Saudi oil fields on fire, but who did it?

[Bilge_Rat]

Originally Posted by Skybird

Or was it Israel? They have the means, and the motive could be to bring SA into an open war against Israel's biggest enemy, Iran. But that would be quite a dimension for a secret operation by Israel. No, I think I attribute the missile attacks now to the same attacker who is responsible for the mine attacks in past weeks. And I do not think that was Israel either.

Israel has become a de facto ally of Saudi Arabia over the past years since they have a common enemy: Iran. That has allowed them to break their decades long diplomatic isolation in the region. I don't see any upside for Israel to be behind the attack.

[ikalugin]

Originally Posted by Bilge_Rat

Israel has become a de facto ally of Saudi Arabia over the past years since they have a common enemy: Iran. That has allowed them to break their decades long diplomatic isolation in the region. I don't see any upside for Israel to be behind the attack.

Apart of the false flag against Iran and getting US to intervene?

[Skybird]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-49733558

The US has reportedly identified locations in Iran from which drones and cruise missiles were launched against the Saudi oil facilities on Saturday.
Senior officials told CBS News that the locations were in southern Iran, at the northern end of the Gulf.
Saudi air defences did not stop the drones and missiles because they were pointed southwards, to prevent attacks from Yemen, the officials added.

If true, then it is no longer a proxy war, but a full blown direct war. taking out half of the oil refining industry of another state is no longer just an "incident" or a continuation of diplomacy with other means. Its a war attack, plain and simple.

If true, then the iranophile Europeans look like idiots once again. And a huge military reaction can be the only reasonable reaction. Else the US looks like an idiot, too.

As I see it we are only one presentation of evidence away from open war.

Mean while China tightens ties with Iran, too, like Russia. Another reason not to just sit still.

Or the US plans to leave the whole ME. That bwill piss everybody in trhe MEW, will desatroy the credibility of the US, the diplomatic trustiworethiness of its treaties and its words, and will render NATO pointless a treaty, too. Splendid isolation,yaddayadda, blabla, it spopular in the Us maybe, I understand. But that means automatically a leave from the biw world stage, and a loss of trustworthiness with Pacific allies as well. Taiwan, Japan, Phillipines, Asutralöia are watching the Gulf. What the US is doing there, will make these states evalaute the value of their treaties with the US. Leave the Gulf - and drive Pacific allies into submission to China by that. Good way to go if the US wishes to dwarfen itself for the rest of this century.


Empires must act. They cannot afford to act not.

[Mr Quatro]

President Trump has already stated that he does not want war and that if SA wants our help they will have to pay for it.

Which leaves a back door open to Russian offering their latest air defences (for a price of course).

SA has to worry about the rest of their oil production before testing Iran's plan to wipe them out and hear all of Europe yell "Leave Iran's oil productions alone they are all we have left to get through winter"

Which is not true with Russia standing by to ramp up oil production.

Oh what a tangled web we weave

[mapuc]

If as Skybird wrote

"If true, then it is no longer a proxy war, but a full blown direct war."

Then they have gone from supporting their allied in the civil war in Yemen to engage the biggest enemy in this civil war in full scale.

Markus

[Jimbuna]

German Chancellor Angela Merkel has called for a return to the 2015 international deal curbing Iran's nuclear activities as the only way to defuse tensions in the Middle East.https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/...102800973.html

Oh really!

[Catfish]

^ Oh really yes and why not? What has Trump reached applying more and more pressure to make a deal with Iran? Where is it?

Trump has shrunk to a hesitating president, whose foreign political scope further shrinks with the blurring economics.
This escalation in the Middle East is also Trump's crisis. So he aggravated the conflict with Iran getting out of the nuclear deal. He wanted to negotiate a new deal, this was the official doctrine, but never were the USA more far away from negotiating usable results in a dialogue than now. If his plan was to bully, frighten, negotiate and then succeed with a better deal, it has failed completely. As Skybird said the Iranians do not think like that, nor do they let themselves be driven to give in to demands and western ideas by force.

So his options are now limited, apart from the next election which is much more important to him than the US' standing in the world. A war with Iran would further accelerate the oil price development, which is already on the rise. Trump wants to evade a recession in the election year, but it is his own fault causing the economical ruckus, from Europe to China. He has harrasssed international trade so long with threats and taxes that the US economical growth finally gave in. If there will be a wave of lay-offs in the election year …

So he is a bit more reluctant now and sends cautious messages to the german automotive industry, there are suddenly negotiations in China about a new trade treaty "forgetting" taxes, and one of the hawks (Bolton) has been fired. But diplomacy is complicated as the whole world, and destroying it was easy. Generating trust will take decades.

[Catfish]

Bad translation by Google

https://translate.google.com/transla...a-1287091.html

[mapuc]

Has to add something to my last comment

Sanction or embargo would not be enough, if the attack in SA came from Iran.

The question is:

Will SA wait until the UN have finished their investigation or will they attack as soon as possible

Or will USA conduct this attack on Iran by them self ?

Markus

[Mr Quatro]

US Congress (controlled by democrats) urging caution and demand to be included in any war strike plans.

I wonder if Iran knew this all along no quick strike means more time for Iran to bluff their way out by saying we will finish SA off if you come against us?

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Mr Quatro

SA has to worry about the rest of their oil production before testing Iran's plan to wipe them out and hear all of Europe yell "Leave Iran's oil productions alone they are all we have left to get through winter"

That is NOT an issue at all, the EU does not import such decisive amounts of oil from either Iran or SA.

https://de.statista.com/statistik/da...nach-herkunft/

Germany for itself imports its oil from 3 dozen different nations. 2016 it got no oil from either SA or Iran. Our main suppliers were and are Russia (39% in 2016), Norway (11%) and the UK (10%). Kazachstan and Azerbaidschan already trail behind a bit, Algeria, Nigeria and Iraq trail even more clearly.

Iran will get away with this, I think, and with even further provocations they will get away as well. The Europeans are impotent, the Saudis without the US cannot chew the bite that a war with Iran would mean if they retaliate in full, and the US is unwilling to retaliate. Maybe a limited smybolic one-time strike by SA and US forces, and thats it.

The Iranians have learned a lot from Putin. But sly they already were before. This standoff will become another strategic defeat in a long string of defeats for the West in the recent two decades. Fighting the wrong wars, and fighting these in the wrong manner, and not fighting those that should be fought. The Iran story should have dropped from the headlines already 15 years ago. But then the concerned rose their heads, and the wavering and the indifferent, and so now we are where we are.

A wise man fights his enemies while they are still small and weak, he does not wait until they have grown strong.

[Rockstar]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

Oh really!

Im a little confused. Is Aunty Merkle speaking on behalf of the EU or Germany? How exactly does the power structure work over there who speaks for whom?

[mapuc]

I turn it around so to say

Which country is Iran selling their oil to ?

From what I understand they sell most of their oil to

India, China, Turkey and some other countries-third world countries

When I saw the word China on the wiki-page

I knew directly they would vote no to any steps in the UN if a UN-supported action against Iran is planned.

Markus

[Onkel Neal]

Originally Posted by mapuc

Has to add something to my last comment

Sanction or embargo would not be enough, if the attack in SA came from Iran.

The question is:

Will SA wait until the UN have finished their investigation or will they attack as soon as possible

Or will USA conduct this attack on Iran by them self ?

Markus

Why would we do it? It was an attack on Saudi Arabia, let them hit back. Aren't they men? Why does the US have to do the heavy lifting all the time?

[Mr Quatro]

Originally Posted by Onkel Neal

Why would we do it? It was an attack on Saudi Arabia, let them hit back. Aren't they men? Why does the US have to do the heavy lifting all the time?

Take Israel and Russia and other suspicious nations off the list too ...

If Iran didn't do it why don't they help find out who did?

One more clue this is a religeous war about how to serve their God