"The Russian Navy is on the verge of collapse"

Jimbuna · 01-19-15, 02:41 PM

The sanctions by the west may not be all that effective but medium to long term I should imagine they will have some bearing on matters, especially when added to the reduction in oil revenues.

ikalugin · 01-19-15, 03:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

The sanctions by the west may not be all that effective but medium to long term I should imagine they will have some bearing on matters, especially when added to the reduction in oil revenues.

The decrease in oil revenues do hurt the budget, but not critically so, mainly because we were trying to avoid budget deficit for a long time (and kept building up reserves).

Jimbuna · 01-19-15, 03:31 PM

So will Putin slow down the modernisation of the armed forces or let other areas of the economy suffer as a result of spending money Russia doesn't have or could be better spent elsewhere such as on social improvements, healthcare etc?

ikalugin · 01-19-15, 03:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

So will Putin slow down the modernisation of the armed forces or let other areas of the economy suffer as a result of spending money Russia doesn't have or could be better spent elsewhere such as on social improvements, healthcare etc?

I think what would be done is keeping the defence sector at about the same level of funding (in rubles), while providing state reserves (in foreign currency) for any critical items that they would need.

All the while de regulating the rest of the economy and decreasing the state presence there. One way to do this would be partial privatisation of state owned corporations for example.

But to be honest I really don't think that Russia would cut defensive spending by a large margin. That said the actual programs would be shifted right, because the way those programs are funded is only partially in advance pay - the rest is funded by the companies themselves via loans (which are later repayed by the companies when they complete the contact), even though those loans come with government guarantees, the state of our financial system is less than perfect.

mapuc · 01-19-15, 04:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

The sanctions by the west may not be all that effective but medium to long term I should imagine they will have some bearing on matters, especially when added to the reduction in oil revenues.

Funny you mention that, about 30 minutes ago they sad on Danish News

"The Sanction is working to well, the EU are afraid that Russia may collapse"

Markus

ikalugin · 01-19-15, 05:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mapuc

Funny you mention that, about 30 minutes ago they sad on Danish News

"The Sanction is working to well, the EU are afraid that Russia may collapse"

Markus

I would say that it is a bit of wishful thinking on their part.

Oberon · 01-19-15, 10:26 PM

It did strike me that the article was a tad...shall we say OTT when it comes to its viewpoint on Russian vessels. The Kuznetsov is not a young man, but I doubt he is ready to 'sink' as it claims that he is.

In regards to the effects on the upgrade program that the current troubles the Russian economy is having will have, I agree with ikalugin, I can't see much of the groundwork being too badly affected, in some instances the employment producing new warships could, in fact, be a bonus and provide much needed work. However, it's a case of infrastructure restructuring from the Pact days where some critical industries were outside of Russia itself, such as in the Ukraine or in the space agencies case, in Kazakhstan. But Russia has got a lot of land, so getting the industries on hand shouldn't be a problem, it's just a matter of time really.

It's a bit like the PRC, despite the 'red scare' that occasionally pops up in the US, the Peoples Liberation Army Navy is in no fit shape to take on the USN, even if their DF-21Ds are as accurate as they claim (which I have my doubts). They need to build up a trifectre of anti-ship weaponry (SSGNs, air launched ASMs and the ASICBMs) so that they can overwhelm the US anti-missile defences, AND have the carriers in order to back up any action they have planned outside of Chinas current borders (aka Taiwan), so we're probably looking at the USN being fairly undisputed naval masters until into the early 2020s.

That's when things will get interesting...hopefully by then Britain might even have a navy too!

ikalugin · 01-20-15, 03:26 AM

Kuznetsov does suffer from powerplant problems (which limit the top speed), but those come from the fact that it did not complete even a single repair/docking cycle.

Oberon · 01-20-15, 08:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ikalugin

Kuznetsov does suffer from powerplant problems (which limit the top speed), but those come from the fact that it did not complete even a single repair/docking cycle.

Exactly, even the best ship is going to have problems if he's not had the right amount of time in dock. Still, hopefully that'll be fixed soon.

ikalugin · 01-20-15, 10:36 PM

At least it is not as bad as with the pr.956 destroyers - their power plant is not known to age well, especially if poorly maintained, and this essentially immobilised most of those ships.

On the contrary - pr.1155 ships are fairly reliable and available for missions. Hence probably why there is some speculation about the pr.1155 refit rather than pr.956 refit (having better sonar and helicopter hangar does help).

01-19-15, 02:41 PM	#1
Jimbuna Chief of the Boat Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: 250 metres below the surface Posts: 190,615 Downloads: 63 Uploads: 13	The sanctions by the west may not be all that effective but medium to long term I should imagine they will have some bearing on matters, especially when added to the reduction in oil revenues. __________________ Wise men speak because they have something to say; Fools because they have to say something. Oh my God, not again!!

01-19-15, 03:31 PM	#3
Jimbuna Chief of the Boat Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: 250 metres below the surface Posts: 190,615 Downloads: 63 Uploads: 13	So will Putin slow down the modernisation of the armed forces or let other areas of the economy suffer as a result of spending money Russia doesn't have or could be better spent elsewhere such as on social improvements, healthcare etc? __________________ Wise men speak because they have something to say; Fools because they have to say something. Oh my God, not again!!

01-19-15, 10:26 PM	#7
Oberon Lucky Jack Join Date: Jul 2002 Posts: 25,976 Downloads: 61 Uploads: 20	It did strike me that the article was a tad...shall we say OTT when it comes to its viewpoint on Russian vessels. The Kuznetsov is not a young man, but I doubt he is ready to 'sink' as it claims that he is. In regards to the effects on the upgrade program that the current troubles the Russian economy is having will have, I agree with ikalugin, I can't see much of the groundwork being too badly affected, in some instances the employment producing new warships could, in fact, be a bonus and provide much needed work. However, it's a case of infrastructure restructuring from the Pact days where some critical industries were outside of Russia itself, such as in the Ukraine or in the space agencies case, in Kazakhstan. But Russia has got a lot of land, so getting the industries on hand shouldn't be a problem, it's just a matter of time really. It's a bit like the PRC, despite the 'red scare' that occasionally pops up in the US, the Peoples Liberation Army Navy is in no fit shape to take on the USN, even if their DF-21Ds are as accurate as they claim (which I have my doubts). They need to build up a trifectre of anti-ship weaponry (SSGNs, air launched ASMs and the ASICBMs) so that they can overwhelm the US anti-missile defences, AND have the carriers in order to back up any action they have planned outside of Chinas current borders (aka Taiwan), so we're probably looking at the USN being fairly undisputed naval masters until into the early 2020s. That's when things will get interesting...hopefully by then Britain might even have a navy too!

01-20-15, 03:26 AM	#8
ikalugin Ocean Warrior Join Date: Aug 2014 Location: Moscow, Russia Posts: 3,212 Downloads: 8 Uploads: 0	Kuznetsov does suffer from powerplant problems (which limit the top speed), but those come from the fact that it did not complete even a single repair/docking cycle.

01-20-15, 10:36 PM	#10
ikalugin Ocean Warrior Join Date: Aug 2014 Location: Moscow, Russia Posts: 3,212 Downloads: 8 Uploads: 0	At least it is not as bad as with the pr.956 destroyers - their power plant is not known to age well, especially if poorly maintained, and this essentially immobilised most of those ships. On the contrary - pr.1155 ships are fairly reliable and available for missions. Hence probably why there is some speculation about the pr.1155 refit rather than pr.956 refit (having better sonar and helicopter hangar does help).