Huge pro-EU rally grips Ukraine [Archive] - Page 2

Oberon

03-01-14, 12:36 PM

Oberon. Just reading your long previous post. I'd agree. However about Ivanovets according to the BBC locals said this is quite common seeing a warship hanging about.

Oh, didn't realise that, I guess ELINT monitoring or just a general reminder that "We're not going away".

It'S not all that bad, Oberon. If they militarily occupy the whole East Ukraine, then this would be another ball game again than if they just go for the Crimean peninsula where Russians are the majority population anyway. Outside the Crimean, Russians are a minority, Putin knows that. They will balk at the rest of the Ukraine, but I currently expect that chances will be their forces staying within the Crimean and not trying to occupy the whole East.

Especially the Western regions of the Ukraine he will leave to the EU and Washington-dominated ICF to pay their bills. That will be at the additional disadvantage of the West, and so is tasty for Russia. The Eastern Ukraine - I'd be surprised if he would risk a military shootout over it, if the Ukraine does not try to militarily "liberate" the Crimean. Kiew really should learn some lessons form Georgia now.

The ethnic majority of people on the Crimean is Russian, nobody denies that. If this majority by referendum wants to split be Russian, I have no problem with that. That is not different than what the Scots try. No local population is the property of any central government far away. If a region wants to succeed, inj principal it has the natural right to do so. A right for demand by self-legitimizing central governments to enforce "national integrity", does not exist,. nit in the understanding of a reasonable, natural law, or morals. It's not as if Moscow holds guns at the sleeves of people on the Crimean.

At least not this time.

Note that in past years, Tartars have claimed back the Crimean for themselves increasingly, although they now are a minority only. But they are Muslim and have ties to the notoriously critical and unsecure Southern, Islamic regions and neighbours of Russia. Moscow wants to make sure it does not send a message of weakness to these by spoiling up the game for the Crimean, becasue this could encourage Muslim terror again in its own South. And then it could become very nasty again. Chechnya, anyone? Say what you want, the Russians are not shy to become brutally violent if you step beyond their alarm wires too far.

It does look like it's going to be just Crimea so far, but with Donetsk also rising up against Kiev, the door is always open for operations in East Ukraine too, and it's the fact that the west is forced to either ante up or fold, there's a lot of pressure on both sides, a lot of wang waving, and this could go south quickly. Then there's the Budapest Memoradum which adds another layer of complexity to the matter.

It's a mess, in short, and going to get messier, but perhaps...perhaps things will calm down after Russia takes Crimea. I honestly don't know, I did not think that Putin would actually resort to military force in the situation where he could have used the gas switch as a cudgel to beat the Ukraine into submission.

Mr Quatro

03-01-14, 12:50 PM

Yes.

We've got the wrong set of politicians to handle this.

After his round of golf is finished, Obama will draw a red line someplace, then continue golfing.

At he other end of the spectrum we've got her:
http://www.nndb.com/people/845/000118491/sarah-palin-1-sized.jpg

God only knows what she would do.:dead: I don't even remember what her plan was if Russia acted aggressively towards another nation. Rattle sabers? Rattle sabers, pick a fight?
http://thebigredbiotechblog.typepad.com/.a/6a0120a77f675b970b0133ecc54daf970b-pi

I don't see how Putin can loose this one, unless he totally wimps out and backs down or something crazy happens?

I just feel sorry for the average Ukrainian citizen caught in the middle.

I like your post mcbee and your choice of photo's ... however a picture of Christie and Hillary would be more in line with asking what would they do in this crisis.

Christie could cause a traffic jam at the border preventing Russian troops from entering the country and Hillary could take that all important phone call in the middle of the night that her past campaign ads touted.

I agree with feeling sorry for the average Ukrainian citizen caught in the middle.

The USA has not fought a war all by itself in a long time ... Vietnam perhaps or Panama maybe.

The war drums are beating :o

nikimcbee

03-01-14, 12:57 PM

I like your post mcbee and your choice of photo's ... however a picture of Christie and Hillary would be more in line with asking what would they do in this crisis.

Christie could cause a traffic jam at the border preventing Russian troops from entering the country and Hillary could take that all important phone call in the middle of the night that her past campaign ads touted.

The war drums are beating :o

http://www.hyscience.com/what-difference-does-it-make-meme-generator-what-difference-does-it-make-ee8d52_zps7f4cd1051.jpg
What difference does it make what Putin does...:shifty:

http://media.nj.com/njv_editorial_page/photo/9467807-large.jpg
OMG, I meet Bruce Springsteen.

Hopefully this doesn't escalate, or we're fubared.

03-01-14, 01:14 PM

I just feel sorry for the average Ukrainian citizen caught in the middle.

Maybe you should give average Ukrainian more credit.

mapuc

03-01-14, 01:34 PM

What do we ordinary subsimmers really know about foreign politics?

Take a look in the beginning in this thread and most of us wrote, that Putin wouldn't be that dumb and It's not in the Russians interest to invade Crimea.

Here's something else. This Crisis is not going lead to some kind of a WWIII or other big war. Reason? Our leaders are chicken

Is that good or bad?

Markus

Oberon

03-01-14, 02:09 PM

Well, I'm not particularly fond of buckets of sunshine, so I guess that's a good thing.

Aktungbby

03-01-14, 02:39 PM

Take a look in the beginning in this thread and most of us wrote, that Putin wouldn't be that dumb and It's not in the Russians interest to invade Crimea.

http://cimsec.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/vladimir-putin-4-horseback-246x300.png Leading the charge: from his 'headquarters in the saddle'! :O:

Oberon

03-01-14, 02:51 PM

http://i.imgur.com/wXwMQXa.jpg

Jimbuna

03-01-14, 02:59 PM

Jamie, does that sign read Yalta at the bottom?

Oberon

03-01-14, 03:01 PM

Jamie, does that sign read Yalta at the bottom?

Yup.

Tango589

03-01-14, 03:02 PM

Jamie, does that sign read Yalta at the bottom?
It says 'Malta' because he's taken a wrong turn.

Jimbuna

03-01-14, 03:15 PM

Yup.

Famed for the conference between Churchill, Roosevelt and Stalin...I suspected as much :up:

TarJak

03-01-14, 03:16 PM

The USA has not fought a war all by itself in a long time ... Vietnam perhaps or Panama maybe.

The war drums are beating :o
You might want to check out the list of combatants for Vietnam before saying that.

TarJak

03-01-14, 03:22 PM

Famed for the conference between Churchill, Roosevelt and Stalin...I suspected as much :up:As Yalta is. In the vicinity it should be no surprise.

Skybird

03-01-14, 03:26 PM

Oh, didn't realise that, I guess ELINT monitoring or just a general reminder that "We're not going away".

It does look like it's going to be just Crimea so far, but with Donetsk also rising up against Kiev, the door is always open for operations in East Ukraine too, and it's the fact that the west is forced to either ante up or fold, there's a lot of pressure on both sides, a lot of wang waving, and this could go south quickly. Then there's the Budapest Memoradum which adds another layer of complexity to the matter.

It's a mess, in short, and going to get messier, but perhaps...perhaps things will calm down after Russia takes Crimea. I honestly don't know, I did not think that Putin would actually resort to military force in the situation where he could have used the gas switch as a cudgel to beat the Ukraine into submission.
He does not need to ressort to military force, if the Ukraine does not become insane.

What does Putin want? - A customs union and Eurasian union that both should serve as the formalization of the Russian claim for a certain sphere of influence whithin which it dominates. Without the Ukraine, that plan is done and impossible, the Ukraine is a key ingredient. Also, Russia wants to keep the harbour at Sewastopol, the fleet, access ot the Black Sea, and it wants the Crimean for tradition and historical sentiments. However - the latter are maybe not even the most important.

What has Putin done so far? - He secured parliamentary legitimation to send his military to the Ukrainian territory - ALL of it, not just the Crimean. However, Russian military in disguise already is all over the place called Crimean since two days, and it behaved with hug self-restraint, and anything but trying to raise trouble. German correspondents this evening reported that they maintain good relations with Ukrainian colleagues inside besieged barracks. Also, Russian forces so far make no attempt to leave the Crimean and spill into other Eastern provinces, not to mention all the Ukraine. Maybe they weill be invited to do so in places where the Russians are present in big numbers, however.

What is it about then, at the present moment? - Increasing the number of options. The Ukraine now knows that Moscow CAN drop troops into any part of the Ukraine if it really wants. Which probbaly is the reason why Putin never will need to do it. The threat alone is sufficient, because it is no bluff, but real.

Why? - Because what Putin wants before anything else, is influence on forming innerpolitical and foreign political decisions of the Ukrainian government, to be able to make them not violate Russian interests and to lure them towards complying with Russian grand plan for a customs union and an eurasian union.

The name of the game is not war or occupation of all Eastern provinces - not by a huge margin. The name of the game is whip and candies, threat and blackmailing, intimidation, and luring.

If there comes a shooting conflict, then it will not be the Russians firing the first shots, I think.

As far as thge Crimean peninsula is concerned, I accept if that place leaves the Ukraine by desire of the people living there. If most of the people wants that, then its like that. Like Falkland shall not become Argentiain against the will of the islanders, or Gibraltar becomign Spanish, like Scotland may be independent if that is what the Scots vote for, and so on. If people do not want Kiew'S governing, then Kiew has no claim to make. I would even accept the Bask country becoming independent, if that would not have been fought for by terrorism and by a minority only - with the majority of Basks being against it. If a majority of Basks wants to leave Spain, then Madrid has no claim to make. Seeing it differently, would mean the violation of the region's majorityill, and would been a tyranic oppression. Regions have all natural right there is to secede, if that is what they want.

If Ukraine plays this one cool and does not listen to Tymoichenko and Klitschko, there will be no war at all, and there is a good chance that the Crim ean sooner or later returns to the former status again. The russians have taken it for now, as a matter of fact, yes. But whether they intend to keep it by military terms alone, is something very different.

Jimbuna

03-01-14, 03:29 PM

You might want to check out the list of combatants for Vietnam before saying that.

I had a feeling you'd come in on that :)

TarJak

03-01-14, 03:37 PM

I had a feeling you'd come in on that :)The farce is strong with you padwan.

Putin's going to do what ever he wants. Obama and the EU will bleat and Ukrainian sovereignty will not mean a thing.

Jimbuna

03-01-14, 03:41 PM

The farce is strong with you padwan.

Putin's going to do what ever he wants. Obama and the EU will bleat and Ukrainian sovereignty will not mean a thing.

I think that is starting to become abundantly clear to everyone now :yep:

mapuc

03-01-14, 04:00 PM

This is what a Swedish Journalist wrote in a comment to the ongoing crisis in Ukraine

"President Putin's path towards an invasion of Ukraine is open.

The world will be fierce and unanimous in their condemnation.

But no one will intervene to stop Russia. Putin has again become one of the big boys in the playground that nobody dares to pick a fight with"

Markus

Oberon

03-01-14, 05:01 PM

Famed for the conference between Churchill, Roosevelt and Stalin...I suspected as much :up:

Indeed, as seen in this famous picture:

http://www.topgearbox.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/topgear-ukraine21.jpg

Jimbuna

03-01-14, 05:14 PM

Crikey!!.....the memories :)

Mr Quatro

03-01-14, 05:32 PM

You might want to check out the list of combatants for Vietnam before saying that.

I was thinking more about the start of the war not the finishing part.

More along the more modern lines of President Bush getting international support to attack Iraq and Afghanistan before we even went in.

War drums beating means President Obama is doing just that while President for life Putin is playing chess moving troops around and harassing the poor Ukrainian coast guard.

How many hours would the war last with just one super power against one poor nation like the Ukraine that can't even pay it's heating bills?

Skybird

03-01-14, 05:36 PM

This German comment imo summarizes the essence quite correctly.

http://www.welt.de/eilmeldung/article125329711/Die-Chaostheorie-der-russischen-Aussenpolitik.html

Putin's plan is straight from the KGB operation's handbook, and the west is no match for him because the West wants to play from a basis of weakness and makes weakness his motto (calling it by many well-sounding words, which all just cover that there is a determination to be weak). Putin utilizes this weakness for maximum own profit. Also, there is a monumental failure of Western intelligence services, because obviously they did not rang ther alarm bell over an operation which had its choreography developed and first act staged already months in advance.

Eine an das 19. Jahrhundert erinnernde Konfliktbereitschaft schlägt postmoderne Zögerlichkeit.

A willingness for conflict that reminds of the 19th century, defeats postmodern hesitation.

Catfish

03-01-14, 05:50 PM

Skybird

03-01-14, 06:10 PM

Hehe, brilliant:

" ... Was sich derzeit dort abspielt, war offensichtlich lange vorbereitet, und es folgt einer klaren Choreografie. Man fragt sich, warum der Westen eigentlich all das Geld für Geheimdienste ausgibt, wenn die dann weder Wind von solchen Planungen bekommen haben noch vorbereitet sind, auf sie zu reagieren. ... "

:haha:
It certainly asks questions about the NSA's and GCHQ' priorities. :D That Russian administration has increasingly used type-writers again and switched off office-PCs, seems to pay off. :sunny:

But hey, Merkel's cellphone comms and John Smith's monthly telephone sex statistic isn't too shabby a success either. Ordnung muß sein! :yeah:

Catfish

03-01-14, 06:53 PM

They are busy eavesdropping own their own people, seems they mistrust them more than Russia.

Well-funded fools. :down:

No i did not read this about Merkel's sex statistics and i do not want to know, noo (the pictures) :dead:

TarJak

03-01-14, 07:00 PM

I was thinking more about the start of the war not the finishing part.

More along the more modern lines of President Bush getting international support to attack Iraq and Afghanistan before we even went in.

War drums beating means President Obama is doing just that while President for life Putin is playing chess moving troops around and harassing the poor Ukrainian coast guard.

How many hours would the war last with just one super power against one poor nation like the Ukraine that can't even pay it's heating bills?
Well it depends on what you consider to be the start of the war in Vietnam. Some would put it at 1946, others, 1956 or '57 and most 'mericuns put it at 1961 when their boots on the ground commenced.

Between 1954, when the French left and 1961, it was mostly Vietnamese vs Vietnamese with virtually no official boots on the ground involvement from anyone else. Diem invited the US and SEATO members to get involved when he looked like losing his grip on the South in mid to late 1961.

I think Putin is doing a bit more than just moving pieces around as well. His military have had this scenario mapped out for some time and have been gearing up since the first noises were made about the EU.

kraznyi_oktjabr

03-01-14, 07:03 PM

... could have used the gas switch as a cudgel to beat the Ukraine into submission.According to Finnish newspaper Helsingin Sanomat that is not effective at the moment. This may ofcourse change overtime. Reasons are as follows:
1) Ukraine's gas consumption has dropped 40% over last 5 years
2) They have diversified their gas imports to Western Europe and cut imports from Russia
3) United States has dumped large amounts of coal into markets which have dropped gas price
4) Ukraine has gas in storage and as coldest period of winter is ending gas consumption should drop

More detailed explanation is available (in Finnish) here (http://www.hs.fi/ulkomaat/Ven%C3%A4j%C3%A4n+kaasuase+ei+toimi/a1393643791162).

Onkel Neal

03-01-14, 07:04 PM

What has Putin done so far? - He secured parliamentary legitimation to send his military to the Ukrainian territory - .

haha, for what that's worth in Russia:arrgh!:

mapuc

03-01-14, 07:28 PM

According to the Swedish newspaper(Expressen) USA have thrown the Russian Ambassador out of the U.S.

Is this true?

Markus

Skybird

03-01-14, 07:50 PM

haha, for what that's worth in Russia:arrgh!:
Yes, but it is about sending the Ukraine a message, and even more: Russian public opinion. It is not about how all this - or himself - is perceived in the West, not by Obama, not by the general public: he simply does not care for that, becasue these Wetsern players can do nothing. As the German article reminds us, this operation has began already before christmas, (and trying to hold Yanukovich in office already was fooling around with plan B, probably), with psychological preparation of the Russian public. This parliamentary legitimation now is just the next step of showing the public that it all is going morally and legitimately allright. It's much like the farce Bush once set up in the Senate and Congress over Iraq: it all was about securing "rally around the flag" and securing psychological willingness. Russians rally around Tsars.

You would be a lousy salesman, Neal. ;) :shucks: :O:

It does not matter what you and me think about it, because our standards to judge this do not matter for predicting the Russian'S acting. What matters is to see all this through Russia's eyes. Only then it makes sense. And a lot of sense, from their POV. Know thy enemy.

Skybird

03-01-14, 07:52 PM

According to the Swedish newspaper(Expressen) USA have thrown the Russian Ambassador out of the U.S.

Is this true?

Markus
German news said the Russian parliament demanded Putin to withdraw him. Maybe Washington learned about that and decided to score an easy - though meaningless - point by being earlier.

Dan D

03-01-14, 08:23 PM

What was the part in the middle again, Otto, you l'ill stinka?

Sailor Steve

03-02-14, 01:54 AM

According to the Swedish newspaper(Expressen) USA have thrown the Russian Ambassador out of the U.S.

Is this true?
The latest news I've seen is about the Russians recalling him, but nothing on the US throwing him out. On the other hand the American ambassador to Russia is coming home, apparently of his own volition.

Admiral Halsey

03-02-14, 02:34 AM

So it seems that Russia has for all intents and purposes has invaded the Crimea. TBH i'm surprised that it took 20+ years before they tried to take it back.

sailor_X

03-02-14, 02:54 AM

Actually there is no threat to russian citizens in Crimea, this crap has been made up to justify military invasion of russian troops in the region. And I think this is just a first step, there will probably be eastern Ukraine region next, then the whole teritory of Ukraine full of russian soldiers. Putin will repeat himself: "I'm protecting the russian citizens there too." This is just plain madness. I wonder if Putin would decide to protect russian citizens in US from who knows what and send his army to US ? If NATO and USA will not make necessary active decissions now, we may lose Ukraine from the world map again and get the returning stench of USSR.

Alex

03-02-14, 04:06 AM

If NATO and USA will not make necessary active decissions now, we may lose Ukraine from the world map again and get the returning stench of USSR.
ROFLMAO ! :har:

Personally, I can't figure out what the Ukrainian People really want, honestly.
The European Union is supposed to give them 600 million dollars. Russia is willing to give them 15 billion dollars. And according to ukrainian protesters on tv, a part of Ukraine is supposed to be willing to join the EU. :o

Man, that's some news : here we get to hear about the first people that might swim to Lampedusa in order to reach the tunisian coasts. :haha:

Skybird

03-02-14, 04:44 AM

sailor_X

there is a saying in German: "es wird nicht aslles so heiß gegessen, wie es gekocht wird" Means: "not everything gets eaten that hot as it was cooked".

There is the propaganda war raging, and all participate in it, obviously both Kiew and Moscow, but also the EU and Obama. All of them have interests they want to push through, and all of them know that they want to push them at the costs of the other. Obviously, the Russians hold the trump cards in this. And Obama and the the EU roar like damn mighty impressive paper tigers. But truth is: Washington and Europe are helpless (and clueless) about this crisis. Europe still wants to see Putin as a "partner" in all these years. Putin cleverly leaves them in this belief. Well, the Russians are not partners. They have not been since many years. That is just typical European self-deception.

When all this is over, the Crimean probably will formally still be part of the Ukraine, but with the status of a Russian special interest region, or protectorate, and Moscow will use this as a tool to influence Ukrainian inner politics and foreign politics and keep the EU at a distance (because EU statutes do not allow a country with unsolved territorial disputes and lacking territorial integrity to enter the EU, so as long as the Crimean is not fully under Kiew'S control, they cannot enter the EU (although it would by far not be the first time that Brussel violates its own rules and laws and betrays it'S own statutes). And as I argued some posts above, this influence on inner politics and preventing the Ukraine from falling to the EU is what the Russians probably are really after.

I cannot be certain on what the Russians will do regarding the other Eastern provinces - but Russian troops waging war and occupying all of the Ukraine'S territory? That one I rule out with over 90% certainty. It would push the engagement envelope a bit far and would deny Putin the claimed legitimation he now claims with regard to the Russian majority on the Crimean peninsula.

BTW, even before this crisis broke out in Decembre, the Russians had legally and covered by treaties a standing force of 13 thousand in Sewastopol and the surrounding territories. The unknown armed men three days ago where in parts militias - and in parts disguised special forces and/or marines from sewastopol.

If it is true what was reported yesterday, that 2000 to 8000 additional troops meanwhile had been shuttled into Sewastopol and the Crimean, it would bring the full Russian presence to a strength of around 15-23 thousand (yesterday).

The Ukrainian forces are in disarray and even Kiew admitted (Klitschko) that they currently are not capable to fight the Russians effectively. This is a result of the political turmoil and the exchange of key personnel at the top of the military.

For Europe, the Ukraine is just a big, bottomless black abyss (money-wise). We must not want the Ukraine in the EU at all. Not by a very huge margin. Only very high investments, unlimited. No returns and valuable contributions close to being something like a compensation. Just big losses. Very bad deal. Who pays the price? Ordinary people in the West, pensioners-to-be, tax-payers who get expropriated already due to low interests and cold progression, etc., businessm en, consumers - us all will pay the price.

As if we would not already have more problems than we could financially handle.

sailor_X

03-02-14, 05:03 AM

Alex

03-02-14, 05:15 AM

Living in EU in not a life in a cherry pie too, but we made that decision to be a part of it so we must continue to struggle through all the hard times together!
:o
*goes away*

Catfish

03-02-14, 05:16 AM

It is however 'unconventional' to see how the conservatives in Russia are communists - communists are the conservatives here.
Something unusual in the rest of the world, apart from China and North Corea.
But it explains how the russian education system has worked, in the decades until 2000 - all enemies or competitors of Russia are of course "Fascists".
They don't care about russian-speaking and ethnical russian protesters on the Maidan place, they do not exist officially.

And Putin certainly pulled a trick, he has the official task to send troops, the troops were there before, just without national markins (as if anyone had doubts where the military came from), and he officially "helps" and "defends". He has learned the western democratic vocabulary quite well, certainly only the words.

If he takes the Crimea back to Russia, isolated by the Ukraina from the russian motherland (it's not fatherland, in Russia), we have a situation like with Serbia, and Danzig back then. I guess then there will be war, sooner or later.

I just think Putin is too smart. He will not invade and annex the Crimea, the latter will most probably stay within the Ukraina, but with russian jurisdiction, hegemony and influence.

You know a peaceful protectorate, very PEACEFUL just like the British Empire did it with its protectorates back then, all over the world :O:

sailor_X

03-02-14, 05:37 AM

The main thing is the illusion of all the western countries is that one day Russia would re-born to be trully democratic country. However it will not happen any time soon (if anytime at all). People of Russia are used to live in a harsh conditions of totalitarism power for ages. It's in every russian roots to have somebody with more or less despotism way of thinking in the head of the government. In other words citizens of russia need to know that they are in control of a master supervisor or so. The one who would tell them how to live, how to act, what to speak and what not to speak and so on. And when you try to bring a flavour of democracy in such society, they find themselves lost in a jungle, not knowing how to treat that freedom they might get. For society that live in a democracy for hundred years is a self explanatory what it is, but post-totalitaric countries have to learn about benefits of it.. Funny and sad in the same moment..

Skybird

03-02-14, 05:38 AM

You both are wrong. Now the matter will Ukraine be the part of EU or not is not that important. Now it is important to save Ukraines sovereignty and to prevent further Russias aggression in the region. Just sitting like that and doing nothing might soon turn around against EU and Nato itself. History is the teacher, in 1938 Chekoslovakia was a victim in order to asure peace in Europe, in 2008 world watched how South Osetia was riped apart from Georgia.
That can be disputed. In that conflict,m it was the Georgian leader who started the shooting and did all the lying and even wanted to raise the war so to get NATO into a hot shooting war against the Russians. it were the Georgians who started shelling civilian appartment blocks and killing hundreds of residents with missile artillery - and blamed it on the Russians. To me, Shaakashvili is a case for the Den hague tribunal. That in the following months and years all Western capitals moved away form hiom and let him standing in the rain, should tell you something, after the very opposite statements they made in the beginning.

Now Ukraine is on the edge of it's destiny. So what gives ? Let Putin do what he wants and the western countries will pretend that nothing is happening as ussual ? This way of thinking is not one of my type. There were cowards in every generations but it's nothing more than a shame to hide in a bushes believing everything will be ok somehow. Yeah I wish as well, all this was that simple. It is not so much about what should be done, but what COULD be done. Face it, the Western powers are not in a position to unleash a big war against Russia over this (also, there is no return to justify the costs in resources and lives of Western soldiers, just to fight for your sovereignity does nothing for us). You can call for this option, but it will not happen. It's no option that is on the table.

Interesting it only could become if the Muslim Tartarians call for help to their Muslim brothren in Turkey. And Turkey is no reliable NATO partner anymore anyway. But with the big troubles Erdoghan is in, I doubt that Turkey is in a position to really start a war against the Russians all by itself. I doubt that NATO would follow the Turks, because the Turks are not under attack by Russia, but then would have started an aggressive war themseklves, which is no defence case popstulated by NATO statutes. And cna the Turks all by themselves stand up to the Russians? I don't know. But it would be a big war for them, not just some border chatting with the Syrian air force. Naval clashes in the Black Sea. Air force duels over the ocean. Turkish infantry landing on the Crimean. Ahem - forget all that. Will not happen.

I do not envy your country for the situation it is in (since long). But my best advise is: be pragmatic and realise the realities you have to live with. They are like they are, whether you like them or not. If you start a shooting war against he russians, you will lose everything.

You will need to make a deal with the Russians. Or you fight a war now, and lose everything. Or you resist by terror and militia-style strikes, which will again have you suffering the destruction of your country, like in Chechnya.

Living in EU in not a life in a cherry pie too, but we made that decision to be a partThat is not only your decision, but the EU's as well. ;) Just becasue you want to get in does not mean we must let you in. ;) Also, "when you say "us" you ver yobviously speak for one part of the population only, with another oart obviously not agreeing with you - and not just the Russians living in Sewastopol. You have the right to ask for EU membership, and we have the right to weigh it and ask what you have to offer in return, and we then decide yes or no. In an ideal world. In reality, the apparatschicks will honour their ideologic illusions and act in accordance with them and their perosnal power and career interests. The result is Greece in the Euro and Romanianand Bulgaria in the EU and a messed up Balkan also illustrating Europe'S illusions - all of these example are not really illustrating the wisdom of the EU's ignorance of basic reasonability.

Do not think I am cold-hearted or have no sympathies or antipathies for or against any side. I have, but I leave that sentimental stuff out of all this as best as I can, because my sentiments mean nothing here and will not do anyone any good service. I see this as realistic as I can. That is the best I can do for you in this conversation. I do not even express you my best wishes or hopes for a better future, because that again already would mean nothing for anyone and would not chnage the facts on the ground one bit.

As the former American ambassador to Germany, Jack Kornblum, recently said on German TV, in a very different context about stressed German-American relations: "States have no friendships. States have interests."

Take care you do not get killed for nothing more than just hot air and empty word shells. ;)

Skybird

03-02-14, 05:42 AM

The main thing is the illusion of all the western countries is that one day Russia would re-born to be trully democratic country.
On that I agree in full. The German article I linked yesterday identified that weakness in all clearity.

People of Russia are used to live in a harsh conditions of totalitarism power for ages. It's in every russian roots to have somebody with more or less despotism way of thinking in the head of the government.
Has it been that different in the Ukraine? Your people broght Tymochenko into office once, although she belongs to the sharks you complain abiout. Now released from jail, she imemdioately claims poower aghain and the first thing she shouted to the Ukrainian people was that "she would protect them all". She may be met with more hesitation today than years ago, but still she could become the next president again. And as I see it, she was no solution but part of the problems your country has.

Also, many Ukrainians disagree with the EU orientaiton of you and the people thinking like you. You maybe are the biggest faction currently, opinionwise, but there are also the ultranationalists, and obviosuly the not too small group of those who want association with Russia. Amngonst them are Ukrainians as well, they are not just all Russians.

Jimbuna

03-02-14, 05:43 AM

The Kremlin has published part of Russian President Vladimir Putin's conversation with Obama on Saturday. It says Mr Putin stressed that in case of any further spread of violence to Eastern Ukraine and Crimea, Russia retains the right to protect its interests and the Russian-speaking population of those areas.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26405082

So there you have it....Putin wins this round of the poker game.

Meanwhile down at the ranch, Nato is to hold an emergency meeting at 12:00 GMT to discuss the escalating conflict in Crimea.

sailor_X

03-02-14, 05:52 AM

Skybird I would like to see your stance of head in the sand if Putin would try to "save" russian citizens from whatever he might come up with in Germany or in any other nation nearby after success in Ukraine. Would you flee to some peacefull area on the other cost of the ocean or would you take the gun in your hands and would fight for justice ?

sailor_X

03-02-14, 05:58 AM

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26405082

So there you have it....Putin wins this round of the poker game.

Meanwhile down at the ranch, Nato is to hold an emergency meeting at 12:00 GMT to discuss the escalating conflict in Crimea.

While Nato discussing on how to act, Putin does his dirty job.

Let Putin grab Ukraine and he will stop somewhere at Lisabona perhaps. Putin is just a blood thirsty prick wishing to reestablish power of USSR, it's odd that it takes so much time for western countries to realize that..

Skybird

03-02-14, 06:07 AM

Ukraine navy'S flagship, the "Hetman Sahajdatschny", reported to be a frigate, has refused orders from Kiew and has switched sides. German news.

Yesterday a German correspoindet on TV reported that she spoke with Russian special commandos who "besieged" Ukrainian military barracks in the surroundings of Sewastopol, and who said that they still maintain friendly ties and relations with the Ukrainian border guards.

It seems, not really all Ukrainian forces are willing to resist the Russians. Like not all Ukrainians of non-Russian ethnicity really want the EU. A majority of them probably do, but not all.

sailor_X,

that scenerio you ask me for is as likely as Germany invading Russia once again. You probably do not know me well by my postings in this forum, else you would know that I am no man feeling very nationalistic. In case of war, many factors would decide whether I volunteer for fighting (if that makes sense, I am untrained, ill, and 47). But political paroles you can be certain would not be what I fight for, nor would I stand up for just some symbolism or rhetoric stuff. I would probably try to get those I love out of harms way, in the ways possible in that scenario.

But I cannot give you a blueprint answer to your question, too much details on too many individual variables are needed. The specific situation must be known. And even then, if you gave me the needed specifications (since I only travelled a fresh battlefield long time ago, but never was in an extreme situation like being in war and under fire in a battle): even then I could only answer you what I now would hope that I would do. What I would really do when actually being in that situation, I do not know. Some may boast and say how right and heroic they might act. And when being in that situation they fail and turn into opportunists or cowards. Others may answer silent and shy, and when being in that situation for real getting surprised by their own courage and heroic acting. You never know what stuff people are made off until they are in the mess, face in the dirt.

You cannot answer such questions for sure as long as you have not been in the situation. Just one thing is certain: I'm not the type of guy waving flags, no matter which one, nor do I see sense in risking lives and resources to save a flag or would care for running behind a flag's lead. Some people easily fall for national sentiments and symbolic acts. I do not.

sailor_X

03-02-14, 06:25 AM

Right ok, I got a picture of you, you're from the type of persons who enjoys hard working with tongue or fingers at keyboard in every opportunity they get. Taking actions is not your strong point I assume :) I'm 31 and I do not like to waste time on long and misserable debates. Take care :)

Rhodes

03-02-14, 06:37 AM

Let Putin grab Ukraine and he will stop somewhere at Lisabona perhaps.
:har::har::har:

Naaaa, we are so ungovernable that even him would not dare to want us! And I am speaking for knowledge cause and from history!

Sorry for the off topic reply!

Skybird

03-02-14, 06:41 AM

Honestly said, I now despise hard work in general. After trying it for some years, I found it to be quite exhausting.

Oberon

03-02-14, 10:10 AM

Meanwhile in America:

https://24.media.tumblr.com/90c89980510c84634ef509adf5de3a0e/tumblr_n1sjpnqwic1r6s5zro1_250.gif

https://24.media.tumblr.com/ea0deff2a634c1f5503d88d4af298ba1/tumblr_n1sjpnqwic1r6s5zro2_250.gif

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5-6HX62ZoPc

:har::har::har:

sailor_X

03-02-14, 10:29 AM

Oberon why won't you laugh at Churchil's decision not to fight Soviets when Poland was invaded on 1939 september the 17 th ?

Betonov

03-02-14, 10:31 AM

I love his plan.

Really, I have no intentions of having my coffee break interupted, let alone dying due to a war between 2 countries I don't care about over a country I don't care about.

Oberon

03-02-14, 10:32 AM

And since this a naval forum, here's some pics of Russian ships coming to Sevastopol:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bhue5noIIAAm_hk.jpg
The minesweeper 'Turbinist'

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bhuv0bpIMAAbrNJ.jpg
Vishnya class intel ship, the 'Priazoye'

Apparently six vessels have arrived in two hours.

https://twitter.com/ForeignCorresp - tweets here.

sailor_X

03-02-14, 10:35 AM

I love his plan.

Really, I have no intentions of having my coffee break interupted, let alone dying due to a war between 2 countries I don't care about over a country I don't care about.

I assume you do not care about anything that is outside your backyard fence.. However this is the main reason why your nation lives in a such ****hole afterall.

Oberon

03-02-14, 10:35 AM

Oberon why won't you laugh at Churchil's decision not to fight Soviets when Poland was invaded on 1939 september the 17 th ?

I don't see how that's relevant to this thread. :hmmm:

Admiral Halsey

03-02-14, 10:38 AM

Honestly if you think about it this is Russia just trying to regain lost territory. After all it wasn't until the fall of the Soviet Union that Ukraine was ever a free country. It'd be like the US trying to recapture California after some event caused her to become her own country for about 20 years.

sailor_X

03-02-14, 10:43 AM

I don't see how that's relevant to this thread. :hmmm:

It's all about how you see things, and most important question of all times: will the leading nations of the world will do anything to stop madness or would they watch passively how bigger nation destroys the smaller ones eating popcorns while watching TV.

Admiral Halsey

03-02-14, 10:46 AM

It's all about how you see things, and most important question of all times: will the leading nations of the world will do anything to stop madness or would they watch passively how bigger nation destroys the smaller ones eating popcorns while watching TV.

There was a reason they didn't attack the Soviets back then and that reasons name is Hitler. This quote from Churchill sums up his feelings towards Hitler and the Soviets quite well If Hitler invaded hell I would make at least a favourable reference to the devil in the House of Commons.

Betonov

03-02-14, 10:47 AM

I assume you do not care about anything that is outside your backyard fence.. However this is the main reason why your nation lives in a such ****hole afterall.

You're adorable.
Shame Tribes is in the brig. I really miss his finesse of dealing with people that believe war is something to look forward too.

Skybird

03-02-14, 10:52 AM

Oberon why won't you laugh at Churchil's decision not to fight Soviets when Poland was invaded on 1939 september the 17 th ?

With original outside-the-box thinking like that you are a promising candidate to finally bring peace to the middle east, sailor_X. :yeah:

A recent opinion piece in a German newspaper points out that what Putin now does, has a precedence in the American invasion of Panama 1989, which America claimed to be on behalf of protecting US citizens there. The strategic importance of the channel had nothing to do with it. :D Formal goal of the operation was to guarantee the freedom of US troops in Panama from criminal prosecution, and the freedom to move at will. To enforce according treaties, Noriega had to be caught and kicked out of office.

Or 1983, when the US claimed to act on behalf of securing its national civilians when it invaded Grenada.

And in 1989 or 1990, US foreign minister Baker indirectly encouraged the Soviet Union to send military forces to Romania, to help pacifying the turmoil there was, and to stabilize the situation.

So, great powers are not shy to fall back to the argument of protecting their nationals or their vital interests in order to justify intervention in foreign sovereign countries. Putin is not the first doing it, he is just the latest in the line.

And something different:

http://media0.faz.net/ppmedia/aktuell/2963460927/1.2828034/default/infografik-karte-russisch-in-der-ukraine.jpg

This is from another article in a German newspaper. It shows in what regions how many people speak Russian as their native language. It is interesting to see that the split that seems to materialise in the Ukraine today more or less runs along the predicted frontline between two civilizational spheres as have been predicted by Samuel Huntington for the civilizational clashes of the forseeable future. The constellation in the Ukraine that is so unstable is due to a long history of wanted distortions that Stalin imposed, and conflicts even earlier than that. Traditionally, the West has always felt more towards Europe, and the East more towards Russia. And as I often have said before: Russia is neither Europe, nor Asia: Russia is Russia, a sphere of its own. Once again, Huntington was right. His message was not welcomed, and still is not wanted by many. But that ,means nothing more than that many people do not want to prepare for the consequence of bad news they hear.

That's why the West is weak and indifferent today. Wishful thinking about nice times to come all by themselves, prevented realism. And so, there we are. (And if it wouldn'T be Putin, than it would be some other Russian leader today. The doctrine that Russia has formulated, to intervene in foreign countries to protect its citizens, is not for no reason not called Putin-doctrine, but Medwedeew-doctrine .)

Oberon

03-02-14, 10:53 AM

I don't know if I'd go as far as saying that, to be honest, you've got the Kievan Rus, Lithuania, the 1917-21 war of Independence, and eventually the Budapest Memorandum in which Russia acknowledged Ukrainian independence.
So if it's anything it's more like Mexico suddenly deciding that Texas is a part of Mexico again, or the UK deciding to retake the USA.

Oberon

03-02-14, 10:55 AM

Skybird

03-02-14, 11:05 AM

I assume you do not care about anything that is outside your backyard fence.. However this is the main reason why your nation lives in a such ****hole afterall.

I bet that many here understand your emotions spiking high currently, if you indeed are Ukrainian. However, this forum has rules that are valid for you as well. Calling names and doing personal attacks like this will bring you into conflict with a moderator sooner than you maybe think possible.

Most uf us understand the emotional energy this all may mean for people in your country. But do not use forum members as lightning rods.

Betonov

03-02-14, 11:05 AM

And what exactly would you have the leading nations of the world do? Hmmm? :hmmm:

I'd have them sit down, let Putin take the Russian majority part of Ukraine but give Kiev billions to invest in their country. A Crimean purchase.

Unfortunately all that money would go youknowwhere.
Not to modernize the railroads that's for sure. But it beats going to war

sailor_X

03-02-14, 11:06 AM

And what exactly would you have the leading nations of the world do? Hmmm? :hmmm:

I will express myself once again if this wasn;t clear till now. Fight the wrong ones. Of course if you capable to understand who is the wrong ones. Perhaps you think that Ukraine is the same as Russia ? You're making a huge mistake if you think so.

sailor_X

03-02-14, 11:11 AM

I bet that many here understand your emotions spiking high currently, if you indeed are Ukrainian. However, this forum has rules that are valid for you as well. Calling names and doing personal attacks like this will bring you into conflict with a moderator sooner than you maybe think possible.

Most uf us understand the emotional energy this all may mean for people in your country. But do not use forum members as lightning rods.

In the first place, let me ask you what makes you think I'm Ukrainian ? In the second place what difference does it take ? You already expressed your not to chalenge Russia's opinion earlier, why would you want to repeat yourself again ?

Oberon

03-02-14, 11:14 AM

I will express myself once again if this wasn;t clear till now. Fight the wrong ones. Of course if you capable to understand who is the wrong ones. Perhaps you think that Ukraine is the same as Russia ? You're making a huge mistake if you think so.

So...fight Russia, eh? Fight a country which is quite capable of wiping us all off the map, fight a country with a military we can't even afford, whilst still stuck in Afghanistan.

Any other grand strategic ideas? Invading China perhaps? :hmmm:

I'd have them sit down, let Putin take the Russian majority part of Ukraine but give Kiev billions to invest in their country. A Crimean purchase.

Unfortunately all that money would go youknowwhere.
Not to modernize the railroads that's for sure. But it beats going to war

That's a bit more reasonable, but unfortunately I'm not sure that Kiev would let us sign over the Russian majority, even with the option to give Kiev billions...which we don't actually have.

No, what's likely going to happen is that Putin will do his business, and we'll slap him with every economic sanction we can think of for a few months and then lift them when we remember that most of Western Europe keeps their lights on through Russian gas, especially Germany, and then we'll quietly drop the sanctions and carry on as normal, attaching the Ukraine to the German financial teat and desperately trying to keep what's left of their economy afloat.

Basically, no matter who wins in this, the Ukraine is going to lose. :nope:

Skybird

03-02-14, 11:15 AM

The "wrong" ones? I suppose you mean the evil ones? In other words, you mean Russia.

Well.

That means full scale war against Russia.

No thanks, why should we want to do that. Because else Russian tank armies storm into the Fulda gap?

And how would you compensate us for the effort? Tens of thousands killed, cities devastated, a chance for nuclear war maybe, and money in the trillions being wasted...!?

Skybird

03-02-14, 11:17 AM

In the first place, let me ask you what makes you think I'm Ukrainian ?

Because somewhere you referred to yourself and your people in a way that implied that. Must I look up the sentence again? And I mean "Ukrainian" not ethnically (=not Russian), but on basis of your passport nationality.

In the second place what difference does it take ? You already expressed your not to chalenge Russia's opinion earlier, why would you want to repeat yourself again ?
Pardon...?

sailor_X

03-02-14, 11:21 AM

Onkel Neal

03-02-14, 11:22 AM

Ahem, please refrain from name calling. Get your rifle and go fight the Russians if you want but adhere to the rules of the forum.

Oberon

03-02-14, 11:24 AM

This discussion is closed from the side of mine. I'm not willing to cool my mouth with cowards that are affraid of war with Russia to stand for justice. IMO you are nothing more than pathetic, blinded not to see forward, outdated, pacifistic morons. End of disscussion.

Well, good luck in the Ukraine anyway, I presume, since you are so righteous that you've already booked tickets to Kiev to volunteer to fight against the Russians?

No?

Admiral Halsey

03-02-14, 11:25 AM

"US announces deployment of troops and naval task force to Crimea"

Here we go.....

Oh boy. This isn't going to end well at all. I just hope if war does break out it's more Red Storm Rising then Threads.

Skybird

03-02-14, 11:28 AM

Basically, no matter who wins in this, the Ukraine is going to lose. :nope:
I am afraid that'S what it comes down to. The Ukraine is best advised to bite the bitter apple and be pragmatic. If you play not with a little kitty but a big tiger, you are best advised not to pinch its tail. The Russian are stronger than the Ukraine. They want the Ukraine for their union project, and the last thing they want is NATO ships in ports on the Crimean. That are the realities, and there is no way to twist or to bend them. That is not fair, nor is it kind. But it is what the Ukraine has to get along with for now. The alternative is that Ukrainian forces try to fight the Russians and drive them out. At best they fail and the Russians leave it to that - at best. At worst, all of Ukraine gets destroyed, the remains occupied.

They should have kept their nuclear weapons. And maybe all the world is lucky that they did not.

Oberon

03-02-14, 11:28 AM

Oh boy. This isn't going to end well at all. I just hope if war does break out it's more Red Storm Rising then Threads.

I'd...err...like to see where the news of that deployment is from, because there's nothing in the big agencies, and I really don't see the US deploying to Crimea. Poland maybe, but not Crimea. :hmmm:

Betonov

03-02-14, 11:28 AM

even with the option to give Kiev billions...which we don't actually have.

We don't, but Putin does :03:

The problem with economic sanctions against Russia is that Slovenia, as a NATO member, will have to respect them and there goes billions of annual revenue and investments.
A Slovene company (RIKO) is hired to upkeep Putins personal properties and a part of Kremlin. A Russian order kept Seaway from sinking even further 2 years ago and is a reason I got re-hired. Russian tourists are among the most welcome here, while they have demanding taste they leave disqusting piles of money behind (serving at a Russian wedding in Bled left my friend with €500 in tips in one night)

There's a certain bond between the two nations that would keep us out of any hostile actions actions by the Russians if we ignore Brussels, but our ''leaders'' believe that a suicidal war under the NATO flag is more important than keeping taxpayers alive

volodya61

03-02-14, 11:29 AM

I believe that I have to say it because I consider myself a part of this community..

I'm sorry and I'm ashamed that we have allowed Putin to do it..
I'm sorry and I'm ashamed that we didn't stop Putin 10-12 years ago..
I'm sorry and I'm ashamed that we can't stop him now..
But I'm not ashamed that I'm Russian and citizen of Russia.. and many of us are now in prisons for political pretexts when we are trying to stop this madness..

Onkel Neal

03-02-14, 11:29 AM

At Oberon, that came from me, Haha, I ninja edited my post. :88)

Oberon

03-02-14, 11:33 AM

I am afraid that'S what it comes down to. The Ukraine is best advised to bite the bitter apple and be pragmatic. If you play not with a little kitty but a big tiger, you are best advised not to pinch its tail. The Russian are stronger than the Ukraine. They want the Ukraine for their union project, and the last thing they want is NATO ships in ports on the Crimean. That are the realities, and there is no way to twist or to bend them. That is not fair, nor is it kind. But it is what the Ukraine has to get along with for now. The alternative is that Ukrainian forces try to fight the Russians and drive them out. At best they fail and the Russians leave it to that - at best. At worst, all of Ukraine gets destroyed, the remains occupied.

They should have kept their nuclear weapons. And maybe all the world is lucky that they did not.

Sadly, I agree, and it is extremely frustrating and saddening to see a nation be beaten into submission by a larger one, but as you have said, it's not as if Russia is the only one who has used flimsy excuses to smash up a nation before. It's the average Ukrainian citizen I feel sorry for, not those who were in Maiden, but those who have tried to just get by whilst the government has changed above them, their economy is trashed and their nation is going to get torn in two and all they want to do is just get their food, and have a roof over their head when they go to sleep at night without having to worry about being brutally killed.
Morally Sailor X is right, however the gun has long since trumped morals, and we just don't have the resources to challenge Putins actions, not the EU anyway, the US might...but I think that any American government who tried would find itself impeached or overthrown, the American people do not want another war, especially one with a nuclear armed nation.

C'est la guerre, alas.

Onkel Neal

03-02-14, 11:33 AM

sailor_X

03-02-14, 11:34 AM

Ahem, please refrain from name calling. Get your rifle and go fight the Russians if you want but adhere to the rules of the forum.

Believe me I will, Ukraine is not my nation afterall, but I will fight russians for the justice I believe in. If I die in the fight, let it be, but my life will be gone for something that is important to me. I'm a memeber of the baltic nation and I'm proud of it. So if the call of duty will receive my mail box I will be there no matter what to stand for Ukrainian people, because I know that we might be next in this game of chess.

Admiral Halsey

03-02-14, 11:36 AM

Morally Sailor X is right, however the gun has long since trumped morals, and we just don't have the resources to challenge Putins actions, not the EU anyway, the US might...but I think that any American government who tried would find itself impeached or overthrown, the American people do not want another war, especially one with a nuclear armed nation

We try to attack a nuclear armed nation that's capable of hitting the US and i'm grabbing every gun i've got and storming the White House myself.

03-02-14, 11:36 AM

Oh boy. This isn't going to end well at all. I just hope if war does break out it's more Red Storm Rising then Threads.

Have a beer...
Everyone is just taking sides and jabbering because have to.... , for the good measures.
Nobody will go crazy about ukraine.

Oberon

03-02-14, 11:38 AM

At Oberon, that came from me, Haha, I ninja edited my post. :88)

I saw the ninja edit, but is American news saying something like that or did you meant to type Russian troops? You're going to give some people a heart attack. :haha:

I believe that I have to say it because I consider myself a part of this community..

I'm sorry and I'm ashamed that we have allowed Putin to do it..
I'm sorry and I'm ashamed that we didn't stop Putin 10-12 years ago..
I'm sorry and I'm ashamed that we can't stop him now..
But I'm not ashamed that I'm Russian and citizen of Russia.. and many of us are now in prisons for political pretexts when we are trying to stop this madness..

Well said, very well said. There's been 100 people arrested in Russia today in protests against Russian action in the Ukraine, in Moscow and St Petersburg. Unfortunately, and not just in Russia, quite often the average person holds very little control over their government, so many of us didn't want the war in Iraq, and yet it went ahead anyway. The difference is that many of us didn't end in prison for our political viewpoints, and that is where Russia is really sliding, and that worries me.
Good luck anyway. :salute:

Skybird

03-02-14, 11:42 AM

Sadly, I agree, and it is extremely frustrating and saddening to see a nation be beaten into submission by a larger one, but as you have said, it's not as if Russia is the only one who has used flimsy excuses to smash up a nation before. It's the average Ukrainian citizen I feel sorry for, not those who were in Maiden, but those who have tried to just get by whilst the government has changed above them, their economy is trashed and their nation is going to get torn in two and all they want to do is just get their food, and have a roof over their head when they go to sleep at night without having to worry about being brutally killed.
Morally Sailor X is right, however the gun has long since trumped morals, and we just don't have the resources to challenge Putins actions, not the EU anyway, the US might...but I think that any American government who tried would find itself impeached or overthrown, the American people do not want another war, especially one with a nuclear armed nation.

C'est la guerre, alas.
Yep.

What we can and must do is finally stopping our infantile illusions about peacefully melting the world together, multiculti and all that, but to honour grim realities and understand that Russia is our political partner - NOT. It'S interests in parts are completely opposing ours. But we act as if we share interests and values. And now there we stand, with dropped pants, bare-bottomed, thumb in mouth, snapped.

They honour their business contracts, however. Even during the Cuba crisis, they fulfilled their obligations in deliveries to Europe.

Oberon

03-02-14, 11:47 AM

This is why everyone wants to join NATO, to keep the Russians out.

Sadly, there's a lot of geo-political stress in Eastern Europe because of the flocking of Eastern European states to NATO. It's a bit like when Cuba went Communist, the US saw that as a clear threat to its national safety, just as Russia views NATO as a threat to its national safety, especially when the Star Wars system was going to be planted in Poland.

sailor_X

03-02-14, 11:56 AM

antikristuseke

03-02-14, 11:57 AM

Oberon

03-02-14, 12:07 PM

US in not obliged to fight Russia. I'm ashamed that Europe itself can do little to fight against Russias aggresion. There should be no US cassualties in this war for justice, perhaps if we trully unite we might succeed, but we must try, we just can't let to happen what's about to happen. If Ukraine falls it means every nation in Europe could fall.

:hmmm:

If Napoleon Bonaparte and Adolf Hitler could conquer most of Europe and yet fail to subdue Russia, what on Earth makes you think that we could do any better? :hmmm:

antikristuseke

03-02-14, 12:08 PM

The idea isn't to conquer russia, now is it?

kraznyi_oktjabr

03-02-14, 12:11 PM

This entire situation has me worried since I live in a country on Russias western boarder. Russian territorial aggression might end up with me actually having to fight a war, an Idea I am not too keen on.Me too. Russia has already practiced sabre rattling towards Finland over last couple of years. Subject has been their "citizens' rights" (sound familiar?) and how we should handle child protection cases etc. :nope:

sailor_X

03-02-14, 12:12 PM

:hmmm:

If Napoleon Bonaparte and Adolf Hitler could conquer most of Europe and yet fail to subdue Russia, what on Earth makes you think that we could do any better? :hmmm:

France or Germany alone could, not back in the past, but the power is in unity we could succeed without a fair, but Europe has to be united for this goal to reach.

Oberon

03-02-14, 12:17 PM

The idea isn't to conquer russia, now is it?

True, but would there really be any other way to stop them? You could kick Russia out of the Ukraine, but they'd just regroup, reinforce and come back again. There's a reason that most Cold War plans had nuclear weapons at Step 2, right after Step 1 which was 'fall back as masses of T-72s push through the front lines.'

I wouldn't worry too much about Russian aggression towards the Baltics though, IIRC all the Baltic nations are NATO, and whilst the EU on its own can't do jack, you throw America and Canada into the mix, as well as Turkey, and I don't think Russia would push it that far. Although they'd love to, they'd love to get the Baltic states back, but I don't think they'd risk war with NATO. Not even the Soviet Union did that, and they had more resources than Putin does.

I know it sounds contradictory, saying that NATO nations won't fight Russia over the Ukraine but they would over the Baltics, but politics is contradictory...although I must admit, I can't say for certain that some NATO nations would have the stomach for a war with Russia even over the Baltics.
The problem is, we don't have the money or weapons, and all our gear is orientated towards desert warfare after a decade trudging around in the Middle East, we're no longer equipped to fight the Cold War against the Soviet Union, short of going straight to the nukes which we do still possess.

Jimbuna

03-02-14, 12:22 PM

Believe me I will, Ukraine is not my nation afterall, but I will fight russians for the justice I believe in. If I die in the fight, let it be, but my life will be gone for something that is important to me. I'm a memeber of the baltic nation and I'm proud of it. So if the call of duty will receive my mail box I will be there no matter what to stand for Ukrainian people, because I know that we might be next in this game of chess.

What is the stance of your country regarding events in the Ukraine?

Your from Lithuania (Kaunas) yes?

Further to the topic....The newly appointed head of the Ukrainian Navy swears allegiance to Crimea in presence of its unrecognised prime minister.

Schroeder

03-02-14, 12:25 PM

France or Germany alone could, not back in the past, but the power is in unity we could succeed without a fair, but Europe has to be united for this goal to reach.
You are aware that Europe's forces have been downsized dramatically over the last two decades? Germany is pretty much at it's Limit with just a few thousand troops in Afghanistan and Kosovo. We will get some 200something new Puma IFV to replace the 2000something Marders that we once had (yes, our mechanized infantry will have 10% of it's cold war strength then...the tank hunters with their Jaguars have been disbanded altogether), the Netherlands have disbanded their tank units and cut their air force by 30% and don't even start with the British military which has been butchered. Forget Europe, we thought the cold war is over and everyone will live happily ever after.:dead:

Jimbuna

03-02-14, 12:28 PM

At Oberon, that came from me, Haha, I ninja edited my post. :88)

On Skype with Steve and Betonov and I am sending you the physicians bill for the cracked ribs :har:

sailor_X

03-02-14, 12:32 PM

What is the stance of your country regarding events in the Ukraine?

Your from Lithuania (Kaunas) yes?

Further to the topic....The newly appointed head of the Ukrainian Navy swears allegiance to Crimea in presence of its unrecognised prime minister.

Correct, but for now my mind is focused on the events in Ukraine. I just can't to tell my self that I don't care, I care a lot about upcoming events in Ukraine.

sailor_X

03-02-14, 12:39 PM

Onkel Neal

03-02-14, 12:47 PM

US in not obliged to fight Russia. I'm ashamed that Europe itself can do little to fight against Russias aggresion. There should be no US cassualties in this war for justice, perhaps if we trully unite we might succeed, but we must try, we just can't let to happen what's about to happen. If Ukraine falls it means every nation in Europe could fall.

Look, I'm all for nuclear war against Russia as much As the next guy, but i doubt it will happen, would disrupt the US food stamp program. What we can and should do, US and Europe should ban all business, travel, and commerce with Russia. Shut them Out, isolate them.

kraznyi_oktjabr

03-02-14, 12:50 PM

You are aware that Europe's forces have been downsized dramatically over the last two decades? Germany is pretty much at it's Limit with just a few thousand troops in Afghanistan and Kosovo. We will get some 200something new Puma IFV to replace the 2000something Marders that we once had (yes, our mechanized infantry will have 10% of it's cold war strength then...the tank hunters with their Jaguars have been disbanded altogether), the Netherlands have disbanded their tank units and cut their air force by 30% and don't even start with the British military which has been butchered. Forget Europe, we thought the cold war is over and everyone will live happily ever after.:dead:Here are personnel strengths of armies when fully mobilized. Pick your dream (or most realistic) teams.

"The Bad Boy"

Russian Federation 3,250,000

Other side of the pond

USA 2,291,910
Canada 127,954

Europeans in descending order

Ukraine 1,214,900
Turkey 1,087,930
Poland 663,000
Greece 461,600
France 413,469
Finland 388,700
United Kingdom 387,570
Italy 347,667
Germany 326,927
Portugal 301,930
Serbia 220,000
Spain 219,510
Switzerland 203,130
Estonia 87,258
Hungary 85,450
Denmark 80,092
Norway 69,275
Netherlands 67,641
Austria 65,700
Cyprus 60,800
Bulgaria 51,550
Sweden 50,200
Croatia 42,600
Belgium 40,492
Lithuania 30,150
Czech Republic 28,920
Ireland 25,335
Bosnia and Hertzegovina 23,000
Albania 19,795
Latvia 16,611
Slovakia 16,531
Slovenia 15,500
Montenegro 13,227
Republic of Macedonia 12,850
Kosovo 3,600
Malta 2,121
Luxembourg 1,512
Monaco 263
Iceland 130

...and naturally kindest way to describe equipment of these European armies is "diverse". Efficiency problems due equipment incompatibilities would be significant although most of countries listed above would propably say "Thank you but no thank you!" for idea of fighing Russia...

Schroeder

03-02-14, 12:52 PM

volodya61

03-02-14, 12:56 PM

...What we can and should do, US and Europe should ban all business, travel, and commerce with Russia. Shut them Out, isolate them.

Thank you.. maybe it's better to do against officials, deputies and the government and not against all citizens.. they all have the property and accounts in your countries, I mean our officials and the government and Putin himself.. not alienate ordinary people.. if sanctions against all Russian citizens, the world will get a new round of Cold War and nothing else..

sailor_X

03-02-14, 01:00 PM

Skybird

03-02-14, 01:00 PM

30% of Europe's energy demand is fed by Russia. Second biggest energy provider is Algeria.

Just read the headline: the newly appointed head of the Ukrainian navy also defects, swearing allegiance to the autonomous republic's Russian-supported government instead.

Assuming he did so while not staring into the mouth of a Kalashnikov, this is the second high level defection of the day.

Ukraine has called for generalk mobilzation, which will bring 1 million to arms, but with outdated equipement ont he ground, and lack of coordination. They are not en par with the Russian military, I'd say. And more, you can bet that not all these units are Europe friendly and will accept Kiew'S command. There will be more units switching sides.

Now the tricky thing is: Kiew does not know which one it will be.

Skybird

03-02-14, 01:09 PM

Here are personnel strengths of armies when fully mobilized. Pick your dream (or most realistic) teams.

"The Bad Boy"

Russian Federation 3,250,000

Other side of the pond

USA 2,291,910
Canada 127,954

Europeans in descending order

Ukraine 1,214,900
Turkey 1,087,930
Poland 663,000
Greece 461,600
France 413,469
Finland 388,700
United Kingdom 387,570
Italy 347,667
Germany 326,927
Portugal 301,930
Serbia 220,000
Spain 219,510
Switzerland 203,130
Estonia 87,258
Hungary 85,450
Denmark 80,092
Norway 69,275
Netherlands 67,641
Austria 65,700
Cyprus 60,800
Bulgaria 51,550
Sweden 50,200
Croatia 42,600
Belgium 40,492
Lithuania 30,150
Czech Republic 28,920
Ireland 25,335
Bosnia and Hertzegovina 23,000
Albania 19,795
Latvia 16,611
Slovakia 16,531
Slovenia 15,500
Montenegro 13,227
Republic of Macedonia 12,850
Kosovo 3,600
Malta 2,121
Luxembourg 1,512
Monaco 263
Iceland 130

...and naturally kindest way to describe equipment of these European armies is "diverse". Efficiency problems due equipment incompatibilities would be significant although most of countries listed above would propably say "Thank you but no thank you!" for idea of fighing Russia...

Yadda yadda. ;) And Ukraine has 1000 tanks. Impressive. But it is old T-64 tanks, and only one or two dozen T-84. They also have another 1000 tanks in the dust box. These are even older T-55, some old T-72, and a few T-80s.

And so on. I mean you cannot judge an army's strength by its personnel numbers only. The Ukrainian forces are weak, with their fighters being their best weapon - and these fighters to 50% are not combat ready.

Oberon

03-02-14, 01:16 PM

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/02/world/europe/russia-to-pay-not-so-simple.html?hp&_r=2

Jimbuna

03-02-14, 01:21 PM

I think the only option to Obama would be to increase the level of Russia's political and economic isolation.

kraznyi_oktjabr

03-02-14, 01:22 PM

Yadda yadda. ;) And Ukraine has 1000 tanks. Impressive. But it is old T-64 tanks, and only one or two dozen T-84. They also have another 1000 tanks in the dust box. These are even older T-55, some old T-72, and a few T-80s.

And so on. I mean you cannot judge an army's strength by its personnel numbers only. The Ukrainian forces are weak, with their fighters being their best weapon - and these fighters to 50% are not combat ready.Completely agree. Finland's manpower is quite good taking into account our population, but its still mostly infantry with Kalashnikov derivates. There is couple of hundred Leopard 2A4 tanks and few hunder other armoured vehicles, handful of F/A-18C/D Hornet fighters, insignificant amount of helicopters (all transport) and Navy has some minelayers and missile boats. If Russian troops from Leningrad and other oblasts start marching to west its going to be very short battle except propably some limited guerilla warfare and insurgent action.

Dread Knot

03-02-14, 01:23 PM

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/02/world/europe/russia-to-pay-not-so-simple.html?hp&_r=2

I noted that Obama said in his statement yesterday: "Any violation of Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity would be deeply destabilising, which is not in the interests of Ukraine, Russia or Europe." But these are the words of a university professor thinking logically, rather than a savvy, cynical politician. For Putin, Russia's interest (and his own) would be massively served if US and European interference, as he sees it, in Ukraine is knocked back decisively.

So Putin's calculations are likely to prove right. The "costs" to Russia of its latest bit of neighbourhood vandalism may be limited to a US boycott of the next G8 summit, in June, a diplomatic freeze, or a wrangle at the UN security council, or some form of punitive trade measures or sanctions. Maybe a few dirty looks if next they meet. If that sounds like a puny response, it is. It will not deter Putin, the unrepentant cold war warrior. It is just what his contemptuous soul expected.

Dread Knot

03-02-14, 01:33 PM

Now guess where Germany is getting a good portion of it's gas from.:-?
We need them more than they need us so don't count on Germany doing anything.:down:
I don't like it, but I don't see any reasonable way for us to take actions that wouldn't heavily backfire on us. :damn:

The original concept behind the Nord Stream gas pipeline with Russia was too idealistic. Russia had needed economic support, financial help and investments for a long time and the EU was one of the parties providing those. With the Nord Stream pipeline the EU's thinking was that by trade and interdependency Russia would continue its transition towards democracy and prosperity. But Putin proved otherwise.

The decision to buid the Nord Stream meant that other viable pipeline projects such as Nabucco from the south were scrapped in favour of Russian gas. And a decade ago the EU got about half of its gas from Russia. But since then there has been active policies for a more heterogenic energy mix and Russia's share has been on a long decline to the current 1/3. Gas from Norway and Quatar has been on a steady rise instead, and with the LNG terminals gas can be shipped from other parts of the world too.

Apparently, these past few years, the EU hasn't been completely asleep.

volodya61

03-02-14, 01:41 PM

just my and not only my opinion..
Only freezing and seizure of assets of Putin and his friends and our other officials in EU and US banks is able to scare them.. they are all billionaires.. and they don't keep their money in Russia.. they don't fear war.. they won't die there.. they fear only lose their money.. nothing else..

Aktungbby

03-02-14, 01:43 PM

Look, I'm all for nuclear war against Russia as much As the next guy, but i doubt it will happen, would disrupt the US food stamp program. What we can and should do, US and Europe should ban all business, travel, and commerce with Russia. Shut them Out, isolate them.
Precisely! Nuke em till they glow; But if memory serves, Nikita gave the Crimea to Ukraine so this is more in the order of a readjustment to prior generosity by a non Russian who had the brains to back down in the recent Cuban Missile Crises. Russia still has had a naval base in the Crimea as we do in Guantanamo so the point is somewhat moot. Let him re-establish his patrimony candy-grabwise and show his true Sudenland style colors, nothing new here. With Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia all NATO on his northern shoulder and Turkey, also NATO, cramping his Black Sea warm port egress on his southern shoulder, he is not in any terrific long-range winning position geopolitically. All of the former Iron Curtain nations are NATO so his cage is pretty well defined. Combined active and reserve NATO has about 9,000,000 troops available. Immediately however...sanctions: removal from the Security council of the UN and expulsion from the G8 should be imposed. In reality, as long as China still illegally holds Tibet, how can we in the West be morally picky over our Panda Bear political cuties of the moment. At this moment in time, both Russia and China, percieving weakness in the West, are rattling their scimitars mostly as appealing eye-candy for their own mettlesome populations. This is wait and see time. But politically the mask is off...diplomatically; no nation need continue the farce that Russia is a peaceful democratic nation. The 'Evil Empire' is a'kickin' but has lost any element of surprise or disguise, including the thin veneer of hosting the Olympics while whipping Pussy Riot.(at least that got blamed on the scapegoat 'Cossacks with batons')http://rt.com/news/pussy-riot-sochi-cossacks-748/ (http://rt.com/news/pussy-riot-sochi-cossacks-748/) 'Eyes are front and bayonets are fixed'...well Obama spent 90 minutes on the phone with Putin if that helps...and I don't think it was the 'Hot Line' either! :rotfl2:

Dread Knot

03-02-14, 01:50 PM

Jimbuna

03-02-14, 01:58 PM

According to the BBC the Perekop Isthmus which connects the Crimea to the Ukraine is being fortified.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26405635

Calling General Manstein.....calling General Erich Von Manstein. :D

If I were the Ukraine I doubt I'd me mobilising the army atm, this could be all Putin needs to up the anti.

Dread Knot

03-02-14, 02:06 PM

If I were the Ukraine I doubt I'd me mobilising the army atm, this could be all Putin needs to up the anti.

According to the report, it's Russian troops doing the trench digging on their end. The circumstances are far different, but it does bring up memories of late 1941 for the average Russian I am sure.

Jimbuna

03-02-14, 02:08 PM

According to the report, it's Russian troops doing the trench digging on their end.

I took this from the first line of your link.

Ukraine has ordered a full military mobilisation in response to Russia's build-up of its forces in Crimea.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26405635

antikristuseke

03-02-14, 02:14 PM

According to the report, it's Russian troops doing the trench digging on their end. The circumstances are far different, but it does bring up memories of late 1941 for the average Russian I am sure.

Probably closer to the partitioning of poland in 1939, but this time without a third party while the world looks on.

mapuc

03-02-14, 02:20 PM

Here's a scenario

Tomorrow(Monday) NATO shall hold an extraordinary meeting. The meeting is due to a demand from Ukraine for help against Russian aggression.

At this meeting it will be decided that NATO deploy 25000 man in Ukraine, as well as 4 divisions F-16s.

This NATO force are there to prevent further aggression from Russia.

Markus

Dread Knot

03-02-14, 02:22 PM

Thank you.. maybe it's better to do against officials, deputies and the government and not against all citizens.. they all have the property and accounts in your countries, I mean our officials and the government and Putin himself.. not alienate ordinary people.. if sanctions against all Russian citizens, the world will get a new round of Cold War and nothing else..

I see Chessmaster Gary Kasparov has made if official by voting with his feet, and becoming a Croatian citizen. However, he was at odds with Putin long before all this.

http://www.allvoices.com/contributed-news/16639246-chess-champ-gary-kasparov-now-croatian

Hawk66

03-02-14, 02:23 PM

Mr Quatro

03-02-14, 02:59 PM

This is all about control ... who controls the money that is.

Our country is threating with control of sanctions (means money)

EU is offering loans and they can't even guarantee Italy, Greece or Portugal will be able to have a better life due to EU much less poor Ukraine that can't even afford heating oil from Russia.

Personally I don't want to see EU take over in the Ukraine ... Russia is just one step closer to becoming partners with EU. EU taking control of their banking is not on Russia's agenda. They have good reasons to resist.

EU wants to be the one world bank no matter what it cost ... you won't see that in print any where, but that is a prophecy I don't want to see.

Elections will probably take care of the freedom talk, but not the bad feelings between neighbors.

Just a war of words so far ... it's all about the money I tell you :hmmm:

Oberon

03-02-14, 03:05 PM

Tribesman

03-02-14, 03:21 PM

You're adorable.
Shame Tribes is in the brig. I really miss his finesse of dealing with people that believe war is something to look forward too.
Why would I bother with that vein of nonsense? There is so much tub thumping flag waving jingoism with an unhealthy dose of nationalism doing the rounds at the moment its almost like a time warp back to 1914
I would take this instead and address the very obvious flaws....

Oberon why won't you laugh at Churchil's decision not to fight Soviets when Poland was invaded on 1939 september the 17 th ?

Firstly, Churchill wasn't prime minister then, he only became prime minister after his departments disasterous attempt at intervention in Scandanavia led to the fall of the sitting government. So it cannot have been Churchills descision.
Secondly, Britain and Poland had an agreement which only covered German actions, both parties agreed to it which meant Russias actions were entirely outside the scope of their mutual arrangement.

Aktungbby

03-02-14, 03:27 PM

Calling General Manstein.....calling General Erich Von Manstein. :D
Been reviewing the Alternative History Thread have you!:up::salute:"Not necessarily Germany; just Manstein himself, who was arguably the best commander of WWII and could handle whatever the Russians could throw down except perhaps for Zhukov. If Napoleon's assessment of his own marshals is an example, Von M., the classic Prussian officer, was "capable of the great game" in all aspects, including the political of which warfare is only "Other means"; ... The man could do it all on the battlefield, stand up to the Fuhrer, and helped rebuild his country after the war ...the quintessential go-to Prussian von Herr...smart, ruthless and gifted." PRECISELY!!! And Putin ain't no Zhukov! He may have smarts but he's got no 'horse sense':o
http://www.belarusguide.com/images/people/USSR_1945_Victory_Parad.jpg (http://www.belarusguide.com/images/people/USSR_1945_Victory_Parad.jpg)Zhukov in Red Square: lookin' good VS Putin: God knows where (diggin' trenches?)...not lookin' so good trying to recapture past glory; and I wonder what happened to the photographer:dead: !http://i.huffpost.com/gen/1350290/thumbs/r-PUTIN-HORSE-large570.jpg?6

volodya61

03-02-14, 03:29 PM

I see Chessmaster Gary Kasparov has made if official by voting with his feet, and becoming a Croatian citizen. However, he was at odds with Putin long before all this.

That's funny you mentioned about this man.. he was one of those who called people to the streets and squares two years ago.. and when regime started the repressions, he had fled.. and what about others? who, like me and many others, can't do it so easy? who фку not welcome in EU or US?..

BTW, Gennady Timchenko.. unofficial Putin's 'wallet' and his billions keeper.. he is a citizen of Finland.. what EU think about him?

Oberon

03-02-14, 03:38 PM

There is so much tub thumping flag waving jingoism with an unhealthy dose of nationalism doing the rounds at the moment its almost like a time warp back to 1914

Isn't that the sad truth, in 100 years we have learnt sod all. What a way to mark the centenary.

Skybird

03-02-14, 03:41 PM

It is so often claimed that the Ukrainians want this or that. As if there is this thing, this uniform mass of just the Ukrainians who all want the same.

several times during the euphemistically so-called Arab spring the West spoke of "the opposition", as if it were one cohesive opposition with one set of goals shared by all. And then it was a conglomerate of various groups with antagonistic agendas, even rightout religious radical group and terror groups.

There still is no government in the Ukraine elected by all populatiopn, and there still is not just one (former) oppsotiion. There is not just "the" Ukrainians who want to move towards Europe. Thgere are fascists for sure. There pro-EU groups. There are pro-Russian groups. There are ultra-nationalists - some with love for Russia, some with love for independence from both the EU and Russia.

And so we would be well advised to realise that a part of the Ukrainians want towards Europe. We should stop thinking that "the" Ukrainians" in general are against Russia or pro Europe. Some are like that, and some others are right the opposite.

And we currently have no clue at all whom and how many the provisory government in Kiew actually is representing. It might be much lesser people, than Westerners right now want to make themselves believe.

On Euronews there was a man from the streets of Kiew, who left an impression on me. He looked quite disillusioned into the camera, with a sad face and tired eyes, and he said: "Whatever, we have lived for years in friendship and neighbourhood - and now this? Whatever comes now, just don't let it be war. Anything, just no war."

Sailor_X and his eagerness to proudly throw himself into the hated Russians' bajonets maybe should be given the opportunity to have a little talking with this man. Just to bring himself a little bit more to his senses.

News says that many Ukrainian troops on the Crimea are deserting or switched sides.

mapuc

03-02-14, 03:48 PM

The Global Brown Trouser Clock will be moved closer to midnight.

It's just some kind of a scenario and far from the real thing

Here's the real scenario

NATO send a message to the Ukraine government, saying NATO can't assist in their struggle against Russia. At same time NATO send Ukraine's request to the UN.

In UN there will be many drafts and every one rejected by the Russians and the bureaucracy are working very slowly and in the year 2022 UN decide to send some observe to the rest of Ukraine.

See this is the real life scenario.

Markus

Admiral Halsey

03-02-14, 04:06 PM

It's just some kind of a scenario and far from the real thing

Here's the real scenario

NATO send a message to the Ukraine government, saying NATO can't assist in their struggle against Russia. At same time NATO send Ukraine's request to the UN.

In UN there will be many drafts and every one rejected by the Russians and the bureaucracy are working very slowly and in the year 2022 UN decide to send some observe to the rest of Ukraine.

See this is the real life scenario.

Markus

This is a totally unrealistic scenario. The UN would still be debating whether or not to send observers in 2022! :haha:

volodya61

03-02-14, 04:24 PM

Seems Frau Merkel won Putin and won in the new Crimean War.. :)

Oberon

03-02-14, 04:29 PM

News says that many Ukrainian troops on the Crimea are deserting or switched sides.

Not just troops, the latest is that the new head of the navy has defected as well, and Crimea is organising its own navy.
Russia might not even have to lift a finger to win this war. :hmmm:

Mr Quatro

03-02-14, 04:30 PM

This is a totally unrealistic scenario. The UN would still be debating whether or not to send observers in 2022! :haha:

in which China and Russia would veto it :D

UN is a joke, but you have to read what they say anyway :down:

nikimcbee

03-02-14, 04:36 PM

Yep.

What we can and must do is finally stopping our infantile illusions about peacefully melting the world together, multiculti and all that, but to honour grim realities and understand that Russia is our political partner - NOT. It'S interests in parts are completely opposing ours. But we act as if we share interests and values. And now there we stand, with dropped pants, bare-bottomed, thumb in mouth, snapped.

They honour their business contracts, however. Even during the Cuba crisis, they fulfilled their obligations in deliveries to Europe.

What about the Coca cola commercials?:D

Admiral Halsey

03-02-14, 04:39 PM

in which China and Russia would veto it :D

UN is a joke, but you have to read what they say anyway :down:

Of course it's a joke. Sad thing is it's still better then what came before it. Though to be fair it has done fairly well in it's real mission to prevent another global conflict like the two world wars. Of course it will someday fail that but for now it's doing a decent job.

Oberon

03-02-14, 04:42 PM

Admiral Halsey

03-02-14, 04:45 PM

Alledged reports from the BBC that a loud explosion has been heard in Simferopol, no more details yet.

There's a pretty good collection of random news selections about the Ukraine in:
http://www.reddit.com/live/3rgnbke2rai6hen7ciytwcxadi?t=t

It's times like this when I just lay back and listen to It's the End of the World as We Know It (And I Feel Fine).

nikimcbee

03-02-14, 04:47 PM

Admiral Halsey

03-02-14, 04:49 PM

Just for fun, let's say Ukraine was part of NATO. Who's going to act first on the NATO side?

Air campaign?:haha: Good luck with that, this isn't Iraq or Serbia. I don't think the Russian air force is going to run away and hide.

If Ukraine was a part of NATO? Then Russia wouldn't even be saying a thing let alone trying to annex Crimea. Putin may be many things but stupid he is not.

mapuc

03-02-14, 05:15 PM

It's not just here I discuss this Ukrainian crisis, I also discuss this among my Danish and Swedish friends on FB

I asked a Danish friend this question:

Shall we give Putin & Co some kind of ultimatum?

His answer was "yes we have to make a point, saying remove your forces from Ukraine"

I asked him an another question

Shall we stand on this ultimatum?

His answer "Of course we shall"

I then told him that any conflict between NATO/USA and Russia Will unrelentingly switch from conventional warfare to nuclear warfare

I asked him again. Shall we give Putin some kind of Ultimatum and shall we stand ground?

Or are I'm wrong?

Markus

Admiral Halsey

03-02-14, 06:04 PM

Tribesman

03-02-14, 06:14 PM

That's the major problem with getting involved in a shooting war over this and you hit the nail in the head. As much as people would like to stand by Ukraine we can't actually fight with them otherwise the doomsday clock WILL strike midnight.

Which raises another angle.
If Ukraine still had its nukes would Putin be playing silly buggers in the Crimea?

mapuc

03-02-14, 06:24 PM

Which raises another angle.
If Ukraine still had its nukes would Putin be playing silly buggers in the Crimea?

Last week a Danish historian, released a book about the Danish footnote policy and cold war in the 70'ies and the 80'ies.

In this book he wrote that the Russian had a "light view" on using nuclear weapons. According to him, the Russians expected to use nuclear weapons from the first day of a war against the West

They looked very reckless at this.

Markus

Skybird

03-02-14, 07:02 PM

Last week a Danish historian, released a book about the Danish footnote policy and cold war in the 70'ies and the 80'ies.

In this book he wrote that the Russian had a "light view" on using nuclear weapons. According to him, the Russians expected to use nuclear weapons from the first day of a war against the West

They looked very reckless at this.

Markus

Actually that is a view shared by many military analysts and historians and is not that new at all. It is illogical to wage a conventional war for lets say 2 weeks, allow NATO to mount the technical superiority of its air forces and shoot the Russian air force and air bases into pieces and thinning out the Soviet tank divisions - and then trying to compensate that by escalating nuclear. OF COURSE you use nukes first, and in a surprise strike - and THEN care for the remains of what is left.

Skybird

03-02-14, 07:13 PM

Just for fun, let's say Ukraine was part of NATO. Who's going to act first on the NATO side?

North Atlantic Treaty, Article 5

The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognised by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.
Any such armed attack and all measures taken as a result thereof shall immediately be reported to the Security Council. Such measures shall be terminated when the Security Council has taken the measures necessary to restore and maintain international peace and security .

Note the phrasing I set apart in green. It is a linguistic backdoor that allows to weasel out of defence obligations, if one does not want to imp0lement them, because whether or not military force is deemed necessary, is a subjective assessment and thus a matter of wanted interpretation. Article 5 is a relatively effective deterrent - but totally sealed and waterproof it is not.

Oberon

03-02-14, 08:56 PM

Actually that is a view shared by many military analysts and historians and is not that new at all. It is illogical to wage a conventional war for lets say 2 weeks, allow NATO to mount the technical superiority of its air forces and shoot the Russian air force and air bases into pieces and thinning out the Soviet tank divisions - and then trying to compensate that by escalating nuclear. OF COURSE you use nukes first, and in a surprise strike - and THEN care for the remains of what is left.

Yup, IIRC policy on both sides called for nukes, if not on the first day then very shortly afterwards.

Anyway, the big story of this evening/morning is not in the Ukraine...what the heck has happened in Slovakia and the Czech Republic?

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bhl7t7VCcAABxCf.jpg

I bet if the map went a bit more to the left it would say "East Germany" :haha: At least they remembered that Yugoslavia is no longer a thing.

Admiral Halsey

03-02-14, 09:10 PM

Yup, IIRC policy on both sides called for nukes, if not on the first day then very shortly afterwards.

Anyway, the big story of this evening/morning is not in the Ukraine...what the heck has happened in Slovakia and the Czech Republic?

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bhl7t7VCcAABxCf.jpg

I bet if the map went a bit more to the left it would say "East Germany" :haha: At least they remembered that Yugoslavia is no longer a thing.

:har::har: Oh and a small tidbit about me. I was born after Czechoslovakia split.

Stealhead

03-02-14, 10:56 PM

I bet some people get deeply concerned looking at that mistake map because they notice that a giant amoeba named "Hungary" is about to ingest Czechoslovakia.

Today Czechoslovakia tomorrow the world.

kraznyi_oktjabr

03-03-14, 01:09 AM

in which China and Russia would veto it :DWhy would they? :D By then there is nothing to see really or atleast nothing you can do.

UN is a joke, but you have to read what they say anyway :down:Agreed...

Jimbuna

03-03-14, 05:21 AM

Schroeder

03-03-14, 05:37 AM

I don't see the west getting involved in an armed conflict but organised embargos and trade sanctions may well have an impact on the people of Russia who in turn would pile internal pressure on Putin, possibly bringing him to the negotiating table.
Because Putin is so easily impressed by what his people are thinking....:hmm2:

Jimbuna

03-03-14, 05:57 AM

No, I doubt he does or ever has but sufficient sustained pressure both internally and externally may get the attention of some of his backers.

kranz

03-03-14, 06:54 AM

just an 'off-topic' photo:
http://www.ukemonde.com/putin/putin-father-in-vlasov-army-b.jpg

Biggles

03-03-14, 08:14 AM

I don't see the west getting involved in an armed conflict but organised embargos and trade sanctions may well have an impact on the people of Russia who in turn would pile internal pressure on Putin, possibly bringing him to the negotiating table.

I really wish this will happen, Jim ol' boy. Unfortunately I've come to expect less from Putin. He only cares what someone thinks when that someone holds a gun to his back.

Dread Knot

03-03-14, 08:47 AM

People need to keep in mind that the current situation in the Ukraine represents an abject failure of Putin's recent foreign policy. Several months back when Yanukovych rejected the EU deal in favour of ties with Moscow that looked like a major win for Putin and his customs union. Now he's scrambling to save face and salvage what he can. With relations with the West now in tatters, he'll likely never regain the status quo. What really makes Putin dangerous is that isn't as clever as he (or any number of political commentators) think he is.

Tchocky

03-03-14, 09:19 AM

What's happening in Ukraine cuts to the core of what terrifies Putin - popular uprisings in favour of Western-style democracy.

Now, the Arab Spring certainly wasn't that, but it was in the beginnings a general revolt against autocracy. Putin lives in fear of the same thing happening in Russia, hence the support for Yanukovych - who apparently Putin doesn't even like.

Skybird

03-03-14, 09:29 AM

Riots reach Donezk. Pro-Russian demonstrators occupy buildings of city administration.

I do not think there is a realistic chance for Kiew anymore to regain full territorial integrity of former Ukraine again. Crimean peninsula is as good as lost, and Russia has driven its fangs deep into it and will not let it go again. Some of the most Eastern provinces maybe will follow. Maybe that will be temporary only, maybe it will be forever. These are places where majorities of populations seem to tend for leaning towards Russia. From a sober and prinmciple standpoint, I have no problem for regional populations deciding their own fate, and so have nmo problem with them wanting to become Russian. Whether I consider theitr choice as wise, economically and regarding their freedom and state controlling them, or not, is not important, since I do not live there - it is their choice, not mine.

Question is whether the Russians will stay out of Ukrainean provinces where Russians do not play that much a role. So far there are no indications they mobilise forces to invade all Ukraine.

Putin plays tough and boxes with gloves taken off. But it is worth to remember that he is no insane daredevil just gambling and drinking blood for the taste of it. Whatever he does, he does not without calculating it precisely. And compared to earlier Russian and Soviet leaders of the past centuries, he is relatively tame, and quite predictable. Only Yeltzin and Gorbatchew were more harmless Soviet leaders. Stalin, Crushtchow, Breshnew all imposed much more terror, bloodshed, ruthlessness and force onto their and other people, not to mention most of the Tsars. This is not to take sides for him. I only want to put the crisis today a bit into relation. It does not compare in scale and violence to Hungary, Chechoslowakia or the WWII attack on Poland. Putin already got what he wanted: a disruption of Kiew'S move towards the EU, and the Crimean. Any further taking of eastern provinces I think only is a bonus in his eyes as long as the costs for doing so are within managable dimensions.

Skybird

03-03-14, 09:34 AM

What's happening in Ukraine cuts to the core of what terrifies Putin - popular uprisings in favour of Western-style democracy.

Beside the sphere of domiance by Russia (custioms union and eurasian union) for which he needs a EU-non-related Ukraine, that is a major motive, yes. However, the West overestimates the strength of the opposition in Russia. I cannot see them to represent a Russian majoreity. I see the majority being in support of Putin. He has had twenty years to prepare the basis for that: for example changing the schooling and education accordingly, and founding his famous youth-organization. The Stalin cult is stronger than ever in Russia today. The strong leader at the top is "in", and gets celebrated. this is what Western media most of the time do not report.

All that is manipulation, yes. But our governments do not do any differently, they too manipulate their populations and try to teach and educate the thinking that they want. Just the means and tools are slightly different.

Tchocky

03-03-14, 09:40 AM

Well democracy is still a dirty word in Russia, that opposition are having a hard time isn't surprising.

I'd say there's a lot more than a "slight" difference between Russia and the West regarding manipulation. Anna Politovskaya, for example.

Betonov

03-03-14, 09:43 AM

I'm affraid of who will replace Putin if an uprising occurs.

I'd love to see him tarred and feathered, but his ruthlessness keeps the real hardliners in check. People are going to vote the one that can convince them, not the peacefull reformer.
But then again, a pro-western tycoon might be the best thing to lead Russia.

Dread Knot

03-03-14, 09:51 AM

Interesting comment by Angela Merkel.

http://theweek.com/article/index/257259/speedreads-germanys-merkel-vladimir-putin-is-living-in-another-world

Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany told Mr. Obama by telephone on Sunday that after speaking with Mr. Putin she was not sure he was in touch with reality, people briefed on the call said. "In another world," she said.

Skybird

03-03-14, 10:29 AM

Well democracy is still a dirty word in Russia,
It is a dirty word for me as well, though for totally different arguments than from a Russian POV.

Regarding physical violence that you point at, the Western nations acchieve much the same outcome - just by using more subtle, more clever, more system-ebedded tools. The claim for power and control, behiodn doing so, is not one bit differfent from that of a feudal elite that keeps its peasants in blindness and slavery.

Sometimes Westsern nations are not so subtle, however. Iraq. Afghanistan Want to do a body count Putinism versus Bushimism?

Or we compare , as I already did earlier, the Crimean intervention today with Panama 1989. Grenada 1983. Same arguments given as excuses. Same patterns. Humanitarian excuses to cover cold-calculated geostrategical interests.

As historians who examine the history of genocides and state violence sometimes say: dictatorships kill. Democracy let kill.

Jimbuna

03-03-14, 10:29 AM

Some would say 'the kettle calling the pan black'.

Skybird

03-03-14, 10:36 AM

Gazprom's shares lose billions in value at stockmarkets today. Gazprom now considers raising prices - for the Ukraine.

The Ukraine cannot pay that. Who will come to the rescue? ICF, EU, Washington. That money given - then flows to Russia. :D

Flamebatter90

03-03-14, 10:39 AM

From BBC:

Russia's Black Sea Fleet has given Ukrainian forces in Crimea until 5:00 local
time (03:00 GMT) on Tuesday to surrender or face an all-out assault,
according to Ukrainian defence ministry sources quoted by Interfax-Ukraine
news agency. "If by 5am tomorrow morning they do not surrender a real
assault will begin on units and sections of the Ukrainian armed forces all over
Crimea," defence ministry officials are quoted as saying. So far there is no
further confirmation of the ultimatum from other sources.

Skybird

03-03-14, 10:57 AM

The Ukrainian small navy is seated next to the Russian major units at Sewastopol, and they are no match for the Russians, if they become serious about it.

Regarding the Crimea, there cannot be any more surprising news, the case is clear. What is important now is news indicating whether or not Russians pour out of the Crimea for Donezk - which must be taken into account as a possibility - or even try to invade all of Ukraine - which I think is unlikely, but would indeed be a major disaster. But there seem to be no reports of military movements in russia that would be needed for such a huge task. What there is in movement, seems to aim all at the Crimea, and the East.

But the Crimea is done.

Oberon

03-03-14, 10:58 AM

Oberon

03-03-14, 11:13 AM

From BBC:

The press office for the Ukraine defence ministry in Crimea confirms to the BBC that an ultimatum to surrender or face an all-out assault from Russia's Black Sea Fleet has been delivered.

http://www.reddit.com/live/3rgnbke2rai6hen7ciytwcxadi?t=t

Jimbuna

03-03-14, 11:51 AM

From BBC:

Sure enough:

Russia demands surrender of Ukraine's Crimea forces

The Russian military has given Ukrainian forces in Crimea until 03:00 GMT to surrender or face an assault, Ukrainian defence sources have said.

The head of Russia's Black Sea Fleet Aleksander Vitko set the deadline and threatened an attack "across Crimea".

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov earlier said Russia was responding to "ultra-nationalist threats".

Western powers have condemned Moscow's decision to send troops as a "violation of Ukraine's sovereignty".

I can see the Ukrainian military in crimea surrendering....they're certainly not like to get any military reinforcement.

03-03-14, 12:12 PM

I think it's got less to do with political systems and more to do with influence spheres. Russia fell out of the big game during the 1990s and has had to race to catch back up again. During that time, the west hasn't stood still, and has pushed itself up to Russias borders, and now Russia is pushing back again.
The near abroad still contains some nations which have not been brought into NATOs sphere, so Russia is certainly concerned about losing influence there, particularly in areas that it has traditionally held sway over. Russia has lost the Baltic states, but has managed to keep the other 'Near abroad' nations within its sphere, Georgia started to drift, but Russia put it back in its place in the South Ossetian war, now it's Ukraines turn. I would say that if Belarus had had something similar to this occur then exactly the same things would be happening.
The US does similar things in South America and Europe has been known to undertake actions (one could argue that one of the points of the Kosovan war was to weaken Serbia, a Russian ally) which superpower vies for control over different nations, this is a process that hasn't changed since the rise of civilization, all that has changed is the countries involved.

True , but for those geopolitical games to work there must be a infrastructure.
I say again give the Ukrainians some credit here.
They had been under corrupted government and russian influence/meddling or extortion for quite a while , nothing good came out of it.
Life is bad , economy is crap and there is no future so many of them went to the streets.
In particular when viewing some ex communist bloc countries enjoying mutch better prosperity while aligned with west - czech republic or poland.
It is not just about flag waving or geopolitical games although it also is....many jump on this wagon.

Aktungbby

03-03-14, 12:20 PM

I think it's got less to do with political systems and more to do with influence spheres. Russia fell out of the big game during the 1990s and has had to race to catch back up again. During that time, the west hasn't stood still, and has pushed itself up to Russias borders, and now Russia is pushing back again.
The near abroad still contains some nations which have not been brought into NATOs sphere, so Russia is certainly concerned about losing influence there, particularly in areas that it has traditionally held sway over. Russia has lost the Baltic states, but has managed to keep the other 'Near abroad' nations within its sphere, Georgia started to drift, but Russia put it back in its place in the South Ossetian war, now it's Ukraines turn. I would say that if Belarus had had something similar to this occur then exactly the same things would be happening.
The US does similar things in South America and Europe has been known to undertake actions (one could argue that one of the points of the Kosovan war was to weaken Serbia, a Russian ally) which superpower vies for control over different nations, this is a process that hasn't changed since the rise of civilization, all that has changed is the countries involved.

Indeed! It would be a very interesting thing at this juncture if Belarus were suddenly to join the NATO Alliance, instead of awaiting a domino effect; Anchored along with the NATO member Baltic states: Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, that would tighten the cage considerably, as per my previous post. The Crimea is a hollow victory for Putin; at any time we wish we control the Bosphorus through Turkey and His Black Sea Fleet is immobilized. His access to the Mediterranean from his only warm water port is completely cut off...he winds up with a lake all to himself. This little goosestepper really needs a moustache...and a shirt to go with his nag. It also would'nt hurt to freeze his personal bank account(s); after all, money is the sinews of war.

VipertheSniper

03-03-14, 12:27 PM

omg, Belarus joining the NATO, don't make me laugh, they are firmly in Russias pocket.

Oberon

03-03-14, 12:35 PM

True , but for those geopolitical games to work there must be a infrastructure.
I say again give the Ukrainians some credit here.
They had been under corrupted government and russian influence/meddling or extortion for quite a while , nothing good came out of it.
Life is bad , economy is crap and there is no future so many of them went to the streets.
In particular when viewing some ex communist bloc countries enjoying mutch better prosperity while aligned with west - czech republic or poland.
It is not just about flag waving or geopolitical games although it also is....many jump on this wagon.

Oh, goodness yes, I was referring more to Russias reaction to the uprising rather than the cause of the uprising itself.
There has been a wave of unrest in a few former pact states, I know that Slovenia had some a short while ago, Romania had protests in 2012, Albania in 2011. I think that the honeymoon period of post-communist democracies is coming to a close as we now have a generation of adults who don't remember life in the Pact, and who have either travelled abroad to western democracies or seen information from them on the internet and wondered why their systems aren't as geared towards anti-corruption as the wests (not that we don't have corruption, we just have it in different places and it's a bit more hidden).

Now, in regards to 0300Z tomorrow, if I were the Ukranian navy, and I wasn't already planning to defect, I'd be wiring everything that is explosive to detonate, because the Black Sea Marines are not to be messed with, and they will take the Ukrainian fleet. The question is just how much the Ukrainian forces will be able to destroy before its captured. I'd wager that the Russian forces will be wanting to keep destruction to a minimum because they'll be wanting to give the infrastructure and weaponry over to the newly independent Crimea.
We shall see...with this level of warning, there will be plenty of cameras trained on the area, that much is certain.

Aktungbby

03-03-14, 01:16 PM

Now, in regards to 0300Z tomorrow, if I were the Ukranian navy, and I wasn't already planning to defect, I'd be wiring everything that is explosive to detonate, because the Black Sea Marines are not to be messed with, and they will take the Ukrainian fleet. The question is just how much the Ukrainian forces will be able to destroy before its captured. I'd wager that the Russian forces will be wanting to keep destruction to a minimum because they'll be wanting to give the infrastructure and weaponry over to the newly independent Crimea.
We shall see...with this level of warning, there will be plenty of cameras trained on the area, that much is certain.
On yer six on that! :yeah:I cant believe Ukraine sailors aren't scuttling their own vessels and placing small charges against some of the Russian ships just to cry "havoc" and unleash the Chihuahua de guerre. I understand (CNN) a Russian officer actually boarded a Ukrainian vessel and gave a surrender ultimatum at Sebastopol...I'd have shot the bugger for failure to ask permission to board and for not saluting the 'poop' were I the vessel's commander and then sunk my ship in the worst location possible port-wise!:arrgh!:

Oberon

03-03-14, 01:40 PM

On yer six on that! :yeah:I cant believe Ukraine sailors aren't scuttling their own vessels and placing small charges against some of the Russian ships just to cry "havoc" and unleash the Chihuahua de guerre. I understand (CNN) a Russian officer actually boarded a Ukrainian vessel and gave a surrender ultimatum at Sebastopol...I'd have shot the bugger for failure to ask permission to board and for not saluting the 'poop' were I the vessel's commander and then sunk my ship in the worst location possible port-wise!:arrgh!:

I think putting charges on a Russian vessel might well result in the entire dock being levelled. At least if you destroy your own equipment and then surrender, you have a more equal chance of the surrender being accepted, rather blowing up their vessels and then trying to surrender. :03:
Sinking in the worst place in harbour would also be a tactic, but I suspect that the moment one of the Ukrainian vessels tries to move it will have its engines shot out by the supervising Russian warships. :03:

Jimbuna

03-03-14, 01:47 PM

Oberon

03-03-14, 01:48 PM

Looks like some of the vessels are preparing for a fight:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bh0GC_LIcAAZroV.jpg

"Ukrainian naval ships crew lines railing w mattresses and hauls water hoses & fire fighting equipment to deck."

The acting president of the Ukraine has claimed that Russian vessels are blockading Ukrainian vessels in the bay, which makes sense if they do plan to unleash a 'storm' on them.

In other news, the US is looking at putting sanctions on Russia, but the UK isn't, presumably because it would probably hurt us more than them.

Betonov

03-03-14, 01:57 PM

.
There has been a wave of unrest in a few former pact states, I know that Slovenia had some a short while ago, Romania had protests in 2012, Albania in 2011.

Yugoslavia was never a pact state. Tito and Stalin had a split in 1948 when Tito refused to allow Yugoslavia to become a satellite, resulting in high tensions, threat of a war and even asasination attempts on Tito.
The ''split'' ended in 1955.
Yugoslav army maintained two defence plans. One for a NATO invasion and one for the Warsaw pact invasion.

Tito used the lack of influence by the USSR to gain aid from the west and start the non-alignment movement.

http://izquotes.com/quotes-pictures/quote-to-joseph-stalin-stop-sending-people-to-kill-me-we-ve-already-captured-five-of-them-one-of-them-josip-broz-tito-273052.jpg

Just some quick history :03:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tito%E2%80%93Stalin_split

Aktungbby

03-03-14, 02:11 PM

I think putting charges on a Russian vessel might well result in the entire dock being levelled. At least if you destroy your own equipment and then surrender, you have a more equal chance of the surrender being accepted, rather blowing up their vessels and then trying to surrender. :03:
Sinking in the worst place in harbour would also be a tactic, but I suspect that the moment one of the Ukrainian vessels tries to move it will have its engines shot out by the supervising Russian warships. :03:

SAME GAME and a Pyrrhic victory to boot if the dock is levelled; somewhat along the French (Froggies?) Vichy scuttling their entire fleet in '42 at Toulon. It's about Putin losin' face. At least a few charges in an ammo magazine would lend permanence to the debacle. As for frogmen, I think Putin has secured all the Scuba shops in Sebastopol :Din his brilliantly orchestrated (well entrenched) takeover.:hmmm: What is clear from the mattresses is 'mafialike': they've "gone to the mattresses" the 'Repel Boarders' order is obviously in effect..."by sea if not by land":up:

Jimbuna

03-03-14, 02:14 PM

Looks like some of the vessels are preparing for a fight:

"Ukrainian naval ships crew lines railing w mattresses and hauls water hoses & fire fighting equipment to deck."

Looks like someone is in for a good soaking :)

Oberon

03-03-14, 02:21 PM

Yugoslavia was never a pact state. Tito and Stalin had a split in 1948 when Tito refused to allow Yugoslavia to become a satellite, resulting in high tensions, threat of a war and even asasination attempts on Tito.
The ''split'' ended in 1955.
Yugoslav army maintained two defence plans. One for a NATO invasion and one for the Warsaw pact invasion.

Tito used the lack of influence by the USSR to gain aid from the west and start the non-alignment movement.

Just some quick history :03:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tito%E2%80%93Stalin_split

http://www.gunandgame.com/forums/attachments/powder-keg/23214d1245836173-carrying-full-size-m1911-facepalm-putin.jpg

I knew about the split, so why the heck did I put Slovenia in the Pact? :/\\!! I'm going to pull the 'Dumb Islander' card that Schroeder keeps giving me and say that I had a momentary lapse of history. My deepest apologies. :shucks:

Oberon

03-03-14, 02:23 PM

SAME GAME and a Pyrrhic victory to boot if the dock is levelled; somewhat along the French (Froggies?) Vichy scuttling their entire fleet in '42 at Toulon. It's about Putin losin' face. At least a few charges in an ammo magazine would lend permanence to the debacle. As for frogmen, I think Putin has secured all the Scuba shops in Sebastopol :Din his brilliantly orchestrated (well entrenched) takeover.:hmmm: What is clear from the mattresses is 'mafialike': they've "gone to the mattresses" the 'Repel Boarders' order is obviously in effect..."by sea if not by land":up:

It does certainly look like there's going to be a fight, although the odds are not in their favour...but that does not necessarily mean victory for those who have the upper hand, as we know...but any victory in this will, alas, only delay the inevitable.

God help them.

mapuc

03-03-14, 02:24 PM

Oberon

03-03-14, 02:26 PM

I believe that the current plan is going for option a, as opposed to option b which gets us all killed.

Betonov

03-03-14, 02:26 PM

I knew about the split, so why the heck did I put Slovenia in the Pact? :/\\!! I'm going to pull the 'Dumb Islander' card that Schroeder keeps giving me and say that I had a momentary lapse of history. My deepest apologies. :shucks:

I think you put us a bit too further north. God forbids, my tomatoes wouldn't be happy further from the Adriatic as they are now :03:

Jimbuna

03-03-14, 02:31 PM

it all depend on what Russia and the "government" in Crimea do next

I could be wrong or remember wrong, but have any countries given after due to embargo or bojcot against their country?

I guess the answer is no

Then we have two choices, either we let Russia do as they do, as far they want to or we pull a line in the sand and say enough and take a fight

Markus

The problem with an embargo or boycott is the time it takes for it to take and have an effect, also matters usually have a consequence financially etc. for those who perform the deed.

Skybird

03-03-14, 02:57 PM

While the new interim government in Kiev is lining up with some of the oligarchs (so much for the new ones beign so much better than the old ones) in a hope to win them for having the East supporting Kiew,EU and US widely ignore that apparently a majority of the population on the Crimea supports the going of events and do not want to be governed by the Ukraine anymore. It seems that the West is quite comfortable with having Kiew dominating a region that does not want to belong to Kiew by majority, while said regional majoirty freely deciding to be governed by Moscow is unforgivable.

I do not understand how people could voluntarily chose to become vasalls of Moscow and for myself would avoid that at all cost, but if they chose that to be - who am I to tell them that they are not allowed to chose that? It's their life, their choice, their freedom, their future.

The Russian will not let go the Crimea. And the West is neither willing nor capable to seriously confront the Russians over that, militarily. So pragmatically and reasonably, there is just this option now: first to make sure the Ukrainian forces on the Crimea do not start a shooting war, but get out, and second that an indeed freely held referendum takes place quickly, where the population indeed freely can vote whether they want to belong to Russia or not.

And that referendum, if not manipulated in its outcome, then is to be respected. Its not as if the Russian have shuttle Russians into the Crimea in recent days to gain ethnic dominance there - they have that since two generations already, if not longer, so it is not really a trick to hold such a referendum.

Most likely that refrendums outcome already is clear. Which will not be liked by the anti-Russian minority and the Tartarians. But at this time we have nothing better than deciding by majority votings, it seems.

Needless to say that such a referendum should be respected by the EU and US as well.

I see no other reasonable way out of this. Anything else in alternatives is just dirtier.

Also, I respect the natural right of any region, also in Western countries, to secede from a national alliance, if that is what the people in said region want. Not allowing that due to "constitutions" or demand for control by some central government, in the end is just slavery and feudalism. Forming of superregional communities or relations, must be voluntary.

It is ironic in a way, that my sympathy for some fundamental, basic principles of libertarianism forces me to defend a cause that a militant autocratic regime is pushing in some part of the world. History has queer ways at times, that is for certain.

03-03-14, 02:59 PM

I think you put us a bit too further north. God forbids, my tomatoes wouldn't be happy further from the Adriatic as they are now :03:

Slovakia , Slovenia world used to be simpler:doh:
Nowadays everyone wants ...his own country...madness:o:-?

Slovakia is part of EU.

kranz

03-03-14, 03:01 PM

Slovakia , Slovenia world used to be simpler:doh:
Nowadays everyone wants ...his own country...madness:o:-?

posted by a guy from Israel.
:har:

03-03-14, 03:04 PM

posted by a guy from Israel.
:har:

Well...Yeah:03:
:haha:

Betonov

03-03-14, 03:08 PM

Wait until everyone wants his own municipality.

Catfish

03-03-14, 03:11 PM

^ :haha:

Have those guys back then ever thought of Kenia, or Tansania ?
I am not sure but i once read that there was a plan, to give land to the jews in that region, but i could be wrong ..

Skybird

03-03-14, 03:12 PM

Slovakia , Slovenia world used to be simpler:doh:
Nowadays everyone wants ...his own country...madness:o:-?

There was a time when pre-Germ,any consisted of over 1600 "national" sub-entities. Some time later, it were around 300, then 150. At that time, German culture, invention, trade blossomed more than ever again or before. Because there were many actors competing for talents.

Or the Italian city states. What is admire din Itlaian culture and arts, would for the most not exost today if there would not have been the competition between cities for wealth, and talented people. The diversity made the Itlains vulnerable to military leviathans from outside, however.

That's why I propagate a culture of worldwide city states, not just some city states on one continent that one by one then would get overwhelmed by the nationals states form other continents. National states always are always self-legitimizing monopolistic law-makers and law breakers, and monopolised blackmailers of protection money payed by private people (taxation).

To hell with the idea of states. And democracies - supress, steal and plunder just like any other regime, feudal system, state. If not even worse.

03-03-14, 03:15 PM

^ :haha:

Have those guys back then ever thought of Kenia, or Tansania ?
I am not sure but i once read that there was a plan, to give land to the jews in that region, but i could be wrong ..

It was Uganda lol.
Never mind...not bordering with Ukraine.
:doh:

BossMark

03-03-14, 03:21 PM

http://i1224.photobucket.com/albums/ee374/rothwellwhite1/11630_zps141eed34.jpg

Oberon

03-03-14, 04:27 PM

There was a time when pre-Germ,any consisted of over 1600 "national" sub-entities. Some time later, it were around 300, then 150. At that time, German culture, invention, trade blossomed more than ever again or before. Because there were many actors competing for talents.

Germany post-HRE is terrifyingly confusing. :nope:

Jimbuna

03-03-14, 04:37 PM

Wait until everyone wants his own municipality.

Too many armchair experts for that to be considered :O:

Skybird

03-03-14, 04:40 PM

Germany post-HRE is terrifyingly confusing. :nope:
In the beginnings, yes. Near the end of that phase, when there were only some dozen dukedoms left, it was quite fascinating, due to the immense blossoming of science, culture, arts, trade - everything.

All later success of German virtues (engineering, sciences, arts in music and writing), would not have been imaginable without this era.

Admiral Halsey

03-03-14, 10:32 PM

So the deadline that was given has passed and it seems that nothing has happened. Maybe there really wasn't one after all?

Flamebatter90

03-04-14, 12:15 AM

The Russian defence ministry did deny the ultimatum claim yesterday, so who knows.

BossMark

03-04-14, 12:57 AM

Putin persecutes homosexuals in his own country, then goes and enters another country through the back door.

Very mixed messages from Russia.

nikimcbee

03-04-14, 01:45 AM

http://i1224.photobucket.com/albums/ee374/rothwellwhite1/11630_zps141eed34.jpg
:har:

Flamebatter90

03-04-14, 02:12 AM

Looks like bunch of Ukrainian soldiers from Belbek base went over to the Russians, unarmed.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bh3NogJIIAEIInv.jpg:large

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bh3XIZRIEAATNfz.jpg:large

ETA: Different twitter feeds from reporters at Belbek say the Ukrainians are demanding access to the planes at the Belbek airstrip.

"Colonel Mamchur (in the background) talks with Russian officers, demanding to be allowed access to the planes"
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bh3UERVIcAAAsA6.jpg:large

Jimbuna

03-04-14, 05:08 AM

So now we have the stand off situation with Russia withdrawing the 150,000 troops that were exercising on its western border but still having 16,000 troops in the Crimea.

One tiny chink of light but putin is certainly negotiating from a position of strength:

Russia is pushing for the crisis to be resolved by returning to an agreement signed in Kiev last month, which was overtaken by events.

Moscow wants the current government in Kiev to be replaced by a broad coalition representing what it calls all political forces in the country, with presidential elections being held in December.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26430846

Alex

03-04-14, 05:39 AM

Hmmm.

To put it bluntly, I'll start by speaking shortly about the way the french media covered events until now - but I bet you can find the absolute same **** in all the EU. So this post is directed to people living in the EU - I'm letting the US and UK aside of course, De Gaulle didn't want the UK to integrate the EU for good reasons. :hmm2:

Watching tv, anyone most likely can notice there is a bias towards the ukrainian opposition, against the ukrainian government, and particularly against Russia.
Just to give you a little example, 2 days ago some french tv channel was giving some news related to that mess taking place on Maidan square in Kiev. The female journalist was interviewing some young ukrainian student, who basically was saying something like "on Maidan square there are students and other people carrying firearms, getting ready to attack the police". :huh:
I've got to see that news at tv one and only time.
And then, basta.
Didn't see the same news at tv a single time afterwards. The tv channel didn't show the same report any more, for the simple reason that news didn't fit the EU/western editorial line, most probably. :hmm2:
[Later, we'll get to hear about the freedom of the press in France :88)]

Such a thing shows how much the media falls into line with the government, its policy, its political decisions, and how much it's really not possible to present another point of view than what we can call "the official one". :hmm2:
Then, I bet absolutely all people have got to see how much all tv channels started plaguing everyone with a certain kind of infos - anti-Russia,
anti-Putin, trumpeting how much Ukraine needs its independence from Russia - but here, allow me to remind everyone of some important facts !

I really can't see why everyone is looking for engaging in the same aggressive and negative attitude the media is doing its best to give all people in Europe, so to force everyone in Europe to think the us of A's way, and to see Russia as Europe's worst enemy. Russia can very well be part of Europe, and such a Europe - I mean including Russia - may well be very desirable in fact, as such an alliance would allow the european union to get itself somewhat detached from the diktats of the united states of America. The EU would get as powerful as the united states of America, and that would allow the Euro to get more powerful too !

[french point of view there]
But it's not the point of view of the european union elites, in whose attitudes anyone can feel how much the actual ukrainian mess is nothing less than a revenge against Russia following what Russia has been able to do in the Middle East ; i.e. France did loose the battle there, and especially the syrian one that was kind of the main one. And then, we get to see those ukrainian events being used to settle our scores with Russia - it all started with that president of ours boycotting the opening of the olympic games in Sochi. Right afterwards, the media coverage - feeling free to call russian diplomatic directors every name under the sun at times - reported that despite all concessions given by the ukrainian president, he absolutely needs to resign. :o

And here again, I believe one needs to be very objective. :hmm2:
Winds of change are blowing in Ukraine these days, true. The country is kind of split in two, that's right. You can find those who believe in Russia and the help this country can bring them (and they're not wrong, as a matter of fact : Russia mentioned it's willing to give 15 billion dollars to Ukraine, lowered the gas price, and offered 2 more billion dollars some days ago to Ukraine to get it out of the crisis).
While on the other side, you can find the european dream - yet we still need to mention there's not much of an european dream in Ukraine actually : a part of the population is simply against Yanukovich, against the russian influence, and corruption. And I absolutely understand the point of view of those who live in western Ukraine. However, the european union is stuck in that bloody financial crisis currently, and didn't offer to give much to Ukraine on an economical point of view : the EU just said it's willing to let's say intercede with the opposition to strenghten democracy, or something like that.
And the serious question is : can you find some cold, hard cash on the negotiating table of the EU, that would get Ukraine out of the economical crisis ?

Very obviously, the answer is "no". :hmm2:
We have nothing at all. That is the european dream, ladies and gentlemen.
I'm willing to believe in that dream, you know, but there may well be another dream out there, one that could be a little brighter, the one to make Russia a part of Europe - and here I wish to remind everyone that Putin, when it comes to the missile defence shield that is supposed to be put up by NATO and the Americans, Putin made the suggestion to make it a joint project with Russia, as Russia could contribute to make it real. :hmm2:

In fact, what does the european union is seeking now ? :hmmm:
Nothing more than the US diktat : like Russia needs to be broken up, and isolated absolutely. Otherwise, a strong Russia being able to stand up to the us of A's interests can not be accepted. And so that's what we can see at tv everyday : a russian vision of Europe being independant and autonomous, and the other vision, a vision of Europe that never stops working in the interests of the united states of America, in order to bring Russia under the control of the united states of America and their policy.

I understand the american and english point of view on what's happening these days.
But if I'm not mistaken, there's also a good part of people living outside the US and UK in here. Didn't read everyone's message posted until now in this thread, I just read a few. And while reading them, I felt like I was at the saloon in Once upon a time in the West, everyone being at the bar enjoying his beer, while many reload their guns and play with their spurs and all... :doh:

US geopolitics is fine, but you may come up to different conclusions if you try to see the situation from your own countries' point of view and interests, period. Use your brain instead of reading the bbc and times news, that's all I'm saying. :)

Oberon

03-04-14, 07:02 AM

The trouble is, I think we've gone too far down the road to turn back up it now, the chance to bring Russia into a co-operative stance with the EU was around 2000 or so, but we never really took Russia seriously, laughing at the shambles that it had found itself in after the fall of communism, or still treating it as the communist enemy, taking the opportunity of a weakened Russia to push the border between East and West closer to Russias territory.
Now our birds have come home to roost, we have pushed Russia for the past two decades and now Russia is pushing back and its doing so having come from being the underdog of the 1990s to a position of strength. If you can only credit the governing forces of Russia with one thing, it's the dramatic turnaround of Russia post-Yeltsin from a nation sliding into decline back into a superpower. It wasn't a pretty process, nor one that we would support in the west, but you cannot argue with the fact that Russia is stronger now than it was in the 1990s.

So, where does that leave us? Well, pretty much exactly where we were before the Berlin wall came down but with a different line up of nations. The shadow of the Cold War is still hanging over Europe, Russia is still considered a hostile force by many, and when it conducts operations like this, even though it is similar to actions undertaken by Western nations in recent history, it is automatically reassigned its position of Cold war enemy.

Still, it's good news for the military-industrial complex (TM) which was facing potential cuts in the near future, at least with Russia being given its Cold War status back they can make a case for the continuation of massive military spending... :03:

And when it comes to news, I have also noticed an east/west split in regards to how the news regards the current Ukrainian regime, which is why I've been sampling news from both. You'll notice in this thread that I've been posting stories from both the BBC and Russia Today, which both have their own slants on the story. The reddit live thread which I have also linked to is also quite useful for getting live updates of the situation on the ground, from twitter accounts of reporters in the area, as well as news stations from around the world, from the BBC to Al'Jazerra to RT.

I'll post it again for the benefit of those reading this page:
http://www.reddit.com/live/3rgnbke2rai6hen7ciytwcxadi?t=t

Skybird

03-04-14, 07:30 AM

I hoped that this article would get translated by them for their international edition, but so far they haven't. If they do it later, I'll post it then. It sheds some light on how stupid and provocative the new government in Kiew has acted indeed and that they have little reason to complain about Russia's reactions - if they do not honour treaties they just signed with Western diplomats, promises they just gave, and bring fascists and Russia-haters into many governmental seats that immediately pass a law that aims at discriminating Russians and limit Russian language - that is spoken as primary language in one third of the Ukraine's provinces.

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/krim-krise-die-fatalen-fehler-der-kiewer-regierung-a-956680.html

It reminds me a,lot of Georgia. There, the Wets immediately knew that the Russians were all evil and bad and criminal and so on. And the more light was shed onto Shaakashvili'S activities, the more the questionable basis of his claims and his own criminal acts and his own criminal nature was revealed. It ended with European diplomacy fully bypassing and ignoring Shaakashvili in the years to come.

The new government in Kiew does not seem to be much better. Has it come to anybody's thinking in the West that Putin maybe planned this operation obviously since so long in advance, because he really knows it much better than us naive Westerners with what kind of breed he is dealing with in Ukrainean politics, and that Klitschko's Udar party would be too weak and too naive to make a difference...? It were the fascists and radicals, the ultranationalists and lobbyists of oligarchs who immediately took over control on the Maidan when Yanokovich was ousted - not truly democratic, humanistic philantropists. The ultra rightwingers form the biggest faction in the current Kiew government -and they praise the time when they had lined up with the Nazis and cooperated with SS divisions against the Russian Bolshewiks.

I so far saw this whole issue pragmatic and sober, and avoided to take sides. But the more I learned about the real nature of the gang taking control in Kiew, the more I feel sympathy and understanding for the Russian reaction. Who knows, if they don't mess it up and play this as disciplined to the end as they have started it, they even may end up with getting my full support. In other words, my views on this crisis are in a tremendous shift currently.

---

In further contrast, this more emotional piece, that exaggerates the understanding for the Russians and Putin himself maybe a bit, but nevertheless holds the mirror to the West'S haughty face, and for better or for worse nevertheless has a point regarding how we demonise Russia always, just because Putin refuses to play according to the rules we want him to play by. It has been my argument since over ten years that Russia is Russia, and does not compare to a Western nation where Western rules maybe function. The determination and hard fist politics maybe are the only thing that keeps the country from falling apart. And if there is one thing that I indeed fear, and certainly more than an autocratic regime in Moscow that nevertheless counts as one of the mildest and most humane in the history of Russia of the past couple of centuries, then it is a Russia destabilizing and loosing control of its crimnal oligarchs and the milizary and the hidden lobbies and elites. Then we could be set for a real big war again. Compare Putin to Crushtchow. Or Stalin. And then you see the difference. At least you should.

http://www.welt.de/debatte/kommentare/article125387514/Der-Westen-sollte-Putin-umarmen.html

I despise ex-chancellor Schroeder very much. I despise him absolutely. And I have criticised him often on his one-sided defence of Putin and Russia (and calling Putin an "absolutely clean democrat" certainly was not the fruit of intellectual brilliance by Schroeder, although Putin indeed has been elected in a procedure that formally fullfills the demand of having been "democratic", and Putin having the support of a majority of Russians). But I can understand the reasoning behind staying away from criticising Russia too harshly. Westerners must finally learn that they form only roughly 18% of mankind and that most regions on this planet are different in problems and inherent complexities from our Western places.

We accuse Russia to act by reflexes from the cold war. What I am missing is any awareness by how far we act ourselves by views we have carried over from the cold war. No wonder that Putin has u-turned his stance towards Europe and the US in the past decade - I cannot call him foul for that. I say that since many years.

Merkel complained to Obama that Putin appeared to be disconnected from reality. I think Obama and Merkel are the ones being disconnected form reality. That explains their brilliant efficiency in meeting reality.

I bet in two or three years the West's view of the current crisis will be much more muted and silent than it is now. It will go the same way like it was regarding Shaakashvili and Georgia.

It'S like Oberon indicates. We have pushed the Russians back and pushed them back, and then pushed them back again. Now they push back. Nobody likes to be pushed into a corner and having the shinier parts of his history being notoriously ignored in a bid for demonising him even better.

For us, there is just one thing to do right now: make sure we do not line ourselves up with the highly dubious figures that currently reside in Kiev.

Skybird

03-04-14, 07:56 AM

German, sorry.

http://www.tagesspiegel.de/wirtschaft/ukraine-um-umbruch-deutsche-unternehmen-berichten-von-versuchter-enteignung/9564004.html

New government not so clean and sober as claimed in the West: it seems they try to expropriate German company and business owners who invested in the Western Ukraine and run business there.

I move another centimeter onto the Russians' side.

Flamebatter90

03-04-14, 08:18 AM

Better look at the flag the Ukrainian soldiers were carrying at Belbek.

Air Force Sebastopol Air Brigade at #Belbek was Red Air Force 62nd squadron in WWII with six! Heroes of USSR
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bh4oQo5IAAAzTVx.jpg:large

03-04-14, 11:15 AM

Skybird

03-04-14, 11:37 AM

MH,

in the 90s, when I studied at university, I had a girl from Russia amongst my friends, her family had left Russia in the mid-80s. She came from Archangelsk. Time and again she said that she liked many traits in the Russian psyche, and Russian arts and music and literature - and that she hated the grim social reality in Russian cities at that time, and the dirty, broken houses and the smell of pi$$ on the stairs and the shabby looks, and more and more comments like this, and that she would never go back to live there, although she worked as a tourist guide for Western travel groups.

Her brother, however, was different. He agreed with all she said about the miserable life - and nevertheless returned to Russia in 2001 to live there, saying he could not stand the Western life style, and that he missed, as he called it, his real home. Rhodina calling, I assume.

You cannot generalise them all like you, or Neal recently, did: not for all of "them" the West is as attractive as you imagine. In the Ukraine, a significant part of the population, and that includes non-Russian Ukrainians as well!, simply do to want to have something to do with EU. You must not understand them, and you must not expect them to explain it to you. You must just accept that the view on the EU and Russia is not as uniform as you and some others seem to think. And maybe it helps to understand that many Russians love their home country as much as Americans love theirs. Maybe not becasue its poltics, or the economic status. But for reasons that nevertheless are dear enough to them.

It is not helpful to always trample on such sentiments.

The blind Western belief of some people that the shine here in the West is just irresistable to everybody, simply is nothing else but reality-disconnected arrogance. Would I like to live in Russia? Hell, most likely I would admire the landscape but would nevertheless hate to live in Russia. Nor would you like it. Or Neal. But not every man on Earth is like us. Different strokes for different folks. For the EU and Washington, all this is not one bit less about controlling and practicing power over people, than it is for the Kreml. Without obedient peasants - being kings means nothing, you know. And kings them leaders in both Moscow and Western capitals want to be.

Oberon

03-04-14, 11:53 AM

No doubt they distanced themselves from Russia, whilst there are those who indeed have a longing for the days of the Cold War and the Soviet Union in both east and west, there are many more who are happier that they have passed.
What I'm saying is, rather than quietly consulting with Russia on how the post-Cold war break-up should go, thus reaching a settlement that is good for both sides, we operated an open door policy. Which, whilst morally right, has given rise to tension from Russia who has seen the west get closer and closer to their border, and with the major war ability of NATO and the US, this is a threatening thing...and then, to top it all off, the anti-missile defence system plan in Poland. Thankfully Obama tried to dial back the Bush era tensions, but the die had been cast long before then, and here we are.

Of course, having said that, it's a reassuring thing for Eastern European nations to be a part of NATO since they will have no desire to be once again under the Russian sphere of influence, but there is a saying about cornering a wild animal, particularly a bear, and the wisdom of doing such a thing.

03-04-14, 11:58 AM

Skybird.
I never said the view was uniform.
Actually im quite aware of how russians view west or how they view their own country...sometimes with justifiable reasons but very often not, Putin knows how to exploit this.....
Many immigrants here...also from Ukraine.

Aktungbby

03-04-14, 01:03 PM

And when it comes to news, I have also noticed an east/west split in regards to how the news regards the current Ukrainian regime, which is why I've been sampling news from both. You'll notice in this thread that I've been posting stories from both the BBC and Russia Today, which both have their own slants on the story. The reddit live thread which I have also linked to is also quite useful for getting live updates of the situation on the ground, from twitter accounts of reporters in the area, as well as news stations from around the world, from the BBC to Al'Jazerra to RT.Indeed! And it is that measured, consummate all 'round perspective that we at :subsim: have come to rely on in these testy discourses. Keep it up!:up: :Kaleun_Binocular:( I wonder what Putin is watching...besides his personal investment portfolio report? as he pulls off his wretched version of the Rhineland reoccupation without the thin veneer benefit of an Austrian '40's style plebiscite vote even...):k_confused:

volodya61

03-04-14, 02:10 PM

Better look at the flag the Ukrainian soldiers were carrying at Belbek.

This is not the state flag.. this is the flag of this military unit (62 Fighter Regiment).. it was formed in September 1941.. so that's why it has Soviet flag or more precisely Red Army flag..

Admiral Halsey

03-04-14, 02:20 PM

So apparently Russia just test fired on of their ICBM's. I think it's safe to say that Putin is not going to back down and just showed how far he's willing to go with this.

Jimbuna

03-04-14, 02:24 PM

If you can't read in Russian then don't post..
This is not the state flag.. this is the flag of this military unit (62 Fighter Regiment).. it was formed in September 1941.. so that's why it has Soviet flag or more precisely Red Army flag..

And that is what he quoted:

Air Force Sebastopol Air Brigade at #Belbek was Red Air Force 62nd squadron in WWII with six! Heroes of USSR

volodya61

03-04-14, 02:43 PM

And that is what he quoted:

I think here was some misunderstanding from my side.. I didn't pay attention to the quoteв text :)..

Jimbuna

03-04-14, 02:50 PM

I think here was some misunderstanding from my side.. I didn't pay attention to the quoteв text :)..

There's enough bother over there without adding to it here :O:

:03:

Oberon

03-04-14, 03:34 PM

So apparently Russia just test fired on of their ICBM's. I think it's safe to say that Putin is not going to back down and just showed how far he's willing to go with this.

Routine test, but, there's still a hidden message in there.

Jimbuna

03-04-14, 03:39 PM

Routine test, but, there's still a hidden message in there.

Purely coincidental? :hmmm:

Oberon

03-04-14, 03:52 PM

Purely coincidental? :hmmm:

A US official, speaking anonymously to Reuters, says Washington received prior notification of Russia's missile test plans, which pre-dated Russia's military movements in Crimea.Pretty much, although the fact that it wasn't moved back or cancelled due to tensions speaks a fair bit.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bh6Oht-CYAAn8sR.jpg

Reuters: A girl releases a balloon near a possible Russian serviceman outside a Ukrainian base in Perevalnoy

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jQYQTFudrqc

Dread Knot

03-04-14, 04:14 PM

Reuters: A girl releases a balloon near a possible Russian serviceman outside a Ukrainian base in Perevalnoy

Agggh! The Balloon has gone up in Europe!

Schroeder

03-04-14, 04:22 PM

Agggh! The Balloon has gone up in Europe!
As long as they don't release 99 red balloons everything is alright.:yep:

Dread Knot

03-04-14, 04:34 PM

As long as they don't release 99 red balloons everything is alright.:yep:

Yeah...Neunundneunzig Luftballons. Whatever happened to Nena? :hmm2:

Tango589

03-04-14, 04:43 PM

Still doing OK for herself, apparently: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nena

Dread Knot

03-04-14, 04:45 PM

Still doing OK for herself, apparently: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nena

My. She's aging better than me. :)

Mr Quatro

03-04-14, 05:05 PM

So apparently Russia just test fired on of their ICBM's. I think it's safe to say that Putin is not going to back down and just showed how far he's willing to go with this.

This is where the UN can come in handy ... they should send in UN weapons inspectors to make sure that Russia did not just test fire a new ICBM and practice reloading their silo's at the same time.

This would be in violation of the old Salt agreement and would nullify any further disarming of our Fleet Ballistic Missile (FBM) submarine's.

Obama must stand firm on this and draw another red line in the sand and wait for the tide to come in that is.

Admiral Halsey

03-04-14, 07:16 PM

This is where the UN can come in handy ... they should send in UN weapons inspectors to make sure that Russia did not just test fire a new ICBM and practice reloading their silo's at the same time.

This would be in violation of the old Salt agreement and would nullify any further disarming of our Fleet Ballistic Missile (FBM) submarine's.

Obama must stand firm on this and draw another red line in the sand and wait for the tide to come in that is.

If Obama draws a red line that is the worst thing possible for him to do. It would basically force the US to help Ukraine if the rest of it was invaded and if that happens well we can all kiss our butts goodbye.

Skybird

03-04-14, 08:35 PM

Actually if Obama draws a red line - well, a sack of rice falling in China holds more potential for drama and excitement, than red lines drawn by Obama.

:88)

Skybird

03-05-14, 06:06 AM

Oberon

03-05-14, 07:21 AM

I dare say there are movements about, but they're just not receiving much in the way of air time, there's always a group in London protesting about something, so I would be highly surprised if there wasn't a protest going on outside the Russian embassy in London at the moment, probably not a big one, but it'll be there.
Yeah, just as I thought, here they are:
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/protesters-rally-outside-russias-embassy-in-london-over-ukraine-invasion-9163716.html

http://news.ninemsn.com.au/national/2014/03/03/20/49/hundreds-protest-outside-russian-embassy

http://www.montrealgazette.com/technology/Ukrainian+flag+flies+Parliament+Hill+protesters+ga ther/9576815/story.html

http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/protesters-gather-at-russian-embassy-putin-go-home/

Skybird

03-05-14, 07:39 AM

I stick to it. It does not compare. Not by a huge margin.

Betonov

03-05-14, 07:46 AM

https://fbcdn-sphotos-g-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-ash3/t1/1622187_648957171808468_1751620803_n.jpg

Oberon

03-05-14, 08:42 AM

I stick to it. It does not compare. Not by a huge margin.

Well true, because the Ukraine isn't quite in as big of a mess as Palestine right now, not yet anyway.

It's apples and oranges really.

03-05-14, 09:20 AM

Has anyone noted it, btw - the deafening silence of the peace movement and the churches? No rallies on plazas held in the West? No demonstrations and announcements of catchy paroles in TV media at best broadcasting time? No crowds of concerned Westerners marching to government buildings and handing petitions? No rock concerts for peace in Western cities?

Considering how noisy they immediately become when it is about criticising Israel, one-sidedly victimizing Arabs, or defending Islam against criticism, one would have assumed that the same enthusiasm would be shown over a crisis that has much more explosive power and serious consequences, than the unsolved Endlösung of the Israeli question.

The answer is easy , just take deeper look at some of the organizations , financing and so on…
Not saying that many of the members at the bottom are not simply a careing but often ignorant people led by the nose.
The Ukrainian issue has nothing to do with the agenda if those organizations not in importance or how ,,messy,, it is.

Skybird

03-05-14, 09:28 AM

Apples and oranges?

Well, the Palestinian coinflict is minor, compared to the Ukraine, I often said it gets hopelessly overestimated in importance. But the drums on their behalf get banged every day.

But I could as well pick the example of Syria. Far far worse a bloodshed and national disaster, though not as dangerous to the world, than the Ukraine, or the Palestinian Arabs. But again: the noise made over the syian war doe snot compare to that noise over Israel and its "inhumane" policies and "genocide", the criticism and interest is much more muted, in comparision. "Syria? Well - yes. Heard of it. Thanks for reminding me of it."

But lets not derail this thread further, I wanted just to point at how choosy international peace activists are in picking their causes. If the chase is against Israel, or Western "intolerance" and "discrimination", then that is the best incentive to get them raising their slimy voices. But other stories that are much more dangerous or much more grim in barbary - not so important as if they would show the same fervor in criticising them.

Skybird

03-05-14, 11:40 AM

German magazine "Focus" reports that the US is sending a warship into the Black Sea, an according request has been passed on to the Turks.

The US also announces they are intensifying cooperations with Polish air force and the air forces of the three smaller Baltic states.

The air cooperation is reasonable, all these countries are NATO members. The warship deployment only adds a little fuel into the fire.

Tymochenko also enthusiastically prepares the next explosion, saying that she will speed up getting Ukraine into NATO, if she would become elected president. - I estimate a 1:2 chance that Putin even would wage a full war all over Ukraine (or run a full occupation) to prevent the Ukraine becoming a NATO member. The Russians already play tough over Moldawia, wich borders to the Ukraine in its South-West, by buying off the political leaders where they can.

Betonov

03-05-14, 11:54 AM

There are no major anti-war rallies because the US is not the agressor here.
All the people I know (all, not most) support Russia in giving the middle finger to the US. They simply don't give a damn about Ukraine but just love to see Obama squirm.
Anti US sentiments are high in the younger population.

Jimbuna

03-05-14, 12:11 PM

Ukraine v Russia militaries - in 60 seconds

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26437359

Might be better if Klitschko and Putin slugged it out in a boxing ring, at least the Ukraine would then have a fighting chance.

Flamebatter90

03-05-14, 12:14 PM

All the people I know (all, not most) support Russia in giving the middle finger to the US.

http://i.imgur.com/kCdJnhh.gif

:)

Oberon

03-05-14, 12:30 PM

I think most Americans, especially here, like Putin giving America the middle finger too because they can blame it on Obama. :haha: :03:

BossMark

03-05-14, 12:35 PM

I don't know why people in the US are so afraid of World War III.

Even if Russia declared war tomorrow, we are still at least three years away from the States joining the war.

Jimbuna

03-05-14, 12:39 PM

I don't know why people in the US are so afraid of World War III.

Even if Russia declared war tomorrow, we are still at least three years away from the States joining the war.

WWIII wouldn't last three days, never mind three years.

Oberon

03-05-14, 12:45 PM

WWIII wouldn't last three days, never mind three years.

Be lucky if we made it three hours, Jim.

Jimbuna

03-05-14, 12:48 PM

Be lucky if we made it three hours, Jim.

Aye...just time to cook an egg or grab the sexiest looking woman in whatever store you might just happen to be in :)

Aktungbby

03-05-14, 01:10 PM

Skybird: German magazine "Focus" reports that the US is sending a warship into the Black Sea, an according request has been passed on to the Turks. Aktung: In reality, as long as China still illegally holds Tibet, how can we in the West be morally picky over our Panda Bear political cuties of the moment. Skybird: I wanted just to point at how choosy international peace activists are in picking their causes. Aktung: With Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia all NATO on his northern shoulder and Turkey, also NATO, cramping his Black Sea warm port egress on his southern shoulder, he is not in any terrific long-range winning position geopolitically. All of the former Iron Curtain nations are NATO so his cage is pretty well defined Skybird: The US also announces they are intensifying cooperations with Polish air force and the air forces of the three smaller Baltic states. The air cooperation is reasonable, all these countries are NATO members. The warship deployment only adds a little fuel into the fire.
:agree:Precisely! The cage begins tightening ALREADY and a US warship already ventures into the 'Russian lake'; let the games begin...now if someone would just freeze Putin's foreign bank accounts, we could negotiate in earnest! His grab at the Crimea is more in the nature of the monkey's fist; if he doesn't let go, he can't pull his hand back out of the illicit cookie jar!