Another Alternative History

[Ostfriese]

Originally Posted by Otto Harkaman

Conclusion
Had Germany—the Weimar Republic first, and then the Nazi regime—committed to rapid, decentralized roll-out of multiple CTL trains in the late 1920s/early 1930s and invested heavily in process R&D, they could have built significantly larger synthetic-fuel stockpiles by the eve of World War II. Furthermore, exploiting the 1939–1942 “quiet” period to erect camouflaged, modular plants would have mitigated the later Allied bombing campaign, preserving reserve production and potentially prolonging their ability to field mechanized forces.

While this sounds nice as a theory it was a completely difficult matter in reality. Despite everything that is being said about synthetic fuel production in Germany it remained a niché product even at its clima. It would have required a considerable amount of your plants (easily a medium three-digit-figure) to come anywhere close to the needed number, and it would have required cruical and limited resources (especially for the catalytic converters).


Moreover, logistic considerations also dramatically reduce the number of reasonable places where these plants could have been built. Usually plants like these are built close to one of the resources, otherwise the resources would have had to be transported over long distances by rail. The German railway system, although very dense, was not capable to provide logistics for a full scale multi-front war, especially if the trains had to leave the German railway system. The railway system was to become one of the German achilles' heels once the tactical bombing campaign started in 1944 - it had always been vulnerable.


In the end there's no reasonable scenario in which Nazi Germany could have coveretd its Petrol/Oli/Lubricants needs by synthetic production alone. This was well known even back then, and this was the reason why there was so much focus on other nations' oil sources and oil reserves in the strategic planning.

[Otto Harkaman]

Originally Posted by Ostfriese

In the end there's no reasonable scenario in which Nazi Germany could have coveretd its Petrol/Oli/Lubricants needs by synthetic production alone. This was well known even back then, and this was the reason why there was so much focus on other nations' oil sources and oil reserves in the strategic planning.

I guess I was so taken by the "Formula"

[Shadowblade]

Originally Posted by Raf1394

It still remains a interesting subject.
Things that happend during WW2 had a huge impact today.

If also heard that the interbellum periode (time between WW1 and WW2)
was also an interesting time period.

Some historians say that the end of WW1 triggered a future war.

yes, The Treaty of Versailles which ended WW1 was also one of causes of WW2

[Ostfriese]

Originally Posted by Shadowblade

yes, The Treaty of Versailles which ended WW1 was also one of causes of WW2

Mostly because it tried to squeeze different, incompatible interests (French, American and British mostly) into a single treaty, leaving Germany both weakened and humiliated and at the same time in a strong position on the continent (instead of being bordered by three major empires they now were surrounded by minor state and a seriously weakened France).

[Raf1394]

Originally Posted by Ostfriese

Mostly because it tried to squeeze different, incompatible interests (French, American and British mostly) into a single treaty, leaving Germany both weakened and humiliated and at the same time in a strong position on the continent (instead of being bordered by three major empires they now were surrounded by minor state and a seriously weakened France).

I actually never really understood. How come Germany could take out France that fast... One would think that the German defeat in WW1. Would make Germany economical weak.

France and UK as the winners would come out to be superior.

It wasn't a public secret that Germany in the late 1930's was building up the military. I never understood why France and the UK never started to build there army up too, especially France, because they border Germany, they have the risk of an direct invasion.
France had the benefit of being one of the winners of WW1. But eventually got there but kicked almost 20 years later. By the country who lost WW1. And was also suffering economical instability in the 1920's.

When both the UK and France declared war on Germany in 1939. you had the Phoney war. There was almost no real military action on the Western Front during that time. Some people say that this was the chance for France and the UK to launch the offensive. Germany wasn't yet that powerful. Some historians believe they could have reached Berlin. If you had a combined British/French invasion force.

The naval warfare was pretty active during that time period. Like we all know as WW2 subsim gamers The German Kriegsmarine was also no match against the Royal Navy.

[Shadowblade]

Originally Posted by Ostfriese

Mostly because it tried to squeeze different, incompatible interests (French, American and British mostly) into a single treaty, leaving Germany both weakened and humiliated and at the same time in a strong position on the continent (instead of being bordered by three major empires they now were surrounded by minor state and a seriously weakened France).

well, they tried to squeeze war reparations from defeated country which was weakened by war, blockade and hunger. No wonder, that Germans were feeling humiliated and pissed off.

That is why Marshall plan existed after WW2 to prevent repeating this situation.

[Shadowblade]

Originally Posted by Raf1394

I actually never really understood. How come Germany could take out France that fast... One would think that the German defeat in WW1. Would make Germany economical weak.

France and UK as the winners would come out to be superior.

It wasn't a public secret that Germany in the late 1930's was building up the military. I never understood why France and the UK never started to build there army up too, especially France, because they border Germany, they have the risk of an direct invasion.
France had the benefit of being one of the winners of WW1. But eventually got there but kicked almost 20 years later. By the country who lost WW1. And was also suffering economical instability in the 1920's.

When both the UK and France declared war on Germany in 1939. you had the Phoney war. There was almost no real military action on the Western Front during that time. Some people say that this was the chance for France and the UK to launch the offensive. Germany wasn't yet that powerful. Some historians believe they could have reached Berlin. If you had a combined British/French invasion force.

The naval warfare was pretty active during that time period. Like we all know as WW2 subsim gamers The German Kriegsmarine was also no match against the Royal Navy.

because France and Great Britain were no prepared for war and did not want another war because they had high casualties in WW1 => so the were not ready for it. That is why they betrayed Czechoslovakia and sold it to Germany. To avoid the war and buy more time for themselves.

[Dargo]

Against Germany’s 100 infantry divisions and six armoured divisions, France had 90 infantry divisions in metropolitan France, Great Britain had 10 infantry divisions, and Poland had 30 infantry divisions, 12 cavalry brigades, and one armoured brigade (Poland had also 30 reserve infantry divisions, but these could not be mobilized quickly). A division contained from 12,000 to 25,000 men. It was the qualitative superiority of the German infantry divisions and the number of their armoured divisions that made the difference in 1939. The firepower of a German infantry division far exceeded that of a French, British, or Polish division; the standard German division included 442 machine guns, 135 mortars, 72 antitank guns, and 24 howitzers. Allied divisions had a firepower only slightly greater than that of World War I. Germany had six armoured divisions in September 1939; the Allies, though they had a large number of tanks, had no armoured divisions at that time.

Mechanization was the key to the German bewegungskrieg, or “mobile warfare,” so named because of the unprecedented speed and mobility that were its salient characteristics. Tested and well-trained in manoeuvres, the German panzer divisions constituted a force with no equal in Europe. The German Air Force, or Luftwaffe, was also the best force of its kind in 1939. It was a ground-cooperation force designed to support the Army, but its planes were superior to nearly all Allied types. In the rearmament period from 1935 to 1939 the production of German combat aircraft steadily mounted.

The Germans learned this crucial, though subtle, lesson from World War I. The Allies on the other hand felt that their victory confirmed their methods, weapons, and leadership, and in the interwar period the French and British armies were slow to introduce new weapons, methods, and doctrines. Consequently, in 1939 the British Army did not have a single armoured division, and the French tanks were distributed in small packets throughout the infantry divisions. The Germans, by contrast, began to develop large tank formations on an effective basis after their rearmament program began in 1935.

[mapuc]

Thank you Otto Harkaman for your alternative historical input-They were interesting to read.

The last one made me think in the term of Asa belief/religious belief.

Markus

[Otto Harkaman]

An alternate history thriller imagining how the Allies preemptively cripple Germany’s war machine and prevent the 1939 invasion of Poland—not with armies, but through covert sabotage, economic pressure, and industrial espionage.

Title: Operation Eclipse

History is not a straight line. In the world of intelligence, sometimes a shadow well-placed across the right document, rail line, or chemical plant changes the course of a century. This is the story of one such shadow—and the people who cast it.

Prologue – Geneva, 1933
As Hitler rises to power, MI6 station chief Richard Llewellyn meets with French Deuxième Bureau analyst Captain Henri Delorme. Over cognac in a dim salon, they make a fateful decision: don’t wait for the Wehrmacht to move. Kill the fuel before it reaches the engine.

Part I – Black Gold

Chapter 1 – The American Gambit
At the U.S. State Department, analyst Eleanor Van Dorn, a Roosevelt confidante, uncovers a pattern of German oil stockpiling. She urges FDR to quietly pressure U.S. oil majors—Texaco, Standard Oil, and Socony-Vacuum—to cease petroleum shipments to Germany. Back-channel deals with Congress pave the way for a secret executive order: no fuel for fascists.

Chapter 3 – The Latin Firebreak
CIA predecessor "Wild Bill" Donovan, dispatched to Venezuela and Mexico under commercial cover, bribes nationalist factions to delay or block German oil tankers. “Delays due to port congestion” pile up—dozens of barrels a day never make it across the Atlantic.

Part II – Synthetic Shadows

Chapter 7 – Leuna Falls
British SOE agent Anna Fraser, posing as a Swiss chemist, infiltrates the Leuna Works hydrogenation facility in late 1937. Armed with industrial blueprints and plastique hidden in test equipment, she sabotages catalytic reformers during a critical scale-up phase. A “process accident” destroys the plant’s expansion wing and kills Germany’s CTL capacity for 18 months.

Chapter 9 – The Spearhead Crumbles
Simultaneously, French saboteurs destroy vital Fischer–Tropsch equipment being shipped to the Heydebreck plant. Without critical reactors, Germany’s synthetic program can’t grow past 30,000 bbl/day. Fuel stress hits the Wehrmacht’s mechanized divisions first—trucks idle, panzer fuel drills go dry.

Part III – A Gathering Storm

Chapter 12 – Panic in Berlin
In spring 1939, a desperate Albert Speer informs Hitler that synthetic production has flatlined and Romania can only meet 40% of demand. German reserves have shrunk to under 4 million barrels—enough for weeks, not a war. Luftwaffe brass warn that fuel shortages would ground aircraft after the first blitz week.

Chapter 13 – The Molotov Mirage An Allied double agent in Moscow arranges for Soviet oil promised in the Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact to “mysteriously” disappear—diverted by rail mishaps and ghost shipments. Stalin, eyeing Bessarabia, delays.

Part IV – The Flash That Failed

Chapter 16 – September 1st, 1939
German troops mass on the Polish border. But the spearhead divisions lack the fuel to maintain operational tempo. Luftwaffe sorties are halved. On the eve of the attack, panzer battalions are ordered to stand down. Hitler rages. Keitel and Guderian plead for delay. “Resupply in two weeks,” they lie.

Chapter 17 – The Polish Gambit
Poland, tipped off by Allied signals intelligence, mobilizes early and strengthens the Vistula Line. The expected blitz never materializes. Instead, a static war begins—one Germany cannot afford. The illusion of Nazi invincibility breaks.

Epilogue – Shadow Victory As Berlin descends into crisis and internal dissent, Hitler’s credibility cracks. A failed coup in spring 1940 brings down the Nazi regime. A Cold War dawns early—between the Allies and Stalin’s emboldened Red Army—but the world has avoided a second world war.

In a quiet London pub, Anna Fraser reads a memo stamped TOP SECRET – OPERATION ECLIPSE COMPLETE.

Chapter 7 — Leuna Falls

June 9, 1938 – Merseburg, Germany

Anna Fraser had a background in industrial chemistry and a talent for lying under pressure—qualities the Special Operations Executive valued more than marksmanship. Posing as Dr. Anneliese Vogt, a Swiss process engineer recruited to assist with scale-up at I.G. Farben’s prized Leuna Works, she stood under the arched steel ribs of Reactor Hall C, watching thousands of gallons of synthetic crude hiss through cracking towers and catalytic beds.

The Nazis thought they were months away from doubling output.

Anna was going to make sure they never got there.

The Leuna Works was Germany’s industrial beating heart—two square kilometers of cooling towers, hydrogenation lines, rail links, and a nervous undercurrent of power that hummed through everything. If you wanted to turn brown coal into aviation fuel, this was the closest thing to a magic machine.

And magic machines, Anna thought, are still just machines. They break.

She wore a gray lab coat, gloves, and the gold-edged visitor’s badge that allowed her to walk the plant accompanied by her “liaison,” Herr Dieter Klein, a stout engineer with the inquisitiveness of a German shepherd and the temperament of a neutron bomb.

“We are pushing to 48,000 barrels a day by year’s end,” Klein said, gesturing at a control panel arrayed with analog dials and blinking lights. “Soon, no more dependency on imported oil. The Führer himself has seen our charts.”

Anna nodded. “And what happens when the reactor fouls at high pressure?”

Klein chuckled. “It doesn’t. We are Germans.”

She smiled. “Let’s hope you’re right.”

She knew exactly where she had to go.

The plant’s Achilles' heel was its nickel-molybdenum catalyst beds inside the high-pressure hydrogen reactors—each the size of a rail car and filled with materials vulnerable to thermal cycling. A mistimed startup would crack the ceramic cores. Too much sulfur feedstock, and the beds would be poisoned in days.

But Anna had brought something better: a compound from the SOE lab at Porton Down—a fast-degrading metallic salt that, when added to feed lines during peak pressure, would trigger a chain reaction leading to catalyst collapse. It wouldn't explode. It would simply rot the guts of the plant.

That night, while the shift changed and Klein left to "file the day's report," Anna found her opening. She bypassed a pump relay room using an old boiler service key she'd duplicated, accessed Feed Line 3C, and inserted a glass vial into the maintenance injector valve.

Ten seconds. The solution hissed as it entered the stream. No alarms.

She resealed the valve, turned, and—

“Was machen Sie da?” a voice barked.

A night technician—too young, too serious—stood with a clipboard and a suspicious look.

Anna straightened. “System flush protocol. Scheduled.”

The technician frowned. “I didn’t see it on the log.”

“Ask Herr Klein,” she said, injecting frost into her voice. “He authorized it himself. Do you want me to report your obstruction?”

A beat of silence. Then, a nod. The technician turned away.

Anna exhaled, heart pounding in her ears.

June 15, 1938 – Six days later

From the seat of a train leaving Leipzig, Anna read the headline on Völkischer Beobachter:

“LEUNA TECHNICAL FAULT SHUTS DOWN EXPANSION. INVESTIGATION UNDERWAY.”

Officially, it was a hydrogen seal failure in the pressure feed manifold. Unofficially, the plant’s new reactors had buckled under anomalous thermal fatigue. Engineers were baffled. Repairs would take 9–12 months. Fuel targets were downgraded.

And the Polish border was still quiet.

End of Chapter

[Ostfriese]

Originally Posted by Raf1394

I actually never really understood. How come Germany could take out France that fast... One would think that the German defeat in WW1. Would make Germany economical weak.

One of the reasons (certainly not the only one) was a severe manpower shortage which plagued France torughout the interbellum. This was one of the main reasons why France opted for the Maginot Line - an incredibly expensive project in terms of resources.
Also, France experienced a period of political instability in the 1930s.

The German Kriegsmarine was also no match against the Royal Navy.

And it's difficult to see how it could have been different.
With a LOT of hindsight an early and exclusive focus on U-Boats would likely have been the most promising way. This would have meant ignoring a battle fleet for the most part, sticking to the Panzerschiffe as the largest ships (they wree planned and built during the Weimar Republic) and instead producing a larger submarine fleet, together wirh a fleet of mostly destroyers. A strong U-Boat arm in 1939 might have forced considerable pressure on Britain during the first happy period and probably (especially pre-Churchill) might even have been able to coerce Britain to make compromises. At the start of the war the Kriegsmarine had about 55 frontline U-Boats, half of which were Type IIs. A focus on U-Boats might have given the Kriegsmarine a force of 150, probably even 200 frontline U-Boats. This fleet could have wreaked havoc in the early days of the war, but I don't see how this could have been achieved with Raeder in command.

[mapuc]

Here's an interesting YT-channel History undone A lot of What-If videos around WW1 in between and WWII

https://www.youtube.com/@HistoryUndonewithJamesHanson

Markus

[Dargo]