Syria Shoots Down Turkish Fighter

[Jimbuna]

Originally Posted by Oberon

Oh Snap, Turkey has been angry at Syria since day one of this mess, this could be the turning factor if Turkey decides to directly intervene.

Whether NATO would actually follow through if Turkey invited it is another matter, some nations probably would, but many I think would just commit a token force.

If Turkey 'directly intervenes' I can see Russia making a lot of political noise but nothing more because NATO and or the US would have no other option than to become physically involved in response to what the west would see as Russian aggression.

My own assessment: still a storm in a tea cup.

[MH]

So far this questionable incident is least of a reason to intervene if anyone really wanted to get involved openly in this mess.
I think Russians are doing favor for all involved...and they still take the blame as the bad guys.

[mapuc]

I hope they will find some kind of solution to the current problems down there so it does not turn into a bloody full-scale civil war

and if it happens, I hope that the rest of the world stay away and not stick its nose into this wasp's nest.


I for one are not interested in a war-like situation in which Syria on the one side, getting military support from Russia and and perhaps China, fighting, the Syrian opposition that is probably supported by NATO and perhaps U.S.A

I hope for the best but are prepared for the worst.

Markus

[Molon Labe]

I don't see this leading to anything b/c the F-4 was apparently in Syrian airspace anyways (and with everything going on, it would make zero sense for Syria to attack Turkey without provocation, so we can assume the early reports are correct in that regard).

The more interesting question to me is, why was the Turkish Phantom there---snooping around? Testing air defense response?

[TLAM Strike]

Originally Posted by Molon Labe

The more interesting question to me is, why was the Turkish Phantom there---snooping around? Testing air defense response?

The Turks have the RF-4E so it might have been a recon mission.

EDIT: Defense Tech says it was an RF-4E
http://defensetech.org/2012/06/22/tu...wn-near-syria/

[Codz]

Originally Posted by mapuc

I hope they will find some kind of solution to the current problems down there so it does not turn into a bloody full-scale civil war

Markus

I believe this is already being considered a civil war.

[joegrundman]

Originally Posted by jimbuna

If Turkey 'directly intervenes' I can see Russia making a lot of political noise but nothing more because NATO and or the US would have no other option than to become physically involved in response to what the west would see as Russian aggression.

My own assessment: still a storm in a tea cup.

don't count on it.

the war chants are building up slowly.

If turkey wants this to be a non-story that is resolvable with a payment and an apology, then it will be.

But if not, then this will be escalated.

Many parties are interested in escalating the Syrian situation, and Assad's days are definitely numbered, but slowly, slowly is the watchword for this time around in the regime change game. And maybe it will even be Turkey and/or Saudi Arabia that pulls the trigger (but with the nod from Washington)

p.s. anyone know what the Syrian weapon system was that downed the Phantom?

[Jimbuna]

Originally Posted by joegrundman

p.s. anyone know what the Syrian weapon system was that downed the Phantom?

Possibly an SA-5 Gammon.

According to rumors, it was an SA-5 Gammon (S-200) a long range medium to high-altitude mobile SAM produced by the Soviets in the ’60s. Five SA-5 sites are known to be active in Syria.

http://theaviationist.com/2012/06/22/tuaf-f4-shot-down/

[TLAM Strike]

Originally Posted by jimbuna

Possibly an SA-5 Gammon.

The Syrians also have the S-300 system.

[Jimbuna]

Originally Posted by TLAM Strike

The Syrians also have the S-300 system.

May also of been an SA-11

http://www.debka.com/article/22112/N...rkish-warplane

[Oberon]

It was an F-4...maybe the laws of physics finally caught up with it...

[TLAM Strike]

The location and route of the down Phantom has been published. There are known SA-2 and SA-3 sites close to that location and a SA-5 site about 60 miles away.

[Skybird]

Russia announced to deliver weapons to Assad. A ship with modernised Syrian attack helicopters has just been turned back by Britain, over some insurrance formalities. It will be re-flagged and then sent back to Syria under Russian flag.

The CIA is reported to check for those groups amongst the opposition that should get weapons payed and delivered by Saudi Arabia and some other Arab countries.

Erdoghan I. and Assad once were very close buddies, but now... well, never try to look behind oriental schemes. Erdoghan could use the opportunity to profile Turkey as the strong and dominating boss of the region that he wants it to be. Or not? Will Turkey risk military confrontations with Syria, maybe?

Maybe a Turkish aid flotilla to Syria?

One thing is clear only: there is no excuse anymore not to call this a civil war.

I do not want to see any Western soldier's life put at risk over this. The Syrian oppositons (plural!) may be Assad'S enemy. But that does not make them our friends automatically.

[TLAM Strike]

Originally Posted by Skybird

One thing is clear only: there is no excuse anymore not to call this a civil war. [/B][/I]

Not sure we can call it a civil war when there are IRGC troops on the ground.