North and South Korea are at it again

[the_tyrant]

Originally Posted by TLAM Strike

Not sure if the North would even be able to advance that far. With US and ROK battlefield surveillance being what it is any large mechanized force will just stand out and draw fire. Remember the Highway of Death? US/ROK aircraft flying above 12,000 feet will have almost free reign since most North Korean SAM systems are compromised since former WP nations joined NATO. Even the much vaunted S-300. If you can't control the skys armor is toast. Forget about the KPAF, they have only about 35 Fulcrums in service, the rest are MiG 17-23. I wonder how many aces the blue team are going to have on day 1? Especally if the US commits Raptors out of Guam right off the bat.

I guess it would take at least 10 hours for the US for formulate and execute a plan in order to delay North Korean forces

If North Korea sneak attacks, than i guess it would take North Korea maybe 2 hours to break through (nor sure though) certain points on the South Korean fortifications.
After that maybe North Korean forces could advance 4-20km per hour.

Now i have made 2 assumptions that may not be correct:
because of the geographical location, i assumed that South Korea's defense line is a point defense system. and not defense in depth
also, i assumed if North Korea concentrates forces that focuse on penetrating certain portions on the defense line, North Korea could break through. Of course, this might not happen
Also,

[TLAM Strike]

Originally Posted by the_tyrant

I guess it would take at least 10 hours for the US for formulate and execute a plan in order to delay North Korean forces

I assume we have plans on the shelf for any type of North Korean attack. Otherwise what are we paying the Pentagon for?

If North Korea sneak attacks, than i guess it would take North Korea maybe 2 hours to break through (nor sure though) certain points on the South Korean fortifications.
After that maybe North Korean forces could advance 4-20km per hour.

Now i have made 2 assumptions that may not be correct:
because of the geographical location, i assumed that South Korea's defense line is a point defense system. and not defense in depth
also, i assumed if North Korea concentrates forces that focuse on penetrating certain portions on the defense line, North Korea could break through. Of course, this might not happen
Also,

Well the land near the DMZ is forested hills/mountainous then south of the DMZ (where you put the green line) is the Imjin River which is a natural defense that must be bridged. Anphib tanks are no match for MBTs (heck most aren't even a match for a Bradly) so even if they cross they will get chewed up quick so engineers must set up bridges to cross or use landing boats. The river is going to be mined very quick with , and any bridges they set up will be easily spotted by birds in orbit or by JSTARS and taken out.

OMG, North vs South. Spy vs Spy, East vs West, when will it end ? I know when they ,who ever they, think they are, those who decide they are the rulers of the new world order, that think 2 thirds of us should die so that we don't suck up thier perious air. Question where do you fit in those thirds ? By the way bone up on your chinesse. Death by a thousand cuts, so what will Iran do ? TSA, Thousands Standing Around.

So Yubba, is it the North or South Koreans who are really the reptillian penguins from the planet Blurg?
If I donate a can of sardines to them do you think they will let me be one of the third who can live?

[krashkart]

Originally Posted by the_tyrant

but remember, north korean equipment lacks maintenance and spare parts
after 60 years, i don't really expect those guns to still work

Expect the guns to be fully operational. The Ottomans maintained a 300-year old siege cannon and used it to help thwart the Royal Navy in the early 1800's. Never underestimate your enemy.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dardanelles_gun
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dardanelles_Operation

Also, expect the enemy to pull an ace or more out of his sleeve. You never know what kind of weird **** the top commanders on either side have sitting on the back burners.

If NK wants war, what do they have in place to defend themselves against repeated counterattack? What are their deepest of defenses? They don't have much as far as we can see, but what they do have is worth holding on to. And we will eventually take it as long as the doves don't get up in a bind about it. Thoughts?

[Raptor1]

Originally Posted by the_tyrant

my estimates (battle for Seoul) assuming North Korea attacks first, using 2000 forces:
First phase (red lines) 0-10 hours: are the first wave of North Korean attacks. Localized breakthroughs could be achieved, but no significant progress by the north Korean armies. North Korean artillery would cause a certain amount of damage to Seoul. However, the majority of North Korean guns would be destroyed by air-strikes and counter-battery fire.

Second phase (blue lines) 10-24 hours: South Korean localized counter attack. South Korean strategic reserves are used. Reserves and militia are mobilized. At the end of this phase, south Korean forces would dig in at the green line

Third phase (brown lines) 24-96 hours: South Korean forces would take back and restore prewar positions. American forces start to arrive. Both sides dig into their prewar defense lines, creating a short-lived stalemate. South Korea destroys most of the North's air power. Continued air strikes would cause damage to North Korean Forces

Forth Phase (black lines) after 96 hours: South Korea drive into North Korea with assistance from international forces


what do you guys think?

I don't think that's going to happen, for a number of reasons:

First of all, there are tactical and logistical problems, relating to terrain, air power and the fact that much of the North Korean army is junk, which means that a direct assault on Seoul is most likely going to be stopped on the DMZ itself. So I don't think they'll get that far.

Secondly, according to what is known about North Korean operational strategy, which seems to be based on the Soviet deep battle doctrine, it's very unlikely the DPRK will even attempt a major breakthrough right across Seoul. You see, the deployment of the North Korean army (Or at least what is known of it) includes a first and second echelon (And a strategic reserve), much like the Soviet Army, with the first comprising infantry corps and the second tank and mechanized corps. The idea is that the first echelon formations will execute set-piece offensives across the DMZ, breaking through the enemy front line. After breakthrough is achieved, the second echelon formations will then act in support of the attack and as operational maneuver groups, which will rush through the gap and proceed to occupy the enemy's operational depth.

If the North Koreans hadn't changed their deployment and doctrine when I wasn't looking, I'd say the most logical course of action for them is to execute secondary attacks on Seoul to prevent movement of forces and attempt to achieve a breakthrough to the east of Seoul, in the center of the line, then use the operational maneuver groups to encircle Seoul and cut off the bulk of the ROK/US forces.

Of course, this most likely won't work because of the same tactical and logistical problems. The estimate of North Korean doctrine might also be totally off, but there's not too much to work with nowadays.

[Oberon]

4 out of 6 K9 were outside of the base for training, so only 2 K9s were damaged. One K9 got direct shot but survived, and other one had just missed the direct shot but the blast caused damage. Both K9s had problem on their FCS due to damage. Therefore, only 4 K9s were used for counterattack.
There is a suspicion that someone (NK agent) in the island and guided artilleries since NK artillery seemed adjusting targets by shooting few rounds at the beginning.

[CCIP]

Two civilians also reported found dead on the island this morning.


TLAM: thanks for that link, great read!

[Armistead]

If we take on NK, the tactics will be based on the best way to make money, meaning a slower war and more nation building. Wonder what would happen if Palin were Pres.

Fact is the Mississippi National Guard could take out NK in two weeks

[TLAM Strike]

Originally Posted by Armistead

If we take on NK, the tactics will be based on the best way to make money, meaning a slower war and more nation building.

I think a fast deceive stragty would be better. Overrun and capture as much of their nuclear sites as possible, which would be difficult since Yongbyon is so far North. Hate to think what would happen to the people and materials at those sites if they got scattered in to the wind and landed in places like Libya, Syria, Iran, or Myanmar.

Fact is the Mississippi National Guard could take out NK in two weeks

Too bad the MNG dosn't have any naval kit. Because ASW is going to be huge against North Korea, they have around 70 subs. Sure they are either old and busted or small coastal boats. But just having such large numbers could be overwhelming. If they surged the majority against us it would constitute the largest naval force directed against a western nation in wartime since WWII (Falklands included).

[Molon Labe]

This just in from the 7th Fleet: The G-Dub is headed to the Yellow Sea.

Let's see if those plans change while the strike group is in transit. I really hope they don't. There is no sense in respecting China's wishes if they intend to continue enabling the DPRK instead of contributing positively to the peace/disarmament process.

[TLAM Strike]

Originally Posted by Molon Labe

This just in from the 7th Fleet: The G-Dub is headed to the Yellow Sea.

Let's see if those plans change while the strike group is in transit. I really hope they don't. There is no sense in respecting China's wishes if they intend to continue enabling the DPRK instead of contributing positively to the peace/disarmament process.

For a list of participating ROK forces, please contact ROK Joint Chiefs of Staff Public Affairs.

"Ummm yes I would like to know the participating ROKN ships, their deployment time tables and EMCOM postures?"

I dare someone to send that email!

Why even bother giving that info out. Do they think the news services know anything about such forces. Last night on the news they said the North Koreans sank a South Korean submarine when talking about the Cheonan...

[TLAM Strike]

http://www.informationdissemination....urs-later.html

ID is reporting some interesting stuff...

There are 50 major warships of the USN, ROKN, and JMSDF at sea heading to Korean waters.

Also the first US ISR asset on scene was a UAV launched from the submarine USS Jimmy Carter.

In addition North Korea's crop harvest appears to be very poor.

[Raptor1]

Originally Posted by TLAM Strike

In addition North Korea's crop harvest appears to be very poor.

Hasn't it been for the last 20 years or so?

USS George Washington en route to South Korea

[Oberon]

Originally Posted by TLAM Strike

In addition North Korea's crop harvest appears to be very poor.

All the more reason to distract the starving public with warnings of 'Southern Aggression'.