The Doomsday clock might still be ticking?

US IRON · 11-16-13, 06:02 PM

As a fan of the series The Walking Dead, it has been cause for me to contemplate the likelihood of an Apocalypse and I have come to the disturbing conclusion that the most likely cause of an extinction-event, or at least major calamity to our species is nuclear. Virus pandemic is another possibilty but less frightening to me (maybe naively so?). I used to think that such thoughts were extreme or misguided, like the people who promote the many conspiracy theories out there (I don't go for conspiracy theories by the way), but I am not so sure anymore. The UK government was so concerned of such an event that they prepared, though never had to use fortunately, public-service announcement short-films for it in advance of such a catastrophe in the 1970s.

I think that sadly at some time in the future (hopefully not within our lifetimes) there is a high risk of an accidental launch of a batch of nuclear missiles (satellite or GPS guided) which could trigger an escalation into an armageddon scenario. Don't get me wrong - it is not these missiles that worry me, as bad as they would be, it is the possible consequences. A fire on board a russian boomer submarine resulting in accidental launch is one scenario (there was another fire just this year, one of many), or an American one. It would be very hard for a government to stand by if home targets were hit. If the missiles were to hit random targets, due to their guidance systems being non-operational, random geographical nuclear hits could be just as dangerous in terms of possible retaliation. Might be more dangerous, due to the random and mysterious nature of the targets? I sincerely hope it never happens.... I think that if it ever does happen, it will likely be a mistake that causes it, not a planned war.

Before anyone says it can never happen (safety systems etc...), I am a mechanical engineer by profession, and despite the best possible safety measures and planning, "****-happens"..... Missiles are fired by electrical systems. Fires can cause short-circuits and all sorts of wierd stuff with electrical systems. Just because some guy hasn't inserted a key or entered a password, might make no difference. Short of disabling the system, there is always a risk of inadvertent firing. A while ago an automated robot sentry machine gun accidentally killed many soldiers after it was turned on as a demonstration. The only reason it didn't kill more, was because it ran out of bullets! It only had 400 if I recall correctly. The company that made it no-doubt said "it could never happen".

I hope, indeed my life as well of most of the people on this planet depends on me being wrong....

When I was a kid I thought that if there was an accidental or uncertain launch, that the Americans could just pick up the phone and "talk" to their Russian counterparts. Or the Indians talk to the Pakistanis now. But that is to misunderstand the nature of intelligence and counter-intelligence, the military mind-set, and the fog-of-war. Under those circumstances, nobody really trusts anyone else, and they are always planning for a "what-if" scenario, no matter how unlikely. As one of the lead characters in The Walking Dead Series says < I don't like Secrets....Secrets can get you killed!>

A very intelligent man I worked with many years ago was convinced that mankind had no future, because it would destroy itself. He doesn't sound so crazy to me anymore....though I don't believe in a total extinction - just another dark age maybe. Sorry for a gloomy first post (though I am a long time watcher of subsim). I never used to fear a nuclear armageddon, but I am starting to now.

Cybermat47 · 11-16-13, 06:28 PM

Oh man, I just realised how bad the holocaust really was, now you're saying we might all die... I've gotta stop looking at stuff like this

Stealhead · 11-16-13, 07:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by US IRON

A while ago an automated robot sentry machine gun accidentally killed many soldiers after it was turned on as a demonstration. The only reason it didn't kill more, was because it ran out of bullets! It only had 400 if I recall correctly. The company that made it no-doubt said "it could never happen".

Without a reliable source I find this claim very hard to believe.

Humanity has lived under the threat of annihilation since the Cold War in a very direct from and that has never gone away and never will.You would be right to be more concerned about India and Pakistan they are the two most likely to by accident or purposefully use their nukes against each other.

I personally disagree with the concern of a fire or other accident on a nuclear sub causing a lunch.I can base this on people that I know personally that work on them one person is no longer active and worked in the propulsion and another works in fire control(the section that actually fires the missiles)neither has ever expressed concern about an accidental launch.

The more plausible launch "accident" I think really would be more of an intentional launch without outer command but this would require every single member of the crew to be in agreement otherwise it would not be possible.

Of course the thing is nothing lasts forever in the universe or on earth if the dinosaurs had been capable of cognitive thought they would likely have felt fairly confident yet they all died out.At some point the sun will die and before it does all life on earth will be extinguished.At any time a meteorite could strike earth and cause serious species threatening problems.Heck one just barely missed earth this year over Siberia it was not known off until it appeared in the morning sky.

My advice do not spend much time worrying about things that you have no control over and just enjoy your life finite as it is.Everything is made of up the remains of stars anyway.

Sorry to break this news to you Cyber but some day you are going to die so you had better make the most of the time that you do have because you have no idea if you are going to die tomorrow or at 105 years of age.Odd are in your favor that you will live at least into your 90's.

Aktungbby · 11-16-13, 07:39 PM

A very thoughtful, measured and mechanically engineered, well articulated first post; Welcome aboard US IRON, formally;

Your thoughts are 'sanguinely sublime' considering their source, as you are a professional engineer, and half the guys holding their launch keys at silos in Minot ND just got cashiered for leaving the blast doors open and other security infractions. The upbeat thing is to recall that the dinosaurs survived the Yucatan mega disaster and so probably would we. As we are all alien-modified sasquatches to begin with,

other intelligent life in 'Goldilocks-zoned' planets around similar stars in our galaxy would simply take over.

To the 'little grey-guys' checking in,

it would simply be another failed experiment

...my advice, from the Edgar Cayce all-in-one-moment-of-time school of thought, is quit watching zombie crap and switch to the Big Bang Theory. Above all, enjoy the ride; It's a relatively fast trip down a short continuum anyway...

PS: did not see Stealhead's post prior to posting this one...amazing!

Dauntless · 11-16-13, 08:05 PM

Aktungbby · 11-16-13, 08:21 PM

Welcome aboard formally Dauntless on this, your third post!

Your 8 year old sig fits right in here(enjoy the ride) and a good video too; thanks for checkin' in!

Wolferz · 11-16-13, 08:22 PM

^^ sounds a bit nasally.

US IRON · 11-16-13, 08:30 PM

Sorry for the "downer" guys, I need to change brand of beer I think....and dreaming about Silent Hunter 6 (actually would really like to see another modern sub simulator rather than WW2)....what surprises me is that I am not pacifist and have certainly never been concerned before. I was around during the end of the cold war, and never worried about it. I have always and still believe that a strong military makes you safer, not more in danger. I believe in nuclear military technology and certainly believe that the missile stockpile has made the world a safer place. But isn't it typical of humanity that the very thing that makes you safer, could make it deadlier as well.

Thanks for the comments and yes we should all live for today. I don't work in defence, so my comments are likely way off the mark. Just an observation in general of engineering. Some guy says it can't happen - next minute it does.....

The automated sentry accident did happen in South Africa if I recall? I read about it in a book called "Wired for war". Link below.

http://forums.sherdog.com/forums/f54...s-14-a-663475/

Aktungbby · 11-16-13, 08:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by US IRON

Sorry for the "downer" guys, I need to change brand of beer I think....

Go with HAMM'S!

Quote:

Originally Posted by Wolferz

^^ sounds a bit nasally.

WELL! switched ends for a change from your customary point of view!

TarJak · 11-17-13, 01:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Aktungbby

Go with HAMM'S!

WELL! switched ends for a change from your customary point of view!

This post was brought to you by the maker of Hamms. Cool refreshment from the land of blue waters. /Advert.

Jimbuna · 11-17-13, 07:03 AM

Welcome to SubSim US IRON

Armistead · 11-17-13, 09:12 AM

I think humanity will die the slow cruel death it deserves....but thankfully roaches will survive..

Platapus · 11-17-13, 12:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Armistead

I think humanity will die the slow cruel death it deserves....but thankfully roaches will survive..

The sooner that happens, the sooner the earth can recover.

Wolferz · 11-17-13, 12:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Armistead

I think humanity will die the slow cruel death it deserves....but thankfully roaches will survive..

So, you're safe. What about the rest of us?

Secrecy: The first refuge of the incompetent.

Suffice it to say that we all are given a finite amount of time to tread upon this planet. If we waste even a second of that time worrying about our impending end, we'll forget to actually live.

Live each minute as though it were your last because there are far too many things that can make it so.

Welcome to the crazy boat US Iron.

11-16-13, 06:02 PM	#1
US IRON Nub Join Date: Nov 2013 Posts: 4 Downloads: 0 Uploads: 0	The Doomsday clock might still be ticking? As a fan of the series The Walking Dead, it has been cause for me to contemplate the likelihood of an Apocalypse and I have come to the disturbing conclusion that the most likely cause of an extinction-event, or at least major calamity to our species is nuclear. Virus pandemic is another possibilty but less frightening to me (maybe naively so?). I used to think that such thoughts were extreme or misguided, like the people who promote the many conspiracy theories out there (I don't go for conspiracy theories by the way), but I am not so sure anymore. The UK government was so concerned of such an event that they prepared, though never had to use fortunately, public-service announcement short-films for it in advance of such a catastrophe in the 1970s. I think that sadly at some time in the future (hopefully not within our lifetimes) there is a high risk of an accidental launch of a batch of nuclear missiles (satellite or GPS guided) which could trigger an escalation into an armageddon scenario. Don't get me wrong - it is not these missiles that worry me, as bad as they would be, it is the possible consequences. A fire on board a russian boomer submarine resulting in accidental launch is one scenario (there was another fire just this year, one of many), or an American one. It would be very hard for a government to stand by if home targets were hit. If the missiles were to hit random targets, due to their guidance systems being non-operational, random geographical nuclear hits could be just as dangerous in terms of possible retaliation. Might be more dangerous, due to the random and mysterious nature of the targets? I sincerely hope it never happens.... I think that if it ever does happen, it will likely be a mistake that causes it, not a planned war. Before anyone says it can never happen (safety systems etc...), I am a mechanical engineer by profession, and despite the best possible safety measures and planning, "****-happens"..... Missiles are fired by electrical systems. Fires can cause short-circuits and all sorts of wierd stuff with electrical systems. Just because some guy hasn't inserted a key or entered a password, might make no difference. Short of disabling the system, there is always a risk of inadvertent firing. A while ago an automated robot sentry machine gun accidentally killed many soldiers after it was turned on as a demonstration. The only reason it didn't kill more, was because it ran out of bullets! It only had 400 if I recall correctly. The company that made it no-doubt said "it could never happen". I hope, indeed my life as well of most of the people on this planet depends on me being wrong.... When I was a kid I thought that if there was an accidental or uncertain launch, that the Americans could just pick up the phone and "talk" to their Russian counterparts. Or the Indians talk to the Pakistanis now. But that is to misunderstand the nature of intelligence and counter-intelligence, the military mind-set, and the fog-of-war. Under those circumstances, nobody really trusts anyone else, and they are always planning for a "what-if" scenario, no matter how unlikely. As one of the lead characters in The Walking Dead Series says < I don't like Secrets....Secrets can get you killed!> A very intelligent man I worked with many years ago was convinced that mankind had no future, because it would destroy itself. He doesn't sound so crazy to me anymore....though I don't believe in a total extinction - just another dark age maybe. Sorry for a gloomy first post (though I am a long time watcher of subsim). I never used to fear a nuclear armageddon, but I am starting to now.

11-16-13, 06:28 PM	#2
Cybermat47 Willing Webfooted Beast Join Date: Aug 2012 Location: Australia Posts: 5,408 Downloads: 300 Uploads: 23	Oh man, I just realised how bad the holocaust really was, now you're saying we might all die... I've gotta stop looking at stuff like this __________________ Historical TWoS Gameplay Guide: http://www.subsim.com/radioroom/showthread.php?p=2572620 Historical FotRSU Gameplay Guide: https://www.subsim.com/radioroom/sho....php?p=2713394

11-16-13, 07:39 PM	#4
Aktungbby Gefallen Engel U-666 Join Date: Jul 2013 Location: On a tilted, overheated, overpopulated spinning mudball on Collision course with Andromeda Galaxy Posts: 29,979 Downloads: 24 Uploads: 0	A very thoughtful, measured and mechanically engineered, well articulated first post; Welcome aboard US IRON, formally;Your thoughts are 'sanguinely sublime' considering their source, as you are a professional engineer, and half the guys holding their launch keys at silos in Minot ND just got cashiered for leaving the blast doors open and other security infractions. The upbeat thing is to recall that the dinosaurs survived the Yucatan mega disaster and so probably would we. As we are all alien-modified sasquatches to begin with, other intelligent life in 'Goldilocks-zoned' planets around similar stars in our galaxy would simply take over. To the 'little grey-guys' checking in, it would simply be another failed experiment...my advice, from the Edgar Cayce all-in-one-moment-of-time school of thought, is quit watching zombie crap and switch to the Big Bang Theory. Above all, enjoy the ride; It's a relatively fast trip down a short continuum anyway...PS: did not see Stealhead's post prior to posting this one...amazing! __________________ "Only two things are infinite; The Universe and human squirrelyness?!! Last edited by Aktungbby; 11-26-13 at 03:15 PM.

11-16-13, 08:05 PM	#5
Dauntless Nub Join Date: May 2005 Location: Cincinnati, Ohio Posts: 3 Downloads: 258 Uploads: 0	__________________ Gene \"Dauntless\" Flannery \"Life is not a journey to the grave with the intention of arriving safely in a pretty and well preserved body, but rather to skid in broadside, thoroughly used up, totally worn out, and loudly proclaiming--WOW--What a ride!!!\" -Stuart Wilde- \"Ah, but I was so much older then, I\'m younger than that now.\" -Bob Dylan-

11-16-13, 08:21 PM	#6
Aktungbby Gefallen Engel U-666 Join Date: Jul 2013 Location: On a tilted, overheated, overpopulated spinning mudball on Collision course with Andromeda Galaxy Posts: 29,979 Downloads: 24 Uploads: 0	Welcome aboard formally Dauntless on this, your third post! Your 8 year old sig fits right in here(enjoy the ride) and a good video too; thanks for checkin' in! __________________ "Only two things are infinite; The Universe and human squirrelyness?!!

11-16-13, 08:22 PM	#7
Wolferz Navy Seal Join Date: May 2007 Location: On a mighty quest for the Stick of Truth Posts: 5,963 Downloads: 52 Uploads: 0	^^ sounds a bit nasally. __________________ Tomorrow never comes

11-16-13, 08:30 PM	#8
US IRON Nub Join Date: Nov 2013 Posts: 4 Downloads: 0 Uploads: 0	Sentry accident Sorry for the "downer" guys, I need to change brand of beer I think....and dreaming about Silent Hunter 6 (actually would really like to see another modern sub simulator rather than WW2)....what surprises me is that I am not pacifist and have certainly never been concerned before. I was around during the end of the cold war, and never worried about it. I have always and still believe that a strong military makes you safer, not more in danger. I believe in nuclear military technology and certainly believe that the missile stockpile has made the world a safer place. But isn't it typical of humanity that the very thing that makes you safer, could make it deadlier as well. Thanks for the comments and yes we should all live for today. I don't work in defence, so my comments are likely way off the mark. Just an observation in general of engineering. Some guy says it can't happen - next minute it does..... The automated sentry accident did happen in South Africa if I recall? I read about it in a book called "Wired for war". Link below. http://forums.sherdog.com/forums/f54...s-14-a-663475/

11-17-13, 07:03 AM	#11
Jimbuna Chief of the Boat Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: 250 metres below the surface Posts: 190,452 Downloads: 63 Uploads: 13	Welcome to SubSim US IRON __________________ Wise men speak because they have something to say; Fools because they have to say something. Oh my God, not again!!

11-17-13, 09:12 AM	#12
Armistead Rear Admiral Join Date: Dec 2008 Location: on the Dan Posts: 10,880 Downloads: 364 Uploads: 0	I think humanity will die the slow cruel death it deserves....but thankfully roaches will survive.. __________________ You see my dog don't like people laughing. He gets the crazy idea you're laughing at him. Now if you apologize like I know you're going to, I might convince him that you really didn't mean it.