Balkan Independence Fallout

[Skybird]

Again an example illustrating the difference between what politicians want it to be, and what it really is. In other words: the difference between a simpleton's simplification and reality.

Independence Fallout

John Horvath 22.06.2006
The final breakup of Yugoslavia may not be as peaceful as many would like to think

Last week Serbia officially recognised the independence of Montenegro. This was perhaps the final nail in the coffin of Yugoslavia. Many welcomed the news as an example of how the dissolution of a country can be peaceful if executed with a certain amount of tact and patience.

Yet appearances can be misleading. The independence of Montenegro is already setting the stage for a violent future. Montenegro will be spared this violence, however Serbia will not. Much now depends on what happens with Kosovo's drive for independence.

With the separation of Montenegro from what was left of Yugoslavia, most analysts feel that Kosovo will gain independence by the fall of this year. If so, many expect that nationalist and radical forces in Serbia will subsequently be strengthened and ultimately assume power in Belgrade. This, in turn, will lend a measure of support to those within Vojvodina responsible for low-intensity ethnic cleansing of Hungarians and other non-Serb minorities.

Vojvodina has traditionally been an area where refugees and ethnic minorities from the Balkans settled. Like Kosovo, Vojvodina was an autonomous region but had its autonomy taken away during the breakup of the original Yugoslavia. Thus, an independent Kosovo would threaten to reopen old wounds and destabilize the region. If Kosovo became independent, it can be expected that a large number of Serbs who will leave Kosovo as a result will end up in Vojvodina. In the long run, this doesn't bode well for the future as demographic and ethnic pressures will mean more Hungarians and other nationalities from the region will be compelled to leave the area.

Already, it's apparent that a substantial -- and violent – demographic shift is underway in this northern province of Serbia. For the better part of a year, if not longer, attacks against non-Serb minorities has been on the increase. These attacks have at first been targeted at Hungarian youths, with Serb gangs beating up random individuals – often to the point that hospitalization is required. Gradually, however, this violence began to spread, with individuals of other ethnic minorities as the target. The authorities, meanwhile, have mostly turned a blind eye to what has been happening; when some kind of action is taken, it's most often in the form of a slap on the wrist.

For those familiar with the Balkan wars of the past, the situation in Vojvodina is increasingly looking like the 1990s all over again. Although news of violence from Vojvodina has since subsided a little, attacks still continue.

While the violence in Vojvodina has become a political issue within the EU, no attempt has been made to understand the reasons behind it. Many dismiss the situation has simply the way most Serbs (and those who live in the Balkans) are: primitive racists prone to violence. Sadly, for many it's a lot easier to reduce a problem to such a simple formula rather than to explore the complexities of the situation.

Delving into the issue, however, we find that what is happening in Vojvodina is in large part a result of the failed policies pursued by the US and NATO in their attempt to pacify the region. According to UN figures, at least a quarter of a million people from different ethnic minorities -- namely Roma, Serbs, and Ashkali -- have been driven out of Kosovo by Albanian extremists since being "liberated" by the US-NATO bombing campaign. For the Serb minority driven from Kosovo, both during the war and afterward, the authorities in Belgrade attempted to solve the problem by resettling them in other areas, usually homes abandoned by Croats who were driven out or who had fled during the war.

Yet a great number of refugees were also resettled in Vojvodina. It's primarily this resettlement which is the root cause of the violence in the area. Many refugees harbour bitter memories and feelings toward all ethnic minorities because of the way they were treated in Kosovo. Others, taking cue from the hypocrisy of western powers, feel that ethnic cleansing is an appropriate solution to problems in this new world order. Hence, if Kosovo is to be cleansed of all non-Albanian minorities, then Serbia likewise should cleanse itself of all non-Serb minorities.

There is also a political dimension to all of this, which helps to explain the lack of commitment on the part of the Serb authorities to seriously deal with the violence going on in Vojvodina. That is, as Serbia hopes to one day join the EU, an ethnically diverse region like Vojvodina may lead to a further erosion of state power, as calls for autonomy would carry much more weight within the EU than without. Thus, by making sure that the ethnic balance is tipped in favour of the Serb minority -- both through a resettlement program and allowing other minorities to flee violence that it has turned a blind eye to – the Serb authorities are, in effect, preparing themselves for EU accession.

While it's easy to put all the blame for what is happening in Vojvodina squarely on the shoulders of the Serbs, in the end much of the responsibility must be shared by western powers, namely the members of NATO -- and in particular the US. The concept of humanitarian warfare, which was used as a justification for the war in Kosovo, is not only an oxymoron but a dismal failure.

The most disastrous outcome of this faulty concept is yet to come. Having used international pressure to weaken the Serb state, ethnic Albanian leaders are now poised for their final push toward independence. If and when independence is granted to Kosovo, it would be a ignominious victory for the politics -- and practice -- of ethnic cleansing. Unfortunately, it looks as though the battle of the Balkans isn't over -- just yet.

http://www.telepolis.de/r4/artikel/22/22948/1.html