Mittelwaechter, what you suggest seems very probable. The storm was definitely more than 10m/s at the time. And with not too deep target draft, it is no wonder why there wasn't a "sweet spot" depth that would allow torpedoes to run without failing, and still being shallow enough not to bounce off the target.
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Let me rephrase... it has been my experience that range has very little effect on the solution. generally speaking i have found that the TDC range only has to be your best guess +/- several hundred meters at best. This margin of error increases with range, but i have found, as long as you are within +/- 2000 meters range has little effect on the solution
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Out of pure interest, why is that, exactly, this little effect? Because theoretically, range shouldn't matter at all, at least to my knowledge of trigonometry. Does it have something to do with torpedo acceleration to it's cruise speed after launch? Or maybe it's due to torpedo slowing down due to lesser charge in it's batteries? (not sure it's simulated)
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I am familiar with it, and so far as SH3 goes, there is nothing wrong with it, That is the beauty of SH3... you are quite free to play the game as you wish... i honestly dont think anything of it... however from a point of view of strategy and tactics, it will become an increasingly difficult method to use against a convoy when compared to the use of the TDC to calculate a proper solution against a target from virtually any attack position. the 90° method of attack will simply become harder to execute as the war progresses. unless the player intends only on attacking merchants sailing alone after say... late 1942, early 1943.
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I believe you. It's only that in early war, with Type IIB, I can't really find any convoys in my patrol area. Anyway, IIB is so slow and has such poor submerged range, so little torpedoes, that it doesn't make sense to go around Britain islands, possibly exhausting fuel supply... I just try to make some reasonable renown by sinking tramp steamers and medium cargo ships to get a new u-boat.
By the way, in late August, 1939, days before start of the war, I found a HUGE convoy of heavy steel - destroyers, battleships and so on - sailing towards Germany from England. No cargo ships. Just war machines. That was some monstrous firepower, cruising at around 15 knots. Maybe I could have sunk one (there were good conditions), but England was still neutral...
Just saying. It's amazing that the game has historical ship routes. Or it seems so - it's logical that England would send a fleet of destroyers towards Germany in the eve of the war.
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I will point out though that when you are 90 degrees to the target's course, and the target is moving right to left as in this scenario, and when they are on a 7-8 degree bearing the AOB is most definitely NOT 90° its probably like somewhere around 79°
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That's correct, I'm aware of that. By the definition of the method, 90° angle should be at the torpedo impact point, NOT on the point of launch.
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BTW, I suspect that Mittelwaechter's comment in Post #27 is the most likely explanation of your problem. Notice that GoldenRivet does not use H.sie's patcher, so he would not experience torpedo failures in bad weather. This woyuld explain why his replays of your attacks were successful, while yours, with the patch, were not. In your case, the torpedo wake would pass right through the target, but there would be no impact and no detonation, because the torpedo would be running at 25m. This seems to fit all the facts. Try turning the Torpedo Failure Fix patch off. Of course, you will have to deactivate Supplement to V16B1 before you turn off the patch, then reactivate it. This will require creating another engagement for test purposes.
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This seems very logical. After all, I used this attack method dozens of times with great success. And even if there was a tiny error in these measurements, at this distance and size of the target, it shouldn't matter. I guess the storm is to blame. Next time, I'll have to stick with magnetics, since they can run deeper, or just follow the target until weather clears up.
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I am sorry that you changed your activated mods list without realizing the consequences. I just assumed that you would know that you have to restart the patrol. Please accept my apology for the inconvenience I caused you.
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There is nothing to apologize for

This was the second patrol of the career, only one tramp steamer sunk. No big deal. It was way more important to find out why the attack fails in general, rather than to succeed this particular attack. Ruling out mod interference was important. I restarted the patrol from the save in harbor. No harm done.
So, I guess the mystery is solved. No way to check it, but it's the only theory that fits the facts. Thank you all very much for your help.
P.S. GoldenRivet, you said you acquired all necessary info for attack in time it took for target to move 3 degrees. I wonder how. You said that range is estimated visually. Stadimeter, or just eye-ball guess?
Speed - did you use hydrophone to calculate propeller revolutions, or again, educated guess?
AOB is most interesting. How did you go about that? I always have a problem estimating AOB without drawing a lot of stuff on the map, which takes time - so I assume you have some faster way to do it?
Please, share your methods