The mathematics of roving searches

[Rockin Robbins]

Originally Posted by TorpX

Not to criticize Fluckey, but iirc, he did run short of fuel on one patrol, and had to go home empty handed; the point being that roaming doesn't guarantee results, and may leave you low on fuel.

You can do all the right things and still lose. It's fundamental game theory. Fluckey was by far the most successful captain of his era of the war. The reason was his strategy: search the maximum number of square miles per day consistent with your mission. Could he search and come up empty? Sure. Was his strategy totally valid? Look at his results. Look at the results of all other boats working in his time frame. What was the difference? Search methods.

Originally Posted by TorpX

Not sure what you mean here. None of the math I've used requires quantum mechanics, string theory, or black magic.

It requires your "beautiful" vector subtraction of an unknown target running an unknown speed at an unknown heading. That, sir, is black magic. Your theory is based on a fallacy: that you can know the course and speed of your enemy before you ever encounter him. The only valid strategies must assume that you don't know that information.

Again, searching is a numbers game. You're a card counter at a blackjack table. Are the odds in your favor? Sure. Are you going to win every time? Don't make me laugh. But does an example of failure invalidate card counting in blackjack? Not on your life. Play long enough and you win. Trotting out an example of Fluckey not finding anything is like that. He played long enough and cleaned out the house.

Also, if you're running RSRDC, it's fatally broken. The enemy shipping is coming no matter what. You can sit there sinking ships in a single choke point for the entire war and they just keep coming. In the quest for historical accuracy Lurker put the war in a stratjacket. He turned a living breathing war into a wind-up clock. In reality, when a target was sunk the Japanese rerouted shipping to avoid the submarine. This made covering ground as I've laid out an absolute necessity if you wanted to sink more than one or two targets.

As flawed as it is, the unmodified game traffic does a much better job of portraying the situation from the sub skipper's point of view. Actually some of the middle TMO versions were even better because they had more variety in their encounters.