GER politics thread

[Skybird]

We have one for the US, we have one for the UK - but none for Germany, the only remaining most important player in the EU after Brexit?

I get it started here, and we start with this article on the current voters' mood in Germany and the chances of the two candidates for the German general elections in six months.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/martin-schulz-candidacy-has-merkel-on-the-defensive-a-1134302-druck.html

P.S. Too bad that German media in past years have dramatically reduced their translation services and international (=English) media representation. Input from non-German media and international sources is thus welcomed.

[Oberon]

Schulz? Does the Luftwaffe have enough private charter flights for him? :haha:

I really can't see him with his EP record being any more popular than Tante Merkel, but at the moment I think a bag of concrete is probably more popular.
Still, either are better than Meuthen, Petry or Bachmann.
Whoever gets it though has their work cut out though, no mistake.

[Skybird]

Latest polls two days ago or so gave Schulz a 13 or 15 point lead over Merkel... Currently. And I think the absolute majority.

Its like it was in the US: Germans are called to choose between pest and cholera.

[Jimbuna]

Its like it was in the US: Germans are called to choose between pest and cholera.

LOL, isn't that the usual choice in many an election these days.

I wouldn't bet against Merkel, she is a survivor.

The question I pose is.....are the right in the likes of Germany, France, Holland etc. yet strong enough to build a majority or have the ability to find sufficient coalition partners to gain power?

At the present time I think not but there is growing support for such factions.

[Skybird]

Le Pen in France may have a realistic chance to become first already this coming election. Whether that automatically results in the FN forming a government coalition under its lead, is something else. But with so many people being fed up by the state of things in the West in general, anything is possible now.

[Skybird]

Germany finds it hard to adapt to the apparently coming age of tax wars. But with its strong export focus it is depending on an international system that both Trump and May openly threaten to destroy.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/u-s-and-uk-trade-policy-proposals-have-germany-scrambling-a-1134668.html

I often said that I consider a country whose economy is too dependent on exports and thus factors outside its influential reach, is not really strong in economics, but weak, because it is highly dependent and vulnerable. As every martial arts athlete knows: solid stand and flexible, dynamic body tension is everything. The German stand is anything but that strong as it seems.

[AVGWarhawk]

My money is on Merkel.

[Schroeder]

My money is on Merkel.
I don't even want to think about a victory of Schulz and a SPD, Green, Left coalition.:Kaleun_Sick:

[mapuc]

The only thing I know when it comes to Germany is that both Denmark and Sweden is very dependent on how well it goes economically in Germany

Markus

[STEED]

It will take France to withdraw from the EU to cause massive damage but only the withdraw of Germany would bring it crashing down. And I just don't see ether country withdrawing any time soon.

[Skybird]

My money is on Merkel.

Her star is descending, and she knows it, you can see and hear it in her. She has no chance to get elected due to conviction, not after the mass migration problems she channele dinto Europe and into Germany. If she wins (and I am anythig but sure on that), she only wins because people vote for her to prevent Schulz, like many voted for Trump just to prevent Clinton. Merkel has no opinion or conviction majority in Germany anymore, these times are over.

[Jimbuna]

Does Germany have the funds and will to make up for the shortfall in income to the EU post Brexit?

[Skybird]

The only thing I know when it comes to Germany is that both Denmark and Sweden is very dependent on how well it goes economically in Germany

Markus
All EU countries are very dependent on how well it goes in Germany. ;) Take away Britain, France, Italy, and the EU could still hobble on, somehow. Take out Germany from the EU equation, and the EU collapses within shortest imaginable time. Its not just the funding of the EU and about money, its also about the network of trading contacts, the traffic of goods, the longer, interlinked prouction lines that thanks to globalization make everybody more dependant and vulnerabel than before.

Lucky will be him who can afford to stay with himself and is autark. Germany is not. And this is what they call economic strength! :har: The revenge will find my country, its just a question of time. He who climbed higher than all others, will fall deeper than all others.

[Skybird]

Does Germany have the funds and will to make up for the shortfall in income to the EU post Brexit?
Funds are relative, since money is created at will by alchemists these days, value-securities are not needed anymore nor expected. The will? They maintain an intimidating front to Britain to penalise it and to scare away others wanting to do like Britain. But for Germany, the fall-away of Britain means the loss of the closest - before France! - ally in finacial discipline inside the eU, this is what makes the Brexit such a big headache for Germany, also that in the EU it is our most important trading partner. All others remaining, are against Germany, all want to spend more, more debts, more inflating and devaluing of money, more financing of rotting states by the ECB. and so forth. Italy wants it. Spain. France. Greece. Italy is stumbling. France is even bigger a thread to fall. Ticks sucking blood.

Its all a terrible mess, and it becomes messier every month and with every conference held by the ECB. Those TARGET2-saldi will one day fall down on Germany like a burning sky.

Its a long-known social-psychological dilemma, they have written books about it: when somebody has invested much into the wrong ways, he tends to stick even more to these wrong ways the deeper he manouvers himself into them - due to his fear that if he now gives up, all the earlier "investments" will be lost. By this "logic", he accepts to move from bad to worse and from big danger to guaranteed self destruction.

Let there be the German elections, and no matter who won them by then, after that the next government will be much more lenient again to allow Greece another escape, and more spending, and more debts, and more braking of legal obligations, treaties and laws. In the end, Germans, like everybody lse, prefer a horror without end to an end with horror.

By the end of tis century, we will see a very small elite in Europe ruling Europe in a very autocratic, if not openly tyrannic manner, with most of the material wealth focussed in even fewer hands than already now. On the way there we will go through various levels of intense violence and anarchy and and civil-war like rioting. When the new imerial order emerges, most people will even welcome it, just to feel at least physically safe again. But I forsee it will be life in poverty and misery and dictatorship. The writings aleady are ion the wall, but only few dare to open their eyes and read and take them as what they are. Because these writings on the wall as well predict a massive loss of all what has been invested in the past. And people just cannot imagin that this could happen. When bad luck or tragedy strikes people, usually the first question always is "Why me?"

Well - why not you? Even more since everybody is so eager to let it come this far?

So, Germany will carry on. It will pay for others with what today humorously and grotesquely gets called "money", and it is willing to do so. We will continue to do so until it really is too late and all is lost. Becasue as long as it is not to late and not all is lost, it still is not too late and not all is yet lost. Thats the simple logic behind it.

Bigger thread to the social peace over here is inflation killing private savings. Still, people are peaceful since most are not realyl understanding the danger and beleive the mainstream brainwash, and give their poltical loyalties more according to family habit than raisnable thnking, not to mention: insight into the real matter. This state cannot last forever.

Inflation increases just the QUANTITY of money, while deflation increases the QUALITY of money. That is somethign that even most politicians and bankers do not seem to understand. The needed cures all get prevented. The needed corrections are verboten. Social concerns lead the way into mass ruin. How social is that...?

[Oberon]

http://i.imgur.com/D015xAZ.jpg

[Catfish]

@ Skybird

But we do not have any inflation. Or we do have now, around 1 percent or 1.7, but only recently, not in the last decade.
Interest is so low, the banks almost pay you for lending mony from them. Paying back our house, currently 3 percent interest and the rest is real acquittance. We are not rich but we never had it better financially. Some refugees nearby, two have been working in our compoany for practice, one of them wants to become an electrician, the other will probaboy be going back and organise help for Sudan from here.

And it is of cause all so messy and bad here in Germany, nothing to eat and the people suffer from all those terrorist attacks.
Not me though, but i am apparently living somewhere else.

[Skybird]

You really believe that superficial simplicty called "official inflation" statistics, eh? ;) Please tell me you don't.

You increase the ammount of money in circulation day in day out, and you have no inflation. Sure. With every credit taken by somebody, banks created new "money" from nothing. But that is no inflation. Sure. The ECB accepting even the most toxic of waste papers as securities, giving out new money for them in return. But no inflation. Sure.

What you have, is clever abuse of statistics and suggestive catch phrases to hide the inflation. What you have, is delay of insolvency.

Its been lioke this excessively since the past coupld of years. But in principle it has been like this since decades. The D-Mark had lost over 80% of its buying power when it was replaced by the Euro - so much for "stable currency". The Dollar today has I think less than 2% of the buying power it had at the end of the civil war. But it is called a solid currency.

Stop believe the textbook propaganda. I instead recommend to you Roland Baader: the books Geldsozialismus, Kreide für den Wolf, Die betrogene Generation, or Christoph Braunschweig: Wohlfahrtsstaat - Leb Wohl!, Die demokratische Krankheit; or Weik & Friedrich: Der größte Raubzug der Geschichte, or Detlef Schlichter: Das Ende des Scheins, and of course anything by Alfred Hayek or Ludwig von Mises.

Its nice you pay little interest rates. But if you think the money in general has more value because of that and that there is no damage down to the whole system, then you just do not look far enough. Look beyond your garden's close horizon. BTW, as long as a single rate sitll is left, it is not your house, but the bank's house. You signed that at the vey beginning of it all. ;)

Artifically talked down interest rates so that people can buy houses who actually could not afford it - wasn't that at the beginning of the mortgage crisis in the US 15 years ago? If money would be so valuable as you say that there is no inflation - how comes that the stiockmarket is overheated (or do you believe the real economy has grown in real absolute worth by several factors within the past 15 years...? )

You could as well say there is no manipulation of the gold price. If the gold price would not be manipulated and would be allowed to move freely, it would be somehwhere between 2500 and 4000 by now, I estimate. If not even higher. Beeing seen as the clasiscal alarmometer, politics, governments and central banks cannot afford to let the gold price freely express the devaluation of paper money, it would bring the globe to a total and complete collapse immediately. The illusion must be supported. No. Matter. What.

QE - Quantitative Easing - is nothing else but artificially boosted inflation.

“Die Politik kann die ökonomischen Gesetze nicht außer Kraft setzen, aber sie kann so tun, als ob sie dazu in der Lage wäre. Leider dauert es eine ganze Weile, bis diese Täuschung ihre jeweils desaströsen Wirkungen voll entfaltet und damit offensichtlich wird. Bis dahin ist dann eine neue Generation an Wählern herangewachsen, der man den Bären vom Primat der Politik erneut aufbinden kann.” - Roland Baader.

[Skybird]

https://www2.pic-upload.de/img/32707108/D015xAZ.jpg (https://www.pic-upload.de/view-32707108/D015xAZ.jpg.html)



Corrected that for you.

[Skybird]

In German, and thus mainly for Catfish, but also for anyone who can understand written German:

Link - "Inflation - The papery suicide" (http://www.roland-baader.de/inflation-der-papierene-selbstmord/)


Von Lenin, der gewiss etwas von Revolution und Umsturz verstanden hat, soll der Satz stammen: „Wer die kapitalistische Gesellschaft zerstören will, muss ihr Geld zerstören.“ Skurrilerweise hat Lord Keynes das sicherste Mittel hierzu genannt, nämlich die Inflation.
What to learn from this? When within one or two generations only, things and stuff start to cost 30, 40, 50, 60 times (not percent, but factors!) as much than before, then you have inflation, and there is no use in trying to talk of "stable currencies".

[Skybird]

And here is the translation I was looking for, for a quote by Mises:

"There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as a result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved."

And more - sorry, cannot find it in English:

"Diese erste Phase des inflationären Prozesses kann viele Jahre andauern. In dieser Zeit haben sich die Preise vieler Güter und Dienstleistungen noch nicht den veränderten Geldverhältnissen angepasst. Einige Menschen im Land haben immer noch nicht erkannt, dass sich hier eine Preisrevolution vollzieht, die letztendlich zu einem deutlichen Ansteigen aller Preise führen wird, obgleich die unterschiedlichen Waren und Dienstleistungen nicht im gleichen Ausmaß steigen werden. Diese Menschen sind nun immer noch im Glauben, die Preise würden eines Tages auch wieder sinken. Im Warten auf diesen Tag schränken Sie ihr Kaufverhalten ein, wodurch ihre Geldbestände gleichzeitig anwachsen. Solange die öffentliche Meinung noch von solchen Vorstellungen geprägt ist, ist es noch nicht zu spät für die Regierung. Noch kann sie ihre inflationäre Politik aufgeben.

Doch dann wachen die Massen schließlich auf. Plötzlich wird ihnen klar, dass bewusst und vorsätzlich Inflationspolitik betrieben wird und dass sie kein Ende finden wird. Es kommt zum Zusammenbruch. Die Zeit der Katastrophenhausse ist gekommen. Jetzt ist jeder darauf bedacht, sein Geld schleunigst gegen "reale“ Güter einzutauschen, ganz gleich, ob er diese braucht oder nicht und ganz gleich, wie viel Geld er für sie bezahlen muss. Innerhalb sehr kurzer Zeit, innerhalb weniger Wochen oder gar Tage, werden die Dinge, die zuvor als Geld genutzt wurden, nicht mehr als Tauschmittel eingesetzt. Sie werden zu Altpapier, gegen das keiner mehr etwas eintauschen möchte."

This is not any difficult to understand at all. Its basic, profound, and simple.

[Catfish]

Tja, da musste die Banken abschaffen.
Viel Glück.

"... dann wachen "die Massen" auf? Echt? Wann sind denn die Massen das letzte Mal aufgewacht? Und was genau soll dann passieren? Wie gesagt, der Mensch lebt 70 Jahre, stirbt, und die Jungen wiederholen alle Fehler. Menschen sind dumm. Und wenn sie gerade mal eine Ahnung von der Realität bekommen, sind sie alt und niemand hört auf sie.

Das ist immer ein Zyklus, irgendwann kommt ein Crash, und dann eine Währungsreform. Immer wieder ad infinitum, solange wir dem goldenen Kalb des Kapitalismus huldigen. Denn Inflation ist die Basis für das Ganze.
Oder zeig mir wie der Kapitalismus ohne Banken funktioniert.

[Skybird]

Lets stick to Engliush, when possible, I gave the German quoted articles only because I did not find translations of them.

Capitalism doe snot need banks necessarily. Capitalism needs

- free markets that do not give you what you desire btu what xyiu can afford,

- "Warengeld" - a money of inherent material value, that gets its agreed value just by market interaction like any other good or commodity, and that state and politicians cannot reset at will and that they cannot inflate in total volume as they like, reaöl opneya IS just any commodity/good that isn suitable to serve as a saving format for value you do not want to spend immediately;

- and enough insight - as classical national economist,the ancestors of today's so-called Austrians had! - to see that while capitalism has an inherent drive toewards forming monoplism but that this monopilsm must be resisted to and must be prevfente djust like life itself has an inherent drive towards age and death, biut craves for trying to prevent dying as long as it can.

The misery starts when politicians promises miracles and wealth raining from heaven in order to get elected, and their private money does not suffice to pay for them. Then they steal it from the others, or the devalue the existing money by inflating its ammounts. The ruin evertyhing and everyone, just for their career. "Wählerbestechungsdemokratie" - voter bribery democracy.

What there is today - IS NO MONEY. It is a a poor surrogate for money. A money that has no inherent vlaue, IS NO MONEY. Just any token. Market must decide what gets accepted as money,a dn what money'S value is. And market must do that alone and unhindered by politicians.

Capitalism in principle needs no banks. Just free trade and free bartering. the rule of law and reason and reliability. Treaties who cannot be sued for when the yget violated. Even more so, since capitalists know that the term "capital" goes far beyond the reference to currency tokens only. Of all forms of capital there are, forged money, Parker's Monopoly notes, is the least important one! ;)

Aim your criticsm at monopolism, and you have my support. But you aim it the wrong target, the cure instead: capitalism. That is absurd.

Thge biggest monopolist, btw, is the state.

You want co control politicians and want to stop them before they have ruined it once again? Then you have to shoot them dead whenver they reach with their hands out for controlling, minting, defining the value of money. Its the worst poltical crime possible to do so, and the key to total control and absol,ute power: controlling the mints. Everybody should be allowed to run a mint if he wants, and no monopolies whatever should ever be accepted. Money must be a market function, never a political agenda.

[AndyJWest]

Nothing has 'inherent value'. The utility anything has depends entirely on circumstance.

[ikalugin]

Nothing has 'inherent value'. The utility anything has depends entirely on circumstance.
Sets of preferences are subjective and individual, yes.

[Skybird]

Nothing has 'inherent value'. The utility anything has depends entirely on circumstance.

Splitting hairs, the most favourite distracting tactics. Okay, here you get it:

inherent values get attributed by the negotiations of market participants, but the differnce is that they agree on the material value they attribute to ann item or token, may it be a sack of rice or a rare bird'S colourful feather or an ounce of gold. The maket decides these items' value, and that si their inhgerent value. With a bank note, it is different, you use bank notes for bartering not on basis of their material inherent vlaue - which is just the paper and the ink, so a million dollar note still would be worth just pennies in inherent value. The bank note nevertheless gets dealt with as if it had the material value printed on it.

But that is like an ounce of gold in simply bar format, or an ounce of gold minted in a medal or coin. For the coin, you would always pay a little bit more, but when you sell it back to the trader, he nevertheless will often just pay you back the current material value of th gold it contains - that is the inherent value of that 1 ounce of gold. Everything becond that is just a sentimental value. And sentimental valued items are bad items for building reserves and secure your savings in.

In the end, bank notes are no valuable items in themselves, they are FIAT money only, fiat from Latin: "it will be, it shall become". It means money, or value one hopes hat will materialise, so to speak, while it is no value in is current form. In fact a bank note is just a written certificate of debt, which would be okay if the value of the note that is printed on it would equal a security stored in the safe of the bank. You have one dollarnote, becasue it is easier to handle and smaller in weight, but for it you have a security stored at the bajk that equals this one dollar, may it be precious metla or anything else. It is like the ticket you get when you hand over your coat while visiting the opera - you have that ticket, and they have the coat. Yo give back the ticket, and you get back the coat.

Not with the money today! If you demand all money notes tobe turned into material assets again, the system would collapse after less than 1% of the paper money being exchnaged for gold, silver, palladium or whatever they had "in stock".

Two forms of credit there are, the one is reasonable and economically reliable, stable, the other paves the road to disaster. First, there is credit that bases on somebody else not consuming something, and what he saved by not consuming it himself, he lends to somebody. No dysbalance between real world assets and bilance credit in the books until here, everything is fine, you get a coat back when you hand over the ticket. The other form of credit is to hand out notes of debtness (=bank notes) for which no consumer items were saved, you effectively hand out these leafs of paper without them being backed by any securities. And this is lethal for every financial system and economy in the end, always, unavoidably. And this is what they do since over 100 years, excessively, and more and more excessively so. You do n ot get a coat when handing over your ticket, becasue nobody has handed them in a coat as a security in the first. There is no coat you could get.

We cannot escape the consequences of this stupidity. Some fall earlier than others, the sequences of players falling may vary a bit - but in the end falling they all will.


There is no coat you could get, I said above. Its like this with over 99% of the money the banks are doing business with currently!

We wanted to be so sly, we considered ourselves to be so clever with all these super-sly and super-clever "financial products", with all these ways of delaying to calculate the totals and to hide the lack of securities. We are so much at ease with our well-thought out mechnaisms and the big locks on th doors of the safe.

The problem just is: this safe is empty. Your claim for your share of its content, gets you nothing. And all this becasue we beleive ruthless poltical basters telling us that we could endlessly live beyind our means and spend more than we can afford, and that money can be multiplied infinitely by the magic of alchemy. But money MUST be limited in total, global availability, only then it can have any inherent value. Without inherent, market-negotiated value, without money being an ordnary trading good like all others, it is no money, but fraud and theft.

The day the huge masses realise this, is the day when war breaks out in Europe's streets.

Okay. Now I just wait for somebody reminding us of that "you cannot eat gold"; or something different that nevertheless is as clever. For example "Try to buy a leaf of bread with your 1 ounce gold bar". Its pointless remarks like these that really make my day.

[AndyJWest]

No, I am not 'splitting hairs'. Gold has value because people decide it has. So does currency, 'fiat' or otherwise. There is nothing inherent about value in either. 'Value' is a social construct, not a physical property, as your own attempts to define the value make clear. You are simply misusing the word. It doesn't mean what you are trying to make it mean. As for the rest of your arguments, I am no great fan of the capitalist system myself, so I have no need to defend it, beyond suggesting that solutions to the many inequties it brings are unlikely to be found through the accumulation of shiny rocks.

[Skybird]

1200 dollars in physical gold (currently around 1 ounce), is not the same like a stash of 1200 1-dollar notes. Either you eat a real pie, then you can enjoy it, or you just imagine to eat a pie whose taste and sweetness and dough only exists in your imagination . But don't tell both were the same, the real thing and the imagined thing. I prefer the real pie every time, and if you think your fanatsy eases your appetite, then trade me your material pie so that that burden is off your shoulders, and I eat the rela thing then and tell you how sweet it tastes - then we both have what we wanted to get: me the pie, and you your imagine. - Lefties and capitalism-haters dont like that, I know. Still, market laws are behaving like natural laws a bit - they never bow to ideology or wishful thinking. If you violate them, you cannot avoid forever the consequences of doing so - they find you sooner or later. Nothing ever gets forgotten, not a single taler gets lost. The debts will be paid for down to the last Taler - and often the currency then is pain and suffering and national disaster.

[AndyJWest]

1200 dollars in physical gold (currently around 1 ounce), is not the same like a stash of 1200 1-dollar notes. Either you eat a real pie, then you can enjoy it, or you just imagine to eat a pie whose taste and sweetness and dough only exists in your imagination . But don't tell both were the same, the real thing and the imagined thing. I prefer the real pie every time, and if you think your fanatsy eases your appetite, then trade me your material pie so that that burden is off your shoulders, and I eat the rela thing then and tell you how sweet it tastes - then we both have what we wanted to get: me the pie, and you your imagine. - Lefties and capitalism-haters dont like that, I know. Still, market laws are behaving like natural laws a bit - they never bow to ideology or wishful thinking. If you violate them, you cannot avoid forever the consequences of doing so - they find you sooner or later. Nothing ever gets forgotten, not a single taler gets lost. The debts will be paid for down to the last Taler - and often the currency then is pain and suffering and national disaster.

Sorry, how does me pointing out that your own arguments demonstrate that the value of gold is a social construct constitute a 'fantasy'?

As for the rest, I think we are all familiar with your chicken little obsessions and your belief that failure to follow the ludicrous tenets of the von Mises cult will lead to the imminent collapse of civilisation. As a demonstration of faith, perhaps such obsessiveness deserves applause, but as evidence of critical thinking from someone who appears to have a little historical knowledge, it is risible. And no, there is nothing remotely 'natural' about the market. People create it. People break it. And the natural world doesn't give two hoots either way.

[ikalugin]

Any opinions regarding the security conference?

[Skybird]

We simply do an experiment. You take your 100 paper dollars, and I take my 3 grams of physical gold, and then we head into a failed state with persecution, black market and a currency that is hyperinflating 200% every day and essentially is broken down. And then we see who can barter with what he has - you with your 100 paper tokens that after one hour already have lost significant value again and does so every minute and every hour coming, or me with my three grams of gold. I am extremely confident that my bucket will be several times as full than yours every time we do this.

I have 10 thousand years of history of mankind and gold and bartering on my side. You have 800 and something years of history of failing paper money experiments - every single one of them! - on yours. When we get on the black market, we soon find out who finds somebody to barter with, and who get something and who gets nothing. Even if the price of gold can rise and drop widely - SOMETHING you always get for it. You cannot say the same about banknotes, as history has already proven many times. And then even you will know what the difference between banknotes without and physical items with inherent market value is. ;) There is a reason why states that want to enforce the use of their forged money need to prohibit rivalling physical tokens with intrinsic, inherent value. Man's preferences here are very clear - since centuries.

Its getting tiresome to explain these very same fundamentals, these very same essential basic fundamentals time and again. And when you say you dislike capitalism anyway, then it is especially hopeless anyway. But your socialist ways (since the opposite of capitalism is planned economy, there is no third option) will never work - and the simple reason is that man simply is not what socialism would like him to be, and asking a life form constantly to be somethign different than what it is, is against its nature and thus will never succeed over time. And pressure to enforce complainac eof this kind just will create violence in self-defence.

[ikalugin]

We simply do an experiment. You take your 100 paper dollars, and I take my 3 grams of physical gold, and then we head into a failed state with persecution, black market and a currency that is hyperinflating 200% every day and essentially is broken down. And then we see who can barter with what he has - you with your 100 paper tokens that after one hour already have lost significant value again and does so every minute and every hour coming, or me with my three grams of gold. I am extremely confident that my bucket will be several times as full than yours every time we do this.I would love to see this being done. Why? - would you ask. Because this implies that US is a failed state with currency that is hyperinflating 200% every day.

If this is not the case and people in the country in question understand what USD banknotes are (and we have to assume that for the experiment to be fair) then the person with cash is more likely to be better off, simply because it is more convenient to use money instead of the physical gold. I mean 3 grams is like a 1/6th of a cubic milimeter of gold, it is pretty hard to split it into 100 units to exchange it.

Regarding the rationality of that choice (apart from the convenience factor which is quite clearly there) - assuming that the USD is not hyperinflating and maintains it's buying power, then in that specific scenario there is little difference (apart from convenience, which is on the side of the USD banknotes), as what the person in question cares about is the value others assighn to the USD (and hence - it's purchasing power) which, the last time I checked, was quite good.
In fact in real hyperinflating situations (ie Russia in the 90s) foreighn currences were prefered to the gold and other such means.

Regarding gold - it's value is a subjective construct, if it was used just a regular good it would hold little value as there are few practical applications for it. The only difference between gold and cash (and other forms of money - I mean apart from metal and paper and now digintal money there were many, many others) is that it's value has been assighned by people for longer (which means little) and the money mass tends to not change rapidly (though we did see that happen with the other kinds of metal money - ie copper coins).

One could argue that this lack of change in the monetary mass (and the lack of convenience) is highly detrimental, as the money mass could not expand after the expansion of the economy, precluding the consumers from buying goods that they are otherwise capable of buying, as their demand is not supported by their liquid reserves.

[AndyJWest]

"10 thousand years of history of mankind"? You are simply making things up.

[Skybird]

Gold digging done by humans since ~5500 before Christ, maybe even earlier - plus 2000 years since Christ, makes 7600 years.

Plus minus some more or less. Big deal.

Its one of the earliest metals man learned to work on.

[Skybird]

I would love to see this being done. Why? - would you ask. Because this implies that US is a failed state with currency that is hyperinflating 200% every day.

If this is not the case and people in the country in question understand what USD banknotes are (and we have to assume that for the experiment to be fair) then the person with cash is more likely to be better off, simply because it is more convenient to use money instead of the physical gold. I mean 3 grams is like a 1/6th of a cubic milimeter of gold, it is pretty hard to split it into 100 units to exchange it.

Regarding the rationality of that choice (apart from the convenience factor which is quite clearly there) - assuming that the USD is not hyperinflating and maintains it's buying power, then in that specific scenario there is little difference (apart from convenience, which is on the side of the USD banknotes), as what the person in question cares about is the value others assighn to the USD (and hence - it's purchasing power) which, the last time I checked, was quite good.
In fact in real hyperinflating situations (ie Russia in the 90s) foreighn currences were prefered to the gold and other such means.

Regarding gold - it's value is a subjective construct, if it was used just a regular good it would hold little value as there are few practical applications for it. The only difference between gold and cash (and other forms of money - I mean apart from metal and paper and now digintal money there were many, many others) is that it's value has been assighned by people for longer (which means little) and the money mass tends to not change rapidly (though we did see that happen with the other kinds of metal money - ie copper coins).

One could argue that this lack of change in the monetary mass (and the lack of convenience) is highly detrimental, as the money mass could not expand after the expansion of the economy, precluding the consumers from buying goods that they are otherwise capable of buying, as their demand is not supported by their liquid reserves.
http://alphahistory.com/weimarrepublic/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/inflation.jpeg

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-3jGYwD1MuPg/U5vA2RFZAUI/AAAAAAAAJa8/URfuZvx8LlU/s1600/Children+playing+with+stacks+of+hyperinflated+curr ency+during+the+Weimar+Republic,+1922.jpg

http://prepare-and-protect.net/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/congdon-hyperinflation.jpg

http://de.academic.ru/pictures/dewiki/76/Lot3_rev.jpg
500,000 and 5,000,000 and 10,000,000 and 50,000,000 Reichmsark notes.

http://de.academic.ru/pictures/dewiki/53/5_milliarden_mark.jpg
5,000,000,000 Mark.

http://de.academic.ru/pictures/dewiki/49/100-Billionen-Geldschein-2.jpg


100,000,000,000,000 Mark.

My apology if you got dizzy from the many zeros. Imagine the taste of a leaf of bread costing several million Mark, maybe that helps you to get back your balance.

[AndyJWest]

Gold digging done by humans since ~5500 before Christ, maybe even earlier - plus 2000 years since Christ, makes 7600 years.

Plus minus some more or less. Big deal.

Its one of the earliest metals man learned to work on.

Yup. People have dug for gold for a long time. They have also whittled wood, weaved baskets and climbed trees to get coconuts. Big deal. Proves precisely nothing about the value ascribed to such things as being 'natural' or 'inherent'. Because it isn't. If gold has 'value', it is because people think it does. And because they believe in an abstraction called 'value'. Ask a physicist. If he wants to know the mass of something, he can measure it. Likewise the density. Or the coefficient of expansion. 'Value' though? All he can do is look up the price - which simply tells him what other people will swap it for. Don't need a physicist to do that, because it isn't a physical attribute.

[Catfish]

[...] If gold has 'value', it is because people think it does. And because they believe in an abstraction called 'value'. ...

:up:
Like .. money.

[Skybird]

You guys are a kind of a gang, I tell you.

http://www.sbcgold.com/blog/the-intrinsic-value-of-gold-and-silver/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intrinsic_value_(numismatics)

[ikalugin]

My apology if you got dizzy from the many zeros. Imagine the taste of a leaf of bread costing several million Mark, maybe that helps you to get back your balance.
I mean that is fine, just irrelevant. Because if you are trying to use the German hyperinflation case in the gold vs cash USD model you have introduced above, then those piramids of cash are irrelevant, as they represent local hyperinflating currency and not foreighn (assumed to not be hyperinflating) currency - the USD for example.

You guys are a kind of a gang, I tell you.

http://www.sbcgold.com/blog/the-intr...ld-and-silver/ (http://www.sbcgold.com/blog/the-intrinsic-value-of-gold-and-silver/)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intrin...e_(numismatics (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intrinsic_value_%28numismatics))
Well and you prove us right, because it breaks down to two things - how much value people attribute to a means of exchange (which is subjective) and how convenient it is to use (where paper and more so electronic money win against gold, that 100 USD in cash vs monetary gold example is great, as it shows how inconvenient gold actually is).

The subjective value attribution is the important bit, because if you call that process natural then you view humans as objects rather than subjects and thus deny them agency.

[AndyJWest]

You guys are a kind of a gang, I tell you.

http://www.sbcgold.com/blog/the-intrinsic-value-of-gold-and-silver/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intrinsic_value_(numismatics)

So, a gold-bullion dealer's website claims that gold has 'intrinsic value'? Whoop-de-doo. And a garbled Wikipedia article written by random blokes on the internet, citing no sources for anything whatsoever, and not actually supporting anything of any significance anyway? If this is the best you can come up with I suggest you find a new topic for your millennialist doom-mongering: if you are stuck for ideas, I was just reading about the theory that extracting oil from the ground reduces lubrication for the tectonic plates, and if continued unchecked will lead to civilisation-destroying earthquakes. Should be good for a week or two's Eeyorish* prognostications.

*I assume a man as well-read as you is familiar with Winnie the Pooh? If not, I recommend the tale of the honey-pot gift as a lesson in value as a social construct. Constructed on the fly by a bear of little (but sufficient) brain with a sweet tooth and no self-control. :03:

[Catfish]

[...]I was just reading about the theory that extracting oil from the ground reduces lubrication for the tectonic plates, and if continued unchecked will lead to civilisation-destroying earthquakes. [...] :03:

:o Don't give Trump ideas :timeout:
:haha:


@Skybird we certainly know what you mean. Plutonium in purest form is even more worth, but also difficult to handle. Gold is the quasi-standard, of course. But when aliens from a planet of pure gold landed here, the price would fall. If more gold is being excavated and cast, the price will also fall.

It is with gold, as it is with diamonds. DeBeers owns all resource sites, and punishes everyone who interferes. It is an artificial rareness, because there are so much diamonds in the world, all women of the world would break down trying to wear them. There is also more than enough gold.

If there was a real worldwide crisis, affecting all (really all), you can then try to eat your gold, or try to sell it. Good luck.
I just can advise you, if you want to buy gold, buy it in bullion form. No necklaces, no Krugerrand. Gold is not worth that much, unless it is cast bullion form, with the exact weight and the casting institution stamped on it.

Don't try to resell gold in other form, or a diamond. Even worse than buying a new car, considering the loss of value within the first year.

[ikalugin]

Both diamonds and gold have -some- industrial uses.

But what I am more interested is - does anyone have any good insights into the recent security conference? I mean it is a decade after the historic speach: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YGF95EB6qhI

[Skybird]

Since world war 2, there have been over 50 hyperinflations in several nations worldwide. Hyperinflation if defined as a yearly inflation rate above 50%.

Smaller high-inflations not counted. Then you would be in the three-digit range. Deeply. Where there are paper money regimes, there are inflations. That is the purpose of why politicians have enforced paper money regimes, the only reason why paper money was enforced. So that politicians no longer get limited in their spending frenzies by market inhibitions and limited availability of tradable quantities of something (money in this case). If our money would be based on - for example - gold instead of toilet paper, we would not have the insane debts there are today - it is not possible to raise such debts with limited quantities of money. At least if people do not endlessly accept mere claims without securities as a payment.

The point is that limited availability is what raises the market value of something's intrinsic value, and huge availability reduces its intrinsic/market value. Thats is why paper money is worth nothing. It can get inflated in quantity as you pleases. Single grains of sand are worth nothign for the same reason.The hyperinflation money in the picture at least has had the intrinsic value to be used to fire ovens.

That precious metals trader got it right. That he uses the definition of intrinsic value correctly for his advertising does not change the fact that he correctly explains the term as it is being used and understood in economics. Because that is what it is: a known term used in economics. You cannot just stroll along in this form and redefine it and distort it so that it suddenly fits your queer worldviews. "Up" still ranks above "bottom" and "front" before "back" - even if you claim that it would be better if it would not mean this, but something different.

---

And now back to the topic. German politics.

[ikalugin]

And now back to the topic. German politics.
Sure.

Any interesting political developments comming up?

[Oberon]

Well...it is Ger-money... :hmmm: :03:

[Catfish]

Sure.

Any interesting political developments coming up?

Russian cyber interference in the next german elections? :D
Just trolling :). But act wisely.. Trump wants to destroy the EU because it is the only organisation that has the economical power to compete with the US. And he's of course using the UK 'brexit'.. I do not know whether it is really in Russia's interest to hurt the EU, but if Trump does not want to trade anymore.. there is always Russia.

[Skybird]

Russian cyber interference in the next german elections? :D
Just trolling :). But act wisely.. Trump wants to destroy the EU because it is the only organisation that has the economical power to compete with the US. And he's of course using the UK 'brexit'.. I do not know whether it is really in Russia's interest to hurt the EU, but if Trump does not want to trade anymore.. there is always Russia.

Yes, both Trump and Putin want to destroy the EU. Divide et impera. Trumps economic America has greater weight if he does individual deals with single nations. Russians has it easier to dominate European poltics and decision making if not dealing with a "united" front", but a fractured group, and can drive a wedge between America and Europe.

[ikalugin]

Yes, both Trump and Putin want to destroy the EU. Divide et impera. Trumps economic America has greater weight if he does individual deals with single nations. Russians has it easier to dominate European poltics and decision making if not dealing with a "united" front", but a fractured group, and can drive a wedge between America and Europe.
Unitied, independent EU would be better for us, as it would be competing with US. The problem with EU that we have is not that it is strong (it is not) but that it is weak and it's external policy is highjacked by third parties.

[Oberon]

Yes, both Trump and Putin want to destroy the EU. Divide et impera. Trumps economic America has greater weight if he does individual deals with single nations. Russians has it easier to dominate European poltics and decision making if not dealing with a "united" front", but a fractured group, and can drive a wedge between America and Europe.

The EU wants to destroy the EU.

[Catfish]

[...] Russians has it easier to dominate European poltics and decision making if not dealing with a "united" front", but a fractured group, and can drive a wedge between America and Europe.

Only that like the UK, countries like France, Poland and others will probably be the wedge themselves, with their nationalist movements.
Then Romania, Hungary, and Greece.

No one speaks about Austria anymore though, seems their nationalists got direct blow in the face, at least for now :hmmm:

[ikalugin]

Well, are there any interesting developments in Germany? What about the upcomming elections?

[Catfish]

The EU wants to destroy the EU.

Not most of the EU countries. At least not until their right wing populists have the majority.

#MakeTheNetherlandsGreatAgain

Problem is that if every country tries to be "great", it usually leads to a neighbour having to be smaller. Unless all would be great on an equal footing.
But then we would have something like the EU, god Trump forbid.

[ikalugin]

Not most of the EU countries. At least not until their right wing populists have the majority.

#MakeTheNetherlandsGreatAgain

Problem is that if every country tries to be "great", it usually leads to a neighbour having to be smaller. Unless all would be great.

But then we would have something like the EU, god Trump forbid.
You can always join Mother Russia.

[Catfish]

You can always join Mother Russia.

You bet :D

Though i do not really trust Putin or his forerunners (excluding Gorbatchev and, partially, Yeltsin), i had high hopes at the high time of the "Petersburger Dialog", but the exchange has become considerably colder after the Ukraine and Krim events.
Apart from the US having had a direct interest in Europe and West Germany after the war (for political reasons and marketing), it does not make so much sense for Europe now, in exclusively having trade with a country 4000 km away over the sea, while ignoring a direct neighbour who can be easily reached by terrestrial transports.
But.. sanctions.

Can Russia be a reliable partner now? It would have been possible in the 199ies, before we all screwed that up, but now?

[ikalugin]

I mean the Russian meta narrative was finilised back in 2007, in Putin's speach in Munich. It has been the same for 10 years.

[Skybird]

German defence ministress :D - lets use a gender-politically correct formulation - von der Leyen indicated that she still underestimates (at least would love to underestimate) the severity of the American demand for more German defence spendings.

At the same time there are real resistences in the defence ministry to reasonably spend more money, the supercomplex internal structure of this nuthouse is against that, it seems, I call it "institutional friction" that bogs down any additonal injction of money into the defence budget. I knew and know some BW boys who leave no good hair on the German defence ministry's competence.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/pressure-on-germany-to-increase-defense-spending-for-nato-a-1135192.html

Not in the linked text, but we had it in the media over here, and I saw it on TV one or two days ago:

On the other hand, the SPD's Sigmar Gabriel, now the new foreign clown minister of the German Order of the Holy Mission to Enlighten the World, already said he sees no reason to spend more money, and one should not be so quick with doing that, since a believable defence policy would necessarily vitally base on economic aid to poor countries in the third world to give people there a perspective, and that these sums of money spent by Germany must be counted as part of Germany's defence budegt.

In how far Russia get deterred by German money presents to failed states and corrupted governments in Africa and the Middle East, he did not care to explain to an uncritical audience. And why should he care to exlain it, if nobody of those people asked him for that explanation anyway.

[ValoWay]

I think Trump's US tries to downplay the strategic value and their interest in europe. They imply that they do not really need europe and would fare very well without it what in his mind makes us panic so that we agree to everything he says or wants!

In reality, however, the US benefits a whole lot from the EU's, especially germany's geographically position in a potential conflict with russia. Not to mention their use of europe to store nuclear weapons and as a staging ground for operations in the middle east!

I mean, if nato rules dictate 2% of GDP no matter what it is fair enough to point that out but other countries could also point at america and demand lower co2 emissions or greater participation in the refugee crisis?

Trump is trying to pull businessman tactics on the world by lowballing its importance and making himself more valuable than he actually is.

I'm convinced that the longer his term goes the weaker he will appear in the eyes of the ones who voted him cause actual white house business is something completely different than talking bollocks on twitter..

[Skybird]

But NATO'S always was mainyl anoiut defending Europe - a Sowjet attack on North America was much less feared. The nuclear doctrine came in due to being conventioanlly outnumbered. The nuclera arms race was triggered by the Us, not the USSR (which should not imply that the USSR would not got it started if thy woulkd have been in the nuclear lead in the beginnign years).

If America does not show interest anymore to defend Europe if Europe does too little by itself - why then should the US have an interest to keep Germany as a front state in a defensive war against Russia - to defend Europe that the US it is not interested in defending any longer? :ping:

Anyhow, I think Russia is strong enough to destabilise and win some Eastern territories , yes - but it canot overrole all of Western Europe anymore with one big red steam roller like 30, 40 years ago. Its all about Eastenr Eruope,m and the baltic when we tlak about "defending against Russia". That Russia aism ate Germany with its propaganda and destabilzation effort, is due to Germany's economic and political lead role. Divide et impera.

To keep an enemy away, however, always is easier, than to digging him out once he move din and fortified. Thus, defending Eastern Europe and the Baltic must be the top priupority. If Russia would manage to win these territories, I cannot imagine that NATO has the mans to kick them out again. Not materialistically, and not by the psychological attitude of the European people. We do not want to fight any more, and use physicla forc eourselves, and we are a shrinking and aging population, with the loyalties of the masses of foreigners rushing in from the Muslim countries especially being very much in doubt. Its not as if these millions coming in would automatically adapt to us and integrate. Yesterday I read with somne horror that Turkish migrant women in Germany do not have smaller but HIGHER birth rates than Turkish women staying behind in Turkey. That is not in support of this - sinc elong unproven - thesis. Similar trends in France, Sweden, Britain. Already in the early next decade every third person staying in Germany, by then will be of an originally Muslim descent. The native local population in Europe is shrinking everywhere, the foriegn populatiosn, espoecially from muslim coutnies, are in steep raise, not to say: an explosion of birth rates in some instances.

As I also read currently in a comparing book I mentioned in other threads already, (the decline of the Roman republic and the raise of the imperial Roman tyranny), this is one of the many parallels between Rome at the time of Augustus, and the EU today. In Rome it were the falling birth rates due to the good life forming higher appreciation and material freedom for respect of individual freedom and enjoying lkife, which came at the cost of less willingness to take on the burden of foundiogn families, and the the many slaves that got freed at that tiem and that were foreigners, nevertheless gained imemdiate Roman citizenship.

The native historically grown feeling of identity and the values of the native culture were in substantial decline, while forgn views and cultural habits pressed intot the city with almost irrestsitable numerical power. The situaiton became so dire that the Roman legions feared they could not get enough soldiers from native Romans any longer that also were wealthy enough to pay for their equipment. This is the real reason why Sulla reformed the army and turned it into a professional standing army that was paid for and equipped by the state, not privately.

Have I said beforte that I am stunned by that book?! It is brilliant and the quoites, hisotric sources and empoiral evidnece collected by the highly educated author is stunning. If you are interested in Roman history and speak French or German:

David Engels

LINK - Le Déclin : La crise de l'Union européenne et la chute de la république romaine, analogies historiques (https://www.amazon.fr/D%C3%A9clin-europ%C3%A9enne-r%C3%A9publique-analogies-historiques/dp/2810005249/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1487633285&sr=8-1&keywords=david+engels)

LINK - (https://www.amazon.de/Auf-dem-Weg-ins-Imperium/dp/3944305450/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1487633349&sr=8-1&keywords=david+engels)Auf dem Weg ins Imperium: Die Krise der Europäischen Union und der Untergang der Römischen Republik. Historische Parallelen (https://www.amazon.de/Auf-dem-Weg-ins-Imperium/dp/3944305450/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1487633349&sr=8-1&keywords=david+engels)


Funny to read historians and contemporary observers and witnesses from 2000 years ago saying and writing stuff that could have been meant to adress the EU today.

No, wait. Not funny at all. Depressing. It means we have not learnt some important lessons.

[Oberon]

You think Rome might recall its Legions? Not yet, but if the US gets involved in a big war elsewhere...like China for example, then the Legions might have to get recalled.
As for why the US should defend Europe, well it's down to spheres of influence really, isn't it? The EU, like it or not, has always been in the US SOI, there have been some overlapping in Eastern Europe between the EU SOI and Russias SOI and part of that is what caused the Ukrainian war, and may yet start one in Belarus.
If the US unilaterally withdraws from Europe and goes into pre-WWI mode, then there's two options, either the EU gets strong enough to stand on its own two feet, or it falls under Russian SOI...given how things have been going with the rise of the far-right and the resurgence of nationalism in Europe my money would be on the latter, starting with the Eastern European states and slowly extending eastward into Germany. The UK would probably stay under the US SOI because we're Washingtons lapdogs, but Germany eastward would be screwed. France would probably just try to stay neutral and Spain...who knows what Spain would do.
So, that's a lot of economic, military and manpower falling under the Russian SOI, and the US's place in the world becomes a much less secure thing...it goes from being the only superpower to being a regional power, much like China. Without Europe to transition through, it gets harder to reach Middle Eastern fronts, so they get abandoned...Israel goes even further to the right and may go full Samson if the Middle East ever got organised enough to do something about Israel, although chances are the Iran/Saudi war would go nuclear before then, and then it would likely wind up with Israel retaliating on both of them after they send a handful of missiles to Israel which will Iron Dome them. Oil prices go to Mars and Russia becomes incredibly rich, which means it can pimp out its armed forces to Soviet levels, and start exherting political power abroad further than Syria...to Africa and South America perhaps.

Sooner or later, the US is faced with the reality that isolating itself was a stupid maneuver, and now the rest of the world is re-arranging itself into a post-American power bloc structure, and the rest of the world together is a lot stronger than America on its lonesome. At around this point things then go down the toilet 1941 style.

[Catfish]

[...] If the US unilaterally withdraws from Europe and goes into pre-WWI mode, then there's two options, either the EU gets strong enough to stand on its own two feet, or it falls under Russian SOI..
Which is amongst other things like science and ERASMUS, why we thank England so much for the 'brexit'. The EU was about to create a combined military force, when suddenly national movements decided they were stronger alone.
The EU may be corrupt and incapable in some aspects (something that of course never happens within national governments lmao), but don't get me started what it would be like with isolated nationalistic states again.

England has alway had some interest on the continent, and if it was only to try to prevent a union or continental states working together. "Divide et impera". But now England would not profit from it, regardless what types like Farage and his ilk purport.

There is international trade and globalisation, stock exchange and money-lending taking place across the world in seconds, and the financial center is in London, with Frankfurt at the second position. There is of course also a lot of illegal money, but the main thing is that London profits from the European federal bank EZB to pump money into the market. As soon as this stops, the whole financial bubble will burst.
Which is maybe not even a bad thing, but England will anything but profit from that scenario.

[Skybird]

If money is already not paid for the established military defence network - NATO - then why would I assume that the unneeded erection and maintaining of a military parallel structure that more or less, estimated by handsight , doubles the total costs, would be paid for. Europe needs to strengthen its stand inside NATO instead. And by that, ti would also win a bigger say in NATO. Ideally, i think Europeans should shoulder 55-60% of the defence costs of NATO, since it is mainly European interests NATO is defending, European soil, European freedom. A Russian invasion into North America probably nobody has ever seriously considered.

As of the EU, the EU of the kind it is now must go. This doe snot mean to fall back into poure nationalism or national state thinking, but the EU as it is now is driven by narcissistic ######## who cannot stand to be reduced in meaning, glory and power, and the material interests iof these honourable and super competent gentlemen and that of the many bureaucrats in the massive bureaucratric apparatus are at stake as well. The EU I consider to be non-reformable. And we can nicels see it in the debt crisis and the Euro crisis and the current ritual - not more it is - abot Greece's needed money support (what a BG SUPRISE that they again need oney, how should one have forseen that years ago after the first rescues?) One just moves on as always, does the same fake shows and stage dramas, and nothign chnages, and so deeper and deeper into the mess it all slides.

The EU must go, but it will not go voluntarily, if however it would be gone, it should be replaced with a new economic cooperation union of much smaller size, with members fitting better and that are more comparable. Many links in the chain do not stengthen a chain if these links are weak. Any chain only is as strong as its weakest link. Total number of member states is relatively unimportant.

It also cannot be any longer that the fincially net receivers and the weakest economic players have athe same saying and the same voting power like those paying in multiple times as much. In the ECB currently the net receivers have a voting majoirty over those nations who are net payers. With the forseeable result. Draghi's plundering policy and illegal state financing doctrine, hidden behing many twisted words, are the result of that.

I insist on it: Europe and the EU, are two very different things. What counts, should be Europe, not the EU. However, for cultural, historical and demographical reasons things do not look shiny for Europe anyway. One cannot help it, this is a cultural sphere that is in fall. It will lead either to a hige dictatorship, or plenty of chaos and the corpus shreddered by others, mainly Islam. Could also be that the foreign relgion that we now breed inside our home will be declared state relgion by a possible European dictatorship, to enforce compliance and thus stability like it was done with Chriostoan religion in Rome, when it was declared the Roman state religion.

You gotta love these outlooks.

That we allow the EU and the progressive thinkers to intentionally destroy the most fundamental identity-building social-cultural core cell - the family, which stands at the very beginning of the progressive line core family-bigger family-tribe-people-nation-culture - just to destroy right these later terms and replace such identiy feelings in people with artificial, lifeless, universalistic, non-indiviual EU-nomatized "values", also does not help, of course. Plus it does its share to reducing birth rates, due to the individual freedoms being put above communal interests. Lets face it, individual interests and communal interests, for exmaple freely living your secuality without needing to fear the biological (and biologically wnated) consequences, and society's vital survival interests, are mutually exclszuive. The more of the one, the less of the other you have. The massive individual rights agreed on in today'S West go at the huge cost of keepign the institution of the family strong. No wonder then that people are being raised wiothout identity and orientation and just can be led around by their nose like cattle and believe just any other cultural set of values, no matter how set-back it may be, is as good as their own -s ince they have no feeling and no understanding of "own" lived identity, since they have no living own identity - jus this aticial lifeless universalistic, generlaised bureaucratic constructions from the EU's engineer labs.

Many people, more an dmore people, feel increasingly uncomfortable about this cultural rape by the EU, since forming group identity is inbuild into us due to it it now being evolutionary encoded in our genes. We do want to be part not of some infinte, vague mass of somethingl but a peer group, a social and cultural framework that defeines what and who we are, and what and who we are not. Its very profound, very basic, its in our psychological and even cognitive! fundament. And that is why the native population in Europe will more and more become aggressive, towards the EU, towards enforced imigration, towards the foreign itself that gets imported and enforced by clueless polticians in far too high numbers. The demonised "populists" are just the beginning, and they are here to stay, and to grow. They are a natural reaction to the abuses the intellectual "elite" is punishing Europe with. Helping this all probably will not. Europe is already lost for the native Eurppeans. The onyl question is if in the new European cultural regime somethign of the old value system of the Christian-Judaic and Greek-Roman origin will survive, or if it will all be totally subjugated and wiped out by foreign powers that are far less tolerant and "mutli-cultural" than naive Europeans today are.

[Catfish]

^ Why do you think Europe is so bad off with the Eu, and having free trade along with freedom to move around, within Europe? Do you think this will remain after a Eu meltdown? Dream on!
England did not even sign the Schengen treaty, but it still uses "immigrants" as a reason for their 'brexit'. It already had all kinds of special treaties deviating from the EU, but the people did not even know that. This is all flying bs. It is about fear, and nationalist pride, and a "gut feeling".

As i said there is of course a lot of bureaucrcy and corruption in the EU. This is normal and also present in all national governments though, and obviously just human.

Funny enough with all the work awaiting England to now negotiate with all single nations bilaterally, it will need much more experts and "bureaucrats" than the UK currently has. This means a time of too few, a time to train, and then to pay all those new legions. And with what, if London loses its financial appeal.

The only help against the money-pumping European Federal Bank EZB and inflation would be a strict policy and laws against certain illegal national financial transactions and zero interest, but the UK does not want that! It is one of the reasons just of all the UK wants to leave the EU! :haha:
England does not want corrective measures against the inflation, it would burst the London bubble, it would be seen as against the banks, free trade of shares internationally, and anti-capitalist. But whatever happens, don't blame the Eu anymore!

Regarding Skybird and native Europeans dieing out versus the muslim battalions churning out kids and future armies of terrorists, undermining the german family cell.. as if i heard chancellor Kohl talking :doh:

[Skybird]

Globalized free trade also can have massive social and financial costs. its not just gains for everybody. Several studies have showed that over the past couple of years. Free trade can cause - and does cause - distortions in the social/communal/cultural structre of different societies that balance , sometimes completely counter the gains. Its not all just shine and roses. Like currency unions only have a chance to work for some time if all participants are on a comparing economic and financial performance level (which in the Eurozone is not the case, that is why it is such a spectacular disaster) , global free trade must be put in question because it ignores that the various zones participating in it are of very different development, skill and performance standards. these difference do not get neutralised by just having free trade - they get instead accentuated and by this strengthened.

Criticism of CETA, TIP and TTIP by demonstrating grassroot activists and organizations, ist to a prominent degree right about this.



Free movement was never something I signed in for to the degree the concept is propagated today. Local, native populations of a region, a country that they call home - another of these uncomfrotable "identity" things - have all right there could be to refuse foreigners permission to roam in their home land or cross the border at will. I have repeatedly argued that for this very reason i strictly oppose the genral universla right for asylum as it is claimed today. It is a violation of most profound human rights of already residing, native populations of a place.

You are free to move at your will only where you travel land that is not beign claimed and is not used and lived on by already existring human settlers and communities. How often must I repeat this? Foreigners have no claim for life in our country. Not. At. All. All they are allowed to, is to ask. And we are free to say Yes or No, and to ask them what they could contribute to us in return for being allowed to stay.Exotic folk dancing and selling flowers in the streets are not what would make me change my mind. And last but not least, I demand foreigners to be able to support themselves. In germany, this demand alone already turns me into a heartless monster and a Nazi.

After all, it is this free movement right that causes plenty of growing uncomfort and unrest amongst European population. The probolem is less the German worker working across the danish border, or the Dutch coming over the day to aGerman border town, but the many foreigners from beyond Europe that abuse this to just freely roam across Europe as they like, as if they would call this palce theirs.
You can think of this any way you want, Catfish, but one thign you cannot deny: these things happening today in extremis have caused plenty of unrest, anger, hostility, and growing discomfort amongst native populations. It has had tremedous effect in forming up those critical moveemnts that today get in generally defamed as "populists".

I hinted one posting above at why there is this growing resitence. I also have pointed at that the same happened at the end of the first Roman republic, which led to the establishing of the imperial order and the military dictatorship it effectively was.

Push a dog into the conrer and beat and kick it, and it starts to bite back. Tell Europeans that they have to identifxy themserlves with foreigners more than with their own historically grown tarditions, and you will hit resistence and declining loyalty and obedience. Continue with it, and sooner or later you get anarchy, and civil war. Its just atural, almost reasonable. Force a living beign to act against its own nature, even its own right - and dont wonder if it does not only turn stubborn, but sooner or later attacks you.

From some status of erosion and anarchy on, people may become so desperate, and thankful for any promise of law and order and stability, that they will accept just any villain or hero, gangster or paladin who gives them that. So that happened in Rome. And it is easy to see that the same most likely will happen in Europe in this century again.

Multiculti, tolerance, freedom, peace and humanist values will be lost then. If you want to keep them, stop pressing people to act like the EU wants them to act. The problem is not the people so much. The problem is that the EU does not understand that what it wants to be causes this anger and growing resistence. The EU is fantasizing itself to death.

[Skybird]

Behind-the-stage contacts between German and American diplomats and officials indicated to be anything but reassuring for the Germans, despite the friendly words of Pence at the Munich Security Conference. I think the Germans still live by illusions.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-trump-idUSKBN1601DS

[Catfish]

^ So you think it is good that Trump encourages right-wing populists to break the EU? Isolated nations will be easy game for US Trade 'guidelines'. Maybe we should talk directly to Bannon, instead of making the detour over Trump?

Which is why the "amorphous" EU (lol) should now stand together. We cannot know what Bannon/Trump's strategy will be really like, not even Trump knows it yet. They should be very careful though to break transatlantic ties. The EU could find that Russia is altogether a better trading partner.

[Skybird]

German Bundesbank seems to plot kind of an indirect attack course on the ECB - by daring to openly name the many risks that so far get sweet-talked and glossed over by the majoirty of the Euro-drunken polticla establishment.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-02-22/bundesbank-considers-exit-cost-from-ecb-s-unconventional-policy

The caluclation is not new. That they want to publicly announce it and call the mess by its name, no longer hiding it under the table - that is what is new.

German politicians need to weigh the wish of fooling the public about the Euro against the need to counter "populists" gaining more votes. In 6 or 7 months there are national elections , and some elections in the federal states come even before that.

AfD seems to have lost sympathies, however, due to endless self-cannibalising.

---

Additional to what the article mentions, the worries of the Bundesbank also manifestate in the now almost 800 billion in TARGET-2 saldi the Germans hold against the ECB and that the Germans were stupid enough to accept. In simple words, this is money the ECB owes Germany for trasnactions the Bundesbank did for oher central banks, but with the Bundesbank's own money, while handing the traded goods - investment paper slike bongs - over to that other central bank that owes the Bundesbank nothing: the ECB owes Germany that money.

For comparison: the last gross domestic product GDP of Germany was nominally around 3.5 trillion, and the last total government budget marked at 307 billion. The Target2 saldi of Germany - money that it will never get from anyone, not states, notthe ECB! - rate at

-roughly one quarter of the German GDP,

- and almost three times the government budget !

And that is just Target2.

[Skybird]

^ So you think it is good that Trump encourages right-wing populists to break the EU? .
I think it is America'S interest. Divide et impera. Single states are weaker in comaprison to the US, than a union of states showing a soldi and united frontline. And Trump was voted for by Americans (not Europeans) to hold up American interests - not European wishes.

And being against the EU - or Islam or mass migration , for that matter - does not automatically make somebody neither "rightwing" nor a "populist". In fact it can be a sign of intellectual sanity and a reasonable mind to oppose these three evils, or to oppose the "left-wing populists" trying to enforce it on a more and more unwilling population in Europe.

[Skybird]

Quote: "A stream of euphemisms...hollow structures and a military that is slowly wearing out."

http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/trump-nato-demands-becomes-political-debate-in-germany-a-1136140.html

But the openly left-ocnrfessing SPD already tries to suffocate any further raises of defences by demoinosing it as a "rearmament spiral".

[Oberon]

Well, I imagine it is a bit of a twitchy subject in Germany, all things considered, bit like Japan (who spends 1.0%) but, certainly a measured increase would not go amiss. It's just a matter of framing it in a manner that doesn't stir up old ghosts.

[Jimbuna]

That is an interesting article Sky and I suspect, accurate and indicative of more than a few NATO members.

[ikalugin]

It is the problem of mass.

I am not sure if any NATO member (with exception of the US) can muster sufficient mass for independent operations. For example European old core members (France, UK, Germany) at best could assemble a light mechanized corps each (2 mech divisions, UK can no longer do this), meaning that they are unable to conduct independent operational level warfighting.

Thus, paradoxically European nation-states would have to either do something revolutional or to transfer their national soverenity to some third party. In my opinion it is in the interests of those nation-states and their people to transfer their soverenity to an entity answerable to them.

[Oberon]

In my opinion it is in the interests of those nation-states and their people to transfer their soverenity to an entity answerable to them.

You'd need to erase two millennia of history to get that to happen. :03:

[ikalugin]

You'd need to erase two millennia of history to get that to happen. :03:
I disagree - there were moments in history when nation-states have merged for the purpose of security.

The key here, in my opinion, is making EU structures democratic - ie answerable to the people of the EU and elected by the people of the EU.

[Oberon]

I disagree - there were moments in history when nation-states have merged for the purpose of security.

The key here, in my opinion, is making EU structures democratic - ie answerable to the people of the EU and elected by the people of the EU.

Yeah, but this is Europe, the whole of Europe...working together. I'd like to see it happen, but I won't believe in the ability of it happening until it actually happens.

Well, I don't know about the rest of the EU, but we've always had the ability to elect members of the European Parliament.

[Skybird]

Every chain, even the longest one, is only as strong as its weakest link. I do not buy the idea of that weak members increase the strength of the community they join. They weaken it.

Hitler learned that the hard way with Italy. The German war was serioulsy hampered by the need to move resources from areas where German military was needed, to places where Mussolini had failed.

Diplomatic stage acts and supercomplex, superclever, super wellmeaning intentions only work as long as it is still the time of playing diplomacy. No treaty paper saves you from injury once they start sending bullets at where your heart is. That is what political appeasers refuse to understand: the very convincing power of naked, raw physical violence. One should never underestimate the forming power of violence in history. It already was the decisive factor that before they invented the wheel and started to type books. Becasue in the en, it comes down to this simple truth: its easier to bring down, than to build.

[ikalugin]

Yeah, but this is Europe, the whole of Europe...working together. I'd like to see it happen, but I won't believe in the ability of it happening until it actually happens.

Well, I don't know about the rest of the EU, but we've always had the ability to elect members of the European Parliament.
I mean look at the modern nation states of Germany and France, they were assembled from component states that had a very complex history.

Every chain, even the longest one, is only as strong as its weakest link. I do not buy the idea of that weak members increase the strength of the community they join. They weaken it.

Hitler learned that the hard way with Italy. The German war was serioulsy hampered by the need to move resources from areas where German military was needed, to places where Mussolini had failed.

Diplomatic stage acts and supercomplex, superclever, super wellmeaning intentions only work as long as it is still the time of playing diplomacy. No treaty paper saves you from injury once they start sending bullets at where your heart is. That is what political appeasers refuse to understand: the very convincing power of naked, raw physical violence. One should never underestimate the forming power of violence in history. It already was the decisive factor that before they invented the wheel and started to type books. Becasue in the en, it comes down to this simple truth: its easier to bring down, than to build.
That is true for an alliance of independent nation-states and not for the (partial, regulated) transfer of soverenity to a (democratic) super state authority.

The whole reason behind that process is the inherent inability of modern European nation-states to independently maintain adequate ability to use violence (the problem of mass that I have mentioned earlier). To use your comparison European nation-states are Italies of the modern age at best.

[Skybird]

^ But this trend for super state auuthprity is what drives the ordinary people away - sicne such construction, may it be the UN, may it be the EU, heavily violate the drive of most people to confess to theirt historiclaly grown feelings of idnetity and according rite, cultural behavour, value system. instead thes eorganisaiton create their own artifical, lifeless stil-birth of universlaistic values that expect people to identitfy with all mankind instea dof their social and cultural peer groups. It does nto work, it is against human nature. As i currently read in a fantastic book - the sam eproblem there alreayd was in Rome, it had tremendous inflouenc ein the fall of the firts republic.

Do not tell people to behave against their human nature and their desire to identitfxy themselves with what they call their home - you must lose if you nevertheless work against this nature, and must necessarily cause violent resistane to your "inhumane" claim sooner or later.

Living in Russia with its modern extremely strong form of nationalistic sentiment and pro-Russia-"cult" :), you should have no problems to see the truth in what I say.


----

Huch! Spies spy! The germans do it as well! Drama! TRAGEDY! SCANDAL...!!!

http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/german-intelligence-spied-on-foreign-journalists-for-years-a-1136188.html

[Oberon]

Tsk tsk, you're not allowed to spy, naughty Germans. We're only allowed to spy on you. :O: Besides, why spy on the BBC, it's 'fake news' remember? :haha:

ikalugin, you have a good point, but these German and French states did have the advantage of having some sort of cultural joint identity, in that they considered themselves French or German, but that doesn't tend to extend to the whole continent as much. People tend to think of themselves as country first continent second.

[Skybird]

People tend to think of themselves as country first continent second.

Family first. Tribe next. Then neighbouring populations of close cultural roots. Then things like countries, empires, kingdoms.

Thats why the left - and the EU - is so determined to destroy the institution "family" as central key and core cell of the identity-providing social fundament. Already Lenin formulated that. They money is to be destroyed to destroy the fundament of capitalism. The family is to be destroyed as fundament of communal spirit and burgeouise identity. Both have to to be destroyed to create the space neeed for one collective, centrally controlled and defined test-tube-identity defined by the party/elite.

The people should not elect the leaders they want - the leaders instead want to create the people they demand.

[ikalugin]

Tsk tsk, you're not allowed to spy, naughty Germans. We're only allowed to spy on you. :O: Besides, why spy on the BBC, it's 'fake news' remember? :haha:

ikalugin, you have a good point, but these German and French states did have the advantage of having some sort of cultural joint identity, in that they considered themselves French or German, but that doesn't tend to extend to the whole continent as much. People tend to think of themselves as country first continent second.
I cannot be sure in case of the German state, but in case of the French state it is actually quite clear that they did not - that identity was created together with the French nation-state

A more recent example would be Ukraine - the national identity was enforced onto the population in one generation. Should EU survive and survive on the pre crisis trajectory for a generation - there would be a new identity out there (anti-Brexit protests sort of did show that process occuring, even though we observe early stages of it).

[Skybird]

Identity tends to be something sticking to a people for generations and centuries - and that is how long it takes to form or change one. That it could be done shorter, metaphorically by pushing a button on some bureaucrat's desktop or by printing a stamp in some official formula (or drawing lines on a map in a different manner than bfeofre, for that matter), is the big illusion.

[ikalugin]

Identity tends to be something sticking to a people for generations and centuries - and that is how long it takes to form or change one. That it could be done shorter, metaphorically by pushing a button on some bureaucrat's desktop or by printing a stamp in some official formula (or drawing lines on a map in a different manner than bfeofre, for that matter), is the big illusion.
This was not strictly true in the past, this is even less true now.

French for example did not even share a single spoken language (this was introduced via mass media), Chinese still do not share a single spoken language (this is now being introduced via mass media).

If you want to see how fast modern nation building works in Europe now look no further than Ukraine. It managed to build itself into a nation-state in 25 years. The foundations of such a nation-state are simple:
- consistent historic myth creation.
- consistent falsification of culture.
- state sponsored and enforced distribution of the myth and culture.

Both myth and culture have to be simple in nature and hostile to any competition.

p.s. the ability to introduce culture/historic myth to vulnerable populations is especially clear in the post Soviet states, in addition to the nationalistic examples (Ukraine, Kazahstan, Belorussia, to lesser extend Russia as we adopted continuation of the existing structures) you get religious ones (spread of Islam to the atheist Dagestan for example).

p.p.s. to clarify - originally I wasn't talking about formation of a unitaric nation-state of Europe, I was talking about formation of a super state above nation-states of Europe which would provide certain services to the people of those nation-states that those nation-states could not. For example credible Armed Forces.

[Skybird]

The Chinese are united by race. They are Han. Their sense of unity is very strong.

The regional feelings of identity in Europe you can see all across Europe. Despite the desperate attempt of EUcrats to ridicule or demonise them, local independence movements and sometimes even huge mass movements you can see all across Europe. France. Italy. Spain. Balkan. Alpine area. Switzerland. Denmark. Poland. At least over 60 political such movements are usually listed when talking about this, if you lower your numerical criterion from when on you count somethign as a movement, you even can end up with hundreds.

Then there are the shared roots of different languages (the Romanic, Germanic, Slavic branches of languages). The shared religious background, mainly - EU-denied - Christianity, although desintegrating into several sub factions like Catholic, Protestant, orthodox, Anglican. The dozens and dozens of regional local cultures, the more decisive these are the more isolated by terrain people are. In the Alpine area cou can get different identities this way from valley to valley already. The occident is diverse, still there is shared historic fundament in philosophy and patterns in which we think, feel, perceive and approach the world and life in general. At home we may feel in the family we are part of, then the village we come from, then the region where our dialect is being spoken.

I am member of my family, this is my most intensely felt identity. I love Lübeck, and I know Berlin since I lived there long (don't like it), nevertheless these places are dearer to me than others. If i were born more to the south, i would consider myself to be Bavarian, maybe. But then also German, the next wider context. I may feel close to an Austrian since we share a 98% identical language, but the Austrian history is that of a huge, multicultural empire, the German is not - the differences are immense, the social behaviour norms and standards as well as the self-perception are very different therefore (Germans often underestimate that when going to Austria, and think Austria is just like Germany, due to the language - it is not). Nevertheless we all are Europeans if we were born here and our families stem from here, still there are differences, and for people coming from another continent, culture, race, "Europe" nevertheless means somethign even more different again than for families rooted in Europe since many generations and centuries, even more so when the non-Europeans come from an own culture that different to the EU is very strict in advocating its own individual cultural identity. The Turks are an actual example. There is plenty, plenty of diversity in Europe. But if you put much of that into one train and drive to China, or Egypt, or the Kongo, you will soon see what the travellers on that train from Europe all have in common, and what separates them from all others, necessarily.

And Russia, the Sovjet Union - the dictators there often thought they could replace people at will and move whole ethnicities around like chess pawns. But the original feeling of identity prevailed, especially in the Muslim southern districts. You simplify too much there, ikalugin, in order to acchieve a wanted claim that man can be opportunistically manipulated and socially reprogrammed at arbitrary will (the will of the party, for example). You underestimate the individuality of people, ethnicities, cultures, identity. As they say: blood is thicker than water. In Europe, progressives may try to intentionally ignore that. In Russia, tyrants may want to ignore this diversity to claim more power for themselves when ordering the kind of self-perception they want their subordnates to have. But still - Russian feelings of "being Russian" seem to be extremely strong, try to retrain that: I am quite certain you would fail.

But especially in the places where most mass migration to Europe is coming from - the Muslim North Africa and Middle East and the Southern Balkan - people are much less self-denying, and feel such feelings of own identity even stronger, encouraged by the call of Islam for totalitarian uniformity: "power by uniformity". I cannot see that the progressive EU's social-engineered test-tube identity it provides poltically correct thinking people with (that claims nothign less than to not just speak for Europe but all mankind), has anything to offer that could confront these far stronger, energetic and dynamic self-unerstandings these foreigners bring with them. And that is the reason why Muslim migration fails to lead to successful integration throughout Europe. Its not migration in general that poses problems. Its migration from muslim countries, countries that already before Muhammad'S impact on the grounds of history were very patriarchalic and "machismo" and remained to be so until today. If you think you can socially re-engineer this to your liking as well, then you think wrong - like the EU and the politically correct establishments thinks wrong as well.

[Skybird]

Not politics, but still: finally a precedence case has been laid out by a German court. For illegal car racing, which led to the killing of one innocent third car driver who had nothing to do with the two monkeys racing, both racers, who raced down the Kurfürstendamm in Berlin with 160 km/h and jumped several red traffic lights before smashing into the murder victim on the Tauentzien (near the famous KaDeWe), have been found guilty of MURDER and were sentenced to life. The deed took place one year ago, in February 2016.

Two of the things I have absolutely zero tolerance for, are drivers who drive drunk, and illegal racers on public streets.

A psychologist who tested both drivers, said they still show zero insight for their guilt. As so often with these kind of young men living on steroids and by a diat composed of narcissism bars, they insisted until the end that they had everything under control.

Which means, in reverse conclusion, that it was the mistake of the murder victim that it got killed. Thats the one point that has especially pissed me when i saw a report on it on TV some months ago.

The kill drivers were identified in the newspaper as Marvin H, 25 years, and Hamdi N., 28 years. The latter seems to be the one who crashed into his victim, as I recall it.

My mum's sister and here unborn baby and fresh husband got killed by a drunk primitive like these , 45 years ago. My own girlfriend and non-announced fiance got killed by such a drunk ape-thing as well, 30 years ago. He got his license back after just some months, and some time later again drove drunk, and again caused a heayv accident and injured several others.

I feel no mercy at all for these two.

[ikalugin]

@skybird (because your post is too long to meaningfully quote).

We can agree to disagree then as civilised men.

What we can do is to make a fair wager, regarding the way the world is going. Is it reasonable to assume that you would live (and maintain intelectual capacity) for another 25 years? If so, then we can set formal conditions regarding the terms of the wager and a worthy price, maybe a bottle of high quality alcohol in my cellar (which would further improve from 25 years of being there)?

[ikalugin]

http://csbaonline.org/research/publications/u.s.-strategy-for-maintaining-a-europe-whole-and-free

[Skybird]

Not Germany, but Netherlands, but still somewhat crucial for German foreign policy:

the Dutch parliament has ordered a study to exmaine whether the Euro currency really still is in the Netherölands' best interest, and if and how the country could leave the currency union. This decision comes two months before they have general elections in the country, and the results of that study will be presented later this year.

The Dutch start to feel the sting from Draghis plundering course and illegal state financing policy, pension fonds are beign cut and future pensioners will need to expct to get less money due to the ECB policy.

If the Dutch, often seen as the prime example of EU- and Euro-friendliness, decide to leave the Euro, it would send shockwaves through and a lethal signal to the Euro-zone, and Germany, would be even ore isolated in the Eurozone than ever before. The scale of such an exit compares to the Brexit. If not just Greece or Italy leaves, but the Netherlands, a net payer, then I think it is game over for the Euro. The Dutch have higher economy growth the Germany, and export twice as much goods per head than the Germans.

So after Greece, Italy, France, Spain, we now have a new potential ground zero for a megaexplosion of the EU/Euro .

English: http://www.reuters.com/article/netherlands-election-euro-idUSL8N1G95BX

German: https://www.welt.de/finanzen/article162437330/Die-Niederlaender-verlieren-die-Geduld-mit-Europa.html

I read in financial news that investors' expectations that at least one country will leave the Euro within the next 12 months, has gone steeply upwards in recent weeks. Currently over 25% consider that to be the most likely going of events, tendency: steeply climbing further. The Eurocrisis, as they call it, of course nevr had gine away, nor was it under control. It was just violently hidden under the carpet - by moving more and heavier furniture onto that carpet. Now the floor threatens to break through.

[Skybird]

@skybird (because your post is too long to meaningfully quote).

We can agree to disagree then as civilised men.

What we can do is to make a fair wager, regarding the way the world is going. Is it reasonable to assume that you would live (and maintain intelectual capacity) for another 25 years? If so, then we can set formal conditions regarding the terms of the wager and a worthy price, maybe a bottle of high quality alcohol in my cellar (which would further improve from 25 years of being there)?

25 years is a damn long time. Lets just disagree.

[ikalugin]

25 years is a damn long time. Lets just disagree.
I mean 1/4 of a century is about 1 generation.

[Jimbuna]

Not Germany, but Netherlands, but still somewhat crucial for German foreign policy:

the Dutch parliament has ordered a study to exmaine whether the Euro currency really still is in the Netherölands' best interest, and if and how the country could leave the currency union. This decision comes two months before they have general elections in the country, and the results of that study will be presented later this year.

The Dutch start to feel the sting from Draghis plundering course and illegal state financing policy, pension fonds are beign cut and future pensioners will need to expct to get less money due to the ECB policy.

If the Dutch, often seen as the prime example of EU- and Euro-friendliness, decide to leave the Euro, it would send shockwaves through and a lethal signal to the Euro-zone, and Germany, would be even ore isolated in the Eurozone than ever before. The scale of such an exit compares to the Brexit. If not just Greece or Italy leaves, but the Netherlands, a net payer, then I think it is game over for the Euro. The Dutch have higher economy growth the Germany, and export twice as much goods per head than the Germans.

So after Greece, Italy, France, Spain, we now have a new potential ground zero for a megaexplosion of the EU/Euro .

English: http://www.reuters.com/article/netherlands-election-euro-idUSL8N1G95BX

German: https://www.welt.de/finanzen/article162437330/Die-Niederlaender-verlieren-die-Geduld-mit-Europa.html

I read in financial news that investors' expectations that at least one country will leave the Euro within the next 12 months, has gone steeply upwards in recent weeks. Currently over 25% consider that to be the most likely going of events, tendency: steeply climbing further. The Eurocrisis, as they call it, of course nevr had gine away, nor was it under control. It was just violently hidden under the carpet - by moving more and heavier furniture onto that carpet. Now the floor threatens to break through.

If I were a gambling man I'd say Greece would be the first to leave post-BREXIT.

[ValoWay]

The media has to stop giving racist nationalists a platform!

While most Dutch voters say they favour retaining the euro, the eurosceptic far-right party of Geert Wilders is expected to book large gains though it is unlikely to win enough votes to form a government.

source:http://www.reuters.com/article/netherlands-election-euro-idUSL8N1G95BX



There always were extreme right parties in Europe, America and around the globe.

The party was founded in 1964 as successor to the German Reich Party (German: Deutsche Reichspartei, DRP). Party statements also self-identify the party as Germany's "only significant patriotic force".[12] On 1 January 2011, the nationalist German People's Union (German: Deutsche Volksunion) merged with the NPD and the party name of the National Democratic Party of Germany was extended by the addition of "The People's Union".[13]

source:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Democratic_Party_of_Germany

Just because the media reports more often now about scum like this doesn't mean things are any different than they were before. It is not the first time that there was a wave of Muslim refugees and immigrants in Germany. The first generation, those which were not born in Germany, will have a hard time to adapt to local lifestyle and culture but as soon as the as their children, the 2nd generation, are born and start to enter public schools the assimilation process will become drastic and apparent. Yes, it also means more reports of juvenile delinquency and racism for about a decade but that will eventually disappear.

I have studied this topic at university and think the main reason why the German government decided to take so many refugees was to guarantee the longevity of the German healthcare, retirement and pension system. It is a proven scientific fact that Germany desperately needs higher birthrates to upkeep the system which is more than likely the reason why they did it.

If you are a nationalists I suggest to think twice before you throw out everything that's foreign, cause it might pay for your rent once you're old and unable to work..

Children with a foreign background in German elementary schools are barely distinguishable from kids with native ancestors nowadays. The media simply has to stop fearmongering and stop acting like everything that happens was new and exclusive so that they can sell more copies..

[ikalugin]

This is going to be good.

[Oberon]

This is going to be good.

http://i.imgur.com/ERoBFTM.gif

[ikalugin]

To change the topic. Did anyone look into the "Unbreakable Brotherhood 2016" exercise?

[Skybird]

*Fold.*

Somebody else this time, please.

[Oberon]

......


https://media.giphy.com/media/3oAt21Fnr4i54uK8vK/giphy.gif

[Catfish]

The media has to stop giving racist nationalists a platform!

Just because the media reports more often now about scum like this doesn't mean things are any different than they were before. It is not the first time that there was a wave of Muslim refugees and immigrants in Germany. The first generation, those which were not born in Germany, will have a hard time to adapt to local lifestyle and culture but as soon as the as their children, the 2nd generation, are born and start to enter public schools the assimilation process will become drastic and apparent. Yes, it also means more reports of juvenile delinquency and racism for about a decade but that will eventually disappear.

I have studied this topic at university and think the main reason why the German government decided to take so many refugees was to guarantee the longevity of the German healthcare, retirement and pension system. It is a proven scientific fact that Germany desperately needs higher birthrates to upkeep the system which is more than likely the reason why they did it.

If you are a nationalists I suggest to think twice before you throw out everything that's foreign, cause it might pay for your rent once you're old and unable to work..

Children with a foreign background in German elementary schools are barely distinguishable from kids with native ancestors nowadays. The media simply has to stop fearmongering and stop acting like everything that happens was new and exclusive so that they can sell more copies..

Excellent post, thanks.

"The media has to stop giving racist nationalists a platform!"

This is the problem. The neutral/common sense people think they have to give this scum a platform "because democracy" and "can't we all live together". But they do not play by the same rules.
As soon as you let them do their thing you will only hear of them, while the normal media will enter shock state and look stunned at what is happening.
Time to take a more aggressive stance, and not just "let it happen".

[Skybird]

Gunnar Heinsohn and some remarks on the demography and migration until 2050.

Only in German, sorry.

LINK - Flüchtlinge für Deutschlands Hightech-Zukunft (http://www.achgut.com/artikel/fluechtlinge_fuer_deutschlands_hightech_zukunft)

LINK - Kleiner Atlas der Völkerwanderungen bis 2050 (http://www.achgut.com/artikel/kleiner_atlas_der_voelkerwanderungen_bis_2050)

Link - Afrikanerpolitik mal ganz nüchtern (http://www.achgut.com/artikel/afrikanerpolitik_wie_waere_es_mit_ein_paar_nuechte rnen_zahlen_und_fakten)

Militärdemographie (military demography) - I did not even know that such an academic branch existed.

LINK - Die Illusion vom Überlaufbecken (http://www.achgut.com/artikel/der_lange_weg_des_sebastian_kurz)

LINK - Die Strategie des Überlaufbeckens (http://www.achgut.com/artikel/merkels_strategie_des_ueberlaufbeckens)

LINK - Sieben Thesen zu Integration und Illusion (http://www.achgut.com/artikel/integration_sieben_thesen)


I still recommend his book "Söhne und Weltmacht". Heinsohn hats einfach drauf. That the extreme left university community in germany hates him like the plague, just shows how pointy he hits the sore nerves. And no, I do not think that universities in Germany have become any less far left leaning in the 25 years since I studied.

Must I do anything myself? The whole archive at the Achse an be found here:

http://www.achgut.com/autor/heinsohn#artikelarchiv

[Skybird]

German "Manager Magazin" reports that in 2016 the number of millionaires leaving germany and giving up citizenship, has grown by a factor of 4, compared to 2015. 4000 millionaires letf Germany 2016, in 2015 it were 1000, and in the years before that it was a number in the low hundreds.

In frtance, the numbers are even worse, it leads the European nations in fleeing milionaires. 12 thousand have left France and turned their backs on French citizen ship in 2016. Asked why they do, the answers focussed on "tensions due to foreign religions" (why pluiral? Everybody knows it is just one certain religion causing troubles, and that is not the Krishna sectarians...), and fears of financial disaster in Europe.

Most flee to Canada and Australia.

This may cause problems sooner or later, if the trend continues, since our political left - and that is practically all parties there are in Germany's Bundestag - dream of plundering from those they demonise as "the evil rich", and with that loot pay for the many have-nots of lacking qualification that are being channeled to Germany in huge quantities, who are expected to produce our pensions in the future ebven if they lack the generla educaiton, qualificaiton, and willingness to integrate.

If net receivers move in by hundreds of thousands per year, and the few net payers of real wealth flee - then you get problems sooner or later. Even Keynesians sooner or later will face the truth that all their superstitious wonder-belief was just an illusion.

Maybe we need to build a new wall, this time around all Germany. To keep fleeing millionaires inside. Or we simply shoot all Republikflüchtlinge once again, and confiscate their wealth completely.

Which leaves me wondering. Do wealthy people grow on trees, or are they raining down from heaven? We need to replace them, don't we, else our business model once again faces problems.

Its not just about fleeing money. Around last christmas I read a long, thorough essay of the massive intellectuol brain drain Germany suffers from as well. It was not German, but some international medium, in English and German. I try to find it again.

The rich people have start to move out. The competent, well-qualified people started to move out. Sounds as if those of a sane mind in general have started to move out, eh?

When looking at those moving in to replace them, I do not really feel relieved. The exchange is hugely deficitary.

[Skybird]

http://www.dw.com/en/report-germany-planned-to-close-border-at-height-of-2015-refugee-crisis/a-37817614

"No leading German politician was willing to take responsibility for the possibly illegal decision at the end, "Welt am Sonntag" said in its report."

So they have chosen for a fully legal disaster instead.

"(Merkel) also reportedly wanted to limit bad press that would have arisen from pictures of German authorities enforcing the border closure and their interactions with refugees."

Clear case of personal failure(s) then.

Or as Hayek said so nicely: In government, the scum raises to the top.

[ValoWay]

Excellent post, thanks.

"The media has to stop giving racist nationalists a platform!"

This is the problem. The neutral/common sense people think they have to give this scum a platform "because democracy" and "can't we all live together". But they do not play by the same rules.
As soon as you let them do their thing you will only hear of them, while the normal media will enter shock state and look stunned at what is happening.
Time to take a more aggressive stance, and not just "let it happen".

Yea, my point is that it seems to me like nowadays every populist right-wing idiot only needs to make a fart and the entire arsenal of the western media immediately goes hysterical! Constantly reporting their nonsense all the time only encourages more idiots to talk even more bollocks..

Like this clown here:
http://www.dw.com/en/danish-demagogue-calls-for-annexation-of-german-region/a-37696340

Once everybody said that he's basically an idiot he was like "Hey, I was just joking, alright?"

Who's worth reporting next? This guy maybe?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9_ZGNjZFhM8

I think he has a jolly good point and is definitely an official representative of his government or opposition with a lot to say so let's write an article about him, right?

[DicheBach]

German "Manager Magazin" reports that in 2016 the number of millionaires leaving germany and giving up citizenship, has grown by a factor of 4, compared to 2015. 4000 millionaires letf Germany 2016, in 2015 it were 1000, and in the years before that it was a number in the low hundreds.

In France, the numbers are even worse, it leads the European nations in fleeing milionaires. 12 thousand have left France and turned their backs on French citizen ship in 2016. Asked why they do, the answers focussed on "tensions due to foreign religions" (why pluiral? Everybody knows it is just one certain religion causing troubles, and that is not the Krishna sectarians...), and fears of financial disaster in Europe.

All religions can, at any point in their history be divided into four segments:

I. "Murderous Fanatics:" Those who engage in murderous violence in the name of their religion.
II. "Accessory Fanatics:" Those who are accessories to crimes of segment I by assisting them in some way.
III. "Complacent Faithful:" Those who do not directly assist segment I, but also do not oppose their actions, and are willing (when queried) to admit that they support the murderous or otherwise authoritarian repression actions in the name of the religion.
IV. "Innocent Faithful:" Those who do not directly assist segment I, and are also not in anyway in favor of violence or oppression in the name of the religion.

At any given time in its history, the proportions in each of these segments might range between 0 and 100%. In Europe in the 1400s, many "Christians" were among segment I and the breakdown might have looked like this:
I. 10%
II. 20%
III. 30%
IV. 40%

The problem we face is one of understanding the contemporary breakdown for any religion in which there have been any religiously condoned acts of violence in recent times. The follow on task is to understand how large a risk any particular breakdown poses for a society.

The 911 attacks against the U.S. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/September_11_attacks)

killed 2,996 people, injured over 6,000 others, and caused at least $10 billion in property and infrastructure damage[2][3] and $3 trillion in total costs"

. . . caused long-term health issues for tens of thousands and early death (for example cancers among first responders who were exposed to the toxic cloud that engulfed the murder site) for thousands

This operation was conducted by a mere 19 elite operatives, who had been on long-term sleeper assignment in the U.S. Their support and funding came from overseas and was a small and decentralized entity that is often identified as "Al Qaeda," which is really just the most proximal aspect of a pan-national Sunni Islamic supremacist movement that is common to a number of Wahhabist sects that are prevalent in Saudi Arabia and other Arab states and which are among the most prolific and deadly exporters of Fourth Generation Warfare. "Islamic State" is another subsidiary of this poorly understood, dynamic, chimeric, global criminal organization.

911 was carried out by 19 well-educated Islamic men who had taken the time to gain lawful entrance and residence in the U.S. in 1999-2000 and who did a good job of not breaking the law while they implemented the plan they had been sent here to carry out. Of all religions, Islam is one of the most explicit in adulating crypsis and surprise in warfare. I think it is safe to assume that, in a pool of a couple million people who have been allowed to enter a European nation undocumented, there are plenty of would-be 911 operatives who are highly motivated to achieve similar fame and martyrdom.

Of course, law enforcement is different today than it was in 2000-2001 and hopefully that alone is enough to thwart most would-be Islamic supremacist inspired killing sprees from achieving any success.

[Oberon]

Those 19 well trained operatives did more to change America than most nations have ever managed, and the beauty of the plan was that America did most of the work for them.
I imagine that Daesh, if it has any sense, is busy working on a similar plan right now for America, and the other beauty of it is that it doesn't even have to be 9/11 scale any more, a shooting spree under the current social and political conditions in America will be a massive victory for Daesh, because all they need to do is create the snowball and America will push it into the avalanche for them. The same thing is gradually happening across Europe too. Small attacks here and there make big changes. It's not like some kind of mass air bombing raid, or another 9/11...in the grand scheme of things more people are killed by cars or themselves, but the great fear is terrorism when globally more people die from diarrhea or smoking.
So, terrorism, it works, it really works...and so it'll keep on being used.

[DicheBach]

Those 19 well trained operatives did more to change America than most nations have ever managed, and the beauty of the plan was that America did most of the work for them.
I imagine that Daesh, if it has any sense, is busy working on a similar plan right now for America, and the other beauty of it is that it doesn't even have to be 9/11 scale any more, a shooting spree under the current social and political conditions in America will be a massive victory for Daesh, because all they need to do is create the snowball and America will push it into the avalanche for them. The same thing is gradually happening across Europe too. Small attacks here and there make big changes. It's not like some kind of mass air bombing raid, or another 9/11...in the grand scheme of things more people are killed by cars or themselves, but the great fear is terrorism when globally more people die from diarrhea or smoking.
So, terrorism, it works, it really works...and so it'll keep on being used.

It all depends of course on what one means by effective.

The NATO invasion and occupation of Afghanistan were a result of 911 and in truth so was the Coalition invasion and occupation of Iraq. If memory serves the total Western death toll from those two wars was no more than 8,000 and probably about three times that many wounded. Nasty business, but nothing compared to the hundreds of thousands of Middle Easterners (of all four segments I'm sure) who were killed and the millions who were either wounded or turned into refugees. The West accomplished this with both hands tied behind its back and a set of rules of engagement that sound more like they were suited for riot control than for warfare.

The question which has to be kept in mind by all is, whether the West is in fact--no longer capable of unbridled savagery--as the events of 2002 through 2015 might suggest. One would have thought that 911 was a "Pearl Harbor" which gave America sufficient resolve to get the job done, but that was most certainly not the case. Even setting aside the Iraq war as adventurism, the deployments to Afghanistan were ridiculous, and the expectations of how long the occupation would need to persist also ridiculous.

One could easily conclude that both the Iraq and Afghanistan wars were tactical victories but strategy losses; honestly I don't see how you could conclude they were anything better, and possibly even worse. Which goes a long way toward explaining the apparent surge of enthusiasm which Sunni groups like IS enjoyed since 2012 or thereabouts.

The playbook which the evil geniuses in charge of Al Qaeda/IS/Islamic Brotherhood seem to follow is essentially Mao's Communist Manifesto, albeit with communism being replaced with the notion of Sunni hegemony. One of Mao's central points is that: guerrilla forces win not by traditional Western European methods of routing the enemy and occupying the valuable territory, but by occupying the hinterlands, annoying and harassing the more powerful enemy and never being defeated. This strategy has proven successful numerous times now, so it does seem to have some merit, at least for those societies which meet the prerequisites to follow the doctrine. Large populations of willing foot soldiers is the only make-or-break requirement for this sort of "national" military strategy to be feasible, though a unifying ideology helps too. You've got to be able to throw away 10, 20, 50 or more of your own people in exchange for the life of even one of the enemy, but if a society is in a position to do that, then Mao's approach can work.

The Sunni Islamic world has both cheap lives and a powerful unifying ideology. Moreover, the notion of dying for the cause is deep in the heart of that unifying ideology. Naturally the full gamut of murderous supremacist movements exemplified by Islamic State find it apparently easy to recruit and maintain some combat effectiveness, even while they are being assailed by the air power of multiple 3rd Generation nation states.

There is no doubt that the problem is NOT going to just "go away" and there is a big question as to whether "the West" will ever have enough resolve to do what it might take to "defeat" the problem . . . indeed it is an open question as to whether it is even possible for secular humanist Western democracies to "defeat" such a diffuse, elusive, obscure and clandestine thing as "pan-national murderous Islamic supremacism." Even Russia hasn't exactly exterminated its troublesome Islamic warlords--merely bought them out--and Chechnya is one of the most war torn nations on the planet.

I suppose if the goal of Sunni Islamic terror is in fact to continue the struggle which _might_ eventually lead to a global caliphate, then yes terrorism works.

[Oberon]

You've also got to factor in the manpower situation, coming back to your four groups, the goal, or should I say one of the goals of terrorist groups, particularly ones based around a religious belief is to move as many people as possible from segment four across to three, two and then one. Now westernisation has a dulling affect on religious zealotry, or at least it does in Western Europe anyway, and so in an open and tolerant society you'd find more people in segment four than the others, however you will still get those in others because of the youth factor, those going through hormonal changes, struggling to find somewhere to fit in and drift into 'gangs' or in this case, terrorist groups. Honestly though, some of the recruitment language for the Syrian war would not look out of place in a poster for British people to volunteer to serve in Kitcheners army back in WWI.
But back to the segments. So the likes of Daesh need to turn non-Muslims against Muslims in order to push them from segment four down to three, two and one. So when they open fire in the streets of Paris or Berlin, it's not just a case of killing the kaffir, although that is all well and good for the person who is doing it (who most likely has no thought to the bigger picture other than sacrificing himself for his deity) but it's also sowing the seeds of fear in the populace. It's a powerful tool, it's affected me and I'm the very model of a modern major liberal (I've information vegetable, animal and mineral) and so with each attack it shifts, sometimes in single digits, or even in decimal points, those people across and it increases the enemies manpower gradually.

Of course, such strategies are really only applicable to the west, in the Middle East itself it's a case of put a gun to anything that moves and point it at the enemy, that's a much more base level of warfare and one which they are losing hand over fist. On the battlefield we can kick them seven ways to Sunday, but on the homefront they run rings around us because our response is their weapon. If we don't react then we run the risk of leaving ourselves open to further attacks, but if we do react then we change the normal and throw suspicion on the people in segment four who then are slowly pushed downwards.

I think the biggest problem is that we don't know what the problem is, and indeed whether it is a problem that we can solve, without becoming the very thing that we're attempting to destroy. But you're right, it's definitely not going to go away, other problems might overshadow it (I'm looking at you Vladimir, and you Donald) but it's still going to be there, in and out of the background. One could argue that it has been there for centuries, and will continue to be there for centuries more, most likely.

[DicheBach]

You've also got to factor in the manpower situation, coming back to your four groups, the goal, or should I say one of the goals of terrorist groups, particularly ones based around a religious belief is to move as many people as possible from segment four across to three, two and then one. Now westernisation has a dulling affect on religious zealotry, or at least it does in Western Europe anyway, and so in an open and tolerant society you'd find more people in segment four than the others, however you will still get those in others because of the youth factor, those going through hormonal changes, struggling to find somewhere to fit in and drift into 'gangs' or in this case, terrorist groups. Honestly though, some of the recruitment language for the Syrian war would not look out of place in a poster for British people to volunteer to serve in Kitcheners army back in WWI.
But back to the segments. So the likes of Daesh need to turn non-Muslims against Muslims in order to push them from segment four down to three, two and one. So when they open fire in the streets of Paris or Berlin, it's not just a case of killing the kaffir, although that is all well and good for the person who is doing it (who most likely has no thought to the bigger picture other than sacrificing himself for his deity) but it's also sowing the seeds of fear in the populace. It's a powerful tool, it's affected me and I'm the very model of a modern major liberal (I've information vegetable, animal and mineral) and so with each attack it shifts, sometimes in single digits, or even in decimal points, those people across and it increases the enemies manpower gradually.

Of course, such strategies are really only applicable to the west, in the Middle East itself it's a case of put a gun to anything that moves and point it at the enemy, that's a much more base level of warfare and one which they are losing hand over fist. On the battlefield we can kick them seven ways to Sunday, but on the homefront they run rings around us because our response is their weapon. If we don't react then we run the risk of leaving ourselves open to further attacks, but if we do react then we change the normal and throw suspicion on the people in segment four who then are slowly pushed downwards.

I think the biggest problem is that we don't know what the problem is, and indeed whether it is a problem that we can solve, without becoming the very thing that we're attempting to destroy. But you're right, it's definitely not going to go away, other problems might overshadow it (I'm looking at you Vladimir, and you Donald) but it's still going to be there, in and out of the background. One could argue that it has been there for centuries, and will continue to be there for centuries more, most likely.

Yup! You nailed it.

Course it isn't a strictly modern problem. The French suffered similar issues as a result of the guerrilla war in occupied Spain, and even Alexander's armies were bothered by it in India and Afghanistan of all places.

We "Westerners," particularly those of us of a "secular humanist rationalist" bent find ourselves in a real philosophical pickle. A true Catch-22.

Most likely it is a problem that the kids being born right now will still be dealing with and quite possible for generations after that too.

Honestly I'm not that worred about either Vlad or Trumpolini. Trump talks too much, but he doesn't want war. Vlad has about as much as he can handle with his forces in Ukraine having been ground to a halt and the various occupied territories in his toy box always posing some risk.

China is in my opinion a powder keg--has been for decades, but with recent financial events, even more so. The regime there has to walk a delicate line between maintaining control and allowing enough civil liberties that they avert coups and civil wars.

As long as one is okay with periodic spree killers shouting Allahu Snackbar every now and again (along with the interminable drug cartel war in Mexico and the civil war in Syria) as well as the inevitable continued violence in Iraq, Afghanistan, Yemen, etc. I'd say we're looking at another 8 years of "peace."

[ikalugin]

http://www.spiegel.de/spiegel/konstantin-kossatschow-bestreitet-wahlmanipulation-und-sorgt-sich-um-trumps-radikale-positionen-a-1137204.html

[Oberon]

Yup! You nailed it.

Course it isn't a strictly modern problem. The French suffered similar issues as a result of the guerrilla war in occupied Spain, and even Alexander's armies were bothered by it in India and Afghanistan of all places.

We "Westerners," particularly those of us of a "secular humanist rationalist" bent find ourselves in a real philosophical pickle. A true Catch-22.

Most likely it is a problem that the kids being born right now will still be dealing with and quite possible for generations after that too.

Honestly I'm not that worred about either Vlad or Trumpolini. Trump talks too much, but he doesn't want war. Vlad has about as much as he can handle with his forces in Ukraine having been ground to a halt and the various occupied territories in his toy box always posing some risk.

China is in my opinion a powder keg--has been for decades, but with recent financial events, even more so. The regime there has to walk a delicate line between maintaining control and allowing enough civil liberties that they avert coups and civil wars.

As long as one is okay with periodic spree killers shouting Allahu Snackbar every now and again (along with the interminable drug cartel war in Mexico and the civil war in Syria) as well as the inevitable continued violence in Iraq, Afghanistan, Yemen, etc. I'd say we're looking at another 8 years of "peace."

Fully agree, the PRC is a definite concern, especially with 'Trumpolini's (I wonder if he'll get American trains to run on time? :hmmm:) economic policies looking to hurt China where it counts for the most at the moment and that's their wallet. The growth rate got revised down from 7 to 6.5% the other day, and I wouldn't be surprised to see it go down further within the next five years, and that's big trouble for Beijing. If things really go south I couldn't rule out some kind of Maoist uprising from the interior and that would be some real bad news for the west if the Maoist hawks take over.
Ultimately it's hard to say which is the biggest threat for us, or if, indeed, we are our own biggest threat, which is a bit existential but like you say it's a philosophical dilemma, which admittedly we are fortunate enough to be in the position of being able to have, unlike those caught in the middle of the mess in the Middle East.
As for the snackbar campaign, I think it's unfortunately something that you can't really defend against without radically altering what it is to be a western nation. So, you have to factor in some kind of losses in the 'war on terror' because it's inevitable that some will get through and will get far enough to be able to carry out an attack. It is the cost of war, and when you figure in the death tolls on both sides, civilians included since 2001, even with 9/11 thrown into the mix we are still far far less bloodied than those we have engaged in warfare with, in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria, Yemen, Pakistan, Somalia, and so many other places that I can't really think of them off the top of my head. I think the ratio, for America at least, is about 100 to 1, and that's military and civilian fatalities, and that's a conservative low estimate because we'll probably never know the true number of fatalities amongst civilians of these countries.

[ikalugin]

I wonder if he'll get American trains to run on time?I wish Germans would get their trains to run on time.

[Oberon]

I wish Germans would get their trains to run on time.

Heh, you should try ours. :dead:

[ikalugin]

Heh, you should try ours. :dead:
In my experience British trains are superior in terms of running on time.

[Skybird]

German rail is better than its reputation but by far not as good as Deutsche Bahn itself claims.

I had many business dates in other cities to run in the past three mionths, and did over 20 travels via rail for that reason. I cannot complain about how it was going.

Also, if you know ehere to look, you can find very cheap possibilities.

However, the busines is not healthy. Its beign run highly deficitary, the bridges and track network are aching under their age, and the German conception of "high speed trains" that nevertheless halt in every little cow village is totally counter-productive.

Beware with those ticket automats, however, and counters - and the option to use computer for booking. I have seen price differences of up to 80% when comparing station automat, station counter, phone app and comouter at home (for the same train, same day, same time). Their system does not work, or is intentionally fishing for the unaware, which in my book would be fraud. Their selling policy really is a deep, deep mess. And it is that since as long as I can rememeber. 15 years minimum.

Never trust their staff at selling counters. These are your worst options, by far. You even have to oay them a fee for that disastrous "service", and you get back an overpriced connection and a ticket that may be costing 150% more, or they stay silent on saving options you could take. It is not clear to me whether staff does that intentionally or is misled iztself by the disastrous siftware.

So, German rail in practice means better travelling than often is said - but be on your maxed-out guard when buying tickets. Ticket buying is a mess.

[Nippelspanner]

During my military service I traveled by train all the time and there never where any serious issues.
"Oh no the train is ten minutes late - let's freak out everybody and enjoy that we Germans just got another reason to bitch around, although we will be able to catch our follow up trains just fine, aka no damage done. "

As Skybird said, they aren't as great as they try to pretend, but they usually get you where you want comfortable and in time.

If you wanna know how awesome train rides can be, hop one of the freighters in India. If you survive you can bitch some more about the Deutsche Bahn.
(not directed to anyone here, just saying...)

[ikalugin]

German rail is better than its reputation but by far not as good as Deutsche Bahn itself claims.

I had many business dates in other cities to run in the past three mionths, and did over 20 travels via rail for that reason. I cannot complain about how it was going.

Also, if you know ehere to look, you can find very cheap possibilities.

However, the nusines is not healthy. Its beign run highly deficitary, the bridges and track network is aching under their age, and the German conception of "high speed trains" that nevertheless halt in every little cow village is totally counter-productive.

Beware with those ticket automats, however, and counters - and the option to use computer for booking. I have seen price differences of up to 80% when comparing station automat, station counter, phone app and comouter at home (for the same train, same day, same time). Their system does not work, or is intentionally fishing for the unaware, which in my book would be fraud. Their selling policy really is a deep, deep mess. And it is that since as long as I can rememeber. 15 years minimum.

Never trust their staff at selling counters. These are your worst options, by far. You even have to oay them a fee for that disastrous "service", and you get back an overpriced connection and a ticket that may be costing 150% more, or they stay silent on saving options you could take. It is not clear to me whether staff does that intentionally or is misled iztself by the disastrous siftware.

So, German rail in practice means better travelling than often is said - but be on your maxed-out guard when buying tickets. Ticket buying is a mess.
My personal experience of using ICE service is that it is abysmally off time (ie hours). I may have been extra unlukcky though, as I do not have statistics.

[Skybird]

Most perfect train service is in Japan, from all what I heard and read, btw. My father once was one tour with the orchestra there, 4 weeks. He said they - the employees of the Japanese rail service - could as well all work as heart surgeons, that precise and clean the system worked. That was in the mid-80s, however.

[Skybird]

My personal experience of using ICE service is that it is abysmally off time (ie hours). I may have been extra unlukcky though, as I do not have statistics.

Individual examples are individual examples. Statistics are about general populations and trends. The ICEs they called out when I waited for my own train, usually were right on time or had delays of less than 5-6 minutes. For such delays I simply do not care at all. Happens in metro-busses all the time. Personally I prefer commuter trains, they take longer, but are much cheaper.

[ikalugin]

Individual examples are individual examples. Statistics are about general populations and trends. The ICEs they called out when I waited for my own train, usually were right on time or had delays of less than 5-6 minutes. For such delays I simply do not care at all. Happens in metro-busses all the time. Personally I prefer commuter trains, they take longer, but are much cheaper.
5-6 minutes is unacceptable in my opinion. I primarily travel on the north-south axis, ie between Baden-Baden and Cologne.

Most perfect train service is in Japan, from all what I heard and read, btw. My father once was one tour with the orchestra there, 4 weeks. He said they - the employees of the Japanese rail service - could as well all work as heart surgeons, that precise and clean the system worked. That was in the mid-80s, however.
Been there a few years back, the trains were cheap and on time. Comfort wise ICE was the best I have seen so far (I tend to travel first class).

[ikalugin]

How is German public taking the wikileaks new stuff?

[Nippelspanner]

How is German public taking the wikileaks new stuff?

What new stuff exactly?

[Oberon]

What new stuff exactly?

Vault 7, which in keeping with the theme of current events sounds like it's from the Fallout universe.

http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/news/wikileaks-cia-vault-7-julian-assange-year-zero-documents-download-spying-secrets-a7616031.html

[Nippelspanner]

Oh that!
If that's true, and why wouldn't it, this is crazy on a whole new level.

Theoretically, there would need to be severe consequences. Practically, we all know nothing will happen.

Aka, the United spies of America will just continue to do what they do best: not respecting anyone or anything, not giving a damn about anyone or anything - and continue the huge "we're the free-est and bravest of them all" tour of world domination.

*shrug*

[Oberon]

I can't get too high horse about it, because I know for certain that if we had the resources, technology and manpower that the US had we'd be doing exactly the same thing...well, heck, we are doing the same thing down at GCHQ. I dare say that the French have their own network, although without as much of the resources, and God alone knows what MOSSAD has.

[ikalugin]

I can't get too high horse about it, because I know for certain that if we had the resources, technology and manpower that the US had we'd be doing exactly the same thing...well, heck, we are doing the same thing down at GCHQ. I dare say that the French have their own network, although without as much of the resources, and God alone knows what MOSSAD has.
If everyone else does it doesnt make it right.

I think the issue here is that some people have an illusion that US is a benighn actor and would not spy on it's allies.

[Nippelspanner]

If everyone else does it doesnt make it right.
Exactly.

[Oberon]

No, but the only way to stop it would be to get everyone to stop it at the same time, it's like disarmament, no-one wants to be the guy to drop his pistol first just in case the other guy decides to shoot him.

[Nippelspanner]

No, but the only way to stop it would be to get everyone to stop it at the same time, it's like disarmament, no-one wants to be the guy to drop his pistol first just in case the other guy decides to shoot him.

That goes without saying, it's still worth some criticism though. I don't care who does what, and for me there's also no "us", since my government sure doesn't do what I agree with.

In the end, anything cyber-war is completely out of control, be it the CIA more or less spying illegally on everyone, or Russia heavily - and successfully - influencing Europe's political course, it's all bonkers.

And it won't end well at all...

[ikalugin]

No, but the only way to stop it would be to get everyone to stop it at the same time, it's like disarmament, no-one wants to be the guy to drop his pistol first just in case the other guy decides to shoot him.
There are some talks on that front. The issue is less with recon cyber and more with the offensive cyber.

[Skybird]

This "news" fails to score a scandal. Its like it is always with human psychological adaptation: repeat something often enough, and what spiked a row back then, does not cause any uproar after some repetitions anymore. And why should people cry wolf indeed? The Russians manipulate public opinion and elections in several western countries. The British listen in to everything everywhere. The Germans are not as innocent as they claimed to be two years ago - just that their possibilities lack behind that of the GCHQ's and NSA's possibilities, both in quality and quantity (they even asked in the past to become member of the club of five eyes, but were refused to join). The internet of things get used to spy on people. Social media were in the headlines repeatedly. Companies' customer databases were repeatedly hacked and data corrupted. Windows 10 is snoopware and sellware, and people submit to it. And people warning and criticising these things - people like me for example - more and more resign and withdraw, quitting their inner ties with this society and crazyness all around.

This latest story is an old story, and so does not catch much attention anymore. Welcome in the bad brave new world.

[ikalugin]

Looks like EU Armed Forces are happening one way or another, with EU members integrating into Bundeswehr, ie:
https://images-ext-1.discordapp.net/eyJ1cmwiOiJodHRwczovL3Bicy50d2ltZy5jb20vbWVkaWEvQz RTdzk2QVdBQUFkcVpfLmpwZyJ9.Idu3w7-pZz7e3cxKnPOFlDh0_SU?width=600&height=450

[Skybird]

In German:

a well-integrated third generation German Turk's consternation about the German appeasement policy.

https://www.welt.de/debatte/kommentare/article162767906/Dieses-Appeasement-macht-mich-fassungslos.html

In germany, in general you can note that the best and most competent arguments against Merkels mass migration nightmare are coming from integrated earlier migrants, and the best informed and most competent criticsm of Islam and dreams of Islam's ability to get integrated is coming from apostates and Muslims who had to flee from muslim theocracies, and that the only loud criticsm of Erdoghan is coming from a minority amongst the Turks living in Germany, (and of curse Kurdish groups).

Native Germans by majority, officials and citizens alike, still dream the dream of big illusions and self-deceptions. Islam means peace. Turkey is a friend. Integration of Muslim migrants works great.

Many people fled to germany in past decades, amongs them many women, in the hope that Germany would be a place where they would be protected against what they fled from. And now they see that Germany lets them down, and allows right the kind of evil that they once were running away from. And Germany is not even shameful enough to not claim moral reasons for this betrayal and cynical policy.

Ekelhaft.

Media say the Dutch asked Germany for help in their row with Turkey, and Germany let them down. It is little Denmark that jumps to Holland's support and has sided up with it today. Shame on Germany once again. Shame.

[Schroeder]

Media say the Dutch asked Germany for help in their row with Turkey, and Germany let them down. It is little Denmark that jumps to Holland's support and has sided up with it today. Shame on Germany once again. Shame.
Did you really expect anything less? Like Merkel having a spine (well, I know you didn't but some people still do for reasons that are beyond me)?
There are a few million weaponized refugees waiting in Turkey to be let lose into Europe and both Erogan and Merkel know this. We've lost! We had lost the moment when we decided that others should be responsible for protecting our borders. We had lost when we didn't care for the refugee problems that haunted Greece and Italy for years. We had lost when we decided that Turkey has to be our friend and ally no matter what. I can only congratulate Erdogan. He's played all his cards and every one was higher than the ones we had. We've only one card left to play and that's tourism. But since we, as a people, don't give a sheet enough of us will still go there on vacation and leave their money there which Turkey so desperately needs.:/\\!!

[Oberon]

If the future is so dark then what's the point in going forward to it? :hmmm:

[Schroeder]

If the future is so dark then what's the point in going forward to it? :hmmm:
What's the alternative? Blowing my brains out? Surrender and let it happen unopposed? All we can do is communicate with people. Change their perspective so that they won't fall for the garbage of the left that we're told but also to prevent them from believing all the unfounded garbage from the right that say the only solution to the problem would be to install the 4th Reich. We need to get the center of the political spectrum to act and not leave it to the far right/left which will happen if the center doesn't finally get it's act together.:/\\!!

[ValoWay]

If the future is so dark then what's the point in going forward to it? :hmmm:

http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2008/05_04/035ostrich_468x538.jpg
http://www.misconceptionjunction.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/ostrich-head-e1282040310754-290x160.jpg

As long as it stays that way :O:

[ikalugin]

What's the alternative? Blowing my brains out? Surrender and let it happen unopposed? All we can do is communicate with people. Change their perspective so that they won't fall for the garbage of the left that we're told but also to prevent them from believing all the unfounded garbage from the right that say the only solution to the problem would be to install the 4th Reich. We need to get the center of the political spectrum to act and not leave it to the far right/left which will happen if the center doesn't finally get it's act together.:/\\!!
Implying that EU is not the 4th Reich.

[ikalugin]

Makes me wonder if this diplomatic crisis would actually turn into something significant.

[Skybird]

Did you really expect anything less? Like Merkel having a spine (well, I know you didn't but some people still do for reasons that are beyond me)?
There are a few million weaponized refugees waiting in Turkey to be let lose into Europe and both Erogan and Merkel know this. We've lost! We had lost the moment when we decided that others should be responsible for protecting our borders. We had lost when we didn't care for the refugee problems that haunted Greece and Italy for years. We had lost when we decided that Turkey has to be our friend and ally no matter what. I can only congratulate Erdogan. He's played all his cards and every one was higher than the ones we had. We've only one card left to play and that's tourism. But since we, as a people, don't give a sheet enough of us will still go there on vacation and leave their money there which Turkey so desperately needs.:/\\!!
We are not lost - we still have options left. For examplew to seal off the borders and again pratcice the covereign right of soveriegnb states to decide whom from outside we let pass and whom not.

We want to be lost, by not doing this. That is the difference. instead we attack Trump over his attempt to seal the Mexican border, lecture Americans wanting to stop illegal immigration into the US. :timeout: Why don'T we help the Bulgarians and Greeks to seal off their border with Turkey? Turkey is no part of Europe and not member of the EU. That means the Bulgarian and Greek borders are the outer borders of the whole EU in that area. We should help by technology, material, and if needed border police contingents. Other European nations should do that as well, and affected border states shoulkd receoive that assistance. Instead Merkel and Tusk and others demand all others to let everybody in and to accept refugees that Germany has channeled into Europe en masse. Idiots we are. Anything to make sure these borders are tight, should be done, and then all traffic gets controlled again, like in the time before Shengen.

Like plain, healthy reason would dictate it.

We should do so with all outer borders, and the mediterranean. And we have the means to do so. What prevents us? Only our own self-restraints.

We should do like the Australians, and we should broacast the situation on sea via airwaves to the ME and Africa - so that people see how bad it is. We should have detention camps like the Australians and lioke Auistria'S Kurtz is demanding, and we should have live TV coverage of the Australian regime we run there. Does not work? The Australians disagree, their illegal immigration rate is down to below 3% of the former levels they had. They have now the situaiton that not only they can chose whiom they let in and whiom not - but that they indeed can control it and enforce their decisions to be followed.

We could do these things as well, the options all exist. We do not want to use them. That is a difference. Not being able to do something, and not wanting to do something, are not the same.

We want them to stzay away, but we are not wanting to tell them.We hope the fairy queen stops them for us, or that they stay away all by themsaelves, all of a sudden, for miraculous reasons and mysterious motivations. We could say No. But we do not want to be seen by anyone that we actually say No. We bring out this seed this seed with both hands - and our harvest will be accordingly. Idiots we are. We are not being stopped, or being prevented - we are idiots, drunk of our own self-delusions and good-doer-syndrome. Our brains are rotten from all our high flying superidealism. No neurons left to calculate reality realistically.

[mapuc]

We can, as we almost always have done in a civilized world-discuss, debating and maybe throw words against each other, while those who have a more darken agenda keep on with their work unimpeded.

Markus

[Oberon]

All we can do is communicate with people.

https://media.giphy.com/media/dC9DTdqPmRnlS/giphy.gif


I think you'd have more luck with the other option.

[Nippelspanner]

Implying that EU is not the 4th Reich.
Wat.

[ikalugin]

Wat.
A half troll. There is a fairly popular view the EU is the German attempt to create an Empire within Europe.

[Schroeder]

We want to be lost, by not doing this. That is the difference.
How is that different from what I wrote? I wrote we had lost when we decided not to take care of our own borders, when we decided to become passive and not do anything. Right now I would be surprised if we even had enough border security personnel to effectively guard something the size of Luxembourg. So just closing the borders might not even be possible for us at the moment as it takes years of training to get those officers in uniform.

[Nippelspanner]

A half troll. There is a fairly popular view the EU is the German attempt to create an Empire within Europe.

Oh, that's what you're referring to.
Well in that case empire fits better indeed, I see no parallels to anything nazi with today's Germany and was therefore a little confused.
Naturally Germany wants a strong Europe and of course it wants to maintain its leading status. Nothing bad though, someone has to, and I somehow don't see cute Denmark doing it, though Denmark shows more guts than Germany atm.

A shame the brain dead right wing populist fear mongers all want an end to the EU, the only thing guaranteeing us peace, at least between European countries. Well, that and NATO.
Big mistake to end the EU in my opinion. It needs to be handled differently, but of course politicians weren't able to act smartly and reasonable, so now everybody's leaving the sinking ship...

[ikalugin]

Oh, that's what you're referring to.
Well in that case empire fits better indeed, I see no parallels to anything nazi with today's Germany and was therefore a little confused.
Naturally Germany wants a strong Europe and of course it wants to maintain its leading status. Nothing bad though, someone has to, and I somehow don't see cute Denmark doing it, though Denmark shows more guts than Germany atm.

A shame the brain dead right wing populist fear mongers all want an end to the EU, the only thing guaranteeing us peace, at least between European countries. Well, that and NATO.
Big mistake to end the EU in my opinion. It needs to be handled differently, but of course politicians weren't able to act smartly and reasonable, so now everybody's leaving the sinking ship...
I think that within that narrative 4th Reich is a fine term, as the 4th Reich would differ from the 3rd Reich the same way 3rd Reich differed from the 2nd.

From what I understand the core of that narrative is that Germany both benefits more from the EU and has a greater control over the EU than any other member state.

[Nippelspanner]

I think that within that narrative 4th Reich is a fine term, as the 4th Reich would differ from the 3rd Reich the same way 3rd Reich differed from the 2nd.

From what I understand the core of that narrative is that Germany both benefits more from the EU and has a greater control over the EU than any other member state.

Good observation, you gotta know, being German, my school system tried to make me panic and hate myself whenever I hear or read about some "Reich", and sometimes it works, it seems. Lol.

And sure Germany wants maximum profit. It's a bunch of dirty politicians, no matter the country.
However, a strong EU would still be the best possible outcome in so many regards. Be it to keep Russia from annexing more eastern countries (come on, they are like Pokémon for Putin, he wants them all! :p), or keep Turkey from doing who knows what and also to counter America's absolute power. With each EU country on its own, there would be many possible dangers to global stability (which is instable already).

But Meh, this isn't really my turf, I might be off by miles.

[Jimbuna]

Did you really expect anything less? Like Merkel having a spine (well, I know you didn't but some people still do for reasons that are beyond me)?
There are a few million weaponized refugees waiting in Turkey to be let lose into Europe and both Erogan and Merkel know this. We've lost! We had lost the moment when we decided that others should be responsible for protecting our borders. We had lost when we didn't care for the refugee problems that haunted Greece and Italy for years. We had lost when we decided that Turkey has to be our friend and ally no matter what. I can only congratulate Erdogan. He's played all his cards and every one was higher than the ones we had. We've only one card left to play and that's tourism. But since we, as a people, don't give a sheet enough of us will still go there on vacation and leave their money there which Turkey so desperately needs.:/\\!!

An opinion I suspect that is gathering momentum in more European countries than simply Germany.

[Skybird]

LINK - Report: Merkel and Rutte made concrete promises with Turkey over refugee quota (http://www.dw.com/en/report-merkel-and-rutte-made-concrete-promises-with-turkey-over-refugee-quota/a-37913580)

What a treacherous lying beast.

The political self-declared "elite" since long time already has established a feudal self-definition again. Peacefully this scum will not give up power, that is for certain, elections change nothing here - the scum prevails. Its names and smells vary, its automatism to stay in power remains. Already now all poltical party only represnett tiny ractions of the total electorate, none of them is even close to having somethign like a real majority. Pepel turnign away form politics don'T do that due to laziness or lacking interest, but because of getting realistically desillusionised - and also by being driven away by the stinking smells.

"In government, the scum raises to the top." A.F. Hayek.

Seal off those damn borders, all you dreamdancers of Europe. Stop cooperatio with Turkey on everything. get the Geran Tonaos out of Incirlik, and the Gerna Patriot missiles that only are there becasue Erdoghan held up a loop and wanted NATO to jump through it. The threat of Syrian air and missile attacks into Turkey never was a realistic scenario. In fact is has been qite the other way around - already since years before the Syrian conflict saw Turkey engaging.

Instead we get more German lecturing on that the Dutch "walked into a trap" and that they should have hoped instead that if they take the spanking while sitting still, Turks would not vote for Erdoghan. What a smelly, rotten, foul pseudo-logic that is.

If unwanted people storm your house and guests show up you have not invited and do not want, you do not appeal, you do not bribe them to go, you do not give them gifts in exchange for them behaving kinder, you do not smile - you call the police to throw them out, and then slam the door behind them and lock it.

[Skybird]

http://www.dw.com/en/merkels-chief-of-staff-mulls-ban-on-turkish-politicians-entering-country/a-37938390

After the federal state Saarland has formally banned any foreeign pllticians from cappaigning for national elections in theor cintry, the chancellor'S office has started to releaes warnign sthat the Geran govenrment cna mull such a ban nationwide, which the highest court of the coutnry has found some days ago to be in conformaity with already existing laws that indeed do a,low that.

Erdoghan'S AKP vice leader threatened to head for Germany as well, and in the coming days 16 more propaganda festivals by Turkish ministers i germany are announced, with another 10-15 such events being planned afterwards until the Turkish election.

The warning thus is just that so far: a warning, means: a verbal hint that costs nothing and binds nobody. And at the same time the German government agreed that in principle nothing speaksagainst having Turkish polling stations established in Germany.

Which, seeing all this together, to me sends another message: if Turkey only stops comparing us evil wicked Germans with Nazis, then Erdoghan can have his will in Germany as he pleases.

Why non-German Turks with idoitcally holding two passports should not travel to their wonderful homeland Turkey for casting their precious vote, or have their vote sent via mail, is beyond me. Whats next - Turkish ministries haveing branch offices set up in Germany? AKP party offices? Another palace for the Sultan? But hey, we already allow two Turkish ministries - religion and education - to massively interfere with German sovereign inner politics - on the grounds of treaties giving the Turks this right. Sovereign...?

Stupid this German habit is to so often state two detrimental opposites simultaneously and then claiming that is a "balanced approach". I call it: "avoiding to take a stand for anything, ever".

Turkish politicians by habit use the option to speak in Germany to call Turks living here to resist to integration and to not forget what country their real home is. Criticising this often triggers enragedfury of that demanding Turks to integrate is a crime against humanity.

For these reasons I am totally against double-nationalities. From some time on, you have to make a choice for either the one or the other. No cherry picking all life long. Two passports do not help integration, but absolutely hinder it.

Snapshot of German climate: http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/erdogan-and-turkish-referendum-divides-german-society-a-1138272.html


http://www.tagesspiegel.de/images/heprodimagesfotos82520170315nicht_nett_ts-jpg/19516344/2-format6001.jpg

"Don't allow to get provoked... don't allow to get provoked... don't allow to get provoked..."

[ikalugin]

I always assumed that allowing citizens of a foreighn country to vote in the diplomatic missions of that foreighn country for the elected officials of that foreighn country is normal.

I mean that is how Russian opposition parties get any votes - from voters in London and other such places.

[Skybird]

I always assumed that allowing citizens of a foreighn country to vote in the diplomatic missions of that foreighn country for the elected officials of that foreighn country is normal.

I mean that is how Russian opposition parties get any votes - from voters in London and other such places.

Germany is no foreign country to Turkey, but a not yet-conquered province only. Europe is Islam's, Europe is the Osmans'. And Germany is Turkey's. Only the US is given so many special rights in Germany, as Turkey enjoys. Just for very different reasons. And the Americans are wise enough not to make a big story of it. But Turkey - always shouting, always balking, always, demading more, more, more. Its like this since the AKP came to power and Erdoghan took over so many years ago now. They should have shot him in jail instead of releasing him, it would have been the greatest possible service to Turkey, the Turkish people, and us. Reminds me of a little Füher problem that our ancestors once have had over here.

[ikalugin]

Germany is no foreign country to Turkey, but a not yet-conquered province only. Europe is Islam's, Europe is the Osmans'. And Germany is Turkey's. Only the US is given so many special rights in Germany, as Turkey enjoys. Just for very different reasons. And the Americans are wise enough not to make a big story of it. But Turkey - always shouting, always balking, always, demading more, more, more. Its like this since the AKP came to power and Erdoghan took over so many years ago now. They should have shot him in jail instead of releasing him, it would have been the greatest possible service to Turkey, the Turkish people, and us. Reminds me of a little Füher problem that our ancestors once have had over here.
Well if other countries (ie Russia) can use their diplomatic missions for voting in Germany, why can't Turkey?

[Skybird]

Don't ask me. Why Turkish people in Germany must be given additional polling stations outside their diplomatic missions, in the public sphere as if it were about a German national election, is beyond me. Cant they travel to Turkey? Or go to their next embassy in Germany? Or vote by mail? Why must the Germans consider additional stations outside of all that? I have no clue different from "appeasement". However, later news form this day indicates that even the German lambs have enough now, and mull a total freezing of financial assets, economic contacts, further developing of th elatter, and even a formalö interruption, if not ultimate ending of the talks to join the EU (will not happen anyway anymore...) are on the agenda now. It seems some German politicians start to worry for their own election chances. Opening fire at Turkey's financial and economic dependencies however is a two-sided sword, since when you have a creditor and a lender, it is the creditor who holds the risk that he does not get anything back from his leased money. Thats why I criticise since many years thwe West'S self-deceiving entzusiasm in "investing" in Turkey. All these are at risk now. Personally I think they are pretty much lost. My compassion is limited, however. I warned for years and years to invest in Turkey and supporting it. Its just that a collapsing Turkish banking system once again will be at our cost. Many European banks have serious stakes of money at risk in Turkey, especially Italian and Greek ones with their already fragile situation at home. This paper money system is a total mess. On a side-note, the federal state of Saxony-Anhalt has become the second one banning Turkish ministers from holding rallies there. What Saxony-Anhalt and Saarland have in common? No such assemblies were planned there anyway.

[ikalugin]

Ahh, so they were demanding additional polling stations? Well then tought luck for them I guess.

[Skybird]

No, they did not demand them. At least not in the news from early this morning. The germans offered them voluntarily. And now it is official: the Turks have been formally advised that Germany officially allows polling stations in 13 cities.

[ikalugin]

No, they did not demand them. At least not in the news from early this morning. The germans offered them voluntarily. And now it is official: the Turks have been formally advised that Germany officially allows polling stations in 13 cities.
Well if Germany volonteered then what is the problem?

[Skybird]

Grrr, don't kill my nerves. The problem is the stupidity behind this German reasoning, this "never say/do/claim one thign without simultaneously saying/doing/claimiung th eother thing, else you're a biased bad boy discmrinating other opinions/views/intentions." Niemandem je ein Aua, niemandem je ein Weh.

[ValoWay]

I think it's very democratic when e.g. turks can vote in e.g. germany. I also do not mind when foreign politicians come to other countries for political rallies. That's, however their business and they have to pay it out of their own pockets.

I mean think about it, when every single country suddenly wants to go on rallies in foreign countries is the local tax payer rly supposed to sponsor all of that and on top of that their oppositions, too, maybe?

The real question EU member states have to ask themselves is if they support a foreign government or not? I think kim jong un probably wouldn't get the go ahead from the EU if he wanted to visit us to teach us some real politics :p2:

[Skybird]

Domestic policies belong into the according country, not foreign ones. And another problem is that only Erdoghanic AKP-minsters go to Germany for campaigning - while AKP-opponents go to Turkish jails. Turkey is the worldwide biggest jail now for correspondents and journalists. In no other country, globally, journalists and press representatives get as sacked and locked away in such quantiies - and the regime doing this we allow to campaign in Germany for even more power to the tyrant?

[ikalugin]

Domestic policies belong into the according country, not foreign ones. And another problem is that only Erdoghanic AKP-minsters go to Germany for campaigning - while AKP-opponents go to Turkish jails. Turkey is the worldwide biggest jail now for correspondents and journalists. In no other country, globally, journalists and press representatives get as sacked and locked away in such quantiies - and the regime doing this we allow to campaign in Germany for even more power to the tyrant?
Ovearall I agree, as I do not see why support of Erdogan would be beneficial to German national interests.

However in general I think that it is possible for the goverment of one country to support the goverment of another country on the basis of realpolitic national interests even if that other country supports a different ideology to yours.

[Skybird]

During Merkel's visit, German reporters seem to have caught Trump on the wrong foot, also "shocking" their American collegagues, American described it

http://www.dw.com/en/us-reporters-praise-german-journalists-for-questioning-trump/a-38004960

In Trumps meeting with Merkel, Trump gave me the string impression of a man who is very uncertain of himself, and wants to overplay that by beeing noisy and accentuating a typical male shoulder-tapping attitude. With Sushi like Merkel, he could not have been successful in that.

Merkel however was visibly irritated by the dominant role Trump's daughter Ivanka Trump plays.

[Skybird]

Schulz becomes chairman of the SPD with 100% of the votes.

http://www.dw.com/en/schulz-slams-trump-populists-in-accepting-spd-nomination/a-38014736

An opportunistic populist complaining about populism. How original.

Anthrax or Ebola, dear german voters in 6 months, - what shall it be for you?

[Nippelspanner]

Schulz becomes chairman of the SPD with 100% of the votes.

http://www.dw.com/en/schulz-slams-trump-populists-in-accepting-spd-nomination/a-38014736

An opportunistic populist complaining about populism. How original.

Anthrax or Ebola, dear german voters in 6 months, - what shall it be for you?

I don't see why everyone freaks out about Schulz,so far all he did was talking-nice.
He appears wrong to me, fake. Yes, they all are, but some are worse, and he plays Mr. Volksnah a little too hard I find.
However, since Merkel seems unable to do the right things or do things at all, I will probably vote for the new guy, hoping something will change for the better.

[Schroeder]

I don't see why everyone freaks out about Schulz,so far all he did was talking-nice.
He appears wrong to me, fake. Yes, they all are, but some are worse, and he plays Mr. Volksnah a little too hard I find.
However, since Merkel seems unable to do the right things or do things at all, I will probably vote for the new guy, hoping something will change for the better.
The only thing that keeps me from doing that is the chance that this would turn into a Red-Red-Green coalition. Both the Left and the Green are in denial of certain realities and having both in the government would in my opinion be disastrous for Germany.:wah:
I rather stay with Merkel than letting any of those clowns take over....(that I would live to see the day at which I prefer a CDU government over any other constellation....:/\\!!:/\\!!:/\\!!)
It reminds me very much of the US election. Only idiots to vote for an no matter who you vote, Germany will lose either way.:/\\!!

[Skybird]

I don't see why everyone freaks out about Schulz,so far all he did was talking-nice.
He appears wrong to me, fake. Yes, they all are, but some are worse, and he plays Mr. Volksnah a little too hard I find.
However, since Merkel seems unable to do the right things or do things at all, I will probably vote for the new guy, hoping something will change for the better.

You... hope...?

Hope is no strategy, no plan, no nothing. Its just summoning the fairy queen. You can known what will happen when he gets legitimised to run the office: the German policies on many levels will see dramatic shifts to the left. Merkel does that, too, left and right as political descriptions are almost meaningless nowadays to describe the characteristics of political parties.

There is only one reasonable option you have by which you do not compromise your own integrity: refusing to legitmise any rat in the rat pack the political establishment is.

Maybe - most likely - this will not acchieve a change for the better, here now deeper-rootiung processes and historical inner dynamicsare at work as if it would make a difference whether you vote for this or that non-option. of. But by withholding yourself from the demands of the mainstream, you become a little bit less guilty yourself.


Es gibt aber in der Menschheitsgeschchte Zeiten, wo jeglicher Optimismus nur unverantwortliche Verblendung und Feigheit bedeutet, während der Pessimism es es immerhin erlaubt, dem Unausweichlichen ehrenhaft und mit offenen Augen entgegenzutreten. - David Engels

[skidman]

the German policies on many levels will see dramatic shifts to the left.

Good. It's about time.

refusing to legitmise any rat in the rat pack the political establishment is.

So? Do you recommend voting for the filthy rats that try to demote our society back to the fifties, or not voting at all?

[ValoWay]

I am surprised, though, what the american media recently wrote about Merkel..

...It was like that throughout Mr. Trump’s first meeting with Ms. Merkel on Friday, an awkward encounter that was the most closely watched of his young presidency and took on an outsize symbolism: the great disrupter confronts the last defender of the liberal world order (WTF?)...

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/17/world/europe/angela-merkel-donald-trump.html

...No Western leader knows Vladimir Putin better than Angela Merkel. While she led Europe in pressing for tough sanctions against Russia for its seizure of Crimea and incursions into Eastern Ukraine, Putin respects her toughness and longevity in office. Indeed, Merkel speaks to Putin virtually every week by telephone. She has told confidants that she sees it as an essential duty. Putin needs to hear from voices outside his immediate Kremlin circle. And without her regular contacts, he would not -- a potential catastrophe for the West. If there is anyone who could teach Trump about Putin, it's Merkel. Hopefully, Trump will have the patience and good sense to listen as his course of instruction begins...

http://edition.cnn.com/2017/03/16/opinions/trump-merkel-meeting-advice-opinion-andelman/index.html

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6lyxAfDZnCQ

[ikalugin]

I am surprised, though, what the american media recently wrote about Merkel..



https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/17/world/europe/angela-merkel-donald-trump.html



http://edition.cnn.com/2017/03/16/opinions/trump-merkel-meeting-advice-opinion-andelman/index.html
I don't see how this is strange. With the apparently less interventional policies of Trump some of the US elites wish for the ideologically close German goverment to take the mantle of leadership.

[Skybird]

Putin not so much respects Merkel, but realises she is a primary obstacles to his plans for Europe.

[ikalugin]

Putin not so much respects Merkel, but realises she is a primary obstacles to his plans for Europe.

Those "plans", attibuted to Putin, were created by the Western observers and are the result of demonisation of Putin.

The sad thing here is that this demonisation precludes analasys of Russian capabilities and intentions.

[ikalugin]

https://russiamil.wordpress.com/2017/03/17/new-gerasimov-article-on-nature-of-warfare/

There is virtually no discussion of Russian efforts to engage in information warfare or hybrid warfare of any kind. “Little green men” play no role in this vision of Russian military power. Instead, we are given to understand that Russia will respond to any aggression with overwhelming force.

[Skybird]

That article on a writing by Gerasimov effectively shows and says nothing. Only that Gerasimov seems to be very effective in spreading doubts on Russia's hybrid warfare - that same hybrid warfare that it has masterfully practiced on the Crimean.

You already have forgotten the quote by Gerasimov that I have had in my signature until some weeks ago. And where he stated exactly the opposite of what Gorenburg quotes him with now.

[ikalugin]

You already have forgotten the quote by Gerasimov that I have had in my signature until some weeks ago. And where he stated exactly the opposite of what Gorenburg quotes him with now.
Because that quote was not representative of his work and I told you that before.

It's use by you does illustrate the problem however, instead of trying to analyse your adversary you are attibuting your fears as it's intentions. Quote mining is but a tool in that process.

For example, did you try to critically think about as to why would Russia invade or otherwise conduct operations againt Eastern European NATO members?

[Skybird]

Gerasimov is one of the architects, or better: revivers of the "new" strategy in question. In fact it is old KGB school from the 70s already, I think, if not earlier, and the whole Crimean desinformation and confusing campaing was run like from a KGB textbook. The quote I used until some time ago thus is VERY representative - and you, ikalugin, play again your distraction game here - deflect, mislead, distract. All what you claim that it does not exist and would not make sense, - has been proven to exist for real and was exceuted for real on the Crimean, and the desire by Putin to get back what was lost during the collapse of the USSR, you simply ignore. Why Russia would want that,m you ask. Becasue thats what it is about: to regian old fame and status, power and somyblism, and last but not least: the old, former sphere of influence that NATO has "stolen". Putin may not have been like this since always. But he certainly turned into that over the past lets say 10 years or more, in reaction to NATO pushing East on and on, and Europe not taking Russia as serious as Russia wanted to be taken as. I give Russia more credit here than the common Western position, esoecially the American one, does - but I give it less credit than Russia demands. And that leaves me with pleny of free space asnd thinlking freedom, for I am standing between all seats and cannot (and will not) satisfy any of the two sides.

Im getting tired of this. I have no idea whether you have any intentional interest or job in defending these new old Russian (in)doctrinal ways - but if you have not, then these desinformation tactics nevertheless still work wonderfully well on your thinking and fully deliver on their purpose. You argue in full compliance with what they want to achieve. And you tell me they do not exist, not their mechanisms, not their goals or targets. Ha!

[ikalugin]

Im getting tired of this. I have no idea whether you have any intentional interest or job in defending these new old Russian (in)doctrinal ways - but if you have not, then these desinformation tactics nevertheless still work wonderfully well on your thinking and fully deliver on their purpose. You argue in full compliance with what they want to achieve. And you tell me they do not exist, not their mechanisms, not their goals or targets. Ha! Ok, so you attack my character.

The amusing thing is that I am more likely to be influenced by the Western propaganda because I access western media more often than Russian media and I am not at all exposed to the state owned TV channels (RT, R24, etc) because I don't watch them. Morever I can get the insider view on the narratives they spin and thus understand how it is different from reality because one of my friends works in R24.

But I guess as you don't understand Russia nor do you have access to insider sources it would be very hard for you to do your own reasearch, say into the works by Gerasimov, rather than quote mining.

[Skybird]

After the state of Hesse announced that Erdoghan is no longer welcomed in Germany, the AKP let announce via her platform UETP that until the referendum no more Turkish ministers will try to come to Germany to hold rallies. Originally around 30 more of such visits were planned.

Erdoghan meanwhile had started to not just attack Germany and the anonymous political scene in general, but has become poerosnalyl offensive again merkel and repeatedly defamed her personally.

Since a few days however the number of migrants arriving in grecce and coming from Turkey, has dramatically grown. It seems Turkey has opened at least some flood gates.

Recent publications in newspapers and book form lay out the case of that in 2015 the German government was indeed quite prepaaredf to close the borders when the mirgants storm began. But cabinet members feared the bad images of migrants becoming violent and borde rguards needing to act resolute in defending the border and refusing them to pass. So Merkel, the inteiror mionister and all others as well capitulated to the cirucmstance and said: let them pass. This so is a total government failure, and an irresponisble neglect of duties of all according ministers and Merkel herself. Nobody wnated to take the responsibility.

[Skybird]

Merkel is facing consevatives in her own party organising and unifying, forming a new front against her left-leaning policy.

http://www.dw.com/en/merkel-and-the-rise-of-the-right/a-38075019

Merkel has stayed in power for over a decade because whenever a poltila opponent showe dup, she annexed his agenda and made it her own. By that she now stands for all and nothing, for the only principle of that no principle shall come in her way. 100% opprtunism. Within her own poarty, all poltical heavy weights that at the beginning of her reign were not in line with here, have been mobbed out, promoted out of the way, frustrated until they voluntarily quite. The personnel pool of he rparty is comp0letely eroded, exhausted, empty. Which explaisn why the CDU is so desperately sticking to her - they have no alternatives anymore.

However, I think that Merkel will not win elections again this year. Which will give us the great ego of Martin Schultz, one of the worst left populists and agitators there are in Germany, and Europe. Unbearable.

So better Merkel? Unbearable as well. Mass migration that she channeled to Europe and Germany and her unwillingness to fulfill the constitutional duty of the govenrment to secure the borders - these two things have broken the people's loyalty for her. Plus a subjective feeling that she already is in office since 20 years. Germans grow tired of her.

[ikalugin]

It appears that her party claims to be under attack by the evill Russian hackers.

[ValoWay]

For the love of god, please, don't vote for SPD's Schulz! They should rename themselves to 'the lobbyists' minion party' or 'LMP' :timeout:

[Nippelspanner]

under attack by the evill Russian hackers.

Are you trying to be sarcastic/ironic?
Because there is a rather big hacker/trolling activity, Kremlin controlled and fueled, so... Yeah, evil russian hackers indeed.

[Skybird]

Are you trying to be sarcastic/ironic?
Because there is a rather big hacker/trolling activity, Kremlin controlled and fueled, so... Yeah, evil russian hackers indeed.

That is just fake news from the BND! ;) :D In alternative interpretation of reality, it is the Germans rigging the elections in Russia. And America. :yeah:

[Catfish]

Are you trying to be sarcastic/ironic?
Because there is a rather big hacker/trolling activity, Kremlin controlled and fueled, so... Yeah, evil russian hackers indeed.

Do not call this evil, it is patriotic.
Be more positive.

[ikalugin]

Are you trying to be sarcastic/ironic?
Because there is a rather big hacker/trolling activity, Kremlin controlled and fueled, so... Yeah, evil russian hackers indeed.
I am, I would like to see the evidence behind any such politically convenient accusations. The materials I have seen presented regarding the DNC story:
- either do not have evidence regarding attibution, only conclusions (such as joint statements)
- or say that the agencies investigating got their evidence from private company hired by the DNC (recent hearings)
But then I am salty/paranoid of everything I did not see with my two eyes.

To be honest, after the year-zero leaks I think that CIA/NSA hack into German elections is about as if not more likely.

[ikalugin]

As an honest full disclosure of my personal views and thus the narrative I present here. There are several parts to it.

First of all I believe that an entity is not guilty unless proven to as a fact (with due process and such). Thus in this way it is irrelevant as to if the crime was or was not commited, only if it was proven to have been commited.

Secondly I do understand the relevant established views on this broad topic and form my personal opinion on the materials I have seen (note the difference between opinions and facts).

In my personal view what is happening is projection, projection of capabilities and intent. As is it apparent from open western materials (such as the recent leaks) the US system is a proffesional, well organised, well controlled instrument.

This is projected onto Russian state affiliated actors (where Russian actors are indeed reponsible, as cyber attribution is more or less impossible), in that they are well organised and well controlled and thus a non authorised action is unlikely.

To me it appears that the contrary is closer to reality - that Russian actors exist in a quasi-feudal relationship with their individual benefactors in the relevant LE, which causes some embaracing conflicts (such as the recent arrest of the FSB officer who was running "Shaltai-Boltai" group, responsible for leaking Medvedev's emails). Thus even if an attack can be attributed to a specific actor, affiliated with the Russian state, it doesnt mean that Russian state as an institution, or the Russian NCA authorised or were even aware of such attacks.

[Catfish]

True. I think after the Stuxnet attack staged by Israel and the US all think that all is possible, without having real intelligence or evidence.

On the other hand if the possibility exists it is most likely that this kind of cyber war is being used, by all. Just logical deduction.

[Skybird]

State elections in the Saarland today:

http://www.dw.com/en/merkel-gets-early-election-test-with-saarland-state-poll/a-38036904

[Skybird]

A bit surprisingly the Merkel party won almost 6% to their last result, while the SPD lost 1 or 2 points. Greens are out, AfD stays in.

http://www.dw.com/en/saarland-state-vote-starts-germanys-super-election-year/a-38125722

And this is the so-called "honest" result, which calculates the non-voters ("Nichtwähler", in grey) into the official final results:

https://www2.pic-upload.de/img/32910984/Unbenannt.jpg (https://www.pic-upload.de)

Before the national elections in some months, there will come state parliamentary elections in Schleswig-Holstein and Northrhine-Westphalia.

[Skybird]

Not politics, but still an odd curiosity of history:

http://www.dw.com/en/125-years-of-made-in-germany/a-16188583

I heard some foreign politicians would like to have a label "Made not in Germany" :O:

[Jimbuna]

Typical....copying us Brits again :hmmm:

Good choice though :smug:

[Catfish]

"The act aimed to ensure that all foreign products - which could potentially threaten the success of British merchandise - were branded with a label. It was an attempt to prompt British buyers to "buy British." Each trading nation that wanted to do business in Great Britain had to label its products with their country of origin."

That went really well, did it? :03:


OT Did someone recently spot Oberon? Did not read anything from him lately :hmmm: Hope all is well.

[Nippelspanner]

OT Did someone recently spot Oberon? Did not read anything from him lately :hmmm: Hope all is well.Well, you know what they say about Unkraut. :D

[Jimbuna]

OT Did someone recently spot Oberon? Did not read anything from him lately :hmmm: Hope all is well.

Nothing from him since 29th March on FB :hmmm:

[Skybird]

http://www.dw.com/en/new-book-reveals-behind-the-scenes-how-merkel-dealt-with-refugee-crisis/a-38268542

I mentioned it before.

However, I pick another reading next, in some days the German translation of Jason Brennan: Against Democracy is released in Germany. I expect to agree with his analysis and diagnosis, but I am wondering whether he has a more realisticc, more convincing alternative model to offer than Hans-Herrmann Hoppe (who also filed in the correct analysis and diagnosis, but fell victim a bit to naivety with the alternative he was offering).

[Nippelspanner]

Well, you know what they say about Unkraut. :D

Last Activity: 03-14-2017 05:42 AM

Ok, that's a little atypical for him indeed, maybe there is reason to worry?

[Skybird]

No good deed remains unavenged.

http://www.dw.com/en/germans-wanting-to-aid-refugees-now-at-risk-of-bankruptcy/a-38385732

[Catfish]

No good deed remains unavenged. [...]

This is why we (tapping own shoulder) are the shining example of the whole world, and all have to follow us on our way to .. to .. whatever :03:

[Skybird]

^Nothing compares to the Berlin airport...

[ikalugin]

^Nothing compares to the Berlin airport...
Would you like to tell us about it? :)

[Skybird]

The latest narration on it in English I found.

http://www.thejakartapost.com/travel/2017/03/30/berlins-airport-debacle-five-years-late-and-counting.html

Costs exploding. Five years late and counting. Too small already at planning state. Weekly costs of millions to just maintain the construction site where no work gets done. The city state of Berlin is not rich, but highly corrupt and subsidized by other states. But always having a big, super-wide mouth. I know Berlin since decades, I lived there. Bah.

And what the article does not say: since some months now first legal experts and external construction experts say the mess is so complete that the whole place will never open and probably will need to get dismantled.

Incometence, planning dilletantism, impostors, personal animosities, fraud, corruption, a completely incompetent senate (Berlin politics since decades are a mess...) - it all came together.

You will find no case in wole Europe that is even close to this mess, not even in Greece.

Hey, in 2013 short before the planned opening I said "Never! Not before another 5 years - minimum!" And now 2018 is coming...

[Jimbuna]

^Apply for more EU subsidies :O:

[Catfish]

^ what do you think we'll do with the 50 billions :O:

[Jimbuna]

Give it to some net receiver no doubt :)

[Skybird]

Turkey's new sultan Erdoghan seems to have gotten what he wanted, a new state order with him as the strong Führer, so the coup he staged last year (I take it for granted that he has been the driving force behind it) and the tens of thousands of journalists, critics, intellectuals arrested, finally have paid off. Thats is no surprise, since a majority of the Turks has voted for Erdoghan and the AKP. However, the gap between Ynd Nay is exytremely close, a hair's width only.

Considering the last detail, the narrowness of this decision, somethign else catches the attention. Of the Turks in Germany, two in three have voted for the change in Turkey.

What does this say about their willingness to integrate into the state order in Germany, and their attitude towards "democracy"? A rethoric question only, I do not wait for answers, since everybody can know them already. Its like I always said. Integration of Turks in Germany, as integration of Mulsim groups in Germany and in Europe in general, is a disaster story. It has failed, due to active resistence by the "migrants". Colonists is a better word.

The last echoes of the old Kemalistic order has been swept away now. The old Turkey of pre-Erdoghan times is no more. The militrary now by majopirty supports erdoghan, and has betrayed its function as guardian of the Kemalist constitution. Which again is no surprise, sinc eErdighan since one decade has systematically exchnaged the officer corps and has made sure that his followers advance through the ranks in record time, to bring them in control of the armed forces.

Merkels reaction? She appealed to Erdoghan to be reaosnable. This while 15 German nationals are held in arrest since months and all embassy contact to them being rejected, Turkey'S intelligence service being probabaly th emost actove and one of the most hostile ones in Germans, erdoghan critics are being hunted and targetted by Turkish agents in Germany, and the offences by Erdoghan do not end.

I have started to read the German ediiton of this book by Jason brennan, "Against democracy". One of these bhooks that make you aware of how rotten and misled the fundament of our western order is. We get what we asked for, and so we deserve it.

[Catfish]

63 percent of Turks living in Germany voted FOR Erdoghan.
What a pity that the vote was secret, otherwise i would really like those 63 percent to migrate to, and live in, the new Turkey.

[Rockstar]

Freedom and Democracy in action!

[Schroeder]

63 percent of Turks living in Germany voted FOR Erdoghan.
What a pity that the vote was secret, otherwise i would really like those 63 percent to migrate to, and live in, the new Turkey.
They already do. New Turkey is here in Germany and Europe. Haven't you noticed that yet?:-?:dead:

[ValoWay]

Here's erdogan's upcoming speech. I understand it's top secret, though! So keep it to yourself..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ieolhEpRjkQ

http://www.emersonkent.com/speeches/returning_fire.htm

[Jimbuna]

One shall reap what one sows.

[Skybird]

Hey Catfish!
Sounds like you were thinking of this?

https://www.forumla.de/attachments/politik-gesellschaft/110211d1312995275-die-npd-bayernnpd-gutenheimflug1.png

I got this per mail today... I wonder who sent it... guess what! A friend from TURKEY (!!!!!!!!!)

I don'T recall exactly how often I was congratulated for being German when I were in the ME and North africa and Turkey - and got told how proud we Ger,mans should be that we managed to kill so many Jews. Great achievement. And they meant this as a serious complimentent. I heard that in Egypt, Turkey, Iran.

What I really do not understand is what logic you Germans follow:
First you invite them (as guest-workers).We did not. Back in those days when it all started, and the social ministry were in socialist SPD hands, it was the SPD tellig the Germans that the Turks were of a culture that would not integrate well. But Washington put Germany under massive pressure and effectively blackmailed Germany, because Washington wanted NATO compliance by Turkey and the right to station missiles there - and Turkey said the price for that woiuld be that germany takes up all the poor and hungry masses from Anatolian heartland that Turkey did not want to come up for. And so it started - against the explicit German will not to get them.

So againb, to make this one clear - Germany in the 50s and 60s started n egotiaitosn with Italy, Greece, Yugoslavia to have guests workers coming to germany. Turkey was EXCLUDED from the German wishlist. It was Washsington that forced Germany to let the Turks in, and then it was Washington that demanded that the treaties with Turkey limiting the stay and banning the family movement should be ignored.

Then you fail to integrate them.It is not our job to integrate them - they are the foreigner sin our place, and they are the once who came here fromt heir hoem country. Our place, our rules, one would assume. The absolute minimum that one can and must demand from foreign migrants is that they integrate into the rules and habits and society of the new place they went to. That is their mandatory obligaiton, their duty that they have to fill, without conditions, period. Its not up to the local population and owners of the palce to adapt to the foreigner - the foreigner has to adapt to the local residents. In other words: as a migrant, you have to integrate yourself. You do not get integrated, nor do you expect to have others integrating you. You have to do it yourself.


You never send those "guests" back.The treaties wioth Turkey bakc from the early 60s said that all Turkish guest workers had to leave the country again after I think 5 or ten years, I am not certain. that were the same treaties signed with other coutnries as well: Greece, Italy, Yugoslavia. Also, it was originally banned to shuttle in families once the father had arrived in Germany. Twenty years later, indeed most Italians, Yugos, Greek started to return, only a few left in germany, well integrated and doiung their own business, mosly restaurants. Just the Turks never moved. Never integrated. They shuttled their families in, and Washington demanded from Germany to ignore the treaties signed, after Turkey set up new conditions for their compliance regarding NATO policies. Just later the solcial polkcies in germany chnaged radically, and the left found their heart for the Turks, since orginbally the vast majority of Muslim migrants, and so the Turks, voted SPD, and so the "migration" of theirs to germany was a welcomed strengtening of the SPD's voters' pool.


You even let them vote for their home country IN YOUR country.Point taken, you are right on this. I complained about this myself before already. Its stupid. Even now, yesterday, some Green female carricature - Claudia Roth, a very special friend of mine - demanded that after 2 in 3 Turks voted for Erdoghan and in the Ruhrgebiet even 3 in 4, that this was Turkish revenge for the Germans not being welcoming enough and that we need to give them even more and easier double-citizenships and German passports... For retards like this woman, it is always us who are guilty. Strangely, problems with migrants we do not have in general at all, and the Greeks, and Italians and former Yugoslavs, and Spaniards, all that did not return to their homecountries but stayed here, are well integrated and are fine and there are no problems. It is just one special subgroup of migrants that time and again pose problems, and that is Muslims. Since Turks are the dominant Muslim faction, Turks are overrepresented therefore. Also overrepresented in crime statistics, in bad school scorings, social wellfare net receiving, unemployement. Usually you do not find many Koreans, Japanese, Chinese, Dutch, Danish, Polish, French, Brits, Americans, Canadians, South Americans in these negative statistics. But when you look at a Muslim migrant group, the negative statistcs scorings immediaterly go up.

And that is our fault...?

No. Its their fault.



And then still you do not tell them to leave when you got aware that they like your country less than their "home"-country?Again, guilty as charged. They use our own stupidity and cowardice against us. Its our own German idiocy. We think we mjst always demonstate to the world that we are not the evil bad Germans anymore, that we are no Nazis anymore. To modern Germans, standing up for legitimate German rights equals Nazism. Thats why the Greek - on the Euro-crisis - and the Turks swing the Nazi-club against us so unrestrained, and comploare Germns to Nazis the moment Germans, Germany do not comply with their demands.

That FdJ-agitator and propagandist Angela Merkel led Germany into that "refugeee-deal" with Turkey, making Germany extrmeely vulnerale for blakcmailign and abise that way, of course also has somethign to do with it. Merkel'S cabinet wanted to close the borders when they realsied what a desaster they had unleashed back in 2015 - and then they shied away since they feared the power of the images in the intenraitonal press once the borders would have been shut down. None of the whole cabint crew was willing to take that responsibility, these cowardish traitors.

What I mean: Why do these 63% percent stay in Germany when they prefer to vote in that manner?They take the rights but not the duties. Mostly, they are still better off with their lives over here, than they would be in Turkey. But complaining and criticising they nevertheless can, and remaning Turkish by hearts. Like so many Muslim migrant groups, the Turks never came to Germany to leave again, or to integrate. The guest workers from other countries did - not the Turks.

Add to the religious thing the ultra-strong Turkish nationalism, and then you have it.

Really shaking my head.Me too. As I usually say, and I mean that serious: Germans are hysteric romantics. They do not cooly calculate, that is just a stupid cliche. Germans want to feel. They think with the heart. And that is why they are so vulnerable for appeals to their sentiments and lower instincts. That explains a lot of the dramas in German history.

Thinking is for cold-hearted traders, ios for the much hated englische Krämerseele. We do not rationalise. We feel!

Or better - they feel like this. Myself, I do not feel typically German at all. And I am not a typical German. I am a foreigner in my own country of birth. Too cold-blooded and heartless I am, I get told. Too rational.

"Rational" - in Germany, that is an offence! ;) Well, I thank for the compliment that it indeed is.

[Skybird]

^ ;)

Forgive the many typos that I produce en masse, I just cannot type well, and I am too lazy and too impatient to correct my texts endlessly once I am finished, an unforgivable character flaw, I know I know... :) . "Was Hänschen nicht lernt, lernt Hans nimmermehr." (= What young Hans[chen] has never learnt, old Hans will not learn anymore. )

edit:
P.S. The treaty I referred to, was signed by a government under Konrad Adenauer CDU) in 1961, after such treaties were signed with Spain, Greece in the imminent years directly before. The German demnd for workers was immense at that time. The German history telling is uncomplete on it usually, for the importane of the conflict between Adenauer and Ludwig Erhard (SPD) gets usually ignored. Adenauer thought of the economy as a tool that had to obey foreign political paradigms, where as Erhard, only formally a SPD member but in fact a libertarian and economic realist (father of the so-called German Wirtschaftswunder), spoke against this view and poitned out that economic laws, like natural laws, could not be violated without damaging the economy sooner or later. Both men were at odds with each other, and since Erhard was a very untypical politicians not caring for party borders, he managed to collect the hositlity of all parties - despite the fundamental truth and success of his policies. Erhard was strictly against the Turks, saying that their culturla background and European culture would not match well. Adenauer wanted to obey the Ameican demands, to establish Germany better again oin the American poltical radar, since Germany at that tiem still was nothign more than juist a tiny, obdient vasall, which it remaiend to be for even more decades to come. And so the decision on the Turkish treaty was shifted from Erhard's ministry of ecnomy to the foreign ministry, which obeyed Adenauer.

After signing of the treaty with Turkey (and before that, Spain, Italy, Greece), more such treaties were signed with Tunesia, Southkorea, Yugoslavia, and Portugal.

And a correction: the so-called rotation principle, that demanded workers to leave again, said that the time they could stay was just 2 years (not 5 or 10 years as I qoted by memory above).

The final verdict on the guest worker strategy is controversial. While some say it made sure the industry in Germany of the 60s and 70s could grow, others point out that only heavy industrial structures were supported by this, while new technologies and new economic foci were hindered by it. Considering the immense negative heritage the massive Muslim migration has caused for Germany from then until today, I tend to see it mostly negative. The consequences of it, the price we pay for it, have become evident not before the early 90s. But since then they grew into something that now has run out of of control. The genie is out of the bottle - biggest mistake Europe made since 1933 and 1939.

[ikalugin]

http://www.zeit.de/politik/deutschland/2017-04/bundeswehr-bestand-ausruestung-panzer

[Nippelspanner]

http://www.zeit.de/politik/deutschland/2017-04/bundeswehr-bestand-ausruestung-panzer

Our forces are in a bad shape indeed - but I doubt the articles accuracy since it claims we have 4 class 212 submarines, when we have 6 since 2016. That's why I never rely on anything military coming from the 'regular' media.

Just the other day I read an article about "the Russian Akula class" which was about the (Nato) typhoon class - picturing a pr971 in the header. Ouch.
That's a good example why not to take the press serious when it's about anything military.

[Skybird]

According to German foreign minister Siegmar Gabriel (SPD), repairing the existing forces' hardware and maintaining their broken equipment, just that - not increasing its quantity - would be an irresponsible starting shot for a new round in an arms race that could provoke Russia.

Instead, according to BW Kindergardener von der Leyen and Gabriel, drilling waterholes in Africa and building schools in the orient shall be counted for the defence costs formula ("2% of the GDP"), with the hope being that Russia might feel deterred by these dangerous threats and start no military troubles, not just in africa and the orient, but in the baltic region as well, which, as everybody knows, borders directly to Africa and the orient.

And just days ago it was reported that over half of the vehicles and helicopters used by the BW in Mali - yes, Mali - are broken down due to the temperatures, and are immobilised. Isn't there a saying like: if you cant stand the heat stay out of the kitchen...?

[Skybird]

There is very strong Turkish nationalism in Germany. So-called radicals like Salafists have multiplied by severla factors, and have multiplied the number of their sympathisers. Islam is more untouchable for criticism than 10 years ago, public opinion is in open retreat over it - or faces strict demonizations as right-wing thinking, Nazi-thinking, racist thinking. Islam has boosted its stand and influence in public services and public society, and there are more mosques than before. Number of Muslim migrants has been growing already before the crisis of 2015. Politicians now discuss openly more extra ways and extra rules for Islam, leading as far as considering a special legislation just for Islam (no other religion got that). The problems with Muslim juveniles at schools have massively grown, parallel societies have grown as well, crime has grown as well, and the number of Arab and Turkish hate crimes against Jewish citizens and juveniles at schools have dramatically increased. There are more Shariah courts and police and state attorneys complain that thes ehave made police work and research over crimes and filed complaints fundamentally more complicated, often impossible. Its a second, parrallel justice system that Muslims turn to - and the state and its laws then are locked out. And we still allow that...

The majoriy of Muslims once again were found that they do not want to live side by side with Jews, and would not like to see marriages of their kids with infidels. Instead they press hard for having symbolism of so-called political Islam being established in government and public services, which most dominantly is tried with the head scarf, a fighting symbol for political Islam par exellence. The dust over this still has not settled. And when it eventually would settle, they will come up with something else in a bid to keep us on our toes, falling back.

The mess has grown. The denial of politicians and multiculti ideologists has grown as well. Have you seriously expected the trend to reverse...?

Not even mentioning the devastated relations with Erdoghanistan.

This all explaisn why AfD and Pegida have become stronger in recent years. Some Nazis in there, yes. But by far not all of them. You find a mix of all civil society in there.

Muslim apostates and critical Muslim migrants try still to warn us, but many of them in recent years have given up, some have left Germany in disbelief and dissapintment that Germany allows in what they once have fled from when leaving their original home countries.

We are Germans. We still hold our illusions strong and high. We know Islam better than Islam knows itself. Thats why we do not stop explaining it what it is - and what it should simply stop being.

Integration of Muslim colonists from North africa and the Middle East has failed. But not just in Germany, but in all of Europe where you have greater numbers of Muslim colonists. Britain. Sweden. Netherlands. France. Germany. Its not just a German but a European mess. A politically wanted and still boosted mess.

Migrants from Asia, North and South America, Europe, statistically seem to be not posing problems, not to my knowledge at least. If they are skilled and have something to offer that is needed in our countries, they are welcomed. Last year I read somewhere that many Jews have started to flee from Germany due to the Arabs pouring into Germany. I really regret that, with them goes plenty of wittiness and courage. We lose these in exchange for who predominantly will remain to be social wellfare net receivers. We have the statistics ont hsi for the past 60 years, haven't we. Their message is very clear.

Integration fails becasue those who have to integrate by mandatory duty, still refuse to do so my vast majority. Part of that majority turns noisy, but most are passively resisting integrating. The damage done by both, is the same.

Thats why I deliberately DO NOT MIND those 63% you mentioned. I only mind those who indeed are already apostates of Islam, no matter whether they realise that or still deny that.

After all it still is what many appeasers fanatically deny it is: a clash of civilizations and totally different values and views on society and individual. You cannot have compromise between totalitrianism and racism on the one side (and that is what Islam is about), and liberty and humanism on the other side. You cannot have a compromise regarding poisoned food, if the poison is lethal in even smallest quantities. Any such compromise results in you eating lethally poisoned food. Accepting that qualifies you for the Darwin Award, and I applaude and congratulate every happy winner.

[ValoWay]

Things are either against the law or they are not. Religious believe doesn't justify physical violence or psychological abuse against any citizen here in the western world. Just like we have to teach children what they can and cannot do we have to be apparently bold enough nowadays to teach immigrants how far they can go with their religion and their way of life. If Merkel and cohorts refuse or fail to do so then I suggest to show her the door this september so that she can work full time as an 'advisor' somewhere for her lobby friends..

One side note, though, when you talk about turkish immigrants, just like how trump talked about mexicans, please keep in mind that they're all individuals, too. It kinda comes across paranoid sometimes to me when ppl like trump talk about immigrants from that very remote prespective where all immigrants secretly plan evil schemes against the state.. They are not doctor evil, you know..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cKKHSAE1gIs

[Skybird]

German-Israeli relations since long are no longer what they have been, or are claimed to be.

http://www.dw.com/en/netanyahu-snubs-germanys-sigmar-gabriel-over-ngos/a-38438090

http://www.dw.com/en/netanyahu-accuses-german-foreign-minister-gabriel-of-tactlessness/a-38619398

http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/german-israeli-relations-take-turn-for-the-worse-a-1145297.html

What Gabriel did, was a planned provocation, no doubt. It compares to a foreign politician visiting Germany, but before meeting the federal president or chancellor or cabinet, meeting - with press - survivors of the Red Army Faction, or some Reichbürger denying the relevance of the German state. If this would be done, it would naturally be taken as an intentional offence and woulkd asue a diplomatic row. But when Gabriel meets organisations that attack the very basis of Israel's existence and defame Israeli soldiers in general - he demands the Israelis to sit still?

Like that psychoanalyst said: the Germans will never forgive the Jews Auschwitz. And if modern Jews do not listen to German moral lecturing based the grounds of suicidal denial of reality, their guilt weighs even heavier and the German anger boils even hotter.

[ValoWay]

I think the jews should have gone to america after ww2 to settle somewhere in iowa or ohio like the amish. The thought of spearheading right into your archenemy's territory to start a freaking living sounds insane to me.. Like having a family picnic right inside a serpentarium.. Both sides are obviously unreasonable and because of news like that which always play the same old song for decades now I would really rather see those which started the mess fixing it than us being involved.. I don't like that I am constantly reminded by such news that I am supposed to have an opinion about it even when it obviously was a bad idea right from the start.. Go deal with it yourself, whoever came up with it..

Am I crazy, a nazi or simply stupid for thinking that? I really don't know..

[Skybird]

Just that they make - religiously founded - claim for that piece of land since 3000 years, plus minus a bit maybe. Like the others that are up against them, and they are up against. Crazy? Maybe, strategically I think Israel is in a most exposed position. But tell that a historically grown, 3 millenia old identity. Some things are non-negotiable to "identity" - else it is not this identity. In the end, Israel is the most advanced society model in that chaotic region of the world, and beside Jordan and sometimes Egypt the only reason-driven actor there. Look around there - any other corner down there is a mess, or a cave, and often both.

[Catfish]

Their identity is their religion, has always been until 1947. There was the Kingdom of Judah bordering to the Kingdom of Israel, some jews in Persia, err "Iran" lol. The city states inhabited by "jews" thousands of years ago were surrounded by lots of other city states inhabited by all other kinds of tribes and religions and opinions why to slaughter their neighbour, all battling and scrapping against each other, and then Rome against all. It was not "their" land. They have the same right to settle there as anyone else.
It is a very dumb notion to claim "your" country and "blood" only because you are born a mile east or west of a border, river, or channel, or in another country's city state some thousand years ago. Genetics will tell you.

I can perfectly understand the jews' urge and the necessity to finally have an own nation of "Israel", so all jews can live there without being harrassed or chased in foreign lands. But give the same right to those who have lived there for millenia, too. I do not see a two-state solution coming, instead all went haywire with the assassination of Rabin just of all by a right-wing israeli, followed just of all by a right-wing government trying to justify illegal settling in regions not exactly belonging to Israel. So you say Germany should be quiet about all this because "the past"? Wasn't it you just saying "we are too servile"? Depends, eh?

Germany will support Israel without question, and imho rightly so, but do not mistake them for angels. Maybe reading "The little drummer girl" would be in order, to understand both sides.

[Skybird]

There were state elections in Schleswig-Holstein today. The Merkel Party defeated the red socialists, but the biggest group again where the non-voters (34%). The complete result that relatives the official numbers against the electorate:

https://www2.pic-upload.de/img/33132480/Unbenannt.jpg (https://www.pic-upload.de)

The messiah of the red socialists Martin Schultz since quite some time now has lost support and momentum, and of the initial enthusiasm after he declared that he runs for the job of chancelor, nothing is left. As things currently look, Merkel will run another four years.

After elections in the Saarland, this is the sxecond fo three tests before the national elections that the red socialists have lost wqith flying colkours. Last come elections in Northrhine-Westphalia, with the ruling red government there showing a ruinous record and loiusy reputation, but it is the federal state with the biggest population and many left voters (low working class, migrants, Turks).

[Skybird]

After ErdoghanS staged coup against himself, between 400 and 500 Turkish soldiers fled to Germany and asked for asylum, coming from Turkey and NATO garrisons and posts in europe, mainly Brussel headquarters, where they were stationed. Also some Turkish diplomats asked in Germany for asylum. They first such permissions have just been granted. If the people in question comply with local culture, behavior and rules, I'm okay with that. However, I am certain the great Sultan is not okay with it. :D Knowing that the Turkish intel service hunts down critics and unwanted minds even in Germany, with a nnetwork of around 5000 active agents and spies, plus the official long arms of the Turkish state in Germany - DITIB and the Turkish state-sent Imams - the refugees could get asylum in Germany, and still be in danger. The Turkish secret service is described to be more active in Germany than the Stasi every was active in the FRG of the cold war.

[Jimbuna]

^then the answer may be simpler than the remedy but root them out and deport them.

[Nippelspanner]

^then the answer may be simpler than the remedy but root them out and deport them.
Haha, do you know what would happen over here if a German politician would use the word "deportation"? :haha:
The only thing worse would be if he'd argue there should be a thorough selection before deportation.
I guess Claudia Roth would drop dead just by hearing that.

Well, one can hope...

[Nippelspanner]

Would that be a loss?
As I said:
Well, one can hope...

Edit: Of course, I do not hope she dies for real. There are worse people roaming this planet, and while her politics are flat our retarded (and dangerous as well), I don't want to sound like a fascist, trying to end life I do not consider worth living. We had that here before. Not again, please.

[Jimbuna]

Haha, do you know what would happen over here if a German politician would use the word "deportation"? :haha:
The only thing worse would be if he'd argue there should be a thorough selection before deportation.
I guess Claudia Roth would drop dead just by hearing that.

Well, one can hope...

Well, at the very least, make use of and utilise the Brit intelligence services before we leave the EU :):03:

[Nippelspanner]

What, no?

[Skybird]

The trap here is that it is en vogue to imply that one single human life always, under all conditions, is more worth in value than just anything else. And if anything means the economical structure of a whole state, or the rules and the philospphical fundaments of living in a society, or the sale-out or not-sale-out of national "just material" core interests, then this kind of absolute argument becomes dangerous and extrenely damaging.

Lers put it this way then: I would not shed a single tear if Rith gets rolled over by a truck. I even would regret that it has not happened twenty years earlier, for her ideological indoctrination of the masses and the preaching of hers have formed many minds and led to damaging, very damaging consequences for this country. She still preaches that we should even do more of that. The intellectual infantlization that you see in Germany, has not just fallen down from the sky - it has been, and so there are people who made it. Thus, thes epeople who made it, obviously are a big threat even when not lining their opponents up against a wall. You can destroy a country and ruin the fundaments of your wealth and freedom even without establishing concentration camps and firing squads. You just have to ruin the capability of the young to think, and you have to control education. That does much more lasting damage, for this is an evil that is so much more difficult to be named and pointing fingers at.

[Skybird]

Understanding the Merkel. An American analysis.

http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/05/09/the-forever-chancellor-angela-merkel-germany/

As usual with such pieces, it most ikely gives too sober a descritpion of the truth - in this case Merkel'S poltical calculation -, but intentional or by random chance: her political acting indeed is reflected a bit by what the author describes here. Personally I think he underestmates the infuence of plitical messiah-syndrome which in case of Merkel and many other Germna polticians fundamentally bases on the socialization experiences in the DDR and the FdJ, and results in generla attitude of "us the knowing, planning party" and "them the led, obedient collective". In other words: feudalist elitism.


What’s strange about Merkel’s record of electoral success is how consistently she has confirmed the adage that policy failures are an unavoidable part of politics, while avoiding its corollary: that erosions of public support are inevitable, too. The mystery, however, lies less with Merkel than the German public — or, rather, with Merkel’s assessment of what the public wants and expects from politics. That assessment speaks well of Merkel’s intuition. It speaks less well of Germany’s political maturity.


I currently read Jason Brennan's "Against Democracy" (British link (https://www.amazon.co.uk/Against-Democracy-Jason-Brennan/dp/0691162603/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1494670410&sr=8-1&keywords=jason+brennan), German link) (https://www.amazon.de/Gegen-Demokratie-Politik-Unvern%C3%BCnftigen-%C3%BCberlassen/dp/3550081561/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1494670294&sr=8-1&keywords=jason+brennan). Its fair to say that he shredders the many illusions and deceptive hopes people have about it. Merkel'S success in staying in power (she is not really successful on matters) illustrates how misled our beloved illusions about democracy and elections indeed are. Which is true for any leading political caste in any Western country, it seems.

On a side note, compared to the almost hysteric enthusiasm the SPF displayed over the so-called Schultz-effect, surprisingly little of that effect is still alive. Schultz since weeks is in a nose dive - in the precise vertical.

[Skybird]

Today was the third and last state election before national elections in September. Martin Schultz' SPD scored its third of three crushing defeats, the hype about his chancelor candidation is ultimately over.

The coalition government of SPD and Greens is a thing of the past. Northrhine-Westphalia is the federal state with the biggest population of all 16 states in Germany, almost every fifth German lives here. It's also SPD heartland. The region is the industrial powerhouse of Germany, but this cannot deceive over the fact that 8 years of SPD-Green coaltion have ruined the finances, saw the devbts ecploding over socialist pet polcies,a nd educaiton and schools eroding dramatically. The interior minisiter and his both incompetent and egoist handling of police management also played a role, the night of NYE in Cologne has not been forgotten, nor forgiven, but this man, Jäger his name, already scored negative headlines before that, and again after that, and repeatedly. All-forgiving migration policies of this state allowed Islamic terrorist Nasri to carry out his terror attack in Berlin at christmas.

CDU gains, SPD heavy losses and worst result in this state ever, Greens halved, AfD in, SED-left out.

The so-called "honest" final standing, standardizing the election results against the total electorate. Biggest group again are the non-voters ("Nichtwähler"), almost 35% did not care or refused to give legitimization. https://www2.pic-upload.de/img/33171135/wahl.jpg (https://www.pic-upload.de)
It is hard to imagine that Merkel does not win in September. Schultz trails behind 0:3.

[ValoWay]

germans are hilarious.. They keep complaining about merkel's politics day in, day out and the next morning they go voting for CDU :doh: Things never change, huh? :har:

[Nippelspanner]

germans are hilarious.. They keep complaining about merkel's politics day in, day out and the next morning they go voting for CDU :doh: Things never change, huh? :har:
Did 'Germans' (apparantly a species that complained as a collective about Merkel?) do have a real alternative to her?
Not at the moment.

Schulz is a joke, who can only play one card: 'Volksnähe', while the others aren't even worth mentioning, of course.

So yes, Merkel it is, I'm afraid.

[ValoWay]

Most CDU voters are pensioners which could be called the 'silent majority' I guess.. They sit all day long in front of their TVs rather than being vocal in public, so who really knows why they vote for CDU regardless even when the refugee crisis was the big topic of the NRW election and even when Merkel+CDU were responsible for it.. Hail Kohl all over again, cause there's no reasoning possible when the majority of voters are hooked up on medication :yawn:

[Nippelspanner]

Most CDU voters are pensioners which could be called the 'silent majority' I guess.. They sit all day long in front of their TVs rather than being vocal in public, so who really knows why they vote for CDU regardless even when the refugee crisis was the big topic of the NRW election and even when Merkel+CDU were responsible for it.. Hail Kohl all over again, cause there's no reasoning possible when the majority of the voters are hooked up on medication :yawn:
[Citation needed]

[ValoWay]

[Citation needed]

https://www.tagesschau.de/multimedia/bilder/uvchart-axluhbflmoqa-101~_v-videowebl.jpg

42, rentner are retired persons.

source:https://www.tagesschau.de/newsticker/liveblog-113~_origin-009ae088-93a2-49a7-beb1-acdab95ff5bf.html#Welche-Berufsgruppe-waehlte-welche-Partei

[Nippelspanner]

Ugh, n one doubts most CDU voters are retired people.
Hoewever:

They sit all day long in front of their TVs rather than being vocal in public, so who really knows why they vote for CDU regardless even when the refugee crisis was the big topic of the NRW election and even when Merkel+CDU were responsible for it.. Hail Kohl all over again, cause there's no reasoning possible when the majority of voters are hooked up on medication :yawn:

Why insult these people?
Is a retired person automatically some old cracker on medication??

And again, those who did complain about Merkel, probably didn't vote her.
It's not as if all of Germany collectively complained that Merkel is a bad chancellor overall, or did I miss something?

[ValoWay]

Ugh, n one doubts most CDU voters are retired people.
Hoewever:



Why insult these people?
Is a retired person automatically some old cracker on medication??

And again, those who did complain about Merkel, probably didn't vote her.
It's not as if all of Germany collectively complained that Merkel is a bad chancellor overall, or did I miss something?

Well, if you continuously vote for the same old bavarian overlord (Kohl, now Merkel) and at the same keep complaining about them on public television/media then there must be something wrong somewhere.. I mean, it is entirely possible that those old folks aka the majority sit in front of their TVs and think that the news reporters criticizing merkel are full of 'hearts'.. If CDU was so awesome why make a big deal out of their mistakes when you know that the majority of people will disagree? Maybe CDU fanboys should send more angry letters to TV stations or start a breitbart-esque news network in order to get their point across, I don't really know..

[Skybird]

Over 50% - growing - of the total nation-wide electorate in Germany is at the age 50+.

Young people planning their own future, family, children, should get the creeps when knowing this. It means parties will design their voter bribery and spending frenzies before elections according to the most vital voter group: the elder. The old can overvote the young into the ground. The young have to paypaypay, and then have to paypaypaypay and paypaypay.

Germans already are the second-most taxed population in the world. Only the Belgians get blackmailed for even more protection money by their state syndicate.

[Jimbuna]

.

Germans already are the second-most taxed population in the world. Only the Belgians get blackmailed for even more protection money by their state syndicate.

Not saying I agree or otherwise but the links below don't even put Germany in the top ten for income tax per capita income.

Of course, it is possible the information is distorted and incorrect.

http://www.worldatlas.com/articles/countries-with-the-highest-taxes-in-the-world.html

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/business/top-10-highest-tax-paying-countries-in-2015/articleshow/48216892.cms

[Nippelspanner]

Well, if you continuously vote for the same old bavarian overlord (Kohl, now Merkel) and at the same keep complaining about them on public television/media then there must be something wrong somewhere..
Again, who are these people voting yet complaining like you say?
Where do you get this from? Any numbers/facts?
You're continuously making some questionable claims, but what's your point?

Also, neither Kohl nor Merkel are from Bavaria, and the CDU is no Bavarian party as well - that's the CSU.

[Skybird]

Not saying I agree or otherwise but the links below don't even put Germany in the top ten for income tax per capita income.

Of course, it is possible the information is distorted and incorrect.

http://www.worldatlas.com/articles/countries-with-the-highest-taxes-in-the-world.html

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/business/top-10-highest-tax-paying-countries-in-2015/articleshow/48216892.cms

It made the news in Germany last month. According to the OECD's own study "Taxing Wages 2017", the Belgians pay 54%, Germans 49% of their income for taxes and mandatory social transfers.

Source: http://www.oecd.org/ctp/tax-policy/taxing-wages-2017-brochure.pdf

[Skybird]

Are you ready for the red pill?

http://ef-magazin.de/2017/05/19/11027-das-wesen-des-staates-sind-sie-bereit-fuer-die-rote-pille

THIS IS IN GERMAN.

Sorry, it ius too long as if I wojuod care to translate it, but the essay is spot on, focussing on the parallels between that fmaous scene from Matrix, and our contemporrary sociological and political present and "reality". It gave me some grim satisfaciton to read this, like I sometimes feel when reading somehtign by someone on a rare circumstance that confirms, or agrees with the way I meet this criminal regime of opurs that so many people until today consider to be a good thing, an incarnation of freeom and liberty. It isn't. We are all slaves - and most of us are so much in tranbce that we fight with detemrination against everybody telling us what liberty really is.


"Wie kann der Staat mehr Rechte haben als die Summe seiner Bürger?"
(...)
der aggressive Staat ist nicht das letzte Kapitel der Menschheit, auch wenn er zur Zeit einen Höhepunkt erleben mag. Aber Höhepunkte sind immer auch Wendepunkte. Und so lassen Sie mich mit einem Zitat von Ludwig von Mises schließen: „aller Fortschritt der Menschheit hat sich gegen den Staat und seine Zwangsgewalt durchsetzen müssen.“ Warum sollte es da gerade unserer Generation anders gehen?
From own experience I must confirm that questioning the state of things, the okay-ness of the current order, will not make you any new friends, but will cost you your old ones, and most likely you will make yourself many new enemies. But once you swallowed the red pill, there is no way leading you back, never. The truth will set you free, it will make you more independent in thought, and stronger in will, yes. But it will not make your life simplier, but more difficult, and it will test your endurance, from now on until you die, for this world, this system will die neither easy, nor fast. If that scares you, take the blue pill instead and continue to dream what they want you to dream. While dreaming, you at least will not realise that you are just a slave - who dreams to be a free, sovereign man.

[ValoWay]

Isn't that bascially what they call in the US libertarianism (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Libertarianism)?

[Skybird]

http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/05/22/germany-is-quietly-building-a-european-army-under-its-command/

There troops using our euqipment, says the article? Well, fine, but does not solve the problem of that the equipment pools of the Bundeswehr are hopelessly undersupplied.

I also question the widsom of now trying to raise a second military framework beside NATO. It is said NATO should beocme better supported, means the Germans should spend more for repairing their deficits and equipment lacks. And that NATO should become more independent from the US. Which cna only be acchieved by strenthening European legs in NATO. But when nations like Germany are being unwilling to invest the needed money, why to assume then that this money will all pof a sudden be avialable to turn an idea by theorists into a combat-strong reality?

I live in Münster, which is the central base for the logistics of the German-Dutch corps. And I knew what some of the soldiers here say about that corps. They called it a paper tiger, under-funded and undersupported. A detemrined Russian effort it would not be capable to resist. It some years now that I was told this. But i doubt that much has changed since then. Why should it have?

The shiny new world - for Germany it works perfect. On paper.

More payment for soldiers to make the job more attractive. Turkey out of NATO. More money in to repair the broken down and to replace the missing hardware. An end to pointless oversea missions that erode resources and finances for no substantial gains. All this within the framework of NATO. We do not need a second money-eating military framework beside it. For what?

This is about symbology as much as the damn Euro was. Another toy the eurocrats want to boast with, despite the obvious deficits. And no, it will not solve the basic problem. The Bundeswehr wanted to hide the fatc that it had to little working equioment by intriucing clever onceptions and shiny terminology for having the equipment being rotated between units. This of course did not chnage the fact that there was too little working equipm,ent, and still is. Now they want to hide the perosnell deficits by rotating th eperosnell between the equipment pools, so to speak.which again means that the personell deficits of the Bundeswehr will not be cured for real.

Its all self-deception. In the end you still have to little ammuntiion, to fewtanks, too few interceptors, too few helcipters, too few missile stockpiles, too few NVG, too few whatever, and still too few German soldiers who udnerstand that a soldier is no self-protective development worker, but a warrior.

And only the klatter will serve as a miliutary deterrance aainst foeign military aggressors, namely Russia in the Baltic. Not bilding schools in Afghanistan. Drilling waterholes in africa. Repairing bridges in some third world center of the world events. An army that alcks the warrior's spirit and the eqipment an dperosnnel pool that can endure longer times of conflict and higher losses, will lose the next war. Such an army will never serve as a deterrance, because it is not potent enough for that .

[ikalugin]

While I agree that Bundeswehr really should get into the shape as otherwise it is embaracing to watch, I cannot agree with this:
namely Russia in the Baltic.as it both misrepresents our interests and policies and would lead to escalation of tensions in the region (should Bundeswehr deploy there in strength) through escalationary spiral where both sides historically have shown real restraint on military-technical level.

[Skybird]

NATO has good reasons to differ with you. The West would be stupid, after the Russian exmaples of the past years, to simply trust in statements from the Kremlin. Trust is kind. Control is better. While Russia will keep the Crimean peninsula, and most liekly the Eastern Ukraine will separate form the ukraine as well, these achievements for Rus sia come at the cost of that they serve as a wakeup call. Russia hs shown that it doe snot just balk, but alos bite - and coming from the rear. We would be naive to ignore that. That the Baltic people have bad memories of Russian occupation and thus are especially sceptic, is explained by history. Them to would be naive to ignore it.

[ikalugin]

That the Baltic people have bad memories of Russian occupation and thus are especially sceptic, is explained by history. Them to would be naive to ignore it. To be honest I think that they are trying to monetise fearmongering because they would be viewed as irrelevant depopulated states that they are.

p.s. are you typing from a new device?

[Skybird]

Majority of Germans do not want to honor supportive and assistance duties in NATO in case that the Baltic states and Eastern European contnries would get attacked by Russia.

https://euobserver.com/foreign/138000

Bastard nation. Its a disgrace.

And illustrates what this nonsense talking about a German-led Euro army is worth: its nice for having parades and posing at summits and making big words in interviews. And thats it.

[Jimbuna]

Yes that is quite worrying Sky :hmmm:

[ikalugin]

Sometimes I feel that there is a conspiracy to make Russia to annex the poor baltics.

[Nippelspanner]

Ugh.
Can someone explain to me what my government is doing regarding Turkey at the moment? "Ähh, IF you will not let us visit our troops, then we will pull out the Bundeswehr from Incirlik, yes, we will!! For sure this time!"
It's just so embarrassing...

What is so special about Turkey that they can do whatever they want?
Another joke are the "Beitrittsverhandlungen" going on for years, instead of realizing years ago that
a) The Sultan doesn't want to join and
b) constantly lowering the standards is a severe sign of weakness and political stupidity.

God, even Trump could handle this more capable. Jesus I just said that...

[ikalugin]

Germany may benefit from acting consistently as a great power.

[em2nought]

Man, we've really messed you Germans up. You sure could use another Frederick the Great instead of Steve Urkel, I mean Merkel.
http://cdn.hark.com/images/000/001/560/1560/original.jpg
https://shariaunveiled.files.wordpress.com/2016/01/germany-muslim-rapefugees-1-resized.jpg?w=627