Can we be sure the world's population will stop rising?

Gerald · 10-14-12, 10:07 AM

Quote:

Forecasters expect the world's population to reach 10bn by the year 2050 - but could the figure be a lot, lot higher?

The United Nations Population Fund, UNFPA, recently published a report describing the world's ageing population.

"Today we have one in nine persons aged 60 or over," says the UNFPA's Dr Ann Pawliczko, "but by 2050 it'll be one in five, and by that time there will be more older persons than those under 15 years."

The UN sees these statistics as a cause both for celebration because more people are living longer, and some concern because the change presents an economic and social challenge.

Dr Pawliczko would like see more countries prepare for the coming demographic shift. After all, she says, there is no doubt it is happening.

"We can be very certain about the numbers for 2050 because persons who will be aged 60 in 2050 are already born. This not speculation."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-19923200

Use condom....

Note: 13 October 2012 Last updated at 23:18 GMT

Oberon · 10-14-12, 11:42 AM

Hans Rosling has done some good talks on global statistics, including population growth. Here's a link to one of them:

How this guy can present statistics is very good.

Cybermat47 · 10-14-12, 04:45 PM

Quote:

The population size of the Earth will rise amazingly quickly when Cybermat47 turns 16.

Nice.

JU_88 · 10-14-12, 05:19 PM

Quote:

The population size of the Earth will rise amazingly quickly when Cybermat47 turns 16.

?? Where was that quoted from?

Cybermat47 · 10-14-12, 05:33 PM

My fevered imagination

Gargamel · 10-14-12, 05:41 PM

Explains a lot.

doesn't make sense, but it does explain a lot.

As to OP

Finite amount of food/resources = finite population.

Back when I did wild land firefighting (very briefly albeit), had crew chief who always aid we should let them burn, eventually it will burn up all the available fuel. May lose a few cities, but it will still burn itself out.

Cybermat47 · 10-14-12, 05:50 PM

But isn't the point of having a firefighting service to stop the fire before it burns down a city?

Gargamel · 10-14-12, 06:05 PM

That's one point of view.

CaptainMattJ. · 10-14-12, 07:21 PM

Shortages of necessities havent stopped reproduction in many places, such as the less fortunate areas of Africa and Southeast Asia. People there seem to still be reproducing regardless. Unfortunately people dont seem to care whether or not they actually have the ability to care for a child and the whole family suffers as a result. We cant support this kind of reproduction. 10 billion people would take this planet to unknown stretching points. And as time goes on, Population only booms faster.

JU_88 · 10-14-12, 07:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CaptainMattJ.

Shortages of necessities havent stopped reproduction in many places, such as the less fortunate areas of Africa and Southeast Asia. People there seem to still be reproducing regardless. Unfortunately people dont seem to care whether or not they actually have the ability to care for a child and the whole family suffers as a result. We cant support this kind of reproduction. 10 billion people would take this planet to unknown stretching points. And as time goes on, Population only booms faster.

Yep, if we dont bring our over breeding under control voluntarily nature will step in and do it for us.
Sad we always have to learn the hard way. Ill feel bad for our kids - kids, it wont be their fault.

10-15-12, 03:07 AM

Quote:

Shortages of necessities havent stopped reproduction in many places, such as the less fortunate areas of Africa and Southeast Asia. People there seem to still be reproducing regardless. Unfortunately people dont seem to care whether or not they actually have the ability to care for a child and the whole family suffers as a result. We cant support this kind of reproduction. 10 billion people would take this planet to unknown stretching points. And as time goes on, Population only booms faster

Try the link Oberon provided.
Shortages don't stop it

Betonov · 10-15-12, 03:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tribesman

Try the link Oberon provided.
Shortages don't stop it

More likely they increase it.

JU_88 · 10-15-12, 03:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tribesman

Try the link Oberon provided.
Shortages don't stop it

....Not yet they dont. But when it gets so bad that most kids dont live long enough to have kids? .....'The unknown stretching point' suggests that it can and will get much worse than mere 'shortages' what about total deprevation and resource wars?
If what we have now is clearly unstustainable, then its obviously not going to be able to continue for and another century or two is it? we have to change it.
Population growing + Enviroment deteriorating = forced decline in the end.
Mankind cant continue to 'live for the now' as though infanite growth is sustainable. if we are going to continue to embrace greed and irresponsiblity, we will get whats coming to us eventually.

I like what Oberons swedish guy is saying, but one of the biggest questions I have with it -is; How will the enviroment be able to cope with 10 billion + living by near western standards (even if we go green). Food production/consumption alone would be a huge challenge. The way the economic situation is deteriorating now, there is no way we are going to end poverty in time to level off at 9 billion.
The entire global economic model would need to be redesigned in order to accomplish what he is suggesting.
Over consumption and waste would have to be brought under control. And the 'continous growth' model of the 20th centrury - scrapped.

Aviv · 10-15-12, 05:54 AM

Interesting topic. What I find unusual is that in the time of my grandparents (c.1930- less than 100 years ago) the world population was around 2 billion. In the time of my parents (c.1960) it had risen just to 3 billion. In the time of my life (c. 1990) the world population has shot up to between 5 and 6 billion. And now in 2012 we have a world population of over 7 billion. If the number of people can rise from 2 billion to over 7 billion in less than 100 years, I expect that it will not stop, but rather increase at a faster rate.

Another worry is that the rates of birth in places like China, India and Africa, who already have very high populations is continuing to increase, while in Europe and America it is stagnating, because of the number of children of each parents.

I often think what will the world be like for my children (when I have them). Think about how things were 50 years ago to us today, how things can change so much.

Oberon · 10-15-12, 06:04 AM

There is a theory on Peak Child, in that eventually the number of children being born will level out, I hope that this is the case, because unsustainable growth is...by its name...unsustainable.

Here's another of Hans Rosling and his statistics:

10-14-12, 05:33 PM	#5
Cybermat47 Willing Webfooted Beast Join Date: Aug 2012 Location: Australia Posts: 5,408 Downloads: 300 Uploads: 23	My fevered imagination __________________ Historical TWoS Gameplay Guide: http://www.subsim.com/radioroom/showthread.php?p=2572620 Historical FotRSU Gameplay Guide: https://www.subsim.com/radioroom/sho....php?p=2713394

10-14-12, 05:41 PM	#6
Gargamel Lucky Sailor Join Date: Oct 2010 Location: Rome Posts: 4,273 Downloads: 81 Uploads: 0	Explains a lot. doesn't make sense, but it does explain a lot. As to OP Finite amount of food/resources = finite population. Back when I did wild land firefighting (very briefly albeit), had crew chief who always aid we should let them burn, eventually it will burn up all the available fuel. May lose a few cities, but it will still burn itself out. __________________ Luck is a residue of Design.

10-14-12, 05:50 PM	#7
Cybermat47 Willing Webfooted Beast Join Date: Aug 2012 Location: Australia Posts: 5,408 Downloads: 300 Uploads: 23	But isn't the point of having a firefighting service to stop the fire before it burns down a city? __________________ Historical TWoS Gameplay Guide: http://www.subsim.com/radioroom/showthread.php?p=2572620 Historical FotRSU Gameplay Guide: https://www.subsim.com/radioroom/sho....php?p=2713394

10-14-12, 06:05 PM	#8
Gargamel Lucky Sailor Join Date: Oct 2010 Location: Rome Posts: 4,273 Downloads: 81 Uploads: 0	That's one point of view. __________________ Luck is a residue of Design.

10-14-12, 07:21 PM	#9
CaptainMattJ. The Old Man Join Date: Aug 2009 Location: Sin City Posts: 1,364 Downloads: 55 Uploads: 0	Shortages of necessities havent stopped reproduction in many places, such as the less fortunate areas of Africa and Southeast Asia. People there seem to still be reproducing regardless. Unfortunately people dont seem to care whether or not they actually have the ability to care for a child and the whole family suffers as a result. We cant support this kind of reproduction. 10 billion people would take this planet to unknown stretching points. And as time goes on, Population only booms faster. __________________ A popular Government without popular information nor the means of acquiring it, is but a Prologue to a Farce or a Tragedy or perhaps both. Knowledge will forever govern ignorance, and a people who mean to be their own Governors must arm themselves with the power knowledge gives - James Madison

10-14-12, 11:42 AM	#2
Oberon Lucky Jack Join Date: Jul 2002 Posts: 25,976 Downloads: 61 Uploads: 20	Hans Rosling has done some good talks on global statistics, including population growth. Here's a link to one of them: How this guy can present statistics is very good.

10-15-12, 05:54 AM	#14
Aviv Electrician's Mate Join Date: Jul 2009 Location: Israel Posts: 132 Downloads: 237 Uploads: 0	Interesting topic. What I find unusual is that in the time of my grandparents (c.1930- less than 100 years ago) the world population was around 2 billion. In the time of my parents (c.1960) it had risen just to 3 billion. In the time of my life (c. 1990) the world population has shot up to between 5 and 6 billion. And now in 2012 we have a world population of over 7 billion. If the number of people can rise from 2 billion to over 7 billion in less than 100 years, I expect that it will not stop, but rather increase at a faster rate. Another worry is that the rates of birth in places like China, India and Africa, who already have very high populations is continuing to increase, while in Europe and America it is stagnating, because of the number of children of each parents. I often think what will the world be like for my children (when I have them). Think about how things were 50 years ago to us today, how things can change so much. __________________ "It’s Friday, Friday gotta get down on Friday, everybody’s looking forward to the weekend"

10-15-12, 06:04 AM	#15
Oberon Lucky Jack Join Date: Jul 2002 Posts: 25,976 Downloads: 61 Uploads: 20	There is a theory on Peak Child, in that eventually the number of children being born will level out, I hope that this is the case, because unsustainable growth is...by its name...unsustainable. Here's another of Hans Rosling and his statistics: