Huge pro-EU rally grips Ukraine

[Schroeder]

I also live in Russia and am fairly convinced that Russia is heavily involved in this conflict.
Last time I checked Estonia was a sovereign country or did you move to Russia recently?:doh:

[antikristuseke]

Derp, ment to write next to russia...damn brainfart
Edit: According to the Estonian ambassador to the Ukraine Sulev Kannike it will e decided tomorrow if they declare a a state of war or not.
http://uudised.err.ee/v/valismaa/b12f10f4-041e-4954-82ef-5e3a33430c9a
Source is in estonian, I don't have the time to translate it in its entirey just now, maybe in a few hours.

[CCIP]

until the issue becomes so cloudy that nobody knows what to believe.

What if the issue is cloudy by its nature? Why the desire for black-and-white solutions in what's clearly and provably a very grey picture?

This is the problem - entering complex situations with a simplistic mindset is not just naive but criminally irresponsible. I thought enough of that has been done elsewhere already. It's that kind of thinking that led to Vietnam, Iraq, Libya, etc. etc. It's that kind of thinking that gets situations more messed up and gets more innocent people killed, and only ends up helping the wrong agendas. There's every indication that any escalation here will simply strengthen Putin's position and accomplish little - as I said, he can afford to keep escalating away and further violence only plays in his favour. Enough - this approach has had plenty of opportunities to get tested. It's a failed policy.

Again, I implore you to study history, demographics, and economics of the Ukraine before you start simplifying this.

[mapuc]

(could have missed it, when reading the post)


Do you agree on, what they say here in Denmark

Putin is the big winner of this peace treaty

Markus

[Oberon]

(could have missed it, when reading the post)


Do you agree on, what they say here in Denmark

Putin is the big winner of this peace treaty

Markus

Not really, in fact I don't think there are any major winners...Putin perhaps comes out of it a little less damaged than the rest but otherwise he's not won anything majorly.

If his goal was to stop Ukraine from joining the EU/NATO then he's only delayed it, if his goal was to keep Ukraine in the Russian fold, then he's failed, if his goal was to denude Ukraine of its major industrial centers then he has partially succeeded. He has overplayed his hand, and in return has displayed a weakness in the Russian economy to outside sanctions and falling oil prices.
Ukraine will still have to deal with the separatists who will not want to deal with them and who will want to do everything they can to deal with Russia over Kiev, and the separatists, whilst able to maintain a paramilitary force, will lose their imports from Russia when Ukraine regains control of the borders.

[Onkel Neal]

Derp, ment to write next to russia...damn brainfart
Edit: According to the Estonian ambassador to the Ukraine Sulev Kannike it will e decided tomorrow if they declare a a state of war or not.
http://uudised.err.ee/v/valismaa/b12f10f4-041e-4954-82ef-5e3a33430c9a
Source is in estonian, I don't have the time to translate it in its entirey just now, maybe in a few hours.

Careful, buddy, that could be prophesy.:cool:

Oh, and after reading up on the overthrow of the Russian backed PM, it does say that he was voted out by Parliment, right?

You know, it really is a shame the US and Europe didn't do a better job of bringing Putin and Russia into the fold. We did make an effort, we brought them into the G8, we had joint exercises, we sent them aid, and merged our space programs, but I guess it wasn't enough. I know there was a lot of psychological scarring from the implosion of the USSR and collapse of Communism (imagine 70 years of brainwashing a society into living a lie). Does the US want to invade Russia? Of course not. Europe? Hardly. It's too bad there's so much unfounded suspicion and distrust.

[August]

What if the issue is cloudy by its nature? Why the desire for black-and-white solutions in what's clearly and provably a very grey picture?

Well what's not grey is that one protagonist in this civil war is being supplied with the means to wage that war and the other is not. I would gladly oppose giving the Ukrainians the means to defend themselves if the other side would be cut off as well but that isn't going to happen now is it.

[Bilge_Rat]

Well what's not grey is that one protagonist in this civil war is being supplied with the means to wage that war and the other is not. I would gladly oppose giving the Ukrainians the means to defend themselves if the other side would be cut off as well but that isn't going to happen now is it.


:agree:

Russians are always warning the west about escalating, but.........aren't they the ones that have kept escalating the conflict for the past year?!!? :hmmm:

[Rockstar]

I'm confused, what makes those fighters for freedom and democracy of the Arab Spring that most here cheered on. So different from those nasty old Putin backed separatists trying to overthrow the Ukrainian government?


Also didnt the west make promises not to expand NATO into eastern europe in order to get at and dismantle old Soviet Nukes? Yet here NATO is throughout Eastern Europe and now looking to place fighter bases 300 miles from Moscow. Didn't the west help oust the old Ukranian President for the current one. We keep poking and poking like somehow we have the answer how everyone should live. Obviously there are former Russians in Ukraine who would rather be a part of Russia why dont we support that like we supported 'people's right to choose' in the Arab Spring?

I would say that many here are from an era when the Red Menace was to be feared and done away with. Is it that way of thinking which still contributes to how we look at what Russia is allegedly doing now? Or is it just too complicated for me to understand.

Im done rambling, and no I'm not pro anything.

[August]

:agree:

Russians are always warning the west about escalating, but.........aren't they the ones that have kept escalating the conflict for the past year?!!? :hmmm:

Yep. But we're supposed to ignore that. Basically they're saying "We're gonna continue to do as we please with this crappy little border country and if you dare try and help them resist us then we're gonna beat them up even worse."

I'm thinking doing nothing is probably exactly what we'll end up doing.

[ikalugin]

Well, what is the justification for arming Ukraine (actually that process was ongoing for a while now, for example with Romanian artillery munitions I think)? They were (before the war) one of the largest weapon exporters, they certainly have enough equipment around to fight that war. The problem is within the structural deficiencies, so sending in instructors and applying political pressure to conduct a reform (and uphold Minsk agreements while you are at it) Is a far better option.

As to the justification provided by the supporters (in the US) of supplying defensive lethal arms to Ukraine, I find it retarded not only in military-political sense (as it would provide basis for further escalation rather than freezing the conflict), but in purely military sense.
For example what is the point in supplying air defense systems to Ukraine if it already has a decent air defense network and neither side really uses air power? How would Javelin ATGMs aid the loyalists if there are no armored concentrations rolling around and the main combat arm used by both sides is artillery?
Now, sending the artillery recce systems (such as CB radars, but not the high end UAVs, as those would get ripped by the SAMs and high power ECM in the area) sort of does make sense, except that Ukraine already lost 2/3 of such systems provided due to incompetence and lack of other supporting systems (such as proper communications, and this problem is not solved by just giving them secure radios).

[ikalugin]

Hence why some view this move as intentional escalation of conflict by the US, probably to undermine the European attempts at peace making (which is consistent with the view that US initiated the conflict in the first place by installing new regime in Kiev to isolate and humiliate Russia).

I do understand however that this could be based on the need of US to fulfil some sort of internal political objectives (such as protection "good" Ukraine against "evill" Russia), as there legal binding obligation on US to do anything of the sort.

[Dowly]

@Bilge_Rat, seeing the alleged T-72B3 through not so beer soaked eyes, I agree.
That appears to be SOSNA-U sitting on top of the tank. :yep:

[ikalugin]

@Bilge_Rat, seeing the alleged T-72B3 through not so beer soaked eyes, I agree.
That appears to be SOSNA-U sitting on top of the tank. :yep:
Yes, after I have viewed the video in high resolution it does appear to be the B3s, though only a platoon of them. Considering how first batch of Armatas is being transfered to the Armed Forces this month, we would probably see more B3s in spring.

[HunterICX]

You know, it really is a shame the US and Europe didn't do a better job of bringing Putin and Russia into the fold. We did make an effort, we brought them into the G8, we had joint exercises, we sent them aid, and merged our space programs, but I guess it wasn't enough. I know there was a lot of psychological scarring from the implosion of the USSR and collapse of Communism (imagine 70 years of brainwashing a society into living a lie). Does the US want to invade Russia? Of course not. Europe? Hardly. It's too bad there's so much unfounded suspicion and distrust.

Well, it isn't something that will be gone after just 20 years and it counts for both sides too much of the generation when lies, distrust and suspicion played a big part during the cold war is still in the back of their minds and as long they occupy positions of power or influence the stance towards aren't as they should be and may be giving of a wrong signal. US and Europe isn't planning to invade Russia, it never was our intention to begin with as we kept a stance to prepare of the invasion comming from the East which was NATO's primary purpose. That still is the same if you give of the wrong signal to let former Warsaw pact countries join it so shortly after collapse of the USSR. Not that I would say they never should join NATO but I think it would've been better if it where delayed for a generation to pass before it did.

What I still find hard to not get mad about is when I see our Politicians talk about Putin and the Russians is how they can keep a straight face whilst if you look what we have done over the last few years trying to police the world we've been playing the same dirrty game as the Russians are doing now only ofcourse we don't really hide it because we make ourselfs believe we do the right thing and one glance at the Middle East...well I wouldn't say I would be proud of it what we've done over there :-?

[Oberon]

Meanwhile two Bears have been sniffing around Cornwall. It's a nice place, if they want to go there on holiday though I'd wait a few more months, it tends to be rather wet in winter.

Here's a video of another intercept, but this time from the Bear:
http://tvzvezda.ru/news/vstrane_i_mire/content/201502181902-tr6s.htm

Aaand, our Defence Secretary is angling for more money from the government:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-31528981

[ikalugin]

If they are recon variants - I can't blame them, North is horrible weather wise, especially during winter.

[Oberon]

One thing that I do ponder though, I mean think of it this way. Ukraine is Russia's Cuba. So...well, what is the difference between what Russia is doing in the Ukraine now, and what the US has spent the last forty or so years doing in Cuba? :hmmm:

[Oberon]

If they are recon variants - I can't blame them, North is horrible weather wise, especially during winter.

Polar bears do migrate, I suppose. :hmmm:

[Betonov]

Waste of fuel if you ask me.
I say that to both sides.

[Oberon]

Waste of fuel if you ask me.
I say that to both sides.

Well, Russia has got to do something with that oil if they can't flog it. :O:

[ikalugin]

You should view it as Russian Mexico rather than Cuba.

What do you think about the recent SC resolution?

[Betonov]

Well, Russia has got to do something with that oil if they can't flog it. :O:

I'll weld the cistern myself if they give some.

[Oberon]

You should view it as Russian Mexico rather than Cuba.

What do you think about the recent SC resolution?

Do you mean UNSC 2202?

It's a good start, if it can be implemented, but I don't know if the separatists will like how much control it gives Ukraine over things like the local banking, border between Ukraine and Russia. Personally I think that they would be happier if the UNSC gave them the option for a OCSE monitored vote for succession, but Ukraine would never let that fly.

I see what you mean about Mexico, but historically I figure that Cuba is the better comparison.

[ikalugin]

Read the text again, border control authority is transfered to Kiev only after other terms are fulfilled. Ie most likely - never. You could access the text in Russian (have not seen an eng version here):
http://news.kremlin.ru/ref_notes/4804

[August]

One thing that I do ponder though, I mean think of it this way. Ukraine is Russia's Cuba. So...well, what is the difference between what Russia is doing in the Ukraine now, and what the US has spent the last forty or so years doing in Cuba? :hmmm:

Not at all the same. You'll remember during the Bay of Pigs invasion that we aborted our support of the Cuban rebels at the last minute leaving them to be slaughtered on the beaches. I'm not saying that's better or worse, only different.

If you're talking about Guantanamo Bay, we took legal possession of it in 1903 under signed treaty. That's not at all the same as how Russia annexed the Crimea.

A closer match to your theory might be Panama but even then we never annexed the land but rather leased it and we did give the canal back to it's owners. Don't hold your breath for Russia doing the same...

[Oberon]

Not at all the same. You'll remember during the Bay of Pigs invasion that we aborted our support of the Cuban rebels at the last minute leaving them to be slaughtered on the beaches. I'm not saying that's better or worse, only different.

If you're talking about Guantanamo Bay, we took legal possession of it in 1903 under signed treaty. That's not at all the same as how Russia annexed the Crimea.

A closer match to your theory might be Panama but even then we never annexed the land but rather leased it and we did give the canal back to it's owners. Don't hold your breath for Russia doing the same...

But the US did spend the next decade or two doing its best to off Castro and overthrow the Cuban government through some very creative methods (including but not limited to the exploding cigar), furthermore, the Cuban rebels were supplied weapons and training by the US, but yes, admittedly they didn't get the full support that the Ukrainian rebels are receiving from Russia. Nevertheless though, the US saw a Soviet Cuba as a clear threat and took steps to undermine, isolate and deteriorate it. It didn't work out, just as Putins support of the Ukrainian separatists hasn't fully worked out in his favour, but Moscow saw the loss of Ukraine to NATO and/or the EU as a threat to Russia and acted because of this. If the reverse happened to NATO then I have no doubt that they would act in a similar manner, perhaps not quite as overt, but certainly there would be action taken.

[Betonov]

But the US did spend the next decade or two doing its best to off Castro and overthrow the Cuban government through some very creative methods (including but not limited to the exploding cigar),

I heard the CIA is preparing an exploding bear to gift Putin :03:

They tried with a ''bare chest in freezing temperature'' seeking missile, but it hit Canada.

[August]

But the US did spend the next decade or two doing its best to off Castro and overthrow the Cuban government through some very creative methods (including but not limited to the exploding cigar)

Ah, I would hardly say their best, in fact it's more like pretty much confined to an embargo.

Even the exploding cigar proposal (not a plot) is just an unproven allegation. In any case that one and the others were never put into action and even the allegations of their existence ended in 1963 (along with the president who was accused of promoting them). So, assuming you believe them you have at most 3 years of it, not the "decade or two" as you claim. In fact congress passed legislation outlawing the assassination of foreign heads of state around 1970 which is only a single decade after Castro took power.

furthermore, the Cuban rebels were supplied weapons and training by the US, but yes, admittedly they didn't get the full support that the Ukrainian rebels are receiving from Russia.Full support? More like "hardly any support at all". We never game them anything more than small arms, no heavy weapons, no electronic warfare equipment, no support troops.

As an aside I served under a guy that was standing in the door during Bay of Pigs ready to jump when the abort signal came for all US forces. He used to rag about how shoestring the whole operation was. Reminded him of Carters aborted Hostage Rescue mission in it's near lack of planning and support.

Nevertheless though, the US saw a Soviet Cuba as a clear threat and took steps to undermine, isolate and deteriorate it.That is true but they were minor steps that were soon aborted (except for the embargo and tipping off the Bolivians about Che Guevaras whereabouts). They are hardly comparable to Russias actions in Ukraine any more than a smack on the hand is comparable to a hammer blow to the back of the head.

[Onkel Neal]

But the US did spend the next decade or two doing its best to off Castro and overthrow the Cuban government through some very creative methods (including but not limited to the exploding cigar), furthermore, the Cuban rebels were supplied weapons and training by the US, but yes, admittedly they didn't get the full support that the Ukrainian rebels are receiving from Russia. Nevertheless though, the US saw a Soviet Cuba as a clear threat and took steps to undermine, isolate and deteriorate it. It didn't work out, just as Putins support of the Ukrainian separatists hasn't fully worked out in his favour, but Moscow saw the loss of Ukraine to NATO and/or the EU as a threat to Russia and acted because of this. If the reverse happened to NATO then I have no doubt that they would act in a similar manner, perhaps not quite as overt, but certainly there would be action taken.

You know, that argument works for me. The only thing I object to is the painfully awkward Soviet-style denial of their role in the fighting. Ukraine, cede the Russians their portion and be done with it.

[Oberon]

You know, that argument works for me. The only thing I object to is the painfully awkward Soviet-style denial of their role in the fighting. Ukraine, cede the Russians their portion and be done with it.

Aye, it's not really fooling anyone anymore. Trouble is, if Russia admits it 'officially' then the thumbscrews come out with the economic embargoes and the like. So it's a bit Catch-22, but yeah, the Soviet style "nothing to see here" isn't really fooling anyone, not in the west at least. I think really it's probably for internal digestion more than external.
As for Ukraine, losing the small parts of Ukraine that are currently occupied might be the best solution for it, but the question is whether it would stop there or whether more provinces around the ceded area would then rise up and we get the whole cycle begin over again.
It's a messy scenario really, not helped by the ethnic tensions in the region anyway, the east/west split is pretty big in Ukraine when it comes to ethnic make-up and political loyalties, and if the east of the Ukraine leaves then the Ukraine itself is left with no real industry and an economy that'll make Greece look like Bill Gates. :dead: Which means the EU, IMF and US will have to step in to prop up the Ukrainian economy until the political fallout settles.
As CCIP puts it, there's no black and white (or red and blue if you prefer :03:) in this situation, and the unpredictability of Russias future does not help matters much. The big rearmament program going on in Russia is taking a lot of resources to complete, which means that thanks to the embargoes, the resources are having to be sourced from elsewhere in the Russian economy, putting other programs on hold, such as social spending. In short, it's an old 'guns or butter' question and they're going for the guns...you can't really blame them too much because the ones they have right now are mostly obsolete or broken. The problem lies in how much this will undermine Putins grip on Russia, probably not too much since Russia tends to lean towards authoritarian leaders as a whole, so Putin is probably seen by quite a few as being a good figure to stand up against the old enemy in the west (and fascists in the Ukraine, of course) and keep Russia strong.
In a way, I hope Putin does stay in power, it's better the devil you know, and if Putin steps down and gets replaced with a hardliner, part of the subset of Russian politics that view Putin as being too cautious...then we're really going to be in a world of trouble.

In short, this is just the beginning, for both Novorussia and for NATO. No-one can say for certain what lies ahead. :nope:

[August]

Y'know I can't recall a military build up that didn't eventually culminate in some degree of warfare. Has their military been increasing in size or just modernizing?

[Oberon]

Y'know I can't recall a military build up that didn't eventually culminate in some degree of warfare. Has their military been increasing in size or just modernizing?

AFAIK mainly modernising. Most of their stuff hasn't really been upgraded en masse since the 1980s, you've got carriers like the Kuznetsov which really badly needs an overhaul, the Mi-24 which, although it's a capable chopper, is very outdated and looking to be replaced with the Mi-28N and Ka-52. ikalugin has more accurate coverage on the upgrades than me, but I don't think they're looking to expand...if anything it might actually be shrinking slightly but using more capable weaponry, switching slightly from the en masse approach to more kill per unit, but obviously with a force as large and hulking as Russia...it's going to take a while and a lot of rubles.

[CCIP]

Yeah, the Russian military is shrinking in size. There's drive to get rid of conscription and whoever finally signs an end to it will be very popular indeed (which means it'll most likely have to be Putin), but the Russian state is too addicted to the free manpower at the moment to let it go just yet. But the military is gradually professionalizing and reducing size. As mentioned elsewhere in this thread, Russia has learned a lot of military lessons over the past couple of decades.

It also seems a little facetious to point at Russia's alleged military buildup when the US spends more on military than everyone else in the world combined. Doesn't that logic make the US the most dangerous state in the world?

[Oberon]

To be fair to the US they're also drawing down their military size, it's just they've had a lot to begin with so it doesn't seem like a big drop but when you compare the US of the 1980s to the US of today then you'll see that numerically there's a bit of a drop. The key, as Russia is also doing, is maintain the level of military power but using less manpower to do it.

We've gone for that in a biiiiiiig way in the UK.... :dead:

[August]

It also seems a little facetious to point at Russia's alleged military buildup when the US spends more on military than everyone else in the world combined. Doesn't that logic make the US the most dangerous state in the world?

What do you think? How much foreign territory have we annexed since the 19th century?

[CCIP]

What do you think? How much foreign territory have we annexed since the 19th century?

To be fair, how much has Russia? Russian territory is significantly smaller today than it had been since the 19th century; Crimea was Russian territory until 1954. I'll even concede that one, but what other annexations do you have in mind? Russia voluntarily ceded significant territories formerly under its control to states such as Ukraine and Kazakhstan over the course of the 20th century. It withdrew back to its borders and honoured agreements with NATO vis-a-vis military presence in Europe. Throughout the 1990s and early 2000s, it made significant concessions to autonomy and self-governance for a number of its federal subjects (i.e. the various ethnic republics). So I'm not sure your point there stands, and it is certainly not supported by historical fact, regardless of what I think of the current regime.

Meanwhile the US had made extensive annexations of territory from the late 1800s through the year 1900, annexing Hawaii, followed by Puerto Rico and other Spanish territories like Guam, and de-facto annexing (and continuing to be involved in the affairs of) Cuba and the Phillippines. In some of these territories, popular referendums in the 20th century showed majority significant support to secede from the US and were vetoed by congress. And when Cuba's regime change occurred, we had the Bay of Pigs. And that's far from the only example of interference.

Anyway, I was just making a case in point there and this is rhetorical. No, I don't think the US is "the most dangerous country in the world", it's just that the logic really doesn't hold up as regards Russia, especially when its military is reducing in size and seems to be on track to phasing out conscription and writing off vast numbers of old equipment. Russia learned plenty from the conflicts in the 90s militarily, and that - not a sudden change in geopolitical goals - is what spurns the military spending and gradual doctrine change. They're largely over the whole "human wave" thing at this point and are in the process of writing off a lot of outdated equipment and scaling down manpower.

[donna52522]

Doesn't that logic make the US the most dangerous state in the world?

Which State are you talking about? We have 50, though many claim DC and Puerto Rico which would make it 52......I stick with 50

[CCIP]

And just to clarify my position for the hundredth time: I'm not trying to excuse Russian involvement and Putin is very clearly wrong here. But he's not wrong because of some kind of pathological Russian badness or a master plan to take over the world. He's wrong because he's taking advantage of turmoil to shore up his own regime, disregarding principles of civil constitutional democracy, humanitarian values, and international law. Yes, he should be stopped, by adequate and reasonable response that respects civil principles and human rights. Escalating a war is not that response.

You know who else has taken advantage of turmoil, disrespected principles of civil constitutional democracy, has escalated violence, used extensive propaganda, and has lied through their teeth about much in this situation? The current Ukrainian regime.

Two rights don't make a wrong. Two lies don't make a truth. One doesn't have to be for something just because they're against its opposite. There are still better solutions to this conflict than escalating it. But the western rhetoric is increasingly turning into some sort of exercise in self-righteous BS about saving Ukraine. Yes, Ukraine it's pretty screwed up - thanks for noticing after two decades. Could've done something about it earlier.

[ikalugin]

On the Armed Forces modernisation, it truly began post 080808 war, even though it's origins were in earlier events. It was conducted in two stages, a good book regarding the origins of the reform and the first stage of it could be found here in english:
http://www.cast.ru/eng/book/
It went in two directions:
- arms procurement. Those were/are/will be completed under two programs, GPV2015 (procurement by 2015) and more ambitious GPV2020 (procurement by 2020). Wiki articles (in Russian) provide an adequate overview:
https://ru.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%A0%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%81%D0%B8%D0%B9%D1%81%D0%BA%D 0%B0%D1%8F_%D0%B3%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%83%D0%B4%D0%B0%D1 %80%D1%81%D1%82%D0%B2%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%BD%D0%B0%D1%8 F_%D0%BF%D1%80%D0%BE%D0%B3%D1%80%D0%B0%D0%BC%D0%BC %D0%B0_%D1%80%D0%B0%D0%B7%D0%B2%D0%B8%D1%82%D0%B8% D1%8F_%D0%B2%D0%BE%D0%BE%D1%80%D1%83%D0%B6%D0%B5%D 0%BD%D0%B8%D0%B9_%D0%BD%D0%B0_2007%E2%80%942015_%D 0%B3%D0%BE%D0%B4%D1%8B
https://ru.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%A0%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%81%D0%B8%D0%B9%D1%81%D0%BA%D 0%B0%D1%8F_%D0%B3%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%83%D0%B4%D0%B0%D1 %80%D1%81%D1%82%D0%B2%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%BD%D0%B0%D1%8 F_%D0%BF%D1%80%D0%BE%D0%B3%D1%80%D0%B0%D0%BC%D0%BC %D0%B0_%D1%80%D0%B0%D0%B7%D0%B2%D0%B8%D1%82%D0%B8% D1%8F_%D0%B2%D0%BE%D0%BE%D1%80%D1%83%D0%B6%D0%B5%D 0%BD%D0%B8%D0%B9_%D0%BD%D0%B0_2011%E2%80%942020_%D 0%B3%D0%BE%D0%B4%D1%8B
The other direction was the change of the Armed Forces structure, which is primary concerned with:
- optimising command structure by removing redundant commands. During the first part of the reform we have formed Brigades, which were kept at wartime strength all the time, rather than the divisions kept at cadre strength. Now we appear to be expanding the Armed Forces by increasing the units (adding new battalions to VDV divisions, expanding regiments into brigades and brigades into divisions) and by forming new ones (in south-western and northern directions).
- increasing the proportion of professionals across the Armed Forces (and not just in the select elite units), decreasing the amount of conscripts (while maintaining the amount of people conscripted we have decreased the conscription terms).
- improving terms of service (hot showers in all of baracks, laundry machines, better uniforms, higher pay, ect).

[ikalugin]

It appears that the separatists managed to capture the last counter battery radar that US has supplied Ukrainian loyalists.
http://ic.pics.livejournal.com/zvezdochettt/14950308/59059/59059_original.jpg
Hence why I think that supplying more such systems would lead to just embaracing losses and not actual increase in capability.

[Oberon]

If I had to guess I'd say that the procurement process probably started in the aftermath of operations in Chechnya and Dagestan, using the lessons learned from there.

[ikalugin]

If I had to guess I'd say that the procurement process probably started in the aftermath of operations in Chechnya and Dagestan, using the lessons learned from there.
Not really, procurement before GPV2007-2015 was very limited and the idea was to have a small elite crew (in the VDV and constant readiness units). The 080808 war has shown the need for all round high quality Armed Forces.

[MH]

Two rights don't make a wrong. Two lies don't make a truth. One doesn't have to be for something just because they're against its opposite. There are still better solutions to this conflict than escalating it. But the western rhetoric is increasingly turning into some sort of exercise in self-righteous BS about saving Ukraine. Yes, Ukraine it's pretty screwed up - thanks for noticing after two decades. Could've done something about it earlier.

Ok it is then matter which wrong you would preferred then.
There is a historical reason why eastern courtiers prefer to stay away from Russia.
In the present things are not much different as well , Russia has nothing much to offer.
It could be a great country to trade with , in terms of its political system and attitude , peoples with western orientation and some tradition in democracy remain wary and prefer to stay away from its influence.
For two decades no thing much happened in Ukraine ,corruption was at the tops yet when it actually did happen and west took the initiative here is the conflict. ...Ukrainians deserve some credit too I think - for the initiative.
Could be you believe it is all just a power play of master overlords who brainwashed the Ukrainian people because they don't have half the IQ people in the west or Russia have, not knowing what is good for them anyway...and that is all there is to it.

Solution might be if Ukraine becomes a neutral country if it is really a matter of Ukraine becoming NATO member and not just Russians restoring their glorious empire.
Yet since there are no many volunteers they grab what they can....

Any way maybe I missed something , it would be interesting to know what solutions you would offer, a solution which could hold water.

[ikalugin]

Considering how they have exchanged one set of corrupt politicians for another set of not only corrupt but xeno patriotic politicians?

On the positive side - we have signed the contract for a bridge into (Russian) Crimea, while under Yanukovich (who did not conduct any real pro Russian policy) we were going to build a bridge into Ukrainian Crimea.

[ikalugin]

An interesting thing - the call for the UN peacekeepers (to control the border) actually undermines the Minsk agreements, as per them the transfer of border control would be completed only after Ukraine goes through constitutional reform amongst other things.

[kranz]

exhibition of captured russian gear in Kiev.
http://tinylink.net/zsk
(click on the photo, then on the arrows)

[ikalugin]

Last time I have seen that in Kiev, they just happened to be Ukrainian equipment items. SO ironic when people laugh at their own dead soldiers.

[Dowly]

What does the article identify them as, out of curiousity.

[August]

Last time I have seen that in Kiev, they just happened to be Ukrainian equipment items. SO ironic when people laugh at their own dead soldiers.

Not one dead soldier in any of those pictures. Guess what you seen ain't the same thing.

[ikalugin]

Not one dead soldier in any of those pictures. Guess what you seen ain't the same thing.
I guess you are not reading the same post I wrote.

[August]

I guess you are not reading the same post I wrote.

Something must have got lost in translation.

[mapuc]

According to a Swedish news paper fierce fighting has erupted around the city of Mariupol

It seems that all these lifted finger, sanction(s) and all these ceasefire haven't had any effect at all.

As I see it the politician in the West(EU, NATO and USA)

Have two options

1. Go back to normal relation with Russia-all this talk and sanction, seem not to have effect on Putin & Co

2. Draw a line in the sand and say enough and engage the Russian if they cross this line.

Markus

[CCIP]

2. Draw a line in the sand and say enough and engage the Russian if they cross this line.


What does this imply?

The problem with this approach is that the Russians will continue denying their involvement and presence.

A direct engagement between Russia and NATO is not possible, because a conventional war between Russia and NATO is not possible. If that happens, you can say bye bye world.

There might be some merit in drawing up a defensive pact with the Ukraine, but the problem is that Russia - though they will back off - will immediately accuse NATO of expansion and threatening their borders. And while not as immediately hazardous, what it will mean in real terms is a start of a new nuclear arms race, as Russians will be looking to rebuild and supplement sites that will be rendered ineffective by NATO forces on their border.

Option 2 is really not an option. Ukraine would have to join NATO first, and as signs point now, NATO will not take them.

[mapuc]

What does this imply?

The problem with this approach is that the Russians will continue denying their involvement and presence.

A direct engagement between Russia and NATO is not possible, because a conventional war between Russia and NATO is not possible. If that happens, you can say bye bye world.

There might be some merit in drawing up a defensive pact with the Ukraine, but the problem is that Russia - though they will back off - will immediately accuse NATO of expansion and threatening their borders. And while not as immediately hazardous, what it will mean in real terms is a start of a new nuclear arms race, as Russians will be looking to rebuild and supplement sites that will be rendered ineffective by NATO forces on their border.

Option 2 is really not an option. Ukraine would have to join NATO first, and as signs point now, NATO will not take them.


I know that, a war between Russia and the west = bye world

As a pacifistI hope for a ordinary relation with Russia

It's just how I see it.

Markus

[XabbaRus]

BBC reporting agreement from rebels to pull back heavy weapons, comes after prisoner swap

Haven't yet looked at the pictures of the weapons displayed in Kiev, but riddle me this, how come with all the spy satellites, surveillance aircraft, etc. How come we have not been shown any decent images of the heavy Russian hardware entering into eastern Ukraine? If reports are correct there loads of takes, guys, and NATO hasn't caught them in the act. I'm not denying the existence of Russian help her, merely pointing out it might not be so significant in terms of heavy hardware. The only person or group showing alleged movements from Russia is Eliot Higgins and his bellingcat website which I'm not sure about and ask a bit sceptical over.

[ikalugin]

Separatists claim that they have captured 80 tanks at Debaltsevo.

[Jimbuna]

What does this imply?

The problem with this approach is that the Russians will continue denying their involvement and presence.

A direct engagement between Russia and NATO is not possible, because a conventional war between Russia and NATO is not possible. If that happens, you can say bye bye world.

There might be some merit in drawing up a defensive pact with the Ukraine, but the problem is that Russia - though they will back off - will immediately accuse NATO of expansion and threatening their borders. And while not as immediately hazardous, what it will mean in real terms is a start of a new nuclear arms race, as Russians will be looking to rebuild and supplement sites that will be rendered ineffective by NATO forces on their border.

Option 2 is really not an option. Ukraine would have to join NATO first, and as signs point now, NATO will not take them.

I'm wondering if a new Cold War has already commenced :hmmm:

President Vladimir Putin says he will not allow anyone to get a military advantage over Russia and pledges that the country will never yield to foreign pressure. In a tough statement that comes amid tensions with the West over Ukraine, Putin warned Friday that "no one should have any illusions that it's possible to achieve military superiority over Russia or apply any kind of pressure on it." He added that the nation's military would always have an "adequate response." The Russian leader vowed that an ambitious military modernization program envisaging the deployment of hundreds of new combat jets, missiles and other weapons would be carried out. Despite an economic downturn caused by low oil prices and Western sanctions over Ukraine, Russia's military budget has risen by one-third this year.

https://screen.yahoo.com/putin-boasts-russias-military-superiority-150337387.html

[ikalugin]

That is one old statement.

I think it would be interesting to speculate now as to how the Spring campaign begins. So far both sides are ignoring Minsk agreements. Maybe EU should pressure Poroshenko into abiding those? Not that it would work, same right wing groups would be used to dismantle him, as well as the peace deal.

[Rockstar]

I'm wondering if a new Cold War has already commenced :hmmm:

.
NATO’s essential purpose is to safeguard the freedom and security of its members through political and military means.

POLITICAL - NATO promotes democratic values and encourages consultation and cooperation on defence and security issues to build trust and, in the long run, prevent conflict.

MILITARY - NATO is committed to the peaceful resolution of disputes. If diplomatic efforts fail, it has the military capacity needed to undertake crisis-management operations. These are carried out under Article 5 of the Washington Treaty - NATO’s founding treaty - or under a UN mandate, alone or in cooperation with other countries and international organizations.

NATO membership is open to “any other European state in a position to further the principles of this Treaty and to contribute to the security of the North Atlantic area.”

Maybe its just my cynical side, but it seems to me in order for NATO to exist, NATO needs a bogie man

[Jimbuna]

.


Maybe its just my cynical side, but it seems to me in order for NATO to exist, NATO needs a bogie man

Not cynical at all in my opinion, looking at the number of wars on European soil over the centuries you may well be right.

[Catfish]

Hello,

as said before, the title of this thread is at best misleading, and at worst completely wrong. The "huge pro-EU rally" is not shared by all Ukrainians, obviously not even by the majority.


The whole situation is hard to judge, with all the propaganda from all sides. I have read a lot of texts, conversed with a lot of people, and seen a lot of videos, like those from Mrs. Krone-Schmalz:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mEPdRtKP9jo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9DWcic6pgf0
(sry all in german, but "for some reason", she is never quoted or mentioned, in the anglo-saxon media).
Of course, this is old school journalism dying out, she knows what she is talking about, cares about facts and has done a lot of research, while not simply repeating others or the mainstream media.


Additionally, we were invited for a brunch last sunday in Hannover, by a former employer of mine, professor for historic studies and re-education in Germany, all post WW2.
With some relations to Russia, partaking in the "Petersburger Dialog" (a russian-german joint venture, at present threatened by Mrs Merkel, our glorious and uncritical US-loving "transatlantic" member) and some expertise on Russia, most people came to the conclusion that Russia is being assessed quite wrong, by media and politicians.

The Russians are indeed "different". Negotiations and signing of contracts can only be successful, when you converse with them, personally, AND when there exists some trust, and respect. Coming with this is to visit each other, to visit the Sauna, take some time, some personal acquaintance, and also some heavy drinking. They will always try to find out who you are, before signing any deal.
Money, or the prospect of a high financial gain alone will, by mentality, never convince a russian to sign a business transaction.

Russia has not yet a civilian society like other western nations, and the last two decades certainly did not help its development, but there are reasons for this, and Putin alone cannot be made responsible for it. Russia has some prejudice, just like the West.

In my humble opinion, it did not help international understanding and cooperation, to strictly repel the outstretched russian hand, when they asked for political and financial help to build up a new nation, after 1990. (Anone remembers what MacArthur did with Japan, after WW2?)
For the West and NATO, the case was closed. No threat anymore, so move on, ignore them from now on. This was, of course, as arrogant as it was dumb.
Also violating all treaties, and the precondition for a german unity, the NATO has expanded right on to the russian border, after 1990.

Why, at all?
Where was the reason of existence for the NATO after 1990, as a counterweight for a just crushed super power, and where is it today?
Do we need an external enemy to justify this organisation, and keep its inner structures alive?

Why does Germany and all western Europe have more trade with the transatlantic USA, than with the neighbouring Russia?
Is this even logical or desirable, with regard on history, and with regard to be on speaking terms, together?
Which or whose interests does all that even serve?


I understand that especially Poland and the baltic states has some reason, and some well-founded "prejudices", however – the Kaczyński-brothers cannot really be the glorious example. Mind you, no one says that Putin is a choirboy or a flawless democrat (as Schroeder said), but what happens in our media, is alarming. Almost all TV-anchormen in Germany are are members of the "transatlantics" organisation, this should be thought-provoking.

Greetings,
Catfish

[ikalugin]

http://m.ria.ru/defense_safety/20150110/1041996381.html#14209785940703&message=resize&relto=register&action=addClass&value=registration
S300V4 could reach out to 400km.....

[mapuc]

Earlier today there were an issue from Estonia on Danish news

They showed a military parade celebrating some 100-years-something

In this parade who was only a few hundred feet from the Russian border was the American stryker(there were 4 of them).

As the journalist said-this is sending a very strong signal to Putin.

Markus

[Catfish]

^ Hmm, and which signal do you think this could be ?

"Look here, i have the longest ?"
"You can do what you want, we will destroy you ?"

It seems the West does anything it can, to provoke Russia :hmmm:

[Dowly]

It seems the West does anything it can, to provoke Russia :hmmm:
This.

@Kranz: I am still awaiting for the translation of key points in the 'Tornado' article.
Same goes for the article of russian captured equipment show in Kiev. What are they as per the article?

Surely you can name the pieces of equipment?

[mapuc]

^ Hmm, and which signal do you think this could be ?

"Look here, i have the longest ?"
"You can do what you want, we will destroy you ?"

It seems the West does anything it can, to provoke Russia :hmmm:

Maybe you right I'm not really an expert in that area-I can only say- it does send a signal of some kind to Putin-How he interprets those signals I don't know

Maybe he got a good laugh

Markus

[Bilge_Rat]

I have to agree with that point, it is a useless and stupid provocation parading U.S. army vehicles in Narva.

Narva is 135 KM or 84 miles from downtown St.Petersburg. If you ever want to hand Putin a ready made example of the dangers of NATO expansion, this is it.

Did'nt any of those geniuses at the Pentagon bother to google the battle of Narva, where 100,000 Soviet soldiers gave their lives battling the Nazis?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Narva_(1944)

maybe the Russians should park one of their Borei ballistic missile sub off of New York harbour and see how the U.S. military likes that.

[Oberon]

maybe the Russians should park one of their Borei ballistic missile sub off of New York harbour and see how the U.S. military likes that.

They could lishen to their rock and roll mushic, while conducting misshile drillsch.

[August]

maybe the Russians should park one of their Borei ballistic missile sub off of New York harbour and see how the U.S. military likes that.

There's a very big difference between a handful of Light Attack Vehicles and a sub capable of wiping out all life in the target country within minutes.

In fact i'd equal those Strykers a lot more with the Russian bombers they keep sending over. Actually not equal since the Strykers can't carry and deploy nukes like the bombers can.

[ikalugin]

I have to agree with that point, it is a useless and stupid provocation parading U.S. army vehicles in Narva.

Narva is 135 KM or 84 miles from downtown St.Petersburg. If you ever want to hand Putin a ready made example of the dangers of NATO expansion, this is it.

Did'nt any of those geniuses at the Pentagon bother to google the battle of Narva, where 100,000 Soviet soldiers gave their lives battling the Nazis?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Narva_(1944)

maybe the Russians should park one of their Borei ballistic missile sub off of New York harbour and see how the U.S. military likes that.
Actually I was thinking about the Peter the Great/wars with Sweden when Narva was mentioned. Incidentally that was the point in history when Russia was determined to be the Great Power of Eastern Europe and not Poland or Sweden.

[ikalugin]

On topic:
http://www.vz.ru/news/2015/2/25/731438.html
this article here claims that separatists have at least 336 tube artillery pieces and 58 multiple rocket launchers (context - this article talks about artillery already moved the proper distance from contact line as per agreement and artillery to be moved soon).

[antikristuseke]

I have to agree with that point, it is a useless and stupid provocation parading U.S. army vehicles in Narva.

Narva is 135 KM or 84 miles from downtown St.Petersburg. If you ever want to hand Putin a ready made example of the dangers of NATO expansion, this is it.

Did'nt any of those geniuses at the Pentagon bother to google the battle of Narva, where 100,000 Soviet soldiers gave their lives battling the Nazis?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Narva_(1944)

maybe the Russians should park one of their Borei ballistic missile sub off of New York harbour and see how the U.S. military likes that.

It was our independance day parade where our allies participated.
Also your vision of history seems to be terribly simplistic if all you can think of is nazis vs commies. You should take a cold hard look at what actually happened to the baltic states from just before the war, during and after.

[ikalugin]

It was our independance day parade where our allies participated.
Also your vision of history seems to be terribly simplistic if all you can think of is nazis vs commies. You should take a cold hard look at what actually happened to the baltic states from just before the war, during and after.
You mean the times you were not allowed to remove Jews and serve in SS?

Ahh, I guess Soviets had plans (which were carried out via death camps) for physical elimination of local people, per General Plan West?

P.S. I personally don't having anything against parades in other countries as far as they don't glorify NAZI regime or related criminal organisations such as the SS. As I don't remember any such activities at this specific parade, I find it (by itself) more amusing than threatening (a good argument in geopolitical negotiations but still).

[antikristuseke]

The jews were removed, Estonia was declared judenfrei, a real black spot on our history, during the german occupation. But of course that was not the only attrocity commited here during those years. Not that one justifies another in any way.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_deportations_from_Estonia

Also, this Nazi glorification thin is a red herring at best and malicious trolling at worst.


The Baltic Waffen-SS Units (Baltic Legions) are to be considered as separate and distinct in purpose, ideology, activities, and qualifications for membership from the German SS, and therefore the Commission holds them not to be a movement hostile to the Government of the United States.

Tribunal declares to be criminal within the meaning of the Charter the group composed of those persons who had been officially accepted as members of the SS as enumerated in the preceding paragraph who became or remained members of the organization with knowledge that it was being used for the commission of acts declared criminal by Article 6 of the Charter or who were personally implicated as members of the organization in the commission of such crimes, excluding, however, those who were drafted into membership by the State in such a way as to give them no choice in the matter, and who had committed no such crimes.

You might also want to look up who stood guard over the trials.
There are a few who gloryfy nazis here in estonia, we call them a-holes.
Most just want to remember veterans of the war, who accoridng to hteir own memoires held no nazi sympathies but wanted to fight their percived communist threat with the means they had available in the hope of restoning Estonian independance after the war, something which did not come about until the collapse of the Soviet union. But actually looking deeper than SS=nazi takes effort, cant expect people to make that.

[ikalugin]

US policy in the 50s was a bit anti Soviet biased share we say, but Nuremberg materials are fine :)

If you condemn actions by the SS (such as active participation in various forms of genocide), if your veterans were drafted by force into the SS they shouldn't march in their uniforms, nor should you try to defend those veterans who attempt to justify their participation in that criminal organisation (as thus they become volonteers and thus they become acomplices in the crimes SS committed).

Otherwise (by the same measure) we would also have to call UPA-UNSO a fine little organisation, that was trying to build an Ukrainian nation-state.

[Oberon]

https://fbcdn-sphotos-d-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xfp1/v/t1.0-9/10968228_880556968653753_8063542325174234704_n.jpg ?oh=4a8c2fd69f10d871e3e485351a1c378e&oe=55497EF4&__gda__=1434042237_388181bac46835b33a93718c6eb649e 0

[Rockstar]

Ok gents thanks again for reminding me why NATO still exists.

[soopaman2]

One death a tragedy, one million is a statistic.

-Putin-

Americans are always biased in matters of fighting for independence, so pardon me.

[mapuc]

One death a tragedy, one million is a statistic.

-Putin-

Americans are always biased in matters of fighting for independence, so pardon me.


Wasn't it Stalin who said those famous words ?

Markus

[ikalugin]

"No one ever verifies quotes found on the Internet" - Lenin.

[Oberon]

http://i.imgur.com/LqXScvj.jpg

[Catfish]

^ :rotfl2:

[Sbygneus]

Sometimes I have a notion there are only Russians and rusophiles speaking here.
Meanwhile Nemtsov is dead. Another "triumph" of Russian democracy. Sleep well Boris Nemtsov - brave man. One of the last free-thinking in Russia.

[Bilge_Rat]

This is from Jane's. The numbers for Russian troops seem to be on the high side, but the briefers included retired General Wesley Clark:


The Potomac team was led by its director, Dr Phil Karber, a former senior official within the Office of the Secretary of Defense, and General Wesley Clark (rtd), who served as NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR) from 1997-2000.

The main points made by the briefers were as follows:

- There are currently 14,400 Russian troops on Ukrainian territory backing up the 29,300 illegally armed formations of separatists in eastern Ukraine. These units are well equipped with the latest main battle tanks, armoured personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles, plus hundreds of pieces of tube and rocket artillery. There are also 29,400 Russian troops in Crimea and 55,800 massed along the border with eastern Ukraine.

- Russian units have made heavy use of electronic warfare (EW) and what appear to be high-power microwave (HPM) systems to jam not only the communications and reconnaissance assets of the Ukrainian armed forces but to also disable the surveillance unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) operated by ceasefire monitoring teams from the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE). Russian EW teams have targeted the Schiebel Camcopter UAVs operated by the monitors and "melted the onboard electronics so that drones just fly around uncontrolled in circles before they crash to the ground", said one of the briefers at the conference.

- Russian EW, communications and other units central to their military operations are typically placed adjacent to kindergartens, hospitals or apartment buildings so that Ukrainian units are unable to launch any strikes against them without causing unacceptable and horrific collateral casualties.

- The war against Ukraine is not a "new" strategy for Moscow; the Russian general staff has been preparing for Ukraine-type combat operations since 1999.

- The Russian military's Zapad 2013 exercise (the word 'Zapad' meaning 'West' in Russian to denote that it was an operation designed to practice operations against NATO) was a dress-rehearsal for parts of the Ukraine campaign and future potential operations against the Baltic states. The exercise involved 76,300 total troops, 60% of which were drawn from the same Russian Interior Ministry (MVD) units that were used in the Chechen conflicts of the 1990s.

- Russia's information warfare campaign includes budgeting for the state-run Russia Today network (more than USD300 million per annum) and support for pro-Russian NGOs (USD100 million per annum).

Overall, the Ukrainian military continues to be severely disadvantaged by not being equipped with a list of the items that are becoming well known to those watching the current situation in eastern Ukraine: secure communications systems; anti-tank guided weapons with tandem warheads; counter-battery radars; UAVs for both reconnaissance and strike missions; and the ability to stream multiple intelligence sources into centralised command centres to get inside the 'decision loop' of the Russian-backed forces.



http://www.janes.com/article/49469/update-russia-s-hybrid-war-in-ukraine-is-working?utm_campaign=%5BPMP%5D_PC5308_J360%204.3.1 5%20%28Copy%29_KV_Deployment&utm_medium=email&utm_source=Eloqua&elqaid=11862&elqat=1&elqTrackId=ddcf7a53a25d4fe9996cbc6bcc0b8175

[Oberon]

What does Russia gain from the Baltic states? :hmmm:

[CCIP]

To be fair, excercises and existing military plans don't always mean intention to invade. Pretty sure the US still have their plan to invade Canada.

At this point, Russia should know better than try to get involved with the Baltic states. The motivation, of course, would be to protect the Russian speakers there, but since those are NATO members, it probably is more a just-in-case/doomsday scenario than anything.

[Onkel Neal]

Sometimes I have a notion there are only Russians and rusophiles speaking here.
Meanwhile Nemtsov is dead. Another "triumph" of Russian democracy. Sleep well Boris Nemtsov - brave man. One of the last free-thinking in Russia.

Yeah, it seems that way. Probably the people who are not Putin apologists simply don't see any point in debating the issue any more. Nemtsov is the latest in a long line of people who have been murdered in Russia when they cross the dictator (http://www.foxnews.com/world/2015/03/04/crossing-kremlin-nemtsov-latest-in-long-line-putin-critics-to-wind-up-dead/). Until the Russian people stop allowing this, it will continue.

[CCIP]

Wait, so by that logic, a requirement for having a reasonable opinion on the topic is to be non-Russian and a russophobe?

Check your bias, sir :(

As said many times, there's unfortunately propaganda on all sides of the conflict. Buying into one side's over the other's doesn't make a perspective any more valid. As for Nemtsov, I recommend my thread on the topic.

[Oberon]

Just because people aren't willing to give Ukraine a free ride, doesn't mean that they are pro-Putin... :hmmm:

[August]

Probably the people who are not Putin apologists simply don't see any point in debating the issue any more.

This ^

[Oberon]

http://www.thecommonsenseshow.com/siteupload/2013/07/you-are-with-us-or-the-terrorists.png

[CCIP]

^yup

If anything, it's the pro-Ukrainian side where I see an unwillingness to debate, and only a willingness to sloganize. Minds have obviously made up and heels dug in.

And I think bringing Nemtsov into this out of nowhere is yet another example of non-debate tactics - but I bet that most people here haven't even heard of Nemtsov or cared what he had to say until he was suddenly dead. I'm sorry, but that's both unfair and disrespectful. Besides, he's Russian, so who cares what he said?

[Onkel Neal]

Yeah, touched a nerve.

Sorry, the man had a concern about the direction of this discussion, and I felt it was important to let him know not everyone sees the emergence of a fascist government in Russia in muddled shades of grey.

But, hey, thanks for the Bush gif, that makes it better :D

[Bilge_Rat]

^yup

If anything, it's the pro-Ukrainian side where I see an unwillingness to debate, and only a willingness to sloganize. Minds have obviously made up and heels dug in.



Sloganise about what exactly?

about the fact that Russia has invaded them, annexed Crimea and now has as many as 14,000 ground troops in East Ukraine?

just because Russians keep repeating they have no troops there and the West wants to make us look bad, you believe them?

[Torplexed]

What does Russia gain from the Baltic states? :hmmm:

A land bridge restored to the Kalingrad Oblast? Although I guess you would only need Lithuania for that. :D

[CCIP]

Sloganise about what exactly?

about the fact that Russia has invaded them, annexed Crimea and now has as many as 14,000 ground troops in East Ukraine?

just because Russians keep repeating they have no troops there and the West wants to make us look bad, you believe them?

I think I've repeatedly made criticisms and not apologies of what Putin's regime are doing, sooo, if you think I believe them and their propaganda, you're certainly wrong!

The problem is that it ends up distracting away from other issues there. Like the fact that Ukraine's government is corrupt, awful, and pandering to some very dubious groups and nobody should be surprised at attempts by the East to secede from it. Or the fact that beyond the power plays and war, there is also a serious economic and demographic problem that everybody is forgetting about. Everybody that proclaims to be on the "right side" of this, of supporting Ukraine in a fight against Russian aggression, seems to have deluded themselves with the idea that Cold War thinking and Cold War proxy tactics will solve this problem. It didn't in the Cold War, and it won't now.

I don't believe RT and Pravda for a second. However, I ask that others at least give a token consideration to alternatives before they start saying that somebody who is a "russophile" or Russian should have no valid opinion here. That's a very offensive and borderline xenophobic thing to say.

Note, by the way, that any time I brought something to attention in this thread, I always used Western media sources. That should say something about what I think of the Russian official stance on the conflict.

[Oberon]

Yeah, touched a nerve.

Sorry, the man had a concern about the direction of this discussion, and I felt it was important to let him know not everyone sees the emergence of a fascist government in Russia in muddled shades of grey.

But, hey, thanks for the Bush gif, that makes it better :D

I think it was actually a png. :O:
No, I understand Sbygneus's concerns, but to automatically tar people as 'Putin apologists' because we don't necessarily agree with the Ukrainian stance in this current conflict is a gross oversimplification, and actually pretty insulting. :03:


A land bridge restored to the Kalingrad Oblast? Although I guess you would only need Lithuania for that. :D

Fair point, although I'm not sure that war with NATO is worth that land bridge...but then again, if I were in the Chancellery in 1939 I'd say that I'm not sure that war with France and England was worth opening a corridor to Danzig... :/\\!!

[Bilge_Rat]

I think I've repeatedly made criticisms and not apologies of what Putin's regime are doing, sooo, if you think I believe them and their propaganda, you're certainly wrong!

.

sorry, drinking and posting is never a good mix. :arrgh!:

[Onkel Neal]

I think it was actually a png. :O:
No, I understand Sbygneus's concerns, but to automatically tar people as 'Putin apologists' because we don't necessarily agree with the Ukrainian stance in this current conflict is a gross oversimplification, and actually pretty insulting. :03:



png, D'oh! :k_confused:

I apologize if I came off as insulting, I do not mean to be. :-? But I have to say, in my individual opinion, that regardless of what Ukraine is, the Russian people have a growing problem on their hands. And gifs, pngs, and clever retorts do not do much to illustrate that. Russia needs help, they need a government that allows opposition and a media that is not state run, that will ask important questions and not spread government propaganda.




The problem is that it ends up distracting away from other issues there. Like the fact that Ukraine's government is corrupt, awful, and pandering to some very dubious groups and nobody should be surprised at attempts by the East to secede from it. Or the fact that beyond the power plays and war, there is also a serious economic and demographic problem that everybody is forgetting about. Everybody that proclaims to be on the "right side" of this, of supporting Ukraine in a fight against Russian aggression, seems to have deluded themselves with the idea that Cold War thinking and Cold War proxy tactics will solve this problem. It didn't in the Cold War, and it won't now.

I don't believe RT and Pravda for a second. However, I ask that others at least give a token consideration to alternatives before they start saying that somebody who is a "russophile" or Russian should have no valid opinion here. That's a very offensive and borderline xenophobic thing to say.


Ok, we are all glad to hear from Russians here, this is something I will welcome and back, the free expression of opinion. I am very happy to provide an outlet for Russians (and Ukrainians, etc) on Subsim.

I am not trying to speak for Sbygneus, but it is possible that many people here feel that if they express an opinion that does not follow the party line, they get ridiculed instead of having their points debated or countered with evidential arguments. CCIP, you go a long way to examine an issue like this as fairly as possible. I think we all see that. :salute:

[Oberon]

png, D'oh! :k_confused:

I apologize if I came off as insulting, I do not mean to be. :-? But I have to say, in my individual opinion, that regardless of what Ukraine is, the Russian people have a growing problem on their hands. And gifs, pngs, and clever retorts do not do much to illustrate that. Russia needs help, they need a government that allows opposition and a media that is not state run, that will ask important questions and not spread government propaganda.


Fair point, sometimes I just use a gif or a png when I've run out of energy to make a point, perhaps I should rein that in a little.

Russia does need help, this is true, and I do feel sorry for the people who protested on the streets of Moscow the other day in the wake of Nemetsovs murder. They remind me a little of the young hopefuls who cheered in the streets in Cairo and gathered in Tahrir Square, full of hope and dreams for a more peaceful and democratic government, only to have their revolution hijacked first by the Muslim Brotherhood and then overthrown again by the military, thus putting them straight back where they started. :/\\!!

Of course, the problem that many of us have is that we have a biased viewpoint, we are westerners, we didn't grow up in Russia, we didn't grow up there during the Cold War, although some of us did visit (I know you did Neal, and so did Niki) and so it's hard for us to get a viewpoint that is not influenced by our upbringing. We find it difficult to understand when people support a dictator, or turn away from democracy. We try to introduce our values to other people and we're confused, disappointed and sometimes angry when they do not adopt them. What we see of Russia and what the people who live there see is two different things, but certainly the direction that the Russian government is going is something that concerns me, and should concern any Russian citizen. However, one has to look at the longer history of Russia, it's had...what...a year or two of democracy, between the creation of the Russian Federation and the 1993 crisis. Before that it was the USSR and before that it was a monarchy with somewhat authoritarian values. It hasn't had the centuries of democratic institutions that the US has had, but instead has drifted from one authoritarian insitution to another through periods of crisis and conflict. Although, this being said, one can say that the rule of Peter the Great, and Catherine the Great was probably the closest Russia got to the sort of governments of the west. :hmmm:

[Alex]

Russia needs democracy and all. And since we don't have much more to say, let's not forget about the fact defending rights of homosexuals is fashionable these days in the West, so let's make fun of Putin and Russia for being a sexual dictature. We're the international policeman after all.

Yet being gay is not a crime in Russia, as far as I know, while homosexuality remains a felony in some of the states of the US and *bang* ouch, what's that, okay I shut up. :88)

And when it comes to that incredibly great Nemtsov guy (http://henrymakow.com/2015/03/nemtsov-sacrificed.html) everyone of us yankees appears to be so familiar with - who would have thought the passing of that guy I had never heard of last month would make me regret I didn't purchase Kleenex shares some weeks ago - well, personally I remember someone saying something some time ago (http://youtu.be/69Qwju5nJ-w)... http://b8.uk.imgsrc.ru/c/compdrag/0/41904500Ulv.jpg

But well. :oops:

[Sbygneus]

I am not trying to speak for Sbygneus, but it is possible that many people here feel that if they express an opinion that does not follow the party line, they get ridiculed instead of having their points debated or countered with evidential arguments. :salute:

This is exactly what I feel. Thank you for puting it in right words.

Do I insult Russians? I dont know. But I find plain stupidity of Western politicians in approach to Putin very insulting.

Dont you guys understand? What Putin will take in the Ukraine will become New Russia. And no force on Earth will ever take it back.

Putin just got in, put the pistol on the table and said: lets talk. Thats how it looks. And I am called rusophobe? Why, do I have any reason?

[Oberon]

This is exactly what I feel. Thank you for puting it in right words.

Do I insult Russians? I dont know. But I find plain stupidity of Western politicians in approach to Putin very insulting.

Dont you guys understand? What Putin will take in the Ukraine will become New Russia. And no force on Earth will ever take it back.

Putin just got in, put the pistol on the table and said: lets talk. Thats how it looks. And I am called rusophobe? Why, do I have any reason?

Not going to disagree, and I think that he's made a mistake in the Ukraine, and that he's likely regretting it as the Russian economy stalls and his reputation as the man who saved Russias economy from the years of neglect under Gorbachev and Yeltsin is threatened.
I have no doubt that when the dust from this settles, Ukraine will be split in two and one half will go to Russia. The thing is though, there's a not insignificant amount of people in that area who want this to happen, who consider the government in Kiev to be a) illegitimate and b) not representative of them. The more that Kiev fights to keep them, the more they'll want to leave. It's Catch-22 really and that's a big part of what started this civil war. Russia saw an opportunity for keeping the Ukraine unstable, keeping NATO and EU out and its border secure, and it took it.

I can fully understand why you're worried, you are from Poland are you not? That's a lot of bad history with Russia there, even before 1939, likewise the people of the Baltic States. I don't blame you at all, and I certainly don't think you're a Russophobe, the people of Poland and the Baltic states as far as I'm aware have no beef against the people of Russia itself, but as always it's the leaders who cause the trouble, or in this case, the people controlling the leaders.

Rationally I can't see Russia moving against Poland or the Baltic States, or any NATO nation. If I had to throw a dart at the dartboard and guess where the next flare up outside of the Ukraine will be (and bear in mind [pardon the pun] that the Ukrainian war will go on for another five or six years at least) I'd wager that it would be Belarus, and probably in a similar manner to the Ukrainian crisis. Civil unrest, government overthrow, 'oppressed ethnic minority', etc, etc.

[Sbygneus]

Rationally I can't see Russia moving against Poland or the Baltic States, or any NATO nation. If I had to throw a dart at the dartboard and guess where the next flare up outside of the Ukraine will be (and bear in mind [pardon the pun] that the Ukrainian war will go on for another five or six years at least) I'd wager that it would be Belarus, and probably in a similar manner to the Ukrainian crisis. Civil unrest, government overthrow, 'oppressed ethnic minority', etc, etc.

I agree. But my bet/dart is for Moldova.

[Oberon]

I agree. But my bet/dart is for Moldova.

Good point, and Transdneister, I'd forgotten about that flashpoint. With Odessa in pro-Russian hands, it makes for a good jumping off point. Still a bit difficult to access though since most of it is surrounded by western Ukraine, but it's possible. :hmmm:

[Betonov]

I agree. But my bet/dart is for Moldova.

My former co-worker is from Moldova. They actually wish that the Russians would come.

They're poorer than Ukraine, too obscure for Europe to take notice and the only way forward they see is going back into the Union, sorry, Federation

[mapuc]

Found this on a friend friends wall

Found it...well...interesting...

I have problem believing it

http://australianvoice.livejournal.com/5803.html

Markus

[Oberon]

Found this on a friend friends wall

Found it...well...interesting...

I have problem believing it

http://australianvoice.livejournal.com/5803.html

Markus

Me too

[mapuc]

Maybe there is a little peace in Eastern Ukraine, this our Western leaders seem not to have noticed..they continue to move equiptment near the Russian border

(video)
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-31828111


11 March 2015 Last updated at 07:09 GMT
NATO warships have begun military training exercises in the Black sea, in international waters off the coast of Bulgaria.


http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-31813939
Hundreds of US military vehicles have arrived in the Baltic states and are to stay in Europe, in a mission to reassure Nato allies unsettled by Russia's actions in Ukraine.

Markus

[antikristuseke]

When your next door neigbour escalates violent rethoric to actual violent land grabs preparations are in order, wouldn't you say?

[CCIP]

Yeah, it's pretty inevitable at this point. You can't say it's not reactive.

And anyway, the sad truth is, I don't think the West believes in this ceasefire any more than Russia does, despite what both sides may say.

[August]

When your next door neigbour escalates violent rethoric to actual violent land grabs preparations are in order, wouldn't you say?

:yep:

[mapuc]

I'm sorry that I stated my opinion about this..what do I know I'm not an expert on this, I can only read the news here in the west and from Russia(English of course)

And I found the article interesting and I think that until we know 100 % for sure, we should be a little "Defensive" and not swinging our fist infront of the face of Putin..

Markus

[antikristuseke]

We just see the same events from different perspectives and that is perfectly fine, no need for any apologies. The reaction to me seems perfectly defensive because if the unthinkable happens and there is a war between NATO and Russia there will be need for armored units on the front line (hint: the country I live in will be part of the front lines). In case of that war the only thing that needs to happen to cut the land route to the Baltic states is for Kaliningrad oblast to be linked up with Belarus, to stop that from happening immediately there will be need for heavier units on the groud ready to respons with some speed. Ofcourse that is just one of the reasons.
I really hope that it does not come to this, I'd much rather start a family and live in peace than be forced to take up arms, but that is beyond my control.

[CCIP]

For balance, since Nemtsov's murder has been mentioned in regard to Ukraine, let's make note of the fact that 5 former Yanukovich officials, mostly regional pro-Russian governors, have been found dead in the Ukraine since the end of January (4 of them in just the last couple of weeks):
http://m.bbc.com/news/world-europe-31855700

Although suicide is suggested in all of the cases, it seems awfully coincidental for so many people in similar positions to decide to kill themselves all at once :hmmm:

[mapuc]

This was scary to read.

http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2015/03/15/world/europe/ap-eu-russia-crimea.html?_r=0

Markus

[Oberon]

This was scary to read.

http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2015/03/15/world/europe/ap-eu-russia-crimea.html?_r=0

Markus

Not entirely surprising, but more politically motivated than military. Crimea and Ukraine isn't worth cracking open the Topol-Ms for, but it's a sabre that can be rattled, and Russia likes to do it from time to time, because they can. If Obama had said such a thing he'd have been impeached in two seconds flat, likewise his predecessor. Dictators or the puppets of them can make comments like that as part of their efforts to appear 'strong' to their public against all the threats that they have told their public about which is the reason why sacrifices have to be made to keep the country strong.
It works in most, if not all, countries. :yep:

[Sbygneus]

It would more elegant and effective if Russian authorities scared us no more than once a year with their missiles. Otherwise they are just ridiculous. Putin tried to scare Poland several Times in the last few years with Iskanders being depolyed in Kaliningrad Oblast.

I find the buckup that Putin still has in Russian society much more scary then missiles. I dont reckognise this nation any more. Maybe I was wrong about them all the time.

[CCIP]

(double post)

[CCIP]

Here's the thing: Russians are people. Like most people, they like food on the table and a sense of security. There's no mystery to Putin's popularity among a majority of Russians - so far, his regime has done a better job of out than any immediate alternative. Take away that security, and the support will eventually melt away. And it will.

Otherwise, this is exactly what I'm talking about with obsolete nation-state thinking - dividing people into "us" and "them", generalizing a multi-ethnic, extremely complex society into something you can be right or wrong about, ascribing mythical qualities to banal economic realities. The problem is that when you replace "Russia" with "the west" and "Iskanders in the Kaliningrad oblast" with "F-15s in Lithuania", you begin to see the mindset of Russians who are also wondering if they ever knew the West or something.

Nationalist thinking is a cancer. The only reason that Russia seems more dangerous with it than the Ukraine or Poland is that Russia is bigger and has nuclear weapons. Otherwise it's all the same to me. As to the Ukraine - and let's not forget this discussion is still about the Ukraine - it's still important to remember that nationalist thinking and inability to solve problems of federalization and economics is what got them there.

[Sbygneus]

Here's the thing: Russians are people. Like most people, they like food on the table and a sense of security. There's no mystery to Putin's popularity among a majority of Russians - so far, his regime has done a better job of out than any immediate alternative. Take away that security, and the support will eventually melt away. And it will.

Otherwise, this is exactly what I'm talking about with obsolete nation-state thinking - dividing people into "us" and "them", generalizing a multi-ethnic, extremely complex society into something you can be right or wrong about, ascribing mythical qualities to banal economic realities. The problem is that when you replace "Russia" with "the west" and "Iskanders in the Kaliningrad oblast" with "F-15s in Lithuania", you begin to see the mindset of Russians who are also wondering if they ever knew the West or something.

Nationalist thinking is a cancer. The only reason that Russia seems more dangerous with it than the Ukraine or Poland is that Russia is bigger and has nuclear weapons. Otherwise it's all the same to me. As to the Ukraine - and let's not forget this discussion is still about the Ukraine - it's still important to remember that nationalist thinking and inability to solve problems of federalization and economics is what got them there.

Now you are generalising. I talk about my doubts and/or fears. That doesnt necessary make me nationalist. Also, critisising someone doesnt make me his enemy.
As you said we are all people. If someone threats me with big stick I react. And its Russian stick now. Where do you see a place for nationalism I dont know.
When I see the shrinking crowd of Russian opposition it makes me worry, thats all.

I dont forget that this topic is about Ukraine. To remind it, I would like to repeat obvious fact. It is Russia who grabs the land.

[Onkel Neal]

It's been mighty quiet in Ukraine, have they managed to settle things down a bit over there?

I see the German leader showed up out of respect for the big ceremony.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-32682063

[Betonov]

Our global hypocrites of a government choose to boycott.
Spineless worms.

[Catfish]

It was the lowest common denominator, they would agree upon.
No partaking in the parade, no military greeting, and nothing else.

What the West did to lead to the Ukraine crisis, as well as the russian action, is nothing to write home about.


Someone said national thinking is a cancer. I agree, the concept of nations is obsolete. But with the "intelligence" of man as a species, the dumb patriotic right wingers will always win. Everywhere.
And man does not live long enough, to learn.

It really would be nice to leave and go somewhere far away, and let them who want kill themselves. And some religious weirdoes did just that a long time ago .. good those times are gone..
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2005/oct/07/iraq.usa
:O:

[Oberon]

It really would be nice to leave and go somewhere far away, and let them who want kill themselves.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mars_Society

[Rockstar]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mars_Society


I think no matter how far away one goes to get away from it all. Murder and mayhem will soon catch up. Though it is possible Mars might make it a little hard for others to follow you. :)

Friedrich Ritter and Dore Strauch went away to Floreana Island in 1929. Unfortunately not long after human nature reared its ugly head there too.

[CCIP]

It's been mighty quiet in Ukraine, have they managed to settle things down a bit over there?

I see the German leader showed up out of respect for the big ceremony.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-32682063

Unfortunately I doubt it's going to calm down. There are still worrying signs of a spring/summer offensive that both sides are readying for. Just yesterday the current separatist leader announced that he is "ready to crush the Ukrainian army" if they decide to break the ceasefire and attack. If they indeed are, it wouldn't be above them to use a provocation to deliver such a "crushing". Same goes for the other side, which I hardly trust any more, especially if they're actually bolstered by Western promises of help.

[Bilge_Rat]

I take all the predictions of an upcoming Russian/Rebel offensive with a huge grain of salt. Notice that all these "predictions" are coming from the Ukrainian government and are then parroted by NATO as gospel.

Many in the Ukrainian government do not want the Minsk ceasefire to work and are still pressing the US/EU for weapons and additional sanctions so they can continue the war and recapture East Ukraine.

Putin basically has what he wants, a "frozen conflict", no foreseeable entry of Ukraine in the EU/NATO, Crimea back in Russia. There is no need to continue the offensive westward.

Of course, I could be wrong, Putin is unpredictable.

[CCIP]

Also on point of leaks, Russian media outlet RBC has been starting to publish excerpts and summaries of the yet-unreleased document that was being prepared by the murdered politician Nemtsov at the time of his death. Nemtsov's sources alleged the following:

- No fewer than 150 Russian soldiers died in the fighting during August 2014

- Approximately 70 Russian soldiers (including 17 airborne troops from Ivanovo) were killed in the January-February fighting near Debaltsevo

- Approximately 53 billion roubles ($ 1 billion) from the Russian budget has been spent on the war in southeast Ukraine in the course of 10 months

- Approximately 80 billion roubles ($ 1.5 billion) from the Russian budget was spent on refugees from the conflict

- Estimates by economists of the cost to everyday Russians from the annexation of Crimea include approximately 2 trillion roubles ($ 39 billion) in terms of lost actual wages, and 750 billion roubles ($ 15 billion) in terms of wiped out savings.

(source in Russian: http://top.rbc.ru/politics/12/05/2015/5550b8869a794770c68a8207 )

[Oberon]

RBC shut down due to an previously unknown breach of tax laws in five...four...three...

[CCIP]

The OpenRussia site, run by Khodorkovsky as far as I know, has published the full report which was being prepared by Nemtsov before his death, titled "Putin. War." (in Russian) here: https://openrussia.org/post/view/4803

Some of the main highlights:

-Firstly, it lays the blame chiefly on Putin and his staff for the war, suggesting that the main motivation for escalating the conflict has been electoral politics. The goal is to secure Putin's power base by effectively radicalizing most of the Russian population around a new nationalist agenda. It suggests that the media has been instrumental in setting the agenda - and that the consolidation of media under government control in Russia over the last couple of years is related to this.

-Secondly, it reports that the Russian military personnel involved in the takeover of Crimea had been briefed and dispatched from the start of February 2014, preceding the violent turn of events on the Maidan in Kiev. That is to say, the report alleges that Russia's annexation was not a reaction to the violence in the Ukraine, but was executed at a pre-planned time.

-Thirdly, it suggests that Russian forces had saved the separatists in the Donetsk region by intervening directly in August 2014 - up until then, the Ukrainian army had been making significant progress in their advance on the separatists, whose efforts were collapsing. The report alleges that this rapid intervention was decisive, and was the only way that the separatist structure has survived. The report also notes that the majority of current separatist leadership, which has changed quite a bit since its early days, are Russian citizens. It thus concludes that the separatist side is effectively under Russian control, and has been since at least fall 2014. It further alleges that all key decisions and information releases by rebel leadership are managed directly by the Kremlin.
The report goes on to cite numerous interviews with separatist and Russian officials, as well as stories of soldiers captured on Ukrainian territory.

-Fourthly, the report alleges that the so-called "volunteers" fighting on the separatist side are better called "mercenaries", and are paid $1000-1500 per month. This is in excess of the average Russian monthly wage of approximately $620. The report suggests that this money comes directly from the Russian federal budget.

-Fifthly (and I expected this one!), the report details a significant role played by Kadyrovites (i.e. militia controlled by the Chechen president Ramzan Kadyrov) in sustaining the separatist effort. This probably has significant implications in Nemtsov's murder, which has been blamed on Kadyrov (to nobody's surprise). Unlike other high-ranking members of the current Russian regime, Kadyrov has publicly admitted sending armed fighters to the Donbass. The report notes that he has issued lavish awards to many members of his security forces for their participation in the Ukrainian conflict.

-Sixthly, the report looks into the shooting down of MH17, and agrees with findings that it was shot down by the Buk M1. It also points to the previously-suggested launch site from the village of Torez, which was under separatist control at the time of the shooting.

Finally, it also looks at the economic and human costs of the conflict, which were mentioned before.

[Dmitry Markov]

Firstly - seems like authors of this "report" have some strange logic - reading this one may consider that reunification of Crimea and Ukrainian civil war either has no relations with coup d'etats in Kiev or that it was our "evil" President who financed "revolution" in Kiev to have a starting point which would allow us to return Crimea... And then again majority of Crimeans voted for reunification with Russia whether Nemtsov and his team liked it or not.

Secondly this work seems to be a western press-oriented "product" rather than anything beeing able to interest our people. To be the latter it should have been done more thoroughly and include any materials of real quality but "interviews with tankists from Buryatia" which were chewen aloft and alow some months ago.

The way this thing is done it won't make me run around tearing my hairs out of my head and crying "God!What have I done! Why have I voted for Putin?" :-)

Thirdly - If I were Ramzan Ahmatovich (which I am not) rumors of third-hand wannabe-politician preparing a "report" of such a "quality" wouldn't make me move a toe, not to mention planning an untidy assassination with a picture of a Kremlin in a background. Let's not think a Head of Chechen Republic is that strange. It should have been some business or some personal affront ( Caucasians never forgive an affronts) that was a real purpose of Nemtsov's lot.


Just some thoughts

[XabbaRus]

I haven't read the report so won't comment. However as far as Kadyrov is concerned, I would be more worried about him than anything Ukraine can throw at Russia. Kadyrov is a nut and I've said this before, he cannot be controlled. I think members of the Russian elite and the FSB have realised this now, hence his henchmen being lifted for the Nemtsov murder.

I'm actually curious how long Kadyrov will be around if and when Putin steps down?

[mapuc]

Sorry to dig this thread up, I thought why start a new thread when there already are one about the same issue.

Found this article in a Danish news paper with a link to an English version of it

The heat seems to get hotter

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/05/22/us-russia-usa-warning-idUSKBN0O72BW20150522?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews&utm_source=twitter

Markus

[Aktungbby]

^Just to bring it 'up to speed' background wise:up:: http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/for-alleged-russian-hacker-a-visit-to-amsterdam-is-a-costly-trip/2015/01/30/1e240c96-a33c-11e4-9f89-561284a573f8_story.html (http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/for-alleged-russian-hacker-a-visit-to-amsterdam-is-a-costly-trip/2015/01/30/1e240c96-a33c-11e4-9f89-561284a573f8_story.html) & http://krebsonsecurity.com/2013/07/hacker-ring-stole-160-million-credit-cards/#more-21899 (http://krebsonsecurity.com/2013/07/hacker-ring-stole-160-million-credit-cards/#more-21899)

[mapuc]

Wasn't sure If I should dig the old Ukraine-thread up and continue from the last entering or start a new thread-if moderators think it belongs to the Ukraine thread then feel free to merge it.

Back to story. Maybe we don't hear so much about Ukraine these days, nevertheless the two superpowers military build-up continues

http://washington.cbslocal.com/2015/06/23/ash-carter-military-russia-nato/

These are responses to Russia’s provocations,” Carter told CBS News while in Estonia, adding that it was “aggressive rhetoric, aggressive behavior – the kind of thing that doesn’t belong in a Europe” of today

Markus

[Oberon]

Can't be too much longer before one side or the other starts the much vaunted 'summer offensive'.

[Rockstar]

I used to think it was NATO breaking some agreement not to enlarge that was poking at the Bear. But after reading this, it appears no such promises were made.


http://csis.org/files/publication/twq09aprilkramer.pdf

[yubba]

:nope::nope::nope::nope::nope:,,,http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/jun/23/marines-may-hitch-deployment--foreign-ships-d/ man it didn't take long to take that story down,,, well try here,,,http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2015/06/21/marines-amphibious/28935549/ I hope Russia kicks our commie butts that will learn us for crying over an old battle flag,, while our cities burn.

[em2nought]

:nope::nope::nope::nope::nope:,,,http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/jun/23/marines-may-hitch-deployment--foreign-ships-d/ man it didn't take long to take that story down,,, well try here,,,http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2015/06/21/marines-amphibious/28935549/ I hope Russia kicks our commie butts that will learn us for crying over an old battle flag,, while our cities burn.

It would help if your newest amphibs were built to carry landing craft https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_America_%28LHA-6%29

[Oberon]

.

Wondered when you'd show up again.


I used to think it was NATO breaking some agreement not to enlarge that was poking at the Bear. But after reading this, it appears no such promises were made.


http://csis.org/files/publication/twq09aprilkramer.pdf

Can't say I'm wholly surprised, would have been an odd thing to agree to...officially at least.
That being said, putting yourself in Russias shoes, with a military that's falling apart, an economy based solely on oil and countless internal concerns, your rival for the past 60 years expanding to your border isn't exactly going to be received well. I mean, historically Russia likes to put at least half a country between itself and its enemies, preferably more.
The expansion of NATO could have been handled better than it was, but that's how it goes, the question now is how much involvement NATO and EUFOR should consider having in the Ukraine and surrounding territories. Particularly in a climate where most of the members of NATO cannot actually afford the militaries that they're fielding. :dead:

[ikalugin]

It is all about the cold war resolution and post cold war security system.

The later was inherently ubstable due to the rosy ideas it was built upon and last time global security system failed horribly was the WW2.

[HunterICX]

The expansion of NATO could have been handled better than it was, but that's how it goes, the question now is how much involvement NATO and EUFOR should consider having in the Ukraine and surrounding territories. Particularly in a climate where most of the members of NATO cannot actually afford the militaries that they're fielding. :dead:

Makes one wonder why we wish (well our politicians that is) to increase the NATO sphere of influence towards the Russian border whilst we did nothing but disarm ourselves not long after the collapse of the Soviet Union. :hmmm:

[Schroeder]

Makes one wonder why we wish (well our politicians that is) to increase the NATO sphere of influence towards the Russian border whilst we did nothing but disarm ourselves not long after the collapse of the Soviet Union. :hmmm:
Since when is anything that is decided by NATO or EU based on logic?:/\\!!

[mapuc]

It not only the military build-up even the exercises are more frequently and more realistic than ever before.

In a recently released report-The Coming Storm from cepa.

http://www.cepa.org//sites/default/files/styles/medium/Baltic%20Sea%20Security%20Report-%20%282%29.compressed.pdf

Said a huge Russian exercise in March was a an exercise on taking, Gotland, Åland, Bornholm and northern part of Sweden or Norway.

I didn't know that Russian exercises are more of a offensive role and a NATO exercise is more of a defensive role

Markus

[Oberon]

I'm still not convinced that Russia is going to go about invading the Baltic States, NATO members.

[mapuc]

I'm still not convinced that Russia is going to go about invading the Baltic States, NATO members.

First I heard about in the News then I read about it online in a Swedish News paper.

Here an expert said these exercise is nothing more than a psychological game and we should not overreacting. We should however take the threat to the Baltic States serious.

Markus

[CCIP]

Can't be too much longer before one side or the other starts the much vaunted 'summer offensive'.

Arguably it'd already started, albeit in a limited/localized way. There have already been a couple of major spikes in the fighting.

As for the Baltic states, honestly I think the Russian regime knows better than to try and take a bite out of them - but it's to their advantage to play up the threat, so that they tie up NATO forces and manage tension effectively.

[ikalugin]

I heard Ukraine has passed the law legalising foreighn peacekeepers. Possible overt NATO intervention?

[ikalugin]

By the way, did anyone hear anything about the alternative channel route in Nicaragua and Russian/Chinese basing in there?

[Schroeder]

I'm still not convinced that Russia is going to go about invading the Baltic States, NATO members.
I'm still not convinced that Nato would respond in force if that ever happened. We see every day how much a signed piece of paper is worth when it becomes inconvenient *coughEuro/Greececough*. I can't see us going head on with Russia in full force even if they attacked one of the Baltic countries.

[Jimbuna]

Threads merged.

[Oberon]

As for the Baltic states, honestly I think the Russian regime knows better than to try and take a bite out of them - but it's to their advantage to play up the threat, so that they tie up NATO forces and manage tension effectively.

Fully agree, it makes strategic sense to stretch NATO out as much as Russia can, in order to weaken the front.

[ikalugin]

In real terms however the opposite occured - we had to move units around as we had 0 military presense on the eastern Ukrainian border.

Same applies for the increased NATO presense in Baltics/Scandinavia - we would have to move units around yet again, probably form new ones (a difficult thing to do with the manpower shortage we have).

[Rockstar]

Wondered when you'd show up again.




Can't say I'm wholly surprised, would have been an odd thing to agree to...officially at least.
That being said, putting yourself in Russias shoes, with a military that's falling apart, an economy based solely on oil and countless internal concerns, your rival for the past 60 years expanding to your border isn't exactly going to be received well. I mean, historically Russia likes to put at least half a country between itself and its enemies, preferably more.
The expansion of NATO could have been handled better than it was, but that's how it goes, the question now is how much involvement NATO and EUFOR should consider having in the Ukraine and surrounding territories. Particularly in a climate where most of the members of NATO cannot actually afford the militaries that they're fielding. :dead:

Russias response to NATO expansion is I think only natural. But I cant say it took much to persuade former Soviet states to join. Most probably ran as fast as they could to NATO and are probably very happy to be out of Russia's sphere of influence.

But for now in my conspiritorial little brain everyone benefits, Putin can use NATO to remain popular and NATO needs a job.

[CCIP]

But I cant say it took much to persuade former Soviet states to join. Most probably ran as fast as they could to NATO and are probably very happy to be out of Russia's sphere of influence.

That's a little more complicated than it seems and varied from state to state. This is very true of the Baltic states though, which were forcibly annexed and retained living memory of pre-Soviet times, along with their own identity. To this day you still have quite a number of people alive who remember being forced into the USSR. But it's a lot more complicated with other states, including the Ukraine and Georgia for example, which aside from Soviet history also have a long and complicated history with the Russian Empire (as do the Baltic states, but their position in the Russian empire was quite different). For these, being in the NATO camp isn't as uncontroversial a choice as it might seem.

[Rockstar]

I was thinking about those Baltic states. But you're right it is much more complicated for others. Im thinking what we are seeing is the aftershocks of the break-up. Power struggles and vacuums being filled, ethnic groups and citizens finding themselves on the wrong of borders, hostilities the Soviet Union kept under relative control bubbling over. It is still one big mess yet to be fully sorted out.

[CCIP]

The other side of it too is that the post-Soviet space isn't neatly divided between Russian and Western democratic interests either - there are other forces there which, in many cases, Russian influence is a counterbalance against. These include but aren't limited to Turkey, Iran, China, India, and the Salafist extremists you hear so much these days. There are, for instance, disturbing signs that militants in the Caucasus whom Russia has been fighting for decades might now be rapidly consolidating under the banner of IS (something Russia seems to be happy to keep under the carpet for now, being busy as they are yelling about the Ukraine). Or there's Armenia now, where popular sentiment seems to be turning the country (if not the government) away from the pro-Russian camp, but the situation there is extremely complex and, in some ways, still very volatile (including the frozen conflict with Azerbaijan, their very uneasy relationship with Turkey that has deteriorated since AKP came to power, and not forgetting their proximity to the whole mess going on a bit south of them). Or Azerbaijan, which on first look might look like they're in a pretty sweet spot and enjoying the benefits of oil wealth, but in fact are surrounded on all sides by peoples extremely hostile to them, and need Russia as a guarantor of security against Iran and Armenia and Gulf-funded Sunni extremists alike.

The bad part, of course, is that Russian policy on all of this seems to have come down to managing instability and playing different factions and interests against each other, rather than trying to solve problems. Often with blatant disregard for the well-being and lives of even its own citizens.

[mapuc]

In todays Swedish news

(Have used google translate)

"Russian military fired flares against Swedish fighter jet

Russian military aircraft used countermeasure against Swedish airplane over the Baltic Sea.

It was revealed by the Supreme Commander Sverker Goranson in a defense policy seminar in Almedalen.

Armed Forces states at the same time to Expressen that countermeasure used was torches

The Russian military activity has increased significantly in the Baltic Sea area recently. Now, the Supreme Commander Sverker Goranson with sensational new data on the Russian aircraft has acted against Swedish airplane.

Russian aircraft have on several occasions violated Swedish air space. Russia has carried out major military exercises near the border, the Swedish JAS aircraft has gone up, and guarded.

Supreme Commander Sverker Goranson took part in a seminar organized by the Armed Political Arena during Almedalen Week in Visby on Monday. He revealed previously unknown information that Russian military aircraft have shed so-called countermeasure against Swedish fighter plane.

- You have violated airplane formations for us, it has set countermeasure when you fly like this so that it almost bouncing in the plate with us, says Sverker Goranson during the seminar

- This has forced us to go back to the house and think about whether we should change our behavior to be on the safe margins. But while it is a balancing act for us to not be perceived as we fold away, he says"

There were more- I just toke the first part of the article and google translate is...as it is.

Markus

[ikalugin]

Would swedes complain about the use of foul language next?

[Betonov]

Firing anything at a military aircraft (or any aircraft) is not a good idea.
Too many things can go wrong and escalate.

Violating airspace can be seen as just trolling, but firing things that pose a danger to the aircraft ???

не круто, человек

[Jimbuna]

Putin must be feeling quite isolated these days and what with low oil prices affecting an ailing economy, he must do something to keep up the appearance that Russia is king of the hill in Europe.

[CCIP]

Interesting development that's worth watching, although I would take it with a grain of salt as it is mainly being spun as a big deal by Russian media:

http://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/277329.html

Basically, some of the leaders in the ultra-nationalist Right Sector got into a shootout with police who crashed one of their gatherings in Western Ukraine. Both sides are claiming that the other fired first. That in itself is not an unusual event - it happens fairly regularly. However, according to some reports, this situation had escalated after police issued arrest warrants for a number of Right Sector figures. In retaliation, a large number of their members fled to the nearby woods, and subsequently their leadership ordered Right Sector-affiliated militias (which were fighting against the separatists) in Eastern Ukraine to retreat from their fighting positions in protest. In the meantime, the Ukrainian military has reportedly been called in to help apprehend the figures thought in connection to the shootout.

Whether the entire story is true or not, it could be a rationalization for things to escalate on the front, as separatists look to exploit (real or alleged) divisions in the Ukrainian front against them. I.e., it could be a sign they're about to move to the offensive.

[ikalugin]

As far as I am aware it was due to the dispute between two local clans as to who controls the cobtraband route into EU. This fairly common/insignificant event:
- Shows the level of civil society in Ukraine where different mobsters are members of Parliament and control their own pet police/militia forces.
- Leads to centralisation of power in Poroshenko's hands.

[Bilge_Rat]

this issue has fallen off the wayside, Ukraine is pretty much down the list of "hot" priorities now, But I thought this was interesting:

from today's meeting between Obama and Putin.


As far as Ukraine is concerned, Obama told Putin that sanctions against Russia could be fully rolled back once the Minsk agreement to resolve the conflict in eastern Ukraine is fully implemented.


http://www.politico.eu/article/obama-and-putin-discuss-turkey-syria/

Other European politicians have said similar things, but this is the first time as I recall that Obama said it. Previously, Obama had called for Russia to transfer Crimea back. Crimea is not covered by the Minsk agreement.

I would expect to see developments in both Ukraine and Syria soon. Many analysts and myself personally think the real reason why Putin went into Syria was to find a way to resolve the Ukraine hole he dug himself into.

[Oberon]

Crimea had their power cut off the other week, I presume it's back on by now though. :hmmm:

[ikalugin]

The problem with Minsk agreements is that it includes a part that Kiev has to do. So in effect what Obama said was meaningless, as Minsk would never be fully implimented unless Kiev does their part.

Crimea still has energy problems, the power from Ukraine is still cut. In the end of this month the first power cable would be complete to Crimea from Russia (the process was accelerated), the powerlines would be complete by the end of the next year.

As you may guess portable generator market is booming.

[Oberon]

Things are starting to slowly heat up in the Ukraine again...could be a good time for further Russian action in the region.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37037401

[Von Due]

Things are starting to slowly heat up in the Ukraine again...could be a good time for further Russian action in the region.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37037401

I'm half-way waiting for the news report of Ukrainian soldiers attacking a Russian radio station... With what's been going on there recently, it's hard to tell what is really happening but 2 things are fairly certain:

If Ukraine really do a bit of mischief on former Ukrainian soil they are not going to broadcast "yes, we did it".

Whether or not Ukraine really did it, Putin will have very little hesitation about launching a "revenge attack" on any radio station attacking Ukrainians, and securing the whole cake for himself for "security reasons". If Ukraine did those things, then that is very unwise. The west will take a back seat (vividly protesting of course) if Russia does a wholesale invasion.

[Oberon]

More Bastion-P mobile defence systems deployed to Crimea, two Buyan-M corvettes at Sevastopol, Russia deployed troops to the Ukraine border on the 7th and the Ukrainian forces on the Crimean border went to high alert today.
With the US pretty paralysed by elections and the EU not sure what's going on after Brexit, now is an opportune moment for Russia to finish the job.

[Rockstar]

all the more power to'em

[Jimbuna]

Aye, it certainly looks like matters are about to kick off again :hmmm:

[Oberon]

An overview of the military build-up around Ukraine:

http://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Russia%20in%20Ukraine%20August%202016_Final_Versio n.pdf


The Beeb also has an article here, which has a bit of an ominous line in it:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37062036

Moscow also announced exercises in Crimea next week to simulate an attack by weapons of mass destruction (WMD).

They know something we don't?


Also, an interactive map of the area, there's also seperate maps for Syria, which look interesting:

http://liveuamap.com/

[Jimbuna]

One possibility could be that the present sanctions are starting to hurt Russia and Putin may use the threat of an invasion to get a level of easing from said sanctions.

He could also of course be about to say to the West, "Bring it on, I doubt you'll intervene militarily anyway".

[Rockstar]

I think its been said since Russia's GDP is slightly below that of Italy and its conventional forces cannot really initiate and sustain a war with NATO without losing. The only other alternative is leave Ukraine to Russia, which is fine by me, or suffer ALL OUT NUCLEAR WARFARE that could turn us all into MUSLIM ZOMBIES.

Seriously though if conventional warfare with NATO is an impossibilty what is the alternative?

[Skybird]

Careful there, Rockstar. Russia may not be able to maintain a long lasting war over wider parts of Europe against a well-prepared NATO - but it can decisively and quickly gain geographical advantages and objectives in the Polish-Baltic region, as just one exmaple, - and defend these territories, denying NATO access to these territories. It has been admitted repeatedly by highranking NATO and US generals that NATO (and that means the US in Eastern Europe, do not count on the capacity of the German forces, they are in an awful state) cannot defend these territories, if the Russians would start serious business on militarily conquering these. And then digging themselves in and denying aerial access to these regions. A NATO attempt to reconquer these territories later on, against a well prepared Russian defence, without air superiority, would become an extremely costly endavour, and would also mean total destruction of the affected states themselves. Also, the public opinion in at least Europe would not support this. Maybe with the exception of the Eastern Europeans and the stubborn blockheads on the British isles :) a huge majority in Europe is not capable to even imagine anymore that there could be reasons why it should even want to defend against Russian aggression - that means to fight, that means to be in a conflict, you see. Do not demand so much of stressful things from us! ;) Better talk. Endlessly. That the other side does not leave it to talking, or abuses the time spend on it, is unimaginable for many people.

Its one thing to send an expeditionary force to somewhgere overseas and have it doing some - relatively unrisky- air operations there. Its somethign very different to send massive troop contingents on the ground and see own men returning home in thousands of body bags.

Just that because the Russians cannot storm to the Rhine in 7 days anymore, or less, does not mean one should underestimate them. Even already during the cold war I would have not taken it as granted that NATO would have stopped Russia without nukes. And that ignores for a moment that Russia most likely would have used nukes from day one, hour one on itself. Nukes would not have been escalated to, but would have been the opening.

As I mentioned some weeks earlier, google for the socalled Suwalki gap. And consider their presence in the Kaliningrad enclave. They can deny aerial area access already now, if they want it, they seem to have all needed platforms and hardware in place already. That pulls many of NATO's remaining teeth, since it depends so heavily on air superiority.

[Skybird]

And just after I typed the above, a German news article links me to this:

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/russia-has-edge-over-us-in-battle-army-admits-tsl7j63f5

Focussing on the British forces only, the article lists a worrying vulnerability of British vehicles to mortar fire and rockets, Russian technological superiority in air defence and missle artillery, Russian superiority in hacking enemy computer and electronics networks and hijacking them, even hijacking drones, manipulatiopn and neutrlaization of the GPS-based network itself as well as relying platforms. The internal study concludes that in case of a direct coinfrotnation between Russian and British forces, the Russians would be very substantially superior in capabilities and effectiveness.

And that does not even consider elemental numbers and force sizes.

There are other fields of military technology where the Russians are known to excel in since long: AAMs on fighter planes, certain tank-related technologies. The wars of the past decades always have been fought against Russian export tehcnologies, not original platforms they use themsleves. And export versions are always weaker derivates of the originals. You do not give away your military crown jewels. Not if you are sane in your head, and can control your greed for coins and banknotes a bit.

[mapuc]

I have until now thought that all this Military buildup in Crimea and on the Border between Russia and Crimea was to say to the leaders in Ukraine

Crimea is our-stay out

Not a military buildup to invade Ukraine.

Markus

[Oberon]

It is entirely possible that Russia could overrun any of the Baltic states (the current favourite amongst analysts is Latvia) in short order and there would be little that NATO could do about it, and to be honest I've always had a bit of a hunch that the eastward expansion of NATO was always intended to be a bit of a buffer zone to trade land for response time for any potential Russian westward advance.
The trickier part is estimating what NATO would do when presented with a fait accompli by Moscow, there would have to be some kind of measure undertaken by NATO in retaliation in order to ensure the continued existence of the organisation, otherwise trust in NATO will hit an all time low if it is shown that it cannot and will not defend member nations.
It's good money that any retaliatory reponse by NATO would be pointed firmly at Kaliningrad, and what Russias response would be to the invasion of what it considers sovereign Russian soil is difficult to ascertain, needless to say it would likely involve continued escalation and the longer any conflict between NATO and Russia goes on, the more likely it is that one side will pop the nuclear cork, and from there it's limited escalation until someone either turns it off or we go full exchange and that's game over.

So ultimately the response to any Russian attack on the Baltics is probably the hardest decision that any organisation will have to take, and since NATO revolves around international agreement, and you can guarantee that there will be members of NATO who will not want to go to war with Russia over the Baltics, Germany probably, Norway and Iceland too since they would be in the firing line, Turkey is an unknown quantity at this stage, but the Eastern states would all be in favour of marching to Moscow and burning down the Kremlin, in fact it would be hard to stop them.
And while NATO is still deciding what to do next, little green men would probably appear in Talinn and Vilnius... :/\\!!

[Dowly]

Let us just hug each other.

That'll work.

[Sailor Steve]

You are too far away to hug. Therefore you are my enemy. Die, scumbag! :O:

[Dowly]

I think I have enough enemies.

*Hugs Steve*

That hair, is it not nice to keep it short?

[Oberon]

http://s2.quickmeme.com/img/6c/6c5d6f1b9fbc6c1e458dba54d8cc828cea56185270db86a8c3 f0deddf7a715a8.jpg

[Schroeder]

http://s2.quickmeme.com/img/6c/6c5d6f1b9fbc6c1e458dba54d8cc828cea56185270db86a8c3 f0deddf7a715a8.jpg
Because you've got something that I want and I'm stronger than you!:smug:

[mapuc]

^ I'm telling this to my mom and she's stronger than you :O:

[Catfish]

Das sag' ich meinem großen Bruder, der schreibt "doof" an Deine Tür.
Das geht NIE wieder ab!
:hmph:

[Jimbuna]

It is entirely possible that Russia could overrun any of the Baltic states (the current favourite amongst analysts is Latvia) in short order and there would be little that NATO could do about it, and to be honest I've always had a bit of a hunch that the eastward expansion of NATO was always intended to be a bit of a buffer zone to trade land for response time for any potential Russian westward advance.
The trickier part is estimating what NATO would do when presented with a fait accompli by Moscow, there would have to be some kind of measure undertaken by NATO in retaliation in order to ensure the continued existence of the organisation, otherwise trust in NATO will hit an all time low if it is shown that it cannot and will not defend member nations.
It's good money that any retaliatory reponse by NATO would be pointed firmly at Kaliningrad, and what Russias response would be to the invasion of what it considers sovereign Russian soil is difficult to ascertain, needless to say it would likely involve continued escalation and the longer any conflict between NATO and Russia goes on, the more likely it is that one side will pop the nuclear cork, and from there it's limited escalation until someone either turns it off or we go full exchange and that's game over.

So ultimately the response to any Russian attack on the Baltics is probably the hardest decision that any organisation will have to take, and since NATO revolves around international agreement, and you can guarantee that there will be members of NATO who will not want to go to war with Russia over the Baltics, Germany probably, Norway and Iceland too since they would be in the firing line, Turkey is an unknown quantity at this stage, but the Eastern states would all be in favour of marching to Moscow and burning down the Kremlin, in fact it would be hard to stop them.
And while NATO is still deciding what to do next, little green men would probably appear in Talinn and Vilnius... :/\\!!

Whatever intentions Russia have it will make a move soon, if militarily and definitely before winter arrives.

'If' being the important factor/word here.

[mapuc]

I could be wrong

Do you know why NATO would hesitate in such a scenario where Russia invade Ukraine and all or some of the Baltic states

In the last 30-40 years I have heard, seen and read high ranked officer on both side saying A war between WP and NATO(From the old days) and today A war between NATO and Russia will end in a thermonuclear war.
The only difference is when this will happen.

And that could very well be the reason the outgrowing fear of a thermonuclear war if NATO would engage Russia if they invaded Some of the Baltic states or all of them-
you know the Oath in NATO-if one is attacked then every country in the alliance is attacked

If Russia do attack some of NATO's member-The Baltic states

The other countries in NATO will find a political excuse to avoid confrontation.

Markus

[August]

Because you've got something that I want and I'm stronger than you!:smug:

ACK ACK!

[Rockstar]

I could be wrong

Do you know why NATO would hesitate in such a scenario where Russia invade Ukraine and all or some of the Baltic states

In the last 30-40 years I have heard, seen and read high ranked officer on both side saying A war between WP and NATO(From the old days) and today A war between NATO and Russia will end in a thermonuclear war.
The only difference is when this will happen.

And that could very well be the reason the outgrowing fear of a thermonuclear war if NATO would engage Russia if they invaded Some of the Baltic states or all of them-
you know the Oath in NATO-if one is attacked then every country in the alliance is attacked

If Russia do attack some of NATO's member-The Baltic states

The other countries in NATO will find a political excuse to avoid confrontation.

Markus


Thats was what I was trying to get across. If NATO confronted Russia over the Ukraine with conventional forces what would Russia's response be? Do still need to think like Ike?

The U.S. must be "willing to 'push its whole stack of chips into the pot' when such becomes necessary"

Eisenhower signed NSC 5810/1, which made it official U.S. policy to treat nuclear weapons "as conventional weapons; and to use them whenever required to achieve national objectives." "The only sensible thing for us to do was to put all our resources into our hydrogen bombs," he told the NSC.

http://iv1.lisimg.com/image/4150458/600full-dwight-d.-eisenhower.jpg

approves

[Oberon]

http://il3.picdn.net/shutterstock/videos/10247042/thumb/1.jpg

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-38807778

[Oberon]

Ukrainian An-26 gets some extra ventilation while over the Black Sea:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C3muJUPUkAEs07k.jpg

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C3muJUQUkAQU9RA.jpg

Commander William B. Ecker: Damn sparrows! Must have been migrating.
Petty Officer: Sparrows?
Commander William B. Ecker: I probably hit a couple of hundred of them. How many did you hit Bruce?
Lt. Bruce Wilhemy: Sparrows? A few I guess.
Petty Officer: Are these twenty millimeter or forty millimeter sparrows, sir?

[Catfish]

^ Oops.

Some understatement, reminded me of this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oLdk2C25Z14

[ikalugin]

If memory serves me right that town was on the front lines (and under fire) since 2014. It is just that now it is politically convenient to suddenly realise that there is a humanitarian problem in there, especially after Kiev loyalists launched an attack out of it into the separatist held territories.

Also, they blame everything on Russia, how cute of them, and if you disagree - you must be an agent of Putin. The reason why this is so amusing is because it leads to agents of Putin trying to jail the agents of Putin for harming Putin's agent's interests. An example of this process is Savchenko - you may remember her being trialled in Russia some time ago, with a massive campaighn to free her (which sort of gave her a seat in the parlament in attempt to give her imunity), now she is - you guessed it, agent of Putin and traitor to Ukraine.

[Catfish]

It is old news that the US were involved in trying to overthrow the government.
And of course "we" blame everything on Russia.
But you have to admit that, since the whole thing was somehow screwed up by those secret services, Russia has been the beneficiary. :03:

[Skybird]

I could be wrong

Do you know why NATO would hesitate in such a scenario where Russia invade Ukraine and all or some of the Baltic states

In the last 30-40 years I have heard, seen and read high ranked officer on both side saying A war between WP and NATO(From the old days) and today A war between NATO and Russia will end in a thermonuclear war.
The only difference is when this will happen.

And that could very well be the reason the outgrowing fear of a thermonuclear war if NATO would engage Russia if they invaded Some of the Baltic states or all of them-
you know the Oath in NATO-if one is attacked then every country in the alliance is attacked

If Russia do attack some of NATO's member-The Baltic states

The other countries in NATO will find a political excuse to avoid confrontation.

Markus
One should not take it for granted that Wetsern natiosn stand in line for mutual Western-Rssian destruction just to defend a small tiny place - however lovely it may be - like for exmaple Lithuania. The residents in this country are rightfully worried, I think, and the Ukraine was the laboratory experiment by which Russia tested how to take over a place without triggering strong NATO replies.

What holds Russia back, is not military fear of NATO, but economic concerns.

Conventionally, the Eastern European countries of NATO currently are undefendable. Lets say that in all clarity.

The only militaries in Europe that indeed are war-capable currently, are the British, the French, and the Turkish ones. Also, they are "used" to it. The German IS NOT. Thats not just my impression, but that is the feedback of insiders that I have gotten repeatedly over the past 20 years. We have de-armed way too much.

That German defence ministress von der Leyen on her visit to Lithuania two days ago, had to fly back not with the German pride, the Airbus A400M - "The most advanced military transport in the world!!!" - but had to be shuttled out in a 50 years old Transall the Airbus should replace, because that damn thing A400M once again broke down, is symptomatic.

I am hating the A400M since many years. Incompetence in the ministry's planning, incometence in the producer's assembling. Awful project, and a money-grave. Terrible plane. Next time simply buy the C130. But the Germans allways want the "eierlegende Wollmilchsau".

[Catfish]

The A440m is ot bad at all, it just has some teething problems :D

[Jimbuna]

The A440m is ot bad at all, it just has some teething problems :D

Yeah but all its teeth are rotten :)

[Catfish]

Each and every plane type had and has problems during development :03:
The new turboprop engines are the most powerful in the world, a lot of brand-new technology went into it, and it seems the problems have already been found, but they have not updated each plane yet. Then: software. Not helpful to have an auto switch-off of engines due to a manufacturing error of course, but not a design fault.

Much less noisy than a jet-powered AC, more than 10,000 hp from each (!)engine, full stop in ten seconds after touching ground, able to land in the desert without runway.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DodKUmJEnbY
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HTQh5qa_FQA

Not too bad i think. If they get the trouble sorted out..

[Schroeder]

^You forgot:
Service life of engine's gearbox: ~ 25 flight hours before collapsing.:/\\!!

To my knowledge that problem can't be fixed with current technology.
I don't know whether I should:har: or :wah:....

[Jimbuna]

^Yep, not too bad at all :yep:

[Catfish]

Last number i read was 600 hours, but no time to find it now.
But go on, you can bring down anything with crticising :03:


(If not Trump :O:)

[Jimbuna]

^Yep, not too bad at all :yep:

Just for the record and purpose of clarity, I was referring to the two video clips.

[Catfish]

^ @Jim oops sorry :oops:

But then i could say i only meant Schroeder :D

:)

[Skybird]

Each and every plane type had and has problems during development :03:

You said it yourself. During development.

When the A400M finally does what it should, the airframes already will be worn out from moisture and seismic activity.

[ikalugin]

The only militaries in Europe that indeed are war-capable currently, are the British, the French, and the Turkish ones.
Turks are not really European and your forgot Poles. And in my opinion the Russian forces are not made for conquiring EU (or NATO) member states, but we had this discussion already.

[Jimbuna]

^ @Jim oops sorry :oops:

But then i could say i only meant Schroeder :D

:)

No problem matey :salute:

[Oberon]

So Belarus just called up all its reserves, seems there's a little bit of jitteryness there about the relations between Minsk and Moscow, some fear there might be an attempt to coup Lukashenka during the Belarus/Russian exercises in March. Unlikely, but we'll see.

[ikalugin]

So Belarus just called up all its reserves, seems there's a little bit of jitteryness there about the relations between Minsk and Moscow, some fear there might be an attempt to coup Lukashenka during the Belarus/Russian exercises in March. Unlikely, but we'll see.
Lukashenko tries to sit on the fence, playing both sides and keeping his options open. This is a dangerous game to play. Morever, as a means to balance out the passive Russian soft power (which is a think in Belarussia more than in Ukraine) by supporting nationalists, getting a Maidan is by far more likely in my opinion than a coup.

[ikalugin]

Meanwhile:
http://www.interfax.ru/world/550084
http://echo.msk.ru/news/1928668-echo.html
It appears that Ukraine has enacted the state of emergency in it's energy sector. The stated cause for it is... Ukrainian activists blocking supply of coal from the separatist held areas to the Kiev controlled ones.

p.s. while this development may not be critical (Ukraine has ~1 month worth of reserves left) it is pretty important, as Ukraine and Russia did not prolong the electricity export agreement (from Russia to Ukraine - Ukraine was in due to their deficit and Russia was in for the transit of electricity to Crimea, now Crimea is supplied directly from Russia and Ukraine, should it renew it's coal deliveries, is no longer facing shortages). This means that unless the coal deliveries begin Ukraine would suffer power shortages in the summer.

The reason why Ukraine cannot switch to another means of generation is simple - it doesnt have the money to build that capacity. Nor can it transit to another kind of coal b/c Donbas coal was very high quality and would be too expencive to buy elsewhere or to shift to a different kind of coal (the later is hard b/c you need to modify boilers).

[ikalugin]

http://www.kremlin.ru/acts/news/53895
Russia now recognises official documents (from passports to certificates of secondary education) issued in the LDNR (regions not under the control of Kiev), untill the Ukrainian crisis is resolved.

[August]

http://www.kremlin.ru/acts/news/53895
Russia now recognises official documents (from passports to certificates of secondary education) issued in the LDNR (regions not under the control of Kiev), untill the Ukrainian crisis is resolved.

So in other words you guys are getting ready to carve off another section of Ukraine.

[ikalugin]

So in other words you guys are getting ready to carve off another section of Ukraine.
There are two sides to this. First one is that, sure, if we recognise their documents we get closer to recognising them as an independent state.

But there is the second, humanitarian side to it - since 2014 people kept being born (with birth certificates), getting their primary and secondary education (and relevant certificates), driving licenses and what not. Because Kiev has no control over those territories those documents happen to be issued by local authorities.
So by recognising those documents as valid we help the locals.

On related note:
http://tass.ru/obschestvo/4037895
only 24 percent of people support recognition of LDNR independence but majority supports the idea of helping those regions in other ways.

[ikalugin]

http://www.vedomosti.ru/business/articles/2017/02/20/678324-donbass-eksportnii-rinok
Our export of meat and beer into Donbas is doing very well, with the economic blockade Ukrainian activists have set up.

[August]

There are two sides to this. First one is that, sure, if we recognise their documents we get closer to recognising them as an independent state.

But there is the second, humanitarian side to it - since 2014 people kept being born (with birth certificates), getting their primary and secondary education (and relevant certificates), driving licenses and what not. Because Kiev has no control over those territories those documents happen to be issued by local authorities.
So by recognising those documents as valid we help the locals.

How exactly does that help the locals? Russia is not teaching their young or acting as traffic cops so I don't see why it would be so important that you do that.

[ikalugin]

How exactly does that help the locals? Russia is not teaching their young or acting as traffic cops so I don't see why it would be so important that you do that.
That is simple. They are essentially cut off Ukraine by political activists in Ukraine, who conduct a comprehensive blockade of the region. This means that they could not conduct activities in the Kiev controlled regions of Ukraine - they could not go to a decent university, could not get medical care, could not do buisness. Now they can, just in Russia instead of Ukraine.

This is really a logical result of the blockade of Donbas by Ukrainian political activists, the other ones is the energy crisis in Ukraine (because activists block coal supply from Donbas to the Kiev held regions of Ukraine) and the increased economic ties between Donbas and Russia (I posted a link to an article detailing the changes in the food trade).

[August]

That is simple. They are essentially cut off Ukraine by political activists in Ukraine, who conduct a comprehensive blockade of the region. This means that they could not conduct activities in the Kiev controlled regions of Ukraine - they could not go to a decent university, could not get medical care, could not do buisness.

This is really a logical result of the blockade of Donbas by Ukrainian political activists, the other ones is the energy crisis in Ukraine (because activists block coal supply from Donbas to the Kiev held regions of Ukraine) and the increased economic ties between Donbas and Russia (I posted a link to an article detailing the changes in the food trade).

None of that actually answers my question.

[ikalugin]

None of that actually answers my question.
It does. Let me rephraze my response - Donbas is not independently viable, hence it's people need access to other regions (of Ukraine) or countries (Russia) to get access to means of living a decent life. That access requires their documents being recognised by the authorities.

Hence Russia providing such access is a good thing for them, as Ukrainian activists have blocked their access to such means in other regions of Ukraine.

Ofcourse this undermines the intimidation policy conducted by Ukrainian political activists, but those policies, just like their blockade of Crimea shows, are counter productive.

[August]

It does. Let me rephraze my response - Donbas is not independently viable, hence it's people need access to other regions (of Ukraine) or countries to get access to means of living a decent life.

Hence Russia providing such access is a good thing for them.

Ofcourse this undermines the intimidation policy conducted by Ukrainian political activists, but those policies, just like their blockade of Crimea shows, are counter productive.

Counter productive to the Russians trying carve up their country you mean. And what you are calling "Ukrainian political activists" is in reality the government of that nation whose internal affairs you are interfering in. You can keep trying but no amount of Moscow maneuvering is going to make the rest of the world see what you're doing in that country as anything but the land grab it is.

[ikalugin]

Counter productive to the Russians trying carve up their country. And what you are calling "Ukrainian political activists" is in reality the government of that nation whose internal affairs you are interfering in.
You misunderstand.

First of all, those political activists do not operate with the authority of the official Kiev, but with the silent consent of it and are separate from the said authority.

Secondly such policies are counter productive to Kiev's interests, because the people in the regions blockaded become more dissatisfied with Kiev regime, as they are denied basic services, for example electric power supply.

An example of the later would be political activists blowing up powerlines into Crimea (and cutting off some Kiev held areas in the process). You can refresh those events in your memory by reading this article (or other articles on the topic):
https://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/23/world/europe/power-lines-to-crimea-are-blown-up-cutting-off-electricity.html
There were also cuts in food supplies from Kiev held regions into Crimea, those deliveries (just like electric power) were later replaced by deliveries from Russia, hurting both the Kiev's support base in Crimea and Ukrainian buisnesses.

Nowadays those same activists block raillines, including the coal supplies from Donbas to Ukraine (and food supplies from Ukraine to Donbas, same thing as they did in Crimea, I have linked an article above regarding growth of Russian food exports into Donbas), which lead to the Kiev Goverment enacting a state of emergency:
http://en.interfax.com.ua/news/economic/403457.html

[August]

You misunderstand.

First of all, those political activists do not operate with the authority of the official Kiev, but with the silent consent of it and are separate from the said authority.

That makes no sense. If they have the consent of official Kiev, silent or not, then they are not separate from said authority.

Secondly such policies are counter productive to Kiev's interests, because the people in the regions blockaded become more dissatisfied with Kiev regime, as they are denied basic services, for example electric power supply.

An example of the later would be political activists blowing up powerlines into Crimea (and cutting off some Kiev held areas in the process). You can refresh those events in your memory by reading this article (or other articles on the topic):
https://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/23/w...ectricity.html
There were also cuts in food supplies from Kiev held regions into Crimea, those deliveries (just like electric power) were later replaced by deliveries from Russia, hurting both the Kiev's support base in Crimea and Ukrainian buisnesses.

Nowadays those same activists block raillines, including the coal supplies from Donbas to Ukraine (and food supplies from Ukraine to Donbas, same thing as they did in Crimea, I have linked an article above regarding growth of Russian food exports into Donbas), which lead to the Kiev Goverment enacting a state of emergency:
http://en.interfax.com.ua/news/economic/403457.html

It's all just so convenient to Moscow's interests and so detrimental to Kiev's that it makes me wonder who these "political activists" really work for.

Time will tell what happens but when the dust finally settles i'll bet this ends up with Mother Russia expanding her borders again and it'll bet the Pravda will be that it was all Kievs fault. Just like it was all their fault that Moscow was forced to seize the Crimea. Just like it was the Georgians fault that Moscow was forced to invade their country although those breakaway regions are technically "independent".

[Oberon]

There do seem to be a lot of...fortunate accidents...when it comes to Moscow. Well, unless you happen to be an ambassador, poor sods are really having a tough time of it at the moment.

[Catfish]

There do seem to be a lot of...fortunate accidents...when it comes to Moscow. Well, unless you happen to be an ambassador, poor sods are really having a tough time of it at the moment.

There are also russian critics of Putin or his policies within the motherland having a "hard time," if you do not see poisoning and physical threatening as a pledge of frindship :03:

[Oberon]

There are also russian critics of Putin or his policies within the motherland having a "hard time," if you do not see poisoning and physical threatening as a pledge of frindship :03:

No, no, they just fell down some stairs...All of them... :03:

[ikalugin]

That makes no sense. If they have the consent of official Kiev, silent or not, then they are not separate from said authority.

It's all just so convenient to Moscow's interests and so detrimental to Kiev's that it makes me wonder who these "political activists" really work for.
Official Kiev lacks monopoly on the use of violence.

You get the real horror stories about the volonteer battalions, such as Tornado battalion (http://www.reuters.com/article/us-ukraine-crisis-battalions-special-rep-idUSKCN0Q30YT20150729 http://www.globalresearch.ca/criminals-running-ukrainian-national-guard-tornado-battalion/5458575)

Then there are much more mundane situations, where Right Sector fights with the local authorities in Western Ukraine over the lucrative smugling ventures (which are controlled by those authorities) or police back up teams rescuing their comrades cought looting by security (security was murdered).

As to who they serve - they serve themselves. For example back when they blockaded Crimea one of the intentions was to gain control over the flow of food supplies. By blocking access of Ukrainian suppliers they were planning to force them to use their services as middlemen (and thus by basically driving the stuff over the border and reselling it to Crimean buyers right south of the border).

But yes, you are right in a way, they all call each other "agents of Putin".

[Jimbuna]

There do seem to be a lot of...fortunate accidents...when it comes to Moscow. Well, unless you happen to be an ambassador, poor sods are really having a tough time of it at the moment.

There are also russian critics of Putin or his policies within the motherland having a "hard time," if you do not see poisoning and physical threatening as a pledge of frindship :03:

Well, as I've posted on this forum before.......Putin in the simplest of terms is nothing more than a democratically elected dictator.

[Catfish]

^ Very true.

"While typically not traceable to any individuals and plausibly denied by government officials, poisonings leave little doubt of the state’s involvement — which may be precisely the point."

The point it proves is that the russian government obviously feels the need for such methods, because they are not able to silence critics otherwise.
Another point they prove with it is, that the government is wrong and undemocratic.

" ... Used extensively in the Soviet era, political murders are again playing a prominent role in the Kremlin’s foreign policy, the most brutal instrument in an expanding repertoire of intimidation tactics intended to silence or otherwise intimidate critics at home and abroad."

And the parliamant officially supports that:

"No other major power employs murder as systematically and ruthlessly as Russia does against those seen as betraying its interests abroad. Killings outside Russia were even given legal sanction by the nation’s Parliament in 2006."

https://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/21/world/europe/moscow-kremlin-silence-critics-poison.html?_r=0


Not that other nations have not used those methods in certain cases here and there, but this has a special quality, and quantity.

[ikalugin]

Thread derailed :)

That said, Ukrainian authorities are known to go above and beyond, with people shooting themselves three times in the back, with their hands cuffed and firearm taken.

[Bilge_Rat]

Not that other nations have not used those methods in certain cases here and there, but this has a special quality, and quantity.

well that is not really true, you have had several murders of pro-Russian politicians/journalists in Ukraine since 2014. i.e.:

http://www.cnn.com/2015/04/17/europe/ukraine-political-killings/

no one has ever been charged, but many observers seem to think it is right wing groups acting either with the tacit consent of the Ukrainian government or under their orders.

The Poroshenko governemnt pointed the finger at Russia, but it is not plausible to believe the Russians would kill their own supporters just to embarass the Ukrainian government.

[ikalugin]

Yes, political activists block justice. For example they openly pressure courts or block courts from operating - the best example in my opinion was when they blocked the transfer of people, who were accused of shooting at Maidan protestors from getting to the court, when Yanukovich was testifying as a witness.

There was also a new interesting technology deployed by Ukrainians. What is it? It is a database of undesirables with their personal data (home adress, work place etc). The database is publically viewable and is run by the state affiliated people (aid to the minister for internal affairs for example).

Later vigilantees murder those undesirables. Fortunately western journalists, who got themselves into that database, evacuated before they were murdered.

[Oberon]

Thread derailed :)

That said, Ukrainian authorities are known to go above and beyond, with people shooting themselves three times in the back, with their hands cuffed and firearm taken.

Two wrongs do not make a right. :03:

[ikalugin]

Two wrongs do not make a right. :03:
Double standards, that is all.

Plus we have a lot to learn from their activies. That "Peacekeer" webiste idea was genious. You can begin with it's wiki article here:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Myrotvorets

[Oberon]

Well, unless you happen to be an ambassador, poor sods are really having a tough time of it at the moment.

And another one goes. Becoming a bit like living in the same geographical location as Jessica Fletcher.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-38560438

[ikalugin]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p04v48h7

Poor Arseniy, he was not prepared for this, he contradicts himself in the interview and the journalist wrecks him.

They go into the question of blockade from the get go - August, you may find it interesting somewhat.

[ikalugin]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vs5WiHyLdps
Activists are walling in the entrance to a Sberbank-Ukraine branch in Kiev. Sberbank-Ukraine is a subsidiery of a Russian bank - Sberbank and holds about 8 percent of the deposits of Ukrainian population. Sberbank may consider voiding such deposits due to the events of irresistable force.