Cain Reassessing Candidacy Amid New Allegations

[AVGWarhawk]

Originally Posted by vienna

So, perhaps, the key here is to vote for the candidate who lies the best?...

Or who gets away with it!

[Bilge_Rat]

To me its pretty clear that Romney will be the GOP nominee and the Obama campaign has come to same conclusion.

Can Romney win the general election? I think he has a good shot. It's probably 50/50 at this point. We are still 11 months away, anything can happen.

What is crystal clear though is that Cain has no chance to win (if he ever had one) and that Gingrich is a long shot at most.

Gingrich may have the intelligence, but he has way too much baggage. Without getting into his lobbying activities, just the fact that he was cheating on his 2nd wife with his now 3rd wife, while he was driving the Clinton impeachment along (for adultery) gives endless fodder for negative stories/ads.

[mookiemookie]

Originally Posted by Bilge_Rat

To me its pretty clear that Romney will be the GOP nominee and the Obama campaign has come to same conclusion.

Can Romney win the general election? I think he has a good shot. It's probably 50/50 at this point. We are still 11 months away, anything can happen.

What is crystal clear though is that Cain has no chance to win (if he ever had one) and that Gingrich is a long shot at most.

Gingrich may have the intelligence, but he has way too much baggage. Without getting into his lobbying activities, just the fact that he was cheating on his 2nd wife with his now 3rd wife, while he was driving the Clinton impeachment along (for adultery) gives endless fodder for negative stories/ads.

I agree with this assessment. At some point the GOP powers that be need to realize they should run the candidate that gives them the best chance to topple the other guy.

[Platapus]

An Obama/Romney race would hardly be a slam dunk for either of them.

Justified or not, Obama's rankings are sinking and there does not seem to be anything in the near future to give them a big boost and several things that could plummet them even lower faster.

The RNC needs to work on the branding of Romney so that he truly represents the RNC's agenda.

The question will be, as always, will the public think that Romney is significantly better than Obama. Not just different, but better. Romney can't run on an "I am not Obama" platform.

And just like 2008, who the RNC chooses for VP can have a significant impact. Has there been any rumours about who the RNC is considering for VP?

I don't think any of the seven dwarfs would be a good choice with the exception of Huntsman. Although I strongly disagree with some of what Huntsman is saying, I still think he is the best of a mediocre lot.

But Romney will be a good strong candidate and could win this.

It will be interesting to watch those two debate.

[Sea Demon]

Originally Posted by Platapus

An Obama/Romney race would hardly be a slam dunk for either of them.

Justified or not, Obama's rankings are sinking and there does not seem to be anything in the near future to give them a big boost and several things that could plummet them even lower faster.

The RNC needs to work on the branding of Romney so that he truly represents the RNC's agenda.

The question will be, as always, will the public think that Romney is significantly better than Obama. Not just different, but better. Romney can't run on an "I am not Obama" platform.

And just like 2008, who the RNC chooses for VP can have a significant impact. Has there been any rumours about who the RNC is considering for VP?

I don't think any of the seven dwarfs would be a good choice with the exception of Huntsman. Although I strongly disagree with some of what Huntsman is saying, I still think he is the best of a mediocre lot.

But Romney will be a good strong candidate and could win this.

It will be interesting to watch those two debate.

I don't see the independents supporting Obama like they did last time. Obama is a very weak candidate, and has little to nothing to run on. The major thing he got in a lameduck session of Congress (Healthcare law) makes millions of voters mad and energizes his opposition. While I wouldn't like to see Romney, I believe even he could knock off Obama. I think the left pushes him because they believe he represents the best chance for them to win, or if he wins, he is the least threat to their ideology. Romney is not the shoo in for the nomination that everybody thinks he is. There is still plenty of time for his support to wane.

As weak as some of these GOP contenders are, Obama is every bit as weak. And in many ways weaker. It's going to be turnout, and who wins support of the independents. And right now, Obama loses that.

[Platapus]

But, let me remind you of an axiom about elections

For the incumbent to be replaced both of the following must occur

1. The citizens are significantly dissatisfied with the incumbent

and

2. The challenger offers the citizen a significant improvement

We may has state 1 already, but state 2 has not been demonstrated.

This is why the democrats lost in 2004. Most people were dissatisfied with Bush, but the DNC and Kerry did not offer anything significantly better. Running on a "I am not Bush" platform did not get Kerry elected.

Now the tables are switched. The RNC has the advantage of state 1 (perhaps) but state 2 is solely up to them. Remember the Republican party is not exactly enjoying a stellar reputation with the people either.

I am not Obama or even I am not a Democrat probably won't work.

And in elections, ties usually go to the incumbent.

Independents may not want to support Obama, but Independents will not vote for a candidate they don't want. How many Independents and Republicans voted against McCain/Palin last time (raising hand).

This election may be decided not on who the Independents want, but on who the Independents don't want.

Which is a messed up way to run a national election.

[Takeda Shingen]

Originally Posted by Platapus

But, let me remind you of an axiom about elections

For the incumbent to be replaced both of the following must occur

1. The citizens are significantly dissatisfied with the incumbent

and

2. The challenger offers the citizen a significant improvement

We may has state 1 already, but state 2 has not been demonstrated.

This is why the democrats lost in 2004. Most people were dissatisfied with Bush, but the DNC and Kerry did not offer anything significantly better. Running on a "I am not Bush" platform did not get Kerry elected.

Now the tables are switched. The RNC has the advantage of state 1 (perhaps) but state 2 is solely up to them. Remember the Republican party is not exactly enjoying a stellar reputation with the people either.

I am not Obama or even I am not a Democrat probably won't work.

And in elections, ties usually go to the incumbent.

Independents may not want to support Obama, but Independents will not vote for a candidate they don't want. How many Independents and Republicans voted against McCain/Palin last time (raising hand).

This election may be decided not on who the Independents want, but on who the Independents don't want.

Which is a messed up way to run a national election.

I am a registered Republican and my Obama vote was certainly one against McCain/Palin. I can see myself doing exactly the same with this time around, especially given the current field of candidates. Never been one of those 'my party, right or wrong' kind of guys. I already have an ineffective politican in the White House. Why do I want to vote to replace him with another who is beholden to a policy that is just as inflexible and no more effective?

[geetrue]

Originally Posted by Platapus

And just like 2008, who the RNC chooses for VP can have a significant impact. Has there been any rumours about who the RNC is considering for VP?

Not sure if it's up to the RNC ... Romney has already leaked his pick

http://www.nypost.com/p/news/politic...Tc8At8h87qDOLK

[Takeda Shingen]

It's always up to the committee. Once a candidate gets the nomination, he or she doesn't get to use the bathroom without their respective party committee's approval.

[August]

Originally Posted by Platapus

I am not a Democrat probably won't work.

Yeah I agree it won't work in the presidential election but,... given the huge anti-incumbent feeling at the moment it, as well as "I am not a Republican" mantra just might work in the Congressional and Senate races.

[Platapus]

Originally Posted by August

Yeah I agree it won't work in the presidential election but,... given the huge anti-incumbent feeling at the moment it, as well as "I am not a Republican" mantra just might work in the Congressional and Senate races.

Not gonna disagree with you on that one.

As an Election Officer, I expect a lot of write-in votes for "none of these buttheads"

[Platapus]

Originally Posted by geetrue

Not sure if it's up to the RNC ... Romney has already leaked his pick

http://www.nypost.com/p/news/politic...Tc8At8h87qDOLK

Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio.

As a person living in Virginia, I would not want my worst enemy to have McDonnell as their running mate.

Christie? Hmmmm Not a bad choice.

I don't know that much about Rubino. Is he a good guy?

[nikimcbee]

On the flip side, what do you guys think about the DNC getting someone to run against BHO or getting him to step down? Enter HRC

There are more and more news stories regarding this (from the left). What do you think?

[August]

Given the firmness with which he refused to run for president I seriously doubt Christie would be any more interested in being Romney's Veep.

[Takeda Shingen]

Originally Posted by August

Given the firmness with which he refused to run for president I seriously doubt Christie would be any more interested in being Romney's Veep.

Actually, Christie nearly ran after all, only pulling back at the last minute. Local media was all over it down here. I suppose that he saw it as being more potentially damaging in the long run if he were to enter now.