Back Its Threat on Guam --
Signs of a conflict with the U.S. may have been overblown.
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2017/08/north-korea-guam/536952/
Still, it emerged that despite the president’s comments, the Trump administration had been engaged in regular back-channel diplomacy with Kim’s regime at the UN. The two sides—represented by Joseph Yun, the U.S. envoy for North Korea policy, and Pak Song Il, the North Korean diplomat at the UN mission—had been discussing U.S. citizens detained in North Korea as well as relations between the two countries. Meanwhile, Rex Tillerson, the U.S. secretary of state, and James Mattis, the defense secretary, in an op-ed in The Wall Street Journal said the U.S. wanted a diplomatic solution to the tensions, and insisted the U.S. wasn’t seeking regime change in the North.
<O>
Mr Quatro
08-15-17, 08:33 PM
I still think Trump made them blink, but that started last Saturday when North Korea released a Canadian pastor back to his home country. He said that he only found out 15 minutes before they released him that he was going home: http://www.cnn.com/2017/08/15/asia/canadian-pastor-hyeon-soo-lim-north-korea/index.html
But they still have three of ours in prison
At least three US citizens remain in North Korean custody.
Businessman Kim Dong-chul was detained in October 2015 and is serving a 10-year sentence for espionage.
Kim Sang-duk, an academic also known as Tony Kim, was detained in April and is accused of "hostile criminal acts," and researcher Kim Hak-song was detained in May and is also accused of "hostile acts."
Rockstar
08-15-17, 09:13 PM
Threatening another nation with violence using nuclear weapons has very far reaching implications and could open the door wide for preemptive strikes. Even last year Russia warned North Korea that the threats they were making could create a legal basis for the use of military force against that backwater crap hole country and quite possibly their weapons supplier. China obviously knew this too when they started to get their panties in a wad over a possible first strike by the U.S. :up:
ya just dont talk smack like that and expect to get away with it. threatening nuclear strikes no matter how capable is wrong and may get you and millions of others killed.
...
ya just dont talk smack like that and expect to get away with it. threatening nuclear strikes no matter how capable is wrong and may get you and millions of others killed.
Hey! ...and here I thought you were a Trump supporter!... :03::har:
<O>
Mr Quatro
08-15-17, 09:53 PM
Hey! ...and here I thought you were a Trump supporter!... :03::har:
<O>
I read it different that Rockstar is talking about the North Korean leader Kim Jong-un :yep:
Rockstar
08-15-17, 10:09 PM
Hey! ...and here I thought you were a Trump supporter!... :03::har:
<O>
I dont vote, never have. But I do support my president regardless of party ideology or affiliation they may belong too or practise. Im retired military I still get paid once a month for 'reduced service' which in a way still makes the president part of my chain of command.
I still support my chain of command and I still take my oath of enlistment to heart.
This country of mine comes before any party. Im pretty happy with my life and all that Ive done I have no reason to take a crap on others to feel better about myself.
Aktungbby
08-15-17, 10:41 PM
Even last year Russia warned North Korea that the threats they were making could create a legal basis for the use of military force against that backwater crap hole country and quite possibly their weapons supplier. Putin might thusly find that a convenient argument for his current territorial dispute in Ukraine-under the guise of aiding the US in cutting off rocket supplies to the rogue N. Korean state....::k_confused:Today's WSJ:
WASHINGTON—The rapid advance of North Korea’s intercontinental ballistic missile program has prompted questions about whether Kim Jong Un’s regime obtained Soviet-designed rocket engines illicitly from Ukraine or Russia.
The liquid-propellant rocket engines North Korea has been using in recent tests resemble the RD-250 and were probably acquired through illicit channels originating in Ukraine or Russia, where the complex rocket engine was designed, a report from the International Institute for Strategic Studies said Monday.
Michael Elleman, author of the report, said the single combustion-chamber version of the RD-250 rocket engine that resembles what the North Koreans are testing likely traces back to Ukraine’s Yuzhnoye State Design Office or Russia’s Energomash, two state defense companies involved in designing the engine in the past. Both defense contractors played critical roles in the Soviet Union’s ballistic missile program.
“The actual sourcing to me is still an open question,” Mr. Elleman, a missile expert, said in an interview. He said it was unlikely that either the Ukrainian or Russian governments had any knowledge about a rocket engine sale to North Korea and posited that Mr. Kim’s regime somehow obtained the engines through illicit networks.
Energomash didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.
Whether North Korea has the capacity to produce such rocket engines itself domestically is a matter of debate. Mr. Elleman believes it’s far more likely that Pyongyang somehow smuggled dozens of engines from a place such as Ukraine, where they may have been available in factories or storage facilities, given the complexity of the technology.
“The engine itself could fit into a box that’s one by one by two meters,” Mr. Elleman said. “They put them usually in wooden crates for protection. You could load them onto an aircraft, trains or even trucks.”
WASHINGTON—The rapid advance of North Korea’s intercontinental ballistic missile program has prompted questions about whether Kim Jong Un’s regime obtained Soviet-designed rocket engines illicitly from Ukraine or Russia.
The liquid-propellant rocket engines North Korea has been using in recent tests resemble the RD-250 and were probably acquired through illicit channels originating in Ukraine or Russia, where the complex rocket engine was designed, a report from the International Institute for Strategic Studies said Monday.
Michael Elleman, author of the report, said the single combustion-chamber version of the RD-250 rocket engine that resembles what the North Koreans are testing likely traces back to Ukraine’s Yuzhnoye State Design Office or Russia’s Energomash, two state defense companies involved in designing the engine in the past. Both defense contractors played critical roles in the Soviet Union’s ballistic missile program.
“The actual sourcing to me is still an open question,” Mr. Elleman, a missile expert, said in an interview. He said it was unlikely that either the Ukrainian or Russian governments had any knowledge about a rocket engine sale to North Korea and posited that Mr. Kim’s regime somehow obtained the engines through illicit networks.
Energomash didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.
Whether North Korea has the capacity to produce such rocket engines itself domestically is a matter of debate. Mr. Elleman believes it’s far more likely that Pyongyang somehow smuggled dozens of engines from a place such as Ukraine, where they may have been available in factories or storage facilities, given the complexity of the technology.
“The engine itself could fit into a box that’s one by one by two meters,” Mr. Elleman said. “They put them usually in wooden crates for protection. You could load them onto an aircraft, trains or even trucks.”
WASHINGTON—The rapid advance of North Korea’s intercontinental ballistic missile program has prompted questions about whether Kim Jong Un’s regime obtained Soviet-designed rocket engines illicitly from Ukraine or Russia.
The liquid-propellant rocket engines North Korea has been using in recent tests resemble the RD-250 and were probably acquired through illicit channels originating in Ukraine or Russia, where the complex rocket engine was designed, a report from the International Institute for Strategic Studies said Monday.
Michael Elleman, author of the report, said the single combustion-chamber version of the RD-250 rocket engine that resembles what the North Koreans are testing likely traces back to Ukraine’s Yuzhnoye State Design Office or Russia’s Energomash, two state defense companies involved in designing the engine in the past. Both defense contractors played critical roles in the Soviet Union’s ballistic missile program.
“The actual sourcing to me is still an open question,” Mr. Elleman, a missile expert, said in an interview. He said it was unlikely that either the Ukrainian or Russian governments had any knowledge about a rocket engine sale to North Korea and posited that Mr. Kim’s regime somehow obtained the engines through illicit networks.
Energomash didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.
Whether North Korea has the capacity to produce such rocket engines itself domestically is a matter of debate. Mr. Elleman believes it’s far more likely that Pyongyang somehow smuggled dozens of engines from a place such as Ukraine, where they may have been available in factories or storage facilities, given the complexity of the technology.
“The engine itself could fit into a box that’s one by one by two meters,” Mr. Elleman said. “They put them usually in wooden crates for protection. You could load them onto an aircraft, trains or even trucks.”
Such a transaction would explain why North Korea has advanced its missile program so quickly. Mr. Kim’s regime conducted two intercontinental ballistic missile tests last month, an indication that the country is rapidly approaching the ability to strike the continental U.S. with nuclear weapons.
North Korea has conducted five nuclear weapons tests since 2006.
The situation has created one of the most pressing national security challenges for President Donald Trump (https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-general-says-north-korea-threats-must-be-taken-seriously-1502717194), who has vowed to prevent Pyongyang from obtaining the capability to strike U.S. cities with nuclear weapons. Mr. Trump called on Mr. Kim last week to stop threatening the U.S. and said North Korea would face “fire and fury like the world has never seen.”
The New York Times (http://quotes.wsj.com/NYT) on Monday reported that U.S. investigators have focused on the possibility that North Korea executed black market purchases of rocket engines originating from the Yuzhmash factory, a Ukrainian state-owned rocket engine maker that produces models from the associated Yuzhnoye State Design Office. The focus of the U.S. investigators couldn’t be independently confirmed by The Wall Street Journal.
Yuzhmash is located in Dnipro, about 150 miles west of the front between Ukrainian troops and the Russian-backed separatists fighting in the country’s east. Formerly known as Dnipropetrovsk, Dnipro is on the Ukrainian government-controlled side of the line.
Yuzhmash denied any connection with the North Korean weapons program and said the report was “fantasies.”
“Yuzhmash has not produced military missiles or missile systems during the years of independence,” the company said, referring to Ukraine’s declaration of independence from the Soviet Union in 1991. It said that the company fully adheres to international missile non-proliferation agreements, and the only series-production engine it has exported in recent years was sent to Italy and could only be used for space exploration.
Mr. Elleman said it was unlikely the company’s officials would have known about any such deal with the North Koreans, suggesting instead the equipment could have been smuggled out of Ukraine by “rogue characters somewhere down the chain.”
Mr. Elleman, a former missile engineer, said it’s unclear how many engines the North Koreans obtained, but guessed the number was likely in the dozens because Mr. Kim’s government appears to feel comfortable expending them during tests.
“I’m very skeptical of claims about reverse engineering complex pieces of machinery like this engine,” said Mr. Elleman, noting that even U.S. technicians have been unable to duplicate some high-level rocket engines with roots in the Soviet era. “It’s very sophisticated,” he said.
Yuzhmash was for decades a hub for the Soviet ballistic-missile industry considered so important that the city it was located in was closed to foreigners.
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the company continued to work with Russia, but orders dried up after the Russia-Ukraine conflict began in 2014, and the company had to send some workers on unpaid leave.
Ukrainian government officials suggested the reports could be part of a campaign by Russia, which is covertly supporting a conflict in Ukraine’s east, to blacken its neighbor’s name.
“There is no basis for this information, it is inflammatory in content and, most likely, was instigated by Russia security services to cover up their own crimes," said Oleksandr Turchynov, secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council. :hmmm: https://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/BN-UD005_38h0Z_E_20170704062733.jpgConsidering https://sputniknews.com/world/201708021056103467-ukraine-united-states-lethal-weapons-supplies/ (https://sputniknews.com/world/201708021056103467-ukraine-united-states-lethal-weapons-supplies/) On Monday, the Wall Street Journal (https://www.wsj.com/articles/pentagon-offers-plan-to-arm-ukraine-1501520728) (WSJ) reported that the US defense and diplomatic establishment had devised a plan to supply lethal arms to Ukraine. The weapons, characterized as 'defensive', may include Javelin man-portable anti-tank missiles, anti-aircraft weapons, and other advanced arms.
The US Joint Chiefs of Staff and Defense Secretary James Mattis support the plan, and it now awaits the approval of President Trump, who has yet to be briefed on its details. Officials told WSJ that a final decision from the President could take as long as several months to secure. OUR one logistic hand does not know what the other is doing....
I read it different that Rockstar is talking about the North Korean leader Kim Jong-un :yep:
In this particular case, the description is apt of both parties, Trump and Kim; and Trump would probably agree, seeing how he is so eager to spread around the blame and responsibility for most everything...
I dont vote, never have. But I do support my president regardless of party ideology or affiliation they may belong too or practise. Im retired military I still get paid once a month for 'reduced service' which in a way still makes the president part of my chain of command.
I still support my chain of command and I still take my oath of enlistment to heart.
This country of mine comes before any party. Im pretty happy with my life and all that Ive done I have no reason to take a crap on others to feel better about myself.
As far as military service is concerned, no aspersions were made or intended and there is no proof of that being my intent; if there is any insult, it is on your part in trying to impugn my intent in order to advance your own weak arguments. Stand by your arguments on their own and don't try to prop them up by leaning them on honorable service or by wrapping them in the Flag; own your own ideas, good or bad...
Regarding others of the military brethren, some are very much not pleased with the characterizations presented by the thugs at the Right Rally:
White Supremacist In Charlottesville Wearing 82nd Airborne Hat Gets Called Out... By 82nd Airborne --
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/82nd-airborne-nazi-salute-charlottesville_us_5992ad61e4b08a247276f35e
Nazi In Charlottesville wearing 82nd Airborne Division cap condemned by 82nd Airborne Division --
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/charlottesville-nazi-82nd-airborne-division-condemned-racist-salute-d-day-white-supremacist-heil-a7894661.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/08/15/nazi-salute-protester-82nd-airborne-hat-gets-blasted-82nd/
As far as taking a crap on others, your continued snide remarks and attempts at belittlement of others who either do not share your views or attempt to provide proof to refute your posts is ample evidence you, in fact, seem to have no qualms about scatology...
<O>
Rockstar
08-16-17, 06:47 AM
Putin might thusly find that a convenient argument for his current territorial dispute in Ukraine-under the guise of aiding the US in cutting off rocket supplies to the rogue N. Korean state....::k_confused:Today's WSJ: :hmmm: https://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/BN-UD005_38h0Z_E_20170704062733.jpgConsidering https://sputniknews.com/world/201708021056103467-ukraine-united-states-lethal-weapons-supplies/ (https://sputniknews.com/world/201708021056103467-ukraine-united-states-lethal-weapons-supplies/) OUR one logistic hand does not know what the other is doing....
They might find it a good excuse and who knows it may very well be justified. But can they withstand the heat they'd catch from the court of world opinion if they did? As far as aiding Ukraine I think its a big mistake and a waste of resources. I dont doubt for a moment that a good amount of what we send them will probably just be sold on the black market to places like NK :roll:
https://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/BN-UD005_38h0Z_E_20170704062733.jpg
Look up in the sky, it's a bird, it's a plane -
"SPLAT!!". . . It's a bird!!
Aktungbby
08-16-17, 01:19 PM
https://media1.giphy.com/media/bihnwWzmlYHN6/200.gif#6-grid4TODAY's corrective WSJ update-posted in full for those w/o WSJ account: The U.S. believes that North Korea produces its own rocket engines rather than relying on foreign imports, a U.S. intelligence official said Tuesday.
The comments from the intelligence community come as experts have questioned (https://www.wsj.com/articles/north-korea-obtained-rocket-engines-on-black-market-report-says-1502740949) if Kim Jong Un’s regime obtained Soviet-designed rocket engines through illicit channels in Ukraine or Russia.
A report by the International Institute for Strategic Studies released Monday said the liquid-propellant rocket engines North Korea has used in recent tests resemble those originating from Soviet designs and theorized that North Korea had somehow illicitly purchased engines smuggled out of Russia or Ukraine.
“We have intelligence to suggest that North Korea is not reliant on imports of engines,” a U.S. intelligence official said Tuesday in response to the report. “Instead, we judge they have the ability to produce the engines themselves.”
The report’s author, Michael Elleman, said Tuesday that he remains skeptical that North Korea can produce engines of such sophistication on its own. Mr. Elleman said observations he made of the launch and trajectory of the missiles suggest they were of Soviet design. He inferred the missiles were imported to North Korea because Pyongyang lacked the expertise to build them unaided.
“One does not start by creating a new, powerful, efficient and reliable engine from thin air,” he said.
Mr. Elleman, a former missile engineer, pointed out that the U.S. has faced challenges refurbishing old Russian engines for space launches and that U.S. engineers cannot manufacture a Russian engine the U.S. continues to rely upon, despite two decades of work beside Russian engineers.
The intelligence official declined to comment further, but officials said the U.S. has been tracking North Korea’s program for a long time.
“The intelligence community has done remarkable work in understanding Kim Jong Un, watching his ballistic missile program develop, watching his nuclear weapons program continue to exceed,” CIA Director Mike Pompeo said Sunday on CBS (http://quotes.wsj.com/CBS.A) ’s “Face the Nation.” “The intelligence there is actually very good.”
The reports come as a standoff between the Trump administration and North Korea appears to have dissipated, at least for now. North Korea’s leader, Mr. Kim, on Tuesday backed off a threat to strike Guam and Secretary of State Rex Tillerson later reiterated that the U.S. is open to talks with Pyongyang, provided it takes certain steps to de-escalate.
“We continue to be interested in finding a way to get to dialogue, but that’s up to him,” Mr. Tillerson told reporters at the State Department, referring to Mr. Kim. How reassuring that Russian copies of rockets, with Chinese electronics, are no longer dependent on Ukrainian copied engines...:Kaleun_Sleep:I'll surely sleep the sleep of the saved! :O:...and thank WSJ's columnist, Felicia Schwartz, for keeping me posted! https://media3.giphy.com/media/TugSqq8mZyuiI/giphy.gif
^Dr Kimlove? :hmmm:
https://img.wonkette.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/bigboard.jpg
Mr President, fat boy Kim can see the big board, they have TV in North Korea now.
Then this must be Slim Kim, or is it Kim Pickins!!:hmmm:
https://media3.giphy.com/media/TugSqq8mZyuiI/giphy.gif
Mr Quatro
08-16-17, 08:59 PM
How reassuring that Russian copies of rockets, with Chinese electronics, are no longer dependent on Ukrainian copied engines...:Kaleun_Sleep:I'll surely sleep the sleep of the saved! :O:...and thank WSJ's columnist, Felicia Schwartz, for keeping me posted!
This is all new to me ... this information of outside help to produce missiles that can hit the USA actually coming from Russia or the Ukraine.
If true then this is how NK has become so cocky in that they couldn't do it on their own, but have been able to reach their goals much sooner.
We the people are the last to know this ... surely the CIA and the powers that investigate these things already knew about it during the Obama administration.
Are you with me so far?
Then why wouldn't the Russian Federation help Iran with the same development (for money of course)? If not Russia what would keep NK from helping Iran with missile development?
We are seeing the surface of the problems while the FBI, CIA, NSA and other investigation ministries have to see the whole scope of things to inform the president. It's like a match out there ready to strike,
We may only have a few more years of peace the way we know it. Fear is a bad thing ... being ready is a smart thing. :yep:
Perhaps we should listen to Sky more on how to stay off the credit/banking grid ... maybe, uh?
Buddahaid
08-16-17, 11:53 PM
If it comes to the apocalypse I will only need one bullet.
My luck in the foot!!:doh:
Jimbuna
08-18-17, 10:34 AM
I'm thinking NK's next act of defiance might be to detonate a bomb underground.
Skybird
08-18-17, 11:30 AM
I'm thinking NK's next act of defiance might be to detonate a bomb underground.
That would be extremely defiant indeed, even for Kim's derranged standards. :timeout:
https://rita786.files.wordpress.com/2011/01/063-underground_roundel_sign_at_epping.jpg?w=490&h=363
Aktungbby
08-18-17, 11:40 AM
Kim's derranged standards.
I'm thinking NK's next act of defiance might be to detonate a bomb underground. Fatboy would do well to do so; his aboveground 'Big bang theory' has not been exactly stellar: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ryongchon_disaster (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ryongchon_disaster) <April 22, 2004 or: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ryanggang_explosion (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ryanggang_explosion) <9 September 2004. Whichever version: as there was no fallout it was probably not nuclear....:hmmm: Since KimmyBBY cannot be insane and keep his head in a country like N. Korea:/\\chop:rotfl2: his actions continue to impress me that he is the mineshaft canary for China to test Western RIMPAC resolve by any means especially as the illegal expansion into Tibet and the South China Sea are still #1 on China's longterm economic expansion agenda. Our distracted immediate focus on N. Korea thus serves China's long-term interests. Continued US presence on the Korean peninsula is distinctly antithetical to that geopolitical interest, much as Cuba, and egotistical Castro, was the patsy in the 60's missile crises test of the Monroe Doctrine. In that matter, we owe one to Mr Mikoyan: Khrushchev feared that Castro's hurt pride and widespread Cuban indignation over the concessions he had made to Kennedy might lead to a breakdown of the agreement between the Soviet Union and the US. To prevent that, Khrushchev decided to offer to give Cuba more than 100 tactical nuclear weapons that had been shipped to Cuba along with the long-range missiles but, crucially, had escaped the notice of U.S. intelligence. Khrushchev determined that because the Americans had not listed the missiles on their list of demands, keeping them in Cuba would be in the Soviet Union's interests.
Anastas Mikoyan (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anastas_Mikoyan) was tasked with the negotiations with Castro over the missile transfer deal that was designed to prevent a breakdown in the relations between Cuba and the Soviet Union. While in Havana, Mikoyan witnessed the mood swings and paranoia of Castro, who was convinced that Moscow had made the agreement with the US at the expense of Cuba's defense. Mikoyan, on his own initiative, decided that Castro and his military not be given control of weapons with an explosive force equal to 100 Hiroshima-sized bombs under any circumstances. He defused the seemingly intractable situation, which risked re-escalating the crisis, on November 22, 1962. During a tense, four-hour meeting, Mikoyan convinced Castro that despite Moscow's desire to help, it would be in breach of an unpublished Soviet law, which did not actually exist, to transfer the missiles permanently into Cuban hands and provide them with an independent nuclear deterrent. Castro was forced to give way and, much to the relief of Khrushchev and the rest of the Soviet government, the tactical nuclear weapons were crated and returned by sea to the Soviet Union during December 1962.] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cuban_Missile_Crisis#cite_note-MatthewsBBC20121013-118) https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/4/43/Herblock.gif This being a naval forum: time to bone-up on missile crises 101: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cuban_Missile_Crisis (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cuban_Missile_Crisis) China's bastard war-child of N. Korea is as big problem as Cuba was for the Soviet Union.
Jimbuna
08-20-17, 12:08 PM
The latest offering and not totally unexpected really.
NORTH Korea has warned that the US risks starting an “uncontrollable phase of nuclear war” by conducting a joint military exercise with South Korea this week.
http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/843513/north-korea-usa-kim-jong-un-donald-trump-nuclear-war-games-drill-latest-live-update
Platapus
08-20-17, 12:14 PM
I wonder how we would feel if North Korea conducted an exercise within striking distance of the US?
But hey, we are 'merica and we are special in a special way.
Catfish
08-20-17, 12:32 PM
Willy waving.
Platapus
08-20-17, 01:08 PM
https://s16-us2.ixquick.com/cgi-bin/serveimage?url=http%3A%2F%2Ft0.gstatic.com%2Fimage s%3Fq%3Dtbn%3AANd9GcRKWN-noX9iksYHSuw9iFQeIcO8XvkHHPexJZVkQnWaGj9_jKH-&sp=efd11274500dc214212c0de0826f813f&anticache=266504
Rockstar
08-20-17, 02:48 PM
I wonder how europe would feel if we pulled out of NATO, err well we found that out in another thread. They wouldnt like it because there still seems to be an ingrained fear of Russia. Therefore Im all for staying in NATO and supporting my allies there just as I am willing too for those in the Pacific.
As for those Norks, they continue unabated their nuclear weapons program and keep threatening to use those weapons if they dont get their way. I dont care if they cant have their way or are offended by our presence during planned joint exercises with other nations. My concern is with my allies South Korea and Japan, I wonder what they would feel like if we turned tail and ran because we were afraid of offending some little tyrannical turd stain like fatboy Un. I dont think they would feel very secure.
I say bring it on, follow through and dont back down. Take it as far as THEY want too. They keep making threats, either they pull those smoke wagons or sit down and shut-up. I also hope ignoring fatboy could encourage others in N.K. to overthrow the current regime and maybe bring something better.
ikalugin
08-20-17, 02:55 PM
Meanwhile Russia continues the RVSN (strategic missile forces) exercise with around 11 missile regiments participating.
The adversary forces, "terrorists", employed chemical weapons against the dispersed TELs.
Aktungbby
08-20-17, 09:57 PM
^SIZE MATTERS!:Kaleun_Crying:
^SIZE MATTERS!:Kaleun_Crying:
Sorry but yes it does!!:o
Jimbuna
08-21-17, 05:19 AM
http://i.imgur.com/za2FJYt.gif
Platapus
08-21-17, 03:50 PM
When it comes to ICBMs, it is not the size it is all about the Penetration Aids. :D
The comment I wrote wasn't suitable for this thread. I have therefore I erased it.
Markus
Jimbuna
08-22-17, 02:16 PM
Can we all stay on topic and dispense with the sexual innuendos please.
Sorry :oops:
Edit Have changed my former comment.
Markus
I think he was referring to me, I'm a naughty boy sometimes!!:oops::yep:
Jimbuna
08-23-17, 07:32 AM
No, not referring to any individual in particular, simply acting on concerns brought to my attention regarding where the topic was heading.
North Korea has fired three short-range ballistic missiles, the US military says.
They were launched from a site in the North Korean province of Gangwon and flew for about 250km (150 miles), officials in South Korea said.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-41058152
They ran out of gas!:yep:
Jimbuna
08-26-17, 07:40 AM
They ran out of gas!:yep:
Hehe, that's about as far as Kim can or will go for a while now.
Jimbuna
08-28-17, 04:53 PM
North Korea has staged a fresh missile test, with the projectile flying over northern Japan before landing in the sea early on Tuesday, the Japanese government has said.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-41078187
Looks like the ball has been served right into Donalds court.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-41078187
Looks like the ball has been served right into Donalds court.
Seems to gone cold on Donald's side time being. Just as well as it was getting rather heated, I think Donald has home grown issues on his plate taking up his time. If no reaction old fat boy in NK may get upset or have a smug grin on his face.
The only response I can think of is...strong words from Trump and other politicians in USA and other countries and perhaps a liftet finger.
Markus
Aktungbby
08-28-17, 09:19 PM
OH pshaw! After all, Fatboy figures Nippon is the "land of the rising son!"https://media1.giphy.com/media/bihnwWzmlYHN6/200.gif#6-grid4
Jimbuna
08-29-17, 10:36 AM
Not what I was expecting...
In a statement, Mr Trump said: "The world has received North Korea's latest message loud and clear: this regime has signalled its contempt for its neighbours, for all members of the United Nations, and for minimum standards of acceptable international behaviour.
"Threatening and destabilising actions only increase the North Korean regime's isolation in the region and among all nations of the world. All options are on the table."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-41078187
Aktungbby
08-29-17, 12:22 PM
HEY! https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/62FA/production/_97583352_korea_japan_missile_624.pngNo doubt Fatboy will claim
right of 'innocent passage'. I notice the missile was not routed more northerly over/above Hokkaido island toward the disputed Kuril islands https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/50/Demis-kurils-russian_names.png/220px-Demis-kurils-russian_names.png (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Demis-kurils-russian_names.png)(<enlarges) claimed by Japan but still held by Russia since WWII..... The disputed islands are known in Japan as the country's "Northern Territories (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kuril_Islands_dispute)". Fatboy does not want to piss off his distant political 'Commie cuz' Vlad Putin. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kuril_Islands (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kuril_Islands) That said: http://www.pravdareport.com/russia/politics/28-04-2017/137622-russia_japan_kurils-0/ (http://www.pravdareport.com/russia/politics/28-04-2017/137622-russia_japan_kurils-0/)
Mr Quatro
08-29-17, 01:54 PM
It's not fair that Japan has app on their phone that warns of a NK missile flying over their northern island, but we don't.
We demand an app that tells us a NK missile is on the way ... The North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) can do that, right?
and we want it now :D
Some of my FB-friends are 110 % convinced. Trump will very soon initiate an all-out attack on NK. I have said it is very, very doubtful this would happen.
Markus
Platapus
08-29-17, 03:59 PM
[QUOTE=Aktungbby;2509425]HEY! https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/62FA/production/_97583352_korea_japan_missile_624.png
Looks like North Korea chose a trajectory that minimized passing over Japanese land.
Rockstar
08-29-17, 04:23 PM
[QUOTE=Aktungbby;2509425]HEY! https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/62FA/production/_97583352_korea_japan_missile_624.png
Looks like North Korea chose a trajectory that minimized passing over Japanese land.
That and its altitude was also approximately 340 miles overhead. Not much to see there.
Some of my FB-friends are 110 % convinced. Trump will very soon initiate an all-out attack on NK. I have said it is very, very doubtful this would happen.
Markus
There is no Military build up, so for the moment they are wrong, social media blows everything up way out of proportion so fast these days it takes a while for the facts to catch up.
There is no Military build up, so for the moment they are wrong, social media blows everything up way out of proportion so fast these days it takes a while for the facts to catch up.
Indeed it does-
Did also tell them, it's not going to happen. I doubt it very much, ´cause we have passed a certain line-
(when I wrote this, I was thinking on what Skybird said about this line- Now when it's almost sure NK has ICBM)
Markus
Jimbuna
08-30-17, 07:42 AM
North Korea says its firing of a missile over Japan was "the first step" of military operations in the Pacific, signalling plans for more launches.
State media also repeated threats to the US Pacific island of Guam, which it called "an advanced base of invasion".
Meeting late on Tuesday in New York, the council called the launch "outrageous", demanding North Korea cease all missile testing.
While the statement said the regime's actions were a threat to all UN member states, it did not threaten new sanctions against Pyongyang.
Arriving for a visit to Japan, British Prime Minister Theresa May on Wednesday called on China to put more pressure on North Korea, saying that Beijing had a key role in the international response to Pyongyang's "reckless provocation".
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-41091563
This is precisely what happens when Kim believes he is getting away with any actions he takes.
If escalation continues I can envisage some form of military action before christmas.
Skybird
08-30-17, 08:25 AM
It is surprising to me a bit that Japan took the risk - small or big may be arguable, but a risk there was for sure - to let that missile fly instead of intercepting it. This would have been a very strong answer, and a message to both the world and to North Korea. The only reason why they did not do it,the only reaosn that makes sense is that they were not sure of their chances. An attempt to intercept that missile going fail, would have been embarassing, and an encouragemet to North Korea.
Is it unreasonable to assume that the Japanese indeed feared to fail? I think not.
Lets go back in history, second Gulf war, 1991. Scuds were repeatedly fired by Iraq, at Allied targets as well as Israel. By the end of the war, the Pentagon claimed that around 47 of 49 interception attempts were successful. Later, this claim was reduced to much smaller values, and in Israel the military said that less than 2% of overall Patriot-based attempt to intercept Scuds, were successful. I just have read Manfred van creveld who claimed in the book I read that in fatc not even one successful hit of a Patriot versus a Scuds has beens cored ever during all the war. And a decade later, Clinton's defence minister admitted that "the Patriots have not worked."
The Pentgaon of course has an interest of spreadinh Hey-Hooray-paroles, so has the defence industry. But I warn against believing them. Too man voices of witnesses of that war that left the military meanwhile, claimed that the Patriots did not work, and that an interception was defined as successful if only the warhead got into a certain close range to the Scud, even if the explosion then had the scud beign left unharmed. It reminds a bit of like they did bodycounts in Vietnam: they were not counted, but officers were encouraged to use kind of a formula: if so and so many American rifles fired during a firefight for so and so long time, then the result had to be so and so many dead Vietcong, period. They were neither counted, nor in any other way confirmed. The Pentagon wanted to bioast with high losses suffered by the Vietcoing - and this abstract way of getting a number was the method of choice to produce these wanted high hill numbers.
I would not be surprised if it works comparably regarding the capabilities of counter-ICBM missiles, despite technological advancements. The wide variation yo get on success rates for Patriot-vrsus-Scud engagement si the war of 1991 shows that a lot of creativity is beign sued to "optimise" the official statistics, you can find well founded claims for the Patriots heving been very successful, and for claims that they did not succeed a single time, and then anything between these two statements.
Sheds a bit of new light on the threat caused by North Korea. However, I expect, as usual, no consequences from that. But I assume that the North Korean intel analysts know very well the truth behind the Patriot-vs-Scud statistis. And drawed conclusions.
Mr Quatro
08-30-17, 09:10 AM
It is surprising to me a bit that Japan took the risk - small or big may be arguable, but a risk there was for sure - to let that missile fly instead of intercepting it. This would have been a very strong answer, and a message to both the world and to North Korea. The only reason why they did not do it,the only reaosn that makes sense is that they were not sure of their chances. An attempt to intercept that missile going fail, would have been embarassing, and an encouragemet to North Korea.
Is it unreasonable to assume that the Japanese indeed feared to fail? I think not.
Lets go back in history, second Gulf war, 1991. Scuds were repeatedly fired by Iraq, at Allied targets as well as Israel. By the end of the war, the Pentagon claimed that around 47 of 49 interception attempts were successful. Later, this claim was reduced to much smaller values, and in Israel the military said that less than 2% of overall Patriot-based attempt to intercept Scuds, were successful. I just have read Manfred van creveld who claimed in the book I read that in fatc not even one successful hit of a Patriot versus a Scuds has beens cored ever during all the war. And a decade later, Clinton's defence minister admitted that "the Patriots have not worked."
The Pentgaon of course has an interest of spreadinh Hey-Hooray-paroles, so has the defence industry. But I warn against believing them. Too man voices of witnesses of that war that left the military meanwhile, claimed that the Patriots did not work, and that an interception was defined as successful if only the warhead got into a certain close range to the Scud, even if the explosion then had the scud beign left unharmed. It reminds a bit of like they did bodycounts in Vietnam: they were not counted, but officers were encouraged to use kind of a formula: if so and so many American rifles fired during a firefight for so and so long time, then the result had to be so and so many dead Vietcong, period. They were neither counted, nor in any other way confirmed. The Pentagon wanted to bioast with high losses suffered by the Vietcoing - and this abstract way of getting a number was the method of choice to produce these wanted high hill numbers.
I didn't know all of this Sky thanks for bringing it up, but like the soldiers themselves the generals and the presidents of those days are gone or retired. This is not the same America and we don't have to lie to impress any little demi-gods of NK. If they persist in firing missiles they will find out what we can do in stopping them. I hope it's not an all out war, but a short one that destroys any hope they have of threatening a free world ever again.
The problem with this is the oriental mind and the bad guys losing face. Instead of saying, "Hey NK your country is bad" we need to open our arms to them and tear down the border that separates them. I pray that Korea becomes a model for the rest of the world to follow in being unified and that won't happen with Kim jong un in charge. He will have to be eliminated along with his military staff and let the people rule.
A war will be horrible for both sides we need a quick and lasting solution. Stop and think what will happen if we wait much longer for the fifty warheads they have now to be installed on fifty rockets ready to launch on command or even worse a diesel submarine that can launch a missile with a nuclear warhead on it.
President Trump has to act soon and it is Kim jong un that is pulling the trigger. There are invisible forces at work here for we fight not against flesh and blood, but against ancestors of North Korea and the oriental mind. We have to help Korea get to the point in time that they are loving each other instead of fighting each other.
A war is not advisable at this time due the pressing needs of the American people for a budget and health care and of course the 100 billion dollars the victims of Hurricane Harvey in Texas and Louisiana need.
I don't envy President Trump having to make this decision facing all of the other problems he has. Lets support his efforts not make fun of them. Let the powers that be decide our country and the Korean peninsula fate. :yep:
Skybird
08-30-17, 09:30 AM
I quickly googled the matter I told, I was not sure whether my numbers told by memory were right. But this piece by Fred Kaplan is from 2003, and pretty much in the openign paragraphs he gives the same numbers, more or less, like I quoted by memory. Maybe I even red this piece ten years ago or so, I do not know anymore where I have it from.
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/war_stories/2003/03/patriot_games.2.html
And Mr. Quatro - politicians lie all the time, no matter the time they live in. Its part of their job description.
Aktungbby
08-30-17, 10:01 AM
a quick and lasting solution What we need to do is fire a full fledged 'test':D ICBM over North Korea; a complete dud, and have it accidentally land in Pyongyang. Of course we will apologize profusely for our mistake.... And proceed to launch another one....which will land on Pyongyang and of course we will apologize profusely again....and we will escalate to full nuke if China so much as opens it's mouth about our conduct without a similar excoriation of its little buddy, Fatboy. Time for Trump to finish President Truman's 'unfinished business' ...65 years on. :arrgh!: Fatboy likes to break the rules; we can break a few of our own. One thing though: an international murder warrant should be issued for Kim over the assassination death of his half brother in Malaysia. Talk about 'loss of face'; should he leave to visit China, for example, his so-called diplomatic immunity will not apply and China must comply with the warrant or be exposed for showing its true colors. Their participation in the present economic sanctions is a complete fraud...easily circumvented along the common boarder. This is about China, not its patsy North Korea.
Platapus
08-30-17, 04:06 PM
I don't know what the legality would be for Japan to shoot down a missile that is not in their sovereign airspace.
Anything above the Karman Line (100km) is recognized as international space (no pun intended)
Anything under 30km is considered territorial airspace. The area between 30km and 100 km has not been decided on an international level.
The primary reason is that very little happens in the 30-100km as it is too high for aircraft and too low for space craft. The only things that go though this area are space objects going up or down.
The Korean missile was passing over Japanese zones at about 500km, well above the Karman line.
The THAAD has an intercept altitude limit of about 150km so there was really no way the Japanese could shoot down the North Korean Missile as it was passing. I don't believe that the Japanese have an interceptor that has a higher operational altitude. Also these types of anti-ballistic missile interceptors intercept on reentry or the downward path.
Skybird
08-30-17, 04:21 PM
^ Who cares. Ill-build missiles have a risk of falling apart in flight all by themselves, and it seesm that quite some Iraqi Scuds suffered that fate and then got wronly scored as Patriot-kills.
The debris then crashes on the ground, if it is not travelling at speeds in excess of escape velocity. And that debris could stray onto Japanese soil.
Kim plays foul all the time. Why should we limit our options by sticking to bureaucratic "rules"?
Better it would be to have naval assets near the coast and shoot any NKorean missile as soon as possible after launch, preferrably over NKorean soil. I am confident that this language, while not sticking to "rules", nevertheless is understood very wel in Pyongyang.
If and it's only If Trump decide to punish Kim I'm sure it will be little needle stick operation where he give order to some Subs to send some TLAM against 2-3 different military and/or industrial complex
What will happen thereafter I can only guess
It can goes from Kim does nothing and he send everything he has of missiles and ICBM toward USA and its Allieds.
Markus
What would be good is to intercept one of NK's warships, take it over some how then release it just to prove a point!! Kim would go nuts but wouldn't be enough for him to retaliate with missiles. It would be like slapping him in the face with gloves!!:hmmm:
Jimbuna
08-31-17, 06:59 AM
An interesting article by the BBC
North Korea: What are the military options?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-41095772
Mr Quatro
08-31-17, 10:27 AM
If and it's only If Trump decide to punish Kim I'm sure it will be little needle stick operation where he give order to some Subs to send some TLAM against 2-3 different military and/or industrial complex
What will happen thereafter I can only guess
It can goes from Kim does nothing and he send everything he has of missiles and ICBM toward USA and its Allieds.
Markus
Sounds about right, plus B-1 bombers, B-52 bombers and a hundred tomahawks, plus jet fighters in the air to protect the bombers, plus artillery to counter the NK atillery, plus it will make NK so mad they will launch anything they have at South Korea and we don't really know what that is, perhaps a nuc warhead with a contact explosive (hope it's a dud) on a mobile launcher. Then the ground troops will have to wear gas mask, because NK is not going to take any attack lightly and will use all of their weapons at their disposal. In other words they don't have anything left to lose.
Not good Markus plus our higher up's agree it's going to be a messy war. One that we don't want to start, but one that President Trump is not going to keep backing down from.
What would be good is to intercept one of NK's warships, take it over some how then release it just to prove a point!! Kim would go nuts but wouldn't be enough for him to retaliate with missiles. It would be like slapping him in the face with gloves!!:hmmm:
I like this one Reece :up: but don't give it back, but put it on display and charge admission with the NK crew onboard behind bars to be laughed at.
Better yet capture a NK submarine in South Korean waters and make it surface and keep it afloat and tow it to port. :up:
I also have, as mentioned before some discussion with other friends and friends friend on social media.
Saying to them-You seems to forget that an action create a counter-action and each of these counter-action create new counter action and so on.
And
It's easy to sit behind the computer and write things like "Drop a nuke on NK and it will all be over" You seem to forget all about the fallout and other secondary damage such a nuke would give, if USA dropped on NK.
Have also read stuff like-USA has Patriot and now THAAD they can easily take on NK's middle age rockets- Me: Do not put all your money on these systems-They are good but not 110 % effective.
Markus
Aktungbby
08-31-17, 11:44 AM
....and China must comply with the warrant or be exposed for showing its true colors. Their participation in the present economic sanctions is a complete fraud...easily circumvented along the common boarder. This is about China, not its patsy North Korea.
It's easy to sit behind the computer and write things like "Drop a nuke on NK and it will all be over" You seem to forget all about the fallout and other secondary damage such a nuke would give, if USA dropped on NK.
Precisely! And we have not forgotten.:03:
RT has this breaking story
North Korea has developed a new, more advanced hydrogen nuke that is small enough to be fitted on a new intercontinental ballistic missile, state media KCNA has claimed.
https://www.rt.com/news/401850-korea-hydrogen-bomb-icbm/
Don't know how trustworthy this story is.
Markus
RT has this breaking story
https://www.rt.com/news/401850-korea-hydrogen-bomb-icbm/
Don't know how trustworthy this story is.
Markus
I rather some better source.
I rather some better source.
Hey, RT was good enough for Trump to trust and you know how he hates "fake news"... :03: :D
<O>
Hey, RT was good enough for Trump to trust and you know how he hates "fake news"... :03: :D
<O>:har: :har:
Skybird
09-03-17, 04:46 AM
Recent earthquake in NK gets attributed to this explosion. Now waiting for the Donald's thunderous reply. In words.
I wonder how reliable intel is on NK's storage of all nuke warheads.
SK I expect to become a big problem in the unlikely case of the US going after Kim'S nukes for real. I do not take it for granted that the US could count on the south's support for preparing a surprise take-out-strike.
NK should have been dealt with already a very long time ago. Now it probably is too late. Welcome to an even more unstable, unsecure and unpredictable world and an even more brutalised SE Asia. Congrats to Bejing, they got what they wanted: a second front against the US in any future upcoming war. NK will bind a lot of ressources of US allies in the region, and is in principle untouchable now or in the very near future. Only that it is driven by a far less rational regime than China.
Hitler wanted to destroy Germany and all Germans when he relaised that he could no longer win the war, he said the Germans do not deserve to survive if they cannot win this war. The same could happen in SE Asia as well. And Hitler had no nukes.
Jimbuna
09-03-17, 05:41 AM
I get really curious when I see this announcer on tv, reminds me of some guy in drag :)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-41139445
http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/news/2017/09/03/0200000000AEN20170903004700315.html
SEOUL, Sept. 3 (Yonhap) -- Top South Korean and U.S. military officers agreed Sunday to take
military measures against North Korea for its latest nuclear test.
In a phone call with Gen. Joseph Dunford, chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS),
his South Korean counterpart Gen. Jeong Kyeong-doo stressed the need for "effective military
responses" to the provocation aimed at demonstrating the allies' force and resolve, according to
Jeong's office.
Dunford voiced support for the offer and vowed cooperation, as they agreed to discuss all military
measures against the North under the spirit of the alliance, it added.
Jeong also had phone talks with Gen. Vincent K. Brooks, commander of the U.S. Forces Korea and
the allies' Combined Forces Command, shortly after news broke of the North's sixth nuclear test earlier in the day.
They agreed to take combined military measures against North Korea as early as possible, said South Korea's JCS.
The US has joined North Korea's regional neighbours in condemning the secretive communist state's latest nuclear weapons test.http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-41140621
Skybird
09-03-17, 08:16 AM
Thunderous words. Tweets will follow, no doubt. Get to the real nitty gritty in act and deed - and see South Korea turning into the biggest of blockades. This parading and lamenting and word-shelling impresses nobody. Its more like just whistling in the dark.
Jimbuna
09-03-17, 08:22 AM
Thunderous words. Tweets will follow, no doubt. Get to the real nitty gritty in act and deed - and see South Korea turning into the biggest of blockades. This parading and lamenting and word-shelling impresses nobody. Its more like just whistling in the dark.
I tend to agree then start worrying "What if it is for real now"
Nah, North Korea is off the menu now. The US has lost this one, it just hasn't realised it yet, or perhaps it just doesn't want to. Either way Kim Jong-un has achieved what he wanted to, a real deterrent to American actions, and he will never, ever give that up, not when he looks at what happened to the last person to trust America (Gaddafi).
So the US can either adapt to the new state of affairs, or it can start a nuclear war that will kill thousands if not millions. The choice is Donalds.
:yeah:
Mr Quatro
09-03-17, 09:44 AM
Thunderous words. Tweets will follow, no doubt. Get to the real nitty gritty in act and deed - and see South Korea turning into the biggest of blockades. This parading and lamenting and word-shelling impresses nobody. Its more like just whistling in the dark.
You knock our President if he doesn't do anything and you will probably knock our President when he does do something about North Korea being a threat to our national interest and South Korea and Japan and Guam's everyday living arrangement.
It's just a fear game so far ... if we push back then NK will act like they have won and strike a peace deal and continue to stock pile the weapons they need for an all out attack if provoked to do so. Fear and lies and is what they do best.
Take the dude out ... offer a price on his head and drop balloons of information on the lies of NK leader to it's citizens. Make fun of fat boy Kim with pictures and jokes to piss him off and get his people to laugh secretly too ... fight a dirty campaign war not a nuclear war.
What would a few million cell phones cost dropped in by air and set up towers out at sea to provide a way to communicate with the citizens of NK with meaningful dialog.
Don't we have an Army intelligence unit that could do this and save us the time and trouble of a war and what a war would cost. We would have to spend billions of dollars to fight and to provide disaster relieve afterwards anyway. :o
Aktungbby
09-03-17, 10:13 AM
Fatboy giving 'field advice" on hydrogen bombs. I always wonder what everyone's actually writing in their little books?...who examines the little books? and what the penalty is for not taking good notes? http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-40492702 (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-40492702)https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/17FEC/production/_97648289_041423379.jpg
Mr Quatro
09-03-17, 11:31 AM
Nah, North Korea is off the menu now. The US has lost this one, it just hasn't realised it yet, or perhaps it just doesn't want to. Either way Kim Jong-un has achieved what he wanted to, a real deterrent to American actions, and he will never, ever give that up, not when he looks at what happened to the last person to trust America (Gaddafi).
So the US can either adapt to the new state of affairs, or it can start a nuclear war that will kill thousands if not millions. The choice is Donalds.
:yeah:
Welcome back Oberon ... :up:
Saw and heard a person from some Danish military academy Saying
NK haven't developed nukes/hydrogenbomb to use in an attack against other countries-They know very well what will happen if they do
No country with nukes has attacked another country with nukes
(when he said this-I said loudly-Hey..you forgot Pakistan and India)
If USA and SK does as mentioned, conduct a military strike on NK-The question will be-what next ?
Markus
If USA and SK does as mentioned, conduct a military strike on NK-The question will be-what next ?
Markus
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5gD_TL1BqFg
Pick a major city close to North Korea. It's gone.
Pick a random major city in the US, roll a dice, if it's higher than three, it's gone.
THAAD, AEGIS, GMD. Those are dice, if you're lucky they'll stop some missiles...if you're unlucky then they won't. Does America feel lucky enough to risk the destruction of major cities both at home and abroad? Does it really want to take that gamble?
Roll a dice, maybe you'll be lucky, maybe only a few hundred thousand will die, maybe you won't be lucky.
Rockstar
09-03-17, 01:07 PM
As europe sits on its collective butt and complains.
As for this American I do feel lucky. Bring it on. We might lose a few But if the doctrines of old still apply I can assure you we will wipe of the face of the earth the one who fired it.
As europe sits on its collective butt and complains.
As for this American I do feel lucky. Bring it on. We might lose a few But if the doctrines of old still apply I can assure you we will wipe of the face of the earth the one who fired it.
It is a win win for America really, you get to blow up a lot of people and in return you get the ultimate in reduced government and survivalist wet dreams. Especially if China gets involved and brings their arsenal to the fight (which they've said that they will if the US starts the fight). :yeah:
Rockstar
09-03-17, 02:23 PM
I'm diggin' that! missed ya man glad to see ya pop for a spell :)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5gD_TL1BqFg
Pick a major city close to North Korea. It's gone.
Pick a random major city in the US, roll a dice, if it's higher than three, it's gone.
THAAD, AEGIS, GMD. Those are dice, if you're lucky they'll stop some missiles...if you're unlucky then they won't. Does America feel lucky enough to risk the destruction of major cities both at home and abroad? Does it really want to take that gamble?
Roll a dice, maybe you'll be lucky, maybe only a few hundred thousand will die, maybe you won't be lucky.
Thank you for your answer.
I know that these Air defense type of weapons is not
100 % reliable. I keep on telling this to my other friends, when they write stuff like-Their Patriot or their THAAD can easily take out NK's rocket
What the President in USA and the other guy in SK decide is something we can't do anything about, we can only hope the information Trump gets from his staff will make him take a well thought decision.
Maybe the information Trump gets from his ....security cabinet(forgot the real name for it) makes him think that these system is 100 % reliable. How knows
Markus
Pentagon chief James Mattis says any threat to the US or its allies by North Korea will be met with a "massive military response".http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-41140621
Drop a ton of food with notes saying want more food over throw that fat bloated pig. That's a idea from a mate of mind, not sure if that idea would work. :hmmm:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-41140621
Drop a ton of food with notes saying want more food over throw that fat bloated pig. That's a idea from a mate of mind, not sure if that idea would work. :hmmm:
Maybe not. This could be the best answer to the problem. Do what is needed to start a civil war in NK.
Maybe bombing the civilians with tons of food and propaganda and what else they have to do to start this civil war.
Markus
Another thing. Hearing all these different type of expert on Danish, Swedish and sometimes on German TV I get this picture inside of my head.
A mother is standing with his son(North Korea) and is defending him in front of his teacher(UN) So you accuse my son, what about this rascal(USA) over there and his gang(South Korea and Japan)
I get this feeling that these expert is trying to find a lot of excuses for NK's behaviour against their neighbours
Markus
Platapus
09-03-17, 05:39 PM
Weaponizing a thermonuclear device into a deployable weapon is not an easy task. Fusion weapons, while related to, and require fission weapons are still orders of magnitude more difficult to design and weaponize.
North Korea has still not demonstrated that they can go beyond a boosted fission device.
Los Angeles has a very large Korean population (said to be the largest outside of S. Korea), so we have several Korean TV stations on the air here. I've been watching the Korean news programs, when I can, and there doesn't appear to be a level of anxiety in the Korean news media one would expect given S. Korea is basically on top of the short list of places to be vaporized. By contrast, NHK News is all agog about the NK tests and threats. It's kind of a "go figure" sort of situation...
Trump, in his usual bull in a china shop bumbling style, is apparently giving more angst to the S. Koreans than Kim Jong Un:
Seoul tries to ignore Trump’s criticism: ‘They worry he’s kind of nuts,’ one observer says --
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/in-latest-test-north-korea-detonates-its-most-powerful-nuclear-device-yet/2017/09/03/4c5202ea-90b4-11e7-8754-d478688d23b4_story.html?utm_term=.83669b2d98cb
Note to the SK observers: Yeah, we here in the US know how you feel; we "worry he's kind of nuts", too. In fact, we've got a lot to back up that observation...
Some of Trump's supporters, long on flag-waving, short on common sense, have been rah-rahing the idea of just 'going for it' and launching an all out assault on NK; they even seem to be content with any collateral damage such an act of idiocy might inflict on the US, let alone our allies; I guess it's easy to be so uncaring and callous if you're not in one of the prime target areas; wonder how very gung ho they would be if they knew with a certainty they would be the very first targets to go; I bet we'd see a lot of pick-up trucks and Winnebago's a-hauling ass out of those red states if the bull's-eye was on them. There's always been a lot of extreme bravery in the ranks of the REMFs...
<O>
Maybe not. This could be the best answer to the problem. Do what is needed to start a civil war in NK.
Maybe bombing the civilians with tons of food and propaganda and what else they have to do to start this civil war.
Markus
Ok, so you get a Korean civil war. A civil war with nukes, who is to say that one of the sides, perhaps a losing one, decides to go out with a bang and launch a load of nukes. What have they to lose after all? And, of course, that's not forgetting the other non-nuclear special weapons they may have tucked up their sleeves. Chemical and biological weapons in a civil war, we've seen how much fun that is for all involved in Syria.
Basically in a North Korea civil war, you've taken a situation which is already very unstable and then dumped a whole truck full of instability on top of it.
The civil war in Syria screwed up the Middle East, what do you think a civil war in North Korea would do to Asia?
Weaponizing a thermonuclear device into a deployable weapon is not an easy task. Fusion weapons, while related to, and require fission weapons are still orders of magnitude more difficult to design and weaponize.
North Korea has still not demonstrated that they can go beyond a boosted fission device.
How can they demonstrate it though? Short of doing a China and launching one deliberately. I mean, they're basically walking us through their program with some very high resolution photographs, and we keep asking them to provide us with more evidence.
Trump, in his usual bull in a china shop bumbling style, is apparently giving more angst to the S. Koreans than Kim Jong Un:
Not to mention that America is at the moment both standing firm with South Korea and stabbing it in the back. Whilst Mattis affirms that any threat against the allies of the US will result in massive destruction, Trump tweets that the South is appeasing North Korea and is currently threatening to pull the US out of the KORUS trade deal.
http://cf.mp-cdn.net/a7/08/7f15d8eff5246f52b429f1f9fa74-confused-jackie-chan.jpg
You've got to give North Korea one thing, at least they're consistent with their message.
North Korea preparing more missile launches, says Southhttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-41144356
Stoking the fire again.
Rockstar
09-04-17, 10:26 AM
Keg party at my place.
http://img-s-msn-com.akamaized.net/tenant/amp/entityid/AAreG4t.img?h=486&w=728&m=6&q=60&o=f&l=f&x=1171&y=420
After having read Oberon's comments to my reply, I was thinking
What type of answer do our Politicians have:
1. Hope life will go back to normal-with the different NK has both ordinary nukes and perhaps hydrogenbomb and ICBMs
2. Increase the economical pressure on NK and maybe China. Thereby hope NK will come to senses and drop their nuke-plans
3. Bomb military and industrial complex that is connected to NK's Nuklear program
4. Something else which I have missed.
Markus
Jimbuna
09-04-17, 01:17 PM
Whatever the answer/outcome is it must be quick and decisive.
Aktungbby
09-04-17, 01:21 PM
Fatboy giving 'field advice" on hydrogen bombs. I always wonder what everyone's actually writing in their little books?...who examines the little books? and what the penalty is for not taking good notes? http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-40492702 (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-40492702)https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/17FEC/production/_97648289_041423379.jpg NOT smiling....:hmmm:
Keg party at my place.
http://img-s-msn-com.akamaized.net/tenant/amp/entityid/AAreG4t.img?h=486&w=728&m=6&q=60&o=f&l=f&x=1171&y=420
Smiling and still taking notes...multitasking....the bad note-taker is now missing from the group??!!:yep: :oops:
Of course their current technology is lacking....https://media1.giphy.com/media/M0lrD4GrkVUHu/200w.gif#18-grid3:O:
4. Something else which I have missed.
4. The rest of the world green lights China to go in and remove this mad man and as agreed with the world NK will become a DMZ and China runs NK as a sweat box pumping out cheap nasty tacky rubbish that plenty of people will buy boosting China's economy. :03:
Catfish
09-04-17, 03:49 PM
Whatever the answer/outcome is it must be quick and decisive.
I agree, however.. in which part of the world did you live? :03:
Platapus
09-04-17, 04:06 PM
Whatever the answer/outcome is it must be quick and decisive.
Agreed, but this is not a situation where just any quick and decisive decision will do. We need the right decision.
A decision based on
Evidence and not emotions
Facts and not fears
A decision that is rational and not reactive.
I do not have confidence that Trump fully understands that this is not like his businesses where he can declare bankruptcy and take a mulligan and try again. This is for real. Nor is it a scripted TV show where no matter how bleak it appears, the hero (naturally Trump) prevails just in time for the closing commercials.
As I have posted before: Beware of old men eager to send young men/women to war.
Skybird
09-04-17, 05:42 PM
Whatever the answer/outcome is it must be quick and decisive.
I trust in politicians staying to be politicians. We will get more answers of the same we already excessively had.
Too many threats and ultimatums and warnign have been given, without conseqeunces.
I say: you give an ultimatum just once, and you never are to prolongue it. Never. Giving more of the same, means telling jokes.
this is not a situation where just any quick and decisive decision will do. We need the right decision.
A decision based on
Evidence and not emotions
Facts and not fears
A decision that is rational and not reactive.
Errr, yes, as I said: more of the same.
https://www2.pic-upload.de/img/33865734/Unbenannt.jpg (https://www.pic-upload.de)
In other words: jokes. See what I mean?
Maybe we should form a committee. To re-evaluate Northkorea once again, from scratch, making sure that this time the reasoning is done reaosonably, and profound, and rational. We really must tell them that this time we mean the red line for real. I mean: really real. To deliver sauch m essages in clarity and seriousness, is the job og diplomacy. Give diplomacy a chance.
And their engineers more time.
They are talking about more economy sanction and sanction those countries who have business connection with NK
An economy expert on Asia said to a Swedish news paper, it would be very difficult to handle
About 100 countries in the word have some kind of trade deal with NK and among them is China and Russia, who is among 10 of those who are selling and buying most from NK-These two countries has also VETO in UN.
Markus
Agreed, but this is not a situation where just any quick and decisive decision will do. We need the right decision.
A decision based on
Evidence and not emotions
Facts and not fears
A decision that is rational and not reactive.
I do not have confidence that Trump fully understands that this is not like his businesses where he can declare bankruptcy and take a mulligan and try again. This is for real. Nor is it a scripted TV show where no matter how bleak it appears, the hero (naturally Trump) prevails just in time for the closing commercials.
As I have posted before: Beware of old men eager to send young men/women to war.
Even in Trump's "reality show" he evidently didn't call the shots: more than one of the participants, both in front of and behind the camera have stated the actual "You're Fired!" decision was made, not by Trump, but by the producers of the show who transmitted their decision via a small video screen mounted in what appeared to the viewers to be a business desk phone located in front of Trump...
What we have now is a critical situation resting in the hands of the most ill-equipped, ill-informed, ill-prepared, ill-tempered, unstable and inept person ever to sit in the Oval Office. Hopefully better minds and temperament, such as Gen. Kelly, can steer the Titanic that is Trump away from the icebergs...
<O>
https://i.imgur.com/blFfjAA.jpg
U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Nikki Haley delivers remarks during a United Nations Security Council meeting on North Korea on Monday at the United Nations in New York. (Stephanie Keith / Getty Images)
http://www.latimes.com/world/asia/la-fg-un-north-korea-20170904-story.html
A little complicated situation.
Jimbuna
09-05-17, 05:15 AM
Even in Trump's "reality show" he evidently didn't call the shots: more than one of the participants, both in front of and behind the camera have stated the actual "You're Fired!" decision was made, not by Trump, but by the producers of the show who transmitted their decision via a small video screen mounted in what appeared to the viewers to be a business desk phone located in front of Trump...
What we have now is a critical situation resting in the hands of the most ill-equipped, ill-informed, ill-prepared, ill-tempered, unstable and inept person ever to sit in the Oval Office. Hopefully better minds and temperament, such as Gen. Kelly, can steer the Titanic that is Trump away from the icebergs...
<O>
How about giving the bomb to SK and Japan :hmmm:
Fact is America can not fire the first shot without dragging China and Russia into the war, so America will have to swallow the bitter pill. Saying that they should say if NK fired first at American soil and her Allies the result will be the end of Kim and his clapping mindless mob.
The only real option is to declare war to NK using conventional weapons and warn if NK launches a nuke then they will be nuked. However if they wish to negotiate a deal then they should meet.
Something along this line could possibly work.:hmmm:
Mr Quatro
09-05-17, 08:59 AM
The only real option is to declare war to NK using conventional weapons and warn if NK launches a nuke then they will be nuked. However if they wish to negotiate a deal then they should meet.
Something along this line could possibly work.:hmmm:
Fear doesn't work on a nation that has no fear of God ... The Greek definition of fear is 'respect'. Somewhere, somehow, someway, along the line China has promised North Korea protection from USA aggression.
North Korea wants us to leave them alone out of fear that they will strike back if we try to take them out of possession of nuclear weapons in this modern nuclear age. They want to strike a peace treaty and have their nuclear arsenal too. We tried to talk them into peace before and they just kept on plotting and planning how to obtain a nuclear weapon that could reach the USA.
Pakistan has 300 short range nuclear weapons aimed at India ... Why don't we hear of NK doing the same against SK? Why, is because they are still brothers and sisters and want SK to join them, which works both ways in that SK also considers NK brothers and sisters ... it's just that they have different leaders with SK being a more free and open society.
They have no intentions of striking first ... they just want us to respect them. :yep:
Platapus
09-05-17, 02:57 PM
Fear doesn't work on a nation that has no fear of God ...
Not quite sure I understand this. I would imagine that secular people who only believe in one life would be more prone to fear than those who believe in multiple lives.
Aktungbby
09-05-17, 03:06 PM
https://www2.pic-upload.de/img/33865734/Unbenannt.jpg (https://www.pic-upload.de)
In other words: jokes. See what I mean?
"I know! we'll name it ''Fat Man II" just to piss off 'the Donald'!" https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/c/c2/Fat_man.jpg/250px-Fat_man.jpg (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Fat_man.jpg)Fat Man I:timeout:
Jimbuna
09-06-17, 05:59 AM
China is key but it is a conflicted party. On the one hand it does not want to see a nuclear-armed North Korea and it has made its view clear to Pyongyang on many occasions.
However, it does not want to see the North Korean regime swept away. This would result in millions of refugees flooding into China and would probably result in a unified Korea very much in the US orbit. This is seen in Beijing as worse than having a difficult nuclear neighbour.
If China were to take the view that the coincidence of a rapidly advancing North Korean nuclear programme and the uncertainties of the Trump Administration's diplomatic capabilities means that there is a very real risk of misunderstanding and catastrophe, then maybe it might bring much greater pressure to bear on Pyongyang.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-41150291
Catch22:hmmm:
Mr Quatro
09-06-17, 10:49 AM
Did you notice this news item yet?
https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-worries-about-radioactiveand-politicalfallout-from-north-korea-blast-1504690205
BEIJING—China is amping up monitoring for signs of radioactive fallout from North Korea’s latest nuclear test, concerned that contamination could provoke a public outcry and force Beijing to harden its approach to Pyongyang, diplomats and analysts say.
NK has indicated that it will continue testing nuclear devices and missiles too, but if that mountain releases any radiation it could cause a domino effect for her surrounding nations.
Also keep noticing that Russia is telegraphing signals that they are against any military solution to the NK crises.
Putin: North Korea crisis may be 'impossible' to solve
(CNN)A day after predicting "global catastrophe" if North Korea's nuclear tests lead to anything other than talks, Russian President Vladimir Putin has said the situation …
Putin rebuffs sanctions, favors N. Korea security
MOSCOW -- Russian President Vladimir Putin again rejected U.S. calls for new sanctions against North Korea after its most powerful nuclear test, echoing China's
Aktungbby
09-06-17, 11:48 AM
How about giving the bomb to SK and Japan :hmmm:
Did you notice this news item yet?
Also keep noticing that Russia is telegraphing signals that they are against any military solution to the NK crises.
Putin: North Korea crisis may be 'impossible' to solve
(CNN)A day after predicting "global catastrophe" if North Korea's nuclear tests lead to anything other than talks, Russian President Vladimir Putin has said the situation …
Putin rebuffs sanctions, favors N. Korea security
MOSCOW -- Russian President Vladimir Putin again rejected U.S. calls for new sanctions against North Korea after its most powerful nuclear test, echoing China's VLAD the Dis-Putinator is a 'real politkker'; We should follow his lead and give short-range nukes to Turkey, Vietnam, Philippines, Japan and South Korea....and quietly withdraw our embassies from China, Russia(already well started:O:) and the five recipient nations of our newly nuke-weaponized allies....and let them settle it. We'll sit it out around Guam and 'dust off' any survivors.....:ping: :ping: :shucks:
Rockstar
09-06-17, 11:54 AM
Refraining from U.S. from military action would certainly prove Trump is colluding Putin. It would also show Kim Jong-un is really a CIA operative working for the Putin Trump syndicates plot to poison China with radiation and convert all Chinese to muslims. Soon Godzilla will rise from the depths of the Sea of Japan with orders to attack the underbelly of China.
Then and only then will Mt. Mannen fall.
https://i.pinimg.com/736x/e5/72/d8/e572d83ea11b78968576835afd1778a8--funny-meme-pics-funny-stuff.jpg
<O>
Mr Quatro
09-06-17, 03:09 PM
Refraining U.S. from military action would certainly prove Trump is colluding Putin. It also indicates Kim Jong-un is really a CIA operative working for the Putin Trump syndicates plot to poison China with radiation and convert all Chinese to muslims. Soon Godzilla will rise from the depths of the Sea of Japan with orders to attack the underbelly of China.
Then and only then will Mt. Mannen fall.
Is this the fake news Trump warns us about? :o
I guess the key to a diplomatic and peaceful solution to the NK's nuklear race problem is China and Russia.
These two country are some of the closes friend to Kim-A pressure from their side could perhaps make Kim think second time.
Markus
Mr Quatro
09-06-17, 03:57 PM
https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcTKXnYUGxBlckQWwNkBQTHU2oD35ZfvS jKmYHiQ0e7sMxAm686D
Man who fears death die thousand times
Platapus
09-06-17, 03:59 PM
https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcTKXnYUGxBlckQWwNkBQTHU2oD35ZfvS jKmYHiQ0e7sMxAm686D
Man who fears death die thousand times Ya just can't beat the Charlie Chan movies with Warner Oland :up:
I guess the key to a diplomatic and peaceful solution to the NK's nuklear race problem is China and Russia.
These two country are some of the closes friend to Kim-A pressure from their side could perhaps make Kim think second time.
Markus
Mainly Russia, they're about the only one who the DPRK hasn't completely screwed over relations with. China may do a fairly good trade relationship with the DPRK, but it's not something they're happy with, but they know that if they do what the US wants them to and gives it the old 'Japanese oil embargo' treatment then they're going to wind up with a giant crisis on their doorstep and probably a nuke in Beijing.
Russia and the DPRK haven't been doing too bad though, Russia certainly doesn't seem to consider the DPRK as much of a threat as China does, since I don't think they ever have their radars that face North Korea switched on. Compare this to China who has pretty much fortified their border. :arrgh!:
Of course, given the Putin/Trump issue, I can't see the US being able to push Putin into anything, not to mention the fact that I think the entire US diplomatic staff at the moment is one guy called Dave in a cupboard in Washington. :hmmm:
http://i66.tinypic.com/av32bn.jpg
<O>
https://i.imgflip.com/vi2a3.jpg
Catfish
09-07-17, 02:00 AM
Is there still a US diplomat? I thought they had all left.
Jimbuna
09-07-17, 05:55 AM
North Korea: Trump doesn't rule out military strike but says it is 'not our first choice' after call with China
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/north-korea-trump-china-kim-jong-un-latest-news-update-nuclear-threat-military-strike-option-a7933286.html
No doubt Kim will interpret this as a weakening of the US position and perform more launch tests.
Mr Quatro
09-07-17, 10:38 AM
Will everyone please stop worrying about the bomb, after all we still have Bert the Turtle from a 1951 Civil Defense Film:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IKqXu-5jw60
Watch the video a test will be given at the end of this training film by Jim and Steve ... remember to be ready to duck and cover.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DLcCOKvdmmw
I myself truly hopes they will find a peaceful solution to this problem
Whether our politicians decide to accept NK now is a country with Nukes, perhaps Hydrogenbomb and ICBM
or
Kim understand he is on the wrong course and stop his atomic program. The bombs he has he gives to China or Russia
I don't fear that Trump will make some military strike on NK not as it is now.
What I fear is Kim will fire 1-2 of his ICBM towards Guam where they will drop into the sea 20-40 nm from the coast. If this should happen I fear Trump has to do something.
Markus
All you need to know..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m6U9T3R3EQg
Platapus
09-07-17, 07:35 PM
What I fear is Kim will fire 1-2 of his ICBM towards Guam where they will drop into the sea 20-40 nm from the coast. If this should happen I fear Trump has to do something.
Markus
And why would KJU do this?
If NK is testing their missile systems, they would not put a live warhead on them. Testing the missile, even if it lands in the US EEZ is still allowed by treaty.
There is no reason for NK to launch a first strike against Guam, nuclear or other wise. NK will use their nuclear weapons in a retaliatory manner after overt US action. As long as the US keeps out, there is not much to worry about.
KJU is a ruthless cruel SOB but he is neither insane nor suicidal... unless put in a position where he has nothing to lose. Don't corner a paranoid rat, it will lash out.
Our job is to always keep KJU in a position where he feels that he still has a lot to lose.
What the South Koreans and the US need to do is ratchet down the rhetoric and allow North Korea to boast and strut all they want. KJU needs to be perceived, by the military and citizens, as being in control and the Saviour of his country standing up to the mean old USA.
Let him. We do not have to respond to his boasting. Let him talk tough. We know we can destroy his country. He knows we can destroy his country, so his boasting is primarily for domestic propaganda.
We should still prepare of course, but we need to not escalate. This means muzzling our UN Ambassador as she is not helping the situation, but escalating it.
For once, it would be nice if the US took the peaceful mature option, instead of our prideful emotional reactions.
We are better than KJU, so lets start acting like it.
Will everyone please stop worrying
Yeah, with all this fuss the U.S. are now signing contracts worth billions in armament, they need quiet.
...
For once, it would be nice if the US took the peaceful mature option, instead of our prideful emotional reactions.
...
You are aware Trump is still president? The maturity ship sailed a long way back...
<O>
And why would KJU do this?
If NK is testing their missile systems, they would not put a live warhead on them. Testing the missile, even if it lands in the US EEZ is still allowed by treaty.
There is no reason for NK to launch a first strike against Guam, nuclear or other wise. NK will use their nuclear weapons in a retaliatory manner after overt US action. As long as the US keeps out, there is not much to worry about.
KJU is a ruthless cruel SOB but he is neither insane nor suicidal... unless put in a position where he has nothing to lose. Don't corner a paranoid rat, it will lash out.
Our job is to always keep KJU in a position where he feels that he still has a lot to lose.
What the South Koreans and the US need to do is ratchet down the rhetoric and allow North Korea to boast and strut all they want. KJU needs to be perceived, by the military and citizens, as being in control and the Saviour of his country standing up to the mean old USA.
Let him. We do not have to respond to his boasting. Let him talk tough. We know we can destroy his country. He knows we can destroy his country, so his boasting is primarily for domestic propaganda.
We should still prepare of course, but we need to not escalate. This means muzzling our UN Ambassador as she is not helping the situation, but escalating it.
For once, it would be nice if the US took the peaceful mature option, instead of our prideful emotional reactions.
We are better than KJU, so lets start acting like it.
Fully agree, however I wouldn't rule out the DPRK carrying out a 'Frigate Bird' style test since western media still doubts whether their RV system works and we know that they like to stoke western media fears because they keep talking about EMP strikes. They don't really have the setup to do an EMP strike, nor would they particularly want to, but they talk about it from time to time because they've seen the western media lose its mind over it.
The next test though will probably be another shot over Japan I'd wager, possibly a salvo of three or four missiles following about the same trajectory as the last test, basically testing the ability and resolve of Japan to intercept. Noting that the last Hwasong-12 test was intended to travel the approximate distance to Guam but out to the Pacific (it fell short by a bit) then it makes sense that if you're conducting tests in preparation for potentially carrying out the Guam mission then you'll want to salvo fire some Hwasong-12s out into the Pacific the same distance.
After that...well, they've said that they want to test the full range of the Hwasong-14. Not sure how they're going to do that, maybe shoot it over the pole into the Atlantic, but that will take it over China and Russia...not that Russia would probably actually see it. Or they could loft it and shove it somewhere in the South Pacific. Or they could go Frigate Bird on us, which would be a bit terrifying.
Either which way, mature responses would be nice, yes.
Jimbuna
09-08-17, 05:53 AM
I'm thinking the next launch will be tomorrow to celebrate the 69th anniversary of the founding of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.
The US will continue to monitor the situation hoping China will ramp up and agree to 'meaningful' sanctions and only act militarily if and when it can justifiably claim an attck on an ally is imminent or has taken place (Guam for example).
Mr Quatro
09-08-17, 11:11 AM
I'm thinking the next launch will be tomorrow to celebrate the 69th anniversary of the founding of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.
The US will continue to monitor the situation hoping China will ramp up and agree to 'meaningful' sanctions and only act militarily if and when it can justifiably claim an attck on an ally is imminent or has taken place (Guam for example).
Good guess Jim ... President Trump has a few more problems right now. Three hurricanes, budget unsettled, health care system going down the drain and premiums increasing at the same time, plus a wacko fat boy (is he even 30 years old yet) pressing him to go to war.
The real problem of war with NK is when due to if we wait much longer they will just get stronger for a retaliation. Like many here have posted Kim and his generals are not that crazy to fire the first shot. It would be suicide to even think it.
What if they can launch a missile with a nuclear payload from a submarine would that be scary enough to strike first? I think so :o
Aktungbby
09-08-17, 11:20 AM
69th anniversary
The perfect number! http://www.telegraph.co.uk/content/dam/news/2016/03/15/jong-bun_3018319k_trans_NvBQzQNjv4BqqVzuuqpFlyLIwiB6NTm JwfSVWeZ_vEN7c6bHu2jJnT8.jpg?imwidth=450 ...in his twisted mind!:O:
I unnderstand I should have been more detailed in my last comment
I didn't mean KJU is going to put a nuke on the top of his ICBMs and fire them towards Guam or other USA controlled areas.
He is what i fear going make another test of his ICBM and fire 1.2 of them towards Guam-Where they will drop near the coast.
It's from hearing, reading all these expert on Danish and Swedish TV talking about KJU I get this fear-
He's going to do something like a spoiled child who didn't get what it wanted by his parents.
Markus
Mr Quatro
09-08-17, 11:43 AM
It's from hearing, reading all these expert on Danish and Swedish TV talking about KJU I get this fear-
Markus
Your newspapers and local TV stations probably sell advertising and air time too just like ours. Someone is making money off of fear of NK and hurricanes and Putin :o
What if they can launch a missile with a nuclear payload from a submarine would that be scary enough to strike first? I think so :o
You mean like this?
https://defencyclopedia.files.wordpress.com/2017/04/kn-11-770x400.jpg
Yeah, that's the Pukkuksong-1 you're after. Range is anything between 700 to 1500 miles. Launches from the Sinpo class, which seems to be some kind of Kilo or Golf derivative, but smaller.
http://www.hisutton.com/images/Sinpo_launch1.jpg
Only one in service at the moment though. Might be another five in the works though, actual missile capability is low, one or two, and the acoustic dampening ability is questionable, but it is a diesel electric so it could cause some problems by hiding in coastal areas.
Mr Quatro
09-10-17, 10:35 AM
Take a serious look at this 6 and 1/2 minute very rare video taken in May last year from a Piper Matrix PA-46 Light Plane ... no moving trucks or cars or ships ... does everyone walk or ride bicycles?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yPYxrmxOvcQ
Jimbuna
09-10-17, 11:07 AM
They're probably all hiding from their illustrious leader.
^^Greenpeace must love NK. :roll:
Britain under threat from North Korean nuclear missiles, says Defence Secretary http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/09/10/britain-threat-north-korean-nuclear-missiles-says-defence-secretary/
Well it was only going to be a matter of time.
Aktungbby
09-11-17, 09:12 AM
Take a serious look at this 6 and 1/2 minute very rare video taken in May last year from a Piper Matrix PA-46 Light Plane ... no moving trucks or cars or ships ... does everyone walk or ride bicycles?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yPYxrmxOvcQ Nonsense, I saw moving cars on impressive boulevards of the Potemkin village. :D
Saw this on a not so trustworthy news page on FB
"UN Security Council unanimously approves resolution on North Korea"
Tried to find other sources to this and I found Washington post had a little notice about it, but in the bottom it said something that made me unsure if I could link to their article.
Markus
Buddahaid
09-11-17, 06:36 PM
Saw it on BBC News.
Jimbuna
09-12-17, 05:13 AM
The United Nations has imposed a fresh round of sanctions on North Korea after its sixth and largest nuclear test.
The measures restrict oil imports and ban textile exports - an attempt to starve the North of fuel and income for its weapons programmes.
The US had originally proposed harsher sanctions including a total ban on oil imports.
The vote was only passed unanimously after Pyongyang allies Russia and China agreed to the reduced measures.
The sanctions, which were passed at a UN Security Council meeting on Monday, were met with anger by North Korea.
A statement on state news agency KNCA warned that if the US did eventually push through harsher sanctions, North Korea would "absolutely make sure that the US pays due price".
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-41235157
Jimbuna
09-12-17, 05:14 AM
North Korea: As UN sanctions bite, Chinese tourists flock to gawk at their poor neighbours.
Just a few kilometres north of the thriving Chinese border city of Dandong, a daily routine plays out that highlights the huge gap between Asia's two socialist allies.
Every hour during the day, dozens of Chinese boats speed off from a jetty on the Yalu river, packed with tourists, cameras and selfie sticks.
They speed down the water into North Korean territory, past fishermen, soldiers and agricultural workers tending bullock-carts.
As they gawk at their neighbours, a tour guide explains through a crackly speaker that North Korea isn't as economically developed as China.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-09-12/north-korea-sanctions-could-put-cloud-over-china-tourism/8897930
Aktungbby
09-12-17, 09:39 AM
The latest round of sanctions won't work either: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/12/world/asia/north-korea-sanctions-loopholes-china-united-states-garment-industry.html http://money.cnn.com/2017/07/13/news/economy/china-north-korea-trade-data-us-trump/index.html (http://money.cnn.com/2017/07/13/news/economy/china-north-korea-trade-data-us-trump/index.html) Some exemptions were to be allowed for imports from North Korea for the what was translated as “the people’s well-being,” or “livelihood purposes.” It appears that China is interpreting the “people’s well-being” as meaning North Korea should be able to export record amounts of coal in defiance of sanctions against the rogue nuclear-armed state. This would appear to be a very broad exemption as other than the brief decline in April, imports of North Korean coal have been rising, allowing the country to once again become China’s third-biggest supplier of the fuel behind Australia and Indonesia...
About 90 percent of Pyongyang’s trade is with China, and coal accounts for nearly 40 percent of that in value terms, according to a Sept. 24 report in the Nikkei Asian Review. This means coal is an essential lifeline for North Korea, and it also means China has an extremely powerful hold over its neighbour, should it choose to exercise it. But it’s also likely that the coal trade with North Korea has prospered this year as type of coal supplied by Pyongyang is in high demand. North Korea’s exports are almost exclusively anthracite, a high-grade hard coal that Chinese buyers use mainly for steel and ceramic manufacture, Australian coal is more expensive thus cheaper N. Korean coal is alluring to China... whatever their professed 'sanction intents'. Without hard enforcement, sanctions are a feel-good shell game and fatboy knows it.
Platapus
09-12-17, 12:33 PM
I sometimes doubt that anyone in the US making these suggestions has done any research on "Juche" as it applies to the North Koreans
Sanctions won't change the North Korean government and only the people will suffer.
Pretty sure that North Korea watched what happened in Libya.
"Sure, abandon your WMD programs, we promise not to do anything... you can trust us. Would the US violate a promise?"
Aktungbby
09-12-17, 12:55 PM
you can trust us. Would the US violate a promise?"
Not new in Mankato, MN if the 'Great Emancipator' signs the warrant! Originally, 303 were to be hanged, but President Lincoln pardoned all but the 38 who were 'proven' to have killed settlers. Letter from Hdainyanka to Chief Wabasha written shortly before his execution:
"You have deceived me. You told me that if we followed the advice of General Sibley, and gave ourselves up to the whites, all would be well; no innocent man would be injured. I have not killed, wounded or injured a white man, or any white persons. I have not participated in the plunder of their property; and yet to-day I am set apart for execution, and must die in a few days, while men who are guilty will remain in prison. My wife is your daughter, my children are your grandchildren. I leave them all in your care and under your protection. Do not let them suffer; and when my children are grown up, let them know that their father died because he followed the advice of his chief, and without having the blood of a white man to answer for to the Great Spirit." https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/3/3a/MankatoMN38.JPG/800px-MankatoMN38.JPG After which we moved on to 'annex' Hawaiians, Philippinos, Japanese, Vietnamese, and Koreans in an orderly century-long methodical war(s) against 'little brown people'....https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dakota_War_of_1862
I have somewhere read that KJU is acting like a spoiled child.
A spoiled child would if it isn't going his or her way kick to things or scream at people
Wonder what KJU will do ? Now this new sanction are upon him ?
I say we shall be prepared for everything-From a new testbomb to some more missile to ICBM test. Where he will send these I don't know. He will not send them against other countries soil.
The response from KJU will come, the only question is when and with what ?
Markus
I have somewhere read that KJU is acting like a spoiled child.
A spoiled child would if it isn't going his or her way kick to things or scream at people
Wonder what KJU will do ? Now this new sanction are upon him ?
I say we shall be prepared for everything-From a new testbomb to some more missile to ICBM test. Where he will send these I don't know. He will not send them against other countries soil.
The response from KJU will come, the only question is when and with what ?
Markus
Yeah, western media likes to do that, belittle Kim Jong-un, cast him as a small child, a spoilt brat...because it helps bury the fact that he has done what Saddam Hussein and Muammar Gadaffi could not do. Stop the US by affixing a price tag to regime change that is so high that they would not be willing to pay it. Even if Kims regime falls through internal strife, the resulting nuclear armed chaos would be even more of a nightmare for global security than a stable nuclear armed DPRK. I remember all the scare stories about Russian nuclear weapons during the Yeltsin years, or the worry that Russia was on the brink of insurrection and potential civil disorder or civil war at some points. Before Putin put the boot in that is.
So, if I were you I'd take that thought of Kim Jong-un being a spoilt brat and throw it in the dustbin, sure it's funny and there's been some hilarious memes and cartoons on those lines but it's what has got us to this point, because every time the DPRK has said that it's going to do something, the response from the west (and China for that matter who considers the DPRK as some kind of special needs kid) has always been 'Oh, they won't do x, they can't do x, they're too backward and/or poor.' and then the DPRK goes ahead and does x. I mean, the absolute bonanza of pictures that has come out of the DPRK...they are probably the first nation in the world to actively document and display their nuclear and missile program for the world to see. They're sending us a message, even if we think they can't do something, and perhaps right now they can't...but very soon, sooner than we think, they will do it.
So, treating Kim as a rational(ish) actor for a moment, what will he do next after these sanctions? Well, having a nuclear shield gives him a lot of options...back in 2010 he shelled an island and sunk a warship, just to cement his power during the transition period from Jong-il (who was very il) to Jong-un. The ROK shelled back in response to the island, but did nothing in response to the Cheonan, so he might decide to sink another warship. Although that would galvanize the ROK more, and judging by his current maneuvers, Kims goal seems to be to try and drive a wedge between the ROK and US, something that the whole KORUS trade deal argument is really helping. So I think that he'll look eastward rather than southward. If I were a Japanese person on Hokkaido right now, I'd be a bit concerned. I think that the DPRK might hold back from directly attacking Japan since that would provoke a severe retaliation, however I think that the Guam test or something similar to it may have become a bit more likely.
They also could quite possibly shoot an ICBM with a live nuclear warhead into the Pacific and detonate it in international waters. They would fly it over Japan, and Japan wouldn't be able to shoot it down since by the time it got over Japan it would be out of reach of the SM-3s, and they'd probably route it away from the GMD, perhaps towards Hawaii way, far enough away that there'd be no real effects, but close enough that the US knows who it was for. There would be little the US could do in retaliation since they themselves did the same thing in 1962.
Mr Quatro
09-12-17, 08:21 PM
They also could quite possibly shoot an ICBM with a live nuclear warhead into the Pacific and detonate it in international waters. They would fly it over Japan, and Japan wouldn't be able to shoot it down since by the time it got over Japan it would be out of reach of the SM-3s, and they'd probably route it away from the GMD, perhaps towards Hawaii way, far enough away that there'd be no real effects, but close enough that the US knows who it was for. There would be little the US could do in retaliation since they themselves did the same thing in 1962.
We also learn from our mistakes along with France that it is wrong to test nuclear weapons in the innocent waters of the Pacific. Stop thinking America is the same country of the Vietnam years.
History is in the making ... North Korea will decide it's future. Trump won't back down much longer.
Watch CNN this Friday night 10 pm est for a new inside look at North Korea. The leader is strange, the people are strange and these days are strange.
You shall know them by their fruit.
Rockstar
09-12-17, 09:00 PM
It was a different day, age and threat. It was the height of the cold war and a day two nuclear superpowers were in contention with one another. According to my information Op Dominic was in response to the Soviet's resuming nuclear air burst tests. So lets hope Operation Dominic has absolutely no influence on our future decisions. Because we didn't feel guilty about such a display of power then, I doubt we'd would feel guilty about it now. I know I wouldn't, I said it once before I'm willing to take as far as THEY want to go. The want to pop one off over Japan I'm all for a Operation Dominic II
Exactly, the US felt threatened by Soviet testing, so it responded with its own display of power, and it still does but in a less explosive manner. Especially since it's a member of the NPT and thus cannot conduct nuclear tests, however in response to DPRK tests, the US routinely flies B1s out of Guam and across South Korea. B1s that could quite feasibly launch some JASSMs from 600 odd miles out and start plinking DPRK missile sites / Communications centers / Kim Jong-uns. Given that the DPRKs radar capabilities are potatoes, then they would not get much in the way of warning before things started exploding. Thus they need to look at tell-tale signs of an imminent US attack, and then hit their targets before they get hit.
It's a bit like Able Archer '83, when the Soviets were worried that the US could launch a nuclear first strike and the Soviet Union wouldn't detect it until it was too late. So they started monitoring the communications and command structures that would authorise such a strike, and not long after that NATO undertook a large scale exercise which simulated a nuclear strike on the Soviet Union...which the Soviet Union then took to mean that such a strike was coming for real. Fortunately before the Soviets could preempt the oncoming attack, the exercise ended but not before all Soviet nuclear forces went on high alert. Thankfully NATO didn't respond to that alert, and thus things were allowed to peacefully de-escalate.
And, of course, that's also not forgetting the other incident in 1983 that almost killed us all, when a Soviet early warning radar station malfunctioned and reported an incoming US missile. Thankfully that went no further than the head of the station and thus no retaliatory strike was launched.
The DPRK is not the Soviet Union, there is unlikely to be a North Korean version of Stanislaw Petrov who will see a missile track on their radar screen and presume that the radar has broken rather than an American strike is coming in. The Soviet system could barely take the strain put on it by NATO, it's hard to believe that the DPRK system is any better, and in a situation such as is to be found on the Korean peninsula whoever launches first gets the advantage, which means that there is no time to verify something, no time for cooler heads to prevail. Our only saving grace may ironically be the highly centralized system around Kim Jong-un, that allows time for mistakes to be found between the first occurrence and whatever the North Korean version of the nuclear football is brought to Kim Jong-un for him to authorize a launch. Of course, that centralization is also a weakness which will be known to them, so you can be fairly sure that a fail-deadly system will be in place, so if someone tries to kill Jong-un in order to prevent a launch, they will in fact trigger one instead.
There are many, many ways this thing could go very wrong. Still...on the up side, the boffins who planned out the Iraq and Afghanistan wars and the likely outcomes of these are now working on the outcomes of a Korean war and how to fight an insurgency armed with chemical and biological weaponry. So it's good that employment opportunities are being created. :yep:
https://i.imgur.com/lIuLT0z.jpg
Different sides, same coin...
<O>
gimpy117
09-12-17, 11:39 PM
my .02
Kim is a monarch, if he admits it or not. it;s a hereditary kingship and his #1 goal is to continue this arrangement. In a country where everybody has approved haircuts- he doesn't in a place where everyone is near emaciated he's morbidly obese (and has a gorgeous wife). he basically acts like a king and lives off of his peasants. but, he knows full well that if attacked there is a snowballs chance in hell his fat butt will make it out alive (either by opposing forces or his own people). nuclear weapons are his insurance policy for the west, gifts an titles an insurance policy for those in the military/ government and the bullet an insurance policy against his own people. take those all away and he's be dead in about 2 seconds.
so no, I don't think Kim wants a war. that's the last thing he wants. he just wants to stuff his face, drink his expensive booze and grope any lady he pleases in his little kingdom.
my .02
Kim is a monarch, if he admits it or not. it;s a hereditary kingship and his #1 goal is to continue this arrangement. In a country where everybody has approved haircuts- he doesn't in a place where everyone is near emaciated he's morbidly obese (and has a gorgeous wife). he basically acts like a king and lives off of his peasants. but, he knows full well that if attacked there is a snowballs chance in hell his fat butt will make it out alive (either by opposing forces or his own people). nuclear weapons are his insurance policy for the west, gifts an titles an insurance policy for those in the military/ government and the bullet an insurance policy against his own people. take those all away and he's be dead in about 2 seconds.
so no, I don't think Kim wants a war. that's the last thing he wants. he just wants to stuff his face, drink his expensive booze and grope any lady he pleases in his little kingdom.
Pretty much. That being said, I think if Kim thought that the US was going to call his bluff, that a TLAM or JDAM with his name on it was streaking its way across North Korea, that he'd order the nukes to fly just to spite the US. A sort of "If I'm going down, I'm taking as much as I can with me."
Rockstar
09-13-17, 05:19 AM
maybe i misunderstood you. i thought you were implying that we coulnt really respond if NK launched one over japan into the pacific because we did we did something similar in 62.
maybe i misunderstood you. i thought you were implying that we coulnt really respond if NK launched one over japan into the pacific because we did we did something similar in 62.
From a 'Let he who is without sin' perspective maybe, but certainly one could argue for major sanctions on the DPRK if it conducted a Frigate Bird style test. However in regards to actually doing the same kind of thing in return, it's...possible but difficult since the US is a signed (but not ratified) member of the CTBT, and thus it would set a precedence for other members that have signed but not ratified, like China. Last thing we need is for the 1960s style of competitive nuclear atmospheric testing to start again. Although it might be a bonus point for the odd folks who recently were suggesting nuking Harvey or Irma... :hmmm:
North Korea Is Dodging Sanctions With a Secret Bitcoin Stashhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-11/north-korea-hackers-step-up-bitcoin-attacks-amid-rising-tensions
Late this night before I turned my computer off I read an interesting article
This person had a more positiv view on NK and KJU
She said despite UN and USA sanction on NK its economy are growing(that what it was written in Danish)
They have for a quite a while been bunkering oil for all eventuality
They will not at any cost stop they nuclear program-Even if it mean they have to eat grass or drink fixed sea water. They will not stop
In fact it will be the civilians who will suffer, ´cause every coin NK earns during these sanction will go to the military and the nuclear program.
Markus
Aktungbby
09-13-17, 11:29 AM
my .02
A secret bitcoin stash :arrgh!:Kim is a monarch, if he admits it or not.
so no, I don't think Kim wants a war. that's the last thing he wants. he just wants to stuff his face, drink his expensive booze and grope any lady he pleases in his little kingdom. Now that bitcoin is the new 'spice' Lil' Kim must decide if he's the DPRK's Kwisatz Haderach or just plain ol fatboy ....floating around https://media1.giphy.com/media/lRyYX0FGA046Y/200.gif#0-grid1 :O: :()1: Rule 4: If 'money is the sinews of war' and Fatboy is forced to illegal money wire theft transfers and bitcoin stashes as has been demonstrated-he's in serious trouble already. http://money.cnn.com/2017/03/08/investing/north-korea-banks-swift-ban/index.html (http://money.cnn.com/2017/03/08/investing/north-korea-banks-swift-ban/index.html)
Skybird
09-13-17, 11:36 AM
Things could be much worse. Imagine for a moment Erdoghanistan would not have bought its new SAM system in Russia, but in North Korea! :D
Late this night before I turned my computer off I read an interesting article
This person had a more positiv view on NK and KJU
She said despite UN and USA sanction on NK its economy are growing(that what it was written in Danish)
They have for a quite a while been bunkering oil for all eventuality
They will not at any cost stop they nuclear program-Even if it mean they have to eat grass or drink fixed sea water. They will not stop
In fact it will be the civilians who will suffer, ´cause every coin NK earns during these sanction will go to the military and the nuclear program.
Markus
Eyup, they see their nuclear weapons as the only thing stopping the US from stomping them into the dust, and they're probably not wrong either. They'll never give them up, ever. The most you can hope for is agreeing on a number of weapons that they'll have, they might be willing to agree on that, but denuclearisation isn't going to happen.
KJU is trying to Deng the DPRKs economy, he's looked at how China has turned into an economic powerhouse and wants to try and do a similar thing to the DPRK, but he's got a bigger struggle than Deng had because the DPRK is a smaller and more isolated country than the PRC was when Deng took over.
In regards to bunkering oil, yeah, I think they've also got a coal to oil conversion program that they run too, so the oil sanctions won't really do jack...but then again ANY sanctions will do precisely jack because the DPRK will not ever give up its nuclear weapons. Even if a dove government came into power in the US, the DPRK won't listen, because American governments come and go, and what's said and done under one president or congress isn't likely to stay the same under the next...as Iran is finding out.
Mr Quatro
09-13-17, 12:11 PM
Even if a dove government came into power in the US, the DPRK won't listen, because American governments come and go, and what's said and done under one president or congress isn't likely to stay the same under the next...as Iran is finding out.
2 Samuel 20: 21-22
That's a lie! But there is a man from the Ephraim hill country—he's known as Bichri's son Sheba—who has rebelled against King David. Turn him over and I'll withdraw from the city!" So the woman replied, "Watch this! His head will be thrown to you over the city wall." Then the woman wisely went back to her people. They cut off the head of Bichri's son Sheba and threw it out to Joab, so Joab sounded his battle trumpet and they withdrew from the city. Everybody went back home and Joab returned to the king at Jerusalem.
What if President Trump should tweet ... "Throw his head over the wall"
Skybird
09-13-17, 12:15 PM
The question is not whether Northn Kporea has miniaturized a nuclear bomb so that it can be put into the tip of a ballistric missile. The real danger is that they find a way to miniaturize the essence of Kim's ego so much that it fits into said missile. Imagine this missile fired on an American city - the effect would be unimaginable!
Been wondering after having read some of Skybirds comments and his answer to my comments
These sanction or embargo seems to have no effect at all
This give our leader four options
1. Keep on with these sanction and hope they will somewhere in the future have some impact on Nk's leadership
2 Put heavy pressure on China and perhaps Russia and hope this will help
3. Recognizing that North Korea is an atomic power and resuming negotiating economic and other matters with North Korea.
4. Refuse to allow North Korea to have nukes and goes to war against NK.
Is there more options our leaders can use to either prevent NK from getting their Nukes or have to start a war ?
Markus
Aktungbby
09-13-17, 02:14 PM
Lil' Kim must decide if he's the DPRK's KwisatzHaderach or just plain ol fatboy They cut off the head of Bichri's son Sheba and threw it out to Joab ....What if President Trump should tweet ... "Throw his head over the wall"
The real danger is that they find a way to miniaturize the essence of Kim's ego so much that it fits into said missile. Imagine this missile fired on an American city - the effect would be unimaginable! Nah! Hollywood would just make a (revised) movie: Come Back Lil' Sheba, U Son of a Bichri
:haha::()1: God knows! other 'heads of state' have been tossed around for 300 years or more! http://talesofcuriosity.com/v/CromwellsHead/i/cromwellhead1.jpg<Oliver Cromwell http://talesofcuriosity.com/v/CromwellsHead/ (http://talesofcuriosity.com/v/CromwellsHead/)
2 Samuel 20: 21-22
What if President Trump should tweet ... "Throw his head over the wall"
There would be a long pause...and a small note written in Korean would come over the wall, and it would say this:
"Firstly, only four people in North Korea have twitter, one of them being the Respected Dear Leader himself, and secondly, we've seen what happens to the generals who try to launch a coup against the Kim dynasty after we tried that back in 1995, the entire senior staff of the 6th corps was put in a building and the building was burnt down...and now the 6th corps no longer exists in DPRK records. So why should we risk our lives? Especially now that we have the upper hand in our nuclear deterrence arsenal. Nice try though."
gimpy117
09-13-17, 06:39 PM
Now that bitcoin is the new 'spice' Lil' Kim must decide if he's the DPRK's Kwisatz Haderach or just plain ol fatboy ....floating around https://media1.giphy.com/media/lRyYX0FGA046Y/200.gif#0-grid1 :O: :()1: Rule 4: If 'money is the sinews of war' and Fatboy is forced to illegal money wire theft transfers and bitcoin stashes as has been demonstrated-he's in serious trouble already. http://money.cnn.com/2017/03/08/investing/north-korea-banks-swift-ban/index.html (http://money.cnn.com/2017/03/08/investing/north-korea-banks-swift-ban/index.html)
North korea-might as well be another planet
THE HENNESSY MUST FLOW!!!
Jimbuna
09-14-17, 08:37 AM
On and on it goes....
North Korea threatens to sink Japan and turn US to 'ashes and darkness'
North Korea has threatened to sink Japan and said the US should be “beaten to death like a rabid dog” after the two countries spearheaded fresh UN security council sanctions in response to the regime’s recent nuclear test.
The Korea Asia-Pacific peace committee, which oversees North Korea’s relations with the outside world, described the UN security council, which passed a new round of sanctions on Monday, as a “tool of evil” in the pay of Washington, and called for it to be broken up.
“The four islands of the [Japanese] archipelago should be sunken into the sea by the nuclear bomb of Juche,” the committee said in a statement carried by the official KCNA news agency. Juche is the ideology of self-reliance pioneered by Kim Il-sung, the country’s founder and grandfather of the current leader, Kim Jong-un.
“Japan is no longer needed to exist near us,” the committee added.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/sep/14/north-korea-threat-sink-japan-us-ashes-darkness
Rockstar
09-14-17, 09:19 AM
sounds like a spoiled brat too me
Moonlight
09-14-17, 02:26 PM
There's only one way you're going to bring a spoiled brat into line and that is to punish its mother, which is China. Ahhh yes you might say, you're going to start a war with China now are you, No, of course not, the western governments will tell China that if they don't give this spoiled brat a clip round the earhole they'll stop buying any Chinese goods, it sounds simple enough but even that is fraught with danger.
The Chinese economy will crash and burn within a month and their Government won't want that to happen will they, it'll cause huge tension around the world and a lot of harsh words will be exchanged and some will never be forgotten but the point is that that's the better scenario than a nuclear war isn't it.
I don't think this will happen as its too radical an idea for one but which scenario would the western governments prefer first, an economic one or a nuclear one.
On and on it goes....
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/sep/14/north-korea-threat-sink-japan-us-ashes-darkness
The West should just ignore that jumped up little twonk and never report on anything coming out of NK.
Gargamel
09-14-17, 05:17 PM
BBC News alert on my phone just said NK has launched another barrage of missiles, and Japan has started warning civilians to seek shelter.
^ Have just read about it on the news
As mentioned before wonder what kind of response to these Sanction NK will come up with
Is this the answer ? Or is there more to come ?
Here are the article
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-41275614
Markus
One missile, similar trajectory to the last Japanese flyover, probably another Hwasong-12. Well, this is the new order, folks, best get used to it.
One missile, similar trajectory to the last Japanese flyover, probably another Hwasong-12. Well, this is the new order, folks, best get used to it.
The question is
How far will this Hwasong-12 fly ? Same distance or longer ?
Edit: It fell or dropped somewhere in the Pacific
Markus
Mr Quatro
09-14-17, 06:14 PM
The question is
How far will this Hwasong-12 fly ? Same distance or longer ?
Edit: It fell or dropped somewhere in the Pacific
Markus
How far it will go is based on how high it will go to mathematically connect to become a long range delivery weapon. They would have to find out by firing one in the same distance as they would need from Korea to point B to measure how the missile could get to the USA.
They already have threatened Guam so they must be pretty sure the missile can go that far.
Also noticed that they have now fired two in a row from the same location ...
"North Korea fired an unidentified missile eastward from the vicinity of Pyongyang this morning," South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff said, according to the Yonhap News Agency.
I think they want our side to target that area which is near their international airport and station the launchers else where after they have built sufficient numbers of these long range missiles of course, plus they still have the problem of mating a warhead device to the missile that they are sure will explode X amount of feet above the target.
Does NK have other WMD that they could launch against the South from short range launchers? In other words this is going to be one big mess if it all goes bang on Trumps orders.
Real messy in a hurry making a lot of enemies in the process ... this problem has been on the books for way too long. :yep:
The question is
How far will this Hwasong-12 fly ? Same distance or longer ?
Edit: It fell or dropped somewhere in the Pacific
Markus
Looks like it went slightly further than the last one, so it probably succeeded in its objective.
What objective? Well, you'll note that it flew the same distance as between the DPRK and Guam. :03: I honestly thought that they would salvo fire three or four of them this time around, but obviously the thing splitting into three last time wasn't quite meant to happen, so it was another single test. Next time they'll probably salvo fire. After that then everything is set for the Guam mission. :yep:
Jimbuna
09-15-17, 04:42 AM
A launch against Guam would probably be the last mission.
Aktungbby
09-15-17, 11:09 AM
A launch against Guam would probably be the last mission.
http://cdn.images.express.co.uk/img/dynamic/galleries/x701/235270.jpgWHA!!!! JIMBUNA!! :k_confused:It's just not right to speculate! :D
Mr Quatro
09-15-17, 12:42 PM
A launch against Guam would probably be the last mission.
WHA!!!! JIMBUNA!! :k_confused:It's just not right to speculate! :D
I can't believe you said that ... don't you know that we at subsim just happen to be inside someone's think tank?
Think about it ... :up:
What if NK fires off three in a row over Japan (not towards Guam) but over Japan. NK has already threatened Japan due they are jealous of how much bigger and better Japan is than they are.
You don't piss off Japan and get away with it ... :o
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