Venezuela sliding into anarchy - Page 4

ikalugin · 05-01-19, 03:55 AM

https://russianmilitaryanalysis.word...rand-strategy/
May be of interest in the context of alleged Russian participation in the whole Venezuela crisis.

mapuc · 05-01-19, 11:30 AM

In the news at 4, I heard the minister of foreign affairs in USA saying USA are prepared to intervene military in Venezuela if needed.

If my memory doesn't play tricks on me, I seem to remember I made a thread about that.

Markus

ikalugin · 05-01-19, 01:12 PM

Well that would be music to our ears.

Rockstar · 05-01-19, 04:13 PM

I do believe it was the Venezuelan National Assembly, not the U.S., which declared Guaido president. The list of countries supporting that decision continues to grow. If Russia wants to spend the resources to support Maduro, go for it. But I think it would be a losing battle to do so.

ikalugin · 05-01-19, 04:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rockstar

I do believe it was the Venezuelan National Assembly, not the U.S., which declared Guaido president. The list of countries supporting that decision continues to grow. If Russia wants to spend the resources to support Maduro, go for it. But I think it would be a losing battle to do so.

Well, if you believe that they had the legitimate authority to do so, sure.

The point I was making was that should US be stuck in a local conflict in Venezuela for the next 15 years, should Brazil suddenly be in need for weapons we can sell them, well, you know how we would feel about it.

A little nudge here and there with advisors, a little buisness or two not being bothered by the authorities for working there for profit can't really harm us.

mapuc · 05-01-19, 04:56 PM

I think I have mentioned it before.

If I was Maduro I would ask Mr. Putin to send some "Military advisor" to his country.

I would be a little nervous about the possibility USA intervene my country, ´cause I know my own military would be no match them.

By inviting Russian military, the chance of an intervention of my country would be low.

I know my imagination have run wild.

Markus

ikalugin · 05-01-19, 05:22 PM

We have already sent some inspection teams to accertain what is actually happening with his forces, in addition to routine stuff related to their previous arms purchases.

I doubt there would be any major operation.

em2nought · 05-01-19, 06:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ikalugin

We have already sent some inspection teams to accertain what is actually happening with his forces

The sad part of this new liberal democrat cold war brought on by the fact that Russia is predominately "old white men who aren't communist anymore" is probably that if the USA had one last chance at really successful nation and ally building, helping Russia out some was probably it.

A strong Russian Republic, would have been a nice ally to have. Emphasis on "Republic".

Rockstar · 05-01-19, 06:40 PM

Considering we and others in the global community recognize the Venezuelan National Assembly constitutional authority I think we're prepared to go the distance. Not wanting to seem as though I under estimate Russian will and perseverance as it does very good job at throwing its weight around in its own geopolitical sphere. Contrary to what our own media has been spewing since 2016 Russia just isn't the world power it once was and it really can't afford to start a proxy war in my back yard.

vienna · 05-01-19, 07:00 PM

Your backyards in Venezuela? Damn, that must make gardening a bit of a bitch...

<O>

Skybird · 05-01-19, 07:49 PM

The volume and quality of the Russian military engagement in Venezuela varies widely, according to the media you listen to. It ranges rom "just some advisors" to "several thousand combat troops." Between these two descriptions, everything seems possible to be the truth.

Russia hardly plans to fight a hard war over there, but it wants to keep a foot in the door and wants to stir unrest and destabilization - right because it is the US backyard. Being an itching point that the US cannot scratch - thats what it is about. Also, Russia has made quite some financial investments in Venezuela.

Anyway, I do not care for their interests - the economic dilettante Maduro has completed the task begun by the other dilettante Chavez - to ruin the country completely and annihilate what was left of its economy. He must be replaced, in any way, and whether Putin likes that or not, must not matter. Problem is that the military leadership benefits directly from supporting the Maduro regime, the generals are quite corrupt and private financial interests are what rules their loyalty. The US is not so much liked in South America, it is probably best advise to recommend self moderation else relations to other SA countries may worsten as well. A military campaign by the US I would only consider if Russia goes into that direction as well - but then in overwhelming strength and decisevely. I dont think anyone wants that - not in Washington, and not in Moscow.

ikalugin · 05-02-19, 05:17 AM

Well, Iraq wasn't a proxy war between Russia and USA yet USA got stuck there for a long time. And I doubt that Lybia style scenario is preferable either.

As to our participation - apart from inspection teams (so that we know what is actually happening there, taking the locals word at face value sounds like a bad idea) and the teams on the old procurement contracts (ie when they got their SAMs they got a training team to go with them) we would probably turn a blind eye to any enterprising private entities going there as long as they do not go against Russian interests.
The later group could be quite numerous depending on how much money Maduro can gather.

Rockstar · 05-02-19, 08:42 AM

I've heard a plane was waiting on the tarmac ready to fly Maduro out. The delay I think is Russia scrambling to lawyer up and legally protect their financial investments. But rumors of a proxy war with Russian weapons, surface to air missiles and advisors? Highly highly doubtful like I said Russia isn't stupid. A relatively stable Venezuelan government and economy is the solution that benefits all parties and most importantly Venezuelans. That's the direction it needs to go and will go.

Maduro drove the Venezuelan economy into the dirt rigged an election and the National Assembly voted and said adios Maduro Na na na na, na na na na, hey hey hey, goodbye

Mr Quatro · 05-02-19, 09:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by em2nought

The sad part of this new liberal democrat cold war brought on by the fact that Russia is predominately "old white men who aren't communist anymore" is probably that if the USA had one last chance at really successful nation and ally building, helping Russia out some was probably it.

A strong Russian Republic, would have been a nice ally to have. Emphasis on "Republic".

It's just a chess game to Russia (spelled Putin)

Venezuela
US Politics
Syrian conflict
Africa
Artic
Bombers flying close to San Francisco
Fighter jets buzzing USN ships

ikalugin · 05-02-19, 10:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rockstar

I've heard a plane was waiting on the tarmac ready to fly Maduro out.

And you are sure that this was not a PSYOP move to undermine Maduro's efforts?

Quote:

But rumors of a proxy war with Russian weapons, surface to air missiles and advisors? Highly highly doubtful like I said Russia isn't stupid

Those are already there, we have sold plenty of weapons there.

05-01-19, 03:55 AM	#46
ikalugin Ocean Warrior Join Date: Aug 2014 Location: Moscow, Russia Posts: 3,212 Downloads: 8 Uploads: 0	https://russianmilitaryanalysis.word...rand-strategy/ May be of interest in the context of alleged Russian participation in the whole Venezuela crisis. __________________ Grumpy as always.

05-01-19, 01:12 PM	#48
ikalugin Ocean Warrior Join Date: Aug 2014 Location: Moscow, Russia Posts: 3,212 Downloads: 8 Uploads: 0	Well that would be music to our ears. __________________ Grumpy as always.

05-01-19, 05:22 PM	#52
ikalugin Ocean Warrior Join Date: Aug 2014 Location: Moscow, Russia Posts: 3,212 Downloads: 8 Uploads: 0	We have already sent some inspection teams to accertain what is actually happening with his forces, in addition to routine stuff related to their previous arms purchases. I doubt there would be any major operation. __________________ Grumpy as always.

05-01-19, 06:40 PM	#54
Rockstar In the Brig Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: Zendia Bar & Grill Posts: 12,614 Downloads: 10 Uploads: 0	Considering we and others in the global community recognize the Venezuelan National Assembly constitutional authority I think we're prepared to go the distance. Not wanting to seem as though I under estimate Russian will and perseverance as it does very good job at throwing its weight around in its own geopolitical sphere. Contrary to what our own media has been spewing since 2016 Russia just isn't the world power it once was and it really can't afford to start a proxy war in my back yard. Last edited by Rockstar; 05-01-19 at 06:57 PM.

05-01-19, 07:00 PM	#55
vienna Navy Seal Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Anywhere but the here & now... Posts: 7,711 Downloads: 85 Uploads: 0	Your backyards in Venezuela? Damn, that must make gardening a bit of a bitch... <O> __________________ __________________________________________________ __

05-01-19, 11:30 AM	#47
mapuc CINC Pacific Fleet Join Date: Sep 2003 Location: Denmark Posts: 20,537 Downloads: 37 Uploads: 0	In the news at 4, I heard the minister of foreign affairs in USA saying USA are prepared to intervene military in Venezuela if needed. If my memory doesn't play tricks on me, I seem to remember I made a thread about that. Markus

05-01-19, 04:13 PM	#49
Rockstar In the Brig Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: Zendia Bar & Grill Posts: 12,614 Downloads: 10 Uploads: 0	I do believe it was the Venezuelan National Assembly, not the U.S., which declared Guaido president. The list of countries supporting that decision continues to grow. If Russia wants to spend the resources to support Maduro, go for it. But I think it would be a losing battle to do so.

05-01-19, 04:56 PM	#51
mapuc CINC Pacific Fleet Join Date: Sep 2003 Location: Denmark Posts: 20,537 Downloads: 37 Uploads: 0	I think I have mentioned it before. If I was Maduro I would ask Mr. Putin to send some "Military advisor" to his country. I would be a little nervous about the possibility USA intervene my country, ´cause I know my own military would be no match them. By inviting Russian military, the chance of an intervention of my country would be low. I know my imagination have run wild. Markus

05-01-19, 07:49 PM	#56
Skybird Soaring Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: the mental asylum named Germany Posts: 42,621 Downloads: 10 Uploads: 0	The volume and quality of the Russian military engagement in Venezuela varies widely, according to the media you listen to. It ranges rom "just some advisors" to "several thousand combat troops." Between these two descriptions, everything seems possible to be the truth. Russia hardly plans to fight a hard war over there, but it wants to keep a foot in the door and wants to stir unrest and destabilization - right because it is the US backyard. Being an itching point that the US cannot scratch - thats what it is about. Also, Russia has made quite some financial investments in Venezuela. Anyway, I do not care for their interests - the economic dilettante Maduro has completed the task begun by the other dilettante Chavez - to ruin the country completely and annihilate what was left of its economy. He must be replaced, in any way, and whether Putin likes that or not, must not matter. Problem is that the military leadership benefits directly from supporting the Maduro regime, the generals are quite corrupt and private financial interests are what rules their loyalty. The US is not so much liked in South America, it is probably best advise to recommend self moderation else relations to other SA countries may worsten as well. A military campaign by the US I would only consider if Russia goes into that direction as well - but then in overwhelming strength and decisevely. I dont think anyone wants that - not in Washington, and not in Moscow. __________________ If you feel nuts, consult an expert. Last edited by Skybird; 05-01-19 at 08:00 PM.

05-02-19, 05:17 AM	#57
ikalugin Ocean Warrior Join Date: Aug 2014 Location: Moscow, Russia Posts: 3,212 Downloads: 8 Uploads: 0	Well, Iraq wasn't a proxy war between Russia and USA yet USA got stuck there for a long time. And I doubt that Lybia style scenario is preferable either. As to our participation - apart from inspection teams (so that we know what is actually happening there, taking the locals word at face value sounds like a bad idea) and the teams on the old procurement contracts (ie when they got their SAMs they got a training team to go with them) we would probably turn a blind eye to any enterprising private entities going there as long as they do not go against Russian interests. The later group could be quite numerous depending on how much money Maduro can gather. __________________ Grumpy as always.

05-02-19, 08:42 AM	#58
Rockstar In the Brig Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: Zendia Bar & Grill Posts: 12,614 Downloads: 10 Uploads: 0	I've heard a plane was waiting on the tarmac ready to fly Maduro out. The delay I think is Russia scrambling to lawyer up and legally protect their financial investments. But rumors of a proxy war with Russian weapons, surface to air missiles and advisors? Highly highly doubtful like I said Russia isn't stupid. A relatively stable Venezuelan government and economy is the solution that benefits all parties and most importantly Venezuelans. That's the direction it needs to go and will go. Maduro drove the Venezuelan economy into the dirt rigged an election and the National Assembly voted and said adios Maduro Na na na na, na na na na, hey hey hey, goodbye Last edited by Rockstar; 05-02-19 at 09:00 AM.