Gentlemen

[Brag]

Asimetric warfare is the emerging defense doctrine du jour. Wr have seen excellent examples of this recently in Lebanon and of course Iraq. Submarines are the "cheap" response to aircraft carriers. There are only a few countries capable of carrying out a global campaign against shipping. However, I do see the possibility of mine warfare on a global scale where submarines are used as layers.

Imagine this scenario: Dormant mines laid on the approaches to Norfolk to be activated at a later date by the sound signature of an aircraft carrier. This could be an unatributable attack. I also see the development of a torpedo-mine that will seek its target when activated. It will be interesting to see who else will develop the pulsating torpedo. (Iran has hinted that it has them).

We also have a situation for which there is no historical precedent. The U.S. is the predominant naval power. Except for a handful of tankers it has no merchant fleet. This is an abnormality that leads to interesting strategic scenarios.

We have plenty of reasons for conflict and countries are developing and buying quiet submarines. So I vote, yes. There is a threat of a global submarine campaign.