Japanese Embassy under attack by the Chinese

[eddie]

Looks like attacking embassies is the newest fad! At least it isn't an American one this time!

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/49044938...-asia_pacific/

[Jimbuna]

This has the potential of escalating into something really serious, the Chinese will know Japan are no match for them but that in turn could bring the US in on the Japanese side....most worrying

[soopaman2]

Japan has only a defense force (Because of us) so it is our obligation to defend them in the case this escalates. I would rather fight for a Japanese citizen who thinks we are OK, and leave us alone, than some Afghani or Iraqi weasel who smiles in our face by day, and plants IEDs by night.

China would have never have done this if we (allies) have not completely neutered them post WW2.

I am no warhawk, but there is such a thing as a just cause. (first Gulf war for instance.)

[Takeda Shingen]

How much you wanna bet that protest was government-sponsored. Oh, and have we located the president-elect yet? Because, you know, that's not at all disconcerting.

[Jimbuna]

Originally Posted by soopaman2

Japan has only a defense force (Because of us) so it is our obligation to defend them in the case this escalates. I would rather fight for a Japanese citizen who thinks we are OK, and leave us alone, than some Afghani or Iraqi weasel who smiles in our face by day, and plants IEDs by night.

China would have never have done this if we (allies) have not completely neutered them post WW2.

I am no warhawk, but there is such a thing as a just cause. (first Gulf war for instance.)

Well any escalation to combat would be in the Chinese backyard and I hope I'm wrong but that may well give them the upperhand.

This is all hypothetical rhetoric of course (at least from me anyhow).

[Oberon]

This has been going on for about two months now, if not longer, and it boils down primarily to the Senkaku islands. Now, anyone who thinks only the Muslims get nutjobs in power should take a look at Tokyos current mayor, Ishihara, who has had such memorable quotes as:

"old women who live after they have lost their reproductive function are useless and are committing a sin"

"Roppongi is now virtually a foreign neighborhood. Africans — I don't mean African-Americans — who don't speak English are there doing who knows what. This is leading to new forms of crime such as car theft. We should be letting in people who are intelligent."

(In regards to Korean comfort women) "Where is the proof that Japanese forced them to do this? It was an era of poverty, these women grudgingly turned to the only trade they could make money in, prostitution.”

He also announced plans whilst in the US to buy the Senkaku islands for Tokyo (thankfully it seems that fell through), and then, perhaps inspired by Ishihara, a group of 'Taiwanese' raised the PRC flag whilst near the islands and escorted by Taiwanese coast guard vessels which then had a few close quarter maneuvers with Japanese coast guard vessels as the latter tried to board the protestors boat and failed.
The next month another group of Chinese from Hong Kong landed on the island, threw bricks as Japanese coast guard vessels that came near them and raised the flags of both the PRC and ROC. They were arrested by Japan, but deported without charge back to Hong Kong where they received a heroes welcome.
Angered by the Japanese governments refusal to charge the Chinese protesters, a group of Japanese organised a small flotilla which sailed near the islands to commemorate the Japanese dead from WWII, whilst they were there a group of Japanese swum ashore and hoisted the Japanese flag there. That promptly set off anti-Japanese protests in about twenty-five Chinese cities that have been going on since August and are, if not encouraged by, certainly not prevented by the Chinese government.
There have been similar protests but in a smaller scale in Japan, but it's not likely to come to an armed conflict any time soon, just the continuation of the status quo, protests, stunts and fishing vessel rammings.

[Oberon]

Originally Posted by soopaman2

I would rather fight for a Japanese citizen who thinks we are OK, and leave us alone

Admittedly, it's nowhere near the scale of Afghanistan and Iraq, but certainly the US isn't quite as welcomed as they used to be. The same thing is happening in Korea, as more of the older generation pass on, they forget the war, and things like the old 'stabbed in the back myth' (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stab-in-the-back_myth) become popular amongst the youth, and the nationalist feelings reawaken.
I am wary of Japan, there is a lot about WWII that they still deny or try to cover up, the school book scandal of a few years ago shows that, and let's not get started on Nanking. I think the whole issue over the Yasukuni Shrine is a bit daft, but there's still a LOT of hatred in the local area and while I don't think it'll boil over into war in this decade, it does mean that another conflict in the Pacific could occur within the century.

[Skybird]

The Chinese are on a shopping tour in that region since some time, it seems. wanting to mark claims by shifting international sea borders, or claiming islands theirs by claims whose legal status at best is questionable.

If Japan folds here, it signals that in case of confrontation it will fall back. So the Chrinese will become encouraged to raise additonal demands later on, even more since the whole region is looking at how Japan reacts.

Australia will be a very interestzed observer, Im sure, having a weak defence capacity but still sitting on the outer fence to the neighbourhood of this big and bullying neighbvour in the other contient. And it has both some tasty trade contrracts with other nations in the region, and some own ressources as well, that both make some seductive prey.

Japan must hold out in this confrontation - and the other nations in the region should support it, no matter what - in their very own interest. Else anybody can become the next mobbing victim.

[TLAM Strike]

Originally Posted by jimbuna

This has the potential of escalating into something really serious, the Chinese will know Japan are no match for them but that in turn could bring the US in on the Japanese side....most worrying

I don't think the Chinese are crazy enough to risk this going too far and provoking a nation as technologically advanced as Japan (a producer of nuclear energy). There is always the risk of Japan having a secret "ace in the hole".

[Rhodes]

Originally Posted by TLAM Strike

I don't think the Chinese are crazy enough to risk this going too far and provoking a nation as technologically advanced as Japan (a producer of nuclear energy). There is always the risk of Japan having a secret "ace in the hole".

More incline to this that Japan not being a match for the chinese. It may not be in numbers, but the technology and fighting spirit of the japonese is something to be consider.

[Oberon]

Japan has already folded a couple of times, China is probably looking to squeeze every bit of political leverage out of this that they can. It's also useful for them to have a common foe to rally the people against as the economic crisis begins to bite the Chinese economy.

In terms of actual warfare...not likely, Japan is a big trading partner with China IIRC and the PRC wouldn't want to risk their trade, nor would they want to push the delicate Asian markets into freefall whilst their economy is in the transition stage from a pure export into a balanced export/import economy.

Tak also has a good point, has anyone seen Xi Jinping? He seems to have vanished which is not good news, last thing we need is an internal power struggle in the PRC.

[Cybermat47]

Frederick Uncle Charles Kate!

[Jimbuna]

Originally Posted by TLAM Strike

I don't think the Chinese are crazy enough to risk this going too far and provoking a nation as technologically advanced as Japan (a producer of nuclear energy). There is always the risk of Japan having a secret "ace in the hole".

If you mean Japan may have nuclear weapons not only do I doubt it but that would be suicide for them given the size of the Chinese nuclear arsenal.

[TLAM Strike]

Originally Posted by jimbuna

If you mean Japan may have nuclear weapons not only do I doubt it but that would be suicide for them given the size of the Chinese nuclear arsenal.

The size of China's nuclear arsenal? The one of only about 150-200 warheads? Considering that China's boomers have never even been to sea a 1st strike taking out their offensive missiles is still a possibility. Japan is also very interested in ABM, operating both the PAC-3 and SM-3. JAXA also has some very nice space launch vehicles that not only can be derived in to ICBMs but could put munitions in to orbit.

[Skybird]

Japan was assessed eartlier this year to have the capability to build a usable nuclear warhead within 3-4 months, if needed. Whioch is no surprise, since it is a hightech nation, has all the knowledge and computers, and nuclear powerplants en masse.

I would not be surprised to learnt that in the past ten yeras or so, due to the rise of China, they already have secretly build some nuclear warheads, like I think the Brasilians also have done.

The Japanese forces may be small, but they surely have some hightech in their inventory - anything else would be a surprise for such a tech-junky nation like Japan. Training standard of their personell I never have read about, but I hope it is better than the security trainings they have in their zoos. A special characteristic of the Japanese forces is that legally it is a civilian body, and thus members can resign just at any time they want, and the industry seriously causes personell drian on the arme dfofrces by offering capable young men better payed jobs and careers. I thus do not take a high performance level in the Japanese forces as granted. And I do not compare it to the codes and self-understanding of the Imperial Japanese army of WWII.

The status of the military is under heavy dispute in Japan, a majority of the population seems to be strictly against a "regular status" army. Already renaming the defence ministry in 2007 caused some very heavy public disputes.

So, the critical factor in Japan'S military engagement (or lack of), probably is public opinion, to a more serious degree than in any Western country. There seems to be a rift between conservative military circles, and the civil society.

The conflict between US bases and Japanese residents, especially on Okinawa, was in the main about noise (flight operations), and misbehavior and crime committed by US troops: rape and bar fights in the main, also the existence of brothels in the vicinity of US bases.