Alternate History.

Admiral Halsey · 01-02-14, 03:22 PM

I don't know if Subsim ever had an alternate history thread so I figured i'd make one.(I also don't know where it would go so I figured i'd put it here and if it's in the wrong part of the forums someone would move it for me.) So here's the first alternate history scenario. What if the Kiel mutiny never happened and the Naval order of 24 October 1918 was carried out. Could the Germans have pulled it off or would the fleet have been wiped out?

Dread Knot · 01-02-14, 03:36 PM

Well, assuming that the crews of the High Seas Fleet are still in a mutinous mood even if the ships get under way, I think you are looking at a certain defeat just from a morale view point.

Oberon · 01-02-14, 04:07 PM

Aaah, Alternate history, a favourite of mine, might I recommend http://www.alternatehistory.com which has some nice little timelines written on there.

So, POD is the Naval Mutiny...let's see...well, providing that all ships decide to follow the order, and not all of them might, it's going to be a fairly bad time for the German fleet. The British Grand Fleet was in a better state than at Jutland, it had identified most of the problems that afflicted it during that battle and had worked to neutralise them. It had new weaponry available to it, including ship bourne torpedo aircraft and the K-class submarine which, providing they didn't break down or sink themselves, were faster than any other submarine at the time. Morale in the Kaiserliche Marine wasn't particularly high, as the mutiny would prove, but the Grand Fleet was brimming with expectation for a rematch to right the wrongs that took place at Jutland. I may not like Beatty much (I'm a Jellicoe man) but he could certainly work up morale.
Of course there are many variables to consider, but the High Seas Fleet would have been severely outnumbered by the combined forces of the Grand Fleet and Harwich Force and in the largest naval battle the world had ever seen, it would have been savagely beaten until it was either forced to withdraw, or had been annihilated.

Admiral Halsey · 01-02-14, 04:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Oberon

the K-class submarine which, providing they didn't break down or sink themselves, were faster than any other submarine at the time..

Oh god not the Kalamity K's. Considering the luck those things had they would have sunk the ship carrying Beatty and half of the rest of the British fleet. For more fun about the K's I suggest reading about the "Battle of May Island".

Raptor1 · 01-02-14, 04:53 PM

They would not have pulled off anything. Even assuming the High Seas Fleet could tactically defeat the Grand Fleet (a dubious proposition, as Oberon points out), it would have achieved nothing in strategic terms. Germany's ground forces were very much in the process of being driven back by the Allies on the Western Front, Bulgaria had already been knocked out of the war the previous month and the Ottoman Empire was in the process of surrendering, with Austria-Hungary's disintegration following soon afterwards. All those factors combined with the long-lasting effects of the blockade on Germany, war weariness and so forth means that the outcome of the naval battle could do little to effect Germany's situation except maybe provide some manner of general morale boost.

Probably the only real effect this would have would be slightly delaying Germany's surrender by the sole fact that this event would not have provided the immediate trigger for revolution in the German Empire. So Germany's surrender might have come a few days later, perhaps under different internal conditions. But as far as the actual battle is concerned, I'm pretty sure it would have resulted in an outright defeat for the Germans and would not have provided any strategic advantage to them in any case.

Jimbuna · 01-02-14, 04:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Admiral Halsey

I don't know if Subsim ever had an alternate history thread so I figured i'd make one.(I also don't know where it would go so I figured i'd put it here and if it's in the wrong part of the forums someone would move it for me.) So here's the first alternate history scenario. What if the Kiel mutiny never happened and the Naval order of 24 October 1918 was carried out. Could the Germans have pulled it off or would the fleet have been wiped out?

Put simply....RULE BRITANNIA

Admiral Halsey · 01-02-14, 07:59 PM

Interesting points guys and some good analysis. I'm hoping to avoid the standard alternate history scenarios and post lesser known points of divergence for you guys to ponder over.(Though tomorrow's will be one involving the US civil war it isn't a "Lee wins Gettysburg" one) Oh and thanks for the link to the site Oberon.

Admiral Halsey · 01-03-14, 12:17 AM

Well it's after midnight where I live so as I promised my next scenario for you guys to have fun with. The year is 1864 and the month is October. The South is less then six months from loosing the war. Meanwhile in Mexico the French are still trying to help Maximilian establish a Mexican monarchy. In this scenario the French navy and Union navy have a skirmish that makes Napoleon III declare war on the Union. What effect would this have on the civil war and who ultimately wins? Remember to consider the year and month I have stated this scenario takes place in.

Aktungbby · 01-03-14, 01:42 AM

Absolutely no effect; Faragut is ordered to extend the blockade to the Mexican ports, cutting off the French troopships and preventing refueling. Martinique, Guadeloupe, French Guiana and two French islands off Newfoundland are taken. The beast Butler, in command of New Orleans, raises new regiments of freed and mulatto blacks which the South, by this point in the war, had considered also. Lee and Grant, with Jeff Davis's blessing, agree to a temporary cessation of hostilities to coordinate in their ol' stompin' grounds of the Mexican War. Lee even separates Longstreet's corps, as at Chickamauga, to assist as old West Point comrades Generals Thomas and Sherman turn west without prompting, as surely as Patton at the Bulge. Stand Watie and his Cherokee Nation and vast numbers of paroled Confederate 'galvanized Yankees' eager to escape the POW camps along the frigid Great Lakes, who served or had forebears in the Mexican War, leap to the colours to repel the damn-froggies and their few enthusiastic Mexican allies, chafing under foreign domination. Throw in the feared Texas Rangers, always prepared for any Mexican related contingency- the Foreign Legion-and a few deals with the cutthroat Comancheros, the ghastly Comanche and Apaches, given license to rape, steal and plunder at will... ol Boney Tres, shocked at the Franco-phobia, will hafta' go away. FINIS! Lincoln had actually considered invading Canada a the beginning of his term to unite the entire country against a common foe; this is just a westerly variation...three years later. Hopefully, having united against a common foreign threat, cooler heads, Lee's in particular, as Generalissimo of the South, could prevail before a resumption of domestic hostilities.

Admiral Halsey · 01-03-14, 10:37 AM

I remember reading somewhere about Lincoln's plan for invading Canada. Considering how early it was in the war I doubt we could have actually won if he had done so.(Grant and Sherman were complete unknowns at at that point.)

Catfish · 01-03-14, 12:44 PM

Regarding alternate history, I am just reading 'Fatherland' from Harris, heard about it long ago but never cared.
Now i got it accidentally from a friend, who had it from a library being given up.
Pretty strange to read this, but Harris seems to know his stuff from the 4-meter-gauge railroads to party internals.

This is about a fictional Germany that was not defeated during WW2 (indeed there was no WW, since England did not declare war, and France, Scandinavia, Greece, North Africa was never part of any war action, the USA being happy someone fights the communists).
Poland has been invaded, and it with parts of Russia now belong to Germany, up to the 'Moscow line'. The war against partisans and Russia is still on, in 1964.

What strikes me is how familiar some things look, when it comes to surveillance. The book is displaying the what-if in 1964

:

- Wars have always been fought for freedom

- uniforms everywhere, the military is considered as the most important thing and being admired as the best of the best, parades and commemoration days. Everyone liking real freedom and despising the good necessary wars is being looked down upon, or worse.

- people are kept under constant strain by reported and made-up terrorist attacks, and the wars being fought against rogue or villain nations allegedly supporting those terrorists. All who dare to not like the Fatherland are partisans and terrorists, the rest living in rogue states

- Security levels due to terrorist attacks in green/blue/black/red, the Security police (SiPo) running most of the surveillance in a central block, gathering information of all people via hearsay and electronic means of all kinds - certainly only few cameras and no computers to speak of in 1964

- Drones (if primitive) used for surveillance, and microphones placed everywhere (little did they know it would be even easier, with the internet)

- Angst and suspicion towards illegal aliens from the world over, acting as scapegoats for unemployment and criminal activity, thus masquerading the good old Fremdenhass, at the same time promoting this feeling by the major media

- Public requests everywhere like 'Be vigilant at all times', 'Terrorists are everywhere', 'Attention, report suspicious packages at once!, 'Terrorist alert!'

- People reading certain books and talking about it publicly (criticizing the "free" republic and surveillance) are suspicious, their dossiers being kept for later inspection.

Have not finished it yet, i wonder what drove him to write this though in 1992.

Admiral Halsey · 01-03-14, 01:08 PM

I've read that one before. One of the better alternate history books IMO.

Tchocky · 01-03-14, 01:42 PM

This thread makes me want to dig out my old Harry Turtledove novels

Admiral Halsey · 01-03-14, 01:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tchocky

This thread makes me want to dig out my old Harry Turtledove novels

I haven't read any of his yet. I can't decide between his Worldwar series or the Southern Victory series. Oh and tomorrow i'll let you guys know what I think would happen with the previous days questions.

mapuc · 01-03-14, 02:17 PM

In September 2013 USA started to bomb military installation in Syria.

After about to hours of bombing a clash between two American military vessel and a Russian vessel occurred. one of the American FFG and the Russian DG was sunked the second American vessel had to withdraw due to damage(I can't remember what trigger the incident, that came to this clash)

During this 2 weeks bombing a few clashes between USA and Russia occurred

Now we are in October and the diplomat are working day and night to prevent the situation in middle east to escalate further as it already has.

A back side of US bombing of Syria is that Lebanon, Jordan are now involved and daily Israel is being bombed from Lebanon, Syria and Jordan.

Every one is just waiting that Israel is going alle in and what's going to happen when that happens

CNN, FOX News and BBC World and other news channel, is sending 24/7 about this crisis

The Churches that's normally empty is now filled all the time

Ohh forgot one of the Cruise missile missed it's target and hit a Russian area(many say that the Russian placed the stuff there in porpoise

I can't remember everything from that time- I don't know if there's a world war going on or if there's peace now.

Markus

01-02-14, 03:22 PM	#1
Admiral Halsey Best Admiral in the USN Join Date: Apr 2013 Location: USS Enterprise (CV-6) Posts: 1,740 Downloads: 317 Uploads: 0	Alternate History. I don't know if Subsim ever had an alternate history thread so I figured i'd make one.(I also don't know where it would go so I figured i'd put it here and if it's in the wrong part of the forums someone would move it for me.) So here's the first alternate history scenario. What if the Kiel mutiny never happened and the Naval order of 24 October 1918 was carried out. Could the Germans have pulled it off or would the fleet have been wiped out?

01-02-14, 04:53 PM	#5
Raptor1 Navy Seal Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: Stavka Posts: 8,211 Downloads: 13 Uploads: 0	They would not have pulled off anything. Even assuming the High Seas Fleet could tactically defeat the Grand Fleet (a dubious proposition, as Oberon points out), it would have achieved nothing in strategic terms. Germany's ground forces were very much in the process of being driven back by the Allies on the Western Front, Bulgaria had already been knocked out of the war the previous month and the Ottoman Empire was in the process of surrendering, with Austria-Hungary's disintegration following soon afterwards. All those factors combined with the long-lasting effects of the blockade on Germany, war weariness and so forth means that the outcome of the naval battle could do little to effect Germany's situation except maybe provide some manner of general morale boost. Probably the only real effect this would have would be slightly delaying Germany's surrender by the sole fact that this event would not have provided the immediate trigger for revolution in the German Empire. So Germany's surrender might have come a few days later, perhaps under different internal conditions. But as far as the actual battle is concerned, I'm pretty sure it would have resulted in an outright defeat for the Germans and would not have provided any strategic advantage to them in any case. __________________ Current Eastern Front status: Probable Victory

01-03-14, 01:42 AM	#9
Aktungbby Gefallen Engel U-666 Join Date: Jul 2013 Location: On a tilted, overheated, overpopulated spinning mudball on Collision course with Andromeda Galaxy Posts: 30,014 Downloads: 24 Uploads: 0	Absolutely no effect; Faragut is ordered to extend the blockade to the Mexican ports, cutting off the French troopships and preventing refueling. Martinique, Guadeloupe, French Guiana and two French islands off Newfoundland are taken. The beast Butler, in command of New Orleans, raises new regiments of freed and mulatto blacks which the South, by this point in the war, had considered also. Lee and Grant, with Jeff Davis's blessing, agree to a temporary cessation of hostilities to coordinate in their ol' stompin' grounds of the Mexican War. Lee even separates Longstreet's corps, as at Chickamauga, to assist as old West Point comrades Generals Thomas and Sherman turn west without prompting, as surely as Patton at the Bulge. Stand Watie and his Cherokee Nation and vast numbers of paroled Confederate 'galvanized Yankees' eager to escape the POW camps along the frigid Great Lakes, who served or had forebears in the Mexican War, leap to the colours to repel the damn-froggies and their few enthusiastic Mexican allies, chafing under foreign domination. Throw in the feared Texas Rangers, always prepared for any Mexican related contingency- the Foreign Legion-and a few deals with the cutthroat Comancheros, the ghastly Comanche and Apaches, given license to rape, steal and plunder at will... ol Boney Tres, shocked at the Franco-phobia, will hafta' go away. FINIS! Lincoln had actually considered invading Canada a the beginning of his term to unite the entire country against a common foe; this is just a westerly variation...three years later. Hopefully, having united against a common foreign threat, cooler heads, Lee's in particular, as Generalissimo of the South, could prevail before a resumption of domestic hostilities. __________________ "Only two things are infinite; The Universe and human squirrelyness?!!

01-03-14, 01:42 PM	#13
Tchocky Navy Seal Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 5,874 Downloads: 6 Uploads: 0	This thread makes me want to dig out my old Harry Turtledove novels __________________ [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]

01-02-14, 03:36 PM	#2
Dread Knot Ace of the Deep Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 1,288 Downloads: 85 Uploads: 0	Well, assuming that the crews of the High Seas Fleet are still in a mutinous mood even if the ships get under way, I think you are looking at a certain defeat just from a morale view point.

01-02-14, 04:07 PM	#3
Oberon Lucky Jack Join Date: Jul 2002 Posts: 25,976 Downloads: 61 Uploads: 20	Aaah, Alternate history, a favourite of mine, might I recommend http://www.alternatehistory.com which has some nice little timelines written on there. So, POD is the Naval Mutiny...let's see...well, providing that all ships decide to follow the order, and not all of them might, it's going to be a fairly bad time for the German fleet. The British Grand Fleet was in a better state than at Jutland, it had identified most of the problems that afflicted it during that battle and had worked to neutralise them. It had new weaponry available to it, including ship bourne torpedo aircraft and the K-class submarine which, providing they didn't break down or sink themselves, were faster than any other submarine at the time. Morale in the Kaiserliche Marine wasn't particularly high, as the mutiny would prove, but the Grand Fleet was brimming with expectation for a rematch to right the wrongs that took place at Jutland. I may not like Beatty much (I'm a Jellicoe man) but he could certainly work up morale. Of course there are many variables to consider, but the High Seas Fleet would have been severely outnumbered by the combined forces of the Grand Fleet and Harwich Force and in the largest naval battle the world had ever seen, it would have been savagely beaten until it was either forced to withdraw, or had been annihilated.

01-02-14, 07:59 PM	#7
Admiral Halsey Best Admiral in the USN Join Date: Apr 2013 Location: USS Enterprise (CV-6) Posts: 1,740 Downloads: 317 Uploads: 0	Interesting points guys and some good analysis. I'm hoping to avoid the standard alternate history scenarios and post lesser known points of divergence for you guys to ponder over.(Though tomorrow's will be one involving the US civil war it isn't a "Lee wins Gettysburg" one) Oh and thanks for the link to the site Oberon.

01-03-14, 12:17 AM	#8
Admiral Halsey Best Admiral in the USN Join Date: Apr 2013 Location: USS Enterprise (CV-6) Posts: 1,740 Downloads: 317 Uploads: 0	Well it's after midnight where I live so as I promised my next scenario for you guys to have fun with. The year is 1864 and the month is October. The South is less then six months from loosing the war. Meanwhile in Mexico the French are still trying to help Maximilian establish a Mexican monarchy. In this scenario the French navy and Union navy have a skirmish that makes Napoleon III declare war on the Union. What effect would this have on the civil war and who ultimately wins? Remember to consider the year and month I have stated this scenario takes place in.

01-03-14, 10:37 AM	#10
Admiral Halsey Best Admiral in the USN Join Date: Apr 2013 Location: USS Enterprise (CV-6) Posts: 1,740 Downloads: 317 Uploads: 0	I remember reading somewhere about Lincoln's plan for invading Canada. Considering how early it was in the war I doubt we could have actually won if he had done so.(Grant and Sherman were complete unknowns at at that point.)

01-03-14, 12:44 PM	#11
Catfish Dipped Squirrel Operative Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: ..where the ocean meets the sky Posts: 17,767 Downloads: 38 Uploads: 0	Regarding alternate history, I am just reading 'Fatherland' from Harris, heard about it long ago but never cared. Now i got it accidentally from a friend, who had it from a library being given up. Pretty strange to read this, but Harris seems to know his stuff from the 4-meter-gauge railroads to party internals. This is about a fictional Germany that was not defeated during WW2 (indeed there was no WW, since England did not declare war, and France, Scandinavia, Greece, North Africa was never part of any war action, the USA being happy someone fights the communists). Poland has been invaded, and it with parts of Russia now belong to Germany, up to the 'Moscow line'. The war against partisans and Russia is still on, in 1964. What strikes me is how familiar some things look, when it comes to surveillance. The book is displaying the what-if in 1964 : - Wars have always been fought for freedom - uniforms everywhere, the military is considered as the most important thing and being admired as the best of the best, parades and commemoration days. Everyone liking real freedom and despising the good necessary wars is being looked down upon, or worse. - people are kept under constant strain by reported and made-up terrorist attacks, and the wars being fought against rogue or villain nations allegedly supporting those terrorists. All who dare to not like the Fatherland are partisans and terrorists, the rest living in rogue states - Security levels due to terrorist attacks in green/blue/black/red, the Security police (SiPo) running most of the surveillance in a central block, gathering information of all people via hearsay and electronic means of all kinds - certainly only few cameras and no computers to speak of in 1964 - Drones (if primitive) used for surveillance, and microphones placed everywhere (little did they know it would be even easier, with the internet) - Angst and suspicion towards illegal aliens from the world over, acting as scapegoats for unemployment and criminal activity, thus masquerading the good old Fremdenhass, at the same time promoting this feeling by the major media - Public requests everywhere like 'Be vigilant at all times', 'Terrorists are everywhere', 'Attention, report suspicious packages at once!, 'Terrorist alert!' - People reading certain books and talking about it publicly (criticizing the "free" republic and surveillance) are suspicious, their dossiers being kept for later inspection. Have not finished it yet, i wonder what drove him to write this though in 1992.

01-03-14, 01:08 PM	#12
Admiral Halsey Best Admiral in the USN Join Date: Apr 2013 Location: USS Enterprise (CV-6) Posts: 1,740 Downloads: 317 Uploads: 0	I've read that one before. One of the better alternate history books IMO.

01-03-14, 02:17 PM	#15
mapuc CINC Pacific Fleet Join Date: Sep 2003 Location: Denmark Posts: 20,537 Downloads: 37 Uploads: 0	In September 2013 USA started to bomb military installation in Syria. After about to hours of bombing a clash between two American military vessel and a Russian vessel occurred. one of the American FFG and the Russian DG was sunked the second American vessel had to withdraw due to damage(I can't remember what trigger the incident, that came to this clash) During this 2 weeks bombing a few clashes between USA and Russia occurred Now we are in October and the diplomat are working day and night to prevent the situation in middle east to escalate further as it already has. A back side of US bombing of Syria is that Lebanon, Jordan are now involved and daily Israel is being bombed from Lebanon, Syria and Jordan. Every one is just waiting that Israel is going alle in and what's going to happen when that happens CNN, FOX News and BBC World and other news channel, is sending 24/7 about this crisis The Churches that's normally empty is now filled all the time Ohh forgot one of the Cruise missile missed it's target and hit a Russian area(many say that the Russian placed the stuff there in porpoise I can't remember everything from that time- I don't know if there's a world war going on or if there's peace now. Markus