The mathematics of roving searches

[Rockin Robbins]

Originally Posted by ColonelSandersLite

No, they had compiled inteligence reports from sighting reports and radio intercepts. This aspect is mostly overlooked and missing in the game.


If raindrop theory is to be used, then that would advocate just moving at 1 knot to maximise loiter time. See my previous post.



I've started putting together a simple computer model to help out and give us some actual hard data to think on. I should have it done in a day or two.

Actually at any given time the air of a certain volume is occupied by a certain number of raindrops. In a flow that dense you encounter the same number of raindrops no matter what speed you run until you start to go faster than the time it takes the drop to fall your height. Then your horizontal velocity brings you into more raindrops than you would encounter standing still or going slower than that speed.

Let's quote Admiral Eugene Fluckey, quoting himself on page 65 of Thunder Below, in a conversation with Admiral Lockwood, who Fluckey would replace later.

"Luck is where you find it--but to find it you have to look for it. During her seventh patrol Barb was submerged every day waiting for the enemy to pass her way. It's no good. The area os search is practically nil.

"There's a big ocean out there. I search it on the surface with our high periscope up and a wide, sweeping zig plan, using as high speed as our fuel supply will allow. Now I realize that we may be sighted, depth charged, and bombed more often, but we'll find a helluva lot more targets. On our last patrol we spent only one full day submerged to check their biggest harbor.

Pretty clear that ULTRA position reports were rare. Pretty clear that Lockwood didn't micromanage his skippers. Pretty clear that he didn't mention shipping lanes. Yes, he spent every moment reading war patrol reports for the purpose of figuring out where to hunt and what mistakes to avoid. Pretty clear that Fluckey's method is what I've copied and it works. Wide, sweeping zig plan, speed highest for patrol time: 11 knots for fleet boat, longest range sensors available.

This was the most successful sub captain in WWII for innovation, turning a slow part of the war into a bonanza. Heck, he sank a train.