An interesting development

[Oberon]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

The NK once shot down a civilian airliner so why should the Chinese be different?

I wouldn't want to put that to the test.

It would create too many waves for them, rock the boat too much. China is pretty smart at knowing just how far to push something, and it would be massively bad publicity for the cause if they were to shoot down a civilian airliner.

Originally Posted by Skybird

The carriers should therefore refuse to fly there and their homenations should ban Chinese carriers operating in their airspaces.

The Japanese operate fighters in the region now, not only EW. The Japanese flights shadowed by the Chinese, were 4 recce planes and 6 fighters.

The Chinese have seen recent political changes, that include a party-wanted drive in nationalism. They feel themselves strong enough, maybe they are drunk of themselves, but still they feel themselves strong. Recall the sky plane jncident from 7 or 8 years ago. Their self-confidence has not shrunk since then. And their ambitions in the region are such that they cannot accept to come out second in the race for those sea areas.

I fear it is a confrontation that most likely is set to turn hot one day.

You're putting national pride before money, do you seriously think businesses would do that?

Perhaps some elements of the party are drunk with power, but I doubt that the upper levels are, they know that they are still balancing their whole nation on the growth level of the economy which is gradually slowing down. A war right now with a major power (aka the US) would break the economy and create a second revolution from the far-left groups. There's a lot of folk in the rural regions of China that could be mobilised against the city powerbases if the Maoists got enough power behind them.

I could, however, see an incident happening. Most likely a collision, and this will raise tensions in the area even higher, especially if the Japanese or American crew survive and are taken prisoner by the PRC. I also can't rule out some hotshot jock accidentally getting overexcited and lobbing off a missile, especially if two groups of fighters start playing chicken with each other, which they likely will.