Alternate History.

[Tchocky]

This thread makes me want to dig out my old Harry Turtledove novels

[Admiral Halsey]

Originally Posted by Tchocky

This thread makes me want to dig out my old Harry Turtledove novels

I haven't read any of his yet. I can't decide between his Worldwar series or the Southern Victory series. Oh and tomorrow i'll let you guys know what I think would happen with the previous days questions.

[mapuc]

In September 2013 USA started to bomb military installation in Syria.

After about to hours of bombing a clash between two American military vessel and a Russian vessel occurred. one of the American FFG and the Russian DG was sunked the second American vessel had to withdraw due to damage(I can't remember what trigger the incident, that came to this clash)

During this 2 weeks bombing a few clashes between USA and Russia occurred

Now we are in October and the diplomat are working day and night to prevent the situation in middle east to escalate further as it already has.

A back side of US bombing of Syria is that Lebanon, Jordan are now involved and daily Israel is being bombed from Lebanon, Syria and Jordan.

Every one is just waiting that Israel is going alle in and what's going to happen when that happens

CNN, FOX News and BBC World and other news channel, is sending 24/7 about this crisis

The Churches that's normally empty is now filled all the time

Ohh forgot one of the Cruise missile missed it's target and hit a Russian area(many say that the Russian placed the stuff there in porpoise

I can't remember everything from that time- I don't know if there's a world war going on or if there's peace now.

Markus

[Admiral Halsey]

Not bad mapuc.

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Admiral Halsey

Not bad mapuc.

Thank you

The story should have the name of thise three vessel and the exact date and time when USA started the bombing.

Markus

[Oberon]

I can recommend the WorldWar series, quite an entertaining read, haven't read the Timeline-191 series though, the Days of Infamy is quite good too.
I got 1942 by Robert Conroy for Christmas, so I'm looking forward to reading through that and comparing and contrasting them.
There's a good list on Uchronia - http://www.uchronia.net/

[Admiral Halsey]

Originally Posted by Oberon

I can recommend the WorldWar series, quite an entertaining read, haven't read the Timeline-191 series though, the Days of Infamy is quite good too.
I got 1942 by Robert Conroy for Christmas, so I'm looking forward to reading through that and comparing and contrasting them.
There's a good list on Uchronia - http://www.uchronia.net/

I've read the Days of Infamy books and they're both quite good. I've also read Gingrich's Gettysburg series too and recommend it if you haven't read it yet. As for Conroy i've read Red Inferno and I have to say it was quite good. Maybe a bit unlikely in some instances.(Dropping the bomb on the exact same day as in RL is one such example.) But if you can get past them I can recommend it

[MGR1]

Originally Posted by Oberon

I can recommend the WorldWar series, quite an entertaining read, haven't read the Timeline-191 series though, the Days of Infamy is quite good too.
I got 1942 by Robert Conroy for Christmas, so I'm looking forward to reading through that and comparing and contrasting them.
There's a good list on Uchronia - http://www.uchronia.net/

I've read all but the first and and last of the TL-191 books.

Not bad, but not enough of an indication of what's happening outside the CONUS to form an idea of the world at large.

Too many characters as well.

Mike.

[Admiral Halsey]

Originally Posted by MGR1

I've read all but the first and and last of the TL-191 books.

Not bad, but not enough of an indication of what's happening outside the CONUS to form an idea of the world at large.

Too many characters as well.

Mike.

Thanks for the info. Now as promised my thoughts on my last two scenarios. The first one is all about surprise. If the Germans can catch the British off guard the could potentially pull off a "Raid on the Medway" type victory and secure better armistice terms.(That's more what the order was about from the beginning.) But as everyone else noted if the British catch wind of the plans early enough the Germans are pretty much doomed. As for the second one it all depends on how fast Napoleon III can get his fleet in France across the Atlantic to try and break the Union blockade. However even if he got there in time to do battle with the Union fleet they would get decimated from the Ironclads, and with the fall of the Confederacy imminent the threat of the Union invading Mexico will be great enough that he'll have to sue for peace.


Ok and new the latest scenario for you guys to ponder over.(This one is sort of cliched but i've yet to see an alternate history where this was the PoD.) The date is December, 7th and Private Joseph L. Lockard and Private George Elliot are on duty at the Opana Radar Site. They're heading for breakfast soon when at 7:02 am something big starts to appear on the radar set. They inform Lt. Kermit Tyler who tells them not to worry as it's just a flight of B-17's coming from the mainland but they both insist it's way to big for it to be them. After some convincing Kermit comes and checks it out at 7:30 am where upon seeing the size of the blip realizes that they were right and sounds the alarm. Now considering the time the alarm is raised what effect if any does this have on the attack?

[Platapus]

It would have had little effect.

The attack would have happened (nothing could have prevented it on 7 Dec after the Japanese aircraft took off. )

The US would still have declared war and still would have had the emotional motivation of a "sneak attack".

The actual amount of damage might be less. It is tough to tell how effective US pilots would have been against the attacking forces. The Japanese were expecting some US air cover so they would not have been totally surprised.

The outcome?

Perhaps a few less US ships sunk/damaged
Perhaps a few more Japanese aircraft shot down

But other than that, I don't see how history would have been changed.

Now if the scenario were changed to "what if the US carriers found the Japanese carriers before the attack" That might be interesting.

But 30-60 minute advance notice of the attack on PH probably would not have made much difference in the big picture.

[Dread Knot]

Originally Posted by Platapus

It would have had little effect.



But other than that, I don't see how history would have been changed.

Now if the scenario were changed to "what if the US carriers found the Japanese carriers before the attack" That might be interesting.

If the US carriers then at sea had been in position to attack then it would be a toss up. If the Japanese spotted the American carriers then just as at Midway, they would be faced with the tactical dilemma of dealing with a carrier task force and a significant land based air contingent. As they found out at Midway, there is no easy solution to that. In addition, assuming the Japanese search doctrine was just as weak six months prior to Midway as it was at Midway, there is always the chance that the Americans would launch the first strike. Given what we now know about Japanese AA ability, fighter vectoring, ship design and doctrine, a two or three carrier American strike-even if poorly coordinated would have had a very good chance of hurting the Japanese fleet. Even a mutual strike might have been significant for the Allies given Japanese damage control and the fact that any damaged Japanese carrier would have been very far away from a suitable port of refuge.

Japan did have six carriers with highly trained crews and pilots but the fact remains that in air to air carrier combat, each side was totally inexperienced with no precedent to guide them. Just about anything could have happened.

[Dread Knot]

Pearl was home to quite a few Army and Marine air squadrons. With ample warning they could have kept the Zeroes busy and forced the Japanese to disperse their attacks. However, I think the greatest benefit would have been to the ships in port assuming they got the alert too.Watertight hatches would have been dogged, anti aircraft batteries would have been manned and ready. The crews would have been alert and not in a total state of panic and confusion although there would have been some. If I were Kimmel I would have probably forbade a sortie out of port. Warships sunk in shallow water are still a better bet for recovery than those at sea and with a few minutes warning you really can't get most boilers up to speed. Perhaps the Arizona would have been saved. In the actual attack most of the converted battleship shells the Japanese used as armor piercing bombs were duds anyway.

[Oberon]

Originally Posted by Admiral Halsey

Ok and new the latest scenario for you guys to ponder over.(This one is sort of cliched but i've yet to see an alternate history where this was the PoD.) The date is December, 7th and Private Joseph L. Lockard and Private George Elliot are on duty at the Opana Radar Site. They're heading for breakfast soon when at 7:02 am something big starts to appear on the radar set. They inform Lt. Kermit Tyler who tells them not to worry as it's just a flight of B-17's coming from the mainland but they both insist it's way to big for it to be them. After some convincing Kermit comes and checks it out at 7:30 am where upon seeing the size of the blip realizes that they were right and sounds the alarm. Now considering the time the alarm is raised what effect if any does this have on the attack?

So, saying Kermit raises the alarm at around 7:30-7:35, that's approximately 23-18 minutes before Fuchida signals Totsugeki raigeki. I'd say that any warning would be negligible, if indeed it got to Pearl Harbor before the Japanese did which is extremely debatable. The US was still mostly on a peace-time footing and as such communications weren't as fast as they would become in war-time later, so perhaps it might have arrived at the same time as the Japanese declaration of war...

So, not a great deal really, IMHO at least. Perhaps a similar outcome to when Iba Field radar reported the Japanese raid incoming on Clark Field over an hour before they arrived, and yet the Japanese still managed to achieve tactical surprise.

[Admiral Halsey]

And this is why I love giving you guys these questions. It's nice to see the different opinions on them.