An interesting development

[Admiral Halsey]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

The NK once shot down a civilian airliner so why should the Chinese be different?

I wouldn't want to put that to the test.

I think you mean the Soviets once shot down a civilian airliner. Actually they shot down two of them.

[Jimbuna]

Yes, I stand corrected.

[Armistead]

This could get interesting long term



http://behindthewall.nbcnews.com/_ne...rebuke-from-us

[mapuc]

I truly hope they will find a peacefull solution to the problem

I do not dare to think what would happen...if...

Markus

[Oberon]

http://www.subsim.com/radioroom/showthread.php?t=209470

[TarJak]

Originally Posted by Oberon

http://www.subsim.com/radioroom/showthread.php?t=209470

Haven't we been talking about this for the last week or so?

[Oberon]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

The NK once shot down a civilian airliner so why should the Chinese be different?

I wouldn't want to put that to the test.

It would create too many waves for them, rock the boat too much. China is pretty smart at knowing just how far to push something, and it would be massively bad publicity for the cause if they were to shoot down a civilian airliner.

Originally Posted by Skybird

The carriers should therefore refuse to fly there and their homenations should ban Chinese carriers operating in their airspaces.

The Japanese operate fighters in the region now, not only EW. The Japanese flights shadowed by the Chinese, were 4 recce planes and 6 fighters.

The Chinese have seen recent political changes, that include a party-wanted drive in nationalism. They feel themselves strong enough, maybe they are drunk of themselves, but still they feel themselves strong. Recall the sky plane jncident from 7 or 8 years ago. Their self-confidence has not shrunk since then. And their ambitions in the region are such that they cannot accept to come out second in the race for those sea areas.

I fear it is a confrontation that most likely is set to turn hot one day.

You're putting national pride before money, do you seriously think businesses would do that?

Perhaps some elements of the party are drunk with power, but I doubt that the upper levels are, they know that they are still balancing their whole nation on the growth level of the economy which is gradually slowing down. A war right now with a major power (aka the US) would break the economy and create a second revolution from the far-left groups. There's a lot of folk in the rural regions of China that could be mobilised against the city powerbases if the Maoists got enough power behind them.

I could, however, see an incident happening. Most likely a collision, and this will raise tensions in the area even higher, especially if the Japanese or American crew survive and are taken prisoner by the PRC. I also can't rule out some hotshot jock accidentally getting overexcited and lobbing off a missile, especially if two groups of fighters start playing chicken with each other, which they likely will.

[Aktungbby]

Originally Posted by Oberon

I could, however, see an incident happening. Most likely a collision, and this will raise tensions in the area even higher, especially if the Japanese or American crew survive and are taken prisoner by the PRC. I also can't rule out some hotshot jock accidentally getting overexcited and lobbing off a missile, especially if two groups of fighters start playing chicken with each other, which they likely will.

That already happened a few years back when a hot shot chinese fighter swooped too close and went permanently into the sea and our electronic surveillance plane had to emergency land on Hainan.

[Jimbuna]

Threads merged.

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Oberon

You're putting national pride before money, do you seriously think businesses would do that?

Certainly not...! Trade is the best antidot to warmongers. But nationalism is running high in Japan and China, and the Chinese government has installed new political bodies that supervise a hardening of the foreign political course. And yesterday I read about two opinion countings a newspaper did in China (=poll), both with over one hundred thousand participants. 99% said that China must do everything to ensure that it claims national sovereignity over the disputed island and the whole sea region, and 90% accepted that China will need to wage war against Japan and crush it in order to do so. Its that old thing from WWII again, too. So call it irrational, but I fear trade has little word in these sentiments.

Today I read that the US government told American carriers to obey the Chinese demands. At the same press conference the speaker said - put into plain English - that this obedient behavior is not to indicate obedience to the Chinese demands.

Obama does what he does best: weaseling. The us probably has no other choice - war against the main supporter of the dollar system? Let the Chinese give up on the dollar, and the American debt system collapses. So Obama wants to keep the box closed, sticking to American claims in the region by posturing as the great military friend its allies can trust in, and knowing very well at the same time that America will not and cannot wage war against China over this or any other issue. It's too broke. What we can expect of this policy, we can see over Syria, and more important: Iran. Bog mouthes, loud words, plenty of empty gestures - but shying away from robust reaction while pretending one still is strong and determined. In the ME this is about to trigger a new nuclear arms race. What it will means for the Far East, remains to be seen. China still holds the trumps, no matter its inner problems, which - I agree - are mounting. Different to the Western nations now, they seem to learn and try to adopt and change. Compare that to the EU and US internal policies! Stagnation, sticking to what one already had excessively, not leaving the runaway train and staying with it until it slams into the mountain. The communists in China turn capitalistic - the Wets turns socialistic. China possibly prepares a gold standard, the West celebrates iron vows of loyalty to its debts and paper money. And Japan, having a debt level of over 2000%... ah, don't get me started on Japan. My mentor and trainer was Japanese, and he saw it coming already in the early 80s.

If a train travels on rails, its course is perfectly predictable.

[Skybird]

http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/82...l#.Upm2_cTuKri

[Aktungbby]

Originally Posted by Skybird

Obama does what he does best: weaseling. Bog mouthes, loud words, plenty of empty gestures - but shying away from robust reaction while pretending one still is strong and determined.

We say 'Bluffing' or 'Shukkin n' Jivin' in other cases... as for 'trains on a predictable course'...you betcha', especially on the Schiefflin Plan...twice!