Huge pro-EU rally grips Ukraine [Archive]

Oberon

01-22-14, 07:00 PM

Thread necromancy in light of the recent deaths in the Ukraine.

Things seem to be spiralling now, possibly beginning to come to a head. What started as a seemingly pro-EU rally is now primarily engaged on removing Yanukovich. Vitality Klitschko, the figurehead of the opposition, has said that the president should announce that is standing down and elections will be called, and has warned that "tomorrow, if the president does not respond... then we will go on the attack".
There's supposedly a crowd growing outside the US embassy and eggs have been thrown at the welcome sign amidst accusations from certain usual sources that the West is stirring up the protests in order to remove the pro-Russian Yanukovich.

I can't help but ponder how this is being viewed in the Kremlin, would Putin act to support Yanukovich if an armed uprising took place? Will Yanukovich release the army on the protesters? Tanks have been spotted on train transports but any relation to the protests have been denied strongly.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BemRXFtCYAA-gUR.jpg

I suspect that Thursday may be a very interesting day for the Ukraine if Klitschko gets his way.

There's a live streaming video from the Ukraine, in Ukrainian:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jrZcAsPKK74

Live updates in English here:
http://rt.com/news/kiev-protest-clashes-updates-862/

What appears to be live footage from the rooftops near the frontline of the protest:
http://rt.com/on-air/ukraine-kiev-police-protesters/

In slightly lighter news, the protesters did create their own catapult to launch rocks at the police, who responded with Roman-esque shield turtle tactics.

http://i.minus.com/igq5vP0DyZaRI.gif

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BenJksXCAAAfY5S.jpg

http://krautchan.net/files/1390418229001.gif

And, of course, the inevitable gas mask photo:

http://www.upyxis.com/img/events/m_1193_4cb34cac85776421590c4d84dc0f5570.jpg

Skybird

01-22-14, 07:32 PM

I would really like to learn about latest, trustworthy data on how the Ukrainian people in total stand on the issue "EU or Russia". But trustworthy data in a situation like this? It's all propaganda now, both inside and outside the Ukraine, both in Russia and in the EU.

Yanukovich has Putin, the Ukrainian establishment, the oligarchs and all the apparatschiks on his side. That forms a very very strong side already.

I expect that in the major cities, the big cities, people by majority are pro EU, but that in the rural places the pro-Russian sentiment dominates. The majorty of the population I think lives here.

Historically, there also is a second split that needs to be recognised: the Western part of the Ukraine, which historically has been part of the Donau monarchy and of Poland, and the Eastern part with the coal industry centres where people strongly tend towards Russia.

I see no reason to alter my opinion so far that the majority of the Ukrainians still is pro-Russia. The media coverage here in Germany, I believe, is not giving a complete picture, but transports a distorted info on the strength of the two sides. If Yanukovich decides to play it really the hard way, I see little chance for the protest movement to win. He holds the trumps. The opposition - anything but really being united - only has its desire, its rage and its frustration.

Things could become interesting in the unlikely event that the workers in the coal mines in the East decide to rebel against Yanukovich. But as already said, traditionally these are very pro-Russian, so this scenario is something I do not really expect to happen. and even if they kick Yanukovich - this does not mean that they want join the EU. They could kick Yanu and still prefer to ally with Russia.

All this is the front facade of the show only. The real strings are pulled by the oligarchs, and the Kremlin. In the end, even Yanukovich is just an expendable puppet.

nikimcbee

01-23-14, 01:49 AM

TarJak

01-23-14, 04:52 AM

@Oberon
:salute: Thanks for the Ukrainian link. It's interesting for me to hear Ukrainian vs Russian. I can hear the accent and they have some weird spellings. Reminds me of my Russian 202 level classes.

Maybe you can translate for BossMark when his girlfriend gets cranky and forgets her Engleesh.:D

Seriously though its looking like the poo is hitting the fan over there right now. I don;t see them getting a clear majority either way on this one.

Oberon

01-23-14, 06:52 AM

Well, they've got a semi-truce until 20:00 local time today (18:00GMT), whilst negotiations take place between the opposition and the leaders. It looks like they were able to put out a lot of the tyre fires that were burning last night when I went to bed, but there's still a lot of people hanging around.

Skybird makes a very good point though in the fact that the country is split between those in the city and those in the countryside (not to mention the traditional east/west split) and there has been a disproportionate media focus on the urban areas to the neglect of the countryside, but well, you know how the media is, they go where it's on fire.
The key part of any successful uprising or struggle though is what side the military falls on, and given how this is localised to Kiev, I imagine that the military is going to be hedging its bets in favour of the current government, as such, aside from possible localised defections, the army and police will remain loyal to Yanukovich, and that means that this uprising will fail. The main question being, can Klitschko bluff some measure of compromise before Yanukovichs patience runs out, and can Yanukovich dismantle the protests without making himself a pariah state in the eyes of the west (although given that he's a pro-Russian man, that's probably not that high on his agenda, but still, it helps to keep both sides happy).

I predict a compromise may be reached, early elections perhaps, but Yanukovich will not stand down, he will run again, and if he has the support in the rest of the country that we think he has, he will win again, and then we'll be back at square one and we'll have to see where that leads.

If Betonov reads this thread, how are things in the Ukraine being watched by the anti-government sentiment in Slovenia? If this uprising does, by some miracle, succeed in its goal, could you see it inspiring further uprisings in Slovenia?

Skybird

01-23-14, 07:01 AM

If the Ukrainian military were in danger of making a stand against the pro-Russian government, I assume Russia will lure them back into line by promising generous "military aid", fiscal benefits for the decisive high officers, and offers for new modern equipment. As somebody once said: "The military is a club of big boys who share a fetish for toys".

Jimbuna

01-23-14, 09:25 AM

Interesting to see Vitaly Klitschko is the opposition leader....you'd think he'd had enough of fighting by now.

Yanukovich took the unusual move on Sunday night of meeting Vitaly Klitschko, the boxer-turned-politician who has emerged as the leader of the opposition. The president later promised to set up talks with the opposition to settle the crisis.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/01/21/uk-ukraine-yanukovich-analysis-idUKBREA0K0Z320140121

Dread Knot

01-23-14, 10:50 AM

There is something oddly amusing about seeing the return of the Roman legionary testudo after a thousand years, even if the Kiev police don't quite have the ancient tactic down yet.

Looks like Rome meets Nome. :D

http://i.imgur.com/xGonHHs.jpg

http://bicycle2011.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/testudo.jpg

Oberon

01-23-14, 01:05 PM

Yeah, although the Romans never had to deal with Molotov cocktails:

http://i.minus.com/iFSgx1z7bFt6q.gif

The Prime Minister, Azarov, has stated that his government will step down if parliament votes for it, but Azarovs coalition holds a slim majority in parliament, so there's more than a reasonable chance that they'd vote against it, something that the protesters likely know.
The truce is due to end any minute now, and Klitschko has stated that he'll make a speech to the protesters giving details of how todays negotiations have gone. Apparently the city of Rovno has had a regional administration building taken over by protesters, not much more detail from there though.

Time will tell if tonight will be busy or quiet for the law officers of Kiev.

EDIT: Turns out the negotiations were postponed during the day and they're only taking place now. No doubt so that any bad news that leaks out will happen much later in the night so that the law enforcement officers have had a chance to dig in and be ready for it during todays 'truce'.

Jimbuna

01-23-14, 02:37 PM

My take on it is that the government are worried of possible Russian repercussions should they align themselves closer to Europe and are simply playing out time.

A few deaths and then the clampdown with a freebie excuse to tell the world they had no other choice in view of the violence and devastation being caused as a result of the troubles..

Oberon

01-23-14, 02:55 PM

The Orthodox priests are really earning their bread in this chaos:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BesFtcoCcAAjB2s.png

http://ww2.hdnux.com/photos/25/74/65/5754225/7/628x471.jpg

Jimbuna

01-23-14, 03:22 PM

Bullet proof caseks :hmmm:

Oberon

01-23-14, 04:35 PM

First negotiations have ended:

Yatsenyuk says they "had positive talks with the President". Tyagnibok "results of the talks must be consulted with Euromaidan"

Klitschko: "we have agreement that all police violence towards people stops today, all detained will be released" People are booing

Klitschko: "the whole process is prolonging, this is only the 1st round of negotiations. We wont stop until president steps down"

The crowd is chanting “Liars!” as opposition leaders speak to them after hours of talks with the government. They also urged Udar Party leader Vitaly Klitscho to take to the barricades.
This could get ugly...

Opposition leader Oleg Tyagnibok announced that "we pronounce ceasefire until morning," RT's Alexey Yaroshevsky reports from Kiev.

So, it might be a quiet night, it depends on whether the protesters are satisfied with the actions taken by their figureheads or whether they want to just smash and burn, we all know there's usually a group that's the smash and burn type, we'll see what they do.

Oberon

01-25-14, 06:50 AM

After a peaceful couple of nights, things are starting to break down again. More cities have seen unrest in the western side of the country, the more EU leaning side as Skybird has pointed out, whereas the coal mining region of Donbass in the east has started rallying in support of Yanukovich. So the east/west split is being shown in all its glory.
The interior minister Zakharchenko has stated that he believes that negotiations are 'futile' and that the opposition is unable to control its more radical elements (he probably has a point there, to be fair).

The map below shows cities where anti-government protests have taken place:

http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/72495000/jpg/_72495827_ukraine_protests_624v6.jpg

To quote the BBC (where the image is from):

In the western city of Ivano-Frankivsk, some 1,500 protesters occupied the regional administration and barricaded themselves in the building. They are now demanding that the local governor should resign immediately.
In Chernivsti, also in the west, crowds stormed the governor's office as police tried to protect the building. People shouted "Shame on you!" and "Resign!"
In Lutsk, in the north-west, a big demonstration was being held outside the local administration.
Regional offices were being blockaded in the western city of Uzhgorod and unrest was reported in the eastern city of Sumy.
In Lviv, protesters have built barricades around the governor's office that they seized on Thursday. There were also reports that some members of the special police, Berkut, were resigning.

As always, RT is doing live updates in English at:
http://rt.com/news/kiev-protest-clashes-updates-862/

And the live view is still running at:
http://rt.com/on-air/ukraine-kiev-police-protesters/

Skybird

01-25-14, 07:01 AM

Jimbuna

01-25-14, 07:05 AM

Ultimately...Georgia revisited.

Oberon

01-25-14, 07:39 AM

I lost track of what the status is regarding the Russian navy basis and the Blacksea fleet in Sewastopol? Is it a shared command between Ukraine and Russia, or how did the row end that they had a couple of years ago. Access there is something that Russia must consider as a vital interest, more so than a navy base in Syria. I doubt they will sit idly by if political change in Ukraine threatens that by the country turning to the EU. In that case I not only think it is possible but likely that the Russian will react possibly even militarily with a joined intervention. EU megalomania can really cause very nasty results here. This is not Poland.

I believe that after Russia threatened to turn the gas off they signed a treaty extending Russias ownership of the naval base until 2042, it was so popular in the Ukraine that a fight broke out in their parliament.
I have a niggling suspicion in the back of my mind that should it all go south in the Ukraine, Russia will very likely intervene.
The US and EU are already mumbling about sanctions, Lavrov (Russias foreign minister) has already told Kerry to butt out, but I can't see that happening, and if Russia does go in, I could see it spiralling out of control into a small civil war in the Ukraine which would not be a pretty sight.
Either which way, I don't see the EU or US being drawn into any kind of military operation, like you say this is not Poland, but it's certainly going to spark off the 'Russian/Soviet bogeyman' hype again, like we had in Georgia.

Skybird

01-25-14, 10:51 AM

Ultimately...Georgia revisited.

No. Very different.

Skybird

01-25-14, 10:55 AM

but it's certainly going to spark off the 'Russian/Soviet bogeyman' hype again, like we had in Georgia.
And that's what it was: a bogeyman hype because the West fell for the real provocateur in Georgia who lied to and betrayed the West in order to make NATO starting a war on Georgia's behalf. As I said to Jim already: Georgia and Ukraine do not compare at all. It starts already with that the Georgian bad ape was hostile to Russia, while the Ukrainian one is pro Russia. The majority of Georgians seem to have been against Russia, but whether there is a true numerical majority in the Ukraine against Russia, imo is at least in doubt.

As far as Kerry and Obama are concerned, if they do not want to make jokes of themselves once again, after the ME debacles of recent years and the show of weakness and hesitation and wishy-washy manouvering, they better watch their mouths a little bit. The US has more serious and vital problems on its mind, one would assume. Same is to be said about the EU. This is the Ukrainian people needing to find their way and make their choices. For the EU, the Ukraine has merely narcissistic value. Strategically we would be better off to stay out of it and have it not joining the EU. We have troubles enough already, internally, fiscally, demographically, economically. The EU is way too big already, hopelessly overstretched and distanced from reality. To have a big cause for future anger and confrontation with Russia over the Ukraine is not in Europe's interest. For Russia, the vital stakes are much higher in this, than for the EU. And last but not least: gas. Mind you: the Ukraine does not produce the gas that goes to Europe via its pipes: it just is a transfer country, but the gas comes from Russia. And the Ukrainian pipes already are bypassed to some degree.

The worst the West could do is to react by some ancient cold war reflexes. That Putin maybe will do that, must not serve as our motivation to copy it. Sober cost-effect calculation is on order. The result, as I see it, is that we have little stakes in this that are not high enough to justify our costs if we get engaged too far.

Skybird

01-25-14, 04:37 PM

Partition Ukraine!

LINK (http://www.lewrockwell.com/2014/01/eric-margolis/partition-ukraine/)

Oberon

01-25-14, 05:54 PM

Partition Ukraine!

LINK (http://www.lewrockwell.com/2014/01/eric-margolis/partition-ukraine/)

:hmmm: It's one solution, but partitions tend to be a more short term solution than anything else, and usually wind up leading to a war.

Tribesman

01-25-14, 06:03 PM

:hmmm: It's one solution, but partitions tend to be a more short term solution than anything else, and usually wind up leading to a war.

I wonder if partition would launch one of those priests posted earlier into a "Vinnytsia says NO" campaign?:03:

Alex

01-26-14, 08:16 PM

In the seventies, the West, outraged following the Vietnam failure, financed all guerillas that were opposed to the Russians (Afghanistan, Budapest, Uighurs, anti-Castro dissidents...) and subjected entire peoples to intimidation and torture to prevent them from taking side with the Russians.

Now that Russia is back into shape, being an official threat to the hyper-power once again...

→ the West gets back to bring weapons to the worst rogues (ukrainian protesters, members of the andalusian independence movement, cannibals in Libya and Syria), and one can be sure Soros already intends to set up some rebellion in China in months or years to come.

→ and oppresses those living in the satellite states, who threaten the submissiveness of their country to the empire (diverse oppressions and humiliations in France, incarceration of EU opponents in Greece, ruthless suppression of popular uprisings in Saudi Arabia and Qatar, carbonization of children in Palestine, violent oppression of demonstrators in New York, destabilization of many African countries (Mali, Central African Republic, Ivory Coast, Algeria, Tunisia, Egypt, Sudan...)

The situation is critical, this is the return of the cold war.

Jimbuna

01-28-14, 02:56 PM

Just the president left it would seem.

Ukraine's President Viktor Yanukovych has accepted the resignation of the prime minister and his cabinet amid continuing anti-government protests.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-25932352

Mr Quatro

01-28-14, 03:33 PM

Seems a little strange some people are desperate to join the EU but on the other hand if You are likely to get more out than you put in...why not?

Looks like they won ... I think EU would've let them join hoping they could enslave another country no matter what it cost.

Like in Vegas on the crap table they (meaning EU) were working on the come out roll.

Jimbuna

01-28-14, 04:52 PM

Looks like they won ... I think EU would've let them join hoping they could enslave another country no matter what it cost.

Like in Vegas on the crap table they (meaning EU) were working on the come out roll.

Not sure what you mean :hmmm:

Skybird

01-28-14, 05:05 PM

Make hay while the day lasts - the opposition(s) may want to ensure progress as long as Putin probably will consider to act with some self-restraint due to Sotchi. Once the Mafia Circus is over, they will find it tougher with him again.

Yanukovich probably plays right that time card, I could imagine.

(Mafia Circus I call Sotchi because it seems they only wanted to get the games in order to get access to precious private properties in the Olympic places and expropriate private owners with the Olympic installation building as the legal excuse. Cannot say which was the worst decision for sporting events recently: Bejing, Sotchi or Quatar).

Oberon

02-06-14, 07:18 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MSxaa-67yGM#t=89

*smirk*

Can't blame the Americans for their view on the EU, not one bit. :haha:

Skybird

02-07-14, 03:51 AM

F### the EU...? F###, that lady is f###ing right! :D

Schroeder

02-07-14, 07:01 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MSxaa-67yGM#t=89

*smirk*

Can't blame the Americans for their view on the EU, not one bit. :haha:
I would tend to agree.:O:
Poetic justice though.:D

(on the other hand I actually expect that every secret service in the world is spying on pretty much all higher politicians, otherwise they would be doing a bad job.)

Dread Knot

02-07-14, 08:56 AM

Catfish

02-08-14, 04:35 PM

I am amazed how this story is being spun on this side of the Atlantic - all about the naughty word and the less than complimentary opinions about the EU and Russia.
Hardly anything about any consequences this may have in Ukraine.

Oh it is all about the Ukraine, and how the US wants to get their foot in the door.
When the EU dared to protest (since what Vitali Klitschko and the US try to do is not the brightest idea under the sun), this by now well-known Missus said "F the EU".

B.t.w. is there oil, in the Ukraine.

Catfish

02-08-14, 04:35 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MSxaa-67yGM#t=89 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MSxaa-67yGM/lt=89)
*smirk*
Can't blame the Americans for their view on the EU, not one bit.

And, also with a smirk - how does it feel being eavesdropped oneself, for a change :haha:

Oberon

02-08-14, 05:21 PM

B.t.w. is there oil, in the Ukraine.

Not that I'm aware of, that's one of the things that Russia dangled on a rope for them to sign for keeping the Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol, but the Russians are crash-expanding the base at Novorossiysk, so if they do lose Sevastopol it won't be that devastating to the Black Sea Fleet. :hmmm:

Dan D

02-09-14, 12:05 PM

Not that I'm aware of, that's one of the things that Russia dangled on a rope for them to sign for keeping the Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol, but the Russians are crash-expanding the base at Novorossiysk, so if they do lose Sevastopol it won't be that devastating to the Black Sea Fleet. :hmmm:

Yes, and:

The big issues between the Ukraine and Russia is Crimea (peninsula on the northern coast of the Black Sea). If you look at the history of Crimea at e.g.wiki: Russia annexed Crimea in 1783 and it became part of Russia. After 1944, when Crimea was freed from German occupation by the Red Army, it became a province of the Russian SSR.
But in 1954 it was within the Union of SSR (USSR) transferred from the Russian USSR to the Ukranian SSR which the Russian-nationalist side today after the collapse of the USSR considers as a huge mistake.
In 1992 Crimiea was upgraded to an Autonomous SSR within the USSR. After the USSR ceased existence, crimea became part of the independant Ukraine which caused tensions between Russia and the Ukraine.

Crimea is now an autonomous republic within the Ukraine, but its population is 58,5 % Russians and 24,4% Ukrainians, On the Crimea people vote pro-Russian but not pro-West or Ukrainian-nationalist candidates.

May be if the Ukraine transfers Crimea back to Russia, then Russia will allow the Ukraine a rapprochment to the West.

Oberon

02-09-14, 03:14 PM

Hmmm, good point, I can't see anyone in the Ukraine letting Crimea go that easily though, although it could drift away if things go bad enough in the Ukraine to lead to a civil war, but I don't see either the government or the political elements of the opposition wanting to let to go that far.

It's a delicate situation alright, and with Bosnia flaring up again as well, could be we are in for an interesting ride with Eastern Europe, IIRC Betonov posted about trouble in Slovenia a while ago, not sure how it was resolved or whether it's an on-going thing. I think the problem might be that the systems put in place after the collapse of the Warsaw Pact are starting to have the wheels fall off, and people are getting restless that after twenty years they don't have the same sort of freedoms as western Europe. :hmmm: I might be wrong though, I have no real experience of Eastern Europe other than what I've read and heard, so I might be barking up the wrong tree, but with Slovenia last year, Ukraine last year and this year, and now Bosnia...I'm hoping that we're not seeing something that's going to snowball here and result in some sort of 'Eastern Europe Spring'. :hmmm:

Skybird

02-09-14, 05:57 PM

Putin wants to install an Eurasian customs union, and a sphere of Russian influence similiar to the former USSR. That's why the Crimea alone is not the decisve issue here. Its not just a local territorial strategic assessment over Crimea that leads the Russians to set up a fight for the Ukraine.

Putin has also not forgotten the years under Yelzin when the West promised to leave a buffer zone of nations between NATO and Russia, and then NATO broke all these agreements and promises and started top move right up onto Russian borders. That lesson sank deep, and it coincides with the change in Putin. Few people remember (or want to be reminded of today) that the young Putin was a much more open-minded man who imagined Russia to benefit from opening the country for stronger European input of knowhow and investment, he was compared (in the West!) to Alexander the great a bit. But then came the Yelzin years, the unscrupulous invasion by Western predators that were a great factor in bringing the Russian oligarchs to powers that Putin later had to fight down so mercilessly because they effectively threatened to take over the state), the sale-out of Russian economic interests because the Russian were not fit to deal with the aggressive Western entrepreneurs who tried to make a quick fortune in Russia, and the betrayal by America-led NATO. That marked a significant change in his thinking about what to do in the future. Granted, the man himself probably also has changed in character over those 25, 30 years. But the Putinistic Russia we have to deal with today last but not least is a consequence of Western policies towards Russia in the early years after the USSR breakdown. Playing soft and polite, Putin saw, brought Russia nowhere and earne donly losses. So he decided to start to play tough. And that'S where we have moved in the past years.

We really did not shine with glory ourselves in all this. It's not all the West's fault that Russia now is what it is. But we did our share to make it that, mostly because the West thought: Russia either runs our way, or no way. That kind of thinking was misled, arrogant, and obviously wrong.

Its like I always say: Russia is neither Europe, nor Asia. Russia is Russia, and Russian people have a different mentality than Americans or Western Europeans.

That mistake has been repeated several timers with regard to other regions of the globe, after the Yelzin years. The Iraq war heavily owes to this misconception. Afghanistan. Western views of the Israeli-PLO conflict, and the Arab uprising of recent years.

Right now, the Europeans snap about the US comment about the EU, and they do not see that they just retrieve the stick that Putin has thrown. And Obama's country balances on its hindpaws, while Putin has pointed the erected pointing finger over Syria.

Really, Western leaders should not complain about Putin, but about their own indifference, reality denial and idiocy.

That Iran de facto has been left off the hook, is no compliment for Western diplomacy either. More a signal that diplomats should urgently be rushed into mental asylums.

The state of Western diplomacy is this: its a mixture of maximum childishness, and self-destruction. Overhearing in the news Germany's new foreign policy punchinello Steinmeier and what he had to say in Afghanistan, made me feel sick and burst in laughter at the same time. It's all a ball of narcissistic operetta stars. Everybody wants to wear a golden livrée, and everybody wants to sing his own aria. The noise is just breathtaking, and the sight is petrifying the eyes.

Oberon

02-18-14, 02:46 PM

And here we go again.

The Ukrainian government seems to have escalated matters a bit, sending in the big boys to break things up. Can't be too much of a co-incidence that Russia announced only a couple of days ago that it's going to resume buying Ukrainian bonds after it stopped on the 28th Jan (when the Prime Minister of Ukraine resigned)

The BBC is doing a live timeline of events, but as always, RussiaToday is the closest and usually more up to date on events on the ground:

BBC:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26244542

RT:
http://rt.com/news/kiev-clashes-rioters-police-571/

Jimbuna

02-18-14, 02:51 PM

Doesn't bode well when live broadcasting across the country has been shut down :hmmm:

Oberon

02-18-14, 03:01 PM

I'd say that Yanukovich has pushed the button, and now it's the endgame. The police and riot forces will go in to disperse the camp, the only question is how successful they will be and how many more will die before the end.

If they fail and have to fall back...we may yet see the military involved. However, I think both sides want to avoid that, although whether it's in Klitschkos power to control the protesters is another matter entirely, he might be able to sway some of the moderates, but the 1488s aren't going to listen to anyone. :nope:

Tribesman

02-18-14, 03:05 PM

Doesn't bode well when live broadcasting across the country has been shut down :hmmm:
Espreso TV is still running live feed.

http://espreso.tv/

I wonder if the police will beat them up again on live TV and then make the reporters mysteriously disappear like last month?

Oberon

02-18-14, 03:12 PM

Espreso TV is still running live feed.

Only available online I believe, the channel which was covering the protests, Channel 5 I believe, has been taken off air.

Skybird

02-18-14, 04:23 PM

The military has given warning to the opposition already days ago, also to the government over its perceived weak policy. If anyone had doubts still where the military will line up, this should have cleared it.

Klitschko is overestimated I think, I cannot see that he really has political influence in the Ukraine, nor does it help him that the opposition is divided into several sub factions. He wants to have influence. But that is the difference: the difference between what he wants and what he can. I also have not heard a single argument so far what qwould qualify him to be seen as a major figure of the opposition leadership.

Russia has offered a new credit tranche. Olympics come to an end this weekend. And then the rules of the game would have changed again anyway. At least from a Russian POV.

Jimbuna

02-18-14, 04:37 PM

Only available online I believe, the channel which was covering the protests, Channel 5 I believe, has been taken off air.

Doesn't bode well when live broadcasting across the country has been shut down :hmmm:

:yep:

mapuc

02-18-14, 05:46 PM

Wonder where this could lead to if it escalate? A diplomatically crisis between Russia and EU?
Or civil war?

Markus

Stealhead

02-18-14, 09:11 PM

A civil war I bet the Ukraine is kind of 50/50ish some wish to be more associated with Russia others with the West.

Oberon

02-18-14, 10:42 PM

It is quite literally an East/West split in the country in regards to who they want to associate themselves with. However, I don't see it going into a civil war, not just yet. The military brass seem to be impatient to get the protests over, and now that the Olympics are drawing to a close, Russia can re-engage Hard Hat Putin mode and basically order Yanukovich to end the protests at any cost.
If the military is sent in and starts rebelling then I could see a civil war, but as with most civil wars, it all depends on which way the military is going to lean.

Whoever wins though, the Ukraine is going to lose, those Russian 'loans' only last for two years, which means in about two years time the Ukrainian economy is going to collapse, which means it's either going to find itself attached to Germany or Russia for its continued survival.

Oberon

02-18-14, 10:51 PM

Oh, and remember that Lenin statue that was torn down towards the start of this whole affair?

This is what replaced it:

http://i.imgur.com/d5XeNqA.jpg

Stealhead

02-19-14, 12:03 AM

I know a person I met in the Air Force that immigrated from the Ukraine in the early 90's with his parents seems like the ones that could who had doubts about the long term prospects which had the means to left.

Yeah it is not like the EU is that strong really how many more nations can Germany support not many.Just think how much better the German economy would be if it did not have to support the dead weight.

Jimbuna

02-19-14, 05:51 AM

The official death toll has now risen to 25 and the EU are threatening sanctions against those behind the violence.

What to do? Take the Russian money or risk all by relying on the EU to take some form of limited punitive action?

I can't see Putin staying out of this for much longer, especially after Sochi finishes.

Looks like a choice between a rock and a hard place.

Alex

02-19-14, 11:47 AM

Is there any Ukrainian forum member in here actually ? :)

Oberon

02-19-14, 03:38 PM

Yanukovich has fired his Army Chief of Staff, which is an interesting move and hints of potential troubles between the government and army...which I did not expect, considering the benefits the army have received from the Russians. Unless, of course, the army wants Yanukovich to go, so they can put their own pro-Russian candidate in power, but Yanukovich isn't willing to go gracefully.

Either which way, things are starting to move faster now, it may all come to a head within the week.

TarJak

02-19-14, 03:41 PM

Now the both the US and EU are talking sanctions against the Ukrainian government. But of course the government isn't the one that usually gets hurt by those. :nope:

Oberon

02-19-14, 03:47 PM

Now the both the US and EU are talking sanctions against the Ukrainian government. But of course the government isn't the one that usually gets hurt by those. :nope:

Paper Tigers, nothing they can say or do will effect the situation on the ground in the Ukraine and everyone knows it. This is a game between the Ukraine and Russia, and time is running out.

TarJak

02-19-14, 03:58 PM

About the only impact is a bit of international media which makes it look like the west is doing something.

Putin is in the drivers seat and everyone knows it.

Onkel Neal

02-19-14, 05:46 PM

Putin. Russia. Democracy. One of these does not belong with the rest.

Alex

02-19-14, 09:04 PM

Oberon

02-20-14, 03:55 AM

The Ukrainian parliament is being evacuated, the protesters seem to have managed to break through and are in position to take it. There's also reports of police forces moving with protesters, although it's not clear if they are hostages or have defected. Despite the calls for calm, it seems today is going to be a big day in Kiev...

Jimbuna

02-20-14, 05:45 AM

Seventeen more deaths and the foreign ministers of Germany, Poland and France are meeting Mr Yanukovych.

US President Barack Obama warned there "will be consequences" for anyone who steps over the line in Ukraine - including the military intervening in a situation that civilians should resolve but I'm not sure how seriously his words will be heeded by Putin, especially after those he made about Syria and chemical weapons.

Oberon

02-20-14, 06:33 AM

The situation is completely out of the hands of the EU, US and even the 'leader' of the opposition, Klitschko. Right now, it's the more radical side of the protesters which has grown tired of the continued negotiations which have gone nowhere, and after Yanukovich tried breaking the protest up yesterday, they've had enough and are on the offensive.

Unfortunately I think that the next thing we will see will be BTRs and BMPs rolling in. :dead:

EDIT: Scrap that, the BTRs are already there:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bg5zf-tIcAAqARv.jpg

Live twitter updates - https://twitter.com/BBCWorld/lists/bbc-kiev-feb-2014

Skybird

02-20-14, 06:58 AM

I say let Ukraine split in two !

The Eastern industrialized two-thirds of the country are in the hands of Russian-speaking people, plus Crimea that is Russian (now, while it was once Tatar, Ukrainian in no way) would constitute a Russian-speaking state joining the Russian common market.
And Ukrainian nationalists would stay in the western poor rural part of the country, around Lvov, joining the EU (and NATO of course) that is going to indebt it heavily, forcing it to dismiss civil servants and privatize everything, and to sell everything to the big capital, just like in Greece.
I proposed that split earlier, by linking an article arguing for that. But it leaves the Europeans, as you correctly point out, with just another hungry mouth demanding to get fed.

I also wonder why Russia should let go the Western half for nothing, if the Western half could be claimed for free for a Russian Ukraine.

The joke of yesterday was a German SPD clown from the EU parliament, babbling that now would be the right time to go to ol' buddy Putin and start talking with him about how the Ukraine could be made to turn towards the EU. That Putin has completely opposing interests seems to have escaped this brilliant mind. - And such is our political intellgenzia that we are demanded to feed with our hands' work!

Skybird

02-20-14, 07:01 AM

Doctors say they have seen so many bodies killed from distances with just one shot that now there is a strong suspicion that snipers have opened the hunt for opposition people, possibly in the fashion snipers in WWII took out officers and command staff.

I must say that the EU has to face its share of responsibility for this escalation. Its megalomania once again made it to boast with empty words since autumn, hoping that a big mouth and shallow phrases would be enough to bring the Ukraine into the EU, and ignoring that the clan they are up against is not shy to let deeds do the talking. Reality-denying lip-heroes.

Oberon

02-20-14, 08:57 AM

Ruptly news seems to have the right idea, no-one will dare shoot at these girls:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bg6qiHyCYAErl_8.jpg

Oberon

02-20-14, 09:32 AM

And so the schism has begun:

Ivano-Frankivsk regional council in western Ukraine passes a vote of no-confidence in President Yanukovych designating him an "illegitimate head of state", the UNIAN news agency reports.

And the police have been given permission to use firearms:

More on Acting Interior Minister Zakharchenko's decision to allow police to use firearms. "I signed an order and police have been given combat weapons, which will be used in accordance with the law," he says in a statement published on the ministry website, Reuters reports.

Current flashpoint areas, either captured by protesters or being contested:

http://rt.com/files/news/22/90/30/00/map-1.jpg

Dread Knot

02-20-14, 09:37 AM

Ruptly news seems to have the right idea, no-one will dare shoot at these girls:

Whatever they're shooting with doesn't seem to mind this variety of bulletproof vest. One protester died wearing this one today. If the person behind the trigger is female, I don't know if gender will protect you either.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bg6KrAzIgAAQcOc.jpg:large

Dread Knot

02-20-14, 09:39 AM

About half the Ukrainian Olympic Team has quit Sochi and headed for home. Make me wonder if the real hammer will fall after the Olympics.

Skybird

02-20-14, 10:31 AM

What has boiled over these days is not just an internal Ukrainian conflict.

What has broken out here is a conflict over the question who will dominate Europe in the future - Russia or the EU.

With the US having entered a phase of both reshifting from Europe to SE Asia and thus loosing interest in Europe and the ME, while at the same time becoming increasingly isolationistic for a whole variety of practical and mental reasons, and on the other side of the pond the EU and Russia being unable to truly reign over the other, what we maybe see these days will be labelled in historic books as the beginning of a new ice age and cold war between Russia and Europe.

The EU looks like monkeys riding on donkeys now. I like that sight.

02-20-14, 10:43 AM

The EU looks like monkeys riding on donkeys now. I like that sight.

I just wonder how would you like EU deal with the issue?

Oberon

02-20-14, 12:03 PM

The thing is, the EU and NATO has, over the past twenty years, encroached ever closer on Russias sphere of power. It's a bit like China buying out South America, Russia has little choice but to perceive this as an attempt to push western influence on what has been traditionally Russian territory for the past century.
So really the main tugs of war are going to be, and indeed have been, over the former Pact states, in particular those on the border with Russia, Georgia, Belarus, Ukraine, and possibly Latvia and Estonia (although I think that Russia isn't too bothered about letting them slip).
I don't think that it is so much a case of who is going to control Europe, but more a case of who is going to control Eastern Europe, and that's a 'battle' that started in 1989, and this is just another part of it.
Personally though, I don't see the EU has any cards to play in this situation, Russia could roll a legion of T-72s into Kiev in ten hours flat, and there's nothing that NATO or the EU could do to stop him...all the EU has is soft power, and since a Ukrainian civil war would screw most nations around the Ukraine over (the Polish economy is already wobbling because of the Ukrainian chaos) neither side wants it to go that far, and so really, the only thing the EU can do is bleat while Putin conducts his business.
It's a Realpolitik thing, like David Cameron with Syria, there's nothing that you can do, but you have to pretend that you're making the effort otherwise certain pressure groups will be up in arms that "you're not defending democracy (TM)" and so on and so forth.

Catfish

02-20-14, 12:05 PM

Oberon

02-20-14, 12:16 PM

Whatever the EU does, it will be criticised, ploughed under and stomped into the ground by Skybird.

But, as we found out after this american 'F.. the EU' statement, the US is also deeply involved in it, and they do not want the EU to succeed.
I just wonder what Russia will say if the US influence on the Ukraine becomes a bit more hardware-like. :-?

They will probably invest in their own hardware into the Ukraine, most likely T-80 shaped.

It's a three way power sphere battle, with each side wanting to be the one that takes the political prestige from 'solving' the crisis. However since all three sides are pulling in different directions, nothing has been done and the situation has gotten out of control.

EDIT: Unconfirmed reports indicate that top officials are fleeing Kiev:

Unconfirmed reports that some of the top officials and their families have been leaving Kiev. Journalist Hanna Babynets from independent Hromadske TV reported this from Kiev's Zhulyany Airport: "Three planes have taken off in the past five minutes. It's very likely that they are carrying cash: suitcases have been unloaded under guard from armoured vans usually used to transport cash... scheduled flights have been suspended, the airport administration says."

TarJak

02-20-14, 03:53 PM

The EU looks like monkeys riding on donkeys now. I like that sight.

I just wonder how would you like EU deal with the issue?

I wonder how Skybird would feel when the Russians decide it's time to get rid of the monkeys and he's under the donkey. :hmmm:

With the Ukrainian police regrouping I reckon we'll see another move made on the protests overnight.

Jimbuna

02-20-14, 04:07 PM

Sanctions are being put in place as a matter of urgency...

European Union foreign ministers have agreed to impose sanctions on Ukrainian officials "responsible for violence and excessive force".

In a statement, they said targeted sanctions including asset freezes and visa bans would be introduced "as a matter of urgency".

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26280710

Oberon

02-20-14, 04:21 PM

I wonder how Skybird would feel when the Russians decide it's time to get rid of the monkeys and he's under the donkey. :hmmm:

I dunno, I mean, think about it...Homosexuality is discouraged, Muslim extremists shot on sight, laws depend on either who you know or how much you have, and in many places government control is either non-existed or exported to the local mafia.

I think he'd love it. :yep:

TarJak

02-20-14, 04:24 PM

You may well be right. A good dose of the old school DDR with a splash of capitalism to add extra spice. Might just work for him.

I for one welcome Skybird's new Russian overlords.

Mind you it's easy for me to say from an armchair that's not between a rock and a hard place.

Skybird

02-20-14, 04:56 PM

I just wonder how would you like EU deal with the issue?
I have no preferences regarding the EU doing this or that. Make the EU a thing that does not exist, and I'd be a bit happier in this life.

Yanukovich's gang may play the card of physical violence, but his attitude towards power and owning his people is not different from that of our political feudal masters in the West. It'S just that the violence to control the minds and thoughts, motivations and doings of people in the west are controlled more subtle than with bullets and rubber sticks. To me, they both are just the same wicked breed with the same feudal self-conception, all of them.

What have you expected to hear from me? That I suddenly take back all my complex and comprehensive criticism and hostility towards our political regimes, just because an Eastern bully starts to shoot at people? In the end, the Ukrainian fight is the Ukrainians' fight, not ours. We should learn to realise the problems that we have ourselves - and that are constantly accumulating, until they will overwhelm us one not too distant day.

Skybird

02-20-14, 04:56 PM

I dunno, I mean, think about it...Homosexuality is discouraged, Muslim extremists shot on sight, laws depend on either who you know or how much you have, and in many places government control is either non-existed or exported to the local mafia.

I think he'd love it. :yep:

Bad dope this evening? You have not understood any significant part of what I tried to explain to you on several occasions, if this is all that you can summarise it as. The waste of time was at my cost, then.

Onkel Neal

02-20-14, 05:30 PM

Aww, why is this happening? Come on, Russia, you really think Ukraine being closely associated with Europe is so bad? It's great. Peace, prosperity, stability. Why not join the party, it wouldn't kill you. I cannot understand how nations have so much trouble building relationships that are in their best interests. It's not like the West is "encircling" a communist country, isn't Russia open to trade, travel, free speech, political elections (except for Putin)? What's their problem? Most of the Russians want to be American or European anyway. Hell, give a Russian a ticket to the US and get out of his way, he'll run you over.

Oberon

02-20-14, 05:33 PM

Bad dope this evening? You have not understood any significant part of what I tried to explain to you on several occasions, if this is all that you can summarise it as. The waste of time was at my cost, then.

The dope is never bad, the humour, perhaps so.

Aww, why is this happening? Come on, Russia, you really think Ukraine being closely associated with Europe is so bad? It's great. Peace, prosperity, stability. Why not join the party, it wouldn't kill you. I cannot understand how nations have so much trouble building relationships that are in their best interests. It's not like the West is "encircling" a communist country, isn't Russia open to trade, travel, free speech, political elections (except for Putin)? What's their problem? Most of the Russians want to be American or European anyway. Hell, give a Russian a ticket to the US and get out of his way, he'll run you over.

Not that you'd accept them, immigration concerns and that. :03:

Onkel Neal

02-20-14, 05:39 PM

Not that you'd accept them, immigration concerns and that. :03:

Well, of course:haha:

Oberon

02-20-14, 05:40 PM

Well, of course:haha:

But, I guess they would like to see Montana. :yep:

mapuc

02-20-14, 05:41 PM

When Reading Neal's post made me remember a reporter on Danish TV saying that Russia will not allow Ukrania become close to EU.

This have made me wonder what Russia is going to do after the Olympic is over.

Maybe nothing or?

Markus

TarJak

02-20-14, 05:58 PM

But, I guess they would like to see Montana. :yep: There's YouTube for that although she goes by the name of Miley Cyrus now. :know

TarJak

02-20-14, 06:02 PM

The dope is never bad, the humour, perhaps so.
There's your problem... Humour.... Germans...

Skybird

02-20-14, 06:10 PM

The humour is hard to see if it sounds exactly like former attacks by others and their intended deformations of what I said. Your first two points, Oberon, I realised to be exaggerations, but handing the law to the Mafia at the latest was where humour failed me. I mean most people going to elections even vote for mafia-like organised crime with a monopole to justify itself. That's where not just humour but hope also fails me.

But okay, I now got your point, Oberon. No hard feelings.

mapuc

02-20-14, 06:19 PM

Oberon

02-20-14, 07:30 PM

Some good before and after shots from Kiev:

http://www.telegraaf.nl/buitenland/22319785/__Verwoesting_van_Kiev_in_beeld__.html

u crank

02-20-14, 07:44 PM

Some good before and after shots from Kiev:

Humans are a messy, no doubt about it.

TarJak

02-20-14, 10:25 PM

European Union now says that it has settled on sanctions that target those Ukrainian officials that they hold response for this violence.

Can't see them having any real effect on the ground though.

nikimcbee

02-20-14, 11:46 PM

Everybody raise your hand, who wants to meddle in this conflict? Who's going to call Putin's bluff? Anybody?
I'm not to EU savvy, do they have a military? Would they stick up for them (Western Ukraine)? Maybe they could join/re-join Poland? 1618 boarders:hmmm::dead:

nikimcbee

02-21-14, 12:01 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hjCh2kiWHoQ&feature=youtube_gdata_player
:hmmm:
Rioter footage:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j0kTv_8lwiQ&feature=youtube_gdata_player
:dead:

TarJak

02-21-14, 03:29 AM

02-21-14, 05:02 AM

What have you expected to hear from me? That I suddenly take back all my complex and comprehensive criticism and hostility towards our political regimes, just because an Eastern bully starts to shoot at people? In the end, the Ukrainian fight is the Ukrainians' fight, not ours. We should learn to realise the problems that we have ourselves - and that are constantly accumulating, until they will overwhelm us one not too distant day.

I have no problem with your criticism but rather with your visions.:)
After all we all do our share of ranting about politicians.

As for the ukraine if this does not escalate further EU will do what is does best in those situations... nothing.
Not surprised if EU let Putin do his best just to avoid some ongoing mess under their noses , might be too exposing.
Putin does his job then two month pass by and everybody gets with their lives.
Even some diplomatc compromise might be reached.:D
No need for you to worry about.

Just in: Yanukovych claims he's reached a deal with the opposition to end the crisis. I wonder if Vladimir was on the phone overnight? :hmmm:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-02-2...crisis/5276502 (http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-02-21/ukraine-leader-opposition-agree-deal-to-resolve-crisis/5276502) Oh well....:haha:

Jimbuna

02-21-14, 05:22 AM

Just in: Yanukovych claims he's reached a deal with the opposition to end the crisis. I wonder if Vladimir was on the phone overnight? :hmmm:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-02-21/ukraine-leader-opposition-agree-deal-to-resolve-crisis/5276502

Once the deal is signed and the small print has been read it shouldn't be too difficult to see if Putins fingerprints are there.

Alex

02-21-14, 05:32 AM

I'm afraid of what's going to happen next week after the Olympics is over.

I'm afraid, that if a agreement haven't been made, the Ukrainian government with the support from Russia is going to engage the military against the civilians.

I hope I'm wrong.

Markus
The ukrainian government should support and provide defensive and offensive weapons to Ukrainian citizen who wish to take on those who have that destabilizing role in the country actually, so that the power will be able to deploy the Ukrainian military legitimately declaring a state of high alert in order to avoid civil war.

No doubt the ukrainian power will be thinking about the syrian example in order to avoid falling into the Libyan situation.

TarJak

02-21-14, 05:56 AM

No doubt. The EU ministers on the ground are staying quiet so far and given Putin's backing of Yanukovych, its hard to see him not having asked for his pound of flesh.

Oberon

02-21-14, 06:52 AM

Myeah, I don't see this agreement holding that long...if it had been proposed last week then perhaps...but the radicalists are out for blood now, and it's been the radicalists that have been leading the charge over the past 48 hours. I don't think they will accept anything other than Yanukovich's immediate resignation and trial. :hmmm:

Dan D

02-21-14, 06:53 AM

To those who criticise the EU here, I would like to point out that a common EU foreign policy is not existent.

That is because the EU member states can't agree on a common foreign policy. So each country does it own. Take France's intervention in Mali as example, or France and the UK with regard to Syria.

The fact that Catherine Ashton became the first „EU foreign minister“ is very telling. Who the **** is she? Even in the UK many people had never heard of her before.

There is no political will to have a common EU foreign policy, the single member states want to keep the influence of the EU on foreign policy small.

Henry Kissinger once said: „Europe? Give me a name and a phone number“. That is meant when the US side says „**** the EU“. The US foreign minister still has to call all his colleagues in Europe, if he wants to discuss something.

The EU does not take place on the field of international diplomacy. The EU is more about the common market idea.

Skybird

02-21-14, 07:14 AM

So much for the theory. In reality, there is almost no area where the EU does not try to claim authority for final decision making, maybe with the exception of defence and health - and even here they are trying hard to push themselves in. The EU is not the EEC anymore, and it aims at much more thna just a shared economic market. Under the label of "common market", it tries to sell total unification, and everything.

Paper magic. They are masters of that. All politicians are. In Germany, after reunification we should have had a referendum and a new constztituion replacing the basic law, it was demanded by the Basic Law. We are still waiting. The EU constitution was rjected by the EU's own rules. They shuffled the content, left the content unchanged nevertheless, and decided it against the people behind locked doors. The history of the mEuro is a flawless chain of broken promises, violated laws, betrayed treaties and lies and manipulations. But politicians and their clever word magicans always had clever excuses to defend why they broke the rules all the time, when it was opportune for them.

Lesson from it: laws, treaties and promises mean nothing anymore. The art lies in finding out how to get away with something.

The label "common market" is just a deception that should minimize what they really are after: a European centrally governed superstate with an economy planned and controlled in the EU headquarter: planned economy. A Europe-wide USSR, so to speak. The parallels in power structures and power mechanisms inside the EU now already have intimidating parallels to that in the old USSR. The controlling head body of the ECB can only be compared with then Italian Mafia, however - just that they have the bonus to owe accountability to nobody, and enjoy total immunity from legal prosecution. Even the full list of names on the board is a secret, and what it decides and when it meets is a secret, too. Mafiosi at least could be identified, hunted, and brought to jail.

Oberon

02-21-14, 05:24 PM

Trouble could still be brewing:

Protesters booed opposition leader Vitaly Klitschko at Maidan Square on Friday as he attempted to speak during a memorial service for a protester killed during recent clashes.
Klitschko apologized to protesters for shaking Yanukovich’s hand. “Believe me - I got no pleasure out of it. If I offended anyone, I apologize for that, but I did it so Ukraine could win. I'm doing everything with sincerity, I'm doing everything in my power to prevent bloodshed, I'm doing everything to make this gang leave,” Unian quoted him as saying.

Leader of far-right group Right Sector, Dmitri Yarosh, told the protesters at Maidan Square that the deal reached between the president and the opposition is not acceptable, Euromaidan PR tweeted. Yarosh said that his group will not be putting down their arms until President Viktor Yanukovich resigns. “The Right Sector will not lay down its arms. The Right Sector will not remove the blockade of one of the government buildings until our most important requirement is fulfilled – the resignation of Yanukovich,” Unian quoted him as saying.

Radicals set ultimatum: will storm if president Yanukovich doesn't step down before 10am on Saturday

Source - http://rt.com/news/kiev-clashes-rioters-police-571/

Skybird

02-21-14, 05:43 PM

No word on Putin. I just cannot imagine that he would so easily swallow defeat in his most important and dearest strategic project. While scepticism over the "deal" signed is in need, the time tables set up there, with elections by the end of the year, leave a huge door open for "workaround scenarios" for Yanukovich and Putin. Seeing how bitterly Russia sticks to the Syrian regime, optimism sees little basis today - even more so with Klitschko and Co representing only a part of the opposition - and the other parts, not forgetting nor forgiving the bloodshed of recent days, are less "pragmatic" regarding letting Yanukovich stay in office for the time being.

And today I read a long analysis of the Ukrainian finances (or better: the lack of finances). I can only say: Russia, take the Ukraine yourself if you want it so desperately, and save us Germans and Dutch and Fins and Austrians needing to bail out a bigger hungry mouth than Greece and Cyprus and the others together. From the EU's and ECB's perspective, the Ukraine should be seen not just a mess - it is a nightmare. But of course, once again party and idealism will kill any sense of realism, I fear. The Ukraine joining the EU - I already know whose money will dissappear by the many billions in that black hole.

If there would be such a fight in Germany, and people dera to me would have gotten killed by thje government and I see dozens if not hundreds of civilians killed - would I accept agreements that leave the government the chance to manouver out of the corner, and getting away with the massacre? No. And Yanukovich - let's face it, like Assad, he now is a case for an international tribunal. And that is the guy the EU negotiates with now - in - once again - betrayal of its own often claimed superior ideals.

Sometimes opportunistic pragmatism just is not the correct way to go. It sometimes is and must be and should be about more than just that. Sometimes, pragmatism just is not good enough.

Anyway, for us Europeans, it all is a no win-no win situation. Either we leave domination and victory to Russia, or we pick up a giant bill not really helping our own financial and political troubles. Catch-22.

TarJak

02-22-14, 05:44 AM

http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2014-02-22/ukraine-president-viktor-yanukovych-leaves-kiev-reports/5277588

Reports that Yanukovych has left Kiev as opposition occupies his office.

Jimbuna

02-22-14, 06:22 AM

He'll be on his way to some safe haven in Russia...the house of cards has almost totally collapsed.

Oberon

02-22-14, 06:40 AM

He's not gone to Russia (I doubt they'd take him just yet, not until he's at least tried to crack down on the protesters) but he's fled to the relatively safe east of the country.

Now things are going to get tricky, because with Yanukovich out of Kiev, the military forces in the city might well decide that they know which way the wind is blowing (especially since half of the Ukrainian government has jumped ship) and switch sides...and then we start tiptoeing into a civil war.

Dread Knot

02-22-14, 09:06 AM

Sounds like the jailed opposition leader Yulia Tymoshenko has been voted to be freed.

http://mystrawhat.com/newmedia12/images/yulia-tymoshenko-collier.jpg

Skybird

02-22-14, 09:39 AM

Police in Kiev has turned sides. Yanukovich is in Charkow, a stronghold of his and the pro-Russian party in the Ukraine. This could mean he prepares to flee to Russia - or that he prepares to dig himself in. In recent reports it is said he speaks of a "coup" and that there will be a TV speech by him later today. Both could mean anything: that he will announce to leave office, or prepares to set up a fight. In Charkow, pro-Russian political forces have gathered and hold a conference that has been scheduled since loger time.

What do the Americans say? It ain't over 'til the fat lady sings.

I still cannot imagine that Putin lets go so easily, the Ukraine is so much more important for Russia than Syria - and look how deeply they have dug themselves in there! He could put his darling project of re-establishing a follow-up to the former USSR's sphere of influence ad acta, if he gives up the Ukraine.

Also, all the financial support the Russians are giving, would be stopped if they declare the Ukraine a lost case. Guess who pays them bills then - us. And we talk about money in the high billions immediately, and more in the medium and long run (fiscal collapse is imminent in the Ukraine).

Thank God there are money printers and a de facto established European transfer union. Thank God that the devaluation of money and de facto expropriation of private wealth that they bring, is being ignored by the ordinary people.

The young people in our own countries? Cry for them. Any snowball system sooner or later must come to an end - and the young ones are the last players who stood at the end of the line. Guess how it will end for them.

Dread Knot

02-22-14, 09:52 AM

What do the Americans say? It ain't over 'til the fat lady sings.

Only because we can't pronounce Gotterdammerung. :D

Skybird

02-22-14, 09:56 AM

And vice versa, "Börn to be wild" would not be any better. :O:

Nor would "Love is like a ring of börning fire." :88)

Moonlight

02-22-14, 09:57 AM

Sounds like the jailed opposition leader Yulia Tymoshenko has been voted to be freed.

http://mystrawhat.com/newmedia12/images/yulia-tymoshenko-collier.jpg
She reminds me of princess leia, I hope the force is still with her. :sunny:

Oberon

02-22-14, 10:07 AM

No real surprise that she's going to be released, she was the figure head for the opposition, Klitschko is going to find himself somewhat sidelined in the coming weeks I think.
Berkut and the police have seen which way the wind is blowing and have switched sides on Kiev, but the big question is what happens next?

Will Yanukovich flee out of the Ukraine? Or will he marshall his forces and set the stage for a Ukrainian civil war.

It is looking sadly increasingly like the latter, which opens the opportunity and possibility of Russian intervention...and possibly EU/US intervention on the other side.

Skybird

02-22-14, 10:23 AM

Oberon

02-22-14, 10:28 AM

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26306737

:hmmm:

Didn't I see this in a Red Alert game? :hmmm:

Skybird

02-22-14, 10:28 AM

She reminds me of princess leia, I hope the force is still with her. :sunny:
She is called "gas princess" and "ice princess" not for no reason. Remember, there are no innocent leaders in Russian politics - especially when they made such a huge fortune like she did. She has been build up as an innocent victim here in the West, because one thought the enemy of my enemy (Yanukovich) automatically is my noble, trustworthy, moral friend, but even if she became victim of a conspiracy - she is anything but "innocent". At the height of her ruling already, her close contacts to organsied crime were whispered behind raised hands. Rumours even mentioned murder. And that was not just Yanukovich propaganda outlets.

I care as little for her as I care for Yanukovich.

Catfish

02-22-14, 10:38 AM

I did not know there even was a Lenin statue to topple left, standing around somewhere.
Somehow funny to see that 'conservatives' (usually right-wing) can be communists.

But when it comes to gaining and maintaining power, the same mechanisms apply, and any politics (like religion) is just the vehicle to "legally" oppress the own population.

Skybird

02-22-14, 10:45 AM

The Southern and Eastern provinces have joined the Yanukovich camp.

Reconciliation, and forming a "government of unity", looks different.

Jimbuna

02-22-14, 12:59 PM

Possible prelude to a partition of the country? :hmmm:

Skybird

02-22-14, 01:13 PM

That probably depends on whether Yanukovich has the support of the clear majority of ordinary people in the South-East, or not.

I think his chances are 40:60, worstening. His era is over. Considering how quickly he suddenly collapsed, the anger in the Kremlin must be such that they do not feel tempted to "reward" him any further by helping him.

Putin must be boiling, I'm certain.

But as I said earlier, I feel no triumph for Europe as well. The financial cost for especially the netto paying nations, will be tremendous, and I do not welcome that one bit. For the Ukrainian people it might become a win (or not, we need to see). But for the EU, it only is costs , costs and then more costs.

Not even mentioning the deep corruption, and the criminal oligarchs, the organised crime.

No, triumph for Europe looks different. We win nothing with the Ukraine.

And Russia - will take revenge. In Syria. Over Russian intentions to support Iranian nuclear programs. And in other areas of international meaning where their compliance or at least silent toleration would be needed.

mapuc

02-22-14, 01:26 PM

I can't say what the next step is going to be, I only know that Putin doesn't allow Ukrainian turns toward EU and Europe.

If I should make a guess.

Russia goes all in, in their support to the Eastern Ukraine and the former President.

What's going to happen, if that would be the case- I dare not to guess.

Markus

Skybird

02-22-14, 01:45 PM

I think Putin would have gone quite far as long as Yanukovich stayed in command in Kiev. Probably short of sending Russian troops into the Ukraine, however, meant to fight the opposition.

But with Yanukovich loosing grip and fleeing Kiev, I think Putin realised that this man was no longer a card to bet his money on.

He will probably hope that Tymochenkop becomes the new leader, because although they do not love each other, she is a known variable, whereas all other opposition leaders probably are not.

But it seems that the opposition's enthusiams over Tymochenko is somewhat tuned down, too. She has been the leader of the country - and she rose quite some anger and opposition to her back then, she was controversial a figure, absolutely.

mapuc

02-22-14, 02:25 PM

I always thought that Yanukovich was Kreml's marionette

I don't think Russia is going to send troops, not yet though, maybe much later, when their leader of chose are going to lose the battle for Ukraine

Markus

Hungry-Bear

02-22-14, 02:36 PM

Ukraine mainly waiting rude awakening in relation to EU - after the signing of the association agreement still no free travel, no work, no sale, no money for Ukrainians. This only created an economic wall from Russia and flood the Ukrainian market with goods from EU, which destroy local industry and employment.

TarJak

02-22-14, 02:36 PM

Yanukovych has denounced the "couo" in a TV appearance. Claims that he was at his residence outside Kiev appear to be false as journalists have been able to freely enter the property and see for themselves that he's not there.

Sounds like he's made a face saving attempt for his supporters. Hard to say which way Putin will play his hand but I doubt he can jump in without causing much more violent repercussions.

Jimbuna

02-22-14, 02:41 PM

Regardless of what Putin does or doesn't do...the EU certainly won't be putting any boots on the ground because that is precisely the excuse Putin needs to do similar.

Hungry-Bear

02-22-14, 02:41 PM

Russia does not need to send troops (if western Ukraine not attack to the eastern Ukraine), Putin comfortable agree with EU leaders on the division of "the spoils".

Oberon

02-22-14, 03:24 PM

Russia does not need to send troops (if western Ukraine not attack to the eastern Ukraine), Putin comfortable agree with EU leaders on the division of "the spoils".

:yep:

The current question though is how the Ukraine is going to handle having two leaders, and will either side attack the other. :hmmm:

Dread Knot

02-22-14, 03:30 PM

Yeah, Ukraine is looking like it will definitely split. Yanukovych is gaining ground in the pro-Russian east and south. They're forming a new legislature and everything.

This is probably the best fate for Ukraine. Whether it will be allowed to happen by both parties is another matter.

mapuc

02-22-14, 03:43 PM

This is from a danish article I have used Google translate

From the danish newspaper Ræson= the Reasoning

Are Russia planning to intervene?

Events in Ukraine is developing fast. President Yanukovych have appeared, former Prime Julija Tymoshenko has been released and the opposition and protesters have taken control of Kiev. Joy spreads, but it is too naive to think that Yanukovych and the Russians have abandoned Ukraine

Up to 100 people lost their lives this week in fighting between the Ukrainian president's police forces and demonstrators in Kiev's Independence Square. Now, a few days later, it seems that President Viktor Yanukovych is sidelined. His opponent, former Prime Minister Julija Tymoshenko has been released, and the demonstrators and the opposition has taken control de of Kiev. It was unthinkable just a few days ago, but it's not too early to let the joy euphoria spread in Kiev's streets? Has President Viktor Yanukovych and Russians thrown in the towel and let the democratic forces come to Ukraine? Hardly

Protesters and the opposition have during the day taken all government buildings and Viktor Yanukovich's private residence. There have been reports that President Yanukovych had left the country, but the news was, however, far from being true. Unfortunately

Saturday afternoon he appeared on a television station in eastern Ukraine and announced that he does not intend to resign as the country's president. He described the situation in the country as a coup , and his aggressive appearance suggests that the battle for Ukraine is far from won, and the Ukrainians during the coming months expect an offensive by Yanukovych's side . The president's speech, especially the description of the situation in Ukraine as a coup , should be taken with great seriousness, as they may be an attempt to prepare a Russian invasion of the country. Russians' reaction to recent events in Ukraine has remained relatively sparse, but the Russians have condemned the events in the country. This may indicate that the possibility of a Russian invasion nearly as unrealistic as it first sounds. The timing of the Olympic Games in Sochi ends tomorrow and the Russian population of Crimea Thursday has asked for Russian help is absolutely perfect for a " brotherly help oppressed Russian population " . Recent events in Ukraine and the protesters' initial victory is in fact certainly not something the Russians like. Demonstrators The success can quickly become a threat to both Putin's empire and against other autocratic society plans of the Russian interest, such as Belarus , Azerbaijan, Armenia and Central Asia . Demonstrators The victory can inspire the democratic forces in these countries to rebel and unleash a wave of revolutions in these countries. Therefore, it would certainly sooner or later get a response from the Kremlin. A response whose purpose will be to put a spanner in the Ukrainian wheels.

CURRENT siutation in Kiev and throughout Ukraine must in any case be considered highly vulnerable , and it is important that the new rulers quickly gain control of the country and the military, and especially ensures the eastern and southern Ukraine, where a Russian invasion can be considered. It is also important that the new authorities to handle the various factions that just a few days ago have stood on opposite sides of the barricades and have killed each other . This is true despite the fact that we are currently questioning the Ukrainian Parliament 's legitimacy and powers , as all parliamentary decisions require , according to the Ukrainian Constitution the president's signature. Preliminary reports from Kiev also suggests that among the demonstrators continue to radical groups , who are not satisfied with the opposition agreement with the President. These represent a potential danger that the unrest could flare up again . It is therefore important that the demonstrators and the new Ukrainian politicians can quickly eliminate these groupings
End of text

Markus

kranz

02-22-14, 04:55 PM

Russia does not need to send troops (if western Ukraine not attack to the eastern Ukraine), Putin comfortable agree with EU leaders on the division of "the spoils".
Right. They dont have to send troops bcox they already have. Sharpshooters supporting Berkut spoke russian, not ukrainian.

Phyrrus

02-23-14, 05:09 AM

Catfish

02-23-14, 05:17 AM

Well they just said they would fight against the Russians, if they came ..
Don't think they will come, though.

Jimbuna

02-23-14, 05:46 AM

He (Yanukovych) certainly lived well.

Echoing the opposition's control of the government district in Kiev, crowds have roamed freely around the grounds of Mr Yanukovych's country house, just outside the capital.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26303913

TarJak

02-23-14, 05:47 AM

I think the thread that's already discussing this is enough. http://subsim.com/radioroom/showthread.php?t=209742

Betonov

02-23-14, 05:51 AM

A 140 hectares :huh:

I have 5 hectares and don't know what to do with it :doh:

Admire the Ukranians how they responded. Instead of pillaging and burning the residence they made a park out of it :yep:

Jimbuna

02-23-14, 06:07 AM

@Phyrrus

I have merged the threads because the topics are identical, unfortunately a few posts were made whilst I was carrying out the task.

Your contributions are most welcome.

Skybird

02-23-14, 07:30 AM

I'm starting this tread because there are - in my opinion - great things happening in Ukraine. Two days ago Ukrainian goverment asked Putin officially for a military intervention. This may be getting serious.
I've heard many opinions here and there. I consider this Subsim community having a greater average IQ than other forums, so I'd really love you to share your thoughs about events in Ukraina. What do you subsimmers think, is there somethig behind it or is it only what we see? Who do you think is involved? Will it have greater impact on economy and markets and politics, as Iraq or Egypt had, or will go unnoticed? Will they succeed? Will Putin intervene with army? Why does this happen now, why not 20 yrs ago? Are we going to see russian submarines at Constanta (Black sea) or in the mediterranean?

These things are happening at our borders (by ours I mean Romania, home of SH series makers in Bucharest), not in a distand land like Iraq, not Vietnam. It's Ukraine. Euro, lei and forint exchange rates have already fallen as direct consequence of the revolulution. Or wait, is it a revolution?

So what do you think?It boilds down to this: the people living in the EU's netto paying countries will have to pay an awful lot of money for the Ukraine, which will backfire against their own future sooner or later. The financial needs can only be covered by forcing people to spend more into a snowball system, and by milking them even more thoroughly. More taxes, more debt-raising. By coincidence, the president of the German tax payer association gets quoted today with having demanded to tremendously beef up the government's personnel in the tax offices, and that especially rich tax payers should be put on a much shorter line. More control! More transparency of the citizens! More money to the state! It'S not as if German ordinary people do not already get ripped off of more than half of their income over taxes and mandatory payments alone. That is insane. And a good argument why we really do not need another open bleeding wound in the EU's flank.

Ukrainians have any right there is to decide on their wanted way of life - but they have to afford it, they have no right whatsoever to demand that others have to pay for what they want. Like the Scots cannot demand that all others have to pay their bills in case they vote for independence, the Ukrainians must find similar ways. I am utmost sceptical about the Ukraine, therefore.

A profound economic truth I learned to base on, is that you cannot build real wealth that lasts by picking up credit. You only start a new snowball system there, and since that constantly runs while hanging on a drip and looses functionality soon if you switch off that drip, it is not a functional system that could last, it always will end in the sort of crisis we see in the west since years now. We currently learn that the hard way in the West - and still most people try to deny this simple insight. Many people'S economic policy starts and ends with calling for more credit, and devaluing money with all the nasty implications that has, and for more planned economy and more regulation by the state, as if the state were not the worst but the most competent of all managers there are. In the end it compares all to a dream about Superman saving the world - and for free, of course.

All this will repeat itself in the Ukraine, probably. And worse: in the Ukraine you have a high amount of corruption, and strong industrial oligarchs who at least balance on the thin line between legal business and organised crime. Starting to pump money into this mixture - well, you can imagine the end of the story.

Too bad that dreams and desires alone cannot already pay for real world bills.

Regarding Putin, I do not take it as granted that he already has spoken his last word over the Ukraine. Olympics end today, and the Rubel has lost 17% in the imminent past and still is in free fall, the party of the games will now stop to overshine the difficult Russian realities. Whether that will motivate him for a tougher and more confrontational course, or will set limits to his ambitions to establish a custom union and claiming the Ukraine as a puffer to the West, remains to be seen.

Oberon

02-23-14, 08:18 AM

It is, like all revolutions, born of hopes but driven by greed and violence.
What has replaced Yanukovich is by no means an improvement for the people of the Ukraine, already sweeping power has been self-awarded to the new western Ukrainian government. It's no real surprise, if anything it is following the standard pattern of most revolutions, which is why I always inwardly cringe when I hear people in western democracies calling for a revolution...they rarely end with the desired result.

Yanukovich has already allegedly tried to flee to Russia once but was denied by the border guards, this does not sound like a man who is confident that he has a consolidated powerbase in the east of the country. So, in my view at least, the chance of a civil war has dipped ever so slightly, if Yanukovich is ready to flee to Russia rather than stay and act as a figurehead of a resistance to the changes in Kiev.

Really though, at the end of the day, everyone is going to lose in this.
The people of the Ukraine are going to lose because rather than be subserviant to Russia, they will be bound to be subservient to the EU, IMF and Germany who will bail them out in a year or two when the Ukrainian economy collapses (if not sooner).
Russia is going to lose because the EU/NATO will edge that much closer to Russia, it will be a damaging blow to Russian prestige in the region.
The EU is going to lose because it's going to have another massive drain on an already heavily taxed system.

In fact, the only two people that are going to benefit from this are the US who will have another semi-ally on Russias doorstep, and the Ukrainian Fascists who have gained a great deal of sway in the Ukraine as they have been the driving militant force behind the revolution.

The biggest question really is what is going to happen now? The only real answer to that lies in the east of the Ukraine, where Yanukovich and his allies have certainly been talking the talk...but will they be willing to walk the walk? Will Putin send more forces to aid them? Will they launch an assault on the west? Or will the Ukraine semi-peacefully split itself down the middle? (unlikely in my opinion, unless some heavy outside mediation creates it). Only time will tell, so all I can suggest is to keep following the news, the BBC seems to be tailing off its live updates for the moment, so I'm following RussiaToday...not exactly an unbiased source, but following both RT and the BBC usually balances each other out in a pro and anti-Yanukovich kind of way.

Kiev:
http://rt.com/news/kiev-clashes-rioters-police-571/

Kharkov:
http://rt.com/news/eastern-ukraine-kharkov-gathering-261/

Phyrrus

02-23-14, 01:55 PM

@Phyrrus

I have merged the threads because the topics are identical, unfortunately a few posts were made whilst I was carrying out the task.

Your contributions are most welcome.

You did well, thank you. It was curious for me that there is not such subject, that wouldnt look like Subsim :) but I think I just have to learn using the SEARCH engine better...

Oberon

02-23-14, 02:24 PM

The cracks continue to spread:

The Ukrainian port city of Sevastopol has voted to stop paying taxes to Kiev, as it is seeking independence.

Jimbuna

02-23-14, 03:42 PM

England should unite with them and we can withold our taxes :O:

mapuc

02-23-14, 04:23 PM

According to a Swedish Commentator it could very well end with a war between Ukraine and Russia.

( I take all these commentators with a ton of salt)

Markus

Betonov

02-23-14, 04:32 PM

the Russians will probably bribe the opposition leaders after the revolution and nothing will change.

Hungry-Bear

02-23-14, 06:30 PM

end with a war between Ukraine and Russia

Russia does not need war - simply close the oil, gas and money pipelines.

Oberon

02-23-14, 07:11 PM

end with a war between Ukraine and Russia

Russia does not need war - simply close the oil, gas and money pipelines.

This is true, and I suspect that this is a threat that Russia will use with whoever takes over from Yanukovich if they try to militarily drift towards NATO and the EU. However, there is still a risk that if a Ukrainian civil war does develop then Russia will intervene in either a direct or non-direct fashion (there are rumours and reports that they are already intervening in a non-direct fashion, likewise people suggesting the same of the EU and US).

It's a very liquid situation at the moment, certainly Yanukovich's power is dramatically on the wane, but it's whether he and his supporters will fade away or decide to fight that is the question, and furthermore, what will the fascists of the Ukraine do now? Will they push for more power? Or will the new government of the Ukraine turn on them?

Hungry-Bear

02-23-14, 07:51 PM

Oberon

02-23-14, 08:35 PM

Russia will have to intervene by force only when "Western Ukraine" attacks to the eastern Ukraine (in this case must to intervene). But in this case will be labeled as aggressors rebels with all the international consequences for them - which they know. If you want "freedom", then he must sacrifice the east+south.
Anyway, now they will have enough to worry about with national bankruptcy.

Indeed, that's going to be the biggest crisis once the dust settles from all this, and if West Ukraine cuts itself off from the East and South then it loses a) the naval base at Sevastapol, the existence of which keeps Russia supplying gas, and b) the coal fields of the east, a good economic resource.

Which leaves it with...what? Chernobyl? :dead:

Tango589

02-23-14, 08:53 PM

Which leaves it with...what? Chernobyl? :dead:

You can't beat a tourist hot-spot to keep raking in the hryvnias'.:hmmm:

Jimbuna

02-24-14, 04:31 AM

Ukraine has now issued an arrest warrant for Yanukovych on the grounds of 'Mass murder of peaceful citizens'.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26320004

Oberon

02-24-14, 07:27 AM

The new Ukraine authorities have now been recognized by the EU, the US and the UNO, said the acting president and acting PM, Aleksandr Turchinov, at the parliamentary meeting of the Ukrainian parliament (Verkhovna Rada).

The Ukrainian state treasury is empty and the country is nearly bankrupt, said Arseny Yatsenyuk, leader of the Batkivshchina (Fatherland) Party during the parliamentary session.
‘We have to ask financial help from the International Monetary Fund,” added Yatsenyuk, commenting that Ukraine has never seen a financial catastrophe on this scale in its history.

The UK is ready to provide support to Ukraine through schemes set up by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and EU, UK Finance Minister George Osborne said.
“A lot of this [support] will take the form of loans and the like, but there will be good investments in the economy of Ukraine," said Osborne.

http://www.quickmeme.com/img/64/64753b2e457911650edeceef9f619c9af4897d8f9122bbea35 795101eeba9566.jpg

Alex

02-24-14, 09:51 AM

Yes we all must fight the communists and the Russians !
They are all evil. :stare:
But capitalism must not be defeated.
I don't know why, but I predict the west won't support Ukrainian militants for much more time (http://pressall.wordpress.com/2014/02/22/ill-be-fighting-jews-and-russians-till-i-die-ukrainian-right-wing-militants-aiming-for-power/).

Poor Aleksandr Muzychko.

Skybird

02-24-14, 10:07 AM

First bill has been put on the table: 35 billion for the first credit tranche.

As we have learned from the state credit mess in Europe in the past years, that bill won't be the last. Considering the fiscal state of things in the Ukraine, its just the first of many bills.

And how to prevent oligarchs taking their share of that money, has not been explained so far.

I only hope that Tymochenko does not become president. She has not been that much different and was much too close to said oligarchs in the past. She should not play any role in Ukrainian affairs, I think.

By the few occasion Klitschko commented on politics in German TV, I do not see any meaningful greatness or remarkable political qualification in him to make a claim for the presidency. The only thing he has always said is that "Europe must help the Ukrainian people". That is a bit thin, and in refusal of that he does not speak for all Ukrainians, not by a huge margin, I'd say. So, I respect the boxer and sportsman in him, absolutely. But the politician leaves me completely unimpressed. And the mere desire by him to become a politician, on a principal level speaks against him. I deeply mistrust people wanting to become politicians by their own desire.

Skybird

02-24-14, 10:19 AM

Medwedew meanwhile said that Russia will respect legally binding contracts with the Ukraine. He was referring to the delivery of gas. But he also said that what happens after those contracts have run out, is a completely different thing. Here hge was referring to the fact that the treaties for Russian deliveries and pricing always have been negioated by Russaia for a limited time scale only, not with a long perspective.

In other words: already next winter the EU could have tremendous if not impossible to solve problems with supplying the energy needed to prevent Ukrainian households freezing over. And since Europe depends on massive gas imports from Russia, one can imagine that issue to become a real - well, if not hot than a very interesting situation. If Russia would decide to continue with gas deliveries to the Ukraine, then it would ask a price from both the Ukraine and the EU for that. Not to mention that low prices for the Ukraine like currently, are off the table now.

Mr Quatro

02-24-14, 01:21 PM

Here's a bit of news that correlates with the news of the new Ukraine freedom:

Fresh from a $19-billion (14-billion-euro) takeover by Facebook, mobile messaging service WhatsApp said Monday it will launch free voice calls by mid-year. One of the two owners of WhatsApp, CEO Jan Koum just sold his company to Facebook for 19 billion dollars, was born in the Ukraine and raised by his mother on food stamps in the San Francisco area.

http://business.time.com/2014/02/20/whats-app-ceo-jan-koum/
According to a profile (http://www.forbes.com/sites/parmyolson/2014/02/19/exclusive-inside-story-how-jan-koum-built-whatsapp-into-facebooks-new-19-billion-baby/) by Forbes, Koum, 38, was born and raised near Kiev, Ukraine during the Soviet era. He lived as an only child in a house that didn’t have hot water. He moved to Mountain View, California as a teenager with his mother, and lived off food stamps for a time. He taught himself computer programming and earned a job as an infrastructure engineer at Yahoo in the late 1990s. After working at Yahoo for several years he decided to launch a messaging app through which people could send text messages via the Internet instead of through cellular SMS texting. He has refused to sell his company to Facebook for years and even was denied a job working for Facebook years ago. He taught himself computer code and came up with WhatsApp to work on phones with 480 million subscriptions @ $0.99 each plus adding one million more everyday.

I bet he decided to sell based on this very real conflict in his home country of the Ukraine.

Some of those widows of the men that were killed fighting for freedom are going get taken care of ... I betcha :yep:

Phyrrus

02-24-14, 01:41 PM

[The UK is ready to provide support to Ukraine through schemes set up by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and EU, UK Finance Minister George Osborne said.
“A lot of this [support] will take the form of loans and the like, but there will be good investments in the economy of Ukraine," said Osborne.

---

First bill has been put on the table: 35 billion for the first credit tranche.

As we have learned from the state credit mess in Europe in the past years, that bill won't be the last. Considering the fiscal state of things in the Ukraine, its just the first of many bills.

End of game. This was the only thing I was afraid of. Game over. They have been bought, all those deaths for nothing... its terrifying. Really, really terrifying and demoralizing. Here we go again: debt, debt, debt for the IMF.
I really cannot understand, why people cannot comprehend where this all leads them? ist there enough examples? :/\\!!:/\\!!:/\\!!

Jimbuna

02-24-14, 02:31 PM

I bet he decided to sell based on this very real conflict in his home country of the Ukraine.

Some of those widows of the men that were killed fighting for freedom are going get taken care of ... I betcha :yep:

That would be a fantastic gesture :sunny:

Phyrrus

02-25-14, 06:12 PM

I dunno how americans can always succede buying nations for nothing. They bought natives with wiskey and taws, most of europe with chocolate and cigars (wwII), now they buy ukrans with bread... cheap, isnt it? :)

http://www.sott.net/article/273602-US-Assistant-Secretary-of-State-Victoria-Nuland-says-Washington-has-spent-5-billion-trying-to-subvert-Ukraine

Oberon

02-25-14, 09:44 PM

Bread, eh?

Worked in Yemen. :yep:

http://static.fjcdn.com/pictures/My+hat+is+bread_f1d09a_4236063.jpg

Skybird

02-26-14, 07:44 AM

Putin orders immediate test of combat readiness of all Russian military in Western and Central Russia.

Mounting demand in Ukraine to ban and forbid Russian language in all territories of the Ukraine.

Berkut riot police being disbanded by Kiew provisory government. Fate of Berkut officers uncertain.

Tymochenko said to aim at presidency becasue of intention to get "compensations" - to put it polite - for wealth lost during her time in prison. She always was a corruption queen, wasn't she. Never understood why people fell for her.

This all looks not encouraging. If the anti-Russian sentiment and attempted discrimination grows, this could not only be a chance for Putin but could force him to react in such a manner that it results in what the pro-EU lobby wants to avoid: getting the Russian army engaged in the Ukraine.

On radio they said that secret orders had been going to Sewastopol and that the Russian fleet is in a flurry of sudden activity. That report is unconfirmed, though.

mapuc

02-26-14, 10:10 AM

Putin orders immediate test of combat readiness of all Russian military in Western and Central Russia.

Heard about it in the Danish news, as the commentator said, it's just a kind of "show off" to tell the Ukrainian a few words

Markus

Jimbuna

02-26-14, 12:46 PM

Probably all for the benefit of the world press whose attention is drawn to the area atm.

mapuc

02-26-14, 01:28 PM

I don't know if you have heard NATO's response. The rhetoric may not be very strong, but there's no doubt what NATO meant by it.

Markus

Oberon

02-26-14, 03:11 PM

I don't think we're quite ready to go to DEFCON Thompson just yet though, but certainly there's a lot of chest puffing and strutting by both power spheres in the region, as to be expected.

Phyrrus

02-26-14, 03:36 PM

I think Putin is more clever than to let himself pulled into a military conflict, may that be any small one. BUt he will definitely not allow EU in his very vicinity.

I wonder what China has to say - though she has no or few direct interests in this area. I wonder -and I'm very afraid of what China would have to say about ANYTHING. I think CHINA is the most to be feared nation on Earth in the these days.

Skybird

02-26-14, 03:59 PM

China hardly will support the opposition, since their coup could serve as a precedence for a coup against Chinese autocratic party regime. So: its the same like Russia's concern.

I fail to see NATO being willing and ready to start militarily negotiate the Ukraine with the Russians. If the Russians get drawn into the Ukraine, it most likely will end like in Georgia. Politically, economically, see how little impressed the Russians are by the West's actions over Syria.

I think Russia leaving the Ukraine alone would have Russian willingness as a precondition to end the autocratic regime in Russia itself. Since that can be doubted, any speculation on how to make Russia accepting to ignore the Ukraine, is in vein. It cannot afford to do so without accepting change in its own home country, and so - dream on. While the Tartars said they will not accept Krimean secession from Kiew, they probably are not strong enough to resist Russia if Putin decides that the Krimean is to be held for Russia, no matter what.

Alex

02-26-14, 06:47 PM

Don't think you'll find that stuff translated in another language, so here's a little megaphone speech from Andre Chanclu of the France-Russia group, held on last saturday in front of the ukrainian embassy in here.

The journalist caste manipulates all of us everyday, and brings us the usual tv nonsense. Journalists are so corrupted, they can be considered as intelligence officers once they get to be sent as special envoys on war territories. In here, they're no more than blind activists without any qualms, financed by NATO and its multiple branches. Yesterday in the evening, we've got to see at tv a flagrant demonstration of their main goal : *******-***** **** (1), completely hysterical, insulting Vladimir Putin in the rudest ways.

Let there be no mistake. Be it in Damas, in Caracas, or in Kiev : the primary objective of the media is to weaken Russia, in every way possible.

Actually, I bet that is the only thing on which all of us may agree, wherever we come from, so I'll leave it there myself.

(1) : A name I can not mention in here, the united states of America are not ready. Too much people keep their eyes and ears closed and would blame myself for quoting someone mentioning another guy of a certain ethnic origin of which virtues must be praised all the time.

Oberon

02-26-14, 07:31 PM

I wonder what China has to say

Not a lot, they'll be quite happy to let Russia play with this. China is only really interested in things that happen in Chinas front yard, Taiwan, Vietnam, Japan, Korea, Phillipines, that kind of area, anything in the Atlantic really doesn't interest China that much outside of mineral acquisition.

Rockstar

02-26-14, 08:14 PM

Not a lot, they'll be quite happy to let Russia play with this. China is only really interested in things that happen in Chinas front yard, Taiwan, Vietnam, Japan, Korea, Phillipines, that kind of area, anything in the Atlantic really doesn't interest China that much outside of mineral acquisition.

... and the Bahamas.

Oberon

02-27-14, 08:18 AM

It would appear that the new Ukrainian order are big fans of the Dukes of Hazzard:

http://i.imgur.com/CNOu51c.png

In other news there have been reports of a column of APCs moving from Sevastopol to Simferpol, no-one is quite sure of their identity.

https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/1209716/photos/mpnet/1925053_630485637022109_724998342_n.jpg

Yanukovich has reappeared in Russia and gained Russian sanctuary, whilst the Russian air force has been engaging in drills near Ukrainian airspace.

This is getting a bit...tense...

Dread Knot

02-27-14, 08:37 AM

Shades of South Ossetia. I guess the Olympics are done.

I suspect that Russia will allow the eastern provinces of Ukraine to revolt on their own and then simply position troops in the rebel territories. Russia though, I am sure, is aware of how the rest of it's customs union allies are watching intently. Hopefully, Russia isn't going to try too much.

Skybird

02-27-14, 09:00 AM

Study the history of the Krimean a bit, and see that Russians' sentiments towards it compare to Serbs' sentiments towards Kosovo, in intensity of feelings. Also, more than half the population on the Krimean peninsula are ethnic Russians. Maybe Russia will write off the Donezk region. The Krimean, however: never. And that is not just because of Sewastopol, or Putinism.

Russia probably works in the background to have a votings by the population to fall away from the rest of Ukraine - and then militarily will support that against fumes and foamings from Kiew. Like they did with the disputed provinces with Georgia.

If the majority of a regional population votes for it, the West has nor argument to make against that. I have said myself in many threads that I fully support any people's right to fall away from a higher national order, if it wants that - only that it has to be able to afford sovereignity and cannot expect the former host to pay its bills.

Jimbuna

02-27-14, 10:09 AM

Looks like the temperature has just been turned up a little.

Ukrainian interim President Olexander Turchynov has warned Russia against any "military aggression" in Crimea.

He said Russia's troops from Russia's Black Sea Fleet should not move outside their naval base in Sevastopol.

The warning comes after unknown armed men seized Crimea's regional parliament and the government headquarters of the autonomous Russian-majority region.

Meanwhile, the Crimean parliament has said it wants to hold a referendum on greater self-rule.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26366700

mapuc

02-27-14, 10:40 AM

This post is not so much about the crisis itself but about what we are answering in this thread.

It's not any type of criticism of any kind it's about our psychological aspect on this issue

When some of us write "The Russian is just showing of" or "The Russians are not dumb" it's our inner fear that are afraid of what is really going to happen in that area.

So we consoles our self by writing as such

Sorry for this little detour

Markus

Skybird

02-27-14, 11:36 AM

Basing on the Ukrainian office for statistics, this shows how the per-head income is distributed amongst provinces in the Ukraine in December 2013. The East is richer than the West, numbers are in the national currency Hrywnja.

http://images.zeit.de/wirtschaft/2014-02/Ukraine-2/Ukraine-2-540x304.jpg

No doubt that Kiew will try to force unwilling Russian dominated areas to stay under its rule. The regional parliament on the Krimean peninsula has announced a public poll for mid-May.

The interim government in Kiew has said that 37 billion mysteriously "disappeared".

So many good reasons to have this country in the EU and throwing money into black holes, split or united. :dead:

Sailor Steve

02-27-14, 12:03 PM

...numbers are in the national currency Hrywnja.
How much is that in Bitcoins? :D

Jimbuna

02-27-14, 12:28 PM

LOL not even be worth that now :)

Phyrrus

02-27-14, 01:58 PM

It took me 3 nights to read through this topic and try to comprehend the often elevated language (wich exceeds my basic english), and now I must say that I am pleasantly surprised - to be honest, I was expecting the usual comments of the usual mediocre level, which I got used to on other forums. Maybe there are wars going on out there and maybe peope are suffering and even dying, but after reading this I must say: all is not lost. I really much advise both Ukranie former and actual goverment, than EU leaders, Putin and obama themselves to read this whole topic, maybe it will help them take smarter decisions :)
I have no interest in trying to lick anyone's back side by saying this, I really mean it. You subsimmers are clever people.
What I'm tryig to say by this is that I am so happy that there are still people out there (here) who are not totally brain-washed and blinded by propaganda of both sides, people that - although not into politics directly - have relatively clear vision of things, and can think for themselves, have a well shaped and well documented opinion about the world, and still care for the world we live in. (As you may figured it out, I'm a natural born idealist who lost his main belief)
Too bad you subsimmers are not in a position of power...

"This is the bitterest pain among men, to have much knowledge but no power" -Herodotus

Oberon

02-27-14, 02:49 PM

Oh, that I would be the same man in power that I am now, but power is a mysterious mistress and has a way of bending men and women alike to her whims.

mapuc makes a good observation, I have stated in this thread on multiple occasions that I don't think that Russia would overtly send in military force to the Ukraine...however the simple fact of the matter is that I have absolutely no idea. I would have likely have said a similar thing had you asked me about Abkhazia and the South Ossetian war. :hmmm:
The truth is, none of us can make a full on accurate statement, only hope that we are assessing the situation in a manner similar to those who are making the decisions are doing so, even if we are not privy to the same level of information.

But still, it's a nice mental challenge to contemplate the geo-political situation in the region, and attempt to work out the next moves of the sides involved, a bit like looking at a chess board in mid-play and trying to determine the next players move.

Returning to this line of thought, Skybird brings a fascinating diagram, which reinforces the desperate situation that West Ukraine finds itself, which means it may have no choice but to attempt to forcibly integrate the rebelling provinces into the country, which would only increase the likelihood of a Russian based intervention.

The primary swing vote is NATO and the EU countries, will they support west Ukraine in anything more than a financial and political manner? :hmmm: Russia is no doubt asking itself the same question, and no doubt the EU and NATO are putting up their best bluff to try and put Russia off taking military action, but...well...we know how good a poker player Putin is, and I suspect that he'll see straight through any western bluff. :hmmm:

Skybird

02-27-14, 05:04 PM

How much is that in Bitcoins? :DHehe, the big hope of some new economists.

To me, this and other virtual currencies as well as plastic money is nothing more than just FIAT paper money without paper. Surprisingly, some Austrians also fell for this idea, which really surprised me.

Phyrrus

02-27-14, 07:05 PM

I personally hope that Putin will finally acheve his goal and halt the Eu expansion. Not because I like Putin so much, not because I dont wish freedom for Ucrainians - although I live this "freedom" everyday myself and I dont quite like it, but hey, they have the right to learn on their own skin.
I wish EU expansion to be stopped (by anyone, not only Putin) because I fear she will fell apart if she keeps pushing her boundaries out so fast. Putin is ONE will, China is ONE will, but EU is already so divided, is falling apart, and i think she will not last to see my grandchildren. EU has so many great conflicts within her borders already that she wont survive if wont stop and strenghten herself from inside. From where I stand, Eu looks more rotten from inside in only 20 years than roman empire could rot in 500 yrs. Or maybe i'm just not standing in the right place?

mapuc

02-27-14, 07:25 PM

Jimbuna

02-28-14, 05:31 AM

I don't know what's going to happen tomorrow or in the near future. I don't know what Russia is going to do, if things gets out of hand i Crimea.

There's only one thing I know-if Russia intervene, NATO will not just sit there.

Markus

Well we may well find out if that will be the case pretty soon.

Ukraine's interior minister has accused Russian naval forces of occupying Sevastopol airport in the autonomous region of Crimea.

Arsen Avakov called their presence an "armed invasion".

But Russia's Black Sea Fleet has denied that Russian servicemen are taking part.

The other main Crimean airport, Simferopol, was also occupied by armed men on Friday. The men are thought to be pro-Russia militia.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26379722

Oberon

02-28-14, 05:34 AM

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26379722

Armed men, said by Mr Avakov to be Russian soldiers, arrived in the Sevastopol military airport near Russia's Black Sea Fleet Base on Friday morning.
The men were patrolling outside, backed up by armoured vehicles, but Ukrainian military and border guards remained inside, Mr Avakov said.
But Russia's Black Sea Fleet has denied that Russian servicemen are taking part.
The other main Crimean airport, Simferopol, was also occupied by armed men on Friday. The men are thought to be pro-Russia militia.
http://ufu.co.il/files/kwyx7n2z0n7lvgcb5dd3.jpg

http://i.imgur.com/tXZXYaX.jpg

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z9ucir5HsvY

http://i1.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/original/000/242/631/382.gif

Skybird

02-28-14, 05:53 AM

I guess this is militia. The majority of people on the Crimean is ethnic Russian.

Nationwide, across all of Ukraine, Russians form 17-20% of the population.

Oberon

02-28-14, 07:24 AM

I'd say that certainly the outer circle of forces are militia, the inner circle likely also militia, or perhaps 'volunteer' forces. However, it's an escalation, and since the head of the Ukrainian armed forces has just been fired, military control is flakey, mistakes can be made, things could spiral.

TarJak

02-28-14, 07:50 AM

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-02-28/ukraine-minister-accuses-russia-of-armed-invasion/5291986

This report quotes Putin as saying talks are continuing with Ukraine.
The Kremlin said Mr Putin had ordered his government to continue talks with Ukraine on economic and trade relations, and to consult foreign partners including the International Monetary Fund on financial aid.

It also said Mr Putin ordered the government to consider a request from Crimea for humanitarian aid but made no direct reference to the latest events.

Skybird

02-28-14, 08:06 AM

A German article makes me think it could also be another scenario. The author points out that on many videos and photos the uniforms show a very consistent look and that the units are extremely well organised and disciplined, and are very well equipped. Also, they operate with great coordination and precisions, very focussed, and obviously know very well what they are doing, and when, and where. That implies a very strong central command with the needed means of communication.

http://cdn1.spiegel.de/images/image-665070-galleryV9-icxu.jpg

http://cdn2.spiegel.de/images/image-664965-galleryV9-qvml.jpg

http://cdn1.spiegel.de/images/image-664964-galleryV9-nbmt.jpg

I think this speaks not so much for just some groups of hobby warriors or a militia, but that it could be Russian special units who have took off their nationality emblems and regular uniforms.

What would the legal status of such troops operating in another formally sovereign country be then? I assume nothing too positive?

The Russians have 13,000 troops and military members in Sewastopol.

Or is it Ukrainian troops that try to deceive the West over a Russian intervention in order to bring NATO into this, like Shaakashviuli tried in Georgia when he gave his many lies as an excuse for his demand why NATO should intervene on his behalf?

Oberon

02-28-14, 08:08 AM

According to the BBC, a Russian frigate is patrolling the entrance to Balaklava.

Oberon

02-28-14, 08:20 AM

A German article makes me think it could also be another scenario. The author points out that on many videos and photos the uniforms show a very consistent look and that the units are extremely well organised and disciplined, and are very well equipped. Also, they operate with great coordination and precisions, very focussed.

I think this speaks not so much for just some groups of hobby warriors or a militia, but that it could be Russian special units who have took off their nationality emblems and regular uniforms.

What would the legal status of such troops operating in another formally sovereign country be then? I assume nothing too positive?

The Russians have 13,000 troops and military members in Sewastopol.

Or is it Ukrainian troops that try to deceive the West over a Russian intervention in order to bring NATO into this, like Shaakashviuli tried in Georgia when he gave his many lies as an excuse for his demand why NATO should intervene on his behalf?

That's what I thought too, that's not a rag-tag band of men, undoubtedly there are some militia there, but it just seems to co-ordinated.
They've apparently pulled back from the airport and are maintain ro*******s (road b-lo-cks) around it.
I doubt it's Ukrainian forces, at least ones under central command, since there is no real central command at the moment after the head of the Ukrainian armed forces was fired. It's, in my opinion anyway, either Russian backed and equipped militia forces, or Russian special forces posing as Ukrainian forces, like you say, Russian speaking forces wouldn't be a strange thing in parts of the Ukraine.

One rather odd thing strikes me though, in a few of these pictures and video footage of these men at the airport I've seen...some of them don't have magazines in their rifles...

Flamebatter90

02-28-14, 08:26 AM

I read somewhere that they (the guys at the airport) had armored vehicles as well. Looking at them, they certainly seem very organized.

Jimbuna

02-28-14, 08:30 AM

A German article makes me think it could also be another scenario. The author points out that on many videos and photos the uniforms show a very consistent look and that the units are extremely well organised and disciplined, and are very well equipped. Also, they operate with great coordination and precisions, very focussed, and obviously know very well what they are doing, and when, and where. That implies a very strong central command with the needed means of communication.

I think this speaks not so much for just some groups of hobby warriors or a militia, but that it could be Russian special units who have took off their nationality emblems and regular uniforms.

What would the legal status of such troops operating in another formally sovereign country be then? I assume nothing too positive?

The Russians have 13,000 troops and military members in Sewastopol.

Or is it Ukrainian troops that try to deceive the West over a Russian intervention in order to bring NATO into this, like Shaakashviuli tried in Georgia when he gave his many lies as an excuse for his demand why NATO should intervene on his behalf?

Spetsnaz :hmmm:

According to the BBC, a Russian frigate is patrolling the entrance to Balaklava.

Showing the flag.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26382555

Oberon

02-28-14, 08:40 AM

Turns out the Frigate is actually a corvette... :haha: A Tarantul III class corvette, the Ivanovets.

http://cdn2.shipspotting.com/photos/middle/7/2/6/1386627.jpg

Skybird

02-28-14, 08:48 AM

Spetsnaz :hmmm:

Ah, Russian Chuck Norrises. Would explain why some of them do not need magazines.

Jimbuna

02-28-14, 11:27 AM

Ah, Russian Chuck Norrises. Would explain why some of them do not need magazines.

Looks like a job for Rambo.

http://s11.postimg.org/ynx1dw8lf/image.jpg (http://postimage.org/)

STEED

02-28-14, 11:31 AM

Dave Cameron is ready to throw pots of money at them.

mapuc

02-28-14, 01:59 PM

I stand corrected, NATO are not going to do anything, if Russia intervene in Crimea-Just read it in a Danish newspaper.

Markus

Jimbuna

02-28-14, 02:27 PM

I stand corrected, NATO are not going to do anything, if Russia intervene in Crimea-Just read it in a Danish newspaper.

Markus

I don't doubt anybody expects NATO or the EU to do anything militarily but the EU may well throw loads of money at the problem.

Mr Quatro

02-28-14, 02:41 PM

Hard to decide which side to be on ... raised to hate what is evil and cling to what is good.

Russia should have a say so in what a former country decides to do.

The president of the Ukraine says he is still the president, but yet he is in hiding. Pro Russians galore and pro-freedom fighters asking for EU to bail them out.

This problem needs more study than I have time to give it ... "please Mr Putin no more blood shed" :nope:

Schroeder

02-28-14, 02:55 PM

One rather odd thing strikes me though, in a few of these pictures and video footage of these men at the airport I've seen...some of them don't have magazines in their rifles...
Could be sort of a de-escalation thing. But it doesn't take very long to put one in if needed, believe me. :88)

Oberon

02-28-14, 03:01 PM

kranz

02-28-14, 03:36 PM

Russia should have a say so in what a former country decides to do.

:timeout:
please say that you are either buzzed or on some hard drugs cuz if this is trolling, I'm giving you -3/10.

Poland, the former Czechoslovakia, the former Yugoslavia, Belarus, Lithuania and sth like a dozen of other countries are 'former USSR' (with different levels of independence ofc).

I tried to read through the thread, stuck on SB's gibberish but also noticed how quite a few ppl actually believed in his story...so wow..
.My favorite fragments are 'the blue map' and '70-80% are Russians'.

There are a few villages in Poland where Gypsies make 90% of inhabitants and Poles need 'Gypsyland visas' to enter these villages.
A true story, guys. 110% of truth.

mapuc

02-28-14, 03:36 PM

Read the Swedish news and Russia is going to invade Crimea tomorrow. Read the Danish news and The Russian have no interest in invading Crimea.

Markus

kranz

02-28-14, 03:51 PM

Read the Swedish news and Russia is going to invade Crimea tomorrow. Read the Danish news and The Russian have no interest in invading Crimea.

Markus

next time read SkyBirdMedia, you silly billy.
SkyBirdMedia (SBM) = the only credible source of information.:up:

Jimbuna

02-28-14, 04:00 PM

I'm thinking pressure is being applied by Russia by way of troop movements and exercises as well as 'armed men' holding key points so as to provoke an armed clash that will give Putin the excuse he needs to act in a similar fashion as to what happened in Georgia.

I hope I'm wrong but that is the impression I am beginning to get.

Catfish

02-28-14, 04:30 PM

Alex

02-28-14, 04:42 PM

The President of Ukraine, Viktor Yanukovich, reappeared in Russia yesterday, and held a press conference today, in Rostov-on-Don, a russian city close to the ukrainian border. There, he affirmed he's "not been overthrown", and promised to "keep up the fight for the future of Ukraine".

Mr Yanukovich stated that he's "been forced to leave the country after receiving death threats", and declared that "those who took power in Kiev are nationalists and pro-fascists strapping young lads".
He considers that "the actual upheaval that resulted in casualties in the country is the result of an inexplicable policy from the West, that showed too much leniency towards Maidan".

Viktor Yanukovich, who's now the subject of an arrest warrant ("for mass murder") issued by the new political power, also objected to a military intervention. "I think Ukraine must stay one and indivisible, and I'll be back soon", he added.

Fastening my seatbelt. :hmm2:

TFatseas

02-28-14, 04:45 PM

Some serious firepower flying into the Crimea.

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=287_1393605865

kranz

02-28-14, 05:03 PM

b) Putin just said the Crimea asked for humanitary help

When Poland was divided in 1772 for the first time, the tsar claimed that he wanted to protect the religious minorities inhabiting Polish territories.
When Poland was backstabbed on 17th September 1939 Stalind said he had to protect Russian citizens.

When will you guys learn that Russia never wages 'offensive' wars?

XabbaRus

02-28-14, 05:08 PM

a) lots of Ukrainians suddenly get russian passports
(which mean that those "russians" have to be protected, best by an invasion)

b) Putin just said the Crimea asked for humanitary help

My bet is Russia going the rough way, and right now.

Lots of the residents of The Crimea have had Russian passports for a long time. 60% are Russian. God knows what will happen. Of course Russia would like the Crimea back. Easiest thing would be to just allow that to happen. Then leave The Ukraine to it. Why would the EU want the Ukraine anyway. Also you can't compare this situation to Georgia. In that situation Saakashvili did launch an unprovoked attack. Also there are conflicting reports. The airport was closed then open. Russian gun men outside Ukrainian troops inside.

Oberon

02-28-14, 05:10 PM

Some serious firepower flying into the Crimea.

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=287_1393605865

Wargame: Crimean Escalation... (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wargame:_European_Escalation)

Mr Quatro

02-28-14, 05:28 PM

State department chess move: http://news.yahoo.com/us-says-yanukovych-lost-legitimacy-lead-ukraine-193304920.html

Washington shot back that in fleeing his country the 63-year-old, who had faced months of protests after overturning a decision to sign a deal to move closer to the EU, had lost his right to govern.

"We believe that Yanukovych has lost his legitimacy as he abdicated his responsibilities... he left Kiev, and he has left a vacuum of leadership," said State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki.

Onkel Neal

02-28-14, 06:05 PM

So, where's the Ukrainian air force? They just let Rooskie choppers fly in unopposed?

Skybird

02-28-14, 06:51 PM

So, where's the Ukrainian air force? They just let Rooskie choppers fly in unopposed?
The military leadership is in chaos, and top staff partially fired.

The air force in parts is attached to the groudn army, the grpoudn army is organise din three army groups, one in the west, center, and east. The eastern group'S loyalty you cannot take for granted.

Half of their fighters are not combat ready would need longer time of preparation before you can send them into service. They operate Su-27, 30 and Mig 29 in this role.

The Ukraine is probably neither willing nor capable to challenge Russian military in the vicinity of Russian sensitive installations like Sewastopol. Also, this would give the Russians the excuse to go in full force that Putin probably is looking for and hopes to provoke.

Skybird

02-28-14, 06:55 PM

The trouble with the Ukraine is that there's good and bad on both sides. Lots of nationalism, fascism, racism, and corruption in the mix. It's an ugly combination, and I don't think it's going to get any better soon.
And Islam, believe it or not. The Tartarians (Tartars?) are Muslim, and traditionally hostile to Moscow. They are no big group, but see the Crimean as their home ground.

But currently, three in five people on the Crimean are ethnic Russians.

mapuc

02-28-14, 07:37 PM

One thing you can say things, things are developing fast now. Hope peace after all get a chance, although it seems as if the parties are more interested in fighting for the sake of war than for peace.

Markus

Alex

02-28-14, 07:54 PM

The structural similarities between Poland and Turkey in relation to Ukraine and Syria need to be examined in order to more clearly understand how the ‘Lead from Behind’ template has been applied to both case studies.

First of all, the ‘Lead from Behind’ strategy has been defined as “discreet U.S. military assistance with [others] doing the trumpeting”. It is the new strategy of warfare for theaters where the US, for whatever reasons, is reluctant to directly militarily engage itself. It relies on using regional allies/’leaders’ as proxies to further US geostrategic and geopolitical goals via asymmetrical measures while Washington pivots to Asia, where it aims to present a conventional deterrent to China.

Both Poland and Turkey are the US’ puppets of choice in their respective theaters against their neighboring targeted states (Ukraine and Syria). At the least, the US provides intelligence support and the training of ‘opposition’ units, while Poland and Turkey pull the weight in directly assisting those members during their deployments in the victimized nations. In the case of Ukraine, the US utilized NGOs to infiltrate the country over a more than 10-year period and also allocated $5 billion to “help Ukraine achieve [the development of democratic institutions]”. The National Endowment for Democracy has also been pivotal in peddling the ‘Kony 2012 of Ukraine’ in order to advance their psy-op campaign against Kiev, just as ‘Syrian Danny’ was the version deployed against Damascus.

But the similarities do not end there. [...]
Poland as the ‘Slavic Turkey’ of NATO Destabilization, by Andrew Korybko (http://www.voltairenet.org/article182276.html). :yep:

XabbaRus

03-01-14, 05:27 AM

Dan D

03-01-14, 05:32 AM

Where does the „pro-fascist“ „argument“ come from („many of those who took power in the Ukraine are pro-fascist“)?

When Nazi Germany occupied the Ukraine in 1941, the German troops in the beginning at some places were welcomed als „liberators“ from Stalin's oppressive regime. This of course changed soon as people realised that the Germans had come to kill or enslave them.

Same on the Crimea: some Crimean Tatars were pro-German at the beginning, because of Stalin's oppression to them, about 15.000 to 20.000 served as Tatar Legion in the German Army, but then 20.000 Tatars also served in the Red Army.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimean_Tatars#In_the_Soviet_Union_.281917.E2.80.9 31991.29

Jimbuna

03-01-14, 05:32 AM

The new pro-Moscow leader of Ukraine's autonomous Crimea region has asked Russian President Vladimir Putin for help to ensure peace.

A Kremlin source said it would "not leave unnoticed" the request from Sergiy Aksyonov.

US President Barack Obama warned Moscow against intervention after mysterious troop movements.

Something may well come of this during the weekend...I can see Putin calling Obamas bluff.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26397323

TarJak

03-01-14, 06:31 AM

Obama seem's to be raising the stakes:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-03-01/ukraine-russia-of-open-aggression-crimea/5292582

Oberon

03-01-14, 06:45 AM

These reports of transports flying into the airport with troops are unconfirmed. First it was 5 now 13. All reports coming from the Ukrainian govt. However a BBC reporter near the airport couldn't see any or hear any movement. It's not like you can hide an IL-76. Also Ukrainian forces have the same kit as Russians so who knows who is what around the airports.

On another note you can see the cracks in the opposition already. Tymoshenko has said she will run for president. So has Klitschko who commented though he has no issue with her running finds it strange and that the opposition should work together not run against each other. Naivity? Welcome to Ukrainian politics. Tymoshenko is looking for a way back in and seen her chance.

You could try putting billboards around it I guess. :haha: No, I kid, I kid, it's clear that there's going to be a lot of misinformation flying around, that's one of the reasons I'm reading both the BBCs reports and RussiaToday, to get views from both sides of the argument.

Tymoshenko... :nope: First she said she wouldn't run but the sirens call of politics seems to have overwhelmed her, no real surprise and it's clear that the opposition is a very fragmented group of political allegiances, all across the political spectrum, from the far right to more centrist, and in the vacuum that has been created by the deposing of Yanukovich, all of them are going to be vying for whatever power they can grab. Given time it'll straighten out (at least until the people get bored of the current government and overthrow that, ala Egypt) but with the situation in Crimea, time is a luxury they might not have if they make the wrong move in this very delicate chess game.

Here's my thoughts on what happened with the troop movements. The troops at the airport were likely Russian, probably Marines from Sevastopol, but those who took the parliament building in Crimea were militia. The Russian marines were likely sent on orders to see what the Ukrainian military and the rest of Europe would do if an armed incursion happened. It's possible they were also sent to recon the area prior to a possible future intervention. The corvette was sent to Balaklava to watch what the Ukrainian naval forces would do in response. Having gathered this data, Russia now can sit back and wait to see what move Kiev is going to make next, before possibly supporting Crimean independence. Really, if ever there was a time to act, it would be around now with the Ukrainian military in disarray following the sack of its head and a rather limited military response to the aforementioned probe.
I'd believe more it was possibly a Ukrainian setup (as Skybird put forward the possibility of, earlier) if the Ivanovets hadn't have chosen that time to show up outside Balaklava harbour, that was too co-incidental.

TarJak

03-01-14, 07:31 AM

Yatsenyuk says country refuses to respond with force to Russian 'provocation':

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-03-01/new-ukraine-pm-refuses-to-respond-with-force-to-russia/5293118

Won't or can't? Passive resistance has not worked in the past against Russian aggression.

Oberon

03-01-14, 07:42 AM

More the latter than the former I'd wager, there's jack all the Ukrainian military can do if Russia moves in force, however I doubt Russia will move in force because they don't want to escalate things that quickly, they're happy to slowly turn up the heat, so that the frog in the pan doesn't realise he's being cooked until its too late. :03:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bhdw6tACEAAl2jx.png

There's scattered reports of Russian military movements, of armed men blocking the entrance to the Ukrainian military base at Sevastopol, and that the Ukrainian fleet has been ordered to put to sea, that gunmen from Kiev have attacked the Crimean interior ministry but been repelled and that other Ukrainian cities in the east are rising up in rebellion.
Lots of chaff out there to sort through, it's going to be a long weekend. :dead:

Skybird

03-01-14, 07:48 AM

Putin does not care for his prestige in the West, not one bit. Nor does he trust the West. Before he came to powers, and Yeltzin ruled, he witnessed for too long how the West cheated and betrayed Russia and broke agreements and promises as if they meant nothing. He never will trust the West again.

Any Western assumption grounding on that Putin considers how the West his perceiving what he does, personally, must lead to misled and irrelevant expectations, therefore. He will do what he can do, and not care for his prestige in the West at all.

That's why I must smile often these days when I listen to Western diplomats.

With roughly 30%, Russia still is Europe's biggest provider of gas (before Algeria, I think). A big share of transports have been relocated from transfer pipes in the Ukraine, to pipes in the Baltic.

I assume the Ukraine leaders now cry over the day when they gave away their huge stockpiles of nuclear weapons for nothing more than lip-serviced security guarantees from Russia and the West alike.

One should differ between a Russian military claim for all of Ukraine, or just the Crimean peninsula. While the first is not to be accepted, in case of the latter one has to realise the high priority interests that region has for Russia, it is of vital interest. Western politicians once again seem to expect their opponents acting stupid and self-damaging. They always seem to demand that. It seems to me that Putin has no intention to comply with that demand.

In chess, it is stupid to base one's own plan on the weakness of the opponent. Instead you calculate your plan on basis of the strongest moves you can see to be available to him. It's no cooperative game, and good will has no room in it. In the end, not even bluffing. You cannot bluff against better calculation by the other.

Jimbuna

03-01-14, 08:35 AM

Been watching the BBC and Sky news channels (hopping between them and the Leeds game) and I'm convinced the troops at the airport and government building in Crimea are indeed Russian.

Putin has been asked by the pro Moscow leader of the Crimean area for help, the Ukraine's military are in semi dissaray without coherent leadership and won't dare act so by giving Putin the excuse he previously had to act on Georgia....game all but over barr the shouting and voices of protest from the west.

Putin gets the Crimea back and possibly a substantial part of eastern Ukraine for good measure....they will of course be 'self governing' and the Russian roll will only be in acting as a protective umbrella to ensure peace and stability for the population.

Skybird

03-01-14, 09:32 AM

Putin has asked the Russian parliament for approval of deploying more Russian troops to the Crimean. There can be little doubt about the outcome of that.

Faster than the EU can shiver or Obama can cough, there will be additional massive reinforcements heading to the Crimean peninsula. The Russian momentum seems to overrun Wetsern "diplomacy". Why am I not surprised.

Skybird

03-01-14, 09:33 AM

OH, I'm late. Interfax just reported that the Russian federation council indeed has approved Putin's request. Anyway, I am quite certain that the troops are already in midair and on ships anyway.

Alex

03-01-14, 09:53 AM

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/star-investor-george-soros-wants-debt-relief-for-greece-a-926493.html:hmm2:...

http://img15.hostingpics.net/pics/122270inno.gifhttp://img15.hostingpics.net/pics/957026de984e25c1a2e44692f353c109558a13square.pnght tp://img15.hostingpics.net/pics/122270inno.gif

http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/george-soros-calls-on-the-eu--and-germany-in-particular--to-take-the-leadWhy am I not surprised.
:haha:
http://img15.hostingpics.net/pics/866314tumblrmtd4kcnLOY1qkiyi1o1r1400.gif

Jimbuna

03-01-14, 09:57 AM

OH, I'm late. Interfax just reported that the Russian federation council indeed has approved Putin's request. Anyway, I am quite certain that the troops are already in midair and on ships anyway.

Sadly, the question now is....will Putin once again upstage Obama and leave him looking weak in the eyes of the world?

Skybird

03-01-14, 10:08 AM

Sadly, the question now is....will Putin once again upstage Obama and leave him looking weak in the eyes of the world?
Sure Putin will, why not? Why giving up doing that when before it has worked so well?

Neither the Europeans nor the Americans will begin a shooting war against Russia over a place that is so unimportant for the West, like the Crimean, or even the full Ukraine.

Regarding other ways of sanctioning the Russians, economically and politically, the Kreml has more than enough capacities and options to fully retaliate for any such step.

In the end, there will be much loud wording, and time passing, then a compromise will be declared and a cleaning of relations, and anything will settle down, with the Crimean having switched sides and Kiew's reputation being left in the dust. Will serve as a drastic disillusioning to Klitschko, I guess, whom I still see as relatively naive.

The Crimean is too important for the Russians, they cannot give it up, they just cannot. No use in seeing it through EU's eyes, the only realistic perspective here is by seeing it through Russian eyes.

This is a fight that is not worth enough for us to pick it up foolish-heartedly.

Jimbuna

03-01-14, 10:17 AM

Sure Putin will, why not? Why giving up doing that when before it has worked so well?

Neither the Europeans nor the Americans will begin a shooting war against Russia over a place that is so unimportant for the West, like the Crimean, or even the full Ukraine.

Regarding other ways of sanctioning the Russians, economically and politically, the Kreml has more than enough capacities and options to fully retaliate for any such step.

In the end, there will be much loud wording, and time passing, then a compromise will be declared and a cleaning of relations, and anything will settle down, with the Crimean having switched sides and Kiew's reputation being left in the dust. Will serve as a drastic disillusioning to Klitschko, I guess, whom I still see as relatively naive.

The Crimean is too important for the Russians, they cannot give it up, they just cannot. No use in seeing it through EU's eyes, the only realistic perspective here is by seeing it through Russian eyes.

This is a fight that is not worth enough for us to pick it up foolish-heartedly.

TBH I agree :yep:

nikimcbee

03-01-14, 10:39 AM

Sadly, the question now is....will Putin once again upstage Obama and leave him looking weak in the eyes of the world?
Yes.

We've got the wrong set of politicians to handle this.

After his round of golf is finished, Obama will draw a red line someplace, then continue golfing.

At he other end of the spectrum we've got her:
http://www.nndb.com/people/845/000118491/sarah-palin-1-sized.jpg

God only knows what she would do.:dead: I don't even remember what her plan was if Russia acted aggressively towards another nation. Rattle sabers? Rattle sabers, pick a fight?
http://thebigredbiotechblog.typepad.com/.a/6a0120a77f675b970b0133ecc54daf970b-pi

I don't see how Putin can loose this one, unless he totally wimps out and backs down or something crazy happens?

I just feel sorry for the average Ukrainian citizen caught in the middle.

kranz

03-01-14, 10:43 AM

This is a fight that is not worth enough for us to pick it up foolish-heartedly.

I've seen that sentence before...
Oh, even twice. In a history book somewhere around 1936 and 1938.

TBH I agree :yep:
fixed.

Skybird

03-01-14, 10:49 AM

I just feel sorry for the average Ukrainian citizen caught in the middle.
The ordinary man in the Ukraine will not feel much effect from this (if a shooting war is avoided), because the overwhelming majoirty people in the Ukraine do not live on the Crimean peninsula anyway. On the Crimean, the Russians are the majority anyway, and so only those Ukrainians living on the Crimean are effected by this crisis and its consequnces. All others suffer one or two bruises to their sentiments and nationalistic ego, but everyday worries and economic crisis will soon demand their prioritized acting again. In other words: when your belly is ekmpty and you are drownming in debts, other demands will run your thinking than just nationalism and pride.

In the end, the Crimean area is a messed up place since much, much longer already than just the past years or decades.

Would I suffer something if the Saarland in Germany breaks away from the German federal state? Or Berlin, or Hamburg (both are federal states)? I doubt it.

In case of Berlin, it would even be a great relief. :D

Oberon

03-01-14, 10:50 AM

Oberon

03-01-14, 11:10 AM

As of now, I'm moving to DEFCON Thompson (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Emdzsz_XvfA):

http://i290.photobucket.com/albums/ll270/sweetchinmusical/490_3.jpg

kranz

03-01-14, 11:14 AM

Aaah, Godwin, and not by the usual suspects either. :rock:

isn't history the best teacher?

Oberon

03-01-14, 11:35 AM

isn't history the best teacher?

And what is the lesson to learn here? WWIII? :hmmm:

Skybird

03-01-14, 11:50 AM

Aaah, Godwin, and not by the usual suspects either. :rock:

Getting back on topic.

So, it's happened, the Russians are on the move, it was always 50/50 that they would. I honestly didn't think that they would push it, but there we go, now the question is whether they will stay in Crimea and East Ukraine or go for the whole shebang.

There is nothing, absolutely nothing, the west can do, and the west knows that, and so does Putin.

God help Ukraine. :nope:
It'S not all that bad, Oberon. If they militarily occupy the whole East Ukraine, then this would be another ball game again than if they just go for the Crimean peninsula where Russians are the majority population anyway. Outside the Crimean, Russians are a minority, Putin knows that. They will balk at the rest of the Ukraine, but I currently expect that chances will be their forces staying within the Crimean and not trying to occupy the whole East.

Especially the Western regions of the Ukraine he will leave to the EU and Washington-dominated ICF to pay their bills. That will be at the additional disadvantage of the West, and so is tasty for Russia. The Eastern Ukraine - I'd be surprised if he would risk a military shootout over it, if the Ukraine does not try to militarily "liberate" the Crimean. Kiew really should learn some lessons form Georgia now.

The ethnic majority of people on the Crimean is Russian, nobody denies that. If this majority by referendum wants to split be Russian, I have no problem with that. That is not different than what the Scots try. No local population is the property of any central government far away. If a region wants to succeed, inj principal it has the natural right to do so. A right for demand by self-legitimizing central governments to enforce "national integrity", does not exist,. nit in the understanding of a reasonable, natural law, or morals. It's not as if Moscow holds guns at the sleeves of people on the Crimean.

At least not this time.

Note that in past years, Tartars have claimed back the Crimean for themselves increasingly, although they now are a minority only. But they are Muslim and have ties to the notoriously critical and unsecure Southern, Islamic regions and neighbours of Russia. Moscow wants to make sure it does not send a message of weakness to these by spoiling up the game for the Crimean, becasue this could encourage Muslim terror again in its own South. And then it could become very nasty again. Chechnya, anyone? Say what you want, the Russians are not shy to become brutally violent if you step beyond their alarm wires too far.