Russia: Israeli threat of strikes on Iran 'a mistake'

[Gerald]

Originally Posted by jimbuna

What do you think?

I can't see Russia going out on a limb for anyone other than themselves!!

So true!

[CCIP]

I decided to go and dig around the Russian media today to see what their position on this might be. Some interesting findings!

This seems to be representative of a moderate, realistic Russian perspective on the situation:

Originally Posted by Lenta.ru

The Russians are hoping for multi-billion contracts in military and nuclear (!) spheres of cooperation, and the Chinese are dependent on Iranian oil exports. Besides, they don't particularly believe the findings of the IAEA, and both Moscow and Beijing are not convinced of the nuclear aggressiveness of Tehran.

But these are traditional allies of Iran. What's more interesting is that the Americans, traditionally having a hard stance on Iran, also don't want to punish Iran too harshly. The reason is the same - money. The US have refused unilateral sanctions against Iran's central bank, as those could affect the global supply of oil. That would cause oil prices to skyrocket, pushing the global economy into the abyss on the edge of which it is now standing. In an election year, Barack Obama would not want a global economic disaster - his chances of getting re-elected are not very high as it is.

[...]

In Israel, they're watching the bloodthirsty proclamations from Tehran about destroying the "Zionist formation". Those kinds of conversations will make anyone nervous. [...] The country's leadership faces a difficult decision: what to do about a neighbour who instead of greeting you says "You don't have long left, you bastard", and in his spare time is busy building a rifle for "peaceful purposes"? The police refuse to do anything - formally, the neighbour is not guilty of anything. Besides, some of the policemen are his friends and business partners. And then, one day it turns out that the neighbour has already completed his rifle and, continuing to seethe hate towards you, has gone to get ammo for it.

[...]

The question is what [Israel] can do now. There is no hope for the UN Security Council - there will be no sanctions that could affect oil supply. So, however you put it - there are no sanctions possible that could stop Ahmadinejad from building nuclear weapons. [...] Perhaps there are some sort of peaceful means of convincing Iran to stop their nuclear development, but those are difficult to see now. Even a sudden death of Ahmadinejad and/or Ayatollah Khamenei would not change anything: the hatred towards Israel in Iran is shared by even the most dissenting opposition. Iranian society is in consensus [over Israel].

So, Israel cannot allow an Iranian nuclear weapon to be produced under any circumstances. Noone and nothing, it seems, can stop Iran from making that happen. So, now everyone is guessing what will really take place. The riddle is along the following lines: "What happens when an unstoppable force meets with an immovable obstacle?" In analyzing the current situation of the Iran-Israel opposition that, in all probability, means inevitable war.

So, I think it's safe to say that for all the Foreign Minister's proclamations, Russia realizes as well as anyone that it's not a "mistake" - it's an inevitability. However, they're no more interested in losing billions and facing a global economic collapse than anybody else. So, they'll play their words and stave it off while they can. However I think calling it a "proxy" conflict is ludicrous - Russia will have no more part of it than the US is willing to play a part on Israel's behalf. No presidency in the US, by the way, would change that - any US president who would be willing to let his country bear a global economic disaster for Israel's sake isn't serving his country, but is serving the Israel lobby. Or is an idiot. So, don't go pointing fingers at Russia or Obama in this case - neither, rationally, has anything to gain for their country from supporting this collision of interests. If you wish to blame anything, blame the global economy for tying everybody's hands. Otherwise while we're addicted to the oil market, noone can really do much of anything without dealing with consequences at home.

[kraznyi_oktjabr]

In Israel, they're watching the bloodthirsty proclamations from Tehran about destroying the "Zionist formation". Those kinds of conversations will make anyone nervous. [...] The country's leadership faces a difficult decision: what to do about a neighbour who instead of greeting you says "You don't have long left, you bastard", and in his spare time is busy building a rifle for "peaceful purposes"? The police refuse to do anything - formally, the neighbour is not guilty of anything. Besides, some of the policemen are his friends and business partners. And then, one day it turns out that the neighbour has already completed his rifle and, continuing to seethe hate towards you, has gone to get ammo for it.

This one puts it quite well.

Is this article available in english or did you translate it yourself?

[CCIP]

I translated it myself; the original in Russian is here: http://lenta.ru/articles/2011/11/09/nukes/

It has a neat conclusion, too...

By the way, the classic answer to that riddle is "The immovable obstacle will move, the unstoppable force will stop." So, following that logic, Israel will lose the war, but Iran's nuclear development will also stop. But that's in theory - and life, as we know, is full of surprises.

Let's hope it doesn't get to that.

[Jimbuna]

Originally Posted by CCIP

I translated it myself; the original in Russian is here: http://lenta.ru/articles/2011/11/09/nukes/

It has a neat conclusion, too...



Let's hope it doesn't get to that.

AMEN

[MH]

Originally Posted by CCIP

Otherwise while we're addicted to the oil market, noone can really do much of anything without dealing with consequences at home.

This is sort of lose/lose situation.
Any military action against Iran will cause big mess in ME and prices of oil to go high-the banking issue is not the issue i think...
Letting Iran continue with its plans imay have even bigger consequences but simply later in time.
I'm not sure about the Iranian consensus about Israel......uprising in Iran would be welcomed....

[Jimbuna]

Leave it to IOsrael and Iran to tough it out...I know who my money would be on.

[CCIP]

Originally Posted by MH

I'm not sure about the Iranian consensus about Israel......uprising in Iran would be welcomed....

It would certainly slow things down and buy everyone more time, but that's still a tricky situation. I agree that the outcome is not so guaranteed (and I say that as someone who has several friends from/in Iran, who do not support the regime there nor bear much ill will towards Israel), but there is always a chance that it will be replaced by an element no less aggressive and dangerous. In particular, the military, or rather the Republican Guard, have been coming to the forefront in Iran. It is conceivable that they might have an agenda that's quite different from the current theocracy... but then does an Iran run by a military dictatorship a better alternative? It may make Israel safer than now, but on the other hand the rest of the region would probably be worse off for it.

[1480]

Wouldn't this be an incredible chance for Russia to get up on the big stage and broker a diplomatic solution to this problem....they would gain a lot more in political capital than just sitting around criticizing Israel's posturing.