The long slow endl of the American era

[CCIP]

Originally Posted by nikimcbee

Now if all of Asia were to somehow unite:hmm: . The Asian work ethic? Now that would be unstoppable.

To an extent that's a bit of a stereotype.

Otherwise Asia has about as much chance of uniting within itself as China has a chance of uniting with America. It's a nasty misperception that there's anywhere near a common culture between them. It only seems that way to a Westerner.

[nikimcbee]

Originally Posted by CCIP

Last I checked, it was China and not Russia still ruled by a communist party :hmm:

You are right, but the communist party has "gotten out of the way" so to speak. There was an interesting show on PBS regarding China. There's the capitalist half and the communist half. The capitalist half (vis a vie) Hong Kong is still very successful. I'm under the impression that as long as HK doesn't cause any problems for the Party, the party doesn't bother them.

Then there's the communist half, they are backwards as it gets. There is no money for their healthcare and education. The gov't controled businesses can't compete with the private ones.

China has some interesting problems though. They need to keep the peasants on the peasant side of the country. If they Chinese gov't looses control of the peasants and they leave the farmland to the city, China will collapse fast!

Here's the link:
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/red/view/

[nikimcbee]

Originally Posted by CCIP

To an extent that's a bit of a stereotype.

Otherwise Asia has about as much chance of uniting within itself as China has a chance of uniting with America. It's a nasty misperception that there's anywhere near a common culture between them. It only seems that way to a Westerner.

Not at all! I worked for a Korean company, and they are VERY hard workers. fortunatly for the West China/Japan/Korea don't play too nicely together. (atleast historically)

I don't understand Asian culture at all, but I've had some interesting insights into it the last few years.

[nikimcbee]

first 5 minutes says it all:
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/youngchina/

New show on China.

[Skybird]

I do not see any power after the US dominating the world ever again as happened between the end of the cold war until the present. It is going to turn into a multipolar world with several power centres. Most obviously China, and Europe, for it's temporary wealth from selling energy ressources: Russia, for fading in power and influence only slowly: America, and the coming economic superstates: Brazil, India. Brzezinski probably sees it absolutely correctly when arguing that the US did not turn into a true superpower before the USSR fell, becasue the USSR was strong enough for four decades to force america to act with self-restraint due to this strong rival on the global stage. After 1989 and the detah of the USSR, we saw the first -. and, as Brzezinski argues - also the last true superpower in history. The american era began in WW2, some would even argue WWI, and lasted until our present time. The era of America being a superpower began in the very early nineties (may one could use the war '91 as a mark), and ended when the financial system and financial philosphy of america broke down and it became obvious that it cannot live by its own effort anymore, something that is also illustrated by the stellar debts and the fact that america cannot feed it's hunger for consummation by its own production and needs to import goods worth 700 billion dollar more than it does export in return.

as the essay said, on the one hand the increasing loss of respect for america is obvious, on the other hand, as it also says, there is no reason for Schadenfreude, or gluttony. We currently see a massive shift in geostrategic tectonics, and the process of relocating and newly assessing the future balances of power not only hurts america and will leave it weaker than it was before, but will also do a lot of damage to us as well. It is in our own interest to help and assist America in coming to a peaceful rest again after the earthquake is over, and stablize it so that by that our own phase of transformation works smoother as well. That cannot mean, of course, to just accept the american model of markets again like before, and to allow ameica behzave like the one and only great hegemon . America will need to accept concessions here - finally, and not few ones. Else it is to be rejected. We have no obligation to sacrifcie our selfinterest for the interest of America.

Two things are not wanted here: retaliation and payback for past arrogance and unilateralism from the Europeans on the one hand, and fantasies of just continuing in the same way and at the point where one was interrupted as if nothing had happened from the Americans on the other hand. There will be neither an end to america (but an slow fading out of the american empire), nor will american influence just seize to exist within four years, it is a process that in the financial area very likely could last for 10-15 years, maybe even 20-25 years or so. Most obvious fields where it will be observed (and already can be observed) are the currencies and their importance (the Euro will take over the Dollar's importance) , the importance of Wall Street and London as a financial centre, the fading willingness to support the deeply unhealthy finances of the American state, an growing rejection of american claims for dominant influence in international gremia like WB and ICF - and last but not least sooner or later the insane spendings on the military will need to see drastic cuts, corresponding to a reduction of global military capacity of the US. The current level of military size and defense spendings simply cannot be afforded with debts like these, yearly deficits like these, and such an insane import-export-disbalance which only shows that the producing economy is not strong enough anymore to prepare for war on this immense level. If you want so huge a military, you must be able to finance that all by yourself - and that is not possible for america anymore, and since quite some time. The growing debts are evidence for that. Practically all European empires had come to this point during the past 500 years: state bancruptcy due to excessive military spendings that could not be afforded anymore. There are other things that need to be given priority in the coming years and decades.

So, the Us will remain to be there. But it's global dominance is to fade slowly from now on, and it will need to learn a modesty that it is not really used to. And having seen how power was abused once the neutralising rival, the USSR, was gone, and a mixture of madness and arrogance led to the policies we have seen especially in the Bush years and the program by the socalled Neocons, I cannot really regret that, although I see a more dangerous future ahead with a multipolar world competing for fading key ressources. Maybe the golden age for the past half of a century - is to come to an end. I don't know, but I could imagine that it could be.

[baggygreen]

My fear is that without a hegemon, and with several smaller but significant states vying for resources, as sky said, we're in for a very rough ride over the next century.

[Frame57]

In reality the economic situation is a good thing. First it will cause us to have a corrected market and will smoke out the corruption in the democratic controlled finance committee. Within a decade America rose from the great depression to be the fiery sword that ended WW2. Americans sacrificed to make that happen and if called upon to do so again to right herself then it is a good and needful thing. It has and always be challenges that make America a great county.

[August]

My bet is that by the end of the century Europe will go back to warring amongst itself and the Euro will be rendered worthless.

[Frame57]

I am not sure how and why many european countries are allowing the influx of muslims. France, England and the Balkans are having problems with this. So, as went Kosovo, so will other countries experience this in the future and I think that we be a problem for them. Italy is taking great pains to not allow muslims into their country and this is obviously due to the Roman Catholics. Think about for a moment of the last import you bought that was made in England? France? etc... there is virtually no exports from the EU. Almost everything I buy has a China tag on it. They are the wave of the future economically and axiomatically militarily as well. So I agree with you but I will give it 20 years tops.

[Morts]

Originally Posted by August

My bet is that by the end of the century Europe will go back to warring amongst itself and the Euro will be rendered worthless.

whatever makes you feel better...

[Frame57]

Originally Posted by Mikhayl

Interesting, can you tell me more about the problems we have in France with muslims ? And how does it affect our home made production of goods ?

Many of our headlines featured street violence by muslims in France. Do you deny it there is aproblem with them integrating into your society? Probably nothing in affecting your produce. I did not dilineate the subject matter in my post. In response I was making two points. One, that the EU is not an export powerhouse. Two, the EU's has a problem with muslim migration and because their religious mind set is to conquor, and they will not honor or obey your laws and culture, you will have problems as evidenced in Kosovo of recent...

[Frame57]

Perhaps then because you have not been personally affected, you are biased. I know the BBC also brought these issues to our attention as well. Stay tuned for a mosque coming soon to a neigborhood near you, then you may remember what I have told is true. So, what is next, I suppose you will tell me that Italy is begging them to come there too?

[Konovalov]

Originally Posted by Frame57

their religious mind set is to conquor, and they will not honor or obey your laws and culture, you will have problems as evidenced in Kosovo of recent...

Yes, we all sit around the dinner table at night discussing such that you mentioned above while ignoring and dishonoring our nations laws in our daily lives. What a load of crud you speak.

[Skybird]

No major european industry has such a suicidal import-export-dysbalance as your coiuntry, Frame. I would show more self-restraint before mocking about the Eu in this regard. you country needs to import more goods than it can export, goods worth 700 billion dollars to meet it's internal consummation demands. your industry is not strong enough to support your living style, and 60% of your national income are not made by producing goods, but just by trafficking financial transactions.

That is why the banking crisis is so threatening for you. It is lifethreatening for y<ou, since making money without producing has become the major pillar of your economy.

and you know what? In the near future your country will no longer be strong enough to afford to keep the Chinese away from buying up major shares of American banks on huge scale. This with their already huge, no: biblical reserves in dollars, and them being the ones keeping alive your self-financing by selling worthless state bonds. the more they expand to africa, South america, and close relations with Europe, the less depending their production becomes on exporting to america - and endlessly subsidizing this deeply ill finance system sooner or later will see them running our of patience. Nobody wastes his money into that bottomless hole endlessly, until the end of time. at the same time, you will depend more and more on them, and more or more live at their mercy and good will.

War over Taiwan? the US probably already could economically and financially not afford that, and i am absolutely sure in the near future it cannot afford that for sure. There will not be a war over Taiwan with american participation.

Ringing an alarm bell, maybe? Spending more than one can afford, is a bitch, really. It may take some time before you feel the sting from it, but feeling it you always must, sooner or later.

muslims and europe, I think I must not say anything on that anymore, my views are known, however, your remark on Italy and catholizim probably is not correct. Keep in mind that berlusconi is a.) a populist, and b.) tends towards the far right. I have no doubt that he would open doors and windows for Islam if only he and his empire can benefit from that, so catholizism probably has little to do with it (after all it is the catholic church who initiated the islamic surge into Europe and encouraged it in the early and mid-60s). It simply is pure elemental xenophobia that he services in order to raise shorttermed political support from the crowds. Italy is goal for many illegally entering africans who land more dead than alive on italian shores and every year try by the hundreds of boats to reach italian soil. residents at the coats seeing their places flooded with foreigners, more and more camps and the social tensions and crime probelosm all this brings, must be without doubt a bit weary of it. It is feelings like this that berlusoni instrumentalises.

BTW, I have not been aware of any new level of anti-Islamism in Italy. It would be dsirable, there and in all europe, but I do not see a huge change in the trend of the past years. In Germany, an opposition is foriming up, but it remaisn to be small, tame, and gets underminded by Neonazis and extreme rights - and in germany, this guarantees its failure probably better than any muslim effort against them.

[SUBMAN1]

Yawn to this thread.

America has been dying for 50 years according o Europe. We are still here. Must be REALLLL SLOOOOOOOOOOOOOWW!

-S